Amazon: Advertising Could Be A Crown Jewel

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Amazon: Advertising Could Be A Crown Jewel

seekingalpha2021-08-04

Summary Amazon will have challenging comps over the next 2 to 3 quarters but should normalize towards 20% CAGR after that. Discussing Amazon's Other segment and how advertising is shaping up to be a ...

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Idl3mind
·2021-08-04
Wow Like bros
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och
·2021-08-04
Like pls thx!
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- Ha0:
  ok
  2021-08-04
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peachespicks
·2021-08-04
Like pls
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3
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- och:
  [微笑]
  2021-08-04
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pckisaax
·2021-08-04
Nice nice...
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BenYSLim
·2021-08-04
Like and comment pls
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- ShinChanMZ:
  Ok
  2021-08-04
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- KOPI:
  okok
  2021-08-04
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- Jerkes:
  ?ok
  2021-08-04
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Ping2joseph
·2021-08-04
Nice?
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TWR
·2021-08-04
Hihi
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PhilipLoo
·2021-08-04
Wow
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1
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Beez1119
·2021-08-04
[微笑]
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kusanagi
·2021-08-04
Like and comment please
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- laoniang:
  Okay
  2021-08-04
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James1987
·2021-08-04
Comment
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- kusanagi:
  Ok
  2021-08-04
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- TWR:
  ok
  2021-08-04
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- TWR:
  hihi
  2021-08-04
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lost0star
·2021-08-04
Okay
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- lost0star:
  okay
  2021-08-04
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MLLC
·2021-08-04
Please like thanks!
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Judgers
·2021-08-04
Oh pls like
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Mars88
·2021-08-04
[微笑] [微笑] [微笑]
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- Vj84:
  ?
  2021-08-04
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- Mars88:
  [微笑]
  2021-09-06
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boonk
·2021-08-04
Buy if fall to 3200
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- Cherry16:
  [强]
  2021-08-04
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So this is not a reason to throw in the towel on this investment.\nMoreover, although Amazon declares that its comps will get tough over the coming few quarters, Amazon's CAGR will normalize towards 20% sooner rather than later.\nMeanwhile, Amazon's advertising business may emerge as a future crown jewel for driving margin expansion.\nAmazon right now is priced at approximately 4x its 2021 sales.Hence, it's difficult to argue that the stock is anything but attractively valued.\nRevenue Growth Rates Slow Down\nSource: author's calculations; **high-end company guidance\nAs has been widely discussed, Amazon's guidance for Q3 2021 is less than many investors had hoped for. Indeed, admittedly, this guidance for Q3 took me by surprise.\nWhat's more, Amazon's commentary during the call was a wake-up call to many, myself included, that although Amazon is a formidable e-commerce company, it not only meaningfully benefited from the pandemic but that it is forced to come up against tough comps over the next two to three quarters.In short, its opportunity to report impressive revenue growth rates will be challenged.\nMoreover, Amazon's CFO Brian Olsavsky was open about the fact that Amazon had been growing at approximately 21% CAGR pre-pandemic and that's the rough CAGR that Amazon will return to growing once these challenging comps are overcome.\nWithin this context, I find it useful to go back to basics and think about a successful investing strategy.\nBasic Rules to Successful Investing\nWhen investing, it's not good enough to be attracted to a company that everyone else is attracted to. Investors looking to outperform need to embrace a nonconsensus view.\nAnd to further complicate, being nonconsensus and full of conviction isn't enough. Investors need to be nonconsensus, full of conviction, and correct in a timely fashion.\nBecause being right in the long run may occasionally work out, but in reality, for the vast majority of investors,having to underperform the benchmark for more than 2 years would bring up hard questions from their performance.\nMoreover, declaring that one can put up with underperformance to be proven eventually right, is so much easier to say than it is to do.\nNow, let's discuss what's compelling about Amazon's prospects.\nAmazon's Future Crown Jewel?\nAmazon shareholders are well aware of the tangible and intangible benefits that its Prime memberships provide Amazon. For example, not only does Prime bring in $8 billion in revenues as of Q2 2021, but it also keeps its members more engaged with the platform.\nFurther, Prime members shop more frequently on Amazon with the average ticket order being higher too.\nThus, we can conclude that Amazon Prime continues to be an impressive success for Amazon.\nHowever, what I believe investors are less focused upon is Amazon's Other segment. Not only has Amazon's Other segment generated $8 billion in revenues during Q2, but perhaps more important, it's worthwhile discussing that this segment continues to accelerate and was up 83% y/y.\nSource: author's calculations; Other revenues\nThus, not only is Amazon's Other segment, which is mostly made up of its advertising business, now bringing in the same amount of revenue as Amazon's Prime membership, but as Amazon comes to report Q3 2021, its Other segment will be generating more revenue than Prime.