Netflix: Down, But Not Out

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Netflix: Down, But Not Out

seekingalpha2022-04-24

SummaryNetflix reported a historically bad quarter in Q1 2022. The company lost subscribers for the first time in a decade, and is guiding to another. Shares are down 64% YTD.Key concerns going out ...

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NhN
·2022-04-25
Hope so
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1
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CCLaunty
·2022-04-25
Take long time to recover 😞
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1
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Bharatt
·2022-04-25
Ups and downs are part of it...😃
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1
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Kim Jeong 金熔
·2022-04-25
Dip is always easier than up!
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3
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Dragonbody
·2022-04-25
[What]
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Coyotero
·2022-04-25
No easy to recover
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1
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KSHoSG
·2022-04-25
[Thinking]
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2
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redmondboy
·2022-04-25
Nice!
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Quicklearner
·2022-04-24
Low entry barriers and high competitive
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DiAngel
·2022-04-24
I didn't own Netflix. Good or bad? 🧐
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Avenite
·2022-04-24
Alright
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Keesl2216
·2022-04-24
Ok
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Tchwee56
·2022-04-24
Like
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Chris68
·2022-04-24
Ok
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JC888
·2022-04-24
Is Seeking Alpha says so.. I'm not jumping it. Any takers?? Lol
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fishfire
·2022-04-24
A good business has to go through continuous improvement. Now is the time to bet on managements' strategies to turn it around.
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Maky
·2022-04-24
Agree. Down but not out. Strong management action needed to get more subscribers be it in US or overseas, to re-examine its revenue model.
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pkyon
·2022-04-24
Noted
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VivianChua
·2022-04-24
Patient can up
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兔气扬眉
·2022-04-24
K
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The company lost subscribers for the first time in a decade, and is guiding to another. Shares are down 64% YTD.Key concerns going out ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4503162-nflx-stock-netflix-down-but-not-out\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"NFLX","symbol_name":"奈飞","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4503162-nflx-stock-netflix-down-but-not-out","article_id":"1179851383","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179851383","pubTimestamp":1650765122,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"SummaryNetflix reported a historically bad quarter in Q1 2022. The company lost subscribers for the ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"NFLX":"奈飞"},"translate_title":"Netflix,Inc.：倒下，但不是出局","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"NFLX":0.9},"content_text":"SummaryNetflix reported a historically bad quarter in Q1 2022. The company lost subscribers for the first time in a decade, and is guiding to another. Shares are down 64% YTD.Key concerns going out the earnings report: Management's ability, competition, and market saturation. Will the company turn it around?Advertising could be the next big thing for Netflix. But it also comes with a lot of uncertainty and challenges. Management has a lot on its plate right now.I give management the benefit of doubt and remain bullish, but I would not necessarily recommend buying the shares at the moment. I think there are much better opportunities out there for new money in this market.bmcent1/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesThere has been so much written and said about Netflix's (NASDAQ:NFLX) Q1 2022 report that I feel almost bad piling on to that barrage of analysis.However, as I have written very bullishly about Netflixon numerous occasions, I also feel obligated to give my short take on the quarter.Two things come to mind quickly: First, this quarter was really bad. There is no way to sugarcoat it. Second, it is time for me to eat some humble pie. All my bullish articles dating back to November 2018 are underwater and significantly underperforming the market.Alas, you can't change the past. The stock is down 64% YTD and back to levels last seen in 2018, that's a fact. So what to do going forward? While I understand everyone who sells out of the stock, I have decided to stay the course.The main two reasons for that are that I still trust management to seize their large market opportunity and that shares are oversold at the moment.Data by YChartsAssessing The DamageAs indicated in the intro, this will be a short take focussing on the big picture. I think there have been enough articles