New Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap

seekingalpha2021-03-19

Summary It's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities. Last October, I wrote a popular article providing...

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Tomji
·2021-04-16
Long read warning.
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爱炒股的程序员
·2021-03-23
好多字啊。。。。
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w8w8
·2021-03-23
Such a long post news zzzzz
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NanOo
·2021-03-23
Tesla is the king but too much cash need to buy 100 share..i think i will buy F, 100 share and just leave it
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4ZOEYS
·2021-03-23
Too long to finish, so what is the best buynow?
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股勇者
·2021-03-23
Is there a web-based for this article? Link pls. Its so hard to see those graphs on the mobile phone.
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- Jon777:
  Help comment
  2021-03-23
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AHLONG
·2021-03-23
Looooooong article
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MJ89
·2021-03-23
The Future
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Leon_Sze
·2021-03-23
Good
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Kiteflying
·2021-03-23
I think hybrid ev will come through as compared to full ev
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- Tomji:
  Yes i think u r right. the geospace is not ready. EV can only be concentrated in the urban enviroment For now. ruals areas will have trouble equiping
  2021-03-23
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HockLai
·2021-03-23
[財迷]
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Ericlam
·2021-03-23
Tough competition in EV,but I believe in Xpeng will be doing good.Hope so in China.
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- yung:
  agree
  2021-03-23
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JFZW
·2021-03-23
??
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JX0511
·2021-03-23
like my comment
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- Kah:
  Pls like and comment
  2021-03-23
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YCLim
·2021-03-23
Still have trends?
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- JKGan:
  ok
  2021-04-22
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lks
·2021-03-23
I go for EV ETF $Digital River, Inc.(DRIV)$
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J355
·2021-03-23
EV anyone?
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- Ericlam:
  Yes
  2021-03-23
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Sheryl85
·2021-03-23
good article
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- Sheryl85:
  [强]
  2021-03-23
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- potatochip:
  Yeah!
  2021-03-23
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Wallstrtbets
·2021-03-23
EV with self charging battery.
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AndrewL
·2021-03-23
Nice article. Like & comment. Thx.
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- Kah:
  Pls like and comment
  2021-03-23
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Many new EV companies entered the market, most of them through SPACs. Valuations fluctuated wildly, and there has been a great deal of publicity around these companies.\nThis new updated EV investment roadmap is greatly expanded. In addition to updating the strategies and progress of companies previously discussed, I expanded the number of companies covered. This article also groups EV companies into their primary markets, enabling better comparisons and evaluation of market opportunities. In addition, it includes a comparative valuation chart showing every company's market cap with a comparison to projected revenue, where possible. This takes advantage (good or bad) of looking at the long-term revenue forecasts provided in SPAC mergers that public companies can't make.\nIn addition to the EV manufacturers discussed here, there are also EV investment opportunities in charging station companies, battery manufacturers, and battery materials companies. These were covered in the original roadmap and may also be updated in a later article.\nApproximately 2 million EVs were sold in 2019, and although the number declined along with all auto sales in 2020, it is forecasted to increase in 2021 and reach 8-10 million by 2025. Some forecast that EV sales will be greater than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2030, or even earlier. The automobile market appears to be moving toward a historical transformation, and exceptional investment gains can be made by anticipating new emerging industries and investing in the eventual winners of those new industries. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)are obvious examples. Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to create a new emerging industry.\nThere are also significant risks. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to be released in the next three years, which will drive rapid growth in EV sales. However, the expected sales from these new models, as well as the increasing expectations from Tesla, most likely exceed the total projected market. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the companies covered here won't exist five years from now. It reminds me of the internet bubble of the late 1990s when scores of internet-based companies went public with little or no revenue. Almost all of these failed within three years -- however, a couple, including Amazon, went on to enormous success.\nEVs provide a major new investment opportunity with high risks. To succeed, you need to have a clear EV investment roadmap.\nSo, how can you invest in this new emerging market? The EV landscape is complex and investment opportunities are varied. While Tesla is the unquestioned leader in EVs, some consider it overvalued and unlikely to show exceptional returns to new investors. The current U.S. legacy automakers are committed to introducing many new EVs in the next few years, and they have some entrenched advantages with volume manufacturing capabilities, a dealer infrastructure, and loyal customers. There are exciting new EV start-ups in the U.S. that have come public this year, mostly through Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), and there are several interesting publicly traded Chinese EV manufacturers.\nThis new roadmap for EV investment classifies companies into three primary markets segments:\n\nTheConsumer Retailsegment includes EVs sold to consumers individually, such as SUVs, pickup trucks, sedans, etc.\nTheCommercial Deliverysegment includes local delivery EV vans and trucks sold to fleets.\nTheMedium- and Long-Haul Truckingsegment includes heavier Class 4 - Class 8 trucks, as well as special industrial vehicles.\n\nIn addition, it categorizesLegacy ManufacturersandChinese EV Companies. This enables investors to evaluate investment opportunities by considering unique opportunities within each market segment.\nThere is an enormous amount of investment optimism for EVs, and retail investors have been aggressively buying into EV stocks with seemingly no regard for valuation. Then there is the additional challenge of valuing companies with no revenue, especially those coming public through SPACs. So, valuation is an important investment consideration.\nSo let's start by looking at an overview of comparative EV valuations.\nEV Investment Valuation Overview\nThe following chart summarizes valuations for 23 EV companies, including several legacy companies. For SPACs, market cap estimates are computed using the pro forma number of shares at closing, otherwise using the valuation of the SPAC prior to closing drastically underestimates the valuation, which may be misleading to novice investors. Price/Sales ratios (market cap divided by revenue) are used to compare valuations. As a benchmark, current P/S ratios vary. For example, auto and truck companies have a ratio of 2.7X. Software companies have the highest ratios of over 10X.\nIn the chart, companies that currently have revenue show current P/S ratios. Where projections are available, projected P/S ratios are computed. A note of caution, however. Many of the EV companies came public through SPACs and published their projections (which public companies cannot do), and many of these are likely to prove unrealistic.\nAll of the longer-term revenue projections come from the company (C) forecasts with a SPAC. Some of these may turn out to be accurate, not many are most likely unrealistic. Some, like Lucid, Faraday, and Arrival forecast hitting more than $10 billion in revenue in a few years, when it took Tesla more than 10. Things are different now and they might achieve these, but they could also find that it will take longer to complete development, ramp up production, and create enough customer demand. Many companies may also find that there will be significant capital requirements to achieve this type of growth, and shareholders will be diluted.\n\nTesla, the \"gold standard\" in EVs, has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, which many people believe is overvalued. Its market cap is approximately 20X 2020 revenue and 10X estimated 2022 revenue.\nTesla (TSLA)\nIn the U.S., and to a lesser extent in China, Tesla is the dominant EV provider. It has approximately 60% of the U.S. EV market and about 20% of the market in China. I own a Tesla and love it, but an investment in Tesla stock requires getting comfortable with its valuation. Tesla has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, although declining lately, which some consider still overvalued while others see upside potential.\nThe investment opportunity with Tesla is based on the expectation that it will continue to dominate the EV market, or at least maintain significant market share, despite much greater competition from the expected introduction of hundreds of new EV models in the next few years.\nThere is a great deal already published about Tesla, so I'll move on.\nLegacy Automakers\nSome people think that the legacy automakers will simply fade away. Historically, that was the case in some other industries, but it is not going to happen to most automakers. They are not standing still waiting to become obsolete. Most have aggressive strategies to replace ICE vehicles with EVs. GM plans to invest $27 billion and build and launch as many as 30 new EV models by 2025. Ford plans to invest $29 billion in EVs by 2025 and launch as many as 16 EVs in the next two years. Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY)has also committed billions to develop new EVs.\nThe competitive advantage that legacy automakers have in selling their new EVs is their dealer network. Will new EV customers prefer to continue going to their regular auto dealer to buy their new EV?\nAlmost all legacy automakers worldwide are developing and launching EVs including Volkswagen, Peugeot, Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi, Hyundai/Kia. Let's look a little more closely at GM and Ford as the leaders in the U.S.\nGeneral Motors (GM)\nGM has committed to introducing 20 new electric vehicles by 2023, including EVs across Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC, and Buick. It recently announced that it has already sold out the first-year production of its Hummer electric pickup. By mid-decade, it expects to sell a million EVs per year in its two largest markets: North America and China. As a reference point, Tesla reported deliveries of 367,500 vehicles globally in 2019.\nGM has a solid platform strategy for its EVs. It plans on building its EVs using five interchangeable drive units and three different motors from its Ultium Drive System platform. Ultium energy options range from 50 to 200 kWh, which could enable an estimated range of up to 400 miles. Most of its EVs will have 400-volt battery packs and up to 200 kW fast-charging capability while the truck platform will have 800-volt battery packs and 350 kW fast-charging capabilities.\nThe key building blocks of the Ultium battery system are large-scale, high-energy cells. Engineered in partnership with LG Energy Solutions, they use both advanced chemistry and a smart cell design that's optimized for a broad portfolio of EVs. GM engineers and scientists are actively researching and testing new elements in battery chemistry to lower costs and improve charge times. Ultium can contain either vertically- or horizontally-stacked cells to integrate into vehicle design: vertically for trucks, SUVs, and crossovers, or horizontally for cars and performance vehicles. As new chemistry is developed and becomes available, the battery management system could digitally update the modules.\nGM also has other EV opportunities with its BrightDrop commercial EV service and its Cruise subsidiary. BrightDrop will not just sell delivery EVs, it will provide an entire service platform for commercial delivery customers. Its set of electric delivery vehicles starts with the EV600 and includes the BrightDrop EP1, a pod-like electric pallet. SeeGeneral Motors' Aggressive EV/AV Strategies May Payoff Big.\nWith its highest stock price of $61.65, GM's current market cap is approximately $89 billion, increasing primarily because of its progress with EVs. This approximately 3X valuation in 2018, but still only 13% of Tesla.\nFord (F)\nFord is also investing heavily in EVs. It just introduced the Mustang Mach-E, a battery-powered crossover with sports car styling, and plans to introduce an all-electric version of its best-selling F-150 pickup later this year. Also, planned is an electric edition of the full-size Transit van, which has been popular in the commercial delivery market. Ford has confirmed plans to build a luxury Lincoln crossover on a battery-powered platform provided by Rivian. The automaker also plans to introduce two new midsize electric crossovers, one each for the Ford and Lincoln brands by 2023.\nMustang Mach-E. Source: Ford\nFord's market cap is approximately $51 billion, twice its previous market cap, and also increasing.\nConsumer Retail EV Companies\nThe consumer retail market has some unique characteristics for new EV companies. Sales are made individually, not in fleets. This diversifies the risk upon launch because only a sufficient number of customers need to be attracted to the new EV. A wave of popularity can provide terrific momentum.\nHowever, the lack of a dealer network can be an impediment. Selling EVs directly to consumers instead of through dealers is prohibited in most states. By law, auto manufacturers can't compete with franchised dealers. These are laws that go back many decades to protect dealers. This can be a major impediment for new companies without established independent dealer franchises. So, new AV companies. like Tesla, need to sell their vehicles online. Tesla has successfully done this, but it took a lot of work and time. Lack of a dealer network also creates impediments in service.\nIn addition, over the next 4-5 years, autonomous capabilities will be increasingly important to luxury vehicles. This may prove to be a challenge to start-up EV companies because they can't afford to develop this technology.\nLet's look closer at the alternative consumer retail EV investments.\nLucid Motors (CCIV)\nLucid was founded in 2007 under the name Atieva and originally focused on building electric vehicle batteries and powertrains for other vehicle manufacturers. The company rebranded itself as Lucid Motors in October 2016 and shifted its strategy to develop an all-electric, high-performance, luxury vehicle. Shortly after that, it encountered financial difficulties and struggled to get short-term funding. In 2018 it raised more than $1 billion in investment, primarily from Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund, and gave up a majority of the company.\nLucid Motors reached an agreement to become a publicly-traded company through a merger with the SPAC Churchill Capital IV Corp., in one of the largest deals SPAC EV deals. The combined company, in which Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund will continue to be the largest shareholder, had a transaction equity value of $11.75 billion (for $10/share). At the same time, it closed a PIPE investment priced at $15 a share, giving it an implied pro forma equity value of $24 billion. Rumors about this deal circulated before the transaction was formally announced, making it one of the most anticipated SPAC deals. The hype and speculation drove up the stock price of Churchill Capital IV Corp. from its opening price of $10 a share to almost $60. I believe that some of this may have been driven by novice SPAC investors who didn't realize that the valuation of CCIV didn't include the eventual valuation of Lucid. The share price dropped more than 30% after the details of the deal were announced. It's also likely that Lucid renegotiated the terms of the merger based on the price jump.\nThe company's first product is the Lucid Air, a well-equipped luxury electric vehicle that features 406 miles of projected range and 480 horsepower with a starting price of $77,400, or $69,900 after the U.S. Federal Tax Credit of $7,500. This new Lucid Air model is positioned as a high-performance, ultra-efficient luxury EV sedan in a line of future vehicles that are expected to include Lucid Air Touring, Grand Touring, and Dream Edition versions.\nThe company plans to begin production and deliveries of the Lucid Air in North America in the second half of 2021. Previously the company aimed to begin deliveries earlier in 2021. It intends to sell the car in Europe in 2022, followed by China in 2023. Lucid vehicles will be produced at its new factory in Casa Grande, Arizona. The company plans to expand the factory in phases in the coming years to have the capacity to produce 365,000 units per year at scale. The initial phase of the $700 million factory construction was completed late last year and will have the capacity to produce 30,000 vehicles a year.\nLucid also apparently has a commitment to build an assembly plant in Saudi Arabia, which was rumored to be a condition of the $1 billion investment from the Saudi public fund. The Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund also provided $600 million in bridge financing and invested in the SPAC deal as well. So, while this assembly plant may be expensive and may not be critical, it will most likely need to happen.\nLucid has ambitious plans to achieve $14 billion in revenue in 2025, and its current stock price at $29.17, which gives it a market cap of more than $46 billion, may already reflect those ambitions. Its market cap is roughly the same as Ford.\nFisker (FSR)\nFisker, which had its origins with Fisker Automotive, is an interesting story that ended in bankruptcy. Henrik Fisker originally co-founded Fisker Automotive in 2007. He was responsible for designing many premium cars such as the Aston Martin. Subsequently, Fisker Automotive had to deal with a Tesla lawsuit against Fisker Automotive alleging it stole Tesla's technology, a controversial $528.7 million conditional loan from the Department of Energy, a recall of its battery produced by A123, and the loss of several hundred vehicles in hurricane Sandy. Henrik Fisker resigned in March 2013 because of disagreements over business strategy and in November 2013, Fisker filed its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case.\nHowever, Henrik Fisker retained the Fisker brand and trademarks, and in 2016 he started another electric vehicle company named Fisker Inc. with the Fisker brand and trademarks. In 2019, Fisker shifted from developing a sports car with a solid-state battery to the Ocean SUV featuring a lithium-ion battery, which it later abandoned for a solid-state battery.\nFisker is positioning itself in a unique segment for those who want the most environmentally friendly EV. While this may be an early growth segment for EVs, it's difficult to estimate its eventual competitive advantage and the size of this environmentally-friendly market segment.\nThe Ocean is a crossover made of recycled metal and plastic with an expected base price of $37,499, and an expected lease of less than $400 a month. Fisker's plan is essentially a lease-only business model that lets customers keep a vehicle for years or return it at any time. It aims to source motors, batteries, and other components from technical partnerships with automakers and will outsource production from existing auto plants. Fisker is currently taking reservations at $250 for the Ocean. It also announced an agreement with Foxconn to jointly develop a vehicle pioneering a new market segment to be sold globally under the Fisker brand commencing in Q4 2023. at the end of 2022. Production will start at Magna Steyr's manufacturing facilities in Europe. At the end of February 2021, it had 12,467 cancellable reservations.\nFisker Ocean. Source: Fisker\nFisker went public using a SPAC (Spartan Energy). The original combination with SPAQ in October 2020 was valued at $2.9 billion with a cash investment of approximately $1 billion. The stock currently trades at approximately $21 per share, after reaching a high of $28.50, from the original price of $10, which is a market cap of $4.6 billion. Fisker projects $3.3 billion in revenue in 2023. It had almost $1 billion in cash at the end of 2020 and expected to use almost half of this in 2021: $250 million on operating expenses and $250 million in capital investments. If the Ocean is delayed into 2023, Fisker risks missing its revenue objective and will potentially need additional cash to complete development and launch.\nFaraday Future (PSAC)\nFaraday Future was originally established in May 2014 by Chinese businessman Jia Yueting. It is headquartered in Los Angeles and has offices in Silicon Valley, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu. Faraday Future also had a turbulent history. In 2016, it struggled financially, and in 2017 some key executives departed over a dispute about financial issues. They later founded Canoo.\nIn December 2018 the company announced layoffs due to a cash crunch and financial troubles. The company's founder Jia Yueting filed for personal bankruptcy in the United States' federal court in Delaware on October 14, 2019. Following Jia's personal bankruptcy, he decided to step down from his role as CEO of Faraday Future in order to assume a new position as the Chief Product and User Officer. He was replaced as CEO by Carsten Breitfeld, the former CEO at rival electric vehicle startup Byton.\nSomehow, Faraday was able to raise $2.3 billion in private funding over 5 rounds from a variety of investors. In early 2018, it received $1.5 billion in funding from an undisclosed investor from Hong Kong.\nFaraday's flagship product offering will be the FF 91, featuring 1,050 HP, 0-60 mph in less than 2.4 seconds, zero gravity seats with the largest 60-degree reclining angles, and a user experience designed to create a mobile, connected, and luxurious living space. The FF 91 is targeted to launch in 2022.\nFF 91. Source: Faraday Future\nIts strategic partners include one of China's top three OEMs and a critical Chinese city, which the company believes will help establish its presence in the Chinese vehicle market.\nFaraday Future plans several cars based on its Variable Platform Architecture. FF 91 is the first production vehicle and flagship model. Pricing will range between $120,000 and upwards of $200,000, which places it against formidable opponents. Faraday Future is already looking forward to expanding its range with a pair of smaller models named FF 81 and FF 71. The FF 81 is planned to be priced at $75,000 to 95,000 with a 2023 release. The FF 71 is planned to be priced at $45,000 to $65,000 with a planned release of 2024.\nThe Primary Manufacturing Facility for FF 91 is in Hanford, CA with contract manufacturing for future models in Gunsan, South Korea.\nFaraday Future is planning high-Level automation with a Level-3 capable system using a redundant safety architecture based on NVIDIA Xavier System-on-a-chip. It will be capable of highway auto-drive and hardware ready for advanced auto-drive. It is targeting full autonomous valet parking & summon in any parking lot or structure. Eventually, it expects full auto-drive, including full 360˚ sensor coverage for advanced auto-drive & auto-park features.\nIn January 2021, Faraday Future announced that the company would go public through a reverse merger with the special purpose acquisition company Property Solutions Acquisition Corp. (PSAC). The combined company will be valued at $3.4 billion. Faraday Future is expected to set up contract manufacturing operations in China through their partnership with Geely. Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn is also expected to serve as an additional strategic partner.\nFaraday Future projects $10.5 billion in revenue in 2024 and $21.5 billion in 2025. Revenue is expected to start in 2022 with the delivery of 2,400 vehicles for $504 million. Most likely these projections could prove to be optimistic. At a current stock price of approximately $12.80, it has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nLordstown Motors (RIDE)\nLordstown Motors based in Lordstown, Ohio, was originally founded in 2018 by Steve Burns, the former CEO of Workhorse Group. The company licensed technology from Workhorse in return for royalties and a 10% ownership. Lordstown is named after the famous GM Lordstown manufacturing plant, which it acquired in November 2019 in an unusual transaction. GM announced that it was closing the plant and was under a great deal of pressure for that decision. So, GM \"sold\" the plant to a company that was renamed Lordstown for an estimated $20 million that it loaned to the acquiring company. Subsequently, the sale was redefined to be part of a $75 million investment by GM, of which $50 million was an in-kind exchange for the plant.\nLordstown went public through the SPAC DiamondPeak Holdings Corp. in 2020. It currently has more than 400 employees.\nIts first product is the Lordstown Endurance, a full-sized EV pickup truck. Lordstown is positioning Endurance for the pickup fleet market segment. The expected price is $52,000+, and it claimed to have more than 100,000 pre-orders by January 2021. However, a recent research article published by a short seller claimed \"Our research has revealed that Lordstown's order book consists of fake or entirely non-binding orders, from customers that generally do not even have fleets of vehicles.\" Lordstown is disputing that article.\nIt believes the fleet pickup market segment is underserved with no current EV-focused competition. It estimates that the full-sized pick-up truck fleet market is 1.2 million vehicles per year in the U.S., but it's more fragmented than other truck fleets. Pickup \"fleets\" tend to be much smaller and local, so there may not be much of a market distinction for a small company buying several EV pickups from a traditional auto dealer. About half of the total U.S. pickup market is classified as fleet sales, meaning more than one.\nEven though Lordstown is targeting the commercial fleet market, it is a similar product to the Ford EV F-150. So I classify it in the consumer EV category. It is a class 2 vehicle. Lordstown also may enter the SUV market in the longer-term.\nThe Endurance will compete against future models from Rivian and Tesla, as well as Ford and GM in ICE pick-ups and their upcoming EV pick-ups. Ford plans on selling its EV F-150 in mid-2022. Initial production of the Endurance is expected in the second half of 2021, so it may have a short market advantage. Nevertheless, it forecasts selling 65,000 vehicles in 2023 and 107,000 in 2024. These estimates could be a large percentage of the EV pick-up market in those years.\nAt the SPAC merger, the implied valuation for Lordstown was $1.6 billion, including a $500 million PIPE and the $75 million by GM. Lordstown's financial projections appear to be aggressive. It projects to start shipping the Endurance in late 2021 with projected revenue in 2022 of $1.7 billion, increasing to $5.8 billion in 2024. Its stock price at approximately $13.60 values the company at a market cap of approximately $2.2 billion. The value of the company depends on the likelihood of achieving its projections.\nA fleet sales strategy makes sense for Lordstown since it would be too expensive to build a retail sales and service capability. However, it's not clear that this will become a distinct competitive advantage. Some small fleets may still prefer to buy their EV pickups from established local dealers with service capabilities.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nCanoo started as Evelozcity in 2017 and rebranded as Canoo in the spring of 2019. Canoo is a Los Angeles-based company that develops electric vehicles. It has over 350 employees. Canoo has designed a modular electric platform purpose-built to deliver maximum vehicle interior space, which is adaptable to support a wide range of vehicle applications for consumers and businesses. Canoo expects to launch its first consumer model in 2022, simply named the Canoo that will be available by subscription, followed shortly after by a multi-purpose delivery vehicle and a sports vehicle, each built off of the same underlying platform. Canoo went public using a SPAC (Hennessy Capital Acquisition) and now trades as GOEV.\nCanoo's all-electric skateboard-like platform is designed to support both consumer retail and commercial vehicle configurations. The EV leverages Canoo's flat skateboard architecture for a high level of usable interior space. Its commercial vehicle program, expected in 2023, addresses a projected $50B+ last-mile delivery market with an EV platform that maximizes cargo volume.\nHyundai Motor Group said it would jointly develop an electric vehicle platform with the company.\nCanoo's platform strategy is interesting. It could be used as an EV platform for custom fleets of delivery vehicles. It has no AV development, but it claims to be \"AV Ready\" which could be useful for AV companies wanting to build custom AV delivery fleets.\nIts all-electric multi-purpose delivery vehicle is expected to be priced starting at approximately $33,000. It is based on Canoo's proprietary electric platform and will be offered in two initial size variants, with others to follow. Limited availability will begin in 2022, with scaled production and launch planned for 2023. Customers can pre-order the multi-purpose delivery vehicle for a refundable deposit of $100 per vehicle\nIt plans to offer two multi-purpose delivery vehicles: the MPDV1 and the larger MPDV2. The first has a 200-foot cargo volume and a range of 130-200 miles. It offers more capacity than today's ICE delivery vehicles at an affordable price with urban mobility enabled by a space-efficient footprint. The vehicle is also designed to fit within many height-restricted areas like parking garages.\nThe MPDV2 has a cargo volume of 450 feet and a range of 90-190 miles. Its roof and step-in height enable individuals to easily walk-in the vehicle and accommodate a standing position while inside.\nThe original SPAC transaction provided approximately $600 million, with a pro forma equity value of approximately $2.4 billion. Like other SPAC mergers, its stock price has fluctuated. It currently trades at about $15.90 per share for a market cap of approximately $3.7 billion. Canoo projects $2.0 billion in revenue in 2025 from about $500 million in engineering services, $1.2 billion from its consumer vehicle subscriptions, and the remainder from its commercial program. Canoo expects revenue of more than $300 million in 2022 after the launch of its lifestyle consumer vehicle.\nSince its first products are aimed at consumers, as is most of its forecasted 2025 revenue, I categorize it primarily as a consumer EV company. However, I think the design of that Canoo vehicle may not attract enough customers. More importantly, its subscription service way of selling its EV to consumers is risky. I think it has more potential in the commercial market, however, a dual strategy (consumer and commercial) is challenging. I like its skateboard platform design and that could prove to be a competitive advantage.\nRivian\nAlthough not yet public, I include Rivian because it has plans for an IPO as soon as Sept 2021, although it could slip into 2022. There are rumors that the company is targeting a market valuation of approximately $50B. Rivian has already raised more than $8 billion to date from Amazon, Ford, T. Rowe Price, and others.\nRivian has developed and vertically integrated a connected electric platform that can be flexibly applied to a range of applications, including the company's adventure products, as well as B2B products such as the Amazon last-mile delivery vans. The company's initial products, the R1T and R1S, provide a combination of performance, off-road capability, and utility. These vehicles will be produced at Rivian's manufacturing plant in Normal, Ill., with customer deliveries expected to begin in summer 2021. The launch of the R1S three-row electric SUV will follow in August.\nAdditional lower-priced models are being planned. The expected R2 series would include at least two smaller electric vehicles to coincide with the smaller platform, then another platform for R3.\nCommercial Delivery EV Companies\nEV truck companies differ based on the type of truck they are developing. The technology and markets are very different, so I separate them into two categories. The first category includes commercial delivery vehicles.\nCompanies making EV delivery vehicles have some major advantages that could make them good investments. First, delivery vehicles typically travel less than 250 miles during a day, so they can be conveniently recharged overnight. Secondly, they are typically sold in large quantities to fleets. This means that building a retail sales infrastructure is not necessary. It only requires a small salesforce. In addition, maintenance can also be provided at the fleet's operational center, so not as many service centers are required.\nThe disadvantage in this market is that there are a relatively small number of customers that buy in large volumes, so if the EV manufacturer can't get enough large customers, they may not be able to stay in business. GM estimates the combined market opportunity for parcel and food delivery, as well as reverse logistics, in the U.S. will be more than $850 billion by 2025.\nThe commercial market is expected to be a major growth area for EVs. Other start-up automakers like Rivian as well as legacy automakers such as Ford, Daimler, and GM have announced plans to enter the segment. GM recently announced its BrightDrop ecosystem for commercial customers that includes an all-new electric delivery van, the EV600 available by the end of 2021, as well as an integrated autonomous pallet and related services.\nThis group of EV companies focuses primarily on commercial delivery. In general, these are in the light-duty trucks category, although it also includes some medium-duty trucks. This generally includes the following commercial truck classes:\n\nClass 1: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 0-6,000 pounds or 0-2,722 kilograms.\nClass 2: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 6,001-10,000 pounds or 2,722-4,536 kilograms.1\nClass 3: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 10,001-14,000 pounds or 4,536-6,350 kilograms.\n\nIt can also include somewhat larger medium-duty EV delivery trucks:\n\nClass 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.\nClass 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.\n\nEV delivery trucks also have an advantage over ICE vehicles because they can have a greater delivery storage space. Smaller buses and transit vehicles are also included in this category.\nLast-mile package delivery is not an immediate-term autonomous vehicle opportunity because it requires a delivery person to be on the truck anyway.\nWorkhorse Group (WKHS)\nWorkhorse has been a public company for ten years. Originally AMP Electric Vehicles, it was established in 2007 as a developmental-stage vehicle electrification company, focusing on conversions. AMP Electric Vehicles went public in 2010 trading on the OTC market under the AMPD symbol. When the economic benefits of conversion became less certain, it pivoted away from passenger vehicles and began to focus on electrifying commercial vehicles. AMP acquired the Workhorse brand and the Workhorse custom chassis assembly plant in Union City. In March of 2013, AMP formally changed its name to Workhorse Group Incorporated.\nThe Company designs and builds a last-mile delivery electric vehicle. The C-Series EVs cover the larger size of commercial delivery vehicles in Classes 3-5. As part of its solutions, it also develops cloud-based, real-time telematics performance monitoring systems. It sells its vehicles to fleet customers directly and through its primary distributor, Ryder Systems. It is currently focused on bringing the C-Series electric delivery truck to market and fulfilling the existing backlog of orders.\nThe C-Series looks like a viable EV replacement for the 350,000 last-mile delivery vehicles sold in the U.S. annually. It recently announced an increased driving range from 100 miles to 160, which should open more market opportunities. It has a viable short-term go-to-market strategy selling fleets to delivery companies. It currently has test vehicles with UPS, DHL, FedEx, Amazon, and Walmart.\nWorkhorse recently lost out on the United States Postal Services Next Generation Delivery Vehicle project, however, it is in the process of challenging this decision. Additionally, its investment in Lordstown also provides an indirect investment opportunity. On November 7, 2019, the Company entered a transaction with Lordstown Motors to grant LMC a perpetual and worldwide license to certain intellectual property relating to its W-15 electric pickup truck platform and related technology in exchange for royalties, equity interest (approximately 10%) in LMC, and other considerations. This was a $320 million asset for Workhorse at the end of 2020.\nWorkhorse received a significant increase in orders in Q4/2020 but built just seven trucks in the fourth quarter due to production systems and supply chain issues. Workhorse plans to continue to take it slow, striving to build three of its composite-body battery-electric trucks a day in March with a plan to reach 10 trucks a day by the end of June. This makes its original 2021 goal of producing 1,800 trucks unlikely. It partnered with Hitachi and Hitachi Capital America (\"HCA\") to improve the Company's manufacturing, operational, and supply chain capabilities as well as to develop a national dealer network to support Workhorse's sales with vehicle financing options for both dealers and customers.\nWorkhorse has a market cap of approximately $1.9 billion. While Workhorse had ongoing revenue, unlike many other new EV companies, its revenue is still insignificant. It had a revenue of $1.4 million in 2020 and $377,000 in 2019. It has a backlog of over 8,000 vehicles but doesn't expect to be able to build many of those in 2021. It raised $270 million in capital over several financings, providing the Company with additional capital to build its backlog. It had cash of $215 million as of March 1, 2021. Because Workhorse is a traditional public company, it hasn't made long-term financial projections like SPAC-based companies.\nElectric Last Mile (FIII)\nElectric Last Mile, based in Troy Michigan, was founded by Jason Luo, former CEO of Ford China before it was acquired by China's Ningbo Joyson Electronic for $920 million in 2016, including James Taylor, former CEO of GM's Hummer brand and former CEO of electric car maker Karma Automotive. Taylor serves as the company's top executive with Luo as the company's chairman.\nThe company plans to launch a small electric delivery van (class 1-2), called the UD-1, in the third quarter of 2021, and then introduce an Urban Utility vehicle (Class 2-3) in 2022. These are expected to compete with Workhorse, Rivian, Canoo, as well as the Ford eTransit and the GMC BV1, none of which is expected to be a Class 1 vehicle.\nThe company says it has 30,000 preorders for its van, representing more than $1 billion in sales. Electric Last Miles vehicles will be based on Sokon's commercial van made in China through a joint venture with Dongfeng Automobile Co Ltd. in order to accelerate development time.\nElectric Last Mile (ELM) is expected to manufacture the vans in a former General Motors Co. Hummer plant in Mishawaka, Ind., that the company is acquiring from China's Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co. Ltd. The plant has the capacity to produce 100,000 vehicles annually with plans to build approximately 4,000 UD-1 vans by the end of 2021. The UD-1 has a starting price of $32,500 and a range of 150 miles. The battery for the vehicle is expected to be supplied by the Chinese battery company CATL.\nELM believes that it has a competitive advantage because its first vehicle, the ELM Urban Delivery, is scheduled to be available in 2021. It is based on a proven, existing platform developed and sold by Sokon Group in the Asian market, where there are 30,000 of these electric delivery vehicles driving 1.5 million miles every day. At the close of the business combination, ELM will be an independent, U.S. company producing electric vehicles in the U.S. with Sokon Group providing access to its know-how, parts supply, and field and service data.\nELM expects that the Urban Delivery vehicle will be the first electric delivery vehicle coming to market in the class 1 category (GVW of 6,000 lbs or less) in the U.S. It will also have 35% more carrying volume compared to similar ICE delivery vehicles, a critical part of the value proposition. It also anticipates that its price and greater carrying volume will allow it to take market share from the class 2 category of vehicles as well.\nIts crossover product portfolio strategy targets commercial delivery vehicles spanning from class 1 to class 3, which represents over 80% of the last mile market.\nELM anticipates $122 million in revenue in 2021, rapidly increasing to $3 billion in 2025. The price of FIII stock increased immediately following its announcement with Electric Last Mile, rising more than 40% to $14.50, but now it has dropped closer to the original deal price to $10.25 for a market cap of approximately $1.5 billion.\nGreenPower Motor Company (GP)\nGreenPower Motor Company Inc. is a Canadian battery-electric bus manufacturer with multiple models of high- and low-floor vehicles, including transit buses, school buses, and shuttles. GreenPower offers commercial vehicles for delivery, public transit, schools, vanpooling, micro-transit, shuttles, and is developing a capability of autonomous operation. It went public on August 28, 2020.\nIn 2014 GreenPower launched its first purpose-built, battery-electric bus, the EV350, 40-foot transit bus. GreenPower received its first order in 2017 for ten EV350s from the City of Porterville, California.\nGreenPower's electric buses are purpose-built and designed to be all-electric, allowing it to put the battery and propulsion system in optimized locations that provide weight and structural advantages. Its primary EV is the EV Star with more than 120 vehicles delivered. It comes in several variations:\n\nEV Star - Up to 19 passengers\nEV Star Plus - Up to 24 passengers\nEV Star ADA - Passenger and curbside lift for ADA\nEV Star Cargo - 5,000 pounds of load\nEV Star Cargo Plus - 570 cubic feet of cargo space.\n\nIts EV school bus seats up to 90 students and has a range of up to 150 miles.\nGreenPower had revenue of $13.5 million in 2020 It has about $21 million in cash. It's an interesting alternative since it is already shipping EVs, has revenue, and also has a lower market cap of less than $1 billion. Since it did a traditional IPO, it hasn't published longer-term financial forecasts.\nArrival (CIIC)\nArrival was founded in 2015 in London to make a variety of commercial electric vehicles. It has approximately 1,200 employees across 11 cities in 8 countries. In November 2020, Arrival and the SPAC CIIG entered into a business combination agreement with an implied valuation of $5.39 billion.\nArrival plans on releasing four commercial EVs over the next few years.\n\nQ4/2021: An electric bus for 8-125 passengers and a range of 240-400km\nQ3/2022: An electric delivery van with a payload of 975-2,000kg and a range of 150-340km\n2022: A larger electric van with a payload of 4,000 kg and a range of 190-400km\n2023: a small vehicle platform with a range of 100-300km.\n\nThis mix provides a nice diversified portfolio of EVs. Arrival claims to have received orders from UPS for 10,000 vans. It plans a unique flexible manufacturing approach using micro-factories with each projected to manufacture 10,000 vans per year. All of its vehicles use a modular skateboard electric platform.\nArrival ambitiously projects $14.1 billion in revenue in 2024. Half of that revenue is expected from delivery vans, 22% from buses, and the rest from the large van and its small vehicle platform. With CIIC's stock price at $24.80 per share, Arrival's current market cap is relatively high at approximately $15.0 billion. Justifying its market cap depends on its ability to release, sell, and produce its four commercial EVs.\nProterra (ACTC)\nProterra is a commercial electric vehicle company with over a decade of production experience. The Company has designed an end-to-end, flexible technology platform that claims to deliver higher performance and a low total cost of ownership to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end customers.\nProterra, Inc., was originally founded in Golden, Colorado, by Dale Hill in 2004. Later the company wanted to take the lead in creating zero-emission, U.S.-based transit buses. In 2010 it moved its manufacturing plant from Golden, Colorado to Greenville, South Carolina. In 2015, Proterra was awarded a $3 million grant from the California Energy Commission to fund the design, development, and construction of the company's battery-electric transit bus manufacturing line in the City of Industry, California. It moved its headquarters from Greenville, South Carolina, to Burlingame, California, in October 2015. Proterra raised more than $600 million in funding.\nIt is going public through the SPAC ArcLight (ACTC) with a pro forma valuation of $1.6 billion. Upon completion of the transaction, Proterra expects to have up to $825 million in cash to fund growth initiatives, including R&D and the expansion of its next-generation battery program.\nProterra has three complementary businesses:\n\nProterra Powered: Delivering battery systems and electrification solutions to commercial vehicle manufacturers\nProterra Transit:Providing an electric transit bus OEMs\nProterra Energy:Offering turnkey charging and energy management solutions.\n\nThe company's battery systems have been proven in more than 16 million service miles driven by its fleet of transit vehicles and validated through partnerships with commercial vehicle OEMs. Proterra has produced and delivered more than 300 megawatt-hours of battery systems, more than 550 heavy-duty electric transit buses, and installed 54 megawatts of charging systems.\nProterra expected $193 million of revenue in 2020, with an estimated $750 million in existing orders and backlog. It projects $2.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with about 1/3 coming from its Transit business, and 2/3 From Powered & Energy. At ACTC's current stock price of $17.85, Proterra has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nRivian\nRivian (see earlier description in consumer retail) will also compete in the commercial delivery market. It has been working with Amazon (a major investor) to build large electric delivery vans for Prime. Developed specifically for Amazon, a small fleet of Prime vans is on the road now, testing deliveries to customers and gathering feedback. In late fall, it could grow to a large fleet as Rivian ramps up the volume.\nThe EV range of 150 miles is tailored to Amazon's use cycle to optimize the size, weight, and cost of the commercial vehicle. Rivian has three sizes of batteries, but Amazon is starting with just one of them.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nSee the previous summary under consumer retail EV.\nMedium and Long-Haul Trucking EV Companies\nCompanies developing medium- and long-haul EV trucks face a more difficult challenge with battery range. These trucks haul much more weight than commercial delivery vehicles and because they are designed for long distances, they can't stop every 200-300 miles for recharging.\nFor this reason, many of these companies are using unique hybrid technologies for their trucks. The EV trucks in this category are primarily heavy-duty but also include some medium-duty trucks and specialty vehicles. A couple of the companies focus on retrofitting trucks to be electric.\nMedium-Duty Trucks\nThe medium-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 4, 5, and 6:\n\nClass 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.\nClass 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.\nClass 6: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 19,501-26,000 pounds or 8,846-11,793 kilograms.1\n\nHeavy-Duty Trucks\nThe heavy-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 7 and 8:\n\nClass 7: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 26,001 to 33,000 pounds or 11,794-14,969 kilograms.\nClass 8: This class of trucks has a GVWR of greater than 33,001 pounds or 14,969 kilograms and includes all tractor-trailers.\n\nThe Tesla Semi is a battery vehicle planned for a range of 300 or 500 miles and a speed of 60 MPH with 80,000 lbs of cargo. Tesla plans to start shipping the Semi later this year when it expects to have sufficient cell volume to meet its needs with the production of its 4680 battery pack.\nNikola(NASDAQ:NKLA)\nNikola has been a very controversial company. Founded in 2015, it originally had two different strategies. Its primary strategy is to lease fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) Class-8 heavy trucks and provide the refueling infrastructure to corporate customers. Its second strategy was to develop the Badger EV truck using GM technology.\nNikola originally merged with a SPAC to go public, at an enterprise value of approximately $3.3 billion. On June 6th, 2020, its market cap jumped to more than $30 billion, then later it dropped because of problems with its originally planned deal with GM.\nNikola originally expected a deal with General Motors that included the production of the Nikola Badger EV pickup truck. The proposed arrangement was that GM would take a $2 billion equity stake in Nikola and in return would engineer and produce the Badger. In November 2020, GM and Nikola scrapped the original arrangement. Now it appears that GM will supply Nikola with only its Hydrotec hydrogen fuel-cell technology to integrate into the EV manufacturer's commercial class 7 and class 8 zero-emission semi-trucks. So, the Badger is probably dead.\nNikola now sees semi-trucks as the company's \"core business\" and fuel cells as an increasingly important segment of the semi-truck market thanks to their efficiency in weight and consumption. It expects to begin testing by the end of 2021.\nIt has received pre-orders from Anheuser-Busch and a few other companies, but it doesn't expect deliveries until 2023. Hydrogen fueling stations are key to its strategy, both providing a source of revenue and necessary fueling infrastructure for the trucks to operate, but they also cost a lot. In its March 2020 investor deck, Nikola said a single station capable of fueling 210 trucks a day would cost $16.6 million. Its initial planned network of 700 stations would cost roughly $11.6 billion.\nNikola was also accused of misrepresentation, and its executive chairman and founder stepped down.\nAt the time of the SPAC merger, it projected an optimistic forecast of more than $3 billion in revenue by 2024, with a net income of $145 million. Most of that revenue was expected to come from its Badger truck, which is no longer in the plans. Yet its market cap is still almost $6 billion.\nHyliion (HYLN)\nHyliion, founded in 2015 in Austin, went public in October 2020 through the SPAC Tortoise Acquisition Corp. (SHLL). In March 2019, automotive parts manufacturer Dana Inc. made an equity investment into Hyliion, and together they are manufacturing and marketing Class 8 EVs to Dana's customers, including Volvo, Navistar, and Peterbilt.\nHyliion's strategy is unique, and a very different strategy from Nikola. Essentially it generates electricity onboard the truck using compressed natural gas (CNG). This should be a benefit for longer-range trucking. Hyliion's Hypertruck concept involves an all-electric drivetrain utilizing Dana's electric motor, inverter, and axle technologies. The truck's batteries are fueled by onboard tanks of CNG. With some 700 CNG stations already operating nationwide, it believes that there no need to build out expensive superchargers or hydrogen infrastructure.\nKuwait-based logistics company, Agility, has already placed an order for 1,000 Hypertrucks with initial deliveries targeted in 2022. Combined with a fully electric drivetrain and a natural gas-powered onboard generator to recharge the battery, the Hypertruck ERX will provide more than 1,000 miles of range.\nHyliion will eventually compete with Nikola (FCEV) and the Tesla battery-based Semi, but it plans to have a longer range and lower operating costs. Its HyperTruck ERX is expected to be available in 2021. It also has a hybrid-electric truck.\nThe combination with SHLL had an estimated market cap of about $1.5 billion, with approximately $530 million going to the company, including a $325 million fully committed PIPE. At approximately $13.50 per share, its current market cap is approximately $2.2 billion, significantly down from its peak. Hyliion projects $2 billion in revenue in 2024, which it claims is only about 2% of the addressable market.\nXL Fleet (XL)\nXL Fleet is a 10-year old company that went public through the SPAC Pivotal. XL is different because it provides fleet electrification modifications for ICE trucks across a wide range of vehicle classes (class 2-5) and types. It has over 200 of the largest commercial and municipal fleets as customers, with more than 3,200 XL systems deployed and over 130 million miles driven by customers to date. XL's customer base includes FedEx, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Verizon, the City of Boston, Seattle Fire Department, Yale University, and Harvard University.\nXL's business model is essentially retrofitting existing trucks to be hybrids and then later expanding into fully electric truck conversions. It claims to be creating a fully integrated platform for this. It remains to be seen if the retrofitting business will continue to grow or will it diminish when more trucks are designed and manufactured with EV capabilities.\nUnlike some other EV companies that have no revenue yet because they are still developing products, XL is more of a small company doing low-volume retrofits. It had $7.2 million in revenue in 2019, $21 million in 2020, and estimates $76 million in 2021, but it forecasts $1.3 billion in revenue in 2024 in its investor presentation. It plans to do this by expanding its product line from hybrid to plug-in hybrid to fully electric across a broader range of trucks. It claims to have a $220 million sales pipeline for the next 12 months.\nShort-seller, Muddy Waters, claimed after talking to former XL Fleet employees, that it believed the company significantly exaggerated its order backlog, that the return on investment for the company's products was likely negative, and that it would not be able to compete with big car makers on electrification. The company thoroughly refuted these claims.\nThe original enterprise valuation was approximately $1.4 billion at a $10 share price for the merger. Its price jumped by about 35% but has since gone back down to $12.40 for a market cap of about $1.8 billion. Although XL Fleet has revenue and other EV companies don't, this may not be an advantage. It appears to be a small company for many years that has gone public at a high valuation with grand plans. The risks are in its ability to make a jump from $76 million in 2021 to $1.3 billion in 2024, as well as the question about retrofitting being replaced by new EV trucks by then.\nXos (NGAC)\nXos Trucks specializes in the field of manufacturing fully electric commercial vehicles. It features a software platform that is designed to accommodate an extensive variety of medium-duty bodies, wheelbase, and range requirements up to 200 miles. It was founded in 2016 and headquartered in North Hollywood, California. It received $20 million of investment in 2020 and now is going public through a merger with the SPAC ExtGen Acquisition Corporation (NGAC) at an estimated proforma value of $1.965 billion.\nIts focus is on medium- and heavy-duty last mile and return-to-base segments (class 5/6, class 6/7, and class 7/8) commercial fleets and specialty vehicles. Some vehicles are currently in production and in regular on-road operations with key fleet customers, and it claimed 6,000 unit orders in backlog.\nIts MD-platform is for classes 5-6 for pickup and delivery. Its HD X-Platform is an adaptable chassis for highway, vocational, and severe work conditions. Its market is for customers with highly predictable routes that allow for batteries designed for a more limited range. A significantly larger frame and smaller battery pack allow for reduced density.\nXos has a bundled all-in-one offering that allows fleets to access all the tools and services they need to go electric with a single point of contact at a fixed monthly expense.\nXos had $3 million in revenue in 2020 and estimates $14 million in 2021. However, it forecasts $5.2 billion in revenue in 2025. At the current stock price of $10.30, its market cap is approximately $2 billion, about the same as its original SPAC transaction.\nLion Electric (NGA)\nLion Electric is a Canadian company founded by Marc Bédard in 2008. Its focus is to be a leader in designing, developing, and manufacturing purpose-built urban electric vehicles; vehicles that are specifically designed as delivery trucks, refuse trucks, bucket trucks, moving trucks, school buses, and shuttle buses. It has over 300 all-electric vehicles on the road today.\nIn November 2020, it announced that it was going public through the SPAC NGA. The transaction had an estimated pro forma enterprise value of $1.5 billion.\nIt plans on seven new truck models and one new school bus, for a total of 15 all-electric vehicles, representing a full line-up from class 5 to class 8 electric trucks and a full line-up of electric school buses. Its vehicles are produced at its existing manufacturing plant, which has the capacity for the production of up to 2,500 vehicles per year. It intends to open a new plant in the U.S. capable of delivering over 20,000 Lion trucks and buses per year by 2022.\nIts all-electric class 6 and class 8 commercial urban trucks combine power, comfort, and modern technology. Custom-built chassis and cabin designed specifically for an all-electric heavy-duty vehicle. The LionC is an all-electric Type C school bus manufactured in North America. The body and chassis were specifically designed to deliver optimal performance. The LionM is an all-electric midi/minibus that meets paratransit and public transportation requirements. Created and designed specifically for the paratransit market, the is spacious and offers unique features that provide enhanced security and accessibility to the end-users.\nLion Electric had $29 million in revenue in 2020 and expects $204 million in 2021. It forecasts revenue to jump to $3.6 billion a few years later in 2024. Its current market cap is approximately $3.6 billion based on its current stock price of $18.33.\nLightning eMotors (GIK)\nLightning eMotors, formerly Lightning Systems, was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Loveland, Colorado. It provides fleet electrification for familiar commercial vehicle platforms by retrofitting them with its electric powertrains. Lightning eMotors produces electric fleet medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including delivery trucks, shuttle buses, passenger vans, ambulances, bucket trucks, chassis-cab models, and city transit buses. It focuses on urban commercial zero-emission vehicles with a full range of class 3 through class 7 battery-electric and fuel-cell electric vehicles.\nLighting eMotors helps commercial fleets achieve their sustainability goals by offering zero-emission battery-electric vans, trucks, and buses based on familiar, proven vehicles from manufacturers such as Ford and GM. It works with customers, to help them identify their unique commercial electric vehicle, charging, and grant support needs.\nThe Lightning products include integrated all-electric powertrains for the Ford Transit 350HD passenger and cargo vans, Ford E-450 shuttle bus and cutaway models, Ford F-59 step/food van, Ford F-550 cargo trucks and buses, Chevrolet 6500XD Low Cab Forward model, and 30-foot, 35-foot, and 40-foot transit buses.\nLightning has 120 vehicles on the road, and 1,500 vehicles already on order from customers. In addition to making vehicles and powertrains, Lightning also provides a full suite of charging solutions for customers.\nThe deal with GIK has an enterprise value of $650 million, although there is also an Earnout of 20.0% of total pro forma shares outstanding to Lightning eMotors shareholders if the stock crosses certain price thresholds.\nAt the current price, of $11.73, GIK has a market cap of approximately $1 billion, a little more than the original transaction valuation. Similar to XL Fleet, Lightning has the risk that retrofitting may only be an interim business opportunity until more EV trucks are produced.\nPublic Chinese EV Companies\nChina will be the biggest EV market opportunity, and EV start-ups may do better there because there isn't as much entrenched competition from domestic auto companies. China is already the largest EV market in the world, with almost a million EVs sold in 2019. Its EV market represents almost half of the global EV sales volume and is much larger than the U.S. market.\nThe Chinese government has ambitions to become a global leader in new energy vehicles. Soon after the coronavirus outbreak subsided within the country, Chinese authorities announced new policies to support the auto and electric vehicle industries.\nThese Chinese companies are traded through American depository shares (ADS) that contain certain risks. There are financial reporting and transparency risks with these companies, and on top of that, the newer companies are being classified as \"emerging growth\" companies that are already exempt from certain transparency requirements set out in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Like the previous EV stock, these stocks have also been very volatile.\nIn addition to legacy auto manufacturers like BYD, there are also three Chinese EV companies that are publicly traded through American depositary shares.\nBYD Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:BYDDY)\nBYD, which means build your dreams, is the automotive subsidiary of the Chinese multinational BYD Co Ltd. It was founded in January 2003, following BYD Company's acquisition of Tsinchuan Automobile Company. The company produces automobiles, buses, electric bicycles, forklifts, rechargeable batteries, and trucks. The current model range of automobiles includes electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and petrol-engined vehicles. Thirteen years ago, on the advice of his famously skeptical lieutenant, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett made a $232 million investment in BYD, a relatively unknown Chinese car company.\nBy parlaying BYD's rechargeable battery technology into a fast-growing carmaking operation, it gained a foothold in the fledgling electric vehicle market, building longer-lasting batteries and cheaper vehicles than American and Japanese manufacturers were managing to do at the time. In BYD, Buffett and Munger believed they had found a company with a shot at one day becoming the largest player in a global automobile market that was inevitably going electric.\nBYD's start to 2021 was strong with 19,871 plug-in electric cars sold in January in China, including hybrid plug-ins. That was a big increase over 2020 but not as much as 2019.\nLI Auto (LI)\nLixiang, formerly known as Chehejia (\"Car and Home\"), was founded in 2015 and went public in the U.S. on July 30th, 2020. It is a Beijing-based electric-vehicle startup with vertically integrated manufacturing. It designs, researches, manufactures, sells, and offers services featuring a few models of electric vehicles.\nThe company's SUVs are hybrids of a sort. They use electric motors (one on the front axle and one on the rear), but those motors are powered by a combination of a 40.5kWh battery packanda 1.2-liter turbocharged engine paired to a 45-liter fuel tank and a 100kW electric generator, which generates power for the battery pack in real-time. The idea is that the car can be driven for about 100 miles on battery power alone, but it has a total range of nearly 500 miles when leveraging the combustion engine generator.\nThe Company's primary product is an SUV under its brand Li ONE. It also sells peripheral products and provides related services, such as charging stalls, vehicle internet connection services, and extended lifetime warranties. Li Auto is looking to sell a variety of SUVs built on its hybrid technology that range from around $21,000 to about $70,000. The company started shipping its first model in late 2019. It's a midsize SUV is well-appointed and has lots of touchscreens and technology. A full-size premium version is planned for release in 2022.\nDeliveries of Li ONEs were 14,464 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a 67.0% quarter-over-quarter increase and setting a new quarterly record. Deliveries for the full year 2020 reached 32,624 vehicles. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $635 million.\nLI auto went public on July 30th, 2020, raising $1.1 billion at an initial price of $15.50 per share but quickly reached almost $24. It is currently valued at approximately $37 billion at a price of approximately $25.72 per share.\nXPeng (XPEV)\nXiaopeng (XPeng) Motors is a Chinese electric vehicle and technology company that designs and manufactures smart cars. It was founded in 2015 and went public on August 27, 2020, using American depository shares, raising about $1 billion. To date, it has raised about $2.6 billion.\nXPeng aims its EVs at technology-savvy middle-class Chinese consumers, with prices ranging from $22,000 to $45,000 after government subsidies. In some ways, it is a Tesla knock-off at a much lower price. XPeng started production of the G3 in November 2018, and as of July 31, 2020, delivered 18,741. It started production of the P7 and began delivery in May 2020, and as of July 31, 2020, it had delivered 1,966 EVs. The P7 has a range of more than 400 miles. It plans to launch a third Smart EV, a sedan, in 2021. The G3 was among the top-three best-selling electric SUVs in China in 2019.\nXPeng is interesting because it has a platform strategy and is moving aggressively into autonomous driving. It uses a platform strategy to expand product offerings by launching one Smart EV model each year to broaden the addressable market. It builds new models on two highly flexible Smart EV platforms, called David and Edward, respectively. The David platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,600 millimeters to 2,800 millimeters, and the Edward platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,800 millimeters to 3,100 millimeters. It also adopted a platform approach for software systems.\nXPeng claims to be developing an autonomous driving capability for its EVs. The P7 is the first production vehicle to feature the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Xavier system-on-a-chip (SoC) autonomous driving platform. The company's Smart Electric Platform Architecture (SEPA) runs on 2 chips - NVIDIA for the XPILOT and Qualcomm's Snapdragon™ 820A for intelligent services and infotainment, including cameras inside and outside, radars, HD-map, and ultrasonic sensors. Like Tesla, it claims it can create sufficiently-autonomous driving without lidar.\nTo enhance brand recognition and allow more people to experience its Smart EVs, it deployed a small number of Smart EVs in a ride-hailing service in Guangzhou on a trial basis, but it has no current plan to scale up a ride-hailing service.\nXpeng sees first-quarter 2021 deliveries rising 450% year-over-year to 12,500 vehicles. Revenues are expected to increase 533% from a year ago. The company didn't provide bottom-line estimates for the quarter, but will likely post another net loss as it ramps up manufacturing, invests in R&D, and builds out a new manufacturing plant set to open in 2022.\nXpeng reported selling 12,964 vehicles in Q4 2020, up 303% from a year ago. It delivered a total of 27,041 vehicles in 2020, up 112%. It makes the P7 sedan, a rival to the made-in-China Tesla Model 3, and the small G3 SUV.\nThe stock opened on August 27, 2020 at a price of $15 and a valuation of $11 billion, but its stock jumped more than 40% shortly after. Its current valuation is about $35 billion at a stock price of approximately $36.13 per share. It had about $300 million in revenue in 2019 with a loss of about $500 million.\nNio (NIO)\nUnlike previous companies, Nio has been a public company for some time. It originally went public in the U.S. back in September of 2018, selling IPO shares at $6.26 and raising $1 billion.\nNio's IPO was far from smooth. After going public at $6.26 per share, it traded down to nearly $1. Then in the middle of the coronavirus outbreak, Nio received a much-needed investment of $1 billion from investors, including state-backed entities.\nNio designs, jointly manufactures, and sells smart and connected premium electric vehicles, attempting to develop next-generation technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving, and artificial intelligence. Joint manufacturing means that it uses a state-owned contract manufacturer to build its cars.\nNio plans to provide customers with comprehensive, convenient, and innovative charging solutions and other user-centric services. It began deliveries of the ES8, a 7-seater high-performance premium electric SUV in China in June 2018, and its variant, the six-seater ES8, in March 2019. Nio officially launched the ES6, a 5-seater high-performance premium electric SUV, in December 2018 and began deliveries in June 2019. It officially launched the EC6, a 5-seater smart premium electric Coupe SUV, in December 2019 with deliveries in 2020.\nNio sold 17,353 EVs in Q4/2020 and 43,728 for the year. It warned a shortage in chips and batteries will force a production slowdown to 7,500 a month in Q2 from 10,000 vehicles a month in February.\nNio currently trades at more than $43 per share, including a big jump recently, for a valuation of approximately $48 billion. It had revenue of $2.3 billion in 2019 for a loss of $3.8 billion.\nSummary\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this should provide exciting new investment opportunities. However, the investment terrain is complex. There are dozens of new start-ups where the public can now invest that were previously exclusively venture capital investment opportunities. Many of these are following different roads to success. There are legacy auto manufacturers that could prosper or get destroyed in this transition. There are some exciting new EV company opportunities in China. And then there is Tesla.\nThis EV roadmap is intended to help investors explore different roads to investment by explaining the basic strategies for these EV companies. These roads can have different opportunities and risks, and the roadmap helps to frame these. Above all, valuation is an overriding risk that is highlighted throughout this article.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":370355296,"gmtCreate":1618556145115,"gmtModify":1704712677950,"author":{"id":"3577325505292125","authorId":"3577325505292125","name":"Tomji","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/532a3a0ad4f7404cd51e8a18187863b7","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577325505292125","authorIdStr":"3577325505292125"},"htmlText":"Long read warning.&nbsp;","listText":"Long read warning.&nbsp;","text":"Long read warning.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/370355296","repostId":1196402560,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1196402560","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616134696,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196402560?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-19 14:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"New Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196402560","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, an","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>It's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.</li>\n <li>Last October, I wrote a popular article providing a roadmap for investing in electric vehicles, but since then, so much has changed: new entrants, new strategies, fluctuating valuations, etc.</li>\n <li>So, I updated and greatly expanded the previous EV investment roadmap.</li>\n <li>This update includes a deeper look at valuations for 23 EV companies with revenue projections, when available.</li>\n <li>It also classifies these EV companies into their primary market categories and summarizes their different strategies.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb96acc615cba9c7842860658c019ab1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\">Photo by Sven Loeffler/iStock via Getty Images\nMy article&nbsp;Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap&nbsp;published five months ago, was popular, and some followers have requested an update. Many new EV companies entered the market, most of them through SPACs. Valuations fluctuated wildly, and there has been a great deal of publicity around these companies.\nThis new updated EV investment roadmap is greatly expanded. In addition to updating the strategies and progress of companies previously discussed, I expanded the number of companies covered. This article also groups EV companies into their primary markets, enabling better comparisons and evaluation of market opportunities. In addition, it includes a comparative valuation chart showing every company's market cap with a comparison to projected revenue, where possible. This takes advantage (good or bad) of looking at the long-term revenue forecasts provided in SPAC mergers that public companies can't make.\nIn addition to the EV manufacturers discussed here, there are also EV investment opportunities in charging station companies, battery manufacturers, and battery materials companies. These were covered in the original roadmap and may also be updated in a later article.\nApproximately 2 million EVs were sold in 2019, and although the number declined along with all auto sales in 2020, it is forecasted to increase in 2021 and reach 8-10 million by 2025. Some forecast that EV sales will be greater than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2030, or even earlier. The automobile market appears to be moving toward a historical transformation, and exceptional investment gains can be made by anticipating new emerging industries and investing in the eventual winners of those new industries. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)are obvious examples. Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to create a new emerging industry.\nThere are also significant risks. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to be released in the next three years, which will drive rapid growth in EV sales. However, the expected sales from these new models, as well as the increasing expectations from Tesla, most likely exceed the total projected market. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the companies covered here won't exist five years from now. It reminds me of the internet bubble of the late 1990s when scores of internet-based companies went public with little or no revenue. Almost all of these failed within three years -- however, a couple, including Amazon, went on to enormous success.\nEVs provide a major new investment opportunity with high risks. To succeed, you need to have a clear EV investment roadmap.\nSo, how can you invest in this new emerging market? The EV landscape is complex and investment opportunities are varied. While Tesla is the unquestioned leader in EVs, some consider it overvalued and unlikely to show exceptional returns to new investors. The current U.S. legacy automakers are committed to introducing many new EVs in the next few years, and they have some entrenched advantages with volume manufacturing capabilities, a dealer infrastructure, and loyal customers. There are exciting new EV start-ups in the U.S. that have come public this year, mostly through Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), and there are several interesting publicly traded Chinese EV manufacturers.\nThis new roadmap for EV investment classifies companies into three primary markets segments:\n<ul>\n <li>TheConsumer Retailsegment includes EVs sold to consumers individually, such as SUVs, pickup trucks, sedans, etc.</li>\n <li>TheCommercial Deliverysegment includes local delivery EV vans and trucks sold to fleets.</li>\n <li>TheMedium- and Long-Haul Truckingsegment includes heavier Class 4 - Class 8 trucks, as well as special industrial vehicles.</li>\n</ul>\nIn addition, it categorizesLegacy ManufacturersandChinese EV Companies. This enables investors to evaluate investment opportunities by considering unique opportunities within each market segment.\nThere is an enormous amount of investment optimism for EVs, and retail investors have been aggressively buying into EV stocks with seemingly no regard for valuation. Then there is the additional challenge of valuing companies with no revenue, especially those coming public through SPACs. So, valuation is an important investment consideration.\nSo let's start by looking at an overview of comparative EV valuations.\nEV Investment Valuation Overview\nThe following chart summarizes valuations for 23 EV companies, including several legacy companies. For SPACs, market cap estimates are computed using the pro forma number of shares at closing, otherwise using the valuation of the SPAC prior to closing drastically underestimates the valuation, which may be misleading to novice investors. Price/Sales ratios (market cap divided by revenue) are used to compare valuations. As a benchmark, current P/S ratios vary. For example, auto and truck companies have a ratio of 2.7X. Software companies have the highest ratios of over 10X.\nIn the chart, companies that currently have revenue show current P/S ratios. Where projections are available, projected P/S ratios are computed. A note of caution, however. Many of the EV companies came public through SPACs and published their projections (which public companies cannot do), and many of these are likely to prove unrealistic.\nAll of the longer-term revenue projections come from the company (C) forecasts with a SPAC. Some of these may turn out to be accurate, not many are most likely unrealistic. Some, like Lucid, Faraday, and Arrival forecast hitting more than $10 billion in revenue in a few years, when it took Tesla more than 10. Things are different now and they might achieve these, but they could also find that it will take longer to complete development, ramp up production, and create enough customer demand. Many companies may also find that there will be significant capital requirements to achieve this type of growth, and shareholders will be diluted.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc360dfa7de01516b7f68d5962cf3017\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"883\">\nTesla, the \"gold standard\" in EVs, has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, which many people believe is overvalued. Its market cap is approximately 20X 2020 revenue and 10X estimated 2022 revenue.\nTesla (TSLA)\nIn the U.S., and to a lesser extent in China, Tesla is the dominant EV provider. It has approximately 60% of the U.S. EV market and about 20% of the market in China. I own a Tesla and love it, but an investment in Tesla stock requires getting comfortable with its valuation. Tesla has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, although declining lately, which some consider still overvalued while others see upside potential.\nThe investment opportunity with Tesla is based on the expectation that it will continue to dominate the EV market, or at least maintain significant market share, despite much greater competition from the expected introduction of hundreds of new EV models in the next few years.\nThere is a great deal already published about Tesla, so I'll move on.\nLegacy Automakers\nSome people think that the legacy automakers will simply fade away. Historically, that was the case in some other industries, but it is not going to happen to most automakers. They are not standing still waiting to become obsolete. Most have aggressive strategies to replace ICE vehicles with EVs. GM plans to invest $27 billion and build and launch as many as 30 new EV models by 2025. Ford plans to invest $29 billion in EVs by 2025 and launch as many as 16 EVs in the next two years. Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY)has also committed billions to develop new EVs.\nThe competitive advantage that legacy automakers have in selling their new EVs is their dealer network. Will new EV customers prefer to continue going to their regular auto dealer to buy their new EV?\nAlmost all legacy automakers worldwide are developing and launching EVs including Volkswagen, Peugeot, Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi, Hyundai/Kia. Let's look a little more closely at GM and Ford as the leaders in the U.S.\nGeneral Motors (GM)\nGM has committed to introducing 20 new electric vehicles by 2023, including EVs across Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC, and Buick. It recently announced that it has already sold out the first-year production of its Hummer electric pickup. By mid-decade, it expects to sell a million EVs per year in its two largest markets: North America and China. As a reference point, Tesla reported deliveries of 367,500 vehicles globally in 2019.\nGM has a solid platform strategy for its EVs. It plans on building its EVs using five interchangeable drive units and three different motors from its Ultium Drive System platform. Ultium energy options range from 50 to 200 kWh, which could enable an estimated range of up to 400 miles. Most of its EVs will have 400-volt battery packs and up to 200 kW fast-charging capability while the truck platform will have 800-volt battery packs and 350 kW fast-charging capabilities.\nThe key building blocks of the Ultium battery system are large-scale, high-energy cells. Engineered in partnership with LG Energy Solutions, they use both advanced chemistry and a smart cell design that's optimized for a broad portfolio of EVs. GM engineers and scientists are actively researching and testing new elements in battery chemistry to lower costs and improve charge times. Ultium can contain either vertically- or horizontally-stacked cells to integrate into vehicle design: vertically for trucks, SUVs, and crossovers, or horizontally for cars and performance vehicles. As new chemistry is developed and becomes available, the battery management system could digitally update the modules.\nGM also has other EV opportunities with its BrightDrop commercial EV service and its Cruise subsidiary. BrightDrop will not just sell delivery EVs, it will provide an entire service platform for commercial delivery customers. Its set of electric delivery vehicles starts with the EV600 and includes the BrightDrop EP1, a pod-like electric pallet. SeeGeneral Motors' Aggressive EV/AV Strategies May Payoff Big.\nWith its highest stock price of $61.65, GM's current market cap is approximately $89 billion, increasing primarily because of its progress with EVs. This approximately 3X valuation in 2018, but still only 13% of Tesla.\nFord (F)\nFord is also investing heavily in EVs. It just introduced the Mustang Mach-E, a battery-powered crossover with sports car styling, and plans to introduce an all-electric version of its best-selling F-150 pickup later this year. Also, planned is an electric edition of the full-size Transit van, which has been popular in the commercial delivery market. Ford has confirmed plans to build a luxury Lincoln crossover on a battery-powered platform provided by Rivian. The automaker also plans to introduce two new midsize electric crossovers, one each for the Ford and Lincoln brands by 2023.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd8523e15bccc57790940d4218f7b94e\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"1080\">Mustang Mach-E. Source: Ford\nFord's market cap is approximately $51 billion, twice its previous market cap, and also increasing.\nConsumer Retail EV Companies\nThe consumer retail market has some unique characteristics for new EV companies. Sales are made individually, not in fleets. This diversifies the risk upon launch because only a sufficient number of customers need to be attracted to the new EV. A wave of popularity can provide terrific momentum.\nHowever, the lack of a dealer network can be an impediment. Selling EVs directly to consumers instead of through dealers is prohibited in most states. By law, auto manufacturers can't compete with franchised dealers. These are laws that go back many decades to protect dealers. This can be a major impediment for new companies without established independent dealer franchises. So, new AV companies. like Tesla, need to sell their vehicles online. Tesla has successfully done this, but it took a lot of work and time. Lack of a dealer network also creates impediments in service.\nIn addition, over the next 4-5 years, autonomous capabilities will be increasingly important to luxury vehicles. This may prove to be a challenge to start-up EV companies because they can't afford to develop this technology.\nLet's look closer at the alternative consumer retail EV investments.\nLucid Motors (CCIV)\nLucid was founded in 2007 under the name Atieva and originally focused on building electric vehicle batteries and powertrains for other vehicle manufacturers. The company rebranded itself as Lucid Motors in October 2016 and shifted its strategy to develop an all-electric, high-performance, luxury vehicle. Shortly after that, it encountered financial difficulties and struggled to get short-term funding. In 2018 it raised more than $1 billion in investment, primarily from Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund, and gave up a majority of the company.\nLucid Motors reached an agreement to become a publicly-traded company through a merger with the SPAC Churchill Capital IV Corp., in one of the largest deals SPAC EV deals. The combined company, in which Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund will continue to be the largest shareholder, had a transaction equity value of $11.75 billion (for $10/share). At the same time, it closed a PIPE investment priced at $15 a share, giving it an implied pro forma equity value of $24 billion. Rumors about this deal circulated before the transaction was formally announced, making it one of the most anticipated SPAC deals. The hype and speculation drove up the stock price of Churchill Capital IV Corp. from its opening price of $10 a share to almost $60. I believe that some of this may have been driven by novice SPAC investors who didn't realize that the valuation of CCIV didn't include the eventual valuation of Lucid. The share price dropped more than 30% after the details of the deal were announced. It's also likely that Lucid renegotiated the terms of the merger based on the price jump.\nThe company's first product is the Lucid Air, a well-equipped luxury electric vehicle that features 406 miles of projected range and 480 horsepower with a starting price of $77,400, or $69,900 after the U.S. Federal Tax Credit of $7,500. This new Lucid Air model is positioned as a high-performance, ultra-efficient luxury EV sedan in a line of future vehicles that are expected to include Lucid Air Touring, Grand Touring, and Dream Edition versions.\nThe company plans to begin production and deliveries of the Lucid Air in North America in the second half of 2021. Previously the company aimed to begin deliveries earlier in 2021. It intends to sell the car in Europe in 2022, followed by China in 2023. Lucid vehicles will be produced at its new factory in Casa Grande, Arizona. The company plans to expand the factory in phases in the coming years to have the capacity to produce 365,000 units per year at scale. The initial phase of the $700 million factory construction was completed late last year and will have the capacity to produce 30,000 vehicles a year.\nLucid also apparently has a commitment to build an assembly plant in Saudi Arabia, which was rumored to be a condition of the $1 billion investment from the Saudi public fund. The Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund also provided $600 million in bridge financing and invested in the SPAC deal as well. So, while this assembly plant may be expensive and may not be critical, it will most likely need to happen.\nLucid has ambitious plans to achieve $14 billion in revenue in 2025, and its current stock price at $29.17, which gives it a market cap of more than $46 billion, may already reflect those ambitions. Its market cap is roughly the same as Ford.\nFisker (FSR)\nFisker, which had its origins with Fisker Automotive, is an interesting story that ended in bankruptcy. Henrik Fisker originally co-founded Fisker Automotive in 2007. He was responsible for designing many premium cars such as the Aston Martin. Subsequently, Fisker Automotive had to deal with a Tesla lawsuit against Fisker Automotive alleging it stole Tesla's technology, a controversial $528.7 million conditional loan from the Department of Energy, a recall of its battery produced by A123, and the loss of several hundred vehicles in hurricane Sandy. Henrik Fisker resigned in March 2013 because of disagreements over business strategy and in November 2013, Fisker filed its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case.\nHowever, Henrik Fisker retained the Fisker brand and trademarks, and in 2016 he started another electric vehicle company named Fisker Inc. with the Fisker brand and trademarks. In 2019, Fisker shifted from developing a sports car with a solid-state battery to the Ocean SUV featuring a lithium-ion battery, which it later abandoned for a solid-state battery.\nFisker is positioning itself in a unique segment for those who want the most environmentally friendly EV. While this may be an early growth segment for EVs, it's difficult to estimate its eventual competitive advantage and the size of this environmentally-friendly market segment.\nThe Ocean is a crossover made of recycled metal and plastic with an expected base price of $37,499, and an expected lease of less than $400 a month. Fisker's plan is essentially a lease-only business model that lets customers keep a vehicle for years or return it at any time. It aims to source motors, batteries, and other components from technical partnerships with automakers and will outsource production from existing auto plants. Fisker is currently taking reservations at $250 for the Ocean. It also announced an agreement with Foxconn to jointly develop a vehicle pioneering a new market segment to be sold globally under the Fisker brand commencing in Q4 2023. at the end of 2022. Production will start at Magna Steyr's manufacturing facilities in Europe. At the end of February 2021, it had 12,467 cancellable reservations.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/924a617c90fc3276d7bdab8c64ebfdcf\" tg-width=\"744\" tg-height=\"389\">Fisker Ocean. Source: Fisker\nFisker went public using a SPAC (Spartan Energy). The original combination with SPAQ in October 2020 was valued at $2.9 billion with a cash investment of approximately $1 billion. The stock currently trades at approximately $21 per share, after reaching a high of $28.50, from the original price of $10, which is a market cap of $4.6 billion. Fisker projects $3.3 billion in revenue in 2023. It had almost $1 billion in cash at the end of 2020 and expected to use almost half of this in 2021: $250 million on operating expenses and $250 million in capital investments. If the Ocean is delayed into 2023, Fisker risks missing its revenue objective and will potentially need additional cash to complete development and launch.\nFaraday Future (PSAC)\nFaraday Future was originally established in May 2014 by Chinese businessman Jia Yueting. It is headquartered in Los Angeles and has offices in Silicon Valley, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu. Faraday Future also had a turbulent history. In 2016, it struggled financially, and in 2017 some key executives departed over a dispute about financial issues. They later founded Canoo.\nIn December 2018 the company announced layoffs due to a cash crunch and financial troubles. The company's founder Jia Yueting filed for personal bankruptcy in the United States' federal court in Delaware on October 14, 2019. Following Jia's personal bankruptcy, he decided to step down from his role as CEO of Faraday Future in order to assume a new position as the Chief Product and User Officer. He was replaced as CEO by Carsten Breitfeld, the former CEO at rival electric vehicle startup Byton.\nSomehow, Faraday was able to raise $2.3 billion in private funding over 5 rounds from a variety of investors. In early 2018, it received $1.5 billion in funding from an undisclosed investor from Hong Kong.\nFaraday's flagship product offering will be the FF 91, featuring 1,050 HP, 0-60 mph in less than 2.4 seconds, zero gravity seats with the largest 60-degree reclining angles, and a user experience designed to create a mobile, connected, and luxurious living space. The FF 91 is targeted to launch in 2022.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e38bfb3211c72bb73bc26f2ebe296fe\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"854\">FF 91. Source: Faraday Future\nIts strategic partners include one of China's top three OEMs and a critical Chinese city, which the company believes will help establish its presence in the Chinese vehicle market.\nFaraday Future plans several cars based on its Variable Platform Architecture. FF 91 is the first production vehicle and flagship model. Pricing will range between $120,000 and upwards of $200,000, which places it against formidable opponents. Faraday Future is already looking forward to expanding its range with a pair of smaller models named FF 81 and FF 71. The FF 81 is planned to be priced at $75,000 to 95,000 with a 2023 release. The FF 71 is planned to be priced at $45,000 to $65,000 with a planned release of 2024.\nThe Primary Manufacturing Facility for FF 91 is in Hanford, CA with contract manufacturing for future models in Gunsan, South Korea.\nFaraday Future is planning high-Level automation with a Level-3 capable system using a redundant safety architecture based on NVIDIA Xavier System-on-a-chip. It will be capable of highway auto-drive and hardware ready for advanced auto-drive. It is targeting full autonomous valet parking &amp; summon in any parking lot or structure. Eventually, it expects full auto-drive, including full 360˚ sensor coverage for advanced auto-drive &amp; auto-park features.\nIn January 2021, Faraday Future announced that the company would go public through a reverse merger with the special purpose acquisition company Property Solutions Acquisition Corp. (PSAC). The combined company will be valued at $3.4 billion. Faraday Future is expected to set up contract manufacturing operations in China through their partnership with Geely. Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn is also expected to serve as an additional strategic partner.\nFaraday Future projects $10.5 billion in revenue in 2024 and $21.5 billion in 2025. Revenue is expected to start in 2022 with the delivery of 2,400 vehicles for $504 million. Most likely these projections could prove to be optimistic. At a current stock price of approximately $12.80, it has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nLordstown Motors (RIDE)\nLordstown Motors based in Lordstown, Ohio, was originally founded in 2018 by Steve Burns, the former CEO of Workhorse Group. The company licensed technology from Workhorse in return for royalties and a 10% ownership. Lordstown is named after the famous GM Lordstown manufacturing plant, which it acquired in November 2019 in an unusual transaction. GM announced that it was closing the plant and was under a great deal of pressure for that decision. So, GM \"sold\" the plant to a company that was renamed Lordstown for an estimated $20 million that it loaned to the acquiring company. Subsequently, the sale was redefined to be part of a $75 million investment by GM, of which $50 million was an in-kind exchange for the plant.\nLordstown went public through the SPAC DiamondPeak Holdings Corp. in 2020. It currently has more than 400 employees.\nIts first product is the Lordstown Endurance, a full-sized EV pickup truck. Lordstown is positioning Endurance for the pickup fleet market segment. The expected price is $52,000+, and it claimed to have more than 100,000 pre-orders by January 2021. However, a recent research article published by a short seller claimed \"Our research has revealed that Lordstown's order book consists of fake or entirely non-binding orders, from customers that generally do not even have fleets of vehicles.\" Lordstown is disputing that article.\nIt believes the fleet pickup market segment is underserved with no current EV-focused competition. It estimates that the full-sized pick-up truck fleet market is 1.2 million vehicles per year in the U.S., but it's more fragmented than other truck fleets. Pickup \"fleets\" tend to be much smaller and local, so there may not be much of a market distinction for a small company buying several EV pickups from a traditional auto dealer. About half of the total U.S. pickup market is classified as fleet sales, meaning more than one.\nEven though Lordstown is targeting the commercial fleet market, it is a similar product to the Ford EV F-150. So I classify it in the consumer EV category. It is a class 2 vehicle. Lordstown also may enter the SUV market in the longer-term.\nThe Endurance will compete against future models from Rivian and Tesla, as well as Ford and GM in ICE pick-ups and their upcoming EV pick-ups. Ford plans on selling its EV F-150 in mid-2022. Initial production of the Endurance is expected in the second half of 2021, so it may have a short market advantage. Nevertheless, it forecasts selling 65,000 vehicles in 2023 and 107,000 in 2024. These estimates could be a large percentage of the EV pick-up market in those years.\nAt the SPAC merger, the implied valuation for Lordstown was $1.6 billion, including a $500 million PIPE and the $75 million by GM. Lordstown's financial projections appear to be aggressive. It projects to start shipping the Endurance in late 2021 with projected revenue in 2022 of $1.7 billion, increasing to $5.8 billion in 2024. Its stock price at approximately $13.60 values the company at a market cap of approximately $2.2 billion. The value of the company depends on the likelihood of achieving its projections.\nA fleet sales strategy makes sense for Lordstown since it would be too expensive to build a retail sales and service capability. However, it's not clear that this will become a distinct competitive advantage. Some small fleets may still prefer to buy their EV pickups from established local dealers with service capabilities.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nCanoo started as Evelozcity in 2017 and rebranded as Canoo in the spring of 2019. Canoo is a Los Angeles-based company that develops electric vehicles. It has over 350 employees. Canoo has designed a modular electric platform purpose-built to deliver maximum vehicle interior space, which is adaptable to support a wide range of vehicle applications for consumers and businesses. Canoo expects to launch its first consumer model in 2022, simply named the Canoo that will be available by subscription, followed shortly after by a multi-purpose delivery vehicle and a sports vehicle, each built off of the same underlying platform. Canoo went public using a SPAC (Hennessy Capital Acquisition) and now trades as GOEV.\nCanoo's all-electric skateboard-like platform is designed to support both consumer retail and commercial vehicle configurations. The EV leverages Canoo's flat skateboard architecture for a high level of usable interior space. Its commercial vehicle program, expected in 2023, addresses a projected $50B+ last-mile delivery market with an EV platform that maximizes cargo volume.\nHyundai Motor Group said it would jointly develop an electric vehicle platform with the company.\nCanoo's platform strategy is interesting. It could be used as an EV platform for custom fleets of delivery vehicles. It has no AV development, but it claims to be \"AV Ready\" which could be useful for AV companies wanting to build custom AV delivery fleets.\nIts all-electric multi-purpose delivery vehicle is expected to be priced starting at approximately $33,000. It is based on Canoo's proprietary electric platform and will be offered in two initial size variants, with others to follow. Limited availability will begin in 2022, with scaled production and launch planned for 2023. Customers can pre-order the multi-purpose delivery vehicle for a refundable deposit of $100 per vehicle\nIt plans to offer two multi-purpose delivery vehicles: the MPDV1 and the larger MPDV2. The first has a 200-foot cargo volume and a range of 130-200 miles. It offers more capacity than today's ICE delivery vehicles at an affordable price with urban mobility enabled by a space-efficient footprint. The vehicle is also designed to fit within many height-restricted areas like parking garages.\nThe MPDV2 has a cargo volume of 450 feet and a range of 90-190 miles. Its roof and step-in height enable individuals to easily walk-in the vehicle and accommodate a standing position while inside.\nThe original SPAC transaction provided approximately $600 million, with a pro forma equity value of approximately $2.4 billion. Like other SPAC mergers, its stock price has fluctuated. It currently trades at about $15.90 per share for a market cap of approximately $3.7 billion. Canoo projects $2.0 billion in revenue in 2025 from about $500 million in engineering services, $1.2 billion from its consumer vehicle subscriptions, and the remainder from its commercial program. Canoo expects revenue of more than $300 million in 2022 after the launch of its lifestyle consumer vehicle.\nSince its first products are aimed at consumers, as is most of its forecasted 2025 revenue, I categorize it primarily as a consumer EV company. However, I think the design of that Canoo vehicle may not attract enough customers. More importantly, its subscription service way of selling its EV to consumers is risky. I think it has more potential in the commercial market, however, a dual strategy (consumer and commercial) is challenging. I like its skateboard platform design and that could prove to be a competitive advantage.\nRivian\nAlthough not yet public, I include Rivian because it has plans for an IPO as soon as Sept 2021, although it could slip into 2022. There are rumors that the company is targeting a market valuation of approximately $50B. Rivian has already raised more than $8 billion to date from Amazon, Ford, T. Rowe Price, and others.\nRivian has developed and vertically integrated a connected electric platform that can be flexibly applied to a range of applications, including the company's adventure products, as well as B2B products such as the Amazon last-mile delivery vans. The company's initial products, the R1T and R1S, provide a combination of performance, off-road capability, and utility. These vehicles will be produced at Rivian's manufacturing plant in Normal, Ill., with customer deliveries expected to begin in summer 2021. The launch of the R1S three-row electric SUV will follow in August.\nAdditional lower-priced models are being planned. The expected R2 series would include at least two smaller electric vehicles to coincide with the smaller platform, then another platform for R3.\nCommercial Delivery EV Companies\nEV truck companies differ based on the type of truck they are developing. The technology and markets are very different, so I separate them into two categories. The first category includes commercial delivery vehicles.\nCompanies making EV delivery vehicles have some major advantages that could make them good investments. First, delivery vehicles typically travel less than 250 miles during a day, so they can be conveniently recharged overnight. Secondly, they are typically sold in large quantities to fleets. This means that building a retail sales infrastructure is not necessary. It only requires a small salesforce. In addition, maintenance can also be provided at the fleet's operational center, so not as many service centers are required.\nThe disadvantage in this market is that there are a relatively small number of customers that buy in large volumes, so if the EV manufacturer can't get enough large customers, they may not be able to stay in business. GM estimates the combined market opportunity for parcel and food delivery, as well as reverse logistics, in the U.S. will be more than $850 billion by 2025.\nThe commercial market is expected to be a major growth area for EVs. Other start-up automakers like Rivian as well as legacy automakers such as Ford, Daimler, and GM have announced plans to enter the segment. GM recently announced its BrightDrop ecosystem for commercial customers that includes an all-new electric delivery van, the EV600 available by the end of 2021, as well as an integrated autonomous pallet and related services.\nThis group of EV companies focuses primarily on commercial delivery. In general, these are in the light-duty trucks category, although it also includes some medium-duty trucks. This generally includes the following commercial truck classes:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 1: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 0-6,000 pounds or 0-2,722 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 2: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 6,001-10,000 pounds or 2,722-4,536 kilograms.1</li>\n <li>Class 3: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 10,001-14,000 pounds or 4,536-6,350 kilograms.</li>\n</ul>\nIt can also include somewhat larger medium-duty EV delivery trucks:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.</li>\n</ul>\nEV delivery trucks also have an advantage over ICE vehicles because they can have a greater delivery storage space. Smaller buses and transit vehicles are also included in this category.\nLast-mile package delivery is not an immediate-term autonomous vehicle opportunity because it requires a delivery person to be on the truck anyway.\nWorkhorse Group (WKHS)\nWorkhorse has been a public company for ten years. Originally AMP Electric Vehicles, it was established in 2007 as a developmental-stage vehicle electrification company, focusing on conversions. AMP Electric Vehicles went public in 2010 trading on the OTC market under the AMPD symbol. When the economic benefits of conversion became less certain, it pivoted away from passenger vehicles and began to focus on electrifying commercial vehicles. AMP acquired the Workhorse brand and the Workhorse custom chassis assembly plant in Union City. In March of 2013, AMP formally changed its name to Workhorse Group Incorporated.\nThe Company designs and builds a last-mile delivery electric vehicle. The C-Series EVs cover the larger size of commercial delivery vehicles in Classes 3-5. As part of its solutions, it also develops cloud-based, real-time telematics performance monitoring systems. It sells its vehicles to fleet customers directly and through its primary distributor, Ryder Systems. It is currently focused on bringing the C-Series electric delivery truck to market and fulfilling the existing backlog of orders.\nThe C-Series looks like a viable EV replacement for the 350,000 last-mile delivery vehicles sold in the U.S. annually. It recently announced an increased driving range from 100 miles to 160, which should open more market opportunities. It has a viable short-term go-to-market strategy selling fleets to delivery companies. It currently has test vehicles with UPS, DHL, FedEx, Amazon, and Walmart.\nWorkhorse recently lost out on the United States Postal Services Next Generation Delivery Vehicle project, however, it is in the process of challenging this decision. Additionally, its investment in Lordstown also provides an indirect investment opportunity. On November 7, 2019, the Company entered a transaction with Lordstown Motors to grant LMC a perpetual and worldwide license to certain intellectual property relating to its W-15 electric pickup truck platform and related technology in exchange for royalties, equity interest (approximately 10%) in LMC, and other considerations. This was a $320 million asset for Workhorse at the end of 2020.\nWorkhorse received a significant increase in orders in Q4/2020 but built just seven trucks in the fourth quarter due to production systems and supply chain issues. Workhorse plans to continue to take it slow, striving to build three of its composite-body battery-electric trucks a day in March with a plan to reach 10 trucks a day by the end of June. This makes its original 2021 goal of producing 1,800 trucks unlikely. It partnered with Hitachi and Hitachi Capital America (\"HCA\") to improve the Company's manufacturing, operational, and supply chain capabilities as well as to develop a national dealer network to support Workhorse's sales with vehicle financing options for both dealers and customers.\nWorkhorse has a market cap of approximately $1.9 billion. While Workhorse had ongoing revenue, unlike many other new EV companies, its revenue is still insignificant. It had a revenue of $1.4 million in 2020 and $377,000 in 2019. It has a backlog of over 8,000 vehicles but doesn't expect to be able to build many of those in 2021. It raised $270 million in capital over several financings, providing the Company with additional capital to build its backlog. It had cash of $215 million as of March 1, 2021. Because Workhorse is a traditional public company, it hasn't made long-term financial projections like SPAC-based companies.\nElectric Last Mile (FIII)\nElectric Last Mile, based in Troy Michigan, was founded by Jason Luo, former CEO of Ford China before it was acquired by China's Ningbo Joyson Electronic for $920 million in 2016, including James Taylor, former CEO of GM's Hummer brand and former CEO of electric car maker Karma Automotive. Taylor serves as the company's top executive with Luo as the company's chairman.\nThe company plans to launch a small electric delivery van (class 1-2), called the UD-1, in the third quarter of 2021, and then introduce an Urban Utility vehicle (Class 2-3) in 2022. These are expected to compete with Workhorse, Rivian, Canoo, as well as the Ford eTransit and the GMC BV1, none of which is expected to be a Class 1 vehicle.\nThe company says it has 30,000 preorders for its van, representing more than $1 billion in sales. Electric Last Miles vehicles will be based on Sokon's commercial van made in China through a joint venture with Dongfeng Automobile Co Ltd. in order to accelerate development time.\nElectric Last Mile (ELM) is expected to manufacture the vans in a former General Motors Co. Hummer plant in Mishawaka, Ind., that the company is acquiring from China's Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co. Ltd. The plant has the capacity to produce 100,000 vehicles annually with plans to build approximately 4,000 UD-1 vans by the end of 2021. The UD-1 has a starting price of $32,500 and a range of 150 miles. The battery for the vehicle is expected to be supplied by the Chinese battery company CATL.\nELM believes that it has a competitive advantage because its first vehicle, the ELM Urban Delivery, is scheduled to be available in 2021. It is based on a proven, existing platform developed and sold by Sokon Group in the Asian market, where there are 30,000 of these electric delivery vehicles driving 1.5 million miles every day. At the close of the business combination, ELM will be an independent, U.S. company producing electric vehicles in the U.S. with Sokon Group providing access to its know-how, parts supply, and field and service data.\nELM expects that the Urban Delivery vehicle will be the first electric delivery vehicle coming to market in the class 1 category (GVW of 6,000 lbs or less) in the U.S. It will also have 35% more carrying volume compared to similar ICE delivery vehicles, a critical part of the value proposition. It also anticipates that its price and greater carrying volume will allow it to take market share from the class 2 category of vehicles as well.\nIts crossover product portfolio strategy targets commercial delivery vehicles spanning from class 1 to class 3, which represents over 80% of the last mile market.\nELM anticipates $122 million in revenue in 2021, rapidly increasing to $3 billion in 2025. The price of FIII stock increased immediately following its announcement with Electric Last Mile, rising more than 40% to $14.50, but now it has dropped closer to the original deal price to $10.25 for a market cap of approximately $1.5 billion.\nGreenPower Motor Company (GP)\nGreenPower Motor Company Inc. is a Canadian battery-electric bus manufacturer with multiple models of high- and low-floor vehicles, including transit buses, school buses, and shuttles. GreenPower offers commercial vehicles for delivery, public transit, schools, vanpooling, micro-transit, shuttles, and is developing a capability of autonomous operation. It went public on August 28, 2020.\nIn 2014 GreenPower launched its first purpose-built, battery-electric bus, the EV350, 40-foot transit bus. GreenPower received its first order in 2017 for ten EV350s from the City of Porterville, California.\nGreenPower's electric buses are purpose-built and designed to be all-electric, allowing it to put the battery and propulsion system in optimized locations that provide weight and structural advantages. Its primary EV is the EV Star with more than 120 vehicles delivered. It comes in several variations:\n<ul>\n <li>EV Star - Up to 19 passengers</li>\n <li>EV Star Plus - Up to 24 passengers</li>\n <li>EV Star ADA - Passenger and curbside lift for ADA</li>\n <li>EV Star Cargo - 5,000 pounds of load</li>\n <li>EV Star Cargo Plus - 570 cubic feet of cargo space.</li>\n</ul>\nIts EV school bus seats up to 90 students and has a range of up to 150 miles.\nGreenPower had revenue of $13.5 million in 2020 It has about $21 million in cash. It's an interesting alternative since it is already shipping EVs, has revenue, and also has a lower market cap of less than $1 billion. Since it did a traditional IPO, it hasn't published longer-term financial forecasts.\nArrival (CIIC)\nArrival was founded in 2015 in London to make a variety of commercial electric vehicles. It has approximately 1,200 employees across 11 cities in 8 countries. In November 2020, Arrival and the SPAC CIIG entered into a business combination agreement with an implied valuation of $5.39 billion.\nArrival plans on releasing four commercial EVs over the next few years.\n<ul>\n <li>Q4/2021: An electric bus for 8-125 passengers and a range of 240-400km</li>\n <li>Q3/2022: An electric delivery van with a payload of 975-2,000kg and a range of 150-340km</li>\n <li>2022: A larger electric van with a payload of 4,000 kg and a range of 190-400km</li>\n <li>2023: a small vehicle platform with a range of 100-300km.</li>\n</ul>\nThis mix provides a nice diversified portfolio of EVs. Arrival claims to have received orders from UPS for 10,000 vans. It plans a unique flexible manufacturing approach using micro-factories with each projected to manufacture 10,000 vans per year. All of its vehicles use a modular skateboard electric platform.\nArrival ambitiously projects $14.1 billion in revenue in 2024. Half of that revenue is expected from delivery vans, 22% from buses, and the rest from the large van and its small vehicle platform. With CIIC's stock price at $24.80 per share, Arrival's current market cap is relatively high at approximately $15.0 billion. Justifying its market cap depends on its ability to release, sell, and produce its four commercial EVs.\nProterra (ACTC)\nProterra is a commercial electric vehicle company with over a decade of production experience. The Company has designed an end-to-end, flexible technology platform that claims to deliver higher performance and a low total cost of ownership to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end customers.\nProterra, Inc., was originally founded in Golden, Colorado, by Dale Hill in 2004. Later the company wanted to take the lead in creating zero-emission, U.S.-based transit buses. In 2010 it moved its manufacturing plant from Golden, Colorado to Greenville, South Carolina. In 2015, Proterra was awarded a $3 million grant from the California Energy Commission to fund the design, development, and construction of the company's battery-electric transit bus manufacturing line in the City of Industry, California. It moved its headquarters from Greenville, South Carolina, to Burlingame, California, in October 2015. Proterra raised more than $600 million in funding.\nIt is going public through the SPAC ArcLight (ACTC) with a pro forma valuation of $1.6 billion. Upon completion of the transaction, Proterra expects to have up to $825 million in cash to fund growth initiatives, including R&amp;D and the expansion of its next-generation battery program.\nProterra has three complementary businesses:\n<ul>\n <li>Proterra Powered: Delivering battery systems and electrification solutions to commercial vehicle manufacturers</li>\n <li>Proterra Transit:Providing an electric transit bus OEMs</li>\n <li>Proterra Energy:Offering turnkey charging and energy management solutions.</li>\n</ul>\nThe company's battery systems have been proven in more than 16 million service miles driven by its fleet of transit vehicles and validated through partnerships with commercial vehicle OEMs. Proterra has produced and delivered more than 300 megawatt-hours of battery systems, more than 550 heavy-duty electric transit buses, and installed 54 megawatts of charging systems.\nProterra expected $193 million of revenue in 2020, with an estimated $750 million in existing orders and backlog. It projects $2.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with about 1/3 coming from its Transit business, and 2/3 From Powered &amp; Energy. At ACTC's current stock price of $17.85, Proterra has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nRivian\nRivian (see earlier description in consumer retail) will also compete in the commercial delivery market. It has been working with Amazon (a major investor) to build large electric delivery vans for Prime. Developed specifically for Amazon, a small fleet of Prime vans is on the road now, testing deliveries to customers and gathering feedback. In late fall, it could grow to a large fleet as Rivian ramps up the volume.\nThe EV range of 150 miles is tailored to Amazon's use cycle to optimize the size, weight, and cost of the commercial vehicle. Rivian has three sizes of batteries, but Amazon is starting with just one of them.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nSee the previous summary under consumer retail EV.\nMedium and Long-Haul Trucking EV Companies\nCompanies developing medium- and long-haul EV trucks face a more difficult challenge with battery range. These trucks haul much more weight than commercial delivery vehicles and because they are designed for long distances, they can't stop every 200-300 miles for recharging.\nFor this reason, many of these companies are using unique hybrid technologies for their trucks. The EV trucks in this category are primarily heavy-duty but also include some medium-duty trucks and specialty vehicles. A couple of the companies focus on retrofitting trucks to be electric.\nMedium-Duty Trucks\nThe medium-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 4, 5, and 6:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 6: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 19,501-26,000 pounds or 8,846-11,793 kilograms.1</li>\n</ul>\nHeavy-Duty Trucks\nThe heavy-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 7 and 8:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 7: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 26,001 to 33,000 pounds or 11,794-14,969 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 8: This class of trucks has a GVWR of greater than 33,001 pounds or 14,969 kilograms and includes all tractor-trailers.</li>\n</ul>\nThe Tesla Semi is a battery vehicle planned for a range of 300 or 500 miles and a speed of 60 MPH with 80,000 lbs of cargo. Tesla plans to start shipping the Semi later this year when it expects to have sufficient cell volume to meet its needs with the production of its 4680 battery pack.\nNikola(NASDAQ:NKLA)\nNikola has been a very controversial company. Founded in 2015, it originally had two different strategies. Its primary strategy is to lease fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) Class-8 heavy trucks and provide the refueling infrastructure to corporate customers. Its second strategy was to develop the Badger EV truck using GM technology.\nNikola originally merged with a SPAC to go public, at an enterprise value of approximately $3.3 billion. On June 6th, 2020, its market cap jumped to more than $30 billion, then later it dropped because of problems with its originally planned deal with GM.\nNikola originally expected a deal with General Motors that included the production of the Nikola Badger EV pickup truck. The proposed arrangement was that GM would take a $2 billion equity stake in Nikola and in return would engineer and produce the Badger. In November 2020, GM and Nikola scrapped the original arrangement. Now it appears that GM will supply Nikola with only its Hydrotec hydrogen fuel-cell technology to integrate into the EV manufacturer's commercial class 7 and class 8 zero-emission semi-trucks. So, the Badger is probably dead.\nNikola now sees semi-trucks as the company's \"core business\" and fuel cells as an increasingly important segment of the semi-truck market thanks to their efficiency in weight and consumption. It expects to begin testing by the end of 2021.\nIt has received pre-orders from Anheuser-Busch and a few other companies, but it doesn't expect deliveries until 2023. Hydrogen fueling stations are key to its strategy, both providing a source of revenue and necessary fueling infrastructure for the trucks to operate, but they also cost a lot. In its March 2020 investor deck, Nikola said a single station capable of fueling 210 trucks a day would cost $16.6 million. Its initial planned network of 700 stations would cost roughly $11.6 billion.\nNikola was also accused of misrepresentation, and its executive chairman and founder stepped down.\nAt the time of the SPAC merger, it projected an optimistic forecast of more than $3 billion in revenue by 2024, with a net income of $145 million. Most of that revenue was expected to come from its Badger truck, which is no longer in the plans. Yet its market cap is still almost $6 billion.\nHyliion (HYLN)\nHyliion, founded in 2015 in Austin, went public in October 2020 through the SPAC Tortoise Acquisition Corp. (SHLL). In March 2019, automotive parts manufacturer Dana Inc. made an equity investment into Hyliion, and together they are manufacturing and marketing Class 8 EVs to Dana's customers, including Volvo, Navistar, and Peterbilt.\nHyliion's strategy is unique, and a very different strategy from Nikola. Essentially it generates electricity onboard the truck using compressed natural gas (CNG). This should be a benefit for longer-range trucking. Hyliion's Hypertruck concept involves an all-electric drivetrain utilizing Dana's electric motor, inverter, and axle technologies. The truck's batteries are fueled by onboard tanks of CNG. With some 700 CNG stations already operating nationwide, it believes that there no need to build out expensive superchargers or hydrogen infrastructure.\nKuwait-based logistics company, Agility, has already placed an order for 1,000 Hypertrucks with initial deliveries targeted in 2022. Combined with a fully electric drivetrain and a natural gas-powered onboard generator to recharge the battery, the Hypertruck ERX will provide more than 1,000 miles of range.\nHyliion will eventually compete with Nikola (FCEV) and the Tesla battery-based Semi, but it plans to have a longer range and lower operating costs. Its HyperTruck ERX is expected to be available in 2021. It also has a hybrid-electric truck.\nThe combination with SHLL had an estimated market cap of about $1.5 billion, with approximately $530 million going to the company, including a $325 million fully committed PIPE. At approximately $13.50 per share, its current market cap is approximately $2.2 billion, significantly down from its peak. Hyliion projects $2 billion in revenue in 2024, which it claims is only about 2% of the addressable market.\nXL Fleet (XL)\nXL Fleet is a 10-year old company that went public through the SPAC Pivotal. XL is different because it provides fleet electrification modifications for ICE trucks across a wide range of vehicle classes (class 2-5) and types. It has over 200 of the largest commercial and municipal fleets as customers, with more than 3,200 XL systems deployed and over 130 million miles driven by customers to date. XL's customer base includes FedEx, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Verizon, the City of Boston, Seattle Fire Department, Yale University, and Harvard University.\nXL's business model is essentially retrofitting existing trucks to be hybrids and then later expanding into fully electric truck conversions. It claims to be creating a fully integrated platform for this. It remains to be seen if the retrofitting business will continue to grow or will it diminish when more trucks are designed and manufactured with EV capabilities.\nUnlike some other EV companies that have no revenue yet because they are still developing products, XL is more of a small company doing low-volume retrofits. It had $7.2 million in revenue in 2019, $21 million in 2020, and estimates $76 million in 2021, but it forecasts $1.3 billion in revenue in 2024 in its investor presentation. It plans to do this by expanding its product line from hybrid to plug-in hybrid to fully electric across a broader range of trucks. It claims to have a $220 million sales pipeline for the next 12 months.\nShort-seller, Muddy Waters, claimed after talking to former XL Fleet employees, that it believed the company significantly exaggerated its order backlog, that the return on investment for the company's products was likely negative, and that it would not be able to compete with big car makers on electrification. The company thoroughly refuted these claims.\nThe original enterprise valuation was approximately $1.4 billion at a $10 share price for the merger. Its price jumped by about 35% but has since gone back down to $12.40 for a market cap of about $1.8 billion. Although XL Fleet has revenue and other EV companies don't, this may not be an advantage. It appears to be a small company for many years that has gone public at a high valuation with grand plans. The risks are in its ability to make a jump from $76 million in 2021 to $1.3 billion in 2024, as well as the question about retrofitting being replaced by new EV trucks by then.\nXos (NGAC)\nXos Trucks specializes in the field of manufacturing fully electric commercial vehicles. It features a software platform that is designed to accommodate an extensive variety of medium-duty bodies, wheelbase, and range requirements up to 200 miles. It was founded in 2016 and headquartered in North Hollywood, California. It received $20 million of investment in 2020 and now is going public through a merger with the SPAC ExtGen Acquisition Corporation (NGAC) at an estimated proforma value of $1.965 billion.\nIts focus is on medium- and heavy-duty last mile and return-to-base segments (class 5/6, class 6/7, and class 7/8) commercial fleets and specialty vehicles. Some vehicles are currently in production and in regular on-road operations with key fleet customers, and it claimed 6,000 unit orders in backlog.\nIts MD-platform is for classes 5-6 for pickup and delivery. Its HD X-Platform is an adaptable chassis for highway, vocational, and severe work conditions. Its market is for customers with highly predictable routes that allow for batteries designed for a more limited range. A significantly larger frame and smaller battery pack allow for reduced density.\nXos has a bundled all-in-one offering that allows fleets to access all the tools and services they need to go electric with a single point of contact at a fixed monthly expense.\nXos had $3 million in revenue in 2020 and estimates $14 million in 2021. However, it forecasts $5.2 billion in revenue in 2025. At the current stock price of $10.30, its market cap is approximately $2 billion, about the same as its original SPAC transaction.\nLion Electric (NGA)\nLion Electric is a Canadian company founded by Marc Bédard in 2008. Its focus is to be a leader in designing, developing, and manufacturing purpose-built urban electric vehicles; vehicles that are specifically designed as delivery trucks, refuse trucks, bucket trucks, moving trucks, school buses, and shuttle buses. It has over 300 all-electric vehicles on the road today.\nIn November 2020, it announced that it was going public through the SPAC NGA. The transaction had an estimated pro forma enterprise value of $1.5 billion.\nIt plans on seven new truck models and one new school bus, for a total of 15 all-electric vehicles, representing a full line-up from class 5 to class 8 electric trucks and a full line-up of electric school buses. Its vehicles are produced at its existing manufacturing plant, which has the capacity for the production of up to 2,500 vehicles per year. It intends to open a new plant in the U.S. capable of delivering over 20,000 Lion trucks and buses per year by 2022.\nIts all-electric class 6 and class 8 commercial urban trucks combine power, comfort, and modern technology. Custom-built chassis and cabin designed specifically for an all-electric heavy-duty vehicle. The LionC is an all-electric Type C school bus manufactured in North America. The body and chassis were specifically designed to deliver optimal performance. The LionM is an all-electric midi/minibus that meets paratransit and public transportation requirements. Created and designed specifically for the paratransit market, the is spacious and offers unique features that provide enhanced security and accessibility to the end-users.\nLion Electric had $29 million in revenue in 2020 and expects $204 million in 2021. It forecasts revenue to jump to $3.6 billion a few years later in 2024. Its current market cap is approximately $3.6 billion based on its current stock price of $18.33.\nLightning eMotors (GIK)\nLightning eMotors, formerly Lightning Systems, was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Loveland, Colorado. It provides fleet electrification for familiar commercial vehicle platforms by retrofitting them with its electric powertrains. Lightning eMotors produces electric fleet medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including delivery trucks, shuttle buses, passenger vans, ambulances, bucket trucks, chassis-cab models, and city transit buses. It focuses on urban commercial zero-emission vehicles with a full range of class 3 through class 7 battery-electric and fuel-cell electric vehicles.\nLighting eMotors helps commercial fleets achieve their sustainability goals by offering zero-emission battery-electric vans, trucks, and buses based on familiar, proven vehicles from manufacturers such as Ford and GM. It works with customers, to help them identify their unique commercial electric vehicle, charging, and grant support needs.\nThe Lightning products include integrated all-electric powertrains for the Ford Transit 350HD passenger and cargo vans, Ford E-450 shuttle bus and cutaway models, Ford F-59 step/food van, Ford F-550 cargo trucks and buses, Chevrolet 6500XD Low Cab Forward model, and 30-foot, 35-foot, and 40-foot transit buses.\nLightning has 120 vehicles on the road, and 1,500 vehicles already on order from customers. In addition to making vehicles and powertrains, Lightning also provides a full suite of charging solutions for customers.\nThe deal with GIK has an enterprise value of $650 million, although there is also an Earnout of 20.0% of total pro forma shares outstanding to Lightning eMotors shareholders if the stock crosses certain price thresholds.\nAt the current price, of $11.73, GIK has a market cap of approximately $1 billion, a little more than the original transaction valuation. Similar to XL Fleet, Lightning has the risk that retrofitting may only be an interim business opportunity until more EV trucks are produced.\nPublic Chinese EV Companies\nChina will be the biggest EV market opportunity, and EV start-ups may do better there because there isn't as much entrenched competition from domestic auto companies. China is already the largest EV market in the world, with almost a million EVs sold in 2019. Its EV market represents almost half of the global EV sales volume and is much larger than the U.S. market.\nThe Chinese government has ambitions to become a global leader in new energy vehicles. Soon after the coronavirus outbreak subsided within the country, Chinese authorities announced new policies to support the auto and electric vehicle industries.\nThese Chinese companies are traded through American depository shares (ADS) that contain certain risks. There are financial reporting and transparency risks with these companies, and on top of that, the newer companies are being classified as \"emerging growth\" companies that are already exempt from certain transparency requirements set out in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Like the previous EV stock, these stocks have also been very volatile.\nIn addition to legacy auto manufacturers like BYD, there are also three Chinese EV companies that are publicly traded through American depositary shares.\nBYD Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:BYDDY)\nBYD, which means build your dreams, is the automotive subsidiary of the Chinese multinational BYD Co Ltd. It was founded in January 2003, following BYD Company's acquisition of Tsinchuan Automobile Company. The company produces automobiles, buses, electric bicycles, forklifts, rechargeable batteries, and trucks. The current model range of automobiles includes electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and petrol-engined vehicles. Thirteen years ago, on the advice of his famously skeptical lieutenant, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett made a $232 million investment in BYD, a relatively unknown Chinese car company.\nBy parlaying BYD's rechargeable battery technology into a fast-growing carmaking operation, it gained a foothold in the fledgling electric vehicle market, building longer-lasting batteries and cheaper vehicles than American and Japanese manufacturers were managing to do at the time. In BYD, Buffett and Munger believed they had found a company with a shot at one day becoming the largest player in a global automobile market that was inevitably going electric.\nBYD's start to 2021 was strong with 19,871 plug-in electric cars sold in January in China, including hybrid plug-ins. That was a big increase over 2020 but not as much as 2019.\nLI Auto (LI)\nLixiang, formerly known as Chehejia (\"Car and Home\"), was founded in 2015 and went public in the U.S. on July 30th, 2020. It is a Beijing-based electric-vehicle startup with vertically integrated manufacturing. It designs, researches, manufactures, sells, and offers services featuring a few models of electric vehicles.\nThe company's SUVs are hybrids of a sort. They use electric motors (one on the front axle and one on the rear), but those motors are powered by a combination of a 40.5kWh battery packanda 1.2-liter turbocharged engine paired to a 45-liter fuel tank and a 100kW electric generator, which generates power for the battery pack in real-time. The idea is that the car can be driven for about 100 miles on battery power alone, but it has a total range of nearly 500 miles when leveraging the combustion engine generator.\nThe Company's primary product is an SUV under its brand Li ONE. It also sells peripheral products and provides related services, such as charging stalls, vehicle internet connection services, and extended lifetime warranties. Li Auto is looking to sell a variety of SUVs built on its hybrid technology that range from around $21,000 to about $70,000. The company started shipping its first model in late 2019. It's a midsize SUV is well-appointed and has lots of touchscreens and technology. A full-size premium version is planned for release in 2022.\nDeliveries of Li ONEs were 14,464 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a 67.0% quarter-over-quarter increase and setting a new quarterly record. Deliveries for the full year 2020 reached 32,624 vehicles. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $635 million.\nLI auto went public on July 30th, 2020, raising $1.1 billion at an initial price of $15.50 per share but quickly reached almost $24. It is currently valued at approximately $37 billion at a price of approximately $25.72 per share.\nXPeng (XPEV)\nXiaopeng (XPeng) Motors is a Chinese electric vehicle and technology company that designs and manufactures smart cars. It was founded in 2015 and went public on August 27, 2020, using American depository shares, raising about $1 billion. To date, it has raised about $2.6 billion.\nXPeng aims its EVs at technology-savvy middle-class Chinese consumers, with prices ranging from $22,000 to $45,000 after government subsidies. In some ways, it is a Tesla knock-off at a much lower price. XPeng started production of the G3 in November 2018, and as of July 31, 2020, delivered 18,741. It started production of the P7 and began delivery in May 2020, and as of July 31, 2020, it had delivered 1,966 EVs. The P7 has a range of more than 400 miles. It plans to launch a third Smart EV, a sedan, in 2021. The G3 was among the top-three best-selling electric SUVs in China in 2019.\nXPeng is interesting because it has a platform strategy and is moving aggressively into autonomous driving. It uses a platform strategy to expand product offerings by launching one Smart EV model each year to broaden the addressable market. It builds new models on two highly flexible Smart EV platforms, called David and Edward, respectively. The David platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,600 millimeters to 2,800 millimeters, and the Edward platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,800 millimeters to 3,100 millimeters. It also adopted a platform approach for software systems.\nXPeng claims to be developing an autonomous driving capability for its EVs. The P7 is the first production vehicle to feature the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Xavier system-on-a-chip (SoC) autonomous driving platform. The company's Smart Electric Platform Architecture (SEPA) runs on 2 chips - NVIDIA for the XPILOT and Qualcomm's Snapdragon™ 820A for intelligent services and infotainment, including cameras inside and outside, radars, HD-map, and ultrasonic sensors. Like Tesla, it claims it can create sufficiently-autonomous driving without lidar.\nTo enhance brand recognition and allow more people to experience its Smart EVs, it deployed a small number of Smart EVs in a ride-hailing service in Guangzhou on a trial basis, but it has no current plan to scale up a ride-hailing service.\nXpeng sees first-quarter 2021 deliveries rising 450% year-over-year to 12,500 vehicles. Revenues are expected to increase 533% from a year ago. The company didn't provide bottom-line estimates for the quarter, but will likely post another net loss as it ramps up manufacturing, invests in R&amp;D, and builds out a new manufacturing plant set to open in 2022.\nXpeng reported selling 12,964 vehicles in Q4 2020, up 303% from a year ago. It delivered a total of 27,041 vehicles in 2020, up 112%. It makes the P7 sedan, a rival to the made-in-China Tesla Model 3, and the small G3 SUV.\nThe stock opened on August 27, 2020 at a price of $15 and a valuation of $11 billion, but its stock jumped more than 40% shortly after. Its current valuation is about $35 billion at a stock price of approximately $36.13 per share. It had about $300 million in revenue in 2019 with a loss of about $500 million.\nNio (NIO)\nUnlike previous companies, Nio has been a public company for some time. It originally went public in the U.S. back in September of 2018, selling IPO shares at $6.26 and raising $1 billion.\nNio's IPO was far from smooth. After going public at $6.26 per share, it traded down to nearly $1. Then in the middle of the coronavirus outbreak, Nio received a much-needed investment of $1 billion from investors, including state-backed entities.\nNio designs, jointly manufactures, and sells smart and connected premium electric vehicles, attempting to develop next-generation technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving, and artificial intelligence. Joint manufacturing means that it uses a state-owned contract manufacturer to build its cars.\nNio plans to provide customers with comprehensive, convenient, and innovative charging solutions and other user-centric services. It began deliveries of the ES8, a 7-seater high-performance premium electric SUV in China in June 2018, and its variant, the six-seater ES8, in March 2019. Nio officially launched the ES6, a 5-seater high-performance premium electric SUV, in December 2018 and began deliveries in June 2019. It officially launched the EC6, a 5-seater smart premium electric Coupe SUV, in December 2019 with deliveries in 2020.\nNio sold 17,353 EVs in Q4/2020 and 43,728 for the year. It warned a shortage in chips and batteries will force a production slowdown to 7,500 a month in Q2 from 10,000 vehicles a month in February.\nNio currently trades at more than $43 per share, including a big jump recently, for a valuation of approximately $48 billion. It had revenue of $2.3 billion in 2019 for a loss of $3.8 billion.\nSummary\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this should provide exciting new investment opportunities. However, the investment terrain is complex. There are dozens of new start-ups where the public can now invest that were previously exclusively venture capital investment opportunities. Many of these are following different roads to success. There are legacy auto manufacturers that could prosper or get destroyed in this transition. There are some exciting new EV company opportunities in China. And then there is Tesla.\nThis EV roadmap is intended to help investors explore different roads to investment by explaining the basic strategies for these EV companies. These roads can have different opportunities and risks, and the roadmap helps to frame these. Above all, valuation is an overriding risk that is highlighted throughout this article.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>New Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNew Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-19 14:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.\nLast October, I wrote a popular article providing...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车","01211":"比亚迪股份","NKLA":"Nikola Corporation","LI":"理想汽车","GP":"GreenPower Motor Company Inc.","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","GOEV":"Canoo Inc.","WKHS":"Workhorse Group, Inc.","F":"福特汽车","002594":"比亚迪","TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来","FSR":"菲斯克","HYLN":"Hyliion Holdings Corp."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1196402560","content_text":"Summary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.\nLast October, I wrote a popular article providing a roadmap for investing in electric vehicles, but since then, so much has changed: new entrants, new strategies, fluctuating valuations, etc.\nSo, I updated and greatly expanded the previous EV investment roadmap.\nThis update includes a deeper look at valuations for 23 EV companies with revenue projections, when available.\nIt also classifies these EV companies into their primary market categories and summarizes their different strategies.\n\nPhoto by Sven Loeffler/iStock via Getty Images\nMy article Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap published five months ago, was popular, and some followers have requested an update. Many new EV companies entered the market, most of them through SPACs. Valuations fluctuated wildly, and there has been a great deal of publicity around these companies.\nThis new updated EV investment roadmap is greatly expanded. In addition to updating the strategies and progress of companies previously discussed, I expanded the number of companies covered. This article also groups EV companies into their primary markets, enabling better comparisons and evaluation of market opportunities. In addition, it includes a comparative valuation chart showing every company's market cap with a comparison to projected revenue, where possible. This takes advantage (good or bad) of looking at the long-term revenue forecasts provided in SPAC mergers that public companies can't make.\nIn addition to the EV manufacturers discussed here, there are also EV investment opportunities in charging station companies, battery manufacturers, and battery materials companies. These were covered in the original roadmap and may also be updated in a later article.\nApproximately 2 million EVs were sold in 2019, and although the number declined along with all auto sales in 2020, it is forecasted to increase in 2021 and reach 8-10 million by 2025. Some forecast that EV sales will be greater than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2030, or even earlier. The automobile market appears to be moving toward a historical transformation, and exceptional investment gains can be made by anticipating new emerging industries and investing in the eventual winners of those new industries. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)are obvious examples. Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to create a new emerging industry.\nThere are also significant risks. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to be released in the next three years, which will drive rapid growth in EV sales. However, the expected sales from these new models, as well as the increasing expectations from Tesla, most likely exceed the total projected market. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the companies covered here won't exist five years from now. It reminds me of the internet bubble of the late 1990s when scores of internet-based companies went public with little or no revenue. Almost all of these failed within three years -- however, a couple, including Amazon, went on to enormous success.\nEVs provide a major new investment opportunity with high risks. To succeed, you need to have a clear EV investment roadmap.\nSo, how can you invest in this new emerging market? The EV landscape is complex and investment opportunities are varied. While Tesla is the unquestioned leader in EVs, some consider it overvalued and unlikely to show exceptional returns to new investors. The current U.S. legacy automakers are committed to introducing many new EVs in the next few years, and they have some entrenched advantages with volume manufacturing capabilities, a dealer infrastructure, and loyal customers. There are exciting new EV start-ups in the U.S. that have come public this year, mostly through Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), and there are several interesting publicly traded Chinese EV manufacturers.\nThis new roadmap for EV investment classifies companies into three primary markets segments:\n\nTheConsumer Retailsegment includes EVs sold to consumers individually, such as SUVs, pickup trucks, sedans, etc.\nTheCommercial Deliverysegment includes local delivery EV vans and trucks sold to fleets.\nTheMedium- and Long-Haul Truckingsegment includes heavier Class 4 - Class 8 trucks, as well as special industrial vehicles.\n\nIn addition, it categorizesLegacy ManufacturersandChinese EV Companies. This enables investors to evaluate investment opportunities by considering unique opportunities within each market segment.\nThere is an enormous amount of investment optimism for EVs, and retail investors have been aggressively buying into EV stocks with seemingly no regard for valuation. Then there is the additional challenge of valuing companies with no revenue, especially those coming public through SPACs. So, valuation is an important investment consideration.\nSo let's start by looking at an overview of comparative EV valuations.\nEV Investment Valuation Overview\nThe following chart summarizes valuations for 23 EV companies, including several legacy companies. For SPACs, market cap estimates are computed using the pro forma number of shares at closing, otherwise using the valuation of the SPAC prior to closing drastically underestimates the valuation, which may be misleading to novice investors. Price/Sales ratios (market cap divided by revenue) are used to compare valuations. As a benchmark, current P/S ratios vary. For example, auto and truck companies have a ratio of 2.7X. Software companies have the highest ratios of over 10X.\nIn the chart, companies that currently have revenue show current P/S ratios. Where projections are available, projected P/S ratios are computed. A note of caution, however. Many of the EV companies came public through SPACs and published their projections (which public companies cannot do), and many of these are likely to prove unrealistic.\nAll of the longer-term revenue projections come from the company (C) forecasts with a SPAC. Some of these may turn out to be accurate, not many are most likely unrealistic. Some, like Lucid, Faraday, and Arrival forecast hitting more than $10 billion in revenue in a few years, when it took Tesla more than 10. Things are different now and they might achieve these, but they could also find that it will take longer to complete development, ramp up production, and create enough customer demand. Many companies may also find that there will be significant capital requirements to achieve this type of growth, and shareholders will be diluted.\n\nTesla, the \"gold standard\" in EVs, has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, which many people believe is overvalued. Its market cap is approximately 20X 2020 revenue and 10X estimated 2022 revenue.\nTesla (TSLA)\nIn the U.S., and to a lesser extent in China, Tesla is the dominant EV provider. It has approximately 60% of the U.S. EV market and about 20% of the market in China. I own a Tesla and love it, but an investment in Tesla stock requires getting comfortable with its valuation. Tesla has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, although declining lately, which some consider still overvalued while others see upside potential.\nThe investment opportunity with Tesla is based on the expectation that it will continue to dominate the EV market, or at least maintain significant market share, despite much greater competition from the expected introduction of hundreds of new EV models in the next few years.\nThere is a great deal already published about Tesla, so I'll move on.\nLegacy Automakers\nSome people think that the legacy automakers will simply fade away. Historically, that was the case in some other industries, but it is not going to happen to most automakers. They are not standing still waiting to become obsolete. Most have aggressive strategies to replace ICE vehicles with EVs. GM plans to invest $27 billion and build and launch as many as 30 new EV models by 2025. Ford plans to invest $29 billion in EVs by 2025 and launch as many as 16 EVs in the next two years. Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY)has also committed billions to develop new EVs.\nThe competitive advantage that legacy automakers have in selling their new EVs is their dealer network. Will new EV customers prefer to continue going to their regular auto dealer to buy their new EV?\nAlmost all legacy automakers worldwide are developing and launching EVs including Volkswagen, Peugeot, Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi, Hyundai/Kia. Let's look a little more closely at GM and Ford as the leaders in the U.S.\nGeneral Motors (GM)\nGM has committed to introducing 20 new electric vehicles by 2023, including EVs across Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC, and Buick. It recently announced that it has already sold out the first-year production of its Hummer electric pickup. By mid-decade, it expects to sell a million EVs per year in its two largest markets: North America and China. As a reference point, Tesla reported deliveries of 367,500 vehicles globally in 2019.\nGM has a solid platform strategy for its EVs. It plans on building its EVs using five interchangeable drive units and three different motors from its Ultium Drive System platform. Ultium energy options range from 50 to 200 kWh, which could enable an estimated range of up to 400 miles. Most of its EVs will have 400-volt battery packs and up to 200 kW fast-charging capability while the truck platform will have 800-volt battery packs and 350 kW fast-charging capabilities.\nThe key building blocks of the Ultium battery system are large-scale, high-energy cells. Engineered in partnership with LG Energy Solutions, they use both advanced chemistry and a smart cell design that's optimized for a broad portfolio of EVs. GM engineers and scientists are actively researching and testing new elements in battery chemistry to lower costs and improve charge times. Ultium can contain either vertically- or horizontally-stacked cells to integrate into vehicle design: vertically for trucks, SUVs, and crossovers, or horizontally for cars and performance vehicles. As new chemistry is developed and becomes available, the battery management system could digitally update the modules.\nGM also has other EV opportunities with its BrightDrop commercial EV service and its Cruise subsidiary. BrightDrop will not just sell delivery EVs, it will provide an entire service platform for commercial delivery customers. Its set of electric delivery vehicles starts with the EV600 and includes the BrightDrop EP1, a pod-like electric pallet. SeeGeneral Motors' Aggressive EV/AV Strategies May Payoff Big.\nWith its highest stock price of $61.65, GM's current market cap is approximately $89 billion, increasing primarily because of its progress with EVs. This approximately 3X valuation in 2018, but still only 13% of Tesla.\nFord (F)\nFord is also investing heavily in EVs. It just introduced the Mustang Mach-E, a battery-powered crossover with sports car styling, and plans to introduce an all-electric version of its best-selling F-150 pickup later this year. Also, planned is an electric edition of the full-size Transit van, which has been popular in the commercial delivery market. Ford has confirmed plans to build a luxury Lincoln crossover on a battery-powered platform provided by Rivian. The automaker also plans to introduce two new midsize electric crossovers, one each for the Ford and Lincoln brands by 2023.\nMustang Mach-E. Source: Ford\nFord's market cap is approximately $51 billion, twice its previous market cap, and also increasing.\nConsumer Retail EV Companies\nThe consumer retail market has some unique characteristics for new EV companies. Sales are made individually, not in fleets. This diversifies the risk upon launch because only a sufficient number of customers need to be attracted to the new EV. A wave of popularity can provide terrific momentum.\nHowever, the lack of a dealer network can be an impediment. Selling EVs directly to consumers instead of through dealers is prohibited in most states. By law, auto manufacturers can't compete with franchised dealers. These are laws that go back many decades to protect dealers. This can be a major impediment for new companies without established independent dealer franchises. So, new AV companies. like Tesla, need to sell their vehicles online. Tesla has successfully done this, but it took a lot of work and time. Lack of a dealer network also creates impediments in service.\nIn addition, over the next 4-5 years, autonomous capabilities will be increasingly important to luxury vehicles. This may prove to be a challenge to start-up EV companies because they can't afford to develop this technology.\nLet's look closer at the alternative consumer retail EV investments.\nLucid Motors (CCIV)\nLucid was founded in 2007 under the name Atieva and originally focused on building electric vehicle batteries and powertrains for other vehicle manufacturers. The company rebranded itself as Lucid Motors in October 2016 and shifted its strategy to develop an all-electric, high-performance, luxury vehicle. Shortly after that, it encountered financial difficulties and struggled to get short-term funding. In 2018 it raised more than $1 billion in investment, primarily from Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund, and gave up a majority of the company.\nLucid Motors reached an agreement to become a publicly-traded company through a merger with the SPAC Churchill Capital IV Corp., in one of the largest deals SPAC EV deals. The combined company, in which Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund will continue to be the largest shareholder, had a transaction equity value of $11.75 billion (for $10/share). At the same time, it closed a PIPE investment priced at $15 a share, giving it an implied pro forma equity value of $24 billion. Rumors about this deal circulated before the transaction was formally announced, making it one of the most anticipated SPAC deals. The hype and speculation drove up the stock price of Churchill Capital IV Corp. from its opening price of $10 a share to almost $60. I believe that some of this may have been driven by novice SPAC investors who didn't realize that the valuation of CCIV didn't include the eventual valuation of Lucid. The share price dropped more than 30% after the details of the deal were announced. It's also likely that Lucid renegotiated the terms of the merger based on the price jump.\nThe company's first product is the Lucid Air, a well-equipped luxury electric vehicle that features 406 miles of projected range and 480 horsepower with a starting price of $77,400, or $69,900 after the U.S. Federal Tax Credit of $7,500. This new Lucid Air model is positioned as a high-performance, ultra-efficient luxury EV sedan in a line of future vehicles that are expected to include Lucid Air Touring, Grand Touring, and Dream Edition versions.\nThe company plans to begin production and deliveries of the Lucid Air in North America in the second half of 2021. Previously the company aimed to begin deliveries earlier in 2021. It intends to sell the car in Europe in 2022, followed by China in 2023. Lucid vehicles will be produced at its new factory in Casa Grande, Arizona. The company plans to expand the factory in phases in the coming years to have the capacity to produce 365,000 units per year at scale. The initial phase of the $700 million factory construction was completed late last year and will have the capacity to produce 30,000 vehicles a year.\nLucid also apparently has a commitment to build an assembly plant in Saudi Arabia, which was rumored to be a condition of the $1 billion investment from the Saudi public fund. The Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund also provided $600 million in bridge financing and invested in the SPAC deal as well. So, while this assembly plant may be expensive and may not be critical, it will most likely need to happen.\nLucid has ambitious plans to achieve $14 billion in revenue in 2025, and its current stock price at $29.17, which gives it a market cap of more than $46 billion, may already reflect those ambitions. Its market cap is roughly the same as Ford.\nFisker (FSR)\nFisker, which had its origins with Fisker Automotive, is an interesting story that ended in bankruptcy. Henrik Fisker originally co-founded Fisker Automotive in 2007. He was responsible for designing many premium cars such as the Aston Martin. Subsequently, Fisker Automotive had to deal with a Tesla lawsuit against Fisker Automotive alleging it stole Tesla's technology, a controversial $528.7 million conditional loan from the Department of Energy, a recall of its battery produced by A123, and the loss of several hundred vehicles in hurricane Sandy. Henrik Fisker resigned in March 2013 because of disagreements over business strategy and in November 2013, Fisker filed its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case.\nHowever, Henrik Fisker retained the Fisker brand and trademarks, and in 2016 he started another electric vehicle company named Fisker Inc. with the Fisker brand and trademarks. In 2019, Fisker shifted from developing a sports car with a solid-state battery to the Ocean SUV featuring a lithium-ion battery, which it later abandoned for a solid-state battery.\nFisker is positioning itself in a unique segment for those who want the most environmentally friendly EV. While this may be an early growth segment for EVs, it's difficult to estimate its eventual competitive advantage and the size of this environmentally-friendly market segment.\nThe Ocean is a crossover made of recycled metal and plastic with an expected base price of $37,499, and an expected lease of less than $400 a month. Fisker's plan is essentially a lease-only business model that lets customers keep a vehicle for years or return it at any time. It aims to source motors, batteries, and other components from technical partnerships with automakers and will outsource production from existing auto plants. Fisker is currently taking reservations at $250 for the Ocean. It also announced an agreement with Foxconn to jointly develop a vehicle pioneering a new market segment to be sold globally under the Fisker brand commencing in Q4 2023. at the end of 2022. Production will start at Magna Steyr's manufacturing facilities in Europe. At the end of February 2021, it had 12,467 cancellable reservations.\nFisker Ocean. Source: Fisker\nFisker went public using a SPAC (Spartan Energy). The original combination with SPAQ in October 2020 was valued at $2.9 billion with a cash investment of approximately $1 billion. The stock currently trades at approximately $21 per share, after reaching a high of $28.50, from the original price of $10, which is a market cap of $4.6 billion. Fisker projects $3.3 billion in revenue in 2023. It had almost $1 billion in cash at the end of 2020 and expected to use almost half of this in 2021: $250 million on operating expenses and $250 million in capital investments. If the Ocean is delayed into 2023, Fisker risks missing its revenue objective and will potentially need additional cash to complete development and launch.\nFaraday Future (PSAC)\nFaraday Future was originally established in May 2014 by Chinese businessman Jia Yueting. It is headquartered in Los Angeles and has offices in Silicon Valley, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu. Faraday Future also had a turbulent history. In 2016, it struggled financially, and in 2017 some key executives departed over a dispute about financial issues. They later founded Canoo.\nIn December 2018 the company announced layoffs due to a cash crunch and financial troubles. The company's founder Jia Yueting filed for personal bankruptcy in the United States' federal court in Delaware on October 14, 2019. Following Jia's personal bankruptcy, he decided to step down from his role as CEO of Faraday Future in order to assume a new position as the Chief Product and User Officer. He was replaced as CEO by Carsten Breitfeld, the former CEO at rival electric vehicle startup Byton.\nSomehow, Faraday was able to raise $2.3 billion in private funding over 5 rounds from a variety of investors. In early 2018, it received $1.5 billion in funding from an undisclosed investor from Hong Kong.\nFaraday's flagship product offering will be the FF 91, featuring 1,050 HP, 0-60 mph in less than 2.4 seconds, zero gravity seats with the largest 60-degree reclining angles, and a user experience designed to create a mobile, connected, and luxurious living space. The FF 91 is targeted to launch in 2022.\nFF 91. Source: Faraday Future\nIts strategic partners include one of China's top three OEMs and a critical Chinese city, which the company believes will help establish its presence in the Chinese vehicle market.\nFaraday Future plans several cars based on its Variable Platform Architecture. FF 91 is the first production vehicle and flagship model. Pricing will range between $120,000 and upwards of $200,000, which places it against formidable opponents. Faraday Future is already looking forward to expanding its range with a pair of smaller models named FF 81 and FF 71. The FF 81 is planned to be priced at $75,000 to 95,000 with a 2023 release. The FF 71 is planned to be priced at $45,000 to $65,000 with a planned release of 2024.\nThe Primary Manufacturing Facility for FF 91 is in Hanford, CA with contract manufacturing for future models in Gunsan, South Korea.\nFaraday Future is planning high-Level automation with a Level-3 capable system using a redundant safety architecture based on NVIDIA Xavier System-on-a-chip. It will be capable of highway auto-drive and hardware ready for advanced auto-drive. It is targeting full autonomous valet parking & summon in any parking lot or structure. Eventually, it expects full auto-drive, including full 360˚ sensor coverage for advanced auto-drive & auto-park features.\nIn January 2021, Faraday Future announced that the company would go public through a reverse merger with the special purpose acquisition company Property Solutions Acquisition Corp. (PSAC). The combined company will be valued at $3.4 billion. Faraday Future is expected to set up contract manufacturing operations in China through their partnership with Geely. Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn is also expected to serve as an additional strategic partner.\nFaraday Future projects $10.5 billion in revenue in 2024 and $21.5 billion in 2025. Revenue is expected to start in 2022 with the delivery of 2,400 vehicles for $504 million. Most likely these projections could prove to be optimistic. At a current stock price of approximately $12.80, it has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nLordstown Motors (RIDE)\nLordstown Motors based in Lordstown, Ohio, was originally founded in 2018 by Steve Burns, the former CEO of Workhorse Group. The company licensed technology from Workhorse in return for royalties and a 10% ownership. Lordstown is named after the famous GM Lordstown manufacturing plant, which it acquired in November 2019 in an unusual transaction. GM announced that it was closing the plant and was under a great deal of pressure for that decision. So, GM \"sold\" the plant to a company that was renamed Lordstown for an estimated $20 million that it loaned to the acquiring company. Subsequently, the sale was redefined to be part of a $75 million investment by GM, of which $50 million was an in-kind exchange for the plant.\nLordstown went public through the SPAC DiamondPeak Holdings Corp. in 2020. It currently has more than 400 employees.\nIts first product is the Lordstown Endurance, a full-sized EV pickup truck. Lordstown is positioning Endurance for the pickup fleet market segment. The expected price is $52,000+, and it claimed to have more than 100,000 pre-orders by January 2021. However, a recent research article published by a short seller claimed \"Our research has revealed that Lordstown's order book consists of fake or entirely non-binding orders, from customers that generally do not even have fleets of vehicles.\" Lordstown is disputing that article.\nIt believes the fleet pickup market segment is underserved with no current EV-focused competition. It estimates that the full-sized pick-up truck fleet market is 1.2 million vehicles per year in the U.S., but it's more fragmented than other truck fleets. Pickup \"fleets\" tend to be much smaller and local, so there may not be much of a market distinction for a small company buying several EV pickups from a traditional auto dealer. About half of the total U.S. pickup market is classified as fleet sales, meaning more than one.\nEven though Lordstown is targeting the commercial fleet market, it is a similar product to the Ford EV F-150. So I classify it in the consumer EV category. It is a class 2 vehicle. Lordstown also may enter the SUV market in the longer-term.\nThe Endurance will compete against future models from Rivian and Tesla, as well as Ford and GM in ICE pick-ups and their upcoming EV pick-ups. Ford plans on selling its EV F-150 in mid-2022. Initial production of the Endurance is expected in the second half of 2021, so it may have a short market advantage. Nevertheless, it forecasts selling 65,000 vehicles in 2023 and 107,000 in 2024. These estimates could be a large percentage of the EV pick-up market in those years.\nAt the SPAC merger, the implied valuation for Lordstown was $1.6 billion, including a $500 million PIPE and the $75 million by GM. Lordstown's financial projections appear to be aggressive. It projects to start shipping the Endurance in late 2021 with projected revenue in 2022 of $1.7 billion, increasing to $5.8 billion in 2024. Its stock price at approximately $13.60 values the company at a market cap of approximately $2.2 billion. The value of the company depends on the likelihood of achieving its projections.\nA fleet sales strategy makes sense for Lordstown since it would be too expensive to build a retail sales and service capability. However, it's not clear that this will become a distinct competitive advantage. Some small fleets may still prefer to buy their EV pickups from established local dealers with service capabilities.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nCanoo started as Evelozcity in 2017 and rebranded as Canoo in the spring of 2019. Canoo is a Los Angeles-based company that develops electric vehicles. It has over 350 employees. Canoo has designed a modular electric platform purpose-built to deliver maximum vehicle interior space, which is adaptable to support a wide range of vehicle applications for consumers and businesses. Canoo expects to launch its first consumer model in 2022, simply named the Canoo that will be available by subscription, followed shortly after by a multi-purpose delivery vehicle and a sports vehicle, each built off of the same underlying platform. Canoo went public using a SPAC (Hennessy Capital Acquisition) and now trades as GOEV.\nCanoo's all-electric skateboard-like platform is designed to support both consumer retail and commercial vehicle configurations. The EV leverages Canoo's flat skateboard architecture for a high level of usable interior space. Its commercial vehicle program, expected in 2023, addresses a projected $50B+ last-mile delivery market with an EV platform that maximizes cargo volume.\nHyundai Motor Group said it would jointly develop an electric vehicle platform with the company.\nCanoo's platform strategy is interesting. It could be used as an EV platform for custom fleets of delivery vehicles. It has no AV development, but it claims to be \"AV Ready\" which could be useful for AV companies wanting to build custom AV delivery fleets.\nIts all-electric multi-purpose delivery vehicle is expected to be priced starting at approximately $33,000. It is based on Canoo's proprietary electric platform and will be offered in two initial size variants, with others to follow. Limited availability will begin in 2022, with scaled production and launch planned for 2023. Customers can pre-order the multi-purpose delivery vehicle for a refundable deposit of $100 per vehicle\nIt plans to offer two multi-purpose delivery vehicles: the MPDV1 and the larger MPDV2. The first has a 200-foot cargo volume and a range of 130-200 miles. It offers more capacity than today's ICE delivery vehicles at an affordable price with urban mobility enabled by a space-efficient footprint. The vehicle is also designed to fit within many height-restricted areas like parking garages.\nThe MPDV2 has a cargo volume of 450 feet and a range of 90-190 miles. Its roof and step-in height enable individuals to easily walk-in the vehicle and accommodate a standing position while inside.\nThe original SPAC transaction provided approximately $600 million, with a pro forma equity value of approximately $2.4 billion. Like other SPAC mergers, its stock price has fluctuated. It currently trades at about $15.90 per share for a market cap of approximately $3.7 billion. Canoo projects $2.0 billion in revenue in 2025 from about $500 million in engineering services, $1.2 billion from its consumer vehicle subscriptions, and the remainder from its commercial program. Canoo expects revenue of more than $300 million in 2022 after the launch of its lifestyle consumer vehicle.\nSince its first products are aimed at consumers, as is most of its forecasted 2025 revenue, I categorize it primarily as a consumer EV company. However, I think the design of that Canoo vehicle may not attract enough customers. More importantly, its subscription service way of selling its EV to consumers is risky. I think it has more potential in the commercial market, however, a dual strategy (consumer and commercial) is challenging. I like its skateboard platform design and that could prove to be a competitive advantage.\nRivian\nAlthough not yet public, I include Rivian because it has plans for an IPO as soon as Sept 2021, although it could slip into 2022. There are rumors that the company is targeting a market valuation of approximately $50B. Rivian has already raised more than $8 billion to date from Amazon, Ford, T. Rowe Price, and others.\nRivian has developed and vertically integrated a connected electric platform that can be flexibly applied to a range of applications, including the company's adventure products, as well as B2B products such as the Amazon last-mile delivery vans. The company's initial products, the R1T and R1S, provide a combination of performance, off-road capability, and utility. These vehicles will be produced at Rivian's manufacturing plant in Normal, Ill., with customer deliveries expected to begin in summer 2021. The launch of the R1S three-row electric SUV will follow in August.\nAdditional lower-priced models are being planned. The expected R2 series would include at least two smaller electric vehicles to coincide with the smaller platform, then another platform for R3.\nCommercial Delivery EV Companies\nEV truck companies differ based on the type of truck they are developing. The technology and markets are very different, so I separate them into two categories. The first category includes commercial delivery vehicles.\nCompanies making EV delivery vehicles have some major advantages that could make them good investments. First, delivery vehicles typically travel less than 250 miles during a day, so they can be conveniently recharged overnight. Secondly, they are typically sold in large quantities to fleets. This means that building a retail sales infrastructure is not necessary. It only requires a small salesforce. In addition, maintenance can also be provided at the fleet's operational center, so not as many service centers are required.\nThe disadvantage in this market is that there are a relatively small number of customers that buy in large volumes, so if the EV manufacturer can't get enough large customers, they may not be able to stay in business. GM estimates the combined market opportunity for parcel and food delivery, as well as reverse logistics, in the U.S. will be more than $850 billion by 2025.\nThe commercial market is expected to be a major growth area for EVs. Other start-up automakers like Rivian as well as legacy automakers such as Ford, Daimler, and GM have announced plans to enter the segment. GM recently announced its BrightDrop ecosystem for commercial customers that includes an all-new electric delivery van, the EV600 available by the end of 2021, as well as an integrated autonomous pallet and related services.\nThis group of EV companies focuses primarily on commercial delivery. In general, these are in the light-duty trucks category, although it also includes some medium-duty trucks. This generally includes the following commercial truck classes:\n\nClass 1: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 0-6,000 pounds or 0-2,722 kilograms.\nClass 2: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 6,001-10,000 pounds or 2,722-4,536 kilograms.1\nClass 3: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 10,001-14,000 pounds or 4,536-6,350 kilograms.\n\nIt can also include somewhat larger medium-duty EV delivery trucks:\n\nClass 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.\nClass 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.\n\nEV delivery trucks also have an advantage over ICE vehicles because they can have a greater delivery storage space. Smaller buses and transit vehicles are also included in this category.\nLast-mile package delivery is not an immediate-term autonomous vehicle opportunity because it requires a delivery person to be on the truck anyway.\nWorkhorse Group (WKHS)\nWorkhorse has been a public company for ten years. Originally AMP Electric Vehicles, it was established in 2007 as a developmental-stage vehicle electrification company, focusing on conversions. AMP Electric Vehicles went public in 2010 trading on the OTC market under the AMPD symbol. When the economic benefits of conversion became less certain, it pivoted away from passenger vehicles and began to focus on electrifying commercial vehicles. AMP acquired the Workhorse brand and the Workhorse custom chassis assembly plant in Union City. In March of 2013, AMP formally changed its name to Workhorse Group Incorporated.\nThe Company designs and builds a last-mile delivery electric vehicle. The C-Series EVs cover the larger size of commercial delivery vehicles in Classes 3-5. As part of its solutions, it also develops cloud-based, real-time telematics performance monitoring systems. It sells its vehicles to fleet customers directly and through its primary distributor, Ryder Systems. It is currently focused on bringing the C-Series electric delivery truck to market and fulfilling the existing backlog of orders.\nThe C-Series looks like a viable EV replacement for the 350,000 last-mile delivery vehicles sold in the U.S. annually. It recently announced an increased driving range from 100 miles to 160, which should open more market opportunities. It has a viable short-term go-to-market strategy selling fleets to delivery companies. It currently has test vehicles with UPS, DHL, FedEx, Amazon, and Walmart.\nWorkhorse recently lost out on the United States Postal Services Next Generation Delivery Vehicle project, however, it is in the process of challenging this decision. Additionally, its investment in Lordstown also provides an indirect investment opportunity. On November 7, 2019, the Company entered a transaction with Lordstown Motors to grant LMC a perpetual and worldwide license to certain intellectual property relating to its W-15 electric pickup truck platform and related technology in exchange for royalties, equity interest (approximately 10%) in LMC, and other considerations. This was a $320 million asset for Workhorse at the end of 2020.\nWorkhorse received a significant increase in orders in Q4/2020 but built just seven trucks in the fourth quarter due to production systems and supply chain issues. Workhorse plans to continue to take it slow, striving to build three of its composite-body battery-electric trucks a day in March with a plan to reach 10 trucks a day by the end of June. This makes its original 2021 goal of producing 1,800 trucks unlikely. It partnered with Hitachi and Hitachi Capital America (\"HCA\") to improve the Company's manufacturing, operational, and supply chain capabilities as well as to develop a national dealer network to support Workhorse's sales with vehicle financing options for both dealers and customers.\nWorkhorse has a market cap of approximately $1.9 billion. While Workhorse had ongoing revenue, unlike many other new EV companies, its revenue is still insignificant. It had a revenue of $1.4 million in 2020 and $377,000 in 2019. It has a backlog of over 8,000 vehicles but doesn't expect to be able to build many of those in 2021. It raised $270 million in capital over several financings, providing the Company with additional capital to build its backlog. It had cash of $215 million as of March 1, 2021. Because Workhorse is a traditional public company, it hasn't made long-term financial projections like SPAC-based companies.\nElectric Last Mile (FIII)\nElectric Last Mile, based in Troy Michigan, was founded by Jason Luo, former CEO of Ford China before it was acquired by China's Ningbo Joyson Electronic for $920 million in 2016, including James Taylor, former CEO of GM's Hummer brand and former CEO of electric car maker Karma Automotive. Taylor serves as the company's top executive with Luo as the company's chairman.\nThe company plans to launch a small electric delivery van (class 1-2), called the UD-1, in the third quarter of 2021, and then introduce an Urban Utility vehicle (Class 2-3) in 2022. These are expected to compete with Workhorse, Rivian, Canoo, as well as the Ford eTransit and the GMC BV1, none of which is expected to be a Class 1 vehicle.\nThe company says it has 30,000 preorders for its van, representing more than $1 billion in sales. Electric Last Miles vehicles will be based on Sokon's commercial van made in China through a joint venture with Dongfeng Automobile Co Ltd. in order to accelerate development time.\nElectric Last Mile (ELM) is expected to manufacture the vans in a former General Motors Co. Hummer plant in Mishawaka, Ind., that the company is acquiring from China's Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co. Ltd. The plant has the capacity to produce 100,000 vehicles annually with plans to build approximately 4,000 UD-1 vans by the end of 2021. The UD-1 has a starting price of $32,500 and a range of 150 miles. The battery for the vehicle is expected to be supplied by the Chinese battery company CATL.\nELM believes that it has a competitive advantage because its first vehicle, the ELM Urban Delivery, is scheduled to be available in 2021. It is based on a proven, existing platform developed and sold by Sokon Group in the Asian market, where there are 30,000 of these electric delivery vehicles driving 1.5 million miles every day. At the close of the business combination, ELM will be an independent, U.S. company producing electric vehicles in the U.S. with Sokon Group providing access to its know-how, parts supply, and field and service data.\nELM expects that the Urban Delivery vehicle will be the first electric delivery vehicle coming to market in the class 1 category (GVW of 6,000 lbs or less) in the U.S. It will also have 35% more carrying volume compared to similar ICE delivery vehicles, a critical part of the value proposition. It also anticipates that its price and greater carrying volume will allow it to take market share from the class 2 category of vehicles as well.\nIts crossover product portfolio strategy targets commercial delivery vehicles spanning from class 1 to class 3, which represents over 80% of the last mile market.\nELM anticipates $122 million in revenue in 2021, rapidly increasing to $3 billion in 2025. The price of FIII stock increased immediately following its announcement with Electric Last Mile, rising more than 40% to $14.50, but now it has dropped closer to the original deal price to $10.25 for a market cap of approximately $1.5 billion.\nGreenPower Motor Company (GP)\nGreenPower Motor Company Inc. is a Canadian battery-electric bus manufacturer with multiple models of high- and low-floor vehicles, including transit buses, school buses, and shuttles. GreenPower offers commercial vehicles for delivery, public transit, schools, vanpooling, micro-transit, shuttles, and is developing a capability of autonomous operation. It went public on August 28, 2020.\nIn 2014 GreenPower launched its first purpose-built, battery-electric bus, the EV350, 40-foot transit bus. GreenPower received its first order in 2017 for ten EV350s from the City of Porterville, California.\nGreenPower's electric buses are purpose-built and designed to be all-electric, allowing it to put the battery and propulsion system in optimized locations that provide weight and structural advantages. Its primary EV is the EV Star with more than 120 vehicles delivered. It comes in several variations:\n\nEV Star - Up to 19 passengers\nEV Star Plus - Up to 24 passengers\nEV Star ADA - Passenger and curbside lift for ADA\nEV Star Cargo - 5,000 pounds of load\nEV Star Cargo Plus - 570 cubic feet of cargo space.\n\nIts EV school bus seats up to 90 students and has a range of up to 150 miles.\nGreenPower had revenue of $13.5 million in 2020 It has about $21 million in cash. It's an interesting alternative since it is already shipping EVs, has revenue, and also has a lower market cap of less than $1 billion. Since it did a traditional IPO, it hasn't published longer-term financial forecasts.\nArrival (CIIC)\nArrival was founded in 2015 in London to make a variety of commercial electric vehicles. It has approximately 1,200 employees across 11 cities in 8 countries. In November 2020, Arrival and the SPAC CIIG entered into a business combination agreement with an implied valuation of $5.39 billion.\nArrival plans on releasing four commercial EVs over the next few years.\n\nQ4/2021: An electric bus for 8-125 passengers and a range of 240-400km\nQ3/2022: An electric delivery van with a payload of 975-2,000kg and a range of 150-340km\n2022: A larger electric van with a payload of 4,000 kg and a range of 190-400km\n2023: a small vehicle platform with a range of 100-300km.\n\nThis mix provides a nice diversified portfolio of EVs. Arrival claims to have received orders from UPS for 10,000 vans. It plans a unique flexible manufacturing approach using micro-factories with each projected to manufacture 10,000 vans per year. All of its vehicles use a modular skateboard electric platform.\nArrival ambitiously projects $14.1 billion in revenue in 2024. Half of that revenue is expected from delivery vans, 22% from buses, and the rest from the large van and its small vehicle platform. With CIIC's stock price at $24.80 per share, Arrival's current market cap is relatively high at approximately $15.0 billion. Justifying its market cap depends on its ability to release, sell, and produce its four commercial EVs.\nProterra (ACTC)\nProterra is a commercial electric vehicle company with over a decade of production experience. The Company has designed an end-to-end, flexible technology platform that claims to deliver higher performance and a low total cost of ownership to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end customers.\nProterra, Inc., was originally founded in Golden, Colorado, by Dale Hill in 2004. Later the company wanted to take the lead in creating zero-emission, U.S.-based transit buses. In 2010 it moved its manufacturing plant from Golden, Colorado to Greenville, South Carolina. In 2015, Proterra was awarded a $3 million grant from the California Energy Commission to fund the design, development, and construction of the company's battery-electric transit bus manufacturing line in the City of Industry, California. It moved its headquarters from Greenville, South Carolina, to Burlingame, California, in October 2015. Proterra raised more than $600 million in funding.\nIt is going public through the SPAC ArcLight (ACTC) with a pro forma valuation of $1.6 billion. Upon completion of the transaction, Proterra expects to have up to $825 million in cash to fund growth initiatives, including R&D and the expansion of its next-generation battery program.\nProterra has three complementary businesses:\n\nProterra Powered: Delivering battery systems and electrification solutions to commercial vehicle manufacturers\nProterra Transit:Providing an electric transit bus OEMs\nProterra Energy:Offering turnkey charging and energy management solutions.\n\nThe company's battery systems have been proven in more than 16 million service miles driven by its fleet of transit vehicles and validated through partnerships with commercial vehicle OEMs. Proterra has produced and delivered more than 300 megawatt-hours of battery systems, more than 550 heavy-duty electric transit buses, and installed 54 megawatts of charging systems.\nProterra expected $193 million of revenue in 2020, with an estimated $750 million in existing orders and backlog. It projects $2.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with about 1/3 coming from its Transit business, and 2/3 From Powered & Energy. At ACTC's current stock price of $17.85, Proterra has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nRivian\nRivian (see earlier description in consumer retail) will also compete in the commercial delivery market. It has been working with Amazon (a major investor) to build large electric delivery vans for Prime. Developed specifically for Amazon, a small fleet of Prime vans is on the road now, testing deliveries to customers and gathering feedback. In late fall, it could grow to a large fleet as Rivian ramps up the volume.\nThe EV range of 150 miles is tailored to Amazon's use cycle to optimize the size, weight, and cost of the commercial vehicle. Rivian has three sizes of batteries, but Amazon is starting with just one of them.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nSee the previous summary under consumer retail EV.\nMedium and Long-Haul Trucking EV Companies\nCompanies developing medium- and long-haul EV trucks face a more difficult challenge with battery range. These trucks haul much more weight than commercial delivery vehicles and because they are designed for long distances, they can't stop every 200-300 miles for recharging.\nFor this reason, many of these companies are using unique hybrid technologies for their trucks. The EV trucks in this category are primarily heavy-duty but also include some medium-duty trucks and specialty vehicles. A couple of the companies focus on retrofitting trucks to be electric.\nMedium-Duty Trucks\nThe medium-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 4, 5, and 6:\n\nClass 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.\nClass 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.\nClass 6: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 19,501-26,000 pounds or 8,846-11,793 kilograms.1\n\nHeavy-Duty Trucks\nThe heavy-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 7 and 8:\n\nClass 7: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 26,001 to 33,000 pounds or 11,794-14,969 kilograms.\nClass 8: This class of trucks has a GVWR of greater than 33,001 pounds or 14,969 kilograms and includes all tractor-trailers.\n\nThe Tesla Semi is a battery vehicle planned for a range of 300 or 500 miles and a speed of 60 MPH with 80,000 lbs of cargo. Tesla plans to start shipping the Semi later this year when it expects to have sufficient cell volume to meet its needs with the production of its 4680 battery pack.\nNikola(NASDAQ:NKLA)\nNikola has been a very controversial company. Founded in 2015, it originally had two different strategies. Its primary strategy is to lease fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) Class-8 heavy trucks and provide the refueling infrastructure to corporate customers. Its second strategy was to develop the Badger EV truck using GM technology.\nNikola originally merged with a SPAC to go public, at an enterprise value of approximately $3.3 billion. On June 6th, 2020, its market cap jumped to more than $30 billion, then later it dropped because of problems with its originally planned deal with GM.\nNikola originally expected a deal with General Motors that included the production of the Nikola Badger EV pickup truck. The proposed arrangement was that GM would take a $2 billion equity stake in Nikola and in return would engineer and produce the Badger. In November 2020, GM and Nikola scrapped the original arrangement. Now it appears that GM will supply Nikola with only its Hydrotec hydrogen fuel-cell technology to integrate into the EV manufacturer's commercial class 7 and class 8 zero-emission semi-trucks. So, the Badger is probably dead.\nNikola now sees semi-trucks as the company's \"core business\" and fuel cells as an increasingly important segment of the semi-truck market thanks to their efficiency in weight and consumption. It expects to begin testing by the end of 2021.\nIt has received pre-orders from Anheuser-Busch and a few other companies, but it doesn't expect deliveries until 2023. Hydrogen fueling stations are key to its strategy, both providing a source of revenue and necessary fueling infrastructure for the trucks to operate, but they also cost a lot. In its March 2020 investor deck, Nikola said a single station capable of fueling 210 trucks a day would cost $16.6 million. Its initial planned network of 700 stations would cost roughly $11.6 billion.\nNikola was also accused of misrepresentation, and its executive chairman and founder stepped down.\nAt the time of the SPAC merger, it projected an optimistic forecast of more than $3 billion in revenue by 2024, with a net income of $145 million. Most of that revenue was expected to come from its Badger truck, which is no longer in the plans. Yet its market cap is still almost $6 billion.\nHyliion (HYLN)\nHyliion, founded in 2015 in Austin, went public in October 2020 through the SPAC Tortoise Acquisition Corp. (SHLL). In March 2019, automotive parts manufacturer Dana Inc. made an equity investment into Hyliion, and together they are manufacturing and marketing Class 8 EVs to Dana's customers, including Volvo, Navistar, and Peterbilt.\nHyliion's strategy is unique, and a very different strategy from Nikola. Essentially it generates electricity onboard the truck using compressed natural gas (CNG). This should be a benefit for longer-range trucking. Hyliion's Hypertruck concept involves an all-electric drivetrain utilizing Dana's electric motor, inverter, and axle technologies. The truck's batteries are fueled by onboard tanks of CNG. With some 700 CNG stations already operating nationwide, it believes that there no need to build out expensive superchargers or hydrogen infrastructure.\nKuwait-based logistics company, Agility, has already placed an order for 1,000 Hypertrucks with initial deliveries targeted in 2022. Combined with a fully electric drivetrain and a natural gas-powered onboard generator to recharge the battery, the Hypertruck ERX will provide more than 1,000 miles of range.\nHyliion will eventually compete with Nikola (FCEV) and the Tesla battery-based Semi, but it plans to have a longer range and lower operating costs. Its HyperTruck ERX is expected to be available in 2021. It also has a hybrid-electric truck.\nThe combination with SHLL had an estimated market cap of about $1.5 billion, with approximately $530 million going to the company, including a $325 million fully committed PIPE. At approximately $13.50 per share, its current market cap is approximately $2.2 billion, significantly down from its peak. Hyliion projects $2 billion in revenue in 2024, which it claims is only about 2% of the addressable market.\nXL Fleet (XL)\nXL Fleet is a 10-year old company that went public through the SPAC Pivotal. XL is different because it provides fleet electrification modifications for ICE trucks across a wide range of vehicle classes (class 2-5) and types. It has over 200 of the largest commercial and municipal fleets as customers, with more than 3,200 XL systems deployed and over 130 million miles driven by customers to date. XL's customer base includes FedEx, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Verizon, the City of Boston, Seattle Fire Department, Yale University, and Harvard University.\nXL's business model is essentially retrofitting existing trucks to be hybrids and then later expanding into fully electric truck conversions. It claims to be creating a fully integrated platform for this. It remains to be seen if the retrofitting business will continue to grow or will it diminish when more trucks are designed and manufactured with EV capabilities.\nUnlike some other EV companies that have no revenue yet because they are still developing products, XL is more of a small company doing low-volume retrofits. It had $7.2 million in revenue in 2019, $21 million in 2020, and estimates $76 million in 2021, but it forecasts $1.3 billion in revenue in 2024 in its investor presentation. It plans to do this by expanding its product line from hybrid to plug-in hybrid to fully electric across a broader range of trucks. It claims to have a $220 million sales pipeline for the next 12 months.\nShort-seller, Muddy Waters, claimed after talking to former XL Fleet employees, that it believed the company significantly exaggerated its order backlog, that the return on investment for the company's products was likely negative, and that it would not be able to compete with big car makers on electrification. The company thoroughly refuted these claims.\nThe original enterprise valuation was approximately $1.4 billion at a $10 share price for the merger. Its price jumped by about 35% but has since gone back down to $12.40 for a market cap of about $1.8 billion. Although XL Fleet has revenue and other EV companies don't, this may not be an advantage. It appears to be a small company for many years that has gone public at a high valuation with grand plans. The risks are in its ability to make a jump from $76 million in 2021 to $1.3 billion in 2024, as well as the question about retrofitting being replaced by new EV trucks by then.\nXos (NGAC)\nXos Trucks specializes in the field of manufacturing fully electric commercial vehicles. It features a software platform that is designed to accommodate an extensive variety of medium-duty bodies, wheelbase, and range requirements up to 200 miles. It was founded in 2016 and headquartered in North Hollywood, California. It received $20 million of investment in 2020 and now is going public through a merger with the SPAC ExtGen Acquisition Corporation (NGAC) at an estimated proforma value of $1.965 billion.\nIts focus is on medium- and heavy-duty last mile and return-to-base segments (class 5/6, class 6/7, and class 7/8) commercial fleets and specialty vehicles. Some vehicles are currently in production and in regular on-road operations with key fleet customers, and it claimed 6,000 unit orders in backlog.\nIts MD-platform is for classes 5-6 for pickup and delivery. Its HD X-Platform is an adaptable chassis for highway, vocational, and severe work conditions. Its market is for customers with highly predictable routes that allow for batteries designed for a more limited range. A significantly larger frame and smaller battery pack allow for reduced density.\nXos has a bundled all-in-one offering that allows fleets to access all the tools and services they need to go electric with a single point of contact at a fixed monthly expense.\nXos had $3 million in revenue in 2020 and estimates $14 million in 2021. However, it forecasts $5.2 billion in revenue in 2025. At the current stock price of $10.30, its market cap is approximately $2 billion, about the same as its original SPAC transaction.\nLion Electric (NGA)\nLion Electric is a Canadian company founded by Marc Bédard in 2008. Its focus is to be a leader in designing, developing, and manufacturing purpose-built urban electric vehicles; vehicles that are specifically designed as delivery trucks, refuse trucks, bucket trucks, moving trucks, school buses, and shuttle buses. It has over 300 all-electric vehicles on the road today.\nIn November 2020, it announced that it was going public through the SPAC NGA. The transaction had an estimated pro forma enterprise value of $1.5 billion.\nIt plans on seven new truck models and one new school bus, for a total of 15 all-electric vehicles, representing a full line-up from class 5 to class 8 electric trucks and a full line-up of electric school buses. Its vehicles are produced at its existing manufacturing plant, which has the capacity for the production of up to 2,500 vehicles per year. It intends to open a new plant in the U.S. capable of delivering over 20,000 Lion trucks and buses per year by 2022.\nIts all-electric class 6 and class 8 commercial urban trucks combine power, comfort, and modern technology. Custom-built chassis and cabin designed specifically for an all-electric heavy-duty vehicle. The LionC is an all-electric Type C school bus manufactured in North America. The body and chassis were specifically designed to deliver optimal performance. The LionM is an all-electric midi/minibus that meets paratransit and public transportation requirements. Created and designed specifically for the paratransit market, the is spacious and offers unique features that provide enhanced security and accessibility to the end-users.\nLion Electric had $29 million in revenue in 2020 and expects $204 million in 2021. It forecasts revenue to jump to $3.6 billion a few years later in 2024. Its current market cap is approximately $3.6 billion based on its current stock price of $18.33.\nLightning eMotors (GIK)\nLightning eMotors, formerly Lightning Systems, was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Loveland, Colorado. It provides fleet electrification for familiar commercial vehicle platforms by retrofitting them with its electric powertrains. Lightning eMotors produces electric fleet medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including delivery trucks, shuttle buses, passenger vans, ambulances, bucket trucks, chassis-cab models, and city transit buses. It focuses on urban commercial zero-emission vehicles with a full range of class 3 through class 7 battery-electric and fuel-cell electric vehicles.\nLighting eMotors helps commercial fleets achieve their sustainability goals by offering zero-emission battery-electric vans, trucks, and buses based on familiar, proven vehicles from manufacturers such as Ford and GM. It works with customers, to help them identify their unique commercial electric vehicle, charging, and grant support needs.\nThe Lightning products include integrated all-electric powertrains for the Ford Transit 350HD passenger and cargo vans, Ford E-450 shuttle bus and cutaway models, Ford F-59 step/food van, Ford F-550 cargo trucks and buses, Chevrolet 6500XD Low Cab Forward model, and 30-foot, 35-foot, and 40-foot transit buses.\nLightning has 120 vehicles on the road, and 1,500 vehicles already on order from customers. In addition to making vehicles and powertrains, Lightning also provides a full suite of charging solutions for customers.\nThe deal with GIK has an enterprise value of $650 million, although there is also an Earnout of 20.0% of total pro forma shares outstanding to Lightning eMotors shareholders if the stock crosses certain price thresholds.\nAt the current price, of $11.73, GIK has a market cap of approximately $1 billion, a little more than the original transaction valuation. Similar to XL Fleet, Lightning has the risk that retrofitting may only be an interim business opportunity until more EV trucks are produced.\nPublic Chinese EV Companies\nChina will be the biggest EV market opportunity, and EV start-ups may do better there because there isn't as much entrenched competition from domestic auto companies. China is already the largest EV market in the world, with almost a million EVs sold in 2019. Its EV market represents almost half of the global EV sales volume and is much larger than the U.S. market.\nThe Chinese government has ambitions to become a global leader in new energy vehicles. Soon after the coronavirus outbreak subsided within the country, Chinese authorities announced new policies to support the auto and electric vehicle industries.\nThese Chinese companies are traded through American depository shares (ADS) that contain certain risks. There are financial reporting and transparency risks with these companies, and on top of that, the newer companies are being classified as \"emerging growth\" companies that are already exempt from certain transparency requirements set out in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Like the previous EV stock, these stocks have also been very volatile.\nIn addition to legacy auto manufacturers like BYD, there are also three Chinese EV companies that are publicly traded through American depositary shares.\nBYD Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:BYDDY)\nBYD, which means build your dreams, is the automotive subsidiary of the Chinese multinational BYD Co Ltd. It was founded in January 2003, following BYD Company's acquisition of Tsinchuan Automobile Company. The company produces automobiles, buses, electric bicycles, forklifts, rechargeable batteries, and trucks. The current model range of automobiles includes electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and petrol-engined vehicles. Thirteen years ago, on the advice of his famously skeptical lieutenant, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett made a $232 million investment in BYD, a relatively unknown Chinese car company.\nBy parlaying BYD's rechargeable battery technology into a fast-growing carmaking operation, it gained a foothold in the fledgling electric vehicle market, building longer-lasting batteries and cheaper vehicles than American and Japanese manufacturers were managing to do at the time. In BYD, Buffett and Munger believed they had found a company with a shot at one day becoming the largest player in a global automobile market that was inevitably going electric.\nBYD's start to 2021 was strong with 19,871 plug-in electric cars sold in January in China, including hybrid plug-ins. That was a big increase over 2020 but not as much as 2019.\nLI Auto (LI)\nLixiang, formerly known as Chehejia (\"Car and Home\"), was founded in 2015 and went public in the U.S. on July 30th, 2020. It is a Beijing-based electric-vehicle startup with vertically integrated manufacturing. It designs, researches, manufactures, sells, and offers services featuring a few models of electric vehicles.\nThe company's SUVs are hybrids of a sort. They use electric motors (one on the front axle and one on the rear), but those motors are powered by a combination of a 40.5kWh battery packanda 1.2-liter turbocharged engine paired to a 45-liter fuel tank and a 100kW electric generator, which generates power for the battery pack in real-time. The idea is that the car can be driven for about 100 miles on battery power alone, but it has a total range of nearly 500 miles when leveraging the combustion engine generator.\nThe Company's primary product is an SUV under its brand Li ONE. It also sells peripheral products and provides related services, such as charging stalls, vehicle internet connection services, and extended lifetime warranties. Li Auto is looking to sell a variety of SUVs built on its hybrid technology that range from around $21,000 to about $70,000. The company started shipping its first model in late 2019. It's a midsize SUV is well-appointed and has lots of touchscreens and technology. A full-size premium version is planned for release in 2022.\nDeliveries of Li ONEs were 14,464 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a 67.0% quarter-over-quarter increase and setting a new quarterly record. Deliveries for the full year 2020 reached 32,624 vehicles. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $635 million.\nLI auto went public on July 30th, 2020, raising $1.1 billion at an initial price of $15.50 per share but quickly reached almost $24. It is currently valued at approximately $37 billion at a price of approximately $25.72 per share.\nXPeng (XPEV)\nXiaopeng (XPeng) Motors is a Chinese electric vehicle and technology company that designs and manufactures smart cars. It was founded in 2015 and went public on August 27, 2020, using American depository shares, raising about $1 billion. To date, it has raised about $2.6 billion.\nXPeng aims its EVs at technology-savvy middle-class Chinese consumers, with prices ranging from $22,000 to $45,000 after government subsidies. In some ways, it is a Tesla knock-off at a much lower price. XPeng started production of the G3 in November 2018, and as of July 31, 2020, delivered 18,741. It started production of the P7 and began delivery in May 2020, and as of July 31, 2020, it had delivered 1,966 EVs. The P7 has a range of more than 400 miles. It plans to launch a third Smart EV, a sedan, in 2021. The G3 was among the top-three best-selling electric SUVs in China in 2019.\nXPeng is interesting because it has a platform strategy and is moving aggressively into autonomous driving. It uses a platform strategy to expand product offerings by launching one Smart EV model each year to broaden the addressable market. It builds new models on two highly flexible Smart EV platforms, called David and Edward, respectively. The David platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,600 millimeters to 2,800 millimeters, and the Edward platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,800 millimeters to 3,100 millimeters. It also adopted a platform approach for software systems.\nXPeng claims to be developing an autonomous driving capability for its EVs. The P7 is the first production vehicle to feature the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Xavier system-on-a-chip (SoC) autonomous driving platform. The company's Smart Electric Platform Architecture (SEPA) runs on 2 chips - NVIDIA for the XPILOT and Qualcomm's Snapdragon™ 820A for intelligent services and infotainment, including cameras inside and outside, radars, HD-map, and ultrasonic sensors. Like Tesla, it claims it can create sufficiently-autonomous driving without lidar.\nTo enhance brand recognition and allow more people to experience its Smart EVs, it deployed a small number of Smart EVs in a ride-hailing service in Guangzhou on a trial basis, but it has no current plan to scale up a ride-hailing service.\nXpeng sees first-quarter 2021 deliveries rising 450% year-over-year to 12,500 vehicles. Revenues are expected to increase 533% from a year ago. The company didn't provide bottom-line estimates for the quarter, but will likely post another net loss as it ramps up manufacturing, invests in R&D, and builds out a new manufacturing plant set to open in 2022.\nXpeng reported selling 12,964 vehicles in Q4 2020, up 303% from a year ago. It delivered a total of 27,041 vehicles in 2020, up 112%. It makes the P7 sedan, a rival to the made-in-China Tesla Model 3, and the small G3 SUV.\nThe stock opened on August 27, 2020 at a price of $15 and a valuation of $11 billion, but its stock jumped more than 40% shortly after. Its current valuation is about $35 billion at a stock price of approximately $36.13 per share. It had about $300 million in revenue in 2019 with a loss of about $500 million.\nNio (NIO)\nUnlike previous companies, Nio has been a public company for some time. It originally went public in the U.S. back in September of 2018, selling IPO shares at $6.26 and raising $1 billion.\nNio's IPO was far from smooth. After going public at $6.26 per share, it traded down to nearly $1. Then in the middle of the coronavirus outbreak, Nio received a much-needed investment of $1 billion from investors, including state-backed entities.\nNio designs, jointly manufactures, and sells smart and connected premium electric vehicles, attempting to develop next-generation technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving, and artificial intelligence. Joint manufacturing means that it uses a state-owned contract manufacturer to build its cars.\nNio plans to provide customers with comprehensive, convenient, and innovative charging solutions and other user-centric services. It began deliveries of the ES8, a 7-seater high-performance premium electric SUV in China in June 2018, and its variant, the six-seater ES8, in March 2019. Nio officially launched the ES6, a 5-seater high-performance premium electric SUV, in December 2018 and began deliveries in June 2019. It officially launched the EC6, a 5-seater smart premium electric Coupe SUV, in December 2019 with deliveries in 2020.\nNio sold 17,353 EVs in Q4/2020 and 43,728 for the year. It warned a shortage in chips and batteries will force a production slowdown to 7,500 a month in Q2 from 10,000 vehicles a month in February.\nNio currently trades at more than $43 per share, including a big jump recently, for a valuation of approximately $48 billion. It had revenue of $2.3 billion in 2019 for a loss of $3.8 billion.\nSummary\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this should provide exciting new investment opportunities. However, the investment terrain is complex. There are dozens of new start-ups where the public can now invest that were previously exclusively venture capital investment opportunities. Many of these are following different roads to success. There are legacy auto manufacturers that could prosper or get destroyed in this transition. There are some exciting new EV company opportunities in China. And then there is Tesla.\nThis EV roadmap is intended to help investors explore different roads to investment by explaining the basic strategies for these EV companies. These roads can have different opportunities and risks, and the roadmap helps to frame these. Above all, valuation is an overriding risk that is highlighted throughout this article.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":353521881,"gmtCreate":1616508638043,"gmtModify":1704795070606,"author":{"id":"3492988344947940","authorId":"3492988344947940","name":"爱炒股的程序员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a07dd11965a8db79972da9b73265fd4","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3492988344947940","authorIdStr":"3492988344947940"},"htmlText":"好多字啊。。。。","listText":"好多字啊。。。。","text":"好多字啊。。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353521881","repostId":1196402560,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1196402560","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616134696,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196402560?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-19 14:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"New Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196402560","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, an","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>It's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.</li>\n <li>Last October, I wrote a popular article providing a roadmap for investing in electric vehicles, but since then, so much has changed: new entrants, new strategies, fluctuating valuations, etc.</li>\n <li>So, I updated and greatly expanded the previous EV investment roadmap.</li>\n <li>This update includes a deeper look at valuations for 23 EV companies with revenue projections, when available.</li>\n <li>It also classifies these EV companies into their primary market categories and summarizes their different strategies.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb96acc615cba9c7842860658c019ab1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\">Photo by Sven Loeffler/iStock via Getty Images\nMy article&nbsp;Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap&nbsp;published five months ago, was popular, and some followers have requested an update. Many new EV companies entered the market, most of them through SPACs. Valuations fluctuated wildly, and there has been a great deal of publicity around these companies.\nThis new updated EV investment roadmap is greatly expanded. In addition to updating the strategies and progress of companies previously discussed, I expanded the number of companies covered. This article also groups EV companies into their primary markets, enabling better comparisons and evaluation of market opportunities. In addition, it includes a comparative valuation chart showing every company's market cap with a comparison to projected revenue, where possible. This takes advantage (good or bad) of looking at the long-term revenue forecasts provided in SPAC mergers that public companies can't make.\nIn addition to the EV manufacturers discussed here, there are also EV investment opportunities in charging station companies, battery manufacturers, and battery materials companies. These were covered in the original roadmap and may also be updated in a later article.\nApproximately 2 million EVs were sold in 2019, and although the number declined along with all auto sales in 2020, it is forecasted to increase in 2021 and reach 8-10 million by 2025. Some forecast that EV sales will be greater than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2030, or even earlier. The automobile market appears to be moving toward a historical transformation, and exceptional investment gains can be made by anticipating new emerging industries and investing in the eventual winners of those new industries. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)are obvious examples. Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to create a new emerging industry.\nThere are also significant risks. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to be released in the next three years, which will drive rapid growth in EV sales. However, the expected sales from these new models, as well as the increasing expectations from Tesla, most likely exceed the total projected market. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the companies covered here won't exist five years from now. It reminds me of the internet bubble of the late 1990s when scores of internet-based companies went public with little or no revenue. Almost all of these failed within three years -- however, a couple, including Amazon, went on to enormous success.\nEVs provide a major new investment opportunity with high risks. To succeed, you need to have a clear EV investment roadmap.\nSo, how can you invest in this new emerging market? The EV landscape is complex and investment opportunities are varied. While Tesla is the unquestioned leader in EVs, some consider it overvalued and unlikely to show exceptional returns to new investors. The current U.S. legacy automakers are committed to introducing many new EVs in the next few years, and they have some entrenched advantages with volume manufacturing capabilities, a dealer infrastructure, and loyal customers. There are exciting new EV start-ups in the U.S. that have come public this year, mostly through Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), and there are several interesting publicly traded Chinese EV manufacturers.\nThis new roadmap for EV investment classifies companies into three primary markets segments:\n<ul>\n <li>TheConsumer Retailsegment includes EVs sold to consumers individually, such as SUVs, pickup trucks, sedans, etc.</li>\n <li>TheCommercial Deliverysegment includes local delivery EV vans and trucks sold to fleets.</li>\n <li>TheMedium- and Long-Haul Truckingsegment includes heavier Class 4 - Class 8 trucks, as well as special industrial vehicles.</li>\n</ul>\nIn addition, it categorizesLegacy ManufacturersandChinese EV Companies. This enables investors to evaluate investment opportunities by considering unique opportunities within each market segment.\nThere is an enormous amount of investment optimism for EVs, and retail investors have been aggressively buying into EV stocks with seemingly no regard for valuation. Then there is the additional challenge of valuing companies with no revenue, especially those coming public through SPACs. So, valuation is an important investment consideration.\nSo let's start by looking at an overview of comparative EV valuations.\nEV Investment Valuation Overview\nThe following chart summarizes valuations for 23 EV companies, including several legacy companies. For SPACs, market cap estimates are computed using the pro forma number of shares at closing, otherwise using the valuation of the SPAC prior to closing drastically underestimates the valuation, which may be misleading to novice investors. Price/Sales ratios (market cap divided by revenue) are used to compare valuations. As a benchmark, current P/S ratios vary. For example, auto and truck companies have a ratio of 2.7X. Software companies have the highest ratios of over 10X.\nIn the chart, companies that currently have revenue show current P/S ratios. Where projections are available, projected P/S ratios are computed. A note of caution, however. Many of the EV companies came public through SPACs and published their projections (which public companies cannot do), and many of these are likely to prove unrealistic.\nAll of the longer-term revenue projections come from the company (C) forecasts with a SPAC. Some of these may turn out to be accurate, not many are most likely unrealistic. Some, like Lucid, Faraday, and Arrival forecast hitting more than $10 billion in revenue in a few years, when it took Tesla more than 10. Things are different now and they might achieve these, but they could also find that it will take longer to complete development, ramp up production, and create enough customer demand. Many companies may also find that there will be significant capital requirements to achieve this type of growth, and shareholders will be diluted.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc360dfa7de01516b7f68d5962cf3017\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"883\">\nTesla, the \"gold standard\" in EVs, has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, which many people believe is overvalued. Its market cap is approximately 20X 2020 revenue and 10X estimated 2022 revenue.\nTesla (TSLA)\nIn the U.S., and to a lesser extent in China, Tesla is the dominant EV provider. It has approximately 60% of the U.S. EV market and about 20% of the market in China. I own a Tesla and love it, but an investment in Tesla stock requires getting comfortable with its valuation. Tesla has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, although declining lately, which some consider still overvalued while others see upside potential.\nThe investment opportunity with Tesla is based on the expectation that it will continue to dominate the EV market, or at least maintain significant market share, despite much greater competition from the expected introduction of hundreds of new EV models in the next few years.\nThere is a great deal already published about Tesla, so I'll move on.\nLegacy Automakers\nSome people think that the legacy automakers will simply fade away. Historically, that was the case in some other industries, but it is not going to happen to most automakers. They are not standing still waiting to become obsolete. Most have aggressive strategies to replace ICE vehicles with EVs. GM plans to invest $27 billion and build and launch as many as 30 new EV models by 2025. Ford plans to invest $29 billion in EVs by 2025 and launch as many as 16 EVs in the next two years. Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY)has also committed billions to develop new EVs.\nThe competitive advantage that legacy automakers have in selling their new EVs is their dealer network. Will new EV customers prefer to continue going to their regular auto dealer to buy their new EV?\nAlmost all legacy automakers worldwide are developing and launching EVs including Volkswagen, Peugeot, Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi, Hyundai/Kia. Let's look a little more closely at GM and Ford as the leaders in the U.S.\nGeneral Motors (GM)\nGM has committed to introducing 20 new electric vehicles by 2023, including EVs across Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC, and Buick. It recently announced that it has already sold out the first-year production of its Hummer electric pickup. By mid-decade, it expects to sell a million EVs per year in its two largest markets: North America and China. As a reference point, Tesla reported deliveries of 367,500 vehicles globally in 2019.\nGM has a solid platform strategy for its EVs. It plans on building its EVs using five interchangeable drive units and three different motors from its Ultium Drive System platform. Ultium energy options range from 50 to 200 kWh, which could enable an estimated range of up to 400 miles. Most of its EVs will have 400-volt battery packs and up to 200 kW fast-charging capability while the truck platform will have 800-volt battery packs and 350 kW fast-charging capabilities.\nThe key building blocks of the Ultium battery system are large-scale, high-energy cells. Engineered in partnership with LG Energy Solutions, they use both advanced chemistry and a smart cell design that's optimized for a broad portfolio of EVs. GM engineers and scientists are actively researching and testing new elements in battery chemistry to lower costs and improve charge times. Ultium can contain either vertically- or horizontally-stacked cells to integrate into vehicle design: vertically for trucks, SUVs, and crossovers, or horizontally for cars and performance vehicles. As new chemistry is developed and becomes available, the battery management system could digitally update the modules.\nGM also has other EV opportunities with its BrightDrop commercial EV service and its Cruise subsidiary. BrightDrop will not just sell delivery EVs, it will provide an entire service platform for commercial delivery customers. Its set of electric delivery vehicles starts with the EV600 and includes the BrightDrop EP1, a pod-like electric pallet. SeeGeneral Motors' Aggressive EV/AV Strategies May Payoff Big.\nWith its highest stock price of $61.65, GM's current market cap is approximately $89 billion, increasing primarily because of its progress with EVs. This approximately 3X valuation in 2018, but still only 13% of Tesla.\nFord (F)\nFord is also investing heavily in EVs. It just introduced the Mustang Mach-E, a battery-powered crossover with sports car styling, and plans to introduce an all-electric version of its best-selling F-150 pickup later this year. Also, planned is an electric edition of the full-size Transit van, which has been popular in the commercial delivery market. Ford has confirmed plans to build a luxury Lincoln crossover on a battery-powered platform provided by Rivian. The automaker also plans to introduce two new midsize electric crossovers, one each for the Ford and Lincoln brands by 2023.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd8523e15bccc57790940d4218f7b94e\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"1080\">Mustang Mach-E. Source: Ford\nFord's market cap is approximately $51 billion, twice its previous market cap, and also increasing.\nConsumer Retail EV Companies\nThe consumer retail market has some unique characteristics for new EV companies. Sales are made individually, not in fleets. This diversifies the risk upon launch because only a sufficient number of customers need to be attracted to the new EV. A wave of popularity can provide terrific momentum.\nHowever, the lack of a dealer network can be an impediment. Selling EVs directly to consumers instead of through dealers is prohibited in most states. By law, auto manufacturers can't compete with franchised dealers. These are laws that go back many decades to protect dealers. This can be a major impediment for new companies without established independent dealer franchises. So, new AV companies. like Tesla, need to sell their vehicles online. Tesla has successfully done this, but it took a lot of work and time. Lack of a dealer network also creates impediments in service.\nIn addition, over the next 4-5 years, autonomous capabilities will be increasingly important to luxury vehicles. This may prove to be a challenge to start-up EV companies because they can't afford to develop this technology.\nLet's look closer at the alternative consumer retail EV investments.\nLucid Motors (CCIV)\nLucid was founded in 2007 under the name Atieva and originally focused on building electric vehicle batteries and powertrains for other vehicle manufacturers. The company rebranded itself as Lucid Motors in October 2016 and shifted its strategy to develop an all-electric, high-performance, luxury vehicle. Shortly after that, it encountered financial difficulties and struggled to get short-term funding. In 2018 it raised more than $1 billion in investment, primarily from Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund, and gave up a majority of the company.\nLucid Motors reached an agreement to become a publicly-traded company through a merger with the SPAC Churchill Capital IV Corp., in one of the largest deals SPAC EV deals. The combined company, in which Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund will continue to be the largest shareholder, had a transaction equity value of $11.75 billion (for $10/share). At the same time, it closed a PIPE investment priced at $15 a share, giving it an implied pro forma equity value of $24 billion. Rumors about this deal circulated before the transaction was formally announced, making it one of the most anticipated SPAC deals. The hype and speculation drove up the stock price of Churchill Capital IV Corp. from its opening price of $10 a share to almost $60. I believe that some of this may have been driven by novice SPAC investors who didn't realize that the valuation of CCIV didn't include the eventual valuation of Lucid. The share price dropped more than 30% after the details of the deal were announced. It's also likely that Lucid renegotiated the terms of the merger based on the price jump.\nThe company's first product is the Lucid Air, a well-equipped luxury electric vehicle that features 406 miles of projected range and 480 horsepower with a starting price of $77,400, or $69,900 after the U.S. Federal Tax Credit of $7,500. This new Lucid Air model is positioned as a high-performance, ultra-efficient luxury EV sedan in a line of future vehicles that are expected to include Lucid Air Touring, Grand Touring, and Dream Edition versions.\nThe company plans to begin production and deliveries of the Lucid Air in North America in the second half of 2021. Previously the company aimed to begin deliveries earlier in 2021. It intends to sell the car in Europe in 2022, followed by China in 2023. Lucid vehicles will be produced at its new factory in Casa Grande, Arizona. The company plans to expand the factory in phases in the coming years to have the capacity to produce 365,000 units per year at scale. The initial phase of the $700 million factory construction was completed late last year and will have the capacity to produce 30,000 vehicles a year.\nLucid also apparently has a commitment to build an assembly plant in Saudi Arabia, which was rumored to be a condition of the $1 billion investment from the Saudi public fund. The Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund also provided $600 million in bridge financing and invested in the SPAC deal as well. So, while this assembly plant may be expensive and may not be critical, it will most likely need to happen.\nLucid has ambitious plans to achieve $14 billion in revenue in 2025, and its current stock price at $29.17, which gives it a market cap of more than $46 billion, may already reflect those ambitions. Its market cap is roughly the same as Ford.\nFisker (FSR)\nFisker, which had its origins with Fisker Automotive, is an interesting story that ended in bankruptcy. Henrik Fisker originally co-founded Fisker Automotive in 2007. He was responsible for designing many premium cars such as the Aston Martin. Subsequently, Fisker Automotive had to deal with a Tesla lawsuit against Fisker Automotive alleging it stole Tesla's technology, a controversial $528.7 million conditional loan from the Department of Energy, a recall of its battery produced by A123, and the loss of several hundred vehicles in hurricane Sandy. Henrik Fisker resigned in March 2013 because of disagreements over business strategy and in November 2013, Fisker filed its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case.\nHowever, Henrik Fisker retained the Fisker brand and trademarks, and in 2016 he started another electric vehicle company named Fisker Inc. with the Fisker brand and trademarks. In 2019, Fisker shifted from developing a sports car with a solid-state battery to the Ocean SUV featuring a lithium-ion battery, which it later abandoned for a solid-state battery.\nFisker is positioning itself in a unique segment for those who want the most environmentally friendly EV. While this may be an early growth segment for EVs, it's difficult to estimate its eventual competitive advantage and the size of this environmentally-friendly market segment.\nThe Ocean is a crossover made of recycled metal and plastic with an expected base price of $37,499, and an expected lease of less than $400 a month. Fisker's plan is essentially a lease-only business model that lets customers keep a vehicle for years or return it at any time. It aims to source motors, batteries, and other components from technical partnerships with automakers and will outsource production from existing auto plants. Fisker is currently taking reservations at $250 for the Ocean. It also announced an agreement with Foxconn to jointly develop a vehicle pioneering a new market segment to be sold globally under the Fisker brand commencing in Q4 2023. at the end of 2022. Production will start at Magna Steyr's manufacturing facilities in Europe. At the end of February 2021, it had 12,467 cancellable reservations.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/924a617c90fc3276d7bdab8c64ebfdcf\" tg-width=\"744\" tg-height=\"389\">Fisker Ocean. Source: Fisker\nFisker went public using a SPAC (Spartan Energy). The original combination with SPAQ in October 2020 was valued at $2.9 billion with a cash investment of approximately $1 billion. The stock currently trades at approximately $21 per share, after reaching a high of $28.50, from the original price of $10, which is a market cap of $4.6 billion. Fisker projects $3.3 billion in revenue in 2023. It had almost $1 billion in cash at the end of 2020 and expected to use almost half of this in 2021: $250 million on operating expenses and $250 million in capital investments. If the Ocean is delayed into 2023, Fisker risks missing its revenue objective and will potentially need additional cash to complete development and launch.\nFaraday Future (PSAC)\nFaraday Future was originally established in May 2014 by Chinese businessman Jia Yueting. It is headquartered in Los Angeles and has offices in Silicon Valley, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu. Faraday Future also had a turbulent history. In 2016, it struggled financially, and in 2017 some key executives departed over a dispute about financial issues. They later founded Canoo.\nIn December 2018 the company announced layoffs due to a cash crunch and financial troubles. The company's founder Jia Yueting filed for personal bankruptcy in the United States' federal court in Delaware on October 14, 2019. Following Jia's personal bankruptcy, he decided to step down from his role as CEO of Faraday Future in order to assume a new position as the Chief Product and User Officer. He was replaced as CEO by Carsten Breitfeld, the former CEO at rival electric vehicle startup Byton.\nSomehow, Faraday was able to raise $2.3 billion in private funding over 5 rounds from a variety of investors. In early 2018, it received $1.5 billion in funding from an undisclosed investor from Hong Kong.\nFaraday's flagship product offering will be the FF 91, featuring 1,050 HP, 0-60 mph in less than 2.4 seconds, zero gravity seats with the largest 60-degree reclining angles, and a user experience designed to create a mobile, connected, and luxurious living space. The FF 91 is targeted to launch in 2022.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e38bfb3211c72bb73bc26f2ebe296fe\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"854\">FF 91. Source: Faraday Future\nIts strategic partners include one of China's top three OEMs and a critical Chinese city, which the company believes will help establish its presence in the Chinese vehicle market.\nFaraday Future plans several cars based on its Variable Platform Architecture. FF 91 is the first production vehicle and flagship model. Pricing will range between $120,000 and upwards of $200,000, which places it against formidable opponents. Faraday Future is already looking forward to expanding its range with a pair of smaller models named FF 81 and FF 71. The FF 81 is planned to be priced at $75,000 to 95,000 with a 2023 release. The FF 71 is planned to be priced at $45,000 to $65,000 with a planned release of 2024.\nThe Primary Manufacturing Facility for FF 91 is in Hanford, CA with contract manufacturing for future models in Gunsan, South Korea.\nFaraday Future is planning high-Level automation with a Level-3 capable system using a redundant safety architecture based on NVIDIA Xavier System-on-a-chip. It will be capable of highway auto-drive and hardware ready for advanced auto-drive. It is targeting full autonomous valet parking &amp; summon in any parking lot or structure. Eventually, it expects full auto-drive, including full 360˚ sensor coverage for advanced auto-drive &amp; auto-park features.\nIn January 2021, Faraday Future announced that the company would go public through a reverse merger with the special purpose acquisition company Property Solutions Acquisition Corp. (PSAC). The combined company will be valued at $3.4 billion. Faraday Future is expected to set up contract manufacturing operations in China through their partnership with Geely. Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn is also expected to serve as an additional strategic partner.\nFaraday Future projects $10.5 billion in revenue in 2024 and $21.5 billion in 2025. Revenue is expected to start in 2022 with the delivery of 2,400 vehicles for $504 million. Most likely these projections could prove to be optimistic. At a current stock price of approximately $12.80, it has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nLordstown Motors (RIDE)\nLordstown Motors based in Lordstown, Ohio, was originally founded in 2018 by Steve Burns, the former CEO of Workhorse Group. The company licensed technology from Workhorse in return for royalties and a 10% ownership. Lordstown is named after the famous GM Lordstown manufacturing plant, which it acquired in November 2019 in an unusual transaction. GM announced that it was closing the plant and was under a great deal of pressure for that decision. So, GM \"sold\" the plant to a company that was renamed Lordstown for an estimated $20 million that it loaned to the acquiring company. Subsequently, the sale was redefined to be part of a $75 million investment by GM, of which $50 million was an in-kind exchange for the plant.\nLordstown went public through the SPAC DiamondPeak Holdings Corp. in 2020. It currently has more than 400 employees.\nIts first product is the Lordstown Endurance, a full-sized EV pickup truck. Lordstown is positioning Endurance for the pickup fleet market segment. The expected price is $52,000+, and it claimed to have more than 100,000 pre-orders by January 2021. However, a recent research article published by a short seller claimed \"Our research has revealed that Lordstown's order book consists of fake or entirely non-binding orders, from customers that generally do not even have fleets of vehicles.\" Lordstown is disputing that article.\nIt believes the fleet pickup market segment is underserved with no current EV-focused competition. It estimates that the full-sized pick-up truck fleet market is 1.2 million vehicles per year in the U.S., but it's more fragmented than other truck fleets. Pickup \"fleets\" tend to be much smaller and local, so there may not be much of a market distinction for a small company buying several EV pickups from a traditional auto dealer. About half of the total U.S. pickup market is classified as fleet sales, meaning more than one.\nEven though Lordstown is targeting the commercial fleet market, it is a similar product to the Ford EV F-150. So I classify it in the consumer EV category. It is a class 2 vehicle. Lordstown also may enter the SUV market in the longer-term.\nThe Endurance will compete against future models from Rivian and Tesla, as well as Ford and GM in ICE pick-ups and their upcoming EV pick-ups. Ford plans on selling its EV F-150 in mid-2022. Initial production of the Endurance is expected in the second half of 2021, so it may have a short market advantage. Nevertheless, it forecasts selling 65,000 vehicles in 2023 and 107,000 in 2024. These estimates could be a large percentage of the EV pick-up market in those years.\nAt the SPAC merger, the implied valuation for Lordstown was $1.6 billion, including a $500 million PIPE and the $75 million by GM. Lordstown's financial projections appear to be aggressive. It projects to start shipping the Endurance in late 2021 with projected revenue in 2022 of $1.7 billion, increasing to $5.8 billion in 2024. Its stock price at approximately $13.60 values the company at a market cap of approximately $2.2 billion. The value of the company depends on the likelihood of achieving its projections.\nA fleet sales strategy makes sense for Lordstown since it would be too expensive to build a retail sales and service capability. However, it's not clear that this will become a distinct competitive advantage. Some small fleets may still prefer to buy their EV pickups from established local dealers with service capabilities.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nCanoo started as Evelozcity in 2017 and rebranded as Canoo in the spring of 2019. Canoo is a Los Angeles-based company that develops electric vehicles. It has over 350 employees. Canoo has designed a modular electric platform purpose-built to deliver maximum vehicle interior space, which is adaptable to support a wide range of vehicle applications for consumers and businesses. Canoo expects to launch its first consumer model in 2022, simply named the Canoo that will be available by subscription, followed shortly after by a multi-purpose delivery vehicle and a sports vehicle, each built off of the same underlying platform. Canoo went public using a SPAC (Hennessy Capital Acquisition) and now trades as GOEV.\nCanoo's all-electric skateboard-like platform is designed to support both consumer retail and commercial vehicle configurations. The EV leverages Canoo's flat skateboard architecture for a high level of usable interior space. Its commercial vehicle program, expected in 2023, addresses a projected $50B+ last-mile delivery market with an EV platform that maximizes cargo volume.\nHyundai Motor Group said it would jointly develop an electric vehicle platform with the company.\nCanoo's platform strategy is interesting. It could be used as an EV platform for custom fleets of delivery vehicles. It has no AV development, but it claims to be \"AV Ready\" which could be useful for AV companies wanting to build custom AV delivery fleets.\nIts all-electric multi-purpose delivery vehicle is expected to be priced starting at approximately $33,000. It is based on Canoo's proprietary electric platform and will be offered in two initial size variants, with others to follow. Limited availability will begin in 2022, with scaled production and launch planned for 2023. Customers can pre-order the multi-purpose delivery vehicle for a refundable deposit of $100 per vehicle\nIt plans to offer two multi-purpose delivery vehicles: the MPDV1 and the larger MPDV2. The first has a 200-foot cargo volume and a range of 130-200 miles. It offers more capacity than today's ICE delivery vehicles at an affordable price with urban mobility enabled by a space-efficient footprint. The vehicle is also designed to fit within many height-restricted areas like parking garages.\nThe MPDV2 has a cargo volume of 450 feet and a range of 90-190 miles. Its roof and step-in height enable individuals to easily walk-in the vehicle and accommodate a standing position while inside.\nThe original SPAC transaction provided approximately $600 million, with a pro forma equity value of approximately $2.4 billion. Like other SPAC mergers, its stock price has fluctuated. It currently trades at about $15.90 per share for a market cap of approximately $3.7 billion. Canoo projects $2.0 billion in revenue in 2025 from about $500 million in engineering services, $1.2 billion from its consumer vehicle subscriptions, and the remainder from its commercial program. Canoo expects revenue of more than $300 million in 2022 after the launch of its lifestyle consumer vehicle.\nSince its first products are aimed at consumers, as is most of its forecasted 2025 revenue, I categorize it primarily as a consumer EV company. However, I think the design of that Canoo vehicle may not attract enough customers. More importantly, its subscription service way of selling its EV to consumers is risky. I think it has more potential in the commercial market, however, a dual strategy (consumer and commercial) is challenging. I like its skateboard platform design and that could prove to be a competitive advantage.\nRivian\nAlthough not yet public, I include Rivian because it has plans for an IPO as soon as Sept 2021, although it could slip into 2022. There are rumors that the company is targeting a market valuation of approximately $50B. Rivian has already raised more than $8 billion to date from Amazon, Ford, T. Rowe Price, and others.\nRivian has developed and vertically integrated a connected electric platform that can be flexibly applied to a range of applications, including the company's adventure products, as well as B2B products such as the Amazon last-mile delivery vans. The company's initial products, the R1T and R1S, provide a combination of performance, off-road capability, and utility. These vehicles will be produced at Rivian's manufacturing plant in Normal, Ill., with customer deliveries expected to begin in summer 2021. The launch of the R1S three-row electric SUV will follow in August.\nAdditional lower-priced models are being planned. The expected R2 series would include at least two smaller electric vehicles to coincide with the smaller platform, then another platform for R3.\nCommercial Delivery EV Companies\nEV truck companies differ based on the type of truck they are developing. The technology and markets are very different, so I separate them into two categories. The first category includes commercial delivery vehicles.\nCompanies making EV delivery vehicles have some major advantages that could make them good investments. First, delivery vehicles typically travel less than 250 miles during a day, so they can be conveniently recharged overnight. Secondly, they are typically sold in large quantities to fleets. This means that building a retail sales infrastructure is not necessary. It only requires a small salesforce. In addition, maintenance can also be provided at the fleet's operational center, so not as many service centers are required.\nThe disadvantage in this market is that there are a relatively small number of customers that buy in large volumes, so if the EV manufacturer can't get enough large customers, they may not be able to stay in business. GM estimates the combined market opportunity for parcel and food delivery, as well as reverse logistics, in the U.S. will be more than $850 billion by 2025.\nThe commercial market is expected to be a major growth area for EVs. Other start-up automakers like Rivian as well as legacy automakers such as Ford, Daimler, and GM have announced plans to enter the segment. GM recently announced its BrightDrop ecosystem for commercial customers that includes an all-new electric delivery van, the EV600 available by the end of 2021, as well as an integrated autonomous pallet and related services.\nThis group of EV companies focuses primarily on commercial delivery. In general, these are in the light-duty trucks category, although it also includes some medium-duty trucks. This generally includes the following commercial truck classes:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 1: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 0-6,000 pounds or 0-2,722 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 2: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 6,001-10,000 pounds or 2,722-4,536 kilograms.1</li>\n <li>Class 3: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 10,001-14,000 pounds or 4,536-6,350 kilograms.</li>\n</ul>\nIt can also include somewhat larger medium-duty EV delivery trucks:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.</li>\n</ul>\nEV delivery trucks also have an advantage over ICE vehicles because they can have a greater delivery storage space. Smaller buses and transit vehicles are also included in this category.\nLast-mile package delivery is not an immediate-term autonomous vehicle opportunity because it requires a delivery person to be on the truck anyway.\nWorkhorse Group (WKHS)\nWorkhorse has been a public company for ten years. Originally AMP Electric Vehicles, it was established in 2007 as a developmental-stage vehicle electrification company, focusing on conversions. AMP Electric Vehicles went public in 2010 trading on the OTC market under the AMPD symbol. When the economic benefits of conversion became less certain, it pivoted away from passenger vehicles and began to focus on electrifying commercial vehicles. AMP acquired the Workhorse brand and the Workhorse custom chassis assembly plant in Union City. In March of 2013, AMP formally changed its name to Workhorse Group Incorporated.\nThe Company designs and builds a last-mile delivery electric vehicle. The C-Series EVs cover the larger size of commercial delivery vehicles in Classes 3-5. As part of its solutions, it also develops cloud-based, real-time telematics performance monitoring systems. It sells its vehicles to fleet customers directly and through its primary distributor, Ryder Systems. It is currently focused on bringing the C-Series electric delivery truck to market and fulfilling the existing backlog of orders.\nThe C-Series looks like a viable EV replacement for the 350,000 last-mile delivery vehicles sold in the U.S. annually. It recently announced an increased driving range from 100 miles to 160, which should open more market opportunities. It has a viable short-term go-to-market strategy selling fleets to delivery companies. It currently has test vehicles with UPS, DHL, FedEx, Amazon, and Walmart.\nWorkhorse recently lost out on the United States Postal Services Next Generation Delivery Vehicle project, however, it is in the process of challenging this decision. Additionally, its investment in Lordstown also provides an indirect investment opportunity. On November 7, 2019, the Company entered a transaction with Lordstown Motors to grant LMC a perpetual and worldwide license to certain intellectual property relating to its W-15 electric pickup truck platform and related technology in exchange for royalties, equity interest (approximately 10%) in LMC, and other considerations. This was a $320 million asset for Workhorse at the end of 2020.\nWorkhorse received a significant increase in orders in Q4/2020 but built just seven trucks in the fourth quarter due to production systems and supply chain issues. Workhorse plans to continue to take it slow, striving to build three of its composite-body battery-electric trucks a day in March with a plan to reach 10 trucks a day by the end of June. This makes its original 2021 goal of producing 1,800 trucks unlikely. It partnered with Hitachi and Hitachi Capital America (\"HCA\") to improve the Company's manufacturing, operational, and supply chain capabilities as well as to develop a national dealer network to support Workhorse's sales with vehicle financing options for both dealers and customers.\nWorkhorse has a market cap of approximately $1.9 billion. While Workhorse had ongoing revenue, unlike many other new EV companies, its revenue is still insignificant. It had a revenue of $1.4 million in 2020 and $377,000 in 2019. It has a backlog of over 8,000 vehicles but doesn't expect to be able to build many of those in 2021. It raised $270 million in capital over several financings, providing the Company with additional capital to build its backlog. It had cash of $215 million as of March 1, 2021. Because Workhorse is a traditional public company, it hasn't made long-term financial projections like SPAC-based companies.\nElectric Last Mile (FIII)\nElectric Last Mile, based in Troy Michigan, was founded by Jason Luo, former CEO of Ford China before it was acquired by China's Ningbo Joyson Electronic for $920 million in 2016, including James Taylor, former CEO of GM's Hummer brand and former CEO of electric car maker Karma Automotive. Taylor serves as the company's top executive with Luo as the company's chairman.\nThe company plans to launch a small electric delivery van (class 1-2), called the UD-1, in the third quarter of 2021, and then introduce an Urban Utility vehicle (Class 2-3) in 2022. These are expected to compete with Workhorse, Rivian, Canoo, as well as the Ford eTransit and the GMC BV1, none of which is expected to be a Class 1 vehicle.\nThe company says it has 30,000 preorders for its van, representing more than $1 billion in sales. Electric Last Miles vehicles will be based on Sokon's commercial van made in China through a joint venture with Dongfeng Automobile Co Ltd. in order to accelerate development time.\nElectric Last Mile (ELM) is expected to manufacture the vans in a former General Motors Co. Hummer plant in Mishawaka, Ind., that the company is acquiring from China's Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co. Ltd. The plant has the capacity to produce 100,000 vehicles annually with plans to build approximately 4,000 UD-1 vans by the end of 2021. The UD-1 has a starting price of $32,500 and a range of 150 miles. The battery for the vehicle is expected to be supplied by the Chinese battery company CATL.\nELM believes that it has a competitive advantage because its first vehicle, the ELM Urban Delivery, is scheduled to be available in 2021. It is based on a proven, existing platform developed and sold by Sokon Group in the Asian market, where there are 30,000 of these electric delivery vehicles driving 1.5 million miles every day. At the close of the business combination, ELM will be an independent, U.S. company producing electric vehicles in the U.S. with Sokon Group providing access to its know-how, parts supply, and field and service data.\nELM expects that the Urban Delivery vehicle will be the first electric delivery vehicle coming to market in the class 1 category (GVW of 6,000 lbs or less) in the U.S. It will also have 35% more carrying volume compared to similar ICE delivery vehicles, a critical part of the value proposition. It also anticipates that its price and greater carrying volume will allow it to take market share from the class 2 category of vehicles as well.\nIts crossover product portfolio strategy targets commercial delivery vehicles spanning from class 1 to class 3, which represents over 80% of the last mile market.\nELM anticipates $122 million in revenue in 2021, rapidly increasing to $3 billion in 2025. The price of FIII stock increased immediately following its announcement with Electric Last Mile, rising more than 40% to $14.50, but now it has dropped closer to the original deal price to $10.25 for a market cap of approximately $1.5 billion.\nGreenPower Motor Company (GP)\nGreenPower Motor Company Inc. is a Canadian battery-electric bus manufacturer with multiple models of high- and low-floor vehicles, including transit buses, school buses, and shuttles. GreenPower offers commercial vehicles for delivery, public transit, schools, vanpooling, micro-transit, shuttles, and is developing a capability of autonomous operation. It went public on August 28, 2020.\nIn 2014 GreenPower launched its first purpose-built, battery-electric bus, the EV350, 40-foot transit bus. GreenPower received its first order in 2017 for ten EV350s from the City of Porterville, California.\nGreenPower's electric buses are purpose-built and designed to be all-electric, allowing it to put the battery and propulsion system in optimized locations that provide weight and structural advantages. Its primary EV is the EV Star with more than 120 vehicles delivered. It comes in several variations:\n<ul>\n <li>EV Star - Up to 19 passengers</li>\n <li>EV Star Plus - Up to 24 passengers</li>\n <li>EV Star ADA - Passenger and curbside lift for ADA</li>\n <li>EV Star Cargo - 5,000 pounds of load</li>\n <li>EV Star Cargo Plus - 570 cubic feet of cargo space.</li>\n</ul>\nIts EV school bus seats up to 90 students and has a range of up to 150 miles.\nGreenPower had revenue of $13.5 million in 2020 It has about $21 million in cash. It's an interesting alternative since it is already shipping EVs, has revenue, and also has a lower market cap of less than $1 billion. Since it did a traditional IPO, it hasn't published longer-term financial forecasts.\nArrival (CIIC)\nArrival was founded in 2015 in London to make a variety of commercial electric vehicles. It has approximately 1,200 employees across 11 cities in 8 countries. In November 2020, Arrival and the SPAC CIIG entered into a business combination agreement with an implied valuation of $5.39 billion.\nArrival plans on releasing four commercial EVs over the next few years.\n<ul>\n <li>Q4/2021: An electric bus for 8-125 passengers and a range of 240-400km</li>\n <li>Q3/2022: An electric delivery van with a payload of 975-2,000kg and a range of 150-340km</li>\n <li>2022: A larger electric van with a payload of 4,000 kg and a range of 190-400km</li>\n <li>2023: a small vehicle platform with a range of 100-300km.</li>\n</ul>\nThis mix provides a nice diversified portfolio of EVs. Arrival claims to have received orders from UPS for 10,000 vans. It plans a unique flexible manufacturing approach using micro-factories with each projected to manufacture 10,000 vans per year. All of its vehicles use a modular skateboard electric platform.\nArrival ambitiously projects $14.1 billion in revenue in 2024. Half of that revenue is expected from delivery vans, 22% from buses, and the rest from the large van and its small vehicle platform. With CIIC's stock price at $24.80 per share, Arrival's current market cap is relatively high at approximately $15.0 billion. Justifying its market cap depends on its ability to release, sell, and produce its four commercial EVs.\nProterra (ACTC)\nProterra is a commercial electric vehicle company with over a decade of production experience. The Company has designed an end-to-end, flexible technology platform that claims to deliver higher performance and a low total cost of ownership to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end customers.\nProterra, Inc., was originally founded in Golden, Colorado, by Dale Hill in 2004. Later the company wanted to take the lead in creating zero-emission, U.S.-based transit buses. In 2010 it moved its manufacturing plant from Golden, Colorado to Greenville, South Carolina. In 2015, Proterra was awarded a $3 million grant from the California Energy Commission to fund the design, development, and construction of the company's battery-electric transit bus manufacturing line in the City of Industry, California. It moved its headquarters from Greenville, South Carolina, to Burlingame, California, in October 2015. Proterra raised more than $600 million in funding.\nIt is going public through the SPAC ArcLight (ACTC) with a pro forma valuation of $1.6 billion. Upon completion of the transaction, Proterra expects to have up to $825 million in cash to fund growth initiatives, including R&amp;D and the expansion of its next-generation battery program.\nProterra has three complementary businesses:\n<ul>\n <li>Proterra Powered: Delivering battery systems and electrification solutions to commercial vehicle manufacturers</li>\n <li>Proterra Transit:Providing an electric transit bus OEMs</li>\n <li>Proterra Energy:Offering turnkey charging and energy management solutions.</li>\n</ul>\nThe company's battery systems have been proven in more than 16 million service miles driven by its fleet of transit vehicles and validated through partnerships with commercial vehicle OEMs. Proterra has produced and delivered more than 300 megawatt-hours of battery systems, more than 550 heavy-duty electric transit buses, and installed 54 megawatts of charging systems.\nProterra expected $193 million of revenue in 2020, with an estimated $750 million in existing orders and backlog. It projects $2.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with about 1/3 coming from its Transit business, and 2/3 From Powered &amp; Energy. At ACTC's current stock price of $17.85, Proterra has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nRivian\nRivian (see earlier description in consumer retail) will also compete in the commercial delivery market. It has been working with Amazon (a major investor) to build large electric delivery vans for Prime. Developed specifically for Amazon, a small fleet of Prime vans is on the road now, testing deliveries to customers and gathering feedback. In late fall, it could grow to a large fleet as Rivian ramps up the volume.\nThe EV range of 150 miles is tailored to Amazon's use cycle to optimize the size, weight, and cost of the commercial vehicle. Rivian has three sizes of batteries, but Amazon is starting with just one of them.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nSee the previous summary under consumer retail EV.\nMedium and Long-Haul Trucking EV Companies\nCompanies developing medium- and long-haul EV trucks face a more difficult challenge with battery range. These trucks haul much more weight than commercial delivery vehicles and because they are designed for long distances, they can't stop every 200-300 miles for recharging.\nFor this reason, many of these companies are using unique hybrid technologies for their trucks. The EV trucks in this category are primarily heavy-duty but also include some medium-duty trucks and specialty vehicles. A couple of the companies focus on retrofitting trucks to be electric.\nMedium-Duty Trucks\nThe medium-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 4, 5, and 6:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 6: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 19,501-26,000 pounds or 8,846-11,793 kilograms.1</li>\n</ul>\nHeavy-Duty Trucks\nThe heavy-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 7 and 8:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 7: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 26,001 to 33,000 pounds or 11,794-14,969 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 8: This class of trucks has a GVWR of greater than 33,001 pounds or 14,969 kilograms and includes all tractor-trailers.</li>\n</ul>\nThe Tesla Semi is a battery vehicle planned for a range of 300 or 500 miles and a speed of 60 MPH with 80,000 lbs of cargo. Tesla plans to start shipping the Semi later this year when it expects to have sufficient cell volume to meet its needs with the production of its 4680 battery pack.\nNikola(NASDAQ:NKLA)\nNikola has been a very controversial company. Founded in 2015, it originally had two different strategies. Its primary strategy is to lease fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) Class-8 heavy trucks and provide the refueling infrastructure to corporate customers. Its second strategy was to develop the Badger EV truck using GM technology.\nNikola originally merged with a SPAC to go public, at an enterprise value of approximately $3.3 billion. On June 6th, 2020, its market cap jumped to more than $30 billion, then later it dropped because of problems with its originally planned deal with GM.\nNikola originally expected a deal with General Motors that included the production of the Nikola Badger EV pickup truck. The proposed arrangement was that GM would take a $2 billion equity stake in Nikola and in return would engineer and produce the Badger. In November 2020, GM and Nikola scrapped the original arrangement. Now it appears that GM will supply Nikola with only its Hydrotec hydrogen fuel-cell technology to integrate into the EV manufacturer's commercial class 7 and class 8 zero-emission semi-trucks. So, the Badger is probably dead.\nNikola now sees semi-trucks as the company's \"core business\" and fuel cells as an increasingly important segment of the semi-truck market thanks to their efficiency in weight and consumption. It expects to begin testing by the end of 2021.\nIt has received pre-orders from Anheuser-Busch and a few other companies, but it doesn't expect deliveries until 2023. Hydrogen fueling stations are key to its strategy, both providing a source of revenue and necessary fueling infrastructure for the trucks to operate, but they also cost a lot. In its March 2020 investor deck, Nikola said a single station capable of fueling 210 trucks a day would cost $16.6 million. Its initial planned network of 700 stations would cost roughly $11.6 billion.\nNikola was also accused of misrepresentation, and its executive chairman and founder stepped down.\nAt the time of the SPAC merger, it projected an optimistic forecast of more than $3 billion in revenue by 2024, with a net income of $145 million. Most of that revenue was expected to come from its Badger truck, which is no longer in the plans. Yet its market cap is still almost $6 billion.\nHyliion (HYLN)\nHyliion, founded in 2015 in Austin, went public in October 2020 through the SPAC Tortoise Acquisition Corp. (SHLL). In March 2019, automotive parts manufacturer Dana Inc. made an equity investment into Hyliion, and together they are manufacturing and marketing Class 8 EVs to Dana's customers, including Volvo, Navistar, and Peterbilt.\nHyliion's strategy is unique, and a very different strategy from Nikola. Essentially it generates electricity onboard the truck using compressed natural gas (CNG). This should be a benefit for longer-range trucking. Hyliion's Hypertruck concept involves an all-electric drivetrain utilizing Dana's electric motor, inverter, and axle technologies. The truck's batteries are fueled by onboard tanks of CNG. With some 700 CNG stations already operating nationwide, it believes that there no need to build out expensive superchargers or hydrogen infrastructure.\nKuwait-based logistics company, Agility, has already placed an order for 1,000 Hypertrucks with initial deliveries targeted in 2022. Combined with a fully electric drivetrain and a natural gas-powered onboard generator to recharge the battery, the Hypertruck ERX will provide more than 1,000 miles of range.\nHyliion will eventually compete with Nikola (FCEV) and the Tesla battery-based Semi, but it plans to have a longer range and lower operating costs. Its HyperTruck ERX is expected to be available in 2021. It also has a hybrid-electric truck.\nThe combination with SHLL had an estimated market cap of about $1.5 billion, with approximately $530 million going to the company, including a $325 million fully committed PIPE. At approximately $13.50 per share, its current market cap is approximately $2.2 billion, significantly down from its peak. Hyliion projects $2 billion in revenue in 2024, which it claims is only about 2% of the addressable market.\nXL Fleet (XL)\nXL Fleet is a 10-year old company that went public through the SPAC Pivotal. XL is different because it provides fleet electrification modifications for ICE trucks across a wide range of vehicle classes (class 2-5) and types. It has over 200 of the largest commercial and municipal fleets as customers, with more than 3,200 XL systems deployed and over 130 million miles driven by customers to date. XL's customer base includes FedEx, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Verizon, the City of Boston, Seattle Fire Department, Yale University, and Harvard University.\nXL's business model is essentially retrofitting existing trucks to be hybrids and then later expanding into fully electric truck conversions. It claims to be creating a fully integrated platform for this. It remains to be seen if the retrofitting business will continue to grow or will it diminish when more trucks are designed and manufactured with EV capabilities.\nUnlike some other EV companies that have no revenue yet because they are still developing products, XL is more of a small company doing low-volume retrofits. It had $7.2 million in revenue in 2019, $21 million in 2020, and estimates $76 million in 2021, but it forecasts $1.3 billion in revenue in 2024 in its investor presentation. It plans to do this by expanding its product line from hybrid to plug-in hybrid to fully electric across a broader range of trucks. It claims to have a $220 million sales pipeline for the next 12 months.\nShort-seller, Muddy Waters, claimed after talking to former XL Fleet employees, that it believed the company significantly exaggerated its order backlog, that the return on investment for the company's products was likely negative, and that it would not be able to compete with big car makers on electrification. The company thoroughly refuted these claims.\nThe original enterprise valuation was approximately $1.4 billion at a $10 share price for the merger. Its price jumped by about 35% but has since gone back down to $12.40 for a market cap of about $1.8 billion. Although XL Fleet has revenue and other EV companies don't, this may not be an advantage. It appears to be a small company for many years that has gone public at a high valuation with grand plans. The risks are in its ability to make a jump from $76 million in 2021 to $1.3 billion in 2024, as well as the question about retrofitting being replaced by new EV trucks by then.\nXos (NGAC)\nXos Trucks specializes in the field of manufacturing fully electric commercial vehicles. It features a software platform that is designed to accommodate an extensive variety of medium-duty bodies, wheelbase, and range requirements up to 200 miles. It was founded in 2016 and headquartered in North Hollywood, California. It received $20 million of investment in 2020 and now is going public through a merger with the SPAC ExtGen Acquisition Corporation (NGAC) at an estimated proforma value of $1.965 billion.\nIts focus is on medium- and heavy-duty last mile and return-to-base segments (class 5/6, class 6/7, and class 7/8) commercial fleets and specialty vehicles. Some vehicles are currently in production and in regular on-road operations with key fleet customers, and it claimed 6,000 unit orders in backlog.\nIts MD-platform is for classes 5-6 for pickup and delivery. Its HD X-Platform is an adaptable chassis for highway, vocational, and severe work conditions. Its market is for customers with highly predictable routes that allow for batteries designed for a more limited range. A significantly larger frame and smaller battery pack allow for reduced density.\nXos has a bundled all-in-one offering that allows fleets to access all the tools and services they need to go electric with a single point of contact at a fixed monthly expense.\nXos had $3 million in revenue in 2020 and estimates $14 million in 2021. However, it forecasts $5.2 billion in revenue in 2025. At the current stock price of $10.30, its market cap is approximately $2 billion, about the same as its original SPAC transaction.\nLion Electric (NGA)\nLion Electric is a Canadian company founded by Marc Bédard in 2008. Its focus is to be a leader in designing, developing, and manufacturing purpose-built urban electric vehicles; vehicles that are specifically designed as delivery trucks, refuse trucks, bucket trucks, moving trucks, school buses, and shuttle buses. It has over 300 all-electric vehicles on the road today.\nIn November 2020, it announced that it was going public through the SPAC NGA. The transaction had an estimated pro forma enterprise value of $1.5 billion.\nIt plans on seven new truck models and one new school bus, for a total of 15 all-electric vehicles, representing a full line-up from class 5 to class 8 electric trucks and a full line-up of electric school buses. Its vehicles are produced at its existing manufacturing plant, which has the capacity for the production of up to 2,500 vehicles per year. It intends to open a new plant in the U.S. capable of delivering over 20,000 Lion trucks and buses per year by 2022.\nIts all-electric class 6 and class 8 commercial urban trucks combine power, comfort, and modern technology. Custom-built chassis and cabin designed specifically for an all-electric heavy-duty vehicle. The LionC is an all-electric Type C school bus manufactured in North America. The body and chassis were specifically designed to deliver optimal performance. The LionM is an all-electric midi/minibus that meets paratransit and public transportation requirements. Created and designed specifically for the paratransit market, the is spacious and offers unique features that provide enhanced security and accessibility to the end-users.\nLion Electric had $29 million in revenue in 2020 and expects $204 million in 2021. It forecasts revenue to jump to $3.6 billion a few years later in 2024. Its current market cap is approximately $3.6 billion based on its current stock price of $18.33.\nLightning eMotors (GIK)\nLightning eMotors, formerly Lightning Systems, was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Loveland, Colorado. It provides fleet electrification for familiar commercial vehicle platforms by retrofitting them with its electric powertrains. Lightning eMotors produces electric fleet medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including delivery trucks, shuttle buses, passenger vans, ambulances, bucket trucks, chassis-cab models, and city transit buses. It focuses on urban commercial zero-emission vehicles with a full range of class 3 through class 7 battery-electric and fuel-cell electric vehicles.\nLighting eMotors helps commercial fleets achieve their sustainability goals by offering zero-emission battery-electric vans, trucks, and buses based on familiar, proven vehicles from manufacturers such as Ford and GM. It works with customers, to help them identify their unique commercial electric vehicle, charging, and grant support needs.\nThe Lightning products include integrated all-electric powertrains for the Ford Transit 350HD passenger and cargo vans, Ford E-450 shuttle bus and cutaway models, Ford F-59 step/food van, Ford F-550 cargo trucks and buses, Chevrolet 6500XD Low Cab Forward model, and 30-foot, 35-foot, and 40-foot transit buses.\nLightning has 120 vehicles on the road, and 1,500 vehicles already on order from customers. In addition to making vehicles and powertrains, Lightning also provides a full suite of charging solutions for customers.\nThe deal with GIK has an enterprise value of $650 million, although there is also an Earnout of 20.0% of total pro forma shares outstanding to Lightning eMotors shareholders if the stock crosses certain price thresholds.\nAt the current price, of $11.73, GIK has a market cap of approximately $1 billion, a little more than the original transaction valuation. Similar to XL Fleet, Lightning has the risk that retrofitting may only be an interim business opportunity until more EV trucks are produced.\nPublic Chinese EV Companies\nChina will be the biggest EV market opportunity, and EV start-ups may do better there because there isn't as much entrenched competition from domestic auto companies. China is already the largest EV market in the world, with almost a million EVs sold in 2019. Its EV market represents almost half of the global EV sales volume and is much larger than the U.S. market.\nThe Chinese government has ambitions to become a global leader in new energy vehicles. Soon after the coronavirus outbreak subsided within the country, Chinese authorities announced new policies to support the auto and electric vehicle industries.\nThese Chinese companies are traded through American depository shares (ADS) that contain certain risks. There are financial reporting and transparency risks with these companies, and on top of that, the newer companies are being classified as \"emerging growth\" companies that are already exempt from certain transparency requirements set out in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Like the previous EV stock, these stocks have also been very volatile.\nIn addition to legacy auto manufacturers like BYD, there are also three Chinese EV companies that are publicly traded through American depositary shares.\nBYD Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:BYDDY)\nBYD, which means build your dreams, is the automotive subsidiary of the Chinese multinational BYD Co Ltd. It was founded in January 2003, following BYD Company's acquisition of Tsinchuan Automobile Company. The company produces automobiles, buses, electric bicycles, forklifts, rechargeable batteries, and trucks. The current model range of automobiles includes electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and petrol-engined vehicles. Thirteen years ago, on the advice of his famously skeptical lieutenant, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett made a $232 million investment in BYD, a relatively unknown Chinese car company.\nBy parlaying BYD's rechargeable battery technology into a fast-growing carmaking operation, it gained a foothold in the fledgling electric vehicle market, building longer-lasting batteries and cheaper vehicles than American and Japanese manufacturers were managing to do at the time. In BYD, Buffett and Munger believed they had found a company with a shot at one day becoming the largest player in a global automobile market that was inevitably going electric.\nBYD's start to 2021 was strong with 19,871 plug-in electric cars sold in January in China, including hybrid plug-ins. That was a big increase over 2020 but not as much as 2019.\nLI Auto (LI)\nLixiang, formerly known as Chehejia (\"Car and Home\"), was founded in 2015 and went public in the U.S. on July 30th, 2020. It is a Beijing-based electric-vehicle startup with vertically integrated manufacturing. It designs, researches, manufactures, sells, and offers services featuring a few models of electric vehicles.\nThe company's SUVs are hybrids of a sort. They use electric motors (one on the front axle and one on the rear), but those motors are powered by a combination of a 40.5kWh battery packanda 1.2-liter turbocharged engine paired to a 45-liter fuel tank and a 100kW electric generator, which generates power for the battery pack in real-time. The idea is that the car can be driven for about 100 miles on battery power alone, but it has a total range of nearly 500 miles when leveraging the combustion engine generator.\nThe Company's primary product is an SUV under its brand Li ONE. It also sells peripheral products and provides related services, such as charging stalls, vehicle internet connection services, and extended lifetime warranties. Li Auto is looking to sell a variety of SUVs built on its hybrid technology that range from around $21,000 to about $70,000. The company started shipping its first model in late 2019. It's a midsize SUV is well-appointed and has lots of touchscreens and technology. A full-size premium version is planned for release in 2022.\nDeliveries of Li ONEs were 14,464 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a 67.0% quarter-over-quarter increase and setting a new quarterly record. Deliveries for the full year 2020 reached 32,624 vehicles. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $635 million.\nLI auto went public on July 30th, 2020, raising $1.1 billion at an initial price of $15.50 per share but quickly reached almost $24. It is currently valued at approximately $37 billion at a price of approximately $25.72 per share.\nXPeng (XPEV)\nXiaopeng (XPeng) Motors is a Chinese electric vehicle and technology company that designs and manufactures smart cars. It was founded in 2015 and went public on August 27, 2020, using American depository shares, raising about $1 billion. To date, it has raised about $2.6 billion.\nXPeng aims its EVs at technology-savvy middle-class Chinese consumers, with prices ranging from $22,000 to $45,000 after government subsidies. In some ways, it is a Tesla knock-off at a much lower price. XPeng started production of the G3 in November 2018, and as of July 31, 2020, delivered 18,741. It started production of the P7 and began delivery in May 2020, and as of July 31, 2020, it had delivered 1,966 EVs. The P7 has a range of more than 400 miles. It plans to launch a third Smart EV, a sedan, in 2021. The G3 was among the top-three best-selling electric SUVs in China in 2019.\nXPeng is interesting because it has a platform strategy and is moving aggressively into autonomous driving. It uses a platform strategy to expand product offerings by launching one Smart EV model each year to broaden the addressable market. It builds new models on two highly flexible Smart EV platforms, called David and Edward, respectively. The David platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,600 millimeters to 2,800 millimeters, and the Edward platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,800 millimeters to 3,100 millimeters. It also adopted a platform approach for software systems.\nXPeng claims to be developing an autonomous driving capability for its EVs. The P7 is the first production vehicle to feature the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Xavier system-on-a-chip (SoC) autonomous driving platform. The company's Smart Electric Platform Architecture (SEPA) runs on 2 chips - NVIDIA for the XPILOT and Qualcomm's Snapdragon™ 820A for intelligent services and infotainment, including cameras inside and outside, radars, HD-map, and ultrasonic sensors. Like Tesla, it claims it can create sufficiently-autonomous driving without lidar.\nTo enhance brand recognition and allow more people to experience its Smart EVs, it deployed a small number of Smart EVs in a ride-hailing service in Guangzhou on a trial basis, but it has no current plan to scale up a ride-hailing service.\nXpeng sees first-quarter 2021 deliveries rising 450% year-over-year to 12,500 vehicles. Revenues are expected to increase 533% from a year ago. The company didn't provide bottom-line estimates for the quarter, but will likely post another net loss as it ramps up manufacturing, invests in R&amp;D, and builds out a new manufacturing plant set to open in 2022.\nXpeng reported selling 12,964 vehicles in Q4 2020, up 303% from a year ago. It delivered a total of 27,041 vehicles in 2020, up 112%. It makes the P7 sedan, a rival to the made-in-China Tesla Model 3, and the small G3 SUV.\nThe stock opened on August 27, 2020 at a price of $15 and a valuation of $11 billion, but its stock jumped more than 40% shortly after. Its current valuation is about $35 billion at a stock price of approximately $36.13 per share. It had about $300 million in revenue in 2019 with a loss of about $500 million.\nNio (NIO)\nUnlike previous companies, Nio has been a public company for some time. It originally went public in the U.S. back in September of 2018, selling IPO shares at $6.26 and raising $1 billion.\nNio's IPO was far from smooth. After going public at $6.26 per share, it traded down to nearly $1. Then in the middle of the coronavirus outbreak, Nio received a much-needed investment of $1 billion from investors, including state-backed entities.\nNio designs, jointly manufactures, and sells smart and connected premium electric vehicles, attempting to develop next-generation technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving, and artificial intelligence. Joint manufacturing means that it uses a state-owned contract manufacturer to build its cars.\nNio plans to provide customers with comprehensive, convenient, and innovative charging solutions and other user-centric services. It began deliveries of the ES8, a 7-seater high-performance premium electric SUV in China in June 2018, and its variant, the six-seater ES8, in March 2019. Nio officially launched the ES6, a 5-seater high-performance premium electric SUV, in December 2018 and began deliveries in June 2019. It officially launched the EC6, a 5-seater smart premium electric Coupe SUV, in December 2019 with deliveries in 2020.\nNio sold 17,353 EVs in Q4/2020 and 43,728 for the year. It warned a shortage in chips and batteries will force a production slowdown to 7,500 a month in Q2 from 10,000 vehicles a month in February.\nNio currently trades at more than $43 per share, including a big jump recently, for a valuation of approximately $48 billion. It had revenue of $2.3 billion in 2019 for a loss of $3.8 billion.\nSummary\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this should provide exciting new investment opportunities. However, the investment terrain is complex. There are dozens of new start-ups where the public can now invest that were previously exclusively venture capital investment opportunities. Many of these are following different roads to success. There are legacy auto manufacturers that could prosper or get destroyed in this transition. There are some exciting new EV company opportunities in China. And then there is Tesla.\nThis EV roadmap is intended to help investors explore different roads to investment by explaining the basic strategies for these EV companies. These roads can have different opportunities and risks, and the roadmap helps to frame these. Above all, valuation is an overriding risk that is highlighted throughout this article.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>New Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNew Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-19 14:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.\nLast October, I wrote a popular article providing...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车","01211":"比亚迪股份","NKLA":"Nikola Corporation","LI":"理想汽车","GP":"GreenPower Motor Company Inc.","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","GOEV":"Canoo Inc.","WKHS":"Workhorse Group, Inc.","F":"福特汽车","002594":"比亚迪","TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来","FSR":"菲斯克","HYLN":"Hyliion Holdings Corp."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1196402560","content_text":"Summary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.\nLast October, I wrote a popular article providing a roadmap for investing in electric vehicles, but since then, so much has changed: new entrants, new strategies, fluctuating valuations, etc.\nSo, I updated and greatly expanded the previous EV investment roadmap.\nThis update includes a deeper look at valuations for 23 EV companies with revenue projections, when available.\nIt also classifies these EV companies into their primary market categories and summarizes their different strategies.\n\nPhoto by Sven Loeffler/iStock via Getty Images\nMy article Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap published five months ago, was popular, and some followers have requested an update. Many new EV companies entered the market, most of them through SPACs. Valuations fluctuated wildly, and there has been a great deal of publicity around these companies.\nThis new updated EV investment roadmap is greatly expanded. In addition to updating the strategies and progress of companies previously discussed, I expanded the number of companies covered. This article also groups EV companies into their primary markets, enabling better comparisons and evaluation of market opportunities. In addition, it includes a comparative valuation chart showing every company's market cap with a comparison to projected revenue, where possible. This takes advantage (good or bad) of looking at the long-term revenue forecasts provided in SPAC mergers that public companies can't make.\nIn addition to the EV manufacturers discussed here, there are also EV investment opportunities in charging station companies, battery manufacturers, and battery materials companies. These were covered in the original roadmap and may also be updated in a later article.\nApproximately 2 million EVs were sold in 2019, and although the number declined along with all auto sales in 2020, it is forecasted to increase in 2021 and reach 8-10 million by 2025. Some forecast that EV sales will be greater than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2030, or even earlier. The automobile market appears to be moving toward a historical transformation, and exceptional investment gains can be made by anticipating new emerging industries and investing in the eventual winners of those new industries. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)are obvious examples. Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to create a new emerging industry.\nThere are also significant risks. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to be released in the next three years, which will drive rapid growth in EV sales. However, the expected sales from these new models, as well as the increasing expectations from Tesla, most likely exceed the total projected market. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the companies covered here won't exist five years from now. It reminds me of the internet bubble of the late 1990s when scores of internet-based companies went public with little or no revenue. Almost all of these failed within three years -- however, a couple, including Amazon, went on to enormous success.\nEVs provide a major new investment opportunity with high risks. To succeed, you need to have a clear EV investment roadmap.\nSo, how can you invest in this new emerging market? The EV landscape is complex and investment opportunities are varied. While Tesla is the unquestioned leader in EVs, some consider it overvalued and unlikely to show exceptional returns to new investors. The current U.S. legacy automakers are committed to introducing many new EVs in the next few years, and they have some entrenched advantages with volume manufacturing capabilities, a dealer infrastructure, and loyal customers. There are exciting new EV start-ups in the U.S. that have come public this year, mostly through Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), and there are several interesting publicly traded Chinese EV manufacturers.\nThis new roadmap for EV investment classifies companies into three primary markets segments:\n\nTheConsumer Retailsegment includes EVs sold to consumers individually, such as SUVs, pickup trucks, sedans, etc.\nTheCommercial Deliverysegment includes local delivery EV vans and trucks sold to fleets.\nTheMedium- and Long-Haul Truckingsegment includes heavier Class 4 - Class 8 trucks, as well as special industrial vehicles.\n\nIn addition, it categorizesLegacy ManufacturersandChinese EV Companies. This enables investors to evaluate investment opportunities by considering unique opportunities within each market segment.\nThere is an enormous amount of investment optimism for EVs, and retail investors have been aggressively buying into EV stocks with seemingly no regard for valuation. Then there is the additional challenge of valuing companies with no revenue, especially those coming public through SPACs. So, valuation is an important investment consideration.\nSo let's start by looking at an overview of comparative EV valuations.\nEV Investment Valuation Overview\nThe following chart summarizes valuations for 23 EV companies, including several legacy companies. For SPACs, market cap estimates are computed using the pro forma number of shares at closing, otherwise using the valuation of the SPAC prior to closing drastically underestimates the valuation, which may be misleading to novice investors. Price/Sales ratios (market cap divided by revenue) are used to compare valuations. As a benchmark, current P/S ratios vary. For example, auto and truck companies have a ratio of 2.7X. Software companies have the highest ratios of over 10X.\nIn the chart, companies that currently have revenue show current P/S ratios. Where projections are available, projected P/S ratios are computed. A note of caution, however. Many of the EV companies came public through SPACs and published their projections (which public companies cannot do), and many of these are likely to prove unrealistic.\nAll of the longer-term revenue projections come from the company (C) forecasts with a SPAC. Some of these may turn out to be accurate, not many are most likely unrealistic. Some, like Lucid, Faraday, and Arrival forecast hitting more than $10 billion in revenue in a few years, when it took Tesla more than 10. Things are different now and they might achieve these, but they could also find that it will take longer to complete development, ramp up production, and create enough customer demand. Many companies may also find that there will be significant capital requirements to achieve this type of growth, and shareholders will be diluted.\n\nTesla, the \"gold standard\" in EVs, has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, which many people believe is overvalued. Its market cap is approximately 20X 2020 revenue and 10X estimated 2022 revenue.\nTesla (TSLA)\nIn the U.S., and to a lesser extent in China, Tesla is the dominant EV provider. It has approximately 60% of the U.S. EV market and about 20% of the market in China. I own a Tesla and love it, but an investment in Tesla stock requires getting comfortable with its valuation. Tesla has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, although declining lately, which some consider still overvalued while others see upside potential.\nThe investment opportunity with Tesla is based on the expectation that it will continue to dominate the EV market, or at least maintain significant market share, despite much greater competition from the expected introduction of hundreds of new EV models in the next few years.\nThere is a great deal already published about Tesla, so I'll move on.\nLegacy Automakers\nSome people think that the legacy automakers will simply fade away. Historically, that was the case in some other industries, but it is not going to happen to most automakers. They are not standing still waiting to become obsolete. Most have aggressive strategies to replace ICE vehicles with EVs. GM plans to invest $27 billion and build and launch as many as 30 new EV models by 2025. Ford plans to invest $29 billion in EVs by 2025 and launch as many as 16 EVs in the next two years. Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY)has also committed billions to develop new EVs.\nThe competitive advantage that legacy automakers have in selling their new EVs is their dealer network. Will new EV customers prefer to continue going to their regular auto dealer to buy their new EV?\nAlmost all legacy automakers worldwide are developing and launching EVs including Volkswagen, Peugeot, Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi, Hyundai/Kia. Let's look a little more closely at GM and Ford as the leaders in the U.S.\nGeneral Motors (GM)\nGM has committed to introducing 20 new electric vehicles by 2023, including EVs across Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC, and Buick. It recently announced that it has already sold out the first-year production of its Hummer electric pickup. By mid-decade, it expects to sell a million EVs per year in its two largest markets: North America and China. As a reference point, Tesla reported deliveries of 367,500 vehicles globally in 2019.\nGM has a solid platform strategy for its EVs. It plans on building its EVs using five interchangeable drive units and three different motors from its Ultium Drive System platform. Ultium energy options range from 50 to 200 kWh, which could enable an estimated range of up to 400 miles. Most of its EVs will have 400-volt battery packs and up to 200 kW fast-charging capability while the truck platform will have 800-volt battery packs and 350 kW fast-charging capabilities.\nThe key building blocks of the Ultium battery system are large-scale, high-energy cells. Engineered in partnership with LG Energy Solutions, they use both advanced chemistry and a smart cell design that's optimized for a broad portfolio of EVs. GM engineers and scientists are actively researching and testing new elements in battery chemistry to lower costs and improve charge times. Ultium can contain either vertically- or horizontally-stacked cells to integrate into vehicle design: vertically for trucks, SUVs, and crossovers, or horizontally for cars and performance vehicles. As new chemistry is developed and becomes available, the battery management system could digitally update the modules.\nGM also has other EV opportunities with its BrightDrop commercial EV service and its Cruise subsidiary. BrightDrop will not just sell delivery EVs, it will provide an entire service platform for commercial delivery customers. Its set of electric delivery vehicles starts with the EV600 and includes the BrightDrop EP1, a pod-like electric pallet. SeeGeneral Motors' Aggressive EV/AV Strategies May Payoff Big.\nWith its highest stock price of $61.65, GM's current market cap is approximately $89 billion, increasing primarily because of its progress with EVs. This approximately 3X valuation in 2018, but still only 13% of Tesla.\nFord (F)\nFord is also investing heavily in EVs. It just introduced the Mustang Mach-E, a battery-powered crossover with sports car styling, and plans to introduce an all-electric version of its best-selling F-150 pickup later this year. Also, planned is an electric edition of the full-size Transit van, which has been popular in the commercial delivery market. Ford has confirmed plans to build a luxury Lincoln crossover on a battery-powered platform provided by Rivian. The automaker also plans to introduce two new midsize electric crossovers, one each for the Ford and Lincoln brands by 2023.\nMustang Mach-E. Source: Ford\nFord's market cap is approximately $51 billion, twice its previous market cap, and also increasing.\nConsumer Retail EV Companies\nThe consumer retail market has some unique characteristics for new EV companies. Sales are made individually, not in fleets. This diversifies the risk upon launch because only a sufficient number of customers need to be attracted to the new EV. A wave of popularity can provide terrific momentum.\nHowever, the lack of a dealer network can be an impediment. Selling EVs directly to consumers instead of through dealers is prohibited in most states. By law, auto manufacturers can't compete with franchised dealers. These are laws that go back many decades to protect dealers. This can be a major impediment for new companies without established independent dealer franchises. So, new AV companies. like Tesla, need to sell their vehicles online. Tesla has successfully done this, but it took a lot of work and time. Lack of a dealer network also creates impediments in service.\nIn addition, over the next 4-5 years, autonomous capabilities will be increasingly important to luxury vehicles. This may prove to be a challenge to start-up EV companies because they can't afford to develop this technology.\nLet's look closer at the alternative consumer retail EV investments.\nLucid Motors (CCIV)\nLucid was founded in 2007 under the name Atieva and originally focused on building electric vehicle batteries and powertrains for other vehicle manufacturers. The company rebranded itself as Lucid Motors in October 2016 and shifted its strategy to develop an all-electric, high-performance, luxury vehicle. Shortly after that, it encountered financial difficulties and struggled to get short-term funding. In 2018 it raised more than $1 billion in investment, primarily from Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund, and gave up a majority of the company.\nLucid Motors reached an agreement to become a publicly-traded company through a merger with the SPAC Churchill Capital IV Corp., in one of the largest deals SPAC EV deals. The combined company, in which Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund will continue to be the largest shareholder, had a transaction equity value of $11.75 billion (for $10/share). At the same time, it closed a PIPE investment priced at $15 a share, giving it an implied pro forma equity value of $24 billion. Rumors about this deal circulated before the transaction was formally announced, making it one of the most anticipated SPAC deals. The hype and speculation drove up the stock price of Churchill Capital IV Corp. from its opening price of $10 a share to almost $60. I believe that some of this may have been driven by novice SPAC investors who didn't realize that the valuation of CCIV didn't include the eventual valuation of Lucid. The share price dropped more than 30% after the details of the deal were announced. It's also likely that Lucid renegotiated the terms of the merger based on the price jump.\nThe company's first product is the Lucid Air, a well-equipped luxury electric vehicle that features 406 miles of projected range and 480 horsepower with a starting price of $77,400, or $69,900 after the U.S. Federal Tax Credit of $7,500. This new Lucid Air model is positioned as a high-performance, ultra-efficient luxury EV sedan in a line of future vehicles that are expected to include Lucid Air Touring, Grand Touring, and Dream Edition versions.\nThe company plans to begin production and deliveries of the Lucid Air in North America in the second half of 2021. Previously the company aimed to begin deliveries earlier in 2021. It intends to sell the car in Europe in 2022, followed by China in 2023. Lucid vehicles will be produced at its new factory in Casa Grande, Arizona. The company plans to expand the factory in phases in the coming years to have the capacity to produce 365,000 units per year at scale. The initial phase of the $700 million factory construction was completed late last year and will have the capacity to produce 30,000 vehicles a year.\nLucid also apparently has a commitment to build an assembly plant in Saudi Arabia, which was rumored to be a condition of the $1 billion investment from the Saudi public fund. The Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund also provided $600 million in bridge financing and invested in the SPAC deal as well. So, while this assembly plant may be expensive and may not be critical, it will most likely need to happen.\nLucid has ambitious plans to achieve $14 billion in revenue in 2025, and its current stock price at $29.17, which gives it a market cap of more than $46 billion, may already reflect those ambitions. Its market cap is roughly the same as Ford.\nFisker (FSR)\nFisker, which had its origins with Fisker Automotive, is an interesting story that ended in bankruptcy. Henrik Fisker originally co-founded Fisker Automotive in 2007. He was responsible for designing many premium cars such as the Aston Martin. Subsequently, Fisker Automotive had to deal with a Tesla lawsuit against Fisker Automotive alleging it stole Tesla's technology, a controversial $528.7 million conditional loan from the Department of Energy, a recall of its battery produced by A123, and the loss of several hundred vehicles in hurricane Sandy. Henrik Fisker resigned in March 2013 because of disagreements over business strategy and in November 2013, Fisker filed its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case.\nHowever, Henrik Fisker retained the Fisker brand and trademarks, and in 2016 he started another electric vehicle company named Fisker Inc. with the Fisker brand and trademarks. In 2019, Fisker shifted from developing a sports car with a solid-state battery to the Ocean SUV featuring a lithium-ion battery, which it later abandoned for a solid-state battery.\nFisker is positioning itself in a unique segment for those who want the most environmentally friendly EV. While this may be an early growth segment for EVs, it's difficult to estimate its eventual competitive advantage and the size of this environmentally-friendly market segment.\nThe Ocean is a crossover made of recycled metal and plastic with an expected base price of $37,499, and an expected lease of less than $400 a month. Fisker's plan is essentially a lease-only business model that lets customers keep a vehicle for years or return it at any time. It aims to source motors, batteries, and other components from technical partnerships with automakers and will outsource production from existing auto plants. Fisker is currently taking reservations at $250 for the Ocean. It also announced an agreement with Foxconn to jointly develop a vehicle pioneering a new market segment to be sold globally under the Fisker brand commencing in Q4 2023. at the end of 2022. Production will start at Magna Steyr's manufacturing facilities in Europe. At the end of February 2021, it had 12,467 cancellable reservations.\nFisker Ocean. Source: Fisker\nFisker went public using a SPAC (Spartan Energy). The original combination with SPAQ in October 2020 was valued at $2.9 billion with a cash investment of approximately $1 billion. The stock currently trades at approximately $21 per share, after reaching a high of $28.50, from the original price of $10, which is a market cap of $4.6 billion. Fisker projects $3.3 billion in revenue in 2023. It had almost $1 billion in cash at the end of 2020 and expected to use almost half of this in 2021: $250 million on operating expenses and $250 million in capital investments. If the Ocean is delayed into 2023, Fisker risks missing its revenue objective and will potentially need additional cash to complete development and launch.\nFaraday Future (PSAC)\nFaraday Future was originally established in May 2014 by Chinese businessman Jia Yueting. It is headquartered in Los Angeles and has offices in Silicon Valley, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu. Faraday Future also had a turbulent history. In 2016, it struggled financially, and in 2017 some key executives departed over a dispute about financial issues. They later founded Canoo.\nIn December 2018 the company announced layoffs due to a cash crunch and financial troubles. The company's founder Jia Yueting filed for personal bankruptcy in the United States' federal court in Delaware on October 14, 2019. Following Jia's personal bankruptcy, he decided to step down from his role as CEO of Faraday Future in order to assume a new position as the Chief Product and User Officer. He was replaced as CEO by Carsten Breitfeld, the former CEO at rival electric vehicle startup Byton.\nSomehow, Faraday was able to raise $2.3 billion in private funding over 5 rounds from a variety of investors. In early 2018, it received $1.5 billion in funding from an undisclosed investor from Hong Kong.\nFaraday's flagship product offering will be the FF 91, featuring 1,050 HP, 0-60 mph in less than 2.4 seconds, zero gravity seats with the largest 60-degree reclining angles, and a user experience designed to create a mobile, connected, and luxurious living space. The FF 91 is targeted to launch in 2022.\nFF 91. Source: Faraday Future\nIts strategic partners include one of China's top three OEMs and a critical Chinese city, which the company believes will help establish its presence in the Chinese vehicle market.\nFaraday Future plans several cars based on its Variable Platform Architecture. FF 91 is the first production vehicle and flagship model. Pricing will range between $120,000 and upwards of $200,000, which places it against formidable opponents. Faraday Future is already looking forward to expanding its range with a pair of smaller models named FF 81 and FF 71. The FF 81 is planned to be priced at $75,000 to 95,000 with a 2023 release. The FF 71 is planned to be priced at $45,000 to $65,000 with a planned release of 2024.\nThe Primary Manufacturing Facility for FF 91 is in Hanford, CA with contract manufacturing for future models in Gunsan, South Korea.\nFaraday Future is planning high-Level automation with a Level-3 capable system using a redundant safety architecture based on NVIDIA Xavier System-on-a-chip. It will be capable of highway auto-drive and hardware ready for advanced auto-drive. It is targeting full autonomous valet parking & summon in any parking lot or structure. Eventually, it expects full auto-drive, including full 360˚ sensor coverage for advanced auto-drive & auto-park features.\nIn January 2021, Faraday Future announced that the company would go public through a reverse merger with the special purpose acquisition company Property Solutions Acquisition Corp. (PSAC). The combined company will be valued at $3.4 billion. Faraday Future is expected to set up contract manufacturing operations in China through their partnership with Geely. Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn is also expected to serve as an additional strategic partner.\nFaraday Future projects $10.5 billion in revenue in 2024 and $21.5 billion in 2025. Revenue is expected to start in 2022 with the delivery of 2,400 vehicles for $504 million. Most likely these projections could prove to be optimistic. At a current stock price of approximately $12.80, it has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nLordstown Motors (RIDE)\nLordstown Motors based in Lordstown, Ohio, was originally founded in 2018 by Steve Burns, the former CEO of Workhorse Group. The company licensed technology from Workhorse in return for royalties and a 10% ownership. Lordstown is named after the famous GM Lordstown manufacturing plant, which it acquired in November 2019 in an unusual transaction. GM announced that it was closing the plant and was under a great deal of pressure for that decision. So, GM \"sold\" the plant to a company that was renamed Lordstown for an estimated $20 million that it loaned to the acquiring company. Subsequently, the sale was redefined to be part of a $75 million investment by GM, of which $50 million was an in-kind exchange for the plant.\nLordstown went public through the SPAC DiamondPeak Holdings Corp. in 2020. It currently has more than 400 employees.\nIts first product is the Lordstown Endurance, a full-sized EV pickup truck. Lordstown is positioning Endurance for the pickup fleet market segment. The expected price is $52,000+, and it claimed to have more than 100,000 pre-orders by January 2021. However, a recent research article published by a short seller claimed \"Our research has revealed that Lordstown's order book consists of fake or entirely non-binding orders, from customers that generally do not even have fleets of vehicles.\" Lordstown is disputing that article.\nIt believes the fleet pickup market segment is underserved with no current EV-focused competition. It estimates that the full-sized pick-up truck fleet market is 1.2 million vehicles per year in the U.S., but it's more fragmented than other truck fleets. Pickup \"fleets\" tend to be much smaller and local, so there may not be much of a market distinction for a small company buying several EV pickups from a traditional auto dealer. About half of the total U.S. pickup market is classified as fleet sales, meaning more than one.\nEven though Lordstown is targeting the commercial fleet market, it is a similar product to the Ford EV F-150. So I classify it in the consumer EV category. It is a class 2 vehicle. Lordstown also may enter the SUV market in the longer-term.\nThe Endurance will compete against future models from Rivian and Tesla, as well as Ford and GM in ICE pick-ups and their upcoming EV pick-ups. Ford plans on selling its EV F-150 in mid-2022. Initial production of the Endurance is expected in the second half of 2021, so it may have a short market advantage. Nevertheless, it forecasts selling 65,000 vehicles in 2023 and 107,000 in 2024. These estimates could be a large percentage of the EV pick-up market in those years.\nAt the SPAC merger, the implied valuation for Lordstown was $1.6 billion, including a $500 million PIPE and the $75 million by GM. Lordstown's financial projections appear to be aggressive. It projects to start shipping the Endurance in late 2021 with projected revenue in 2022 of $1.7 billion, increasing to $5.8 billion in 2024. Its stock price at approximately $13.60 values the company at a market cap of approximately $2.2 billion. The value of the company depends on the likelihood of achieving its projections.\nA fleet sales strategy makes sense for Lordstown since it would be too expensive to build a retail sales and service capability. However, it's not clear that this will become a distinct competitive advantage. Some small fleets may still prefer to buy their EV pickups from established local dealers with service capabilities.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nCanoo started as Evelozcity in 2017 and rebranded as Canoo in the spring of 2019. Canoo is a Los Angeles-based company that develops electric vehicles. It has over 350 employees. Canoo has designed a modular electric platform purpose-built to deliver maximum vehicle interior space, which is adaptable to support a wide range of vehicle applications for consumers and businesses. Canoo expects to launch its first consumer model in 2022, simply named the Canoo that will be available by subscription, followed shortly after by a multi-purpose delivery vehicle and a sports vehicle, each built off of the same underlying platform. Canoo went public using a SPAC (Hennessy Capital Acquisition) and now trades as GOEV.\nCanoo's all-electric skateboard-like platform is designed to support both consumer retail and commercial vehicle configurations. The EV leverages Canoo's flat skateboard architecture for a high level of usable interior space. Its commercial vehicle program, expected in 2023, addresses a projected $50B+ last-mile delivery market with an EV platform that maximizes cargo volume.\nHyundai Motor Group said it would jointly develop an electric vehicle platform with the company.\nCanoo's platform strategy is interesting. It could be used as an EV platform for custom fleets of delivery vehicles. It has no AV development, but it claims to be \"AV Ready\" which could be useful for AV companies wanting to build custom AV delivery fleets.\nIts all-electric multi-purpose delivery vehicle is expected to be priced starting at approximately $33,000. It is based on Canoo's proprietary electric platform and will be offered in two initial size variants, with others to follow. Limited availability will begin in 2022, with scaled production and launch planned for 2023. Customers can pre-order the multi-purpose delivery vehicle for a refundable deposit of $100 per vehicle\nIt plans to offer two multi-purpose delivery vehicles: the MPDV1 and the larger MPDV2. The first has a 200-foot cargo volume and a range of 130-200 miles. It offers more capacity than today's ICE delivery vehicles at an affordable price with urban mobility enabled by a space-efficient footprint. The vehicle is also designed to fit within many height-restricted areas like parking garages.\nThe MPDV2 has a cargo volume of 450 feet and a range of 90-190 miles. Its roof and step-in height enable individuals to easily walk-in the vehicle and accommodate a standing position while inside.