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LittleGuiLin
LittleGuiLin
·
2021-06-04
Why smoking is still a thing
E-Cigarette Giant Mercury Retrograde! Smore International Short-Term Diving Falls Nearly 11%
6月4日，港股电子烟巨头思摩尔国际午后短线跳水，现跌近11%。此前国家卫健委和世卫组织驻华代表处共同发布《中国吸烟危害健康报告2020》（下称《报告》）称，“有充分证据表明电子烟是不安全的，会对健康产
E-Cigarette Giant Mercury Retrograde! Smore International Short-Term Diving Falls Nearly 11%
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LittleGuiLin
LittleGuiLin
·
2021-06-03
$Opera(OPRA)$
Come back please
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LittleGuiLin
LittleGuiLin
·
2021-06-03
Don’t think Musk attention is on Tesla now. Hence it sinks. Like other meme
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LittleGuiLin
LittleGuiLin
·
2021-06-03
Institute always win.
Behind AMC's 3000% Surge in the Year: Rare CEOs and Rare Deals
Reddit散户无视AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc．财务困境和被严重做空的状况大举买入，推动其股价今年以来上涨了3000%左右。这家连锁院线公司也在趁机迎合这种“网红股”
Behind AMC's 3000% Surge in the Year: Rare CEOs and Rare Deals
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LittleGuiLin
LittleGuiLin
·
2021-06-02
Meanwhile, just 1 month ago everyone was talking as if oil and other fossil energy is already the past.
Resource Stocks Hi! International Oil Price Returns to $70, Global Market Supply Shortage?
产油国预计市场或面临供应短缺问题，加上美国夏季驾驶季带来的燃料需求增加，国际油价在6月首个交易日“起飞”。 布伦特原油价格重新回到每桶70美元关口上方，为3月以来最高。 原油市场或面临供应短缺 5月
Resource Stocks Hi! International Oil Price Returns to $70, Global Market Supply Shortage?
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LittleGuiLin
LittleGuiLin
·
2021-06-02
Didn’t US just sold several billion dollars of confiscated Iranian oil?
How Does Crude Oil Prices Continue to Rise, Affect Inflation and Global Manufacturers?
原油价格周二触及每桶70美元上方，此前欧佩克及其盟友（OPEC+）预测需求将上升并提高产量。全球经济持续复苏，并推高了一系列大宗商品的价格。 具体来看，周二美油7月合约收涨2.52%，报67.99美元
How Does Crude Oil Prices Continue to Rise, Affect Inflation and Global Manufacturers?
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LittleGuiLin
LittleGuiLin
·
2021-06-02
Yet, Taiwan still suffers electricity frequent blackout and water shortages. Both are very troubling for TSMC production.
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LittleGuiLin
LittleGuiLin
·
2021-06-01
$Opera(OPRA)$
still waiting for comeback
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LittleGuiLin
LittleGuiLin
·
2021-06-01
Best strategy: ask people for 3rd child.
A-share investment strategy in the second half of the year: downplaying cyclical thinking and focusing on growth and consumption
“帆起”代表全球经济的共振复苏，以及投资者风险偏好提升，“逐浪高”代表市场上行动能将逐渐增强，A股下半年将进入慢涨“三部曲”中的共振上行期，且四季度空间更大。全球经济共振复苏，通胀扰动高点已过，国内政
A-share investment strategy in the second half of the year: downplaying cyclical thinking and focusing on growth and consumption
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LittleGuiLin
LittleGuiLin
·
2021-05-31
HSBC needs to replace its all British management team and drop the arrogance
HSBC "tailbreaking"
1、「撤退」 最近，汇丰控股（下简称「汇丰」）宣布退出美国零售市场，同时将重点关注财富管理和国际银行业务，目前正等待监管机构批准。 汇丰将采取的具体措施包括，停止为美国个人客户、高级客户及部分卓越理财
HSBC "tailbreaking"
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smoking is still a thing","listText":"Why smoking is still a thing","text":"Why smoking is still a thing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/116839354","repostId":"1101429554","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101429554","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622785872,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101429554?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-04 13:51","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"E-Cigarette Giant Mercury Retrograde! Smore International Short-Term Diving Falls Nearly 11%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101429554","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月4日，港股电子烟巨头思摩尔国际午后短线跳水，现跌近11%。此前国家卫健委和世卫组织驻华代表处共同发布《中国吸烟危害健康报告2020》（下称《报告》）称，“有充分证据表明电子烟是不安全的，会对健康产","content":"<p>On June 4, the e-cigarette giant in Hong Kong stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06969\">Smol International</a>Short-term dive in the afternoon, now down nearly 11%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cb399b33f3816c05fda671e717e8918\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Previously, the National Health Commission and the WHO Representative Office in China jointly released the Report 2020 on Health Hazards of Smoking in China (hereinafter referred to as the Report), stating that \"there is sufficient evidence that e-cigarettes are unsafe and will cause harm to health\".</p><p>As the first e-cigarette stock in China, Smore International has achieved 64 times the myth of benefit in 28 months, and its market value is close to the 500 billion Hong Kong dollar mark.</p><p>As the main uncertainty in the field of e-cigarettes comes from the government, Smol International cooperates with China Tobacco to avoid policy risks, and at the same time, with its excellent technology, it has reached cooperation with world-renowned e-cigarette brands such as Ruike and Japan Tobacco. Therefore, Smol International is undoubtedly at the forefront.</p><p>However, this \"regulatory storm\" has made it difficult for Smol International. For the brand itself, the announcement of this report seems to have been sentenced to \"life imprisonment\", and when to counterattack is still far away. However, as a foundry with core technology, its export business will become its main business or become a temporary choice. According to the company's 2020 financial report, Smore International's foreign revenue accounts for 29.9%.</p><p>Standing in the upstream of the industry, Smol International is faced with policy supervision. In the short term, the impact of domestic policies is indeed limited when foreign income is the main factor, but in the long term, the trend of domestic policies is bound to affect the growth space of Smol International.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>E-Cigarette Giant Mercury Retrograde! 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Smore International Short-Term Diving Falls Nearly 11%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-04 13:51</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 4, the e-cigarette giant in Hong Kong stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06969\">Smol International</a>Short-term dive in the afternoon, now down nearly 11%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cb399b33f3816c05fda671e717e8918\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Previously, the National Health Commission and the WHO Representative Office in China jointly released the Report 2020 on Health Hazards of Smoking in China (hereinafter referred to as the Report), stating that \"there is sufficient evidence that e-cigarettes are unsafe and will cause harm to health\".</p><p>As the first e-cigarette stock in China, Smore International has achieved 64 times the myth of benefit in 28 months, and its market value is close to the 500 billion Hong Kong dollar mark.</p><p>As the main uncertainty in the field of e-cigarettes comes from the government, Smol International cooperates with China Tobacco to avoid policy risks, and at the same time, with its excellent technology, it has reached cooperation with world-renowned e-cigarette brands such as Ruike and Japan Tobacco. Therefore, Smol International is undoubtedly at the forefront.</p><p>However, this \"regulatory storm\" has made it difficult for Smol International. For the brand itself, the announcement of this report seems to have been sentenced to \"life imprisonment\", and when to counterattack is still far away. However, as a foundry with core technology, its export business will become its main business or become a temporary choice. According to the company's 2020 financial report, Smore International's foreign revenue accounts for 29.9%.</p><p>Standing in the upstream of the industry, Smol International is faced with policy supervision. In the short term, the impact of domestic policies is indeed limited when foreign income is the main factor, but in the long term, the trend of domestic policies is bound to affect the growth space of Smol International.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"06969":"思摩尔国际"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101429554","content_text":"6月4日，港股电子烟巨头思摩尔国际午后短线跳水，现跌近11%。此前国家卫健委和世卫组织驻华代表处共同发布《中国吸烟危害健康报告2020》（下称《报告》）称，“有充分证据表明电子烟是不安全的，会对健康产生危害”。作为中国电子烟第一股，思摩尔国际曾用28个月实现64倍的造福神话，市值直逼5000亿港元大关。由于电子烟领域的主要不确定性来自于政府，思摩尔国际与中烟合作借此规避政策风险，同时凭借其过硬技术与锐刻、日烟等全球知名电子烟品牌商达成合作，因此思摩尔国际无疑是走在潮头之列。但此次的“监管风暴”让思摩尔国际犯了难。对于品牌本身来说，此报告的公布似乎是已被判“无期徒刑”，何时逆袭还遥遥无期，但作为拥有核心科技的代工厂，其出口业务转为主营业务或将成为暂时性选择，据公司2020年财报显示，思摩尔国际的国外收入占比为29.9%。站在行业上游的思摩尔国际，面对政策监管，从短期看，以国外收入为主的情况下国内政策影响的确有限，但从长期看，国内政策走向势必影响思摩尔国际的增长空间。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"06969":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118033850,"gmtCreate":1622706942470,"gmtModify":1704189311119,"author":{"id":"3575540187585339","authorId":"3575540187585339","name":"LittleGuiLin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8ea4a9904bb4298320579358e26ac9b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575540187585339","idStr":"3575540187585339"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OPRA\">$Opera(OPRA)$</a>Come back please","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OPRA\">$Opera(OPRA)$</a>Come back please","text":"$Opera(OPRA)$Come back please","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f185e30c2f5d8eeb256bc5a7067a8d26","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/118033850","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3429,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118030741,"gmtCreate":1622706842183,"gmtModify":1704189309496,"author":{"id":"3575540187585339","authorId":"3575540187585339","name":"LittleGuiLin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8ea4a9904bb4298320579358e26ac9b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575540187585339","idStr":"3575540187585339"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Don’t think Musk attention is on Tesla now. Hence it sinks. Like other meme","listText":"Don’t think Musk attention is on Tesla now. Hence it sinks. Like other meme","text":"Don’t think Musk attention is on Tesla now. Hence it sinks. Like other meme","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/118030741","repostId":"1165382466","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3601,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118030309,"gmtCreate":1622706777501,"gmtModify":1704189308527,"author":{"id":"3575540187585339","authorId":"3575540187585339","name":"LittleGuiLin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8ea4a9904bb4298320579358e26ac9b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575540187585339","idStr":"3575540187585339"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Institute always win. ","listText":"Institute always win. ","text":"Institute always win.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/118030309","repostId":"1159708995","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159708995","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622705912,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1159708995?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-03 15:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Behind AMC's 3000% Surge in the Year: Rare CEOs and Rare Deals","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159708995","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"Reddit散户无视AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc．财务困境和被严重做空的状况大举买入，推动其股价今年以来上涨了3000%左右。这家连锁院线公司也在趁机迎合这种“网红股”","content":"<p>Reddit retail investors are buying heavily in defiance of AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc.'s financial woes and heavily shorted status, pushing its stock up around 3,000% this year. This chain cinema company is also taking the opportunity to cater to this \"online celebrity stock\" phenomenon.</p><p>The company announced Wednesday that it would reward retail investors with special screenings and free popcorn, among other means. A day earlier, AMC took advantage of a surging share price to raise $230 million by selling new shares to one of its major creditors, Mudrick Capital Management, in a bid to consolidate its finances.</p><p>However, Mudrick immediately sold all AMC shares, making a huge profit, and said the company's shares were significantly overvalued. But Reddit retail investors don't share this view. Encouraged by AMC's pandering to retail investors, the stock at one point surged 127% to an intraday high Wednesday, rising its market cap to about $33 billion, surpassing GameStop's market cap of about $20 billion.</p><p>\"A lot of our investors have shown support and confidence in AMC…After all, these people are the owners of AMC and I work for them,\" AMC CEO Adam Aron said in a statement released Wednesday.</p><p>As of March 11, more than 3.2 million retail investors held AMC stock, more than 80% of its investor base, according to the statement. Aron spoke directly to many new retail investors on his quarterly conference call early last month, praising their enthusiasm and determination.</p><p>He then called on skeptical equity analysts to listen to these investors-\"look at what these people write\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c3a8868864500565a4229b7111fafa6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Fundamentals unchanged</b></p><p>Almost never has an American corporate executive welcomed the retail power like Aron. But almost no company has benefited from this group like AMC.</p><p>AMC was on the verge of bankruptcy a few months ago. However, retail investors vowing to subvert the traditional corporate value model have flooded in, pushing up AMC's stock price, making it a representative of online celebrity stocks like GameStop. The frenzy has left Wall Street professionals bewildered.</p><p>\"Obviously the fundamentals are completely unsupportive of this common stock level (which makes sense to Reddit retail investors),\" Mark Levin of Asterisk Advisors wrote in the report.