JD.Com: Fear Of China Makes It Extremely Attractive

seekingalpha2021-04-20

Summary JD.com is the leading retail in China and its core business is e-commerce. JD's price has particularly dropped in the last period creating a buying opportunity. JD appears significantly ...

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666huat666
·2021-04-25
Yes can buy buy buy .. save me come...
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- SALIKAReplying to666huat666:
  Yalor, sian.
  2021-05-02
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- 666huat666:
  sinking again... pray [保佑]
  2021-05-01
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- SALIKA:
  We save each other ah...
  2021-04-28
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ShawnE
·2021-04-25
Time to buy and make money by hold the stock for 15 years until fundamentals change and then sell at a very high price.
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- koolgal:
  Good strategy
  2021-07-28
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CHM_Jc
·2021-04-22
Ark ETF may buy more at lower
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RonaldSTH
·2021-04-21
Where the majority fear to go into, that is where the brilliant few make the most money. It is now; or never.
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FrankieKek
·2021-04-20
Ok
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Silverlitz
·2021-04-20
Yes fully agree with this author
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Vin309
·2021-04-20
Ok
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Alfred1007
·2021-04-20
Don't dare to buy..
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- Vin309:
  Can
  2021-04-20
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Indeed, the business is booming, the company has a healthy balance sheet and the valuation is not prohibitive. Yet the stock has lost more than 30% from all-time highs.\nBusiness\nJD is China's largest online retailer. It can be divided between a core business, which is e-commerce, and the alternative business that mainly involve logistics. In addition to these, JD is also active in the fintech area through its 42% stake in JD Digits.\nIn terms of growth, the e-commerce market is still in an interesting growth phase, which means JD could continue to benefit from this rising market. Also, in China, the retail market is still extremely fragmented and JD leveraging its dominant position could continue to gain market share. On the other hand, the Chinese government could slow down this growth. Indeed, the recent interventions of the Chinese government to reduce the abuse of dominant positions, for example by blocking practices such as the so-called \"pick one from two\", which forces sellers to give exclusivity to a retailer to be present on their site, would risk making this market relatively more fragmented.\nSource: JD.com Inc 4Q2020 Financial and Operational Highlights\nI argue that however growth may be slowed, the most powerful companies will inevitably gain market share. Even if this doesn't happen, China remains a big growth market, with over 70% of the population expected to be part of the middle class by 2030.\nWhat I like most about JD is the innovation of the company and the fact that through the use of various advanced technologies they manage to give an enhanced user experience to the customer. Also, they are the only e-commerce business of this size that has a success rate of over 90% when it comes to same-day or one-day deliveries. While this may have once seemed banal, we realize how in today's day it is of absolute importance for e-commerce to have an efficient and reliable logistics network that allows the customer to receive products in the shortest possible time.\nWhat I like less about JD is the smaller revenue diversification compared to other Chinese tech companies. Although JD is investing to expand into other fields and with alternative products and has significant stakes in innovative companies such as JD Digits and JD Health (OTCPK:JDHIF), it is not as diversified as Chinese giants like Alibaba (BABA).\nPrice\nThe price of JD.com has almost doubled over the past year, but as of today, we are nevertheless more than 30% away from all-time highs.\nData by YCharts\nThis has been a real price collapse, which can be justified by the negative market sentiment due to both the situation of Chinese ADRs delisting from the US market, but also the recent crackdown by the Chinese government on the tech sector. It is clear that the market is extremely scared right now and taking these risks can provide us with a risk premium on market returns. We also see how JD's share price is at its lowest level in the last year when assessed using EV/EBIT, Price/FCF, and PE multiples. This is due to both the growth of the business over the past year and the price drop we discussed above.\nData by YCharts\nOverall, I think the risks are overblown and this is a good opportunity to grab shares of one of the most promising Chinese stocks for the next decade. Yes, this move by the Chinese government could put a spoke in the wheel in the short term, but the company's fundamentals and long-term outlook remain intact.\nValuation\nAfter noting that a relative valuation shows apparent upside concerning the price of JD, I also computed an absolute valuation with a DCF model, to see whether there was a margin of safety that could justify buying the stock.\nTo evaluate JD, I divided the company into 2 parts:\n\nRetail\nNew Businesses (which includes the logistics business)\n\nBesides, I added to the valuation:\n\nthe 42% stake they own in JD Digits (with the IPO filings valuation of $29B)\nthe 67% stake in JD Health (with the current market valuation)\n\nI use the following main assumptions for the valuation:\n\nJD's GMV growth will be in line with the e-commerce sector. With the current situation, I do not feel comfortable predicting a market share gain.\nJD's operating margins will grow over the next few years from around 3 to 15%. JD just became profitable in 2019 and may be able to achieve much higher margins.\nIn the new businesses part, growth will continue at a lower rate and that part will become profitable in a few years.\n\nIn the picture below, I show all my input data.