\nThe original SPAC transaction provided approximately $600 million, with a pro forma equity value of approximately $2.4 billion. Like other SPAC mergers, its stock price has fluctuated. It currently trades at about $15.90 per share for a market cap of approximately $3.7 billion. Canoo projects $2.0 billion in revenue in 2025 from about $500 million in engineering services, $1.2 billion from its consumer vehicle subscriptions, and the remainder from its commercial program. Canoo expects revenue of more than $300 million in 2022 after the launch of its lifestyle consumer vehicle.\nSince its first products are aimed at consumers, as is most of its forecasted 2025 revenue, I categorize it primarily as a consumer EV company. However, I think the design of that Canoo vehicle may not attract enough customers. More importantly, its subscription service way of selling its EV to consumers is risky. I think it has more potential in the commercial market, however, a dual strategy (consumer and commercial) is challenging. I like its skateboard platform design and that could prove to be a competitive advantage.\nRivian\nAlthough not yet public, I include Rivian because it has plans for an IPO as soon as Sept 2021, although it could slip into 2022. There are rumors that the company is targeting a market valuation of approximately $50B. Rivian has already raised more than $8 billion to date from Amazon, Ford, T. Rowe Price, and others.\nRivian has developed and vertically integrated a connected electric platform that can be flexibly applied to a range of applications, including the company's adventure products, as well as B2B products such as the Amazon last-mile delivery vans. The company's initial products, the R1T and R1S, provide a combination of performance, off-road capability, and utility. These vehicles will be produced at Rivian's manufacturing plant in Normal, Ill., with customer deliveries expected to begin in summer 2021. The launch of the R1S three-row electric SUV will follow in August.\nAdditional lower-priced models are being planned. The expected R2 series would include at least two smaller electric vehicles to coincide with the smaller platform, then another platform for R3.\nCommercial Delivery EV Companies\nEV truck companies differ based on the type of truck they are developing. The technology and markets are very different, so I separate them into two categories. The first category includes commercial delivery vehicles.\nCompanies making EV delivery vehicles have some major advantages that could make them good investments. First, delivery vehicles typically travel less than 250 miles during a day, so they can be conveniently recharged overnight. Secondly, they are typically sold in large quantities to fleets. This means that building a retail sales infrastructure is not necessary. It only requires a small salesforce. In addition, maintenance can also be provided at the fleet's operational center, so not as many service centers are required.\nThe disadvantage in this market is that there are a relatively small number of customers that buy in large volumes, so if the EV manufacturer can't get enough large customers, they may not be able to stay in business. GM estimates the combined market opportunity for parcel and food delivery, as well as reverse logistics, in the U.S. will be more than $850 billion by 2025.\nThe commercial market is expected to be a major growth area for EVs. Other start-up automakers like Rivian as well as legacy automakers such as Ford, Daimler, and GM have announced plans to enter the segment. GM recently announced its BrightDrop ecosystem for commercial customers that includes an all-new electric delivery van, the EV600 available by the end of 2021, as well as an integrated autonomous pallet and related services.\nThis group of EV companies focuses primarily on commercial delivery. In general, these are in the light-duty trucks category, although it also includes some medium-duty trucks. This generally includes the following commercial truck classes:\n\nClass 1: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 0-6,000 pounds or 0-2,722 kilograms.\nClass 2: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 6,001-10,000 pounds or 2,722-4,536 kilograms.1\nClass 3: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 10,001-14,000 pounds or 4,536-6,350 kilograms.\n\nIt can also include somewhat larger medium-duty EV delivery trucks:\n\nClass 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.\nClass 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.\n\nEV delivery trucks also have an advantage over ICE vehicles because they can have a greater delivery storage space. Smaller buses and transit vehicles are also included in this category.\nLast-mile package delivery is not an immediate-term autonomous vehicle opportunity because it requires a delivery person to be on the truck anyway.\nWorkhorse Group (WKHS)\nWorkhorse has been a public company for ten years. Originally AMP Electric Vehicles, it was established in 2007 as a developmental-stage vehicle electrification company, focusing on conversions. AMP Electric Vehicles went public in 2010 trading on the OTC market under the AMPD symbol. When the economic benefits of conversion became less certain, it pivoted away from passenger vehicles and began to focus on electrifying commercial vehicles. AMP acquired the Workhorse brand and the Workhorse custom chassis assembly plant in Union City. In March of 2013, AMP formally changed its name to Workhorse Group Incorporated.\nThe Company designs and builds a last-mile delivery electric vehicle. The C-Series EVs cover the larger size of commercial delivery vehicles in Classes 3-5. As part of its solutions, it also develops cloud-based, real-time telematics performance monitoring systems. It sells its vehicles to fleet customers directly and through its primary distributor, Ryder Systems. It is currently focused on bringing the C-Series electric delivery truck to market and fulfilling the existing backlog of orders.\nThe C-Series looks like a viable EV replacement for the 350,000 last-mile delivery vehicles sold in the U.S. annually. It recently announced an increased driving range from 100 miles to 160, which should open more market opportunities. It has a viable short-term go-to-market strategy selling fleets to delivery companies. It currently has test vehicles with UPS, DHL, FedEx, Amazon, and Walmart.\nWorkhorse recently lost out on the United States Postal Services Next Generation Delivery Vehicle project, however, it is in the process of challenging this decision. Additionally, its investment in Lordstown also provides an indirect investment opportunity. On November 7, 2019, the Company entered a transaction with Lordstown Motors to grant LMC a perpetual and worldwide license to certain intellectual property relating to its W-15 electric pickup truck platform and related technology in exchange for royalties, equity interest (approximately 10%) in LMC, and other considerations. This was a $320 million asset for Workhorse at the end of 2020.\nWorkhorse received a significant increase in orders in Q4/2020 but built just seven trucks in the fourth quarter due to production systems and supply chain issues. Workhorse plans to continue to take it slow, striving to build three of its composite-body battery-electric trucks a day in March with a plan to reach 10 trucks a day by the end of June. This makes its original 2021 goal of producing 1,800 trucks unlikely. It partnered with Hitachi and Hitachi Capital America (\"HCA\") to improve the Company's manufacturing, operational, and supply chain capabilities as well as to develop a national dealer network to support Workhorse's sales with vehicle financing options for both dealers and customers.\nWorkhorse has a market cap of approximately $1.9 billion. While Workhorse had ongoing revenue, unlike many other new EV companies, its revenue is still insignificant. It had a revenue of $1.4 million in 2020 and $377,000 in 2019. It has a backlog of over 8,000 vehicles but doesn't expect to be able to build many of those in 2021. It raised $270 million in capital over several financings, providing the Company with additional capital to build its backlog. It had cash of $215 million as of March 1, 2021. Because Workhorse is a traditional public company, it hasn't made long-term financial projections like SPAC-based companies.\nElectric Last Mile (FIII)\nElectric Last Mile, based in Troy Michigan, was founded by Jason Luo, former CEO of Ford China before it was acquired by China's Ningbo Joyson Electronic for $920 million in 2016, including James Taylor, former CEO of GM's Hummer brand and former CEO of electric car maker Karma Automotive. Taylor serves as the company's top executive with Luo as the company's chairman.\nThe company plans to launch a small electric delivery van (class 1-2), called the UD-1, in the third quarter of 2021, and then introduce an Urban Utility vehicle (Class 2-3) in 2022. These are expected to compete with Workhorse, Rivian, Canoo, as well as the Ford eTransit and the GMC BV1, none of which is expected to be a Class 1 vehicle.\nThe company says it has 30,000 preorders for its van, representing more than $1 billion in sales. Electric Last Miles vehicles will be based on Sokon's commercial van made in China through a joint venture with Dongfeng Automobile Co Ltd. in order to accelerate development time.\nElectric Last Mile (ELM) is expected to manufacture the vans in a former General Motors Co. Hummer plant in Mishawaka, Ind., that the company is acquiring from China's Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co. Ltd. The plant has the capacity to produce 100,000 vehicles annually with plans to build approximately 4,000 UD-1 vans by the end of 2021. The UD-1 has a starting price of $32,500 and a range of 150 miles. The battery for the vehicle is expected to be supplied by the Chinese battery company CATL.\nELM believes that it has a competitive advantage because its first vehicle, the ELM Urban Delivery, is scheduled to be available in 2021. It is based on a proven, existing platform developed and sold by Sokon Group in the Asian market, where there are 30,000 of these electric delivery vehicles driving 1.5 million miles every day. At the close of the business combination, ELM will be an independent, U.S. company producing electric vehicles in the U.S. with Sokon Group providing access to its know-how, parts supply, and field and service data.\nELM expects that the Urban Delivery vehicle will be the first electric delivery vehicle coming to market in the class 1 category (GVW of 6,000 lbs or less) in the U.S. It will also have 35% more carrying volume compared to similar ICE delivery vehicles, a critical part of the value proposition. It also anticipates that its price and greater carrying volume will allow it to take market share from the class 2 category of vehicles as well.\nIts crossover product portfolio strategy targets commercial delivery vehicles spanning from class 1 to class 3, which represents over 80% of the last mile market.\nELM anticipates $122 million in revenue in 2021, rapidly increasing to $3 billion in 2025. The price of FIII stock increased immediately following its announcement with Electric Last Mile, rising more than 40% to $14.50, but now it has dropped closer to the original deal price to $10.25 for a market cap of approximately $1.5 billion.\nGreenPower Motor Company (GP)\nGreenPower Motor Company Inc. is a Canadian battery-electric bus manufacturer with multiple models of high- and low-floor vehicles, including transit buses, school buses, and shuttles. GreenPower offers commercial vehicles for delivery, public transit, schools, vanpooling, micro-transit, shuttles, and is developing a capability of autonomous operation. It went public on August 28, 2020.\nIn 2014 GreenPower launched its first purpose-built, battery-electric bus, the EV350, 40-foot transit bus. GreenPower received its first order in 2017 for ten EV350s from the City of Porterville, California.\nGreenPower's electric buses are purpose-built and designed to be all-electric, allowing it to put the battery and propulsion system in optimized locations that provide weight and structural advantages. Its primary EV is the EV Star with more than 120 vehicles delivered. It comes in several variations:\n\nEV Star - Up to 19 passengers\nEV Star Plus - Up to 24 passengers\nEV Star ADA - Passenger and curbside lift for ADA\nEV Star Cargo - 5,000 pounds of load\nEV Star Cargo Plus - 570 cubic feet of cargo space.\n\nIts EV school bus seats up to 90 students and has a range of up to 150 miles.\nGreenPower had revenue of $13.5 million in 2020 It has about $21 million in cash. It's an interesting alternative since it is already shipping EVs, has revenue, and also has a lower market cap of less than $1 billion. Since it did a traditional IPO, it hasn't published longer-term financial forecasts.\nArrival (CIIC)\nArrival was founded in 2015 in London to make a variety of commercial electric vehicles. It has approximately 1,200 employees across 11 cities in 8 countries. In November 2020, Arrival and the SPAC CIIG entered into a business combination agreement with an implied valuation of $5.39 billion.\nArrival plans on releasing four commercial EVs over the next few years.\n\nQ4/2021: An electric bus for 8-125 passengers and a range of 240-400km\nQ3/2022: An electric delivery van with a payload of 975-2,000kg and a range of 150-340km\n2022: A larger electric van with a payload of 4,000 kg and a range of 190-400km\n2023: a small vehicle platform with a range of 100-300km.\n\nThis mix provides a nice diversified portfolio of EVs. Arrival claims to have received orders from UPS for 10,000 vans. It plans a unique flexible manufacturing approach using micro-factories with each projected to manufacture 10,000 vans per year. All of its vehicles use a modular skateboard electric platform.\nArrival ambitiously projects $14.1 billion in revenue in 2024. Half of that revenue is expected from delivery vans, 22% from buses, and the rest from the large van and its small vehicle platform. With CIIC's stock price at $24.80 per share, Arrival's current market cap is relatively high at approximately $15.0 billion. Justifying its market cap depends on its ability to release, sell, and produce its four commercial EVs.\nProterra (ACTC)\nProterra is a commercial electric vehicle company with over a decade of production experience. The Company has designed an end-to-end, flexible technology platform that claims to deliver higher performance and a low total cost of ownership to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end customers.\nProterra, Inc., was originally founded in Golden, Colorado, by Dale Hill in 2004. Later the company wanted to take the lead in creating zero-emission, U.S.-based transit buses. In 2010 it moved its manufacturing plant from Golden, Colorado to Greenville, South Carolina. In 2015, Proterra was awarded a $3 million grant from the California Energy Commission to fund the design, development, and construction of the company's battery-electric transit bus manufacturing line in the City of Industry, California. It moved its headquarters from Greenville, South Carolina, to Burlingame, California, in October 2015. Proterra raised more than $600 million in funding.\nIt is going public through the SPAC ArcLight (ACTC) with a pro forma valuation of $1.6 billion. Upon completion of the transaction, Proterra expects to have up to $825 million in cash to fund growth initiatives, including R&D and the expansion of its next-generation battery program.\nProterra has three complementary businesses:\n\nProterra Powered: Delivering battery systems and electrification solutions to commercial vehicle manufacturers\nProterra Transit:Providing an electric transit bus OEMs\nProterra Energy:Offering turnkey charging and energy management solutions.\n\nThe company's battery systems have been proven in more than 16 million service miles driven by its fleet of transit vehicles and validated through partnerships with commercial vehicle OEMs. Proterra has produced and delivered more than 300 megawatt-hours of battery systems, more than 550 heavy-duty electric transit buses, and installed 54 megawatts of charging systems.\nProterra expected $193 million of revenue in 2020, with an estimated $750 million in existing orders and backlog. It projects $2.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with about 1/3 coming from its Transit business, and 2/3 From Powered & Energy. At ACTC's current stock price of $17.85, Proterra has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nRivian\nRivian (see earlier description in consumer retail) will also compete in the commercial delivery market. It has been working with Amazon (a major investor) to build large electric delivery vans for Prime. Developed specifically for Amazon, a small fleet of Prime vans is on the road now, testing deliveries to customers and gathering feedback. In late fall, it could grow to a large fleet as Rivian ramps up the volume.\nThe EV range of 150 miles is tailored to Amazon's use cycle to optimize the size, weight, and cost of the commercial vehicle. Rivian has three sizes of batteries, but Amazon is starting with just one of them.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nSee the previous summary under consumer retail EV.\nMedium and Long-Haul Trucking EV Companies\nCompanies developing medium- and long-haul EV trucks face a more difficult challenge with battery range. These trucks haul much more weight than commercial delivery vehicles and because they are designed for long distances, they can't stop every 200-300 miles for recharging.\nFor this reason, many of these companies are using unique hybrid technologies for their trucks. The EV trucks in this category are primarily heavy-duty but also include some medium-duty trucks and specialty vehicles. A couple of the companies focus on retrofitting trucks to be electric.\nMedium-Duty Trucks\nThe medium-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 4, 5, and 6:\n\nClass 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.\nClass 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.\nClass 6: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 19,501-26,000 pounds or 8,846-11,793 kilograms.1\n\nHeavy-Duty Trucks\nThe heavy-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 7 and 8:\n\nClass 7: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 26,001 to 33,000 pounds or 11,794-14,969 kilograms.\nClass 8: This class of trucks has a GVWR of greater than 33,001 pounds or 14,969 kilograms and includes all tractor-trailers.\n\nThe Tesla Semi is a battery vehicle planned for a range of 300 or 500 miles and a speed of 60 MPH with 80,000 lbs of cargo. Tesla plans to start shipping the Semi later this year when it expects to have sufficient cell volume to meet its needs with the production of its 4680 battery pack.\nNikola(NASDAQ:NKLA)\nNikola has been a very controversial company. Founded in 2015, it originally had two different strategies. Its primary strategy is to lease fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) Class-8 heavy trucks and provide the refueling infrastructure to corporate customers. Its second strategy was to develop the Badger EV truck using GM technology.\nNikola originally merged with a SPAC to go public, at an enterprise value of approximately $3.3 billion. On June 6th, 2020, its market cap jumped to more than $30 billion, then later it dropped because of problems with its originally planned deal with GM.\nNikola originally expected a deal with General Motors that included the production of the Nikola Badger EV pickup truck. The proposed arrangement was that GM would take a $2 billion equity stake in Nikola and in return would engineer and produce the Badger. In November 2020, GM and Nikola scrapped the original arrangement. Now it appears that GM will supply Nikola with only its Hydrotec hydrogen fuel-cell technology to integrate into the EV manufacturer's commercial class 7 and class 8 zero-emission semi-trucks. So, the Badger is probably dead.\nNikola now sees semi-trucks as the company's \"core business\" and fuel cells as an increasingly important segment of the semi-truck market thanks to their efficiency in weight and consumption. It expects to begin testing by the end of 2021.\nIt has received pre-orders from Anheuser-Busch and a few other companies, but it doesn't expect deliveries until 2023. Hydrogen fueling stations are key to its strategy, both providing a source of revenue and necessary fueling infrastructure for the trucks to operate, but they also cost a lot. In its March 2020 investor deck, Nikola said a single station capable of fueling 210 trucks a day would cost $16.6 million. Its initial planned network of 700 stations would cost roughly $11.6 billion.\nNikola was also accused of misrepresentation, and its executive chairman and founder stepped down.\nAt the time of the SPAC merger, it projected an optimistic forecast of more than $3 billion in revenue by 2024, with a net income of $145 million. Most of that revenue was expected to come from its Badger truck, which is no longer in the plans. Yet its market cap is still almost $6 billion.\nHyliion (HYLN)\nHyliion, founded in 2015 in Austin, went public in October 2020 through the SPAC Tortoise Acquisition Corp. (SHLL). In March 2019, automotive parts manufacturer Dana Inc. made an equity investment into Hyliion, and together they are manufacturing and marketing Class 8 EVs to Dana's customers, including Volvo, Navistar, and Peterbilt.\nHyliion's strategy is unique, and a very different strategy from Nikola. Essentially it generates electricity onboard the truck using compressed natural gas (CNG). This should be a benefit for longer-range trucking. Hyliion's Hypertruck concept involves an all-electric drivetrain utilizing Dana's electric motor, inverter, and axle technologies. The truck's batteries are fueled by onboard tanks of CNG. With some 700 CNG stations already operating nationwide, it believes that there no need to build out expensive superchargers or hydrogen infrastructure.\nKuwait-based logistics company, Agility, has already placed an order for 1,000 Hypertrucks with initial deliveries targeted in 2022. Combined with a fully electric drivetrain and a natural gas-powered onboard generator to recharge the battery, the Hypertruck ERX will provide more than 1,000 miles of range.\nHyliion will eventually compete with Nikola (FCEV) and the Tesla battery-based Semi, but it plans to have a longer range and lower operating costs. Its HyperTruck ERX is expected to be available in 2021. It also has a hybrid-electric truck.\nThe combination with SHLL had an estimated market cap of about $1.5 billion, with approximately $530 million going to the company, including a $325 million fully committed PIPE. At approximately $13.50 per share, its current market cap is approximately $2.2 billion, significantly down from its peak. Hyliion projects $2 billion in revenue in 2024, which it claims is only about 2% of the addressable market.\nXL Fleet (XL)\nXL Fleet is a 10-year old company that went public through the SPAC Pivotal. XL is different because it provides fleet electrification modifications for ICE trucks across a wide range of vehicle classes (class 2-5) and types. It has over 200 of the largest commercial and municipal fleets as customers, with more than 3,200 XL systems deployed and over 130 million miles driven by customers to date. XL's customer base includes FedEx, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Verizon, the City of Boston, Seattle Fire Department, Yale University, and Harvard University.\nXL's business model is essentially retrofitting existing trucks to be hybrids and then later expanding into fully electric truck conversions. It claims to be creating a fully integrated platform for this. It remains to be seen if the retrofitting business will continue to grow or will it diminish when more trucks are designed and manufactured with EV capabilities.\nUnlike some other EV companies that have no revenue yet because they are still developing products, XL is more of a small company doing low-volume retrofits. It had $7.2 million in revenue in 2019, $21 million in 2020, and estimates $76 million in 2021, but it forecasts $1.3 billion in revenue in 2024 in its investor presentation. It plans to do this by expanding its product line from hybrid to plug-in hybrid to fully electric across a broader range of trucks. It claims to have a $220 million sales pipeline for the next 12 months.\nShort-seller, Muddy Waters, claimed after talking to former XL Fleet employees, that it believed the company significantly exaggerated its order backlog, that the return on investment for the company's products was likely negative, and that it would not be able to compete with big car makers on electrification. The company thoroughly refuted these claims.\nThe original enterprise valuation was approximately $1.4 billion at a $10 share price for the merger. Its price jumped by about 35% but has since gone back down to $12.40 for a market cap of about $1.8 billion. Although XL Fleet has revenue and other EV companies don't, this may not be an advantage. It appears to be a small company for many years that has gone public at a high valuation with grand plans. The risks are in its ability to make a jump from $76 million in 2021 to $1.3 billion in 2024, as well as the question about retrofitting being replaced by new EV trucks by then.\nXos (NGAC)\nXos Trucks specializes in the field of manufacturing fully electric commercial vehicles. It features a software platform that is designed to accommodate an extensive variety of medium-duty bodies, wheelbase, and range requirements up to 200 miles. It was founded in 2016 and headquartered in North Hollywood, California. It received $20 million of investment in 2020 and now is going public through a merger with the SPAC ExtGen Acquisition Corporation (NGAC) at an estimated proforma value of $1.965 billion.\nIts focus is on medium- and heavy-duty last mile and return-to-base segments (class 5/6, class 6/7, and class 7/8) commercial fleets and specialty vehicles. Some vehicles are currently in production and in regular on-road operations with key fleet customers, and it claimed 6,000 unit orders in backlog.\nIts MD-platform is for classes 5-6 for pickup and delivery. Its HD X-Platform is an adaptable chassis for highway, vocational, and severe work conditions. Its market is for customers with highly predictable routes that allow for batteries designed for a more limited range. A significantly larger frame and smaller battery pack allow for reduced density.\nXos has a bundled all-in-one offering that allows fleets to access all the tools and services they need to go electric with a single point of contact at a fixed monthly expense.\nXos had $3 million in revenue in 2020 and estimates $14 million in 2021. However, it forecasts $5.2 billion in revenue in 2025. At the current stock price of $10.30, its market cap is approximately $2 billion, about the same as its original SPAC transaction.\nLion Electric (NGA)\nLion Electric is a Canadian company founded by Marc Bédard in 2008. Its focus is to be a leader in designing, developing, and manufacturing purpose-built urban electric vehicles; vehicles that are specifically designed as delivery trucks, refuse trucks, bucket trucks, moving trucks, school buses, and shuttle buses. It has over 300 all-electric vehicles on the road today.\nIn November 2020, it announced that it was going public through the SPAC NGA. The transaction had an estimated pro forma enterprise value of $1.5 billion.\nIt plans on seven new truck models and one new school bus, for a total of 15 all-electric vehicles, representing a full line-up from class 5 to class 8 electric trucks and a full line-up of electric school buses. Its vehicles are produced at its existing manufacturing plant, which has the capacity for the production of up to 2,500 vehicles per year. It intends to open a new plant in the U.S. capable of delivering over 20,000 Lion trucks and buses per year by 2022.\nIts all-electric class 6 and class 8 commercial urban trucks combine power, comfort, and modern technology. Custom-built chassis and cabin designed specifically for an all-electric heavy-duty vehicle. The LionC is an all-electric Type C school bus manufactured in North America. The body and chassis were specifically designed to deliver optimal performance. The LionM is an all-electric midi/minibus that meets paratransit and public transportation requirements. Created and designed specifically for the paratransit market, the is spacious and offers unique features that provide enhanced security and accessibility to the end-users.\nLion Electric had $29 million in revenue in 2020 and expects $204 million in 2021. It forecasts revenue to jump to $3.6 billion a few years later in 2024. Its current market cap is approximately $3.6 billion based on its current stock price of $18.33.\nLightning eMotors (GIK)\nLightning eMotors, formerly Lightning Systems, was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Loveland, Colorado. It provides fleet electrification for familiar commercial vehicle platforms by retrofitting them with its electric powertrains. Lightning eMotors produces electric fleet medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including delivery trucks, shuttle buses, passenger vans, ambulances, bucket trucks, chassis-cab models, and city transit buses. It focuses on urban commercial zero-emission vehicles with a full range of class 3 through class 7 battery-electric and fuel-cell electric vehicles.\nLighting eMotors helps commercial fleets achieve their sustainability goals by offering zero-emission battery-electric vans, trucks, and buses based on familiar, proven vehicles from manufacturers such as Ford and GM. It works with customers, to help them identify their unique commercial electric vehicle, charging, and grant support needs.\nThe Lightning products include integrated all-electric powertrains for the Ford Transit 350HD passenger and cargo vans, Ford E-450 shuttle bus and cutaway models, Ford F-59 step/food van, Ford F-550 cargo trucks and buses, Chevrolet 6500XD Low Cab Forward model, and 30-foot, 35-foot, and 40-foot transit buses.\nLightning has 120 vehicles on the road, and 1,500 vehicles already on order from customers. In addition to making vehicles and powertrains, Lightning also provides a full suite of charging solutions for customers.\nThe deal with GIK has an enterprise value of $650 million, although there is also an Earnout of 20.0% of total pro forma shares outstanding to Lightning eMotors shareholders if the stock crosses certain price thresholds.\nAt the current price, of $11.73, GIK has a market cap of approximately $1 billion, a little more than the original transaction valuation. Similar to XL Fleet, Lightning has the risk that retrofitting may only be an interim business opportunity until more EV trucks are produced.\nPublic Chinese EV Companies\nChina will be the biggest EV market opportunity, and EV start-ups may do better there because there isn't as much entrenched competition from domestic auto companies. China is already the largest EV market in the world, with almost a million EVs sold in 2019. Its EV market represents almost half of the global EV sales volume and is much larger than the U.S. market.\nThe Chinese government has ambitions to become a global leader in new energy vehicles. Soon after the coronavirus outbreak subsided within the country, Chinese authorities announced new policies to support the auto and electric vehicle industries.\nThese Chinese companies are traded through American depository shares (ADS) that contain certain risks. There are financial reporting and transparency risks with these companies, and on top of that, the newer companies are being classified as \"emerging growth\" companies that are already exempt from certain transparency requirements set out in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Like the previous EV stock, these stocks have also been very volatile.\nIn addition to legacy auto manufacturers like BYD, there are also three Chinese EV companies that are publicly traded through American depositary shares.\nBYD Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:BYDDY)\nBYD, which means build your dreams, is the automotive subsidiary of the Chinese multinational BYD Co Ltd. It was founded in January 2003, following BYD Company's acquisition of Tsinchuan Automobile Company. The company produces automobiles, buses, electric bicycles, forklifts, rechargeable batteries, and trucks. The current model range of automobiles includes electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and petrol-engined vehicles. Thirteen years ago, on the advice of his famously skeptical lieutenant, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett made a $232 million investment in BYD, a relatively unknown Chinese car company.\nBy parlaying BYD's rechargeable battery technology into a fast-growing carmaking operation, it gained a foothold in the fledgling electric vehicle market, building longer-lasting batteries and cheaper vehicles than American and Japanese manufacturers were managing to do at the time. In BYD, Buffett and Munger believed they had found a company with a shot at one day becoming the largest player in a global automobile market that was inevitably going electric.\nBYD's start to 2021 was strong with 19,871 plug-in electric cars sold in January in China, including hybrid plug-ins. That was a big increase over 2020 but not as much as 2019.\nLI Auto (LI)\nLixiang, formerly known as Chehejia (\"Car and Home\"), was founded in 2015 and went public in the U.S. on July 30th, 2020. It is a Beijing-based electric-vehicle startup with vertically integrated manufacturing. It designs, researches, manufactures, sells, and offers services featuring a few models of electric vehicles.\nThe company's SUVs are hybrids of a sort. They use electric motors (one on the front axle and one on the rear), but those motors are powered by a combination of a 40.5kWh battery packanda 1.2-liter turbocharged engine paired to a 45-liter fuel tank and a 100kW electric generator, which generates power for the battery pack in real-time. The idea is that the car can be driven for about 100 miles on battery power alone, but it has a total range of nearly 500 miles when leveraging the combustion engine generator.\nThe Company's primary product is an SUV under its brand Li ONE. It also sells peripheral products and provides related services, such as charging stalls, vehicle internet connection services, and extended lifetime warranties. Li Auto is looking to sell a variety of SUVs built on its hybrid technology that range from around $21,000 to about $70,000. The company started shipping its first model in late 2019. It's a midsize SUV is well-appointed and has lots of touchscreens and technology. A full-size premium version is planned for release in 2022.\nDeliveries of Li ONEs were 14,464 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a 67.0% quarter-over-quarter increase and setting a new quarterly record. Deliveries for the full year 2020 reached 32,624 vehicles. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $635 million.\nLI auto went public on July 30th, 2020, raising $1.1 billion at an initial price of $15.50 per share but quickly reached almost $24. It is currently valued at approximately $37 billion at a price of approximately $25.72 per share.\nXPeng (XPEV)\nXiaopeng (XPeng) Motors is a Chinese electric vehicle and technology company that designs and manufactures smart cars. It was founded in 2015 and went public on August 27, 2020, using American depository shares, raising about $1 billion. To date, it has raised about $2.6 billion.\nXPeng aims its EVs at technology-savvy middle-class Chinese consumers, with prices ranging from $22,000 to $45,000 after government subsidies. In some ways, it is a Tesla knock-off at a much lower price. XPeng started production of the G3 in November 2018, and as of July 31, 2020, delivered 18,741. It started production of the P7 and began delivery in May 2020, and as of July 31, 2020, it had delivered 1,966 EVs. The P7 has a range of more than 400 miles. It plans to launch a third Smart EV, a sedan, in 2021. The G3 was among the top-three best-selling electric SUVs in China in 2019.\nXPeng is interesting because it has a platform strategy and is moving aggressively into autonomous driving. It uses a platform strategy to expand product offerings by launching one Smart EV model each year to broaden the addressable market. It builds new models on two highly flexible Smart EV platforms, called David and Edward, respectively. The David platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,600 millimeters to 2,800 millimeters, and the Edward platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,800 millimeters to 3,100 millimeters. It also adopted a platform approach for software systems.\nXPeng claims to be developing an autonomous driving capability for its EVs. The P7 is the first production vehicle to feature the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Xavier system-on-a-chip (SoC) autonomous driving platform. The company's Smart Electric Platform Architecture (SEPA) runs on 2 chips - NVIDIA for the XPILOT and Qualcomm's Snapdragon™ 820A for intelligent services and infotainment, including cameras inside and outside, radars, HD-map, and ultrasonic sensors. Like Tesla, it claims it can create sufficiently-autonomous driving without lidar.\nTo enhance brand recognition and allow more people to experience its Smart EVs, it deployed a small number of Smart EVs in a ride-hailing service in Guangzhou on a trial basis, but it has no current plan to scale up a ride-hailing service.\nXpeng sees first-quarter 2021 deliveries rising 450% year-over-year to 12,500 vehicles. Revenues are expected to increase 533% from a year ago. The company didn't provide bottom-line estimates for the quarter, but will likely post another net loss as it ramps up manufacturing, invests in R&D, and builds out a new manufacturing plant set to open in 2022.\nXpeng reported selling 12,964 vehicles in Q4 2020, up 303% from a year ago. It delivered a total of 27,041 vehicles in 2020, up 112%. It makes the P7 sedan, a rival to the made-in-China Tesla Model 3, and the small G3 SUV.\nThe stock opened on August 27, 2020 at a price of $15 and a valuation of $11 billion, but its stock jumped more than 40% shortly after. Its current valuation is about $35 billion at a stock price of approximately $36.13 per share. It had about $300 million in revenue in 2019 with a loss of about $500 million.\nNio (NIO)\nUnlike previous companies, Nio has been a public company for some time. It originally went public in the U.S. back in September of 2018, selling IPO shares at $6.26 and raising $1 billion.\nNio's IPO was far from smooth. After going public at $6.26 per share, it traded down to nearly $1. Then in the middle of the coronavirus outbreak, Nio received a much-needed investment of $1 billion from investors, including state-backed entities.\nNio designs, jointly manufactures, and sells smart and connected premium electric vehicles, attempting to develop next-generation technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving, and artificial intelligence. Joint manufacturing means that it uses a state-owned contract manufacturer to build its cars.\nNio plans to provide customers with comprehensive, convenient, and innovative charging solutions and other user-centric services. It began deliveries of the ES8, a 7-seater high-performance premium electric SUV in China in June 2018, and its variant, the six-seater ES8, in March 2019. Nio officially launched the ES6, a 5-seater high-performance premium electric SUV, in December 2018 and began deliveries in June 2019. It officially launched the EC6, a 5-seater smart premium electric Coupe SUV, in December 2019 with deliveries in 2020.\nNio sold 17,353 EVs in Q4/2020 and 43,728 for the year. It warned a shortage in chips and batteries will force a production slowdown to 7,500 a month in Q2 from 10,000 vehicles a month in February.\nNio currently trades at more than $43 per share, including a big jump recently, for a valuation of approximately $48 billion. It had revenue of $2.3 billion in 2019 for a loss of $3.8 billion.\nSummary\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this should provide exciting new investment opportunities. However, the investment terrain is complex. There are dozens of new start-ups where the public can now invest that were previously exclusively venture capital investment opportunities. Many of these are following different roads to success. There are legacy auto manufacturers that could prosper or get destroyed in this transition. There are some exciting new EV company opportunities in China. And then there is Tesla.\nThis EV roadmap is intended to help investors explore different roads to investment by explaining the basic strategies for these EV companies. These roads can have different opportunities and risks, and the roadmap helps to frame these. Above all, valuation is an overriding risk that is highlighted throughout this article.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":353518914,"gmtCreate":1616507469338,"gmtModify":1704795030472,"author":{"id":"3575859183800572","authorId":"3575859183800572","name":"w8w8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a305fe39d1c227693a64cc331afda1a","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575859183800572","authorIdStr":"3575859183800572"},"htmlText":"Such a long post news zzzzz","listText":"Such a long post news zzzzz","text":"Such a long post news zzzzz","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353518914","repostId":1196402560,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196402560","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616134696,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196402560?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-19 14:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"New Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196402560","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, an","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>It's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.</li>\n <li>Last October, I wrote a popular article providing a roadmap for investing in electric vehicles, but since then, so much has changed: new entrants, new strategies, fluctuating valuations, etc.</li>\n <li>So, I updated and greatly expanded the previous EV investment roadmap.</li>\n <li>This update includes a deeper look at valuations for 23 EV companies with revenue projections, when available.</li>\n <li>It also classifies these EV companies into their primary market categories and summarizes their different strategies.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb96acc615cba9c7842860658c019ab1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\">Photo by Sven Loeffler/iStock via Getty Images\nMy article&nbsp;Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap&nbsp;published five months ago, was popular, and some followers have requested an update. Many new EV companies entered the market, most of them through SPACs. Valuations fluctuated wildly, and there has been a great deal of publicity around these companies.\nThis new updated EV investment roadmap is greatly expanded. In addition to updating the strategies and progress of companies previously discussed, I expanded the number of companies covered. This article also groups EV companies into their primary markets, enabling better comparisons and evaluation of market opportunities. In addition, it includes a comparative valuation chart showing every company's market cap with a comparison to projected revenue, where possible. This takes advantage (good or bad) of looking at the long-term revenue forecasts provided in SPAC mergers that public companies can't make.\nIn addition to the EV manufacturers discussed here, there are also EV investment opportunities in charging station companies, battery manufacturers, and battery materials companies. These were covered in the original roadmap and may also be updated in a later article.\nApproximately 2 million EVs were sold in 2019, and although the number declined along with all auto sales in 2020, it is forecasted to increase in 2021 and reach 8-10 million by 2025. Some forecast that EV sales will be greater than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2030, or even earlier. The automobile market appears to be moving toward a historical transformation, and exceptional investment gains can be made by anticipating new emerging industries and investing in the eventual winners of those new industries. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)are obvious examples. Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to create a new emerging industry.\nThere are also significant risks. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to be released in the next three years, which will drive rapid growth in EV sales. However, the expected sales from these new models, as well as the increasing expectations from Tesla, most likely exceed the total projected market. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the companies covered here won't exist five years from now. It reminds me of the internet bubble of the late 1990s when scores of internet-based companies went public with little or no revenue. Almost all of these failed within three years -- however, a couple, including Amazon, went on to enormous success.\nEVs provide a major new investment opportunity with high risks. To succeed, you need to have a clear EV investment roadmap.\nSo, how can you invest in this new emerging market? The EV landscape is complex and investment opportunities are varied. While Tesla is the unquestioned leader in EVs, some consider it overvalued and unlikely to show exceptional returns to new investors. The current U.S. legacy automakers are committed to introducing many new EVs in the next few years, and they have some entrenched advantages with volume manufacturing capabilities, a dealer infrastructure, and loyal customers. There are exciting new EV start-ups in the U.S. that have come public this year, mostly through Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), and there are several interesting publicly traded Chinese EV manufacturers.\nThis new roadmap for EV investment classifies companies into three primary markets segments:\n<ul>\n <li>TheConsumer Retailsegment includes EVs sold to consumers individually, such as SUVs, pickup trucks, sedans, etc.</li>\n <li>TheCommercial Deliverysegment includes local delivery EV vans and trucks sold to fleets.</li>\n <li>TheMedium- and Long-Haul Truckingsegment includes heavier Class 4 - Class 8 trucks, as well as special industrial vehicles.</li>\n</ul>\nIn addition, it categorizesLegacy ManufacturersandChinese EV Companies. This enables investors to evaluate investment opportunities by considering unique opportunities within each market segment.\nThere is an enormous amount of investment optimism for EVs, and retail investors have been aggressively buying into EV stocks with seemingly no regard for valuation. Then there is the additional challenge of valuing companies with no revenue, especially those coming public through SPACs. So, valuation is an important investment consideration.\nSo let's start by looking at an overview of comparative EV valuations.\nEV Investment Valuation Overview\nThe following chart summarizes valuations for 23 EV companies, including several legacy companies. For SPACs, market cap estimates are computed using the pro forma number of shares at closing, otherwise using the valuation of the SPAC prior to closing drastically underestimates the valuation, which may be misleading to novice investors. Price/Sales ratios (market cap divided by revenue) are used to compare valuations. As a benchmark, current P/S ratios vary. For example, auto and truck companies have a ratio of 2.7X. Software companies have the highest ratios of over 10X.\nIn the chart, companies that currently have revenue show current P/S ratios. Where projections are available, projected P/S ratios are computed. A note of caution, however. Many of the EV companies came public through SPACs and published their projections (which public companies cannot do), and many of these are likely to prove unrealistic.\nAll of the longer-term revenue projections come from the company (C) forecasts with a SPAC. Some of these may turn out to be accurate, not many are most likely unrealistic. Some, like Lucid, Faraday, and Arrival forecast hitting more than $10 billion in revenue in a few years, when it took Tesla more than 10. Things are different now and they might achieve these, but they could also find that it will take longer to complete development, ramp up production, and create enough customer demand. Many companies may also find that there will be significant capital requirements to achieve this type of growth, and shareholders will be diluted.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc360dfa7de01516b7f68d5962cf3017\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"883\">\nTesla, the \"gold standard\" in EVs, has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, which many people believe is overvalued. Its market cap is approximately 20X 2020 revenue and 10X estimated 2022 revenue.\nTesla (TSLA)\nIn the U.S., and to a lesser extent in China, Tesla is the dominant EV provider. It has approximately 60% of the U.S. EV market and about 20% of the market in China. I own a Tesla and love it, but an investment in Tesla stock requires getting comfortable with its valuation. Tesla has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, although declining lately, which some consider still overvalued while others see upside potential.\nThe investment opportunity with Tesla is based on the expectation that it will continue to dominate the EV market, or at least maintain significant market share, despite much greater competition from the expected introduction of hundreds of new EV models in the next few years.\nThere is a great deal already published about Tesla, so I'll move on.\nLegacy Automakers\nSome people think that the legacy automakers will simply fade away. Historically, that was the case in some other industries, but it is not going to happen to most automakers. They are not standing still waiting to become obsolete. Most have aggressive strategies to replace ICE vehicles with EVs. GM plans to invest $27 billion and build and launch as many as 30 new EV models by 2025. Ford plans to invest $29 billion in EVs by 2025 and launch as many as 16 EVs in the next two years. Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY)has also committed billions to develop new EVs.\nThe competitive advantage that legacy automakers have in selling their new EVs is their dealer network. Will new EV customers prefer to continue going to their regular auto dealer to buy their new EV?\nAlmost all legacy automakers worldwide are developing and launching EVs including Volkswagen, Peugeot, Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi, Hyundai/Kia. Let's look a little more closely at GM and Ford as the leaders in the U.S.\nGeneral Motors (GM)\nGM has committed to introducing 20 new electric vehicles by 2023, including EVs across Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC, and Buick. It recently announced that it has already sold out the first-year production of its Hummer electric pickup. By mid-decade, it expects to sell a million EVs per year in its two largest markets: North America and China. As a reference point, Tesla reported deliveries of 367,500 vehicles globally in 2019.\nGM has a solid platform strategy for its EVs. It plans on building its EVs using five interchangeable drive units and three different motors from its Ultium Drive System platform. Ultium energy options range from 50 to 200 kWh, which could enable an estimated range of up to 400 miles. Most of its EVs will have 400-volt battery packs and up to 200 kW fast-charging capability while the truck platform will have 800-volt battery packs and 350 kW fast-charging capabilities.\nThe key building blocks of the Ultium battery system are large-scale, high-energy cells. Engineered in partnership with LG Energy Solutions, they use both advanced chemistry and a smart cell design that's optimized for a broad portfolio of EVs. GM engineers and scientists are actively researching and testing new elements in battery chemistry to lower costs and improve charge times. Ultium can contain either vertically- or horizontally-stacked cells to integrate into vehicle design: vertically for trucks, SUVs, and crossovers, or horizontally for cars and performance vehicles. As new chemistry is developed and becomes available, the battery management system could digitally update the modules.\nGM also has other EV opportunities with its BrightDrop commercial EV service and its Cruise subsidiary. BrightDrop will not just sell delivery EVs, it will provide an entire service platform for commercial delivery customers. Its set of electric delivery vehicles starts with the EV600 and includes the BrightDrop EP1, a pod-like electric pallet. SeeGeneral Motors' Aggressive EV/AV Strategies May Payoff Big.\nWith its highest stock price of $61.65, GM's current market cap is approximately $89 billion, increasing primarily because of its progress with EVs. This approximately 3X valuation in 2018, but still only 13% of Tesla.\nFord (F)\nFord is also investing heavily in EVs. It just introduced the Mustang Mach-E, a battery-powered crossover with sports car styling, and plans to introduce an all-electric version of its best-selling F-150 pickup later this year. Also, planned is an electric edition of the full-size Transit van, which has been popular in the commercial delivery market. Ford has confirmed plans to build a luxury Lincoln crossover on a battery-powered platform provided by Rivian. The automaker also plans to introduce two new midsize electric crossovers, one each for the Ford and Lincoln brands by 2023.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd8523e15bccc57790940d4218f7b94e\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"1080\">Mustang Mach-E. Source: Ford\nFord's market cap is approximately $51 billion, twice its previous market cap, and also increasing.\nConsumer Retail EV Companies\nThe consumer retail market has some unique characteristics for new EV companies. Sales are made individually, not in fleets. This diversifies the risk upon launch because only a sufficient number of customers need to be attracted to the new EV. A wave of popularity can provide terrific momentum.\nHowever, the lack of a dealer network can be an impediment. Selling EVs directly to consumers instead of through dealers is prohibited in most states. By law, auto manufacturers can't compete with franchised dealers. These are laws that go back many decades to protect dealers. This can be a major impediment for new companies without established independent dealer franchises. So, new AV companies. like Tesla, need to sell their vehicles online. Tesla has successfully done this, but it took a lot of work and time. Lack of a dealer network also creates impediments in service.\nIn addition, over the next 4-5 years, autonomous capabilities will be increasingly important to luxury vehicles. This may prove to be a challenge to start-up EV companies because they can't afford to develop this technology.\nLet's look closer at the alternative consumer retail EV investments.\nLucid Motors (CCIV)\nLucid was founded in 2007 under the name Atieva and originally focused on building electric vehicle batteries and powertrains for other vehicle manufacturers. The company rebranded itself as Lucid Motors in October 2016 and shifted its strategy to develop an all-electric, high-performance, luxury vehicle. Shortly after that, it encountered financial difficulties and struggled to get short-term funding. In 2018 it raised more than $1 billion in investment, primarily from Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund, and gave up a majority of the company.\nLucid Motors reached an agreement to become a publicly-traded company through a merger with the SPAC Churchill Capital IV Corp., in one of the largest deals SPAC EV deals. The combined company, in which Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund will continue to be the largest shareholder, had a transaction equity value of $11.75 billion (for $10/share). At the same time, it closed a PIPE investment priced at $15 a share, giving it an implied pro forma equity value of $24 billion. Rumors about this deal circulated before the transaction was formally announced, making it one of the most anticipated SPAC deals. The hype and speculation drove up the stock price of Churchill Capital IV Corp. from its opening price of $10 a share to almost $60. I believe that some of this may have been driven by novice SPAC investors who didn't realize that the valuation of CCIV didn't include the eventual valuation of Lucid. The share price dropped more than 30% after the details of the deal were announced. It's also likely that Lucid renegotiated the terms of the merger based on the price jump.\nThe company's first product is the Lucid Air, a well-equipped luxury electric vehicle that features 406 miles of projected range and 480 horsepower with a starting price of $77,400, or $69,900 after the U.S. Federal Tax Credit of $7,500. This new Lucid Air model is positioned as a high-performance, ultra-efficient luxury EV sedan in a line of future vehicles that are expected to include Lucid Air Touring, Grand Touring, and Dream Edition versions.\nThe company plans to begin production and deliveries of the Lucid Air in North America in the second half of 2021. Previously the company aimed to begin deliveries earlier in 2021. It intends to sell the car in Europe in 2022, followed by China in 2023. Lucid vehicles will be produced at its new factory in Casa Grande, Arizona. The company plans to expand the factory in phases in the coming years to have the capacity to produce 365,000 units per year at scale. The initial phase of the $700 million factory construction was completed late last year and will have the capacity to produce 30,000 vehicles a year.\nLucid also apparently has a commitment to build an assembly plant in Saudi Arabia, which was rumored to be a condition of the $1 billion investment from the Saudi public fund. The Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund also provided $600 million in bridge financing and invested in the SPAC deal as well. So, while this assembly plant may be expensive and may not be critical, it will most likely need to happen.\nLucid has ambitious plans to achieve $14 billion in revenue in 2025, and its current stock price at $29.17, which gives it a market cap of more than $46 billion, may already reflect those ambitions. Its market cap is roughly the same as Ford.\nFisker (FSR)\nFisker, which had its origins with Fisker Automotive, is an interesting story that ended in bankruptcy. Henrik Fisker originally co-founded Fisker Automotive in 2007. He was responsible for designing many premium cars such as the Aston Martin. Subsequently, Fisker Automotive had to deal with a Tesla lawsuit against Fisker Automotive alleging it stole Tesla's technology, a controversial $528.7 million conditional loan from the Department of Energy, a recall of its battery produced by A123, and the loss of several hundred vehicles in hurricane Sandy. Henrik Fisker resigned in March 2013 because of disagreements over business strategy and in November 2013, Fisker filed its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case.\nHowever, Henrik Fisker retained the Fisker brand and trademarks, and in 2016 he started another electric vehicle company named Fisker Inc. with the Fisker brand and trademarks. In 2019, Fisker shifted from developing a sports car with a solid-state battery to the Ocean SUV featuring a lithium-ion battery, which it later abandoned for a solid-state battery.\nFisker is positioning itself in a unique segment for those who want the most environmentally friendly EV. While this may be an early growth segment for EVs, it's difficult to estimate its eventual competitive advantage and the size of this environmentally-friendly market segment.\nThe Ocean is a crossover made of recycled metal and plastic with an expected base price of $37,499, and an expected lease of less than $400 a month. Fisker's plan is essentially a lease-only business model that lets customers keep a vehicle for years or return it at any time. It aims to source motors, batteries, and other components from technical partnerships with automakers and will outsource production from existing auto plants. Fisker is currently taking reservations at $250 for the Ocean. It also announced an agreement with Foxconn to jointly develop a vehicle pioneering a new market segment to be sold globally under the Fisker brand commencing in Q4 2023. at the end of 2022. Production will start at Magna Steyr's manufacturing facilities in Europe. At the end of February 2021, it had 12,467 cancellable reservations.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/924a617c90fc3276d7bdab8c64ebfdcf\" tg-width=\"744\" tg-height=\"389\">Fisker Ocean. Source: Fisker\nFisker went public using a SPAC (Spartan Energy). The original combination with SPAQ in October 2020 was valued at $2.9 billion with a cash investment of approximately $1 billion. The stock currently trades at approximately $21 per share, after reaching a high of $28.50, from the original price of $10, which is a market cap of $4.6 billion. Fisker projects $3.3 billion in revenue in 2023. It had almost $1 billion in cash at the end of 2020 and expected to use almost half of this in 2021: $250 million on operating expenses and $250 million in capital investments. If the Ocean is delayed into 2023, Fisker risks missing its revenue objective and will potentially need additional cash to complete development and launch.\nFaraday Future (PSAC)\nFaraday Future was originally established in May 2014 by Chinese businessman Jia Yueting. It is headquartered in Los Angeles and has offices in Silicon Valley, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu. Faraday Future also had a turbulent history. In 2016, it struggled financially, and in 2017 some key executives departed over a dispute about financial issues. They later founded Canoo.\nIn December 2018 the company announced layoffs due to a cash crunch and financial troubles. The company's founder Jia Yueting filed for personal bankruptcy in the United States' federal court in Delaware on October 14, 2019. Following Jia's personal bankruptcy, he decided to step down from his role as CEO of Faraday Future in order to assume a new position as the Chief Product and User Officer. He was replaced as CEO by Carsten Breitfeld, the former CEO at rival electric vehicle startup Byton.\nSomehow, Faraday was able to raise $2.3 billion in private funding over 5 rounds from a variety of investors. In early 2018, it received $1.5 billion in funding from an undisclosed investor from Hong Kong.\nFaraday's flagship product offering will be the FF 91, featuring 1,050 HP, 0-60 mph in less than 2.4 seconds, zero gravity seats with the largest 60-degree reclining angles, and a user experience designed to create a mobile, connected, and luxurious living space. The FF 91 is targeted to launch in 2022.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e38bfb3211c72bb73bc26f2ebe296fe\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"854\">FF 91. Source: Faraday Future\nIts strategic partners include one of China's top three OEMs and a critical Chinese city, which the company believes will help establish its presence in the Chinese vehicle market.\nFaraday Future plans several cars based on its Variable Platform Architecture. FF 91 is the first production vehicle and flagship model. Pricing will range between $120,000 and upwards of $200,000, which places it against formidable opponents. Faraday Future is already looking forward to expanding its range with a pair of smaller models named FF 81 and FF 71. The FF 81 is planned to be priced at $75,000 to 95,000 with a 2023 release. The FF 71 is planned to be priced at $45,000 to $65,000 with a planned release of 2024.\nThe Primary Manufacturing Facility for FF 91 is in Hanford, CA with contract manufacturing for future models in Gunsan, South Korea.\nFaraday Future is planning high-Level automation with a Level-3 capable system using a redundant safety architecture based on NVIDIA Xavier System-on-a-chip. It will be capable of highway auto-drive and hardware ready for advanced auto-drive. It is targeting full autonomous valet parking &amp; summon in any parking lot or structure. Eventually, it expects full auto-drive, including full 360˚ sensor coverage for advanced auto-drive &amp; auto-park features.\nIn January 2021, Faraday Future announced that the company would go public through a reverse merger with the special purpose acquisition company Property Solutions Acquisition Corp. (PSAC). The combined company will be valued at $3.4 billion. Faraday Future is expected to set up contract manufacturing operations in China through their partnership with Geely. Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn is also expected to serve as an additional strategic partner.\nFaraday Future projects $10.5 billion in revenue in 2024 and $21.5 billion in 2025. Revenue is expected to start in 2022 with the delivery of 2,400 vehicles for $504 million. Most likely these projections could prove to be optimistic. At a current stock price of approximately $12.80, it has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nLordstown Motors (RIDE)\nLordstown Motors based in Lordstown, Ohio, was originally founded in 2018 by Steve Burns, the former CEO of Workhorse Group. The company licensed technology from Workhorse in return for royalties and a 10% ownership. Lordstown is named after the famous GM Lordstown manufacturing plant, which it acquired in November 2019 in an unusual transaction. GM announced that it was closing the plant and was under a great deal of pressure for that decision. So, GM \"sold\" the plant to a company that was renamed Lordstown for an estimated $20 million that it loaned to the acquiring company. Subsequently, the sale was redefined to be part of a $75 million investment by GM, of which $50 million was an in-kind exchange for the plant.\nLordstown went public through the SPAC DiamondPeak Holdings Corp. in 2020. It currently has more than 400 employees.\nIts first product is the Lordstown Endurance, a full-sized EV pickup truck. Lordstown is positioning Endurance for the pickup fleet market segment. The expected price is $52,000+, and it claimed to have more than 100,000 pre-orders by January 2021. However, a recent research article published by a short seller claimed \"Our research has revealed that Lordstown's order book consists of fake or entirely non-binding orders, from customers that generally do not even have fleets of vehicles.\" Lordstown is disputing that article.\nIt believes the fleet pickup market segment is underserved with no current EV-focused competition. It estimates that the full-sized pick-up truck fleet market is 1.2 million vehicles per year in the U.S., but it's more fragmented than other truck fleets. Pickup \"fleets\" tend to be much smaller and local, so there may not be much of a market distinction for a small company buying several EV pickups from a traditional auto dealer. About half of the total U.S. pickup market is classified as fleet sales, meaning more than one.\nEven though Lordstown is targeting the commercial fleet market, it is a similar product to the Ford EV F-150. So I classify it in the consumer EV category. It is a class 2 vehicle. Lordstown also may enter the SUV market in the longer-term.\nThe Endurance will compete against future models from Rivian and Tesla, as well as Ford and GM in ICE pick-ups and their upcoming EV pick-ups. Ford plans on selling its EV F-150 in mid-2022. Initial production of the Endurance is expected in the second half of 2021, so it may have a short market advantage. Nevertheless, it forecasts selling 65,000 vehicles in 2023 and 107,000 in 2024. These estimates could be a large percentage of the EV pick-up market in those years.\nAt the SPAC merger, the implied valuation for Lordstown was $1.6 billion, including a $500 million PIPE and the $75 million by GM. Lordstown's financial projections appear to be aggressive. It projects to start shipping the Endurance in late 2021 with projected revenue in 2022 of $1.7 billion, increasing to $5.8 billion in 2024. Its stock price at approximately $13.60 values the company at a market cap of approximately $2.2 billion. The value of the company depends on the likelihood of achieving its projections.\nA fleet sales strategy makes sense for Lordstown since it would be too expensive to build a retail sales and service capability. However, it's not clear that this will become a distinct competitive advantage. Some small fleets may still prefer to buy their EV pickups from established local dealers with service capabilities.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nCanoo started as Evelozcity in 2017 and rebranded as Canoo in the spring of 2019. Canoo is a Los Angeles-based company that develops electric vehicles. It has over 350 employees. Canoo has designed a modular electric platform purpose-built to deliver maximum vehicle interior space, which is adaptable to support a wide range of vehicle applications for consumers and businesses. Canoo expects to launch its first consumer model in 2022, simply named the Canoo that will be available by subscription, followed shortly after by a multi-purpose delivery vehicle and a sports vehicle, each built off of the same underlying platform. Canoo went public using a SPAC (Hennessy Capital Acquisition) and now trades as GOEV.\nCanoo's all-electric skateboard-like platform is designed to support both consumer retail and commercial vehicle configurations. The EV leverages Canoo's flat skateboard architecture for a high level of usable interior space. Its commercial vehicle program, expected in 2023, addresses a projected $50B+ last-mile delivery market with an EV platform that maximizes cargo volume.\nHyundai Motor Group said it would jointly develop an electric vehicle platform with the company.\nCanoo's platform strategy is interesting. It could be used as an EV platform for custom fleets of delivery vehicles. It has no AV development, but it claims to be \"AV Ready\" which could be useful for AV companies wanting to build custom AV delivery fleets.\nIts all-electric multi-purpose delivery vehicle is expected to be priced starting at approximately $33,000. It is based on Canoo's proprietary electric platform and will be offered in two initial size variants, with others to follow. Limited availability will begin in 2022, with scaled production and launch planned for 2023. Customers can pre-order the multi-purpose delivery vehicle for a refundable deposit of $100 per vehicle\nIt plans to offer two multi-purpose delivery vehicles: the MPDV1 and the larger MPDV2. The first has a 200-foot cargo volume and a range of 130-200 miles. It offers more capacity than today's ICE delivery vehicles at an affordable price with urban mobility enabled by a space-efficient footprint. The vehicle is also designed to fit within many height-restricted areas like parking garages.\nThe MPDV2 has a cargo volume of 450 feet and a range of 90-190 miles. Its roof and step-in height enable individuals to easily walk-in the vehicle and accommodate a standing position while inside.\nThe original SPAC transaction provided approximately $600 million, with a pro forma equity value of approximately $2.4 billion. Like other SPAC mergers, its stock price has fluctuated. It currently trades at about $15.90 per share for a market cap of approximately $3.7 billion. Canoo projects $2.0 billion in revenue in 2025 from about $500 million in engineering services, $1.2 billion from its consumer vehicle subscriptions, and the remainder from its commercial program. Canoo expects revenue of more than $300 million in 2022 after the launch of its lifestyle consumer vehicle.\nSince its first products are aimed at consumers, as is most of its forecasted 2025 revenue, I categorize it primarily as a consumer EV company. However, I think the design of that Canoo vehicle may not attract enough customers. More importantly, its subscription service way of selling its EV to consumers is risky. I think it has more potential in the commercial market, however, a dual strategy (consumer and commercial) is challenging. I like its skateboard platform design and that could prove to be a competitive advantage.\nRivian\nAlthough not yet public, I include Rivian because it has plans for an IPO as soon as Sept 2021, although it could slip into 2022. There are rumors that the company is targeting a market valuation of approximately $50B. Rivian has already raised more than $8 billion to date from Amazon, Ford, T. Rowe Price, and others.\nRivian has developed and vertically integrated a connected electric platform that can be flexibly applied to a range of applications, including the company's adventure products, as well as B2B products such as the Amazon last-mile delivery vans. The company's initial products, the R1T and R1S, provide a combination of performance, off-road capability, and utility. These vehicles will be produced at Rivian's manufacturing plant in Normal, Ill., with customer deliveries expected to begin in summer 2021. The launch of the R1S three-row electric SUV will follow in August.\nAdditional lower-priced models are being planned. The expected R2 series would include at least two smaller electric vehicles to coincide with the smaller platform, then another platform for R3.\nCommercial Delivery EV Companies\nEV truck companies differ based on the type of truck they are developing. The technology and markets are very different, so I separate them into two categories. The first category includes commercial delivery vehicles.\nCompanies making EV delivery vehicles have some major advantages that could make them good investments. First, delivery vehicles typically travel less than 250 miles during a day, so they can be conveniently recharged overnight. Secondly, they are typically sold in large quantities to fleets. This means that building a retail sales infrastructure is not necessary. It only requires a small salesforce. In addition, maintenance can also be provided at the fleet's operational center, so not as many service centers are required.\nThe disadvantage in this market is that there are a relatively small number of customers that buy in large volumes, so if the EV manufacturer can't get enough large customers, they may not be able to stay in business. GM estimates the combined market opportunity for parcel and food delivery, as well as reverse logistics, in the U.S. will be more than $850 billion by 2025.\nThe commercial market is expected to be a major growth area for EVs. Other start-up automakers like Rivian as well as legacy automakers such as Ford, Daimler, and GM have announced plans to enter the segment. GM recently announced its BrightDrop ecosystem for commercial customers that includes an all-new electric delivery van, the EV600 available by the end of 2021, as well as an integrated autonomous pallet and related services.\nThis group of EV companies focuses primarily on commercial delivery. In general, these are in the light-duty trucks category, although it also includes some medium-duty trucks. This generally includes the following commercial truck classes:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 1: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 0-6,000 pounds or 0-2,722 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 2: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 6,001-10,000 pounds or 2,722-4,536 kilograms.1</li>\n <li>Class 3: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 10,001-14,000 pounds or 4,536-6,350 kilograms.</li>\n</ul>\nIt can also include somewhat larger medium-duty EV delivery trucks:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.</li>\n</ul>\nEV delivery trucks also have an advantage over ICE vehicles because they can have a greater delivery storage space. Smaller buses and transit vehicles are also included in this category.\nLast-mile package delivery is not an immediate-term autonomous vehicle opportunity because it requires a delivery person to be on the truck anyway.\nWorkhorse Group (WKHS)\nWorkhorse has been a public company for ten years. Originally AMP Electric Vehicles, it was established in 2007 as a developmental-stage vehicle electrification company, focusing on conversions. AMP Electric Vehicles went public in 2010 trading on the OTC market under the AMPD symbol. When the economic benefits of conversion became less certain, it pivoted away from passenger vehicles and began to focus on electrifying commercial vehicles. AMP acquired the Workhorse brand and the Workhorse custom chassis assembly plant in Union City. In March of 2013, AMP formally changed its name to Workhorse Group Incorporated.\nThe Company designs and builds a last-mile delivery electric vehicle. The C-Series EVs cover the larger size of commercial delivery vehicles in Classes 3-5. As part of its solutions, it also develops cloud-based, real-time telematics performance monitoring systems. It sells its vehicles to fleet customers directly and through its primary distributor, Ryder Systems. It is currently focused on bringing the C-Series electric delivery truck to market and fulfilling the existing backlog of orders.\nThe C-Series looks like a viable EV replacement for the 350,000 last-mile delivery vehicles sold in the U.S. annually. It recently announced an increased driving range from 100 miles to 160, which should open more market opportunities. It has a viable short-term go-to-market strategy selling fleets to delivery companies. It currently has test vehicles with UPS, DHL, FedEx, Amazon, and Walmart.\nWorkhorse recently lost out on the United States Postal Services Next Generation Delivery Vehicle project, however, it is in the process of challenging this decision. Additionally, its investment in Lordstown also provides an indirect investment opportunity. On November 7, 2019, the Company entered a transaction with Lordstown Motors to grant LMC a perpetual and worldwide license to certain intellectual property relating to its W-15 electric pickup truck platform and related technology in exchange for royalties, equity interest (approximately 10%) in LMC, and other considerations. This was a $320 million asset for Workhorse at the end of 2020.\nWorkhorse received a significant increase in orders in Q4/2020 but built just seven trucks in the fourth quarter due to production systems and supply chain issues. Workhorse plans to continue to take it slow, striving to build three of its composite-body battery-electric trucks a day in March with a plan to reach 10 trucks a day by the end of June. This makes its original 2021 goal of producing 1,800 trucks unlikely. It partnered with Hitachi and Hitachi Capital America (\"HCA\") to improve the Company's manufacturing, operational, and supply chain capabilities as well as to develop a national dealer network to support Workhorse's sales with vehicle financing options for both dealers and customers.\nWorkhorse has a market cap of approximately $1.9 billion. While Workhorse had ongoing revenue, unlike many other new EV companies, its revenue is still insignificant. It had a revenue of $1.4 million in 2020 and $377,000 in 2019. It has a backlog of over 8,000 vehicles but doesn't expect to be able to build many of those in 2021. It raised $270 million in capital over several financings, providing the Company with additional capital to build its backlog. It had cash of $215 million as of March 1, 2021. Because Workhorse is a traditional public company, it hasn't made long-term financial projections like SPAC-based companies.\nElectric Last Mile (FIII)\nElectric Last Mile, based in Troy Michigan, was founded by Jason Luo, former CEO of Ford China before it was acquired by China's Ningbo Joyson Electronic for $920 million in 2016, including James Taylor, former CEO of GM's Hummer brand and former CEO of electric car maker Karma Automotive. Taylor serves as the company's top executive with Luo as the company's chairman.\nThe company plans to launch a small electric delivery van (class 1-2), called the UD-1, in the third quarter of 2021, and then introduce an Urban Utility vehicle (Class 2-3) in 2022. These are expected to compete with Workhorse, Rivian, Canoo, as well as the Ford eTransit and the GMC BV1, none of which is expected to be a Class 1 vehicle.\nThe company says it has 30,000 preorders for its van, representing more than $1 billion in sales. Electric Last Miles vehicles will be based on Sokon's commercial van made in China through a joint venture with Dongfeng Automobile Co Ltd. in order to accelerate development time.\nElectric Last Mile (ELM) is expected to manufacture the vans in a former General Motors Co. Hummer plant in Mishawaka, Ind., that the company is acquiring from China's Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co. Ltd. The plant has the capacity to produce 100,000 vehicles annually with plans to build approximately 4,000 UD-1 vans by the end of 2021. The UD-1 has a starting price of $32,500 and a range of 150 miles. The battery for the vehicle is expected to be supplied by the Chinese battery company CATL.\nELM believes that it has a competitive advantage because its first vehicle, the ELM Urban Delivery, is scheduled to be available in 2021. It is based on a proven, existing platform developed and sold by Sokon Group in the Asian market, where there are 30,000 of these electric delivery vehicles driving 1.5 million miles every day. At the close of the business combination, ELM will be an independent, U.S. company producing electric vehicles in the U.S. with Sokon Group providing access to its know-how, parts supply, and field and service data.\nELM expects that the Urban Delivery vehicle will be the first electric delivery vehicle coming to market in the class 1 category (GVW of 6,000 lbs or less) in the U.S. It will also have 35% more carrying volume compared to similar ICE delivery vehicles, a critical part of the value proposition. It also anticipates that its price and greater carrying volume will allow it to take market share from the class 2 category of vehicles as well.\nIts crossover product portfolio strategy targets commercial delivery vehicles spanning from class 1 to class 3, which represents over 80% of the last mile market.\nELM anticipates $122 million in revenue in 2021, rapidly increasing to $3 billion in 2025. The price of FIII stock increased immediately following its announcement with Electric Last Mile, rising more than 40% to $14.50, but now it has dropped closer to the original deal price to $10.25 for a market cap of approximately $1.5 billion.\nGreenPower Motor Company (GP)\nGreenPower Motor Company Inc. is a Canadian battery-electric bus manufacturer with multiple models of high- and low-floor vehicles, including transit buses, school buses, and shuttles. GreenPower offers commercial vehicles for delivery, public transit, schools, vanpooling, micro-transit, shuttles, and is developing a capability of autonomous operation. It went public on August 28, 2020.\nIn 2014 GreenPower launched its first purpose-built, battery-electric bus, the EV350, 40-foot transit bus. GreenPower received its first order in 2017 for ten EV350s from the City of Porterville, California.\nGreenPower's electric buses are purpose-built and designed to be all-electric, allowing it to put the battery and propulsion system in optimized locations that provide weight and structural advantages. Its primary EV is the EV Star with more than 120 vehicles delivered. It comes in several variations:\n<ul>\n <li>EV Star - Up to 19 passengers</li>\n <li>EV Star Plus - Up to 24 passengers</li>\n <li>EV Star ADA - Passenger and curbside lift for ADA</li>\n <li>EV Star Cargo - 5,000 pounds of load</li>\n <li>EV Star Cargo Plus - 570 cubic feet of cargo space.</li>\n</ul>\nIts EV school bus seats up to 90 students and has a range of up to 150 miles.\nGreenPower had revenue of $13.5 million in 2020 It has about $21 million in cash. It's an interesting alternative since it is already shipping EVs, has revenue, and also has a lower market cap of less than $1 billion. Since it did a traditional IPO, it hasn't published longer-term financial forecasts.\nArrival (CIIC)\nArrival was founded in 2015 in London to make a variety of commercial electric vehicles. It has approximately 1,200 employees across 11 cities in 8 countries. In November 2020, Arrival and the SPAC CIIG entered into a business combination agreement with an implied valuation of $5.39 billion.\nArrival plans on releasing four commercial EVs over the next few years.\n<ul>\n <li>Q4/2021: An electric bus for 8-125 passengers and a range of 240-400km</li>\n <li>Q3/2022: An electric delivery van with a payload of 975-2,000kg and a range of 150-340km</li>\n <li>2022: A larger electric van with a payload of 4,000 kg and a range of 190-400km</li>\n <li>2023: a small vehicle platform with a range of 100-300km.</li>\n</ul>\nThis mix provides a nice diversified portfolio of EVs. Arrival claims to have received orders from UPS for 10,000 vans. It plans a unique flexible manufacturing approach using micro-factories with each projected to manufacture 10,000 vans per year. All of its vehicles use a modular skateboard electric platform.\nArrival ambitiously projects $14.1 billion in revenue in 2024. Half of that revenue is expected from delivery vans, 22% from buses, and the rest from the large van and its small vehicle platform. With CIIC's stock price at $24.80 per share, Arrival's current market cap is relatively high at approximately $15.0 billion. Justifying its market cap depends on its ability to release, sell, and produce its four commercial EVs.\nProterra (ACTC)\nProterra is a commercial electric vehicle company with over a decade of production experience. The Company has designed an end-to-end, flexible technology platform that claims to deliver higher performance and a low total cost of ownership to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end customers.\nProterra, Inc., was originally founded in Golden, Colorado, by Dale Hill in 2004. Later the company wanted to take the lead in creating zero-emission, U.S.-based transit buses. In 2010 it moved its manufacturing plant from Golden, Colorado to Greenville, South Carolina. In 2015, Proterra was awarded a $3 million grant from the California Energy Commission to fund the design, development, and construction of the company's battery-electric transit bus manufacturing line in the City of Industry, California. It moved its headquarters from Greenville, South Carolina, to Burlingame, California, in October 2015. Proterra raised more than $600 million in funding.\nIt is going public through the SPAC ArcLight (ACTC) with a pro forma valuation of $1.6 billion. Upon completion of the transaction, Proterra expects to have up to $825 million in cash to fund growth initiatives, including R&amp;D and the expansion of its next-generation battery program.\nProterra has three complementary businesses:\n<ul>\n <li>Proterra Powered: Delivering battery systems and electrification solutions to commercial vehicle manufacturers</li>\n <li>Proterra Transit:Providing an electric transit bus OEMs</li>\n <li>Proterra Energy:Offering turnkey charging and energy management solutions.</li>\n</ul>\nThe company's battery systems have been proven in more than 16 million service miles driven by its fleet of transit vehicles and validated through partnerships with commercial vehicle OEMs. Proterra has produced and delivered more than 300 megawatt-hours of battery systems, more than 550 heavy-duty electric transit buses, and installed 54 megawatts of charging systems.\nProterra expected $193 million of revenue in 2020, with an estimated $750 million in existing orders and backlog. It projects $2.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with about 1/3 coming from its Transit business, and 2/3 From Powered &amp; Energy. At ACTC's current stock price of $17.85, Proterra has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nRivian\nRivian (see earlier description in consumer retail) will also compete in the commercial delivery market. It has been working with Amazon (a major investor) to build large electric delivery vans for Prime. Developed specifically for Amazon, a small fleet of Prime vans is on the road now, testing deliveries to customers and gathering feedback. In late fall, it could grow to a large fleet as Rivian ramps up the volume.\nThe EV range of 150 miles is tailored to Amazon's use cycle to optimize the size, weight, and cost of the commercial vehicle. Rivian has three sizes of batteries, but Amazon is starting with just one of them.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nSee the previous summary under consumer retail EV.\nMedium and Long-Haul Trucking EV Companies\nCompanies developing medium- and long-haul EV trucks face a more difficult challenge with battery range. These trucks haul much more weight than commercial delivery vehicles and because they are designed for long distances, they can't stop every 200-300 miles for recharging.\nFor this reason, many of these companies are using unique hybrid technologies for their trucks. The EV trucks in this category are primarily heavy-duty but also include some medium-duty trucks and specialty vehicles. A couple of the companies focus on retrofitting trucks to be electric.\nMedium-Duty Trucks\nThe medium-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 4, 5, and 6:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 6: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 19,501-26,000 pounds or 8,846-11,793 kilograms.1</li>\n</ul>\nHeavy-Duty Trucks\nThe heavy-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 7 and 8:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 7: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 26,001 to 33,000 pounds or 11,794-14,969 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 8: This class of trucks has a GVWR of greater than 33,001 pounds or 14,969 kilograms and includes all tractor-trailers.</li>\n</ul>\nThe Tesla Semi is a battery vehicle planned for a range of 300 or 500 miles and a speed of 60 MPH with 80,000 lbs of cargo. Tesla plans to start shipping the Semi later this year when it expects to have sufficient cell volume to meet its needs with the production of its 4680 battery pack.\nNikola(NASDAQ:NKLA)\nNikola has been a very controversial company. Founded in 2015, it originally had two different strategies. Its primary strategy is to lease fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) Class-8 heavy trucks and provide the refueling infrastructure to corporate customers. Its second strategy was to develop the Badger EV truck using GM technology.\nNikola originally merged with a SPAC to go public, at an enterprise value of approximately $3.3 billion. On June 6th, 2020, its market cap jumped to more than $30 billion, then later it dropped because of problems with its originally planned deal with GM.\nNikola originally expected a deal with General Motors that included the production of the Nikola Badger EV pickup truck. The proposed arrangement was that GM would take a $2 billion equity stake in Nikola and in return would engineer and produce the Badger. In November 2020, GM and Nikola scrapped the original arrangement. Now it appears that GM will supply Nikola with only its Hydrotec hydrogen fuel-cell technology to integrate into the EV manufacturer's commercial class 7 and class 8 zero-emission semi-trucks. So, the Badger is probably dead.\nNikola now sees semi-trucks as the company's \"core business\" and fuel cells as an increasingly important segment of the semi-truck market thanks to their efficiency in weight and consumption. It expects to begin testing by the end of 2021.\nIt has received pre-orders from Anheuser-Busch and a few other companies, but it doesn't expect deliveries until 2023. Hydrogen fueling stations are key to its strategy, both providing a source of revenue and necessary fueling infrastructure for the trucks to operate, but they also cost a lot. In its March 2020 investor deck, Nikola said a single station capable of fueling 210 trucks a day would cost $16.6 million. Its initial planned network of 700 stations would cost roughly $11.6 billion.\nNikola was also accused of misrepresentation, and its executive chairman and founder stepped down.\nAt the time of the SPAC merger, it projected an optimistic forecast of more than $3 billion in revenue by 2024, with a net income of $145 million. Most of that revenue was expected to come from its Badger truck, which is no longer in the plans. Yet its market cap is still almost $6 billion.\nHyliion (HYLN)\nHyliion, founded in 2015 in Austin, went public in October 2020 through the SPAC Tortoise Acquisition Corp. (SHLL). In March 2019, automotive parts manufacturer Dana Inc. made an equity investment into Hyliion, and together they are manufacturing and marketing Class 8 EVs to Dana's customers, including Volvo, Navistar, and Peterbilt.\nHyliion's strategy is unique, and a very different strategy from Nikola. Essentially it generates electricity onboard the truck using compressed natural gas (CNG). This should be a benefit for longer-range trucking. Hyliion's Hypertruck concept involves an all-electric drivetrain utilizing Dana's electric motor, inverter, and axle technologies. The truck's batteries are fueled by onboard tanks of CNG. With some 700 CNG stations already operating nationwide, it believes that there no need to build out expensive superchargers or hydrogen infrastructure.\nKuwait-based logistics company, Agility, has already placed an order for 1,000 Hypertrucks with initial deliveries targeted in 2022. Combined with a fully electric drivetrain and a natural gas-powered onboard generator to recharge the battery, the Hypertruck ERX will provide more than 1,000 miles of range.\nHyliion will eventually compete with Nikola (FCEV) and the Tesla battery-based Semi, but it plans to have a longer range and lower operating costs. Its HyperTruck ERX is expected to be available in 2021. It also has a hybrid-electric truck.\nThe combination with SHLL had an estimated market cap of about $1.5 billion, with approximately $530 million going to the company, including a $325 million fully committed PIPE. At approximately $13.50 per share, its current market cap is approximately $2.2 billion, significantly down from its peak. Hyliion projects $2 billion in revenue in 2024, which it claims is only about 2% of the addressable market.\nXL Fleet (XL)\nXL Fleet is a 10-year old company that went public through the SPAC Pivotal. XL is different because it provides fleet electrification modifications for ICE trucks across a wide range of vehicle classes (class 2-5) and types. It has over 200 of the largest commercial and municipal fleets as customers, with more than 3,200 XL systems deployed and over 130 million miles driven by customers to date. XL's customer base includes FedEx, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Verizon, the City of Boston, Seattle Fire Department, Yale University, and Harvard University.\nXL's business model is essentially retrofitting existing trucks to be hybrids and then later expanding into fully electric truck conversions. It claims to be creating a fully integrated platform for this. It remains to be seen if the retrofitting business will continue to grow or will it diminish when more trucks are designed and manufactured with EV capabilities.\nUnlike some other EV companies that have no revenue yet because they are still developing products, XL is more of a small company doing low-volume retrofits. It had $7.2 million in revenue in 2019, $21 million in 2020, and estimates $76 million in 2021, but it forecasts $1.3 billion in revenue in 2024 in its investor presentation. It plans to do this by expanding its product line from hybrid to plug-in hybrid to fully electric across a broader range of trucks. It claims to have a $220 million sales pipeline for the next 12 months.\nShort-seller, Muddy Waters, claimed after talking to former XL Fleet employees, that it believed the company significantly exaggerated its order backlog, that the return on investment for the company's products was likely negative, and that it would not be able to compete with big car makers on electrification. The company thoroughly refuted these claims.\nThe original enterprise valuation was approximately $1.4 billion at a $10 share price for the merger. Its price jumped by about 35% but has since gone back down to $12.40 for a market cap of about $1.8 billion. Although XL Fleet has revenue and other EV companies don't, this may not be an advantage. It appears to be a small company for many years that has gone public at a high valuation with grand plans. The risks are in its ability to make a jump from $76 million in 2021 to $1.3 billion in 2024, as well as the question about retrofitting being replaced by new EV trucks by then.\nXos (NGAC)\nXos Trucks specializes in the field of manufacturing fully electric commercial vehicles. It features a software platform that is designed to accommodate an extensive variety of medium-duty bodies, wheelbase, and range requirements up to 200 miles. It was founded in 2016 and headquartered in North Hollywood, California. It received $20 million of investment in 2020 and now is going public through a merger with the SPAC ExtGen Acquisition Corporation (NGAC) at an estimated proforma value of $1.965 billion.\nIts focus is on medium- and heavy-duty last mile and return-to-base segments (class 5/6, class 6/7, and class 7/8) commercial fleets and specialty vehicles. Some vehicles are currently in production and in regular on-road operations with key fleet customers, and it claimed 6,000 unit orders in backlog.\nIts MD-platform is for classes 5-6 for pickup and delivery. Its HD X-Platform is an adaptable chassis for highway, vocational, and severe work conditions. Its market is for customers with highly predictable routes that allow for batteries designed for a more limited range. A significantly larger frame and smaller battery pack allow for reduced density.\nXos has a bundled all-in-one offering that allows fleets to access all the tools and services they need to go electric with a single point of contact at a fixed monthly expense.\nXos had $3 million in revenue in 2020 and estimates $14 million in 2021. However, it forecasts $5.2 billion in revenue in 2025. At the current stock price of $10.30, its market cap is approximately $2 billion, about the same as its original SPAC transaction.\nLion Electric (NGA)\nLion Electric is a Canadian company founded by Marc Bédard in 2008. Its focus is to be a leader in designing, developing, and manufacturing purpose-built urban electric vehicles; vehicles that are specifically designed as delivery trucks, refuse trucks, bucket trucks, moving trucks, school buses, and shuttle buses. It has over 300 all-electric vehicles on the road today.\nIn November 2020, it announced that it was going public through the SPAC NGA. The transaction had an estimated pro forma enterprise value of $1.5 billion.\nIt plans on seven new truck models and one new school bus, for a total of 15 all-electric vehicles, representing a full line-up from class 5 to class 8 electric trucks and a full line-up of electric school buses. Its vehicles are produced at its existing manufacturing plant, which has the capacity for the production of up to 2,500 vehicles per year. It intends to open a new plant in the U.S. capable of delivering over 20,000 Lion trucks and buses per year by 2022.\nIts all-electric class 6 and class 8 commercial urban trucks combine power, comfort, and modern technology. Custom-built chassis and cabin designed specifically for an all-electric heavy-duty vehicle. The LionC is an all-electric Type C school bus manufactured in North America. The body and chassis were specifically designed to deliver optimal performance. The LionM is an all-electric midi/minibus that meets paratransit and public transportation requirements. Created and designed specifically for the paratransit market, the is spacious and offers unique features that provide enhanced security and accessibility to the end-users.\nLion Electric had $29 million in revenue in 2020 and expects $204 million in 2021. It forecasts revenue to jump to $3.6 billion a few years later in 2024. Its current market cap is approximately $3.6 billion based on its current stock price of $18.33.\nLightning eMotors (GIK)\nLightning eMotors, formerly Lightning Systems, was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Loveland, Colorado. It provides fleet electrification for familiar commercial vehicle platforms by retrofitting them with its electric powertrains. Lightning eMotors produces electric fleet medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including delivery trucks, shuttle buses, passenger vans, ambulances, bucket trucks, chassis-cab models, and city transit buses. It focuses on urban commercial zero-emission vehicles with a full range of class 3 through class 7 battery-electric and fuel-cell electric vehicles.\nLighting eMotors helps commercial fleets achieve their sustainability goals by offering zero-emission battery-electric vans, trucks, and buses based on familiar, proven vehicles from manufacturers such as Ford and GM. It works with customers, to help them identify their unique commercial electric vehicle, charging, and grant support needs.\nThe Lightning products include integrated all-electric powertrains for the Ford Transit 350HD passenger and cargo vans, Ford E-450 shuttle bus and cutaway models, Ford F-59 step/food van, Ford F-550 cargo trucks and buses, Chevrolet 6500XD Low Cab Forward model, and 30-foot, 35-foot, and 40-foot transit buses.\nLightning has 120 vehicles on the road, and 1,500 vehicles already on order from customers. In addition to making vehicles and powertrains, Lightning also provides a full suite of charging solutions for customers.\nThe deal with GIK has an enterprise value of $650 million, although there is also an Earnout of 20.0% of total pro forma shares outstanding to Lightning eMotors shareholders if the stock crosses certain price thresholds.\nAt the current price, of $11.73, GIK has a market cap of approximately $1 billion, a little more than the original transaction valuation. Similar to XL Fleet, Lightning has the risk that retrofitting may only be an interim business opportunity until more EV trucks are produced.\nPublic Chinese EV Companies\nChina will be the biggest EV market opportunity, and EV start-ups may do better there because there isn't as much entrenched competition from domestic auto companies. China is already the largest EV market in the world, with almost a million EVs sold in 2019. Its EV market represents almost half of the global EV sales volume and is much larger than the U.S. market.\nThe Chinese government has ambitions to become a global leader in new energy vehicles. Soon after the coronavirus outbreak subsided within the country, Chinese authorities announced new policies to support the auto and electric vehicle industries.\nThese Chinese companies are traded through American depository shares (ADS) that contain certain risks. There are financial reporting and transparency risks with these companies, and on top of that, the newer companies are being classified as \"emerging growth\" companies that are already exempt from certain transparency requirements set out in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Like the previous EV stock, these stocks have also been very volatile.\nIn addition to legacy auto manufacturers like BYD, there are also three Chinese EV companies that are publicly traded through American depositary shares.\nBYD Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:BYDDY)\nBYD, which means build your dreams, is the automotive subsidiary of the Chinese multinational BYD Co Ltd. It was founded in January 2003, following BYD Company's acquisition of Tsinchuan Automobile Company. The company produces automobiles, buses, electric bicycles, forklifts, rechargeable batteries, and trucks. The current model range of automobiles includes electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and petrol-engined vehicles. Thirteen years ago, on the advice of his famously skeptical lieutenant, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett made a $232 million investment in BYD, a relatively unknown Chinese car company.\nBy parlaying BYD's rechargeable battery technology into a fast-growing carmaking operation, it gained a foothold in the fledgling electric vehicle market, building longer-lasting batteries and cheaper vehicles than American and Japanese manufacturers were managing to do at the time. In BYD, Buffett and Munger believed they had found a company with a shot at one day becoming the largest player in a global automobile market that was inevitably going electric.\nBYD's start to 2021 was strong with 19,871 plug-in electric cars sold in January in China, including hybrid plug-ins. That was a big increase over 2020 but not as much as 2019.\nLI Auto (LI)\nLixiang, formerly known as Chehejia (\"Car and Home\"), was founded in 2015 and went public in the U.S. on July 30th, 2020. It is a Beijing-based electric-vehicle startup with vertically integrated manufacturing. It designs, researches, manufactures, sells, and offers services featuring a few models of electric vehicles.\nThe company's SUVs are hybrids of a sort. They use electric motors (one on the front axle and one on the rear), but those motors are powered by a combination of a 40.5kWh battery packanda 1.2-liter turbocharged engine paired to a 45-liter fuel tank and a 100kW electric generator, which generates power for the battery pack in real-time. The idea is that the car can be driven for about 100 miles on battery power alone, but it has a total range of nearly 500 miles when leveraging the combustion engine generator.\nThe Company's primary product is an SUV under its brand Li ONE. It also sells peripheral products and provides related services, such as charging stalls, vehicle internet connection services, and extended lifetime warranties. Li Auto is looking to sell a variety of SUVs built on its hybrid technology that range from around $21,000 to about $70,000. The company started shipping its first model in late 2019. It's a midsize SUV is well-appointed and has lots of touchscreens and technology. A full-size premium version is planned for release in 2022.\nDeliveries of Li ONEs were 14,464 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a 67.0% quarter-over-quarter increase and setting a new quarterly record. Deliveries for the full year 2020 reached 32,624 vehicles. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $635 million.\nLI auto went public on July 30th, 2020, raising $1.1 billion at an initial price of $15.50 per share but quickly reached almost $24. It is currently valued at approximately $37 billion at a price of approximately $25.72 per share.\nXPeng (XPEV)\nXiaopeng (XPeng) Motors is a Chinese electric vehicle and technology company that designs and manufactures smart cars. It was founded in 2015 and went public on August 27, 2020, using American depository shares, raising about $1 billion. To date, it has raised about $2.6 billion.\nXPeng aims its EVs at technology-savvy middle-class Chinese consumers, with prices ranging from $22,000 to $45,000 after government subsidies. In some ways, it is a Tesla knock-off at a much lower price. XPeng started production of the G3 in November 2018, and as of July 31, 2020, delivered 18,741. It started production of the P7 and began delivery in May 2020, and as of July 31, 2020, it had delivered 1,966 EVs. The P7 has a range of more than 400 miles. It plans to launch a third Smart EV, a sedan, in 2021. The G3 was among the top-three best-selling electric SUVs in China in 2019.\nXPeng is interesting because it has a platform strategy and is moving aggressively into autonomous driving. It uses a platform strategy to expand product offerings by launching one Smart EV model each year to broaden the addressable market. It builds new models on two highly flexible Smart EV platforms, called David and Edward, respectively. The David platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,600 millimeters to 2,800 millimeters, and the Edward platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,800 millimeters to 3,100 millimeters. It also adopted a platform approach for software systems.\nXPeng claims to be developing an autonomous driving capability for its EVs. The P7 is the first production vehicle to feature the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Xavier system-on-a-chip (SoC) autonomous driving platform. The company's Smart Electric Platform Architecture (SEPA) runs on 2 chips - NVIDIA for the XPILOT and Qualcomm's Snapdragon™ 820A for intelligent services and infotainment, including cameras inside and outside, radars, HD-map, and ultrasonic sensors. Like Tesla, it claims it can create sufficiently-autonomous driving without lidar.\nTo enhance brand recognition and allow more people to experience its Smart EVs, it deployed a small number of Smart EVs in a ride-hailing service in Guangzhou on a trial basis, but it has no current plan to scale up a ride-hailing service.\nXpeng sees first-quarter 2021 deliveries rising 450% year-over-year to 12,500 vehicles. Revenues are expected to increase 533% from a year ago. The company didn't provide bottom-line estimates for the quarter, but will likely post another net loss as it ramps up manufacturing, invests in R&amp;D, and builds out a new manufacturing plant set to open in 2022.\nXpeng reported selling 12,964 vehicles in Q4 2020, up 303% from a year ago. It delivered a total of 27,041 vehicles in 2020, up 112%. It makes the P7 sedan, a rival to the made-in-China Tesla Model 3, and the small G3 SUV.\nThe stock opened on August 27, 2020 at a price of $15 and a valuation of $11 billion, but its stock jumped more than 40% shortly after. Its current valuation is about $35 billion at a stock price of approximately $36.13 per share. It had about $300 million in revenue in 2019 with a loss of about $500 million.\nNio (NIO)\nUnlike previous companies, Nio has been a public company for some time. It originally went public in the U.S. back in September of 2018, selling IPO shares at $6.26 and raising $1 billion.\nNio's IPO was far from smooth. After going public at $6.26 per share, it traded down to nearly $1. Then in the middle of the coronavirus outbreak, Nio received a much-needed investment of $1 billion from investors, including state-backed entities.\nNio designs, jointly manufactures, and sells smart and connected premium electric vehicles, attempting to develop next-generation technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving, and artificial intelligence. Joint manufacturing means that it uses a state-owned contract manufacturer to build its cars.\nNio plans to provide customers with comprehensive, convenient, and innovative charging solutions and other user-centric services. It began deliveries of the ES8, a 7-seater high-performance premium electric SUV in China in June 2018, and its variant, the six-seater ES8, in March 2019. Nio officially launched the ES6, a 5-seater high-performance premium electric SUV, in December 2018 and began deliveries in June 2019. It officially launched the EC6, a 5-seater smart premium electric Coupe SUV, in December 2019 with deliveries in 2020.\nNio sold 17,353 EVs in Q4/2020 and 43,728 for the year. It warned a shortage in chips and batteries will force a production slowdown to 7,500 a month in Q2 from 10,000 vehicles a month in February.\nNio currently trades at more than $43 per share, including a big jump recently, for a valuation of approximately $48 billion. It had revenue of $2.3 billion in 2019 for a loss of $3.8 billion.\nSummary\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this should provide exciting new investment opportunities. However, the investment terrain is complex. There are dozens of new start-ups where the public can now invest that were previously exclusively venture capital investment opportunities. Many of these are following different roads to success. There are legacy auto manufacturers that could prosper or get destroyed in this transition. There are some exciting new EV company opportunities in China. And then there is Tesla.\nThis EV roadmap is intended to help investors explore different roads to investment by explaining the basic strategies for these EV companies. These roads can have different opportunities and risks, and the roadmap helps to frame these. Above all, valuation is an overriding risk that is highlighted throughout this article.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>New Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNew Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-19 14:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.\nLast October, I wrote a popular article providing...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车","01211":"比亚迪股份","NKLA":"Nikola Corporation","LI":"理想汽车","GP":"GreenPower Motor Company Inc.","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","GOEV":"Canoo Inc.","WKHS":"Workhorse Group, Inc.","F":"福特汽车","002594":"比亚迪","TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来","FSR":"菲斯克","HYLN":"Hyliion Holdings Corp."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1196402560","content_text":"Summary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.\nLast October, I wrote a popular article providing a roadmap for investing in electric vehicles, but since then, so much has changed: new entrants, new strategies, fluctuating valuations, etc.\nSo, I updated and greatly expanded the previous EV investment roadmap.\nThis update includes a deeper look at valuations for 23 EV companies with revenue projections, when available.\nIt also classifies these EV companies into their primary market categories and summarizes their different strategies.\n\nPhoto by Sven Loeffler/iStock via Getty Images\nMy article Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap published five months ago, was popular, and some followers have requested an update. Many new EV companies entered the market, most of them through SPACs. Valuations fluctuated wildly, and there has been a great deal of publicity around these companies.\nThis new updated EV investment roadmap is greatly expanded. In addition to updating the strategies and progress of companies previously discussed, I expanded the number of companies covered. This article also groups EV companies into their primary markets, enabling better comparisons and evaluation of market opportunities. In addition, it includes a comparative valuation chart showing every company's market cap with a comparison to projected revenue, where possible. This takes advantage (good or bad) of looking at the long-term revenue forecasts provided in SPAC mergers that public companies can't make.\nIn addition to the EV manufacturers discussed here, there are also EV investment opportunities in charging station companies, battery manufacturers, and battery materials companies. These were covered in the original roadmap and may also be updated in a later article.\nApproximately 2 million EVs were sold in 2019, and although the number declined along with all auto sales in 2020, it is forecasted to increase in 2021 and reach 8-10 million by 2025. Some forecast that EV sales will be greater than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2030, or even earlier. The automobile market appears to be moving toward a historical transformation, and exceptional investment gains can be made by anticipating new emerging industries and investing in the eventual winners of those new industries. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)are obvious examples. Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to create a new emerging industry.\nThere are also significant risks. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to be released in the next three years, which will drive rapid growth in EV sales. However, the expected sales from these new models, as well as the increasing expectations from Tesla, most likely exceed the total projected market. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the companies covered here won't exist five years from now. It reminds me of the internet bubble of the late 1990s when scores of internet-based companies went public with little or no revenue. Almost all of these failed within three years -- however, a couple, including Amazon, went on to enormous success.\nEVs provide a major new investment opportunity with high risks. To succeed, you need to have a clear EV investment roadmap.\nSo, how can you invest in this new emerging market? The EV landscape is complex and investment opportunities are varied. While Tesla is the unquestioned leader in EVs, some consider it overvalued and unlikely to show exceptional returns to new investors. The current U.S. legacy automakers are committed to introducing many new EVs in the next few years, and they have some entrenched advantages with volume manufacturing capabilities, a dealer infrastructure, and loyal customers. There are exciting new EV start-ups in the U.S. that have come public this year, mostly through Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), and there are several interesting publicly traded Chinese EV manufacturers.\nThis new roadmap for EV investment classifies companies into three primary markets segments:\n\nTheConsumer Retailsegment includes EVs sold to consumers individually, such as SUVs, pickup trucks, sedans, etc.\nTheCommercial Deliverysegment includes local delivery EV vans and trucks sold to fleets.\nTheMedium- and Long-Haul Truckingsegment includes heavier Class 4 - Class 8 trucks, as well as special industrial vehicles.\n\nIn addition, it categorizesLegacy ManufacturersandChinese EV Companies. This enables investors to evaluate investment opportunities by considering unique opportunities within each market segment.\nThere is an enormous amount of investment optimism for EVs, and retail investors have been aggressively buying into EV stocks with seemingly no regard for valuation. Then there is the additional challenge of valuing companies with no revenue, especially those coming public through SPACs. So, valuation is an important investment consideration.\nSo let's start by looking at an overview of comparative EV valuations.\nEV Investment Valuation Overview\nThe following chart summarizes valuations for 23 EV companies, including several legacy companies. For SPACs, market cap estimates are computed using the pro forma number of shares at closing, otherwise using the valuation of the SPAC prior to closing drastically underestimates the valuation, which may be misleading to novice investors. Price/Sales ratios (market cap divided by revenue) are used to compare valuations. As a benchmark, current P/S ratios vary. For example, auto and truck companies have a ratio of 2.7X. Software companies have the highest ratios of over 10X.\nIn the chart, companies that currently have revenue show current P/S ratios. Where projections are available, projected P/S ratios are computed. A note of caution, however. Many of the EV companies came public through SPACs and published their projections (which public companies cannot do), and many of these are likely to prove unrealistic.\nAll of the longer-term revenue projections come from the company (C) forecasts with a SPAC. Some of these may turn out to be accurate, not many are most likely unrealistic. Some, like Lucid, Faraday, and Arrival forecast hitting more than $10 billion in revenue in a few years, when it took Tesla more than 10. Things are different now and they might achieve these, but they could also find that it will take longer to complete development, ramp up production, and create enough customer demand. Many companies may also find that there will be significant capital requirements to achieve this type of growth, and shareholders will be diluted.\n\nTesla, the \"gold standard\" in EVs, has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, which many people believe is overvalued. Its market cap is approximately 20X 2020 revenue and 10X estimated 2022 revenue.\nTesla (TSLA)\nIn the U.S., and to a lesser extent in China, Tesla is the dominant EV provider. It has approximately 60% of the U.S. EV market and about 20% of the market in China. I own a Tesla and love it, but an investment in Tesla stock requires getting comfortable with its valuation. Tesla has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, although declining lately, which some consider still overvalued while others see upside potential.\nThe investment opportunity with Tesla is based on the expectation that it will continue to dominate the EV market, or at least maintain significant market share, despite much greater competition from the expected introduction of hundreds of new EV models in the next few years.\nThere is a great deal already published about Tesla, so I'll move on.\nLegacy Automakers\nSome people think that the legacy automakers will simply fade away. Historically, that was the case in some other industries, but it is not going to happen to most automakers. They are not standing still waiting to become obsolete. Most have aggressive strategies to replace ICE vehicles with EVs. GM plans to invest $27 billion and build and launch as many as 30 new EV models by 2025. Ford plans to invest $29 billion in EVs by 2025 and launch as many as 16 EVs in the next two years. Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY)has also committed billions to develop new EVs.\nThe competitive advantage that legacy automakers have in selling their new EVs is their dealer network. Will new EV customers prefer to continue going to their regular auto dealer to buy their new EV?\nAlmost all legacy automakers worldwide are developing and launching EVs including Volkswagen, Peugeot, Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi, Hyundai/Kia. Let's look a little more closely at GM and Ford as the leaders in the U.S.\nGeneral Motors (GM)\nGM has committed to introducing 20 new electric vehicles by 2023, including EVs across Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC, and Buick. It recently announced that it has already sold out the first-year production of its Hummer electric pickup. By mid-decade, it expects to sell a million EVs per year in its two largest markets: North America and China. As a reference point, Tesla reported deliveries of 367,500 vehicles globally in 2019.\nGM has a solid platform strategy for its EVs. It plans on building its EVs using five interchangeable drive units and three different motors from its Ultium Drive System platform. Ultium energy options range from 50 to 200 kWh, which could enable an estimated range of up to 400 miles. Most of its EVs will have 400-volt battery packs and up to 200 kW fast-charging capability while the truck platform will have 800-volt battery packs and 350 kW fast-charging capabilities.\nThe key building blocks of the Ultium battery system are large-scale, high-energy cells. Engineered in partnership with LG Energy Solutions, they use both advanced chemistry and a smart cell design that's optimized for a broad portfolio of EVs. GM engineers and scientists are actively researching and testing new elements in battery chemistry to lower costs and improve charge times. Ultium can contain either vertically- or horizontally-stacked cells to integrate into vehicle design: vertically for trucks, SUVs, and crossovers, or horizontally for cars and performance vehicles. As new chemistry is developed and becomes available, the battery management system could digitally update the modules.\nGM also has other EV opportunities with its BrightDrop commercial EV service and its Cruise subsidiary. BrightDrop will not just sell delivery EVs, it will provide an entire service platform for commercial delivery customers. Its set of electric delivery vehicles starts with the EV600 and includes the BrightDrop EP1, a pod-like electric pallet. SeeGeneral Motors' Aggressive EV/AV Strategies May Payoff Big.\nWith its highest stock price of $61.65, GM's current market cap is approximately $89 billion, increasing primarily because of its progress with EVs. This approximately 3X valuation in 2018, but still only 13% of Tesla.\nFord (F)\nFord is also investing heavily in EVs. It just introduced the Mustang Mach-E, a battery-powered crossover with sports car styling, and plans to introduce an all-electric version of its best-selling F-150 pickup later this year. Also, planned is an electric edition of the full-size Transit van, which has been popular in the commercial delivery market. Ford has confirmed plans to build a luxury Lincoln crossover on a battery-powered platform provided by Rivian. The automaker also plans to introduce two new midsize electric crossovers, one each for the Ford and Lincoln brands by 2023.\nMustang Mach-E. Source: Ford\nFord's market cap is approximately $51 billion, twice its previous market cap, and also increasing.\nConsumer Retail EV Companies\nThe consumer retail market has some unique characteristics for new EV companies. Sales are made individually, not in fleets. This diversifies the risk upon launch because only a sufficient number of customers need to be attracted to the new EV. A wave of popularity can provide terrific momentum.\nHowever, the lack of a dealer network can be an impediment. Selling EVs directly to consumers instead of through dealers is prohibited in most states. By law, auto manufacturers can't compete with franchised dealers. These are laws that go back many decades to protect dealers. This can be a major impediment for new companies without established independent dealer franchises. So, new AV companies. like Tesla, need to sell their vehicles online. Tesla has successfully done this, but it took a lot of work and time. Lack of a dealer network also creates impediments in service.\nIn addition, over the next 4-5 years, autonomous capabilities will be increasingly important to luxury vehicles. This may prove to be a challenge to start-up EV companies because they can't afford to develop this technology.\nLet's look closer at the alternative consumer retail EV investments.\nLucid Motors (CCIV)\nLucid was founded in 2007 under the name Atieva and originally focused on building electric vehicle batteries and powertrains for other vehicle manufacturers. The company rebranded itself as Lucid Motors in October 2016 and shifted its strategy to develop an all-electric, high-performance, luxury vehicle. Shortly after that, it encountered financial difficulties and struggled to get short-term funding. In 2018 it raised more than $1 billion in investment, primarily from Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund, and gave up a majority of the company.\nLucid Motors reached an agreement to become a publicly-traded company through a merger with the SPAC Churchill Capital IV Corp., in one of the largest deals SPAC EV deals. The combined company, in which Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund will continue to be the largest shareholder, had a transaction equity value of $11.75 billion (for $10/share). At the same time, it closed a PIPE investment priced at $15 a share, giving it an implied pro forma equity value of $24 billion. Rumors about this deal circulated before the transaction was formally announced, making it one of the most anticipated SPAC deals. The hype and speculation drove up the stock price of Churchill Capital IV Corp. from its opening price of $10 a share to almost $60. I believe that some of this may have been driven by novice SPAC investors who didn't realize that the valuation of CCIV didn't include the eventual valuation of Lucid. The share price dropped more than 30% after the details of the deal were announced. It's also likely that Lucid renegotiated the terms of the merger based on the price jump.\nThe company's first product is the Lucid Air, a well-equipped luxury electric vehicle that features 406 miles of projected range and 480 horsepower with a starting price of $77,400, or $69,900 after the U.S. Federal Tax Credit of $7,500. This new Lucid Air model is positioned as a high-performance, ultra-efficient luxury EV sedan in a line of future vehicles that are expected to include Lucid Air Touring, Grand Touring, and Dream Edition versions.\nThe company plans to begin production and deliveries of the Lucid Air in North America in the second half of 2021. Previously the company aimed to begin deliveries earlier in 2021. It intends to sell the car in Europe in 2022, followed by China in 2023. Lucid vehicles will be produced at its new factory in Casa Grande, Arizona. The company plans to expand the factory in phases in the coming years to have the capacity to produce 365,000 units per year at scale. The initial phase of the $700 million factory construction was completed late last year and will have the capacity to produce 30,000 vehicles a year.\nLucid also apparently has a commitment to build an assembly plant in Saudi Arabia, which was rumored to be a condition of the $1 billion investment from the Saudi public fund. The Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund also provided $600 million in bridge financing and invested in the SPAC deal as well. So, while this assembly plant may be expensive and may not be critical, it will most likely need to happen.\nLucid has ambitious plans to achieve $14 billion in revenue in 2025, and its current stock price at $29.17, which gives it a market cap of more than $46 billion, may already reflect those ambitions. Its market cap is roughly the same as Ford.\nFisker (FSR)\nFisker, which had its origins with Fisker Automotive, is an interesting story that ended in bankruptcy. Henrik Fisker originally co-founded Fisker Automotive in 2007. He was responsible for designing many premium cars such as the Aston Martin. Subsequently, Fisker Automotive had to deal with a Tesla lawsuit against Fisker Automotive alleging it stole Tesla's technology, a controversial $528.7 million conditional loan from the Department of Energy, a recall of its battery produced by A123, and the loss of several hundred vehicles in hurricane Sandy. Henrik Fisker resigned in March 2013 because of disagreements over business strategy and in November 2013, Fisker filed its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case.\nHowever, Henrik Fisker retained the Fisker brand and trademarks, and in 2016 he started another electric vehicle company named Fisker Inc. with the Fisker brand and trademarks. In 2019, Fisker shifted from developing a sports car with a solid-state battery to the Ocean SUV featuring a lithium-ion battery, which it later abandoned for a solid-state battery.\nFisker is positioning itself in a unique segment for those who want the most environmentally friendly EV. While this may be an early growth segment for EVs, it's difficult to estimate its eventual competitive advantage and the size of this environmentally-friendly market segment.\nThe Ocean is a crossover made of recycled metal and plastic with an expected base price of $37,499, and an expected lease of less than $400 a month. Fisker's plan is essentially a lease-only business model that lets customers keep a vehicle for years or return it at any time. It aims to source motors, batteries, and other components from technical partnerships with automakers and will outsource production from existing auto plants. Fisker is currently taking reservations at $250 for the Ocean. It also announced an agreement with Foxconn to jointly develop a vehicle pioneering a new market segment to be sold globally under the Fisker brand commencing in Q4 2023. at the end of 2022. Production will start at Magna Steyr's manufacturing facilities in Europe. At the end of February 2021, it had 12,467 cancellable reservations.\nFisker Ocean. Source: Fisker\nFisker went public using a SPAC (Spartan Energy). The original combination with SPAQ in October 2020 was valued at $2.9 billion with a cash investment of approximately $1 billion. The stock currently trades at approximately $21 per share, after reaching a high of $28.50, from the original price of $10, which is a market cap of $4.6 billion. Fisker projects $3.3 billion in revenue in 2023. It had almost $1 billion in cash at the end of 2020 and expected to use almost half of this in 2021: $250 million on operating expenses and $250 million in capital investments. If the Ocean is delayed into 2023, Fisker risks missing its revenue objective and will potentially need additional cash to complete development and launch.\nFaraday Future (PSAC)\nFaraday Future was originally established in May 2014 by Chinese businessman Jia Yueting. It is headquartered in Los Angeles and has offices in Silicon Valley, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu. Faraday Future also had a turbulent history. In 2016, it struggled financially, and in 2017 some key executives departed over a dispute about financial issues. They later founded Canoo.\nIn December 2018 the company announced layoffs due to a cash crunch and financial troubles. The company's founder Jia Yueting filed for personal bankruptcy in the United States' federal court in Delaware on October 14, 2019. Following Jia's personal bankruptcy, he decided to step down from his role as CEO of Faraday Future in order to assume a new position as the Chief Product and User Officer. He was replaced as CEO by Carsten Breitfeld, the former CEO at rival electric vehicle startup Byton.\nSomehow, Faraday was able to raise $2.3 billion in private funding over 5 rounds from a variety of investors. In early 2018, it received $1.5 billion in funding from an undisclosed investor from Hong Kong.\nFaraday's flagship product offering will be the FF 91, featuring 1,050 HP, 0-60 mph in less than 2.4 seconds, zero gravity seats with the largest 60-degree reclining angles, and a user experience designed to create a mobile, connected, and luxurious living space. The FF 91 is targeted to launch in 2022.\nFF 91. Source: Faraday Future\nIts strategic partners include one of China's top three OEMs and a critical Chinese city, which the company believes will help establish its presence in the Chinese vehicle market.\nFaraday Future plans several cars based on its Variable Platform Architecture. FF 91 is the first production vehicle and flagship model. Pricing will range between $120,000 and upwards of $200,000, which places it against formidable opponents. Faraday Future is already looking forward to expanding its range with a pair of smaller models named FF 81 and FF 71. The FF 81 is planned to be priced at $75,000 to 95,000 with a 2023 release. The FF 71 is planned to be priced at $45,000 to $65,000 with a planned release of 2024.\nThe Primary Manufacturing Facility for FF 91 is in Hanford, CA with contract manufacturing for future models in Gunsan, South Korea.\nFaraday Future is planning high-Level automation with a Level-3 capable system using a redundant safety architecture based on NVIDIA Xavier System-on-a-chip. It will be capable of highway auto-drive and hardware ready for advanced auto-drive. It is targeting full autonomous valet parking & summon in any parking lot or structure. Eventually, it expects full auto-drive, including full 360˚ sensor coverage for advanced auto-drive & auto-park features.\nIn January 2021, Faraday Future announced that the company would go public through a reverse merger with the special purpose acquisition company Property Solutions Acquisition Corp. (PSAC). The combined company will be valued at $3.4 billion. Faraday Future is expected to set up contract manufacturing operations in China through their partnership with Geely. Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn is also expected to serve as an additional strategic partner.\nFaraday Future projects $10.5 billion in revenue in 2024 and $21.5 billion in 2025. Revenue is expected to start in 2022 with the delivery of 2,400 vehicles for $504 million. Most likely these projections could prove to be optimistic. At a current stock price of approximately $12.80, it has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nLordstown Motors (RIDE)\nLordstown Motors based in Lordstown, Ohio, was originally founded in 2018 by Steve Burns, the former CEO of Workhorse Group. The company licensed technology from Workhorse in return for royalties and a 10% ownership. Lordstown is named after the famous GM Lordstown manufacturing plant, which it acquired in November 2019 in an unusual transaction. GM announced that it was closing the plant and was under a great deal of pressure for that decision. So, GM \"sold\" the plant to a company that was renamed Lordstown for an estimated $20 million that it loaned to the acquiring company. Subsequently, the sale was redefined to be part of a $75 million investment by GM, of which $50 million was an in-kind exchange for the plant.\nLordstown went public through the SPAC DiamondPeak Holdings Corp. in 2020. It currently has more than 400 employees.\nIts first product is the Lordstown Endurance, a full-sized EV pickup truck. Lordstown is positioning Endurance for the pickup fleet market segment. The expected price is $52,000+, and it claimed to have more than 100,000 pre-orders by January 2021. However, a recent research article published by a short seller claimed \"Our research has revealed that Lordstown's order book consists of fake or entirely non-binding orders, from customers that generally do not even have fleets of vehicles.\" Lordstown is disputing that article.\nIt believes the fleet pickup market segment is underserved with no current EV-focused competition. It estimates that the full-sized pick-up truck fleet market is 1.2 million vehicles per year in the U.S., but it's more fragmented than other truck fleets. Pickup \"fleets\" tend to be much smaller and local, so there may not be much of a market distinction for a small company buying several EV pickups from a traditional auto dealer. About half of the total U.S. pickup market is classified as fleet sales, meaning more than one.\nEven though Lordstown is targeting the commercial fleet market, it is a similar product to the Ford EV F-150. So I classify it in the consumer EV category. It is a class 2 vehicle. Lordstown also may enter the SUV market in the longer-term.\nThe Endurance will compete against future models from Rivian and Tesla, as well as Ford and GM in ICE pick-ups and their upcoming EV pick-ups. Ford plans on selling its EV F-150 in mid-2022. Initial production of the Endurance is expected in the second half of 2021, so it may have a short market advantage. Nevertheless, it forecasts selling 65,000 vehicles in 2023 and 107,000 in 2024. These estimates could be a large percentage of the EV pick-up market in those years.\nAt the SPAC merger, the implied valuation for Lordstown was $1.6 billion, including a $500 million PIPE and the $75 million by GM. Lordstown's financial projections appear to be aggressive. It projects to start shipping the Endurance in late 2021 with projected revenue in 2022 of $1.7 billion, increasing to $5.8 billion in 2024. Its stock price at approximately $13.60 values the company at a market cap of approximately $2.2 billion. The value of the company depends on the likelihood of achieving its projections.\nA fleet sales strategy makes sense for Lordstown since it would be too expensive to build a retail sales and service capability. However, it's not clear that this will become a distinct competitive advantage. Some small fleets may still prefer to buy their EV pickups from established local dealers with service capabilities.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nCanoo started as Evelozcity in 2017 and rebranded as Canoo in the spring of 2019. Canoo is a Los Angeles-based company that develops electric vehicles. It has over 350 employees. Canoo has designed a modular electric platform purpose-built to deliver maximum vehicle interior space, which is adaptable to support a wide range of vehicle applications for consumers and businesses. Canoo expects to launch its first consumer model in 2022, simply named the Canoo that will be available by subscription, followed shortly after by a multi-purpose delivery vehicle and a sports vehicle, each built off of the same underlying platform. Canoo went public using a SPAC (Hennessy Capital Acquisition) and now trades as GOEV.\nCanoo's all-electric skateboard-like platform is designed to support both consumer retail and commercial vehicle configurations. The EV leverages Canoo's flat skateboard architecture for a high level of usable interior space. Its commercial vehicle program, expected in 2023, addresses a projected $50B+ last-mile delivery market with an EV platform that maximizes cargo volume.\nHyundai Motor Group said it would jointly develop an electric vehicle platform with the company.\nCanoo's platform strategy is interesting. It could be used as an EV platform for custom fleets of delivery vehicles. It has no AV development, but it claims to be \"AV Ready\" which could be useful for AV companies wanting to build custom AV delivery fleets.\nIts all-electric multi-purpose delivery vehicle is expected to be priced starting at approximately $33,000. It is based on Canoo's proprietary electric platform and will be offered in two initial size variants, with others to follow. Limited availability will begin in 2022, with scaled production and launch planned for 2023. Customers can pre-order the multi-purpose delivery vehicle for a refundable deposit of $100 per vehicle\nIt plans to offer two multi-purpose delivery vehicles: the MPDV1 and the larger MPDV2. The first has a 200-foot cargo volume and a range of 130-200 miles. It offers more capacity than today's ICE delivery vehicles at an affordable price with urban mobility enabled by a space-efficient footprint. The vehicle is also designed to fit within many height-restricted areas like parking garages.\nThe MPDV2 has a cargo volume of 450 feet and a range of 90-190 miles. Its roof and step-in height enable individuals to easily walk-in the vehicle and accommodate a standing position while inside.\nThe original SPAC transaction provided approximately $600 million, with a pro forma equity value of approximately $2.4 billion. Like other SPAC mergers, its stock price has fluctuated. It currently trades at about $15.90 per share for a market cap of approximately $3.7 billion. Canoo projects $2.0 billion in revenue in 2025 from about $500 million in engineering services, $1.2 billion from its consumer vehicle subscriptions, and the remainder from its commercial program. Canoo expects revenue of more than $300 million in 2022 after the launch of its lifestyle consumer vehicle.\nSince its first products are aimed at consumers, as is most of its forecasted 2025 revenue, I categorize it primarily as a consumer EV company. However, I think the design of that Canoo vehicle may not attract enough customers. More importantly, its subscription service way of selling its EV to consumers is risky. I think it has more potential in the commercial market, however, a dual strategy (consumer and commercial) is challenging. I like its skateboard platform design and that could prove to be a competitive advantage.\nRivian\nAlthough not yet public, I include Rivian because it has plans for an IPO as soon as Sept 2021, although it could slip into 2022. There are rumors that the company is targeting a market valuation of approximately $50B. Rivian has already raised more than $8 billion to date from Amazon, Ford, T. Rowe Price, and others.\nRivian has developed and vertically integrated a connected electric platform that can be flexibly applied to a range of applications, including the company's adventure products, as well as B2B products such as the Amazon last-mile delivery vans. The company's initial products, the R1T and R1S, provide a combination of performance, off-road capability, and utility. These vehicles will be produced at Rivian's manufacturing plant in Normal, Ill., with customer deliveries expected to begin in summer 2021. The launch of the R1S three-row electric SUV will follow in August.\nAdditional lower-priced models are being planned. The expected R2 series would include at least two smaller electric vehicles to coincide with the smaller platform, then another platform for R3.\nCommercial Delivery EV Companies\nEV truck companies differ based on the type of truck they are developing. The technology and markets are very different, so I separate them into two categories. The first category includes commercial delivery vehicles.\nCompanies making EV delivery vehicles have some major advantages that could make them good investments. First, delivery vehicles typically travel less than 250 miles during a day, so they can be conveniently recharged overnight. Secondly, they are typically sold in large quantities to fleets. This means that building a retail sales infrastructure is not necessary. It only requires a small salesforce. In addition, maintenance can also be provided at the fleet's operational center, so not as many service centers are required.\nThe disadvantage in this market is that there are a relatively small number of customers that buy in large volumes, so if the EV manufacturer can't get enough large customers, they may not be able to stay in business. GM estimates the combined market opportunity for parcel and food delivery, as well as reverse logistics, in the U.S. will be more than $850 billion by 2025.\nThe commercial market is expected to be a major growth area for EVs. Other start-up automakers like Rivian as well as legacy automakers such as Ford, Daimler, and GM have announced plans to enter the segment. GM recently announced its BrightDrop ecosystem for commercial customers that includes an all-new electric delivery van, the EV600 available by the end of 2021, as well as an integrated autonomous pallet and related services.\nThis group of EV companies focuses primarily on commercial delivery. In general, these are in the light-duty trucks category, although it also includes some medium-duty trucks. This generally includes the following commercial truck classes:\n\nClass 1: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 0-6,000 pounds or 0-2,722 kilograms.\nClass 2: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 6,001-10,000 pounds or 2,722-4,536 kilograms.1\nClass 3: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 10,001-14,000 pounds or 4,536-6,350 kilograms.\n\nIt can also include somewhat larger medium-duty EV delivery trucks:\n\nClass 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.\nClass 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.\n\nEV delivery trucks also have an advantage over ICE vehicles because they can have a greater delivery storage space. Smaller buses and transit vehicles are also included in this category.\nLast-mile package delivery is not an immediate-term autonomous vehicle opportunity because it requires a delivery person to be on the truck anyway.\nWorkhorse Group (WKHS)\nWorkhorse has been a public company for ten years. Originally AMP Electric Vehicles, it was established in 2007 as a developmental-stage vehicle electrification company, focusing on conversions. AMP Electric Vehicles went public in 2010 trading on the OTC market under the AMPD symbol. When the economic benefits of conversion became less certain, it pivoted away from passenger vehicles and began to focus on electrifying commercial vehicles. AMP acquired the Workhorse brand and the Workhorse custom chassis assembly plant in Union City. In March of 2013, AMP formally changed its name to Workhorse Group Incorporated.\nThe Company designs and builds a last-mile delivery electric vehicle. The C-Series EVs cover the larger size of commercial delivery vehicles in Classes 3-5. As part of its solutions, it also develops cloud-based, real-time telematics performance monitoring systems. It sells its vehicles to fleet customers directly and through its primary distributor, Ryder Systems. It is currently focused on bringing the C-Series electric delivery truck to market and fulfilling the existing backlog of orders.\nThe C-Series looks like a viable EV replacement for the 350,000 last-mile delivery vehicles sold in the U.S. annually. It recently announced an increased driving range from 100 miles to 160, which should open more market opportunities. It has a viable short-term go-to-market strategy selling fleets to delivery companies. It currently has test vehicles with UPS, DHL, FedEx, Amazon, and Walmart.\nWorkhorse recently lost out on the United States Postal Services Next Generation Delivery Vehicle project, however, it is in the process of challenging this decision. Additionally, its investment in Lordstown also provides an indirect investment opportunity. On November 7, 2019, the Company entered a transaction with Lordstown Motors to grant LMC a perpetual and worldwide license to certain intellectual property relating to its W-15 electric pickup truck platform and related technology in exchange for royalties, equity interest (approximately 10%) in LMC, and other considerations. This was a $320 million asset for Workhorse at the end of 2020.\nWorkhorse received a significant increase in orders in Q4/2020 but built just seven trucks in the fourth quarter due to production systems and supply chain issues. Workhorse plans to continue to take it slow, striving to build three of its composite-body battery-electric trucks a day in March with a plan to reach 10 trucks a day by the end of June. This makes its original 2021 goal of producing 1,800 trucks unlikely. It partnered with Hitachi and Hitachi Capital America (\"HCA\") to improve the Company's manufacturing, operational, and supply chain capabilities as well as to develop a national dealer network to support Workhorse's sales with vehicle financing options for both dealers and customers.\nWorkhorse has a market cap of approximately $1.9 billion. While Workhorse had ongoing revenue, unlike many other new EV companies, its revenue is still insignificant. It had a revenue of $1.4 million in 2020 and $377,000 in 2019. It has a backlog of over 8,000 vehicles but doesn't expect to be able to build many of those in 2021. It raised $270 million in capital over several financings, providing the Company with additional capital to build its backlog. It had cash of $215 million as of March 1, 2021. Because Workhorse is a traditional public company, it hasn't made long-term financial projections like SPAC-based companies.\nElectric Last Mile (FIII)\nElectric Last Mile, based in Troy Michigan, was founded by Jason Luo, former CEO of Ford China before it was acquired by China's Ningbo Joyson Electronic for $920 million in 2016, including James Taylor, former CEO of GM's Hummer brand and former CEO of electric car maker Karma Automotive. Taylor serves as the company's top executive with Luo as the company's chairman.\nThe company plans to launch a small electric delivery van (class 1-2), called the UD-1, in the third quarter of 2021, and then introduce an Urban Utility vehicle (Class 2-3) in 2022. These are expected to compete with Workhorse, Rivian, Canoo, as well as the Ford eTransit and the GMC BV1, none of which is expected to be a Class 1 vehicle.\nThe company says it has 30,000 preorders for its van, representing more than $1 billion in sales. Electric Last Miles vehicles will be based on Sokon's commercial van made in China through a joint venture with Dongfeng Automobile Co Ltd. in order to accelerate development time.\nElectric Last Mile (ELM) is expected to manufacture the vans in a former General Motors Co. Hummer plant in Mishawaka, Ind., that the company is acquiring from China's Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co. Ltd. The plant has the capacity to produce 100,000 vehicles annually with plans to build approximately 4,000 UD-1 vans by the end of 2021. The UD-1 has a starting price of $32,500 and a range of 150 miles. The battery for the vehicle is expected to be supplied by the Chinese battery company CATL.\nELM believes that it has a competitive advantage because its first vehicle, the ELM Urban Delivery, is scheduled to be available in 2021. It is based on a proven, existing platform developed and sold by Sokon Group in the Asian market, where there are 30,000 of these electric delivery vehicles driving 1.5 million miles every day. At the close of the business combination, ELM will be an independent, U.S. company producing electric vehicles in the U.S. with Sokon Group providing access to its know-how, parts supply, and field and service data.\nELM expects that the Urban Delivery vehicle will be the first electric delivery vehicle coming to market in the class 1 category (GVW of 6,000 lbs or less) in the U.S. It will also have 35% more carrying volume compared to similar ICE delivery vehicles, a critical part of the value proposition. It also anticipates that its price and greater carrying volume will allow it to take market share from the class 2 category of vehicles as well.\nIts crossover product portfolio strategy targets commercial delivery vehicles spanning from class 1 to class 3, which represents over 80% of the last mile market.\nELM anticipates $122 million in revenue in 2021, rapidly increasing to $3 billion in 2025. The price of FIII stock increased immediately following its announcement with Electric Last Mile, rising more than 40% to $14.50, but now it has dropped closer to the original deal price to $10.25 for a market cap of approximately $1.5 billion.\nGreenPower Motor Company (GP)\nGreenPower Motor Company Inc. is a Canadian battery-electric bus manufacturer with multiple models of high- and low-floor vehicles, including transit buses, school buses, and shuttles. GreenPower offers commercial vehicles for delivery, public transit, schools, vanpooling, micro-transit, shuttles, and is developing a capability of autonomous operation. It went public on August 28, 2020.\nIn 2014 GreenPower launched its first purpose-built, battery-electric bus, the EV350, 40-foot transit bus. GreenPower received its first order in 2017 for ten EV350s from the City of Porterville, California.\nGreenPower's electric buses are purpose-built and designed to be all-electric, allowing it to put the battery and propulsion system in optimized locations that provide weight and structural advantages. Its primary EV is the EV Star with more than 120 vehicles delivered. It comes in several variations:\n\nEV Star - Up to 19 passengers\nEV Star Plus - Up to 24 passengers\nEV Star ADA - Passenger and curbside lift for ADA\nEV Star Cargo - 5,000 pounds of load\nEV Star Cargo Plus - 570 cubic feet of cargo space.\n\nIts EV school bus seats up to 90 students and has a range of up to 150 miles.\nGreenPower had revenue of $13.5 million in 2020 It has about $21 million in cash. It's an interesting alternative since it is already shipping EVs, has revenue, and also has a lower market cap of less than $1 billion. Since it did a traditional IPO, it hasn't published longer-term financial forecasts.\nArrival (CIIC)\nArrival was founded in 2015 in London to make a variety of commercial electric vehicles. It has approximately 1,200 employees across 11 cities in 8 countries. In November 2020, Arrival and the SPAC CIIG entered into a business combination agreement with an implied valuation of $5.39 billion.\nArrival plans on releasing four commercial EVs over the next few years.\n\nQ4/2021: An electric bus for 8-125 passengers and a range of 240-400km\nQ3/2022: An electric delivery van with a payload of 975-2,000kg and a range of 150-340km\n2022: A larger electric van with a payload of 4,000 kg and a range of 190-400km\n2023: a small vehicle platform with a range of 100-300km.\n\nThis mix provides a nice diversified portfolio of EVs. Arrival claims to have received orders from UPS for 10,000 vans. It plans a unique flexible manufacturing approach using micro-factories with each projected to manufacture 10,000 vans per year. All of its vehicles use a modular skateboard electric platform.\nArrival ambitiously projects $14.1 billion in revenue in 2024. Half of that revenue is expected from delivery vans, 22% from buses, and the rest from the large van and its small vehicle platform. With CIIC's stock price at $24.80 per share, Arrival's current market cap is relatively high at approximately $15.0 billion. Justifying its market cap depends on its ability to release, sell, and produce its four commercial EVs.\nProterra (ACTC)\nProterra is a commercial electric vehicle company with over a decade of production experience. The Company has designed an end-to-end, flexible technology platform that claims to deliver higher performance and a low total cost of ownership to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end customers.\nProterra, Inc., was originally founded in Golden, Colorado, by Dale Hill in 2004. Later the company wanted to take the lead in creating zero-emission, U.S.-based transit buses. In 2010 it moved its manufacturing plant from Golden, Colorado to Greenville, South Carolina. In 2015, Proterra was awarded a $3 million grant from the California Energy Commission to fund the design, development, and construction of the company's battery-electric transit bus manufacturing line in the City of Industry, California. It moved its headquarters from Greenville, South Carolina, to Burlingame, California, in October 2015. Proterra raised more than $600 million in funding.\nIt is going public through the SPAC ArcLight (ACTC) with a pro forma valuation of $1.6 billion. Upon completion of the transaction, Proterra expects to have up to $825 million in cash to fund growth initiatives, including R&D and the expansion of its next-generation battery program.\nProterra has three complementary businesses:\n\nProterra Powered: Delivering battery systems and electrification solutions to commercial vehicle manufacturers\nProterra Transit:Providing an electric transit bus OEMs\nProterra Energy:Offering turnkey charging and energy management solutions.\n\nThe company's battery systems have been proven in more than 16 million service miles driven by its fleet of transit vehicles and validated through partnerships with commercial vehicle OEMs. Proterra has produced and delivered more than 300 megawatt-hours of battery systems, more than 550 heavy-duty electric transit buses, and installed 54 megawatts of charging systems.\nProterra expected $193 million of revenue in 2020, with an estimated $750 million in existing orders and backlog. It projects $2.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with about 1/3 coming from its Transit business, and 2/3 From Powered & Energy. At ACTC's current stock price of $17.85, Proterra has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nRivian\nRivian (see earlier description in consumer retail) will also compete in the commercial delivery market. It has been working with Amazon (a major investor) to build large electric delivery vans for Prime. Developed specifically for Amazon, a small fleet of Prime vans is on the road now, testing deliveries to customers and gathering feedback. In late fall, it could grow to a large fleet as Rivian ramps up the volume.\nThe EV range of 150 miles is tailored to Amazon's use cycle to optimize the size, weight, and cost of the commercial vehicle. Rivian has three sizes of batteries, but Amazon is starting with just one of them.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nSee the previous summary under consumer retail EV.\nMedium and Long-Haul Trucking EV Companies\nCompanies developing medium- and long-haul EV trucks face a more difficult challenge with battery range. These trucks haul much more weight than commercial delivery vehicles and because they are designed for long distances, they can't stop every 200-300 miles for recharging.\nFor this reason, many of these companies are using unique hybrid technologies for their trucks. The EV trucks in this category are primarily heavy-duty but also include some medium-duty trucks and specialty vehicles. A couple of the companies focus on retrofitting trucks to be electric.\nMedium-Duty Trucks\nThe medium-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 4, 5, and 6:\n\nClass 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.\nClass 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.\nClass 6: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 19,501-26,000 pounds or 8,846-11,793 kilograms.1\n\nHeavy-Duty Trucks\nThe heavy-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 7 and 8:\n\nClass 7: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 26,001 to 33,000 pounds or 11,794-14,969 kilograms.\nClass 8: This class of trucks has a GVWR of greater than 33,001 pounds or 14,969 kilograms and includes all tractor-trailers.\n\nThe Tesla Semi is a battery vehicle planned for a range of 300 or 500 miles and a speed of 60 MPH with 80,000 lbs of cargo. Tesla plans to start shipping the Semi later this year when it expects to have sufficient cell volume to meet its needs with the production of its 4680 battery pack.\nNikola(NASDAQ:NKLA)\nNikola has been a very controversial company. Founded in 2015, it originally had two different strategies. Its primary strategy is to lease fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) Class-8 heavy trucks and provide the refueling infrastructure to corporate customers. Its second strategy was to develop the Badger EV truck using GM technology.\nNikola originally merged with a SPAC to go public, at an enterprise value of approximately $3.3 billion. On June 6th, 2020, its market cap jumped to more than $30 billion, then later it dropped because of problems with its originally planned deal with GM.\nNikola originally expected a deal with General Motors that included the production of the Nikola Badger EV pickup truck. The proposed arrangement was that GM would take a $2 billion equity stake in Nikola and in return would engineer and produce the Badger. In November 2020, GM and Nikola scrapped the original arrangement. Now it appears that GM will supply Nikola with only its Hydrotec hydrogen fuel-cell technology to integrate into the EV manufacturer's commercial class 7 and class 8 zero-emission semi-trucks. So, the Badger is probably dead.\nNikola now sees semi-trucks as the company's \"core business\" and fuel cells as an increasingly important segment of the semi-truck market thanks to their efficiency in weight and consumption. It expects to begin testing by the end of 2021.\nIt has received pre-orders from Anheuser-Busch and a few other companies, but it doesn't expect deliveries until 2023. Hydrogen fueling stations are key to its strategy, both providing a source of revenue and necessary fueling infrastructure for the trucks to operate, but they also cost a lot. In its March 2020 investor deck, Nikola said a single station capable of fueling 210 trucks a day would cost $16.6 million. Its initial planned network of 700 stations would cost roughly $11.6 billion.\nNikola was also accused of misrepresentation, and its executive chairman and founder stepped down.\nAt the time of the SPAC merger, it projected an optimistic forecast of more than $3 billion in revenue by 2024, with a net income of $145 million. Most of that revenue was expected to come from its Badger truck, which is no longer in the plans. Yet its market cap is still almost $6 billion.\nHyliion (HYLN)\nHyliion, founded in 2015 in Austin, went public in October 2020 through the SPAC Tortoise Acquisition Corp. (SHLL). In March 2019, automotive parts manufacturer Dana Inc. made an equity investment into Hyliion, and together they are manufacturing and marketing Class 8 EVs to Dana's customers, including Volvo, Navistar, and Peterbilt.\nHyliion's strategy is unique, and a very different strategy from Nikola. Essentially it generates electricity onboard the truck using compressed natural gas (CNG). This should be a benefit for longer-range trucking. Hyliion's Hypertruck concept involves an all-electric drivetrain utilizing Dana's electric motor, inverter, and axle technologies. The truck's batteries are fueled by onboard tanks of CNG. With some 700 CNG stations already operating nationwide, it believes that there no need to build out expensive superchargers or hydrogen infrastructure.\nKuwait-based logistics company, Agility, has already placed an order for 1,000 Hypertrucks with initial deliveries targeted in 2022. Combined with a fully electric drivetrain and a natural gas-powered onboard generator to recharge the battery, the Hypertruck ERX will provide more than 1,000 miles of range.\nHyliion will eventually compete with Nikola (FCEV) and the Tesla battery-based Semi, but it plans to have a longer range and lower operating costs. Its HyperTruck ERX is expected to be available in 2021. It also has a hybrid-electric truck.\nThe combination with SHLL had an estimated market cap of about $1.5 billion, with approximately $530 million going to the company, including a $325 million fully committed PIPE. At approximately $13.50 per share, its current market cap is approximately $2.2 billion, significantly down from its peak. Hyliion projects $2 billion in revenue in 2024, which it claims is only about 2% of the addressable market.\nXL Fleet (XL)\nXL Fleet is a 10-year old company that went public through the SPAC Pivotal. XL is different because it provides fleet electrification modifications for ICE trucks across a wide range of vehicle classes (class 2-5) and types. It has over 200 of the largest commercial and municipal fleets as customers, with more than 3,200 XL systems deployed and over 130 million miles driven by customers to date. XL's customer base includes FedEx, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Verizon, the City of Boston, Seattle Fire Department, Yale University, and Harvard University.\nXL's business model is essentially retrofitting existing trucks to be hybrids and then later expanding into fully electric truck conversions. It claims to be creating a fully integrated platform for this. It remains to be seen if the retrofitting business will continue to grow or will it diminish when more trucks are designed and manufactured with EV capabilities.\nUnlike some other EV companies that have no revenue yet because they are still developing products, XL is more of a small company doing low-volume retrofits. It had $7.2 million in revenue in 2019, $21 million in 2020, and estimates $76 million in 2021, but it forecasts $1.3 billion in revenue in 2024 in its investor presentation. It plans to do this by expanding its product line from hybrid to plug-in hybrid to fully electric across a broader range of trucks. It claims to have a $220 million sales pipeline for the next 12 months.\nShort-seller, Muddy Waters, claimed after talking to former XL Fleet employees, that it believed the company significantly exaggerated its order backlog, that the return on investment for the company's products was likely negative, and that it would not be able to compete with big car makers on electrification. The company thoroughly refuted these claims.\nThe original enterprise valuation was approximately $1.4 billion at a $10 share price for the merger. Its price jumped by about 35% but has since gone back down to $12.40 for a market cap of about $1.8 billion. Although XL Fleet has revenue and other EV companies don't, this may not be an advantage. It appears to be a small company for many years that has gone public at a high valuation with grand plans. The risks are in its ability to make a jump from $76 million in 2021 to $1.3 billion in 2024, as well as the question about retrofitting being replaced by new EV trucks by then.\nXos (NGAC)\nXos Trucks specializes in the field of manufacturing fully electric commercial vehicles. It features a software platform that is designed to accommodate an extensive variety of medium-duty bodies, wheelbase, and range requirements up to 200 miles. It was founded in 2016 and headquartered in North Hollywood, California. It received $20 million of investment in 2020 and now is going public through a merger with the SPAC ExtGen Acquisition Corporation (NGAC) at an estimated proforma value of $1.965 billion.\nIts focus is on medium- and heavy-duty last mile and return-to-base segments (class 5/6, class 6/7, and class 7/8) commercial fleets and specialty vehicles. Some vehicles are currently in production and in regular on-road operations with key fleet customers, and it claimed 6,000 unit orders in backlog.\nIts MD-platform is for classes 5-6 for pickup and delivery. Its HD X-Platform is an adaptable chassis for highway, vocational, and severe work conditions. Its market is for customers with highly predictable routes that allow for batteries designed for a more limited range. A significantly larger frame and smaller battery pack allow for reduced density.\nXos has a bundled all-in-one offering that allows fleets to access all the tools and services they need to go electric with a single point of contact at a fixed monthly expense.\nXos had $3 million in revenue in 2020 and estimates $14 million in 2021. However, it forecasts $5.2 billion in revenue in 2025. At the current stock price of $10.30, its market cap is approximately $2 billion, about the same as its original SPAC transaction.\nLion Electric (NGA)\nLion Electric is a Canadian company founded by Marc Bédard in 2008. Its focus is to be a leader in designing, developing, and manufacturing purpose-built urban electric vehicles; vehicles that are specifically designed as delivery trucks, refuse trucks, bucket trucks, moving trucks, school buses, and shuttle buses. It has over 300 all-electric vehicles on the road today.\nIn November 2020, it announced that it was going public through the SPAC NGA. The transaction had an estimated pro forma enterprise value of $1.5 billion.\nIt plans on seven new truck models and one new school bus, for a total of 15 all-electric vehicles, representing a full line-up from class 5 to class 8 electric trucks and a full line-up of electric school buses. Its vehicles are produced at its existing manufacturing plant, which has the capacity for the production of up to 2,500 vehicles per year. It intends to open a new plant in the U.S. capable of delivering over 20,000 Lion trucks and buses per year by 2022.\nIts all-electric class 6 and class 8 commercial urban trucks combine power, comfort, and modern technology. Custom-built chassis and cabin designed specifically for an all-electric heavy-duty vehicle. The LionC is an all-electric Type C school bus manufactured in North America. The body and chassis were specifically designed to deliver optimal performance. The LionM is an all-electric midi/minibus that meets paratransit and public transportation requirements. Created and designed specifically for the paratransit market, the is spacious and offers unique features that provide enhanced security and accessibility to the end-users.\nLion Electric had $29 million in revenue in 2020 and expects $204 million in 2021. It forecasts revenue to jump to $3.6 billion a few years later in 2024. Its current market cap is approximately $3.6 billion based on its current stock price of $18.33.\nLightning eMotors (GIK)\nLightning eMotors, formerly Lightning Systems, was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Loveland, Colorado. It provides fleet electrification for familiar commercial vehicle platforms by retrofitting them with its electric powertrains. Lightning eMotors produces electric fleet medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including delivery trucks, shuttle buses, passenger vans, ambulances, bucket trucks, chassis-cab models, and city transit buses. It focuses on urban commercial zero-emission vehicles with a full range of class 3 through class 7 battery-electric and fuel-cell electric vehicles.\nLighting eMotors helps commercial fleets achieve their sustainability goals by offering zero-emission battery-electric vans, trucks, and buses based on familiar, proven vehicles from manufacturers such as Ford and GM. It works with customers, to help them identify their unique commercial electric vehicle, charging, and grant support needs.\nThe Lightning products include integrated all-electric powertrains for the Ford Transit 350HD passenger and cargo vans, Ford E-450 shuttle bus and cutaway models, Ford F-59 step/food van, Ford F-550 cargo trucks and buses, Chevrolet 6500XD Low Cab Forward model, and 30-foot, 35-foot, and 40-foot transit buses.\nLightning has 120 vehicles on the road, and 1,500 vehicles already on order from customers. In addition to making vehicles and powertrains, Lightning also provides a full suite of charging solutions for customers.\nThe deal with GIK has an enterprise value of $650 million, although there is also an Earnout of 20.0% of total pro forma shares outstanding to Lightning eMotors shareholders if the stock crosses certain price thresholds.\nAt the current price, of $11.73, GIK has a market cap of approximately $1 billion, a little more than the original transaction valuation. Similar to XL Fleet, Lightning has the risk that retrofitting may only be an interim business opportunity until more EV trucks are produced.\nPublic Chinese EV Companies\nChina will be the biggest EV market opportunity, and EV start-ups may do better there because there isn't as much entrenched competition from domestic auto companies. China is already the largest EV market in the world, with almost a million EVs sold in 2019. Its EV market represents almost half of the global EV sales volume and is much larger than the U.S. market.\nThe Chinese government has ambitions to become a global leader in new energy vehicles. Soon after the coronavirus outbreak subsided within the country, Chinese authorities announced new policies to support the auto and electric vehicle industries.\nThese Chinese companies are traded through American depository shares (ADS) that contain certain risks. There are financial reporting and transparency risks with these companies, and on top of that, the newer companies are being classified as \"emerging growth\" companies that are already exempt from certain transparency requirements set out in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Like the previous EV stock, these stocks have also been very volatile.\nIn addition to legacy auto manufacturers like BYD, there are also three Chinese EV companies that are publicly traded through American depositary shares.\nBYD Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:BYDDY)\nBYD, which means build your dreams, is the automotive subsidiary of the Chinese multinational BYD Co Ltd. It was founded in January 2003, following BYD Company's acquisition of Tsinchuan Automobile Company. The company produces automobiles, buses, electric bicycles, forklifts, rechargeable batteries, and trucks. The current model range of automobiles includes electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and petrol-engined vehicles. Thirteen years ago, on the advice of his famously skeptical lieutenant, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett made a $232 million investment in BYD, a relatively unknown Chinese car company.\nBy parlaying BYD's rechargeable battery technology into a fast-growing carmaking operation, it gained a foothold in the fledgling electric vehicle market, building longer-lasting batteries and cheaper vehicles than American and Japanese manufacturers were managing to do at the time. In BYD, Buffett and Munger believed they had found a company with a shot at one day becoming the largest player in a global automobile market that was inevitably going electric.\nBYD's start to 2021 was strong with 19,871 plug-in electric cars sold in January in China, including hybrid plug-ins. That was a big increase over 2020 but not as much as 2019.\nLI Auto (LI)\nLixiang, formerly known as Chehejia (\"Car and Home\"), was founded in 2015 and went public in the U.S. on July 30th, 2020. It is a Beijing-based electric-vehicle startup with vertically integrated manufacturing. It designs, researches, manufactures, sells, and offers services featuring a few models of electric vehicles.\nThe company's SUVs are hybrids of a sort. They use electric motors (one on the front axle and one on the rear), but those motors are powered by a combination of a 40.5kWh battery packanda 1.2-liter turbocharged engine paired to a 45-liter fuel tank and a 100kW electric generator, which generates power for the battery pack in real-time. The idea is that the car can be driven for about 100 miles on battery power alone, but it has a total range of nearly 500 miles when leveraging the combustion engine generator.\nThe Company's primary product is an SUV under its brand Li ONE. It also sells peripheral products and provides related services, such as charging stalls, vehicle internet connection services, and extended lifetime warranties. Li Auto is looking to sell a variety of SUVs built on its hybrid technology that range from around $21,000 to about $70,000. The company started shipping its first model in late 2019. It's a midsize SUV is well-appointed and has lots of touchscreens and technology. A full-size premium version is planned for release in 2022.\nDeliveries of Li ONEs were 14,464 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a 67.0% quarter-over-quarter increase and setting a new quarterly record. Deliveries for the full year 2020 reached 32,624 vehicles. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $635 million.\nLI auto went public on July 30th, 2020, raising $1.1 billion at an initial price of $15.50 per share but quickly reached almost $24. It is currently valued at approximately $37 billion at a price of approximately $25.72 per share.\nXPeng (XPEV)\nXiaopeng (XPeng) Motors is a Chinese electric vehicle and technology company that designs and manufactures smart cars. It was founded in 2015 and went public on August 27, 2020, using American depository shares, raising about $1 billion. To date, it has raised about $2.6 billion.\nXPeng aims its EVs at technology-savvy middle-class Chinese consumers, with prices ranging from $22,000 to $45,000 after government subsidies. In some ways, it is a Tesla knock-off at a much lower price. XPeng started production of the G3 in November 2018, and as of July 31, 2020, delivered 18,741. It started production of the P7 and began delivery in May 2020, and as of July 31, 2020, it had delivered 1,966 EVs. The P7 has a range of more than 400 miles. It plans to launch a third Smart EV, a sedan, in 2021. The G3 was among the top-three best-selling electric SUVs in China in 2019.\nXPeng is interesting because it has a platform strategy and is moving aggressively into autonomous driving. It uses a platform strategy to expand product offerings by launching one Smart EV model each year to broaden the addressable market. It builds new models on two highly flexible Smart EV platforms, called David and Edward, respectively. The David platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,600 millimeters to 2,800 millimeters, and the Edward platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,800 millimeters to 3,100 millimeters. It also adopted a platform approach for software systems.\nXPeng claims to be developing an autonomous driving capability for its EVs. The P7 is the first production vehicle to feature the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Xavier system-on-a-chip (SoC) autonomous driving platform. The company's Smart Electric Platform Architecture (SEPA) runs on 2 chips - NVIDIA for the XPILOT and Qualcomm's Snapdragon™ 820A for intelligent services and infotainment, including cameras inside and outside, radars, HD-map, and ultrasonic sensors. Like Tesla, it claims it can create sufficiently-autonomous driving without lidar.\nTo enhance brand recognition and allow more people to experience its Smart EVs, it deployed a small number of Smart EVs in a ride-hailing service in Guangzhou on a trial basis, but it has no current plan to scale up a ride-hailing service.\nXpeng sees first-quarter 2021 deliveries rising 450% year-over-year to 12,500 vehicles. Revenues are expected to increase 533% from a year ago. The company didn't provide bottom-line estimates for the quarter, but will likely post another net loss as it ramps up manufacturing, invests in R&D, and builds out a new manufacturing plant set to open in 2022.\nXpeng reported selling 12,964 vehicles in Q4 2020, up 303% from a year ago. It delivered a total of 27,041 vehicles in 2020, up 112%. It makes the P7 sedan, a rival to the made-in-China Tesla Model 3, and the small G3 SUV.\nThe stock opened on August 27, 2020 at a price of $15 and a valuation of $11 billion, but its stock jumped more than 40% shortly after. Its current valuation is about $35 billion at a stock price of approximately $36.13 per share. It had about $300 million in revenue in 2019 with a loss of about $500 million.\nNio (NIO)\nUnlike previous companies, Nio has been a public company for some time. It originally went public in the U.S. back in September of 2018, selling IPO shares at $6.26 and raising $1 billion.\nNio's IPO was far from smooth. After going public at $6.26 per share, it traded down to nearly $1. Then in the middle of the coronavirus outbreak, Nio received a much-needed investment of $1 billion from investors, including state-backed entities.\nNio designs, jointly manufactures, and sells smart and connected premium electric vehicles, attempting to develop next-generation technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving, and artificial intelligence. Joint manufacturing means that it uses a state-owned contract manufacturer to build its cars.\nNio plans to provide customers with comprehensive, convenient, and innovative charging solutions and other user-centric services. It began deliveries of the ES8, a 7-seater high-performance premium electric SUV in China in June 2018, and its variant, the six-seater ES8, in March 2019. Nio officially launched the ES6, a 5-seater high-performance premium electric SUV, in December 2018 and began deliveries in June 2019. It officially launched the EC6, a 5-seater smart premium electric Coupe SUV, in December 2019 with deliveries in 2020.\nNio sold 17,353 EVs in Q4/2020 and 43,728 for the year. It warned a shortage in chips and batteries will force a production slowdown to 7,500 a month in Q2 from 10,000 vehicles a month in February.\nNio currently trades at more than $43 per share, including a big jump recently, for a valuation of approximately $48 billion. It had revenue of $2.3 billion in 2019 for a loss of $3.8 billion.\nSummary\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this should provide exciting new investment opportunities. However, the investment terrain is complex. There are dozens of new start-ups where the public can now invest that were previously exclusively venture capital investment opportunities. Many of these are following different roads to success. There are legacy auto manufacturers that could prosper or get destroyed in this transition. There are some exciting new EV company opportunities in China. And then there is Tesla.\nThis EV roadmap is intended to help investors explore different roads to investment by explaining the basic strategies for these EV companies. These roads can have different opportunities and risks, and the roadmap helps to frame these. Above all, valuation is an overriding risk that is highlighted throughout this article.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":353891602,"gmtCreate":1616476902606,"gmtModify":1704794595200,"author":{"id":"3552212780175300","authorId":"3552212780175300","name":"NanOo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82b046b3affde9b82c0ef3e72438182c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3552212780175300","authorIdStr":"3552212780175300"},"htmlText":"Tesla is the king but too much cash need to buy 100 share..i think i will buy F, 100 share and just leave it&nbsp;","listText":"Tesla is the king but too much cash need to buy 100 share..i think i will buy F, 100 share and just leave it&nbsp;","text":"Tesla is the king but too much cash need to buy 100 share..i think i will buy F, 100 share and just leave it","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353891602","repostId":1196402560,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1196402560","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616134696,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196402560?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-19 14:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"New Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196402560","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, an","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>It's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.</li>\n <li>Last October, I wrote a popular article providing a roadmap for investing in electric vehicles, but since then, so much has changed: new entrants, new strategies, fluctuating valuations, etc.</li>\n <li>So, I updated and greatly expanded the previous EV investment roadmap.</li>\n <li>This update includes a deeper look at valuations for 23 EV companies with revenue projections, when available.</li>\n <li>It also classifies these EV companies into their primary market categories and summarizes their different strategies.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb96acc615cba9c7842860658c019ab1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\">Photo by Sven Loeffler/iStock via Getty Images\nMy article&nbsp;Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap&nbsp;published five months ago, was popular, and some followers have requested an update. Many new EV companies entered the market, most of them through SPACs. Valuations fluctuated wildly, and there has been a great deal of publicity around these companies.\nThis new updated EV investment roadmap is greatly expanded. In addition to updating the strategies and progress of companies previously discussed, I expanded the number of companies covered. This article also groups EV companies into their primary markets, enabling better comparisons and evaluation of market opportunities. In addition, it includes a comparative valuation chart showing every company's market cap with a comparison to projected revenue, where possible. This takes advantage (good or bad) of looking at the long-term revenue forecasts provided in SPAC mergers that public companies can't make.\nIn addition to the EV manufacturers discussed here, there are also EV investment opportunities in charging station companies, battery manufacturers, and battery materials companies. These were covered in the original roadmap and may also be updated in a later article.\nApproximately 2 million EVs were sold in 2019, and although the number declined along with all auto sales in 2020, it is forecasted to increase in 2021 and reach 8-10 million by 2025. Some forecast that EV sales will be greater than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2030, or even earlier. The automobile market appears to be moving toward a historical transformation, and exceptional investment gains can be made by anticipating new emerging industries and investing in the eventual winners of those new industries. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)are obvious examples. Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to create a new emerging industry.\nThere are also significant risks. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to be released in the next three years, which will drive rapid growth in EV sales. However, the expected sales from these new models, as well as the increasing expectations from Tesla, most likely exceed the total projected market. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the companies covered here won't exist five years from now. It reminds me of the internet bubble of the late 1990s when scores of internet-based companies went public with little or no revenue. Almost all of these failed within three years -- however, a couple, including Amazon, went on to enormous success.\nEVs provide a major new investment opportunity with high risks. To succeed, you need to have a clear EV investment roadmap.\nSo, how can you invest in this new emerging market? The EV landscape is complex and investment opportunities are varied. While Tesla is the unquestioned leader in EVs, some consider it overvalued and unlikely to show exceptional returns to new investors. The current U.S. legacy automakers are committed to introducing many new EVs in the next few years, and they have some entrenched advantages with volume manufacturing capabilities, a dealer infrastructure, and loyal customers. There are exciting new EV start-ups in the U.S. that have come public this year, mostly through Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), and there are several interesting publicly traded Chinese EV manufacturers.\nThis new roadmap for EV investment classifies companies into three primary markets segments:\n<ul>\n <li>TheConsumer Retailsegment includes EVs sold to consumers individually, such as SUVs, pickup trucks, sedans, etc.</li>\n <li>TheCommercial Deliverysegment includes local delivery EV vans and trucks sold to fleets.</li>\n <li>TheMedium- and Long-Haul Truckingsegment includes heavier Class 4 - Class 8 trucks, as well as special industrial vehicles.</li>\n</ul>\nIn addition, it categorizesLegacy ManufacturersandChinese EV Companies. This enables investors to evaluate investment opportunities by considering unique opportunities within each market segment.\nThere is an enormous amount of investment optimism for EVs, and retail investors have been aggressively buying into EV stocks with seemingly no regard for valuation. Then there is the additional challenge of valuing companies with no revenue, especially those coming public through SPACs. So, valuation is an important investment consideration.\nSo let's start by looking at an overview of comparative EV valuations.\nEV Investment Valuation Overview\nThe following chart summarizes valuations for 23 EV companies, including several legacy companies. For SPACs, market cap estimates are computed using the pro forma number of shares at closing, otherwise using the valuation of the SPAC prior to closing drastically underestimates the valuation, which may be misleading to novice investors. Price/Sales ratios (market cap divided by revenue) are used to compare valuations. As a benchmark, current P/S ratios vary. For example, auto and truck companies have a ratio of 2.7X. Software companies have the highest ratios of over 10X.\nIn the chart, companies that currently have revenue show current P/S ratios. Where projections are available, projected P/S ratios are computed. A note of caution, however. Many of the EV companies came public through SPACs and published their projections (which public companies cannot do), and many of these are likely to prove unrealistic.\nAll of the longer-term revenue projections come from the company (C) forecasts with a SPAC. Some of these may turn out to be accurate, not many are most likely unrealistic. Some, like Lucid, Faraday, and Arrival forecast hitting more than $10 billion in revenue in a few years, when it took Tesla more than 10. Things are different now and they might achieve these, but they could also find that it will take longer to complete development, ramp up production, and create enough customer demand. Many companies may also find that there will be significant capital requirements to achieve this type of growth, and shareholders will be diluted.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc360dfa7de01516b7f68d5962cf3017\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"883\">\nTesla, the \"gold standard\" in EVs, has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, which many people believe is overvalued. Its market cap is approximately 20X 2020 revenue and 10X estimated 2022 revenue.\nTesla (TSLA)\nIn the U.S., and to a lesser extent in China, Tesla is the dominant EV provider. It has approximately 60% of the U.S. EV market and about 20% of the market in China. I own a Tesla and love it, but an investment in Tesla stock requires getting comfortable with its valuation. Tesla has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, although declining lately, which some consider still overvalued while others see upside potential.\nThe investment opportunity with Tesla is based on the expectation that it will continue to dominate the EV market, or at least maintain significant market share, despite much greater competition from the expected introduction of hundreds of new EV models in the next few years.\nThere is a great deal already published about Tesla, so I'll move on.\nLegacy Automakers\nSome people think that the legacy automakers will simply fade away. Historically, that was the case in some other industries, but it is not going to happen to most automakers. They are not standing still waiting to become obsolete. Most have aggressive strategies to replace ICE vehicles with EVs. GM plans to invest $27 billion and build and launch as many as 30 new EV models by 2025. Ford plans to invest $29 billion in EVs by 2025 and launch as many as 16 EVs in the next two years. Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY)has also committed billions to develop new EVs.\nThe competitive advantage that legacy automakers have in selling their new EVs is their dealer network. Will new EV customers prefer to continue going to their regular auto dealer to buy their new EV?\nAlmost all legacy automakers worldwide are developing and launching EVs including Volkswagen, Peugeot, Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi, Hyundai/Kia. Let's look a little more closely at GM and Ford as the leaders in the U.S.\nGeneral Motors (GM)\nGM has committed to introducing 20 new electric vehicles by 2023, including EVs across Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC, and Buick. It recently announced that it has already sold out the first-year production of its Hummer electric pickup. By mid-decade, it expects to sell a million EVs per year in its two largest markets: North America and China. As a reference point, Tesla reported deliveries of 367,500 vehicles globally in 2019.\nGM has a solid platform strategy for its EVs. It plans on building its EVs using five interchangeable drive units and three different motors from its Ultium Drive System platform. Ultium energy options range from 50 to 200 kWh, which could enable an estimated range of up to 400 miles. Most of its EVs will have 400-volt battery packs and up to 200 kW fast-charging capability while the truck platform will have 800-volt battery packs and 350 kW fast-charging capabilities.\nThe key building blocks of the Ultium battery system are large-scale, high-energy cells. Engineered in partnership with LG Energy Solutions, they use both advanced chemistry and a smart cell design that's optimized for a broad portfolio of EVs. GM engineers and scientists are actively researching and testing new elements in battery chemistry to lower costs and improve charge times. Ultium can contain either vertically- or horizontally-stacked cells to integrate into vehicle design: vertically for trucks, SUVs, and crossovers, or horizontally for cars and performance vehicles. As new chemistry is developed and becomes available, the battery management system could digitally update the modules.\nGM also has other EV opportunities with its BrightDrop commercial EV service and its Cruise subsidiary. BrightDrop will not just sell delivery EVs, it will provide an entire service platform for commercial delivery customers. Its set of electric delivery vehicles starts with the EV600 and includes the BrightDrop EP1, a pod-like electric pallet. SeeGeneral Motors' Aggressive EV/AV Strategies May Payoff Big.\nWith its highest stock price of $61.65, GM's current market cap is approximately $89 billion, increasing primarily because of its progress with EVs. This approximately 3X valuation in 2018, but still only 13% of Tesla.\nFord (F)\nFord is also investing heavily in EVs. It just introduced the Mustang Mach-E, a battery-powered crossover with sports car styling, and plans to introduce an all-electric version of its best-selling F-150 pickup later this year. Also, planned is an electric edition of the full-size Transit van, which has been popular in the commercial delivery market. Ford has confirmed plans to build a luxury Lincoln crossover on a battery-powered platform provided by Rivian. The automaker also plans to introduce two new midsize electric crossovers, one each for the Ford and Lincoln brands by 2023.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd8523e15bccc57790940d4218f7b94e\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"1080\">Mustang Mach-E. Source: Ford\nFord's market cap is approximately $51 billion, twice its previous market cap, and also increasing.\nConsumer Retail EV Companies\nThe consumer retail market has some unique characteristics for new EV companies. Sales are made individually, not in fleets. This diversifies the risk upon launch because only a sufficient number of customers need to be attracted to the new EV. A wave of popularity can provide terrific momentum.\nHowever, the lack of a dealer network can be an impediment. Selling EVs directly to consumers instead of through dealers is prohibited in most states. By law, auto manufacturers can't compete with franchised dealers. These are laws that go back many decades to protect dealers. This can be a major impediment for new companies without established independent dealer franchises. So, new AV companies. like Tesla, need to sell their vehicles online. Tesla has successfully done this, but it took a lot of work and time. Lack of a dealer network also creates impediments in service.\nIn addition, over the next 4-5 years, autonomous capabilities will be increasingly important to luxury vehicles. This may prove to be a challenge to start-up EV companies because they can't afford to develop this technology.\nLet's look closer at the alternative consumer retail EV investments.\nLucid Motors (CCIV)\nLucid was founded in 2007 under the name Atieva and originally focused on building electric vehicle batteries and powertrains for other vehicle manufacturers. The company rebranded itself as Lucid Motors in October 2016 and shifted its strategy to develop an all-electric, high-performance, luxury vehicle. Shortly after that, it encountered financial difficulties and struggled to get short-term funding. In 2018 it raised more than $1 billion in investment, primarily from Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund, and gave up a majority of the company.\nLucid Motors reached an agreement to become a publicly-traded company through a merger with the SPAC Churchill Capital IV Corp., in one of the largest deals SPAC EV deals. The combined company, in which Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund will continue to be the largest shareholder, had a transaction equity value of $11.75 billion (for $10/share). At the same time, it closed a PIPE investment priced at $15 a share, giving it an implied pro forma equity value of $24 billion. Rumors about this deal circulated before the transaction was formally announced, making it one of the most anticipated SPAC deals. The hype and speculation drove up the stock price of Churchill Capital IV Corp. from its opening price of $10 a share to almost $60. I believe that some of this may have been driven by novice SPAC investors who didn't realize that the valuation of CCIV didn't include the eventual valuation of Lucid. The share price dropped more than 30% after the details of the deal were announced. It's also likely that Lucid renegotiated the terms of the merger based on the price jump.\nThe company's first product is the Lucid Air, a well-equipped luxury electric vehicle that features 406 miles of projected range and 480 horsepower with a starting price of $77,400, or $69,900 after the U.S. Federal Tax Credit of $7,500. This new Lucid Air model is positioned as a high-performance, ultra-efficient luxury EV sedan in a line of future vehicles that are expected to include Lucid Air Touring, Grand Touring, and Dream Edition versions.\nThe company plans to begin production and deliveries of the Lucid Air in North America in the second half of 2021. Previously the company aimed to begin deliveries earlier in 2021. It intends to sell the car in Europe in 2022, followed by China in 2023. Lucid vehicles will be produced at its new factory in Casa Grande, Arizona. The company plans to expand the factory in phases in the coming years to have the capacity to produce 365,000 units per year at scale. The initial phase of the $700 million factory construction was completed late last year and will have the capacity to produce 30,000 vehicles a year.\nLucid also apparently has a commitment to build an assembly plant in Saudi Arabia, which was rumored to be a condition of the $1 billion investment from the Saudi public fund. The Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund also provided $600 million in bridge financing and invested in the SPAC deal as well. So, while this assembly plant may be expensive and may not be critical, it will most likely need to happen.\nLucid has ambitious plans to achieve $14 billion in revenue in 2025, and its current stock price at $29.17, which gives it a market cap of more than $46 billion, may already reflect those ambitions. Its market cap is roughly the same as Ford.\nFisker (FSR)\nFisker, which had its origins with Fisker Automotive, is an interesting story that ended in bankruptcy. Henrik Fisker originally co-founded Fisker Automotive in 2007. He was responsible for designing many premium cars such as the Aston Martin. Subsequently, Fisker Automotive had to deal with a Tesla lawsuit against Fisker Automotive alleging it stole Tesla's technology, a controversial $528.7 million conditional loan from the Department of Energy, a recall of its battery produced by A123, and the loss of several hundred vehicles in hurricane Sandy. Henrik Fisker resigned in March 2013 because of disagreements over business strategy and in November 2013, Fisker filed its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case.\nHowever, Henrik Fisker retained the Fisker brand and trademarks, and in 2016 he started another electric vehicle company named Fisker Inc. with the Fisker brand and trademarks. In 2019, Fisker shifted from developing a sports car with a solid-state battery to the Ocean SUV featuring a lithium-ion battery, which it later abandoned for a solid-state battery.\nFisker is positioning itself in a unique segment for those who want the most environmentally friendly EV. While this may be an early growth segment for EVs, it's difficult to estimate its eventual competitive advantage and the size of this environmentally-friendly market segment.\nThe Ocean is a crossover made of recycled metal and plastic with an expected base price of $37,499, and an expected lease of less than $400 a month. Fisker's plan is essentially a lease-only business model that lets customers keep a vehicle for years or return it at any time. It aims to source motors, batteries, and other components from technical partnerships with automakers and will outsource production from existing auto plants. Fisker is currently taking reservations at $250 for the Ocean. It also announced an agreement with Foxconn to jointly develop a vehicle pioneering a new market segment to be sold globally under the Fisker brand commencing in Q4 2023. at the end of 2022. Production will start at Magna Steyr's manufacturing facilities in Europe. At the end of February 2021, it had 12,467 cancellable reservations.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/924a617c90fc3276d7bdab8c64ebfdcf\" tg-width=\"744\" tg-height=\"389\">Fisker Ocean. Source: Fisker\nFisker went public using a SPAC (Spartan Energy). The original combination with SPAQ in October 2020 was valued at $2.9 billion with a cash investment of approximately $1 billion. The stock currently trades at approximately $21 per share, after reaching a high of $28.50, from the original price of $10, which is a market cap of $4.6 billion. Fisker projects $3.3 billion in revenue in 2023. It had almost $1 billion in cash at the end of 2020 and expected to use almost half of this in 2021: $250 million on operating expenses and $250 million in capital investments. If the Ocean is delayed into 2023, Fisker risks missing its revenue objective and will potentially need additional cash to complete development and launch.\nFaraday Future (PSAC)\nFaraday Future was originally established in May 2014 by Chinese businessman Jia Yueting. It is headquartered in Los Angeles and has offices in Silicon Valley, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu. Faraday Future also had a turbulent history. In 2016, it struggled financially, and in 2017 some key executives departed over a dispute about financial issues. They later founded Canoo.\nIn December 2018 the company announced layoffs due to a cash crunch and financial troubles. The company's founder Jia Yueting filed for personal bankruptcy in the United States' federal court in Delaware on October 14, 2019. Following Jia's personal bankruptcy, he decided to step down from his role as CEO of Faraday Future in order to assume a new position as the Chief Product and User Officer. He was replaced as CEO by Carsten Breitfeld, the former CEO at rival electric vehicle startup Byton.\nSomehow, Faraday was able to raise $2.3 billion in private funding over 5 rounds from a variety of investors. In early 2018, it received $1.5 billion in funding from an undisclosed investor from Hong Kong.\nFaraday's flagship product offering will be the FF 91, featuring 1,050 HP, 0-60 mph in less than 2.4 seconds, zero gravity seats with the largest 60-degree reclining angles, and a user experience designed to create a mobile, connected, and luxurious living space. The FF 91 is targeted to launch in 2022.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e38bfb3211c72bb73bc26f2ebe296fe\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"854\">FF 91. Source: Faraday Future\nIts strategic partners include one of China's top three OEMs and a critical Chinese city, which the company believes will help establish its presence in the Chinese vehicle market.\nFaraday Future plans several cars based on its Variable Platform Architecture. FF 91 is the first production vehicle and flagship model. Pricing will range between $120,000 and upwards of $200,000, which places it against formidable opponents. Faraday Future is already looking forward to expanding its range with a pair of smaller models named FF 81 and FF 71. The FF 81 is planned to be priced at $75,000 to 95,000 with a 2023 release. The FF 71 is planned to be priced at $45,000 to $65,000 with a planned release of 2024.\nThe Primary Manufacturing Facility for FF 91 is in Hanford, CA with contract manufacturing for future models in Gunsan, South Korea.\nFaraday Future is planning high-Level automation with a Level-3 capable system using a redundant safety architecture based on NVIDIA Xavier System-on-a-chip. It will be capable of highway auto-drive and hardware ready for advanced auto-drive. It is targeting full autonomous valet parking &amp; summon in any parking lot or structure. Eventually, it expects full auto-drive, including full 360˚ sensor coverage for advanced auto-drive &amp; auto-park features.\nIn January 2021, Faraday Future announced that the company would go public through a reverse merger with the special purpose acquisition company Property Solutions Acquisition Corp. (PSAC). The combined company will be valued at $3.4 billion. Faraday Future is expected to set up contract manufacturing operations in China through their partnership with Geely. Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn is also expected to serve as an additional strategic partner.\nFaraday Future projects $10.5 billion in revenue in 2024 and $21.5 billion in 2025. Revenue is expected to start in 2022 with the delivery of 2,400 vehicles for $504 million. Most likely these projections could prove to be optimistic. At a current stock price of approximately $12.80, it has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nLordstown Motors (RIDE)\nLordstown Motors based in Lordstown, Ohio, was originally founded in 2018 by Steve Burns, the former CEO of Workhorse Group. The company licensed technology from Workhorse in return for royalties and a 10% ownership. Lordstown is named after the famous GM Lordstown manufacturing plant, which it acquired in November 2019 in an unusual transaction. GM announced that it was closing the plant and was under a great deal of pressure for that decision. So, GM \"sold\" the plant to a company that was renamed Lordstown for an estimated $20 million that it loaned to the acquiring company. Subsequently, the sale was redefined to be part of a $75 million investment by GM, of which $50 million was an in-kind exchange for the plant.\nLordstown went public through the SPAC DiamondPeak Holdings Corp. in 2020. It currently has more than 400 employees.\nIts first product is the Lordstown Endurance, a full-sized EV pickup truck. Lordstown is positioning Endurance for the pickup fleet market segment. The expected price is $52,000+, and it claimed to have more than 100,000 pre-orders by January 2021. However, a recent research article published by a short seller claimed \"Our research has revealed that Lordstown's order book consists of fake or entirely non-binding orders, from customers that generally do not even have fleets of vehicles.\" Lordstown is disputing that article.\nIt believes the fleet pickup market segment is underserved with no current EV-focused competition. It estimates that the full-sized pick-up truck fleet market is 1.2 million vehicles per year in the U.S., but it's more fragmented than other truck fleets. Pickup \"fleets\" tend to be much smaller and local, so there may not be much of a market distinction for a small company buying several EV pickups from a traditional auto dealer. About half of the total U.S. pickup market is classified as fleet sales, meaning more than one.\nEven though Lordstown is targeting the commercial fleet market, it is a similar product to the Ford EV F-150. So I classify it in the consumer EV category. It is a class 2 vehicle. Lordstown also may enter the SUV market in the longer-term.\nThe Endurance will compete against future models from Rivian and Tesla, as well as Ford and GM in ICE pick-ups and their upcoming EV pick-ups. Ford plans on selling its EV F-150 in mid-2022. Initial production of the Endurance is expected in the second half of 2021, so it may have a short market advantage. Nevertheless, it forecasts selling 65,000 vehicles in 2023 and 107,000 in 2024. These estimates could be a large percentage of the EV pick-up market in those years.\nAt the SPAC merger, the implied valuation for Lordstown was $1.6 billion, including a $500 million PIPE and the $75 million by GM. Lordstown's financial projections appear to be aggressive. It projects to start shipping the Endurance in late 2021 with projected revenue in 2022 of $1.7 billion, increasing to $5.8 billion in 2024. Its stock price at approximately $13.60 values the company at a market cap of approximately $2.2 billion. The value of the company depends on the likelihood of achieving its projections.\nA fleet sales strategy makes sense for Lordstown since it would be too expensive to build a retail sales and service capability. However, it's not clear that this will become a distinct competitive advantage. Some small fleets may still prefer to buy their EV pickups from established local dealers with service capabilities.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nCanoo started as Evelozcity in 2017 and rebranded as Canoo in the spring of 2019. Canoo is a Los Angeles-based company that develops electric vehicles. It has over 350 employees. Canoo has designed a modular electric platform purpose-built to deliver maximum vehicle interior space, which is adaptable to support a wide range of vehicle applications for consumers and businesses. Canoo expects to launch its first consumer model in 2022, simply named the Canoo that will be available by subscription, followed shortly after by a multi-purpose delivery vehicle and a sports vehicle, each built off of the same underlying platform. Canoo went public using a SPAC (Hennessy Capital Acquisition) and now trades as GOEV.\nCanoo's all-electric skateboard-like platform is designed to support both consumer retail and commercial vehicle configurations. The EV leverages Canoo's flat skateboard architecture for a high level of usable interior space. Its commercial vehicle program, expected in 2023, addresses a projected $50B+ last-mile delivery market with an EV platform that maximizes cargo volume.\nHyundai Motor Group said it would jointly develop an electric vehicle platform with the company.\nCanoo's platform strategy is interesting. It could be used as an EV platform for custom fleets of delivery vehicles. It has no AV development, but it claims to be \"AV Ready\" which could be useful for AV companies wanting to build custom AV delivery fleets.\nIts all-electric multi-purpose delivery vehicle is expected to be priced starting at approximately $33,000. It is based on Canoo's proprietary electric platform and will be offered in two initial size variants, with others to follow. Limited availability will begin in 2022, with scaled production and launch planned for 2023. Customers can pre-order the multi-purpose delivery vehicle for a refundable deposit of $100 per vehicle\nIt plans to offer two multi-purpose delivery vehicles: the MPDV1 and the larger MPDV2. The first has a 200-foot cargo volume and a range of 130-200 miles. It offers more capacity than today's ICE delivery vehicles at an affordable price with urban mobility enabled by a space-efficient footprint. The vehicle is also designed to fit within many height-restricted areas like parking garages.\nThe MPDV2 has a cargo volume of 450 feet and a range of 90-190 miles. Its roof and step-in height enable individuals to easily walk-in the vehicle and accommodate a standing position while inside.\nThe original SPAC transaction provided approximately $600 million, with a pro forma equity value of approximately $2.4 billion. Like other SPAC mergers, its stock price has fluctuated. It currently trades at about $15.90 per share for a market cap of approximately $3.7 billion. Canoo projects $2.0 billion in revenue in 2025 from about $500 million in engineering services, $1.2 billion from its consumer vehicle subscriptions, and the remainder from its commercial program. Canoo expects revenue of more than $300 million in 2022 after the launch of its lifestyle consumer vehicle.\nSince its first products are aimed at consumers, as is most of its forecasted 2025 revenue, I categorize it primarily as a consumer EV company. However, I think the design of that Canoo vehicle may not attract enough customers. More importantly, its subscription service way of selling its EV to consumers is risky. I think it has more potential in the commercial market, however, a dual strategy (consumer and commercial) is challenging. I like its skateboard platform design and that could prove to be a competitive advantage.\nRivian\nAlthough not yet public, I include Rivian because it has plans for an IPO as soon as Sept 2021, although it could slip into 2022. There are rumors that the company is targeting a market valuation of approximately $50B. Rivian has already raised more than $8 billion to date from Amazon, Ford, T. Rowe Price, and others.\nRivian has developed and vertically integrated a connected electric platform that can be flexibly applied to a range of applications, including the company's adventure products, as well as B2B products such as the Amazon last-mile delivery vans. The company's initial products, the R1T and R1S, provide a combination of performance, off-road capability, and utility. These vehicles will be produced at Rivian's manufacturing plant in Normal, Ill., with customer deliveries expected to begin in summer 2021. The launch of the R1S three-row electric SUV will follow in August.\nAdditional lower-priced models are being planned. The expected R2 series would include at least two smaller electric vehicles to coincide with the smaller platform, then another platform for R3.\nCommercial Delivery EV Companies\nEV truck companies differ based on the type of truck they are developing. The technology and markets are very different, so I separate them into two categories. The first category includes commercial delivery vehicles.\nCompanies making EV delivery vehicles have some major advantages that could make them good investments. First, delivery vehicles typically travel less than 250 miles during a day, so they can be conveniently recharged overnight. Secondly, they are typically sold in large quantities to fleets. This means that building a retail sales infrastructure is not necessary. It only requires a small salesforce. In addition, maintenance can also be provided at the fleet's operational center, so not as many service centers are required.\nThe disadvantage in this market is that there are a relatively small number of customers that buy in large volumes, so if the EV manufacturer can't get enough large customers, they may not be able to stay in business. GM estimates the combined market opportunity for parcel and food delivery, as well as reverse logistics, in the U.S. will be more than $850 billion by 2025.\nThe commercial market is expected to be a major growth area for EVs. Other start-up automakers like Rivian as well as legacy automakers such as Ford, Daimler, and GM have announced plans to enter the segment. GM recently announced its BrightDrop ecosystem for commercial customers that includes an all-new electric delivery van, the EV600 available by the end of 2021, as well as an integrated autonomous pallet and related services.\nThis group of EV companies focuses primarily on commercial delivery. In general, these are in the light-duty trucks category, although it also includes some medium-duty trucks. This generally includes the following commercial truck classes:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 1: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 0-6,000 pounds or 0-2,722 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 2: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 6,001-10,000 pounds or 2,722-4,536 kilograms.1</li>\n <li>Class 3: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 10,001-14,000 pounds or 4,536-6,350 kilograms.</li>\n</ul>\nIt can also include somewhat larger medium-duty EV delivery trucks:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.</li>\n</ul>\nEV delivery trucks also have an advantage over ICE vehicles because they can have a greater delivery storage space. Smaller buses and transit vehicles are also included in this category.\nLast-mile package delivery is not an immediate-term autonomous vehicle opportunity because it requires a delivery person to be on the truck anyway.\nWorkhorse Group (WKHS)\nWorkhorse has been a public company for ten years. Originally AMP Electric Vehicles, it was established in 2007 as a developmental-stage vehicle electrification company, focusing on conversions. AMP Electric Vehicles went public in 2010 trading on the OTC market under the AMPD symbol. When the economic benefits of conversion became less certain, it pivoted away from passenger vehicles and began to focus on electrifying commercial vehicles. AMP acquired the Workhorse brand and the Workhorse custom chassis assembly plant in Union City. In March of 2013, AMP formally changed its name to Workhorse Group Incorporated.\nThe Company designs and builds a last-mile delivery electric vehicle. The C-Series EVs cover the larger size of commercial delivery vehicles in Classes 3-5. As part of its solutions, it also develops cloud-based, real-time telematics performance monitoring systems. It sells its vehicles to fleet customers directly and through its primary distributor, Ryder Systems. It is currently focused on bringing the C-Series electric delivery truck to market and fulfilling the existing backlog of orders.\nThe C-Series looks like a viable EV replacement for the 350,000 last-mile delivery vehicles sold in the U.S. annually. It recently announced an increased driving range from 100 miles to 160, which should open more market opportunities. It has a viable short-term go-to-market strategy selling fleets to delivery companies. It currently has test vehicles with UPS, DHL, FedEx, Amazon, and Walmart.\nWorkhorse recently lost out on the United States Postal Services Next Generation Delivery Vehicle project, however, it is in the process of challenging this decision. Additionally, its investment in Lordstown also provides an indirect investment opportunity. On November 7, 2019, the Company entered a transaction with Lordstown Motors to grant LMC a perpetual and worldwide license to certain intellectual property relating to its W-15 electric pickup truck platform and related technology in exchange for royalties, equity interest (approximately 10%) in LMC, and other considerations. This was a $320 million asset for Workhorse at the end of 2020.\nWorkhorse received a significant increase in orders in Q4/2020 but built just seven trucks in the fourth quarter due to production systems and supply chain issues. Workhorse plans to continue to take it slow, striving to build three of its composite-body battery-electric trucks a day in March with a plan to reach 10 trucks a day by the end of June. This makes its original 2021 goal of producing 1,800 trucks unlikely. It partnered with Hitachi and Hitachi Capital America (\"HCA\") to improve the Company's manufacturing, operational, and supply chain capabilities as well as to develop a national dealer network to support Workhorse's sales with vehicle financing options for both dealers and customers.\nWorkhorse has a market cap of approximately $1.9 billion. While Workhorse had ongoing revenue, unlike many other new EV companies, its revenue is still insignificant. It had a revenue of $1.4 million in 2020 and $377,000 in 2019. It has a backlog of over 8,000 vehicles but doesn't expect to be able to build many of those in 2021. It raised $270 million in capital over several financings, providing the Company with additional capital to build its backlog. It had cash of $215 million as of March 1, 2021. Because Workhorse is a traditional public company, it hasn't made long-term financial projections like SPAC-based companies.\nElectric Last Mile (FIII)\nElectric Last Mile, based in Troy Michigan, was founded by Jason Luo, former CEO of Ford China before it was acquired by China's Ningbo Joyson Electronic for $920 million in 2016, including James Taylor, former CEO of GM's Hummer brand and former CEO of electric car maker Karma Automotive. Taylor serves as the company's top executive with Luo as the company's chairman.\nThe company plans to launch a small electric delivery van (class 1-2), called the UD-1, in the third quarter of 2021, and then introduce an Urban Utility vehicle (Class 2-3) in 2022. These are expected to compete with Workhorse, Rivian, Canoo, as well as the Ford eTransit and the GMC BV1, none of which is expected to be a Class 1 vehicle.\nThe company says it has 30,000 preorders for its van, representing more than $1 billion in sales. Electric Last Miles vehicles will be based on Sokon's commercial van made in China through a joint venture with Dongfeng Automobile Co Ltd. in order to accelerate development time.\nElectric Last Mile (ELM) is expected to manufacture the vans in a former General Motors Co. Hummer plant in Mishawaka, Ind., that the company is acquiring from China's Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co. Ltd. The plant has the capacity to produce 100,000 vehicles annually with plans to build approximately 4,000 UD-1 vans by the end of 2021. The UD-1 has a starting price of $32,500 and a range of 150 miles. The battery for the vehicle is expected to be supplied by the Chinese battery company CATL.\nELM believes that it has a competitive advantage because its first vehicle, the ELM Urban Delivery, is scheduled to be available in 2021. It is based on a proven, existing platform developed and sold by Sokon Group in the Asian market, where there are 30,000 of these electric delivery vehicles driving 1.5 million miles every day. At the close of the business combination, ELM will be an independent, U.S. company producing electric vehicles in the U.S. with Sokon Group providing access to its know-how, parts supply, and field and service data.\nELM expects that the Urban Delivery vehicle will be the first electric delivery vehicle coming to market in the class 1 category (GVW of 6,000 lbs or less) in the U.S. It will also have 35% more carrying volume compared to similar ICE delivery vehicles, a critical part of the value proposition. It also anticipates that its price and greater carrying volume will allow it to take market share from the class 2 category of vehicles as well.\nIts crossover product portfolio strategy targets commercial delivery vehicles spanning from class 1 to class 3, which represents over 80% of the last mile market.\nELM anticipates $122 million in revenue in 2021, rapidly increasing to $3 billion in 2025. The price of FIII stock increased immediately following its announcement with Electric Last Mile, rising more than 40% to $14.50, but now it has dropped closer to the original deal price to $10.25 for a market cap of approximately $1.5 billion.\nGreenPower Motor Company (GP)\nGreenPower Motor Company Inc. is a Canadian battery-electric bus manufacturer with multiple models of high- and low-floor vehicles, including transit buses, school buses, and shuttles. GreenPower offers commercial vehicles for delivery, public transit, schools, vanpooling, micro-transit, shuttles, and is developing a capability of autonomous operation. It went public on August 28, 2020.\nIn 2014 GreenPower launched its first purpose-built, battery-electric bus, the EV350, 40-foot transit bus. GreenPower received its first order in 2017 for ten EV350s from the City of Porterville, California.\nGreenPower's electric buses are purpose-built and designed to be all-electric, allowing it to put the battery and propulsion system in optimized locations that provide weight and structural advantages. Its primary EV is the EV Star with more than 120 vehicles delivered. It comes in several variations:\n<ul>\n <li>EV Star - Up to 19 passengers</li>\n <li>EV Star Plus - Up to 24 passengers</li>\n <li>EV Star ADA - Passenger and curbside lift for ADA</li>\n <li>EV Star Cargo - 5,000 pounds of load</li>\n <li>EV Star Cargo Plus - 570 cubic feet of cargo space.</li>\n</ul>\nIts EV school bus seats up to 90 students and has a range of up to 150 miles.\nGreenPower had revenue of $13.5 million in 2020 It has about $21 million in cash. It's an interesting alternative since it is already shipping EVs, has revenue, and also has a lower market cap of less than $1 billion. Since it did a traditional IPO, it hasn't published longer-term financial forecasts.\nArrival (CIIC)\nArrival was founded in 2015 in London to make a variety of commercial electric vehicles. It has approximately 1,200 employees across 11 cities in 8 countries. In November 2020, Arrival and the SPAC CIIG entered into a business combination agreement with an implied valuation of $5.39 billion.\nArrival plans on releasing four commercial EVs over the next few years.\n<ul>\n <li>Q4/2021: An electric bus for 8-125 passengers and a range of 240-400km</li>\n <li>Q3/2022: An electric delivery van with a payload of 975-2,000kg and a range of 150-340km</li>\n <li>2022: A larger electric van with a payload of 4,000 kg and a range of 190-400km</li>\n <li>2023: a small vehicle platform with a range of 100-300km.</li>\n</ul>\nThis mix provides a nice diversified portfolio of EVs. Arrival claims to have received orders from UPS for 10,000 vans. It plans a unique flexible manufacturing approach using micro-factories with each projected to manufacture 10,000 vans per year. All of its vehicles use a modular skateboard electric platform.\nArrival ambitiously projects $14.1 billion in revenue in 2024. Half of that revenue is expected from delivery vans, 22% from buses, and the rest from the large van and its small vehicle platform. With CIIC's stock price at $24.80 per share, Arrival's current market cap is relatively high at approximately $15.0 billion. Justifying its market cap depends on its ability to release, sell, and produce its four commercial EVs.\nProterra (ACTC)\nProterra is a commercial electric vehicle company with over a decade of production experience. The Company has designed an end-to-end, flexible technology platform that claims to deliver higher performance and a low total cost of ownership to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end customers.\nProterra, Inc., was originally founded in Golden, Colorado, by Dale Hill in 2004. Later the company wanted to take the lead in creating zero-emission, U.S.-based transit buses. In 2010 it moved its manufacturing plant from Golden, Colorado to Greenville, South Carolina. In 2015, Proterra was awarded a $3 million grant from the California Energy Commission to fund the design, development, and construction of the company's battery-electric transit bus manufacturing line in the City of Industry, California. It moved its headquarters from Greenville, South Carolina, to Burlingame, California, in October 2015. Proterra raised more than $600 million in funding.\nIt is going public through the SPAC ArcLight (ACTC) with a pro forma valuation of $1.6 billion. Upon completion of the transaction, Proterra expects to have up to $825 million in cash to fund growth initiatives, including R&amp;D and the expansion of its next-generation battery program.\nProterra has three complementary businesses:\n<ul>\n <li>Proterra Powered: Delivering battery systems and electrification solutions to commercial vehicle manufacturers</li>\n <li>Proterra Transit:Providing an electric transit bus OEMs</li>\n <li>Proterra Energy:Offering turnkey charging and energy management solutions.</li>\n</ul>\nThe company's battery systems have been proven in more than 16 million service miles driven by its fleet of transit vehicles and validated through partnerships with commercial vehicle OEMs. Proterra has produced and delivered more than 300 megawatt-hours of battery systems, more than 550 heavy-duty electric transit buses, and installed 54 megawatts of charging systems.\nProterra expected $193 million of revenue in 2020, with an estimated $750 million in existing orders and backlog. It projects $2.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with about 1/3 coming from its Transit business, and 2/3 From Powered &amp; Energy. At ACTC's current stock price of $17.85, Proterra has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nRivian\nRivian (see earlier description in consumer retail) will also compete in the commercial delivery market. It has been working with Amazon (a major investor) to build large electric delivery vans for Prime. Developed specifically for Amazon, a small fleet of Prime vans is on the road now, testing deliveries to customers and gathering feedback. In late fall, it could grow to a large fleet as Rivian ramps up the volume.\nThe EV range of 150 miles is tailored to Amazon's use cycle to optimize the size, weight, and cost of the commercial vehicle. Rivian has three sizes of batteries, but Amazon is starting with just one of them.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nSee the previous summary under consumer retail EV.\nMedium and Long-Haul Trucking EV Companies\nCompanies developing medium- and long-haul EV trucks face a more difficult challenge with battery range. These trucks haul much more weight than commercial delivery vehicles and because they are designed for long distances, they can't stop every 200-300 miles for recharging.\nFor this reason, many of these companies are using unique hybrid technologies for their trucks. The EV trucks in this category are primarily heavy-duty but also include some medium-duty trucks and specialty vehicles. A couple of the companies focus on retrofitting trucks to be electric.\nMedium-Duty Trucks\nThe medium-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 4, 5, and 6:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 6: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 19,501-26,000 pounds or 8,846-11,793 kilograms.1</li>\n</ul>\nHeavy-Duty Trucks\nThe heavy-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 7 and 8:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 7: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 26,001 to 33,000 pounds or 11,794-14,969 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 8: This class of trucks has a GVWR of greater than 33,001 pounds or 14,969 kilograms and includes all tractor-trailers.</li>\n</ul>\nThe Tesla Semi is a battery vehicle planned for a range of 300 or 500 miles and a speed of 60 MPH with 80,000 lbs of cargo. Tesla plans to start shipping the Semi later this year when it expects to have sufficient cell volume to meet its needs with the production of its 4680 battery pack.\nNikola(NASDAQ:NKLA)\nNikola has been a very controversial company. Founded in 2015, it originally had two different strategies. Its primary strategy is to lease fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) Class-8 heavy trucks and provide the refueling infrastructure to corporate customers. Its second strategy was to develop the Badger EV truck using GM technology.\nNikola originally merged with a SPAC to go public, at an enterprise value of approximately $3.3 billion. On June 6th, 2020, its market cap jumped to more than $30 billion, then later it dropped because of problems with its originally planned deal with GM.\nNikola originally expected a deal with General Motors that included the production of the Nikola Badger EV pickup truck. The proposed arrangement was that GM would take a $2 billion equity stake in Nikola and in return would engineer and produce the Badger. In November 2020, GM and Nikola scrapped the original arrangement. Now it appears that GM will supply Nikola with only its Hydrotec hydrogen fuel-cell technology to integrate into the EV manufacturer's commercial class 7 and class 8 zero-emission semi-trucks. So, the Badger is probably dead.\nNikola now sees semi-trucks as the company's \"core business\" and fuel cells as an increasingly important segment of the semi-truck market thanks to their efficiency in weight and consumption. It expects to begin testing by the end of 2021.\nIt has received pre-orders from Anheuser-Busch and a few other companies, but it doesn't expect deliveries until 2023. Hydrogen fueling stations are key to its strategy, both providing a source of revenue and necessary fueling infrastructure for the trucks to operate, but they also cost a lot. In its March 2020 investor deck, Nikola said a single station capable of fueling 210 trucks a day would cost $16.6 million. Its initial planned network of 700 stations would cost roughly $11.6 billion.\nNikola was also accused of misrepresentation, and its executive chairman and founder stepped down.\nAt the time of the SPAC merger, it projected an optimistic forecast of more than $3 billion in revenue by 2024, with a net income of $145 million. Most of that revenue was expected to come from its Badger truck, which is no longer in the plans. Yet its market cap is still almost $6 billion.\nHyliion (HYLN)\nHyliion, founded in 2015 in Austin, went public in October 2020 through the SPAC Tortoise Acquisition Corp. (SHLL). In March 2019, automotive parts manufacturer Dana Inc. made an equity investment into Hyliion, and together they are manufacturing and marketing Class 8 EVs to Dana's customers, including Volvo, Navistar, and Peterbilt.\nHyliion's strategy is unique, and a very different strategy from Nikola. Essentially it generates electricity onboard the truck using compressed natural gas (CNG). This should be a benefit for longer-range trucking. Hyliion's Hypertruck concept involves an all-electric drivetrain utilizing Dana's electric motor, inverter, and axle technologies. The truck's batteries are fueled by onboard tanks of CNG. With some 700 CNG stations already operating nationwide, it believes that there no need to build out expensive superchargers or hydrogen infrastructure.\nKuwait-based logistics company, Agility, has already placed an order for 1,000 Hypertrucks with initial deliveries targeted in 2022. Combined with a fully electric drivetrain and a natural gas-powered onboard generator to recharge the battery, the Hypertruck ERX will provide more than 1,000 miles of range.\nHyliion will eventually compete with Nikola (FCEV) and the Tesla battery-based Semi, but it plans to have a longer range and lower operating costs. Its HyperTruck ERX is expected to be available in 2021. It also has a hybrid-electric truck.\nThe combination with SHLL had an estimated market cap of about $1.5 billion, with approximately $530 million going to the company, including a $325 million fully committed PIPE. At approximately $13.50 per share, its current market cap is approximately $2.2 billion, significantly down from its peak. Hyliion projects $2 billion in revenue in 2024, which it claims is only about 2% of the addressable market.\nXL Fleet (XL)\nXL Fleet is a 10-year old company that went public through the SPAC Pivotal. XL is different because it provides fleet electrification modifications for ICE trucks across a wide range of vehicle classes (class 2-5) and types. It has over 200 of the largest commercial and municipal fleets as customers, with more than 3,200 XL systems deployed and over 130 million miles driven by customers to date. XL's customer base includes FedEx, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Verizon, the City of Boston, Seattle Fire Department, Yale University, and Harvard University.\nXL's business model is essentially retrofitting existing trucks to be hybrids and then later expanding into fully electric truck conversions. It claims to be creating a fully integrated platform for this. It remains to be seen if the retrofitting business will continue to grow or will it diminish when more trucks are designed and manufactured with EV capabilities.\nUnlike some other EV companies that have no revenue yet because they are still developing products, XL is more of a small company doing low-volume retrofits. It had $7.2 million in revenue in 2019, $21 million in 2020, and estimates $76 million in 2021, but it forecasts $1.3 billion in revenue in 2024 in its investor presentation. It plans to do this by expanding its product line from hybrid to plug-in hybrid to fully electric across a broader range of trucks. It claims to have a $220 million sales pipeline for the next 12 months.\nShort-seller, Muddy Waters, claimed after talking to former XL Fleet employees, that it believed the company significantly exaggerated its order backlog, that the return on investment for the company's products was likely negative, and that it would not be able to compete with big car makers on electrification. The company thoroughly refuted these claims.\nThe original enterprise valuation was approximately $1.4 billion at a $10 share price for the merger. Its price jumped by about 35% but has since gone back down to $12.40 for a market cap of about $1.8 billion. Although XL Fleet has revenue and other EV companies don't, this may not be an advantage. It appears to be a small company for many years that has gone public at a high valuation with grand plans. The risks are in its ability to make a jump from $76 million in 2021 to $1.3 billion in 2024, as well as the question about retrofitting being replaced by new EV trucks by then.\nXos (NGAC)\nXos Trucks specializes in the field of manufacturing fully electric commercial vehicles. It features a software platform that is designed to accommodate an extensive variety of medium-duty bodies, wheelbase, and range requirements up to 200 miles. It was founded in 2016 and headquartered in North Hollywood, California. It received $20 million of investment in 2020 and now is going public through a merger with the SPAC ExtGen Acquisition Corporation (NGAC) at an estimated proforma value of $1.965 billion.\nIts focus is on medium- and heavy-duty last mile and return-to-base segments (class 5/6, class 6/7, and class 7/8) commercial fleets and specialty vehicles. Some vehicles are currently in production and in regular on-road operations with key fleet customers, and it claimed 6,000 unit orders in backlog.\nIts MD-platform is for classes 5-6 for pickup and delivery. Its HD X-Platform is an adaptable chassis for highway, vocational, and severe work conditions. Its market is for customers with highly predictable routes that allow for batteries designed for a more limited range. A significantly larger frame and smaller battery pack allow for reduced density.\nXos has a bundled all-in-one offering that allows fleets to access all the tools and services they need to go electric with a single point of contact at a fixed monthly expense.\nXos had $3 million in revenue in 2020 and estimates $14 million in 2021. However, it forecasts $5.2 billion in revenue in 2025. At the current stock price of $10.30, its market cap is approximately $2 billion, about the same as its original SPAC transaction.\nLion Electric (NGA)\nLion Electric is a Canadian company founded by Marc Bédard in 2008. Its focus is to be a leader in designing, developing, and manufacturing purpose-built urban electric vehicles; vehicles that are specifically designed as delivery trucks, refuse trucks, bucket trucks, moving trucks, school buses, and shuttle buses. It has over 300 all-electric vehicles on the road today.\nIn November 2020, it announced that it was going public through the SPAC NGA. The transaction had an estimated pro forma enterprise value of $1.5 billion.\nIt plans on seven new truck models and one new school bus, for a total of 15 all-electric vehicles, representing a full line-up from class 5 to class 8 electric trucks and a full line-up of electric school buses. Its vehicles are produced at its existing manufacturing plant, which has the capacity for the production of up to 2,500 vehicles per year. It intends to open a new plant in the U.S. capable of delivering over 20,000 Lion trucks and buses per year by 2022.\nIts all-electric class 6 and class 8 commercial urban trucks combine power, comfort, and modern technology. Custom-built chassis and cabin designed specifically for an all-electric heavy-duty vehicle. The LionC is an all-electric Type C school bus manufactured in North America. The body and chassis were specifically designed to deliver optimal performance. The LionM is an all-electric midi/minibus that meets paratransit and public transportation requirements. Created and designed specifically for the paratransit market, the is spacious and offers unique features that provide enhanced security and accessibility to the end-users.\nLion Electric had $29 million in revenue in 2020 and expects $204 million in 2021. It forecasts revenue to jump to $3.6 billion a few years later in 2024. Its current market cap is approximately $3.6 billion based on its current stock price of $18.33.\nLightning eMotors (GIK)\nLightning eMotors, formerly Lightning Systems, was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Loveland, Colorado. It provides fleet electrification for familiar commercial vehicle platforms by retrofitting them with its electric powertrains. Lightning eMotors produces electric fleet medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including delivery trucks, shuttle buses, passenger vans, ambulances, bucket trucks, chassis-cab models, and city transit buses. It focuses on urban commercial zero-emission vehicles with a full range of class 3 through class 7 battery-electric and fuel-cell electric vehicles.\nLighting eMotors helps commercial fleets achieve their sustainability goals by offering zero-emission battery-electric vans, trucks, and buses based on familiar, proven vehicles from manufacturers such as Ford and GM. It works with customers, to help them identify their unique commercial electric vehicle, charging, and grant support needs.\nThe Lightning products include integrated all-electric powertrains for the Ford Transit 350HD passenger and cargo vans, Ford E-450 shuttle bus and cutaway models, Ford F-59 step/food van, Ford F-550 cargo trucks and buses, Chevrolet 6500XD Low Cab Forward model, and 30-foot, 35-foot, and 40-foot transit buses.\nLightning has 120 vehicles on the road, and 1,500 vehicles already on order from customers. In addition to making vehicles and powertrains, Lightning also provides a full suite of charging solutions for customers.\nThe deal with GIK has an enterprise value of $650 million, although there is also an Earnout of 20.0% of total pro forma shares outstanding to Lightning eMotors shareholders if the stock crosses certain price thresholds.\nAt the current price, of $11.73, GIK has a market cap of approximately $1 billion, a little more than the original transaction valuation. Similar to XL Fleet, Lightning has the risk that retrofitting may only be an interim business opportunity until more EV trucks are produced.\nPublic Chinese EV Companies\nChina will be the biggest EV market opportunity, and EV start-ups may do better there because there isn't as much entrenched competition from domestic auto companies. China is already the largest EV market in the world, with almost a million EVs sold in 2019. Its EV market represents almost half of the global EV sales volume and is much larger than the U.S. market.\nThe Chinese government has ambitions to become a global leader in new energy vehicles. Soon after the coronavirus outbreak subsided within the country, Chinese authorities announced new policies to support the auto and electric vehicle industries.\nThese Chinese companies are traded through American depository shares (ADS) that contain certain risks. There are financial reporting and transparency risks with these companies, and on top of that, the newer companies are being classified as \"emerging growth\" companies that are already exempt from certain transparency requirements set out in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Like the previous EV stock, these stocks have also been very volatile.\nIn addition to legacy auto manufacturers like BYD, there are also three Chinese EV companies that are publicly traded through American depositary shares.\nBYD Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:BYDDY)\nBYD, which means build your dreams, is the automotive subsidiary of the Chinese multinational BYD Co Ltd. It was founded in January 2003, following BYD Company's acquisition of Tsinchuan Automobile Company. The company produces automobiles, buses, electric bicycles, forklifts, rechargeable batteries, and trucks. The current model range of automobiles includes electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and petrol-engined vehicles. Thirteen years ago, on the advice of his famously skeptical lieutenant, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett made a $232 million investment in BYD, a relatively unknown Chinese car company.\nBy parlaying BYD's rechargeable battery technology into a fast-growing carmaking operation, it gained a foothold in the fledgling electric vehicle market, building longer-lasting batteries and cheaper vehicles than American and Japanese manufacturers were managing to do at the time. In BYD, Buffett and Munger believed they had found a company with a shot at one day becoming the largest player in a global automobile market that was inevitably going electric.\nBYD's start to 2021 was strong with 19,871 plug-in electric cars sold in January in China, including hybrid plug-ins. That was a big increase over 2020 but not as much as 2019.\nLI Auto (LI)\nLixiang, formerly known as Chehejia (\"Car and Home\"), was founded in 2015 and went public in the U.S. on July 30th, 2020. It is a Beijing-based electric-vehicle startup with vertically integrated manufacturing. It designs, researches, manufactures, sells, and offers services featuring a few models of electric vehicles.\nThe company's SUVs are hybrids of a sort. They use electric motors (one on the front axle and one on the rear), but those motors are powered by a combination of a 40.5kWh battery packanda 1.2-liter turbocharged engine paired to a 45-liter fuel tank and a 100kW electric generator, which generates power for the battery pack in real-time. The idea is that the car can be driven for about 100 miles on battery power alone, but it has a total range of nearly 500 miles when leveraging the combustion engine generator.\nThe Company's primary product is an SUV under its brand Li ONE. It also sells peripheral products and provides related services, such as charging stalls, vehicle internet connection services, and extended lifetime warranties. Li Auto is looking to sell a variety of SUVs built on its hybrid technology that range from around $21,000 to about $70,000. The company started shipping its first model in late 2019. It's a midsize SUV is well-appointed and has lots of touchscreens and technology. A full-size premium version is planned for release in 2022.\nDeliveries of Li ONEs were 14,464 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a 67.0% quarter-over-quarter increase and setting a new quarterly record. Deliveries for the full year 2020 reached 32,624 vehicles. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $635 million.\nLI auto went public on July 30th, 2020, raising $1.1 billion at an initial price of $15.50 per share but quickly reached almost $24. It is currently valued at approximately $37 billion at a price of approximately $25.72 per share.\nXPeng (XPEV)\nXiaopeng (XPeng) Motors is a Chinese electric vehicle and technology company that designs and manufactures smart cars. It was founded in 2015 and went public on August 27, 2020, using American depository shares, raising about $1 billion. To date, it has raised about $2.6 billion.\nXPeng aims its EVs at technology-savvy middle-class Chinese consumers, with prices ranging from $22,000 to $45,000 after government subsidies. In some ways, it is a Tesla knock-off at a much lower price. XPeng started production of the G3 in November 2018, and as of July 31, 2020, delivered 18,741. It started production of the P7 and began delivery in May 2020, and as of July 31, 2020, it had delivered 1,966 EVs. The P7 has a range of more than 400 miles. It plans to launch a third Smart EV, a sedan, in 2021. The G3 was among the top-three best-selling electric SUVs in China in 2019.\nXPeng is interesting because it has a platform strategy and is moving aggressively into autonomous driving. It uses a platform strategy to expand product offerings by launching one Smart EV model each year to broaden the addressable market. It builds new models on two highly flexible Smart EV platforms, called David and Edward, respectively. The David platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,600 millimeters to 2,800 millimeters, and the Edward platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,800 millimeters to 3,100 millimeters. It also adopted a platform approach for software systems.\nXPeng claims to be developing an autonomous driving capability for its EVs. The P7 is the first production vehicle to feature the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Xavier system-on-a-chip (SoC) autonomous driving platform. The company's Smart Electric Platform Architecture (SEPA) runs on 2 chips - NVIDIA for the XPILOT and Qualcomm's Snapdragon™ 820A for intelligent services and infotainment, including cameras inside and outside, radars, HD-map, and ultrasonic sensors. Like Tesla, it claims it can create sufficiently-autonomous driving without lidar.\nTo enhance brand recognition and allow more people to experience its Smart EVs, it deployed a small number of Smart EVs in a ride-hailing service in Guangzhou on a trial basis, but it has no current plan to scale up a ride-hailing service.\nXpeng sees first-quarter 2021 deliveries rising 450% year-over-year to 12,500 vehicles. Revenues are expected to increase 533% from a year ago. The company didn't provide bottom-line estimates for the quarter, but will likely post another net loss as it ramps up manufacturing, invests in R&amp;D, and builds out a new manufacturing plant set to open in 2022.\nXpeng reported selling 12,964 vehicles in Q4 2020, up 303% from a year ago. It delivered a total of 27,041 vehicles in 2020, up 112%. It makes the P7 sedan, a rival to the made-in-China Tesla Model 3, and the small G3 SUV.\nThe stock opened on August 27, 2020 at a price of $15 and a valuation of $11 billion, but its stock jumped more than 40% shortly after. Its current valuation is about $35 billion at a stock price of approximately $36.13 per share. It had about $300 million in revenue in 2019 with a loss of about $500 million.\nNio (NIO)\nUnlike previous companies, Nio has been a public company for some time. It originally went public in the U.S. back in September of 2018, selling IPO shares at $6.26 and raising $1 billion.\nNio's IPO was far from smooth. After going public at $6.26 per share, it traded down to nearly $1. Then in the middle of the coronavirus outbreak, Nio received a much-needed investment of $1 billion from investors, including state-backed entities.\nNio designs, jointly manufactures, and sells smart and connected premium electric vehicles, attempting to develop next-generation technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving, and artificial intelligence. Joint manufacturing means that it uses a state-owned contract manufacturer to build its cars.\nNio plans to provide customers with comprehensive, convenient, and innovative charging solutions and other user-centric services. It began deliveries of the ES8, a 7-seater high-performance premium electric SUV in China in June 2018, and its variant, the six-seater ES8, in March 2019. Nio officially launched the ES6, a 5-seater high-performance premium electric SUV, in December 2018 and began deliveries in June 2019. It officially launched the EC6, a 5-seater smart premium electric Coupe SUV, in December 2019 with deliveries in 2020.\nNio sold 17,353 EVs in Q4/2020 and 43,728 for the year. It warned a shortage in chips and batteries will force a production slowdown to 7,500 a month in Q2 from 10,000 vehicles a month in February.\nNio currently trades at more than $43 per share, including a big jump recently, for a valuation of approximately $48 billion. It had revenue of $2.3 billion in 2019 for a loss of $3.8 billion.\nSummary\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this should provide exciting new investment opportunities. However, the investment terrain is complex. There are dozens of new start-ups where the public can now invest that were previously exclusively venture capital investment opportunities. Many of these are following different roads to success. There are legacy auto manufacturers that could prosper or get destroyed in this transition. There are some exciting new EV company opportunities in China. And then there is Tesla.\nThis EV roadmap is intended to help investors explore different roads to investment by explaining the basic strategies for these EV companies. These roads can have different opportunities and risks, and the roadmap helps to frame these. Above all, valuation is an overriding risk that is highlighted throughout this article.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>New Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNew Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-19 14:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.\nLast October, I wrote a popular article providing...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车","01211":"比亚迪股份","NKLA":"Nikola Corporation","LI":"理想汽车","GP":"GreenPower Motor Company Inc.","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","GOEV":"Canoo Inc.","WKHS":"Workhorse Group, Inc.","F":"福特汽车","002594":"比亚迪","TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来","FSR":"菲斯克","HYLN":"Hyliion Holdings Corp."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1196402560","content_text":"Summary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.\nLast October, I wrote a popular article providing a roadmap for investing in electric vehicles, but since then, so much has changed: new entrants, new strategies, fluctuating valuations, etc.\nSo, I updated and greatly expanded the previous EV investment roadmap.\nThis update includes a deeper look at valuations for 23 EV companies with revenue projections, when available.\nIt also classifies these EV companies into their primary market categories and summarizes their different strategies.\n\nPhoto by Sven Loeffler/iStock via Getty Images\nMy article Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap published five months ago, was popular, and some followers have requested an update. Many new EV companies entered the market, most of them through SPACs. Valuations fluctuated wildly, and there has been a great deal of publicity around these companies.\nThis new updated EV investment roadmap is greatly expanded. In addition to updating the strategies and progress of companies previously discussed, I expanded the number of companies covered. This article also groups EV companies into their primary markets, enabling better comparisons and evaluation of market opportunities. In addition, it includes a comparative valuation chart showing every company's market cap with a comparison to projected revenue, where possible. This takes advantage (good or bad) of looking at the long-term revenue forecasts provided in SPAC mergers that public companies can't make.\nIn addition to the EV manufacturers discussed here, there are also EV investment opportunities in charging station companies, battery manufacturers, and battery materials companies. These were covered in the original roadmap and may also be updated in a later article.\nApproximately 2 million EVs were sold in 2019, and although the number declined along with all auto sales in 2020, it is forecasted to increase in 2021 and reach 8-10 million by 2025. Some forecast that EV sales will be greater than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2030, or even earlier. The automobile market appears to be moving toward a historical transformation, and exceptional investment gains can be made by anticipating new emerging industries and investing in the eventual winners of those new industries. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)are obvious examples. Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to create a new emerging industry.\nThere are also significant risks. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to be released in the next three years, which will drive rapid growth in EV sales. However, the expected sales from these new models, as well as the increasing expectations from Tesla, most likely exceed the total projected market. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the companies covered here won't exist five years from now. It reminds me of the internet bubble of the late 1990s when scores of internet-based companies went public with little or no revenue. Almost all of these failed within three years -- however, a couple, including Amazon, went on to enormous success.\nEVs provide a major new investment opportunity with high risks. To succeed, you need to have a clear EV investment roadmap.\nSo, how can you invest in this new emerging market? The EV landscape is complex and investment opportunities are varied. While Tesla is the unquestioned leader in EVs, some consider it overvalued and unlikely to show exceptional returns to new investors. The current U.S. legacy automakers are committed to introducing many new EVs in the next few years, and they have some entrenched advantages with volume manufacturing capabilities, a dealer infrastructure, and loyal customers. There are exciting new EV start-ups in the U.S. that have come public this year, mostly through Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), and there are several interesting publicly traded Chinese EV manufacturers.\nThis new roadmap for EV investment classifies companies into three primary markets segments:\n\nTheConsumer Retailsegment includes EVs sold to consumers individually, such as SUVs, pickup trucks, sedans, etc.\nTheCommercial Deliverysegment includes local delivery EV vans and trucks sold to fleets.\nTheMedium- and Long-Haul Truckingsegment includes heavier Class 4 - Class 8 trucks, as well as special industrial vehicles.\n\nIn addition, it categorizesLegacy ManufacturersandChinese EV Companies. This enables investors to evaluate investment opportunities by considering unique opportunities within each market segment.\nThere is an enormous amount of investment optimism for EVs, and retail investors have been aggressively buying into EV stocks with seemingly no regard for valuation. Then there is the additional challenge of valuing companies with no revenue, especially those coming public through SPACs. So, valuation is an important investment consideration.\nSo let's start by looking at an overview of comparative EV valuations.\nEV Investment Valuation Overview\nThe following chart summarizes valuations for 23 EV companies, including several legacy companies. For SPACs, market cap estimates are computed using the pro forma number of shares at closing, otherwise using the valuation of the SPAC prior to closing drastically underestimates the valuation, which may be misleading to novice investors. Price/Sales ratios (market cap divided by revenue) are used to compare valuations. As a benchmark, current P/S ratios vary. For example, auto and truck companies have a ratio of 2.7X. Software companies have the highest ratios of over 10X.\nIn the chart, companies that currently have revenue show current P/S ratios. Where projections are available, projected P/S ratios are computed. A note of caution, however. Many of the EV companies came public through SPACs and published their projections (which public companies cannot do), and many of these are likely to prove unrealistic.\nAll of the longer-term revenue projections come from the company (C) forecasts with a SPAC. Some of these may turn out to be accurate, not many are most likely unrealistic. Some, like Lucid, Faraday, and Arrival forecast hitting more than $10 billion in revenue in a few years, when it took Tesla more than 10. Things are different now and they might achieve these, but they could also find that it will take longer to complete development, ramp up production, and create enough customer demand. Many companies may also find that there will be significant capital requirements to achieve this type of growth, and shareholders will be diluted.\n\nTesla, the \"gold standard\" in EVs, has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, which many people believe is overvalued. Its market cap is approximately 20X 2020 revenue and 10X estimated 2022 revenue.\nTesla (TSLA)\nIn the U.S., and to a lesser extent in China, Tesla is the dominant EV provider. It has approximately 60% of the U.S. EV market and about 20% of the market in China. I own a Tesla and love it, but an investment in Tesla stock requires getting comfortable with its valuation. Tesla has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, although declining lately, which some consider still overvalued while others see upside potential.\nThe investment opportunity with Tesla is based on the expectation that it will continue to dominate the EV market, or at least maintain significant market share, despite much greater competition from the expected introduction of hundreds of new EV models in the next few years.\nThere is a great deal already published about Tesla, so I'll move on.\nLegacy Automakers\nSome people think that the legacy automakers will simply fade away. Historically, that was the case in some other industries, but it is not going to happen to most automakers. They are not standing still waiting to become obsolete. Most have aggressive strategies to replace ICE vehicles with EVs. GM plans to invest $27 billion and build and launch as many as 30 new EV models by 2025. Ford plans to invest $29 billion in EVs by 2025 and launch as many as 16 EVs in the next two years. Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY)has also committed billions to develop new EVs.\nThe competitive advantage that legacy automakers have in selling their new EVs is their dealer network. Will new EV customers prefer to continue going to their regular auto dealer to buy their new EV?\nAlmost all legacy automakers worldwide are developing and launching EVs including Volkswagen, Peugeot, Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi, Hyundai/Kia. Let's look a little more closely at GM and Ford as the leaders in the U.S.\nGeneral Motors (GM)\nGM has committed to introducing 20 new electric vehicles by 2023, including EVs across Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC, and Buick. It recently announced that it has already sold out the first-year production of its Hummer electric pickup. By mid-decade, it expects to sell a million EVs per year in its two largest markets: North America and China. As a reference point, Tesla reported deliveries of 367,500 vehicles globally in 2019.\nGM has a solid platform strategy for its EVs. It plans on building its EVs using five interchangeable drive units and three different motors from its Ultium Drive System platform. Ultium energy options range from 50 to 200 kWh, which could enable an estimated range of up to 400 miles. Most of its EVs will have 400-volt battery packs and up to 200 kW fast-charging capability while the truck platform will have 800-volt battery packs and 350 kW fast-charging capabilities.\nThe key building blocks of the Ultium battery system are large-scale, high-energy cells. Engineered in partnership with LG Energy Solutions, they use both advanced chemistry and a smart cell design that's optimized for a broad portfolio of EVs. GM engineers and scientists are actively researching and testing new elements in battery chemistry to lower costs and improve charge times. Ultium can contain either vertically- or horizontally-stacked cells to integrate into vehicle design: vertically for trucks, SUVs, and crossovers, or horizontally for cars and performance vehicles. As new chemistry is developed and becomes available, the battery management system could digitally update the modules.\nGM also has other EV opportunities with its BrightDrop commercial EV service and its Cruise subsidiary. BrightDrop will not just sell delivery EVs, it will provide an entire service platform for commercial delivery customers. Its set of electric delivery vehicles starts with the EV600 and includes the BrightDrop EP1, a pod-like electric pallet. SeeGeneral Motors' Aggressive EV/AV Strategies May Payoff Big.\nWith its highest stock price of $61.65, GM's current market cap is approximately $89 billion, increasing primarily because of its progress with EVs. This approximately 3X valuation in 2018, but still only 13% of Tesla.\nFord (F)\nFord is also investing heavily in EVs. It just introduced the Mustang Mach-E, a battery-powered crossover with sports car styling, and plans to introduce an all-electric version of its best-selling F-150 pickup later this year. Also, planned is an electric edition of the full-size Transit van, which has been popular in the commercial delivery market. Ford has confirmed plans to build a luxury Lincoln crossover on a battery-powered platform provided by Rivian. The automaker also plans to introduce two new midsize electric crossovers, one each for the Ford and Lincoln brands by 2023.\nMustang Mach-E. Source: Ford\nFord's market cap is approximately $51 billion, twice its previous market cap, and also increasing.\nConsumer Retail EV Companies\nThe consumer retail market has some unique characteristics for new EV companies. Sales are made individually, not in fleets. This diversifies the risk upon launch because only a sufficient number of customers need to be attracted to the new EV. A wave of popularity can provide terrific momentum.\nHowever, the lack of a dealer network can be an impediment. Selling EVs directly to consumers instead of through dealers is prohibited in most states. By law, auto manufacturers can't compete with franchised dealers. These are laws that go back many decades to protect dealers. This can be a major impediment for new companies without established independent dealer franchises. So, new AV companies. like Tesla, need to sell their vehicles online. Tesla has successfully done this, but it took a lot of work and time. Lack of a dealer network also creates impediments in service.\nIn addition, over the next 4-5 years, autonomous capabilities will be increasingly important to luxury vehicles. This may prove to be a challenge to start-up EV companies because they can't afford to develop this technology.\nLet's look closer at the alternative consumer retail EV investments.\nLucid Motors (CCIV)\nLucid was founded in 2007 under the name Atieva and originally focused on building electric vehicle batteries and powertrains for other vehicle manufacturers. The company rebranded itself as Lucid Motors in October 2016 and shifted its strategy to develop an all-electric, high-performance, luxury vehicle. Shortly after that, it encountered financial difficulties and struggled to get short-term funding. In 2018 it raised more than $1 billion in investment, primarily from Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund, and gave up a majority of the company.\nLucid Motors reached an agreement to become a publicly-traded company through a merger with the SPAC Churchill Capital IV Corp., in one of the largest deals SPAC EV deals. The combined company, in which Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund will continue to be the largest shareholder, had a transaction equity value of $11.75 billion (for $10/share). At the same time, it closed a PIPE investment priced at $15 a share, giving it an implied pro forma equity value of $24 billion. Rumors about this deal circulated before the transaction was formally announced, making it one of the most anticipated SPAC deals. The hype and speculation drove up the stock price of Churchill Capital IV Corp. from its opening price of $10 a share to almost $60. I believe that some of this may have been driven by novice SPAC investors who didn't realize that the valuation of CCIV didn't include the eventual valuation of Lucid. The share price dropped more than 30% after the details of the deal were announced. It's also likely that Lucid renegotiated the terms of the merger based on the price jump.\nThe company's first product is the Lucid Air, a well-equipped luxury electric vehicle that features 406 miles of projected range and 480 horsepower with a starting price of $77,400, or $69,900 after the U.S. Federal Tax Credit of $7,500. This new Lucid Air model is positioned as a high-performance, ultra-efficient luxury EV sedan in a line of future vehicles that are expected to include Lucid Air Touring, Grand Touring, and Dream Edition versions.\nThe company plans to begin production and deliveries of the Lucid Air in North America in the second half of 2021. Previously the company aimed to begin deliveries earlier in 2021. It intends to sell the car in Europe in 2022, followed by China in 2023. Lucid vehicles will be produced at its new factory in Casa Grande, Arizona. The company plans to expand the factory in phases in the coming years to have the capacity to produce 365,000 units per year at scale. The initial phase of the $700 million factory construction was completed late last year and will have the capacity to produce 30,000 vehicles a year.\nLucid also apparently has a commitment to build an assembly plant in Saudi Arabia, which was rumored to be a condition of the $1 billion investment from the Saudi public fund. The Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund also provided $600 million in bridge financing and invested in the SPAC deal as well. So, while this assembly plant may be expensive and may not be critical, it will most likely need to happen.\nLucid has ambitious plans to achieve $14 billion in revenue in 2025, and its current stock price at $29.17, which gives it a market cap of more than $46 billion, may already reflect those ambitions. Its market cap is roughly the same as Ford.\nFisker (FSR)\nFisker, which had its origins with Fisker Automotive, is an interesting story that ended in bankruptcy. Henrik Fisker originally co-founded Fisker Automotive in 2007. He was responsible for designing many premium cars such as the Aston Martin. Subsequently, Fisker Automotive had to deal with a Tesla lawsuit against Fisker Automotive alleging it stole Tesla's technology, a controversial $528.7 million conditional loan from the Department of Energy, a recall of its battery produced by A123, and the loss of several hundred vehicles in hurricane Sandy. Henrik Fisker resigned in March 2013 because of disagreements over business strategy and in November 2013, Fisker filed its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case.\nHowever, Henrik Fisker retained the Fisker brand and trademarks, and in 2016 he started another electric vehicle company named Fisker Inc. with the Fisker brand and trademarks. In 2019, Fisker shifted from developing a sports car with a solid-state battery to the Ocean SUV featuring a lithium-ion battery, which it later abandoned for a solid-state battery.\nFisker is positioning itself in a unique segment for those who want the most environmentally friendly EV. While this may be an early growth segment for EVs, it's difficult to estimate its eventual competitive advantage and the size of this environmentally-friendly market segment.\nThe Ocean is a crossover made of recycled metal and plastic with an expected base price of $37,499, and an expected lease of less than $400 a month. Fisker's plan is essentially a lease-only business model that lets customers keep a vehicle for years or return it at any time. It aims to source motors, batteries, and other components from technical partnerships with automakers and will outsource production from existing auto plants. Fisker is currently taking reservations at $250 for the Ocean. It also announced an agreement with Foxconn to jointly develop a vehicle pioneering a new market segment to be sold globally under the Fisker brand commencing in Q4 2023. at the end of 2022. Production will start at Magna Steyr's manufacturing facilities in Europe. At the end of February 2021, it had 12,467 cancellable reservations.\nFisker Ocean. Source: Fisker\nFisker went public using a SPAC (Spartan Energy). The original combination with SPAQ in October 2020 was valued at $2.9 billion with a cash investment of approximately $1 billion. The stock currently trades at approximately $21 per share, after reaching a high of $28.50, from the original price of $10, which is a market cap of $4.6 billion. Fisker projects $3.3 billion in revenue in 2023. It had almost $1 billion in cash at the end of 2020 and expected to use almost half of this in 2021: $250 million on operating expenses and $250 million in capital investments. If the Ocean is delayed into 2023, Fisker risks missing its revenue objective and will potentially need additional cash to complete development and launch.\nFaraday Future (PSAC)\nFaraday Future was originally established in May 2014 by Chinese businessman Jia Yueting. It is headquartered in Los Angeles and has offices in Silicon Valley, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu. Faraday Future also had a turbulent history. In 2016, it struggled financially, and in 2017 some key executives departed over a dispute about financial issues. They later founded Canoo.\nIn December 2018 the company announced layoffs due to a cash crunch and financial troubles. The company's founder Jia Yueting filed for personal bankruptcy in the United States' federal court in Delaware on October 14, 2019. Following Jia's personal bankruptcy, he decided to step down from his role as CEO of Faraday Future in order to assume a new position as the Chief Product and User Officer. He was replaced as CEO by Carsten Breitfeld, the former CEO at rival electric vehicle startup Byton.\nSomehow, Faraday was able to raise $2.3 billion in private funding over 5 rounds from a variety of investors. In early 2018, it received $1.5 billion in funding from an undisclosed investor from Hong Kong.\nFaraday's flagship product offering will be the FF 91, featuring 1,050 HP, 0-60 mph in less than 2.4 seconds, zero gravity seats with the largest 60-degree reclining angles, and a user experience designed to create a mobile, connected, and luxurious living space. The FF 91 is targeted to launch in 2022.\nFF 91. Source: Faraday Future\nIts strategic partners include one of China's top three OEMs and a critical Chinese city, which the company believes will help establish its presence in the Chinese vehicle market.\nFaraday Future plans several cars based on its Variable Platform Architecture. FF 91 is the first production vehicle and flagship model. Pricing will range between $120,000 and upwards of $200,000, which places it against formidable opponents. Faraday Future is already looking forward to expanding its range with a pair of smaller models named FF 81 and FF 71. The FF 81 is planned to be priced at $75,000 to 95,000 with a 2023 release. The FF 71 is planned to be priced at $45,000 to $65,000 with a planned release of 2024.\nThe Primary Manufacturing Facility for FF 91 is in Hanford, CA with contract manufacturing for future models in Gunsan, South Korea.\nFaraday Future is planning high-Level automation with a Level-3 capable system using a redundant safety architecture based on NVIDIA Xavier System-on-a-chip. It will be capable of highway auto-drive and hardware ready for advanced auto-drive. It is targeting full autonomous valet parking & summon in any parking lot or structure. Eventually, it expects full auto-drive, including full 360˚ sensor coverage for advanced auto-drive & auto-park features.\nIn January 2021, Faraday Future announced that the company would go public through a reverse merger with the special purpose acquisition company Property Solutions Acquisition Corp. (PSAC). The combined company will be valued at $3.4 billion. Faraday Future is expected to set up contract manufacturing operations in China through their partnership with Geely. Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn is also expected to serve as an additional strategic partner.\nFaraday Future projects $10.5 billion in revenue in 2024 and $21.5 billion in 2025. Revenue is expected to start in 2022 with the delivery of 2,400 vehicles for $504 million. Most likely these projections could prove to be optimistic. At a current stock price of approximately $12.80, it has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nLordstown Motors (RIDE)\nLordstown Motors based in Lordstown, Ohio, was originally founded in 2018 by Steve Burns, the former CEO of Workhorse Group. The company licensed technology from Workhorse in return for royalties and a 10% ownership. Lordstown is named after the famous GM Lordstown manufacturing plant, which it acquired in November 2019 in an unusual transaction. GM announced that it was closing the plant and was under a great deal of pressure for that decision. So, GM \"sold\" the plant to a company that was renamed Lordstown for an estimated $20 million that it loaned to the acquiring company. Subsequently, the sale was redefined to be part of a $75 million investment by GM, of which $50 million was an in-kind exchange for the plant.\nLordstown went public through the SPAC DiamondPeak Holdings Corp. in 2020. It currently has more than 400 employees.\nIts first product is the Lordstown Endurance, a full-sized EV pickup truck. Lordstown is positioning Endurance for the pickup fleet market segment. The expected price is $52,000+, and it claimed to have more than 100,000 pre-orders by January 2021. However, a recent research article published by a short seller claimed \"Our research has revealed that Lordstown's order book consists of fake or entirely non-binding orders, from customers that generally do not even have fleets of vehicles.\" Lordstown is disputing that article.\nIt believes the fleet pickup market segment is underserved with no current EV-focused competition. It estimates that the full-sized pick-up truck fleet market is 1.2 million vehicles per year in the U.S., but it's more fragmented than other truck fleets. Pickup \"fleets\" tend to be much smaller and local, so there may not be much of a market distinction for a small company buying several EV pickups from a traditional auto dealer. About half of the total U.S. pickup market is classified as fleet sales, meaning more than one.\nEven though Lordstown is targeting the commercial fleet market, it is a similar product to the Ford EV F-150. So I classify it in the consumer EV category. It is a class 2 vehicle. Lordstown also may enter the SUV market in the longer-term.\nThe Endurance will compete against future models from Rivian and Tesla, as well as Ford and GM in ICE pick-ups and their upcoming EV pick-ups. Ford plans on selling its EV F-150 in mid-2022. Initial production of the Endurance is expected in the second half of 2021, so it may have a short market advantage. Nevertheless, it forecasts selling 65,000 vehicles in 2023 and 107,000 in 2024. These estimates could be a large percentage of the EV pick-up market in those years.\nAt the SPAC merger, the implied valuation for Lordstown was $1.6 billion, including a $500 million PIPE and the $75 million by GM. Lordstown's financial projections appear to be aggressive. It projects to start shipping the Endurance in late 2021 with projected revenue in 2022 of $1.7 billion, increasing to $5.8 billion in 2024. Its stock price at approximately $13.60 values the company at a market cap of approximately $2.2 billion. The value of the company depends on the likelihood of achieving its projections.\nA fleet sales strategy makes sense for Lordstown since it would be too expensive to build a retail sales and service capability. However, it's not clear that this will become a distinct competitive advantage. Some small fleets may still prefer to buy their EV pickups from established local dealers with service capabilities.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nCanoo started as Evelozcity in 2017 and rebranded as Canoo in the spring of 2019. Canoo is a Los Angeles-based company that develops electric vehicles. It has over 350 employees. Canoo has designed a modular electric platform purpose-built to deliver maximum vehicle interior space, which is adaptable to support a wide range of vehicle applications for consumers and businesses. Canoo expects to launch its first consumer model in 2022, simply named the Canoo that will be available by subscription, followed shortly after by a multi-purpose delivery vehicle and a sports vehicle, each built off of the same underlying platform. Canoo went public using a SPAC (Hennessy Capital Acquisition) and now trades as GOEV.\nCanoo's all-electric skateboard-like platform is designed to support both consumer retail and commercial vehicle configurations. The EV leverages Canoo's flat skateboard architecture for a high level of usable interior space. Its commercial vehicle program, expected in 2023, addresses a projected $50B+ last-mile delivery market with an EV platform that maximizes cargo volume.\nHyundai Motor Group said it would jointly develop an electric vehicle platform with the company.\nCanoo's platform strategy is interesting. It could be used as an EV platform for custom fleets of delivery vehicles. It has no AV development, but it claims to be \"AV Ready\" which could be useful for AV companies wanting to build custom AV delivery fleets.\nIts all-electric multi-purpose delivery vehicle is expected to be priced starting at approximately $33,000. It is based on Canoo's proprietary electric platform and will be offered in two initial size variants, with others to follow. Limited availability will begin in 2022, with scaled production and launch planned for 2023. Customers can pre-order the multi-purpose delivery vehicle for a refundable deposit of $100 per vehicle\nIt plans to offer two multi-purpose delivery vehicles: the MPDV1 and the larger MPDV2. The first has a 200-foot cargo volume and a range of 130-200 miles. It offers more capacity than today's ICE delivery vehicles at an affordable price with urban mobility enabled by a space-efficient footprint. The vehicle is also designed to fit within many height-restricted areas like parking garages.\nThe MPDV2 has a cargo volume of 450 feet and a range of 90-190 miles. Its roof and step-in height enable individuals to easily walk-in the vehicle and accommodate a standing position while inside.\nThe original SPAC transaction provided approximately $600 million, with a pro forma equity value of approximately $2.4 billion. Like other SPAC mergers, its stock price has fluctuated. It currently trades at about $15.90 per share for a market cap of approximately $3.7 billion. Canoo projects $2.0 billion in revenue in 2025 from about $500 million in engineering services, $1.2 billion from its consumer vehicle subscriptions, and the remainder from its commercial program. Canoo expects revenue of more than $300 million in 2022 after the launch of its lifestyle consumer vehicle.\nSince its first products are aimed at consumers, as is most of its forecasted 2025 revenue, I categorize it primarily as a consumer EV company. However, I think the design of that Canoo vehicle may not attract enough customers. More importantly, its subscription service way of selling its EV to consumers is risky. I think it has more potential in the commercial market, however, a dual strategy (consumer and commercial) is challenging. I like its skateboard platform design and that could prove to be a competitive advantage.\nRivian\nAlthough not yet public, I include Rivian because it has plans for an IPO as soon as Sept 2021, although it could slip into 2022. There are rumors that the company is targeting a market valuation of approximately $50B. Rivian has already raised more than $8 billion to date from Amazon, Ford, T. Rowe Price, and others.\nRivian has developed and vertically integrated a connected electric platform that can be flexibly applied to a range of applications, including the company's adventure products, as well as B2B products such as the Amazon last-mile delivery vans. The company's initial products, the R1T and R1S, provide a combination of performance, off-road capability, and utility. These vehicles will be produced at Rivian's manufacturing plant in Normal, Ill., with customer deliveries expected to begin in summer 2021. The launch of the R1S three-row electric SUV will follow in August.\nAdditional lower-priced models are being planned. The expected R2 series would include at least two smaller electric vehicles to coincide with the smaller platform, then another platform for R3.\nCommercial Delivery EV Companies\nEV truck companies differ based on the type of truck they are developing. The technology and markets are very different, so I separate them into two categories. The first category includes commercial delivery vehicles.\nCompanies making EV delivery vehicles have some major advantages that could make them good investments. First, delivery vehicles typically travel less than 250 miles during a day, so they can be conveniently recharged overnight. Secondly, they are typically sold in large quantities to fleets. This means that building a retail sales infrastructure is not necessary. It only requires a small salesforce. In addition, maintenance can also be provided at the fleet's operational center, so not as many service centers are required.\nThe disadvantage in this market is that there are a relatively small number of customers that buy in large volumes, so if the EV manufacturer can't get enough large customers, they may not be able to stay in business. GM estimates the combined market opportunity for parcel and food delivery, as well as reverse logistics, in the U.S. will be more than $850 billion by 2025.\nThe commercial market is expected to be a major growth area for EVs. Other start-up automakers like Rivian as well as legacy automakers such as Ford, Daimler, and GM have announced plans to enter the segment. GM recently announced its BrightDrop ecosystem for commercial customers that includes an all-new electric delivery van, the EV600 available by the end of 2021, as well as an integrated autonomous pallet and related services.\nThis group of EV companies focuses primarily on commercial delivery. In general, these are in the light-duty trucks category, although it also includes some medium-duty trucks. This generally includes the following commercial truck classes:\n\nClass 1: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 0-6,000 pounds or 0-2,722 kilograms.\nClass 2: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 6,001-10,000 pounds or 2,722-4,536 kilograms.1\nClass 3: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 10,001-14,000 pounds or 4,536-6,350 kilograms.\n\nIt can also include somewhat larger medium-duty EV delivery trucks:\n\nClass 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.\nClass 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.\n\nEV delivery trucks also have an advantage over ICE vehicles because they can have a greater delivery storage space. Smaller buses and transit vehicles are also included in this category.\nLast-mile package delivery is not an immediate-term autonomous vehicle opportunity because it requires a delivery person to be on the truck anyway.\nWorkhorse Group (WKHS)\nWorkhorse has been a public company for ten years. Originally AMP Electric Vehicles, it was established in 2007 as a developmental-stage vehicle electrification company, focusing on conversions. AMP Electric Vehicles went public in 2010 trading on the OTC market under the AMPD symbol. When the economic benefits of conversion became less certain, it pivoted away from passenger vehicles and began to focus on electrifying commercial vehicles. AMP acquired the Workhorse brand and the Workhorse custom chassis assembly plant in Union City. In March of 2013, AMP formally changed its name to Workhorse Group Incorporated.\nThe Company designs and builds a last-mile delivery electric vehicle. The C-Series EVs cover the larger size of commercial delivery vehicles in Classes 3-5. As part of its solutions, it also develops cloud-based, real-time telematics performance monitoring systems. It sells its vehicles to fleet customers directly and through its primary distributor, Ryder Systems. It is currently focused on bringing the C-Series electric delivery truck to market and fulfilling the existing backlog of orders.\nThe C-Series looks like a viable EV replacement for the 350,000 last-mile delivery vehicles sold in the U.S. annually. It recently announced an increased driving range from 100 miles to 160, which should open more market opportunities. It has a viable short-term go-to-market strategy selling fleets to delivery companies. It currently has test vehicles with UPS, DHL, FedEx, Amazon, and Walmart.\nWorkhorse recently lost out on the United States Postal Services Next Generation Delivery Vehicle project, however, it is in the process of challenging this decision. Additionally, its investment in Lordstown also provides an indirect investment opportunity. On November 7, 2019, the Company entered a transaction with Lordstown Motors to grant LMC a perpetual and worldwide license to certain intellectual property relating to its W-15 electric pickup truck platform and related technology in exchange for royalties, equity interest (approximately 10%) in LMC, and other considerations. This was a $320 million asset for Workhorse at the end of 2020.\nWorkhorse received a significant increase in orders in Q4/2020 but built just seven trucks in the fourth quarter due to production systems and supply chain issues. Workhorse plans to continue to take it slow, striving to build three of its composite-body battery-electric trucks a day in March with a plan to reach 10 trucks a day by the end of June. This makes its original 2021 goal of producing 1,800 trucks unlikely. It partnered with Hitachi and Hitachi Capital America (\"HCA\") to improve the Company's manufacturing, operational, and supply chain capabilities as well as to develop a national dealer network to support Workhorse's sales with vehicle financing options for both dealers and customers.\nWorkhorse has a market cap of approximately $1.9 billion. While Workhorse had ongoing revenue, unlike many other new EV companies, its revenue is still insignificant. It had a revenue of $1.4 million in 2020 and $377,000 in 2019. It has a backlog of over 8,000 vehicles but doesn't expect to be able to build many of those in 2021. It raised $270 million in capital over several financings, providing the Company with additional capital to build its backlog. It had cash of $215 million as of March 1, 2021. Because Workhorse is a traditional public company, it hasn't made long-term financial projections like SPAC-based companies.\nElectric Last Mile (FIII)\nElectric Last Mile, based in Troy Michigan, was founded by Jason Luo, former CEO of Ford China before it was acquired by China's Ningbo Joyson Electronic for $920 million in 2016, including James Taylor, former CEO of GM's Hummer brand and former CEO of electric car maker Karma Automotive. Taylor serves as the company's top executive with Luo as the company's chairman.\nThe company plans to launch a small electric delivery van (class 1-2), called the UD-1, in the third quarter of 2021, and then introduce an Urban Utility vehicle (Class 2-3) in 2022. These are expected to compete with Workhorse, Rivian, Canoo, as well as the Ford eTransit and the GMC BV1, none of which is expected to be a Class 1 vehicle.\nThe company says it has 30,000 preorders for its van, representing more than $1 billion in sales. Electric Last Miles vehicles will be based on Sokon's commercial van made in China through a joint venture with Dongfeng Automobile Co Ltd. in order to accelerate development time.\nElectric Last Mile (ELM) is expected to manufacture the vans in a former General Motors Co. Hummer plant in Mishawaka, Ind., that the company is acquiring from China's Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co. Ltd. The plant has the capacity to produce 100,000 vehicles annually with plans to build approximately 4,000 UD-1 vans by the end of 2021. The UD-1 has a starting price of $32,500 and a range of 150 miles. The battery for the vehicle is expected to be supplied by the Chinese battery company CATL.\nELM believes that it has a competitive advantage because its first vehicle, the ELM Urban Delivery, is scheduled to be available in 2021. It is based on a proven, existing platform developed and sold by Sokon Group in the Asian market, where there are 30,000 of these electric delivery vehicles driving 1.5 million miles every day. At the close of the business combination, ELM will be an independent, U.S. company producing electric vehicles in the U.S. with Sokon Group providing access to its know-how, parts supply, and field and service data.\nELM expects that the Urban Delivery vehicle will be the first electric delivery vehicle coming to market in the class 1 category (GVW of 6,000 lbs or less) in the U.S. It will also have 35% more carrying volume compared to similar ICE delivery vehicles, a critical part of the value proposition. It also anticipates that its price and greater carrying volume will allow it to take market share from the class 2 category of vehicles as well.\nIts crossover product portfolio strategy targets commercial delivery vehicles spanning from class 1 to class 3, which represents over 80% of the last mile market.\nELM anticipates $122 million in revenue in 2021, rapidly increasing to $3 billion in 2025. The price of FIII stock increased immediately following its announcement with Electric Last Mile, rising more than 40% to $14.50, but now it has dropped closer to the original deal price to $10.25 for a market cap of approximately $1.5 billion.\nGreenPower Motor Company (GP)\nGreenPower Motor Company Inc. is a Canadian battery-electric bus manufacturer with multiple models of high- and low-floor vehicles, including transit buses, school buses, and shuttles. GreenPower offers commercial vehicles for delivery, public transit, schools, vanpooling, micro-transit, shuttles, and is developing a capability of autonomous operation. It went public on August 28, 2020.\nIn 2014 GreenPower launched its first purpose-built, battery-electric bus, the EV350, 40-foot transit bus. GreenPower received its first order in 2017 for ten EV350s from the City of Porterville, California.\nGreenPower's electric buses are purpose-built and designed to be all-electric, allowing it to put the battery and propulsion system in optimized locations that provide weight and structural advantages. Its primary EV is the EV Star with more than 120 vehicles delivered. It comes in several variations:\n\nEV Star - Up to 19 passengers\nEV Star Plus - Up to 24 passengers\nEV Star ADA - Passenger and curbside lift for ADA\nEV Star Cargo - 5,000 pounds of load\nEV Star Cargo Plus - 570 cubic feet of cargo space.\n\nIts EV school bus seats up to 90 students and has a range of up to 150 miles.\nGreenPower had revenue of $13.5 million in 2020 It has about $21 million in cash. It's an interesting alternative since it is already shipping EVs, has revenue, and also has a lower market cap of less than $1 billion. Since it did a traditional IPO, it hasn't published longer-term financial forecasts.\nArrival (CIIC)\nArrival was founded in 2015 in London to make a variety of commercial electric vehicles. It has approximately 1,200 employees across 11 cities in 8 countries. In November 2020, Arrival and the SPAC CIIG entered into a business combination agreement with an implied valuation of $5.39 billion.\nArrival plans on releasing four commercial EVs over the next few years.\n\nQ4/2021: An electric bus for 8-125 passengers and a range of 240-400km\nQ3/2022: An electric delivery van with a payload of 975-2,000kg and a range of 150-340km\n2022: A larger electric van with a payload of 4,000 kg and a range of 190-400km\n2023: a small vehicle platform with a range of 100-300km.\n\nThis mix provides a nice diversified portfolio of EVs. Arrival claims to have received orders from UPS for 10,000 vans. It plans a unique flexible manufacturing approach using micro-factories with each projected to manufacture 10,000 vans per year. All of its vehicles use a modular skateboard electric platform.\nArrival ambitiously projects $14.1 billion in revenue in 2024. Half of that revenue is expected from delivery vans, 22% from buses, and the rest from the large van and its small vehicle platform. With CIIC's stock price at $24.80 per share, Arrival's current market cap is relatively high at approximately $15.0 billion. Justifying its market cap depends on its ability to release, sell, and produce its four commercial EVs.\nProterra (ACTC)\nProterra is a commercial electric vehicle company with over a decade of production experience. The Company has designed an end-to-end, flexible technology platform that claims to deliver higher performance and a low total cost of ownership to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end customers.\nProterra, Inc., was originally founded in Golden, Colorado, by Dale Hill in 2004. Later the company wanted to take the lead in creating zero-emission, U.S.-based transit buses. In 2010 it moved its manufacturing plant from Golden, Colorado to Greenville, South Carolina. In 2015, Proterra was awarded a $3 million grant from the California Energy Commission to fund the design, development, and construction of the company's battery-electric transit bus manufacturing line in the City of Industry, California. It moved its headquarters from Greenville, South Carolina, to Burlingame, California, in October 2015. Proterra raised more than $600 million in funding.\nIt is going public through the SPAC ArcLight (ACTC) with a pro forma valuation of $1.6 billion. Upon completion of the transaction, Proterra expects to have up to $825 million in cash to fund growth initiatives, including R&D and the expansion of its next-generation battery program.\nProterra has three complementary businesses:\n\nProterra Powered: Delivering battery systems and electrification solutions to commercial vehicle manufacturers\nProterra Transit:Providing an electric transit bus OEMs\nProterra Energy:Offering turnkey charging and energy management solutions.\n\nThe company's battery systems have been proven in more than 16 million service miles driven by its fleet of transit vehicles and validated through partnerships with commercial vehicle OEMs. Proterra has produced and delivered more than 300 megawatt-hours of battery systems, more than 550 heavy-duty electric transit buses, and installed 54 megawatts of charging systems.\nProterra expected $193 million of revenue in 2020, with an estimated $750 million in existing orders and backlog. It projects $2.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with about 1/3 coming from its Transit business, and 2/3 From Powered & Energy. At ACTC's current stock price of $17.85, Proterra has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nRivian\nRivian (see earlier description in consumer retail) will also compete in the commercial delivery market. It has been working with Amazon (a major investor) to build large electric delivery vans for Prime. Developed specifically for Amazon, a small fleet of Prime vans is on the road now, testing deliveries to customers and gathering feedback. In late fall, it could grow to a large fleet as Rivian ramps up the volume.\nThe EV range of 150 miles is tailored to Amazon's use cycle to optimize the size, weight, and cost of the commercial vehicle. Rivian has three sizes of batteries, but Amazon is starting with just one of them.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nSee the previous summary under consumer retail EV.\nMedium and Long-Haul Trucking EV Companies\nCompanies developing medium- and long-haul EV trucks face a more difficult challenge with battery range. These trucks haul much more weight than commercial delivery vehicles and because they are designed for long distances, they can't stop every 200-300 miles for recharging.\nFor this reason, many of these companies are using unique hybrid technologies for their trucks. The EV trucks in this category are primarily heavy-duty but also include some medium-duty trucks and specialty vehicles. A couple of the companies focus on retrofitting trucks to be electric.\nMedium-Duty Trucks\nThe medium-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 4, 5, and 6:\n\nClass 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.\nClass 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.\nClass 6: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 19,501-26,000 pounds or 8,846-11,793 kilograms.1\n\nHeavy-Duty Trucks\nThe heavy-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 7 and 8:\n\nClass 7: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 26,001 to 33,000 pounds or 11,794-14,969 kilograms.\nClass 8: This class of trucks has a GVWR of greater than 33,001 pounds or 14,969 kilograms and includes all tractor-trailers.\n\nThe Tesla Semi is a battery vehicle planned for a range of 300 or 500 miles and a speed of 60 MPH with 80,000 lbs of cargo. Tesla plans to start shipping the Semi later this year when it expects to have sufficient cell volume to meet its needs with the production of its 4680 battery pack.\nNikola(NASDAQ:NKLA)\nNikola has been a very controversial company. Founded in 2015, it originally had two different strategies. Its primary strategy is to lease fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) Class-8 heavy trucks and provide the refueling infrastructure to corporate customers. Its second strategy was to develop the Badger EV truck using GM technology.\nNikola originally merged with a SPAC to go public, at an enterprise value of approximately $3.3 billion. On June 6th, 2020, its market cap jumped to more than $30 billion, then later it dropped because of problems with its originally planned deal with GM.\nNikola originally expected a deal with General Motors that included the production of the Nikola Badger EV pickup truck. The proposed arrangement was that GM would take a $2 billion equity stake in Nikola and in return would engineer and produce the Badger. In November 2020, GM and Nikola scrapped the original arrangement. Now it appears that GM will supply Nikola with only its Hydrotec hydrogen fuel-cell technology to integrate into the EV manufacturer's commercial class 7 and class 8 zero-emission semi-trucks. So, the Badger is probably dead.\nNikola now sees semi-trucks as the company's \"core business\" and fuel cells as an increasingly important segment of the semi-truck market thanks to their efficiency in weight and consumption. It expects to begin testing by the end of 2021.\nIt has received pre-orders from Anheuser-Busch and a few other companies, but it doesn't expect deliveries until 2023. Hydrogen fueling stations are key to its strategy, both providing a source of revenue and necessary fueling infrastructure for the trucks to operate, but they also cost a lot. In its March 2020 investor deck, Nikola said a single station capable of fueling 210 trucks a day would cost $16.6 million. Its initial planned network of 700 stations would cost roughly $11.6 billion.\nNikola was also accused of misrepresentation, and its executive chairman and founder stepped down.\nAt the time of the SPAC merger, it projected an optimistic forecast of more than $3 billion in revenue by 2024, with a net income of $145 million. Most of that revenue was expected to come from its Badger truck, which is no longer in the plans. Yet its market cap is still almost $6 billion.\nHyliion (HYLN)\nHyliion, founded in 2015 in Austin, went public in October 2020 through the SPAC Tortoise Acquisition Corp. (SHLL). In March 2019, automotive parts manufacturer Dana Inc. made an equity investment into Hyliion, and together they are manufacturing and marketing Class 8 EVs to Dana's customers, including Volvo, Navistar, and Peterbilt.\nHyliion's strategy is unique, and a very different strategy from Nikola. Essentially it generates electricity onboard the truck using compressed natural gas (CNG). This should be a benefit for longer-range trucking. Hyliion's Hypertruck concept involves an all-electric drivetrain utilizing Dana's electric motor, inverter, and axle technologies. The truck's batteries are fueled by onboard tanks of CNG. With some 700 CNG stations already operating nationwide, it believes that there no need to build out expensive superchargers or hydrogen infrastructure.\nKuwait-based logistics company, Agility, has already placed an order for 1,000 Hypertrucks with initial deliveries targeted in 2022. Combined with a fully electric drivetrain and a natural gas-powered onboard generator to recharge the battery, the Hypertruck ERX will provide more than 1,000 miles of range.\nHyliion will eventually compete with Nikola (FCEV) and the Tesla battery-based Semi, but it plans to have a longer range and lower operating costs. Its HyperTruck ERX is expected to be available in 2021. It also has a hybrid-electric truck.\nThe combination with SHLL had an estimated market cap of about $1.5 billion, with approximately $530 million going to the company, including a $325 million fully committed PIPE. At approximately $13.50 per share, its current market cap is approximately $2.2 billion, significantly down from its peak. Hyliion projects $2 billion in revenue in 2024, which it claims is only about 2% of the addressable market.\nXL Fleet (XL)\nXL Fleet is a 10-year old company that went public through the SPAC Pivotal. XL is different because it provides fleet electrification modifications for ICE trucks across a wide range of vehicle classes (class 2-5) and types. It has over 200 of the largest commercial and municipal fleets as customers, with more than 3,200 XL systems deployed and over 130 million miles driven by customers to date. XL's customer base includes FedEx, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Verizon, the City of Boston, Seattle Fire Department, Yale University, and Harvard University.\nXL's business model is essentially retrofitting existing trucks to be hybrids and then later expanding into fully electric truck conversions. It claims to be creating a fully integrated platform for this. It remains to be seen if the retrofitting business will continue to grow or will it diminish when more trucks are designed and manufactured with EV capabilities.\nUnlike some other EV companies that have no revenue yet because they are still developing products, XL is more of a small company doing low-volume retrofits. It had $7.2 million in revenue in 2019, $21 million in 2020, and estimates $76 million in 2021, but it forecasts $1.3 billion in revenue in 2024 in its investor presentation. It plans to do this by expanding its product line from hybrid to plug-in hybrid to fully electric across a broader range of trucks. It claims to have a $220 million sales pipeline for the next 12 months.\nShort-seller, Muddy Waters, claimed after talking to former XL Fleet employees, that it believed the company significantly exaggerated its order backlog, that the return on investment for the company's products was likely negative, and that it would not be able to compete with big car makers on electrification. The company thoroughly refuted these claims.\nThe original enterprise valuation was approximately $1.4 billion at a $10 share price for the merger. Its price jumped by about 35% but has since gone back down to $12.40 for a market cap of about $1.8 billion. Although XL Fleet has revenue and other EV companies don't, this may not be an advantage. It appears to be a small company for many years that has gone public at a high valuation with grand plans. The risks are in its ability to make a jump from $76 million in 2021 to $1.3 billion in 2024, as well as the question about retrofitting being replaced by new EV trucks by then.\nXos (NGAC)\nXos Trucks specializes in the field of manufacturing fully electric commercial vehicles. It features a software platform that is designed to accommodate an extensive variety of medium-duty bodies, wheelbase, and range requirements up to 200 miles. It was founded in 2016 and headquartered in North Hollywood, California. It received $20 million of investment in 2020 and now is going public through a merger with the SPAC ExtGen Acquisition Corporation (NGAC) at an estimated proforma value of $1.965 billion.\nIts focus is on medium- and heavy-duty last mile and return-to-base segments (class 5/6, class 6/7, and class 7/8) commercial fleets and specialty vehicles. Some vehicles are currently in production and in regular on-road operations with key fleet customers, and it claimed 6,000 unit orders in backlog.\nIts MD-platform is for classes 5-6 for pickup and delivery. Its HD X-Platform is an adaptable chassis for highway, vocational, and severe work conditions. Its market is for customers with highly predictable routes that allow for batteries designed for a more limited range. A significantly larger frame and smaller battery pack allow for reduced density.\nXos has a bundled all-in-one offering that allows fleets to access all the tools and services they need to go electric with a single point of contact at a fixed monthly expense.\nXos had $3 million in revenue in 2020 and estimates $14 million in 2021. However, it forecasts $5.2 billion in revenue in 2025. At the current stock price of $10.30, its market cap is approximately $2 billion, about the same as its original SPAC transaction.\nLion Electric (NGA)\nLion Electric is a Canadian company founded by Marc Bédard in 2008. Its focus is to be a leader in designing, developing, and manufacturing purpose-built urban electric vehicles; vehicles that are specifically designed as delivery trucks, refuse trucks, bucket trucks, moving trucks, school buses, and shuttle buses. It has over 300 all-electric vehicles on the road today.\nIn November 2020, it announced that it was going public through the SPAC NGA. The transaction had an estimated pro forma enterprise value of $1.5 billion.\nIt plans on seven new truck models and one new school bus, for a total of 15 all-electric vehicles, representing a full line-up from class 5 to class 8 electric trucks and a full line-up of electric school buses. Its vehicles are produced at its existing manufacturing plant, which has the capacity for the production of up to 2,500 vehicles per year. It intends to open a new plant in the U.S. capable of delivering over 20,000 Lion trucks and buses per year by 2022.\nIts all-electric class 6 and class 8 commercial urban trucks combine power, comfort, and modern technology. Custom-built chassis and cabin designed specifically for an all-electric heavy-duty vehicle. The LionC is an all-electric Type C school bus manufactured in North America. The body and chassis were specifically designed to deliver optimal performance. The LionM is an all-electric midi/minibus that meets paratransit and public transportation requirements. Created and designed specifically for the paratransit market, the is spacious and offers unique features that provide enhanced security and accessibility to the end-users.\nLion Electric had $29 million in revenue in 2020 and expects $204 million in 2021. It forecasts revenue to jump to $3.6 billion a few years later in 2024. Its current market cap is approximately $3.6 billion based on its current stock price of $18.33.\nLightning eMotors (GIK)\nLightning eMotors, formerly Lightning Systems, was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Loveland, Colorado. It provides fleet electrification for familiar commercial vehicle platforms by retrofitting them with its electric powertrains. Lightning eMotors produces electric fleet medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including delivery trucks, shuttle buses, passenger vans, ambulances, bucket trucks, chassis-cab models, and city transit buses. It focuses on urban commercial zero-emission vehicles with a full range of class 3 through class 7 battery-electric and fuel-cell electric vehicles.\nLighting eMotors helps commercial fleets achieve their sustainability goals by offering zero-emission battery-electric vans, trucks, and buses based on familiar, proven vehicles from manufacturers such as Ford and GM. It works with customers, to help them identify their unique commercial electric vehicle, charging, and grant support needs.\nThe Lightning products include integrated all-electric powertrains for the Ford Transit 350HD passenger and cargo vans, Ford E-450 shuttle bus and cutaway models, Ford F-59 step/food van, Ford F-550 cargo trucks and buses, Chevrolet 6500XD Low Cab Forward model, and 30-foot, 35-foot, and 40-foot transit buses.\nLightning has 120 vehicles on the road, and 1,500 vehicles already on order from customers. In addition to making vehicles and powertrains, Lightning also provides a full suite of charging solutions for customers.\nThe deal with GIK has an enterprise value of $650 million, although there is also an Earnout of 20.0% of total pro forma shares outstanding to Lightning eMotors shareholders if the stock crosses certain price thresholds.\nAt the current price, of $11.73, GIK has a market cap of approximately $1 billion, a little more than the original transaction valuation. Similar to XL Fleet, Lightning has the risk that retrofitting may only be an interim business opportunity until more EV trucks are produced.