</p><p>The jump in the stock price hasn't changed the company's earnings outlook. Analysts have steadily lowered the company's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization estimates as the impact of COVID hasn't been erased, and now expect AMC to lose nearly $100 million before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization over the next 12 months.</p><p>AMC declined to comment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/142cec36bd99e4ac4f992c126628229b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Rising AMC liabilities have also exacerbated the fundamental woes. The company's long-term liabilities rose to $5.4 billion in the first quarter of this year, nearly tripling from less than $2 billion in 2016.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cabcacae95b3553223887737cbd0a6b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Rare Stock Buying and Selling</b></p><p>Savvy investors like Mudrick see the surging AMC share price as a unique opportunity to make quick money.</p><p>In the U.S. market, fundraising through the sale of shares to a single holder is relatively rare. And it is almost unheard of for holders to buy shares and sell them immediately. In this case, Mudrick's role in AMC's stock offering is somewhat similar to that of an underwriter in a public offering.</p><p>A Mudrick representative declined to comment, and AMC did not respond to a request for comment.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind AMC's 3000% Surge in the Year: Rare CEOs and Rare Deals</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind AMC's 3000% Surge in the Year: Rare CEOs and Rare Deals\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-03 15:38</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Reddit retail investors are buying heavily in defiance of AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc.'s financial woes and heavily shorted status, pushing its stock up around 3,000% this year. This chain cinema company is also taking the opportunity to cater to this \"online celebrity stock\" phenomenon.</p><p>The company announced Wednesday that it would reward retail investors with special screenings and free popcorn, among other means. A day earlier, AMC took advantage of a surging share price to raise $230 million by selling new shares to one of its major creditors, Mudrick Capital Management, in a bid to consolidate its finances.</p><p>However, Mudrick immediately sold all AMC shares, making a huge profit, and said the company's shares were significantly overvalued. But Reddit retail investors don't share this view. Encouraged by AMC's pandering to retail investors, the stock at one point surged 127% to an intraday high Wednesday, rising its market cap to about $33 billion, surpassing GameStop's market cap of about $20 billion.</p><p>\"A lot of our investors have shown support and confidence in AMC…After all, these people are the owners of AMC and I work for them,\" AMC CEO Adam Aron said in a statement released Wednesday.</p><p>As of March 11, more than 3.2 million retail investors held AMC stock, more than 80% of its investor base, according to the statement. Aron spoke directly to many new retail investors on his quarterly conference call early last month, praising their enthusiasm and determination.</p><p>He then called on skeptical equity analysts to listen to these investors-\"look at what these people write\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c3a8868864500565a4229b7111fafa6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Fundamentals unchanged</b></p><p>Almost never has an American corporate executive welcomed the retail power like Aron. But almost no company has benefited from this group like AMC.</p><p>AMC was on the verge of bankruptcy a few months ago. However, retail investors vowing to subvert the traditional corporate value model have flooded in, pushing up AMC's stock price, making it a representative of online celebrity stocks like GameStop. The frenzy has left Wall Street professionals bewildered.</p><p>\"Obviously the fundamentals are completely unsupportive of this common stock level (which makes sense to Reddit retail investors),\" Mark Levin of Asterisk Advisors wrote in the report.</p><p>The jump in the stock price hasn't changed the company's earnings outlook. Analysts have steadily lowered the company's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization estimates as the impact of COVID hasn't been erased, and now expect AMC to lose nearly $100 million before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization over the next 12 months.</p><p>AMC declined to comment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/142cec36bd99e4ac4f992c126628229b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Rising AMC liabilities have also exacerbated the fundamental woes. The company's long-term liabilities rose to $5.4 billion in the first quarter of this year, nearly tripling from less than $2 billion in 2016.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cabcacae95b3553223887737cbd0a6b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Rare Stock Buying and Selling</b></p><p>Savvy investors like Mudrick see the surging AMC share price as a unique opportunity to make quick money.</p><p>In the U.S. market, fundraising through the sale of shares to a single holder is relatively rare. And it is almost unheard of for holders to buy shares and sell them immediately. In this case, Mudrick's role in AMC's stock offering is somewhat similar to that of an underwriter in a public offering.</p><p>A Mudrick representative declined to comment, and AMC did not respond to a request for comment.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/765eea7b8efcd21c54c30bb5f35bff0d","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159708995","content_text":"Reddit散户无视AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc．财务困境和被严重做空的状况大举买入，推动其股价今年以来上涨了3000%左右。这家连锁院线公司也在趁机迎合这种“网红股”现象。\n该公司周三宣布将以特别放映和免费爆米花等手段奖励散户投资者。一天前，AMC借股价飙升之机向主要债权人之一Mudrick Capital Management出售新股筹资2.3亿美元，以巩固财务状况。\n不过Mudrick旋即就卖掉了所有AMC股票，获利颇丰，并称该公司股价被严重高估。但是Reddit散户并不认同这种观点。受到AMC迎合散户的鼓舞，该股周三一度飙升127%至盘中最高纪录，市值升至约330亿美元，超过GameStop约200亿美元的市值。\n“我们很多投资者都表现出对AMC的支持和信心……毕竟，这些人是AMC的所有者，而我为他们打工，”AMC首席执行官Adam Aron在周三发表的声明中表示。\n根据声明，截至3月11日，超过320万散户投资者持有AMC股票，超过其投资者基础的80%。Aron在上月初举行的季度电话会议上直接跟许多新散户投资者对话，赞扬他们的热情和决心。\n接着，他呼吁持怀疑态度的股票分析师听听这些投资者的心声--“看看这些人写的东西”。\n\n基本面未改\n几乎从未有哪个美国公司高管像Aron这样欢迎散户势力。不过也几乎没有哪个公司像AMC这样得益于这个群体。\nAMC几个月前还濒临破产。然而誓要颠覆传统公司价值模型的散户涌了进来，推升了AMC股价，使之成为像GameStop一样的网红股代表。这种狂热让华尔街专业人士困惑不已。\n“显然基本面是完全不支持这个普通股水平的（对Reddit散户来说却讲得通），”Asterisk Advisors的Mark Levin在报告中写道。\n股价大涨并没有改变该公司盈利前景。由于新冠疫情影响尚未消除，分析师稳步下调该公司息税折旧摊销前利润预期，目前预计AMC未来12个月息税折旧摊销前亏损近1亿美元。\nAMC不予置评。\n\nAMC负债上升也加剧了基本面困境。该公司截至今年一季度长期负债升至54亿美元，从2016年的不到20亿美元增长了近两倍。\n\n罕见的股票买卖\n像Mudrick这样精明的投资者把AMC股价飙升视为赚快钱的独特机会。\n在美国市场，通过向单一持有人出售股票筹资的情况相对少见。而持有人购买股票后立即抛售的情况更是几乎闻所未闻。在这种情况下，Mudrick在AMC发行股票中扮演的角色跟公开发行中承销商的角色有些相似。\nMudrick代表不予置评，AMC没有回应置评请求。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3574,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":113192381,"gmtCreate":1622596899643,"gmtModify":1704186998261,"author":{"id":"3575540187585339","authorId":"3575540187585339","name":"LittleGuiLin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8ea4a9904bb4298320579358e26ac9b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575540187585339","idStr":"3575540187585339"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Meanwhile, just 1 month ago everyone was talking as if oil and other fossil energy is already the past.","listText":"Meanwhile, just 1 month ago everyone was talking as if oil and other fossil energy is already the past.","text":"Meanwhile, just 1 month ago everyone was talking as if oil and other fossil energy is already the past.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/113192381","repostId":"1147734278","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147734278","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622594142,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1147734278?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-02 08:35","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Resource Stocks Hi! International Oil Price Returns to $70, Global Market Supply Shortage?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147734278","media":"上海证券报","summary":"产油国预计市场或面临供应短缺问题，加上美国夏季驾驶季带来的燃料需求增加，国际油价在6月首个交易日“起飞”。\n布伦特原油价格重新回到每桶70美元关口上方，为3月以来最高。\n\n原油市场或面临供应短缺\n5月","content":"<p><div>Oil-producing countries expect the market to face supply shortages, coupled with the increase in fuel demand brought by the summer driving season in the United States, and the international oil price \"took off\" on the first trading day of June. Brent crude oil prices are back above the $70 barrel mark, the highest since March. The crude oil market may face supply shortage. Since May, the international oil price has fluctuated higher, with Brent crude oil futures rising by more than 4% to more than $69 per barrel, and U.S. light crude oil futures rising by more than 5% to around $67 per barrel. In June, international oil prices continued to rise. As of the close of trading on June 1, the price of light crude oil futures for July delivery on the NYMEX...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/G7E8AAiQ2hgCV3Hco8u4Mw\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"shzqb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Resource Stocks Hi! International Oil Price Returns to $70, Global Market Supply Shortage?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nResource Stocks Hi! International Oil Price Returns to $70, Global Market Supply Shortage?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">上海证券报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-02 08:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Oil-producing countries expect the market to face supply shortages, coupled with the increase in fuel demand brought by the summer driving season in the United States, and the international oil price \"took off\" on the first trading day of June. Brent crude oil prices are back above the $70 barrel mark, the highest since March. The crude oil market may face supply shortage. Since May, the international oil price has fluctuated higher, with Brent crude oil futures rising by more than 4% to more than $69 per barrel, and U.S. light crude oil futures rising by more than 5% to around $67 per barrel. In June, international oil prices continued to rise. As of the close of trading on June 1, the price of light crude oil futures for July delivery on the NYMEX...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/G7E8AAiQ2hgCV3Hco8u4Mw\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/G7E8AAiQ2hgCV3Hco8u4Mw\">上海证券报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef375710aa7a4298de56c8827d8139df","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/G7E8AAiQ2hgCV3Hco8u4Mw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147734278","content_text":"产油国预计市场或面临供应短缺问题，加上美国夏季驾驶季带来的燃料需求增加，国际油价在6月首个交易日“起飞”。\n布伦特原油价格重新回到每桶70美元关口上方，为3月以来最高。\n\n原油市场或面临供应短缺\n5月以来，国际油价震荡走高，布伦特原油期价大涨逾4%至每桶69美元以上，美国轻质原油期货涨逾5%至每桶67美元附近。进入6月，国际油价延续涨势。\n截至6月1日收盘，纽约商品交易所7月交货的轻质原油期货价格收于每桶67.72美元，涨幅为2.11%；8月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格收于每桶70.25美元，涨幅为2.23%。\n在大幅削减原油产量近一年后，石油输出国组织（欧佩克）和非欧佩克产油国方面预期全球原油市场或面临供应短缺问题。\n据外媒披露，“欧佩克+”周二同意维持逐步放松石油供应限制的步伐不变。该联盟在4月决定，5至7月增加供应210万桶/日，因为尽管疫情在暴发，但全球需求仍将上升。\n“欧佩克+”联席技术委员会近期称，随着原油需求端逐步复苏，原油供应逐步趋紧。如果“欧佩克+”7月后依然维持当前产量不变，2021年全球原油库存将每日平均下降140万桶，并从9月开始加速下降，9月到12月，全球原油库存将至少每日下降200万桶。\n市场观察人士认为，“欧佩克+”需要在今年下半年加大原油供应力度。能源咨询公司雷斯塔原油市场分析师路易丝·迪克森称，当前原油市场供需面与去年4月份已经完全不同，原油生产商需要满足不断上升的需求，如果油价上涨过快可能会影响全球经济复苏。\n对需求的乐观预期同样成为油价上涨的主要支撑因素。尽管部分地区疫情反扑，但美国、中国和欧洲部分地区正推动需求强劲复苏。欧佩克在5月发布的月度原油市场报告中称，乐观来看，全球原油需求同比增长595万桶/日，全年原油需求量为9650万桶/日。\n随着疫苗接种展开及各国实施积极支持政策，全球经济前景正在改善。经济合作与发展组织（OECD）本周上调了今年全球经济增速至5.8%，并预期明年全球经济将增长4.4%，这一乐观预期提振了原油需求前景。\n而油价追踪公司GasBuddy的数据显示，上周日美国汽油需求比之前四个周日的平均水平跃升了9.6%，为2019年夏季以来最高的周日需求。\n欧美市场能源股嗨了\n受油价上涨提振，周一欧美股市能源及资源相关板块个股齐步上涨。\n在美股市场，标普500的11大板块中，能源股以近4%的涨幅遥遥领先。\n而纽约股市三大股指当日涨跌不一，其中道指涨0.13%，标普500指数跌0.05%，纳斯达克指数跌0.09%。\n能源类个股表现突出，马拉松石油大涨超过13%，卡隆石油飙升12%，埃克森美孚上涨超过3%，雪佛龙涨超2%。\n而龙头科技股多数下跌，微软跌逾0.9%，奈飞跌逾0.7%，苹果下滑近0.3%，亚马逊小幅下跌逾0.1%。\n在欧洲市场，泛欧STOXX 600指数当日上涨近0.8%，再创新高。石油巨头BP、荷兰皇家壳牌及道达尔均上涨超2%。\n业内预计年底或升至80美元\n在全球经济加速复苏及原油需求不断上升的预期下，业内对国际油价一致维持乐观预期，国际油价年底或升至每桶80美元附近。\n金联创原油高级分析师奚佳蕊认为，6月份国际油价仍有一定上行空间，但走势或颇为震荡，预计美国轻质原油主流运行区间为每桶64至70美元，布伦特原油主流运行区间为每桶65至72美元。\n花旗分析师认为，随着疫情逐渐缓解，旅游休闲需求进一步释放，全球原油需求或在今年夏季达到阶段性高点，市场供需可能在接下来几个月中进一步收紧。鉴于此，花旗认为今年原油需求整体强劲，布伦特原油期价年底前可能触及每桶80美元。\n根据路透对45位市场参与者所做的调查，布伦特油价今年每桶均价为64.79美元，为2021年以来预估被连续第六次向上修正，4月时的预估为64.17美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BZmain":0.9,"CLmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3935,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":113198125,"gmtCreate":1622596819367,"gmtModify":1704186996002,"author":{"id":"3575540187585339","authorId":"3575540187585339","name":"LittleGuiLin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8ea4a9904bb4298320579358e26ac9b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575540187585339","idStr":"3575540187585339"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Didn’t US just sold several billion dollars of confiscated Iranian oil?","listText":"Didn’t US just sold several billion dollars of confiscated Iranian oil?","text":"Didn’t US just sold several billion dollars of confiscated Iranian oil?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/113198125","repostId":"1149085708","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149085708","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1622595059,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1149085708?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-02 08:50","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"How Does Crude Oil Prices Continue to Rise, Affect Inflation and Global Manufacturers?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149085708","media":"Wind万得","summary":"原油价格周二触及每桶70美元上方，此前欧佩克及其盟友（OPEC+）预测需求将上升并提高产量。全球经济持续复苏，并推高了一系列大宗商品的价格。\n具体来看，周二美油7月合约收涨2.52%，报67.99美元","content":"<p>Crude oil prices hit above $70 a barrel on Tuesday after OPEC and its allies (OPEC +) forecast higher demand and higher production. The global economy has continued to recover and has pushed up prices for a range of commodities.