Grab Holdings: Grab This Bargain Before It Gets Too Expensive

Seeking Alpha11-15

SummaryUsers active in both GrabFood and GrabMart show 5x order frequency, driving delivery revenue up 13% YoY in Q3 2024.With just 5% of the regional population using Grab monthly, there’s ...

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HiddenDragon
·11-15
Grabbish...
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Noobmaster69
·11-15
Grab to the mooooon
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Therefore, I maintain a strong buy rating for this stock.Grab Holdings Limited has caught the attention of many investors after releasing its Q3 2024 earnings report, with its share price climbing 10% since the release.Seeking AlphaHowever, looking back to August this year, the share price has increased by more than 65%.In my view, there are strong indications that point to further growth, including the company's cross-selling strategy between GrabFood and GrabMart, and the fact that the company is just scratching the surface of the total addressable market in Southeast Asia.With just 1 in 20 people in the region using the app monthly, the company still has a long way to go before reaching its full market potential.In this article, I will discuss these, are more factors that make this company a strong buy.However, I will advance here that one of these factors in my bull thesis is a critical inflection point in operating profitability in the next 2-4 quarters.I will also discuss some of the risks that could break apart my thesis, including its incentive-driven growth model and the underperformance of the financial services segment.Did I miss anything? Share your thoughts and join the conversation with other investors who, like you, are keeping a close eye on Grab.Cross-Selling At Its BestIn my view, one of the main benefits of Super Apps like Grab is how effectively they promote and sell different services within the same platform.A clear example is the synergy between GrabFood and GrabMart.According to the latest earnings call transcript, users who engage with both Food and Mart services show nearly 5x higher order frequency and more than double the retention rate compared to single-service users.The cross-selling between these two platforms helped GrabMart, a newer service, grow 1.7x faster than GrabFood, a more established app in Grab's ecosystem, during the last quarter.Overall, the delivery segment revenue grew by 13% YoY, reaching $380 million in Q3 2024.While cross-selling played a key role in this growth, it's important not to overlook the contribution of Saver Deliveries, a low-cost delivery service, which alone made up about 32% of all delivery transactions.Barely Scratching the Surface of Total Addressable MarketAs you already know, Grab operates in Southeast Asia. To be specific, I considered including a comprehensive list of the countries where they operate below:IndonesiaMalaysiaSingaporeThailandVietnamPhilippinesCambodiaMyanmarUnfortunately, the company doesn't break down revenue per country. However, the last earnings report mentions Indonesia as one of the main countries for Grab, with positive EBITDA achieved in this region over a year ago. Other markets, like Singapore and Malaysia, are also relevant for the company, especially in financial services.Its market penetration can be analyzed through metrics like Monthly Transaction Volumes (MTU) and Annual Transaction Volumes (ATU).Let's start with the first metric; MTU.Grab reported 42 million MTUs across its platform. To put things in perspective, this value represents approximately 5% of the total Southeast Asian population.What is even more encouraging is the ATU, standing at 15% of the Southeast Asian population. In other words, approximately 1 in 6 Southeast Asians have made a transaction in the Super App at least once a year.With 1 in 20 people living in this region using the app on a monthly basis, the company has plenty of room for growth until they reach saturation. Especially, if the company manages to convert some of the one-off annual users (1 in 6 Southeast Asians) to recurring customers, using promotions or incentives.Another factor to consider is the resurgence in inbound tourism in Southeast Asia, with Grab's mobility services well-positioned to capture increased mobility and delivery demand. An example is the surge of Australian tourists in Indonesia, specifically in Bali.To wrap up this section, I believe there are clear signs that Grab is only starting to tap into the vast total addressable market in Southeast Asia.FundamentalsLet's start with the income statement.Revenue has been growing in the double digits since Q1 2022, followed by gross profit, which turned positive in Q3 2022.However, what I found most encouraging in the income statement is the operating and net income.Why?Well, the operating income of the company has been in the negative figures ever since the company has been trading publicly.However, it all points out that they will achieve its first quarter of positive operating income very soon.How soon? In my view, no one knows for sure. It might be in the next 2 quarters, or in the next 4.However, I believe that when this happens, the image of the company will change quite drastically among investors.Moving on, in the last quarter, the net income of the company was positive, sitting at $26 million. This was the second time since the company has been trading publicly. However, I wouldn't pop a bottle of champagne just yet, considering that the company benefited from $87 million in net finance income for the quarter, driven by favorable currency fluctuations and higher interest income. Without this $87 million, the net income would have been negative.The balance sheet shows consistent negative net debt since 2022. The liquidity ratios of the company look very decent. I considered including a table below with these ratios as of the end of the last quarter.The cash flow statement shows a turning point in 2023 for both operating and free cash flows. In 2022, the company faced a cash outflow of $903 million. However, over the past 12 months, operating cash flow improved to $741 million. A similar improvement can be seen in the free cash flow as well.ValuationA quick look at the chart below shows most of the valuation ratios of the company trading close to the 5-year minimum range.Stock RoverThe P/B ratio seems to be in the middle of this range, so I considered using P/B as the comparison metrics with its industry peers (notice not all of them are competitors).I've included a comparison table below, sorted by P/B in descending order.valuationIf we use other valuation metrics, we arrive at a similar conclusion: Grab doesn't show any strong signs of overvaluation.As a side note to the author, my investment approach doesn't aim to predict the company's fair value, since I believe no one can do that accurately. Instead, my valuation analysis focuses on assessing whether the company is overvalued compared to its peers and its historical trends.RisksA key risk for the company is the high reliance on incentives to drive