\nPublic Chinese EV Companies\nChina will be the biggest EV market opportunity, and EV start-ups may do better there because there isn't as much entrenched competition from domestic auto companies. China is already the largest EV market in the world, with almost a million EVs sold in 2019. Its EV market represents almost half of the global EV sales volume and is much larger than the U.S. market.\nThe Chinese government has ambitions to become a global leader in new energy vehicles. Soon after the coronavirus outbreak subsided within the country, Chinese authorities announced new policies to support the auto and electric vehicle industries.\nThese Chinese companies are traded through American depository shares (ADS) that contain certain risks. There are financial reporting and transparency risks with these companies, and on top of that, the newer companies are being classified as \"emerging growth\" companies that are already exempt from certain transparency requirements set out in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Like the previous EV stock, these stocks have also been very volatile.\nIn addition to legacy auto manufacturers like BYD, there are also three Chinese EV companies that are publicly traded through American depositary shares.\nBYD Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:BYDDY)\nBYD, which means build your dreams, is the automotive subsidiary of the Chinese multinational BYD Co Ltd. It was founded in January 2003, following BYD Company's acquisition of Tsinchuan Automobile Company. The company produces automobiles, buses, electric bicycles, forklifts, rechargeable batteries, and trucks. The current model range of automobiles includes electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and petrol-engined vehicles. Thirteen years ago, on the advice of his famously skeptical lieutenant, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett made a $232 million investment in BYD, a relatively unknown Chinese car company.\nBy parlaying BYD's rechargeable battery technology into a fast-growing carmaking operation, it gained a foothold in the fledgling electric vehicle market, building longer-lasting batteries and cheaper vehicles than American and Japanese manufacturers were managing to do at the time. In BYD, Buffett and Munger believed they had found a company with a shot at one day becoming the largest player in a global automobile market that was inevitably going electric.\nBYD's start to 2021 was strong with 19,871 plug-in electric cars sold in January in China, including hybrid plug-ins. That was a big increase over 2020 but not as much as 2019.\nLI Auto (LI)\nLixiang, formerly known as Chehejia (\"Car and Home\"), was founded in 2015 and went public in the U.S. on July 30th, 2020. It is a Beijing-based electric-vehicle startup with vertically integrated manufacturing. It designs, researches, manufactures, sells, and offers services featuring a few models of electric vehicles.\nThe company's SUVs are hybrids of a sort. They use electric motors (one on the front axle and one on the rear), but those motors are powered by a combination of a 40.5kWh battery packanda 1.2-liter turbocharged engine paired to a 45-liter fuel tank and a 100kW electric generator, which generates power for the battery pack in real-time. The idea is that the car can be driven for about 100 miles on battery power alone, but it has a total range of nearly 500 miles when leveraging the combustion engine generator.\nThe Company's primary product is an SUV under its brand Li ONE. It also sells peripheral products and provides related services, such as charging stalls, vehicle internet connection services, and extended lifetime warranties. Li Auto is looking to sell a variety of SUVs built on its hybrid technology that range from around $21,000 to about $70,000. The company started shipping its first model in late 2019. It's a midsize SUV is well-appointed and has lots of touchscreens and technology. A full-size premium version is planned for release in 2022.\nDeliveries of Li ONEs were 14,464 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a 67.0% quarter-over-quarter increase and setting a new quarterly record. Deliveries for the full year 2020 reached 32,624 vehicles. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $635 million.\nLI auto went public on July 30th, 2020, raising $1.1 billion at an initial price of $15.50 per share but quickly reached almost $24. It is currently valued at approximately $37 billion at a price of approximately $25.72 per share.\nXPeng (XPEV)\nXiaopeng (XPeng) Motors is a Chinese electric vehicle and technology company that designs and manufactures smart cars. It was founded in 2015 and went public on August 27, 2020, using American depository shares, raising about $1 billion. To date, it has raised about $2.6 billion.\nXPeng aims its EVs at technology-savvy middle-class Chinese consumers, with prices ranging from $22,000 to $45,000 after government subsidies. In some ways, it is a Tesla knock-off at a much lower price. XPeng started production of the G3 in November 2018, and as of July 31, 2020, delivered 18,741. It started production of the P7 and began delivery in May 2020, and as of July 31, 2020, it had delivered 1,966 EVs. The P7 has a range of more than 400 miles. It plans to launch a third Smart EV, a sedan, in 2021. The G3 was among the top-three best-selling electric SUVs in China in 2019.\nXPeng is interesting because it has a platform strategy and is moving aggressively into autonomous driving. It uses a platform strategy to expand product offerings by launching one Smart EV model each year to broaden the addressable market. It builds new models on two highly flexible Smart EV platforms, called David and Edward, respectively. The David platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,600 millimeters to 2,800 millimeters, and the Edward platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,800 millimeters to 3,100 millimeters. It also adopted a platform approach for software systems.\nXPeng claims to be developing an autonomous driving capability for its EVs. The P7 is the first production vehicle to feature the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Xavier system-on-a-chip (SoC) autonomous driving platform. The company's Smart Electric Platform Architecture (SEPA) runs on 2 chips - NVIDIA for the XPILOT and Qualcomm's Snapdragon™ 820A for intelligent services and infotainment, including cameras inside and outside, radars, HD-map, and ultrasonic sensors. Like Tesla, it claims it can create sufficiently-autonomous driving without lidar.\nTo enhance brand recognition and allow more people to experience its Smart EVs, it deployed a small number of Smart EVs in a ride-hailing service in Guangzhou on a trial basis, but it has no current plan to scale up a ride-hailing service.\nXpeng sees first-quarter 2021 deliveries rising 450% year-over-year to 12,500 vehicles. Revenues are expected to increase 533% from a year ago. The company didn't provide bottom-line estimates for the quarter, but will likely post another net loss as it ramps up manufacturing, invests in R&D, and builds out a new manufacturing plant set to open in 2022.\nXpeng reported selling 12,964 vehicles in Q4 2020, up 303% from a year ago. It delivered a total of 27,041 vehicles in 2020, up 112%. It makes the P7 sedan, a rival to the made-in-China Tesla Model 3, and the small G3 SUV.\nThe stock opened on August 27, 2020 at a price of $15 and a valuation of $11 billion, but its stock jumped more than 40% shortly after. Its current valuation is about $35 billion at a stock price of approximately $36.13 per share. It had about $300 million in revenue in 2019 with a loss of about $500 million.\nNio (NIO)\nUnlike previous companies, Nio has been a public company for some time. It originally went public in the U.S. back in September of 2018, selling IPO shares at $6.26 and raising $1 billion.\nNio's IPO was far from smooth. After going public at $6.26 per share, it traded down to nearly $1. Then in the middle of the coronavirus outbreak, Nio received a much-needed investment of $1 billion from investors, including state-backed entities.\nNio designs, jointly manufactures, and sells smart and connected premium electric vehicles, attempting to develop next-generation technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving, and artificial intelligence. Joint manufacturing means that it uses a state-owned contract manufacturer to build its cars.\nNio plans to provide customers with comprehensive, convenient, and innovative charging solutions and other user-centric services. It began deliveries of the ES8, a 7-seater high-performance premium electric SUV in China in June 2018, and its variant, the six-seater ES8, in March 2019. Nio officially launched the ES6, a 5-seater high-performance premium electric SUV, in December 2018 and began deliveries in June 2019. It officially launched the EC6, a 5-seater smart premium electric Coupe SUV, in December 2019 with deliveries in 2020.\nNio sold 17,353 EVs in Q4/2020 and 43,728 for the year. It warned a shortage in chips and batteries will force a production slowdown to 7,500 a month in Q2 from 10,000 vehicles a month in February.\nNio currently trades at more than $43 per share, including a big jump recently, for a valuation of approximately $48 billion. It had revenue of $2.3 billion in 2019 for a loss of $3.8 billion.\nSummary\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this should provide exciting new investment opportunities. However, the investment terrain is complex. There are dozens of new start-ups where the public can now invest that were previously exclusively venture capital investment opportunities. Many of these are following different roads to success. There are legacy auto manufacturers that could prosper or get destroyed in this transition. There are some exciting new EV company opportunities in China. And then there is Tesla.\nThis EV roadmap is intended to help investors explore different roads to investment by explaining the basic strategies for these EV companies. These roads can have different opportunities and risks, and the roadmap helps to frame these. Above all, valuation is an overriding risk that is highlighted throughout this article.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":353143799,"gmtCreate":1616473766411,"gmtModify":1704794552896,"author":{"id":"3576159031156193","authorId":"3576159031156193","name":"4ZOEYS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/485a6405c364ce85c22e81b2913d390f","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b7820dfed76481d8dc4de6ac5a7a136","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3576159031156193","authorIdStr":"3576159031156193"},"htmlText":"Too long to finish, so what is the best buynow?","listText":"Too long to finish, so what is the best buynow?","text":"Too long to finish, so what is the best buynow?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353143799","repostId":1196402560,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196402560","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616134696,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196402560?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-19 14:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"New Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196402560","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, an","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>It's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.</li>\n <li>Last October, I wrote a popular article providing a roadmap for investing in electric vehicles, but since then, so much has changed: new entrants, new strategies, fluctuating valuations, etc.</li>\n <li>So, I updated and greatly expanded the previous EV investment roadmap.</li>\n <li>This update includes a deeper look at valuations for 23 EV companies with revenue projections, when available.</li>\n <li>It also classifies these EV companies into their primary market categories and summarizes their different strategies.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb96acc615cba9c7842860658c019ab1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\">Photo by Sven Loeffler/iStock via Getty Images\nMy article&nbsp;Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap&nbsp;published five months ago, was popular, and some followers have requested an update. Many new EV companies entered the market, most of them through SPACs. Valuations fluctuated wildly, and there has been a great deal of publicity around these companies.\nThis new updated EV investment roadmap is greatly expanded. In addition to updating the strategies and progress of companies previously discussed, I expanded the number of companies covered. This article also groups EV companies into their primary markets, enabling better comparisons and evaluation of market opportunities. In addition, it includes a comparative valuation chart showing every company's market cap with a comparison to projected revenue, where possible. This takes advantage (good or bad) of looking at the long-term revenue forecasts provided in SPAC mergers that public companies can't make.\nIn addition to the EV manufacturers discussed here, there are also EV investment opportunities in charging station companies, battery manufacturers, and battery materials companies. These were covered in the original roadmap and may also be updated in a later article.\nApproximately 2 million EVs were sold in 2019, and although the number declined along with all auto sales in 2020, it is forecasted to increase in 2021 and reach 8-10 million by 2025. Some forecast that EV sales will be greater than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2030, or even earlier. The automobile market appears to be moving toward a historical transformation, and exceptional investment gains can be made by anticipating new emerging industries and investing in the eventual winners of those new industries. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)are obvious examples. Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to create a new emerging industry.\nThere are also significant risks. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to be released in the next three years, which will drive rapid growth in EV sales. However, the expected sales from these new models, as well as the increasing expectations from Tesla, most likely exceed the total projected market. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the companies covered here won't exist five years from now. It reminds me of the internet bubble of the late 1990s when scores of internet-based companies went public with little or no revenue. Almost all of these failed within three years -- however, a couple, including Amazon, went on to enormous success.\nEVs provide a major new investment opportunity with high risks. To succeed, you need to have a clear EV investment roadmap.\nSo, how can you invest in this new emerging market? The EV landscape is complex and investment opportunities are varied. While Tesla is the unquestioned leader in EVs, some consider it overvalued and unlikely to show exceptional returns to new investors. The current U.S. legacy automakers are committed to introducing many new EVs in the next few years, and they have some entrenched advantages with volume manufacturing capabilities, a dealer infrastructure, and loyal customers. There are exciting new EV start-ups in the U.S. that have come public this year, mostly through Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), and there are several interesting publicly traded Chinese EV manufacturers.\nThis new roadmap for EV investment classifies companies into three primary markets segments:\n<ul>\n <li>TheConsumer Retailsegment includes EVs sold to consumers individually, such as SUVs, pickup trucks, sedans, etc.</li>\n <li>TheCommercial Deliverysegment includes local delivery EV vans and trucks sold to fleets.</li>\n <li>TheMedium- and Long-Haul Truckingsegment includes heavier Class 4 - Class 8 trucks, as well as special industrial vehicles.</li>\n</ul>\nIn addition, it categorizesLegacy ManufacturersandChinese EV Companies. This enables investors to evaluate investment opportunities by considering unique opportunities within each market segment.\nThere is an enormous amount of investment optimism for EVs, and retail investors have been aggressively buying into EV stocks with seemingly no regard for valuation. Then there is the additional challenge of valuing companies with no revenue, especially those coming public through SPACs. So, valuation is an important investment consideration.\nSo let's start by looking at an overview of comparative EV valuations.\nEV Investment Valuation Overview\nThe following chart summarizes valuations for 23 EV companies, including several legacy companies. For SPACs, market cap estimates are computed using the pro forma number of shares at closing, otherwise using the valuation of the SPAC prior to closing drastically underestimates the valuation, which may be misleading to novice investors. Price/Sales ratios (market cap divided by revenue) are used to compare valuations. As a benchmark, current P/S ratios vary. For example, auto and truck companies have a ratio of 2.7X. Software companies have the highest ratios of over 10X.\nIn the chart, companies that currently have revenue show current P/S ratios. Where projections are available, projected P/S ratios are computed. A note of caution, however. Many of the EV companies came public through SPACs and published their projections (which public companies cannot do), and many of these are likely to prove unrealistic.\nAll of the longer-term revenue projections come from the company (C) forecasts with a SPAC. Some of these may turn out to be accurate, not many are most likely unrealistic. Some, like Lucid, Faraday, and Arrival forecast hitting more than $10 billion in revenue in a few years, when it took Tesla more than 10. Things are different now and they might achieve these, but they could also find that it will take longer to complete development, ramp up production, and create enough customer demand. Many companies may also find that there will be significant capital requirements to achieve this type of growth, and shareholders will be diluted.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc360dfa7de01516b7f68d5962cf3017\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"883\">\nTesla, the \"gold standard\" in EVs, has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, which many people believe is overvalued. Its market cap is approximately 20X 2020 revenue and 10X estimated 2022 revenue.\nTesla (TSLA)\nIn the U.S., and to a lesser extent in China, Tesla is the dominant EV provider. It has approximately 60% of the U.S. EV market and about 20% of the market in China. I own a Tesla and love it, but an investment in Tesla stock requires getting comfortable with its valuation. Tesla has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, although declining lately, which some consider still overvalued while others see upside potential.\nThe investment opportunity with Tesla is based on the expectation that it will continue to dominate the EV market, or at least maintain significant market share, despite much greater competition from the expected introduction of hundreds of new EV models in the next few years.\nThere is a great deal already published about Tesla, so I'll move on.\nLegacy Automakers\nSome people think that the legacy automakers will simply fade away. Historically, that was the case in some other industries, but it is not going to happen to most automakers. They are not standing still waiting to become obsolete. Most have aggressive strategies to replace ICE vehicles with EVs. GM plans to invest $27 billion and build and launch as many as 30 new EV models by 2025. Ford plans to invest $29 billion in EVs by 2025 and launch as many as 16 EVs in the next two years. Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY)has also committed billions to develop new EVs.\nThe competitive advantage that legacy automakers have in selling their new EVs is their dealer network. Will new EV customers prefer to continue going to their regular auto dealer to buy their new EV?\nAlmost all legacy automakers worldwide are developing and launching EVs including Volkswagen, Peugeot, Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi, Hyundai/Kia. Let's look a little more closely at GM and Ford as the leaders in the U.S.\nGeneral Motors (GM)\nGM has committed to introducing 20 new electric vehicles by 2023, including EVs across Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC, and Buick. It recently announced that it has already sold out the first-year production of its Hummer electric pickup. By mid-decade, it expects to sell a million EVs per year in its two largest markets: North America and China. As a reference point, Tesla reported deliveries of 367,500 vehicles globally in 2019.\nGM has a solid platform strategy for its EVs. It plans on building its EVs using five interchangeable drive units and three different motors from its Ultium Drive System platform. Ultium energy options range from 50 to 200 kWh, which could enable an estimated range of up to 400 miles. Most of its EVs will have 400-volt battery packs and up to 200 kW fast-charging capability while the truck platform will have 800-volt battery packs and 350 kW fast-charging capabilities.\nThe key building blocks of the Ultium battery system are large-scale, high-energy cells. Engineered in partnership with LG Energy Solutions, they use both advanced chemistry and a smart cell design that's optimized for a broad portfolio of EVs. GM engineers and scientists are actively researching and testing new elements in battery chemistry to lower costs and improve charge times. Ultium can contain either vertically- or horizontally-stacked cells to integrate into vehicle design: vertically for trucks, SUVs, and crossovers, or horizontally for cars and performance vehicles. As new chemistry is developed and becomes available, the battery management system could digitally update the modules.\nGM also has other EV opportunities with its BrightDrop commercial EV service and its Cruise subsidiary. BrightDrop will not just sell delivery EVs, it will provide an entire service platform for commercial delivery customers. Its set of electric delivery vehicles starts with the EV600 and includes the BrightDrop EP1, a pod-like electric pallet. SeeGeneral Motors' Aggressive EV/AV Strategies May Payoff Big.\nWith its highest stock price of $61.65, GM's current market cap is approximately $89 billion, increasing primarily because of its progress with EVs. This approximately 3X valuation in 2018, but still only 13% of Tesla.\nFord (F)\nFord is also investing heavily in EVs. It just introduced the Mustang Mach-E, a battery-powered crossover with sports car styling, and plans to introduce an all-electric version of its best-selling F-150 pickup later this year. Also, planned is an electric edition of the full-size Transit van, which has been popular in the commercial delivery market. Ford has confirmed plans to build a luxury Lincoln crossover on a battery-powered platform provided by Rivian. The automaker also plans to introduce two new midsize electric crossovers, one each for the Ford and Lincoln brands by 2023.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd8523e15bccc57790940d4218f7b94e\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"1080\">Mustang Mach-E. Source: Ford\nFord's market cap is approximately $51 billion, twice its previous market cap, and also increasing.\nConsumer Retail EV Companies\nThe consumer retail market has some unique characteristics for new EV companies. Sales are made individually, not in fleets. This diversifies the risk upon launch because only a sufficient number of customers need to be attracted to the new EV. A wave of popularity can provide terrific momentum.\nHowever, the lack of a dealer network can be an impediment. Selling EVs directly to consumers instead of through dealers is prohibited in most states. By law, auto manufacturers can't compete with franchised dealers. These are laws that go back many decades to protect dealers. This can be a major impediment for new companies without established independent dealer franchises. So, new AV companies. like Tesla, need to sell their vehicles online. Tesla has successfully done this, but it took a lot of work and time. Lack of a dealer network also creates impediments in service.\nIn addition, over the next 4-5 years, autonomous capabilities will be increasingly important to luxury vehicles. This may prove to be a challenge to start-up EV companies because they can't afford to develop this technology.\nLet's look closer at the alternative consumer retail EV investments.\nLucid Motors (CCIV)\nLucid was founded in 2007 under the name Atieva and originally focused on building electric vehicle batteries and powertrains for other vehicle manufacturers. The company rebranded itself as Lucid Motors in October 2016 and shifted its strategy to develop an all-electric, high-performance, luxury vehicle. Shortly after that, it encountered financial difficulties and struggled to get short-term funding. In 2018 it raised more than $1 billion in investment, primarily from Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund, and gave up a majority of the company.\nLucid Motors reached an agreement to become a publicly-traded company through a merger with the SPAC Churchill Capital IV Corp., in one of the largest deals SPAC EV deals. The combined company, in which Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund will continue to be the largest shareholder, had a transaction equity value of $11.75 billion (for $10/share). At the same time, it closed a PIPE investment priced at $15 a share, giving it an implied pro forma equity value of $24 billion. Rumors about this deal circulated before the transaction was formally announced, making it one of the most anticipated SPAC deals. The hype and speculation drove up the stock price of Churchill Capital IV Corp. from its opening price of $10 a share to almost $60. I believe that some of this may have been driven by novice SPAC investors who didn't realize that the valuation of CCIV didn't include the eventual valuation of Lucid. The share price dropped more than 30% after the details of the deal were announced. It's also likely that Lucid renegotiated the terms of the merger based on the price jump.\nThe company's first product is the Lucid Air, a well-equipped luxury electric vehicle that features 406 miles of projected range and 480 horsepower with a starting price of $77,400, or $69,900 after the U.S. Federal Tax Credit of $7,500. This new Lucid Air model is positioned as a high-performance, ultra-efficient luxury EV sedan in a line of future vehicles that are expected to include Lucid Air Touring, Grand Touring, and Dream Edition versions.\nThe company plans to begin production and deliveries of the Lucid Air in North America in the second half of 2021. Previously the company aimed to begin deliveries earlier in 2021. It intends to sell the car in Europe in 2022, followed by China in 2023. Lucid vehicles will be produced at its new factory in Casa Grande, Arizona. The company plans to expand the factory in phases in the coming years to have the capacity to produce 365,000 units per year at scale. The initial phase of the $700 million factory construction was completed late last year and will have the capacity to produce 30,000 vehicles a year.\nLucid also apparently has a commitment to build an assembly plant in Saudi Arabia, which was rumored to be a condition of the $1 billion investment from the Saudi public fund. The Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund also provided $600 million in bridge financing and invested in the SPAC deal as well. So, while this assembly plant may be expensive and may not be critical, it will most likely need to happen.\nLucid has ambitious plans to achieve $14 billion in revenue in 2025, and its current stock price at $29.17, which gives it a market cap of more than $46 billion, may already reflect those ambitions. Its market cap is roughly the same as Ford.\nFisker (FSR)\nFisker, which had its origins with Fisker Automotive, is an interesting story that ended in bankruptcy. Henrik Fisker originally co-founded Fisker Automotive in 2007. He was responsible for designing many premium cars such as the Aston Martin. Subsequently, Fisker Automotive had to deal with a Tesla lawsuit against Fisker Automotive alleging it stole Tesla's technology, a controversial $528.7 million conditional loan from the Department of Energy, a recall of its battery produced by A123, and the loss of several hundred vehicles in hurricane Sandy. Henrik Fisker resigned in March 2013 because of disagreements over business strategy and in November 2013, Fisker filed its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case.\nHowever, Henrik Fisker retained the Fisker brand and trademarks, and in 2016 he started another electric vehicle company named Fisker Inc. with the Fisker brand and trademarks. In 2019, Fisker shifted from developing a sports car with a solid-state battery to the Ocean SUV featuring a lithium-ion battery, which it later abandoned for a solid-state battery.\nFisker is positioning itself in a unique segment for those who want the most environmentally friendly EV. While this may be an early growth segment for EVs, it's difficult to estimate its eventual competitive advantage and the size of this environmentally-friendly market segment.\nThe Ocean is a crossover made of recycled metal and plastic with an expected base price of $37,499, and an expected lease of less than $400 a month. Fisker's plan is essentially a lease-only business model that lets customers keep a vehicle for years or return it at any time. It aims to source motors, batteries, and other components from technical partnerships with automakers and will outsource production from existing auto plants. Fisker is currently taking reservations at $250 for the Ocean. It also announced an agreement with Foxconn to jointly develop a vehicle pioneering a new market segment to be sold globally under the Fisker brand commencing in Q4 2023. at the end of 2022. Production will start at Magna Steyr's manufacturing facilities in Europe. At the end of February 2021, it had 12,467 cancellable reservations.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/924a617c90fc3276d7bdab8c64ebfdcf\" tg-width=\"744\" tg-height=\"389\">Fisker Ocean. Source: Fisker\nFisker went public using a SPAC (Spartan Energy). The original combination with SPAQ in October 2020 was valued at $2.9 billion with a cash investment of approximately $1 billion. The stock currently trades at approximately $21 per share, after reaching a high of $28.50, from the original price of $10, which is a market cap of $4.6 billion. Fisker projects $3.3 billion in revenue in 2023. It had almost $1 billion in cash at the end of 2020 and expected to use almost half of this in 2021: $250 million on operating expenses and $250 million in capital investments. If the Ocean is delayed into 2023, Fisker risks missing its revenue objective and will potentially need additional cash to complete development and launch.\nFaraday Future (PSAC)\nFaraday Future was originally established in May 2014 by Chinese businessman Jia Yueting. It is headquartered in Los Angeles and has offices in Silicon Valley, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu. Faraday Future also had a turbulent history. In 2016, it struggled financially, and in 2017 some key executives departed over a dispute about financial issues. They later founded Canoo.\nIn December 2018 the company announced layoffs due to a cash crunch and financial troubles. The company's founder Jia Yueting filed for personal bankruptcy in the United States' federal court in Delaware on October 14, 2019. Following Jia's personal bankruptcy, he decided to step down from his role as CEO of Faraday Future in order to assume a new position as the Chief Product and User Officer. He was replaced as CEO by Carsten Breitfeld, the former CEO at rival electric vehicle startup Byton.\nSomehow, Faraday was able to raise $2.3 billion in private funding over 5 rounds from a variety of investors. In early 2018, it received $1.5 billion in funding from an undisclosed investor from Hong Kong.\nFaraday's flagship product offering will be the FF 91, featuring 1,050 HP, 0-60 mph in less than 2.4 seconds, zero gravity seats with the largest 60-degree reclining angles, and a user experience designed to create a mobile, connected, and luxurious living space. The FF 91 is targeted to launch in 2022.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e38bfb3211c72bb73bc26f2ebe296fe\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"854\">FF 91. Source: Faraday Future\nIts strategic partners include one of China's top three OEMs and a critical Chinese city, which the company believes will help establish its presence in the Chinese vehicle market.\nFaraday Future plans several cars based on its Variable Platform Architecture. FF 91 is the first production vehicle and flagship model. Pricing will range between $120,000 and upwards of $200,000, which places it against formidable opponents. Faraday Future is already looking forward to expanding its range with a pair of smaller models named FF 81 and FF 71. The FF 81 is planned to be priced at $75,000 to 95,000 with a 2023 release. The FF 71 is planned to be priced at $45,000 to $65,000 with a planned release of 2024.\nThe Primary Manufacturing Facility for FF 91 is in Hanford, CA with contract manufacturing for future models in Gunsan, South Korea.\nFaraday Future is planning high-Level automation with a Level-3 capable system using a redundant safety architecture based on NVIDIA Xavier System-on-a-chip. It will be capable of highway auto-drive and hardware ready for advanced auto-drive. It is targeting full autonomous valet parking &amp; summon in any parking lot or structure. Eventually, it expects full auto-drive, including full 360˚ sensor coverage for advanced auto-drive &amp; auto-park features.\nIn January 2021, Faraday Future announced that the company would go public through a reverse merger with the special purpose acquisition company Property Solutions Acquisition Corp. (PSAC). The combined company will be valued at $3.4 billion. Faraday Future is expected to set up contract manufacturing operations in China through their partnership with Geely. Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn is also expected to serve as an additional strategic partner.\nFaraday Future projects $10.5 billion in revenue in 2024 and $21.5 billion in 2025. Revenue is expected to start in 2022 with the delivery of 2,400 vehicles for $504 million. Most likely these projections could prove to be optimistic. At a current stock price of approximately $12.80, it has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nLordstown Motors (RIDE)\nLordstown Motors based in Lordstown, Ohio, was originally founded in 2018 by Steve Burns, the former CEO of Workhorse Group. The company licensed technology from Workhorse in return for royalties and a 10% ownership. Lordstown is named after the famous GM Lordstown manufacturing plant, which it acquired in November 2019 in an unusual transaction. GM announced that it was closing the plant and was under a great deal of pressure for that decision. So, GM \"sold\" the plant to a company that was renamed Lordstown for an estimated $20 million that it loaned to the acquiring company. Subsequently, the sale was redefined to be part of a $75 million investment by GM, of which $50 million was an in-kind exchange for the plant.\nLordstown went public through the SPAC DiamondPeak Holdings Corp. in 2020. It currently has more than 400 employees.\nIts first product is the Lordstown Endurance, a full-sized EV pickup truck. Lordstown is positioning Endurance for the pickup fleet market segment. The expected price is $52,000+, and it claimed to have more than 100,000 pre-orders by January 2021. However, a recent research article published by a short seller claimed \"Our research has revealed that Lordstown's order book consists of fake or entirely non-binding orders, from customers that generally do not even have fleets of vehicles.\" Lordstown is disputing that article.\nIt believes the fleet pickup market segment is underserved with no current EV-focused competition. It estimates that the full-sized pick-up truck fleet market is 1.2 million vehicles per year in the U.S., but it's more fragmented than other truck fleets. Pickup \"fleets\" tend to be much smaller and local, so there may not be much of a market distinction for a small company buying several EV pickups from a traditional auto dealer. About half of the total U.S. pickup market is classified as fleet sales, meaning more than one.\nEven though Lordstown is targeting the commercial fleet market, it is a similar product to the Ford EV F-150. So I classify it in the consumer EV category. It is a class 2 vehicle. Lordstown also may enter the SUV market in the longer-term.\nThe Endurance will compete against future models from Rivian and Tesla, as well as Ford and GM in ICE pick-ups and their upcoming EV pick-ups. Ford plans on selling its EV F-150 in mid-2022. Initial production of the Endurance is expected in the second half of 2021, so it may have a short market advantage. Nevertheless, it forecasts selling 65,000 vehicles in 2023 and 107,000 in 2024. These estimates could be a large percentage of the EV pick-up market in those years.\nAt the SPAC merger, the implied valuation for Lordstown was $1.6 billion, including a $500 million PIPE and the $75 million by GM. Lordstown's financial projections appear to be aggressive. It projects to start shipping the Endurance in late 2021 with projected revenue in 2022 of $1.7 billion, increasing to $5.8 billion in 2024. Its stock price at approximately $13.60 values the company at a market cap of approximately $2.2 billion. The value of the company depends on the likelihood of achieving its projections.\nA fleet sales strategy makes sense for Lordstown since it would be too expensive to build a retail sales and service capability. However, it's not clear that this will become a distinct competitive advantage. Some small fleets may still prefer to buy their EV pickups from established local dealers with service capabilities.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nCanoo started as Evelozcity in 2017 and rebranded as Canoo in the spring of 2019. Canoo is a Los Angeles-based company that develops electric vehicles. It has over 350 employees. Canoo has designed a modular electric platform purpose-built to deliver maximum vehicle interior space, which is adaptable to support a wide range of vehicle applications for consumers and businesses. Canoo expects to launch its first consumer model in 2022, simply named the Canoo that will be available by subscription, followed shortly after by a multi-purpose delivery vehicle and a sports vehicle, each built off of the same underlying platform. Canoo went public using a SPAC (Hennessy Capital Acquisition) and now trades as GOEV.\nCanoo's all-electric skateboard-like platform is designed to support both consumer retail and commercial vehicle configurations. The EV leverages Canoo's flat skateboard architecture for a high level of usable interior space. Its commercial vehicle program, expected in 2023, addresses a projected $50B+ last-mile delivery market with an EV platform that maximizes cargo volume.\nHyundai Motor Group said it would jointly develop an electric vehicle platform with the company.\nCanoo's platform strategy is interesting. It could be used as an EV platform for custom fleets of delivery vehicles. It has no AV development, but it claims to be \"AV Ready\" which could be useful for AV companies wanting to build custom AV delivery fleets.\nIts all-electric multi-purpose delivery vehicle is expected to be priced starting at approximately $33,000. It is based on Canoo's proprietary electric platform and will be offered in two initial size variants, with others to follow. Limited availability will begin in 2022, with scaled production and launch planned for 2023. Customers can pre-order the multi-purpose delivery vehicle for a refundable deposit of $100 per vehicle\nIt plans to offer two multi-purpose delivery vehicles: the MPDV1 and the larger MPDV2. The first has a 200-foot cargo volume and a range of 130-200 miles. It offers more capacity than today's ICE delivery vehicles at an affordable price with urban mobility enabled by a space-efficient footprint. The vehicle is also designed to fit within many height-restricted areas like parking garages.\nThe MPDV2 has a cargo volume of 450 feet and a range of 90-190 miles. Its roof and step-in height enable individuals to easily walk-in the vehicle and accommodate a standing position while inside.\nThe original SPAC transaction provided approximately $600 million, with a pro forma equity value of approximately $2.4 billion. Like other SPAC mergers, its stock price has fluctuated. It currently trades at about $15.90 per share for a market cap of approximately $3.7 billion. Canoo projects $2.0 billion in revenue in 2025 from about $500 million in engineering services, $1.2 billion from its consumer vehicle subscriptions, and the remainder from its commercial program. Canoo expects revenue of more than $300 million in 2022 after the launch of its lifestyle consumer vehicle.\nSince its first products are aimed at consumers, as is most of its forecasted 2025 revenue, I categorize it primarily as a consumer EV company. However, I think the design of that Canoo vehicle may not attract enough customers. More importantly, its subscription service way of selling its EV to consumers is risky. I think it has more potential in the commercial market, however, a dual strategy (consumer and commercial) is challenging. I like its skateboard platform design and that could prove to be a competitive advantage.\nRivian\nAlthough not yet public, I include Rivian because it has plans for an IPO as soon as Sept 2021, although it could slip into 2022. There are rumors that the company is targeting a market valuation of approximately $50B. Rivian has already raised more than $8 billion to date from Amazon, Ford, T. Rowe Price, and others.\nRivian has developed and vertically integrated a connected electric platform that can be flexibly applied to a range of applications, including the company's adventure products, as well as B2B products such as the Amazon last-mile delivery vans. The company's initial products, the R1T and R1S, provide a combination of performance, off-road capability, and utility. These vehicles will be produced at Rivian's manufacturing plant in Normal, Ill., with customer deliveries expected to begin in summer 2021. The launch of the R1S three-row electric SUV will follow in August.\nAdditional lower-priced models are being planned. The expected R2 series would include at least two smaller electric vehicles to coincide with the smaller platform, then another platform for R3.\nCommercial Delivery EV Companies\nEV truck companies differ based on the type of truck they are developing. The technology and markets are very different, so I separate them into two categories. The first category includes commercial delivery vehicles.\nCompanies making EV delivery vehicles have some major advantages that could make them good investments. First, delivery vehicles typically travel less than 250 miles during a day, so they can be conveniently recharged overnight. Secondly, they are typically sold in large quantities to fleets. This means that building a retail sales infrastructure is not necessary. It only requires a small salesforce. In addition, maintenance can also be provided at the fleet's operational center, so not as many service centers are required.\nThe disadvantage in this market is that there are a relatively small number of customers that buy in large volumes, so if the EV manufacturer can't get enough large customers, they may not be able to stay in business. GM estimates the combined market opportunity for parcel and food delivery, as well as reverse logistics, in the U.S. will be more than $850 billion by 2025.\nThe commercial market is expected to be a major growth area for EVs. Other start-up automakers like Rivian as well as legacy automakers such as Ford, Daimler, and GM have announced plans to enter the segment. GM recently announced its BrightDrop ecosystem for commercial customers that includes an all-new electric delivery van, the EV600 available by the end of 2021, as well as an integrated autonomous pallet and related services.\nThis group of EV companies focuses primarily on commercial delivery. In general, these are in the light-duty trucks category, although it also includes some medium-duty trucks. This generally includes the following commercial truck classes:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 1: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 0-6,000 pounds or 0-2,722 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 2: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 6,001-10,000 pounds or 2,722-4,536 kilograms.1</li>\n <li>Class 3: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 10,001-14,000 pounds or 4,536-6,350 kilograms.</li>\n</ul>\nIt can also include somewhat larger medium-duty EV delivery trucks:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.</li>\n</ul>\nEV delivery trucks also have an advantage over ICE vehicles because they can have a greater delivery storage space. Smaller buses and transit vehicles are also included in this category.\nLast-mile package delivery is not an immediate-term autonomous vehicle opportunity because it requires a delivery person to be on the truck anyway.\nWorkhorse Group (WKHS)\nWorkhorse has been a public company for ten years. Originally AMP Electric Vehicles, it was established in 2007 as a developmental-stage vehicle electrification company, focusing on conversions. AMP Electric Vehicles went public in 2010 trading on the OTC market under the AMPD symbol. When the economic benefits of conversion became less certain, it pivoted away from passenger vehicles and began to focus on electrifying commercial vehicles. AMP acquired the Workhorse brand and the Workhorse custom chassis assembly plant in Union City. In March of 2013, AMP formally changed its name to Workhorse Group Incorporated.\nThe Company designs and builds a last-mile delivery electric vehicle. The C-Series EVs cover the larger size of commercial delivery vehicles in Classes 3-5. As part of its solutions, it also develops cloud-based, real-time telematics performance monitoring systems. It sells its vehicles to fleet customers directly and through its primary distributor, Ryder Systems. It is currently focused on bringing the C-Series electric delivery truck to market and fulfilling the existing backlog of orders.\nThe C-Series looks like a viable EV replacement for the 350,000 last-mile delivery vehicles sold in the U.S. annually. It recently announced an increased driving range from 100 miles to 160, which should open more market opportunities. It has a viable short-term go-to-market strategy selling fleets to delivery companies. It currently has test vehicles with UPS, DHL, FedEx, Amazon, and Walmart.\nWorkhorse recently lost out on the United States Postal Services Next Generation Delivery Vehicle project, however, it is in the process of challenging this decision. Additionally, its investment in Lordstown also provides an indirect investment opportunity. On November 7, 2019, the Company entered a transaction with Lordstown Motors to grant LMC a perpetual and worldwide license to certain intellectual property relating to its W-15 electric pickup truck platform and related technology in exchange for royalties, equity interest (approximately 10%) in LMC, and other considerations. This was a $320 million asset for Workhorse at the end of 2020.\nWorkhorse received a significant increase in orders in Q4/2020 but built just seven trucks in the fourth quarter due to production systems and supply chain issues. Workhorse plans to continue to take it slow, striving to build three of its composite-body battery-electric trucks a day in March with a plan to reach 10 trucks a day by the end of June. This makes its original 2021 goal of producing 1,800 trucks unlikely. It partnered with Hitachi and Hitachi Capital America (\"HCA\") to improve the Company's manufacturing, operational, and supply chain capabilities as well as to develop a national dealer network to support Workhorse's sales with vehicle financing options for both dealers and customers.\nWorkhorse has a market cap of approximately $1.9 billion. While Workhorse had ongoing revenue, unlike many other new EV companies, its revenue is still insignificant. It had a revenue of $1.4 million in 2020 and $377,000 in 2019. It has a backlog of over 8,000 vehicles but doesn't expect to be able to build many of those in 2021. It raised $270 million in capital over several financings, providing the Company with additional capital to build its backlog. It had cash of $215 million as of March 1, 2021. Because Workhorse is a traditional public company, it hasn't made long-term financial projections like SPAC-based companies.\nElectric Last Mile (FIII)\nElectric Last Mile, based in Troy Michigan, was founded by Jason Luo, former CEO of Ford China before it was acquired by China's Ningbo Joyson Electronic for $920 million in 2016, including James Taylor, former CEO of GM's Hummer brand and former CEO of electric car maker Karma Automotive. Taylor serves as the company's top executive with Luo as the company's chairman.\nThe company plans to launch a small electric delivery van (class 1-2), called the UD-1, in the third quarter of 2021, and then introduce an Urban Utility vehicle (Class 2-3) in 2022. These are expected to compete with Workhorse, Rivian, Canoo, as well as the Ford eTransit and the GMC BV1, none of which is expected to be a Class 1 vehicle.\nThe company says it has 30,000 preorders for its van, representing more than $1 billion in sales. Electric Last Miles vehicles will be based on Sokon's commercial van made in China through a joint venture with Dongfeng Automobile Co Ltd. in order to accelerate development time.\nElectric Last Mile (ELM) is expected to manufacture the vans in a former General Motors Co. Hummer plant in Mishawaka, Ind., that the company is acquiring from China's Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co. Ltd. The plant has the capacity to produce 100,000 vehicles annually with plans to build approximately 4,000 UD-1 vans by the end of 2021. The UD-1 has a starting price of $32,500 and a range of 150 miles. The battery for the vehicle is expected to be supplied by the Chinese battery company CATL.\nELM believes that it has a competitive advantage because its first vehicle, the ELM Urban Delivery, is scheduled to be available in 2021. It is based on a proven, existing platform developed and sold by Sokon Group in the Asian market, where there are 30,000 of these electric delivery vehicles driving 1.5 million miles every day. At the close of the business combination, ELM will be an independent, U.S. company producing electric vehicles in the U.S. with Sokon Group providing access to its know-how, parts supply, and field and service data.\nELM expects that the Urban Delivery vehicle will be the first electric delivery vehicle coming to market in the class 1 category (GVW of 6,000 lbs or less) in the U.S. It will also have 35% more carrying volume compared to similar ICE delivery vehicles, a critical part of the value proposition. It also anticipates that its price and greater carrying volume will allow it to take market share from the class 2 category of vehicles as well.\nIts crossover product portfolio strategy targets commercial delivery vehicles spanning from class 1 to class 3, which represents over 80% of the last mile market.\nELM anticipates $122 million in revenue in 2021, rapidly increasing to $3 billion in 2025. The price of FIII stock increased immediately following its announcement with Electric Last Mile, rising more than 40% to $14.50, but now it has dropped closer to the original deal price to $10.25 for a market cap of approximately $1.5 billion.\nGreenPower Motor Company (GP)\nGreenPower Motor Company Inc. is a Canadian battery-electric bus manufacturer with multiple models of high- and low-floor vehicles, including transit buses, school buses, and shuttles. GreenPower offers commercial vehicles for delivery, public transit, schools, vanpooling, micro-transit, shuttles, and is developing a capability of autonomous operation. It went public on August 28, 2020.\nIn 2014 GreenPower launched its first purpose-built, battery-electric bus, the EV350, 40-foot transit bus. GreenPower received its first order in 2017 for ten EV350s from the City of Porterville, California.\nGreenPower's electric buses are purpose-built and designed to be all-electric, allowing it to put the battery and propulsion system in optimized locations that provide weight and structural advantages. Its primary EV is the EV Star with more than 120 vehicles delivered. It comes in several variations:\n<ul>\n <li>EV Star - Up to 19 passengers</li>\n <li>EV Star Plus - Up to 24 passengers</li>\n <li>EV Star ADA - Passenger and curbside lift for ADA</li>\n <li>EV Star Cargo - 5,000 pounds of load</li>\n <li>EV Star Cargo Plus - 570 cubic feet of cargo space.</li>\n</ul>\nIts EV school bus seats up to 90 students and has a range of up to 150 miles.\nGreenPower had revenue of $13.5 million in 2020 It has about $21 million in cash. It's an interesting alternative since it is already shipping EVs, has revenue, and also has a lower market cap of less than $1 billion. Since it did a traditional IPO, it hasn't published longer-term financial forecasts.\nArrival (CIIC)\nArrival was founded in 2015 in London to make a variety of commercial electric vehicles. It has approximately 1,200 employees across 11 cities in 8 countries. In November 2020, Arrival and the SPAC CIIG entered into a business combination agreement with an implied valuation of $5.39 billion.\nArrival plans on releasing four commercial EVs over the next few years.\n<ul>\n <li>Q4/2021: An electric bus for 8-125 passengers and a range of 240-400km</li>\n <li>Q3/2022: An electric delivery van with a payload of 975-2,000kg and a range of 150-340km</li>\n <li>2022: A larger electric van with a payload of 4,000 kg and a range of 190-400km</li>\n <li>2023: a small vehicle platform with a range of 100-300km.</li>\n</ul>\nThis mix provides a nice diversified portfolio of EVs. Arrival claims to have received orders from UPS for 10,000 vans. It plans a unique flexible manufacturing approach using micro-factories with each projected to manufacture 10,000 vans per year. All of its vehicles use a modular skateboard electric platform.\nArrival ambitiously projects $14.1 billion in revenue in 2024. Half of that revenue is expected from delivery vans, 22% from buses, and the rest from the large van and its small vehicle platform. With CIIC's stock price at $24.80 per share, Arrival's current market cap is relatively high at approximately $15.0 billion. Justifying its market cap depends on its ability to release, sell, and produce its four commercial EVs.\nProterra (ACTC)\nProterra is a commercial electric vehicle company with over a decade of production experience. The Company has designed an end-to-end, flexible technology platform that claims to deliver higher performance and a low total cost of ownership to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end customers.\nProterra, Inc., was originally founded in Golden, Colorado, by Dale Hill in 2004. Later the company wanted to take the lead in creating zero-emission, U.S.-based transit buses. In 2010 it moved its manufacturing plant from Golden, Colorado to Greenville, South Carolina. In 2015, Proterra was awarded a $3 million grant from the California Energy Commission to fund the design, development, and construction of the company's battery-electric transit bus manufacturing line in the City of Industry, California. It moved its headquarters from Greenville, South Carolina, to Burlingame, California, in October 2015. Proterra raised more than $600 million in funding.\nIt is going public through the SPAC ArcLight (ACTC) with a pro forma valuation of $1.6 billion. Upon completion of the transaction, Proterra expects to have up to $825 million in cash to fund growth initiatives, including R&amp;D and the expansion of its next-generation battery program.\nProterra has three complementary businesses:\n<ul>\n <li>Proterra Powered: Delivering battery systems and electrification solutions to commercial vehicle manufacturers</li>\n <li>Proterra Transit:Providing an electric transit bus OEMs</li>\n <li>Proterra Energy:Offering turnkey charging and energy management solutions.</li>\n</ul>\nThe company's battery systems have been proven in more than 16 million service miles driven by its fleet of transit vehicles and validated through partnerships with commercial vehicle OEMs. Proterra has produced and delivered more than 300 megawatt-hours of battery systems, more than 550 heavy-duty electric transit buses, and installed 54 megawatts of charging systems.\nProterra expected $193 million of revenue in 2020, with an estimated $750 million in existing orders and backlog. It projects $2.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with about 1/3 coming from its Transit business, and 2/3 From Powered &amp; Energy. At ACTC's current stock price of $17.85, Proterra has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nRivian\nRivian (see earlier description in consumer retail) will also compete in the commercial delivery market. It has been working with Amazon (a major investor) to build large electric delivery vans for Prime. Developed specifically for Amazon, a small fleet of Prime vans is on the road now, testing deliveries to customers and gathering feedback. In late fall, it could grow to a large fleet as Rivian ramps up the volume.\nThe EV range of 150 miles is tailored to Amazon's use cycle to optimize the size, weight, and cost of the commercial vehicle. Rivian has three sizes of batteries, but Amazon is starting with just one of them.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nSee the previous summary under consumer retail EV.\nMedium and Long-Haul Trucking EV Companies\nCompanies developing medium- and long-haul EV trucks face a more difficult challenge with battery range. These trucks haul much more weight than commercial delivery vehicles and because they are designed for long distances, they can't stop every 200-300 miles for recharging.\nFor this reason, many of these companies are using unique hybrid technologies for their trucks. The EV trucks in this category are primarily heavy-duty but also include some medium-duty trucks and specialty vehicles. A couple of the companies focus on retrofitting trucks to be electric.\nMedium-Duty Trucks\nThe medium-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 4, 5, and 6:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 6: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 19,501-26,000 pounds or 8,846-11,793 kilograms.1</li>\n</ul>\nHeavy-Duty Trucks\nThe heavy-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 7 and 8:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 7: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 26,001 to 33,000 pounds or 11,794-14,969 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 8: This class of trucks has a GVWR of greater than 33,001 pounds or 14,969 kilograms and includes all tractor-trailers.</li>\n</ul>\nThe Tesla Semi is a battery vehicle planned for a range of 300 or 500 miles and a speed of 60 MPH with 80,000 lbs of cargo. Tesla plans to start shipping the Semi later this year when it expects to have sufficient cell volume to meet its needs with the production of its 4680 battery pack.\nNikola(NASDAQ:NKLA)\nNikola has been a very controversial company. Founded in 2015, it originally had two different strategies. Its primary strategy is to lease fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) Class-8 heavy trucks and provide the refueling infrastructure to corporate customers. Its second strategy was to develop the Badger EV truck using GM technology.\nNikola originally merged with a SPAC to go public, at an enterprise value of approximately $3.3 billion. On June 6th, 2020, its market cap jumped to more than $30 billion, then later it dropped because of problems with its originally planned deal with GM.\nNikola originally expected a deal with General Motors that included the production of the Nikola Badger EV pickup truck. The proposed arrangement was that GM would take a $2 billion equity stake in Nikola and in return would engineer and produce the Badger. In November 2020, GM and Nikola scrapped the original arrangement. Now it appears that GM will supply Nikola with only its Hydrotec hydrogen fuel-cell technology to integrate into the EV manufacturer's commercial class 7 and class 8 zero-emission semi-trucks. So, the Badger is probably dead.\nNikola now sees semi-trucks as the company's \"core business\" and fuel cells as an increasingly important segment of the semi-truck market thanks to their efficiency in weight and consumption. It expects to begin testing by the end of 2021.\nIt has received pre-orders from Anheuser-Busch and a few other companies, but it doesn't expect deliveries until 2023. Hydrogen fueling stations are key to its strategy, both providing a source of revenue and necessary fueling infrastructure for the trucks to operate, but they also cost a lot. In its March 2020 investor deck, Nikola said a single station capable of fueling 210 trucks a day would cost $16.6 million. Its initial planned network of 700 stations would cost roughly $11.6 billion.\nNikola was also accused of misrepresentation, and its executive chairman and founder stepped down.\nAt the time of the SPAC merger, it projected an optimistic forecast of more than $3 billion in revenue by 2024, with a net income of $145 million. Most of that revenue was expected to come from its Badger truck, which is no longer in the plans. Yet its market cap is still almost $6 billion.\nHyliion (HYLN)\nHyliion, founded in 2015 in Austin, went public in October 2020 through the SPAC Tortoise Acquisition Corp. (SHLL). In March 2019, automotive parts manufacturer Dana Inc. made an equity investment into Hyliion, and together they are manufacturing and marketing Class 8 EVs to Dana's customers, including Volvo, Navistar, and Peterbilt.\nHyliion's strategy is unique, and a very different strategy from Nikola. Essentially it generates electricity onboard the truck using compressed natural gas (CNG). This should be a benefit for longer-range trucking. Hyliion's Hypertruck concept involves an all-electric drivetrain utilizing Dana's electric motor, inverter, and axle technologies. The truck's batteries are fueled by onboard tanks of CNG. With some 700 CNG stations already operating nationwide, it believes that there no need to build out expensive superchargers or hydrogen infrastructure.\nKuwait-based logistics company, Agility, has already placed an order for 1,000 Hypertrucks with initial deliveries targeted in 2022. Combined with a fully electric drivetrain and a natural gas-powered onboard generator to recharge the battery, the Hypertruck ERX will provide more than 1,000 miles of range.\nHyliion will eventually compete with Nikola (FCEV) and the Tesla battery-based Semi, but it plans to have a longer range and lower operating costs. Its HyperTruck ERX is expected to be available in 2021. It also has a hybrid-electric truck.\nThe combination with SHLL had an estimated market cap of about $1.5 billion, with approximately $530 million going to the company, including a $325 million fully committed PIPE. At approximately $13.50 per share, its current market cap is approximately $2.2 billion, significantly down from its peak. Hyliion projects $2 billion in revenue in 2024, which it claims is only about 2% of the addressable market.\nXL Fleet (XL)\nXL Fleet is a 10-year old company that went public through the SPAC Pivotal. XL is different because it provides fleet electrification modifications for ICE trucks across a wide range of vehicle classes (class 2-5) and types. It has over 200 of the largest commercial and municipal fleets as customers, with more than 3,200 XL systems deployed and over 130 million miles driven by customers to date. XL's customer base includes FedEx, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Verizon, the City of Boston, Seattle Fire Department, Yale University, and Harvard University.\nXL's business model is essentially retrofitting existing trucks to be hybrids and then later expanding into fully electric truck conversions. It claims to be creating a fully integrated platform for this. It remains to be seen if the retrofitting business will continue to grow or will it diminish when more trucks are designed and manufactured with EV capabilities.\nUnlike some other EV companies that have no revenue yet because they are still developing products, XL is more of a small company doing low-volume retrofits. It had $7.2 million in revenue in 2019, $21 million in 2020, and estimates $76 million in 2021, but it forecasts $1.3 billion in revenue in 2024 in its investor presentation. It plans to do this by expanding its product line from hybrid to plug-in hybrid to fully electric across a broader range of trucks. It claims to have a $220 million sales pipeline for the next 12 months.\nShort-seller, Muddy Waters, claimed after talking to former XL Fleet employees, that it believed the company significantly exaggerated its order backlog, that the return on investment for the company's products was likely negative, and that it would not be able to compete with big car makers on electrification. The company thoroughly refuted these claims.\nThe original enterprise valuation was approximately $1.4 billion at a $10 share price for the merger. Its price jumped by about 35% but has since gone back down to $12.40 for a market cap of about $1.8 billion. Although XL Fleet has revenue and other EV companies don't, this may not be an advantage. It appears to be a small company for many years that has gone public at a high valuation with grand plans. The risks are in its ability to make a jump from $76 million in 2021 to $1.3 billion in 2024, as well as the question about retrofitting being replaced by new EV trucks by then.\nXos (NGAC)\nXos Trucks specializes in the field of manufacturing fully electric commercial vehicles. It features a software platform that is designed to accommodate an extensive variety of medium-duty bodies, wheelbase, and range requirements up to 200 miles. It was founded in 2016 and headquartered in North Hollywood, California. It received $20 million of investment in 2020 and now is going public through a merger with the SPAC ExtGen Acquisition Corporation (NGAC) at an estimated proforma value of $1.965 billion.\nIts focus is on medium- and heavy-duty last mile and return-to-base segments (class 5/6, class 6/7, and class 7/8) commercial fleets and specialty vehicles. Some vehicles are currently in production and in regular on-road operations with key fleet customers, and it claimed 6,000 unit orders in backlog.\nIts MD-platform is for classes 5-6 for pickup and delivery. Its HD X-Platform is an adaptable chassis for highway, vocational, and severe work conditions. Its market is for customers with highly predictable routes that allow for batteries designed for a more limited range. A significantly larger frame and smaller battery pack allow for reduced density.\nXos has a bundled all-in-one offering that allows fleets to access all the tools and services they need to go electric with a single point of contact at a fixed monthly expense.\nXos had $3 million in revenue in 2020 and estimates $14 million in 2021. However, it forecasts $5.2 billion in revenue in 2025. At the current stock price of $10.30, its market cap is approximately $2 billion, about the same as its original SPAC transaction.\nLion Electric (NGA)\nLion Electric is a Canadian company founded by Marc Bédard in 2008. Its focus is to be a leader in designing, developing, and manufacturing purpose-built urban electric vehicles; vehicles that are specifically designed as delivery trucks, refuse trucks, bucket trucks, moving trucks, school buses, and shuttle buses. It has over 300 all-electric vehicles on the road today.\nIn November 2020, it announced that it was going public through the SPAC NGA. The transaction had an estimated pro forma enterprise value of $1.5 billion.\nIt plans on seven new truck models and one new school bus, for a total of 15 all-electric vehicles, representing a full line-up from class 5 to class 8 electric trucks and a full line-up of electric school buses. Its vehicles are produced at its existing manufacturing plant, which has the capacity for the production of up to 2,500 vehicles per year. It intends to open a new plant in the U.S. capable of delivering over 20,000 Lion trucks and buses per year by 2022.\nIts all-electric class 6 and class 8 commercial urban trucks combine power, comfort, and modern technology. Custom-built chassis and cabin designed specifically for an all-electric heavy-duty vehicle. The LionC is an all-electric Type C school bus manufactured in North America. The body and chassis were specifically designed to deliver optimal performance. The LionM is an all-electric midi/minibus that meets paratransit and public transportation requirements. Created and designed specifically for the paratransit market, the is spacious and offers unique features that provide enhanced security and accessibility to the end-users.\nLion Electric had $29 million in revenue in 2020 and expects $204 million in 2021. It forecasts revenue to jump to $3.6 billion a few years later in 2024. Its current market cap is approximately $3.6 billion based on its current stock price of $18.33.\nLightning eMotors (GIK)\nLightning eMotors, formerly Lightning Systems, was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Loveland, Colorado. It provides fleet electrification for familiar commercial vehicle platforms by retrofitting them with its electric powertrains. Lightning eMotors produces electric fleet medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including delivery trucks, shuttle buses, passenger vans, ambulances, bucket trucks, chassis-cab models, and city transit buses. It focuses on urban commercial zero-emission vehicles with a full range of class 3 through class 7 battery-electric and fuel-cell electric vehicles.\nLighting eMotors helps commercial fleets achieve their sustainability goals by offering zero-emission battery-electric vans, trucks, and buses based on familiar, proven vehicles from manufacturers such as Ford and GM. It works with customers, to help them identify their unique commercial electric vehicle, charging, and grant support needs.\nThe Lightning products include integrated all-electric powertrains for the Ford Transit 350HD passenger and cargo vans, Ford E-450 shuttle bus and cutaway models, Ford F-59 step/food van, Ford F-550 cargo trucks and buses, Chevrolet 6500XD Low Cab Forward model, and 30-foot, 35-foot, and 40-foot transit buses.\nLightning has 120 vehicles on the road, and 1,500 vehicles already on order from customers. In addition to making vehicles and powertrains, Lightning also provides a full suite of charging solutions for customers.\nThe deal with GIK has an enterprise value of $650 million, although there is also an Earnout of 20.0% of total pro forma shares outstanding to Lightning eMotors shareholders if the stock crosses certain price thresholds.\nAt the current price, of $11.73, GIK has a market cap of approximately $1 billion, a little more than the original transaction valuation. Similar to XL Fleet, Lightning has the risk that retrofitting may only be an interim business opportunity until more EV trucks are produced.\nPublic Chinese EV Companies\nChina will be the biggest EV market opportunity, and EV start-ups may do better there because there isn't as much entrenched competition from domestic auto companies. China is already the largest EV market in the world, with almost a million EVs sold in 2019. Its EV market represents almost half of the global EV sales volume and is much larger than the U.S. market.\nThe Chinese government has ambitions to become a global leader in new energy vehicles. Soon after the coronavirus outbreak subsided within the country, Chinese authorities announced new policies to support the auto and electric vehicle industries.\nThese Chinese companies are traded through American depository shares (ADS) that contain certain risks. There are financial reporting and transparency risks with these companies, and on top of that, the newer companies are being classified as \"emerging growth\" companies that are already exempt from certain transparency requirements set out in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Like the previous EV stock, these stocks have also been very volatile.\nIn addition to legacy auto manufacturers like BYD, there are also three Chinese EV companies that are publicly traded through American depositary shares.\nBYD Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:BYDDY)\nBYD, which means build your dreams, is the automotive subsidiary of the Chinese multinational BYD Co Ltd. It was founded in January 2003, following BYD Company's acquisition of Tsinchuan Automobile Company. The company produces automobiles, buses, electric bicycles, forklifts, rechargeable batteries, and trucks. The current model range of automobiles includes electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and petrol-engined vehicles. Thirteen years ago, on the advice of his famously skeptical lieutenant, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett made a $232 million investment in BYD, a relatively unknown Chinese car company.\nBy parlaying BYD's rechargeable battery technology into a fast-growing carmaking operation, it gained a foothold in the fledgling electric vehicle market, building longer-lasting batteries and cheaper vehicles than American and Japanese manufacturers were managing to do at the time. In BYD, Buffett and Munger believed they had found a company with a shot at one day becoming the largest player in a global automobile market that was inevitably going electric.\nBYD's start to 2021 was strong with 19,871 plug-in electric cars sold in January in China, including hybrid plug-ins. That was a big increase over 2020 but not as much as 2019.\nLI Auto (LI)\nLixiang, formerly known as Chehejia (\"Car and Home\"), was founded in 2015 and went public in the U.S. on July 30th, 2020. It is a Beijing-based electric-vehicle startup with vertically integrated manufacturing. It designs, researches, manufactures, sells, and offers services featuring a few models of electric vehicles.\nThe company's SUVs are hybrids of a sort. They use electric motors (one on the front axle and one on the rear), but those motors are powered by a combination of a 40.5kWh battery packanda 1.2-liter turbocharged engine paired to a 45-liter fuel tank and a 100kW electric generator, which generates power for the battery pack in real-time. The idea is that the car can be driven for about 100 miles on battery power alone, but it has a total range of nearly 500 miles when leveraging the combustion engine generator.\nThe Company's primary product is an SUV under its brand Li ONE. It also sells peripheral products and provides related services, such as charging stalls, vehicle internet connection services, and extended lifetime warranties. Li Auto is looking to sell a variety of SUVs built on its hybrid technology that range from around $21,000 to about $70,000. The company started shipping its first model in late 2019. It's a midsize SUV is well-appointed and has lots of touchscreens and technology. A full-size premium version is planned for release in 2022.\nDeliveries of Li ONEs were 14,464 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a 67.0% quarter-over-quarter increase and setting a new quarterly record. Deliveries for the full year 2020 reached 32,624 vehicles. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $635 million.\nLI auto went public on July 30th, 2020, raising $1.1 billion at an initial price of $15.50 per share but quickly reached almost $24. It is currently valued at approximately $37 billion at a price of approximately $25.72 per share.\nXPeng (XPEV)\nXiaopeng (XPeng) Motors is a Chinese electric vehicle and technology company that designs and manufactures smart cars. It was founded in 2015 and went public on August 27, 2020, using American depository shares, raising about $1 billion. To date, it has raised about $2.6 billion.\nXPeng aims its EVs at technology-savvy middle-class Chinese consumers, with prices ranging from $22,000 to $45,000 after government subsidies. In some ways, it is a Tesla knock-off at a much lower price. XPeng started production of the G3 in November 2018, and as of July 31, 2020, delivered 18,741. It started production of the P7 and began delivery in May 2020, and as of July 31, 2020, it had delivered 1,966 EVs. The P7 has a range of more than 400 miles. It plans to launch a third Smart EV, a sedan, in 2021. The G3 was among the top-three best-selling electric SUVs in China in 2019.\nXPeng is interesting because it has a platform strategy and is moving aggressively into autonomous driving. It uses a platform strategy to expand product offerings by launching one Smart EV model each year to broaden the addressable market. It builds new models on two highly flexible Smart EV platforms, called David and Edward, respectively. The David platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,600 millimeters to 2,800 millimeters, and the Edward platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,800 millimeters to 3,100 millimeters. It also adopted a platform approach for software systems.\nXPeng claims to be developing an autonomous driving capability for its EVs. The P7 is the first production vehicle to feature the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Xavier system-on-a-chip (SoC) autonomous driving platform. The company's Smart Electric Platform Architecture (SEPA) runs on 2 chips - NVIDIA for the XPILOT and Qualcomm's Snapdragon™ 820A for intelligent services and infotainment, including cameras inside and outside, radars, HD-map, and ultrasonic sensors. Like Tesla, it claims it can create sufficiently-autonomous driving without lidar.\nTo enhance brand recognition and allow more people to experience its Smart EVs, it deployed a small number of Smart EVs in a ride-hailing service in Guangzhou on a trial basis, but it has no current plan to scale up a ride-hailing service.\nXpeng sees first-quarter 2021 deliveries rising 450% year-over-year to 12,500 vehicles. Revenues are expected to increase 533% from a year ago. The company didn't provide bottom-line estimates for the quarter, but will likely post another net loss as it ramps up manufacturing, invests in R&amp;D, and builds out a new manufacturing plant set to open in 2022.\nXpeng reported selling 12,964 vehicles in Q4 2020, up 303% from a year ago. It delivered a total of 27,041 vehicles in 2020, up 112%. It makes the P7 sedan, a rival to the made-in-China Tesla Model 3, and the small G3 SUV.\nThe stock opened on August 27, 2020 at a price of $15 and a valuation of $11 billion, but its stock jumped more than 40% shortly after. Its current valuation is about $35 billion at a stock price of approximately $36.13 per share. It had about $300 million in revenue in 2019 with a loss of about $500 million.\nNio (NIO)\nUnlike previous companies, Nio has been a public company for some time. It originally went public in the U.S. back in September of 2018, selling IPO shares at $6.26 and raising $1 billion.\nNio's IPO was far from smooth. After going public at $6.26 per share, it traded down to nearly $1. Then in the middle of the coronavirus outbreak, Nio received a much-needed investment of $1 billion from investors, including state-backed entities.\nNio designs, jointly manufactures, and sells smart and connected premium electric vehicles, attempting to develop next-generation technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving, and artificial intelligence. Joint manufacturing means that it uses a state-owned contract manufacturer to build its cars.\nNio plans to provide customers with comprehensive, convenient, and innovative charging solutions and other user-centric services. It began deliveries of the ES8, a 7-seater high-performance premium electric SUV in China in June 2018, and its variant, the six-seater ES8, in March 2019. Nio officially launched the ES6, a 5-seater high-performance premium electric SUV, in December 2018 and began deliveries in June 2019. It officially launched the EC6, a 5-seater smart premium electric Coupe SUV, in December 2019 with deliveries in 2020.\nNio sold 17,353 EVs in Q4/2020 and 43,728 for the year. It warned a shortage in chips and batteries will force a production slowdown to 7,500 a month in Q2 from 10,000 vehicles a month in February.\nNio currently trades at more than $43 per share, including a big jump recently, for a valuation of approximately $48 billion. It had revenue of $2.3 billion in 2019 for a loss of $3.8 billion.\nSummary\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this should provide exciting new investment opportunities. However, the investment terrain is complex. There are dozens of new start-ups where the public can now invest that were previously exclusively venture capital investment opportunities. Many of these are following different roads to success. There are legacy auto manufacturers that could prosper or get destroyed in this transition. There are some exciting new EV company opportunities in China. And then there is Tesla.\nThis EV roadmap is intended to help investors explore different roads to investment by explaining the basic strategies for these EV companies. These roads can have different opportunities and risks, and the roadmap helps to frame these. Above all, valuation is an overriding risk that is highlighted throughout this article.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>New Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNew Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-19 14:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.\nLast October, I wrote a popular article providing...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车","01211":"比亚迪股份","NKLA":"Nikola Corporation","LI":"理想汽车","GP":"GreenPower Motor Company Inc.","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","GOEV":"Canoo Inc.","WKHS":"Workhorse Group, Inc.","F":"福特汽车","002594":"比亚迪","TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来","FSR":"菲斯克","HYLN":"Hyliion Holdings Corp."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1196402560","content_text":"Summary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.\nLast October, I wrote a popular article providing a roadmap for investing in electric vehicles, but since then, so much has changed: new entrants, new strategies, fluctuating valuations, etc.\nSo, I updated and greatly expanded the previous EV investment roadmap.\nThis update includes a deeper look at valuations for 23 EV companies with revenue projections, when available.\nIt also classifies these EV companies into their primary market categories and summarizes their different strategies.\n\nPhoto by Sven Loeffler/iStock via Getty Images\nMy article Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap published five months ago, was popular, and some followers have requested an update. Many new EV companies entered the market, most of them through SPACs. Valuations fluctuated wildly, and there has been a great deal of publicity around these companies.\nThis new updated EV investment roadmap is greatly expanded. In addition to updating the strategies and progress of companies previously discussed, I expanded the number of companies covered. This article also groups EV companies into their primary markets, enabling better comparisons and evaluation of market opportunities. In addition, it includes a comparative valuation chart showing every company's market cap with a comparison to projected revenue, where possible. This takes advantage (good or bad) of looking at the long-term revenue forecasts provided in SPAC mergers that public companies can't make.\nIn addition to the EV manufacturers discussed here, there are also EV investment opportunities in charging station companies, battery manufacturers, and battery materials companies. These were covered in the original roadmap and may also be updated in a later article.\nApproximately 2 million EVs were sold in 2019, and although the number declined along with all auto sales in 2020, it is forecasted to increase in 2021 and reach 8-10 million by 2025. Some forecast that EV sales will be greater than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2030, or even earlier. The automobile market appears to be moving toward a historical transformation, and exceptional investment gains can be made by anticipating new emerging industries and investing in the eventual winners of those new industries. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)are obvious examples. Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to create a new emerging industry.\nThere are also significant risks. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to be released in the next three years, which will drive rapid growth in EV sales. However, the expected sales from these new models, as well as the increasing expectations from Tesla, most likely exceed the total projected market. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the companies covered here won't exist five years from now. It reminds me of the internet bubble of the late 1990s when scores of internet-based companies went public with little or no revenue. Almost all of these failed within three years -- however, a couple, including Amazon, went on to enormous success.\nEVs provide a major new investment opportunity with high risks. To succeed, you need to have a clear EV investment roadmap.\nSo, how can you invest in this new emerging market? The EV landscape is complex and investment opportunities are varied. While Tesla is the unquestioned leader in EVs, some consider it overvalued and unlikely to show exceptional returns to new investors. The current U.S. legacy automakers are committed to introducing many new EVs in the next few years, and they have some entrenched advantages with volume manufacturing capabilities, a dealer infrastructure, and loyal customers. There are exciting new EV start-ups in the U.S. that have come public this year, mostly through Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), and there are several interesting publicly traded Chinese EV manufacturers.\nThis new roadmap for EV investment classifies companies into three primary markets segments:\n\nTheConsumer Retailsegment includes EVs sold to consumers individually, such as SUVs, pickup trucks, sedans, etc.\nTheCommercial Deliverysegment includes local delivery EV vans and trucks sold to fleets.\nTheMedium- and Long-Haul Truckingsegment includes heavier Class 4 - Class 8 trucks, as well as special industrial vehicles.\n\nIn addition, it categorizesLegacy ManufacturersandChinese EV Companies. This enables investors to evaluate investment opportunities by considering unique opportunities within each market segment.\nThere is an enormous amount of investment optimism for EVs, and retail investors have been aggressively buying into EV stocks with seemingly no regard for valuation. Then there is the additional challenge of valuing companies with no revenue, especially those coming public through SPACs. So, valuation is an important investment consideration.\nSo let's start by looking at an overview of comparative EV valuations.\nEV Investment Valuation Overview\nThe following chart summarizes valuations for 23 EV companies, including several legacy companies. For SPACs, market cap estimates are computed using the pro forma number of shares at closing, otherwise using the valuation of the SPAC prior to closing drastically underestimates the valuation, which may be misleading to novice investors. Price/Sales ratios (market cap divided by revenue) are used to compare valuations. As a benchmark, current P/S ratios vary. For example, auto and truck companies have a ratio of 2.7X. Software companies have the highest ratios of over 10X.\nIn the chart, companies that currently have revenue show current P/S ratios. Where projections are available, projected P/S ratios are computed. A note of caution, however. Many of the EV companies came public through SPACs and published their projections (which public companies cannot do), and many of these are likely to prove unrealistic.\nAll of the longer-term revenue projections come from the company (C) forecasts with a SPAC. Some of these may turn out to be accurate, not many are most likely unrealistic. Some, like Lucid, Faraday, and Arrival forecast hitting more than $10 billion in revenue in a few years, when it took Tesla more than 10. Things are different now and they might achieve these, but they could also find that it will take longer to complete development, ramp up production, and create enough customer demand. Many companies may also find that there will be significant capital requirements to achieve this type of growth, and shareholders will be diluted.\n\nTesla, the \"gold standard\" in EVs, has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, which many people believe is overvalued. Its market cap is approximately 20X 2020 revenue and 10X estimated 2022 revenue.\nTesla (TSLA)\nIn the U.S., and to a lesser extent in China, Tesla is the dominant EV provider. It has approximately 60% of the U.S. EV market and about 20% of the market in China. I own a Tesla and love it, but an investment in Tesla stock requires getting comfortable with its valuation. Tesla has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, although declining lately, which some consider still overvalued while others see upside potential.\nThe investment opportunity with Tesla is based on the expectation that it will continue to dominate the EV market, or at least maintain significant market share, despite much greater competition from the expected introduction of hundreds of new EV models in the next few years.\nThere is a great deal already published about Tesla, so I'll move on.\nLegacy Automakers\nSome people think that the legacy automakers will simply fade away. Historically, that was the case in some other industries, but it is not going to happen to most automakers. They are not standing still waiting to become obsolete. Most have aggressive strategies to replace ICE vehicles with EVs. GM plans to invest $27 billion and build and launch as many as 30 new EV models by 2025. Ford plans to invest $29 billion in EVs by 2025 and launch as many as 16 EVs in the next two years. Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY)has also committed billions to develop new EVs.\nThe competitive advantage that legacy automakers have in selling their new EVs is their dealer network. Will new EV customers prefer to continue going to their regular auto dealer to buy their new EV?\nAlmost all legacy automakers worldwide are developing and launching EVs including Volkswagen, Peugeot, Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi, Hyundai/Kia. Let's look a little more closely at GM and Ford as the leaders in the U.S.\nGeneral Motors (GM)\nGM has committed to introducing 20 new electric vehicles by 2023, including EVs across Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC, and Buick. It recently announced that it has already sold out the first-year production of its Hummer electric pickup. By mid-decade, it expects to sell a million EVs per year in its two largest markets: North America and China. As a reference point, Tesla reported deliveries of 367,500 vehicles globally in 2019.\nGM has a solid platform strategy for its EVs. It plans on building its EVs using five interchangeable drive units and three different motors from its Ultium Drive System platform. Ultium energy options range from 50 to 200 kWh, which could enable an estimated range of up to 400 miles. Most of its EVs will have 400-volt battery packs and up to 200 kW fast-charging capability while the truck platform will have 800-volt battery packs and 350 kW fast-charging capabilities.\nThe key building blocks of the Ultium battery system are large-scale, high-energy cells. Engineered in partnership with LG Energy Solutions, they use both advanced chemistry and a smart cell design that's optimized for a broad portfolio of EVs. GM engineers and scientists are actively researching and testing new elements in battery chemistry to lower costs and improve charge times. Ultium can contain either vertically- or horizontally-stacked cells to integrate into vehicle design: vertically for trucks, SUVs, and crossovers, or horizontally for cars and performance vehicles. As new chemistry is developed and becomes available, the battery management system could digitally update the modules.\nGM also has other EV opportunities with its BrightDrop commercial EV service and its Cruise subsidiary. BrightDrop will not just sell delivery EVs, it will provide an entire service platform for commercial delivery customers. Its set of electric delivery vehicles starts with the EV600 and includes the BrightDrop EP1, a pod-like electric pallet. SeeGeneral Motors' Aggressive EV/AV Strategies May Payoff Big.\nWith its highest stock price of $61.65, GM's current market cap is approximately $89 billion, increasing primarily because of its progress with EVs. This approximately 3X valuation in 2018, but still only 13% of Tesla.\nFord (F)\nFord is also investing heavily in EVs. It just introduced the Mustang Mach-E, a battery-powered crossover with sports car styling, and plans to introduce an all-electric version of its best-selling F-150 pickup later this year. Also, planned is an electric edition of the full-size Transit van, which has been popular in the commercial delivery market. Ford has confirmed plans to build a luxury Lincoln crossover on a battery-powered platform provided by Rivian. The automaker also plans to introduce two new midsize electric crossovers, one each for the Ford and Lincoln brands by 2023.\nMustang Mach-E. Source: Ford\nFord's market cap is approximately $51 billion, twice its previous market cap, and also increasing.\nConsumer Retail EV Companies\nThe consumer retail market has some unique characteristics for new EV companies. Sales are made individually, not in fleets. This diversifies the risk upon launch because only a sufficient number of customers need to be attracted to the new EV. A wave of popularity can provide terrific momentum.\nHowever, the lack of a dealer network can be an impediment. Selling EVs directly to consumers instead of through dealers is prohibited in most states. By law, auto manufacturers can't compete with franchised dealers. These are laws that go back many decades to protect dealers. This can be a major impediment for new companies without established independent dealer franchises. So, new AV companies. like Tesla, need to sell their vehicles online. Tesla has successfully done this, but it took a lot of work and time. Lack of a dealer network also creates impediments in service.\nIn addition, over the next 4-5 years, autonomous capabilities will be increasingly important to luxury vehicles. This may prove to be a challenge to start-up EV companies because they can't afford to develop this technology.\nLet's look closer at the alternative consumer retail EV investments.\nLucid Motors (CCIV)\nLucid was founded in 2007 under the name Atieva and originally focused on building electric vehicle batteries and powertrains for other vehicle manufacturers. The company rebranded itself as Lucid Motors in October 2016 and shifted its strategy to develop an all-electric, high-performance, luxury vehicle. Shortly after that, it encountered financial difficulties and struggled to get short-term funding. In 2018 it raised more than $1 billion in investment, primarily from Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund, and gave up a majority of the company.\nLucid Motors reached an agreement to become a publicly-traded company through a merger with the SPAC Churchill Capital IV Corp., in one of the largest deals SPAC EV deals. The combined company, in which Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund will continue to be the largest shareholder, had a transaction equity value of $11.75 billion (for $10/share). At the same time, it closed a PIPE investment priced at $15 a share, giving it an implied pro forma equity value of $24 billion. Rumors about this deal circulated before the transaction was formally announced, making it one of the most anticipated SPAC deals. The hype and speculation drove up the stock price of Churchill Capital IV Corp. from its opening price of $10 a share to almost $60. I believe that some of this may have been driven by novice SPAC investors who didn't realize that the valuation of CCIV didn't include the eventual valuation of Lucid. The share price dropped more than 30% after the details of the deal were announced. It's also likely that Lucid renegotiated the terms of the merger based on the price jump.\nThe company's first product is the Lucid Air, a well-equipped luxury electric vehicle that features 406 miles of projected range and 480 horsepower with a starting price of $77,400, or $69,900 after the U.S. Federal Tax Credit of $7,500. This new Lucid Air model is positioned as a high-performance, ultra-efficient luxury EV sedan in a line of future vehicles that are expected to include Lucid Air Touring, Grand Touring, and Dream Edition versions.\nThe company plans to begin production and deliveries of the Lucid Air in North America in the second half of 2021. Previously the company aimed to begin deliveries earlier in 2021. It intends to sell the car in Europe in 2022, followed by China in 2023. Lucid vehicles will be produced at its new factory in Casa Grande, Arizona. The company plans to expand the factory in phases in the coming years to have the capacity to produce 365,000 units per year at scale. The initial phase of the $700 million factory construction was completed late last year and will have the capacity to produce 30,000 vehicles a year.\nLucid also apparently has a commitment to build an assembly plant in Saudi Arabia, which was rumored to be a condition of the $1 billion investment from the Saudi public fund. The Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund also provided $600 million in bridge financing and invested in the SPAC deal as well. So, while this assembly plant may be expensive and may not be critical, it will most likely need to happen.\nLucid has ambitious plans to achieve $14 billion in revenue in 2025, and its current stock price at $29.17, which gives it a market cap of more than $46 billion, may already reflect those ambitions. Its market cap is roughly the same as Ford.\nFisker (FSR)\nFisker, which had its origins with Fisker Automotive, is an interesting story that ended in bankruptcy. Henrik Fisker originally co-founded Fisker Automotive in 2007. He was responsible for designing many premium cars such as the Aston Martin. Subsequently, Fisker Automotive had to deal with a Tesla lawsuit against Fisker Automotive alleging it stole Tesla's technology, a controversial $528.7 million conditional loan from the Department of Energy, a recall of its battery produced by A123, and the loss of several hundred vehicles in hurricane Sandy. Henrik Fisker resigned in March 2013 because of disagreements over business strategy and in November 2013, Fisker filed its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case.\nHowever, Henrik Fisker retained the Fisker brand and trademarks, and in 2016 he started another electric vehicle company named Fisker Inc. with the Fisker brand and trademarks. In 2019, Fisker shifted from developing a sports car with a solid-state battery to the Ocean SUV featuring a lithium-ion battery, which it later abandoned for a solid-state battery.\nFisker is positioning itself in a unique segment for those who want the most environmentally friendly EV. While this may be an early growth segment for EVs, it's difficult to estimate its eventual competitive advantage and the size of this environmentally-friendly market segment.\nThe Ocean is a crossover made of recycled metal and plastic with an expected base price of $37,499, and an expected lease of less than $400 a month. Fisker's plan is essentially a lease-only business model that lets customers keep a vehicle for years or return it at any time. It aims to source motors, batteries, and other components from technical partnerships with automakers and will outsource production from existing auto plants. Fisker is currently taking reservations at $250 for the Ocean. It also announced an agreement with Foxconn to jointly develop a vehicle pioneering a new market segment to be sold globally under the Fisker brand commencing in Q4 2023. at the end of 2022. Production will start at Magna Steyr's manufacturing facilities in Europe. At the end of February 2021, it had 12,467 cancellable reservations.\nFisker Ocean. Source: Fisker\nFisker went public using a SPAC (Spartan Energy). The original combination with SPAQ in October 2020 was valued at $2.9 billion with a cash investment of approximately $1 billion. The stock currently trades at approximately $21 per share, after reaching a high of $28.50, from the original price of $10, which is a market cap of $4.6 billion. Fisker projects $3.3 billion in revenue in 2023. It had almost $1 billion in cash at the end of 2020 and expected to use almost half of this in 2021: $250 million on operating expenses and $250 million in capital investments. If the Ocean is delayed into 2023, Fisker risks missing its revenue objective and will potentially need additional cash to complete development and launch.\nFaraday Future (PSAC)\nFaraday Future was originally established in May 2014 by Chinese businessman Jia Yueting. It is headquartered in Los Angeles and has offices in Silicon Valley, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu. Faraday Future also had a turbulent history. In 2016, it struggled financially, and in 2017 some key executives departed over a dispute about financial issues. They later founded Canoo.\nIn December 2018 the company announced layoffs due to a cash crunch and financial troubles. The company's founder Jia Yueting filed for personal bankruptcy in the United States' federal court in Delaware on October 14, 2019. Following Jia's personal bankruptcy, he decided to step down from his role as CEO of Faraday Future in order to assume a new position as the Chief Product and User Officer. He was replaced as CEO by Carsten Breitfeld, the former CEO at rival electric vehicle startup Byton.\nSomehow, Faraday was able to raise $2.3 billion in private funding over 5 rounds from a variety of investors. In early 2018, it received $1.5 billion in funding from an undisclosed investor from Hong Kong.\nFaraday's flagship product offering will be the FF 91, featuring 1,050 HP, 0-60 mph in less than 2.4 seconds, zero gravity seats with the largest 60-degree reclining angles, and a user experience designed to create a mobile, connected, and luxurious living space. The FF 91 is targeted to launch in 2022.\nFF 91. Source: Faraday Future\nIts strategic partners include one of China's top three OEMs and a critical Chinese city, which the company believes will help establish its presence in the Chinese vehicle market.\nFaraday Future plans several cars based on its Variable Platform Architecture. FF 91 is the first production vehicle and flagship model. Pricing will range between $120,000 and upwards of $200,000, which places it against formidable opponents. Faraday Future is already looking forward to expanding its range with a pair of smaller models named FF 81 and FF 71. The FF 81 is planned to be priced at $75,000 to 95,000 with a 2023 release. The FF 71 is planned to be priced at $45,000 to $65,000 with a planned release of 2024.\nThe Primary Manufacturing Facility for FF 91 is in Hanford, CA with contract manufacturing for future models in Gunsan, South Korea.\nFaraday Future is planning high-Level automation with a Level-3 capable system using a redundant safety architecture based on NVIDIA Xavier System-on-a-chip. It will be capable of highway auto-drive and hardware ready for advanced auto-drive. It is targeting full autonomous valet parking & summon in any parking lot or structure. Eventually, it expects full auto-drive, including full 360˚ sensor coverage for advanced auto-drive & auto-park features.\nIn January 2021, Faraday Future announced that the company would go public through a reverse merger with the special purpose acquisition company Property Solutions Acquisition Corp. (PSAC). The combined company will be valued at $3.4 billion. Faraday Future is expected to set up contract manufacturing operations in China through their partnership with Geely. Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn is also expected to serve as an additional strategic partner.\nFaraday Future projects $10.5 billion in revenue in 2024 and $21.5 billion in 2025. Revenue is expected to start in 2022 with the delivery of 2,400 vehicles for $504 million. Most likely these projections could prove to be optimistic. At a current stock price of approximately $12.80, it has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nLordstown Motors (RIDE)\nLordstown Motors based in Lordstown, Ohio, was originally founded in 2018 by Steve Burns, the former CEO of Workhorse Group. The company licensed technology from Workhorse in return for royalties and a 10% ownership. Lordstown is named after the famous GM Lordstown manufacturing plant, which it acquired in November 2019 in an unusual transaction. GM announced that it was closing the plant and was under a great deal of pressure for that decision. So, GM \"sold\" the plant to a company that was renamed Lordstown for an estimated $20 million that it loaned to the acquiring company. Subsequently, the sale was redefined to be part of a $75 million investment by GM, of which $50 million was an in-kind exchange for the plant.\nLordstown went public through the SPAC DiamondPeak Holdings Corp. in 2020. It currently has more than 400 employees.\nIts first product is the Lordstown Endurance, a full-sized EV pickup truck. Lordstown is positioning Endurance for the pickup fleet market segment. The expected price is $52,000+, and it claimed to have more than 100,000 pre-orders by January 2021. However, a recent research article published by a short seller claimed \"Our research has revealed that Lordstown's order book consists of fake or entirely non-binding orders, from customers that generally do not even have fleets of vehicles.\" Lordstown is disputing that article.\nIt believes the fleet pickup market segment is underserved with no current EV-focused competition. It estimates that the full-sized pick-up truck fleet market is 1.2 million vehicles per year in the U.S., but it's more fragmented than other truck fleets. Pickup \"fleets\" tend to be much smaller and local, so there may not be much of a market distinction for a small company buying several EV pickups from a traditional auto dealer. About half of the total U.S. pickup market is classified as fleet sales, meaning more than one.\nEven though Lordstown is targeting the commercial fleet market, it is a similar product to the Ford EV F-150. So I classify it in the consumer EV category. It is a class 2 vehicle. Lordstown also may enter the SUV market in the longer-term.\nThe Endurance will compete against future models from Rivian and Tesla, as well as Ford and GM in ICE pick-ups and their upcoming EV pick-ups. Ford plans on selling its EV F-150 in mid-2022. Initial production of the Endurance is expected in the second half of 2021, so it may have a short market advantage. Nevertheless, it forecasts selling 65,000 vehicles in 2023 and 107,000 in 2024. These estimates could be a large percentage of the EV pick-up market in those years.\nAt the SPAC merger, the implied valuation for Lordstown was $1.6 billion, including a $500 million PIPE and the $75 million by GM. Lordstown's financial projections appear to be aggressive. It projects to start shipping the Endurance in late 2021 with projected revenue in 2022 of $1.7 billion, increasing to $5.8 billion in 2024. Its stock price at approximately $13.60 values the company at a market cap of approximately $2.2 billion. The value of the company depends on the likelihood of achieving its projections.\nA fleet sales strategy makes sense for Lordstown since it would be too expensive to build a retail sales and service capability. However, it's not clear that this will become a distinct competitive advantage. Some small fleets may still prefer to buy their EV pickups from established local dealers with service capabilities.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nCanoo started as Evelozcity in 2017 and rebranded as Canoo in the spring of 2019. Canoo is a Los Angeles-based company that develops electric vehicles. It has over 350 employees. Canoo has designed a modular electric platform purpose-built to deliver maximum vehicle interior space, which is adaptable to support a wide range of vehicle applications for consumers and businesses. Canoo expects to launch its first consumer model in 2022, simply named the Canoo that will be available by subscription, followed shortly after by a multi-purpose delivery vehicle and a sports vehicle, each built off of the same underlying platform. Canoo went public using a SPAC (Hennessy Capital Acquisition) and now trades as GOEV.\nCanoo's all-electric skateboard-like platform is designed to support both consumer retail and commercial vehicle configurations. The EV leverages Canoo's flat skateboard architecture for a high level of usable interior space. Its commercial vehicle program, expected in 2023, addresses a projected $50B+ last-mile delivery market with an EV platform that maximizes cargo volume.\nHyundai Motor Group said it would jointly develop an electric vehicle platform with the company.\nCanoo's platform strategy is interesting. It could be used as an EV platform for custom fleets of delivery vehicles. It has no AV development, but it claims to be \"AV Ready\" which could be useful for AV companies wanting to build custom AV delivery fleets.\nIts all-electric multi-purpose delivery vehicle is expected to be priced starting at approximately $33,000. It is based on Canoo's proprietary electric platform and will be offered in two initial size variants, with others to follow. Limited availability will begin in 2022, with scaled production and launch planned for 2023. Customers can pre-order the multi-purpose delivery vehicle for a refundable deposit of $100 per vehicle\nIt plans to offer two multi-purpose delivery vehicles: the MPDV1 and the larger MPDV2. The first has a 200-foot cargo volume and a range of 130-200 miles. It offers more capacity than today's ICE delivery vehicles at an affordable price with urban mobility enabled by a space-efficient footprint. The vehicle is also designed to fit within many height-restricted areas like parking garages.\nThe MPDV2 has a cargo volume of 450 feet and a range of 90-190 miles. Its roof and step-in height enable individuals to easily walk-in the vehicle and accommodate a standing position while inside.\nThe original SPAC transaction provided approximately $600 million, with a pro forma equity value of approximately $2.4 billion. Like other SPAC mergers, its stock price has fluctuated. It currently trades at about $15.90 per share for a market cap of approximately $3.7 billion. Canoo projects $2.0 billion in revenue in 2025 from about $500 million in engineering services, $1.2 billion from its consumer vehicle subscriptions, and the remainder from its commercial program. Canoo expects revenue of more than $300 million in 2022 after the launch of its lifestyle consumer vehicle.\nSince its first products are aimed at consumers, as is most of its forecasted 2025 revenue, I categorize it primarily as a consumer EV company. However, I think the design of that Canoo vehicle may not attract enough customers. More importantly, its subscription service way of selling its EV to consumers is risky. I think it has more potential in the commercial market, however, a dual strategy (consumer and commercial) is challenging. I like its skateboard platform design and that could prove to be a competitive advantage.\nRivian\nAlthough not yet public, I include Rivian because it has plans for an IPO as soon as Sept 2021, although it could slip into 2022. There are rumors that the company is targeting a market valuation of approximately $50B. Rivian has already raised more than $8 billion to date from Amazon, Ford, T. Rowe Price, and others.\nRivian has developed and vertically integrated a connected electric platform that can be flexibly applied to a range of applications, including the company's adventure products, as well as B2B products such as the Amazon last-mile delivery vans. The company's initial products, the R1T and R1S, provide a combination of performance, off-road capability, and utility. These vehicles will be produced at Rivian's manufacturing plant in Normal, Ill., with customer deliveries expected to begin in summer 2021. The launch of the R1S three-row electric SUV will follow in August.\nAdditional lower-priced models are being planned. The expected R2 series would include at least two smaller electric vehicles to coincide with the smaller platform, then another platform for R3.\nCommercial Delivery EV Companies\nEV truck companies differ based on the type of truck they are developing. The technology and markets are very different, so I separate them into two categories. The first category includes commercial delivery vehicles.\nCompanies making EV delivery vehicles have some major advantages that could make them good investments. First, delivery vehicles typically travel less than 250 miles during a day, so they can be conveniently recharged overnight. Secondly, they are typically sold in large quantities to fleets. This means that building a retail sales infrastructure is not necessary. It only requires a small salesforce. In addition, maintenance can also be provided at the fleet's operational center, so not as many service centers are required.\nThe disadvantage in this market is that there are a relatively small number of customers that buy in large volumes, so if the EV manufacturer can't get enough large customers, they may not be able to stay in business. GM estimates the combined market opportunity for parcel and food delivery, as well as reverse logistics, in the U.S. will be more than $850 billion by 2025.\nThe commercial market is expected to be a major growth area for EVs. Other start-up automakers like Rivian as well as legacy automakers such as Ford, Daimler, and GM have announced plans to enter the segment. GM recently announced its BrightDrop ecosystem for commercial customers that includes an all-new electric delivery van, the EV600 available by the end of 2021, as well as an integrated autonomous pallet and related services.\nThis group of EV companies focuses primarily on commercial delivery. In general, these are in the light-duty trucks category, although it also includes some medium-duty trucks. This generally includes the following commercial truck classes:\n\nClass 1: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 0-6,000 pounds or 0-2,722 kilograms.\nClass 2: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 6,001-10,000 pounds or 2,722-4,536 kilograms.1\nClass 3: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 10,001-14,000 pounds or 4,536-6,350 kilograms.\n\nIt can also include somewhat larger medium-duty EV delivery trucks:\n\nClass 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.\nClass 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.\n\nEV delivery trucks also have an advantage over ICE vehicles because they can have a greater delivery storage space. Smaller buses and transit vehicles are also included in this category.\nLast-mile package delivery is not an immediate-term autonomous vehicle opportunity because it requires a delivery person to be on the truck anyway.\nWorkhorse Group (WKHS)\nWorkhorse has been a public company for ten years. Originally AMP Electric Vehicles, it was established in 2007 as a developmental-stage vehicle electrification company, focusing on conversions. AMP Electric Vehicles went public in 2010 trading on the OTC market under the AMPD symbol. When the economic benefits of conversion became less certain, it pivoted away from passenger vehicles and began to focus on electrifying commercial vehicles. AMP acquired the Workhorse brand and the Workhorse custom chassis assembly plant in Union City. In March of 2013, AMP formally changed its name to Workhorse Group Incorporated.\nThe Company designs and builds a last-mile delivery electric vehicle. The C-Series EVs cover the larger size of commercial delivery vehicles in Classes 3-5. As part of its solutions, it also develops cloud-based, real-time telematics performance monitoring systems. It sells its vehicles to fleet customers directly and through its primary distributor, Ryder Systems. It is currently focused on bringing the C-Series electric delivery truck to market and fulfilling the existing backlog of orders.\nThe C-Series looks like a viable EV replacement for the 350,000 last-mile delivery vehicles sold in the U.S. annually. It recently announced an increased driving range from 100 miles to 160, which should open more market opportunities. It has a viable short-term go-to-market strategy selling fleets to delivery companies. It currently has test vehicles with UPS, DHL, FedEx, Amazon, and Walmart.\nWorkhorse recently lost out on the United States Postal Services Next Generation Delivery Vehicle project, however, it is in the process of challenging this decision. Additionally, its investment in Lordstown also provides an indirect investment opportunity. On November 7, 2019, the Company entered a transaction with Lordstown Motors to grant LMC a perpetual and worldwide license to certain intellectual property relating to its W-15 electric pickup truck platform and related technology in exchange for royalties, equity interest (approximately 10%) in LMC, and other considerations. This was a $320 million asset for Workhorse at the end of 2020.\nWorkhorse received a significant increase in orders in Q4/2020 but built just seven trucks in the fourth quarter due to production systems and supply chain issues. Workhorse plans to continue to take it slow, striving to build three of its composite-body battery-electric trucks a day in March with a plan to reach 10 trucks a day by the end of June. This makes its original 2021 goal of producing 1,800 trucks unlikely. It partnered with Hitachi and Hitachi Capital America (\"HCA\") to improve the Company's manufacturing, operational, and supply chain capabilities as well as to develop a national dealer network to support Workhorse's sales with vehicle financing options for both dealers and customers.\nWorkhorse has a market cap of approximately $1.9 billion. While Workhorse had ongoing revenue, unlike many other new EV companies, its revenue is still insignificant. It had a revenue of $1.4 million in 2020 and $377,000 in 2019. It has a backlog of over 8,000 vehicles but doesn't expect to be able to build many of those in 2021. It raised $270 million in capital over several financings, providing the Company with additional capital to build its backlog. It had cash of $215 million as of March 1, 2021. Because Workhorse is a traditional public company, it hasn't made long-term financial projections like SPAC-based companies.\nElectric Last Mile (FIII)\nElectric Last Mile, based in Troy Michigan, was founded by Jason Luo, former CEO of Ford China before it was acquired by China's Ningbo Joyson Electronic for $920 million in 2016, including James Taylor, former CEO of GM's Hummer brand and former CEO of electric car maker Karma Automotive. Taylor serves as the company's top executive with Luo as the company's chairman.\nThe company plans to launch a small electric delivery van (class 1-2), called the UD-1, in the third quarter of 2021, and then introduce an Urban Utility vehicle (Class 2-3) in 2022. These are expected to compete with Workhorse, Rivian, Canoo, as well as the Ford eTransit and the GMC BV1, none of which is expected to be a Class 1 vehicle.\nThe company says it has 30,000 preorders for its van, representing more than $1 billion in sales. Electric Last Miles vehicles will be based on Sokon's commercial van made in China through a joint venture with Dongfeng Automobile Co Ltd. in order to accelerate development time.\nElectric Last Mile (ELM) is expected to manufacture the vans in a former General Motors Co. Hummer plant in Mishawaka, Ind., that the company is acquiring from China's Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co. Ltd. The plant has the capacity to produce 100,000 vehicles annually with plans to build approximately 4,000 UD-1 vans by the end of 2021. The UD-1 has a starting price of $32,500 and a range of 150 miles. The battery for the vehicle is expected to be supplied by the Chinese battery company CATL.\nELM believes that it has a competitive advantage because its first vehicle, the ELM Urban Delivery, is scheduled to be available in 2021. It is based on a proven, existing platform developed and sold by Sokon Group in the Asian market, where there are 30,000 of these electric delivery vehicles driving 1.5 million miles every day. At the close of the business combination, ELM will be an independent, U.S. company producing electric vehicles in the U.S. with Sokon Group providing access to its know-how, parts supply, and field and service data.\nELM expects that the Urban Delivery vehicle will be the first electric delivery vehicle coming to market in the class 1 category (GVW of 6,000 lbs or less) in the U.S. It will also have 35% more carrying volume compared to similar ICE delivery vehicles, a critical part of the value proposition. It also anticipates that its price and greater carrying volume will allow it to take market share from the class 2 category of vehicles as well.\nIts crossover product portfolio strategy targets commercial delivery vehicles spanning from class 1 to class 3, which represents over 80% of the last mile market.\nELM anticipates $122 million in revenue in 2021, rapidly increasing to $3 billion in 2025. The price of FIII stock increased immediately following its announcement with Electric Last Mile, rising more than 40% to $14.50, but now it has dropped closer to the original deal price to $10.25 for a market cap of approximately $1.5 billion.\nGreenPower Motor Company (GP)\nGreenPower Motor Company Inc. is a Canadian battery-electric bus manufacturer with multiple models of high- and low-floor vehicles, including transit buses, school buses, and shuttles. GreenPower offers commercial vehicles for delivery, public transit, schools, vanpooling, micro-transit, shuttles, and is developing a capability of autonomous operation. It went public on August 28, 2020.\nIn 2014 GreenPower launched its first purpose-built, battery-electric bus, the EV350, 40-foot transit bus. GreenPower received its first order in 2017 for ten EV350s from the City of Porterville, California.\nGreenPower's electric buses are purpose-built and designed to be all-electric, allowing it to put the battery and propulsion system in optimized locations that provide weight and structural advantages. Its primary EV is the EV Star with more than 120 vehicles delivered. It comes in several variations:\n\nEV Star - Up to 19 passengers\nEV Star Plus - Up to 24 passengers\nEV Star ADA - Passenger and curbside lift for ADA\nEV Star Cargo - 5,000 pounds of load\nEV Star Cargo Plus - 570 cubic feet of cargo space.\n\nIts EV school bus seats up to 90 students and has a range of up to 150 miles.\nGreenPower had revenue of $13.5 million in 2020 It has about $21 million in cash. It's an interesting alternative since it is already shipping EVs, has revenue, and also has a lower market cap of less than $1 billion. Since it did a traditional IPO, it hasn't published longer-term financial forecasts.\nArrival (CIIC)\nArrival was founded in 2015 in London to make a variety of commercial electric vehicles. It has approximately 1,200 employees across 11 cities in 8 countries. In November 2020, Arrival and the SPAC CIIG entered into a business combination agreement with an implied valuation of $5.39 billion.\nArrival plans on releasing four commercial EVs over the next few years.\n\nQ4/2021: An electric bus for 8-125 passengers and a range of 240-400km\nQ3/2022: An electric delivery van with a payload of 975-2,000kg and a range of 150-340km\n2022: A larger electric van with a payload of 4,000 kg and a range of 190-400km\n2023: a small vehicle platform with a range of 100-300km.\n\nThis mix provides a nice diversified portfolio of EVs. Arrival claims to have received orders from UPS for 10,000 vans. It plans a unique flexible manufacturing approach using micro-factories with each projected to manufacture 10,000 vans per year. All of its vehicles use a modular skateboard electric platform.\nArrival ambitiously projects $14.1 billion in revenue in 2024. Half of that revenue is expected from delivery vans, 22% from buses, and the rest from the large van and its small vehicle platform. With CIIC's stock price at $24.80 per share, Arrival's current market cap is relatively high at approximately $15.0 billion. Justifying its market cap depends on its ability to release, sell, and produce its four commercial EVs.\nProterra (ACTC)\nProterra is a commercial electric vehicle company with over a decade of production experience. The Company has designed an end-to-end, flexible technology platform that claims to deliver higher performance and a low total cost of ownership to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end customers.\nProterra, Inc., was originally founded in Golden, Colorado, by Dale Hill in 2004. Later the company wanted to take the lead in creating zero-emission, U.S.-based transit buses. In 2010 it moved its manufacturing plant from Golden, Colorado to Greenville, South Carolina. In 2015, Proterra was awarded a $3 million grant from the California Energy Commission to fund the design, development, and construction of the company's battery-electric transit bus manufacturing line in the City of Industry, California. It moved its headquarters from Greenville, South Carolina, to Burlingame, California, in October 2015. Proterra raised more than $600 million in funding.\nIt is going public through the SPAC ArcLight (ACTC) with a pro forma valuation of $1.6 billion. Upon completion of the transaction, Proterra expects to have up to $825 million in cash to fund growth initiatives, including R&D and the expansion of its next-generation battery program.\nProterra has three complementary businesses:\n\nProterra Powered: Delivering battery systems and electrification solutions to commercial vehicle manufacturers\nProterra Transit:Providing an electric transit bus OEMs\nProterra Energy:Offering turnkey charging and energy management solutions.\n\nThe company's battery systems have been proven in more than 16 million service miles driven by its fleet of transit vehicles and validated through partnerships with commercial vehicle OEMs. Proterra has produced and delivered more than 300 megawatt-hours of battery systems, more than 550 heavy-duty electric transit buses, and installed 54 megawatts of charging systems.\nProterra expected $193 million of revenue in 2020, with an estimated $750 million in existing orders and backlog. It projects $2.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with about 1/3 coming from its Transit business, and 2/3 From Powered & Energy. At ACTC's current stock price of $17.85, Proterra has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nRivian\nRivian (see earlier description in consumer retail) will also compete in the commercial delivery market. It has been working with Amazon (a major investor) to build large electric delivery vans for Prime. Developed specifically for Amazon, a small fleet of Prime vans is on the road now, testing deliveries to customers and gathering feedback. In late fall, it could grow to a large fleet as Rivian ramps up the volume.\nThe EV range of 150 miles is tailored to Amazon's use cycle to optimize the size, weight, and cost of the commercial vehicle. Rivian has three sizes of batteries, but Amazon is starting with just one of them.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nSee the previous summary under consumer retail EV.\nMedium and Long-Haul Trucking EV Companies\nCompanies developing medium- and long-haul EV trucks face a more difficult challenge with battery range. These trucks haul much more weight than commercial delivery vehicles and because they are designed for long distances, they can't stop every 200-300 miles for recharging.\nFor this reason, many of these companies are using unique hybrid technologies for their trucks. The EV trucks in this category are primarily heavy-duty but also include some medium-duty trucks and specialty vehicles. A couple of the companies focus on retrofitting trucks to be electric.\nMedium-Duty Trucks\nThe medium-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 4, 5, and 6:\n\nClass 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.\nClass 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.\nClass 6: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 19,501-26,000 pounds or 8,846-11,793 kilograms.1\n\nHeavy-Duty Trucks\nThe heavy-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 7 and 8:\n\nClass 7: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 26,001 to 33,000 pounds or 11,794-14,969 kilograms.\nClass 8: This class of trucks has a GVWR of greater than 33,001 pounds or 14,969 kilograms and includes all tractor-trailers.\n\nThe Tesla Semi is a battery vehicle planned for a range of 300 or 500 miles and a speed of 60 MPH with 80,000 lbs of cargo. Tesla plans to start shipping the Semi later this year when it expects to have sufficient cell volume to meet its needs with the production of its 4680 battery pack.\nNikola(NASDAQ:NKLA)\nNikola has been a very controversial company. Founded in 2015, it originally had two different strategies. Its primary strategy is to lease fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) Class-8 heavy trucks and provide the refueling infrastructure to corporate customers. Its second strategy was to develop the Badger EV truck using GM technology.\nNikola originally merged with a SPAC to go public, at an enterprise value of approximately $3.3 billion. On June 6th, 2020, its market cap jumped to more than $30 billion, then later it dropped because of problems with its originally planned deal with GM.\nNikola originally expected a deal with General Motors that included the production of the Nikola Badger EV pickup truck. The proposed arrangement was that GM would take a $2 billion equity stake in Nikola and in return would engineer and produce the Badger. In November 2020, GM and Nikola scrapped the original arrangement. Now it appears that GM will supply Nikola with only its Hydrotec hydrogen fuel-cell technology to integrate into the EV manufacturer's commercial class 7 and class 8 zero-emission semi-trucks. So, the Badger is probably dead.\nNikola now sees semi-trucks as the company's \"core business\" and fuel cells as an increasingly important segment of the semi-truck market thanks to their efficiency in weight and consumption. It expects to begin testing by the end of 2021.\nIt has received pre-orders from Anheuser-Busch and a few other companies, but it doesn't expect deliveries until 2023. Hydrogen fueling stations are key to its strategy, both providing a source of revenue and necessary fueling infrastructure for the trucks to operate, but they also cost a lot. In its March 2020 investor deck, Nikola said a single station capable of fueling 210 trucks a day would cost $16.6 million. Its initial planned network of 700 stations would cost roughly $11.6 billion.\nNikola was also accused of misrepresentation, and its executive chairman and founder stepped down.\nAt the time of the SPAC merger, it projected an optimistic forecast of more than $3 billion in revenue by 2024, with a net income of $145 million. Most of that revenue was expected to come from its Badger truck, which is no longer in the plans. Yet its market cap is still almost $6 billion.\nHyliion (HYLN)\nHyliion, founded in 2015 in Austin, went public in October 2020 through the SPAC Tortoise Acquisition Corp. (SHLL). In March 2019, automotive parts manufacturer Dana Inc. made an equity investment into Hyliion, and together they are manufacturing and marketing Class 8 EVs to Dana's customers, including Volvo, Navistar, and Peterbilt.\nHyliion's strategy is unique, and a very different strategy from Nikola. Essentially it generates electricity onboard the truck using compressed natural gas (CNG). This should be a benefit for longer-range trucking. Hyliion's Hypertruck concept involves an all-electric drivetrain utilizing Dana's electric motor, inverter, and axle technologies. The truck's batteries are fueled by onboard tanks of CNG. With some 700 CNG stations already operating nationwide, it believes that there no need to build out expensive superchargers or hydrogen infrastructure.\nKuwait-based logistics company, Agility, has already placed an order for 1,000 Hypertrucks with initial deliveries targeted in 2022. Combined with a fully electric drivetrain and a natural gas-powered onboard generator to recharge the battery, the Hypertruck ERX will provide more than 1,000 miles of range.\nHyliion will eventually compete with Nikola (FCEV) and the Tesla battery-based Semi, but it plans to have a longer range and lower operating costs. Its HyperTruck ERX is expected to be available in 2021. It also has a hybrid-electric truck.\nThe combination with SHLL had an estimated market cap of about $1.5 billion, with approximately $530 million going to the company, including a $325 million fully committed PIPE. At approximately $13.50 per share, its current market cap is approximately $2.2 billion, significantly down from its peak. Hyliion projects $2 billion in revenue in 2024, which it claims is only about 2% of the addressable market.\nXL Fleet (XL)\nXL Fleet is a 10-year old company that went public through the SPAC Pivotal. XL is different because it provides fleet electrification modifications for ICE trucks across a wide range of vehicle classes (class 2-5) and types. It has over 200 of the largest commercial and municipal fleets as customers, with more than 3,200 XL systems deployed and over 130 million miles driven by customers to date. XL's customer base includes FedEx, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Verizon, the City of Boston, Seattle Fire Department, Yale University, and Harvard University.\nXL's business model is essentially retrofitting existing trucks to be hybrids and then later expanding into fully electric truck conversions. It claims to be creating a fully integrated platform for this. It remains to be seen if the retrofitting business will continue to grow or will it diminish when more trucks are designed and manufactured with EV capabilities.\nUnlike some other EV companies that have no revenue yet because they are still developing products, XL is more of a small company doing low-volume retrofits. It had $7.2 million in revenue in 2019, $21 million in 2020, and estimates $76 million in 2021, but it forecasts $1.3 billion in revenue in 2024 in its investor presentation. It plans to do this by expanding its product line from hybrid to plug-in hybrid to fully electric across a broader range of trucks. It claims to have a $220 million sales pipeline for the next 12 months.\nShort-seller, Muddy Waters, claimed after talking to former XL Fleet employees, that it believed the company significantly exaggerated its order backlog, that the return on investment for the company's products was likely negative, and that it would not be able to compete with big car makers on electrification. The company thoroughly refuted these claims.\nThe original enterprise valuation was approximately $1.4 billion at a $10 share price for the merger. Its price jumped by about 35% but has since gone back down to $12.40 for a market cap of about $1.8 billion. Although XL Fleet has revenue and other EV companies don't, this may not be an advantage. It appears to be a small company for many years that has gone public at a high valuation with grand plans. The risks are in its ability to make a jump from $76 million in 2021 to $1.3 billion in 2024, as well as the question about retrofitting being replaced by new EV trucks by then.\nXos (NGAC)\nXos Trucks specializes in the field of manufacturing fully electric commercial vehicles. It features a software platform that is designed to accommodate an extensive variety of medium-duty bodies, wheelbase, and range requirements up to 200 miles. It was founded in 2016 and headquartered in North Hollywood, California. It received $20 million of investment in 2020 and now is going public through a merger with the SPAC ExtGen Acquisition Corporation (NGAC) at an estimated proforma value of $1.965 billion.\nIts focus is on medium- and heavy-duty last mile and return-to-base segments (class 5/6, class 6/7, and class 7/8) commercial fleets and specialty vehicles. Some vehicles are currently in production and in regular on-road operations with key fleet customers, and it claimed 6,000 unit orders in backlog.\nIts MD-platform is for classes 5-6 for pickup and delivery. Its HD X-Platform is an adaptable chassis for highway, vocational, and severe work conditions. Its market is for customers with highly predictable routes that allow for batteries designed for a more limited range. A significantly larger frame and smaller battery pack allow for reduced density.\nXos has a bundled all-in-one offering that allows fleets to access all the tools and services they need to go electric with a single point of contact at a fixed monthly expense.\nXos had $3 million in revenue in 2020 and estimates $14 million in 2021. However, it forecasts $5.2 billion in revenue in 2025. At the current stock price of $10.30, its market cap is approximately $2 billion, about the same as its original SPAC transaction.\nLion Electric (NGA)\nLion Electric is a Canadian company founded by Marc Bédard in 2008. Its focus is to be a leader in designing, developing, and manufacturing purpose-built urban electric vehicles; vehicles that are specifically designed as delivery trucks, refuse trucks, bucket trucks, moving trucks, school buses, and shuttle buses. It has over 300 all-electric vehicles on the road today.\nIn November 2020, it announced that it was going public through the SPAC NGA. The transaction had an estimated pro forma enterprise value of $1.5 billion.\nIt plans on seven new truck models and one new school bus, for a total of 15 all-electric vehicles, representing a full line-up from class 5 to class 8 electric trucks and a full line-up of electric school buses. Its vehicles are produced at its existing manufacturing plant, which has the capacity for the production of up to 2,500 vehicles per year. It intends to open a new plant in the U.S. capable of delivering over 20,000 Lion trucks and buses per year by 2022.\nIts all-electric class 6 and class 8 commercial urban trucks combine power, comfort, and modern technology. Custom-built chassis and cabin designed specifically for an all-electric heavy-duty vehicle. The LionC is an all-electric Type C school bus manufactured in North America. The body and chassis were specifically designed to deliver optimal performance. The LionM is an all-electric midi/minibus that meets paratransit and public transportation requirements. Created and designed specifically for the paratransit market, the is spacious and offers unique features that provide enhanced security and accessibility to the end-users.\nLion Electric had $29 million in revenue in 2020 and expects $204 million in 2021. It forecasts revenue to jump to $3.6 billion a few years later in 2024. Its current market cap is approximately $3.6 billion based on its current stock price of $18.33.\nLightning eMotors (GIK)\nLightning eMotors, formerly Lightning Systems, was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Loveland, Colorado. It provides fleet electrification for familiar commercial vehicle platforms by retrofitting them with its electric powertrains. Lightning eMotors produces electric fleet medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including delivery trucks, shuttle buses, passenger vans, ambulances, bucket trucks, chassis-cab models, and city transit buses. It focuses on urban commercial zero-emission vehicles with a full range of class 3 through class 7 battery-electric and fuel-cell electric vehicles.\nLighting eMotors helps commercial fleets achieve their sustainability goals by offering zero-emission battery-electric vans, trucks, and buses based on familiar, proven vehicles from manufacturers such as Ford and GM. It works with customers, to help them identify their unique commercial electric vehicle, charging, and grant support needs.\nThe Lightning products include integrated all-electric powertrains for the Ford Transit 350HD passenger and cargo vans, Ford E-450 shuttle bus and cutaway models, Ford F-59 step/food van, Ford F-550 cargo trucks and buses, Chevrolet 6500XD Low Cab Forward model, and 30-foot, 35-foot, and 40-foot transit buses.\nLightning has 120 vehicles on the road, and 1,500 vehicles already on order from customers. In addition to making vehicles and powertrains, Lightning also provides a full suite of charging solutions for customers.\nThe deal with GIK has an enterprise value of $650 million, although there is also an Earnout of 20.0% of total pro forma shares outstanding to Lightning eMotors shareholders if the stock crosses certain price thresholds.\nAt the current price, of $11.73, GIK has a market cap of approximately $1 billion, a little more than the original transaction valuation. Similar to XL Fleet, Lightning has the risk that retrofitting may only be an interim business opportunity until more EV trucks are produced.\nPublic Chinese EV Companies\nChina will be the biggest EV market opportunity, and EV start-ups may do better there because there isn't as much entrenched competition from domestic auto companies. China is already the largest EV market in the world, with almost a million EVs sold in 2019. Its EV market represents almost half of the global EV sales volume and is much larger than the U.S. market.\nThe Chinese government has ambitions to become a global leader in new energy vehicles. Soon after the coronavirus outbreak subsided within the country, Chinese authorities announced new policies to support the auto and electric vehicle industries.\nThese Chinese companies are traded through American depository shares (ADS) that contain certain risks. There are financial reporting and transparency risks with these companies, and on top of that, the newer companies are being classified as \"emerging growth\" companies that are already exempt from certain transparency requirements set out in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Like the previous EV stock, these stocks have also been very volatile.\nIn addition to legacy auto manufacturers like BYD, there are also three Chinese EV companies that are publicly traded through American depositary shares.\nBYD Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:BYDDY)\nBYD, which means build your dreams, is the automotive subsidiary of the Chinese multinational BYD Co Ltd. It was founded in January 2003, following BYD Company's acquisition of Tsinchuan Automobile Company. The company produces automobiles, buses, electric bicycles, forklifts, rechargeable batteries, and trucks. The current model range of automobiles includes electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and petrol-engined vehicles. Thirteen years ago, on the advice of his famously skeptical lieutenant, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett made a $232 million investment in BYD, a relatively unknown Chinese car company.\nBy parlaying BYD's rechargeable battery technology into a fast-growing carmaking operation, it gained a foothold in the fledgling electric vehicle market, building longer-lasting batteries and cheaper vehicles than American and Japanese manufacturers were managing to do at the time. In BYD, Buffett and Munger believed they had found a company with a shot at one day becoming the largest player in a global automobile market that was inevitably going electric.\nBYD's start to 2021 was strong with 19,871 plug-in electric cars sold in January in China, including hybrid plug-ins. That was a big increase over 2020 but not as much as 2019.\nLI Auto (LI)\nLixiang, formerly known as Chehejia (\"Car and Home\"), was founded in 2015 and went public in the U.S. on July 30th, 2020. It is a Beijing-based electric-vehicle startup with vertically integrated manufacturing. It designs, researches, manufactures, sells, and offers services featuring a few models of electric vehicles.\nThe company's SUVs are hybrids of a sort. They use electric motors (one on the front axle and one on the rear), but those motors are powered by a combination of a 40.5kWh battery packanda 1.2-liter turbocharged engine paired to a 45-liter fuel tank and a 100kW electric generator, which generates power for the battery pack in real-time. The idea is that the car can be driven for about 100 miles on battery power alone, but it has a total range of nearly 500 miles when leveraging the combustion engine generator.\nThe Company's primary product is an SUV under its brand Li ONE. It also sells peripheral products and provides related services, such as charging stalls, vehicle internet connection services, and extended lifetime warranties. Li Auto is looking to sell a variety of SUVs built on its hybrid technology that range from around $21,000 to about $70,000. The company started shipping its first model in late 2019. It's a midsize SUV is well-appointed and has lots of touchscreens and technology. A full-size premium version is planned for release in 2022.\nDeliveries of Li ONEs were 14,464 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a 67.0% quarter-over-quarter increase and setting a new quarterly record. Deliveries for the full year 2020 reached 32,624 vehicles. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $635 million.\nLI auto went public on July 30th, 2020, raising $1.1 billion at an initial price of $15.50 per share but quickly reached almost $24. It is currently valued at approximately $37 billion at a price of approximately $25.72 per share.\nXPeng (XPEV)\nXiaopeng (XPeng) Motors is a Chinese electric vehicle and technology company that designs and manufactures smart cars. It was founded in 2015 and went public on August 27, 2020, using American depository shares, raising about $1 billion. To date, it has raised about $2.6 billion.\nXPeng aims its EVs at technology-savvy middle-class Chinese consumers, with prices ranging from $22,000 to $45,000 after government subsidies. In some ways, it is a Tesla knock-off at a much lower price. XPeng started production of the G3 in November 2018, and as of July 31, 2020, delivered 18,741. It started production of the P7 and began delivery in May 2020, and as of July 31, 2020, it had delivered 1,966 EVs. The P7 has a range of more than 400 miles. It plans to launch a third Smart EV, a sedan, in 2021. The G3 was among the top-three best-selling electric SUVs in China in 2019.\nXPeng is interesting because it has a platform strategy and is moving aggressively into autonomous driving. It uses a platform strategy to expand product offerings by launching one Smart EV model each year to broaden the addressable market. It builds new models on two highly flexible Smart EV platforms, called David and Edward, respectively. The David platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,600 millimeters to 2,800 millimeters, and the Edward platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,800 millimeters to 3,100 millimeters. It also adopted a platform approach for software systems.\nXPeng claims to be developing an autonomous driving capability for its EVs. The P7 is the first production vehicle to feature the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Xavier system-on-a-chip (SoC) autonomous driving platform. The company's Smart Electric Platform Architecture (SEPA) runs on 2 chips - NVIDIA for the XPILOT and Qualcomm's Snapdragon™ 820A for intelligent services and infotainment, including cameras inside and outside, radars, HD-map, and ultrasonic sensors. Like Tesla, it claims it can create sufficiently-autonomous driving without lidar.\nTo enhance brand recognition and allow more people to experience its Smart EVs, it deployed a small number of Smart EVs in a ride-hailing service in Guangzhou on a trial basis, but it has no current plan to scale up a ride-hailing service.\nXpeng sees first-quarter 2021 deliveries rising 450% year-over-year to 12,500 vehicles. Revenues are expected to increase 533% from a year ago. The company didn't provide bottom-line estimates for the quarter, but will likely post another net loss as it ramps up manufacturing, invests in R&D, and builds out a new manufacturing plant set to open in 2022.\nXpeng reported selling 12,964 vehicles in Q4 2020, up 303% from a year ago. It delivered a total of 27,041 vehicles in 2020, up 112%. It makes the P7 sedan, a rival to the made-in-China Tesla Model 3, and the small G3 SUV.\nThe stock opened on August 27, 2020 at a price of $15 and a valuation of $11 billion, but its stock jumped more than 40% shortly after. Its current valuation is about $35 billion at a stock price of approximately $36.13 per share. It had about $300 million in revenue in 2019 with a loss of about $500 million.\nNio (NIO)\nUnlike previous companies, Nio has been a public company for some time. It originally went public in the U.S. back in September of 2018, selling IPO shares at $6.26 and raising $1 billion.\nNio's IPO was far from smooth. After going public at $6.26 per share, it traded down to nearly $1. Then in the middle of the coronavirus outbreak, Nio received a much-needed investment of $1 billion from investors, including state-backed entities.\nNio designs, jointly manufactures, and sells smart and connected premium electric vehicles, attempting to develop next-generation technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving, and artificial intelligence. Joint manufacturing means that it uses a state-owned contract manufacturer to build its cars.\nNio plans to provide customers with comprehensive, convenient, and innovative charging solutions and other user-centric services. It began deliveries of the ES8, a 7-seater high-performance premium electric SUV in China in June 2018, and its variant, the six-seater ES8, in March 2019. Nio officially launched the ES6, a 5-seater high-performance premium electric SUV, in December 2018 and began deliveries in June 2019. It officially launched the EC6, a 5-seater smart premium electric Coupe SUV, in December 2019 with deliveries in 2020.\nNio sold 17,353 EVs in Q4/2020 and 43,728 for the year. It warned a shortage in chips and batteries will force a production slowdown to 7,500 a month in Q2 from 10,000 vehicles a month in February.\nNio currently trades at more than $43 per share, including a big jump recently, for a valuation of approximately $48 billion. It had revenue of $2.3 billion in 2019 for a loss of $3.8 billion.\nSummary\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this should provide exciting new investment opportunities. However, the investment terrain is complex. There are dozens of new start-ups where the public can now invest that were previously exclusively venture capital investment opportunities. Many of these are following different roads to success. There are legacy auto manufacturers that could prosper or get destroyed in this transition. There are some exciting new EV company opportunities in China. And then there is Tesla.\nThis EV roadmap is intended to help investors explore different roads to investment by explaining the basic strategies for these EV companies. These roads can have different opportunities and risks, and the roadmap helps to frame these. Above all, valuation is an overriding risk that is highlighted throughout this article.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":353153621,"gmtCreate":1616472876563,"gmtModify":1704794537772,"author":{"id":"3569231041389085","authorId":"3569231041389085","name":"股勇者","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3e504cb82a63c1bce1ad9b0dc5eacf75","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f84d87792f02cf78e80ee34979fd31e5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3569231041389085","authorIdStr":"3569231041389085"},"htmlText":"Is there a web-based for this article? Link pls. Its so hard to see those graphs on the mobile phone.","listText":"Is there a web-based for this article? Link pls. Its so hard to see those graphs on the mobile phone.","text":"Is there a web-based for this article? Link pls. Its so hard to see those graphs on the mobile phone.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353153621","repostId":1196402560,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196402560","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616134696,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196402560?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-19 14:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"New Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196402560","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, an","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>It's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.</li>\n <li>Last October, I wrote a popular article providing a roadmap for investing in electric vehicles, but since then, so much has changed: new entrants, new strategies, fluctuating valuations, etc.</li>\n <li>So, I updated and greatly expanded the previous EV investment roadmap.</li>\n <li>This update includes a deeper look at valuations for 23 EV companies with revenue projections, when available.</li>\n <li>It also classifies these EV companies into their primary market categories and summarizes their different strategies.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb96acc615cba9c7842860658c019ab1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\">Photo by Sven Loeffler/iStock via Getty Images\nMy article&nbsp;Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap&nbsp;published five months ago, was popular, and some followers have requested an update. Many new EV companies entered the market, most of them through SPACs. Valuations fluctuated wildly, and there has been a great deal of publicity around these companies.\nThis new updated EV investment roadmap is greatly expanded. In addition to updating the strategies and progress of companies previously discussed, I expanded the number of companies covered. This article also groups EV companies into their primary markets, enabling better comparisons and evaluation of market opportunities. In addition, it includes a comparative valuation chart showing every company's market cap with a comparison to projected revenue, where possible. This takes advantage (good or bad) of looking at the long-term revenue forecasts provided in SPAC mergers that public companies can't make.\nIn addition to the EV manufacturers discussed here, there are also EV investment opportunities in charging station companies, battery manufacturers, and battery materials companies. These were covered in the original roadmap and may also be updated in a later article.\nApproximately 2 million EVs were sold in 2019, and although the number declined along with all auto sales in 2020, it is forecasted to increase in 2021 and reach 8-10 million by 2025. Some forecast that EV sales will be greater than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2030, or even earlier. The automobile market appears to be moving toward a historical transformation, and exceptional investment gains can be made by anticipating new emerging industries and investing in the eventual winners of those new industries. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)are obvious examples. Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to create a new emerging industry.\nThere are also significant risks. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to be released in the next three years, which will drive rapid growth in EV sales. However, the expected sales from these new models, as well as the increasing expectations from Tesla, most likely exceed the total projected market. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the companies covered here won't exist five years from now. It reminds me of the internet bubble of the late 1990s when scores of internet-based companies went public with little or no revenue. Almost all of these failed within three years -- however, a couple, including Amazon, went on to enormous success.\nEVs provide a major new investment opportunity with high risks. To succeed, you need to have a clear EV investment roadmap.\nSo, how can you invest in this new emerging market? The EV landscape is complex and investment opportunities are varied. While Tesla is the unquestioned leader in EVs, some consider it overvalued and unlikely to show exceptional returns to new investors. The current U.S. legacy automakers are committed to introducing many new EVs in the next few years, and they have some entrenched advantages with volume manufacturing capabilities, a dealer infrastructure, and loyal customers. There are exciting new EV start-ups in the U.S. that have come public this year, mostly through Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), and there are several interesting publicly traded Chinese EV manufacturers.\nThis new roadmap for EV investment classifies companies into three primary markets segments:\n<ul>\n <li>TheConsumer Retailsegment includes EVs sold to consumers individually, such as SUVs, pickup trucks, sedans, etc.</li>\n <li>TheCommercial Deliverysegment includes local delivery EV vans and trucks sold to fleets.</li>\n <li>TheMedium- and Long-Haul Truckingsegment includes heavier Class 4 - Class 8 trucks, as well as special industrial vehicles.</li>\n</ul>\nIn addition, it categorizesLegacy ManufacturersandChinese EV Companies. This enables investors to evaluate investment opportunities by considering unique opportunities within each market segment.\nThere is an enormous amount of investment optimism for EVs, and retail investors have been aggressively buying into EV stocks with seemingly no regard for valuation. Then there is the additional challenge of valuing companies with no revenue, especially those coming public through SPACs. So, valuation is an important investment consideration.\nSo let's start by looking at an overview of comparative EV valuations.\nEV Investment Valuation Overview\nThe following chart summarizes valuations for 23 EV companies, including several legacy companies. For SPACs, market cap estimates are computed using the pro forma number of shares at closing, otherwise using the valuation of the SPAC prior to closing drastically underestimates the valuation, which may be misleading to novice investors. Price/Sales ratios (market cap divided by revenue) are used to compare valuations. As a benchmark, current P/S ratios vary. For example, auto and truck companies have a ratio of 2.7X. Software companies have the highest ratios of over 10X.\nIn the chart, companies that currently have revenue show current P/S ratios. Where projections are available, projected P/S ratios are computed. A note of caution, however. Many of the EV companies came public through SPACs and published their projections (which public companies cannot do), and many of these are likely to prove unrealistic.\nAll of the longer-term revenue projections come from the company (C) forecasts with a SPAC. Some of these may turn out to be accurate, not many are most likely unrealistic. Some, like Lucid, Faraday, and Arrival forecast hitting more than $10 billion in revenue in a few years, when it took Tesla more than 10. Things are different now and they might achieve these, but they could also find that it will take longer to complete development, ramp up production, and create enough customer demand. Many companies may also find that there will be significant capital requirements to achieve this type of growth, and shareholders will be diluted.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc360dfa7de01516b7f68d5962cf3017\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"883\">\nTesla, the \"gold standard\" in EVs, has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, which many people believe is overvalued. Its market cap is approximately 20X 2020 revenue and 10X estimated 2022 revenue.\nTesla (TSLA)\nIn the U.S., and to a lesser extent in China, Tesla is the dominant EV provider. It has approximately 60% of the U.S. EV market and about 20% of the market in China. I own a Tesla and love it, but an investment in Tesla stock requires getting comfortable with its valuation. Tesla has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, although declining lately, which some consider still overvalued while others see upside potential.\nThe investment opportunity with Tesla is based on the expectation that it will continue to dominate the EV market, or at least maintain significant market share, despite much greater competition from the expected introduction of hundreds of new EV models in the next few years.\nThere is a great deal already published about Tesla, so I'll move on.\nLegacy Automakers\nSome people think that the legacy automakers will simply fade away. Historically, that was the case in some other industries, but it is not going to happen to most automakers. They are not standing still waiting to become obsolete. Most have aggressive strategies to replace ICE vehicles with EVs. GM plans to invest $27 billion and build and launch as many as 30 new EV models by 2025. Ford plans to invest $29 billion in EVs by 2025 and launch as many as 16 EVs in the next two years. Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY)has also committed billions to develop new EVs.\nThe competitive advantage that legacy automakers have in selling their new EVs is their dealer network. Will new EV customers prefer to continue going to their regular auto dealer to buy their new EV?\nAlmost all legacy automakers worldwide are developing and launching EVs including Volkswagen, Peugeot, Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi, Hyundai/Kia. Let's look a little more closely at GM and Ford as the leaders in the U.S.\nGeneral Motors (GM)\nGM has committed to introducing 20 new electric vehicles by 2023, including EVs across Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC, and Buick. It recently announced that it has already sold out the first-year production of its Hummer electric pickup. By mid-decade, it expects to sell a million EVs per year in its two largest markets: North America and China. As a reference point, Tesla reported deliveries of 367,500 vehicles globally in 2019.\nGM has a solid platform strategy for its EVs. It plans on building its EVs using five interchangeable drive units and three different motors from its Ultium Drive System platform. Ultium energy options range from 50 to 200 kWh, which could enable an estimated range of up to 400 miles. Most of its EVs will have 400-volt battery packs and up to 200 kW fast-charging capability while the truck platform will have 800-volt battery packs and 350 kW fast-charging capabilities.\nThe key building blocks of the Ultium battery system are large-scale, high-energy cells. Engineered in partnership with LG Energy Solutions, they use both advanced chemistry and a smart cell design that's optimized for a broad portfolio of EVs. GM engineers and scientists are actively researching and testing new elements in battery chemistry to lower costs and improve charge times. Ultium can contain either vertically- or horizontally-stacked cells to integrate into vehicle design: vertically for trucks, SUVs, and crossovers, or horizontally for cars and performance vehicles. As new chemistry is developed and becomes available, the battery management system could digitally update the modules.\nGM also has other EV opportunities with its BrightDrop commercial EV service and its Cruise subsidiary. BrightDrop will not just sell delivery EVs, it will provide an entire service platform for commercial delivery customers. Its set of electric delivery vehicles starts with the EV600 and includes the BrightDrop EP1, a pod-like electric pallet. SeeGeneral Motors' Aggressive EV/AV Strategies May Payoff Big.\nWith its highest stock price of $61.65, GM's current market cap is approximately $89 billion, increasing primarily because of its progress with EVs. This approximately 3X valuation in 2018, but still only 13% of Tesla.\nFord (F)\nFord is also investing heavily in EVs. It just introduced the Mustang Mach-E, a battery-powered crossover with sports car styling, and plans to introduce an all-electric version of its best-selling F-150 pickup later this year. Also, planned is an electric edition of the full-size Transit van, which has been popular in the commercial delivery market. Ford has confirmed plans to build a luxury Lincoln crossover on a battery-powered platform provided by Rivian. The automaker also plans to introduce two new midsize electric crossovers, one each for the Ford and Lincoln brands by 2023.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd8523e15bccc57790940d4218f7b94e\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"1080\">Mustang Mach-E. Source: Ford\nFord's market cap is approximately $51 billion, twice its previous market cap, and also increasing.\nConsumer Retail EV Companies\nThe consumer retail market has some unique characteristics for new EV companies. Sales are made individually, not in fleets. This diversifies the risk upon launch because only a sufficient number of customers need to be attracted to the new EV. A wave of popularity can provide terrific momentum.\nHowever, the lack of a dealer network can be an impediment. Selling EVs directly to consumers instead of through dealers is prohibited in most states. By law, auto manufacturers can't compete with franchised dealers. These are laws that go back many decades to protect dealers. This can be a major impediment for new companies without established independent dealer franchises. So, new AV companies. like Tesla, need to sell their vehicles online. Tesla has successfully done this, but it took a lot of work and time. Lack of a dealer network also creates impediments in service.\nIn addition, over the next 4-5 years, autonomous capabilities will be increasingly important to luxury vehicles. This may prove to be a challenge to start-up EV companies because they can't afford to develop this technology.\nLet's look closer at the alternative consumer retail EV investments.\nLucid Motors (CCIV)\nLucid was founded in 2007 under the name Atieva and originally focused on building electric vehicle batteries and powertrains for other vehicle manufacturers. The company rebranded itself as Lucid Motors in October 2016 and shifted its strategy to develop an all-electric, high-performance, luxury vehicle. Shortly after that, it encountered financial difficulties and struggled to get short-term funding. In 2018 it raised more than $1 billion in investment, primarily from Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund, and gave up a majority of the company.\nLucid Motors reached an agreement to become a publicly-traded company through a merger with the SPAC Churchill Capital IV Corp., in one of the largest deals SPAC EV deals. The combined company, in which Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund will continue to be the largest shareholder, had a transaction equity value of $11.75 billion (for $10/share). At the same time, it closed a PIPE investment priced at $15 a share, giving it an implied pro forma equity value of $24 billion. Rumors about this deal circulated before the transaction was formally announced, making it one of the most anticipated SPAC deals. The hype and speculation drove up the stock price of Churchill Capital IV Corp. from its opening price of $10 a share to almost $60. I believe that some of this may have been driven by novice SPAC investors who didn't realize that the valuation of CCIV didn't include the eventual valuation of Lucid. The share price dropped more than 30% after the details of the deal were announced. It's also likely that Lucid renegotiated the terms of the merger based on the price jump.\nThe company's first product is the Lucid Air, a well-equipped luxury electric vehicle that features 406 miles of projected range and 480 horsepower with a starting price of $77,400, or $69,900 after the U.S. Federal Tax Credit of $7,500. This new Lucid Air model is positioned as a high-performance, ultra-efficient luxury EV sedan in a line of future vehicles that are expected to include Lucid Air Touring, Grand Touring, and Dream Edition versions.\nThe company plans to begin production and deliveries of the Lucid Air in North America in the second half of 2021. Previously the company aimed to begin deliveries earlier in 2021. It intends to sell the car in Europe in 2022, followed by China in 2023. Lucid vehicles will be produced at its new factory in Casa Grande, Arizona. The company plans to expand the factory in phases in the coming years to have the capacity to produce 365,000 units per year at scale. The initial phase of the $700 million factory construction was completed late last year and will have the capacity to produce 30,000 vehicles a year.\nLucid also apparently has a commitment to build an assembly plant in Saudi Arabia, which was rumored to be a condition of the $1 billion investment from the Saudi public fund. The Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund also provided $600 million in bridge financing and invested in the SPAC deal as well. So, while this assembly plant may be expensive and may not be critical, it will most likely need to happen.\nLucid has ambitious plans to achieve $14 billion in revenue in 2025, and its current stock price at $29.17, which gives it a market cap of more than $46 billion, may already reflect those ambitions. Its market cap is roughly the same as Ford.\nFisker (FSR)\nFisker, which had its origins with Fisker Automotive, is an interesting story that ended in bankruptcy. Henrik Fisker originally co-founded Fisker Automotive in 2007. He was responsible for designing many premium cars such as the Aston Martin. Subsequently, Fisker Automotive had to deal with a Tesla lawsuit against Fisker Automotive alleging it stole Tesla's technology, a controversial $528.7 million conditional loan from the Department of Energy, a recall of its battery produced by A123, and the loss of several hundred vehicles in hurricane Sandy. Henrik Fisker resigned in March 2013 because of disagreements over business strategy and in November 2013, Fisker filed its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case.\nHowever, Henrik Fisker retained the Fisker brand and trademarks, and in 2016 he started another electric vehicle company named Fisker Inc. with the Fisker brand and trademarks. In 2019, Fisker shifted from developing a sports car with a solid-state battery to the Ocean SUV featuring a lithium-ion battery, which it later abandoned for a solid-state battery.\nFisker is positioning itself in a unique segment for those who want the most environmentally friendly EV. While this may be an early growth segment for EVs, it's difficult to estimate its eventual competitive advantage and the size of this environmentally-friendly market segment.\nThe Ocean is a crossover made of recycled metal and plastic with an expected base price of $37,499, and an expected lease of less than $400 a month. Fisker's plan is essentially a lease-only business model that lets customers keep a vehicle for years or return it at any time. It aims to source motors, batteries, and other components from technical partnerships with automakers and will outsource production from existing auto plants. Fisker is currently taking reservations at $250 for the Ocean. It also announced an agreement with Foxconn to jointly develop a vehicle pioneering a new market segment to be sold globally under the Fisker brand commencing in Q4 2023. at the end of 2022. Production will start at Magna Steyr's manufacturing facilities in Europe. At the end of February 2021, it had 12,467 cancellable reservations.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/924a617c90fc3276d7bdab8c64ebfdcf\" tg-width=\"744\" tg-height=\"389\">Fisker Ocean. Source: Fisker\nFisker went public using a SPAC (Spartan Energy). The original combination with SPAQ in October 2020 was valued at $2.9 billion with a cash investment of approximately $1 billion. The stock currently trades at approximately $21 per share, after reaching a high of $28.50, from the original price of $10, which is a market cap of $4.6 billion. Fisker projects $3.3 billion in revenue in 2023. It had almost $1 billion in cash at the end of 2020 and expected to use almost half of this in 2021: $250 million on operating expenses and $250 million in capital investments. If the Ocean is delayed into 2023, Fisker risks missing its revenue objective and will potentially need additional cash to complete development and launch.\nFaraday Future (PSAC)\nFaraday Future was originally established in May 2014 by Chinese businessman Jia Yueting. It is headquartered in Los Angeles and has offices in Silicon Valley, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu. Faraday Future also had a turbulent history. In 2016, it struggled financially, and in 2017 some key executives departed over a dispute about financial issues. They later founded Canoo.\nIn December 2018 the company announced layoffs due to a cash crunch and financial troubles. The company's founder Jia Yueting filed for personal bankruptcy in the United States' federal court in Delaware on October 14, 2019. Following Jia's personal bankruptcy, he decided to step down from his role as CEO of Faraday Future in order to assume a new position as the Chief Product and User Officer. He was replaced as CEO by Carsten Breitfeld, the former CEO at rival electric vehicle startup Byton.\nSomehow, Faraday was able to raise $2.3 billion in private funding over 5 rounds from a variety of investors. In early 2018, it received $1.5 billion in funding from an undisclosed investor from Hong Kong.\nFaraday's flagship product offering will be the FF 91, featuring 1,050 HP, 0-60 mph in less than 2.4 seconds, zero gravity seats with the largest 60-degree reclining angles, and a user experience designed to create a mobile, connected, and luxurious living space. The FF 91 is targeted to launch in 2022.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e38bfb3211c72bb73bc26f2ebe296fe\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"854\">FF 91. Source: Faraday Future\nIts strategic partners include one of China's top three OEMs and a critical Chinese city, which the company believes will help establish its presence in the Chinese vehicle market.\nFaraday Future plans several cars based on its Variable Platform Architecture. FF 91 is the first production vehicle and flagship model. Pricing will range between $120,000 and upwards of $200,000, which places it against formidable opponents. Faraday Future is already looking forward to expanding its range with a pair of smaller models named FF 81 and FF 71. The FF 81 is planned to be priced at $75,000 to 95,000 with a 2023 release. The FF 71 is planned to be priced at $45,000 to $65,000 with a planned release of 2024.\nThe Primary Manufacturing Facility for FF 91 is in Hanford, CA with contract manufacturing for future models in Gunsan, South Korea.\nFaraday Future is planning high-Level automation with a Level-3 capable system using a redundant safety architecture based on NVIDIA Xavier System-on-a-chip. It will be capable of highway auto-drive and hardware ready for advanced auto-drive. It is targeting full autonomous valet parking &amp; summon in any parking lot or structure. Eventually, it expects full auto-drive, including full 360˚ sensor coverage for advanced auto-drive &amp; auto-park features.\nIn January 2021, Faraday Future announced that the company would go public through a reverse merger with the special purpose acquisition company Property Solutions Acquisition Corp. (PSAC). The combined company will be valued at $3.4 billion. Faraday Future is expected to set up contract manufacturing operations in China through their partnership with Geely. Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn is also expected to serve as an additional strategic partner.\nFaraday Future projects $10.5 billion in revenue in 2024 and $21.5 billion in 2025. Revenue is expected to start in 2022 with the delivery of 2,400 vehicles for $504 million. Most likely these projections could prove to be optimistic. At a current stock price of approximately $12.80, it has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nLordstown Motors (RIDE)\nLordstown Motors based in Lordstown, Ohio, was originally founded in 2018 by Steve Burns, the former CEO of Workhorse Group. The company licensed technology from Workhorse in return for royalties and a 10% ownership. Lordstown is named after the famous GM Lordstown manufacturing plant, which it acquired in November 2019 in an unusual transaction. GM announced that it was closing the plant and was under a great deal of pressure for that decision. So, GM \"sold\" the plant to a company that was renamed Lordstown for an estimated $20 million that it loaned to the acquiring company. Subsequently, the sale was redefined to be part of a $75 million investment by GM, of which $50 million was an in-kind exchange for the plant.\nLordstown went public through the SPAC DiamondPeak Holdings Corp. in 2020. It currently has more than 400 employees.\nIts first product is the Lordstown Endurance, a full-sized EV pickup truck. Lordstown is positioning Endurance for the pickup fleet market segment. The expected price is $52,000+, and it claimed to have more than 100,000 pre-orders by January 2021. However, a recent research article published by a short seller claimed \"Our research has revealed that Lordstown's order book consists of fake or entirely non-binding orders, from customers that generally do not even have fleets of vehicles.\" Lordstown is disputing that article.\nIt believes the fleet pickup market segment is underserved with no current EV-focused competition. It estimates that the full-sized pick-up truck fleet market is 1.2 million vehicles per year in the U.S., but it's more fragmented than other truck fleets. Pickup \"fleets\" tend to be much smaller and local, so there may not be much of a market distinction for a small company buying several EV pickups from a traditional auto dealer. About half of the total U.S. pickup market is classified as fleet sales, meaning more than one.\nEven though Lordstown is targeting the commercial fleet market, it is a similar product to the Ford EV F-150. So I classify it in the consumer EV category. It is a class 2 vehicle. Lordstown also may enter the SUV market in the longer-term.\nThe Endurance will compete against future models from Rivian and Tesla, as well as Ford and GM in ICE pick-ups and their upcoming EV pick-ups. Ford plans on selling its EV F-150 in mid-2022. Initial production of the Endurance is expected in the second half of 2021, so it may have a short market advantage. Nevertheless, it forecasts selling 65,000 vehicles in 2023 and 107,000 in 2024. These estimates could be a large percentage of the EV pick-up market in those years.\nAt the SPAC merger, the implied valuation for Lordstown was $1.6 billion, including a $500 million PIPE and the $75 million by GM. Lordstown's financial projections appear to be aggressive. It projects to start shipping the Endurance in late 2021 with projected revenue in 2022 of $1.7 billion, increasing to $5.8 billion in 2024. Its stock price at approximately $13.60 values the company at a market cap of approximately $2.2 billion. The value of the company depends on the likelihood of achieving its projections.\nA fleet sales strategy makes sense for Lordstown since it would be too expensive to build a retail sales and service capability. However, it's not clear that this will become a distinct competitive advantage. Some small fleets may still prefer to buy their EV pickups from established local dealers with service capabilities.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nCanoo started as Evelozcity in 2017 and rebranded as Canoo in the spring of 2019. Canoo is a Los Angeles-based company that develops electric vehicles. It has over 350 employees. Canoo has designed a modular electric platform purpose-built to deliver maximum vehicle interior space, which is adaptable to support a wide range of vehicle applications for consumers and businesses. Canoo expects to launch its first consumer model in 2022, simply named the Canoo that will be available by subscription, followed shortly after by a multi-purpose delivery vehicle and a sports vehicle, each built off of the same underlying platform. Canoo went public using a SPAC (Hennessy Capital Acquisition) and now trades as GOEV.\nCanoo's all-electric skateboard-like platform is designed to support both consumer retail and commercial vehicle configurations. The EV leverages Canoo's flat skateboard architecture for a high level of usable interior space. Its commercial vehicle program, expected in 2023, addresses a projected $50B+ last-mile delivery market with an EV platform that maximizes cargo volume.\nHyundai Motor Group said it would jointly develop an electric vehicle platform with the company.\nCanoo's platform strategy is interesting. It could be used as an EV platform for custom fleets of delivery vehicles. It has no AV development, but it claims to be \"AV Ready\" which could be useful for AV companies wanting to build custom AV delivery fleets.\nIts all-electric multi-purpose delivery vehicle is expected to be priced starting at approximately $33,000. It is based on Canoo's proprietary electric platform and will be offered in two initial size variants, with others to follow. Limited availability will begin in 2022, with scaled production and launch planned for 2023. Customers can pre-order the multi-purpose delivery vehicle for a refundable deposit of $100 per vehicle\nIt plans to offer two multi-purpose delivery vehicles: the MPDV1 and the larger MPDV2. The first has a 200-foot cargo volume and a range of 130-200 miles. It offers more capacity than today's ICE delivery vehicles at an affordable price with urban mobility enabled by a space-efficient footprint. The vehicle is also designed to fit within many height-restricted areas like parking garages.\nThe MPDV2 has a cargo volume of 450 feet and a range of 90-190 miles. Its roof and step-in height enable individuals to easily walk-in the vehicle and accommodate a standing position while inside.\nThe original SPAC transaction provided approximately $600 million, with a pro forma equity value of approximately $2.4 billion. Like other SPAC mergers, its stock price has fluctuated. It currently trades at about $15.90 per share for a market cap of approximately $3.7 billion. Canoo projects $2.0 billion in revenue in 2025 from about $500 million in engineering services, $1.2 billion from its consumer vehicle subscriptions, and the remainder from its commercial program. Canoo expects revenue of more than $300 million in 2022 after the launch of its lifestyle consumer vehicle.\nSince its first products are aimed at consumers, as is most of its forecasted 2025 revenue, I categorize it primarily as a consumer EV company. However, I think the design of that Canoo vehicle may not attract enough customers. More importantly, its subscription service way of selling its EV to consumers is risky. I think it has more potential in the commercial market, however, a dual strategy (consumer and commercial) is challenging. I like its skateboard platform design and that could prove to be a competitive advantage.\nRivian\nAlthough not yet public, I include Rivian because it has plans for an IPO as soon as Sept 2021, although it could slip into 2022. There are rumors that the company is targeting a market valuation of approximately $50B. Rivian has already raised more than $8 billion to date from Amazon, Ford, T. Rowe Price, and others.\nRivian has developed and vertically integrated a connected electric platform that can be flexibly applied to a range of applications, including the company's adventure products, as well as B2B products such as the Amazon last-mile delivery vans. The company's initial products, the R1T and R1S, provide a combination of performance, off-road capability, and utility. These vehicles will be produced at Rivian's manufacturing plant in Normal, Ill., with customer deliveries expected to begin in summer 2021. The launch of the R1S three-row electric SUV will follow in August.\nAdditional lower-priced models are being planned. The expected R2 series would include at least two smaller electric vehicles to coincide with the smaller platform, then another platform for R3.\nCommercial Delivery EV Companies\nEV truck companies differ based on the type of truck they are developing. The technology and markets are very different, so I separate them into two categories. The first category includes commercial delivery vehicles.\nCompanies making EV delivery vehicles have some major advantages that could make them good investments. First, delivery vehicles typically travel less than 250 miles during a day, so they can be conveniently recharged overnight. Secondly, they are typically sold in large quantities to fleets. This means that building a retail sales infrastructure is not necessary. It only requires a small salesforce. In addition, maintenance can also be provided at the fleet's operational center, so not as many service centers are required.\nThe disadvantage in this market is that there are a relatively small number of customers that buy in large volumes, so if the EV manufacturer can't get enough large customers, they may not be able to stay in business. GM estimates the combined market opportunity for parcel and food delivery, as well as reverse logistics, in the U.S. will be more than $850 billion by 2025.\nThe commercial market is expected to be a major growth area for EVs. Other start-up automakers like Rivian as well as legacy automakers such as Ford, Daimler, and GM have announced plans to enter the segment. GM recently announced its BrightDrop ecosystem for commercial customers that includes an all-new electric delivery van, the EV600 available by the end of 2021, as well as an integrated autonomous pallet and related services.\nThis group of EV companies focuses primarily on commercial delivery. In general, these are in the light-duty trucks category, although it also includes some medium-duty trucks. This generally includes the following commercial truck classes:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 1: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 0-6,000 pounds or 0-2,722 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 2: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 6,001-10,000 pounds or 2,722-4,536 kilograms.1</li>\n <li>Class 3: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 10,001-14,000 pounds or 4,536-6,350 kilograms.</li>\n</ul>\nIt can also include somewhat larger medium-duty EV delivery trucks:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.</li>\n</ul>\nEV delivery trucks also have an advantage over ICE vehicles because they can have a greater delivery storage space. Smaller buses and transit vehicles are also included in this category.\nLast-mile package delivery is not an immediate-term autonomous vehicle opportunity because it requires a delivery person to be on the truck anyway.\nWorkhorse Group (WKHS)\nWorkhorse has been a public company for ten years. Originally AMP Electric Vehicles, it was established in 2007 as a developmental-stage vehicle electrification company, focusing on conversions. AMP Electric Vehicles went public in 2010 trading on the OTC market under the AMPD symbol. When the economic benefits of conversion became less certain, it pivoted away from passenger vehicles and began to focus on electrifying commercial vehicles. AMP acquired the Workhorse brand and the Workhorse custom chassis assembly plant in Union City. In March of 2013, AMP formally changed its name to Workhorse Group Incorporated.\nThe Company designs and builds a last-mile delivery electric vehicle. The C-Series EVs cover the larger size of commercial delivery vehicles in Classes 3-5. As part of its solutions, it also develops cloud-based, real-time telematics performance monitoring systems. It sells its vehicles to fleet customers directly and through its primary distributor, Ryder Systems. It is currently focused on bringing the C-Series electric delivery truck to market and fulfilling the existing backlog of orders.\nThe C-Series looks like a viable EV replacement for the 350,000 last-mile delivery vehicles sold in the U.S. annually. It recently announced an increased driving range from 100 miles to 160, which should open more market opportunities. It has a viable short-term go-to-market strategy selling fleets to delivery companies. It currently has test vehicles with UPS, DHL, FedEx, Amazon, and Walmart.\nWorkhorse recently lost out on the United States Postal Services Next Generation Delivery Vehicle project, however, it is in the process of challenging this decision. Additionally, its investment in Lordstown also provides an indirect investment opportunity. On November 7, 2019, the Company entered a transaction with Lordstown Motors to grant LMC a perpetual and worldwide license to certain intellectual property relating to its W-15 electric pickup truck platform and related technology in exchange for royalties, equity interest (approximately 10%) in LMC, and other considerations. This was a $320 million asset for Workhorse at the end of 2020.\nWorkhorse received a significant increase in orders in Q4/2020 but built just seven trucks in the fourth quarter due to production systems and supply chain issues. Workhorse plans to continue to take it slow, striving to build three of its composite-body battery-electric trucks a day in March with a plan to reach 10 trucks a day by the end of June. This makes its original 2021 goal of producing 1,800 trucks unlikely. It partnered with Hitachi and Hitachi Capital America (\"HCA\") to improve the Company's manufacturing, operational, and supply chain capabilities as well as to develop a national dealer network to support Workhorse's sales with vehicle financing options for both dealers and customers.\nWorkhorse has a market cap of approximately $1.9 billion. While Workhorse had ongoing revenue, unlike many other new EV companies, its revenue is still insignificant. It had a revenue of $1.4 million in 2020 and $377,000 in 2019. It has a backlog of over 8,000 vehicles but doesn't expect to be able to build many of those in 2021. It raised $270 million in capital over several financings, providing the Company with additional capital to build its backlog. It had cash of $215 million as of March 1, 2021. Because Workhorse is a traditional public company, it hasn't made long-term financial projections like SPAC-based companies.\nElectric Last Mile (FIII)\nElectric Last Mile, based in Troy Michigan, was founded by Jason Luo, former CEO of Ford China before it was acquired by China's Ningbo Joyson Electronic for $920 million in 2016, including James Taylor, former CEO of GM's Hummer brand and former CEO of electric car maker Karma Automotive. Taylor serves as the company's top executive with Luo as the company's chairman.\nThe company plans to launch a small electric delivery van (class 1-2), called the UD-1, in the third quarter of 2021, and then introduce an Urban Utility vehicle (Class 2-3) in 2022. These are expected to compete with Workhorse, Rivian, Canoo, as well as the Ford eTransit and the GMC BV1, none of which is expected to be a Class 1 vehicle.\nThe company says it has 30,000 preorders for its van, representing more than $1 billion in sales. Electric Last Miles vehicles will be based on Sokon's commercial van made in China through a joint venture with Dongfeng Automobile Co Ltd. in order to accelerate development time.\nElectric Last Mile (ELM) is expected to manufacture the vans in a former General Motors Co. Hummer plant in Mishawaka, Ind., that the company is acquiring from China's Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co. Ltd. The plant has the capacity to produce 100,000 vehicles annually with plans to build approximately 4,000 UD-1 vans by the end of 2021. The UD-1 has a starting price of $32,500 and a range of 150 miles. The battery for the vehicle is expected to be supplied by the Chinese battery company CATL.\nELM believes that it has a competitive advantage because its first vehicle, the ELM Urban Delivery, is scheduled to be available in 2021. It is based on a proven, existing platform developed and sold by Sokon Group in the Asian market, where there are 30,000 of these electric delivery vehicles driving 1.5 million miles every day. At the close of the business combination, ELM will be an independent, U.S. company producing electric vehicles in the U.S. with Sokon Group providing access to its know-how, parts supply, and field and service data.\nELM expects that the Urban Delivery vehicle will be the first electric delivery vehicle coming to market in the class 1 category (GVW of 6,000 lbs or less) in the U.S. It will also have 35% more carrying volume compared to similar ICE delivery vehicles, a critical part of the value proposition. It also anticipates that its price and greater carrying volume will allow it to take market share from the class 2 category of vehicles as well.\nIts crossover product portfolio strategy targets commercial delivery vehicles spanning from class 1 to class 3, which represents over 80% of the last mile market.\nELM anticipates $122 million in revenue in 2021, rapidly increasing to $3 billion in 2025. The price of FIII stock increased immediately following its announcement with Electric Last Mile, rising more than 40% to $14.50, but now it has dropped closer to the original deal price to $10.25 for a market cap of approximately $1.5 billion.\nGreenPower Motor Company (GP)\nGreenPower Motor Company Inc. is a Canadian battery-electric bus manufacturer with multiple models of high- and low-floor vehicles, including transit buses, school buses, and shuttles. GreenPower offers commercial vehicles for delivery, public transit, schools, vanpooling, micro-transit, shuttles, and is developing a capability of autonomous operation. It went public on August 28, 2020.\nIn 2014 GreenPower launched its first purpose-built, battery-electric bus, the EV350, 40-foot transit bus. GreenPower received its first order in 2017 for ten EV350s from the City of Porterville, California.\nGreenPower's electric buses are purpose-built and designed to be all-electric, allowing it to put the battery and propulsion system in optimized locations that provide weight and structural advantages. Its primary EV is the EV Star with more than 120 vehicles delivered. It comes in several variations:\n<ul>\n <li>EV Star - Up to 19 passengers</li>\n <li>EV Star Plus - Up to 24 passengers</li>\n <li>EV Star ADA - Passenger and curbside lift for ADA</li>\n <li>EV Star Cargo - 5,000 pounds of load</li>\n <li>EV Star Cargo Plus - 570 cubic feet of cargo space.</li>\n</ul>\nIts EV school bus seats up to 90 students and has a range of up to 150 miles.\nGreenPower had revenue of $13.5 million in 2020 It has about $21 million in cash. It's an interesting alternative since it is already shipping EVs, has revenue, and also has a lower market cap of less than $1 billion. Since it did a traditional IPO, it hasn't published longer-term financial forecasts.\nArrival (CIIC)\nArrival was founded in 2015 in London to make a variety of commercial electric vehicles. It has approximately 1,200 employees across 11 cities in 8 countries. In November 2020, Arrival and the SPAC CIIG entered into a business combination agreement with an implied valuation of $5.39 billion.\nArrival plans on releasing four commercial EVs over the next few years.\n<ul>\n <li>Q4/2021: An electric bus for 8-125 passengers and a range of 240-400km</li>\n <li>Q3/2022: An electric delivery van with a payload of 975-2,000kg and a range of 150-340km</li>\n <li>2022: A larger electric van with a payload of 4,000 kg and a range of 190-400km</li>\n <li>2023: a small vehicle platform with a range of 100-300km.</li>\n</ul>\nThis mix provides a nice diversified portfolio of EVs. Arrival claims to have received orders from UPS for 10,000 vans. It plans a unique flexible manufacturing approach using micro-factories with each projected to manufacture 10,000 vans per year. All of its vehicles use a modular skateboard electric platform.\nArrival ambitiously projects $14.1 billion in revenue in 2024. Half of that revenue is expected from delivery vans, 22% from buses, and the rest from the large van and its small vehicle platform. With CIIC's stock price at $24.80 per share, Arrival's current market cap is relatively high at approximately $15.0 billion. Justifying its market cap depends on its ability to release, sell, and produce its four commercial EVs.\nProterra (ACTC)\nProterra is a commercial electric vehicle company with over a decade of production experience. The Company has designed an end-to-end, flexible technology platform that claims to deliver higher performance and a low total cost of ownership to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end customers.\nProterra, Inc., was originally founded in Golden, Colorado, by Dale Hill in 2004. Later the company wanted to take the lead in creating zero-emission, U.S.-based transit buses. In 2010 it moved its manufacturing plant from Golden, Colorado to Greenville, South Carolina. In 2015, Proterra was awarded a $3 million grant from the California Energy Commission to fund the design, development, and construction of the company's battery-electric transit bus manufacturing line in the City of Industry, California. It moved its headquarters from Greenville, South Carolina, to Burlingame, California, in October 2015. Proterra raised more than $600 million in funding.\nIt is going public through the SPAC ArcLight (ACTC) with a pro forma valuation of $1.6 billion. Upon completion of the transaction, Proterra expects to have up to $825 million in cash to fund growth initiatives, including R&amp;D and the expansion of its next-generation battery program.\nProterra has three complementary businesses:\n<ul>\n <li>Proterra Powered: Delivering battery systems and electrification solutions to commercial vehicle manufacturers</li>\n <li>Proterra Transit:Providing an electric transit bus OEMs</li>\n <li>Proterra Energy:Offering turnkey charging and energy management solutions.</li>\n</ul>\nThe company's battery systems have been proven in more than 16 million service miles driven by its fleet of transit vehicles and validated through partnerships with commercial vehicle OEMs. Proterra has produced and delivered more than 300 megawatt-hours of battery systems, more than 550 heavy-duty electric transit buses, and installed 54 megawatts of charging systems.\nProterra expected $193 million of revenue in 2020, with an estimated $750 million in existing orders and backlog. It projects $2.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with about 1/3 coming from its Transit business, and 2/3 From Powered &amp; Energy. At ACTC's current stock price of $17.85, Proterra has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nRivian\nRivian (see earlier description in consumer retail) will also compete in the commercial delivery market. It has been working with Amazon (a major investor) to build large electric delivery vans for Prime. Developed specifically for Amazon, a small fleet of Prime vans is on the road now, testing deliveries to customers and gathering feedback. In late fall, it could grow to a large fleet as Rivian ramps up the volume.\nThe EV range of 150 miles is tailored to Amazon's use cycle to optimize the size, weight, and cost of the commercial vehicle. Rivian has three sizes of batteries, but Amazon is starting with just one of them.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nSee the previous summary under consumer retail EV.\nMedium and Long-Haul Trucking EV Companies\nCompanies developing medium- and long-haul EV trucks face a more difficult challenge with battery range. These trucks haul much more weight than commercial delivery vehicles and because they are designed for long distances, they can't stop every 200-300 miles for recharging.\nFor this reason, many of these companies are using unique hybrid technologies for their trucks. The EV trucks in this category are primarily heavy-duty but also include some medium-duty trucks and specialty vehicles. A couple of the companies focus on retrofitting trucks to be electric.\nMedium-Duty Trucks\nThe medium-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 4, 5, and 6:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 6: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 19,501-26,000 pounds or 8,846-11,793 kilograms.1</li>\n</ul>\nHeavy-Duty Trucks\nThe heavy-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 7 and 8:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 7: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 26,001 to 33,000 pounds or 11,794-14,969 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 8: This class of trucks has a GVWR of greater than 33,001 pounds or 14,969 kilograms and includes all tractor-trailers.</li>\n</ul>\nThe Tesla Semi is a battery vehicle planned for a range of 300 or 500 miles and a speed of 60 MPH with 80,000 lbs of cargo. Tesla plans to start shipping the Semi later this year when it expects to have sufficient cell volume to meet its needs with the production of its 4680 battery pack.\nNikola(NASDAQ:NKLA)\nNikola has been a very controversial company. Founded in 2015, it originally had two different strategies. Its primary strategy is to lease fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) Class-8 heavy trucks and provide the refueling infrastructure to corporate customers. Its second strategy was to develop the Badger EV truck using GM technology.\nNikola originally merged with a SPAC to go public, at an enterprise value of approximately $3.3 billion. On June 6th, 2020, its market cap jumped to more than $30 billion, then later it dropped because of problems with its originally planned deal with GM.\nNikola originally expected a deal with General Motors that included the production of the Nikola Badger EV pickup truck. The proposed arrangement was that GM would take a $2 billion equity stake in Nikola and in return would engineer and produce the Badger. In November 2020, GM and Nikola scrapped the original arrangement. Now it appears that GM will supply Nikola with only its Hydrotec hydrogen fuel-cell technology to integrate into the EV manufacturer's commercial class 7 and class 8 zero-emission semi-trucks. So, the Badger is probably dead.\nNikola now sees semi-trucks as the company's \"core business\" and fuel cells as an increasingly important segment of the semi-truck market thanks to their efficiency in weight and consumption. It expects to begin testing by the end of 2021.\nIt has received pre-orders from Anheuser-Busch and a few other companies, but it doesn't expect deliveries until 2023. Hydrogen fueling stations are key to its strategy, both providing a source of revenue and necessary fueling infrastructure for the trucks to operate, but they also cost a lot. In its March 2020 investor deck, Nikola said a single station capable of fueling 210 trucks a day would cost $16.6 million. Its initial planned network of 700 stations would cost roughly $11.6 billion.\nNikola was also accused of misrepresentation, and its executive chairman and founder stepped down.\nAt the time of the SPAC merger, it projected an optimistic forecast of more than $3 billion in revenue by 2024, with a net income of $145 million. Most of that revenue was expected to come from its Badger truck, which is no longer in the plans. Yet its market cap is still almost $6 billion.\nHyliion (HYLN)\nHyliion, founded in 2015 in Austin, went public in October 2020 through the SPAC Tortoise Acquisition Corp. (SHLL). In March 2019, automotive parts manufacturer Dana Inc. made an equity investment into Hyliion, and together they are manufacturing and marketing Class 8 EVs to Dana's customers, including Volvo, Navistar, and Peterbilt.\nHyliion's strategy is unique, and a very different strategy from Nikola. Essentially it generates electricity onboard the truck using compressed natural gas (CNG). This should be a benefit for longer-range trucking. Hyliion's Hypertruck concept involves an all-electric drivetrain utilizing Dana's electric motor, inverter, and axle technologies. The truck's batteries are fueled by onboard tanks of CNG. With some 700 CNG stations already operating nationwide, it believes that there no need to build out expensive superchargers or hydrogen infrastructure.\nKuwait-based logistics company, Agility, has already placed an order for 1,000 Hypertrucks with initial deliveries targeted in 2022. Combined with a fully electric drivetrain and a natural gas-powered onboard generator to recharge the battery, the Hypertruck ERX will provide more than 1,000 miles of range.\nHyliion will eventually compete with Nikola (FCEV) and the Tesla battery-based Semi, but it plans to have a longer range and lower operating costs. Its HyperTruck ERX is expected to be available in 2021. It also has a hybrid-electric truck.\nThe combination with SHLL had an estimated market cap of about $1.5 billion, with approximately $530 million going to the company, including a $325 million fully committed PIPE. At approximately $13.50 per share, its current market cap is approximately $2.2 billion, significantly down from its peak. Hyliion projects $2 billion in revenue in 2024, which it claims is only about 2% of the addressable market.\nXL Fleet (XL)\nXL Fleet is a 10-year old company that went public through the SPAC Pivotal. XL is different because it provides fleet electrification modifications for ICE trucks across a wide range of vehicle classes (class 2-5) and types. It has over 200 of the largest commercial and municipal fleets as customers, with more than 3,200 XL systems deployed and over 130 million miles driven by customers to date. XL's customer base includes FedEx, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Verizon, the City of Boston, Seattle Fire Department, Yale University, and Harvard University.\nXL's business model is essentially retrofitting existing trucks to be hybrids and then later expanding into fully electric truck conversions. It claims to be creating a fully integrated platform for this. It remains to be seen if the retrofitting business will continue to grow or will it diminish when more trucks are designed and manufactured with EV capabilities.\nUnlike some other EV companies that have no revenue yet because they are still developing products, XL is more of a small company doing low-volume retrofits. It had $7.2 million in revenue in 2019, $21 million in 2020, and estimates $76 million in 2021, but it forecasts $1.3 billion in revenue in 2024 in its investor presentation. It plans to do this by expanding its product line from hybrid to plug-in hybrid to fully electric across a broader range of trucks. It claims to have a $220 million sales pipeline for the next 12 months.\nShort-seller, Muddy Waters, claimed after talking to former XL Fleet employees, that it believed the company significantly exaggerated its order backlog, that the return on investment for the company's products was likely negative, and that it would not be able to compete with big car makers on electrification. The company thoroughly refuted these claims.\nThe original enterprise valuation was approximately $1.4 billion at a $10 share price for the merger. Its price jumped by about 35% but has since gone back down to $12.40 for a market cap of about $1.8 billion. Although XL Fleet has revenue and other EV companies don't, this may not be an advantage. It appears to be a small company for many years that has gone public at a high valuation with grand plans. The risks are in its ability to make a jump from $76 million in 2021 to $1.3 billion in 2024, as well as the question about retrofitting being replaced by new EV trucks by then.\nXos (NGAC)\nXos Trucks specializes in the field of manufacturing fully electric commercial vehicles. It features a software platform that is designed to accommodate an extensive variety of medium-duty bodies, wheelbase, and range requirements up to 200 miles. It was founded in 2016 and headquartered in North Hollywood, California. It received $20 million of investment in 2020 and now is going public through a merger with the SPAC ExtGen Acquisition Corporation (NGAC) at an estimated proforma value of $1.965 billion.\nIts focus is on medium- and heavy-duty last mile and return-to-base segments (class 5/6, class 6/7, and class 7/8) commercial fleets and specialty vehicles. Some vehicles are currently in production and in regular on-road operations with key fleet customers, and it claimed 6,000 unit orders in backlog.\nIts MD-platform is for classes 5-6 for pickup and delivery. Its HD X-Platform is an adaptable chassis for highway, vocational, and severe work conditions. Its market is for customers with highly predictable routes that allow for batteries designed for a more limited range. A significantly larger frame and smaller battery pack allow for reduced density.\nXos has a bundled all-in-one offering that allows fleets to access all the tools and services they need to go electric with a single point of contact at a fixed monthly expense.\nXos had $3 million in revenue in 2020 and estimates $14 million in 2021. However, it forecasts $5.2 billion in revenue in 2025. At the current stock price of $10.30, its market cap is approximately $2 billion, about the same as its original SPAC transaction.\nLion Electric (NGA)\nLion Electric is a Canadian company founded by Marc Bédard in 2008. Its focus is to be a leader in designing, developing, and manufacturing purpose-built urban electric vehicles; vehicles that are specifically designed as delivery trucks, refuse trucks, bucket trucks, moving trucks, school buses, and shuttle buses. It has over 300 all-electric vehicles on the road today.\nIn November 2020, it announced that it was going public through the SPAC NGA. The transaction had an estimated pro forma enterprise value of $1.5 billion.\nIt plans on seven new truck models and one new school bus, for a total of 15 all-electric vehicles, representing a full line-up from class 5 to class 8 electric trucks and a full line-up of electric school buses. Its vehicles are produced at its existing manufacturing plant, which has the capacity for the production of up to 2,500 vehicles per year. It intends to open a new plant in the U.S. capable of delivering over 20,000 Lion trucks and buses per year by 2022.\nIts all-electric class 6 and class 8 commercial urban trucks combine power, comfort, and modern technology. Custom-built chassis and cabin designed specifically for an all-electric heavy-duty vehicle. The LionC is an all-electric Type C school bus manufactured in North America. The body and chassis were specifically designed to deliver optimal performance. The LionM is an all-electric midi/minibus that meets paratransit and public transportation requirements. Created and designed specifically for the paratransit market, the is spacious and offers unique features that provide enhanced security and accessibility to the end-users.\nLion Electric had $29 million in revenue in 2020 and expects $204 million in 2021. It forecasts revenue to jump to $3.6 billion a few years later in 2024. Its current market cap is approximately $3.6 billion based on its current stock price of $18.33.\nLightning eMotors (GIK)\nLightning eMotors, formerly Lightning Systems, was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Loveland, Colorado. It provides fleet electrification for familiar commercial vehicle platforms by retrofitting them with its electric powertrains. Lightning eMotors produces electric fleet medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including delivery trucks, shuttle buses, passenger vans, ambulances, bucket trucks, chassis-cab models, and city transit buses. It focuses on urban commercial zero-emission vehicles with a full range of class 3 through class 7 battery-electric and fuel-cell electric vehicles.\nLighting eMotors helps commercial fleets achieve their sustainability goals by offering zero-emission battery-electric vans, trucks, and buses based on familiar, proven vehicles from manufacturers such as Ford and GM. It works with customers, to help them identify their unique commercial electric vehicle, charging, and grant support needs.\nThe Lightning products include integrated all-electric powertrains for the Ford Transit 350HD passenger and cargo vans, Ford E-450 shuttle bus and cutaway models, Ford F-59 step/food van, Ford F-550 cargo trucks and buses, Chevrolet 6500XD Low Cab Forward model, and 30-foot, 35-foot, and 40-foot transit buses.\nLightning has 120 vehicles on the road, and 1,500 vehicles already on order from customers. In addition to making vehicles and powertrains, Lightning also provides a full suite of charging solutions for customers.\nThe deal with GIK has an enterprise value of $650 million, although there is also an Earnout of 20.0% of total pro forma shares outstanding to Lightning eMotors shareholders if the stock crosses certain price thresholds.\nAt the current price, of $11.73, GIK has a market cap of approximately $1 billion, a little more than the original transaction valuation. Similar to XL Fleet, Lightning has the risk that retrofitting may only be an interim business opportunity until more EV trucks are produced.\nPublic Chinese EV Companies\nChina will be the biggest EV market opportunity, and EV start-ups may do better there because there isn't as much entrenched competition from domestic auto companies. China is already the largest EV market in the world, with almost a million EVs sold in 2019. Its EV market represents almost half of the global EV sales volume and is much larger than the U.S. market.\nThe Chinese government has ambitions to become a global leader in new energy vehicles. Soon after the coronavirus outbreak subsided within the country, Chinese authorities announced new policies to support the auto and electric vehicle industries.\nThese Chinese companies are traded through American depository shares (ADS) that contain certain risks. There are financial reporting and transparency risks with these companies, and on top of that, the newer companies are being classified as \"emerging growth\" companies that are already exempt from certain transparency requirements set out in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Like the previous EV stock, these stocks have also been very volatile.\nIn addition to legacy auto manufacturers like BYD, there are also three Chinese EV companies that are publicly traded through American depositary shares.\nBYD Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:BYDDY)\nBYD, which means build your dreams, is the automotive subsidiary of the Chinese multinational BYD Co Ltd. It was founded in January 2003, following BYD Company's acquisition of Tsinchuan Automobile Company. The company produces automobiles, buses, electric bicycles, forklifts, rechargeable batteries, and trucks. The current model range of automobiles includes electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and petrol-engined vehicles. Thirteen years ago, on the advice of his famously skeptical lieutenant, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett made a $232 million investment in BYD, a relatively unknown Chinese car company.\nBy parlaying BYD's rechargeable battery technology into a fast-growing carmaking operation, it gained a foothold in the fledgling electric vehicle market, building longer-lasting batteries and cheaper vehicles than American and Japanese manufacturers were managing to do at the time. In BYD, Buffett and Munger believed they had found a company with a shot at one day becoming the largest player in a global automobile market that was inevitably going electric.\nBYD's start to 2021 was strong with 19,871 plug-in electric cars sold in January in China, including hybrid plug-ins. That was a big increase over 2020 but not as much as 2019.\nLI Auto (LI)\nLixiang, formerly known as Chehejia (\"Car and Home\"), was founded in 2015 and went public in the U.S. on July 30th, 2020. It is a Beijing-based electric-vehicle startup with vertically integrated manufacturing. It designs, researches, manufactures, sells, and offers services featuring a few models of electric vehicles.\nThe company's SUVs are hybrids of a sort. They use electric motors (one on the front axle and one on the rear), but those motors are powered by a combination of a 40.5kWh battery packanda 1.2-liter turbocharged engine paired to a 45-liter fuel tank and a 100kW electric generator, which generates power for the battery pack in real-time. The idea is that the car can be driven for about 100 miles on battery power alone, but it has a total range of nearly 500 miles when leveraging the combustion engine generator.\nThe Company's primary product is an SUV under its brand Li ONE. It also sells peripheral products and provides related services, such as charging stalls, vehicle internet connection services, and extended lifetime warranties. Li Auto is looking to sell a variety of SUVs built on its hybrid technology that range from around $21,000 to about $70,000. The company started shipping its first model in late 2019. It's a midsize SUV is well-appointed and has lots of touchscreens and technology. A full-size premium version is planned for release in 2022.\nDeliveries of Li ONEs were 14,464 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a 67.0% quarter-over-quarter increase and setting a new quarterly record. Deliveries for the full year 2020 reached 32,624 vehicles. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $635 million.\nLI auto went public on July 30th, 2020, raising $1.1 billion at an initial price of $15.50 per share but quickly reached almost $24. It is currently valued at approximately $37 billion at a price of approximately $25.72 per share.\nXPeng (XPEV)\nXiaopeng (XPeng) Motors is a Chinese electric vehicle and technology company that designs and manufactures smart cars. It was founded in 2015 and went public on August 27, 2020, using American depository shares, raising about $1 billion. To date, it has raised about $2.6 billion.\nXPeng aims its EVs at technology-savvy middle-class Chinese consumers, with prices ranging from $22,000 to $45,000 after government subsidies. In some ways, it is a Tesla knock-off at a much lower price. XPeng started production of the G3 in November 2018, and as of July 31, 2020, delivered 18,741. It started production of the P7 and began delivery in May 2020, and as of July 31, 2020, it had delivered 1,966 EVs. The P7 has a range of more than 400 miles. It plans to launch a third Smart EV, a sedan, in 2021. The G3 was among the top-three best-selling electric SUVs in China in 2019.\nXPeng is interesting because it has a platform strategy and is moving aggressively into autonomous driving. It uses a platform strategy to expand product offerings by launching one Smart EV model each year to broaden the addressable market. It builds new models on two highly flexible Smart EV platforms, called David and Edward, respectively. The David platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,600 millimeters to 2,800 millimeters, and the Edward platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,800 millimeters to 3,100 millimeters. It also adopted a platform approach for software systems.\nXPeng claims to be developing an autonomous driving capability for its EVs. The P7 is the first production vehicle to feature the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Xavier system-on-a-chip (SoC) autonomous driving platform. The company's Smart Electric Platform Architecture (SEPA) runs on 2 chips - NVIDIA for the XPILOT and Qualcomm's Snapdragon™ 820A for intelligent services and infotainment, including cameras inside and outside, radars, HD-map, and ultrasonic sensors. Like Tesla, it claims it can create sufficiently-autonomous driving without lidar.\nTo enhance brand recognition and allow more people to experience its Smart EVs, it deployed a small number of Smart EVs in a ride-hailing service in Guangzhou on a trial basis, but it has no current plan to scale up a ride-hailing service.\nXpeng sees first-quarter 2021 deliveries rising 450% year-over-year to 12,500 vehicles. Revenues are expected to increase 533% from a year ago. The company didn't provide bottom-line estimates for the quarter, but will likely post another net loss as it ramps up manufacturing, invests in R&amp;D, and builds out a new manufacturing plant set to open in 2022.\nXpeng reported selling 12,964 vehicles in Q4 2020, up 303% from a year ago. It delivered a total of 27,041 vehicles in 2020, up 112%. It makes the P7 sedan, a rival to the made-in-China Tesla Model 3, and the small G3 SUV.\nThe stock opened on August 27, 2020 at a price of $15 and a valuation of $11 billion, but its stock jumped more than 40% shortly after. Its current valuation is about $35 billion at a stock price of approximately $36.13 per share. It had about $300 million in revenue in 2019 with a loss of about $500 million.\nNio (NIO)\nUnlike previous companies, Nio has been a public company for some time. It originally went public in the U.S. back in September of 2018, selling IPO shares at $6.26 and raising $1 billion.\nNio's IPO was far from smooth. After going public at $6.26 per share, it traded down to nearly $1. Then in the middle of the coronavirus outbreak, Nio received a much-needed investment of $1 billion from investors, including state-backed entities.\nNio designs, jointly manufactures, and sells smart and connected premium electric vehicles, attempting to develop next-generation technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving, and artificial intelligence. Joint manufacturing means that it uses a state-owned contract manufacturer to build its cars.\nNio plans to provide customers with comprehensive, convenient, and innovative charging solutions and other user-centric services. It began deliveries of the ES8, a 7-seater high-performance premium electric SUV in China in June 2018, and its variant, the six-seater ES8, in March 2019. Nio officially launched the ES6, a 5-seater high-performance premium electric SUV, in December 2018 and began deliveries in June 2019. It officially launched the EC6, a 5-seater smart premium electric Coupe SUV, in December 2019 with deliveries in 2020.\nNio sold 17,353 EVs in Q4/2020 and 43,728 for the year. It warned a shortage in chips and batteries will force a production slowdown to 7,500 a month in Q2 from 10,000 vehicles a month in February.\nNio currently trades at more than $43 per share, including a big jump recently, for a valuation of approximately $48 billion. It had revenue of $2.3 billion in 2019 for a loss of $3.8 billion.\nSummary\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this should provide exciting new investment opportunities. However, the investment terrain is complex. There are dozens of new start-ups where the public can now invest that were previously exclusively venture capital investment opportunities. Many of these are following different roads to success. There are legacy auto manufacturers that could prosper or get destroyed in this transition. There are some exciting new EV company opportunities in China. And then there is Tesla.\nThis EV roadmap is intended to help investors explore different roads to investment by explaining the basic strategies for these EV companies. These roads can have different opportunities and risks, and the roadmap helps to frame these. Above all, valuation is an overriding risk that is highlighted throughout this article.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>New Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNew Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-19 14:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.\nLast October, I wrote a popular article providing...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车","01211":"比亚迪股份","NKLA":"Nikola Corporation","LI":"理想汽车","GP":"GreenPower Motor Company Inc.","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","GOEV":"Canoo Inc.","WKHS":"Workhorse Group, Inc.","F":"福特汽车","002594":"比亚迪","TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来","FSR":"菲斯克","HYLN":"Hyliion Holdings Corp."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1196402560","content_text":"Summary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.\nLast October, I wrote a popular article providing a roadmap for investing in electric vehicles, but since then, so much has changed: new entrants, new strategies, fluctuating valuations, etc.\nSo, I updated and greatly expanded the previous EV investment roadmap.\nThis update includes a deeper look at valuations for 23 EV companies with revenue projections, when available.\nIt also classifies these EV companies into their primary market categories and summarizes their different strategies.\n\nPhoto by Sven Loeffler/iStock via Getty Images\nMy article Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap published five months ago, was popular, and some followers have requested an update. Many new EV companies entered the market, most of them through SPACs. Valuations fluctuated wildly, and there has been a great deal of publicity around these companies.\nThis new updated EV investment roadmap is greatly expanded. In addition to updating the strategies and progress of companies previously discussed, I expanded the number of companies covered. This article also groups EV companies into their primary markets, enabling better comparisons and evaluation of market opportunities. In addition, it includes a comparative valuation chart showing every company's market cap with a comparison to projected revenue, where possible. This takes advantage (good or bad) of looking at the long-term revenue forecasts provided in SPAC mergers that public companies can't make.\nIn addition to the EV manufacturers discussed here, there are also EV investment opportunities in charging station companies, battery manufacturers, and battery materials companies. These were covered in the original roadmap and may also be updated in a later article.\nApproximately 2 million EVs were sold in 2019, and although the number declined along with all auto sales in 2020, it is forecasted to increase in 2021 and reach 8-10 million by 2025. Some forecast that EV sales will be greater than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2030, or even earlier. The automobile market appears to be moving toward a historical transformation, and exceptional investment gains can be made by anticipating new emerging industries and investing in the eventual winners of those new industries. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)are obvious examples. Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to create a new emerging industry.\nThere are also significant risks. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to be released in the next three years, which will drive rapid growth in EV sales. However, the expected sales from these new models, as well as the increasing expectations from Tesla, most likely exceed the total projected market. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the companies covered here won't exist five years from now. It reminds me of the internet bubble of the late 1990s when scores of internet-based companies went public with little or no revenue. Almost all of these failed within three years -- however, a couple, including Amazon, went on to enormous success.\nEVs provide a major new investment opportunity with high risks. To succeed, you need to have a clear EV investment roadmap.\nSo, how can you invest in this new emerging market? The EV landscape is complex and investment opportunities are varied. While Tesla is the unquestioned leader in EVs, some consider it overvalued and unlikely to show exceptional returns to new investors. The current U.S. legacy automakers are committed to introducing many new EVs in the next few years, and they have some entrenched advantages with volume manufacturing capabilities, a dealer infrastructure, and loyal customers. There are exciting new EV start-ups in the U.S. that have come public this year, mostly through Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), and there are several interesting publicly traded Chinese EV manufacturers.\nThis new roadmap for EV investment classifies companies into three primary markets segments:\n\nTheConsumer Retailsegment includes EVs sold to consumers individually, such as SUVs, pickup trucks, sedans, etc.\nTheCommercial Deliverysegment includes local delivery EV vans and trucks sold to fleets.\nTheMedium- and Long-Haul Truckingsegment includes heavier Class 4 - Class 8 trucks, as well as special industrial vehicles.\n\nIn addition, it categorizesLegacy ManufacturersandChinese EV Companies. This enables investors to evaluate investment opportunities by considering unique opportunities within each market segment.\nThere is an enormous amount of investment optimism for EVs, and retail investors have been aggressively buying into EV stocks with seemingly no regard for valuation. Then there is the additional challenge of valuing companies with no revenue, especially those coming public through SPACs. So, valuation is an important investment consideration.\nSo let's start by looking at an overview of comparative EV valuations.\nEV Investment Valuation Overview\nThe following chart summarizes valuations for 23 EV companies, including several legacy companies. For SPACs, market cap estimates are computed using the pro forma number of shares at closing, otherwise using the valuation of the SPAC prior to closing drastically underestimates the valuation, which may be misleading to novice investors. Price/Sales ratios (market cap divided by revenue) are used to compare valuations. As a benchmark, current P/S ratios vary. For example, auto and truck companies have a ratio of 2.7X. Software companies have the highest ratios of over 10X.\nIn the chart, companies that currently have revenue show current P/S ratios. Where projections are available, projected P/S ratios are computed. A note of caution, however. Many of the EV companies came public through SPACs and published their projections (which public companies cannot do), and many of these are likely to prove unrealistic.\nAll of the longer-term revenue projections come from the company (C) forecasts with a SPAC. Some of these may turn out to be accurate, not many are most likely unrealistic. Some, like Lucid, Faraday, and Arrival forecast hitting more than $10 billion in revenue in a few years, when it took Tesla more than 10. Things are different now and they might achieve these, but they could also find that it will take longer to complete development, ramp up production, and create enough customer demand. Many companies may also find that there will be significant capital requirements to achieve this type of growth, and shareholders will be diluted.\n\nTesla, the \"gold standard\" in EVs, has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, which many people believe is overvalued. Its market cap is approximately 20X 2020 revenue and 10X estimated 2022 revenue.\nTesla (TSLA)\nIn the U.S., and to a lesser extent in China, Tesla is the dominant EV provider. It has approximately 60% of the U.S. EV market and about 20% of the market in China. I own a Tesla and love it, but an investment in Tesla stock requires getting comfortable with its valuation. Tesla has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, although declining lately, which some consider still overvalued while others see upside potential.\nThe investment opportunity with Tesla is based on the expectation that it will continue to dominate the EV market, or at least maintain significant market share, despite much greater competition from the expected introduction of hundreds of new EV models in the next few years.\nThere is a great deal already published about Tesla, so I'll move on.\nLegacy Automakers\nSome people think that the legacy automakers will simply fade away. Historically, that was the case in some other industries, but it is not going to happen to most automakers. They are not standing still waiting to become obsolete. Most have aggressive strategies to replace ICE vehicles with EVs. GM plans to invest $27 billion and build and launch as many as 30 new EV models by 2025. Ford plans to invest $29 billion in EVs by 2025 and launch as many as 16 EVs in the next two years. Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY)has also committed billions to develop new EVs.\nThe competitive advantage that legacy automakers have in selling their new EVs is their dealer network. Will new EV customers prefer to continue going to their regular auto dealer to buy their new EV?\nAlmost all legacy automakers worldwide are developing and launching EVs including Volkswagen, Peugeot, Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi, Hyundai/Kia. Let's look a little more closely at GM and Ford as the leaders in the U.S.\nGeneral Motors (GM)\nGM has committed to introducing 20 new electric vehicles by 2023, including EVs across Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC, and Buick. It recently announced that it has already sold out the first-year production of its Hummer electric pickup. By mid-decade, it expects to sell a million EVs per year in its two largest markets: North America and China. As a reference point, Tesla reported deliveries of 367,500 vehicles globally in 2019.\nGM has a solid platform strategy for its EVs. It plans on building its EVs using five interchangeable drive units and three different motors from its Ultium Drive System platform. Ultium energy options range from 50 to 200 kWh, which could enable an estimated range of up to 400 miles. Most of its EVs will have 400-volt battery packs and up to 200 kW fast-charging capability while the truck platform will have 800-volt battery packs and 350 kW fast-charging capabilities.\nThe key building blocks of the Ultium battery system are large-scale, high-energy cells. Engineered in partnership with LG Energy Solutions, they use both advanced chemistry and a smart cell design that's optimized for a broad portfolio of EVs. GM engineers and scientists are actively researching and testing new elements in battery chemistry to lower costs and improve charge times. Ultium can contain either vertically- or horizontally-stacked cells to integrate into vehicle design: vertically for trucks, SUVs, and crossovers, or horizontally for cars and performance vehicles. As new chemistry is developed and becomes available, the battery management system could digitally update the modules.\nGM also has other EV opportunities with its BrightDrop commercial EV service and its Cruise subsidiary. BrightDrop will not just sell delivery EVs, it will provide an entire service platform for commercial delivery customers. Its set of electric delivery vehicles starts with the EV600 and includes the BrightDrop EP1, a pod-like electric pallet. SeeGeneral Motors' Aggressive EV/AV Strategies May Payoff Big.\nWith its highest stock price of $61.65, GM's current market cap is approximately $89 billion, increasing primarily because of its progress with EVs. This approximately 3X valuation in 2018, but still only 13% of Tesla.\nFord (F)\nFord is also investing heavily in EVs. It just introduced the Mustang Mach-E, a battery-powered crossover with sports car styling, and plans to introduce an all-electric version of its best-selling F-150 pickup later this year. Also, planned is an electric edition of the full-size Transit van, which has been popular in the commercial delivery market. Ford has confirmed plans to build a luxury Lincoln crossover on a battery-powered platform provided by Rivian. The automaker also plans to introduce two new midsize electric crossovers, one each for the Ford and Lincoln brands by 2023.\nMustang Mach-E. Source: Ford\nFord's market cap is approximately $51 billion, twice its previous market cap, and also increasing.\nConsumer Retail EV Companies\nThe consumer retail market has some unique characteristics for new EV companies. Sales are made individually, not in fleets. This diversifies the risk upon launch because only a sufficient number of customers need to be attracted to the new EV. A wave of popularity can provide terrific momentum.\nHowever, the lack of a dealer network can be an impediment. Selling EVs directly to consumers instead of through dealers is prohibited in most states. By law, auto manufacturers can't compete with franchised dealers. These are laws that go back many decades to protect dealers. This can be a major impediment for new companies without established independent dealer franchises. So, new AV companies. like Tesla, need to sell their vehicles online. Tesla has successfully done this, but it took a lot of work and time. Lack of a dealer network also creates impediments in service.\nIn addition, over the next 4-5 years, autonomous capabilities will be increasingly important to luxury vehicles. This may prove to be a challenge to start-up EV companies because they can't afford to develop this technology.\nLet's look closer at the alternative consumer retail EV investments.\nLucid Motors (CCIV)\nLucid was founded in 2007 under the name Atieva and originally focused on building electric vehicle batteries and powertrains for other vehicle manufacturers. The company rebranded itself as Lucid Motors in October 2016 and shifted its strategy to develop an all-electric, high-performance, luxury vehicle. Shortly after that, it encountered financial difficulties and struggled to get short-term funding. In 2018 it raised more than $1 billion in investment, primarily from Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund, and gave up a majority of the company.\nLucid Motors reached an agreement to become a publicly-traded company through a merger with the SPAC Churchill Capital IV Corp., in one of the largest deals SPAC EV deals. The combined company, in which Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund will continue to be the largest shareholder, had a transaction equity value of $11.75 billion (for $10/share). At the same time, it closed a PIPE investment priced at $15 a share, giving it an implied pro forma equity value of $24 billion. Rumors about this deal circulated before the transaction was formally announced, making it one of the most anticipated SPAC deals. The hype and speculation drove up the stock price of Churchill Capital IV Corp. from its opening price of $10 a share to almost $60. I believe that some of this may have been driven by novice SPAC investors who didn't realize that the valuation of CCIV didn't include the eventual valuation of Lucid. The share price dropped more than 30% after the details of the deal were announced. It's also likely that Lucid renegotiated the terms of the merger based on the price jump.\nThe company's first product is the Lucid Air, a well-equipped luxury electric vehicle that features 406 miles of projected range and 480 horsepower with a starting price of $77,400, or $69,900 after the U.S. Federal Tax Credit of $7,500. This new Lucid Air model is positioned as a high-performance, ultra-efficient luxury EV sedan in a line of future vehicles that are expected to include Lucid Air Touring, Grand Touring, and Dream Edition versions.\nThe company plans to begin production and deliveries of the Lucid Air in North America in the second half of 2021. Previously the company aimed to begin deliveries earlier in 2021. It intends to sell the car in Europe in 2022, followed by China in 2023. Lucid vehicles will be produced at its new factory in Casa Grande, Arizona. The company plans to expand the factory in phases in the coming years to have the capacity to produce 365,000 units per year at scale. The initial phase of the $700 million factory construction was completed late last year and will have the capacity to produce 30,000 vehicles a year.\nLucid also apparently has a commitment to build an assembly plant in Saudi Arabia, which was rumored to be a condition of the $1 billion investment from the Saudi public fund. The Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund also provided $600 million in bridge financing and invested in the SPAC deal as well. So, while this assembly plant may be expensive and may not be critical, it will most likely need to happen.\nLucid has ambitious plans to achieve $14 billion in revenue in 2025, and its current stock price at $29.17, which gives it a market cap of more than $46 billion, may already reflect those ambitions. Its market cap is roughly the same as Ford.\nFisker (FSR)\nFisker, which had its origins with Fisker Automotive, is an interesting story that ended in bankruptcy. Henrik Fisker originally co-founded Fisker Automotive in 2007. He was responsible for designing many premium cars such as the Aston Martin. Subsequently, Fisker Automotive had to deal with a Tesla lawsuit against Fisker Automotive alleging it stole Tesla's technology, a controversial $528.7 million conditional loan from the Department of Energy, a recall of its battery produced by A123, and the loss of several hundred vehicles in hurricane Sandy. Henrik Fisker resigned in March 2013 because of disagreements over business strategy and in November 2013, Fisker filed its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case.\nHowever, Henrik Fisker retained the Fisker brand and trademarks, and in 2016 he started another electric vehicle company named Fisker Inc. with the Fisker brand and trademarks. In 2019, Fisker shifted from developing a sports car with a solid-state battery to the Ocean SUV featuring a lithium-ion battery, which it later abandoned for a solid-state battery.\nFisker is positioning itself in a unique segment for those who want the most environmentally friendly EV. While this may be an early growth segment for EVs, it's difficult to estimate its eventual competitive advantage and the size of this environmentally-friendly market segment.\nThe Ocean is a crossover made of recycled metal and plastic with an expected base price of $37,499, and an expected lease of less than $400 a month. Fisker's plan is essentially a lease-only business model that lets customers keep a vehicle for years or return it at any time. It aims to source motors, batteries, and other components from technical partnerships with automakers and will outsource production from existing auto plants. Fisker is currently taking reservations at $250 for the Ocean. It also announced an agreement with Foxconn to jointly develop a vehicle pioneering a new market segment to be sold globally under the Fisker brand commencing in Q4 2023. at the end of 2022. Production will start at Magna Steyr's manufacturing facilities in Europe. At the end of February 2021, it had 12,467 cancellable reservations.\nFisker Ocean. Source: Fisker\nFisker went public using a SPAC (Spartan Energy). The original combination with SPAQ in October 2020 was valued at $2.9 billion with a cash investment of approximately $1 billion. The stock currently trades at approximately $21 per share, after reaching a high of $28.50, from the original price of $10, which is a market cap of $4.6 billion. Fisker projects $3.3 billion in revenue in 2023. It had almost $1 billion in cash at the end of 2020 and expected to use almost half of this in 2021: $250 million on operating expenses and $250 million in capital investments. If the Ocean is delayed into 2023, Fisker risks missing its revenue objective and will potentially need additional cash to complete development and launch.\nFaraday Future (PSAC)\nFaraday Future was originally established in May 2014 by Chinese businessman Jia Yueting. It is headquartered in Los Angeles and has offices in Silicon Valley, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu. Faraday Future also had a turbulent history. In 2016, it struggled financially, and in 2017 some key executives departed over a dispute about financial issues. They later founded Canoo.\nIn December 2018 the company announced layoffs due to a cash crunch and financial troubles. The company's founder Jia Yueting filed for personal bankruptcy in the United States' federal court in Delaware on October 14, 2019. Following Jia's personal bankruptcy, he decided to step down from his role as CEO of Faraday Future in order to assume a new position as the Chief Product and User Officer. He was replaced as CEO by Carsten Breitfeld, the former CEO at rival electric vehicle startup Byton.\nSomehow, Faraday was able to raise $2.3 billion in private funding over 5 rounds from a variety of investors. In early 2018, it received $1.5 billion in funding from an undisclosed investor from Hong Kong.\nFaraday's flagship product offering will be the FF 91, featuring 1,050 HP, 0-60 mph in less than 2.4 seconds, zero gravity seats with the largest 60-degree reclining angles, and a user experience designed to create a mobile, connected, and luxurious living space. The FF 91 is targeted to launch in 2022.\nFF 91. Source: Faraday Future\nIts strategic partners include one of China's top three OEMs and a critical Chinese city, which the company believes will help establish its presence in the Chinese vehicle market.\nFaraday Future plans several cars based on its Variable Platform Architecture. FF 91 is the first production vehicle and flagship model. Pricing will range between $120,000 and upwards of $200,000, which places it against formidable opponents. Faraday Future is already looking forward to expanding its range with a pair of smaller models named FF 81 and FF 71. The FF 81 is planned to be priced at $75,000 to 95,000 with a 2023 release. The FF 71 is planned to be priced at $45,000 to $65,000 with a planned release of 2024.\nThe Primary Manufacturing Facility for FF 91 is in Hanford, CA with contract manufacturing for future models in Gunsan, South Korea.\nFaraday Future is planning high-Level automation with a Level-3 capable system using a redundant safety architecture based on NVIDIA Xavier System-on-a-chip. It will be capable of highway auto-drive and hardware ready for advanced auto-drive. It is targeting full autonomous valet parking & summon in any parking lot or structure. Eventually, it expects full auto-drive, including full 360˚ sensor coverage for advanced auto-drive & auto-park features.\nIn January 2021, Faraday Future announced that the company would go public through a reverse merger with the special purpose acquisition company Property Solutions Acquisition Corp. (PSAC). The combined company will be valued at $3.4 billion. Faraday Future is expected to set up contract manufacturing operations in China through their partnership with Geely. Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn is also expected to serve as an additional strategic partner.\nFaraday Future projects $10.5 billion in revenue in 2024 and $21.5 billion in 2025. Revenue is expected to start in 2022 with the delivery of 2,400 vehicles for $504 million. Most likely these projections could prove to be optimistic. At a current stock price of approximately $12.80, it has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nLordstown Motors (RIDE)\nLordstown Motors based in Lordstown, Ohio, was originally founded in 2018 by Steve Burns, the former CEO of Workhorse Group. The company licensed technology from Workhorse in return for royalties and a 10% ownership. Lordstown is named after the famous GM Lordstown manufacturing plant, which it acquired in November 2019 in an unusual transaction. GM announced that it was closing the plant and was under a great deal of pressure for that decision. So, GM \"sold\" the plant to a company that was renamed Lordstown for an estimated $20 million that it loaned to the acquiring company. Subsequently, the sale was redefined to be part of a $75 million investment by GM, of which $50 million was an in-kind exchange for the plant.\nLordstown went public through the SPAC DiamondPeak Holdings Corp. in 2020. It currently has more than 400 employees.\nIts first product is the Lordstown Endurance, a full-sized EV pickup truck. Lordstown is positioning Endurance for the pickup fleet market segment. The expected price is $52,000+, and it claimed to have more than 100,000 pre-orders by January 2021. However, a recent research article published by a short seller claimed \"Our research has revealed that Lordstown's order book consists of fake or entirely non-binding orders, from customers that generally do not even have fleets of vehicles.\" Lordstown is disputing that article.\nIt believes the fleet pickup market segment is underserved with no current EV-focused competition. It estimates that the full-sized pick-up truck fleet market is 1.2 million vehicles per year in the U.S., but it's more fragmented than other truck fleets. Pickup \"fleets\" tend to be much smaller and local, so there may not be much of a market distinction for a small company buying several EV pickups from a traditional auto dealer. About half of the total U.S. pickup market is classified as fleet sales, meaning more than one.\nEven though Lordstown is targeting the commercial fleet market, it is a similar product to the Ford EV F-150. So I classify it in the consumer EV category. It is a class 2 vehicle. Lordstown also may enter the SUV market in the longer-term.\nThe Endurance will compete against future models from Rivian and Tesla, as well as Ford and GM in ICE pick-ups and their upcoming EV pick-ups. Ford plans on selling its EV F-150 in mid-2022. Initial production of the Endurance is expected in the second half of 2021, so it may have a short market advantage. Nevertheless, it forecasts selling 65,000 vehicles in 2023 and 107,000 in 2024. These estimates could be a large percentage of the EV pick-up market in those years.\nAt the SPAC merger, the implied valuation for Lordstown was $1.6 billion, including a $500 million PIPE and the $75 million by GM. Lordstown's financial projections appear to be aggressive. It projects to start shipping the Endurance in late 2021 with projected revenue in 2022 of $1.7 billion, increasing to $5.8 billion in 2024. Its stock price at approximately $13.60 values the company at a market cap of approximately $2.2 billion. The value of the company depends on the likelihood of achieving its projections.\nA fleet sales strategy makes sense for Lordstown since it would be too expensive to build a retail sales and service capability. However, it's not clear that this will become a distinct competitive advantage. Some small fleets may still prefer to buy their EV pickups from established local dealers with service capabilities.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nCanoo started as Evelozcity in 2017 and rebranded as Canoo in the spring of 2019. Canoo is a Los Angeles-based company that develops electric vehicles. It has over 350 employees. Canoo has designed a modular electric platform purpose-built to deliver maximum vehicle interior space, which is adaptable to support a wide range of vehicle applications for consumers and businesses. Canoo expects to launch its first consumer model in 2022, simply named the Canoo that will be available by subscription, followed shortly after by a multi-purpose delivery vehicle and a sports vehicle, each built off of the same underlying platform. Canoo went public using a SPAC (Hennessy Capital Acquisition) and now trades as GOEV.\nCanoo's all-electric skateboard-like platform is designed to support both consumer retail and commercial vehicle configurations. The EV leverages Canoo's flat skateboard architecture for a high level of usable interior space. Its commercial vehicle program, expected in 2023, addresses a projected $50B+ last-mile delivery market with an EV platform that maximizes cargo volume.\nHyundai Motor Group said it would jointly develop an electric vehicle platform with the company.\nCanoo's platform strategy is interesting. It could be used as an EV platform for custom fleets of delivery vehicles. It has no AV development, but it claims to be \"AV Ready\" which could be useful for AV companies wanting to build custom AV delivery fleets.\nIts all-electric multi-purpose delivery vehicle is expected to be priced starting at approximately $33,000. It is based on Canoo's proprietary electric platform and will be offered in two initial size variants, with others to follow. Limited availability will begin in 2022, with scaled production and launch planned for 2023. Customers can pre-order the multi-purpose delivery vehicle for a refundable deposit of $100 per vehicle\nIt plans to offer two multi-purpose delivery vehicles: the MPDV1 and the larger MPDV2. The first has a 200-foot cargo volume and a range of 130-200 miles. It offers more capacity than today's ICE delivery vehicles at an affordable price with urban mobility enabled by a space-efficient footprint. The vehicle is also designed to fit within many height-restricted areas like parking garages.\nThe MPDV2 has a cargo volume of 450 feet and a range of 90-190 miles. Its roof and step-in height enable individuals to easily walk-in the vehicle and accommodate a standing position while inside.\nThe original SPAC transaction provided approximately $600 million, with a pro forma equity value of approximately $2.4 billion. Like other SPAC mergers, its stock price has fluctuated. It currently trades at about $15.90 per share for a market cap of approximately $3.7 billion. Canoo projects $2.0 billion in revenue in 2025 from about $500 million in engineering services, $1.2 billion from its consumer vehicle subscriptions, and the remainder from its commercial program. Canoo expects revenue of more than $300 million in 2022 after the launch of its lifestyle consumer vehicle.\nSince its first products are aimed at consumers, as is most of its forecasted 2025 revenue, I categorize it primarily as a consumer EV company. However, I think the design of that Canoo vehicle may not attract enough customers. More importantly, its subscription service way of selling its EV to consumers is risky. I think it has more potential in the commercial market, however, a dual strategy (consumer and commercial) is challenging. I like its skateboard platform design and that could prove to be a competitive advantage.\nRivian\nAlthough not yet public, I include Rivian because it has plans for an IPO as soon as Sept 2021, although it could slip into 2022. There are rumors that the company is targeting a market valuation of approximately $50B. Rivian has already raised more than $8 billion to date from Amazon, Ford, T. Rowe Price, and others.\nRivian has developed and vertically integrated a connected electric platform that can be flexibly applied to a range of applications, including the company's adventure products, as well as B2B products such as the Amazon last-mile delivery vans. The company's initial products, the R1T and R1S, provide a combination of performance, off-road capability, and utility. These vehicles will be produced at Rivian's manufacturing plant in Normal, Ill., with customer deliveries expected to begin in summer 2021. The launch of the R1S three-row electric SUV will follow in August.\nAdditional lower-priced models are being planned. The expected R2 series would include at least two smaller electric vehicles to coincide with the smaller platform, then another platform for R3.\nCommercial Delivery EV Companies\nEV truck companies differ based on the type of truck they are developing. The technology and markets are very different, so I separate them into two categories. The first category includes commercial delivery vehicles.\nCompanies making EV delivery vehicles have some major advantages that could make them good investments. First, delivery vehicles typically travel less than 250 miles during a day, so they can be conveniently recharged overnight. Secondly, they are typically sold in large quantities to fleets. This means that building a retail sales infrastructure is not necessary. It only requires a small salesforce. In addition, maintenance can also be provided at the fleet's operational center, so not as many service centers are required.\nThe disadvantage in this market is that there are a relatively small number of customers that buy in large volumes, so if the EV manufacturer can't get enough large customers, they may not be able to stay in business. GM estimates the combined market opportunity for parcel and food delivery, as well as reverse logistics, in the U.S. will be more than $850 billion by 2025.\nThe commercial market is expected to be a major growth area for EVs. Other start-up automakers like Rivian as well as legacy automakers such as Ford, Daimler, and GM have announced plans to enter the segment. GM recently announced its BrightDrop ecosystem for commercial customers that includes an all-new electric delivery van, the EV600 available by the end of 2021, as well as an integrated autonomous pallet and related services.\nThis group of EV companies focuses primarily on commercial delivery. In general, these are in the light-duty trucks category, although it also includes some medium-duty trucks. This generally includes the following commercial truck classes:\n\nClass 1: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 0-6,000 pounds or 0-2,722 kilograms.\nClass 2: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 6,001-10,000 pounds or 2,722-4,536 kilograms.1\nClass 3: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 10,001-14,000 pounds or 4,536-6,350 kilograms.\n\nIt can also include somewhat larger medium-duty EV delivery trucks:\n\nClass 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.\nClass 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.\n\nEV delivery trucks also have an advantage over ICE vehicles because they can have a greater delivery storage space. Smaller buses and transit vehicles are also included in this category.\nLast-mile package delivery is not an immediate-term autonomous vehicle opportunity because it requires a delivery person to be on the truck anyway.\nWorkhorse Group (WKHS)\nWorkhorse has been a public company for ten years. Originally AMP Electric Vehicles, it was established in 2007 as a developmental-stage vehicle electrification company, focusing on conversions. AMP Electric Vehicles went public in 2010 trading on the OTC market under the AMPD symbol. When the economic benefits of conversion became less certain, it pivoted away from passenger vehicles and began to focus on electrifying commercial vehicles. AMP acquired the Workhorse brand and the Workhorse custom chassis assembly plant in Union City. In March of 2013, AMP formally changed its name to Workhorse Group Incorporated.\nThe Company designs and builds a last-mile delivery electric vehicle. The C-Series EVs cover the larger size of commercial delivery vehicles in Classes 3-5. As part of its solutions, it also develops cloud-based, real-time telematics performance monitoring systems. It sells its vehicles to fleet customers directly and through its primary distributor, Ryder Systems. It is currently focused on bringing the C-Series electric delivery truck to market and fulfilling the existing backlog of orders.\nThe C-Series looks like a viable EV replacement for the 350,000 last-mile delivery vehicles sold in the U.S. annually. It recently announced an increased driving range from 100 miles to 160, which should open more market opportunities. It has a viable short-term go-to-market strategy selling fleets to delivery companies. It currently has test vehicles with UPS, DHL, FedEx, Amazon, and Walmart.\nWorkhorse recently lost out on the United States Postal Services Next Generation Delivery Vehicle project, however, it is in the process of challenging this decision. Additionally, its investment in Lordstown also provides an indirect investment opportunity. On November 7, 2019, the Company entered a transaction with Lordstown Motors to grant LMC a perpetual and worldwide license to certain intellectual property relating to its W-15 electric pickup truck platform and related technology in exchange for royalties, equity interest (approximately 10%) in LMC, and other considerations. This was a $320 million asset for Workhorse at the end of 2020.\nWorkhorse received a significant increase in orders in Q4/2020 but built just seven trucks in the fourth quarter due to production systems and supply chain issues. Workhorse plans to continue to take it slow, striving to build three of its composite-body battery-electric trucks a day in March with a plan to reach 10 trucks a day by the end of June. This makes its original 2021 goal of producing 1,800 trucks unlikely. It partnered with Hitachi and Hitachi Capital America (\"HCA\") to improve the Company's manufacturing, operational, and supply chain capabilities as well as to develop a national dealer network to support Workhorse's sales with vehicle financing options for both dealers and customers.\nWorkhorse has a market cap of approximately $1.9 billion. While Workhorse had ongoing revenue, unlike many other new EV companies, its revenue is still insignificant. It had a revenue of $1.4 million in 2020 and $377,000 in 2019. It has a backlog of over 8,000 vehicles but doesn't expect to be able to build many of those in 2021. It raised $270 million in capital over several financings, providing the Company with additional capital to build its backlog. It had cash of $215 million as of March 1, 2021. Because Workhorse is a traditional public company, it hasn't made long-term financial projections like SPAC-based companies.\nElectric Last Mile (FIII)\nElectric Last Mile, based in Troy Michigan, was founded by Jason Luo, former CEO of Ford China before it was acquired by China's Ningbo Joyson Electronic for $920 million in 2016, including James Taylor, former CEO of GM's Hummer brand and former CEO of electric car maker Karma Automotive. Taylor serves as the company's top executive with Luo as the company's chairman.\nThe company plans to launch a small electric delivery van (class 1-2), called the UD-1, in the third quarter of 2021, and then introduce an Urban Utility vehicle (Class 2-3) in 2022. These are expected to compete with Workhorse, Rivian, Canoo, as well as the Ford eTransit and the GMC BV1, none of which is expected to be a Class 1 vehicle.\nThe company says it has 30,000 preorders for its van, representing more than $1 billion in sales. Electric Last Miles vehicles will be based on Sokon's commercial van made in China through a joint venture with Dongfeng Automobile Co Ltd. in order to accelerate development time.\nElectric Last Mile (ELM) is expected to manufacture the vans in a former General Motors Co. Hummer plant in Mishawaka, Ind., that the company is acquiring from China's Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co. Ltd. The plant has the capacity to produce 100,000 vehicles annually with plans to build approximately 4,000 UD-1 vans by the end of 2021. The UD-1 has a starting price of $32,500 and a range of 150 miles. The battery for the vehicle is expected to be supplied by the Chinese battery company CATL.\nELM believes that it has a competitive advantage because its first vehicle, the ELM Urban Delivery, is scheduled to be available in 2021. It is based on a proven, existing platform developed and sold by Sokon Group in the Asian market, where there are 30,000 of these electric delivery vehicles driving 1.5 million miles every day. At the close of the business combination, ELM will be an independent, U.S. company producing electric vehicles in the U.S. with Sokon Group providing access to its know-how, parts supply, and field and service data.\nELM expects that the Urban Delivery vehicle will be the first electric delivery vehicle coming to market in the class 1 category (GVW of 6,000 lbs or less) in the U.S. It will also have 35% more carrying volume compared to similar ICE delivery vehicles, a critical part of the value proposition. It also anticipates that its price and greater carrying volume will allow it to take market share from the class 2 category of vehicles as well.\nIts crossover product portfolio strategy targets commercial delivery vehicles spanning from class 1 to class 3, which represents over 80% of the last mile market.\nELM anticipates $122 million in revenue in 2021, rapidly increasing to $3 billion in 2025. The price of FIII stock increased immediately following its announcement with Electric Last Mile, rising more than 40% to $14.50, but now it has dropped closer to the original deal price to $10.25 for a market cap of approximately $1.5 billion.\nGreenPower Motor Company (GP)\nGreenPower Motor Company Inc. is a Canadian battery-electric bus manufacturer with multiple models of high- and low-floor vehicles, including transit buses, school buses, and shuttles. GreenPower offers commercial vehicles for delivery, public transit, schools, vanpooling, micro-transit, shuttles, and is developing a capability of autonomous operation. It went public on August 28, 2020.\nIn 2014 GreenPower launched its first purpose-built, battery-electric bus, the EV350, 40-foot transit bus. GreenPower received its first order in 2017 for ten EV350s from the City of Porterville, California.\nGreenPower's electric buses are purpose-built and designed to be all-electric, allowing it to put the battery and propulsion system in optimized locations that provide weight and structural advantages. Its primary EV is the EV Star with more than 120 vehicles delivered. It comes in several variations:\n\nEV Star - Up to 19 passengers\nEV Star Plus - Up to 24 passengers\nEV Star ADA - Passenger and curbside lift for ADA\nEV Star Cargo - 5,000 pounds of load\nEV Star Cargo Plus - 570 cubic feet of cargo space.\n\nIts EV school bus seats up to 90 students and has a range of up to 150 miles.\nGreenPower had revenue of $13.5 million in 2020 It has about $21 million in cash. It's an interesting alternative since it is already shipping EVs, has revenue, and also has a lower market cap of less than $1 billion. Since it did a traditional IPO, it hasn't published longer-term financial forecasts.\nArrival (CIIC)\nArrival was founded in 2015 in London to make a variety of commercial electric vehicles. It has approximately 1,200 employees across 11 cities in 8 countries. In November 2020, Arrival and the SPAC CIIG entered into a business combination agreement with an implied valuation of $5.39 billion.\nArrival plans on releasing four commercial EVs over the next few years.\n\nQ4/2021: An electric bus for 8-125 passengers and a range of 240-400km\nQ3/2022: An electric delivery van with a payload of 975-2,000kg and a range of 150-340km\n2022: A larger electric van with a payload of 4,000 kg and a range of 190-400km\n2023: a small vehicle platform with a range of 100-300km.\n\nThis mix provides a nice diversified portfolio of EVs. Arrival claims to have received orders from UPS for 10,000 vans. It plans a unique flexible manufacturing approach using micro-factories with each projected to manufacture 10,000 vans per year. All of its vehicles use a modular skateboard electric platform.\nArrival ambitiously projects $14.1 billion in revenue in 2024. Half of that revenue is expected from delivery vans, 22% from buses, and the rest from the large van and its small vehicle platform. With CIIC's stock price at $24.80 per share, Arrival's current market cap is relatively high at approximately $15.0 billion. Justifying its market cap depends on its ability to release, sell, and produce its four commercial EVs.\nProterra (ACTC)\nProterra is a commercial electric vehicle company with over a decade of production experience. The Company has designed an end-to-end, flexible technology platform that claims to deliver higher performance and a low total cost of ownership to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end customers.\nProterra, Inc., was originally founded in Golden, Colorado, by Dale Hill in 2004. Later the company wanted to take the lead in creating zero-emission, U.S.-based transit buses. In 2010 it moved its manufacturing plant from Golden, Colorado to Greenville, South Carolina. In 2015, Proterra was awarded a $3 million grant from the California Energy Commission to fund the design, development, and construction of the company's battery-electric transit bus manufacturing line in the City of Industry, California. It moved its headquarters from Greenville, South Carolina, to Burlingame, California, in October 2015. Proterra raised more than $600 million in funding.\nIt is going public through the SPAC ArcLight (ACTC) with a pro forma valuation of $1.6 billion. Upon completion of the transaction, Proterra expects to have up to $825 million in cash to fund growth initiatives, including R&D and the expansion of its next-generation battery program.\nProterra has three complementary businesses:\n\nProterra Powered: Delivering battery systems and electrification solutions to commercial vehicle manufacturers\nProterra Transit:Providing an electric transit bus OEMs\nProterra Energy:Offering turnkey charging and energy management solutions.\n\nThe company's battery systems have been proven in more than 16 million service miles driven by its fleet of transit vehicles and validated through partnerships with commercial vehicle OEMs. Proterra has produced and delivered more than 300 megawatt-hours of battery systems, more than 550 heavy-duty electric transit buses, and installed 54 megawatts of charging systems.\nProterra expected $193 million of revenue in 2020, with an estimated $750 million in existing orders and backlog. It projects $2.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with about 1/3 coming from its Transit business, and 2/3 From Powered & Energy. At ACTC's current stock price of $17.85, Proterra has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nRivian\nRivian (see earlier description in consumer retail) will also compete in the commercial delivery market. It has been working with Amazon (a major investor) to build large electric delivery vans for Prime. Developed specifically for Amazon, a small fleet of Prime vans is on the road now, testing deliveries to customers and gathering feedback. In late fall, it could grow to a large fleet as Rivian ramps up the volume.\nThe EV range of 150 miles is tailored to Amazon's use cycle to optimize the size, weight, and cost of the commercial vehicle. Rivian has three sizes of batteries, but Amazon is starting with just one of them.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nSee the previous summary under consumer retail EV.\nMedium and Long-Haul Trucking EV Companies\nCompanies developing medium- and long-haul EV trucks face a more difficult challenge with battery range. These trucks haul much more weight than commercial delivery vehicles and because they are designed for long distances, they can't stop every 200-300 miles for recharging.\nFor this reason, many of these companies are using unique hybrid technologies for their trucks. The EV trucks in this category are primarily heavy-duty but also include some medium-duty trucks and specialty vehicles. A couple of the companies focus on retrofitting trucks to be electric.\nMedium-Duty Trucks\nThe medium-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 4, 5, and 6:\n\nClass 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.\nClass 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.\nClass 6: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 19,501-26,000 pounds or 8,846-11,793 kilograms.1\n\nHeavy-Duty Trucks\nThe heavy-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 7 and 8:\n\nClass 7: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 26,001 to 33,000 pounds or 11,794-14,969 kilograms.\nClass 8: This class of trucks has a GVWR of greater than 33,001 pounds or 14,969 kilograms and includes all tractor-trailers.\n\nThe Tesla Semi is a battery vehicle planned for a range of 300 or 500 miles and a speed of 60 MPH with 80,000 lbs of cargo. Tesla plans to start shipping the Semi later this year when it expects to have sufficient cell volume to meet its needs with the production of its 4680 battery pack.\nNikola(NASDAQ:NKLA)\nNikola has been a very controversial company. Founded in 2015, it originally had two different strategies. Its primary strategy is to lease fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) Class-8 heavy trucks and provide the refueling infrastructure to corporate customers. Its second strategy was to develop the Badger EV truck using GM technology.\nNikola originally merged with a SPAC to go public, at an enterprise value of approximately $3.3 billion. On June 6th, 2020, its market cap jumped to more than $30 billion, then later it dropped because of problems with its originally planned deal with GM.\nNikola originally expected a deal with General Motors that included the production of the Nikola Badger EV pickup truck. The proposed arrangement was that GM would take a $2 billion equity stake in Nikola and in return would engineer and produce the Badger. In November 2020, GM and Nikola scrapped the original arrangement. Now it appears that GM will supply Nikola with only its Hydrotec hydrogen fuel-cell technology to integrate into the EV manufacturer's commercial class 7 and class 8 zero-emission semi-trucks. So, the Badger is probably dead.\nNikola now sees semi-trucks as the company's \"core business\" and fuel cells as an increasingly important segment of the semi-truck market thanks to their efficiency in weight and consumption. It expects to begin testing by the end of 2021.\nIt has received pre-orders from Anheuser-Busch and a few other companies, but it doesn't expect deliveries until 2023. Hydrogen fueling stations are key to its strategy, both providing a source of revenue and necessary fueling infrastructure for the trucks to operate, but they also cost a lot. In its March 2020 investor deck, Nikola said a single station capable of fueling 210 trucks a day would cost $16.6 million. Its initial planned network of 700 stations would cost roughly $11.6 billion.\nNikola was also accused of misrepresentation, and its executive chairman and founder stepped down.\nAt the time of the SPAC merger, it projected an optimistic forecast of more than $3 billion in revenue by 2024, with a net income of $145 million. Most of that revenue was expected to come from its Badger truck, which is no longer in the plans. Yet its market cap is still almost $6 billion.\nHyliion (HYLN)\nHyliion, founded in 2015 in Austin, went public in October 2020 through the SPAC Tortoise Acquisition Corp. (SHLL). In March 2019, automotive parts manufacturer Dana Inc. made an equity investment into Hyliion, and together they are manufacturing and marketing Class 8 EVs to Dana's customers, including Volvo, Navistar, and Peterbilt.\nHyliion's strategy is unique, and a very different strategy from Nikola. Essentially it generates electricity onboard the truck using compressed natural gas (CNG). This should be a benefit for longer-range trucking. Hyliion's Hypertruck concept involves an all-electric drivetrain utilizing Dana's electric motor, inverter, and axle technologies. The truck's batteries are fueled by onboard tanks of CNG. With some 700 CNG stations already operating nationwide, it believes that there no need to build out expensive superchargers or hydrogen infrastructure.\nKuwait-based logistics company, Agility, has already placed an order for 1,000 Hypertrucks with initial deliveries targeted in 2022. Combined with a fully electric drivetrain and a natural gas-powered onboard generator to recharge the battery, the Hypertruck ERX will provide more than 1,000 miles of range.\nHyliion will eventually compete with Nikola (FCEV) and the Tesla battery-based Semi, but it plans to have a longer range and lower operating costs. Its HyperTruck ERX is expected to be available in 2021. It also has a hybrid-electric truck.\nThe combination with SHLL had an estimated market cap of about $1.5 billion, with approximately $530 million going to the company, including a $325 million fully committed PIPE. At approximately $13.50 per share, its current market cap is approximately $2.2 billion, significantly down from its peak. Hyliion projects $2 billion in revenue in 2024, which it claims is only about 2% of the addressable market.\nXL Fleet (XL)\nXL Fleet is a 10-year old company that went public through the SPAC Pivotal. XL is different because it provides fleet electrification modifications for ICE trucks across a wide range of vehicle classes (class 2-5) and types. It has over 200 of the largest commercial and municipal fleets as customers, with more than 3,200 XL systems deployed and over 130 million miles driven by customers to date. XL's customer base includes FedEx, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Verizon, the City of Boston, Seattle Fire Department, Yale University, and Harvard University.\nXL's business model is essentially retrofitting existing trucks to be hybrids and then later expanding into fully electric truck conversions. It claims to be creating a fully integrated platform for this. It remains to be seen if the retrofitting business will continue to grow or will it diminish when more trucks are designed and manufactured with EV capabilities.\nUnlike some other EV companies that have no revenue yet because they are still developing products, XL is more of a small company doing low-volume retrofits. It had $7.2 million in revenue in 2019, $21 million in 2020, and estimates $76 million in 2021, but it forecasts $1.3 billion in revenue in 2024 in its investor presentation. It plans to do this by expanding its product line from hybrid to plug-in hybrid to fully electric across a broader range of trucks. It claims to have a $220 million sales pipeline for the next 12 months.\nShort-seller, Muddy Waters, claimed after talking to former XL Fleet employees, that it believed the company significantly exaggerated its order backlog, that the return on investment for the company's products was likely negative, and that it would not be able to compete with big car makers on electrification. The company thoroughly refuted these claims.\nThe original enterprise valuation was approximately $1.4 billion at a $10 share price for the merger. Its price jumped by about 35% but has since gone back down to $12.40 for a market cap of about $1.8 billion. Although XL Fleet has revenue and other EV companies don't, this may not be an advantage. It appears to be a small company for many years that has gone public at a high valuation with grand plans. The risks are in its ability to make a jump from $76 million in 2021 to $1.3 billion in 2024, as well as the question about retrofitting being replaced by new EV trucks by then.\nXos (NGAC)\nXos Trucks specializes in the field of manufacturing fully electric commercial vehicles. It features a software platform that is designed to accommodate an extensive variety of medium-duty bodies, wheelbase, and range requirements up to 200 miles. It was founded in 2016 and headquartered in North Hollywood, California. It received $20 million of investment in 2020 and now is going public through a merger with the SPAC ExtGen Acquisition Corporation (NGAC) at an estimated proforma value of $1.965 billion.\nIts focus is on medium- and heavy-duty last mile and return-to-base segments (class 5/6, class 6/7, and class 7/8) commercial fleets and specialty vehicles. Some vehicles are currently in production and in regular on-road operations with key fleet customers, and it claimed 6,000 unit orders in backlog.\nIts MD-platform is for classes 5-6 for pickup and delivery. Its HD X-Platform is an adaptable chassis for highway, vocational, and severe work conditions. Its market is for customers with highly predictable routes that allow for batteries designed for a more limited range. A significantly larger frame and smaller battery pack allow for reduced density.\nXos has a bundled all-in-one offering that allows fleets to access all the tools and services they need to go electric with a single point of contact at a fixed monthly expense.\nXos had $3 million in revenue in 2020 and estimates $14 million in 2021. However, it forecasts $5.2 billion in revenue in 2025. At the current stock price of $10.30, its market cap is approximately $2 billion, about the same as its original SPAC transaction.\nLion Electric (NGA)\nLion Electric is a Canadian company founded by Marc Bédard in 2008. Its focus is to be a leader in designing, developing, and manufacturing purpose-built urban electric vehicles; vehicles that are specifically designed as delivery trucks, refuse trucks, bucket trucks, moving trucks, school buses, and shuttle buses. It has over 300 all-electric vehicles on the road today.\nIn November 2020, it announced that it was going public through the SPAC NGA. The transaction had an estimated pro forma enterprise value of $1.5 billion.\nIt plans on seven new truck models and one new school bus, for a total of 15 all-electric vehicles, representing a full line-up from class 5 to class 8 electric trucks and a full line-up of electric school buses. Its vehicles are produced at its existing manufacturing plant, which has the capacity for the production of up to 2,500 vehicles per year. It intends to open a new plant in the U.S. capable of delivering over 20,000 Lion trucks and buses per year by 2022.\nIts all-electric class 6 and class 8 commercial urban trucks combine power, comfort, and modern technology. Custom-built chassis and cabin designed specifically for an all-electric heavy-duty vehicle. The LionC is an all-electric Type C school bus manufactured in North America. The body and chassis were specifically designed to deliver optimal performance. The LionM is an all-electric midi/minibus that meets paratransit and public transportation requirements. Created and designed specifically for the paratransit market, the is spacious and offers unique features that provide enhanced security and accessibility to the end-users.\nLion Electric had $29 million in revenue in 2020 and expects $204 million in 2021. It forecasts revenue to jump to $3.6 billion a few years later in 2024. Its current market cap is approximately $3.6 billion based on its current stock price of $18.33.\nLightning eMotors (GIK)\nLightning eMotors, formerly Lightning Systems, was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Loveland, Colorado. It provides fleet electrification for familiar commercial vehicle platforms by retrofitting them with its electric powertrains. Lightning eMotors produces electric fleet medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including delivery trucks, shuttle buses, passenger vans, ambulances, bucket trucks, chassis-cab models, and city transit buses. It focuses on urban commercial zero-emission vehicles with a full range of class 3 through class 7 battery-electric and fuel-cell electric vehicles.\nLighting eMotors helps commercial fleets achieve their sustainability goals by offering zero-emission battery-electric vans, trucks, and buses based on familiar, proven vehicles from manufacturers such as Ford and GM. It works with customers, to help them identify their unique commercial electric vehicle, charging, and grant support needs.\nThe Lightning products include integrated all-electric powertrains for the Ford Transit 350HD passenger and cargo vans, Ford E-450 shuttle bus and cutaway models, Ford F-59 step/food van, Ford F-550 cargo trucks and buses, Chevrolet 6500XD Low Cab Forward model, and 30-foot, 35-foot, and 40-foot transit buses.\nLightning has 120 vehicles on the road, and 1,500 vehicles already on order from customers. In addition to making vehicles and powertrains, Lightning also provides a full suite of charging solutions for customers.\nThe deal with GIK has an enterprise value of $650 million, although there is also an Earnout of 20.0% of total pro forma shares outstanding to Lightning eMotors shareholders if the stock crosses certain price thresholds.\nAt the current price, of $11.73, GIK has a market cap of approximately $1 billion, a little more than the original transaction valuation. Similar to XL Fleet, Lightning has the risk that retrofitting may only be an interim business opportunity until more EV trucks are produced.\nPublic Chinese EV Companies\nChina will be the biggest EV market opportunity, and EV start-ups may do better there because there isn't as much entrenched competition from domestic auto companies. China is already the largest EV market in the world, with almost a million EVs sold in 2019. Its EV market represents almost half of the global EV sales volume and is much larger than the U.S. market.\nThe Chinese government has ambitions to become a global leader in new energy vehicles. Soon after the coronavirus outbreak subsided within the country, Chinese authorities announced new policies to support the auto and electric vehicle industries.\nThese Chinese companies are traded through American depository shares (ADS) that contain certain risks. There are financial reporting and transparency risks with these companies, and on top of that, the newer companies are being classified as \"emerging growth\" companies that are already exempt from certain transparency requirements set out in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Like the previous EV stock, these stocks have also been very volatile.\nIn addition to legacy auto manufacturers like BYD, there are also three Chinese EV companies that are publicly traded through American depositary shares.\nBYD Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:BYDDY)\nBYD, which means build your dreams, is the automotive subsidiary of the Chinese multinational BYD Co Ltd. It was founded in January 2003, following BYD Company's acquisition of Tsinchuan Automobile Company. The company produces automobiles, buses, electric bicycles, forklifts, rechargeable batteries, and trucks. The current model range of automobiles includes electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and petrol-engined vehicles. Thirteen years ago, on the advice of his famously skeptical lieutenant, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett made a $232 million investment in BYD, a relatively unknown Chinese car company.\nBy parlaying BYD's rechargeable battery technology into a fast-growing carmaking operation, it gained a foothold in the fledgling electric vehicle market, building longer-lasting batteries and cheaper vehicles than American and Japanese manufacturers were managing to do at the time. In BYD, Buffett and Munger believed they had found a company with a shot at one day becoming the largest player in a global automobile market that was inevitably going electric.\nBYD's start to 2021 was strong with 19,871 plug-in electric cars sold in January in China, including hybrid plug-ins. That was a big increase over 2020 but not as much as 2019.\nLI Auto (LI)\nLixiang, formerly known as Chehejia (\"Car and Home\"), was founded in 2015 and went public in the U.S. on July 30th, 2020. It is a Beijing-based electric-vehicle startup with vertically integrated manufacturing. It designs, researches, manufactures, sells, and offers services featuring a few models of electric vehicles.\nThe company's SUVs are hybrids of a sort. They use electric motors (one on the front axle and one on the rear), but those motors are powered by a combination of a 40.5kWh battery packanda 1.2-liter turbocharged engine paired to a 45-liter fuel tank and a 100kW electric generator, which generates power for the battery pack in real-time. The idea is that the car can be driven for about 100 miles on battery power alone, but it has a total range of nearly 500 miles when leveraging the combustion engine generator.\nThe Company's primary product is an SUV under its brand Li ONE. It also sells peripheral products and provides related services, such as charging stalls, vehicle internet connection services, and extended lifetime warranties. Li Auto is looking to sell a variety of SUVs built on its hybrid technology that range from around $21,000 to about $70,000. The company started shipping its first model in late 2019. It's a midsize SUV is well-appointed and has lots of touchscreens and technology. A full-size premium version is planned for release in 2022.\nDeliveries of Li ONEs were 14,464 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a 67.0% quarter-over-quarter increase and setting a new quarterly record. Deliveries for the full year 2020 reached 32,624 vehicles. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $635 million.\nLI auto went public on July 30th, 2020, raising $1.1 billion at an initial price of $15.50 per share but quickly reached almost $24. It is currently valued at approximately $37 billion at a price of approximately $25.72 per share.\nXPeng (XPEV)\nXiaopeng (XPeng) Motors is a Chinese electric vehicle and technology company that designs and manufactures smart cars. It was founded in 2015 and went public on August 27, 2020, using American depository shares, raising about $1 billion. To date, it has raised about $2.6 billion.\nXPeng aims its EVs at technology-savvy middle-class Chinese consumers, with prices ranging from $22,000 to $45,000 after government subsidies. In some ways, it is a Tesla knock-off at a much lower price. XPeng started production of the G3 in November 2018, and as of July 31, 2020, delivered 18,741. It started production of the P7 and began delivery in May 2020, and as of July 31, 2020, it had delivered 1,966 EVs. The P7 has a range of more than 400 miles. It plans to launch a third Smart EV, a sedan, in 2021. The G3 was among the top-three best-selling electric SUVs in China in 2019.\nXPeng is interesting because it has a platform strategy and is moving aggressively into autonomous driving. It uses a platform strategy to expand product offerings by launching one Smart EV model each year to broaden the addressable market. It builds new models on two highly flexible Smart EV platforms, called David and Edward, respectively. The David platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,600 millimeters to 2,800 millimeters, and the Edward platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,800 millimeters to 3,100 millimeters. It also adopted a platform approach for software systems.\nXPeng claims to be developing an autonomous driving capability for its EVs. The P7 is the first production vehicle to feature the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Xavier system-on-a-chip (SoC) autonomous driving platform. The company's Smart Electric Platform Architecture (SEPA) runs on 2 chips - NVIDIA for the XPILOT and Qualcomm's Snapdragon™ 820A for intelligent services and infotainment, including cameras inside and outside, radars, HD-map, and ultrasonic sensors. Like Tesla, it claims it can create sufficiently-autonomous driving without lidar.\nTo enhance brand recognition and allow more people to experience its Smart EVs, it deployed a small number of Smart EVs in a ride-hailing service in Guangzhou on a trial basis, but it has no current plan to scale up a ride-hailing service.\nXpeng sees first-quarter 2021 deliveries rising 450% year-over-year to 12,500 vehicles. Revenues are expected to increase 533% from a year ago. The company didn't provide bottom-line estimates for the quarter, but will likely post another net loss as it ramps up manufacturing, invests in R&D, and builds out a new manufacturing plant set to open in 2022.\nXpeng reported selling 12,964 vehicles in Q4 2020, up 303% from a year ago. It delivered a total of 27,041 vehicles in 2020, up 112%. It makes the P7 sedan, a rival to the made-in-China Tesla Model 3, and the small G3 SUV.\nThe stock opened on August 27, 2020 at a price of $15 and a valuation of $11 billion, but its stock jumped more than 40% shortly after. Its current valuation is about $35 billion at a stock price of approximately $36.13 per share. It had about $300 million in revenue in 2019 with a loss of about $500 million.\nNio (NIO)\nUnlike previous companies, Nio has been a public company for some time. It originally went public in the U.S. back in September of 2018, selling IPO shares at $6.26 and raising $1 billion.\nNio's IPO was far from smooth. After going public at $6.26 per share, it traded down to nearly $1. Then in the middle of the coronavirus outbreak, Nio received a much-needed investment of $1 billion from investors, including state-backed entities.\nNio designs, jointly manufactures, and sells smart and connected premium electric vehicles, attempting to develop next-generation technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving, and artificial intelligence. Joint manufacturing means that it uses a state-owned contract manufacturer to build its cars.\nNio plans to provide customers with comprehensive, convenient, and innovative charging solutions and other user-centric services. It began deliveries of the ES8, a 7-seater high-performance premium electric SUV in China in June 2018, and its variant, the six-seater ES8, in March 2019. Nio officially launched the ES6, a 5-seater high-performance premium electric SUV, in December 2018 and began deliveries in June 2019. It officially launched the EC6, a 5-seater smart premium electric Coupe SUV, in December 2019 with deliveries in 2020.\nNio sold 17,353 EVs in Q4/2020 and 43,728 for the year. It warned a shortage in chips and batteries will force a production slowdown to 7,500 a month in Q2 from 10,000 vehicles a month in February.\nNio currently trades at more than $43 per share, including a big jump recently, for a valuation of approximately $48 billion. It had revenue of $2.3 billion in 2019 for a loss of $3.8 billion.\nSummary\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this should provide exciting new investment opportunities. However, the investment terrain is complex. There are dozens of new start-ups where the public can now invest that were previously exclusively venture capital investment opportunities. Many of these are following different roads to success. There are legacy auto manufacturers that could prosper or get destroyed in this transition. There are some exciting new EV company opportunities in China. And then there is Tesla.\nThis EV roadmap is intended to help investors explore different roads to investment by explaining the basic strategies for these EV companies. These roads can have different opportunities and risks, and the roadmap helps to frame these. Above all, valuation is an overriding risk that is highlighted throughout this article.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3860258,"gmtCreate":1616475279190,"gmtModify":1680781378679,"authorId":3560139863772426,"author":{"id":3560139863772426,"idStr":"3560139863772426","authorId":3560139863772426,"name":"Jon777","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfb83fe0ad88b21f2f1625bb19368212","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":353153621,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Help comment","text":"Help comment","html":"Help comment"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":353184511,"gmtCreate":1616470104933,"gmtModify":1704794506286,"author":{"id":"3573867170923993","authorId":"3573867170923993","name":"AHLONG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e278677344d99653c443547c0c9bad0","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3573867170923993","authorIdStr":"3573867170923993"},"htmlText":"Looooooong article","listText":"Looooooong article","text":"Looooooong article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353184511","repostId":1196402560,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196402560","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616134696,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196402560?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-19 14:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"New Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196402560","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, an","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>It's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.</li>\n <li>Last October, I wrote a popular article providing a roadmap for investing in electric vehicles, but since then, so much has changed: new entrants, new strategies, fluctuating valuations, etc.</li>\n <li>So, I updated and greatly expanded the previous EV investment roadmap.</li>\n <li>This update includes a deeper look at valuations for 23 EV companies with revenue projections, when available.</li>\n <li>It also classifies these EV companies into their primary market categories and summarizes their different strategies.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb96acc615cba9c7842860658c019ab1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\">Photo by Sven Loeffler/iStock via Getty Images\nMy article&nbsp;Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap&nbsp;published five months ago, was popular, and some followers have requested an update. Many new EV companies entered the market, most of them through SPACs. Valuations fluctuated wildly, and there has been a great deal of publicity around these companies.\nThis new updated EV investment roadmap is greatly expanded. In addition to updating the strategies and progress of companies previously discussed, I expanded the number of companies covered. This article also groups EV companies into their primary markets, enabling better comparisons and evaluation of market opportunities. In addition, it includes a comparative valuation chart showing every company's market cap with a comparison to projected revenue, where possible. This takes advantage (good or bad) of looking at the long-term revenue forecasts provided in SPAC mergers that public companies can't make.\nIn addition to the EV manufacturers discussed here, there are also EV investment opportunities in charging station companies, battery manufacturers, and battery materials companies. These were covered in the original roadmap and may also be updated in a later article.\nApproximately 2 million EVs were sold in 2019, and although the number declined along with all auto sales in 2020, it is forecasted to increase in 2021 and reach 8-10 million by 2025. Some forecast that EV sales will be greater than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2030, or even earlier. The automobile market appears to be moving toward a historical transformation, and exceptional investment gains can be made by anticipating new emerging industries and investing in the eventual winners of those new industries. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)are obvious examples. Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to create a new emerging industry.\nThere are also significant risks. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to be released in the next three years, which will drive rapid growth in EV sales. However, the expected sales from these new models, as well as the increasing expectations from Tesla, most likely exceed the total projected market. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the companies covered here won't exist five years from now. It reminds me of the internet bubble of the late 1990s when scores of internet-based companies went public with little or no revenue. Almost all of these failed within three years -- however, a couple, including Amazon, went on to enormous success.\nEVs provide a major new investment opportunity with high risks. To succeed, you need to have a clear EV investment roadmap.\nSo, how can you invest in this new emerging market? The EV landscape is complex and investment opportunities are varied. While Tesla is the unquestioned leader in EVs, some consider it overvalued and unlikely to show exceptional returns to new investors. The current U.S. legacy automakers are committed to introducing many new EVs in the next few years, and they have some entrenched advantages with volume manufacturing capabilities, a dealer infrastructure, and loyal customers. There are exciting new EV start-ups in the U.S. that have come public this year, mostly through Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), and there are several interesting publicly traded Chinese EV manufacturers.\nThis new roadmap for EV investment classifies companies into three primary markets segments:\n<ul>\n <li>TheConsumer Retailsegment includes EVs sold to consumers individually, such as SUVs, pickup trucks, sedans, etc.</li>\n <li>TheCommercial Deliverysegment includes local delivery EV vans and trucks sold to fleets.</li>\n <li>TheMedium- and Long-Haul Truckingsegment includes heavier Class 4 - Class 8 trucks, as well as special industrial vehicles.</li>\n</ul>\nIn addition, it categorizesLegacy ManufacturersandChinese EV Companies. This enables investors to evaluate investment opportunities by considering unique opportunities within each market segment.\nThere is an enormous amount of investment optimism for EVs, and retail investors have been aggressively buying into EV stocks with seemingly no regard for valuation. Then there is the additional challenge of valuing companies with no revenue, especially those coming public through SPACs. So, valuation is an important investment consideration.\nSo let's start by looking at an overview of comparative EV valuations.\nEV Investment Valuation Overview\nThe following chart summarizes valuations for 23 EV companies, including several legacy companies. For SPACs, market cap estimates are computed using the pro forma number of shares at closing, otherwise using the valuation of the SPAC prior to closing drastically underestimates the valuation, which may be misleading to novice investors. Price/Sales ratios (market cap divided by revenue) are used to compare valuations. As a benchmark, current P/S ratios vary. For example, auto and truck companies have a ratio of 2.7X. Software companies have the highest ratios of over 10X.\nIn the chart, companies that currently have revenue show current P/S ratios. Where projections are available, projected P/S ratios are computed. A note of caution, however. Many of the EV companies came public through SPACs and published their projections (which public companies cannot do), and many of these are likely to prove unrealistic.\nAll of the longer-term revenue projections come from the company (C) forecasts with a SPAC. Some of these may turn out to be accurate, not many are most likely unrealistic. Some, like Lucid, Faraday, and Arrival forecast hitting more than $10 billion in revenue in a few years, when it took Tesla more than 10. Things are different now and they might achieve these, but they could also find that it will take longer to complete development, ramp up production, and create enough customer demand. Many companies may also find that there will be significant capital requirements to achieve this type of growth, and shareholders will be diluted.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc360dfa7de01516b7f68d5962cf3017\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"883\">\nTesla, the \"gold standard\" in EVs, has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, which many people believe is overvalued. Its market cap is approximately 20X 2020 revenue and 10X estimated 2022 revenue.\nTesla (TSLA)\nIn the U.S., and to a lesser extent in China, Tesla is the dominant EV provider. It has approximately 60% of the U.S. EV market and about 20% of the market in China. I own a Tesla and love it, but an investment in Tesla stock requires getting comfortable with its valuation. Tesla has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, although declining lately, which some consider still overvalued while others see upside potential.\nThe investment opportunity with Tesla is based on the expectation that it will continue to dominate the EV market, or at least maintain significant market share, despite much greater competition from the expected introduction of hundreds of new EV models in the next few years.\nThere is a great deal already published about Tesla, so I'll move on.\nLegacy Automakers\nSome people think that the legacy automakers will simply fade away. Historically, that was the case in some other industries, but it is not going to happen to most automakers. They are not standing still waiting to become obsolete. Most have aggressive strategies to replace ICE vehicles with EVs. GM plans to invest $27 billion and build and launch as many as 30 new EV models by 2025. Ford plans to invest $29 billion in EVs by 2025 and launch as many as 16 EVs in the next two years. Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY)has also committed billions to develop new EVs.\nThe competitive advantage that legacy automakers have in selling their new EVs is their dealer network. Will new EV customers prefer to continue going to their regular auto dealer to buy their new EV?\nAlmost all legacy automakers worldwide are developing and launching EVs including Volkswagen, Peugeot, Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi, Hyundai/Kia. Let's look a little more closely at GM and Ford as the leaders in the U.S.\nGeneral Motors (GM)\nGM has committed to introducing 20 new electric vehicles by 2023, including EVs across Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC, and Buick. It recently announced that it has already sold out the first-year production of its Hummer electric pickup. By mid-decade, it expects to sell a million EVs per year in its two largest markets: North America and China. As a reference point, Tesla reported deliveries of 367,500 vehicles globally in 2019.\nGM has a solid platform strategy for its EVs. It plans on building its EVs using five interchangeable drive units and three different motors from its Ultium Drive System platform. Ultium energy options range from 50 to 200 kWh, which could enable an estimated range of up to 400 miles. Most of its EVs will have 400-volt battery packs and up to 200 kW fast-charging capability while the truck platform will have 800-volt battery packs and 350 kW fast-charging capabilities.\nThe key building blocks of the Ultium battery system are large-scale, high-energy cells. Engineered in partnership with LG Energy Solutions, they use both advanced chemistry and a smart cell design that's optimized for a broad portfolio of EVs. GM engineers and scientists are actively researching and testing new elements in battery chemistry to lower costs and improve charge times. Ultium can contain either vertically- or horizontally-stacked cells to integrate into vehicle design: vertically for trucks, SUVs, and crossovers, or horizontally for cars and performance vehicles. As new chemistry is developed and becomes available, the battery management system could digitally update the modules.\nGM also has other EV opportunities with its BrightDrop commercial EV service and its Cruise subsidiary. BrightDrop will not just sell delivery EVs, it will provide an entire service platform for commercial delivery customers. Its set of electric delivery vehicles starts with the EV600 and includes the BrightDrop EP1, a pod-like electric pallet. SeeGeneral Motors' Aggressive EV/AV Strategies May Payoff Big.\nWith its highest stock price of $61.65, GM's current market cap is approximately $89 billion, increasing primarily because of its progress with EVs. This approximately 3X valuation in 2018, but still only 13% of Tesla.\nFord (F)\nFord is also investing heavily in EVs. It just introduced the Mustang Mach-E, a battery-powered crossover with sports car styling, and plans to introduce an all-electric version of its best-selling F-150 pickup later this year. Also, planned is an electric edition of the full-size Transit van, which has been popular in the commercial delivery market. Ford has confirmed plans to build a luxury Lincoln crossover on a battery-powered platform provided by Rivian. The automaker also plans to introduce two new midsize electric crossovers, one each for the Ford and Lincoln brands by 2023.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd8523e15bccc57790940d4218f7b94e\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"1080\">Mustang Mach-E. Source: Ford\nFord's market cap is approximately $51 billion, twice its previous market cap, and also increasing.\nConsumer Retail EV Companies\nThe consumer retail market has some unique characteristics for new EV companies. Sales are made individually, not in fleets. This diversifies the risk upon launch because only a sufficient number of customers need to be attracted to the new EV. A wave of popularity can provide terrific momentum.\nHowever, the lack of a dealer network can be an impediment. Selling EVs directly to consumers instead of through dealers is prohibited in most states. By law, auto manufacturers can't compete with franchised dealers. These are laws that go back many decades to protect dealers. This can be a major impediment for new companies without established independent dealer franchises. So, new AV companies. like Tesla, need to sell their vehicles online. Tesla has successfully done this, but it took a lot of work and time. Lack of a dealer network also creates impediments in service.\nIn addition, over the next 4-5 years, autonomous capabilities will be increasingly important to luxury vehicles. This may prove to be a challenge to start-up EV companies because they can't afford to develop this technology.\nLet's look closer at the alternative consumer retail EV investments.\nLucid Motors (CCIV)\nLucid was founded in 2007 under the name Atieva and originally focused on building electric vehicle batteries and powertrains for other vehicle manufacturers. The company rebranded itself as Lucid Motors in October 2016 and shifted its strategy to develop an all-electric, high-performance, luxury vehicle. Shortly after that, it encountered financial difficulties and struggled to get short-term funding. In 2018 it raised more than $1 billion in investment, primarily from Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund, and gave up a majority of the company.\nLucid Motors reached an agreement to become a publicly-traded company through a merger with the SPAC Churchill Capital IV Corp., in one of the largest deals SPAC EV deals. The combined company, in which Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund will continue to be the largest shareholder, had a transaction equity value of $11.75 billion (for $10/share). At the same time, it closed a PIPE investment priced at $15 a share, giving it an implied pro forma equity value of $24 billion. Rumors about this deal circulated before the transaction was formally announced, making it one of the most anticipated SPAC deals. The hype and speculation drove up the stock price of Churchill Capital IV Corp. from its opening price of $10 a share to almost $60. I believe that some of this may have been driven by novice SPAC investors who didn't realize that the valuation of CCIV didn't include the eventual valuation of Lucid. The share price dropped more than 30% after the details of the deal were announced. It's also likely that Lucid renegotiated the terms of the merger based on the price jump.\nThe company's first product is the Lucid Air, a well-equipped luxury electric vehicle that features 406 miles of projected range and 480 horsepower with a starting price of $77,400, or $69,900 after the U.S. Federal Tax Credit of $7,500. This new Lucid Air model is positioned as a high-performance, ultra-efficient luxury EV sedan in a line of future vehicles that are expected to include Lucid Air Touring, Grand Touring, and Dream Edition versions.\nThe company plans to begin production and deliveries of the Lucid Air in North America in the second half of 2021. Previously the company aimed to begin deliveries earlier in 2021. It intends to sell the car in Europe in 2022, followed by China in 2023. Lucid vehicles will be produced at its new factory in Casa Grande, Arizona. The company plans to expand the factory in phases in the coming years to have the capacity to produce 365,000 units per year at scale. The initial phase of the $700 million factory construction was completed late last year and will have the capacity to produce 30,000 vehicles a year.\nLucid also apparently has a commitment to build an assembly plant in Saudi Arabia, which was rumored to be a condition of the $1 billion investment from the Saudi public fund. The Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund also provided $600 million in bridge financing and invested in the SPAC deal as well. So, while this assembly plant may be expensive and may not be critical, it will most likely need to happen.\nLucid has ambitious plans to achieve $14 billion in revenue in 2025, and its current stock price at $29.17, which gives it a market cap of more than $46 billion, may already reflect those ambitions. Its market cap is roughly the same as Ford.\nFisker (FSR)\nFisker, which had its origins with Fisker Automotive, is an interesting story that ended in bankruptcy. Henrik Fisker originally co-founded Fisker Automotive in 2007. He was responsible for designing many premium cars such as the Aston Martin. Subsequently, Fisker Automotive had to deal with a Tesla lawsuit against Fisker Automotive alleging it stole Tesla's technology, a controversial $528.7 million conditional loan from the Department of Energy, a recall of its battery produced by A123, and the loss of several hundred vehicles in hurricane Sandy. Henrik Fisker resigned in March 2013 because of disagreements over business strategy and in November 2013, Fisker filed its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case.\nHowever, Henrik Fisker retained the Fisker brand and trademarks, and in 2016 he started another electric vehicle company named Fisker Inc. with the Fisker brand and trademarks. In 2019, Fisker shifted from developing a sports car with a solid-state battery to the Ocean SUV featuring a lithium-ion battery, which it later abandoned for a solid-state battery.\nFisker is positioning itself in a unique segment for those who want the most environmentally friendly EV. While this may be an early growth segment for EVs, it's difficult to estimate its eventual competitive advantage and the size of this environmentally-friendly market segment.\nThe Ocean is a crossover made of recycled metal and plastic with an expected base price of $37,499, and an expected lease of less than $400 a month. Fisker's plan is essentially a lease-only business model that lets customers keep a vehicle for years or return it at any time. It aims to source motors, batteries, and other components from technical partnerships with automakers and will outsource production from existing auto plants. Fisker is currently taking reservations at $250 for the Ocean. It also announced an agreement with Foxconn to jointly develop a vehicle pioneering a new market segment to be sold globally under the Fisker brand commencing in Q4 2023. at the end of 2022. Production will start at Magna Steyr's manufacturing facilities in Europe. At the end of February 2021, it had 12,467 cancellable reservations.