Tesla, Dogecoin And Bitcoin: Mysteries Untold

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Tesla, Dogecoin And Bitcoin: Mysteries Untold

seekingalpha2021-05-18

Summary Some of Elon Musk's and Tesla's moves on Dogecoin and Bitcoin are mysterious. There is however potential for a development which could impact the share price strongly. It's also a mystery why...

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Jazling
·2021-05-18
Comment pls
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pyrolysis
·2021-05-18
FUD
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Ultraviolet
·2021-05-18
Boo
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WarSlasher
·2021-05-18
Musk and mars manipulation
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- WarSlasher:
  manipulations
  2021-05-19
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- xemrunx:
  How on earth can crypto price fluctuates up & down based on Elon Musk’s saying? The world is insane!
  2021-05-18
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KAHHUAT
·2021-05-18
Wow
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TestWater
·2021-05-18
The Bitcoin isn't worth anything...it is just waste the energy...
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Goldlim
·2021-05-18
Please help to like and comment
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- Jazling:
  Comment pls
  2021-05-18
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- YPT:
  Ok
  2021-05-18
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- Leo_T:
  k
  2021-05-18
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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla, Dogecoin And Bitcoin: Mysteries Untold\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-18 15:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429442-tesla-dogecoin-and-bitcoin-mysteries-untold><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nSome of Elon Musk's and Tesla's moves on Dogecoin and Bitcoin are mysterious.\nThere is however potential for a development which could impact the share price strongly.\nIt's also a mystery why...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429442-tesla-dogecoin-and-bitcoin-mysteries-untold\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"FT_SY_MBT","symbol_name":"微型CME比特币","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429442-tesla-dogecoin-and-bitcoin-mysteries-untold","article_id":"1170122575","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170122575","pubTimestamp":1621323334,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Summary\n\nSome of Elon Musk's and Tesla's moves on Dogecoin and Bitcoin are mysterious.\nThere is howe","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"Grayscale Bitcoin Trust","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"translate_title":"Tesla,Dogecoin和比特币：说不出的谜团","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"BTCmain":0.9,"MBTmain":0.9,"XBTmain":0.9,"GBTC":0.9,"TSLA":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nSome of Elon Musk's and Tesla's moves on Dogecoin and Bitcoin are mysterious.\nThere is however potential for a development which could impact the share price strongly.\nIt's also a mystery why Tesla doesn't make this development happen immediately.\n\nPhoto by Win McNamee/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nThere's been a lot of action around Tesla (TSLA), Elon Musk, and cryptocurrencies lately. In my view, the action so far is a mystery which will, in due time, reveal yet another hype angle for Tesla. That is a development which can be used to push the stock higher. In this case, the development might even actually create value for Tesla very rapidly.\nYou see, Elon Musk and Tesla have been on the news due to their involvement with cryptocurrencies, namely Bitcoin (BTC-USD) and Dogecoin (DOGE-USD).\nThe serious part of this involvement has been Tesla’s $1.5 billion investment into Bitcoin, while Elon Musk’s involvement with Dogecoin seems more \"for fun.\" However, that too has been changing as of late, with Elon actually claiming to be working with Dogecoin developers to improve transaction efficiency - implyingserious interest in using the cryptocurrency seriously.\nBoth the involvement with Bitcoin and Dogecoin have created some strange mysteries, which I will explore in this article. Be prepared, this is going to be a very long article, though filled with rare findings.