\nFurthermore, although Amazon doesn't offer too many details on this segment's profitability profile, it is perhaps no coincidence that as this segment starts to gather scale that Amazon's profit margins are improving.\nTo illustrate, as of Q2 2021, Amazon's margins were 200 basis points y/y. What's more, if we look towards large advertising platforms, such as Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL) or Facebook (FB), these companies are coveted for their eye-watering profit margins.\nConsider that, for smaller merchants selling through Amazon, paying for advertising at the exact time and place where the consumer finds herself isakin to buying premium shelf space at retailers. Also, advertising allows lesser known products to surface and meet the consumer at the exact time that the consumer is about to complete her purchase.\nNow, let's discuss Amazon's valuation.\nValuation - Attractively Priced\nWhen it comes to investing, there are two sides of the spectrum to investing\n1)You can buy when others won't and sell when others want.\n2)Or you can buy when animal spirits are running high, and sell together with everyone else when the company hits the rough patch.\nWithin this framework, Amazon has rarely been a cheap stock. Right now, despite a lot of volatility in the stock over the past year, the stock has barely moved at all over the past year.\nConsequently, presently, Amazon is priced at 4x sales. For a company as diversified and with as much reach as Amazon, this is a very compelling valuation.\nWhat's more, even though this is largely inline with the multiple to sales that Amazon has traded for over the past two years, at least right now, we are starting to see Amazon as a profitable enterprise.\nAnd as discussed already, I thoroughly suspect that as its advertising business continues to gain scale, that Amazon's profit margins will continue to expand.\nIn the past, investors would have struggled to believe that Amazon could be much more than 10% operating margin company. However, given its advertising business and AWS continuing to grow at a strong clip, it's not impossible that Amazon may in time reach 12% to 15% operating margins.\nThe Bottom Line\nAmazon rarely underperforms the S&P500 (SPY). However, during the past year, Amazon has done just that. For investors, having to put up with slightly dimmed outlook over the next 2 to 3 quarters is simply too big a price to pay.\nHowever, I argue, that buying when others won't when the stock is priced with a compressed multiple, is often a very rewarding strategy.\nHaving said all that, even though I'm very much a contrarian investor and inclined to buy stocks that are on sale, right now I'm favoring smaller cap stocks, as many names are now firmly in correction territory.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":890005799,"gmtCreate":1628064354011,"gmtModify":1703500529859,"author":{"id":"3568893769658331","authorId":"3568893769658331","name":"Idl3mind","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73c568907b1cd98414bc36c7c2df4f1a","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3568893769658331","authorIdStr":"3568893769658331"},"htmlText":"&nbsp;Wow&nbsp;Like bros&nbsp;","listText":"&nbsp;Wow&nbsp;Like bros&nbsp;","text":"Wow Like bros","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/890005799","repostId":1171220910,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":807732267,"gmtCreate":1628056581459,"gmtModify":1703500409626,"author":{"id":"3565663543754207","authorId":"3565663543754207","name":"och","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c195b2a32a90ae2210984600e352644","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3565663543754207","authorIdStr":"3565663543754207"},"htmlText":"Like pls thx!","listText":"Like pls thx!","text":"Like pls thx!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/807732267","repostId":1171220910,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5422209,"gmtCreate":1628056686309,"gmtModify":1663231907235,"authorId":3581931608961006,"author":{"id":3581931608961006,"idStr":"3581931608961006","authorId":3581931608961006,"name":"Ha0","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/686e76fdb92e536941681fe867222e8d","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 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pls&nbsp;","listText":"Like pls&nbsp;","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/807732027","repostId":1171220910,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5422205,"gmtCreate":1628056592575,"gmtModify":1663231907339,"authorId":3565663543754207,"author":{"id":3565663543754207,"idStr":"3565663543754207","authorId":3565663543754207,"name":"och","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c195b2a32a90ae2210984600e352644","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":807732027,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[微笑]","text":"[微笑]","html":"[微笑]"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":807733253,"gmtCreate":1628056206072,"gmtModify":1703500403514,"author":{"id":"4089871672728010","authorId":"4089871672728010","name":"pckisaax","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bf12b648bf13309047c115306c8cc18","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4089871672728010","authorIdStr":"4089871672728010"},"htmlText":"Nice nice...","listText":"Nice nice...","text":"Nice nice...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/807733253","repostId":1171220910,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":807792209,"gmtCreate":1628055700401,"gmtModify":1703500395024,"author":{"id":"3584102971420376","authorId":"3584102971420376","name":"BenYSLim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94898501beebba354d54215388e5f9d1","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3584102971420376","authorIdStr":"3584102971420376"},"htmlText":"&nbsp;Like and comment pls","listText":"&nbsp;Like and comment pls","text":"Like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/807792209","repostId":1171220910,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5422658,"gmtCreate":1628060897620,"gmtModify":1663231909330,"authorId":4088090520949540,"author":{"id":4088090520949540,"idStr":"4088090520949540","authorId":4088090520949540,"name":"ShinChanMZ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d95938311b643db479bb40d813c8e13","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 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