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/924a617c90fc3276d7bdab8c64ebfdcf\" tg-width=\"744\" tg-height=\"389\">Fisker Ocean. Source: Fisker\nFisker went public using a SPAC (Spartan Energy). The original combination with SPAQ in October 2020 was valued at $2.9 billion with a cash investment of approximately $1 billion. The stock currently trades at approximately $21 per share, after reaching a high of $28.50, from the original price of $10, which is a market cap of $4.6 billion. Fisker projects $3.3 billion in revenue in 2023. It had almost $1 billion in cash at the end of 2020 and expected to use almost half of this in 2021: $250 million on operating expenses and $250 million in capital investments. If the Ocean is delayed into 2023, Fisker risks missing its revenue objective and will potentially need additional cash to complete development and launch.\nFaraday Future (PSAC)\nFaraday Future was originally established in May 2014 by Chinese businessman Jia Yueting. It is headquartered in Los Angeles and has offices in Silicon Valley, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu. Faraday Future also had a turbulent history. In 2016, it struggled financially, and in 2017 some key executives departed over a dispute about financial issues. They later founded Canoo.\nIn December 2018 the company announced layoffs due to a cash crunch and financial troubles. The company's founder Jia Yueting filed for personal bankruptcy in the United States' federal court in Delaware on October 14, 2019. Following Jia's personal bankruptcy, he decided to step down from his role as CEO of Faraday Future in order to assume a new position as the Chief Product and User Officer. He was replaced as CEO by Carsten Breitfeld, the former CEO at rival electric vehicle startup Byton.\nSomehow, Faraday was able to raise $2.3 billion in private funding over 5 rounds from a variety of investors. In early 2018, it received $1.5 billion in funding from an undisclosed investor from Hong Kong.\nFaraday's flagship product offering will be the FF 91, featuring 1,050 HP, 0-60 mph in less than 2.4 seconds, zero gravity seats with the largest 60-degree reclining angles, and a user experience designed to create a mobile, connected, and luxurious living space. The FF 91 is targeted to launch in 2022.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e38bfb3211c72bb73bc26f2ebe296fe\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"854\">FF 91. Source: Faraday Future\nIts strategic partners include one of China's top three OEMs and a critical Chinese city, which the company believes will help establish its presence in the Chinese vehicle market.\nFaraday Future plans several cars based on its Variable Platform Architecture. FF 91 is the first production vehicle and flagship model. Pricing will range between $120,000 and upwards of $200,000, which places it against formidable opponents. Faraday Future is already looking forward to expanding its range with a pair of smaller models named FF 81 and FF 71. The FF 81 is planned to be priced at $75,000 to 95,000 with a 2023 release. The FF 71 is planned to be priced at $45,000 to $65,000 with a planned release of 2024.\nThe Primary Manufacturing Facility for FF 91 is in Hanford, CA with contract manufacturing for future models in Gunsan, South Korea.\nFaraday Future is planning high-Level automation with a Level-3 capable system using a redundant safety architecture based on NVIDIA Xavier System-on-a-chip. It will be capable of highway auto-drive and hardware ready for advanced auto-drive. It is targeting full autonomous valet parking &amp; summon in any parking lot or structure. Eventually, it expects full auto-drive, including full 360˚ sensor coverage for advanced auto-drive &amp; auto-park features.\nIn January 2021, Faraday Future announced that the company would go public through a reverse merger with the special purpose acquisition company Property Solutions Acquisition Corp. (PSAC). The combined company will be valued at $3.4 billion. Faraday Future is expected to set up contract manufacturing operations in China through their partnership with Geely. Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn is also expected to serve as an additional strategic partner.\nFaraday Future projects $10.5 billion in revenue in 2024 and $21.5 billion in 2025. Revenue is expected to start in 2022 with the delivery of 2,400 vehicles for $504 million. Most likely these projections could prove to be optimistic. At a current stock price of approximately $12.80, it has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nLordstown Motors (RIDE)\nLordstown Motors based in Lordstown, Ohio, was originally founded in 2018 by Steve Burns, the former CEO of Workhorse Group. The company licensed technology from Workhorse in return for royalties and a 10% ownership. Lordstown is named after the famous GM Lordstown manufacturing plant, which it acquired in November 2019 in an unusual transaction. GM announced that it was closing the plant and was under a great deal of pressure for that decision. So, GM \"sold\" the plant to a company that was renamed Lordstown for an estimated $20 million that it loaned to the acquiring company. Subsequently, the sale was redefined to be part of a $75 million investment by GM, of which $50 million was an in-kind exchange for the plant.\nLordstown went public through the SPAC DiamondPeak Holdings Corp. in 2020. It currently has more than 400 employees.\nIts first product is the Lordstown Endurance, a full-sized EV pickup truck. Lordstown is positioning Endurance for the pickup fleet market segment. The expected price is $52,000+, and it claimed to have more than 100,000 pre-orders by January 2021. However, a recent research article published by a short seller claimed \"Our research has revealed that Lordstown's order book consists of fake or entirely non-binding orders, from customers that generally do not even have fleets of vehicles.\" Lordstown is disputing that article.\nIt believes the fleet pickup market segment is underserved with no current EV-focused competition. It estimates that the full-sized pick-up truck fleet market is 1.2 million vehicles per year in the U.S., but it's more fragmented than other truck fleets. Pickup \"fleets\" tend to be much smaller and local, so there may not be much of a market distinction for a small company buying several EV pickups from a traditional auto dealer. About half of the total U.S. pickup market is classified as fleet sales, meaning more than one.\nEven though Lordstown is targeting the commercial fleet market, it is a similar product to the Ford EV F-150. So I classify it in the consumer EV category. It is a class 2 vehicle. Lordstown also may enter the SUV market in the longer-term.\nThe Endurance will compete against future models from Rivian and Tesla, as well as Ford and GM in ICE pick-ups and their upcoming EV pick-ups. Ford plans on selling its EV F-150 in mid-2022. Initial production of the Endurance is expected in the second half of 2021, so it may have a short market advantage. Nevertheless, it forecasts selling 65,000 vehicles in 2023 and 107,000 in 2024. These estimates could be a large percentage of the EV pick-up market in those years.\nAt the SPAC merger, the implied valuation for Lordstown was $1.6 billion, including a $500 million PIPE and the $75 million by GM. Lordstown's financial projections appear to be aggressive. It projects to start shipping the Endurance in late 2021 with projected revenue in 2022 of $1.7 billion, increasing to $5.8 billion in 2024. Its stock price at approximately $13.60 values the company at a market cap of approximately $2.2 billion. The value of the company depends on the likelihood of achieving its projections.\nA fleet sales strategy makes sense for Lordstown since it would be too expensive to build a retail sales and service capability. However, it's not clear that this will become a distinct competitive advantage. Some small fleets may still prefer to buy their EV pickups from established local dealers with service capabilities.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nCanoo started as Evelozcity in 2017 and rebranded as Canoo in the spring of 2019. Canoo is a Los Angeles-based company that develops electric vehicles. It has over 350 employees. Canoo has designed a modular electric platform purpose-built to deliver maximum vehicle interior space, which is adaptable to support a wide range of vehicle applications for consumers and businesses. Canoo expects to launch its first consumer model in 2022, simply named the Canoo that will be available by subscription, followed shortly after by a multi-purpose delivery vehicle and a sports vehicle, each built off of the same underlying platform. Canoo went public using a SPAC (Hennessy Capital Acquisition) and now trades as GOEV.\nCanoo's all-electric skateboard-like platform is designed to support both consumer retail and commercial vehicle configurations. The EV leverages Canoo's flat skateboard architecture for a high level of usable interior space. Its commercial vehicle program, expected in 2023, addresses a projected $50B+ last-mile delivery market with an EV platform that maximizes cargo volume.\nHyundai Motor Group said it would jointly develop an electric vehicle platform with the company.\nCanoo's platform strategy is interesting. It could be used as an EV platform for custom fleets of delivery vehicles. It has no AV development, but it claims to be \"AV Ready\" which could be useful for AV companies wanting to build custom AV delivery fleets.\nIts all-electric multi-purpose delivery vehicle is expected to be priced starting at approximately $33,000. It is based on Canoo's proprietary electric platform and will be offered in two initial size variants, with others to follow. Limited availability will begin in 2022, with scaled production and launch planned for 2023. Customers can pre-order the multi-purpose delivery vehicle for a refundable deposit of $100 per vehicle\nIt plans to offer two multi-purpose delivery vehicles: the MPDV1 and the larger MPDV2. The first has a 200-foot cargo volume and a range of 130-200 miles. It offers more capacity than today's ICE delivery vehicles at an affordable price with urban mobility enabled by a space-efficient footprint. The vehicle is also designed to fit within many height-restricted areas like parking garages.\nThe MPDV2 has a cargo volume of 450 feet and a range of 90-190 miles. Its roof and step-in height enable individuals to easily walk-in the vehicle and accommodate a standing position while inside.\nThe original SPAC transaction provided approximately $600 million, with a pro forma equity value of approximately $2.4 billion. Like other SPAC mergers, its stock price has fluctuated. It currently trades at about $15.90 per share for a market cap of approximately $3.7 billion. Canoo projects $2.0 billion in revenue in 2025 from about $500 million in engineering services, $1.2 billion from its consumer vehicle subscriptions, and the remainder from its commercial program. Canoo expects revenue of more than $300 million in 2022 after the launch of its lifestyle consumer vehicle.\nSince its first products are aimed at consumers, as is most of its forecasted 2025 revenue, I categorize it primarily as a consumer EV company. However, I think the design of that Canoo vehicle may not attract enough customers. More importantly, its subscription service way of selling its EV to consumers is risky. I think it has more potential in the commercial market, however, a dual strategy (consumer and commercial) is challenging. I like its skateboard platform design and that could prove to be a competitive advantage.\nRivian\nAlthough not yet public, I include Rivian because it has plans for an IPO as soon as Sept 2021, although it could slip into 2022. There are rumors that the company is targeting a market valuation of approximately $50B. Rivian has already raised more than $8 billion to date from Amazon, Ford, T. Rowe Price, and others.\nRivian has developed and vertically integrated a connected electric platform that can be flexibly applied to a range of applications, including the company's adventure products, as well as B2B products such as the Amazon last-mile delivery vans. The company's initial products, the R1T and R1S, provide a combination of performance, off-road capability, and utility. These vehicles will be produced at Rivian's manufacturing plant in Normal, Ill., with customer deliveries expected to begin in summer 2021. The launch of the R1S three-row electric SUV will follow in August.\nAdditional lower-priced models are being planned. The expected R2 series would include at least two smaller electric vehicles to coincide with the smaller platform, then another platform for R3.\nCommercial Delivery EV Companies\nEV truck companies differ based on the type of truck they are developing. The technology and markets are very different, so I separate them into two categories. The first category includes commercial delivery vehicles.\nCompanies making EV delivery vehicles have some major advantages that could make them good investments. First, delivery vehicles typically travel less than 250 miles during a day, so they can be conveniently recharged overnight. Secondly, they are typically sold in large quantities to fleets. This means that building a retail sales infrastructure is not necessary. It only requires a small salesforce. In addition, maintenance can also be provided at the fleet's operational center, so not as many service centers are required.\nThe disadvantage in this market is that there are a relatively small number of customers that buy in large volumes, so if the EV manufacturer can't get enough large customers, they may not be able to stay in business. GM estimates the combined market opportunity for parcel and food delivery, as well as reverse logistics, in the U.S. will be more than $850 billion by 2025.\nThe commercial market is expected to be a major growth area for EVs. Other start-up automakers like Rivian as well as legacy automakers such as Ford, Daimler, and GM have announced plans to enter the segment. GM recently announced its BrightDrop ecosystem for commercial customers that includes an all-new electric delivery van, the EV600 available by the end of 2021, as well as an integrated autonomous pallet and related services.\nThis group of EV companies focuses primarily on commercial delivery. In general, these are in the light-duty trucks category, although it also includes some medium-duty trucks. This generally includes the following commercial truck classes:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 1: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 0-6,000 pounds or 0-2,722 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 2: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 6,001-10,000 pounds or 2,722-4,536 kilograms.1</li>\n <li>Class 3: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 10,001-14,000 pounds or 4,536-6,350 kilograms.</li>\n</ul>\nIt can also include somewhat larger medium-duty EV delivery trucks:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.</li>\n</ul>\nEV delivery trucks also have an advantage over ICE vehicles because they can have a greater delivery storage space. Smaller buses and transit vehicles are also included in this category.\nLast-mile package delivery is not an immediate-term autonomous vehicle opportunity because it requires a delivery person to be on the truck anyway.\nWorkhorse Group (WKHS)\nWorkhorse has been a public company for ten years. Originally AMP Electric Vehicles, it was established in 2007 as a developmental-stage vehicle electrification company, focusing on conversions. AMP Electric Vehicles went public in 2010 trading on the OTC market under the AMPD symbol. When the economic benefits of conversion became less certain, it pivoted away from passenger vehicles and began to focus on electrifying commercial vehicles. AMP acquired the Workhorse brand and the Workhorse custom chassis assembly plant in Union City. In March of 2013, AMP formally changed its name to Workhorse Group Incorporated.\nThe Company designs and builds a last-mile delivery electric vehicle. The C-Series EVs cover the larger size of commercial delivery vehicles in Classes 3-5. As part of its solutions, it also develops cloud-based, real-time telematics performance monitoring systems. It sells its vehicles to fleet customers directly and through its primary distributor, Ryder Systems. It is currently focused on bringing the C-Series electric delivery truck to market and fulfilling the existing backlog of orders.\nThe C-Series looks like a viable EV replacement for the 350,000 last-mile delivery vehicles sold in the U.S. annually. It recently announced an increased driving range from 100 miles to 160, which should open more market opportunities. It has a viable short-term go-to-market strategy selling fleets to delivery companies. It currently has test vehicles with UPS, DHL, FedEx, Amazon, and Walmart.\nWorkhorse recently lost out on the United States Postal Services Next Generation Delivery Vehicle project, however, it is in the process of challenging this decision. Additionally, its investment in Lordstown also provides an indirect investment opportunity. On November 7, 2019, the Company entered a transaction with Lordstown Motors to grant LMC a perpetual and worldwide license to certain intellectual property relating to its W-15 electric pickup truck platform and related technology in exchange for royalties, equity interest (approximately 10%) in LMC, and other considerations. This was a $320 million asset for Workhorse at the end of 2020.\nWorkhorse received a significant increase in orders in Q4/2020 but built just seven trucks in the fourth quarter due to production systems and supply chain issues. Workhorse plans to continue to take it slow, striving to build three of its composite-body battery-electric trucks a day in March with a plan to reach 10 trucks a day by the end of June. This makes its original 2021 goal of producing 1,800 trucks unlikely. It partnered with Hitachi and Hitachi Capital America (\"HCA\") to improve the Company's manufacturing, operational, and supply chain capabilities as well as to develop a national dealer network to support Workhorse's sales with vehicle financing options for both dealers and customers.\nWorkhorse has a market cap of approximately $1.9 billion. While Workhorse had ongoing revenue, unlike many other new EV companies, its revenue is still insignificant. It had a revenue of $1.4 million in 2020 and $377,000 in 2019. It has a backlog of over 8,000 vehicles but doesn't expect to be able to build many of those in 2021. It raised $270 million in capital over several financings, providing the Company with additional capital to build its backlog. It had cash of $215 million as of March 1, 2021. Because Workhorse is a traditional public company, it hasn't made long-term financial projections like SPAC-based companies.\nElectric Last Mile (FIII)\nElectric Last Mile, based in Troy Michigan, was founded by Jason Luo, former CEO of Ford China before it was acquired by China's Ningbo Joyson Electronic for $920 million in 2016, including James Taylor, former CEO of GM's Hummer brand and former CEO of electric car maker Karma Automotive. Taylor serves as the company's top executive with Luo as the company's chairman.\nThe company plans to launch a small electric delivery van (class 1-2), called the UD-1, in the third quarter of 2021, and then introduce an Urban Utility vehicle (Class 2-3) in 2022. These are expected to compete with Workhorse, Rivian, Canoo, as well as the Ford eTransit and the GMC BV1, none of which is expected to be a Class 1 vehicle.\nThe company says it has 30,000 preorders for its van, representing more than $1 billion in sales. Electric Last Miles vehicles will be based on Sokon's commercial van made in China through a joint venture with Dongfeng Automobile Co Ltd. in order to accelerate development time.\nElectric Last Mile (ELM) is expected to manufacture the vans in a former General Motors Co. Hummer plant in Mishawaka, Ind., that the company is acquiring from China's Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co. Ltd. The plant has the capacity to produce 100,000 vehicles annually with plans to build approximately 4,000 UD-1 vans by the end of 2021. The UD-1 has a starting price of $32,500 and a range of 150 miles. The battery for the vehicle is expected to be supplied by the Chinese battery company CATL.\nELM believes that it has a competitive advantage because its first vehicle, the ELM Urban Delivery, is scheduled to be available in 2021. It is based on a proven, existing platform developed and sold by Sokon Group in the Asian market, where there are 30,000 of these electric delivery vehicles driving 1.5 million miles every day. At the close of the business combination, ELM will be an independent, U.S. company producing electric vehicles in the U.S. with Sokon Group providing access to its know-how, parts supply, and field and service data.\nELM expects that the Urban Delivery vehicle will be the first electric delivery vehicle coming to market in the class 1 category (GVW of 6,000 lbs or less) in the U.S. It will also have 35% more carrying volume compared to similar ICE delivery vehicles, a critical part of the value proposition. It also anticipates that its price and greater carrying volume will allow it to take market share from the class 2 category of vehicles as well.\nIts crossover product portfolio strategy targets commercial delivery vehicles spanning from class 1 to class 3, which represents over 80% of the last mile market.\nELM anticipates $122 million in revenue in 2021, rapidly increasing to $3 billion in 2025. The price of FIII stock increased immediately following its announcement with Electric Last Mile, rising more than 40% to $14.50, but now it has dropped closer to the original deal price to $10.25 for a market cap of approximately $1.5 billion.\nGreenPower Motor Company (GP)\nGreenPower Motor Company Inc. is a Canadian battery-electric bus manufacturer with multiple models of high- and low-floor vehicles, including transit buses, school buses, and shuttles. GreenPower offers commercial vehicles for delivery, public transit, schools, vanpooling, micro-transit, shuttles, and is developing a capability of autonomous operation. It went public on August 28, 2020.\nIn 2014 GreenPower launched its first purpose-built, battery-electric bus, the EV350, 40-foot transit bus. GreenPower received its first order in 2017 for ten EV350s from the City of Porterville, California.\nGreenPower's electric buses are purpose-built and designed to be all-electric, allowing it to put the battery and propulsion system in optimized locations that provide weight and structural advantages. Its primary EV is the EV Star with more than 120 vehicles delivered. It comes in several variations:\n<ul>\n <li>EV Star - Up to 19 passengers</li>\n <li>EV Star Plus - Up to 24 passengers</li>\n <li>EV Star ADA - Passenger and curbside lift for ADA</li>\n <li>EV Star Cargo - 5,000 pounds of load</li>\n <li>EV Star Cargo Plus - 570 cubic feet of cargo space.</li>\n</ul>\nIts EV school bus seats up to 90 students and has a range of up to 150 miles.\nGreenPower had revenue of $13.5 million in 2020 It has about $21 million in cash. It's an interesting alternative since it is already shipping EVs, has revenue, and also has a lower market cap of less than $1 billion. Since it did a traditional IPO, it hasn't published longer-term financial forecasts.\nArrival (CIIC)\nArrival was founded in 2015 in London to make a variety of commercial electric vehicles. It has approximately 1,200 employees across 11 cities in 8 countries. In November 2020, Arrival and the SPAC CIIG entered into a business combination agreement with an implied valuation of $5.39 billion.\nArrival plans on releasing four commercial EVs over the next few years.\n<ul>\n <li>Q4/2021: An electric bus for 8-125 passengers and a range of 240-400km</li>\n <li>Q3/2022: An electric delivery van with a payload of 975-2,000kg and a range of 150-340km</li>\n <li>2022: A larger electric van with a payload of 4,000 kg and a range of 190-400km</li>\n <li>2023: a small vehicle platform with a range of 100-300km.</li>\n</ul>\nThis mix provides a nice diversified portfolio of EVs. Arrival claims to have received orders from UPS for 10,000 vans. It plans a unique flexible manufacturing approach using micro-factories with each projected to manufacture 10,000 vans per year. All of its vehicles use a modular skateboard electric platform.\nArrival ambitiously projects $14.1 billion in revenue in 2024. Half of that revenue is expected from delivery vans, 22% from buses, and the rest from the large van and its small vehicle platform. With CIIC's stock price at $24.80 per share, Arrival's current market cap is relatively high at approximately $15.0 billion. Justifying its market cap depends on its ability to release, sell, and produce its four commercial EVs.\nProterra (ACTC)\nProterra is a commercial electric vehicle company with over a decade of production experience. The Company has designed an end-to-end, flexible technology platform that claims to deliver higher performance and a low total cost of ownership to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end customers.\nProterra, Inc., was originally founded in Golden, Colorado, by Dale Hill in 2004. Later the company wanted to take the lead in creating zero-emission, U.S.-based transit buses. In 2010 it moved its manufacturing plant from Golden, Colorado to Greenville, South Carolina. In 2015, Proterra was awarded a $3 million grant from the California Energy Commission to fund the design, development, and construction of the company's battery-electric transit bus manufacturing line in the City of Industry, California. It moved its headquarters from Greenville, South Carolina, to Burlingame, California, in October 2015. Proterra raised more than $600 million in funding.\nIt is going public through the SPAC ArcLight (ACTC) with a pro forma valuation of $1.6 billion. Upon completion of the transaction, Proterra expects to have up to $825 million in cash to fund growth initiatives, including R&amp;D and the expansion of its next-generation battery program.\nProterra has three complementary businesses:\n<ul>\n <li>Proterra Powered: Delivering battery systems and electrification solutions to commercial vehicle manufacturers</li>\n <li>Proterra Transit:Providing an electric transit bus OEMs</li>\n <li>Proterra Energy:Offering turnkey charging and energy management solutions.</li>\n</ul>\nThe company's battery systems have been proven in more than 16 million service miles driven by its fleet of transit vehicles and validated through partnerships with commercial vehicle OEMs. Proterra has produced and delivered more than 300 megawatt-hours of battery systems, more than 550 heavy-duty electric transit buses, and installed 54 megawatts of charging systems.\nProterra expected $193 million of revenue in 2020, with an estimated $750 million in existing orders and backlog. It projects $2.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with about 1/3 coming from its Transit business, and 2/3 From Powered &amp; Energy. At ACTC's current stock price of $17.85, Proterra has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nRivian\nRivian (see earlier description in consumer retail) will also compete in the commercial delivery market. It has been working with Amazon (a major investor) to build large electric delivery vans for Prime. Developed specifically for Amazon, a small fleet of Prime vans is on the road now, testing deliveries to customers and gathering feedback. In late fall, it could grow to a large fleet as Rivian ramps up the volume.\nThe EV range of 150 miles is tailored to Amazon's use cycle to optimize the size, weight, and cost of the commercial vehicle. Rivian has three sizes of batteries, but Amazon is starting with just one of them.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nSee the previous summary under consumer retail EV.\nMedium and Long-Haul Trucking EV Companies\nCompanies developing medium- and long-haul EV trucks face a more difficult challenge with battery range. These trucks haul much more weight than commercial delivery vehicles and because they are designed for long distances, they can't stop every 200-300 miles for recharging.\nFor this reason, many of these companies are using unique hybrid technologies for their trucks. The EV trucks in this category are primarily heavy-duty but also include some medium-duty trucks and specialty vehicles. A couple of the companies focus on retrofitting trucks to be electric.\nMedium-Duty Trucks\nThe medium-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 4, 5, and 6:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 6: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 19,501-26,000 pounds or 8,846-11,793 kilograms.1</li>\n</ul>\nHeavy-Duty Trucks\nThe heavy-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 7 and 8:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 7: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 26,001 to 33,000 pounds or 11,794-14,969 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 8: This class of trucks has a GVWR of greater than 33,001 pounds or 14,969 kilograms and includes all tractor-trailers.</li>\n</ul>\nThe Tesla Semi is a battery vehicle planned for a range of 300 or 500 miles and a speed of 60 MPH with 80,000 lbs of cargo. Tesla plans to start shipping the Semi later this year when it expects to have sufficient cell volume to meet its needs with the production of its 4680 battery pack.\nNikola(NASDAQ:NKLA)\nNikola has been a very controversial company. Founded in 2015, it originally had two different strategies. Its primary strategy is to lease fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) Class-8 heavy trucks and provide the refueling infrastructure to corporate customers. Its second strategy was to develop the Badger EV truck using GM technology.\nNikola originally merged with a SPAC to go public, at an enterprise value of approximately $3.3 billion. On June 6th, 2020, its market cap jumped to more than $30 billion, then later it dropped because of problems with its originally planned deal with GM.\nNikola originally expected a deal with General Motors that included the production of the Nikola Badger EV pickup truck. The proposed arrangement was that GM would take a $2 billion equity stake in Nikola and in return would engineer and produce the Badger. In November 2020, GM and Nikola scrapped the original arrangement. Now it appears that GM will supply Nikola with only its Hydrotec hydrogen fuel-cell technology to integrate into the EV manufacturer's commercial class 7 and class 8 zero-emission semi-trucks. So, the Badger is probably dead.\nNikola now sees semi-trucks as the company's \"core business\" and fuel cells as an increasingly important segment of the semi-truck market thanks to their efficiency in weight and consumption. It expects to begin testing by the end of 2021.\nIt has received pre-orders from Anheuser-Busch and a few other companies, but it doesn't expect deliveries until 2023. Hydrogen fueling stations are key to its strategy, both providing a source of revenue and necessary fueling infrastructure for the trucks to operate, but they also cost a lot. In its March 2020 investor deck, Nikola said a single station capable of fueling 210 trucks a day would cost $16.6 million. Its initial planned network of 700 stations would cost roughly $11.6 billion.\nNikola was also accused of misrepresentation, and its executive chairman and founder stepped down.\nAt the time of the SPAC merger, it projected an optimistic forecast of more than $3 billion in revenue by 2024, with a net income of $145 million. Most of that revenue was expected to come from its Badger truck, which is no longer in the plans. Yet its market cap is still almost $6 billion.\nHyliion (HYLN)\nHyliion, founded in 2015 in Austin, went public in October 2020 through the SPAC Tortoise Acquisition Corp. (SHLL). In March 2019, automotive parts manufacturer Dana Inc. made an equity investment into Hyliion, and together they are manufacturing and marketing Class 8 EVs to Dana's customers, including Volvo, Navistar, and Peterbilt.\nHyliion's strategy is unique, and a very different strategy from Nikola. Essentially it generates electricity onboard the truck using compressed natural gas (CNG). This should be a benefit for longer-range trucking. Hyliion's Hypertruck concept involves an all-electric drivetrain utilizing Dana's electric motor, inverter, and axle technologies. The truck's batteries are fueled by onboard tanks of CNG. With some 700 CNG stations already operating nationwide, it believes that there no need to build out expensive superchargers or hydrogen infrastructure.\nKuwait-based logistics company, Agility, has already placed an order for 1,000 Hypertrucks with initial deliveries targeted in 2022. Combined with a fully electric drivetrain and a natural gas-powered onboard generator to recharge the battery, the Hypertruck ERX will provide more than 1,000 miles of range.\nHyliion will eventually compete with Nikola (FCEV) and the Tesla battery-based Semi, but it plans to have a longer range and lower operating costs. Its HyperTruck ERX is expected to be available in 2021. It also has a hybrid-electric truck.\nThe combination with SHLL had an estimated market cap of about $1.5 billion, with approximately $530 million going to the company, including a $325 million fully committed PIPE. At approximately $13.50 per share, its current market cap is approximately $2.2 billion, significantly down from its peak. Hyliion projects $2 billion in revenue in 2024, which it claims is only about 2% of the addressable market.\nXL Fleet (XL)\nXL Fleet is a 10-year old company that went public through the SPAC Pivotal. XL is different because it provides fleet electrification modifications for ICE trucks across a wide range of vehicle classes (class 2-5) and types. It has over 200 of the largest commercial and municipal fleets as customers, with more than 3,200 XL systems deployed and over 130 million miles driven by customers to date. XL's customer base includes FedEx, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Verizon, the City of Boston, Seattle Fire Department, Yale University, and Harvard University.\nXL's business model is essentially retrofitting existing trucks to be hybrids and then later expanding into fully electric truck conversions. It claims to be creating a fully integrated platform for this. It remains to be seen if the retrofitting business will continue to grow or will it diminish when more trucks are designed and manufactured with EV capabilities.\nUnlike some other EV companies that have no revenue yet because they are still developing products, XL is more of a small company doing low-volume retrofits. It had $7.2 million in revenue in 2019, $21 million in 2020, and estimates $76 million in 2021, but it forecasts $1.3 billion in revenue in 2024 in its investor presentation. It plans to do this by expanding its product line from hybrid to plug-in hybrid to fully electric across a broader range of trucks. It claims to have a $220 million sales pipeline for the next 12 months.\nShort-seller, Muddy Waters, claimed after talking to former XL Fleet employees, that it believed the company significantly exaggerated its order backlog, that the return on investment for the company's products was likely negative, and that it would not be able to compete with big car makers on electrification. The company thoroughly refuted these claims.\nThe original enterprise valuation was approximately $1.4 billion at a $10 share price for the merger. Its price jumped by about 35% but has since gone back down to $12.40 for a market cap of about $1.8 billion. Although XL Fleet has revenue and other EV companies don't, this may not be an advantage. It appears to be a small company for many years that has gone public at a high valuation with grand plans. The risks are in its ability to make a jump from $76 million in 2021 to $1.3 billion in 2024, as well as the question about retrofitting being replaced by new EV trucks by then.\nXos (NGAC)\nXos Trucks specializes in the field of manufacturing fully electric commercial vehicles. It features a software platform that is designed to accommodate an extensive variety of medium-duty bodies, wheelbase, and range requirements up to 200 miles. It was founded in 2016 and headquartered in North Hollywood, California. It received $20 million of investment in 2020 and now is going public through a merger with the SPAC ExtGen Acquisition Corporation (NGAC) at an estimated proforma value of $1.965 billion.\nIts focus is on medium- and heavy-duty last mile and return-to-base segments (class 5/6, class 6/7, and class 7/8) commercial fleets and specialty vehicles. Some vehicles are currently in production and in regular on-road operations with key fleet customers, and it claimed 6,000 unit orders in backlog.\nIts MD-platform is for classes 5-6 for pickup and delivery. Its HD X-Platform is an adaptable chassis for highway, vocational, and severe work conditions. Its market is for customers with highly predictable routes that allow for batteries designed for a more limited range. A significantly larger frame and smaller battery pack allow for reduced density.\nXos has a bundled all-in-one offering that allows fleets to access all the tools and services they need to go electric with a single point of contact at a fixed monthly expense.\nXos had $3 million in revenue in 2020 and estimates $14 million in 2021. However, it forecasts $5.2 billion in revenue in 2025. At the current stock price of $10.30, its market cap is approximately $2 billion, about the same as its original SPAC transaction.\nLion Electric (NGA)\nLion Electric is a Canadian company founded by Marc Bédard in 2008. Its focus is to be a leader in designing, developing, and manufacturing purpose-built urban electric vehicles; vehicles that are specifically designed as delivery trucks, refuse trucks, bucket trucks, moving trucks, school buses, and shuttle buses. It has over 300 all-electric vehicles on the road today.\nIn November 2020, it announced that it was going public through the SPAC NGA. The transaction had an estimated pro forma enterprise value of $1.5 billion.\nIt plans on seven new truck models and one new school bus, for a total of 15 all-electric vehicles, representing a full line-up from class 5 to class 8 electric trucks and a full line-up of electric school buses. Its vehicles are produced at its existing manufacturing plant, which has the capacity for the production of up to 2,500 vehicles per year. It intends to open a new plant in the U.S. capable of delivering over 20,000 Lion trucks and buses per year by 2022.\nIts all-electric class 6 and class 8 commercial urban trucks combine power, comfort, and modern technology. Custom-built chassis and cabin designed specifically for an all-electric heavy-duty vehicle. The LionC is an all-electric Type C school bus manufactured in North America. The body and chassis were specifically designed to deliver optimal performance. The LionM is an all-electric midi/minibus that meets paratransit and public transportation requirements. Created and designed specifically for the paratransit market, the is spacious and offers unique features that provide enhanced security and accessibility to the end-users.\nLion Electric had $29 million in revenue in 2020 and expects $204 million in 2021. It forecasts revenue to jump to $3.6 billion a few years later in 2024. Its current market cap is approximately $3.6 billion based on its current stock price of $18.33.\nLightning eMotors (GIK)\nLightning eMotors, formerly Lightning Systems, was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Loveland, Colorado. It provides fleet electrification for familiar commercial vehicle platforms by retrofitting them with its electric powertrains. Lightning eMotors produces electric fleet medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including delivery trucks, shuttle buses, passenger vans, ambulances, bucket trucks, chassis-cab models, and city transit buses. It focuses on urban commercial zero-emission vehicles with a full range of class 3 through class 7 battery-electric and fuel-cell electric vehicles.\nLighting eMotors helps commercial fleets achieve their sustainability goals by offering zero-emission battery-electric vans, trucks, and buses based on familiar, proven vehicles from manufacturers such as Ford and GM. It works with customers, to help them identify their unique commercial electric vehicle, charging, and grant support needs.\nThe Lightning products include integrated all-electric powertrains for the Ford Transit 350HD passenger and cargo vans, Ford E-450 shuttle bus and cutaway models, Ford F-59 step/food van, Ford F-550 cargo trucks and buses, Chevrolet 6500XD Low Cab Forward model, and 30-foot, 35-foot, and 40-foot transit buses.\nLightning has 120 vehicles on the road, and 1,500 vehicles already on order from customers. In addition to making vehicles and powertrains, Lightning also provides a full suite of charging solutions for customers.\nThe deal with GIK has an enterprise value of $650 million, although there is also an Earnout of 20.0% of total pro forma shares outstanding to Lightning eMotors shareholders if the stock crosses certain price thresholds.\nAt the current price, of $11.73, GIK has a market cap of approximately $1 billion, a little more than the original transaction valuation. Similar to XL Fleet, Lightning has the risk that retrofitting may only be an interim business opportunity until more EV trucks are produced.\nPublic Chinese EV Companies\nChina will be the biggest EV market opportunity, and EV start-ups may do better there because there isn't as much entrenched competition from domestic auto companies. China is already the largest EV market in the world, with almost a million EVs sold in 2019. Its EV market represents almost half of the global EV sales volume and is much larger than the U.S. market.\nThe Chinese government has ambitions to become a global leader in new energy vehicles. Soon after the coronavirus outbreak subsided within the country, Chinese authorities announced new policies to support the auto and electric vehicle industries.\nThese Chinese companies are traded through American depository shares (ADS) that contain certain risks. There are financial reporting and transparency risks with these companies, and on top of that, the newer companies are being classified as \"emerging growth\" companies that are already exempt from certain transparency requirements set out in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Like the previous EV stock, these stocks have also been very volatile.\nIn addition to legacy auto manufacturers like BYD, there are also three Chinese EV companies that are publicly traded through American depositary shares.\nBYD Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:BYDDY)\nBYD, which means build your dreams, is the automotive subsidiary of the Chinese multinational BYD Co Ltd. It was founded in January 2003, following BYD Company's acquisition of Tsinchuan Automobile Company. The company produces automobiles, buses, electric bicycles, forklifts, rechargeable batteries, and trucks. The current model range of automobiles includes electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and petrol-engined vehicles. Thirteen years ago, on the advice of his famously skeptical lieutenant, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett made a $232 million investment in BYD, a relatively unknown Chinese car company.\nBy parlaying BYD's rechargeable battery technology into a fast-growing carmaking operation, it gained a foothold in the fledgling electric vehicle market, building longer-lasting batteries and cheaper vehicles than American and Japanese manufacturers were managing to do at the time. In BYD, Buffett and Munger believed they had found a company with a shot at one day becoming the largest player in a global automobile market that was inevitably going electric.\nBYD's start to 2021 was strong with 19,871 plug-in electric cars sold in January in China, including hybrid plug-ins. That was a big increase over 2020 but not as much as 2019.\nLI Auto (LI)\nLixiang, formerly known as Chehejia (\"Car and Home\"), was founded in 2015 and went public in the U.S. on July 30th, 2020. It is a Beijing-based electric-vehicle startup with vertically integrated manufacturing. It designs, researches, manufactures, sells, and offers services featuring a few models of electric vehicles.\nThe company's SUVs are hybrids of a sort. They use electric motors (one on the front axle and one on the rear), but those motors are powered by a combination of a 40.5kWh battery packanda 1.2-liter turbocharged engine paired to a 45-liter fuel tank and a 100kW electric generator, which generates power for the battery pack in real-time. The idea is that the car can be driven for about 100 miles on battery power alone, but it has a total range of nearly 500 miles when leveraging the combustion engine generator.\nThe Company's primary product is an SUV under its brand Li ONE. It also sells peripheral products and provides related services, such as charging stalls, vehicle internet connection services, and extended lifetime warranties. Li Auto is looking to sell a variety of SUVs built on its hybrid technology that range from around $21,000 to about $70,000. The company started shipping its first model in late 2019. It's a midsize SUV is well-appointed and has lots of touchscreens and technology. A full-size premium version is planned for release in 2022.\nDeliveries of Li ONEs were 14,464 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a 67.0% quarter-over-quarter increase and setting a new quarterly record. Deliveries for the full year 2020 reached 32,624 vehicles. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $635 million.\nLI auto went public on July 30th, 2020, raising $1.1 billion at an initial price of $15.50 per share but quickly reached almost $24. It is currently valued at approximately $37 billion at a price of approximately $25.72 per share.\nXPeng (XPEV)\nXiaopeng (XPeng) Motors is a Chinese electric vehicle and technology company that designs and manufactures smart cars. It was founded in 2015 and went public on August 27, 2020, using American depository shares, raising about $1 billion. To date, it has raised about $2.6 billion.\nXPeng aims its EVs at technology-savvy middle-class Chinese consumers, with prices ranging from $22,000 to $45,000 after government subsidies. In some ways, it is a Tesla knock-off at a much lower price. XPeng started production of the G3 in November 2018, and as of July 31, 2020, delivered 18,741. It started production of the P7 and began delivery in May 2020, and as of July 31, 2020, it had delivered 1,966 EVs. The P7 has a range of more than 400 miles. It plans to launch a third Smart EV, a sedan, in 2021. The G3 was among the top-three best-selling electric SUVs in China in 2019.\nXPeng is interesting because it has a platform strategy and is moving aggressively into autonomous driving. It uses a platform strategy to expand product offerings by launching one Smart EV model each year to broaden the addressable market. It builds new models on two highly flexible Smart EV platforms, called David and Edward, respectively. The David platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,600 millimeters to 2,800 millimeters, and the Edward platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,800 millimeters to 3,100 millimeters. It also adopted a platform approach for software systems.\nXPeng claims to be developing an autonomous driving capability for its EVs. The P7 is the first production vehicle to feature the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Xavier system-on-a-chip (SoC) autonomous driving platform. The company's Smart Electric Platform Architecture (SEPA) runs on 2 chips - NVIDIA for the XPILOT and Qualcomm's Snapdragon™ 820A for intelligent services and infotainment, including cameras inside and outside, radars, HD-map, and ultrasonic sensors. Like Tesla, it claims it can create sufficiently-autonomous driving without lidar.\nTo enhance brand recognition and allow more people to experience its Smart EVs, it deployed a small number of Smart EVs in a ride-hailing service in Guangzhou on a trial basis, but it has no current plan to scale up a ride-hailing service.\nXpeng sees first-quarter 2021 deliveries rising 450% year-over-year to 12,500 vehicles. Revenues are expected to increase 533% from a year ago. The company didn't provide bottom-line estimates for the quarter, but will likely post another net loss as it ramps up manufacturing, invests in R&amp;D, and builds out a new manufacturing plant set to open in 2022.\nXpeng reported selling 12,964 vehicles in Q4 2020, up 303% from a year ago. It delivered a total of 27,041 vehicles in 2020, up 112%. It makes the P7 sedan, a rival to the made-in-China Tesla Model 3, and the small G3 SUV.\nThe stock opened on August 27, 2020 at a price of $15 and a valuation of $11 billion, but its stock jumped more than 40% shortly after. Its current valuation is about $35 billion at a stock price of approximately $36.13 per share. It had about $300 million in revenue in 2019 with a loss of about $500 million.\nNio (NIO)\nUnlike previous companies, Nio has been a public company for some time. It originally went public in the U.S. back in September of 2018, selling IPO shares at $6.26 and raising $1 billion.\nNio's IPO was far from smooth. After going public at $6.26 per share, it traded down to nearly $1. Then in the middle of the coronavirus outbreak, Nio received a much-needed investment of $1 billion from investors, including state-backed entities.\nNio designs, jointly manufactures, and sells smart and connected premium electric vehicles, attempting to develop next-generation technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving, and artificial intelligence. Joint manufacturing means that it uses a state-owned contract manufacturer to build its cars.\nNio plans to provide customers with comprehensive, convenient, and innovative charging solutions and other user-centric services. It began deliveries of the ES8, a 7-seater high-performance premium electric SUV in China in June 2018, and its variant, the six-seater ES8, in March 2019. Nio officially launched the ES6, a 5-seater high-performance premium electric SUV, in December 2018 and began deliveries in June 2019. It officially launched the EC6, a 5-seater smart premium electric Coupe SUV, in December 2019 with deliveries in 2020.\nNio sold 17,353 EVs in Q4/2020 and 43,728 for the year. It warned a shortage in chips and batteries will force a production slowdown to 7,500 a month in Q2 from 10,000 vehicles a month in February.\nNio currently trades at more than $43 per share, including a big jump recently, for a valuation of approximately $48 billion. It had revenue of $2.3 billion in 2019 for a loss of $3.8 billion.\nSummary\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this should provide exciting new investment opportunities. However, the investment terrain is complex. There are dozens of new start-ups where the public can now invest that were previously exclusively venture capital investment opportunities. Many of these are following different roads to success. There are legacy auto manufacturers that could prosper or get destroyed in this transition. There are some exciting new EV company opportunities in China. And then there is Tesla.\nThis EV roadmap is intended to help investors explore different roads to investment by explaining the basic strategies for these EV companies. These roads can have different opportunities and risks, and the roadmap helps to frame these. Above all, valuation is an overriding risk that is highlighted throughout this article.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>New Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNew Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-19 14:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.\nLast October, I wrote a popular article providing...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车","01211":"比亚迪股份","NKLA":"Nikola Corporation","LI":"理想汽车","GP":"GreenPower Motor Company Inc.","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","GOEV":"Canoo Inc.","WKHS":"Workhorse Group, Inc.","F":"福特汽车","002594":"比亚迪","TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来","FSR":"菲斯克","HYLN":"Hyliion Holdings Corp."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1196402560","content_text":"Summary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.\nLast October, I wrote a popular article providing a roadmap for investing in electric vehicles, but since then, so much has changed: new entrants, new strategies, fluctuating valuations, etc.\nSo, I updated and greatly expanded the previous EV investment roadmap.\nThis update includes a deeper look at valuations for 23 EV companies with revenue projections, when available.\nIt also classifies these EV companies into their primary market categories and summarizes their different strategies.\n\nPhoto by Sven Loeffler/iStock via Getty Images\nMy article Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap published five months ago, was popular, and some followers have requested an update. Many new EV companies entered the market, most of them through SPACs. Valuations fluctuated wildly, and there has been a great deal of publicity around these companies.\nThis new updated EV investment roadmap is greatly expanded. In addition to updating the strategies and progress of companies previously discussed, I expanded the number of companies covered. This article also groups EV companies into their primary markets, enabling better comparisons and evaluation of market opportunities. In addition, it includes a comparative valuation chart showing every company's market cap with a comparison to projected revenue, where possible. This takes advantage (good or bad) of looking at the long-term revenue forecasts provided in SPAC mergers that public companies can't make.\nIn addition to the EV manufacturers discussed here, there are also EV investment opportunities in charging station companies, battery manufacturers, and battery materials companies. These were covered in the original roadmap and may also be updated in a later article.\nApproximately 2 million EVs were sold in 2019, and although the number declined along with all auto sales in 2020, it is forecasted to increase in 2021 and reach 8-10 million by 2025. Some forecast that EV sales will be greater than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2030, or even earlier. The automobile market appears to be moving toward a historical transformation, and exceptional investment gains can be made by anticipating new emerging industries and investing in the eventual winners of those new industries. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)are obvious examples. Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to create a new emerging industry.\nThere are also significant risks. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to be released in the next three years, which will drive rapid growth in EV sales. However, the expected sales from these new models, as well as the increasing expectations from Tesla, most likely exceed the total projected market. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the companies covered here won't exist five years from now. It reminds me of the internet bubble of the late 1990s when scores of internet-based companies went public with little or no revenue. Almost all of these failed within three years -- however, a couple, including Amazon, went on to enormous success.\nEVs provide a major new investment opportunity with high risks. To succeed, you need to have a clear EV investment roadmap.\nSo, how can you invest in this new emerging market? The EV landscape is complex and investment opportunities are varied. While Tesla is the unquestioned leader in EVs, some consider it overvalued and unlikely to show exceptional returns to new investors. The current U.S. legacy automakers are committed to introducing many new EVs in the next few years, and they have some entrenched advantages with volume manufacturing capabilities, a dealer infrastructure, and loyal customers. There are exciting new EV start-ups in the U.S. that have come public this year, mostly through Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), and there are several interesting publicly traded Chinese EV manufacturers.\nThis new roadmap for EV investment classifies companies into three primary markets segments:\n\nTheConsumer Retailsegment includes EVs sold to consumers individually, such as SUVs, pickup trucks, sedans, etc.\nTheCommercial Deliverysegment includes local delivery EV vans and trucks sold to fleets.\nTheMedium- and Long-Haul Truckingsegment includes heavier Class 4 - Class 8 trucks, as well as special industrial vehicles.\n\nIn addition, it categorizesLegacy ManufacturersandChinese EV Companies. This enables investors to evaluate investment opportunities by considering unique opportunities within each market segment.\nThere is an enormous amount of investment optimism for EVs, and retail investors have been aggressively buying into EV stocks with seemingly no regard for valuation. Then there is the additional challenge of valuing companies with no revenue, especially those coming public through SPACs. So, valuation is an important investment consideration.\nSo let's start by looking at an overview of comparative EV valuations.\nEV Investment Valuation Overview\nThe following chart summarizes valuations for 23 EV companies, including several legacy companies. For SPACs, market cap estimates are computed using the pro forma number of shares at closing, otherwise using the valuation of the SPAC prior to closing drastically underestimates the valuation, which may be misleading to novice investors. Price/Sales ratios (market cap divided by revenue) are used to compare valuations. As a benchmark, current P/S ratios vary. For example, auto and truck companies have a ratio of 2.7X. Software companies have the highest ratios of over 10X.\nIn the chart, companies that currently have revenue show current P/S ratios. Where projections are available, projected P/S ratios are computed. A note of caution, however. Many of the EV companies came public through SPACs and published their projections (which public companies cannot do), and many of these are likely to prove unrealistic.\nAll of the longer-term revenue projections come from the company (C) forecasts with a SPAC. Some of these may turn out to be accurate, not many are most likely unrealistic. Some, like Lucid, Faraday, and Arrival forecast hitting more than $10 billion in revenue in a few years, when it took Tesla more than 10. Things are different now and they might achieve these, but they could also find that it will take longer to complete development, ramp up production, and create enough customer demand. Many companies may also find that there will be significant capital requirements to achieve this type of growth, and shareholders will be diluted.\n\nTesla, the \"gold standard\" in EVs, has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, which many people believe is overvalued. Its market cap is approximately 20X 2020 revenue and 10X estimated 2022 revenue.\nTesla (TSLA)\nIn the U.S., and to a lesser extent in China, Tesla is the dominant EV provider. It has approximately 60% of the U.S. EV market and about 20% of the market in China. I own a Tesla and love it, but an investment in Tesla stock requires getting comfortable with its valuation. Tesla has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, although declining lately, which some consider still overvalued while others see upside potential.\nThe investment opportunity with Tesla is based on the expectation that it will continue to dominate the EV market, or at least maintain significant market share, despite much greater competition from the expected introduction of hundreds of new EV models in the next few years.\nThere is a great deal already published about Tesla, so I'll move on.\nLegacy Automakers\nSome people think that the legacy automakers will simply fade away. Historically, that was the case in some other industries, but it is not going to happen to most automakers. They are not standing still waiting to become obsolete. Most have aggressive strategies to replace ICE vehicles with EVs. GM plans to invest $27 billion and build and launch as many as 30 new EV models by 2025. Ford plans to invest $29 billion in EVs by 2025 and launch as many as 16 EVs in the next two years. Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY)has also committed billions to develop new EVs.\nThe competitive advantage that legacy automakers have in selling their new EVs is their dealer network. Will new EV customers prefer to continue going to their regular auto dealer to buy their new EV?\nAlmost all legacy automakers worldwide are developing and launching EVs including Volkswagen, Peugeot, Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi, Hyundai/Kia. Let's look a little more closely at GM and Ford as the leaders in the U.S.\nGeneral Motors (GM)\nGM has committed to introducing 20 new electric vehicles by 2023, including EVs across Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC, and Buick. It recently announced that it has already sold out the first-year production of its Hummer electric pickup. By mid-decade, it expects to sell a million EVs per year in its two largest markets: North America and China. As a reference point, Tesla reported deliveries of 367,500 vehicles globally in 2019.\nGM has a solid platform strategy for its EVs. It plans on building its EVs using five interchangeable drive units and three different motors from its Ultium Drive System platform. Ultium energy options range from 50 to 200 kWh, which could enable an estimated range of up to 400 miles. Most of its EVs will have 400-volt battery packs and up to 200 kW fast-charging capability while the truck platform will have 800-volt battery packs and 350 kW fast-charging capabilities.\nThe key building blocks of the Ultium battery system are large-scale, high-energy cells. Engineered in partnership with LG Energy Solutions, they use both advanced chemistry and a smart cell design that's optimized for a broad portfolio of EVs. GM engineers and scientists are actively researching and testing new elements in battery chemistry to lower costs and improve charge times. Ultium can contain either vertically- or horizontally-stacked cells to integrate into vehicle design: vertically for trucks, SUVs, and crossovers, or horizontally for cars and performance vehicles. As new chemistry is developed and becomes available, the battery management system could digitally update the modules.\nGM also has other EV opportunities with its BrightDrop commercial EV service and its Cruise subsidiary. BrightDrop will not just sell delivery EVs, it will provide an entire service platform for commercial delivery customers. Its set of electric delivery vehicles starts with the EV600 and includes the BrightDrop EP1, a pod-like electric pallet. SeeGeneral Motors' Aggressive EV/AV Strategies May Payoff Big.\nWith its highest stock price of $61.65, GM's current market cap is approximately $89 billion, increasing primarily because of its progress with EVs. This approximately 3X valuation in 2018, but still only 13% of Tesla.\nFord (F)\nFord is also investing heavily in EVs. It just introduced the Mustang Mach-E, a battery-powered crossover with sports car styling, and plans to introduce an all-electric version of its best-selling F-150 pickup later this year. Also, planned is an electric edition of the full-size Transit van, which has been popular in the commercial delivery market. Ford has confirmed plans to build a luxury Lincoln crossover on a battery-powered platform provided by Rivian. The automaker also plans to introduce two new midsize electric crossovers, one each for the Ford and Lincoln brands by 2023.\nMustang Mach-E. Source: Ford\nFord's market cap is approximately $51 billion, twice its previous market cap, and also increasing.\nConsumer Retail EV Companies\nThe consumer retail market has some unique characteristics for new EV companies. Sales are made individually, not in fleets. This diversifies the risk upon launch because only a sufficient number of customers need to be attracted to the new EV. A wave of popularity can provide terrific momentum.\nHowever, the lack of a dealer network can be an impediment. Selling EVs directly to consumers instead of through dealers is prohibited in most states. By law, auto manufacturers can't compete with franchised dealers. These are laws that go back many decades to protect dealers. This can be a major impediment for new companies without established independent dealer franchises. So, new AV companies. like Tesla, need to sell their vehicles online. Tesla has successfully done this, but it took a lot of work and time. Lack of a dealer network also creates impediments in service.\nIn addition, over the next 4-5 years, autonomous capabilities will be increasingly important to luxury vehicles. This may prove to be a challenge to start-up EV companies because they can't afford to develop this technology.\nLet's look closer at the alternative consumer retail EV investments.\nLucid Motors (CCIV)\nLucid was founded in 2007 under the name Atieva and originally focused on building electric vehicle batteries and powertrains for other vehicle manufacturers. The company rebranded itself as Lucid Motors in October 2016 and shifted its strategy to develop an all-electric, high-performance, luxury vehicle. Shortly after that, it encountered financial difficulties and struggled to get short-term funding. In 2018 it raised more than $1 billion in investment, primarily from Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund, and gave up a majority of the company.\nLucid Motors reached an agreement to become a publicly-traded company through a merger with the SPAC Churchill Capital IV Corp., in one of the largest deals SPAC EV deals. The combined company, in which Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund will continue to be the largest shareholder, had a transaction equity value of $11.75 billion (for $10/share). At the same time, it closed a PIPE investment priced at $15 a share, giving it an implied pro forma equity value of $24 billion. Rumors about this deal circulated before the transaction was formally announced, making it one of the most anticipated SPAC deals. The hype and speculation drove up the stock price of Churchill Capital IV Corp. from its opening price of $10 a share to almost $60. I believe that some of this may have been driven by novice SPAC investors who didn't realize that the valuation of CCIV didn't include the eventual valuation of Lucid. The share price dropped more than 30% after the details of the deal were announced. It's also likely that Lucid renegotiated the terms of the merger based on the price jump.\nThe company's first product is the Lucid Air, a well-equipped luxury electric vehicle that features 406 miles of projected range and 480 horsepower with a starting price of $77,400, or $69,900 after the U.S. Federal Tax Credit of $7,500. This new Lucid Air model is positioned as a high-performance, ultra-efficient luxury EV sedan in a line of future vehicles that are expected to include Lucid Air Touring, Grand Touring, and Dream Edition versions.\nThe company plans to begin production and deliveries of the Lucid Air in North America in the second half of 2021. Previously the company aimed to begin deliveries earlier in 2021. It intends to sell the car in Europe in 2022, followed by China in 2023. Lucid vehicles will be produced at its new factory in Casa Grande, Arizona. The company plans to expand the factory in phases in the coming years to have the capacity to produce 365,000 units per year at scale. The initial phase of the $700 million factory construction was completed late last year and will have the capacity to produce 30,000 vehicles a year.\nLucid also apparently has a commitment to build an assembly plant in Saudi Arabia, which was rumored to be a condition of the $1 billion investment from the Saudi public fund. The Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund also provided $600 million in bridge financing and invested in the SPAC deal as well. So, while this assembly plant may be expensive and may not be critical, it will most likely need to happen.\nLucid has ambitious plans to achieve $14 billion in revenue in 2025, and its current stock price at $29.17, which gives it a market cap of more than $46 billion, may already reflect those ambitions. Its market cap is roughly the same as Ford.\nFisker (FSR)\nFisker, which had its origins with Fisker Automotive, is an interesting story that ended in bankruptcy. Henrik Fisker originally co-founded Fisker Automotive in 2007. He was responsible for designing many premium cars such as the Aston Martin. Subsequently, Fisker Automotive had to deal with a Tesla lawsuit against Fisker Automotive alleging it stole Tesla's technology, a controversial $528.7 million conditional loan from the Department of Energy, a recall of its battery produced by A123, and the loss of several hundred vehicles in hurricane Sandy. Henrik Fisker resigned in March 2013 because of disagreements over business strategy and in November 2013, Fisker filed its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case.\nHowever, Henrik Fisker retained the Fisker brand and trademarks, and in 2016 he started another electric vehicle company named Fisker Inc. with the Fisker brand and trademarks. In 2019, Fisker shifted from developing a sports car with a solid-state battery to the Ocean SUV featuring a lithium-ion battery, which it later abandoned for a solid-state battery.\nFisker is positioning itself in a unique segment for those who want the most environmentally friendly EV. While this may be an early growth segment for EVs, it's difficult to estimate its eventual competitive advantage and the size of this environmentally-friendly market segment.\nThe Ocean is a crossover made of recycled metal and plastic with an expected base price of $37,499, and an expected lease of less than $400 a month. Fisker's plan is essentially a lease-only business model that lets customers keep a vehicle for years or return it at any time. It aims to source motors, batteries, and other components from technical partnerships with automakers and will outsource production from existing auto plants. Fisker is currently taking reservations at $250 for the Ocean. It also announced an agreement with Foxconn to jointly develop a vehicle pioneering a new market segment to be sold globally under the Fisker brand commencing in Q4 2023. at the end of 2022. Production will start at Magna Steyr's manufacturing facilities in Europe. At the end of February 2021, it had 12,467 cancellable reservations.\nFisker Ocean. Source: Fisker\nFisker went public using a SPAC (Spartan Energy). The original combination with SPAQ in October 2020 was valued at $2.9 billion with a cash investment of approximately $1 billion. The stock currently trades at approximately $21 per share, after reaching a high of $28.50, from the original price of $10, which is a market cap of $4.6 billion. Fisker projects $3.3 billion in revenue in 2023. It had almost $1 billion in cash at the end of 2020 and expected to use almost half of this in 2021: $250 million on operating expenses and $250 million in capital investments. If the Ocean is delayed into 2023, Fisker risks missing its revenue objective and will potentially need additional cash to complete development and launch.\nFaraday Future (PSAC)\nFaraday Future was originally established in May 2014 by Chinese businessman Jia Yueting. It is headquartered in Los Angeles and has offices in Silicon Valley, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu. Faraday Future also had a turbulent history. In 2016, it struggled financially, and in 2017 some key executives departed over a dispute about financial issues. They later founded Canoo.\nIn December 2018 the company announced layoffs due to a cash crunch and financial troubles. The company's founder Jia Yueting filed for personal bankruptcy in the United States' federal court in Delaware on October 14, 2019. Following Jia's personal bankruptcy, he decided to step down from his role as CEO of Faraday Future in order to assume a new position as the Chief Product and User Officer. He was replaced as CEO by Carsten Breitfeld, the former CEO at rival electric vehicle startup Byton.\nSomehow, Faraday was able to raise $2.3 billion in private funding over 5 rounds from a variety of investors. In early 2018, it received $1.5 billion in funding from an undisclosed investor from Hong Kong.\nFaraday's flagship product offering will be the FF 91, featuring 1,050 HP, 0-60 mph in less than 2.4 seconds, zero gravity seats with the largest 60-degree reclining angles, and a user experience designed to create a mobile, connected, and luxurious living space. The FF 91 is targeted to launch in 2022.\nFF 91. Source: Faraday Future\nIts strategic partners include one of China's top three OEMs and a critical Chinese city, which the company believes will help establish its presence in the Chinese vehicle market.\nFaraday Future plans several cars based on its Variable Platform Architecture. FF 91 is the first production vehicle and flagship model. Pricing will range between $120,000 and upwards of $200,000, which places it against formidable opponents. Faraday Future is already looking forward to expanding its range with a pair of smaller models named FF 81 and FF 71. The FF 81 is planned to be priced at $75,000 to 95,000 with a 2023 release. The FF 71 is planned to be priced at $45,000 to $65,000 with a planned release of 2024.\nThe Primary Manufacturing Facility for FF 91 is in Hanford, CA with contract manufacturing for future models in Gunsan, South Korea.\nFaraday Future is planning high-Level automation with a Level-3 capable system using a redundant safety architecture based on NVIDIA Xavier System-on-a-chip. It will be capable of highway auto-drive and hardware ready for advanced auto-drive. It is targeting full autonomous valet parking & summon in any parking lot or structure. Eventually, it expects full auto-drive, including full 360˚ sensor coverage for advanced auto-drive & auto-park features.\nIn January 2021, Faraday Future announced that the company would go public through a reverse merger with the special purpose acquisition company Property Solutions Acquisition Corp. (PSAC). The combined company will be valued at $3.4 billion. Faraday Future is expected to set up contract manufacturing operations in China through their partnership with Geely. Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn is also expected to serve as an additional strategic partner.\nFaraday Future projects $10.5 billion in revenue in 2024 and $21.5 billion in 2025. Revenue is expected to start in 2022 with the delivery of 2,400 vehicles for $504 million. Most likely these projections could prove to be optimistic. At a current stock price of approximately $12.80, it has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nLordstown Motors (RIDE)\nLordstown Motors based in Lordstown, Ohio, was originally founded in 2018 by Steve Burns, the former CEO of Workhorse Group. The company licensed technology from Workhorse in return for royalties and a 10% ownership. Lordstown is named after the famous GM Lordstown manufacturing plant, which it acquired in November 2019 in an unusual transaction. GM announced that it was closing the plant and was under a great deal of pressure for that decision. So, GM \"sold\" the plant to a company that was renamed Lordstown for an estimated $20 million that it loaned to the acquiring company. Subsequently, the sale was redefined to be part of a $75 million investment by GM, of which $50 million was an in-kind exchange for the plant.\nLordstown went public through the SPAC DiamondPeak Holdings Corp. in 2020. It currently has more than 400 employees.\nIts first product is the Lordstown Endurance, a full-sized EV pickup truck. Lordstown is positioning Endurance for the pickup fleet market segment. The expected price is $52,000+, and it claimed to have more than 100,000 pre-orders by January 2021. However, a recent research article published by a short seller claimed \"Our research has revealed that Lordstown's order book consists of fake or entirely non-binding orders, from customers that generally do not even have fleets of vehicles.\" Lordstown is disputing that article.\nIt believes the fleet pickup market segment is underserved with no current EV-focused competition. It estimates that the full-sized pick-up truck fleet market is 1.2 million vehicles per year in the U.S., but it's more fragmented than other truck fleets. Pickup \"fleets\" tend to be much smaller and local, so there may not be much of a market distinction for a small company buying several EV pickups from a traditional auto dealer. About half of the total U.S. pickup market is classified as fleet sales, meaning more than one.\nEven though Lordstown is targeting the commercial fleet market, it is a similar product to the Ford EV F-150. So I classify it in the consumer EV category. It is a class 2 vehicle. Lordstown also may enter the SUV market in the longer-term.\nThe Endurance will compete against future models from Rivian and Tesla, as well as Ford and GM in ICE pick-ups and their upcoming EV pick-ups. Ford plans on selling its EV F-150 in mid-2022. Initial production of the Endurance is expected in the second half of 2021, so it may have a short market advantage. Nevertheless, it forecasts selling 65,000 vehicles in 2023 and 107,000 in 2024. These estimates could be a large percentage of the EV pick-up market in those years.\nAt the SPAC merger, the implied valuation for Lordstown was $1.6 billion, including a $500 million PIPE and the $75 million by GM. Lordstown's financial projections appear to be aggressive. It projects to start shipping the Endurance in late 2021 with projected revenue in 2022 of $1.7 billion, increasing to $5.8 billion in 2024. Its stock price at approximately $13.60 values the company at a market cap of approximately $2.2 billion. The value of the company depends on the likelihood of achieving its projections.\nA fleet sales strategy makes sense for Lordstown since it would be too expensive to build a retail sales and service capability. However, it's not clear that this will become a distinct competitive advantage. Some small fleets may still prefer to buy their EV pickups from established local dealers with service capabilities.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nCanoo started as Evelozcity in 2017 and rebranded as Canoo in the spring of 2019. Canoo is a Los Angeles-based company that develops electric vehicles. It has over 350 employees. Canoo has designed a modular electric platform purpose-built to deliver maximum vehicle interior space, which is adaptable to support a wide range of vehicle applications for consumers and businesses. Canoo expects to launch its first consumer model in 2022, simply named the Canoo that will be available by subscription, followed shortly after by a multi-purpose delivery vehicle and a sports vehicle, each built off of the same underlying platform. Canoo went public using a SPAC (Hennessy Capital Acquisition) and now trades as GOEV.\nCanoo's all-electric skateboard-like platform is designed to support both consumer retail and commercial vehicle configurations. The EV leverages Canoo's flat skateboard architecture for a high level of usable interior space. Its commercial vehicle program, expected in 2023, addresses a projected $50B+ last-mile delivery market with an EV platform that maximizes cargo volume.\nHyundai Motor Group said it would jointly develop an electric vehicle platform with the company.\nCanoo's platform strategy is interesting. It could be used as an EV platform for custom fleets of delivery vehicles. It has no AV development, but it claims to be \"AV Ready\" which could be useful for AV companies wanting to build custom AV delivery fleets.\nIts all-electric multi-purpose delivery vehicle is expected to be priced starting at approximately $33,000. It is based on Canoo's proprietary electric platform and will be offered in two initial size variants, with others to follow. Limited availability will begin in 2022, with scaled production and launch planned for 2023. Customers can pre-order the multi-purpose delivery vehicle for a refundable deposit of $100 per vehicle\nIt plans to offer two multi-purpose delivery vehicles: the MPDV1 and the larger MPDV2. The first has a 200-foot cargo volume and a range of 130-200 miles. It offers more capacity than today's ICE delivery vehicles at an affordable price with urban mobility enabled by a space-efficient footprint. The vehicle is also designed to fit within many height-restricted areas like parking garages.\nThe MPDV2 has a cargo volume of 450 feet and a range of 90-190 miles. Its roof and step-in height enable individuals to easily walk-in the vehicle and accommodate a standing position while inside.\nThe original SPAC transaction provided approximately $600 million, with a pro forma equity value of approximately $2.4 billion. Like other SPAC mergers, its stock price has fluctuated. It currently trades at about $15.90 per share for a market cap of approximately $3.7 billion. Canoo projects $2.0 billion in revenue in 2025 from about $500 million in engineering services, $1.2 billion from its consumer vehicle subscriptions, and the remainder from its commercial program. Canoo expects revenue of more than $300 million in 2022 after the launch of its lifestyle consumer vehicle.\nSince its first products are aimed at consumers, as is most of its forecasted 2025 revenue, I categorize it primarily as a consumer EV company. However, I think the design of that Canoo vehicle may not attract enough customers. More importantly, its subscription service way of selling its EV to consumers is risky. I think it has more potential in the commercial market, however, a dual strategy (consumer and commercial) is challenging. I like its skateboard platform design and that could prove to be a competitive advantage.\nRivian\nAlthough not yet public, I include Rivian because it has plans for an IPO as soon as Sept 2021, although it could slip into 2022. There are rumors that the company is targeting a market valuation of approximately $50B. Rivian has already raised more than $8 billion to date from Amazon, Ford, T. Rowe Price, and others.\nRivian has developed and vertically integrated a connected electric platform that can be flexibly applied to a range of applications, including the company's adventure products, as well as B2B products such as the Amazon last-mile delivery vans. The company's initial products, the R1T and R1S, provide a combination of performance, off-road capability, and utility. These vehicles will be produced at Rivian's manufacturing plant in Normal, Ill., with customer deliveries expected to begin in summer 2021. The launch of the R1S three-row electric SUV will follow in August.\nAdditional lower-priced models are being planned. The expected R2 series would include at least two smaller electric vehicles to coincide with the smaller platform, then another platform for R3.\nCommercial Delivery EV Companies\nEV truck companies differ based on the type of truck they are developing. The technology and markets are very different, so I separate them into two categories. The first category includes commercial delivery vehicles.\nCompanies making EV delivery vehicles have some major advantages that could make them good investments. First, delivery vehicles typically travel less than 250 miles during a day, so they can be conveniently recharged overnight. Secondly, they are typically sold in large quantities to fleets. This means that building a retail sales infrastructure is not necessary. It only requires a small salesforce. In addition, maintenance can also be provided at the fleet's operational center, so not as many service centers are required.\nThe disadvantage in this market is that there are a relatively small number of customers that buy in large volumes, so if the EV manufacturer can't get enough large customers, they may not be able to stay in business. GM estimates the combined market opportunity for parcel and food delivery, as well as reverse logistics, in the U.S. will be more than $850 billion by 2025.\nThe commercial market is expected to be a major growth area for EVs. Other start-up automakers like Rivian as well as legacy automakers such as Ford, Daimler, and GM have announced plans to enter the segment. GM recently announced its BrightDrop ecosystem for commercial customers that includes an all-new electric delivery van, the EV600 available by the end of 2021, as well as an integrated autonomous pallet and related services.\nThis group of EV companies focuses primarily on commercial delivery. In general, these are in the light-duty trucks category, although it also includes some medium-duty trucks. This generally includes the following commercial truck classes:\n\nClass 1: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 0-6,000 pounds or 0-2,722 kilograms.\nClass 2: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 6,001-10,000 pounds or 2,722-4,536 kilograms.1\nClass 3: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 10,001-14,000 pounds or 4,536-6,350 kilograms.\n\nIt can also include somewhat larger medium-duty EV delivery trucks:\n\nClass 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.\nClass 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.\n\nEV delivery trucks also have an advantage over ICE vehicles because they can have a greater delivery storage space. Smaller buses and transit vehicles are also included in this category.\nLast-mile package delivery is not an immediate-term autonomous vehicle opportunity because it requires a delivery person to be on the truck anyway.\nWorkhorse Group (WKHS)\nWorkhorse has been a public company for ten years. Originally AMP Electric Vehicles, it was established in 2007 as a developmental-stage vehicle electrification company, focusing on conversions. AMP Electric Vehicles went public in 2010 trading on the OTC market under the AMPD symbol. When the economic benefits of conversion became less certain, it pivoted away from passenger vehicles and began to focus on electrifying commercial vehicles. AMP acquired the Workhorse brand and the Workhorse custom chassis assembly plant in Union City. In March of 2013, AMP formally changed its name to Workhorse Group Incorporated.\nThe Company designs and builds a last-mile delivery electric vehicle. The C-Series EVs cover the larger size of commercial delivery vehicles in Classes 3-5. As part of its solutions, it also develops cloud-based, real-time telematics performance monitoring systems. It sells its vehicles to fleet customers directly and through its primary distributor, Ryder Systems. It is currently focused on bringing the C-Series electric delivery truck to market and fulfilling the existing backlog of orders.\nThe C-Series looks like a viable EV replacement for the 350,000 last-mile delivery vehicles sold in the U.S. annually. It recently announced an increased driving range from 100 miles to 160, which should open more market opportunities. It has a viable short-term go-to-market strategy selling fleets to delivery companies. It currently has test vehicles with UPS, DHL, FedEx, Amazon, and Walmart.\nWorkhorse recently lost out on the United States Postal Services Next Generation Delivery Vehicle project, however, it is in the process of challenging this decision. Additionally, its investment in Lordstown also provides an indirect investment opportunity. On November 7, 2019, the Company entered a transaction with Lordstown Motors to grant LMC a perpetual and worldwide license to certain intellectual property relating to its W-15 electric pickup truck platform and related technology in exchange for royalties, equity interest (approximately 10%) in LMC, and other considerations. This was a $320 million asset for Workhorse at the end of 2020.\nWorkhorse received a significant increase in orders in Q4/2020 but built just seven trucks in the fourth quarter due to production systems and supply chain issues. Workhorse plans to continue to take it slow, striving to build three of its composite-body battery-electric trucks a day in March with a plan to reach 10 trucks a day by the end of June. This makes its original 2021 goal of producing 1,800 trucks unlikely. It partnered with Hitachi and Hitachi Capital America (\"HCA\") to improve the Company's manufacturing, operational, and supply chain capabilities as well as to develop a national dealer network to support Workhorse's sales with vehicle financing options for both dealers and customers.\nWorkhorse has a market cap of approximately $1.9 billion. While Workhorse had ongoing revenue, unlike many other new EV companies, its revenue is still insignificant. It had a revenue of $1.4 million in 2020 and $377,000 in 2019. It has a backlog of over 8,000 vehicles but doesn't expect to be able to build many of those in 2021. It raised $270 million in capital over several financings, providing the Company with additional capital to build its backlog. It had cash of $215 million as of March 1, 2021. Because Workhorse is a traditional public company, it hasn't made long-term financial projections like SPAC-based companies.\nElectric Last Mile (FIII)\nElectric Last Mile, based in Troy Michigan, was founded by Jason Luo, former CEO of Ford China before it was acquired by China's Ningbo Joyson Electronic for $920 million in 2016, including James Taylor, former CEO of GM's Hummer brand and former CEO of electric car maker Karma Automotive. Taylor serves as the company's top executive with Luo as the company's chairman.\nThe company plans to launch a small electric delivery van (class 1-2), called the UD-1, in the third quarter of 2021, and then introduce an Urban Utility vehicle (Class 2-3) in 2022. These are expected to compete with Workhorse, Rivian, Canoo, as well as the Ford eTransit and the GMC BV1, none of which is expected to be a Class 1 vehicle.\nThe company says it has 30,000 preorders for its van, representing more than $1 billion in sales. Electric Last Miles vehicles will be based on Sokon's commercial van made in China through a joint venture with Dongfeng Automobile Co Ltd. in order to accelerate development time.\nElectric Last Mile (ELM) is expected to manufacture the vans in a former General Motors Co. Hummer plant in Mishawaka, Ind., that the company is acquiring from China's Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co. Ltd. The plant has the capacity to produce 100,000 vehicles annually with plans to build approximately 4,000 UD-1 vans by the end of 2021. The UD-1 has a starting price of $32,500 and a range of 150 miles. The battery for the vehicle is expected to be supplied by the Chinese battery company CATL.\nELM believes that it has a competitive advantage because its first vehicle, the ELM Urban Delivery, is scheduled to be available in 2021. It is based on a proven, existing platform developed and sold by Sokon Group in the Asian market, where there are 30,000 of these electric delivery vehicles driving 1.5 million miles every day. At the close of the business combination, ELM will be an independent, U.S. company producing electric vehicles in the U.S. with Sokon Group providing access to its know-how, parts supply, and field and service data.\nELM expects that the Urban Delivery vehicle will be the first electric delivery vehicle coming to market in the class 1 category (GVW of 6,000 lbs or less) in the U.S. It will also have 35% more carrying volume compared to similar ICE delivery vehicles, a critical part of the value proposition. It also anticipates that its price and greater carrying volume will allow it to take market share from the class 2 category of vehicles as well.\nIts crossover product portfolio strategy targets commercial delivery vehicles spanning from class 1 to class 3, which represents over 80% of the last mile market.\nELM anticipates $122 million in revenue in 2021, rapidly increasing to $3 billion in 2025. The price of FIII stock increased immediately following its announcement with Electric Last Mile, rising more than 40% to $14.50, but now it has dropped closer to the original deal price to $10.25 for a market cap of approximately $1.5 billion.\nGreenPower Motor Company (GP)\nGreenPower Motor Company Inc. is a Canadian battery-electric bus manufacturer with multiple models of high- and low-floor vehicles, including transit buses, school buses, and shuttles. GreenPower offers commercial vehicles for delivery, public transit, schools, vanpooling, micro-transit, shuttles, and is developing a capability of autonomous operation. It went public on August 28, 2020.\nIn 2014 GreenPower launched its first purpose-built, battery-electric bus, the EV350, 40-foot transit bus. GreenPower received its first order in 2017 for ten EV350s from the City of Porterville, California.\nGreenPower's electric buses are purpose-built and designed to be all-electric, allowing it to put the battery and propulsion system in optimized locations that provide weight and structural advantages. Its primary EV is the EV Star with more than 120 vehicles delivered. It comes in several variations:\n\nEV Star - Up to 19 passengers\nEV Star Plus - Up to 24 passengers\nEV Star ADA - Passenger and curbside lift for ADA\nEV Star Cargo - 5,000 pounds of load\nEV Star Cargo Plus - 570 cubic feet of cargo space.\n\nIts EV school bus seats up to 90 students and has a range of up to 150 miles.\nGreenPower had revenue of $13.5 million in 2020 It has about $21 million in cash. It's an interesting alternative since it is already shipping EVs, has revenue, and also has a lower market cap of less than $1 billion. Since it did a traditional IPO, it hasn't published longer-term financial forecasts.\nArrival (CIIC)\nArrival was founded in 2015 in London to make a variety of commercial electric vehicles. It has approximately 1,200 employees across 11 cities in 8 countries. In November 2020, Arrival and the SPAC CIIG entered into a business combination agreement with an implied valuation of $5.39 billion.\nArrival plans on releasing four commercial EVs over the next few years.\n\nQ4/2021: An electric bus for 8-125 passengers and a range of 240-400km\nQ3/2022: An electric delivery van with a payload of 975-2,000kg and a range of 150-340km\n2022: A larger electric van with a payload of 4,000 kg and a range of 190-400km\n2023: a small vehicle platform with a range of 100-300km.\n\nThis mix provides a nice diversified portfolio of EVs. Arrival claims to have received orders from UPS for 10,000 vans. It plans a unique flexible manufacturing approach using micro-factories with each projected to manufacture 10,000 vans per year. All of its vehicles use a modular skateboard electric platform.\nArrival ambitiously projects $14.1 billion in revenue in 2024. Half of that revenue is expected from delivery vans, 22% from buses, and the rest from the large van and its small vehicle platform. With CIIC's stock price at $24.80 per share, Arrival's current market cap is relatively high at approximately $15.0 billion. Justifying its market cap depends on its ability to release, sell, and produce its four commercial EVs.\nProterra (ACTC)\nProterra is a commercial electric vehicle company with over a decade of production experience. The Company has designed an end-to-end, flexible technology platform that claims to deliver higher performance and a low total cost of ownership to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end customers.\nProterra, Inc., was originally founded in Golden, Colorado, by Dale Hill in 2004. Later the company wanted to take the lead in creating zero-emission, U.S.-based transit buses. In 2010 it moved its manufacturing plant from Golden, Colorado to Greenville, South Carolina. In 2015, Proterra was awarded a $3 million grant from the California Energy Commission to fund the design, development, and construction of the company's battery-electric transit bus manufacturing line in the City of Industry, California. It moved its headquarters from Greenville, South Carolina, to Burlingame, California, in October 2015. Proterra raised more than $600 million in funding.\nIt is going public through the SPAC ArcLight (ACTC) with a pro forma valuation of $1.6 billion. Upon completion of the transaction, Proterra expects to have up to $825 million in cash to fund growth initiatives, including R&D and the expansion of its next-generation battery program.\nProterra has three complementary businesses:\n\nProterra Powered: Delivering battery systems and electrification solutions to commercial vehicle manufacturers\nProterra Transit:Providing an electric transit bus OEMs\nProterra Energy:Offering turnkey charging and energy management solutions.\n\nThe company's battery systems have been proven in more than 16 million service miles driven by its fleet of transit vehicles and validated through partnerships with commercial vehicle OEMs. Proterra has produced and delivered more than 300 megawatt-hours of battery systems, more than 550 heavy-duty electric transit buses, and installed 54 megawatts of charging systems.\nProterra expected $193 million of revenue in 2020, with an estimated $750 million in existing orders and backlog. It projects $2.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with about 1/3 coming from its Transit business, and 2/3 From Powered & Energy. At ACTC's current stock price of $17.85, Proterra has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nRivian\nRivian (see earlier description in consumer retail) will also compete in the commercial delivery market. It has been working with Amazon (a major investor) to build large electric delivery vans for Prime. Developed specifically for Amazon, a small fleet of Prime vans is on the road now, testing deliveries to customers and gathering feedback. In late fall, it could grow to a large fleet as Rivian ramps up the volume.\nThe EV range of 150 miles is tailored to Amazon's use cycle to optimize the size, weight, and cost of the commercial vehicle. Rivian has three sizes of batteries, but Amazon is starting with just one of them.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nSee the previous summary under consumer retail EV.\nMedium and Long-Haul Trucking EV Companies\nCompanies developing medium- and long-haul EV trucks face a more difficult challenge with battery range. These trucks haul much more weight than commercial delivery vehicles and because they are designed for long distances, they can't stop every 200-300 miles for recharging.\nFor this reason, many of these companies are using unique hybrid technologies for their trucks. The EV trucks in this category are primarily heavy-duty but also include some medium-duty trucks and specialty vehicles. A couple of the companies focus on retrofitting trucks to be electric.\nMedium-Duty Trucks\nThe medium-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 4, 5, and 6:\n\nClass 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.\nClass 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.\nClass 6: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 19,501-26,000 pounds or 8,846-11,793 kilograms.1\n\nHeavy-Duty Trucks\nThe heavy-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 7 and 8:\n\nClass 7: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 26,001 to 33,000 pounds or 11,794-14,969 kilograms.\nClass 8: This class of trucks has a GVWR of greater than 33,001 pounds or 14,969 kilograms and includes all tractor-trailers.\n\nThe Tesla Semi is a battery vehicle planned for a range of 300 or 500 miles and a speed of 60 MPH with 80,000 lbs of cargo. Tesla plans to start shipping the Semi later this year when it expects to have sufficient cell volume to meet its needs with the production of its 4680 battery pack.\nNikola(NASDAQ:NKLA)\nNikola has been a very controversial company. Founded in 2015, it originally had two different strategies. Its primary strategy is to lease fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) Class-8 heavy trucks and provide the refueling infrastructure to corporate customers. Its second strategy was to develop the Badger EV truck using GM technology.\nNikola originally merged with a SPAC to go public, at an enterprise value of approximately $3.3 billion. On June 6th, 2020, its market cap jumped to more than $30 billion, then later it dropped because of problems with its originally planned deal with GM.\nNikola originally expected a deal with General Motors that included the production of the Nikola Badger EV pickup truck. The proposed arrangement was that GM would take a $2 billion equity stake in Nikola and in return would engineer and produce the Badger. In November 2020, GM and Nikola scrapped the original arrangement. Now it appears that GM will supply Nikola with only its Hydrotec hydrogen fuel-cell technology to integrate into the EV manufacturer's commercial class 7 and class 8 zero-emission semi-trucks. So, the Badger is probably dead.\nNikola now sees semi-trucks as the company's \"core business\" and fuel cells as an increasingly important segment of the semi-truck market thanks to their efficiency in weight and consumption. It expects to begin testing by the end of 2021.\nIt has received pre-orders from Anheuser-Busch and a few other companies, but it doesn't expect deliveries until 2023. Hydrogen fueling stations are key to its strategy, both providing a source of revenue and necessary fueling infrastructure for the trucks to operate, but they also cost a lot. In its March 2020 investor deck, Nikola said a single station capable of fueling 210 trucks a day would cost $16.6 million. Its initial planned network of 700 stations would cost roughly $11.6 billion.\nNikola was also accused of misrepresentation, and its executive chairman and founder stepped down.\nAt the time of the SPAC merger, it projected an optimistic forecast of more than $3 billion in revenue by 2024, with a net income of $145 million. Most of that revenue was expected to come from its Badger truck, which is no longer in the plans. Yet its market cap is still almost $6 billion.\nHyliion (HYLN)\nHyliion, founded in 2015 in Austin, went public in October 2020 through the SPAC Tortoise Acquisition Corp. (SHLL). In March 2019, automotive parts manufacturer Dana Inc. made an equity investment into Hyliion, and together they are manufacturing and marketing Class 8 EVs to Dana's customers, including Volvo, Navistar, and Peterbilt.\nHyliion's strategy is unique, and a very different strategy from Nikola. Essentially it generates electricity onboard the truck using compressed natural gas (CNG). This should be a benefit for longer-range trucking. Hyliion's Hypertruck concept involves an all-electric drivetrain utilizing Dana's electric motor, inverter, and axle technologies. The truck's batteries are fueled by onboard tanks of CNG. With some 700 CNG stations already operating nationwide, it believes that there no need to build out expensive superchargers or hydrogen infrastructure.\nKuwait-based logistics company, Agility, has already placed an order for 1,000 Hypertrucks with initial deliveries targeted in 2022. Combined with a fully electric drivetrain and a natural gas-powered onboard generator to recharge the battery, the Hypertruck ERX will provide more than 1,000 miles of range.\nHyliion will eventually compete with Nikola (FCEV) and the Tesla battery-based Semi, but it plans to have a longer range and lower operating costs. Its HyperTruck ERX is expected to be available in 2021. It also has a hybrid-electric truck.\nThe combination with SHLL had an estimated market cap of about $1.5 billion, with approximately $530 million going to the company, including a $325 million fully committed PIPE. At approximately $13.50 per share, its current market cap is approximately $2.2 billion, significantly down from its peak. Hyliion projects $2 billion in revenue in 2024, which it claims is only about 2% of the addressable market.\nXL Fleet (XL)\nXL Fleet is a 10-year old company that went public through the SPAC Pivotal. XL is different because it provides fleet electrification modifications for ICE trucks across a wide range of vehicle classes (class 2-5) and types. It has over 200 of the largest commercial and municipal fleets as customers, with more than 3,200 XL systems deployed and over 130 million miles driven by customers to date. XL's customer base includes FedEx, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Verizon, the City of Boston, Seattle Fire Department, Yale University, and Harvard University.\nXL's business model is essentially retrofitting existing trucks to be hybrids and then later expanding into fully electric truck conversions. It claims to be creating a fully integrated platform for this. It remains to be seen if the retrofitting business will continue to grow or will it diminish when more trucks are designed and manufactured with EV capabilities.\nUnlike some other EV companies that have no revenue yet because they are still developing products, XL is more of a small company doing low-volume retrofits. It had $7.2 million in revenue in 2019, $21 million in 2020, and estimates $76 million in 2021, but it forecasts $1.3 billion in revenue in 2024 in its investor presentation. It plans to do this by expanding its product line from hybrid to plug-in hybrid to fully electric across a broader range of trucks. It claims to have a $220 million sales pipeline for the next 12 months.\nShort-seller, Muddy Waters, claimed after talking to former XL Fleet employees, that it believed the company significantly exaggerated its order backlog, that the return on investment for the company's products was likely negative, and that it would not be able to compete with big car makers on electrification. The company thoroughly refuted these claims.\nThe original enterprise valuation was approximately $1.4 billion at a $10 share price for the merger. Its price jumped by about 35% but has since gone back down to $12.40 for a market cap of about $1.8 billion. Although XL Fleet has revenue and other EV companies don't, this may not be an advantage. It appears to be a small company for many years that has gone public at a high valuation with grand plans. The risks are in its ability to make a jump from $76 million in 2021 to $1.3 billion in 2024, as well as the question about retrofitting being replaced by new EV trucks by then.\nXos (NGAC)\nXos Trucks specializes in the field of manufacturing fully electric commercial vehicles. It features a software platform that is designed to accommodate an extensive variety of medium-duty bodies, wheelbase, and range requirements up to 200 miles. It was founded in 2016 and headquartered in North Hollywood, California. It received $20 million of investment in 2020 and now is going public through a merger with the SPAC ExtGen Acquisition Corporation (NGAC) at an estimated proforma value of $1.965 billion.\nIts focus is on medium- and heavy-duty last mile and return-to-base segments (class 5/6, class 6/7, and class 7/8) commercial fleets and specialty vehicles. Some vehicles are currently in production and in regular on-road operations with key fleet customers, and it claimed 6,000 unit orders in backlog.\nIts MD-platform is for classes 5-6 for pickup and delivery. Its HD X-Platform is an adaptable chassis for highway, vocational, and severe work conditions. Its market is for customers with highly predictable routes that allow for batteries designed for a more limited range. A significantly larger frame and smaller battery pack allow for reduced density.\nXos has a bundled all-in-one offering that allows fleets to access all the tools and services they need to go electric with a single point of contact at a fixed monthly expense.\nXos had $3 million in revenue in 2020 and estimates $14 million in 2021. However, it forecasts $5.2 billion in revenue in 2025. At the current stock price of $10.30, its market cap is approximately $2 billion, about the same as its original SPAC transaction.\nLion Electric (NGA)\nLion Electric is a Canadian company founded by Marc Bédard in 2008. Its focus is to be a leader in designing, developing, and manufacturing purpose-built urban electric vehicles; vehicles that are specifically designed as delivery trucks, refuse trucks, bucket trucks, moving trucks, school buses, and shuttle buses. It has over 300 all-electric vehicles on the road today.\nIn November 2020, it announced that it was going public through the SPAC NGA. The transaction had an estimated pro forma enterprise value of $1.5 billion.\nIt plans on seven new truck models and one new school bus, for a total of 15 all-electric vehicles, representing a full line-up from class 5 to class 8 electric trucks and a full line-up of electric school buses. Its vehicles are produced at its existing manufacturing plant, which has the capacity for the production of up to 2,500 vehicles per year. It intends to open a new plant in the U.S. capable of delivering over 20,000 Lion trucks and buses per year by 2022.\nIts all-electric class 6 and class 8 commercial urban trucks combine power, comfort, and modern technology. Custom-built chassis and cabin designed specifically for an all-electric heavy-duty vehicle. The LionC is an all-electric Type C school bus manufactured in North America. The body and chassis were specifically designed to deliver optimal performance. The LionM is an all-electric midi/minibus that meets paratransit and public transportation requirements. Created and designed specifically for the paratransit market, the is spacious and offers unique features that provide enhanced security and accessibility to the end-users.\nLion Electric had $29 million in revenue in 2020 and expects $204 million in 2021. It forecasts revenue to jump to $3.6 billion a few years later in 2024. Its current market cap is approximately $3.6 billion based on its current stock price of $18.33.\nLightning eMotors (GIK)\nLightning eMotors, formerly Lightning Systems, was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Loveland, Colorado. It provides fleet electrification for familiar commercial vehicle platforms by retrofitting them with its electric powertrains. Lightning eMotors produces electric fleet medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including delivery trucks, shuttle buses, passenger vans, ambulances, bucket trucks, chassis-cab models, and city transit buses. It focuses on urban commercial zero-emission vehicles with a full range of class 3 through class 7 battery-electric and fuel-cell electric vehicles.\nLighting eMotors helps commercial fleets achieve their sustainability goals by offering zero-emission battery-electric vans, trucks, and buses based on familiar, proven vehicles from manufacturers such as Ford and GM. It works with customers, to help them identify their unique commercial electric vehicle, charging, and grant support needs.\nThe Lightning products include integrated all-electric powertrains for the Ford Transit 350HD passenger and cargo vans, Ford E-450 shuttle bus and cutaway models, Ford F-59 step/food van, Ford F-550 cargo trucks and buses, Chevrolet 6500XD Low Cab Forward model, and 30-foot, 35-foot, and 40-foot transit buses.\nLightning has 120 vehicles on the road, and 1,500 vehicles already on order from customers. In addition to making vehicles and powertrains, Lightning also provides a full suite of charging solutions for customers.\nThe deal with GIK has an enterprise value of $650 million, although there is also an Earnout of 20.0% of total pro forma shares outstanding to Lightning eMotors shareholders if the stock crosses certain price thresholds.\nAt the current price, of $11.73, GIK has a market cap of approximately $1 billion, a little more than the original transaction valuation. Similar to XL Fleet, Lightning has the risk that retrofitting may only be an interim business opportunity until more EV trucks are produced.\nPublic Chinese EV Companies\nChina will be the biggest EV market opportunity, and EV start-ups may do better there because there isn't as much entrenched competition from domestic auto companies. China is already the largest EV market in the world, with almost a million EVs sold in 2019. Its EV market represents almost half of the global EV sales volume and is much larger than the U.S. market.\nThe Chinese government has ambitions to become a global leader in new energy vehicles. Soon after the coronavirus outbreak subsided within the country, Chinese authorities announced new policies to support the auto and electric vehicle industries.\nThese Chinese companies are traded through American depository shares (ADS) that contain certain risks. There are financial reporting and transparency risks with these companies, and on top of that, the newer companies are being classified as \"emerging growth\" companies that are already exempt from certain transparency requirements set out in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Like the previous EV stock, these stocks have also been very volatile.\nIn addition to legacy auto manufacturers like BYD, there are also three Chinese EV companies that are publicly traded through American depositary shares.\nBYD Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:BYDDY)\nBYD, which means build your dreams, is the automotive subsidiary of the Chinese multinational BYD Co Ltd. It was founded in January 2003, following BYD Company's acquisition of Tsinchuan Automobile Company. The company produces automobiles, buses, electric bicycles, forklifts, rechargeable batteries, and trucks. The current model range of automobiles includes electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and petrol-engined vehicles. Thirteen years ago, on the advice of his famously skeptical lieutenant, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett made a $232 million investment in BYD, a relatively unknown Chinese car company.\nBy parlaying BYD's rechargeable battery technology into a fast-growing carmaking operation, it gained a foothold in the fledgling electric vehicle market, building longer-lasting batteries and cheaper vehicles than American and Japanese manufacturers were managing to do at the time. In BYD, Buffett and Munger believed they had found a company with a shot at one day becoming the largest player in a global automobile market that was inevitably going electric.\nBYD's start to 2021 was strong with 19,871 plug-in electric cars sold in January in China, including hybrid plug-ins. That was a big increase over 2020 but not as much as 2019.\nLI Auto (LI)\nLixiang, formerly known as Chehejia (\"Car and Home\"), was founded in 2015 and went public in the U.S. on July 30th, 2020. It is a Beijing-based electric-vehicle startup with vertically integrated manufacturing. It designs, researches, manufactures, sells, and offers services featuring a few models of electric vehicles.\nThe company's SUVs are hybrids of a sort. They use electric motors (one on the front axle and one on the rear), but those motors are powered by a combination of a 40.5kWh battery packanda 1.2-liter turbocharged engine paired to a 45-liter fuel tank and a 100kW electric generator, which generates power for the battery pack in real-time. The idea is that the car can be driven for about 100 miles on battery power alone, but it has a total range of nearly 500 miles when leveraging the combustion engine generator.\nThe Company's primary product is an SUV under its brand Li ONE. It also sells peripheral products and provides related services, such as charging stalls, vehicle internet connection services, and extended lifetime warranties. Li Auto is looking to sell a variety of SUVs built on its hybrid technology that range from around $21,000 to about $70,000. The company started shipping its first model in late 2019. It's a midsize SUV is well-appointed and has lots of touchscreens and technology. A full-size premium version is planned for release in 2022.\nDeliveries of Li ONEs were 14,464 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a 67.0% quarter-over-quarter increase and setting a new quarterly record. Deliveries for the full year 2020 reached 32,624 vehicles. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $635 million.\nLI auto went public on July 30th, 2020, raising $1.1 billion at an initial price of $15.50 per share but quickly reached almost $24. It is currently valued at approximately $37 billion at a price of approximately $25.72 per share.\nXPeng (XPEV)\nXiaopeng (XPeng) Motors is a Chinese electric vehicle and technology company that designs and manufactures smart cars. It was founded in 2015 and went public on August 27, 2020, using American depository shares, raising about $1 billion. To date, it has raised about $2.6 billion.\nXPeng aims its EVs at technology-savvy middle-class Chinese consumers, with prices ranging from $22,000 to $45,000 after government subsidies. In some ways, it is a Tesla knock-off at a much lower price. XPeng started production of the G3 in November 2018, and as of July 31, 2020, delivered 18,741. It started production of the P7 and began delivery in May 2020, and as of July 31, 2020, it had delivered 1,966 EVs. The P7 has a range of more than 400 miles. It plans to launch a third Smart EV, a sedan, in 2021. The G3 was among the top-three best-selling electric SUVs in China in 2019.\nXPeng is interesting because it has a platform strategy and is moving aggressively into autonomous driving. It uses a platform strategy to expand product offerings by launching one Smart EV model each year to broaden the addressable market. It builds new models on two highly flexible Smart EV platforms, called David and Edward, respectively. The David platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,600 millimeters to 2,800 millimeters, and the Edward platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,800 millimeters to 3,100 millimeters. It also adopted a platform approach for software systems.\nXPeng claims to be developing an autonomous driving capability for its EVs. The P7 is the first production vehicle to feature the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Xavier system-on-a-chip (SoC) autonomous driving platform. The company's Smart Electric Platform Architecture (SEPA) runs on 2 chips - NVIDIA for the XPILOT and Qualcomm's Snapdragon™ 820A for intelligent services and infotainment, including cameras inside and outside, radars, HD-map, and ultrasonic sensors. Like Tesla, it claims it can create sufficiently-autonomous driving without lidar.\nTo enhance brand recognition and allow more people to experience its Smart EVs, it deployed a small number of Smart EVs in a ride-hailing service in Guangzhou on a trial basis, but it has no current plan to scale up a ride-hailing service.\nXpeng sees first-quarter 2021 deliveries rising 450% year-over-year to 12,500 vehicles. Revenues are expected to increase 533% from a year ago. The company didn't provide bottom-line estimates for the quarter, but will likely post another net loss as it ramps up manufacturing, invests in R&D, and builds out a new manufacturing plant set to open in 2022.\nXpeng reported selling 12,964 vehicles in Q4 2020, up 303% from a year ago. It delivered a total of 27,041 vehicles in 2020, up 112%. It makes the P7 sedan, a rival to the made-in-China Tesla Model 3, and the small G3 SUV.\nThe stock opened on August 27, 2020 at a price of $15 and a valuation of $11 billion, but its stock jumped more than 40% shortly after. Its current valuation is about $35 billion at a stock price of approximately $36.13 per share. It had about $300 million in revenue in 2019 with a loss of about $500 million.\nNio (NIO)\nUnlike previous companies, Nio has been a public company for some time. It originally went public in the U.S. back in September of 2018, selling IPO shares at $6.26 and raising $1 billion.\nNio's IPO was far from smooth. After going public at $6.26 per share, it traded down to nearly $1. Then in the middle of the coronavirus outbreak, Nio received a much-needed investment of $1 billion from investors, including state-backed entities.\nNio designs, jointly manufactures, and sells smart and connected premium electric vehicles, attempting to develop next-generation technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving, and artificial intelligence. Joint manufacturing means that it uses a state-owned contract manufacturer to build its cars.\nNio plans to provide customers with comprehensive, convenient, and innovative charging solutions and other user-centric services. It began deliveries of the ES8, a 7-seater high-performance premium electric SUV in China in June 2018, and its variant, the six-seater ES8, in March 2019. Nio officially launched the ES6, a 5-seater high-performance premium electric SUV, in December 2018 and began deliveries in June 2019. It officially launched the EC6, a 5-seater smart premium electric Coupe SUV, in December 2019 with deliveries in 2020.\nNio sold 17,353 EVs in Q4/2020 and 43,728 for the year. It warned a shortage in chips and batteries will force a production slowdown to 7,500 a month in Q2 from 10,000 vehicles a month in February.\nNio currently trades at more than $43 per share, including a big jump recently, for a valuation of approximately $48 billion. It had revenue of $2.3 billion in 2019 for a loss of $3.8 billion.\nSummary\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this should provide exciting new investment opportunities. However, the investment terrain is complex. There are dozens of new start-ups where the public can now invest that were previously exclusively venture capital investment opportunities. Many of these are following different roads to success. There are legacy auto manufacturers that could prosper or get destroyed in this transition. There are some exciting new EV company opportunities in China. And then there is Tesla.\nThis EV roadmap is intended to help investors explore different roads to investment by explaining the basic strategies for these EV companies. These roads can have different opportunities and risks, and the roadmap helps to frame these. Above all, valuation is an overriding risk that is highlighted throughout this article.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":353119696,"gmtCreate":1616468428115,"gmtModify":1704794482922,"author":{"id":"3565231922969401","authorId":"3565231922969401","name":"MJ89","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51550e2d93895db65c382352cc432f93","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3565231922969401","authorIdStr":"3565231922969401"},"htmlText":"The&nbsp;Future","listText":"The&nbsp;Future","text":"The Future","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353119696","repostId":1196402560,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196402560","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616134696,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196402560?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-19 14:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"New Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196402560","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, an","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>It's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.</li>\n <li>Last October, I wrote a popular article providing a roadmap for investing in electric vehicles, but since then, so much has changed: new entrants, new strategies, fluctuating valuations, etc.</li>\n <li>So, I updated and greatly expanded the previous EV investment roadmap.</li>\n <li>This update includes a deeper look at valuations for 23 EV companies with revenue projections, when available.</li>\n <li>It also classifies these EV companies into their primary market categories and summarizes their different strategies.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb96acc615cba9c7842860658c019ab1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\">Photo by Sven Loeffler/iStock via Getty Images\nMy article&nbsp;Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap&nbsp;published five months ago, was popular, and some followers have requested an update. Many new EV companies entered the market, most of them through SPACs. Valuations fluctuated wildly, and there has been a great deal of publicity around these companies.\nThis new updated EV investment roadmap is greatly expanded. In addition to updating the strategies and progress of companies previously discussed, I expanded the number of companies covered. This article also groups EV companies into their primary markets, enabling better comparisons and evaluation of market opportunities. In addition, it includes a comparative valuation chart showing every company's market cap with a comparison to projected revenue, where possible. This takes advantage (good or bad) of looking at the long-term revenue forecasts provided in SPAC mergers that public companies can't make.\nIn addition to the EV manufacturers discussed here, there are also EV investment opportunities in charging station companies, battery manufacturers, and battery materials companies. These were covered in the original roadmap and may also be updated in a later article.\nApproximately 2 million EVs were sold in 2019, and although the number declined along with all auto sales in 2020, it is forecasted to increase in 2021 and reach 8-10 million by 2025. Some forecast that EV sales will be greater than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2030, or even earlier. The automobile market appears to be moving toward a historical transformation, and exceptional investment gains can be made by anticipating new emerging industries and investing in the eventual winners of those new industries. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)are obvious examples. Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to create a new emerging industry.\nThere are also significant risks. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to be released in the next three years, which will drive rapid growth in EV sales. However, the expected sales from these new models, as well as the increasing expectations from Tesla, most likely exceed the total projected market. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the companies covered here won't exist five years from now. It reminds me of the internet bubble of the late 1990s when scores of internet-based companies went public with little or no revenue. Almost all of these failed within three years -- however, a couple, including Amazon, went on to enormous success.\nEVs provide a major new investment opportunity with high risks. To succeed, you need to have a clear EV investment roadmap.\nSo, how can you invest in this new emerging market? The EV landscape is complex and investment opportunities are varied. While Tesla is the unquestioned leader in EVs, some consider it overvalued and unlikely to show exceptional returns to new investors. The current U.S. legacy automakers are committed to introducing many new EVs in the next few years, and they have some entrenched advantages with volume manufacturing capabilities, a dealer infrastructure, and loyal customers. There are exciting new EV start-ups in the U.S. that have come public this year, mostly through Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), and there are several interesting publicly traded Chinese EV manufacturers.\nThis new roadmap for EV investment classifies companies into three primary markets segments:\n<ul>\n <li>TheConsumer Retailsegment includes EVs sold to consumers individually, such as SUVs, pickup trucks, sedans, etc.</li>\n <li>TheCommercial Deliverysegment includes local delivery EV vans and trucks sold to fleets.</li>\n <li>TheMedium- and Long-Haul Truckingsegment includes heavier Class 4 - Class 8 trucks, as well as special industrial vehicles.</li>\n</ul>\nIn addition, it categorizesLegacy ManufacturersandChinese EV Companies. This enables investors to evaluate investment opportunities by considering unique opportunities within each market segment.\nThere is an enormous amount of investment optimism for EVs, and retail investors have been aggressively buying into EV stocks with seemingly no regard for valuation. Then there is the additional challenge of valuing companies with no revenue, especially those coming public through SPACs. So, valuation is an important investment consideration.\nSo let's start by looking at an overview of comparative EV valuations.\nEV Investment Valuation Overview\nThe following chart summarizes valuations for 23 EV companies, including several legacy companies. For SPACs, market cap estimates are computed using the pro forma number of shares at closing, otherwise using the valuation of the SPAC prior to closing drastically underestimates the valuation, which may be misleading to novice investors. Price/Sales ratios (market cap divided by revenue) are used to compare valuations. As a benchmark, current P/S ratios vary. For example, auto and truck companies have a ratio of 2.7X. Software companies have the highest ratios of over 10X.\nIn the chart, companies that currently have revenue show current P/S ratios. Where projections are available, projected P/S ratios are computed. A note of caution, however. Many of the EV companies came public through SPACs and published their projections (which public companies cannot do), and many of these are likely to prove unrealistic.\nAll of the longer-term revenue projections come from the company (C) forecasts with a SPAC. Some of these may turn out to be accurate, not many are most likely unrealistic. Some, like Lucid, Faraday, and Arrival forecast hitting more than $10 billion in revenue in a few years, when it took Tesla more than 10. Things are different now and they might achieve these, but they could also find that it will take longer to complete development, ramp up production, and create enough customer demand. Many companies may also find that there will be significant capital requirements to achieve this type of growth, and shareholders will be diluted.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc360dfa7de01516b7f68d5962cf3017\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"883\">\nTesla, the \"gold standard\" in EVs, has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, which many people believe is overvalued. Its market cap is approximately 20X 2020 revenue and 10X estimated 2022 revenue.\nTesla (TSLA)\nIn the U.S., and to a lesser extent in China, Tesla is the dominant EV provider. It has approximately 60% of the U.S. EV market and about 20% of the market in China. I own a Tesla and love it, but an investment in Tesla stock requires getting comfortable with its valuation. Tesla has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, although declining lately, which some consider still overvalued while others see upside potential.\nThe investment opportunity with Tesla is based on the expectation that it will continue to dominate the EV market, or at least maintain significant market share, despite much greater competition from the expected introduction of hundreds of new EV models in the next few years.\nThere is a great deal already published about Tesla, so I'll move on.\nLegacy Automakers\nSome people think that the legacy automakers will simply fade away. Historically, that was the case in some other industries, but it is not going to happen to most automakers. They are not standing still waiting to become obsolete. Most have aggressive strategies to replace ICE vehicles with EVs. GM plans to invest $27 billion and build and launch as many as 30 new EV models by 2025. Ford plans to invest $29 billion in EVs by 2025 and launch as many as 16 EVs in the next two years. Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY)has also committed billions to develop new EVs.\nThe competitive advantage that legacy automakers have in selling their new EVs is their dealer network. Will new EV customers prefer to continue going to their regular auto dealer to buy their new EV?\nAlmost all legacy automakers worldwide are developing and launching EVs including Volkswagen, Peugeot, Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi, Hyundai/Kia. Let's look a little more closely at GM and Ford as the leaders in the U.S.\nGeneral Motors (GM)\nGM has committed to introducing 20 new electric vehicles by 2023, including EVs across Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC, and Buick. It recently announced that it has already sold out the first-year production of its Hummer electric pickup. By mid-decade, it expects to sell a million EVs per year in its two largest markets: North America and China. As a reference point, Tesla reported deliveries of 367,500 vehicles globally in 2019.\nGM has a solid platform strategy for its EVs. It plans on building its EVs using five interchangeable drive units and three different motors from its Ultium Drive System platform. Ultium energy options range from 50 to 200 kWh, which could enable an estimated range of up to 400 miles. Most of its EVs will have 400-volt battery packs and up to 200 kW fast-charging capability while the truck platform will have 800-volt battery packs and 350 kW fast-charging capabilities.\nThe key building blocks of the Ultium battery system are large-scale, high-energy cells. Engineered in partnership with LG Energy Solutions, they use both advanced chemistry and a smart cell design that's optimized for a broad portfolio of EVs. GM engineers and scientists are actively researching and testing new elements in battery chemistry to lower costs and improve charge times. Ultium can contain either vertically- or horizontally-stacked cells to integrate into vehicle design: vertically for trucks, SUVs, and crossovers, or horizontally for cars and performance vehicles. As new chemistry is developed and becomes available, the battery management system could digitally update the modules.\nGM also has other EV opportunities with its BrightDrop commercial EV service and its Cruise subsidiary. BrightDrop will not just sell delivery EVs, it will provide an entire service platform for commercial delivery customers. Its set of electric delivery vehicles starts with the EV600 and includes the BrightDrop EP1, a pod-like electric pallet. SeeGeneral Motors' Aggressive EV/AV Strategies May Payoff Big.\nWith its highest stock price of $61.65, GM's current market cap is approximately $89 billion, increasing primarily because of its progress with EVs. This approximately 3X valuation in 2018, but still only 13% of Tesla.\nFord (F)\nFord is also investing heavily in EVs. It just introduced the Mustang Mach-E, a battery-powered crossover with sports car styling, and plans to introduce an all-electric version of its best-selling F-150 pickup later this year. Also, planned is an electric edition of the full-size Transit van, which has been popular in the commercial delivery market. Ford has confirmed plans to build a luxury Lincoln crossover on a battery-powered platform provided by Rivian. The automaker also plans to introduce two new midsize electric crossovers, one each for the Ford and Lincoln brands by 2023.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd8523e15bccc57790940d4218f7b94e\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"1080\">Mustang Mach-E. Source: Ford\nFord's market cap is approximately $51 billion, twice its previous market cap, and also increasing.\nConsumer Retail EV Companies\nThe consumer retail market has some unique characteristics for new EV companies. Sales are made individually, not in fleets. This diversifies the risk upon launch because only a sufficient number of customers need to be attracted to the new EV. A wave of popularity can provide terrific momentum.\nHowever, the lack of a dealer network can be an impediment. Selling EVs directly to consumers instead of through dealers is prohibited in most states. By law, auto manufacturers can't compete with franchised dealers. These are laws that go back many decades to protect dealers. This can be a major impediment for new companies without established independent dealer franchises. So, new AV companies. like Tesla, need to sell their vehicles online. Tesla has successfully done this, but it took a lot of work and time. Lack of a dealer network also creates impediments in service.\nIn addition, over the next 4-5 years, autonomous capabilities will be increasingly important to luxury vehicles. This may prove to be a challenge to start-up EV companies because they can't afford to develop this technology.\nLet's look closer at the alternative consumer retail EV investments.\nLucid Motors (CCIV)\nLucid was founded in 2007 under the name Atieva and originally focused on building electric vehicle batteries and powertrains for other vehicle manufacturers. The company rebranded itself as Lucid Motors in October 2016 and shifted its strategy to develop an all-electric, high-performance, luxury vehicle. Shortly after that, it encountered financial difficulties and struggled to get short-term funding. In 2018 it raised more than $1 billion in investment, primarily from Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund, and gave up a majority of the company.\nLucid Motors reached an agreement to become a publicly-traded company through a merger with the SPAC Churchill Capital IV Corp., in one of the largest deals SPAC EV deals. The combined company, in which Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund will continue to be the largest shareholder, had a transaction equity value of $11.75 billion (for $10/share). At the same time, it closed a PIPE investment priced at $15 a share, giving it an implied pro forma equity value of $24 billion. Rumors about this deal circulated before the transaction was formally announced, making it one of the most anticipated SPAC deals. The hype and speculation drove up the stock price of Churchill Capital IV Corp. from its opening price of $10 a share to almost $60. I believe that some of this may have been driven by novice SPAC investors who didn't realize that the valuation of CCIV didn't include the eventual valuation of Lucid. The share price dropped more than 30% after the details of the deal were announced. It's also likely that Lucid renegotiated the terms of the merger based on the price jump.\nThe company's first product is the Lucid Air, a well-equipped luxury electric vehicle that features 406 miles of projected range and 480 horsepower with a starting price of $77,400, or $69,900 after the U.S. Federal Tax Credit of $7,500. This new Lucid Air model is positioned as a high-performance, ultra-efficient luxury EV sedan in a line of future vehicles that are expected to include Lucid Air Touring, Grand Touring, and Dream Edition versions.\nThe company plans to begin production and deliveries of the Lucid Air in North America in the second half of 2021. Previously the company aimed to begin deliveries earlier in 2021. It intends to sell the car in Europe in 2022, followed by China in 2023. Lucid vehicles will be produced at its new factory in Casa Grande, Arizona. The company plans to expand the factory in phases in the coming years to have the capacity to produce 365,000 units per year at scale. The initial phase of the $700 million factory construction was completed late last year and will have the capacity to produce 30,000 vehicles a year.\nLucid also apparently has a commitment to build an assembly plant in Saudi Arabia, which was rumored to be a condition of the $1 billion investment from the Saudi public fund. The Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund also provided $600 million in bridge financing and invested in the SPAC deal as well. So, while this assembly plant may be expensive and may not be critical, it will most likely need to happen.\nLucid has ambitious plans to achieve $14 billion in revenue in 2025, and its current stock price at $29.17, which gives it a market cap of more than $46 billion, may already reflect those ambitions. Its market cap is roughly the same as Ford.\nFisker (FSR)\nFisker, which had its origins with Fisker Automotive, is an interesting story that ended in bankruptcy. Henrik Fisker originally co-founded Fisker Automotive in 2007. He was responsible for designing many premium cars such as the Aston Martin. Subsequently, Fisker Automotive had to deal with a Tesla lawsuit against Fisker Automotive alleging it stole Tesla's technology, a controversial $528.7 million conditional loan from the Department of Energy, a recall of its battery produced by A123, and the loss of several hundred vehicles in hurricane Sandy. Henrik Fisker resigned in March 2013 because of disagreements over business strategy and in November 2013, Fisker filed its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case.\nHowever, Henrik Fisker retained the Fisker brand and trademarks, and in 2016 he started another electric vehicle company named Fisker Inc. with the Fisker brand and trademarks. In 2019, Fisker shifted from developing a sports car with a solid-state battery to the Ocean SUV featuring a lithium-ion battery, which it later abandoned for a solid-state battery.\nFisker is positioning itself in a unique segment for those who want the most environmentally friendly EV. While this may be an early growth segment for EVs, it's difficult to estimate its eventual competitive advantage and the size of this environmentally-friendly market segment.\nThe Ocean is a crossover made of recycled metal and plastic with an expected base price of $37,499, and an expected lease of less than $400 a month. Fisker's plan is essentially a lease-only business model that lets customers keep a vehicle for years or return it at any time. It aims to source motors, batteries, and other components from technical partnerships with automakers and will outsource production from existing auto plants. Fisker is currently taking reservations at $250 for the Ocean. It also announced an agreement with Foxconn to jointly develop a vehicle pioneering a new market segment to be sold globally under the Fisker brand commencing in Q4 2023. at the end of 2022. Production will start at Magna Steyr's manufacturing facilities in Europe. At the end of February 2021, it had 12,467 cancellable reservations.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/924a617c90fc3276d7bdab8c64ebfdcf\" tg-width=\"744\" tg-height=\"389\">Fisker Ocean. Source: Fisker\nFisker went public using a SPAC (Spartan Energy). The original combination with SPAQ in October 2020 was valued at $2.9 billion with a cash investment of approximately $1 billion. The stock currently trades at approximately $21 per share, after reaching a high of $28.50, from the original price of $10, which is a market cap of $4.6 billion. Fisker projects $3.3 billion in revenue in 2023. It had almost $1 billion in cash at the end of 2020 and expected to use almost half of this in 2021: $250 million on operating expenses and $250 million in capital investments. If the Ocean is delayed into 2023, Fisker risks missing its revenue objective and will potentially need additional cash to complete development and launch.\nFaraday Future (PSAC)\nFaraday Future was originally established in May 2014 by Chinese businessman Jia Yueting. It is headquartered in Los Angeles and has offices in Silicon Valley, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu. Faraday Future also had a turbulent history. In 2016, it struggled financially, and in 2017 some key executives departed over a dispute about financial issues. They later founded Canoo.\nIn December 2018 the company announced layoffs due to a cash crunch and financial troubles. The company's founder Jia Yueting filed for personal bankruptcy in the United States' federal court in Delaware on October 14, 2019. Following Jia's personal bankruptcy, he decided to step down from his role as CEO of Faraday Future in order to assume a new position as the Chief Product and User Officer. He was replaced as CEO by Carsten Breitfeld, the former CEO at rival electric vehicle startup Byton.\nSomehow, Faraday was able to raise $2.3 billion in private funding over 5 rounds from a variety of investors. In early 2018, it received $1.5 billion in funding from an undisclosed investor from Hong Kong.\nFaraday's flagship product offering will be the FF 91, featuring 1,050 HP, 0-60 mph in less than 2.4 seconds, zero gravity seats with the largest 60-degree reclining angles, and a user experience designed to create a mobile, connected, and luxurious living space. The FF 91 is targeted to launch in 2022.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e38bfb3211c72bb73bc26f2ebe296fe\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"854\">FF 91. Source: Faraday Future\nIts strategic partners include one of China's top three OEMs and a critical Chinese city, which the company believes will help establish its presence in the Chinese vehicle market.\nFaraday Future plans several cars based on its Variable Platform Architecture. FF 91 is the first production vehicle and flagship model. Pricing will range between $120,000 and upwards of $200,000, which places it against formidable opponents. Faraday Future is already looking forward to expanding its range with a pair of smaller models named FF 81 and FF 71. The FF 81 is planned to be priced at $75,000 to 95,000 with a 2023 release. The FF 71 is planned to be priced at $45,000 to $65,000 with a planned release of 2024.\nThe Primary Manufacturing Facility for FF 91 is in Hanford, CA with contract manufacturing for future models in Gunsan, South Korea.\nFaraday Future is planning high-Level automation with a Level-3 capable system using a redundant safety architecture based on NVIDIA Xavier System-on-a-chip. It will be capable of highway auto-drive and hardware ready for advanced auto-drive. It is targeting full autonomous valet parking &amp; summon in any parking lot or structure. Eventually, it expects full auto-drive, including full 360˚ sensor coverage for advanced auto-drive &amp; auto-park features.\nIn January 2021, Faraday Future announced that the company would go public through a reverse merger with the special purpose acquisition company Property Solutions Acquisition Corp. (PSAC). The combined company will be valued at $3.4 billion. Faraday Future is expected to set up contract manufacturing operations in China through their partnership with Geely. Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn is also expected to serve as an additional strategic partner.\nFaraday Future projects $10.5 billion in revenue in 2024 and $21.5 billion in 2025. Revenue is expected to start in 2022 with the delivery of 2,400 vehicles for $504 million. Most likely these projections could prove to be optimistic. At a current stock price of approximately $12.80, it has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nLordstown Motors (RIDE)\nLordstown Motors based in Lordstown, Ohio, was originally founded in 2018 by Steve Burns, the former CEO of Workhorse Group. The company licensed technology from Workhorse in return for royalties and a 10% ownership. Lordstown is named after the famous GM Lordstown manufacturing plant, which it acquired in November 2019 in an unusual transaction. GM announced that it was closing the plant and was under a great deal of pressure for that decision. So, GM \"sold\" the plant to a company that was renamed Lordstown for an estimated $20 million that it loaned to the acquiring company. Subsequently, the sale was redefined to be part of a $75 million investment by GM, of which $50 million was an in-kind exchange for the plant.\nLordstown went public through the SPAC DiamondPeak Holdings Corp. in 2020. It currently has more than 400 employees.\nIts first product is the Lordstown Endurance, a full-sized EV pickup truck. Lordstown is positioning Endurance for the pickup fleet market segment. The expected price is $52,000+, and it claimed to have more than 100,000 pre-orders by January 2021. However, a recent research article published by a short seller claimed \"Our research has revealed that Lordstown's order book consists of fake or entirely non-binding orders, from customers that generally do not even have fleets of vehicles.\" Lordstown is disputing that article.\nIt believes the fleet pickup market segment is underserved with no current EV-focused competition. It estimates that the full-sized pick-up truck fleet market is 1.2 million vehicles per year in the U.S., but it's more fragmented than other truck fleets. Pickup \"fleets\" tend to be much smaller and local, so there may not be much of a market distinction for a small company buying several EV pickups from a traditional auto dealer. About half of the total U.S. pickup market is classified as fleet sales, meaning more than one.\nEven though Lordstown is targeting the commercial fleet market, it is a similar product to the Ford EV F-150. So I classify it in the consumer EV category. It is a class 2 vehicle. Lordstown also may enter the SUV market in the longer-term.\nThe Endurance will compete against future models from Rivian and Tesla, as well as Ford and GM in ICE pick-ups and their upcoming EV pick-ups. Ford plans on selling its EV F-150 in mid-2022. Initial production of the Endurance is expected in the second half of 2021, so it may have a short market advantage. Nevertheless, it forecasts selling 65,000 vehicles in 2023 and 107,000 in 2024. These estimates could be a large percentage of the EV pick-up market in those years.\nAt the SPAC merger, the implied valuation for Lordstown was $1.6 billion, including a $500 million PIPE and the $75 million by GM. Lordstown's financial projections appear to be aggressive. It projects to start shipping the Endurance in late 2021 with projected revenue in 2022 of $1.7 billion, increasing to $5.8 billion in 2024. Its stock price at approximately $13.60 values the company at a market cap of approximately $2.2 billion. The value of the company depends on the likelihood of achieving its projections.\nA fleet sales strategy makes sense for Lordstown since it would be too expensive to build a retail sales and service capability. However, it's not clear that this will become a distinct competitive advantage. Some small fleets may still prefer to buy their EV pickups from established local dealers with service capabilities.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nCanoo started as Evelozcity in 2017 and rebranded as Canoo in the spring of 2019. Canoo is a Los Angeles-based company that develops electric vehicles. It has over 350 employees. Canoo has designed a modular electric platform purpose-built to deliver maximum vehicle interior space, which is adaptable to support a wide range of vehicle applications for consumers and businesses. Canoo expects to launch its first consumer model in 2022, simply named the Canoo that will be available by subscription, followed shortly after by a multi-purpose delivery vehicle and a sports vehicle, each built off of the same underlying platform. Canoo went public using a SPAC (Hennessy Capital Acquisition) and now trades as GOEV.\nCanoo's all-electric skateboard-like platform is designed to support both consumer retail and commercial vehicle configurations. The EV leverages Canoo's flat skateboard architecture for a high level of usable interior space. Its commercial vehicle program, expected in 2023, addresses a projected $50B+ last-mile delivery market with an EV platform that maximizes cargo volume.\nHyundai Motor Group said it would jointly develop an electric vehicle platform with the company.\nCanoo's platform strategy is interesting. It could be used as an EV platform for custom fleets of delivery vehicles. It has no AV development, but it claims to be \"AV Ready\" which could be useful for AV companies wanting to build custom AV delivery fleets.\nIts all-electric multi-purpose delivery vehicle is expected to be priced starting at approximately $33,000. It is based on Canoo's proprietary electric platform and will be offered in two initial size variants, with others to follow. Limited availability will begin in 2022, with scaled production and launch planned for 2023. Customers can pre-order the multi-purpose delivery vehicle for a refundable deposit of $100 per vehicle\nIt plans to offer two multi-purpose delivery vehicles: the MPDV1 and the larger MPDV2. The first has a 200-foot cargo volume and a range of 130-200 miles. It offers more capacity than today's ICE delivery vehicles at an affordable price with urban mobility enabled by a space-efficient footprint. The vehicle is also designed to fit within many height-restricted areas like parking garages.\nThe MPDV2 has a cargo volume of 450 feet and a range of 90-190 miles. Its roof and step-in height enable individuals to easily walk-in the vehicle and accommodate a standing position while inside.\nThe original SPAC transaction provided approximately $600 million, with a pro forma equity value of approximately $2.4 billion. Like other SPAC mergers, its stock price has fluctuated. It currently trades at about $15.90 per share for a market cap of approximately $3.7 billion. Canoo projects $2.0 billion in revenue in 2025 from about $500 million in engineering services, $1.2 billion from its consumer vehicle subscriptions, and the remainder from its commercial program. Canoo expects revenue of more than $300 million in 2022 after the launch of its lifestyle consumer vehicle.\nSince its first products are aimed at consumers, as is most of its forecasted 2025 revenue, I categorize it primarily as a consumer EV company. However, I think the design of that Canoo vehicle may not attract enough customers. More importantly, its subscription service way of selling its EV to consumers is risky. I think it has more potential in the commercial market, however, a dual strategy (consumer and commercial) is challenging. I like its skateboard platform design and that could prove to be a competitive advantage.\nRivian\nAlthough not yet public, I include Rivian because it has plans for an IPO as soon as Sept 2021, although it could slip into 2022. There are rumors that the company is targeting a market valuation of approximately $50B. Rivian has already raised more than $8 billion to date from Amazon, Ford, T. Rowe Price, and others.\nRivian has developed and vertically integrated a connected electric platform that can be flexibly applied to a range of applications, including the company's adventure products, as well as B2B products such as the Amazon last-mile delivery vans. The company's initial products, the R1T and R1S, provide a combination of performance, off-road capability, and utility. These vehicles will be produced at Rivian's manufacturing plant in Normal, Ill., with customer deliveries expected to begin in summer 2021. The launch of the R1S three-row electric SUV will follow in August.\nAdditional lower-priced models are being planned. The expected R2 series would include at least two smaller electric vehicles to coincide with the smaller platform, then another platform for R3.\nCommercial Delivery EV Companies\nEV truck companies differ based on the type of truck they are developing. The technology and markets are very different, so I separate them into two categories. The first category includes commercial delivery vehicles.\nCompanies making EV delivery vehicles have some major advantages that could make them good investments. First, delivery vehicles typically travel less than 250 miles during a day, so they can be conveniently recharged overnight. Secondly, they are typically sold in large quantities to fleets. This means that building a retail sales infrastructure is not necessary. It only requires a small salesforce. In addition, maintenance can also be provided at the fleet's operational center, so not as many service centers are required.\nThe disadvantage in this market is that there are a relatively small number of customers that buy in large volumes, so if the EV manufacturer can't get enough large customers, they may not be able to stay in business. GM estimates the combined market opportunity for parcel and food delivery, as well as reverse logistics, in the U.S. will be more than $850 billion by 2025.\nThe commercial market is expected to be a major growth area for EVs. Other start-up automakers like Rivian as well as legacy automakers such as Ford, Daimler, and GM have announced plans to enter the segment. GM recently announced its BrightDrop ecosystem for commercial customers that includes an all-new electric delivery van, the EV600 available by the end of 2021, as well as an integrated autonomous pallet and related services.\nThis group of EV companies focuses primarily on commercial delivery. In general, these are in the light-duty trucks category, although it also includes some medium-duty trucks. This generally includes the following commercial truck classes:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 1: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 0-6,000 pounds or 0-2,722 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 2: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 6,001-10,000 pounds or 2,722-4,536 kilograms.1</li>\n <li>Class 3: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 10,001-14,000 pounds or 4,536-6,350 kilograms.</li>\n</ul>\nIt can also include somewhat larger medium-duty EV delivery trucks:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.</li>\n</ul>\nEV delivery trucks also have an advantage over ICE vehicles because they can have a greater delivery storage space. Smaller buses and transit vehicles are also included in this category.\nLast-mile package delivery is not an immediate-term autonomous vehicle opportunity because it requires a delivery person to be on the truck anyway.\nWorkhorse Group (WKHS)\nWorkhorse has been a public company for ten years. Originally AMP Electric Vehicles, it was established in 2007 as a developmental-stage vehicle electrification company, focusing on conversions. AMP Electric Vehicles went public in 2010 trading on the OTC market under the AMPD symbol. When the economic benefits of conversion became less certain, it pivoted away from passenger vehicles and began to focus on electrifying commercial vehicles. AMP acquired the Workhorse brand and the Workhorse custom chassis assembly plant in Union City. In March of 2013, AMP formally changed its name to Workhorse Group Incorporated.\nThe Company designs and builds a last-mile delivery electric vehicle. The C-Series EVs cover the larger size of commercial delivery vehicles in Classes 3-5. As part of its solutions, it also develops cloud-based, real-time telematics performance monitoring systems. It sells its vehicles to fleet customers directly and through its primary distributor, Ryder Systems. It is currently focused on bringing the C-Series electric delivery truck to market and fulfilling the existing backlog of orders.\nThe C-Series looks like a viable EV replacement for the 350,000 last-mile delivery vehicles sold in the U.S. annually. It recently announced an increased driving range from 100 miles to 160, which should open more market opportunities. It has a viable short-term go-to-market strategy selling fleets to delivery companies. It currently has test vehicles with UPS, DHL, FedEx, Amazon, and Walmart.\nWorkhorse recently lost out on the United States Postal Services Next Generation Delivery Vehicle project, however, it is in the process of challenging this decision. Additionally, its investment in Lordstown also provides an indirect investment opportunity. On November 7, 2019, the Company entered a transaction with Lordstown Motors to grant LMC a perpetual and worldwide license to certain intellectual property relating to its W-15 electric pickup truck platform and related technology in exchange for royalties, equity interest (approximately 10%) in LMC, and other considerations. This was a $320 million asset for Workhorse at the end of 2020.\nWorkhorse received a significant increase in orders in Q4/2020 but built just seven trucks in the fourth quarter due to production systems and supply chain issues. Workhorse plans to continue to take it slow, striving to build three of its composite-body battery-electric trucks a day in March with a plan to reach 10 trucks a day by the end of June. This makes its original 2021 goal of producing 1,800 trucks unlikely. It partnered with Hitachi and Hitachi Capital America (\"HCA\") to improve the Company's manufacturing, operational, and supply chain capabilities as well as to develop a national dealer network to support Workhorse's sales with vehicle financing options for both dealers and customers.\nWorkhorse has a market cap of approximately $1.9 billion. While Workhorse had ongoing revenue, unlike many other new EV companies, its revenue is still insignificant. It had a revenue of $1.4 million in 2020 and $377,000 in 2019. It has a backlog of over 8,000 vehicles but doesn't expect to be able to build many of those in 2021. It raised $270 million in capital over several financings, providing the Company with additional capital to build its backlog. It had cash of $215 million as of March 1, 2021. Because Workhorse is a traditional public company, it hasn't made long-term financial projections like SPAC-based companies.\nElectric Last Mile (FIII)\nElectric Last Mile, based in Troy Michigan, was founded by Jason Luo, former CEO of Ford China before it was acquired by China's Ningbo Joyson Electronic for $920 million in 2016, including James Taylor, former CEO of GM's Hummer brand and former CEO of electric car maker Karma Automotive. Taylor serves as the company's top executive with Luo as the company's chairman.\nThe company plans to launch a small electric delivery van (class 1-2), called the UD-1, in the third quarter of 2021, and then introduce an Urban Utility vehicle (Class 2-3) in 2022. These are expected to compete with Workhorse, Rivian, Canoo, as well as the Ford eTransit and the GMC BV1, none of which is expected to be a Class 1 vehicle.\nThe company says it has 30,000 preorders for its van, representing more than $1 billion in sales. Electric Last Miles vehicles will be based on Sokon's commercial van made in China through a joint venture with Dongfeng Automobile Co Ltd. in order to accelerate development time.\nElectric Last Mile (ELM) is expected to manufacture the vans in a former General Motors Co. Hummer plant in Mishawaka, Ind., that the company is acquiring from China's Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co. Ltd. The plant has the capacity to produce 100,000 vehicles annually with plans to build approximately 4,000 UD-1 vans by the end of 2021. The UD-1 has a starting price of $32,500 and a range of 150 miles. The battery for the vehicle is expected to be supplied by the Chinese battery company CATL.\nELM believes that it has a competitive advantage because its first vehicle, the ELM Urban Delivery, is scheduled to be available in 2021. It is based on a proven, existing platform developed and sold by Sokon Group in the Asian market, where there are 30,000 of these electric delivery vehicles driving 1.5 million miles every day. At the close of the business combination, ELM will be an independent, U.S. company producing electric vehicles in the U.S. with Sokon Group providing access to its know-how, parts supply, and field and service data.\nELM expects that the Urban Delivery vehicle will be the first electric delivery vehicle coming to market in the class 1 category (GVW of 6,000 lbs or less) in the U.S. It will also have 35% more carrying volume compared to similar ICE delivery vehicles, a critical part of the value proposition. It also anticipates that its price and greater carrying volume will allow it to take market share from the class 2 category of vehicles as well.\nIts crossover product portfolio strategy targets commercial delivery vehicles spanning from class 1 to class 3, which represents over 80% of the last mile market.\nELM anticipates $122 million in revenue in 2021, rapidly increasing to $3 billion in 2025. The price of FIII stock increased immediately following its announcement with Electric Last Mile, rising more than 40% to $14.50, but now it has dropped closer to the original deal price to $10.25 for a market cap of approximately $1.5 billion.\nGreenPower Motor Company (GP)\nGreenPower Motor Company Inc. is a Canadian battery-electric bus manufacturer with multiple models of high- and low-floor vehicles, including transit buses, school buses, and shuttles. GreenPower offers commercial vehicles for delivery, public transit, schools, vanpooling, micro-transit, shuttles, and is developing a capability of autonomous operation. It went public on August 28, 2020.\nIn 2014 GreenPower launched its first purpose-built, battery-electric bus, the EV350, 40-foot transit bus. GreenPower received its first order in 2017 for ten EV350s from the City of Porterville, California.\nGreenPower's electric buses are purpose-built and designed to be all-electric, allowing it to put the battery and propulsion system in optimized locations that provide weight and structural advantages. Its primary EV is the EV Star with more than 120 vehicles delivered. It comes in several variations:\n<ul>\n <li>EV Star - Up to 19 passengers</li>\n <li>EV Star Plus - Up to 24 passengers</li>\n <li>EV Star ADA - Passenger and curbside lift for ADA</li>\n <li>EV Star Cargo - 5,000 pounds of load</li>\n <li>EV Star Cargo Plus - 570 cubic feet of cargo space.</li>\n</ul>\nIts EV school bus seats up to 90 students and has a range of up to 150 miles.\nGreenPower had revenue of $13.5 million in 2020 It has about $21 million in cash. It's an interesting alternative since it is already shipping EVs, has revenue, and also has a lower market cap of less than $1 billion. Since it did a traditional IPO, it hasn't published longer-term financial forecasts.\nArrival (CIIC)\nArrival was founded in 2015 in London to make a variety of commercial electric vehicles. It has approximately 1,200 employees across 11 cities in 8 countries. In November 2020, Arrival and the SPAC CIIG entered into a business combination agreement with an implied valuation of $5.39 billion.\nArrival plans on releasing four commercial EVs over the next few years.\n<ul>\n <li>Q4/2021: An electric bus for 8-125 passengers and a range of 240-400km</li>\n <li>Q3/2022: An electric delivery van with a payload of 975-2,000kg and a range of 150-340km</li>\n <li>2022: A larger electric van with a payload of 4,000 kg and a range of 190-400km</li>\n <li>2023: a small vehicle platform with a range of 100-300km.</li>\n</ul>\nThis mix provides a nice diversified portfolio of EVs. Arrival claims to have received orders from UPS for 10,000 vans. It plans a unique flexible manufacturing approach using micro-factories with each projected to manufacture 10,000 vans per year. All of its vehicles use a modular skateboard electric platform.\nArrival ambitiously projects $14.1 billion in revenue in 2024. Half of that revenue is expected from delivery vans, 22% from buses, and the rest from the large van and its small vehicle platform. With CIIC's stock price at $24.80 per share, Arrival's current market cap is relatively high at approximately $15.0 billion. Justifying its market cap depends on its ability to release, sell, and produce its four commercial EVs.\nProterra (ACTC)\nProterra is a commercial electric vehicle company with over a decade of production experience. The Company has designed an end-to-end, flexible technology platform that claims to deliver higher performance and a low total cost of ownership to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end customers.\nProterra, Inc., was originally founded in Golden, Colorado, by Dale Hill in 2004. Later the company wanted to take the lead in creating zero-emission, U.S.-based transit buses. In 2010 it moved its manufacturing plant from Golden, Colorado to Greenville, South Carolina. In 2015, Proterra was awarded a $3 million grant from the California Energy Commission to fund the design, development, and construction of the company's battery-electric transit bus manufacturing line in the City of Industry, California. It moved its headquarters from Greenville, South Carolina, to Burlingame, California, in October 2015. Proterra raised more than $600 million in funding.\nIt is going public through the SPAC ArcLight (ACTC) with a pro forma valuation of $1.6 billion. Upon completion of the transaction, Proterra expects to have up to $825 million in cash to fund growth initiatives, including R&amp;D and the expansion of its next-generation battery program.\nProterra has three complementary businesses:\n<ul>\n <li>Proterra Powered: Delivering battery systems and electrification solutions to commercial vehicle manufacturers</li>\n <li>Proterra Transit:Providing an electric transit bus OEMs</li>\n <li>Proterra Energy:Offering turnkey charging and energy management solutions.</li>\n</ul>\nThe company's battery systems have been proven in more than 16 million service miles driven by its fleet of transit vehicles and validated through partnerships with commercial vehicle OEMs. Proterra has produced and delivered more than 300 megawatt-hours of battery systems, more than 550 heavy-duty electric transit buses, and installed 54 megawatts of charging systems.\nProterra expected $193 million of revenue in 2020, with an estimated $750 million in existing orders and backlog. It projects $2.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with about 1/3 coming from its Transit business, and 2/3 From Powered &amp; Energy. At ACTC's current stock price of $17.85, Proterra has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nRivian\nRivian (see earlier description in consumer retail) will also compete in the commercial delivery market. It has been working with Amazon (a major investor) to build large electric delivery vans for Prime. Developed specifically for Amazon, a small fleet of Prime vans is on the road now, testing deliveries to customers and gathering feedback. In late fall, it could grow to a large fleet as Rivian ramps up the volume.\nThe EV range of 150 miles is tailored to Amazon's use cycle to optimize the size, weight, and cost of the commercial vehicle. Rivian has three sizes of batteries, but Amazon is starting with just one of them.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nSee the previous summary under consumer retail EV.\nMedium and Long-Haul Trucking EV Companies\nCompanies developing medium- and long-haul EV trucks face a more difficult challenge with battery range. These trucks haul much more weight than commercial delivery vehicles and because they are designed for long distances, they can't stop every 200-300 miles for recharging.\nFor this reason, many of these companies are using unique hybrid technologies for their trucks. The EV trucks in this category are primarily heavy-duty but also include some medium-duty trucks and specialty vehicles. A couple of the companies focus on retrofitting trucks to be electric.\nMedium-Duty Trucks\nThe medium-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 4, 5, and 6:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 6: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 19,501-26,000 pounds or 8,846-11,793 kilograms.1</li>\n</ul>\nHeavy-Duty Trucks\nThe heavy-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 7 and 8:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 7: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 26,001 to 33,000 pounds or 11,794-14,969 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 8: This class of trucks has a GVWR of greater than 33,001 pounds or 14,969 kilograms and includes all tractor-trailers.</li>\n</ul>\nThe Tesla Semi is a battery vehicle planned for a range of 300 or 500 miles and a speed of 60 MPH with 80,000 lbs of cargo. Tesla plans to start shipping the Semi later this year when it expects to have sufficient cell volume to meet its needs with the production of its 4680 battery pack.\nNikola(NASDAQ:NKLA)\nNikola has been a very controversial company. Founded in 2015, it originally had two different strategies. Its primary strategy is to lease fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) Class-8 heavy trucks and provide the refueling infrastructure to corporate customers. Its second strategy was to develop the Badger EV truck using GM technology.\nNikola originally merged with a SPAC to go public, at an enterprise value of approximately $3.3 billion. On June 6th, 2020, its market cap jumped to more than $30 billion, then later it dropped because of problems with its originally planned deal with GM.\nNikola originally expected a deal with General Motors that included the production of the Nikola Badger EV pickup truck. The proposed arrangement was that GM would take a $2 billion equity stake in Nikola and in return would engineer and produce the Badger. In November 2020, GM and Nikola scrapped the original arrangement. Now it appears that GM will supply Nikola with only its Hydrotec hydrogen fuel-cell technology to integrate into the EV manufacturer's commercial class 7 and class 8 zero-emission semi-trucks. So, the Badger is probably dead.\nNikola now sees semi-trucks as the company's \"core business\" and fuel cells as an increasingly important segment of the semi-truck market thanks to their efficiency in weight and consumption. It expects to begin testing by the end of 2021.\nIt has received pre-orders from Anheuser-Busch and a few other companies, but it doesn't expect deliveries until 2023. Hydrogen fueling stations are key to its strategy, both providing a source of revenue and necessary fueling infrastructure for the trucks to operate, but they also cost a lot. In its March 2020 investor deck, Nikola said a single station capable of fueling 210 trucks a day would cost $16.6 million. Its initial planned network of 700 stations would cost roughly $11.6 billion.\nNikola was also accused of misrepresentation, and its executive chairman and founder stepped down.\nAt the time of the SPAC merger, it projected an optimistic forecast of more than $3 billion in revenue by 2024, with a net income of $145 million. Most of that revenue was expected to come from its Badger truck, which is no longer in the plans. Yet its market cap is still almost $6 billion.\nHyliion (HYLN)\nHyliion, founded in 2015 in Austin, went public in October 2020 through the SPAC Tortoise Acquisition Corp. (SHLL). In March 2019, automotive parts manufacturer Dana Inc. made an equity investment into Hyliion, and together they are manufacturing and marketing Class 8 EVs to Dana's customers, including Volvo, Navistar, and Peterbilt.\nHyliion's strategy is unique, and a very different strategy from Nikola. Essentially it generates electricity onboard the truck using compressed natural gas (CNG). This should be a benefit for longer-range trucking. Hyliion's Hypertruck concept involves an all-electric drivetrain utilizing Dana's electric motor, inverter, and axle technologies. The truck's batteries are fueled by onboard tanks of CNG. With some 700 CNG stations already operating nationwide, it believes that there no need to build out expensive superchargers or hydrogen infrastructure.\nKuwait-based logistics company, Agility, has already placed an order for 1,000 Hypertrucks with initial deliveries targeted in 2022. Combined with a fully electric drivetrain and a natural gas-powered onboard generator to recharge the battery, the Hypertruck ERX will provide more than 1,000 miles of range.\nHyliion will eventually compete with Nikola (FCEV) and the Tesla battery-based Semi, but it plans to have a longer range and lower operating costs. Its HyperTruck ERX is expected to be available in 2021. It also has a hybrid-electric truck.\nThe combination with SHLL had an estimated market cap of about $1.5 billion, with approximately $530 million going to the company, including a $325 million fully committed PIPE. At approximately $13.50 per share, its current market cap is approximately $2.2 billion, significantly down from its peak. Hyliion projects $2 billion in revenue in 2024, which it claims is only about 2% of the addressable market.\nXL Fleet (XL)\nXL Fleet is a 10-year old company that went public through the SPAC Pivotal. XL is different because it provides fleet electrification modifications for ICE trucks across a wide range of vehicle classes (class 2-5) and types. It has over 200 of the largest commercial and municipal fleets as customers, with more than 3,200 XL systems deployed and over 130 million miles driven by customers to date. XL's customer base includes FedEx, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Verizon, the City of Boston, Seattle Fire Department, Yale University, and Harvard University.\nXL's business model is essentially retrofitting existing trucks to be hybrids and then later expanding into fully electric truck conversions. It claims to be creating a fully integrated platform for this. It remains to be seen if the retrofitting business will continue to grow or will it diminish when more trucks are designed and manufactured with EV capabilities.\nUnlike some other EV companies that have no revenue yet because they are still developing products, XL is more of a small company doing low-volume retrofits. It had $7.2 million in revenue in 2019, $21 million in 2020, and estimates $76 million in 2021, but it forecasts $1.3 billion in revenue in 2024 in its investor presentation. It plans to do this by expanding its product line from hybrid to plug-in hybrid to fully electric across a broader range of trucks. It claims to have a $220 million sales pipeline for the next 12 months.\nShort-seller, Muddy Waters, claimed after talking to former XL Fleet employees, that it believed the company significantly exaggerated its order backlog, that the return on investment for the company's products was likely negative, and that it would not be able to compete with big car makers on electrification. The company thoroughly refuted these claims.\nThe original enterprise valuation was approximately $1.4 billion at a $10 share price for the merger. Its price jumped by about 35% but has since gone back down to $12.40 for a market cap of about $1.8 billion. Although XL Fleet has revenue and other EV companies don't, this may not be an advantage. It appears to be a small company for many years that has gone public at a high valuation with grand plans. The risks are in its ability to make a jump from $76 million in 2021 to $1.3 billion in 2024, as well as the question about retrofitting being replaced by new EV trucks by then.\nXos (NGAC)\nXos Trucks specializes in the field of manufacturing fully electric commercial vehicles. It features a software platform that is designed to accommodate an extensive variety of medium-duty bodies, wheelbase, and range requirements up to 200 miles. It was founded in 2016 and headquartered in North Hollywood, California. It received $20 million of investment in 2020 and now is going public through a merger with the SPAC ExtGen Acquisition Corporation (NGAC) at an estimated proforma value of $1.965 billion.\nIts focus is on medium- and heavy-duty last mile and return-to-base segments (class 5/6, class 6/7, and class 7/8) commercial fleets and specialty vehicles. Some vehicles are currently in production and in regular on-road operations with key fleet customers, and it claimed 6,000 unit orders in backlog.\nIts MD-platform is for classes 5-6 for pickup and delivery. Its HD X-Platform is an adaptable chassis for highway, vocational, and severe work conditions. Its market is for customers with highly predictable routes that allow for batteries designed for a more limited range. A significantly larger frame and smaller battery pack allow for reduced density.\nXos has a bundled all-in-one offering that allows fleets to access all the tools and services they need to go electric with a single point of contact at a fixed monthly expense.\nXos had $3 million in revenue in 2020 and estimates $14 million in 2021. However, it forecasts $5.2 billion in revenue in 2025. At the current stock price of $10.30, its market cap is approximately $2 billion, about the same as its original SPAC transaction.\nLion Electric (NGA)\nLion Electric is a Canadian company founded by Marc Bédard in 2008. Its focus is to be a leader in designing, developing, and manufacturing purpose-built urban electric vehicles; vehicles that are specifically designed as delivery trucks, refuse trucks, bucket trucks, moving trucks, school buses, and shuttle buses. It has over 300 all-electric vehicles on the road today.\nIn November 2020, it announced that it was going public through the SPAC NGA. The transaction had an estimated pro forma enterprise value of $1.5 billion.\nIt plans on seven new truck models and one new school bus, for a total of 15 all-electric vehicles, representing a full line-up from class 5 to class 8 electric trucks and a full line-up of electric school buses. Its vehicles are produced at its existing manufacturing plant, which has the capacity for the production of up to 2,500 vehicles per year. It intends to open a new plant in the U.S. capable of delivering over 20,000 Lion trucks and buses per year by 2022.\nIts all-electric class 6 and class 8 commercial urban trucks combine power, comfort, and modern technology. Custom-built chassis and cabin designed specifically for an all-electric heavy-duty vehicle. The LionC is an all-electric Type C school bus manufactured in North America. The body and chassis were specifically designed to deliver optimal performance. The LionM is an all-electric midi/minibus that meets paratransit and public transportation requirements. Created and designed specifically for the paratransit market, the is spacious and offers unique features that provide enhanced security and accessibility to the end-users.\nLion Electric had $29 million in revenue in 2020 and expects $204 million in 2021. It forecasts revenue to jump to $3.6 billion a few years later in 2024. Its current market cap is approximately $3.6 billion based on its current stock price of $18.33.\nLightning eMotors (GIK)\nLightning eMotors, formerly Lightning Systems, was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Loveland, Colorado. It provides fleet electrification for familiar commercial vehicle platforms by retrofitting them with its electric powertrains. Lightning eMotors produces electric fleet medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including delivery trucks, shuttle buses, passenger vans, ambulances, bucket trucks, chassis-cab models, and city transit buses. It focuses on urban commercial zero-emission vehicles with a full range of class 3 through class 7 battery-electric and fuel-cell electric vehicles.\nLighting eMotors helps commercial fleets achieve their sustainability goals by offering zero-emission battery-electric vans, trucks, and buses based on familiar, proven vehicles from manufacturers such as Ford and GM. It works with customers, to help them identify their unique commercial electric vehicle, charging, and grant support needs.\nThe Lightning products include integrated all-electric powertrains for the Ford Transit 350HD passenger and cargo vans, Ford E-450 shuttle bus and cutaway models, Ford F-59 step/food van, Ford F-550 cargo trucks and buses, Chevrolet 6500XD Low Cab Forward model, and 30-foot, 35-foot, and 40-foot transit buses.\nLightning has 120 vehicles on the road, and 1,500 vehicles already on order from customers. In addition to making vehicles and powertrains, Lightning also provides a full suite of charging solutions for customers.\nThe deal with GIK has an enterprise value of $650 million, although there is also an Earnout of 20.0% of total pro forma shares outstanding to Lightning eMotors shareholders if the stock crosses certain price thresholds.\nAt the current price, of $11.73, GIK has a market cap of approximately $1 billion, a little more than the original transaction valuation. Similar to XL Fleet, Lightning has the risk that retrofitting may only be an interim business opportunity until more EV trucks are produced.\nPublic Chinese EV Companies\nChina will be the biggest EV market opportunity, and EV start-ups may do better there because there isn't as much entrenched competition from domestic auto companies. China is already the largest EV market in the world, with almost a million EVs sold in 2019. Its EV market represents almost half of the global EV sales volume and is much larger than the U.S. market.\nThe Chinese government has ambitions to become a global leader in new energy vehicles. Soon after the coronavirus outbreak subsided within the country, Chinese authorities announced new policies to support the auto and electric vehicle industries.\nThese Chinese companies are traded through American depository shares (ADS) that contain certain risks. There are financial reporting and transparency risks with these companies, and on top of that, the newer companies are being classified as \"emerging growth\" companies that are already exempt from certain transparency requirements set out in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Like the previous EV stock, these stocks have also been very volatile.\nIn addition to legacy auto manufacturers like BYD, there are also three Chinese EV companies that are publicly traded through American depositary shares.\nBYD Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:BYDDY)\nBYD, which means build your dreams, is the automotive subsidiary of the Chinese multinational BYD Co Ltd. It was founded in January 2003, following BYD Company's acquisition of Tsinchuan Automobile Company. The company produces automobiles, buses, electric bicycles, forklifts, rechargeable batteries, and trucks. The current model range of automobiles includes electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and petrol-engined vehicles. Thirteen years ago, on the advice of his famously skeptical lieutenant, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett made a $232 million investment in BYD, a relatively unknown Chinese car company.\nBy parlaying BYD's rechargeable battery technology into a fast-growing carmaking operation, it gained a foothold in the fledgling electric vehicle market, building longer-lasting batteries and cheaper vehicles than American and Japanese manufacturers were managing to do at the time. In BYD, Buffett and Munger believed they had found a company with a shot at one day becoming the largest player in a global automobile market that was inevitably going electric.\nBYD's start to 2021 was strong with 19,871 plug-in electric cars sold in January in China, including hybrid plug-ins. That was a big increase over 2020 but not as much as 2019.\nLI Auto (LI)\nLixiang, formerly known as Chehejia (\"Car and Home\"), was founded in 2015 and went public in the U.S. on July 30th, 2020. It is a Beijing-based electric-vehicle startup with vertically integrated manufacturing. It designs, researches, manufactures, sells, and offers services featuring a few models of electric vehicles.\nThe company's SUVs are hybrids of a sort. They use electric motors (one on the front axle and one on the rear), but those motors are powered by a combination of a 40.5kWh battery packanda 1.2-liter turbocharged engine paired to a 45-liter fuel tank and a 100kW electric generator, which generates power for the battery pack in real-time. The idea is that the car can be driven for about 100 miles on battery power alone, but it has a total range of nearly 500 miles when leveraging the combustion engine generator.\nThe Company's primary product is an SUV under its brand Li ONE. It also sells peripheral products and provides related services, such as charging stalls, vehicle internet connection services, and extended lifetime warranties. Li Auto is looking to sell a variety of SUVs built on its hybrid technology that range from around $21,000 to about $70,000. The company started shipping its first model in late 2019. It's a midsize SUV is well-appointed and has lots of touchscreens and technology. A full-size premium version is planned for release in 2022.\nDeliveries of Li ONEs were 14,464 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a 67.0% quarter-over-quarter increase and setting a new quarterly record. Deliveries for the full year 2020 reached 32,624 vehicles. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $635 million.\nLI auto went public on July 30th, 2020, raising $1.1 billion at an initial price of $15.50 per share but quickly reached almost $24. It is currently valued at approximately $37 billion at a price of approximately $25.72 per share.\nXPeng (XPEV)\nXiaopeng (XPeng) Motors is a Chinese electric vehicle and technology company that designs and manufactures smart cars. It was founded in 2015 and went public on August 27, 2020, using American depository shares, raising about $1 billion. To date, it has raised about $2.6 billion.\nXPeng aims its EVs at technology-savvy middle-class Chinese consumers, with prices ranging from $22,000 to $45,000 after government subsidies. In some ways, it is a Tesla knock-off at a much lower price. XPeng started production of the G3 in November 2018, and as of July 31, 2020, delivered 18,741. It started production of the P7 and began delivery in May 2020, and as of July 31, 2020, it had delivered 1,966 EVs. The P7 has a range of more than 400 miles. It plans to launch a third Smart EV, a sedan, in 2021. The G3 was among the top-three best-selling electric SUVs in China in 2019.\nXPeng is interesting because it has a platform strategy and is moving aggressively into autonomous driving. It uses a platform strategy to expand product offerings by launching one Smart EV model each year to broaden the addressable market. It builds new models on two highly flexible Smart EV platforms, called David and Edward, respectively. The David platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,600 millimeters to 2,800 millimeters, and the Edward platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,800 millimeters to 3,100 millimeters. It also adopted a platform approach for software systems.\nXPeng claims to be developing an autonomous driving capability for its EVs. The P7 is the first production vehicle to feature the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Xavier system-on-a-chip (SoC) autonomous driving platform. The company's Smart Electric Platform Architecture (SEPA) runs on 2 chips - NVIDIA for the XPILOT and Qualcomm's Snapdragon™ 820A for intelligent services and infotainment, including cameras inside and outside, radars, HD-map, and ultrasonic sensors. Like Tesla, it claims it can create sufficiently-autonomous driving without lidar.\nTo enhance brand recognition and allow more people to experience its Smart EVs, it deployed a small number of Smart EVs in a ride-hailing service in Guangzhou on a trial basis, but it has no current plan to scale up a ride-hailing service.\nXpeng sees first-quarter 2021 deliveries rising 450% year-over-year to 12,500 vehicles. Revenues are expected to increase 533% from a year ago. The company didn't provide bottom-line estimates for the quarter, but will likely post another net loss as it ramps up manufacturing, invests in R&amp;D, and builds out a new manufacturing plant set to open in 2022.\nXpeng reported selling 12,964 vehicles in Q4 2020, up 303% from a year ago. It delivered a total of 27,041 vehicles in 2020, up 112%. It makes the P7 sedan, a rival to the made-in-China Tesla Model 3, and the small G3 SUV.\nThe stock opened on August 27, 2020 at a price of $15 and a valuation of $11 billion, but its stock jumped more than 40% shortly after. Its current valuation is about $35 billion at a stock price of approximately $36.13 per share. It had about $300 million in revenue in 2019 with a loss of about $500 million.\nNio (NIO)\nUnlike previous companies, Nio has been a public company for some time. It originally went public in the U.S. back in September of 2018, selling IPO shares at $6.26 and raising $1 billion.\nNio's IPO was far from smooth. After going public at $6.26 per share, it traded down to nearly $1. Then in the middle of the coronavirus outbreak, Nio received a much-needed investment of $1 billion from investors, including state-backed entities.\nNio designs, jointly manufactures, and sells smart and connected premium electric vehicles, attempting to develop next-generation technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving, and artificial intelligence. Joint manufacturing means that it uses a state-owned contract manufacturer to build its cars.\nNio plans to provide customers with comprehensive, convenient, and innovative charging solutions and other user-centric services. It began deliveries of the ES8, a 7-seater high-performance premium electric SUV in China in June 2018, and its variant, the six-seater ES8, in March 2019. Nio officially launched the ES6, a 5-seater high-performance premium electric SUV, in December 2018 and began deliveries in June 2019. It officially launched the EC6, a 5-seater smart premium electric Coupe SUV, in December 2019 with deliveries in 2020.\nNio sold 17,353 EVs in Q4/2020 and 43,728 for the year. It warned a shortage in chips and batteries will force a production slowdown to 7,500 a month in Q2 from 10,000 vehicles a month in February.\nNio currently trades at more than $43 per share, including a big jump recently, for a valuation of approximately $48 billion. It had revenue of $2.3 billion in 2019 for a loss of $3.8 billion.\nSummary\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this should provide exciting new investment opportunities. However, the investment terrain is complex. There are dozens of new start-ups where the public can now invest that were previously exclusively venture capital investment opportunities. Many of these are following different roads to success. There are legacy auto manufacturers that could prosper or get destroyed in this transition. There are some exciting new EV company opportunities in China. And then there is Tesla.\nThis EV roadmap is intended to help investors explore different roads to investment by explaining the basic strategies for these EV companies. These roads can have different opportunities and risks, and the roadmap helps to frame these. Above all, valuation is an overriding risk that is highlighted throughout this article.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>New Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNew Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-19 14:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.\nLast October, I wrote a popular article providing...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车","01211":"比亚迪股份","NKLA":"Nikola Corporation","LI":"理想汽车","GP":"GreenPower Motor Company Inc.","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","GOEV":"Canoo Inc.","WKHS":"Workhorse Group, Inc.","F":"福特汽车","002594":"比亚迪","TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来","FSR":"菲斯克","HYLN":"Hyliion Holdings Corp."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1196402560","content_text":"Summary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.\nLast October, I wrote a popular article providing a roadmap for investing in electric vehicles, but since then, so much has changed: new entrants, new strategies, fluctuating valuations, etc.\nSo, I updated and greatly expanded the previous EV investment roadmap.\nThis update includes a deeper look at valuations for 23 EV companies with revenue projections, when available.\nIt also classifies these EV companies into their primary market categories and summarizes their different strategies.\n\nPhoto by Sven Loeffler/iStock via Getty Images\nMy article Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap published five months ago, was popular, and some followers have requested an update. Many new EV companies entered the market, most of them through SPACs. Valuations fluctuated wildly, and there has been a great deal of publicity around these companies.\nThis new updated EV investment roadmap is greatly expanded. In addition to updating the strategies and progress of companies previously discussed, I expanded the number of companies covered. This article also groups EV companies into their primary markets, enabling better comparisons and evaluation of market opportunities. In addition, it includes a comparative valuation chart showing every company's market cap with a comparison to projected revenue, where possible. This takes advantage (good or bad) of looking at the long-term revenue forecasts provided in SPAC mergers that public companies can't make.\nIn addition to the EV manufacturers discussed here, there are also EV investment opportunities in charging station companies, battery manufacturers, and battery materials companies. These were covered in the original roadmap and may also be updated in a later article.\nApproximately 2 million EVs were sold in 2019, and although the number declined along with all auto sales in 2020, it is forecasted to increase in 2021 and reach 8-10 million by 2025. Some forecast that EV sales will be greater than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2030, or even earlier. The automobile market appears to be moving toward a historical transformation, and exceptional investment gains can be made by anticipating new emerging industries and investing in the eventual winners of those new industries. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)are obvious examples. Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to create a new emerging industry.\nThere are also significant risks. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to be released in the next three years, which will drive rapid growth in EV sales. However, the expected sales from these new models, as well as the increasing expectations from Tesla, most likely exceed the total projected market. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the companies covered here won't exist five years from now. It reminds me of the internet bubble of the late 1990s when scores of internet-based companies went public with little or no revenue. Almost all of these failed within three years -- however, a couple, including Amazon, went on to enormous success.\nEVs provide a major new investment opportunity with high risks. To succeed, you need to have a clear EV investment roadmap.\nSo, how can you invest in this new emerging market? The EV landscape is complex and investment opportunities are varied. While Tesla is the unquestioned leader in EVs, some consider it overvalued and unlikely to show exceptional returns to new investors. The current U.S. legacy automakers are committed to introducing many new EVs in the next few years, and they have some entrenched advantages with volume manufacturing capabilities, a dealer infrastructure, and loyal customers. There are exciting new EV start-ups in the U.S. that have come public this year, mostly through Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), and there are several interesting publicly traded Chinese EV manufacturers.\nThis new roadmap for EV investment classifies companies into three primary markets segments:\n\nTheConsumer Retailsegment includes EVs sold to consumers individually, such as SUVs, pickup trucks, sedans, etc.\nTheCommercial Deliverysegment includes local delivery EV vans and trucks sold to fleets.\nTheMedium- and Long-Haul Truckingsegment includes heavier Class 4 - Class 8 trucks, as well as special industrial vehicles.\n\nIn addition, it categorizesLegacy ManufacturersandChinese EV Companies. This enables investors to evaluate investment opportunities by considering unique opportunities within each market segment.\nThere is an enormous amount of investment optimism for EVs, and retail investors have been aggressively buying into EV stocks with seemingly no regard for valuation. Then there is the additional challenge of valuing companies with no revenue, especially those coming public through SPACs. So, valuation is an important investment consideration.\nSo let's start by looking at an overview of comparative EV valuations.\nEV Investment Valuation Overview\nThe following chart summarizes valuations for 23 EV companies, including several legacy companies. For SPACs, market cap estimates are computed using the pro forma number of shares at closing, otherwise using the valuation of the SPAC prior to closing drastically underestimates the valuation, which may be misleading to novice investors. Price/Sales ratios (market cap divided by revenue) are used to compare valuations. As a benchmark, current P/S ratios vary. For example, auto and truck companies have a ratio of 2.7X. Software companies have the highest ratios of over 10X.\nIn the chart, companies that currently have revenue show current P/S ratios. Where projections are available, projected P/S ratios are computed. A note of caution, however. Many of the EV companies came public through SPACs and published their projections (which public companies cannot do), and many of these are likely to prove unrealistic.\nAll of the longer-term revenue projections come from the company (C) forecasts with a SPAC. Some of these may turn out to be accurate, not many are most likely unrealistic. Some, like Lucid, Faraday, and Arrival forecast hitting more than $10 billion in revenue in a few years, when it took Tesla more than 10. Things are different now and they might achieve these, but they could also find that it will take longer to complete development, ramp up production, and create enough customer demand. Many companies may also find that there will be significant capital requirements to achieve this type of growth, and shareholders will be diluted.\n\nTesla, the \"gold standard\" in EVs, has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, which many people believe is overvalued. Its market cap is approximately 20X 2020 revenue and 10X estimated 2022 revenue.\nTesla (TSLA)\nIn the U.S., and to a lesser extent in China, Tesla is the dominant EV provider. It has approximately 60% of the U.S. EV market and about 20% of the market in China. I own a Tesla and love it, but an investment in Tesla stock requires getting comfortable with its valuation. Tesla has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, although declining lately, which some consider still overvalued while others see upside potential.\nThe investment opportunity with Tesla is based on the expectation that it will continue to dominate the EV market, or at least maintain significant market share, despite much greater competition from the expected introduction of hundreds of new EV models in the next few years.\nThere is a great deal already published about Tesla, so I'll move on.\nLegacy Automakers\nSome people think that the legacy automakers will simply fade away. Historically, that was the case in some other industries, but it is not going to happen to most automakers. They are not standing still waiting to become obsolete. Most have aggressive strategies to replace ICE vehicles with EVs. GM plans to invest $27 billion and build and launch as many as 30 new EV models by 2025. Ford plans to invest $29 billion in EVs by 2025 and launch as many as 16 EVs in the next two years. Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY)has also committed billions to develop new EVs.\nThe competitive advantage that legacy automakers have in selling their new EVs is their dealer network. Will new EV customers prefer to continue going to their regular auto dealer to buy their new EV?\nAlmost all legacy automakers worldwide are developing and launching EVs including Volkswagen, Peugeot, Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi, Hyundai/Kia. Let's look a little more closely at GM and Ford as the leaders in the U.S.\nGeneral Motors (GM)\nGM has committed to introducing 20 new electric vehicles by 2023, including EVs across Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC, and Buick. It recently announced that it has already sold out the first-year production of its Hummer electric pickup. By mid-decade, it expects to sell a million EVs per year in its two largest markets: North America and China. As a reference point, Tesla reported deliveries of 367,500 vehicles globally in 2019.\nGM has a solid platform strategy for its EVs. It plans on building its EVs using five interchangeable drive units and three different motors from its Ultium Drive System platform. Ultium energy options range from 50 to 200 kWh, which could enable an estimated range of up to 400 miles. Most of its EVs will have 400-volt battery packs and up to 200 kW fast-charging capability while the truck platform will have 800-volt battery packs and 350 kW fast-charging capabilities.\nThe key building blocks of the Ultium battery system are large-scale, high-energy cells. Engineered in partnership with LG Energy Solutions, they use both advanced chemistry and a smart cell design that's optimized for a broad portfolio of EVs. GM engineers and scientists are actively researching and testing new elements in battery chemistry to lower costs and improve charge times. Ultium can contain either vertically- or horizontally-stacked cells to integrate into vehicle design: vertically for trucks, SUVs, and crossovers, or horizontally for cars and performance vehicles. As new chemistry is developed and becomes available, the battery management system could digitally update the modules.\nGM also has other EV opportunities with its BrightDrop commercial EV service and its Cruise subsidiary. BrightDrop will not just sell delivery EVs, it will provide an entire service platform for commercial delivery customers. Its set of electric delivery vehicles starts with the EV600 and includes the BrightDrop EP1, a pod-like electric pallet. SeeGeneral Motors' Aggressive EV/AV Strategies May Payoff Big.\nWith its highest stock price of $61.65, GM's current market cap is approximately $89 billion, increasing primarily because of its progress with EVs. This approximately 3X valuation in 2018, but still only 13% of Tesla.\nFord (F)\nFord is also investing heavily in EVs. It just introduced the Mustang Mach-E, a battery-powered crossover with sports car styling, and plans to introduce an all-electric version of its best-selling F-150 pickup later this year. Also, planned is an electric edition of the full-size Transit van, which has been popular in the commercial delivery market. Ford has confirmed plans to build a luxury Lincoln crossover on a battery-powered platform provided by Rivian. The automaker also plans to introduce two new midsize electric crossovers, one each for the Ford and Lincoln brands by 2023.\nMustang Mach-E. Source: Ford\nFord's market cap is approximately $51 billion, twice its previous market cap, and also increasing.\nConsumer Retail EV Companies\nThe consumer retail market has some unique characteristics for new EV companies. Sales are made individually, not in fleets. This diversifies the risk upon launch because only a sufficient number of customers need to be attracted to the new EV. A wave of popularity can provide terrific momentum.\nHowever, the lack of a dealer network can be an impediment. Selling EVs directly to consumers instead of through dealers is prohibited in most states. By law, auto manufacturers can't compete with franchised dealers. These are laws that go back many decades to protect dealers. This can be a major impediment for new companies without established independent dealer franchises. So, new AV companies. like Tesla, need to sell their vehicles online. Tesla has successfully done this, but it took a lot of work and time. Lack of a dealer network also creates impediments in service.\nIn addition, over the next 4-5 years, autonomous capabilities will be increasingly important to luxury vehicles. This may prove to be a challenge to start-up EV companies because they can't afford to develop this technology.\nLet's look closer at the alternative consumer retail EV investments.\nLucid Motors (CCIV)\nLucid was founded in 2007 under the name Atieva and originally focused on building electric vehicle batteries and powertrains for other vehicle manufacturers. The company rebranded itself as Lucid Motors in October 2016 and shifted its strategy to develop an all-electric, high-performance, luxury vehicle. Shortly after that, it encountered financial difficulties and struggled to get short-term funding. In 2018 it raised more than $1 billion in investment, primarily from Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund, and gave up a majority of the company.\nLucid Motors reached an agreement to become a publicly-traded company through a merger with the SPAC Churchill Capital IV Corp., in one of the largest deals SPAC EV deals. The combined company, in which Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund will continue to be the largest shareholder, had a transaction equity value of $11.75 billion (for $10/share). At the same time, it closed a PIPE investment priced at $15 a share, giving it an implied pro forma equity value of $24 billion. Rumors about this deal circulated before the transaction was formally announced, making it one of the most anticipated SPAC deals. The hype and speculation drove up the stock price of Churchill Capital IV Corp. from its opening price of $10 a share to almost $60. I believe that some of this may have been driven by novice SPAC investors who didn't realize that the valuation of CCIV didn't include the eventual valuation of Lucid. The share price dropped more than 30% after the details of the deal were announced. It's also likely that Lucid renegotiated the terms of the merger based on the price jump.\nThe company's first product is the Lucid Air, a well-equipped luxury electric vehicle that features 406 miles of projected range and 480 horsepower with a starting price of $77,400, or $69,900 after the U.S. Federal Tax Credit of $7,500. This new Lucid Air model is positioned as a high-performance, ultra-efficient luxury EV sedan in a line of future vehicles that are expected to include Lucid Air Touring, Grand Touring, and Dream Edition versions.\nThe company plans to begin production and deliveries of the Lucid Air in North America in the second half of 2021. Previously the company aimed to begin deliveries earlier in 2021. It intends to sell the car in Europe in 2022, followed by China in 2023. Lucid vehicles will be produced at its new factory in Casa Grande, Arizona. The company plans to expand the factory in phases in the coming years to have the capacity to produce 365,000 units per year at scale. The initial phase of the $700 million factory construction was completed late last year and will have the capacity to produce 30,000 vehicles a year.\nLucid also apparently has a commitment to build an assembly plant in Saudi Arabia, which was rumored to be a condition of the $1 billion investment from the Saudi public fund. The Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund also provided $600 million in bridge financing and invested in the SPAC deal as well. So, while this assembly plant may be expensive and may not be critical, it will most likely need to happen.\nLucid has ambitious plans to achieve $14 billion in revenue in 2025, and its current stock price at $29.17, which gives it a market cap of more than $46 billion, may already reflect those ambitions. Its market cap is roughly the same as Ford.\nFisker (FSR)\nFisker, which had its origins with Fisker Automotive, is an interesting story that ended in bankruptcy. Henrik Fisker originally co-founded Fisker Automotive in 2007. He was responsible for designing many premium cars such as the Aston Martin. Subsequently, Fisker Automotive had to deal with a Tesla lawsuit against Fisker Automotive alleging it stole Tesla's technology, a controversial $528.7 million conditional loan from the Department of Energy, a recall of its battery produced by A123, and the loss of several hundred vehicles in hurricane Sandy. Henrik Fisker resigned in March 2013 because of disagreements over business strategy and in November 2013, Fisker filed its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case.\nHowever, Henrik Fisker retained the Fisker brand and trademarks, and in 2016 he started another electric vehicle company named Fisker Inc. with the Fisker brand and trademarks. In 2019, Fisker shifted from developing a sports car with a solid-state battery to the Ocean SUV featuring a lithium-ion battery, which it later abandoned for a solid-state battery.\nFisker is positioning itself in a unique segment for those who want the most environmentally friendly EV. While this may be an early growth segment for EVs, it's difficult to estimate its eventual competitive advantage and the size of this environmentally-friendly market segment.\nThe Ocean is a crossover made of recycled metal and plastic with an expected base price of $37,499, and an expected lease of less than $400 a month. Fisker's plan is essentially a lease-only business model that lets customers keep a vehicle for years or return it at any time. It aims to source motors, batteries, and other components from technical partnerships with automakers and will outsource production from existing auto plants. Fisker is currently taking reservations at $250 for the Ocean. It also announced an agreement with Foxconn to jointly develop a vehicle pioneering a new market segment to be sold globally under the Fisker brand commencing in Q4 2023. at the end of 2022. Production will start at Magna Steyr's manufacturing facilities in Europe. At the end of February 2021, it had 12,467 cancellable reservations.\nFisker Ocean. Source: Fisker\nFisker went public using a SPAC (Spartan Energy). The original combination with SPAQ in October 2020 was valued at $2.9 billion with a cash investment of approximately $1 billion. The stock currently trades at approximately $21 per share, after reaching a high of $28.50, from the original price of $10, which is a market cap of $4.6 billion. Fisker projects $3.3 billion in revenue in 2023. It had almost $1 billion in cash at the end of 2020 and expected to use almost half of this in 2021: $250 million on operating expenses and $250 million in capital investments. If the Ocean is delayed into 2023, Fisker risks missing its revenue objective and will potentially need additional cash to complete development and launch.\nFaraday Future (PSAC)\nFaraday Future was originally established in May 2014 by Chinese businessman Jia Yueting. It is headquartered in Los Angeles and has offices in Silicon Valley, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu. Faraday Future also had a turbulent history. In 2016, it struggled financially, and in 2017 some key executives departed over a dispute about financial issues. They later founded Canoo.\nIn December 2018 the company announced layoffs due to a cash crunch and financial troubles. The company's founder Jia Yueting filed for personal bankruptcy in the United States' federal court in Delaware on October 14, 2019. Following Jia's personal bankruptcy, he decided to step down from his role as CEO of Faraday Future in order to assume a new position as the Chief Product and User Officer. He was replaced as CEO by Carsten Breitfeld, the former CEO at rival electric vehicle startup Byton.\nSomehow, Faraday was able to raise $2.3 billion in private funding over 5 rounds from a variety of investors. In early 2018, it received $1.5 billion in funding from an undisclosed investor from Hong Kong.\nFaraday's flagship product offering will be the FF 91, featuring 1,050 HP, 0-60 mph in less than 2.4 seconds, zero gravity seats with the largest 60-degree reclining angles, and a user experience designed to create a mobile, connected, and luxurious living space. The FF 91 is targeted to launch in 2022.\nFF 91. Source: Faraday Future\nIts strategic partners include one of China's top three OEMs and a critical Chinese city, which the company believes will help establish its presence in the Chinese vehicle market.\nFaraday Future plans several cars based on its Variable Platform Architecture. FF 91 is the first production vehicle and flagship model. Pricing will range between $120,000 and upwards of $200,000, which places it against formidable opponents. Faraday Future is already looking forward to expanding its range with a pair of smaller models named FF 81 and FF 71. The FF 81 is planned to be priced at $75,000 to 95,000 with a 2023 release. The FF 71 is planned to be priced at $45,000 to $65,000 with a planned release of 2024.\nThe Primary Manufacturing Facility for FF 91 is in Hanford, CA with contract manufacturing for future models in Gunsan, South Korea.\nFaraday Future is planning high-Level automation with a Level-3 capable system using a redundant safety architecture based on NVIDIA Xavier System-on-a-chip. It will be capable of highway auto-drive and hardware ready for advanced auto-drive. It is targeting full autonomous valet parking & summon in any parking lot or structure. Eventually, it expects full auto-drive, including full 360˚ sensor coverage for advanced auto-drive & auto-park features.\nIn January 2021, Faraday Future announced that the company would go public through a reverse merger with the special purpose acquisition company Property Solutions Acquisition Corp. (PSAC). The combined company will be valued at $3.4 billion. Faraday Future is expected to set up contract manufacturing operations in China through their partnership with Geely. Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn is also expected to serve as an additional strategic partner.\nFaraday Future projects $10.5 billion in revenue in 2024 and $21.5 billion in 2025. Revenue is expected to start in 2022 with the delivery of 2,400 vehicles for $504 million. Most likely these projections could prove to be optimistic. At a current stock price of approximately $12.80, it has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nLordstown Motors (RIDE)\nLordstown Motors based in Lordstown, Ohio, was originally founded in 2018 by Steve Burns, the former CEO of Workhorse Group. The company licensed technology from Workhorse in return for royalties and a 10% ownership. Lordstown is named after the famous GM Lordstown manufacturing plant, which it acquired in November 2019 in an unusual transaction. GM announced that it was closing the plant and was under a great deal of pressure for that decision. So, GM \"sold\" the plant to a company that was renamed Lordstown for an estimated $20 million that it loaned to the acquiring company. Subsequently, the sale was redefined to be part of a $75 million investment by GM, of which $50 million was an in-kind exchange for the plant.\nLordstown went public through the SPAC DiamondPeak Holdings Corp. in 2020. It currently has more than 400 employees.\nIts first product is the Lordstown Endurance, a full-sized EV pickup truck. Lordstown is positioning Endurance for the pickup fleet market segment. The expected price is $52,000+, and it claimed to have more than 100,000 pre-orders by January 2021. However, a recent research article published by a short seller claimed \"Our research has revealed that Lordstown's order book consists of fake or entirely non-binding orders, from customers that generally do not even have fleets of vehicles.\" Lordstown is disputing that article.\nIt believes the fleet pickup market segment is underserved with no current EV-focused competition. It estimates that the full-sized pick-up truck fleet market is 1.2 million vehicles per year in the U.S., but it's more fragmented than other truck fleets. Pickup \"fleets\" tend to be much smaller and local, so there may not be much of a market distinction for a small company buying several EV pickups from a traditional auto dealer. About half of the total U.S. pickup market is classified as fleet sales, meaning more than one.\nEven though Lordstown is targeting the commercial fleet market, it is a similar product to the Ford EV F-150. So I classify it in the consumer EV category. It is a class 2 vehicle. Lordstown also may enter the SUV market in the longer-term.\nThe Endurance will compete against future models from Rivian and Tesla, as well as Ford and GM in ICE pick-ups and their upcoming EV pick-ups. Ford plans on selling its EV F-150 in mid-2022. Initial production of the Endurance is expected in the second half of 2021, so it may have a short market advantage. Nevertheless, it forecasts selling 65,000 vehicles in 2023 and 107,000 in 2024. These estimates could be a large percentage of the EV pick-up market in those years.\nAt the SPAC merger, the implied valuation for Lordstown was $1.6 billion, including a $500 million PIPE and the $75 million by GM. Lordstown's financial projections appear to be aggressive. It projects to start shipping the Endurance in late 2021 with projected revenue in 2022 of $1.7 billion, increasing to $5.8 billion in 2024. Its stock price at approximately $13.60 values the company at a market cap of approximately $2.2 billion. The value of the company depends on the likelihood of achieving its projections.\nA fleet sales strategy makes sense for Lordstown since it would be too expensive to build a retail sales and service capability. However, it's not clear that this will become a distinct competitive advantage. Some small fleets may still prefer to buy their EV pickups from established local dealers with service capabilities.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nCanoo started as Evelozcity in 2017 and rebranded as Canoo in the spring of 2019. Canoo is a Los Angeles-based company that develops electric vehicles. It has over 350 employees. Canoo has designed a modular electric platform purpose-built to deliver maximum vehicle interior space, which is adaptable to support a wide range of vehicle applications for consumers and businesses. Canoo expects to launch its first consumer model in 2022, simply named the Canoo that will be available by subscription, followed shortly after by a multi-purpose delivery vehicle and a sports vehicle, each built off of the same underlying platform. Canoo went public using a SPAC (Hennessy Capital Acquisition) and now trades as GOEV.\nCanoo's all-electric skateboard-like platform is designed to support both consumer retail and commercial vehicle configurations. The EV leverages Canoo's flat skateboard architecture for a high level of usable interior space. Its commercial vehicle program, expected in 2023, addresses a projected $50B+ last-mile delivery market with an EV platform that maximizes cargo volume.\nHyundai Motor Group said it would jointly develop an electric vehicle platform with the company.\nCanoo's platform strategy is interesting. It could be used as an EV platform for custom fleets of delivery vehicles. It has no AV development, but it claims to be \"AV Ready\" which could be useful for AV companies wanting to build custom AV delivery fleets.\nIts all-electric multi-purpose delivery vehicle is expected to be priced starting at approximately $33,000. It is based on Canoo's proprietary electric platform and will be offered in two initial size variants, with others to follow. Limited availability will begin in 2022, with scaled production and launch planned for 2023. Customers can pre-order the multi-purpose delivery vehicle for a refundable deposit of $100 per vehicle\nIt plans to offer two multi-purpose delivery vehicles: the MPDV1 and the larger MPDV2. The first has a 200-foot cargo volume and a range of 130-200 miles. It offers more capacity than today's ICE delivery vehicles at an affordable price with urban mobility enabled by a space-efficient footprint. The vehicle is also designed to fit within many height-restricted areas like parking garages.\nThe MPDV2 has a cargo volume of 450 feet and a range of 90-190 miles. Its roof and step-in height enable individuals to easily walk-in the vehicle and accommodate a standing position while inside.\nThe original SPAC transaction provided approximately $600 million, with a pro forma equity value of approximately $2.4 billion. Like other SPAC mergers, its stock price has fluctuated. It currently trades at about $15.90 per share for a market cap of approximately $3.7 billion. Canoo projects $2.0 billion in revenue in 2025 from about $500 million in engineering services, $1.2 billion from its consumer vehicle subscriptions, and the remainder from its commercial program. Canoo expects revenue of more than $300 million in 2022 after the launch of its lifestyle consumer vehicle.\nSince its first products are aimed at consumers, as is most of its forecasted 2025 revenue, I categorize it primarily as a consumer EV company. However, I think the design of that Canoo vehicle may not attract enough customers. More importantly, its subscription service way of selling its EV to consumers is risky. I think it has more potential in the commercial market, however, a dual strategy (consumer and commercial) is challenging. I like its skateboard platform design and that could prove to be a competitive advantage.\nRivian\nAlthough not yet public, I include Rivian because it has plans for an IPO as soon as Sept 2021, although it could slip into 2022. There are rumors that the company is targeting a market valuation of approximately $50B. Rivian has already raised more than $8 billion to date from Amazon, Ford, T. Rowe Price, and others.\nRivian has developed and vertically integrated a connected electric platform that can be flexibly applied to a range of applications, including the company's adventure products, as well as B2B products such as the Amazon last-mile delivery vans. The company's initial products, the R1T and R1S, provide a combination of performance, off-road capability, and utility. These vehicles will be produced at Rivian's manufacturing plant in Normal, Ill., with customer deliveries expected to begin in summer 2021. The launch of the R1S three-row electric SUV will follow in August.\nAdditional lower-priced models are being planned. The expected R2 series would include at least two smaller electric vehicles to coincide with the smaller platform, then another platform for R3.\nCommercial Delivery EV Companies\nEV truck companies differ based on the type of truck they are developing. The technology and markets are very different, so I separate them into two categories. The first category includes commercial delivery vehicles.\nCompanies making EV delivery vehicles have some major advantages that could make them good investments. First, delivery vehicles typically travel less than 250 miles during a day, so they can be conveniently recharged overnight. Secondly, they are typically sold in large quantities to fleets. This means that building a retail sales infrastructure is not necessary. It only requires a small salesforce. In addition, maintenance can also be provided at the fleet's operational center, so not as many service centers are required.\nThe disadvantage in this market is that there are a relatively small number of customers that buy in large volumes, so if the EV manufacturer can't get enough large customers, they may not be able to stay in business. GM estimates the combined market opportunity for parcel and food delivery, as well as reverse logistics, in the U.S. will be more than $850 billion by 2025.\nThe commercial market is expected to be a major growth area for EVs. Other start-up automakers like Rivian as well as legacy automakers such as Ford, Daimler, and GM have announced plans to enter the segment. GM recently announced its BrightDrop ecosystem for commercial customers that includes an all-new electric delivery van, the EV600 available by the end of 2021, as well as an integrated autonomous pallet and related services.\nThis group of EV companies focuses primarily on commercial delivery. In general, these are in the light-duty trucks category, although it also includes some medium-duty trucks. This generally includes the following commercial truck classes:\n\nClass 1: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 0-6,000 pounds or 0-2,722 kilograms.\nClass 2: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 6,001-10,000 pounds or 2,722-4,536 kilograms.1\nClass 3: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 10,001-14,000 pounds or 4,536-6,350 kilograms.\n\nIt can also include somewhat larger medium-duty EV delivery trucks:\n\nClass 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.\nClass 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.\n\nEV delivery trucks also have an advantage over ICE vehicles because they can have a greater delivery storage space. Smaller buses and transit vehicles are also included in this category.\nLast-mile package delivery is not an immediate-term autonomous vehicle opportunity because it requires a delivery person to be on the truck anyway.\nWorkhorse Group (WKHS)\nWorkhorse has been a public company for ten years. Originally AMP Electric Vehicles, it was established in 2007 as a developmental-stage vehicle electrification company, focusing on conversions. AMP Electric Vehicles went public in 2010 trading on the OTC market under the AMPD symbol. When the economic benefits of conversion became less certain, it pivoted away from passenger vehicles and began to focus on electrifying commercial vehicles. AMP acquired the Workhorse brand and the Workhorse custom chassis assembly plant in Union City. In March of 2013, AMP formally changed its name to Workhorse Group Incorporated.\nThe Company designs and builds a last-mile delivery electric vehicle. The C-Series EVs cover the larger size of commercial delivery vehicles in Classes 3-5. As part of its solutions, it also develops cloud-based, real-time telematics performance monitoring systems. It sells its vehicles to fleet customers directly and through its primary distributor, Ryder Systems. It is currently focused on bringing the C-Series electric delivery truck to market and fulfilling the existing backlog of orders.\nThe C-Series looks like a viable EV replacement for the 350,000 last-mile delivery vehicles sold in the U.S. annually. It recently announced an increased driving range from 100 miles to 160, which should open more market opportunities. It has a viable short-term go-to-market strategy selling fleets to delivery companies. It currently has test vehicles with UPS, DHL, FedEx, Amazon, and Walmart.\nWorkhorse recently lost out on the United States Postal Services Next Generation Delivery Vehicle project, however, it is in the process of challenging this decision. Additionally, its investment in Lordstown also provides an indirect investment opportunity. On November 7, 2019, the Company entered a transaction with Lordstown Motors to grant LMC a perpetual and worldwide license to certain intellectual property relating to its W-15 electric pickup truck platform and related technology in exchange for royalties, equity interest (approximately 10%) in LMC, and other considerations. This was a $320 million asset for Workhorse at the end of 2020.\nWorkhorse received a significant increase in orders in Q4/2020 but built just seven trucks in the fourth quarter due to production systems and supply chain issues. Workhorse plans to continue to take it slow, striving to build three of its composite-body battery-electric trucks a day in March with a plan to reach 10 trucks a day by the end of June. This makes its original 2021 goal of producing 1,800 trucks unlikely. It partnered with Hitachi and Hitachi Capital America (\"HCA\") to improve the Company's manufacturing, operational, and supply chain capabilities as well as to develop a national dealer network to support Workhorse's sales with vehicle financing options for both dealers and customers.\nWorkhorse has a market cap of approximately $1.9 billion. While Workhorse had ongoing revenue, unlike many other new EV companies, its revenue is still insignificant. It had a revenue of $1.4 million in 2020 and $377,000 in 2019. It has a backlog of over 8,000 vehicles but doesn't expect to be able to build many of those in 2021. It raised $270 million in capital over several financings, providing the Company with additional capital to build its backlog. It had cash of $215 million as of March 1, 2021. Because Workhorse is a traditional public company, it hasn't made long-term financial projections like SPAC-based companies.\nElectric Last Mile (FIII)\nElectric Last Mile, based in Troy Michigan, was founded by Jason Luo, former CEO of Ford China before it was acquired by China's Ningbo Joyson Electronic for $920 million in 2016, including James Taylor, former CEO of GM's Hummer brand and former CEO of electric car maker Karma Automotive. Taylor serves as the company's top executive with Luo as the company's chairman.\nThe company plans to launch a small electric delivery van (class 1-2), called the UD-1, in the third quarter of 2021, and then introduce an Urban Utility vehicle (Class 2-3) in 2022. These are expected to compete with Workhorse, Rivian, Canoo, as well as the Ford eTransit and the GMC BV1, none of which is expected to be a Class 1 vehicle.\nThe company says it has 30,000 preorders for its van, representing more than $1 billion in sales. Electric Last Miles vehicles will be based on Sokon's commercial van made in China through a joint venture with Dongfeng Automobile Co Ltd. in order to accelerate development time.\nElectric Last Mile (ELM) is expected to manufacture the vans in a former General Motors Co. Hummer plant in Mishawaka, Ind., that the company is acquiring from China's Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co. Ltd. The plant has the capacity to produce 100,000 vehicles annually with plans to build approximately 4,000 UD-1 vans by the end of 2021. The UD-1 has a starting price of $32,500 and a range of 150 miles. The battery for the vehicle is expected to be supplied by the Chinese battery company CATL.\nELM believes that it has a competitive advantage because its first vehicle, the ELM Urban Delivery, is scheduled to be available in 2021. It is based on a proven, existing platform developed and sold by Sokon Group in the Asian market, where there are 30,000 of these electric delivery vehicles driving 1.5 million miles every day. At the close of the business combination, ELM will be an independent, U.S. company producing electric vehicles in the U.S. with Sokon Group providing access to its know-how, parts supply, and field and service data.\nELM expects that the Urban Delivery vehicle will be the first electric delivery vehicle coming to market in the class 1 category (GVW of 6,000 lbs or less) in the U.S. It will also have 35% more carrying volume compared to similar ICE delivery vehicles, a critical part of the value proposition. It also anticipates that its price and greater carrying volume will allow it to take market share from the class 2 category of vehicles as well.\nIts crossover product portfolio strategy targets commercial delivery vehicles spanning from class 1 to class 3, which represents over 80% of the last mile market.\nELM anticipates $122 million in revenue in 2021, rapidly increasing to $3 billion in 2025. The price of FIII stock increased immediately following its announcement with Electric Last Mile, rising more than 40% to $14.50, but now it has dropped closer to the original deal price to $10.25 for a market cap of approximately $1.5 billion.\nGreenPower Motor Company (GP)\nGreenPower Motor Company Inc. is a Canadian battery-electric bus manufacturer with multiple models of high- and low-floor vehicles, including transit buses, school buses, and shuttles. GreenPower offers commercial vehicles for delivery, public transit, schools, vanpooling, micro-transit, shuttles, and is developing a capability of autonomous operation. It went public on August 28, 2020.\nIn 2014 GreenPower launched its first purpose-built, battery-electric bus, the EV350, 40-foot transit bus. GreenPower received its first order in 2017 for ten EV350s from the City of Porterville, California.\nGreenPower's electric buses are purpose-built and designed to be all-electric, allowing it to put the battery and propulsion system in optimized locations that provide weight and structural advantages. Its primary EV is the EV Star with more than 120 vehicles delivered. It comes in several variations:\n\nEV Star - Up to 19 passengers\nEV Star Plus - Up to 24 passengers\nEV Star ADA - Passenger and curbside lift for ADA\nEV Star Cargo - 5,000 pounds of load\nEV Star Cargo Plus - 570 cubic feet of cargo space.\n\nIts EV school bus seats up to 90 students and has a range of up to 150 miles.\nGreenPower had revenue of $13.5 million in 2020 It has about $21 million in cash. It's an interesting alternative since it is already shipping EVs, has revenue, and also has a lower market cap of less than $1 billion. Since it did a traditional IPO, it hasn't published longer-term financial forecasts.\nArrival (CIIC)\nArrival was founded in 2015 in London to make a variety of commercial electric vehicles. It has approximately 1,200 employees across 11 cities in 8 countries. In November 2020, Arrival and the SPAC CIIG entered into a business combination agreement with an implied valuation of $5.39 billion.\nArrival plans on releasing four commercial EVs over the next few years.\n\nQ4/2021: An electric bus for 8-125 passengers and a range of 240-400km\nQ3/2022: An electric delivery van with a payload of 975-2,000kg and a range of 150-340km\n2022: A larger electric van with a payload of 4,000 kg and a range of 190-400km\n2023: a small vehicle platform with a range of 100-300km.\n\nThis mix provides a nice diversified portfolio of EVs. Arrival claims to have received orders from UPS for 10,000 vans. It plans a unique flexible manufacturing approach using micro-factories with each projected to manufacture 10,000 vans per year. All of its vehicles use a modular skateboard electric platform.\nArrival ambitiously projects $14.1 billion in revenue in 2024. Half of that revenue is expected from delivery vans, 22% from buses, and the rest from the large van and its small vehicle platform. With CIIC's stock price at $24.80 per share, Arrival's current market cap is relatively high at approximately $15.0 billion. Justifying its market cap depends on its ability to release, sell, and produce its four commercial EVs.\nProterra (ACTC)\nProterra is a commercial electric vehicle company with over a decade of production experience. The Company has designed an end-to-end, flexible technology platform that claims to deliver higher performance and a low total cost of ownership to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end customers.\nProterra, Inc., was originally founded in Golden, Colorado, by Dale Hill in 2004. Later the company wanted to take the lead in creating zero-emission, U.S.-based transit buses. In 2010 it moved its manufacturing plant from Golden, Colorado to Greenville, South Carolina. In 2015, Proterra was awarded a $3 million grant from the California Energy Commission to fund the design, development, and construction of the company's battery-electric transit bus manufacturing line in the City of Industry, California. It moved its headquarters from Greenville, South Carolina, to Burlingame, California, in October 2015. Proterra raised more than $600 million in funding.\nIt is going public through the SPAC ArcLight (ACTC) with a pro forma valuation of $1.6 billion. Upon completion of the transaction, Proterra expects to have up to $825 million in cash to fund growth initiatives, including R&D and the expansion of its next-generation battery program.\nProterra has three complementary businesses:\n\nProterra Powered: Delivering battery systems and electrification solutions to commercial vehicle manufacturers\nProterra Transit:Providing an electric transit bus OEMs\nProterra Energy:Offering turnkey charging and energy management solutions.\n\nThe company's battery systems have been proven in more than 16 million service miles driven by its fleet of transit vehicles and validated through partnerships with commercial vehicle OEMs. Proterra has produced and delivered more than 300 megawatt-hours of battery systems, more than 550 heavy-duty electric transit buses, and installed 54 megawatts of charging systems.\nProterra expected $193 million of revenue in 2020, with an estimated $750 million in existing orders and backlog. It projects $2.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with about 1/3 coming from its Transit business, and 2/3 From Powered & Energy. At ACTC's current stock price of $17.85, Proterra has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nRivian\nRivian (see earlier description in consumer retail) will also compete in the commercial delivery market. It has been working with Amazon (a major investor) to build large electric delivery vans for Prime. Developed specifically for Amazon, a small fleet of Prime vans is on the road now, testing deliveries to customers and gathering feedback. In late fall, it could grow to a large fleet as Rivian ramps up the volume.\nThe EV range of 150 miles is tailored to Amazon's use cycle to optimize the size, weight, and cost of the commercial vehicle. Rivian has three sizes of batteries, but Amazon is starting with just one of them.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nSee the previous summary under consumer retail EV.\nMedium and Long-Haul Trucking EV Companies\nCompanies developing medium- and long-haul EV trucks face a more difficult challenge with battery range. These trucks haul much more weight than commercial delivery vehicles and because they are designed for long distances, they can't stop every 200-300 miles for recharging.\nFor this reason, many of these companies are using unique hybrid technologies for their trucks. The EV trucks in this category are primarily heavy-duty but also include some medium-duty trucks and specialty vehicles. A couple of the companies focus on retrofitting trucks to be electric.\nMedium-Duty Trucks\nThe medium-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 4, 5, and 6:\n\nClass 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.\nClass 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.\nClass 6: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 19,501-26,000 pounds or 8,846-11,793 kilograms.1\n\nHeavy-Duty Trucks\nThe heavy-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 7 and 8:\n\nClass 7: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 26,001 to 33,000 pounds or 11,794-14,969 kilograms.\nClass 8: This class of trucks has a GVWR of greater than 33,001 pounds or 14,969 kilograms and includes all tractor-trailers.\n\nThe Tesla Semi is a battery vehicle planned for a range of 300 or 500 miles and a speed of 60 MPH with 80,000 lbs of cargo. Tesla plans to start shipping the Semi later this year when it expects to have sufficient cell volume to meet its needs with the production of its 4680 battery pack.\nNikola(NASDAQ:NKLA)\nNikola has been a very controversial company. Founded in 2015, it originally had two different strategies. Its primary strategy is to lease fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) Class-8 heavy trucks and provide the refueling infrastructure to corporate customers. Its second strategy was to develop the Badger EV truck using GM technology.\nNikola originally merged with a SPAC to go public, at an enterprise value of approximately $3.3 billion. On June 6th, 2020, its market cap jumped to more than $30 billion, then later it dropped because of problems with its originally planned deal with GM.\nNikola originally expected a deal with General Motors that included the production of the Nikola Badger EV pickup truck. The proposed arrangement was that GM would take a $2 billion equity stake in Nikola and in return would engineer and produce the Badger. In November 2020, GM and Nikola scrapped the original arrangement. Now it appears that GM will supply Nikola with only its Hydrotec hydrogen fuel-cell technology to integrate into the EV manufacturer's commercial class 7 and class 8 zero-emission semi-trucks. So, the Badger is probably dead.\nNikola now sees semi-trucks as the company's \"core business\" and fuel cells as an increasingly important segment of the semi-truck market thanks to their efficiency in weight and consumption. It expects to begin testing by the end of 2021.\nIt has received pre-orders from Anheuser-Busch and a few other companies, but it doesn't expect deliveries until 2023. Hydrogen fueling stations are key to its strategy, both providing a source of revenue and necessary fueling infrastructure for the trucks to operate, but they also cost a lot. In its March 2020 investor deck, Nikola said a single station capable of fueling 210 trucks a day would cost $16.6 million. Its initial planned network of 700 stations would cost roughly $11.6 billion.\nNikola was also accused of misrepresentation, and its executive chairman and founder stepped down.\nAt the time of the SPAC merger, it projected an optimistic forecast of more than $3 billion in revenue by 2024, with a net income of $145 million. Most of that revenue was expected to come from its Badger truck, which is no longer in the plans. Yet its market cap is still almost $6 billion.\nHyliion (HYLN)\nHyliion, founded in 2015 in Austin, went public in October 2020 through the SPAC Tortoise Acquisition Corp. (SHLL). In March 2019, automotive parts manufacturer Dana Inc. made an equity investment into Hyliion, and together they are manufacturing and marketing Class 8 EVs to Dana's customers, including Volvo, Navistar, and Peterbilt.\nHyliion's strategy is unique, and a very different strategy from Nikola. Essentially it generates electricity onboard the truck using compressed natural gas (CNG). This should be a benefit for longer-range trucking. Hyliion's Hypertruck concept involves an all-electric drivetrain utilizing Dana's electric motor, inverter, and axle technologies. The truck's batteries are fueled by onboard tanks of CNG. With some 700 CNG stations already operating nationwide, it believes that there no need to build out expensive superchargers or hydrogen infrastructure.\nKuwait-based logistics company, Agility, has already placed an order for 1,000 Hypertrucks with initial deliveries targeted in 2022. Combined with a fully electric drivetrain and a natural gas-powered onboard generator to recharge the battery, the Hypertruck ERX will provide more than 1,000 miles of range.\nHyliion will eventually compete with Nikola (FCEV) and the Tesla battery-based Semi, but it plans to have a longer range and lower operating costs. Its HyperTruck ERX is expected to be available in 2021. It also has a hybrid-electric truck.\nThe combination with SHLL had an estimated market cap of about $1.5 billion, with approximately $530 million going to the company, including a $325 million fully committed PIPE. At approximately $13.50 per share, its current market cap is approximately $2.2 billion, significantly down from its peak. Hyliion projects $2 billion in revenue in 2024, which it claims is only about 2% of the addressable market.\nXL Fleet (XL)\nXL Fleet is a 10-year old company that went public through the SPAC Pivotal. XL is different because it provides fleet electrification modifications for ICE trucks across a wide range of vehicle classes (class 2-5) and types. It has over 200 of the largest commercial and municipal fleets as customers, with more than 3,200 XL systems deployed and over 130 million miles driven by customers to date. XL's customer base includes FedEx, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Verizon, the City of Boston, Seattle Fire Department, Yale University, and Harvard University.\nXL's business model is essentially retrofitting existing trucks to be hybrids and then later expanding into fully electric truck conversions. It claims to be creating a fully integrated platform for this. It remains to be seen if the retrofitting business will continue to grow or will it diminish when more trucks are designed and manufactured with EV capabilities.\nUnlike some other EV companies that have no revenue yet because they are still developing products, XL is more of a small company doing low-volume retrofits. It had $7.2 million in revenue in 2019, $21 million in 2020, and estimates $76 million in 2021, but it forecasts $1.3 billion in revenue in 2024 in its investor presentation. It plans to do this by expanding its product line from hybrid to plug-in hybrid to fully electric across a broader range of trucks. It claims to have a $220 million sales pipeline for the next 12 months.\nShort-seller, Muddy Waters, claimed after talking to former XL Fleet employees, that it believed the company significantly exaggerated its order backlog, that the return on investment for the company's products was likely negative, and that it would not be able to compete with big car makers on electrification. The company thoroughly refuted these claims.\nThe original enterprise valuation was approximately $1.4 billion at a $10 share price for the merger. Its price jumped by about 35% but has since gone back down to $12.40 for a market cap of about $1.8 billion. Although XL Fleet has revenue and other EV companies don't, this may not be an advantage. It appears to be a small company for many years that has gone public at a high valuation with grand plans. The risks are in its ability to make a jump from $76 million in 2021 to $1.3 billion in 2024, as well as the question about retrofitting being replaced by new EV trucks by then.\nXos (NGAC)\nXos Trucks specializes in the field of manufacturing fully electric commercial vehicles. It features a software platform that is designed to accommodate an extensive variety of medium-duty bodies, wheelbase, and range requirements up to 200 miles. It was founded in 2016 and headquartered in North Hollywood, California. It received $20 million of investment in 2020 and now is going public through a merger with the SPAC ExtGen Acquisition Corporation (NGAC) at an estimated proforma value of $1.965 billion.\nIts focus is on medium- and heavy-duty last mile and return-to-base segments (class 5/6, class 6/7, and class 7/8) commercial fleets and specialty vehicles. Some vehicles are currently in production and in regular on-road operations with key fleet customers, and it claimed 6,000 unit orders in backlog.\nIts MD-platform is for classes 5-6 for pickup and delivery. Its HD X-Platform is an adaptable chassis for highway, vocational, and severe work conditions. Its market is for customers with highly predictable routes that allow for batteries designed for a more limited range. A significantly larger frame and smaller battery pack allow for reduced density.\nXos has a bundled all-in-one offering that allows fleets to access all the tools and services they need to go electric with a single point of contact at a fixed monthly expense.\nXos had $3 million in revenue in 2020 and estimates $14 million in 2021. However, it forecasts $5.2 billion in revenue in 2025. At the current stock price of $10.30, its market cap is approximately $2 billion, about the same as its original SPAC transaction.\nLion Electric (NGA)\nLion Electric is a Canadian company founded by Marc Bédard in 2008. Its focus is to be a leader in designing, developing, and manufacturing purpose-built urban electric vehicles; vehicles that are specifically designed as delivery trucks, refuse trucks, bucket trucks, moving trucks, school buses, and shuttle buses. It has over 300 all-electric vehicles on the road today.\nIn November 2020, it announced that it was going public through the SPAC NGA. The transaction had an estimated pro forma enterprise value of $1.5 billion.\nIt plans on seven new truck models and one new school bus, for a total of 15 all-electric vehicles, representing a full line-up from class 5 to class 8 electric trucks and a full line-up of electric school buses. Its vehicles are produced at its existing manufacturing plant, which has the capacity for the production of up to 2,500 vehicles per year. It intends to open a new plant in the U.S. capable of delivering over 20,000 Lion trucks and buses per year by 2022.\nIts all-electric class 6 and class 8 commercial urban trucks combine power, comfort, and modern technology. Custom-built chassis and cabin designed specifically for an all-electric heavy-duty vehicle. The LionC is an all-electric Type C school bus manufactured in North America. The body and chassis were specifically designed to deliver optimal performance. The LionM is an all-electric midi/minibus that meets paratransit and public transportation requirements. Created and designed specifically for the paratransit market, the is spacious and offers unique features that provide enhanced security and accessibility to the end-users.\nLion Electric had $29 million in revenue in 2020 and expects $204 million in 2021. It forecasts revenue to jump to $3.6 billion a few years later in 2024. Its current market cap is approximately $3.6 billion based on its current stock price of $18.33.\nLightning eMotors (GIK)\nLightning eMotors, formerly Lightning Systems, was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Loveland, Colorado. It provides fleet electrification for familiar commercial vehicle platforms by retrofitting them with its electric powertrains. Lightning eMotors produces electric fleet medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including delivery trucks, shuttle buses, passenger vans, ambulances, bucket trucks, chassis-cab models, and city transit buses. It focuses on urban commercial zero-emission vehicles with a full range of class 3 through class 7 battery-electric and fuel-cell electric vehicles.\nLighting eMotors helps commercial fleets achieve their sustainability goals by offering zero-emission battery-electric vans, trucks, and buses based on familiar, proven vehicles from manufacturers such as Ford and GM. It works with customers, to help them identify their unique commercial electric vehicle, charging, and grant support needs.\nThe Lightning products include integrated all-electric powertrains for the Ford Transit 350HD passenger and cargo vans, Ford E-450 shuttle bus and cutaway models, Ford F-59 step/food van, Ford F-550 cargo trucks and buses, Chevrolet 6500XD Low Cab Forward model, and 30-foot, 35-foot, and 40-foot transit buses.\nLightning has 120 vehicles on the road, and 1,500 vehicles already on order from customers. In addition to making vehicles and powertrains, Lightning also provides a full suite of charging solutions for customers.\nThe deal with GIK has an enterprise value of $650 million, although there is also an Earnout of 20.0% of total pro forma shares outstanding to Lightning eMotors shareholders if the stock crosses certain price thresholds.\nAt the current price, of $11.73, GIK has a market cap of approximately $1 billion, a little more than the original transaction valuation. Similar to XL Fleet, Lightning has the risk that retrofitting may only be an interim business opportunity until more EV trucks are produced.\nPublic Chinese EV Companies\nChina will be the biggest EV market opportunity, and EV start-ups may do better there because there isn't as much entrenched competition from domestic auto companies. China is already the largest EV market in the world, with almost a million EVs sold in 2019. Its EV market represents almost half of the global EV sales volume and is much larger than the U.S. market.\nThe Chinese government has ambitions to become a global leader in new energy vehicles. Soon after the coronavirus outbreak subsided within the country, Chinese authorities announced new policies to support the auto and electric vehicle industries.\nThese Chinese companies are traded through American depository shares (ADS) that contain certain risks. There are financial reporting and transparency risks with these companies, and on top of that, the newer companies are being classified as \"emerging growth\" companies that are already exempt from certain transparency requirements set out in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Like the previous EV stock, these stocks have also been very volatile.\nIn addition to legacy auto manufacturers like BYD, there are also three Chinese EV companies that are publicly traded through American depositary shares.\nBYD Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:BYDDY)\nBYD, which means build your dreams, is the automotive subsidiary of the Chinese multinational BYD Co Ltd. It was founded in January 2003, following BYD Company's acquisition of Tsinchuan Automobile Company. The company produces automobiles, buses, electric bicycles, forklifts, rechargeable batteries, and trucks. The current model range of automobiles includes electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and petrol-engined vehicles. Thirteen years ago, on the advice of his famously skeptical lieutenant, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett made a $232 million investment in BYD, a relatively unknown Chinese car company.\nBy parlaying BYD's rechargeable battery technology into a fast-growing carmaking operation, it gained a foothold in the fledgling electric vehicle market, building longer-lasting batteries and cheaper vehicles than American and Japanese manufacturers were managing to do at the time. In BYD, Buffett and Munger believed they had found a company with a shot at one day becoming the largest player in a global automobile market that was inevitably going electric.\nBYD's start to 2021 was strong with 19,871 plug-in electric cars sold in January in China, including hybrid plug-ins. That was a big increase over 2020 but not as much as 2019.\nLI Auto (LI)\nLixiang, formerly known as Chehejia (\"Car and Home\"), was founded in 2015 and went public in the U.S. on July 30th, 2020. It is a Beijing-based electric-vehicle startup with vertically integrated manufacturing. It designs, researches, manufactures, sells, and offers services featuring a few models of electric vehicles.\nThe company's SUVs are hybrids of a sort. They use electric motors (one on the front axle and one on the rear), but those motors are powered by a combination of a 40.5kWh battery packanda 1.2-liter turbocharged engine paired to a 45-liter fuel tank and a 100kW electric generator, which generates power for the battery pack in real-time. The idea is that the car can be driven for about 100 miles on battery power alone, but it has a total range of nearly 500 miles when leveraging the combustion engine generator.\nThe Company's primary product is an SUV under its brand Li ONE. It also sells peripheral products and provides related services, such as charging stalls, vehicle internet connection services, and extended lifetime warranties. Li Auto is looking to sell a variety of SUVs built on its hybrid technology that range from around $21,000 to about $70,000. The company started shipping its first model in late 2019. It's a midsize SUV is well-appointed and has lots of touchscreens and technology. A full-size premium version is planned for release in 2022.\nDeliveries of Li ONEs were 14,464 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a 67.0% quarter-over-quarter increase and setting a new quarterly record. Deliveries for the full year 2020 reached 32,624 vehicles. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $635 million.\nLI auto went public on July 30th, 2020, raising $1.1 billion at an initial price of $15.50 per share but quickly reached almost $24. It is currently valued at approximately $37 billion at a price of approximately $25.72 per share.\nXPeng (XPEV)\nXiaopeng (XPeng) Motors is a Chinese electric vehicle and technology company that designs and manufactures smart cars. It was founded in 2015 and went public on August 27, 2020, using American depository shares, raising about $1 billion. To date, it has raised about $2.6 billion.\nXPeng aims its EVs at technology-savvy middle-class Chinese consumers, with prices ranging from $22,000 to $45,000 after government subsidies. In some ways, it is a Tesla knock-off at a much lower price. XPeng started production of the G3 in November 2018, and as of July 31, 2020, delivered 18,741. It started production of the P7 and began delivery in May 2020, and as of July 31, 2020, it had delivered 1,966 EVs. The P7 has a range of more than 400 miles. It plans to launch a third Smart EV, a sedan, in 2021. The G3 was among the top-three best-selling electric SUVs in China in 2019.\nXPeng is interesting because it has a platform strategy and is moving aggressively into autonomous driving. It uses a platform strategy to expand product offerings by launching one Smart EV model each year to broaden the addressable market. It builds new models on two highly flexible Smart EV platforms, called David and Edward, respectively. The David platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,600 millimeters to 2,800 millimeters, and the Edward platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,800 millimeters to 3,100 millimeters. It also adopted a platform approach for software systems.\nXPeng claims to be developing an autonomous driving capability for its EVs. The P7 is the first production vehicle to feature the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Xavier system-on-a-chip (SoC) autonomous driving platform. The company's Smart Electric Platform Architecture (SEPA) runs on 2 chips - NVIDIA for the XPILOT and Qualcomm's Snapdragon™ 820A for intelligent services and infotainment, including cameras inside and outside, radars, HD-map, and ultrasonic sensors. Like Tesla, it claims it can create sufficiently-autonomous driving without lidar.\nTo enhance brand recognition and allow more people to experience its Smart EVs, it deployed a small number of Smart EVs in a ride-hailing service in Guangzhou on a trial basis, but it has no current plan to scale up a ride-hailing service.\nXpeng sees first-quarter 2021 deliveries rising 450% year-over-year to 12,500 vehicles. Revenues are expected to increase 533% from a year ago. The company didn't provide bottom-line estimates for the quarter, but will likely post another net loss as it ramps up manufacturing, invests in R&D, and builds out a new manufacturing plant set to open in 2022.\nXpeng reported selling 12,964 vehicles in Q4 2020, up 303% from a year ago. It delivered a total of 27,041 vehicles in 2020, up 112%. It makes the P7 sedan, a rival to the made-in-China Tesla Model 3, and the small G3 SUV.\nThe stock opened on August 27, 2020 at a price of $15 and a valuation of $11 billion, but its stock jumped more than 40% shortly after. Its current valuation is about $35 billion at a stock price of approximately $36.13 per share. It had about $300 million in revenue in 2019 with a loss of about $500 million.\nNio (NIO)\nUnlike previous companies, Nio has been a public company for some time. It originally went public in the U.S. back in September of 2018, selling IPO shares at $6.26 and raising $1 billion.\nNio's IPO was far from smooth. After going public at $6.26 per share, it traded down to nearly $1. Then in the middle of the coronavirus outbreak, Nio received a much-needed investment of $1 billion from investors, including state-backed entities.\nNio designs, jointly manufactures, and sells smart and connected premium electric vehicles, attempting to develop next-generation technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving, and artificial intelligence. Joint manufacturing means that it uses a state-owned contract manufacturer to build its cars.\nNio plans to provide customers with comprehensive, convenient, and innovative charging solutions and other user-centric services. It began deliveries of the ES8, a 7-seater high-performance premium electric SUV in China in June 2018, and its variant, the six-seater ES8, in March 2019. Nio officially launched the ES6, a 5-seater high-performance premium electric SUV, in December 2018 and began deliveries in June 2019. It officially launched the EC6, a 5-seater smart premium electric Coupe SUV, in December 2019 with deliveries in 2020.\nNio sold 17,353 EVs in Q4/2020 and 43,728 for the year. It warned a shortage in chips and batteries will force a production slowdown to 7,500 a month in Q2 from 10,000 vehicles a month in February.\nNio currently trades at more than $43 per share, including a big jump recently, for a valuation of approximately $48 billion. It had revenue of $2.3 billion in 2019 for a loss of $3.8 billion.\nSummary\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this should provide exciting new investment opportunities. However, the investment terrain is complex. There are dozens of new start-ups where the public can now invest that were previously exclusively venture capital investment opportunities. Many of these are following different roads to success. There are legacy auto manufacturers that could prosper or get destroyed in this transition. There are some exciting new EV company opportunities in China. And then there is Tesla.\nThis EV roadmap is intended to help investors explore different roads to investment by explaining the basic strategies for these EV companies. These roads can have different opportunities and risks, and the roadmap helps to frame these. Above all, valuation is an overriding risk that is highlighted throughout this article.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":353137041,"gmtCreate":1616468171283,"gmtModify":1704794479361,"author":{"id":"3559521312989131","authorId":"3559521312989131","name":"Leon_Sze","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1423edccbecef5f164a593336c457363","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3559521312989131","authorIdStr":"3559521312989131"},"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353137041","repostId":1196402560,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196402560","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616134696,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196402560?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-19 14:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"New Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196402560","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, an","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>It's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.</li>\n <li>Last October, I wrote a popular article providing a roadmap for investing in electric vehicles, but since then, so much has changed: new entrants, new strategies, fluctuating valuations, etc.</li>\n <li>So, I updated and greatly expanded the previous EV investment roadmap.</li>\n <li>This update includes a deeper look at valuations for 23 EV companies with revenue projections, when available.</li>\n <li>It also classifies these EV companies into their primary market categories and summarizes their different strategies.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb96acc615cba9c7842860658c019ab1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\">Photo by Sven Loeffler/iStock via Getty Images\nMy article&nbsp;Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap&nbsp;published five months ago, was popular, and some followers have requested an update. Many new EV companies entered the market, most of them through SPACs. Valuations fluctuated wildly, and there has been a great deal of publicity around these companies.\nThis new updated EV investment roadmap is greatly expanded. In addition to updating the strategies and progress of companies previously discussed, I expanded the number of companies covered. This article also groups EV companies into their primary markets, enabling better comparisons and evaluation of market opportunities. In addition, it includes a comparative valuation chart showing every company's market cap with a comparison to projected revenue, where possible. This takes advantage (good or bad) of looking at the long-term revenue forecasts provided in SPAC mergers that public companies can't make.\nIn addition to the EV manufacturers discussed here, there are also EV investment opportunities in charging station companies, battery manufacturers, and battery materials companies. These were covered in the original roadmap and may also be updated in a later article.\nApproximately 2 million EVs were sold in 2019, and although the number declined along with all auto sales in 2020, it is forecasted to increase in 2021 and reach 8-10 million by 2025. Some forecast that EV sales will be greater than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2030, or even earlier. The automobile market appears to be moving toward a historical transformation, and exceptional investment gains can be made by anticipating new emerging industries and investing in the eventual winners of those new industries. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)are obvious examples. Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to create a new emerging industry.\nThere are also significant risks. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to be released in the next three years, which will drive rapid growth in EV sales. However, the expected sales from these new models, as well as the increasing expectations from Tesla, most likely exceed the total projected market. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the companies covered here won't exist five years from now. It reminds me of the internet bubble of the late 1990s when scores of internet-based companies went public with little or no revenue. Almost all of these failed within three years -- however, a couple, including Amazon, went on to enormous success.\nEVs provide a major new investment opportunity with high risks. To succeed, you need to have a clear EV investment roadmap.\nSo, how can you invest in this new emerging market? The EV landscape is complex and investment opportunities are varied. While Tesla is the unquestioned leader in EVs, some consider it overvalued and unlikely to show exceptional returns to new investors. The current U.S. legacy automakers are committed to introducing many new EVs in the next few years, and they have some entrenched advantages with volume manufacturing capabilities, a dealer infrastructure, and loyal customers. There are exciting new EV start-ups in the U.S. that have come public this year, mostly through Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), and there are several interesting publicly traded Chinese EV manufacturers.\nThis new roadmap for EV investment classifies companies into three primary markets segments:\n<ul>\n <li>TheConsumer Retailsegment includes EVs sold to consumers individually, such as SUVs, pickup trucks, sedans, etc.</li>\n <li>TheCommercial Deliverysegment includes local delivery EV vans and trucks sold to fleets.</li>\n <li>TheMedium- and Long-Haul Truckingsegment includes heavier Class 4 - Class 8 trucks, as well as special industrial vehicles.</li>\n</ul>\nIn addition, it categorizesLegacy ManufacturersandChinese EV Companies. This enables investors to evaluate investment opportunities by considering unique opportunities within each market segment.\nThere is an enormous amount of investment optimism for EVs, and retail investors have been aggressively buying into EV stocks with seemingly no regard for valuation. Then there is the additional challenge of valuing companies with no revenue, especially those coming public through SPACs. So, valuation is an important investment consideration.\nSo let's start by looking at an overview of comparative EV valuations.\nEV Investment Valuation Overview\nThe following chart summarizes valuations for 23 EV companies, including several legacy companies. For SPACs, market cap estimates are computed using the pro forma number of shares at closing, otherwise using the valuation of the SPAC prior to closing drastically underestimates the valuation, which may be misleading to novice investors. Price/Sales ratios (market cap divided by revenue) are used to compare valuations. As a benchmark, current P/S ratios vary. For example, auto and truck companies have a ratio of 2.7X. Software companies have the highest ratios of over 10X.\nIn the chart, companies that currently have revenue show current P/S ratios. Where projections are available, projected P/S ratios are computed. A note of caution, however. Many of the EV companies came public through SPACs and published their projections (which public companies cannot do), and many of these are likely to prove unrealistic.\nAll of the longer-term revenue projections come from the company (C) forecasts with a SPAC. Some of these may turn out to be accurate, not many are most likely unrealistic. Some, like Lucid, Faraday, and Arrival forecast hitting more than $10 billion in revenue in a few years, when it took Tesla more than 10. Things are different now and they might achieve these, but they could also find that it will take longer to complete development, ramp up production, and create enough customer demand. Many companies may also find that there will be significant capital requirements to achieve this type of growth, and shareholders will be diluted.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc360dfa7de01516b7f68d5962cf3017\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"883\">\nTesla, the \"gold standard\" in EVs, has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, which many people believe is overvalued. Its market cap is approximately 20X 2020 revenue and 10X estimated 2022 revenue.\nTesla (TSLA)\nIn the U.S., and to a lesser extent in China, Tesla is the dominant EV provider. It has approximately 60% of the U.S. EV market and about 20% of the market in China. I own a Tesla and love it, but an investment in Tesla stock requires getting comfortable with its valuation. Tesla has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, although declining lately, which some consider still overvalued while others see upside potential.\nThe investment opportunity with Tesla is based on the expectation that it will continue to dominate the EV market, or at least maintain significant market share, despite much greater competition from the expected introduction of hundreds of new EV models in the next few years.\nThere is a great deal already published about Tesla, so I'll move on.\nLegacy Automakers\nSome people think that the legacy automakers will simply fade away. Historically, that was the case in some other industries, but it is not going to happen to most automakers. They are not standing still waiting to become obsolete. Most have aggressive strategies to replace ICE vehicles with EVs. GM plans to invest $27 billion and build and launch as many as 30 new EV models by 2025. Ford plans to invest $29 billion in EVs by 2025 and launch as many as 16 EVs in the next two years. Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY)has also committed billions to develop new EVs.\nThe competitive advantage that legacy automakers have in selling their new EVs is their dealer network. Will new EV customers prefer to continue going to their regular auto dealer to buy their new EV?\nAlmost all legacy automakers worldwide are developing and launching EVs including Volkswagen, Peugeot, Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi, Hyundai/Kia. Let's look a little more closely at GM and Ford as the leaders in the U.S.\nGeneral Motors (GM)\nGM has committed to introducing 20 new electric vehicles by 2023, including EVs across Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC, and Buick. It recently announced that it has already sold out the first-year production of its Hummer electric pickup. By mid-decade, it expects to sell a million EVs per year in its two largest markets: North America and China. As a reference point, Tesla reported deliveries of 367,500 vehicles globally in 2019.\nGM has a solid platform strategy for its EVs. It plans on building its EVs using five interchangeable drive units and three different motors from its Ultium Drive System platform. Ultium energy options range from 50 to 200 kWh, which could enable an estimated range of up to 400 miles. Most of its EVs will have 400-volt battery packs and up to 200 kW fast-charging capability while the truck platform will have 800-volt battery packs and 350 kW fast-charging capabilities.\nThe key building blocks of the Ultium battery system are large-scale, high-energy cells. Engineered in partnership with LG Energy Solutions, they use both advanced chemistry and a smart cell design that's optimized for a broad portfolio of EVs. GM engineers and scientists are actively researching and testing new elements in battery chemistry to lower costs and improve charge times. Ultium can contain either vertically- or horizontally-stacked cells to integrate into vehicle design: vertically for trucks, SUVs, and crossovers, or horizontally for cars and performance vehicles. As new chemistry is developed and becomes available, the battery management system could digitally update the modules.\nGM also has other EV opportunities with its BrightDrop commercial EV service and its Cruise subsidiary. BrightDrop will not just sell delivery EVs, it will provide an entire service platform for commercial delivery customers. Its set of electric delivery vehicles starts with the EV600 and includes the BrightDrop EP1, a pod-like electric pallet. SeeGeneral Motors' Aggressive EV/AV Strategies May Payoff Big.\nWith its highest stock price of $61.65, GM's current market cap is approximately $89 billion, increasing primarily because of its progress with EVs. This approximately 3X valuation in 2018, but still only 13% of Tesla.\nFord (F)\nFord is also investing heavily in EVs. It just introduced the Mustang Mach-E, a battery-powered crossover with sports car styling, and plans to introduce an all-electric version of its best-selling F-150 pickup later this year. Also, planned is an electric edition of the full-size Transit van, which has been popular in the commercial delivery market. Ford has confirmed plans to build a luxury Lincoln crossover on a battery-powered platform provided by Rivian. The automaker also plans to introduce two new midsize electric crossovers, one each for the Ford and Lincoln brands by 2023.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd8523e15bccc57790940d4218f7b94e\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"1080\">Mustang Mach-E. Source: Ford\nFord's market cap is approximately $51 billion, twice its previous market cap, and also increasing.\nConsumer Retail EV Companies\nThe consumer retail market has some unique characteristics for new EV companies. Sales are made individually, not in fleets. This diversifies the risk upon launch because only a sufficient number of customers need to be attracted to the new EV. A wave of popularity can provide terrific momentum.\nHowever, the lack of a dealer network can be an impediment. Selling EVs directly to consumers instead of through dealers is prohibited in most states. By law, auto manufacturers can't compete with franchised dealers. These are laws that go back many decades to protect dealers. This can be a major impediment for new companies without established independent dealer franchises. So, new AV companies. like Tesla, need to sell their vehicles online. Tesla has successfully done this, but it took a lot of work and time. Lack of a dealer network also creates impediments in service.\nIn addition, over the next 4-5 years, autonomous capabilities will be increasingly important to luxury vehicles. This may prove to be a challenge to start-up EV companies because they can't afford to develop this technology.\nLet's look closer at the alternative consumer retail EV investments.\nLucid Motors (CCIV)\nLucid was founded in 2007 under the name Atieva and originally focused on building electric vehicle batteries and powertrains for other vehicle manufacturers. The company rebranded itself as Lucid Motors in October 2016 and shifted its strategy to develop an all-electric, high-performance, luxury vehicle. Shortly after that, it encountered financial difficulties and struggled to get short-term funding. In 2018 it raised more than $1 billion in investment, primarily from Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund, and gave up a majority of the company.\nLucid Motors reached an agreement to become a publicly-traded company through a merger with the SPAC Churchill Capital IV Corp., in one of the largest deals SPAC EV deals. The combined company, in which Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund will continue to be the largest shareholder, had a transaction equity value of $11.75 billion (for $10/share). At the same time, it closed a PIPE investment priced at $15 a share, giving it an implied pro forma equity value of $24 billion. Rumors about this deal circulated before the transaction was formally announced, making it one of the most anticipated SPAC deals. The hype and speculation drove up the stock price of Churchill Capital IV Corp. from its opening price of $10 a share to almost $60. I believe that some of this may have been driven by novice SPAC investors who didn't realize that the valuation of CCIV didn't include the eventual valuation of Lucid. The share price dropped more than 30% after the details of the deal were announced. It's also likely that Lucid renegotiated the terms of the merger based on the price jump.\nThe company's first product is the Lucid Air, a well-equipped luxury electric vehicle that features 406 miles of projected range and 480 horsepower with a starting price of $77,400, or $69,900 after the U.S. Federal Tax Credit of $7,500. This new Lucid Air model is positioned as a high-performance, ultra-efficient luxury EV sedan in a line of future vehicles that are expected to include Lucid Air Touring, Grand Touring, and Dream Edition versions.\nThe company plans to begin production and deliveries of the Lucid Air in North America in the second half of 2021. Previously the company aimed to begin deliveries earlier in 2021. It intends to sell the car in Europe in 2022, followed by China in 2023. Lucid vehicles will be produced at its new factory in Casa Grande, Arizona. The company plans to expand the factory in phases in the coming years to have the capacity to produce 365,000 units per year at scale. The initial phase of the $700 million factory construction was completed late last year and will have the capacity to produce 30,000 vehicles a year.\nLucid also apparently has a commitment to build an assembly plant in Saudi Arabia, which was rumored to be a condition of the $1 billion investment from the Saudi public fund. The Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund also provided $600 million in bridge financing and invested in the SPAC deal as well. So, while this assembly plant may be expensive and may not be critical, it will most likely need to happen.\nLucid has ambitious plans to achieve $14 billion in revenue in 2025, and its current stock price at $29.17, which gives it a market cap of more than $46 billion, may already reflect those ambitions. Its market cap is roughly the same as Ford.\nFisker (FSR)\nFisker, which had its origins with Fisker Automotive, is an interesting story that ended in bankruptcy. Henrik Fisker originally co-founded Fisker Automotive in 2007. He was responsible for designing many premium cars such as the Aston Martin. Subsequently, Fisker Automotive had to deal with a Tesla lawsuit against Fisker Automotive alleging it stole Tesla's technology, a controversial $528.7 million conditional loan from the Department of Energy, a recall of its battery produced by A123, and the loss of several hundred vehicles in hurricane Sandy. Henrik Fisker resigned in March 2013 because of disagreements over business strategy and in November 2013, Fisker filed its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case.\nHowever, Henrik Fisker retained the Fisker brand and trademarks, and in 2016 he started another electric vehicle company named Fisker Inc. with the Fisker brand and trademarks. In 2019, Fisker shifted from developing a sports car with a solid-state battery to the Ocean SUV featuring a lithium-ion battery, which it later abandoned for a solid-state battery.\nFisker is positioning itself in a unique segment for those who want the most environmentally friendly EV. While this may be an early growth segment for EVs, it's difficult to estimate its eventual competitive advantage and the size of this environmentally-friendly market segment.\nThe Ocean is a crossover made of recycled metal and plastic with an expected base price of $37,499, and an expected lease of less than $400 a month. Fisker's plan is essentially a lease-only business model that lets customers keep a vehicle for years or return it at any time. It aims to source motors, batteries, and other components from technical partnerships with automakers and will outsource production from existing auto plants. Fisker is currently taking reservations at $250 for the Ocean. It also announced an agreement with Foxconn to jointly develop a vehicle pioneering a new market segment to be sold globally under the Fisker brand commencing in Q4 2023. at the end of 2022. Production will start at Magna Steyr's manufacturing facilities in Europe. At the end of February 2021, it had 12,467 cancellable reservations.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/924a617c90fc3276d7bdab8c64ebfdcf\" tg-width=\"744\" tg-height=\"389\">Fisker Ocean. Source: Fisker\nFisker went public using a SPAC (Spartan Energy). The original combination with SPAQ in October 2020 was valued at $2.9 billion with a cash investment of approximately $1 billion. The stock currently trades at approximately $21 per share, after reaching a high of $28.50, from the original price of $10, which is a market cap of $4.6 billion. Fisker projects $3.3 billion in revenue in 2023. It had almost $1 billion in cash at the end of 2020 and expected to use almost half of this in 2021: $250 million on operating expenses and $250 million in capital investments. If the Ocean is delayed into 2023, Fisker risks missing its revenue objective and will potentially need additional cash to complete development and launch.\nFaraday Future (PSAC)\nFaraday Future was originally established in May 2014 by Chinese businessman Jia Yueting. It is headquartered in Los Angeles and has offices in Silicon Valley, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu. Faraday Future also had a turbulent history. In 2016, it struggled financially, and in 2017 some key executives departed over a dispute about financial issues. They later founded Canoo.\nIn December 2018 the company announced layoffs due to a cash crunch and financial troubles. The company's founder Jia Yueting filed for personal bankruptcy in the United States' federal court in Delaware on October 14, 2019. Following Jia's personal bankruptcy, he decided to step down from his role as CEO of Faraday Future in order to assume a new position as the Chief Product and User Officer. He was replaced as CEO by Carsten Breitfeld, the former CEO at rival electric vehicle startup Byton.\nSomehow, Faraday was able to raise $2.3 billion in private funding over 5 rounds from a variety of investors. In early 2018, it received $1.5 billion in funding from an undisclosed investor from Hong Kong.\nFaraday's flagship product offering will be the FF 91, featuring 1,050 HP, 0-60 mph in less than 2.4 seconds, zero gravity seats with the largest 60-degree reclining angles, and a user experience designed to create a mobile, connected, and luxurious living space. The FF 91 is targeted to launch in 2022.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e38bfb3211c72bb73bc26f2ebe296fe\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"854\">FF 91. Source: Faraday Future\nIts strategic partners include one of China's top three OEMs and a critical Chinese city, which the company believes will help establish its presence in the Chinese vehicle market.\nFaraday Future plans several cars based on its Variable Platform Architecture. FF 91 is the first production vehicle and flagship model. Pricing will range between $120,000 and upwards of $200,000, which places it against formidable opponents. Faraday Future is already looking forward to expanding its range with a pair of smaller models named FF 81 and FF 71. The FF 81 is planned to be priced at $75,000 to 95,000 with a 2023 release. The FF 71 is planned to be priced at $45,000 to $65,000 with a planned release of 2024.\nThe Primary Manufacturing Facility for FF 91 is in Hanford, CA with contract manufacturing for future models in Gunsan, South Korea.\nFaraday Future is planning high-Level automation with a Level-3 capable system using a redundant safety architecture based on NVIDIA Xavier System-on-a-chip. It will be capable of highway auto-drive and hardware ready for advanced auto-drive. It is targeting full autonomous valet parking &amp; summon in any parking lot or structure. Eventually, it expects full auto-drive, including full 360˚ sensor coverage for advanced auto-drive &amp; auto-park features.\nIn January 2021, Faraday Future announced that the company would go public through a reverse merger with the special purpose acquisition company Property Solutions Acquisition Corp. (PSAC). The combined company will be valued at $3.4 billion. Faraday Future is expected to set up contract manufacturing operations in China through their partnership with Geely. Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn is also expected to serve as an additional strategic partner.\nFaraday Future projects $10.5 billion in revenue in 2024 and $21.5 billion in 2025. Revenue is expected to start in 2022 with the delivery of 2,400 vehicles for $504 million. Most likely these projections could prove to be optimistic. At a current stock price of approximately $12.80, it has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nLordstown Motors (RIDE)\nLordstown Motors based in Lordstown, Ohio, was originally founded in 2018 by Steve Burns, the former CEO of Workhorse Group. The company licensed technology from Workhorse in return for royalties and a 10% ownership. Lordstown is named after the famous GM Lordstown manufacturing plant, which it acquired in November 2019 in an unusual transaction. GM announced that it was closing the plant and was under a great deal of pressure for that decision. So, GM \"sold\" the plant to a company that was renamed Lordstown for an estimated $20 million that it loaned to the acquiring company. Subsequently, the sale was redefined to be part of a $75 million investment by GM, of which $50 million was an in-kind exchange for the plant.\nLordstown went public through the SPAC DiamondPeak Holdings Corp. in 2020. It currently has more than 400 employees.\nIts first product is the Lordstown Endurance, a full-sized EV pickup truck. Lordstown is positioning Endurance for the pickup fleet market segment. The expected price is $52,000+, and it claimed to have more than 100,000 pre-orders by January 2021. However, a recent research article published by a short seller claimed \"Our research has revealed that Lordstown's order book consists of fake or entirely non-binding orders, from customers that generally do not even have fleets of vehicles.\" Lordstown is disputing that article.\nIt believes the fleet pickup market segment is underserved with no current EV-focused competition. It estimates that the full-sized pick-up truck fleet market is 1.2 million vehicles per year in the U.S., but it's more fragmented than other truck fleets. Pickup \"fleets\" tend to be much smaller and local, so there may not be much of a market distinction for a small company buying several EV pickups from a traditional auto dealer. About half of the total U.S. pickup market is classified as fleet sales, meaning more than one.\nEven though Lordstown is targeting the commercial fleet market, it is a similar product to the Ford EV F-150. So I classify it in the consumer EV category. It is a class 2 vehicle. Lordstown also may enter the SUV market in the longer-term.\nThe Endurance will compete against future models from Rivian and Tesla, as well as Ford and GM in ICE pick-ups and their upcoming EV pick-ups. Ford plans on selling its EV F-150 in mid-2022. Initial production of the Endurance is expected in the second half of 2021, so it may have a short market advantage. Nevertheless, it forecasts selling 65,000 vehicles in 2023 and 107,000 in 2024. These estimates could be a large percentage of the EV pick-up market in those years.\nAt the SPAC merger, the implied valuation for Lordstown was $1.6 billion, including a $500 million PIPE and the $75 million by GM. Lordstown's financial projections appear to be aggressive. It projects to start shipping the Endurance in late 2021 with projected revenue in 2022 of $1.7 billion, increasing to $5.8 billion in 2024. Its stock price at approximately $13.60 values the company at a market cap of approximately $2.2 billion. The value of the company depends on the likelihood of achieving its projections.\nA fleet sales strategy makes sense for Lordstown since it would be too expensive to build a retail sales and service capability. However, it's not clear that this will become a distinct competitive advantage. Some small fleets may still prefer to buy their EV pickups from established local dealers with service capabilities.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nCanoo started as Evelozcity in 2017 and rebranded as Canoo in the spring of 2019. Canoo is a Los Angeles-based company that develops electric vehicles. It has over 350 employees. Canoo has designed a modular electric platform purpose-built to deliver maximum vehicle interior space, which is adaptable to support a wide range of vehicle applications for consumers and businesses. Canoo expects to launch its first consumer model in 2022, simply named the Canoo that will be available by subscription, followed shortly after by a multi-purpose delivery vehicle and a sports vehicle, each built off of the same underlying platform. Canoo went public using a SPAC (Hennessy Capital Acquisition) and now trades as GOEV.\nCanoo's all-electric skateboard-like platform is designed to support both consumer retail and commercial vehicle configurations. The EV leverages Canoo's flat skateboard architecture for a high level of usable interior space. Its commercial vehicle program, expected in 2023, addresses a projected $50B+ last-mile delivery market with an EV platform that maximizes cargo volume.\nHyundai Motor Group said it would jointly develop an electric vehicle platform with the company.\nCanoo's platform strategy is interesting. It could be used as an EV platform for custom fleets of delivery vehicles. It has no AV development, but it claims to be \"AV Ready\" which could be useful for AV companies wanting to build custom AV delivery fleets.\nIts all-electric multi-purpose delivery vehicle is expected to be priced starting at approximately $33,000. It is based on Canoo's proprietary electric platform and will be offered in two initial size variants, with others to follow. Limited availability will begin in 2022, with scaled production and launch planned for 2023. Customers can pre-order the multi-purpose delivery vehicle for a refundable deposit of $100 per vehicle\nIt plans to offer two multi-purpose delivery vehicles: the MPDV1 and the larger MPDV2. The first has a 200-foot cargo volume and a range of 130-200 miles. It offers more capacity than today's ICE delivery vehicles at an affordable price with urban mobility enabled by a space-efficient footprint. The vehicle is also designed to fit within many height-restricted areas like parking garages.\nThe MPDV2 has a cargo volume of 450 feet and a range of 90-190 miles. Its roof and step-in height enable individuals to easily walk-in the vehicle and accommodate a standing position while inside.\nThe original SPAC transaction provided approximately $600 million, with a pro forma equity value of approximately $2.4 billion. Like other SPAC mergers, its stock price has fluctuated. It currently trades at about $15.90 per share for a market cap of approximately $3.7 billion. Canoo projects $2.0 billion in revenue in 2025 from about $500 million in engineering services, $1.2 billion from its consumer vehicle subscriptions, and the remainder from its commercial program. Canoo expects revenue of more than $300 million in 2022 after the launch of its lifestyle consumer vehicle.\nSince its first products are aimed at consumers, as is most of its forecasted 2025 revenue, I categorize it primarily as a consumer EV company. However, I think the design of that Canoo vehicle may not attract enough customers. More importantly, its subscription service way of selling its EV to consumers is risky. I think it has more potential in the commercial market, however, a dual strategy (consumer and commercial) is challenging. I like its skateboard platform design and that could prove to be a competitive advantage.\nRivian\nAlthough not yet public, I include Rivian because it has plans for an IPO as soon as Sept 2021, although it could slip into 2022. There are rumors that the company is targeting a market valuation of approximately $50B. Rivian has already raised more than $8 billion to date from Amazon, Ford, T. Rowe Price, and others.\nRivian has developed and vertically integrated a connected electric platform that can be flexibly applied to a range of applications, including the company's adventure products, as well as B2B products such as the Amazon last-mile delivery vans. The company's initial products, the R1T and R1S, provide a combination of performance, off-road capability, and utility. These vehicles will be produced at Rivian's manufacturing plant in Normal, Ill., with customer deliveries expected to begin in summer 2021. The launch of the R1S three-row electric SUV will follow in August.\nAdditional lower-priced models are being planned. The expected R2 series would include at least two smaller electric vehicles to coincide with the smaller platform, then another platform for R3.\nCommercial Delivery EV Companies\nEV truck companies differ based on the type of truck they are developing. The technology and markets are very different, so I separate them into two categories. The first category includes commercial delivery vehicles.\nCompanies making EV delivery vehicles have some major advantages that could make them good investments. First, delivery vehicles typically travel less than 250 miles during a day, so they can be conveniently recharged overnight. Secondly, they are typically sold in large quantities to fleets. This means that building a retail sales infrastructure is not necessary. It only requires a small salesforce. In addition, maintenance can also be provided at the fleet's operational center, so not as many service centers are required.\nThe disadvantage in this market is that there are a relatively small number of customers that buy in large volumes, so if the EV manufacturer can't get enough large customers, they may not be able to stay in business. GM estimates the combined market opportunity for parcel and food delivery, as well as reverse logistics, in the U.S. will be more than $850 billion by 2025.\nThe commercial market is expected to be a major growth area for EVs. Other start-up automakers like Rivian as well as legacy automakers such as Ford, Daimler, and GM have announced plans to enter the segment. GM recently announced its BrightDrop ecosystem for commercial customers that includes an all-new electric delivery van, the EV600 available by the end of 2021, as well as an integrated autonomous pallet and related services.\nThis group of EV companies focuses primarily on commercial delivery. In general, these are in the light-duty trucks category, although it also includes some medium-duty trucks. This generally includes the following commercial truck classes:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 1: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 0-6,000 pounds or 0-2,722 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 2: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 6,001-10,000 pounds or 2,722-4,536 kilograms.1</li>\n <li>Class 3: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 10,001-14,000 pounds or 4,536-6,350 kilograms.</li>\n</ul>\nIt can also include somewhat larger medium-duty EV delivery trucks:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.</li>\n</ul>\nEV delivery trucks also have an advantage over ICE vehicles because they can have a greater delivery storage space. Smaller buses and transit vehicles are also included in this category.\nLast-mile package delivery is not an immediate-term autonomous vehicle opportunity because it requires a delivery person to be on the truck anyway.\nWorkhorse Group (WKHS)\nWorkhorse has been a public company for ten years. Originally AMP Electric Vehicles, it was established in 2007 as a developmental-stage vehicle electrification company, focusing on conversions. AMP Electric Vehicles went public in 2010 trading on the OTC market under the AMPD symbol. When the economic benefits of conversion became less certain, it pivoted away from passenger vehicles and began to focus on electrifying commercial vehicles. AMP acquired the Workhorse brand and the Workhorse custom chassis assembly plant in Union City. In March of 2013, AMP formally changed its name to Workhorse Group Incorporated.\nThe Company designs and builds a last-mile delivery electric vehicle. The C-Series EVs cover the larger size of commercial delivery vehicles in Classes 3-5. As part of its solutions, it also develops cloud-based, real-time telematics performance monitoring systems. It sells its vehicles to fleet customers directly and through its primary distributor, Ryder Systems. It is currently focused on bringing the C-Series electric delivery truck to market and fulfilling the existing backlog of orders.\nThe C-Series looks like a viable EV replacement for the 350,000 last-mile delivery vehicles sold in the U.S. annually. It recently announced an increased driving range from 100 miles to 160, which should open more market opportunities. It has a viable short-term go-to-market strategy selling fleets to delivery companies. It currently has test vehicles with UPS, DHL, FedEx, Amazon, and Walmart.\nWorkhorse recently lost out on the United States Postal Services Next Generation Delivery Vehicle project, however, it is in the process of challenging this decision. Additionally, its investment in Lordstown also provides an indirect investment opportunity. On November 7, 2019, the Company entered a transaction with Lordstown Motors to grant LMC a perpetual and worldwide license to certain intellectual property relating to its W-15 electric pickup truck platform and related technology in exchange for royalties, equity interest (approximately 10%) in LMC, and other considerations. This was a $320 million asset for Workhorse at the end of 2020.\nWorkhorse received a significant increase in orders in Q4/2020 but built just seven trucks in the fourth quarter due to production systems and supply chain issues. Workhorse plans to continue to take it slow, striving to build three of its composite-body battery-electric trucks a day in March with a plan to reach 10 trucks a day by the end of June. This makes its original 2021 goal of producing 1,800 trucks unlikely. It partnered with Hitachi and Hitachi Capital America (\"HCA\") to improve the Company's manufacturing, operational, and supply chain capabilities as well as to develop a national dealer network to support Workhorse's sales with vehicle financing options for both dealers and customers.\nWorkhorse has a market cap of approximately $1.9 billion. While Workhorse had ongoing revenue, unlike many other new EV companies, its revenue is still insignificant. It had a revenue of $1.4 million in 2020 and $377,000 in 2019. It has a backlog of over 8,000 vehicles but doesn't expect to be able to build many of those in 2021. It raised $270 million in capital over several financings, providing the Company with additional capital to build its backlog. It had cash of $215 million as of March 1, 2021. Because Workhorse is a traditional public company, it hasn't made long-term financial projections like SPAC-based companies.\nElectric Last Mile (FIII)\nElectric Last Mile, based in Troy Michigan, was founded by Jason Luo, former CEO of Ford China before it was acquired by China's Ningbo Joyson Electronic for $920 million in 2016, including James Taylor, former CEO of GM's Hummer brand and former CEO of electric car maker Karma Automotive. Taylor serves as the company's top executive with Luo as the company's chairman.\nThe company plans to launch a small electric delivery van (class 1-2), called the UD-1, in the third quarter of 2021, and then introduce an Urban Utility vehicle (Class 2-3) in 2022. These are expected to compete with Workhorse, Rivian, Canoo, as well as the Ford eTransit and the GMC BV1, none of which is expected to be a Class 1 vehicle.\nThe company says it has 30,000 preorders for its van, representing more than $1 billion in sales. Electric Last Miles vehicles will be based on Sokon's commercial van made in China through a joint venture with Dongfeng Automobile Co Ltd. in order to accelerate development time.\nElectric Last Mile (ELM) is expected to manufacture the vans in a former General Motors Co. Hummer plant in Mishawaka, Ind., that the company is acquiring from China's Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co. Ltd. The plant has the capacity to produce 100,000 vehicles annually with plans to build approximately 4,000 UD-1 vans by the end of 2021. The UD-1 has a starting price of $32,500 and a range of 150 miles. The battery for the vehicle is expected to be supplied by the Chinese battery company CATL.\nELM believes that it has a competitive advantage because its first vehicle, the ELM Urban Delivery, is scheduled to be available in 2021. It is based on a proven, existing platform developed and sold by Sokon Group in the Asian market, where there are 30,000 of these electric delivery vehicles driving 1.5 million miles every day. At the close of the business combination, ELM will be an independent, U.S. company producing electric vehicles in the U.S. with Sokon Group providing access to its know-how, parts supply, and field and service data.\nELM expects that the Urban Delivery vehicle will be the first electric delivery vehicle coming to market in the class 1 category (GVW of 6,000 lbs or less) in the U.S. It will also have 35% more carrying volume compared to similar ICE delivery vehicles, a critical part of the value proposition. It also anticipates that its price and greater carrying volume will allow it to take market share from the class 2 category of vehicles as well.\nIts crossover product portfolio strategy targets commercial delivery vehicles spanning from class 1 to class 3, which represents over 80% of the last mile market.\nELM anticipates $122 million in revenue in 2021, rapidly increasing to $3 billion in 2025. The price of FIII stock increased immediately following its announcement with Electric Last Mile, rising more than 40% to $14.50, but now it has dropped closer to the original deal price to $10.25 for a market cap of approximately $1.5 billion.\nGreenPower Motor Company (GP)\nGreenPower Motor Company Inc. is a Canadian battery-electric bus manufacturer with multiple models of high- and low-floor vehicles, including transit buses, school buses, and shuttles. GreenPower offers commercial vehicles for delivery, public transit, schools, vanpooling, micro-transit, shuttles, and is developing a capability of autonomous operation. It went public on August 28, 2020.\nIn 2014 GreenPower launched its first purpose-built, battery-electric bus, the EV350, 40-foot transit bus. GreenPower received its first order in 2017 for ten EV350s from the City of Porterville, California.\nGreenPower's electric buses are purpose-built and designed to be all-electric, allowing it to put the battery and propulsion system in optimized locations that provide weight and structural advantages. Its primary EV is the EV Star with more than 120 vehicles delivered. It comes in several variations:\n<ul>\n <li>EV Star - Up to 19 passengers</li>\n <li>EV Star Plus - Up to 24 passengers</li>\n <li>EV Star ADA - Passenger and curbside lift for ADA</li>\n <li>EV Star Cargo - 5,000 pounds of load</li>\n <li>EV Star Cargo Plus - 570 cubic feet of cargo space.</li>\n</ul>\nIts EV school bus seats up to 90 students and has a range of up to 150 miles.\nGreenPower had revenue of $13.5 million in 2020 It has about $21 million in cash. It's an interesting alternative since it is already shipping EVs, has revenue, and also has a lower market cap of less than $1 billion. Since it did a traditional IPO, it hasn't published longer-term financial forecasts.\nArrival (CIIC)\nArrival was founded in 2015 in London to make a variety of commercial electric vehicles. It has approximately 1,200 employees across 11 cities in 8 countries. In November 2020, Arrival and the SPAC CIIG entered into a business combination agreement with an implied valuation of $5.39 billion.\nArrival plans on releasing four commercial EVs over the next few years.\n<ul>\n <li>Q4/2021: An electric bus for 8-125 passengers and a range of 240-400km</li>\n <li>Q3/2022: An electric delivery van with a payload of 975-2,000kg and a range of 150-340km</li>\n <li>2022: A larger electric van with a payload of 4,000 kg and a range of 190-400km</li>\n <li>2023: a small vehicle platform with a range of 100-300km.</li>\n</ul>\nThis mix provides a nice diversified portfolio of EVs. Arrival claims to have received orders from UPS for 10,000 vans. It plans a unique flexible manufacturing approach using micro-factories with each projected to manufacture 10,000 vans per year. All of its vehicles use a modular skateboard electric platform.\nArrival ambitiously projects $14.1 billion in revenue in 2024. Half of that revenue is expected from delivery vans, 22% from buses, and the rest from the large van and its small vehicle platform. With CIIC's stock price at $24.80 per share, Arrival's current market cap is relatively high at approximately $15.0 billion. Justifying its market cap depends on its ability to release, sell, and produce its four commercial EVs.\nProterra (ACTC)\nProterra is a commercial electric vehicle company with over a decade of production experience. The Company has designed an end-to-end, flexible technology platform that claims to deliver higher performance and a low total cost of ownership to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end customers.\nProterra, Inc., was originally founded in Golden, Colorado, by Dale Hill in 2004. Later the company wanted to take the lead in creating zero-emission, U.S.-based transit buses. In 2010 it moved its manufacturing plant from Golden, Colorado to Greenville, South Carolina. In 2015, Proterra was awarded a $3 million grant from the California Energy Commission to fund the design, development, and construction of the company's battery-electric transit bus manufacturing line in the City of Industry, California. It moved its headquarters from Greenville, South Carolina, to Burlingame, California, in October 2015. Proterra raised more than $600 million in funding.\nIt is going public through the SPAC ArcLight (ACTC) with a pro forma valuation of $1.6 billion. Upon completion of the transaction, Proterra expects to have up to $825 million in cash to fund growth initiatives, including R&amp;D and the expansion of its next-generation battery program.\nProterra has three complementary businesses:\n<ul>\n <li>Proterra Powered: Delivering battery systems and electrification solutions to commercial vehicle manufacturers</li>\n <li>Proterra Transit:Providing an electric transit bus OEMs</li>\n <li>Proterra Energy:Offering turnkey charging and energy management solutions.</li>\n</ul>\nThe company's battery systems have been proven in more than 16 million service miles driven by its fleet of transit vehicles and validated through partnerships with commercial vehicle OEMs. Proterra has produced and delivered more than 300 megawatt-hours of battery systems, more than 550 heavy-duty electric transit buses, and installed 54 megawatts of charging systems.\nProterra expected $193 million of revenue in 2020, with an estimated $750 million in existing orders and backlog. It projects $2.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with about 1/3 coming from its Transit business, and 2/3 From Powered &amp; Energy. At ACTC's current stock price of $17.85, Proterra has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nRivian\nRivian (see earlier description in consumer retail) will also compete in the commercial delivery market. It has been working with Amazon (a major investor) to build large electric delivery vans for Prime. Developed specifically for Amazon, a small fleet of Prime vans is on the road now, testing deliveries to customers and gathering feedback. In late fall, it could grow to a large fleet as Rivian ramps up the volume.\nThe EV range of 150 miles is tailored to Amazon's use cycle to optimize the size, weight, and cost of the commercial vehicle. Rivian has three sizes of batteries, but Amazon is starting with just one of them.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nSee the previous summary under consumer retail EV.\nMedium and Long-Haul Trucking EV Companies\nCompanies developing medium- and long-haul EV trucks face a more difficult challenge with battery range. These trucks haul much more weight than commercial delivery vehicles and because they are designed for long distances, they can't stop every 200-300 miles for recharging.\nFor this reason, many of these companies are using unique hybrid technologies for their trucks. The EV trucks in this category are primarily heavy-duty but also include some medium-duty trucks and specialty vehicles. A couple of the companies focus on retrofitting trucks to be electric.\nMedium-Duty Trucks\nThe medium-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 4, 5, and 6:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 6: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 19,501-26,000 pounds or 8,846-11,793 kilograms.1</li>\n</ul>\nHeavy-Duty Trucks\nThe heavy-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 7 and 8:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 7: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 26,001 to 33,000 pounds or 11,794-14,969 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 8: This class of trucks has a GVWR of greater than 33,001 pounds or 14,969 kilograms and includes all tractor-trailers.</li>\n</ul>\nThe Tesla Semi is a battery vehicle planned for a range of 300 or 500 miles and a speed of 60 MPH with 80,000 lbs of cargo. Tesla plans to start shipping the Semi later this year when it expects to have sufficient cell volume to meet its needs with the production of its 4680 battery pack.\nNikola(NASDAQ:NKLA)\nNikola has been a very controversial company. Founded in 2015, it originally had two different strategies. Its primary strategy is to lease fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) Class-8 heavy trucks and provide the refueling infrastructure to corporate customers. Its second strategy was to develop the Badger EV truck using GM technology.\nNikola originally merged with a SPAC to go public, at an enterprise value of approximately $3.3 billion. On June 6th, 2020, its market cap jumped to more than $30 billion, then later it dropped because of problems with its originally planned deal with GM.\nNikola originally expected a deal with General Motors that included the production of the Nikola Badger EV pickup truck. The proposed arrangement was that GM would take a $2 billion equity stake in Nikola and in return would engineer and produce the Badger. In November 2020, GM and Nikola scrapped the original arrangement. Now it appears that GM will supply Nikola with only its Hydrotec hydrogen fuel-cell technology to integrate into the EV manufacturer's commercial class 7 and class 8 zero-emission semi-trucks. So, the Badger is probably dead.\nNikola now sees semi-trucks as the company's \"core business\" and fuel cells as an increasingly important segment of the semi-truck market thanks to their efficiency in weight and consumption. It expects to begin testing by the end of 2021.