</p><p>Specifically, on Tuesday, the July contract of U.S. oil closed up 2.52% at $67.99/barrel, a new high since October 2018; The August contract of Brent oil closed up 1.85% at $70.6/barrel.</p><p><b>OPEC gradually loosens the scale of production cuts</b></p><p>Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries members and their allies (OPEC +) agreed on Tuesday to boost oil production by about 450,000 barrels a day starting next month. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia agreed to continue easing the unilateral production cuts of 1 million barrels a day imposed earlier this year.</p><p>In April, OPEC agreed to increase output by more than 2 million barrels per day by the end of July, bringing the cumulative output over the past year to about 4 million barrels per day. It comes after the group agreed to cut 9.7 million barrels per day of crude oil in early 2020, when the coronavirus first began shutting down economies, weakening global crude demand and sending oil prices down.</p><p>Now, with infections broadly under control in much of Asia and China, the world's largest oil consumer, and vaccinations steadily advancing in the US and Europe, OPEC and some non-OPEC producers, led by Russia, are betting on a rebound in market demand.</p><p>A technical committee of the OPEC + organization forecast Monday that oil demand will increase by 6 million barrels per day in the second half of the year, according to OPEC representatives. As a result, they predict, global oil inventories will fall below the five-year average for the 2015-2019 period by the end of July, marking the end of the pandemic situation where supply exceeds consumption.</p><p>However, analysts suggested that the continued recovery of crude oil demand will depend on the development of the epidemic. Energy Aspects analyst Amrita Sen said new pandemic restrictions are being implemented in Southeast Asia, which could delay the full recovery of crude oil demand until mid-2022. \"Demand is booming in China, but as we know, India is struggling. Many other Asian countries are returning to some form of lockdown.\"</p><p><b>Inflation Expectations Heat Up</b></p><p>The recent oil price milestone came at the same time as commodities such as tin, copper and lumber suffered similar shocks. The prices of these commodities have also soared amid the recovery of demand.</p><p>\"It's a good old-fashioned reflationary trade,\" Tom Price, head of commodity strategy at investment bank Liberum, described expectations of a surge in activity and more assets. Price said it had been a long time since the economic recovery following the 2009 financial crisis that so many kinds of commodities had risen at the same time.</p><p>Demand for crude oil and other commodities reflects significant fluctuations in global economic activity during the pandemic. Crude oil demand plummeted in the second quarter of last year as a large chunk of the global economy was in suspended animation, but it has rebounded in recent months as many wealthy economies thaw.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the world has gradually promoted vaccination and relaxed restrictive policies, and the demand for energy and raw materials in global factories has gradually picked up. On the other hand, the depreciation of the US dollar has also made US dollar-denominated commodities more attractive, with the US Dollar Index falling below 90 in June.</p><p>Demand is set to rise further this year as the global economy is expected to expand at its fastest pace in decades. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Monday it expects global output to rise 5.8 percent, the strongest growth since 1973.</p><p>High oil prices have led to increased global inflation. Eurozone data released on Tuesday showed that the consumer price index rose 2% in May from a year earlier, the fastest increase since late 2018. But the main reason for the increase was higher energy prices, which rose 13.1% from the same period a year earlier.</p><p>In April, the consumer price index rose 0.6% from the previous month and 3.6% from a year earlier, according to an inflation gauge released by the Commerce Department. Core prices, excluding energy and food, rose 0.7% sequentially and 3.1% year over year.</p><p><b>Manufacturers face tough outlook</b></p><p>On the other hand, rising prices are already making life harder for manufacturers. General Motors and Danish Wind turbine maker Vestas Wind Systems A/S, among all sorts of businesses, have complained about rising steel prices.</p><p>Andy Palmer, a UK automotive executive and engineer, said: \"This is a big problem for automakers, I've seen periods of volatile commodity prices, but it's rare for almost all raw material prices to rise so fast.\"</p><p>The most affected are smaller manufacturers, whose margins have been declining in recent months due to high raw material prices. In response to rising cost pressures, a growing number of factories have recently increased the price of their products. Some others have temporarily halted operations and rejected new orders.</p><p>Moreover, while the global crude oil supplier can ramp up supply relatively quickly (opec can take advantage of its huge untapped capacity), it is much harder for miners and farmers to suddenly ramp up production of coal, copper or cotton. Rising prices, for example, are prompting mining companies to look at their future plans.</p><p>Commodities trading giant Glencore PLC said in February it was considering restarting production at the world's largest cobalt mine in the Congo. In August 2019, Glencore chose to close its Mutanda copper mine, which also produces large volumes of copper, as prices for both metals plummeted. Supply bottlenecks caused by the pandemic have lingered in recent months, and buoyant demand from the recovery in Asian economies has driven prices soaring. Copper prices surged to an all-time high last month, and cobalt prices are up more than 50% this year.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Does Crude Oil Prices Continue to Rise, Affect Inflation and Global Manufacturers?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Does Crude Oil Prices Continue to Rise, Affect Inflation and Global Manufacturers?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-02 08:50</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Crude oil prices hit above $70 a barrel on Tuesday after OPEC and its allies (OPEC +) forecast higher demand and higher production. The global economy has continued to recover and has pushed up prices for a range of commodities.</p><p>Specifically, on Tuesday, the July contract of U.S. oil closed up 2.52% at $67.99/barrel, a new high since October 2018; The August contract of Brent oil closed up 1.85% at $70.6/barrel.</p><p><b>OPEC gradually loosens the scale of production cuts</b></p><p>Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries members and their allies (OPEC +) agreed on Tuesday to boost oil production by about 450,000 barrels a day starting next month. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia agreed to continue easing the unilateral production cuts of 1 million barrels a day imposed earlier this year.</p><p>In April, OPEC agreed to increase output by more than 2 million barrels per day by the end of July, bringing the cumulative output over the past year to about 4 million barrels per day. It comes after the group agreed to cut 9.7 million barrels per day of crude oil in early 2020, when the coronavirus first began shutting down economies, weakening global crude demand and sending oil prices down.</p><p>Now, with infections broadly under control in much of Asia and China, the world's largest oil consumer, and vaccinations steadily advancing in the US and Europe, OPEC and some non-OPEC producers, led by Russia, are betting on a rebound in market demand.</p><p>A technical committee of the OPEC + organization forecast Monday that oil demand will increase by 6 million barrels per day in the second half of the year, according to OPEC representatives. As a result, they predict, global oil inventories will fall below the five-year average for the 2015-2019 period by the end of July, marking the end of the pandemic situation where supply exceeds consumption.</p><p>However, analysts suggested that the continued recovery of crude oil demand will depend on the development of the epidemic. Energy Aspects analyst Amrita Sen said new pandemic restrictions are being implemented in Southeast Asia, which could delay the full recovery of crude oil demand until mid-2022. \"Demand is booming in China, but as we know, India is struggling. Many other Asian countries are returning to some form of lockdown.\"</p><p><b>Inflation Expectations Heat Up</b></p><p>The recent oil price milestone came at the same time as commodities such as tin, copper and lumber suffered similar shocks. The prices of these commodities have also soared amid the recovery of demand.</p><p>\"It's a good old-fashioned reflationary trade,\" Tom Price, head of commodity strategy at investment bank Liberum, described expectations of a surge in activity and more assets. Price said it had been a long time since the economic recovery following the 2009 financial crisis that so many kinds of commodities had risen at the same time.</p><p>Demand for crude oil and other commodities reflects significant fluctuations in global economic activity during the pandemic. Crude oil demand plummeted in the second quarter of last year as a large chunk of the global economy was in suspended animation, but it has rebounded in recent months as many wealthy economies thaw.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the world has gradually promoted vaccination and relaxed restrictive policies, and the demand for energy and raw materials in global factories has gradually picked up. On the other hand, the depreciation of the US dollar has also made US dollar-denominated commodities more attractive, with the US Dollar Index falling below 90 in June.</p><p>Demand is set to rise further this year as the global economy is expected to expand at its fastest pace in decades. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Monday it expects global output to rise 5.8 percent, the strongest growth since 1973.</p><p>High oil prices have led to increased global inflation. Eurozone data released on Tuesday showed that the consumer price index rose 2% in May from a year earlier, the fastest increase since late 2018. But the main reason for the increase was higher energy prices, which rose 13.1% from the same period a year earlier.</p><p>In April, the consumer price index rose 0.6% from the previous month and 3.6% from a year earlier, according to an inflation gauge released by the Commerce Department. Core prices, excluding energy and food, rose 0.7% sequentially and 3.1% year over year.</p><p><b>Manufacturers face tough outlook</b></p><p>On the other hand, rising prices are already making life harder for manufacturers. General Motors and Danish Wind turbine maker Vestas Wind Systems A/S, among all sorts of businesses, have complained about rising steel prices.</p><p>Andy Palmer, a UK automotive executive and engineer, said: \"This is a big problem for automakers, I've seen periods of volatile commodity prices, but it's rare for almost all raw material prices to rise so fast.\"</p><p>The most affected are smaller manufacturers, whose margins have been declining in recent months due to high raw material prices. In response to rising cost pressures, a growing number of factories have recently increased the price of their products. Some others have temporarily halted operations and rejected new orders.</p><p>Moreover, while the global crude oil supplier can ramp up supply relatively quickly (opec can take advantage of its huge untapped capacity), it is much harder for miners and farmers to suddenly ramp up production of coal, copper or cotton. Rising prices, for example, are prompting mining companies to look at their future plans.</p><p>Commodities trading giant Glencore PLC said in February it was considering restarting production at the world's largest cobalt mine in the Congo. In August 2019, Glencore chose to close its Mutanda copper mine, which also produces large volumes of copper, as prices for both metals plummeted. Supply bottlenecks caused by the pandemic have lingered in recent months, and buoyant demand from the recovery in Asian economies has driven prices soaring. Copper prices surged to an all-time high last month, and cobalt prices are up more than 50% this year.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7b869860fd524e1c4d1e42b2d81d1a2","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149085708","content_text":"原油价格周二触及每桶70美元上方，此前欧佩克及其盟友（OPEC+）预测需求将上升并提高产量。全球经济持续复苏，并推高了一系列大宗商品的价格。\n具体来看，周二美油7月合约收涨2.52%，报67.99美元/桶，创2018年10月以来新高；布油8月合约收涨1.85%，报70.6美元/桶。\n欧佩克逐步放松减产规模\n石油输出国组织成员国及其盟友（OPEC+）周二同意，从下个月开始将石油日产量提高约45万桶。与此同时，沙特同意继续放松今年早些时候实施的每日100万桶的单方减产措施。\n今年4月，欧佩克同意在7月底之前将日产量增加200多万桶，使过去一年的日产量累计增加到约400万桶。在此之前，该组织同意在2020年初每天削减970万桶原油，当时冠状病毒首次开始导致经济体关闭，削弱了全球原油需求，并导致油价下跌。\n如今，随着亚洲大部分地区和中国(全球最大的石油消费国)感染率普遍得到控制，以及美国和欧洲的疫苗接种稳步推进，欧佩克和以俄罗斯为首的一些非欧佩克产油国正押注市场需求反弹。\n据欧佩克代表透露，欧佩克+组织的一个技术委员会周一预测，下半年的石油需求将增加600万桶/天。他们预测，其结果是，到7月底，全球石油库存将降至2015-2019年期间的五年平均水平以下，标志着疫情期间供大于用的局面结束。\n不过，分析师提示称，原油需求的持续复苏情况将取决于疫情发展。Energy Aspects 分析师 Amrita Sen 表示，东南亚正在实施新的疫情限制措施，这可能会将原油需求的全面恢复推迟到2022年年中。“中国的需求正在蓬勃发展，但正如我们所知，印度正在苦苦挣扎。许多其他亚洲国家正在恢复某种形式的封锁。”\n通胀预期升温\n在最近的油价里程碑事件发生的同时，锡、铜、木材等大宗商品也遭遇了类似的冲击。在需求恢复的情况下，这些商品价格也都在飙升。\n投资银行Liberum大宗商品策略主管汤姆•普莱斯(Tom Price) 在描述经济活动激增、资产增加的预期时表示：“这是一种不错的老式再通胀交易。”普莱斯说，自2009年金融危机之后的经济复苏以来，这么多种类的大宗商品已经有很长时间没有同时上涨了。\n对原油和其他大宗商品的需求反映了疫情期间全球经济活动的巨大波动。去年第二季度，由于全球经济的很大一部分处于假死状态，原油需求急剧下降，但近几个月来，随着许多富裕经济体解冻，原油需求已经反弹。\n今年以来，全球陆续推广疫苗接种并放松限制政策，全球工厂对能源和原材料的需求逐渐回升。另一方面，美元贬值也使以美元计价的大宗商品更具吸引力，美元指数6月已下行至90下方。\n随着全球经济预计将出现几十年来最快速的扩张，今年的需求将进一步上升。经济合作与发展组织(Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development)周一说，预计全球产出将增长5.8%，这将是1973年以来最强劲的增长。\n高油价导致全球通货膨胀加剧。欧元区周二发布的数据显示，5月份消费者价格指数比去年同期上涨了2%，这是自2018年底以来的最快涨幅。但上涨的主要原因是能源价格上涨，能源价格较上年同期上涨13.1%。\n美国商务部(Commerce Department)公布的通货膨胀指数显示，4月份消费者价格指数较上月上涨0.6%，较上年同期上涨3.6%。不包括能源和食品的核心价格环比上涨0.7%，同比上涨3.1%。\n制造商面临艰难前景\n另一方面，不断上涨的价格已经让制造商的日子更难过了。通用汽车公司(General Motors)和丹麦风力涡轮机制造商维斯塔斯风力系统公司(Vestas Wind Systems A/S)等各类企业都抱怨钢材价格不断上涨。