Why $19 Seems Like An Unbreachable Wall For Palantir

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Why $19 Seems Like An Unbreachable Wall For Palantir

Seeking Alpha2023-08-18

SummaryPalantir's stock has slipped from its year-to-date high back to the mid-teens after Q2 earnings, in line with our PT at $14.This is in line with our concerns about the durability of Palantir's ...

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ShawnTan1978
·2023-08-18
I sold my palantir at $19.. entered again at $14.8
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ShawnTan1978
·2023-08-18
in less than 6 months Palantir will hit $24. I can't tell you much but but take my word for it.
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Specifically, much of the stock's gains over the last three months since announcing the AI Platform have largely been driven by market expectations. Despite resilient interest from both investors and Palantir product end-users in AIP, management's repeated narrative over the new solution's uncertain monetization strategy was a bogey that markets are finally coming to grips with after Q2 earnings.Admittedly, CEO Alex Karp has been a man of his words as of late, leading his team on the delivery of consistent GAAP profitability at the company, bolstered by a stark jump to GAAP operating income as well for two consecutive quarters this year. And he could very well do it again by surprising markets with a clear plan on how AIP could be the lifeline to Palantir's recently stalling growth. Looking ahead, even if Palantir does offer greater granularity on how it plans to capture generative AI opportunities via AIP (cue the upcoming AIPCon 2.0 as a potential stage for the surprise to land), we expect any ensuing positive impact on Palantir's fundamentals and stock (bull case PT $19) to be gradual in the immediate-term, in line with modest tangible AI-related results reported by its software peers so far in the early stages of ramping up their respective go-to-market strategies.Investors are likely to mull on the durability of the underlying business’ growth prospects as Palantir ramps up deployment and monetization of AI Platform, all while balancing the Strategic Commercial Contract dud, alongside lumpiness in government contract wins and ensuing revenue recognition. For now, the stock continues to find resilience in the $15 range, which is largely in line with our previous analysis, considering investors’ continued shift in focus towards whether Palantir could sustainably monetize from impending AI growth opportunities. And this remains a huge question mark even coming out of Palantir’s second quarter earnings release, as management continues to prioritize driving awareness in AIP over monetization in the near-term.And that’s what’s going on in the market and that gets to when we actually monetize this, we will monetize…We will figure out how to monetize it. First, we’re teaching the market what it is.Source: Palantir 2Q23 Earnings Call TranscriptWhile management’s latest commentary is supportive of positive progress in driving adoption of AIP across both the public and private sectors, underscoring durable interest for the nascent offering, tangible proof remains lacking on the extent of which Palantir could properly monetize from the emerging trend. There are also uncertainties over whether prospective AIP contributions would be incremental to or just supportive of Palantir’s planned long-term growth trajectory (30%+ annualized growth). We expect AIP monetization to be the next catalyst, following Palantir’s achievement of consistent quarterly GAAP profitability, critical to unlocking pent-up value in the stock, given the nascent technology remains a value accretive factor over the longer-term. But limited visibility into the strategy’s roadmap is expected to keep the stock rangebound over the near-term.AIP UpdateManagement’s recent commentary underscores optimism over the pervasive TAM expansion opportunities observed across both its commercial and government segments enabled by the deployment of AIP. This continues to complement the “land-and-expand” strategy at the heart of Palantir’s business model, which is corroborated by the overwhelming interest in AIP from its existing customers:Jacobs (J): As discussed in our previous coverage, Jacobs Solutions has recently expanded its partnership with Palantir beyond the development of an industry-tailored version of Foundry, becoming an early user of AIP. Jacobs how relies on AIP to “monitor current system conditions and conduct future infrastructure in real time”, freeing up weeks to months of billable hours that can be reallocated towards creating additional value and better solutions for its clients. During AIPCon in June, Jacobs CEO Bob Pragada had highlighted AIP’s ability to “enable speed, scale and focus without sacrificing security in extracting value from data” as a key value proposition of the new solution. This includes driving real-time, real-life case studies into Jacobs’ water management solutions across a wide array of “challenging environmental conditions”, which is critical for the future planning and development of critical infrastructure.J.D. Power: J.D. Power currently leverages AIP to drive insight from consolidated automotive OEM datasets, spanning “incentives, retail sales, valuations vehicle configuration, service and warranty, new and used inventory, and automobile customer experience data”. The collaboration