\nIt has received pre-orders from Anheuser-Busch and a few other companies, but it doesn't expect deliveries until 2023. Hydrogen fueling stations are key to its strategy, both providing a source of revenue and necessary fueling infrastructure for the trucks to operate, but they also cost a lot. In its March 2020 investor deck, Nikola said a single station capable of fueling 210 trucks a day would cost $16.6 million. Its initial planned network of 700 stations would cost roughly $11.6 billion.\nNikola was also accused of misrepresentation, and its executive chairman and founder stepped down.\nAt the time of the SPAC merger, it projected an optimistic forecast of more than $3 billion in revenue by 2024, with a net income of $145 million. Most of that revenue was expected to come from its Badger truck, which is no longer in the plans. Yet its market cap is still almost $6 billion.\nHyliion (HYLN)\nHyliion, founded in 2015 in Austin, went public in October 2020 through the SPAC Tortoise Acquisition Corp. (SHLL). In March 2019, automotive parts manufacturer Dana Inc. made an equity investment into Hyliion, and together they are manufacturing and marketing Class 8 EVs to Dana's customers, including Volvo, Navistar, and Peterbilt.\nHyliion's strategy is unique, and a very different strategy from Nikola. Essentially it generates electricity onboard the truck using compressed natural gas (CNG). This should be a benefit for longer-range trucking. Hyliion's Hypertruck concept involves an all-electric drivetrain utilizing Dana's electric motor, inverter, and axle technologies. The truck's batteries are fueled by onboard tanks of CNG. With some 700 CNG stations already operating nationwide, it believes that there no need to build out expensive superchargers or hydrogen infrastructure.\nKuwait-based logistics company, Agility, has already placed an order for 1,000 Hypertrucks with initial deliveries targeted in 2022. Combined with a fully electric drivetrain and a natural gas-powered onboard generator to recharge the battery, the Hypertruck ERX will provide more than 1,000 miles of range.\nHyliion will eventually compete with Nikola (FCEV) and the Tesla battery-based Semi, but it plans to have a longer range and lower operating costs. Its HyperTruck ERX is expected to be available in 2021. It also has a hybrid-electric truck.\nThe combination with SHLL had an estimated market cap of about $1.5 billion, with approximately $530 million going to the company, including a $325 million fully committed PIPE. At approximately $13.50 per share, its current market cap is approximately $2.2 billion, significantly down from its peak. Hyliion projects $2 billion in revenue in 2024, which it claims is only about 2% of the addressable market.\nXL Fleet (XL)\nXL Fleet is a 10-year old company that went public through the SPAC Pivotal. XL is different because it provides fleet electrification modifications for ICE trucks across a wide range of vehicle classes (class 2-5) and types. It has over 200 of the largest commercial and municipal fleets as customers, with more than 3,200 XL systems deployed and over 130 million miles driven by customers to date. XL's customer base includes FedEx, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Verizon, the City of Boston, Seattle Fire Department, Yale University, and Harvard University.\nXL's business model is essentially retrofitting existing trucks to be hybrids and then later expanding into fully electric truck conversions. It claims to be creating a fully integrated platform for this. It remains to be seen if the retrofitting business will continue to grow or will it diminish when more trucks are designed and manufactured with EV capabilities.\nUnlike some other EV companies that have no revenue yet because they are still developing products, XL is more of a small company doing low-volume retrofits. It had $7.2 million in revenue in 2019, $21 million in 2020, and estimates $76 million in 2021, but it forecasts $1.3 billion in revenue in 2024 in its investor presentation. It plans to do this by expanding its product line from hybrid to plug-in hybrid to fully electric across a broader range of trucks. It claims to have a $220 million sales pipeline for the next 12 months.\nShort-seller, Muddy Waters, claimed after talking to former XL Fleet employees, that it believed the company significantly exaggerated its order backlog, that the return on investment for the company's products was likely negative, and that it would not be able to compete with big car makers on electrification. The company thoroughly refuted these claims.\nThe original enterprise valuation was approximately $1.4 billion at a $10 share price for the merger. Its price jumped by about 35% but has since gone back down to $12.40 for a market cap of about $1.8 billion. Although XL Fleet has revenue and other EV companies don't, this may not be an advantage. It appears to be a small company for many years that has gone public at a high valuation with grand plans. The risks are in its ability to make a jump from $76 million in 2021 to $1.3 billion in 2024, as well as the question about retrofitting being replaced by new EV trucks by then.\nXos (NGAC)\nXos Trucks specializes in the field of manufacturing fully electric commercial vehicles. It features a software platform that is designed to accommodate an extensive variety of medium-duty bodies, wheelbase, and range requirements up to 200 miles. It was founded in 2016 and headquartered in North Hollywood, California. It received $20 million of investment in 2020 and now is going public through a merger with the SPAC ExtGen Acquisition Corporation (NGAC) at an estimated proforma value of $1.965 billion.\nIts focus is on medium- and heavy-duty last mile and return-to-base segments (class 5/6, class 6/7, and class 7/8) commercial fleets and specialty vehicles. Some vehicles are currently in production and in regular on-road operations with key fleet customers, and it claimed 6,000 unit orders in backlog.\nIts MD-platform is for classes 5-6 for pickup and delivery. Its HD X-Platform is an adaptable chassis for highway, vocational, and severe work conditions. Its market is for customers with highly predictable routes that allow for batteries designed for a more limited range. A significantly larger frame and smaller battery pack allow for reduced density.\nXos has a bundled all-in-one offering that allows fleets to access all the tools and services they need to go electric with a single point of contact at a fixed monthly expense.\nXos had $3 million in revenue in 2020 and estimates $14 million in 2021. However, it forecasts $5.2 billion in revenue in 2025. At the current stock price of $10.30, its market cap is approximately $2 billion, about the same as its original SPAC transaction.\nLion Electric (NGA)\nLion Electric is a Canadian company founded by Marc Bédard in 2008. Its focus is to be a leader in designing, developing, and manufacturing purpose-built urban electric vehicles; vehicles that are specifically designed as delivery trucks, refuse trucks, bucket trucks, moving trucks, school buses, and shuttle buses. It has over 300 all-electric vehicles on the road today.\nIn November 2020, it announced that it was going public through the SPAC NGA. The transaction had an estimated pro forma enterprise value of $1.5 billion.\nIt plans on seven new truck models and one new school bus, for a total of 15 all-electric vehicles, representing a full line-up from class 5 to class 8 electric trucks and a full line-up of electric school buses. Its vehicles are produced at its existing manufacturing plant, which has the capacity for the production of up to 2,500 vehicles per year. It intends to open a new plant in the U.S. capable of delivering over 20,000 Lion trucks and buses per year by 2022.\nIts all-electric class 6 and class 8 commercial urban trucks combine power, comfort, and modern technology. Custom-built chassis and cabin designed specifically for an all-electric heavy-duty vehicle. The LionC is an all-electric Type C school bus manufactured in North America. The body and chassis were specifically designed to deliver optimal performance. The LionM is an all-electric midi/minibus that meets paratransit and public transportation requirements. Created and designed specifically for the paratransit market, the is spacious and offers unique features that provide enhanced security and accessibility to the end-users.\nLion Electric had $29 million in revenue in 2020 and expects $204 million in 2021. It forecasts revenue to jump to $3.6 billion a few years later in 2024. Its current market cap is approximately $3.6 billion based on its current stock price of $18.33.\nLightning eMotors (GIK)\nLightning eMotors, formerly Lightning Systems, was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Loveland, Colorado. It provides fleet electrification for familiar commercial vehicle platforms by retrofitting them with its electric powertrains. Lightning eMotors produces electric fleet medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including delivery trucks, shuttle buses, passenger vans, ambulances, bucket trucks, chassis-cab models, and city transit buses. It focuses on urban commercial zero-emission vehicles with a full range of class 3 through class 7 battery-electric and fuel-cell electric vehicles.\nLighting eMotors helps commercial fleets achieve their sustainability goals by offering zero-emission battery-electric vans, trucks, and buses based on familiar, proven vehicles from manufacturers such as Ford and GM. It works with customers, to help them identify their unique commercial electric vehicle, charging, and grant support needs.\nThe Lightning products include integrated all-electric powertrains for the Ford Transit 350HD passenger and cargo vans, Ford E-450 shuttle bus and cutaway models, Ford F-59 step/food van, Ford F-550 cargo trucks and buses, Chevrolet 6500XD Low Cab Forward model, and 30-foot, 35-foot, and 40-foot transit buses.\nLightning has 120 vehicles on the road, and 1,500 vehicles already on order from customers. In addition to making vehicles and powertrains, Lightning also provides a full suite of charging solutions for customers.\nThe deal with GIK has an enterprise value of $650 million, although there is also an Earnout of 20.0% of total pro forma shares outstanding to Lightning eMotors shareholders if the stock crosses certain price thresholds.\nAt the current price, of $11.73, GIK has a market cap of approximately $1 billion, a little more than the original transaction valuation. Similar to XL Fleet, Lightning has the risk that retrofitting may only be an interim business opportunity until more EV trucks are produced.\nPublic Chinese EV Companies\nChina will be the biggest EV market opportunity, and EV start-ups may do better there because there isn't as much entrenched competition from domestic auto companies. China is already the largest EV market in the world, with almost a million EVs sold in 2019. Its EV market represents almost half of the global EV sales volume and is much larger than the U.S. market.\nThe Chinese government has ambitions to become a global leader in new energy vehicles. Soon after the coronavirus outbreak subsided within the country, Chinese authorities announced new policies to support the auto and electric vehicle industries.\nThese Chinese companies are traded through American depository shares (ADS) that contain certain risks. There are financial reporting and transparency risks with these companies, and on top of that, the newer companies are being classified as \"emerging growth\" companies that are already exempt from certain transparency requirements set out in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Like the previous EV stock, these stocks have also been very volatile.\nIn addition to legacy auto manufacturers like BYD, there are also three Chinese EV companies that are publicly traded through American depositary shares.\nBYD Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:BYDDY)\nBYD, which means build your dreams, is the automotive subsidiary of the Chinese multinational BYD Co Ltd. It was founded in January 2003, following BYD Company's acquisition of Tsinchuan Automobile Company. The company produces automobiles, buses, electric bicycles, forklifts, rechargeable batteries, and trucks. The current model range of automobiles includes electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and petrol-engined vehicles. Thirteen years ago, on the advice of his famously skeptical lieutenant, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett made a $232 million investment in BYD, a relatively unknown Chinese car company.\nBy parlaying BYD's rechargeable battery technology into a fast-growing carmaking operation, it gained a foothold in the fledgling electric vehicle market, building longer-lasting batteries and cheaper vehicles than American and Japanese manufacturers were managing to do at the time. In BYD, Buffett and Munger believed they had found a company with a shot at one day becoming the largest player in a global automobile market that was inevitably going electric.\nBYD's start to 2021 was strong with 19,871 plug-in electric cars sold in January in China, including hybrid plug-ins. That was a big increase over 2020 but not as much as 2019.\nLI Auto (LI)\nLixiang, formerly known as Chehejia (\"Car and Home\"), was founded in 2015 and went public in the U.S. on July 30th, 2020. It is a Beijing-based electric-vehicle startup with vertically integrated manufacturing. It designs, researches, manufactures, sells, and offers services featuring a few models of electric vehicles.\nThe company's SUVs are hybrids of a sort. They use electric motors (one on the front axle and one on the rear), but those motors are powered by a combination of a 40.5kWh battery packanda 1.2-liter turbocharged engine paired to a 45-liter fuel tank and a 100kW electric generator, which generates power for the battery pack in real-time. The idea is that the car can be driven for about 100 miles on battery power alone, but it has a total range of nearly 500 miles when leveraging the combustion engine generator.\nThe Company's primary product is an SUV under its brand Li ONE. It also sells peripheral products and provides related services, such as charging stalls, vehicle internet connection services, and extended lifetime warranties. Li Auto is looking to sell a variety of SUVs built on its hybrid technology that range from around $21,000 to about $70,000. The company started shipping its first model in late 2019. It's a midsize SUV is well-appointed and has lots of touchscreens and technology. A full-size premium version is planned for release in 2022.\nDeliveries of Li ONEs were 14,464 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a 67.0% quarter-over-quarter increase and setting a new quarterly record. Deliveries for the full year 2020 reached 32,624 vehicles. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $635 million.\nLI auto went public on July 30th, 2020, raising $1.1 billion at an initial price of $15.50 per share but quickly reached almost $24. It is currently valued at approximately $37 billion at a price of approximately $25.72 per share.\nXPeng (XPEV)\nXiaopeng (XPeng) Motors is a Chinese electric vehicle and technology company that designs and manufactures smart cars. It was founded in 2015 and went public on August 27, 2020, using American depository shares, raising about $1 billion. To date, it has raised about $2.6 billion.\nXPeng aims its EVs at technology-savvy middle-class Chinese consumers, with prices ranging from $22,000 to $45,000 after government subsidies. In some ways, it is a Tesla knock-off at a much lower price. XPeng started production of the G3 in November 2018, and as of July 31, 2020, delivered 18,741. It started production of the P7 and began delivery in May 2020, and as of July 31, 2020, it had delivered 1,966 EVs. The P7 has a range of more than 400 miles. It plans to launch a third Smart EV, a sedan, in 2021. The G3 was among the top-three best-selling electric SUVs in China in 2019.\nXPeng is interesting because it has a platform strategy and is moving aggressively into autonomous driving. It uses a platform strategy to expand product offerings by launching one Smart EV model each year to broaden the addressable market. It builds new models on two highly flexible Smart EV platforms, called David and Edward, respectively. The David platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,600 millimeters to 2,800 millimeters, and the Edward platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,800 millimeters to 3,100 millimeters. It also adopted a platform approach for software systems.\nXPeng claims to be developing an autonomous driving capability for its EVs. The P7 is the first production vehicle to feature the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Xavier system-on-a-chip (SoC) autonomous driving platform. The company's Smart Electric Platform Architecture (SEPA) runs on 2 chips - NVIDIA for the XPILOT and Qualcomm's Snapdragon™ 820A for intelligent services and infotainment, including cameras inside and outside, radars, HD-map, and ultrasonic sensors. Like Tesla, it claims it can create sufficiently-autonomous driving without lidar.\nTo enhance brand recognition and allow more people to experience its Smart EVs, it deployed a small number of Smart EVs in a ride-hailing service in Guangzhou on a trial basis, but it has no current plan to scale up a ride-hailing service.\nXpeng sees first-quarter 2021 deliveries rising 450% year-over-year to 12,500 vehicles. Revenues are expected to increase 533% from a year ago. The company didn't provide bottom-line estimates for the quarter, but will likely post another net loss as it ramps up manufacturing, invests in R&amp;D, and builds out a new manufacturing plant set to open in 2022.\nXpeng reported selling 12,964 vehicles in Q4 2020, up 303% from a year ago. It delivered a total of 27,041 vehicles in 2020, up 112%. It makes the P7 sedan, a rival to the made-in-China Tesla Model 3, and the small G3 SUV.\nThe stock opened on August 27, 2020 at a price of $15 and a valuation of $11 billion, but its stock jumped more than 40% shortly after. Its current valuation is about $35 billion at a stock price of approximately $36.13 per share. It had about $300 million in revenue in 2019 with a loss of about $500 million.\nNio (NIO)\nUnlike previous companies, Nio has been a public company for some time. It originally went public in the U.S. back in September of 2018, selling IPO shares at $6.26 and raising $1 billion.\nNio's IPO was far from smooth. After going public at $6.26 per share, it traded down to nearly $1. Then in the middle of the coronavirus outbreak, Nio received a much-needed investment of $1 billion from investors, including state-backed entities.\nNio designs, jointly manufactures, and sells smart and connected premium electric vehicles, attempting to develop next-generation technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving, and artificial intelligence. Joint manufacturing means that it uses a state-owned contract manufacturer to build its cars.\nNio plans to provide customers with comprehensive, convenient, and innovative charging solutions and other user-centric services. It began deliveries of the ES8, a 7-seater high-performance premium electric SUV in China in June 2018, and its variant, the six-seater ES8, in March 2019. Nio officially launched the ES6, a 5-seater high-performance premium electric SUV, in December 2018 and began deliveries in June 2019. It officially launched the EC6, a 5-seater smart premium electric Coupe SUV, in December 2019 with deliveries in 2020.\nNio sold 17,353 EVs in Q4/2020 and 43,728 for the year. It warned a shortage in chips and batteries will force a production slowdown to 7,500 a month in Q2 from 10,000 vehicles a month in February.\nNio currently trades at more than $43 per share, including a big jump recently, for a valuation of approximately $48 billion. It had revenue of $2.3 billion in 2019 for a loss of $3.8 billion.\nSummary\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this should provide exciting new investment opportunities. However, the investment terrain is complex. There are dozens of new start-ups where the public can now invest that were previously exclusively venture capital investment opportunities. Many of these are following different roads to success. There are legacy auto manufacturers that could prosper or get destroyed in this transition. There are some exciting new EV company opportunities in China. And then there is Tesla.\nThis EV roadmap is intended to help investors explore different roads to investment by explaining the basic strategies for these EV companies. These roads can have different opportunities and risks, and the roadmap helps to frame these. Above all, valuation is an overriding risk that is highlighted throughout this article.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>New Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNew Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-19 14:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.\nLast October, I wrote a popular article providing...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车","01211":"比亚迪股份","NKLA":"Nikola Corporation","LI":"理想汽车","GP":"GreenPower Motor Company Inc.","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","GOEV":"Canoo Inc.","WKHS":"Workhorse Group, Inc.","F":"福特汽车","002594":"比亚迪","TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来","FSR":"菲斯克","HYLN":"Hyliion Holdings Corp."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1196402560","content_text":"Summary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.\nLast October, I wrote a popular article providing a roadmap for investing in electric vehicles, but since then, so much has changed: new entrants, new strategies, fluctuating valuations, etc.\nSo, I updated and greatly expanded the previous EV investment roadmap.\nThis update includes a deeper look at valuations for 23 EV companies with revenue projections, when available.\nIt also classifies these EV companies into their primary market categories and summarizes their different strategies.\n\nPhoto by Sven Loeffler/iStock via Getty Images\nMy article Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap published five months ago, was popular, and some followers have requested an update. Many new EV companies entered the market, most of them through SPACs. Valuations fluctuated wildly, and there has been a great deal of publicity around these companies.\nThis new updated EV investment roadmap is greatly expanded. In addition to updating the strategies and progress of companies previously discussed, I expanded the number of companies covered. This article also groups EV companies into their primary markets, enabling better comparisons and evaluation of market opportunities. In addition, it includes a comparative valuation chart showing every company's market cap with a comparison to projected revenue, where possible. This takes advantage (good or bad) of looking at the long-term revenue forecasts provided in SPAC mergers that public companies can't make.\nIn addition to the EV manufacturers discussed here, there are also EV investment opportunities in charging station companies, battery manufacturers, and battery materials companies. These were covered in the original roadmap and may also be updated in a later article.\nApproximately 2 million EVs were sold in 2019, and although the number declined along with all auto sales in 2020, it is forecasted to increase in 2021 and reach 8-10 million by 2025. Some forecast that EV sales will be greater than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2030, or even earlier. The automobile market appears to be moving toward a historical transformation, and exceptional investment gains can be made by anticipating new emerging industries and investing in the eventual winners of those new industries. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)are obvious examples. Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to create a new emerging industry.\nThere are also significant risks. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to be released in the next three years, which will drive rapid growth in EV sales. However, the expected sales from these new models, as well as the increasing expectations from Tesla, most likely exceed the total projected market. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the companies covered here won't exist five years from now. It reminds me of the internet bubble of the late 1990s when scores of internet-based companies went public with little or no revenue. Almost all of these failed within three years -- however, a couple, including Amazon, went on to enormous success.\nEVs provide a major new investment opportunity with high risks. To succeed, you need to have a clear EV investment roadmap.\nSo, how can you invest in this new emerging market? The EV landscape is complex and investment opportunities are varied. While Tesla is the unquestioned leader in EVs, some consider it overvalued and unlikely to show exceptional returns to new investors. The current U.S. legacy automakers are committed to introducing many new EVs in the next few years, and they have some entrenched advantages with volume manufacturing capabilities, a dealer infrastructure, and loyal customers. There are exciting new EV start-ups in the U.S. that have come public this year, mostly through Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), and there are several interesting publicly traded Chinese EV manufacturers.\nThis new roadmap for EV investment classifies companies into three primary markets segments:\n\nTheConsumer Retailsegment includes EVs sold to consumers individually, such as SUVs, pickup trucks, sedans, etc.\nTheCommercial Deliverysegment includes local delivery EV vans and trucks sold to fleets.\nTheMedium- and Long-Haul Truckingsegment includes heavier Class 4 - Class 8 trucks, as well as special industrial vehicles.\n\nIn addition, it categorizesLegacy ManufacturersandChinese EV Companies. This enables investors to evaluate investment opportunities by considering unique opportunities within each market segment.\nThere is an enormous amount of investment optimism for EVs, and retail investors have been aggressively buying into EV stocks with seemingly no regard for valuation. Then there is the additional challenge of valuing companies with no revenue, especially those coming public through SPACs. So, valuation is an important investment consideration.\nSo let's start by looking at an overview of comparative EV valuations.\nEV Investment Valuation Overview\nThe following chart summarizes valuations for 23 EV companies, including several legacy companies. For SPACs, market cap estimates are computed using the pro forma number of shares at closing, otherwise using the valuation of the SPAC prior to closing drastically underestimates the valuation, which may be misleading to novice investors. Price/Sales ratios (market cap divided by revenue) are used to compare valuations. As a benchmark, current P/S ratios vary. For example, auto and truck companies have a ratio of 2.7X. Software companies have the highest ratios of over 10X.\nIn the chart, companies that currently have revenue show current P/S ratios. Where projections are available, projected P/S ratios are computed. A note of caution, however. Many of the EV companies came public through SPACs and published their projections (which public companies cannot do), and many of these are likely to prove unrealistic.\nAll of the longer-term revenue projections come from the company (C) forecasts with a SPAC. Some of these may turn out to be accurate, not many are most likely unrealistic. Some, like Lucid, Faraday, and Arrival forecast hitting more than $10 billion in revenue in a few years, when it took Tesla more than 10. Things are different now and they might achieve these, but they could also find that it will take longer to complete development, ramp up production, and create enough customer demand. Many companies may also find that there will be significant capital requirements to achieve this type of growth, and shareholders will be diluted.\n\nTesla, the \"gold standard\" in EVs, has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, which many people believe is overvalued. Its market cap is approximately 20X 2020 revenue and 10X estimated 2022 revenue.\nTesla (TSLA)\nIn the U.S., and to a lesser extent in China, Tesla is the dominant EV provider. It has approximately 60% of the U.S. EV market and about 20% of the market in China. I own a Tesla and love it, but an investment in Tesla stock requires getting comfortable with its valuation. Tesla has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, although declining lately, which some consider still overvalued while others see upside potential.\nThe investment opportunity with Tesla is based on the expectation that it will continue to dominate the EV market, or at least maintain significant market share, despite much greater competition from the expected introduction of hundreds of new EV models in the next few years.\nThere is a great deal already published about Tesla, so I'll move on.\nLegacy Automakers\nSome people think that the legacy automakers will simply fade away. Historically, that was the case in some other industries, but it is not going to happen to most automakers. They are not standing still waiting to become obsolete. Most have aggressive strategies to replace ICE vehicles with EVs. GM plans to invest $27 billion and build and launch as many as 30 new EV models by 2025. Ford plans to invest $29 billion in EVs by 2025 and launch as many as 16 EVs in the next two years. Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY)has also committed billions to develop new EVs.\nThe competitive advantage that legacy automakers have in selling their new EVs is their dealer network. Will new EV customers prefer to continue going to their regular auto dealer to buy their new EV?\nAlmost all legacy automakers worldwide are developing and launching EVs including Volkswagen, Peugeot, Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi, Hyundai/Kia. Let's look a little more closely at GM and Ford as the leaders in the U.S.\nGeneral Motors (GM)\nGM has committed to introducing 20 new electric vehicles by 2023, including EVs across Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC, and Buick. It recently announced that it has already sold out the first-year production of its Hummer electric pickup. By mid-decade, it expects to sell a million EVs per year in its two largest markets: North America and China. As a reference point, Tesla reported deliveries of 367,500 vehicles globally in 2019.\nGM has a solid platform strategy for its EVs. It plans on building its EVs using five interchangeable drive units and three different motors from its Ultium Drive System platform. Ultium energy options range from 50 to 200 kWh, which could enable an estimated range of up to 400 miles. Most of its EVs will have 400-volt battery packs and up to 200 kW fast-charging capability while the truck platform will have 800-volt battery packs and 350 kW fast-charging capabilities.\nThe key building blocks of the Ultium battery system are large-scale, high-energy cells. Engineered in partnership with LG Energy Solutions, they use both advanced chemistry and a smart cell design that's optimized for a broad portfolio of EVs. GM engineers and scientists are actively researching and testing new elements in battery chemistry to lower costs and improve charge times. Ultium can contain either vertically- or horizontally-stacked cells to integrate into vehicle design: vertically for trucks, SUVs, and crossovers, or horizontally for cars and performance vehicles. As new chemistry is developed and becomes available, the battery management system could digitally update the modules.\nGM also has other EV opportunities with its BrightDrop commercial EV service and its Cruise subsidiary. BrightDrop will not just sell delivery EVs, it will provide an entire service platform for commercial delivery customers. Its set of electric delivery vehicles starts with the EV600 and includes the BrightDrop EP1, a pod-like electric pallet. SeeGeneral Motors' Aggressive EV/AV Strategies May Payoff Big.\nWith its highest stock price of $61.65, GM's current market cap is approximately $89 billion, increasing primarily because of its progress with EVs. This approximately 3X valuation in 2018, but still only 13% of Tesla.\nFord (F)\nFord is also investing heavily in EVs. It just introduced the Mustang Mach-E, a battery-powered crossover with sports car styling, and plans to introduce an all-electric version of its best-selling F-150 pickup later this year. Also, planned is an electric edition of the full-size Transit van, which has been popular in the commercial delivery market. Ford has confirmed plans to build a luxury Lincoln crossover on a battery-powered platform provided by Rivian. The automaker also plans to introduce two new midsize electric crossovers, one each for the Ford and Lincoln brands by 2023.\nMustang Mach-E. Source: Ford\nFord's market cap is approximately $51 billion, twice its previous market cap, and also increasing.\nConsumer Retail EV Companies\nThe consumer retail market has some unique characteristics for new EV companies. Sales are made individually, not in fleets. This diversifies the risk upon launch because only a sufficient number of customers need to be attracted to the new EV. A wave of popularity can provide terrific momentum.\nHowever, the lack of a dealer network can be an impediment. Selling EVs directly to consumers instead of through dealers is prohibited in most states. By law, auto manufacturers can't compete with franchised dealers. These are laws that go back many decades to protect dealers. This can be a major impediment for new companies without established independent dealer franchises. So, new AV companies. like Tesla, need to sell their vehicles online. Tesla has successfully done this, but it took a lot of work and time. Lack of a dealer network also creates impediments in service.\nIn addition, over the next 4-5 years, autonomous capabilities will be increasingly important to luxury vehicles. This may prove to be a challenge to start-up EV companies because they can't afford to develop this technology.\nLet's look closer at the alternative consumer retail EV investments.\nLucid Motors (CCIV)\nLucid was founded in 2007 under the name Atieva and originally focused on building electric vehicle batteries and powertrains for other vehicle manufacturers. The company rebranded itself as Lucid Motors in October 2016 and shifted its strategy to develop an all-electric, high-performance, luxury vehicle. Shortly after that, it encountered financial difficulties and struggled to get short-term funding. In 2018 it raised more than $1 billion in investment, primarily from Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund, and gave up a majority of the company.\nLucid Motors reached an agreement to become a publicly-traded company through a merger with the SPAC Churchill Capital IV Corp., in one of the largest deals SPAC EV deals. The combined company, in which Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund will continue to be the largest shareholder, had a transaction equity value of $11.75 billion (for $10/share). At the same time, it closed a PIPE investment priced at $15 a share, giving it an implied pro forma equity value of $24 billion. Rumors about this deal circulated before the transaction was formally announced, making it one of the most anticipated SPAC deals. The hype and speculation drove up the stock price of Churchill Capital IV Corp. from its opening price of $10 a share to almost $60. I believe that some of this may have been driven by novice SPAC investors who didn't realize that the valuation of CCIV didn't include the eventual valuation of Lucid. The share price dropped more than 30% after the details of the deal were announced. It's also likely that Lucid renegotiated the terms of the merger based on the price jump.\nThe company's first product is the Lucid Air, a well-equipped luxury electric vehicle that features 406 miles of projected range and 480 horsepower with a starting price of $77,400, or $69,900 after the U.S. Federal Tax Credit of $7,500. This new Lucid Air model is positioned as a high-performance, ultra-efficient luxury EV sedan in a line of future vehicles that are expected to include Lucid Air Touring, Grand Touring, and Dream Edition versions.\nThe company plans to begin production and deliveries of the Lucid Air in North America in the second half of 2021. Previously the company aimed to begin deliveries earlier in 2021. It intends to sell the car in Europe in 2022, followed by China in 2023. Lucid vehicles will be produced at its new factory in Casa Grande, Arizona. The company plans to expand the factory in phases in the coming years to have the capacity to produce 365,000 units per year at scale. The initial phase of the $700 million factory construction was completed late last year and will have the capacity to produce 30,000 vehicles a year.\nLucid also apparently has a commitment to build an assembly plant in Saudi Arabia, which was rumored to be a condition of the $1 billion investment from the Saudi public fund. The Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund also provided $600 million in bridge financing and invested in the SPAC deal as well. So, while this assembly plant may be expensive and may not be critical, it will most likely need to happen.\nLucid has ambitious plans to achieve $14 billion in revenue in 2025, and its current stock price at $29.17, which gives it a market cap of more than $46 billion, may already reflect those ambitions. Its market cap is roughly the same as Ford.\nFisker (FSR)\nFisker, which had its origins with Fisker Automotive, is an interesting story that ended in bankruptcy. Henrik Fisker originally co-founded Fisker Automotive in 2007. He was responsible for designing many premium cars such as the Aston Martin. Subsequently, Fisker Automotive had to deal with a Tesla lawsuit against Fisker Automotive alleging it stole Tesla's technology, a controversial $528.7 million conditional loan from the Department of Energy, a recall of its battery produced by A123, and the loss of several hundred vehicles in hurricane Sandy. Henrik Fisker resigned in March 2013 because of disagreements over business strategy and in November 2013, Fisker filed its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case.\nHowever, Henrik Fisker retained the Fisker brand and trademarks, and in 2016 he started another electric vehicle company named Fisker Inc. with the Fisker brand and trademarks. In 2019, Fisker shifted from developing a sports car with a solid-state battery to the Ocean SUV featuring a lithium-ion battery, which it later abandoned for a solid-state battery.\nFisker is positioning itself in a unique segment for those who want the most environmentally friendly EV. While this may be an early growth segment for EVs, it's difficult to estimate its eventual competitive advantage and the size of this environmentally-friendly market segment.\nThe Ocean is a crossover made of recycled metal and plastic with an expected base price of $37,499, and an expected lease of less than $400 a month. Fisker's plan is essentially a lease-only business model that lets customers keep a vehicle for years or return it at any time. It aims to source motors, batteries, and other components from technical partnerships with automakers and will outsource production from existing auto plants. Fisker is currently taking reservations at $250 for the Ocean. It also announced an agreement with Foxconn to jointly develop a vehicle pioneering a new market segment to be sold globally under the Fisker brand commencing in Q4 2023. at the end of 2022. Production will start at Magna Steyr's manufacturing facilities in Europe. At the end of February 2021, it had 12,467 cancellable reservations.\nFisker Ocean. Source: Fisker\nFisker went public using a SPAC (Spartan Energy). The original combination with SPAQ in October 2020 was valued at $2.9 billion with a cash investment of approximately $1 billion. The stock currently trades at approximately $21 per share, after reaching a high of $28.50, from the original price of $10, which is a market cap of $4.6 billion. Fisker projects $3.3 billion in revenue in 2023. It had almost $1 billion in cash at the end of 2020 and expected to use almost half of this in 2021: $250 million on operating expenses and $250 million in capital investments. If the Ocean is delayed into 2023, Fisker risks missing its revenue objective and will potentially need additional cash to complete development and launch.\nFaraday Future (PSAC)\nFaraday Future was originally established in May 2014 by Chinese businessman Jia Yueting. It is headquartered in Los Angeles and has offices in Silicon Valley, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu. Faraday Future also had a turbulent history. In 2016, it struggled financially, and in 2017 some key executives departed over a dispute about financial issues. They later founded Canoo.\nIn December 2018 the company announced layoffs due to a cash crunch and financial troubles. The company's founder Jia Yueting filed for personal bankruptcy in the United States' federal court in Delaware on October 14, 2019. Following Jia's personal bankruptcy, he decided to step down from his role as CEO of Faraday Future in order to assume a new position as the Chief Product and User Officer. He was replaced as CEO by Carsten Breitfeld, the former CEO at rival electric vehicle startup Byton.\nSomehow, Faraday was able to raise $2.3 billion in private funding over 5 rounds from a variety of investors. In early 2018, it received $1.5 billion in funding from an undisclosed investor from Hong Kong.\nFaraday's flagship product offering will be the FF 91, featuring 1,050 HP, 0-60 mph in less than 2.4 seconds, zero gravity seats with the largest 60-degree reclining angles, and a user experience designed to create a mobile, connected, and luxurious living space. The FF 91 is targeted to launch in 2022.\nFF 91. Source: Faraday Future\nIts strategic partners include one of China's top three OEMs and a critical Chinese city, which the company believes will help establish its presence in the Chinese vehicle market.\nFaraday Future plans several cars based on its Variable Platform Architecture. FF 91 is the first production vehicle and flagship model. Pricing will range between $120,000 and upwards of $200,000, which places it against formidable opponents. Faraday Future is already looking forward to expanding its range with a pair of smaller models named FF 81 and FF 71. The FF 81 is planned to be priced at $75,000 to 95,000 with a 2023 release. The FF 71 is planned to be priced at $45,000 to $65,000 with a planned release of 2024.\nThe Primary Manufacturing Facility for FF 91 is in Hanford, CA with contract manufacturing for future models in Gunsan, South Korea.\nFaraday Future is planning high-Level automation with a Level-3 capable system using a redundant safety architecture based on NVIDIA Xavier System-on-a-chip. It will be capable of highway auto-drive and hardware ready for advanced auto-drive. It is targeting full autonomous valet parking & summon in any parking lot or structure. Eventually, it expects full auto-drive, including full 360˚ sensor coverage for advanced auto-drive & auto-park features.\nIn January 2021, Faraday Future announced that the company would go public through a reverse merger with the special purpose acquisition company Property Solutions Acquisition Corp. (PSAC). The combined company will be valued at $3.4 billion. Faraday Future is expected to set up contract manufacturing operations in China through their partnership with Geely. Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn is also expected to serve as an additional strategic partner.\nFaraday Future projects $10.5 billion in revenue in 2024 and $21.5 billion in 2025. Revenue is expected to start in 2022 with the delivery of 2,400 vehicles for $504 million. Most likely these projections could prove to be optimistic. At a current stock price of approximately $12.80, it has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nLordstown Motors (RIDE)\nLordstown Motors based in Lordstown, Ohio, was originally founded in 2018 by Steve Burns, the former CEO of Workhorse Group. The company licensed technology from Workhorse in return for royalties and a 10% ownership. Lordstown is named after the famous GM Lordstown manufacturing plant, which it acquired in November 2019 in an unusual transaction. GM announced that it was closing the plant and was under a great deal of pressure for that decision. So, GM \"sold\" the plant to a company that was renamed Lordstown for an estimated $20 million that it loaned to the acquiring company. Subsequently, the sale was redefined to be part of a $75 million investment by GM, of which $50 million was an in-kind exchange for the plant.\nLordstown went public through the SPAC DiamondPeak Holdings Corp. in 2020. It currently has more than 400 employees.\nIts first product is the Lordstown Endurance, a full-sized EV pickup truck. Lordstown is positioning Endurance for the pickup fleet market segment. The expected price is $52,000+, and it claimed to have more than 100,000 pre-orders by January 2021. However, a recent research article published by a short seller claimed \"Our research has revealed that Lordstown's order book consists of fake or entirely non-binding orders, from customers that generally do not even have fleets of vehicles.\" Lordstown is disputing that article.\nIt believes the fleet pickup market segment is underserved with no current EV-focused competition. It estimates that the full-sized pick-up truck fleet market is 1.2 million vehicles per year in the U.S., but it's more fragmented than other truck fleets. Pickup \"fleets\" tend to be much smaller and local, so there may not be much of a market distinction for a small company buying several EV pickups from a traditional auto dealer. About half of the total U.S. pickup market is classified as fleet sales, meaning more than one.\nEven though Lordstown is targeting the commercial fleet market, it is a similar product to the Ford EV F-150. So I classify it in the consumer EV category. It is a class 2 vehicle. Lordstown also may enter the SUV market in the longer-term.\nThe Endurance will compete against future models from Rivian and Tesla, as well as Ford and GM in ICE pick-ups and their upcoming EV pick-ups. Ford plans on selling its EV F-150 in mid-2022. Initial production of the Endurance is expected in the second half of 2021, so it may have a short market advantage. Nevertheless, it forecasts selling 65,000 vehicles in 2023 and 107,000 in 2024. These estimates could be a large percentage of the EV pick-up market in those years.\nAt the SPAC merger, the implied valuation for Lordstown was $1.6 billion, including a $500 million PIPE and the $75 million by GM. Lordstown's financial projections appear to be aggressive. It projects to start shipping the Endurance in late 2021 with projected revenue in 2022 of $1.7 billion, increasing to $5.8 billion in 2024. Its stock price at approximately $13.60 values the company at a market cap of approximately $2.2 billion. The value of the company depends on the likelihood of achieving its projections.\nA fleet sales strategy makes sense for Lordstown since it would be too expensive to build a retail sales and service capability. However, it's not clear that this will become a distinct competitive advantage. Some small fleets may still prefer to buy their EV pickups from established local dealers with service capabilities.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nCanoo started as Evelozcity in 2017 and rebranded as Canoo in the spring of 2019. Canoo is a Los Angeles-based company that develops electric vehicles. It has over 350 employees. Canoo has designed a modular electric platform purpose-built to deliver maximum vehicle interior space, which is adaptable to support a wide range of vehicle applications for consumers and businesses. Canoo expects to launch its first consumer model in 2022, simply named the Canoo that will be available by subscription, followed shortly after by a multi-purpose delivery vehicle and a sports vehicle, each built off of the same underlying platform. Canoo went public using a SPAC (Hennessy Capital Acquisition) and now trades as GOEV.\nCanoo's all-electric skateboard-like platform is designed to support both consumer retail and commercial vehicle configurations. The EV leverages Canoo's flat skateboard architecture for a high level of usable interior space. Its commercial vehicle program, expected in 2023, addresses a projected $50B+ last-mile delivery market with an EV platform that maximizes cargo volume.\nHyundai Motor Group said it would jointly develop an electric vehicle platform with the company.\nCanoo's platform strategy is interesting. It could be used as an EV platform for custom fleets of delivery vehicles. It has no AV development, but it claims to be \"AV Ready\" which could be useful for AV companies wanting to build custom AV delivery fleets.\nIts all-electric multi-purpose delivery vehicle is expected to be priced starting at approximately $33,000. It is based on Canoo's proprietary electric platform and will be offered in two initial size variants, with others to follow. Limited availability will begin in 2022, with scaled production and launch planned for 2023. Customers can pre-order the multi-purpose delivery vehicle for a refundable deposit of $100 per vehicle\nIt plans to offer two multi-purpose delivery vehicles: the MPDV1 and the larger MPDV2. The first has a 200-foot cargo volume and a range of 130-200 miles. It offers more capacity than today's ICE delivery vehicles at an affordable price with urban mobility enabled by a space-efficient footprint. The vehicle is also designed to fit within many height-restricted areas like parking garages.\nThe MPDV2 has a cargo volume of 450 feet and a range of 90-190 miles. Its roof and step-in height enable individuals to easily walk-in the vehicle and accommodate a standing position while inside.\nThe original SPAC transaction provided approximately $600 million, with a pro forma equity value of approximately $2.4 billion. Like other SPAC mergers, its stock price has fluctuated. It currently trades at about $15.90 per share for a market cap of approximately $3.7 billion. Canoo projects $2.0 billion in revenue in 2025 from about $500 million in engineering services, $1.2 billion from its consumer vehicle subscriptions, and the remainder from its commercial program. Canoo expects revenue of more than $300 million in 2022 after the launch of its lifestyle consumer vehicle.\nSince its first products are aimed at consumers, as is most of its forecasted 2025 revenue, I categorize it primarily as a consumer EV company. However, I think the design of that Canoo vehicle may not attract enough customers. More importantly, its subscription service way of selling its EV to consumers is risky. I think it has more potential in the commercial market, however, a dual strategy (consumer and commercial) is challenging. I like its skateboard platform design and that could prove to be a competitive advantage.\nRivian\nAlthough not yet public, I include Rivian because it has plans for an IPO as soon as Sept 2021, although it could slip into 2022. There are rumors that the company is targeting a market valuation of approximately $50B. Rivian has already raised more than $8 billion to date from Amazon, Ford, T. Rowe Price, and others.\nRivian has developed and vertically integrated a connected electric platform that can be flexibly applied to a range of applications, including the company's adventure products, as well as B2B products such as the Amazon last-mile delivery vans. The company's initial products, the R1T and R1S, provide a combination of performance, off-road capability, and utility. These vehicles will be produced at Rivian's manufacturing plant in Normal, Ill., with customer deliveries expected to begin in summer 2021. The launch of the R1S three-row electric SUV will follow in August.\nAdditional lower-priced models are being planned. The expected R2 series would include at least two smaller electric vehicles to coincide with the smaller platform, then another platform for R3.\nCommercial Delivery EV Companies\nEV truck companies differ based on the type of truck they are developing. The technology and markets are very different, so I separate them into two categories. The first category includes commercial delivery vehicles.\nCompanies making EV delivery vehicles have some major advantages that could make them good investments. First, delivery vehicles typically travel less than 250 miles during a day, so they can be conveniently recharged overnight. Secondly, they are typically sold in large quantities to fleets. This means that building a retail sales infrastructure is not necessary. It only requires a small salesforce. In addition, maintenance can also be provided at the fleet's operational center, so not as many service centers are required.\nThe disadvantage in this market is that there are a relatively small number of customers that buy in large volumes, so if the EV manufacturer can't get enough large customers, they may not be able to stay in business. GM estimates the combined market opportunity for parcel and food delivery, as well as reverse logistics, in the U.S. will be more than $850 billion by 2025.\nThe commercial market is expected to be a major growth area for EVs. Other start-up automakers like Rivian as well as legacy automakers such as Ford, Daimler, and GM have announced plans to enter the segment. GM recently announced its BrightDrop ecosystem for commercial customers that includes an all-new electric delivery van, the EV600 available by the end of 2021, as well as an integrated autonomous pallet and related services.\nThis group of EV companies focuses primarily on commercial delivery. In general, these are in the light-duty trucks category, although it also includes some medium-duty trucks. This generally includes the following commercial truck classes:\n\nClass 1: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 0-6,000 pounds or 0-2,722 kilograms.\nClass 2: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 6,001-10,000 pounds or 2,722-4,536 kilograms.1\nClass 3: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 10,001-14,000 pounds or 4,536-6,350 kilograms.\n\nIt can also include somewhat larger medium-duty EV delivery trucks:\n\nClass 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.\nClass 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.\n\nEV delivery trucks also have an advantage over ICE vehicles because they can have a greater delivery storage space. Smaller buses and transit vehicles are also included in this category.\nLast-mile package delivery is not an immediate-term autonomous vehicle opportunity because it requires a delivery person to be on the truck anyway.\nWorkhorse Group (WKHS)\nWorkhorse has been a public company for ten years. Originally AMP Electric Vehicles, it was established in 2007 as a developmental-stage vehicle electrification company, focusing on conversions. AMP Electric Vehicles went public in 2010 trading on the OTC market under the AMPD symbol. When the economic benefits of conversion became less certain, it pivoted away from passenger vehicles and began to focus on electrifying commercial vehicles. AMP acquired the Workhorse brand and the Workhorse custom chassis assembly plant in Union City. In March of 2013, AMP formally changed its name to Workhorse Group Incorporated.\nThe Company designs and builds a last-mile delivery electric vehicle. The C-Series EVs cover the larger size of commercial delivery vehicles in Classes 3-5. As part of its solutions, it also develops cloud-based, real-time telematics performance monitoring systems. It sells its vehicles to fleet customers directly and through its primary distributor, Ryder Systems. It is currently focused on bringing the C-Series electric delivery truck to market and fulfilling the existing backlog of orders.\nThe C-Series looks like a viable EV replacement for the 350,000 last-mile delivery vehicles sold in the U.S. annually. It recently announced an increased driving range from 100 miles to 160, which should open more market opportunities. It has a viable short-term go-to-market strategy selling fleets to delivery companies. It currently has test vehicles with UPS, DHL, FedEx, Amazon, and Walmart.\nWorkhorse recently lost out on the United States Postal Services Next Generation Delivery Vehicle project, however, it is in the process of challenging this decision. Additionally, its investment in Lordstown also provides an indirect investment opportunity. On November 7, 2019, the Company entered a transaction with Lordstown Motors to grant LMC a perpetual and worldwide license to certain intellectual property relating to its W-15 electric pickup truck platform and related technology in exchange for royalties, equity interest (approximately 10%) in LMC, and other considerations. This was a $320 million asset for Workhorse at the end of 2020.\nWorkhorse received a significant increase in orders in Q4/2020 but built just seven trucks in the fourth quarter due to production systems and supply chain issues. Workhorse plans to continue to take it slow, striving to build three of its composite-body battery-electric trucks a day in March with a plan to reach 10 trucks a day by the end of June. This makes its original 2021 goal of producing 1,800 trucks unlikely. It partnered with Hitachi and Hitachi Capital America (\"HCA\") to improve the Company's manufacturing, operational, and supply chain capabilities as well as to develop a national dealer network to support Workhorse's sales with vehicle financing options for both dealers and customers.\nWorkhorse has a market cap of approximately $1.9 billion. While Workhorse had ongoing revenue, unlike many other new EV companies, its revenue is still insignificant. It had a revenue of $1.4 million in 2020 and $377,000 in 2019. It has a backlog of over 8,000 vehicles but doesn't expect to be able to build many of those in 2021. It raised $270 million in capital over several financings, providing the Company with additional capital to build its backlog. It had cash of $215 million as of March 1, 2021. Because Workhorse is a traditional public company, it hasn't made long-term financial projections like SPAC-based companies.\nElectric Last Mile (FIII)\nElectric Last Mile, based in Troy Michigan, was founded by Jason Luo, former CEO of Ford China before it was acquired by China's Ningbo Joyson Electronic for $920 million in 2016, including James Taylor, former CEO of GM's Hummer brand and former CEO of electric car maker Karma Automotive. Taylor serves as the company's top executive with Luo as the company's chairman.\nThe company plans to launch a small electric delivery van (class 1-2), called the UD-1, in the third quarter of 2021, and then introduce an Urban Utility vehicle (Class 2-3) in 2022. These are expected to compete with Workhorse, Rivian, Canoo, as well as the Ford eTransit and the GMC BV1, none of which is expected to be a Class 1 vehicle.\nThe company says it has 30,000 preorders for its van, representing more than $1 billion in sales. Electric Last Miles vehicles will be based on Sokon's commercial van made in China through a joint venture with Dongfeng Automobile Co Ltd. in order to accelerate development time.\nElectric Last Mile (ELM) is expected to manufacture the vans in a former General Motors Co. Hummer plant in Mishawaka, Ind., that the company is acquiring from China's Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co. Ltd. The plant has the capacity to produce 100,000 vehicles annually with plans to build approximately 4,000 UD-1 vans by the end of 2021. The UD-1 has a starting price of $32,500 and a range of 150 miles. The battery for the vehicle is expected to be supplied by the Chinese battery company CATL.\nELM believes that it has a competitive advantage because its first vehicle, the ELM Urban Delivery, is scheduled to be available in 2021. It is based on a proven, existing platform developed and sold by Sokon Group in the Asian market, where there are 30,000 of these electric delivery vehicles driving 1.5 million miles every day. At the close of the business combination, ELM will be an independent, U.S. company producing electric vehicles in the U.S. with Sokon Group providing access to its know-how, parts supply, and field and service data.\nELM expects that the Urban Delivery vehicle will be the first electric delivery vehicle coming to market in the class 1 category (GVW of 6,000 lbs or less) in the U.S. It will also have 35% more carrying volume compared to similar ICE delivery vehicles, a critical part of the value proposition. It also anticipates that its price and greater carrying volume will allow it to take market share from the class 2 category of vehicles as well.\nIts crossover product portfolio strategy targets commercial delivery vehicles spanning from class 1 to class 3, which represents over 80% of the last mile market.\nELM anticipates $122 million in revenue in 2021, rapidly increasing to $3 billion in 2025. The price of FIII stock increased immediately following its announcement with Electric Last Mile, rising more than 40% to $14.50, but now it has dropped closer to the original deal price to $10.25 for a market cap of approximately $1.5 billion.\nGreenPower Motor Company (GP)\nGreenPower Motor Company Inc. is a Canadian battery-electric bus manufacturer with multiple models of high- and low-floor vehicles, including transit buses, school buses, and shuttles. GreenPower offers commercial vehicles for delivery, public transit, schools, vanpooling, micro-transit, shuttles, and is developing a capability of autonomous operation. It went public on August 28, 2020.\nIn 2014 GreenPower launched its first purpose-built, battery-electric bus, the EV350, 40-foot transit bus. GreenPower received its first order in 2017 for ten EV350s from the City of Porterville, California.\nGreenPower's electric buses are purpose-built and designed to be all-electric, allowing it to put the battery and propulsion system in optimized locations that provide weight and structural advantages. Its primary EV is the EV Star with more than 120 vehicles delivered. It comes in several variations:\n\nEV Star - Up to 19 passengers\nEV Star Plus - Up to 24 passengers\nEV Star ADA - Passenger and curbside lift for ADA\nEV Star Cargo - 5,000 pounds of load\nEV Star Cargo Plus - 570 cubic feet of cargo space.\n\nIts EV school bus seats up to 90 students and has a range of up to 150 miles.\nGreenPower had revenue of $13.5 million in 2020 It has about $21 million in cash. It's an interesting alternative since it is already shipping EVs, has revenue, and also has a lower market cap of less than $1 billion. Since it did a traditional IPO, it hasn't published longer-term financial forecasts.\nArrival (CIIC)\nArrival was founded in 2015 in London to make a variety of commercial electric vehicles. It has approximately 1,200 employees across 11 cities in 8 countries. In November 2020, Arrival and the SPAC CIIG entered into a business combination agreement with an implied valuation of $5.39 billion.\nArrival plans on releasing four commercial EVs over the next few years.\n\nQ4/2021: An electric bus for 8-125 passengers and a range of 240-400km\nQ3/2022: An electric delivery van with a payload of 975-2,000kg and a range of 150-340km\n2022: A larger electric van with a payload of 4,000 kg and a range of 190-400km\n2023: a small vehicle platform with a range of 100-300km.\n\nThis mix provides a nice diversified portfolio of EVs. Arrival claims to have received orders from UPS for 10,000 vans. It plans a unique flexible manufacturing approach using micro-factories with each projected to manufacture 10,000 vans per year. All of its vehicles use a modular skateboard electric platform.\nArrival ambitiously projects $14.1 billion in revenue in 2024. Half of that revenue is expected from delivery vans, 22% from buses, and the rest from the large van and its small vehicle platform. With CIIC's stock price at $24.80 per share, Arrival's current market cap is relatively high at approximately $15.0 billion. Justifying its market cap depends on its ability to release, sell, and produce its four commercial EVs.\nProterra (ACTC)\nProterra is a commercial electric vehicle company with over a decade of production experience. The Company has designed an end-to-end, flexible technology platform that claims to deliver higher performance and a low total cost of ownership to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end customers.\nProterra, Inc., was originally founded in Golden, Colorado, by Dale Hill in 2004. Later the company wanted to take the lead in creating zero-emission, U.S.-based transit buses. In 2010 it moved its manufacturing plant from Golden, Colorado to Greenville, South Carolina. In 2015, Proterra was awarded a $3 million grant from the California Energy Commission to fund the design, development, and construction of the company's battery-electric transit bus manufacturing line in the City of Industry, California. It moved its headquarters from Greenville, South Carolina, to Burlingame, California, in October 2015. Proterra raised more than $600 million in funding.\nIt is going public through the SPAC ArcLight (ACTC) with a pro forma valuation of $1.6 billion. Upon completion of the transaction, Proterra expects to have up to $825 million in cash to fund growth initiatives, including R&D and the expansion of its next-generation battery program.\nProterra has three complementary businesses:\n\nProterra Powered: Delivering battery systems and electrification solutions to commercial vehicle manufacturers\nProterra Transit:Providing an electric transit bus OEMs\nProterra Energy:Offering turnkey charging and energy management solutions.\n\nThe company's battery systems have been proven in more than 16 million service miles driven by its fleet of transit vehicles and validated through partnerships with commercial vehicle OEMs. Proterra has produced and delivered more than 300 megawatt-hours of battery systems, more than 550 heavy-duty electric transit buses, and installed 54 megawatts of charging systems.\nProterra expected $193 million of revenue in 2020, with an estimated $750 million in existing orders and backlog. It projects $2.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with about 1/3 coming from its Transit business, and 2/3 From Powered & Energy. At ACTC's current stock price of $17.85, Proterra has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nRivian\nRivian (see earlier description in consumer retail) will also compete in the commercial delivery market. It has been working with Amazon (a major investor) to build large electric delivery vans for Prime. Developed specifically for Amazon, a small fleet of Prime vans is on the road now, testing deliveries to customers and gathering feedback. In late fall, it could grow to a large fleet as Rivian ramps up the volume.\nThe EV range of 150 miles is tailored to Amazon's use cycle to optimize the size, weight, and cost of the commercial vehicle. Rivian has three sizes of batteries, but Amazon is starting with just one of them.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nSee the previous summary under consumer retail EV.\nMedium and Long-Haul Trucking EV Companies\nCompanies developing medium- and long-haul EV trucks face a more difficult challenge with battery range. These trucks haul much more weight than commercial delivery vehicles and because they are designed for long distances, they can't stop every 200-300 miles for recharging.\nFor this reason, many of these companies are using unique hybrid technologies for their trucks. The EV trucks in this category are primarily heavy-duty but also include some medium-duty trucks and specialty vehicles. A couple of the companies focus on retrofitting trucks to be electric.\nMedium-Duty Trucks\nThe medium-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 4, 5, and 6:\n\nClass 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.\nClass 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.\nClass 6: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 19,501-26,000 pounds or 8,846-11,793 kilograms.1\n\nHeavy-Duty Trucks\nThe heavy-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 7 and 8:\n\nClass 7: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 26,001 to 33,000 pounds or 11,794-14,969 kilograms.\nClass 8: This class of trucks has a GVWR of greater than 33,001 pounds or 14,969 kilograms and includes all tractor-trailers.\n\nThe Tesla Semi is a battery vehicle planned for a range of 300 or 500 miles and a speed of 60 MPH with 80,000 lbs of cargo. Tesla plans to start shipping the Semi later this year when it expects to have sufficient cell volume to meet its needs with the production of its 4680 battery pack.\nNikola(NASDAQ:NKLA)\nNikola has been a very controversial company. Founded in 2015, it originally had two different strategies. Its primary strategy is to lease fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) Class-8 heavy trucks and provide the refueling infrastructure to corporate customers. Its second strategy was to develop the Badger EV truck using GM technology.\nNikola originally merged with a SPAC to go public, at an enterprise value of approximately $3.3 billion. On June 6th, 2020, its market cap jumped to more than $30 billion, then later it dropped because of problems with its originally planned deal with GM.\nNikola originally expected a deal with General Motors that included the production of the Nikola Badger EV pickup truck. The proposed arrangement was that GM would take a $2 billion equity stake in Nikola and in return would engineer and produce the Badger. In November 2020, GM and Nikola scrapped the original arrangement. Now it appears that GM will supply Nikola with only its Hydrotec hydrogen fuel-cell technology to integrate into the EV manufacturer's commercial class 7 and class 8 zero-emission semi-trucks. So, the Badger is probably dead.\nNikola now sees semi-trucks as the company's \"core business\" and fuel cells as an increasingly important segment of the semi-truck market thanks to their efficiency in weight and consumption. It expects to begin testing by the end of 2021.\nIt has received pre-orders from Anheuser-Busch and a few other companies, but it doesn't expect deliveries until 2023. Hydrogen fueling stations are key to its strategy, both providing a source of revenue and necessary fueling infrastructure for the trucks to operate, but they also cost a lot. In its March 2020 investor deck, Nikola said a single station capable of fueling 210 trucks a day would cost $16.6 million. Its initial planned network of 700 stations would cost roughly $11.6 billion.\nNikola was also accused of misrepresentation, and its executive chairman and founder stepped down.\nAt the time of the SPAC merger, it projected an optimistic forecast of more than $3 billion in revenue by 2024, with a net income of $145 million. Most of that revenue was expected to come from its Badger truck, which is no longer in the plans. Yet its market cap is still almost $6 billion.\nHyliion (HYLN)\nHyliion, founded in 2015 in Austin, went public in October 2020 through the SPAC Tortoise Acquisition Corp. (SHLL). In March 2019, automotive parts manufacturer Dana Inc. made an equity investment into Hyliion, and together they are manufacturing and marketing Class 8 EVs to Dana's customers, including Volvo, Navistar, and Peterbilt.\nHyliion's strategy is unique, and a very different strategy from Nikola. Essentially it generates electricity onboard the truck using compressed natural gas (CNG). This should be a benefit for longer-range trucking. Hyliion's Hypertruck concept involves an all-electric drivetrain utilizing Dana's electric motor, inverter, and axle technologies. The truck's batteries are fueled by onboard tanks of CNG. With some 700 CNG stations already operating nationwide, it believes that there no need to build out expensive superchargers or hydrogen infrastructure.\nKuwait-based logistics company, Agility, has already placed an order for 1,000 Hypertrucks with initial deliveries targeted in 2022. Combined with a fully electric drivetrain and a natural gas-powered onboard generator to recharge the battery, the Hypertruck ERX will provide more than 1,000 miles of range.\nHyliion will eventually compete with Nikola (FCEV) and the Tesla battery-based Semi, but it plans to have a longer range and lower operating costs. Its HyperTruck ERX is expected to be available in 2021. It also has a hybrid-electric truck.\nThe combination with SHLL had an estimated market cap of about $1.5 billion, with approximately $530 million going to the company, including a $325 million fully committed PIPE. At approximately $13.50 per share, its current market cap is approximately $2.2 billion, significantly down from its peak. Hyliion projects $2 billion in revenue in 2024, which it claims is only about 2% of the addressable market.\nXL Fleet (XL)\nXL Fleet is a 10-year old company that went public through the SPAC Pivotal. XL is different because it provides fleet electrification modifications for ICE trucks across a wide range of vehicle classes (class 2-5) and types. It has over 200 of the largest commercial and municipal fleets as customers, with more than 3,200 XL systems deployed and over 130 million miles driven by customers to date. XL's customer base includes FedEx, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Verizon, the City of Boston, Seattle Fire Department, Yale University, and Harvard University.\nXL's business model is essentially retrofitting existing trucks to be hybrids and then later expanding into fully electric truck conversions. It claims to be creating a fully integrated platform for this. It remains to be seen if the retrofitting business will continue to grow or will it diminish when more trucks are designed and manufactured with EV capabilities.\nUnlike some other EV companies that have no revenue yet because they are still developing products, XL is more of a small company doing low-volume retrofits. It had $7.2 million in revenue in 2019, $21 million in 2020, and estimates $76 million in 2021, but it forecasts $1.3 billion in revenue in 2024 in its investor presentation. It plans to do this by expanding its product line from hybrid to plug-in hybrid to fully electric across a broader range of trucks. It claims to have a $220 million sales pipeline for the next 12 months.\nShort-seller, Muddy Waters, claimed after talking to former XL Fleet employees, that it believed the company significantly exaggerated its order backlog, that the return on investment for the company's products was likely negative, and that it would not be able to compete with big car makers on electrification. The company thoroughly refuted these claims.\nThe original enterprise valuation was approximately $1.4 billion at a $10 share price for the merger. Its price jumped by about 35% but has since gone back down to $12.40 for a market cap of about $1.8 billion. Although XL Fleet has revenue and other EV companies don't, this may not be an advantage. It appears to be a small company for many years that has gone public at a high valuation with grand plans. The risks are in its ability to make a jump from $76 million in 2021 to $1.3 billion in 2024, as well as the question about retrofitting being replaced by new EV trucks by then.\nXos (NGAC)\nXos Trucks specializes in the field of manufacturing fully electric commercial vehicles. It features a software platform that is designed to accommodate an extensive variety of medium-duty bodies, wheelbase, and range requirements up to 200 miles. It was founded in 2016 and headquartered in North Hollywood, California. It received $20 million of investment in 2020 and now is going public through a merger with the SPAC ExtGen Acquisition Corporation (NGAC) at an estimated proforma value of $1.965 billion.\nIts focus is on medium- and heavy-duty last mile and return-to-base segments (class 5/6, class 6/7, and class 7/8) commercial fleets and specialty vehicles. Some vehicles are currently in production and in regular on-road operations with key fleet customers, and it claimed 6,000 unit orders in backlog.\nIts MD-platform is for classes 5-6 for pickup and delivery. Its HD X-Platform is an adaptable chassis for highway, vocational, and severe work conditions. Its market is for customers with highly predictable routes that allow for batteries designed for a more limited range. A significantly larger frame and smaller battery pack allow for reduced density.\nXos has a bundled all-in-one offering that allows fleets to access all the tools and services they need to go electric with a single point of contact at a fixed monthly expense.\nXos had $3 million in revenue in 2020 and estimates $14 million in 2021. However, it forecasts $5.2 billion in revenue in 2025. At the current stock price of $10.30, its market cap is approximately $2 billion, about the same as its original SPAC transaction.\nLion Electric (NGA)\nLion Electric is a Canadian company founded by Marc Bédard in 2008. Its focus is to be a leader in designing, developing, and manufacturing purpose-built urban electric vehicles; vehicles that are specifically designed as delivery trucks, refuse trucks, bucket trucks, moving trucks, school buses, and shuttle buses. It has over 300 all-electric vehicles on the road today.\nIn November 2020, it announced that it was going public through the SPAC NGA. The transaction had an estimated pro forma enterprise value of $1.5 billion.\nIt plans on seven new truck models and one new school bus, for a total of 15 all-electric vehicles, representing a full line-up from class 5 to class 8 electric trucks and a full line-up of electric school buses. Its vehicles are produced at its existing manufacturing plant, which has the capacity for the production of up to 2,500 vehicles per year. It intends to open a new plant in the U.S. capable of delivering over 20,000 Lion trucks and buses per year by 2022.\nIts all-electric class 6 and class 8 commercial urban trucks combine power, comfort, and modern technology. Custom-built chassis and cabin designed specifically for an all-electric heavy-duty vehicle. The LionC is an all-electric Type C school bus manufactured in North America. The body and chassis were specifically designed to deliver optimal performance. The LionM is an all-electric midi/minibus that meets paratransit and public transportation requirements. Created and designed specifically for the paratransit market, the is spacious and offers unique features that provide enhanced security and accessibility to the end-users.\nLion Electric had $29 million in revenue in 2020 and expects $204 million in 2021. It forecasts revenue to jump to $3.6 billion a few years later in 2024. Its current market cap is approximately $3.6 billion based on its current stock price of $18.33.\nLightning eMotors (GIK)\nLightning eMotors, formerly Lightning Systems, was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Loveland, Colorado. It provides fleet electrification for familiar commercial vehicle platforms by retrofitting them with its electric powertrains. Lightning eMotors produces electric fleet medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including delivery trucks, shuttle buses, passenger vans, ambulances, bucket trucks, chassis-cab models, and city transit buses. It focuses on urban commercial zero-emission vehicles with a full range of class 3 through class 7 battery-electric and fuel-cell electric vehicles.\nLighting eMotors helps commercial fleets achieve their sustainability goals by offering zero-emission battery-electric vans, trucks, and buses based on familiar, proven vehicles from manufacturers such as Ford and GM. It works with customers, to help them identify their unique commercial electric vehicle, charging, and grant support needs.\nThe Lightning products include integrated all-electric powertrains for the Ford Transit 350HD passenger and cargo vans, Ford E-450 shuttle bus and cutaway models, Ford F-59 step/food van, Ford F-550 cargo trucks and buses, Chevrolet 6500XD Low Cab Forward model, and 30-foot, 35-foot, and 40-foot transit buses.\nLightning has 120 vehicles on the road, and 1,500 vehicles already on order from customers. In addition to making vehicles and powertrains, Lightning also provides a full suite of charging solutions for customers.\nThe deal with GIK has an enterprise value of $650 million, although there is also an Earnout of 20.0% of total pro forma shares outstanding to Lightning eMotors shareholders if the stock crosses certain price thresholds.\nAt the current price, of $11.73, GIK has a market cap of approximately $1 billion, a little more than the original transaction valuation. Similar to XL Fleet, Lightning has the risk that retrofitting may only be an interim business opportunity until more EV trucks are produced.\nPublic Chinese EV Companies\nChina will be the biggest EV market opportunity, and EV start-ups may do better there because there isn't as much entrenched competition from domestic auto companies. China is already the largest EV market in the world, with almost a million EVs sold in 2019. Its EV market represents almost half of the global EV sales volume and is much larger than the U.S. market.\nThe Chinese government has ambitions to become a global leader in new energy vehicles. Soon after the coronavirus outbreak subsided within the country, Chinese authorities announced new policies to support the auto and electric vehicle industries.\nThese Chinese companies are traded through American depository shares (ADS) that contain certain risks. There are financial reporting and transparency risks with these companies, and on top of that, the newer companies are being classified as \"emerging growth\" companies that are already exempt from certain transparency requirements set out in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Like the previous EV stock, these stocks have also been very volatile.\nIn addition to legacy auto manufacturers like BYD, there are also three Chinese EV companies that are publicly traded through American depositary shares.\nBYD Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:BYDDY)\nBYD, which means build your dreams, is the automotive subsidiary of the Chinese multinational BYD Co Ltd. It was founded in January 2003, following BYD Company's acquisition of Tsinchuan Automobile Company. The company produces automobiles, buses, electric bicycles, forklifts, rechargeable batteries, and trucks. The current model range of automobiles includes electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and petrol-engined vehicles. Thirteen years ago, on the advice of his famously skeptical lieutenant, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett made a $232 million investment in BYD, a relatively unknown Chinese car company.\nBy parlaying BYD's rechargeable battery technology into a fast-growing carmaking operation, it gained a foothold in the fledgling electric vehicle market, building longer-lasting batteries and cheaper vehicles than American and Japanese manufacturers were managing to do at the time. In BYD, Buffett and Munger believed they had found a company with a shot at one day becoming the largest player in a global automobile market that was inevitably going electric.\nBYD's start to 2021 was strong with 19,871 plug-in electric cars sold in January in China, including hybrid plug-ins. That was a big increase over 2020 but not as much as 2019.\nLI Auto (LI)\nLixiang, formerly known as Chehejia (\"Car and Home\"), was founded in 2015 and went public in the U.S. on July 30th, 2020. It is a Beijing-based electric-vehicle startup with vertically integrated manufacturing. It designs, researches, manufactures, sells, and offers services featuring a few models of electric vehicles.\nThe company's SUVs are hybrids of a sort. They use electric motors (one on the front axle and one on the rear), but those motors are powered by a combination of a 40.5kWh battery packanda 1.2-liter turbocharged engine paired to a 45-liter fuel tank and a 100kW electric generator, which generates power for the battery pack in real-time. The idea is that the car can be driven for about 100 miles on battery power alone, but it has a total range of nearly 500 miles when leveraging the combustion engine generator.\nThe Company's primary product is an SUV under its brand Li ONE. It also sells peripheral products and provides related services, such as charging stalls, vehicle internet connection services, and extended lifetime warranties. Li Auto is looking to sell a variety of SUVs built on its hybrid technology that range from around $21,000 to about $70,000. The company started shipping its first model in late 2019. It's a midsize SUV is well-appointed and has lots of touchscreens and technology. A full-size premium version is planned for release in 2022.\nDeliveries of Li ONEs were 14,464 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a 67.0% quarter-over-quarter increase and setting a new quarterly record. Deliveries for the full year 2020 reached 32,624 vehicles. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $635 million.\nLI auto went public on July 30th, 2020, raising $1.1 billion at an initial price of $15.50 per share but quickly reached almost $24. It is currently valued at approximately $37 billion at a price of approximately $25.72 per share.\nXPeng (XPEV)\nXiaopeng (XPeng) Motors is a Chinese electric vehicle and technology company that designs and manufactures smart cars. It was founded in 2015 and went public on August 27, 2020, using American depository shares, raising about $1 billion. To date, it has raised about $2.6 billion.\nXPeng aims its EVs at technology-savvy middle-class Chinese consumers, with prices ranging from $22,000 to $45,000 after government subsidies. In some ways, it is a Tesla knock-off at a much lower price. XPeng started production of the G3 in November 2018, and as of July 31, 2020, delivered 18,741. It started production of the P7 and began delivery in May 2020, and as of July 31, 2020, it had delivered 1,966 EVs. The P7 has a range of more than 400 miles. It plans to launch a third Smart EV, a sedan, in 2021. The G3 was among the top-three best-selling electric SUVs in China in 2019.\nXPeng is interesting because it has a platform strategy and is moving aggressively into autonomous driving. It uses a platform strategy to expand product offerings by launching one Smart EV model each year to broaden the addressable market. It builds new models on two highly flexible Smart EV platforms, called David and Edward, respectively. The David platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,600 millimeters to 2,800 millimeters, and the Edward platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,800 millimeters to 3,100 millimeters. It also adopted a platform approach for software systems.\nXPeng claims to be developing an autonomous driving capability for its EVs. The P7 is the first production vehicle to feature the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Xavier system-on-a-chip (SoC) autonomous driving platform. The company's Smart Electric Platform Architecture (SEPA) runs on 2 chips - NVIDIA for the XPILOT and Qualcomm's Snapdragon™ 820A for intelligent services and infotainment, including cameras inside and outside, radars, HD-map, and ultrasonic sensors. Like Tesla, it claims it can create sufficiently-autonomous driving without lidar.\nTo enhance brand recognition and allow more people to experience its Smart EVs, it deployed a small number of Smart EVs in a ride-hailing service in Guangzhou on a trial basis, but it has no current plan to scale up a ride-hailing service.\nXpeng sees first-quarter 2021 deliveries rising 450% year-over-year to 12,500 vehicles. Revenues are expected to increase 533% from a year ago. The company didn't provide bottom-line estimates for the quarter, but will likely post another net loss as it ramps up manufacturing, invests in R&D, and builds out a new manufacturing plant set to open in 2022.\nXpeng reported selling 12,964 vehicles in Q4 2020, up 303% from a year ago. It delivered a total of 27,041 vehicles in 2020, up 112%. It makes the P7 sedan, a rival to the made-in-China Tesla Model 3, and the small G3 SUV.\nThe stock opened on August 27, 2020 at a price of $15 and a valuation of $11 billion, but its stock jumped more than 40% shortly after. Its current valuation is about $35 billion at a stock price of approximately $36.13 per share. It had about $300 million in revenue in 2019 with a loss of about $500 million.\nNio (NIO)\nUnlike previous companies, Nio has been a public company for some time. It originally went public in the U.S. back in September of 2018, selling IPO shares at $6.26 and raising $1 billion.\nNio's IPO was far from smooth. After going public at $6.26 per share, it traded down to nearly $1. Then in the middle of the coronavirus outbreak, Nio received a much-needed investment of $1 billion from investors, including state-backed entities.\nNio designs, jointly manufactures, and sells smart and connected premium electric vehicles, attempting to develop next-generation technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving, and artificial intelligence. Joint manufacturing means that it uses a state-owned contract manufacturer to build its cars.\nNio plans to provide customers with comprehensive, convenient, and innovative charging solutions and other user-centric services. It began deliveries of the ES8, a 7-seater high-performance premium electric SUV in China in June 2018, and its variant, the six-seater ES8, in March 2019. Nio officially launched the ES6, a 5-seater high-performance premium electric SUV, in December 2018 and began deliveries in June 2019. It officially launched the EC6, a 5-seater smart premium electric Coupe SUV, in December 2019 with deliveries in 2020.\nNio sold 17,353 EVs in Q4/2020 and 43,728 for the year. It warned a shortage in chips and batteries will force a production slowdown to 7,500 a month in Q2 from 10,000 vehicles a month in February.\nNio currently trades at more than $43 per share, including a big jump recently, for a valuation of approximately $48 billion. It had revenue of $2.3 billion in 2019 for a loss of $3.8 billion.\nSummary\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this should provide exciting new investment opportunities. However, the investment terrain is complex. There are dozens of new start-ups where the public can now invest that were previously exclusively venture capital investment opportunities. Many of these are following different roads to success. There are legacy auto manufacturers that could prosper or get destroyed in this transition. There are some exciting new EV company opportunities in China. And then there is Tesla.\nThis EV roadmap is intended to help investors explore different roads to investment by explaining the basic strategies for these EV companies. These roads can have different opportunities and risks, and the roadmap helps to frame these. Above all, valuation is an overriding risk that is highlighted throughout this article.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":353191393,"gmtCreate":1616466808712,"gmtModify":1704794457608,"author":{"id":"3559824795366750","authorId":"3559824795366750","name":"Kiteflying","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c4e5c6dfeb378c0ccafe8d68fd396c2","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3559824795366750","authorIdStr":"3559824795366750"},"htmlText":"I think hybrid ev will come through as compared to full ev&nbsp;","listText":"I think hybrid ev will come through as compared to full ev&nbsp;","text":"I think hybrid ev will come through as compared to full ev","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353191393","repostId":1196402560,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196402560","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616134696,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196402560?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-19 14:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"New Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196402560","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, an","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>It's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.</li>\n <li>Last October, I wrote a popular article providing a roadmap for investing in electric vehicles, but since then, so much has changed: new entrants, new strategies, fluctuating valuations, etc.</li>\n <li>So, I updated and greatly expanded the previous EV investment roadmap.</li>\n <li>This update includes a deeper look at valuations for 23 EV companies with revenue projections, when available.</li>\n <li>It also classifies these EV companies into their primary market categories and summarizes their different strategies.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb96acc615cba9c7842860658c019ab1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\">Photo by Sven Loeffler/iStock via Getty Images\nMy article&nbsp;Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap&nbsp;published five months ago, was popular, and some followers have requested an update. Many new EV companies entered the market, most of them through SPACs. Valuations fluctuated wildly, and there has been a great deal of publicity around these companies.\nThis new updated EV investment roadmap is greatly expanded. In addition to updating the strategies and progress of companies previously discussed, I expanded the number of companies covered. This article also groups EV companies into their primary markets, enabling better comparisons and evaluation of market opportunities. In addition, it includes a comparative valuation chart showing every company's market cap with a comparison to projected revenue, where possible. This takes advantage (good or bad) of looking at the long-term revenue forecasts provided in SPAC mergers that public companies can't make.\nIn addition to the EV manufacturers discussed here, there are also EV investment opportunities in charging station companies, battery manufacturers, and battery materials companies. These were covered in the original roadmap and may also be updated in a later article.\nApproximately 2 million EVs were sold in 2019, and although the number declined along with all auto sales in 2020, it is forecasted to increase in 2021 and reach 8-10 million by 2025. Some forecast that EV sales will be greater than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2030, or even earlier. The automobile market appears to be moving toward a historical transformation, and exceptional investment gains can be made by anticipating new emerging industries and investing in the eventual winners of those new industries. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)are obvious examples. Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to create a new emerging industry.\nThere are also significant risks. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to be released in the next three years, which will drive rapid growth in EV sales. However, the expected sales from these new models, as well as the increasing expectations from Tesla, most likely exceed the total projected market. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the companies covered here won't exist five years from now. It reminds me of the internet bubble of the late 1990s when scores of internet-based companies went public with little or no revenue. Almost all of these failed within three years -- however, a couple, including Amazon, went on to enormous success.\nEVs provide a major new investment opportunity with high risks. To succeed, you need to have a clear EV investment roadmap.\nSo, how can you invest in this new emerging market? The EV landscape is complex and investment opportunities are varied. While Tesla is the unquestioned leader in EVs, some consider it overvalued and unlikely to show exceptional returns to new investors. The current U.S. legacy automakers are committed to introducing many new EVs in the next few years, and they have some entrenched advantages with volume manufacturing capabilities, a dealer infrastructure, and loyal customers. There are exciting new EV start-ups in the U.S. that have come public this year, mostly through Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), and there are several interesting publicly traded Chinese EV manufacturers.\nThis new roadmap for EV investment classifies companies into three primary markets segments:\n<ul>\n <li>TheConsumer Retailsegment includes EVs sold to consumers individually, such as SUVs, pickup trucks, sedans, etc.</li>\n <li>TheCommercial Deliverysegment includes local delivery EV vans and trucks sold to fleets.</li>\n <li>TheMedium- and Long-Haul Truckingsegment includes heavier Class 4 - Class 8 trucks, as well as special industrial vehicles.</li>\n</ul>\nIn addition, it categorizesLegacy ManufacturersandChinese EV Companies. This enables investors to evaluate investment opportunities by considering unique opportunities within each market segment.\nThere is an enormous amount of investment optimism for EVs, and retail investors have been aggressively buying into EV stocks with seemingly no regard for valuation. Then there is the additional challenge of valuing companies with no revenue, especially those coming public through SPACs. So, valuation is an important investment consideration.\nSo let's start by looking at an overview of comparative EV valuations.\nEV Investment Valuation Overview\nThe following chart summarizes valuations for 23 EV companies, including several legacy companies. For SPACs, market cap estimates are computed using the pro forma number of shares at closing, otherwise using the valuation of the SPAC prior to closing drastically underestimates the valuation, which may be misleading to novice investors. Price/Sales ratios (market cap divided by revenue) are used to compare valuations. As a benchmark, current P/S ratios vary. For example, auto and truck companies have a ratio of 2.7X. Software companies have the highest ratios of over 10X.\nIn the chart, companies that currently have revenue show current P/S ratios. Where projections are available, projected P/S ratios are computed. A note of caution, however. Many of the EV companies came public through SPACs and published their projections (which public companies cannot do), and many of these are likely to prove unrealistic.\nAll of the longer-term revenue projections come from the company (C) forecasts with a SPAC. Some of these may turn out to be accurate, not many are most likely unrealistic. Some, like Lucid, Faraday, and Arrival forecast hitting more than $10 billion in revenue in a few years, when it took Tesla more than 10. Things are different now and they might achieve these, but they could also find that it will take longer to complete development, ramp up production, and create enough customer demand. Many companies may also find that there will be significant capital requirements to achieve this type of growth, and shareholders will be diluted.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc360dfa7de01516b7f68d5962cf3017\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"883\">\nTesla, the \"gold standard\" in EVs, has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, which many people believe is overvalued. Its market cap is approximately 20X 2020 revenue and 10X estimated 2022 revenue.\nTesla (TSLA)\nIn the U.S., and to a lesser extent in China, Tesla is the dominant EV provider. It has approximately 60% of the U.S. EV market and about 20% of the market in China. I own a Tesla and love it, but an investment in Tesla stock requires getting comfortable with its valuation. Tesla has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, although declining lately, which some consider still overvalued while others see upside potential.\nThe investment opportunity with Tesla is based on the expectation that it will continue to dominate the EV market, or at least maintain significant market share, despite much greater competition from the expected introduction of hundreds of new EV models in the next few years.\nThere is a great deal already published about Tesla, so I'll move on.\nLegacy Automakers\nSome people think that the legacy automakers will simply fade away. Historically, that was the case in some other industries, but it is not going to happen to most automakers. They are not standing still waiting to become obsolete. Most have aggressive strategies to replace ICE vehicles with EVs. GM plans to invest $27 billion and build and launch as many as 30 new EV models by 2025. Ford plans to invest $29 billion in EVs by 2025 and launch as many as 16 EVs in the next two years. Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY)has also committed billions to develop new EVs.\nThe competitive advantage that legacy automakers have in selling their new EVs is their dealer network. Will new EV customers prefer to continue going to their regular auto dealer to buy their new EV?\nAlmost all legacy automakers worldwide are developing and launching EVs including Volkswagen, Peugeot, Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi, Hyundai/Kia. Let's look a little more closely at GM and Ford as the leaders in the U.S.\nGeneral Motors (GM)\nGM has committed to introducing 20 new electric vehicles by 2023, including EVs across Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC, and Buick. It recently announced that it has already sold out the first-year production of its Hummer electric pickup. By mid-decade, it expects to sell a million EVs per year in its two largest markets: North America and China. As a reference point, Tesla reported deliveries of 367,500 vehicles globally in 2019.\nGM has a solid platform strategy for its EVs. It plans on building its EVs using five interchangeable drive units and three different motors from its Ultium Drive System platform. Ultium energy options range from 50 to 200 kWh, which could enable an estimated range of up to 400 miles. Most of its EVs will have 400-volt battery packs and up to 200 kW fast-charging capability while the truck platform will have 800-volt battery packs and 350 kW fast-charging capabilities.\nThe key building blocks of the Ultium battery system are large-scale, high-energy cells. Engineered in partnership with LG Energy Solutions, they use both advanced chemistry and a smart cell design that's optimized for a broad portfolio of EVs. GM engineers and scientists are actively researching and testing new elements in battery chemistry to lower costs and improve charge times. Ultium can contain either vertically- or horizontally-stacked cells to integrate into vehicle design: vertically for trucks, SUVs, and crossovers, or horizontally for cars and performance vehicles. As new chemistry is developed and becomes available, the battery management system could digitally update the modules.\nGM also has other EV opportunities with its BrightDrop commercial EV service and its Cruise subsidiary. BrightDrop will not just sell delivery EVs, it will provide an entire service platform for commercial delivery customers. Its set of electric delivery vehicles starts with the EV600 and includes the BrightDrop EP1, a pod-like electric pallet. SeeGeneral Motors' Aggressive EV/AV Strategies May Payoff Big.\nWith its highest stock price of $61.65, GM's current market cap is approximately $89 billion, increasing primarily because of its progress with EVs. This approximately 3X valuation in 2018, but still only 13% of Tesla.\nFord (F)\nFord is also investing heavily in EVs. It just introduced the Mustang Mach-E, a battery-powered crossover with sports car styling, and plans to introduce an all-electric version of its best-selling F-150 pickup later this year. Also, planned is an electric edition of the full-size Transit van, which has been popular in the commercial delivery market. Ford has confirmed plans to build a luxury Lincoln crossover on a battery-powered platform provided by Rivian. The automaker also plans to introduce two new midsize electric crossovers, one each for the Ford and Lincoln brands by 2023.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd8523e15bccc57790940d4218f7b94e\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"1080\">Mustang Mach-E. Source: Ford\nFord's market cap is approximately $51 billion, twice its previous market cap, and also increasing.\nConsumer Retail EV Companies\nThe consumer retail market has some unique characteristics for new EV companies. Sales are made individually, not in fleets. This diversifies the risk upon launch because only a sufficient number of customers need to be attracted to the new EV. A wave of popularity can provide terrific momentum.\nHowever, the lack of a dealer network can be an impediment. Selling EVs directly to consumers instead of through dealers is prohibited in most states. By law, auto manufacturers can't compete with franchised dealers. These are laws that go back many decades to protect dealers. This can be a major impediment for new companies without established independent dealer franchises. So, new AV companies. like Tesla, need to sell their vehicles online. Tesla has successfully done this, but it took a lot of work and time. Lack of a dealer network also creates impediments in service.\nIn addition, over the next 4-5 years, autonomous capabilities will be increasingly important to luxury vehicles. This may prove to be a challenge to start-up EV companies because they can't afford to develop this technology.\nLet's look closer at the alternative consumer retail EV investments.\nLucid Motors (CCIV)\nLucid was founded in 2007 under the name Atieva and originally focused on building electric vehicle batteries and powertrains for other vehicle manufacturers. The company rebranded itself as Lucid Motors in October 2016 and shifted its strategy to develop an all-electric, high-performance, luxury vehicle. Shortly after that, it encountered financial difficulties and struggled to get short-term funding. In 2018 it raised more than $1 billion in investment, primarily from Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund, and gave up a majority of the company.\nLucid Motors reached an agreement to become a publicly-traded company through a merger with the SPAC Churchill Capital IV Corp., in one of the largest deals SPAC EV deals. The combined company, in which Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund will continue to be the largest shareholder, had a transaction equity value of $11.75 billion (for $10/share). At the same time, it closed a PIPE investment priced at $15 a share, giving it an implied pro forma equity value of $24 billion. Rumors about this deal circulated before the transaction was formally announced, making it one of the most anticipated SPAC deals. The hype and speculation drove up the stock price of Churchill Capital IV Corp. from its opening price of $10 a share to almost $60. I believe that some of this may have been driven by novice SPAC investors who didn't realize that the valuation of CCIV didn't include the eventual valuation of Lucid. The share price dropped more than 30% after the details of the deal were announced. It's also likely that Lucid renegotiated the terms of the merger based on the price jump.\nThe company's first product is the Lucid Air, a well-equipped luxury electric vehicle that features 406 miles of projected range and 480 horsepower with a starting price of $77,400, or $69,900 after the U.S. Federal Tax Credit of $7,500. This new Lucid Air model is positioned as a high-performance, ultra-efficient luxury EV sedan in a line of future vehicles that are expected to include Lucid Air Touring, Grand Touring, and Dream Edition versions.\nThe company plans to begin production and deliveries of the Lucid Air in North America in the second half of 2021. Previously the company aimed to begin deliveries earlier in 2021. It intends to sell the car in Europe in 2022, followed by China in 2023. Lucid vehicles will be produced at its new factory in Casa Grande, Arizona. The company plans to expand the factory in phases in the coming years to have the capacity to produce 365,000 units per year at scale. The initial phase of the $700 million factory construction was completed late last year and will have the capacity to produce 30,000 vehicles a year.\nLucid also apparently has a commitment to build an assembly plant in Saudi Arabia, which was rumored to be a condition of the $1 billion investment from the Saudi public fund. The Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund also provided $600 million in bridge financing and invested in the SPAC deal as well. So, while this assembly plant may be expensive and may not be critical, it will most likely need to happen.\nLucid has ambitious plans to achieve $14 billion in revenue in 2025, and its current stock price at $29.17, which gives it a market cap of more than $46 billion, may already reflect those ambitions. Its market cap is roughly the same as Ford.\nFisker (FSR)\nFisker, which had its origins with Fisker Automotive, is an interesting story that ended in bankruptcy. Henrik Fisker originally co-founded Fisker Automotive in 2007. He was responsible for designing many premium cars such as the Aston Martin. Subsequently, Fisker Automotive had to deal with a Tesla lawsuit against Fisker Automotive alleging it stole Tesla's technology, a controversial $528.7 million conditional loan from the Department of Energy, a recall of its battery produced by A123, and the loss of several hundred vehicles in hurricane Sandy. Henrik Fisker resigned in March 2013 because of disagreements over business strategy and in November 2013, Fisker filed its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case.\nHowever, Henrik Fisker retained the Fisker brand and trademarks, and in 2016 he started another electric vehicle company named Fisker Inc. with the Fisker brand and trademarks. In 2019, Fisker shifted from developing a sports car with a solid-state battery to the Ocean SUV featuring a lithium-ion battery, which it later abandoned for a solid-state battery.\nFisker is positioning itself in a unique segment for those who want the most environmentally friendly EV. While this may be an early growth segment for EVs, it's difficult to estimate its eventual competitive advantage and the size of this environmentally-friendly market segment.\nThe Ocean is a crossover made of recycled metal and plastic with an expected base price of $37,499, and an expected lease of less than $400 a month. Fisker's plan is essentially a lease-only business model that lets customers keep a vehicle for years or return it at any time. It aims to source motors, batteries, and other components from technical partnerships with automakers and will outsource production from existing auto plants. Fisker is currently taking reservations at $250 for the Ocean. It also announced an agreement with Foxconn to jointly develop a vehicle pioneering a new market segment to be sold globally under the Fisker brand commencing in Q4 2023. at the end of 2022. Production will start at Magna Steyr's manufacturing facilities in Europe. At the end of February 2021, it had 12,467 cancellable reservations.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/924a617c90fc3276d7bdab8c64ebfdcf\" tg-width=\"744\" tg-height=\"389\">Fisker Ocean. Source: Fisker\nFisker went public using a SPAC (Spartan Energy). The original combination with SPAQ in October 2020 was valued at $2.9 billion with a cash investment of approximately $1 billion. The stock currently trades at approximately $21 per share, after reaching a high of $28.50, from the original price of $10, which is a market cap of $4.6 billion. Fisker projects $3.3 billion in revenue in 2023. It had almost $1 billion in cash at the end of 2020 and expected to use almost half of this in 2021: $250 million on operating expenses and $250 million in capital investments. If the Ocean is delayed into 2023, Fisker risks missing its revenue objective and will potentially need additional cash to complete development and launch.\nFaraday Future (PSAC)\nFaraday Future was originally established in May 2014 by Chinese businessman Jia Yueting. It is headquartered in Los Angeles and has offices in Silicon Valley, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu. Faraday Future also had a turbulent history. In 2016, it struggled financially, and in 2017 some key executives departed over a dispute about financial issues. They later founded Canoo.\nIn December 2018 the company announced layoffs due to a cash crunch and financial troubles. The company's founder Jia Yueting filed for personal bankruptcy in the United States' federal court in Delaware on October 14, 2019. Following Jia's personal bankruptcy, he decided to step down from his role as CEO of Faraday Future in order to assume a new position as the Chief Product and User Officer. He was replaced as CEO by Carsten Breitfeld, the former CEO at rival electric vehicle startup Byton.\nSomehow, Faraday was able to raise $2.3 billion in private funding over 5 rounds from a variety of investors. In early 2018, it received $1.5 billion in funding from an undisclosed investor from Hong Kong.\nFaraday's flagship product offering will be the FF 91, featuring 1,050 HP, 0-60 mph in less than 2.4 seconds, zero gravity seats with the largest 60-degree reclining angles, and a user experience designed to create a mobile, connected, and luxurious living space. The FF 91 is targeted to launch in 2022.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e38bfb3211c72bb73bc26f2ebe296fe\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"854\">FF 91. Source: Faraday Future\nIts strategic partners include one of China's top three OEMs and a critical Chinese city, which the company believes will help establish its presence in the Chinese vehicle market.\nFaraday Future plans several cars based on its Variable Platform Architecture. FF 91 is the first production vehicle and flagship model. Pricing will range between $120,000 and upwards of $200,000, which places it against formidable opponents. Faraday Future is already looking forward to expanding its range with a pair of smaller models named FF 81 and FF 71. The FF 81 is planned to be priced at $75,000 to 95,000 with a 2023 release. The FF 71 is planned to be priced at $45,000 to $65,000 with a planned release of 2024.\nThe Primary Manufacturing Facility for FF 91 is in Hanford, CA with contract manufacturing for future models in Gunsan, South Korea.\nFaraday Future is planning high-Level automation with a Level-3 capable system using a redundant safety architecture based on NVIDIA Xavier System-on-a-chip. It will be capable of highway auto-drive and hardware ready for advanced auto-drive. It is targeting full autonomous valet parking &amp; summon in any parking lot or structure. Eventually, it expects full auto-drive, including full 360˚ sensor coverage for advanced auto-drive &amp; auto-park features.\nIn January 2021, Faraday Future announced that the company would go public through a reverse merger with the special purpose acquisition company Property Solutions Acquisition Corp. (PSAC). The combined company will be valued at $3.4 billion. Faraday Future is expected to set up contract manufacturing operations in China through their partnership with Geely. Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn is also expected to serve as an additional strategic partner.\nFaraday Future projects $10.5 billion in revenue in 2024 and $21.5 billion in 2025. Revenue is expected to start in 2022 with the delivery of 2,400 vehicles for $504 million. Most likely these projections could prove to be optimistic. At a current stock price of approximately $12.80, it has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nLordstown Motors (RIDE)\nLordstown Motors based in Lordstown, Ohio, was originally founded in 2018 by Steve Burns, the former CEO of Workhorse Group. The company licensed technology from Workhorse in return for royalties and a 10% ownership. Lordstown is named after the famous GM Lordstown manufacturing plant, which it acquired in November 2019 in an unusual transaction. GM announced that it was closing the plant and was under a great deal of pressure for that decision. So, GM \"sold\" the plant to a company that was renamed Lordstown for an estimated $20 million that it loaned to the acquiring company. Subsequently, the sale was redefined to be part of a $75 million investment by GM, of which $50 million was an in-kind exchange for the plant.\nLordstown went public through the SPAC DiamondPeak Holdings Corp. in 2020. It currently has more than 400 employees.\nIts first product is the Lordstown Endurance, a full-sized EV pickup truck. Lordstown is positioning Endurance for the pickup fleet market segment. The expected price is $52,000+, and it claimed to have more than 100,000 pre-orders by January 2021. However, a recent research article published by a short seller claimed \"Our research has revealed that Lordstown's order book consists of fake or entirely non-binding orders, from customers that generally do not even have fleets of vehicles.\" Lordstown is disputing that article.\nIt believes the fleet pickup market segment is underserved with no current EV-focused competition. It estimates that the full-sized pick-up truck fleet market is 1.2 million vehicles per year in the U.S., but it's more fragmented than other truck fleets. Pickup \"fleets\" tend to be much smaller and local, so there may not be much of a market distinction for a small company buying several EV pickups from a traditional auto dealer. About half of the total U.S. pickup market is classified as fleet sales, meaning more than one.\nEven though Lordstown is targeting the commercial fleet market, it is a similar product to the Ford EV F-150. So I classify it in the consumer EV category. It is a class 2 vehicle. Lordstown also may enter the SUV market in the longer-term.\nThe Endurance will compete against future models from Rivian and Tesla, as well as Ford and GM in ICE pick-ups and their upcoming EV pick-ups. Ford plans on selling its EV F-150 in mid-2022. Initial production of the Endurance is expected in the second half of 2021, so it may have a short market advantage. Nevertheless, it forecasts selling 65,000 vehicles in 2023 and 107,000 in 2024. These estimates could be a large percentage of the EV pick-up market in those years.\nAt the SPAC merger, the implied valuation for Lordstown was $1.6 billion, including a $500 million PIPE and the $75 million by GM. Lordstown's financial projections appear to be aggressive. It projects to start shipping the Endurance in late 2021 with projected revenue in 2022 of $1.7 billion, increasing to $5.8 billion in 2024. Its stock price at approximately $13.60 values the company at a market cap of approximately $2.2 billion. The value of the company depends on the likelihood of achieving its projections.\nA fleet sales strategy makes sense for Lordstown since it would be too expensive to build a retail sales and service capability. However, it's not clear that this will become a distinct competitive advantage. Some small fleets may still prefer to buy their EV pickups from established local dealers with service capabilities.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nCanoo started as Evelozcity in 2017 and rebranded as Canoo in the spring of 2019. Canoo is a Los Angeles-based company that develops electric vehicles. It has over 350 employees. Canoo has designed a modular electric platform purpose-built to deliver maximum vehicle interior space, which is adaptable to support a wide range of vehicle applications for consumers and businesses. Canoo expects to launch its first consumer model in 2022, simply named the Canoo that will be available by subscription, followed shortly after by a multi-purpose delivery vehicle and a sports vehicle, each built off of the same underlying platform. Canoo went public using a SPAC (Hennessy Capital Acquisition) and now trades as GOEV.\nCanoo's all-electric skateboard-like platform is designed to support both consumer retail and commercial vehicle configurations. The EV leverages Canoo's flat skateboard architecture for a high level of usable interior space. Its commercial vehicle program, expected in 2023, addresses a projected $50B+ last-mile delivery market with an EV platform that maximizes cargo volume.\nHyundai Motor Group said it would jointly develop an electric vehicle platform with the company.\nCanoo's platform strategy is interesting. It could be used as an EV platform for custom fleets of delivery vehicles. It has no AV development, but it claims to be \"AV Ready\" which could be useful for AV companies wanting to build custom AV delivery fleets.\nIts all-electric multi-purpose delivery vehicle is expected to be priced starting at approximately $33,000. It is based on Canoo's proprietary electric platform and will be offered in two initial size variants, with others to follow. Limited availability will begin in 2022, with scaled production and launch planned for 2023. Customers can pre-order the multi-purpose delivery vehicle for a refundable deposit of $100 per vehicle\nIt plans to offer two multi-purpose delivery vehicles: the MPDV1 and the larger MPDV2. The first has a 200-foot cargo volume and a range of 130-200 miles. It offers more capacity than today's ICE delivery vehicles at an affordable price with urban mobility enabled by a space-efficient footprint. The vehicle is also designed to fit within many height-restricted areas like parking garages.\nThe MPDV2 has a cargo volume of 450 feet and a range of 90-190 miles. Its roof and step-in height enable individuals to easily walk-in the vehicle and accommodate a standing position while inside.\nThe original SPAC transaction provided approximately $600 million, with a pro forma equity value of approximately $2.4 billion. Like other SPAC mergers, its stock price has fluctuated. It currently trades at about $15.90 per share for a market cap of approximately $3.7 billion. Canoo projects $2.0 billion in revenue in 2025 from about $500 million in engineering services, $1.2 billion from its consumer vehicle subscriptions, and the remainder from its commercial program. Canoo expects revenue of more than $300 million in 2022 after the launch of its lifestyle consumer vehicle.\nSince its first products are aimed at consumers, as is most of its forecasted 2025 revenue, I categorize it primarily as a consumer EV company. However, I think the design of that Canoo vehicle may not attract enough customers. More importantly, its subscription service way of selling its EV to consumers is risky. I think it has more potential in the commercial market, however, a dual strategy (consumer and commercial) is challenging. I like its skateboard platform design and that could prove to be a competitive advantage.\nRivian\nAlthough not yet public, I include Rivian because it has plans for an IPO as soon as Sept 2021, although it could slip into 2022. There are rumors that the company is targeting a market valuation of approximately $50B. Rivian has already raised more than $8 billion to date from Amazon, Ford, T. Rowe Price, and others.\nRivian has developed and vertically integrated a connected electric platform that can be flexibly applied to a range of applications, including the company's adventure products, as well as B2B products such as the Amazon last-mile delivery vans. The company's initial products, the R1T and R1S, provide a combination of performance, off-road capability, and utility. These vehicles will be produced at Rivian's manufacturing plant in Normal, Ill., with customer deliveries expected to begin in summer 2021. The launch of the R1S three-row electric SUV will follow in August.\nAdditional lower-priced models are being planned. The expected R2 series would include at least two smaller electric vehicles to coincide with the smaller platform, then another platform for R3.\nCommercial Delivery EV Companies\nEV truck companies differ based on the type of truck they are developing. The technology and markets are very different, so I separate them into two categories. The first category includes commercial delivery vehicles.\nCompanies making EV delivery vehicles have some major advantages that could make them good investments. First, delivery vehicles typically travel less than 250 miles during a day, so they can be conveniently recharged overnight. Secondly, they are typically sold in large quantities to fleets. This means that building a retail sales infrastructure is not necessary. It only requires a small salesforce. In addition, maintenance can also be provided at the fleet's operational center, so not as many service centers are required.\nThe disadvantage in this market is that there are a relatively small number of customers that buy in large volumes, so if the EV manufacturer can't get enough large customers, they may not be able to stay in business. GM estimates the combined market opportunity for parcel and food delivery, as well as reverse logistics, in the U.S. will be more than $850 billion by 2025.\nThe commercial market is expected to be a major growth area for EVs. Other start-up automakers like Rivian as well as legacy automakers such as Ford, Daimler, and GM have announced plans to enter the segment. GM recently announced its BrightDrop ecosystem for commercial customers that includes an all-new electric delivery van, the EV600 available by the end of 2021, as well as an integrated autonomous pallet and related services.\nThis group of EV companies focuses primarily on commercial delivery. In general, these are in the light-duty trucks category, although it also includes some medium-duty trucks. This generally includes the following commercial truck classes:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 1: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 0-6,000 pounds or 0-2,722 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 2: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 6,001-10,000 pounds or 2,722-4,536 kilograms.1</li>\n <li>Class 3: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 10,001-14,000 pounds or 4,536-6,350 kilograms.</li>\n</ul>\nIt can also include somewhat larger medium-duty EV delivery trucks:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.</li>\n</ul>\nEV delivery trucks also have an advantage over ICE vehicles because they can have a greater delivery storage space. Smaller buses and transit vehicles are also included in this category.\nLast-mile package delivery is not an immediate-term autonomous vehicle opportunity because it requires a delivery person to be on the truck anyway.\nWorkhorse Group (WKHS)\nWorkhorse has been a public company for ten years. Originally AMP Electric Vehicles, it was established in 2007 as a developmental-stage vehicle electrification company, focusing on conversions. AMP Electric Vehicles went public in 2010 trading on the OTC market under the AMPD symbol. When the economic benefits of conversion became less certain, it pivoted away from passenger vehicles and began to focus on electrifying commercial vehicles. AMP acquired the Workhorse brand and the Workhorse custom chassis assembly plant in Union City. In March of 2013, AMP formally changed its name to Workhorse Group Incorporated.\nThe Company designs and builds a last-mile delivery electric vehicle. The C-Series EVs cover the larger size of commercial delivery vehicles in Classes 3-5. As part of its solutions, it also develops cloud-based, real-time telematics performance monitoring systems. It sells its vehicles to fleet customers directly and through its primary distributor, Ryder Systems. It is currently focused on bringing the C-Series electric delivery truck to market and fulfilling the existing backlog of orders.\nThe C-Series looks like a viable EV replacement for the 350,000 last-mile delivery vehicles sold in the U.S. annually. It recently announced an increased driving range from 100 miles to 160, which should open more market opportunities. It has a viable short-term go-to-market strategy selling fleets to delivery companies. It currently has test vehicles with UPS, DHL, FedEx, Amazon, and Walmart.\nWorkhorse recently lost out on the United States Postal Services Next Generation Delivery Vehicle project, however, it is in the process of challenging this decision. Additionally, its investment in Lordstown also provides an indirect investment opportunity. On November 7, 2019, the Company entered a transaction with Lordstown Motors to grant LMC a perpetual and worldwide license to certain intellectual property relating to its W-15 electric pickup truck platform and related technology in exchange for royalties, equity interest (approximately 10%) in LMC, and other considerations. This was a $320 million asset for Workhorse at the end of 2020.\nWorkhorse received a significant increase in orders in Q4/2020 but built just seven trucks in the fourth quarter due to production systems and supply chain issues. Workhorse plans to continue to take it slow, striving to build three of its composite-body battery-electric trucks a day in March with a plan to reach 10 trucks a day by the end of June. This makes its original 2021 goal of producing 1,800 trucks unlikely. It partnered with Hitachi and Hitachi Capital America (\"HCA\") to improve the Company's manufacturing, operational, and supply chain capabilities as well as to develop a national dealer network to support Workhorse's sales with vehicle financing options for both dealers and customers.\nWorkhorse has a market cap of approximately $1.9 billion. While Workhorse had ongoing revenue, unlike many other new EV companies, its revenue is still insignificant. It had a revenue of $1.4 million in 2020 and $377,000 in 2019. It has a backlog of over 8,000 vehicles but doesn't expect to be able to build many of those in 2021. It raised $270 million in capital over several financings, providing the Company with additional capital to build its backlog. It had cash of $215 million as of March 1, 2021. Because Workhorse is a traditional public company, it hasn't made long-term financial projections like SPAC-based companies.\nElectric Last Mile (FIII)\nElectric Last Mile, based in Troy Michigan, was founded by Jason Luo, former CEO of Ford China before it was acquired by China's Ningbo Joyson Electronic for $920 million in 2016, including James Taylor, former CEO of GM's Hummer brand and former CEO of electric car maker Karma Automotive. Taylor serves as the company's top executive with Luo as the company's chairman.\nThe company plans to launch a small electric delivery van (class 1-2), called the UD-1, in the third quarter of 2021, and then introduce an Urban Utility vehicle (Class 2-3) in 2022. These are expected to compete with Workhorse, Rivian, Canoo, as well as the Ford eTransit and the GMC BV1, none of which is expected to be a Class 1 vehicle.\nThe company says it has 30,000 preorders for its van, representing more than $1 billion in sales. Electric Last Miles vehicles will be based on Sokon's commercial van made in China through a joint venture with Dongfeng Automobile Co Ltd. in order to accelerate development time.\nElectric Last Mile (ELM) is expected to manufacture the vans in a former General Motors Co. Hummer plant in Mishawaka, Ind., that the company is acquiring from China's Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co. Ltd. The plant has the capacity to produce 100,000 vehicles annually with plans to build approximately 4,000 UD-1 vans by the end of 2021. The UD-1 has a starting price of $32,500 and a range of 150 miles. The battery for the vehicle is expected to be supplied by the Chinese battery company CATL.\nELM believes that it has a competitive advantage because its first vehicle, the ELM Urban Delivery, is scheduled to be available in 2021. It is based on a proven, existing platform developed and sold by Sokon Group in the Asian market, where there are 30,000 of these electric delivery vehicles driving 1.5 million miles every day. At the close of the business combination, ELM will be an independent, U.S. company producing electric vehicles in the U.S. with Sokon Group providing access to its know-how, parts supply, and field and service data.\nELM expects that the Urban Delivery vehicle will be the first electric delivery vehicle coming to market in the class 1 category (GVW of 6,000 lbs or less) in the U.S. It will also have 35% more carrying volume compared to similar ICE delivery vehicles, a critical part of the value proposition. It also anticipates that its price and greater carrying volume will allow it to take market share from the class 2 category of vehicles as well.\nIts crossover product portfolio strategy targets commercial delivery vehicles spanning from class 1 to class 3, which represents over 80% of the last mile market.\nELM anticipates $122 million in revenue in 2021, rapidly increasing to $3 billion in 2025. The price of FIII stock increased immediately following its announcement with Electric Last Mile, rising more than 40% to $14.50, but now it has dropped closer to the original deal price to $10.25 for a market cap of approximately $1.5 billion.\nGreenPower Motor Company (GP)\nGreenPower Motor Company Inc. is a Canadian battery-electric bus manufacturer with multiple models of high- and low-floor vehicles, including transit buses, school buses, and shuttles. GreenPower offers commercial vehicles for delivery, public transit, schools, vanpooling, micro-transit, shuttles, and is developing a capability of autonomous operation. It went public on August 28, 2020.\nIn 2014 GreenPower launched its first purpose-built, battery-electric bus, the EV350, 40-foot transit bus. GreenPower received its first order in 2017 for ten EV350s from the City of Porterville, California.\nGreenPower's electric buses are purpose-built and designed to be all-electric, allowing it to put the battery and propulsion system in optimized locations that provide weight and structural advantages. Its primary EV is the EV Star with more than 120 vehicles delivered. It comes in several variations:\n<ul>\n <li>EV Star - Up to 19 passengers</li>\n <li>EV Star Plus - Up to 24 passengers</li>\n <li>EV Star ADA - Passenger and curbside lift for ADA</li>\n <li>EV Star Cargo - 5,000 pounds of load</li>\n <li>EV Star Cargo Plus - 570 cubic feet of cargo space.</li>\n</ul>\nIts EV school bus seats up to 90 students and has a range of up to 150 miles.\nGreenPower had revenue of $13.5 million in 2020 It has about $21 million in cash. It's an interesting alternative since it is already shipping EVs, has revenue, and also has a lower market cap of less than $1 billion. Since it did a traditional IPO, it hasn't published longer-term financial forecasts.\nArrival (CIIC)\nArrival was founded in 2015 in London to make a variety of commercial electric vehicles. It has approximately 1,200 employees across 11 cities in 8 countries. In November 2020, Arrival and the SPAC CIIG entered into a business combination agreement with an implied valuation of $5.39 billion.\nArrival plans on releasing four commercial EVs over the next few years.\n<ul>\n <li>Q4/2021: An electric bus for 8-125 passengers and a range of 240-400km</li>\n <li>Q3/2022: An electric delivery van with a payload of 975-2,000kg and a range of 150-340km</li>\n <li>2022: A larger electric van with a payload of 4,000 kg and a range of 190-400km</li>\n <li>2023: a small vehicle platform with a range of 100-300km.</li>\n</ul>\nThis mix provides a nice diversified portfolio of EVs. Arrival claims to have received orders from UPS for 10,000 vans. It plans a unique flexible manufacturing approach using micro-factories with each projected to manufacture 10,000 vans per year. All of its vehicles use a modular skateboard electric platform.\nArrival ambitiously projects $14.1 billion in revenue in 2024. Half of that revenue is expected from delivery vans, 22% from buses, and the rest from the large van and its small vehicle platform. With CIIC's stock price at $24.80 per share, Arrival's current market cap is relatively high at approximately $15.0 billion. Justifying its market cap depends on its ability to release, sell, and produce its four commercial EVs.\nProterra (ACTC)\nProterra is a commercial electric vehicle company with over a decade of production experience. The Company has designed an end-to-end, flexible technology platform that claims to deliver higher performance and a low total cost of ownership to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end customers.\nProterra, Inc., was originally founded in Golden, Colorado, by Dale Hill in 2004. Later the company wanted to take the lead in creating zero-emission, U.S.-based transit buses. In 2010 it moved its manufacturing plant from Golden, Colorado to Greenville, South Carolina. In 2015, Proterra was awarded a $3 million grant from the California Energy Commission to fund the design, development, and construction of the company's battery-electric transit bus manufacturing line in the City of Industry, California. It moved its headquarters from Greenville, South Carolina, to Burlingame, California, in October 2015. Proterra raised more than $600 million in funding.\nIt is going public through the SPAC ArcLight (ACTC) with a pro forma valuation of $1.6 billion. Upon completion of the transaction, Proterra expects to have up to $825 million in cash to fund growth initiatives, including R&amp;D and the expansion of its next-generation battery program.\nProterra has three complementary businesses:\n<ul>\n <li>Proterra Powered: Delivering battery systems and electrification solutions to commercial vehicle manufacturers</li>\n <li>Proterra Transit:Providing an electric transit bus OEMs</li>\n <li>Proterra Energy:Offering turnkey charging and energy management solutions.</li>\n</ul>\nThe company's battery systems have been proven in more than 16 million service miles driven by its fleet of transit vehicles and validated through partnerships with commercial vehicle OEMs. Proterra has produced and delivered more than 300 megawatt-hours of battery systems, more than 550 heavy-duty electric transit buses, and installed 54 megawatts of charging systems.\nProterra expected $193 million of revenue in 2020, with an estimated $750 million in existing orders and backlog. It projects $2.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with about 1/3 coming from its Transit business, and 2/3 From Powered &amp; Energy. At ACTC's current stock price of $17.85, Proterra has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nRivian\nRivian (see earlier description in consumer retail) will also compete in the commercial delivery market. It has been working with Amazon (a major investor) to build large electric delivery vans for Prime. Developed specifically for Amazon, a small fleet of Prime vans is on the road now, testing deliveries to customers and gathering feedback. In late fall, it could grow to a large fleet as Rivian ramps up the volume.\nThe EV range of 150 miles is tailored to Amazon's use cycle to optimize the size, weight, and cost of the commercial vehicle. Rivian has three sizes of batteries, but Amazon is starting with just one of them.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nSee the previous summary under consumer retail EV.\nMedium and Long-Haul Trucking EV Companies\nCompanies developing medium- and long-haul EV trucks face a more difficult challenge with battery range. These trucks haul much more weight than commercial delivery vehicles and because they are designed for long distances, they can't stop every 200-300 miles for recharging.\nFor this reason, many of these companies are using unique hybrid technologies for their trucks. The EV trucks in this category are primarily heavy-duty but also include some medium-duty trucks and specialty vehicles. A couple of the companies focus on retrofitting trucks to be electric.\nMedium-Duty Trucks\nThe medium-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 4, 5, and 6:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 6: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 19,501-26,000 pounds or 8,846-11,793 kilograms.1</li>\n</ul>\nHeavy-Duty Trucks\nThe heavy-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 7 and 8:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 7: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 26,001 to 33,000 pounds or 11,794-14,969 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 8: This class of trucks has a GVWR of greater than 33,001 pounds or 14,969 kilograms and includes all tractor-trailers.</li>\n</ul>\nThe Tesla Semi is a battery vehicle planned for a range of 300 or 500 miles and a speed of 60 MPH with 80,000 lbs of cargo. Tesla plans to start shipping the Semi later this year when it expects to have sufficient cell volume to meet its needs with the production of its 4680 battery pack.\nNikola(NASDAQ:NKLA)\nNikola has been a very controversial company. Founded in 2015, it originally had two different strategies. Its primary strategy is to lease fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) Class-8 heavy trucks and provide the refueling infrastructure to corporate customers. Its second strategy was to develop the Badger EV truck using GM technology.\nNikola originally merged with a SPAC to go public, at an enterprise value of approximately $3.3 billion. On June 6th, 2020, its market cap jumped to more than $30 billion, then later it dropped because of problems with its originally planned deal with GM.\nNikola originally expected a deal with General Motors that included the production of the Nikola Badger EV pickup truck. The proposed arrangement was that GM would take a $2 billion equity stake in Nikola and in return would engineer and produce the Badger. In November 2020, GM and Nikola scrapped the original arrangement. Now it appears that GM will supply Nikola with only its Hydrotec hydrogen fuel-cell technology to integrate into the EV manufacturer's commercial class 7 and class 8 zero-emission semi-trucks. So, the Badger is probably dead.\nNikola now sees semi-trucks as the company's \"core business\" and fuel cells as an increasingly important segment of the semi-truck market thanks to their efficiency in weight and consumption. It expects to begin testing by the end of 2021.\nIt has received pre-orders from Anheuser-Busch and a few other companies, but it doesn't expect deliveries until 2023. Hydrogen fueling stations are key to its strategy, both providing a source of revenue and necessary fueling infrastructure for the trucks to operate, but they also cost a lot. In its March 2020 investor deck, Nikola said a single station capable of fueling 210 trucks a day would cost $16.6 million. Its initial planned network of 700 stations would cost roughly $11.6 billion.\nNikola was also accused of misrepresentation, and its executive chairman and founder stepped down.\nAt the time of the SPAC merger, it projected an optimistic forecast of more than $3 billion in revenue by 2024, with a net income of $145 million. Most of that revenue was expected to come from its Badger truck, which is no longer in the plans. Yet its market cap is still almost $6 billion.\nHyliion (HYLN)\nHyliion, founded in 2015 in Austin, went public in October 2020 through the SPAC Tortoise Acquisition Corp. (SHLL). In March 2019, automotive parts manufacturer Dana Inc. made an equity investment into Hyliion, and together they are manufacturing and marketing Class 8 EVs to Dana's customers, including Volvo, Navistar, and Peterbilt.\nHyliion's strategy is unique, and a very different strategy from Nikola. Essentially it generates electricity onboard the truck using compressed natural gas (CNG). This should be a benefit for longer-range trucking. Hyliion's Hypertruck concept involves an all-electric drivetrain utilizing Dana's electric motor, inverter, and axle technologies. The truck's batteries are fueled by onboard tanks of CNG. With some 700 CNG stations already operating nationwide, it believes that there no need to build out expensive superchargers or hydrogen infrastructure.\nKuwait-based logistics company, Agility, has already placed an order for 1,000 Hypertrucks with initial deliveries targeted in 2022. Combined with a fully electric drivetrain and a natural gas-powered onboard generator to recharge the battery, the Hypertruck ERX will provide more than 1,000 miles of range.\nHyliion will eventually compete with Nikola (FCEV) and the Tesla battery-based Semi, but it plans to have a longer range and lower operating costs. Its HyperTruck ERX is expected to be available in 2021. It also has a hybrid-electric truck.\nThe combination with SHLL had an estimated market cap of about $1.5 billion, with approximately $530 million going to the company, including a $325 million fully committed PIPE. At approximately $13.50 per share, its current market cap is approximately $2.2 billion, significantly down from its peak. Hyliion projects $2 billion in revenue in 2024, which it claims is only about 2% of the addressable market.\nXL Fleet (XL)\nXL Fleet is a 10-year old company that went public through the SPAC Pivotal. XL is different because it provides fleet electrification modifications for ICE trucks across a wide range of vehicle classes (class 2-5) and types. It has over 200 of the largest commercial and municipal fleets as customers, with more than 3,200 XL systems deployed and over 130 million miles driven by customers to date. XL's customer base includes FedEx, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Verizon, the City of Boston, Seattle Fire Department, Yale University, and Harvard University.\nXL's business model is essentially retrofitting existing trucks to be hybrids and then later expanding into fully electric truck conversions. It claims to be creating a fully integrated platform for this. It remains to be seen if the retrofitting business will continue to grow or will it diminish when more trucks are designed and manufactured with EV capabilities.\nUnlike some other EV companies that have no revenue yet because they are still developing products, XL is more of a small company doing low-volume retrofits. It had $7.2 million in revenue in 2019, $21 million in 2020, and estimates $76 million in 2021, but it forecasts $1.3 billion in revenue in 2024 in its investor presentation. It plans to do this by expanding its product line from hybrid to plug-in hybrid to fully electric across a broader range of trucks. It claims to have a $220 million sales pipeline for the next 12 months.\nShort-seller, Muddy Waters, claimed after talking to former XL Fleet employees, that it believed the company significantly exaggerated its order backlog, that the return on investment for the company's products was likely negative, and that it would not be able to compete with big car makers on electrification. The company thoroughly refuted these claims.\nThe original enterprise valuation was approximately $1.4 billion at a $10 share price for the merger. Its price jumped by about 35% but has since gone back down to $12.40 for a market cap of about $1.8 billion. Although XL Fleet has revenue and other EV companies don't, this may not be an advantage. It appears to be a small company for many years that has gone public at a high valuation with grand plans. The risks are in its ability to make a jump from $76 million in 2021 to $1.3 billion in 2024, as well as the question about retrofitting being replaced by new EV trucks by then.\nXos (NGAC)\nXos Trucks specializes in the field of manufacturing fully electric commercial vehicles. It features a software platform that is designed to accommodate an extensive variety of medium-duty bodies, wheelbase, and range requirements up to 200 miles. It was founded in 2016 and headquartered in North Hollywood, California. It received $20 million of investment in 2020 and now is going public through a merger with the SPAC ExtGen Acquisition Corporation (NGAC) at an estimated proforma value of $1.965 billion.\nIts focus is on medium- and heavy-duty last mile and return-to-base segments (class 5/6, class 6/7, and class 7/8) commercial fleets and specialty vehicles. Some vehicles are currently in production and in regular on-road operations with key fleet customers, and it claimed 6,000 unit orders in backlog.\nIts MD-platform is for classes 5-6 for pickup and delivery. Its HD X-Platform is an adaptable chassis for highway, vocational, and severe work conditions. Its market is for customers with highly predictable routes that allow for batteries designed for a more limited range. A significantly larger frame and smaller battery pack allow for reduced density.\nXos has a bundled all-in-one offering that allows fleets to access all the tools and services they need to go electric with a single point of contact at a fixed monthly expense.\nXos had $3 million in revenue in 2020 and estimates $14 million in 2021. However, it forecasts $5.2 billion in revenue in 2025. At the current stock price of $10.30, its market cap is approximately $2 billion, about the same as its original SPAC transaction.\nLion Electric (NGA)\nLion Electric is a Canadian company founded by Marc Bédard in 2008. Its focus is to be a leader in designing, developing, and manufacturing purpose-built urban electric vehicles; vehicles that are specifically designed as delivery trucks, refuse trucks, bucket trucks, moving trucks, school buses, and shuttle buses. It has over 300 all-electric vehicles on the road today.\nIn November 2020, it announced that it was going public through the SPAC NGA. The transaction had an estimated pro forma enterprise value of $1.5 billion.\nIt plans on seven new truck models and one new school bus, for a total of 15 all-electric vehicles, representing a full line-up from class 5 to class 8 electric trucks and a full line-up of electric school buses. Its vehicles are produced at its existing manufacturing plant, which has the capacity for the production of up to 2,500 vehicles per year. It intends to open a new plant in the U.S. capable of delivering over 20,000 Lion trucks and buses per year by 2022.\nIts all-electric class 6 and class 8 commercial urban trucks combine power, comfort, and modern technology. Custom-built chassis and cabin designed specifically for an all-electric heavy-duty vehicle. The LionC is an all-electric Type C school bus manufactured in North America. The body and chassis were specifically designed to deliver optimal performance. The LionM is an all-electric midi/minibus that meets paratransit and public transportation requirements. Created and designed specifically for the paratransit market, the is spacious and offers unique features that provide enhanced security and accessibility to the end-users.\nLion Electric had $29 million in revenue in 2020 and expects $204 million in 2021. It forecasts revenue to jump to $3.6 billion a few years later in 2024. Its current market cap is approximately $3.6 billion based on its current stock price of $18.33.\nLightning eMotors (GIK)\nLightning eMotors, formerly Lightning Systems, was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Loveland, Colorado. It provides fleet electrification for familiar commercial vehicle platforms by retrofitting them with its electric powertrains. Lightning eMotors produces electric fleet medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including delivery trucks, shuttle buses, passenger vans, ambulances, bucket trucks, chassis-cab models, and city transit buses. It focuses on urban commercial zero-emission vehicles with a full range of class 3 through class 7 battery-electric and fuel-cell electric vehicles.\nLighting eMotors helps commercial fleets achieve their sustainability goals by offering zero-emission battery-electric vans, trucks, and buses based on familiar, proven vehicles from manufacturers such as Ford and GM. It works with customers, to help them identify their unique commercial electric vehicle, charging, and grant support needs.\nThe Lightning products include integrated all-electric powertrains for the Ford Transit 350HD passenger and cargo vans, Ford E-450 shuttle bus and cutaway models, Ford F-59 step/food van, Ford F-550 cargo trucks and buses, Chevrolet 6500XD Low Cab Forward model, and 30-foot, 35-foot, and 40-foot transit buses.\nLightning has 120 vehicles on the road, and 1,500 vehicles already on order from customers. In addition to making vehicles and powertrains, Lightning also provides a full suite of charging solutions for customers.\nThe deal with GIK has an enterprise value of $650 million, although there is also an Earnout of 20.0% of total pro forma shares outstanding to Lightning eMotors shareholders if the stock crosses certain price thresholds.\nAt the current price, of $11.73, GIK has a market cap of approximately $1 billion, a little more than the original transaction valuation. Similar to XL Fleet, Lightning has the risk that retrofitting may only be an interim business opportunity until more EV trucks are produced.\nPublic Chinese EV Companies\nChina will be the biggest EV market opportunity, and EV start-ups may do better there because there isn't as much entrenched competition from domestic auto companies. China is already the largest EV market in the world, with almost a million EVs sold in 2019. Its EV market represents almost half of the global EV sales volume and is much larger than the U.S. market.\nThe Chinese government has ambitions to become a global leader in new energy vehicles. Soon after the coronavirus outbreak subsided within the country, Chinese authorities announced new policies to support the auto and electric vehicle industries.\nThese Chinese companies are traded through American depository shares (ADS) that contain certain risks. There are financial reporting and transparency risks with these companies, and on top of that, the newer companies are being classified as \"emerging growth\" companies that are already exempt from certain transparency requirements set out in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Like the previous EV stock, these stocks have also been very volatile.\nIn addition to legacy auto manufacturers like BYD, there are also three Chinese EV companies that are publicly traded through American depositary shares.\nBYD Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:BYDDY)\nBYD, which means build your dreams, is the automotive subsidiary of the Chinese multinational BYD Co Ltd. It was founded in January 2003, following BYD Company's acquisition of Tsinchuan Automobile Company. The company produces automobiles, buses, electric bicycles, forklifts, rechargeable batteries, and trucks. The current model range of automobiles includes electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and petrol-engined vehicles. Thirteen years ago, on the advice of his famously skeptical lieutenant, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett made a $232 million investment in BYD, a relatively unknown Chinese car company.\nBy parlaying BYD's rechargeable battery technology into a fast-growing carmaking operation, it gained a foothold in the fledgling electric vehicle market, building longer-lasting batteries and cheaper vehicles than American and Japanese manufacturers were managing to do at the time. In BYD, Buffett and Munger believed they had found a company with a shot at one day becoming the largest player in a global automobile market that was inevitably going electric.\nBYD's start to 2021 was strong with 19,871 plug-in electric cars sold in January in China, including hybrid plug-ins. That was a big increase over 2020 but not as much as 2019.\nLI Auto (LI)\nLixiang, formerly known as Chehejia (\"Car and Home\"), was founded in 2015 and went public in the U.S. on July 30th, 2020. It is a Beijing-based electric-vehicle startup with vertically integrated manufacturing. It designs, researches, manufactures, sells, and offers services featuring a few models of electric vehicles.\nThe company's SUVs are hybrids of a sort. They use electric motors (one on the front axle and one on the rear), but those motors are powered by a combination of a 40.5kWh battery packanda 1.2-liter turbocharged engine paired to a 45-liter fuel tank and a 100kW electric generator, which generates power for the battery pack in real-time. The idea is that the car can be driven for about 100 miles on battery power alone, but it has a total range of nearly 500 miles when leveraging the combustion engine generator.\nThe Company's primary product is an SUV under its brand Li ONE. It also sells peripheral products and provides related services, such as charging stalls, vehicle internet connection services, and extended lifetime warranties. Li Auto is looking to sell a variety of SUVs built on its hybrid technology that range from around $21,000 to about $70,000. The company started shipping its first model in late 2019. It's a midsize SUV is well-appointed and has lots of touchscreens and technology. A full-size premium version is planned for release in 2022.\nDeliveries of Li ONEs were 14,464 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a 67.0% quarter-over-quarter increase and setting a new quarterly record. Deliveries for the full year 2020 reached 32,624 vehicles. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $635 million.\nLI auto went public on July 30th, 2020, raising $1.1 billion at an initial price of $15.50 per share but quickly reached almost $24. It is currently valued at approximately $37 billion at a price of approximately $25.72 per share.\nXPeng (XPEV)\nXiaopeng (XPeng) Motors is a Chinese electric vehicle and technology company that designs and manufactures smart cars. It was founded in 2015 and went public on August 27, 2020, using American depository shares, raising about $1 billion. To date, it has raised about $2.6 billion.\nXPeng aims its EVs at technology-savvy middle-class Chinese consumers, with prices ranging from $22,000 to $45,000 after government subsidies. In some ways, it is a Tesla knock-off at a much lower price. XPeng started production of the G3 in November 2018, and as of July 31, 2020, delivered 18,741. It started production of the P7 and began delivery in May 2020, and as of July 31, 2020, it had delivered 1,966 EVs. The P7 has a range of more than 400 miles. It plans to launch a third Smart EV, a sedan, in 2021. The G3 was among the top-three best-selling electric SUVs in China in 2019.\nXPeng is interesting because it has a platform strategy and is moving aggressively into autonomous driving. It uses a platform strategy to expand product offerings by launching one Smart EV model each year to broaden the addressable market. It builds new models on two highly flexible Smart EV platforms, called David and Edward, respectively. The David platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,600 millimeters to 2,800 millimeters, and the Edward platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,800 millimeters to 3,100 millimeters. It also adopted a platform approach for software systems.\nXPeng claims to be developing an autonomous driving capability for its EVs. The P7 is the first production vehicle to feature the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Xavier system-on-a-chip (SoC) autonomous driving platform. The company's Smart Electric Platform Architecture (SEPA) runs on 2 chips - NVIDIA for the XPILOT and Qualcomm's Snapdragon™ 820A for intelligent services and infotainment, including cameras inside and outside, radars, HD-map, and ultrasonic sensors. Like Tesla, it claims it can create sufficiently-autonomous driving without lidar.\nTo enhance brand recognition and allow more people to experience its Smart EVs, it deployed a small number of Smart EVs in a ride-hailing service in Guangzhou on a trial basis, but it has no current plan to scale up a ride-hailing service.\nXpeng sees first-quarter 2021 deliveries rising 450% year-over-year to 12,500 vehicles. Revenues are expected to increase 533% from a year ago. The company didn't provide bottom-line estimates for the quarter, but will likely post another net loss as it ramps up manufacturing, invests in R&amp;D, and builds out a new manufacturing plant set to open in 2022.\nXpeng reported selling 12,964 vehicles in Q4 2020, up 303% from a year ago. It delivered a total of 27,041 vehicles in 2020, up 112%. It makes the P7 sedan, a rival to the made-in-China Tesla Model 3, and the small G3 SUV.\nThe stock opened on August 27, 2020 at a price of $15 and a valuation of $11 billion, but its stock jumped more than 40% shortly after. Its current valuation is about $35 billion at a stock price of approximately $36.13 per share. It had about $300 million in revenue in 2019 with a loss of about $500 million.\nNio (NIO)\nUnlike previous companies, Nio has been a public company for some time. It originally went public in the U.S. back in September of 2018, selling IPO shares at $6.26 and raising $1 billion.\nNio's IPO was far from smooth. After going public at $6.26 per share, it traded down to nearly $1. Then in the middle of the coronavirus outbreak, Nio received a much-needed investment of $1 billion from investors, including state-backed entities.\nNio designs, jointly manufactures, and sells smart and connected premium electric vehicles, attempting to develop next-generation technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving, and artificial intelligence. Joint manufacturing means that it uses a state-owned contract manufacturer to build its cars.\nNio plans to provide customers with comprehensive, convenient, and innovative charging solutions and other user-centric services. It began deliveries of the ES8, a 7-seater high-performance premium electric SUV in China in June 2018, and its variant, the six-seater ES8, in March 2019. Nio officially launched the ES6, a 5-seater high-performance premium electric SUV, in December 2018 and began deliveries in June 2019. It officially launched the EC6, a 5-seater smart premium electric Coupe SUV, in December 2019 with deliveries in 2020.\nNio sold 17,353 EVs in Q4/2020 and 43,728 for the year. It warned a shortage in chips and batteries will force a production slowdown to 7,500 a month in Q2 from 10,000 vehicles a month in February.\nNio currently trades at more than $43 per share, including a big jump recently, for a valuation of approximately $48 billion. It had revenue of $2.3 billion in 2019 for a loss of $3.8 billion.\nSummary\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this should provide exciting new investment opportunities. However, the investment terrain is complex. There are dozens of new start-ups where the public can now invest that were previously exclusively venture capital investment opportunities. Many of these are following different roads to success. There are legacy auto manufacturers that could prosper or get destroyed in this transition. There are some exciting new EV company opportunities in China. And then there is Tesla.\nThis EV roadmap is intended to help investors explore different roads to investment by explaining the basic strategies for these EV companies. These roads can have different opportunities and risks, and the roadmap helps to frame these. Above all, valuation is an overriding risk that is highlighted throughout this article.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>New Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNew Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-19 14:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.\nLast October, I wrote a popular article providing...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车","01211":"比亚迪股份","NKLA":"Nikola Corporation","LI":"理想汽车","GP":"GreenPower Motor Company Inc.","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","GOEV":"Canoo Inc.","WKHS":"Workhorse Group, Inc.","F":"福特汽车","002594":"比亚迪","TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来","FSR":"菲斯克","HYLN":"Hyliion Holdings Corp."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1196402560","content_text":"Summary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.\nLast October, I wrote a popular article providing a roadmap for investing in electric vehicles, but since then, so much has changed: new entrants, new strategies, fluctuating valuations, etc.\nSo, I updated and greatly expanded the previous EV investment roadmap.\nThis update includes a deeper look at valuations for 23 EV companies with revenue projections, when available.\nIt also classifies these EV companies into their primary market categories and summarizes their different strategies.\n\nPhoto by Sven Loeffler/iStock via Getty Images\nMy article Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap published five months ago, was popular, and some followers have requested an update. Many new EV companies entered the market, most of them through SPACs. Valuations fluctuated wildly, and there has been a great deal of publicity around these companies.\nThis new updated EV investment roadmap is greatly expanded. In addition to updating the strategies and progress of companies previously discussed, I expanded the number of companies covered. This article also groups EV companies into their primary markets, enabling better comparisons and evaluation of market opportunities. In addition, it includes a comparative valuation chart showing every company's market cap with a comparison to projected revenue, where possible. This takes advantage (good or bad) of looking at the long-term revenue forecasts provided in SPAC mergers that public companies can't make.\nIn addition to the EV manufacturers discussed here, there are also EV investment opportunities in charging station companies, battery manufacturers, and battery materials companies. These were covered in the original roadmap and may also be updated in a later article.\nApproximately 2 million EVs were sold in 2019, and although the number declined along with all auto sales in 2020, it is forecasted to increase in 2021 and reach 8-10 million by 2025. Some forecast that EV sales will be greater than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2030, or even earlier. The automobile market appears to be moving toward a historical transformation, and exceptional investment gains can be made by anticipating new emerging industries and investing in the eventual winners of those new industries. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)are obvious examples. Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to create a new emerging industry.\nThere are also significant risks. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to be released in the next three years, which will drive rapid growth in EV sales. However, the expected sales from these new models, as well as the increasing expectations from Tesla, most likely exceed the total projected market. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the companies covered here won't exist five years from now. It reminds me of the internet bubble of the late 1990s when scores of internet-based companies went public with little or no revenue. Almost all of these failed within three years -- however, a couple, including Amazon, went on to enormous success.\nEVs provide a major new investment opportunity with high risks. To succeed, you need to have a clear EV investment roadmap.\nSo, how can you invest in this new emerging market? The EV landscape is complex and investment opportunities are varied. While Tesla is the unquestioned leader in EVs, some consider it overvalued and unlikely to show exceptional returns to new investors. The current U.S. legacy automakers are committed to introducing many new EVs in the next few years, and they have some entrenched advantages with volume manufacturing capabilities, a dealer infrastructure, and loyal customers. There are exciting new EV start-ups in the U.S. that have come public this year, mostly through Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), and there are several interesting publicly traded Chinese EV manufacturers.\nThis new roadmap for EV investment classifies companies into three primary markets segments:\n\nTheConsumer Retailsegment includes EVs sold to consumers individually, such as SUVs, pickup trucks, sedans, etc.\nTheCommercial Deliverysegment includes local delivery EV vans and trucks sold to fleets.\nTheMedium- and Long-Haul Truckingsegment includes heavier Class 4 - Class 8 trucks, as well as special industrial vehicles.\n\nIn addition, it categorizesLegacy ManufacturersandChinese EV Companies. This enables investors to evaluate investment opportunities by considering unique opportunities within each market segment.\nThere is an enormous amount of investment optimism for EVs, and retail investors have been aggressively buying into EV stocks with seemingly no regard for valuation. Then there is the additional challenge of valuing companies with no revenue, especially those coming public through SPACs. So, valuation is an important investment consideration.\nSo let's start by looking at an overview of comparative EV valuations.\nEV Investment Valuation Overview\nThe following chart summarizes valuations for 23 EV companies, including several legacy companies. For SPACs, market cap estimates are computed using the pro forma number of shares at closing, otherwise using the valuation of the SPAC prior to closing drastically underestimates the valuation, which may be misleading to novice investors. Price/Sales ratios (market cap divided by revenue) are used to compare valuations. As a benchmark, current P/S ratios vary. For example, auto and truck companies have a ratio of 2.7X. Software companies have the highest ratios of over 10X.\nIn the chart, companies that currently have revenue show current P/S ratios. Where projections are available, projected P/S ratios are computed. A note of caution, however. Many of the EV companies came public through SPACs and published their projections (which public companies cannot do), and many of these are likely to prove unrealistic.\nAll of the longer-term revenue projections come from the company (C) forecasts with a SPAC. Some of these may turn out to be accurate, not many are most likely unrealistic. Some, like Lucid, Faraday, and Arrival forecast hitting more than $10 billion in revenue in a few years, when it took Tesla more than 10. Things are different now and they might achieve these, but they could also find that it will take longer to complete development, ramp up production, and create enough customer demand. Many companies may also find that there will be significant capital requirements to achieve this type of growth, and shareholders will be diluted.\n\nTesla, the \"gold standard\" in EVs, has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, which many people believe is overvalued. Its market cap is approximately 20X 2020 revenue and 10X estimated 2022 revenue.\nTesla (TSLA)\nIn the U.S., and to a lesser extent in China, Tesla is the dominant EV provider. It has approximately 60% of the U.S. EV market and about 20% of the market in China. I own a Tesla and love it, but an investment in Tesla stock requires getting comfortable with its valuation. Tesla has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, although declining lately, which some consider still overvalued while others see upside potential.\nThe investment opportunity with Tesla is based on the expectation that it will continue to dominate the EV market, or at least maintain significant market share, despite much greater competition from the expected introduction of hundreds of new EV models in the next few years.\nThere is a great deal already published about Tesla, so I'll move on.\nLegacy Automakers\nSome people think that the legacy automakers will simply fade away. Historically, that was the case in some other industries, but it is not going to happen to most automakers. They are not standing still waiting to become obsolete. Most have aggressive strategies to replace ICE vehicles with EVs. GM plans to invest $27 billion and build and launch as many as 30 new EV models by 2025. Ford plans to invest $29 billion in EVs by 2025 and launch as many as 16 EVs in the next two years. Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY)has also committed billions to develop new EVs.\nThe competitive advantage that legacy automakers have in selling their new EVs is their dealer network. Will new EV customers prefer to continue going to their regular auto dealer to buy their new EV?\nAlmost all legacy automakers worldwide are developing and launching EVs including Volkswagen, Peugeot, Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi, Hyundai/Kia. Let's look a little more closely at GM and Ford as the leaders in the U.S.\nGeneral Motors (GM)\nGM has committed to introducing 20 new electric vehicles by 2023, including EVs across Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC, and Buick. It recently announced that it has already sold out the first-year production of its Hummer electric pickup. By mid-decade, it expects to sell a million EVs per year in its two largest markets: North America and China. As a reference point, Tesla reported deliveries of 367,500 vehicles globally in 2019.\nGM has a solid platform strategy for its EVs. It plans on building its EVs using five interchangeable drive units and three different motors from its Ultium Drive System platform. Ultium energy options range from 50 to 200 kWh, which could enable an estimated range of up to 400 miles. Most of its EVs will have 400-volt battery packs and up to 200 kW fast-charging capability while the truck platform will have 800-volt battery packs and 350 kW fast-charging capabilities.\nThe key building blocks of the Ultium battery system are large-scale, high-energy cells. Engineered in partnership with LG Energy Solutions, they use both advanced chemistry and a smart cell design that's optimized for a broad portfolio of EVs. GM engineers and scientists are actively researching and testing new elements in battery chemistry to lower costs and improve charge times. Ultium can contain either vertically- or horizontally-stacked cells to integrate into vehicle design: vertically for trucks, SUVs, and crossovers, or horizontally for cars and performance vehicles. As new chemistry is developed and becomes available, the battery management system could digitally update the modules.\nGM also has other EV opportunities with its BrightDrop commercial EV service and its Cruise subsidiary. BrightDrop will not just sell delivery EVs, it will provide an entire service platform for commercial delivery customers. Its set of electric delivery vehicles starts with the EV600 and includes the BrightDrop EP1, a pod-like electric pallet. SeeGeneral Motors' Aggressive EV/AV Strategies May Payoff Big.\nWith its highest stock price of $61.65, GM's current market cap is approximately $89 billion, increasing primarily because of its progress with EVs. This approximately 3X valuation in 2018, but still only 13% of Tesla.\nFord (F)\nFord is also investing heavily in EVs. It just introduced the Mustang Mach-E, a battery-powered crossover with sports car styling, and plans to introduce an all-electric version of its best-selling F-150 pickup later this year. Also, planned is an electric edition of the full-size Transit van, which has been popular in the commercial delivery market. Ford has confirmed plans to build a luxury Lincoln crossover on a battery-powered platform provided by Rivian. The automaker also plans to introduce two new midsize electric crossovers, one each for the Ford and Lincoln brands by 2023.\nMustang Mach-E. Source: Ford\nFord's market cap is approximately $51 billion, twice its previous market cap, and also increasing.\nConsumer Retail EV Companies\nThe consumer retail market has some unique characteristics for new EV companies. Sales are made individually, not in fleets. This diversifies the risk upon launch because only a sufficient number of customers need to be attracted to the new EV. A wave of popularity can provide terrific momentum.\nHowever, the lack of a dealer network can be an impediment. Selling EVs directly to consumers instead of through dealers is prohibited in most states. By law, auto manufacturers can't compete with franchised dealers. These are laws that go back many decades to protect dealers. This can be a major impediment for new companies without established independent dealer franchises. So, new AV companies. like Tesla, need to sell their vehicles online. Tesla has successfully done this, but it took a lot of work and time. Lack of a dealer network also creates impediments in service.\nIn addition, over the next 4-5 years, autonomous capabilities will be increasingly important to luxury vehicles. This may prove to be a challenge to start-up EV companies because they can't afford to develop this technology.\nLet's look closer at the alternative consumer retail EV investments.\nLucid Motors (CCIV)\nLucid was founded in 2007 under the name Atieva and originally focused on building electric vehicle batteries and powertrains for other vehicle manufacturers. The company rebranded itself as Lucid Motors in October 2016 and shifted its strategy to develop an all-electric, high-performance, luxury vehicle. Shortly after that, it encountered financial difficulties and struggled to get short-term funding. In 2018 it raised more than $1 billion in investment, primarily from Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund, and gave up a majority of the company.\nLucid Motors reached an agreement to become a publicly-traded company through a merger with the SPAC Churchill Capital IV Corp., in one of the largest deals SPAC EV deals. The combined company, in which Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund will continue to be the largest shareholder, had a transaction equity value of $11.75 billion (for $10/share). At the same time, it closed a PIPE investment priced at $15 a share, giving it an implied pro forma equity value of $24 billion. Rumors about this deal circulated before the transaction was formally announced, making it one of the most anticipated SPAC deals. The hype and speculation drove up the stock price of Churchill Capital IV Corp. from its opening price of $10 a share to almost $60. I believe that some of this may have been driven by novice SPAC investors who didn't realize that the valuation of CCIV didn't include the eventual valuation of Lucid. The share price dropped more than 30% after the details of the deal were announced. It's also likely that Lucid renegotiated the terms of the merger based on the price jump.\nThe company's first product is the Lucid Air, a well-equipped luxury electric vehicle that features 406 miles of projected range and 480 horsepower with a starting price of $77,400, or $69,900 after the U.S. Federal Tax Credit of $7,500. This new Lucid Air model is positioned as a high-performance, ultra-efficient luxury EV sedan in a line of future vehicles that are expected to include Lucid Air Touring, Grand Touring, and Dream Edition versions.\nThe company plans to begin production and deliveries of the Lucid Air in North America in the second half of 2021. Previously the company aimed to begin deliveries earlier in 2021. It intends to sell the car in Europe in 2022, followed by China in 2023. Lucid vehicles will be produced at its new factory in Casa Grande, Arizona. The company plans to expand the factory in phases in the coming years to have the capacity to produce 365,000 units per year at scale. The initial phase of the $700 million factory construction was completed late last year and will have the capacity to produce 30,000 vehicles a year.\nLucid also apparently has a commitment to build an assembly plant in Saudi Arabia, which was rumored to be a condition of the $1 billion investment from the Saudi public fund. The Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund also provided $600 million in bridge financing and invested in the SPAC deal as well. So, while this assembly plant may be expensive and may not be critical, it will most likely need to happen.\nLucid has ambitious plans to achieve $14 billion in revenue in 2025, and its current stock price at $29.17, which gives it a market cap of more than $46 billion, may already reflect those ambitions. Its market cap is roughly the same as Ford.\nFisker (FSR)\nFisker, which had its origins with Fisker Automotive, is an interesting story that ended in bankruptcy. Henrik Fisker originally co-founded Fisker Automotive in 2007. He was responsible for designing many premium cars such as the Aston Martin. Subsequently, Fisker Automotive had to deal with a Tesla lawsuit against Fisker Automotive alleging it stole Tesla's technology, a controversial $528.7 million conditional loan from the Department of Energy, a recall of its battery produced by A123, and the loss of several hundred vehicles in hurricane Sandy. Henrik Fisker resigned in March 2013 because of disagreements over business strategy and in November 2013, Fisker filed its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case.\nHowever, Henrik Fisker retained the Fisker brand and trademarks, and in 2016 he started another electric vehicle company named Fisker Inc. with the Fisker brand and trademarks. In 2019, Fisker shifted from developing a sports car with a solid-state battery to the Ocean SUV featuring a lithium-ion battery, which it later abandoned for a solid-state battery.\nFisker is positioning itself in a unique segment for those who want the most environmentally friendly EV. While this may be an early growth segment for EVs, it's difficult to estimate its eventual competitive advantage and the size of this environmentally-friendly market segment.\nThe Ocean is a crossover made of recycled metal and plastic with an expected base price of $37,499, and an expected lease of less than $400 a month. Fisker's plan is essentially a lease-only business model that lets customers keep a vehicle for years or return it at any time. It aims to source motors, batteries, and other components from technical partnerships with automakers and will outsource production from existing auto plants. Fisker is currently taking reservations at $250 for the Ocean. It also announced an agreement with Foxconn to jointly develop a vehicle pioneering a new market segment to be sold globally under the Fisker brand commencing in Q4 2023. at the end of 2022. Production will start at Magna Steyr's manufacturing facilities in Europe. At the end of February 2021, it had 12,467 cancellable reservations.\nFisker Ocean. Source: Fisker\nFisker went public using a SPAC (Spartan Energy). The original combination with SPAQ in October 2020 was valued at $2.9 billion with a cash investment of approximately $1 billion. The stock currently trades at approximately $21 per share, after reaching a high of $28.50, from the original price of $10, which is a market cap of $4.6 billion. Fisker projects $3.3 billion in revenue in 2023. It had almost $1 billion in cash at the end of 2020 and expected to use almost half of this in 2021: $250 million on operating expenses and $250 million in capital investments. If the Ocean is delayed into 2023, Fisker risks missing its revenue objective and will potentially need additional cash to complete development and launch.\nFaraday Future (PSAC)\nFaraday Future was originally established in May 2014 by Chinese businessman Jia Yueting. It is headquartered in Los Angeles and has offices in Silicon Valley, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu. Faraday Future also had a turbulent history. In 2016, it struggled financially, and in 2017 some key executives departed over a dispute about financial issues. They later founded Canoo.\nIn December 2018 the company announced layoffs due to a cash crunch and financial troubles. The company's founder Jia Yueting filed for personal bankruptcy in the United States' federal court in Delaware on October 14, 2019. Following Jia's personal bankruptcy, he decided to step down from his role as CEO of Faraday Future in order to assume a new position as the Chief Product and User Officer. He was replaced as CEO by Carsten Breitfeld, the former CEO at rival electric vehicle startup Byton.\nSomehow, Faraday was able to raise $2.3 billion in private funding over 5 rounds from a variety of investors. In early 2018, it received $1.5 billion in funding from an undisclosed investor from Hong Kong.\nFaraday's flagship product offering will be the FF 91, featuring 1,050 HP, 0-60 mph in less than 2.4 seconds, zero gravity seats with the largest 60-degree reclining angles, and a user experience designed to create a mobile, connected, and luxurious living space. The FF 91 is targeted to launch in 2022.\nFF 91. Source: Faraday Future\nIts strategic partners include one of China's top three OEMs and a critical Chinese city, which the company believes will help establish its presence in the Chinese vehicle market.\nFaraday Future plans several cars based on its Variable Platform Architecture. FF 91 is the first production vehicle and flagship model. Pricing will range between $120,000 and upwards of $200,000, which places it against formidable opponents. Faraday Future is already looking forward to expanding its range with a pair of smaller models named FF 81 and FF 71. The FF 81 is planned to be priced at $75,000 to 95,000 with a 2023 release. The FF 71 is planned to be priced at $45,000 to $65,000 with a planned release of 2024.\nThe Primary Manufacturing Facility for FF 91 is in Hanford, CA with contract manufacturing for future models in Gunsan, South Korea.\nFaraday Future is planning high-Level automation with a Level-3 capable system using a redundant safety architecture based on NVIDIA Xavier System-on-a-chip. It will be capable of highway auto-drive and hardware ready for advanced auto-drive. It is targeting full autonomous valet parking & summon in any parking lot or structure. Eventually, it expects full auto-drive, including full 360˚ sensor coverage for advanced auto-drive & auto-park features.\nIn January 2021, Faraday Future announced that the company would go public through a reverse merger with the special purpose acquisition company Property Solutions Acquisition Corp. (PSAC). The combined company will be valued at $3.4 billion. Faraday Future is expected to set up contract manufacturing operations in China through their partnership with Geely. Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn is also expected to serve as an additional strategic partner.\nFaraday Future projects $10.5 billion in revenue in 2024 and $21.5 billion in 2025. Revenue is expected to start in 2022 with the delivery of 2,400 vehicles for $504 million. Most likely these projections could prove to be optimistic. At a current stock price of approximately $12.80, it has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nLordstown Motors (RIDE)\nLordstown Motors based in Lordstown, Ohio, was originally founded in 2018 by Steve Burns, the former CEO of Workhorse Group. The company licensed technology from Workhorse in return for royalties and a 10% ownership. Lordstown is named after the famous GM Lordstown manufacturing plant, which it acquired in November 2019 in an unusual transaction. GM announced that it was closing the plant and was under a great deal of pressure for that decision. So, GM \"sold\" the plant to a company that was renamed Lordstown for an estimated $20 million that it loaned to the acquiring company. Subsequently, the sale was redefined to be part of a $75 million investment by GM, of which $50 million was an in-kind exchange for the plant.\nLordstown went public through the SPAC DiamondPeak Holdings Corp. in 2020. It currently has more than 400 employees.\nIts first product is the Lordstown Endurance, a full-sized EV pickup truck. Lordstown is positioning Endurance for the pickup fleet market segment. The expected price is $52,000+, and it claimed to have more than 100,000 pre-orders by January 2021. However, a recent research article published by a short seller claimed \"Our research has revealed that Lordstown's order book consists of fake or entirely non-binding orders, from customers that generally do not even have fleets of vehicles.\" Lordstown is disputing that article.\nIt believes the fleet pickup market segment is underserved with no current EV-focused competition. It estimates that the full-sized pick-up truck fleet market is 1.2 million vehicles per year in the U.S., but it's more fragmented than other truck fleets. Pickup \"fleets\" tend to be much smaller and local, so there may not be much of a market distinction for a small company buying several EV pickups from a traditional auto dealer. About half of the total U.S. pickup market is classified as fleet sales, meaning more than one.\nEven though Lordstown is targeting the commercial fleet market, it is a similar product to the Ford EV F-150. So I classify it in the consumer EV category. It is a class 2 vehicle. Lordstown also may enter the SUV market in the longer-term.\nThe Endurance will compete against future models from Rivian and Tesla, as well as Ford and GM in ICE pick-ups and their upcoming EV pick-ups. Ford plans on selling its EV F-150 in mid-2022. Initial production of the Endurance is expected in the second half of 2021, so it may have a short market advantage. Nevertheless, it forecasts selling 65,000 vehicles in 2023 and 107,000 in 2024. These estimates could be a large percentage of the EV pick-up market in those years.\nAt the SPAC merger, the implied valuation for Lordstown was $1.6 billion, including a $500 million PIPE and the $75 million by GM. Lordstown's financial projections appear to be aggressive. It projects to start shipping the Endurance in late 2021 with projected revenue in 2022 of $1.7 billion, increasing to $5.8 billion in 2024. Its stock price at approximately $13.60 values the company at a market cap of approximately $2.2 billion. The value of the company depends on the likelihood of achieving its projections.\nA fleet sales strategy makes sense for Lordstown since it would be too expensive to build a retail sales and service capability. However, it's not clear that this will become a distinct competitive advantage. Some small fleets may still prefer to buy their EV pickups from established local dealers with service capabilities.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nCanoo started as Evelozcity in 2017 and rebranded as Canoo in the spring of 2019. Canoo is a Los Angeles-based company that develops electric vehicles. It has over 350 employees. Canoo has designed a modular electric platform purpose-built to deliver maximum vehicle interior space, which is adaptable to support a wide range of vehicle applications for consumers and businesses. Canoo expects to launch its first consumer model in 2022, simply named the Canoo that will be available by subscription, followed shortly after by a multi-purpose delivery vehicle and a sports vehicle, each built off of the same underlying platform. Canoo went public using a SPAC (Hennessy Capital Acquisition) and now trades as GOEV.\nCanoo's all-electric skateboard-like platform is designed to support both consumer retail and commercial vehicle configurations. The EV leverages Canoo's flat skateboard architecture for a high level of usable interior space. Its commercial vehicle program, expected in 2023, addresses a projected $50B+ last-mile delivery market with an EV platform that maximizes cargo volume.\nHyundai Motor Group said it would jointly develop an electric vehicle platform with the company.\nCanoo's platform strategy is interesting. It could be used as an EV platform for custom fleets of delivery vehicles. It has no AV development, but it claims to be \"AV Ready\" which could be useful for AV companies wanting to build custom AV delivery fleets.\nIts all-electric multi-purpose delivery vehicle is expected to be priced starting at approximately $33,000. It is based on Canoo's proprietary electric platform and will be offered in two initial size variants, with others to follow. Limited availability will begin in 2022, with scaled production and launch planned for 2023. Customers can pre-order the multi-purpose delivery vehicle for a refundable deposit of $100 per vehicle\nIt plans to offer two multi-purpose delivery vehicles: the MPDV1 and the larger MPDV2. The first has a 200-foot cargo volume and a range of 130-200 miles. It offers more capacity than today's ICE delivery vehicles at an affordable price with urban mobility enabled by a space-efficient footprint. The vehicle is also designed to fit within many height-restricted areas like parking garages.\nThe MPDV2 has a cargo volume of 450 feet and a range of 90-190 miles. Its roof and step-in height enable individuals to easily walk-in the vehicle and accommodate a standing position while inside.\nThe original SPAC transaction provided approximately $600 million, with a pro forma equity value of approximately $2.4 billion. Like other SPAC mergers, its stock price has fluctuated. It currently trades at about $15.90 per share for a market cap of approximately $3.7 billion. Canoo projects $2.0 billion in revenue in 2025 from about $500 million in engineering services, $1.2 billion from its consumer vehicle subscriptions, and the remainder from its commercial program. Canoo expects revenue of more than $300 million in 2022 after the launch of its lifestyle consumer vehicle.\nSince its first products are aimed at consumers, as is most of its forecasted 2025 revenue, I categorize it primarily as a consumer EV company. However, I think the design of that Canoo vehicle may not attract enough customers. More importantly, its subscription service way of selling its EV to consumers is risky. I think it has more potential in the commercial market, however, a dual strategy (consumer and commercial) is challenging. I like its skateboard platform design and that could prove to be a competitive advantage.\nRivian\nAlthough not yet public, I include Rivian because it has plans for an IPO as soon as Sept 2021, although it could slip into 2022. There are rumors that the company is targeting a market valuation of approximately $50B. Rivian has already raised more than $8 billion to date from Amazon, Ford, T. Rowe Price, and others.\nRivian has developed and vertically integrated a connected electric platform that can be flexibly applied to a range of applications, including the company's adventure products, as well as B2B products such as the Amazon last-mile delivery vans. The company's initial products, the R1T and R1S, provide a combination of performance, off-road capability, and utility. These vehicles will be produced at Rivian's manufacturing plant in Normal, Ill., with customer deliveries expected to begin in summer 2021. The launch of the R1S three-row electric SUV will follow in August.\nAdditional lower-priced models are being planned. The expected R2 series would include at least two smaller electric vehicles to coincide with the smaller platform, then another platform for R3.\nCommercial Delivery EV Companies\nEV truck companies differ based on the type of truck they are developing. The technology and markets are very different, so I separate them into two categories. The first category includes commercial delivery vehicles.\nCompanies making EV delivery vehicles have some major advantages that could make them good investments. First, delivery vehicles typically travel less than 250 miles during a day, so they can be conveniently recharged overnight. Secondly, they are typically sold in large quantities to fleets. This means that building a retail sales infrastructure is not necessary. It only requires a small salesforce. In addition, maintenance can also be provided at the fleet's operational center, so not as many service centers are required.\nThe disadvantage in this market is that there are a relatively small number of customers that buy in large volumes, so if the EV manufacturer can't get enough large customers, they may not be able to stay in business. GM estimates the combined market opportunity for parcel and food delivery, as well as reverse logistics, in the U.S. will be more than $850 billion by 2025.\nThe commercial market is expected to be a major growth area for EVs. Other start-up automakers like Rivian as well as legacy automakers such as Ford, Daimler, and GM have announced plans to enter the segment. GM recently announced its BrightDrop ecosystem for commercial customers that includes an all-new electric delivery van, the EV600 available by the end of 2021, as well as an integrated autonomous pallet and related services.\nThis group of EV companies focuses primarily on commercial delivery. In general, these are in the light-duty trucks category, although it also includes some medium-duty trucks. This generally includes the following commercial truck classes:\n\nClass 1: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 0-6,000 pounds or 0-2,722 kilograms.\nClass 2: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 6,001-10,000 pounds or 2,722-4,536 kilograms.1\nClass 3: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 10,001-14,000 pounds or 4,536-6,350 kilograms.\n\nIt can also include somewhat larger medium-duty EV delivery trucks:\n\nClass 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.\nClass 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.\n\nEV delivery trucks also have an advantage over ICE vehicles because they can have a greater delivery storage space. Smaller buses and transit vehicles are also included in this category.\nLast-mile package delivery is not an immediate-term autonomous vehicle opportunity because it requires a delivery person to be on the truck anyway.\nWorkhorse Group (WKHS)\nWorkhorse has been a public company for ten years. Originally AMP Electric Vehicles, it was established in 2007 as a developmental-stage vehicle electrification company, focusing on conversions. AMP Electric Vehicles went public in 2010 trading on the OTC market under the AMPD symbol. When the economic benefits of conversion became less certain, it pivoted away from passenger vehicles and began to focus on electrifying commercial vehicles. AMP acquired the Workhorse brand and the Workhorse custom chassis assembly plant in Union City. In March of 2013, AMP formally changed its name to Workhorse Group Incorporated.\nThe Company designs and builds a last-mile delivery electric vehicle. The C-Series EVs cover the larger size of commercial delivery vehicles in Classes 3-5. As part of its solutions, it also develops cloud-based, real-time telematics performance monitoring systems. It sells its vehicles to fleet customers directly and through its primary distributor, Ryder Systems. It is currently focused on bringing the C-Series electric delivery truck to market and fulfilling the existing backlog of orders.\nThe C-Series looks like a viable EV replacement for the 350,000 last-mile delivery vehicles sold in the U.S. annually. It recently announced an increased driving range from 100 miles to 160, which should open more market opportunities. It has a viable short-term go-to-market strategy selling fleets to delivery companies. It currently has test vehicles with UPS, DHL, FedEx, Amazon, and Walmart.\nWorkhorse recently lost out on the United States Postal Services Next Generation Delivery Vehicle project, however, it is in the process of challenging this decision. Additionally, its investment in Lordstown also provides an indirect investment opportunity. On November 7, 2019, the Company entered a transaction with Lordstown Motors to grant LMC a perpetual and worldwide license to certain intellectual property relating to its W-15 electric pickup truck platform and related technology in exchange for royalties, equity interest (approximately 10%) in LMC, and other considerations. This was a $320 million asset for Workhorse at the end of 2020.\nWorkhorse received a significant increase in orders in Q4/2020 but built just seven trucks in the fourth quarter due to production systems and supply chain issues. Workhorse plans to continue to take it slow, striving to build three of its composite-body battery-electric trucks a day in March with a plan to reach 10 trucks a day by the end of June. This makes its original 2021 goal of producing 1,800 trucks unlikely. It partnered with Hitachi and Hitachi Capital America (\"HCA\") to improve the Company's manufacturing, operational, and supply chain capabilities as well as to develop a national dealer network to support Workhorse's sales with vehicle financing options for both dealers and customers.\nWorkhorse has a market cap of approximately $1.9 billion. While Workhorse had ongoing revenue, unlike many other new EV companies, its revenue is still insignificant. It had a revenue of $1.4 million in 2020 and $377,000 in 2019. It has a backlog of over 8,000 vehicles but doesn't expect to be able to build many of those in 2021. It raised $270 million in capital over several financings, providing the Company with additional capital to build its backlog. It had cash of $215 million as of March 1, 2021. Because Workhorse is a traditional public company, it hasn't made long-term financial projections like SPAC-based companies.\nElectric Last Mile (FIII)\nElectric Last Mile, based in Troy Michigan, was founded by Jason Luo, former CEO of Ford China before it was acquired by China's Ningbo Joyson Electronic for $920 million in 2016, including James Taylor, former CEO of GM's Hummer brand and former CEO of electric car maker Karma Automotive. Taylor serves as the company's top executive with Luo as the company's chairman.\nThe company plans to launch a small electric delivery van (class 1-2), called the UD-1, in the third quarter of 2021, and then introduce an Urban Utility vehicle (Class 2-3) in 2022. These are expected to compete with Workhorse, Rivian, Canoo, as well as the Ford eTransit and the GMC BV1, none of which is expected to be a Class 1 vehicle.\nThe company says it has 30,000 preorders for its van, representing more than $1 billion in sales. Electric Last Miles vehicles will be based on Sokon's commercial van made in China through a joint venture with Dongfeng Automobile Co Ltd. in order to accelerate development time.\nElectric Last Mile (ELM) is expected to manufacture the vans in a former General Motors Co. Hummer plant in Mishawaka, Ind., that the company is acquiring from China's Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co. Ltd. The plant has the capacity to produce 100,000 vehicles annually with plans to build approximately 4,000 UD-1 vans by the end of 2021. The UD-1 has a starting price of $32,500 and a range of 150 miles. The battery for the vehicle is expected to be supplied by the Chinese battery company CATL.\nELM believes that it has a competitive advantage because its first vehicle, the ELM Urban Delivery, is scheduled to be available in 2021. It is based on a proven, existing platform developed and sold by Sokon Group in the Asian market, where there are 30,000 of these electric delivery vehicles driving 1.5 million miles every day. At the close of the business combination, ELM will be an independent, U.S. company producing electric vehicles in the U.S. with Sokon Group providing access to its know-how, parts supply, and field and service data.\nELM expects that the Urban Delivery vehicle will be the first electric delivery vehicle coming to market in the class 1 category (GVW of 6,000 lbs or less) in the U.S. It will also have 35% more carrying volume compared to similar ICE delivery vehicles, a critical part of the value proposition. It also anticipates that its price and greater carrying volume will allow it to take market share from the class 2 category of vehicles as well.\nIts crossover product portfolio strategy targets commercial delivery vehicles spanning from class 1 to class 3, which represents over 80% of the last mile market.\nELM anticipates $122 million in revenue in 2021, rapidly increasing to $3 billion in 2025. The price of FIII stock increased immediately following its announcement with Electric Last Mile, rising more than 40% to $14.50, but now it has dropped closer to the original deal price to $10.25 for a market cap of approximately $1.5 billion.\nGreenPower Motor Company (GP)\nGreenPower Motor Company Inc. is a Canadian battery-electric bus manufacturer with multiple models of high- and low-floor vehicles, including transit buses, school buses, and shuttles. GreenPower offers commercial vehicles for delivery, public transit, schools, vanpooling, micro-transit, shuttles, and is developing a capability of autonomous operation. It went public on August 28, 2020.\nIn 2014 GreenPower launched its first purpose-built, battery-electric bus, the EV350, 40-foot transit bus. GreenPower received its first order in 2017 for ten EV350s from the City of Porterville, California.\nGreenPower's electric buses are purpose-built and designed to be all-electric, allowing it to put the battery and propulsion system in optimized locations that provide weight and structural advantages. Its primary EV is the EV Star with more than 120 vehicles delivered. It comes in several variations:\n\nEV Star - Up to 19 passengers\nEV Star Plus - Up to 24 passengers\nEV Star ADA - Passenger and curbside lift for ADA\nEV Star Cargo - 5,000 pounds of load\nEV Star Cargo Plus - 570 cubic feet of cargo space.\n\nIts EV school bus seats up to 90 students and has a range of up to 150 miles.\nGreenPower had revenue of $13.5 million in 2020 It has about $21 million in cash. It's an interesting alternative since it is already shipping EVs, has revenue, and also has a lower market cap of less than $1 billion. Since it did a traditional IPO, it hasn't published longer-term financial forecasts.\nArrival (CIIC)\nArrival was founded in 2015 in London to make a variety of commercial electric vehicles. It has approximately 1,200 employees across 11 cities in 8 countries. In November 2020, Arrival and the SPAC CIIG entered into a business combination agreement with an implied valuation of $5.39 billion.\nArrival plans on releasing four commercial EVs over the next few years.\n\nQ4/2021: An electric bus for 8-125 passengers and a range of 240-400km\nQ3/2022: An electric delivery van with a payload of 975-2,000kg and a range of 150-340km\n2022: A larger electric van with a payload of 4,000 kg and a range of 190-400km\n2023: a small vehicle platform with a range of 100-300km.\n\nThis mix provides a nice diversified portfolio of EVs. Arrival claims to have received orders from UPS for 10,000 vans. It plans a unique flexible manufacturing approach using micro-factories with each projected to manufacture 10,000 vans per year. All of its vehicles use a modular skateboard electric platform.\nArrival ambitiously projects $14.1 billion in revenue in 2024. Half of that revenue is expected from delivery vans, 22% from buses, and the rest from the large van and its small vehicle platform. With CIIC's stock price at $24.80 per share, Arrival's current market cap is relatively high at approximately $15.0 billion. Justifying its market cap depends on its ability to release, sell, and produce its four commercial EVs.\nProterra (ACTC)\nProterra is a commercial electric vehicle company with over a decade of production experience. The Company has designed an end-to-end, flexible technology platform that claims to deliver higher performance and a low total cost of ownership to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end customers.\nProterra, Inc., was originally founded in Golden, Colorado, by Dale Hill in 2004. Later the company wanted to take the lead in creating zero-emission, U.S.-based transit buses. In 2010 it moved its manufacturing plant from Golden, Colorado to Greenville, South Carolina. In 2015, Proterra was awarded a $3 million grant from the California Energy Commission to fund the design, development, and construction of the company's battery-electric transit bus manufacturing line in the City of Industry, California. It moved its headquarters from Greenville, South Carolina, to Burlingame, California, in October 2015. Proterra raised more than $600 million in funding.\nIt is going public through the SPAC ArcLight (ACTC) with a pro forma valuation of $1.6 billion. Upon completion of the transaction, Proterra expects to have up to $825 million in cash to fund growth initiatives, including R&D and the expansion of its next-generation battery program.\nProterra has three complementary businesses:\n\nProterra Powered: Delivering battery systems and electrification solutions to commercial vehicle manufacturers\nProterra Transit:Providing an electric transit bus OEMs\nProterra Energy:Offering turnkey charging and energy management solutions.\n\nThe company's battery systems have been proven in more than 16 million service miles driven by its fleet of transit vehicles and validated through partnerships with commercial vehicle OEMs. Proterra has produced and delivered more than 300 megawatt-hours of battery systems, more than 550 heavy-duty electric transit buses, and installed 54 megawatts of charging systems.\nProterra expected $193 million of revenue in 2020, with an estimated $750 million in existing orders and backlog. It projects $2.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with about 1/3 coming from its Transit business, and 2/3 From Powered & Energy. At ACTC's current stock price of $17.85, Proterra has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nRivian\nRivian (see earlier description in consumer retail) will also compete in the commercial delivery market. It has been working with Amazon (a major investor) to build large electric delivery vans for Prime. Developed specifically for Amazon, a small fleet of Prime vans is on the road now, testing deliveries to customers and gathering feedback. In late fall, it could grow to a large fleet as Rivian ramps up the volume.\nThe EV range of 150 miles is tailored to Amazon's use cycle to optimize the size, weight, and cost of the commercial vehicle. Rivian has three sizes of batteries, but Amazon is starting with just one of them.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nSee the previous summary under consumer retail EV.\nMedium and Long-Haul Trucking EV Companies\nCompanies developing medium- and long-haul EV trucks face a more difficult challenge with battery range. These trucks haul much more weight than commercial delivery vehicles and because they are designed for long distances, they can't stop every 200-300 miles for recharging.\nFor this reason, many of these companies are using unique hybrid technologies for their trucks. The EV trucks in this category are primarily heavy-duty but also include some medium-duty trucks and specialty vehicles. A couple of the companies focus on retrofitting trucks to be electric.\nMedium-Duty Trucks\nThe medium-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 4, 5, and 6:\n\nClass 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.\nClass 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.\nClass 6: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 19,501-26,000 pounds or 8,846-11,793 kilograms.1\n\nHeavy-Duty Trucks\nThe heavy-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 7 and 8:\n\nClass 7: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 26,001 to 33,000 pounds or 11,794-14,969 kilograms.\nClass 8: This class of trucks has a GVWR of greater than 33,001 pounds or 14,969 kilograms and includes all tractor-trailers.\n\nThe Tesla Semi is a battery vehicle planned for a range of 300 or 500 miles and a speed of 60 MPH with 80,000 lbs of cargo. Tesla plans to start shipping the Semi later this year when it expects to have sufficient cell volume to meet its needs with the production of its 4680 battery pack.\nNikola(NASDAQ:NKLA)\nNikola has been a very controversial company. Founded in 2015, it originally had two different strategies. Its primary strategy is to lease fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) Class-8 heavy trucks and provide the refueling infrastructure to corporate customers. Its second strategy was to develop the Badger EV truck using GM technology.\nNikola originally merged with a SPAC to go public, at an enterprise value of approximately $3.3 billion. On June 6th, 2020, its market cap jumped to more than $30 billion, then later it dropped because of problems with its originally planned deal with GM.\nNikola originally expected a deal with General Motors that included the production of the Nikola Badger EV pickup truck. The proposed arrangement was that GM would take a $2 billion equity stake in Nikola and in return would engineer and produce the Badger. In November 2020, GM and Nikola scrapped the original arrangement. Now it appears that GM will supply Nikola with only its Hydrotec hydrogen fuel-cell technology to integrate into the EV manufacturer's commercial class 7 and class 8 zero-emission semi-trucks. So, the Badger is probably dead.\nNikola now sees semi-trucks as the company's \"core business\" and fuel cells as an increasingly important segment of the semi-truck market thanks to their efficiency in weight and consumption. It expects to begin testing by the end of 2021.\nIt has received pre-orders from Anheuser-Busch and a few other companies, but it doesn't expect deliveries until 2023. Hydrogen fueling stations are key to its strategy, both providing a source of revenue and necessary fueling infrastructure for the trucks to operate, but they also cost a lot. In its March 2020 investor deck, Nikola said a single station capable of fueling 210 trucks a day would cost $16.6 million. Its initial planned network of 700 stations would cost roughly $11.6 billion.\nNikola was also accused of misrepresentation, and its executive chairman and founder stepped down.\nAt the time of the SPAC merger, it projected an optimistic forecast of more than $3 billion in revenue by 2024, with a net income of $145 million. Most of that revenue was expected to come from its Badger truck, which is no longer in the plans. Yet its market cap is still almost $6 billion.\nHyliion (HYLN)\nHyliion, founded in 2015 in Austin, went public in October 2020 through the SPAC Tortoise Acquisition Corp. (SHLL). In March 2019, automotive parts manufacturer Dana Inc. made an equity investment into Hyliion, and together they are manufacturing and marketing Class 8 EVs to Dana's customers, including Volvo, Navistar, and Peterbilt.\nHyliion's strategy is unique, and a very different strategy from Nikola. Essentially it generates electricity onboard the truck using compressed natural gas (CNG). This should be a benefit for longer-range trucking. Hyliion's Hypertruck concept involves an all-electric drivetrain utilizing Dana's electric motor, inverter, and axle technologies. The truck's batteries are fueled by onboard tanks of CNG. With some 700 CNG stations already operating nationwide, it believes that there no need to build out expensive superchargers or hydrogen infrastructure.\nKuwait-based logistics company, Agility, has already placed an order for 1,000 Hypertrucks with initial deliveries targeted in 2022. Combined with a fully electric drivetrain and a natural gas-powered onboard generator to recharge the battery, the Hypertruck ERX will provide more than 1,000 miles of range.\nHyliion will eventually compete with Nikola (FCEV) and the Tesla battery-based Semi, but it plans to have a longer range and lower operating costs. Its HyperTruck ERX is expected to be available in 2021. It also has a hybrid-electric truck.\nThe combination with SHLL had an estimated market cap of about $1.5 billion, with approximately $530 million going to the company, including a $325 million fully committed PIPE. At approximately $13.50 per share, its current market cap is approximately $2.2 billion, significantly down from its peak. Hyliion projects $2 billion in revenue in 2024, which it claims is only about 2% of the addressable market.\nXL Fleet (XL)\nXL Fleet is a 10-year old company that went public through the SPAC Pivotal. XL is different because it provides fleet electrification modifications for ICE trucks across a wide range of vehicle classes (class 2-5) and types. It has over 200 of the largest commercial and municipal fleets as customers, with more than 3,200 XL systems deployed and over 130 million miles driven by customers to date. XL's customer base includes FedEx, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Verizon, the City of Boston, Seattle Fire Department, Yale University, and Harvard University.\nXL's business model is essentially retrofitting existing trucks to be hybrids and then later expanding into fully electric truck conversions. It claims to be creating a fully integrated platform for this. It remains to be seen if the retrofitting business will continue to grow or will it diminish when more trucks are designed and manufactured with EV capabilities.\nUnlike some other EV companies that have no revenue yet because they are still developing products, XL is more of a small company doing low-volume retrofits. It had $7.2 million in revenue in 2019, $21 million in 2020, and estimates $76 million in 2021, but it forecasts $1.3 billion in revenue in 2024 in its investor presentation. It plans to do this by expanding its product line from hybrid to plug-in hybrid to fully electric across a broader range of trucks. It claims to have a $220 million sales pipeline for the next 12 months.\nShort-seller, Muddy Waters, claimed after talking to former XL Fleet employees, that it believed the company significantly exaggerated its order backlog, that the return on investment for the company's products was likely negative, and that it would not be able to compete with big car makers on electrification. The company thoroughly refuted these claims.\nThe original enterprise valuation was approximately $1.4 billion at a $10 share price for the merger. Its price jumped by about 35% but has since gone back down to $12.40 for a market cap of about $1.8 billion. Although XL Fleet has revenue and other EV companies don't, this may not be an advantage. It appears to be a small company for many years that has gone public at a high valuation with grand plans. The risks are in its ability to make a jump from $76 million in 2021 to $1.3 billion in 2024, as well as the question about retrofitting being replaced by new EV trucks by then.\nXos (NGAC)\nXos Trucks specializes in the field of manufacturing fully electric commercial vehicles. It features a software platform that is designed to accommodate an extensive variety of medium-duty bodies, wheelbase, and range requirements up to 200 miles. It was founded in 2016 and headquartered in North Hollywood, California. It received $20 million of investment in 2020 and now is going public through a merger with the SPAC ExtGen Acquisition Corporation (NGAC) at an estimated proforma value of $1.965 billion.\nIts focus is on medium- and heavy-duty last mile and return-to-base segments (class 5/6, class 6/7, and class 7/8) commercial fleets and specialty vehicles. Some vehicles are currently in production and in regular on-road operations with key fleet customers, and it claimed 6,000 unit orders in backlog.\nIts MD-platform is for classes 5-6 for pickup and delivery. Its HD X-Platform is an adaptable chassis for highway, vocational, and severe work conditions. Its market is for customers with highly predictable routes that allow for batteries designed for a more limited range. A significantly larger frame and smaller battery pack allow for reduced density.\nXos has a bundled all-in-one offering that allows fleets to access all the tools and services they need to go electric with a single point of contact at a fixed monthly expense.\nXos had $3 million in revenue in 2020 and estimates $14 million in 2021. However, it forecasts $5.2 billion in revenue in 2025. At the current stock price of $10.30, its market cap is approximately $2 billion, about the same as its original SPAC transaction.\nLion Electric (NGA)\nLion Electric is a Canadian company founded by Marc Bédard in 2008. Its focus is to be a leader in designing, developing, and manufacturing purpose-built urban electric vehicles; vehicles that are specifically designed as delivery trucks, refuse trucks, bucket trucks, moving trucks, school buses, and shuttle buses. It has over 300 all-electric vehicles on the road today.\nIn November 2020, it announced that it was going public through the SPAC NGA. The transaction had an estimated pro forma enterprise value of $1.5 billion.\nIt plans on seven new truck models and one new school bus, for a total of 15 all-electric vehicles, representing a full line-up from class 5 to class 8 electric trucks and a full line-up of electric school buses. Its vehicles are produced at its existing manufacturing plant, which has the capacity for the production of up to 2,500 vehicles per year. It intends to open a new plant in the U.S. capable of delivering over 20,000 Lion trucks and buses per year by 2022.\nIts all-electric class 6 and class 8 commercial urban trucks combine power, comfort, and modern technology. Custom-built chassis and cabin designed specifically for an all-electric heavy-duty vehicle. The LionC is an all-electric Type C school bus manufactured in North America. The body and chassis were specifically designed to deliver optimal performance. The LionM is an all-electric midi/minibus that meets paratransit and public transportation requirements. Created and designed specifically for the paratransit market, the is spacious and offers unique features that provide enhanced security and accessibility to the end-users.\nLion Electric had $29 million in revenue in 2020 and expects $204 million in 2021. It forecasts revenue to jump to $3.6 billion a few years later in 2024. Its current market cap is approximately $3.6 billion based on its current stock price of $18.33.\nLightning eMotors (GIK)\nLightning eMotors, formerly Lightning Systems, was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Loveland, Colorado. It provides fleet electrification for familiar commercial vehicle platforms by retrofitting them with its electric powertrains. Lightning eMotors produces electric fleet medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including delivery trucks, shuttle buses, passenger vans, ambulances, bucket trucks, chassis-cab models, and city transit buses. It focuses on urban commercial zero-emission vehicles with a full range of class 3 through class 7 battery-electric and fuel-cell electric vehicles.\nLighting eMotors helps commercial fleets achieve their sustainability goals by offering zero-emission battery-electric vans, trucks, and buses based on familiar, proven vehicles from manufacturers such as Ford and GM. It works with customers, to help them identify their unique commercial electric vehicle, charging, and grant support needs.\nThe Lightning products include integrated all-electric powertrains for the Ford Transit 350HD passenger and cargo vans, Ford E-450 shuttle bus and cutaway models, Ford F-59 step/food van, Ford F-550 cargo trucks and buses, Chevrolet 6500XD Low Cab Forward model, and 30-foot, 35-foot, and 40-foot transit buses.\nLightning has 120 vehicles on the road, and 1,500 vehicles already on order from customers. In addition to making vehicles and powertrains, Lightning also provides a full suite of charging solutions for customers.\nThe deal with GIK has an enterprise value of $650 million, although there is also an Earnout of 20.0% of total pro forma shares outstanding to Lightning eMotors shareholders if the stock crosses certain price thresholds.\nAt the current price, of $11.73, GIK has a market cap of approximately $1 billion, a little more than the original transaction valuation. Similar to XL Fleet, Lightning has the risk that retrofitting may only be an interim business opportunity until more EV trucks are produced.\nPublic Chinese EV Companies\nChina will be the biggest EV market opportunity, and EV start-ups may do better there because there isn't as much entrenched competition from domestic auto companies. China is already the largest EV market in the world, with almost a million EVs sold in 2019. Its EV market represents almost half of the global EV sales volume and is much larger than the U.S. market.\nThe Chinese government has ambitions to become a global leader in new energy vehicles. Soon after the coronavirus outbreak subsided within the country, Chinese authorities announced new policies to support the auto and electric vehicle industries.\nThese Chinese companies are traded through American depository shares (ADS) that contain certain risks. There are financial reporting and transparency risks with these companies, and on top of that, the newer companies are being classified as \"emerging growth\" companies that are already exempt from certain transparency requirements set out in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Like the previous EV stock, these stocks have also been very volatile.\nIn addition to legacy auto manufacturers like BYD, there are also three Chinese EV companies that are publicly traded through American depositary shares.\nBYD Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:BYDDY)\nBYD, which means build your dreams, is the automotive subsidiary of the Chinese multinational BYD Co Ltd. It was founded in January 2003, following BYD Company's acquisition of Tsinchuan Automobile Company. The company produces automobiles, buses, electric bicycles, forklifts, rechargeable batteries, and trucks. The current model range of automobiles includes electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and petrol-engined vehicles. Thirteen years ago, on the advice of his famously skeptical lieutenant, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett made a $232 million investment in BYD, a relatively unknown Chinese car company.\nBy parlaying BYD's rechargeable battery technology into a fast-growing carmaking operation, it gained a foothold in the fledgling electric vehicle market, building longer-lasting batteries and cheaper vehicles than American and Japanese manufacturers were managing to do at the time. In BYD, Buffett and Munger believed they had found a company with a shot at one day becoming the largest player in a global automobile market that was inevitably going electric.\nBYD's start to 2021 was strong with 19,871 plug-in electric cars sold in January in China, including hybrid plug-ins. That was a big increase over 2020 but not as much as 2019.\nLI Auto (LI)\nLixiang, formerly known as Chehejia (\"Car and Home\"), was founded in 2015 and went public in the U.S. on July 30th, 2020. It is a Beijing-based electric-vehicle startup with vertically integrated manufacturing. It designs, researches, manufactures, sells, and offers services featuring a few models of electric vehicles.\nThe company's SUVs are hybrids of a sort. They use electric motors (one on the front axle and one on the rear), but those motors are powered by a combination of a 40.5kWh battery packanda 1.2-liter turbocharged engine paired to a 45-liter fuel tank and a 100kW electric generator, which generates power for the battery pack in real-time. The idea is that the car can be driven for about 100 miles on battery power alone, but it has a total range of nearly 500 miles when leveraging the combustion engine generator.\nThe Company's primary product is an SUV under its brand Li ONE. It also sells peripheral products and provides related services, such as charging stalls, vehicle internet connection services, and extended lifetime warranties. Li Auto is looking to sell a variety of SUVs built on its hybrid technology that range from around $21,000 to about $70,000. The company started shipping its first model in late 2019. It's a midsize SUV is well-appointed and has lots of touchscreens and technology. A full-size premium version is planned for release in 2022.\nDeliveries of Li ONEs were 14,464 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a 67.0% quarter-over-quarter increase and setting a new quarterly record. Deliveries for the full year 2020 reached 32,624 vehicles. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $635 million.\nLI auto went public on July 30th, 2020, raising $1.1 billion at an initial price of $15.50 per share but quickly reached almost $24. It is currently valued at approximately $37 billion at a price of approximately $25.72 per share.\nXPeng (XPEV)\nXiaopeng (XPeng) Motors is a Chinese electric vehicle and technology company that designs and manufactures smart cars. It was founded in 2015 and went public on August 27, 2020, using American depository shares, raising about $1 billion. To date, it has raised about $2.6 billion.\nXPeng aims its EVs at technology-savvy middle-class Chinese consumers, with prices ranging from $22,000 to $45,000 after government subsidies. In some ways, it is a Tesla knock-off at a much lower price. XPeng started production of the G3 in November 2018, and as of July 31, 2020, delivered 18,741. It started production of the P7 and began delivery in May 2020, and as of July 31, 2020, it had delivered 1,966 EVs. The P7 has a range of more than 400 miles. It plans to launch a third Smart EV, a sedan, in 2021. The G3 was among the top-three best-selling electric SUVs in China in 2019.\nXPeng is interesting because it has a platform strategy and is moving aggressively into autonomous driving. It uses a platform strategy to expand product offerings by launching one Smart EV model each year to broaden the addressable market. It builds new models on two highly flexible Smart EV platforms, called David and Edward, respectively. The David platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,600 millimeters to 2,800 millimeters, and the Edward platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,800 millimeters to 3,100 millimeters. It also adopted a platform approach for software systems.\nXPeng claims to be developing an autonomous driving capability for its EVs. The P7 is the first production vehicle to feature the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Xavier system-on-a-chip (SoC) autonomous driving platform. The company's Smart Electric Platform Architecture (SEPA) runs on 2 chips - NVIDIA for the XPILOT and Qualcomm's Snapdragon™ 820A for intelligent services and infotainment, including cameras inside and outside, radars, HD-map, and ultrasonic sensors. Like Tesla, it claims it can create sufficiently-autonomous driving without lidar.\nTo enhance brand recognition and allow more people to experience its Smart EVs, it deployed a small number of Smart EVs in a ride-hailing service in Guangzhou on a trial basis, but it has no current plan to scale up a ride-hailing service.\nXpeng sees first-quarter 2021 deliveries rising 450% year-over-year to 12,500 vehicles. Revenues are expected to increase 533% from a year ago. The company didn't provide bottom-line estimates for the quarter, but will likely post another net loss as it ramps up manufacturing, invests in R&D, and builds out a new manufacturing plant set to open in 2022.\nXpeng reported selling 12,964 vehicles in Q4 2020, up 303% from a year ago. It delivered a total of 27,041 vehicles in 2020, up 112%. It makes the P7 sedan, a rival to the made-in-China Tesla Model 3, and the small G3 SUV.\nThe stock opened on August 27, 2020 at a price of $15 and a valuation of $11 billion, but its stock jumped more than 40% shortly after. Its current valuation is about $35 billion at a stock price of approximately $36.13 per share. It had about $300 million in revenue in 2019 with a loss of about $500 million.\nNio (NIO)\nUnlike previous companies, Nio has been a public company for some time. It originally went public in the U.S. back in September of 2018, selling IPO shares at $6.26 and raising $1 billion.\nNio's IPO was far from smooth. After going public at $6.26 per share, it traded down to nearly $1. Then in the middle of the coronavirus outbreak, Nio received a much-needed investment of $1 billion from investors, including state-backed entities.\nNio designs, jointly manufactures, and sells smart and connected premium electric vehicles, attempting to develop next-generation technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving, and artificial intelligence. Joint manufacturing means that it uses a state-owned contract manufacturer to build its cars.\nNio plans to provide customers with comprehensive, convenient, and innovative charging solutions and other user-centric services. It began deliveries of the ES8, a 7-seater high-performance premium electric SUV in China in June 2018, and its variant, the six-seater ES8, in March 2019. Nio officially launched the ES6, a 5-seater high-performance premium electric SUV, in December 2018 and began deliveries in June 2019. It officially launched the EC6, a 5-seater smart premium electric Coupe SUV, in December 2019 with deliveries in 2020.\nNio sold 17,353 EVs in Q4/2020 and 43,728 for the year. It warned a shortage in chips and batteries will force a production slowdown to 7,500 a month in Q2 from 10,000 vehicles a month in February.\nNio currently trades at more than $43 per share, including a big jump recently, for a valuation of approximately $48 billion. It had revenue of $2.3 billion in 2019 for a loss of $3.8 billion.\nSummary\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this should provide exciting new investment opportunities. However, the investment terrain is complex. There are dozens of new start-ups where the public can now invest that were previously exclusively venture capital investment opportunities. Many of these are following different roads to success. There are legacy auto manufacturers that could prosper or get destroyed in this transition. There are some exciting new EV company opportunities in China. And then there is Tesla.\nThis EV roadmap is intended to help investors explore different roads to investment by explaining the basic strategies for these EV companies. These roads can have different opportunities and risks, and the roadmap helps to frame these. Above all, valuation is an overriding risk that is highlighted throughout this article.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3860676,"gmtCreate":1616479818745,"gmtModify":1680781383909,"authorId":3577325505292125,"author":{"id":3577325505292125,"idStr":"3577325505292125","authorId":3577325505292125,"name":"Tomji","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/532a3a0ad4f7404cd51e8a18187863b7","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":353191393,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Yes i think u r right. the geospace is not ready. EV can only be concentrated in the urban enviroment For now. ruals areas will have trouble equiping ","text":"Yes i think u r right. the geospace is not ready. EV can only be concentrated in the urban enviroment For now. ruals areas will have trouble equiping ","html":"Yes i think u r right. the geospace is not ready. EV can only be concentrated in the urban enviroment For now. ruals areas will have trouble equiping "}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":353105940,"gmtCreate":1616466100680,"gmtModify":1704794449362,"author":{"id":"3578291735174201","authorId":"3578291735174201","name":"HockLai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26c198a858daf0bf415cad356c51c570","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a8758340a08196056f8bc1e54805193","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3578291735174201","authorIdStr":"3578291735174201"},"htmlText":"[財迷]","listText":"[財迷]","text":"[財迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353105940","repostId":1196402560,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196402560","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616134696,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196402560?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-19 14:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"New Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196402560","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, an","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>It's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.</li>\n <li>Last October, I wrote a popular article providing a roadmap for investing in electric vehicles, but since then, so much has changed: new entrants, new strategies, fluctuating valuations, etc.</li>\n <li>So, I updated and greatly expanded the previous EV investment roadmap.</li>\n <li>This update includes a deeper look at valuations for 23 EV companies with revenue projections, when available.</li>\n <li>It also classifies these EV companies into their primary market categories and summarizes their different strategies.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb96acc615cba9c7842860658c019ab1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\">Photo by Sven Loeffler/iStock via Getty Images\nMy article&nbsp;Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap&nbsp;published five months ago, was popular, and some followers have requested an update. Many new EV companies entered the market, most of them through SPACs. Valuations fluctuated wildly, and there has been a great deal of publicity around these companies.\nThis new updated EV investment roadmap is greatly expanded. In addition to updating the strategies and progress of companies previously discussed, I expanded the number of companies covered. This article also groups EV companies into their primary markets, enabling better comparisons and evaluation of market opportunities. In addition, it includes a comparative valuation chart showing every company's market cap with a comparison to projected revenue, where possible. This takes advantage (good or bad) of looking at the long-term revenue forecasts provided in SPAC mergers that public companies can't make.\nIn addition to the EV manufacturers discussed here, there are also EV investment opportunities in charging station companies, battery manufacturers, and battery materials companies. These were covered in the original roadmap and may also be updated in a later article.\nApproximately 2 million EVs were sold in 2019, and although the number declined along with all auto sales in 2020, it is forecasted to increase in 2021 and reach 8-10 million by 2025. Some forecast that EV sales will be greater than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2030, or even earlier. The automobile market appears to be moving toward a historical transformation, and exceptional investment gains can be made by anticipating new emerging industries and investing in the eventual winners of those new industries. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)are obvious examples. Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to create a new emerging industry.\nThere are also significant risks. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to be released in the next three years, which will drive rapid growth in EV sales. However, the expected sales from these new models, as well as the increasing expectations from Tesla, most likely exceed the total projected market. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the companies covered here won't exist five years from now. It reminds me of the internet bubble of the late 1990s when scores of internet-based companies went public with little or no revenue. Almost all of these failed within three years -- however, a couple, including Amazon, went on to enormous success.\nEVs provide a major new investment opportunity with high risks. To succeed, you need to have a clear EV investment roadmap.\nSo, how can you invest in this new emerging market? The EV landscape is complex and investment opportunities are varied. While Tesla is the unquestioned leader in EVs, some consider it overvalued and unlikely to show exceptional returns to new investors. The current U.S. legacy automakers are committed to introducing many new EVs in the next few years, and they have some entrenched advantages with volume manufacturing capabilities, a dealer infrastructure, and loyal customers. There are exciting new EV start-ups in the U.S. that have come public this year, mostly through Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), and there are several interesting publicly traded Chinese EV manufacturers.\nThis new roadmap for EV investment classifies companies into three primary markets segments:\n<ul>\n <li>TheConsumer Retailsegment includes EVs sold to consumers individually, such as SUVs, pickup trucks, sedans, etc.</li>\n <li>TheCommercial Deliverysegment includes local delivery EV vans and trucks sold to fleets.</li>\n <li>TheMedium- and Long-Haul Truckingsegment includes heavier Class 4 - Class 8 trucks, as well as special industrial vehicles.</li>\n</ul>\nIn addition, it categorizesLegacy ManufacturersandChinese EV Companies. This enables investors to evaluate investment opportunities by considering unique opportunities within each market segment.\nThere is an enormous amount of investment optimism for EVs, and retail investors have been aggressively buying into EV stocks with seemingly no regard for valuation. Then there is the additional challenge of valuing companies with no revenue, especially those coming public through SPACs. So, valuation is an important investment consideration.\nSo let's start by looking at an overview of comparative EV valuations.\nEV Investment Valuation Overview\nThe following chart summarizes valuations for 23 EV companies, including several legacy companies. For SPACs, market cap estimates are computed using the pro forma number of shares at closing, otherwise using the valuation of the SPAC prior to closing drastically underestimates the valuation, which may be misleading to novice investors. Price/Sales ratios (market cap divided by revenue) are used to compare valuations. As a benchmark, current P/S ratios vary. For example, auto and truck companies have a ratio of 2.7X. Software companies have the highest ratios of over 10X.\nIn the chart, companies that currently have revenue show current P/S ratios. Where projections are available, projected P/S ratios are computed. A note of caution, however. Many of the EV companies came public through SPACs and published their projections (which public companies cannot do), and many of these are likely to prove unrealistic.\nAll of the longer-term revenue projections come from the company (C) forecasts with a SPAC. Some of these may turn out to be accurate, not many are most likely unrealistic. Some, like Lucid, Faraday, and Arrival forecast hitting more than $10 billion in revenue in a few years, when it took Tesla more than 10. Things are different now and they might achieve these, but they could also find that it will take longer to complete development, ramp up production, and create enough customer demand. Many companies may also find that there will be significant capital requirements to achieve this type of growth, and shareholders will be diluted.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc360dfa7de01516b7f68d5962cf3017\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"883\">\nTesla, the \"gold standard\" in EVs, has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, which many people believe is overvalued. Its market cap is approximately 20X 2020 revenue and 10X estimated 2022 revenue.\nTesla (TSLA)\nIn the U.S., and to a lesser extent in China, Tesla is the dominant EV provider. It has approximately 60% of the U.S. EV market and about 20% of the market in China. I own a Tesla and love it, but an investment in Tesla stock requires getting comfortable with its valuation. Tesla has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, although declining lately, which some consider still overvalued while others see upside potential.\nThe investment opportunity with Tesla is based on the expectation that it will continue to dominate the EV market, or at least maintain significant market share, despite much greater competition from the expected introduction of hundreds of new EV models in the next few years.\nThere is a great deal already published about Tesla, so I'll move on.\nLegacy Automakers\nSome people think that the legacy automakers will simply fade away. Historically, that was the case in some other industries, but it is not going to happen to most automakers. They are not standing still waiting to become obsolete. Most have aggressive strategies to replace ICE vehicles with EVs. GM plans to invest $27 billion and build and launch as many as 30 new EV models by 2025. Ford plans to invest $29 billion in EVs by 2025 and launch as many as 16 EVs in the next two years. Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY)has also committed billions to develop new EVs.\nThe competitive advantage that legacy automakers have in selling their new EVs is their dealer network. Will new EV customers prefer to continue going to their regular auto dealer to buy their new EV?\nAlmost all legacy automakers worldwide are developing and launching EVs including Volkswagen, Peugeot, Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi, Hyundai/Kia. Let's look a little more closely at GM and Ford as the leaders in the U.S.\nGeneral Motors (GM)\nGM has committed to introducing 20 new electric vehicles by 2023, including EVs across Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC, and Buick. It recently announced that it has already sold out the first-year production of its Hummer electric pickup. By mid-decade, it expects to sell a million EVs per year in its two largest markets: North America and China. As a reference point, Tesla reported deliveries of 367,500 vehicles globally in 2019.\nGM has a solid platform strategy for its EVs. It plans on building its EVs using five interchangeable drive units and three different motors from its Ultium Drive System platform. Ultium energy options range from 50 to 200 kWh, which could enable an estimated range of up to 400 miles. Most of its EVs will have 400-volt battery packs and up to 200 kW fast-charging capability while the truck platform will have 800-volt battery packs and 350 kW fast-charging capabilities.\nThe key building blocks of the Ultium battery system are large-scale, high-energy cells. Engineered in partnership with LG Energy Solutions, they use both advanced chemistry and a smart cell design that's optimized for a broad portfolio of EVs. GM engineers and scientists are actively researching and testing new elements in battery chemistry to lower costs and improve charge times. Ultium can contain either vertically- or horizontally-stacked cells to integrate into vehicle design: vertically for trucks, SUVs, and crossovers, or horizontally for cars and performance vehicles. As new chemistry is developed and becomes available, the battery management system could digitally update the modules.\nGM also has other EV opportunities with its BrightDrop commercial EV service and its Cruise subsidiary. BrightDrop will not just sell delivery EVs, it will provide an entire service platform for commercial delivery customers. Its set of electric delivery vehicles starts with the EV600 and includes the BrightDrop EP1, a pod-like electric pallet. SeeGeneral Motors' Aggressive EV/AV Strategies May Payoff Big.\nWith its highest stock price of $61.65, GM's current market cap is approximately $89 billion, increasing primarily because of its progress with EVs. This approximately 3X valuation in 2018, but still only 13% of Tesla.\nFord (F)\nFord is also investing heavily in EVs. It just introduced the Mustang Mach-E, a battery-powered crossover with sports car styling, and plans to introduce an all-electric version of its best-selling F-150 pickup later this year. Also, planned is an electric edition of the full-size Transit van, which has been popular in the commercial delivery market. Ford has confirmed plans to build a luxury Lincoln crossover on a battery-powered platform provided by Rivian. The automaker also plans to introduce two new midsize electric crossovers, one each for the Ford and Lincoln brands by 2023.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd8523e15bccc57790940d4218f7b94e\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"1080\">Mustang Mach-E. Source: Ford\nFord's market cap is approximately $51 billion, twice its previous market cap, and also increasing.\nConsumer Retail EV Companies\nThe consumer retail market has some unique characteristics for new EV companies. Sales are made individually, not in fleets. This diversifies the risk upon launch because only a sufficient number of customers need to be attracted to the new EV. A wave of popularity can provide terrific momentum.\nHowever, the lack of a dealer network can be an impediment. Selling EVs directly to consumers instead of through dealers is prohibited in most states. By law, auto manufacturers can't compete with franchised dealers. These are laws that go back many decades to protect dealers. This can be a major impediment for new companies without established independent dealer franchises. So, new AV companies. like Tesla, need to sell their vehicles online. Tesla has successfully done this, but it took a lot of work and time. Lack of a dealer network also creates impediments in service.\nIn addition, over the next 4-5 years, autonomous capabilities will be increasingly important to luxury vehicles. This may prove to be a challenge to start-up EV companies because they can't afford to develop this technology.\nLet's look closer at the alternative consumer retail EV investments.\nLucid Motors (CCIV)\nLucid was founded in 2007 under the name Atieva and originally focused on building electric vehicle batteries and powertrains for other vehicle manufacturers. The company rebranded itself as Lucid Motors in October 2016 and shifted its strategy to develop an all-electric, high-performance, luxury vehicle. Shortly after that, it encountered financial difficulties and struggled to get short-term funding. In 2018 it raised more than $1 billion in investment, primarily from Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund, and gave up a majority of the company.\nLucid Motors reached an agreement to become a publicly-traded company through a merger with the SPAC Churchill Capital IV Corp., in one of the largest deals SPAC EV deals. The combined company, in which Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund will continue to be the largest shareholder, had a transaction equity value of $11.75 billion (for $10/share). At the same time, it closed a PIPE investment priced at $15 a share, giving it an implied pro forma equity value of $24 billion. Rumors about this deal circulated before the transaction was formally announced, making it one of the most anticipated SPAC deals. The hype and speculation drove up the stock price of Churchill Capital IV Corp. from its opening price of $10 a share to almost $60. I believe that some of this may have been driven by novice SPAC investors who didn't realize that the valuation of CCIV didn't include the eventual valuation of Lucid. The share price dropped more than 30% after the details of the deal were announced. It's also likely that Lucid renegotiated the terms of the merger based on the price jump.\nThe company's first product is the Lucid Air, a well-equipped luxury electric vehicle that features 406 miles of projected range and 480 horsepower with a starting price of $77,400, or $69,900 after the U.S. Federal Tax Credit of $7,500. This new Lucid Air model is positioned as a high-performance, ultra-efficient luxury EV sedan in a line of future vehicles that are expected to include Lucid Air Touring, Grand Touring, and Dream Edition versions.\nThe company plans to begin production and deliveries of the Lucid Air in North America in the second half of 2021. Previously the company aimed to begin deliveries earlier in 2021. It intends to sell the car in Europe in 2022, followed by China in 2023. Lucid vehicles will be produced at its new factory in Casa Grande, Arizona. The company plans to expand the factory in phases in the coming years to have the capacity to produce 365,000 units per year at scale. The initial phase of the $700 million factory construction was completed late last year and will have the capacity to produce 30,000 vehicles a year.\nLucid also apparently has a commitment to build an assembly plant in Saudi Arabia, which was rumored to be a condition of the $1 billion investment from the Saudi public fund. The Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund also provided $600 million in bridge financing and invested in the SPAC deal as well. So, while this assembly plant may be expensive and may not be critical, it will most likely need to happen.\nLucid has ambitious plans to achieve $14 billion in revenue in 2025, and its current stock price at $29.17, which gives it a market cap of more than $46 billion, may already reflect those ambitions. Its market cap is roughly the same as Ford.\nFisker (FSR)\nFisker, which had its origins with Fisker Automotive, is an interesting story that ended in bankruptcy. Henrik Fisker originally co-founded Fisker Automotive in 2007. He was responsible for designing many premium cars such as the Aston Martin. Subsequently, Fisker Automotive had to deal with a Tesla lawsuit against Fisker Automotive alleging it stole Tesla's technology, a controversial $528.7 million conditional loan from the Department of Energy, a recall of its battery produced by A123, and the loss of several hundred vehicles in hurricane Sandy. Henrik Fisker resigned in March 2013 because of disagreements over business strategy and in November 2013, Fisker filed its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case.\nHowever, Henrik Fisker retained the Fisker brand and trademarks, and in 2016 he started another electric vehicle company named Fisker Inc. with the Fisker brand and trademarks. In 2019, Fisker shifted from developing a sports car with a solid-state battery to the Ocean SUV featuring a lithium-ion battery, which it later abandoned for a solid-state battery.\nFisker is positioning itself in a unique segment for those who want the most environmentally friendly EV. While this may be an early growth segment for EVs, it's difficult to estimate its eventual competitive advantage and the size of this environmentally-friendly market segment.\nThe Ocean is a crossover made of recycled metal and plastic with an expected base price of $37,499, and an expected lease of less than $400 a month. Fisker's plan is essentially a lease-only business model that lets customers keep a vehicle for years or return it at any time. It aims to source motors, batteries, and other components from technical partnerships with automakers and will outsource production from existing auto plants. Fisker is currently taking reservations at $250 for the Ocean. It also announced an agreement with Foxconn to jointly develop a vehicle pioneering a new market segment to be sold globally under the Fisker brand commencing in Q4 2023. at the end of 2022. Production will start at Magna Steyr's manufacturing facilities in Europe. At the end of February 2021, it had 12,467 cancellable reservations.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/924a617c90fc3276d7bdab8c64ebfdcf\" tg-width=\"744\" tg-height=\"389\">Fisker Ocean. Source: Fisker\nFisker went public using a SPAC (Spartan Energy). The original combination with SPAQ in October 2020 was valued at $2.9 billion with a cash investment of approximately $1 billion. The stock currently trades at approximately $21 per share, after reaching a high of $28.50, from the original price of $10, which is a market cap of $4.6 billion. Fisker projects $3.3 billion in revenue in 2023. It had almost $1 billion in cash at the end of 2020 and expected to use almost half of this in 2021: $250 million on operating expenses and $250 million in capital investments. If the Ocean is delayed into 2023, Fisker risks missing its revenue objective and will potentially need additional cash to complete development and launch.\nFaraday Future (PSAC)\nFaraday Future was originally established in May 2014 by Chinese businessman Jia Yueting. It is headquartered in Los Angeles and has offices in Silicon Valley, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu. Faraday Future also had a turbulent history. In 2016, it struggled financially, and in 2017 some key executives departed over a dispute about financial issues. They later founded Canoo.\nIn December 2018 the company announced layoffs due to a cash crunch and financial troubles. The company's founder Jia Yueting filed for personal bankruptcy in the United States' federal court in Delaware on October 14, 2019. Following Jia's personal bankruptcy, he decided to step down from his role as CEO of Faraday Future in order to assume a new position as the Chief Product and User Officer. He was replaced as CEO by Carsten Breitfeld, the former CEO at rival electric vehicle startup Byton.\nSomehow, Faraday was able to raise $2.3 billion in private funding over 5 rounds from a variety of investors. In early 2018, it received $1.5 billion in funding from an undisclosed investor from Hong Kong.\nFaraday's flagship product offering will be the FF 91, featuring 1,050 HP, 0-60 mph in less than 2.4 seconds, zero gravity seats with the largest 60-degree reclining angles, and a user experience designed to create a mobile, connected, and luxurious living space. The FF 91 is targeted to launch in 2022.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e38bfb3211c72bb73bc26f2ebe296fe\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"854\">FF 91. Source: Faraday Future\nIts strategic partners include one of China's top three OEMs and a critical Chinese city, which the company believes will help establish its presence in the Chinese vehicle market.\nFaraday Future plans several cars based on its Variable Platform Architecture. FF 91 is the first production vehicle and flagship model. Pricing will range between $120,000 and upwards of $200,000, which places it against formidable opponents. Faraday Future is already looking forward to expanding its range with a pair of smaller models named FF 81 and FF 71. The FF 81 is planned to be priced at $75,000 to 95,000 with a 2023 release. The FF 71 is planned to be priced at $45,000 to $65,000 with a planned release of 2024.\nThe Primary Manufacturing Facility for FF 91 is in Hanford, CA with contract manufacturing for future models in Gunsan, South Korea.\nFaraday Future is planning high-Level automation with a Level-3 capable system using a redundant safety architecture based on NVIDIA Xavier System-on-a-chip. It will be capable of highway auto-drive and hardware ready for advanced auto-drive. It is targeting full autonomous valet parking &amp; summon in any parking lot or structure. Eventually, it expects full auto-drive, including full 360˚ sensor coverage for advanced auto-drive &amp; auto-park features.\nIn January 2021, Faraday Future announced that the company would go public through a reverse merger with the special purpose acquisition company Property Solutions Acquisition Corp. (PSAC). The combined company will be valued at $3.4 billion. Faraday Future is expected to set up contract manufacturing operations in China through their partnership with Geely. Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn is also expected to serve as an additional strategic partner.\nFaraday Future projects $10.5 billion in revenue in 2024 and $21.5 billion in 2025. Revenue is expected to start in 2022 with the delivery of 2,400 vehicles for $504 million. Most likely these projections could prove to be optimistic. At a current stock price of approximately $12.80, it has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nLordstown Motors (RIDE)\nLordstown Motors based in Lordstown, Ohio, was originally founded in 2018 by Steve Burns, the former CEO of Workhorse Group. The company licensed technology from Workhorse in return for royalties and a 10% ownership. Lordstown is named after the famous GM Lordstown manufacturing plant, which it acquired in November 2019 in an unusual transaction. GM announced that it was closing the plant and was under a great deal of pressure for that decision. So, GM \"sold\" the plant to a company that was renamed Lordstown for an estimated $20 million that it loaned to the acquiring company. Subsequently, the sale was redefined to be part of a $75 million investment by GM, of which $50 million was an in-kind exchange for the plant.\nLordstown went public through the SPAC DiamondPeak Holdings Corp. in 2020. It currently has more than 400 employees.\nIts first product is the Lordstown Endurance, a full-sized EV pickup truck. Lordstown is positioning Endurance for the pickup fleet market segment. The expected price is $52,000+, and it claimed to have more than 100,000 pre-orders by January 2021. However, a recent research article published by a short seller claimed \"Our research has revealed that Lordstown's order book consists of fake or entirely non-binding orders, from customers that generally do not even have fleets of vehicles.\" Lordstown is disputing that article.\nIt believes the fleet pickup market segment is underserved with no current EV-focused competition. It estimates that the full-sized pick-up truck fleet market is 1.2 million vehicles per year in the U.S., but it's more fragmented than other truck fleets. Pickup \"fleets\" tend to be much smaller and local, so there may not be much of a market distinction for a small company buying several EV pickups from a traditional auto dealer. About half of the total U.S. pickup market is classified as fleet sales, meaning more than one.\nEven though Lordstown is targeting the commercial fleet market, it is a similar product to the Ford EV F-150. So I classify it in the consumer EV category. It is a class 2 vehicle. Lordstown also may enter the SUV market in the longer-term.\nThe Endurance will compete against future models from Rivian and Tesla, as well as Ford and GM in ICE pick-ups and their upcoming EV pick-ups. Ford plans on selling its EV F-150 in mid-2022. Initial production of the Endurance is expected in the second half of 2021, so it may have a short market advantage. Nevertheless, it forecasts selling 65,000 vehicles in 2023 and 107,000 in 2024. These estimates could be a large percentage of the EV pick-up market in those years.\nAt the SPAC merger, the implied valuation for Lordstown was $1.6 billion, including a $500 million PIPE and the $75 million by GM. Lordstown's financial projections appear to be aggressive. It projects to start shipping the Endurance in late 2021 with projected revenue in 2022 of $1.7 billion, increasing to $5.8 billion in 2024. Its stock price at approximately $13.60 values the company at a market cap of approximately $2.2 billion. The value of the company depends on the likelihood of achieving its projections.\nA fleet sales strategy makes sense for Lordstown since it would be too expensive to build a retail sales and service capability. However, it's not clear that this will become a distinct competitive advantage. Some small fleets may still prefer to buy their EV pickups from established local dealers with service capabilities.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nCanoo started as Evelozcity in 2017 and rebranded as Canoo in the spring of 2019. Canoo is a Los Angeles-based company that develops electric vehicles. It has over 350 employees. Canoo has designed a modular electric platform purpose-built to deliver maximum vehicle interior space, which is adaptable to support a wide range of vehicle applications for consumers and businesses. Canoo expects to launch its first consumer model in 2022, simply named the Canoo that will be available by subscription, followed shortly after by a multi-purpose delivery vehicle and a sports vehicle, each built off of the same underlying platform. Canoo went public using a SPAC (Hennessy Capital Acquisition) and now trades as GOEV.\nCanoo's all-electric skateboard-like platform is designed to support both consumer retail and commercial vehicle configurations. The EV leverages Canoo's flat skateboard architecture for a high level of usable interior space. Its commercial vehicle program, expected in 2023, addresses a projected $50B+ last-mile delivery market with an EV platform that maximizes cargo volume.\nHyundai Motor Group said it would jointly develop an electric vehicle platform with the company.\nCanoo's platform strategy is interesting. It could be used as an EV platform for custom fleets of delivery vehicles. It has no AV development, but it claims to be \"AV Ready\" which could be useful for AV companies wanting to build custom AV delivery fleets.\nIts all-electric multi-purpose delivery vehicle is expected to be priced starting at approximately $33,000. It is based on Canoo's proprietary electric platform and will be offered in two initial size variants, with others to follow. Limited availability will begin in 2022, with scaled production and launch planned for 2023. Customers can pre-order the multi-purpose delivery vehicle for a refundable deposit of $100 per vehicle\nIt plans to offer two multi-purpose delivery vehicles: the MPDV1 and the larger MPDV2. The first has a 200-foot cargo volume and a range of 130-200 miles. It offers more capacity than today's ICE delivery vehicles at an affordable price with urban mobility enabled by a space-efficient footprint. The vehicle is also designed to fit within many height-restricted areas like parking garages.\nThe MPDV2 has a cargo volume of 450 feet and a range of 90-190 miles. Its roof and step-in height enable individuals to easily walk-in the vehicle and accommodate a standing position while inside.\nThe original SPAC transaction provided approximately $600 million, with a pro forma equity value of approximately $2.4 billion. Like other SPAC mergers, its stock price has fluctuated. It currently trades at about $15.90 per share for a market cap of approximately $3.7 billion. Canoo projects $2.0 billion in revenue in 2025 from about $500 million in engineering services, $1.2 billion from its consumer vehicle subscriptions, and the remainder from its commercial program. Canoo expects revenue of more than $300 million in 2022 after the launch of its lifestyle consumer vehicle.\nSince its first products are aimed at consumers, as is most of its forecasted 2025 revenue, I categorize it primarily as a consumer EV company. However, I think the design of that Canoo vehicle may not attract enough customers. More importantly, its subscription service way of selling its EV to consumers is risky. I think it has more potential in the commercial market, however, a dual strategy (consumer and commercial) is challenging. I like its skateboard platform design and that could prove to be a competitive advantage.\nRivian\nAlthough not yet public, I include Rivian because it has plans for an IPO as soon as Sept 2021, although it could slip into 2022. There are rumors that the company is targeting a market valuation of approximately $50B. Rivian has already raised more than $8 billion to date from Amazon, Ford, T. Rowe Price, and others.\nRivian has developed and vertically integrated a connected electric platform that can be flexibly applied to a range of applications, including the company's adventure products, as well as B2B products such as the Amazon last-mile delivery vans. The company's initial products, the R1T and R1S, provide a combination of performance, off-road capability, and utility. These vehicles will be produced at Rivian's manufacturing plant in Normal, Ill., with customer deliveries expected to begin in summer 2021. The launch of the R1S three-row electric SUV will follow in August.\nAdditional lower-priced models are being planned. The expected R2 series would include at least two smaller electric vehicles to coincide with the smaller platform, then another platform for R3.\nCommercial Delivery EV Companies\nEV truck companies differ based on the type of truck they are developing. The technology and markets are very different, so I separate them into two categories. The first category includes commercial delivery vehicles.\nCompanies making EV delivery vehicles have some major advantages that could make them good investments. First, delivery vehicles typically travel less than 250 miles during a day, so they can be conveniently recharged overnight. Secondly, they are typically sold in large quantities to fleets. This means that building a retail sales infrastructure is not necessary. It only requires a small salesforce. In addition, maintenance can also be provided at the fleet's operational center, so not as many service centers are required.\nThe disadvantage in this market is that there are a relatively small number of customers that buy in large volumes, so if the EV manufacturer can't get enough large customers, they may not be able to stay in business. GM estimates the combined market opportunity for parcel and food delivery, as well as reverse logistics, in the U.S. will be more than $850 billion by 2025.\nThe commercial market is expected to be a major growth area for EVs. Other start-up automakers like Rivian as well as legacy automakers such as Ford, Daimler, and GM have announced plans to enter the segment. GM recently announced its BrightDrop ecosystem for commercial customers that includes an all-new electric delivery van, the EV600 available by the end of 2021, as well as an integrated autonomous pallet and related services.\nThis group of EV companies focuses primarily on commercial delivery. In general, these are in the light-duty trucks category, although it also includes some medium-duty trucks. This generally includes the following commercial truck classes:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 1: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 0-6,000 pounds or 0-2,722 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 2: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 6,001-10,000 pounds or 2,722-4,536 kilograms.1</li>\n <li>Class 3: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 10,001-14,000 pounds or 4,536-6,350 kilograms.</li>\n</ul>\nIt can also include somewhat larger medium-duty EV delivery trucks:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.</li>\n</ul>\nEV delivery trucks also have an advantage over ICE vehicles because they can have a greater delivery storage space. Smaller buses and transit vehicles are also included in this category.\nLast-mile package delivery is not an immediate-term autonomous vehicle opportunity because it requires a delivery person to be on the truck anyway.\nWorkhorse Group (WKHS)\nWorkhorse has been a public company for ten years. Originally AMP Electric Vehicles, it was established in 2007 as a developmental-stage vehicle electrification company, focusing on conversions. AMP Electric Vehicles went public in 2010 trading on the OTC market under the AMPD symbol. When the economic benefits of conversion became less certain, it pivoted away from passenger vehicles and began to focus on electrifying commercial vehicles. AMP acquired the Workhorse brand and the Workhorse custom chassis assembly plant in Union City. In March of 2013, AMP formally changed its name to Workhorse Group Incorporated.\nThe Company designs and builds a last-mile delivery electric vehicle. The C-Series EVs cover the larger size of commercial delivery vehicles in Classes 3-5. As part of its solutions, it also develops cloud-based, real-time telematics performance monitoring systems. It sells its vehicles to fleet customers directly and through its primary distributor, Ryder Systems. It is currently focused on bringing the C-Series electric delivery truck to market and fulfilling the existing backlog of orders.\nThe C-Series looks like a viable EV replacement for the 350,000 last-mile delivery vehicles sold in the U.S. annually. It recently announced an increased driving range from 100 miles to 160, which should open more market opportunities. It has a viable short-term go-to-market strategy selling fleets to delivery companies. It currently has test vehicles with UPS, DHL, FedEx, Amazon, and Walmart.\nWorkhorse recently lost out on the United States Postal Services Next Generation Delivery Vehicle project, however, it is in the process of challenging this decision. Additionally, its investment in Lordstown also provides an indirect investment opportunity. On November 7, 2019, the Company entered a transaction with Lordstown Motors to grant LMC a perpetual and worldwide license to certain intellectual property relating to its W-15 electric pickup truck platform and related technology in exchange for royalties, equity interest (approximately 10%) in LMC, and other considerations. This was a $320 million asset for Workhorse at the end of 2020.\nWorkhorse received a significant increase in orders in Q4/2020 but built just seven trucks in the fourth quarter due to production systems and supply chain issues. Workhorse plans to continue to take it slow, striving to build three of its composite-body battery-electric trucks a day in March with a plan to reach 10 trucks a day by the end of June. This makes its original 2021 goal of producing 1,800 trucks unlikely. It partnered with Hitachi and Hitachi Capital America (\"HCA\") to improve the Company's manufacturing, operational, and supply chain capabilities as well as to develop a national dealer network to support Workhorse's sales with vehicle financing options for both dealers and customers.\nWorkhorse has a market cap of approximately $1.9 billion. While Workhorse had ongoing revenue, unlike many other new EV companies, its revenue is still insignificant. It had a revenue of $1.4 million in 2020 and $377,000 in 2019. It has a backlog of over 8,000 vehicles but doesn't expect to be able to build many of those in 2021. It raised $270 million in capital over several financings, providing the Company with additional capital to build its backlog. It had cash of $215 million as of March 1, 2021. Because Workhorse is a traditional public company, it hasn't made long-term financial projections like SPAC-based companies.\nElectric Last Mile (FIII)\nElectric Last Mile, based in Troy Michigan, was founded by Jason Luo, former CEO of Ford China before it was acquired by China's Ningbo Joyson Electronic for $920 million in 2016, including James Taylor, former CEO of GM's Hummer brand and former CEO of electric car maker Karma Automotive. Taylor serves as the company's top executive with Luo as the company's chairman.\nThe company plans to launch a small electric delivery van (class 1-2), called the UD-1, in the third quarter of 2021, and then introduce an Urban Utility vehicle (Class 2-3) in 2022. These are expected to compete with Workhorse, Rivian, Canoo, as well as the Ford eTransit and the GMC BV1, none of which is expected to be a Class 1 vehicle.\nThe company says it has 30,000 preorders for its van, representing more than $1 billion in sales. Electric Last Miles vehicles will be based on Sokon's commercial van made in China through a joint venture with Dongfeng Automobile Co Ltd. in order to accelerate development time.\nElectric Last Mile (ELM) is expected to manufacture the vans in a former General Motors Co. Hummer plant in Mishawaka, Ind., that the company is acquiring from China's Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co. Ltd. The plant has the capacity to produce 100,000 vehicles annually with plans to build approximately 4,000 UD-1 vans by the end of 2021. The UD-1 has a starting price of $32,500 and a range of 150 miles. The battery for the vehicle is expected to be supplied by the Chinese battery company CATL.\nELM believes that it has a competitive advantage because its first vehicle, the ELM Urban Delivery, is scheduled to be available in 2021. It is based on a proven, existing platform developed and sold by Sokon Group in the Asian market, where there are 30,000 of these electric delivery vehicles driving 1.5 million miles every day. At the close of the business combination, ELM will be an independent, U.S. company producing electric vehicles in the U.S. with Sokon Group providing access to its know-how, parts supply, and field and service data.\nELM expects that the Urban Delivery vehicle will be the first electric delivery vehicle coming to market in the class 1 category (GVW of 6,000 lbs or less) in the U.S. It will also have 35% more carrying volume compared to similar ICE delivery vehicles, a critical part of the value proposition. It also anticipates that its price and greater carrying volume will allow it to take market share from the class 2 category of vehicles as well.\nIts crossover product portfolio strategy targets commercial delivery vehicles spanning from class 1 to class 3, which represents over 80% of the last mile market.\nELM anticipates $122 million in revenue in 2021, rapidly increasing to $3 billion in 2025. The price of FIII stock increased immediately following its announcement with Electric Last Mile, rising more than 40% to $14.50, but now it has dropped closer to the original deal price to $10.25 for a market cap of approximately $1.5 billion.\nGreenPower Motor Company (GP)\nGreenPower Motor Company Inc. is a Canadian battery-electric bus manufacturer with multiple models of high- and low-floor vehicles, including transit buses, school buses, and shuttles. GreenPower offers commercial vehicles for delivery, public transit, schools, vanpooling, micro-transit, shuttles, and is developing a capability of autonomous operation. It went public on August 28, 2020.\nIn 2014 GreenPower launched its first purpose-built, battery-electric bus, the EV350, 40-foot transit bus. GreenPower received its first order in 2017 for ten EV350s from the City of Porterville, California.\nGreenPower's electric buses are purpose-built and designed to be all-electric, allowing it to put the battery and propulsion system in optimized locations that provide weight and structural advantages. Its primary EV is the EV Star with more than 120 vehicles delivered. It comes in several variations:\n<ul>\n <li>EV Star - Up to 19 passengers</li>\n <li>EV Star Plus - Up to 24 passengers</li>\n <li>EV Star ADA - Passenger and curbside lift for ADA</li>\n <li>EV Star Cargo - 5,000 pounds of load</li>\n <li>EV Star Cargo Plus - 570 cubic feet of cargo space.</li>\n</ul>\nIts EV school bus seats up to 90 students and has a range of up to 150 miles.\nGreenPower had revenue of $13.5 million in 2020 It has about $21 million in cash. It's an interesting alternative since it is already shipping EVs, has revenue, and also has a lower market cap of less than $1 billion. Since it did a traditional IPO, it hasn't published longer-term financial forecasts.\nArrival (CIIC)\nArrival was founded in 2015 in London to make a variety of commercial electric vehicles. It has approximately 1,200 employees across 11 cities in 8 countries. In November 2020, Arrival and the SPAC CIIG entered into a business combination agreement with an implied valuation of $5.39 billion.\nArrival plans on releasing four commercial EVs over the next few years.\n<ul>\n <li>Q4/2021: An electric bus for 8-125 passengers and a range of 240-400km</li>\n <li>Q3/2022: An electric delivery van with a payload of 975-2,000kg and a range of 150-340km</li>\n <li>2022: A larger electric van with a payload of 4,000 kg and a range of 190-400km</li>\n <li>2023: a small vehicle platform with a range of 100-300km.</li>\n</ul>\nThis mix provides a nice diversified portfolio of EVs. Arrival claims to have received orders from UPS for 10,000 vans. It plans a unique flexible manufacturing approach using micro-factories with each projected to manufacture 10,000 vans per year. All of its vehicles use a modular skateboard electric platform.\nArrival ambitiously projects $14.1 billion in revenue in 2024. Half of that revenue is expected from delivery vans, 22% from buses, and the rest from the large van and its small vehicle platform. With CIIC's stock price at $24.80 per share, Arrival's current market cap is relatively high at approximately $15.0 billion. Justifying its market cap depends on its ability to release, sell, and produce its four commercial EVs.\nProterra (ACTC)\nProterra is a commercial electric vehicle company with over a decade of production experience. The Company has designed an end-to-end, flexible technology platform that claims to deliver higher performance and a low total cost of ownership to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end customers.\nProterra, Inc., was originally founded in Golden, Colorado, by Dale Hill in 2004. Later the company wanted to take the lead in creating zero-emission, U.S.-based transit buses. In 2010 it moved its manufacturing plant from Golden, Colorado to Greenville, South Carolina. In 2015, Proterra was awarded a $3 million grant from the California Energy Commission to fund the design, development, and construction of the company's battery-electric transit bus manufacturing line in the City of Industry, California. It moved its headquarters from Greenville, South Carolina, to Burlingame, California, in October 2015. Proterra raised more than $600 million in funding.\nIt is going public through the SPAC ArcLight (ACTC) with a pro forma valuation of $1.6 billion. Upon completion of the transaction, Proterra expects to have up to $825 million in cash to fund growth initiatives, including R&amp;D and the expansion of its next-generation battery program.\nProterra has three complementary businesses:\n<ul>\n <li>Proterra Powered: Delivering battery systems and electrification solutions to commercial vehicle manufacturers</li>\n <li>Proterra Transit:Providing an electric transit bus OEMs</li>\n <li>Proterra Energy:Offering turnkey charging and energy management solutions.</li>\n</ul>\nThe company's battery systems have been proven in more than 16 million service miles driven by its fleet of transit vehicles and validated through partnerships with commercial vehicle OEMs. Proterra has produced and delivered more than 300 megawatt-hours of battery systems, more than 550 heavy-duty electric transit buses, and installed 54 megawatts of charging systems.\nProterra expected $193 million of revenue in 2020, with an estimated $750 million in existing orders and backlog. It projects $2.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with about 1/3 coming from its Transit business, and 2/3 From Powered &amp; Energy. At ACTC's current stock price of $17.85, Proterra has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nRivian\nRivian (see earlier description in consumer retail) will also compete in the commercial delivery market. It has been working with Amazon (a major investor) to build large electric delivery vans for Prime. Developed specifically for Amazon, a small fleet of Prime vans is on the road now, testing deliveries to customers and gathering feedback. In late fall, it could grow to a large fleet as Rivian ramps up the volume.\nThe EV range of 150 miles is tailored to Amazon's use cycle to optimize the size, weight, and cost of the commercial vehicle. Rivian has three sizes of batteries, but Amazon is starting with just one of them.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nSee the previous summary under consumer retail EV.\nMedium and Long-Haul Trucking EV Companies\nCompanies developing medium- and long-haul EV trucks face a more difficult challenge with battery range. These trucks haul much more weight than commercial delivery vehicles and because they are designed for long distances, they can't stop every 200-300 miles for recharging.\nFor this reason, many of these companies are using unique hybrid technologies for their trucks. The EV trucks in this category are primarily heavy-duty but also include some medium-duty trucks and specialty vehicles. A couple of the companies focus on retrofitting trucks to be electric.\nMedium-Duty Trucks\nThe medium-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 4, 5, and 6:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 6: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 19,501-26,000 pounds or 8,846-11,793 kilograms.1</li>\n</ul>\nHeavy-Duty Trucks\nThe heavy-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 7 and 8:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 7: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 26,001 to 33,000 pounds or 11,794-14,969 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 8: This class of trucks has a GVWR of greater than 33,001 pounds or 14,969 kilograms and includes all tractor-trailers.</li>\n</ul>\nThe Tesla Semi is a battery vehicle planned for a range of 300 or 500 miles and a speed of 60 MPH with 80,000 lbs of cargo. Tesla plans to start shipping the Semi later this year when it expects to have sufficient cell volume to meet its needs with the production of its 4680 battery pack.\nNikola(NASDAQ:NKLA)\nNikola has been a very controversial company. Founded in 2015, it originally had two different strategies. Its primary strategy is to lease fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) Class-8 heavy trucks and provide the refueling infrastructure to corporate customers. Its second strategy was to develop the Badger EV truck using GM technology.\nNikola originally merged with a SPAC to go public, at an enterprise value of approximately $3.3 billion. On June 6th, 2020, its market cap jumped to more than $30 billion, then later it dropped because of problems with its originally planned deal with GM.\nNikola originally expected a deal with General Motors that included the production of the Nikola Badger EV pickup truck. The proposed arrangement was that GM would take a $2 billion equity stake in Nikola and in return would engineer and produce the Badger. In November 2020, GM and Nikola scrapped the original arrangement. Now it appears that GM will supply Nikola with only its Hydrotec hydrogen fuel-cell technology to integrate into the EV manufacturer's commercial class 7 and class 8 zero-emission semi-trucks. So, the Badger is probably dead.\nNikola now sees semi-trucks as the company's \"core business\" and fuel cells as an increasingly important segment of the semi-truck market thanks to their efficiency in weight and consumption. It expects to begin testing by the end of 2021.\nIt has received pre-orders from Anheuser-Busch and a few other companies, but it doesn't expect deliveries until 2023. Hydrogen fueling stations are key to its strategy, both providing a source of revenue and necessary fueling infrastructure for the trucks to operate, but they also cost a lot. In its March 2020 investor deck, Nikola said a single station capable of fueling 210 trucks a day would cost $16.6 million. Its initial planned network of 700 stations would cost roughly $11.6 billion.\nNikola was also accused of misrepresentation, and its executive chairman and founder stepped down.\nAt the time of the SPAC merger, it projected an optimistic forecast of more than $3 billion in revenue by 2024, with a net income of $145 million. Most of that revenue was expected to come from its Badger truck, which is no longer in the plans. Yet its market cap is still almost $6 billion.\nHyliion (HYLN)\nHyliion, founded in 2015 in Austin, went public in October 2020 through the SPAC Tortoise Acquisition Corp. (SHLL). In March 2019, automotive parts manufacturer Dana Inc. made an equity investment into Hyliion, and together they are manufacturing and marketing Class 8 EVs to Dana's customers, including Volvo, Navistar, and Peterbilt.\nHyliion's strategy is unique, and a very different strategy from Nikola. Essentially it generates electricity onboard the truck using compressed natural gas (CNG). This should be a benefit for longer-range trucking. Hyliion's Hypertruck concept involves an all-electric drivetrain utilizing Dana's electric motor, inverter, and axle technologies. The truck's batteries are fueled by onboard tanks of CNG. With some 700 CNG stations already operating nationwide, it believes that there no need to build out expensive superchargers or hydrogen infrastructure.\nKuwait-based logistics company, Agility, has already placed an order for 1,000 Hypertrucks with initial deliveries targeted in 2022. Combined with a fully electric drivetrain and a natural gas-powered onboard generator to recharge the battery, the Hypertruck ERX will provide more than 1,000 miles of range.\nHyliion will eventually compete with Nikola (FCEV) and the Tesla battery-based Semi, but it plans to have a longer range and lower operating costs. Its HyperTruck ERX is expected to be available in 2021. It also has a hybrid-electric truck.\nThe combination with SHLL had an estimated market cap of about $1.5 billion, with approximately $530 million going to the company, including a $325 million fully committed PIPE. At approximately $13.50 per share, its current market cap is approximately $2.2 billion, significantly down from its peak. Hyliion projects $2 billion in revenue in 2024, which it claims is only about 2% of the addressable market.\nXL Fleet (XL)\nXL Fleet is a 10-year old company that went public through the SPAC Pivotal. XL is different because it provides fleet electrification modifications for ICE trucks across a wide range of vehicle classes (class 2-5) and types. It has over 200 of the largest commercial and municipal fleets as customers, with more than 3,200 XL systems deployed and over 130 million miles driven by customers to date. XL's customer base includes FedEx, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Verizon, the City of Boston, Seattle Fire Department, Yale University, and Harvard University.\nXL's business model is essentially retrofitting existing trucks to be hybrids and then later expanding into fully electric truck conversions. It claims to be creating a fully integrated platform for this. It remains to be seen if the retrofitting business will continue to grow or will it diminish when more trucks are designed and manufactured with EV capabilities.\nUnlike some other EV companies that have no revenue yet because they are still developing products, XL is more of a small company doing low-volume retrofits. It had $7.2 million in revenue in 2019, $21 million in 2020, and estimates $76 million in 2021, but it forecasts $1.3 billion in revenue in 2024 in its investor presentation. It plans to do this by expanding its product line from hybrid to plug-in hybrid to fully electric across a broader range of trucks. It claims to have a $220 million sales pipeline for the next 12 months.\nShort-seller, Muddy Waters, claimed after talking to former XL Fleet employees, that it believed the company significantly exaggerated its order backlog, that the return on investment for the company's products was likely negative, and that it would not be able to compete with big car makers on electrification. The company thoroughly refuted these claims.\nThe original enterprise valuation was approximately $1.4 billion at a $10 share price for the merger. Its price jumped by about 35% but has since gone back down to $12.40 for a market cap of about $1.8 billion. Although XL Fleet has revenue and other EV companies don't, this may not be an advantage. It appears to be a small company for many years that has gone public at a high valuation with grand plans. The risks are in its ability to make a jump from $76 million in 2021 to $1.3 billion in 2024, as well as the question about retrofitting being replaced by new EV trucks by then.\nXos (NGAC)\nXos Trucks specializes in the field of manufacturing fully electric commercial vehicles. It features a software platform that is designed to accommodate an extensive variety of medium-duty bodies, wheelbase, and range requirements up to 200 miles. It was founded in 2016 and headquartered in North Hollywood, California. It received $20 million of investment in 2020 and now is going public through a merger with the SPAC ExtGen Acquisition Corporation (NGAC) at an estimated proforma value of $1.965 billion.\nIts focus is on medium- and heavy-duty last mile and return-to-base segments (class 5/6, class 6/7, and class 7/8) commercial fleets and specialty vehicles. Some vehicles are currently in production and in regular on-road operations with key fleet customers, and it claimed 6,000 unit orders in backlog.\nIts MD-platform is for classes 5-6 for pickup and delivery. Its HD X-Platform is an adaptable chassis for highway, vocational, and severe work conditions. Its market is for customers with highly predictable routes that allow for batteries designed for a more limited range. A significantly larger frame and smaller battery pack allow for reduced density.\nXos has a bundled all-in-one offering that allows fleets to access all the tools and services they need to go electric with a single point of contact at a fixed monthly expense.\nXos had $3 million in revenue in 2020 and estimates $14 million in 2021. However, it forecasts $5.2 billion in revenue in 2025. At the current stock price of $10.30, its market cap is approximately $2 billion, about the same as its original SPAC transaction.\nLion Electric (NGA)\nLion Electric is a Canadian company founded by Marc Bédard in 2008. Its focus is to be a leader in designing, developing, and manufacturing purpose-built urban electric vehicles; vehicles that are specifically designed as delivery trucks, refuse trucks, bucket trucks, moving trucks, school buses, and shuttle buses. It has over 300 all-electric vehicles on the road today.\nIn November 2020, it announced that it was going public through the SPAC NGA. The transaction had an estimated pro forma enterprise value of $1.5 billion.\nIt plans on seven new truck models and one new school bus, for a total of 15 all-electric vehicles, representing a full line-up from class 5 to class 8 electric trucks and a full line-up of electric school buses. Its vehicles are produced at its existing manufacturing plant, which has the capacity for the production of up to 2,500 vehicles per year. It intends to open a new plant in the U.S. capable of delivering over 20,000 Lion trucks and buses per year by 2022.\nIts all-electric class 6 and class 8 commercial urban trucks combine power, comfort, and modern technology. Custom-built chassis and cabin designed specifically for an all-electric heavy-duty vehicle. The LionC is an all-electric Type C school bus manufactured in North America. The body and chassis were specifically designed to deliver optimal performance. The LionM is an all-electric midi/minibus that meets paratransit and public transportation requirements. Created and designed specifically for the paratransit market, the is spacious and offers unique features that provide enhanced security and accessibility to the end-users.\nLion Electric had $29 million in revenue in 2020 and expects $204 million in 2021. It forecasts revenue to jump to $3.6 billion a few years later in 2024. Its current market cap is approximately $3.6 billion based on its current stock price of $18.33.\nLightning eMotors (GIK)\nLightning eMotors, formerly Lightning Systems, was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Loveland, Colorado. It provides fleet electrification for familiar commercial vehicle platforms by retrofitting them with its electric powertrains. Lightning eMotors produces electric fleet medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including delivery trucks, shuttle buses, passenger vans, ambulances, bucket trucks, chassis-cab models, and city transit buses. It focuses on urban commercial zero-emission vehicles with a full range of class 3 through class 7 battery-electric and fuel-cell electric vehicles.\nLighting eMotors helps commercial fleets achieve their sustainability goals by offering zero-emission battery-electric vans, trucks, and buses based on familiar, proven vehicles from manufacturers such as Ford and GM. It works with customers, to help them identify their unique commercial electric vehicle, charging, and grant support needs.\nThe Lightning products include integrated all-electric powertrains for the Ford Transit 350HD passenger and cargo vans, Ford E-450 shuttle bus and cutaway models, Ford F-59 step/food van, Ford F-550 cargo trucks and buses, Chevrolet 6500XD Low Cab Forward model, and 30-foot, 35-foot, and 40-foot transit buses.\nLightning has 120 vehicles on the road, and 1,500 vehicles already on order from customers. In addition to making vehicles and powertrains, Lightning also provides a full suite of charging solutions for customers.\nThe deal with GIK has an enterprise value of $650 million, although there is also an Earnout of 20.0% of total pro forma shares outstanding to Lightning eMotors shareholders if the stock crosses certain price thresholds.\nAt the current price, of $11.73, GIK has a market cap of approximately $1 billion, a little more than the original transaction valuation. Similar to XL Fleet, Lightning has the risk that retrofitting may only be an interim business opportunity until more EV trucks are produced.\nPublic Chinese EV Companies\nChina will be the biggest EV market opportunity, and EV start-ups may do better there because there isn't as much entrenched competition from domestic auto companies. China is already the largest EV market in the world, with almost a million EVs sold in 2019. Its EV market represents almost half of the global EV sales volume and is much larger than the U.S. market.\nThe Chinese government has ambitions to become a global leader in new energy vehicles. Soon after the coronavirus outbreak subsided within the country, Chinese authorities announced new policies to support the auto and electric vehicle industries.\nThese Chinese companies are traded through American depository shares (ADS) that contain certain risks. There are financial reporting and transparency risks with these companies, and on top of that, the newer companies are being classified as \"emerging growth\" companies that are already exempt from certain transparency requirements set out in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Like the previous EV stock, these stocks have also been very volatile.\nIn addition to legacy auto manufacturers like BYD, there are also three Chinese EV companies that are publicly traded through American depositary shares.\nBYD Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:BYDDY)\nBYD, which means build your dreams, is the automotive subsidiary of the Chinese multinational BYD Co Ltd. It was founded in January 2003, following BYD Company's acquisition of Tsinchuan Automobile Company. The company produces automobiles, buses, electric bicycles, forklifts, rechargeable batteries, and trucks. The current model range of automobiles includes electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and petrol-engined vehicles. Thirteen years ago, on the advice of his famously skeptical lieutenant, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett made a $232 million investment in BYD, a relatively unknown Chinese car company.\nBy parlaying BYD's rechargeable battery technology into a fast-growing carmaking operation, it gained a foothold in the fledgling electric vehicle market, building longer-lasting batteries and cheaper vehicles than American and Japanese manufacturers were managing to do at the time. In BYD, Buffett and Munger believed they had found a company with a shot at one day becoming the largest player in a global automobile market that was inevitably going electric.\nBYD's start to 2021 was strong with 19,871 plug-in electric cars sold in January in China, including hybrid plug-ins. That was a big increase over 2020 but not as much as 2019.\nLI Auto (LI)\nLixiang, formerly known as Chehejia (\"Car and Home\"), was founded in 2015 and went public in the U.S. on July 30th, 2020. It is a Beijing-based electric-vehicle startup with vertically integrated manufacturing. It designs, researches, manufactures, sells, and offers services featuring a few models of electric vehicles.\nThe company's SUVs are hybrids of a sort. They use electric motors (one on the front axle and one on the rear), but those motors are powered by a combination of a 40.5kWh battery packanda 1.2-liter turbocharged engine paired to a 45-liter fuel tank and a 100kW electric generator, which generates power for the battery pack in real-time. The idea is that the car can be driven for about 100 miles on battery power alone, but it has a total range of nearly 500 miles when leveraging the combustion engine generator.\nThe Company's primary product is an SUV under its brand Li ONE. It also sells peripheral products and provides related services, such as charging stalls, vehicle internet connection services, and extended lifetime warranties. Li Auto is looking to sell a variety of SUVs built on its hybrid technology that range from around $21,000 to about $70,000. The company started shipping its first model in late 2019. It's a midsize SUV is well-appointed and has lots of touchscreens and technology. A full-size premium version is planned for release in 2022.\nDeliveries of Li ONEs were 14,464 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a 67.0% quarter-over-quarter increase and setting a new quarterly record. Deliveries for the full year 2020 reached 32,624 vehicles. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $635 million.\nLI auto went public on July 30th, 2020, raising $1.1 billion at an initial price of $15.50 per share but quickly reached almost $24. It is currently valued at approximately $37 billion at a price of approximately $25.72 per share.\nXPeng (XPEV)\nXiaopeng (XPeng) Motors is a Chinese electric vehicle and technology company that designs and manufactures smart cars. It was founded in 2015 and went public on August 27, 2020, using American depository shares, raising about $1 billion. To date, it has raised about $2.6 billion.\nXPeng aims its EVs at technology-savvy middle-class Chinese consumers, with prices ranging from $22,000 to $45,000 after government subsidies. In some ways, it is a Tesla knock-off at a much lower price. XPeng started production of the G3 in November 2018, and as of July 31, 2020, delivered 18,741. It started production of the P7 and began delivery in May 2020, and as of July 31, 2020, it had delivered 1,966 EVs. The P7 has a range of more than 400 miles. It plans to launch a third Smart EV, a sedan, in 2021. The G3 was among the top-three best-selling electric SUVs in China in 2019.\nXPeng is interesting because it has a platform strategy and is moving aggressively into autonomous driving. It uses a platform strategy to expand product offerings by launching one Smart EV model each year to broaden the addressable market. It builds new models on two highly flexible Smart EV platforms, called David and Edward, respectively. The David platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,600 millimeters to 2,800 millimeters, and the Edward platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,800 millimeters to 3,100 millimeters. It also adopted a platform approach for software systems.\nXPeng claims to be developing an autonomous driving capability for its EVs. The P7 is the first production vehicle to feature the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Xavier system-on-a-chip (SoC) autonomous driving platform. The company's Smart Electric Platform Architecture (SEPA) runs on 2 chips - NVIDIA for the XPILOT and Qualcomm's Snapdragon™ 820A for intelligent services and infotainment, including cameras inside and outside, radars, HD-map, and ultrasonic sensors. Like Tesla, it claims it can create sufficiently-autonomous driving without lidar.\nTo enhance brand recognition and allow more people to experience its Smart EVs, it deployed a small number of Smart EVs in a ride-hailing service in Guangzhou on a trial basis, but it has no current plan to scale up a ride-hailing service.\nXpeng sees first-quarter 2021 deliveries rising 450% year-over-year to 12,500 vehicles. Revenues are expected to increase 533% from a year ago. The company didn't provide bottom-line estimates for the quarter, but will likely post another net loss as it ramps up manufacturing, invests in R&amp;D, and builds out a new manufacturing plant set to open in 2022.\nXpeng reported selling 12,964 vehicles in Q4 2020, up 303% from a year ago. It delivered a total of 27,041 vehicles in 2020, up 112%. It makes the P7 sedan, a rival to the made-in-China Tesla Model 3, and the small G3 SUV.\nThe stock opened on August 27, 2020 at a price of $15 and a valuation of $11 billion, but its stock jumped more than 40% shortly after. Its current valuation is about $35 billion at a stock price of approximately $36.13 per share. It had about $300 million in revenue in 2019 with a loss of about $500 million.\nNio (NIO)\nUnlike previous companies, Nio has been a public company for some time. It originally went public in the U.S. back in September of 2018, selling IPO shares at $6.26 and raising $1 billion.\nNio's IPO was far from smooth. After going public at $6.26 per share, it traded down to nearly $1. Then in the middle of the coronavirus outbreak, Nio received a much-needed investment of $1 billion from investors, including state-backed entities.\nNio designs, jointly manufactures, and sells smart and connected premium electric vehicles, attempting to develop next-generation technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving, and artificial intelligence. Joint manufacturing means that it uses a state-owned contract manufacturer to build its cars.\nNio plans to provide customers with comprehensive, convenient, and innovative charging solutions and other user-centric services. It began deliveries of the ES8, a 7-seater high-performance premium electric SUV in China in June 2018, and its variant, the six-seater ES8, in March 2019. Nio officially launched the ES6, a 5-seater high-performance premium electric SUV, in December 2018 and began deliveries in June 2019. It officially launched the EC6, a 5-seater smart premium electric Coupe SUV, in December 2019 with deliveries in 2020.\nNio sold 17,353 EVs in Q4/2020 and 43,728 for the year. It warned a shortage in chips and batteries will force a production slowdown to 7,500 a month in Q2 from 10,000 vehicles a month in February.\nNio currently trades at more than $43 per share, including a big jump recently, for a valuation of approximately $48 billion. It had revenue of $2.3 billion in 2019 for a loss of $3.8 billion.\nSummary\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this should provide exciting new investment opportunities. However, the investment terrain is complex. There are dozens of new start-ups where the public can now invest that were previously exclusively venture capital investment opportunities. Many of these are following different roads to success. There are legacy auto manufacturers that could prosper or get destroyed in this transition. There are some exciting new EV company opportunities in China. And then there is Tesla.\nThis EV roadmap is intended to help investors explore different roads to investment by explaining the basic strategies for these EV companies. These roads can have different opportunities and risks, and the roadmap helps to frame these. Above all, valuation is an overriding risk that is highlighted throughout this article.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>New Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNew Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-19 14:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.\nLast October, I wrote a popular article providing...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车","01211":"比亚迪股份","NKLA":"Nikola Corporation","LI":"理想汽车","GP":"GreenPower Motor Company Inc.","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","GOEV":"Canoo Inc.","WKHS":"Workhorse Group, Inc.","F":"福特汽车","002594":"比亚迪","TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来","FSR":"菲斯克","HYLN":"Hyliion Holdings Corp."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1196402560","content_text":"Summary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.\nLast October, I wrote a popular article providing a roadmap for investing in electric vehicles, but since then, so much has changed: new entrants, new strategies, fluctuating valuations, etc.\nSo, I updated and greatly expanded the previous EV investment roadmap.\nThis update includes a deeper look at valuations for 23 EV companies with revenue projections, when available.\nIt also classifies these EV companies into their primary market categories and summarizes their different strategies.\n\nPhoto by Sven Loeffler/iStock via Getty Images\nMy article Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap published five months ago, was popular, and some followers have requested an update. Many new EV companies entered the market, most of them through SPACs. Valuations fluctuated wildly, and there has been a great deal of publicity around these companies.\nThis new updated EV investment roadmap is greatly expanded. In addition to updating the strategies and progress of companies previously discussed, I expanded the number of companies covered. This article also groups EV companies into their primary markets, enabling better comparisons and evaluation of market opportunities. In addition, it includes a comparative valuation chart showing every company's market cap with a comparison to projected revenue, where possible. This takes advantage (good or bad) of looking at the long-term revenue forecasts provided in SPAC mergers that public companies can't make.\nIn addition to the EV manufacturers discussed here, there are also EV investment opportunities in charging station companies, battery manufacturers, and battery materials companies. These were covered in the original roadmap and may also be updated in a later article.\nApproximately 2 million EVs were sold in 2019, and although the number declined along with all auto sales in 2020, it is forecasted to increase in 2021 and reach 8-10 million by 2025. Some forecast that EV sales will be greater than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2030, or even earlier. The automobile market appears to be moving toward a historical transformation, and exceptional investment gains can be made by anticipating new emerging industries and investing in the eventual winners of those new industries. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)are obvious examples. Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to create a new emerging industry.\nThere are also significant risks. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to be released in the next three years, which will drive rapid growth in EV sales. However, the expected sales from these new models, as well as the increasing expectations from Tesla, most likely exceed the total projected market. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the companies covered here won't exist five years from now. It reminds me of the internet bubble of the late 1990s when scores of internet-based companies went public with little or no revenue. Almost all of these failed within three years -- however, a couple, including Amazon, went on to enormous success.\nEVs provide a major new investment opportunity with high risks. To succeed, you need to have a clear EV investment roadmap.\nSo, how can you invest in this new emerging market? The EV landscape is complex and investment opportunities are varied. While Tesla is the unquestioned leader in EVs, some consider it overvalued and unlikely to show exceptional returns to new investors. The current U.S. legacy automakers are committed to introducing many new EVs in the next few years, and they have some entrenched advantages with volume manufacturing capabilities, a dealer infrastructure, and loyal customers. There are exciting new EV start-ups in the U.S. that have come public this year, mostly through Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), and there are several interesting publicly traded Chinese EV manufacturers.\nThis new roadmap for EV investment classifies companies into three primary markets segments:\n\nTheConsumer Retailsegment includes EVs sold to consumers individually, such as SUVs, pickup trucks, sedans, etc.\nTheCommercial Deliverysegment includes local delivery EV vans and trucks sold to fleets.\nTheMedium- and Long-Haul Truckingsegment includes heavier Class 4 - Class 8 trucks, as well as special industrial vehicles.\n\nIn addition, it categorizesLegacy ManufacturersandChinese EV Companies. This enables investors to evaluate investment opportunities by considering unique opportunities within each market segment.\nThere is an enormous amount of investment optimism for EVs, and retail investors have been aggressively buying into EV stocks with seemingly no regard for valuation. Then there is the additional challenge of valuing companies with no revenue, especially those coming public through SPACs. So, valuation is an important investment consideration.\nSo let's start by looking at an overview of comparative EV valuations.\nEV Investment Valuation Overview\nThe following chart summarizes valuations for 23 EV companies, including several legacy companies. For SPACs, market cap estimates are computed using the pro forma number of shares at closing, otherwise using the valuation of the SPAC prior to closing drastically underestimates the valuation, which may be misleading to novice investors. Price/Sales ratios (market cap divided by revenue) are used to compare valuations. As a benchmark, current P/S ratios vary. For example, auto and truck companies have a ratio of 2.7X. Software companies have the highest ratios of over 10X.\nIn the chart, companies that currently have revenue show current P/S ratios. Where projections are available, projected P/S ratios are computed. A note of caution, however. Many of the EV companies came public through SPACs and published their projections (which public companies cannot do), and many of these are likely to prove unrealistic.\nAll of the longer-term revenue projections come from the company (C) forecasts with a SPAC. Some of these may turn out to be accurate, not many are most likely unrealistic. Some, like Lucid, Faraday, and Arrival forecast hitting more than $10 billion in revenue in a few years, when it took Tesla more than 10. Things are different now and they might achieve these, but they could also find that it will take longer to complete development, ramp up production, and create enough customer demand. Many companies may also find that there will be significant capital requirements to achieve this type of growth, and shareholders will be diluted.\n\nTesla, the \"gold standard\" in EVs, has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, which many people believe is overvalued. Its market cap is approximately 20X 2020 revenue and 10X estimated 2022 revenue.\nTesla (TSLA)\nIn the U.S., and to a lesser extent in China, Tesla is the dominant EV provider. It has approximately 60% of the U.S. EV market and about 20% of the market in China. I own a Tesla and love it, but an investment in Tesla stock requires getting comfortable with its valuation. Tesla has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, although declining lately, which some consider still overvalued while others see upside potential.\nThe investment opportunity with Tesla is based on the expectation that it will continue to dominate the EV market, or at least maintain significant market share, despite much greater competition from the expected introduction of hundreds of new EV models in the next few years.\nThere is a great deal already published about Tesla, so I'll move on.\nLegacy Automakers\nSome people think that the legacy automakers will simply fade away. Historically, that was the case in some other industries, but it is not going to happen to most automakers. They are not standing still waiting to become obsolete. Most have aggressive strategies to replace ICE vehicles with EVs. GM plans to invest $27 billion and build and launch as many as 30 new EV models by 2025. Ford plans to invest $29 billion in EVs by 2025 and launch as many as 16 EVs in the next two years. Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY)has also committed billions to develop new EVs.\nThe competitive advantage that legacy automakers have in selling their new EVs is their dealer network. Will new EV customers prefer to continue going to their regular auto dealer to buy their new EV?\nAlmost all legacy automakers worldwide are developing and launching EVs including Volkswagen, Peugeot, Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi, Hyundai/Kia. Let's look a little more closely at GM and Ford as the leaders in the U.S.