growth.In the last quarter, total incentives reached $462 million, with partner incentives rising by 14% and consumer incentives increasing by 27% compared to the same period last year.In my view, these incentives are necessary, especially for product launches like Saver Deliveries and advanced booking for Mobility. However, I acknowledge that these incentives have an impact on the company's profitability.Speaking about profitability, another risk factor to consider is the financial services segment, which reported a negative adjusted EBITDA of $26 million in Q3 2024. Although lending revenue and the loan portfolio experienced a substantial growth of 81% YoY, the costs associated with expanding digital banking operations and potential credit risks in new lending markets could put further pressure on this segment.ConclusionTo wrap up, I maintain a strong buy rating for Grab.One of the key drivers behind my rating is the significant room for user base expansion. Annual transacting users represent only 15% of Southeast Asia's population, with only 1 in 20 Southeast Asians categorized as monthly transacting users. The rebound in tourism adds another growth lever, particularly in mobility services in Indonesia, considering the high influx of tourists coming from Australia.Other positive factors include the strong cross-selling capabilities of the company, particularly the synergy between GrabFood and GrabMart. Users who engage with both apps show nearly 5x higher order frequency and more than double the retention rate compared to single-service users.From a fundamentals perspective, the company is nearing a significant inflection point for operating income. Considering the positive trend since 2022, I believe there is a high chance for operating income to turn positive in the next 2-4 quarters.However, there are some risks to my bull thesis, including Grab's heavy reliance on incentives, which totaled $462 million last quarter. Additionally, its financial services segment remains a drag on earnings, with a negative adjusted EBITDA of $26 million in Q3 2024.Despite these challenges, I have a high conviction in Grab's growth potential and its ability to further expand in the Southeast Asian market.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[{"id":371268608368944,"gmtCreate":1731681469556,"gmtModify":1731681473572,"author":{"id":"3576136587240958","authorId":"3576136587240958","name":"HiddenDragon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/041eb19e38ad8e9d74b41569dcdfd51d","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3576136587240958","authorIdStr":"3576136587240958"},"htmlText":"Grabbish...","listText":"Grabbish...","text":"Grabbish...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/371268608368944","repostId":1177868118,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1177868118","pubTimestamp":1731655927,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177868118?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-11-15 15:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Grab Holdings: Grab This Bargain Before It Gets Too Expensive","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177868118","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryUsers active in both GrabFood and GrabMart show 5x order frequency, driving delivery revenue up 13% YoY in Q3 2024.With just 5% of the regional population using Grab monthly, there’s substantia","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_553407453\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Users active in both GrabFood and GrabMart show 5x order frequency, driving delivery revenue up 13% YoY in Q3 2024.</p></li><li><p>With just 5% of the regional population using Grab monthly, there’s substantial room for market penetration and user base expansion.</p></li><li><p>I anticipate Grab to hit positive operating income within 2-4 quarters, marking a shift in investor sentiment.</p></li><li><p>Risks include underperformance of the financial segment, with high incentive spending totaling $462 million in the last quarter.</p></li><li><p>Looking at the valuation ratios, I believe the company is still cheap, despite the recent jump in the share price. Therefore, I maintain a strong buy rating for this stock.</p></li></ul><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GRAB\">Grab Holdings Limited</a> has caught the attention of many investors after releasing its Q3 2024 earnings report, with its share price climbing 10% since the release.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/103a0d4d5ae8852784d8509d092ca997\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha\" title=\"Seeking Alpha\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p>However, looking back to August this year, the share price has increased by more than 65%.</p><p>In my view, there are strong indications that point to further growth, including the company&#39;s cross-selling strategy between GrabFood and GrabMart, and the fact that the company is just scratching the surface of the total addressable market in Southeast Asia.</p><p>With just 1 in 20 people in the region using the app monthly, the company still has a long way to go before reaching its full market potential.</p><p>In this article, I will discuss these, are more factors that make this company a strong buy.</p><p>However, I will advance here that one of these factors in my bull thesis is a critical inflection point in operating profitability in the next 2-4 quarters.</p><p>I will also discuss some of the risks that could break apart my thesis, including its incentive-driven growth model and the underperformance of the financial services segment.</p><p>Did I miss anything? Share your thoughts and join the conversation with other investors who, like you, are keeping a close eye on Grab.</p><h2 id=\"id_539315122\">Cross-Selling At Its Best</h2><p>In my view, one of the main benefits of Super Apps like Grab is how effectively they promote and sell different services within the same platform.</p><p>A clear example is the synergy between GrabFood and GrabMart.</p><p>According to the latest earnings call transcript, users who engage with both Food and Mart services show nearly 5x higher order frequency and more than double the retention rate compared to single-service users.</p><p>The cross-selling between these two platforms helped GrabMart, a newer service, grow 1.7x faster than GrabFood, a more established app in Grab&#39;s ecosystem, during the last quarter.</p><p>Overall, the delivery segment revenue grew by 13% YoY, reaching $380 million in Q3 2024.</p><p>While cross-selling played a key role in this growth, it&#39;s important not to overlook the contribution of Saver Deliveries, a low-cost delivery service, which alone made up about 32% of all delivery transactions.