Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead

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Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead

cnbc2021-04-08

Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months. In my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was "tech's reign of ...

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JohnL
·2021-04-08
For real?
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Xusheng
·2021-04-08
.
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2
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yl13413
·2021-04-08
Cool
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1
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mcwood
·2021-04-08
[得意]
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LimLS
·2021-04-08
Tech had become more and more closely linked to our daily lives. Growth potential is huge. But choose the strong tech companies, not those that are hyped up.
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dalechip
·2021-04-08
Tiger 加油。Will support u as always [財迷] [財迷]
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RTHS
·2021-04-08
Technology will continue to distrup our lives,Like it or not. Tech stock may take a step back but long term bullish. 5G and even 6G is near future
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kuehlapis
·2021-04-08
the future is tech
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Jeremyyeojc
·2021-04-08
Is this fake news so we sell and they buy up?
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VickJW
·2021-04-08
Like and comment please[開心]
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ahswee
·2021-04-08
Tech is here to stay for the long ride. It'll just be another speed bump along the road to the moon!
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3
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computers80
·2021-04-08
Good article
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Eaglewings
·2021-04-08
I think we should consider moving away from dividing companies into growth, value etc.Companies exist and play a role in our societies and life for a reason. Why must we call them “tech” stocks when the world and all sectors are going through a digital evolution over time!
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- kuehlapis:
  couldn't agree more!
  2021-04-08
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- VickJW:
  well said
  2021-04-08
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- Eaglewings:
  Thank you.
  2021-04-08
  Reply
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Lunchenmeat
·2021-04-08
[驚訝]
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jer88
·2021-04-08
Please lkke amd comment
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Jo5tarz
·2021-04-08
Fake news
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Hopehope赋予希望
·2021-04-08
Selective tech stocks will be good. Jamie Simon says fintech is the greatest threat to banks
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- FlyHighFlyReplying toHopehope赋予希望:
  Sorry. I meant younger group.
  2021-04-08
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- jer88:
  agree
  2021-04-08
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- Hopehope赋予希望:
  haha I like tiger but got people who don't like too
  2021-04-08
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Jinyuan
·2021-04-08
The short term market sentiment is dependent on news and market analyst. The long term market sentiment is dependent on the company fundamentals, vision and performance.Tech is here to stay. Growth may not be as bullish as before but tech has and will have an increasing influence in our lives.
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- LimLS:
  yes. tech is here to stay. growth can be seen every year. but it is also true that some tech counters are much over valued. so let's choose our tech stocks with care.
  2021-04-08
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- ahswee:
  well said!
  2021-04-08
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MarketPulse
·2021-04-08
Good article. Yes, diversify still the best
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nctony
·2021-04-08
Hope so
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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOp-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-08 09:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".IXIC","symbol_name":"NASDAQ Composite","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html","article_id":"1193572308","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"cnbc_highlight","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}.ArticleHeader-headline{#titleStyle#}a{#lv2TextColor#}.ArticleHeader-time, .Author-authorNameAndSocial a{#sourceStyle#;}","selectors":".PageBuilder-pageWrapper","filters":".ArticleHeader-eyebrow, .RelatedTags-relatedTags","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193572308","pubTimestamp":1617843930,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"cnbc_highlight","name":"CNBC"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"cnbc.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"translate_title":"署名评论：科技股的提振不会持续，更多的痛苦还在后头","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9},"content_text":"Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of relative dominance has come to an end.\" The tech sector as measured by theXLKETF went on to trail theS&P 500by about 6% over the next month, and growth trailed value by over 14% during that same period.\nThis is not meant to be a victory lap; far from it. A month of underperformance hardly meets the criteria for a loss of dominance. Further, the weakness of tech and growth stocks has started to reverse of late, clawing back about half of that initial underperformance.\nWith stocks likeApple,Facebook, andAmazontrading down to their 200-day moving averages, what's next? Is tech ready to make a comeback, or is this just a pause along the road of further underperformance? I believe it is the latter.\nThis isn't your grandfather's momentum\nIn recent years, technology stocks have been synonymous with momentum. Today, tech accounts for nearly 35% of the widely trackediShares Momentum ETF (MTUM). This is about to change.\nMTUM will rebalance during the last week of May, and the weighting to technology will likely be cut in half. Estimates forecast thatfinancials,consumer discretionary,andindustrialswill carry the largest weights, and with that, additional flows will likely be attracted to those sectors.\nThis simple reconstitution is yet another catalyst for further underperformance from technology. Those that want exposure to momentum, whether through a passive ETF or an actively managed strategy, will by rule be owning less tech and more value. In fact, given tech's heavy weighting in most indexes, every 1% rotation out of \"growth & defensive\" sectors is nearly a 3% increase into \"cyclical\" sectors.\nValuation difference: hardly a dent\nAlthough the tech sector’s underperformance in 2021 has been noteworthy, it hasn’t made a dent in the historically wide valuation difference between growth and value stocks.\nLet’s not forget that over the past 10-years, growth has outperformed value by an average of 7%per year. I think many investors still haven’t come to terms with the idea that value can outperform for an extended period.\nAs I wrote in February, “The problem is that current prices [for growth stocks] necessitate a level of future growth that will be very difficult to realize”.  I still believe this to be the case. For example,Zoomis down 43% from its all-time high, but the stock still trades at 84x next year’s earnings.Teslais similar, down 23% from its high, but still trades at 145x forward earnings.\nValue’s outperformance this year has only driven the price-to-earnings premium in the tech-heavy growth index back to 2-standard deviations above normal. We have a long way to go before the valuation gap normalizes.\nInterest rates: a (short-lived) opportunity for tech\nInterest rate movements have been the primary driver of relative performance between growth and value.\nDays when interest rates are rising, growth and technology struggle relative to value and cyclicals.  I believe it is likely that interest rates drift sideways to lower in the coming weeks, allowing oversold conditions in certain tech names to adjust.\nFirst, the interest rate differential between treasuries and many international government bonds is starting to attract foreign buyers to U.S. debt. European and Japanese buyers can earn an additional 1.2% by purchasing 10-year U.S. government debt versus 10-year bunds or JGBs, even after adjustments for currency risk.\nThis increased demand may serve to compress U.S. rates for a period. Additionally, sentiment has become extreme regarding U.S. treasury bonds — usually a good contra indicator. The percentage of bearish bond investors (betting rates will rise) is in the 90thpercentile, and the 6-month rate of change in the 10-year yield is in the 97thpercentile.\nA normalization of sentiment would be another headwind to rising rates in the near term. With several large tech names at technical support, and investment flows into technology (as measured by XLK) weak, we could be due for a near-term reversal in performance leadership as the momentum higher in interest rates wanes.\nHowever, it’s unlikely to last. As foreign economies begin to ramp up vaccination efforts and their economies more fully reopen, their interest rates should rise as those bond markets anticipate higher growth and inflation.\nThe interest rate gap should narrow, making U.S. debt relatively less attractive to foreign buyers – less demand, lower prices, higher rates for treasuries. Further, the Federal Reserve has yet to push back against rising long-term interest rates, and the10-year yielddoesn’t hit technical resistance until to the 2.0% to 2.25% range.\nTaken together, U.S. rates should resume higher as we move into the second half of the year, creating a persistent headwind for tech’s relative performance.\nIt’s not all bad\nIt is important to keep in mind that this is relative performance story … not one of technology crashing and burning. The stock market today remains remarkably broad, with 96% of the stocks in the S&P 500 above their 200-day moving averages. The last time we saw a reading this high was late-2009. And even thoughtechnologyhas lagged, 90% of tech stocks are in an uptrend.\nWe know from history that rates and stocks can rise together. Even rates and technology stocks can rise together (see 2013 as an example). However, in the game of relative investment performance, my view remains that tech continues to fall behind.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":348978709,"gmtCreate":1617885384301,"gmtModify":1704704344357,"author":{"id":"3570369418287680","authorId":"3570369418287680","name":"JohnL","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/20db2fa4f65cb04a8d837d400a1b5d7b","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3570369418287680","authorIdStr":"3570369418287680"},"htmlText":"For real?&nbsp;","listText":"For real?&nbsp;","text":"For real?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/348978709","repostId":1193572308,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193572308","pubTimestamp":1617843930,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193572308?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-08 09:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193572308","media":"cnbc","summary":"Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next ","content":"<div>\n<p>Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOp-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-08 09:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1193572308","content_text":"Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of relative dominance has come to an end.\" The tech sector as measured by theXLKETF went on to trail theS&P 500by about 6% over the next month, and growth trailed value by over 14% during that same period.\nThis is not meant to be a victory lap; far from it. A month of underperformance hardly meets the criteria for a loss of dominance. Further, the weakness of tech and growth stocks has started to reverse of late, clawing back about half of that initial underperformance.\nWith stocks likeApple,Facebook, andAmazontrading down to their 200-day moving averages, what's next? Is tech ready to make a comeback, or is this just a pause along the road of further underperformance? I believe it is the latter.\nThis isn't your grandfather's momentum\nIn recent years, technology stocks have been synonymous with momentum. Today, tech accounts for nearly 35% of the widely trackediShares Momentum ETF (MTUM). This is about to change.\nMTUM will rebalance during the last week of May, and the weighting to technology will likely be cut in half. Estimates forecast thatfinancials,consumer discretionary,andindustrialswill carry the largest weights, and with that, additional flows will likely be attracted to those sectors.\nThis simple reconstitution is yet another catalyst for further underperformance from technology. Those that want exposure to momentum, whether through a passive ETF or an actively managed strategy, will by rule be owning less tech and more value. In fact, given tech's heavy weighting in most indexes, every 1% rotation out of \"growth & defensive\" sectors is nearly a 3% increase into \"cyclical\" sectors.\nValuation difference: hardly a dent\nAlthough the tech sector’s underperformance in 2021 has been noteworthy, it hasn’t made a dent in the historically wide valuation difference between growth and value stocks.\nLet’s not forget that over the past 10-years, growth has outperformed value by an average of 7%per year. I think many investors still haven’t come to terms with the idea that value can outperform for an extended period.\nAs I wrote in February, “The problem is that current prices [for growth stocks] necessitate a level of future growth that will be very difficult to realize”.  I still believe this to be the case. For example,Zoomis down 43% from its all-time high, but the stock still trades at 84x next year’s earnings.Teslais similar, down 23% from its high, but still trades at 145x forward earnings.\nValue’s outperformance this year has only driven the price-to-earnings premium in the tech-heavy growth index back to 2-standard deviations above normal. We have a long way to go before the valuation gap normalizes.\nInterest rates: a (short-lived) opportunity for tech\nInterest rate movements have been the primary driver of relative performance between growth and value.\nDays when interest rates are rising, growth and technology struggle relative to value and cyclicals.  I believe it is likely that interest rates drift sideways to lower in the coming weeks, allowing oversold conditions in certain tech names to adjust.\nFirst, the interest rate differential between treasuries and many international government bonds is starting to attract foreign buyers to U.S. debt. European and Japanese buyers can earn an additional 1.2% by purchasing 10-year U.S. government debt versus 10-year bunds or JGBs, even after adjustments for currency risk.\nThis increased demand may serve to compress U.S. rates for a period. Additionally, sentiment has become extreme regarding U.S. treasury bonds — usually a good contra indicator. The percentage of bearish bond investors (betting rates will rise) is in the 90thpercentile, and the 6-month rate of change in the 10-year yield is in the 97thpercentile.\nA normalization of sentiment would be another headwind to rising rates in the near term. With several large tech names at technical support, and investment flows into technology (as measured by XLK) weak, we could be due for a near-term reversal in performance leadership as the momentum higher in interest rates wanes.\nHowever, it’s unlikely to last. As foreign economies begin to ramp up vaccination efforts and their economies more fully reopen, their interest rates should rise as those bond markets anticipate higher growth and inflation.\nThe interest rate gap should narrow, making U.S. debt relatively less attractive to foreign buyers – less demand, lower prices, higher rates for treasuries. Further, the Federal Reserve has yet to push back against rising long-term interest rates, and the10-year yielddoesn’t hit technical resistance until to the 2.0% to 2.25% range.\nTaken together, U.S. rates should resume higher as we move into the second half of the year, creating a persistent headwind for tech’s relative performance.\nIt’s not all bad\nIt is important to keep in mind that this is relative performance story … not one of technology crashing and burning. The stock market today remains remarkably broad, with 96% of the stocks in the S&P 500 above their 200-day moving averages. The last time we saw a reading this high was late-2009. And even thoughtechnologyhas lagged, 90% of tech stocks are in an uptrend.\nWe know from history that rates and stocks can rise together. Even rates and technology stocks can rise together (see 2013 as an example). However, in the game of relative investment performance, my view remains that tech continues to fall behind.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":348982475,"gmtCreate":1617880015997,"gmtModify":1704704281027,"author":{"id":"3580122097336374","authorId":"3580122097336374","name":"Xusheng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f40a31a144845adf717ac05d2dbae3b9","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3580122097336374","authorIdStr":"3580122097336374"},"htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/348982475","repostId":1193572308,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193572308","pubTimestamp":1617843930,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193572308?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-08 09:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193572308","media":"cnbc","summary":"Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next ","content":"<div>\n<p>Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOp-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-08 09:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1193572308","content_text":"Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of relative dominance has come to an end.\" The tech sector as measured by theXLKETF went on to trail theS&P 500by about 6% over the next month, and growth trailed value by over 14% during that same period.\nThis is not meant to be a victory lap; far from it. A month of underperformance hardly meets the criteria for a loss of dominance. Further, the weakness of tech and growth stocks has started to reverse of late, clawing back about half of that initial underperformance.\nWith stocks likeApple,Facebook, andAmazontrading down to their 200-day moving averages, what's next? Is tech ready to make a comeback, or is this just a pause along the road of further underperformance? I believe it is the latter.\nThis isn't your grandfather's momentum\nIn recent years, technology stocks have been synonymous with momentum. Today, tech accounts for nearly 35% of the widely trackediShares Momentum ETF (MTUM). This is about to change.