\nGeneral Motors (GM)\nGM has committed to introducing 20 new electric vehicles by 2023, including EVs across Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC, and Buick. It recently announced that it has already sold out the first-year production of its Hummer electric pickup. By mid-decade, it expects to sell a million EVs per year in its two largest markets: North America and China. As a reference point, Tesla reported deliveries of 367,500 vehicles globally in 2019.\nGM has a solid platform strategy for its EVs. It plans on building its EVs using five interchangeable drive units and three different motors from its Ultium Drive System platform. Ultium energy options range from 50 to 200 kWh, which could enable an estimated range of up to 400 miles. Most of its EVs will have 400-volt battery packs and up to 200 kW fast-charging capability while the truck platform will have 800-volt battery packs and 350 kW fast-charging capabilities.\nThe key building blocks of the Ultium battery system are large-scale, high-energy cells. Engineered in partnership with LG Energy Solutions, they use both advanced chemistry and a smart cell design that's optimized for a broad portfolio of EVs. GM engineers and scientists are actively researching and testing new elements in battery chemistry to lower costs and improve charge times. Ultium can contain either vertically- or horizontally-stacked cells to integrate into vehicle design: vertically for trucks, SUVs, and crossovers, or horizontally for cars and performance vehicles. As new chemistry is developed and becomes available, the battery management system could digitally update the modules.\nGM also has other EV opportunities with its BrightDrop commercial EV service and its Cruise subsidiary. BrightDrop will not just sell delivery EVs, it will provide an entire service platform for commercial delivery customers. Its set of electric delivery vehicles starts with the EV600 and includes the BrightDrop EP1, a pod-like electric pallet. SeeGeneral Motors' Aggressive EV/AV Strategies May Payoff Big.\nWith its highest stock price of $61.65, GM's current market cap is approximately $89 billion, increasing primarily because of its progress with EVs. This approximately 3X valuation in 2018, but still only 13% of Tesla.\nFord (F)\nFord is also investing heavily in EVs. It just introduced the Mustang Mach-E, a battery-powered crossover with sports car styling, and plans to introduce an all-electric version of its best-selling F-150 pickup later this year. Also, planned is an electric edition of the full-size Transit van, which has been popular in the commercial delivery market. Ford has confirmed plans to build a luxury Lincoln crossover on a battery-powered platform provided by Rivian. The automaker also plans to introduce two new midsize electric crossovers, one each for the Ford and Lincoln brands by 2023.\nMustang Mach-E. Source: Ford\nFord's market cap is approximately $51 billion, twice its previous market cap, and also increasing.\nConsumer Retail EV Companies\nThe consumer retail market has some unique characteristics for new EV companies. Sales are made individually, not in fleets. This diversifies the risk upon launch because only a sufficient number of customers need to be attracted to the new EV. A wave of popularity can provide terrific momentum.\nHowever, the lack of a dealer network can be an impediment. Selling EVs directly to consumers instead of through dealers is prohibited in most states. By law, auto manufacturers can't compete with franchised dealers. These are laws that go back many decades to protect dealers. This can be a major impediment for new companies without established independent dealer franchises. So, new AV companies. like Tesla, need to sell their vehicles online. Tesla has successfully done this, but it took a lot of work and time. Lack of a dealer network also creates impediments in service.\nIn addition, over the next 4-5 years, autonomous capabilities will be increasingly important to luxury vehicles. This may prove to be a challenge to start-up EV companies because they can't afford to develop this technology.\nLet's look closer at the alternative consumer retail EV investments.\nLucid Motors (CCIV)\nLucid was founded in 2007 under the name Atieva and originally focused on building electric vehicle batteries and powertrains for other vehicle manufacturers. The company rebranded itself as Lucid Motors in October 2016 and shifted its strategy to develop an all-electric, high-performance, luxury vehicle. Shortly after that, it encountered financial difficulties and struggled to get short-term funding. In 2018 it raised more than $1 billion in investment, primarily from Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund, and gave up a majority of the company.\nLucid Motors reached an agreement to become a publicly-traded company through a merger with the SPAC Churchill Capital IV Corp., in one of the largest deals SPAC EV deals. The combined company, in which Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund will continue to be the largest shareholder, had a transaction equity value of $11.75 billion (for $10/share). At the same time, it closed a PIPE investment priced at $15 a share, giving it an implied pro forma equity value of $24 billion. Rumors about this deal circulated before the transaction was formally announced, making it one of the most anticipated SPAC deals. The hype and speculation drove up the stock price of Churchill Capital IV Corp. from its opening price of $10 a share to almost $60. I believe that some of this may have been driven by novice SPAC investors who didn't realize that the valuation of CCIV didn't include the eventual valuation of Lucid. The share price dropped more than 30% after the details of the deal were announced. It's also likely that Lucid renegotiated the terms of the merger based on the price jump.\nThe company's first product is the Lucid Air, a well-equipped luxury electric vehicle that features 406 miles of projected range and 480 horsepower with a starting price of $77,400, or $69,900 after the U.S. Federal Tax Credit of $7,500. This new Lucid Air model is positioned as a high-performance, ultra-efficient luxury EV sedan in a line of future vehicles that are expected to include Lucid Air Touring, Grand Touring, and Dream Edition versions.\nThe company plans to begin production and deliveries of the Lucid Air in North America in the second half of 2021. Previously the company aimed to begin deliveries earlier in 2021. It intends to sell the car in Europe in 2022, followed by China in 2023. Lucid vehicles will be produced at its new factory in Casa Grande, Arizona. The company plans to expand the factory in phases in the coming years to have the capacity to produce 365,000 units per year at scale. The initial phase of the $700 million factory construction was completed late last year and will have the capacity to produce 30,000 vehicles a year.\nLucid also apparently has a commitment to build an assembly plant in Saudi Arabia, which was rumored to be a condition of the $1 billion investment from the Saudi public fund. The Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund also provided $600 million in bridge financing and invested in the SPAC deal as well. So, while this assembly plant may be expensive and may not be critical, it will most likely need to happen.\nLucid has ambitious plans to achieve $14 billion in revenue in 2025, and its current stock price at $29.17, which gives it a market cap of more than $46 billion, may already reflect those ambitions. Its market cap is roughly the same as Ford.\nFisker (FSR)\nFisker, which had its origins with Fisker Automotive, is an interesting story that ended in bankruptcy. Henrik Fisker originally co-founded Fisker Automotive in 2007. He was responsible for designing many premium cars such as the Aston Martin. Subsequently, Fisker Automotive had to deal with a Tesla lawsuit against Fisker Automotive alleging it stole Tesla's technology, a controversial $528.7 million conditional loan from the Department of Energy, a recall of its battery produced by A123, and the loss of several hundred vehicles in hurricane Sandy. Henrik Fisker resigned in March 2013 because of disagreements over business strategy and in November 2013, Fisker filed its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case.\nHowever, Henrik Fisker retained the Fisker brand and trademarks, and in 2016 he started another electric vehicle company named Fisker Inc. with the Fisker brand and trademarks. In 2019, Fisker shifted from developing a sports car with a solid-state battery to the Ocean SUV featuring a lithium-ion battery, which it later abandoned for a solid-state battery.\nFisker is positioning itself in a unique segment for those who want the most environmentally friendly EV. While this may be an early growth segment for EVs, it's difficult to estimate its eventual competitive advantage and the size of this environmentally-friendly market segment.\nThe Ocean is a crossover made of recycled metal and plastic with an expected base price of $37,499, and an expected lease of less than $400 a month. Fisker's plan is essentially a lease-only business model that lets customers keep a vehicle for years or return it at any time. It aims to source motors, batteries, and other components from technical partnerships with automakers and will outsource production from existing auto plants. Fisker is currently taking reservations at $250 for the Ocean. It also announced an agreement with Foxconn to jointly develop a vehicle pioneering a new market segment to be sold globally under the Fisker brand commencing in Q4 2023. at the end of 2022. Production will start at Magna Steyr's manufacturing facilities in Europe. At the end of February 2021, it had 12,467 cancellable reservations.\nFisker Ocean. Source: Fisker\nFisker went public using a SPAC (Spartan Energy). The original combination with SPAQ in October 2020 was valued at $2.9 billion with a cash investment of approximately $1 billion. The stock currently trades at approximately $21 per share, after reaching a high of $28.50, from the original price of $10, which is a market cap of $4.6 billion. Fisker projects $3.3 billion in revenue in 2023. It had almost $1 billion in cash at the end of 2020 and expected to use almost half of this in 2021: $250 million on operating expenses and $250 million in capital investments. If the Ocean is delayed into 2023, Fisker risks missing its revenue objective and will potentially need additional cash to complete development and launch.\nFaraday Future (PSAC)\nFaraday Future was originally established in May 2014 by Chinese businessman Jia Yueting. It is headquartered in Los Angeles and has offices in Silicon Valley, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu. Faraday Future also had a turbulent history. In 2016, it struggled financially, and in 2017 some key executives departed over a dispute about financial issues. They later founded Canoo.\nIn December 2018 the company announced layoffs due to a cash crunch and financial troubles. The company's founder Jia Yueting filed for personal bankruptcy in the United States' federal court in Delaware on October 14, 2019. Following Jia's personal bankruptcy, he decided to step down from his role as CEO of Faraday Future in order to assume a new position as the Chief Product and User Officer. He was replaced as CEO by Carsten Breitfeld, the former CEO at rival electric vehicle startup Byton.\nSomehow, Faraday was able to raise $2.3 billion in private funding over 5 rounds from a variety of investors. In early 2018, it received $1.5 billion in funding from an undisclosed investor from Hong Kong.\nFaraday's flagship product offering will be the FF 91, featuring 1,050 HP, 0-60 mph in less than 2.4 seconds, zero gravity seats with the largest 60-degree reclining angles, and a user experience designed to create a mobile, connected, and luxurious living space. The FF 91 is targeted to launch in 2022.\nFF 91. Source: Faraday Future\nIts strategic partners include one of China's top three OEMs and a critical Chinese city, which the company believes will help establish its presence in the Chinese vehicle market.\nFaraday Future plans several cars based on its Variable Platform Architecture. FF 91 is the first production vehicle and flagship model. Pricing will range between $120,000 and upwards of $200,000, which places it against formidable opponents. Faraday Future is already looking forward to expanding its range with a pair of smaller models named FF 81 and FF 71. The FF 81 is planned to be priced at $75,000 to 95,000 with a 2023 release. The FF 71 is planned to be priced at $45,000 to $65,000 with a planned release of 2024.\nThe Primary Manufacturing Facility for FF 91 is in Hanford, CA with contract manufacturing for future models in Gunsan, South Korea.\nFaraday Future is planning high-Level automation with a Level-3 capable system using a redundant safety architecture based on NVIDIA Xavier System-on-a-chip. It will be capable of highway auto-drive and hardware ready for advanced auto-drive. It is targeting full autonomous valet parking & summon in any parking lot or structure. Eventually, it expects full auto-drive, including full 360˚ sensor coverage for advanced auto-drive & auto-park features.\nIn January 2021, Faraday Future announced that the company would go public through a reverse merger with the special purpose acquisition company Property Solutions Acquisition Corp. (PSAC). The combined company will be valued at $3.4 billion. Faraday Future is expected to set up contract manufacturing operations in China through their partnership with Geely. Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn is also expected to serve as an additional strategic partner.\nFaraday Future projects $10.5 billion in revenue in 2024 and $21.5 billion in 2025. Revenue is expected to start in 2022 with the delivery of 2,400 vehicles for $504 million. Most likely these projections could prove to be optimistic. At a current stock price of approximately $12.80, it has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nLordstown Motors (RIDE)\nLordstown Motors based in Lordstown, Ohio, was originally founded in 2018 by Steve Burns, the former CEO of Workhorse Group. The company licensed technology from Workhorse in return for royalties and a 10% ownership. Lordstown is named after the famous GM Lordstown manufacturing plant, which it acquired in November 2019 in an unusual transaction. GM announced that it was closing the plant and was under a great deal of pressure for that decision. So, GM \"sold\" the plant to a company that was renamed Lordstown for an estimated $20 million that it loaned to the acquiring company. Subsequently, the sale was redefined to be part of a $75 million investment by GM, of which $50 million was an in-kind exchange for the plant.\nLordstown went public through the SPAC DiamondPeak Holdings Corp. in 2020. It currently has more than 400 employees.\nIts first product is the Lordstown Endurance, a full-sized EV pickup truck. Lordstown is positioning Endurance for the pickup fleet market segment. The expected price is $52,000+, and it claimed to have more than 100,000 pre-orders by January 2021. However, a recent research article published by a short seller claimed \"Our research has revealed that Lordstown's order book consists of fake or entirely non-binding orders, from customers that generally do not even have fleets of vehicles.\" Lordstown is disputing that article.\nIt believes the fleet pickup market segment is underserved with no current EV-focused competition. It estimates that the full-sized pick-up truck fleet market is 1.2 million vehicles per year in the U.S., but it's more fragmented than other truck fleets. Pickup \"fleets\" tend to be much smaller and local, so there may not be much of a market distinction for a small company buying several EV pickups from a traditional auto dealer. About half of the total U.S. pickup market is classified as fleet sales, meaning more than one.\nEven though Lordstown is targeting the commercial fleet market, it is a similar product to the Ford EV F-150. So I classify it in the consumer EV category. It is a class 2 vehicle. Lordstown also may enter the SUV market in the longer-term.\nThe Endurance will compete against future models from Rivian and Tesla, as well as Ford and GM in ICE pick-ups and their upcoming EV pick-ups. Ford plans on selling its EV F-150 in mid-2022. Initial production of the Endurance is expected in the second half of 2021, so it may have a short market advantage. Nevertheless, it forecasts selling 65,000 vehicles in 2023 and 107,000 in 2024. These estimates could be a large percentage of the EV pick-up market in those years.\nAt the SPAC merger, the implied valuation for Lordstown was $1.6 billion, including a $500 million PIPE and the $75 million by GM. Lordstown's financial projections appear to be aggressive. It projects to start shipping the Endurance in late 2021 with projected revenue in 2022 of $1.7 billion, increasing to $5.8 billion in 2024. Its stock price at approximately $13.60 values the company at a market cap of approximately $2.2 billion. The value of the company depends on the likelihood of achieving its projections.\nA fleet sales strategy makes sense for Lordstown since it would be too expensive to build a retail sales and service capability. However, it's not clear that this will become a distinct competitive advantage. Some small fleets may still prefer to buy their EV pickups from established local dealers with service capabilities.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nCanoo started as Evelozcity in 2017 and rebranded as Canoo in the spring of 2019. Canoo is a Los Angeles-based company that develops electric vehicles. It has over 350 employees. Canoo has designed a modular electric platform purpose-built to deliver maximum vehicle interior space, which is adaptable to support a wide range of vehicle applications for consumers and businesses. Canoo expects to launch its first consumer model in 2022, simply named the Canoo that will be available by subscription, followed shortly after by a multi-purpose delivery vehicle and a sports vehicle, each built off of the same underlying platform. Canoo went public using a SPAC (Hennessy Capital Acquisition) and now trades as GOEV.\nCanoo's all-electric skateboard-like platform is designed to support both consumer retail and commercial vehicle configurations. The EV leverages Canoo's flat skateboard architecture for a high level of usable interior space. Its commercial vehicle program, expected in 2023, addresses a projected $50B+ last-mile delivery market with an EV platform that maximizes cargo volume.\nHyundai Motor Group said it would jointly develop an electric vehicle platform with the company.\nCanoo's platform strategy is interesting. It could be used as an EV platform for custom fleets of delivery vehicles. It has no AV development, but it claims to be \"AV Ready\" which could be useful for AV companies wanting to build custom AV delivery fleets.\nIts all-electric multi-purpose delivery vehicle is expected to be priced starting at approximately $33,000. It is based on Canoo's proprietary electric platform and will be offered in two initial size variants, with others to follow. Limited availability will begin in 2022, with scaled production and launch planned for 2023. Customers can pre-order the multi-purpose delivery vehicle for a refundable deposit of $100 per vehicle\nIt plans to offer two multi-purpose delivery vehicles: the MPDV1 and the larger MPDV2. The first has a 200-foot cargo volume and a range of 130-200 miles. It offers more capacity than today's ICE delivery vehicles at an affordable price with urban mobility enabled by a space-efficient footprint. The vehicle is also designed to fit within many height-restricted areas like parking garages.\nThe MPDV2 has a cargo volume of 450 feet and a range of 90-190 miles. Its roof and step-in height enable individuals to easily walk-in the vehicle and accommodate a standing position while inside.\nThe original SPAC transaction provided approximately $600 million, with a pro forma equity value of approximately $2.4 billion. Like other SPAC mergers, its stock price has fluctuated. It currently trades at about $15.90 per share for a market cap of approximately $3.7 billion. Canoo projects $2.0 billion in revenue in 2025 from about $500 million in engineering services, $1.2 billion from its consumer vehicle subscriptions, and the remainder from its commercial program. Canoo expects revenue of more than $300 million in 2022 after the launch of its lifestyle consumer vehicle.\nSince its first products are aimed at consumers, as is most of its forecasted 2025 revenue, I categorize it primarily as a consumer EV company. However, I think the design of that Canoo vehicle may not attract enough customers. More importantly, its subscription service way of selling its EV to consumers is risky. I think it has more potential in the commercial market, however, a dual strategy (consumer and commercial) is challenging. I like its skateboard platform design and that could prove to be a competitive advantage.\nRivian\nAlthough not yet public, I include Rivian because it has plans for an IPO as soon as Sept 2021, although it could slip into 2022. There are rumors that the company is targeting a market valuation of approximately $50B. Rivian has already raised more than $8 billion to date from Amazon, Ford, T. Rowe Price, and others.\nRivian has developed and vertically integrated a connected electric platform that can be flexibly applied to a range of applications, including the company's adventure products, as well as B2B products such as the Amazon last-mile delivery vans. The company's initial products, the R1T and R1S, provide a combination of performance, off-road capability, and utility. These vehicles will be produced at Rivian's manufacturing plant in Normal, Ill., with customer deliveries expected to begin in summer 2021. The launch of the R1S three-row electric SUV will follow in August.\nAdditional lower-priced models are being planned. The expected R2 series would include at least two smaller electric vehicles to coincide with the smaller platform, then another platform for R3.\nCommercial Delivery EV Companies\nEV truck companies differ based on the type of truck they are developing. The technology and markets are very different, so I separate them into two categories. The first category includes commercial delivery vehicles.\nCompanies making EV delivery vehicles have some major advantages that could make them good investments. First, delivery vehicles typically travel less than 250 miles during a day, so they can be conveniently recharged overnight. Secondly, they are typically sold in large quantities to fleets. This means that building a retail sales infrastructure is not necessary. It only requires a small salesforce. In addition, maintenance can also be provided at the fleet's operational center, so not as many service centers are required.\nThe disadvantage in this market is that there are a relatively small number of customers that buy in large volumes, so if the EV manufacturer can't get enough large customers, they may not be able to stay in business. GM estimates the combined market opportunity for parcel and food delivery, as well as reverse logistics, in the U.S. will be more than $850 billion by 2025.\nThe commercial market is expected to be a major growth area for EVs. Other start-up automakers like Rivian as well as legacy automakers such as Ford, Daimler, and GM have announced plans to enter the segment. GM recently announced its BrightDrop ecosystem for commercial customers that includes an all-new electric delivery van, the EV600 available by the end of 2021, as well as an integrated autonomous pallet and related services.\nThis group of EV companies focuses primarily on commercial delivery. In general, these are in the light-duty trucks category, although it also includes some medium-duty trucks. This generally includes the following commercial truck classes:\n\nClass 1: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 0-6,000 pounds or 0-2,722 kilograms.\nClass 2: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 6,001-10,000 pounds or 2,722-4,536 kilograms.1\nClass 3: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 10,001-14,000 pounds or 4,536-6,350 kilograms.\n\nIt can also include somewhat larger medium-duty EV delivery trucks:\n\nClass 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.\nClass 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.\n\nEV delivery trucks also have an advantage over ICE vehicles because they can have a greater delivery storage space. Smaller buses and transit vehicles are also included in this category.\nLast-mile package delivery is not an immediate-term autonomous vehicle opportunity because it requires a delivery person to be on the truck anyway.\nWorkhorse Group (WKHS)\nWorkhorse has been a public company for ten years. Originally AMP Electric Vehicles, it was established in 2007 as a developmental-stage vehicle electrification company, focusing on conversions. AMP Electric Vehicles went public in 2010 trading on the OTC market under the AMPD symbol. When the economic benefits of conversion became less certain, it pivoted away from passenger vehicles and began to focus on electrifying commercial vehicles. AMP acquired the Workhorse brand and the Workhorse custom chassis assembly plant in Union City. In March of 2013, AMP formally changed its name to Workhorse Group Incorporated.\nThe Company designs and builds a last-mile delivery electric vehicle. The C-Series EVs cover the larger size of commercial delivery vehicles in Classes 3-5. As part of its solutions, it also develops cloud-based, real-time telematics performance monitoring systems. It sells its vehicles to fleet customers directly and through its primary distributor, Ryder Systems. It is currently focused on bringing the C-Series electric delivery truck to market and fulfilling the existing backlog of orders.\nThe C-Series looks like a viable EV replacement for the 350,000 last-mile delivery vehicles sold in the U.S. annually. It recently announced an increased driving range from 100 miles to 160, which should open more market opportunities. It has a viable short-term go-to-market strategy selling fleets to delivery companies. It currently has test vehicles with UPS, DHL, FedEx, Amazon, and Walmart.\nWorkhorse recently lost out on the United States Postal Services Next Generation Delivery Vehicle project, however, it is in the process of challenging this decision. Additionally, its investment in Lordstown also provides an indirect investment opportunity. On November 7, 2019, the Company entered a transaction with Lordstown Motors to grant LMC a perpetual and worldwide license to certain intellectual property relating to its W-15 electric pickup truck platform and related technology in exchange for royalties, equity interest (approximately 10%) in LMC, and other considerations. This was a $320 million asset for Workhorse at the end of 2020.\nWorkhorse received a significant increase in orders in Q4/2020 but built just seven trucks in the fourth quarter due to production systems and supply chain issues. Workhorse plans to continue to take it slow, striving to build three of its composite-body battery-electric trucks a day in March with a plan to reach 10 trucks a day by the end of June. This makes its original 2021 goal of producing 1,800 trucks unlikely. It partnered with Hitachi and Hitachi Capital America (\"HCA\") to improve the Company's manufacturing, operational, and supply chain capabilities as well as to develop a national dealer network to support Workhorse's sales with vehicle financing options for both dealers and customers.\nWorkhorse has a market cap of approximately $1.9 billion. While Workhorse had ongoing revenue, unlike many other new EV companies, its revenue is still insignificant. It had a revenue of $1.4 million in 2020 and $377,000 in 2019. It has a backlog of over 8,000 vehicles but doesn't expect to be able to build many of those in 2021. It raised $270 million in capital over several financings, providing the Company with additional capital to build its backlog. It had cash of $215 million as of March 1, 2021. Because Workhorse is a traditional public company, it hasn't made long-term financial projections like SPAC-based companies.\nElectric Last Mile (FIII)\nElectric Last Mile, based in Troy Michigan, was founded by Jason Luo, former CEO of Ford China before it was acquired by China's Ningbo Joyson Electronic for $920 million in 2016, including James Taylor, former CEO of GM's Hummer brand and former CEO of electric car maker Karma Automotive. Taylor serves as the company's top executive with Luo as the company's chairman.\nThe company plans to launch a small electric delivery van (class 1-2), called the UD-1, in the third quarter of 2021, and then introduce an Urban Utility vehicle (Class 2-3) in 2022. These are expected to compete with Workhorse, Rivian, Canoo, as well as the Ford eTransit and the GMC BV1, none of which is expected to be a Class 1 vehicle.\nThe company says it has 30,000 preorders for its van, representing more than $1 billion in sales. Electric Last Miles vehicles will be based on Sokon's commercial van made in China through a joint venture with Dongfeng Automobile Co Ltd. in order to accelerate development time.\nElectric Last Mile (ELM) is expected to manufacture the vans in a former General Motors Co. Hummer plant in Mishawaka, Ind., that the company is acquiring from China's Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co. Ltd. The plant has the capacity to produce 100,000 vehicles annually with plans to build approximately 4,000 UD-1 vans by the end of 2021. The UD-1 has a starting price of $32,500 and a range of 150 miles. The battery for the vehicle is expected to be supplied by the Chinese battery company CATL.\nELM believes that it has a competitive advantage because its first vehicle, the ELM Urban Delivery, is scheduled to be available in 2021. It is based on a proven, existing platform developed and sold by Sokon Group in the Asian market, where there are 30,000 of these electric delivery vehicles driving 1.5 million miles every day. At the close of the business combination, ELM will be an independent, U.S. company producing electric vehicles in the U.S. with Sokon Group providing access to its know-how, parts supply, and field and service data.\nELM expects that the Urban Delivery vehicle will be the first electric delivery vehicle coming to market in the class 1 category (GVW of 6,000 lbs or less) in the U.S. It will also have 35% more carrying volume compared to similar ICE delivery vehicles, a critical part of the value proposition. It also anticipates that its price and greater carrying volume will allow it to take market share from the class 2 category of vehicles as well.\nIts crossover product portfolio strategy targets commercial delivery vehicles spanning from class 1 to class 3, which represents over 80% of the last mile market.\nELM anticipates $122 million in revenue in 2021, rapidly increasing to $3 billion in 2025. The price of FIII stock increased immediately following its announcement with Electric Last Mile, rising more than 40% to $14.50, but now it has dropped closer to the original deal price to $10.25 for a market cap of approximately $1.5 billion.\nGreenPower Motor Company (GP)\nGreenPower Motor Company Inc. is a Canadian battery-electric bus manufacturer with multiple models of high- and low-floor vehicles, including transit buses, school buses, and shuttles. GreenPower offers commercial vehicles for delivery, public transit, schools, vanpooling, micro-transit, shuttles, and is developing a capability of autonomous operation. It went public on August 28, 2020.\nIn 2014 GreenPower launched its first purpose-built, battery-electric bus, the EV350, 40-foot transit bus. GreenPower received its first order in 2017 for ten EV350s from the City of Porterville, California.\nGreenPower's electric buses are purpose-built and designed to be all-electric, allowing it to put the battery and propulsion system in optimized locations that provide weight and structural advantages. Its primary EV is the EV Star with more than 120 vehicles delivered. It comes in several variations:\n\nEV Star - Up to 19 passengers\nEV Star Plus - Up to 24 passengers\nEV Star ADA - Passenger and curbside lift for ADA\nEV Star Cargo - 5,000 pounds of load\nEV Star Cargo Plus - 570 cubic feet of cargo space.\n\nIts EV school bus seats up to 90 students and has a range of up to 150 miles.\nGreenPower had revenue of $13.5 million in 2020 It has about $21 million in cash. It's an interesting alternative since it is already shipping EVs, has revenue, and also has a lower market cap of less than $1 billion. Since it did a traditional IPO, it hasn't published longer-term financial forecasts.\nArrival (CIIC)\nArrival was founded in 2015 in London to make a variety of commercial electric vehicles. It has approximately 1,200 employees across 11 cities in 8 countries. In November 2020, Arrival and the SPAC CIIG entered into a business combination agreement with an implied valuation of $5.39 billion.\nArrival plans on releasing four commercial EVs over the next few years.\n\nQ4/2021: An electric bus for 8-125 passengers and a range of 240-400km\nQ3/2022: An electric delivery van with a payload of 975-2,000kg and a range of 150-340km\n2022: A larger electric van with a payload of 4,000 kg and a range of 190-400km\n2023: a small vehicle platform with a range of 100-300km.\n\nThis mix provides a nice diversified portfolio of EVs. Arrival claims to have received orders from UPS for 10,000 vans. It plans a unique flexible manufacturing approach using micro-factories with each projected to manufacture 10,000 vans per year. All of its vehicles use a modular skateboard electric platform.\nArrival ambitiously projects $14.1 billion in revenue in 2024. Half of that revenue is expected from delivery vans, 22% from buses, and the rest from the large van and its small vehicle platform. With CIIC's stock price at $24.80 per share, Arrival's current market cap is relatively high at approximately $15.0 billion. Justifying its market cap depends on its ability to release, sell, and produce its four commercial EVs.\nProterra (ACTC)\nProterra is a commercial electric vehicle company with over a decade of production experience. The Company has designed an end-to-end, flexible technology platform that claims to deliver higher performance and a low total cost of ownership to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end customers.\nProterra, Inc., was originally founded in Golden, Colorado, by Dale Hill in 2004. Later the company wanted to take the lead in creating zero-emission, U.S.-based transit buses. In 2010 it moved its manufacturing plant from Golden, Colorado to Greenville, South Carolina. In 2015, Proterra was awarded a $3 million grant from the California Energy Commission to fund the design, development, and construction of the company's battery-electric transit bus manufacturing line in the City of Industry, California. It moved its headquarters from Greenville, South Carolina, to Burlingame, California, in October 2015. Proterra raised more than $600 million in funding.\nIt is going public through the SPAC ArcLight (ACTC) with a pro forma valuation of $1.6 billion. Upon completion of the transaction, Proterra expects to have up to $825 million in cash to fund growth initiatives, including R&D and the expansion of its next-generation battery program.\nProterra has three complementary businesses:\n\nProterra Powered: Delivering battery systems and electrification solutions to commercial vehicle manufacturers\nProterra Transit:Providing an electric transit bus OEMs\nProterra Energy:Offering turnkey charging and energy management solutions.\n\nThe company's battery systems have been proven in more than 16 million service miles driven by its fleet of transit vehicles and validated through partnerships with commercial vehicle OEMs. Proterra has produced and delivered more than 300 megawatt-hours of battery systems, more than 550 heavy-duty electric transit buses, and installed 54 megawatts of charging systems.\nProterra expected $193 million of revenue in 2020, with an estimated $750 million in existing orders and backlog. It projects $2.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with about 1/3 coming from its Transit business, and 2/3 From Powered & Energy. At ACTC's current stock price of $17.85, Proterra has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nRivian\nRivian (see earlier description in consumer retail) will also compete in the commercial delivery market. It has been working with Amazon (a major investor) to build large electric delivery vans for Prime. Developed specifically for Amazon, a small fleet of Prime vans is on the road now, testing deliveries to customers and gathering feedback. In late fall, it could grow to a large fleet as Rivian ramps up the volume.\nThe EV range of 150 miles is tailored to Amazon's use cycle to optimize the size, weight, and cost of the commercial vehicle. Rivian has three sizes of batteries, but Amazon is starting with just one of them.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nSee the previous summary under consumer retail EV.\nMedium and Long-Haul Trucking EV Companies\nCompanies developing medium- and long-haul EV trucks face a more difficult challenge with battery range. These trucks haul much more weight than commercial delivery vehicles and because they are designed for long distances, they can't stop every 200-300 miles for recharging.\nFor this reason, many of these companies are using unique hybrid technologies for their trucks. The EV trucks in this category are primarily heavy-duty but also include some medium-duty trucks and specialty vehicles. A couple of the companies focus on retrofitting trucks to be electric.\nMedium-Duty Trucks\nThe medium-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 4, 5, and 6:\n\nClass 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.\nClass 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.\nClass 6: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 19,501-26,000 pounds or 8,846-11,793 kilograms.1\n\nHeavy-Duty Trucks\nThe heavy-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 7 and 8:\n\nClass 7: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 26,001 to 33,000 pounds or 11,794-14,969 kilograms.\nClass 8: This class of trucks has a GVWR of greater than 33,001 pounds or 14,969 kilograms and includes all tractor-trailers.\n\nThe Tesla Semi is a battery vehicle planned for a range of 300 or 500 miles and a speed of 60 MPH with 80,000 lbs of cargo. Tesla plans to start shipping the Semi later this year when it expects to have sufficient cell volume to meet its needs with the production of its 4680 battery pack.\nNikola(NASDAQ:NKLA)\nNikola has been a very controversial company. Founded in 2015, it originally had two different strategies. Its primary strategy is to lease fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) Class-8 heavy trucks and provide the refueling infrastructure to corporate customers. Its second strategy was to develop the Badger EV truck using GM technology.\nNikola originally merged with a SPAC to go public, at an enterprise value of approximately $3.3 billion. On June 6th, 2020, its market cap jumped to more than $30 billion, then later it dropped because of problems with its originally planned deal with GM.\nNikola originally expected a deal with General Motors that included the production of the Nikola Badger EV pickup truck. The proposed arrangement was that GM would take a $2 billion equity stake in Nikola and in return would engineer and produce the Badger. In November 2020, GM and Nikola scrapped the original arrangement. Now it appears that GM will supply Nikola with only its Hydrotec hydrogen fuel-cell technology to integrate into the EV manufacturer's commercial class 7 and class 8 zero-emission semi-trucks. So, the Badger is probably dead.\nNikola now sees semi-trucks as the company's \"core business\" and fuel cells as an increasingly important segment of the semi-truck market thanks to their efficiency in weight and consumption. It expects to begin testing by the end of 2021.\nIt has received pre-orders from Anheuser-Busch and a few other companies, but it doesn't expect deliveries until 2023. Hydrogen fueling stations are key to its strategy, both providing a source of revenue and necessary fueling infrastructure for the trucks to operate, but they also cost a lot. In its March 2020 investor deck, Nikola said a single station capable of fueling 210 trucks a day would cost $16.6 million. Its initial planned network of 700 stations would cost roughly $11.6 billion.\nNikola was also accused of misrepresentation, and its executive chairman and founder stepped down.\nAt the time of the SPAC merger, it projected an optimistic forecast of more than $3 billion in revenue by 2024, with a net income of $145 million. Most of that revenue was expected to come from its Badger truck, which is no longer in the plans. Yet its market cap is still almost $6 billion.\nHyliion (HYLN)\nHyliion, founded in 2015 in Austin, went public in October 2020 through the SPAC Tortoise Acquisition Corp. (SHLL). In March 2019, automotive parts manufacturer Dana Inc. made an equity investment into Hyliion, and together they are manufacturing and marketing Class 8 EVs to Dana's customers, including Volvo, Navistar, and Peterbilt.\nHyliion's strategy is unique, and a very different strategy from Nikola. Essentially it generates electricity onboard the truck using compressed natural gas (CNG). This should be a benefit for longer-range trucking. Hyliion's Hypertruck concept involves an all-electric drivetrain utilizing Dana's electric motor, inverter, and axle technologies. The truck's batteries are fueled by onboard tanks of CNG. With some 700 CNG stations already operating nationwide, it believes that there no need to build out expensive superchargers or hydrogen infrastructure.\nKuwait-based logistics company, Agility, has already placed an order for 1,000 Hypertrucks with initial deliveries targeted in 2022. Combined with a fully electric drivetrain and a natural gas-powered onboard generator to recharge the battery, the Hypertruck ERX will provide more than 1,000 miles of range.\nHyliion will eventually compete with Nikola (FCEV) and the Tesla battery-based Semi, but it plans to have a longer range and lower operating costs. Its HyperTruck ERX is expected to be available in 2021. It also has a hybrid-electric truck.\nThe combination with SHLL had an estimated market cap of about $1.5 billion, with approximately $530 million going to the company, including a $325 million fully committed PIPE. At approximately $13.50 per share, its current market cap is approximately $2.2 billion, significantly down from its peak. Hyliion projects $2 billion in revenue in 2024, which it claims is only about 2% of the addressable market.\nXL Fleet (XL)\nXL Fleet is a 10-year old company that went public through the SPAC Pivotal. XL is different because it provides fleet electrification modifications for ICE trucks across a wide range of vehicle classes (class 2-5) and types. It has over 200 of the largest commercial and municipal fleets as customers, with more than 3,200 XL systems deployed and over 130 million miles driven by customers to date. XL's customer base includes FedEx, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Verizon, the City of Boston, Seattle Fire Department, Yale University, and Harvard University.\nXL's business model is essentially retrofitting existing trucks to be hybrids and then later expanding into fully electric truck conversions. It claims to be creating a fully integrated platform for this. It remains to be seen if the retrofitting business will continue to grow or will it diminish when more trucks are designed and manufactured with EV capabilities.\nUnlike some other EV companies that have no revenue yet because they are still developing products, XL is more of a small company doing low-volume retrofits. It had $7.2 million in revenue in 2019, $21 million in 2020, and estimates $76 million in 2021, but it forecasts $1.3 billion in revenue in 2024 in its investor presentation. It plans to do this by expanding its product line from hybrid to plug-in hybrid to fully electric across a broader range of trucks. It claims to have a $220 million sales pipeline for the next 12 months.\nShort-seller, Muddy Waters, claimed after talking to former XL Fleet employees, that it believed the company significantly exaggerated its order backlog, that the return on investment for the company's products was likely negative, and that it would not be able to compete with big car makers on electrification. The company thoroughly refuted these claims.\nThe original enterprise valuation was approximately $1.4 billion at a $10 share price for the merger. Its price jumped by about 35% but has since gone back down to $12.40 for a market cap of about $1.8 billion. Although XL Fleet has revenue and other EV companies don't, this may not be an advantage. It appears to be a small company for many years that has gone public at a high valuation with grand plans. The risks are in its ability to make a jump from $76 million in 2021 to $1.3 billion in 2024, as well as the question about retrofitting being replaced by new EV trucks by then.\nXos (NGAC)\nXos Trucks specializes in the field of manufacturing fully electric commercial vehicles. It features a software platform that is designed to accommodate an extensive variety of medium-duty bodies, wheelbase, and range requirements up to 200 miles. It was founded in 2016 and headquartered in North Hollywood, California. It received $20 million of investment in 2020 and now is going public through a merger with the SPAC ExtGen Acquisition Corporation (NGAC) at an estimated proforma value of $1.965 billion.\nIts focus is on medium- and heavy-duty last mile and return-to-base segments (class 5/6, class 6/7, and class 7/8) commercial fleets and specialty vehicles. Some vehicles are currently in production and in regular on-road operations with key fleet customers, and it claimed 6,000 unit orders in backlog.\nIts MD-platform is for classes 5-6 for pickup and delivery. Its HD X-Platform is an adaptable chassis for highway, vocational, and severe work conditions. Its market is for customers with highly predictable routes that allow for batteries designed for a more limited range. A significantly larger frame and smaller battery pack allow for reduced density.\nXos has a bundled all-in-one offering that allows fleets to access all the tools and services they need to go electric with a single point of contact at a fixed monthly expense.\nXos had $3 million in revenue in 2020 and estimates $14 million in 2021. However, it forecasts $5.2 billion in revenue in 2025. At the current stock price of $10.30, its market cap is approximately $2 billion, about the same as its original SPAC transaction.\nLion Electric (NGA)\nLion Electric is a Canadian company founded by Marc Bédard in 2008. Its focus is to be a leader in designing, developing, and manufacturing purpose-built urban electric vehicles; vehicles that are specifically designed as delivery trucks, refuse trucks, bucket trucks, moving trucks, school buses, and shuttle buses. It has over 300 all-electric vehicles on the road today.\nIn November 2020, it announced that it was going public through the SPAC NGA. The transaction had an estimated pro forma enterprise value of $1.5 billion.\nIt plans on seven new truck models and one new school bus, for a total of 15 all-electric vehicles, representing a full line-up from class 5 to class 8 electric trucks and a full line-up of electric school buses. Its vehicles are produced at its existing manufacturing plant, which has the capacity for the production of up to 2,500 vehicles per year. It intends to open a new plant in the U.S. capable of delivering over 20,000 Lion trucks and buses per year by 2022.\nIts all-electric class 6 and class 8 commercial urban trucks combine power, comfort, and modern technology. Custom-built chassis and cabin designed specifically for an all-electric heavy-duty vehicle. The LionC is an all-electric Type C school bus manufactured in North America. The body and chassis were specifically designed to deliver optimal performance. The LionM is an all-electric midi/minibus that meets paratransit and public transportation requirements. Created and designed specifically for the paratransit market, the is spacious and offers unique features that provide enhanced security and accessibility to the end-users.\nLion Electric had $29 million in revenue in 2020 and expects $204 million in 2021. It forecasts revenue to jump to $3.6 billion a few years later in 2024. Its current market cap is approximately $3.6 billion based on its current stock price of $18.33.\nLightning eMotors (GIK)\nLightning eMotors, formerly Lightning Systems, was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Loveland, Colorado. It provides fleet electrification for familiar commercial vehicle platforms by retrofitting them with its electric powertrains. Lightning eMotors produces electric fleet medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including delivery trucks, shuttle buses, passenger vans, ambulances, bucket trucks, chassis-cab models, and city transit buses. It focuses on urban commercial zero-emission vehicles with a full range of class 3 through class 7 battery-electric and fuel-cell electric vehicles.\nLighting eMotors helps commercial fleets achieve their sustainability goals by offering zero-emission battery-electric vans, trucks, and buses based on familiar, proven vehicles from manufacturers such as Ford and GM. It works with customers, to help them identify their unique commercial electric vehicle, charging, and grant support needs.\nThe Lightning products include integrated all-electric powertrains for the Ford Transit 350HD passenger and cargo vans, Ford E-450 shuttle bus and cutaway models, Ford F-59 step/food van, Ford F-550 cargo trucks and buses, Chevrolet 6500XD Low Cab Forward model, and 30-foot, 35-foot, and 40-foot transit buses.\nLightning has 120 vehicles on the road, and 1,500 vehicles already on order from customers. In addition to making vehicles and powertrains, Lightning also provides a full suite of charging solutions for customers.\nThe deal with GIK has an enterprise value of $650 million, although there is also an Earnout of 20.0% of total pro forma shares outstanding to Lightning eMotors shareholders if the stock crosses certain price thresholds.\nAt the current price, of $11.73, GIK has a market cap of approximately $1 billion, a little more than the original transaction valuation. Similar to XL Fleet, Lightning has the risk that retrofitting may only be an interim business opportunity until more EV trucks are produced.\nPublic Chinese EV Companies\nChina will be the biggest EV market opportunity, and EV start-ups may do better there because there isn't as much entrenched competition from domestic auto companies. China is already the largest EV market in the world, with almost a million EVs sold in 2019. Its EV market represents almost half of the global EV sales volume and is much larger than the U.S. market.\nThe Chinese government has ambitions to become a global leader in new energy vehicles. Soon after the coronavirus outbreak subsided within the country, Chinese authorities announced new policies to support the auto and electric vehicle industries.\nThese Chinese companies are traded through American depository shares (ADS) that contain certain risks. There are financial reporting and transparency risks with these companies, and on top of that, the newer companies are being classified as \"emerging growth\" companies that are already exempt from certain transparency requirements set out in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Like the previous EV stock, these stocks have also been very volatile.\nIn addition to legacy auto manufacturers like BYD, there are also three Chinese EV companies that are publicly traded through American depositary shares.\nBYD Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:BYDDY)\nBYD, which means build your dreams, is the automotive subsidiary of the Chinese multinational BYD Co Ltd. It was founded in January 2003, following BYD Company's acquisition of Tsinchuan Automobile Company. The company produces automobiles, buses, electric bicycles, forklifts, rechargeable batteries, and trucks. The current model range of automobiles includes electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and petrol-engined vehicles. Thirteen years ago, on the advice of his famously skeptical lieutenant, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett made a $232 million investment in BYD, a relatively unknown Chinese car company.\nBy parlaying BYD's rechargeable battery technology into a fast-growing carmaking operation, it gained a foothold in the fledgling electric vehicle market, building longer-lasting batteries and cheaper vehicles than American and Japanese manufacturers were managing to do at the time. In BYD, Buffett and Munger believed they had found a company with a shot at one day becoming the largest player in a global automobile market that was inevitably going electric.\nBYD's start to 2021 was strong with 19,871 plug-in electric cars sold in January in China, including hybrid plug-ins. That was a big increase over 2020 but not as much as 2019.\nLI Auto (LI)\nLixiang, formerly known as Chehejia (\"Car and Home\"), was founded in 2015 and went public in the U.S. on July 30th, 2020. It is a Beijing-based electric-vehicle startup with vertically integrated manufacturing. It designs, researches, manufactures, sells, and offers services featuring a few models of electric vehicles.\nThe company's SUVs are hybrids of a sort. They use electric motors (one on the front axle and one on the rear), but those motors are powered by a combination of a 40.5kWh battery packanda 1.2-liter turbocharged engine paired to a 45-liter fuel tank and a 100kW electric generator, which generates power for the battery pack in real-time. The idea is that the car can be driven for about 100 miles on battery power alone, but it has a total range of nearly 500 miles when leveraging the combustion engine generator.\nThe Company's primary product is an SUV under its brand Li ONE. It also sells peripheral products and provides related services, such as charging stalls, vehicle internet connection services, and extended lifetime warranties. Li Auto is looking to sell a variety of SUVs built on its hybrid technology that range from around $21,000 to about $70,000. The company started shipping its first model in late 2019. It's a midsize SUV is well-appointed and has lots of touchscreens and technology. A full-size premium version is planned for release in 2022.\nDeliveries of Li ONEs were 14,464 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a 67.0% quarter-over-quarter increase and setting a new quarterly record. Deliveries for the full year 2020 reached 32,624 vehicles. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $635 million.\nLI auto went public on July 30th, 2020, raising $1.1 billion at an initial price of $15.50 per share but quickly reached almost $24. It is currently valued at approximately $37 billion at a price of approximately $25.72 per share.\nXPeng (XPEV)\nXiaopeng (XPeng) Motors is a Chinese electric vehicle and technology company that designs and manufactures smart cars. It was founded in 2015 and went public on August 27, 2020, using American depository shares, raising about $1 billion. To date, it has raised about $2.6 billion.\nXPeng aims its EVs at technology-savvy middle-class Chinese consumers, with prices ranging from $22,000 to $45,000 after government subsidies. In some ways, it is a Tesla knock-off at a much lower price. XPeng started production of the G3 in November 2018, and as of July 31, 2020, delivered 18,741. It started production of the P7 and began delivery in May 2020, and as of July 31, 2020, it had delivered 1,966 EVs. The P7 has a range of more than 400 miles. It plans to launch a third Smart EV, a sedan, in 2021. The G3 was among the top-three best-selling electric SUVs in China in 2019.\nXPeng is interesting because it has a platform strategy and is moving aggressively into autonomous driving. It uses a platform strategy to expand product offerings by launching one Smart EV model each year to broaden the addressable market. It builds new models on two highly flexible Smart EV platforms, called David and Edward, respectively. The David platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,600 millimeters to 2,800 millimeters, and the Edward platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,800 millimeters to 3,100 millimeters. It also adopted a platform approach for software systems.\nXPeng claims to be developing an autonomous driving capability for its EVs. The P7 is the first production vehicle to feature the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Xavier system-on-a-chip (SoC) autonomous driving platform. The company's Smart Electric Platform Architecture (SEPA) runs on 2 chips - NVIDIA for the XPILOT and Qualcomm's Snapdragon™ 820A for intelligent services and infotainment, including cameras inside and outside, radars, HD-map, and ultrasonic sensors. Like Tesla, it claims it can create sufficiently-autonomous driving without lidar.\nTo enhance brand recognition and allow more people to experience its Smart EVs, it deployed a small number of Smart EVs in a ride-hailing service in Guangzhou on a trial basis, but it has no current plan to scale up a ride-hailing service.\nXpeng sees first-quarter 2021 deliveries rising 450% year-over-year to 12,500 vehicles. Revenues are expected to increase 533% from a year ago. The company didn't provide bottom-line estimates for the quarter, but will likely post another net loss as it ramps up manufacturing, invests in R&D, and builds out a new manufacturing plant set to open in 2022.\nXpeng reported selling 12,964 vehicles in Q4 2020, up 303% from a year ago. It delivered a total of 27,041 vehicles in 2020, up 112%. It makes the P7 sedan, a rival to the made-in-China Tesla Model 3, and the small G3 SUV.\nThe stock opened on August 27, 2020 at a price of $15 and a valuation of $11 billion, but its stock jumped more than 40% shortly after. Its current valuation is about $35 billion at a stock price of approximately $36.13 per share. It had about $300 million in revenue in 2019 with a loss of about $500 million.\nNio (NIO)\nUnlike previous companies, Nio has been a public company for some time. It originally went public in the U.S. back in September of 2018, selling IPO shares at $6.26 and raising $1 billion.\nNio's IPO was far from smooth. After going public at $6.26 per share, it traded down to nearly $1. Then in the middle of the coronavirus outbreak, Nio received a much-needed investment of $1 billion from investors, including state-backed entities.\nNio designs, jointly manufactures, and sells smart and connected premium electric vehicles, attempting to develop next-generation technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving, and artificial intelligence. Joint manufacturing means that it uses a state-owned contract manufacturer to build its cars.\nNio plans to provide customers with comprehensive, convenient, and innovative charging solutions and other user-centric services. It began deliveries of the ES8, a 7-seater high-performance premium electric SUV in China in June 2018, and its variant, the six-seater ES8, in March 2019. Nio officially launched the ES6, a 5-seater high-performance premium electric SUV, in December 2018 and began deliveries in June 2019. It officially launched the EC6, a 5-seater smart premium electric Coupe SUV, in December 2019 with deliveries in 2020.\nNio sold 17,353 EVs in Q4/2020 and 43,728 for the year. It warned a shortage in chips and batteries will force a production slowdown to 7,500 a month in Q2 from 10,000 vehicles a month in February.\nNio currently trades at more than $43 per share, including a big jump recently, for a valuation of approximately $48 billion. It had revenue of $2.3 billion in 2019 for a loss of $3.8 billion.\nSummary\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this should provide exciting new investment opportunities. However, the investment terrain is complex. There are dozens of new start-ups where the public can now invest that were previously exclusively venture capital investment opportunities. Many of these are following different roads to success. There are legacy auto manufacturers that could prosper or get destroyed in this transition. There are some exciting new EV company opportunities in China. And then there is Tesla.\nThis EV roadmap is intended to help investors explore different roads to investment by explaining the basic strategies for these EV companies. These roads can have different opportunities and risks, and the roadmap helps to frame these. Above all, valuation is an overriding risk that is highlighted throughout this article.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":353353349,"gmtCreate":1616463585881,"gmtModify":1704794404919,"author":{"id":"3559787818034959","authorId":"3559787818034959","name":"Ericlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2154f4bb8afd22f8e6fde60b57acb69","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3559787818034959","authorIdStr":"3559787818034959"},"htmlText":"Tough competition in EV,but I believe in Xpeng will be doing good.Hope so in China.","listText":"Tough competition in EV,but I believe in Xpeng will be doing good.Hope so in China.","text":"Tough competition in EV,but I believe in Xpeng will be doing good.Hope so in China.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353353349","repostId":1196402560,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196402560","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616134696,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196402560?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-19 14:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"New Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196402560","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, an","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>It's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.</li>\n <li>Last October, I wrote a popular article providing a roadmap for investing in electric vehicles, but since then, so much has changed: new entrants, new strategies, fluctuating valuations, etc.</li>\n <li>So, I updated and greatly expanded the previous EV investment roadmap.</li>\n <li>This update includes a deeper look at valuations for 23 EV companies with revenue projections, when available.</li>\n <li>It also classifies these EV companies into their primary market categories and summarizes their different strategies.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb96acc615cba9c7842860658c019ab1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\">Photo by Sven Loeffler/iStock via Getty Images\nMy article&nbsp;Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap&nbsp;published five months ago, was popular, and some followers have requested an update. Many new EV companies entered the market, most of them through SPACs. Valuations fluctuated wildly, and there has been a great deal of publicity around these companies.\nThis new updated EV investment roadmap is greatly expanded. In addition to updating the strategies and progress of companies previously discussed, I expanded the number of companies covered. This article also groups EV companies into their primary markets, enabling better comparisons and evaluation of market opportunities. In addition, it includes a comparative valuation chart showing every company's market cap with a comparison to projected revenue, where possible. This takes advantage (good or bad) of looking at the long-term revenue forecasts provided in SPAC mergers that public companies can't make.\nIn addition to the EV manufacturers discussed here, there are also EV investment opportunities in charging station companies, battery manufacturers, and battery materials companies. These were covered in the original roadmap and may also be updated in a later article.\nApproximately 2 million EVs were sold in 2019, and although the number declined along with all auto sales in 2020, it is forecasted to increase in 2021 and reach 8-10 million by 2025. Some forecast that EV sales will be greater than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2030, or even earlier. The automobile market appears to be moving toward a historical transformation, and exceptional investment gains can be made by anticipating new emerging industries and investing in the eventual winners of those new industries. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)are obvious examples. Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to create a new emerging industry.\nThere are also significant risks. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to be released in the next three years, which will drive rapid growth in EV sales. However, the expected sales from these new models, as well as the increasing expectations from Tesla, most likely exceed the total projected market. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the companies covered here won't exist five years from now. It reminds me of the internet bubble of the late 1990s when scores of internet-based companies went public with little or no revenue. Almost all of these failed within three years -- however, a couple, including Amazon, went on to enormous success.\nEVs provide a major new investment opportunity with high risks. To succeed, you need to have a clear EV investment roadmap.\nSo, how can you invest in this new emerging market? The EV landscape is complex and investment opportunities are varied. While Tesla is the unquestioned leader in EVs, some consider it overvalued and unlikely to show exceptional returns to new investors. The current U.S. legacy automakers are committed to introducing many new EVs in the next few years, and they have some entrenched advantages with volume manufacturing capabilities, a dealer infrastructure, and loyal customers. There are exciting new EV start-ups in the U.S. that have come public this year, mostly through Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), and there are several interesting publicly traded Chinese EV manufacturers.\nThis new roadmap for EV investment classifies companies into three primary markets segments:\n<ul>\n <li>TheConsumer Retailsegment includes EVs sold to consumers individually, such as SUVs, pickup trucks, sedans, etc.</li>\n <li>TheCommercial Deliverysegment includes local delivery EV vans and trucks sold to fleets.</li>\n <li>TheMedium- and Long-Haul Truckingsegment includes heavier Class 4 - Class 8 trucks, as well as special industrial vehicles.</li>\n</ul>\nIn addition, it categorizesLegacy ManufacturersandChinese EV Companies. This enables investors to evaluate investment opportunities by considering unique opportunities within each market segment.\nThere is an enormous amount of investment optimism for EVs, and retail investors have been aggressively buying into EV stocks with seemingly no regard for valuation. Then there is the additional challenge of valuing companies with no revenue, especially those coming public through SPACs. So, valuation is an important investment consideration.\nSo let's start by looking at an overview of comparative EV valuations.\nEV Investment Valuation Overview\nThe following chart summarizes valuations for 23 EV companies, including several legacy companies. For SPACs, market cap estimates are computed using the pro forma number of shares at closing, otherwise using the valuation of the SPAC prior to closing drastically underestimates the valuation, which may be misleading to novice investors. Price/Sales ratios (market cap divided by revenue) are used to compare valuations. As a benchmark, current P/S ratios vary. For example, auto and truck companies have a ratio of 2.7X. Software companies have the highest ratios of over 10X.\nIn the chart, companies that currently have revenue show current P/S ratios. Where projections are available, projected P/S ratios are computed. A note of caution, however. Many of the EV companies came public through SPACs and published their projections (which public companies cannot do), and many of these are likely to prove unrealistic.\nAll of the longer-term revenue projections come from the company (C) forecasts with a SPAC. Some of these may turn out to be accurate, not many are most likely unrealistic. Some, like Lucid, Faraday, and Arrival forecast hitting more than $10 billion in revenue in a few years, when it took Tesla more than 10. Things are different now and they might achieve these, but they could also find that it will take longer to complete development, ramp up production, and create enough customer demand. Many companies may also find that there will be significant capital requirements to achieve this type of growth, and shareholders will be diluted.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc360dfa7de01516b7f68d5962cf3017\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"883\">\nTesla, the \"gold standard\" in EVs, has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, which many people believe is overvalued. Its market cap is approximately 20X 2020 revenue and 10X estimated 2022 revenue.\nTesla (TSLA)\nIn the U.S., and to a lesser extent in China, Tesla is the dominant EV provider. It has approximately 60% of the U.S. EV market and about 20% of the market in China. I own a Tesla and love it, but an investment in Tesla stock requires getting comfortable with its valuation. Tesla has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, although declining lately, which some consider still overvalued while others see upside potential.\nThe investment opportunity with Tesla is based on the expectation that it will continue to dominate the EV market, or at least maintain significant market share, despite much greater competition from the expected introduction of hundreds of new EV models in the next few years.\nThere is a great deal already published about Tesla, so I'll move on.\nLegacy Automakers\nSome people think that the legacy automakers will simply fade away. Historically, that was the case in some other industries, but it is not going to happen to most automakers. They are not standing still waiting to become obsolete. Most have aggressive strategies to replace ICE vehicles with EVs. GM plans to invest $27 billion and build and launch as many as 30 new EV models by 2025. Ford plans to invest $29 billion in EVs by 2025 and launch as many as 16 EVs in the next two years. Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY)has also committed billions to develop new EVs.\nThe competitive advantage that legacy automakers have in selling their new EVs is their dealer network. Will new EV customers prefer to continue going to their regular auto dealer to buy their new EV?\nAlmost all legacy automakers worldwide are developing and launching EVs including Volkswagen, Peugeot, Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi, Hyundai/Kia. Let's look a little more closely at GM and Ford as the leaders in the U.S.\nGeneral Motors (GM)\nGM has committed to introducing 20 new electric vehicles by 2023, including EVs across Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC, and Buick. It recently announced that it has already sold out the first-year production of its Hummer electric pickup. By mid-decade, it expects to sell a million EVs per year in its two largest markets: North America and China. As a reference point, Tesla reported deliveries of 367,500 vehicles globally in 2019.\nGM has a solid platform strategy for its EVs. It plans on building its EVs using five interchangeable drive units and three different motors from its Ultium Drive System platform. Ultium energy options range from 50 to 200 kWh, which could enable an estimated range of up to 400 miles. Most of its EVs will have 400-volt battery packs and up to 200 kW fast-charging capability while the truck platform will have 800-volt battery packs and 350 kW fast-charging capabilities.\nThe key building blocks of the Ultium battery system are large-scale, high-energy cells. Engineered in partnership with LG Energy Solutions, they use both advanced chemistry and a smart cell design that's optimized for a broad portfolio of EVs. GM engineers and scientists are actively researching and testing new elements in battery chemistry to lower costs and improve charge times. Ultium can contain either vertically- or horizontally-stacked cells to integrate into vehicle design: vertically for trucks, SUVs, and crossovers, or horizontally for cars and performance vehicles. As new chemistry is developed and becomes available, the battery management system could digitally update the modules.\nGM also has other EV opportunities with its BrightDrop commercial EV service and its Cruise subsidiary. BrightDrop will not just sell delivery EVs, it will provide an entire service platform for commercial delivery customers. Its set of electric delivery vehicles starts with the EV600 and includes the BrightDrop EP1, a pod-like electric pallet. SeeGeneral Motors' Aggressive EV/AV Strategies May Payoff Big.\nWith its highest stock price of $61.65, GM's current market cap is approximately $89 billion, increasing primarily because of its progress with EVs. This approximately 3X valuation in 2018, but still only 13% of Tesla.\nFord (F)\nFord is also investing heavily in EVs. It just introduced the Mustang Mach-E, a battery-powered crossover with sports car styling, and plans to introduce an all-electric version of its best-selling F-150 pickup later this year. Also, planned is an electric edition of the full-size Transit van, which has been popular in the commercial delivery market. Ford has confirmed plans to build a luxury Lincoln crossover on a battery-powered platform provided by Rivian. The automaker also plans to introduce two new midsize electric crossovers, one each for the Ford and Lincoln brands by 2023.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd8523e15bccc57790940d4218f7b94e\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"1080\">Mustang Mach-E. Source: Ford\nFord's market cap is approximately $51 billion, twice its previous market cap, and also increasing.\nConsumer Retail EV Companies\nThe consumer retail market has some unique characteristics for new EV companies. Sales are made individually, not in fleets. This diversifies the risk upon launch because only a sufficient number of customers need to be attracted to the new EV. A wave of popularity can provide terrific momentum.\nHowever, the lack of a dealer network can be an impediment. Selling EVs directly to consumers instead of through dealers is prohibited in most states. By law, auto manufacturers can't compete with franchised dealers. These are laws that go back many decades to protect dealers. This can be a major impediment for new companies without established independent dealer franchises. So, new AV companies. like Tesla, need to sell their vehicles online. Tesla has successfully done this, but it took a lot of work and time. Lack of a dealer network also creates impediments in service.\nIn addition, over the next 4-5 years, autonomous capabilities will be increasingly important to luxury vehicles. This may prove to be a challenge to start-up EV companies because they can't afford to develop this technology.\nLet's look closer at the alternative consumer retail EV investments.\nLucid Motors (CCIV)\nLucid was founded in 2007 under the name Atieva and originally focused on building electric vehicle batteries and powertrains for other vehicle manufacturers. The company rebranded itself as Lucid Motors in October 2016 and shifted its strategy to develop an all-electric, high-performance, luxury vehicle. Shortly after that, it encountered financial difficulties and struggled to get short-term funding. In 2018 it raised more than $1 billion in investment, primarily from Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund, and gave up a majority of the company.\nLucid Motors reached an agreement to become a publicly-traded company through a merger with the SPAC Churchill Capital IV Corp., in one of the largest deals SPAC EV deals. The combined company, in which Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund will continue to be the largest shareholder, had a transaction equity value of $11.75 billion (for $10/share). At the same time, it closed a PIPE investment priced at $15 a share, giving it an implied pro forma equity value of $24 billion. Rumors about this deal circulated before the transaction was formally announced, making it one of the most anticipated SPAC deals. The hype and speculation drove up the stock price of Churchill Capital IV Corp. from its opening price of $10 a share to almost $60. I believe that some of this may have been driven by novice SPAC investors who didn't realize that the valuation of CCIV didn't include the eventual valuation of Lucid. The share price dropped more than 30% after the details of the deal were announced. It's also likely that Lucid renegotiated the terms of the merger based on the price jump.\nThe company's first product is the Lucid Air, a well-equipped luxury electric vehicle that features 406 miles of projected range and 480 horsepower with a starting price of $77,400, or $69,900 after the U.S. Federal Tax Credit of $7,500. This new Lucid Air model is positioned as a high-performance, ultra-efficient luxury EV sedan in a line of future vehicles that are expected to include Lucid Air Touring, Grand Touring, and Dream Edition versions.\nThe company plans to begin production and deliveries of the Lucid Air in North America in the second half of 2021. Previously the company aimed to begin deliveries earlier in 2021. It intends to sell the car in Europe in 2022, followed by China in 2023. Lucid vehicles will be produced at its new factory in Casa Grande, Arizona. The company plans to expand the factory in phases in the coming years to have the capacity to produce 365,000 units per year at scale. The initial phase of the $700 million factory construction was completed late last year and will have the capacity to produce 30,000 vehicles a year.\nLucid also apparently has a commitment to build an assembly plant in Saudi Arabia, which was rumored to be a condition of the $1 billion investment from the Saudi public fund. The Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund also provided $600 million in bridge financing and invested in the SPAC deal as well. So, while this assembly plant may be expensive and may not be critical, it will most likely need to happen.\nLucid has ambitious plans to achieve $14 billion in revenue in 2025, and its current stock price at $29.17, which gives it a market cap of more than $46 billion, may already reflect those ambitions. Its market cap is roughly the same as Ford.\nFisker (FSR)\nFisker, which had its origins with Fisker Automotive, is an interesting story that ended in bankruptcy. Henrik Fisker originally co-founded Fisker Automotive in 2007. He was responsible for designing many premium cars such as the Aston Martin. Subsequently, Fisker Automotive had to deal with a Tesla lawsuit against Fisker Automotive alleging it stole Tesla's technology, a controversial $528.7 million conditional loan from the Department of Energy, a recall of its battery produced by A123, and the loss of several hundred vehicles in hurricane Sandy. Henrik Fisker resigned in March 2013 because of disagreements over business strategy and in November 2013, Fisker filed its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case.\nHowever, Henrik Fisker retained the Fisker brand and trademarks, and in 2016 he started another electric vehicle company named Fisker Inc. with the Fisker brand and trademarks. In 2019, Fisker shifted from developing a sports car with a solid-state battery to the Ocean SUV featuring a lithium-ion battery, which it later abandoned for a solid-state battery.\nFisker is positioning itself in a unique segment for those who want the most environmentally friendly EV. While this may be an early growth segment for EVs, it's difficult to estimate its eventual competitive advantage and the size of this environmentally-friendly market segment.\nThe Ocean is a crossover made of recycled metal and plastic with an expected base price of $37,499, and an expected lease of less than $400 a month. Fisker's plan is essentially a lease-only business model that lets customers keep a vehicle for years or return it at any time. It aims to source motors, batteries, and other components from technical partnerships with automakers and will outsource production from existing auto plants. Fisker is currently taking reservations at $250 for the Ocean. It also announced an agreement with Foxconn to jointly develop a vehicle pioneering a new market segment to be sold globally under the Fisker brand commencing in Q4 2023. at the end of 2022. Production will start at Magna Steyr's manufacturing facilities in Europe. At the end of February 2021, it had 12,467 cancellable reservations.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/924a617c90fc3276d7bdab8c64ebfdcf\" tg-width=\"744\" tg-height=\"389\">Fisker Ocean. Source: Fisker\nFisker went public using a SPAC (Spartan Energy). The original combination with SPAQ in October 2020 was valued at $2.9 billion with a cash investment of approximately $1 billion. The stock currently trades at approximately $21 per share, after reaching a high of $28.50, from the original price of $10, which is a market cap of $4.6 billion. Fisker projects $3.3 billion in revenue in 2023. It had almost $1 billion in cash at the end of 2020 and expected to use almost half of this in 2021: $250 million on operating expenses and $250 million in capital investments. If the Ocean is delayed into 2023, Fisker risks missing its revenue objective and will potentially need additional cash to complete development and launch.\nFaraday Future (PSAC)\nFaraday Future was originally established in May 2014 by Chinese businessman Jia Yueting. It is headquartered in Los Angeles and has offices in Silicon Valley, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu. Faraday Future also had a turbulent history. In 2016, it struggled financially, and in 2017 some key executives departed over a dispute about financial issues. They later founded Canoo.\nIn December 2018 the company announced layoffs due to a cash crunch and financial troubles. The company's founder Jia Yueting filed for personal bankruptcy in the United States' federal court in Delaware on October 14, 2019. Following Jia's personal bankruptcy, he decided to step down from his role as CEO of Faraday Future in order to assume a new position as the Chief Product and User Officer. He was replaced as CEO by Carsten Breitfeld, the former CEO at rival electric vehicle startup Byton.\nSomehow, Faraday was able to raise $2.3 billion in private funding over 5 rounds from a variety of investors. In early 2018, it received $1.5 billion in funding from an undisclosed investor from Hong Kong.\nFaraday's flagship product offering will be the FF 91, featuring 1,050 HP, 0-60 mph in less than 2.4 seconds, zero gravity seats with the largest 60-degree reclining angles, and a user experience designed to create a mobile, connected, and luxurious living space. The FF 91 is targeted to launch in 2022.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e38bfb3211c72bb73bc26f2ebe296fe\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"854\">FF 91. Source: Faraday Future\nIts strategic partners include one of China's top three OEMs and a critical Chinese city, which the company believes will help establish its presence in the Chinese vehicle market.\nFaraday Future plans several cars based on its Variable Platform Architecture. FF 91 is the first production vehicle and flagship model. Pricing will range between $120,000 and upwards of $200,000, which places it against formidable opponents. Faraday Future is already looking forward to expanding its range with a pair of smaller models named FF 81 and FF 71. The FF 81 is planned to be priced at $75,000 to 95,000 with a 2023 release. The FF 71 is planned to be priced at $45,000 to $65,000 with a planned release of 2024.\nThe Primary Manufacturing Facility for FF 91 is in Hanford, CA with contract manufacturing for future models in Gunsan, South Korea.\nFaraday Future is planning high-Level automation with a Level-3 capable system using a redundant safety architecture based on NVIDIA Xavier System-on-a-chip. It will be capable of highway auto-drive and hardware ready for advanced auto-drive. It is targeting full autonomous valet parking &amp; summon in any parking lot or structure. Eventually, it expects full auto-drive, including full 360˚ sensor coverage for advanced auto-drive &amp; auto-park features.\nIn January 2021, Faraday Future announced that the company would go public through a reverse merger with the special purpose acquisition company Property Solutions Acquisition Corp. (PSAC). The combined company will be valued at $3.4 billion. Faraday Future is expected to set up contract manufacturing operations in China through their partnership with Geely. Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn is also expected to serve as an additional strategic partner.\nFaraday Future projects $10.5 billion in revenue in 2024 and $21.5 billion in 2025. Revenue is expected to start in 2022 with the delivery of 2,400 vehicles for $504 million. Most likely these projections could prove to be optimistic. At a current stock price of approximately $12.80, it has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nLordstown Motors (RIDE)\nLordstown Motors based in Lordstown, Ohio, was originally founded in 2018 by Steve Burns, the former CEO of Workhorse Group. The company licensed technology from Workhorse in return for royalties and a 10% ownership. Lordstown is named after the famous GM Lordstown manufacturing plant, which it acquired in November 2019 in an unusual transaction. GM announced that it was closing the plant and was under a great deal of pressure for that decision. So, GM \"sold\" the plant to a company that was renamed Lordstown for an estimated $20 million that it loaned to the acquiring company. Subsequently, the sale was redefined to be part of a $75 million investment by GM, of which $50 million was an in-kind exchange for the plant.\nLordstown went public through the SPAC DiamondPeak Holdings Corp. in 2020. It currently has more than 400 employees.\nIts first product is the Lordstown Endurance, a full-sized EV pickup truck. Lordstown is positioning Endurance for the pickup fleet market segment. The expected price is $52,000+, and it claimed to have more than 100,000 pre-orders by January 2021. However, a recent research article published by a short seller claimed \"Our research has revealed that Lordstown's order book consists of fake or entirely non-binding orders, from customers that generally do not even have fleets of vehicles.\" Lordstown is disputing that article.\nIt believes the fleet pickup market segment is underserved with no current EV-focused competition. It estimates that the full-sized pick-up truck fleet market is 1.2 million vehicles per year in the U.S., but it's more fragmented than other truck fleets. Pickup \"fleets\" tend to be much smaller and local, so there may not be much of a market distinction for a small company buying several EV pickups from a traditional auto dealer. About half of the total U.S. pickup market is classified as fleet sales, meaning more than one.\nEven though Lordstown is targeting the commercial fleet market, it is a similar product to the Ford EV F-150. So I classify it in the consumer EV category. It is a class 2 vehicle. Lordstown also may enter the SUV market in the longer-term.\nThe Endurance will compete against future models from Rivian and Tesla, as well as Ford and GM in ICE pick-ups and their upcoming EV pick-ups. Ford plans on selling its EV F-150 in mid-2022. Initial production of the Endurance is expected in the second half of 2021, so it may have a short market advantage. Nevertheless, it forecasts selling 65,000 vehicles in 2023 and 107,000 in 2024. These estimates could be a large percentage of the EV pick-up market in those years.\nAt the SPAC merger, the implied valuation for Lordstown was $1.6 billion, including a $500 million PIPE and the $75 million by GM. Lordstown's financial projections appear to be aggressive. It projects to start shipping the Endurance in late 2021 with projected revenue in 2022 of $1.7 billion, increasing to $5.8 billion in 2024. Its stock price at approximately $13.60 values the company at a market cap of approximately $2.2 billion. The value of the company depends on the likelihood of achieving its projections.\nA fleet sales strategy makes sense for Lordstown since it would be too expensive to build a retail sales and service capability. However, it's not clear that this will become a distinct competitive advantage. Some small fleets may still prefer to buy their EV pickups from established local dealers with service capabilities.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nCanoo started as Evelozcity in 2017 and rebranded as Canoo in the spring of 2019. Canoo is a Los Angeles-based company that develops electric vehicles. It has over 350 employees. Canoo has designed a modular electric platform purpose-built to deliver maximum vehicle interior space, which is adaptable to support a wide range of vehicle applications for consumers and businesses. Canoo expects to launch its first consumer model in 2022, simply named the Canoo that will be available by subscription, followed shortly after by a multi-purpose delivery vehicle and a sports vehicle, each built off of the same underlying platform. Canoo went public using a SPAC (Hennessy Capital Acquisition) and now trades as GOEV.\nCanoo's all-electric skateboard-like platform is designed to support both consumer retail and commercial vehicle configurations. The EV leverages Canoo's flat skateboard architecture for a high level of usable interior space. Its commercial vehicle program, expected in 2023, addresses a projected $50B+ last-mile delivery market with an EV platform that maximizes cargo volume.\nHyundai Motor Group said it would jointly develop an electric vehicle platform with the company.\nCanoo's platform strategy is interesting. It could be used as an EV platform for custom fleets of delivery vehicles. It has no AV development, but it claims to be \"AV Ready\" which could be useful for AV companies wanting to build custom AV delivery fleets.\nIts all-electric multi-purpose delivery vehicle is expected to be priced starting at approximately $33,000. It is based on Canoo's proprietary electric platform and will be offered in two initial size variants, with others to follow. Limited availability will begin in 2022, with scaled production and launch planned for 2023. Customers can pre-order the multi-purpose delivery vehicle for a refundable deposit of $100 per vehicle\nIt plans to offer two multi-purpose delivery vehicles: the MPDV1 and the larger MPDV2. The first has a 200-foot cargo volume and a range of 130-200 miles. It offers more capacity than today's ICE delivery vehicles at an affordable price with urban mobility enabled by a space-efficient footprint. The vehicle is also designed to fit within many height-restricted areas like parking garages.\nThe MPDV2 has a cargo volume of 450 feet and a range of 90-190 miles. Its roof and step-in height enable individuals to easily walk-in the vehicle and accommodate a standing position while inside.\nThe original SPAC transaction provided approximately $600 million, with a pro forma equity value of approximately $2.4 billion. Like other SPAC mergers, its stock price has fluctuated. It currently trades at about $15.90 per share for a market cap of approximately $3.7 billion. Canoo projects $2.0 billion in revenue in 2025 from about $500 million in engineering services, $1.2 billion from its consumer vehicle subscriptions, and the remainder from its commercial program. Canoo expects revenue of more than $300 million in 2022 after the launch of its lifestyle consumer vehicle.\nSince its first products are aimed at consumers, as is most of its forecasted 2025 revenue, I categorize it primarily as a consumer EV company. However, I think the design of that Canoo vehicle may not attract enough customers. More importantly, its subscription service way of selling its EV to consumers is risky. I think it has more potential in the commercial market, however, a dual strategy (consumer and commercial) is challenging. I like its skateboard platform design and that could prove to be a competitive advantage.\nRivian\nAlthough not yet public, I include Rivian because it has plans for an IPO as soon as Sept 2021, although it could slip into 2022. There are rumors that the company is targeting a market valuation of approximately $50B. Rivian has already raised more than $8 billion to date from Amazon, Ford, T. Rowe Price, and others.\nRivian has developed and vertically integrated a connected electric platform that can be flexibly applied to a range of applications, including the company's adventure products, as well as B2B products such as the Amazon last-mile delivery vans. The company's initial products, the R1T and R1S, provide a combination of performance, off-road capability, and utility. These vehicles will be produced at Rivian's manufacturing plant in Normal, Ill., with customer deliveries expected to begin in summer 2021. The launch of the R1S three-row electric SUV will follow in August.\nAdditional lower-priced models are being planned. The expected R2 series would include at least two smaller electric vehicles to coincide with the smaller platform, then another platform for R3.\nCommercial Delivery EV Companies\nEV truck companies differ based on the type of truck they are developing. The technology and markets are very different, so I separate them into two categories. The first category includes commercial delivery vehicles.\nCompanies making EV delivery vehicles have some major advantages that could make them good investments. First, delivery vehicles typically travel less than 250 miles during a day, so they can be conveniently recharged overnight. Secondly, they are typically sold in large quantities to fleets. This means that building a retail sales infrastructure is not necessary. It only requires a small salesforce. In addition, maintenance can also be provided at the fleet's operational center, so not as many service centers are required.\nThe disadvantage in this market is that there are a relatively small number of customers that buy in large volumes, so if the EV manufacturer can't get enough large customers, they may not be able to stay in business. GM estimates the combined market opportunity for parcel and food delivery, as well as reverse logistics, in the U.S. will be more than $850 billion by 2025.\nThe commercial market is expected to be a major growth area for EVs. Other start-up automakers like Rivian as well as legacy automakers such as Ford, Daimler, and GM have announced plans to enter the segment. GM recently announced its BrightDrop ecosystem for commercial customers that includes an all-new electric delivery van, the EV600 available by the end of 2021, as well as an integrated autonomous pallet and related services.\nThis group of EV companies focuses primarily on commercial delivery. In general, these are in the light-duty trucks category, although it also includes some medium-duty trucks. This generally includes the following commercial truck classes:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 1: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 0-6,000 pounds or 0-2,722 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 2: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 6,001-10,000 pounds or 2,722-4,536 kilograms.1</li>\n <li>Class 3: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 10,001-14,000 pounds or 4,536-6,350 kilograms.</li>\n</ul>\nIt can also include somewhat larger medium-duty EV delivery trucks:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.</li>\n</ul>\nEV delivery trucks also have an advantage over ICE vehicles because they can have a greater delivery storage space. Smaller buses and transit vehicles are also included in this category.\nLast-mile package delivery is not an immediate-term autonomous vehicle opportunity because it requires a delivery person to be on the truck anyway.\nWorkhorse Group (WKHS)\nWorkhorse has been a public company for ten years. Originally AMP Electric Vehicles, it was established in 2007 as a developmental-stage vehicle electrification company, focusing on conversions. AMP Electric Vehicles went public in 2010 trading on the OTC market under the AMPD symbol. When the economic benefits of conversion became less certain, it pivoted away from passenger vehicles and began to focus on electrifying commercial vehicles. AMP acquired the Workhorse brand and the Workhorse custom chassis assembly plant in Union City. In March of 2013, AMP formally changed its name to Workhorse Group Incorporated.\nThe Company designs and builds a last-mile delivery electric vehicle. The C-Series EVs cover the larger size of commercial delivery vehicles in Classes 3-5. As part of its solutions, it also develops cloud-based, real-time telematics performance monitoring systems. It sells its vehicles to fleet customers directly and through its primary distributor, Ryder Systems. It is currently focused on bringing the C-Series electric delivery truck to market and fulfilling the existing backlog of orders.\nThe C-Series looks like a viable EV replacement for the 350,000 last-mile delivery vehicles sold in the U.S. annually. It recently announced an increased driving range from 100 miles to 160, which should open more market opportunities. It has a viable short-term go-to-market strategy selling fleets to delivery companies. It currently has test vehicles with UPS, DHL, FedEx, Amazon, and Walmart.\nWorkhorse recently lost out on the United States Postal Services Next Generation Delivery Vehicle project, however, it is in the process of challenging this decision. Additionally, its investment in Lordstown also provides an indirect investment opportunity. On November 7, 2019, the Company entered a transaction with Lordstown Motors to grant LMC a perpetual and worldwide license to certain intellectual property relating to its W-15 electric pickup truck platform and related technology in exchange for royalties, equity interest (approximately 10%) in LMC, and other considerations. This was a $320 million asset for Workhorse at the end of 2020.\nWorkhorse received a significant increase in orders in Q4/2020 but built just seven trucks in the fourth quarter due to production systems and supply chain issues. Workhorse plans to continue to take it slow, striving to build three of its composite-body battery-electric trucks a day in March with a plan to reach 10 trucks a day by the end of June. This makes its original 2021 goal of producing 1,800 trucks unlikely. It partnered with Hitachi and Hitachi Capital America (\"HCA\") to improve the Company's manufacturing, operational, and supply chain capabilities as well as to develop a national dealer network to support Workhorse's sales with vehicle financing options for both dealers and customers.\nWorkhorse has a market cap of approximately $1.9 billion. While Workhorse had ongoing revenue, unlike many other new EV companies, its revenue is still insignificant. It had a revenue of $1.4 million in 2020 and $377,000 in 2019. It has a backlog of over 8,000 vehicles but doesn't expect to be able to build many of those in 2021. It raised $270 million in capital over several financings, providing the Company with additional capital to build its backlog. It had cash of $215 million as of March 1, 2021. Because Workhorse is a traditional public company, it hasn't made long-term financial projections like SPAC-based companies.\nElectric Last Mile (FIII)\nElectric Last Mile, based in Troy Michigan, was founded by Jason Luo, former CEO of Ford China before it was acquired by China's Ningbo Joyson Electronic for $920 million in 2016, including James Taylor, former CEO of GM's Hummer brand and former CEO of electric car maker Karma Automotive. Taylor serves as the company's top executive with Luo as the company's chairman.\nThe company plans to launch a small electric delivery van (class 1-2), called the UD-1, in the third quarter of 2021, and then introduce an Urban Utility vehicle (Class 2-3) in 2022. These are expected to compete with Workhorse, Rivian, Canoo, as well as the Ford eTransit and the GMC BV1, none of which is expected to be a Class 1 vehicle.\nThe company says it has 30,000 preorders for its van, representing more than $1 billion in sales. Electric Last Miles vehicles will be based on Sokon's commercial van made in China through a joint venture with Dongfeng Automobile Co Ltd. in order to accelerate development time.\nElectric Last Mile (ELM) is expected to manufacture the vans in a former General Motors Co. Hummer plant in Mishawaka, Ind., that the company is acquiring from China's Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co. Ltd. The plant has the capacity to produce 100,000 vehicles annually with plans to build approximately 4,000 UD-1 vans by the end of 2021. The UD-1 has a starting price of $32,500 and a range of 150 miles. The battery for the vehicle is expected to be supplied by the Chinese battery company CATL.\nELM believes that it has a competitive advantage because its first vehicle, the ELM Urban Delivery, is scheduled to be available in 2021. It is based on a proven, existing platform developed and sold by Sokon Group in the Asian market, where there are 30,000 of these electric delivery vehicles driving 1.5 million miles every day. At the close of the business combination, ELM will be an independent, U.S. company producing electric vehicles in the U.S. with Sokon Group providing access to its know-how, parts supply, and field and service data.\nELM expects that the Urban Delivery vehicle will be the first electric delivery vehicle coming to market in the class 1 category (GVW of 6,000 lbs or less) in the U.S. It will also have 35% more carrying volume compared to similar ICE delivery vehicles, a critical part of the value proposition. It also anticipates that its price and greater carrying volume will allow it to take market share from the class 2 category of vehicles as well.\nIts crossover product portfolio strategy targets commercial delivery vehicles spanning from class 1 to class 3, which represents over 80% of the last mile market.\nELM anticipates $122 million in revenue in 2021, rapidly increasing to $3 billion in 2025. The price of FIII stock increased immediately following its announcement with Electric Last Mile, rising more than 40% to $14.50, but now it has dropped closer to the original deal price to $10.25 for a market cap of approximately $1.5 billion.\nGreenPower Motor Company (GP)\nGreenPower Motor Company Inc. is a Canadian battery-electric bus manufacturer with multiple models of high- and low-floor vehicles, including transit buses, school buses, and shuttles. GreenPower offers commercial vehicles for delivery, public transit, schools, vanpooling, micro-transit, shuttles, and is developing a capability of autonomous operation. It went public on August 28, 2020.\nIn 2014 GreenPower launched its first purpose-built, battery-electric bus, the EV350, 40-foot transit bus. GreenPower received its first order in 2017 for ten EV350s from the City of Porterville, California.\nGreenPower's electric buses are purpose-built and designed to be all-electric, allowing it to put the battery and propulsion system in optimized locations that provide weight and structural advantages. Its primary EV is the EV Star with more than 120 vehicles delivered. It comes in several variations:\n<ul>\n <li>EV Star - Up to 19 passengers</li>\n <li>EV Star Plus - Up to 24 passengers</li>\n <li>EV Star ADA - Passenger and curbside lift for ADA</li>\n <li>EV Star Cargo - 5,000 pounds of load</li>\n <li>EV Star Cargo Plus - 570 cubic feet of cargo space.</li>\n</ul>\nIts EV school bus seats up to 90 students and has a range of up to 150 miles.\nGreenPower had revenue of $13.5 million in 2020 It has about $21 million in cash. It's an interesting alternative since it is already shipping EVs, has revenue, and also has a lower market cap of less than $1 billion. Since it did a traditional IPO, it hasn't published longer-term financial forecasts.\nArrival (CIIC)\nArrival was founded in 2015 in London to make a variety of commercial electric vehicles. It has approximately 1,200 employees across 11 cities in 8 countries. In November 2020, Arrival and the SPAC CIIG entered into a business combination agreement with an implied valuation of $5.39 billion.\nArrival plans on releasing four commercial EVs over the next few years.\n<ul>\n <li>Q4/2021: An electric bus for 8-125 passengers and a range of 240-400km</li>\n <li>Q3/2022: An electric delivery van with a payload of 975-2,000kg and a range of 150-340km</li>\n <li>2022: A larger electric van with a payload of 4,000 kg and a range of 190-400km</li>\n <li>2023: a small vehicle platform with a range of 100-300km.</li>\n</ul>\nThis mix provides a nice diversified portfolio of EVs. Arrival claims to have received orders from UPS for 10,000 vans. It plans a unique flexible manufacturing approach using micro-factories with each projected to manufacture 10,000 vans per year. All of its vehicles use a modular skateboard electric platform.\nArrival ambitiously projects $14.1 billion in revenue in 2024. Half of that revenue is expected from delivery vans, 22% from buses, and the rest from the large van and its small vehicle platform. With CIIC's stock price at $24.80 per share, Arrival's current market cap is relatively high at approximately $15.0 billion. Justifying its market cap depends on its ability to release, sell, and produce its four commercial EVs.\nProterra (ACTC)\nProterra is a commercial electric vehicle company with over a decade of production experience. The Company has designed an end-to-end, flexible technology platform that claims to deliver higher performance and a low total cost of ownership to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end customers.\nProterra, Inc., was originally founded in Golden, Colorado, by Dale Hill in 2004. Later the company wanted to take the lead in creating zero-emission, U.S.-based transit buses. In 2010 it moved its manufacturing plant from Golden, Colorado to Greenville, South Carolina. In 2015, Proterra was awarded a $3 million grant from the California Energy Commission to fund the design, development, and construction of the company's battery-electric transit bus manufacturing line in the City of Industry, California. It moved its headquarters from Greenville, South Carolina, to Burlingame, California, in October 2015. Proterra raised more than $600 million in funding.\nIt is going public through the SPAC ArcLight (ACTC) with a pro forma valuation of $1.6 billion. Upon completion of the transaction, Proterra expects to have up to $825 million in cash to fund growth initiatives, including R&amp;D and the expansion of its next-generation battery program.\nProterra has three complementary businesses:\n<ul>\n <li>Proterra Powered: Delivering battery systems and electrification solutions to commercial vehicle manufacturers</li>\n <li>Proterra Transit:Providing an electric transit bus OEMs</li>\n <li>Proterra Energy:Offering turnkey charging and energy management solutions.</li>\n</ul>\nThe company's battery systems have been proven in more than 16 million service miles driven by its fleet of transit vehicles and validated through partnerships with commercial vehicle OEMs. Proterra has produced and delivered more than 300 megawatt-hours of battery systems, more than 550 heavy-duty electric transit buses, and installed 54 megawatts of charging systems.\nProterra expected $193 million of revenue in 2020, with an estimated $750 million in existing orders and backlog. It projects $2.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with about 1/3 coming from its Transit business, and 2/3 From Powered &amp; Energy. At ACTC's current stock price of $17.85, Proterra has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nRivian\nRivian (see earlier description in consumer retail) will also compete in the commercial delivery market. It has been working with Amazon (a major investor) to build large electric delivery vans for Prime. Developed specifically for Amazon, a small fleet of Prime vans is on the road now, testing deliveries to customers and gathering feedback. In late fall, it could grow to a large fleet as Rivian ramps up the volume.\nThe EV range of 150 miles is tailored to Amazon's use cycle to optimize the size, weight, and cost of the commercial vehicle. Rivian has three sizes of batteries, but Amazon is starting with just one of them.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nSee the previous summary under consumer retail EV.\nMedium and Long-Haul Trucking EV Companies\nCompanies developing medium- and long-haul EV trucks face a more difficult challenge with battery range. These trucks haul much more weight than commercial delivery vehicles and because they are designed for long distances, they can't stop every 200-300 miles for recharging.\nFor this reason, many of these companies are using unique hybrid technologies for their trucks. The EV trucks in this category are primarily heavy-duty but also include some medium-duty trucks and specialty vehicles. A couple of the companies focus on retrofitting trucks to be electric.\nMedium-Duty Trucks\nThe medium-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 4, 5, and 6:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 6: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 19,501-26,000 pounds or 8,846-11,793 kilograms.1</li>\n</ul>\nHeavy-Duty Trucks\nThe heavy-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 7 and 8:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 7: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 26,001 to 33,000 pounds or 11,794-14,969 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 8: This class of trucks has a GVWR of greater than 33,001 pounds or 14,969 kilograms and includes all tractor-trailers.</li>\n</ul>\nThe Tesla Semi is a battery vehicle planned for a range of 300 or 500 miles and a speed of 60 MPH with 80,000 lbs of cargo. Tesla plans to start shipping the Semi later this year when it expects to have sufficient cell volume to meet its needs with the production of its 4680 battery pack.\nNikola(NASDAQ:NKLA)\nNikola has been a very controversial company. Founded in 2015, it originally had two different strategies. Its primary strategy is to lease fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) Class-8 heavy trucks and provide the refueling infrastructure to corporate customers. Its second strategy was to develop the Badger EV truck using GM technology.\nNikola originally merged with a SPAC to go public, at an enterprise value of approximately $3.3 billion. On June 6th, 2020, its market cap jumped to more than $30 billion, then later it dropped because of problems with its originally planned deal with GM.\nNikola originally expected a deal with General Motors that included the production of the Nikola Badger EV pickup truck. The proposed arrangement was that GM would take a $2 billion equity stake in Nikola and in return would engineer and produce the Badger. In November 2020, GM and Nikola scrapped the original arrangement. Now it appears that GM will supply Nikola with only its Hydrotec hydrogen fuel-cell technology to integrate into the EV manufacturer's commercial class 7 and class 8 zero-emission semi-trucks. So, the Badger is probably dead.\nNikola now sees semi-trucks as the company's \"core business\" and fuel cells as an increasingly important segment of the semi-truck market thanks to their efficiency in weight and consumption. It expects to begin testing by the end of 2021.\nIt has received pre-orders from Anheuser-Busch and a few other companies, but it doesn't expect deliveries until 2023. Hydrogen fueling stations are key to its strategy, both providing a source of revenue and necessary fueling infrastructure for the trucks to operate, but they also cost a lot. In its March 2020 investor deck, Nikola said a single station capable of fueling 210 trucks a day would cost $16.6 million. Its initial planned network of 700 stations would cost roughly $11.6 billion.\nNikola was also accused of misrepresentation, and its executive chairman and founder stepped down.\nAt the time of the SPAC merger, it projected an optimistic forecast of more than $3 billion in revenue by 2024, with a net income of $145 million. Most of that revenue was expected to come from its Badger truck, which is no longer in the plans. Yet its market cap is still almost $6 billion.\nHyliion (HYLN)\nHyliion, founded in 2015 in Austin, went public in October 2020 through the SPAC Tortoise Acquisition Corp. (SHLL). In March 2019, automotive parts manufacturer Dana Inc. made an equity investment into Hyliion, and together they are manufacturing and marketing Class 8 EVs to Dana's customers, including Volvo, Navistar, and Peterbilt.\nHyliion's strategy is unique, and a very different strategy from Nikola. Essentially it generates electricity onboard the truck using compressed natural gas (CNG). This should be a benefit for longer-range trucking. Hyliion's Hypertruck concept involves an all-electric drivetrain utilizing Dana's electric motor, inverter, and axle technologies. The truck's batteries are fueled by onboard tanks of CNG. With some 700 CNG stations already operating nationwide, it believes that there no need to build out expensive superchargers or hydrogen infrastructure.\nKuwait-based logistics company, Agility, has already placed an order for 1,000 Hypertrucks with initial deliveries targeted in 2022. Combined with a fully electric drivetrain and a natural gas-powered onboard generator to recharge the battery, the Hypertruck ERX will provide more than 1,000 miles of range.\nHyliion will eventually compete with Nikola (FCEV) and the Tesla battery-based Semi, but it plans to have a longer range and lower operating costs. Its HyperTruck ERX is expected to be available in 2021. It also has a hybrid-electric truck.\nThe combination with SHLL had an estimated market cap of about $1.5 billion, with approximately $530 million going to the company, including a $325 million fully committed PIPE. At approximately $13.50 per share, its current market cap is approximately $2.2 billion, significantly down from its peak. Hyliion projects $2 billion in revenue in 2024, which it claims is only about 2% of the addressable market.\nXL Fleet (XL)\nXL Fleet is a 10-year old company that went public through the SPAC Pivotal. XL is different because it provides fleet electrification modifications for ICE trucks across a wide range of vehicle classes (class 2-5) and types. It has over 200 of the largest commercial and municipal fleets as customers, with more than 3,200 XL systems deployed and over 130 million miles driven by customers to date. XL's customer base includes FedEx, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Verizon, the City of Boston, Seattle Fire Department, Yale University, and Harvard University.\nXL's business model is essentially retrofitting existing trucks to be hybrids and then later expanding into fully electric truck conversions. It claims to be creating a fully integrated platform for this. It remains to be seen if the retrofitting business will continue to grow or will it diminish when more trucks are designed and manufactured with EV capabilities.\nUnlike some other EV companies that have no revenue yet because they are still developing products, XL is more of a small company doing low-volume retrofits. It had $7.2 million in revenue in 2019, $21 million in 2020, and estimates $76 million in 2021, but it forecasts $1.3 billion in revenue in 2024 in its investor presentation. It plans to do this by expanding its product line from hybrid to plug-in hybrid to fully electric across a broader range of trucks. It claims to have a $220 million sales pipeline for the next 12 months.\nShort-seller, Muddy Waters, claimed after talking to former XL Fleet employees, that it believed the company significantly exaggerated its order backlog, that the return on investment for the company's products was likely negative, and that it would not be able to compete with big car makers on electrification. The company thoroughly refuted these claims.\nThe original enterprise valuation was approximately $1.4 billion at a $10 share price for the merger. Its price jumped by about 35% but has since gone back down to $12.40 for a market cap of about $1.8 billion. Although XL Fleet has revenue and other EV companies don't, this may not be an advantage. It appears to be a small company for many years that has gone public at a high valuation with grand plans. The risks are in its ability to make a jump from $76 million in 2021 to $1.3 billion in 2024, as well as the question about retrofitting being replaced by new EV trucks by then.\nXos (NGAC)\nXos Trucks specializes in the field of manufacturing fully electric commercial vehicles. It features a software platform that is designed to accommodate an extensive variety of medium-duty bodies, wheelbase, and range requirements up to 200 miles. It was founded in 2016 and headquartered in North Hollywood, California. It received $20 million of investment in 2020 and now is going public through a merger with the SPAC ExtGen Acquisition Corporation (NGAC) at an estimated proforma value of $1.965 billion.\nIts focus is on medium- and heavy-duty last mile and return-to-base segments (class 5/6, class 6/7, and class 7/8) commercial fleets and specialty vehicles. Some vehicles are currently in production and in regular on-road operations with key fleet customers, and it claimed 6,000 unit orders in backlog.\nIts MD-platform is for classes 5-6 for pickup and delivery. Its HD X-Platform is an adaptable chassis for highway, vocational, and severe work conditions. Its market is for customers with highly predictable routes that allow for batteries designed for a more limited range. A significantly larger frame and smaller battery pack allow for reduced density.\nXos has a bundled all-in-one offering that allows fleets to access all the tools and services they need to go electric with a single point of contact at a fixed monthly expense.\nXos had $3 million in revenue in 2020 and estimates $14 million in 2021. However, it forecasts $5.2 billion in revenue in 2025. At the current stock price of $10.30, its market cap is approximately $2 billion, about the same as its original SPAC transaction.\nLion Electric (NGA)\nLion Electric is a Canadian company founded by Marc Bédard in 2008. Its focus is to be a leader in designing, developing, and manufacturing purpose-built urban electric vehicles; vehicles that are specifically designed as delivery trucks, refuse trucks, bucket trucks, moving trucks, school buses, and shuttle buses. It has over 300 all-electric vehicles on the road today.\nIn November 2020, it announced that it was going public through the SPAC NGA. The transaction had an estimated pro forma enterprise value of $1.5 billion.\nIt plans on seven new truck models and one new school bus, for a total of 15 all-electric vehicles, representing a full line-up from class 5 to class 8 electric trucks and a full line-up of electric school buses. Its vehicles are produced at its existing manufacturing plant, which has the capacity for the production of up to 2,500 vehicles per year. It intends to open a new plant in the U.S. capable of delivering over 20,000 Lion trucks and buses per year by 2022.\nIts all-electric class 6 and class 8 commercial urban trucks combine power, comfort, and modern technology. Custom-built chassis and cabin designed specifically for an all-electric heavy-duty vehicle. The LionC is an all-electric Type C school bus manufactured in North America. The body and chassis were specifically designed to deliver optimal performance. The LionM is an all-electric midi/minibus that meets paratransit and public transportation requirements. Created and designed specifically for the paratransit market, the is spacious and offers unique features that provide enhanced security and accessibility to the end-users.\nLion Electric had $29 million in revenue in 2020 and expects $204 million in 2021. It forecasts revenue to jump to $3.6 billion a few years later in 2024. Its current market cap is approximately $3.6 billion based on its current stock price of $18.33.\nLightning eMotors (GIK)\nLightning eMotors, formerly Lightning Systems, was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Loveland, Colorado. It provides fleet electrification for familiar commercial vehicle platforms by retrofitting them with its electric powertrains. Lightning eMotors produces electric fleet medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including delivery trucks, shuttle buses, passenger vans, ambulances, bucket trucks, chassis-cab models, and city transit buses. It focuses on urban commercial zero-emission vehicles with a full range of class 3 through class 7 battery-electric and fuel-cell electric vehicles.\nLighting eMotors helps commercial fleets achieve their sustainability goals by offering zero-emission battery-electric vans, trucks, and buses based on familiar, proven vehicles from manufacturers such as Ford and GM. It works with customers, to help them identify their unique commercial electric vehicle, charging, and grant support needs.\nThe Lightning products include integrated all-electric powertrains for the Ford Transit 350HD passenger and cargo vans, Ford E-450 shuttle bus and cutaway models, Ford F-59 step/food van, Ford F-550 cargo trucks and buses, Chevrolet 6500XD Low Cab Forward model, and 30-foot, 35-foot, and 40-foot transit buses.\nLightning has 120 vehicles on the road, and 1,500 vehicles already on order from customers. In addition to making vehicles and powertrains, Lightning also provides a full suite of charging solutions for customers.\nThe deal with GIK has an enterprise value of $650 million, although there is also an Earnout of 20.0% of total pro forma shares outstanding to Lightning eMotors shareholders if the stock crosses certain price thresholds.\nAt the current price, of $11.73, GIK has a market cap of approximately $1 billion, a little more than the original transaction valuation. Similar to XL Fleet, Lightning has the risk that retrofitting may only be an interim business opportunity until more EV trucks are produced.\nPublic Chinese EV Companies\nChina will be the biggest EV market opportunity, and EV start-ups may do better there because there isn't as much entrenched competition from domestic auto companies. China is already the largest EV market in the world, with almost a million EVs sold in 2019. Its EV market represents almost half of the global EV sales volume and is much larger than the U.S. market.\nThe Chinese government has ambitions to become a global leader in new energy vehicles. Soon after the coronavirus outbreak subsided within the country, Chinese authorities announced new policies to support the auto and electric vehicle industries.\nThese Chinese companies are traded through American depository shares (ADS) that contain certain risks. There are financial reporting and transparency risks with these companies, and on top of that, the newer companies are being classified as \"emerging growth\" companies that are already exempt from certain transparency requirements set out in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Like the previous EV stock, these stocks have also been very volatile.\nIn addition to legacy auto manufacturers like BYD, there are also three Chinese EV companies that are publicly traded through American depositary shares.\nBYD Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:BYDDY)\nBYD, which means build your dreams, is the automotive subsidiary of the Chinese multinational BYD Co Ltd. It was founded in January 2003, following BYD Company's acquisition of Tsinchuan Automobile Company. The company produces automobiles, buses, electric bicycles, forklifts, rechargeable batteries, and trucks. The current model range of automobiles includes electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and petrol-engined vehicles. Thirteen years ago, on the advice of his famously skeptical lieutenant, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett made a $232 million investment in BYD, a relatively unknown Chinese car company.\nBy parlaying BYD's rechargeable battery technology into a fast-growing carmaking operation, it gained a foothold in the fledgling electric vehicle market, building longer-lasting batteries and cheaper vehicles than American and Japanese manufacturers were managing to do at the time. In BYD, Buffett and Munger believed they had found a company with a shot at one day becoming the largest player in a global automobile market that was inevitably going electric.\nBYD's start to 2021 was strong with 19,871 plug-in electric cars sold in January in China, including hybrid plug-ins. That was a big increase over 2020 but not as much as 2019.\nLI Auto (LI)\nLixiang, formerly known as Chehejia (\"Car and Home\"), was founded in 2015 and went public in the U.S. on July 30th, 2020. It is a Beijing-based electric-vehicle startup with vertically integrated manufacturing. It designs, researches, manufactures, sells, and offers services featuring a few models of electric vehicles.\nThe company's SUVs are hybrids of a sort. They use electric motors (one on the front axle and one on the rear), but those motors are powered by a combination of a 40.5kWh battery packanda 1.2-liter turbocharged engine paired to a 45-liter fuel tank and a 100kW electric generator, which generates power for the battery pack in real-time. The idea is that the car can be driven for about 100 miles on battery power alone, but it has a total range of nearly 500 miles when leveraging the combustion engine generator.\nThe Company's primary product is an SUV under its brand Li ONE. It also sells peripheral products and provides related services, such as charging stalls, vehicle internet connection services, and extended lifetime warranties. Li Auto is looking to sell a variety of SUVs built on its hybrid technology that range from around $21,000 to about $70,000. The company started shipping its first model in late 2019. It's a midsize SUV is well-appointed and has lots of touchscreens and technology. A full-size premium version is planned for release in 2022.\nDeliveries of Li ONEs were 14,464 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a 67.0% quarter-over-quarter increase and setting a new quarterly record. Deliveries for the full year 2020 reached 32,624 vehicles. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $635 million.\nLI auto went public on July 30th, 2020, raising $1.1 billion at an initial price of $15.50 per share but quickly reached almost $24. It is currently valued at approximately $37 billion at a price of approximately $25.72 per share.\nXPeng (XPEV)\nXiaopeng (XPeng) Motors is a Chinese electric vehicle and technology company that designs and manufactures smart cars. It was founded in 2015 and went public on August 27, 2020, using American depository shares, raising about $1 billion. To date, it has raised about $2.6 billion.\nXPeng aims its EVs at technology-savvy middle-class Chinese consumers, with prices ranging from $22,000 to $45,000 after government subsidies. In some ways, it is a Tesla knock-off at a much lower price. XPeng started production of the G3 in November 2018, and as of July 31, 2020, delivered 18,741. It started production of the P7 and began delivery in May 2020, and as of July 31, 2020, it had delivered 1,966 EVs. The P7 has a range of more than 400 miles. It plans to launch a third Smart EV, a sedan, in 2021. The G3 was among the top-three best-selling electric SUVs in China in 2019.\nXPeng is interesting because it has a platform strategy and is moving aggressively into autonomous driving. It uses a platform strategy to expand product offerings by launching one Smart EV model each year to broaden the addressable market. It builds new models on two highly flexible Smart EV platforms, called David and Edward, respectively. The David platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,600 millimeters to 2,800 millimeters, and the Edward platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,800 millimeters to 3,100 millimeters. It also adopted a platform approach for software systems.\nXPeng claims to be developing an autonomous driving capability for its EVs. The P7 is the first production vehicle to feature the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Xavier system-on-a-chip (SoC) autonomous driving platform. The company's Smart Electric Platform Architecture (SEPA) runs on 2 chips - NVIDIA for the XPILOT and Qualcomm's Snapdragon™ 820A for intelligent services and infotainment, including cameras inside and outside, radars, HD-map, and ultrasonic sensors. Like Tesla, it claims it can create sufficiently-autonomous driving without lidar.\nTo enhance brand recognition and allow more people to experience its Smart EVs, it deployed a small number of Smart EVs in a ride-hailing service in Guangzhou on a trial basis, but it has no current plan to scale up a ride-hailing service.\nXpeng sees first-quarter 2021 deliveries rising 450% year-over-year to 12,500 vehicles. Revenues are expected to increase 533% from a year ago. The company didn't provide bottom-line estimates for the quarter, but will likely post another net loss as it ramps up manufacturing, invests in R&amp;D, and builds out a new manufacturing plant set to open in 2022.\nXpeng reported selling 12,964 vehicles in Q4 2020, up 303% from a year ago. It delivered a total of 27,041 vehicles in 2020, up 112%. It makes the P7 sedan, a rival to the made-in-China Tesla Model 3, and the small G3 SUV.\nThe stock opened on August 27, 2020 at a price of $15 and a valuation of $11 billion, but its stock jumped more than 40% shortly after. Its current valuation is about $35 billion at a stock price of approximately $36.13 per share. It had about $300 million in revenue in 2019 with a loss of about $500 million.\nNio (NIO)\nUnlike previous companies, Nio has been a public company for some time. It originally went public in the U.S. back in September of 2018, selling IPO shares at $6.26 and raising $1 billion.\nNio's IPO was far from smooth. After going public at $6.26 per share, it traded down to nearly $1. Then in the middle of the coronavirus outbreak, Nio received a much-needed investment of $1 billion from investors, including state-backed entities.\nNio designs, jointly manufactures, and sells smart and connected premium electric vehicles, attempting to develop next-generation technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving, and artificial intelligence. Joint manufacturing means that it uses a state-owned contract manufacturer to build its cars.\nNio plans to provide customers with comprehensive, convenient, and innovative charging solutions and other user-centric services. It began deliveries of the ES8, a 7-seater high-performance premium electric SUV in China in June 2018, and its variant, the six-seater ES8, in March 2019. Nio officially launched the ES6, a 5-seater high-performance premium electric SUV, in December 2018 and began deliveries in June 2019. It officially launched the EC6, a 5-seater smart premium electric Coupe SUV, in December 2019 with deliveries in 2020.\nNio sold 17,353 EVs in Q4/2020 and 43,728 for the year. It warned a shortage in chips and batteries will force a production slowdown to 7,500 a month in Q2 from 10,000 vehicles a month in February.\nNio currently trades at more than $43 per share, including a big jump recently, for a valuation of approximately $48 billion. It had revenue of $2.3 billion in 2019 for a loss of $3.8 billion.\nSummary\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this should provide exciting new investment opportunities. However, the investment terrain is complex. There are dozens of new start-ups where the public can now invest that were previously exclusively venture capital investment opportunities. Many of these are following different roads to success. There are legacy auto manufacturers that could prosper or get destroyed in this transition. There are some exciting new EV company opportunities in China. And then there is Tesla.\nThis EV roadmap is intended to help investors explore different roads to investment by explaining the basic strategies for these EV companies. These roads can have different opportunities and risks, and the roadmap helps to frame these. Above all, valuation is an overriding risk that is highlighted throughout this article.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>New Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNew Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-19 14:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.\nLast October, I wrote a popular article providing...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车","01211":"比亚迪股份","NKLA":"Nikola Corporation","LI":"理想汽车","GP":"GreenPower Motor Company Inc.","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","GOEV":"Canoo Inc.","WKHS":"Workhorse Group, Inc.","F":"福特汽车","002594":"比亚迪","TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来","FSR":"菲斯克","HYLN":"Hyliion Holdings Corp."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1196402560","content_text":"Summary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.\nLast October, I wrote a popular article providing a roadmap for investing in electric vehicles, but since then, so much has changed: new entrants, new strategies, fluctuating valuations, etc.\nSo, I updated and greatly expanded the previous EV investment roadmap.\nThis update includes a deeper look at valuations for 23 EV companies with revenue projections, when available.\nIt also classifies these EV companies into their primary market categories and summarizes their different strategies.\n\nPhoto by Sven Loeffler/iStock via Getty Images\nMy article Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap published five months ago, was popular, and some followers have requested an update. Many new EV companies entered the market, most of them through SPACs. Valuations fluctuated wildly, and there has been a great deal of publicity around these companies.\nThis new updated EV investment roadmap is greatly expanded. In addition to updating the strategies and progress of companies previously discussed, I expanded the number of companies covered. This article also groups EV companies into their primary markets, enabling better comparisons and evaluation of market opportunities. In addition, it includes a comparative valuation chart showing every company's market cap with a comparison to projected revenue, where possible. This takes advantage (good or bad) of looking at the long-term revenue forecasts provided in SPAC mergers that public companies can't make.\nIn addition to the EV manufacturers discussed here, there are also EV investment opportunities in charging station companies, battery manufacturers, and battery materials companies. These were covered in the original roadmap and may also be updated in a later article.\nApproximately 2 million EVs were sold in 2019, and although the number declined along with all auto sales in 2020, it is forecasted to increase in 2021 and reach 8-10 million by 2025. Some forecast that EV sales will be greater than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2030, or even earlier. The automobile market appears to be moving toward a historical transformation, and exceptional investment gains can be made by anticipating new emerging industries and investing in the eventual winners of those new industries. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)are obvious examples. Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to create a new emerging industry.\nThere are also significant risks. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to be released in the next three years, which will drive rapid growth in EV sales. However, the expected sales from these new models, as well as the increasing expectations from Tesla, most likely exceed the total projected market. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the companies covered here won't exist five years from now. It reminds me of the internet bubble of the late 1990s when scores of internet-based companies went public with little or no revenue. Almost all of these failed within three years -- however, a couple, including Amazon, went on to enormous success.\nEVs provide a major new investment opportunity with high risks. To succeed, you need to have a clear EV investment roadmap.\nSo, how can you invest in this new emerging market? The EV landscape is complex and investment opportunities are varied. While Tesla is the unquestioned leader in EVs, some consider it overvalued and unlikely to show exceptional returns to new investors. The current U.S. legacy automakers are committed to introducing many new EVs in the next few years, and they have some entrenched advantages with volume manufacturing capabilities, a dealer infrastructure, and loyal customers. There are exciting new EV start-ups in the U.S. that have come public this year, mostly through Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), and there are several interesting publicly traded Chinese EV manufacturers.\nThis new roadmap for EV investment classifies companies into three primary markets segments:\n\nTheConsumer Retailsegment includes EVs sold to consumers individually, such as SUVs, pickup trucks, sedans, etc.\nTheCommercial Deliverysegment includes local delivery EV vans and trucks sold to fleets.\nTheMedium- and Long-Haul Truckingsegment includes heavier Class 4 - Class 8 trucks, as well as special industrial vehicles.\n\nIn addition, it categorizesLegacy ManufacturersandChinese EV Companies. This enables investors to evaluate investment opportunities by considering unique opportunities within each market segment.\nThere is an enormous amount of investment optimism for EVs, and retail investors have been aggressively buying into EV stocks with seemingly no regard for valuation. Then there is the additional challenge of valuing companies with no revenue, especially those coming public through SPACs. So, valuation is an important investment consideration.\nSo let's start by looking at an overview of comparative EV valuations.\nEV Investment Valuation Overview\nThe following chart summarizes valuations for 23 EV companies, including several legacy companies. For SPACs, market cap estimates are computed using the pro forma number of shares at closing, otherwise using the valuation of the SPAC prior to closing drastically underestimates the valuation, which may be misleading to novice investors. Price/Sales ratios (market cap divided by revenue) are used to compare valuations. As a benchmark, current P/S ratios vary. For example, auto and truck companies have a ratio of 2.7X. Software companies have the highest ratios of over 10X.\nIn the chart, companies that currently have revenue show current P/S ratios. Where projections are available, projected P/S ratios are computed. A note of caution, however. Many of the EV companies came public through SPACs and published their projections (which public companies cannot do), and many of these are likely to prove unrealistic.\nAll of the longer-term revenue projections come from the company (C) forecasts with a SPAC. Some of these may turn out to be accurate, not many are most likely unrealistic. Some, like Lucid, Faraday, and Arrival forecast hitting more than $10 billion in revenue in a few years, when it took Tesla more than 10. Things are different now and they might achieve these, but they could also find that it will take longer to complete development, ramp up production, and create enough customer demand. Many companies may also find that there will be significant capital requirements to achieve this type of growth, and shareholders will be diluted.\n\nTesla, the \"gold standard\" in EVs, has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, which many people believe is overvalued. Its market cap is approximately 20X 2020 revenue and 10X estimated 2022 revenue.\nTesla (TSLA)\nIn the U.S., and to a lesser extent in China, Tesla is the dominant EV provider. It has approximately 60% of the U.S. EV market and about 20% of the market in China. I own a Tesla and love it, but an investment in Tesla stock requires getting comfortable with its valuation. Tesla has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, although declining lately, which some consider still overvalued while others see upside potential.\nThe investment opportunity with Tesla is based on the expectation that it will continue to dominate the EV market, or at least maintain significant market share, despite much greater competition from the expected introduction of hundreds of new EV models in the next few years.\nThere is a great deal already published about Tesla, so I'll move on.\nLegacy Automakers\nSome people think that the legacy automakers will simply fade away. Historically, that was the case in some other industries, but it is not going to happen to most automakers. They are not standing still waiting to become obsolete. Most have aggressive strategies to replace ICE vehicles with EVs. GM plans to invest $27 billion and build and launch as many as 30 new EV models by 2025. Ford plans to invest $29 billion in EVs by 2025 and launch as many as 16 EVs in the next two years. Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY)has also committed billions to develop new EVs.\nThe competitive advantage that legacy automakers have in selling their new EVs is their dealer network. Will new EV customers prefer to continue going to their regular auto dealer to buy their new EV?\nAlmost all legacy automakers worldwide are developing and launching EVs including Volkswagen, Peugeot, Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi, Hyundai/Kia. Let's look a little more closely at GM and Ford as the leaders in the U.S.\nGeneral Motors (GM)\nGM has committed to introducing 20 new electric vehicles by 2023, including EVs across Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC, and Buick. It recently announced that it has already sold out the first-year production of its Hummer electric pickup. By mid-decade, it expects to sell a million EVs per year in its two largest markets: North America and China. As a reference point, Tesla reported deliveries of 367,500 vehicles globally in 2019.\nGM has a solid platform strategy for its EVs. It plans on building its EVs using five interchangeable drive units and three different motors from its Ultium Drive System platform. Ultium energy options range from 50 to 200 kWh, which could enable an estimated range of up to 400 miles. Most of its EVs will have 400-volt battery packs and up to 200 kW fast-charging capability while the truck platform will have 800-volt battery packs and 350 kW fast-charging capabilities.\nThe key building blocks of the Ultium battery system are large-scale, high-energy cells. Engineered in partnership with LG Energy Solutions, they use both advanced chemistry and a smart cell design that's optimized for a broad portfolio of EVs. GM engineers and scientists are actively researching and testing new elements in battery chemistry to lower costs and improve charge times. Ultium can contain either vertically- or horizontally-stacked cells to integrate into vehicle design: vertically for trucks, SUVs, and crossovers, or horizontally for cars and performance vehicles. As new chemistry is developed and becomes available, the battery management system could digitally update the modules.\nGM also has other EV opportunities with its BrightDrop commercial EV service and its Cruise subsidiary. BrightDrop will not just sell delivery EVs, it will provide an entire service platform for commercial delivery customers. Its set of electric delivery vehicles starts with the EV600 and includes the BrightDrop EP1, a pod-like electric pallet. SeeGeneral Motors' Aggressive EV/AV Strategies May Payoff Big.\nWith its highest stock price of $61.65, GM's current market cap is approximately $89 billion, increasing primarily because of its progress with EVs. This approximately 3X valuation in 2018, but still only 13% of Tesla.\nFord (F)\nFord is also investing heavily in EVs. It just introduced the Mustang Mach-E, a battery-powered crossover with sports car styling, and plans to introduce an all-electric version of its best-selling F-150 pickup later this year. Also, planned is an electric edition of the full-size Transit van, which has been popular in the commercial delivery market. Ford has confirmed plans to build a luxury Lincoln crossover on a battery-powered platform provided by Rivian. The automaker also plans to introduce two new midsize electric crossovers, one each for the Ford and Lincoln brands by 2023.\nMustang Mach-E. Source: Ford\nFord's market cap is approximately $51 billion, twice its previous market cap, and also increasing.\nConsumer Retail EV Companies\nThe consumer retail market has some unique characteristics for new EV companies. Sales are made individually, not in fleets. This diversifies the risk upon launch because only a sufficient number of customers need to be attracted to the new EV. A wave of popularity can provide terrific momentum.\nHowever, the lack of a dealer network can be an impediment. Selling EVs directly to consumers instead of through dealers is prohibited in most states. By law, auto manufacturers can't compete with franchised dealers. These are laws that go back many decades to protect dealers. This can be a major impediment for new companies without established independent dealer franchises. So, new AV companies. like Tesla, need to sell their vehicles online. Tesla has successfully done this, but it took a lot of work and time. Lack of a dealer network also creates impediments in service.\nIn addition, over the next 4-5 years, autonomous capabilities will be increasingly important to luxury vehicles. This may prove to be a challenge to start-up EV companies because they can't afford to develop this technology.\nLet's look closer at the alternative consumer retail EV investments.\nLucid Motors (CCIV)\nLucid was founded in 2007 under the name Atieva and originally focused on building electric vehicle batteries and powertrains for other vehicle manufacturers. The company rebranded itself as Lucid Motors in October 2016 and shifted its strategy to develop an all-electric, high-performance, luxury vehicle. Shortly after that, it encountered financial difficulties and struggled to get short-term funding. In 2018 it raised more than $1 billion in investment, primarily from Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund, and gave up a majority of the company.\nLucid Motors reached an agreement to become a publicly-traded company through a merger with the SPAC Churchill Capital IV Corp., in one of the largest deals SPAC EV deals. The combined company, in which Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund will continue to be the largest shareholder, had a transaction equity value of $11.75 billion (for $10/share). At the same time, it closed a PIPE investment priced at $15 a share, giving it an implied pro forma equity value of $24 billion. Rumors about this deal circulated before the transaction was formally announced, making it one of the most anticipated SPAC deals. The hype and speculation drove up the stock price of Churchill Capital IV Corp. from its opening price of $10 a share to almost $60. I believe that some of this may have been driven by novice SPAC investors who didn't realize that the valuation of CCIV didn't include the eventual valuation of Lucid. The share price dropped more than 30% after the details of the deal were announced. It's also likely that Lucid renegotiated the terms of the merger based on the price jump.\nThe company's first product is the Lucid Air, a well-equipped luxury electric vehicle that features 406 miles of projected range and 480 horsepower with a starting price of $77,400, or $69,900 after the U.S. Federal Tax Credit of $7,500. This new Lucid Air model is positioned as a high-performance, ultra-efficient luxury EV sedan in a line of future vehicles that are expected to include Lucid Air Touring, Grand Touring, and Dream Edition versions.\nThe company plans to begin production and deliveries of the Lucid Air in North America in the second half of 2021. Previously the company aimed to begin deliveries earlier in 2021. It intends to sell the car in Europe in 2022, followed by China in 2023. Lucid vehicles will be produced at its new factory in Casa Grande, Arizona. The company plans to expand the factory in phases in the coming years to have the capacity to produce 365,000 units per year at scale. The initial phase of the $700 million factory construction was completed late last year and will have the capacity to produce 30,000 vehicles a year.\nLucid also apparently has a commitment to build an assembly plant in Saudi Arabia, which was rumored to be a condition of the $1 billion investment from the Saudi public fund. The Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund also provided $600 million in bridge financing and invested in the SPAC deal as well. So, while this assembly plant may be expensive and may not be critical, it will most likely need to happen.\nLucid has ambitious plans to achieve $14 billion in revenue in 2025, and its current stock price at $29.17, which gives it a market cap of more than $46 billion, may already reflect those ambitions. Its market cap is roughly the same as Ford.\nFisker (FSR)\nFisker, which had its origins with Fisker Automotive, is an interesting story that ended in bankruptcy. Henrik Fisker originally co-founded Fisker Automotive in 2007. He was responsible for designing many premium cars such as the Aston Martin. Subsequently, Fisker Automotive had to deal with a Tesla lawsuit against Fisker Automotive alleging it stole Tesla's technology, a controversial $528.7 million conditional loan from the Department of Energy, a recall of its battery produced by A123, and the loss of several hundred vehicles in hurricane Sandy. Henrik Fisker resigned in March 2013 because of disagreements over business strategy and in November 2013, Fisker filed its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case.\nHowever, Henrik Fisker retained the Fisker brand and trademarks, and in 2016 he started another electric vehicle company named Fisker Inc. with the Fisker brand and trademarks. In 2019, Fisker shifted from developing a sports car with a solid-state battery to the Ocean SUV featuring a lithium-ion battery, which it later abandoned for a solid-state battery.\nFisker is positioning itself in a unique segment for those who want the most environmentally friendly EV. While this may be an early growth segment for EVs, it's difficult to estimate its eventual competitive advantage and the size of this environmentally-friendly market segment.\nThe Ocean is a crossover made of recycled metal and plastic with an expected base price of $37,499, and an expected lease of less than $400 a month. Fisker's plan is essentially a lease-only business model that lets customers keep a vehicle for years or return it at any time. It aims to source motors, batteries, and other components from technical partnerships with automakers and will outsource production from existing auto plants. Fisker is currently taking reservations at $250 for the Ocean. It also announced an agreement with Foxconn to jointly develop a vehicle pioneering a new market segment to be sold globally under the Fisker brand commencing in Q4 2023. at the end of 2022. Production will start at Magna Steyr's manufacturing facilities in Europe. At the end of February 2021, it had 12,467 cancellable reservations.\nFisker Ocean. Source: Fisker\nFisker went public using a SPAC (Spartan Energy). The original combination with SPAQ in October 2020 was valued at $2.9 billion with a cash investment of approximately $1 billion. The stock currently trades at approximately $21 per share, after reaching a high of $28.50, from the original price of $10, which is a market cap of $4.6 billion. Fisker projects $3.3 billion in revenue in 2023. It had almost $1 billion in cash at the end of 2020 and expected to use almost half of this in 2021: $250 million on operating expenses and $250 million in capital investments. If the Ocean is delayed into 2023, Fisker risks missing its revenue objective and will potentially need additional cash to complete development and launch.\nFaraday Future (PSAC)\nFaraday Future was originally established in May 2014 by Chinese businessman Jia Yueting. It is headquartered in Los Angeles and has offices in Silicon Valley, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu. Faraday Future also had a turbulent history. In 2016, it struggled financially, and in 2017 some key executives departed over a dispute about financial issues. They later founded Canoo.\nIn December 2018 the company announced layoffs due to a cash crunch and financial troubles. The company's founder Jia Yueting filed for personal bankruptcy in the United States' federal court in Delaware on October 14, 2019. Following Jia's personal bankruptcy, he decided to step down from his role as CEO of Faraday Future in order to assume a new position as the Chief Product and User Officer. He was replaced as CEO by Carsten Breitfeld, the former CEO at rival electric vehicle startup Byton.\nSomehow, Faraday was able to raise $2.3 billion in private funding over 5 rounds from a variety of investors. In early 2018, it received $1.5 billion in funding from an undisclosed investor from Hong Kong.\nFaraday's flagship product offering will be the FF 91, featuring 1,050 HP, 0-60 mph in less than 2.4 seconds, zero gravity seats with the largest 60-degree reclining angles, and a user experience designed to create a mobile, connected, and luxurious living space. The FF 91 is targeted to launch in 2022.\nFF 91. Source: Faraday Future\nIts strategic partners include one of China's top three OEMs and a critical Chinese city, which the company believes will help establish its presence in the Chinese vehicle market.\nFaraday Future plans several cars based on its Variable Platform Architecture. FF 91 is the first production vehicle and flagship model. Pricing will range between $120,000 and upwards of $200,000, which places it against formidable opponents. Faraday Future is already looking forward to expanding its range with a pair of smaller models named FF 81 and FF 71. The FF 81 is planned to be priced at $75,000 to 95,000 with a 2023 release. The FF 71 is planned to be priced at $45,000 to $65,000 with a planned release of 2024.\nThe Primary Manufacturing Facility for FF 91 is in Hanford, CA with contract manufacturing for future models in Gunsan, South Korea.\nFaraday Future is planning high-Level automation with a Level-3 capable system using a redundant safety architecture based on NVIDIA Xavier System-on-a-chip. It will be capable of highway auto-drive and hardware ready for advanced auto-drive. It is targeting full autonomous valet parking & summon in any parking lot or structure. Eventually, it expects full auto-drive, including full 360˚ sensor coverage for advanced auto-drive & auto-park features.\nIn January 2021, Faraday Future announced that the company would go public through a reverse merger with the special purpose acquisition company Property Solutions Acquisition Corp. (PSAC). The combined company will be valued at $3.4 billion. Faraday Future is expected to set up contract manufacturing operations in China through their partnership with Geely. Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn is also expected to serve as an additional strategic partner.\nFaraday Future projects $10.5 billion in revenue in 2024 and $21.5 billion in 2025. Revenue is expected to start in 2022 with the delivery of 2,400 vehicles for $504 million. Most likely these projections could prove to be optimistic. At a current stock price of approximately $12.80, it has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nLordstown Motors (RIDE)\nLordstown Motors based in Lordstown, Ohio, was originally founded in 2018 by Steve Burns, the former CEO of Workhorse Group. The company licensed technology from Workhorse in return for royalties and a 10% ownership. Lordstown is named after the famous GM Lordstown manufacturing plant, which it acquired in November 2019 in an unusual transaction. GM announced that it was closing the plant and was under a great deal of pressure for that decision. So, GM \"sold\" the plant to a company that was renamed Lordstown for an estimated $20 million that it loaned to the acquiring company. Subsequently, the sale was redefined to be part of a $75 million investment by GM, of which $50 million was an in-kind exchange for the plant.\nLordstown went public through the SPAC DiamondPeak Holdings Corp. in 2020. It currently has more than 400 employees.\nIts first product is the Lordstown Endurance, a full-sized EV pickup truck. Lordstown is positioning Endurance for the pickup fleet market segment. The expected price is $52,000+, and it claimed to have more than 100,000 pre-orders by January 2021. However, a recent research article published by a short seller claimed \"Our research has revealed that Lordstown's order book consists of fake or entirely non-binding orders, from customers that generally do not even have fleets of vehicles.\" Lordstown is disputing that article.\nIt believes the fleet pickup market segment is underserved with no current EV-focused competition. It estimates that the full-sized pick-up truck fleet market is 1.2 million vehicles per year in the U.S., but it's more fragmented than other truck fleets. Pickup \"fleets\" tend to be much smaller and local, so there may not be much of a market distinction for a small company buying several EV pickups from a traditional auto dealer. About half of the total U.S. pickup market is classified as fleet sales, meaning more than one.\nEven though Lordstown is targeting the commercial fleet market, it is a similar product to the Ford EV F-150. So I classify it in the consumer EV category. It is a class 2 vehicle. Lordstown also may enter the SUV market in the longer-term.\nThe Endurance will compete against future models from Rivian and Tesla, as well as Ford and GM in ICE pick-ups and their upcoming EV pick-ups. Ford plans on selling its EV F-150 in mid-2022. Initial production of the Endurance is expected in the second half of 2021, so it may have a short market advantage. Nevertheless, it forecasts selling 65,000 vehicles in 2023 and 107,000 in 2024. These estimates could be a large percentage of the EV pick-up market in those years.\nAt the SPAC merger, the implied valuation for Lordstown was $1.6 billion, including a $500 million PIPE and the $75 million by GM. Lordstown's financial projections appear to be aggressive. It projects to start shipping the Endurance in late 2021 with projected revenue in 2022 of $1.7 billion, increasing to $5.8 billion in 2024. Its stock price at approximately $13.60 values the company at a market cap of approximately $2.2 billion. The value of the company depends on the likelihood of achieving its projections.\nA fleet sales strategy makes sense for Lordstown since it would be too expensive to build a retail sales and service capability. However, it's not clear that this will become a distinct competitive advantage. Some small fleets may still prefer to buy their EV pickups from established local dealers with service capabilities.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nCanoo started as Evelozcity in 2017 and rebranded as Canoo in the spring of 2019. Canoo is a Los Angeles-based company that develops electric vehicles. It has over 350 employees. Canoo has designed a modular electric platform purpose-built to deliver maximum vehicle interior space, which is adaptable to support a wide range of vehicle applications for consumers and businesses. Canoo expects to launch its first consumer model in 2022, simply named the Canoo that will be available by subscription, followed shortly after by a multi-purpose delivery vehicle and a sports vehicle, each built off of the same underlying platform. Canoo went public using a SPAC (Hennessy Capital Acquisition) and now trades as GOEV.\nCanoo's all-electric skateboard-like platform is designed to support both consumer retail and commercial vehicle configurations. The EV leverages Canoo's flat skateboard architecture for a high level of usable interior space. Its commercial vehicle program, expected in 2023, addresses a projected $50B+ last-mile delivery market with an EV platform that maximizes cargo volume.\nHyundai Motor Group said it would jointly develop an electric vehicle platform with the company.\nCanoo's platform strategy is interesting. It could be used as an EV platform for custom fleets of delivery vehicles. It has no AV development, but it claims to be \"AV Ready\" which could be useful for AV companies wanting to build custom AV delivery fleets.\nIts all-electric multi-purpose delivery vehicle is expected to be priced starting at approximately $33,000. It is based on Canoo's proprietary electric platform and will be offered in two initial size variants, with others to follow. Limited availability will begin in 2022, with scaled production and launch planned for 2023. Customers can pre-order the multi-purpose delivery vehicle for a refundable deposit of $100 per vehicle\nIt plans to offer two multi-purpose delivery vehicles: the MPDV1 and the larger MPDV2. The first has a 200-foot cargo volume and a range of 130-200 miles. It offers more capacity than today's ICE delivery vehicles at an affordable price with urban mobility enabled by a space-efficient footprint. The vehicle is also designed to fit within many height-restricted areas like parking garages.\nThe MPDV2 has a cargo volume of 450 feet and a range of 90-190 miles. Its roof and step-in height enable individuals to easily walk-in the vehicle and accommodate a standing position while inside.\nThe original SPAC transaction provided approximately $600 million, with a pro forma equity value of approximately $2.4 billion. Like other SPAC mergers, its stock price has fluctuated. It currently trades at about $15.90 per share for a market cap of approximately $3.7 billion. Canoo projects $2.0 billion in revenue in 2025 from about $500 million in engineering services, $1.2 billion from its consumer vehicle subscriptions, and the remainder from its commercial program. Canoo expects revenue of more than $300 million in 2022 after the launch of its lifestyle consumer vehicle.\nSince its first products are aimed at consumers, as is most of its forecasted 2025 revenue, I categorize it primarily as a consumer EV company. However, I think the design of that Canoo vehicle may not attract enough customers. More importantly, its subscription service way of selling its EV to consumers is risky. I think it has more potential in the commercial market, however, a dual strategy (consumer and commercial) is challenging. I like its skateboard platform design and that could prove to be a competitive advantage.\nRivian\nAlthough not yet public, I include Rivian because it has plans for an IPO as soon as Sept 2021, although it could slip into 2022. There are rumors that the company is targeting a market valuation of approximately $50B. Rivian has already raised more than $8 billion to date from Amazon, Ford, T. Rowe Price, and others.\nRivian has developed and vertically integrated a connected electric platform that can be flexibly applied to a range of applications, including the company's adventure products, as well as B2B products such as the Amazon last-mile delivery vans. The company's initial products, the R1T and R1S, provide a combination of performance, off-road capability, and utility. These vehicles will be produced at Rivian's manufacturing plant in Normal, Ill., with customer deliveries expected to begin in summer 2021. The launch of the R1S three-row electric SUV will follow in August.\nAdditional lower-priced models are being planned. The expected R2 series would include at least two smaller electric vehicles to coincide with the smaller platform, then another platform for R3.\nCommercial Delivery EV Companies\nEV truck companies differ based on the type of truck they are developing. The technology and markets are very different, so I separate them into two categories. The first category includes commercial delivery vehicles.\nCompanies making EV delivery vehicles have some major advantages that could make them good investments. First, delivery vehicles typically travel less than 250 miles during a day, so they can be conveniently recharged overnight. Secondly, they are typically sold in large quantities to fleets. This means that building a retail sales infrastructure is not necessary. It only requires a small salesforce. In addition, maintenance can also be provided at the fleet's operational center, so not as many service centers are required.\nThe disadvantage in this market is that there are a relatively small number of customers that buy in large volumes, so if the EV manufacturer can't get enough large customers, they may not be able to stay in business. GM estimates the combined market opportunity for parcel and food delivery, as well as reverse logistics, in the U.S. will be more than $850 billion by 2025.\nThe commercial market is expected to be a major growth area for EVs. Other start-up automakers like Rivian as well as legacy automakers such as Ford, Daimler, and GM have announced plans to enter the segment. GM recently announced its BrightDrop ecosystem for commercial customers that includes an all-new electric delivery van, the EV600 available by the end of 2021, as well as an integrated autonomous pallet and related services.\nThis group of EV companies focuses primarily on commercial delivery. In general, these are in the light-duty trucks category, although it also includes some medium-duty trucks. This generally includes the following commercial truck classes:\n\nClass 1: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 0-6,000 pounds or 0-2,722 kilograms.\nClass 2: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 6,001-10,000 pounds or 2,722-4,536 kilograms.1\nClass 3: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 10,001-14,000 pounds or 4,536-6,350 kilograms.\n\nIt can also include somewhat larger medium-duty EV delivery trucks:\n\nClass 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.\nClass 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.\n\nEV delivery trucks also have an advantage over ICE vehicles because they can have a greater delivery storage space. Smaller buses and transit vehicles are also included in this category.\nLast-mile package delivery is not an immediate-term autonomous vehicle opportunity because it requires a delivery person to be on the truck anyway.\nWorkhorse Group (WKHS)\nWorkhorse has been a public company for ten years. Originally AMP Electric Vehicles, it was established in 2007 as a developmental-stage vehicle electrification company, focusing on conversions. AMP Electric Vehicles went public in 2010 trading on the OTC market under the AMPD symbol. When the economic benefits of conversion became less certain, it pivoted away from passenger vehicles and began to focus on electrifying commercial vehicles. AMP acquired the Workhorse brand and the Workhorse custom chassis assembly plant in Union City. In March of 2013, AMP formally changed its name to Workhorse Group Incorporated.\nThe Company designs and builds a last-mile delivery electric vehicle. The C-Series EVs cover the larger size of commercial delivery vehicles in Classes 3-5. As part of its solutions, it also develops cloud-based, real-time telematics performance monitoring systems. It sells its vehicles to fleet customers directly and through its primary distributor, Ryder Systems. It is currently focused on bringing the C-Series electric delivery truck to market and fulfilling the existing backlog of orders.\nThe C-Series looks like a viable EV replacement for the 350,000 last-mile delivery vehicles sold in the U.S. annually. It recently announced an increased driving range from 100 miles to 160, which should open more market opportunities. It has a viable short-term go-to-market strategy selling fleets to delivery companies. It currently has test vehicles with UPS, DHL, FedEx, Amazon, and Walmart.\nWorkhorse recently lost out on the United States Postal Services Next Generation Delivery Vehicle project, however, it is in the process of challenging this decision. Additionally, its investment in Lordstown also provides an indirect investment opportunity. On November 7, 2019, the Company entered a transaction with Lordstown Motors to grant LMC a perpetual and worldwide license to certain intellectual property relating to its W-15 electric pickup truck platform and related technology in exchange for royalties, equity interest (approximately 10%) in LMC, and other considerations. This was a $320 million asset for Workhorse at the end of 2020.\nWorkhorse received a significant increase in orders in Q4/2020 but built just seven trucks in the fourth quarter due to production systems and supply chain issues. Workhorse plans to continue to take it slow, striving to build three of its composite-body battery-electric trucks a day in March with a plan to reach 10 trucks a day by the end of June. This makes its original 2021 goal of producing 1,800 trucks unlikely. It partnered with Hitachi and Hitachi Capital America (\"HCA\") to improve the Company's manufacturing, operational, and supply chain capabilities as well as to develop a national dealer network to support Workhorse's sales with vehicle financing options for both dealers and customers.\nWorkhorse has a market cap of approximately $1.9 billion. While Workhorse had ongoing revenue, unlike many other new EV companies, its revenue is still insignificant. It had a revenue of $1.4 million in 2020 and $377,000 in 2019. It has a backlog of over 8,000 vehicles but doesn't expect to be able to build many of those in 2021. It raised $270 million in capital over several financings, providing the Company with additional capital to build its backlog. It had cash of $215 million as of March 1, 2021. Because Workhorse is a traditional public company, it hasn't made long-term financial projections like SPAC-based companies.\nElectric Last Mile (FIII)\nElectric Last Mile, based in Troy Michigan, was founded by Jason Luo, former CEO of Ford China before it was acquired by China's Ningbo Joyson Electronic for $920 million in 2016, including James Taylor, former CEO of GM's Hummer brand and former CEO of electric car maker Karma Automotive. Taylor serves as the company's top executive with Luo as the company's chairman.\nThe company plans to launch a small electric delivery van (class 1-2), called the UD-1, in the third quarter of 2021, and then introduce an Urban Utility vehicle (Class 2-3) in 2022. These are expected to compete with Workhorse, Rivian, Canoo, as well as the Ford eTransit and the GMC BV1, none of which is expected to be a Class 1 vehicle.\nThe company says it has 30,000 preorders for its van, representing more than $1 billion in sales. Electric Last Miles vehicles will be based on Sokon's commercial van made in China through a joint venture with Dongfeng Automobile Co Ltd. in order to accelerate development time.\nElectric Last Mile (ELM) is expected to manufacture the vans in a former General Motors Co. Hummer plant in Mishawaka, Ind., that the company is acquiring from China's Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co. Ltd. The plant has the capacity to produce 100,000 vehicles annually with plans to build approximately 4,000 UD-1 vans by the end of 2021. The UD-1 has a starting price of $32,500 and a range of 150 miles. The battery for the vehicle is expected to be supplied by the Chinese battery company CATL.\nELM believes that it has a competitive advantage because its first vehicle, the ELM Urban Delivery, is scheduled to be available in 2021. It is based on a proven, existing platform developed and sold by Sokon Group in the Asian market, where there are 30,000 of these electric delivery vehicles driving 1.5 million miles every day. At the close of the business combination, ELM will be an independent, U.S. company producing electric vehicles in the U.S. with Sokon Group providing access to its know-how, parts supply, and field and service data.\nELM expects that the Urban Delivery vehicle will be the first electric delivery vehicle coming to market in the class 1 category (GVW of 6,000 lbs or less) in the U.S. It will also have 35% more carrying volume compared to similar ICE delivery vehicles, a critical part of the value proposition. It also anticipates that its price and greater carrying volume will allow it to take market share from the class 2 category of vehicles as well.\nIts crossover product portfolio strategy targets commercial delivery vehicles spanning from class 1 to class 3, which represents over 80% of the last mile market.\nELM anticipates $122 million in revenue in 2021, rapidly increasing to $3 billion in 2025. The price of FIII stock increased immediately following its announcement with Electric Last Mile, rising more than 40% to $14.50, but now it has dropped closer to the original deal price to $10.25 for a market cap of approximately $1.5 billion.\nGreenPower Motor Company (GP)\nGreenPower Motor Company Inc. is a Canadian battery-electric bus manufacturer with multiple models of high- and low-floor vehicles, including transit buses, school buses, and shuttles. GreenPower offers commercial vehicles for delivery, public transit, schools, vanpooling, micro-transit, shuttles, and is developing a capability of autonomous operation. It went public on August 28, 2020.\nIn 2014 GreenPower launched its first purpose-built, battery-electric bus, the EV350, 40-foot transit bus. GreenPower received its first order in 2017 for ten EV350s from the City of Porterville, California.\nGreenPower's electric buses are purpose-built and designed to be all-electric, allowing it to put the battery and propulsion system in optimized locations that provide weight and structural advantages. Its primary EV is the EV Star with more than 120 vehicles delivered. It comes in several variations:\n\nEV Star - Up to 19 passengers\nEV Star Plus - Up to 24 passengers\nEV Star ADA - Passenger and curbside lift for ADA\nEV Star Cargo - 5,000 pounds of load\nEV Star Cargo Plus - 570 cubic feet of cargo space.\n\nIts EV school bus seats up to 90 students and has a range of up to 150 miles.\nGreenPower had revenue of $13.5 million in 2020 It has about $21 million in cash. It's an interesting alternative since it is already shipping EVs, has revenue, and also has a lower market cap of less than $1 billion. Since it did a traditional IPO, it hasn't published longer-term financial forecasts.\nArrival (CIIC)\nArrival was founded in 2015 in London to make a variety of commercial electric vehicles. It has approximately 1,200 employees across 11 cities in 8 countries. In November 2020, Arrival and the SPAC CIIG entered into a business combination agreement with an implied valuation of $5.39 billion.\nArrival plans on releasing four commercial EVs over the next few years.\n\nQ4/2021: An electric bus for 8-125 passengers and a range of 240-400km\nQ3/2022: An electric delivery van with a payload of 975-2,000kg and a range of 150-340km\n2022: A larger electric van with a payload of 4,000 kg and a range of 190-400km\n2023: a small vehicle platform with a range of 100-300km.\n\nThis mix provides a nice diversified portfolio of EVs. Arrival claims to have received orders from UPS for 10,000 vans. It plans a unique flexible manufacturing approach using micro-factories with each projected to manufacture 10,000 vans per year. All of its vehicles use a modular skateboard electric platform.\nArrival ambitiously projects $14.1 billion in revenue in 2024. Half of that revenue is expected from delivery vans, 22% from buses, and the rest from the large van and its small vehicle platform. With CIIC's stock price at $24.80 per share, Arrival's current market cap is relatively high at approximately $15.0 billion. Justifying its market cap depends on its ability to release, sell, and produce its four commercial EVs.\nProterra (ACTC)\nProterra is a commercial electric vehicle company with over a decade of production experience. The Company has designed an end-to-end, flexible technology platform that claims to deliver higher performance and a low total cost of ownership to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end customers.\nProterra, Inc., was originally founded in Golden, Colorado, by Dale Hill in 2004. Later the company wanted to take the lead in creating zero-emission, U.S.-based transit buses. In 2010 it moved its manufacturing plant from Golden, Colorado to Greenville, South Carolina. In 2015, Proterra was awarded a $3 million grant from the California Energy Commission to fund the design, development, and construction of the company's battery-electric transit bus manufacturing line in the City of Industry, California. It moved its headquarters from Greenville, South Carolina, to Burlingame, California, in October 2015. Proterra raised more than $600 million in funding.\nIt is going public through the SPAC ArcLight (ACTC) with a pro forma valuation of $1.6 billion. Upon completion of the transaction, Proterra expects to have up to $825 million in cash to fund growth initiatives, including R&D and the expansion of its next-generation battery program.\nProterra has three complementary businesses:\n\nProterra Powered: Delivering battery systems and electrification solutions to commercial vehicle manufacturers\nProterra Transit:Providing an electric transit bus OEMs\nProterra Energy:Offering turnkey charging and energy management solutions.\n\nThe company's battery systems have been proven in more than 16 million service miles driven by its fleet of transit vehicles and validated through partnerships with commercial vehicle OEMs. Proterra has produced and delivered more than 300 megawatt-hours of battery systems, more than 550 heavy-duty electric transit buses, and installed 54 megawatts of charging systems.\nProterra expected $193 million of revenue in 2020, with an estimated $750 million in existing orders and backlog. It projects $2.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with about 1/3 coming from its Transit business, and 2/3 From Powered & Energy. At ACTC's current stock price of $17.85, Proterra has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nRivian\nRivian (see earlier description in consumer retail) will also compete in the commercial delivery market. It has been working with Amazon (a major investor) to build large electric delivery vans for Prime. Developed specifically for Amazon, a small fleet of Prime vans is on the road now, testing deliveries to customers and gathering feedback. In late fall, it could grow to a large fleet as Rivian ramps up the volume.\nThe EV range of 150 miles is tailored to Amazon's use cycle to optimize the size, weight, and cost of the commercial vehicle. Rivian has three sizes of batteries, but Amazon is starting with just one of them.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nSee the previous summary under consumer retail EV.\nMedium and Long-Haul Trucking EV Companies\nCompanies developing medium- and long-haul EV trucks face a more difficult challenge with battery range. These trucks haul much more weight than commercial delivery vehicles and because they are designed for long distances, they can't stop every 200-300 miles for recharging.\nFor this reason, many of these companies are using unique hybrid technologies for their trucks. The EV trucks in this category are primarily heavy-duty but also include some medium-duty trucks and specialty vehicles. A couple of the companies focus on retrofitting trucks to be electric.\nMedium-Duty Trucks\nThe medium-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 4, 5, and 6:\n\nClass 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.\nClass 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.\nClass 6: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 19,501-26,000 pounds or 8,846-11,793 kilograms.1\n\nHeavy-Duty Trucks\nThe heavy-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 7 and 8:\n\nClass 7: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 26,001 to 33,000 pounds or 11,794-14,969 kilograms.\nClass 8: This class of trucks has a GVWR of greater than 33,001 pounds or 14,969 kilograms and includes all tractor-trailers.\n\nThe Tesla Semi is a battery vehicle planned for a range of 300 or 500 miles and a speed of 60 MPH with 80,000 lbs of cargo. Tesla plans to start shipping the Semi later this year when it expects to have sufficient cell volume to meet its needs with the production of its 4680 battery pack.\nNikola(NASDAQ:NKLA)\nNikola has been a very controversial company. Founded in 2015, it originally had two different strategies. Its primary strategy is to lease fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) Class-8 heavy trucks and provide the refueling infrastructure to corporate customers. Its second strategy was to develop the Badger EV truck using GM technology.\nNikola originally merged with a SPAC to go public, at an enterprise value of approximately $3.3 billion. On June 6th, 2020, its market cap jumped to more than $30 billion, then later it dropped because of problems with its originally planned deal with GM.\nNikola originally expected a deal with General Motors that included the production of the Nikola Badger EV pickup truck. The proposed arrangement was that GM would take a $2 billion equity stake in Nikola and in return would engineer and produce the Badger. In November 2020, GM and Nikola scrapped the original arrangement. Now it appears that GM will supply Nikola with only its Hydrotec hydrogen fuel-cell technology to integrate into the EV manufacturer's commercial class 7 and class 8 zero-emission semi-trucks. So, the Badger is probably dead.\nNikola now sees semi-trucks as the company's \"core business\" and fuel cells as an increasingly important segment of the semi-truck market thanks to their efficiency in weight and consumption. It expects to begin testing by the end of 2021.\nIt has received pre-orders from Anheuser-Busch and a few other companies, but it doesn't expect deliveries until 2023. Hydrogen fueling stations are key to its strategy, both providing a source of revenue and necessary fueling infrastructure for the trucks to operate, but they also cost a lot. In its March 2020 investor deck, Nikola said a single station capable of fueling 210 trucks a day would cost $16.6 million. Its initial planned network of 700 stations would cost roughly $11.6 billion.\nNikola was also accused of misrepresentation, and its executive chairman and founder stepped down.\nAt the time of the SPAC merger, it projected an optimistic forecast of more than $3 billion in revenue by 2024, with a net income of $145 million. Most of that revenue was expected to come from its Badger truck, which is no longer in the plans. Yet its market cap is still almost $6 billion.\nHyliion (HYLN)\nHyliion, founded in 2015 in Austin, went public in October 2020 through the SPAC Tortoise Acquisition Corp. (SHLL). In March 2019, automotive parts manufacturer Dana Inc. made an equity investment into Hyliion, and together they are manufacturing and marketing Class 8 EVs to Dana's customers, including Volvo, Navistar, and Peterbilt.\nHyliion's strategy is unique, and a very different strategy from Nikola. Essentially it generates electricity onboard the truck using compressed natural gas (CNG). This should be a benefit for longer-range trucking. Hyliion's Hypertruck concept involves an all-electric drivetrain utilizing Dana's electric motor, inverter, and axle technologies. The truck's batteries are fueled by onboard tanks of CNG. With some 700 CNG stations already operating nationwide, it believes that there no need to build out expensive superchargers or hydrogen infrastructure.\nKuwait-based logistics company, Agility, has already placed an order for 1,000 Hypertrucks with initial deliveries targeted in 2022. Combined with a fully electric drivetrain and a natural gas-powered onboard generator to recharge the battery, the Hypertruck ERX will provide more than 1,000 miles of range.\nHyliion will eventually compete with Nikola (FCEV) and the Tesla battery-based Semi, but it plans to have a longer range and lower operating costs. Its HyperTruck ERX is expected to be available in 2021. It also has a hybrid-electric truck.\nThe combination with SHLL had an estimated market cap of about $1.5 billion, with approximately $530 million going to the company, including a $325 million fully committed PIPE. At approximately $13.50 per share, its current market cap is approximately $2.2 billion, significantly down from its peak. Hyliion projects $2 billion in revenue in 2024, which it claims is only about 2% of the addressable market.\nXL Fleet (XL)\nXL Fleet is a 10-year old company that went public through the SPAC Pivotal. XL is different because it provides fleet electrification modifications for ICE trucks across a wide range of vehicle classes (class 2-5) and types. It has over 200 of the largest commercial and municipal fleets as customers, with more than 3,200 XL systems deployed and over 130 million miles driven by customers to date. XL's customer base includes FedEx, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Verizon, the City of Boston, Seattle Fire Department, Yale University, and Harvard University.\nXL's business model is essentially retrofitting existing trucks to be hybrids and then later expanding into fully electric truck conversions. It claims to be creating a fully integrated platform for this. It remains to be seen if the retrofitting business will continue to grow or will it diminish when more trucks are designed and manufactured with EV capabilities.\nUnlike some other EV companies that have no revenue yet because they are still developing products, XL is more of a small company doing low-volume retrofits. It had $7.2 million in revenue in 2019, $21 million in 2020, and estimates $76 million in 2021, but it forecasts $1.3 billion in revenue in 2024 in its investor presentation. It plans to do this by expanding its product line from hybrid to plug-in hybrid to fully electric across a broader range of trucks. It claims to have a $220 million sales pipeline for the next 12 months.\nShort-seller, Muddy Waters, claimed after talking to former XL Fleet employees, that it believed the company significantly exaggerated its order backlog, that the return on investment for the company's products was likely negative, and that it would not be able to compete with big car makers on electrification. The company thoroughly refuted these claims.\nThe original enterprise valuation was approximately $1.4 billion at a $10 share price for the merger. Its price jumped by about 35% but has since gone back down to $12.40 for a market cap of about $1.8 billion. Although XL Fleet has revenue and other EV companies don't, this may not be an advantage. It appears to be a small company for many years that has gone public at a high valuation with grand plans. The risks are in its ability to make a jump from $76 million in 2021 to $1.3 billion in 2024, as well as the question about retrofitting being replaced by new EV trucks by then.\nXos (NGAC)\nXos Trucks specializes in the field of manufacturing fully electric commercial vehicles. It features a software platform that is designed to accommodate an extensive variety of medium-duty bodies, wheelbase, and range requirements up to 200 miles. It was founded in 2016 and headquartered in North Hollywood, California. It received $20 million of investment in 2020 and now is going public through a merger with the SPAC ExtGen Acquisition Corporation (NGAC) at an estimated proforma value of $1.965 billion.\nIts focus is on medium- and heavy-duty last mile and return-to-base segments (class 5/6, class 6/7, and class 7/8) commercial fleets and specialty vehicles. Some vehicles are currently in production and in regular on-road operations with key fleet customers, and it claimed 6,000 unit orders in backlog.\nIts MD-platform is for classes 5-6 for pickup and delivery. Its HD X-Platform is an adaptable chassis for highway, vocational, and severe work conditions. Its market is for customers with highly predictable routes that allow for batteries designed for a more limited range. A significantly larger frame and smaller battery pack allow for reduced density.\nXos has a bundled all-in-one offering that allows fleets to access all the tools and services they need to go electric with a single point of contact at a fixed monthly expense.\nXos had $3 million in revenue in 2020 and estimates $14 million in 2021. However, it forecasts $5.2 billion in revenue in 2025. At the current stock price of $10.30, its market cap is approximately $2 billion, about the same as its original SPAC transaction.\nLion Electric (NGA)\nLion Electric is a Canadian company founded by Marc Bédard in 2008. Its focus is to be a leader in designing, developing, and manufacturing purpose-built urban electric vehicles; vehicles that are specifically designed as delivery trucks, refuse trucks, bucket trucks, moving trucks, school buses, and shuttle buses. It has over 300 all-electric vehicles on the road today.\nIn November 2020, it announced that it was going public through the SPAC NGA. The transaction had an estimated pro forma enterprise value of $1.5 billion.\nIt plans on seven new truck models and one new school bus, for a total of 15 all-electric vehicles, representing a full line-up from class 5 to class 8 electric trucks and a full line-up of electric school buses. Its vehicles are produced at its existing manufacturing plant, which has the capacity for the production of up to 2,500 vehicles per year. It intends to open a new plant in the U.S. capable of delivering over 20,000 Lion trucks and buses per year by 2022.\nIts all-electric class 6 and class 8 commercial urban trucks combine power, comfort, and modern technology. Custom-built chassis and cabin designed specifically for an all-electric heavy-duty vehicle. The LionC is an all-electric Type C school bus manufactured in North America. The body and chassis were specifically designed to deliver optimal performance. The LionM is an all-electric midi/minibus that meets paratransit and public transportation requirements. Created and designed specifically for the paratransit market, the is spacious and offers unique features that provide enhanced security and accessibility to the end-users.\nLion Electric had $29 million in revenue in 2020 and expects $204 million in 2021. It forecasts revenue to jump to $3.6 billion a few years later in 2024. Its current market cap is approximately $3.6 billion based on its current stock price of $18.33.\nLightning eMotors (GIK)\nLightning eMotors, formerly Lightning Systems, was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Loveland, Colorado. It provides fleet electrification for familiar commercial vehicle platforms by retrofitting them with its electric powertrains. Lightning eMotors produces electric fleet medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including delivery trucks, shuttle buses, passenger vans, ambulances, bucket trucks, chassis-cab models, and city transit buses. It focuses on urban commercial zero-emission vehicles with a full range of class 3 through class 7 battery-electric and fuel-cell electric vehicles.\nLighting eMotors helps commercial fleets achieve their sustainability goals by offering zero-emission battery-electric vans, trucks, and buses based on familiar, proven vehicles from manufacturers such as Ford and GM. It works with customers, to help them identify their unique commercial electric vehicle, charging, and grant support needs.\nThe Lightning products include integrated all-electric powertrains for the Ford Transit 350HD passenger and cargo vans, Ford E-450 shuttle bus and cutaway models, Ford F-59 step/food van, Ford F-550 cargo trucks and buses, Chevrolet 6500XD Low Cab Forward model, and 30-foot, 35-foot, and 40-foot transit buses.\nLightning has 120 vehicles on the road, and 1,500 vehicles already on order from customers. In addition to making vehicles and powertrains, Lightning also provides a full suite of charging solutions for customers.\nThe deal with GIK has an enterprise value of $650 million, although there is also an Earnout of 20.0% of total pro forma shares outstanding to Lightning eMotors shareholders if the stock crosses certain price thresholds.\nAt the current price, of $11.73, GIK has a market cap of approximately $1 billion, a little more than the original transaction valuation. Similar to XL Fleet, Lightning has the risk that retrofitting may only be an interim business opportunity until more EV trucks are produced.\nPublic Chinese EV Companies\nChina will be the biggest EV market opportunity, and EV start-ups may do better there because there isn't as much entrenched competition from domestic auto companies. China is already the largest EV market in the world, with almost a million EVs sold in 2019. Its EV market represents almost half of the global EV sales volume and is much larger than the U.S. market.\nThe Chinese government has ambitions to become a global leader in new energy vehicles. Soon after the coronavirus outbreak subsided within the country, Chinese authorities announced new policies to support the auto and electric vehicle industries.\nThese Chinese companies are traded through American depository shares (ADS) that contain certain risks. There are financial reporting and transparency risks with these companies, and on top of that, the newer companies are being classified as \"emerging growth\" companies that are already exempt from certain transparency requirements set out in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Like the previous EV stock, these stocks have also been very volatile.\nIn addition to legacy auto manufacturers like BYD, there are also three Chinese EV companies that are publicly traded through American depositary shares.\nBYD Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:BYDDY)\nBYD, which means build your dreams, is the automotive subsidiary of the Chinese multinational BYD Co Ltd. It was founded in January 2003, following BYD Company's acquisition of Tsinchuan Automobile Company. The company produces automobiles, buses, electric bicycles, forklifts, rechargeable batteries, and trucks. The current model range of automobiles includes electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and petrol-engined vehicles. Thirteen years ago, on the advice of his famously skeptical lieutenant, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett made a $232 million investment in BYD, a relatively unknown Chinese car company.\nBy parlaying BYD's rechargeable battery technology into a fast-growing carmaking operation, it gained a foothold in the fledgling electric vehicle market, building longer-lasting batteries and cheaper vehicles than American and Japanese manufacturers were managing to do at the time. In BYD, Buffett and Munger believed they had found a company with a shot at one day becoming the largest player in a global automobile market that was inevitably going electric.\nBYD's start to 2021 was strong with 19,871 plug-in electric cars sold in January in China, including hybrid plug-ins. That was a big increase over 2020 but not as much as 2019.\nLI Auto (LI)\nLixiang, formerly known as Chehejia (\"Car and Home\"), was founded in 2015 and went public in the U.S. on July 30th, 2020. It is a Beijing-based electric-vehicle startup with vertically integrated manufacturing. It designs, researches, manufactures, sells, and offers services featuring a few models of electric vehicles.\nThe company's SUVs are hybrids of a sort. They use electric motors (one on the front axle and one on the rear), but those motors are powered by a combination of a 40.5kWh battery packanda 1.2-liter turbocharged engine paired to a 45-liter fuel tank and a 100kW electric generator, which generates power for the battery pack in real-time. The idea is that the car can be driven for about 100 miles on battery power alone, but it has a total range of nearly 500 miles when leveraging the combustion engine generator.\nThe Company's primary product is an SUV under its brand Li ONE. It also sells peripheral products and provides related services, such as charging stalls, vehicle internet connection services, and extended lifetime warranties. Li Auto is looking to sell a variety of SUVs built on its hybrid technology that range from around $21,000 to about $70,000. The company started shipping its first model in late 2019. It's a midsize SUV is well-appointed and has lots of touchscreens and technology. A full-size premium version is planned for release in 2022.\nDeliveries of Li ONEs were 14,464 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a 67.0% quarter-over-quarter increase and setting a new quarterly record. Deliveries for the full year 2020 reached 32,624 vehicles. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $635 million.\nLI auto went public on July 30th, 2020, raising $1.1 billion at an initial price of $15.50 per share but quickly reached almost $24. It is currently valued at approximately $37 billion at a price of approximately $25.72 per share.\nXPeng (XPEV)\nXiaopeng (XPeng) Motors is a Chinese electric vehicle and technology company that designs and manufactures smart cars. It was founded in 2015 and went public on August 27, 2020, using American depository shares, raising about $1 billion. To date, it has raised about $2.6 billion.\nXPeng aims its EVs at technology-savvy middle-class Chinese consumers, with prices ranging from $22,000 to $45,000 after government subsidies. In some ways, it is a Tesla knock-off at a much lower price. XPeng started production of the G3 in November 2018, and as of July 31, 2020, delivered 18,741. It started production of the P7 and began delivery in May 2020, and as of July 31, 2020, it had delivered 1,966 EVs. The P7 has a range of more than 400 miles. It plans to launch a third Smart EV, a sedan, in 2021. The G3 was among the top-three best-selling electric SUVs in China in 2019.\nXPeng is interesting because it has a platform strategy and is moving aggressively into autonomous driving. It uses a platform strategy to expand product offerings by launching one Smart EV model each year to broaden the addressable market. It builds new models on two highly flexible Smart EV platforms, called David and Edward, respectively. The David platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,600 millimeters to 2,800 millimeters, and the Edward platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,800 millimeters to 3,100 millimeters. It also adopted a platform approach for software systems.\nXPeng claims to be developing an autonomous driving capability for its EVs. The P7 is the first production vehicle to feature the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Xavier system-on-a-chip (SoC) autonomous driving platform. The company's Smart Electric Platform Architecture (SEPA) runs on 2 chips - NVIDIA for the XPILOT and Qualcomm's Snapdragon™ 820A for intelligent services and infotainment, including cameras inside and outside, radars, HD-map, and ultrasonic sensors. Like Tesla, it claims it can create sufficiently-autonomous driving without lidar.\nTo enhance brand recognition and allow more people to experience its Smart EVs, it deployed a small number of Smart EVs in a ride-hailing service in Guangzhou on a trial basis, but it has no current plan to scale up a ride-hailing service.\nXpeng sees first-quarter 2021 deliveries rising 450% year-over-year to 12,500 vehicles. Revenues are expected to increase 533% from a year ago. The company didn't provide bottom-line estimates for the quarter, but will likely post another net loss as it ramps up manufacturing, invests in R&D, and builds out a new manufacturing plant set to open in 2022.\nXpeng reported selling 12,964 vehicles in Q4 2020, up 303% from a year ago. It delivered a total of 27,041 vehicles in 2020, up 112%. It makes the P7 sedan, a rival to the made-in-China Tesla Model 3, and the small G3 SUV.\nThe stock opened on August 27, 2020 at a price of $15 and a valuation of $11 billion, but its stock jumped more than 40% shortly after. Its current valuation is about $35 billion at a stock price of approximately $36.13 per share. It had about $300 million in revenue in 2019 with a loss of about $500 million.\nNio (NIO)\nUnlike previous companies, Nio has been a public company for some time. It originally went public in the U.S. back in September of 2018, selling IPO shares at $6.26 and raising $1 billion.\nNio's IPO was far from smooth. After going public at $6.26 per share, it traded down to nearly $1. Then in the middle of the coronavirus outbreak, Nio received a much-needed investment of $1 billion from investors, including state-backed entities.\nNio designs, jointly manufactures, and sells smart and connected premium electric vehicles, attempting to develop next-generation technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving, and artificial intelligence. Joint manufacturing means that it uses a state-owned contract manufacturer to build its cars.\nNio plans to provide customers with comprehensive, convenient, and innovative charging solutions and other user-centric services. It began deliveries of the ES8, a 7-seater high-performance premium electric SUV in China in June 2018, and its variant, the six-seater ES8, in March 2019. Nio officially launched the ES6, a 5-seater high-performance premium electric SUV, in December 2018 and began deliveries in June 2019. It officially launched the EC6, a 5-seater smart premium electric Coupe SUV, in December 2019 with deliveries in 2020.\nNio sold 17,353 EVs in Q4/2020 and 43,728 for the year. It warned a shortage in chips and batteries will force a production slowdown to 7,500 a month in Q2 from 10,000 vehicles a month in February.\nNio currently trades at more than $43 per share, including a big jump recently, for a valuation of approximately $48 billion. It had revenue of $2.3 billion in 2019 for a loss of $3.8 billion.\nSummary\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this should provide exciting new investment opportunities. However, the investment terrain is complex. There are dozens of new start-ups where the public can now invest that were previously exclusively venture capital investment opportunities. Many of these are following different roads to success. There are legacy auto manufacturers that could prosper or get destroyed in this transition. There are some exciting new EV company opportunities in China. And then there is Tesla.\nThis EV roadmap is intended to help investors explore different roads to investment by explaining the basic strategies for these EV companies. These roads can have different opportunities and risks, and the roadmap helps to frame these. Above all, valuation is an overriding risk that is highlighted throughout this article.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3859246,"gmtCreate":1616465801646,"gmtModify":1680781361184,"authorId":3574639331964090,"author":{"id":3574639331964090,"idStr":"3574639331964090","authorId":3574639331964090,"name":"yung","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9824f99b3f3aafd5e3bbacc77ffee02d","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":353353349,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"agree","text":"agree","html":"agree"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":353385767,"gmtCreate":1616461810659,"gmtModify":1704794373118,"author":{"id":"3577323008824535","authorId":"3577323008824535","name":"JFZW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577323008824535","authorIdStr":"3577323008824535"},"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353385767","repostId":1196402560,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1196402560","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616134696,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196402560?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-19 14:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"New Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196402560","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, an","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>It's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.</li>\n <li>Last October, I wrote a popular article providing a roadmap for investing in electric vehicles, but since then, so much has changed: new entrants, new strategies, fluctuating valuations, etc.</li>\n <li>So, I updated and greatly expanded the previous EV investment roadmap.</li>\n <li>This update includes a deeper look at valuations for 23 EV companies with revenue projections, when available.</li>\n <li>It also classifies these EV companies into their primary market categories and summarizes their different strategies.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb96acc615cba9c7842860658c019ab1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\">Photo by Sven Loeffler/iStock via Getty Images\nMy article&nbsp;Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap&nbsp;published five months ago, was popular, and some followers have requested an update. Many new EV companies entered the market, most of them through SPACs. Valuations fluctuated wildly, and there has been a great deal of publicity around these companies.\nThis new updated EV investment roadmap is greatly expanded. In addition to updating the strategies and progress of companies previously discussed, I expanded the number of companies covered. This article also groups EV companies into their primary markets, enabling better comparisons and evaluation of market opportunities. In addition, it includes a comparative valuation chart showing every company's market cap with a comparison to projected revenue, where possible. This takes advantage (good or bad) of looking at the long-term revenue forecasts provided in SPAC mergers that public companies can't make.\nIn addition to the EV manufacturers discussed here, there are also EV investment opportunities in charging station companies, battery manufacturers, and battery materials companies. These were covered in the original roadmap and may also be updated in a later article.\nApproximately 2 million EVs were sold in 2019, and although the number declined along with all auto sales in 2020, it is forecasted to increase in 2021 and reach 8-10 million by 2025. Some forecast that EV sales will be greater than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2030, or even earlier. The automobile market appears to be moving toward a historical transformation, and exceptional investment gains can be made by anticipating new emerging industries and investing in the eventual winners of those new industries. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)are obvious examples. Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to create a new emerging industry.\nThere are also significant risks. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to be released in the next three years, which will drive rapid growth in EV sales. However, the expected sales from these new models, as well as the increasing expectations from Tesla, most likely exceed the total projected market. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the companies covered here won't exist five years from now. It reminds me of the internet bubble of the late 1990s when scores of internet-based companies went public with little or no revenue. Almost all of these failed within three years -- however, a couple, including Amazon, went on to enormous success.\nEVs provide a major new investment opportunity with high risks. To succeed, you need to have a clear EV investment roadmap.\nSo, how can you invest in this new emerging market? The EV landscape is complex and investment opportunities are varied. While Tesla is the unquestioned leader in EVs, some consider it overvalued and unlikely to show exceptional returns to new investors. The current U.S. legacy automakers are committed to introducing many new EVs in the next few years, and they have some entrenched advantages with volume manufacturing capabilities, a dealer infrastructure, and loyal customers. There are exciting new EV start-ups in the U.S. that have come public this year, mostly through Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), and there are several interesting publicly traded Chinese EV manufacturers.\nThis new roadmap for EV investment classifies companies into three primary markets segments:\n<ul>\n <li>TheConsumer Retailsegment includes EVs sold to consumers individually, such as SUVs, pickup trucks, sedans, etc.</li>\n <li>TheCommercial Deliverysegment includes local delivery EV vans and trucks sold to fleets.</li>\n <li>TheMedium- and Long-Haul Truckingsegment includes heavier Class 4 - Class 8 trucks, as well as special industrial vehicles.</li>\n</ul>\nIn addition, it categorizesLegacy ManufacturersandChinese EV Companies. This enables investors to evaluate investment opportunities by considering unique opportunities within each market segment.\nThere is an enormous amount of investment optimism for EVs, and retail investors have been aggressively buying into EV stocks with seemingly no regard for valuation. Then there is the additional challenge of valuing companies with no revenue, especially those coming public through SPACs. So, valuation is an important investment consideration.\nSo let's start by looking at an overview of comparative EV valuations.\nEV Investment Valuation Overview\nThe following chart summarizes valuations for 23 EV companies, including several legacy companies. For SPACs, market cap estimates are computed using the pro forma number of shares at closing, otherwise using the valuation of the SPAC prior to closing drastically underestimates the valuation, which may be misleading to novice investors. Price/Sales ratios (market cap divided by revenue) are used to compare valuations. As a benchmark, current P/S ratios vary. For example, auto and truck companies have a ratio of 2.7X. Software companies have the highest ratios of over 10X.\nIn the chart, companies that currently have revenue show current P/S ratios. Where projections are available, projected P/S ratios are computed. A note of caution, however. Many of the EV companies came public through SPACs and published their projections (which public companies cannot do), and many of these are likely to prove unrealistic.\nAll of the longer-term revenue projections come from the company (C) forecasts with a SPAC. Some of these may turn out to be accurate, not many are most likely unrealistic. Some, like Lucid, Faraday, and Arrival forecast hitting more than $10 billion in revenue in a few years, when it took Tesla more than 10. Things are different now and they might achieve these, but they could also find that it will take longer to complete development, ramp up production, and create enough customer demand. Many companies may also find that there will be significant capital requirements to achieve this type of growth, and shareholders will be diluted.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc360dfa7de01516b7f68d5962cf3017\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"883\">\nTesla, the \"gold standard\" in EVs, has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, which many people believe is overvalued. Its market cap is approximately 20X 2020 revenue and 10X estimated 2022 revenue.\nTesla (TSLA)\nIn the U.S., and to a lesser extent in China, Tesla is the dominant EV provider. It has approximately 60% of the U.S. EV market and about 20% of the market in China. I own a Tesla and love it, but an investment in Tesla stock requires getting comfortable with its valuation. Tesla has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, although declining lately, which some consider still overvalued while others see upside potential.\nThe investment opportunity with Tesla is based on the expectation that it will continue to dominate the EV market, or at least maintain significant market share, despite much greater competition from the expected introduction of hundreds of new EV models in the next few years.\nThere is a great deal already published about Tesla, so I'll move on.\nLegacy Automakers\nSome people think that the legacy automakers will simply fade away. Historically, that was the case in some other industries, but it is not going to happen to most automakers. They are not standing still waiting to become obsolete. Most have aggressive strategies to replace ICE vehicles with EVs. GM plans to invest $27 billion and build and launch as many as 30 new EV models by 2025. Ford plans to invest $29 billion in EVs by 2025 and launch as many as 16 EVs in the next two years. Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY)has also committed billions to develop new EVs.\nThe competitive advantage that legacy automakers have in selling their new EVs is their dealer network. Will new EV customers prefer to continue going to their regular auto dealer to buy their new EV?\nAlmost all legacy automakers worldwide are developing and launching EVs including Volkswagen, Peugeot, Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi, Hyundai/Kia. Let's look a little more closely at GM and Ford as the leaders in the U.S.\nGeneral Motors (GM)\nGM has committed to introducing 20 new electric vehicles by 2023, including EVs across Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC, and Buick. It recently announced that it has already sold out the first-year production of its Hummer electric pickup. By mid-decade, it expects to sell a million EVs per year in its two largest markets: North America and China. As a reference point, Tesla reported deliveries of 367,500 vehicles globally in 2019.\nGM has a solid platform strategy for its EVs. It plans on building its EVs using five interchangeable drive units and three different motors from its Ultium Drive System platform. Ultium energy options range from 50 to 200 kWh, which could enable an estimated range of up to 400 miles. Most of its EVs will have 400-volt battery packs and up to 200 kW fast-charging capability while the truck platform will have 800-volt battery packs and 350 kW fast-charging capabilities.\nThe key building blocks of the Ultium battery system are large-scale, high-energy cells. Engineered in partnership with LG Energy Solutions, they use both advanced chemistry and a smart cell design that's optimized for a broad portfolio of EVs. GM engineers and scientists are actively researching and testing new elements in battery chemistry to lower costs and improve charge times. Ultium can contain either vertically- or horizontally-stacked cells to integrate into vehicle design: vertically for trucks, SUVs, and crossovers, or horizontally for cars and performance vehicles. As new chemistry is developed and becomes available, the battery management system could digitally update the modules.\nGM also has other EV opportunities with its BrightDrop commercial EV service and its Cruise subsidiary. BrightDrop will not just sell delivery EVs, it will provide an entire service platform for commercial delivery customers. Its set of electric delivery vehicles starts with the EV600 and includes the BrightDrop EP1, a pod-like electric pallet. SeeGeneral Motors' Aggressive EV/AV Strategies May Payoff Big.\nWith its highest stock price of $61.65, GM's current market cap is approximately $89 billion, increasing primarily because of its progress with EVs. This approximately 3X valuation in 2018, but still only 13% of Tesla.\nFord (F)\nFord is also investing heavily in EVs. It just introduced the Mustang Mach-E, a battery-powered crossover with sports car styling, and plans to introduce an all-electric version of its best-selling F-150 pickup later this year. Also, planned is an electric edition of the full-size Transit van, which has been popular in the commercial delivery market. Ford has confirmed plans to build a luxury Lincoln crossover on a battery-powered platform provided by Rivian. The automaker also plans to introduce two new midsize electric crossovers, one each for the Ford and Lincoln brands by 2023.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd8523e15bccc57790940d4218f7b94e\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"1080\">Mustang Mach-E. Source: Ford\nFord's market cap is approximately $51 billion, twice its previous market cap, and also increasing.\nConsumer Retail EV Companies\nThe consumer retail market has some unique characteristics for new EV companies. Sales are made individually, not in fleets. This diversifies the risk upon launch because only a sufficient number of customers need to be attracted to the new EV. A wave of popularity can provide terrific momentum.\nHowever, the lack of a dealer network can be an impediment. Selling EVs directly to consumers instead of through dealers is prohibited in most states. By law, auto manufacturers can't compete with franchised dealers. These are laws that go back many decades to protect dealers. This can be a major impediment for new companies without established independent dealer franchises. So, new AV companies. like Tesla, need to sell their vehicles online. Tesla has successfully done this, but it took a lot of work and time. Lack of a dealer network also creates impediments in service.\nIn addition, over the next 4-5 years, autonomous capabilities will be increasingly important to luxury vehicles. This may prove to be a challenge to start-up EV companies because they can't afford to develop this technology.\nLet's look closer at the alternative consumer retail EV investments.\nLucid Motors (CCIV)\nLucid was founded in 2007 under the name Atieva and originally focused on building electric vehicle batteries and powertrains for other vehicle manufacturers. The company rebranded itself as Lucid Motors in October 2016 and shifted its strategy to develop an all-electric, high-performance, luxury vehicle. Shortly after that, it encountered financial difficulties and struggled to get short-term funding. In 2018 it raised more than $1 billion in investment, primarily from Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund, and gave up a majority of the company.\nLucid Motors reached an agreement to become a publicly-traded company through a merger with the SPAC Churchill Capital IV Corp., in one of the largest deals SPAC EV deals. The combined company, in which Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund will continue to be the largest shareholder, had a transaction equity value of $11.75 billion (for $10/share). At the same time, it closed a PIPE investment priced at $15 a share, giving it an implied pro forma equity value of $24 billion. Rumors about this deal circulated before the transaction was formally announced, making it one of the most anticipated SPAC deals. The hype and speculation drove up the stock price of Churchill Capital IV Corp. from its opening price of $10 a share to almost $60. I believe that some of this may have been driven by novice SPAC investors who didn't realize that the valuation of CCIV didn't include the eventual valuation of Lucid. The share price dropped more than 30% after the details of the deal were announced. It's also likely that Lucid renegotiated the terms of the merger based on the price jump.\nThe company's first product is the Lucid Air, a well-equipped luxury electric vehicle that features 406 miles of projected range and 480 horsepower with a starting price of $77,400, or $69,900 after the U.S. Federal Tax Credit of $7,500. This new Lucid Air model is positioned as a high-performance, ultra-efficient luxury EV sedan in a line of future vehicles that are expected to include Lucid Air Touring, Grand Touring, and Dream Edition versions.\nThe company plans to begin production and deliveries of the Lucid Air in North America in the second half of 2021. Previously the company aimed to begin deliveries earlier in 2021. It intends to sell the car in Europe in 2022, followed by China in 2023. Lucid vehicles will be produced at its new factory in Casa Grande, Arizona. The company plans to expand the factory in phases in the coming years to have the capacity to produce 365,000 units per year at scale. The initial phase of the $700 million factory construction was completed late last year and will have the capacity to produce 30,000 vehicles a year.\nLucid also apparently has a commitment to build an assembly plant in Saudi Arabia, which was rumored to be a condition of the $1 billion investment from the Saudi public fund. The Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund also provided $600 million in bridge financing and invested in the SPAC deal as well. So, while this assembly plant may be expensive and may not be critical, it will most likely need to happen.\nLucid has ambitious plans to achieve $14 billion in revenue in 2025, and its current stock price at $29.17, which gives it a market cap of more than $46 billion, may already reflect those ambitions. Its market cap is roughly the same as Ford.\nFisker (FSR)\nFisker, which had its origins with Fisker Automotive, is an interesting story that ended in bankruptcy. Henrik Fisker originally co-founded Fisker Automotive in 2007. He was responsible for designing many premium cars such as the Aston Martin. Subsequently, Fisker Automotive had to deal with a Tesla lawsuit against Fisker Automotive alleging it stole Tesla's technology, a controversial $528.7 million conditional loan from the Department of Energy, a recall of its battery produced by A123, and the loss of several hundred vehicles in hurricane Sandy. Henrik Fisker resigned in March 2013 because of disagreements over business strategy and in November 2013, Fisker filed its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case.\nHowever, Henrik Fisker retained the Fisker brand and trademarks, and in 2016 he started another electric vehicle company named Fisker Inc. with the Fisker brand and trademarks. In 2019, Fisker shifted from developing a sports car with a solid-state battery to the Ocean SUV featuring a lithium-ion battery, which it later abandoned for a solid-state battery.\nFisker is positioning itself in a unique segment for those who want the most environmentally friendly EV. While this may be an early growth segment for EVs, it's difficult to estimate its eventual competitive advantage and the size of this environmentally-friendly market segment.\nThe Ocean is a crossover made of recycled metal and plastic with an expected base price of $37,499, and an expected lease of less than $400 a month. Fisker's plan is essentially a lease-only business model that lets customers keep a vehicle for years or return it at any time. It aims to source motors, batteries, and other components from technical partnerships with automakers and will outsource production from existing auto plants. Fisker is currently taking reservations at $250 for the Ocean. It also announced an agreement with Foxconn to jointly develop a vehicle pioneering a new market segment to be sold globally under the Fisker brand commencing in Q4 2023. at the end of 2022. Production will start at Magna Steyr's manufacturing facilities in Europe. At the end of February 2021, it had 12,467 cancellable reservations.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/924a617c90fc3276d7bdab8c64ebfdcf\" tg-width=\"744\" tg-height=\"389\">Fisker Ocean. Source: Fisker\nFisker went public using a SPAC (Spartan Energy). The original combination with SPAQ in October 2020 was valued at $2.9 billion with a cash investment of approximately $1 billion. The stock currently trades at approximately $21 per share, after reaching a high of $28.50, from the original price of $10, which is a market cap of $4.6 billion. Fisker projects $3.3 billion in revenue in 2023. It had almost $1 billion in cash at the end of 2020 and expected to use almost half of this in 2021: $250 million on operating expenses and $250 million in capital investments. If the Ocean is delayed into 2023, Fisker risks missing its revenue objective and will potentially need additional cash to complete development and launch.\nFaraday Future (PSAC)\nFaraday Future was originally established in May 2014 by Chinese businessman Jia Yueting. It is headquartered in Los Angeles and has offices in Silicon Valley, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu. Faraday Future also had a turbulent history. In 2016, it struggled financially, and in 2017 some key executives departed over a dispute about financial issues. They later founded Canoo.\nIn December 2018 the company announced layoffs due to a cash crunch and financial troubles. The company's founder Jia Yueting filed for personal bankruptcy in the United States' federal court in Delaware on October 14, 2019. Following Jia's personal bankruptcy, he decided to step down from his role as CEO of Faraday Future in order to assume a new position as the Chief Product and User Officer. He was replaced as CEO by Carsten Breitfeld, the former CEO at rival electric vehicle startup Byton.\nSomehow, Faraday was able to raise $2.3 billion in private funding over 5 rounds from a variety of investors. In early 2018, it received $1.5 billion in funding from an undisclosed investor from Hong Kong.\nFaraday's flagship product offering will be the FF 91, featuring 1,050 HP, 0-60 mph in less than 2.4 seconds, zero gravity seats with the largest 60-degree reclining angles, and a user experience designed to create a mobile, connected, and luxurious living space. The FF 91 is targeted to launch in 2022.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e38bfb3211c72bb73bc26f2ebe296fe\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"854\">FF 91. Source: Faraday Future\nIts strategic partners include one of China's top three OEMs and a critical Chinese city, which the company believes will help establish its presence in the Chinese vehicle market.\nFaraday Future plans several cars based on its Variable Platform Architecture. FF 91 is the first production vehicle and flagship model. Pricing will range between $120,000 and upwards of $200,000, which places it against formidable opponents. Faraday Future is already looking forward to expanding its range with a pair of smaller models named FF 81 and FF 71. The FF 81 is planned to be priced at $75,000 to 95,000 with a 2023 release. The FF 71 is planned to be priced at $45,000 to $65,000 with a planned release of 2024.\nThe Primary Manufacturing Facility for FF 91 is in Hanford, CA with contract manufacturing for future models in Gunsan, South Korea.\nFaraday Future is planning high-Level automation with a Level-3 capable system using a redundant safety architecture based on NVIDIA Xavier System-on-a-chip. It will be capable of highway auto-drive and hardware ready for advanced auto-drive. It is targeting full autonomous valet parking &amp; summon in any parking lot or structure. Eventually, it expects full auto-drive, including full 360˚ sensor coverage for advanced auto-drive &amp; auto-park features.\nIn January 2021, Faraday Future announced that the company would go public through a reverse merger with the special purpose acquisition company Property Solutions Acquisition Corp. (PSAC). The combined company will be valued at $3.4 billion. Faraday Future is expected to set up contract manufacturing operations in China through their partnership with Geely. Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn is also expected to serve as an additional strategic partner.\nFaraday Future projects $10.5 billion in revenue in 2024 and $21.5 billion in 2025. Revenue is expected to start in 2022 with the delivery of 2,400 vehicles for $504 million. Most likely these projections could prove to be optimistic. At a current stock price of approximately $12.80, it has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nLordstown Motors (RIDE)\nLordstown Motors based in Lordstown, Ohio, was originally founded in 2018 by Steve Burns, the former CEO of Workhorse Group. The company licensed technology from Workhorse in return for royalties and a 10% ownership. Lordstown is named after the famous GM Lordstown manufacturing plant, which it acquired in November 2019 in an unusual transaction. GM announced that it was closing the plant and was under a great deal of pressure for that decision. So, GM \"sold\" the plant to a company that was renamed Lordstown for an estimated $20 million that it loaned to the acquiring company. Subsequently, the sale was redefined to be part of a $75 million investment by GM, of which $50 million was an in-kind exchange for the plant.\nLordstown went public through the SPAC DiamondPeak Holdings Corp. in 2020. It currently has more than 400 employees.\nIts first product is the Lordstown Endurance, a full-sized EV pickup truck. Lordstown is positioning Endurance for the pickup fleet market segment. The expected price is $52,000+, and it claimed to have more than 100,000 pre-orders by January 2021. However, a recent research article published by a short seller claimed \"Our research has revealed that Lordstown's order book consists of fake or entirely non-binding orders, from customers that generally do not even have fleets of vehicles.\" Lordstown is disputing that article.\nIt believes the fleet pickup market segment is underserved with no current EV-focused competition. It estimates that the full-sized pick-up truck fleet market is 1.2 million vehicles per year in the U.S., but it's more fragmented than other truck fleets. Pickup \"fleets\" tend to be much smaller and local, so there may not be much of a market distinction for a small company buying several EV pickups from a traditional auto dealer. About half of the total U.S. pickup market is classified as fleet sales, meaning more than one.\nEven though Lordstown is targeting the commercial fleet market, it is a similar product to the Ford EV F-150. So I classify it in the consumer EV category. It is a class 2 vehicle. Lordstown also may enter the SUV market in the longer-term.\nThe Endurance will compete against future models from Rivian and Tesla, as well as Ford and GM in ICE pick-ups and their upcoming EV pick-ups. Ford plans on selling its EV F-150 in mid-2022. Initial production of the Endurance is expected in the second half of 2021, so it may have a short market advantage. Nevertheless, it forecasts selling 65,000 vehicles in 2023 and 107,000 in 2024. These estimates could be a large percentage of the EV pick-up market in those years.\nAt the SPAC merger, the implied valuation for Lordstown was $1.6 billion, including a $500 million PIPE and the $75 million by GM. Lordstown's financial projections appear to be aggressive. It projects to start shipping the Endurance in late 2021 with projected revenue in 2022 of $1.7 billion, increasing to $5.8 billion in 2024. Its stock price at approximately $13.60 values the company at a market cap of approximately $2.2 billion. The value of the company depends on the likelihood of achieving its projections.\nA fleet sales strategy makes sense for Lordstown since it would be too expensive to build a retail sales and service capability. However, it's not clear that this will become a distinct competitive advantage. Some small fleets may still prefer to buy their EV pickups from established local dealers with service capabilities.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nCanoo started as Evelozcity in 2017 and rebranded as Canoo in the spring of 2019. Canoo is a Los Angeles-based company that develops electric vehicles. It has over 350 employees. Canoo has designed a modular electric platform purpose-built to deliver maximum vehicle interior space, which is adaptable to support a wide range of vehicle applications for consumers and businesses. Canoo expects to launch its first consumer model in 2022, simply named the Canoo that will be available by subscription, followed shortly after by a multi-purpose delivery vehicle and a sports vehicle, each built off of the same underlying platform. Canoo went public using a SPAC (Hennessy Capital Acquisition) and now trades as GOEV.\nCanoo's all-electric skateboard-like platform is designed to support both consumer retail and commercial vehicle configurations. The EV leverages Canoo's flat skateboard architecture for a high level of usable interior space. Its commercial vehicle program, expected in 2023, addresses a projected $50B+ last-mile delivery market with an EV platform that maximizes cargo volume.\nHyundai Motor Group said it would jointly develop an electric vehicle platform with the company.\nCanoo's platform strategy is interesting. It could be used as an EV platform for custom fleets of delivery vehicles. It has no AV development, but it claims to be \"AV Ready\" which could be useful for AV companies wanting to build custom AV delivery fleets.\nIts all-electric multi-purpose delivery vehicle is expected to be priced starting at approximately $33,000. It is based on Canoo's proprietary electric platform and will be offered in two initial size variants, with others to follow. Limited availability will begin in 2022, with scaled production and launch planned for 2023. Customers can pre-order the multi-purpose delivery vehicle for a refundable deposit of $100 per vehicle\nIt plans to offer two multi-purpose delivery vehicles: the MPDV1 and the larger MPDV2. The first has a 200-foot cargo volume and a range of 130-200 miles. It offers more capacity than today's ICE delivery vehicles at an affordable price with urban mobility enabled by a space-efficient footprint. The vehicle is also designed to fit within many height-restricted areas like parking garages.\nThe MPDV2 has a cargo volume of 450 feet and a range of 90-190 miles. Its roof and step-in height enable individuals to easily walk-in the vehicle and accommodate a standing position while inside.\nThe original SPAC transaction provided approximately $600 million, with a pro forma equity value of approximately $2.4 billion. Like other SPAC mergers, its stock price has fluctuated. It currently trades at about $15.90 per share for a market cap of approximately $3.7 billion. Canoo projects $2.0 billion in revenue in 2025 from about $500 million in engineering services, $1.2 billion from its consumer vehicle subscriptions, and the remainder from its commercial program. Canoo expects revenue of more than $300 million in 2022 after the launch of its lifestyle consumer vehicle.\nSince its first products are aimed at consumers, as is most of its forecasted 2025 revenue, I categorize it primarily as a consumer EV company. However, I think the design of that Canoo vehicle may not attract enough customers. More importantly, its subscription service way of selling its EV to consumers is risky. I think it has more potential in the commercial market, however, a dual strategy (consumer and commercial) is challenging. I like its skateboard platform design and that could prove to be a competitive advantage.\nRivian\nAlthough not yet public, I include Rivian because it has plans for an IPO as soon as Sept 2021, although it could slip into 2022. There are rumors that the company is targeting a market valuation of approximately $50B. Rivian has already raised more than $8 billion to date from Amazon, Ford, T. Rowe Price, and others.\nRivian has developed and vertically integrated a connected electric platform that can be flexibly applied to a range of applications, including the company's adventure products, as well as B2B products such as the Amazon last-mile delivery vans. The company's initial products, the R1T and R1S, provide a combination of performance, off-road capability, and utility. These vehicles will be produced at Rivian's manufacturing plant in Normal, Ill., with customer deliveries expected to begin in summer 2021. The launch of the R1S three-row electric SUV will follow in August.\nAdditional lower-priced models are being planned. The expected R2 series would include at least two smaller electric vehicles to coincide with the smaller platform, then another platform for R3.\nCommercial Delivery EV Companies\nEV truck companies differ based on the type of truck they are developing. The technology and markets are very different, so I separate them into two categories. The first category includes commercial delivery vehicles.\nCompanies making EV delivery vehicles have some major advantages that could make them good investments. First, delivery vehicles typically travel less than 250 miles during a day, so they can be conveniently recharged overnight. Secondly, they are typically sold in large quantities to fleets. This means that building a retail sales infrastructure is not necessary. It only requires a small salesforce. In addition, maintenance can also be provided at the fleet's operational center, so not as many service centers are required.\nThe disadvantage in this market is that there are a relatively small number of customers that buy in large volumes, so if the EV manufacturer can't get enough large customers, they may not be able to stay in business. GM estimates the combined market opportunity for parcel and food delivery, as well as reverse logistics, in the U.S. will be more than $850 billion by 2025.\nThe commercial market is expected to be a major growth area for EVs. Other start-up automakers like Rivian as well as legacy automakers such as Ford, Daimler, and GM have announced plans to enter the segment. GM recently announced its BrightDrop ecosystem for commercial customers that includes an all-new electric delivery van, the EV600 available by the end of 2021, as well as an integrated autonomous pallet and related services.\nThis group of EV companies focuses primarily on commercial delivery. In general, these are in the light-duty trucks category, although it also includes some medium-duty trucks. This generally includes the following commercial truck classes:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 1: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 0-6,000 pounds or 0-2,722 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 2: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 6,001-10,000 pounds or 2,722-4,536 kilograms.1</li>\n <li>Class 3: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 10,001-14,000 pounds or 4,536-6,350 kilograms.</li>\n</ul>\nIt can also include somewhat larger medium-duty EV delivery trucks:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.</li>\n</ul>\nEV delivery trucks also have an advantage over ICE vehicles because they can have a greater delivery storage space. Smaller buses and transit vehicles are also included in this category.\nLast-mile package delivery is not an immediate-term autonomous vehicle opportunity because it requires a delivery person to be on the truck anyway.\nWorkhorse Group (WKHS)\nWorkhorse has been a public company for ten years. Originally AMP Electric Vehicles, it was established in 2007 as a developmental-stage vehicle electrification company, focusing on conversions. AMP Electric Vehicles went public in 2010 trading on the OTC market under the AMPD symbol. When the economic benefits of conversion became less certain, it pivoted away from passenger vehicles and began to focus on electrifying commercial vehicles. AMP acquired the Workhorse brand and the Workhorse custom chassis assembly plant in Union City. In March of 2013, AMP formally changed its name to Workhorse Group Incorporated.\nThe Company designs and builds a last-mile delivery electric vehicle. The C-Series EVs cover the larger size of commercial delivery vehicles in Classes 3-5. As part of its solutions, it also develops cloud-based, real-time telematics performance monitoring systems. It sells its vehicles to fleet customers directly and through its primary distributor, Ryder Systems. It is currently focused on bringing the C-Series electric delivery truck to market and fulfilling the existing backlog of orders.\nThe C-Series looks like a viable EV replacement for the 350,000 last-mile delivery vehicles sold in the U.S. annually. It recently announced an increased driving range from 100 miles to 160, which should open more market opportunities. It has a viable short-term go-to-market strategy selling fleets to delivery companies. It currently has test vehicles with UPS, DHL, FedEx, Amazon, and Walmart.\nWorkhorse recently lost out on the United States Postal Services Next Generation Delivery Vehicle project, however, it is in the process of challenging this decision. Additionally, its investment in Lordstown also provides an indirect investment opportunity. On November 7, 2019, the Company entered a transaction with Lordstown Motors to grant LMC a perpetual and worldwide license to certain intellectual property relating to its W-15 electric pickup truck platform and related technology in exchange for royalties, equity interest (approximately 10%) in LMC, and other considerations. This was a $320 million asset for Workhorse at the end of 2020.\nWorkhorse received a significant increase in orders in Q4/2020 but built just seven trucks in the fourth quarter due to production systems and supply chain issues. Workhorse plans to continue to take it slow, striving to build three of its composite-body battery-electric trucks a day in March with a plan to reach 10 trucks a day by the end of June. This makes its original 2021 goal of producing 1,800 trucks unlikely. It partnered with Hitachi and Hitachi Capital America (\"HCA\") to improve the Company's manufacturing, operational, and supply chain capabilities as well as to develop a national dealer network to support Workhorse's sales with vehicle financing options for both dealers and customers.\nWorkhorse has a market cap of approximately $1.9 billion. While Workhorse had ongoing revenue, unlike many other new EV companies, its revenue is still insignificant. It had a revenue of $1.4 million in 2020 and $377,000 in 2019. It has a backlog of over 8,000 vehicles but doesn't expect to be able to build many of those in 2021. It raised $270 million in capital over several financings, providing the Company with additional capital to build its backlog. It had cash of $215 million as of March 1, 2021. Because Workhorse is a traditional public company, it hasn't made long-term financial projections like SPAC-based companies.\nElectric Last Mile (FIII)\nElectric Last Mile, based in Troy Michigan, was founded by Jason Luo, former CEO of Ford China before it was acquired by China's Ningbo Joyson Electronic for $920 million in 2016, including James Taylor, former CEO of GM's Hummer brand and former CEO of electric car maker Karma Automotive. Taylor serves as the company's top executive with Luo as the company's chairman.\nThe company plans to launch a small electric delivery van (class 1-2), called the UD-1, in the third quarter of 2021, and then introduce an Urban Utility vehicle (Class 2-3) in 2022. These are expected to compete with Workhorse, Rivian, Canoo, as well as the Ford eTransit and the GMC BV1, none of which is expected to be a Class 1 vehicle.\nThe company says it has 30,000 preorders for its van, representing more than $1 billion in sales. Electric Last Miles vehicles will be based on Sokon's commercial van made in China through a joint venture with Dongfeng Automobile Co Ltd. in order to accelerate development time.\nElectric Last Mile (ELM) is expected to manufacture the vans in a former General Motors Co. Hummer plant in Mishawaka, Ind., that the company is acquiring from China's Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co. Ltd. The plant has the capacity to produce 100,000 vehicles annually with plans to build approximately 4,000 UD-1 vans by the end of 2021. The UD-1 has a starting price of $32,500 and a range of 150 miles. The battery for the vehicle is expected to be supplied by the Chinese battery company CATL.\nELM believes that it has a competitive advantage because its first vehicle, the ELM Urban Delivery, is scheduled to be available in 2021. It is based on a proven, existing platform developed and sold by Sokon Group in the Asian market, where there are 30,000 of these electric delivery vehicles driving 1.5 million miles every day. At the close of the business combination, ELM will be an independent, U.S. company producing electric vehicles in the U.S. with Sokon Group providing access to its know-how, parts supply, and field and service data.\nELM expects that the Urban Delivery vehicle will be the first electric delivery vehicle coming to market in the class 1 category (GVW of 6,000 lbs or less) in the U.S. It will also have 35% more carrying volume compared to similar ICE delivery vehicles, a critical part of the value proposition. It also anticipates that its price and greater carrying volume will allow it to take market share from the class 2 category of vehicles as well.\nIts crossover product portfolio strategy targets commercial delivery vehicles spanning from class 1 to class 3, which represents over 80% of the last mile market.\nELM anticipates $122 million in revenue in 2021, rapidly increasing to $3 billion in 2025. The price of FIII stock increased immediately following its announcement with Electric Last Mile, rising more than 40% to $14.50, but now it has dropped closer to the original deal price to $10.25 for a market cap of approximately $1.5 billion.\nGreenPower Motor Company (GP)\nGreenPower Motor Company Inc. is a Canadian battery-electric bus manufacturer with multiple models of high- and low-floor vehicles, including transit buses, school buses, and shuttles. GreenPower offers commercial vehicles for delivery, public transit, schools, vanpooling, micro-transit, shuttles, and is developing a capability of autonomous operation. It went public on August 28, 2020.\nIn 2014 GreenPower launched its first purpose-built, battery-electric bus, the EV350, 40-foot transit bus. GreenPower received its first order in 2017 for ten EV350s from the City of Porterville, California.\nGreenPower's electric buses are purpose-built and designed to be all-electric, allowing it to put the battery and propulsion system in optimized locations that provide weight and structural advantages. Its primary EV is the EV Star with more than 120 vehicles delivered. It comes in several variations:\n<ul>\n <li>EV Star - Up to 19 passengers</li>\n <li>EV Star Plus - Up to 24 passengers</li>\n <li>EV Star ADA - Passenger and curbside lift for ADA</li>\n <li>EV Star Cargo - 5,000 pounds of load</li>\n <li>EV Star Cargo Plus - 570 cubic feet of cargo space.</li>\n</ul>\nIts EV school bus seats up to 90 students and has a range of up to 150 miles.\nGreenPower had revenue of $13.5 million in 2020 It has about $21 million in cash. It's an interesting alternative since it is already shipping EVs, has revenue, and also has a lower market cap of less than $1 billion. Since it did a traditional IPO, it hasn't published longer-term financial forecasts.\nArrival (CIIC)\nArrival was founded in 2015 in London to make a variety of commercial electric vehicles. It has approximately 1,200 employees across 11 cities in 8 countries. In November 2020, Arrival and the SPAC CIIG entered into a business combination agreement with an implied valuation of $5.39 billion.\nArrival plans on releasing four commercial EVs over the next few years.\n<ul>\n <li>Q4/2021: An electric bus for 8-125 passengers and a range of 240-400km</li>\n <li>Q3/2022: An electric delivery van with a payload of 975-2,000kg and a range of 150-340km</li>\n <li>2022: A larger electric van with a payload of 4,000 kg and a range of 190-400km</li>\n <li>2023: a small vehicle platform with a range of 100-300km.</li>\n</ul>\nThis mix provides a nice diversified portfolio of EVs. Arrival claims to have received orders from UPS for 10,000 vans. It plans a unique flexible manufacturing approach using micro-factories with each projected to manufacture 10,000 vans per year. All of its vehicles use a modular skateboard electric platform.\nArrival ambitiously projects $14.1 billion in revenue in 2024. Half of that revenue is expected from delivery vans, 22% from buses, and the rest from the large van and its small vehicle platform. With CIIC's stock price at $24.80 per share, Arrival's current market cap is relatively high at approximately $15.0 billion. Justifying its market cap depends on its ability to release, sell, and produce its four commercial EVs.\nProterra (ACTC)\nProterra is a commercial electric vehicle company with over a decade of production experience. The Company has designed an end-to-end, flexible technology platform that claims to deliver higher performance and a low total cost of ownership to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end customers.\nProterra, Inc., was originally founded in Golden, Colorado, by Dale Hill in 2004. Later the company wanted to take the lead in creating zero-emission, U.S.-based transit buses. In 2010 it moved its manufacturing plant from Golden, Colorado to Greenville, South Carolina. In 2015, Proterra was awarded a $3 million grant from the California Energy Commission to fund the design, development, and construction of the company's battery-electric transit bus manufacturing line in the City of Industry, California. It moved its headquarters from Greenville, South Carolina, to Burlingame, California, in October 2015. Proterra raised more than $600 million in funding.\nIt is going public through the SPAC ArcLight (ACTC) with a pro forma valuation of $1.6 billion. Upon completion of the transaction, Proterra expects to have up to $825 million in cash to fund growth initiatives, including R&amp;D and the expansion of its next-generation battery program.\nProterra has three complementary businesses:\n<ul>\n <li>Proterra Powered: Delivering battery systems and electrification solutions to commercial vehicle manufacturers</li>\n <li>Proterra Transit:Providing an electric transit bus OEMs</li>\n <li>Proterra Energy:Offering turnkey charging and energy management solutions.</li>\n</ul>\nThe company's battery systems have been proven in more than 16 million service miles driven by its fleet of transit vehicles and validated through partnerships with commercial vehicle OEMs. Proterra has produced and delivered more than 300 megawatt-hours of battery systems, more than 550 heavy-duty electric transit buses, and installed 54 megawatts of charging systems.\nProterra expected $193 million of revenue in 2020, with an estimated $750 million in existing orders and backlog. It projects $2.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with about 1/3 coming from its Transit business, and 2/3 From Powered &amp; Energy. At ACTC's current stock price of $17.85, Proterra has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nRivian\nRivian (see earlier description in consumer retail) will also compete in the commercial delivery market. It has been working with Amazon (a major investor) to build large electric delivery vans for Prime. Developed specifically for Amazon, a small fleet of Prime vans is on the road now, testing deliveries to customers and gathering feedback. In late fall, it could grow to a large fleet as Rivian ramps up the volume.\nThe EV range of 150 miles is tailored to Amazon's use cycle to optimize the size, weight, and cost of the commercial vehicle. Rivian has three sizes of batteries, but Amazon is starting with just one of them.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nSee the previous summary under consumer retail EV.\nMedium and Long-Haul Trucking EV Companies\nCompanies developing medium- and long-haul EV trucks face a more difficult challenge with battery range. These trucks haul much more weight than commercial delivery vehicles and because they are designed for long distances, they can't stop every 200-300 miles for recharging.\nFor this reason, many of these companies are using unique hybrid technologies for their trucks. The EV trucks in this category are primarily heavy-duty but also include some medium-duty trucks and specialty vehicles. A couple of the companies focus on retrofitting trucks to be electric.\nMedium-Duty Trucks\nThe medium-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 4, 5, and 6:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 6: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 19,501-26,000 pounds or 8,846-11,793 kilograms.1</li>\n</ul>\nHeavy-Duty Trucks\nThe heavy-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 7 and 8:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 7: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 26,001 to 33,000 pounds or 11,794-14,969 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 8: This class of trucks has a GVWR of greater than 33,001 pounds or 14,969 kilograms and includes all tractor-trailers.</li>\n</ul>\nThe Tesla Semi is a battery vehicle planned for a range of 300 or 500 miles and a speed of 60 MPH with 80,000 lbs of cargo. Tesla plans to start shipping the Semi later this year when it expects to have sufficient cell volume to meet its needs with the production of its 4680 battery pack.\nNikola(NASDAQ:NKLA)\nNikola has been a very controversial company. Founded in 2015, it originally had two different strategies. Its primary strategy is to lease fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) Class-8 heavy trucks and provide the refueling infrastructure to corporate customers. Its second strategy was to develop the Badger EV truck using GM technology.\nNikola originally merged with a SPAC to go public, at an enterprise value of approximately $3.3 billion. On June 6th, 2020, its market cap jumped to more than $30 billion, then later it dropped because of problems with its originally planned deal with GM.\nNikola originally expected a deal with General Motors that included the production of the Nikola Badger EV pickup truck. The proposed arrangement was that GM would take a $2 billion equity stake in Nikola and in return would engineer and produce the Badger. In November 2020, GM and Nikola scrapped the original arrangement. Now it appears that GM will supply Nikola with only its Hydrotec hydrogen fuel-cell technology to integrate into the EV manufacturer's commercial class 7 and class 8 zero-emission semi-trucks. So, the Badger is probably dead.\nNikola now sees semi-trucks as the company's \"core business\" and fuel cells as an increasingly important segment of the semi-truck market thanks to their efficiency in weight and consumption. It expects to begin testing by the end of 2021.\nIt has received pre-orders from Anheuser-Busch and a few other companies, but it doesn't expect deliveries until 2023. Hydrogen fueling stations are key to its strategy, both providing a source of revenue and necessary fueling infrastructure for the trucks to operate, but they also cost a lot. In its March 2020 investor deck, Nikola said a single station capable of fueling 210 trucks a day would cost $16.6 million. Its initial planned network of 700 stations would cost roughly $11.6 billion.\nNikola was also accused of misrepresentation, and its executive chairman and founder stepped down.\nAt the time of the SPAC merger, it projected an optimistic forecast of more than $3 billion in revenue by 2024, with a net income of $145 million. Most of that revenue was expected to come from its Badger truck, which is no longer in the plans. Yet its market cap is still almost $6 billion.\nHyliion (HYLN)\nHyliion, founded in 2015 in Austin, went public in October 2020 through the SPAC Tortoise Acquisition Corp. (SHLL). In March 2019, automotive parts manufacturer Dana Inc. made an equity investment into Hyliion, and together they are manufacturing and marketing Class 8 EVs to Dana's customers, including Volvo, Navistar, and Peterbilt.\nHyliion's strategy is unique, and a very different strategy from Nikola. Essentially it generates electricity onboard the truck using compressed natural gas (CNG). This should be a benefit for longer-range trucking. Hyliion's Hypertruck concept involves an all-electric drivetrain utilizing Dana's electric motor, inverter, and axle technologies. The truck's batteries are fueled by onboard tanks of CNG. With some 700 CNG stations already operating nationwide, it believes that there no need to build out expensive superchargers or hydrogen infrastructure.\nKuwait-based logistics company, Agility, has already placed an order for 1,000 Hypertrucks with initial deliveries targeted in 2022. Combined with a fully electric drivetrain and a natural gas-powered onboard generator to recharge the battery, the Hypertruck ERX will provide more than 1,000 miles of range.\nHyliion will eventually compete with Nikola (FCEV) and the Tesla battery-based Semi, but it plans to have a longer range and lower operating costs. Its HyperTruck ERX is expected to be available in 2021. It also has a hybrid-electric truck.\nThe combination with SHLL had an estimated market cap of about $1.5 billion, with approximately $530 million going to the company, including a $325 million fully committed PIPE. At approximately $13.50 per share, its current market cap is approximately $2.2 billion, significantly down from its peak. Hyliion projects $2 billion in revenue in 2024, which it claims is only about 2% of the addressable market.\nXL Fleet (XL)\nXL Fleet is a 10-year old company that went public through the SPAC Pivotal. XL is different because it provides fleet electrification modifications for ICE trucks across a wide range of vehicle classes (class 2-5) and types. It has over 200 of the largest commercial and municipal fleets as customers, with more than 3,200 XL systems deployed and over 130 million miles driven by customers to date. XL's customer base includes FedEx, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Verizon, the City of Boston, Seattle Fire Department, Yale University, and Harvard University.\nXL's business model is essentially retrofitting existing trucks to be hybrids and then later expanding into fully electric truck conversions. It claims to be creating a fully integrated platform for this. It remains to be seen if the retrofitting business will continue to grow or will it diminish when more trucks are designed and manufactured with EV capabilities.\nUnlike some other EV companies that have no revenue yet because they are still developing products, XL is more of a small company doing low-volume retrofits. It had $7.2 million in revenue in 2019, $21 million in 2020, and estimates $76 million in 2021, but it forecasts $1.3 billion in revenue in 2024 in its investor presentation. It plans to do this by expanding its product line from hybrid to plug-in hybrid to fully electric across a broader range of trucks. It claims to have a $220 million sales pipeline for the next 12 months.\nShort-seller, Muddy Waters, claimed after talking to former XL Fleet employees, that it believed the company significantly exaggerated its order backlog, that the return on investment for the company's products was likely negative, and that it would not be able to compete with big car makers on electrification. The company thoroughly refuted these claims.\nThe original enterprise valuation was approximately $1.4 billion at a $10 share price for the merger. Its price jumped by about 35% but has since gone back down to $12.40 for a market cap of about $1.8 billion. Although XL Fleet has revenue and other EV companies don't, this may not be an advantage. It appears to be a small company for many years that has gone public at a high valuation with grand plans. The risks are in its ability to make a jump from $76 million in 2021 to $1.3 billion in 2024, as well as the question about retrofitting being replaced by new EV trucks by then.\nXos (NGAC)\nXos Trucks specializes in the field of manufacturing fully electric commercial vehicles. It features a software platform that is designed to accommodate an extensive variety of medium-duty bodies, wheelbase, and range requirements up to 200 miles. It was founded in 2016 and headquartered in North Hollywood, California. It received $20 million of investment in 2020 and now is going public through a merger with the SPAC ExtGen Acquisition Corporation (NGAC) at an estimated proforma value of $1.965 billion.\nIts focus is on medium- and heavy-duty last mile and return-to-base segments (class 5/6, class 6/7, and class 7/8) commercial fleets and specialty vehicles. Some vehicles are currently in production and in regular on-road operations with key fleet customers, and it claimed 6,000 unit orders in backlog.\nIts MD-platform is for classes 5-6 for pickup and delivery. Its HD X-Platform is an adaptable chassis for highway, vocational, and severe work conditions. Its market is for customers with highly predictable routes that allow for batteries designed for a more limited range. A significantly larger frame and smaller battery pack allow for reduced density.\nXos has a bundled all-in-one offering that allows fleets to access all the tools and services they need to go electric with a single point of contact at a fixed monthly expense.\nXos had $3 million in revenue in 2020 and estimates $14 million in 2021. However, it forecasts $5.2 billion in revenue in 2025. At the current stock price of $10.30, its market cap is approximately $2 billion, about the same as its original SPAC transaction.\nLion Electric (NGA)\nLion Electric is a Canadian company founded by Marc Bédard in 2008. Its focus is to be a leader in designing, developing, and manufacturing purpose-built urban electric vehicles; vehicles that are specifically designed as delivery trucks, refuse trucks, bucket trucks, moving trucks, school buses, and shuttle buses. It has over 300 all-electric vehicles on the road today.\nIn November 2020, it announced that it was going public through the SPAC NGA. The transaction had an estimated pro forma enterprise value of $1.5 billion.\nIt plans on seven new truck models and one new school bus, for a total of 15 all-electric vehicles, representing a full line-up from class 5 to class 8 electric trucks and a full line-up of electric school buses. Its vehicles are produced at its existing manufacturing plant, which has the capacity for the production of up to 2,500 vehicles per year. It intends to open a new plant in the U.S. capable of delivering over 20,000 Lion trucks and buses per year by 2022.\nIts all-electric class 6 and class 8 commercial urban trucks combine power, comfort, and modern technology. Custom-built chassis and cabin designed specifically for an all-electric heavy-duty vehicle. The LionC is an all-electric Type C school bus manufactured in North America. The body and chassis were specifically designed to deliver optimal performance. The LionM is an all-electric midi/minibus that meets paratransit and public transportation requirements. Created and designed specifically for the paratransit market, the is spacious and offers unique features that provide enhanced security and accessibility to the end-users.\nLion Electric had $29 million in revenue in 2020 and expects $204 million in 2021. It forecasts revenue to jump to $3.6 billion a few years later in 2024. Its current market cap is approximately $3.6 billion based on its current stock price of $18.33.\nLightning eMotors (GIK)\nLightning eMotors, formerly Lightning Systems, was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Loveland, Colorado. It provides fleet electrification for familiar commercial vehicle platforms by retrofitting them with its electric powertrains. Lightning eMotors produces electric fleet medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including delivery trucks, shuttle buses, passenger vans, ambulances, bucket trucks, chassis-cab models, and city transit buses. It focuses on urban commercial zero-emission vehicles with a full range of class 3 through class 7 battery-electric and fuel-cell electric vehicles.\nLighting eMotors helps commercial fleets achieve their sustainability goals by offering zero-emission battery-electric vans, trucks, and buses based on familiar, proven vehicles from manufacturers such as Ford and GM. It works with customers, to help them identify their unique commercial electric vehicle, charging, and grant support needs.\nThe Lightning products include integrated all-electric powertrains for the Ford Transit 350HD passenger and cargo vans, Ford E-450 shuttle bus and cutaway models, Ford F-59 step/food van, Ford F-550 cargo trucks and buses, Chevrolet 6500XD Low Cab Forward model, and 30-foot, 35-foot, and 40-foot transit buses.\nLightning has 120 vehicles on the road, and 1,500 vehicles already on order from customers. In addition to making vehicles and powertrains, Lightning also provides a full suite of charging solutions for customers.\nThe deal with GIK has an enterprise value of $650 million, although there is also an Earnout of 20.0% of total pro forma shares outstanding to Lightning eMotors shareholders if the stock crosses certain price thresholds.\nAt the current price, of $11.73, GIK has a market cap of approximately $1 billion, a little more than the original transaction valuation. Similar to XL Fleet, Lightning has the risk that retrofitting may only be an interim business opportunity until more EV trucks are produced.\nPublic Chinese EV Companies\nChina will be the biggest EV market opportunity, and EV start-ups may do better there because there isn't as much entrenched competition from domestic auto companies. China is already the largest EV market in the world, with almost a million EVs sold in 2019. Its EV market represents almost half of the global EV sales volume and is much larger than the U.S. market.\nThe Chinese government has ambitions to become a global leader in new energy vehicles. Soon after the coronavirus outbreak subsided within the country, Chinese authorities announced new policies to support the auto and electric vehicle industries.\nThese Chinese companies are traded through American depository shares (ADS) that contain certain risks. There are financial reporting and transparency risks with these companies, and on top of that, the newer companies are being classified as \"emerging growth\" companies that are already exempt from certain transparency requirements set out in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Like the previous EV stock, these stocks have also been very volatile.\nIn addition to legacy auto manufacturers like BYD, there are also three Chinese EV companies that are publicly traded through American depositary shares.\nBYD Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:BYDDY)\nBYD, which means build your dreams, is the automotive subsidiary of the Chinese multinational BYD Co Ltd. It was founded in January 2003, following BYD Company's acquisition of Tsinchuan Automobile Company. The company produces automobiles, buses, electric bicycles, forklifts, rechargeable batteries, and trucks. The current model range of automobiles includes electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and petrol-engined vehicles. Thirteen years ago, on the advice of his famously skeptical lieutenant, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett made a $232 million investment in BYD, a relatively unknown Chinese car company.\nBy parlaying BYD's rechargeable battery technology into a fast-growing carmaking operation, it gained a foothold in the fledgling electric vehicle market, building longer-lasting batteries and cheaper vehicles than American and Japanese manufacturers were managing to do at the time. In BYD, Buffett and Munger believed they had found a company with a shot at one day becoming the largest player in a global automobile market that was inevitably going electric.\nBYD's start to 2021 was strong with 19,871 plug-in electric cars sold in January in China, including hybrid plug-ins. That was a big increase over 2020 but not as much as 2019.\nLI Auto (LI)\nLixiang, formerly known as Chehejia (\"Car and Home\"), was founded in 2015 and went public in the U.S. on July 30th, 2020. It is a Beijing-based electric-vehicle startup with vertically integrated manufacturing. It designs, researches, manufactures, sells, and offers services featuring a few models of electric vehicles.\nThe company's SUVs are hybrids of a sort. They use electric motors (one on the front axle and one on the rear), but those motors are powered by a combination of a 40.5kWh battery packanda 1.2-liter turbocharged engine paired to a 45-liter fuel tank and a 100kW electric generator, which generates power for the battery pack in real-time. The idea is that the car can be driven for about 100 miles on battery power alone, but it has a total range of nearly 500 miles when leveraging the combustion engine generator.\nThe Company's primary product is an SUV under its brand Li ONE. It also sells peripheral products and provides related services, such as charging stalls, vehicle internet connection services, and extended lifetime warranties. Li Auto is looking to sell a variety of SUVs built on its hybrid technology that range from around $21,000 to about $70,000. The company started shipping its first model in late 2019. It's a midsize SUV is well-appointed and has lots of touchscreens and technology. A full-size premium version is planned for release in 2022.\nDeliveries of Li ONEs were 14,464 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a 67.0% quarter-over-quarter increase and setting a new quarterly record. Deliveries for the full year 2020 reached 32,624 vehicles. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $635 million.\nLI auto went public on July 30th, 2020, raising $1.1 billion at an initial price of $15.50 per share but quickly reached almost $24. It is currently valued at approximately $37 billion at a price of approximately $25.72 per share.\nXPeng (XPEV)\nXiaopeng (XPeng) Motors is a Chinese electric vehicle and technology company that designs and manufactures smart cars. It was founded in 2015 and went public on August 27, 2020, using American depository shares, raising about $1 billion. To date, it has raised about $2.6 billion.\nXPeng aims its EVs at technology-savvy middle-class Chinese consumers, with prices ranging from $22,000 to $45,000 after government subsidies. In some ways, it is a Tesla knock-off at a much lower price. XPeng started production of the G3 in November 2018, and as of July 31, 2020, delivered 18,741. It started production of the P7 and began delivery in May 2020, and as of July 31, 2020, it had delivered 1,966 EVs. The P7 has a range of more than 400 miles. It plans to launch a third Smart EV, a sedan, in 2021. The G3 was among the top-three best-selling electric SUVs in China in 2019.\nXPeng is interesting because it has a platform strategy and is moving aggressively into autonomous driving. It uses a platform strategy to expand product offerings by launching one Smart EV model each year to broaden the addressable market. It builds new models on two highly flexible Smart EV platforms, called David and Edward, respectively. The David platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,600 millimeters to 2,800 millimeters, and the Edward platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,800 millimeters to 3,100 millimeters. It also adopted a platform approach for software systems.\nXPeng claims to be developing an autonomous driving capability for its EVs. The P7 is the first production vehicle to feature the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Xavier system-on-a-chip (SoC) autonomous driving platform. The company's Smart Electric Platform Architecture (SEPA) runs on 2 chips - NVIDIA for the XPILOT and Qualcomm's Snapdragon™ 820A for intelligent services and infotainment, including cameras inside and outside, radars, HD-map, and ultrasonic sensors. Like Tesla, it claims it can create sufficiently-autonomous driving without lidar.\nTo enhance brand recognition and allow more people to experience its Smart EVs, it deployed a small number of Smart EVs in a ride-hailing service in Guangzhou on a trial basis, but it has no current plan to scale up a ride-hailing service.\nXpeng sees first-quarter 2021 deliveries rising 450% year-over-year to 12,500 vehicles. Revenues are expected to increase 533% from a year ago. The company didn't provide bottom-line estimates for the quarter, but will likely post another net loss as it ramps up manufacturing, invests in R&amp;D, and builds out a new manufacturing plant set to open in 2022.\nXpeng reported selling 12,964 vehicles in Q4 2020, up 303% from a year ago. It delivered a total of 27,041 vehicles in 2020, up 112%. It makes the P7 sedan, a rival to the made-in-China Tesla Model 3, and the small G3 SUV.\nThe stock opened on August 27, 2020 at a price of $15 and a valuation of $11 billion, but its stock jumped more than 40% shortly after. Its current valuation is about $35 billion at a stock price of approximately $36.13 per share. It had about $300 million in revenue in 2019 with a loss of about $500 million.\nNio (NIO)\nUnlike previous companies, Nio has been a public company for some time. It originally went public in the U.S. back in September of 2018, selling IPO shares at $6.26 and raising $1 billion.\nNio's IPO was far from smooth. After going public at $6.26 per share, it traded down to nearly $1. Then in the middle of the coronavirus outbreak, Nio received a much-needed investment of $1 billion from investors, including state-backed entities.\nNio designs, jointly manufactures, and sells smart and connected premium electric vehicles, attempting to develop next-generation technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving, and artificial intelligence. Joint manufacturing means that it uses a state-owned contract manufacturer to build its cars.\nNio plans to provide customers with comprehensive, convenient, and innovative charging solutions and other user-centric services. It began deliveries of the ES8, a 7-seater high-performance premium electric SUV in China in June 2018, and its variant, the six-seater ES8, in March 2019. Nio officially launched the ES6, a 5-seater high-performance premium electric SUV, in December 2018 and began deliveries in June 2019. It officially launched the EC6, a 5-seater smart premium electric Coupe SUV, in December 2019 with deliveries in 2020.\nNio sold 17,353 EVs in Q4/2020 and 43,728 for the year. It warned a shortage in chips and batteries will force a production slowdown to 7,500 a month in Q2 from 10,000 vehicles a month in February.\nNio currently trades at more than $43 per share, including a big jump recently, for a valuation of approximately $48 billion. It had revenue of $2.3 billion in 2019 for a loss of $3.8 billion.\nSummary\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this should provide exciting new investment opportunities. However, the investment terrain is complex. There are dozens of new start-ups where the public can now invest that were previously exclusively venture capital investment opportunities. Many of these are following different roads to success. There are legacy auto manufacturers that could prosper or get destroyed in this transition. There are some exciting new EV company opportunities in China. And then there is Tesla.\nThis EV roadmap is intended to help investors explore different roads to investment by explaining the basic strategies for these EV companies. These roads can have different opportunities and risks, and the roadmap helps to frame these. Above all, valuation is an overriding risk that is highlighted throughout this article.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>New Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNew Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-19 14:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.\nLast October, I wrote a popular article providing...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车","01211":"比亚迪股份","NKLA":"Nikola Corporation","LI":"理想汽车","GP":"GreenPower Motor Company Inc.","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","GOEV":"Canoo Inc.","WKHS":"Workhorse Group, Inc.","F":"福特汽车","002594":"比亚迪","TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来","FSR":"菲斯克","HYLN":"Hyliion Holdings Corp."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1196402560","content_text":"Summary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.\nLast October, I wrote a popular article providing a roadmap for investing in electric vehicles, but since then, so much has changed: new entrants, new strategies, fluctuating valuations, etc.\nSo, I updated and greatly expanded the previous EV investment roadmap.\nThis update includes a deeper look at valuations for 23 EV companies with revenue projections, when available.\nIt also classifies these EV companies into their primary market categories and summarizes their different strategies.\n\nPhoto by Sven Loeffler/iStock via Getty Images\nMy article Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap published five months ago, was popular, and some followers have requested an update. Many new EV companies entered the market, most of them through SPACs. Valuations fluctuated wildly, and there has been a great deal of publicity around these companies.\nThis new updated EV investment roadmap is greatly expanded. In addition to updating the strategies and progress of companies previously discussed, I expanded the number of companies covered. This article also groups EV companies into their primary markets, enabling better comparisons and evaluation of market opportunities. In addition, it includes a comparative valuation chart showing every company's market cap with a comparison to projected revenue, where possible. This takes advantage (good or bad) of looking at the long-term revenue forecasts provided in SPAC mergers that public companies can't make.\nIn addition to the EV manufacturers discussed here, there are also EV investment opportunities in charging station companies, battery manufacturers, and battery materials companies. These were covered in the original roadmap and may also be updated in a later article.\nApproximately 2 million EVs were sold in 2019, and although the number declined along with all auto sales in 2020, it is forecasted to increase in 2021 and reach 8-10 million by 2025. Some forecast that EV sales will be greater than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2030, or even earlier. The automobile market appears to be moving toward a historical transformation, and exceptional investment gains can be made by anticipating new emerging industries and investing in the eventual winners of those new industries. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)are obvious examples. Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to create a new emerging industry.\nThere are also significant risks. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to be released in the next three years, which will drive rapid growth in EV sales. However, the expected sales from these new models, as well as the increasing expectations from Tesla, most likely exceed the total projected market. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the companies covered here won't exist five years from now. It reminds me of the internet bubble of the late 1990s when scores of internet-based companies went public with little or no revenue. Almost all of these failed within three years -- however, a couple, including Amazon, went on to enormous success.\nEVs provide a major new investment opportunity with high risks. To succeed, you need to have a clear EV investment roadmap.\nSo, how can you invest in this new emerging market? The EV landscape is complex and investment opportunities are varied. While Tesla is the unquestioned leader in EVs, some consider it overvalued and unlikely to show exceptional returns to new investors. The current U.S. legacy automakers are committed to introducing many new EVs in the next few years, and they have some entrenched advantages with volume manufacturing capabilities, a dealer infrastructure, and loyal customers. There are exciting new EV start-ups in the U.S. that have come public this year, mostly through Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), and there are several interesting publicly traded Chinese EV manufacturers.\nThis new roadmap for EV investment classifies companies into three primary markets segments:\n\nTheConsumer Retailsegment includes EVs sold to consumers individually, such as SUVs, pickup trucks, sedans, etc.\nTheCommercial Deliverysegment includes local delivery EV vans and trucks sold to fleets.\nTheMedium- and Long-Haul Truckingsegment includes heavier Class 4 - Class 8 trucks, as well as special industrial vehicles.\n\nIn addition, it categorizesLegacy ManufacturersandChinese EV Companies. This enables investors to evaluate investment opportunities by considering unique opportunities within each market segment.\nThere is an enormous amount of investment optimism for EVs, and retail investors have been aggressively buying into EV stocks with seemingly no regard for valuation. Then there is the additional challenge of valuing companies with no revenue, especially those coming public through SPACs. So, valuation is an important investment consideration.\nSo let's start by looking at an overview of comparative EV valuations.\nEV Investment Valuation Overview\nThe following chart summarizes valuations for 23 EV companies, including several legacy companies. For SPACs, market cap estimates are computed using the pro forma number of shares at closing, otherwise using the valuation of the SPAC prior to closing drastically underestimates the valuation, which may be misleading to novice investors. Price/Sales ratios (market cap divided by revenue) are used to compare valuations. As a benchmark, current P/S ratios vary. For example, auto and truck companies have a ratio of 2.7X. Software companies have the highest ratios of over 10X.\nIn the chart, companies that currently have revenue show current P/S ratios. Where projections are available, projected P/S ratios are computed. A note of caution, however. Many of the EV companies came public through SPACs and published their projections (which public companies cannot do), and many of these are likely to prove unrealistic.\nAll of the longer-term revenue projections come from the company (C) forecasts with a SPAC. Some of these may turn out to be accurate, not many are most likely unrealistic. Some, like Lucid, Faraday, and Arrival forecast hitting more than $10 billion in revenue in a few years, when it took Tesla more than 10. Things are different now and they might achieve these, but they could also find that it will take longer to complete development, ramp up production, and create enough customer demand. Many companies may also find that there will be significant capital requirements to achieve this type of growth, and shareholders will be diluted.\n\nTesla, the \"gold standard\" in EVs, has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, which many people believe is overvalued. Its market cap is approximately 20X 2020 revenue and 10X estimated 2022 revenue.\nTesla (TSLA)\nIn the U.S., and to a lesser extent in China, Tesla is the dominant EV provider. It has approximately 60% of the U.S. EV market and about 20% of the market in China. I own a Tesla and love it, but an investment in Tesla stock requires getting comfortable with its valuation. Tesla has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, although declining lately, which some consider still overvalued while others see upside potential.\nThe investment opportunity with Tesla is based on the expectation that it will continue to dominate the EV market, or at least maintain significant market share, despite much greater competition from the expected introduction of hundreds of new EV models in the next few years.\nThere is a great deal already published about Tesla, so I'll move on.\nLegacy Automakers\nSome people think that the legacy automakers will simply fade away. Historically, that was the case in some other industries, but it is not going to happen to most automakers. They are not standing still waiting to become obsolete. Most have aggressive strategies to replace ICE vehicles with EVs. GM plans to invest $27 billion and build and launch as many as 30 new EV models by 2025. Ford plans to invest $29 billion in EVs by 2025 and launch as many as 16 EVs in the next two years. Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY)has also committed billions to develop new EVs.\nThe competitive advantage that legacy automakers have in selling their new EVs is their dealer network. Will new EV customers prefer to continue going to their regular auto dealer to buy their new EV?\nAlmost all legacy automakers worldwide are developing and launching EVs including Volkswagen, Peugeot, Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi, Hyundai/Kia. Let's look a little more closely at GM and Ford as the leaders in the U.S.\nGeneral Motors (GM)\nGM has committed to introducing 20 new electric vehicles by 2023, including EVs across Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC, and Buick. It recently announced that it has already sold out the first-year production of its Hummer electric pickup. By mid-decade, it expects to sell a million EVs per year in its two largest markets: North America and China. As a reference point, Tesla reported deliveries of 367,500 vehicles globally in 2019.\nGM has a solid platform strategy for its EVs. It plans on building its EVs using five interchangeable drive units and three different motors from its Ultium Drive System platform. Ultium energy options range from 50 to 200 kWh, which could enable an estimated range of up to 400 miles. Most of its EVs will have 400-volt battery packs and up to 200 kW fast-charging capability while the truck platform will have 800-volt battery packs and 350 kW fast-charging capabilities.\nThe key building blocks of the Ultium battery system are large-scale, high-energy cells. Engineered in partnership with LG Energy Solutions, they use both advanced chemistry and a smart cell design that's optimized for a broad portfolio of EVs. GM engineers and scientists are actively researching and testing new elements in battery chemistry to lower costs and improve charge times. Ultium can contain either vertically- or horizontally-stacked cells to integrate into vehicle design: vertically for trucks, SUVs, and crossovers, or horizontally for cars and performance vehicles. As new chemistry is developed and becomes available, the battery management system could digitally update the modules.\nGM also has other EV opportunities with its BrightDrop commercial EV service and its Cruise subsidiary. BrightDrop will not just sell delivery EVs, it will provide an entire service platform for commercial delivery customers. Its set of electric delivery vehicles starts with the EV600 and includes the BrightDrop EP1, a pod-like electric pallet. SeeGeneral Motors' Aggressive EV/AV Strategies May Payoff Big.\nWith its highest stock price of $61.65, GM's current market cap is approximately $89 billion, increasing primarily because of its progress with EVs. This approximately 3X valuation in 2018, but still only 13% of Tesla.\nFord (F)\nFord is also investing heavily in EVs. It just introduced the Mustang Mach-E, a battery-powered crossover with sports car styling, and plans to introduce an all-electric version of its best-selling F-150 pickup later this year. Also, planned is an electric edition of the full-size Transit van, which has been popular in the commercial delivery market. Ford has confirmed plans to build a luxury Lincoln crossover on a battery-powered platform provided by Rivian. The automaker also plans to introduce two new midsize electric crossovers, one each for the Ford and Lincoln brands by 2023.\nMustang Mach-E. Source: Ford\nFord's market cap is approximately $51 billion, twice its previous market cap, and also increasing.\nConsumer Retail EV Companies\nThe consumer retail market has some unique characteristics for new EV companies. Sales are made individually, not in fleets. This diversifies the risk upon launch because only a sufficient number of customers need to be attracted to the new EV. A wave of popularity can provide terrific momentum.\nHowever, the lack of a dealer network can be an impediment. Selling EVs directly to consumers instead of through dealers is prohibited in most states. By law, auto manufacturers can't compete with franchised dealers. These are laws that go back many decades to protect dealers. This can be a major impediment for new companies without established independent dealer franchises. So, new AV companies. like Tesla, need to sell their vehicles online. Tesla has successfully done this, but it took a lot of work and time. Lack of a dealer network also creates impediments in service.\nIn addition, over the next 4-5 years, autonomous capabilities will be increasingly important to luxury vehicles. This may prove to be a challenge to start-up EV companies because they can't afford to develop this technology.\nLet's look closer at the alternative consumer retail EV investments.\nLucid Motors (CCIV)\nLucid was founded in 2007 under the name Atieva and originally focused on building electric vehicle batteries and powertrains for other vehicle manufacturers. The company rebranded itself as Lucid Motors in October 2016 and shifted its strategy to develop an all-electric, high-performance, luxury vehicle. Shortly after that, it encountered financial difficulties and struggled to get short-term funding. In 2018 it raised more than $1 billion in investment, primarily from Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund, and gave up a majority of the company.\nLucid Motors reached an agreement to become a publicly-traded company through a merger with the SPAC Churchill Capital IV Corp., in one of the largest deals SPAC EV deals. The combined company, in which Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund will continue to be the largest shareholder, had a transaction equity value of $11.75 billion (for $10/share). At the same time, it closed a PIPE investment priced at $15 a share, giving it an implied pro forma equity value of $24 billion. Rumors about this deal circulated before the transaction was formally announced, making it one of the most anticipated SPAC deals. The hype and speculation drove up the stock price of Churchill Capital IV Corp. from its opening price of $10 a share to almost $60. I believe that some of this may have been driven by novice SPAC investors who didn't realize that the valuation of CCIV didn't include the eventual valuation of Lucid. The share price dropped more than 30% after the details of the deal were announced. It's also likely that Lucid renegotiated the terms of the merger based on the price jump.\nThe company's first product is the Lucid Air, a well-equipped luxury electric vehicle that features 406 miles of projected range and 480 horsepower with a starting price of $77,400, or $69,900 after the U.S. Federal Tax Credit of $7,500. This new Lucid Air model is positioned as a high-performance, ultra-efficient luxury EV sedan in a line of future vehicles that are expected to include Lucid Air Touring, Grand Touring, and Dream Edition versions.\nThe company plans to begin production and deliveries of the Lucid Air in North America in the second half of 2021. Previously the company aimed to begin deliveries earlier in 2021. It intends to sell the car in Europe in 2022, followed by China in 2023. Lucid vehicles will be produced at its new factory in Casa Grande, Arizona. The company plans to expand the factory in phases in the coming years to have the capacity to produce 365,000 units per year at scale. The initial phase of the $700 million factory construction was completed late last year and will have the capacity to produce 30,000 vehicles a year.\nLucid also apparently has a commitment to build an assembly plant in Saudi Arabia, which was rumored to be a condition of the $1 billion investment from the Saudi public fund. The Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund also provided $600 million in bridge financing and invested in the SPAC deal as well. So, while this assembly plant may be expensive and may not be critical, it will most likely need to happen.\nLucid has ambitious plans to achieve $14 billion in revenue in 2025, and its current stock price at $29.17, which gives it a market cap of more than $46 billion, may already reflect those ambitions. Its market cap is roughly the same as Ford.\nFisker (FSR)\nFisker, which had its origins with Fisker Automotive, is an interesting story that ended in bankruptcy. Henrik Fisker originally co-founded Fisker Automotive in 2007. He was responsible for designing many premium cars such as the Aston Martin. Subsequently, Fisker Automotive had to deal with a Tesla lawsuit against Fisker Automotive alleging it stole Tesla's technology, a controversial $528.7 million conditional loan from the Department of Energy, a recall of its battery produced by A123, and the loss of several hundred vehicles in hurricane Sandy. Henrik Fisker resigned in March 2013 because of disagreements over business strategy and in November 2013, Fisker filed its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case.\nHowever, Henrik Fisker retained the Fisker brand and trademarks, and in 2016 he started another electric vehicle company named Fisker Inc. with the Fisker brand and trademarks. In 2019, Fisker shifted from developing a sports car with a solid-state battery to the Ocean SUV featuring a lithium-ion battery, which it later abandoned for a solid-state battery.\nFisker is positioning itself in a unique segment for those who want the most environmentally friendly EV. While this may be an early growth segment for EVs, it's difficult to estimate its eventual competitive advantage and the size of this environmentally-friendly market segment.\nThe Ocean is a crossover made of recycled metal and plastic with an expected base price of $37,499, and an expected lease of less than $400 a month. Fisker's plan is essentially a lease-only business model that lets customers keep a vehicle for years or return it at any time. It aims to source motors, batteries, and other components from technical partnerships with automakers and will outsource production from existing auto plants. Fisker is currently taking reservations at $250 for the Ocean. It also announced an agreement with Foxconn to jointly develop a vehicle pioneering a new market segment to be sold globally under the Fisker brand commencing in Q4 2023. at the end of 2022. Production will start at Magna Steyr's manufacturing facilities in Europe. At the end of February 2021, it had 12,467 cancellable reservations.\nFisker Ocean. Source: Fisker\nFisker went public using a SPAC (Spartan Energy). The original combination with SPAQ in October 2020 was valued at $2.9 billion with a cash investment of approximately $1 billion. The stock currently trades at approximately $21 per share, after reaching a high of $28.50, from the original price of $10, which is a market cap of $4.6 billion. Fisker projects $3.3 billion in revenue in 2023. It had almost $1 billion in cash at the end of 2020 and expected to use almost half of this in 2021: $250 million on operating expenses and $250 million in capital investments. If the Ocean is delayed into 2023, Fisker risks missing its revenue objective and will potentially need additional cash to complete development and launch.\nFaraday Future (PSAC)\nFaraday Future was originally established in May 2014 by Chinese businessman Jia Yueting. It is headquartered in Los Angeles and has offices in Silicon Valley, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu. Faraday Future also had a turbulent history. In 2016, it struggled financially, and in 2017 some key executives departed over a dispute about financial issues. They later founded Canoo.\nIn December 2018 the company announced layoffs due to a cash crunch and financial troubles. The company's founder Jia Yueting filed for personal bankruptcy in the United States' federal court in Delaware on October 14, 2019. Following Jia's personal bankruptcy, he decided to step down from his role as CEO of Faraday Future in order to assume a new position as the Chief Product and User Officer. He was replaced as CEO by Carsten Breitfeld, the former CEO at rival electric vehicle startup Byton.\nSomehow, Faraday was able to raise $2.3 billion in private funding over 5 rounds from a variety of investors. In early 2018, it received $1.5 billion in funding from an undisclosed investor from Hong Kong.\nFaraday's flagship product offering will be the FF 91, featuring 1,050 HP, 0-60 mph in less than 2.4 seconds, zero gravity seats with the largest 60-degree reclining angles, and a user experience designed to create a mobile, connected, and luxurious living space. The FF 91 is targeted to launch in 2022.\nFF 91. Source: Faraday Future\nIts strategic partners include one of China's top three OEMs and a critical Chinese city, which the company believes will help establish its presence in the Chinese vehicle market.\nFaraday Future plans several cars based on its Variable Platform Architecture. FF 91 is the first production vehicle and flagship model. Pricing will range between $120,000 and upwards of $200,000, which places it against formidable opponents. Faraday Future is already looking forward to expanding its range with a pair of smaller models named FF 81 and FF 71. The FF 81 is planned to be priced at $75,000 to 95,000 with a 2023 release. The FF 71 is planned to be priced at $45,000 to $65,000 with a planned release of 2024.\nThe Primary Manufacturing Facility for FF 91 is in Hanford, CA with contract manufacturing for future models in Gunsan, South Korea.\nFaraday Future is planning high-Level automation with a Level-3 capable system using a redundant safety architecture based on NVIDIA Xavier System-on-a-chip. It will be capable of highway auto-drive and hardware ready for advanced auto-drive. It is targeting full autonomous valet parking & summon in any parking lot or structure. Eventually, it expects full auto-drive, including full 360˚ sensor coverage for advanced auto-drive & auto-park features.\nIn January 2021, Faraday Future announced that the company would go public through a reverse merger with the special purpose acquisition company Property Solutions Acquisition Corp. (PSAC). The combined company will be valued at $3.4 billion. Faraday Future is expected to set up contract manufacturing operations in China through their partnership with Geely. Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn is also expected to serve as an additional strategic partner.\nFaraday Future projects $10.5 billion in revenue in 2024 and $21.5 billion in 2025. Revenue is expected to start in 2022 with the delivery of 2,400 vehicles for $504 million. Most likely these projections could prove to be optimistic. At a current stock price of approximately $12.80, it has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nLordstown Motors (RIDE)\nLordstown Motors based in Lordstown, Ohio, was originally founded in 2018 by Steve Burns, the former CEO of Workhorse Group. The company licensed technology from Workhorse in return for royalties and a 10% ownership. Lordstown is named after the famous GM Lordstown manufacturing plant, which it acquired in November 2019 in an unusual transaction. GM announced that it was closing the plant and was under a great deal of pressure for that decision. So, GM \"sold\" the plant to a company that was renamed Lordstown for an estimated $20 million that it loaned to the acquiring company. Subsequently, the sale was redefined to be part of a $75 million investment by GM, of which $50 million was an in-kind exchange for the plant.\nLordstown went public through the SPAC DiamondPeak Holdings Corp. in 2020. It currently has more than 400 employees.\nIts first product is the Lordstown Endurance, a full-sized EV pickup truck. Lordstown is positioning Endurance for the pickup fleet market segment. The expected price is $52,000+, and it claimed to have more than 100,000 pre-orders by January 2021. However, a recent research article published by a short seller claimed \"Our research has revealed that Lordstown's order book consists of fake or entirely non-binding orders, from customers that generally do not even have fleets of vehicles.\" Lordstown is disputing that article.\nIt believes the fleet pickup market segment is underserved with no current EV-focused competition. It estimates that the full-sized pick-up truck fleet market is 1.2 million vehicles per year in the U.S., but it's more fragmented than other truck fleets. Pickup \"fleets\" tend to be much smaller and local, so there may not be much of a market distinction for a small company buying several EV pickups from a traditional auto dealer. About half of the total U.S. pickup market is classified as fleet sales, meaning more than one.\nEven though Lordstown is targeting the commercial fleet market, it is a similar product to the Ford EV F-150. So I classify it in the consumer EV category. It is a class 2 vehicle. Lordstown also may enter the SUV market in the longer-term.\nThe Endurance will compete against future models from Rivian and Tesla, as well as Ford and GM in ICE pick-ups and their upcoming EV pick-ups. Ford plans on selling its EV F-150 in mid-2022. Initial production of the Endurance is expected in the second half of 2021, so it may have a short market advantage. Nevertheless, it forecasts selling 65,000 vehicles in 2023 and 107,000 in 2024. These estimates could be a large percentage of the EV pick-up market in those years.\nAt the SPAC merger, the implied valuation for Lordstown was $1.6 billion, including a $500 million PIPE and the $75 million by GM. Lordstown's financial projections appear to be aggressive. It projects to start shipping the Endurance in late 2021 with projected revenue in 2022 of $1.7 billion, increasing to $5.8 billion in 2024. Its stock price at approximately $13.60 values the company at a market cap of approximately $2.2 billion. The value of the company depends on the likelihood of achieving its projections.\nA fleet sales strategy makes sense for Lordstown since it would be too expensive to build a retail sales and service capability. However, it's not clear that this will become a distinct competitive advantage. Some small fleets may still prefer to buy their EV pickups from established local dealers with service capabilities.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nCanoo started as Evelozcity in 2017 and rebranded as Canoo in the spring of 2019. Canoo is a Los Angeles-based company that develops electric vehicles. It has over 350 employees. Canoo has designed a modular electric platform purpose-built to deliver maximum vehicle interior space, which is adaptable to support a wide range of vehicle applications for consumers and businesses. Canoo expects to launch its first consumer model in 2022, simply named the Canoo that will be available by subscription, followed shortly after by a multi-purpose delivery vehicle and a sports vehicle, each built off of the same underlying platform. Canoo went public using a SPAC (Hennessy Capital Acquisition) and now trades as GOEV.\nCanoo's all-electric skateboard-like platform is designed to support both consumer retail and commercial vehicle configurations. The EV leverages Canoo's flat skateboard architecture for a high level of usable interior space. Its commercial vehicle program, expected in 2023, addresses a projected $50B+ last-mile delivery market with an EV platform that maximizes cargo volume.\nHyundai Motor Group said it would jointly develop an electric vehicle platform with the company.\nCanoo's platform strategy is interesting. It could be used as an EV platform for custom fleets of delivery vehicles. It has no AV development, but it claims to be \"AV Ready\" which could be useful for AV companies wanting to build custom AV delivery fleets.\nIts all-electric multi-purpose delivery vehicle is expected to be priced starting at approximately $33,000. It is based on Canoo's proprietary electric platform and will be offered in two initial size variants, with others to follow. Limited availability will begin in 2022, with scaled production and launch planned for 2023. Customers can pre-order the multi-purpose delivery vehicle for a refundable deposit of $100 per vehicle\nIt plans to offer two multi-purpose delivery vehicles: the MPDV1 and the larger MPDV2. The first has a 200-foot cargo volume and a range of 130-200 miles. It offers more capacity than today's ICE delivery vehicles at an affordable price with urban mobility enabled by a space-efficient footprint. The vehicle is also designed to fit within many height-restricted areas like parking garages.\nThe MPDV2 has a cargo volume of 450 feet and a range of 90-190 miles. Its roof and step-in height enable individuals to easily walk-in the vehicle and accommodate a standing position while inside.\nThe original SPAC transaction provided approximately $600 million, with a pro forma equity value of approximately $2.4 billion. Like other SPAC mergers, its stock price has fluctuated. It currently trades at about $15.90 per share for a market cap of approximately $3.7 billion. Canoo projects $2.0 billion in revenue in 2025 from about $500 million in engineering services, $1.2 billion from its consumer vehicle subscriptions, and the remainder from its commercial program. Canoo expects revenue of more than $300 million in 2022 after the launch of its lifestyle consumer vehicle.\nSince its first products are aimed at consumers, as is most of its forecasted 2025 revenue, I categorize it primarily as a consumer EV company. However, I think the design of that Canoo vehicle may not attract enough customers. More importantly, its subscription service way of selling its EV to consumers is risky. I think it has more potential in the commercial market, however, a dual strategy (consumer and commercial) is challenging. I like its skateboard platform design and that could prove to be a competitive advantage.\nRivian\nAlthough not yet public, I include Rivian because it has plans for an IPO as soon as Sept 2021, although it could slip into 2022. There are rumors that the company is targeting a market valuation of approximately $50B. Rivian has already raised more than $8 billion to date from Amazon, Ford, T. Rowe Price, and others.\nRivian has developed and vertically integrated a connected electric platform that can be flexibly applied to a range of applications, including the company's adventure products, as well as B2B products such as the Amazon last-mile delivery vans. The company's initial products, the R1T and R1S, provide a combination of performance, off-road capability, and utility. These vehicles will be produced at Rivian's manufacturing plant in Normal, Ill., with customer deliveries expected to begin in summer 2021. The launch of the R1S three-row electric SUV will follow in August.\nAdditional lower-priced models are being planned. The expected R2 series would include at least two smaller electric vehicles to coincide with the smaller platform, then another platform for R3.\nCommercial Delivery EV Companies\nEV truck companies differ based on the type of truck they are developing. The technology and markets are very different, so I separate them into two categories. The first category includes commercial delivery vehicles.\nCompanies making EV delivery vehicles have some major advantages that could make them good investments. First, delivery vehicles typically travel less than 250 miles during a day, so they can be conveniently recharged overnight. Secondly, they are typically sold in large quantities to fleets. This means that building a retail sales infrastructure is not necessary. It only requires a small salesforce. In addition, maintenance can also be provided at the fleet's operational center, so not as many service centers are required.\nThe disadvantage in this market is that there are a relatively small number of customers that buy in large volumes, so if the EV manufacturer can't get enough large customers, they may not be able to stay in business. GM estimates the combined market opportunity for parcel and food delivery, as well as reverse logistics, in the U.S. will be more than $850 billion by 2025.\nThe commercial market is expected to be a major growth area for EVs. Other start-up automakers like Rivian as well as legacy automakers such as Ford, Daimler, and GM have announced plans to enter the segment. GM recently announced its BrightDrop ecosystem for commercial customers that includes an all-new electric delivery van, the EV600 available by the end of 2021, as well as an integrated autonomous pallet and related services.\nThis group of EV companies focuses primarily on commercial delivery. In general, these are in the light-duty trucks category, although it also includes some medium-duty trucks. This generally includes the following commercial truck classes:\n\nClass 1: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 0-6,000 pounds or 0-2,722 kilograms.\nClass 2: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 6,001-10,000 pounds or 2,722-4,536 kilograms.1\nClass 3: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 10,001-14,000 pounds or 4,536-6,350 kilograms.\n\nIt can also include somewhat larger medium-duty EV delivery trucks:\n\nClass 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.\nClass 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.\n\nEV delivery trucks also have an advantage over ICE vehicles because they can have a greater delivery storage space. Smaller buses and transit vehicles are also included in this category.\nLast-mile package delivery is not an immediate-term autonomous vehicle opportunity because it requires a delivery person to be on the truck anyway.\nWorkhorse Group (WKHS)\nWorkhorse has been a public company for ten years. Originally AMP Electric Vehicles, it was established in 2007 as a developmental-stage vehicle electrification company, focusing on conversions. AMP Electric Vehicles went public in 2010 trading on the OTC market under the AMPD symbol. When the economic benefits of conversion became less certain, it pivoted away from passenger vehicles and began to focus on electrifying commercial vehicles. AMP acquired the Workhorse brand and the Workhorse custom chassis assembly plant in Union City. In March of 2013, AMP formally changed its name to Workhorse Group Incorporated.\nThe Company designs and builds a last-mile delivery electric vehicle. The C-Series EVs cover the larger size of commercial delivery vehicles in Classes 3-5. As part of its solutions, it also develops cloud-based, real-time telematics performance monitoring systems. It sells its vehicles to fleet customers directly and through its primary distributor, Ryder Systems. It is currently focused on bringing the C-Series electric delivery truck to market and fulfilling the existing backlog of orders.\nThe C-Series looks like a viable EV replacement for the 350,000 last-mile delivery vehicles sold in the U.S. annually. It recently announced an increased driving range from 100 miles to 160, which should open more market opportunities. It has a viable short-term go-to-market strategy selling fleets to delivery companies. It currently has test vehicles with UPS, DHL, FedEx, Amazon, and Walmart.\nWorkhorse recently lost out on the United States Postal Services Next Generation Delivery Vehicle project, however, it is in the process of challenging this decision. Additionally, its investment in Lordstown also provides an indirect investment opportunity. On November 7, 2019, the Company entered a transaction with Lordstown Motors to grant LMC a perpetual and worldwide license to certain intellectual property relating to its W-15 electric pickup truck platform and related technology in exchange for royalties, equity interest (approximately 10%) in LMC, and other considerations. This was a $320 million asset for Workhorse at the end of 2020.\nWorkhorse received a significant increase in orders in Q4/2020 but built just seven trucks in the fourth quarter due to production systems and supply chain issues. Workhorse plans to continue to take it slow, striving to build three of its composite-body battery-electric trucks a day in March with a plan to reach 10 trucks a day by the end of June. This makes its original 2021 goal of producing 1,800 trucks unlikely. It partnered with Hitachi and Hitachi Capital America (\"HCA\") to improve the Company's manufacturing, operational, and supply chain capabilities as well as to develop a national dealer network to support Workhorse's sales with vehicle financing options for both dealers and customers.\nWorkhorse has a market cap of approximately $1.9 billion. While Workhorse had ongoing revenue, unlike many other new EV companies, its revenue is still insignificant. It had a revenue of $1.4 million in 2020 and $377,000 in 2019. It has a backlog of over 8,000 vehicles but doesn't expect to be able to build many of those in 2021. It raised $270 million in capital over several financings, providing the Company with additional capital to build its backlog. It had cash of $215 million as of March 1, 2021. Because Workhorse is a traditional public company, it hasn't made long-term financial projections like SPAC-based companies.\nElectric Last Mile (FIII)\nElectric Last Mile, based in Troy Michigan, was founded by Jason Luo, former CEO of Ford China before it was acquired by China's Ningbo Joyson Electronic for $920 million in 2016, including James Taylor, former CEO of GM's Hummer brand and former CEO of electric car maker Karma Automotive. Taylor serves as the company's top executive with Luo as the company's chairman.\nThe company plans to launch a small electric delivery van (class 1-2), called the UD-1, in the third quarter of 2021, and then introduce an Urban Utility vehicle (Class 2-3) in 2022. These are expected to compete with Workhorse, Rivian, Canoo, as well as the Ford eTransit and the GMC BV1, none of which is expected to be a Class 1 vehicle.\nThe company says it has 30,000 preorders for its van, representing more than $1 billion in sales. Electric Last Miles vehicles will be based on Sokon's commercial van made in China through a joint venture with Dongfeng Automobile Co Ltd. in order to accelerate development time.\nElectric Last Mile (ELM) is expected to manufacture the vans in a former General Motors Co. Hummer plant in Mishawaka, Ind., that the company is acquiring from China's Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co. Ltd. The plant has the capacity to produce 100,000 vehicles annually with plans to build approximately 4,000 UD-1 vans by the end of 2021. The UD-1 has a starting price of $32,500 and a range of 150 miles. The battery for the vehicle is expected to be supplied by the Chinese battery company CATL.\nELM believes that it has a competitive advantage because its first vehicle, the ELM Urban Delivery, is scheduled to be available in 2021. It is based on a proven, existing platform developed and sold by Sokon Group in the Asian market, where there are 30,000 of these electric delivery vehicles driving 1.5 million miles every day. At the close of the business combination, ELM will be an independent, U.S. company producing electric vehicles in the U.S. with Sokon Group providing access to its know-how, parts supply, and field and service data.