中信：政策变化下，国内互联网巨头估值显现安全边际

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中信：政策变化下，国内互联网巨头估值显现安全边际

中信证券研究2021-07-26

文丨许英博陈俊云今年以来，中短期基本面预期的差异，导致中美互联网巨头股价走势出现明显分化，近期教培政策出台带来的情绪扰动，亦加剧这一趋势。短期来看，受多因素影响，国内互联网巨头短期业绩增速较美股同类公司明显不占优，同时2022/23年业绩一致预期仍可能在下半年面临下修风险，短期股价走势缺乏明显上行支撑。中长期角度，我们认为国内互联网板块的基本面依旧稳健，政策监管的主旨在于维护互联网行业的长...

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Comment（16）

Sacherla
·2021-07-26
有道理?
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龙疼虎乐
·2021-07-26
短期不要碰中丐股[噴血] [噴血]
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86的老虎
·2021-07-26
自己的錢自己做主，要是信了你的話，我的錢就變成了你的錢。空，堅決的空。
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7
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Apple001
·2021-07-26
離底部還遠，現在是國企up民down
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7
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e天天见红e
·2021-07-26
離底部還差得遠呢，相比於去年，估值都在2倍以上，騙套而已
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1
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但行好事玫瑰自来
·2021-07-26
爲了長期持續發展？誰都知道，啥時候想讓你發展了，啥時候纔是那個長期。
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2
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MillieZ
·2021-07-26
[微笑]
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算沙
·2021-07-26
老鄉別跑？
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3
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厉害我哥
·2021-07-26
沒話可說了開始通篇造詞造句了嚇得我趕緊跑了
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1
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mun88
·2021-07-26
加油
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LanceYang
·2021-07-26
跌慘了任然要感謝政策
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4
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长河_967
·2021-07-26
都不記得中信什麼時候說過正經話了[捂臉]
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3
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观月
·2021-07-26
互聯網巨頭的時代已經過去了……
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新手_不会炒股
·2021-07-26
說到底還是計劃經濟，哪來的市場經濟
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13
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yanfeitamiya
·2021-07-26
這是號召大家別跑麼？又當又立？
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- Yucy_TG_Mini:
  Yes
  2021-07-26
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- selfinvestor:
  老乡别跑
  2021-07-26
  Reply
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时间慢点走
·2021-07-26
Zan
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陈俊云\n今年以来，中短期基本面预期的差异，导致中美互联网巨头股价走势出现明显分化，近期教培政策出台带来的情绪扰动，亦加剧这一趋势。\n短期来看，受多因素影响，国内互联网巨头短期业绩增速较美股同类公司明显不占优，同时2022/23年业绩一致预期仍可能在下半年面临下修风险，短期股价走势缺乏明显上行支撑。\n中长期角度，我们认为国内互联网板块的基本面依旧稳健，政策监管的主旨在于维护互联网行业的长周期健康、有序发展，其带来的可能影响和教培不具可比性、参考性。\n当前时点，国内互联网巨头估值正逐步显现出安全边际，随着行业的规范，2022年互联网公司业绩有望逐步改善。我们建议投资者逐步关注长周期竞争地位稳固，且具有新业务&新货币化拓展空间的一线龙头公司。\n自今年2月以来，中概、美股互联网板块股价走势出现明显分化，中概互联网巨头自2月高点以来累计平均下跌超过30%，同期美股同类企业股价则不断创下历史新高，平均涨幅超过20%，主要个股层面，自2月18日至今，腾讯股价-29%，阿里-21%。百度-40%，美团-34%，京东-32%，而Facebook+37%，谷歌+26%，亚马逊+10%。