\nTesla Buys Bitcoin, Then Drops It\nIn Q1 2021, Tesla bought Bitcoin. The 2020 10-K was the first SEC filing acknowledging the acquisition, though Elon Musk tweeted about it earlier.\n\n In January 2021, we updated our investment policy to provide us with more flexibility to further diversify and maximize returns on our cash that is not required to maintain adequate operating liquidity. As part of the policy, which was duly approved by the Audit Committee of our Board of Directors, we may invest a portion of such cash in certain alternative reserve assets including digital assets, gold bullion, gold exchange-traded funds and other assets as specified in the future. Thereafter, we invested an aggregate $1.50 billion in bitcoin under this policy and may acquire and hold digital assets from time to time orlongterm. Moreover, we expect to begin accepting bitcoin as a form of payment for our products in the near future, subject to applicable laws and initially on a limited basis, which we may or may not liquidate upon receipt.\n\nAn interesting part of this risk disclosure goes as follows:\n\n Moreover, digital assets are currently considered indefinite-lived intangible assets under applicable accounting rules, meaning that any decrease in their fair values below our carrying values for such assets at any time subsequent to their acquisition will require us to recognize impairment charges, whereas we may make no upward revisions for any market price increases until a sale, which may adversely affect our operating results in any period in which such impairment occurs. Moreover, there is no guarantee that future changes in GAAP will not require us to change the way we account for digital assets held by us.\n\nThis means that if Bitcoin trades down below Tesla’s cost basis, Tesla will recognize an impairment on the Bitcoin position. However, if it trades up, Tesla cannot recognize the unrealized gain. It can only recognize a gain when it sells, which it partially did during Q1 2021, leading to such realized gain.\nIn its most recent 10-Q, Tesla clarified when it would recognize an impairment on the Bitcoin position. The criteria is very strict, impossibly strict – Tesla will use the lowest market price since acquiring Bitcoin to assume an impairment on the position (italics emphasis is mine):\n\n We determine the fair value of our bitcoin on a nonrecurring basis in accordance with ASC 820, Fair Value Measurement, based on quoted prices on the activeexchange(s)thatwe have determined is its principal market for bitcoin (Level 1 inputs). We perform an analysis each quarter to identify whether events or changes in circumstances, principally decreases in the quoted prices on active exchanges, indicate that it is more likely than not that our digital assets are impaired.\n In determining if an impairment has occurred, we consider the lowest market price of one bitcoin quoted on the active exchange since acquiring the bitcoin. If the then current carrying value of a digital asset exceeds the fair value so determined, an impairment loss has occurred with respect to those digital assets in the amount equal to the difference between their carrying values and the price determined.\n\nIndeed, while Tesla realized a $128 million gain from selling Bitcoin during Q1 2021, it also recorded a $27 millionimpairment. That is, Bitcoin must have, very temporarily, traded below Tesla’s cost basis. This led to an impairment even as Tesla’s fair market value for the Bitcoin it still holds then stood at $2.48 billion.\n\n Note 3 – Digital Assets, NetDuring the three months ended March 31, 2021, we purchased and received $1.50 billion of Bitcoin. During the three months ended March 31, 2021, we recorded $27 million of impairment losses on bitcoin. We also realized gains of $128 million through sales during the three months ended March 31, 2021. Such gains are presented net of impairment losses in Restructuring and other in the consolidated statement of operations. As of March 31, 2021, the carrying value of our Bitcoin held was $1.33 billion, which reflects cumulative impairments of $27 million. The fair market value of bitcoin held as of March 31, 2021,was$2.48 billion.\n\nA Matter Of Curiosity - Tesla's Bitcoin Cost Basis\nBased on the available data, we can try to guess Tesla’s cost basis, as well as the price it sold Bitcoin at. Consider the following:\n\nTesla acquired $1.5 billion in Bitcoin.\nTesla impaired this acquisition by $0.027 billion.\nTesla had $1.33 billion in Bitcoin at EOQ (End Of Quarter), on a cost basis.\nThus, Tesla had $1.357 billion in Bitcoin at EOQ, on a cost basis + the impairment.