\nMTUM will rebalance during the last week of May, and the weighting to technology will likely be cut in half. Estimates forecast thatfinancials,consumer discretionary,andindustrialswill carry the largest weights, and with that, additional flows will likely be attracted to those sectors.\nThis simple reconstitution is yet another catalyst for further underperformance from technology. Those that want exposure to momentum, whether through a passive ETF or an actively managed strategy, will by rule be owning less tech and more value. In fact, given tech's heavy weighting in most indexes, every 1% rotation out of \"growth & defensive\" sectors is nearly a 3% increase into \"cyclical\" sectors.\nValuation difference: hardly a dent\nAlthough the tech sector’s underperformance in 2021 has been noteworthy, it hasn’t made a dent in the historically wide valuation difference between growth and value stocks.\nLet’s not forget that over the past 10-years, growth has outperformed value by an average of 7%per year. I think many investors still haven’t come to terms with the idea that value can outperform for an extended period.\nAs I wrote in February, “The problem is that current prices [for growth stocks] necessitate a level of future growth that will be very difficult to realize”.  I still believe this to be the case. For example,Zoomis down 43% from its all-time high, but the stock still trades at 84x next year’s earnings.Teslais similar, down 23% from its high, but still trades at 145x forward earnings.\nValue’s outperformance this year has only driven the price-to-earnings premium in the tech-heavy growth index back to 2-standard deviations above normal. We have a long way to go before the valuation gap normalizes.\nInterest rates: a (short-lived) opportunity for tech\nInterest rate movements have been the primary driver of relative performance between growth and value.\nDays when interest rates are rising, growth and technology struggle relative to value and cyclicals.  I believe it is likely that interest rates drift sideways to lower in the coming weeks, allowing oversold conditions in certain tech names to adjust.\nFirst, the interest rate differential between treasuries and many international government bonds is starting to attract foreign buyers to U.S. debt. European and Japanese buyers can earn an additional 1.2% by purchasing 10-year U.S. government debt versus 10-year bunds or JGBs, even after adjustments for currency risk.\nThis increased demand may serve to compress U.S. rates for a period. Additionally, sentiment has become extreme regarding U.S. treasury bonds — usually a good contra indicator. The percentage of bearish bond investors (betting rates will rise) is in the 90thpercentile, and the 6-month rate of change in the 10-year yield is in the 97thpercentile.\nA normalization of sentiment would be another headwind to rising rates in the near term. With several large tech names at technical support, and investment flows into technology (as measured by XLK) weak, we could be due for a near-term reversal in performance leadership as the momentum higher in interest rates wanes.\nHowever, it’s unlikely to last. As foreign economies begin to ramp up vaccination efforts and their economies more fully reopen, their interest rates should rise as those bond markets anticipate higher growth and inflation.\nThe interest rate gap should narrow, making U.S. debt relatively less attractive to foreign buyers – less demand, lower prices, higher rates for treasuries. Further, the Federal Reserve has yet to push back against rising long-term interest rates, and the10-year yielddoesn’t hit technical resistance until to the 2.0% to 2.25% range.\nTaken together, U.S. rates should resume higher as we move into the second half of the year, creating a persistent headwind for tech’s relative performance.\nIt’s not all bad\nIt is important to keep in mind that this is relative performance story … not one of technology crashing and burning. The stock market today remains remarkably broad, with 96% of the stocks in the S&P 500 above their 200-day moving averages. The last time we saw a reading this high was late-2009. And even thoughtechnologyhas lagged, 90% of tech stocks are in an uptrend.\nWe know from history that rates and stocks can rise together. Even rates and technology stocks can rise together (see 2013 as an example). However, in the game of relative investment performance, my view remains that tech continues to fall behind.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":348980458,"gmtCreate":1617879475774,"gmtModify":1704704272404,"author":{"id":"3577609996403814","authorId":"3577609996403814","name":"yl13413","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577609996403814","authorIdStr":"3577609996403814"},"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/348980458","repostId":1193572308,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193572308","pubTimestamp":1617843930,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193572308?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-08 09:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193572308","media":"cnbc","summary":"Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next ","content":"<div>\n<p>Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOp-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-08 09:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1193572308","content_text":"Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of relative dominance has come to an end.\" The tech sector as measured by theXLKETF went on to trail theS&P 500by about 6% over the next month, and growth trailed value by over 14% during that same period.\nThis is not meant to be a victory lap; far from it. A month of underperformance hardly meets the criteria for a loss of dominance. Further, the weakness of tech and growth stocks has started to reverse of late, clawing back about half of that initial underperformance.\nWith stocks likeApple,Facebook, andAmazontrading down to their 200-day moving averages, what's next? Is tech ready to make a comeback, or is this just a pause along the road of further underperformance? I believe it is the latter.\nThis isn't your grandfather's momentum\nIn recent years, technology stocks have been synonymous with momentum. Today, tech accounts for nearly 35% of the widely trackediShares Momentum ETF (MTUM). This is about to change.\nMTUM will rebalance during the last week of May, and the weighting to technology will likely be cut in half. Estimates forecast thatfinancials,consumer discretionary,andindustrialswill carry the largest weights, and with that, additional flows will likely be attracted to those sectors.\nThis simple reconstitution is yet another catalyst for further underperformance from technology. Those that want exposure to momentum, whether through a passive ETF or an actively managed strategy, will by rule be owning less tech and more value. In fact, given tech's heavy weighting in most indexes, every 1% rotation out of \"growth & defensive\" sectors is nearly a 3% increase into \"cyclical\" sectors.\nValuation difference: hardly a dent\nAlthough the tech sector’s underperformance in 2021 has been noteworthy, it hasn’t made a dent in the historically wide valuation difference between growth and value stocks.\nLet’s not forget that over the past 10-years, growth has outperformed value by an average of 7%per year. I think many investors still haven’t come to terms with the idea that value can outperform for an extended period.\nAs I wrote in February, “The problem is that current prices [for growth stocks] necessitate a level of future growth that will be very difficult to realize”.  I still believe this to be the case. For example,Zoomis down 43% from its all-time high, but the stock still trades at 84x next year’s earnings.Teslais similar, down 23% from its high, but still trades at 145x forward earnings.\nValue’s outperformance this year has only driven the price-to-earnings premium in the tech-heavy growth index back to 2-standard deviations above normal. We have a long way to go before the valuation gap normalizes.\nInterest rates: a (short-lived) opportunity for tech\nInterest rate movements have been the primary driver of relative performance between growth and value.\nDays when interest rates are rising, growth and technology struggle relative to value and cyclicals.  I believe it is likely that interest rates drift sideways to lower in the coming weeks, allowing oversold conditions in certain tech names to adjust.\nFirst, the interest rate differential between treasuries and many international government bonds is starting to attract foreign buyers to U.S. debt. European and Japanese buyers can earn an additional 1.2% by purchasing 10-year U.S. government debt versus 10-year bunds or JGBs, even after adjustments for currency risk.\nThis increased demand may serve to compress U.S. rates for a period. Additionally, sentiment has become extreme regarding U.S. treasury bonds — usually a good contra indicator. The percentage of bearish bond investors (betting rates will rise) is in the 90thpercentile, and the 6-month rate of change in the 10-year yield is in the 97thpercentile.\nA normalization of sentiment would be another headwind to rising rates in the near term. With several large tech names at technical support, and investment flows into technology (as measured by XLK) weak, we could be due for a near-term reversal in performance leadership as the momentum higher in interest rates wanes.\nHowever, it’s unlikely to last. As foreign economies begin to ramp up vaccination efforts and their economies more fully reopen, their interest rates should rise as those bond markets anticipate higher growth and inflation.\nThe interest rate gap should narrow, making U.S. debt relatively less attractive to foreign buyers – less demand, lower prices, higher rates for treasuries. Further, the Federal Reserve has yet to push back against rising long-term interest rates, and the10-year yielddoesn’t hit technical resistance until to the 2.0% to 2.25% range.\nTaken together, U.S. rates should resume higher as we move into the second half of the year, creating a persistent headwind for tech’s relative performance.\nIt’s not all bad\nIt is important to keep in mind that this is relative performance story … not one of technology crashing and burning. The stock market today remains remarkably broad, with 96% of the stocks in the S&P 500 above their 200-day moving averages. The last time we saw a reading this high was late-2009. And even thoughtechnologyhas lagged, 90% of tech stocks are in an uptrend.\nWe know from history that rates and stocks can rise together. Even rates and technology stocks can rise together (see 2013 as an example). However, in the game of relative investment performance, my view remains that tech continues to fall behind.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":348905157,"gmtCreate":1617875800779,"gmtModify":1704704224515,"author":{"id":"3569805243820041","authorId":"3569805243820041","name":"mcwood","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/899c12565f32e74966bd8f5ceac09f7c","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a8758340a08196056f8bc1e54805193","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3569805243820041","authorIdStr":"3569805243820041"},"htmlText":"[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"[得意]&nbsp;","text":"[得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/348905157","repostId":1193572308,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193572308","pubTimestamp":1617843930,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193572308?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-08 09:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193572308","media":"cnbc","summary":"Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next ","content":"<div>\n<p>Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOp-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-08 09:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1193572308","content_text":"Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of relative dominance has come to an end.\" The tech sector as measured by theXLKETF went on to trail theS&P 500by about 6% over the next month, and growth trailed value by over 14% during that same period.\nThis is not meant to be a victory lap; far from it. A month of underperformance hardly meets the criteria for a loss of dominance. Further, the weakness of tech and growth stocks has started to reverse of late, clawing back about half of that initial underperformance.\nWith stocks likeApple,Facebook, andAmazontrading down to their 200-day moving averages, what's next? Is tech ready to make a comeback, or is this just a pause along the road of further underperformance? I believe it is the latter.\nThis isn't your grandfather's momentum\nIn recent years, technology stocks have been synonymous with momentum. Today, tech accounts for nearly 35% of the widely trackediShares Momentum ETF (MTUM). This is about to change.\nMTUM will rebalance during the last week of May, and the weighting to technology will likely be cut in half. Estimates forecast thatfinancials,consumer discretionary,andindustrialswill carry the largest weights, and with that, additional flows will likely be attracted to those sectors.\nThis simple reconstitution is yet another catalyst for further underperformance from technology. Those that want exposure to momentum, whether through a passive ETF or an actively managed strategy, will by rule be owning less tech and more value. In fact, given tech's heavy weighting in most indexes, every 1% rotation out of \"growth & defensive\" sectors is nearly a 3% increase into \"cyclical\" sectors.\nValuation difference: hardly a dent\nAlthough the tech sector’s underperformance in 2021 has been noteworthy, it hasn’t made a dent in the historically wide valuation difference between growth and value stocks.\nLet’s not forget that over the past 10-years, growth has outperformed value by an average of 7%per year. I think many investors still haven’t come to terms with the idea that value can outperform for an extended period.\nAs I wrote in February, “The problem is that current prices [for growth stocks] necessitate a level of future growth that will be very difficult to realize”.  I still believe this to be the case. For example,Zoomis down 43% from its all-time high, but the stock still trades at 84x next year’s earnings.Teslais similar, down 23% from its high, but still trades at 145x forward earnings.\nValue’s outperformance this year has only driven the price-to-earnings premium in the tech-heavy growth index back to 2-standard deviations above normal. We have a long way to go before the valuation gap normalizes.\nInterest rates: a (short-lived) opportunity for tech\nInterest rate movements have been the primary driver of relative performance between growth and value.\nDays when interest rates are rising, growth and technology struggle relative to value and cyclicals.  I believe it is likely that interest rates drift sideways to lower in the coming weeks, allowing oversold conditions in certain tech names to adjust.\nFirst, the interest rate differential between treasuries and many international government bonds is starting to attract foreign buyers to U.S. debt. European and Japanese buyers can earn an additional 1.2% by purchasing 10-year U.S. government debt versus 10-year bunds or JGBs, even after adjustments for currency risk.\nThis increased demand may serve to compress U.S. rates for a period. Additionally, sentiment has become extreme regarding U.S. treasury bonds — usually a good contra indicator. The percentage of bearish bond investors (betting rates will rise) is in the 90thpercentile, and the 6-month rate of change in the 10-year yield is in the 97thpercentile.\nA normalization of sentiment would be another headwind to rising rates in the near term. With several large tech names at technical support, and investment flows into technology (as measured by XLK) weak, we could be due for a near-term reversal in performance leadership as the momentum higher in interest rates wanes.\nHowever, it’s unlikely to last. As foreign economies begin to ramp up vaccination efforts and their economies more fully reopen, their interest rates should rise as those bond markets anticipate higher growth and inflation.\nThe interest rate gap should narrow, making U.S. debt relatively less attractive to foreign buyers – less demand, lower prices, higher rates for treasuries. Further, the Federal Reserve has yet to push back against rising long-term interest rates, and the10-year yielddoesn’t hit technical resistance until to the 2.0% to 2.25% range.\nTaken together, U.S. rates should resume higher as we move into the second half of the year, creating a persistent headwind for tech’s relative performance.\nIt’s not all bad\nIt is important to keep in mind that this is relative performance story … not one of technology crashing and burning. The stock market today remains remarkably broad, with 96% of the stocks in the S&P 500 above their 200-day moving averages. The last time we saw a reading this high was late-2009. And even thoughtechnologyhas lagged, 90% of tech stocks are in an uptrend.\nWe know from history that rates and stocks can rise together. Even rates and technology stocks can rise together (see 2013 as an example). However, in the game of relative investment performance, my view remains that tech continues to fall behind.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":348070042,"gmtCreate":1617874056886,"gmtModify":1704704200936,"author":{"id":"3572923586954779","authorId":"3572923586954779","name":"LimLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/217b03b0c4808fb537070ba4e8f9d83f","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3572923586954779","authorIdStr":"3572923586954779"},"htmlText":"Tech had become more and more closely linked to our daily lives. Growth potential is huge. But choose the strong tech companies, not those that are hyped up.","listText":"Tech had become more and more closely linked to our daily lives. Growth potential is huge. But choose the strong tech companies, not those that are hyped up.","text":"Tech had become more and more closely linked to our daily lives. Growth potential is huge. But choose the strong tech companies, not those that are hyped up.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/348070042","repostId":1193572308,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193572308","pubTimestamp":1617843930,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193572308?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-08 09:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193572308","media":"cnbc","summary":"Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next ","content":"<div>\n<p>Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOp-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-08 09:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1193572308","content_text":"Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of relative dominance has come to an end.\" The tech sector as measured by theXLKETF went on to trail theS&P 500by about 6% over the next month, and growth trailed value by over 14% during that same period.