</p><h2 id=\"id_1295449243\">Barely Scratching the Surface of Total Addressable Market</h2><p>As you already know, Grab operates in Southeast Asia. To be specific, I considered including a comprehensive list of the countries where they operate below:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Indonesia</p></li><li><p>Malaysia</p></li><li><p>Singapore</p></li><li><p>Thailand</p></li><li><p>Vietnam</p></li><li><p>Philippines</p></li><li><p>Cambodia</p></li><li><p>Myanmar</p></li></ul><p>Unfortunately, the company doesn&#39;t break down revenue per country. However, the last earnings report mentions Indonesia as one of the main countries for Grab, with positive EBITDA achieved in this region over a year ago. Other markets, like Singapore and Malaysia, are also relevant for the company, especially in financial services.</p><p>Its market penetration can be analyzed through metrics like Monthly Transaction Volumes (MTU) and Annual Transaction Volumes (ATU).</p><p>Let&#39;s start with the first metric; MTU.</p><p>Grab reported 42 million MTUs across its platform. To put things in perspective, this value represents approximately 5% of the total Southeast Asian population.</p><p>What is even more encouraging is the ATU, standing at 15% of the Southeast Asian population. In other words, approximately 1 in 6 Southeast Asians have made a transaction in the Super App at least once a year.</p><p>With 1 in 20 people living in this region using the app on a monthly basis, the company has plenty of room for growth until they reach saturation. Especially, if the company manages to convert some of the one-off annual users (1 in 6 Southeast Asians) to recurring customers, using promotions or incentives.</p><p>Another factor to consider is the resurgence in inbound tourism in Southeast Asia, with Grab&#39;s mobility services well-positioned to capture increased mobility and delivery demand. An example is the surge of Australian tourists in Indonesia, specifically in Bali.</p><p>To wrap up this section, I believe there are clear signs that Grab is only starting to tap into the vast total addressable market in Southeast Asia.</p><h2 id=\"id_904989361\">Fundamentals</h2><p>Let&#39;s start with the income statement.</p><p>Revenue has been growing in the double digits since Q1 2022, followed by gross profit, which turned positive in Q3 2022.</p><p>However, what I found most encouraging in the income statement is the operating and net income.</p><p>Why?</p><p>Well, the operating income of the company has been in the negative figures ever since the company has been trading publicly.</p><p>However, it all points out that they will achieve its first quarter of positive operating income very soon.</p><p>How soon? In my view, no one knows for sure. It might be in the next 2 quarters, or in the next 4.</p><p>However, I believe that when this happens, the image of the company will change quite drastically among investors.</p><p>Moving on, in the last quarter, the net income of the company was positive, sitting at $26 million. This was the second time since the company has been trading publicly. However, I wouldn&#39;t pop a bottle of champagne just yet, considering that the company benefited from $87 million in net finance income for the quarter, driven by favorable currency fluctuations and higher interest income. Without this $87 million, the net income would have been negative.</p><p>The balance sheet shows consistent negative net debt since 2022. The liquidity ratios of the company look very decent. I considered including a table below with these ratios as of the end of the last quarter.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/af186752389c3563363bd6554324f910\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"178\"/></p><p>The cash flow statement shows a turning point in 2023 for both operating and free cash flows. In 2022, the company faced a cash outflow of $903 million. However, over the past 12 months, operating cash flow improved to $741 million. A similar improvement can be seen in the free cash flow as well.</p><h2 id=\"id_3822869845\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Valuation</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">A quick look at the chart below shows most of the valuation ratios of the company trading close to the 5-year minimum range.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ffb673973752e0fa3039dd9cce07c92c\" alt=\"Stock Rover\" title=\"Stock Rover\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\"/><span>Stock Rover</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The P/B ratio seems to be in the middle of this range, so I considered using P/B as the comparison metrics with its industry peers (notice not all of them are competitors).</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">I&#39;ve included a comparison table below, sorted by P/B in descending order.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6edccf94f2fe1a62ba3c1de0a901e804\" alt=\"valuation\" title=\"valuation\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"184\"/><span>valuation</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">If we use other valuation metrics, we arrive at a similar conclusion: Grab doesn&#39;t show any strong signs of overvaluation.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">As a side note to the author, my investment approach doesn&#39;t aim to predict the company&#39;s fair value, since I believe no one can do that accurately. Instead, my valuation analysis focuses on assessing whether the company is overvalued compared to its peers and its historical trends.</p><h2 id=\"id_2524728026\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Risks</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">A key risk for the company is the high reliance on incentives to drive growth.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In the last quarter, total incentives reached $462 million, with partner incentives rising by 14% and consumer incentives increasing by 27% compared to the same period last year.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In my view, these incentives are necessary, especially for product launches like Saver Deliveries and advanced booking for Mobility. However, I acknowledge that these incentives have an impact on the company&#39;s profitability.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Speaking about profitability, another risk factor to consider is the financial services segment, which reported a negative adjusted EBITDA of $26 million in Q3 2024. Although lending revenue and the loan portfolio experienced a substantial growth of 81% YoY, the costs associated with expanding digital banking operations and potential credit risks in new lending markets could put further pressure on this segment.</p><h2 id=\"id_957577369\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Conclusion</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">To wrap up, I maintain a strong buy rating for Grab.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">One of the key drivers behind my rating is the significant room for user base expansion. Annual transacting users represent only 15% of Southeast Asia&#39;s population, with only 1 in 20 Southeast Asians categorized as monthly transacting users. The rebound in tourism adds another growth lever, particularly in mobility services in Indonesia, considering the high influx of tourists coming from Australia.