\nSo, Tesla sold $0.143 billion in bitcoin ($1.5 billion at inception - $1.357 billion held at EOQ if we exclude theimpairment).\nTesla sold these $0.143 billion in bitcoin at a gain of $0.128 billion. So, it sold that bitcoin amount for $0.271 billion, an 89.5% gain.\nTesla’s EOQ Bitcoin at market value was $2.48 billion.\nAnd Bitcoin stood at ~$58,874 at EOQ (this is not exact, so it will introduce some error).\n\nSo:\n\nTesla’s cost basis per Bitcoin is the (bitcoin+impairment on a cost basis at EOQ)/(EOQ bitcoin at market value) * Bitcoin price at EOQ. That’s $1.357/$2.48 * $58,874 = $32,214 (there will be a bit of error due to the Bitcoin price considered for EOQ).\nTesla’s current (impaired) cost basis per bitcoin is (bitcoin at cost basis at EOQ)/(EOQ bitcoin at market value) * Bitcoin price at EOQ = $31,574.\nTesla sold bitcoin at an 89.5% gain over the original cost basis, so it sold around $32,214 * 1.895 = $61,050.\n\nAnyway, this is mostly a curiosity.\nThe First Mystery\nFast forward to two days ago, and Tesla stopped accepting Bitcoin in payment but didn’t sell its existing Bitcoin hoard, as tweeted by Elon Musk:\n\nAs we can immediately understand, the environmental excuse given was already widely known well before Tesla even started accepting Bitcoin. For instance, I already had written about it in my Bitcoin Series (which I highly recommend reading in its entirety), both a long time ago (four years ago, \"Bitcoin Series #4 - The Bitcoin Arms Race\"), and in more detail recently (\"Bitcoin Series #8 - Bitcoin Is Not The Future\"). So had many others, even earlier.\nThe excuse for dropping Bitcoin acceptance is thus something of a mystery. It is so for several reasons, namely...\nBecause (Bitcoin Only) Moving To Sustainable Energy Is Nearly Impossible\nThe Tesla claim regarding a transition to more sustainable energy is a red herring. Why? Because electricity is fungible. Even a company contracting power exclusively from renewable sources (as isen vogue) isn’t really just using renewable sources. The company only makes the rest of electricity usage have a dirtier mix, because of not having access to those renewable sources the company is contracting away.\nThe only time this isn’t false is when renewables are injecting so much energy into the grid (due to wind, solar, and little electricity demand) that electricity prices go negative. At that point, it can be said that there’s excess electricity in the grid, and any taker isn’t making it dirtier. But crypto mining isn’t an intermittent activity, while these events are reasonably rare and intermittent.\nThis idea has been put forth in some misleading ways. For instance, there’s been some widespread quoting of a study stating 76% of mining operators “use renewable energysources.” However, to qualify as “using renewable sources” just takes some renewable energy being present in the electricity generation mix. Of course, nearly all electricity pools have some renewable sources, so nearly everyone can claim to use some renewable energy. That 24% couldn’t claim any use of renewable energy is more of a surprise.\nThe same study does say that 39% of energy consumed comes from renewable sources, which is a more relevant statistic. But this statistic also suffers from the same problem I described before:Electricityis fungible. Unless the electricity is being wasted or generation was built on purpose to mine cryptocurrencies, then mining is displacing other uses and thus making other uses dirtier, which is the same as being dirty itself. Finally, I could also nitpick and say that even building renewable energy sources consumes energy and creates CO2, but that would be going too far.\nIt was not a coincidence that the closure of a single huge coal mine in China temporarily wiped out one-third of all Bitcoin mining. And of course, that’s not the only coal-powered generation being used to mine Bitcoin. That alone ought to be enough for people to question any number looking like \"76%renewables.\"\nAlso, saying that fueling EVs or launching rockets consumes energy and creates CO2 is another red herring (this one lobbied at Elon Musk for dropping Bitcoin). This is so because these are useful activities. It’s like breathing, it creates CO2 but no one is going to criticize that since it’s useful (unlike nearly all cryptocurrency activity).