digesting the numbers and the many red flags coming out of the earnings call. If I had to summarize my three main concerns about Netflix at the moment coming out of Q1 2022, it would be the following:1. Management is behind the curveNot only the Fed seems to be behind the curve these days. In recent quarters, management has dropped the ball more often than not. We might have gotten used to investor letters showing that old chart comparing subscriber guidance with actuals (with increasingly more red dots on the picture). And we could brush that off since the company continued to add subscribers and reassured us that the future was very bright.But especially the way the company has presented the threat of competition in the last three years must raise some eyebrows now. The company went from completely neglecting it (\"We always had competition, actually we probably compete more with Fortnite than anyone else. No, we are competing with sleep!\"), to admitting it on the margin (\"Hey, some of our direct competitors have really cool stuff, but no need to worry!\"), to full crisis mode (\"Ok, we have been really flying blind during COVID. We need to crack down on password sharing, we need an advertising tier, and we need better content!\").The old mantra of\"we focus on producing quality content and once in a while ask customers a little more for the service\"seems a bit foolish in light of the current 180-turn by management.Now, management will have to figure out gaming, while simultaneously shifting their business model towards advertising (didn't they just say that gaming will be so great on their platform, because there is no advertising?), while making sure they still make amazing content to keep subscribers happy, but at the same time trying to crack down on password sharing. Of course, they will occasionally ask users to pay a little more for their great service. And, keep operating margins steady at 20%. Who said something about share buybacks? Never mind.It's a tough ask.2. Competition might kill this market for everyoneOne of the big worries from this earnings report is the viability of the streaming market as an investable space altogether. Competition might be great for content creators and the consumer (although I would argue that the current fragmentation of content is not optimal either), but it's undoubtedly really bad for investors.I think most observers were aware of competition heating up in the space. However, Netflix bulls like me have had a tendency of brushing this aside. Looking at the current growth trends and the comments from management, it is hard to sustain this argument.We have big tech monopolies' money flowing into streaming through Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) – they have little interest to make this profitable anytime soon in their broader platform strategies. We have juggernauts like Disney (DIS) and Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) going all-in on streaming, with tons of cash at their disposal – they can support streaming losses for many years with their legacy businesses' cash flows. There is ROKU (ROKU) which has a very interesting angle on streaming through solving the fragmentation problem, and a barrage of other streaming services trying to gain a foothold. Plus,other time killers that compete for customers' screen time likeTikTok, YouTube, Twitter, Instagram, and so on.The pandemic has really changed the landscape in streaming, in my opinion. Yes, it was positive for Netflix in terms of a huge subscriber and cash flow pull forward. But ultimately it helped competitors more.It forced legacy companies to really push into their streaming strategies. There were no more excuses not to. And it gave all those new streamers an incredibly easy entry into the market. This early success will motivate them, even more, to double down on their investments and compete in the space for the long term – which spells trouble for Netflix.3. The TAM might not be as big as expectedFor most Netflix bulls, it seemed given that Netflix will grow its subscriber base steadily for years if not decades. Management constantly reminded us of this huge opportunity and that we are still early on in streaming.In reality, we have seen the North America region stall for quite some time, and other regions not really picking up growth as we would like to see. At 220 million subscribers we see the first signs of maturity in the global market, and management seems very alarmed about this. There are many essential questions that have been ripped open with the recent print:How many subscribers can Netflix reach eventually? How much will they be able to charge? How much pricing power do they really have? How will advertising impact the business model? How will subscribers react to a password-sharing crackdown?Calculating Netflix's TAM always has been an easy math exercise: You take the number of subscribers at maturity, multiply it by the average revenue per user, and voilà, there you have it. Usually, it is a very big number. However, at the moment there is a lot of uncertainty about which numbers to put into that calculation. No one knows how to value Netflix at the moment, whichis really screwing with analysts' valuation models and makes it difficult to recommend the shares.Reasons To Be Upbeat StillI must admit that if I was looking at this situation from a neutral stance, I would never consider buying or holding Netflix shares