\nThis is not meant to be a victory lap; far from it. A month of underperformance hardly meets the criteria for a loss of dominance. Further, the weakness of tech and growth stocks has started to reverse of late, clawing back about half of that initial underperformance.\nWith stocks likeApple,Facebook, andAmazontrading down to their 200-day moving averages, what's next? Is tech ready to make a comeback, or is this just a pause along the road of further underperformance? I believe it is the latter.\nThis isn't your grandfather's momentum\nIn recent years, technology stocks have been synonymous with momentum. Today, tech accounts for nearly 35% of the widely trackediShares Momentum ETF (MTUM). This is about to change.\nMTUM will rebalance during the last week of May, and the weighting to technology will likely be cut in half. Estimates forecast thatfinancials,consumer discretionary,andindustrialswill carry the largest weights, and with that, additional flows will likely be attracted to those sectors.\nThis simple reconstitution is yet another catalyst for further underperformance from technology. Those that want exposure to momentum, whether through a passive ETF or an actively managed strategy, will by rule be owning less tech and more value. In fact, given tech's heavy weighting in most indexes, every 1% rotation out of \"growth & defensive\" sectors is nearly a 3% increase into \"cyclical\" sectors.\nValuation difference: hardly a dent\nAlthough the tech sector’s underperformance in 2021 has been noteworthy, it hasn’t made a dent in the historically wide valuation difference between growth and value stocks.\nLet’s not forget that over the past 10-years, growth has outperformed value by an average of 7%per year. I think many investors still haven’t come to terms with the idea that value can outperform for an extended period.\nAs I wrote in February, “The problem is that current prices [for growth stocks] necessitate a level of future growth that will be very difficult to realize”.  I still believe this to be the case. For example,Zoomis down 43% from its all-time high, but the stock still trades at 84x next year’s earnings.Teslais similar, down 23% from its high, but still trades at 145x forward earnings.\nValue’s outperformance this year has only driven the price-to-earnings premium in the tech-heavy growth index back to 2-standard deviations above normal. We have a long way to go before the valuation gap normalizes.\nInterest rates: a (short-lived) opportunity for tech\nInterest rate movements have been the primary driver of relative performance between growth and value.\nDays when interest rates are rising, growth and technology struggle relative to value and cyclicals.  I believe it is likely that interest rates drift sideways to lower in the coming weeks, allowing oversold conditions in certain tech names to adjust.\nFirst, the interest rate differential between treasuries and many international government bonds is starting to attract foreign buyers to U.S. debt. European and Japanese buyers can earn an additional 1.2% by purchasing 10-year U.S. government debt versus 10-year bunds or JGBs, even after adjustments for currency risk.\nThis increased demand may serve to compress U.S. rates for a period. Additionally, sentiment has become extreme regarding U.S. treasury bonds — usually a good contra indicator. The percentage of bearish bond investors (betting rates will rise) is in the 90thpercentile, and the 6-month rate of change in the 10-year yield is in the 97thpercentile.\nA normalization of sentiment would be another headwind to rising rates in the near term. With several large tech names at technical support, and investment flows into technology (as measured by XLK) weak, we could be due for a near-term reversal in performance leadership as the momentum higher in interest rates wanes.\nHowever, it’s unlikely to last. As foreign economies begin to ramp up vaccination efforts and their economies more fully reopen, their interest rates should rise as those bond markets anticipate higher growth and inflation.\nThe interest rate gap should narrow, making U.S. debt relatively less attractive to foreign buyers – less demand, lower prices, higher rates for treasuries. Further, the Federal Reserve has yet to push back against rising long-term interest rates, and the10-year yielddoesn’t hit technical resistance until to the 2.0% to 2.25% range.\nTaken together, U.S. rates should resume higher as we move into the second half of the year, creating a persistent headwind for tech’s relative performance.\nIt’s not all bad\nIt is important to keep in mind that this is relative performance story … not one of technology crashing and burning. The stock market today remains remarkably broad, with 96% of the stocks in the S&P 500 above their 200-day moving averages. The last time we saw a reading this high was late-2009. And even thoughtechnologyhas lagged, 90% of tech stocks are in an uptrend.\nWe know from history that rates and stocks can rise together. Even rates and technology stocks can rise together (see 2013 as an example). However, in the game of relative investment performance, my view remains that tech continues to fall behind.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":348045832,"gmtCreate":1617873676326,"gmtModify":1704704197355,"author":{"id":"3572164865015836","authorId":"3572164865015836","name":"dalechip","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1beb35444353e89cb61b9380d702266","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572164865015836","authorIdStr":"3572164865015836"},"htmlText":"Tiger 加油。Will support u as always&nbsp;[財迷]&nbsp;[財迷]&nbsp;","listText":"Tiger 加油。Will support u as always&nbsp;[財迷]&nbsp;[財迷]&nbsp;","text":"Tiger 加油。Will support u as always [財迷] [財迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/348045832","repostId":1193572308,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193572308","pubTimestamp":1617843930,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193572308?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-08 09:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193572308","media":"cnbc","summary":"Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next ","content":"<div>\n<p>Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOp-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-08 09:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1193572308","content_text":"Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of relative dominance has come to an end.\" The tech sector as measured by theXLKETF went on to trail theS&P 500by about 6% over the next month, and growth trailed value by over 14% during that same period.\nThis is not meant to be a victory lap; far from it. A month of underperformance hardly meets the criteria for a loss of dominance. Further, the weakness of tech and growth stocks has started to reverse of late, clawing back about half of that initial underperformance.\nWith stocks likeApple,Facebook, andAmazontrading down to their 200-day moving averages, what's next? Is tech ready to make a comeback, or is this just a pause along the road of further underperformance? I believe it is the latter.\nThis isn't your grandfather's momentum\nIn recent years, technology stocks have been synonymous with momentum. Today, tech accounts for nearly 35% of the widely trackediShares Momentum ETF (MTUM). This is about to change.\nMTUM will rebalance during the last week of May, and the weighting to technology will likely be cut in half. Estimates forecast thatfinancials,consumer discretionary,andindustrialswill carry the largest weights, and with that, additional flows will likely be attracted to those sectors.\nThis simple reconstitution is yet another catalyst for further underperformance from technology. Those that want exposure to momentum, whether through a passive ETF or an actively managed strategy, will by rule be owning less tech and more value. In fact, given tech's heavy weighting in most indexes, every 1% rotation out of \"growth & defensive\" sectors is nearly a 3% increase into \"cyclical\" sectors.\nValuation difference: hardly a dent\nAlthough the tech sector’s underperformance in 2021 has been noteworthy, it hasn’t made a dent in the historically wide valuation difference between growth and value stocks.\nLet’s not forget that over the past 10-years, growth has outperformed value by an average of 7%per year. I think many investors still haven’t come to terms with the idea that value can outperform for an extended period.\nAs I wrote in February, “The problem is that current prices [for growth stocks] necessitate a level of future growth that will be very difficult to realize”.  I still believe this to be the case. For example,Zoomis down 43% from its all-time high, but the stock still trades at 84x next year’s earnings.Teslais similar, down 23% from its high, but still trades at 145x forward earnings.\nValue’s outperformance this year has only driven the price-to-earnings premium in the tech-heavy growth index back to 2-standard deviations above normal. We have a long way to go before the valuation gap normalizes.\nInterest rates: a (short-lived) opportunity for tech\nInterest rate movements have been the primary driver of relative performance between growth and value.\nDays when interest rates are rising, growth and technology struggle relative to value and cyclicals.  I believe it is likely that interest rates drift sideways to lower in the coming weeks, allowing oversold conditions in certain tech names to adjust.\nFirst, the interest rate differential between treasuries and many international government bonds is starting to attract foreign buyers to U.S. debt. European and Japanese buyers can earn an additional 1.2% by purchasing 10-year U.S. government debt versus 10-year bunds or JGBs, even after adjustments for currency risk.\nThis increased demand may serve to compress U.S. rates for a period. Additionally, sentiment has become extreme regarding U.S. treasury bonds — usually a good contra indicator. The percentage of bearish bond investors (betting rates will rise) is in the 90thpercentile, and the 6-month rate of change in the 10-year yield is in the 97thpercentile.\nA normalization of sentiment would be another headwind to rising rates in the near term. With several large tech names at technical support, and investment flows into technology (as measured by XLK) weak, we could be due for a near-term reversal in performance leadership as the momentum higher in interest rates wanes.\nHowever, it’s unlikely to last. As foreign economies begin to ramp up vaccination efforts and their economies more fully reopen, their interest rates should rise as those bond markets anticipate higher growth and inflation.\nThe interest rate gap should narrow, making U.S. debt relatively less attractive to foreign buyers – less demand, lower prices, higher rates for treasuries. Further, the Federal Reserve has yet to push back against rising long-term interest rates, and the10-year yielddoesn’t hit technical resistance until to the 2.0% to 2.25% range.\nTaken together, U.S. rates should resume higher as we move into the second half of the year, creating a persistent headwind for tech’s relative performance.\nIt’s not all bad\nIt is important to keep in mind that this is relative performance story … not one of technology crashing and burning. The stock market today remains remarkably broad, with 96% of the stocks in the S&P 500 above their 200-day moving averages. The last time we saw a reading this high was late-2009. And even thoughtechnologyhas lagged, 90% of tech stocks are in an uptrend.\nWe know from history that rates and stocks can rise together. Even rates and technology stocks can rise together (see 2013 as an example). However, in the game of relative investment performance, my view remains that tech continues to fall behind.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":348049235,"gmtCreate":1617872752628,"gmtModify":1704704188983,"author":{"id":"3573788699963679","authorId":"3573788699963679","name":"RTHS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a67db1aa66a6dfb5a57beb47fd4119a","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3573788699963679","authorIdStr":"3573788699963679"},"htmlText":"Technology will continue to distrup our lives,Like it or not. Tech stock may take a step back but long term bullish. 5G and even 6G is near future&nbsp;","listText":"Technology will continue to distrup our lives,Like it or not. Tech stock may take a step back but long term bullish. 5G and even 6G is near future&nbsp;","text":"Technology will continue to distrup our lives,Like it or not. Tech stock may take a step back but long term bullish. 5G and even 6G is near future","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/348049235","repostId":1193572308,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193572308","pubTimestamp":1617843930,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193572308?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-08 09:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193572308","media":"cnbc","summary":"Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next ","content":"<div>\n<p>Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOp-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-08 09:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1193572308","content_text":"Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of relative dominance has come to an end.\" The tech sector as measured by theXLKETF went on to trail theS&P 500by about 6% over the next month, and growth trailed value by over 14% during that same period.\nThis is not meant to be a victory lap; far from it. A month of underperformance hardly meets the criteria for a loss of dominance. Further, the weakness of tech and growth stocks has started to reverse of late, clawing back about half of that initial underperformance.\nWith stocks likeApple,Facebook, andAmazontrading down to their 200-day moving averages, what's next? Is tech ready to make a comeback, or is this just a pause along the road of further underperformance? I believe it is the latter.\nThis isn't your grandfather's momentum\nIn recent years, technology stocks have been synonymous with momentum. Today, tech accounts for nearly 35% of the widely trackediShares Momentum ETF (MTUM). This is about to change.\nMTUM will rebalance during the last week of May, and the weighting to technology will likely be cut in half. Estimates forecast thatfinancials,consumer discretionary,andindustrialswill carry the largest weights, and with that, additional flows will likely be attracted to those sectors.\nThis simple reconstitution is yet another catalyst for further underperformance from technology. Those that want exposure to momentum, whether through a passive ETF or an actively managed strategy, will by rule be owning less tech and more value. In fact, given tech's heavy weighting in most indexes, every 1% rotation out of \"growth & defensive\" sectors is nearly a 3% increase into \"cyclical\" sectors.\nValuation difference: hardly a dent\nAlthough the tech sector’s underperformance in 2021 has been noteworthy, it hasn’t made a dent in the historically wide valuation difference between growth and value stocks.\nLet’s not forget that over the past 10-years, growth has outperformed value by an average of 7%per year. I think many investors still haven’t come to terms with the idea that value can outperform for an extended period.\nAs I wrote in February, “The problem is that current prices [for growth stocks] necessitate a level of future growth that will be very difficult to realize”.  I still believe this to be the case. For example,Zoomis down 43% from its all-time high, but the stock still trades at 84x next year’s earnings.Teslais similar, down 23% from its high, but still trades at 145x forward earnings.\nValue’s outperformance this year has only driven the price-to-earnings premium in the tech-heavy growth index back to 2-standard deviations above normal. We have a long way to go before the valuation gap normalizes.\nInterest rates: a (short-lived) opportunity for tech\nInterest rate movements have been the primary driver of relative performance between growth and value.\nDays when interest rates are rising, growth and technology struggle relative to value and cyclicals.  I believe it is likely that interest rates drift sideways to lower in the coming weeks, allowing oversold conditions in certain tech names to adjust.\nFirst, the interest rate differential between treasuries and many international government bonds is starting to attract foreign buyers to U.S. debt. European and Japanese buyers can earn an additional 1.2% by purchasing 10-year U.S. government debt versus 10-year bunds or JGBs, even after adjustments for currency risk.\nThis increased demand may serve to compress U.S. rates for a period. Additionally, sentiment has become extreme regarding U.S. treasury bonds — usually a good contra indicator. The percentage of bearish bond investors (betting rates will rise) is in the 90thpercentile, and the 6-month rate of change in the 10-year yield is in the 97thpercentile.\nA normalization of sentiment would be another headwind to rising rates in the near term. With several large tech names at technical support, and investment flows into technology (as measured by XLK) weak, we could be due for a near-term reversal in performance leadership as the momentum higher in interest rates wanes.\nHowever, it’s unlikely to last. As foreign economies begin to ramp up vaccination efforts and their economies more fully reopen, their interest rates should rise as those bond markets anticipate higher growth and inflation.\nThe interest rate gap should narrow, making U.S. debt relatively less attractive to foreign buyers – less demand, lower prices, higher rates for treasuries. Further, the Federal Reserve has yet to push back against rising long-term interest rates, and the10-year yielddoesn’t hit technical resistance until to the 2.0% to 2.25% range.\nTaken together, U.S. rates should resume higher as we move into the second half of the year, creating a persistent headwind for tech’s relative performance.\nIt’s not all bad\nIt is important to keep in mind that this is relative performance story … not one of technology crashing and burning. The stock market today remains remarkably broad, with 96% of the stocks in the S&P 500 above their 200-day moving averages. The last time we saw a reading this high was late-2009. And even thoughtechnologyhas lagged, 90% of tech stocks are in an uptrend.\nWe know from history that rates and stocks can rise together. Even rates and technology stocks can rise together (see 2013 as an example). However, in the game of relative investment performance, my view remains that tech continues to fall behind.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":348025820,"gmtCreate":1617870999160,"gmtModify":1704704170165,"author":{"id":"3574029017802033","authorId":"3574029017802033","name":"kuehlapis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/732ffeea71fc0732b84f029cc0e8263e","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574029017802033","authorIdStr":"3574029017802033"},"htmlText":"the future is tech","listText":"the future is tech","text":"the future is tech","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/348025820","repostId":1193572308,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193572308","pubTimestamp":1617843930,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193572308?