aims at “transforming the way automakers, dealers, insurers and financing companies leverage data-driven insights” in the automotive industry. The latest development is an expansion of J.D. Power’s existing partnership with Palantir in leveraging Foundry for driving “repair analytics, intelligent alerts [on industry trends], EV battery health analytics, and digital journey optimization”. At AIPCon, J.D. Power’s Chief Digital and Technology Officer Bernardo Rodriguez highlights how AIP is able to accelerate time from data analysis to driving insight and ensuing deployment into applications relevant for automotive use cases.Novartis (NVS): The pharmaceutical giant is leveraging AIP to accelerate its R&D efforts across drug discovery and development. The expanded partnership builds on its joint creation of “The data42 program shows Novartis' intent to go big on data and digital” with Palantir five years ago. data42 represents an “integrated data lake” of “2 million patient-years of data”, and leverages AI to generate valuable insights critical to the design and discovery of “new drugs based purely on data”. And the expanded adoption of AIP is expected to further accelerate related efforts, creating a “fundamental advantage” for the company.Meanwhile, AIP’s independence from existing Palantir operating systems like Foundry and Gotham also draws interest from both existing and prospective new customers across various industries, as evidenced by ongoing sales discussions with 300+ organizations. The results continue to corroborate consistently positive progress in management’s aims to of “teaching the market” what AIP is first, considering robust take-rates in the short 10 weeks since launch.Specifically, following AIPCon in early June, where Palantir and its partners had provided a deep dive into the value that AIP is capable of delivering for end users, management was able to better present close-to-home use cases for the new solution ahead of emerging interest for the nascent technology. In addition to the typical buzz words like “large language models” often associated with generative AI, management had laid out specific use cases for AIP – including the “productivity suite of applications”, providing a glimpse into how it plans to capture related opportunities across enterprise end markets.AIP Builder allows you to build your data pipelines with natural semantics. AIP Terminal is the command line for your AI operating system, enabling you to dynamically wheel your ontology tools and applications for ad-hoc exploration and problem solving. AIP Logic enables you to build LLM-backed functions with rich tool composition in its developer tool chain. And AIP Automate, lets you turn those Logic functions into agents, copilots and automations. One more item in the suite I want to highlight. AIP Assist, which accelerates today’s users and users of AIP, Gotham and Foundry by providing help and helpers dynamically. AIP Assist is configured to be toolaware. So it knows not only everything from the product documentation, it also knows what actions it can take to manipulate the application state to actually resolve and advance the user’s workflow.Source: Palantir 2Q23 Earnings Call TranscriptYet, this also makes it difficult to not draw comparisons between AIP’s productivity suite and other AI-enabled “copilot” offerings announced by hyperscalers like Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOG / GOOGL), and Amazon (AMZN) to date since the debut of OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Those that have been closely following big tech developments in AI would know that LLM-as-a-service offerings – most notably represented as a LLM “marketplace” – alongside their deployment into related applications have been ramping up rapidly among hyperscalers, spanning Amazon Web Services’ Bedrock, Azure OpenAI Service, Microsoft Copilot productivity tools, Google Cloud Platform’s BigQuery, to name a few.Related developments underscore risks of significant competitive headwinds for the deployment and monetization of Palantir’s AIP over the longer-term, especially as most enterprises of all sizes have either already adopted or are considering migration to AWS, GCP and/or Azure as a primary cloud service provider. This essentially reinforces the hyperscalers’ competitive advantage in capturing a meaningful share of emerging generative AI growth opportunities. With Palantir still trying to get the word on AIP’s value proposition out onto the streets, with no fundamental roadmap for monetizing the new tool in the near-term, it remains difficult to build confidence on related long-term revenue opportunities stemming from the company’s relatively nominal customer count of 421.The current lack of visibility into AIP’s monetization roadmap is further exacerbated by the little detail management has provided on the matter in Palantir’s latest earnings call, other than diving into the “value proposition of AIP”. Related uncertainties and competitive risks continue to highlight AIP monetization as a key focus area for investors, especially considering Palantir’s tempered growth trends in recent quarters despite progress in maintaining GAAP profitability. Looking ahead, we expect AIPCon 2.0 coming September as the next key event on the watch list. Details on Palantir’s AIP strategy would be a welcomed affair, as the new solutions continues to be both an opportunity and a threat to the stock’s near-term prospects – an opportunity