Stock futures fell Thursday after better-than-expected jobs data increased investors’ anxiety around the path of interest rates.
At 8:50 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 279 points, or 0.81%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 41 points, or 0.91%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 180.25 points, or 1.17%.
Private sector jobs increased by 497,000 in June, according to data from payroll processing firm ADP. That’s more than double the 220,000 Dow Jones consensus estimate and also far better than the downwardly revised 267,000 gain seen in May. June saw the biggest monthly increase since July 2022.
The ADP data, which is often unreliable and more volatile than other jobs data, comes ahead of Friday's official June payrolls report. Economists are expecting 240,000 non-farm payrolls were added last month, a slowing from the 339,000 jobs added in May, according to Dow Jones. However, traders may now be expecting a hotter number that leads to the Fed resuming its hiking campaign this month after a pause. The central bank next decides on interest rates on July 26.
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased moderately last week, pointing to only a gradual easing in labor market conditions.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 248,000 for the week ended July 1, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 245,000 claims for the latest week.
Claims jumped to a 20-month high in the first three weeks of June amid a broadening in layoffs beyond the technology sector and interest rate-sensitive industries like housing and finance. Minnesota recently extended eligibility for state unemployment benefits to tens of thousands hourly paid school workers during the summer break, also contributing to the rise in filings.
U.S. stock indexes slipped in the previous session after the Fed minutes showed a vast majority of the policymakers expected further policy tightening, even as they agreed to hold rates steady in June.
The shortened trading week resumed Wednesday for a losing session after a break for the Fourth of July holiday. The major indexes logged modest losses. Wall Street combed through minutes from June’s Federal Reserve policy meeting, which showed that most officials would support more increases ahead.
Traders are pricing in a nearly 89% chance of a hike at the central bank’s meeting this month, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
“Fed chair Powell has made it clear that he is absolutely committed to seeing this 2% target reached, and so, I think it pretty much means that it’s a when, not an if, as far as additional hikes are concerned later this year,” CIC Wealth’s Malcolm Ethridge said on CNBC’s “Closing Bell.”