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-08 09:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193572308","media":"cnbc","summary":"Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next ","content":"<div>\n<p>Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOp-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-08 09:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1193572308","content_text":"Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of relative dominance has come to an end.\" The tech sector as measured by theXLKETF went on to trail theS&P 500by about 6% over the next month, and growth trailed value by over 14% during that same period.\nThis is not meant to be a victory lap; far from it. A month of underperformance hardly meets the criteria for a loss of dominance. Further, the weakness of tech and growth stocks has started to reverse of late, clawing back about half of that initial underperformance.\nWith stocks likeApple,Facebook, andAmazontrading down to their 200-day moving averages, what's next? Is tech ready to make a comeback, or is this just a pause along the road of further underperformance? I believe it is the latter.\nThis isn't your grandfather's momentum\nIn recent years, technology stocks have been synonymous with momentum. Today, tech accounts for nearly 35% of the widely trackediShares Momentum ETF (MTUM). This is about to change.\nMTUM will rebalance during the last week of May, and the weighting to technology will likely be cut in half. Estimates forecast thatfinancials,consumer discretionary,andindustrialswill carry the largest weights, and with that, additional flows will likely be attracted to those sectors.\nThis simple reconstitution is yet another catalyst for further underperformance from technology. Those that want exposure to momentum, whether through a passive ETF or an actively managed strategy, will by rule be owning less tech and more value. In fact, given tech's heavy weighting in most indexes, every 1% rotation out of \"growth & defensive\" sectors is nearly a 3% increase into \"cyclical\" sectors.\nValuation difference: hardly a dent\nAlthough the tech sector’s underperformance in 2021 has been noteworthy, it hasn’t made a dent in the historically wide valuation difference between growth and value stocks.\nLet’s not forget that over the past 10-years, growth has outperformed value by an average of 7%per year. I think many investors still haven’t come to terms with the idea that value can outperform for an extended period.\nAs I wrote in February, “The problem is that current prices [for growth stocks] necessitate a level of future growth that will be very difficult to realize”.  I still believe this to be the case. For example,Zoomis down 43% from its all-time high, but the stock still trades at 84x next year’s earnings.Teslais similar, down 23% from its high, but still trades at 145x forward earnings.\nValue’s outperformance this year has only driven the price-to-earnings premium in the tech-heavy growth index back to 2-standard deviations above normal. We have a long way to go before the valuation gap normalizes.\nInterest rates: a (short-lived) opportunity for tech\nInterest rate movements have been the primary driver of relative performance between growth and value.\nDays when interest rates are rising, growth and technology struggle relative to value and cyclicals.  I believe it is likely that interest rates drift sideways to lower in the coming weeks, allowing oversold conditions in certain tech names to adjust.\nFirst, the interest rate differential between treasuries and many international government bonds is starting to attract foreign buyers to U.S. debt. European and Japanese buyers can earn an additional 1.2% by purchasing 10-year U.S. government debt versus 10-year bunds or JGBs, even after adjustments for currency risk.\nThis increased demand may serve to compress U.S. rates for a period. Additionally, sentiment has become extreme regarding U.S. treasury bonds — usually a good contra indicator. The percentage of bearish bond investors (betting rates will rise) is in the 90thpercentile, and the 6-month rate of change in the 10-year yield is in the 97thpercentile.\nA normalization of sentiment would be another headwind to rising rates in the near term. With several large tech names at technical support, and investment flows into technology (as measured by XLK) weak, we could be due for a near-term reversal in performance leadership as the momentum higher in interest rates wanes.\nHowever, it’s unlikely to last. As foreign economies begin to ramp up vaccination efforts and their economies more fully reopen, their interest rates should rise as those bond markets anticipate higher growth and inflation.\nThe interest rate gap should narrow, making U.S. debt relatively less attractive to foreign buyers – less demand, lower prices, higher rates for treasuries. Further, the Federal Reserve has yet to push back against rising long-term interest rates, and the10-year yielddoesn’t hit technical resistance until to the 2.0% to 2.25% range.\nTaken together, U.S. rates should resume higher as we move into the second half of the year, creating a persistent headwind for tech’s relative performance.\nIt’s not all bad\nIt is important to keep in mind that this is relative performance story … not one of technology crashing and burning. The stock market today remains remarkably broad, with 96% of the stocks in the S&P 500 above their 200-day moving averages. The last time we saw a reading this high was late-2009. And even thoughtechnologyhas lagged, 90% of tech stocks are in an uptrend.\nWe know from history that rates and stocks can rise together. Even rates and technology stocks can rise together (see 2013 as an example). However, in the game of relative investment performance, my view remains that tech continues to fall behind.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":348021658,"gmtCreate":1617870676174,"gmtModify":1704704165311,"author":{"id":"3578061345924822","authorId":"3578061345924822","name":"Jeremyyeojc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96261aa62716a70270967e52a5bcdd13","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3578061345924822","authorIdStr":"3578061345924822"},"htmlText":"Is this fake news so we sell and they buy up?&nbsp;","listText":"Is this fake news so we sell and they buy up?&nbsp;","text":"Is this fake news so we sell and they buy up?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/348021658","repostId":1193572308,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193572308","pubTimestamp":1617843930,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193572308?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-08 09:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193572308","media":"cnbc","summary":"Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next ","content":"<div>\n<p>Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOp-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-08 09:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1193572308","content_text":"Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of relative dominance has come to an end.\" The tech sector as measured by theXLKETF went on to trail theS&P 500by about 6% over the next month, and growth trailed value by over 14% during that same period.\nThis is not meant to be a victory lap; far from it. A month of underperformance hardly meets the criteria for a loss of dominance. Further, the weakness of tech and growth stocks has started to reverse of late, clawing back about half of that initial underperformance.\nWith stocks likeApple,Facebook, andAmazontrading down to their 200-day moving averages, what's next? Is tech ready to make a comeback, or is this just a pause along the road of further underperformance? I believe it is the latter.\nThis isn't your grandfather's momentum\nIn recent years, technology stocks have been synonymous with momentum. Today, tech accounts for nearly 35% of the widely trackediShares Momentum ETF (MTUM). This is about to change.\nMTUM will rebalance during the last week of May, and the weighting to technology will likely be cut in half. Estimates forecast thatfinancials,consumer discretionary,andindustrialswill carry the largest weights, and with that, additional flows will likely be attracted to those sectors.\nThis simple reconstitution is yet another catalyst for further underperformance from technology. Those that want exposure to momentum, whether through a passive ETF or an actively managed strategy, will by rule be owning less tech and more value. In fact, given tech's heavy weighting in most indexes, every 1% rotation out of \"growth & defensive\" sectors is nearly a 3% increase into \"cyclical\" sectors.\nValuation difference: hardly a dent\nAlthough the tech sector’s underperformance in 2021 has been noteworthy, it hasn’t made a dent in the historically wide valuation difference between growth and value stocks.\nLet’s not forget that over the past 10-years, growth has outperformed value by an average of 7%per year. I think many investors still haven’t come to terms with the idea that value can outperform for an extended period.\nAs I wrote in February, “The problem is that current prices [for growth stocks] necessitate a level of future growth that will be very difficult to realize”.  I still believe this to be the case. For example,Zoomis down 43% from its all-time high, but the stock still trades at 84x next year’s earnings.Teslais similar, down 23% from its high, but still trades at 145x forward earnings.\nValue’s outperformance this year has only driven the price-to-earnings premium in the tech-heavy growth index back to 2-standard deviations above normal. We have a long way to go before the valuation gap normalizes.\nInterest rates: a (short-lived) opportunity for tech\nInterest rate movements have been the primary driver of relative performance between growth and value.\nDays when interest rates are rising, growth and technology struggle relative to value and cyclicals.  I believe it is likely that interest rates drift sideways to lower in the coming weeks, allowing oversold conditions in certain tech names to adjust.\nFirst, the interest rate differential between treasuries and many international government bonds is starting to attract foreign buyers to U.S. debt. European and Japanese buyers can earn an additional 1.2% by purchasing 10-year U.S. government debt versus 10-year bunds or JGBs, even after adjustments for currency risk.\nThis increased demand may serve to compress U.S. rates for a period. Additionally, sentiment has become extreme regarding U.S. treasury bonds — usually a good contra indicator. The percentage of bearish bond investors (betting rates will rise) is in the 90thpercentile, and the 6-month rate of change in the 10-year yield is in the 97thpercentile.\nA normalization of sentiment would be another headwind to rising rates in the near term. With several large tech names at technical support, and investment flows into technology (as measured by XLK) weak, we could be due for a near-term reversal in performance leadership as the momentum higher in interest rates wanes.\nHowever, it’s unlikely to last. As foreign economies begin to ramp up vaccination efforts and their economies more fully reopen, their interest rates should rise as those bond markets anticipate higher growth and inflation.\nThe interest rate gap should narrow, making U.S. debt relatively less attractive to foreign buyers – less demand, lower prices, higher rates for treasuries. Further, the Federal Reserve has yet to push back against rising long-term interest rates, and the10-year yielddoesn’t hit technical resistance until to the 2.0% to 2.25% range.\nTaken together, U.S. rates should resume higher as we move into the second half of the year, creating a persistent headwind for tech’s relative performance.\nIt’s not all bad\nIt is important to keep in mind that this is relative performance story … not one of technology crashing and burning. The stock market today remains remarkably broad, with 96% of the stocks in the S&P 500 above their 200-day moving averages. The last time we saw a reading this high was late-2009. And even thoughtechnologyhas lagged, 90% of tech stocks are in an uptrend.\nWe know from history that rates and stocks can rise together. Even rates and technology stocks can rise together (see 2013 as an example). However, in the game of relative investment performance, my view remains that tech continues to fall behind.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":348010411,"gmtCreate":1617867150333,"gmtModify":1704704123174,"author":{"id":"3578439260866475","authorId":"3578439260866475","name":"VickJW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc8189137ac06a254539a020b5b368b2","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3578439260866475","authorIdStr":"3578439260866475"},"htmlText":"Like and comment please[開心]&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment please[開心]&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment please[開心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/348010411","repostId":1193572308,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193572308","pubTimestamp":1617843930,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193572308?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-08 09:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193572308","media":"cnbc","summary":"Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next ","content":"<div>\n<p>Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOp-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-08 09:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1193572308","content_text":"Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of relative dominance has come to an end.\" The tech sector as measured by theXLKETF went on to trail theS&P 500by about 6% over the next month, and growth trailed value by over 14% during that same period.\nThis is not meant to be a victory lap; far from it. A month of underperformance hardly meets the criteria for a loss of dominance. Further, the weakness of tech and growth stocks has started to reverse of late, clawing back about half of that initial underperformance.\nWith stocks likeApple,Facebook, andAmazontrading down to their 200-day moving averages, what's next? Is tech ready to make a comeback, or is this just a pause along the road of further underperformance? I believe it is the latter.\nThis isn't your grandfather's momentum\nIn recent years, technology stocks have been synonymous with momentum. Today, tech accounts for nearly 35% of the widely trackediShares Momentum ETF (MTUM). This is about to change.\nMTUM will rebalance during the last week of May, and the weighting to technology will likely be cut in half. Estimates forecast thatfinancials,consumer discretionary,andindustrialswill carry the largest weights, and with that, additional flows will likely be attracted to those sectors.\nThis simple reconstitution is yet another catalyst for further underperformance from technology. Those that want exposure to momentum, whether through a passive ETF or an actively managed strategy, will by rule be owning less tech and more value. In fact, given tech's heavy weighting in most indexes, every 1% rotation out of \"growth & defensive\" sectors is nearly a 3% increase into \"cyclical\" sectors.\nValuation difference: hardly a dent\nAlthough the tech sector’s underperformance in 2021 has been noteworthy, it hasn’t made a dent in the historically wide valuation difference between growth and value stocks.\nLet’s not forget that over the past 10-years, growth has outperformed value by an average of 7%per year. I think many investors still haven’t come to terms with the idea that value can outperform for an extended period.\nAs I wrote in February, “The problem is that current prices [for growth stocks] necessitate a level of future growth that will be very difficult to realize”.  I still believe this to be the case. For example,Zoomis down 43% from its all-time high, but the stock still trades at 84x next year’s earnings.Teslais similar, down 23% from its high, but still trades at 145x forward earnings.\nValue’s outperformance this year has only driven the price-to-earnings premium in the tech-heavy growth index back to 2-standard deviations above normal. We have a long way to go before the valuation gap normalizes.\nInterest rates: a (short-lived) opportunity for tech\nInterest rate movements have been the primary driver of relative performance between growth and value.\nDays when interest rates are rising, growth and technology struggle relative to value and cyclicals.  I believe it is likely that interest rates drift sideways to lower in the coming weeks, allowing oversold conditions in certain tech names to adjust.\nFirst, the interest rate differential between treasuries and many international government bonds is starting to attract foreign buyers to U.S. debt. European and Japanese buyers can earn an additional 1.2% by purchasing 10-year U.S. government debt versus 10-year bunds or JGBs, even after adjustments for currency risk.\nThis increased demand may serve to compress U.S. rates for a period. Additionally, sentiment has become extreme regarding U.S. treasury bonds — usually a good contra indicator. The percentage of bearish bond investors (betting rates will rise) is in the 90thpercentile, and the 6-month rate of change in the 10-year yield is in the 97thpercentile.\nA normalization of sentiment would be another headwind to rising rates in the near term. With several large tech names at technical support, and investment flows into technology (as measured by XLK) weak, we could be due for a near-term reversal in performance leadership as the momentum higher in interest rates wanes.\nHowever, it’s unlikely to last. As foreign economies begin to ramp up vaccination efforts and their economies more fully reopen, their interest rates should rise as those bond markets anticipate higher growth and inflation.\nThe interest rate gap should narrow, making U.S. debt relatively less attractive to foreign buyers – less demand, lower prices, higher rates for treasuries. Further, the Federal Reserve has yet to push back against rising long-term interest rates, and the10-year yielddoesn’t hit technical resistance until to the 2.0% to 2.25% range.\nTaken together, U.S. rates should resume higher as we move into the second half of the year, creating a persistent headwind for tech’s relative performance.\nIt’s not all bad\nIt is important to keep in mind that this is relative performance story … not one of technology crashing and burning. The stock market today remains remarkably broad, with 96% of the stocks in the S&P 500 above their 200-day moving averages. The last time we saw a reading this high was late-2009. And even thoughtechnologyhas lagged, 90% of tech stocks are in an uptrend.