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Jerry6666

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- Jerry6666Jerry6666
  ·2021-05-29
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- Jerry6666Jerry6666
  ·2021-05-18
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  What signals did U.S. money supply growth slow in March?
  美国M2增长率在2021年3月达到了历史新高，比2月的26.9%增长了24.2%。在连续三个月触及历史新高之后，美国货币供应增长在3月份放缓，降至10个月来的低点。虽然去年量化宽松和美联储购买资产
  What signals did U.S. money supply growth slow in March?
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- Jerry6666Jerry6666
  ·2021-05-18
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  Gundlach: The Fed has been manipulating markets for a long time
  现在距离30年美债收益率到顶还差得很远，这是一个值得警惕的风险因素。 DoubleLine Capital的创始人兼首席执行官杰弗里·冈拉克（Jeffrey Gundlach）表示： “ 美联
  Gundlach: The Fed has been manipulating markets for a long time
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- Jerry6666Jerry6666
  ·2021-05-16
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- Jerry6666Jerry6666
  ·2021-05-16
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- Jerry6666Jerry6666
  ·2021-05-05
  ???
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- Jerry6666Jerry6666
  ·2021-04-29
  Long term holding
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23:03","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"What signals did U.S. money supply growth slow in March?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176256005","media":"金十数据","summary":"美国M2增长率在2021年3月达到了历史新高，比2月的26.9%增长了24.2%。\n\n在连续三个月触及历史新高之后，美国货币供应增长在3月份放缓，降至10个月来的低点。虽然去年量化宽松和美联储购买资产","content":"<p>The U.S. M2 growth rate reached an all-time high in March 2021, increasing 24.2% from 26.9% in February. After hitting record highs for three consecutive months, U.S. money supply growth slowed in March to a 10-month low. Although the introduction of stimulus packages such as quantitative easing and the Federal Reserve's asset purchase last year led to high growth of money supply, the growth of money supply seems to be slowing down at present.</p><p>In March 2021, the U.S. money supply grew 34.1% year over year, down slightly from 39.1% in February and up from 11.3% in March 2020. March data showed that the current high growth of the money supply has lasted for 12 months.</p><p>Money supply growth last year was the highest in history, close to that of the 1970s. This growth trend is likely to continue, with the United States now in an economic crisis that has lasted for a year. From March to mid-September, about 1 million people filed for unemployment benefits in the U.S. every week.</p><p>Although the number of applications for unemployment benefits finally dropped below 500,000 by the beginning of May 2021, at present, more than 3.8 million unemployed people are still receiving unemployment benefits, and the total number has not fallen back to the level before the outbreak after one year of epidemic lockdown.</p><p>The Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury Department are also continuously introducing policies related to \"stimulating\" the economy, such as providing subsidies for unemployed workers and providing liquidity for financial institutions. The Federal Reserve has been buying trillions of dollars in assets, including government debt, driving new money creation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86529de5973bb9b3bfa0106111c9b8c8\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The picture above shows Ross<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCR\">Bud</a>-The Salerno Money Supply (TMS) indicator, which provides a better measure of fluctuations in the money supply than the M2. This measure of money supply, unlike the M2, includes Treasury deposits with the Federal Reserve (excluding short-term deposits, traveler's checks, and retail money funds).</p><p>This indicator shows that the U.S. M2 growth rate reached an all-time high in March 2021, up 24.2% from 26.9% in February. Last March, M2 grew by 10.1%.</p><p>What does that mean?</p><p>Growth in the money supply is often a valid measure of economic activity. In times of economic boom, commercial banks lend more and the money supply tends to grow rapidly. And when money supply growth slows, the economy may also be in recession.</p><p>In addition, the money supply often begins to grow slowly before the economy begins to decline. As a recession approaches, the TMS growth rate typically climbs and exceeds the M2 growth rate, for example in the first few months of the 2002 and 2009 crises, and a similar scenario before the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020.