right now. Just for the reason that it is incredibly difficult to figure out what will happen in the future makes this a sell. It's just too complicated; more complicated than necessary.A depressed valuation should not be the reason to invest in Netflix in my opinion.There are dozens of tech companiesout therethat are killing it in their markets, and they have also sold off dramatically in the last half-year. One such company, for example, that could be a direct beneficiary of Netflix's advertising plans could be The Trade Desk (TTD) – Jeff Green has called this move already years ago.But, unfortunately, I have committed some cardinal investment sins with Netflix, like falling in love with the stock (it's my biggest winner in terms of percentages, even after this horrible 70% price decline) or being reluctant to pay the taxes on my gains even though I realized some time ago the company was starting to slow down. For better or worse, I am stuck in this stock.So let me just quickly share how I convince (delude) myself to hold on:Contrary to all the evidence, I still believe that the investment thesis is not broken here. The company reported a subscriber reduction of -200T and guided for another decrease of 2 million in Q2. This is bad for all the reasons I mentioned above. But it does not mean that the company is done growing. And it doesn't make Netflix a lousy business overnight.I think that shares are heavily oversold at this time. Everyone who wanted to sell is out. Which makes this a terrible time to sell the stock if you still believe in the company. As CNBC's chart master Carter Worth noted, this stock is not a falling knife, this is more like a falling piano. So catching it is obviously scary. But I would argue that the piano hasalreadylanded and there is not a lot of downside risk left.On the plus side, if there is any management team out there that can thrive through adversity, it is Netflix. They have always been an exemplar of excellence. They killed their own DVD-by-mail business to go all-in on streaming. They anticipated their need to produce original content way before studios pulled the plug. And, they ramped up their business internationally in a rapid fashion reaching an enormous scale.The big change that will happen now – the next chapter – is advertising. This will open up their market considerably but it will also potentially impact the user experience, and lead to cannibalization. It's a tough challenge but it's also an opportunity with a lot of open questions.The bottom line is that all positives about Netflix – their great business model, competitive advantages, and large market opportunity – are not obsolete just because of a couple of bad quarters. Netflix is down, but not out.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9084889549,"gmtCreate":1650847107300,"gmtModify":1676534801891,"author":{"id":"4100992207213510","authorId":"4100992207213510","name":"NhN","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9431adc106baf6c2071e80eb8842b434","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Hope so","listText":"Hope so","text":"Hope so","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9084889549","repostId":1179851383,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9084168263,"gmtCreate":1650842293718,"gmtModify":1676534799742,"author":{"id":"4097397237133540","authorId":"4097397237133540","name":"CCLaunty","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cac20c3eb0c4baab5ee77afa74663b07","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Take long time to recover 😞","listText":"Take long time to recover 😞","text":"Take long time to recover 😞","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9084168263","repostId":1179851383,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9084169681,"gmtCreate":1650842085818,"gmtModify":1676534799657,"author":{"id":"4110517357648632","authorId":"4110517357648632","name":"Bharatt","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/01b61334ecaa34be386b848cc6733aa1","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Ups&nbsp;and downs are&nbsp;part of it...😃","listText":"Ups&nbsp;and downs are&nbsp;part of it...😃","text":"Ups and downs are part of it...😃","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9084169681","repostId":1179851383,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9084134477,"gmtCreate":1650839978325,"gmtModify":1676534798987,"author":{"id":"4095144458401720","authorId":"4095144458401720","name":"Kim Jeong 金熔","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/d9e9713d8ea2eb8ae9bc5e25fb660a1a","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Dip is always easier than up!","listText":"Dip is always easier than up!","text":"Dip is always easier than up!