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Other positive factors include the strong cross-selling capabilities of the company, particularly the synergy between GrabFood and GrabMart. Users who engage with both apps show nearly 5x higher order frequency and more than double the retention rate compared to single-service users.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">From a fundamentals perspective, the company is nearing a significant inflection point for operating income. Considering the positive trend since 2022, I believe there is a high chance for operating income to turn positive in the next 2-4 quarters.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">However, there are some risks to my bull thesis, including Grab&#39;s heavy reliance on incentives, which totaled $462 million last quarter. Additionally, its financial services segment remains a drag on earnings, with a negative adjusted EBITDA of $26 million in Q3 2024.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Despite these challenges, I have a high conviction in Grab&#39;s growth potential and its ability to further expand in the Southeast Asian market.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Grab Holdings: Grab This Bargain Before It Gets Too Expensive</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGrab Holdings: Grab This Bargain Before It Gets Too Expensive\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-15 15:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4737361-grab-holdings-grab-this-bargain-before-it-gets-too-expensive><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryUsers active in both GrabFood and GrabMart show 5x order frequency, driving delivery revenue up 13% YoY in Q3 2024.With just 5% of the regional population using Grab monthly, there’s ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4737361-grab-holdings-grab-this-bargain-before-it-gets-too-expensive\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GRAB":"Grab Holdings"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4737361-grab-holdings-grab-this-bargain-before-it-gets-too-expensive","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177868118","content_text":"SummaryUsers active in both GrabFood and GrabMart show 5x order frequency, driving delivery revenue up 13% YoY in Q3 2024.With just 5% of the regional population using Grab monthly, there’s substantial room for market penetration and user base expansion.I anticipate Grab to hit positive operating income within 2-4 quarters, marking a shift in investor sentiment.Risks include underperformance of the financial segment, with high incentive spending totaling $462 million in the last quarter.Looking at the valuation ratios, I believe the company is still cheap, despite the recent jump in the share price. Therefore, I maintain a strong buy rating for this stock.Grab Holdings Limited has caught the attention of many investors after releasing its Q3 2024 earnings report, with its share price climbing 10% since the release.Seeking AlphaHowever, looking back to August this year, the share price has increased by more than 65%.In my view, there are strong indications that point to further growth, including the company's cross-selling strategy between GrabFood and GrabMart, and the fact that the company is just scratching the surface of the total addressable market in Southeast Asia.With just 1 in 20 people in the region using the app monthly, the company still has a long way to go before reaching its full market potential.In this article, I will discuss these, are more factors that make this company a strong buy.However, I will advance here that one of these factors in my bull thesis is a critical inflection point in operating profitability in the next 2-4 quarters.I will also discuss some of the risks that could break apart my thesis, including its incentive-driven growth model and the underperformance of the financial services segment.Did I miss anything? Share your thoughts and join the conversation with other investors who, like you, are keeping a close eye on Grab.Cross-Selling At Its BestIn my view, one of the main benefits of Super Apps like Grab is how effectively they promote and sell different services within the same platform.A clear example is the synergy between GrabFood and GrabMart.According to the latest earnings call transcript, users who engage with both Food and Mart services show nearly 5x higher order frequency and more than double the retention rate compared to single-service users.The cross-selling between these two platforms helped GrabMart, a newer service, grow 1.7x faster than GrabFood, a more established app in Grab's ecosystem, during the last quarter.Overall, the delivery segment revenue grew by 13% YoY, reaching $380 million in Q3 2024.While cross-selling played a key role in this growth, it's important not to overlook the contribution of Saver Deliveries, a low-cost delivery service, which alone made up about 32% of all delivery transactions.Barely Scratching the Surface of Total Addressable MarketAs you already know, Grab operates in Southeast Asia. To be specific, I considered including a comprehensive list of the countries where they operate below:IndonesiaMalaysiaSingaporeThailandVietnamPhilippinesCambodiaMyanmarUnfortunately, the company doesn't break down revenue per country. However, the last earnings report mentions Indonesia as one of the main countries for Grab, with positive EBITDA achieved in this region over a year ago. Other markets, like Singapore and Malaysia, are also relevant for the company, especially in financial services.Its market penetration can be analyzed through metrics like Monthly Transaction Volumes (MTU) and Annual Transaction Volumes (ATU).Let's start with the first metric; MTU.Grab reported 42 million MTUs across its platform. To put things in perspective, this value represents approximately 5% of the total Southeast Asian population.What is even more encouraging is the ATU, standing at 15% of the Southeast Asian population. In other words, approximately 1 in 6 Southeast Asians have made a transaction in the Super App at least once a year.With 1 in 20 people living in this region using the app on a monthly basis, the company has plenty of room for growth until they reach saturation. Especially, if the company manages to convert some of the one-off annual users (1 in 6 Southeast Asians) to recurring customers, using promotions or incentives.Another factor to consider is the resurgence in inbound tourism in Southeast Asia, with Grab's mobility services well-positioned to capture increased mobility and delivery demand. An example is the surge of Australian tourists in Indonesia, specifically in Bali.To wrap up this section, I believe there are clear signs that Grab is only starting to tap into the vast total addressable market in Southeast Asia.FundamentalsLet's start with the income statement.Revenue has been growing in the double digits since Q1 2022, followed by gross profit, which turned