\n英国汽车业高管和工程师安迪·帕尔默(Andy Palmer)表示： “这对汽车制造商来说是个大问题，我曾见过大宗商品价格波动的时期，但几乎所有原材料价格都上涨得如此之快，实属罕见。”\n受影响最大的是规模较小的制造商，由于原材料价格高企，它们最近几个月的利润率一直在下降。为了应对不断上升的成本压力，越来越多的工厂最近提高了产品价格。其他一些公司已暂时停止运营，并拒绝了新订单。\n此外，尽管全球原油供应龙头可以相对迅速地提高供给(opec可以利用其巨大的未开发产能)，但矿工和农民要突然增加煤炭、铜或棉花的产量要困难得多。例如，价格上涨正促使矿业公司审视自己的未来计划。\n大宗商品交易巨头嘉能可(Glencore PLC)今年2月表示，正考虑重启位于刚果的全球最大钴矿的生产。2019年8月，嘉能可选择关闭同样生产大量铜的穆坦达铜矿，因为这两种金属的价格都出现了暴跌。近几个月来，疫情造成的供应瓶颈挥之不去，亚洲经济体复苏带来的需求旺盛，推动价格飙升。铜价上月飙升至历史最高水平，今年钴价上涨了50%以上。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4086,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":113193806,"gmtCreate":1622596756105,"gmtModify":1704186993179,"author":{"id":"3575540187585339","authorId":"3575540187585339","name":"LittleGuiLin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8ea4a9904bb4298320579358e26ac9b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575540187585339","idStr":"3575540187585339"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yet, Taiwan still suffers electricity frequent blackout and water shortages. Both are very troubling for TSMC production.","listText":"Yet, Taiwan still suffers electricity frequent blackout and water shortages. Both are very troubling for TSMC production.","text":"Yet, Taiwan still suffers electricity frequent blackout and water shortages. Both are very troubling for TSMC production.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/113193806","repostId":"1114708774","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":119069463,"gmtCreate":1622509050252,"gmtModify":1704185268755,"author":{"id":"3575540187585339","authorId":"3575540187585339","name":"LittleGuiLin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8ea4a9904bb4298320579358e26ac9b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575540187585339","idStr":"3575540187585339"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OPRA\">$Opera(OPRA)$</a>still waiting for comeback","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OPRA\">$Opera(OPRA)$</a>still waiting for comeback","text":"$Opera(OPRA)$still waiting for comeback","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38fb32fd09812a7fd15334edc5ba6fff","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/119069463","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4870,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":119087242,"gmtCreate":1622508898386,"gmtModify":1704185265624,"author":{"id":"3575540187585339","authorId":"3575540187585339","name":"LittleGuiLin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8ea4a9904bb4298320579358e26ac9b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575540187585339","idStr":"3575540187585339"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Best strategy: ask people for 3rd child.","listText":"Best strategy: ask people for 3rd child.","text":"Best strategy: ask people for 3rd child.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/119087242","repostId":"1186284203","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186284203","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"“一号在手，投资无忧！”此微信公众号为中信证券研究报告权威发布平台，力求信息及时、准确，是您投资好帮手！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"中信证券研究","id":"1010577552","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa20565b6019f08c46a1722e89f3141b"},"pubTimestamp":1622508290,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1186284203?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-01 08:44","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"A-share investment strategy in the second half of the year: downplaying cyclical thinking and focusing on growth and consumption","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186284203","media":"中信证券研究","summary":"“帆起”代表全球经济的共振复苏，以及投资者风险偏好提升，“逐浪高”代表市场上行动能将逐渐增强，A股下半年将进入慢涨“三部曲”中的共振上行期，且四季度空间更大。全球经济共振复苏，通胀扰动高点已过，国内政","content":"<p>\"Sail Up\" represents the resonant recovery of the global economy and the improvement of investors' risk appetite, while \"Chasing Waves High\" represents that the action energy in the market will gradually increase. In the second half of the year, A shares will enter the resonant upward period in the slow-rising \"trilogy\", and there will be more room in the fourth quarter. The global economic resonance has recovered, the high point of inflation disturbance has passed, domestic policies have been intensively implemented, macro liquidity is stable, and market liquidity is abundant. In terms of allocation, it is recommended to dilute cyclical thinking, focus on growth in the third quarter and increase consumption in the fourth quarter. First of all, the vaccination rate has steadily increased, the global economy will move from dislocation recovery to resonance recovery, the contradiction between commodity supply and demand has eased, and the high point of inflation expectation disturbance has passed. Secondly, while domestic policies \"do not make sharp turns\", high-quality development policies such as innovation, green and sharing have become important attractions. Third, in the second half of the year, the macro liquidity is loose outside and stable inside. The Federal Reserve is not expected to lower the scale of bond purchases this year, the domestic monetary policy remains stable and neutral, and the credit cycle is slowly declining. It is judged that the policy interest rate will not be adjusted; The market liquidity is still abundant, the inter-bank interest rate is stable, and the relative allocation attraction of A shares is still strong. It is estimated that the net inflow of A shares will reach 220 billion yuan in the second half of the year, of which the inflow of foreign capital may continue to exceed expectations under the expectation of RMB appreciation. Finally, the profits of A shares in the second half of the year are resilient, but the structural differentiation is obvious, the cycle is weakened, and the growth is dominant. In terms of allocation, it is recommended to dilute cyclical thinking, pay attention to long-term space and valuation flexibility, focus on high-growth varieties in the third quarter, and increase the allocation of large consumption sectors in the fourth quarter.<b>A shares have entered the upward period of resonance, and there is more room in the fourth quarter.</b></p><p>In our annual investment strategy \"A-share Market 2021 Investment Strategy: Slow Rise\" Trilogy \"released on November 17, 2020, we proposed that A-shares will go through three stages in 2021: rotation slow rise period, calm period and resonance upward period, and the market trend is consistent with our judgment: in the rotation slow rise period from November 2020 to the first quarter of this year, procyclical varieties led the rise; In the second quarter, the market entered a quiet period after inflation anxiety and liquidity expectations were revised downward. It is expected that in the second half of the year, A shares will enter a resonance upward period under the global resonance recovery and the easing of inflation disturbance, and there will be more room in the fourth quarter. This report follows and refines the analysis framework of the annual strategy report, integrates the four major strategic systems of macro, industry, policy and theme, and adopts quantitative and behavioral finance methods to systematically look forward to the investment opportunities of A shares in the second half of 2021.</p><p><b>The global economy has resonated and recovered, and the high of inflation expectations has passed.</b></p><p>Virus variants and the epidemic situation in India do not change the general trend of global vaccination to control the epidemic: it is expected that the vaccination ratio in the United States and Britain will exceed 60% in June, and European countries such as Germany and France will also exceed this level in September-October; Vaccination in emerging markets except China will accelerate in the fourth quarter of this year.</p><p>On the one hand, the misalignment of overseas economic recovery has been gradually corrected, and the second half of the year will move towards a resonant recovery: developed economies are restricted by their willingness to vaccinate, the vaccination rate has declined, and demand recovery and policy withdrawal are slow; However, the recovery momentum of emerging economies has been relatively enhanced, and the supply-side constraints of commodities have eased. On the other hand, in the second half of the year, the domestic manufacturing investment picked up, the demand for the service industry recovered, and the continued high prosperity of exports supported the steady improvement of the economy. It is expected that the GDP in the second to fourth quarters of this year will increase by 5.7~5.9% on an annualized basis compared with 2019, with a slight improvement quarter by quarter.</p><p>In terms of inflation, it is expected that most of the commodity prices listed in RMB have reached the high point of the year in May, and the domestic PPI will drop from the high point of about 7% in May to between 3% and 4% at the end of the year; The US dollar-priced commodity price is also expected to peak and fall in the third quarter. The high point of inflation market disturbance has passed, and the monetary policy constraints at home and abroad will gradually ease.</p><p><b>Intensive policies have been implemented, and high-quality development has become an important attraction.</b></p><p>1) The pressure of upstream price increase has eased. It is expected that the Politburo meeting in July will set the tone of \"no sharp turn\" of macro policy unchanged. Finance will be guided by stable leverage, monetary policy will be stable and neutral, and fiscal policy will focus on implementation.</p><p>2) High-quality development policies such as innovation, green and sharing are important highlights in the second half of the year: in terms of innovation, it is expected that the national medium-and long-term science and technology planning and anti-monopoly policies are expected to be introduced one after another, which is conducive to the long-term healthy development of the Internet platform; In terms of green, the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality scheme is expected to be released in June, and the new energy industry will benefit most clearly; In terms of sharing, common prosperity may be a new keyword after a well-off society in an all-round way.</p><p>3) In terms of the reform of state-owned enterprises, this year, policies such as optimizing the layout of enterprises and strengthening the medium-and long-term incentive mechanism may be introduced one after another to improve the operating efficiency of state-owned enterprises.</p><p>4) Deepening the implementation of capital market reform, it is expected that ESG, green finance and other policies are expected to be introduced in the second half of this year, and the comprehensive registration system will be implemented in the first quarter of next year.</p><p><b>Macro liquidity is loose externally and stable internally, and market liquidity is still abundant.</b></p><p>On the one hand, inflation constraints have eased, and the Federal Reserve, which pays more attention to employment, will only discuss reducing the scale of bond purchases at the end of the third quarter at the earliest. The Bank of Europe and Japan will act later. It is estimated that the expansion scale of the three central banks in the four quarters of 2021Q3~2022Q2 will be USD 8700/6400/6400/440 billion respectively. It is expected that the the US Dollar Index will be weak in the second and third quarters, with a bottom range of 88~89. At the end of the third quarter, it is expected that it will turn from weak to strong under the expectation of the Fed's marginal tightening, and may rise to above 92 in the fourth quarter. It is expected that RMB will rise first and then fall against the US dollar, running in the range of 6.2~6.6 this year, and reaching a high of 6.2 in the third quarter.</p><p>On the other hand, in the second half of the year, the domestic monetary policy remained stable and neutral, the credit cycle slowly declined, and it is expected that the policy interest rate will not be adjusted. In the inter-bank market, it is expected that DR007 will continue to fluctuate around the central 2.2% in the third quarter, and 2.2% will become the lower limit of DR007 fluctuation after the marginal tightening in the fourth quarter; At the same time, it is expected that the yield to maturity of 10-year treasury bonds will fluctuate widely in the range of 3.0% ~3.4% in the second half of the year. In terms of market liquidity, under the background of preventing real estate bubbles and the approaching deadline of the transition period of new asset management regulations, residents' relative motivation to increase equity assets is still strong.</p><p><b>Profit growth structure differentiated, cycle weakened growth dominated</b>。</p><p>Under the environment of stable macro-economic recovery, there are three most important factors affecting the profit growth rate of A shares in the second half of the year: the correction after the excessive rise of commodity prices, the continuous growth of capital expenditure for growth manufacturing, and the increase of disposable income of residents and the growth rate of non-housing credit, which drives the recovery of optional consumption.</p><p>1) Overall, the profit growth rate of CSI 800 non-financial segment is expected to reach 32% in 2021.</p><p>2) Structurally, the growth rates of industry, consumption, TMT and pharmaceuticals are expected to be 37%, 28%, 14% and 31% respectively. The consumption sector will contribute the most to the growth rate of non-financial net profit in the second half of the year.</p><p>3) In terms of rhythm, in the second quarter of 2021, the net profit scale of the industrial sector in a single quarter reached a high point; In the third quarter, the relative profit trend of TMT and pharmaceutical growth sectors will be obviously dominant, and the procyclical logic of the market will be diluted; From the fourth quarter to the first half of next year, optional consumer goods will lead the big consumption sector, ushering in a sustained upward trend of relative prosperity.