Delta变异病毒来袭，会导致海外市场剧烈震荡吗

国君宏观研究2021-06-25

作者：国君宏观研究董琦 5月下旬以来Delta变异病毒来势汹汹，即便英国等疫苗接种率较高的经济体也出现了新增确诊病例快速上升。疫苗完全接种对其的防护率仍在88%以上，但本次Delta变异病毒传染性更强的特性使得未接种疫苗的年轻群体成为“破防点”。我们认为，若后续Delta变异病毒在接种率更低的美国、欧盟等经济体广泛传播，或将影响其经济解封和就业复苏节奏，但不会改变复苏趋势。英国、以色列等国疫情...

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YESYESYES
·2021-06-26
OMG
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ongbengtee
·2021-06-26
wow
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浴缸潜水员
·2021-06-26
一波接一波的疫情改變了大多數人的生活習慣，也會改變大衆的投資邏輯，最終將重塑人類的認知。
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Icecream1
·2021-06-26
有變異
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Santaurora
·2021-06-25
新加坡早已經遭受這一波攻擊，不過輝瑞看起來還是不錯的。
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5福临门
·2021-06-25
都不知道這名如何來的！
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阿钟啊
·2021-06-25
[捂臉] 美國法國已經宣佈解封，而且媒體也開始淡化疫情報道，真的不知道什麼時候從才能徹底消除疫情。哎，疫情越嚴重，放水越不能停。股市才能繼續起舞。真的不知道是該苦還是笑
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方中正
·2021-06-25
太好了，希望股市暴跌
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猛逃
·2021-06-25
?這傢伙也智能了[疑問]
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Amy1224
·2021-06-25
呃，瞎嗎？股指天天新高
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Kelvinvj
·2021-06-25
[流淚] [流淚]
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James1188
·2021-06-25
病毒越來越嚴重了
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疫苗有效率几何？\n总体上来看，全球疫情表面上依旧持续缓和，海外主要经济体新增确诊病例总体下降。全球新增确诊病例在5月初达到峰值后，就开始持续下降，已经由5月初的每日新增确诊83万例，下降至36万例（截止6月23日）。美国、欧盟和印度的每日新增确诊病例也在持续下降，巴西新增确诊病例略有上升，但总体依旧保持稳定。\n\n\nDelta变异病毒来势汹汹，英国、俄罗斯、印度尼西亚和以色列已经受到明显冲击，警惕全球疫情尾部风险扩大的可能。Delta变异病毒最早于2021年5月在印度被发现（新冠病毒变异毒株B.1.617.2），世卫组织将其命名为Delta变异病毒。从5月下旬和6月初开始，英国、俄罗斯、印度尼西亚每日新增确诊病例再次上升，且上升速度较快，且80%以上的病例都是由Delta变异病毒引起，Delta变异病毒是本次疫情恶化的主要元凶。\n\n疫苗对Delta变异病毒的有效性如何？仅接种一剂疫苗和完全接种疫苗的防护率差别较大，两剂疫苗接种后的防护率能达88%。据英国卫生部门数据显示，仅接种一剂疫苗（英国接种的为辉瑞和阿斯利康疫苗）对Delta变异病毒的防护率仅为33%，但接种两剂后的防护率能达到88%。此前中国疾控中心研究员冯子健也表示表示，Delta变异病毒可能有一定的免疫逃逸现象，但是现有的几种疫苗对这个变异病毒都仍然有可观的免疫效果。\n在接种率如此之高的英国和以色列，Delta变异病毒为何还能“破防”？英国至少接种一剂疫苗比例已经达到64%，接近70%群体免疫的门槛，完全接种比例也已达到46%，而以色列疫苗接种比例更高，至少接种一剂疫苗比例达到64%，完成疫苗接种比例达到60%，但在Delta病毒的冲击之下，新增确诊病例仍然出现了上升。此外，英国的疫情防控措施虽然前期有所放松，但总体也依旧维持了较高水平，这种情况下，Delta变异病毒为何还能“破防”：\n未接种疫苗人群是疫情爆发涉及的主要感染人群，Delta病毒传播速度快、感染性强的特性成为“破防点”。在疫苗接种率较高的英国和以色列，当前Delta变异病毒感染更多的是年轻人，而且其中很大一部分人群还没有接种疫苗，因为英国前期疫苗优先接种年龄较高的人群，而近期才开始放开为18岁及以上人群接种，未成年人仍不能接种疫苗，以色列接种情况也类似。另据欧洲疾管中心估计，Delta变种病毒传染力比Alpha强40%到60%（Alpha现为欧盟主要流行的变种病毒）。此外，6月21日据新京报《紧急呼叫》报道，广州警方在对一起四代重点病例接触追溯过程中发现，第三代接触者与第四代接触者仅用14秒就完成传播。此前，中国疾控中心研究员冯子健在国务院联防联控机制新闻发布会上也表示，与以往变异病毒相比，Delta变异病毒的潜伏期或者传代间隔都缩短了，在短短的10天内就传了五六代，病毒的传播速度在加快。\n\n\n\n\n根据目前观测，Delta变异病毒再次爆发已经使英国在6月14日宣布，英格兰地区将推迟4周执行最后阶段的“解封”措施，开放计划被推迟到了7月19日。以色列总理贝内特也表示，以色列将重新召集新冠内阁，讨论遏制病毒传播的计划。他还表示，作为新预防措施的一部分，以色列或将扩大边境限制，并将在本-古里安国际机场增设新冠检测设施，更多的疫情应对措施将于近日公布（环球网）。