</p><p>In sync with the growth of the U.S. money supply is the growth of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. After initial balance sheet growth in late 2019, the Fed's total assets soared to nearly $7.2 trillion in June and have rarely fallen below the $7 trillion mark since.</p><p>The size of the U.S. balance sheet is now heading towards an all-time high of $8 trillion. These new asset-purchase programs have pushed the Fed's balance sheet far more than the stimulus package during the Great Recession. The Fed's assets are now more than 600% higher than they were before the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a31ffc60b90ea90e7bc81e64f7df40\" tg-width=\"687\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It should be noted that some factors are currently inhibiting the growth rate of money supply. For example, year-over-year growth in U.S. commercial and industrial loans has been slowing since February, with loan growth falling from 10.1% in February to 3.9% in March, and loan growth has turned negative in April. If lending activity slows or declines, this will put downward pressure on money supply growth.</p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What signals did U.S. money supply growth slow in March?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat signals did U.S. money supply growth slow in March?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-18 23:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The U.S. M2 growth rate reached an all-time high in March 2021, increasing 24.2% from 26.9% in February. After hitting record highs for three consecutive months, U.S. money supply growth slowed in March to a 10-month low. Although the introduction of stimulus packages such as quantitative easing and the Federal Reserve's asset purchase last year led to high growth of money supply, the growth of money supply seems to be slowing down at present.</p><p>In March 2021, the U.S. money supply grew 34.1% year over year, down slightly from 39.1% in February and up from 11.3% in March 2020. March data showed that the current high growth of the money supply has lasted for 12 months.</p><p>Money supply growth last year was the highest in history, close to that of the 1970s. This growth trend is likely to continue, with the United States now in an economic crisis that has lasted for a year. From March to mid-September, about 1 million people filed for unemployment benefits in the U.S. every week.</p><p>Although the number of applications for unemployment benefits finally dropped below 500,000 by the beginning of May 2021, at present, more than 3.8 million unemployed people are still receiving unemployment benefits, and the total number has not fallen back to the level before the outbreak after one year of epidemic lockdown.</p><p>The Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury Department are also continuously introducing policies related to \"stimulating\" the economy, such as providing subsidies for unemployed workers and providing liquidity for financial institutions. The Federal Reserve has been buying trillions of dollars in assets, including government debt, driving new money creation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86529de5973bb9b3bfa0106111c9b8c8\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The picture above shows Ross<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCR\">Bud</a>-The Salerno Money Supply (TMS) indicator, which provides a better measure of fluctuations in the money supply than the M2. This measure of money supply, unlike the M2, includes Treasury deposits with the Federal Reserve (excluding short-term deposits, traveler's checks, and retail money funds).</p><p>This indicator shows that the U.S. M2 growth rate reached an all-time high in March 2021, up 24.2% from 26.9% in February. Last March, M2 grew by 10.1%.</p><p>What does that mean?</p><p>Growth in the money supply is often a valid measure of economic activity. In times of economic boom, commercial banks lend more and the money supply tends to grow rapidly. And when money supply growth slows, the economy may also be in recession.</p><p>In addition, the money supply often begins to grow slowly before the economy begins to decline. As a recession approaches, the TMS growth rate typically climbs and exceeds the M2 growth rate, for example in the first few months of the 2002 and 2009 crises, and a similar scenario before the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020.