</p><p><b>In the second half of the year, the net inflow of A-share funds is expected to be 220 billion yuan, and foreign capital may continue to exceed expectations.</b></p><p>Based on the above research and judgment, we calculate the capital flow of A shares based on investor behavior, and the net capital flow forecast of various investors in the second half of the year is as follows:</p><p>1) In terms of foreign capital, the RMB exchange rate is strong first and then weak, and the allocation value of A shares in emerging markets is still obvious. It is estimated that the net inflow of northbound funds will exceed 170 billion yuan;</p><p>2) The position of private equity funds is already on the high side. After the surge in the first quarter, the estimated net inflow is 140 billion yuan;</p><p>3) Insurance capital and wealth management subsidiaries reduced their holdings slightly in the first quarter, and the rhythm of small inflow will be resumed in the follow-up. It is estimated that the net inflow will be 150 billion yuan in the second half of the year;</p><p>4) Under the stabilization of the market, Public Offering of Fund has recovered, and the stock redemption is stable, with an estimated net inflow of 110 billion yuan;</p><p>5) Based on the large scale of lifting the ban, industrial capital will continue to be reduced net, but many first-and-a-half funds will also flow into the bottom, and it is estimated that 120 billion yuan will flow out in the second half of the year;</p><p>6) This year's IPO issuance scale is close to last year's, and the fund-raising scale in the second half of the year is too large, estimated to be 230 billion yuan. To sum up, it is estimated that the net inflow of A-share funds will be about 220 billion yuan in the second half of 2021, and the net inflow will be 60 billion yuan and 160 billion yuan in the third and fourth quarters.</p><p><b>It resonated upward in the second half of the year, and there was more room in the fourth quarter.</b></p><p>Combined with the above forecasts, we scored the long and short impacts of overseas factors, fundamentals, policies and liquidity on the general trend of A shares in each quarter, and weighted the comprehensive score. Among them, the scores in the third and fourth quarters of 2021 were 2.8 and 5.4; The scores for the first and second quarters of 2022 were 1.9 and 1.6. A-shares are still in the medium-and long-term slow-rising channel, inflation expectations peak and fall, fundamental disturbances ease, and liquidity expectations are repaired. In the third quarter of this year, A-shares are expected to rise slowly in the shock; The global economy has resonated and recovered, domestic policies have accelerated, and market liquidity is still loose. In the fourth quarter of this year, A shares have more upside.</p><p><b>Configuration suggestion: dilute cyclical thinking and focus on growth and consumption.</b></p><p><b>1) Strengthen growth allocation in the third quarter.</b>In the third quarter, the haze of inflation gradually dispersed, liquidity is expected to be repaired, and the relative profit trend of the growth sector is obviously dominant. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to more growth sectors that bring market value space and valuation flexibility from industrial space. Among them, growth manufacturing focuses on new energy, independent and controllable technology, national defense security and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Manufacturing; Growth consumption focuses on cosmetics, medical beauty, duty-free, sportswear, new tobacco, etc. In terms of theme, it is recommended to benefit from the expected energy security theme of the implementation outline of each line of \"carbon neutrality\", and the defense machine bomb sector, which is expected to exceed expectations in the second quarterly report and is catalyzed by the unstable situation overseas.</p><p><b>2) Strategic increase in consumption in the fourth quarter.</b>In the fourth quarter, in addition to continuing to adhere to the growth allocation, the global economy resonated and recovered, and the growth rate of domestic residents' disposable income and non-housing credit drove the recovery of optional consumption, which will become a new bright spot of economic growth, and the prosperity trend is expected to last until the first half of next year. Three main lines are recommended for specific configuration: first, e-commerce; Second, branded clothing, beauty and daily chemicals with a high proportion of online sales; Third, traditional optional durable goods, such as home appliances, automobiles, consumer electronics, etc. In terms of topics, it is recommended to pay attention to Shanghai Free Trade Port and digital RMB.</p><p><b>Risk Factors:</b></p><p>The global epidemic has repeated, and vaccination has fallen short of expectations; Friction between China and the United States in the field of science and technology trade has intensified; The progress of domestic economic recovery is less than expected; Domestic and foreign macro liquidity tightened ahead of schedule beyond expectations.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A-share investment strategy in the second half of the year: downplaying cyclical thinking and focusing on growth and consumption</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA-share investment strategy in the second half of the year: downplaying cyclical thinking and focusing on growth and consumption\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1010577552\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa20565b6019f08c46a1722e89f3141b);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">中信证券研究 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-01 08:44</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>\"Sail Up\" represents the resonant recovery of the global economy and the improvement of investors' risk appetite, while \"Chasing Waves High\" represents that the action energy in the market will gradually increase. In the second half of the year, A shares will enter the resonant upward period in the slow-rising \"trilogy\", and there will be more room in the fourth quarter. The global economic resonance has recovered, the high point of inflation disturbance has passed, domestic policies have been intensively implemented, macro liquidity is stable, and market liquidity is abundant. In terms of allocation, it is recommended to dilute cyclical thinking, focus on growth in the third quarter and increase consumption in the fourth quarter. First of all, the vaccination rate has steadily increased, the global economy will move from dislocation recovery to resonance recovery, the contradiction between commodity supply and demand has eased, and the high point of inflation expectation disturbance has passed. Secondly, while domestic policies \"do not make sharp turns\", high-quality development policies such as innovation, green and sharing have become important attractions. Third, in the second half of the year, the macro liquidity is loose outside and stable inside. The Federal Reserve is not expected to lower the scale of bond purchases this year, the domestic monetary policy remains stable and neutral, and the credit cycle is slowly declining. It is judged that the policy interest rate will not be adjusted; The market liquidity is still abundant, the inter-bank interest rate is stable, and the relative allocation attraction of A shares is still strong. It is estimated that the net inflow of A shares will reach 220 billion yuan in the second half of the year, of which the inflow of foreign capital may continue to exceed expectations under the expectation of RMB appreciation. Finally, the profits of A shares in the second half of the year are resilient, but the structural differentiation is obvious, the cycle is weakened, and the growth is dominant. In terms of allocation, it is recommended to dilute cyclical thinking, pay attention to long-term space and valuation flexibility, focus on high-growth varieties in the third quarter, and increase the allocation of large consumption sectors in the fourth quarter.<b>A shares have entered the upward period of resonance, and there is more room in the fourth quarter.</b></p><p>In our annual investment strategy \"A-share Market 2021 Investment Strategy: Slow Rise\" Trilogy \"released on November 17, 2020, we proposed that A-shares will go through three stages in 2021: rotation slow rise period, calm period and resonance upward period, and the market trend is consistent with our judgment: in the rotation slow rise period from November 2020 to the first quarter of this year, procyclical varieties led the rise; In the second quarter, the market entered a quiet period after inflation anxiety and liquidity expectations were revised downward. It is expected that in the second half of the year, A shares will enter a resonance upward period under the global resonance recovery and the easing of inflation disturbance, and there will be more room in the fourth quarter. This report follows and refines the analysis framework of the annual strategy report, integrates the four major strategic systems of macro, industry, policy and theme, and adopts quantitative and behavioral finance methods to systematically look forward to the investment opportunities of A shares in the second half of 2021.</p><p><b>The global economy has resonated and recovered, and the high of inflation expectations has passed.</b></p><p>Virus variants and the epidemic situation in India do not change the general trend of global vaccination to control the epidemic: it is expected that the vaccination ratio in the United States and Britain will exceed 60% in June, and European countries such as Germany and France will also exceed this level in September-October; Vaccination in emerging markets except China will accelerate in the fourth quarter of this year.</p><p>On the one hand, the misalignment of overseas economic recovery has been gradually corrected, and the second half of the year will move towards a resonant recovery: developed economies are restricted by their willingness to vaccinate, the vaccination rate has declined, and demand recovery and policy withdrawal are slow; However, the recovery momentum of emerging economies has been relatively enhanced, and the supply-side constraints of commodities have eased. On the other hand, in the second half of the year, the domestic manufacturing investment picked up, the demand for the service industry recovered, and the continued high prosperity of exports supported the steady improvement of the economy. It is expected that the GDP in the second to fourth quarters of this year will increase by 5.7~5.9% on an annualized basis compared with 2019, with a slight improvement quarter by quarter.</p><p>In terms of inflation, it is expected that most of the commodity prices listed in RMB have reached the high point of the year in May, and the domestic PPI will drop from the high point of about 7% in May to between 3% and 4% at the end of the year; The US dollar-priced commodity price is also expected to peak and fall in the third quarter. The high point of inflation market disturbance has passed, and the monetary policy constraints at home and abroad will gradually ease.</p><p><b>Intensive policies have been implemented, and high-quality development has become an important attraction.</b></p><p>1) The pressure of upstream price increase has eased. It is expected that the Politburo meeting in July will set the tone of \"no sharp turn\" of macro policy unchanged. Finance will be guided by stable leverage, monetary policy will be stable and neutral, and fiscal policy will focus on implementation.</p><p>2) High-quality development policies such as innovation, green and sharing are important highlights in the second half of the year: in terms of innovation, it is expected that the national medium-and long-term science and technology planning and anti-monopoly policies are expected to be introduced one after another, which is conducive to the long-term healthy development of the Internet platform; In terms of green, the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality scheme is expected to be released in June, and the new energy industry will benefit most clearly; In terms of sharing, common prosperity may be a new keyword after a well-off society in an all-round way.</p><p>3) In terms of the reform of state-owned enterprises, this year, policies such as optimizing the layout of enterprises and strengthening the medium-and long-term incentive mechanism may be introduced one after another to improve the operating efficiency of state-owned enterprises.</p><p>4) Deepening the implementation of capital market reform, it is expected that ESG, green finance and other policies are expected to be introduced in the second half of this year, and the comprehensive registration system will be implemented in the first quarter of next year.</p><p><b>Macro liquidity is loose externally and stable internally, and market liquidity is still abundant.</b></p><p>On the one hand, inflation constraints have eased, and the Federal Reserve, which pays more attention to employment, will only discuss reducing the scale of bond purchases at the end of the third quarter at the earliest. The Bank of Europe and Japan will act later. It is estimated that the expansion scale of the three central banks in the four quarters of 2021Q3~2022Q2 will be USD 8700/6400/6400/440 billion respectively. It is expected that the the US Dollar Index will be weak in the second and third quarters, with a bottom range of 88~89. At the end of the third quarter, it is expected that it will turn from weak to strong under the expectation of the Fed's marginal tightening, and may rise to above 92 in the fourth quarter. It is expected that RMB will rise first and then fall against the US dollar, running in the range of 6.2~6.6 this year, and reaching a high of 6.2 in the third quarter.