positive in Q3 2022.However, what I found most encouraging in the income statement is the operating and net income.Why?Well, the operating income of the company has been in the negative figures ever since the company has been trading publicly.However, it all points out that they will achieve its first quarter of positive operating income very soon.How soon? In my view, no one knows for sure. It might be in the next 2 quarters, or in the next 4.However, I believe that when this happens, the image of the company will change quite drastically among investors.Moving on, in the last quarter, the net income of the company was positive, sitting at $26 million. This was the second time since the company has been trading publicly. However, I wouldn't pop a bottle of champagne just yet, considering that the company benefited from $87 million in net finance income for the quarter, driven by favorable currency fluctuations and higher interest income. Without this $87 million, the net income would have been negative.The balance sheet shows consistent negative net debt since 2022. The liquidity ratios of the company look very decent. I considered including a table below with these ratios as of the end of the last quarter.The cash flow statement shows a turning point in 2023 for both operating and free cash flows. In 2022, the company faced a cash outflow of $903 million. However, over the past 12 months, operating cash flow improved to $741 million. A similar improvement can be seen in the free cash flow as well.ValuationA quick look at the chart below shows most of the valuation ratios of the company trading close to the 5-year minimum range.Stock RoverThe P/B ratio seems to be in the middle of this range, so I considered using P/B as the comparison metrics with its industry peers (notice not all of them are competitors).I've included a comparison table below, sorted by P/B in descending order.valuationIf we use other valuation metrics, we arrive at a similar conclusion: Grab doesn't show any strong signs of overvaluation.As a side note to the author, my investment approach doesn't aim to predict the company's fair value, since I believe no one can do that accurately. Instead, my valuation analysis focuses on assessing whether the company is overvalued compared to its peers and its historical trends.RisksA key risk for the company is the high reliance on incentives to drive growth.In the last quarter, total incentives reached $462 million, with partner incentives rising by 14% and consumer incentives increasing by 27% compared to the same period last year.In my view, these incentives are necessary, especially for product launches like Saver Deliveries and advanced booking for Mobility. However, I acknowledge that these incentives have an impact on the company's profitability.Speaking about profitability, another risk factor to consider is the financial services segment, which reported a negative adjusted EBITDA of $26 million in Q3 2024. Although lending revenue and the loan portfolio experienced a substantial growth of 81% YoY, the costs associated with expanding digital banking operations and potential credit risks in new lending markets could put further pressure on this segment.ConclusionTo wrap up, I maintain a strong buy rating for Grab.One of the key drivers behind my rating is the significant room for user base expansion. Annual transacting users represent only 15% of Southeast Asia's population, with only 1 in 20 Southeast Asians categorized as monthly transacting users. The rebound in tourism adds another growth lever, particularly in mobility services in Indonesia, considering the high influx of tourists coming from Australia.Other positive factors include the strong cross-selling capabilities of the company, particularly the synergy between GrabFood and GrabMart. Users who engage with both apps show nearly 5x higher order frequency and more than double the retention rate compared to single-service users.From a fundamentals perspective, the company is nearing a significant inflection point for operating income. Considering the positive trend since 2022, I believe there is a high chance for operating income to turn positive in the next 2-4 quarters.However, there are some risks to my bull thesis, including Grab's heavy reliance on incentives, which totaled $462 million last quarter. Additionally, its financial services segment remains a drag on earnings, with a negative adjusted EBITDA of $26 million in Q3 2024.Despite these challenges, I have a high conviction in Grab's growth potential and its ability to further expand in the Southeast Asian market.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":371291982561496,"gmtCreate":1731656574002,"gmtModify":1731656982201,"author":{"id":"4180611944267742","authorId":"4180611944267742","name":"Noobmaster69","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4180611944267742","authorIdStr":"4180611944267742"},"htmlText":"Grab to the mooooon","listText":"Grab to the mooooon","text":"Grab to the mooooon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/371291982561496","repostId":1177868118,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1177868118","pubTimestamp":1731655927,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177868118?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-11-15 15:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Grab Holdings: Grab This Bargain Before It Gets Too Expensive","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177868118","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryUsers active in both GrabFood and GrabMart show 5x order frequency, driving delivery revenue up 13% YoY in Q3 2024.With just 5% of the regional population using Grab monthly, there’s substantia","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_553407453\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Users active in both GrabFood and GrabMart show 5x order frequency, driving delivery revenue up 13% YoY in Q3 2024.</p></li><li><p>With just 5% of the regional population using Grab monthly, there’s substantial room for market penetration and user base expansion.</p></li><li><p>I anticipate Grab to hit positive operating income within 2-4 quarters, marking a shift in investor sentiment.</p></li><li><p>Risks include underperformance of the financial segment, with high incentive spending totaling $462 million in the last quarter.</p></li><li><p>Looking at the valuation ratios, I believe the company is still cheap, despite the recent jump in the share price. Therefore, I maintain a strong buy rating for this stock.</p></li></ul><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GRAB\">Grab Holdings Limited</a> has caught the attention of many investors after releasing its Q3 2024 earnings report, with its share price climbing 10% since the release.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/103a0d4d5ae8852784d8509d092ca997\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha\" title=\"Seeking Alpha\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p>However, looking back to August this year, the share price has increased by more than 65%.