\nWe know from history that rates and stocks can rise together. Even rates and technology stocks can rise together (see 2013 as an example). However, in the game of relative investment performance, my view remains that tech continues to fall behind.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":348005130,"gmtCreate":1617863738520,"gmtModify":1704704091504,"author":{"id":"3569301571685332","authorId":"3569301571685332","name":"ahswee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df9d1562760402e99c23de8c7a82773","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3569301571685332","authorIdStr":"3569301571685332"},"htmlText":"Tech is here to stay for the long ride. It'll just be another speed bump along the road to the moon!","listText":"Tech is here to stay for the long ride. It'll just be another speed bump along the road to the moon!","text":"Tech is here to stay for the long ride. It'll just be another speed bump along the road to the moon!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/348005130","repostId":1193572308,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193572308","pubTimestamp":1617843930,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193572308?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-08 09:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193572308","media":"cnbc","summary":"Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next ","content":"<div>\n<p>Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOp-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-08 09:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1193572308","content_text":"Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of relative dominance has come to an end.\" The tech sector as measured by theXLKETF went on to trail theS&P 500by about 6% over the next month, and growth trailed value by over 14% during that same period.\nThis is not meant to be a victory lap; far from it. A month of underperformance hardly meets the criteria for a loss of dominance. Further, the weakness of tech and growth stocks has started to reverse of late, clawing back about half of that initial underperformance.\nWith stocks likeApple,Facebook, andAmazontrading down to their 200-day moving averages, what's next? Is tech ready to make a comeback, or is this just a pause along the road of further underperformance? I believe it is the latter.\nThis isn't your grandfather's momentum\nIn recent years, technology stocks have been synonymous with momentum. Today, tech accounts for nearly 35% of the widely trackediShares Momentum ETF (MTUM). This is about to change.\nMTUM will rebalance during the last week of May, and the weighting to technology will likely be cut in half. Estimates forecast thatfinancials,consumer discretionary,andindustrialswill carry the largest weights, and with that, additional flows will likely be attracted to those sectors.\nThis simple reconstitution is yet another catalyst for further underperformance from technology. Those that want exposure to momentum, whether through a passive ETF or an actively managed strategy, will by rule be owning less tech and more value. In fact, given tech's heavy weighting in most indexes, every 1% rotation out of \"growth & defensive\" sectors is nearly a 3% increase into \"cyclical\" sectors.\nValuation difference: hardly a dent\nAlthough the tech sector’s underperformance in 2021 has been noteworthy, it hasn’t made a dent in the historically wide valuation difference between growth and value stocks.\nLet’s not forget that over the past 10-years, growth has outperformed value by an average of 7%per year. I think many investors still haven’t come to terms with the idea that value can outperform for an extended period.\nAs I wrote in February, “The problem is that current prices [for growth stocks] necessitate a level of future growth that will be very difficult to realize”.  I still believe this to be the case. For example,Zoomis down 43% from its all-time high, but the stock still trades at 84x next year’s earnings.Teslais similar, down 23% from its high, but still trades at 145x forward earnings.\nValue’s outperformance this year has only driven the price-to-earnings premium in the tech-heavy growth index back to 2-standard deviations above normal. We have a long way to go before the valuation gap normalizes.\nInterest rates: a (short-lived) opportunity for tech\nInterest rate movements have been the primary driver of relative performance between growth and value.\nDays when interest rates are rising, growth and technology struggle relative to value and cyclicals.  I believe it is likely that interest rates drift sideways to lower in the coming weeks, allowing oversold conditions in certain tech names to adjust.\nFirst, the interest rate differential between treasuries and many international government bonds is starting to attract foreign buyers to U.S. debt. European and Japanese buyers can earn an additional 1.2% by purchasing 10-year U.S. government debt versus 10-year bunds or JGBs, even after adjustments for currency risk.\nThis increased demand may serve to compress U.S. rates for a period. Additionally, sentiment has become extreme regarding U.S. treasury bonds — usually a good contra indicator. The percentage of bearish bond investors (betting rates will rise) is in the 90thpercentile, and the 6-month rate of change in the 10-year yield is in the 97thpercentile.\nA normalization of sentiment would be another headwind to rising rates in the near term. With several large tech names at technical support, and investment flows into technology (as measured by XLK) weak, we could be due for a near-term reversal in performance leadership as the momentum higher in interest rates wanes.\nHowever, it’s unlikely to last. As foreign economies begin to ramp up vaccination efforts and their economies more fully reopen, their interest rates should rise as those bond markets anticipate higher growth and inflation.\nThe interest rate gap should narrow, making U.S. debt relatively less attractive to foreign buyers – less demand, lower prices, higher rates for treasuries. Further, the Federal Reserve has yet to push back against rising long-term interest rates, and the10-year yielddoesn’t hit technical resistance until to the 2.0% to 2.25% range.\nTaken together, U.S. rates should resume higher as we move into the second half of the year, creating a persistent headwind for tech’s relative performance.\nIt’s not all bad\nIt is important to keep in mind that this is relative performance story … not one of technology crashing and burning. The stock market today remains remarkably broad, with 96% of the stocks in the S&P 500 above their 200-day moving averages. The last time we saw a reading this high was late-2009. And even thoughtechnologyhas lagged, 90% of tech stocks are in an uptrend.\nWe know from history that rates and stocks can rise together. Even rates and technology stocks can rise together (see 2013 as an example). However, in the game of relative investment performance, my view remains that tech continues to fall behind.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":341745699,"gmtCreate":1617861308811,"gmtModify":1704704064821,"author":{"id":"3579253238684353","authorId":"3579253238684353","name":"computers80","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e43a3c84885b9d5e8a51ea009efa7cf0","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3579253238684353","authorIdStr":"3579253238684353"},"htmlText":"Good article","listText":"Good article","text":"Good article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/341745699","repostId":1193572308,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193572308","pubTimestamp":1617843930,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193572308?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-08 09:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193572308","media":"cnbc","summary":"Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next ","content":"<div>\n<p>Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOp-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-08 09:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1193572308","content_text":"Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of relative dominance has come to an end.\" The tech sector as measured by theXLKETF went on to trail theS&P 500by about 6% over the next month, and growth trailed value by over 14% during that same period.\nThis is not meant to be a victory lap; far from it. A month of underperformance hardly meets the criteria for a loss of dominance. Further, the weakness of tech and growth stocks has started to reverse of late, clawing back about half of that initial underperformance.\nWith stocks likeApple,Facebook, andAmazontrading down to their 200-day moving averages, what's next? Is tech ready to make a comeback, or is this just a pause along the road of further underperformance? I believe it is the latter.\nThis isn't your grandfather's momentum\nIn recent years, technology stocks have been synonymous with momentum. Today, tech accounts for nearly 35% of the widely trackediShares Momentum ETF (MTUM). This is about to change.\nMTUM will rebalance during the last week of May, and the weighting to technology will likely be cut in half. Estimates forecast thatfinancials,consumer discretionary,andindustrialswill carry the largest weights, and with that, additional flows will likely be attracted to those sectors.\nThis simple reconstitution is yet another catalyst for further underperformance from technology. Those that want exposure to momentum, whether through a passive ETF or an actively managed strategy, will by rule be owning less tech and more value. In fact, given tech's heavy weighting in most indexes, every 1% rotation out of \"growth & defensive\" sectors is nearly a 3% increase into \"cyclical\" sectors.\nValuation difference: hardly a dent\nAlthough the tech sector’s underperformance in 2021 has been noteworthy, it hasn’t made a dent in the historically wide valuation difference between growth and value stocks.\nLet’s not forget that over the past 10-years, growth has outperformed value by an average of 7%per year. I think many investors still haven’t come to terms with the idea that value can outperform for an extended period.\nAs I wrote in February, “The problem is that current prices [for growth stocks] necessitate a level of future growth that will be very difficult to realize”.  I still believe this to be the case. For example,Zoomis down 43% from its all-time high, but the stock still trades at 84x next year’s earnings.Teslais similar, down 23% from its high, but still trades at 145x forward earnings.\nValue’s outperformance this year has only driven the price-to-earnings premium in the tech-heavy growth index back to 2-standard deviations above normal. We have a long way to go before the valuation gap normalizes.\nInterest rates: a (short-lived) opportunity for tech\nInterest rate movements have been the primary driver of relative performance between growth and value.\nDays when interest rates are rising, growth and technology struggle relative to value and cyclicals.  I believe it is likely that interest rates drift sideways to lower in the coming weeks, allowing oversold conditions in certain tech names to adjust.\nFirst, the interest rate differential between treasuries and many international government bonds is starting to attract foreign buyers to U.S. debt. European and Japanese buyers can earn an additional 1.2% by purchasing 10-year U.S. government debt versus 10-year bunds or JGBs, even after adjustments for currency risk.\nThis increased demand may serve to compress U.S. rates for a period. Additionally, sentiment has become extreme regarding U.S. treasury bonds — usually a good contra indicator. The percentage of bearish bond investors (betting rates will rise) is in the 90thpercentile, and the 6-month rate of change in the 10-year yield is in the 97thpercentile.\nA normalization of sentiment would be another headwind to rising rates in the near term. With several large tech names at technical support, and investment flows into technology (as measured by XLK) weak, we could be due for a near-term reversal in performance leadership as the momentum higher in interest rates wanes.\nHowever, it’s unlikely to last. As foreign economies begin to ramp up vaccination efforts and their economies more fully reopen, their interest rates should rise as those bond markets anticipate higher growth and inflation.\nThe interest rate gap should narrow, making U.S. debt relatively less attractive to foreign buyers – less demand, lower prices, higher rates for treasuries. Further, the Federal Reserve has yet to push back against rising long-term interest rates, and the10-year yielddoesn’t hit technical resistance until to the 2.0% to 2.25% range.\nTaken together, U.S. rates should resume higher as we move into the second half of the year, creating a persistent headwind for tech’s relative performance.\nIt’s not all bad\nIt is important to keep in mind that this is relative performance story … not one of technology crashing and burning. The stock market today remains remarkably broad, with 96% of the stocks in the S&P 500 above their 200-day moving averages. The last time we saw a reading this high was late-2009. And even thoughtechnologyhas lagged, 90% of tech stocks are in an uptrend.\nWe know from history that rates and stocks can rise together. Even rates and technology stocks can rise together (see 2013 as an example). However, in the game of relative investment performance, my view remains that tech continues to fall behind.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":341767146,"gmtCreate":1617857589285,"gmtModify":1704704024713,"author":{"id":"3574484198588936","authorId":"3574484198588936","name":"Eaglewings","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/532f4e45cb093f21d9a38905184a4bb9","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574484198588936","authorIdStr":"3574484198588936"},"htmlText":"I think we should consider moving away from dividing companies into growth, value etc.Companies exist and play a role in our societies and life for a reason. Why must we call them “tech” stocks when the world and all sectors are going through a digital evolution over time!&nbsp;","listText":"I think we should consider moving away from dividing companies into growth, value etc.Companies exist and play a role in our societies and life for a reason. Why must we call them “tech” stocks when the world and all sectors are going through a digital evolution over time!&nbsp;","text":"I think we should consider moving away from dividing companies into growth, value etc.Companies exist and play a role in our societies and life for a reason. Why must we call them “tech” stocks when the world and all sectors are going through a digital evolution over time!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/341767146","repostId":1193572308,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193572308","pubTimestamp":1617843930,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193572308?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-08 09:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193572308","media":"cnbc","summary":"Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next ","content":"<div>\n<p>Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOp-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-08 09:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1193572308","content_text":"Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of relative dominance has come to an end.\" The tech sector as measured by theXLKETF went on to trail theS&P 500by about 6% over the next month, and growth trailed value by over 14% during that same period.\nThis is not meant to be a victory lap; far from it. A month of underperformance hardly meets the criteria for a loss of dominance. Further, the weakness of tech and growth stocks has started to reverse of late, clawing back about half of that initial underperformance.\nWith stocks likeApple,Facebook, andAmazontrading down to their 200-day moving averages, what's next? Is tech ready to make a comeback, or is this just a pause along the road of further underperformance? I believe it is the latter.\nThis isn't your grandfather's momentum\nIn recent years, technology stocks have been synonymous with momentum. Today, tech accounts for nearly 35% of the widely trackediShares Momentum ETF (MTUM). This is about to change.\nMTUM will rebalance during the last week of May, and the weighting to technology will likely be cut in half. Estimates forecast thatfinancials,consumer discretionary,andindustrialswill carry the largest weights, and with that, additional flows will likely be attracted to those sectors.\nThis simple reconstitution is yet another catalyst for further underperformance from technology. Those that want exposure to momentum, whether through a passive ETF or an actively managed strategy, will by rule be owning less tech and more value. In fact, given tech's heavy weighting in most indexes, every 1% rotation out of \"growth & defensive\" sectors is nearly a 3% increase into \"cyclical\" sectors.\nValuation difference: hardly a dent\nAlthough the tech sector’s underperformance in 2021 has been noteworthy, it hasn’t made a dent in the historically wide valuation difference between growth and value stocks.\nLet’s not forget that over the past 10-years, growth has outperformed value by an average of 7%per year. I think many investors still haven’t come to terms with the idea that value can outperform for an extended period.\nAs I wrote in February, “The problem is that current prices [for growth stocks] necessitate a level of future growth that will be very difficult to realize”.  I still believe this to be the case. For example,Zoomis down 43% from its all-time high, but the stock still trades at 84x next year’s earnings.Teslais similar, down 23% from its high, but still trades at 145x forward earnings.\nValue’s outperformance this year has only driven the price-to-earnings premium in the tech-heavy growth index back to 2-standard deviations above normal. We have a long way to go before the valuation gap normalizes.\nInterest rates: a (short-lived) opportunity for tech\nInterest rate movements have been the primary driver of relative performance between growth and value.\nDays when interest rates are rising, growth and technology struggle relative to value and cyclicals.  I believe it is likely that interest rates drift sideways to lower in the coming weeks, allowing oversold conditions in certain tech names to adjust.\nFirst, the interest rate differential between treasuries and many international government bonds is starting to attract foreign buyers to U.S. debt. European and Japanese buyers can earn an additional 1.2% by purchasing 10-year U.S. government debt versus 10-year bunds or JGBs, even after adjustments for currency risk.\nThis increased demand may serve to compress U.S. rates for a period. Additionally, sentiment has become extreme regarding U.S. treasury bonds — usually a good contra indicator. The percentage of bearish bond investors (betting rates will rise) is in the 90thpercentile, and the 6-month rate of change in the 10-year yield is in the 97thpercentile.