in the sense that AIP could be a TAM expanding catalyst for Palantir ahead of emerging generative AI opportunities, and a threat in the sense that the low level of visibility into its monetization roadmap could be a limiting factor for the stock’s near-term upside potential, especially as Palantir’s larger competitors in the field have already started to report tangible results from new AI technology deployments.Fundamental ConsiderationsWe view the winding down of Palantir’s Strategic Commercial Contract revenues, alongside the currently cautious enterprise IT spending environment as a key risk to commercial segment sales. This is further exacerbated by the unpredictability of government contract wins and lumpiness in related revenue recognition – particularly in core U.S. operations. Related risks remain prominent as observed through the sequential decline of commercial revenue during the second quarter, which would have been a gain if it were not for the drastic drop in sales relevant to Palantir’s SPAC investment agreements as management had previous cautioned.Meanwhile, sequential deceleration in government revenues, dragged primarily by U.S. declines despite acceleration in the UK, continue to highlight the impact of unpredictable timing associated with contract renewals / expansion and fulfillment. The challenge is further highlighted by the double-digit percentage y/y decline in total contract value to $642 million (despite management’s selective focus on the 62% sequential growth) and flat total remaining deal value of $3.4 billion from the first quarter, raising concerns over potentially waning strength in Palantir’s core government business.Taken together, we view management’s tightened revenue guidance of $2.212 billion for full year 2023, which falls only slightly above the midpoint of previously guided full year sales between $2.18 billion to $2.23 billion, as adequately reflective of the near-term growth uncertainties. Specifically, in our base case forecast, we are expecting commercial revenue to total $236.9 million in the current period, and $243.0 million in the fourth quarter, taking the full year 2023 estimated total to $947.8 million. This would represent decelerated growth in 2H23 of 17% y/y, compared with 20% in 2H22. The assumption takes into consideration the commercial segment’s effective land and expand strategy, which is not only evident in rapid adoption of AIP among existing enterprise partners, but also revenue expansion from its largest U.S. commercial customers:We had over two dozen U.S. commercial customers that brought in more than $1 million in revenue each during last quarter alone and we’re seeing outsized growth from our newest customers, 54% of the U.S. commercial revenue, excluding strategic commercial contracts is from customers that have started since the beginning of 2021 with nearly all of the year-over-year growth coming from those same customers. We expect this trend to continue.Source: Palantir 2Q23 Earnings Call TranscriptThis would be offset by ongoing declines in Strategic Commercial Contract revenues, which management is expecting to fall from $19 million in the second quarter to between $14 million and $16 million in the current period, with further reductions in the fourth quarter.AuthorAuthorOver the longer-term, ramping up monetization of AIP, alongside continued land and expansion for adoption of existing commercial platforms would be critical to driving reacceleration in growth. This would also be key to ensuring sustainable expansion of cash flows underpinning the stock’s upside potential. But considering limited visibility into AIP’s monetization roadmap, we remain cautious on Palantir’s previous guide for achieving $4 billion in revenue by 2025, which would require annual growth of more than 30% over the next two years – a long shot from a more reasonable pace of growth in the teens to 20% range, considering its current demand environment.AuthorAuthorOn the government front, we are forecasting revenue growth in the teens to low-20% range exiting 2023. This considers strong acceleration in government revenue during the second half of 2022, which could potentially make a tough comparison headed into the second half of 2023 – especially taken together with the unpredictable nature of contract wins and performance timelines.AuthorAuthorWe expect Palantir’s shift mix to eventually be commercial-heavy over the longer-term, especially as the company doubles down on its international and industry modularization go-to-market strategy. Taken together, total revenue is expected to grow at a mid-teens CAGR through 2031.AuthorAuthorOn the plus side, management’s commitment to maintaining GAAP profitability through 2023 remains durable, as GAAP operating income remains positive on prudent cost management – particularly in reducing share-based compensation spend. Although management expects opex spend and talent costs to increase in the current period, in line with Palantir’s historical timeline for onboarding its “new grad cohort of world-class technical talent”, we expect adjusted gross margin to stay in the 80% range, and adjusted operating margin in the mid-20% range exiting 2023. The effectiveness of cost optimization efforts implemented earlier in the year is expected to drive continued durability to Palantir’s GAAP profitability, as corroborated by management’s guide for as much as $139 million in adjusted operating income, which excludes SBC.AuthorHowever, we