\nA final misconception is that banking consumes a lot of energy itself. Or gold mining. A direct comparison is often made, which makes no sense. The only viable comparison is comparing the energy use of a single transaction. It’s in that regard that Bitcoin is now up to 1.18 million times less efficient than something like the Visa network. Per transaction.\nSource:Digiconomist.net\nMind you, that’s for each Bitcoin transaction, and nearly all those transactions are speculative in nature – not useful.\nBecause a 100x or 1000x improvement wouldn't change things.\nThere's also a claim about moving to a more efficient cryptocurrency. The problem here is: Improvingon Bitcoin by 100x or 1000x (lower than 1%, as stated per Elon) would still fall far from solving the problem. It would just make the resulting cryptocurrency be 1,000x to 10,000x worse than the VISA network(instead of 1,000,000x worse).\nI must, however, say that there are a couple of cryptocurrencies which might be efficient enough to rival with the VISA network, though I didn’t go over the implications for their security and thus won’t name them. These cryptocurrencies don't include Dogecoin (and the current Dogecoin power consumption will increase aggressively to follow the market capitalization).\nAnyway, Musk is right in recognizing the Bitcoin impact and stopping its use. However, just holding Bitcoin is, arguably, contributing to this state of affairs. And Tesla continued to hold its Bitcoin.\nElon Musk is a bit wrong in saying that a transitiontowardmore sustainable energy sources would solve the problem, though, for the reasons stated – unless the entire world transitioned to such sources, Bitcoin would still be making the world much dirtier than it would otherwise be. He’s also wrong in thinking that improving things by 100x (or 1000x) would be enough to come close to solving the underlying problem.\nThus, these claims to stop accepting Bitcoin are somewhat mysterious.\nBut The Real Mystery Is ...\nThe main problemis -Musk knew already! So why did Tesla buy Bitcoin and started accepting it? And after buying, why did it stop accepting it? It couldn't have been Bitcoin's energy intensity ... Because Elon Musk knew, and commented on, Bitcoin’s energy intensity as far back as February 2019.\nHence, the reason stated for dropping Bitcoin isn’t likely to be the true reason. And neither was there much concern about this energy intensity when adopting Bitcoin. So, there’s likely a hidden motive both for dropping usage. Here's what Elon Musk had to say on Bitcoin back in February 2019 (bold highlight is mine):\n\n One of the downsides of crypto is that, computationally, it's quite energy intensive. So there have to be some kind of constraints on the creation of crypto.\n But it's very energy intensive to create the incremental Bitcoin at this point.\n\nSource:ARKInvest Podcast with Elon Musk\nThus, if the reasons stated for dropping Bitcoin are invalid, it becomes genuinely valid to wonder what the real reasons might be. Those are a mystery.\nWhy Dogecoin?\nFirst, what is Dogecoin? Dogecoin is a cryptocurrency started by Jackson Palmer and Billy Markus as something of a meme joke on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general.\nThe Dogecoin was Jackson Palmer’s idea (who also acquired the Dogecoin.com domain, and created Dogecoin’s overall image and marketing), and the coding was done by Billy Marcus.\nDogecoin is a source code fork of Luckycoin, which was a source code fork of Junkcoin, which was a source code fork of Litecoin, which was a source code fork of Bitcoin.\nBeing a “source code fork” (or codebase fork, or just codebase copy) means developers copied the original code, changed some parameters or sometimes functionality, and then reset the blockchain starting from block 0. Since Luckycoin was open-source software, Billy Marcus took that code, altered some parameters and name fields and UI elements, and Doge was created.\nAccording to Billy Marcus, the whole work took around three hours, though Billy Marcus had prior experience in creating another Bitcoin source fork cryptocurrency (Bells):\n\n It took about three hours to make, with the bulk of that time making alterations to the client to make the text Comic Sans and some custom graphics and wording for different pieces of the UI.\n\nThere were several large changes to the Bitcoin/Litecoin origins:\n\nTarget block time was reduced to 60 seconds, meaning transactions are committed faster (10x faster than Bitcoin, whose block target time is 10 minutes). Still, this is far from where it should be for instant transaction commits.