拜登新政的十大影响

中信证券2020-12-10

宏观政策影响一：疫情防控成为首要任务，预计美国经济将于明年下半年开启快速复苏。北半球入冬后，美国每日新增病例达到20万例左右。与特朗普急于推动经济重启而刻意淡化疫情，导致大范围蔓延不同，拜登极为重视疫情防控。他主张将测试站点加倍，并为所有人免费检测；加快疫苗生产，并确保疫苗资源的公平获取；提高口罩等个人防护设备的生产，并要求各州强制戴口罩。近期疫苗利好消息频传，一旦拜登的各项防控计划得以落地...

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Comment（15）

Fred_6810
·2020-12-11
70%可以看一看。點個贊??
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楚枫a
·2020-12-11
這篇文章不錯，轉發給大家看
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猛逃
·2020-12-11
老美是一個政府關門了，社會也不會天塌了地方。一幫子門外?房的，瞎操什麼心[摳鼻]
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木子望月
·2020-12-11
666
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SJChai
·2020-12-11
太着急了吧？！
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安盛美妆
·2020-12-11
按新政走
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2
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Sonnymonkey
·2020-12-11
政策解讀很重要
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2hsb
·2020-12-11
拜登不被抓就不錯了吧
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行天下639800
·2020-12-11
拜登不一定說到做到，還得看他的操作。
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5
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快乐和健康
·2020-12-10
誰對我好，我選誰！～
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4
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光照的果
·2020-12-10
川普這一頁翻不翻得過去要看上帝答不答應
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8
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Ordreality
·2020-12-10
最怕的是原來以爲拜登上臺積極抗疫或者疫情好轉經濟立馬能快速恢復，結果發現遠不及預期，直接大跌
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- Ordreality:
  只要有刺激就不可能跌，反而是大家都以为安全的时候才最有可能爆发黑天鹅
  2020-12-11
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- 再饥饿也得忍着稳住:
  拜登一个现在没有登基，权利现在还在特朗普手上。特朗普现在哪有心思去救国，她一直在找机会复辟。所以我个人观点谁上去后，美股近期都不会跌，相反这段过渡时间很危险。拜登现在没有接班，过多发布政令有避嫌之说。所以特朗普觉得自己没戏了。也怠慢了。这段时间，刺激方案老火了
  2020-12-11
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- Ordreality:
  然而就算心知肚明也一样跟着博傻，人性使然。现在国内还有不少觉得中美关系还能恢复如初的呢
  2020-12-10
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敏敏猪__
·2020-12-10
第一條已經看不下去了[笑哭] 拜登怎麼重視防疫了？主張大家都在家裏禁足幾個月，國家發錢，經濟再停一停？這對股市好？
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陈新梦
·2020-12-10
都還沒上任呢，發什麼新政啊。誤導投資者
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10