are staying conservative about management’s guide for $576 million in full year 2023 adjusted operating income, as it would require a meaningful jump in opex reductions, alongside outsized topline expansion in the fourth quarter. This makes a difficult scenario to underwrite, given lingering uncertainties to the broader enterprise IT spending environment, the persistent wind-down of Strategic Commercial Contract revenues, lumpiness in the government business as corroborated by modest sequential expansion of total deal value and remaining performance obligations, as well as low visibility into the near-term AIP monetization roadmap.AuthorValuation ConsiderationsAuthorTaking into consideration Palantir’s cash flow projections in conjunction with the foregoing fundamental analysis, we are maintaining our base case price target for the stock at $14. The discounted cash flow analysis assumes an implied perpetual growth rate of 3.5% on cash flows in line with our previous discussion, considering no significant change to visibility on AIP’s monetization roadmap and stabilizing growth in the existing business. The WACC applied also remains at about 10%, in line with Palantir’s risk profile and current capital structure buoyed by stable cash flows generated to sustain longer-term growth investments. This is corroborated by the recently announced $1 billion share buyback program which underscores the company’s commitment to and confidence in generating long-term value.AuthorAuthorIn the upside scenario, we expect stronger-than-expected government revenue growth in line with second half acceleration observed in the prior year after a tepid first half. The upside scenario also anticipates greater visibility into the near-term monetization of AIP – particularly for the commercial segment – ahead of AIPCon 2.0 coming September, which would help improve Palantir’s profitability and, inevitably, cash flows underpinning its valuation prospects. While anticipated eligibility for being admitted to the S&P 500 next quarter would potentially trigger a rally in the stock, it is unlikely to be a structural multiple expansion factor, with focus still on the company’s fundamental performance outlook. Our bull case PT is set at $19, which considers projected cash flows taken in conjunction with the upside scenario fundamental analysis, while keeping key valuation assumptions (e.g. 10% WACC; 3.5% estimated perpetual growth rate) unchanged.Meanwhile, the downside scenario assumes further deterioration in the enterprise IT spending environment, exacerbating the downward drag from sputtering Strategic Commercial Contract revenues. This is in line with a continued cautious tone over lengthened deal cycles and “general apprehension on spending priorities” in the latest earnings season across the software sector. Our downside PT remains at $9. Considering the uncertain rate environment, further monetary policy tightening could also add incremental weight on the discount rate and dull the allure of Palantir’s (and the broader software peer group’s) projected future cash flows, representing an incremental multiple compression risk in the downside scenario.The Bottom LineComing out of the second quarter earnings season, Palantir’s outlook remains mixed, especially with market confidence in its earlier-than-expected achievement of GAAP profitability now taken over by uncertainties to its growth trajectory. Although AIP has helped the Palantir stock participate in AI peer multiple expansion tailwinds this year, the new solution’s lacking monetization roadmap is finally catching up. While we remain optimistic that the deployment of AIP is a value accretive factor for the stock, the ultimate realization of pent-up upside potential will depend on tangible monetization of the new solution","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":210314914414720,"gmtCreate":1692371120839,"gmtModify":1692371130477,"author":{"id":"3586515468962759","authorId":"3586515468962759","name":"ShawnTan1978","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04f0102b6947598a9fd554679922a9f8","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3586515468962759","authorIdStr":"3586515468962759"},"htmlText":"I sold my palantir at $19.. entered again at $14.8","listText":"I sold my palantir at $19.. entered again at $14.8","text":"I sold my palantir at $19.. entered again at $14.8","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/210314914414720","repostId":1194566886,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":210314287607896,"gmtCreate":1692371064598,"gmtModify":1692371069463,"author":{"id":"3586515468962759","authorId":"3586515468962759","name":"ShawnTan1978","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04f0102b6947598a9fd554679922a9f8","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3586515468962759","authorIdStr":"3586515468962759"},"htmlText":"in less than 6 months Palantir will hit $24. I can't tell you much but but take my word for it.&nbsp;","listText":"in less than 6 months Palantir will hit $24. I can't tell you much but but take my word for it.&nbsp;","text":"in less than 6 months Palantir will hit $24. I can't tell you much but but take my word for it.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/210314287607896","repostId":1194566886,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":28,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":3,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}