\nSupply was uncapped. Though there was a cap initially set at 100 billion Dogecoins, a change removed the cap. This means Dogecoin is an “inflationary” cryptocurrency. The block reward is now set at 10,000 Dogecoin and will stay there forever (unless the protocol is again changed). As supply expands, though, a fixed block reward means the growth rate slowly declines.\nDogecoin adopted the Litecoin POW (Proof Of Work) algorithm, Scrypt, which is much more memory intensive than SHA256 and less prone to be mined with ASICs (Application-Specific Integrated Circuits) as a result (at least not the same ASICs as Bitcoin).\nDogecoin adopted merged mining with other scrypt-based cryptocurrencies, mainly Litecoin. This allowed Dogecoin to be secured by work performed to mine another cryptocurrency at a time when its network’s hashrate was low and risked becoming unsafe.\nDogecoin adopted a 1 Dogecoin per Kb fixed transaction fee, making it cheaper to transact on the Dogecoin network. 10x more frequent blocks and a similar maximum block size (1 Mb) also means it’s much cheaper to commit transactions on Doge.\n\nAlthough Dogecoin took some compromises so as to provide higher transaction efficiency and speed, in practice these compromises are creating technical problems (this is interesting because recent Elon Muskproposals- like reducing block times - would make said problems more relevant still). As it is, the very quick block generation time is leading to most nodes not getting a synchronized blockchain, and thus making transaction confirmations slower and potentially less safe. Anyway, Dogecoin development is now showered with money and things might improve.\nA curiosity, the Dogecoin network is even more reliant on block rewards compared to fees than the Bitcoin network.\n\nAt $0.50/Dogecoin, with 10,000 Dogecoins awarded per minute, this generates $7.2 million in block rewards per day or $2.63 billion per year. The estimated fees per day are just $40,000, thus representing only $14.6 million per year or 0.56% of the value of the block rewards.\nThe Bitcoin network generates 144 blocks per day, and each rewards 6.25 Bitcoins. At $50,000/Bitcoin, this translates to $45 million per day or $16.43 billion per year. As for transaction fees, it generates an estimated $7.05 million per day or $2.57 billion per year. Transaction fees thus represent 15.7% of the value of the block rewards.\n\nThis might lose some significance in the sense that Dogecoin is inflationary and the block rewards will keep on being generated at the current pace forever.\nAnother interesting fact about Dogecoin is that Dogecoin, launched as a joke on the proliferation of all kinds of altcoins, wasn’t pre-mined. That is, the founders didn’t try to take a large financial advantage of their own creation.\nAlso, over time the founders didn’t accumulate significant amounts of Dogecoin. And at least Billy Marcus famously sold all his Dogecoin (plus other cryptocurrencies) to buy a used Honda Civic. In short, the Dogecoin founders didn’t have a large economic interest in Dogecoin, and both left the project rather early.\nHowever, while the Dogecoin community is painted as fun and uninterested on the “get rich quick” side of things that’s prevalent in cryptocurrencies, there’s evidence to the contrary.\nNowhere is that evidence clearer than in the way Dogecoin’s development froze in time once the initial enthusiasm died down. And sure enough, you can expect said development to wake up again now that Dogecoin is worth tens of billions of dollars (below, Github statistics).\n\nWhen Did Elon Start Being Involved With Dogecoin?\nFor many, it might seem like Elon Musk’s involvement with Bitcoin is something very recent. Charts like this, along with recent participation on the Dogecoin mania, make it seem so:\nSource:Galaxy Digital Research,Cryptowat.ch\nYet, Elon Musk has actually been tweeting on Dogecoin for a very long time. Some might remember him being \"elected Dogecoin’s CEO” as far back as April 2, 2019 (of note, Elon Musk provided an email address for \"access codes\"):\nWhat fewer willrememberisthatthere’s indirect indication that he had been following the project earlier. If not, how would one explain the coincidence of him addressing Jackson Palmer, one of Dogecoin’s founders,back in Sept. 17, 2018? That’s nearly three years ago:\n\nMoreover, this reference is strange, because Jackson Palmer wasn’t the technical lead on Dogecoin. Billy Marcus was. It was the modern equivalent of asking for technical help from Steve Jobs on a hardware issue, instead of asking it from Steve Wozniak. Jackson Palmer did help, though.