</p><p>In my view, there are strong indications that point to further growth, including the company&#39;s cross-selling strategy between GrabFood and GrabMart, and the fact that the company is just scratching the surface of the total addressable market in Southeast Asia.</p><p>With just 1 in 20 people in the region using the app monthly, the company still has a long way to go before reaching its full market potential.</p><p>In this article, I will discuss these, are more factors that make this company a strong buy.</p><p>However, I will advance here that one of these factors in my bull thesis is a critical inflection point in operating profitability in the next 2-4 quarters.</p><p>I will also discuss some of the risks that could break apart my thesis, including its incentive-driven growth model and the underperformance of the financial services segment.</p><p>Did I miss anything? Share your thoughts and join the conversation with other investors who, like you, are keeping a close eye on Grab.</p><h2 id=\"id_539315122\">Cross-Selling At Its Best</h2><p>In my view, one of the main benefits of Super Apps like Grab is how effectively they promote and sell different services within the same platform.</p><p>A clear example is the synergy between GrabFood and GrabMart.</p><p>According to the latest earnings call transcript, users who engage with both Food and Mart services show nearly 5x higher order frequency and more than double the retention rate compared to single-service users.</p><p>The cross-selling between these two platforms helped GrabMart, a newer service, grow 1.7x faster than GrabFood, a more established app in Grab&#39;s ecosystem, during the last quarter.</p><p>Overall, the delivery segment revenue grew by 13% YoY, reaching $380 million in Q3 2024.</p><p>While cross-selling played a key role in this growth, it&#39;s important not to overlook the contribution of Saver Deliveries, a low-cost delivery service, which alone made up about 32% of all delivery transactions.</p><h2 id=\"id_1295449243\">Barely Scratching the Surface of Total Addressable Market</h2><p>As you already know, Grab operates in Southeast Asia. To be specific, I considered including a comprehensive list of the countries where they operate below:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Indonesia</p></li><li><p>Malaysia</p></li><li><p>Singapore</p></li><li><p>Thailand</p></li><li><p>Vietnam</p></li><li><p>Philippines</p></li><li><p>Cambodia</p></li><li><p>Myanmar</p></li></ul><p>Unfortunately, the company doesn&#39;t break down revenue per country. However, the last earnings report mentions Indonesia as one of the main countries for Grab, with positive EBITDA achieved in this region over a year ago. Other markets, like Singapore and Malaysia, are also relevant for the company, especially in financial services.</p><p>Its market penetration can be analyzed through metrics like Monthly Transaction Volumes (MTU) and Annual Transaction Volumes (ATU).</p><p>Let&#39;s start with the first metric; MTU.</p><p>Grab reported 42 million MTUs across its platform. To put things in perspective, this value represents approximately 5% of the total Southeast Asian population.</p><p>What is even more encouraging is the ATU, standing at 15% of the Southeast Asian population. In other words, approximately 1 in 6 Southeast Asians have made a transaction in the Super App at least once a year.</p><p>With 1 in 20 people living in this region using the app on a monthly basis, the company has plenty of room for growth until they reach saturation. Especially, if the company manages to convert some of the one-off annual users (1 in 6 Southeast Asians) to recurring customers, using promotions or incentives.</p><p>Another factor to consider is the resurgence in inbound tourism in Southeast Asia, with Grab&#39;s mobility services well-positioned to capture increased mobility and delivery demand. An example is the surge of Australian tourists in Indonesia, specifically in Bali.</p><p>To wrap up this section, I believe there are clear signs that Grab is only starting to tap into the vast total addressable market in Southeast Asia.</p><h2 id=\"id_904989361\">Fundamentals</h2><p>Let&#39;s start with the income statement.</p><p>Revenue has been growing in the double digits since Q1 2022, followed by gross profit, which turned positive in Q3 2022.</p><p>However, what I found most encouraging in the income statement is the operating and net income.</p><p>Why?</p><p>Well, the operating income of the company has been in the negative figures ever since the company has been trading publicly.</p><p>However, it all points out that they will achieve its first quarter of positive operating income very soon.</p><p>How soon? In my view, no one knows for sure. It might be in the next 2 quarters, or in the next 4.</p><p>However, I believe that when this happens, the image of the company will change quite drastically among investors.</p><p>Moving on, in the last quarter, the net income of the company was positive, sitting at $26 million. This was the second time since the company has been trading publicly. However, I wouldn&#39;t pop a bottle of champagne just yet, considering that the company benefited from $87 million in net finance income for the quarter, driven by favorable currency fluctuations and higher interest income. Without this $87 million, the net income would have been negative.</p><p>The balance sheet shows consistent negative net debt since 2022. The liquidity ratios of the company look very decent. I considered including a table below with these ratios as of the end of the last quarter.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/af186752389c3563363bd6554324f910\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"178\"/></p><p>The cash flow statement shows a turning point in 2023 for both operating and free cash flows. In 2022, the company faced a cash outflow of $903 million. However, over the past 12 months, operating cash flow improved to $741 million. A similar improvement can be seen in the free cash flow as well.</p><h2 id=\"id_3822869845\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Valuation</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">A quick look at the chart below shows most of the valuation ratios of the company trading close to the 5-year minimum range.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ffb673973752e0fa3039dd9cce07c92c\" alt=\"Stock Rover\" title=\"Stock Rover\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\"/><span>Stock Rover</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The P/B ratio seems to be in the middle of this range, so I considered using P/B as the comparison metrics with its industry peers (notice not all of them are competitors).</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">I&#39;ve included a comparison table below, sorted by P/B in descending order.