</p><p>In sync with the growth of the U.S. money supply is the growth of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. After initial balance sheet growth in late 2019, the Fed's total assets soared to nearly $7.2 trillion in June and have rarely fallen below the $7 trillion mark since.</p><p>The size of the U.S. balance sheet is now heading towards an all-time high of $8 trillion. These new asset-purchase programs have pushed the Fed's balance sheet far more than the stimulus package during the Great Recession. The Fed's assets are now more than 600% higher than they were before the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a31ffc60b90ea90e7bc81e64f7df40\" tg-width=\"687\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It should be noted that some factors are currently inhibiting the growth rate of money supply. For example, year-over-year growth in U.S. commercial and industrial loans has been slowing since February, with loan growth falling from 10.1% in February to 3.9% in March, and loan growth has turned negative in April. If lending activity slows or declines, this will put downward pressure on money supply growth.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/74683\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62b889d823b16eb88fde7821485a6ea1","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/74683","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176256005","content_text":"美国M2增长率在2021年3月达到了历史新高，比2月的26.9%增长了24.2%。\n\n在连续三个月触及历史新高之后，美国货币供应增长在3月份放缓，降至10个月来的低点。虽然去年量化宽松和美联储购买资产等刺激方案的出台，令货币供应实现高增长，但目前货币供应增长似乎出现了放缓的趋势。\n2021年3月，美国货币供应量同比增长34.1%，比2月份的39.1%略有下降，比2020年3月的11.3%有所上升。3月份数据显示，目前货币供应量的高增长已持续了12个月。\n去年的货币供应增长率是史上最高的，接近于1970年代时期。这个增长趋势很可能会继续下去，目前美国已陷入经济危机持续一年。从3月到9月中旬，美国每周约有100万人申请失业救济。\n虽然到2021年5月初，申请失业救济最终降至50万人以下，但目前依然累计有380多万失业人员领取失业救济，总人数在疫情封锁一年之后也未能回落到疫情爆发前的水平。\n美联储和美国财政部也在持续出台“刺激”经济的相关政策，例如为失业工人提供补贴，以及为金融机构提供流动性。一直以来，美联储在购买数万亿美元包括政府债务的资产，推动了新的货币创造。\n\n上图显示了罗斯巴德-萨勒诺货币供应量（TMS）指标，这个指标提供了比M2更好的反映货币供应波动的度量。这种衡量货币供应量的指标与M2不同，它包含了财政部在美联储的存款（不包括短期存款、旅行支票和零售货币基金）。\n这个指标显示，美国M2增长率在2021年3月达到了历史新高，比2月的26.9%增长了24.2%。去年3月，M2增长了10.1%。\n这意味着什么？\n货币供应量的增长通常是衡量经济活动的有效指标。在经济繁荣时期，商业银行会发放更多贷款，货币供应往往会迅速增长。而当货币供应增长放缓，经济也可能陷入了衰退。\n另外，货币供应量往往在经济开始衰退之前就开始缓慢增长。随着经济衰退的临近，TMS增长率通常会攀升，并超过M2增长率，例如发生在2002年和2009年危机的前几个月，类似的情况还有2020年疫情爆发之前。\n与美国货币供应增长同步的是美联储资产负债表的增长。在2019年末初始资产负债表增长之后，美联储总资产在6月份飙升至近7.2万亿美元，此后很少跌破7万亿美元关口。\n美国资产负债表规模目前正朝着8万亿美元的历史新高迈进。这些新的资产购买计划对美联储资产负债表的推动，远远超过了大衰退（Great Recession）期间刺激计划的程度。美联储的资产现在比2008年金融危机前增加了超过600%。\n\n需要注意的是，目前一些因素正在抑制货币供应增速。例如，自2月份以来，美国商业和工业贷款同比增速一直放缓，贷款增速从2月份的10.1%降至3月份的3.9%，且贷款增长在4月份已转为负。如果贷款活动放缓或下降，这将给货币供应增长带来下行压力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"DOG":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"QID":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SDOW":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5053,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":194804242,"gmtCreate":1621351280886,"gmtModify":1704356307263,"author":{"id":"3582603564454110","authorId":"3582603564454110","name":"Jerry6666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/341ac0d8c7e78a01f49f688b745e56f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582603564454110","authorIdStr":"3582603564454110"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/194804242","repostId":"1167406373","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167406373","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621350147,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1167406373?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-18 23:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Gundlach: The Fed has been manipulating markets for a long time","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167406373","media":"金十数据","summary":"现在距离30年美债收益率到顶还差得很远，这是一个值得警惕的风险因素。\n\nDoubleLine Capital的创始人兼首席执行官杰弗里·冈拉克（Jeffrey Gundlach）表示：\n\n “\n 美联","content":"<p>Now, it is still far from the peak of the 30-year U.S. bond yield, which is a risk factor worth vigilance. Jeffrey Gundlach, founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital, said:</p><p>“<b>The Federal Reserve has been manipulating markets for a long time.