\nElon Musk’s involvement with Dogecoin was thus more or less a constant at least since 2018, if not earlier. And it endured through the years, as constant references can be seen over and over. For instance,on March 3, 2020, he again said Dogecoin was the best cryptocurrency.\nThis, by itself, would already constitute a mystery. But a lot of other things make the mystery be denser. For instance, if Tesla has an interest in cryptocurrency, why get involved with an existing one instead of launching its own? Remember:\n\nWe saw, exactly from Dogecoin’s launch, that it’s very easy to come up with a Dogecoin equivalent. It took Billy Marcus three hours to set it up.\nWe know, from Elon Musk’s and Tesla’s popularity, that such a Teslacoin would gather instant recognition.\nWe also know that it’s incredibly profitable to launch a cryptocurrency, especially if you pre-mine it (something the Dogecoin founders didn’t do). Tesla is known to take advantage of profitable opportunities - like the instance with battery changes and EV credits, or the instance with selling something it didn't have (Full Self-Driving) since October 2016. How can Tesla pass on the opportunity to mint billions of dollars out of thin air?\nThe cryptocurrency space is worth $2.3 trillion in aggregate. Bitcoin is worth roughly 40% of that. Dogecoin has a near-$70 billion market cap. A Teslacoin would easily be larger than Dogecoin and could even compete with Bitcoin in time (since it would be technically better from a late launch while having massive community support).\n\nAll in all, these considerations make it unlikely for Tesla to get involved with a cryptocurrency “built by others” like Dogecoin. It makes it doubly unlikely when this currency, just six months ago, had a mere $323 million market capitalization (it’s $68 billion right now, 210x higher). Especially when Tesla could replicate the entire thing in a matter of hours (for the technical side of it) and days (for the community and participation side of it). All while retaining control and enjoying massive rewards.\nHence, there’s the mystery: Why go through the trouble of supporting Dogecoin (or Bitcoin, for that matter) when the alternative is so obviously better for Tesla and Elon Musk alike?\nWere Tesla to launch its own Teslacoin, and it's not farfetched to think it could have a $100 billion or more market cap. Were Tesla to pre-mine an amount similar to what Satoshi Nakamoto \"pre-mined\" on Bitcoin, and it could hold 5% of this. On $100 billion, that would be $5 billion made from pure air, and it could then also try to get a cut on transaction revenues, etc., by design. $5 billion is relevant, but much more relevant would be the hype around such an endeavor. Plus this is at a $100 billion market cap, but it could also be multiples of that.\nAdding To The Mystery\nSmall tidbits emerge which add to the Dogecoin/Tesla mystery. For instance, back in that first public contact between Elon Musk and Jackson Palmer in Sept. 17, 2018, both were on friendly terms.\nWhy is it then, that just a couple of days ago, Jackson Palmer emerged from a self-imposed seclusion exclusively to label Elon Musk a self-absorbed grifter? What happened in between Sept. 17, 2018, and yesterday, for Jackson Palmer’s opinion to change so drastically?\nThis happened immediately after Elon Musk tweeted he was working with Dogecoin developers (independent from the founders) on Dogecoin transaction efficiency.\nSo, was this just Jackson Palmer’s evaluation of Elon Musk’s public persona during this time, or did something happen backstage, between the two, that the public isn’t aware of?\nFinal Notes\nAlthough the article speaks of something Tesla can take advantage of, and which would have a large positive impact on the stock price, I label itbearish.\nI label it bearish on valuation. Tesla trades as if will be the most profitable carmaker in the world. Indeed, it trades as if it will be as profitable as several of the largest carmakers in the world put together. This is unlikely to happen. Quite the contrary, competition in the EV space is only set to intensify. Taking advantage of cryptocurrency wouldn't change that enough.\nHowever, it's easy to see that no matter what the underlying value for Tesla might be (and there would be a lot of value), the stock would get pumped crazily. It's been pumped on robotaxis and other things that don't exist - it's not a surprise that it would be pumped on something Tesla can easily deliver...