\nELM expects that the Urban Delivery vehicle will be the first electric delivery vehicle coming to market in the class 1 category (GVW of 6,000 lbs or less) in the U.S. It will also have 35% more carrying volume compared to similar ICE delivery vehicles, a critical part of the value proposition. It also anticipates that its price and greater carrying volume will allow it to take market share from the class 2 category of vehicles as well.\nIts crossover product portfolio strategy targets commercial delivery vehicles spanning from class 1 to class 3, which represents over 80% of the last mile market.\nELM anticipates $122 million in revenue in 2021, rapidly increasing to $3 billion in 2025. The price of FIII stock increased immediately following its announcement with Electric Last Mile, rising more than 40% to $14.50, but now it has dropped closer to the original deal price to $10.25 for a market cap of approximately $1.5 billion.\nGreenPower Motor Company (GP)\nGreenPower Motor Company Inc. is a Canadian battery-electric bus manufacturer with multiple models of high- and low-floor vehicles, including transit buses, school buses, and shuttles. GreenPower offers commercial vehicles for delivery, public transit, schools, vanpooling, micro-transit, shuttles, and is developing a capability of autonomous operation. It went public on August 28, 2020.\nIn 2014 GreenPower launched its first purpose-built, battery-electric bus, the EV350, 40-foot transit bus. GreenPower received its first order in 2017 for ten EV350s from the City of Porterville, California.\nGreenPower's electric buses are purpose-built and designed to be all-electric, allowing it to put the battery and propulsion system in optimized locations that provide weight and structural advantages. Its primary EV is the EV Star with more than 120 vehicles delivered. It comes in several variations:\n\nEV Star - Up to 19 passengers\nEV Star Plus - Up to 24 passengers\nEV Star ADA - Passenger and curbside lift for ADA\nEV Star Cargo - 5,000 pounds of load\nEV Star Cargo Plus - 570 cubic feet of cargo space.\n\nIts EV school bus seats up to 90 students and has a range of up to 150 miles.\nGreenPower had revenue of $13.5 million in 2020 It has about $21 million in cash. It's an interesting alternative since it is already shipping EVs, has revenue, and also has a lower market cap of less than $1 billion. Since it did a traditional IPO, it hasn't published longer-term financial forecasts.\nArrival (CIIC)\nArrival was founded in 2015 in London to make a variety of commercial electric vehicles. It has approximately 1,200 employees across 11 cities in 8 countries. In November 2020, Arrival and the SPAC CIIG entered into a business combination agreement with an implied valuation of $5.39 billion.\nArrival plans on releasing four commercial EVs over the next few years.\n\nQ4/2021: An electric bus for 8-125 passengers and a range of 240-400km\nQ3/2022: An electric delivery van with a payload of 975-2,000kg and a range of 150-340km\n2022: A larger electric van with a payload of 4,000 kg and a range of 190-400km\n2023: a small vehicle platform with a range of 100-300km.\n\nThis mix provides a nice diversified portfolio of EVs. Arrival claims to have received orders from UPS for 10,000 vans. It plans a unique flexible manufacturing approach using micro-factories with each projected to manufacture 10,000 vans per year. All of its vehicles use a modular skateboard electric platform.\nArrival ambitiously projects $14.1 billion in revenue in 2024. Half of that revenue is expected from delivery vans, 22% from buses, and the rest from the large van and its small vehicle platform. With CIIC's stock price at $24.80 per share, Arrival's current market cap is relatively high at approximately $15.0 billion. Justifying its market cap depends on its ability to release, sell, and produce its four commercial EVs.\nProterra (ACTC)\nProterra is a commercial electric vehicle company with over a decade of production experience. The Company has designed an end-to-end, flexible technology platform that claims to deliver higher performance and a low total cost of ownership to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end customers.\nProterra, Inc., was originally founded in Golden, Colorado, by Dale Hill in 2004. Later the company wanted to take the lead in creating zero-emission, U.S.-based transit buses. In 2010 it moved its manufacturing plant from Golden, Colorado to Greenville, South Carolina. In 2015, Proterra was awarded a $3 million grant from the California Energy Commission to fund the design, development, and construction of the company's battery-electric transit bus manufacturing line in the City of Industry, California. It moved its headquarters from Greenville, South Carolina, to Burlingame, California, in October 2015. Proterra raised more than $600 million in funding.\nIt is going public through the SPAC ArcLight (ACTC) with a pro forma valuation of $1.6 billion. Upon completion of the transaction, Proterra expects to have up to $825 million in cash to fund growth initiatives, including R&D and the expansion of its next-generation battery program.\nProterra has three complementary businesses:\n\nProterra Powered: Delivering battery systems and electrification solutions to commercial vehicle manufacturers\nProterra Transit:Providing an electric transit bus OEMs\nProterra Energy:Offering turnkey charging and energy management solutions.\n\nThe company's battery systems have been proven in more than 16 million service miles driven by its fleet of transit vehicles and validated through partnerships with commercial vehicle OEMs. Proterra has produced and delivered more than 300 megawatt-hours of battery systems, more than 550 heavy-duty electric transit buses, and installed 54 megawatts of charging systems.\nProterra expected $193 million of revenue in 2020, with an estimated $750 million in existing orders and backlog. It projects $2.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with about 1/3 coming from its Transit business, and 2/3 From Powered & Energy. At ACTC's current stock price of $17.85, Proterra has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nRivian\nRivian (see earlier description in consumer retail) will also compete in the commercial delivery market. It has been working with Amazon (a major investor) to build large electric delivery vans for Prime. Developed specifically for Amazon, a small fleet of Prime vans is on the road now, testing deliveries to customers and gathering feedback. In late fall, it could grow to a large fleet as Rivian ramps up the volume.\nThe EV range of 150 miles is tailored to Amazon's use cycle to optimize the size, weight, and cost of the commercial vehicle. Rivian has three sizes of batteries, but Amazon is starting with just one of them.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nSee the previous summary under consumer retail EV.\nMedium and Long-Haul Trucking EV Companies\nCompanies developing medium- and long-haul EV trucks face a more difficult challenge with battery range. These trucks haul much more weight than commercial delivery vehicles and because they are designed for long distances, they can't stop every 200-300 miles for recharging.\nFor this reason, many of these companies are using unique hybrid technologies for their trucks. The EV trucks in this category are primarily heavy-duty but also include some medium-duty trucks and specialty vehicles. A couple of the companies focus on retrofitting trucks to be electric.\nMedium-Duty Trucks\nThe medium-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 4, 5, and 6:\n\nClass 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.\nClass 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.\nClass 6: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 19,501-26,000 pounds or 8,846-11,793 kilograms.1\n\nHeavy-Duty Trucks\nThe heavy-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 7 and 8:\n\nClass 7: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 26,001 to 33,000 pounds or 11,794-14,969 kilograms.\nClass 8: This class of trucks has a GVWR of greater than 33,001 pounds or 14,969 kilograms and includes all tractor-trailers.\n\nThe Tesla Semi is a battery vehicle planned for a range of 300 or 500 miles and a speed of 60 MPH with 80,000 lbs of cargo. Tesla plans to start shipping the Semi later this year when it expects to have sufficient cell volume to meet its needs with the production of its 4680 battery pack.\nNikola(NASDAQ:NKLA)\nNikola has been a very controversial company. Founded in 2015, it originally had two different strategies. Its primary strategy is to lease fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) Class-8 heavy trucks and provide the refueling infrastructure to corporate customers. Its second strategy was to develop the Badger EV truck using GM technology.\nNikola originally merged with a SPAC to go public, at an enterprise value of approximately $3.3 billion. On June 6th, 2020, its market cap jumped to more than $30 billion, then later it dropped because of problems with its originally planned deal with GM.\nNikola originally expected a deal with General Motors that included the production of the Nikola Badger EV pickup truck. The proposed arrangement was that GM would take a $2 billion equity stake in Nikola and in return would engineer and produce the Badger. In November 2020, GM and Nikola scrapped the original arrangement. Now it appears that GM will supply Nikola with only its Hydrotec hydrogen fuel-cell technology to integrate into the EV manufacturer's commercial class 7 and class 8 zero-emission semi-trucks. So, the Badger is probably dead.\nNikola now sees semi-trucks as the company's \"core business\" and fuel cells as an increasingly important segment of the semi-truck market thanks to their efficiency in weight and consumption. It expects to begin testing by the end of 2021.\nIt has received pre-orders from Anheuser-Busch and a few other companies, but it doesn't expect deliveries until 2023. Hydrogen fueling stations are key to its strategy, both providing a source of revenue and necessary fueling infrastructure for the trucks to operate, but they also cost a lot. In its March 2020 investor deck, Nikola said a single station capable of fueling 210 trucks a day would cost $16.6 million. Its initial planned network of 700 stations would cost roughly $11.6 billion.\nNikola was also accused of misrepresentation, and its executive chairman and founder stepped down.\nAt the time of the SPAC merger, it projected an optimistic forecast of more than $3 billion in revenue by 2024, with a net income of $145 million. Most of that revenue was expected to come from its Badger truck, which is no longer in the plans. Yet its market cap is still almost $6 billion.\nHyliion (HYLN)\nHyliion, founded in 2015 in Austin, went public in October 2020 through the SPAC Tortoise Acquisition Corp. (SHLL). In March 2019, automotive parts manufacturer Dana Inc. made an equity investment into Hyliion, and together they are manufacturing and marketing Class 8 EVs to Dana's customers, including Volvo, Navistar, and Peterbilt.\nHyliion's strategy is unique, and a very different strategy from Nikola. Essentially it generates electricity onboard the truck using compressed natural gas (CNG). This should be a benefit for longer-range trucking. Hyliion's Hypertruck concept involves an all-electric drivetrain utilizing Dana's electric motor, inverter, and axle technologies. The truck's batteries are fueled by onboard tanks of CNG. With some 700 CNG stations already operating nationwide, it believes that there no need to build out expensive superchargers or hydrogen infrastructure.\nKuwait-based logistics company, Agility, has already placed an order for 1,000 Hypertrucks with initial deliveries targeted in 2022. Combined with a fully electric drivetrain and a natural gas-powered onboard generator to recharge the battery, the Hypertruck ERX will provide more than 1,000 miles of range.\nHyliion will eventually compete with Nikola (FCEV) and the Tesla battery-based Semi, but it plans to have a longer range and lower operating costs. Its HyperTruck ERX is expected to be available in 2021. It also has a hybrid-electric truck.\nThe combination with SHLL had an estimated market cap of about $1.5 billion, with approximately $530 million going to the company, including a $325 million fully committed PIPE. At approximately $13.50 per share, its current market cap is approximately $2.2 billion, significantly down from its peak. Hyliion projects $2 billion in revenue in 2024, which it claims is only about 2% of the addressable market.\nXL Fleet (XL)\nXL Fleet is a 10-year old company that went public through the SPAC Pivotal. XL is different because it provides fleet electrification modifications for ICE trucks across a wide range of vehicle classes (class 2-5) and types. It has over 200 of the largest commercial and municipal fleets as customers, with more than 3,200 XL systems deployed and over 130 million miles driven by customers to date. XL's customer base includes FedEx, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Verizon, the City of Boston, Seattle Fire Department, Yale University, and Harvard University.\nXL's business model is essentially retrofitting existing trucks to be hybrids and then later expanding into fully electric truck conversions. It claims to be creating a fully integrated platform for this. It remains to be seen if the retrofitting business will continue to grow or will it diminish when more trucks are designed and manufactured with EV capabilities.\nUnlike some other EV companies that have no revenue yet because they are still developing products, XL is more of a small company doing low-volume retrofits. It had $7.2 million in revenue in 2019, $21 million in 2020, and estimates $76 million in 2021, but it forecasts $1.3 billion in revenue in 2024 in its investor presentation. It plans to do this by expanding its product line from hybrid to plug-in hybrid to fully electric across a broader range of trucks. It claims to have a $220 million sales pipeline for the next 12 months.\nShort-seller, Muddy Waters, claimed after talking to former XL Fleet employees, that it believed the company significantly exaggerated its order backlog, that the return on investment for the company's products was likely negative, and that it would not be able to compete with big car makers on electrification. The company thoroughly refuted these claims.\nThe original enterprise valuation was approximately $1.4 billion at a $10 share price for the merger. Its price jumped by about 35% but has since gone back down to $12.40 for a market cap of about $1.8 billion. Although XL Fleet has revenue and other EV companies don't, this may not be an advantage. It appears to be a small company for many years that has gone public at a high valuation with grand plans. The risks are in its ability to make a jump from $76 million in 2021 to $1.3 billion in 2024, as well as the question about retrofitting being replaced by new EV trucks by then.\nXos (NGAC)\nXos Trucks specializes in the field of manufacturing fully electric commercial vehicles. It features a software platform that is designed to accommodate an extensive variety of medium-duty bodies, wheelbase, and range requirements up to 200 miles. It was founded in 2016 and headquartered in North Hollywood, California. It received $20 million of investment in 2020 and now is going public through a merger with the SPAC ExtGen Acquisition Corporation (NGAC) at an estimated proforma value of $1.965 billion.\nIts focus is on medium- and heavy-duty last mile and return-to-base segments (class 5/6, class 6/7, and class 7/8) commercial fleets and specialty vehicles. Some vehicles are currently in production and in regular on-road operations with key fleet customers, and it claimed 6,000 unit orders in backlog.\nIts MD-platform is for classes 5-6 for pickup and delivery. Its HD X-Platform is an adaptable chassis for highway, vocational, and severe work conditions. Its market is for customers with highly predictable routes that allow for batteries designed for a more limited range. A significantly larger frame and smaller battery pack allow for reduced density.\nXos has a bundled all-in-one offering that allows fleets to access all the tools and services they need to go electric with a single point of contact at a fixed monthly expense.\nXos had $3 million in revenue in 2020 and estimates $14 million in 2021. However, it forecasts $5.2 billion in revenue in 2025. At the current stock price of $10.30, its market cap is approximately $2 billion, about the same as its original SPAC transaction.\nLion Electric (NGA)\nLion Electric is a Canadian company founded by Marc Bédard in 2008. Its focus is to be a leader in designing, developing, and manufacturing purpose-built urban electric vehicles; vehicles that are specifically designed as delivery trucks, refuse trucks, bucket trucks, moving trucks, school buses, and shuttle buses. It has over 300 all-electric vehicles on the road today.\nIn November 2020, it announced that it was going public through the SPAC NGA. The transaction had an estimated pro forma enterprise value of $1.5 billion.\nIt plans on seven new truck models and one new school bus, for a total of 15 all-electric vehicles, representing a full line-up from class 5 to class 8 electric trucks and a full line-up of electric school buses. Its vehicles are produced at its existing manufacturing plant, which has the capacity for the production of up to 2,500 vehicles per year. It intends to open a new plant in the U.S. capable of delivering over 20,000 Lion trucks and buses per year by 2022.\nIts all-electric class 6 and class 8 commercial urban trucks combine power, comfort, and modern technology. Custom-built chassis and cabin designed specifically for an all-electric heavy-duty vehicle. The LionC is an all-electric Type C school bus manufactured in North America. The body and chassis were specifically designed to deliver optimal performance. The LionM is an all-electric midi/minibus that meets paratransit and public transportation requirements. Created and designed specifically for the paratransit market, the is spacious and offers unique features that provide enhanced security and accessibility to the end-users.\nLion Electric had $29 million in revenue in 2020 and expects $204 million in 2021. It forecasts revenue to jump to $3.6 billion a few years later in 2024. Its current market cap is approximately $3.6 billion based on its current stock price of $18.33.\nLightning eMotors (GIK)\nLightning eMotors, formerly Lightning Systems, was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Loveland, Colorado. It provides fleet electrification for familiar commercial vehicle platforms by retrofitting them with its electric powertrains. Lightning eMotors produces electric fleet medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including delivery trucks, shuttle buses, passenger vans, ambulances, bucket trucks, chassis-cab models, and city transit buses. It focuses on urban commercial zero-emission vehicles with a full range of class 3 through class 7 battery-electric and fuel-cell electric vehicles.\nLighting eMotors helps commercial fleets achieve their sustainability goals by offering zero-emission battery-electric vans, trucks, and buses based on familiar, proven vehicles from manufacturers such as Ford and GM. It works with customers, to help them identify their unique commercial electric vehicle, charging, and grant support needs.\nThe Lightning products include integrated all-electric powertrains for the Ford Transit 350HD passenger and cargo vans, Ford E-450 shuttle bus and cutaway models, Ford F-59 step/food van, Ford F-550 cargo trucks and buses, Chevrolet 6500XD Low Cab Forward model, and 30-foot, 35-foot, and 40-foot transit buses.\nLightning has 120 vehicles on the road, and 1,500 vehicles already on order from customers. In addition to making vehicles and powertrains, Lightning also provides a full suite of charging solutions for customers.\nThe deal with GIK has an enterprise value of $650 million, although there is also an Earnout of 20.0% of total pro forma shares outstanding to Lightning eMotors shareholders if the stock crosses certain price thresholds.\nAt the current price, of $11.73, GIK has a market cap of approximately $1 billion, a little more than the original transaction valuation. Similar to XL Fleet, Lightning has the risk that retrofitting may only be an interim business opportunity until more EV trucks are produced.\nPublic Chinese EV Companies\nChina will be the biggest EV market opportunity, and EV start-ups may do better there because there isn't as much entrenched competition from domestic auto companies. China is already the largest EV market in the world, with almost a million EVs sold in 2019. Its EV market represents almost half of the global EV sales volume and is much larger than the U.S. market.\nThe Chinese government has ambitions to become a global leader in new energy vehicles. Soon after the coronavirus outbreak subsided within the country, Chinese authorities announced new policies to support the auto and electric vehicle industries.\nThese Chinese companies are traded through American depository shares (ADS) that contain certain risks. There are financial reporting and transparency risks with these companies, and on top of that, the newer companies are being classified as \"emerging growth\" companies that are already exempt from certain transparency requirements set out in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Like the previous EV stock, these stocks have also been very volatile.\nIn addition to legacy auto manufacturers like BYD, there are also three Chinese EV companies that are publicly traded through American depositary shares.\nBYD Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:BYDDY)\nBYD, which means build your dreams, is the automotive subsidiary of the Chinese multinational BYD Co Ltd. It was founded in January 2003, following BYD Company's acquisition of Tsinchuan Automobile Company. The company produces automobiles, buses, electric bicycles, forklifts, rechargeable batteries, and trucks. The current model range of automobiles includes electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and petrol-engined vehicles. Thirteen years ago, on the advice of his famously skeptical lieutenant, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett made a $232 million investment in BYD, a relatively unknown Chinese car company.\nBy parlaying BYD's rechargeable battery technology into a fast-growing carmaking operation, it gained a foothold in the fledgling electric vehicle market, building longer-lasting batteries and cheaper vehicles than American and Japanese manufacturers were managing to do at the time. In BYD, Buffett and Munger believed they had found a company with a shot at one day becoming the largest player in a global automobile market that was inevitably going electric.\nBYD's start to 2021 was strong with 19,871 plug-in electric cars sold in January in China, including hybrid plug-ins. That was a big increase over 2020 but not as much as 2019.\nLI Auto (LI)\nLixiang, formerly known as Chehejia (\"Car and Home\"), was founded in 2015 and went public in the U.S. on July 30th, 2020. It is a Beijing-based electric-vehicle startup with vertically integrated manufacturing. It designs, researches, manufactures, sells, and offers services featuring a few models of electric vehicles.\nThe company's SUVs are hybrids of a sort. They use electric motors (one on the front axle and one on the rear), but those motors are powered by a combination of a 40.5kWh battery packanda 1.2-liter turbocharged engine paired to a 45-liter fuel tank and a 100kW electric generator, which generates power for the battery pack in real-time. The idea is that the car can be driven for about 100 miles on battery power alone, but it has a total range of nearly 500 miles when leveraging the combustion engine generator.\nThe Company's primary product is an SUV under its brand Li ONE. It also sells peripheral products and provides related services, such as charging stalls, vehicle internet connection services, and extended lifetime warranties. Li Auto is looking to sell a variety of SUVs built on its hybrid technology that range from around $21,000 to about $70,000. The company started shipping its first model in late 2019. It's a midsize SUV is well-appointed and has lots of touchscreens and technology. A full-size premium version is planned for release in 2022.\nDeliveries of Li ONEs were 14,464 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a 67.0% quarter-over-quarter increase and setting a new quarterly record. Deliveries for the full year 2020 reached 32,624 vehicles. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $635 million.\nLI auto went public on July 30th, 2020, raising $1.1 billion at an initial price of $15.50 per share but quickly reached almost $24. It is currently valued at approximately $37 billion at a price of approximately $25.72 per share.\nXPeng (XPEV)\nXiaopeng (XPeng) Motors is a Chinese electric vehicle and technology company that designs and manufactures smart cars. It was founded in 2015 and went public on August 27, 2020, using American depository shares, raising about $1 billion. To date, it has raised about $2.6 billion.\nXPeng aims its EVs at technology-savvy middle-class Chinese consumers, with prices ranging from $22,000 to $45,000 after government subsidies. In some ways, it is a Tesla knock-off at a much lower price. XPeng started production of the G3 in November 2018, and as of July 31, 2020, delivered 18,741. It started production of the P7 and began delivery in May 2020, and as of July 31, 2020, it had delivered 1,966 EVs. The P7 has a range of more than 400 miles. It plans to launch a third Smart EV, a sedan, in 2021. The G3 was among the top-three best-selling electric SUVs in China in 2019.\nXPeng is interesting because it has a platform strategy and is moving aggressively into autonomous driving. It uses a platform strategy to expand product offerings by launching one Smart EV model each year to broaden the addressable market. It builds new models on two highly flexible Smart EV platforms, called David and Edward, respectively. The David platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,600 millimeters to 2,800 millimeters, and the Edward platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,800 millimeters to 3,100 millimeters. It also adopted a platform approach for software systems.\nXPeng claims to be developing an autonomous driving capability for its EVs. The P7 is the first production vehicle to feature the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Xavier system-on-a-chip (SoC) autonomous driving platform. The company's Smart Electric Platform Architecture (SEPA) runs on 2 chips - NVIDIA for the XPILOT and Qualcomm's Snapdragon™ 820A for intelligent services and infotainment, including cameras inside and outside, radars, HD-map, and ultrasonic sensors. Like Tesla, it claims it can create sufficiently-autonomous driving without lidar.\nTo enhance brand recognition and allow more people to experience its Smart EVs, it deployed a small number of Smart EVs in a ride-hailing service in Guangzhou on a trial basis, but it has no current plan to scale up a ride-hailing service.\nXpeng sees first-quarter 2021 deliveries rising 450% year-over-year to 12,500 vehicles. Revenues are expected to increase 533% from a year ago. The company didn't provide bottom-line estimates for the quarter, but will likely post another net loss as it ramps up manufacturing, invests in R&D, and builds out a new manufacturing plant set to open in 2022.\nXpeng reported selling 12,964 vehicles in Q4 2020, up 303% from a year ago. It delivered a total of 27,041 vehicles in 2020, up 112%. It makes the P7 sedan, a rival to the made-in-China Tesla Model 3, and the small G3 SUV.\nThe stock opened on August 27, 2020 at a price of $15 and a valuation of $11 billion, but its stock jumped more than 40% shortly after. Its current valuation is about $35 billion at a stock price of approximately $36.13 per share. It had about $300 million in revenue in 2019 with a loss of about $500 million.\nNio (NIO)\nUnlike previous companies, Nio has been a public company for some time. It originally went public in the U.S. back in September of 2018, selling IPO shares at $6.26 and raising $1 billion.\nNio's IPO was far from smooth. After going public at $6.26 per share, it traded down to nearly $1. Then in the middle of the coronavirus outbreak, Nio received a much-needed investment of $1 billion from investors, including state-backed entities.\nNio designs, jointly manufactures, and sells smart and connected premium electric vehicles, attempting to develop next-generation technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving, and artificial intelligence. Joint manufacturing means that it uses a state-owned contract manufacturer to build its cars.\nNio plans to provide customers with comprehensive, convenient, and innovative charging solutions and other user-centric services. It began deliveries of the ES8, a 7-seater high-performance premium electric SUV in China in June 2018, and its variant, the six-seater ES8, in March 2019. Nio officially launched the ES6, a 5-seater high-performance premium electric SUV, in December 2018 and began deliveries in June 2019. It officially launched the EC6, a 5-seater smart premium electric Coupe SUV, in December 2019 with deliveries in 2020.\nNio sold 17,353 EVs in Q4/2020 and 43,728 for the year. It warned a shortage in chips and batteries will force a production slowdown to 7,500 a month in Q2 from 10,000 vehicles a month in February.\nNio currently trades at more than $43 per share, including a big jump recently, for a valuation of approximately $48 billion. It had revenue of $2.3 billion in 2019 for a loss of $3.8 billion.\nSummary\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this should provide exciting new investment opportunities. However, the investment terrain is complex. There are dozens of new start-ups where the public can now invest that were previously exclusively venture capital investment opportunities. Many of these are following different roads to success. There are legacy auto manufacturers that could prosper or get destroyed in this transition. There are some exciting new EV company opportunities in China. And then there is Tesla.\nThis EV roadmap is intended to help investors explore different roads to investment by explaining the basic strategies for these EV companies. These roads can have different opportunities and risks, and the roadmap helps to frame these. Above all, valuation is an overriding risk that is highlighted throughout this article.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":353311141,"gmtCreate":1616460742083,"gmtModify":1704794352679,"author":{"id":"3572687000129253","authorId":"3572687000129253","name":"JX0511","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fca11db0a62c5306551d30503fb23a77","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572687000129253","authorIdStr":"3572687000129253"},"htmlText":"like my comment","listText":"like my comment","text":"like my comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353311141","repostId":1196402560,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1196402560","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616134696,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196402560?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-19 14:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"New Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196402560","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, an","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>It's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.</li>\n <li>Last October, I wrote a popular article providing a roadmap for investing in electric vehicles, but since then, so much has changed: new entrants, new strategies, fluctuating valuations, etc.</li>\n <li>So, I updated and greatly expanded the previous EV investment roadmap.</li>\n <li>This update includes a deeper look at valuations for 23 EV companies with revenue projections, when available.</li>\n <li>It also classifies these EV companies into their primary market categories and summarizes their different strategies.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb96acc615cba9c7842860658c019ab1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\">Photo by Sven Loeffler/iStock via Getty Images\nMy article&nbsp;Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap&nbsp;published five months ago, was popular, and some followers have requested an update. Many new EV companies entered the market, most of them through SPACs. Valuations fluctuated wildly, and there has been a great deal of publicity around these companies.\nThis new updated EV investment roadmap is greatly expanded. In addition to updating the strategies and progress of companies previously discussed, I expanded the number of companies covered. This article also groups EV companies into their primary markets, enabling better comparisons and evaluation of market opportunities. In addition, it includes a comparative valuation chart showing every company's market cap with a comparison to projected revenue, where possible. This takes advantage (good or bad) of looking at the long-term revenue forecasts provided in SPAC mergers that public companies can't make.\nIn addition to the EV manufacturers discussed here, there are also EV investment opportunities in charging station companies, battery manufacturers, and battery materials companies. These were covered in the original roadmap and may also be updated in a later article.\nApproximately 2 million EVs were sold in 2019, and although the number declined along with all auto sales in 2020, it is forecasted to increase in 2021 and reach 8-10 million by 2025. Some forecast that EV sales will be greater than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2030, or even earlier. The automobile market appears to be moving toward a historical transformation, and exceptional investment gains can be made by anticipating new emerging industries and investing in the eventual winners of those new industries. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)are obvious examples. Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to create a new emerging industry.\nThere are also significant risks. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to be released in the next three years, which will drive rapid growth in EV sales. However, the expected sales from these new models, as well as the increasing expectations from Tesla, most likely exceed the total projected market. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the companies covered here won't exist five years from now. It reminds me of the internet bubble of the late 1990s when scores of internet-based companies went public with little or no revenue. Almost all of these failed within three years -- however, a couple, including Amazon, went on to enormous success.\nEVs provide a major new investment opportunity with high risks. To succeed, you need to have a clear EV investment roadmap.\nSo, how can you invest in this new emerging market? The EV landscape is complex and investment opportunities are varied. While Tesla is the unquestioned leader in EVs, some consider it overvalued and unlikely to show exceptional returns to new investors. The current U.S. legacy automakers are committed to introducing many new EVs in the next few years, and they have some entrenched advantages with volume manufacturing capabilities, a dealer infrastructure, and loyal customers. There are exciting new EV start-ups in the U.S. that have come public this year, mostly through Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), and there are several interesting publicly traded Chinese EV manufacturers.\nThis new roadmap for EV investment classifies companies into three primary markets segments:\n<ul>\n <li>TheConsumer Retailsegment includes EVs sold to consumers individually, such as SUVs, pickup trucks, sedans, etc.</li>\n <li>TheCommercial Deliverysegment includes local delivery EV vans and trucks sold to fleets.</li>\n <li>TheMedium- and Long-Haul Truckingsegment includes heavier Class 4 - Class 8 trucks, as well as special industrial vehicles.</li>\n</ul>\nIn addition, it categorizesLegacy ManufacturersandChinese EV Companies. This enables investors to evaluate investment opportunities by considering unique opportunities within each market segment.\nThere is an enormous amount of investment optimism for EVs, and retail investors have been aggressively buying into EV stocks with seemingly no regard for valuation. Then there is the additional challenge of valuing companies with no revenue, especially those coming public through SPACs. So, valuation is an important investment consideration.\nSo let's start by looking at an overview of comparative EV valuations.\nEV Investment Valuation Overview\nThe following chart summarizes valuations for 23 EV companies, including several legacy companies. For SPACs, market cap estimates are computed using the pro forma number of shares at closing, otherwise using the valuation of the SPAC prior to closing drastically underestimates the valuation, which may be misleading to novice investors. Price/Sales ratios (market cap divided by revenue) are used to compare valuations. As a benchmark, current P/S ratios vary. For example, auto and truck companies have a ratio of 2.7X. Software companies have the highest ratios of over 10X.\nIn the chart, companies that currently have revenue show current P/S ratios. Where projections are available, projected P/S ratios are computed. A note of caution, however. Many of the EV companies came public through SPACs and published their projections (which public companies cannot do), and many of these are likely to prove unrealistic.\nAll of the longer-term revenue projections come from the company (C) forecasts with a SPAC. Some of these may turn out to be accurate, not many are most likely unrealistic. Some, like Lucid, Faraday, and Arrival forecast hitting more than $10 billion in revenue in a few years, when it took Tesla more than 10. Things are different now and they might achieve these, but they could also find that it will take longer to complete development, ramp up production, and create enough customer demand. Many companies may also find that there will be significant capital requirements to achieve this type of growth, and shareholders will be diluted.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc360dfa7de01516b7f68d5962cf3017\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"883\">\nTesla, the \"gold standard\" in EVs, has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, which many people believe is overvalued. Its market cap is approximately 20X 2020 revenue and 10X estimated 2022 revenue.\nTesla (TSLA)\nIn the U.S., and to a lesser extent in China, Tesla is the dominant EV provider. It has approximately 60% of the U.S. EV market and about 20% of the market in China. I own a Tesla and love it, but an investment in Tesla stock requires getting comfortable with its valuation. Tesla has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, although declining lately, which some consider still overvalued while others see upside potential.\nThe investment opportunity with Tesla is based on the expectation that it will continue to dominate the EV market, or at least maintain significant market share, despite much greater competition from the expected introduction of hundreds of new EV models in the next few years.\nThere is a great deal already published about Tesla, so I'll move on.\nLegacy Automakers\nSome people think that the legacy automakers will simply fade away. Historically, that was the case in some other industries, but it is not going to happen to most automakers. They are not standing still waiting to become obsolete. Most have aggressive strategies to replace ICE vehicles with EVs. GM plans to invest $27 billion and build and launch as many as 30 new EV models by 2025. Ford plans to invest $29 billion in EVs by 2025 and launch as many as 16 EVs in the next two years. Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY)has also committed billions to develop new EVs.\nThe competitive advantage that legacy automakers have in selling their new EVs is their dealer network. Will new EV customers prefer to continue going to their regular auto dealer to buy their new EV?\nAlmost all legacy automakers worldwide are developing and launching EVs including Volkswagen, Peugeot, Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi, Hyundai/Kia. Let's look a little more closely at GM and Ford as the leaders in the U.S.\nGeneral Motors (GM)\nGM has committed to introducing 20 new electric vehicles by 2023, including EVs across Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC, and Buick. It recently announced that it has already sold out the first-year production of its Hummer electric pickup. By mid-decade, it expects to sell a million EVs per year in its two largest markets: North America and China. As a reference point, Tesla reported deliveries of 367,500 vehicles globally in 2019.\nGM has a solid platform strategy for its EVs. It plans on building its EVs using five interchangeable drive units and three different motors from its Ultium Drive System platform. Ultium energy options range from 50 to 200 kWh, which could enable an estimated range of up to 400 miles. Most of its EVs will have 400-volt battery packs and up to 200 kW fast-charging capability while the truck platform will have 800-volt battery packs and 350 kW fast-charging capabilities.\nThe key building blocks of the Ultium battery system are large-scale, high-energy cells. Engineered in partnership with LG Energy Solutions, they use both advanced chemistry and a smart cell design that's optimized for a broad portfolio of EVs. GM engineers and scientists are actively researching and testing new elements in battery chemistry to lower costs and improve charge times. Ultium can contain either vertically- or horizontally-stacked cells to integrate into vehicle design: vertically for trucks, SUVs, and crossovers, or horizontally for cars and performance vehicles. As new chemistry is developed and becomes available, the battery management system could digitally update the modules.\nGM also has other EV opportunities with its BrightDrop commercial EV service and its Cruise subsidiary. BrightDrop will not just sell delivery EVs, it will provide an entire service platform for commercial delivery customers. Its set of electric delivery vehicles starts with the EV600 and includes the BrightDrop EP1, a pod-like electric pallet. SeeGeneral Motors' Aggressive EV/AV Strategies May Payoff Big.\nWith its highest stock price of $61.65, GM's current market cap is approximately $89 billion, increasing primarily because of its progress with EVs. This approximately 3X valuation in 2018, but still only 13% of Tesla.\nFord (F)\nFord is also investing heavily in EVs. It just introduced the Mustang Mach-E, a battery-powered crossover with sports car styling, and plans to introduce an all-electric version of its best-selling F-150 pickup later this year. Also, planned is an electric edition of the full-size Transit van, which has been popular in the commercial delivery market. Ford has confirmed plans to build a luxury Lincoln crossover on a battery-powered platform provided by Rivian. The automaker also plans to introduce two new midsize electric crossovers, one each for the Ford and Lincoln brands by 2023.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd8523e15bccc57790940d4218f7b94e\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"1080\">Mustang Mach-E. Source: Ford\nFord's market cap is approximately $51 billion, twice its previous market cap, and also increasing.\nConsumer Retail EV Companies\nThe consumer retail market has some unique characteristics for new EV companies. Sales are made individually, not in fleets. This diversifies the risk upon launch because only a sufficient number of customers need to be attracted to the new EV. A wave of popularity can provide terrific momentum.\nHowever, the lack of a dealer network can be an impediment. Selling EVs directly to consumers instead of through dealers is prohibited in most states. By law, auto manufacturers can't compete with franchised dealers. These are laws that go back many decades to protect dealers. This can be a major impediment for new companies without established independent dealer franchises. So, new AV companies. like Tesla, need to sell their vehicles online. Tesla has successfully done this, but it took a lot of work and time. Lack of a dealer network also creates impediments in service.\nIn addition, over the next 4-5 years, autonomous capabilities will be increasingly important to luxury vehicles. This may prove to be a challenge to start-up EV companies because they can't afford to develop this technology.\nLet's look closer at the alternative consumer retail EV investments.\nLucid Motors (CCIV)\nLucid was founded in 2007 under the name Atieva and originally focused on building electric vehicle batteries and powertrains for other vehicle manufacturers. The company rebranded itself as Lucid Motors in October 2016 and shifted its strategy to develop an all-electric, high-performance, luxury vehicle. Shortly after that, it encountered financial difficulties and struggled to get short-term funding. In 2018 it raised more than $1 billion in investment, primarily from Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund, and gave up a majority of the company.\nLucid Motors reached an agreement to become a publicly-traded company through a merger with the SPAC Churchill Capital IV Corp., in one of the largest deals SPAC EV deals. The combined company, in which Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund will continue to be the largest shareholder, had a transaction equity value of $11.75 billion (for $10/share). At the same time, it closed a PIPE investment priced at $15 a share, giving it an implied pro forma equity value of $24 billion. Rumors about this deal circulated before the transaction was formally announced, making it one of the most anticipated SPAC deals. The hype and speculation drove up the stock price of Churchill Capital IV Corp. from its opening price of $10 a share to almost $60. I believe that some of this may have been driven by novice SPAC investors who didn't realize that the valuation of CCIV didn't include the eventual valuation of Lucid. The share price dropped more than 30% after the details of the deal were announced. It's also likely that Lucid renegotiated the terms of the merger based on the price jump.\nThe company's first product is the Lucid Air, a well-equipped luxury electric vehicle that features 406 miles of projected range and 480 horsepower with a starting price of $77,400, or $69,900 after the U.S. Federal Tax Credit of $7,500. This new Lucid Air model is positioned as a high-performance, ultra-efficient luxury EV sedan in a line of future vehicles that are expected to include Lucid Air Touring, Grand Touring, and Dream Edition versions.\nThe company plans to begin production and deliveries of the Lucid Air in North America in the second half of 2021. Previously the company aimed to begin deliveries earlier in 2021. It intends to sell the car in Europe in 2022, followed by China in 2023. Lucid vehicles will be produced at its new factory in Casa Grande, Arizona. The company plans to expand the factory in phases in the coming years to have the capacity to produce 365,000 units per year at scale. The initial phase of the $700 million factory construction was completed late last year and will have the capacity to produce 30,000 vehicles a year.\nLucid also apparently has a commitment to build an assembly plant in Saudi Arabia, which was rumored to be a condition of the $1 billion investment from the Saudi public fund. The Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund also provided $600 million in bridge financing and invested in the SPAC deal as well. So, while this assembly plant may be expensive and may not be critical, it will most likely need to happen.\nLucid has ambitious plans to achieve $14 billion in revenue in 2025, and its current stock price at $29.17, which gives it a market cap of more than $46 billion, may already reflect those ambitions. Its market cap is roughly the same as Ford.\nFisker (FSR)\nFisker, which had its origins with Fisker Automotive, is an interesting story that ended in bankruptcy. Henrik Fisker originally co-founded Fisker Automotive in 2007. He was responsible for designing many premium cars such as the Aston Martin. Subsequently, Fisker Automotive had to deal with a Tesla lawsuit against Fisker Automotive alleging it stole Tesla's technology, a controversial $528.7 million conditional loan from the Department of Energy, a recall of its battery produced by A123, and the loss of several hundred vehicles in hurricane Sandy. Henrik Fisker resigned in March 2013 because of disagreements over business strategy and in November 2013, Fisker filed its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case.\nHowever, Henrik Fisker retained the Fisker brand and trademarks, and in 2016 he started another electric vehicle company named Fisker Inc. with the Fisker brand and trademarks. In 2019, Fisker shifted from developing a sports car with a solid-state battery to the Ocean SUV featuring a lithium-ion battery, which it later abandoned for a solid-state battery.\nFisker is positioning itself in a unique segment for those who want the most environmentally friendly EV. While this may be an early growth segment for EVs, it's difficult to estimate its eventual competitive advantage and the size of this environmentally-friendly market segment.\nThe Ocean is a crossover made of recycled metal and plastic with an expected base price of $37,499, and an expected lease of less than $400 a month. Fisker's plan is essentially a lease-only business model that lets customers keep a vehicle for years or return it at any time. It aims to source motors, batteries, and other components from technical partnerships with automakers and will outsource production from existing auto plants. Fisker is currently taking reservations at $250 for the Ocean. It also announced an agreement with Foxconn to jointly develop a vehicle pioneering a new market segment to be sold globally under the Fisker brand commencing in Q4 2023. at the end of 2022. Production will start at Magna Steyr's manufacturing facilities in Europe. At the end of February 2021, it had 12,467 cancellable reservations.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/924a617c90fc3276d7bdab8c64ebfdcf\" tg-width=\"744\" tg-height=\"389\">Fisker Ocean. Source: Fisker\nFisker went public using a SPAC (Spartan Energy). The original combination with SPAQ in October 2020 was valued at $2.9 billion with a cash investment of approximately $1 billion. The stock currently trades at approximately $21 per share, after reaching a high of $28.50, from the original price of $10, which is a market cap of $4.6 billion. Fisker projects $3.3 billion in revenue in 2023. It had almost $1 billion in cash at the end of 2020 and expected to use almost half of this in 2021: $250 million on operating expenses and $250 million in capital investments. If the Ocean is delayed into 2023, Fisker risks missing its revenue objective and will potentially need additional cash to complete development and launch.\nFaraday Future (PSAC)\nFaraday Future was originally established in May 2014 by Chinese businessman Jia Yueting. It is headquartered in Los Angeles and has offices in Silicon Valley, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu. Faraday Future also had a turbulent history. In 2016, it struggled financially, and in 2017 some key executives departed over a dispute about financial issues. They later founded Canoo.\nIn December 2018 the company announced layoffs due to a cash crunch and financial troubles. The company's founder Jia Yueting filed for personal bankruptcy in the United States' federal court in Delaware on October 14, 2019. Following Jia's personal bankruptcy, he decided to step down from his role as CEO of Faraday Future in order to assume a new position as the Chief Product and User Officer. He was replaced as CEO by Carsten Breitfeld, the former CEO at rival electric vehicle startup Byton.\nSomehow, Faraday was able to raise $2.3 billion in private funding over 5 rounds from a variety of investors. In early 2018, it received $1.5 billion in funding from an undisclosed investor from Hong Kong.\nFaraday's flagship product offering will be the FF 91, featuring 1,050 HP, 0-60 mph in less than 2.4 seconds, zero gravity seats with the largest 60-degree reclining angles, and a user experience designed to create a mobile, connected, and luxurious living space. The FF 91 is targeted to launch in 2022.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e38bfb3211c72bb73bc26f2ebe296fe\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"854\">FF 91. Source: Faraday Future\nIts strategic partners include one of China's top three OEMs and a critical Chinese city, which the company believes will help establish its presence in the Chinese vehicle market.\nFaraday Future plans several cars based on its Variable Platform Architecture. FF 91 is the first production vehicle and flagship model. Pricing will range between $120,000 and upwards of $200,000, which places it against formidable opponents. Faraday Future is already looking forward to expanding its range with a pair of smaller models named FF 81 and FF 71. The FF 81 is planned to be priced at $75,000 to 95,000 with a 2023 release. The FF 71 is planned to be priced at $45,000 to $65,000 with a planned release of 2024.\nThe Primary Manufacturing Facility for FF 91 is in Hanford, CA with contract manufacturing for future models in Gunsan, South Korea.\nFaraday Future is planning high-Level automation with a Level-3 capable system using a redundant safety architecture based on NVIDIA Xavier System-on-a-chip. It will be capable of highway auto-drive and hardware ready for advanced auto-drive. It is targeting full autonomous valet parking &amp; summon in any parking lot or structure. Eventually, it expects full auto-drive, including full 360˚ sensor coverage for advanced auto-drive &amp; auto-park features.\nIn January 2021, Faraday Future announced that the company would go public through a reverse merger with the special purpose acquisition company Property Solutions Acquisition Corp. (PSAC). The combined company will be valued at $3.4 billion. Faraday Future is expected to set up contract manufacturing operations in China through their partnership with Geely. Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn is also expected to serve as an additional strategic partner.\nFaraday Future projects $10.5 billion in revenue in 2024 and $21.5 billion in 2025. Revenue is expected to start in 2022 with the delivery of 2,400 vehicles for $504 million. Most likely these projections could prove to be optimistic. At a current stock price of approximately $12.80, it has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nLordstown Motors (RIDE)\nLordstown Motors based in Lordstown, Ohio, was originally founded in 2018 by Steve Burns, the former CEO of Workhorse Group. The company licensed technology from Workhorse in return for royalties and a 10% ownership. Lordstown is named after the famous GM Lordstown manufacturing plant, which it acquired in November 2019 in an unusual transaction. GM announced that it was closing the plant and was under a great deal of pressure for that decision. So, GM \"sold\" the plant to a company that was renamed Lordstown for an estimated $20 million that it loaned to the acquiring company. Subsequently, the sale was redefined to be part of a $75 million investment by GM, of which $50 million was an in-kind exchange for the plant.\nLordstown went public through the SPAC DiamondPeak Holdings Corp. in 2020. It currently has more than 400 employees.\nIts first product is the Lordstown Endurance, a full-sized EV pickup truck. Lordstown is positioning Endurance for the pickup fleet market segment. The expected price is $52,000+, and it claimed to have more than 100,000 pre-orders by January 2021. However, a recent research article published by a short seller claimed \"Our research has revealed that Lordstown's order book consists of fake or entirely non-binding orders, from customers that generally do not even have fleets of vehicles.\" Lordstown is disputing that article.\nIt believes the fleet pickup market segment is underserved with no current EV-focused competition. It estimates that the full-sized pick-up truck fleet market is 1.2 million vehicles per year in the U.S., but it's more fragmented than other truck fleets. Pickup \"fleets\" tend to be much smaller and local, so there may not be much of a market distinction for a small company buying several EV pickups from a traditional auto dealer. About half of the total U.S. pickup market is classified as fleet sales, meaning more than one.\nEven though Lordstown is targeting the commercial fleet market, it is a similar product to the Ford EV F-150. So I classify it in the consumer EV category. It is a class 2 vehicle. Lordstown also may enter the SUV market in the longer-term.\nThe Endurance will compete against future models from Rivian and Tesla, as well as Ford and GM in ICE pick-ups and their upcoming EV pick-ups. Ford plans on selling its EV F-150 in mid-2022. Initial production of the Endurance is expected in the second half of 2021, so it may have a short market advantage. Nevertheless, it forecasts selling 65,000 vehicles in 2023 and 107,000 in 2024. These estimates could be a large percentage of the EV pick-up market in those years.\nAt the SPAC merger, the implied valuation for Lordstown was $1.6 billion, including a $500 million PIPE and the $75 million by GM. Lordstown's financial projections appear to be aggressive. It projects to start shipping the Endurance in late 2021 with projected revenue in 2022 of $1.7 billion, increasing to $5.8 billion in 2024. Its stock price at approximately $13.60 values the company at a market cap of approximately $2.2 billion. The value of the company depends on the likelihood of achieving its projections.\nA fleet sales strategy makes sense for Lordstown since it would be too expensive to build a retail sales and service capability. However, it's not clear that this will become a distinct competitive advantage. Some small fleets may still prefer to buy their EV pickups from established local dealers with service capabilities.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nCanoo started as Evelozcity in 2017 and rebranded as Canoo in the spring of 2019. Canoo is a Los Angeles-based company that develops electric vehicles. It has over 350 employees. Canoo has designed a modular electric platform purpose-built to deliver maximum vehicle interior space, which is adaptable to support a wide range of vehicle applications for consumers and businesses. Canoo expects to launch its first consumer model in 2022, simply named the Canoo that will be available by subscription, followed shortly after by a multi-purpose delivery vehicle and a sports vehicle, each built off of the same underlying platform. Canoo went public using a SPAC (Hennessy Capital Acquisition) and now trades as GOEV.\nCanoo's all-electric skateboard-like platform is designed to support both consumer retail and commercial vehicle configurations. The EV leverages Canoo's flat skateboard architecture for a high level of usable interior space. Its commercial vehicle program, expected in 2023, addresses a projected $50B+ last-mile delivery market with an EV platform that maximizes cargo volume.\nHyundai Motor Group said it would jointly develop an electric vehicle platform with the company.\nCanoo's platform strategy is interesting. It could be used as an EV platform for custom fleets of delivery vehicles. It has no AV development, but it claims to be \"AV Ready\" which could be useful for AV companies wanting to build custom AV delivery fleets.\nIts all-electric multi-purpose delivery vehicle is expected to be priced starting at approximately $33,000. It is based on Canoo's proprietary electric platform and will be offered in two initial size variants, with others to follow. Limited availability will begin in 2022, with scaled production and launch planned for 2023. Customers can pre-order the multi-purpose delivery vehicle for a refundable deposit of $100 per vehicle\nIt plans to offer two multi-purpose delivery vehicles: the MPDV1 and the larger MPDV2. The first has a 200-foot cargo volume and a range of 130-200 miles. It offers more capacity than today's ICE delivery vehicles at an affordable price with urban mobility enabled by a space-efficient footprint. The vehicle is also designed to fit within many height-restricted areas like parking garages.\nThe MPDV2 has a cargo volume of 450 feet and a range of 90-190 miles. Its roof and step-in height enable individuals to easily walk-in the vehicle and accommodate a standing position while inside.\nThe original SPAC transaction provided approximately $600 million, with a pro forma equity value of approximately $2.4 billion. Like other SPAC mergers, its stock price has fluctuated. It currently trades at about $15.90 per share for a market cap of approximately $3.7 billion. Canoo projects $2.0 billion in revenue in 2025 from about $500 million in engineering services, $1.2 billion from its consumer vehicle subscriptions, and the remainder from its commercial program. Canoo expects revenue of more than $300 million in 2022 after the launch of its lifestyle consumer vehicle.\nSince its first products are aimed at consumers, as is most of its forecasted 2025 revenue, I categorize it primarily as a consumer EV company. However, I think the design of that Canoo vehicle may not attract enough customers. More importantly, its subscription service way of selling its EV to consumers is risky. I think it has more potential in the commercial market, however, a dual strategy (consumer and commercial) is challenging. I like its skateboard platform design and that could prove to be a competitive advantage.\nRivian\nAlthough not yet public, I include Rivian because it has plans for an IPO as soon as Sept 2021, although it could slip into 2022. There are rumors that the company is targeting a market valuation of approximately $50B. Rivian has already raised more than $8 billion to date from Amazon, Ford, T. Rowe Price, and others.\nRivian has developed and vertically integrated a connected electric platform that can be flexibly applied to a range of applications, including the company's adventure products, as well as B2B products such as the Amazon last-mile delivery vans. The company's initial products, the R1T and R1S, provide a combination of performance, off-road capability, and utility. These vehicles will be produced at Rivian's manufacturing plant in Normal, Ill., with customer deliveries expected to begin in summer 2021. The launch of the R1S three-row electric SUV will follow in August.\nAdditional lower-priced models are being planned. The expected R2 series would include at least two smaller electric vehicles to coincide with the smaller platform, then another platform for R3.\nCommercial Delivery EV Companies\nEV truck companies differ based on the type of truck they are developing. The technology and markets are very different, so I separate them into two categories. The first category includes commercial delivery vehicles.\nCompanies making EV delivery vehicles have some major advantages that could make them good investments. First, delivery vehicles typically travel less than 250 miles during a day, so they can be conveniently recharged overnight. Secondly, they are typically sold in large quantities to fleets. This means that building a retail sales infrastructure is not necessary. It only requires a small salesforce. In addition, maintenance can also be provided at the fleet's operational center, so not as many service centers are required.\nThe disadvantage in this market is that there are a relatively small number of customers that buy in large volumes, so if the EV manufacturer can't get enough large customers, they may not be able to stay in business. GM estimates the combined market opportunity for parcel and food delivery, as well as reverse logistics, in the U.S. will be more than $850 billion by 2025.\nThe commercial market is expected to be a major growth area for EVs. Other start-up automakers like Rivian as well as legacy automakers such as Ford, Daimler, and GM have announced plans to enter the segment. GM recently announced its BrightDrop ecosystem for commercial customers that includes an all-new electric delivery van, the EV600 available by the end of 2021, as well as an integrated autonomous pallet and related services.\nThis group of EV companies focuses primarily on commercial delivery. In general, these are in the light-duty trucks category, although it also includes some medium-duty trucks. This generally includes the following commercial truck classes:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 1: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 0-6,000 pounds or 0-2,722 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 2: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 6,001-10,000 pounds or 2,722-4,536 kilograms.1</li>\n <li>Class 3: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 10,001-14,000 pounds or 4,536-6,350 kilograms.</li>\n</ul>\nIt can also include somewhat larger medium-duty EV delivery trucks:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.</li>\n</ul>\nEV delivery trucks also have an advantage over ICE vehicles because they can have a greater delivery storage space. Smaller buses and transit vehicles are also included in this category.\nLast-mile package delivery is not an immediate-term autonomous vehicle opportunity because it requires a delivery person to be on the truck anyway.\nWorkhorse Group (WKHS)\nWorkhorse has been a public company for ten years. Originally AMP Electric Vehicles, it was established in 2007 as a developmental-stage vehicle electrification company, focusing on conversions. AMP Electric Vehicles went public in 2010 trading on the OTC market under the AMPD symbol. When the economic benefits of conversion became less certain, it pivoted away from passenger vehicles and began to focus on electrifying commercial vehicles. AMP acquired the Workhorse brand and the Workhorse custom chassis assembly plant in Union City. In March of 2013, AMP formally changed its name to Workhorse Group Incorporated.\nThe Company designs and builds a last-mile delivery electric vehicle. The C-Series EVs cover the larger size of commercial delivery vehicles in Classes 3-5. As part of its solutions, it also develops cloud-based, real-time telematics performance monitoring systems. It sells its vehicles to fleet customers directly and through its primary distributor, Ryder Systems. It is currently focused on bringing the C-Series electric delivery truck to market and fulfilling the existing backlog of orders.\nThe C-Series looks like a viable EV replacement for the 350,000 last-mile delivery vehicles sold in the U.S. annually. It recently announced an increased driving range from 100 miles to 160, which should open more market opportunities. It has a viable short-term go-to-market strategy selling fleets to delivery companies. It currently has test vehicles with UPS, DHL, FedEx, Amazon, and Walmart.\nWorkhorse recently lost out on the United States Postal Services Next Generation Delivery Vehicle project, however, it is in the process of challenging this decision. Additionally, its investment in Lordstown also provides an indirect investment opportunity. On November 7, 2019, the Company entered a transaction with Lordstown Motors to grant LMC a perpetual and worldwide license to certain intellectual property relating to its W-15 electric pickup truck platform and related technology in exchange for royalties, equity interest (approximately 10%) in LMC, and other considerations. This was a $320 million asset for Workhorse at the end of 2020.\nWorkhorse received a significant increase in orders in Q4/2020 but built just seven trucks in the fourth quarter due to production systems and supply chain issues. Workhorse plans to continue to take it slow, striving to build three of its composite-body battery-electric trucks a day in March with a plan to reach 10 trucks a day by the end of June. This makes its original 2021 goal of producing 1,800 trucks unlikely. It partnered with Hitachi and Hitachi Capital America (\"HCA\") to improve the Company's manufacturing, operational, and supply chain capabilities as well as to develop a national dealer network to support Workhorse's sales with vehicle financing options for both dealers and customers.\nWorkhorse has a market cap of approximately $1.9 billion. While Workhorse had ongoing revenue, unlike many other new EV companies, its revenue is still insignificant. It had a revenue of $1.4 million in 2020 and $377,000 in 2019. It has a backlog of over 8,000 vehicles but doesn't expect to be able to build many of those in 2021. It raised $270 million in capital over several financings, providing the Company with additional capital to build its backlog. It had cash of $215 million as of March 1, 2021. Because Workhorse is a traditional public company, it hasn't made long-term financial projections like SPAC-based companies.\nElectric Last Mile (FIII)\nElectric Last Mile, based in Troy Michigan, was founded by Jason Luo, former CEO of Ford China before it was acquired by China's Ningbo Joyson Electronic for $920 million in 2016, including James Taylor, former CEO of GM's Hummer brand and former CEO of electric car maker Karma Automotive. Taylor serves as the company's top executive with Luo as the company's chairman.\nThe company plans to launch a small electric delivery van (class 1-2), called the UD-1, in the third quarter of 2021, and then introduce an Urban Utility vehicle (Class 2-3) in 2022. These are expected to compete with Workhorse, Rivian, Canoo, as well as the Ford eTransit and the GMC BV1, none of which is expected to be a Class 1 vehicle.\nThe company says it has 30,000 preorders for its van, representing more than $1 billion in sales. Electric Last Miles vehicles will be based on Sokon's commercial van made in China through a joint venture with Dongfeng Automobile Co Ltd. in order to accelerate development time.\nElectric Last Mile (ELM) is expected to manufacture the vans in a former General Motors Co. Hummer plant in Mishawaka, Ind., that the company is acquiring from China's Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co. Ltd. The plant has the capacity to produce 100,000 vehicles annually with plans to build approximately 4,000 UD-1 vans by the end of 2021. The UD-1 has a starting price of $32,500 and a range of 150 miles. The battery for the vehicle is expected to be supplied by the Chinese battery company CATL.\nELM believes that it has a competitive advantage because its first vehicle, the ELM Urban Delivery, is scheduled to be available in 2021. It is based on a proven, existing platform developed and sold by Sokon Group in the Asian market, where there are 30,000 of these electric delivery vehicles driving 1.5 million miles every day. At the close of the business combination, ELM will be an independent, U.S. company producing electric vehicles in the U.S. with Sokon Group providing access to its know-how, parts supply, and field and service data.\nELM expects that the Urban Delivery vehicle will be the first electric delivery vehicle coming to market in the class 1 category (GVW of 6,000 lbs or less) in the U.S. It will also have 35% more carrying volume compared to similar ICE delivery vehicles, a critical part of the value proposition. It also anticipates that its price and greater carrying volume will allow it to take market share from the class 2 category of vehicles as well.\nIts crossover product portfolio strategy targets commercial delivery vehicles spanning from class 1 to class 3, which represents over 80% of the last mile market.\nELM anticipates $122 million in revenue in 2021, rapidly increasing to $3 billion in 2025. The price of FIII stock increased immediately following its announcement with Electric Last Mile, rising more than 40% to $14.50, but now it has dropped closer to the original deal price to $10.25 for a market cap of approximately $1.5 billion.\nGreenPower Motor Company (GP)\nGreenPower Motor Company Inc. is a Canadian battery-electric bus manufacturer with multiple models of high- and low-floor vehicles, including transit buses, school buses, and shuttles. GreenPower offers commercial vehicles for delivery, public transit, schools, vanpooling, micro-transit, shuttles, and is developing a capability of autonomous operation. It went public on August 28, 2020.\nIn 2014 GreenPower launched its first purpose-built, battery-electric bus, the EV350, 40-foot transit bus. GreenPower received its first order in 2017 for ten EV350s from the City of Porterville, California.\nGreenPower's electric buses are purpose-built and designed to be all-electric, allowing it to put the battery and propulsion system in optimized locations that provide weight and structural advantages. Its primary EV is the EV Star with more than 120 vehicles delivered. It comes in several variations:\n<ul>\n <li>EV Star - Up to 19 passengers</li>\n <li>EV Star Plus - Up to 24 passengers</li>\n <li>EV Star ADA - Passenger and curbside lift for ADA</li>\n <li>EV Star Cargo - 5,000 pounds of load</li>\n <li>EV Star Cargo Plus - 570 cubic feet of cargo space.</li>\n</ul>\nIts EV school bus seats up to 90 students and has a range of up to 150 miles.\nGreenPower had revenue of $13.5 million in 2020 It has about $21 million in cash. It's an interesting alternative since it is already shipping EVs, has revenue, and also has a lower market cap of less than $1 billion. Since it did a traditional IPO, it hasn't published longer-term financial forecasts.\nArrival (CIIC)\nArrival was founded in 2015 in London to make a variety of commercial electric vehicles. It has approximately 1,200 employees across 11 cities in 8 countries. In November 2020, Arrival and the SPAC CIIG entered into a business combination agreement with an implied valuation of $5.39 billion.\nArrival plans on releasing four commercial EVs over the next few years.\n<ul>\n <li>Q4/2021: An electric bus for 8-125 passengers and a range of 240-400km</li>\n <li>Q3/2022: An electric delivery van with a payload of 975-2,000kg and a range of 150-340km</li>\n <li>2022: A larger electric van with a payload of 4,000 kg and a range of 190-400km</li>\n <li>2023: a small vehicle platform with a range of 100-300km.</li>\n</ul>\nThis mix provides a nice diversified portfolio of EVs. Arrival claims to have received orders from UPS for 10,000 vans. It plans a unique flexible manufacturing approach using micro-factories with each projected to manufacture 10,000 vans per year. All of its vehicles use a modular skateboard electric platform.\nArrival ambitiously projects $14.1 billion in revenue in 2024. Half of that revenue is expected from delivery vans, 22% from buses, and the rest from the large van and its small vehicle platform. With CIIC's stock price at $24.80 per share, Arrival's current market cap is relatively high at approximately $15.0 billion. Justifying its market cap depends on its ability to release, sell, and produce its four commercial EVs.\nProterra (ACTC)\nProterra is a commercial electric vehicle company with over a decade of production experience. The Company has designed an end-to-end, flexible technology platform that claims to deliver higher performance and a low total cost of ownership to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end customers.\nProterra, Inc., was originally founded in Golden, Colorado, by Dale Hill in 2004. Later the company wanted to take the lead in creating zero-emission, U.S.-based transit buses. In 2010 it moved its manufacturing plant from Golden, Colorado to Greenville, South Carolina. In 2015, Proterra was awarded a $3 million grant from the California Energy Commission to fund the design, development, and construction of the company's battery-electric transit bus manufacturing line in the City of Industry, California. It moved its headquarters from Greenville, South Carolina, to Burlingame, California, in October 2015. Proterra raised more than $600 million in funding.\nIt is going public through the SPAC ArcLight (ACTC) with a pro forma valuation of $1.6 billion. Upon completion of the transaction, Proterra expects to have up to $825 million in cash to fund growth initiatives, including R&amp;D and the expansion of its next-generation battery program.\nProterra has three complementary businesses:\n<ul>\n <li>Proterra Powered: Delivering battery systems and electrification solutions to commercial vehicle manufacturers</li>\n <li>Proterra Transit:Providing an electric transit bus OEMs</li>\n <li>Proterra Energy:Offering turnkey charging and energy management solutions.</li>\n</ul>\nThe company's battery systems have been proven in more than 16 million service miles driven by its fleet of transit vehicles and validated through partnerships with commercial vehicle OEMs. Proterra has produced and delivered more than 300 megawatt-hours of battery systems, more than 550 heavy-duty electric transit buses, and installed 54 megawatts of charging systems.\nProterra expected $193 million of revenue in 2020, with an estimated $750 million in existing orders and backlog. It projects $2.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with about 1/3 coming from its Transit business, and 2/3 From Powered &amp; Energy. At ACTC's current stock price of $17.85, Proterra has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nRivian\nRivian (see earlier description in consumer retail) will also compete in the commercial delivery market. It has been working with Amazon (a major investor) to build large electric delivery vans for Prime. Developed specifically for Amazon, a small fleet of Prime vans is on the road now, testing deliveries to customers and gathering feedback. In late fall, it could grow to a large fleet as Rivian ramps up the volume.\nThe EV range of 150 miles is tailored to Amazon's use cycle to optimize the size, weight, and cost of the commercial vehicle. Rivian has three sizes of batteries, but Amazon is starting with just one of them.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nSee the previous summary under consumer retail EV.\nMedium and Long-Haul Trucking EV Companies\nCompanies developing medium- and long-haul EV trucks face a more difficult challenge with battery range. These trucks haul much more weight than commercial delivery vehicles and because they are designed for long distances, they can't stop every 200-300 miles for recharging.\nFor this reason, many of these companies are using unique hybrid technologies for their trucks. The EV trucks in this category are primarily heavy-duty but also include some medium-duty trucks and specialty vehicles. A couple of the companies focus on retrofitting trucks to be electric.\nMedium-Duty Trucks\nThe medium-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 4, 5, and 6:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 6: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 19,501-26,000 pounds or 8,846-11,793 kilograms.1</li>\n</ul>\nHeavy-Duty Trucks\nThe heavy-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 7 and 8:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 7: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 26,001 to 33,000 pounds or 11,794-14,969 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 8: This class of trucks has a GVWR of greater than 33,001 pounds or 14,969 kilograms and includes all tractor-trailers.</li>\n</ul>\nThe Tesla Semi is a battery vehicle planned for a range of 300 or 500 miles and a speed of 60 MPH with 80,000 lbs of cargo. Tesla plans to start shipping the Semi later this year when it expects to have sufficient cell volume to meet its needs with the production of its 4680 battery pack.\nNikola(NASDAQ:NKLA)\nNikola has been a very controversial company. Founded in 2015, it originally had two different strategies. Its primary strategy is to lease fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) Class-8 heavy trucks and provide the refueling infrastructure to corporate customers. Its second strategy was to develop the Badger EV truck using GM technology.\nNikola originally merged with a SPAC to go public, at an enterprise value of approximately $3.3 billion. On June 6th, 2020, its market cap jumped to more than $30 billion, then later it dropped because of problems with its originally planned deal with GM.\nNikola originally expected a deal with General Motors that included the production of the Nikola Badger EV pickup truck. The proposed arrangement was that GM would take a $2 billion equity stake in Nikola and in return would engineer and produce the Badger. In November 2020, GM and Nikola scrapped the original arrangement. Now it appears that GM will supply Nikola with only its Hydrotec hydrogen fuel-cell technology to integrate into the EV manufacturer's commercial class 7 and class 8 zero-emission semi-trucks. So, the Badger is probably dead.\nNikola now sees semi-trucks as the company's \"core business\" and fuel cells as an increasingly important segment of the semi-truck market thanks to their efficiency in weight and consumption. It expects to begin testing by the end of 2021.\nIt has received pre-orders from Anheuser-Busch and a few other companies, but it doesn't expect deliveries until 2023. Hydrogen fueling stations are key to its strategy, both providing a source of revenue and necessary fueling infrastructure for the trucks to operate, but they also cost a lot. In its March 2020 investor deck, Nikola said a single station capable of fueling 210 trucks a day would cost $16.6 million. Its initial planned network of 700 stations would cost roughly $11.6 billion.\nNikola was also accused of misrepresentation, and its executive chairman and founder stepped down.\nAt the time of the SPAC merger, it projected an optimistic forecast of more than $3 billion in revenue by 2024, with a net income of $145 million. Most of that revenue was expected to come from its Badger truck, which is no longer in the plans. Yet its market cap is still almost $6 billion.\nHyliion (HYLN)\nHyliion, founded in 2015 in Austin, went public in October 2020 through the SPAC Tortoise Acquisition Corp. (SHLL). In March 2019, automotive parts manufacturer Dana Inc. made an equity investment into Hyliion, and together they are manufacturing and marketing Class 8 EVs to Dana's customers, including Volvo, Navistar, and Peterbilt.\nHyliion's strategy is unique, and a very different strategy from Nikola. Essentially it generates electricity onboard the truck using compressed natural gas (CNG). This should be a benefit for longer-range trucking. Hyliion's Hypertruck concept involves an all-electric drivetrain utilizing Dana's electric motor, inverter, and axle technologies. The truck's batteries are fueled by onboard tanks of CNG. With some 700 CNG stations already operating nationwide, it believes that there no need to build out expensive superchargers or hydrogen infrastructure.\nKuwait-based logistics company, Agility, has already placed an order for 1,000 Hypertrucks with initial deliveries targeted in 2022. Combined with a fully electric drivetrain and a natural gas-powered onboard generator to recharge the battery, the Hypertruck ERX will provide more than 1,000 miles of range.\nHyliion will eventually compete with Nikola (FCEV) and the Tesla battery-based Semi, but it plans to have a longer range and lower operating costs. Its HyperTruck ERX is expected to be available in 2021. It also has a hybrid-electric truck.\nThe combination with SHLL had an estimated market cap of about $1.5 billion, with approximately $530 million going to the company, including a $325 million fully committed PIPE. At approximately $13.50 per share, its current market cap is approximately $2.2 billion, significantly down from its peak. Hyliion projects $2 billion in revenue in 2024, which it claims is only about 2% of the addressable market.\nXL Fleet (XL)\nXL Fleet is a 10-year old company that went public through the SPAC Pivotal. XL is different because it provides fleet electrification modifications for ICE trucks across a wide range of vehicle classes (class 2-5) and types. It has over 200 of the largest commercial and municipal fleets as customers, with more than 3,200 XL systems deployed and over 130 million miles driven by customers to date. XL's customer base includes FedEx, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Verizon, the City of Boston, Seattle Fire Department, Yale University, and Harvard University.\nXL's business model is essentially retrofitting existing trucks to be hybrids and then later expanding into fully electric truck conversions. It claims to be creating a fully integrated platform for this. It remains to be seen if the retrofitting business will continue to grow or will it diminish when more trucks are designed and manufactured with EV capabilities.\nUnlike some other EV companies that have no revenue yet because they are still developing products, XL is more of a small company doing low-volume retrofits. It had $7.2 million in revenue in 2019, $21 million in 2020, and estimates $76 million in 2021, but it forecasts $1.3 billion in revenue in 2024 in its investor presentation. It plans to do this by expanding its product line from hybrid to plug-in hybrid to fully electric across a broader range of trucks. It claims to have a $220 million sales pipeline for the next 12 months.\nShort-seller, Muddy Waters, claimed after talking to former XL Fleet employees, that it believed the company significantly exaggerated its order backlog, that the return on investment for the company's products was likely negative, and that it would not be able to compete with big car makers on electrification. The company thoroughly refuted these claims.\nThe original enterprise valuation was approximately $1.4 billion at a $10 share price for the merger. Its price jumped by about 35% but has since gone back down to $12.40 for a market cap of about $1.8 billion. Although XL Fleet has revenue and other EV companies don't, this may not be an advantage. It appears to be a small company for many years that has gone public at a high valuation with grand plans. The risks are in its ability to make a jump from $76 million in 2021 to $1.3 billion in 2024, as well as the question about retrofitting being replaced by new EV trucks by then.\nXos (NGAC)\nXos Trucks specializes in the field of manufacturing fully electric commercial vehicles. It features a software platform that is designed to accommodate an extensive variety of medium-duty bodies, wheelbase, and range requirements up to 200 miles. It was founded in 2016 and headquartered in North Hollywood, California. It received $20 million of investment in 2020 and now is going public through a merger with the SPAC ExtGen Acquisition Corporation (NGAC) at an estimated proforma value of $1.965 billion.\nIts focus is on medium- and heavy-duty last mile and return-to-base segments (class 5/6, class 6/7, and class 7/8) commercial fleets and specialty vehicles. Some vehicles are currently in production and in regular on-road operations with key fleet customers, and it claimed 6,000 unit orders in backlog.\nIts MD-platform is for classes 5-6 for pickup and delivery. Its HD X-Platform is an adaptable chassis for highway, vocational, and severe work conditions. Its market is for customers with highly predictable routes that allow for batteries designed for a more limited range. A significantly larger frame and smaller battery pack allow for reduced density.\nXos has a bundled all-in-one offering that allows fleets to access all the tools and services they need to go electric with a single point of contact at a fixed monthly expense.\nXos had $3 million in revenue in 2020 and estimates $14 million in 2021. However, it forecasts $5.2 billion in revenue in 2025. At the current stock price of $10.30, its market cap is approximately $2 billion, about the same as its original SPAC transaction.\nLion Electric (NGA)\nLion Electric is a Canadian company founded by Marc Bédard in 2008. Its focus is to be a leader in designing, developing, and manufacturing purpose-built urban electric vehicles; vehicles that are specifically designed as delivery trucks, refuse trucks, bucket trucks, moving trucks, school buses, and shuttle buses. It has over 300 all-electric vehicles on the road today.\nIn November 2020, it announced that it was going public through the SPAC NGA. The transaction had an estimated pro forma enterprise value of $1.5 billion.\nIt plans on seven new truck models and one new school bus, for a total of 15 all-electric vehicles, representing a full line-up from class 5 to class 8 electric trucks and a full line-up of electric school buses. Its vehicles are produced at its existing manufacturing plant, which has the capacity for the production of up to 2,500 vehicles per year. It intends to open a new plant in the U.S. capable of delivering over 20,000 Lion trucks and buses per year by 2022.\nIts all-electric class 6 and class 8 commercial urban trucks combine power, comfort, and modern technology. Custom-built chassis and cabin designed specifically for an all-electric heavy-duty vehicle. The LionC is an all-electric Type C school bus manufactured in North America. The body and chassis were specifically designed to deliver optimal performance. The LionM is an all-electric midi/minibus that meets paratransit and public transportation requirements. Created and designed specifically for the paratransit market, the is spacious and offers unique features that provide enhanced security and accessibility to the end-users.\nLion Electric had $29 million in revenue in 2020 and expects $204 million in 2021. It forecasts revenue to jump to $3.6 billion a few years later in 2024. Its current market cap is approximately $3.6 billion based on its current stock price of $18.33.\nLightning eMotors (GIK)\nLightning eMotors, formerly Lightning Systems, was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Loveland, Colorado. It provides fleet electrification for familiar commercial vehicle platforms by retrofitting them with its electric powertrains. Lightning eMotors produces electric fleet medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including delivery trucks, shuttle buses, passenger vans, ambulances, bucket trucks, chassis-cab models, and city transit buses. It focuses on urban commercial zero-emission vehicles with a full range of class 3 through class 7 battery-electric and fuel-cell electric vehicles.\nLighting eMotors helps commercial fleets achieve their sustainability goals by offering zero-emission battery-electric vans, trucks, and buses based on familiar, proven vehicles from manufacturers such as Ford and GM. It works with customers, to help them identify their unique commercial electric vehicle, charging, and grant support needs.\nThe Lightning products include integrated all-electric powertrains for the Ford Transit 350HD passenger and cargo vans, Ford E-450 shuttle bus and cutaway models, Ford F-59 step/food van, Ford F-550 cargo trucks and buses, Chevrolet 6500XD Low Cab Forward model, and 30-foot, 35-foot, and 40-foot transit buses.\nLightning has 120 vehicles on the road, and 1,500 vehicles already on order from customers. In addition to making vehicles and powertrains, Lightning also provides a full suite of charging solutions for customers.\nThe deal with GIK has an enterprise value of $650 million, although there is also an Earnout of 20.0% of total pro forma shares outstanding to Lightning eMotors shareholders if the stock crosses certain price thresholds.\nAt the current price, of $11.73, GIK has a market cap of approximately $1 billion, a little more than the original transaction valuation. Similar to XL Fleet, Lightning has the risk that retrofitting may only be an interim business opportunity until more EV trucks are produced.\nPublic Chinese EV Companies\nChina will be the biggest EV market opportunity, and EV start-ups may do better there because there isn't as much entrenched competition from domestic auto companies. China is already the largest EV market in the world, with almost a million EVs sold in 2019. Its EV market represents almost half of the global EV sales volume and is much larger than the U.S. market.\nThe Chinese government has ambitions to become a global leader in new energy vehicles. Soon after the coronavirus outbreak subsided within the country, Chinese authorities announced new policies to support the auto and electric vehicle industries.\nThese Chinese companies are traded through American depository shares (ADS) that contain certain risks. There are financial reporting and transparency risks with these companies, and on top of that, the newer companies are being classified as \"emerging growth\" companies that are already exempt from certain transparency requirements set out in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Like the previous EV stock, these stocks have also been very volatile.\nIn addition to legacy auto manufacturers like BYD, there are also three Chinese EV companies that are publicly traded through American depositary shares.\nBYD Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:BYDDY)\nBYD, which means build your dreams, is the automotive subsidiary of the Chinese multinational BYD Co Ltd. It was founded in January 2003, following BYD Company's acquisition of Tsinchuan Automobile Company. The company produces automobiles, buses, electric bicycles, forklifts, rechargeable batteries, and trucks. The current model range of automobiles includes electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and petrol-engined vehicles. Thirteen years ago, on the advice of his famously skeptical lieutenant, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett made a $232 million investment in BYD, a relatively unknown Chinese car company.\nBy parlaying BYD's rechargeable battery technology into a fast-growing carmaking operation, it gained a foothold in the fledgling electric vehicle market, building longer-lasting batteries and cheaper vehicles than American and Japanese manufacturers were managing to do at the time. In BYD, Buffett and Munger believed they had found a company with a shot at one day becoming the largest player in a global automobile market that was inevitably going electric.\nBYD's start to 2021 was strong with 19,871 plug-in electric cars sold in January in China, including hybrid plug-ins. That was a big increase over 2020 but not as much as 2019.\nLI Auto (LI)\nLixiang, formerly known as Chehejia (\"Car and Home\"), was founded in 2015 and went public in the U.S. on July 30th, 2020. It is a Beijing-based electric-vehicle startup with vertically integrated manufacturing. It designs, researches, manufactures, sells, and offers services featuring a few models of electric vehicles.\nThe company's SUVs are hybrids of a sort. They use electric motors (one on the front axle and one on the rear), but those motors are powered by a combination of a 40.5kWh battery packanda 1.2-liter turbocharged engine paired to a 45-liter fuel tank and a 100kW electric generator, which generates power for the battery pack in real-time. The idea is that the car can be driven for about 100 miles on battery power alone, but it has a total range of nearly 500 miles when leveraging the combustion engine generator.\nThe Company's primary product is an SUV under its brand Li ONE. It also sells peripheral products and provides related services, such as charging stalls, vehicle internet connection services, and extended lifetime warranties. Li Auto is looking to sell a variety of SUVs built on its hybrid technology that range from around $21,000 to about $70,000. The company started shipping its first model in late 2019. It's a midsize SUV is well-appointed and has lots of touchscreens and technology. A full-size premium version is planned for release in 2022.\nDeliveries of Li ONEs were 14,464 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a 67.0% quarter-over-quarter increase and setting a new quarterly record. Deliveries for the full year 2020 reached 32,624 vehicles. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $635 million.\nLI auto went public on July 30th, 2020, raising $1.1 billion at an initial price of $15.50 per share but quickly reached almost $24. It is currently valued at approximately $37 billion at a price of approximately $25.72 per share.\nXPeng (XPEV)\nXiaopeng (XPeng) Motors is a Chinese electric vehicle and technology company that designs and manufactures smart cars. It was founded in 2015 and went public on August 27, 2020, using American depository shares, raising about $1 billion. To date, it has raised about $2.6 billion.\nXPeng aims its EVs at technology-savvy middle-class Chinese consumers, with prices ranging from $22,000 to $45,000 after government subsidies. In some ways, it is a Tesla knock-off at a much lower price. XPeng started production of the G3 in November 2018, and as of July 31, 2020, delivered 18,741. It started production of the P7 and began delivery in May 2020, and as of July 31, 2020, it had delivered 1,966 EVs. The P7 has a range of more than 400 miles. It plans to launch a third Smart EV, a sedan, in 2021. The G3 was among the top-three best-selling electric SUVs in China in 2019.\nXPeng is interesting because it has a platform strategy and is moving aggressively into autonomous driving. It uses a platform strategy to expand product offerings by launching one Smart EV model each year to broaden the addressable market. It builds new models on two highly flexible Smart EV platforms, called David and Edward, respectively. The David platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,600 millimeters to 2,800 millimeters, and the Edward platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,800 millimeters to 3,100 millimeters. It also adopted a platform approach for software systems.\nXPeng claims to be developing an autonomous driving capability for its EVs. The P7 is the first production vehicle to feature the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Xavier system-on-a-chip (SoC) autonomous driving platform. The company's Smart Electric Platform Architecture (SEPA) runs on 2 chips - NVIDIA for the XPILOT and Qualcomm's Snapdragon™ 820A for intelligent services and infotainment, including cameras inside and outside, radars, HD-map, and ultrasonic sensors. Like Tesla, it claims it can create sufficiently-autonomous driving without lidar.\nTo enhance brand recognition and allow more people to experience its Smart EVs, it deployed a small number of Smart EVs in a ride-hailing service in Guangzhou on a trial basis, but it has no current plan to scale up a ride-hailing service.\nXpeng sees first-quarter 2021 deliveries rising 450% year-over-year to 12,500 vehicles. Revenues are expected to increase 533% from a year ago. The company didn't provide bottom-line estimates for the quarter, but will likely post another net loss as it ramps up manufacturing, invests in R&amp;D, and builds out a new manufacturing plant set to open in 2022.\nXpeng reported selling 12,964 vehicles in Q4 2020, up 303% from a year ago. It delivered a total of 27,041 vehicles in 2020, up 112%. It makes the P7 sedan, a rival to the made-in-China Tesla Model 3, and the small G3 SUV.\nThe stock opened on August 27, 2020 at a price of $15 and a valuation of $11 billion, but its stock jumped more than 40% shortly after. Its current valuation is about $35 billion at a stock price of approximately $36.13 per share. It had about $300 million in revenue in 2019 with a loss of about $500 million.\nNio (NIO)\nUnlike previous companies, Nio has been a public company for some time. It originally went public in the U.S. back in September of 2018, selling IPO shares at $6.26 and raising $1 billion.\nNio's IPO was far from smooth. After going public at $6.26 per share, it traded down to nearly $1. Then in the middle of the coronavirus outbreak, Nio received a much-needed investment of $1 billion from investors, including state-backed entities.\nNio designs, jointly manufactures, and sells smart and connected premium electric vehicles, attempting to develop next-generation technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving, and artificial intelligence. Joint manufacturing means that it uses a state-owned contract manufacturer to build its cars.\nNio plans to provide customers with comprehensive, convenient, and innovative charging solutions and other user-centric services. It began deliveries of the ES8, a 7-seater high-performance premium electric SUV in China in June 2018, and its variant, the six-seater ES8, in March 2019. Nio officially launched the ES6, a 5-seater high-performance premium electric SUV, in December 2018 and began deliveries in June 2019. It officially launched the EC6, a 5-seater smart premium electric Coupe SUV, in December 2019 with deliveries in 2020.\nNio sold 17,353 EVs in Q4/2020 and 43,728 for the year. It warned a shortage in chips and batteries will force a production slowdown to 7,500 a month in Q2 from 10,000 vehicles a month in February.\nNio currently trades at more than $43 per share, including a big jump recently, for a valuation of approximately $48 billion. It had revenue of $2.3 billion in 2019 for a loss of $3.8 billion.\nSummary\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this should provide exciting new investment opportunities. However, the investment terrain is complex. There are dozens of new start-ups where the public can now invest that were previously exclusively venture capital investment opportunities. Many of these are following different roads to success. There are legacy auto manufacturers that could prosper or get destroyed in this transition. There are some exciting new EV company opportunities in China. And then there is Tesla.\nThis EV roadmap is intended to help investors explore different roads to investment by explaining the basic strategies for these EV companies. These roads can have different opportunities and risks, and the roadmap helps to frame these. Above all, valuation is an overriding risk that is highlighted throughout this article.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>New Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNew Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-19 14:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.\nLast October, I wrote a popular article providing...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车","01211":"比亚迪股份","NKLA":"Nikola Corporation","LI":"理想汽车","GP":"GreenPower Motor Company Inc.","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","GOEV":"Canoo Inc.","WKHS":"Workhorse Group, Inc.","F":"福特汽车","002594":"比亚迪","TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来","FSR":"菲斯克","HYLN":"Hyliion Holdings Corp."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1196402560","content_text":"Summary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.\nLast October, I wrote a popular article providing a roadmap for investing in electric vehicles, but since then, so much has changed: new entrants, new strategies, fluctuating valuations, etc.\nSo, I updated and greatly expanded the previous EV investment roadmap.\nThis update includes a deeper look at valuations for 23 EV companies with revenue projections, when available.\nIt also classifies these EV companies into their primary market categories and summarizes their different strategies.\n\nPhoto by Sven Loeffler/iStock via Getty Images\nMy article Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap published five months ago, was popular, and some followers have requested an update. Many new EV companies entered the market, most of them through SPACs. Valuations fluctuated wildly, and there has been a great deal of publicity around these companies.\nThis new updated EV investment roadmap is greatly expanded. In addition to updating the strategies and progress of companies previously discussed, I expanded the number of companies covered. This article also groups EV companies into their primary markets, enabling better comparisons and evaluation of market opportunities. In addition, it includes a comparative valuation chart showing every company's market cap with a comparison to projected revenue, where possible. This takes advantage (good or bad) of looking at the long-term revenue forecasts provided in SPAC mergers that public companies can't make.\nIn addition to the EV manufacturers discussed here, there are also EV investment opportunities in charging station companies, battery manufacturers, and battery materials companies. These were covered in the original roadmap and may also be updated in a later article.\nApproximately 2 million EVs were sold in 2019, and although the number declined along with all auto sales in 2020, it is forecasted to increase in 2021 and reach 8-10 million by 2025. Some forecast that EV sales will be greater than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2030, or even earlier. The automobile market appears to be moving toward a historical transformation, and exceptional investment gains can be made by anticipating new emerging industries and investing in the eventual winners of those new industries. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)are obvious examples. Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to create a new emerging industry.\nThere are also significant risks. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to be released in the next three years, which will drive rapid growth in EV sales. However, the expected sales from these new models, as well as the increasing expectations from Tesla, most likely exceed the total projected market. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the companies covered here won't exist five years from now. It reminds me of the internet bubble of the late 1990s when scores of internet-based companies went public with little or no revenue. Almost all of these failed within three years -- however, a couple, including Amazon, went on to enormous success.\nEVs provide a major new investment opportunity with high risks. To succeed, you need to have a clear EV investment roadmap.\nSo, how can you invest in this new emerging market? The EV landscape is complex and investment opportunities are varied. While Tesla is the unquestioned leader in EVs, some consider it overvalued and unlikely to show exceptional returns to new investors. The current U.S. legacy automakers are committed to introducing many new EVs in the next few years, and they have some entrenched advantages with volume manufacturing capabilities, a dealer infrastructure, and loyal customers. There are exciting new EV start-ups in the U.S. that have come public this year, mostly through Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), and there are several interesting publicly traded Chinese EV manufacturers.\nThis new roadmap for EV investment classifies companies into three primary markets segments:\n\nTheConsumer Retailsegment includes EVs sold to consumers individually, such as SUVs, pickup trucks, sedans, etc.\nTheCommercial Deliverysegment includes local delivery EV vans and trucks sold to fleets.\nTheMedium- and Long-Haul Truckingsegment includes heavier Class 4 - Class 8 trucks, as well as special industrial vehicles.\n\nIn addition, it categorizesLegacy ManufacturersandChinese EV Companies. This enables investors to evaluate investment opportunities by considering unique opportunities within each market segment.\nThere is an enormous amount of investment optimism for EVs, and retail investors have been aggressively buying into EV stocks with seemingly no regard for valuation. Then there is the additional challenge of valuing companies with no revenue, especially those coming public through SPACs. So, valuation is an important investment consideration.\nSo let's start by looking at an overview of comparative EV valuations.\nEV Investment Valuation Overview\nThe following chart summarizes valuations for 23 EV companies, including several legacy companies. For SPACs, market cap estimates are computed using the pro forma number of shares at closing, otherwise using the valuation of the SPAC prior to closing drastically underestimates the valuation, which may be misleading to novice investors. Price/Sales ratios (market cap divided by revenue) are used to compare valuations. As a benchmark, current P/S ratios vary. For example, auto and truck companies have a ratio of 2.7X. Software companies have the highest ratios of over 10X.\nIn the chart, companies that currently have revenue show current P/S ratios. Where projections are available, projected P/S ratios are computed. A note of caution, however. Many of the EV companies came public through SPACs and published their projections (which public companies cannot do), and many of these are likely to prove unrealistic.\nAll of the longer-term revenue projections come from the company (C) forecasts with a SPAC. Some of these may turn out to be accurate, not many are most likely unrealistic. Some, like Lucid, Faraday, and Arrival forecast hitting more than $10 billion in revenue in a few years, when it took Tesla more than 10. Things are different now and they might achieve these, but they could also find that it will take longer to complete development, ramp up production, and create enough customer demand. Many companies may also find that there will be significant capital requirements to achieve this type of growth, and shareholders will be diluted.\n\nTesla, the \"gold standard\" in EVs, has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, which many people believe is overvalued. Its market cap is approximately 20X 2020 revenue and 10X estimated 2022 revenue.\nTesla (TSLA)\nIn the U.S., and to a lesser extent in China, Tesla is the dominant EV provider. It has approximately 60% of the U.S. EV market and about 20% of the market in China. I own a Tesla and love it, but an investment in Tesla stock requires getting comfortable with its valuation. Tesla has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, although declining lately, which some consider still overvalued while others see upside potential.\nThe investment opportunity with Tesla is based on the expectation that it will continue to dominate the EV market, or at least maintain significant market share, despite much greater competition from the expected introduction of hundreds of new EV models in the next few years.\nThere is a great deal already published about Tesla, so I'll move on.\nLegacy Automakers\nSome people think that the legacy automakers will simply fade away. Historically, that was the case in some other industries, but it is not going to happen to most automakers. They are not standing still waiting to become obsolete. Most have aggressive strategies to replace ICE vehicles with EVs. GM plans to invest $27 billion and build and launch as many as 30 new EV models by 2025. Ford plans to invest $29 billion in EVs by 2025 and launch as many as 16 EVs in the next two years. Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY)has also committed billions to develop new EVs.\nThe competitive advantage that legacy automakers have in selling their new EVs is their dealer network. Will new EV customers prefer to continue going to their regular auto dealer to buy their new EV?\nAlmost all legacy automakers worldwide are developing and launching EVs including Volkswagen, Peugeot, Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi, Hyundai/Kia. Let's look a little more closely at GM and Ford as the leaders in the U.S.\nGeneral Motors (GM)\nGM has committed to introducing 20 new electric vehicles by 2023, including EVs across Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC, and Buick. It recently announced that it has already sold out the first-year production of its Hummer electric pickup. By mid-decade, it expects to sell a million EVs per year in its two largest markets: North America and China. As a reference point, Tesla reported deliveries of 367,500 vehicles globally in 2019.\nGM has a solid platform strategy for its EVs. It plans on building its EVs using five interchangeable drive units and three different motors from its Ultium Drive System platform. Ultium energy options range from 50 to 200 kWh, which could enable an estimated range of up to 400 miles. Most of its EVs will have 400-volt battery packs and up to 200 kW fast-charging capability while the truck platform will have 800-volt battery packs and 350 kW fast-charging capabilities.\nThe key building blocks of the Ultium battery system are large-scale, high-energy cells. Engineered in partnership with LG Energy Solutions, they use both advanced chemistry and a smart cell design that's optimized for a broad portfolio of EVs. GM engineers and scientists are actively researching and testing new elements in battery chemistry to lower costs and improve charge times. Ultium can contain either vertically- or horizontally-stacked cells to integrate into vehicle design: vertically for trucks, SUVs, and crossovers, or horizontally for cars and performance vehicles. As new chemistry is developed and becomes available, the battery management system could digitally update the modules.\nGM also has other EV opportunities with its BrightDrop commercial EV service and its Cruise subsidiary. BrightDrop will not just sell delivery EVs, it will provide an entire service platform for commercial delivery customers. Its set of electric delivery vehicles starts with the EV600 and includes the BrightDrop EP1, a pod-like electric pallet. SeeGeneral Motors' Aggressive EV/AV Strategies May Payoff Big.\nWith its highest stock price of $61.65, GM's current market cap is approximately $89 billion, increasing primarily because of its progress with EVs. This approximately 3X valuation in 2018, but still only 13% of Tesla.\nFord (F)\nFord is also investing heavily in EVs. It just introduced the Mustang Mach-E, a battery-powered crossover with sports car styling, and plans to introduce an all-electric version of its best-selling F-150 pickup later this year. Also, planned is an electric edition of the full-size Transit van, which has been popular in the commercial delivery market. Ford has confirmed plans to build a luxury Lincoln crossover on a battery-powered platform provided by Rivian. The automaker also plans to introduce two new midsize electric crossovers, one each for the Ford and Lincoln brands by 2023.\nMustang Mach-E. Source: Ford\nFord's market cap is approximately $51 billion, twice its previous market cap, and also increasing.\nConsumer Retail EV Companies\nThe consumer retail market has some unique characteristics for new EV companies. Sales are made individually, not in fleets. This diversifies the risk upon launch because only a sufficient number of customers need to be attracted to the new EV. A wave of popularity can provide terrific momentum.\nHowever, the lack of a dealer network can be an impediment. Selling EVs directly to consumers instead of through dealers is prohibited in most states. By law, auto manufacturers can't compete with franchised dealers. These are laws that go back many decades to protect dealers. This can be a major impediment for new companies without established independent dealer franchises. So, new AV companies. like Tesla, need to sell their vehicles online. Tesla has successfully done this, but it took a lot of work and time. Lack of a dealer network also creates impediments in service.\nIn addition, over the next 4-5 years, autonomous capabilities will be increasingly important to luxury vehicles. This may prove to be a challenge to start-up EV companies because they can't afford to develop this technology.\nLet's look closer at the alternative consumer retail EV investments.\nLucid Motors (CCIV)\nLucid was founded in 2007 under the name Atieva and originally focused on building electric vehicle batteries and powertrains for other vehicle manufacturers. The company rebranded itself as Lucid Motors in October 2016 and shifted its strategy to develop an all-electric, high-performance, luxury vehicle. Shortly after that, it encountered financial difficulties and struggled to get short-term funding. In 2018 it raised more than $1 billion in investment, primarily from Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund, and gave up a majority of the company.\nLucid Motors reached an agreement to become a publicly-traded company through a merger with the SPAC Churchill Capital IV Corp., in one of the largest deals SPAC EV deals. The combined company, in which Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund will continue to be the largest shareholder, had a transaction equity value of $11.75 billion (for $10/share). At the same time, it closed a PIPE investment priced at $15 a share, giving it an implied pro forma equity value of $24 billion. Rumors about this deal circulated before the transaction was formally announced, making it one of the most anticipated SPAC deals. The hype and speculation drove up the stock price of Churchill Capital IV Corp. from its opening price of $10 a share to almost $60. I believe that some of this may have been driven by novice SPAC investors who didn't realize that the valuation of CCIV didn't include the eventual valuation of Lucid. The share price dropped more than 30% after the details of the deal were announced. It's also likely that Lucid renegotiated the terms of the merger based on the price jump.\nThe company's first product is the Lucid Air, a well-equipped luxury electric vehicle that features 406 miles of projected range and 480 horsepower with a starting price of $77,400, or $69,900 after the U.S. Federal Tax Credit of $7,500. This new Lucid Air model is positioned as a high-performance, ultra-efficient luxury EV sedan in a line of future vehicles that are expected to include Lucid Air Touring, Grand Touring, and Dream Edition versions.\nThe company plans to begin production and deliveries of the Lucid Air in North America in the second half of 2021. Previously the company aimed to begin deliveries earlier in 2021. It intends to sell the car in Europe in 2022, followed by China in 2023. Lucid vehicles will be produced at its new factory in Casa Grande, Arizona. The company plans to expand the factory in phases in the coming years to have the capacity to produce 365,000 units per year at scale. The initial phase of the $700 million factory construction was completed late last year and will have the capacity to produce 30,000 vehicles a year.\nLucid also apparently has a commitment to build an assembly plant in Saudi Arabia, which was rumored to be a condition of the $1 billion investment from the Saudi public fund. The Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund also provided $600 million in bridge financing and invested in the SPAC deal as well. So, while this assembly plant may be expensive and may not be critical, it will most likely need to happen.\nLucid has ambitious plans to achieve $14 billion in revenue in 2025, and its current stock price at $29.17, which gives it a market cap of more than $46 billion, may already reflect those ambitions. Its market cap is roughly the same as Ford.\nFisker (FSR)\nFisker, which had its origins with Fisker Automotive, is an interesting story that ended in bankruptcy. Henrik Fisker originally co-founded Fisker Automotive in 2007. He was responsible for designing many premium cars such as the Aston Martin. Subsequently, Fisker Automotive had to deal with a Tesla lawsuit against Fisker Automotive alleging it stole Tesla's technology, a controversial $528.7 million conditional loan from the Department of Energy, a recall of its battery produced by A123, and the loss of several hundred vehicles in hurricane Sandy. Henrik Fisker resigned in March 2013 because of disagreements over business strategy and in November 2013, Fisker filed its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case.\nHowever, Henrik Fisker retained the Fisker brand and trademarks, and in 2016 he started another electric vehicle company named Fisker Inc. with the Fisker brand and trademarks. In 2019, Fisker shifted from developing a sports car with a solid-state battery to the Ocean SUV featuring a lithium-ion battery, which it later abandoned for a solid-state battery.\nFisker is positioning itself in a unique segment for those who want the most environmentally friendly EV. While this may be an early growth segment for EVs, it's difficult to estimate its eventual competitive advantage and the size of this environmentally-friendly market segment.\nThe Ocean is a crossover made of recycled metal and plastic with an expected base price of $37,499, and an expected lease of less than $400 a month. Fisker's plan is essentially a lease-only business model that lets customers keep a vehicle for years or return it at any time. It aims to source motors, batteries, and other components from technical partnerships with automakers and will outsource production from existing auto plants. Fisker is currently taking reservations at $250 for the Ocean. It also announced an agreement with Foxconn to jointly develop a vehicle pioneering a new market segment to be sold globally under the Fisker brand commencing in Q4 2023. at the end of 2022. Production will start at Magna Steyr's manufacturing facilities in Europe. At the end of February 2021, it had 12,467 cancellable reservations.\nFisker Ocean. Source: Fisker\nFisker went public using a SPAC (Spartan Energy). The original combination with SPAQ in October 2020 was valued at $2.9 billion with a cash investment of approximately $1 billion. The stock currently trades at approximately $21 per share, after reaching a high of $28.50, from the original price of $10, which is a market cap of $4.6 billion. Fisker projects $3.3 billion in revenue in 2023. It had almost $1 billion in cash at the end of 2020 and expected to use almost half of this in 2021: $250 million on operating expenses and $250 million in capital investments. If the Ocean is delayed into 2023, Fisker risks missing its revenue objective and will potentially need additional cash to complete development and launch.\nFaraday Future (PSAC)\nFaraday Future was originally established in May 2014 by Chinese businessman Jia Yueting. It is headquartered in Los Angeles and has offices in Silicon Valley, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu. Faraday Future also had a turbulent history. In 2016, it struggled financially, and in 2017 some key executives departed over a dispute about financial issues. They later founded Canoo.\nIn December 2018 the company announced layoffs due to a cash crunch and financial troubles. The company's founder Jia Yueting filed for personal bankruptcy in the United States' federal court in Delaware on October 14, 2019. Following Jia's personal bankruptcy, he decided to step down from his role as CEO of Faraday Future in order to assume a new position as the Chief Product and User Officer. He was replaced as CEO by Carsten Breitfeld, the former CEO at rival electric vehicle startup Byton.\nSomehow, Faraday was able to raise $2.3 billion in private funding over 5 rounds from a variety of investors. In early 2018, it received $1.5 billion in funding from an undisclosed investor from Hong Kong.\nFaraday's flagship product offering will be the FF 91, featuring 1,050 HP, 0-60 mph in less than 2.4 seconds, zero gravity seats with the largest 60-degree reclining angles, and a user experience designed to create a mobile, connected, and luxurious living space. The FF 91 is targeted to launch in 2022.\nFF 91. Source: Faraday Future\nIts strategic partners include one of China's top three OEMs and a critical Chinese city, which the company believes will help establish its presence in the Chinese vehicle market.\nFaraday Future plans several cars based on its Variable Platform Architecture. FF 91 is the first production vehicle and flagship model. Pricing will range between $120,000 and upwards of $200,000, which places it against formidable opponents. Faraday Future is already looking forward to expanding its range with a pair of smaller models named FF 81 and FF 71. The FF 81 is planned to be priced at $75,000 to 95,000 with a 2023 release. The FF 71 is planned to be priced at $45,000 to $65,000 with a planned release of 2024.\nThe Primary Manufacturing Facility for FF 91 is in Hanford, CA with contract manufacturing for future models in Gunsan, South Korea.\nFaraday Future is planning high-Level automation with a Level-3 capable system using a redundant safety architecture based on NVIDIA Xavier System-on-a-chip. It will be capable of highway auto-drive and hardware ready for advanced auto-drive. It is targeting full autonomous valet parking & summon in any parking lot or structure. Eventually, it expects full auto-drive, including full 360˚ sensor coverage for advanced auto-drive & auto-park features.\nIn January 2021, Faraday Future announced that the company would go public through a reverse merger with the special purpose acquisition company Property Solutions Acquisition Corp. (PSAC). The combined company will be valued at $3.4 billion. Faraday Future is expected to set up contract manufacturing operations in China through their partnership with Geely. Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn is also expected to serve as an additional strategic partner.\nFaraday Future projects $10.5 billion in revenue in 2024 and $21.5 billion in 2025. Revenue is expected to start in 2022 with the delivery of 2,400 vehicles for $504 million. Most likely these projections could prove to be optimistic. At a current stock price of approximately $12.80, it has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nLordstown Motors (RIDE)\nLordstown Motors based in Lordstown, Ohio, was originally founded in 2018 by Steve Burns, the former CEO of Workhorse Group. The company licensed technology from Workhorse in return for royalties and a 10% ownership. Lordstown is named after the famous GM Lordstown manufacturing plant, which it acquired in November 2019 in an unusual transaction. GM announced that it was closing the plant and was under a great deal of pressure for that decision. So, GM \"sold\" the plant to a company that was renamed Lordstown for an estimated $20 million that it loaned to the acquiring company. Subsequently, the sale was redefined to be part of a $75 million investment by GM, of which $50 million was an in-kind exchange for the plant.\nLordstown went public through the SPAC DiamondPeak Holdings Corp. in 2020. It currently has more than 400 employees.\nIts first product is the Lordstown Endurance, a full-sized EV pickup truck. Lordstown is positioning Endurance for the pickup fleet market segment. The expected price is $52,000+, and it claimed to have more than 100,000 pre-orders by January 2021. However, a recent research article published by a short seller claimed \"Our research has revealed that Lordstown's order book consists of fake or entirely non-binding orders, from customers that generally do not even have fleets of vehicles.\" Lordstown is disputing that article.\nIt believes the fleet pickup market segment is underserved with no current EV-focused competition. It estimates that the full-sized pick-up truck fleet market is 1.2 million vehicles per year in the U.S., but it's more fragmented than other truck fleets. Pickup \"fleets\" tend to be much smaller and local, so there may not be much of a market distinction for a small company buying several EV pickups from a traditional auto dealer. About half of the total U.S. pickup market is classified as fleet sales, meaning more than one.\nEven though Lordstown is targeting the commercial fleet market, it is a similar product to the Ford EV F-150. So I classify it in the consumer EV category. It is a class 2 vehicle. Lordstown also may enter the SUV market in the longer-term.\nThe Endurance will compete against future models from Rivian and Tesla, as well as Ford and GM in ICE pick-ups and their upcoming EV pick-ups. Ford plans on selling its EV F-150 in mid-2022. Initial production of the Endurance is expected in the second half of 2021, so it may have a short market advantage. Nevertheless, it forecasts selling 65,000 vehicles in 2023 and 107,000 in 2024. These estimates could be a large percentage of the EV pick-up market in those years.\nAt the SPAC merger, the implied valuation for Lordstown was $1.6 billion, including a $500 million PIPE and the $75 million by GM. Lordstown's financial projections appear to be aggressive. It projects to start shipping the Endurance in late 2021 with projected revenue in 2022 of $1.7 billion, increasing to $5.8 billion in 2024. Its stock price at approximately $13.60 values the company at a market cap of approximately $2.2 billion. The value of the company depends on the likelihood of achieving its projections.\nA fleet sales strategy makes sense for Lordstown since it would be too expensive to build a retail sales and service capability. However, it's not clear that this will become a distinct competitive advantage. Some small fleets may still prefer to buy their EV pickups from established local dealers with service capabilities.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nCanoo started as Evelozcity in 2017 and rebranded as Canoo in the spring of 2019. Canoo is a Los Angeles-based company that develops electric vehicles. It has over 350 employees. Canoo has designed a modular electric platform purpose-built to deliver maximum vehicle interior space, which is adaptable to support a wide range of vehicle applications for consumers and businesses. Canoo expects to launch its first consumer model in 2022, simply named the Canoo that will be available by subscription, followed shortly after by a multi-purpose delivery vehicle and a sports vehicle, each built off of the same underlying platform. Canoo went public using a SPAC (Hennessy Capital Acquisition) and now trades as GOEV.\nCanoo's all-electric skateboard-like platform is designed to support both consumer retail and commercial vehicle configurations. The EV leverages Canoo's flat skateboard architecture for a high level of usable interior space. Its commercial vehicle program, expected in 2023, addresses a projected $50B+ last-mile delivery market with an EV platform that maximizes cargo volume.\nHyundai Motor Group said it would jointly develop an electric vehicle platform with the company.\nCanoo's platform strategy is interesting. It could be used as an EV platform for custom fleets of delivery vehicles. It has no AV development, but it claims to be \"AV Ready\" which could be useful for AV companies wanting to build custom AV delivery fleets.\nIts all-electric multi-purpose delivery vehicle is expected to be priced starting at approximately $33,000. It is based on Canoo's proprietary electric platform and will be offered in two initial size variants, with others to follow. Limited availability will begin in 2022, with scaled production and launch planned for 2023. Customers can pre-order the multi-purpose delivery vehicle for a refundable deposit of $100 per vehicle\nIt plans to offer two multi-purpose delivery vehicles: the MPDV1 and the larger MPDV2. The first has a 200-foot cargo volume and a range of 130-200 miles. It offers more capacity than today's ICE delivery vehicles at an affordable price with urban mobility enabled by a space-efficient footprint. The vehicle is also designed to fit within many height-restricted areas like parking garages.\nThe MPDV2 has a cargo volume of 450 feet and a range of 90-190 miles. Its roof and step-in height enable individuals to easily walk-in the vehicle and accommodate a standing position while inside.\nThe original SPAC transaction provided approximately $600 million, with a pro forma equity value of approximately $2.4 billion. Like other SPAC mergers, its stock price has fluctuated. It currently trades at about $15.90 per share for a market cap of approximately $3.7 billion. Canoo projects $2.0 billion in revenue in 2025 from about $500 million in engineering services, $1.2 billion from its consumer vehicle subscriptions, and the remainder from its commercial program. Canoo expects revenue of more than $300 million in 2022 after the launch of its lifestyle consumer vehicle.\nSince its first products are aimed at consumers, as is most of its forecasted 2025 revenue, I categorize it primarily as a consumer EV company. However, I think the design of that Canoo vehicle may not attract enough customers. More importantly, its subscription service way of selling its EV to consumers is risky. I think it has more potential in the commercial market, however, a dual strategy (consumer and commercial) is challenging. I like its skateboard platform design and that could prove to be a competitive advantage.\nRivian\nAlthough not yet public, I include Rivian because it has plans for an IPO as soon as Sept 2021, although it could slip into 2022. There are rumors that the company is targeting a market valuation of approximately $50B. Rivian has already raised more than $8 billion to date from Amazon, Ford, T. Rowe Price, and others.\nRivian has developed and vertically integrated a connected electric platform that can be flexibly applied to a range of applications, including the company's adventure products, as well as B2B products such as the Amazon last-mile delivery vans. The company's initial products, the R1T and R1S, provide a combination of performance, off-road capability, and utility. These vehicles will be produced at Rivian's manufacturing plant in Normal, Ill., with customer deliveries expected to begin in summer 2021. The launch of the R1S three-row electric SUV will follow in August.\nAdditional lower-priced models are being planned. The expected R2 series would include at least two smaller electric vehicles to coincide with the smaller platform, then another platform for R3.\nCommercial Delivery EV Companies\nEV truck companies differ based on the type of truck they are developing. The technology and markets are very different, so I separate them into two categories. The first category includes commercial delivery vehicles.\nCompanies making EV delivery vehicles have some major advantages that could make them good investments. First, delivery vehicles typically travel less than 250 miles during a day, so they can be conveniently recharged overnight. Secondly, they are typically sold in large quantities to fleets. This means that building a retail sales infrastructure is not necessary. It only requires a small salesforce. In addition, maintenance can also be provided at the fleet's operational center, so not as many service centers are required.\nThe disadvantage in this market is that there are a relatively small number of customers that buy in large volumes, so if the EV manufacturer can't get enough large customers, they may not be able to stay in business. GM estimates the combined market opportunity for parcel and food delivery, as well as reverse logistics, in the U.S. will be more than $850 billion by 2025.\nThe commercial market is expected to be a major growth area for EVs. Other start-up automakers like Rivian as well as legacy automakers such as Ford, Daimler, and GM have announced plans to enter the segment. GM recently announced its BrightDrop ecosystem for commercial customers that includes an all-new electric delivery van, the EV600 available by the end of 2021, as well as an integrated autonomous pallet and related services.\nThis group of EV companies focuses primarily on commercial delivery. In general, these are in the light-duty trucks category, although it also includes some medium-duty trucks. This generally includes the following commercial truck classes:\n\nClass 1: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 0-6,000 pounds or 0-2,722 kilograms.\nClass 2: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 6,001-10,000 pounds or 2,722-4,536 kilograms.1\nClass 3: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 10,001-14,000 pounds or 4,536-6,350 kilograms.\n\nIt can also include somewhat larger medium-duty EV delivery trucks:\n\nClass 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.\nClass 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.\n\nEV delivery trucks also have an advantage over ICE vehicles because they can have a greater delivery storage space. Smaller buses and transit vehicles are also included in this category.\nLast-mile package delivery is not an immediate-term autonomous vehicle opportunity because it requires a delivery person to be on the truck anyway.\nWorkhorse Group (WKHS)\nWorkhorse has been a public company for ten years. Originally AMP Electric Vehicles, it was established in 2007 as a developmental-stage vehicle electrification company, focusing on conversions. AMP Electric Vehicles went public in 2010 trading on the OTC market under the AMPD symbol. When the economic benefits of conversion became less certain, it pivoted away from passenger vehicles and began to focus on electrifying commercial vehicles. AMP acquired the Workhorse brand and the Workhorse custom chassis assembly plant in Union City. In March of 2013, AMP formally changed its name to Workhorse Group Incorporated.\nThe Company designs and builds a last-mile delivery electric vehicle. The C-Series EVs cover the larger size of commercial delivery vehicles in Classes 3-5. As part of its solutions, it also develops cloud-based, real-time telematics performance monitoring systems. It sells its vehicles to fleet customers directly and through its primary distributor, Ryder Systems. It is currently focused on bringing the C-Series electric delivery truck to market and fulfilling the existing backlog of orders.\nThe C-Series looks like a viable EV replacement for the 350,000 last-mile delivery vehicles sold in the U.S. annually. It recently announced an increased driving range from 100 miles to 160, which should open more market opportunities. It has a viable short-term go-to-market strategy selling fleets to delivery companies. It currently has test vehicles with UPS, DHL, FedEx, Amazon, and Walmart.\nWorkhorse recently lost out on the United States Postal Services Next Generation Delivery Vehicle project, however, it is in the process of challenging this decision. Additionally, its investment in Lordstown also provides an indirect investment opportunity. On November 7, 2019, the Company entered a transaction with Lordstown Motors to grant LMC a perpetual and worldwide license to certain intellectual property relating to its W-15 electric pickup truck platform and related technology in exchange for royalties, equity interest (approximately 10%) in LMC, and other considerations. This was a $320 million asset for Workhorse at the end of 2020.\nWorkhorse received a significant increase in orders in Q4/2020 but built just seven trucks in the fourth quarter due to production systems and supply chain issues. Workhorse plans to continue to take it slow, striving to build three of its composite-body battery-electric trucks a day in March with a plan to reach 10 trucks a day by the end of June. This makes its original 2021 goal of producing 1,800 trucks unlikely. It partnered with Hitachi and Hitachi Capital America (\"HCA\") to improve the Company's manufacturing, operational, and supply chain capabilities as well as to develop a national dealer network to support Workhorse's sales with vehicle financing options for both dealers and customers.\nWorkhorse has a market cap of approximately $1.9 billion. While Workhorse had ongoing revenue, unlike many other new EV companies, its revenue is still insignificant. It had a revenue of $1.4 million in 2020 and $377,000 in 2019. It has a backlog of over 8,000 vehicles but doesn't expect to be able to build many of those in 2021. It raised $270 million in capital over several financings, providing the Company with additional capital to build its backlog. It had cash of $215 million as of March 1, 2021. Because Workhorse is a traditional public company, it hasn't made long-term financial projections like SPAC-based companies.\nElectric Last Mile (FIII)\nElectric Last Mile, based in Troy Michigan, was founded by Jason Luo, former CEO of Ford China before it was acquired by China's Ningbo Joyson Electronic for $920 million in 2016, including James Taylor, former CEO of GM's Hummer brand and former CEO of electric car maker Karma Automotive. Taylor serves as the company's top executive with Luo as the company's chairman.\nThe company plans to launch a small electric delivery van (class 1-2), called the UD-1, in the third quarter of 2021, and then introduce an Urban Utility vehicle (Class 2-3) in 2022. These are expected to compete with Workhorse, Rivian, Canoo, as well as the Ford eTransit and the GMC BV1, none of which is expected to be a Class 1 vehicle.\nThe company says it has 30,000 preorders for its van, representing more than $1 billion in sales. Electric Last Miles vehicles will be based on Sokon's commercial van made in China through a joint venture with Dongfeng Automobile Co Ltd. in order to accelerate development time.\nElectric Last Mile (ELM) is expected to manufacture the vans in a former General Motors Co. Hummer plant in Mishawaka, Ind., that the company is acquiring from China's Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co. Ltd. The plant has the capacity to produce 100,000 vehicles annually with plans to build approximately 4,000 UD-1 vans by the end of 2021. The UD-1 has a starting price of $32,500 and a range of 150 miles. The battery for the vehicle is expected to be supplied by the Chinese battery company CATL.\nELM believes that it has a competitive advantage because its first vehicle, the ELM Urban Delivery, is scheduled to be available in 2021. It is based on a proven, existing platform developed and sold by Sokon Group in the Asian market, where there are 30,000 of these electric delivery vehicles driving 1.5 million miles every day. At the close of the business combination, ELM will be an independent, U.S. company producing electric vehicles in the U.S. with Sokon Group providing access to its know-how, parts supply, and field and service data.\nELM expects that the Urban Delivery vehicle will be the first electric delivery vehicle coming to market in the class 1 category (GVW of 6,000 lbs or less) in the U.S. It will also have 35% more carrying volume compared to similar ICE delivery vehicles, a critical part of the value proposition. It also anticipates that its price and greater carrying volume will allow it to take market share from the class 2 category of vehicles as well.\nIts crossover product portfolio strategy targets commercial delivery vehicles spanning from class 1 to class 3, which represents over 80% of the last mile market.\nELM anticipates $122 million in revenue in 2021, rapidly increasing to $3 billion in 2025. The price of FIII stock increased immediately following its announcement with Electric Last Mile, rising more than 40% to $14.50, but now it has dropped closer to the original deal price to $10.25 for a market cap of approximately $1.5 billion.\nGreenPower Motor Company (GP)\nGreenPower Motor Company Inc. is a Canadian battery-electric bus manufacturer with multiple models of high- and low-floor vehicles, including transit buses, school buses, and shuttles. GreenPower offers commercial vehicles for delivery, public transit, schools, vanpooling, micro-transit, shuttles, and is developing a capability of autonomous operation. It went public on August 28, 2020.\nIn 2014 GreenPower launched its first purpose-built, battery-electric bus, the EV350, 40-foot transit bus. GreenPower received its first order in 2017 for ten EV350s from the City of Porterville, California.\nGreenPower's electric buses are purpose-built and designed to be all-electric, allowing it to put the battery and propulsion system in optimized locations that provide weight and structural advantages. Its primary EV is the EV Star with more than 120 vehicles delivered. It comes in several variations:\n\nEV Star - Up to 19 passengers\nEV Star Plus - Up to 24 passengers\nEV Star ADA - Passenger and curbside lift for ADA\nEV Star Cargo - 5,000 pounds of load\nEV Star Cargo Plus - 570 cubic feet of cargo space.\n\nIts EV school bus seats up to 90 students and has a range of up to 150 miles.\nGreenPower had revenue of $13.5 million in 2020 It has about $21 million in cash. It's an interesting alternative since it is already shipping EVs, has revenue, and also has a lower market cap of less than $1 billion. Since it did a traditional IPO, it hasn't published longer-term financial forecasts.\nArrival (CIIC)\nArrival was founded in 2015 in London to make a variety of commercial electric vehicles. It has approximately 1,200 employees across 11 cities in 8 countries. In November 2020, Arrival and the SPAC CIIG entered into a business combination agreement with an implied valuation of $5.39 billion.\nArrival plans on releasing four commercial EVs over the next few years.\n\nQ4/2021: An electric bus for 8-125 passengers and a range of 240-400km\nQ3/2022: An electric delivery van with a payload of 975-2,000kg and a range of 150-340km\n2022: A larger electric van with a payload of 4,000 kg and a range of 190-400km\n2023: a small vehicle platform with a range of 100-300km.\n\nThis mix provides a nice diversified portfolio of EVs. Arrival claims to have received orders from UPS for 10,000 vans. It plans a unique flexible manufacturing approach using micro-factories with each projected to manufacture 10,000 vans per year. All of its vehicles use a modular skateboard electric platform.\nArrival ambitiously projects $14.1 billion in revenue in 2024. Half of that revenue is expected from delivery vans, 22% from buses, and the rest from the large van and its small vehicle platform. With CIIC's stock price at $24.80 per share, Arrival's current market cap is relatively high at approximately $15.0 billion. Justifying its market cap depends on its ability to release, sell, and produce its four commercial EVs.\nProterra (ACTC)\nProterra is a commercial electric vehicle company with over a decade of production experience. The Company has designed an end-to-end, flexible technology platform that claims to deliver higher performance and a low total cost of ownership to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end customers.\nProterra, Inc., was originally founded in Golden, Colorado, by Dale Hill in 2004. Later the company wanted to take the lead in creating zero-emission, U.S.-based transit buses. In 2010 it moved its manufacturing plant from Golden, Colorado to Greenville, South Carolina. In 2015, Proterra was awarded a $3 million grant from the California Energy Commission to fund the design, development, and construction of the company's battery-electric transit bus manufacturing line in the City of Industry, California. It moved its headquarters from Greenville, South Carolina, to Burlingame, California, in October 2015. Proterra raised more than $600 million in funding.\nIt is going public through the SPAC ArcLight (ACTC) with a pro forma valuation of $1.6 billion. Upon completion of the transaction, Proterra expects to have up to $825 million in cash to fund growth initiatives, including R&D and the expansion of its next-generation battery program.\nProterra has three complementary businesses:\n\nProterra Powered: Delivering battery systems and electrification solutions to commercial vehicle manufacturers\nProterra Transit:Providing an electric transit bus OEMs\nProterra Energy:Offering turnkey charging and energy management solutions.\n\nThe company's battery systems have been proven in more than 16 million service miles driven by its fleet of transit vehicles and validated through partnerships with commercial vehicle OEMs. Proterra has produced and delivered more than 300 megawatt-hours of battery systems, more than 550 heavy-duty electric transit buses, and installed 54 megawatts of charging systems.\nProterra expected $193 million of revenue in 2020, with an estimated $750 million in existing orders and backlog. It projects $2.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with about 1/3 coming from its Transit business, and 2/3 From Powered & Energy. At ACTC's current stock price of $17.85, Proterra has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nRivian\nRivian (see earlier description in consumer retail) will also compete in the commercial delivery market. It has been working with Amazon (a major investor) to build large electric delivery vans for Prime. Developed specifically for Amazon, a small fleet of Prime vans is on the road now, testing deliveries to customers and gathering feedback. In late fall, it could grow to a large fleet as Rivian ramps up the volume.\nThe EV range of 150 miles is tailored to Amazon's use cycle to optimize the size, weight, and cost of the commercial vehicle. Rivian has three sizes of batteries, but Amazon is starting with just one of them.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nSee the previous summary under consumer retail EV.\nMedium and Long-Haul Trucking EV Companies\nCompanies developing medium- and long-haul EV trucks face a more difficult challenge with battery range. These trucks haul much more weight than commercial delivery vehicles and because they are designed for long distances, they can't stop every 200-300 miles for recharging.\nFor this reason, many of these companies are using unique hybrid technologies for their trucks. The EV trucks in this category are primarily heavy-duty but also include some medium-duty trucks and specialty vehicles. A couple of the companies focus on retrofitting trucks to be electric.\nMedium-Duty Trucks\nThe medium-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 4, 5, and 6:\n\nClass 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.\nClass 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.\nClass 6: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 19,501-26,000 pounds or 8,846-11,793 kilograms.1\n\nHeavy-Duty Trucks\nThe heavy-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 7 and 8:\n\nClass 7: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 26,001 to 33,000 pounds or 11,794-14,969 kilograms.\nClass 8: This class of trucks has a GVWR of greater than 33,001 pounds or 14,969 kilograms and includes all tractor-trailers.\n\nThe Tesla Semi is a battery vehicle planned for a range of 300 or 500 miles and a speed of 60 MPH with 80,000 lbs of cargo. Tesla plans to start shipping the Semi later this year when it expects to have sufficient cell volume to meet its needs with the production of its 4680 battery pack.\nNikola(NASDAQ:NKLA)\nNikola has been a very controversial company. Founded in 2015, it originally had two different strategies. Its primary strategy is to lease fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) Class-8 heavy trucks and provide the refueling infrastructure to corporate customers. Its second strategy was to develop the Badger EV truck using GM technology.\nNikola originally merged with a SPAC to go public, at an enterprise value of approximately $3.3 billion. On June 6th, 2020, its market cap jumped to more than $30 billion, then later it dropped because of problems with its originally planned deal with GM.\nNikola originally expected a deal with General Motors that included the production of the Nikola Badger EV pickup truck. The proposed arrangement was that GM would take a $2 billion equity stake in Nikola and in return would engineer and produce the Badger. In November 2020, GM and Nikola scrapped the original arrangement. Now it appears that GM will supply Nikola with only its Hydrotec hydrogen fuel-cell technology to integrate into the EV manufacturer's commercial class 7 and class 8 zero-emission semi-trucks. So, the Badger is probably dead.\nNikola now sees semi-trucks as the company's \"core business\" and fuel cells as an increasingly important segment of the semi-truck market thanks to their efficiency in weight and consumption. It expects to begin testing by the end of 2021.\nIt has received pre-orders from Anheuser-Busch and a few other companies, but it doesn't expect deliveries until 2023. Hydrogen fueling stations are key to its strategy, both providing a source of revenue and necessary fueling infrastructure for the trucks to operate, but they also cost a lot. In its March 2020 investor deck, Nikola said a single station capable of fueling 210 trucks a day would cost $16.6 million. Its initial planned network of 700 stations would cost roughly $11.6 billion.\nNikola was also accused of misrepresentation, and its executive chairman and founder stepped down.\nAt the time of the SPAC merger, it projected an optimistic forecast of more than $3 billion in revenue by 2024, with a net income of $145 million. Most of that revenue was expected to come from its Badger truck, which is no longer in the plans. Yet its market cap is still almost $6 billion.\nHyliion (HYLN)\nHyliion, founded in 2015 in Austin, went public in October 2020 through the SPAC Tortoise Acquisition Corp. (SHLL). In March 2019, automotive parts manufacturer Dana Inc. made an equity investment into Hyliion, and together they are manufacturing and marketing Class 8 EVs to Dana's customers, including Volvo, Navistar, and Peterbilt.\nHyliion's strategy is unique, and a very different strategy from Nikola. Essentially it generates electricity onboard the truck using compressed natural gas (CNG). This should be a benefit for longer-range trucking. Hyliion's Hypertruck concept involves an all-electric drivetrain utilizing Dana's electric motor, inverter, and axle technologies. The truck's batteries are fueled by onboard tanks of CNG. With some 700 CNG stations already operating nationwide, it believes that there no need to build out expensive superchargers or hydrogen infrastructure.\nKuwait-based logistics company, Agility, has already placed an order for 1,000 Hypertrucks with initial deliveries targeted in 2022. Combined with a fully electric drivetrain and a natural gas-powered onboard generator to recharge the battery, the Hypertruck ERX will provide more than 1,000 miles of range.\nHyliion will eventually compete with Nikola (FCEV) and the Tesla battery-based Semi, but it plans to have a longer range and lower operating costs. Its HyperTruck ERX is expected to be available in 2021. It also has a hybrid-electric truck.\nThe combination with SHLL had an estimated market cap of about $1.5 billion, with approximately $530 million going to the company, including a $325 million fully committed PIPE. At approximately $13.50 per share, its current market cap is approximately $2.2 billion, significantly down from its peak. Hyliion projects $2 billion in revenue in 2024, which it claims is only about 2% of the addressable market.\nXL Fleet (XL)\nXL Fleet is a 10-year old company that went public through the SPAC Pivotal. XL is different because it provides fleet electrification modifications for ICE trucks across a wide range of vehicle classes (class 2-5) and types. It has over 200 of the largest commercial and municipal fleets as customers, with more than 3,200 XL systems deployed and over 130 million miles driven by customers to date. XL's customer base includes FedEx, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Verizon, the City of Boston, Seattle Fire Department, Yale University, and Harvard University.\nXL's business model is essentially retrofitting existing trucks to be hybrids and then later expanding into fully electric truck conversions. It claims to be creating a fully integrated platform for this. It remains to be seen if the retrofitting business will continue to grow or will it diminish when more trucks are designed and manufactured with EV capabilities.\nUnlike some other EV companies that have no revenue yet because they are still developing products, XL is more of a small company doing low-volume retrofits. It had $7.2 million in revenue in 2019, $21 million in 2020, and estimates $76 million in 2021, but it forecasts $1.3 billion in revenue in 2024 in its investor presentation. It plans to do this by expanding its product line from hybrid to plug-in hybrid to fully electric across a broader range of trucks. It claims to have a $220 million sales pipeline for the next 12 months.\nShort-seller, Muddy Waters, claimed after talking to former XL Fleet employees, that it believed the company significantly exaggerated its order backlog, that the return on investment for the company's products was likely negative, and that it would not be able to compete with big car makers on electrification. The company thoroughly refuted these claims.\nThe original enterprise valuation was approximately $1.4 billion at a $10 share price for the merger. Its price jumped by about 35% but has since gone back down to $12.40 for a market cap of about $1.8 billion. Although XL Fleet has revenue and other EV companies don't, this may not be an advantage. It appears to be a small company for many years that has gone public at a high valuation with grand plans. The risks are in its ability to make a jump from $76 million in 2021 to $1.3 billion in 2024, as well as the question about retrofitting being replaced by new EV trucks by then.\nXos (NGAC)\nXos Trucks specializes in the field of manufacturing fully electric commercial vehicles. It features a software platform that is designed to accommodate an extensive variety of medium-duty bodies, wheelbase, and range requirements up to 200 miles. It was founded in 2016 and headquartered in North Hollywood, California. It received $20 million of investment in 2020 and now is going public through a merger with the SPAC ExtGen Acquisition Corporation (NGAC) at an estimated proforma value of $1.965 billion.\nIts focus is on medium- and heavy-duty last mile and return-to-base segments (class 5/6, class 6/7, and class 7/8) commercial fleets and specialty vehicles. Some vehicles are currently in production and in regular on-road operations with key fleet customers, and it claimed 6,000 unit orders in backlog.\nIts MD-platform is for classes 5-6 for pickup and delivery. Its HD X-Platform is an adaptable chassis for highway, vocational, and severe work conditions. Its market is for customers with highly predictable routes that allow for batteries designed for a more limited range. A significantly larger frame and smaller battery pack allow for reduced density.\nXos has a bundled all-in-one offering that allows fleets to access all the tools and services they need to go electric with a single point of contact at a fixed monthly expense.\nXos had $3 million in revenue in 2020 and estimates $14 million in 2021. However, it forecasts $5.2 billion in revenue in 2025. At the current stock price of $10.30, its market cap is approximately $2 billion, about the same as its original SPAC transaction.\nLion Electric (NGA)\nLion Electric is a Canadian company founded by Marc Bédard in 2008. Its focus is to be a leader in designing, developing, and manufacturing purpose-built urban electric vehicles; vehicles that are specifically designed as delivery trucks, refuse trucks, bucket trucks, moving trucks, school buses, and shuttle buses. It has over 300 all-electric vehicles on the road today.\nIn November 2020, it announced that it was going public through the SPAC NGA. The transaction had an estimated pro forma enterprise value of $1.5 billion.\nIt plans on seven new truck models and one new school bus, for a total of 15 all-electric vehicles, representing a full line-up from class 5 to class 8 electric trucks and a full line-up of electric school buses. Its vehicles are produced at its existing manufacturing plant, which has the capacity for the production of up to 2,500 vehicles per year. It intends to open a new plant in the U.S. capable of delivering over 20,000 Lion trucks and buses per year by 2022.\nIts all-electric class 6 and class 8 commercial urban trucks combine power, comfort, and modern technology. Custom-built chassis and cabin designed specifically for an all-electric heavy-duty vehicle. The LionC is an all-electric Type C school bus manufactured in North America. The body and chassis were specifically designed to deliver optimal performance. The LionM is an all-electric midi/minibus that meets paratransit and public transportation requirements. Created and designed specifically for the paratransit market, the is spacious and offers unique features that provide enhanced security and accessibility to the end-users.\nLion Electric had $29 million in revenue in 2020 and expects $204 million in 2021. It forecasts revenue to jump to $3.6 billion a few years later in 2024. Its current market cap is approximately $3.6 billion based on its current stock price of $18.33.\nLightning eMotors (GIK)\nLightning eMotors, formerly Lightning Systems, was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Loveland, Colorado. It provides fleet electrification for familiar commercial vehicle platforms by retrofitting them with its electric powertrains. Lightning eMotors produces electric fleet medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including delivery trucks, shuttle buses, passenger vans, ambulances, bucket trucks, chassis-cab models, and city transit buses. It focuses on urban commercial zero-emission vehicles with a full range of class 3 through class 7 battery-electric and fuel-cell electric vehicles.\nLighting eMotors helps commercial fleets achieve their sustainability goals by offering zero-emission battery-electric vans, trucks, and buses based on familiar, proven vehicles from manufacturers such as Ford and GM. It works with customers, to help them identify their unique commercial electric vehicle, charging, and grant support needs.\nThe Lightning products include integrated all-electric powertrains for the Ford Transit 350HD passenger and cargo vans, Ford E-450 shuttle bus and cutaway models, Ford F-59 step/food van, Ford F-550 cargo trucks and buses, Chevrolet 6500XD Low Cab Forward model, and 30-foot, 35-foot, and 40-foot transit buses.\nLightning has 120 vehicles on the road, and 1,500 vehicles already on order from customers. In addition to making vehicles and powertrains, Lightning also provides a full suite of charging solutions for customers.\nThe deal with GIK has an enterprise value of $650 million, although there is also an Earnout of 20.0% of total pro forma shares outstanding to Lightning eMotors shareholders if the stock crosses certain price thresholds.\nAt the current price, of $11.73, GIK has a market cap of approximately $1 billion, a little more than the original transaction valuation. Similar to XL Fleet, Lightning has the risk that retrofitting may only be an interim business opportunity until more EV trucks are produced.\nPublic Chinese EV Companies\nChina will be the biggest EV market opportunity, and EV start-ups may do better there because there isn't as much entrenched competition from domestic auto companies. China is already the largest EV market in the world, with almost a million EVs sold in 2019. Its EV market represents almost half of the global EV sales volume and is much larger than the U.S. market.\nThe Chinese government has ambitions to become a global leader in new energy vehicles. Soon after the coronavirus outbreak subsided within the country, Chinese authorities announced new policies to support the auto and electric vehicle industries.\nThese Chinese companies are traded through American depository shares (ADS) that contain certain risks. There are financial reporting and transparency risks with these companies, and on top of that, the newer companies are being classified as \"emerging growth\" companies that are already exempt from certain transparency requirements set out in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Like the previous EV stock, these stocks have also been very volatile.\nIn addition to legacy auto manufacturers like BYD, there are also three Chinese EV companies that are publicly traded through American depositary shares.\nBYD Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:BYDDY)\nBYD, which means build your dreams, is the automotive subsidiary of the Chinese multinational BYD Co Ltd. It was founded in January 2003, following BYD Company's acquisition of Tsinchuan Automobile Company. The company produces automobiles, buses, electric bicycles, forklifts, rechargeable batteries, and trucks. The current model range of automobiles includes electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and petrol-engined vehicles. Thirteen years ago, on the advice of his famously skeptical lieutenant, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett made a $232 million investment in BYD, a relatively unknown Chinese car company.\nBy parlaying BYD's rechargeable battery technology into a fast-growing carmaking operation, it gained a foothold in the fledgling electric vehicle market, building longer-lasting batteries and cheaper vehicles than American and Japanese manufacturers were managing to do at the time. In BYD, Buffett and Munger believed they had found a company with a shot at one day becoming the largest player in a global automobile market that was inevitably going electric.\nBYD's start to 2021 was strong with 19,871 plug-in electric cars sold in January in China, including hybrid plug-ins. That was a big increase over 2020 but not as much as 2019.\nLI Auto (LI)\nLixiang, formerly known as Chehejia (\"Car and Home\"), was founded in 2015 and went public in the U.S. on July 30th, 2020. It is a Beijing-based electric-vehicle startup with vertically integrated manufacturing. It designs, researches, manufactures, sells, and offers services featuring a few models of electric vehicles.\nThe company's SUVs are hybrids of a sort. They use electric motors (one on the front axle and one on the rear), but those motors are powered by a combination of a 40.5kWh battery packanda 1.2-liter turbocharged engine paired to a 45-liter fuel tank and a 100kW electric generator, which generates power for the battery pack in real-time. The idea is that the car can be driven for about 100 miles on battery power alone, but it has a total range of nearly 500 miles when leveraging the combustion engine generator.\nThe Company's primary product is an SUV under its brand Li ONE. It also sells peripheral products and provides related services, such as charging stalls, vehicle internet connection services, and extended lifetime warranties. Li Auto is looking to sell a variety of SUVs built on its hybrid technology that range from around $21,000 to about $70,000. The company started shipping its first model in late 2019. It's a midsize SUV is well-appointed and has lots of touchscreens and technology. A full-size premium version is planned for release in 2022.\nDeliveries of Li ONEs were 14,464 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a 67.0% quarter-over-quarter increase and setting a new quarterly record. Deliveries for the full year 2020 reached 32,624 vehicles. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $635 million.\nLI auto went public on July 30th, 2020, raising $1.1 billion at an initial price of $15.50 per share but quickly reached almost $24. It is currently valued at approximately $37 billion at a price of approximately $25.72 per share.\nXPeng (XPEV)\nXiaopeng (XPeng) Motors is a Chinese electric vehicle and technology company that designs and manufactures smart cars. It was founded in 2015 and went public on August 27, 2020, using American depository shares, raising about $1 billion. To date, it has raised about $2.6 billion.\nXPeng aims its EVs at technology-savvy middle-class Chinese consumers, with prices ranging from $22,000 to $45,000 after government subsidies. In some ways, it is a Tesla knock-off at a much lower price. XPeng started production of the G3 in November 2018, and as of July 31, 2020, delivered 18,741. It started production of the P7 and began delivery in May 2020, and as of July 31, 2020, it had delivered 1,966 EVs. The P7 has a range of more than 400 miles. It plans to launch a third Smart EV, a sedan, in 2021. The G3 was among the top-three best-selling electric SUVs in China in 2019.\nXPeng is interesting because it has a platform strategy and is moving aggressively into autonomous driving. It uses a platform strategy to expand product offerings by launching one Smart EV model each year to broaden the addressable market. It builds new models on two highly flexible Smart EV platforms, called David and Edward, respectively. The David platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,600 millimeters to 2,800 millimeters, and the Edward platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,800 millimeters to 3,100 millimeters. It also adopted a platform approach for software systems.\nXPeng claims to be developing an autonomous driving capability for its EVs. The P7 is the first production vehicle to feature the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Xavier system-on-a-chip (SoC) autonomous driving platform. The company's Smart Electric Platform Architecture (SEPA) runs on 2 chips - NVIDIA for the XPILOT and Qualcomm's Snapdragon™ 820A for intelligent services and infotainment, including cameras inside and outside, radars, HD-map, and ultrasonic sensors. Like Tesla, it claims it can create sufficiently-autonomous driving without lidar.\nTo enhance brand recognition and allow more people to experience its Smart EVs, it deployed a small number of Smart EVs in a ride-hailing service in Guangzhou on a trial basis, but it has no current plan to scale up a ride-hailing service.\nXpeng sees first-quarter 2021 deliveries rising 450% year-over-year to 12,500 vehicles. Revenues are expected to increase 533% from a year ago. The company didn't provide bottom-line estimates for the quarter, but will likely post another net loss as it ramps up manufacturing, invests in R&D, and builds out a new manufacturing plant set to open in 2022.\nXpeng reported selling 12,964 vehicles in Q4 2020, up 303% from a year ago. It delivered a total of 27,041 vehicles in 2020, up 112%. It makes the P7 sedan, a rival to the made-in-China Tesla Model 3, and the small G3 SUV.\nThe stock opened on August 27, 2020 at a price of $15 and a valuation of $11 billion, but its stock jumped more than 40% shortly after. Its current valuation is about $35 billion at a stock price of approximately $36.13 per share. It had about $300 million in revenue in 2019 with a loss of about $500 million.\nNio (NIO)\nUnlike previous companies, Nio has been a public company for some time. It originally went public in the U.S. back in September of 2018, selling IPO shares at $6.26 and raising $1 billion.\nNio's IPO was far from smooth. After going public at $6.26 per share, it traded down to nearly $1. Then in the middle of the coronavirus outbreak, Nio received a much-needed investment of $1 billion from investors, including state-backed entities.\nNio designs, jointly manufactures, and sells smart and connected premium electric vehicles, attempting to develop next-generation technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving, and artificial intelligence. Joint manufacturing means that it uses a state-owned contract manufacturer to build its cars.\nNio plans to provide customers with comprehensive, convenient, and innovative charging solutions and other user-centric services. It began deliveries of the ES8, a 7-seater high-performance premium electric SUV in China in June 2018, and its variant, the six-seater ES8, in March 2019. Nio officially launched the ES6, a 5-seater high-performance premium electric SUV, in December 2018 and began deliveries in June 2019. It officially launched the EC6, a 5-seater smart premium electric Coupe SUV, in December 2019 with deliveries in 2020.\nNio sold 17,353 EVs in Q4/2020 and 43,728 for the year. It warned a shortage in chips and batteries will force a production slowdown to 7,500 a month in Q2 from 10,000 vehicles a month in February.\nNio currently trades at more than $43 per share, including a big jump recently, for a valuation of approximately $48 billion. It had revenue of $2.3 billion in 2019 for a loss of $3.8 billion.\nSummary\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this should provide exciting new investment opportunities. However, the investment terrain is complex. There are dozens of new start-ups where the public can now invest that were previously exclusively venture capital investment opportunities. Many of these are following different roads to success. There are legacy auto manufacturers that could prosper or get destroyed in this transition. There are some exciting new EV company opportunities in China. And then there is Tesla.\nThis EV roadmap is intended to help investors explore different roads to investment by explaining the basic strategies for these EV companies. These roads can have different opportunities and risks, and the roadmap helps to frame these. Above all, valuation is an overriding risk that is highlighted throughout this article.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3858543,"gmtCreate":1616461280340,"gmtModify":1680781350155,"authorId":3574051403520128,"author":{"id":3574051403520128,"idStr":"3574051403520128","authorId":3574051403520128,"name":"Kah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8152bf26b25a543a305f21dbe90acf14","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":353311141,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Pls like and comment","text":"Pls like and comment","html":"Pls like and comment"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":353977206,"gmtCreate":1616458872505,"gmtModify":1704794304310,"author":{"id":"3570854002442844","authorId":"3570854002442844","name":"YCLim","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f8f1fe40879e998d6b05894eec399e51","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3dee1aa3a3a3c1814833a4d3f8a5669","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3570854002442844","authorIdStr":"3570854002442844"},"htmlText":"Still have trends?&nbsp;","listText":"Still have trends?&nbsp;","text":"Still have trends?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353977206","repostId":1196402560,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196402560","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616134696,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196402560?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-19 14:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"New Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196402560","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, an","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>It's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.</li>\n <li>Last October, I wrote a popular article providing a roadmap for investing in electric vehicles, but since then, so much has changed: new entrants, new strategies, fluctuating valuations, etc.</li>\n <li>So, I updated and greatly expanded the previous EV investment roadmap.</li>\n <li>This update includes a deeper look at valuations for 23 EV companies with revenue projections, when available.</li>\n <li>It also classifies these EV companies into their primary market categories and summarizes their different strategies.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb96acc615cba9c7842860658c019ab1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\">Photo by Sven Loeffler/iStock via Getty Images\nMy article&nbsp;Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap&nbsp;published five months ago, was popular, and some followers have requested an update. Many new EV companies entered the market, most of them through SPACs. Valuations fluctuated wildly, and there has been a great deal of publicity around these companies.\nThis new updated EV investment roadmap is greatly expanded. In addition to updating the strategies and progress of companies previously discussed, I expanded the number of companies covered. This article also groups EV companies into their primary markets, enabling better comparisons and evaluation of market opportunities. In addition, it includes a comparative valuation chart showing every company's market cap with a comparison to projected revenue, where possible. This takes advantage (good or bad) of looking at the long-term revenue forecasts provided in SPAC mergers that public companies can't make.\nIn addition to the EV manufacturers discussed here, there are also EV investment opportunities in charging station companies, battery manufacturers, and battery materials companies. These were covered in the original roadmap and may also be updated in a later article.\nApproximately 2 million EVs were sold in 2019, and although the number declined along with all auto sales in 2020, it is forecasted to increase in 2021 and reach 8-10 million by 2025. Some forecast that EV sales will be greater than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2030, or even earlier. The automobile market appears to be moving toward a historical transformation, and exceptional investment gains can be made by anticipating new emerging industries and investing in the eventual winners of those new industries. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)are obvious examples. Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to create a new emerging industry.\nThere are also significant risks. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to be released in the next three years, which will drive rapid growth in EV sales. However, the expected sales from these new models, as well as the increasing expectations from Tesla, most likely exceed the total projected market. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the companies covered here won't exist five years from now. It reminds me of the internet bubble of the late 1990s when scores of internet-based companies went public with little or no revenue. Almost all of these failed within three years -- however, a couple, including Amazon, went on to enormous success.\nEVs provide a major new investment opportunity with high risks. To succeed, you need to have a clear EV investment roadmap.\nSo, how can you invest in this new emerging market? The EV landscape is complex and investment opportunities are varied. While Tesla is the unquestioned leader in EVs, some consider it overvalued and unlikely to show exceptional returns to new investors. The current U.S. legacy automakers are committed to introducing many new EVs in the next few years, and they have some entrenched advantages with volume manufacturing capabilities, a dealer infrastructure, and loyal customers. There are exciting new EV start-ups in the U.S. that have come public this year, mostly through Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), and there are several interesting publicly traded Chinese EV manufacturers.\nThis new roadmap for EV investment classifies companies into three primary markets segments:\n<ul>\n <li>TheConsumer Retailsegment includes EVs sold to consumers individually, such as SUVs, pickup trucks, sedans, etc.</li>\n <li>TheCommercial Deliverysegment includes local delivery EV vans and trucks sold to fleets.</li>\n <li>TheMedium- and Long-Haul Truckingsegment includes heavier Class 4 - Class 8 trucks, as well as special industrial vehicles.</li>\n</ul>\nIn addition, it categorizesLegacy ManufacturersandChinese EV Companies. This enables investors to evaluate investment opportunities by considering unique opportunities within each market segment.\nThere is an enormous amount of investment optimism for EVs, and retail investors have been aggressively buying into EV stocks with seemingly no regard for valuation. Then there is the additional challenge of valuing companies with no revenue, especially those coming public through SPACs. So, valuation is an important investment consideration.\nSo let's start by looking at an overview of comparative EV valuations.\nEV Investment Valuation Overview\nThe following chart summarizes valuations for 23 EV companies, including several legacy companies. For SPACs, market cap estimates are computed using the pro forma number of shares at closing, otherwise using the valuation of the SPAC prior to closing drastically underestimates the valuation, which may be misleading to novice investors. Price/Sales ratios (market cap divided by revenue) are used to compare valuations. As a benchmark, current P/S ratios vary. For example, auto and truck companies have a ratio of 2.7X. Software companies have the highest ratios of over 10X.\nIn the chart, companies that currently have revenue show current P/S ratios. Where projections are available, projected P/S ratios are computed. A note of caution, however. Many of the EV companies came public through SPACs and published their projections (which public companies cannot do), and many of these are likely to prove unrealistic.\nAll of the longer-term revenue projections come from the company (C) forecasts with a SPAC. Some of these may turn out to be accurate, not many are most likely unrealistic. Some, like Lucid, Faraday, and Arrival forecast hitting more than $10 billion in revenue in a few years, when it took Tesla more than 10. Things are different now and they might achieve these, but they could also find that it will take longer to complete development, ramp up production, and create enough customer demand. Many companies may also find that there will be significant capital requirements to achieve this type of growth, and shareholders will be diluted.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc360dfa7de01516b7f68d5962cf3017\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"883\">\nTesla, the \"gold standard\" in EVs, has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, which many people believe is overvalued. Its market cap is approximately 20X 2020 revenue and 10X estimated 2022 revenue.\nTesla (TSLA)\nIn the U.S., and to a lesser extent in China, Tesla is the dominant EV provider. It has approximately 60% of the U.S. EV market and about 20% of the market in China. I own a Tesla and love it, but an investment in Tesla stock requires getting comfortable with its valuation. Tesla has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, although declining lately, which some consider still overvalued while others see upside potential.\nThe investment opportunity with Tesla is based on the expectation that it will continue to dominate the EV market, or at least maintain significant market share, despite much greater competition from the expected introduction of hundreds of new EV models in the next few years.\nThere is a great deal already published about Tesla, so I'll move on.\nLegacy Automakers\nSome people think that the legacy automakers will simply fade away. Historically, that was the case in some other industries, but it is not going to happen to most automakers. They are not standing still waiting to become obsolete. Most have aggressive strategies to replace ICE vehicles with EVs. GM plans to invest $27 billion and build and launch as many as 30 new EV models by 2025. Ford plans to invest $29 billion in EVs by 2025 and launch as many as 16 EVs in the next two years. Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY)has also committed billions to develop new EVs.\nThe competitive advantage that legacy automakers have in selling their new EVs is their dealer network. Will new EV customers prefer to continue going to their regular auto dealer to buy their new EV?\nAlmost all legacy automakers worldwide are developing and launching EVs including Volkswagen, Peugeot, Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi, Hyundai/Kia. Let's look a little more closely at GM and Ford as the leaders in the U.S.\nGeneral Motors (GM)\nGM has committed to introducing 20 new electric vehicles by 2023, including EVs across Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC, and Buick. It recently announced that it has already sold out the first-year production of its Hummer electric pickup. By mid-decade, it expects to sell a million EVs per year in its two largest markets: North America and China. As a reference point, Tesla reported deliveries of 367,500 vehicles globally in 2019.\nGM has a solid platform strategy for its EVs. It plans on building its EVs using five interchangeable drive units and three different motors from its Ultium Drive System platform. Ultium energy options range from 50 to 200 kWh, which could enable an estimated range of up to 400 miles. Most of its EVs will have 400-volt battery packs and up to 200 kW fast-charging capability while the truck platform will have 800-volt battery packs and 350 kW fast-charging capabilities.\nThe key building blocks of the Ultium battery system are large-scale, high-energy cells. Engineered in partnership with LG Energy Solutions, they use both advanced chemistry and a smart cell design that's optimized for a broad portfolio of EVs. GM engineers and scientists are actively researching and testing new elements in battery chemistry to lower costs and improve charge times. Ultium can contain either vertically- or horizontally-stacked cells to integrate into vehicle design: vertically for trucks, SUVs, and crossovers, or horizontally for cars and performance vehicles. As new chemistry is developed and becomes available, the battery management system could digitally update the modules.\nGM also has other EV opportunities with its BrightDrop commercial EV service and its Cruise subsidiary. BrightDrop will not just sell delivery EVs, it will provide an entire service platform for commercial delivery customers. Its set of electric delivery vehicles starts with the EV600 and includes the BrightDrop EP1, a pod-like electric pallet. SeeGeneral Motors' Aggressive EV/AV Strategies May Payoff Big.\nWith its highest stock price of $61.65, GM's current market cap is approximately $89 billion, increasing primarily because of its progress with EVs. This approximately 3X valuation in 2018, but still only 13% of Tesla.\nFord (F)\nFord is also investing heavily in EVs. It just introduced the Mustang Mach-E, a battery-powered crossover with sports car styling, and plans to introduce an all-electric version of its best-selling F-150 pickup later this year. Also, planned is an electric edition of the full-size Transit van, which has been popular in the commercial delivery market. Ford has confirmed plans to build a luxury Lincoln crossover on a battery-powered platform provided by Rivian. The automaker also plans to introduce two new midsize electric crossovers, one each for the Ford and Lincoln brands by 2023.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd8523e15bccc57790940d4218f7b94e\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"1080\">Mustang Mach-E. Source: Ford\nFord's market cap is approximately $51 billion, twice its previous market cap, and also increasing.\nConsumer Retail EV Companies\nThe consumer retail market has some unique characteristics for new EV companies. Sales are made individually, not in fleets. This diversifies the risk upon launch because only a sufficient number of customers need to be attracted to the new EV. A wave of popularity can provide terrific momentum.\nHowever, the lack of a dealer network can be an impediment. Selling EVs directly to consumers instead of through dealers is prohibited in most states. By law, auto manufacturers can't compete with franchised dealers. These are laws that go back many decades to protect dealers. This can be a major impediment for new companies without established independent dealer franchises. So, new AV companies. like Tesla, need to sell their vehicles online. Tesla has successfully done this, but it took a lot of work and time. Lack of a dealer network also creates impediments in service.\nIn addition, over the next 4-5 years, autonomous capabilities will be increasingly important to luxury vehicles. This may prove to be a challenge to start-up EV companies because they can't afford to develop this technology.\nLet's look closer at the alternative consumer retail EV investments.\nLucid Motors (CCIV)\nLucid was founded in 2007 under the name Atieva and originally focused on building electric vehicle batteries and powertrains for other vehicle manufacturers. The company rebranded itself as Lucid Motors in October 2016 and shifted its strategy to develop an all-electric, high-performance, luxury vehicle. Shortly after that, it encountered financial difficulties and struggled to get short-term funding. In 2018 it raised more than $1 billion in investment, primarily from Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund, and gave up a majority of the company.\nLucid Motors reached an agreement to become a publicly-traded company through a merger with the SPAC Churchill Capital IV Corp., in one of the largest deals SPAC EV deals. The combined company, in which Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund will continue to be the largest shareholder, had a transaction equity value of $11.75 billion (for $10/share). At the same time, it closed a PIPE investment priced at $15 a share, giving it an implied pro forma equity value of $24 billion. Rumors about this deal circulated before the transaction was formally announced, making it one of the most anticipated SPAC deals. The hype and speculation drove up the stock price of Churchill Capital IV Corp. from its opening price of $10 a share to almost $60. I believe that some of this may have been driven by novice SPAC investors who didn't realize that the valuation of CCIV didn't include the eventual valuation of Lucid. The share price dropped more than 30% after the details of the deal were announced. It's also likely that Lucid renegotiated the terms of the merger based on the price jump.\nThe company's first product is the Lucid Air, a well-equipped luxury electric vehicle that features 406 miles of projected range and 480 horsepower with a starting price of $77,400, or $69,900 after the U.S. Federal Tax Credit of $7,500. This new Lucid Air model is positioned as a high-performance, ultra-efficient luxury EV sedan in a line of future vehicles that are expected to include Lucid Air Touring, Grand Touring, and Dream Edition versions.\nThe company plans to begin production and deliveries of the Lucid Air in North America in the second half of 2021. Previously the company aimed to begin deliveries earlier in 2021. It intends to sell the car in Europe in 2022, followed by China in 2023. Lucid vehicles will be produced at its new factory in Casa Grande, Arizona. The company plans to expand the factory in phases in the coming years to have the capacity to produce 365,000 units per year at scale. The initial phase of the $700 million factory construction was completed late last year and will have the capacity to produce 30,000 vehicles a year.\nLucid also apparently has a commitment to build an assembly plant in Saudi Arabia, which was rumored to be a condition of the $1 billion investment from the Saudi public fund. The Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund also provided $600 million in bridge financing and invested in the SPAC deal as well. So, while this assembly plant may be expensive and may not be critical, it will most likely need to happen.\nLucid has ambitious plans to achieve $14 billion in revenue in 2025, and its current stock price at $29.17, which gives it a market cap of more than $46 billion, may already reflect those ambitions. Its market cap is roughly the same as Ford.\nFisker (FSR)\nFisker, which had its origins with Fisker Automotive, is an interesting story that ended in bankruptcy. Henrik Fisker originally co-founded Fisker Automotive in 2007. He was responsible for designing many premium cars such as the Aston Martin. Subsequently, Fisker Automotive had to deal with a Tesla lawsuit against Fisker Automotive alleging it stole Tesla's technology, a controversial $528.7 million conditional loan from the Department of Energy, a recall of its battery produced by A123, and the loss of several hundred vehicles in hurricane Sandy. Henrik Fisker resigned in March 2013 because of disagreements over business strategy and in November 2013, Fisker filed its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case.\nHowever, Henrik Fisker retained the Fisker brand and trademarks, and in 2016 he started another electric vehicle company named Fisker Inc. with the Fisker brand and trademarks. In 2019, Fisker shifted from developing a sports car with a solid-state battery to the Ocean SUV featuring a lithium-ion battery, which it later abandoned for a solid-state battery.\nFisker is positioning itself in a unique segment for those who want the most environmentally friendly EV. While this may be an early growth segment for EVs, it's difficult to estimate its eventual competitive advantage and the size of this environmentally-friendly market segment.\nThe Ocean is a crossover made of recycled metal and plastic with an expected base price of $37,499, and an expected lease of less than $400 a month. Fisker's plan is essentially a lease-only business model that lets customers keep a vehicle for years or return it at any time. It aims to source motors, batteries, and other components from technical partnerships with automakers and will outsource production from existing auto plants. Fisker is currently taking reservations at $250 for the Ocean. It also announced an agreement with Foxconn to jointly develop a vehicle pioneering a new market segment to be sold globally under the Fisker brand commencing in Q4 2023. at the end of 2022. Production will start at Magna Steyr's manufacturing facilities in Europe. At the end of February 2021, it had 12,467 cancellable reservations.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/924a617c90fc3276d7bdab8c64ebfdcf\" tg-width=\"744\" tg-height=\"389\">Fisker Ocean. Source: Fisker\nFisker went public using a SPAC (Spartan Energy). The original combination with SPAQ in October 2020 was valued at $2.9 billion with a cash investment of approximately $1 billion. The stock currently trades at approximately $21 per share, after reaching a high of $28.50, from the original price of $10, which is a market cap of $4.6 billion. Fisker projects $3.3 billion in revenue in 2023. It had almost $1 billion in cash at the end of 2020 and expected to use almost half of this in 2021: $250 million on operating expenses and $250 million in capital investments. If the Ocean is delayed into 2023, Fisker risks missing its revenue objective and will potentially need additional cash to complete development and launch.\nFaraday Future (PSAC)\nFaraday Future was originally established in May 2014 by Chinese businessman Jia Yueting. It is headquartered in Los Angeles and has offices in Silicon Valley, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu. Faraday Future also had a turbulent history. In 2016, it struggled financially, and in 2017 some key executives departed over a dispute about financial issues. They later founded Canoo.\nIn December 2018 the company announced layoffs due to a cash crunch and financial troubles. The company's founder Jia Yueting filed for personal bankruptcy in the United States' federal court in Delaware on October 14, 2019. Following Jia's personal bankruptcy, he decided to step down from his role as CEO of Faraday Future in order to assume a new position as the Chief Product and User Officer. He was replaced as CEO by Carsten Breitfeld, the former CEO at rival electric vehicle startup Byton.\nSomehow, Faraday was able to raise $2.3 billion in private funding over 5 rounds from a variety of investors. In early 2018, it received $1.5 billion in funding from an undisclosed investor from Hong Kong.\nFaraday's flagship product offering will be the FF 91, featuring 1,050 HP, 0-60 mph in less than 2.4 seconds, zero gravity seats with the largest 60-degree reclining angles, and a user experience designed to create a mobile, connected, and luxurious living space. The FF 91 is targeted to launch in 2022.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e38bfb3211c72bb73bc26f2ebe296fe\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"854\">FF 91. Source: Faraday Future\nIts strategic partners include one of China's top three OEMs and a critical Chinese city, which the company believes will help establish its presence in the Chinese vehicle market.\nFaraday Future plans several cars based on its Variable Platform Architecture. FF 91 is the first production vehicle and flagship model. Pricing will range between $120,000 and upwards of $200,000, which places it against formidable opponents. Faraday Future is already looking forward to expanding its range with a pair of smaller models named FF 81 and FF 71. The FF 81 is planned to be priced at $75,000 to 95,000 with a 2023 release. The FF 71 is planned to be priced at $45,000 to $65,000 with a planned release of 2024.\nThe Primary Manufacturing Facility for FF 91 is in Hanford, CA with contract manufacturing for future models in Gunsan, South Korea.\nFaraday Future is planning high-Level automation with a Level-3 capable system using a redundant safety architecture based on NVIDIA Xavier System-on-a-chip. It will be capable of highway auto-drive and hardware ready for advanced auto-drive. It is targeting full autonomous valet parking &amp; summon in any parking lot or structure. Eventually, it expects full auto-drive, including full 360˚ sensor coverage for advanced auto-drive &amp; auto-park features.\nIn January 2021, Faraday Future announced that the company would go public through a reverse merger with the special purpose acquisition company Property Solutions Acquisition Corp. (PSAC). The combined company will be valued at $3.4 billion. Faraday Future is expected to set up contract manufacturing operations in China through their partnership with Geely. Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn is also expected to serve as an additional strategic partner.\nFaraday Future projects $10.5 billion in revenue in 2024 and $21.5 billion in 2025. Revenue is expected to start in 2022 with the delivery of 2,400 vehicles for $504 million. Most likely these projections could prove to be optimistic. At a current stock price of approximately $12.80, it has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nLordstown Motors (RIDE)\nLordstown Motors based in Lordstown, Ohio, was originally founded in 2018 by Steve Burns, the former CEO of Workhorse Group. The company licensed technology from Workhorse in return for royalties and a 10% ownership. Lordstown is named after the famous GM Lordstown manufacturing plant, which it acquired in November 2019 in an unusual transaction. GM announced that it was closing the plant and was under a great deal of pressure for that decision. So, GM \"sold\" the plant to a company that was renamed Lordstown for an estimated $20 million that it loaned to the acquiring company. Subsequently, the sale was redefined to be part of a $75 million investment by GM, of which $50 million was an in-kind exchange for the plant.\nLordstown went public through the SPAC DiamondPeak Holdings Corp. in 2020. It currently has more than 400 employees.\nIts first product is the Lordstown Endurance, a full-sized EV pickup truck. Lordstown is positioning Endurance for the pickup fleet market segment. The expected price is $52,000+, and it claimed to have more than 100,000 pre-orders by January 2021. However, a recent research article published by a short seller claimed \"Our research has revealed that Lordstown's order book consists of fake or entirely non-binding orders, from customers that generally do not even have fleets of vehicles.\" Lordstown is disputing that article.\nIt believes the fleet pickup market segment is underserved with no current EV-focused competition. It estimates that the full-sized pick-up truck fleet market is 1.2 million vehicles per year in the U.S., but it's more fragmented than other truck fleets. Pickup \"fleets\" tend to be much smaller and local, so there may not be much of a market distinction for a small company buying several EV pickups from a traditional auto dealer. About half of the total U.S. pickup market is classified as fleet sales, meaning more than one.\nEven though Lordstown is targeting the commercial fleet market, it is a similar product to the Ford EV F-150. So I classify it in the consumer EV category. It is a class 2 vehicle. Lordstown also may enter the SUV market in the longer-term.\nThe Endurance will compete against future models from Rivian and Tesla, as well as Ford and GM in ICE pick-ups and their upcoming EV pick-ups. Ford plans on selling its EV F-150 in mid-2022. Initial production of the Endurance is expected in the second half of 2021, so it may have a short market advantage. Nevertheless, it forecasts selling 65,000 vehicles in 2023 and 107,000 in 2024. These estimates could be a large percentage of the EV pick-up market in those years.\nAt the SPAC merger, the implied valuation for Lordstown was $1.6 billion, including a $500 million PIPE and the $75 million by GM. Lordstown's financial projections appear to be aggressive. It projects to start shipping the Endurance in late 2021 with projected revenue in 2022 of $1.7 billion, increasing to $5.8 billion in 2024. Its stock price at approximately $13.60 values the company at a market cap of approximately $2.2 billion. The value of the company depends on the likelihood of achieving its projections.\nA fleet sales strategy makes sense for Lordstown since it would be too expensive to build a retail sales and service capability. However, it's not clear that this will become a distinct competitive advantage. Some small fleets may still prefer to buy their EV pickups from established local dealers with service capabilities.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nCanoo started as Evelozcity in 2017 and rebranded as Canoo in the spring of 2019. Canoo is a Los Angeles-based company that develops electric vehicles. It has over 350 employees. Canoo has designed a modular electric platform purpose-built to deliver maximum vehicle interior space, which is adaptable to support a wide range of vehicle applications for consumers and businesses. Canoo expects to launch its first consumer model in 2022, simply named the Canoo that will be available by subscription, followed shortly after by a multi-purpose delivery vehicle and a sports vehicle, each built off of the same underlying platform. Canoo went public using a SPAC (Hennessy Capital Acquisition) and now trades as GOEV.\nCanoo's all-electric skateboard-like platform is designed to support both consumer retail and commercial vehicle configurations. The EV leverages Canoo's flat skateboard architecture for a high level of usable interior space. Its commercial vehicle program, expected in 2023, addresses a projected $50B+ last-mile delivery market with an EV platform that maximizes cargo volume.\nHyundai Motor Group said it would jointly develop an electric vehicle platform with the company.\nCanoo's platform strategy is interesting. It could be used as an EV platform for custom fleets of delivery vehicles. It has no AV development, but it claims to be \"AV Ready\" which could be useful for AV companies wanting to build custom AV delivery fleets.\nIts all-electric multi-purpose delivery vehicle is expected to be priced starting at approximately $33,000. It is based on Canoo's proprietary electric platform and will be offered in two initial size variants, with others to follow. Limited availability will begin in 2022, with scaled production and launch planned for 2023. Customers can pre-order the multi-purpose delivery vehicle for a refundable deposit of $100 per vehicle\nIt plans to offer two multi-purpose delivery vehicles: the MPDV1 and the larger MPDV2. The first has a 200-foot cargo volume and a range of 130-200 miles. It offers more capacity than today's ICE delivery vehicles at an affordable price with urban mobility enabled by a space-efficient footprint. The vehicle is also designed to fit within many height-restricted areas like parking garages.\nThe MPDV2 has a cargo volume of 450 feet and a range of 90-190 miles. Its roof and step-in height enable individuals to easily walk-in the vehicle and accommodate a standing position while inside.\nThe original SPAC transaction provided approximately $600 million, with a pro forma equity value of approximately $2.4 billion. Like other SPAC mergers, its stock price has fluctuated. It currently trades at about $15.90 per share for a market cap of approximately $3.7 billion. Canoo projects $2.0 billion in revenue in 2025 from about $500 million in engineering services, $1.2 billion from its consumer vehicle subscriptions, and the remainder from its commercial program. Canoo expects revenue of more than $300 million in 2022 after the launch of its lifestyle consumer vehicle.\nSince its first products are aimed at consumers, as is most of its forecasted 2025 revenue, I categorize it primarily as a consumer EV company. However, I think the design of that Canoo vehicle may not attract enough customers. More importantly, its subscription service way of selling its EV to consumers is risky. I think it has more potential in the commercial market, however, a dual strategy (consumer and commercial) is challenging. I like its skateboard platform design and that could prove to be a competitive advantage.\nRivian\nAlthough not yet public, I include Rivian because it has plans for an IPO as soon as Sept 2021, although it could slip into 2022. There are rumors that the company is targeting a market valuation of approximately $50B. Rivian has already raised more than $8 billion to date from Amazon, Ford, T. Rowe Price, and others.\nRivian has developed and vertically integrated a connected electric platform that can be flexibly applied to a range of applications, including the company's adventure products, as well as B2B products such as the Amazon last-mile delivery vans. The company's initial products, the R1T and R1S, provide a combination of performance, off-road capability, and utility. These vehicles will be produced at Rivian's manufacturing plant in Normal, Ill., with customer deliveries expected to begin in summer 2021. The launch of the R1S three-row electric SUV will follow in August.\nAdditional lower-priced models are being planned. The expected R2 series would include at least two smaller electric vehicles to coincide with the smaller platform, then another platform for R3.\nCommercial Delivery EV Companies\nEV truck companies differ based on the type of truck they are developing. The technology and markets are very different, so I separate them into two categories. The first category includes commercial delivery vehicles.\nCompanies making EV delivery vehicles have some major advantages that could make them good investments. First, delivery vehicles typically travel less than 250 miles during a day, so they can be conveniently recharged overnight. Secondly, they are typically sold in large quantities to fleets. This means that building a retail sales infrastructure is not necessary. It only requires a small salesforce. In addition, maintenance can also be provided at the fleet's operational center, so not as many service centers are required.\nThe disadvantage in this market is that there are a relatively small number of customers that buy in large volumes, so if the EV manufacturer can't get enough large customers, they may not be able to stay in business. GM estimates the combined market opportunity for parcel and food delivery, as well as reverse logistics, in the U.S. will be more than $850 billion by 2025.\nThe commercial market is expected to be a major growth area for EVs. Other start-up automakers like Rivian as well as legacy automakers such as Ford, Daimler, and GM have announced plans to enter the segment. GM recently announced its BrightDrop ecosystem for commercial customers that includes an all-new electric delivery van, the EV600 available by the end of 2021, as well as an integrated autonomous pallet and related services.\nThis group of EV companies focuses primarily on commercial delivery. In general, these are in the light-duty trucks category, although it also includes some medium-duty trucks. This generally includes the following commercial truck classes:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 1: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 0-6,000 pounds or 0-2,722 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 2: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 6,001-10,000 pounds or 2,722-4,536 kilograms.1</li>\n <li>Class 3: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 10,001-14,000 pounds or 4,536-6,350 kilograms.</li>\n</ul>\nIt can also include somewhat larger medium-duty EV delivery trucks:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.</li>\n</ul>\nEV delivery trucks also have an advantage over ICE vehicles because they can have a greater delivery storage space. Smaller buses and transit vehicles are also included in this category.\nLast-mile package delivery is not an immediate-term autonomous vehicle opportunity because it requires a delivery person to be on the truck anyway.\nWorkhorse Group (WKHS)\nWorkhorse has been a public company for ten years. Originally AMP Electric Vehicles, it was established in 2007 as a developmental-stage vehicle electrification company, focusing on conversions. AMP Electric Vehicles went public in 2010 trading on the OTC market under the AMPD symbol. When the economic benefits of conversion became less certain, it pivoted away from passenger vehicles and began to focus on electrifying commercial vehicles. AMP acquired the Workhorse brand and the Workhorse custom chassis assembly plant in Union City. In March of 2013, AMP formally changed its name to Workhorse Group Incorporated.\nThe Company designs and builds a last-mile delivery electric vehicle. The C-Series EVs cover the larger size of commercial delivery vehicles in Classes 3-5. As part of its solutions, it also develops cloud-based, real-time telematics performance monitoring systems. It sells its vehicles to fleet customers directly and through its primary distributor, Ryder Systems. It is currently focused on bringing the C-Series electric delivery truck to market and fulfilling the existing backlog of orders.\nThe C-Series looks like a viable EV replacement for the 350,000 last-mile delivery vehicles sold in the U.S. annually. It recently announced an increased driving range from 100 miles to 160, which should open more market opportunities. It has a viable short-term go-to-market strategy selling fleets to delivery companies. It currently has test vehicles with UPS, DHL, FedEx, Amazon, and Walmart.\nWorkhorse recently lost out on the United States Postal Services Next Generation Delivery Vehicle project, however, it is in the process of challenging this decision. Additionally, its investment in Lordstown also provides an indirect investment opportunity. On November 7, 2019, the Company entered a transaction with Lordstown Motors to grant LMC a perpetual and worldwide license to certain intellectual property relating to its W-15 electric pickup truck platform and related technology in exchange for royalties, equity interest (approximately 10%) in LMC, and other considerations. This was a $320 million asset for Workhorse at the end of 2020.\nWorkhorse received a significant increase in orders in Q4/2020 but built just seven trucks in the fourth quarter due to production systems and supply chain issues. Workhorse plans to continue to take it slow, striving to build three of its composite-body battery-electric trucks a day in March with a plan to reach 10 trucks a day by the end of June. This makes its original 2021 goal of producing 1,800 trucks unlikely. It partnered with Hitachi and Hitachi Capital America (\"HCA\") to improve the Company's manufacturing, operational, and supply chain capabilities as well as to develop a national dealer network to support Workhorse's sales with vehicle financing options for both dealers and customers.\nWorkhorse has a market cap of approximately $1.9 billion. While Workhorse had ongoing revenue, unlike many other new EV companies, its revenue is still insignificant. It had a revenue of $1.4 million in 2020 and $377,000 in 2019. It has a backlog of over 8,000 vehicles but doesn't expect to be able to build many of those in 2021. It raised $270 million in capital over several financings, providing the Company with additional capital to build its backlog. It had cash of $215 million as of March 1, 2021. Because Workhorse is a traditional public company, it hasn't made long-term financial projections like SPAC-based companies.\nElectric Last Mile (FIII)\nElectric Last Mile, based in Troy Michigan, was founded by Jason Luo, former CEO of Ford China before it was acquired by China's Ningbo Joyson Electronic for $920 million in 2016, including James Taylor, former CEO of GM's Hummer brand and former CEO of electric car maker Karma Automotive. Taylor serves as the company's top executive with Luo as the company's chairman.\nThe company plans to launch a small electric delivery van (class 1-2), called the UD-1, in the third quarter of 2021, and then introduce an Urban Utility vehicle (Class 2-3) in 2022. These are expected to compete with Workhorse, Rivian, Canoo, as well as the Ford eTransit and the GMC BV1, none of which is expected to be a Class 1 vehicle.\nThe company says it has 30,000 preorders for its van, representing more than $1 billion in sales. Electric Last Miles vehicles will be based on Sokon's commercial van made in China through a joint venture with Dongfeng Automobile Co Ltd. in order to accelerate development time.\nElectric Last Mile (ELM) is expected to manufacture the vans in a former General Motors Co. Hummer plant in Mishawaka, Ind., that the company is acquiring from China's Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co. Ltd. The plant has the capacity to produce 100,000 vehicles annually with plans to build approximately 4,000 UD-1 vans by the end of 2021. The UD-1 has a starting price of $32,500 and a range of 150 miles. The battery for the vehicle is expected to be supplied by the Chinese battery company CATL.\nELM believes that it has a competitive advantage because its first vehicle, the ELM Urban Delivery, is scheduled to be available in 2021. It is based on a proven, existing platform developed and sold by Sokon Group in the Asian market, where there are 30,000 of these electric delivery vehicles driving 1.5 million miles every day. At the close of the business combination, ELM will be an independent, U.S. company producing electric vehicles in the U.S. with Sokon Group providing access to its know-how, parts supply, and field and service data.\nELM expects that the Urban Delivery vehicle will be the first electric delivery vehicle coming to market in the class 1 category (GVW of 6,000 lbs or less) in the U.S. It will also have 35% more carrying volume compared to similar ICE delivery vehicles, a critical part of the value proposition. It also anticipates that its price and greater carrying volume will allow it to take market share from the class 2 category of vehicles as well.\nIts crossover product portfolio strategy targets commercial delivery vehicles spanning from class 1 to class 3, which represents over 80% of the last mile market.\nELM anticipates $122 million in revenue in 2021, rapidly increasing to $3 billion in 2025. The price of FIII stock increased immediately following its announcement with Electric Last Mile, rising more than 40% to $14.50, but now it has dropped closer to the original deal price to $10.25 for a market cap of approximately $1.5 billion.\nGreenPower Motor Company (GP)\nGreenPower Motor Company Inc. is a Canadian battery-electric bus manufacturer with multiple models of high- and low-floor vehicles, including transit buses, school buses, and shuttles. GreenPower offers commercial vehicles for delivery, public transit, schools, vanpooling, micro-transit, shuttles, and is developing a capability of autonomous operation. It went public on August 28, 2020.\nIn 2014 GreenPower launched its first purpose-built, battery-electric bus, the EV350, 40-foot transit bus. GreenPower received its first order in 2017 for ten EV350s from the City of Porterville, California.\nGreenPower's electric buses are purpose-built and designed to be all-electric, allowing it to put the battery and propulsion system in optimized locations that provide weight and structural advantages. Its primary EV is the EV Star with more than 120 vehicles delivered. It comes in several variations:\n<ul>\n <li>EV Star - Up to 19 passengers</li>\n <li>EV Star Plus - Up to 24 passengers</li>\n <li>EV Star ADA - Passenger and curbside lift for ADA</li>\n <li>EV Star Cargo - 5,000 pounds of load</li>\n <li>EV Star Cargo Plus - 570 cubic feet of cargo space.</li>\n</ul>\nIts EV school bus seats up to 90 students and has a range of up to 150 miles.\nGreenPower had revenue of $13.5 million in 2020 It has about $21 million in cash. It's an interesting alternative since it is already shipping EVs, has revenue, and also has a lower market cap of less than $1 billion. Since it did a traditional IPO, it hasn't published longer-term financial forecasts.\nArrival (CIIC)\nArrival was founded in 2015 in London to make a variety of commercial electric vehicles. It has approximately 1,200 employees across 11 cities in 8 countries. In November 2020, Arrival and the SPAC CIIG entered into a business combination agreement with an implied valuation of $5.39 billion.\nArrival plans on releasing four commercial EVs over the next few years.\n<ul>\n <li>Q4/2021: An electric bus for 8-125 passengers and a range of 240-400km</li>\n <li>Q3/2022: An electric delivery van with a payload of 975-2,000kg and a range of 150-340km</li>\n <li>2022: A larger electric van with a payload of 4,000 kg and a range of 190-400km</li>\n <li>2023: a small vehicle platform with a range of 100-300km.</li>\n</ul>\nThis mix provides a nice diversified portfolio of EVs. Arrival claims to have received orders from UPS for 10,000 vans. It plans a unique flexible manufacturing approach using micro-factories with each projected to manufacture 10,000 vans per year. All of its vehicles use a modular skateboard electric platform.\nArrival ambitiously projects $14.1 billion in revenue in 2024. Half of that revenue is expected from delivery vans, 22% from buses, and the rest from the large van and its small vehicle platform. With CIIC's stock price at $24.80 per share, Arrival's current market cap is relatively high at approximately $15.0 billion. Justifying its market cap depends on its ability to release, sell, and produce its four commercial EVs.\nProterra (ACTC)\nProterra is a commercial electric vehicle company with over a decade of production experience. The Company has designed an end-to-end, flexible technology platform that claims to deliver higher performance and a low total cost of ownership to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end customers.\nProterra, Inc., was originally founded in Golden, Colorado, by Dale Hill in 2004. Later the company wanted to take the lead in creating zero-emission, U.S.-based transit buses. In 2010 it moved its manufacturing plant from Golden, Colorado to Greenville, South Carolina. In 2015, Proterra was awarded a $3 million grant from the California Energy Commission to fund the design, development, and construction of the company's battery-electric transit bus manufacturing line in the City of Industry, California. It moved its headquarters from Greenville, South Carolina, to Burlingame, California, in October 2015. Proterra raised more than $600 million in funding.\nIt is going public through the SPAC ArcLight (ACTC) with a pro forma valuation of $1.6 billion. Upon completion of the transaction, Proterra expects to have up to $825 million in cash to fund growth initiatives, including R&amp;D and the expansion of its next-generation battery program.\nProterra has three complementary businesses:\n<ul>\n <li>Proterra Powered: Delivering battery systems and electrification solutions to commercial vehicle manufacturers</li>\n <li>Proterra Transit:Providing an electric transit bus OEMs</li>\n <li>Proterra Energy:Offering turnkey charging and energy management solutions.</li>\n</ul>\nThe company's battery systems have been proven in more than 16 million service miles driven by its fleet of transit vehicles and validated through partnerships with commercial vehicle OEMs. Proterra has produced and delivered more than 300 megawatt-hours of battery systems, more than 550 heavy-duty electric transit buses, and installed 54 megawatts of charging systems.\nProterra expected $193 million of revenue in 2020, with an estimated $750 million in existing orders and backlog. It projects $2.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with about 1/3 coming from its Transit business, and 2/3 From Powered &amp; Energy. At ACTC's current stock price of $17.85, Proterra has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nRivian\nRivian (see earlier description in consumer retail) will also compete in the commercial delivery market. It has been working with Amazon (a major investor) to build large electric delivery vans for Prime. Developed specifically for Amazon, a small fleet of Prime vans is on the road now, testing deliveries to customers and gathering feedback. In late fall, it could grow to a large fleet as Rivian ramps up the volume.\nThe EV range of 150 miles is tailored to Amazon's use cycle to optimize the size, weight, and cost of the commercial vehicle. Rivian has three sizes of batteries, but Amazon is starting with just one of them.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nSee the previous summary under consumer retail EV.\nMedium and Long-Haul Trucking EV Companies\nCompanies developing medium- and long-haul EV trucks face a more difficult challenge with battery range. These trucks haul much more weight than commercial delivery vehicles and because they are designed for long distances, they can't stop every 200-300 miles for recharging.\nFor this reason, many of these companies are using unique hybrid technologies for their trucks. The EV trucks in this category are primarily heavy-duty but also include some medium-duty trucks and specialty vehicles. A couple of the companies focus on retrofitting trucks to be electric.\nMedium-Duty Trucks\nThe medium-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 4, 5, and 6:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 6: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 19,501-26,000 pounds or 8,846-11,793 kilograms.1</li>\n</ul>\nHeavy-Duty Trucks\nThe heavy-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 7 and 8:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 7: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 26,001 to 33,000 pounds or 11,794-14,969 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 8: This class of trucks has a GVWR of greater than 33,001 pounds or 14,969 kilograms and includes all tractor-trailers.</li>\n</ul>\nThe Tesla Semi is a battery vehicle planned for a range of 300 or 500 miles and a speed of 60 MPH with 80,000 lbs of cargo. Tesla plans to start shipping the Semi later this year when it expects to have sufficient cell volume to meet its needs with the production of its 4680 battery pack.\nNikola(NASDAQ:NKLA)\nNikola has been a very controversial company. Founded in 2015, it originally had two different strategies. Its primary strategy is to lease fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) Class-8 heavy trucks and provide the refueling infrastructure to corporate customers. Its second strategy was to develop the Badger EV truck using GM technology.\nNikola originally merged with a SPAC to go public, at an enterprise value of approximately $3.3 billion. On June 6th, 2020, its market cap jumped to more than $30 billion, then later it dropped because of problems with its originally planned deal with GM.\nNikola originally expected a deal with General Motors that included the production of the Nikola Badger EV pickup truck. The proposed arrangement was that GM would take a $2 billion equity stake in Nikola and in return would engineer and produce the Badger. In November 2020, GM and Nikola scrapped the original arrangement. Now it appears that GM will supply Nikola with only its Hydrotec hydrogen fuel-cell technology to integrate into the EV manufacturer's commercial class 7 and class 8 zero-emission semi-trucks. So, the Badger is probably dead.\nNikola now sees semi-trucks as the company's \"core business\" and fuel cells as an increasingly important segment of the semi-truck market thanks to their efficiency in weight and consumption. It expects to begin testing by the end of 2021.\nIt has received pre-orders from Anheuser-Busch and a few other companies, but it doesn't expect deliveries until 2023. Hydrogen fueling stations are key to its strategy, both providing a source of revenue and necessary fueling infrastructure for the trucks to operate, but they also cost a lot. In its March 2020 investor deck, Nikola said a single station capable of fueling 210 trucks a day would cost $16.6 million. Its initial planned network of 700 stations would cost roughly $11.6 billion.\nNikola was also accused of misrepresentation, and its executive chairman and founder stepped down.\nAt the time of the SPAC merger, it projected an optimistic forecast of more than $3 billion in revenue by 2024, with a net income of $145 million. Most of that revenue was expected to come from its Badger truck, which is no longer in the plans. Yet its market cap is still almost $6 billion.\nHyliion (HYLN)\nHyliion, founded in 2015 in Austin, went public in October 2020 through the SPAC Tortoise Acquisition Corp. (SHLL). In March 2019, automotive parts manufacturer Dana Inc. made an equity investment into Hyliion, and together they are manufacturing and marketing Class 8 EVs to Dana's customers, including Volvo, Navistar, and Peterbilt.\nHyliion's strategy is unique, and a very different strategy from Nikola. Essentially it generates electricity onboard the truck using compressed natural gas (CNG). This should be a benefit for longer-range trucking. Hyliion's Hypertruck concept involves an all-electric drivetrain utilizing Dana's electric motor, inverter, and axle technologies. The truck's batteries are fueled by onboard tanks of CNG. With some 700 CNG stations already operating nationwide, it believes that there no need to build out expensive superchargers or hydrogen infrastructure.\nKuwait-based logistics company, Agility, has already placed an order for 1,000 Hypertrucks with initial deliveries targeted in 2022. Combined with a fully electric drivetrain and a natural gas-powered onboard generator to recharge the battery, the Hypertruck ERX will provide more than 1,000 miles of range.\nHyliion will eventually compete with Nikola (FCEV) and the Tesla battery-based Semi, but it plans to have a longer range and lower operating costs. Its HyperTruck ERX is expected to be available in 2021. It also has a hybrid-electric truck.\nThe combination with SHLL had an estimated market cap of about $1.5 billion, with approximately $530 million going to the company, including a $325 million fully committed PIPE. At approximately $13.50 per share, its current market cap is approximately $2.2 billion, significantly down from its peak. Hyliion projects $2 billion in revenue in 2024, which it claims is only about 2% of the addressable market.\nXL Fleet (XL)\nXL Fleet is a 10-year old company that went public through the SPAC Pivotal. XL is different because it provides fleet electrification modifications for ICE trucks across a wide range of vehicle classes (class 2-5) and types. It has over 200 of the largest commercial and municipal fleets as customers, with more than 3,200 XL systems deployed and over 130 million miles driven by customers to date. XL's customer base includes FedEx, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Verizon, the City of Boston, Seattle Fire Department, Yale University, and Harvard University.\nXL's business model is essentially retrofitting existing trucks to be hybrids and then later expanding into fully electric truck conversions. It claims to be creating a fully integrated platform for this. It remains to be seen if the retrofitting business will continue to grow or will it diminish when more trucks are designed and manufactured with EV capabilities.\nUnlike some other EV companies that have no revenue yet because they are still developing products, XL is more of a small company doing low-volume retrofits. It had $7.2 million in revenue in 2019, $21 million in 2020, and estimates $76 million in 2021, but it forecasts $1.3 billion in revenue in 2024 in its investor presentation. It plans to do this by expanding its product line from hybrid to plug-in hybrid to fully electric across a broader range of trucks. It claims to have a $220 million sales pipeline for the next 12 months.\nShort-seller, Muddy Waters, claimed after talking to former XL Fleet employees, that it believed the company significantly exaggerated its order backlog, that the return on investment for the company's products was likely negative, and that it would not be able to compete with big car makers on electrification. The company thoroughly refuted these claims.\nThe original enterprise valuation was approximately $1.4 billion at a $10 share price for the merger. Its price jumped by about 35% but has since gone back down to $12.40 for a market cap of about $1.8 billion. Although XL Fleet has revenue and other EV companies don't, this may not be an advantage. It appears to be a small company for many years that has gone public at a high valuation with grand plans. The risks are in its ability to make a jump from $76 million in 2021 to $1.3 billion in 2024, as well as the question about retrofitting being replaced by new EV trucks by then.\nXos (NGAC)\nXos Trucks specializes in the field of manufacturing fully electric commercial vehicles. It features a software platform that is designed to accommodate an extensive variety of medium-duty bodies, wheelbase, and range requirements up to 200 miles. It was founded in 2016 and headquartered in North Hollywood, California. It received $20 million of investment in 2020 and now is going public through a merger with the SPAC ExtGen Acquisition Corporation (NGAC) at an estimated proforma value of $1.965 billion.\nIts focus is on medium- and heavy-duty last mile and return-to-base segments (class 5/6, class 6/7, and class 7/8) commercial fleets and specialty vehicles. Some vehicles are currently in production and in regular on-road operations with key fleet customers, and it claimed 6,000 unit orders in backlog.\nIts MD-platform is for classes 5-6 for pickup and delivery. Its HD X-Platform is an adaptable chassis for highway, vocational, and severe work conditions. Its market is for customers with highly predictable routes that allow for batteries designed for a more limited range. A significantly larger frame and smaller battery pack allow for reduced density.\nXos has a bundled all-in-one offering that allows fleets to access all the tools and services they need to go electric with a single point of contact at a fixed monthly expense.\nXos had $3 million in revenue in 2020 and estimates $14 million in 2021. However, it forecasts $5.2 billion in revenue in 2025. At the current stock price of $10.30, its market cap is approximately $2 billion, about the same as its original SPAC transaction.\nLion Electric (NGA)\nLion Electric is a Canadian company founded by Marc Bédard in 2008. Its focus is to be a leader in designing, developing, and manufacturing purpose-built urban electric vehicles; vehicles that are specifically designed as delivery trucks, refuse trucks, bucket trucks, moving trucks, school buses, and shuttle buses. It has over 300 all-electric vehicles on the road today.\nIn November 2020, it announced that it was going public through the SPAC NGA. The transaction had an estimated pro forma enterprise value of $1.5 billion.\nIt plans on seven new truck models and one new school bus, for a total of 15 all-electric vehicles, representing a full line-up from class 5 to class 8 electric trucks and a full line-up of electric school buses. Its vehicles are produced at its existing manufacturing plant, which has the capacity for the production of up to 2,500 vehicles per year. It intends to open a new plant in the U.S. capable of delivering over 20,000 Lion trucks and buses per year by 2022.\nIts all-electric class 6 and class 8 commercial urban trucks combine power, comfort, and modern technology. Custom-built chassis and cabin designed specifically for an all-electric heavy-duty vehicle. The LionC is an all-electric Type C school bus manufactured in North America. The body and chassis were specifically designed to deliver optimal performance. The LionM is an all-electric midi/minibus that meets paratransit and public transportation requirements. Created and designed specifically for the paratransit market, the is spacious and offers unique features that provide enhanced security and accessibility to the end-users.\nLion Electric had $29 million in revenue in 2020 and expects $204 million in 2021. It forecasts revenue to jump to $3.6 billion a few years later in 2024. Its current market cap is approximately $3.6 billion based on its current stock price of $18.33.\nLightning eMotors (GIK)\nLightning eMotors, formerly Lightning Systems, was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Loveland, Colorado. It provides fleet electrification for familiar commercial vehicle platforms by retrofitting them with its electric powertrains. Lightning eMotors produces electric fleet medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including delivery trucks, shuttle buses, passenger vans, ambulances, bucket trucks, chassis-cab models, and city transit buses. It focuses on urban commercial zero-emission vehicles with a full range of class 3 through class 7 battery-electric and fuel-cell electric vehicles.\nLighting eMotors helps commercial fleets achieve their sustainability goals by offering zero-emission battery-electric vans, trucks, and buses based on familiar, proven vehicles from manufacturers such as Ford and GM. It works with customers, to help them identify their unique commercial electric vehicle, charging, and grant support needs.\nThe Lightning products include integrated all-electric powertrains for the Ford Transit 350HD passenger and cargo vans, Ford E-450 shuttle bus and cutaway models, Ford F-59 step/food van, Ford F-550 cargo trucks and buses, Chevrolet 6500XD Low Cab Forward model, and 30-foot, 35-foot, and 40-foot transit buses.\nLightning has 120 vehicles on the road, and 1,500 vehicles already on order from customers. In addition to making vehicles and powertrains, Lightning also provides a full suite of charging solutions for customers.\nThe deal with GIK has an enterprise value of $650 million, although there is also an Earnout of 20.0% of total pro forma shares outstanding to Lightning eMotors shareholders if the stock crosses certain price thresholds.\nAt the current price, of $11.73, GIK has a market cap of approximately $1 billion, a little more than the original transaction valuation. Similar to XL Fleet, Lightning has the risk that retrofitting may only be an interim business opportunity until more EV trucks are produced.\nPublic Chinese EV Companies\nChina will be the biggest EV market opportunity, and EV start-ups may do better there because there isn't as much entrenched competition from domestic auto companies. China is already the largest EV market in the world, with almost a million EVs sold in 2019. Its EV market represents almost half of the global EV sales volume and is much larger than the U.S. market.\nThe Chinese government has ambitions to become a global leader in new energy vehicles. Soon after the coronavirus outbreak subsided within the country, Chinese authorities announced new policies to support the auto and electric vehicle industries.\nThese Chinese companies are traded through American depository shares (ADS) that contain certain risks. There are financial reporting and transparency risks with these companies, and on top of that, the newer companies are being classified as \"emerging growth\" companies that are already exempt from certain transparency requirements set out in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Like the previous EV stock, these stocks have also been very volatile.\nIn addition to legacy auto manufacturers like BYD, there are also three Chinese EV companies that are publicly traded through American depositary shares.\nBYD Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:BYDDY)\nBYD, which means build your dreams, is the automotive subsidiary of the Chinese multinational BYD Co Ltd. It was founded in January 2003, following BYD Company's acquisition of Tsinchuan Automobile Company. The company produces automobiles, buses, electric bicycles, forklifts, rechargeable batteries, and trucks. The current model range of automobiles includes electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and petrol-engined vehicles. Thirteen years ago, on the advice of his famously skeptical lieutenant, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett made a $232 million investment in BYD, a relatively unknown Chinese car company.\nBy parlaying BYD's rechargeable battery technology into a fast-growing carmaking operation, it gained a foothold in the fledgling electric vehicle market, building longer-lasting batteries and cheaper vehicles than American and Japanese manufacturers were managing to do at the time. In BYD, Buffett and Munger believed they had found a company with a shot at one day becoming the largest player in a global automobile market that was inevitably going electric.\nBYD's start to 2021 was strong with 19,871 plug-in electric cars sold in January in China, including hybrid plug-ins. That was a big increase over 2020 but not as much as 2019.\nLI Auto (LI)\nLixiang, formerly known as Chehejia (\"Car and Home\"), was founded in 2015 and went public in the U.S. on July 30th, 2020. It is a Beijing-based electric-vehicle startup with vertically integrated manufacturing. It designs, researches, manufactures, sells, and offers services featuring a few models of electric vehicles.\nThe company's SUVs are hybrids of a sort. They use electric motors (one on the front axle and one on the rear), but those motors are powered by a combination of a 40.5kWh battery packanda 1.2-liter turbocharged engine paired to a 45-liter fuel tank and a 100kW electric generator, which generates power for the battery pack in real-time. The idea is that the car can be driven for about 100 miles on battery power alone, but it has a total range of nearly 500 miles when leveraging the combustion engine generator.\nThe Company's primary product is an SUV under its brand Li ONE. It also sells peripheral products and provides related services, such as charging stalls, vehicle internet connection services, and extended lifetime warranties. Li Auto is looking to sell a variety of SUVs built on its hybrid technology that range from around $21,000 to about $70,000. The company started shipping its first model in late 2019. It's a midsize SUV is well-appointed and has lots of touchscreens and technology. A full-size premium version is planned for release in 2022.\nDeliveries of Li ONEs were 14,464 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a 67.0% quarter-over-quarter increase and setting a new quarterly record. Deliveries for the full year 2020 reached 32,624 vehicles. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $635 million.\nLI auto went public on July 30th, 2020, raising $1.1 billion at an initial price of $15.50 per share but quickly reached almost $24. It is currently valued at approximately $37 billion at a price of approximately $25.72 per share.\nXPeng (XPEV)\nXiaopeng (XPeng) Motors is a Chinese electric vehicle and technology company that designs and manufactures smart cars. It was founded in 2015 and went public on August 27, 2020, using American depository shares, raising about $1 billion. To date, it has raised about $2.6 billion.\nXPeng aims its EVs at technology-savvy middle-class Chinese consumers, with prices ranging from $22,000 to $45,000 after government subsidies. In some ways, it is a Tesla knock-off at a much lower price. XPeng started production of the G3 in November 2018, and as of July 31, 2020, delivered 18,741. It started production of the P7 and began delivery in May 2020, and as of July 31, 2020, it had delivered 1,966 EVs. The P7 has a range of more than 400 miles. It plans to launch a third Smart EV, a sedan, in 2021. The G3 was among the top-three best-selling electric SUVs in China in 2019.\nXPeng is interesting because it has a platform strategy and is moving aggressively into autonomous driving. It uses a platform strategy to expand product offerings by launching one Smart EV model each year to broaden the addressable market. It builds new models on two highly flexible Smart EV platforms, called David and Edward, respectively. The David platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,600 millimeters to 2,800 millimeters, and the Edward platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,800 millimeters to 3,100 millimeters. It also adopted a platform approach for software systems.\nXPeng claims to be developing an autonomous driving capability for its EVs. The P7 is the first production vehicle to feature the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Xavier system-on-a-chip (SoC) autonomous driving platform. The company's Smart Electric Platform Architecture (SEPA) runs on 2 chips - NVIDIA for the XPILOT and Qualcomm's Snapdragon™ 820A for intelligent services and infotainment, including cameras inside and outside, radars, HD-map, and ultrasonic sensors. Like Tesla, it claims it can create sufficiently-autonomous driving without lidar.\nTo enhance brand recognition and allow more people to experience its Smart EVs, it deployed a small number of Smart EVs in a ride-hailing service in Guangzhou on a trial basis, but it has no current plan to scale up a ride-hailing service.\nXpeng sees first-quarter 2021 deliveries rising 450% year-over-year to 12,500 vehicles. Revenues are expected to increase 533% from a year ago. The company didn't provide bottom-line estimates for the quarter, but will likely post another net loss as it ramps up manufacturing, invests in R&amp;D, and builds out a new manufacturing plant set to open in 2022.\nXpeng reported selling 12,964 vehicles in Q4 2020, up 303% from a year ago. It delivered a total of 27,041 vehicles in 2020, up 112%. It makes the P7 sedan, a rival to the made-in-China Tesla Model 3, and the small G3 SUV.\nThe stock opened on August 27, 2020 at a price of $15 and a valuation of $11 billion, but its stock jumped more than 40% shortly after. Its current valuation is about $35 billion at a stock price of approximately $36.13 per share. It had about $300 million in revenue in 2019 with a loss of about $500 million.\nNio (NIO)\nUnlike previous companies, Nio has been a public company for some time. It originally went public in the U.S. back in September of 2018, selling IPO shares at $6.26 and raising $1 billion.\nNio's IPO was far from smooth. After going public at $6.26 per share, it traded down to nearly $1. Then in the middle of the coronavirus outbreak, Nio received a much-needed investment of $1 billion from investors, including state-backed entities.\nNio designs, jointly manufactures, and sells smart and connected premium electric vehicles, attempting to develop next-generation technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving, and artificial intelligence. Joint manufacturing means that it uses a state-owned contract manufacturer to build its cars.\nNio plans to provide customers with comprehensive, convenient, and innovative charging solutions and other user-centric services. It began deliveries of the ES8, a 7-seater high-performance premium electric SUV in China in June 2018, and its variant, the six-seater ES8, in March 2019. Nio officially launched the ES6, a 5-seater high-performance premium electric SUV, in December 2018 and began deliveries in June 2019. It officially launched the EC6, a 5-seater smart premium electric Coupe SUV, in December 2019 with deliveries in 2020.\nNio sold 17,353 EVs in Q4/2020 and 43,728 for the year. It warned a shortage in chips and batteries will force a production slowdown to 7,500 a month in Q2 from 10,000 vehicles a month in February.\nNio currently trades at more than $43 per share, including a big jump recently, for a valuation of approximately $48 billion. It had revenue of $2.3 billion in 2019 for a loss of $3.8 billion.\nSummary\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this should provide exciting new investment opportunities. However, the investment terrain is complex. There are dozens of new start-ups where the public can now invest that were previously exclusively venture capital investment opportunities. Many of these are following different roads to success. There are legacy auto manufacturers that could prosper or get destroyed in this transition. There are some exciting new EV company opportunities in China. And then there is Tesla.\nThis EV roadmap is intended to help investors explore different roads to investment by explaining the basic strategies for these EV companies. These roads can have different opportunities and risks, and the roadmap helps to frame these. Above all, valuation is an overriding risk that is highlighted throughout this article.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>New Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNew Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-19 14:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.\nLast October, I wrote a popular article providing...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车","01211":"比亚迪股份","NKLA":"Nikola Corporation","LI":"理想汽车","GP":"GreenPower Motor Company Inc.","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","GOEV":"Canoo Inc.","WKHS":"Workhorse Group, Inc.","F":"福特汽车","002594":"比亚迪","TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来","FSR":"菲斯克","HYLN":"Hyliion Holdings Corp."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1196402560","content_text":"Summary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.\nLast October, I wrote a popular article providing a roadmap for investing in electric vehicles, but since then, so much has changed: new entrants, new strategies, fluctuating valuations, etc.\nSo, I updated and greatly expanded the previous EV investment roadmap.\nThis update includes a deeper look at valuations for 23 EV companies with revenue projections, when available.\nIt also classifies these EV companies into their primary market categories and summarizes their different strategies.\n\nPhoto by Sven Loeffler/iStock via Getty Images\nMy article Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap published five months ago, was popular, and some followers have requested an update. Many new EV companies entered the market, most of them through SPACs. Valuations fluctuated wildly, and there has been a great deal of publicity around these companies.\nThis new updated EV investment roadmap is greatly expanded. In addition to updating the strategies and progress of companies previously discussed, I expanded the number of companies covered. This article also groups EV companies into their primary markets, enabling better comparisons and evaluation of market opportunities. In addition, it includes a comparative valuation chart showing every company's market cap with a comparison to projected revenue, where possible. This takes advantage (good or bad) of looking at the long-term revenue forecasts provided in SPAC mergers that public companies can't make.\nIn addition to the EV manufacturers discussed here, there are also EV investment opportunities in charging station companies, battery manufacturers, and battery materials companies. These were covered in the original roadmap and may also be updated in a later article.\nApproximately 2 million EVs were sold in 2019, and although the number declined along with all auto sales in 2020, it is forecasted to increase in 2021 and reach 8-10 million by 2025. Some forecast that EV sales will be greater than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2030, or even earlier. The automobile market appears to be moving toward a historical transformation, and exceptional investment gains can be made by anticipating new emerging industries and investing in the eventual winners of those new industries. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)are obvious examples. Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to create a new emerging industry.\nThere are also significant risks. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to be released in the next three years, which will drive rapid growth in EV sales. However, the expected sales from these new models, as well as the increasing expectations from Tesla, most likely exceed the total projected market. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the companies covered here won't exist five years from now. It reminds me of the internet bubble of the late 1990s when scores of internet-based companies went public with little or no revenue. Almost all of these failed within three years -- however, a couple, including Amazon, went on to enormous success.\nEVs provide a major new investment opportunity with high risks. To succeed, you need to have a clear EV investment roadmap.\nSo, how can you invest in this new emerging market? The EV landscape is complex and investment opportunities are varied. While Tesla is the unquestioned leader in EVs, some consider it overvalued and unlikely to show exceptional returns to new investors. The current U.S. legacy automakers are committed to introducing many new EVs in the next few years, and they have some entrenched advantages with volume manufacturing capabilities, a dealer infrastructure, and loyal customers. There are exciting new EV start-ups in the U.S. that have come public this year, mostly through Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), and there are several interesting publicly traded Chinese EV manufacturers.\nThis new roadmap for EV investment classifies companies into three primary markets segments:\n\nTheConsumer Retailsegment includes EVs sold to consumers individually, such as SUVs, pickup trucks, sedans, etc.\nTheCommercial Deliverysegment includes local delivery EV vans and trucks sold to fleets.\nTheMedium- and Long-Haul Truckingsegment includes heavier Class 4 - Class 8 trucks, as well as special industrial vehicles.\n\nIn addition, it categorizesLegacy ManufacturersandChinese EV Companies. This enables investors to evaluate investment opportunities by considering unique opportunities within each market segment.\nThere is an enormous amount of investment optimism for EVs, and retail investors have been aggressively buying into EV stocks with seemingly no regard for valuation. Then there is the additional challenge of valuing companies with no revenue, especially those coming public through SPACs. So, valuation is an important investment consideration.\nSo let's start by looking at an overview of comparative EV valuations.\nEV Investment Valuation Overview\nThe following chart summarizes valuations for 23 EV companies, including several legacy companies. For SPACs, market cap estimates are computed using the pro forma number of shares at closing, otherwise using the valuation of the SPAC prior to closing drastically underestimates the valuation, which may be misleading to novice investors. Price/Sales ratios (market cap divided by revenue) are used to compare valuations. As a benchmark, current P/S ratios vary. For example, auto and truck companies have a ratio of 2.7X. Software companies have the highest ratios of over 10X.\nIn the chart, companies that currently have revenue show current P/S ratios. Where projections are available, projected P/S ratios are computed. A note of caution, however. Many of the EV companies came public through SPACs and published their projections (which public companies cannot do), and many of these are likely to prove unrealistic.\nAll of the longer-term revenue projections come from the company (C) forecasts with a SPAC. Some of these may turn out to be accurate, not many are most likely unrealistic. Some, like Lucid, Faraday, and Arrival forecast hitting more than $10 billion in revenue in a few years, when it took Tesla more than 10. Things are different now and they might achieve these, but they could also find that it will take longer to complete development, ramp up production, and create enough customer demand. Many companies may also find that there will be significant capital requirements to achieve this type of growth, and shareholders will be diluted.\n\nTesla, the \"gold standard\" in EVs, has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, which many people believe is overvalued. Its market cap is approximately 20X 2020 revenue and 10X estimated 2022 revenue.\nTesla (TSLA)\nIn the U.S., and to a lesser extent in China, Tesla is the dominant EV provider. It has approximately 60% of the U.S. EV market and about 20% of the market in China. I own a Tesla and love it, but an investment in Tesla stock requires getting comfortable with its valuation. Tesla has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, although declining lately, which some consider still overvalued while others see upside potential.\nThe investment opportunity with Tesla is based on the expectation that it will continue to dominate the EV market, or at least maintain significant market share, despite much greater competition from the expected introduction of hundreds of new EV models in the next few years.\nThere is a great deal already published about Tesla, so I'll move on.\nLegacy Automakers\nSome people think that the legacy automakers will simply fade away. Historically, that was the case in some other industries, but it is not going to happen to most automakers. They are not standing still waiting to become obsolete. Most have aggressive strategies to replace ICE vehicles with EVs. GM plans to invest $27 billion and build and launch as many as 30 new EV models by 2025. Ford plans to invest $29 billion in EVs by 2025 and launch as many as 16 EVs in the next two years. Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY)has also committed billions to develop new EVs.\nThe competitive advantage that legacy automakers have in selling their new EVs is their dealer network. Will new EV customers prefer to continue going to their regular auto dealer to buy their new EV?\nAlmost all legacy automakers worldwide are developing and launching EVs including Volkswagen, Peugeot, Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi, Hyundai/Kia. Let's look a little more closely at GM and Ford as the leaders in the U.S.\nGeneral Motors (GM)\nGM has committed to introducing 20 new electric vehicles by 2023, including EVs across Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC, and Buick. It recently announced that it has already sold out the first-year production of its Hummer electric pickup. By mid-decade, it expects to sell a million EVs per year in its two largest markets: North America and China. As a reference point, Tesla reported deliveries of 367,500 vehicles globally in 2019.\nGM has a solid platform strategy for its EVs. It plans on building its EVs using five interchangeable drive units and three different motors from its Ultium Drive System platform. Ultium energy options range from 50 to 200 kWh, which could enable an estimated range of up to 400 miles. Most of its EVs will have 400-volt battery packs and up to 200 kW fast-charging capability while the truck platform will have 800-volt battery packs and 350 kW fast-charging capabilities.\nThe key building blocks of the Ultium battery system are large-scale, high-energy cells. Engineered in partnership with LG Energy Solutions, they use both advanced chemistry and a smart cell design that's optimized for a broad portfolio of EVs. GM engineers and scientists are actively researching and testing new elements in battery chemistry to lower costs and improve charge times. Ultium can contain either vertically- or horizontally-stacked cells to integrate into vehicle design: vertically for trucks, SUVs, and crossovers, or horizontally for cars and performance vehicles. As new chemistry is developed and becomes available, the battery management system could digitally update the modules.\nGM also has other EV opportunities with its BrightDrop commercial EV service and its Cruise subsidiary. BrightDrop will not just sell delivery EVs, it will provide an entire service platform for commercial delivery customers. Its set of electric delivery vehicles starts with the EV600 and includes the BrightDrop EP1, a pod-like electric pallet. SeeGeneral Motors' Aggressive EV/AV Strategies May Payoff Big.\nWith its highest stock price of $61.65, GM's current market cap is approximately $89 billion, increasing primarily because of its progress with EVs. This approximately 3X valuation in 2018, but still only 13% of Tesla.\nFord (F)\nFord is also investing heavily in EVs. It just introduced the Mustang Mach-E, a battery-powered crossover with sports car styling, and plans to introduce an all-electric version of its best-selling F-150 pickup later this year. Also, planned is an electric edition of the full-size Transit van, which has been popular in the commercial delivery market. Ford has confirmed plans to build a luxury Lincoln crossover on a battery-powered platform provided by Rivian. The automaker also plans to introduce two new midsize electric crossovers, one each for the Ford and Lincoln brands by 2023.\nMustang Mach-E. Source: Ford\nFord's market cap is approximately $51 billion, twice its previous market cap, and also increasing.\nConsumer Retail EV Companies\nThe consumer retail market has some unique characteristics for new EV companies. Sales are made individually, not in fleets. This diversifies the risk upon launch because only a sufficient number of customers need to be attracted to the new EV. A wave of popularity can provide terrific momentum.\nHowever, the lack of a dealer network can be an impediment. Selling EVs directly to consumers instead of through dealers is prohibited in most states. By law, auto manufacturers can't compete with franchised dealers. These are laws that go back many decades to protect dealers. This can be a major impediment for new companies without established independent dealer franchises. So, new AV companies. like Tesla, need to sell their vehicles online. Tesla has successfully done this, but it took a lot of work and time. Lack of a dealer network also creates impediments in service.\nIn addition, over the next 4-5 years, autonomous capabilities will be increasingly important to luxury vehicles. This may prove to be a challenge to start-up EV companies because they can't afford to develop this technology.\nLet's look closer at the alternative consumer retail EV investments.\nLucid Motors (CCIV)\nLucid was founded in 2007 under the name Atieva and originally focused on building electric vehicle batteries and powertrains for other vehicle manufacturers. The company rebranded itself as Lucid Motors in October 2016 and shifted its strategy to develop an all-electric, high-performance, luxury vehicle. Shortly after that, it encountered financial difficulties and struggled to get short-term funding. In 2018 it raised more than $1 billion in investment, primarily from Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund, and gave up a majority of the company.\nLucid Motors reached an agreement to become a publicly-traded company through a merger with the SPAC Churchill Capital IV Corp., in one of the largest deals SPAC EV deals. The combined company, in which Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund will continue to be the largest shareholder, had a transaction equity value of $11.75 billion (for $10/share). At the same time, it closed a PIPE investment priced at $15 a share, giving it an implied pro forma equity value of $24 billion. Rumors about this deal circulated before the transaction was formally announced, making it one of the most anticipated SPAC deals. The hype and speculation drove up the stock price of Churchill Capital IV Corp. from its opening price of $10 a share to almost $60. I believe that some of this may have been driven by novice SPAC investors who didn't realize that the valuation of CCIV didn't include the eventual valuation of Lucid. The share price dropped more than 30% after the details of the deal were announced. It's also likely that Lucid renegotiated the terms of the merger based on the price jump.\nThe company's first product is the Lucid Air, a well-equipped luxury electric vehicle that features 406 miles of projected range and 480 horsepower with a starting price of $77,400, or $69,900 after the U.S. Federal Tax Credit of $7,500. This new Lucid Air model is positioned as a high-performance, ultra-efficient luxury EV sedan in a line of future vehicles that are expected to include Lucid Air Touring, Grand Touring, and Dream Edition versions.\nThe company plans to begin production and deliveries of the Lucid Air in North America in the second half of 2021. Previously the company aimed to begin deliveries earlier in 2021. It intends to sell the car in Europe in 2022, followed by China in 2023. Lucid vehicles will be produced at its new factory in Casa Grande, Arizona. The company plans to expand the factory in phases in the coming years to have the capacity to produce 365,000 units per year at scale. The initial phase of the $700 million factory construction was completed late last year and will have the capacity to produce 30,000 vehicles a year.\nLucid also apparently has a commitment to build an assembly plant in Saudi Arabia, which was rumored to be a condition of the $1 billion investment from the Saudi public fund. The Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund also provided $600 million in bridge financing and invested in the SPAC deal as well. So, while this assembly plant may be expensive and may not be critical, it will most likely need to happen.\nLucid has ambitious plans to achieve $14 billion in revenue in 2025, and its current stock price at $29.17, which gives it a market cap of more than $46 billion, may already reflect those ambitions. Its market cap is roughly the same as Ford.\nFisker (FSR)\nFisker, which had its origins with Fisker Automotive, is an interesting story that ended in bankruptcy. Henrik Fisker originally co-founded Fisker Automotive in 2007. He was responsible for designing many premium cars such as the Aston Martin. Subsequently, Fisker Automotive had to deal with a Tesla lawsuit against Fisker Automotive alleging it stole Tesla's technology, a controversial $528.7 million conditional loan from the Department of Energy, a recall of its battery produced by A123, and the loss of several hundred vehicles in hurricane Sandy. Henrik Fisker resigned in March 2013 because of disagreements over business strategy and in November 2013, Fisker filed its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case.\nHowever, Henrik Fisker retained the Fisker brand and trademarks, and in 2016 he started another electric vehicle company named Fisker Inc. with the Fisker brand and trademarks. In 2019, Fisker shifted from developing a sports car with a solid-state battery to the Ocean SUV featuring a lithium-ion battery, which it later abandoned for a solid-state battery.\nFisker is positioning itself in a unique segment for those who want the most environmentally friendly EV. While this may be an early growth segment for EVs, it's difficult to estimate its eventual competitive advantage and the size of this environmentally-friendly market segment.\nThe Ocean is a crossover made of recycled metal and plastic with an expected base price of $37,499, and an expected lease of less than $400 a month. Fisker's plan is essentially a lease-only business model that lets customers keep a vehicle for years or return it at any time. It aims to source motors, batteries, and other components from technical partnerships with automakers and will outsource production from existing auto plants. Fisker is currently taking reservations at $250 for the Ocean. It also announced an agreement with Foxconn to jointly develop a vehicle pioneering a new market segment to be sold globally under the Fisker brand commencing in Q4 2023. at the end of 2022. Production will start at Magna Steyr's manufacturing facilities in Europe. At the end of February 2021, it had 12,467 cancellable reservations.\nFisker Ocean. Source: Fisker\nFisker went public using a SPAC (Spartan Energy). The original combination with SPAQ in October 2020 was valued at $2.9 billion with a cash investment of approximately $1 billion. The stock currently trades at approximately $21 per share, after reaching a high of $28.50, from the original price of $10, which is a market cap of $4.6 billion. Fisker projects $3.3 billion in revenue in 2023. It had almost $1 billion in cash at the end of 2020 and expected to use almost half of this in 2021: $250 million on operating expenses and $250 million in capital investments. If the Ocean is delayed into 2023, Fisker risks missing its revenue objective and will potentially need additional cash to complete development and launch.\nFaraday Future (PSAC)\nFaraday Future was originally established in May 2014 by Chinese businessman Jia Yueting. It is headquartered in Los Angeles and has offices in Silicon Valley, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu. Faraday Future also had a turbulent history. In 2016, it struggled financially, and in 2017 some key executives departed over a dispute about financial issues. They later founded Canoo.\nIn December 2018 the company announced layoffs due to a cash crunch and financial troubles. The company's founder Jia Yueting filed for personal bankruptcy in the United States' federal court in Delaware on October 14, 2019. Following Jia's personal bankruptcy, he decided to step down from his role as CEO of Faraday Future in order to assume a new position as the Chief Product and User Officer. He was replaced as CEO by Carsten Breitfeld, the former CEO at rival electric vehicle startup Byton.\nSomehow, Faraday was able to raise $2.3 billion in private funding over 5 rounds from a variety of investors. In early 2018, it received $1.5 billion in funding from an undisclosed investor from Hong Kong.\nFaraday's flagship product offering will be the FF 91, featuring 1,050 HP, 0-60 mph in less than 2.4 seconds, zero gravity seats with the largest 60-degree reclining angles, and a user experience designed to create a mobile, connected, and luxurious living space. The FF 91 is targeted to launch in 2022.\nFF 91. Source: Faraday Future\nIts strategic partners include one of China's top three OEMs and a critical Chinese city, which the company believes will help establish its presence in the Chinese vehicle market.\nFaraday Future plans several cars based on its Variable Platform Architecture. FF 91 is the first production vehicle and flagship model. Pricing will range between $120,000 and upwards of $200,000, which places it against formidable opponents. Faraday Future is already looking forward to expanding its range with a pair of smaller models named FF 81 and FF 71. The FF 81 is planned to be priced at $75,000 to 95,000 with a 2023 release. The FF 71 is planned to be priced at $45,000 to $65,000 with a planned release of 2024.\nThe Primary Manufacturing Facility for FF 91 is in Hanford, CA with contract manufacturing for future models in Gunsan, South Korea.\nFaraday Future is planning high-Level automation with a Level-3 capable system using a redundant safety architecture based on NVIDIA Xavier System-on-a-chip. It will be capable of highway auto-drive and hardware ready for advanced auto-drive. It is targeting full autonomous valet parking & summon in any parking lot or structure. Eventually, it expects full auto-drive, including full 360˚ sensor coverage for advanced auto-drive & auto-park features.\nIn January 2021, Faraday Future announced that the company would go public through a reverse merger with the special purpose acquisition company Property Solutions Acquisition Corp. (PSAC). The combined company will be valued at $3.4 billion. Faraday Future is expected to set up contract manufacturing operations in China through their partnership with Geely. Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn is also expected to serve as an additional strategic partner.\nFaraday Future projects $10.5 billion in revenue in 2024 and $21.5 billion in 2025. Revenue is expected to start in 2022 with the delivery of 2,400 vehicles for $504 million. Most likely these projections could prove to be optimistic. At a current stock price of approximately $12.80, it has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nLordstown Motors (RIDE)\nLordstown Motors based in Lordstown, Ohio, was originally founded in 2018 by Steve Burns, the former CEO of Workhorse Group. The company licensed technology from Workhorse in return for royalties and a 10% ownership. Lordstown is named after the famous GM Lordstown manufacturing plant, which it acquired in November 2019 in an unusual transaction. GM announced that it was closing the plant and was under a great deal of pressure for that decision. So, GM \"sold\" the plant to a company that was renamed Lordstown for an estimated $20 million that it loaned to the acquiring company. Subsequently, the sale was redefined to be part of a $75 million investment by GM, of which $50 million was an in-kind exchange for the plant.\nLordstown went public through the SPAC DiamondPeak Holdings Corp. in 2020. It currently has more than 400 employees.\nIts first product is the Lordstown Endurance, a full-sized EV pickup truck. Lordstown is positioning Endurance for the pickup fleet market segment. The expected price is $52,000+, and it claimed to have more than 100,000 pre-orders by January 2021. However, a recent research article published by a short seller claimed \"Our research has revealed that Lordstown's order book consists of fake or entirely non-binding orders, from customers that generally do not even have fleets of vehicles.\" Lordstown is disputing that article.\nIt believes the fleet pickup market segment is underserved with no current EV-focused competition. It estimates that the full-sized pick-up truck fleet market is 1.2 million vehicles per year in the U.S., but it's more fragmented than other truck fleets. Pickup \"fleets\" tend to be much smaller and local, so there may not be much of a market distinction for a small company buying several EV pickups from a traditional auto dealer. About half of the total U.S. pickup market is classified as fleet sales, meaning more than one.\nEven though Lordstown is targeting the commercial fleet market, it is a similar product to the Ford EV F-150. So I classify it in the consumer EV category. It is a class 2 vehicle. Lordstown also may enter the SUV market in the longer-term.\nThe Endurance will compete against future models from Rivian and Tesla, as well as Ford and GM in ICE pick-ups and their upcoming EV pick-ups. Ford plans on selling its EV F-150 in mid-2022. Initial production of the Endurance is expected in the second half of 2021, so it may have a short market advantage. Nevertheless, it forecasts selling 65,000 vehicles in 2023 and 107,000 in 2024. These estimates could be a large percentage of the EV pick-up market in those years.\nAt the SPAC merger, the implied valuation for Lordstown was $1.6 billion, including a $500 million PIPE and the $75 million by GM. Lordstown's financial projections appear to be aggressive. It projects to start shipping the Endurance in late 2021 with projected revenue in 2022 of $1.7 billion, increasing to $5.8 billion in 2024. Its stock price at approximately $13.60 values the company at a market cap of approximately $2.2 billion. The value of the company depends on the likelihood of achieving its projections.\nA fleet sales strategy makes sense for Lordstown since it would be too expensive to build a retail sales and service capability. However, it's not clear that this will become a distinct competitive advantage. Some small fleets may still prefer to buy their EV pickups from established local dealers with service capabilities.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nCanoo started as Evelozcity in 2017 and rebranded as Canoo in the spring of 2019. Canoo is a Los Angeles-based company that develops electric vehicles. It has over 350 employees. Canoo has designed a modular electric platform purpose-built to deliver maximum vehicle interior space, which is adaptable to support a wide range of vehicle applications for consumers and businesses. Canoo expects to launch its first consumer model in 2022, simply named the Canoo that will be available by subscription, followed shortly after by a multi-purpose delivery vehicle and a sports vehicle, each built off of the same underlying platform. Canoo went public using a SPAC (Hennessy Capital Acquisition) and now trades as GOEV.\nCanoo's all-electric skateboard-like platform is designed to support both consumer retail and commercial vehicle configurations. The EV leverages Canoo's flat skateboard architecture for a high level of usable interior space. Its commercial vehicle program, expected in 2023, addresses a projected $50B+ last-mile delivery market with an EV platform that maximizes cargo volume.\nHyundai Motor Group said it would jointly develop an electric vehicle platform with the company.\nCanoo's platform strategy is interesting. It could be used as an EV platform for custom fleets of delivery vehicles. It has no AV development, but it claims to be \"AV Ready\" which could be useful for AV companies wanting to build custom AV delivery fleets.\nIts all-electric multi-purpose delivery vehicle is expected to be priced starting at approximately $33,000. It is based on Canoo's proprietary electric platform and will be offered in two initial size variants, with others to follow. Limited availability will begin in 2022, with scaled production and launch planned for 2023. Customers can pre-order the multi-purpose delivery vehicle for a refundable deposit of $100 per vehicle\nIt plans to offer two multi-purpose delivery vehicles: the MPDV1 and the larger MPDV2. The first has a 200-foot cargo volume and a range of 130-200 miles. It offers more capacity than today's ICE delivery vehicles at an affordable price with urban mobility enabled by a space-efficient footprint. The vehicle is also designed to fit within many height-restricted areas like parking garages.\nThe MPDV2 has a cargo volume of 450 feet and a range of 90-190 miles. Its roof and step-in height enable individuals to easily walk-in the vehicle and accommodate a standing position while inside.\nThe original SPAC transaction provided approximately $600 million, with a pro forma equity value of approximately $2.4 billion. Like other SPAC mergers, its stock price has fluctuated. It currently trades at about $15.90 per share for a market cap of approximately $3.7 billion. Canoo projects $2.0 billion in revenue in 2025 from about $500 million in engineering services, $1.2 billion from its consumer vehicle subscriptions, and the remainder from its commercial program. Canoo expects revenue of more than $300 million in 2022 after the launch of its lifestyle consumer vehicle.\nSince its first products are aimed at consumers, as is most of its forecasted 2025 revenue, I categorize it primarily as a consumer EV company. However, I think the design of that Canoo vehicle may not attract enough customers. More importantly, its subscription service way of selling its EV to consumers is risky. I think it has more potential in the commercial market, however, a dual strategy (consumer and commercial) is challenging. I like its skateboard platform design and that could prove to be a competitive advantage.\nRivian\nAlthough not yet public, I include Rivian because it has plans for an IPO as soon as Sept 2021, although it could slip into 2022. There are rumors that the company is targeting a market valuation of approximately $50B. Rivian has already raised more than $8 billion to date from Amazon, Ford, T. Rowe Price, and others.\nRivian has developed and vertically integrated a connected electric platform that can be flexibly applied to a range of applications, including the company's adventure products, as well as B2B products such as the Amazon last-mile delivery vans. The company's initial products, the R1T and R1S, provide a combination of performance, off-road capability, and utility. These vehicles will be produced at Rivian's manufacturing plant in Normal, Ill., with customer deliveries expected to begin in summer 2021. The launch of the R1S three-row electric SUV will follow in August.\nAdditional lower-priced models are being planned. The expected R2 series would include at least two smaller electric vehicles to coincide with the smaller platform, then another platform for R3.\nCommercial Delivery EV Companies\nEV truck companies differ based on the type of truck they are developing. The technology and markets are very different, so I separate them into two categories. The first category includes commercial delivery vehicles.\nCompanies making EV delivery vehicles have some major advantages that could make them good investments. First, delivery vehicles typically travel less than 250 miles during a day, so they can be conveniently recharged overnight. Secondly, they are typically sold in large quantities to fleets. This means that building a retail sales infrastructure is not necessary. It only requires a small salesforce. In addition, maintenance can also be provided at the fleet's operational center, so not as many service centers are required.\nThe disadvantage in this market is that there are a relatively small number of customers that buy in large volumes, so if the EV manufacturer can't get enough large customers, they may not be able to stay in business. GM estimates the combined market opportunity for parcel and food delivery, as well as reverse logistics, in the U.S. will be more than $850 billion by 2025.\nThe commercial market is expected to be a major growth area for EVs. Other start-up automakers like Rivian as well as legacy automakers such as Ford, Daimler, and GM have announced plans to enter the segment. GM recently announced its BrightDrop ecosystem for commercial customers that includes an all-new electric delivery van, the EV600 available by the end of 2021, as well as an integrated autonomous pallet and related services.\nThis group of EV companies focuses primarily on commercial delivery. In general, these are in the light-duty trucks category, although it also includes some medium-duty trucks. This generally includes the following commercial truck classes:\n\nClass 1: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 0-6,000 pounds or 0-2,722 kilograms.\nClass 2: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 6,001-10,000 pounds or 2,722-4,536 kilograms.1\nClass 3: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 10,001-14,000 pounds or 4,536-6,350 kilograms.\n\nIt can also include somewhat larger medium-duty EV delivery trucks:\n\nClass 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.\nClass 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.\n\nEV delivery trucks also have an advantage over ICE vehicles because they can have a greater delivery storage space. Smaller buses and transit vehicles are also included in this category.\nLast-mile package delivery is not an immediate-term autonomous vehicle opportunity because it requires a delivery person to be on the truck anyway.\nWorkhorse Group (WKHS)\nWorkhorse has been a public company for ten years. Originally AMP Electric Vehicles, it was established in 2007 as a developmental-stage vehicle electrification company, focusing on conversions. AMP Electric Vehicles went public in 2010 trading on the OTC market under the AMPD symbol. When the economic benefits of conversion became less certain, it pivoted away from passenger vehicles and began to focus on electrifying commercial vehicles. AMP acquired the Workhorse brand and the Workhorse custom chassis assembly plant in Union City. In March of 2013, AMP formally changed its name to Workhorse Group Incorporated.\nThe Company designs and builds a last-mile delivery electric vehicle. The C-Series EVs cover the larger size of commercial delivery vehicles in Classes 3-5. As part of its solutions, it also develops cloud-based, real-time telematics performance monitoring systems. It sells its vehicles to fleet customers directly and through its primary distributor, Ryder Systems. It is currently focused on bringing the C-Series electric delivery truck to market and fulfilling the existing backlog of orders.\nThe C-Series looks like a viable EV replacement for the 350,000 last-mile delivery vehicles sold in the U.S. annually. It recently announced an increased driving range from 100 miles to 160, which should open more market opportunities. It has a viable short-term go-to-market strategy selling fleets to delivery companies. It currently has test vehicles with UPS, DHL, FedEx, Amazon, and Walmart.\nWorkhorse recently lost out on the United States Postal Services Next Generation Delivery Vehicle project, however, it is in the process of challenging this decision. Additionally, its investment in Lordstown also provides an indirect investment opportunity. On November 7, 2019, the Company entered a transaction with Lordstown Motors to grant LMC a perpetual and worldwide license to certain intellectual property relating to its W-15 electric pickup truck platform and related technology in exchange for royalties, equity interest (approximately 10%) in LMC, and other considerations. This was a $320 million asset for Workhorse at the end of 2020.\nWorkhorse received a significant increase in orders in Q4/2020 but built just seven trucks in the fourth quarter due to production systems and supply chain issues. Workhorse plans to continue to take it slow, striving to build three of its composite-body battery-electric trucks a day in March with a plan to reach 10 trucks a day by the end of June. This makes its original 2021 goal of producing 1,800 trucks unlikely. It partnered with Hitachi and Hitachi Capital America (\"HCA\") to improve the Company's manufacturing, operational, and supply chain capabilities as well as to develop a national dealer network to support Workhorse's sales with vehicle financing options for both dealers and customers.\nWorkhorse has a market cap of approximately $1.9 billion. While Workhorse had ongoing revenue, unlike many other new EV companies, its revenue is still insignificant. It had a revenue of $1.4 million in 2020 and $377,000 in 2019. It has a backlog of over 8,000 vehicles but doesn't expect to be able to build many of those in 2021. It raised $270 million in capital over several financings, providing the Company with additional capital to build its backlog. It had cash of $215 million as of March 1, 2021. Because Workhorse is a traditional public company, it hasn't made long-term financial projections like SPAC-based companies.\nElectric Last Mile (FIII)\nElectric Last Mile, based in Troy Michigan, was founded by Jason Luo, former CEO of Ford China before it was acquired by China's Ningbo Joyson Electronic for $920 million in 2016, including James Taylor, former CEO of GM's Hummer brand and former CEO of electric car maker Karma Automotive. Taylor serves as the company's top executive with Luo as the company's chairman.\nThe company plans to launch a small electric delivery van (class 1-2), called the UD-1, in the third quarter of 2021, and then introduce an Urban Utility vehicle (Class 2-3) in 2022. These are expected to compete with Workhorse, Rivian, Canoo, as well as the Ford eTransit and the GMC BV1, none of which is expected to be a Class 1 vehicle.\nThe company says it has 30,000 preorders for its van, representing more than $1 billion in sales. Electric Last Miles vehicles will be based on Sokon's commercial van made in China through a joint venture with Dongfeng Automobile Co Ltd. in order to accelerate development time.\nElectric Last Mile (ELM) is expected to manufacture the vans in a former General Motors Co. Hummer plant in Mishawaka, Ind., that the company is acquiring from China's Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co. Ltd. The plant has the capacity to produce 100,000 vehicles annually with plans to build approximately 4,000 UD-1 vans by the end of 2021. The UD-1 has a starting price of $32,500 and a range of 150 miles. The battery for the vehicle is expected to be supplied by the Chinese battery company CATL.\nELM believes that it has a competitive advantage because its first vehicle, the ELM Urban Delivery, is scheduled to be available in 2021. It is based on a proven, existing platform developed and sold by Sokon Group in the Asian market, where there are 30,000 of these electric delivery vehicles driving 1.5 million miles every day. At the close of the business combination, ELM will be an independent, U.S. company producing electric vehicles in the U.S. with Sokon Group providing access to its know-how, parts supply, and field and service data.\nELM expects that the Urban Delivery vehicle will be the first electric delivery vehicle coming to market in the class 1 category (GVW of 6,000 lbs or less) in the U.S. It will also have 35% more carrying volume compared to similar ICE delivery vehicles, a critical part of the value proposition. It also anticipates that its price and greater carrying volume will allow it to take market share from the class 2 category of vehicles as well.\nIts crossover product portfolio strategy targets commercial delivery vehicles spanning from class 1 to class 3, which represents over 80% of the last mile market.\nELM anticipates $122 million in revenue in 2021, rapidly increasing to $3 billion in 2025. The price of FIII stock increased immediately following its announcement with Electric Last Mile, rising more than 40% to $14.50, but now it has dropped closer to the original deal price to $10.25 for a market cap of approximately $1.5 billion.\nGreenPower Motor Company (GP)\nGreenPower Motor Company Inc. is a Canadian battery-electric bus manufacturer with multiple models of high- and low-floor vehicles, including transit buses, school buses, and shuttles. GreenPower offers commercial vehicles for delivery, public transit, schools, vanpooling, micro-transit, shuttles, and is developing a capability of autonomous operation. It went public on August 28, 2020.\nIn 2014 GreenPower launched its first purpose-built, battery-electric bus, the EV350, 40-foot transit bus. GreenPower received its first order in 2017 for ten EV350s from the City of Porterville, California.\nGreenPower's electric buses are purpose-built and designed to be all-electric, allowing it to put the battery and propulsion system in optimized locations that provide weight and structural advantages. Its primary EV is the EV Star with more than 120 vehicles delivered. It comes in several variations:\n\nEV Star - Up to 19 passengers\nEV Star Plus - Up to 24 passengers\nEV Star ADA - Passenger and curbside lift for ADA\nEV Star Cargo - 5,000 pounds of load\nEV Star Cargo Plus - 570 cubic feet of cargo space.\n\nIts EV school bus seats up to 90 students and has a range of up to 150 miles.\nGreenPower had revenue of $13.5 million in 2020 It has about $21 million in cash. It's an interesting alternative since it is already shipping EVs, has revenue, and also has a lower market cap of less than $1 billion. Since it did a traditional IPO, it hasn't published longer-term financial forecasts.\nArrival (CIIC)\nArrival was founded in 2015 in London to make a variety of commercial electric vehicles. It has approximately 1,200 employees across 11 cities in 8 countries. In November 2020, Arrival and the SPAC CIIG entered into a business combination agreement with an implied valuation of $5.39 billion.\nArrival plans on releasing four commercial EVs over the next few years.\n\nQ4/2021: An electric bus for 8-125 passengers and a range of 240-400km\nQ3/2022: An electric delivery van with a payload of 975-2,000kg and a range of 150-340km\n2022: A larger electric van with a payload of 4,000 kg and a range of 190-400km\n2023: a small vehicle platform with a range of 100-300km.\n\nThis mix provides a nice diversified portfolio of EVs. Arrival claims to have received orders from UPS for 10,000 vans. It plans a unique flexible manufacturing approach using micro-factories with each projected to manufacture 10,000 vans per year. All of its vehicles use a modular skateboard electric platform.\nArrival ambitiously projects $14.1 billion in revenue in 2024. Half of that revenue is expected from delivery vans, 22% from buses, and the rest from the large van and its small vehicle platform. With CIIC's stock price at $24.80 per share, Arrival's current market cap is relatively high at approximately $15.0 billion. Justifying its market cap depends on its ability to release, sell, and produce its four commercial EVs.\nProterra (ACTC)\nProterra is a commercial electric vehicle company with over a decade of production experience. The Company has designed an end-to-end, flexible technology platform that claims to deliver higher performance and a low total cost of ownership to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end customers.\nProterra, Inc., was originally founded in Golden, Colorado, by Dale Hill in 2004. Later the company wanted to take the lead in creating zero-emission, U.S.-based transit buses. In 2010 it moved its manufacturing plant from Golden, Colorado to Greenville, South Carolina. In 2015, Proterra was awarded a $3 million grant from the California Energy Commission to fund the design, development, and construction of the company's battery-electric transit bus manufacturing line in the City of Industry, California. It moved its headquarters from Greenville, South Carolina, to Burlingame, California, in October 2015. Proterra raised more than $600 million in funding.\nIt is going public through the SPAC ArcLight (ACTC) with a pro forma valuation of $1.6 billion. Upon completion of the transaction, Proterra expects to have up to $825 million in cash to fund growth initiatives, including R&D and the expansion of its next-generation battery program.\nProterra has three complementary businesses:\n\nProterra Powered: Delivering battery systems and electrification solutions to commercial vehicle manufacturers\nProterra Transit:Providing an electric transit bus OEMs\nProterra Energy:Offering turnkey charging and energy management solutions.\n\nThe company's battery systems have been proven in more than 16 million service miles driven by its fleet of transit vehicles and validated through partnerships with commercial vehicle OEMs. Proterra has produced and delivered more than 300 megawatt-hours of battery systems, more than 550 heavy-duty electric transit buses, and installed 54 megawatts of charging systems.\nProterra expected $193 million of revenue in 2020, with an estimated $750 million in existing orders and backlog. It projects $2.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with about 1/3 coming from its Transit business, and 2/3 From Powered & Energy. At ACTC's current stock price of $17.85, Proterra has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nRivian\nRivian (see earlier description in consumer retail) will also compete in the commercial delivery market. It has been working with Amazon (a major investor) to build large electric delivery vans for Prime. Developed specifically for Amazon, a small fleet of Prime vans is on the road now, testing deliveries to customers and gathering feedback. In late fall, it could grow to a large fleet as Rivian ramps up the volume.\nThe EV range of 150 miles is tailored to Amazon's use cycle to optimize the size, weight, and cost of the commercial vehicle. Rivian has three sizes of batteries, but Amazon is starting with just one of them.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nSee the previous summary under consumer retail EV.\nMedium and Long-Haul Trucking EV Companies\nCompanies developing medium- and long-haul EV trucks face a more difficult challenge with battery range. These trucks haul much more weight than commercial delivery vehicles and because they are designed for long distances, they can't stop every 200-300 miles for recharging.\nFor this reason, many of these companies are using unique hybrid technologies for their trucks. The EV trucks in this category are primarily heavy-duty but also include some medium-duty trucks and specialty vehicles. A couple of the companies focus on retrofitting trucks to be electric.\nMedium-Duty Trucks\nThe medium-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 4, 5, and 6:\n\nClass 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.\nClass 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.\nClass 6: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 19,501-26,000 pounds or 8,846-11,793 kilograms.1\n\nHeavy-Duty Trucks\nThe heavy-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 7 and 8:\n\nClass 7: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 26,001 to 33,000 pounds or 11,794-14,969 kilograms.\nClass 8: This class of trucks has a GVWR of greater than 33,001 pounds or 14,969 kilograms and includes all tractor-trailers.\n\nThe Tesla Semi is a battery vehicle planned for a range of 300 or 500 miles and a speed of 60 MPH with 80,000 lbs of cargo. Tesla plans to start shipping the Semi later this year when it expects to have sufficient cell volume to meet its needs with the production of its 4680 battery pack.\nNikola(NASDAQ:NKLA)\nNikola has been a very controversial company. Founded in 2015, it originally had two different strategies. Its primary strategy is to lease fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) Class-8 heavy trucks and provide the refueling infrastructure to corporate customers. Its second strategy was to develop the Badger EV truck using GM technology.\nNikola originally merged with a SPAC to go public, at an enterprise value of approximately $3.3 billion. On June 6th, 2020, its market cap jumped to more than $30 billion, then later it dropped because of problems with its originally planned deal with GM.\nNikola originally expected a deal with General Motors that included the production of the Nikola Badger EV pickup truck. The proposed arrangement was that GM would take a $2 billion equity stake in Nikola and in return would engineer and produce the Badger. In November 2020, GM and Nikola scrapped the original arrangement. Now it appears that GM will supply Nikola with only its Hydrotec hydrogen fuel-cell technology to integrate into the EV manufacturer's commercial class 7 and class 8 zero-emission semi-trucks. So, the Badger is probably dead.\nNikola now sees semi-trucks as the company's \"core business\" and fuel cells as an increasingly important segment of the semi-truck market thanks to their efficiency in weight and consumption. It expects to begin testing by the end of 2021.\nIt has received pre-orders from Anheuser-Busch and a few other companies, but it doesn't expect deliveries until 2023. Hydrogen fueling stations are key to its strategy, both providing a source of revenue and necessary fueling infrastructure for the trucks to operate, but they also cost a lot. In its March 2020 investor deck, Nikola said a single station capable of fueling 210 trucks a day would cost $16.6 million. Its initial planned network of 700 stations would cost roughly $11.6 billion.\nNikola was also accused of misrepresentation, and its executive chairman and founder stepped down.\nAt the time of the SPAC merger, it projected an optimistic forecast of more than $3 billion in revenue by 2024, with a net income of $145 million. Most of that revenue was expected to come from its Badger truck, which is no longer in the plans. Yet its market cap is still almost $6 billion.\nHyliion (HYLN)\nHyliion, founded in 2015 in Austin, went public in October 2020 through the SPAC Tortoise Acquisition Corp. (SHLL). In March 2019, automotive parts manufacturer Dana Inc. made an equity investment into Hyliion, and together they are manufacturing and marketing Class 8 EVs to Dana's customers, including Volvo, Navistar, and Peterbilt.\nHyliion's strategy is unique, and a very different strategy from Nikola. Essentially it generates electricity onboard the truck using compressed natural gas (CNG). This should be a benefit for longer-range trucking. Hyliion's Hypertruck concept involves an all-electric drivetrain utilizing Dana's electric motor, inverter, and axle technologies. The truck's batteries are fueled by onboard tanks of CNG. With some 700 CNG stations already operating nationwide, it believes that there no need to build out expensive superchargers or hydrogen infrastructure.\nKuwait-based logistics company, Agility, has already placed an order for 1,000 Hypertrucks with initial deliveries targeted in 2022. Combined with a fully electric drivetrain and a natural gas-powered onboard generator to recharge the battery, the Hypertruck ERX will provide more than 1,000 miles of range.\nHyliion will eventually compete with Nikola (FCEV) and the Tesla battery-based Semi, but it plans to have a longer range and lower operating costs. Its HyperTruck ERX is expected to be available in 2021. It also has a hybrid-electric truck.\nThe combination with SHLL had an estimated market cap of about $1.5 billion, with approximately $530 million going to the company, including a $325 million fully committed PIPE. At approximately $13.50 per share, its current market cap is approximately $2.2 billion, significantly down from its peak. Hyliion projects $2 billion in revenue in 2024, which it claims is only about 2% of the addressable market.\nXL Fleet (XL)\nXL Fleet is a 10-year old company that went public through the SPAC Pivotal. XL is different because it provides fleet electrification modifications for ICE trucks across a wide range of vehicle classes (class 2-5) and types. It has over 200 of the largest commercial and municipal fleets as customers, with more than 3,200 XL systems deployed and over 130 million miles driven by customers to date. XL's customer base includes FedEx, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Verizon, the City of Boston, Seattle Fire Department, Yale University, and Harvard University.\nXL's business model is essentially retrofitting existing trucks to be hybrids and then later expanding into fully electric truck conversions. It claims to be creating a fully integrated platform for this. It remains to be seen if the retrofitting business will continue to grow or will it diminish when more trucks are designed and manufactured with EV capabilities.\nUnlike some other EV companies that have no revenue yet because they are still developing products, XL is more of a small company doing low-volume retrofits. It had $7.2 million in revenue in 2019, $21 million in 2020, and estimates $76 million in 2021, but it forecasts $1.3 billion in revenue in 2024 in its investor presentation. It plans to do this by expanding its product line from hybrid to plug-in hybrid to fully electric across a broader range of trucks. It claims to have a $220 million sales pipeline for the next 12 months.\nShort-seller, Muddy Waters, claimed after talking to former XL Fleet employees, that it believed the company significantly exaggerated its order backlog, that the return on investment for the company's products was likely negative, and that it would not be able to compete with big car makers on electrification. The company thoroughly refuted these claims.\nThe original enterprise valuation was approximately $1.4 billion at a $10 share price for the merger. Its price jumped by about 35% but has since gone back down to $12.40 for a market cap of about $1.8 billion. Although XL Fleet has revenue and other EV companies don't, this may not be an advantage. It appears to be a small company for many years that has gone public at a high valuation with grand plans. The risks are in its ability to make a jump from $76 million in 2021 to $1.3 billion in 2024, as well as the question about retrofitting being replaced by new EV trucks by then.\nXos (NGAC)\nXos Trucks specializes in the field of manufacturing fully electric commercial vehicles. It features a software platform that is designed to accommodate an extensive variety of medium-duty bodies, wheelbase, and range requirements up to 200 miles. It was founded in 2016 and headquartered in North Hollywood, California. It received $20 million of investment in 2020 and now is going public through a merger with the SPAC ExtGen Acquisition Corporation (NGAC) at an estimated proforma value of $1.965 billion.\nIts focus is on medium- and heavy-duty last mile and return-to-base segments (class 5/6, class 6/7, and class 7/8) commercial fleets and specialty vehicles. Some vehicles are currently in production and in regular on-road operations with key fleet customers, and it claimed 6,000 unit orders in backlog.\nIts MD-platform is for classes 5-6 for pickup and delivery. Its HD X-Platform is an adaptable chassis for highway, vocational, and severe work conditions. Its market is for customers with highly predictable routes that allow for batteries designed for a more limited range. A significantly larger frame and smaller battery pack allow for reduced density.\nXos has a bundled all-in-one offering that allows fleets to access all the tools and services they need to go electric with a single point of contact at a fixed monthly expense.\nXos had $3 million in revenue in 2020 and estimates $14 million in 2021. However, it forecasts $5.2 billion in revenue in 2025. At the current stock price of $10.30, its market cap is approximately $2 billion, about the same as its original SPAC transaction.\nLion Electric (NGA)\nLion Electric is a Canadian company founded by Marc Bédard in 2008. Its focus is to be a leader in designing, developing, and manufacturing purpose-built urban electric vehicles; vehicles that are specifically designed as delivery trucks, refuse trucks, bucket trucks, moving trucks, school buses, and shuttle buses. It has over 300 all-electric vehicles on the road today.\nIn November 2020, it announced that it was going public through the SPAC NGA. The transaction had an estimated pro forma enterprise value of $1.5 billion.\nIt plans on seven new truck models and one new school bus, for a total of 15 all-electric vehicles, representing a full line-up from class 5 to class 8 electric trucks and a full line-up of electric school buses. Its vehicles are produced at its existing manufacturing plant, which has the capacity for the production of up to 2,500 vehicles per year. It intends to open a new plant in the U.S. capable of delivering over 20,000 Lion trucks and buses per year by 2022.\nIts all-electric class 6 and class 8 commercial urban trucks combine power, comfort, and modern technology. Custom-built chassis and cabin designed specifically for an all-electric heavy-duty vehicle. The LionC is an all-electric Type C school bus manufactured in North America. The body and chassis were specifically designed to deliver optimal performance. The LionM is an all-electric midi/minibus that meets paratransit and public transportation requirements. Created and designed specifically for the paratransit market, the is spacious and offers unique features that provide enhanced security and accessibility to the end-users.\nLion Electric had $29 million in revenue in 2020 and expects $204 million in 2021. It forecasts revenue to jump to $3.6 billion a few years later in 2024. Its current market cap is approximately $3.6 billion based on its current stock price of $18.33.\nLightning eMotors (GIK)\nLightning eMotors, formerly Lightning Systems, was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Loveland, Colorado. It provides fleet electrification for familiar commercial vehicle platforms by retrofitting them with its electric powertrains. Lightning eMotors produces electric fleet medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including delivery trucks, shuttle buses, passenger vans, ambulances, bucket trucks, chassis-cab models, and city transit buses. It focuses on urban commercial zero-emission vehicles with a full range of class 3 through class 7 battery-electric and fuel-cell electric vehicles.\nLighting eMotors helps commercial fleets achieve their sustainability goals by offering zero-emission battery-electric vans, trucks, and buses based on familiar, proven vehicles from manufacturers such as Ford and GM. It works with customers, to help them identify their unique commercial electric vehicle, charging, and grant support needs.\nThe Lightning products include integrated all-electric powertrains for the Ford Transit 350HD passenger and cargo vans, Ford E-450 shuttle bus and cutaway models, Ford F-59 step/food van, Ford F-550 cargo trucks and buses, Chevrolet 6500XD Low Cab Forward model, and 30-foot, 35-foot, and 40-foot transit buses.\nLightning has 120 vehicles on the road, and 1,500 vehicles already on order from customers. In addition to making vehicles and powertrains, Lightning also provides a full suite of charging solutions for customers.\nThe deal with GIK has an enterprise value of $650 million, although there is also an Earnout of 20.0% of total pro forma shares outstanding to Lightning eMotors shareholders if the stock crosses certain price thresholds.\nAt the current price, of $11.73, GIK has a market cap of approximately $1 billion, a little more than the original transaction valuation. Similar to XL Fleet, Lightning has the risk that retrofitting may only be an interim business opportunity until more EV trucks are produced.\nPublic Chinese EV Companies\nChina will be the biggest EV market opportunity, and EV start-ups may do better there because there isn't as much entrenched competition from domestic auto companies. China is already the largest EV market in the world, with almost a million EVs sold in 2019. Its EV market represents almost half of the global EV sales volume and is much larger than the U.S. market.\nThe Chinese government has ambitions to become a global leader in new energy vehicles. Soon after the coronavirus outbreak subsided within the country, Chinese authorities announced new policies to support the auto and electric vehicle industries.\nThese Chinese companies are traded through American depository shares (ADS) that contain certain risks. There are financial reporting and transparency risks with these companies, and on top of that, the newer companies are being classified as \"emerging growth\" companies that are already exempt from certain transparency requirements set out in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Like the previous EV stock, these stocks have also been very volatile.\nIn addition to legacy auto manufacturers like BYD, there are also three Chinese EV companies that are publicly traded through American depositary shares.\nBYD Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:BYDDY)\nBYD, which means build your dreams, is the automotive subsidiary of the Chinese multinational BYD Co Ltd. It was founded in January 2003, following BYD Company's acquisition of Tsinchuan Automobile Company. The company produces automobiles, buses, electric bicycles, forklifts, rechargeable batteries, and trucks. The current model range of automobiles includes electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and petrol-engined vehicles. Thirteen years ago, on the advice of his famously skeptical lieutenant, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett made a $232 million investment in BYD, a relatively unknown Chinese car company.\nBy parlaying BYD's rechargeable battery technology into a fast-growing carmaking operation, it gained a foothold in the fledgling electric vehicle market, building longer-lasting batteries and cheaper vehicles than American and Japanese manufacturers were managing to do at the time. In BYD, Buffett and Munger believed they had found a company with a shot at one day becoming the largest player in a global automobile market that was inevitably going electric.\nBYD's start to 2021 was strong with 19,871 plug-in electric cars sold in January in China, including hybrid plug-ins. That was a big increase over 2020 but not as much as 2019.\nLI Auto (LI)\nLixiang, formerly known as Chehejia (\"Car and Home\"), was founded in 2015 and went public in the U.S. on July 30th, 2020. It is a Beijing-based electric-vehicle startup with vertically integrated manufacturing. It designs, researches, manufactures, sells, and offers services featuring a few models of electric vehicles.\nThe company's SUVs are hybrids of a sort. They use electric motors (one on the front axle and one on the rear), but those motors are powered by a combination of a 40.5kWh battery packanda 1.2-liter turbocharged engine paired to a 45-liter fuel tank and a 100kW electric generator, which generates power for the battery pack in real-time. The idea is that the car can be driven for about 100 miles on battery power alone, but it has a total range of nearly 500 miles when leveraging the combustion engine generator.\nThe Company's primary product is an SUV under its brand Li ONE. It also sells peripheral products and provides related services, such as charging stalls, vehicle internet connection services, and extended lifetime warranties. Li Auto is looking to sell a variety of SUVs built on its hybrid technology that range from around $21,000 to about $70,000. The company started shipping its first model in late 2019. It's a midsize SUV is well-appointed and has lots of touchscreens and technology. A full-size premium version is planned for release in 2022.\nDeliveries of Li ONEs were 14,464 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a 67.0% quarter-over-quarter increase and setting a new quarterly record. Deliveries for the full year 2020 reached 32,624 vehicles. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $635 million.\nLI auto went public on July 30th, 2020, raising $1.1 billion at an initial price of $15.50 per share but quickly reached almost $24. It is currently valued at approximately $37 billion at a price of approximately $25.72 per share.\nXPeng (XPEV)\nXiaopeng (XPeng) Motors is a Chinese electric vehicle and technology company that designs and manufactures smart cars. It was founded in 2015 and went public on August 27, 2020, using American depository shares, raising about $1 billion. To date, it has raised about $2.6 billion.\nXPeng aims its EVs at technology-savvy middle-class Chinese consumers, with prices ranging from $22,000 to $45,000 after government subsidies. In some ways, it is a Tesla knock-off at a much lower price. XPeng started production of the G3 in November 2018, and as of July 31, 2020, delivered 18,741. It started production of the P7 and began delivery in May 2020, and as of July 31, 2020, it had delivered 1,966 EVs. The P7 has a range of more than 400 miles. It plans to launch a third Smart EV, a sedan, in 2021. The G3 was among the top-three best-selling electric SUVs in China in 2019.\nXPeng is interesting because it has a platform strategy and is moving aggressively into autonomous driving. It uses a platform strategy to expand product offerings by launching one Smart EV model each year to broaden the addressable market. It builds new models on two highly flexible Smart EV platforms, called David and Edward, respectively. The David platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,600 millimeters to 2,800 millimeters, and the Edward platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,800 millimeters to 3,100 millimeters. It also adopted a platform approach for software systems.\nXPeng claims to be developing an autonomous driving capability for its EVs. The P7 is the first production vehicle to feature the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Xavier system-on-a-chip (SoC) autonomous driving platform. The company's Smart Electric Platform Architecture (SEPA) runs on 2 chips - NVIDIA for the XPILOT and Qualcomm's Snapdragon™ 820A for intelligent services and infotainment, including cameras inside and outside, radars, HD-map, and ultrasonic sensors. Like Tesla, it claims it can create sufficiently-autonomous driving without lidar.\nTo enhance brand recognition and allow more people to experience its Smart EVs, it deployed a small number of Smart EVs in a ride-hailing service in Guangzhou on a trial basis, but it has no current plan to scale up a ride-hailing service.\nXpeng sees first-quarter 2021 deliveries rising 450% year-over-year to 12,500 vehicles. Revenues are expected to increase 533% from a year ago. The company didn't provide bottom-line estimates for the quarter, but will likely post another net loss as it ramps up manufacturing, invests in R&D, and builds out a new manufacturing plant set to open in 2022.\nXpeng reported selling 12,964 vehicles in Q4 2020, up 303% from a year ago. It delivered a total of 27,041 vehicles in 2020, up 112%. It makes the P7 sedan, a rival to the made-in-China Tesla Model 3, and the small G3 SUV.\nThe stock opened on August 27, 2020 at a price of $15 and a valuation of $11 billion, but its stock jumped more than 40% shortly after. Its current valuation is about $35 billion at a stock price of approximately $36.13 per share. It had about $300 million in revenue in 2019 with a loss of about $500 million.\nNio (NIO)\nUnlike previous companies, Nio has been a public company for some time. It originally went public in the U.S. back in September of 2018, selling IPO shares at $6.26 and raising $1 billion.\nNio's IPO was far from smooth. After going public at $6.26 per share, it traded down to nearly $1. Then in the middle of the coronavirus outbreak, Nio received a much-needed investment of $1 billion from investors, including state-backed entities.\nNio designs, jointly manufactures, and sells smart and connected premium electric vehicles, attempting to develop next-generation technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving, and artificial intelligence. Joint manufacturing means that it uses a state-owned contract manufacturer to build its cars.\nNio plans to provide customers with comprehensive, convenient, and innovative charging solutions and other user-centric services. It began deliveries of the ES8, a 7-seater high-performance premium electric SUV in China in June 2018, and its variant, the six-seater ES8, in March 2019. Nio officially launched the ES6, a 5-seater high-performance premium electric SUV, in December 2018 and began deliveries in June 2019. It officially launched the EC6, a 5-seater smart premium electric Coupe SUV, in December 2019 with deliveries in 2020.\nNio sold 17,353 EVs in Q4/2020 and 43,728 for the year. It warned a shortage in chips and batteries will force a production slowdown to 7,500 a month in Q2 from 10,000 vehicles a month in February.\nNio currently trades at more than $43 per share, including a big jump recently, for a valuation of approximately $48 billion. It had revenue of $2.3 billion in 2019 for a loss of $3.8 billion.\nSummary\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this should provide exciting new investment opportunities. However, the investment terrain is complex. There are dozens of new start-ups where the public can now invest that were previously exclusively venture capital investment opportunities. Many of these are following different roads to success. There are legacy auto manufacturers that could prosper or get destroyed in this transition. There are some exciting new EV company opportunities in China. And then there is Tesla.\nThis EV roadmap is intended to help investors explore different roads to investment by explaining the basic strategies for these EV companies. These roads can have different opportunities and risks, and the roadmap helps to frame these. Above all, valuation is an overriding risk that is highlighted throughout this article.