\nA normalization of sentiment would be another headwind to rising rates in the near term. With several large tech names at technical support, and investment flows into technology (as measured by XLK) weak, we could be due for a near-term reversal in performance leadership as the momentum higher in interest rates wanes.\nHowever, it’s unlikely to last. As foreign economies begin to ramp up vaccination efforts and their economies more fully reopen, their interest rates should rise as those bond markets anticipate higher growth and inflation.\nThe interest rate gap should narrow, making U.S. debt relatively less attractive to foreign buyers – less demand, lower prices, higher rates for treasuries. Further, the Federal Reserve has yet to push back against rising long-term interest rates, and the10-year yielddoesn’t hit technical resistance until to the 2.0% to 2.25% range.\nTaken together, U.S. rates should resume higher as we move into the second half of the year, creating a persistent headwind for tech’s relative performance.\nIt’s not all bad\nIt is important to keep in mind that this is relative performance story … not one of technology crashing and burning. The stock market today remains remarkably broad, with 96% of the stocks in the S&P 500 above their 200-day moving averages. The last time we saw a reading this high was late-2009. And even thoughtechnologyhas lagged, 90% of tech stocks are in an uptrend.\nWe know from history that rates and stocks can rise together. Even rates and technology stocks can rise together (see 2013 as an example). However, in the game of relative investment performance, my view remains that tech continues to fall behind.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3986064,"gmtCreate":1617870693386,"gmtModify":1680783298540,"authorId":3574029017802033,"author":{"id":3574029017802033,"idStr":"3574029017802033","authorId":3574029017802033,"name":"kuehlapis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/732ffeea71fc0732b84f029cc0e8263e","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":341767146,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"couldn't agree more!","text":"couldn't agree more!","html":"couldn't agree more!"},{"id":3985739,"gmtCreate":1617867280791,"gmtModify":1680783290600,"authorId":3578439260866475,"author":{"id":3578439260866475,"idStr":"3578439260866475","authorId":3578439260866475,"name":"VickJW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc8189137ac06a254539a020b5b368b2","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":341767146,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"well <u>said</u>","text":"well <u>said</u>","html":"well <u>said</u>"},{"id":3985011,"gmtCreate":1617857854655,"gmtModify":1680783276961,"authorId":3574484198588936,"author":{"id":3574484198588936,"idStr":"3574484198588936","authorId":3574484198588936,"name":"Eaglewings","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/532f4e45cb093f21d9a38905184a4bb9","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":341767146,"type":1,"supId":3985001,"prevId":0,"content":"Thank you. ","text":"Thank you. ","html":"Thank you. "},{"id":3985001,"gmtCreate":1617857778411,"gmtModify":1680783276368,"authorId":3572817570586604,"author":{"id":3572817570586604,"idStr":"3572817570586604","authorId":3572817570586604,"name":"AlphaKK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31614816d2f82318ead2a8b020b02b0f","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":341767146,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Well said. [鼓掌]","text":"Well said. [鼓掌]","html":"Well said. [鼓掌]"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":341764793,"gmtCreate":1617857500512,"gmtModify":1704704024381,"author":{"id":"3574889845267160","authorId":"3574889845267160","name":"Lunchenmeat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acd5a0ac49c26186e6eb58c8fb6d7c34","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574889845267160","authorIdStr":"3574889845267160"},"htmlText":"[驚訝]&nbsp;","listText":"[驚訝]&nbsp;","text":"[驚訝]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/341764793","repostId":1193572308,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193572308","pubTimestamp":1617843930,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193572308?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-08 09:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193572308","media":"cnbc","summary":"Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next ","content":"<div>\n<p>Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOp-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-08 09:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1193572308","content_text":"Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of relative dominance has come to an end.\" The tech sector as measured by theXLKETF went on to trail theS&P 500by about 6% over the next month, and growth trailed value by over 14% during that same period.\nThis is not meant to be a victory lap; far from it. A month of underperformance hardly meets the criteria for a loss of dominance. Further, the weakness of tech and growth stocks has started to reverse of late, clawing back about half of that initial underperformance.\nWith stocks likeApple,Facebook, andAmazontrading down to their 200-day moving averages, what's next? Is tech ready to make a comeback, or is this just a pause along the road of further underperformance? I believe it is the latter.\nThis isn't your grandfather's momentum\nIn recent years, technology stocks have been synonymous with momentum. Today, tech accounts for nearly 35% of the widely trackediShares Momentum ETF (MTUM). This is about to change.\nMTUM will rebalance during the last week of May, and the weighting to technology will likely be cut in half. Estimates forecast thatfinancials,consumer discretionary,andindustrialswill carry the largest weights, and with that, additional flows will likely be attracted to those sectors.\nThis simple reconstitution is yet another catalyst for further underperformance from technology. Those that want exposure to momentum, whether through a passive ETF or an actively managed strategy, will by rule be owning less tech and more value. In fact, given tech's heavy weighting in most indexes, every 1% rotation out of \"growth & defensive\" sectors is nearly a 3% increase into \"cyclical\" sectors.\nValuation difference: hardly a dent\nAlthough the tech sector’s underperformance in 2021 has been noteworthy, it hasn’t made a dent in the historically wide valuation difference between growth and value stocks.\nLet’s not forget that over the past 10-years, growth has outperformed value by an average of 7%per year. I think many investors still haven’t come to terms with the idea that value can outperform for an extended period.\nAs I wrote in February, “The problem is that current prices [for growth stocks] necessitate a level of future growth that will be very difficult to realize”.  I still believe this to be the case. For example,Zoomis down 43% from its all-time high, but the stock still trades at 84x next year’s earnings.Teslais similar, down 23% from its high, but still trades at 145x forward earnings.\nValue’s outperformance this year has only driven the price-to-earnings premium in the tech-heavy growth index back to 2-standard deviations above normal. We have a long way to go before the valuation gap normalizes.\nInterest rates: a (short-lived) opportunity for tech\nInterest rate movements have been the primary driver of relative performance between growth and value.\nDays when interest rates are rising, growth and technology struggle relative to value and cyclicals.  I believe it is likely that interest rates drift sideways to lower in the coming weeks, allowing oversold conditions in certain tech names to adjust.\nFirst, the interest rate differential between treasuries and many international government bonds is starting to attract foreign buyers to U.S. debt. European and Japanese buyers can earn an additional 1.2% by purchasing 10-year U.S. government debt versus 10-year bunds or JGBs, even after adjustments for currency risk.\nThis increased demand may serve to compress U.S. rates for a period. Additionally, sentiment has become extreme regarding U.S. treasury bonds — usually a good contra indicator. The percentage of bearish bond investors (betting rates will rise) is in the 90thpercentile, and the 6-month rate of change in the 10-year yield is in the 97thpercentile.\nA normalization of sentiment would be another headwind to rising rates in the near term. With several large tech names at technical support, and investment flows into technology (as measured by XLK) weak, we could be due for a near-term reversal in performance leadership as the momentum higher in interest rates wanes.\nHowever, it’s unlikely to last. As foreign economies begin to ramp up vaccination efforts and their economies more fully reopen, their interest rates should rise as those bond markets anticipate higher growth and inflation.\nThe interest rate gap should narrow, making U.S. debt relatively less attractive to foreign buyers – less demand, lower prices, higher rates for treasuries. Further, the Federal Reserve has yet to push back against rising long-term interest rates, and the10-year yielddoesn’t hit technical resistance until to the 2.0% to 2.25% range.\nTaken together, U.S. rates should resume higher as we move into the second half of the year, creating a persistent headwind for tech’s relative performance.\nIt’s not all bad\nIt is important to keep in mind that this is relative performance story … not one of technology crashing and burning. The stock market today remains remarkably broad, with 96% of the stocks in the S&P 500 above their 200-day moving averages. The last time we saw a reading this high was late-2009. And even thoughtechnologyhas lagged, 90% of tech stocks are in an uptrend.\nWe know from history that rates and stocks can rise together. Even rates and technology stocks can rise together (see 2013 as an example). However, in the game of relative investment performance, my view remains that tech continues to fall behind.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":341760219,"gmtCreate":1617856734331,"gmtModify":1704704014209,"author":{"id":"3558393758595354","authorId":"3558393758595354","name":"jer88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c64b2a57368e6315cf4e91bbf34325ac","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3558393758595354","authorIdStr":"3558393758595354"},"htmlText":"Please lkke amd comment","listText":"Please lkke amd comment","text":"Please lkke amd comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/341760219","repostId":1193572308,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193572308","pubTimestamp":1617843930,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193572308?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-08 09:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193572308","media":"cnbc","summary":"Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next ","content":"<div>\n<p>Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOp-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-08 09:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1193572308","content_text":"Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of relative dominance has come to an end.\" The tech sector as measured by theXLKETF went on to trail theS&P 500by about 6% over the next month, and growth trailed value by over 14% during that same period.\nThis is not meant to be a victory lap; far from it. A month of underperformance hardly meets the criteria for a loss of dominance. Further, the weakness of tech and growth stocks has started to reverse of late, clawing back about half of that initial underperformance.\nWith stocks likeApple,Facebook, andAmazontrading down to their 200-day moving averages, what's next? Is tech ready to make a comeback, or is this just a pause along the road of further underperformance? I believe it is the latter.\nThis isn't your grandfather's momentum\nIn recent years, technology stocks have been synonymous with momentum. Today, tech accounts for nearly 35% of the widely trackediShares Momentum ETF (MTUM). This is about to change.\nMTUM will rebalance during the last week of May, and the weighting to technology will likely be cut in half. Estimates forecast thatfinancials,consumer discretionary,andindustrialswill carry the largest weights, and with that, additional flows will likely be attracted to those sectors.\nThis simple reconstitution is yet another catalyst for further underperformance from technology. Those that want exposure to momentum, whether through a passive ETF or an actively managed strategy, will by rule be owning less tech and more value. In fact, given tech's heavy weighting in most indexes, every 1% rotation out of \"growth & defensive\" sectors is nearly a 3% increase into \"cyclical\" sectors.\nValuation difference: hardly a dent\nAlthough the tech sector’s underperformance in 2021 has been noteworthy, it hasn’t made a dent in the historically wide valuation difference between growth and value stocks.\nLet’s not forget that over the past 10-years, growth has outperformed value by an average of 7%per year. I think many investors still haven’t come to terms with the idea that value can outperform for an extended period.\nAs I wrote in February, “The problem is that current prices [for growth stocks] necessitate a level of future growth that will be very difficult to realize”.  I still believe this to be the case. For example,Zoomis down 43% from its all-time high, but the stock still trades at 84x next year’s earnings.Teslais similar, down 23% from its high, but still trades at 145x forward earnings.\nValue’s outperformance this year has only driven the price-to-earnings premium in the tech-heavy growth index back to 2-standard deviations above normal. We have a long way to go before the valuation gap normalizes.\nInterest rates: a (short-lived) opportunity for tech\nInterest rate movements have been the primary driver of relative performance between growth and value.\nDays when interest rates are rising, growth and technology struggle relative to value and cyclicals.  I believe it is likely that interest rates drift sideways to lower in the coming weeks, allowing oversold conditions in certain tech names to adjust.\nFirst, the interest rate differential between treasuries and many international government bonds is starting to attract foreign buyers to U.S. debt. European and Japanese buyers can earn an additional 1.2% by purchasing 10-year U.S. government debt versus 10-year bunds or JGBs, even after adjustments for currency risk.\nThis increased demand may serve to compress U.S. rates for a period. Additionally, sentiment has become extreme regarding U.S. treasury bonds — usually a good contra indicator. The percentage of bearish bond investors (betting rates will rise) is in the 90thpercentile, and the 6-month rate of change in the 10-year yield is in the 97thpercentile.\nA normalization of sentiment would be another headwind to rising rates in the near term. With several large tech names at technical support, and investment flows into technology (as measured by XLK) weak, we could be due for a near-term reversal in performance leadership as the momentum higher in interest rates wanes.\nHowever, it’s unlikely to last. As foreign economies begin to ramp up vaccination efforts and their economies more fully reopen, their interest rates should rise as those bond markets anticipate higher growth and inflation.\nThe interest rate gap should narrow, making U.S. debt relatively less attractive to foreign buyers – less demand, lower prices, higher rates for treasuries. Further, the Federal Reserve has yet to push back against rising long-term interest rates, and the10-year yielddoesn’t hit technical resistance until to the 2.0% to 2.25% range.\nTaken together, U.S. rates should resume higher as we move into the second half of the year, creating a persistent headwind for tech’s relative performance.\nIt’s not all bad\nIt is important to keep in mind that this is relative performance story … not one of technology crashing and burning. The stock market today remains remarkably broad, with 96% of the stocks in the S&P 500 above their 200-day moving averages. The last time we saw a reading this high was late-2009. And even thoughtechnologyhas lagged, 90% of tech stocks are in an uptrend.\nWe know from history that rates and stocks can rise together. Even rates and technology stocks can rise together (see 2013 as an example). However, in the game of relative investment performance, my view remains that tech continues to fall behind.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":341787442,"gmtCreate":1617856702586,"gmtModify":1704704013386,"author":{"id":"3566111551860327","authorId":"3566111551860327","name":"Jo5tarz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cdaa131f223c2f17b3669bce62cc05e","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f84d87792f02cf78e80ee34979fd31e5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3566111551860327","authorIdStr":"3566111551860327"},"htmlText":"Fake news","listText":"Fake news","text":"Fake news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/341787442","repostId":1193572308,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193572308","pubTimestamp":1617843930,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193572308?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-08 09:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193572308","media":"cnbc","summary":"Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next ","content":"<div>\n<p>Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOp-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-08 09:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1193572308","content_text":"Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of relative dominance has come to an end.\" The tech sector as measured by theXLKETF went on to trail theS&P 500by about 6% over the next month, and growth trailed value by over 14% during that same period.\nThis is not meant to be a victory lap; far from it. A month of underperformance hardly meets the criteria for a loss of dominance. Further, the weakness of tech and growth stocks has started to reverse of late, clawing back about half of that initial underperformance.\nWith stocks likeApple,Facebook, andAmazontrading down to their 200-day moving averages, what's next? Is tech ready to make a comeback, or is this just a pause along the road of further underperformance? I believe it is the latter.\nThis isn't your grandfather's momentum\nIn recent years, technology stocks have been synonymous with momentum. Today, tech accounts for nearly 35% of the widely trackediShares Momentum ETF (MTUM). This is about to change.\nMTUM will rebalance during the last week of May, and the weighting to technology will likely be cut in half. Estimates forecast thatfinancials,consumer discretionary,andindustrialswill carry the largest weights, and with that, additional flows will likely be attracted to those sectors.\nThis simple reconstitution is yet another catalyst for further underperformance from technology. Those that want exposure to momentum, whether through a passive ETF or an actively managed strategy, will by rule be owning less tech and more value. In fact, given tech's heavy weighting in most indexes, every 1% rotation out of \"growth & defensive\" sectors is nearly a 3% increase into \"cyclical\" sectors.