\nThe mysteries do remain, though:\n\nWe don't know why Tesla gave as a reason to dump Bitcoin its energy intensity when Elon already knew about this in 2019.\nWe don't know about the extent of the involvement with Dogecoin, because Elon had contacts with one founder in 2018 before he ever talked about Dogecoin, and because they had an obvious falling out in the meantime which no one knows the reasonfor.\nIt's also a mystery why Tesla doesn't simply launch its own cryptocurrency (which is an obvious thing to do).\n\nAddendum\nThere are a couple more useful observations I want to make.\nBilly Marcus’ Opinion On Cryptocurrency\nBilly Marcus, one of Dogecoin's founders, strikes me as a very realistic and fair person. Hence, I'd like to reproduce his opinion on cryptocurrencies here:\nDogecoin's Concentration\nMost opinions out there,including Elon Musk's, have Dogecoin as being extremely concentrated. However, I came across a study, linked to by Billy Marcus, which seems to dispel this notion a lot. It seems most of the top holders are basically exchange wallets (which aggregate the positions of many individual investors).\nThis does mean that Dogecoin is sort of GameStop (GME) cryptocurrency equivalent, given the intense retail participation, especially through Robinhood. This also makes it likely Dogecoin will end the same way GameStop did.\nElon Musk Catfished On Dogecoin\nThis is just another interesting curiosity. It does show that the Dogecoin community has its share of greedy not-so-innocent actors.\nIn a somewhat-unknown episode Musk fell victim to some such actors, through a catfishing effort. Obviously, the effort was to try and make Musk express himself about Dogecoin, so as to promote Dogecoin.\nConclusion\nTo me, it's a mystery why Tesla really stopped accepting Bitcoin (while continuing to hold it). The reason stated was already known by Musk before Tesla even bought Bitcoin. Elon Musk's involvement with Dogecoin also is a mystery, since it seems to backdate current events by a lot. Finally, it's a mystery why Tesla doesn't launch its own cryptocurrency instead of going around promoting other people's.\nGiven Elon Musk’s interest in cryptocurrency space and the lack of any technical difficulty, I think it’s a natural step for Tesla to launch its own cryptocurrency. If this is done while the cryptocurrency fever lasts, it could serve as yet another way to drive the stock higher. Given Elon Musk’s and Tesla’s popularity, it wouldn’t be very surprising for adoption worldwide to be massive, and for it to generate significant gains for Tesla. The gains could run into the billions of dollars and be recurring, depending on how it’s structured and how long the cryptocurrency euphoria lasts.\nElon Musk’s involvement with Dogecoin, given the ease with which Tesla can replicate and outdo Dogecoin, is really strange.Therelikely are unseen connections to Dogecoin which haven’t come to public knowledge. This is something of an unknown unknown and a potential source of liability.\nI think over time, Dogecoin will suffer a massive crash (80-90%+), much like the rest of the cryptocurrency space. An exception to this would be for Tesla to, somehow, adopt Dogecoin as its own cryptocurrency. This would be very strange, since Tesla would be foregoing the extreme gains which would be available to it if, instead, it launched its own cryptocurrency. Tesla's cryptocurrency could very easily be technically much more advanced than Dogecoin.\nIn short, cryptocurrencies are an opportunity for Tesla even if I disagree with their value. I think overall, cryptocurrencies are just a large pyramid with little practical use. However, it’s clear that Tesla can exploit this euphoria, can do it quickly, and can gain several, possibly many, billions of dollars from milking this irrational euphoria.\nThe opportunity doesn’t lie in Tesla accepting existing cryptocurrencies, investing in existing cryptocurrencies or adopting Dogecoin. The opportunity lies in Tesla launching its own cryptocurrency (after pre-mining it a bit…). If this happens:\n\nTesla will make money out of thin air. $5 billion. $10 billion. It depends on how high the Teslacoin market cap goes, on how much Tesla pre-mines, and if the protocol includes a way for Tesla to get a slice of ongoing transactions using its cryptocurrency.\nTesla stock will be hyped, possibly strongly. It's not hard to envision the stock market believing Tesla will dominate the cryptocurrency market. And the cryptocurrency market is presently a $2-$2.5 trillion market. It's not peanuts. 