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6edccf94f2fe1a62ba3c1de0a901e804\" alt=\"valuation\" title=\"valuation\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"184\"/><span>valuation</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">If we use other valuation metrics, we arrive at a similar conclusion: Grab doesn&#39;t show any strong signs of overvaluation.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">As a side note to the author, my investment approach doesn&#39;t aim to predict the company&#39;s fair value, since I believe no one can do that accurately. Instead, my valuation analysis focuses on assessing whether the company is overvalued compared to its peers and its historical trends.</p><h2 id=\"id_2524728026\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Risks</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">A key risk for the company is the high reliance on incentives to drive growth.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In the last quarter, total incentives reached $462 million, with partner incentives rising by 14% and consumer incentives increasing by 27% compared to the same period last year.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In my view, these incentives are necessary, especially for product launches like Saver Deliveries and advanced booking for Mobility. However, I acknowledge that these incentives have an impact on the company&#39;s profitability.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Speaking about profitability, another risk factor to consider is the financial services segment, which reported a negative adjusted EBITDA of $26 million in Q3 2024. Although lending revenue and the loan portfolio experienced a substantial growth of 81% YoY, the costs associated with expanding digital banking operations and potential credit risks in new lending markets could put further pressure on this segment.</p><h2 id=\"id_957577369\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Conclusion</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">To wrap up, I maintain a strong buy rating for Grab.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">One of the key drivers behind my rating is the significant room for user base expansion. Annual transacting users represent only 15% of Southeast Asia&#39;s population, with only 1 in 20 Southeast Asians categorized as monthly transacting users. The rebound in tourism adds another growth lever, particularly in mobility services in Indonesia, considering the high influx of tourists coming from Australia.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Other positive factors include the strong cross-selling capabilities of the company, particularly the synergy between GrabFood and GrabMart. Users who engage with both apps show nearly 5x higher order frequency and more than double the retention rate compared to single-service users.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">From a fundamentals perspective, the company is nearing a significant inflection point for operating income. Considering the positive trend since 2022, I believe there is a high chance for operating income to turn positive in the next 2-4 quarters.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">However, there are some risks to my bull thesis, including Grab&#39;s heavy reliance on incentives, which totaled $462 million last quarter. Additionally, its financial services segment remains a drag on earnings, with a negative adjusted EBITDA of $26 million in Q3 2024.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Despite these challenges, I have a high conviction in Grab&#39;s growth potential and its ability to further expand in the Southeast Asian market.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Grab Holdings: Grab This Bargain Before It Gets Too Expensive</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGrab Holdings: Grab This Bargain Before It Gets Too Expensive\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-15 15:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4737361-grab-holdings-grab-this-bargain-before-it-gets-too-expensive><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryUsers active in both GrabFood and GrabMart show 5x order frequency, driving delivery revenue up 13% YoY in Q3 2024.With just 5% of the regional population using Grab monthly, there’s ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4737361-grab-holdings-grab-this-bargain-before-it-gets-too-expensive\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GRAB":"Grab Holdings"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4737361-grab-holdings-grab-this-bargain-before-it-gets-too-expensive","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177868118","content_text":"SummaryUsers active in both GrabFood and GrabMart show 5x order frequency, driving delivery revenue up 13% YoY in Q3 2024.With just 5% of the regional population using Grab monthly, there’s substantial room for market penetration and user base expansion.I anticipate Grab to hit positive operating income within 2-4 quarters, marking a shift in investor sentiment.Risks include underperformance of the financial segment, with high incentive spending totaling $462 million in the last quarter.Looking at the valuation ratios, I believe the company is still cheap, despite the recent jump in the share price. Therefore, I maintain a strong buy rating for this stock.Grab Holdings Limited has caught the attention of many investors after releasing its Q3 2024 earnings report, with its share price climbing 10% since the release.Seeking AlphaHowever, looking back to August this year, the share price has increased by more than 65%.In my view, there are strong indications that point to further growth, including the company's cross-selling strategy between GrabFood and GrabMart, and the fact that the company is just scratching the surface of the total addressable market in Southeast Asia.With just 1 in 20 people in the region using the app monthly, the company still has a long way to go before reaching its full market potential.In this article, I will discuss these, are more factors that make this company a strong buy.However, I will advance here that one of these factors in my bull thesis is a critical inflection point in operating profitability in the next 2-4 quarters.I will also discuss some of the risks that could break apart my thesis, including its incentive-driven growth model and the underperformance of the financial services segment.Did I miss anything? Share your thoughts and join the conversation with other investors who, like you, are keeping a close eye on Grab.Cross-Selling At Its BestIn my view, one of the main benefits of Super Apps like Grab is how effectively they promote and sell different services within the same platform.A clear example is the synergy between GrabFood and GrabMart.According to the latest earnings call transcript, users who engage with both Food and Mart services show nearly 5x higher order frequency and more than double the retention rate compared to single-service users.The cross-selling between these two platforms helped GrabMart, a newer service, grow 1.7x faster than GrabFood, a more established app in Grab's ecosystem, during the