\nValuation difference: hardly a dent\nAlthough the tech sector’s underperformance in 2021 has been noteworthy, it hasn’t made a dent in the historically wide valuation difference between growth and value stocks.\nLet’s not forget that over the past 10-years, growth has outperformed value by an average of 7%per year. I think many investors still haven’t come to terms with the idea that value can outperform for an extended period.\nAs I wrote in February, “The problem is that current prices [for growth stocks] necessitate a level of future growth that will be very difficult to realize”.  I still believe this to be the case. For example,Zoomis down 43% from its all-time high, but the stock still trades at 84x next year’s earnings.Teslais similar, down 23% from its high, but still trades at 145x forward earnings.\nValue’s outperformance this year has only driven the price-to-earnings premium in the tech-heavy growth index back to 2-standard deviations above normal. We have a long way to go before the valuation gap normalizes.\nInterest rates: a (short-lived) opportunity for tech\nInterest rate movements have been the primary driver of relative performance between growth and value.\nDays when interest rates are rising, growth and technology struggle relative to value and cyclicals.  I believe it is likely that interest rates drift sideways to lower in the coming weeks, allowing oversold conditions in certain tech names to adjust.\nFirst, the interest rate differential between treasuries and many international government bonds is starting to attract foreign buyers to U.S. debt. European and Japanese buyers can earn an additional 1.2% by purchasing 10-year U.S. government debt versus 10-year bunds or JGBs, even after adjustments for currency risk.\nThis increased demand may serve to compress U.S. rates for a period. Additionally, sentiment has become extreme regarding U.S. treasury bonds — usually a good contra indicator. The percentage of bearish bond investors (betting rates will rise) is in the 90thpercentile, and the 6-month rate of change in the 10-year yield is in the 97thpercentile.\nA normalization of sentiment would be another headwind to rising rates in the near term. With several large tech names at technical support, and investment flows into technology (as measured by XLK) weak, we could be due for a near-term reversal in performance leadership as the momentum higher in interest rates wanes.\nHowever, it’s unlikely to last. As foreign economies begin to ramp up vaccination efforts and their economies more fully reopen, their interest rates should rise as those bond markets anticipate higher growth and inflation.\nThe interest rate gap should narrow, making U.S. debt relatively less attractive to foreign buyers – less demand, lower prices, higher rates for treasuries. Further, the Federal Reserve has yet to push back against rising long-term interest rates, and the10-year yielddoesn’t hit technical resistance until to the 2.0% to 2.25% range.\nTaken together, U.S. rates should resume higher as we move into the second half of the year, creating a persistent headwind for tech’s relative performance.\nIt’s not all bad\nIt is important to keep in mind that this is relative performance story … not one of technology crashing and burning. The stock market today remains remarkably broad, with 96% of the stocks in the S&P 500 above their 200-day moving averages. The last time we saw a reading this high was late-2009. And even thoughtechnologyhas lagged, 90% of tech stocks are in an uptrend.\nWe know from history that rates and stocks can rise together. Even rates and technology stocks can rise together (see 2013 as an example). However, in the game of relative investment performance, my view remains that tech continues to fall behind.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":341781386,"gmtCreate":1617856147645,"gmtModify":1704704003281,"author":{"id":"3563421686188310","authorId":"3563421686188310","name":"Hopehope赋予希望","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/46495f44529967f5d3b4d03a47167f5b","vip":2,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3563421686188310","authorIdStr":"3563421686188310"},"htmlText":"Selective tech stocks will be good. Jamie Simon says fintech is the greatest threat to banks","listText":"Selective tech stocks will be good. Jamie Simon says fintech is the greatest threat to banks","text":"Selective tech stocks will be good. Jamie Simon says fintech is the greatest threat to banks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/341781386","repostId":1193572308,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193572308","pubTimestamp":1617843930,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193572308?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-08 09:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193572308","media":"cnbc","summary":"Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next ","content":"<div>\n<p>Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOp-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-08 09:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1193572308","content_text":"Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of relative dominance has come to an end.\" The tech sector as measured by theXLKETF went on to trail theS&P 500by about 6% over the next month, and growth trailed value by over 14% during that same period.\nThis is not meant to be a victory lap; far from it. A month of underperformance hardly meets the criteria for a loss of dominance. Further, the weakness of tech and growth stocks has started to reverse of late, clawing back about half of that initial underperformance.\nWith stocks likeApple,Facebook, andAmazontrading down to their 200-day moving averages, what's next? Is tech ready to make a comeback, or is this just a pause along the road of further underperformance? I believe it is the latter.\nThis isn't your grandfather's momentum\nIn recent years, technology stocks have been synonymous with momentum. Today, tech accounts for nearly 35% of the widely trackediShares Momentum ETF (MTUM). This is about to change.\nMTUM will rebalance during the last week of May, and the weighting to technology will likely be cut in half. Estimates forecast thatfinancials,consumer discretionary,andindustrialswill carry the largest weights, and with that, additional flows will likely be attracted to those sectors.\nThis simple reconstitution is yet another catalyst for further underperformance from technology. Those that want exposure to momentum, whether through a passive ETF or an actively managed strategy, will by rule be owning less tech and more value. In fact, given tech's heavy weighting in most indexes, every 1% rotation out of \"growth & defensive\" sectors is nearly a 3% increase into \"cyclical\" sectors.\nValuation difference: hardly a dent\nAlthough the tech sector’s underperformance in 2021 has been noteworthy, it hasn’t made a dent in the historically wide valuation difference between growth and value stocks.\nLet’s not forget that over the past 10-years, growth has outperformed value by an average of 7%per year. I think many investors still haven’t come to terms with the idea that value can outperform for an extended period.\nAs I wrote in February, “The problem is that current prices [for growth stocks] necessitate a level of future growth that will be very difficult to realize”.  I still believe this to be the case. For example,Zoomis down 43% from its all-time high, but the stock still trades at 84x next year’s earnings.Teslais similar, down 23% from its high, but still trades at 145x forward earnings.\nValue’s outperformance this year has only driven the price-to-earnings premium in the tech-heavy growth index back to 2-standard deviations above normal. We have a long way to go before the valuation gap normalizes.\nInterest rates: a (short-lived) opportunity for tech\nInterest rate movements have been the primary driver of relative performance between growth and value.\nDays when interest rates are rising, growth and technology struggle relative to value and cyclicals.  I believe it is likely that interest rates drift sideways to lower in the coming weeks, allowing oversold conditions in certain tech names to adjust.\nFirst, the interest rate differential between treasuries and many international government bonds is starting to attract foreign buyers to U.S. debt. European and Japanese buyers can earn an additional 1.2% by purchasing 10-year U.S. government debt versus 10-year bunds or JGBs, even after adjustments for currency risk.\nThis increased demand may serve to compress U.S. rates for a period. Additionally, sentiment has become extreme regarding U.S. treasury bonds — usually a good contra indicator. The percentage of bearish bond investors (betting rates will rise) is in the 90thpercentile, and the 6-month rate of change in the 10-year yield is in the 97thpercentile.\nA normalization of sentiment would be another headwind to rising rates in the near term. With several large tech names at technical support, and investment flows into technology (as measured by XLK) weak, we could be due for a near-term reversal in performance leadership as the momentum higher in interest rates wanes.\nHowever, it’s unlikely to last. As foreign economies begin to ramp up vaccination efforts and their economies more fully reopen, their interest rates should rise as those bond markets anticipate higher growth and inflation.\nThe interest rate gap should narrow, making U.S. debt relatively less attractive to foreign buyers – less demand, lower prices, higher rates for treasuries. Further, the Federal Reserve has yet to push back against rising long-term interest rates, and the10-year yielddoesn’t hit technical resistance until to the 2.0% to 2.25% range.\nTaken together, U.S. rates should resume higher as we move into the second half of the year, creating a persistent headwind for tech’s relative performance.\nIt’s not all bad\nIt is important to keep in mind that this is relative performance story … not one of technology crashing and burning. The stock market today remains remarkably broad, with 96% of the stocks in the S&P 500 above their 200-day moving averages. The last time we saw a reading this high was late-2009. And even thoughtechnologyhas lagged, 90% of tech stocks are in an uptrend.\nWe know from history that rates and stocks can rise together. Even rates and technology stocks can rise together (see 2013 as an example). However, in the game of relative investment performance, my view remains that tech continues to fall behind.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3985652,"gmtCreate":1617865820412,"gmtModify":1680783285450,"authorId":3579925209341859,"author":{"id":3579925209341859,"idStr":"3579925209341859","authorId":3579925209341859,"name":"FlyHighFly","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a610574cab0fe2ee4e79d08d0eb9ce6c","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":3563421686188310,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3563421686188310,"idStr":"3563421686188310","authorId":3563421686188310,"name":"Hopehope赋予希望","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/46495f44529967f5d3b4d03a47167f5b","vip":2,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[{"badgeId":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8-1","templateUuid":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8","name":"Star Contributor","description":"Have published 3 or more picked posts, and have published at least one picked post and participated in comments within 30 days","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://ttm.financial/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.11.22","individualDisplayEnabled":1,"backgroundColor":{"dark":"#675a37","tint":"#f9ebc2"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#ffffff","tint":"#ab7a0e"},"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2007}]},"objectId":341781386,"type":1,"supId":3985199,"prevId":3985206,"content":"Sorry. I meant younger group. ","text":"Sorry. I meant younger group. ","html":"Sorry. I meant younger group. "},{"id":3984891,"gmtCreate":1617856719236,"gmtModify":1680783280979,"authorId":3558393758595354,"author":{"id":3558393758595354,"idStr":"3558393758595354","authorId":3558393758595354,"name":"jer88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c64b2a57368e6315cf4e91bbf34325ac","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":341781386,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>agree</u>","text":"<u>agree</u>","html":"<u>agree</u>"},{"id":3985209,"gmtCreate":1617859687277,"gmtModify":1680783278034,"authorId":3563421686188310,"author":{"id":3563421686188310,"idStr":"3563421686188310","authorId":3563421686188310,"name":"Hopehope赋予希望","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/46495f44529967f5d3b4d03a47167f5b","vip":2,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[{"badgeId":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8-1","templateUuid":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8","name":"Star Contributor","description":"Have published 3 or more picked posts, and have published at least one picked post and participated in comments within 30 days","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://ttm.financial/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.11.22","individualDisplayEnabled":1,"backgroundColor":{"dark":"#675a37","tint":"#f9ebc2"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#ffffff","tint":"#ab7a0e"},"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2007}]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":341781386,"type":1,"supId":3984930,"prevId":0,"content":"haha I like tiger but got people who don't like <u>too</u>","text":"haha I like tiger but got people who don't like <u>too</u>","html":"haha I like tiger but got people who don't like <u>too</u>"},{"id":3985206,"gmtCreate":1617859668007,"gmtModify":1680783278005,"authorId":3563421686188310,"author":{"id":3563421686188310,"idStr":"3563421686188310","authorId":3563421686188310,"name":"Hopehope赋予希望","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/46495f44529967f5d3b4d03a47167f5b","vip":2,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[{"badgeId":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8-1","templateUuid":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8","name":"Star Contributor","description":"Have published 3 or more picked posts, and have published at least one picked post and participated in comments within 30 days","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://ttm.financial/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.11.22","individualDisplayEnabled":1,"backgroundColor":{"dark":"#675a37","tint":"#f9ebc2"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#ffffff","tint":"#ab7a0e"},"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2007}]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":341781386,"type":1,"supId":3985199,"prevId":0,"content":"you group?","text":"you group?","html":"you group?"},{"id":3985199,"gmtCreate":1617859596946,"gmtModify":1680783277887,"authorId":3579925209341859,"author":{"id":3579925209341859,"idStr":"3579925209341859","authorId":3579925209341859,"name":"FlyHighFly","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a610574cab0fe2ee4e79d08d0eb9ce6c","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":341781386,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Banks will also need to Revolunise and stay relevent especially to the you group.","text":"Banks will also need to Revolunise and stay relevent especially to the you group.","html":"Banks will also need to Revolunise and stay relevent especially to the you group."}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":341789755,"gmtCreate":1617856038777,"gmtModify":1704704001810,"author":{"id":"3574286103228100","authorId":"3574286103228100","name":"Jinyuan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b083889e4ac40197a5ea0a1dcc0193c4","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3dee1aa3a3a3c1814833a4d3f8a5669","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3574286103228100","authorIdStr":"3574286103228100"},"htmlText":"The short term market sentiment is dependent on news and market analyst.&nbsp;The long term market sentiment is dependent on the company fundamentals, vision and performance.Tech is here to stay. Growth may not be as bullish as before but tech has and will have an increasing influence in our lives.","listText":"The short term market sentiment is dependent on news and market analyst.&nbsp;The long term market sentiment is dependent on the company fundamentals, vision and performance.Tech is here to stay. Growth may not be as bullish as before but tech has and will have an increasing influence in our lives.","text":"The short term market sentiment is dependent on news and market analyst. The long term market sentiment is dependent on the company fundamentals, vision and performance.Tech is here to stay. Growth may not be as bullish as before but tech has and will have an increasing influence in our lives.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/341789755","repostId":1193572308,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193572308","pubTimestamp":1617843930,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193572308?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-08 09:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193572308","media":"cnbc","summary":"Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next ","content":"<div>\n<p>Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOp-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-08 09:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1193572308","content_text":"Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of relative dominance has come to an end.\" The tech sector as measured by theXLKETF went on to trail theS&P 500by about 6% over the next month, and growth trailed value by over 14% during that same period.\nThis is not meant to be a victory lap; far from it. A month of underperformance hardly meets the criteria for a loss of dominance. Further, the weakness of tech and growth stocks has started to reverse of late, clawing back about half of that initial underperformance.\nWith stocks likeApple,Facebook, andAmazontrading down to their 200-day moving averages, what's next? Is tech ready to make a comeback, or is this just a pause along the road of further underperformance? I believe it is the latter.\nThis isn't your grandfather's momentum\nIn recent years, technology stocks have been synonymous with momentum. Today, tech accounts for nearly 35% of the widely trackediShares Momentum ETF (MTUM). This is about to change.\nMTUM will rebalance during the last week of May, and the weighting to technology will likely be cut in half. Estimates forecast thatfinancials,consumer discretionary,andindustrialswill carry the largest weights, and with that, additional flows will likely be attracted to those sectors.