</b>Asset valuations are already very, very high due to the alarming amount of stimulus. It's like a law of physics that there's been some connection between the Fed's expanding balance sheet and the S&P 500 since the Fed began its quantitative easing. If you divide the market capitalization of the S&P 500 by the Fed's balance sheet, it looks like a constant. Even if the stock market is historically valued at a high level, it is still below the average compared to bonds. \" Last Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that April's CPI was up 0.8% from March, well ahead of market expectations. Excluding food and energy, core inflation rose 0.9% from the previous month, the biggest monthly increase since 1982. Additionally, CPI rose 4.2% in April compared to the same period last year, a faster-than-expected increase and the biggest increase since September 2008.</p><p>April CPI was higher than DoubleLine's forecast. DoubleLine Capital's models predict that inflation could rise in the coming months and could peak in July, Gundlach said.</p><p>\"If inflation continues to move higher, then there will be concerns about whether inflation is temporary.<b>Now, it is still far from the peak of the 30-year U.S. bond yield, which is a risk factor worth vigilance.</b>\"In terms of opportunity, Gundlach, who had been very bullish on commodities, said that short-term commodities had risen too much.</p><p>Gundlach believes the dollar could rise by the end of the year.</p><p>Since January, Gundlack's advice has been to hold floating-rate corporate bonds, such as bank loans, such as the InvescoSenior Loan (BKLN) ETTF.</p><p>\"BKLN was basically a net outflow in 2020, because people thought it would be zero interest rate for a long time, but now people are beginning to change their thinking and feel that short-end interest rates will eventually go up. Bank loans have the same term or longer term than other investment-grade bonds, so I prefer bank loans.\" DoubleLine also recently bought a European stock for the first time. Gundlach said:</p><p>\"We've never owned any European stocks. We don't like negative interest rates in Europe, and there are various structural issues in the eurozone. DoubleLine's long-term view is that the dollar is lower, which is a positive factor for European stocks. European stocks have fared largely the same or slightly better than U.S. stocks this year. This is another trend that is changing. Just like the Nasdaq no longer outperforms the S&P 500, all of a sudden, non-US stocks are starting to rise and European stocks are starting to outperform slightly. \" While premature, Gundlach is long-term bullish on emerging market stocks.</p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Gundlach: The Fed has been manipulating markets for a long time</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGundlach: The Fed has been manipulating markets for a long time\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-18 23:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Now, it is still far from the peak of the 30-year U.S. bond yield, which is a risk factor worth vigilance. Jeffrey Gundlach, founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital, said:</p><p>“<b>The Federal Reserve has been manipulating markets for a long time.</b>Asset valuations are already very, very high due to the alarming amount of stimulus. It's like a law of physics that there's been some connection between the Fed's expanding balance sheet and the S&P 500 since the Fed began its quantitative easing. If you divide the market capitalization of the S&P 500 by the Fed's balance sheet, it looks like a constant. Even if the stock market is historically valued at a high level, it is still below the average compared to bonds. \" Last Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that April's CPI was up 0.8% from March, well ahead of market expectations. Excluding food and energy, core inflation rose 0.9% from the previous month, the biggest monthly increase since 1982. Additionally, CPI rose 4.2% in April compared to the same period last year, a faster-than-expected increase and the biggest increase since September 2008.</p><p>April CPI was higher than DoubleLine's forecast. DoubleLine Capital's models predict that inflation could rise in the coming months and could peak in July, Gundlach said.</p><p>\"If inflation continues to move higher, then there will be concerns about whether inflation is temporary.<b>Now, it is still far from the peak of the 30-year U.S. bond yield, which is a risk factor worth vigilance.</b>\"In terms of opportunity, Gundlach, who had been very bullish on commodities, said that short-term commodities had risen too much.</p><p>Gundlach believes the dollar could rise by the end of the year.