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大卫之星
·2020-12-10
還不一定誰當選呢
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href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/dHIKGyDdS2jjLZjra3WUGA><strong>中信证券</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>宏观政策\n影响一：疫情防控成为首要任务，预计美国经济将于明年下半年开启快速复苏。\n北半球入冬后，美国每日新增病例达到20万例左右。与特朗普急于推动经济重启而刻意淡化疫情，导致大范围蔓延不同，拜登极为重视疫情防控。他主张将测试站点加倍，并为所有人免费检测；加快疫苗生产，并确保疫苗资源的公平获取；提高口罩等个人防护设备的生产，并要求各州强制戴口罩。\n近期疫苗利好消息频传，一旦拜登的各项防控计划得以落地...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/dHIKGyDdS2jjLZjra3WUGA\">Source 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Deal","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7aa2889034ee2b19f72dd673570dfcc","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9},"content_text":"宏观政策\n影响一：疫情防控成为首要任务，预计美国经济将于明年下半年开启快速复苏。\n北半球入冬后，美国每日新增病例达到20万例左右。与特朗普急于推动经济重启而刻意淡化疫情，导致大范围蔓延不同，拜登极为重视疫情防控。他主张将测试站点加倍，并为所有人免费检测；加快疫苗生产，并确保疫苗资源的公平获取；提高口罩等个人防护设备的生产，并要求各州强制戴口罩。\n近期疫苗利好消息频传，一旦拜登的各项防控计划得以落地，预计美国经济将于明年下半年开启快速复苏。一方面，材料、工业、旅游、交运等周期行业将得以修复；另一方面，持续的医疗资源投入会利好相关的医疗服务与制造领域。\n影响二：新一轮财政援助或分两步走，中长期将维持超宽松和超低利率环境，预计加息的时点最早要到2023年。\n今年5月，民主党发布3.4万亿美元的“英雄法案”（HEROES ACT）并获众议院通过，但受阻于参议院。9月，民主党再次提出2.2万亿美元的“瘦身”方案，仍未能与共和党达成一致。\n考虑到拜登有36年的参议员经验，跨党派协商能力较强，今年年底或明年年初，美国或先通过一轮规模在5000亿至1万亿美元之间、主要针对失业人群和中小企业的财政援助；而在拜登上台后，或推出另外一轮针对州和地方政府的财政援助。两轮援助的合计体量预计达2万亿美元左右，但第二轮的可行性和规模很大程度取决于未来美国参议院的控制权。\n预计明年美国财政赤字率仍将高达8.6%，显著高于历史均值水平。拜登已提名前任美联储主席耶伦为美国新任财长候选人，由于“鸽派”的耶伦更加重视美国经济的就业疲弱及经济乏力问题，而非过度关注通胀，因此预计财政货币化的趋势将延续。\n耶伦的上台将有助于财政部及美联储维系“宽财政+松货币”的政策组合。预计美国将中长期维持超宽松和超低利率环境。具体来看，美联储将继续聚焦恢复就业，锚定长期通胀预期在2% 的水平，维护金融体系稳定性。\n2021年预计扩表规模将达9000亿-1.5万亿美元左右，而最早加息的时间点可能要到2023年。\n影响三：中小企业、低收入人群将受到更多政策关注，依靠加税支撑政府支出、缓解赤字压力。\n作为民主党的代表，拜登更加关注中产阶级、低收入群体和中小企业的利益，主张通过更高额的公共支出和更强硬的税收调节缩小贫富差距，拜登的加税主张可能遭到参议院阻碍，能否落地有待观察。\n拜登提出“转移支付”的再分配改革计划。尽管拜登主张增加基建投资及采购支出，但也兼顾控制政府债务，也就是要通过加税来增加政府支出和控制长期赤字。具体看，他提出提高个税最高档税率至39.6%，名义企业所得税率也将从当前的21%提升至28%。\n若拜登的税收计划均能得以实现，未来十年美国财政收入预计将累计增加3.4-3.7万亿美元，相当于GDP的1.3%-1.4%，这将有效缓解美国财政赤字压力。但考虑到潜在的税收优惠政策和抵扣项，实际所得税率或仅提升3-4个百分点。对于盈利能力较强，特别是杠杆率较低的美股大盘蓝筹企业，对利润和中长期成长性的影响预计有限。\n产业发展\n影响四：继续支持美国制造业重振，将启动“买美国货”计划。\n拜登同样积极呼吁生产制造回流美国。他还将利用扩大信贷额度、制造业专项税收抵免和扩展合作伙伴计划，来增强美国中小制造企业的竞争力。他也承诺将在第一届任期内，斥资4000亿美元采购美国商品与服务，并将创造500万个就业机会。