\nThis simple reconstitution is yet another catalyst for further underperformance from technology. Those that want exposure to momentum, whether through a passive ETF or an actively managed strategy, will by rule be owning less tech and more value. In fact, given tech's heavy weighting in most indexes, every 1% rotation out of \"growth & defensive\" sectors is nearly a 3% increase into \"cyclical\" sectors.\nValuation difference: hardly a dent\nAlthough the tech sector’s underperformance in 2021 has been noteworthy, it hasn’t made a dent in the historically wide valuation difference between growth and value stocks.\nLet’s not forget that over the past 10-years, growth has outperformed value by an average of 7%per year. I think many investors still haven’t come to terms with the idea that value can outperform for an extended period.\nAs I wrote in February, “The problem is that current prices [for growth stocks] necessitate a level of future growth that will be very difficult to realize”.  I still believe this to be the case. For example,Zoomis down 43% from its all-time high, but the stock still trades at 84x next year’s earnings.Teslais similar, down 23% from its high, but still trades at 145x forward earnings.\nValue’s outperformance this year has only driven the price-to-earnings premium in the tech-heavy growth index back to 2-standard deviations above normal. We have a long way to go before the valuation gap normalizes.\nInterest rates: a (short-lived) opportunity for tech\nInterest rate movements have been the primary driver of relative performance between growth and value.\nDays when interest rates are rising, growth and technology struggle relative to value and cyclicals.  I believe it is likely that interest rates drift sideways to lower in the coming weeks, allowing oversold conditions in certain tech names to adjust.\nFirst, the interest rate differential between treasuries and many international government bonds is starting to attract foreign buyers to U.S. debt. European and Japanese buyers can earn an additional 1.2% by purchasing 10-year U.S. government debt versus 10-year bunds or JGBs, even after adjustments for currency risk.\nThis increased demand may serve to compress U.S. rates for a period. Additionally, sentiment has become extreme regarding U.S. treasury bonds — usually a good contra indicator. The percentage of bearish bond investors (betting rates will rise) is in the 90thpercentile, and the 6-month rate of change in the 10-year yield is in the 97thpercentile.\nA normalization of sentiment would be another headwind to rising rates in the near term. With several large tech names at technical support, and investment flows into technology (as measured by XLK) weak, we could be due for a near-term reversal in performance leadership as the momentum higher in interest rates wanes.\nHowever, it’s unlikely to last. As foreign economies begin to ramp up vaccination efforts and their economies more fully reopen, their interest rates should rise as those bond markets anticipate higher growth and inflation.\nThe interest rate gap should narrow, making U.S. debt relatively less attractive to foreign buyers – less demand, lower prices, higher rates for treasuries. Further, the Federal Reserve has yet to push back against rising long-term interest rates, and the10-year yielddoesn’t hit technical resistance until to the 2.0% to 2.25% range.\nTaken together, U.S. rates should resume higher as we move into the second half of the year, creating a persistent headwind for tech’s relative performance.\nIt’s not all bad\nIt is important to keep in mind that this is relative performance story … not one of technology crashing and burning. The stock market today remains remarkably broad, with 96% of the stocks in the S&P 500 above their 200-day moving averages. The last time we saw a reading this high was late-2009. And even thoughtechnologyhas lagged, 90% of tech stocks are in an uptrend.\nWe know from history that rates and stocks can rise together. Even rates and technology stocks can rise together (see 2013 as an example). However, in the game of relative investment performance, my view remains that tech continues to fall behind.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3986425,"gmtCreate":1617873971644,"gmtModify":1680783299450,"authorId":3572923586954779,"author":{"id":3572923586954779,"idStr":"3572923586954779","authorId":3572923586954779,"name":"LimLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/217b03b0c4808fb537070ba4e8f9d83f","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":341789755,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"yes. tech is here to stay. growth can be seen every year. but it is also true that some tech counters are much over valued. so let's choose our tech stocks with care.","text":"yes. tech is here to stay. growth can be seen every year. but it is also true that some tech counters are much over valued. so let's choose our tech stocks with care.","html":"yes. tech is here to stay. growth can be seen every year. but it is also true that some tech counters are much over valued. so let's choose our tech stocks with care."},{"id":3985505,"gmtCreate":1617863674381,"gmtModify":1680783285850,"authorId":3569301571685332,"author":{"id":3569301571685332,"idStr":"3569301571685332","authorId":3569301571685332,"name":"ahswee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9df9d1562760402e99c23de8c7a82773","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-1","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Elite Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 30","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0f87127c854ce3191a752d57b46edc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9835ce48b8c8743566d344ac7a7ba8c","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76754b53ce7a90019f132c1d2fbc698f","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"60.09%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":341789755,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"well said!","text":"well said!","html":"well said!"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":341780103,"gmtCreate":1617855828102,"gmtModify":1704703999331,"author":{"id":"3577347851898435","authorId":"3577347851898435","name":"MarketPulse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6b16f1b86e7977d1bb375d78b71b51d","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3577347851898435","authorIdStr":"3577347851898435"},"htmlText":"Good article. Yes, diversify still the best","listText":"Good article. Yes, diversify still the best","text":"Good article. Yes, diversify still the best","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/341780103","repostId":1193572308,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193572308","pubTimestamp":1617843930,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193572308?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-08 09:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193572308","media":"cnbc","summary":"Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next ","content":"<div>\n<p>Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOp-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-08 09:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1193572308","content_text":"Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of relative dominance has come to an end.\" The tech sector as measured by theXLKETF went on to trail theS&P 500by about 6% over the next month, and growth trailed value by over 14% during that same period.\nThis is not meant to be a victory lap; far from it. A month of underperformance hardly meets the criteria for a loss of dominance. Further, the weakness of tech and growth stocks has started to reverse of late, clawing back about half of that initial underperformance.\nWith stocks likeApple,Facebook, andAmazontrading down to their 200-day moving averages, what's next? Is tech ready to make a comeback, or is this just a pause along the road of further underperformance? I believe it is the latter.\nThis isn't your grandfather's momentum\nIn recent years, technology stocks have been synonymous with momentum. Today, tech accounts for nearly 35% of the widely trackediShares Momentum ETF (MTUM). This is about to change.\nMTUM will rebalance during the last week of May, and the weighting to technology will likely be cut in half. Estimates forecast thatfinancials,consumer discretionary,andindustrialswill carry the largest weights, and with that, additional flows will likely be attracted to those sectors.\nThis simple reconstitution is yet another catalyst for further underperformance from technology. Those that want exposure to momentum, whether through a passive ETF or an actively managed strategy, will by rule be owning less tech and more value. In fact, given tech's heavy weighting in most indexes, every 1% rotation out of \"growth & defensive\" sectors is nearly a 3% increase into \"cyclical\" sectors.\nValuation difference: hardly a dent\nAlthough the tech sector’s underperformance in 2021 has been noteworthy, it hasn’t made a dent in the historically wide valuation difference between growth and value stocks.\nLet’s not forget that over the past 10-years, growth has outperformed value by an average of 7%per year. I think many investors still haven’t come to terms with the idea that value can outperform for an extended period.\nAs I wrote in February, “The problem is that current prices [for growth stocks] necessitate a level of future growth that will be very difficult to realize”.  I still believe this to be the case. For example,Zoomis down 43% from its all-time high, but the stock still trades at 84x next year’s earnings.Teslais similar, down 23% from its high, but still trades at 145x forward earnings.\nValue’s outperformance this year has only driven the price-to-earnings premium in the tech-heavy growth index back to 2-standard deviations above normal. We have a long way to go before the valuation gap normalizes.\nInterest rates: a (short-lived) opportunity for tech\nInterest rate movements have been the primary driver of relative performance between growth and value.\nDays when interest rates are rising, growth and technology struggle relative to value and cyclicals.  I believe it is likely that interest rates drift sideways to lower in the coming weeks, allowing oversold conditions in certain tech names to adjust.\nFirst, the interest rate differential between treasuries and many international government bonds is starting to attract foreign buyers to U.S. debt. European and Japanese buyers can earn an additional 1.2% by purchasing 10-year U.S. government debt versus 10-year bunds or JGBs, even after adjustments for currency risk.\nThis increased demand may serve to compress U.S. rates for a period. Additionally, sentiment has become extreme regarding U.S. treasury bonds — usually a good contra indicator. The percentage of bearish bond investors (betting rates will rise) is in the 90thpercentile, and the 6-month rate of change in the 10-year yield is in the 97thpercentile.\nA normalization of sentiment would be another headwind to rising rates in the near term. With several large tech names at technical support, and investment flows into technology (as measured by XLK) weak, we could be due for a near-term reversal in performance leadership as the momentum higher in interest rates wanes.\nHowever, it’s unlikely to last. As foreign economies begin to ramp up vaccination efforts and their economies more fully reopen, their interest rates should rise as those bond markets anticipate higher growth and inflation.\nThe interest rate gap should narrow, making U.S. debt relatively less attractive to foreign buyers – less demand, lower prices, higher rates for treasuries. Further, the Federal Reserve has yet to push back against rising long-term interest rates, and the10-year yielddoesn’t hit technical resistance until to the 2.0% to 2.25% range.\nTaken together, U.S. rates should resume higher as we move into the second half of the year, creating a persistent headwind for tech’s relative performance.\nIt’s not all bad\nIt is important to keep in mind that this is relative performance story … not one of technology crashing and burning. The stock market today remains remarkably broad, with 96% of the stocks in the S&P 500 above their 200-day moving averages. The last time we saw a reading this high was late-2009. And even thoughtechnologyhas lagged, 90% of tech stocks are in an uptrend.\nWe know from history that rates and stocks can rise together. Even rates and technology stocks can rise together (see 2013 as an example). However, in the game of relative investment performance, my view remains that tech continues to fall behind.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":341780943,"gmtCreate":1617855791182,"gmtModify":1704703998836,"author":{"id":"3557024931927052","authorId":"3557024931927052","name":"nctony","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1449dfc5089ded0e8efe303fd4dd43b1","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3557024931927052","authorIdStr":"3557024931927052"},"htmlText":"Hope so","listText":"Hope so","text":"Hope so","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/341780943","repostId":1193572308,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193572308","pubTimestamp":1617843930,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193572308?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-08 09:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193572308","media":"cnbc","summary":"Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next ","content":"<div>\n<p>Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOp-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-08 09:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1193572308","content_text":"Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of relative dominance has come to an end.\" The tech sector as measured by theXLKETF went on to trail theS&P 500by about 6% over the next month, and growth trailed value by over 14% during that same period.\nThis is not meant to be a victory lap; far from it. A month of underperformance hardly meets the criteria for a loss of dominance. Further, the weakness of tech and growth stocks has started to reverse of late, clawing back about half of that initial underperformance.\nWith stocks likeApple,Facebook, andAmazontrading down to their 200-day moving averages, what's next? Is tech ready to make a comeback, or is this just a pause along the road of further underperformance? I believe it is the latter.\nThis isn't your grandfather's momentum\nIn recent years, technology stocks have been synonymous with momentum. Today, tech accounts for nearly 35% of the widely trackediShares Momentum ETF (MTUM). This is about to change.\nMTUM will rebalance during the last week of May, and the weighting to technology will likely be cut in half. Estimates forecast thatfinancials,consumer discretionary,andindustrialswill carry the largest weights, and with that, additional flows will likely be attracted to those sectors.\nThis simple reconstitution is yet another catalyst for further underperformance from technology. Those that want exposure to momentum, whether through a passive ETF or an actively managed strategy, will by rule be owning less tech and more value. In fact, given tech's heavy weighting in most indexes, every 1% rotation out of \"growth & defensive\" sectors is nearly a 3% increase into \"cyclical\" sectors.\nValuation difference: hardly a dent\nAlthough the tech sector’s underperformance in 2021 has been noteworthy, it hasn’t made a dent in the historically wide valuation difference between growth and value stocks.\nLet’s not forget that over the past 10-years, growth has outperformed value by an average of 7%per year. I think many investors still haven’t come to terms with the idea that value can outperform for an extended period.\nAs I wrote in February, “The problem is that current prices [for growth stocks] necessitate a level of future growth that will be very difficult to realize”.  I still believe this to be the case. For example,Zoomis down 43% from its all-time high, but the stock still trades at 84x next year’s earnings.Teslais similar, down 23% from its high, but still trades at 145x forward earnings.\nValue’s outperformance this year has only driven the price-to-earnings premium in the tech-heavy growth index back to 2-standard deviations above normal. We have a long way to go before the valuation gap normalizes.\nInterest rates: a (short-lived) opportunity for tech\nInterest rate movements have been the primary driver of relative performance between growth and value.\nDays when interest rates are rising, growth and technology struggle relative to value and cyclicals.  I believe it is likely that interest rates drift sideways to lower in the coming weeks, allowing oversold conditions in certain tech names to adjust.\nFirst, the interest rate differential between treasuries and many international government bonds is starting to attract foreign buyers to U.S. debt. European and Japanese buyers can earn an additional 1.2% by purchasing 10-year U.S. government debt versus 10-year bunds or JGBs, even after adjustments for currency risk.\nThis increased demand may serve to compress U.S. rates for a period. Additionally, sentiment has become extreme regarding U.S. treasury bonds — usually a good contra indicator. The percentage of bearish bond investors (betting rates will rise) is in the 90thpercentile, and the 6-month rate of change in the 10-year yield is in the 97thpercentile.\nA normalization of sentiment would be another headwind to rising rates in the near term. With several large tech names at technical support, and investment flows into technology (as measured by XLK) weak, we could be due for a near-term reversal in performance leadership as the momentum higher in interest rates wanes.\nHowever, it’s unlikely to last. As foreign economies begin to ramp up vaccination efforts and their economies more fully reopen, their interest rates should rise as those bond markets anticipate higher growth and inflation.\nThe interest rate gap should narrow, making U.S. debt relatively less attractive to foreign buyers – less demand, lower prices, higher rates for treasuries. Further, the Federal Reserve has yet to push back against rising long-term interest rates, and the10-year yielddoesn’t hit technical resistance until to the 2.0% to 2.25% range.\nTaken together, U.S. rates should resume higher as we move into the second half of the year, creating a persistent headwind for tech’s relative performance.\nIt’s not all bad\nIt is important to keep in mind that this is relative performance story … not one of technology crashing and burning. The stock market today remains remarkably broad, with 96% of the stocks in the S&P 500 above their 200-day moving averages. The last time we saw a reading this high was late-2009. And even thoughtechnologyhas lagged, 90% of tech stocks are in an uptrend.\nWe know from history that rates and stocks can rise together. Even rates and technology stocks can rise together (see 2013 as an example). However, in the game of relative investment performance, my view remains that tech continues to fall behind.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":103,"commentSize":39,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}