\n在全球资金定价的背景下，我们判断中美互联网巨头股价走势的差异，主要源于多因素影响下的中短期基本面预期的差异，主要体现在互联网产业增速、宏观经济复苏节奏、政策监管等层面。上周的教培政策发布，再次引发市场的剧幅波动。\n我们认为，当前互联网公司的价格已经部分price in了市场的悲观预期，产业中长期内在逻辑并未发生明显变化，同时经历近期的快速下跌后，无论是参考历史相对水平，抑或是绝对数字，板块估值已回到偏低位置，中长期配置价值正在逐步显现。\n互联网：数字经济的基石，中长期基础地位稳固。\n作为最近40年科技领域最为主要的创新之一，互联网以底层智能硬件、通信网络、软件等技术为依托，实现了全球范围内信息的高效连接、流通，从而使得个人在信息获取、社交互动、媒体娱乐、生活服务等层面的效率实现大幅提升，而从2C向2B领域的扩展，亦有望使得互联网在企业部门中长期资源配置效率方面发挥重要作用。\n互联网产业有效发展，本身涉及基础信息技术、产品设计&运营、商业模式创新、用户&产业理解等维度，属于典型的高新技术范畴，同时互联网企业对线上数据的合理掌控和利用，所带来的自身运营效率持续改善，亦使其具有较高的护城河、竞争壁垒。\n当前国内的政策监管，核心主旨在于维护国内互联网产业的长周期有序、健康发展，实现监管能力和产业发展程度相匹配，而今年以来针对阿里、腾讯等处罚案例，亦和这一政策主张完全吻合，部分市场观点将监管政策对互联网行业的可能影响和教培行业做简单类比，缺乏严谨的逻辑支撑，以及对互联网产业本质的深刻理解。\n基本面：多因素导致中概互联网巨头中短期业绩增速承压，但长周期的投资价值依旧存在。\n全球化定价背景下，中概互联网板块今年走势偏弱，主要还是源于基本面预期差异，体现在：\n1）宏观经济，国内在全球最早实现了新冠疫情的有效控制，同时国内经济亦从2020Q3开始明显复苏，而欧美经济复苏进程滞后约2~3个季度；\n2）互联网发展，当下国内互联网产业发展较海外市场更为成熟，2020年美国在线广告渗透率、电商的渗透率仅为70%、15%，显著低于同期的中国市场（90%、25%）；\n3）国内主要互联网巨头均表示今年会加大投入，主要投向产品、基础研发、2B服务等层面。\n目前市场对国内互联网巨头2021年业绩下修已有充分预期，但中期一致预期仍存在进一步下修的风险（一致预期腾讯2022年EPS+25.3%，阿里巴巴+25.1%），同时国内宏观经济增速放缓，互联网产业发展成熟，使得国内互联网巨头中长期增长中枢有进一步下移的可能，市场需要适应这一变化。\n长期而言，和互联网行业发展程度相匹配的政策监管，有利于产业长期健康发展，国内互联网板块长周期的市场相对地位仍然存在，依旧具备长周期的投资价值。\n估值：国内互联网巨头安全边际正逐步显现，股价接近底部位置。\n当前FAAMG整体动态估值约38倍位置（不含亚马逊为31倍），处于历史中枢的上沿，中短期良好的业绩确定性，以及相对占优的成长性等，料使其继续成为全球一线资金主要追逐的对象。\n国内互联网巨头虽短期业绩增速疲软，以及面临2022/23年一致预期下修可能，叠加近期监管政策带来的情绪扰动，短期股价上行缺乏明显催化剂。但考虑到中长期稳健的基本面，今年业绩预期的充分调整，我们判断互联网公司中长期估值的安全边际正在逐步显现。例如阿里市值对应其核心商业的估值（FY2022E，EV/EBITA）仅为10倍，百度市值对应于核心搜索&信息流业务估值（2021E）仅为15X等。\n我们建议投资者逐步加大对国内一线互联网龙头（长周期竞争地位稳固，且具有新业务&新货币化空间）的关注力度。但在政策预期尚未明确的阶段，股价仍有大幅波动的可能。\n风险因素：\n情绪因素导致市场波动持续放大风险；监管政策落地带来的扰动风险；互联网行业发展创新显著放缓风险；行业竞争持续加剧风险；全球流动性快速收紧风险等；教培政策变化后可能导致估值偏好的下降，引发股价进一步下跌。\n投资建议：\n全球化定价背景下，业绩增速的相对不占优为今年中概互联网板块股价走势偏弱的核心因素，但2022年后有望得到改善。我们判断国内互联网巨头仍面临监管政策带来的持续情绪扰动，以及中期业绩一致预期下修等风险，短期股价上行缺乏明显催化剂。\n当前政策监管的主旨在于维护互联网行业的长周期健康、有序发展，其带来的可能影响和教培不具有任何的可比性、可参考性，国内互联网板块长周期仍具备投资价值。经历2月份以来的持续大幅下跌后，目前国内互联网巨头中长期的安全边际正逐步显现，我们建议投资者逐步关注长周期竞争地位稳固，且具有新业务&新货币化持续拓展空间的一线龙头企业。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":800800215,"gmtCreate":1627288726537,"gmtModify":1703486822971,"author":{"id":"3567491290301415","authorId":"3567491290301415","name":"Sacherla","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d6baeb5f5002aa887a7fb65d0a3c847","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3567491290301415","authorIdStr":"3567491290301415"},"htmlText":"有道理?","listText":"有道理?","text":"有道理?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/800800215","repostId":1189567116,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":800167407,"gmtCreate":1627287136609,"gmtModify":1703486761958,"author":{"id":"3482550532367433","authorId":"3482550532367433","name":"龙疼虎乐","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/1530cc5cd548815469551d0b8c1c8ee8","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3482550532367433","authorIdStr":"3482550532367433"},"htmlText":"短期不要碰中丐股[噴血]&nbsp;[噴血]&nbsp;","listText":"短期不要碰中丐股[噴血]&nbsp;[噴血]&nbsp;","text":"短期不要碰中丐股[噴血] 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