\n当前美国、德国、法国和意大利近4周Delta病毒感染率分别为14%、9%、8%和18%，若Delta病毒继续广泛传播，可能会对经济解封节奏、经济与就业复苏带来影响。目前从防疫政策严格程度来看，欧盟主要国家仍高于英国，但美国低于英国；从疫苗接种比例来看，英国仍是主要经济体中疫苗接种比例（至少接种一剂或完全接种）最高的国家，远高于欧盟国家和东南亚国家。虽然接种两剂疫苗对Delta变异病毒的防护率能达到88%，但若后续Delta病毒广泛传播至美国、欧盟、东南亚等经济体，更低的疫苗接种比例或将使得这些经济体再次受到冲击，经济开放步伐或将在一定程度上延缓，经济与就业复苏或再次受到影响。\n若Delta变异病毒进一步传播，或将改变美国服务业修复节奏，但并不改变美国经济与就业复苏的大趋势。目前英国新增确诊病例相当于其前期高位的19%，相当于2021年2月初水平，美国当前受Delta疫情冲击还相对较小，目前新增确诊病例相当于其前期高位的5%，若后续进一步恶化至目前英国的水平（新增确诊回到前期高位的19%），则会重返2021年5月上旬的疫情恶化程度，对美国服务业复苏节奏带来一定影响。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":124987077,"gmtCreate":1624719782299,"gmtModify":1703844093456,"author":{"id":"3569906826803008","authorId":"3569906826803008","name":"YESYESYES","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b229077ea82949e71c489887199b9f98","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3569906826803008","authorIdStr":"3569906826803008"},"htmlText":"OMG","listText":"OMG","text":"OMG","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/124987077","repostId":1171775682,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":125694376,"gmtCreate":1624670641895,"gmtModify":1703843195992,"author":{"id":"3584066196704033","authorId":"3584066196704033","name":"ongbengtee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f97f330bce0a38b05fbca5bfa2d677a","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3584066196704033","authorIdStr":"3584066196704033"},"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/125694376","repostId":1171775682,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":125174618,"gmtCreate":1624666376434,"gmtModify":1703843023720,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3532132223347993","authorIdStr":"3532132223347993"},"htmlText":"一波接一波的疫情改變了大多數人的生活習慣，也會改變大衆的投資邏輯，最終將重塑人類的認知。","listText":"一波接一波的疫情改變了大多數人的生活習慣，也會改變大衆的投資邏輯，最終將重塑人類的認知。","text":"一波接一波的疫情改變了大多數人的生活習慣，也會改變大衆的投資邏輯，最終將重塑人類的認知。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/125174618","repostId":1171775682,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":125127262,"gmtCreate":1624665311456,"gmtModify":1703842982533,"author":{"id":"3579130540905100","authorId":"3579130540905100","name":"Icecream1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/981a6ad62561e8caa76fc52b3366729d","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3579130540905100","authorIdStr":"3579130540905100"},"htmlText":"有變異","listText":"有變異","text":"有變異","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/125127262","repostId":1171775682,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":122721616,"gmtCreate":1624634030035,"gmtModify":1703842405283,"author":{"id":"3579605723262688","authorId":"357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