\n另外，拜登提出10年1.3万亿美元的基建投资计划，主要包括交通、能源、水利等领域，这些举措也将增加对美国产品、材料和服务的需求。\n影响五：“清洁能源革命”计划启动，美国将加码新能源产业，利空化石能源。\n拜登已提名前国务卿约翰·克里为“总统气候特使”，表态愿重签和遵守巴黎气候协定，并承诺在4年内投资2万亿美元以对抗气候变化。\n一方面，拜登支持新能源汽车产业发展，提出在全国建立50万座电动车充电桩，政府采购300万台新能源车，力争使美国在2050年之前实现100% 清洁能源经济和零净碳排放。另一方面，拜登此前提出，虽不会全面禁止开采页岩油，但会停止在美国境内的新开采项目，这可能会对化石能源行业产生一定负面影响。\n影响六：调查科技企业的垄断行为，全球科技龙头面临压力。落实奥巴马的平价医保法案，药物和医疗服务提供商的发展空间受限。\n科技方面，拜登主张调查科技企业的垄断行为，这或将对一些全球科技龙头造成压力。但预计其反垄断措施最多局限于限制未来的收购行为，而不会强迫要求巨头拆分。与反垄断对应，拜登提出将投入3000亿美元用于支持先进材料、生物医药、清洁能源、航天科技和人工智能等前沿领域，以鼓励科技行业竞争和蓬勃发展。\n医疗方面，拜登主张保护并扩大奥巴马的平价医保法案，计划为超过97%的美国人提供保险。长期来看，扩大医保范围、增加社会福利的政治主张若得以通过，药物和医疗服务提供商的发展空间将受限，相关医药企业的收入和盈利也会受到一定冲击。但短期来看，考虑到美国经济仍受疫情冲击，拜登或选择率先落实部分已通过的方案，如降低仿制药品的价格等。\n中美关系\n影响七：推翻特朗普的外交政策主张，从“退群”到“入群”，带领美国重新回到多边主义的国际框架中。\n作为曾长期任职于参议院外交关系委员会的建制派政治家，拜登始终坚持多边主义。他已经做出了重回《巴黎协定》的承诺，也表态希望重返世界卫生组织，或将以重新谈判的方式重返CPTPP，并支持恢复2015年伊核协议。拜登上台后，预计将把增强或修复盟友关系当作主要任务。\n欧洲方面，他已与欧洲主要国家领导人确认将在安全保障和气候变化等领域进行合作，重振特朗普执政时期退出的“跨大西洋伙伴关系”。亚太方面，拜登称将“坚定地致力于建立强大的韩美同盟以及和平繁荣的朝鲜半岛”，还在与日本新任首相菅义伟的通话中，强调共同建立“自由而开放的印太”。\n在对华外交方面，拜登政府将强化所谓民主和人权等“价值观”外交，对华强硬不会是拜登的首要任务，更多是作为内政经济复苏不力而衍生出的挡箭牌。新任国务卿布林肯支持奥巴马时期的“重返亚太”战略，强调构建所谓“民主国家联盟”以遏制中国发展。\n拜登可能将增加美国在亚太地区的军事存在。特朗普政府任内不仅没有发动任何一场战争，反而在从全球撤军。而拜登可能会延续奥巴马政府时期的重返亚太战略，增加在东亚地区的军事部署。\n影响八：短期并不会取消对华关税，但可能会以降低关税为“筹码”与中国进行谈判。\n12月2日，拜登称不会在对华关税上立即采取行动，希望首先对现有的贸易协定进行全面审查。拜登并不主张用关税对其他国家施加压力，并曾抨击，“唯一为贸易战付出代价的是美国农民和工人”。另外，拜登此前也做出减少贸易壁垒的承诺，并提出通过美国的盟友与国际机制来与中国进行协商谈判。\n因此，拜登更可能以降低关税和大豆等商品的采购为“筹码”与中国进行谈判，试图在知识产权保护、所谓国企补贴及相关的竞争中性等领域获取中国的让步。\n影响九：科技领域仍将保持对华强硬，并将联合盟友施压中国。\n美国希望维持在科技领域的绝对领导地位，拜登在科技创新及相关产业政策方面，同样将保持对华的强硬立场。一是继续抓住所谓国企补贴的问题，认为国有企业拥有所谓不公平的优势，并将主导未来的技术和产业。二是极度强调知识产权保护，他认为如不采取措施，“中国将继续抢夺美国和美国公司的技术”。\n特朗普政府出台的科技制裁措施不会被拜登政府马上解除，中美科技竞争的局面会延续，但手段会发生变化。拜登一方面将加大对本国技术研发的支持力度，另一方面将在国际贸易规则框架下对华施压，滥用国家安全为借口的制裁行为或将减少。\n尤其在“核高基”领域，拜登政府并不会较特朗普有所缓和，甚至将联合盟友共同对中国科技企业施压。例如，布林肯称5G方面，美国必须与盟国合作，制定有关出口管制、投资限制和技术标准的共同政策，以确保所谓“保护和促进自由民主价值观的生态系统”。\n影响十：监管趋严预计将加速中概股回归，香港市场将从中受益，2024年是最后的关键时点。\n中资企业在美上市被设下更高门槛。12月3日，《外国公司担责法案》获众议院通过。根据法案内容，若连续三年无法通过PCAOB（上市公司会计监督委员会）的审计，将被禁止在全美交易所交易。该法案还要求90天内，上市公司需披露其是否受外国政府拥有或控制。若法案在年底前生效，预计不符合要求的中概股将在2024年二季度左右被禁止交易。\n稳定的香港与创新的香港资本市场或将更多承接中概股回归红利。《国安法》的推出与后续严格实行，使香港不再过多受到内部骚乱及外部反华势力干扰；粤港澳大湾区的建设也将深化合作，为香港带来新的发展动力。\n香港资本市场的境内外枢纽作用愈发突出，一方面，同股不同权、二次上市的中概股把港股市场看作回归首选，恒指允许相关中概股纳入也进一步激发市场热情。