last quarter.Overall, the delivery segment revenue grew by 13% YoY, reaching $380 million in Q3 2024.While cross-selling played a key role in this growth, it's important not to overlook the contribution of Saver Deliveries, a low-cost delivery service, which alone made up about 32% of all delivery transactions.Barely Scratching the Surface of Total Addressable MarketAs you already know, Grab operates in Southeast Asia. To be specific, I considered including a comprehensive list of the countries where they operate below:IndonesiaMalaysiaSingaporeThailandVietnamPhilippinesCambodiaMyanmarUnfortunately, the company doesn't break down revenue per country. However, the last earnings report mentions Indonesia as one of the main countries for Grab, with positive EBITDA achieved in this region over a year ago. Other markets, like Singapore and Malaysia, are also relevant for the company, especially in financial services.Its market penetration can be analyzed through metrics like Monthly Transaction Volumes (MTU) and Annual Transaction Volumes (ATU).Let's start with the first metric; MTU.Grab reported 42 million MTUs across its platform. To put things in perspective, this value represents approximately 5% of the total Southeast Asian population.What is even more encouraging is the ATU, standing at 15% of the Southeast Asian population. In other words, approximately 1 in 6 Southeast Asians have made a transaction in the Super App at least once a year.With 1 in 20 people living in this region using the app on a monthly basis, the company has plenty of room for growth until they reach saturation. Especially, if the company manages to convert some of the one-off annual users (1 in 6 Southeast Asians) to recurring customers, using promotions or incentives.Another factor to consider is the resurgence in inbound tourism in Southeast Asia, with Grab's mobility services well-positioned to capture increased mobility and delivery demand. An example is the surge of Australian tourists in Indonesia, specifically in Bali.To wrap up this section, I believe there are clear signs that Grab is only starting to tap into the vast total addressable market in Southeast Asia.FundamentalsLet's start with the income statement.Revenue has been growing in the double digits since Q1 2022, followed by gross profit, which turned positive in Q3 2022.However, what I found most encouraging in the income statement is the operating and net income.Why?Well, the operating income of the company has been in the negative figures ever since the company has been trading publicly.However, it all points out that they will achieve its first quarter of positive operating income very soon.How soon? In my view, no one knows for sure. It might be in the next 2 quarters, or in the next 4.However, I believe that when this happens, the image of the company will change quite drastically among investors.Moving on, in the last quarter, the net income of the company was positive, sitting at $26 million. This was the second time since the company has been trading publicly. However, I wouldn't pop a bottle of champagne just yet, considering that the company benefited from $87 million in net finance income for the quarter, driven by favorable currency fluctuations and higher interest income. Without this $87 million, the net income would have been negative.The balance sheet shows consistent negative net debt since 2022. The liquidity ratios of the company look very decent. I considered including a table below with these ratios as of the end of the last quarter.The cash flow statement shows a turning point in 2023 for both operating and free cash flows. In 2022, the company faced a cash outflow of $903 million. However, over the past 12 months, operating cash flow improved to $741 million. A similar improvement can be seen in the free cash flow as well.ValuationA quick look at the chart below shows most of the valuation ratios of the company trading close to the 5-year minimum range.Stock RoverThe P/B ratio seems to be in the middle of this range, so I considered using P/B as the comparison metrics with its industry peers (notice not all of them are competitors).I've included a comparison table below, sorted by P/B in descending order.valuationIf we use other valuation metrics, we arrive at a similar conclusion: Grab doesn't show any strong signs of overvaluation.As a side note to the author, my investment approach doesn't aim to predict the company's fair value, since I believe no one can do that accurately. Instead, my valuation analysis focuses on assessing whether the company is overvalued compared to its peers and its historical trends.RisksA key risk for the company is the high reliance on incentives to drive growth.In the last quarter, total incentives reached $462 million, with partner incentives rising by 14% and consumer incentives increasing by 27% compared to the same period last year.In my view, these incentives are necessary, especially for product launches like Saver Deliveries and advanced booking for Mobility. However, I acknowledge that these incentives have an impact on the company's profitability.Speaking about profitability, another risk factor to consider is the financial services segment, which reported a negative adjusted EBITDA of $26 million in Q3 2024. Although lending revenue and the loan portfolio experienced a substantial growth of 81% YoY, the costs associated with expanding digital banking operations and potential credit risks in new lending markets could put further pressure on this segment.ConclusionTo wrap up, I maintain a strong buy rating for Grab.One of the key drivers behind my rating is the significant room for user base expansion. Annual transacting users represent only 15% of Southeast Asia's population, with only 1 in 20 Southeast Asians categorized as monthly transacting users. The rebound in tourism adds another growth lever, particularly in mobility services in Indonesia, considering the high influx of tourists coming from Australia.Other positive factors include the strong cross-selling capabilities of the company, particularly the synergy between GrabFood and GrabMart. Users who engage with both apps show nearly 5x higher order frequency and more than double the retention rate compared to single-service users.From a fundamentals perspective, the company is nearing a significant inflection point for operating income. Considering the positive trend since 2022, I believe there is a high chance for operating income to turn positive in the next 2-4 quarters.However, there are some risks to my bull thesis, including Grab's heavy reliance on incentives, which totaled $462 million last quarter. Additionally, its financial services segment remains a drag on earnings, with a negative adjusted EBITDA of $26 million in Q3 2024.Despite these challenges, I have a high conviction in Grab's growth potential and its ability to further expand in the Southeast Asian market.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":20,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":2,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}