美银“打脸”美联储：哪有什么“暂时性”通胀？

华尔街见闻2021-06-11

美联储真的如市场相信的那样，可以轻易把高通胀的潘多拉魔盒关上？美银不同意：“历史表明，一旦通胀走高，就很难在不引发经济衰退的情况下加以控制”。美国通胀又爆表了，但市场似乎已经无所畏惧，美股美债齐齐大涨。投资者们似乎已经开始相信美联储的那一套说辞：通胀嘛，只是暂时走高而已。然而，美国银行首席经济学家Michelle Meyer却直言：我们不买账！在她看来，随着劳动力短缺和通胀迹象不断出现，...

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Comment（48）

王雷王雷
·2021-06-12
好
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股网金来_tiger
·2021-06-12
美蒂怎麼啦
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Nicole_L
·2021-06-12
別人恐懼我貪婪！別人貪婪我恐懼！
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2
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- 股坛小弟:
  现金为王！
  2021-06-12
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虎琊
·2021-06-12
666
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LittleGuiLin
·2021-06-12
並沒有影響股市創新高。[笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭]
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1
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Ysw16888
·2021-06-12
讚我回覆我
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1
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鸟语花香在坡县
·2021-06-12
[微笑]
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1
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快乐是一种信仰
·2021-06-12
美股要玩暴漲暴跌了嗎？
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Kokmun0087
·2021-06-12
多謝分亨
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peterlau
·2021-06-12
如果通膨還上漲，我們要不先把美股賣掉？
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Fred_6810
·2021-06-12
下三流的媒體，跟華爾街有一毛錢關係嗎？沒有。跟誰誰誰是緊密關係。呵呵
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NELSONCY
·2021-06-12
暫時通脹罷了 [齜牙] [財迷] [看漲] [強]
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1
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kim_8904
·2021-06-12
[微笑]
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Hhhhhhkk
·2021-06-12
啥時候會大跌呢
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云里梦里飞
·2021-06-12
任務評論一分走人
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1
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- Alicia Ling:
  一般上老板娘都很老，我不老?早
  2021-06-13
  Reply
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- Alicia Ling:
  我帮你?
  2021-06-12
  Reply
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- 云里梦里飞:
  谢谢老板娘 [捂脸] [财迷]
  2021-06-13
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fongthir
·2021-06-12
666
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1
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zh2021
·2021-06-12
[得意]
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3
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Weimar
·2021-06-12
任務
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4
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- SP2021:
  赞
  2021-06-12
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SP2021
·2021-06-12
通脹就是通脹，搞個暫時性通脹騙人
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- Weimar:
  赞
  2021-06-12
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浴缸潜水员
·2021-06-12
還不會做空的朋友可以開始學了。
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1、劳动力短缺将在秋季消失，届时失业福利将减少，儿童保育更好找，对于在工作岗位上感染新冠病毒的担忧也将减退；\n\n\n 2、商品生产的瓶颈是由特殊的冲击造成的。随着生产回暖，需求从商品转向服务，瓶颈就将逐渐消失；\n\n\n 3、随着过去供应中断的影响消退，劳动力短缺出现缓解以及商品需求增长减速，贸易瓶颈也将得到缓解；\n\n\n 4、价格纯粹是暂时性上涨，而且是针对了特定行业。随着供应回升，涨势也将消退；\n\n\n 5、从定义出发，价格通胀的任一方面都是暂时性走高，因为产出缺口仍旧存在，而持续的价格压力则需要缺口消失；\n\n\n 6、薪资上涨主要出现在工资较低的工作当中。这是一件好事，因为这有助于缩小收入差距；\n\n\n 7、近年来，薪资水平和物价通胀之间的联系有所减弱。我们仍旧应该庆祝，而非哀叹工资上涨；\n\n\n 8、从定义出发，薪资增速的任一方面都是暂时性增长，因为失业率仍旧太高，无法产生持续的薪资压力；\n\n\n 9、密歇根大学通胀预期指数已经飙升，但这是对显而易见的食物和能源价格上涨的过度反应；当这两大价格走低时，通胀预期也会消退；\n\n\n 10、从历史上看，只有在实际通胀持续高企一段时间之后，通胀预期才会走高；最近的上涨一定是侥幸；\n\n\n 11、盈亏平衡通胀率只是温和上升，如果真的存在问题，债市会告诉我们一切；\n\n\n 12、忽略那些有关通胀预期的粗略调查，对专业经济学家的调查仍旧认为，长期来看，通胀将达到美联储的目标。\n\n美国银行还指出，最重要的一点在于，市场相信“不要担心通胀过高，因为美联储可以竭尽所能地加息，以此来冷却通胀”。\n对此，金融博客Zero Hedge直接讽刺道：美联储行得很，不仅可以用加息来冷却通胀，还可以让宝贝美股在15分钟之内就崩盘呢。\n不过值得注意的是，市场的上述观点，多多少少都还算有一些道理。那么，美国银行在担心什么？\nMeyer认为，若将近期所有的通胀问题均视为“暂时出现”，这并不合情理。最关键的地方是，这些“暂时性”压力可能会持续好几个月，并可能成为通胀心理学当中的固有因素。\n她还称，考虑到美国货币和财政当局已经用言语和行动表明，他们希望未来几年经济过热、通胀走高，上述可能性就变得非常之大。\n对于“美联储可以轻易把高通胀的潘多拉魔盒关上”的说法，美国银行也并不认同：\n\n 近几十年来，我们从未有过持续的高通胀。\n 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