</p><p>On the other hand, in the second half of the year, the domestic monetary policy remained stable and neutral, the credit cycle slowly declined, and it is expected that the policy interest rate will not be adjusted. In the inter-bank market, it is expected that DR007 will continue to fluctuate around the central 2.2% in the third quarter, and 2.2% will become the lower limit of DR007 fluctuation after the marginal tightening in the fourth quarter; At the same time, it is expected that the yield to maturity of 10-year treasury bonds will fluctuate widely in the range of 3.0% ~3.4% in the second half of the year. In terms of market liquidity, under the background of preventing real estate bubbles and the approaching deadline of the transition period of new asset management regulations, residents' relative motivation to increase equity assets is still strong.</p><p><b>Profit growth structure differentiated, cycle weakened growth dominated</b>。</p><p>Under the environment of stable macro-economic recovery, there are three most important factors affecting the profit growth rate of A shares in the second half of the year: the correction after the excessive rise of commodity prices, the continuous growth of capital expenditure for growth manufacturing, and the increase of disposable income of residents and the growth rate of non-housing credit, which drives the recovery of optional consumption.</p><p>1) Overall, the profit growth rate of CSI 800 non-financial segment is expected to reach 32% in 2021.</p><p>2) Structurally, the growth rates of industry, consumption, TMT and pharmaceuticals are expected to be 37%, 28%, 14% and 31% respectively. The consumption sector will contribute the most to the growth rate of non-financial net profit in the second half of the year.</p><p>3) In terms of rhythm, in the second quarter of 2021, the net profit scale of the industrial sector in a single quarter reached a high point; In the third quarter, the relative profit trend of TMT and pharmaceutical growth sectors will be obviously dominant, and the procyclical logic of the market will be diluted; From the fourth quarter to the first half of next year, optional consumer goods will lead the big consumption sector, ushering in a sustained upward trend of relative prosperity.</p><p><b>In the second half of the year, the net inflow of A-share funds is expected to be 220 billion yuan, and foreign capital may continue to exceed expectations.</b></p><p>Based on the above research and judgment, we calculate the capital flow of A shares based on investor behavior, and the net capital flow forecast of various investors in the second half of the year is as follows:</p><p>1) In terms of foreign capital, the RMB exchange rate is strong first and then weak, and the allocation value of A shares in emerging markets is still obvious. It is estimated that the net inflow of northbound funds will exceed 170 billion yuan;</p><p>2) The position of private equity funds is already on the high side. After the surge in the first quarter, the estimated net inflow is 140 billion yuan;</p><p>3) Insurance capital and wealth management subsidiaries reduced their holdings slightly in the first quarter, and the rhythm of small inflow will be resumed in the follow-up. It is estimated that the net inflow will be 150 billion yuan in the second half of the year;</p><p>4) Under the stabilization of the market, Public Offering of Fund has recovered, and the stock redemption is stable, with an estimated net inflow of 110 billion yuan;</p><p>5) Based on the large scale of lifting the ban, industrial capital will continue to be reduced net, but many first-and-a-half funds will also flow into the bottom, and it is estimated that 120 billion yuan will flow out in the second half of the year;</p><p>6) This year's IPO issuance scale is close to last year's, and the fund-raising scale in the second half of the year is too large, estimated to be 230 billion yuan. To sum up, it is estimated that the net inflow of A-share funds will be about 220 billion yuan in the second half of 2021, and the net inflow will be 60 billion yuan and 160 billion yuan in the third and fourth quarters.</p><p><b>It resonated upward in the second half of the year, and there was more room in the fourth quarter.</b></p><p>Combined with the above forecasts, we scored the long and short impacts of overseas factors, fundamentals, policies and liquidity on the general trend of A shares in each quarter, and weighted the comprehensive score. Among them, the scores in the third and fourth quarters of 2021 were 2.8 and 5.4; The scores for the first and second quarters of 2022 were 1.9 and 1.6. A-shares are still in the medium-and long-term slow-rising channel, inflation expectations peak and fall, fundamental disturbances ease, and liquidity expectations are repaired. In the third quarter of this year, A-shares are expected to rise slowly in the shock; The global economy has resonated and recovered, domestic policies have accelerated, and market liquidity is still loose. In the fourth quarter of this year, A shares have more upside.</p><p><b>Configuration suggestion: dilute cyclical thinking and focus on growth and consumption.</b></p><p><b>1) Strengthen growth allocation in the third quarter.</b>In the third quarter, the haze of inflation gradually dispersed, liquidity is expected to be repaired, and the relative profit trend of the growth sector is obviously dominant. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to more growth sectors that bring market value space and valuation flexibility from industrial space. Among them, growth manufacturing focuses on new energy, independent and controllable technology, national defense security and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Manufacturing; Growth consumption focuses on cosmetics, medical beauty, duty-free, sportswear, new tobacco, etc. In terms of theme, it is recommended to benefit from the expected energy security theme of the implementation outline of each line of \"carbon neutrality\", and the defense machine bomb sector, which is expected to exceed expectations in the second quarterly report and is catalyzed by the unstable situation overseas.</p><p><b>2) Strategic increase in consumption in the fourth quarter.</b>In the fourth quarter, in addition to continuing to adhere to the growth allocation, the global economy resonated and recovered, and the growth rate of domestic residents' disposable income and non-housing credit drove the recovery of optional consumption, which will become a new bright spot of economic growth, and the prosperity trend is expected to last until the first half of next year. Three main lines are recommended for specific configuration: first, e-commerce; Second, branded clothing, beauty and daily chemicals with a high proportion of online sales; Third, traditional optional durable goods, such as home appliances, automobiles, consumer electronics, etc. In terms of topics, it is recommended to pay attention to Shanghai Free Trade Port and digital RMB.</p><p><b>Risk Factors:</b></p><p>The global epidemic has repeated, and vaccination has fallen short of expectations; Friction between China and the United States in the field of science and technology trade has intensified; The progress of domestic economic recovery is less than expected; Domestic and foreign macro liquidity tightened ahead of schedule beyond expectations.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186284203","content_text":"“帆起”代表全球经济的共振复苏，以及投资者风险偏好提升，“逐浪高”代表市场上行动能将逐渐增强，A股下半年将进入慢涨“三部曲”中的共振上行期，且四季度空间更大。全球经济共振复苏，通胀扰动高点已过，国内政策密集落地，宏观流动性平稳，市场流动性充裕，配置上建议淡化周期思维，三季度聚焦成长，四季度增配消费。首先，疫苗接种率稳步提升，全球经济将从错位复苏走向共振复苏，大宗商品供需矛盾缓解，通胀预期扰动高点已过。其次，国内政策“不急转弯”的同时，密集落地的创新、绿色、共享等高质量发展政策成重要看点。再次，下半年宏观流动性外松内稳，美联储今年预计不会下调购债规模，国内货币政策保持稳健中性，信用周期缓慢下行，判断不会调整政策利率；市场流动性依然充裕，银行间利率水平稳定，A股相对配置吸引力依然较强。预计下半年A股净流入资金规模达到2200亿元，其中人民币升值预期下，外资流入或继续超预期。最后，A股下半年盈利有韧性，但结构分化明显，周期弱化，成长占优。配置上，建议淡化周期思维，重视长期空间和估值弹性，三季度聚焦高成长品种，四季度增配大消费板块。A股步入共振上行期，四季度空间更大。我们在2020年11月17日发布的年度投资策略《A股市场2021年投资策略：慢涨“三部曲“》中提出，2021年A股将经历轮动慢涨期、平静期、共振上行期3个阶段，市场走势与我们判断相符：在2020年11月到今年一季度的轮动慢涨期中，顺周期品种领涨；二季度市场在通胀焦虑和流动性预期下修后进入平静期。预计下半年A股将在全球共振复苏和通胀扰动缓解下步入共振上行期，四季度空间更大。本报告沿用并细化了年度策略报告的分析框架，整合了宏观、产业、政策、主题四大策略体系，同时采用了量化和行为金融的方法，系统展望2021年下半场A股的投资机会。全球经济共振复苏，通胀预期高点已过。病毒变种和印度疫情不改变全球疫苗接种控制疫情的大趋势：预计美国、英国在6月接种比例将超过60%，德国、法国等欧陆国家在9~10月也将超过这一水平；除中国外的新兴市场今年四季度接种将提速。一方面，海外经济复苏错位逐步修正，下半年将走向共振复苏：发达经济体受接种意愿限制，接种速度下降，需求恢复和政策退出缓慢；而新兴经济体恢复动能相对增强，大宗商品供给侧约束缓解。另一方面，国内下半年制造业投资回暖、服务业需求恢复、出口持续高景气支撑经济稳中向好，预计今年二~四季度GDP相对2019年年化增长5.7~5.9%，逐季小幅改善。通胀方面，预计人民币标价的大宗价格大都已在5月触及年内高点，国内PPI同比将从5月份的7%左右高点回落至年末的3%~4%之间；而美元标价的大宗价格预计也将在三季度见顶回落。通胀对市场扰动的高点已过，对国内外的货币政策约束也将逐步缓解。政策密集落地，高质量发展成重要看点。1）上游涨价压力已缓解，预计7月政治局会议对宏观政策“不急转弯”的定调不变，金融以稳杠杆为导向，货币政策稳健中性，财政政策重在落实。2）创新、绿色、共享等高质量发展政策是下半年重要看点：创新方面，预计国家科技中长期规划和反垄断政策有望陆续出台，有利于互联网平台的长期健康发展；绿色方面，碳达峰和碳中和方案有望于6月发布，新能源产业受益最明确；共享方面，共同富裕或为全面小康之后新的关键词。3）国企改革方面，今年优化企业布局、强化中长期激励机制等政策或陆续出台，改善国企经营效率。4）资本市场改革深化落实，预计ESG、绿色金融等政策有望在今年下半年出台，全面注册制于明年一季度落地。宏观流动性外松内稳，市场流动性依然充裕。一方面，通胀约束缓解，更关注就业的美联储最早三季度末才会讨论缩减购债规模，欧洲和日本央行的行动更晚，预计三大央行2021Q3~2022Q2四个季度扩表规模分别为8700/6400/6400/4400亿美元。预计美元指数二、三季度偏弱，底部区间在88~89，而在三季度末在美联储边际收紧预期下预计将由弱转强，四季度可能上行至92以上。预计人民币兑美元先升后贬，今年运行在6.2~6.6区间，并在三季度达到6.2的高点。另一方面，下半年国内货币政策保持稳健中性，信用周期缓慢回落，预计政策利率不调整。银行间市场方面，预计三季度DR007继续围绕中枢2.2%波动，四季度边际收紧后，2.2%将成为DR007波动的下限；同时，预计下半年10年国债到期收益率将在3.0%~3.4%区间宽幅震荡。市场流动性方面，在防范地产泡沫和资管新规过渡期截止渐近的背景下，居民相对增配权益资产的动力依然较强。盈利增速结构分化，周期弱化成长占优。宏观经济恢复稳健的大环境下，下半年影响A股盈利增速的最主要因素有3个：商品价格过快上涨后的修正、成长类制造资本开支持续增长、居民可支配收入和非房信贷增速提升驱动可选消费复苏。1）总体上，预计2021年中证800非金融板块盈利增速达到32%。2）结构上，工业、消费、TMT和医药增速预计分别为37%、28%、14%和31%，消费板块在下半年对非金融净利润增速贡献程度最大。3）节奏上，2021年二季度工业板块单季净利润规模达到高点；三季度TMT和医药两大成长板块相对盈利趋势会明显占优，同时市场顺周期逻辑淡化；而从四季度到明年上半年，可选消费品将引领大消费板块，迎来一轮持续的相对景气上行趋势。下半年A股资金预计净流入2200亿元，外资或继续超预期。以上述研判为基准，我们结合投资者行为测算A股资金流动，各类投资者下半年资金净流动预测如下：1）外资方面，人民币汇率先强后弱，A股在新兴市场中配置价值依然明显，预计北向资金净流入超1700亿元；2）私募基金仓位已偏高，继一季度规模激增后，预计净流入规模1400亿元；3）险资和理财子一季度小幅减持，后续将恢复小幅流入的节奏，预计下半年净流入1500亿元；4）市场企稳下公募基金新发回暖，存量赎回稳定，预计净流入1100亿元；5）产业资本基于较大的解禁规模继续净减持，但诸多一级半资金也会流入托底，预计下半年流出1200亿元；6）今年IPO发行规模与去年接近，下半年募资规模偏大，预计为2300亿元。综上所述，预计2021年下半年A股资金净流入规模约2200亿元，三、四两个季度净流入为600亿元、1600亿元。下半年共振上行，四季度空间更大。结合上述预测，我们分别就海外因素、基本面、政策、流动性在各季度对A股大势的多空影响进行了打分，并加权计算了综合得分。其中2021年三、四季度得分为2.8、5.4；2022年一、二季度的得分是1.9、1.6。A股依然处于中长期慢涨通道中，通胀预期见顶回落，基本面扰动缓解，流动性预期修复，今年三季度A股预计在震荡中缓慢上行；全球经济共振复苏，国内政策落地提速，市场流动性依然宽松，今年四季度A股上行空间更大。配置建议：淡化周期思维，聚焦成长及消费。1）三季度强化成长配置。三季度通胀阴霾渐散，流动性预期修复，而成长类板块相对盈利趋势明显占优。建议继续关注更多由产业空间带来市值空间和估值弹性的成长板块。其中成长类制造关注新能源、科技自主可控、国防安全和智能制造；成长类消费关注化妆品、医美、免税、运动服饰、新型烟草等。主题方面，推荐受益于“碳中和”各条线实施纲要出台预期的能源安全主题，以及二季报有望超预期且受海外不稳定局势催化的国防机弹板块。2）四季度战略增配消费。四季度除了继续坚持成长配置外，全球经济共振复苏，国内居民可支配收入和非房信贷增速提升驱动可选消费复苏，将成为经济增长的新亮点，且景气趋势有望持续到明年上半年。具体配置推荐3条主线：一是电商；二是线上销售占比较高的品牌服饰、美妆日化等品类；三是传统的可选耐用品，例如家电、汽车、消费电子等。主题方面，建议关注上海自贸港和数字人民币。风险因素：全球疫情反复、疫苗接种不及预期；中美科技贸易领域摩擦加剧；国内经济复苏进度不及预期；国内外宏观流动性超预期提前收紧。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3848,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":110853696,"gmtCreate":1622441863115,"gmtModify":1704184481862,"author":{"id":"3575540187585339","authorId":"3575540187585339","name":"LittleGuiLin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8ea4a9904bb4298320579358e26ac9b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575540187585339","idStr":"3575540187585339"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"HSBC needs to replace its all British management team and drop the arrogance ","listText":"HSBC needs to replace its all British management team and drop the arrogance ","text":"HSBC needs to replace its all British management team and drop the arrogance","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/110853696","repostId":"1168745337","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168745337","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622441690,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1168745337?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-31 14:14","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"HSBC \"tailbreaking\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168745337","media":" 馨金融","summary":"1、「撤退」\n最近，汇丰控股（下简称「汇丰」）宣布退出美国零售市场，同时将重点关注财富管理和国际银行业务，目前正等待监管机构批准。\n汇丰将采取的具体措施包括，停止为美国个人客户、高级客户及部分卓越理财","content":"<p>1. \"Retreat\"</p><p>Recently, HSBC Holdings (\"HSBC\") announced its withdrawal from the U.S. retail market while focusing on wealth management and international banking, which is pending regulatory approval.</p><p>Specific measures that HSBC will take include stopping retail banking services for U.S. individual customers, premium customers and some Premier customers (customers with account balances below $75,000), and at the same time ending all related business for retail commercial banking customers (small businesses with turnover of $5 million and below).</p><p>At present, only 20-25 of HSBC's 148 branches operated in the United States have been retained, and they have been transformed into international wealth management centers to provide services for some high-net-worth customers. The related transactions are expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2022.</p><p>Not just the US market. In early May, French media reported that HSBC was conducting a strategic review of its retail banking business in France and negotiating a potential sale.</p><p>Coincidentally, Citigroup, another established banking giant, recently made a similar strategic contraction. It announced its exit from its personal banking business in 13 markets, including China, with the aim of focusing resources and investment on businesses with greater scale and growth potential. The so-called growth potential mainly comes from its investment banking and wealth management businesses.</p><p>The giants seem to have significantly shrunk their business layout, but in the capital market, institutions have given positive feedback-giving \"buy\" ratings and raising target prices. By the close of trading on May 28th, HSBC Holdings' share price returned to HK$ 50 after a year, and its market value returned to HK$ trillion.</p><p>Last year's sudden epidemic dealt a head-on blow to bank stocks-on April 1, 2020, HSBC Holdings announced that it would cancel its dividend payment in the fourth quarter of 2019 and the first three quarters of 2020, and said that it would not buy back any tickets during the year. Considering that HSBC did not cancel its dividend during the \"financial tsunami\" in 2008, many people's investment beliefs even collapsed.