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9084134477","repostId":1179851383,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9084133468,"gmtCreate":1650839383398,"gmtModify":1676534798849,"author":{"id":"4109052217286120","authorId":"4109052217286120","name":"Dragonbody","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8c619fa4bf1941f68f7764c4f6441991","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[What]&nbsp;","listText":"[What]&nbsp;","text":"[What]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9084133468","repostId":1179851383,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9084378929,"gmtCreate":1650834009766,"gmtModify":1676534798050,"author":{"id":"4088603056259110","authorId":"4088603056259110","name":"Coyotero","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/574bc8dfeae125970c5216cebb00264f","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"No easy to recover&nbsp;","listText":"No easy to recover&nbsp;","text":"No easy to recover","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9084378929","repostId":1179851383,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9084344562,"gmtCreate":1650821553007,"gmtModify":1676534797945,"author":{"id":"3575616552570301","authorId":"3575616552570301","name":"KSHoSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9e9c60ddd65dd7dca218423e8951ee3","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[Thinking]&nbsp;","listText":"[Thinking]&nbsp;","text":"[Thinking]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9084344562","repostId":1179851383,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9084352293,"gmtCreate":1650816074367,"gmtModify":1676534797670,"author":{"id":"4107259430901220","authorId":"4107259430901220","name":"redmondboy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d129d0378085bb9b03f25e02e69ed49c","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a8758340a08196056f8bc1e54805193","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"Nice!","listText":"Nice!","text":"Nice!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9084352293","repostId":1179851383,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9084359251,"gmtCreate":1650815132051,"gmtModify":1676534797582,"author":{"id":"3574936639222161","authorId":"3574936639222161","name":"Quicklearner","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"Low entry barriers and high competitive&nbsp;","listText":"Low entry barriers and high competitive&nbsp;","text":"Low entry barriers and high competitive","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9084359251","repostId":1179851383,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9084339231,"gmtCreate":1650808560403,"gmtModify":1676534796177,"author":{"id":"4100833454173050","authorId":"4100833454173050","name":"DiAngel","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f7c2ee91188421bf874cdbc97fb77886","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"I didn't own Netflix. Good or bad? 🧐","listText":"I didn't own Netflix. Good or bad? 🧐","text":"I didn't own Netflix. Good or bad? 🧐","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9084339231","repostId":1179851383,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9084972506,"gmtCreate":1650803908501,"gmtModify":1676534795516,"author":{"id":"4101299314304390","authorId":"4101299314304390","name":"Avenite","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7cb9f66c2dfcd97ff88a4cdff7fe2ed","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"Alright","listText":"Alright","text":"Alright","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9084972506","repostId":1179851383,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9084986383,"gmtCreate":1650793419285,"gmtModify":1676534794162,"author":{"id":"3583308786901817","authorId":"3583308786901817","name":"Keesl2216","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf5a5bc28fd3466f4026f379714f28e0","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9084986383","repostId":1179851383,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9084981817,"gmtCreate":1650793008924,"gmtModify":1676534794127,"author":{"id":"3569457005614885","authorId":"3569457005614885","name":"Tchwee56","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf5f966c61e6a7efe5375ef68070f8d0","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9084981817","repostId":1179851383,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9084937388,"gmtCreate":1650790290748,"gmtModify":1676534793764,"author":{"id":"3575974639321365","authorId":"3575974639321365","name":"Chris68","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ae39a12c3ba237f3b001689ec9a549b","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9084937388","repostId":1179851383,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9084930589,"gmtCreate":1650788793773,"gmtModify":1676534793556,"author":{"id":"3570103090255456","authorId":"3570103090255456","name":"JC888","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f3e3c0218599fca5c4e265ddbee1fb32","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"Is Seeking Alpha says so.. I'm not jumping it. Any takers?? Lol","listText":"Is Seeking Alpha says so.. I'm not jumping it. Any takers?? Lol","text":"Is Seeking Alpha says so.. I'm not jumping it. Any takers?? Lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9084930589","repostId":1179851383,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9084905370,"gmtCreate":1650785983734,"gmtModify":1676534793065,"author":{"id":"3572518581615323","authorId":"3572518581615323","name":"fishfire","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5ceab71416b120bab4604c0754b52a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"A good business has to go through continuous improvement.&nbsp;Now is the time to bet&nbsp;on managements' strategies to turn it around.","listText":"A good business has to go through continuous improvement.&nbsp;Now is the time to bet&nbsp;on managements' strategies to turn it around.","text":"A good business has to go through continuous improvement. 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