The US Senate passed the infrastructure plan-the Republican Party began to stand for the 2024 general election
The US Senate passed the bipartisan infrastructure plan yesterday, which was greatly reduced compared with the initial plan. Of the $1 trillion, half is spent on conventional infrastructure, and only $550 billion is spent on new infrastructure, of which $110 billion is spent on roads and bridges. We won't discuss the economic significance of this infrastructure plan today, because the cost of infrastructure in the United States is huge (the annual operating cost of the dilapidated New York subway is $9 billion), and the $110 billion will only be a little water in the end. Today, I mainly talk about the political game after the infrastructure plan.
There is a characteristic of a democratic society. Most things are always supported by half and half. Whether to wear a mask, whether to vaccinate, whether to build infrastructure, whether to increase taxes, whether to immigrate or not … When about half of the people agree with something, they will always see the other half come out against it. Major bills in the United States, with the name of bipartisan support, can be traced back to the bill of George W. Bush fighting Iraq, which was supported by 48 Republican senators and 29 Democratic senators. "Obamacare" and "Trump tax cuts" are only supported by senators from their own parties. The United States is becoming more and more divided, and now even the appointment of justices is 50-50.
The legislative difficulty in the United States lies in the Senate. If you want to pass a bill in the US Senate, you must first end the "filibuster", which requires 60 votes, but only 50 votes when you formally vote. It is also a matter of the last decade that this loophole was discovered and abused into routine. Biden's bipartisan infrastructure plan has 68 votes for ending the "debate" and 69 votes for formal voting. In addition to 50 Democratic senators who all support the infrastructure plan, a total of 19 Republican senators have crossed the party.
If Biden's infrastructure plan finally comes to the ground, it will undoubtedly add an important weight to his re-election in 2024, because the infrastructure plan has not been realized in the United States for more than ten years, and all presidential candidates say they want to build infrastructure when they run for office, but they are all empty promises. To say 10,000 steps back, even if Biden loses the election in 2024, the infrastructure plan will become his landmark bill as president, which is as famous as "Trump tax reduction", "Obamacare" and "George W. Bush fighting Iraq".
Republican senators can't help but understand that supporting infrastructure plans is tantamount to endorsing Biden in 2024, but they still have to play with fire tentatively. Because for them, 2024 is either Biden or Trump. Calls for Trump to re-enter the race are growing, and the Justice Department and New York state are investigating his economic problems, which will further push Trump to re-enter the race for president. As long as he becomes president, he can stop the investigation of him by the Ministry of Justice.
Of the 50 Republican senators, 19 supported, 30 opposed and one did not vote. Because the normal Republican voting behavior is against, I classify the person who did not vote as for (timidly for). The following figure shows the age and term statistics of Republican lawmakers who support and oppose infrastructure plans. Simply put, the older Republican senators, the longer they serve, are more willing to cross the party in this vote.
Republican senators cross parties, not because they really want to be happy for the American people, but because they don't care more about their political career. Three of these 20 people will not seek re-election after their term ends in 2022. If you look closely at the list, the Republican senator's favorite (Cruz, Scott, Cotton, Hawley), who is also a possible future presidential candidate, is not among the supporters. In Trump's second impeachment vote, five out of seven renegade Republican lawmakers supported the infrastructure. McConnell, the Republican Senate leader who has always opposed all Democratic policies, also voted for it in this vote. In the second impeachment, McConnell was the most vocal condemner of Trump in the Republican Party.
The 20 Republican senators are not supporting infrastructure, they are only taking sides against Trump's 2024.