</p><p>Since January, Gundlack's advice has been to hold floating-rate corporate bonds, such as bank loans, such as the InvescoSenior Loan (BKLN) ETTF.</p><p>\"BKLN was basically a net outflow in 2020, because people thought it would be zero interest rate for a long time, but now people are beginning to change their thinking and feel that short-end interest rates will eventually go up. Bank loans have the same term or longer term than other investment-grade bonds, so I prefer bank loans.\" DoubleLine also recently bought a European stock for the first time. Gundlach said:</p><p>\"We've never owned any European stocks. We don't like negative interest rates in Europe, and there are various structural issues in the eurozone. DoubleLine's long-term view is that the dollar is lower, which is a positive factor for European stocks. European stocks have fared largely the same or slightly better than U.S. stocks this year. This is another trend that is changing. Just like the Nasdaq no longer outperforms the S&P 500, all of a sudden, non-US stocks are starting to rise and European stocks are starting to outperform slightly. \" While premature, Gundlach is long-term bullish on emerging market stocks.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/74695\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/74695","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167406373","content_text":"现在距离30年美债收益率到顶还差得很远，这是一个值得警惕的风险因素。\n\nDoubleLine Capital的创始人兼首席执行官杰弗里·冈拉克（Jeffrey Gundlach）表示：\n\n “\n 美联储长期以来一直在操纵市场。由于数量惊人的刺激，资产估值已经非常非常高。自从美联储开始量化宽松以来，美联储不断扩大资产负债表与标准普尔500指数之间就存在着某种联系，这就像是物理定律。如果将标普500的市值除以美联储的资产负债表，看起来就是一个常数。即使从历史水平来看股市估值很高，但跟债券比相比，还是低于均值。”\n\n上周三，美国劳工统计局报告称，4月的CPI比3月份上涨了0.8％，远远超出市场预期。除去食品和能源，核心通货膨胀率较上个月上涨了0.9％，是自1982年以来的最大单月涨幅。此外，与去年同期相比，4月份CPI上涨了4.2％，增幅快于预期，是自2008年9月以来的最大涨幅。\n4月CPI高于DoubleLine的预测。冈拉克说，DoubleLine Capital的模型预测通货膨胀率可能在未来几个月内上升，并可能在7月达到顶峰。\n\n “如果通胀继续走高，那么人们会担心通胀是否是暂时的。\n 现在距离30年美债收益率到顶还差得很远，这是一个值得警惕的风险因素。”\n\n在机会方面，曾非常看好大宗商品的冈拉克表示，短期商品涨幅过大。\n冈拉克认为，到年底美元可能会有所上涨。\n自一月份以来，冈拉克的建议是持有浮动利率的公司债券，如银行贷款，如the InvescoSenior Loan (BKLN) ETTF。\n\n “2020年BKLN基本都是净流出，因为人们认为在相当长的时期为零利率，但现在人们开始转变思路，觉得短端利率最终也会上行。银行贷款与其他投资级债券比，具有相同期限或更长的期限，因此，我倾向银行贷款。”\n\nDoubleLine最近还首次买入了欧洲股票。冈拉克称：\n\n “我们从未持有过任何欧洲股票。我们不喜欢欧洲的负利率，并且欧元区有各种结构性问题。DoubleLine的长期观点是美元走低，这对欧洲股票来说是个利好因素。欧洲股市今年的表现与美国股市基本相同或略好。这是另外一个正在改变的趋势。就像纳斯达克指数不再跑赢标准普尔500指数一样，突然之间，非美股市开始涨了，欧洲股市开始略胜一筹。”\n\n虽然还为时过早，但冈拉克长期看好新兴市场股票。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3784,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192355407,"gmtCreate":1621150955809,"gmtModify":1704353422427,"author":{"id":"3582603564454110","authorId":"3582603564454110","name":"Jerry6666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/341ac0d8c7e78a01f49f688b745e56f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582603564454110","authorIdStr":"3582603564454110"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192355407","repostId":"2135899509","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4295,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192355133,"gmtCreate":1621150888022,"gmtModify":1704353421457,"author":{"id":"3582603564454110","authorId":"3582603564454110","name":"Jerry6666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/341ac0d8c7e78a01f49f688b745e56f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582603564454110","authorIdStr":"3582603564454110"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192355133","repostId":"2135498979","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5118,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":102100409,"gmtCreate":1620181017001,"gmtModify":1704339835190,"author":{"id":"3582603564454110","authorId":"3582603564454110","name":"Jerry6666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/341ac0d8c7e78a01f49f688b745e56f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582603564454110","authorIdStr":"3582603564454110"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/102100409","repostId":"1143138708","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3393,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109668881,"gmtCreate":1619692163243,"gmtModify":1704728085654,"author":{"id":"3582603564454110","authorId":"3582603564454110","name":"Jerry6666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/341ac0d8c7e78a01f49f688b745e56f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582603564454110","authorIdStr":"3582603564454110"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Long 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