另一方面，陆港两地互联互通机制逐步完善，科创板股票被纳入沪港通，ETF通、债券通、理财通也在加快推行，两地金融产品将更加丰富，金融市场将更趋成熟。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":395269236,"gmtCreate":1607674691425,"gmtModify":1704971647095,"author":{"id":"3563140991934227","authorId":"3563140991934227","authorIdStr":"3563140991934227","name":"Fred_6810","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbe236f23155302a4dcecbf04d2e9040","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3563140991934227"},"htmlText":"70%可以看一看。點個贊??","listText":"70%可以看一看。點個贊??","text":"70%可以看一看。點個贊??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/395269236","repostId":1177921596,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":395207952,"gmtCreate":1607662214176,"gmtModify":1704971588340,"author":{"id":"3557283473053311","authorId":"3557283473053311","authorIdStr":"3557283473053311","name":"楚枫a","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09fc7c2753637c8583e106bcb41b855","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3557283473053311"},"htmlText":"這篇文章不錯，轉發給大家看","listText":"這篇文章不錯，轉發給大家看","text":"這篇文章不錯，轉發給大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/395207952","repostId":1177921596,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":395687768,"gmtCreate":1607650419254,"gmtModify":1704971507046,"author":{"id":"3518527627041174","authorId":"3518527627041174","authorIdStr":"3518527627041174","name":"猛逃","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3518527627041174"},"htmlText":"老美是一個政府關門了，社會也不會天塌了地方。一幫子門外?房的，瞎操什麼心[摳鼻]&nbsp;","listText":"老美是一個政府關門了，社會也不會天塌了地方。一幫子門外?房的，瞎操什麼心[摳鼻]&nbsp;","text":"老美是一個政府關門了，社會也不會天塌了地方。一幫子門外?房的，瞎操什麼心[摳鼻]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/395687768","repostId":1177921596,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":395685522,"gmtCreate":1607650082566,"gmtModify":1704971504451,"author":{"id":"3568636259241053","authorId":"3568636259241053","authorIdStr":"3568636259241053","name":"木子望月","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f87ec2f14e38ba9b809b6e3ab4907a0","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3568636259241053"},"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/395685522","repostId":1177921596,"repostTy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