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The world is insane!","text":"How on earth can crypto price fluctuates up &amp; down based on Elon Musk’s saying? The world is insane!","html":"How on earth can crypto price fluctuates up &amp; down based on Elon Musk’s saying? The world is insane!"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":194091010,"gmtCreate":1621323690530,"gmtModify":1704355770293,"author":{"id":"3581548947231431","authorId":"3581548947231431","name":"KAHHUAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0142df644dd666ed7544324b3fa02898","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581548947231431","authorIdStr":"3581548947231431"},"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/194091010","repostId":1170122575,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":194093732,"gmtCreate":1621323646226,"gmtModify":1704355769810,"author":{"id":"3582119541501169","authorId":"3582119541501169","name":"TestWater","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582119541501169","authorIdStr":"3582119541501169"},"htmlText":"The Bitcoin isn't&nbsp; worth anything...it is just waste the energy...&nbsp;","listText":"The Bitcoin isn't&nbsp; worth anything...it is just waste the energy...&nbsp;","text":"The Bitcoin isn't worth anything...it is just waste the energy...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/194093732","repostId":1170122575,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":194099528,"gmtCreate":1621323525964,"gmtModify":1704355768518,"author":{"id":"3574828530830999","authorId":"3574828530830999","name":"Goldlim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9e542ce924858ade6a168ce6abd8ad9","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a8758340a08196056f8bc1e54805193","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3574828530830999","authorIdStr":"3574828530830999"},"htmlText":"Please help to like and comment","listText":"Please help to like and comment","text":"Please help to like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/194099528","repostId":1170122575,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4366385,"gmtCreate":1621334607995,"gmtModify":1680789478530,"authorId":3566821013640470,"author":{"id":3566821013640470,"idStr":"3566821013640470","authorId":3566821013640470,"name":"Jazling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85e0a83573d9307f57fca9b2baed72af","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.25","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":194099528,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Comment pls","text":"Comment pls","html":"Comment pls"},{"id":4364965,"gmtCreate":1621323804481,"gmtModify":1680789459805,"authorId":3579838075158745,"author":{"id":3579838075158745,"idStr":"3579838075158745","authorId":3579838075158745,"name":"YPT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10baea998b9915ab14ba326ad1c4a2a6","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":194099528,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>Ok</u>","text":"<u>Ok</u>","html":"<u>Ok</u>"},{"id":4365007,"gmtCreate":1621324168744,"gmtModify":1680789459659,"authorId":3577164655493669,"author":{"id":3577164655493669,"idStr":"3577164655493669","authorId":3577164655493669,"name":"Leo_T","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4639e7c3fcdc38b65d6833798171bf2d","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":194099528,"type":1,"supId":4364999,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>k</u>","text":"<u>k</u>","html":"<u>k</u>"},{"id":4364999,"gmtCreate":1621324055660,"gmtModify":1680789459223,"authorId":3576728357666184,"author":{"id":3576728357666184,"idStr":"3576728357666184","authorId":3576728357666184,"name":"Dirui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/028fdb43f6018331c0e01e03918d42c9","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":194099528,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"},{"id":4364974,"gmtCreate":1621323856195,"gmtModify":1680789459054,"authorId":3575936957429593,"author":{"id":3575936957429593,"idStr":"3575936957429593","authorId":3575936957429593,"name":"alvernsim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2fe3d62fe9cea4c6c6e6417f045322d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":194099528,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Done","text":"Done","html":"Done"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":13,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}