</p><p>However, HSBC's share price decline cannot be entirely attributed to the pandemic. Long before the pandemic spread on a large scale, the \"crisis\" of HSBC had already emerged. In February last year, HSBC announced that it would carry out a large-scale restructuring before 2022. The restructuring plan mainly includes four major measures, including:</p><p><ul><li>Cut risk assets with a total amount of more than $100 billion, and invest more assets in projects with higher profit returns;</li><li>Launched a $4.5 billion spending-cutting plan;</li><li>Massive layoff plans;</li><li>As well as streamlining complex group structures, etc.</li></ul>The business stoppage and rising risks caused by the epidemic have pushed the bank again. HSBC mentioned in the latest shareholders' statement at the general meeting that the global environment has undergone tremendous changes in 2020, and the company took the opportunity to speed up the implementation of four strategic pillars, the most important of which is:</p><p>Focus on the Group's strengths to drive business growth. We hope to establish a global leadership position in cross-border banking services required by major trade and capital corridors and become an industry leader in wealth management, particularly in Asia. There is also an important trend behind HSBC's abandonment of some retail business. As an important part of retail finance, the \"cost performance\" ratio of retail credit business is becoming lower and lower. In particular, the pandemic has not subsided for a long time, and this part of the business is greatly affected by the fluctuations of macroeconomic situation and external environment, which not only has slow growth, but also has a trend of substantial deterioration in asset quality.</p><p>Retail finance has always been known as the \"ballast stone\" of banks, but people often ignore its internal structure and asset quality. If we look at retail credit business alone, it is actually greatly affected by the cycle. In contrast, wealth management business is the real \"weak cycle\" and light capital.</p><p>2. \"Focus\"</p><p>It is not difficult to find that a series of adjustments made by HSBC for the US retail market were already within the restructuring plan, and the epidemic further accelerated its landing progress. But there are two inescapable questions: Why America? Why Retail Business?</p><p>HSBC also explained at the shareholder meeting, where they stressed that the local mass market retail business in the United States is still a good business, but HSBC lacks the scale advantage needed to compete with local rivals.</p><p>In fact, since the financial crisis, HSBC's business in North America has been greatly impacted. In recent years, the ten-year Treasury Bond interest rate in the United States has been decreasing, once falling to zero interest rate, and the narrowing of interest spread has further compressed the profit income of banks in North America. HSBC America's pre-tax profit as a declining share of the overall was only $168 million in 2020.</p><p>Not just North America, but HSBC's performance in Europe is even more dire. Due to its long-term zero or even negative interest rate environment, HSBC continued to lose money in Europe from 2016, and by 2020, its net loss before tax in Europe was as high as 4.205 billion USD. HSBC also began to continuously adjust its global business development focus a few years ago.</p><p>At the same time, HSBC became a member of the Financial Stability Board's (FSB) list of important banks in the global system in 2013, and began to be bound by more stringent risk standards.</p><p>Therefore, since 2014, HSBC began to shrink its risk-weighted assets. One of its measures was to continuously compress its retail credit business, including the consumer credit and mortgage loan portfolio in the United States, as well as its previous investment layout in emerging markets.</p><p>From this perspective, high risk and low return are the fundamental reasons why HSBC is determined to withdraw from the US retail market, and investing huge costs every year to maintain the operation of offline outlets is also contrary to the strategy of cutting expenses.</p><p>The purpose of this series of HSBC operations is only one, which is to focus on high-growth and high-return regions and tap the most potential businesses.</p><p>In fact, in 2015, the Group clearly set out the development goal of \"returning to the Asia-Pacific\", and by 2019, HSBC has once again reaffirmed its presence in the Asia-Pacific market.</p><p>From the perspective of profit contribution, HSBC Group's 2020 financial report shows that it achieved a cumulative pre-tax profit of USD 8.777 billion in 2020. In the same period, the Asia-Pacific region achieved a pre-tax profit of USD 12.832 billion, about 1.5 times that of the former. In other words, the Asia-Pacific region is HSBC's only and most important profit engine right now.</p><p>When disclosing its annual report at the beginning of this year, HSBC further proposed that it would shift its focus to the faster-growing Asian market in the future, and will invest an additional $6 billion in Asian business within five years.</p><p>In HSBC's layout, wealth management business has become one of the business priorities.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88b970ec370b88215d5cdcb9e3dd909d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>An important reason is that the economic growth and increase of residents' income in the Asia-Pacific region, especially in China, have brought huge opportunities. In HSBC's customer deposits in 2019, retail banking and wealth management business contributed nearly half of the deposit sources, and the vast majority of them came from the Asia-Pacific region.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dbd97eb1123fc4149ba9ff29b094e68\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"812\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The development of financial technology in the Asia-Pacific region has also brought new opportunities to banks-not long ago, HSBC announced that the number of users of Payme APP in Hong Kong market has exceeded 2 million in three years, and the market share has reached 70% in terms of individual-to-individual transaction amount. As a transfer payment software, HSBC is still promoting the continuous landing of its merchant side.</p><p>However, on the whole, both the retention of some high-net-worth customers in the United States and HSBC's layout in the Asia-Pacific region reveal its ambitions in high-net-worth customers and private banking. Including the plan to retain more than 20 international wealth management centers in the U.S. market, it is also aimed at continuing its coverage in the U.S. market and becoming an important part of its international network.</p><p>As far as the mainland market is concerned, HSBC entered the mainland market at the beginning of the century by relying on the \"excellent wealth management\" business, that is, providing foreign currency deposits and other services for high net worth customers. At that time, only the total deposits of US$50,000 or more could become \"excellent customers\". Then HSBC launched its private banking business in 2008, and $1 million became the minimum threshold for opening a private account.</p><p>Today, in the Asia-Pacific region, especially in the Chinese market, high-net-worth customers are rising rapidly. According to the 2021 China Private Wealth Report jointly released by China Merchants Bank and Bain & Company, in 2020, the total investable assets of individuals in China reached RMB 241 trillion, and the number of high-net-worth individuals in China with investable assets above RMB 10 million reached 2.62 million.</p><p>Under the premise of continuous improvement of macro-economy, China's private wealth market has also ushered in a steady development trend. It is estimated that by the end of 2021, the number of high net worth individuals in China is expected to approach 3 million, and the total scale of investable assets will exceed 90 trillion.</p><p>HSBC obviously won't miss this one feast.</p><p>3. \"Competition\"</p><p>HSBC is not the only one planning a wealth management feast in China.</p><p>Since China issued 11 measures to open the financial industry to the outside world in 2019, foreign banking giants have targeted China, a rapidly rising market. A clear trend is that wealth management giants can be seen among shareholders of many bank wealth management subsidiaries.</p><p>In the 2020 financial reports of domestic banks, wealth management has also become a high-frequency word, and occupies an unprecedented strategic height. China Merchants Bank regards \"Big Wealth Management Value Circulation Chain\" as the next development goal, Industrial Bank proposes to become a \"first-class wealth management bank in the whole market\", and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank is committed to building a \"preferred bank for wealth management\"...</p><p>On the one hand, this is because the global banking industry is facing the impact of cyclical shocks and revenue pressure. As a weak cyclical, high-yield and capital-light business segment, wealth management business is the first choice for bank transformation. At this point, JPMorgan Chase's business performance in 2020, a benchmark in the global banking industry, is already telling.</p><p>At the same time, wealth management business, as the intersection of asset management, investment banking, retail and corporate business, may revitalize the overall situation once it is set up, which is also the choice of many banks after many years of planning.</p><p>There may inevitably be more competition between Chinese and foreign banks in the wealth management market, especially in high-net-worth customers and private banking services. They will face an emerging market that is changing dramatically and challenging at the same time.</p><p>As mentioned in the aforementioned report, in 2021, the structure of high-net-worth individuals in China will be richer and more diversified. With the rapid development of new economies and new industries such as the Internet and new energy, the equity appreciation effect will boost the rise of new rich people.</p><p>At the same time, the comprehensiveness and diversification of the needs of high-net-worth individuals in China has deepened. Besides paying attention to personal needs, it also extends to the needs of families, enterprises and society, covering financial and non-financial needs, and non-financial needs such as medical health, high-end lifestyle, tax and legal consultation have risen.</p><p>From this perspective, while the market cake is expanding rapidly, banks can also find different ways out based on their own advantages. The advantages of some foreign banks, including HSBC, lie in their global network and asset resources, and their century-old service accumulation, while the domestic banking industry can seek more breakthroughs from industry, scene, ecology and financial technology.</p>","source":"lsy1571380844538","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>HSBC \"tailbreaking\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHSBC \"tailbreaking\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\"> 馨金融</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-31 14:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>1. \"Retreat\"</p><p>Recently, HSBC Holdings (\"HSBC\") announced its withdrawal from the U.S. retail market while focusing on wealth management and international banking, which is pending regulatory approval.</p><p>Specific measures that HSBC will take include stopping retail banking services for U.S. individual customers, premium customers and some Premier customers (customers with account balances below $75,000), and at the same time ending all related business for retail commercial banking customers (small businesses with turnover of $5 million and below).</p><p>At present, only 20-25 of HSBC's 148 branches operated in the United States have been retained, and they have been transformed into international wealth management centers to provide services for some high-net-worth customers. The related transactions are expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2022.</p><p>Not just the US market. In early May, French media reported that HSBC was conducting a strategic review of its retail banking business in France and negotiating a potential sale.</p><p>Coincidentally, Citigroup, another established banking giant, recently made a similar strategic contraction. It announced its exit from its personal banking business in 13 markets, including China, with the aim of focusing resources and investment on businesses with greater scale and growth potential. The so-called growth potential mainly comes from its investment banking and wealth management businesses.</p><p>The giants seem to have significantly shrunk their business layout, but in the capital market, institutions have given positive feedback-giving \"buy\" ratings and raising target prices. By the close of trading on May 28th, HSBC Holdings' share price returned to HK$ 50 after a year, and its market value returned to HK$ trillion.</p><p>Last year's sudden epidemic dealt a head-on blow to bank stocks-on April 1, 2020, HSBC Holdings announced that it would cancel its dividend payment in the fourth quarter of 2019 and the first three quarters of 2020, and said that it would not buy back any tickets during the year. Considering that HSBC did not cancel its dividend during the \"financial tsunami\" in 2008, many people's investment beliefs even collapsed.</p><p>However, HSBC's share price decline cannot be entirely attributed to the pandemic. Long before the pandemic spread on a large scale, the \"crisis\" of HSBC had already emerged. In February last year, HSBC announced that it would carry out a large-scale restructuring before 2022. The restructuring plan mainly includes four major measures, including:</p><p><ul><li>Cut risk assets with a total amount of more than $100 billion, and invest more assets in projects with higher profit returns;</li><li>Launched a $4.5 billion spending-cutting plan;</li><li>Massive layoff plans;</li><li>As well as streamlining complex group structures, etc.