\nSource: Author's Spreadsheet\nWith the assumptions listed above, we find a fair value per share of $109.58/share. This would mean that at the current price of about $77/share JD.com is undervalued by over 42%.\nSource: Author's Spreadsheet\nConclusion\nIn conclusion, JD is a particularly intriguing company. JD's business is divided into several lines, focusing mainly on logistics and, in particular, e-commerce. However, the stakes in JD Health and JD digits are equally interesting and valuable.\nAs the leading retailer in China, JD.com can also be seen as a bet on the country and the growth of consumer spending as the average Chinese citizen's wealth grows.\nFrom relative (multiples) and absolute (DCF model) valuations, JD appears significantly undervalued. This can be explained by the negative market sentiment in the last period towards Chinese ADRs.\nI think this market reaction is overblown and this is a good opportunity to pick up some JD stocks.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":375818801,"gmtCreate":1619322085203,"gmtModify":1704722440373,"author":{"id":"3559102890148495","authorId":"3559102890148495","authorIdStr":"3559102890148495","name":"666huat666","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaee715fb6027f469a083e0084bbd67c","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3559102890148495"},"htmlText":"Yes can buy buy buy .. save me come...","listText":"Yes can buy buy buy .. save me come...","text":"Yes can buy buy buy .. save me 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sian."},{"id":4191334,"gmtCreate":1619859621828,"gmtModify":1680786494820,"authorId":3559102890148495,"author":{"id":3559102890148495,"authorId":3559102890148495,"name":"666huat666","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaee715fb6027f469a083e0084bbd67c","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-3","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"President Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $1,000,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.22","exceedPercentage":"93.60%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":375818801,"type":1,"supId":4153647,"prevId":0,"content":"sinking again... pray  [保佑]","text":"sinking again... pray  [保佑]","html":"sinking again... pray  [保佑]"},{"id":4153647,"gmtCreate":1619566250945,"gmtModify":1680785915662,"authorId":3569873224808379,"author":{"id":3569873224808379,"authorId":3569873224808379,"name":"SALIKA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/238d1fc7e659b1863ba570d82738c476","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":375818801,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"We save each other ah...","text":"We save each other ah...","html":"We save each other ah..."}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":375976317,"gmtCreate":1619300791539,"gmtModify":1704722116144,"author":{"id":"3572967417187718","authorId":"3572967417187718","authorIdStr":"3572967417187718","name":"ShawnE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/930f8101a1402b6911d932bfc312f39f","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572967417187718"},"htmlText":"Time to buy and make money by&nbsp;hold the stock for 15 years until fundamentals change and then sell at a very high price.&nbsp;","listText":"Time to buy and make money by&nbsp;hold the stock for 15 years until fundamentals change and then sell at a very high price.&nbsp;","text":"Time to buy and make money by hold the stock for 15 years until fundamentals change and then sell at a very high price.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/375976317","repostId":1174472089,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5350429,"gmtCreate":1627420392368,"gmtModify":1663231587060,"authorId":3559581955535845,"author":{"id":3559581955535845,"authorId":3559581955535845,"name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","vip":2,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"c4ee29b388ff41cc8462b3b7ea00d1e2-1","templateUuid":"c4ee29b388ff41cc8462b3b7ea00d1e2","name":"Monthly Top Contributor","description":"Top 3 Contributors with the most and best Editor's Picks every month","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0cad6192443c33dca826a001250fbd4","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ccd98c646815ce7610b0df338e060cc","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://ttm.financial/TW/9000980585","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.04.02","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2003},"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[{"badgeId":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8-1","templateUuid":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8","name":"Star Contributor","description":"Have published 3 or more picked posts, and have published at least one picked post and participated in comments within 30 days","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://ttm.financial/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.09.20","individualDisplayEnabled":1,"backgroundColor":{"dark":"#675a37","tint":"#f9ebc2"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#ffffff","tint":"#ab7a0e"},"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2007}]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":375976317,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Good strategy","text":"Good strategy","html":"Good strategy"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":378401448,"gmtCreate":1619053558684,"gmtModify":1704718857208,"author":{"id":"3556600631001884","authorId":"3556600631001884","authorIdStr":"3556600631001884","name":"CHM_Jc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38c0fd9f965d74e66058c0d8d85e962a","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3556600631001884"},"htmlText":"Ark ETF may buy more at lower&nbsp;","listText":"Ark ETF may buy more at lower&nbsp;","text":"Ark ETF may buy more at 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It is now; or never.","listText":"Where the majority fear to go into, that is where the brilliant few make the most money. It is now; or never.","text":"Where the majority fear to go into, that is where the brilliant few make the most money. 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