</li></ul>The business stoppage and rising risks caused by the epidemic have pushed the bank again. HSBC mentioned in the latest shareholders' statement at the general meeting that the global environment has undergone tremendous changes in 2020, and the company took the opportunity to speed up the implementation of four strategic pillars, the most important of which is:</p><p>Focus on the Group's strengths to drive business growth. We hope to establish a global leadership position in cross-border banking services required by major trade and capital corridors and become an industry leader in wealth management, particularly in Asia. There is also an important trend behind HSBC's abandonment of some retail business. As an important part of retail finance, the \"cost performance\" ratio of retail credit business is becoming lower and lower. In particular, the pandemic has not subsided for a long time, and this part of the business is greatly affected by the fluctuations of macroeconomic situation and external environment, which not only has slow growth, but also has a trend of substantial deterioration in asset quality.</p><p>Retail finance has always been known as the \"ballast stone\" of banks, but people often ignore its internal structure and asset quality. If we look at retail credit business alone, it is actually greatly affected by the cycle. In contrast, wealth management business is the real \"weak cycle\" and light capital.</p><p>2. \"Focus\"</p><p>It is not difficult to find that a series of adjustments made by HSBC for the US retail market were already within the restructuring plan, and the epidemic further accelerated its landing progress. But there are two inescapable questions: Why America? Why Retail Business?</p><p>HSBC also explained at the shareholder meeting, where they stressed that the local mass market retail business in the United States is still a good business, but HSBC lacks the scale advantage needed to compete with local rivals.</p><p>In fact, since the financial crisis, HSBC's business in North America has been greatly impacted. In recent years, the ten-year Treasury Bond interest rate in the United States has been decreasing, once falling to zero interest rate, and the narrowing of interest spread has further compressed the profit income of banks in North America. HSBC America's pre-tax profit as a declining share of the overall was only $168 million in 2020.</p><p>Not just North America, but HSBC's performance in Europe is even more dire. Due to its long-term zero or even negative interest rate environment, HSBC continued to lose money in Europe from 2016, and by 2020, its net loss before tax in Europe was as high as 4.205 billion USD. HSBC also began to continuously adjust its global business development focus a few years ago.</p><p>At the same time, HSBC became a member of the Financial Stability Board's (FSB) list of important banks in the global system in 2013, and began to be bound by more stringent risk standards.</p><p>Therefore, since 2014, HSBC began to shrink its risk-weighted assets. One of its measures was to continuously compress its retail credit business, including the consumer credit and mortgage loan portfolio in the United States, as well as its previous investment layout in emerging markets.</p><p>From this perspective, high risk and low return are the fundamental reasons why HSBC is determined to withdraw from the US retail market, and investing huge costs every year to maintain the operation of offline outlets is also contrary to the strategy of cutting expenses.</p><p>The purpose of this series of HSBC operations is only one, which is to focus on high-growth and high-return regions and tap the most potential businesses.</p><p>In fact, in 2015, the Group clearly set out the development goal of \"returning to the Asia-Pacific\", and by 2019, HSBC has once again reaffirmed its presence in the Asia-Pacific market.</p><p>From the perspective of profit contribution, HSBC Group's 2020 financial report shows that it achieved a cumulative pre-tax profit of USD 8.777 billion in 2020. In the same period, the Asia-Pacific region achieved a pre-tax profit of USD 12.832 billion, about 1.5 times that of the former. In other words, the Asia-Pacific region is HSBC's only and most important profit engine right now.</p><p>When disclosing its annual report at the beginning of this year, HSBC further proposed that it would shift its focus to the faster-growing Asian market in the future, and will invest an additional $6 billion in Asian business within five years.</p><p>In HSBC's layout, wealth management business has become one of the business priorities.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88b970ec370b88215d5cdcb9e3dd909d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>An important reason is that the economic growth and increase of residents' income in the Asia-Pacific region, especially in China, have brought huge opportunities. In HSBC's customer deposits in 2019, retail banking and wealth management business contributed nearly half of the deposit sources, and the vast majority of them came from the Asia-Pacific region.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dbd97eb1123fc4149ba9ff29b094e68\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"812\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The development of financial technology in the Asia-Pacific region has also brought new opportunities to banks-not long ago, HSBC announced that the number of users of Payme APP in Hong Kong market has exceeded 2 million in three years, and the market share has reached 70% in terms of individual-to-individual transaction amount. As a transfer payment software, HSBC is still promoting the continuous landing of its merchant side.</p><p>However, on the whole, both the retention of some high-net-worth customers in the United States and HSBC's layout in the Asia-Pacific region reveal its ambitions in high-net-worth customers and private banking. Including the plan to retain more than 20 international wealth management centers in the U.S. market, it is also aimed at continuing its coverage in the U.S. market and becoming an important part of its international network.</p><p>As far as the mainland market is concerned, HSBC entered the mainland market at the beginning of the century by relying on the \"excellent wealth management\" business, that is, providing foreign currency deposits and other services for high net worth customers. At that time, only the total deposits of US$50,000 or more could become \"excellent customers\". Then HSBC launched its private banking business in 2008, and $1 million became the minimum threshold for opening a private account.</p><p>Today, in the Asia-Pacific region, especially in the Chinese market, high-net-worth customers are rising rapidly. According to the 2021 China Private Wealth Report jointly released by China Merchants Bank and Bain & Company, in 2020, the total investable assets of individuals in China reached RMB 241 trillion, and the number of high-net-worth individuals in China with investable assets above RMB 10 million reached 2.62 million.</p><p>Under the premise of continuous improvement of macro-economy, China's private wealth market has also ushered in a steady development trend. It is estimated that by the end of 2021, the number of high net worth individuals in China is expected to approach 3 million, and the total scale of investable assets will exceed 90 trillion.</p><p>HSBC obviously won't miss this one feast.</p><p>3. \"Competition\"</p><p>HSBC is not the only one planning a wealth management feast in China.</p><p>Since China issued 11 measures to open the financial industry to the outside world in 2019, foreign banking giants have targeted China, a rapidly rising market. A clear trend is that wealth management giants can be seen among shareholders of many bank wealth management subsidiaries.</p><p>In the 2020 financial reports of domestic banks, wealth management has also become a high-frequency word, and occupies an unprecedented strategic height. China Merchants Bank regards \"Big Wealth Management Value Circulation Chain\" as the next development goal, Industrial Bank proposes to become a \"first-class wealth management bank in the whole market\", and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank is committed to building a \"preferred bank for wealth management\"...</p><p>On the one hand, this is because the global banking industry is facing the impact of cyclical shocks and revenue pressure. As a weak cyclical, high-yield and capital-light business segment, wealth management business is the first choice for bank transformation. At this point, JPMorgan Chase's business performance in 2020, a benchmark in the global banking industry, is already telling.</p><p>At the same time, wealth management business, as the intersection of asset management, investment banking, retail and corporate business, may revitalize the overall situation once it is set up, which is also the choice of many banks after many years of planning.</p><p>There may inevitably be more competition between Chinese and foreign banks in the wealth management market, especially in high-net-worth customers and private banking services. They will face an emerging market that is changing dramatically and challenging at the same time.</p><p>As mentioned in the aforementioned report, in 2021, the structure of high-net-worth individuals in China will be richer and more diversified. With the rapid development of new economies and new industries such as the Internet and new energy, the equity appreciation effect will boost the rise of new rich people.</p><p>At the same time, the comprehensiveness and diversification of the needs of high-net-worth individuals in China has deepened. Besides paying attention to personal needs, it also extends to the needs of families, enterprises and society, covering financial and non-financial needs, and non-financial needs such as medical health, high-end lifestyle, tax and legal consultation have risen.</p><p>From this perspective, while the market cake is expanding rapidly, banks can also find different ways out based on their own advantages. The advantages of some foreign banks, including HSBC, lie in their global network and asset resources, and their century-old service accumulation, while the domestic banking industry can seek more breakthroughs from industry, scene, ecology and financial technology.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/n6JB9UtWTZmhu6Pk2CkKrQ\"> 馨金融</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67bb9f6d22d097ff0cb960f84fc5dea3","relate_stocks":{"00005":"汇丰控股","HSBC":"汇丰"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/n6JB9UtWTZmhu6Pk2CkKrQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168745337","content_text":"1、「撤退」\n最近，汇丰控股（下简称「汇丰」）宣布退出美国零售市场，同时将重点关注财富管理和国际银行业务，目前正等待监管机构批准。\n汇丰将采取的具体措施包括，停止为美国个人客户、高级客户及部分卓越理财客户（账户余额低于75000美元的客户）提供零售银行服务，与此同时，结束所有零售商业银行客户（营业额在500万美元及以下的小企业）的相关业务。\n而目前汇丰在美国运营的148家分支机构仅保留20-25家，并转变为国际财富管理中心，为部分高净值客户提供服务，相关交易预计将在2022年一季度完成。\n不只是美国市场，5月初，有法国媒体报道，汇丰正在对法国的零售银行业务进行战略评估，并就潜在出售进行谈判。\n无独有偶，另外一家老牌银行业巨头花旗也在前不久做出了类似的战略收缩。其宣布退出包括中国在内的13个市场的个人银行业务，目的是把资源和投资聚焦在更具规模和增长潜力的业务上。而所谓的增长潜力，主要来自其投行和财富管理业务。\n巨头们看似大幅收缩了业务布局，但在资本市场上，机构却纷纷给予了积极的反馈——给出了「买入」评级并上调目标价格。截止到5月28日收盘，汇丰控股时隔一年后股价重新站上50港元、市值重回万亿港元。\n去年突如其来的疫情给了银行股迎头一击——2020年4月1日，汇丰控股宣布，将取消2019年四季度和2020年前三季度的派息，并表示年内将不进行任何的购票回购。考虑到汇丰在2008年「金融海啸」时都未曾取消派息，许多人的投资信仰甚至因此坍塌。\n然而，汇丰的股价下跌并不能完全归咎于疫情。早在疫情大规模蔓延之前，汇丰的「危机」已经出现。去年2月，汇丰就曾宣布将于2022年之前进行大规模重组，重组计划主要有四大举措，包括：\n\n削减总量超过1000亿美元的风险资产，将更多资产投入到利润回报更高的项目中去；\n推出45亿美元的削减支出计划；\n大规模的裁员计划；\n以及精简复杂的集团架构等。\n\n疫情带来的业务停止、风险攀升又推了银行一把，汇丰在最新发布的股东在大会声明中提到，2020年全球环境经历巨大变化，公司趁机加快执行四大策略支柱，其中最重要的一大支柱就是：\n\n 专注集团优势，推动业务增长。期望在主要贸易及资金走廊所需的跨境银行服务上建立全球领导地位，并成为财富管理（特别是在亚洲）方面的业界翘楚。\n\n汇丰割舍部分零售业务的背后还有一个重要的趋势，作为零售金融的重要组成部分，零售信贷业务的「性价比」正在变得越来越低。尤其，疫情久久未能平息，这部分业务受宏观经济形势和外部环境波动的影响极大，不仅增长缓慢，资产质量也有大幅恶化的趋势。\n零售金融素来有银行「压舱石」的美誉，但大家往往忽略了它的内在结构和资产质量，如果单看零售信贷类业务，其实受周期影响很大，相较之下，财富管理业务才是真正的「弱周期」且轻资本。\n2、「聚焦」\n不难发现，汇丰针对美国零售市场做出的一系列调整本就在重组计划之内，而疫情进一步加速了其落地的进度。但不可回避的问题有两个：为什么是美国？为什么是零售业务？\n汇丰在股东大会中也有所解释，他们强调，美国本地大众市场零售业务依然是一项良好的业务，但汇丰缺乏与当地对手竞争所需的规模优势。\n事实上，从金融危机之后，汇丰在北美的业务就受到了极大冲击。近年来，美国十年期国债利率不断降低，一度下滑至零利率，息差的缩小又进一步压缩了银行在北美的利润收入。汇丰美国的除税前利润占整体比重不断下降，到2020年只有1.68亿美元。\n不只是北美，汇丰在欧洲的业绩表现更加惨不忍睹。由于其长期的零利率甚至负利率环境，从2016年开始汇丰在欧洲持续亏损，到2020年，其欧洲地区除税前净亏损高达42.05亿美元。汇丰也在几年前就开始持续调整全球业务的发展重心。\n与此同时，汇丰在2013年成为为金融稳定委员会（FSB）的全球系统重要银行名单中的一员，开始受到更加严苛的风险标准约束。\n因此，从2014年开始，汇丰开始收缩风险加权资产，其采取的措施之一就是不断压缩零售信贷业务，包括美国的消费信贷和按揭贷款组合，以及其此前其在新兴市场进行的投资布局。\n从这个角度看，高风险与低回报是汇丰决心退出美国零售市场的根本原因，每年投入巨额成本维持线下网点的运营也与削减开支的策略相违背。\n汇丰这一系列操作的目的只有一个，就是专注于高增长、高回报的地区，挖掘最具潜力的业务。\n事实上，集团在2015年就明确提出了「重回亚太」的发展目标，到2019年，汇丰再次重申其在亚太市场的布局。\n从利润贡献来看，汇丰集团2020年财报显示，2020年累计实现除税前利润87.77亿美元，同期，亚太地区实现除税前利润128.32亿美元，大约是前者的1.5倍。换言之，眼下亚太地区是汇丰唯一也是最重要的利润引擎。\n而在今年初披露年报时，汇丰也进一步提出，未来将重心转向增长更快的亚洲市场，五年内将向亚洲业务追加投资60亿美元。\n在汇丰的布局中，财富管理业务成为了业务重点之一。\n\n一个重要的原因是，亚太地区，尤其是中国市场的经济增长、居民收入增加带来了巨大的机会——在汇丰2019年的客户存款中，零售银行及财富管理业务贡献了接近的半数的存款来源，而其中的绝大部分都来自亚太地区。\n\n而金融科技在亚太地区的发展也给银行带来了新的机会——不久前汇丰宣布，其在香港市场推出Payme APP三年来用户数已经突破200万，以个人对个人交易金额计算，市场份额达到70%。作为一款转账支付软件，汇丰还在推动其商户端的持续落地。\n但从整体来看来看，无论是在美国保留部分高净值客户，还是汇丰在亚太区的布局，都透露出其在高净值客户以及私人银行业务上的野心。包括在美国市场将保留超过20家国际财富管理中心的计划，也是为了持续在美国市场的覆盖，成为其国际网络的重要一环。\n就内地市场而言，汇丰在世纪初进入内地市场就是依托「卓越理财」业务，即为高净值客户提供外币存款等服务，彼时只有存款总额达到5万美元以上才能成为「卓越客户」。而后汇丰在2008年启动私人银行业务，100万美元成为开设私人账户的最低门槛。\n到今天，亚太地区，尤其是中国市场上，高净值客户群体迅速崛起。根据招行和贝恩公司联合发布的《2021中国私人财富报告》，2020年，中国个人可投资资产总规模达241万亿人民币，可投资资产在1000万人民币以上的中国高净值人群数量达262万人。\n在宏观经济持续向好的前提下，中国私人财富市场也迎来稳健发展态势。预计到2021年底，中国高净值人群数量预计接近300万人，可投资资产总规模将突破90万亿。\n汇丰显然不会错过这一场盛宴。\n3、「竞争」\n图谋中国财富管理盛宴的不只是汇丰一家。\n自2019年我国发布了11条金融业对外开放措施之后，国外银行业巨头都瞄准了中国这个快速崛起中的市场。一个鲜明的趋势是，多家银行理财子公司的股东中都可以看到财富管理巨头的身影。\n而在国内银行的2020年财报中，财富管理也成为了一个高频词，并且占据了前所未有的战略高度。招行将「大财富管理价值循环链」作为下一阶段发展目标、兴业银行提出要成为「全市场一流的财富管理银行」、浦发银行致力于打造「财富管理首选银行」……\n这一方面是因为全球银行业都面临着周期震荡的冲击和营收压力，财富管理业务作为一个弱周期、高收益、轻资本的业务板块，是银行转型的首选。在这一点上，摩根大通作为全球银行业的标杆，在2020年的业务表现已经很能说明问题。\n与此同时，财富管理业务作为资管、投行、零售、对公业务的交叉点，一朝落子，可能盘活全局，这也是许多银行筹谋多年后的选择。\n中外银行在财富管理市场上，尤其是高净值客户与私人银行服务方面，或许不可避免地将产生更多竞争。而它们将面对的是一个正在剧烈变化，同时充满挑战的新兴市场。\n前述报告提到，2021年，中国高净值人群结构更加丰富多元，伴随着互联网、新能源等新经济、新行业发展迅猛，股权增值效应助推新富人群崛起。\n与此同时，中国高净值人群需求的综合化、多元化程度加深，在关注个人需求之外，还延伸到家庭、企业、社会需求，涵盖金融及非金融需求，医疗健康、高端生活方式、税务法律咨询等非金融需求崛起。\n从这个角度来看，市场蛋糕迅速膨胀的同时，各家银行也可以结合自身优势找到不同的出路。包括汇丰在内的一些外资银行优势在于全球布局的网络和资产资源、百年传承的服务积累等，而国内银行业则可以从产业、场景、生态与金融科技中寻求更多突破。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00005":0.9,"HSBC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}