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4096824,"gmtCreate":1619047267146,"gmtModify":1680785021266,"authorId":3577494759333904,"author":{"id":3577494759333904,"idStr":"3577494759333904","authorId":3577494759333904,"name":"JKGan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/918b0f86622cedc2f23e00ebe3ce6924","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 300","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":"93.28%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":353977206,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":353970775,"gmtCreate":1616458451797,"gmtModify":1704794292821,"author":{"id":"3568173757403571","authorId":"3568173757403571","name":"lks","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a57ae82052ee22841b4ff92c03b5c6b0","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3568173757403571","authorIdStr":"3568173757403571"},"htmlText":"I go for EV ETF&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DRIV\">$Digital River, Inc.(DRIV)$</a>","listText":"I go for EV ETF&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DRIV\">$Digital River, Inc.(DRIV)$</a>","text":"I go for EV ETF $Digital River, Inc.(DRIV)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353970775","repostId":1196402560,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1196402560","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616134696,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196402560?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-19 14:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"New Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196402560","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, an","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>It's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.</li>\n <li>Last October, I wrote a popular article providing a roadmap for investing in electric vehicles, but since then, so much has changed: new entrants, new strategies, fluctuating valuations, etc.</li>\n <li>So, I updated and greatly expanded the previous EV investment roadmap.</li>\n <li>This update includes a deeper look at valuations for 23 EV companies with revenue projections, when available.</li>\n <li>It also classifies these EV companies into their primary market categories and summarizes their different strategies.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb96acc615cba9c7842860658c019ab1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\">Photo by Sven Loeffler/iStock via Getty Images\nMy article&nbsp;Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap&nbsp;published five months ago, was popular, and some followers have requested an update. Many new EV companies entered the market, most of them through SPACs. Valuations fluctuated wildly, and there has been a great deal of publicity around these companies.\nThis new updated EV investment roadmap is greatly expanded. In addition to updating the strategies and progress of companies previously discussed, I expanded the number of companies covered. This article also groups EV companies into their primary markets, enabling better comparisons and evaluation of market opportunities. In addition, it includes a comparative valuation chart showing every company's market cap with a comparison to projected revenue, where possible. This takes advantage (good or bad) of looking at the long-term revenue forecasts provided in SPAC mergers that public companies can't make.\nIn addition to the EV manufacturers discussed here, there are also EV investment opportunities in charging station companies, battery manufacturers, and battery materials companies. These were covered in the original roadmap and may also be updated in a later article.\nApproximately 2 million EVs were sold in 2019, and although the number declined along with all auto sales in 2020, it is forecasted to increase in 2021 and reach 8-10 million by 2025. Some forecast that EV sales will be greater than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2030, or even earlier. The automobile market appears to be moving toward a historical transformation, and exceptional investment gains can be made by anticipating new emerging industries and investing in the eventual winners of those new industries. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)are obvious examples. Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to create a new emerging industry.\nThere are also significant risks. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to be released in the next three years, which will drive rapid growth in EV sales. However, the expected sales from these new models, as well as the increasing expectations from Tesla, most likely exceed the total projected market. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the companies covered here won't exist five years from now. It reminds me of the internet bubble of the late 1990s when scores of internet-based companies went public with little or no revenue. Almost all of these failed within three years -- however, a couple, including Amazon, went on to enormous success.\nEVs provide a major new investment opportunity with high risks. To succeed, you need to have a clear EV investment roadmap.\nSo, how can you invest in this new emerging market? The EV landscape is complex and investment opportunities are varied. While Tesla is the unquestioned leader in EVs, some consider it overvalued and unlikely to show exceptional returns to new investors. The current U.S. legacy automakers are committed to introducing many new EVs in the next few years, and they have some entrenched advantages with volume manufacturing capabilities, a dealer infrastructure, and loyal customers. There are exciting new EV start-ups in the U.S. that have come public this year, mostly through Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), and there are several interesting publicly traded Chinese EV manufacturers.\nThis new roadmap for EV investment classifies companies into three primary markets segments:\n<ul>\n <li>TheConsumer Retailsegment includes EVs sold to consumers individually, such as SUVs, pickup trucks, sedans, etc.</li>\n <li>TheCommercial Deliverysegment includes local delivery EV vans and trucks sold to fleets.</li>\n <li>TheMedium- and Long-Haul Truckingsegment includes heavier Class 4 - Class 8 trucks, as well as special industrial vehicles.</li>\n</ul>\nIn addition, it categorizesLegacy ManufacturersandChinese EV Companies. This enables investors to evaluate investment opportunities by considering unique opportunities within each market segment.\nThere is an enormous amount of investment optimism for EVs, and retail investors have been aggressively buying into EV stocks with seemingly no regard for valuation. Then there is the additional challenge of valuing companies with no revenue, especially those coming public through SPACs. So, valuation is an important investment consideration.\nSo let's start by looking at an overview of comparative EV valuations.\nEV Investment Valuation Overview\nThe following chart summarizes valuations for 23 EV companies, including several legacy companies. For SPACs, market cap estimates are computed using the pro forma number of shares at closing, otherwise using the valuation of the SPAC prior to closing drastically underestimates the valuation, which may be misleading to novice investors. Price/Sales ratios (market cap divided by revenue) are used to compare valuations. As a benchmark, current P/S ratios vary. For example, auto and truck companies have a ratio of 2.7X. Software companies have the highest ratios of over 10X.\nIn the chart, companies that currently have revenue show current P/S ratios. Where projections are available, projected P/S ratios are computed. A note of caution, however. Many of the EV companies came public through SPACs and published their projections (which public companies cannot do), and many of these are likely to prove unrealistic.\nAll of the longer-term revenue projections come from the company (C) forecasts with a SPAC. Some of these may turn out to be accurate, not many are most likely unrealistic. Some, like Lucid, Faraday, and Arrival forecast hitting more than $10 billion in revenue in a few years, when it took Tesla more than 10. Things are different now and they might achieve these, but they could also find that it will take longer to complete development, ramp up production, and create enough customer demand. Many companies may also find that there will be significant capital requirements to achieve this type of growth, and shareholders will be diluted.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc360dfa7de01516b7f68d5962cf3017\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"883\">\nTesla, the \"gold standard\" in EVs, has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, which many people believe is overvalued. Its market cap is approximately 20X 2020 revenue and 10X estimated 2022 revenue.\nTesla (TSLA)\nIn the U.S., and to a lesser extent in China, Tesla is the dominant EV provider. It has approximately 60% of the U.S. EV market and about 20% of the market in China. I own a Tesla and love it, but an investment in Tesla stock requires getting comfortable with its valuation. Tesla has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, although declining lately, which some consider still overvalued while others see upside potential.\nThe investment opportunity with Tesla is based on the expectation that it will continue to dominate the EV market, or at least maintain significant market share, despite much greater competition from the expected introduction of hundreds of new EV models in the next few years.\nThere is a great deal already published about Tesla, so I'll move on.\nLegacy Automakers\nSome people think that the legacy automakers will simply fade away. Historically, that was the case in some other industries, but it is not going to happen to most automakers. They are not standing still waiting to become obsolete. Most have aggressive strategies to replace ICE vehicles with EVs. GM plans to invest $27 billion and build and launch as many as 30 new EV models by 2025. Ford plans to invest $29 billion in EVs by 2025 and launch as many as 16 EVs in the next two years. Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY)has also committed billions to develop new EVs.\nThe competitive advantage that legacy automakers have in selling their new EVs is their dealer network. Will new EV customers prefer to continue going to their regular auto dealer to buy their new EV?\nAlmost all legacy automakers worldwide are developing and launching EVs including Volkswagen, Peugeot, Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi, Hyundai/Kia. Let's look a little more closely at GM and Ford as the leaders in the U.S.\nGeneral Motors (GM)\nGM has committed to introducing 20 new electric vehicles by 2023, including EVs across Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC, and Buick. It recently announced that it has already sold out the first-year production of its Hummer electric pickup. By mid-decade, it expects to sell a million EVs per year in its two largest markets: North America and China. As a reference point, Tesla reported deliveries of 367,500 vehicles globally in 2019.\nGM has a solid platform strategy for its EVs. It plans on building its EVs using five interchangeable drive units and three different motors from its Ultium Drive System platform. Ultium energy options range from 50 to 200 kWh, which could enable an estimated range of up to 400 miles. Most of its EVs will have 400-volt battery packs and up to 200 kW fast-charging capability while the truck platform will have 800-volt battery packs and 350 kW fast-charging capabilities.\nThe key building blocks of the Ultium battery system are large-scale, high-energy cells. Engineered in partnership with LG Energy Solutions, they use both advanced chemistry and a smart cell design that's optimized for a broad portfolio of EVs. GM engineers and scientists are actively researching and testing new elements in battery chemistry to lower costs and improve charge times. Ultium can contain either vertically- or horizontally-stacked cells to integrate into vehicle design: vertically for trucks, SUVs, and crossovers, or horizontally for cars and performance vehicles. As new chemistry is developed and becomes available, the battery management system could digitally update the modules.\nGM also has other EV opportunities with its BrightDrop commercial EV service and its Cruise subsidiary. BrightDrop will not just sell delivery EVs, it will provide an entire service platform for commercial delivery customers. Its set of electric delivery vehicles starts with the EV600 and includes the BrightDrop EP1, a pod-like electric pallet. SeeGeneral Motors' Aggressive EV/AV Strategies May Payoff Big.\nWith its highest stock price of $61.65, GM's current market cap is approximately $89 billion, increasing primarily because of its progress with EVs. This approximately 3X valuation in 2018, but still only 13% of Tesla.\nFord (F)\nFord is also investing heavily in EVs. It just introduced the Mustang Mach-E, a battery-powered crossover with sports car styling, and plans to introduce an all-electric version of its best-selling F-150 pickup later this year. Also, planned is an electric edition of the full-size Transit van, which has been popular in the commercial delivery market. Ford has confirmed plans to build a luxury Lincoln crossover on a battery-powered platform provided by Rivian. The automaker also plans to introduce two new midsize electric crossovers, one each for the Ford and Lincoln brands by 2023.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd8523e15bccc57790940d4218f7b94e\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"1080\">Mustang Mach-E. Source: Ford\nFord's market cap is approximately $51 billion, twice its previous market cap, and also increasing.\nConsumer Retail EV Companies\nThe consumer retail market has some unique characteristics for new EV companies. Sales are made individually, not in fleets. This diversifies the risk upon launch because only a sufficient number of customers need to be attracted to the new EV. A wave of popularity can provide terrific momentum.\nHowever, the lack of a dealer network can be an impediment. Selling EVs directly to consumers instead of through dealers is prohibited in most states. By law, auto manufacturers can't compete with franchised dealers. These are laws that go back many decades to protect dealers. This can be a major impediment for new companies without established independent dealer franchises. So, new AV companies. like Tesla, need to sell their vehicles online. Tesla has successfully done this, but it took a lot of work and time. Lack of a dealer network also creates impediments in service.\nIn addition, over the next 4-5 years, autonomous capabilities will be increasingly important to luxury vehicles. This may prove to be a challenge to start-up EV companies because they can't afford to develop this technology.\nLet's look closer at the alternative consumer retail EV investments.\nLucid Motors (CCIV)\nLucid was founded in 2007 under the name Atieva and originally focused on building electric vehicle batteries and powertrains for other vehicle manufacturers. The company rebranded itself as Lucid Motors in October 2016 and shifted its strategy to develop an all-electric, high-performance, luxury vehicle. Shortly after that, it encountered financial difficulties and struggled to get short-term funding. In 2018 it raised more than $1 billion in investment, primarily from Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund, and gave up a majority of the company.\nLucid Motors reached an agreement to become a publicly-traded company through a merger with the SPAC Churchill Capital IV Corp., in one of the largest deals SPAC EV deals. The combined company, in which Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund will continue to be the largest shareholder, had a transaction equity value of $11.75 billion (for $10/share). At the same time, it closed a PIPE investment priced at $15 a share, giving it an implied pro forma equity value of $24 billion. Rumors about this deal circulated before the transaction was formally announced, making it one of the most anticipated SPAC deals. The hype and speculation drove up the stock price of Churchill Capital IV Corp. from its opening price of $10 a share to almost $60. I believe that some of this may have been driven by novice SPAC investors who didn't realize that the valuation of CCIV didn't include the eventual valuation of Lucid. The share price dropped more than 30% after the details of the deal were announced. It's also likely that Lucid renegotiated the terms of the merger based on the price jump.\nThe company's first product is the Lucid Air, a well-equipped luxury electric vehicle that features 406 miles of projected range and 480 horsepower with a starting price of $77,400, or $69,900 after the U.S. Federal Tax Credit of $7,500. This new Lucid Air model is positioned as a high-performance, ultra-efficient luxury EV sedan in a line of future vehicles that are expected to include Lucid Air Touring, Grand Touring, and Dream Edition versions.\nThe company plans to begin production and deliveries of the Lucid Air in North America in the second half of 2021. Previously the company aimed to begin deliveries earlier in 2021. It intends to sell the car in Europe in 2022, followed by China in 2023. Lucid vehicles will be produced at its new factory in Casa Grande, Arizona. The company plans to expand the factory in phases in the coming years to have the capacity to produce 365,000 units per year at scale. The initial phase of the $700 million factory construction was completed late last year and will have the capacity to produce 30,000 vehicles a year.\nLucid also apparently has a commitment to build an assembly plant in Saudi Arabia, which was rumored to be a condition of the $1 billion investment from the Saudi public fund. The Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund also provided $600 million in bridge financing and invested in the SPAC deal as well. So, while this assembly plant may be expensive and may not be critical, it will most likely need to happen.\nLucid has ambitious plans to achieve $14 billion in revenue in 2025, and its current stock price at $29.17, which gives it a market cap of more than $46 billion, may already reflect those ambitions. Its market cap is roughly the same as Ford.\nFisker (FSR)\nFisker, which had its origins with Fisker Automotive, is an interesting story that ended in bankruptcy. Henrik Fisker originally co-founded Fisker Automotive in 2007. He was responsible for designing many premium cars such as the Aston Martin. Subsequently, Fisker Automotive had to deal with a Tesla lawsuit against Fisker Automotive alleging it stole Tesla's technology, a controversial $528.7 million conditional loan from the Department of Energy, a recall of its battery produced by A123, and the loss of several hundred vehicles in hurricane Sandy. Henrik Fisker resigned in March 2013 because of disagreements over business strategy and in November 2013, Fisker filed its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case.\nHowever, Henrik Fisker retained the Fisker brand and trademarks, and in 2016 he started another electric vehicle company named Fisker Inc. with the Fisker brand and trademarks. In 2019, Fisker shifted from developing a sports car with a solid-state battery to the Ocean SUV featuring a lithium-ion battery, which it later abandoned for a solid-state battery.\nFisker is positioning itself in a unique segment for those who want the most environmentally friendly EV. While this may be an early growth segment for EVs, it's difficult to estimate its eventual competitive advantage and the size of this environmentally-friendly market segment.\nThe Ocean is a crossover made of recycled metal and plastic with an expected base price of $37,499, and an expected lease of less than $400 a month. Fisker's plan is essentially a lease-only business model that lets customers keep a vehicle for years or return it at any time. It aims to source motors, batteries, and other components from technical partnerships with automakers and will outsource production from existing auto plants. Fisker is currently taking reservations at $250 for the Ocean. It also announced an agreement with Foxconn to jointly develop a vehicle pioneering a new market segment to be sold globally under the Fisker brand commencing in Q4 2023. at the end of 2022. Production will start at Magna Steyr's manufacturing facilities in Europe. At the end of February 2021, it had 12,467 cancellable reservations.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/924a617c90fc3276d7bdab8c64ebfdcf\" tg-width=\"744\" tg-height=\"389\">Fisker Ocean. Source: Fisker\nFisker went public using a SPAC (Spartan Energy). The original combination with SPAQ in October 2020 was valued at $2.9 billion with a cash investment of approximately $1 billion. The stock currently trades at approximately $21 per share, after reaching a high of $28.50, from the original price of $10, which is a market cap of $4.6 billion. Fisker projects $3.3 billion in revenue in 2023. It had almost $1 billion in cash at the end of 2020 and expected to use almost half of this in 2021: $250 million on operating expenses and $250 million in capital investments. If the Ocean is delayed into 2023, Fisker risks missing its revenue objective and will potentially need additional cash to complete development and launch.\nFaraday Future (PSAC)\nFaraday Future was originally established in May 2014 by Chinese businessman Jia Yueting. It is headquartered in Los Angeles and has offices in Silicon Valley, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu. Faraday Future also had a turbulent history. In 2016, it struggled financially, and in 2017 some key executives departed over a dispute about financial issues. They later founded Canoo.\nIn December 2018 the company announced layoffs due to a cash crunch and financial troubles. The company's founder Jia Yueting filed for personal bankruptcy in the United States' federal court in Delaware on October 14, 2019. Following Jia's personal bankruptcy, he decided to step down from his role as CEO of Faraday Future in order to assume a new position as the Chief Product and User Officer. He was replaced as CEO by Carsten Breitfeld, the former CEO at rival electric vehicle startup Byton.\nSomehow, Faraday was able to raise $2.3 billion in private funding over 5 rounds from a variety of investors. In early 2018, it received $1.5 billion in funding from an undisclosed investor from Hong Kong.\nFaraday's flagship product offering will be the FF 91, featuring 1,050 HP, 0-60 mph in less than 2.4 seconds, zero gravity seats with the largest 60-degree reclining angles, and a user experience designed to create a mobile, connected, and luxurious living space. The FF 91 is targeted to launch in 2022.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e38bfb3211c72bb73bc26f2ebe296fe\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"854\">FF 91. Source: Faraday Future\nIts strategic partners include one of China's top three OEMs and a critical Chinese city, which the company believes will help establish its presence in the Chinese vehicle market.\nFaraday Future plans several cars based on its Variable Platform Architecture. FF 91 is the first production vehicle and flagship model. Pricing will range between $120,000 and upwards of $200,000, which places it against formidable opponents. Faraday Future is already looking forward to expanding its range with a pair of smaller models named FF 81 and FF 71. The FF 81 is planned to be priced at $75,000 to 95,000 with a 2023 release. The FF 71 is planned to be priced at $45,000 to $65,000 with a planned release of 2024.\nThe Primary Manufacturing Facility for FF 91 is in Hanford, CA with contract manufacturing for future models in Gunsan, South Korea.\nFaraday Future is planning high-Level automation with a Level-3 capable system using a redundant safety architecture based on NVIDIA Xavier System-on-a-chip. It will be capable of highway auto-drive and hardware ready for advanced auto-drive. It is targeting full autonomous valet parking &amp; summon in any parking lot or structure. Eventually, it expects full auto-drive, including full 360˚ sensor coverage for advanced auto-drive &amp; auto-park features.\nIn January 2021, Faraday Future announced that the company would go public through a reverse merger with the special purpose acquisition company Property Solutions Acquisition Corp. (PSAC). The combined company will be valued at $3.4 billion. Faraday Future is expected to set up contract manufacturing operations in China through their partnership with Geely. Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn is also expected to serve as an additional strategic partner.\nFaraday Future projects $10.5 billion in revenue in 2024 and $21.5 billion in 2025. Revenue is expected to start in 2022 with the delivery of 2,400 vehicles for $504 million. Most likely these projections could prove to be optimistic. At a current stock price of approximately $12.80, it has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nLordstown Motors (RIDE)\nLordstown Motors based in Lordstown, Ohio, was originally founded in 2018 by Steve Burns, the former CEO of Workhorse Group. The company licensed technology from Workhorse in return for royalties and a 10% ownership. Lordstown is named after the famous GM Lordstown manufacturing plant, which it acquired in November 2019 in an unusual transaction. GM announced that it was closing the plant and was under a great deal of pressure for that decision. So, GM \"sold\" the plant to a company that was renamed Lordstown for an estimated $20 million that it loaned to the acquiring company. Subsequently, the sale was redefined to be part of a $75 million investment by GM, of which $50 million was an in-kind exchange for the plant.\nLordstown went public through the SPAC DiamondPeak Holdings Corp. in 2020. It currently has more than 400 employees.\nIts first product is the Lordstown Endurance, a full-sized EV pickup truck. Lordstown is positioning Endurance for the pickup fleet market segment. The expected price is $52,000+, and it claimed to have more than 100,000 pre-orders by January 2021. However, a recent research article published by a short seller claimed \"Our research has revealed that Lordstown's order book consists of fake or entirely non-binding orders, from customers that generally do not even have fleets of vehicles.\" Lordstown is disputing that article.\nIt believes the fleet pickup market segment is underserved with no current EV-focused competition. It estimates that the full-sized pick-up truck fleet market is 1.2 million vehicles per year in the U.S., but it's more fragmented than other truck fleets. Pickup \"fleets\" tend to be much smaller and local, so there may not be much of a market distinction for a small company buying several EV pickups from a traditional auto dealer. About half of the total U.S. pickup market is classified as fleet sales, meaning more than one.\nEven though Lordstown is targeting the commercial fleet market, it is a similar product to the Ford EV F-150. So I classify it in the consumer EV category. It is a class 2 vehicle. Lordstown also may enter the SUV market in the longer-term.\nThe Endurance will compete against future models from Rivian and Tesla, as well as Ford and GM in ICE pick-ups and their upcoming EV pick-ups. Ford plans on selling its EV F-150 in mid-2022. Initial production of the Endurance is expected in the second half of 2021, so it may have a short market advantage. Nevertheless, it forecasts selling 65,000 vehicles in 2023 and 107,000 in 2024. These estimates could be a large percentage of the EV pick-up market in those years.\nAt the SPAC merger, the implied valuation for Lordstown was $1.6 billion, including a $500 million PIPE and the $75 million by GM. Lordstown's financial projections appear to be aggressive. It projects to start shipping the Endurance in late 2021 with projected revenue in 2022 of $1.7 billion, increasing to $5.8 billion in 2024. Its stock price at approximately $13.60 values the company at a market cap of approximately $2.2 billion. The value of the company depends on the likelihood of achieving its projections.\nA fleet sales strategy makes sense for Lordstown since it would be too expensive to build a retail sales and service capability. However, it's not clear that this will become a distinct competitive advantage. Some small fleets may still prefer to buy their EV pickups from established local dealers with service capabilities.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nCanoo started as Evelozcity in 2017 and rebranded as Canoo in the spring of 2019. Canoo is a Los Angeles-based company that develops electric vehicles. It has over 350 employees. Canoo has designed a modular electric platform purpose-built to deliver maximum vehicle interior space, which is adaptable to support a wide range of vehicle applications for consumers and businesses. Canoo expects to launch its first consumer model in 2022, simply named the Canoo that will be available by subscription, followed shortly after by a multi-purpose delivery vehicle and a sports vehicle, each built off of the same underlying platform. Canoo went public using a SPAC (Hennessy Capital Acquisition) and now trades as GOEV.\nCanoo's all-electric skateboard-like platform is designed to support both consumer retail and commercial vehicle configurations. The EV leverages Canoo's flat skateboard architecture for a high level of usable interior space. Its commercial vehicle program, expected in 2023, addresses a projected $50B+ last-mile delivery market with an EV platform that maximizes cargo volume.\nHyundai Motor Group said it would jointly develop an electric vehicle platform with the company.\nCanoo's platform strategy is interesting. It could be used as an EV platform for custom fleets of delivery vehicles. It has no AV development, but it claims to be \"AV Ready\" which could be useful for AV companies wanting to build custom AV delivery fleets.\nIts all-electric multi-purpose delivery vehicle is expected to be priced starting at approximately $33,000. It is based on Canoo's proprietary electric platform and will be offered in two initial size variants, with others to follow. Limited availability will begin in 2022, with scaled production and launch planned for 2023. Customers can pre-order the multi-purpose delivery vehicle for a refundable deposit of $100 per vehicle\nIt plans to offer two multi-purpose delivery vehicles: the MPDV1 and the larger MPDV2. The first has a 200-foot cargo volume and a range of 130-200 miles. It offers more capacity than today's ICE delivery vehicles at an affordable price with urban mobility enabled by a space-efficient footprint. The vehicle is also designed to fit within many height-restricted areas like parking garages.\nThe MPDV2 has a cargo volume of 450 feet and a range of 90-190 miles. Its roof and step-in height enable individuals to easily walk-in the vehicle and accommodate a standing position while inside.\nThe original SPAC transaction provided approximately $600 million, with a pro forma equity value of approximately $2.4 billion. Like other SPAC mergers, its stock price has fluctuated. It currently trades at about $15.90 per share for a market cap of approximately $3.7 billion. Canoo projects $2.0 billion in revenue in 2025 from about $500 million in engineering services, $1.2 billion from its consumer vehicle subscriptions, and the remainder from its commercial program. Canoo expects revenue of more than $300 million in 2022 after the launch of its lifestyle consumer vehicle.\nSince its first products are aimed at consumers, as is most of its forecasted 2025 revenue, I categorize it primarily as a consumer EV company. However, I think the design of that Canoo vehicle may not attract enough customers. More importantly, its subscription service way of selling its EV to consumers is risky. I think it has more potential in the commercial market, however, a dual strategy (consumer and commercial) is challenging. I like its skateboard platform design and that could prove to be a competitive advantage.\nRivian\nAlthough not yet public, I include Rivian because it has plans for an IPO as soon as Sept 2021, although it could slip into 2022. There are rumors that the company is targeting a market valuation of approximately $50B. Rivian has already raised more than $8 billion to date from Amazon, Ford, T. Rowe Price, and others.\nRivian has developed and vertically integrated a connected electric platform that can be flexibly applied to a range of applications, including the company's adventure products, as well as B2B products such as the Amazon last-mile delivery vans. The company's initial products, the R1T and R1S, provide a combination of performance, off-road capability, and utility. These vehicles will be produced at Rivian's manufacturing plant in Normal, Ill., with customer deliveries expected to begin in summer 2021. The launch of the R1S three-row electric SUV will follow in August.\nAdditional lower-priced models are being planned. The expected R2 series would include at least two smaller electric vehicles to coincide with the smaller platform, then another platform for R3.\nCommercial Delivery EV Companies\nEV truck companies differ based on the type of truck they are developing. The technology and markets are very different, so I separate them into two categories. The first category includes commercial delivery vehicles.\nCompanies making EV delivery vehicles have some major advantages that could make them good investments. First, delivery vehicles typically travel less than 250 miles during a day, so they can be conveniently recharged overnight. Secondly, they are typically sold in large quantities to fleets. This means that building a retail sales infrastructure is not necessary. It only requires a small salesforce. In addition, maintenance can also be provided at the fleet's operational center, so not as many service centers are required.\nThe disadvantage in this market is that there are a relatively small number of customers that buy in large volumes, so if the EV manufacturer can't get enough large customers, they may not be able to stay in business. GM estimates the combined market opportunity for parcel and food delivery, as well as reverse logistics, in the U.S. will be more than $850 billion by 2025.\nThe commercial market is expected to be a major growth area for EVs. Other start-up automakers like Rivian as well as legacy automakers such as Ford, Daimler, and GM have announced plans to enter the segment. GM recently announced its BrightDrop ecosystem for commercial customers that includes an all-new electric delivery van, the EV600 available by the end of 2021, as well as an integrated autonomous pallet and related services.\nThis group of EV companies focuses primarily on commercial delivery. In general, these are in the light-duty trucks category, although it also includes some medium-duty trucks. This generally includes the following commercial truck classes:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 1: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 0-6,000 pounds or 0-2,722 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 2: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 6,001-10,000 pounds or 2,722-4,536 kilograms.1</li>\n <li>Class 3: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 10,001-14,000 pounds or 4,536-6,350 kilograms.</li>\n</ul>\nIt can also include somewhat larger medium-duty EV delivery trucks:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.</li>\n</ul>\nEV delivery trucks also have an advantage over ICE vehicles because they can have a greater delivery storage space. Smaller buses and transit vehicles are also included in this category.\nLast-mile package delivery is not an immediate-term autonomous vehicle opportunity because it requires a delivery person to be on the truck anyway.\nWorkhorse Group (WKHS)\nWorkhorse has been a public company for ten years. Originally AMP Electric Vehicles, it was established in 2007 as a developmental-stage vehicle electrification company, focusing on conversions. AMP Electric Vehicles went public in 2010 trading on the OTC market under the AMPD symbol. When the economic benefits of conversion became less certain, it pivoted away from passenger vehicles and began to focus on electrifying commercial vehicles. AMP acquired the Workhorse brand and the Workhorse custom chassis assembly plant in Union City. In March of 2013, AMP formally changed its name to Workhorse Group Incorporated.\nThe Company designs and builds a last-mile delivery electric vehicle. The C-Series EVs cover the larger size of commercial delivery vehicles in Classes 3-5. As part of its solutions, it also develops cloud-based, real-time telematics performance monitoring systems. It sells its vehicles to fleet customers directly and through its primary distributor, Ryder Systems. It is currently focused on bringing the C-Series electric delivery truck to market and fulfilling the existing backlog of orders.\nThe C-Series looks like a viable EV replacement for the 350,000 last-mile delivery vehicles sold in the U.S. annually. It recently announced an increased driving range from 100 miles to 160, which should open more market opportunities. It has a viable short-term go-to-market strategy selling fleets to delivery companies. It currently has test vehicles with UPS, DHL, FedEx, Amazon, and Walmart.\nWorkhorse recently lost out on the United States Postal Services Next Generation Delivery Vehicle project, however, it is in the process of challenging this decision. Additionally, its investment in Lordstown also provides an indirect investment opportunity. On November 7, 2019, the Company entered a transaction with Lordstown Motors to grant LMC a perpetual and worldwide license to certain intellectual property relating to its W-15 electric pickup truck platform and related technology in exchange for royalties, equity interest (approximately 10%) in LMC, and other considerations. This was a $320 million asset for Workhorse at the end of 2020.\nWorkhorse received a significant increase in orders in Q4/2020 but built just seven trucks in the fourth quarter due to production systems and supply chain issues. Workhorse plans to continue to take it slow, striving to build three of its composite-body battery-electric trucks a day in March with a plan to reach 10 trucks a day by the end of June. This makes its original 2021 goal of producing 1,800 trucks unlikely. It partnered with Hitachi and Hitachi Capital America (\"HCA\") to improve the Company's manufacturing, operational, and supply chain capabilities as well as to develop a national dealer network to support Workhorse's sales with vehicle financing options for both dealers and customers.\nWorkhorse has a market cap of approximately $1.9 billion. While Workhorse had ongoing revenue, unlike many other new EV companies, its revenue is still insignificant. It had a revenue of $1.4 million in 2020 and $377,000 in 2019. It has a backlog of over 8,000 vehicles but doesn't expect to be able to build many of those in 2021. It raised $270 million in capital over several financings, providing the Company with additional capital to build its backlog. It had cash of $215 million as of March 1, 2021. Because Workhorse is a traditional public company, it hasn't made long-term financial projections like SPAC-based companies.\nElectric Last Mile (FIII)\nElectric Last Mile, based in Troy Michigan, was founded by Jason Luo, former CEO of Ford China before it was acquired by China's Ningbo Joyson Electronic for $920 million in 2016, including James Taylor, former CEO of GM's Hummer brand and former CEO of electric car maker Karma Automotive. Taylor serves as the company's top executive with Luo as the company's chairman.\nThe company plans to launch a small electric delivery van (class 1-2), called the UD-1, in the third quarter of 2021, and then introduce an Urban Utility vehicle (Class 2-3) in 2022. These are expected to compete with Workhorse, Rivian, Canoo, as well as the Ford eTransit and the GMC BV1, none of which is expected to be a Class 1 vehicle.\nThe company says it has 30,000 preorders for its van, representing more than $1 billion in sales. Electric Last Miles vehicles will be based on Sokon's commercial van made in China through a joint venture with Dongfeng Automobile Co Ltd. in order to accelerate development time.\nElectric Last Mile (ELM) is expected to manufacture the vans in a former General Motors Co. Hummer plant in Mishawaka, Ind., that the company is acquiring from China's Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co. Ltd. The plant has the capacity to produce 100,000 vehicles annually with plans to build approximately 4,000 UD-1 vans by the end of 2021. The UD-1 has a starting price of $32,500 and a range of 150 miles. The battery for the vehicle is expected to be supplied by the Chinese battery company CATL.\nELM believes that it has a competitive advantage because its first vehicle, the ELM Urban Delivery, is scheduled to be available in 2021. It is based on a proven, existing platform developed and sold by Sokon Group in the Asian market, where there are 30,000 of these electric delivery vehicles driving 1.5 million miles every day. At the close of the business combination, ELM will be an independent, U.S. company producing electric vehicles in the U.S. with Sokon Group providing access to its know-how, parts supply, and field and service data.\nELM expects that the Urban Delivery vehicle will be the first electric delivery vehicle coming to market in the class 1 category (GVW of 6,000 lbs or less) in the U.S. It will also have 35% more carrying volume compared to similar ICE delivery vehicles, a critical part of the value proposition. It also anticipates that its price and greater carrying volume will allow it to take market share from the class 2 category of vehicles as well.\nIts crossover product portfolio strategy targets commercial delivery vehicles spanning from class 1 to class 3, which represents over 80% of the last mile market.\nELM anticipates $122 million in revenue in 2021, rapidly increasing to $3 billion in 2025. The price of FIII stock increased immediately following its announcement with Electric Last Mile, rising more than 40% to $14.50, but now it has dropped closer to the original deal price to $10.25 for a market cap of approximately $1.5 billion.\nGreenPower Motor Company (GP)\nGreenPower Motor Company Inc. is a Canadian battery-electric bus manufacturer with multiple models of high- and low-floor vehicles, including transit buses, school buses, and shuttles. GreenPower offers commercial vehicles for delivery, public transit, schools, vanpooling, micro-transit, shuttles, and is developing a capability of autonomous operation. It went public on August 28, 2020.\nIn 2014 GreenPower launched its first purpose-built, battery-electric bus, the EV350, 40-foot transit bus. GreenPower received its first order in 2017 for ten EV350s from the City of Porterville, California.\nGreenPower's electric buses are purpose-built and designed to be all-electric, allowing it to put the battery and propulsion system in optimized locations that provide weight and structural advantages. Its primary EV is the EV Star with more than 120 vehicles delivered. It comes in several variations:\n<ul>\n <li>EV Star - Up to 19 passengers</li>\n <li>EV Star Plus - Up to 24 passengers</li>\n <li>EV Star ADA - Passenger and curbside lift for ADA</li>\n <li>EV Star Cargo - 5,000 pounds of load</li>\n <li>EV Star Cargo Plus - 570 cubic feet of cargo space.</li>\n</ul>\nIts EV school bus seats up to 90 students and has a range of up to 150 miles.\nGreenPower had revenue of $13.5 million in 2020 It has about $21 million in cash. It's an interesting alternative since it is already shipping EVs, has revenue, and also has a lower market cap of less than $1 billion. Since it did a traditional IPO, it hasn't published longer-term financial forecasts.\nArrival (CIIC)\nArrival was founded in 2015 in London to make a variety of commercial electric vehicles. It has approximately 1,200 employees across 11 cities in 8 countries. In November 2020, Arrival and the SPAC CIIG entered into a business combination agreement with an implied valuation of $5.39 billion.\nArrival plans on releasing four commercial EVs over the next few years.\n<ul>\n <li>Q4/2021: An electric bus for 8-125 passengers and a range of 240-400km</li>\n <li>Q3/2022: An electric delivery van with a payload of 975-2,000kg and a range of 150-340km</li>\n <li>2022: A larger electric van with a payload of 4,000 kg and a range of 190-400km</li>\n <li>2023: a small vehicle platform with a range of 100-300km.</li>\n</ul>\nThis mix provides a nice diversified portfolio of EVs. Arrival claims to have received orders from UPS for 10,000 vans. It plans a unique flexible manufacturing approach using micro-factories with each projected to manufacture 10,000 vans per year. All of its vehicles use a modular skateboard electric platform.\nArrival ambitiously projects $14.1 billion in revenue in 2024. Half of that revenue is expected from delivery vans, 22% from buses, and the rest from the large van and its small vehicle platform. With CIIC's stock price at $24.80 per share, Arrival's current market cap is relatively high at approximately $15.0 billion. Justifying its market cap depends on its ability to release, sell, and produce its four commercial EVs.\nProterra (ACTC)\nProterra is a commercial electric vehicle company with over a decade of production experience. The Company has designed an end-to-end, flexible technology platform that claims to deliver higher performance and a low total cost of ownership to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end customers.\nProterra, Inc., was originally founded in Golden, Colorado, by Dale Hill in 2004. Later the company wanted to take the lead in creating zero-emission, U.S.-based transit buses. In 2010 it moved its manufacturing plant from Golden, Colorado to Greenville, South Carolina. In 2015, Proterra was awarded a $3 million grant from the California Energy Commission to fund the design, development, and construction of the company's battery-electric transit bus manufacturing line in the City of Industry, California. It moved its headquarters from Greenville, South Carolina, to Burlingame, California, in October 2015. Proterra raised more than $600 million in funding.\nIt is going public through the SPAC ArcLight (ACTC) with a pro forma valuation of $1.6 billion. Upon completion of the transaction, Proterra expects to have up to $825 million in cash to fund growth initiatives, including R&amp;D and the expansion of its next-generation battery program.\nProterra has three complementary businesses:\n<ul>\n <li>Proterra Powered: Delivering battery systems and electrification solutions to commercial vehicle manufacturers</li>\n <li>Proterra Transit:Providing an electric transit bus OEMs</li>\n <li>Proterra Energy:Offering turnkey charging and energy management solutions.</li>\n</ul>\nThe company's battery systems have been proven in more than 16 million service miles driven by its fleet of transit vehicles and validated through partnerships with commercial vehicle OEMs. Proterra has produced and delivered more than 300 megawatt-hours of battery systems, more than 550 heavy-duty electric transit buses, and installed 54 megawatts of charging systems.\nProterra expected $193 million of revenue in 2020, with an estimated $750 million in existing orders and backlog. It projects $2.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with about 1/3 coming from its Transit business, and 2/3 From Powered &amp; Energy. At ACTC's current stock price of $17.85, Proterra has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nRivian\nRivian (see earlier description in consumer retail) will also compete in the commercial delivery market. It has been working with Amazon (a major investor) to build large electric delivery vans for Prime. Developed specifically for Amazon, a small fleet of Prime vans is on the road now, testing deliveries to customers and gathering feedback. In late fall, it could grow to a large fleet as Rivian ramps up the volume.\nThe EV range of 150 miles is tailored to Amazon's use cycle to optimize the size, weight, and cost of the commercial vehicle. Rivian has three sizes of batteries, but Amazon is starting with just one of them.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nSee the previous summary under consumer retail EV.\nMedium and Long-Haul Trucking EV Companies\nCompanies developing medium- and long-haul EV trucks face a more difficult challenge with battery range. These trucks haul much more weight than commercial delivery vehicles and because they are designed for long distances, they can't stop every 200-300 miles for recharging.\nFor this reason, many of these companies are using unique hybrid technologies for their trucks. The EV trucks in this category are primarily heavy-duty but also include some medium-duty trucks and specialty vehicles. A couple of the companies focus on retrofitting trucks to be electric.\nMedium-Duty Trucks\nThe medium-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 4, 5, and 6:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 6: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 19,501-26,000 pounds or 8,846-11,793 kilograms.1</li>\n</ul>\nHeavy-Duty Trucks\nThe heavy-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 7 and 8:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 7: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 26,001 to 33,000 pounds or 11,794-14,969 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 8: This class of trucks has a GVWR of greater than 33,001 pounds or 14,969 kilograms and includes all tractor-trailers.</li>\n</ul>\nThe Tesla Semi is a battery vehicle planned for a range of 300 or 500 miles and a speed of 60 MPH with 80,000 lbs of cargo. Tesla plans to start shipping the Semi later this year when it expects to have sufficient cell volume to meet its needs with the production of its 4680 battery pack.\nNikola(NASDAQ:NKLA)\nNikola has been a very controversial company. Founded in 2015, it originally had two different strategies. Its primary strategy is to lease fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) Class-8 heavy trucks and provide the refueling infrastructure to corporate customers. Its second strategy was to develop the Badger EV truck using GM technology.\nNikola originally merged with a SPAC to go public, at an enterprise value of approximately $3.3 billion. On June 6th, 2020, its market cap jumped to more than $30 billion, then later it dropped because of problems with its originally planned deal with GM.\nNikola originally expected a deal with General Motors that included the production of the Nikola Badger EV pickup truck. The proposed arrangement was that GM would take a $2 billion equity stake in Nikola and in return would engineer and produce the Badger. In November 2020, GM and Nikola scrapped the original arrangement. Now it appears that GM will supply Nikola with only its Hydrotec hydrogen fuel-cell technology to integrate into the EV manufacturer's commercial class 7 and class 8 zero-emission semi-trucks. So, the Badger is probably dead.\nNikola now sees semi-trucks as the company's \"core business\" and fuel cells as an increasingly important segment of the semi-truck market thanks to their efficiency in weight and consumption. It expects to begin testing by the end of 2021.\nIt has received pre-orders from Anheuser-Busch and a few other companies, but it doesn't expect deliveries until 2023. Hydrogen fueling stations are key to its strategy, both providing a source of revenue and necessary fueling infrastructure for the trucks to operate, but they also cost a lot. In its March 2020 investor deck, Nikola said a single station capable of fueling 210 trucks a day would cost $16.6 million. Its initial planned network of 700 stations would cost roughly $11.6 billion.\nNikola was also accused of misrepresentation, and its executive chairman and founder stepped down.\nAt the time of the SPAC merger, it projected an optimistic forecast of more than $3 billion in revenue by 2024, with a net income of $145 million. Most of that revenue was expected to come from its Badger truck, which is no longer in the plans. Yet its market cap is still almost $6 billion.\nHyliion (HYLN)\nHyliion, founded in 2015 in Austin, went public in October 2020 through the SPAC Tortoise Acquisition Corp. (SHLL). In March 2019, automotive parts manufacturer Dana Inc. made an equity investment into Hyliion, and together they are manufacturing and marketing Class 8 EVs to Dana's customers, including Volvo, Navistar, and Peterbilt.\nHyliion's strategy is unique, and a very different strategy from Nikola. Essentially it generates electricity onboard the truck using compressed natural gas (CNG). This should be a benefit for longer-range trucking. Hyliion's Hypertruck concept involves an all-electric drivetrain utilizing Dana's electric motor, inverter, and axle technologies. The truck's batteries are fueled by onboard tanks of CNG. With some 700 CNG stations already operating nationwide, it believes that there no need to build out expensive superchargers or hydrogen infrastructure.\nKuwait-based logistics company, Agility, has already placed an order for 1,000 Hypertrucks with initial deliveries targeted in 2022. Combined with a fully electric drivetrain and a natural gas-powered onboard generator to recharge the battery, the Hypertruck ERX will provide more than 1,000 miles of range.\nHyliion will eventually compete with Nikola (FCEV) and the Tesla battery-based Semi, but it plans to have a longer range and lower operating costs. Its HyperTruck ERX is expected to be available in 2021. It also has a hybrid-electric truck.\nThe combination with SHLL had an estimated market cap of about $1.5 billion, with approximately $530 million going to the company, including a $325 million fully committed PIPE. At approximately $13.50 per share, its current market cap is approximately $2.2 billion, significantly down from its peak. Hyliion projects $2 billion in revenue in 2024, which it claims is only about 2% of the addressable market.\nXL Fleet (XL)\nXL Fleet is a 10-year old company that went public through the SPAC Pivotal. XL is different because it provides fleet electrification modifications for ICE trucks across a wide range of vehicle classes (class 2-5) and types. It has over 200 of the largest commercial and municipal fleets as customers, with more than 3,200 XL systems deployed and over 130 million miles driven by customers to date. XL's customer base includes FedEx, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Verizon, the City of Boston, Seattle Fire Department, Yale University, and Harvard University.\nXL's business model is essentially retrofitting existing trucks to be hybrids and then later expanding into fully electric truck conversions. It claims to be creating a fully integrated platform for this. It remains to be seen if the retrofitting business will continue to grow or will it diminish when more trucks are designed and manufactured with EV capabilities.\nUnlike some other EV companies that have no revenue yet because they are still developing products, XL is more of a small company doing low-volume retrofits. It had $7.2 million in revenue in 2019, $21 million in 2020, and estimates $76 million in 2021, but it forecasts $1.3 billion in revenue in 2024 in its investor presentation. It plans to do this by expanding its product line from hybrid to plug-in hybrid to fully electric across a broader range of trucks. It claims to have a $220 million sales pipeline for the next 12 months.\nShort-seller, Muddy Waters, claimed after talking to former XL Fleet employees, that it believed the company significantly exaggerated its order backlog, that the return on investment for the company's products was likely negative, and that it would not be able to compete with big car makers on electrification. The company thoroughly refuted these claims.\nThe original enterprise valuation was approximately $1.4 billion at a $10 share price for the merger. Its price jumped by about 35% but has since gone back down to $12.40 for a market cap of about $1.8 billion. Although XL Fleet has revenue and other EV companies don't, this may not be an advantage. It appears to be a small company for many years that has gone public at a high valuation with grand plans. The risks are in its ability to make a jump from $76 million in 2021 to $1.3 billion in 2024, as well as the question about retrofitting being replaced by new EV trucks by then.\nXos (NGAC)\nXos Trucks specializes in the field of manufacturing fully electric commercial vehicles. It features a software platform that is designed to accommodate an extensive variety of medium-duty bodies, wheelbase, and range requirements up to 200 miles. It was founded in 2016 and headquartered in North Hollywood, California. It received $20 million of investment in 2020 and now is going public through a merger with the SPAC ExtGen Acquisition Corporation (NGAC) at an estimated proforma value of $1.965 billion.\nIts focus is on medium- and heavy-duty last mile and return-to-base segments (class 5/6, class 6/7, and class 7/8) commercial fleets and specialty vehicles. Some vehicles are currently in production and in regular on-road operations with key fleet customers, and it claimed 6,000 unit orders in backlog.\nIts MD-platform is for classes 5-6 for pickup and delivery. Its HD X-Platform is an adaptable chassis for highway, vocational, and severe work conditions. Its market is for customers with highly predictable routes that allow for batteries designed for a more limited range. A significantly larger frame and smaller battery pack allow for reduced density.\nXos has a bundled all-in-one offering that allows fleets to access all the tools and services they need to go electric with a single point of contact at a fixed monthly expense.\nXos had $3 million in revenue in 2020 and estimates $14 million in 2021. However, it forecasts $5.2 billion in revenue in 2025. At the current stock price of $10.30, its market cap is approximately $2 billion, about the same as its original SPAC transaction.\nLion Electric (NGA)\nLion Electric is a Canadian company founded by Marc Bédard in 2008. Its focus is to be a leader in designing, developing, and manufacturing purpose-built urban electric vehicles; vehicles that are specifically designed as delivery trucks, refuse trucks, bucket trucks, moving trucks, school buses, and shuttle buses. It has over 300 all-electric vehicles on the road today.\nIn November 2020, it announced that it was going public through the SPAC NGA. The transaction had an estimated pro forma enterprise value of $1.5 billion.\nIt plans on seven new truck models and one new school bus, for a total of 15 all-electric vehicles, representing a full line-up from class 5 to class 8 electric trucks and a full line-up of electric school buses. Its vehicles are produced at its existing manufacturing plant, which has the capacity for the production of up to 2,500 vehicles per year. It intends to open a new plant in the U.S. capable of delivering over 20,000 Lion trucks and buses per year by 2022.\nIts all-electric class 6 and class 8 commercial urban trucks combine power, comfort, and modern technology. Custom-built chassis and cabin designed specifically for an all-electric heavy-duty vehicle. The LionC is an all-electric Type C school bus manufactured in North America. The body and chassis were specifically designed to deliver optimal performance. The LionM is an all-electric midi/minibus that meets paratransit and public transportation requirements. Created and designed specifically for the paratransit market, the is spacious and offers unique features that provide enhanced security and accessibility to the end-users.\nLion Electric had $29 million in revenue in 2020 and expects $204 million in 2021. It forecasts revenue to jump to $3.6 billion a few years later in 2024. Its current market cap is approximately $3.6 billion based on its current stock price of $18.33.\nLightning eMotors (GIK)\nLightning eMotors, formerly Lightning Systems, was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Loveland, Colorado. It provides fleet electrification for familiar commercial vehicle platforms by retrofitting them with its electric powertrains. Lightning eMotors produces electric fleet medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including delivery trucks, shuttle buses, passenger vans, ambulances, bucket trucks, chassis-cab models, and city transit buses. It focuses on urban commercial zero-emission vehicles with a full range of class 3 through class 7 battery-electric and fuel-cell electric vehicles.\nLighting eMotors helps commercial fleets achieve their sustainability goals by offering zero-emission battery-electric vans, trucks, and buses based on familiar, proven vehicles from manufacturers such as Ford and GM. It works with customers, to help them identify their unique commercial electric vehicle, charging, and grant support needs.\nThe Lightning products include integrated all-electric powertrains for the Ford Transit 350HD passenger and cargo vans, Ford E-450 shuttle bus and cutaway models, Ford F-59 step/food van, Ford F-550 cargo trucks and buses, Chevrolet 6500XD Low Cab Forward model, and 30-foot, 35-foot, and 40-foot transit buses.\nLightning has 120 vehicles on the road, and 1,500 vehicles already on order from customers. In addition to making vehicles and powertrains, Lightning also provides a full suite of charging solutions for customers.\nThe deal with GIK has an enterprise value of $650 million, although there is also an Earnout of 20.0% of total pro forma shares outstanding to Lightning eMotors shareholders if the stock crosses certain price thresholds.\nAt the current price, of $11.73, GIK has a market cap of approximately $1 billion, a little more than the original transaction valuation. Similar to XL Fleet, Lightning has the risk that retrofitting may only be an interim business opportunity until more EV trucks are produced.\nPublic Chinese EV Companies\nChina will be the biggest EV market opportunity, and EV start-ups may do better there because there isn't as much entrenched competition from domestic auto companies. China is already the largest EV market in the world, with almost a million EVs sold in 2019. Its EV market represents almost half of the global EV sales volume and is much larger than the U.S. market.\nThe Chinese government has ambitions to become a global leader in new energy vehicles. Soon after the coronavirus outbreak subsided within the country, Chinese authorities announced new policies to support the auto and electric vehicle industries.\nThese Chinese companies are traded through American depository shares (ADS) that contain certain risks. There are financial reporting and transparency risks with these companies, and on top of that, the newer companies are being classified as \"emerging growth\" companies that are already exempt from certain transparency requirements set out in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Like the previous EV stock, these stocks have also been very volatile.\nIn addition to legacy auto manufacturers like BYD, there are also three Chinese EV companies that are publicly traded through American depositary shares.\nBYD Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:BYDDY)\nBYD, which means build your dreams, is the automotive subsidiary of the Chinese multinational BYD Co Ltd. It was founded in January 2003, following BYD Company's acquisition of Tsinchuan Automobile Company. The company produces automobiles, buses, electric bicycles, forklifts, rechargeable batteries, and trucks. The current model range of automobiles includes electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and petrol-engined vehicles. Thirteen years ago, on the advice of his famously skeptical lieutenant, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett made a $232 million investment in BYD, a relatively unknown Chinese car company.\nBy parlaying BYD's rechargeable battery technology into a fast-growing carmaking operation, it gained a foothold in the fledgling electric vehicle market, building longer-lasting batteries and cheaper vehicles than American and Japanese manufacturers were managing to do at the time. In BYD, Buffett and Munger believed they had found a company with a shot at one day becoming the largest player in a global automobile market that was inevitably going electric.\nBYD's start to 2021 was strong with 19,871 plug-in electric cars sold in January in China, including hybrid plug-ins. That was a big increase over 2020 but not as much as 2019.\nLI Auto (LI)\nLixiang, formerly known as Chehejia (\"Car and Home\"), was founded in 2015 and went public in the U.S. on July 30th, 2020. It is a Beijing-based electric-vehicle startup with vertically integrated manufacturing. It designs, researches, manufactures, sells, and offers services featuring a few models of electric vehicles.\nThe company's SUVs are hybrids of a sort. They use electric motors (one on the front axle and one on the rear), but those motors are powered by a combination of a 40.5kWh battery packanda 1.2-liter turbocharged engine paired to a 45-liter fuel tank and a 100kW electric generator, which generates power for the battery pack in real-time. The idea is that the car can be driven for about 100 miles on battery power alone, but it has a total range of nearly 500 miles when leveraging the combustion engine generator.\nThe Company's primary product is an SUV under its brand Li ONE. It also sells peripheral products and provides related services, such as charging stalls, vehicle internet connection services, and extended lifetime warranties. Li Auto is looking to sell a variety of SUVs built on its hybrid technology that range from around $21,000 to about $70,000. The company started shipping its first model in late 2019. It's a midsize SUV is well-appointed and has lots of touchscreens and technology. A full-size premium version is planned for release in 2022.\nDeliveries of Li ONEs were 14,464 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a 67.0% quarter-over-quarter increase and setting a new quarterly record. Deliveries for the full year 2020 reached 32,624 vehicles. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $635 million.\nLI auto went public on July 30th, 2020, raising $1.1 billion at an initial price of $15.50 per share but quickly reached almost $24. It is currently valued at approximately $37 billion at a price of approximately $25.72 per share.\nXPeng (XPEV)\nXiaopeng (XPeng) Motors is a Chinese electric vehicle and technology company that designs and manufactures smart cars. It was founded in 2015 and went public on August 27, 2020, using American depository shares, raising about $1 billion. To date, it has raised about $2.6 billion.\nXPeng aims its EVs at technology-savvy middle-class Chinese consumers, with prices ranging from $22,000 to $45,000 after government subsidies. In some ways, it is a Tesla knock-off at a much lower price. XPeng started production of the G3 in November 2018, and as of July 31, 2020, delivered 18,741. It started production of the P7 and began delivery in May 2020, and as of July 31, 2020, it had delivered 1,966 EVs. The P7 has a range of more than 400 miles. It plans to launch a third Smart EV, a sedan, in 2021. The G3 was among the top-three best-selling electric SUVs in China in 2019.\nXPeng is interesting because it has a platform strategy and is moving aggressively into autonomous driving. It uses a platform strategy to expand product offerings by launching one Smart EV model each year to broaden the addressable market. It builds new models on two highly flexible Smart EV platforms, called David and Edward, respectively. The David platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,600 millimeters to 2,800 millimeters, and the Edward platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,800 millimeters to 3,100 millimeters. It also adopted a platform approach for software systems.\nXPeng claims to be developing an autonomous driving capability for its EVs. The P7 is the first production vehicle to feature the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Xavier system-on-a-chip (SoC) autonomous driving platform. The company's Smart Electric Platform Architecture (SEPA) runs on 2 chips - NVIDIA for the XPILOT and Qualcomm's Snapdragon™ 820A for intelligent services and infotainment, including cameras inside and outside, radars, HD-map, and ultrasonic sensors. Like Tesla, it claims it can create sufficiently-autonomous driving without lidar.\nTo enhance brand recognition and allow more people to experience its Smart EVs, it deployed a small number of Smart EVs in a ride-hailing service in Guangzhou on a trial basis, but it has no current plan to scale up a ride-hailing service.\nXpeng sees first-quarter 2021 deliveries rising 450% year-over-year to 12,500 vehicles. Revenues are expected to increase 533% from a year ago. The company didn't provide bottom-line estimates for the quarter, but will likely post another net loss as it ramps up manufacturing, invests in R&amp;D, and builds out a new manufacturing plant set to open in 2022.\nXpeng reported selling 12,964 vehicles in Q4 2020, up 303% from a year ago. It delivered a total of 27,041 vehicles in 2020, up 112%. It makes the P7 sedan, a rival to the made-in-China Tesla Model 3, and the small G3 SUV.\nThe stock opened on August 27, 2020 at a price of $15 and a valuation of $11 billion, but its stock jumped more than 40% shortly after. Its current valuation is about $35 billion at a stock price of approximately $36.13 per share. It had about $300 million in revenue in 2019 with a loss of about $500 million.\nNio (NIO)\nUnlike previous companies, Nio has been a public company for some time. It originally went public in the U.S. back in September of 2018, selling IPO shares at $6.26 and raising $1 billion.\nNio's IPO was far from smooth. After going public at $6.26 per share, it traded down to nearly $1. Then in the middle of the coronavirus outbreak, Nio received a much-needed investment of $1 billion from investors, including state-backed entities.\nNio designs, jointly manufactures, and sells smart and connected premium electric vehicles, attempting to develop next-generation technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving, and artificial intelligence. Joint manufacturing means that it uses a state-owned contract manufacturer to build its cars.\nNio plans to provide customers with comprehensive, convenient, and innovative charging solutions and other user-centric services. It began deliveries of the ES8, a 7-seater high-performance premium electric SUV in China in June 2018, and its variant, the six-seater ES8, in March 2019. Nio officially launched the ES6, a 5-seater high-performance premium electric SUV, in December 2018 and began deliveries in June 2019. It officially launched the EC6, a 5-seater smart premium electric Coupe SUV, in December 2019 with deliveries in 2020.\nNio sold 17,353 EVs in Q4/2020 and 43,728 for the year. It warned a shortage in chips and batteries will force a production slowdown to 7,500 a month in Q2 from 10,000 vehicles a month in February.\nNio currently trades at more than $43 per share, including a big jump recently, for a valuation of approximately $48 billion. It had revenue of $2.3 billion in 2019 for a loss of $3.8 billion.\nSummary\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this should provide exciting new investment opportunities. However, the investment terrain is complex. There are dozens of new start-ups where the public can now invest that were previously exclusively venture capital investment opportunities. Many of these are following different roads to success. There are legacy auto manufacturers that could prosper or get destroyed in this transition. There are some exciting new EV company opportunities in China. And then there is Tesla.\nThis EV roadmap is intended to help investors explore different roads to investment by explaining the basic strategies for these EV companies. These roads can have different opportunities and risks, and the roadmap helps to frame these. Above all, valuation is an overriding risk that is highlighted throughout this article.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>New Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNew Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-19 14:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.\nLast October, I wrote a popular article providing...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车","01211":"比亚迪股份","NKLA":"Nikola Corporation","LI":"理想汽车","GP":"GreenPower Motor Company Inc.","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","GOEV":"Canoo Inc.","WKHS":"Workhorse Group, Inc.","F":"福特汽车","002594":"比亚迪","TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来","FSR":"菲斯克","HYLN":"Hyliion Holdings Corp."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1196402560","content_text":"Summary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.\nLast October, I wrote a popular article providing a roadmap for investing in electric vehicles, but since then, so much has changed: new entrants, new strategies, fluctuating valuations, etc.\nSo, I updated and greatly expanded the previous EV investment roadmap.\nThis update includes a deeper look at valuations for 23 EV companies with revenue projections, when available.\nIt also classifies these EV companies into their primary market categories and summarizes their different strategies.\n\nPhoto by Sven Loeffler/iStock via Getty Images\nMy article Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap published five months ago, was popular, and some followers have requested an update. Many new EV companies entered the market, most of them through SPACs. Valuations fluctuated wildly, and there has been a great deal of publicity around these companies.\nThis new updated EV investment roadmap is greatly expanded. In addition to updating the strategies and progress of companies previously discussed, I expanded the number of companies covered. This article also groups EV companies into their primary markets, enabling better comparisons and evaluation of market opportunities. In addition, it includes a comparative valuation chart showing every company's market cap with a comparison to projected revenue, where possible. This takes advantage (good or bad) of looking at the long-term revenue forecasts provided in SPAC mergers that public companies can't make.\nIn addition to the EV manufacturers discussed here, there are also EV investment opportunities in charging station companies, battery manufacturers, and battery materials companies. These were covered in the original roadmap and may also be updated in a later article.\nApproximately 2 million EVs were sold in 2019, and although the number declined along with all auto sales in 2020, it is forecasted to increase in 2021 and reach 8-10 million by 2025. Some forecast that EV sales will be greater than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2030, or even earlier. The automobile market appears to be moving toward a historical transformation, and exceptional investment gains can be made by anticipating new emerging industries and investing in the eventual winners of those new industries. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)are obvious examples. Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to create a new emerging industry.\nThere are also significant risks. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to be released in the next three years, which will drive rapid growth in EV sales. However, the expected sales from these new models, as well as the increasing expectations from Tesla, most likely exceed the total projected market. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the companies covered here won't exist five years from now. It reminds me of the internet bubble of the late 1990s when scores of internet-based companies went public with little or no revenue. Almost all of these failed within three years -- however, a couple, including Amazon, went on to enormous success.\nEVs provide a major new investment opportunity with high risks. To succeed, you need to have a clear EV investment roadmap.\nSo, how can you invest in this new emerging market? The EV landscape is complex and investment opportunities are varied. While Tesla is the unquestioned leader in EVs, some consider it overvalued and unlikely to show exceptional returns to new investors. The current U.S. legacy automakers are committed to introducing many new EVs in the next few years, and they have some entrenched advantages with volume manufacturing capabilities, a dealer infrastructure, and loyal customers. There are exciting new EV start-ups in the U.S. that have come public this year, mostly through Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), and there are several interesting publicly traded Chinese EV manufacturers.\nThis new roadmap for EV investment classifies companies into three primary markets segments:\n\nTheConsumer Retailsegment includes EVs sold to consumers individually, such as SUVs, pickup trucks, sedans, etc.\nTheCommercial Deliverysegment includes local delivery EV vans and trucks sold to fleets.\nTheMedium- and Long-Haul Truckingsegment includes heavier Class 4 - Class 8 trucks, as well as special industrial vehicles.\n\nIn addition, it categorizesLegacy ManufacturersandChinese EV Companies. This enables investors to evaluate investment opportunities by considering unique opportunities within each market segment.\nThere is an enormous amount of investment optimism for EVs, and retail investors have been aggressively buying into EV stocks with seemingly no regard for valuation. Then there is the additional challenge of valuing companies with no revenue, especially those coming public through SPACs. So, valuation is an important investment consideration.\nSo let's start by looking at an overview of comparative EV valuations.\nEV Investment Valuation Overview\nThe following chart summarizes valuations for 23 EV companies, including several legacy companies. For SPACs, market cap estimates are computed using the pro forma number of shares at closing, otherwise using the valuation of the SPAC prior to closing drastically underestimates the valuation, which may be misleading to novice investors. Price/Sales ratios (market cap divided by revenue) are used to compare valuations. As a benchmark, current P/S ratios vary. For example, auto and truck companies have a ratio of 2.7X. Software companies have the highest ratios of over 10X.\nIn the chart, companies that currently have revenue show current P/S ratios. Where projections are available, projected P/S ratios are computed. A note of caution, however. Many of the EV companies came public through SPACs and published their projections (which public companies cannot do), and many of these are likely to prove unrealistic.\nAll of the longer-term revenue projections come from the company (C) forecasts with a SPAC. Some of these may turn out to be accurate, not many are most likely unrealistic. Some, like Lucid, Faraday, and Arrival forecast hitting more than $10 billion in revenue in a few years, when it took Tesla more than 10. Things are different now and they might achieve these, but they could also find that it will take longer to complete development, ramp up production, and create enough customer demand. Many companies may also find that there will be significant capital requirements to achieve this type of growth, and shareholders will be diluted.\n\nTesla, the \"gold standard\" in EVs, has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, which many people believe is overvalued. Its market cap is approximately 20X 2020 revenue and 10X estimated 2022 revenue.\nTesla (TSLA)\nIn the U.S., and to a lesser extent in China, Tesla is the dominant EV provider. It has approximately 60% of the U.S. EV market and about 20% of the market in China. I own a Tesla and love it, but an investment in Tesla stock requires getting comfortable with its valuation. Tesla has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, although declining lately, which some consider still overvalued while others see upside potential.\nThe investment opportunity with Tesla is based on the expectation that it will continue to dominate the EV market, or at least maintain significant market share, despite much greater competition from the expected introduction of hundreds of new EV models in the next few years.\nThere is a great deal already published about Tesla, so I'll move on.\nLegacy Automakers\nSome people think that the legacy automakers will simply fade away. Historically, that was the case in some other industries, but it is not going to happen to most automakers. They are not standing still waiting to become obsolete. Most have aggressive strategies to replace ICE vehicles with EVs. GM plans to invest $27 billion and build and launch as many as 30 new EV models by 2025. Ford plans to invest $29 billion in EVs by 2025 and launch as many as 16 EVs in the next two years. Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY)has also committed billions to develop new EVs.\nThe competitive advantage that legacy automakers have in selling their new EVs is their dealer network. Will new EV customers prefer to continue going to their regular auto dealer to buy their new EV?\nAlmost all legacy automakers worldwide are developing and launching EVs including Volkswagen, Peugeot, Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi, Hyundai/Kia. Let's look a little more closely at GM and Ford as the leaders in the U.S.\nGeneral Motors (GM)\nGM has committed to introducing 20 new electric vehicles by 2023, including EVs across Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC, and Buick. It recently announced that it has already sold out the first-year production of its Hummer electric pickup. By mid-decade, it expects to sell a million EVs per year in its two largest markets: North America and China. As a reference point, Tesla reported deliveries of 367,500 vehicles globally in 2019.\nGM has a solid platform strategy for its EVs. It plans on building its EVs using five interchangeable drive units and three different motors from its Ultium Drive System platform. Ultium energy options range from 50 to 200 kWh, which could enable an estimated range of up to 400 miles. Most of its EVs will have 400-volt battery packs and up to 200 kW fast-charging capability while the truck platform will have 800-volt battery packs and 350 kW fast-charging capabilities.\nThe key building blocks of the Ultium battery system are large-scale, high-energy cells. Engineered in partnership with LG Energy Solutions, they use both advanced chemistry and a smart cell design that's optimized for a broad portfolio of EVs. GM engineers and scientists are actively researching and testing new elements in battery chemistry to lower costs and improve charge times. Ultium can contain either vertically- or horizontally-stacked cells to integrate into vehicle design: vertically for trucks, SUVs, and crossovers, or horizontally for cars and performance vehicles. As new chemistry is developed and becomes available, the battery management system could digitally update the modules.\nGM also has other EV opportunities with its BrightDrop commercial EV service and its Cruise subsidiary. BrightDrop will not just sell delivery EVs, it will provide an entire service platform for commercial delivery customers. Its set of electric delivery vehicles starts with the EV600 and includes the BrightDrop EP1, a pod-like electric pallet. SeeGeneral Motors' Aggressive EV/AV Strategies May Payoff Big.\nWith its highest stock price of $61.65, GM's current market cap is approximately $89 billion, increasing primarily because of its progress with EVs. This approximately 3X valuation in 2018, but still only 13% of Tesla.\nFord (F)\nFord is also investing heavily in EVs. It just introduced the Mustang Mach-E, a battery-powered crossover with sports car styling, and plans to introduce an all-electric version of its best-selling F-150 pickup later this year. Also, planned is an electric edition of the full-size Transit van, which has been popular in the commercial delivery market. Ford has confirmed plans to build a luxury Lincoln crossover on a battery-powered platform provided by Rivian. The automaker also plans to introduce two new midsize electric crossovers, one each for the Ford and Lincoln brands by 2023.\nMustang Mach-E. Source: Ford\nFord's market cap is approximately $51 billion, twice its previous market cap, and also increasing.\nConsumer Retail EV Companies\nThe consumer retail market has some unique characteristics for new EV companies. Sales are made individually, not in fleets. This diversifies the risk upon launch because only a sufficient number of customers need to be attracted to the new EV. A wave of popularity can provide terrific momentum.\nHowever, the lack of a dealer network can be an impediment. Selling EVs directly to consumers instead of through dealers is prohibited in most states. By law, auto manufacturers can't compete with franchised dealers. These are laws that go back many decades to protect dealers. This can be a major impediment for new companies without established independent dealer franchises. So, new AV companies. like Tesla, need to sell their vehicles online. Tesla has successfully done this, but it took a lot of work and time. Lack of a dealer network also creates impediments in service.\nIn addition, over the next 4-5 years, autonomous capabilities will be increasingly important to luxury vehicles. This may prove to be a challenge to start-up EV companies because they can't afford to develop this technology.\nLet's look closer at the alternative consumer retail EV investments.\nLucid Motors (CCIV)\nLucid was founded in 2007 under the name Atieva and originally focused on building electric vehicle batteries and powertrains for other vehicle manufacturers. The company rebranded itself as Lucid Motors in October 2016 and shifted its strategy to develop an all-electric, high-performance, luxury vehicle. Shortly after that, it encountered financial difficulties and struggled to get short-term funding. In 2018 it raised more than $1 billion in investment, primarily from Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund, and gave up a majority of the company.\nLucid Motors reached an agreement to become a publicly-traded company through a merger with the SPAC Churchill Capital IV Corp., in one of the largest deals SPAC EV deals. The combined company, in which Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund will continue to be the largest shareholder, had a transaction equity value of $11.75 billion (for $10/share). At the same time, it closed a PIPE investment priced at $15 a share, giving it an implied pro forma equity value of $24 billion. Rumors about this deal circulated before the transaction was formally announced, making it one of the most anticipated SPAC deals. The hype and speculation drove up the stock price of Churchill Capital IV Corp. from its opening price of $10 a share to almost $60. I believe that some of this may have been driven by novice SPAC investors who didn't realize that the valuation of CCIV didn't include the eventual valuation of Lucid. The share price dropped more than 30% after the details of the deal were announced. It's also likely that Lucid renegotiated the terms of the merger based on the price jump.\nThe company's first product is the Lucid Air, a well-equipped luxury electric vehicle that features 406 miles of projected range and 480 horsepower with a starting price of $77,400, or $69,900 after the U.S. Federal Tax Credit of $7,500. This new Lucid Air model is positioned as a high-performance, ultra-efficient luxury EV sedan in a line of future vehicles that are expected to include Lucid Air Touring, Grand Touring, and Dream Edition versions.\nThe company plans to begin production and deliveries of the Lucid Air in North America in the second half of 2021. Previously the company aimed to begin deliveries earlier in 2021. It intends to sell the car in Europe in 2022, followed by China in 2023. Lucid vehicles will be produced at its new factory in Casa Grande, Arizona. The company plans to expand the factory in phases in the coming years to have the capacity to produce 365,000 units per year at scale. The initial phase of the $700 million factory construction was completed late last year and will have the capacity to produce 30,000 vehicles a year.\nLucid also apparently has a commitment to build an assembly plant in Saudi Arabia, which was rumored to be a condition of the $1 billion investment from the Saudi public fund. The Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund also provided $600 million in bridge financing and invested in the SPAC deal as well. So, while this assembly plant may be expensive and may not be critical, it will most likely need to happen.\nLucid has ambitious plans to achieve $14 billion in revenue in 2025, and its current stock price at $29.17, which gives it a market cap of more than $46 billion, may already reflect those ambitions. Its market cap is roughly the same as Ford.\nFisker (FSR)\nFisker, which had its origins with Fisker Automotive, is an interesting story that ended in bankruptcy. Henrik Fisker originally co-founded Fisker Automotive in 2007. He was responsible for designing many premium cars such as the Aston Martin. Subsequently, Fisker Automotive had to deal with a Tesla lawsuit against Fisker Automotive alleging it stole Tesla's technology, a controversial $528.7 million conditional loan from the Department of Energy, a recall of its battery produced by A123, and the loss of several hundred vehicles in hurricane Sandy. Henrik Fisker resigned in March 2013 because of disagreements over business strategy and in November 2013, Fisker filed its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case.\nHowever, Henrik Fisker retained the Fisker brand and trademarks, and in 2016 he started another electric vehicle company named Fisker Inc. with the Fisker brand and trademarks. In 2019, Fisker shifted from developing a sports car with a solid-state battery to the Ocean SUV featuring a lithium-ion battery, which it later abandoned for a solid-state battery.\nFisker is positioning itself in a unique segment for those who want the most environmentally friendly EV. While this may be an early growth segment for EVs, it's difficult to estimate its eventual competitive advantage and the size of this environmentally-friendly market segment.\nThe Ocean is a crossover made of recycled metal and plastic with an expected base price of $37,499, and an expected lease of less than $400 a month. Fisker's plan is essentially a lease-only business model that lets customers keep a vehicle for years or return it at any time. It aims to source motors, batteries, and other components from technical partnerships with automakers and will outsource production from existing auto plants. Fisker is currently taking reservations at $250 for the Ocean. It also announced an agreement with Foxconn to jointly develop a vehicle pioneering a new market segment to be sold globally under the Fisker brand commencing in Q4 2023. at the end of 2022. Production will start at Magna Steyr's manufacturing facilities in Europe. At the end of February 2021, it had 12,467 cancellable reservations.\nFisker Ocean. Source: Fisker\nFisker went public using a SPAC (Spartan Energy). The original combination with SPAQ in October 2020 was valued at $2.9 billion with a cash investment of approximately $1 billion. The stock currently trades at approximately $21 per share, after reaching a high of $28.50, from the original price of $10, which is a market cap of $4.6 billion. Fisker projects $3.3 billion in revenue in 2023. It had almost $1 billion in cash at the end of 2020 and expected to use almost half of this in 2021: $250 million on operating expenses and $250 million in capital investments. If the Ocean is delayed into 2023, Fisker risks missing its revenue objective and will potentially need additional cash to complete development and launch.\nFaraday Future (PSAC)\nFaraday Future was originally established in May 2014 by Chinese businessman Jia Yueting. It is headquartered in Los Angeles and has offices in Silicon Valley, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu. Faraday Future also had a turbulent history. In 2016, it struggled financially, and in 2017 some key executives departed over a dispute about financial issues. They later founded Canoo.\nIn December 2018 the company announced layoffs due to a cash crunch and financial troubles. The company's founder Jia Yueting filed for personal bankruptcy in the United States' federal court in Delaware on October 14, 2019. Following Jia's personal bankruptcy, he decided to step down from his role as CEO of Faraday Future in order to assume a new position as the Chief Product and User Officer. He was replaced as CEO by Carsten Breitfeld, the former CEO at rival electric vehicle startup Byton.\nSomehow, Faraday was able to raise $2.3 billion in private funding over 5 rounds from a variety of investors. In early 2018, it received $1.5 billion in funding from an undisclosed investor from Hong Kong.\nFaraday's flagship product offering will be the FF 91, featuring 1,050 HP, 0-60 mph in less than 2.4 seconds, zero gravity seats with the largest 60-degree reclining angles, and a user experience designed to create a mobile, connected, and luxurious living space. The FF 91 is targeted to launch in 2022.\nFF 91. Source: Faraday Future\nIts strategic partners include one of China's top three OEMs and a critical Chinese city, which the company believes will help establish its presence in the Chinese vehicle market.\nFaraday Future plans several cars based on its Variable Platform Architecture. FF 91 is the first production vehicle and flagship model. Pricing will range between $120,000 and upwards of $200,000, which places it against formidable opponents. Faraday Future is already looking forward to expanding its range with a pair of smaller models named FF 81 and FF 71. The FF 81 is planned to be priced at $75,000 to 95,000 with a 2023 release. The FF 71 is planned to be priced at $45,000 to $65,000 with a planned release of 2024.\nThe Primary Manufacturing Facility for FF 91 is in Hanford, CA with contract manufacturing for future models in Gunsan, South Korea.\nFaraday Future is planning high-Level automation with a Level-3 capable system using a redundant safety architecture based on NVIDIA Xavier System-on-a-chip. It will be capable of highway auto-drive and hardware ready for advanced auto-drive. It is targeting full autonomous valet parking & summon in any parking lot or structure. Eventually, it expects full auto-drive, including full 360˚ sensor coverage for advanced auto-drive & auto-park features.\nIn January 2021, Faraday Future announced that the company would go public through a reverse merger with the special purpose acquisition company Property Solutions Acquisition Corp. (PSAC). The combined company will be valued at $3.4 billion. Faraday Future is expected to set up contract manufacturing operations in China through their partnership with Geely. Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn is also expected to serve as an additional strategic partner.\nFaraday Future projects $10.5 billion in revenue in 2024 and $21.5 billion in 2025. Revenue is expected to start in 2022 with the delivery of 2,400 vehicles for $504 million. Most likely these projections could prove to be optimistic. At a current stock price of approximately $12.80, it has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nLordstown Motors (RIDE)\nLordstown Motors based in Lordstown, Ohio, was originally founded in 2018 by Steve Burns, the former CEO of Workhorse Group. The company licensed technology from Workhorse in return for royalties and a 10% ownership. Lordstown is named after the famous GM Lordstown manufacturing plant, which it acquired in November 2019 in an unusual transaction. GM announced that it was closing the plant and was under a great deal of pressure for that decision. So, GM \"sold\" the plant to a company that was renamed Lordstown for an estimated $20 million that it loaned to the acquiring company. Subsequently, the sale was redefined to be part of a $75 million investment by GM, of which $50 million was an in-kind exchange for the plant.\nLordstown went public through the SPAC DiamondPeak Holdings Corp. in 2020. It currently has more than 400 employees.\nIts first product is the Lordstown Endurance, a full-sized EV pickup truck. Lordstown is positioning Endurance for the pickup fleet market segment. The expected price is $52,000+, and it claimed to have more than 100,000 pre-orders by January 2021. However, a recent research article published by a short seller claimed \"Our research has revealed that Lordstown's order book consists of fake or entirely non-binding orders, from customers that generally do not even have fleets of vehicles.\" Lordstown is disputing that article.\nIt believes the fleet pickup market segment is underserved with no current EV-focused competition. It estimates that the full-sized pick-up truck fleet market is 1.2 million vehicles per year in the U.S., but it's more fragmented than other truck fleets. Pickup \"fleets\" tend to be much smaller and local, so there may not be much of a market distinction for a small company buying several EV pickups from a traditional auto dealer. About half of the total U.S. pickup market is classified as fleet sales, meaning more than one.\nEven though Lordstown is targeting the commercial fleet market, it is a similar product to the Ford EV F-150. So I classify it in the consumer EV category. It is a class 2 vehicle. Lordstown also may enter the SUV market in the longer-term.\nThe Endurance will compete against future models from Rivian and Tesla, as well as Ford and GM in ICE pick-ups and their upcoming EV pick-ups. Ford plans on selling its EV F-150 in mid-2022. Initial production of the Endurance is expected in the second half of 2021, so it may have a short market advantage. Nevertheless, it forecasts selling 65,000 vehicles in 2023 and 107,000 in 2024. These estimates could be a large percentage of the EV pick-up market in those years.\nAt the SPAC merger, the implied valuation for Lordstown was $1.6 billion, including a $500 million PIPE and the $75 million by GM. Lordstown's financial projections appear to be aggressive. It projects to start shipping the Endurance in late 2021 with projected revenue in 2022 of $1.7 billion, increasing to $5.8 billion in 2024. Its stock price at approximately $13.60 values the company at a market cap of approximately $2.2 billion. The value of the company depends on the likelihood of achieving its projections.\nA fleet sales strategy makes sense for Lordstown since it would be too expensive to build a retail sales and service capability. However, it's not clear that this will become a distinct competitive advantage. Some small fleets may still prefer to buy their EV pickups from established local dealers with service capabilities.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nCanoo started as Evelozcity in 2017 and rebranded as Canoo in the spring of 2019. Canoo is a Los Angeles-based company that develops electric vehicles. It has over 350 employees. Canoo has designed a modular electric platform purpose-built to deliver maximum vehicle interior space, which is adaptable to support a wide range of vehicle applications for consumers and businesses. Canoo expects to launch its first consumer model in 2022, simply named the Canoo that will be available by subscription, followed shortly after by a multi-purpose delivery vehicle and a sports vehicle, each built off of the same underlying platform. Canoo went public using a SPAC (Hennessy Capital Acquisition) and now trades as GOEV.\nCanoo's all-electric skateboard-like platform is designed to support both consumer retail and commercial vehicle configurations. The EV leverages Canoo's flat skateboard architecture for a high level of usable interior space. Its commercial vehicle program, expected in 2023, addresses a projected $50B+ last-mile delivery market with an EV platform that maximizes cargo volume.\nHyundai Motor Group said it would jointly develop an electric vehicle platform with the company.\nCanoo's platform strategy is interesting. It could be used as an EV platform for custom fleets of delivery vehicles. It has no AV development, but it claims to be \"AV Ready\" which could be useful for AV companies wanting to build custom AV delivery fleets.\nIts all-electric multi-purpose delivery vehicle is expected to be priced starting at approximately $33,000. It is based on Canoo's proprietary electric platform and will be offered in two initial size variants, with others to follow. Limited availability will begin in 2022, with scaled production and launch planned for 2023. Customers can pre-order the multi-purpose delivery vehicle for a refundable deposit of $100 per vehicle\nIt plans to offer two multi-purpose delivery vehicles: the MPDV1 and the larger MPDV2. The first has a 200-foot cargo volume and a range of 130-200 miles. It offers more capacity than today's ICE delivery vehicles at an affordable price with urban mobility enabled by a space-efficient footprint. The vehicle is also designed to fit within many height-restricted areas like parking garages.\nThe MPDV2 has a cargo volume of 450 feet and a range of 90-190 miles. Its roof and step-in height enable individuals to easily walk-in the vehicle and accommodate a standing position while inside.\nThe original SPAC transaction provided approximately $600 million, with a pro forma equity value of approximately $2.4 billion. Like other SPAC mergers, its stock price has fluctuated. It currently trades at about $15.90 per share for a market cap of approximately $3.7 billion. Canoo projects $2.0 billion in revenue in 2025 from about $500 million in engineering services, $1.2 billion from its consumer vehicle subscriptions, and the remainder from its commercial program. Canoo expects revenue of more than $300 million in 2022 after the launch of its lifestyle consumer vehicle.\nSince its first products are aimed at consumers, as is most of its forecasted 2025 revenue, I categorize it primarily as a consumer EV company. However, I think the design of that Canoo vehicle may not attract enough customers. More importantly, its subscription service way of selling its EV to consumers is risky. I think it has more potential in the commercial market, however, a dual strategy (consumer and commercial) is challenging. I like its skateboard platform design and that could prove to be a competitive advantage.\nRivian\nAlthough not yet public, I include Rivian because it has plans for an IPO as soon as Sept 2021, although it could slip into 2022. There are rumors that the company is targeting a market valuation of approximately $50B. Rivian has already raised more than $8 billion to date from Amazon, Ford, T. Rowe Price, and others.\nRivian has developed and vertically integrated a connected electric platform that can be flexibly applied to a range of applications, including the company's adventure products, as well as B2B products such as the Amazon last-mile delivery vans. The company's initial products, the R1T and R1S, provide a combination of performance, off-road capability, and utility. These vehicles will be produced at Rivian's manufacturing plant in Normal, Ill., with customer deliveries expected to begin in summer 2021. The launch of the R1S three-row electric SUV will follow in August.\nAdditional lower-priced models are being planned. The expected R2 series would include at least two smaller electric vehicles to coincide with the smaller platform, then another platform for R3.\nCommercial Delivery EV Companies\nEV truck companies differ based on the type of truck they are developing. The technology and markets are very different, so I separate them into two categories. The first category includes commercial delivery vehicles.\nCompanies making EV delivery vehicles have some major advantages that could make them good investments. First, delivery vehicles typically travel less than 250 miles during a day, so they can be conveniently recharged overnight. Secondly, they are typically sold in large quantities to fleets. This means that building a retail sales infrastructure is not necessary. It only requires a small salesforce. In addition, maintenance can also be provided at the fleet's operational center, so not as many service centers are required.\nThe disadvantage in this market is that there are a relatively small number of customers that buy in large volumes, so if the EV manufacturer can't get enough large customers, they may not be able to stay in business. GM estimates the combined market opportunity for parcel and food delivery, as well as reverse logistics, in the U.S. will be more than $850 billion by 2025.\nThe commercial market is expected to be a major growth area for EVs. Other start-up automakers like Rivian as well as legacy automakers such as Ford, Daimler, and GM have announced plans to enter the segment. GM recently announced its BrightDrop ecosystem for commercial customers that includes an all-new electric delivery van, the EV600 available by the end of 2021, as well as an integrated autonomous pallet and related services.\nThis group of EV companies focuses primarily on commercial delivery. In general, these are in the light-duty trucks category, although it also includes some medium-duty trucks. This generally includes the following commercial truck classes:\n\nClass 1: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 0-6,000 pounds or 0-2,722 kilograms.\nClass 2: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 6,001-10,000 pounds or 2,722-4,536 kilograms.1\nClass 3: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 10,001-14,000 pounds or 4,536-6,350 kilograms.\n\nIt can also include somewhat larger medium-duty EV delivery trucks:\n\nClass 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.\nClass 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.\n\nEV delivery trucks also have an advantage over ICE vehicles because they can have a greater delivery storage space. Smaller buses and transit vehicles are also included in this category.\nLast-mile package delivery is not an immediate-term autonomous vehicle opportunity because it requires a delivery person to be on the truck anyway.\nWorkhorse Group (WKHS)\nWorkhorse has been a public company for ten years. Originally AMP Electric Vehicles, it was established in 2007 as a developmental-stage vehicle electrification company, focusing on conversions. AMP Electric Vehicles went public in 2010 trading on the OTC market under the AMPD symbol. When the economic benefits of conversion became less certain, it pivoted away from passenger vehicles and began to focus on electrifying commercial vehicles. AMP acquired the Workhorse brand and the Workhorse custom chassis assembly plant in Union City. In March of 2013, AMP formally changed its name to Workhorse Group Incorporated.\nThe Company designs and builds a last-mile delivery electric vehicle. The C-Series EVs cover the larger size of commercial delivery vehicles in Classes 3-5. As part of its solutions, it also develops cloud-based, real-time telematics performance monitoring systems. It sells its vehicles to fleet customers directly and through its primary distributor, Ryder Systems. It is currently focused on bringing the C-Series electric delivery truck to market and fulfilling the existing backlog of orders.\nThe C-Series looks like a viable EV replacement for the 350,000 last-mile delivery vehicles sold in the U.S. annually. It recently announced an increased driving range from 100 miles to 160, which should open more market opportunities. It has a viable short-term go-to-market strategy selling fleets to delivery companies. It currently has test vehicles with UPS, DHL, FedEx, Amazon, and Walmart.\nWorkhorse recently lost out on the United States Postal Services Next Generation Delivery Vehicle project, however, it is in the process of challenging this decision. Additionally, its investment in Lordstown also provides an indirect investment opportunity. On November 7, 2019, the Company entered a transaction with Lordstown Motors to grant LMC a perpetual and worldwide license to certain intellectual property relating to its W-15 electric pickup truck platform and related technology in exchange for royalties, equity interest (approximately 10%) in LMC, and other considerations. This was a $320 million asset for Workhorse at the end of 2020.\nWorkhorse received a significant increase in orders in Q4/2020 but built just seven trucks in the fourth quarter due to production systems and supply chain issues. Workhorse plans to continue to take it slow, striving to build three of its composite-body battery-electric trucks a day in March with a plan to reach 10 trucks a day by the end of June. This makes its original 2021 goal of producing 1,800 trucks unlikely. It partnered with Hitachi and Hitachi Capital America (\"HCA\") to improve the Company's manufacturing, operational, and supply chain capabilities as well as to develop a national dealer network to support Workhorse's sales with vehicle financing options for both dealers and customers.\nWorkhorse has a market cap of approximately $1.9 billion. While Workhorse had ongoing revenue, unlike many other new EV companies, its revenue is still insignificant. It had a revenue of $1.4 million in 2020 and $377,000 in 2019. It has a backlog of over 8,000 vehicles but doesn't expect to be able to build many of those in 2021. It raised $270 million in capital over several financings, providing the Company with additional capital to build its backlog. It had cash of $215 million as of March 1, 2021. Because Workhorse is a traditional public company, it hasn't made long-term financial projections like SPAC-based companies.\nElectric Last Mile (FIII)\nElectric Last Mile, based in Troy Michigan, was founded by Jason Luo, former CEO of Ford China before it was acquired by China's Ningbo Joyson Electronic for $920 million in 2016, including James Taylor, former CEO of GM's Hummer brand and former CEO of electric car maker Karma Automotive. Taylor serves as the company's top executive with Luo as the company's chairman.\nThe company plans to launch a small electric delivery van (class 1-2), called the UD-1, in the third quarter of 2021, and then introduce an Urban Utility vehicle (Class 2-3) in 2022. These are expected to compete with Workhorse, Rivian, Canoo, as well as the Ford eTransit and the GMC BV1, none of which is expected to be a Class 1 vehicle.\nThe company says it has 30,000 preorders for its van, representing more than $1 billion in sales. Electric Last Miles vehicles will be based on Sokon's commercial van made in China through a joint venture with Dongfeng Automobile Co Ltd. in order to accelerate development time.\nElectric Last Mile (ELM) is expected to manufacture the vans in a former General Motors Co. Hummer plant in Mishawaka, Ind., that the company is acquiring from China's Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co. Ltd. The plant has the capacity to produce 100,000 vehicles annually with plans to build approximately 4,000 UD-1 vans by the end of 2021. The UD-1 has a starting price of $32,500 and a range of 150 miles. The battery for the vehicle is expected to be supplied by the Chinese battery company CATL.\nELM believes that it has a competitive advantage because its first vehicle, the ELM Urban Delivery, is scheduled to be available in 2021. It is based on a proven, existing platform developed and sold by Sokon Group in the Asian market, where there are 30,000 of these electric delivery vehicles driving 1.5 million miles every day. At the close of the business combination, ELM will be an independent, U.S. company producing electric vehicles in the U.S. with Sokon Group providing access to its know-how, parts supply, and field and service data.\nELM expects that the Urban Delivery vehicle will be the first electric delivery vehicle coming to market in the class 1 category (GVW of 6,000 lbs or less) in the U.S. It will also have 35% more carrying volume compared to similar ICE delivery vehicles, a critical part of the value proposition. It also anticipates that its price and greater carrying volume will allow it to take market share from the class 2 category of vehicles as well.\nIts crossover product portfolio strategy targets commercial delivery vehicles spanning from class 1 to class 3, which represents over 80% of the last mile market.\nELM anticipates $122 million in revenue in 2021, rapidly increasing to $3 billion in 2025. The price of FIII stock increased immediately following its announcement with Electric Last Mile, rising more than 40% to $14.50, but now it has dropped closer to the original deal price to $10.25 for a market cap of approximately $1.5 billion.\nGreenPower Motor Company (GP)\nGreenPower Motor Company Inc. is a Canadian battery-electric bus manufacturer with multiple models of high- and low-floor vehicles, including transit buses, school buses, and shuttles. GreenPower offers commercial vehicles for delivery, public transit, schools, vanpooling, micro-transit, shuttles, and is developing a capability of autonomous operation. It went public on August 28, 2020.\nIn 2014 GreenPower launched its first purpose-built, battery-electric bus, the EV350, 40-foot transit bus. GreenPower received its first order in 2017 for ten EV350s from the City of Porterville, California.\nGreenPower's electric buses are purpose-built and designed to be all-electric, allowing it to put the battery and propulsion system in optimized locations that provide weight and structural advantages. Its primary EV is the EV Star with more than 120 vehicles delivered. It comes in several variations:\n\nEV Star - Up to 19 passengers\nEV Star Plus - Up to 24 passengers\nEV Star ADA - Passenger and curbside lift for ADA\nEV Star Cargo - 5,000 pounds of load\nEV Star Cargo Plus - 570 cubic feet of cargo space.\n\nIts EV school bus seats up to 90 students and has a range of up to 150 miles.\nGreenPower had revenue of $13.5 million in 2020 It has about $21 million in cash. It's an interesting alternative since it is already shipping EVs, has revenue, and also has a lower market cap of less than $1 billion. Since it did a traditional IPO, it hasn't published longer-term financial forecasts.\nArrival (CIIC)\nArrival was founded in 2015 in London to make a variety of commercial electric vehicles. It has approximately 1,200 employees across 11 cities in 8 countries. In November 2020, Arrival and the SPAC CIIG entered into a business combination agreement with an implied valuation of $5.39 billion.\nArrival plans on releasing four commercial EVs over the next few years.\n\nQ4/2021: An electric bus for 8-125 passengers and a range of 240-400km\nQ3/2022: An electric delivery van with a payload of 975-2,000kg and a range of 150-340km\n2022: A larger electric van with a payload of 4,000 kg and a range of 190-400km\n2023: a small vehicle platform with a range of 100-300km.\n\nThis mix provides a nice diversified portfolio of EVs. Arrival claims to have received orders from UPS for 10,000 vans. It plans a unique flexible manufacturing approach using micro-factories with each projected to manufacture 10,000 vans per year. All of its vehicles use a modular skateboard electric platform.\nArrival ambitiously projects $14.1 billion in revenue in 2024. Half of that revenue is expected from delivery vans, 22% from buses, and the rest from the large van and its small vehicle platform. With CIIC's stock price at $24.80 per share, Arrival's current market cap is relatively high at approximately $15.0 billion. Justifying its market cap depends on its ability to release, sell, and produce its four commercial EVs.\nProterra (ACTC)\nProterra is a commercial electric vehicle company with over a decade of production experience. The Company has designed an end-to-end, flexible technology platform that claims to deliver higher performance and a low total cost of ownership to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end customers.\nProterra, Inc., was originally founded in Golden, Colorado, by Dale Hill in 2004. Later the company wanted to take the lead in creating zero-emission, U.S.-based transit buses. In 2010 it moved its manufacturing plant from Golden, Colorado to Greenville, South Carolina. In 2015, Proterra was awarded a $3 million grant from the California Energy Commission to fund the design, development, and construction of the company's battery-electric transit bus manufacturing line in the City of Industry, California. It moved its headquarters from Greenville, South Carolina, to Burlingame, California, in October 2015. Proterra raised more than $600 million in funding.\nIt is going public through the SPAC ArcLight (ACTC) with a pro forma valuation of $1.6 billion. Upon completion of the transaction, Proterra expects to have up to $825 million in cash to fund growth initiatives, including R&D and the expansion of its next-generation battery program.\nProterra has three complementary businesses:\n\nProterra Powered: Delivering battery systems and electrification solutions to commercial vehicle manufacturers\nProterra Transit:Providing an electric transit bus OEMs\nProterra Energy:Offering turnkey charging and energy management solutions.\n\nThe company's battery systems have been proven in more than 16 million service miles driven by its fleet of transit vehicles and validated through partnerships with commercial vehicle OEMs. Proterra has produced and delivered more than 300 megawatt-hours of battery systems, more than 550 heavy-duty electric transit buses, and installed 54 megawatts of charging systems.\nProterra expected $193 million of revenue in 2020, with an estimated $750 million in existing orders and backlog. It projects $2.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with about 1/3 coming from its Transit business, and 2/3 From Powered & Energy. At ACTC's current stock price of $17.85, Proterra has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nRivian\nRivian (see earlier description in consumer retail) will also compete in the commercial delivery market. It has been working with Amazon (a major investor) to build large electric delivery vans for Prime. Developed specifically for Amazon, a small fleet of Prime vans is on the road now, testing deliveries to customers and gathering feedback. In late fall, it could grow to a large fleet as Rivian ramps up the volume.\nThe EV range of 150 miles is tailored to Amazon's use cycle to optimize the size, weight, and cost of the commercial vehicle. Rivian has three sizes of batteries, but Amazon is starting with just one of them.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nSee the previous summary under consumer retail EV.\nMedium and Long-Haul Trucking EV Companies\nCompanies developing medium- and long-haul EV trucks face a more difficult challenge with battery range. These trucks haul much more weight than commercial delivery vehicles and because they are designed for long distances, they can't stop every 200-300 miles for recharging.\nFor this reason, many of these companies are using unique hybrid technologies for their trucks. The EV trucks in this category are primarily heavy-duty but also include some medium-duty trucks and specialty vehicles. A couple of the companies focus on retrofitting trucks to be electric.\nMedium-Duty Trucks\nThe medium-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 4, 5, and 6:\n\nClass 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.\nClass 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.\nClass 6: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 19,501-26,000 pounds or 8,846-11,793 kilograms.1\n\nHeavy-Duty Trucks\nThe heavy-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 7 and 8:\n\nClass 7: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 26,001 to 33,000 pounds or 11,794-14,969 kilograms.\nClass 8: This class of trucks has a GVWR of greater than 33,001 pounds or 14,969 kilograms and includes all tractor-trailers.\n\nThe Tesla Semi is a battery vehicle planned for a range of 300 or 500 miles and a speed of 60 MPH with 80,000 lbs of cargo. Tesla plans to start shipping the Semi later this year when it expects to have sufficient cell volume to meet its needs with the production of its 4680 battery pack.\nNikola(NASDAQ:NKLA)\nNikola has been a very controversial company. Founded in 2015, it originally had two different strategies. Its primary strategy is to lease fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) Class-8 heavy trucks and provide the refueling infrastructure to corporate customers. Its second strategy was to develop the Badger EV truck using GM technology.\nNikola originally merged with a SPAC to go public, at an enterprise value of approximately $3.3 billion. On June 6th, 2020, its market cap jumped to more than $30 billion, then later it dropped because of problems with its originally planned deal with GM.\nNikola originally expected a deal with General Motors that included the production of the Nikola Badger EV pickup truck. The proposed arrangement was that GM would take a $2 billion equity stake in Nikola and in return would engineer and produce the Badger. In November 2020, GM and Nikola scrapped the original arrangement. Now it appears that GM will supply Nikola with only its Hydrotec hydrogen fuel-cell technology to integrate into the EV manufacturer's commercial class 7 and class 8 zero-emission semi-trucks. So, the Badger is probably dead.\nNikola now sees semi-trucks as the company's \"core business\" and fuel cells as an increasingly important segment of the semi-truck market thanks to their efficiency in weight and consumption. It expects to begin testing by the end of 2021.\nIt has received pre-orders from Anheuser-Busch and a few other companies, but it doesn't expect deliveries until 2023. Hydrogen fueling stations are key to its strategy, both providing a source of revenue and necessary fueling infrastructure for the trucks to operate, but they also cost a lot. In its March 2020 investor deck, Nikola said a single station capable of fueling 210 trucks a day would cost $16.6 million. Its initial planned network of 700 stations would cost roughly $11.6 billion.\nNikola was also accused of misrepresentation, and its executive chairman and founder stepped down.\nAt the time of the SPAC merger, it projected an optimistic forecast of more than $3 billion in revenue by 2024, with a net income of $145 million. Most of that revenue was expected to come from its Badger truck, which is no longer in the plans. Yet its market cap is still almost $6 billion.\nHyliion (HYLN)\nHyliion, founded in 2015 in Austin, went public in October 2020 through the SPAC Tortoise Acquisition Corp. (SHLL). In March 2019, automotive parts manufacturer Dana Inc. made an equity investment into Hyliion, and together they are manufacturing and marketing Class 8 EVs to Dana's customers, including Volvo, Navistar, and Peterbilt.\nHyliion's strategy is unique, and a very different strategy from Nikola. Essentially it generates electricity onboard the truck using compressed natural gas (CNG). This should be a benefit for longer-range trucking. Hyliion's Hypertruck concept involves an all-electric drivetrain utilizing Dana's electric motor, inverter, and axle technologies. The truck's batteries are fueled by onboard tanks of CNG. With some 700 CNG stations already operating nationwide, it believes that there no need to build out expensive superchargers or hydrogen infrastructure.\nKuwait-based logistics company, Agility, has already placed an order for 1,000 Hypertrucks with initial deliveries targeted in 2022. Combined with a fully electric drivetrain and a natural gas-powered onboard generator to recharge the battery, the Hypertruck ERX will provide more than 1,000 miles of range.\nHyliion will eventually compete with Nikola (FCEV) and the Tesla battery-based Semi, but it plans to have a longer range and lower operating costs. Its HyperTruck ERX is expected to be available in 2021. It also has a hybrid-electric truck.\nThe combination with SHLL had an estimated market cap of about $1.5 billion, with approximately $530 million going to the company, including a $325 million fully committed PIPE. At approximately $13.50 per share, its current market cap is approximately $2.2 billion, significantly down from its peak. Hyliion projects $2 billion in revenue in 2024, which it claims is only about 2% of the addressable market.\nXL Fleet (XL)\nXL Fleet is a 10-year old company that went public through the SPAC Pivotal. XL is different because it provides fleet electrification modifications for ICE trucks across a wide range of vehicle classes (class 2-5) and types. It has over 200 of the largest commercial and municipal fleets as customers, with more than 3,200 XL systems deployed and over 130 million miles driven by customers to date. XL's customer base includes FedEx, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Verizon, the City of Boston, Seattle Fire Department, Yale University, and Harvard University.\nXL's business model is essentially retrofitting existing trucks to be hybrids and then later expanding into fully electric truck conversions. It claims to be creating a fully integrated platform for this. It remains to be seen if the retrofitting business will continue to grow or will it diminish when more trucks are designed and manufactured with EV capabilities.\nUnlike some other EV companies that have no revenue yet because they are still developing products, XL is more of a small company doing low-volume retrofits. It had $7.2 million in revenue in 2019, $21 million in 2020, and estimates $76 million in 2021, but it forecasts $1.3 billion in revenue in 2024 in its investor presentation. It plans to do this by expanding its product line from hybrid to plug-in hybrid to fully electric across a broader range of trucks. It claims to have a $220 million sales pipeline for the next 12 months.\nShort-seller, Muddy Waters, claimed after talking to former XL Fleet employees, that it believed the company significantly exaggerated its order backlog, that the return on investment for the company's products was likely negative, and that it would not be able to compete with big car makers on electrification. The company thoroughly refuted these claims.\nThe original enterprise valuation was approximately $1.4 billion at a $10 share price for the merger. Its price jumped by about 35% but has since gone back down to $12.40 for a market cap of about $1.8 billion. Although XL Fleet has revenue and other EV companies don't, this may not be an advantage. It appears to be a small company for many years that has gone public at a high valuation with grand plans. The risks are in its ability to make a jump from $76 million in 2021 to $1.3 billion in 2024, as well as the question about retrofitting being replaced by new EV trucks by then.\nXos (NGAC)\nXos Trucks specializes in the field of manufacturing fully electric commercial vehicles. It features a software platform that is designed to accommodate an extensive variety of medium-duty bodies, wheelbase, and range requirements up to 200 miles. It was founded in 2016 and headquartered in North Hollywood, California. It received $20 million of investment in 2020 and now is going public through a merger with the SPAC ExtGen Acquisition Corporation (NGAC) at an estimated proforma value of $1.965 billion.\nIts focus is on medium- and heavy-duty last mile and return-to-base segments (class 5/6, class 6/7, and class 7/8) commercial fleets and specialty vehicles. Some vehicles are currently in production and in regular on-road operations with key fleet customers, and it claimed 6,000 unit orders in backlog.\nIts MD-platform is for classes 5-6 for pickup and delivery. Its HD X-Platform is an adaptable chassis for highway, vocational, and severe work conditions. Its market is for customers with highly predictable routes that allow for batteries designed for a more limited range. A significantly larger frame and smaller battery pack allow for reduced density.\nXos has a bundled all-in-one offering that allows fleets to access all the tools and services they need to go electric with a single point of contact at a fixed monthly expense.\nXos had $3 million in revenue in 2020 and estimates $14 million in 2021. However, it forecasts $5.2 billion in revenue in 2025. At the current stock price of $10.30, its market cap is approximately $2 billion, about the same as its original SPAC transaction.\nLion Electric (NGA)\nLion Electric is a Canadian company founded by Marc Bédard in 2008. Its focus is to be a leader in designing, developing, and manufacturing purpose-built urban electric vehicles; vehicles that are specifically designed as delivery trucks, refuse trucks, bucket trucks, moving trucks, school buses, and shuttle buses. It has over 300 all-electric vehicles on the road today.\nIn November 2020, it announced that it was going public through the SPAC NGA. The transaction had an estimated pro forma enterprise value of $1.5 billion.\nIt plans on seven new truck models and one new school bus, for a total of 15 all-electric vehicles, representing a full line-up from class 5 to class 8 electric trucks and a full line-up of electric school buses. Its vehicles are produced at its existing manufacturing plant, which has the capacity for the production of up to 2,500 vehicles per year. It intends to open a new plant in the U.S. capable of delivering over 20,000 Lion trucks and buses per year by 2022.\nIts all-electric class 6 and class 8 commercial urban trucks combine power, comfort, and modern technology. Custom-built chassis and cabin designed specifically for an all-electric heavy-duty vehicle. The LionC is an all-electric Type C school bus manufactured in North America. The body and chassis were specifically designed to deliver optimal performance. The LionM is an all-electric midi/minibus that meets paratransit and public transportation requirements. Created and designed specifically for the paratransit market, the is spacious and offers unique features that provide enhanced security and accessibility to the end-users.\nLion Electric had $29 million in revenue in 2020 and expects $204 million in 2021. It forecasts revenue to jump to $3.6 billion a few years later in 2024. Its current market cap is approximately $3.6 billion based on its current stock price of $18.33.\nLightning eMotors (GIK)\nLightning eMotors, formerly Lightning Systems, was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Loveland, Colorado. It provides fleet electrification for familiar commercial vehicle platforms by retrofitting them with its electric powertrains. Lightning eMotors produces electric fleet medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including delivery trucks, shuttle buses, passenger vans, ambulances, bucket trucks, chassis-cab models, and city transit buses. It focuses on urban commercial zero-emission vehicles with a full range of class 3 through class 7 battery-electric and fuel-cell electric vehicles.\nLighting eMotors helps commercial fleets achieve their sustainability goals by offering zero-emission battery-electric vans, trucks, and buses based on familiar, proven vehicles from manufacturers such as Ford and GM. It works with customers, to help them identify their unique commercial electric vehicle, charging, and grant support needs.\nThe Lightning products include integrated all-electric powertrains for the Ford Transit 350HD passenger and cargo vans, Ford E-450 shuttle bus and cutaway models, Ford F-59 step/food van, Ford F-550 cargo trucks and buses, Chevrolet 6500XD Low Cab Forward model, and 30-foot, 35-foot, and 40-foot transit buses.\nLightning has 120 vehicles on the road, and 1,500 vehicles already on order from customers. In addition to making vehicles and powertrains, Lightning also provides a full suite of charging solutions for customers.\nThe deal with GIK has an enterprise value of $650 million, although there is also an Earnout of 20.0% of total pro forma shares outstanding to Lightning eMotors shareholders if the stock crosses certain price thresholds.\nAt the current price, of $11.73, GIK has a market cap of approximately $1 billion, a little more than the original transaction valuation. Similar to XL Fleet, Lightning has the risk that retrofitting may only be an interim business opportunity until more EV trucks are produced.\nPublic Chinese EV Companies\nChina will be the biggest EV market opportunity, and EV start-ups may do better there because there isn't as much entrenched competition from domestic auto companies. China is already the largest EV market in the world, with almost a million EVs sold in 2019. Its EV market represents almost half of the global EV sales volume and is much larger than the U.S. market.\nThe Chinese government has ambitions to become a global leader in new energy vehicles. Soon after the coronavirus outbreak subsided within the country, Chinese authorities announced new policies to support the auto and electric vehicle industries.\nThese Chinese companies are traded through American depository shares (ADS) that contain certain risks. There are financial reporting and transparency risks with these companies, and on top of that, the newer companies are being classified as \"emerging growth\" companies that are already exempt from certain transparency requirements set out in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Like the previous EV stock, these stocks have also been very volatile.\nIn addition to legacy auto manufacturers like BYD, there are also three Chinese EV companies that are publicly traded through American depositary shares.\nBYD Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:BYDDY)\nBYD, which means build your dreams, is the automotive subsidiary of the Chinese multinational BYD Co Ltd. It was founded in January 2003, following BYD Company's acquisition of Tsinchuan Automobile Company. The company produces automobiles, buses, electric bicycles, forklifts, rechargeable batteries, and trucks. The current model range of automobiles includes electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and petrol-engined vehicles. Thirteen years ago, on the advice of his famously skeptical lieutenant, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett made a $232 million investment in BYD, a relatively unknown Chinese car company.\nBy parlaying BYD's rechargeable battery technology into a fast-growing carmaking operation, it gained a foothold in the fledgling electric vehicle market, building longer-lasting batteries and cheaper vehicles than American and Japanese manufacturers were managing to do at the time. In BYD, Buffett and Munger believed they had found a company with a shot at one day becoming the largest player in a global automobile market that was inevitably going electric.\nBYD's start to 2021 was strong with 19,871 plug-in electric cars sold in January in China, including hybrid plug-ins. That was a big increase over 2020 but not as much as 2019.\nLI Auto (LI)\nLixiang, formerly known as Chehejia (\"Car and Home\"), was founded in 2015 and went public in the U.S. on July 30th, 2020. It is a Beijing-based electric-vehicle startup with vertically integrated manufacturing. It designs, researches, manufactures, sells, and offers services featuring a few models of electric vehicles.\nThe company's SUVs are hybrids of a sort. They use electric motors (one on the front axle and one on the rear), but those motors are powered by a combination of a 40.5kWh battery packanda 1.2-liter turbocharged engine paired to a 45-liter fuel tank and a 100kW electric generator, which generates power for the battery pack in real-time. The idea is that the car can be driven for about 100 miles on battery power alone, but it has a total range of nearly 500 miles when leveraging the combustion engine generator.\nThe Company's primary product is an SUV under its brand Li ONE. It also sells peripheral products and provides related services, such as charging stalls, vehicle internet connection services, and extended lifetime warranties. Li Auto is looking to sell a variety of SUVs built on its hybrid technology that range from around $21,000 to about $70,000. The company started shipping its first model in late 2019. It's a midsize SUV is well-appointed and has lots of touchscreens and technology. A full-size premium version is planned for release in 2022.\nDeliveries of Li ONEs were 14,464 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a 67.0% quarter-over-quarter increase and setting a new quarterly record. Deliveries for the full year 2020 reached 32,624 vehicles. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $635 million.\nLI auto went public on July 30th, 2020, raising $1.1 billion at an initial price of $15.50 per share but quickly reached almost $24. It is currently valued at approximately $37 billion at a price of approximately $25.72 per share.\nXPeng (XPEV)\nXiaopeng (XPeng) Motors is a Chinese electric vehicle and technology company that designs and manufactures smart cars. It was founded in 2015 and went public on August 27, 2020, using American depository shares, raising about $1 billion. To date, it has raised about $2.6 billion.\nXPeng aims its EVs at technology-savvy middle-class Chinese consumers, with prices ranging from $22,000 to $45,000 after government subsidies. In some ways, it is a Tesla knock-off at a much lower price. XPeng started production of the G3 in November 2018, and as of July 31, 2020, delivered 18,741. It started production of the P7 and began delivery in May 2020, and as of July 31, 2020, it had delivered 1,966 EVs. The P7 has a range of more than 400 miles. It plans to launch a third Smart EV, a sedan, in 2021. The G3 was among the top-three best-selling electric SUVs in China in 2019.\nXPeng is interesting because it has a platform strategy and is moving aggressively into autonomous driving. It uses a platform strategy to expand product offerings by launching one Smart EV model each year to broaden the addressable market. It builds new models on two highly flexible Smart EV platforms, called David and Edward, respectively. The David platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,600 millimeters to 2,800 millimeters, and the Edward platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,800 millimeters to 3,100 millimeters. It also adopted a platform approach for software systems.\nXPeng claims to be developing an autonomous driving capability for its EVs. The P7 is the first production vehicle to feature the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Xavier system-on-a-chip (SoC) autonomous driving platform. The company's Smart Electric Platform Architecture (SEPA) runs on 2 chips - NVIDIA for the XPILOT and Qualcomm's Snapdragon™ 820A for intelligent services and infotainment, including cameras inside and outside, radars, HD-map, and ultrasonic sensors. Like Tesla, it claims it can create sufficiently-autonomous driving without lidar.\nTo enhance brand recognition and allow more people to experience its Smart EVs, it deployed a small number of Smart EVs in a ride-hailing service in Guangzhou on a trial basis, but it has no current plan to scale up a ride-hailing service.\nXpeng sees first-quarter 2021 deliveries rising 450% year-over-year to 12,500 vehicles. Revenues are expected to increase 533% from a year ago. The company didn't provide bottom-line estimates for the quarter, but will likely post another net loss as it ramps up manufacturing, invests in R&D, and builds out a new manufacturing plant set to open in 2022.\nXpeng reported selling 12,964 vehicles in Q4 2020, up 303% from a year ago. It delivered a total of 27,041 vehicles in 2020, up 112%. It makes the P7 sedan, a rival to the made-in-China Tesla Model 3, and the small G3 SUV.\nThe stock opened on August 27, 2020 at a price of $15 and a valuation of $11 billion, but its stock jumped more than 40% shortly after. Its current valuation is about $35 billion at a stock price of approximately $36.13 per share. It had about $300 million in revenue in 2019 with a loss of about $500 million.\nNio (NIO)\nUnlike previous companies, Nio has been a public company for some time. It originally went public in the U.S. back in September of 2018, selling IPO shares at $6.26 and raising $1 billion.\nNio's IPO was far from smooth. After going public at $6.26 per share, it traded down to nearly $1. Then in the middle of the coronavirus outbreak, Nio received a much-needed investment of $1 billion from investors, including state-backed entities.\nNio designs, jointly manufactures, and sells smart and connected premium electric vehicles, attempting to develop next-generation technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving, and artificial intelligence. Joint manufacturing means that it uses a state-owned contract manufacturer to build its cars.\nNio plans to provide customers with comprehensive, convenient, and innovative charging solutions and other user-centric services. It began deliveries of the ES8, a 7-seater high-performance premium electric SUV in China in June 2018, and its variant, the six-seater ES8, in March 2019. Nio officially launched the ES6, a 5-seater high-performance premium electric SUV, in December 2018 and began deliveries in June 2019. It officially launched the EC6, a 5-seater smart premium electric Coupe SUV, in December 2019 with deliveries in 2020.\nNio sold 17,353 EVs in Q4/2020 and 43,728 for the year. It warned a shortage in chips and batteries will force a production slowdown to 7,500 a month in Q2 from 10,000 vehicles a month in February.\nNio currently trades at more than $43 per share, including a big jump recently, for a valuation of approximately $48 billion. It had revenue of $2.3 billion in 2019 for a loss of $3.8 billion.\nSummary\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this should provide exciting new investment opportunities. However, the investment terrain is complex. There are dozens of new start-ups where the public can now invest that were previously exclusively venture capital investment opportunities. Many of these are following different roads to success. There are legacy auto manufacturers that could prosper or get destroyed in this transition. There are some exciting new EV company opportunities in China. And then there is Tesla.\nThis EV roadmap is intended to help investors explore different roads to investment by explaining the basic strategies for these EV companies. These roads can have different opportunities and risks, and the roadmap helps to frame these. Above all, valuation is an overriding risk that is highlighted throughout this article.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":353944117,"gmtCreate":1616458272339,"gmtModify":1704794289749,"author":{"id":"3575934256983383","authorId":"3575934256983383","name":"J355","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf4773397a05bfafd537c815b1b3cd0c","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575934256983383","authorIdStr":"3575934256983383"},"htmlText":"EV anyone?","listText":"EV anyone?","text":"EV anyone?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353944117","repostId":1196402560,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196402560","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616134696,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196402560?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-19 14:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"New Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196402560","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, an","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>It's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.</li>\n <li>Last October, I wrote a popular article providing a roadmap for investing in electric vehicles, but since then, so much has changed: new entrants, new strategies, fluctuating valuations, etc.</li>\n <li>So, I updated and greatly expanded the previous EV investment roadmap.</li>\n <li>This update includes a deeper look at valuations for 23 EV companies with revenue projections, when available.</li>\n <li>It also classifies these EV companies into their primary market categories and summarizes their different strategies.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb96acc615cba9c7842860658c019ab1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\">Photo by Sven Loeffler/iStock via Getty Images\nMy article&nbsp;Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap&nbsp;published five months ago, was popular, and some followers have requested an update. Many new EV companies entered the market, most of them through SPACs. Valuations fluctuated wildly, and there has been a great deal of publicity around these companies.\nThis new updated EV investment roadmap is greatly expanded. In addition to updating the strategies and progress of companies previously discussed, I expanded the number of companies covered. This article also groups EV companies into their primary markets, enabling better comparisons and evaluation of market opportunities. In addition, it includes a comparative valuation chart showing every company's market cap with a comparison to projected revenue, where possible. This takes advantage (good or bad) of looking at the long-term revenue forecasts provided in SPAC mergers that public companies can't make.\nIn addition to the EV manufacturers discussed here, there are also EV investment opportunities in charging station companies, battery manufacturers, and battery materials companies. These were covered in the original roadmap and may also be updated in a later article.\nApproximately 2 million EVs were sold in 2019, and although the number declined along with all auto sales in 2020, it is forecasted to increase in 2021 and reach 8-10 million by 2025. Some forecast that EV sales will be greater than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2030, or even earlier. The automobile market appears to be moving toward a historical transformation, and exceptional investment gains can be made by anticipating new emerging industries and investing in the eventual winners of those new industries. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)are obvious examples. Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to create a new emerging industry.\nThere are also significant risks. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to be released in the next three years, which will drive rapid growth in EV sales. However, the expected sales from these new models, as well as the increasing expectations from Tesla, most likely exceed the total projected market. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the companies covered here won't exist five years from now. It reminds me of the internet bubble of the late 1990s when scores of internet-based companies went public with little or no revenue. Almost all of these failed within three years -- however, a couple, including Amazon, went on to enormous success.\nEVs provide a major new investment opportunity with high risks. To succeed, you need to have a clear EV investment roadmap.\nSo, how can you invest in this new emerging market? The EV landscape is complex and investment opportunities are varied. While Tesla is the unquestioned leader in EVs, some consider it overvalued and unlikely to show exceptional returns to new investors. The current U.S. legacy automakers are committed to introducing many new EVs in the next few years, and they have some entrenched advantages with volume manufacturing capabilities, a dealer infrastructure, and loyal customers. There are exciting new EV start-ups in the U.S. that have come public this year, mostly through Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), and there are several interesting publicly traded Chinese EV manufacturers.\nThis new roadmap for EV investment classifies companies into three primary markets segments:\n<ul>\n <li>TheConsumer Retailsegment includes EVs sold to consumers individually, such as SUVs, pickup trucks, sedans, etc.</li>\n <li>TheCommercial Deliverysegment includes local delivery EV vans and trucks sold to fleets.</li>\n <li>TheMedium- and Long-Haul Truckingsegment includes heavier Class 4 - Class 8 trucks, as well as special industrial vehicles.</li>\n</ul>\nIn addition, it categorizesLegacy ManufacturersandChinese EV Companies. This enables investors to evaluate investment opportunities by considering unique opportunities within each market segment.\nThere is an enormous amount of investment optimism for EVs, and retail investors have been aggressively buying into EV stocks with seemingly no regard for valuation. Then there is the additional challenge of valuing companies with no revenue, especially those coming public through SPACs. So, valuation is an important investment consideration.\nSo let's start by looking at an overview of comparative EV valuations.\nEV Investment Valuation Overview\nThe following chart summarizes valuations for 23 EV companies, including several legacy companies. For SPACs, market cap estimates are computed using the pro forma number of shares at closing, otherwise using the valuation of the SPAC prior to closing drastically underestimates the valuation, which may be misleading to novice investors. Price/Sales ratios (market cap divided by revenue) are used to compare valuations. As a benchmark, current P/S ratios vary. For example, auto and truck companies have a ratio of 2.7X. Software companies have the highest ratios of over 10X.\nIn the chart, companies that currently have revenue show current P/S ratios. Where projections are available, projected P/S ratios are computed. A note of caution, however. Many of the EV companies came public through SPACs and published their projections (which public companies cannot do), and many of these are likely to prove unrealistic.\nAll of the longer-term revenue projections come from the company (C) forecasts with a SPAC. Some of these may turn out to be accurate, not many are most likely unrealistic. Some, like Lucid, Faraday, and Arrival forecast hitting more than $10 billion in revenue in a few years, when it took Tesla more than 10. Things are different now and they might achieve these, but they could also find that it will take longer to complete development, ramp up production, and create enough customer demand. Many companies may also find that there will be significant capital requirements to achieve this type of growth, and shareholders will be diluted.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc360dfa7de01516b7f68d5962cf3017\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"883\">\nTesla, the \"gold standard\" in EVs, has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, which many people believe is overvalued. Its market cap is approximately 20X 2020 revenue and 10X estimated 2022 revenue.\nTesla (TSLA)\nIn the U.S., and to a lesser extent in China, Tesla is the dominant EV provider. It has approximately 60% of the U.S. EV market and about 20% of the market in China. I own a Tesla and love it, but an investment in Tesla stock requires getting comfortable with its valuation. Tesla has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, although declining lately, which some consider still overvalued while others see upside potential.\nThe investment opportunity with Tesla is based on the expectation that it will continue to dominate the EV market, or at least maintain significant market share, despite much greater competition from the expected introduction of hundreds of new EV models in the next few years.\nThere is a great deal already published about Tesla, so I'll move on.\nLegacy Automakers\nSome people think that the legacy automakers will simply fade away. Historically, that was the case in some other industries, but it is not going to happen to most automakers. They are not standing still waiting to become obsolete. Most have aggressive strategies to replace ICE vehicles with EVs. GM plans to invest $27 billion and build and launch as many as 30 new EV models by 2025. Ford plans to invest $29 billion in EVs by 2025 and launch as many as 16 EVs in the next two years. Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY)has also committed billions to develop new EVs.\nThe competitive advantage that legacy automakers have in selling their new EVs is their dealer network. Will new EV customers prefer to continue going to their regular auto dealer to buy their new EV?\nAlmost all legacy automakers worldwide are developing and launching EVs including Volkswagen, Peugeot, Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi, Hyundai/Kia. Let's look a little more closely at GM and Ford as the leaders in the U.S.\nGeneral Motors (GM)\nGM has committed to introducing 20 new electric vehicles by 2023, including EVs across Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC, and Buick. It recently announced that it has already sold out the first-year production of its Hummer electric pickup. By mid-decade, it expects to sell a million EVs per year in its two largest markets: North America and China. As a reference point, Tesla reported deliveries of 367,500 vehicles globally in 2019.\nGM has a solid platform strategy for its EVs. It plans on building its EVs using five interchangeable drive units and three different motors from its Ultium Drive System platform. Ultium energy options range from 50 to 200 kWh, which could enable an estimated range of up to 400 miles. Most of its EVs will have 400-volt battery packs and up to 200 kW fast-charging capability while the truck platform will have 800-volt battery packs and 350 kW fast-charging capabilities.\nThe key building blocks of the Ultium battery system are large-scale, high-energy cells. Engineered in partnership with LG Energy Solutions, they use both advanced chemistry and a smart cell design that's optimized for a broad portfolio of EVs. GM engineers and scientists are actively researching and testing new elements in battery chemistry to lower costs and improve charge times. Ultium can contain either vertically- or horizontally-stacked cells to integrate into vehicle design: vertically for trucks, SUVs, and crossovers, or horizontally for cars and performance vehicles. As new chemistry is developed and becomes available, the battery management system could digitally update the modules.\nGM also has other EV opportunities with its BrightDrop commercial EV service and its Cruise subsidiary. BrightDrop will not just sell delivery EVs, it will provide an entire service platform for commercial delivery customers. Its set of electric delivery vehicles starts with the EV600 and includes the BrightDrop EP1, a pod-like electric pallet. SeeGeneral Motors' Aggressive EV/AV Strategies May Payoff Big.\nWith its highest stock price of $61.65, GM's current market cap is approximately $89 billion, increasing primarily because of its progress with EVs. This approximately 3X valuation in 2018, but still only 13% of Tesla.\nFord (F)\nFord is also investing heavily in EVs. It just introduced the Mustang Mach-E, a battery-powered crossover with sports car styling, and plans to introduce an all-electric version of its best-selling F-150 pickup later this year. Also, planned is an electric edition of the full-size Transit van, which has been popular in the commercial delivery market. Ford has confirmed plans to build a luxury Lincoln crossover on a battery-powered platform provided by Rivian. The automaker also plans to introduce two new midsize electric crossovers, one each for the Ford and Lincoln brands by 2023.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd8523e15bccc57790940d4218f7b94e\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"1080\">Mustang Mach-E. Source: Ford\nFord's market cap is approximately $51 billion, twice its previous market cap, and also increasing.\nConsumer Retail EV Companies\nThe consumer retail market has some unique characteristics for new EV companies. Sales are made individually, not in fleets. This diversifies the risk upon launch because only a sufficient number of customers need to be attracted to the new EV. A wave of popularity can provide terrific momentum.\nHowever, the lack of a dealer network can be an impediment. Selling EVs directly to consumers instead of through dealers is prohibited in most states. By law, auto manufacturers can't compete with franchised dealers. These are laws that go back many decades to protect dealers. This can be a major impediment for new companies without established independent dealer franchises. So, new AV companies. like Tesla, need to sell their vehicles online. Tesla has successfully done this, but it took a lot of work and time. Lack of a dealer network also creates impediments in service.\nIn addition, over the next 4-5 years, autonomous capabilities will be increasingly important to luxury vehicles. This may prove to be a challenge to start-up EV companies because they can't afford to develop this technology.\nLet's look closer at the alternative consumer retail EV investments.\nLucid Motors (CCIV)\nLucid was founded in 2007 under the name Atieva and originally focused on building electric vehicle batteries and powertrains for other vehicle manufacturers. The company rebranded itself as Lucid Motors in October 2016 and shifted its strategy to develop an all-electric, high-performance, luxury vehicle. Shortly after that, it encountered financial difficulties and struggled to get short-term funding. In 2018 it raised more than $1 billion in investment, primarily from Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund, and gave up a majority of the company.\nLucid Motors reached an agreement to become a publicly-traded company through a merger with the SPAC Churchill Capital IV Corp., in one of the largest deals SPAC EV deals. The combined company, in which Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund will continue to be the largest shareholder, had a transaction equity value of $11.75 billion (for $10/share). At the same time, it closed a PIPE investment priced at $15 a share, giving it an implied pro forma equity value of $24 billion. Rumors about this deal circulated before the transaction was formally announced, making it one of the most anticipated SPAC deals. The hype and speculation drove up the stock price of Churchill Capital IV Corp. from its opening price of $10 a share to almost $60. I believe that some of this may have been driven by novice SPAC investors who didn't realize that the valuation of CCIV didn't include the eventual valuation of Lucid. The share price dropped more than 30% after the details of the deal were announced. It's also likely that Lucid renegotiated the terms of the merger based on the price jump.\nThe company's first product is the Lucid Air, a well-equipped luxury electric vehicle that features 406 miles of projected range and 480 horsepower with a starting price of $77,400, or $69,900 after the U.S. Federal Tax Credit of $7,500. This new Lucid Air model is positioned as a high-performance, ultra-efficient luxury EV sedan in a line of future vehicles that are expected to include Lucid Air Touring, Grand Touring, and Dream Edition versions.\nThe company plans to begin production and deliveries of the Lucid Air in North America in the second half of 2021. Previously the company aimed to begin deliveries earlier in 2021. It intends to sell the car in Europe in 2022, followed by China in 2023. Lucid vehicles will be produced at its new factory in Casa Grande, Arizona. The company plans to expand the factory in phases in the coming years to have the capacity to produce 365,000 units per year at scale. The initial phase of the $700 million factory construction was completed late last year and will have the capacity to produce 30,000 vehicles a year.\nLucid also apparently has a commitment to build an assembly plant in Saudi Arabia, which was rumored to be a condition of the $1 billion investment from the Saudi public fund. The Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund also provided $600 million in bridge financing and invested in the SPAC deal as well. So, while this assembly plant may be expensive and may not be critical, it will most likely need to happen.\nLucid has ambitious plans to achieve $14 billion in revenue in 2025, and its current stock price at $29.17, which gives it a market cap of more than $46 billion, may already reflect those ambitions. Its market cap is roughly the same as Ford.\nFisker (FSR)\nFisker, which had its origins with Fisker Automotive, is an interesting story that ended in bankruptcy. Henrik Fisker originally co-founded Fisker Automotive in 2007. He was responsible for designing many premium cars such as the Aston Martin. Subsequently, Fisker Automotive had to deal with a Tesla lawsuit against Fisker Automotive alleging it stole Tesla's technology, a controversial $528.7 million conditional loan from the Department of Energy, a recall of its battery produced by A123, and the loss of several hundred vehicles in hurricane Sandy. Henrik Fisker resigned in March 2013 because of disagreements over business strategy and in November 2013, Fisker filed its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case.\nHowever, Henrik Fisker retained the Fisker brand and trademarks, and in 2016 he started another electric vehicle company named Fisker Inc. with the Fisker brand and trademarks. In 2019, Fisker shifted from developing a sports car with a solid-state battery to the Ocean SUV featuring a lithium-ion battery, which it later abandoned for a solid-state battery.\nFisker is positioning itself in a unique segment for those who want the most environmentally friendly EV. While this may be an early growth segment for EVs, it's difficult to estimate its eventual competitive advantage and the size of this environmentally-friendly market segment.\nThe Ocean is a crossover made of recycled metal and plastic with an expected base price of $37,499, and an expected lease of less than $400 a month. Fisker's plan is essentially a lease-only business model that lets customers keep a vehicle for years or return it at any time. It aims to source motors, batteries, and other components from technical partnerships with automakers and will outsource production from existing auto plants. Fisker is currently taking reservations at $250 for the Ocean. It also announced an agreement with Foxconn to jointly develop a vehicle pioneering a new market segment to be sold globally under the Fisker brand commencing in Q4 2023. at the end of 2022. Production will start at Magna Steyr's manufacturing facilities in Europe. At the end of February 2021, it had 12,467 cancellable reservations.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/924a617c90fc3276d7bdab8c64ebfdcf\" tg-width=\"744\" tg-height=\"389\">Fisker Ocean. Source: Fisker\nFisker went public using a SPAC (Spartan Energy). The original combination with SPAQ in October 2020 was valued at $2.9 billion with a cash investment of approximately $1 billion. The stock currently trades at approximately $21 per share, after reaching a high of $28.50, from the original price of $10, which is a market cap of $4.6 billion. Fisker projects $3.3 billion in revenue in 2023. It had almost $1 billion in cash at the end of 2020 and expected to use almost half of this in 2021: $250 million on operating expenses and $250 million in capital investments. If the Ocean is delayed into 2023, Fisker risks missing its revenue objective and will potentially need additional cash to complete development and launch.\nFaraday Future (PSAC)\nFaraday Future was originally established in May 2014 by Chinese businessman Jia Yueting. It is headquartered in Los Angeles and has offices in Silicon Valley, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu. Faraday Future also had a turbulent history. In 2016, it struggled financially, and in 2017 some key executives departed over a dispute about financial issues. They later founded Canoo.\nIn December 2018 the company announced layoffs due to a cash crunch and financial troubles. The company's founder Jia Yueting filed for personal bankruptcy in the United States' federal court in Delaware on October 14, 2019. Following Jia's personal bankruptcy, he decided to step down from his role as CEO of Faraday Future in order to assume a new position as the Chief Product and User Officer. He was replaced as CEO by Carsten Breitfeld, the former CEO at rival electric vehicle startup Byton.\nSomehow, Faraday was able to raise $2.3 billion in private funding over 5 rounds from a variety of investors. In early 2018, it received $1.5 billion in funding from an undisclosed investor from Hong Kong.\nFaraday's flagship product offering will be the FF 91, featuring 1,050 HP, 0-60 mph in less than 2.4 seconds, zero gravity seats with the largest 60-degree reclining angles, and a user experience designed to create a mobile, connected, and luxurious living space. The FF 91 is targeted to launch in 2022.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e38bfb3211c72bb73bc26f2ebe296fe\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"854\">FF 91. Source: Faraday Future\nIts strategic partners include one of China's top three OEMs and a critical Chinese city, which the company believes will help establish its presence in the Chinese vehicle market.\nFaraday Future plans several cars based on its Variable Platform Architecture. FF 91 is the first production vehicle and flagship model. Pricing will range between $120,000 and upwards of $200,000, which places it against formidable opponents. Faraday Future is already looking forward to expanding its range with a pair of smaller models named FF 81 and FF 71. The FF 81 is planned to be priced at $75,000 to 95,000 with a 2023 release. The FF 71 is planned to be priced at $45,000 to $65,000 with a planned release of 2024.\nThe Primary Manufacturing Facility for FF 91 is in Hanford, CA with contract manufacturing for future models in Gunsan, South Korea.\nFaraday Future is planning high-Level automation with a Level-3 capable system using a redundant safety architecture based on NVIDIA Xavier System-on-a-chip. It will be capable of highway auto-drive and hardware ready for advanced auto-drive. It is targeting full autonomous valet parking &amp; summon in any parking lot or structure. Eventually, it expects full auto-drive, including full 360˚ sensor coverage for advanced auto-drive &amp; auto-park features.\nIn January 2021, Faraday Future announced that the company would go public through a reverse merger with the special purpose acquisition company Property Solutions Acquisition Corp. (PSAC). The combined company will be valued at $3.4 billion. Faraday Future is expected to set up contract manufacturing operations in China through their partnership with Geely. Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn is also expected to serve as an additional strategic partner.\nFaraday Future projects $10.5 billion in revenue in 2024 and $21.5 billion in 2025. Revenue is expected to start in 2022 with the delivery of 2,400 vehicles for $504 million. Most likely these projections could prove to be optimistic. At a current stock price of approximately $12.80, it has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nLordstown Motors (RIDE)\nLordstown Motors based in Lordstown, Ohio, was originally founded in 2018 by Steve Burns, the former CEO of Workhorse Group. The company licensed technology from Workhorse in return for royalties and a 10% ownership. Lordstown is named after the famous GM Lordstown manufacturing plant, which it acquired in November 2019 in an unusual transaction. GM announced that it was closing the plant and was under a great deal of pressure for that decision. So, GM \"sold\" the plant to a company that was renamed Lordstown for an estimated $20 million that it loaned to the acquiring company. Subsequently, the sale was redefined to be part of a $75 million investment by GM, of which $50 million was an in-kind exchange for the plant.\nLordstown went public through the SPAC DiamondPeak Holdings Corp. in 2020. It currently has more than 400 employees.\nIts first product is the Lordstown Endurance, a full-sized EV pickup truck. Lordstown is positioning Endurance for the pickup fleet market segment. The expected price is $52,000+, and it claimed to have more than 100,000 pre-orders by January 2021. However, a recent research article published by a short seller claimed \"Our research has revealed that Lordstown's order book consists of fake or entirely non-binding orders, from customers that generally do not even have fleets of vehicles.\" Lordstown is disputing that article.\nIt believes the fleet pickup market segment is underserved with no current EV-focused competition. It estimates that the full-sized pick-up truck fleet market is 1.2 million vehicles per year in the U.S., but it's more fragmented than other truck fleets. Pickup \"fleets\" tend to be much smaller and local, so there may not be much of a market distinction for a small company buying several EV pickups from a traditional auto dealer. About half of the total U.S. pickup market is classified as fleet sales, meaning more than one.\nEven though Lordstown is targeting the commercial fleet market, it is a similar product to the Ford EV F-150. So I classify it in the consumer EV category. It is a class 2 vehicle. Lordstown also may enter the SUV market in the longer-term.\nThe Endurance will compete against future models from Rivian and Tesla, as well as Ford and GM in ICE pick-ups and their upcoming EV pick-ups. Ford plans on selling its EV F-150 in mid-2022. Initial production of the Endurance is expected in the second half of 2021, so it may have a short market advantage. Nevertheless, it forecasts selling 65,000 vehicles in 2023 and 107,000 in 2024. These estimates could be a large percentage of the EV pick-up market in those years.\nAt the SPAC merger, the implied valuation for Lordstown was $1.6 billion, including a $500 million PIPE and the $75 million by GM. Lordstown's financial projections appear to be aggressive. It projects to start shipping the Endurance in late 2021 with projected revenue in 2022 of $1.7 billion, increasing to $5.8 billion in 2024. Its stock price at approximately $13.60 values the company at a market cap of approximately $2.2 billion. The value of the company depends on the likelihood of achieving its projections.\nA fleet sales strategy makes sense for Lordstown since it would be too expensive to build a retail sales and service capability. However, it's not clear that this will become a distinct competitive advantage. Some small fleets may still prefer to buy their EV pickups from established local dealers with service capabilities.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nCanoo started as Evelozcity in 2017 and rebranded as Canoo in the spring of 2019. Canoo is a Los Angeles-based company that develops electric vehicles. It has over 350 employees. Canoo has designed a modular electric platform purpose-built to deliver maximum vehicle interior space, which is adaptable to support a wide range of vehicle applications for consumers and businesses. Canoo expects to launch its first consumer model in 2022, simply named the Canoo that will be available by subscription, followed shortly after by a multi-purpose delivery vehicle and a sports vehicle, each built off of the same underlying platform. Canoo went public using a SPAC (Hennessy Capital Acquisition) and now trades as GOEV.\nCanoo's all-electric skateboard-like platform is designed to support both consumer retail and commercial vehicle configurations. The EV leverages Canoo's flat skateboard architecture for a high level of usable interior space. Its commercial vehicle program, expected in 2023, addresses a projected $50B+ last-mile delivery market with an EV platform that maximizes cargo volume.\nHyundai Motor Group said it would jointly develop an electric vehicle platform with the company.\nCanoo's platform strategy is interesting. It could be used as an EV platform for custom fleets of delivery vehicles. It has no AV development, but it claims to be \"AV Ready\" which could be useful for AV companies wanting to build custom AV delivery fleets.\nIts all-electric multi-purpose delivery vehicle is expected to be priced starting at approximately $33,000. It is based on Canoo's proprietary electric platform and will be offered in two initial size variants, with others to follow. Limited availability will begin in 2022, with scaled production and launch planned for 2023. Customers can pre-order the multi-purpose delivery vehicle for a refundable deposit of $100 per vehicle\nIt plans to offer two multi-purpose delivery vehicles: the MPDV1 and the larger MPDV2. The first has a 200-foot cargo volume and a range of 130-200 miles. It offers more capacity than today's ICE delivery vehicles at an affordable price with urban mobility enabled by a space-efficient footprint. The vehicle is also designed to fit within many height-restricted areas like parking garages.\nThe MPDV2 has a cargo volume of 450 feet and a range of 90-190 miles. Its roof and step-in height enable individuals to easily walk-in the vehicle and accommodate a standing position while inside.\nThe original SPAC transaction provided approximately $600 million, with a pro forma equity value of approximately $2.4 billion. Like other SPAC mergers, its stock price has fluctuated. It currently trades at about $15.90 per share for a market cap of approximately $3.7 billion. Canoo projects $2.0 billion in revenue in 2025 from about $500 million in engineering services, $1.2 billion from its consumer vehicle subscriptions, and the remainder from its commercial program. Canoo expects revenue of more than $300 million in 2022 after the launch of its lifestyle consumer vehicle.\nSince its first products are aimed at consumers, as is most of its forecasted 2025 revenue, I categorize it primarily as a consumer EV company. However, I think the design of that Canoo vehicle may not attract enough customers. More importantly, its subscription service way of selling its EV to consumers is risky. I think it has more potential in the commercial market, however, a dual strategy (consumer and commercial) is challenging. I like its skateboard platform design and that could prove to be a competitive advantage.\nRivian\nAlthough not yet public, I include Rivian because it has plans for an IPO as soon as Sept 2021, although it could slip into 2022. There are rumors that the company is targeting a market valuation of approximately $50B. Rivian has already raised more than $8 billion to date from Amazon, Ford, T. Rowe Price, and others.\nRivian has developed and vertically integrated a connected electric platform that can be flexibly applied to a range of applications, including the company's adventure products, as well as B2B products such as the Amazon last-mile delivery vans. The company's initial products, the R1T and R1S, provide a combination of performance, off-road capability, and utility. These vehicles will be produced at Rivian's manufacturing plant in Normal, Ill., with customer deliveries expected to begin in summer 2021. The launch of the R1S three-row electric SUV will follow in August.\nAdditional lower-priced models are being planned. The expected R2 series would include at least two smaller electric vehicles to coincide with the smaller platform, then another platform for R3.\nCommercial Delivery EV Companies\nEV truck companies differ based on the type of truck they are developing. The technology and markets are very different, so I separate them into two categories. The first category includes commercial delivery vehicles.\nCompanies making EV delivery vehicles have some major advantages that could make them good investments. First, delivery vehicles typically travel less than 250 miles during a day, so they can be conveniently recharged overnight. Secondly, they are typically sold in large quantities to fleets. This means that building a retail sales infrastructure is not necessary. It only requires a small salesforce. In addition, maintenance can also be provided at the fleet's operational center, so not as many service centers are required.\nThe disadvantage in this market is that there are a relatively small number of customers that buy in large volumes, so if the EV manufacturer can't get enough large customers, they may not be able to stay in business. GM estimates the combined market opportunity for parcel and food delivery, as well as reverse logistics, in the U.S. will be more than $850 billion by 2025.\nThe commercial market is expected to be a major growth area for EVs. Other start-up automakers like Rivian as well as legacy automakers such as Ford, Daimler, and GM have announced plans to enter the segment. GM recently announced its BrightDrop ecosystem for commercial customers that includes an all-new electric delivery van, the EV600 available by the end of 2021, as well as an integrated autonomous pallet and related services.\nThis group of EV companies focuses primarily on commercial delivery. In general, these are in the light-duty trucks category, although it also includes some medium-duty trucks. This generally includes the following commercial truck classes:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 1: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 0-6,000 pounds or 0-2,722 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 2: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 6,001-10,000 pounds or 2,722-4,536 kilograms.1</li>\n <li>Class 3: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 10,001-14,000 pounds or 4,536-6,350 kilograms.</li>\n</ul>\nIt can also include somewhat larger medium-duty EV delivery trucks:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.</li>\n</ul>\nEV delivery trucks also have an advantage over ICE vehicles because they can have a greater delivery storage space. Smaller buses and transit vehicles are also included in this category.\nLast-mile package delivery is not an immediate-term autonomous vehicle opportunity because it requires a delivery person to be on the truck anyway.\nWorkhorse Group (WKHS)\nWorkhorse has been a public company for ten years. Originally AMP Electric Vehicles, it was established in 2007 as a developmental-stage vehicle electrification company, focusing on conversions. AMP Electric Vehicles went public in 2010 trading on the OTC market under the AMPD symbol. When the economic benefits of conversion became less certain, it pivoted away from passenger vehicles and began to focus on electrifying commercial vehicles. AMP acquired the Workhorse brand and the Workhorse custom chassis assembly plant in Union City. In March of 2013, AMP formally changed its name to Workhorse Group Incorporated.\nThe Company designs and builds a last-mile delivery electric vehicle. The C-Series EVs cover the larger size of commercial delivery vehicles in Classes 3-5. As part of its solutions, it also develops cloud-based, real-time telematics performance monitoring systems. It sells its vehicles to fleet customers directly and through its primary distributor, Ryder Systems. It is currently focused on bringing the C-Series electric delivery truck to market and fulfilling the existing backlog of orders.\nThe C-Series looks like a viable EV replacement for the 350,000 last-mile delivery vehicles sold in the U.S. annually. It recently announced an increased driving range from 100 miles to 160, which should open more market opportunities. It has a viable short-term go-to-market strategy selling fleets to delivery companies. It currently has test vehicles with UPS, DHL, FedEx, Amazon, and Walmart.\nWorkhorse recently lost out on the United States Postal Services Next Generation Delivery Vehicle project, however, it is in the process of challenging this decision. Additionally, its investment in Lordstown also provides an indirect investment opportunity. On November 7, 2019, the Company entered a transaction with Lordstown Motors to grant LMC a perpetual and worldwide license to certain intellectual property relating to its W-15 electric pickup truck platform and related technology in exchange for royalties, equity interest (approximately 10%) in LMC, and other considerations. This was a $320 million asset for Workhorse at the end of 2020.\nWorkhorse received a significant increase in orders in Q4/2020 but built just seven trucks in the fourth quarter due to production systems and supply chain issues. Workhorse plans to continue to take it slow, striving to build three of its composite-body battery-electric trucks a day in March with a plan to reach 10 trucks a day by the end of June. This makes its original 2021 goal of producing 1,800 trucks unlikely. It partnered with Hitachi and Hitachi Capital America (\"HCA\") to improve the Company's manufacturing, operational, and supply chain capabilities as well as to develop a national dealer network to support Workhorse's sales with vehicle financing options for both dealers and customers.\nWorkhorse has a market cap of approximately $1.9 billion. While Workhorse had ongoing revenue, unlike many other new EV companies, its revenue is still insignificant. It had a revenue of $1.4 million in 2020 and $377,000 in 2019. It has a backlog of over 8,000 vehicles but doesn't expect to be able to build many of those in 2021. It raised $270 million in capital over several financings, providing the Company with additional capital to build its backlog. It had cash of $215 million as of March 1, 2021. Because Workhorse is a traditional public company, it hasn't made long-term financial projections like SPAC-based companies.\nElectric Last Mile (FIII)\nElectric Last Mile, based in Troy Michigan, was founded by Jason Luo, former CEO of Ford China before it was acquired by China's Ningbo Joyson Electronic for $920 million in 2016, including James Taylor, former CEO of GM's Hummer brand and former CEO of electric car maker Karma Automotive. Taylor serves as the company's top executive with Luo as the company's chairman.\nThe company plans to launch a small electric delivery van (class 1-2), called the UD-1, in the third quarter of 2021, and then introduce an Urban Utility vehicle (Class 2-3) in 2022. These are expected to compete with Workhorse, Rivian, Canoo, as well as the Ford eTransit and the GMC BV1, none of which is expected to be a Class 1 vehicle.\nThe company says it has 30,000 preorders for its van, representing more than $1 billion in sales. Electric Last Miles vehicles will be based on Sokon's commercial van made in China through a joint venture with Dongfeng Automobile Co Ltd. in order to accelerate development time.\nElectric Last Mile (ELM) is expected to manufacture the vans in a former General Motors Co. Hummer plant in Mishawaka, Ind., that the company is acquiring from China's Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co. Ltd. The plant has the capacity to produce 100,000 vehicles annually with plans to build approximately 4,000 UD-1 vans by the end of 2021. The UD-1 has a starting price of $32,500 and a range of 150 miles. The battery for the vehicle is expected to be supplied by the Chinese battery company CATL.\nELM believes that it has a competitive advantage because its first vehicle, the ELM Urban Delivery, is scheduled to be available in 2021. It is based on a proven, existing platform developed and sold by Sokon Group in the Asian market, where there are 30,000 of these electric delivery vehicles driving 1.5 million miles every day. At the close of the business combination, ELM will be an independent, U.S. company producing electric vehicles in the U.S. with Sokon Group providing access to its know-how, parts supply, and field and service data.\nELM expects that the Urban Delivery vehicle will be the first electric delivery vehicle coming to market in the class 1 category (GVW of 6,000 lbs or less) in the U.S. It will also have 35% more carrying volume compared to similar ICE delivery vehicles, a critical part of the value proposition. It also anticipates that its price and greater carrying volume will allow it to take market share from the class 2 category of vehicles as well.\nIts crossover product portfolio strategy targets commercial delivery vehicles spanning from class 1 to class 3, which represents over 80% of the last mile market.\nELM anticipates $122 million in revenue in 2021, rapidly increasing to $3 billion in 2025. The price of FIII stock increased immediately following its announcement with Electric Last Mile, rising more than 40% to $14.50, but now it has dropped closer to the original deal price to $10.25 for a market cap of approximately $1.5 billion.\nGreenPower Motor Company (GP)\nGreenPower Motor Company Inc. is a Canadian battery-electric bus manufacturer with multiple models of high- and low-floor vehicles, including transit buses, school buses, and shuttles. GreenPower offers commercial vehicles for delivery, public transit, schools, vanpooling, micro-transit, shuttles, and is developing a capability of autonomous operation. It went public on August 28, 2020.\nIn 2014 GreenPower launched its first purpose-built, battery-electric bus, the EV350, 40-foot transit bus. GreenPower received its first order in 2017 for ten EV350s from the City of Porterville, California.\nGreenPower's electric buses are purpose-built and designed to be all-electric, allowing it to put the battery and propulsion system in optimized locations that provide weight and structural advantages. Its primary EV is the EV Star with more than 120 vehicles delivered. It comes in several variations:\n<ul>\n <li>EV Star - Up to 19 passengers</li>\n <li>EV Star Plus - Up to 24 passengers</li>\n <li>EV Star ADA - Passenger and curbside lift for ADA</li>\n <li>EV Star Cargo - 5,000 pounds of load</li>\n <li>EV Star Cargo Plus - 570 cubic feet of cargo space.</li>\n</ul>\nIts EV school bus seats up to 90 students and has a range of up to 150 miles.\nGreenPower had revenue of $13.5 million in 2020 It has about $21 million in cash. It's an interesting alternative since it is already shipping EVs, has revenue, and also has a lower market cap of less than $1 billion. Since it did a traditional IPO, it hasn't published longer-term financial forecasts.\nArrival (CIIC)\nArrival was founded in 2015 in London to make a variety of commercial electric vehicles. It has approximately 1,200 employees across 11 cities in 8 countries. In November 2020, Arrival and the SPAC CIIG entered into a business combination agreement with an implied valuation of $5.39 billion.\nArrival plans on releasing four commercial EVs over the next few years.\n<ul>\n <li>Q4/2021: An electric bus for 8-125 passengers and a range of 240-400km</li>\n <li>Q3/2022: An electric delivery van with a payload of 975-2,000kg and a range of 150-340km</li>\n <li>2022: A larger electric van with a payload of 4,000 kg and a range of 190-400km</li>\n <li>2023: a small vehicle platform with a range of 100-300km.</li>\n</ul>\nThis mix provides a nice diversified portfolio of EVs. Arrival claims to have received orders from UPS for 10,000 vans. It plans a unique flexible manufacturing approach using micro-factories with each projected to manufacture 10,000 vans per year. All of its vehicles use a modular skateboard electric platform.\nArrival ambitiously projects $14.1 billion in revenue in 2024. Half of that revenue is expected from delivery vans, 22% from buses, and the rest from the large van and its small vehicle platform. With CIIC's stock price at $24.80 per share, Arrival's current market cap is relatively high at approximately $15.0 billion. Justifying its market cap depends on its ability to release, sell, and produce its four commercial EVs.\nProterra (ACTC)\nProterra is a commercial electric vehicle company with over a decade of production experience. The Company has designed an end-to-end, flexible technology platform that claims to deliver higher performance and a low total cost of ownership to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end customers.\nProterra, Inc., was originally founded in Golden, Colorado, by Dale Hill in 2004. Later the company wanted to take the lead in creating zero-emission, U.S.-based transit buses. In 2010 it moved its manufacturing plant from Golden, Colorado to Greenville, South Carolina. In 2015, Proterra was awarded a $3 million grant from the California Energy Commission to fund the design, development, and construction of the company's battery-electric transit bus manufacturing line in the City of Industry, California. It moved its headquarters from Greenville, South Carolina, to Burlingame, California, in October 2015. Proterra raised more than $600 million in funding.\nIt is going public through the SPAC ArcLight (ACTC) with a pro forma valuation of $1.6 billion. Upon completion of the transaction, Proterra expects to have up to $825 million in cash to fund growth initiatives, including R&amp;D and the expansion of its next-generation battery program.\nProterra has three complementary businesses:\n<ul>\n <li>Proterra Powered: Delivering battery systems and electrification solutions to commercial vehicle manufacturers</li>\n <li>Proterra Transit:Providing an electric transit bus OEMs</li>\n <li>Proterra Energy:Offering turnkey charging and energy management solutions.</li>\n</ul>\nThe company's battery systems have been proven in more than 16 million service miles driven by its fleet of transit vehicles and validated through partnerships with commercial vehicle OEMs. Proterra has produced and delivered more than 300 megawatt-hours of battery systems, more than 550 heavy-duty electric transit buses, and installed 54 megawatts of charging systems.\nProterra expected $193 million of revenue in 2020, with an estimated $750 million in existing orders and backlog. It projects $2.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with about 1/3 coming from its Transit business, and 2/3 From Powered &amp; Energy. At ACTC's current stock price of $17.85, Proterra has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nRivian\nRivian (see earlier description in consumer retail) will also compete in the commercial delivery market. It has been working with Amazon (a major investor) to build large electric delivery vans for Prime. Developed specifically for Amazon, a small fleet of Prime vans is on the road now, testing deliveries to customers and gathering feedback. In late fall, it could grow to a large fleet as Rivian ramps up the volume.\nThe EV range of 150 miles is tailored to Amazon's use cycle to optimize the size, weight, and cost of the commercial vehicle. Rivian has three sizes of batteries, but Amazon is starting with just one of them.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nSee the previous summary under consumer retail EV.\nMedium and Long-Haul Trucking EV Companies\nCompanies developing medium- and long-haul EV trucks face a more difficult challenge with battery range. These trucks haul much more weight than commercial delivery vehicles and because they are designed for long distances, they can't stop every 200-300 miles for recharging.\nFor this reason, many of these companies are using unique hybrid technologies for their trucks. The EV trucks in this category are primarily heavy-duty but also include some medium-duty trucks and specialty vehicles. A couple of the companies focus on retrofitting trucks to be electric.\nMedium-Duty Trucks\nThe medium-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 4, 5, and 6:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 6: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 19,501-26,000 pounds or 8,846-11,793 kilograms.1</li>\n</ul>\nHeavy-Duty Trucks\nThe heavy-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 7 and 8:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 7: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 26,001 to 33,000 pounds or 11,794-14,969 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 8: This class of trucks has a GVWR of greater than 33,001 pounds or 14,969 kilograms and includes all tractor-trailers.</li>\n</ul>\nThe Tesla Semi is a battery vehicle planned for a range of 300 or 500 miles and a speed of 60 MPH with 80,000 lbs of cargo. Tesla plans to start shipping the Semi later this year when it expects to have sufficient cell volume to meet its needs with the production of its 4680 battery pack.\nNikola(NASDAQ:NKLA)\nNikola has been a very controversial company. Founded in 2015, it originally had two different strategies. Its primary strategy is to lease fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) Class-8 heavy trucks and provide the refueling infrastructure to corporate customers. Its second strategy was to develop the Badger EV truck using GM technology.\nNikola originally merged with a SPAC to go public, at an enterprise value of approximately $3.3 billion. On June 6th, 2020, its market cap jumped to more than $30 billion, then later it dropped because of problems with its originally planned deal with GM.\nNikola originally expected a deal with General Motors that included the production of the Nikola Badger EV pickup truck. The proposed arrangement was that GM would take a $2 billion equity stake in Nikola and in return would engineer and produce the Badger. In November 2020, GM and Nikola scrapped the original arrangement. Now it appears that GM will supply Nikola with only its Hydrotec hydrogen fuel-cell technology to integrate into the EV manufacturer's commercial class 7 and class 8 zero-emission semi-trucks. So, the Badger is probably dead.\nNikola now sees semi-trucks as the company's \"core business\" and fuel cells as an increasingly important segment of the semi-truck market thanks to their efficiency in weight and consumption. It expects to begin testing by the end of 2021.\nIt has received pre-orders from Anheuser-Busch and a few other companies, but it doesn't expect deliveries until 2023. Hydrogen fueling stations are key to its strategy, both providing a source of revenue and necessary fueling infrastructure for the trucks to operate, but they also cost a lot. In its March 2020 investor deck, Nikola said a single station capable of fueling 210 trucks a day would cost $16.6 million. Its initial planned network of 700 stations would cost roughly $11.6 billion.\nNikola was also accused of misrepresentation, and its executive chairman and founder stepped down.\nAt the time of the SPAC merger, it projected an optimistic forecast of more than $3 billion in revenue by 2024, with a net income of $145 million. Most of that revenue was expected to come from its Badger truck, which is no longer in the plans. Yet its market cap is still almost $6 billion.\nHyliion (HYLN)\nHyliion, founded in 2015 in Austin, went public in October 2020 through the SPAC Tortoise Acquisition Corp. (SHLL). In March 2019, automotive parts manufacturer Dana Inc. made an equity investment into Hyliion, and together they are manufacturing and marketing Class 8 EVs to Dana's customers, including Volvo, Navistar, and Peterbilt.\nHyliion's strategy is unique, and a very different strategy from Nikola. Essentially it generates electricity onboard the truck using compressed natural gas (CNG). This should be a benefit for longer-range trucking. Hyliion's Hypertruck concept involves an all-electric drivetrain utilizing Dana's electric motor, inverter, and axle technologies. The truck's batteries are fueled by onboard tanks of CNG. With some 700 CNG stations already operating nationwide, it believes that there no need to build out expensive superchargers or hydrogen infrastructure.\nKuwait-based logistics company, Agility, has already placed an order for 1,000 Hypertrucks with initial deliveries targeted in 2022. Combined with a fully electric drivetrain and a natural gas-powered onboard generator to recharge the battery, the Hypertruck ERX will provide more than 1,000 miles of range.\nHyliion will eventually compete with Nikola (FCEV) and the Tesla battery-based Semi, but it plans to have a longer range and lower operating costs. Its HyperTruck ERX is expected to be available in 2021. It also has a hybrid-electric truck.\nThe combination with SHLL had an estimated market cap of about $1.5 billion, with approximately $530 million going to the company, including a $325 million fully committed PIPE. At approximately $13.50 per share, its current market cap is approximately $2.2 billion, significantly down from its peak. Hyliion projects $2 billion in revenue in 2024, which it claims is only about 2% of the addressable market.\nXL Fleet (XL)\nXL Fleet is a 10-year old company that went public through the SPAC Pivotal. XL is different because it provides fleet electrification modifications for ICE trucks across a wide range of vehicle classes (class 2-5) and types. It has over 200 of the largest commercial and municipal fleets as customers, with more than 3,200 XL systems deployed and over 130 million miles driven by customers to date. XL's customer base includes FedEx, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Verizon, the City of Boston, Seattle Fire Department, Yale University, and Harvard University.\nXL's business model is essentially retrofitting existing trucks to be hybrids and then later expanding into fully electric truck conversions. It claims to be creating a fully integrated platform for this. It remains to be seen if the retrofitting business will continue to grow or will it diminish when more trucks are designed and manufactured with EV capabilities.\nUnlike some other EV companies that have no revenue yet because they are still developing products, XL is more of a small company doing low-volume retrofits. It had $7.2 million in revenue in 2019, $21 million in 2020, and estimates $76 million in 2021, but it forecasts $1.3 billion in revenue in 2024 in its investor presentation. It plans to do this by expanding its product line from hybrid to plug-in hybrid to fully electric across a broader range of trucks. It claims to have a $220 million sales pipeline for the next 12 months.\nShort-seller, Muddy Waters, claimed after talking to former XL Fleet employees, that it believed the company significantly exaggerated its order backlog, that the return on investment for the company's products was likely negative, and that it would not be able to compete with big car makers on electrification. The company thoroughly refuted these claims.\nThe original enterprise valuation was approximately $1.4 billion at a $10 share price for the merger. Its price jumped by about 35% but has since gone back down to $12.40 for a market cap of about $1.8 billion. Although XL Fleet has revenue and other EV companies don't, this may not be an advantage. It appears to be a small company for many years that has gone public at a high valuation with grand plans. The risks are in its ability to make a jump from $76 million in 2021 to $1.3 billion in 2024, as well as the question about retrofitting being replaced by new EV trucks by then.\nXos (NGAC)\nXos Trucks specializes in the field of manufacturing fully electric commercial vehicles. It features a software platform that is designed to accommodate an extensive variety of medium-duty bodies, wheelbase, and range requirements up to 200 miles. It was founded in 2016 and headquartered in North Hollywood, California. It received $20 million of investment in 2020 and now is going public through a merger with the SPAC ExtGen Acquisition Corporation (NGAC) at an estimated proforma value of $1.965 billion.\nIts focus is on medium- and heavy-duty last mile and return-to-base segments (class 5/6, class 6/7, and class 7/8) commercial fleets and specialty vehicles. Some vehicles are currently in production and in regular on-road operations with key fleet customers, and it claimed 6,000 unit orders in backlog.\nIts MD-platform is for classes 5-6 for pickup and delivery. Its HD X-Platform is an adaptable chassis for highway, vocational, and severe work conditions. Its market is for customers with highly predictable routes that allow for batteries designed for a more limited range. A significantly larger frame and smaller battery pack allow for reduced density.\nXos has a bundled all-in-one offering that allows fleets to access all the tools and services they need to go electric with a single point of contact at a fixed monthly expense.\nXos had $3 million in revenue in 2020 and estimates $14 million in 2021. However, it forecasts $5.2 billion in revenue in 2025. At the current stock price of $10.30, its market cap is approximately $2 billion, about the same as its original SPAC transaction.\nLion Electric (NGA)\nLion Electric is a Canadian company founded by Marc Bédard in 2008. Its focus is to be a leader in designing, developing, and manufacturing purpose-built urban electric vehicles; vehicles that are specifically designed as delivery trucks, refuse trucks, bucket trucks, moving trucks, school buses, and shuttle buses. It has over 300 all-electric vehicles on the road today.\nIn November 2020, it announced that it was going public through the SPAC NGA. The transaction had an estimated pro forma enterprise value of $1.5 billion.\nIt plans on seven new truck models and one new school bus, for a total of 15 all-electric vehicles, representing a full line-up from class 5 to class 8 electric trucks and a full line-up of electric school buses. Its vehicles are produced at its existing manufacturing plant, which has the capacity for the production of up to 2,500 vehicles per year. It intends to open a new plant in the U.S. capable of delivering over 20,000 Lion trucks and buses per year by 2022.\nIts all-electric class 6 and class 8 commercial urban trucks combine power, comfort, and modern technology. Custom-built chassis and cabin designed specifically for an all-electric heavy-duty vehicle. The LionC is an all-electric Type C school bus manufactured in North America. The body and chassis were specifically designed to deliver optimal performance. The LionM is an all-electric midi/minibus that meets paratransit and public transportation requirements. Created and designed specifically for the paratransit market, the is spacious and offers unique features that provide enhanced security and accessibility to the end-users.\nLion Electric had $29 million in revenue in 2020 and expects $204 million in 2021. It forecasts revenue to jump to $3.6 billion a few years later in 2024. Its current market cap is approximately $3.6 billion based on its current stock price of $18.33.\nLightning eMotors (GIK)\nLightning eMotors, formerly Lightning Systems, was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Loveland, Colorado. It provides fleet electrification for familiar commercial vehicle platforms by retrofitting them with its electric powertrains. Lightning eMotors produces electric fleet medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including delivery trucks, shuttle buses, passenger vans, ambulances, bucket trucks, chassis-cab models, and city transit buses. It focuses on urban commercial zero-emission vehicles with a full range of class 3 through class 7 battery-electric and fuel-cell electric vehicles.\nLighting eMotors helps commercial fleets achieve their sustainability goals by offering zero-emission battery-electric vans, trucks, and buses based on familiar, proven vehicles from manufacturers such as Ford and GM. It works with customers, to help them identify their unique commercial electric vehicle, charging, and grant support needs.\nThe Lightning products include integrated all-electric powertrains for the Ford Transit 350HD passenger and cargo vans, Ford E-450 shuttle bus and cutaway models, Ford F-59 step/food van, Ford F-550 cargo trucks and buses, Chevrolet 6500XD Low Cab Forward model, and 30-foot, 35-foot, and 40-foot transit buses.\nLightning has 120 vehicles on the road, and 1,500 vehicles already on order from customers. In addition to making vehicles and powertrains, Lightning also provides a full suite of charging solutions for customers.\nThe deal with GIK has an enterprise value of $650 million, although there is also an Earnout of 20.0% of total pro forma shares outstanding to Lightning eMotors shareholders if the stock crosses certain price thresholds.\nAt the current price, of $11.73, GIK has a market cap of approximately $1 billion, a little more than the original transaction valuation. Similar to XL Fleet, Lightning has the risk that retrofitting may only be an interim business opportunity until more EV trucks are produced.\nPublic Chinese EV Companies\nChina will be the biggest EV market opportunity, and EV start-ups may do better there because there isn't as much entrenched competition from domestic auto companies. China is already the largest EV market in the world, with almost a million EVs sold in 2019. Its EV market represents almost half of the global EV sales volume and is much larger than the U.S. market.\nThe Chinese government has ambitions to become a global leader in new energy vehicles. Soon after the coronavirus outbreak subsided within the country, Chinese authorities announced new policies to support the auto and electric vehicle industries.\nThese Chinese companies are traded through American depository shares (ADS) that contain certain risks. There are financial reporting and transparency risks with these companies, and on top of that, the newer companies are being classified as \"emerging growth\" companies that are already exempt from certain transparency requirements set out in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Like the previous EV stock, these stocks have also been very volatile.\nIn addition to legacy auto manufacturers like BYD, there are also three Chinese EV companies that are publicly traded through American depositary shares.\nBYD Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:BYDDY)\nBYD, which means build your dreams, is the automotive subsidiary of the Chinese multinational BYD Co Ltd. It was founded in January 2003, following BYD Company's acquisition of Tsinchuan Automobile Company. The company produces automobiles, buses, electric bicycles, forklifts, rechargeable batteries, and trucks. The current model range of automobiles includes electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and petrol-engined vehicles. Thirteen years ago, on the advice of his famously skeptical lieutenant, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett made a $232 million investment in BYD, a relatively unknown Chinese car company.\nBy parlaying BYD's rechargeable battery technology into a fast-growing carmaking operation, it gained a foothold in the fledgling electric vehicle market, building longer-lasting batteries and cheaper vehicles than American and Japanese manufacturers were managing to do at the time. In BYD, Buffett and Munger believed they had found a company with a shot at one day becoming the largest player in a global automobile market that was inevitably going electric.\nBYD's start to 2021 was strong with 19,871 plug-in electric cars sold in January in China, including hybrid plug-ins. That was a big increase over 2020 but not as much as 2019.\nLI Auto (LI)\nLixiang, formerly known as Chehejia (\"Car and Home\"), was founded in 2015 and went public in the U.S. on July 30th, 2020. It is a Beijing-based electric-vehicle startup with vertically integrated manufacturing. It designs, researches, manufactures, sells, and offers services featuring a few models of electric vehicles.\nThe company's SUVs are hybrids of a sort. They use electric motors (one on the front axle and one on the rear), but those motors are powered by a combination of a 40.5kWh battery packanda 1.2-liter turbocharged engine paired to a 45-liter fuel tank and a 100kW electric generator, which generates power for the battery pack in real-time. The idea is that the car can be driven for about 100 miles on battery power alone, but it has a total range of nearly 500 miles when leveraging the combustion engine generator.\nThe Company's primary product is an SUV under its brand Li ONE. It also sells peripheral products and provides related services, such as charging stalls, vehicle internet connection services, and extended lifetime warranties. Li Auto is looking to sell a variety of SUVs built on its hybrid technology that range from around $21,000 to about $70,000. The company started shipping its first model in late 2019. It's a midsize SUV is well-appointed and has lots of touchscreens and technology. A full-size premium version is planned for release in 2022.\nDeliveries of Li ONEs were 14,464 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a 67.0% quarter-over-quarter increase and setting a new quarterly record. Deliveries for the full year 2020 reached 32,624 vehicles. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $635 million.\nLI auto went public on July 30th, 2020, raising $1.1 billion at an initial price of $15.50 per share but quickly reached almost $24. It is currently valued at approximately $37 billion at a price of approximately $25.72 per share.\nXPeng (XPEV)\nXiaopeng (XPeng) Motors is a Chinese electric vehicle and technology company that designs and manufactures smart cars. It was founded in 2015 and went public on August 27, 2020, using American depository shares, raising about $1 billion. To date, it has raised about $2.6 billion.\nXPeng aims its EVs at technology-savvy middle-class Chinese consumers, with prices ranging from $22,000 to $45,000 after government subsidies. In some ways, it is a Tesla knock-off at a much lower price. XPeng started production of the G3 in November 2018, and as of July 31, 2020, delivered 18,741. It started production of the P7 and began delivery in May 2020, and as of July 31, 2020, it had delivered 1,966 EVs. The P7 has a range of more than 400 miles. It plans to launch a third Smart EV, a sedan, in 2021. The G3 was among the top-three best-selling electric SUVs in China in 2019.\nXPeng is interesting because it has a platform strategy and is moving aggressively into autonomous driving. It uses a platform strategy to expand product offerings by launching one Smart EV model each year to broaden the addressable market. It builds new models on two highly flexible Smart EV platforms, called David and Edward, respectively. The David platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,600 millimeters to 2,800 millimeters, and the Edward platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,800 millimeters to 3,100 millimeters. It also adopted a platform approach for software systems.\nXPeng claims to be developing an autonomous driving capability for its EVs. The P7 is the first production vehicle to feature the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Xavier system-on-a-chip (SoC) autonomous driving platform. The company's Smart Electric Platform Architecture (SEPA) runs on 2 chips - NVIDIA for the XPILOT and Qualcomm's Snapdragon™ 820A for intelligent services and infotainment, including cameras inside and outside, radars, HD-map, and ultrasonic sensors. Like Tesla, it claims it can create sufficiently-autonomous driving without lidar.\nTo enhance brand recognition and allow more people to experience its Smart EVs, it deployed a small number of Smart EVs in a ride-hailing service in Guangzhou on a trial basis, but it has no current plan to scale up a ride-hailing service.\nXpeng sees first-quarter 2021 deliveries rising 450% year-over-year to 12,500 vehicles. Revenues are expected to increase 533% from a year ago. The company didn't provide bottom-line estimates for the quarter, but will likely post another net loss as it ramps up manufacturing, invests in R&amp;D, and builds out a new manufacturing plant set to open in 2022.\nXpeng reported selling 12,964 vehicles in Q4 2020, up 303% from a year ago. It delivered a total of 27,041 vehicles in 2020, up 112%. It makes the P7 sedan, a rival to the made-in-China Tesla Model 3, and the small G3 SUV.\nThe stock opened on August 27, 2020 at a price of $15 and a valuation of $11 billion, but its stock jumped more than 40% shortly after. Its current valuation is about $35 billion at a stock price of approximately $36.13 per share. It had about $300 million in revenue in 2019 with a loss of about $500 million.\nNio (NIO)\nUnlike previous companies, Nio has been a public company for some time. It originally went public in the U.S. back in September of 2018, selling IPO shares at $6.26 and raising $1 billion.\nNio's IPO was far from smooth. After going public at $6.26 per share, it traded down to nearly $1. Then in the middle of the coronavirus outbreak, Nio received a much-needed investment of $1 billion from investors, including state-backed entities.\nNio designs, jointly manufactures, and sells smart and connected premium electric vehicles, attempting to develop next-generation technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving, and artificial intelligence. Joint manufacturing means that it uses a state-owned contract manufacturer to build its cars.\nNio plans to provide customers with comprehensive, convenient, and innovative charging solutions and other user-centric services. It began deliveries of the ES8, a 7-seater high-performance premium electric SUV in China in June 2018, and its variant, the six-seater ES8, in March 2019. Nio officially launched the ES6, a 5-seater high-performance premium electric SUV, in December 2018 and began deliveries in June 2019. It officially launched the EC6, a 5-seater smart premium electric Coupe SUV, in December 2019 with deliveries in 2020.\nNio sold 17,353 EVs in Q4/2020 and 43,728 for the year. It warned a shortage in chips and batteries will force a production slowdown to 7,500 a month in Q2 from 10,000 vehicles a month in February.\nNio currently trades at more than $43 per share, including a big jump recently, for a valuation of approximately $48 billion. It had revenue of $2.3 billion in 2019 for a loss of $3.8 billion.\nSummary\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this should provide exciting new investment opportunities. However, the investment terrain is complex. There are dozens of new start-ups where the public can now invest that were previously exclusively venture capital investment opportunities. Many of these are following different roads to success. There are legacy auto manufacturers that could prosper or get destroyed in this transition. There are some exciting new EV company opportunities in China. And then there is Tesla.\nThis EV roadmap is intended to help investors explore different roads to investment by explaining the basic strategies for these EV companies. These roads can have different opportunities and risks, and the roadmap helps to frame these. Above all, valuation is an overriding risk that is highlighted throughout this article.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>New Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNew Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-19 14:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.\nLast October, I wrote a popular article providing...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车","01211":"比亚迪股份","NKLA":"Nikola Corporation","LI":"理想汽车","GP":"GreenPower Motor Company Inc.","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","GOEV":"Canoo Inc.","WKHS":"Workhorse Group, Inc.","F":"福特汽车","002594":"比亚迪","TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来","FSR":"菲斯克","HYLN":"Hyliion Holdings Corp."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1196402560","content_text":"Summary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.\nLast October, I wrote a popular article providing a roadmap for investing in electric vehicles, but since then, so much has changed: new entrants, new strategies, fluctuating valuations, etc.\nSo, I updated and greatly expanded the previous EV investment roadmap.\nThis update includes a deeper look at valuations for 23 EV companies with revenue projections, when available.\nIt also classifies these EV companies into their primary market categories and summarizes their different strategies.\n\nPhoto by Sven Loeffler/iStock via Getty Images\nMy article Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap published five months ago, was popular, and some followers have requested an update. Many new EV companies entered the market, most of them through SPACs. Valuations fluctuated wildly, and there has been a great deal of publicity around these companies.\nThis new updated EV investment roadmap is greatly expanded. In addition to updating the strategies and progress of companies previously discussed, I expanded the number of companies covered. This article also groups EV companies into their primary markets, enabling better comparisons and evaluation of market opportunities. In addition, it includes a comparative valuation chart showing every company's market cap with a comparison to projected revenue, where possible. This takes advantage (good or bad) of looking at the long-term revenue forecasts provided in SPAC mergers that public companies can't make.\nIn addition to the EV manufacturers discussed here, there are also EV investment opportunities in charging station companies, battery manufacturers, and battery materials companies. These were covered in the original roadmap and may also be updated in a later article.\nApproximately 2 million EVs were sold in 2019, and although the number declined along with all auto sales in 2020, it is forecasted to increase in 2021 and reach 8-10 million by 2025. Some forecast that EV sales will be greater than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2030, or even earlier. The automobile market appears to be moving toward a historical transformation, and exceptional investment gains can be made by anticipating new emerging industries and investing in the eventual winners of those new industries. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)are obvious examples. Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to create a new emerging industry.\nThere are also significant risks. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to be released in the next three years, which will drive rapid growth in EV sales. However, the expected sales from these new models, as well as the increasing expectations from Tesla, most likely exceed the total projected market. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the companies covered here won't exist five years from now. It reminds me of the internet bubble of the late 1990s when scores of internet-based companies went public with little or no revenue. Almost all of these failed within three years -- however, a couple, including Amazon, went on to enormous success.\nEVs provide a major new investment opportunity with high risks. To succeed, you need to have a clear EV investment roadmap.\nSo, how can you invest in this new emerging market? The EV landscape is complex and investment opportunities are varied. While Tesla is the unquestioned leader in EVs, some consider it overvalued and unlikely to show exceptional returns to new investors. The current U.S. legacy automakers are committed to introducing many new EVs in the next few years, and they have some entrenched advantages with volume manufacturing capabilities, a dealer infrastructure, and loyal customers. There are exciting new EV start-ups in the U.S. that have come public this year, mostly through Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), and there are several interesting publicly traded Chinese EV manufacturers.\nThis new roadmap for EV investment classifies companies into three primary markets segments:\n\nTheConsumer Retailsegment includes EVs sold to consumers individually, such as SUVs, pickup trucks, sedans, etc.\nTheCommercial Deliverysegment includes local delivery EV vans and trucks sold to fleets.\nTheMedium- and Long-Haul Truckingsegment includes heavier Class 4 - Class 8 trucks, as well as special industrial vehicles.\n\nIn addition, it categorizesLegacy ManufacturersandChinese EV Companies. This enables investors to evaluate investment opportunities by considering unique opportunities within each market segment.\nThere is an enormous amount of investment optimism for EVs, and retail investors have been aggressively buying into EV stocks with seemingly no regard for valuation. Then there is the additional challenge of valuing companies with no revenue, especially those coming public through SPACs. So, valuation is an important investment consideration.\nSo let's start by looking at an overview of comparative EV valuations.\nEV Investment Valuation Overview\nThe following chart summarizes valuations for 23 EV companies, including several legacy companies. For SPACs, market cap estimates are computed using the pro forma number of shares at closing, otherwise using the valuation of the SPAC prior to closing drastically underestimates the valuation, which may be misleading to novice investors. Price/Sales ratios (market cap divided by revenue) are used to compare valuations. As a benchmark, current P/S ratios vary. For example, auto and truck companies have a ratio of 2.7X. Software companies have the highest ratios of over 10X.\nIn the chart, companies that currently have revenue show current P/S ratios. Where projections are available, projected P/S ratios are computed. A note of caution, however. Many of the EV companies came public through SPACs and published their projections (which public companies cannot do), and many of these are likely to prove unrealistic.\nAll of the longer-term revenue projections come from the company (C) forecasts with a SPAC. Some of these may turn out to be accurate, not many are most likely unrealistic. Some, like Lucid, Faraday, and Arrival forecast hitting more than $10 billion in revenue in a few years, when it took Tesla more than 10. Things are different now and they might achieve these, but they could also find that it will take longer to complete development, ramp up production, and create enough customer demand. Many companies may also find that there will be significant capital requirements to achieve this type of growth, and shareholders will be diluted.\n\nTesla, the \"gold standard\" in EVs, has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, which many people believe is overvalued. Its market cap is approximately 20X 2020 revenue and 10X estimated 2022 revenue.\nTesla (TSLA)\nIn the U.S., and to a lesser extent in China, Tesla is the dominant EV provider. It has approximately 60% of the U.S. EV market and about 20% of the market in China. I own a Tesla and love it, but an investment in Tesla stock requires getting comfortable with its valuation. Tesla has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, although declining lately, which some consider still overvalued while others see upside potential.\nThe investment opportunity with Tesla is based on the expectation that it will continue to dominate the EV market, or at least maintain significant market share, despite much greater competition from the expected introduction of hundreds of new EV models in the next few years.\nThere is a great deal already published about Tesla, so I'll move on.\nLegacy Automakers\nSome people think that the legacy automakers will simply fade away. Historically, that was the case in some other industries, but it is not going to happen to most automakers. They are not standing still waiting to become obsolete. Most have aggressive strategies to replace ICE vehicles with EVs. GM plans to invest $27 billion and build and launch as many as 30 new EV models by 2025. Ford plans to invest $29 billion in EVs by 2025 and launch as many as 16 EVs in the next two years. Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY)has also committed billions to develop new EVs.\nThe competitive advantage that legacy automakers have in selling their new EVs is their dealer network. Will new EV customers prefer to continue going to their regular auto dealer to buy their new EV?\nAlmost all legacy automakers worldwide are developing and launching EVs including Volkswagen, Peugeot, Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi, Hyundai/Kia. Let's look a little more closely at GM and Ford as the leaders in the U.S.\nGeneral Motors (GM)\nGM has committed to introducing 20 new electric vehicles by 2023, including EVs across Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC, and Buick. It recently announced that it has already sold out the first-year production of its Hummer electric pickup. By mid-decade, it expects to sell a million EVs per year in its two largest markets: North America and China. As a reference point, Tesla reported deliveries of 367,500 vehicles globally in 2019.\nGM has a solid platform strategy for its EVs. It plans on building its EVs using five interchangeable drive units and three different motors from its Ultium Drive System platform. Ultium energy options range from 50 to 200 kWh, which could enable an estimated range of up to 400 miles. Most of its EVs will have 400-volt battery packs and up to 200 kW fast-charging capability while the truck platform will have 800-volt battery packs and 350 kW fast-charging capabilities.\nThe key building blocks of the Ultium battery system are large-scale, high-energy cells. Engineered in partnership with LG Energy Solutions, they use both advanced chemistry and a smart cell design that's optimized for a broad portfolio of EVs. GM engineers and scientists are actively researching and testing new elements in battery chemistry to lower costs and improve charge times. Ultium can contain either vertically- or horizontally-stacked cells to integrate into vehicle design: vertically for trucks, SUVs, and crossovers, or horizontally for cars and performance vehicles. As new chemistry is developed and becomes available, the battery management system could digitally update the modules.\nGM also has other EV opportunities with its BrightDrop commercial EV service and its Cruise subsidiary. BrightDrop will not just sell delivery EVs, it will provide an entire service platform for commercial delivery customers. Its set of electric delivery vehicles starts with the EV600 and includes the BrightDrop EP1, a pod-like electric pallet. SeeGeneral Motors' Aggressive EV/AV Strategies May Payoff Big.\nWith its highest stock price of $61.65, GM's current market cap is approximately $89 billion, increasing primarily because of its progress with EVs. This approximately 3X valuation in 2018, but still only 13% of Tesla.\nFord (F)\nFord is also investing heavily in EVs. It just introduced the Mustang Mach-E, a battery-powered crossover with sports car styling, and plans to introduce an all-electric version of its best-selling F-150 pickup later this year. Also, planned is an electric edition of the full-size Transit van, which has been popular in the commercial delivery market. Ford has confirmed plans to build a luxury Lincoln crossover on a battery-powered platform provided by Rivian. The automaker also plans to introduce two new midsize electric crossovers, one each for the Ford and Lincoln brands by 2023.\nMustang Mach-E. Source: Ford\nFord's market cap is approximately $51 billion, twice its previous market cap, and also increasing.\nConsumer Retail EV Companies\nThe consumer retail market has some unique characteristics for new EV companies. Sales are made individually, not in fleets. This diversifies the risk upon launch because only a sufficient number of customers need to be attracted to the new EV. A wave of popularity can provide terrific momentum.\nHowever, the lack of a dealer network can be an impediment. Selling EVs directly to consumers instead of through dealers is prohibited in most states. By law, auto manufacturers can't compete with franchised dealers. These are laws that go back many decades to protect dealers. This can be a major impediment for new companies without established independent dealer franchises. So, new AV companies. like Tesla, need to sell their vehicles online. Tesla has successfully done this, but it took a lot of work and time. Lack of a dealer network also creates impediments in service.\nIn addition, over the next 4-5 years, autonomous capabilities will be increasingly important to luxury vehicles. This may prove to be a challenge to start-up EV companies because they can't afford to develop this technology.\nLet's look closer at the alternative consumer retail EV investments.\nLucid Motors (CCIV)\nLucid was founded in 2007 under the name Atieva and originally focused on building electric vehicle batteries and powertrains for other vehicle manufacturers. The company rebranded itself as Lucid Motors in October 2016 and shifted its strategy to develop an all-electric, high-performance, luxury vehicle. Shortly after that, it encountered financial difficulties and struggled to get short-term funding. In 2018 it raised more than $1 billion in investment, primarily from Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund, and gave up a majority of the company.\nLucid Motors reached an agreement to become a publicly-traded company through a merger with the SPAC Churchill Capital IV Corp., in one of the largest deals SPAC EV deals. The combined company, in which Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund will continue to be the largest shareholder, had a transaction equity value of $11.75 billion (for $10/share). At the same time, it closed a PIPE investment priced at $15 a share, giving it an implied pro forma equity value of $24 billion. Rumors about this deal circulated before the transaction was formally announced, making it one of the most anticipated SPAC deals. The hype and speculation drove up the stock price of Churchill Capital IV Corp. from its opening price of $10 a share to almost $60. I believe that some of this may have been driven by novice SPAC investors who didn't realize that the valuation of CCIV didn't include the eventual valuation of Lucid. The share price dropped more than 30% after the details of the deal were announced. It's also likely that Lucid renegotiated the terms of the merger based on the price jump.\nThe company's first product is the Lucid Air, a well-equipped luxury electric vehicle that features 406 miles of projected range and 480 horsepower with a starting price of $77,400, or $69,900 after the U.S. Federal Tax Credit of $7,500. This new Lucid Air model is positioned as a high-performance, ultra-efficient luxury EV sedan in a line of future vehicles that are expected to include Lucid Air Touring, Grand Touring, and Dream Edition versions.\nThe company plans to begin production and deliveries of the Lucid Air in North America in the second half of 2021. Previously the company aimed to begin deliveries earlier in 2021. It intends to sell the car in Europe in 2022, followed by China in 2023. Lucid vehicles will be produced at its new factory in Casa Grande, Arizona. The company plans to expand the factory in phases in the coming years to have the capacity to produce 365,000 units per year at scale. The initial phase of the $700 million factory construction was completed late last year and will have the capacity to produce 30,000 vehicles a year.\nLucid also apparently has a commitment to build an assembly plant in Saudi Arabia, which was rumored to be a condition of the $1 billion investment from the Saudi public fund. The Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund also provided $600 million in bridge financing and invested in the SPAC deal as well. So, while this assembly plant may be expensive and may not be critical, it will most likely need to happen.\nLucid has ambitious plans to achieve $14 billion in revenue in 2025, and its current stock price at $29.17, which gives it a market cap of more than $46 billion, may already reflect those ambitions. Its market cap is roughly the same as Ford.\nFisker (FSR)\nFisker, which had its origins with Fisker Automotive, is an interesting story that ended in bankruptcy. Henrik Fisker originally co-founded Fisker Automotive in 2007. He was responsible for designing many premium cars such as the Aston Martin. Subsequently, Fisker Automotive had to deal with a Tesla lawsuit against Fisker Automotive alleging it stole Tesla's technology, a controversial $528.7 million conditional loan from the Department of Energy, a recall of its battery produced by A123, and the loss of several hundred vehicles in hurricane Sandy. Henrik Fisker resigned in March 2013 because of disagreements over business strategy and in November 2013, Fisker filed its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case.\nHowever, Henrik Fisker retained the Fisker brand and trademarks, and in 2016 he started another electric vehicle company named Fisker Inc. with the Fisker brand and trademarks. In 2019, Fisker shifted from developing a sports car with a solid-state battery to the Ocean SUV featuring a lithium-ion battery, which it later abandoned for a solid-state battery.\nFisker is positioning itself in a unique segment for those who want the most environmentally friendly EV. While this may be an early growth segment for EVs, it's difficult to estimate its eventual competitive advantage and the size of this environmentally-friendly market segment.\nThe Ocean is a crossover made of recycled metal and plastic with an expected base price of $37,499, and an expected lease of less than $400 a month. Fisker's plan is essentially a lease-only business model that lets customers keep a vehicle for years or return it at any time. It aims to source motors, batteries, and other components from technical partnerships with automakers and will outsource production from existing auto plants. Fisker is currently taking reservations at $250 for the Ocean. It also announced an agreement with Foxconn to jointly develop a vehicle pioneering a new market segment to be sold globally under the Fisker brand commencing in Q4 2023. at the end of 2022. Production will start at Magna Steyr's manufacturing facilities in Europe. At the end of February 2021, it had 12,467 cancellable reservations.\nFisker Ocean. Source: Fisker\nFisker went public using a SPAC (Spartan Energy). The original combination with SPAQ in October 2020 was valued at $2.9 billion with a cash investment of approximately $1 billion. The stock currently trades at approximately $21 per share, after reaching a high of $28.50, from the original price of $10, which is a market cap of $4.6 billion. Fisker projects $3.3 billion in revenue in 2023. It had almost $1 billion in cash at the end of 2020 and expected to use almost half of this in 2021: $250 million on operating expenses and $250 million in capital investments. If the Ocean is delayed into 2023, Fisker risks missing its revenue objective and will potentially need additional cash to complete development and launch.\nFaraday Future (PSAC)\nFaraday Future was originally established in May 2014 by Chinese businessman Jia Yueting. It is headquartered in Los Angeles and has offices in Silicon Valley, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu. Faraday Future also had a turbulent history. In 2016, it struggled financially, and in 2017 some key executives departed over a dispute about financial issues. They later founded Canoo.\nIn December 2018 the company announced layoffs due to a cash crunch and financial troubles. The company's founder Jia Yueting filed for personal bankruptcy in the United States' federal court in Delaware on October 14, 2019. Following Jia's personal bankruptcy, he decided to step down from his role as CEO of Faraday Future in order to assume a new position as the Chief Product and User Officer. He was replaced as CEO by Carsten Breitfeld, the former CEO at rival electric vehicle startup Byton.\nSomehow, Faraday was able to raise $2.3 billion in private funding over 5 rounds from a variety of investors. In early 2018, it received $1.5 billion in funding from an undisclosed investor from Hong Kong.\nFaraday's flagship product offering will be the FF 91, featuring 1,050 HP, 0-60 mph in less than 2.4 seconds, zero gravity seats with the largest 60-degree reclining angles, and a user experience designed to create a mobile, connected, and luxurious living space. The FF 91 is targeted to launch in 2022.\nFF 91. Source: Faraday Future\nIts strategic partners include one of China's top three OEMs and a critical Chinese city, which the company believes will help establish its presence in the Chinese vehicle market.\nFaraday Future plans several cars based on its Variable Platform Architecture. FF 91 is the first production vehicle and flagship model. Pricing will range between $120,000 and upwards of $200,000, which places it against formidable opponents. Faraday Future is already looking forward to expanding its range with a pair of smaller models named FF 81 and FF 71. The FF 81 is planned to be priced at $75,000 to 95,000 with a 2023 release. The FF 71 is planned to be priced at $45,000 to $65,000 with a planned release of 2024.\nThe Primary Manufacturing Facility for FF 91 is in Hanford, CA with contract manufacturing for future models in Gunsan, South Korea.\nFaraday Future is planning high-Level automation with a Level-3 capable system using a redundant safety architecture based on NVIDIA Xavier System-on-a-chip. It will be capable of highway auto-drive and hardware ready for advanced auto-drive. It is targeting full autonomous valet parking & summon in any parking lot or structure. Eventually, it expects full auto-drive, including full 360˚ sensor coverage for advanced auto-drive & auto-park features.\nIn January 2021, Faraday Future announced that the company would go public through a reverse merger with the special purpose acquisition company Property Solutions Acquisition Corp. (PSAC). The combined company will be valued at $3.4 billion. Faraday Future is expected to set up contract manufacturing operations in China through their partnership with Geely. Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn is also expected to serve as an additional strategic partner.\nFaraday Future projects $10.5 billion in revenue in 2024 and $21.5 billion in 2025. Revenue is expected to start in 2022 with the delivery of 2,400 vehicles for $504 million. Most likely these projections could prove to be optimistic. At a current stock price of approximately $12.80, it has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nLordstown Motors (RIDE)\nLordstown Motors based in Lordstown, Ohio, was originally founded in 2018 by Steve Burns, the former CEO of Workhorse Group. The company licensed technology from Workhorse in return for royalties and a 10% ownership. Lordstown is named after the famous GM Lordstown manufacturing plant, which it acquired in November 2019 in an unusual transaction. GM announced that it was closing the plant and was under a great deal of pressure for that decision. So, GM \"sold\" the plant to a company that was renamed Lordstown for an estimated $20 million that it loaned to the acquiring company. Subsequently, the sale was redefined to be part of a $75 million investment by GM, of which $50 million was an in-kind exchange for the plant.\nLordstown went public through the SPAC DiamondPeak Holdings Corp. in 2020. It currently has more than 400 employees.\nIts first product is the Lordstown Endurance, a full-sized EV pickup truck. Lordstown is positioning Endurance for the pickup fleet market segment. The expected price is $52,000+, and it claimed to have more than 100,000 pre-orders by January 2021. However, a recent research article published by a short seller claimed \"Our research has revealed that Lordstown's order book consists of fake or entirely non-binding orders, from customers that generally do not even have fleets of vehicles.\" Lordstown is disputing that article.\nIt believes the fleet pickup market segment is underserved with no current EV-focused competition. It estimates that the full-sized pick-up truck fleet market is 1.2 million vehicles per year in the U.S., but it's more fragmented than other truck fleets. Pickup \"fleets\" tend to be much smaller and local, so there may not be much of a market distinction for a small company buying several EV pickups from a traditional auto dealer. About half of the total U.S. pickup market is classified as fleet sales, meaning more than one.\nEven though Lordstown is targeting the commercial fleet market, it is a similar product to the Ford EV F-150. So I classify it in the consumer EV category. It is a class 2 vehicle. Lordstown also may enter the SUV market in the longer-term.\nThe Endurance will compete against future models from Rivian and Tesla, as well as Ford and GM in ICE pick-ups and their upcoming EV pick-ups. Ford plans on selling its EV F-150 in mid-2022. Initial production of the Endurance is expected in the second half of 2021, so it may have a short market advantage. Nevertheless, it forecasts selling 65,000 vehicles in 2023 and 107,000 in 2024. These estimates could be a large percentage of the EV pick-up market in those years.\nAt the SPAC merger, the implied valuation for Lordstown was $1.6 billion, including a $500 million PIPE and the $75 million by GM. Lordstown's financial projections appear to be aggressive. It projects to start shipping the Endurance in late 2021 with projected revenue in 2022 of $1.7 billion, increasing to $5.8 billion in 2024. Its stock price at approximately $13.60 values the company at a market cap of approximately $2.2 billion. The value of the company depends on the likelihood of achieving its projections.\nA fleet sales strategy makes sense for Lordstown since it would be too expensive to build a retail sales and service capability. However, it's not clear that this will become a distinct competitive advantage. Some small fleets may still prefer to buy their EV pickups from established local dealers with service capabilities.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nCanoo started as Evelozcity in 2017 and rebranded as Canoo in the spring of 2019. Canoo is a Los Angeles-based company that develops electric vehicles. It has over 350 employees. Canoo has designed a modular electric platform purpose-built to deliver maximum vehicle interior space, which is adaptable to support a wide range of vehicle applications for consumers and businesses. Canoo expects to launch its first consumer model in 2022, simply named the Canoo that will be available by subscription, followed shortly after by a multi-purpose delivery vehicle and a sports vehicle, each built off of the same underlying platform. Canoo went public using a SPAC (Hennessy Capital Acquisition) and now trades as GOEV.\nCanoo's all-electric skateboard-like platform is designed to support both consumer retail and commercial vehicle configurations. The EV leverages Canoo's flat skateboard architecture for a high level of usable interior space. Its commercial vehicle program, expected in 2023, addresses a projected $50B+ last-mile delivery market with an EV platform that maximizes cargo volume.\nHyundai Motor Group said it would jointly develop an electric vehicle platform with the company.\nCanoo's platform strategy is interesting. It could be used as an EV platform for custom fleets of delivery vehicles. It has no AV development, but it claims to be \"AV Ready\" which could be useful for AV companies wanting to build custom AV delivery fleets.\nIts all-electric multi-purpose delivery vehicle is expected to be priced starting at approximately $33,000. It is based on Canoo's proprietary electric platform and will be offered in two initial size variants, with others to follow. Limited availability will begin in 2022, with scaled production and launch planned for 2023. Customers can pre-order the multi-purpose delivery vehicle for a refundable deposit of $100 per vehicle\nIt plans to offer two multi-purpose delivery vehicles: the MPDV1 and the larger MPDV2. The first has a 200-foot cargo volume and a range of 130-200 miles. It offers more capacity than today's ICE delivery vehicles at an affordable price with urban mobility enabled by a space-efficient footprint. The vehicle is also designed to fit within many height-restricted areas like parking garages.\nThe MPDV2 has a cargo volume of 450 feet and a range of 90-190 miles. Its roof and step-in height enable individuals to easily walk-in the vehicle and accommodate a standing position while inside.\nThe original SPAC transaction provided approximately $600 million, with a pro forma equity value of approximately $2.4 billion. Like other SPAC mergers, its stock price has fluctuated. It currently trades at about $15.90 per share for a market cap of approximately $3.7 billion. Canoo projects $2.0 billion in revenue in 2025 from about $500 million in engineering services, $1.2 billion from its consumer vehicle subscriptions, and the remainder from its commercial program. Canoo expects revenue of more than $300 million in 2022 after the launch of its lifestyle consumer vehicle.\nSince its first products are aimed at consumers, as is most of its forecasted 2025 revenue, I categorize it primarily as a consumer EV company. However, I think the design of that Canoo vehicle may not attract enough customers. More importantly, its subscription service way of selling its EV to consumers is risky. I think it has more potential in the commercial market, however, a dual strategy (consumer and commercial) is challenging. I like its skateboard platform design and that could prove to be a competitive advantage.\nRivian\nAlthough not yet public, I include Rivian because it has plans for an IPO as soon as Sept 2021, although it could slip into 2022. There are rumors that the company is targeting a market valuation of approximately $50B. Rivian has already raised more than $8 billion to date from Amazon, Ford, T. Rowe Price, and others.\nRivian has developed and vertically integrated a connected electric platform that can be flexibly applied to a range of applications, including the company's adventure products, as well as B2B products such as the Amazon last-mile delivery vans. The company's initial products, the R1T and R1S, provide a combination of performance, off-road capability, and utility. These vehicles will be produced at Rivian's manufacturing plant in Normal, Ill., with customer deliveries expected to begin in summer 2021. The launch of the R1S three-row electric SUV will follow in August.\nAdditional lower-priced models are being planned. The expected R2 series would include at least two smaller electric vehicles to coincide with the smaller platform, then another platform for R3.\nCommercial Delivery EV Companies\nEV truck companies differ based on the type of truck they are developing. The technology and markets are very different, so I separate them into two categories. The first category includes commercial delivery vehicles.\nCompanies making EV delivery vehicles have some major advantages that could make them good investments. First, delivery vehicles typically travel less than 250 miles during a day, so they can be conveniently recharged overnight. Secondly, they are typically sold in large quantities to fleets. This means that building a retail sales infrastructure is not necessary. It only requires a small salesforce. In addition, maintenance can also be provided at the fleet's operational center, so not as many service centers are required.\nThe disadvantage in this market is that there are a relatively small number of customers that buy in large volumes, so if the EV manufacturer can't get enough large customers, they may not be able to stay in business. GM estimates the combined market opportunity for parcel and food delivery, as well as reverse logistics, in the U.S. will be more than $850 billion by 2025.\nThe commercial market is expected to be a major growth area for EVs. Other start-up automakers like Rivian as well as legacy automakers such as Ford, Daimler, and GM have announced plans to enter the segment. GM recently announced its BrightDrop ecosystem for commercial customers that includes an all-new electric delivery van, the EV600 available by the end of 2021, as well as an integrated autonomous pallet and related services.\nThis group of EV companies focuses primarily on commercial delivery. In general, these are in the light-duty trucks category, although it also includes some medium-duty trucks. This generally includes the following commercial truck classes:\n\nClass 1: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 0-6,000 pounds or 0-2,722 kilograms.\nClass 2: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 6,001-10,000 pounds or 2,722-4,536 kilograms.1\nClass 3: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 10,001-14,000 pounds or 4,536-6,350 kilograms.\n\nIt can also include somewhat larger medium-duty EV delivery trucks:\n\nClass 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.\nClass 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.\n\nEV delivery trucks also have an advantage over ICE vehicles because they can have a greater delivery storage space. Smaller buses and transit vehicles are also included in this category.\nLast-mile package delivery is not an immediate-term autonomous vehicle opportunity because it requires a delivery person to be on the truck anyway.\nWorkhorse Group (WKHS)\nWorkhorse has been a public company for ten years. Originally AMP Electric Vehicles, it was established in 2007 as a developmental-stage vehicle electrification company, focusing on conversions. AMP Electric Vehicles went public in 2010 trading on the OTC market under the AMPD symbol. When the economic benefits of conversion became less certain, it pivoted away from passenger vehicles and began to focus on electrifying commercial vehicles. AMP acquired the Workhorse brand and the Workhorse custom chassis assembly plant in Union City. In March of 2013, AMP formally changed its name to Workhorse Group Incorporated.\nThe Company designs and builds a last-mile delivery electric vehicle. The C-Series EVs cover the larger size of commercial delivery vehicles in Classes 3-5. As part of its solutions, it also develops cloud-based, real-time telematics performance monitoring systems. It sells its vehicles to fleet customers directly and through its primary distributor, Ryder Systems. It is currently focused on bringing the C-Series electric delivery truck to market and fulfilling the existing backlog of orders.\nThe C-Series looks like a viable EV replacement for the 350,000 last-mile delivery vehicles sold in the U.S. annually. It recently announced an increased driving range from 100 miles to 160, which should open more market opportunities. It has a viable short-term go-to-market strategy selling fleets to delivery companies. It currently has test vehicles with UPS, DHL, FedEx, Amazon, and Walmart.\nWorkhorse recently lost out on the United States Postal Services Next Generation Delivery Vehicle project, however, it is in the process of challenging this decision. Additionally, its investment in Lordstown also provides an indirect investment opportunity. On November 7, 2019, the Company entered a transaction with Lordstown Motors to grant LMC a perpetual and worldwide license to certain intellectual property relating to its W-15 electric pickup truck platform and related technology in exchange for royalties, equity interest (approximately 10%) in LMC, and other considerations. This was a $320 million asset for Workhorse at the end of 2020.\nWorkhorse received a significant increase in orders in Q4/2020 but built just seven trucks in the fourth quarter due to production systems and supply chain issues. Workhorse plans to continue to take it slow, striving to build three of its composite-body battery-electric trucks a day in March with a plan to reach 10 trucks a day by the end of June. This makes its original 2021 goal of producing 1,800 trucks unlikely. It partnered with Hitachi and Hitachi Capital America (\"HCA\") to improve the Company's manufacturing, operational, and supply chain capabilities as well as to develop a national dealer network to support Workhorse's sales with vehicle financing options for both dealers and customers.\nWorkhorse has a market cap of approximately $1.9 billion. While Workhorse had ongoing revenue, unlike many other new EV companies, its revenue is still insignificant. It had a revenue of $1.4 million in 2020 and $377,000 in 2019. It has a backlog of over 8,000 vehicles but doesn't expect to be able to build many of those in 2021. It raised $270 million in capital over several financings, providing the Company with additional capital to build its backlog. It had cash of $215 million as of March 1, 2021. Because Workhorse is a traditional public company, it hasn't made long-term financial projections like SPAC-based companies.\nElectric Last Mile (FIII)\nElectric Last Mile, based in Troy Michigan, was founded by Jason Luo, former CEO of Ford China before it was acquired by China's Ningbo Joyson Electronic for $920 million in 2016, including James Taylor, former CEO of GM's Hummer brand and former CEO of electric car maker Karma Automotive. Taylor serves as the company's top executive with Luo as the company's chairman.\nThe company plans to launch a small electric delivery van (class 1-2), called the UD-1, in the third quarter of 2021, and then introduce an Urban Utility vehicle (Class 2-3) in 2022. These are expected to compete with Workhorse, Rivian, Canoo, as well as the Ford eTransit and the GMC BV1, none of which is expected to be a Class 1 vehicle.\nThe company says it has 30,000 preorders for its van, representing more than $1 billion in sales. Electric Last Miles vehicles will be based on Sokon's commercial van made in China through a joint venture with Dongfeng Automobile Co Ltd. in order to accelerate development time.\nElectric Last Mile (ELM) is expected to manufacture the vans in a former General Motors Co. Hummer plant in Mishawaka, Ind., that the company is acquiring from China's Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co. Ltd. The plant has the capacity to produce 100,000 vehicles annually with plans to build approximately 4,000 UD-1 vans by the end of 2021. The UD-1 has a starting price of $32,500 and a range of 150 miles. The battery for the vehicle is expected to be supplied by the Chinese battery company CATL.\nELM believes that it has a competitive advantage because its first vehicle, the ELM Urban Delivery, is scheduled to be available in 2021. It is based on a proven, existing platform developed and sold by Sokon Group in the Asian market, where there are 30,000 of these electric delivery vehicles driving 1.5 million miles every day. At the close of the business combination, ELM will be an independent, U.S. company producing electric vehicles in the U.S. with Sokon Group providing access to its know-how, parts supply, and field and service data.\nELM expects that the Urban Delivery vehicle will be the first electric delivery vehicle coming to market in the class 1 category (GVW of 6,000 lbs or less) in the U.S. It will also have 35% more carrying volume compared to similar ICE delivery vehicles, a critical part of the value proposition. It also anticipates that its price and greater carrying volume will allow it to take market share from the class 2 category of vehicles as well.\nIts crossover product portfolio strategy targets commercial delivery vehicles spanning from class 1 to class 3, which represents over 80% of the last mile market.\nELM anticipates $122 million in revenue in 2021, rapidly increasing to $3 billion in 2025. The price of FIII stock increased immediately following its announcement with Electric Last Mile, rising more than 40% to $14.50, but now it has dropped closer to the original deal price to $10.25 for a market cap of approximately $1.5 billion.\nGreenPower Motor Company (GP)\nGreenPower Motor Company Inc. is a Canadian battery-electric bus manufacturer with multiple models of high- and low-floor vehicles, including transit buses, school buses, and shuttles. GreenPower offers commercial vehicles for delivery, public transit, schools, vanpooling, micro-transit, shuttles, and is developing a capability of autonomous operation. It went public on August 28, 2020.\nIn 2014 GreenPower launched its first purpose-built, battery-electric bus, the EV350, 40-foot transit bus. GreenPower received its first order in 2017 for ten EV350s from the City of Porterville, California.\nGreenPower's electric buses are purpose-built and designed to be all-electric, allowing it to put the battery and propulsion system in optimized locations that provide weight and structural advantages. Its primary EV is the EV Star with more than 120 vehicles delivered. It comes in several variations:\n\nEV Star - Up to 19 passengers\nEV Star Plus - Up to 24 passengers\nEV Star ADA - Passenger and curbside lift for ADA\nEV Star Cargo - 5,000 pounds of load\nEV Star Cargo Plus - 570 cubic feet of cargo space.\n\nIts EV school bus seats up to 90 students and has a range of up to 150 miles.\nGreenPower had revenue of $13.5 million in 2020 It has about $21 million in cash. It's an interesting alternative since it is already shipping EVs, has revenue, and also has a lower market cap of less than $1 billion. Since it did a traditional IPO, it hasn't published longer-term financial forecasts.\nArrival (CIIC)\nArrival was founded in 2015 in London to make a variety of commercial electric vehicles. It has approximately 1,200 employees across 11 cities in 8 countries. In November 2020, Arrival and the SPAC CIIG entered into a business combination agreement with an implied valuation of $5.39 billion.\nArrival plans on releasing four commercial EVs over the next few years.\n\nQ4/2021: An electric bus for 8-125 passengers and a range of 240-400km\nQ3/2022: An electric delivery van with a payload of 975-2,000kg and a range of 150-340km\n2022: A larger electric van with a payload of 4,000 kg and a range of 190-400km\n2023: a small vehicle platform with a range of 100-300km.\n\nThis mix provides a nice diversified portfolio of EVs. Arrival claims to have received orders from UPS for 10,000 vans. It plans a unique flexible manufacturing approach using micro-factories with each projected to manufacture 10,000 vans per year. All of its vehicles use a modular skateboard electric platform.\nArrival ambitiously projects $14.1 billion in revenue in 2024. Half of that revenue is expected from delivery vans, 22% from buses, and the rest from the large van and its small vehicle platform. With CIIC's stock price at $24.80 per share, Arrival's current market cap is relatively high at approximately $15.0 billion. Justifying its market cap depends on its ability to release, sell, and produce its four commercial EVs.\nProterra (ACTC)\nProterra is a commercial electric vehicle company with over a decade of production experience. The Company has designed an end-to-end, flexible technology platform that claims to deliver higher performance and a low total cost of ownership to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end customers.\nProterra, Inc., was originally founded in Golden, Colorado, by Dale Hill in 2004. Later the company wanted to take the lead in creating zero-emission, U.S.-based transit buses. In 2010 it moved its manufacturing plant from Golden, Colorado to Greenville, South Carolina. In 2015, Proterra was awarded a $3 million grant from the California Energy Commission to fund the design, development, and construction of the company's battery-electric transit bus manufacturing line in the City of Industry, California. It moved its headquarters from Greenville, South Carolina, to Burlingame, California, in October 2015. Proterra raised more than $600 million in funding.\nIt is going public through the SPAC ArcLight (ACTC) with a pro forma valuation of $1.6 billion. Upon completion of the transaction, Proterra expects to have up to $825 million in cash to fund growth initiatives, including R&D and the expansion of its next-generation battery program.\nProterra has three complementary businesses:\n\nProterra Powered: Delivering battery systems and electrification solutions to commercial vehicle manufacturers\nProterra Transit:Providing an electric transit bus OEMs\nProterra Energy:Offering turnkey charging and energy management solutions.\n\nThe company's battery systems have been proven in more than 16 million service miles driven by its fleet of transit vehicles and validated through partnerships with commercial vehicle OEMs. Proterra has produced and delivered more than 300 megawatt-hours of battery systems, more than 550 heavy-duty electric transit buses, and installed 54 megawatts of charging systems.\nProterra expected $193 million of revenue in 2020, with an estimated $750 million in existing orders and backlog. It projects $2.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with about 1/3 coming from its Transit business, and 2/3 From Powered & Energy. At ACTC's current stock price of $17.85, Proterra has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nRivian\nRivian (see earlier description in consumer retail) will also compete in the commercial delivery market. It has been working with Amazon (a major investor) to build large electric delivery vans for Prime. Developed specifically for Amazon, a small fleet of Prime vans is on the road now, testing deliveries to customers and gathering feedback. In late fall, it could grow to a large fleet as Rivian ramps up the volume.\nThe EV range of 150 miles is tailored to Amazon's use cycle to optimize the size, weight, and cost of the commercial vehicle. Rivian has three sizes of batteries, but Amazon is starting with just one of them.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nSee the previous summary under consumer retail EV.\nMedium and Long-Haul Trucking EV Companies\nCompanies developing medium- and long-haul EV trucks face a more difficult challenge with battery range. These trucks haul much more weight than commercial delivery vehicles and because they are designed for long distances, they can't stop every 200-300 miles for recharging.\nFor this reason, many of these companies are using unique hybrid technologies for their trucks. The EV trucks in this category are primarily heavy-duty but also include some medium-duty trucks and specialty vehicles. A couple of the companies focus on retrofitting trucks to be electric.\nMedium-Duty Trucks\nThe medium-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 4, 5, and 6:\n\nClass 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.\nClass 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.\nClass 6: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 19,501-26,000 pounds or 8,846-11,793 kilograms.1\n\nHeavy-Duty Trucks\nThe heavy-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 7 and 8:\n\nClass 7: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 26,001 to 33,000 pounds or 11,794-14,969 kilograms.\nClass 8: This class of trucks has a GVWR of greater than 33,001 pounds or 14,969 kilograms and includes all tractor-trailers.\n\nThe Tesla Semi is a battery vehicle planned for a range of 300 or 500 miles and a speed of 60 MPH with 80,000 lbs of cargo. Tesla plans to start shipping the Semi later this year when it expects to have sufficient cell volume to meet its needs with the production of its 4680 battery pack.\nNikola(NASDAQ:NKLA)\nNikola has been a very controversial company. Founded in 2015, it originally had two different strategies. Its primary strategy is to lease fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) Class-8 heavy trucks and provide the refueling infrastructure to corporate customers. Its second strategy was to develop the Badger EV truck using GM technology.\nNikola originally merged with a SPAC to go public, at an enterprise value of approximately $3.3 billion. On June 6th, 2020, its market cap jumped to more than $30 billion, then later it dropped because of problems with its originally planned deal with GM.\nNikola originally expected a deal with General Motors that included the production of the Nikola Badger EV pickup truck. The proposed arrangement was that GM would take a $2 billion equity stake in Nikola and in return would engineer and produce the Badger. In November 2020, GM and Nikola scrapped the original arrangement. Now it appears that GM will supply Nikola with only its Hydrotec hydrogen fuel-cell technology to integrate into the EV manufacturer's commercial class 7 and class 8 zero-emission semi-trucks. So, the Badger is probably dead.\nNikola now sees semi-trucks as the company's \"core business\" and fuel cells as an increasingly important segment of the semi-truck market thanks to their efficiency in weight and consumption. It expects to begin testing by the end of 2021.\nIt has received pre-orders from Anheuser-Busch and a few other companies, but it doesn't expect deliveries until 2023. Hydrogen fueling stations are key to its strategy, both providing a source of revenue and necessary fueling infrastructure for the trucks to operate, but they also cost a lot. In its March 2020 investor deck, Nikola said a single station capable of fueling 210 trucks a day would cost $16.6 million. Its initial planned network of 700 stations would cost roughly $11.6 billion.\nNikola was also accused of misrepresentation, and its executive chairman and founder stepped down.\nAt the time of the SPAC merger, it projected an optimistic forecast of more than $3 billion in revenue by 2024, with a net income of $145 million. Most of that revenue was expected to come from its Badger truck, which is no longer in the plans. Yet its market cap is still almost $6 billion.\nHyliion (HYLN)\nHyliion, founded in 2015 in Austin, went public in October 2020 through the SPAC Tortoise Acquisition Corp. (SHLL). In March 2019, automotive parts manufacturer Dana Inc. made an equity investment into Hyliion, and together they are manufacturing and marketing Class 8 EVs to Dana's customers, including Volvo, Navistar, and Peterbilt.\nHyliion's strategy is unique, and a very different strategy from Nikola. Essentially it generates electricity onboard the truck using compressed natural gas (CNG). This should be a benefit for longer-range trucking. Hyliion's Hypertruck concept involves an all-electric drivetrain utilizing Dana's electric motor, inverter, and axle technologies. The truck's batteries are fueled by onboard tanks of CNG. With some 700 CNG stations already operating nationwide, it believes that there no need to build out expensive superchargers or hydrogen infrastructure.\nKuwait-based logistics company, Agility, has already placed an order for 1,000 Hypertrucks with initial deliveries targeted in 2022. Combined with a fully electric drivetrain and a natural gas-powered onboard generator to recharge the battery, the Hypertruck ERX will provide more than 1,000 miles of range.\nHyliion will eventually compete with Nikola (FCEV) and the Tesla battery-based Semi, but it plans to have a longer range and lower operating costs. Its HyperTruck ERX is expected to be available in 2021. It also has a hybrid-electric truck.\nThe combination with SHLL had an estimated market cap of about $1.5 billion, with approximately $530 million going to the company, including a $325 million fully committed PIPE. At approximately $13.50 per share, its current market cap is approximately $2.2 billion, significantly down from its peak. Hyliion projects $2 billion in revenue in 2024, which it claims is only about 2% of the addressable market.\nXL Fleet (XL)\nXL Fleet is a 10-year old company that went public through the SPAC Pivotal. XL is different because it provides fleet electrification modifications for ICE trucks across a wide range of vehicle classes (class 2-5) and types. It has over 200 of the largest commercial and municipal fleets as customers, with more than 3,200 XL systems deployed and over 130 million miles driven by customers to date. XL's customer base includes FedEx, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Verizon, the City of Boston, Seattle Fire Department, Yale University, and Harvard University.\nXL's business model is essentially retrofitting existing trucks to be hybrids and then later expanding into fully electric truck conversions. It claims to be creating a fully integrated platform for this. It remains to be seen if the retrofitting business will continue to grow or will it diminish when more trucks are designed and manufactured with EV capabilities.\nUnlike some other EV companies that have no revenue yet because they are still developing products, XL is more of a small company doing low-volume retrofits. It had $7.2 million in revenue in 2019, $21 million in 2020, and estimates $76 million in 2021, but it forecasts $1.3 billion in revenue in 2024 in its investor presentation. It plans to do this by expanding its product line from hybrid to plug-in hybrid to fully electric across a broader range of trucks. It claims to have a $220 million sales pipeline for the next 12 months.\nShort-seller, Muddy Waters, claimed after talking to former XL Fleet employees, that it believed the company significantly exaggerated its order backlog, that the return on investment for the company's products was likely negative, and that it would not be able to compete with big car makers on electrification. The company thoroughly refuted these claims.\nThe original enterprise valuation was approximately $1.4 billion at a $10 share price for the merger. Its price jumped by about 35% but has since gone back down to $12.40 for a market cap of about $1.8 billion. Although XL Fleet has revenue and other EV companies don't, this may not be an advantage. It appears to be a small company for many years that has gone public at a high valuation with grand plans. The risks are in its ability to make a jump from $76 million in 2021 to $1.3 billion in 2024, as well as the question about retrofitting being replaced by new EV trucks by then.\nXos (NGAC)\nXos Trucks specializes in the field of manufacturing fully electric commercial vehicles. It features a software platform that is designed to accommodate an extensive variety of medium-duty bodies, wheelbase, and range requirements up to 200 miles. It was founded in 2016 and headquartered in North Hollywood, California. It received $20 million of investment in 2020 and now is going public through a merger with the SPAC ExtGen Acquisition Corporation (NGAC) at an estimated proforma value of $1.965 billion.\nIts focus is on medium- and heavy-duty last mile and return-to-base segments (class 5/6, class 6/7, and class 7/8) commercial fleets and specialty vehicles. Some vehicles are currently in production and in regular on-road operations with key fleet customers, and it claimed 6,000 unit orders in backlog.\nIts MD-platform is for classes 5-6 for pickup and delivery. Its HD X-Platform is an adaptable chassis for highway, vocational, and severe work conditions. Its market is for customers with highly predictable routes that allow for batteries designed for a more limited range. A significantly larger frame and smaller battery pack allow for reduced density.\nXos has a bundled all-in-one offering that allows fleets to access all the tools and services they need to go electric with a single point of contact at a fixed monthly expense.\nXos had $3 million in revenue in 2020 and estimates $14 million in 2021. However, it forecasts $5.2 billion in revenue in 2025. At the current stock price of $10.30, its market cap is approximately $2 billion, about the same as its original SPAC transaction.\nLion Electric (NGA)\nLion Electric is a Canadian company founded by Marc Bédard in 2008. Its focus is to be a leader in designing, developing, and manufacturing purpose-built urban electric vehicles; vehicles that are specifically designed as delivery trucks, refuse trucks, bucket trucks, moving trucks, school buses, and shuttle buses. It has over 300 all-electric vehicles on the road today.\nIn November 2020, it announced that it was going public through the SPAC NGA. The transaction had an estimated pro forma enterprise value of $1.5 billion.\nIt plans on seven new truck models and one new school bus, for a total of 15 all-electric vehicles, representing a full line-up from class 5 to class 8 electric trucks and a full line-up of electric school buses. Its vehicles are produced at its existing manufacturing plant, which has the capacity for the production of up to 2,500 vehicles per year. It intends to open a new plant in the U.S. capable of delivering over 20,000 Lion trucks and buses per year by 2022.\nIts all-electric class 6 and class 8 commercial urban trucks combine power, comfort, and modern technology. Custom-built chassis and cabin designed specifically for an all-electric heavy-duty vehicle. The LionC is an all-electric Type C school bus manufactured in North America. The body and chassis were specifically designed to deliver optimal performance. The LionM is an all-electric midi/minibus that meets paratransit and public transportation requirements. Created and designed specifically for the paratransit market, the is spacious and offers unique features that provide enhanced security and accessibility to the end-users.\nLion Electric had $29 million in revenue in 2020 and expects $204 million in 2021. It forecasts revenue to jump to $3.6 billion a few years later in 2024. Its current market cap is approximately $3.6 billion based on its current stock price of $18.33.\nLightning eMotors (GIK)\nLightning eMotors, formerly Lightning Systems, was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Loveland, Colorado. It provides fleet electrification for familiar commercial vehicle platforms by retrofitting them with its electric powertrains. Lightning eMotors produces electric fleet medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including delivery trucks, shuttle buses, passenger vans, ambulances, bucket trucks, chassis-cab models, and city transit buses. It focuses on urban commercial zero-emission vehicles with a full range of class 3 through class 7 battery-electric and fuel-cell electric vehicles.\nLighting eMotors helps commercial fleets achieve their sustainability goals by offering zero-emission battery-electric vans, trucks, and buses based on familiar, proven vehicles from manufacturers such as Ford and GM. It works with customers, to help them identify their unique commercial electric vehicle, charging, and grant support needs.\nThe Lightning products include integrated all-electric powertrains for the Ford Transit 350HD passenger and cargo vans, Ford E-450 shuttle bus and cutaway models, Ford F-59 step/food van, Ford F-550 cargo trucks and buses, Chevrolet 6500XD Low Cab Forward model, and 30-foot, 35-foot, and 40-foot transit buses.\nLightning has 120 vehicles on the road, and 1,500 vehicles already on order from customers. In addition to making vehicles and powertrains, Lightning also provides a full suite of charging solutions for customers.\nThe deal with GIK has an enterprise value of $650 million, although there is also an Earnout of 20.0% of total pro forma shares outstanding to Lightning eMotors shareholders if the stock crosses certain price thresholds.\nAt the current price, of $11.73, GIK has a market cap of approximately $1 billion, a little more than the original transaction valuation. Similar to XL Fleet, Lightning has the risk that retrofitting may only be an interim business opportunity until more EV trucks are produced.\nPublic Chinese EV Companies\nChina will be the biggest EV market opportunity, and EV start-ups may do better there because there isn't as much entrenched competition from domestic auto companies. China is already the largest EV market in the world, with almost a million EVs sold in 2019. Its EV market represents almost half of the global EV sales volume and is much larger than the U.S. market.\nThe Chinese government has ambitions to become a global leader in new energy vehicles. Soon after the coronavirus outbreak subsided within the country, Chinese authorities announced new policies to support the auto and electric vehicle industries.\nThese Chinese companies are traded through American depository shares (ADS) that contain certain risks. There are financial reporting and transparency risks with these companies, and on top of that, the newer companies are being classified as \"emerging growth\" companies that are already exempt from certain transparency requirements set out in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Like the previous EV stock, these stocks have also been very volatile.\nIn addition to legacy auto manufacturers like BYD, there are also three Chinese EV companies that are publicly traded through American depositary shares.\nBYD Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:BYDDY)\nBYD, which means build your dreams, is the automotive subsidiary of the Chinese multinational BYD Co Ltd. It was founded in January 2003, following BYD Company's acquisition of Tsinchuan Automobile Company. The company produces automobiles, buses, electric bicycles, forklifts, rechargeable batteries, and trucks. The current model range of automobiles includes electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and petrol-engined vehicles. Thirteen years ago, on the advice of his famously skeptical lieutenant, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett made a $232 million investment in BYD, a relatively unknown Chinese car company.\nBy parlaying BYD's rechargeable battery technology into a fast-growing carmaking operation, it gained a foothold in the fledgling electric vehicle market, building longer-lasting batteries and cheaper vehicles than American and Japanese manufacturers were managing to do at the time. In BYD, Buffett and Munger believed they had found a company with a shot at one day becoming the largest player in a global automobile market that was inevitably going electric.\nBYD's start to 2021 was strong with 19,871 plug-in electric cars sold in January in China, including hybrid plug-ins. That was a big increase over 2020 but not as much as 2019.\nLI Auto (LI)\nLixiang, formerly known as Chehejia (\"Car and Home\"), was founded in 2015 and went public in the U.S. on July 30th, 2020. It is a Beijing-based electric-vehicle startup with vertically integrated manufacturing. It designs, researches, manufactures, sells, and offers services featuring a few models of electric vehicles.\nThe company's SUVs are hybrids of a sort. They use electric motors (one on the front axle and one on the rear), but those motors are powered by a combination of a 40.5kWh battery packanda 1.2-liter turbocharged engine paired to a 45-liter fuel tank and a 100kW electric generator, which generates power for the battery pack in real-time. The idea is that the car can be driven for about 100 miles on battery power alone, but it has a total range of nearly 500 miles when leveraging the combustion engine generator.\nThe Company's primary product is an SUV under its brand Li ONE. It also sells peripheral products and provides related services, such as charging stalls, vehicle internet connection services, and extended lifetime warranties. Li Auto is looking to sell a variety of SUVs built on its hybrid technology that range from around $21,000 to about $70,000. The company started shipping its first model in late 2019. It's a midsize SUV is well-appointed and has lots of touchscreens and technology. A full-size premium version is planned for release in 2022.\nDeliveries of Li ONEs were 14,464 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a 67.0% quarter-over-quarter increase and setting a new quarterly record. Deliveries for the full year 2020 reached 32,624 vehicles. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $635 million.\nLI auto went public on July 30th, 2020, raising $1.1 billion at an initial price of $15.50 per share but quickly reached almost $24. It is currently valued at approximately $37 billion at a price of approximately $25.72 per share.\nXPeng (XPEV)\nXiaopeng (XPeng) Motors is a Chinese electric vehicle and technology company that designs and manufactures smart cars. It was founded in 2015 and went public on August 27, 2020, using American depository shares, raising about $1 billion. To date, it has raised about $2.6 billion.\nXPeng aims its EVs at technology-savvy middle-class Chinese consumers, with prices ranging from $22,000 to $45,000 after government subsidies. In some ways, it is a Tesla knock-off at a much lower price. XPeng started production of the G3 in November 2018, and as of July 31, 2020, delivered 18,741. It started production of the P7 and began delivery in May 2020, and as of July 31, 2020, it had delivered 1,966 EVs. The P7 has a range of more than 400 miles. It plans to launch a third Smart EV, a sedan, in 2021. The G3 was among the top-three best-selling electric SUVs in China in 2019.\nXPeng is interesting because it has a platform strategy and is moving aggressively into autonomous driving. It uses a platform strategy to expand product offerings by launching one Smart EV model each year to broaden the addressable market. It builds new models on two highly flexible Smart EV platforms, called David and Edward, respectively. The David platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,600 millimeters to 2,800 millimeters, and the Edward platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,800 millimeters to 3,100 millimeters. It also adopted a platform approach for software systems.\nXPeng claims to be developing an autonomous driving capability for its EVs. The P7 is the first production vehicle to feature the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Xavier system-on-a-chip (SoC) autonomous driving platform. The company's Smart Electric Platform Architecture (SEPA) runs on 2 chips - NVIDIA for the XPILOT and Qualcomm's Snapdragon™ 820A for intelligent services and infotainment, including cameras inside and outside, radars, HD-map, and ultrasonic sensors. Like Tesla, it claims it can create sufficiently-autonomous driving without lidar.\nTo enhance brand recognition and allow more people to experience its Smart EVs, it deployed a small number of Smart EVs in a ride-hailing service in Guangzhou on a trial basis, but it has no current plan to scale up a ride-hailing service.\nXpeng sees first-quarter 2021 deliveries rising 450% year-over-year to 12,500 vehicles. Revenues are expected to increase 533% from a year ago. The company didn't provide bottom-line estimates for the quarter, but will likely post another net loss as it ramps up manufacturing, invests in R&D, and builds out a new manufacturing plant set to open in 2022.\nXpeng reported selling 12,964 vehicles in Q4 2020, up 303% from a year ago. It delivered a total of 27,041 vehicles in 2020, up 112%. It makes the P7 sedan, a rival to the made-in-China Tesla Model 3, and the small G3 SUV.\nThe stock opened on August 27, 2020 at a price of $15 and a valuation of $11 billion, but its stock jumped more than 40% shortly after. Its current valuation is about $35 billion at a stock price of approximately $36.13 per share. It had about $300 million in revenue in 2019 with a loss of about $500 million.\nNio (NIO)\nUnlike previous companies, Nio has been a public company for some time. It originally went public in the U.S. back in September of 2018, selling IPO shares at $6.26 and raising $1 billion.\nNio's IPO was far from smooth. After going public at $6.26 per share, it traded down to nearly $1. Then in the middle of the coronavirus outbreak, Nio received a much-needed investment of $1 billion from investors, including state-backed entities.\nNio designs, jointly manufactures, and sells smart and connected premium electric vehicles, attempting to develop next-generation technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving, and artificial intelligence. Joint manufacturing means that it uses a state-owned contract manufacturer to build its cars.\nNio plans to provide customers with comprehensive, convenient, and innovative charging solutions and other user-centric services. It began deliveries of the ES8, a 7-seater high-performance premium electric SUV in China in June 2018, and its variant, the six-seater ES8, in March 2019. Nio officially launched the ES6, a 5-seater high-performance premium electric SUV, in December 2018 and began deliveries in June 2019. It officially launched the EC6, a 5-seater smart premium electric Coupe SUV, in December 2019 with deliveries in 2020.\nNio sold 17,353 EVs in Q4/2020 and 43,728 for the year. It warned a shortage in chips and batteries will force a production slowdown to 7,500 a month in Q2 from 10,000 vehicles a month in February.\nNio currently trades at more than $43 per share, including a big jump recently, for a valuation of approximately $48 billion. It had revenue of $2.3 billion in 2019 for a loss of $3.8 billion.\nSummary\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this should provide exciting new investment opportunities. However, the investment terrain is complex. There are dozens of new start-ups where the public can now invest that were previously exclusively venture capital investment opportunities. Many of these are following different roads to success. There are legacy auto manufacturers that could prosper or get destroyed in this transition. There are some exciting new EV company opportunities in China. And then there is Tesla.\nThis EV roadmap is intended to help investors explore different roads to investment by explaining the basic strategies for these EV companies. These roads can have different opportunities and risks, and the roadmap helps to frame these. Above all, valuation is an overriding risk that is highlighted throughout this article.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3858962,"gmtCreate":1616463605037,"gmtModify":1680781360121,"authorId":3559787818034959,"author":{"id":3559787818034959,"idStr":"3559787818034959","authorId":3559787818034959,"name":"Ericlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2154f4bb8afd22f8e6fde60b57acb69","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-3","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":" Tiger Idol","description":"Join the tiger community for 1500 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.09.15","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":353944117,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Yes","text":"Yes","html":"Yes"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":353956903,"gmtCreate":1616457534102,"gmtModify":1704794272111,"author":{"id":"3563253186452228","authorId":"3563253186452228","name":"Sheryl85","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7a9183a9332355f694e2f0af874b0ed","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3563253186452228","authorIdStr":"3563253186452228"},"htmlText":"good article","listText":"good article","text":"good article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353956903","repostId":1196402560,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196402560","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616134696,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196402560?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-19 14:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"New Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196402560","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, an","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>It's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.</li>\n <li>Last October, I wrote a popular article providing a roadmap for investing in electric vehicles, but since then, so much has changed: new entrants, new strategies, fluctuating valuations, etc.</li>\n <li>So, I updated and greatly expanded the previous EV investment roadmap.</li>\n <li>This update includes a deeper look at valuations for 23 EV companies with revenue projections, when available.</li>\n <li>It also classifies these EV companies into their primary market categories and summarizes their different strategies.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb96acc615cba9c7842860658c019ab1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\">Photo by Sven Loeffler/iStock via Getty Images\nMy article&nbsp;Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap&nbsp;published five months ago, was popular, and some followers have requested an update. Many new EV companies entered the market, most of them through SPACs. Valuations fluctuated wildly, and there has been a great deal of publicity around these companies.\nThis new updated EV investment roadmap is greatly expanded. In addition to updating the strategies and progress of companies previously discussed, I expanded the number of companies covered. This article also groups EV companies into their primary markets, enabling better comparisons and evaluation of market opportunities. In addition, it includes a comparative valuation chart showing every company's market cap with a comparison to projected revenue, where possible. This takes advantage (good or bad) of looking at the long-term revenue forecasts provided in SPAC mergers that public companies can't make.\nIn addition to the EV manufacturers discussed here, there are also EV investment opportunities in charging station companies, battery manufacturers, and battery materials companies. These were covered in the original roadmap and may also be updated in a later article.\nApproximately 2 million EVs were sold in 2019, and although the number declined along with all auto sales in 2020, it is forecasted to increase in 2021 and reach 8-10 million by 2025. Some forecast that EV sales will be greater than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2030, or even earlier. The automobile market appears to be moving toward a historical transformation, and exceptional investment gains can be made by anticipating new emerging industries and investing in the eventual winners of those new industries. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)are obvious examples. Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to create a new emerging industry.\nThere are also significant risks. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to be released in the next three years, which will drive rapid growth in EV sales. However, the expected sales from these new models, as well as the increasing expectations from Tesla, most likely exceed the total projected market. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the companies covered here won't exist five years from now. It reminds me of the internet bubble of the late 1990s when scores of internet-based companies went public with little or no revenue. Almost all of these failed within three years -- however, a couple, including Amazon, went on to enormous success.\nEVs provide a major new investment opportunity with high risks. To succeed, you need to have a clear EV investment roadmap.\nSo, how can you invest in this new emerging market? The EV landscape is complex and investment opportunities are varied. While Tesla is the unquestioned leader in EVs, some consider it overvalued and unlikely to show exceptional returns to new investors. The current U.S. legacy automakers are committed to introducing many new EVs in the next few years, and they have some entrenched advantages with volume manufacturing capabilities, a dealer infrastructure, and loyal customers. There are exciting new EV start-ups in the U.S. that have come public this year, mostly through Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), and there are several interesting publicly traded Chinese EV manufacturers.\nThis new roadmap for EV investment classifies companies into three primary markets segments:\n<ul>\n <li>TheConsumer Retailsegment includes EVs sold to consumers individually, such as SUVs, pickup trucks, sedans, etc.</li>\n <li>TheCommercial Deliverysegment includes local delivery EV vans and trucks sold to fleets.</li>\n <li>TheMedium- and Long-Haul Truckingsegment includes heavier Class 4 - Class 8 trucks, as well as special industrial vehicles.</li>\n</ul>\nIn addition, it categorizesLegacy ManufacturersandChinese EV Companies. This enables investors to evaluate investment opportunities by considering unique opportunities within each market segment.\nThere is an enormous amount of investment optimism for EVs, and retail investors have been aggressively buying into EV stocks with seemingly no regard for valuation. Then there is the additional challenge of valuing companies with no revenue, especially those coming public through SPACs. So, valuation is an important investment consideration.\nSo let's start by looking at an overview of comparative EV valuations.\nEV Investment Valuation Overview\nThe following chart summarizes valuations for 23 EV companies, including several legacy companies. For SPACs, market cap estimates are computed using the pro forma number of shares at closing, otherwise using the valuation of the SPAC prior to closing drastically underestimates the valuation, which may be misleading to novice investors. Price/Sales ratios (market cap divided by revenue) are used to compare valuations. As a benchmark, current P/S ratios vary. For example, auto and truck companies have a ratio of 2.7X. Software companies have the highest ratios of over 10X.\nIn the chart, companies that currently have revenue show current P/S ratios. Where projections are available, projected P/S ratios are computed. A note of caution, however. Many of the EV companies came public through SPACs and published their projections (which public companies cannot do), and many of these are likely to prove unrealistic.\nAll of the longer-term revenue projections come from the company (C) forecasts with a SPAC. Some of these may turn out to be accurate, not many are most likely unrealistic. Some, like Lucid, Faraday, and Arrival forecast hitting more than $10 billion in revenue in a few years, when it took Tesla more than 10. Things are different now and they might achieve these, but they could also find that it will take longer to complete development, ramp up production, and create enough customer demand. Many companies may also find that there will be significant capital requirements to achieve this type of growth, and shareholders will be diluted.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc360dfa7de01516b7f68d5962cf3017\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"883\">\nTesla, the \"gold standard\" in EVs, has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, which many people believe is overvalued. Its market cap is approximately 20X 2020 revenue and 10X estimated 2022 revenue.\nTesla (TSLA)\nIn the U.S., and to a lesser extent in China, Tesla is the dominant EV provider. It has approximately 60% of the U.S. EV market and about 20% of the market in China. I own a Tesla and love it, but an investment in Tesla stock requires getting comfortable with its valuation. Tesla has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, although declining lately, which some consider still overvalued while others see upside potential.\nThe investment opportunity with Tesla is based on the expectation that it will continue to dominate the EV market, or at least maintain significant market share, despite much greater competition from the expected introduction of hundreds of new EV models in the next few years.\nThere is a great deal already published about Tesla, so I'll move on.\nLegacy Automakers\nSome people think that the legacy automakers will simply fade away. Historically, that was the case in some other industries, but it is not going to happen to most automakers. They are not standing still waiting to become obsolete. Most have aggressive strategies to replace ICE vehicles with EVs. GM plans to invest $27 billion and build and launch as many as 30 new EV models by 2025. Ford plans to invest $29 billion in EVs by 2025 and launch as many as 16 EVs in the next two years. Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY)has also committed billions to develop new EVs.\nThe competitive advantage that legacy automakers have in selling their new EVs is their dealer network. Will new EV customers prefer to continue going to their regular auto dealer to buy their new EV?\nAlmost all legacy automakers worldwide are developing and launching EVs including Volkswagen, Peugeot, Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi, Hyundai/Kia. Let's look a little more closely at GM and Ford as the leaders in the U.S.\nGeneral Motors (GM)\nGM has committed to introducing 20 new electric vehicles by 2023, including EVs across Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC, and Buick. It recently announced that it has already sold out the first-year production of its Hummer electric pickup. By mid-decade, it expects to sell a million EVs per year in its two largest markets: North America and China. As a reference point, Tesla reported deliveries of 367,500 vehicles globally in 2019.\nGM has a solid platform strategy for its EVs. It plans on building its EVs using five interchangeable drive units and three different motors from its Ultium Drive System platform. Ultium energy options range from 50 to 200 kWh, which could enable an estimated range of up to 400 miles. Most of its EVs will have 400-volt battery packs and up to 200 kW fast-charging capability while the truck platform will have 800-volt battery packs and 350 kW fast-charging capabilities.\nThe key building blocks of the Ultium battery system are large-scale, high-energy cells. Engineered in partnership with LG Energy Solutions, they use both advanced chemistry and a smart cell design that's optimized for a broad portfolio of EVs. GM engineers and scientists are actively researching and testing new elements in battery chemistry to lower costs and improve charge times. Ultium can contain either vertically- or horizontally-stacked cells to integrate into vehicle design: vertically for trucks, SUVs, and crossovers, or horizontally for cars and performance vehicles. As new chemistry is developed and becomes available, the battery management system could digitally update the modules.\nGM also has other EV opportunities with its BrightDrop commercial EV service and its Cruise subsidiary. BrightDrop will not just sell delivery EVs, it will provide an entire service platform for commercial delivery customers. Its set of electric delivery vehicles starts with the EV600 and includes the BrightDrop EP1, a pod-like electric pallet. SeeGeneral Motors' Aggressive EV/AV Strategies May Payoff Big.\nWith its highest stock price of $61.65, GM's current market cap is approximately $89 billion, increasing primarily because of its progress with EVs. This approximately 3X valuation in 2018, but still only 13% of Tesla.\nFord (F)\nFord is also investing heavily in EVs. It just introduced the Mustang Mach-E, a battery-powered crossover with sports car styling, and plans to introduce an all-electric version of its best-selling F-150 pickup later this year. Also, planned is an electric edition of the full-size Transit van, which has been popular in the commercial delivery market. Ford has confirmed plans to build a luxury Lincoln crossover on a battery-powered platform provided by Rivian. The automaker also plans to introduce two new midsize electric crossovers, one each for the Ford and Lincoln brands by 2023.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd8523e15bccc57790940d4218f7b94e\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"1080\">Mustang Mach-E. Source: Ford\nFord's market cap is approximately $51 billion, twice its previous market cap, and also increasing.\nConsumer Retail EV Companies\nThe consumer retail market has some unique characteristics for new EV companies. Sales are made individually, not in fleets. This diversifies the risk upon launch because only a sufficient number of customers need to be attracted to the new EV. A wave of popularity can provide terrific momentum.\nHowever, the lack of a dealer network can be an impediment. Selling EVs directly to consumers instead of through dealers is prohibited in most states. By law, auto manufacturers can't compete with franchised dealers. These are laws that go back many decades to protect dealers. This can be a major impediment for new companies without established independent dealer franchises. So, new AV companies. like Tesla, need to sell their vehicles online. Tesla has successfully done this, but it took a lot of work and time. Lack of a dealer network also creates impediments in service.\nIn addition, over the next 4-5 years, autonomous capabilities will be increasingly important to luxury vehicles. This may prove to be a challenge to start-up EV companies because they can't afford to develop this technology.\nLet's look closer at the alternative consumer retail EV investments.\nLucid Motors (CCIV)\nLucid was founded in 2007 under the name Atieva and originally focused on building electric vehicle batteries and powertrains for other vehicle manufacturers. The company rebranded itself as Lucid Motors in October 2016 and shifted its strategy to develop an all-electric, high-performance, luxury vehicle. Shortly after that, it encountered financial difficulties and struggled to get short-term funding. In 2018 it raised more than $1 billion in investment, primarily from Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund, and gave up a majority of the company.\nLucid Motors reached an agreement to become a publicly-traded company through a merger with the SPAC Churchill Capital IV Corp., in one of the largest deals SPAC EV deals. The combined company, in which Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund will continue to be the largest shareholder, had a transaction equity value of $11.75 billion (for $10/share). At the same time, it closed a PIPE investment priced at $15 a share, giving it an implied pro forma equity value of $24 billion. Rumors about this deal circulated before the transaction was formally announced, making it one of the most anticipated SPAC deals. The hype and speculation drove up the stock price of Churchill Capital IV Corp. from its opening price of $10 a share to almost $60. I believe that some of this may have been driven by novice SPAC investors who didn't realize that the valuation of CCIV didn't include the eventual valuation of Lucid. The share price dropped more than 30% after the details of the deal were announced. It's also likely that Lucid renegotiated the terms of the merger based on the price jump.\nThe company's first product is the Lucid Air, a well-equipped luxury electric vehicle that features 406 miles of projected range and 480 horsepower with a starting price of $77,400, or $69,900 after the U.S. Federal Tax Credit of $7,500. This new Lucid Air model is positioned as a high-performance, ultra-efficient luxury EV sedan in a line of future vehicles that are expected to include Lucid Air Touring, Grand Touring, and Dream Edition versions.\nThe company plans to begin production and deliveries of the Lucid Air in North America in the second half of 2021. Previously the company aimed to begin deliveries earlier in 2021. It intends to sell the car in Europe in 2022, followed by China in 2023. Lucid vehicles will be produced at its new factory in Casa Grande, Arizona. The company plans to expand the factory in phases in the coming years to have the capacity to produce 365,000 units per year at scale. The initial phase of the $700 million factory construction was completed late last year and will have the capacity to produce 30,000 vehicles a year.\nLucid also apparently has a commitment to build an assembly plant in Saudi Arabia, which was rumored to be a condition of the $1 billion investment from the Saudi public fund. The Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund also provided $600 million in bridge financing and invested in the SPAC deal as well. So, while this assembly plant may be expensive and may not be critical, it will most likely need to happen.\nLucid has ambitious plans to achieve $14 billion in revenue in 2025, and its current stock price at $29.17, which gives it a market cap of more than $46 billion, may already reflect those ambitions. Its market cap is roughly the same as Ford.\nFisker (FSR)\nFisker, which had its origins with Fisker Automotive, is an interesting story that ended in bankruptcy. Henrik Fisker originally co-founded Fisker Automotive in 2007. He was responsible for designing many premium cars such as the Aston Martin. Subsequently, Fisker Automotive had to deal with a Tesla lawsuit against Fisker Automotive alleging it stole Tesla's technology, a controversial $528.7 million conditional loan from the Department of Energy, a recall of its battery produced by A123, and the loss of several hundred vehicles in hurricane Sandy. Henrik Fisker resigned in March 2013 because of disagreements over business strategy and in November 2013, Fisker filed its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case.\nHowever, Henrik Fisker retained the Fisker brand and trademarks, and in 2016 he started another electric vehicle company named Fisker Inc. with the Fisker brand and trademarks. In 2019, Fisker shifted from developing a sports car with a solid-state battery to the Ocean SUV featuring a lithium-ion battery, which it later abandoned for a solid-state battery.\nFisker is positioning itself in a unique segment for those who want the most environmentally friendly EV. While this may be an early growth segment for EVs, it's difficult to estimate its eventual competitive advantage and the size of this environmentally-friendly market segment.\nThe Ocean is a crossover made of recycled metal and plastic with an expected base price of $37,499, and an expected lease of less than $400 a month. Fisker's plan is essentially a lease-only business model that lets customers keep a vehicle for years or return it at any time. It aims to source motors, batteries, and other components from technical partnerships with automakers and will outsource production from existing auto plants. Fisker is currently taking reservations at $250 for the Ocean. It also announced an agreement with Foxconn to jointly develop a vehicle pioneering a new market segment to be sold globally under the Fisker brand commencing in Q4 2023. at the end of 2022. Production will start at Magna Steyr's manufacturing facilities in Europe. At the end of February 2021, it had 12,467 cancellable reservations.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/924a617c90fc3276d7bdab8c64ebfdcf\" tg-width=\"744\" tg-height=\"389\">Fisker Ocean. Source: Fisker\nFisker went public using a SPAC (Spartan Energy). The original combination with SPAQ in October 2020 was valued at $2.9 billion with a cash investment of approximately $1 billion. The stock currently trades at approximately $21 per share, after reaching a high of $28.50, from the original price of $10, which is a market cap of $4.6 billion. Fisker projects $3.3 billion in revenue in 2023. It had almost $1 billion in cash at the end of 2020 and expected to use almost half of this in 2021: $250 million on operating expenses and $250 million in capital investments. If the Ocean is delayed into 2023, Fisker risks missing its revenue objective and will potentially need additional cash to complete development and launch.\nFaraday Future (PSAC)\nFaraday Future was originally established in May 2014 by Chinese businessman Jia Yueting. It is headquartered in Los Angeles and has offices in Silicon Valley, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu. Faraday Future also had a turbulent history. In 2016, it struggled financially, and in 2017 some key executives departed over a dispute about financial issues. They later founded Canoo.\nIn December 2018 the company announced layoffs due to a cash crunch and financial troubles. The company's founder Jia Yueting filed for personal bankruptcy in the United States' federal court in Delaware on October 14, 2019. Following Jia's personal bankruptcy, he decided to step down from his role as CEO of Faraday Future in order to assume a new position as the Chief Product and User Officer. He was replaced as CEO by Carsten Breitfeld, the former CEO at rival electric vehicle startup Byton.\nSomehow, Faraday was able to raise $2.3 billion in private funding over 5 rounds from a variety of investors. In early 2018, it received $1.5 billion in funding from an undisclosed investor from Hong Kong.\nFaraday's flagship product offering will be the FF 91, featuring 1,050 HP, 0-60 mph in less than 2.4 seconds, zero gravity seats with the largest 60-degree reclining angles, and a user experience designed to create a mobile, connected, and luxurious living space. The FF 91 is targeted to launch in 2022.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e38bfb3211c72bb73bc26f2ebe296fe\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"854\">FF 91. Source: Faraday Future\nIts strategic partners include one of China's top three OEMs and a critical Chinese city, which the company believes will help establish its presence in the Chinese vehicle market.\nFaraday Future plans several cars based on its Variable Platform Architecture. FF 91 is the first production vehicle and flagship model. Pricing will range between $120,000 and upwards of $200,000, which places it against formidable opponents. Faraday Future is already looking forward to expanding its range with a pair of smaller models named FF 81 and FF 71. The FF 81 is planned to be priced at $75,000 to 95,000 with a 2023 release. The FF 71 is planned to be priced at $45,000 to $65,000 with a planned release of 2024.\nThe Primary Manufacturing Facility for FF 91 is in Hanford, CA with contract manufacturing for future models in Gunsan, South Korea.\nFaraday Future is planning high-Level automation with a Level-3 capable system using a redundant safety architecture based on NVIDIA Xavier System-on-a-chip. It will be capable of highway auto-drive and hardware ready for advanced auto-drive. It is targeting full autonomous valet parking &amp; summon in any parking lot or structure. Eventually, it expects full auto-drive, including full 360˚ sensor coverage for advanced auto-drive &amp; auto-park features.\nIn January 2021, Faraday Future announced that the company would go public through a reverse merger with the special purpose acquisition company Property Solutions Acquisition Corp. (PSAC). The combined company will be valued at $3.4 billion. Faraday Future is expected to set up contract manufacturing operations in China through their partnership with Geely. Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn is also expected to serve as an additional strategic partner.\nFaraday Future projects $10.5 billion in revenue in 2024 and $21.5 billion in 2025. Revenue is expected to start in 2022 with the delivery of 2,400 vehicles for $504 million. Most likely these projections could prove to be optimistic. At a current stock price of approximately $12.80, it has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nLordstown Motors (RIDE)\nLordstown Motors based in Lordstown, Ohio, was originally founded in 2018 by Steve Burns, the former CEO of Workhorse Group. The company licensed technology from Workhorse in return for royalties and a 10% ownership. Lordstown is named after the famous GM Lordstown manufacturing plant, which it acquired in November 2019 in an unusual transaction. GM announced that it was closing the plant and was under a great deal of pressure for that decision. So, GM \"sold\" the plant to a company that was renamed Lordstown for an estimated $20 million that it loaned to the acquiring company. Subsequently, the sale was redefined to be part of a $75 million investment by GM, of which $50 million was an in-kind exchange for the plant.\nLordstown went public through the SPAC DiamondPeak Holdings Corp. in 2020. It currently has more than 400 employees.\nIts first product is the Lordstown Endurance, a full-sized EV pickup truck. Lordstown is positioning Endurance for the pickup fleet market segment. The expected price is $52,000+, and it claimed to have more than 100,000 pre-orders by January 2021. However, a recent research article published by a short seller claimed \"Our research has revealed that Lordstown's order book consists of fake or entirely non-binding orders, from customers that generally do not even have fleets of vehicles.\" Lordstown is disputing that article.\nIt believes the fleet pickup market segment is underserved with no current EV-focused competition. It estimates that the full-sized pick-up truck fleet market is 1.2 million vehicles per year in the U.S., but it's more fragmented than other truck fleets. Pickup \"fleets\" tend to be much smaller and local, so there may not be much of a market distinction for a small company buying several EV pickups from a traditional auto dealer. About half of the total U.S. pickup market is classified as fleet sales, meaning more than one.\nEven though Lordstown is targeting the commercial fleet market, it is a similar product to the Ford EV F-150. So I classify it in the consumer EV category. It is a class 2 vehicle. Lordstown also may enter the SUV market in the longer-term.\nThe Endurance will compete against future models from Rivian and Tesla, as well as Ford and GM in ICE pick-ups and their upcoming EV pick-ups. Ford plans on selling its EV F-150 in mid-2022. Initial production of the Endurance is expected in the second half of 2021, so it may have a short market advantage. Nevertheless, it forecasts selling 65,000 vehicles in 2023 and 107,000 in 2024. These estimates could be a large percentage of the EV pick-up market in those years.\nAt the SPAC merger, the implied valuation for Lordstown was $1.6 billion, including a $500 million PIPE and the $75 million by GM. Lordstown's financial projections appear to be aggressive. It projects to start shipping the Endurance in late 2021 with projected revenue in 2022 of $1.7 billion, increasing to $5.8 billion in 2024. Its stock price at approximately $13.60 values the company at a market cap of approximately $2.2 billion. The value of the company depends on the likelihood of achieving its projections.\nA fleet sales strategy makes sense for Lordstown since it would be too expensive to build a retail sales and service capability. However, it's not clear that this will become a distinct competitive advantage. Some small fleets may still prefer to buy their EV pickups from established local dealers with service capabilities.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nCanoo started as Evelozcity in 2017 and rebranded as Canoo in the spring of 2019. Canoo is a Los Angeles-based company that develops electric vehicles. It has over 350 employees. Canoo has designed a modular electric platform purpose-built to deliver maximum vehicle interior space, which is adaptable to support a wide range of vehicle applications for consumers and businesses. Canoo expects to launch its first consumer model in 2022, simply named the Canoo that will be available by subscription, followed shortly after by a multi-purpose delivery vehicle and a sports vehicle, each built off of the same underlying platform. Canoo went public using a SPAC (Hennessy Capital Acquisition) and now trades as GOEV.\nCanoo's all-electric skateboard-like platform is designed to support both consumer retail and commercial vehicle configurations. The EV leverages Canoo's flat skateboard architecture for a high level of usable interior space. Its commercial vehicle program, expected in 2023, addresses a projected $50B+ last-mile delivery market with an EV platform that maximizes cargo volume.\nHyundai Motor Group said it would jointly develop an electric vehicle platform with the company.\nCanoo's platform strategy is interesting. It could be used as an EV platform for custom fleets of delivery vehicles. It has no AV development, but it claims to be \"AV Ready\" which could be useful for AV companies wanting to build custom AV delivery fleets.\nIts all-electric multi-purpose delivery vehicle is expected to be priced starting at approximately $33,000. It is based on Canoo's proprietary electric platform and will be offered in two initial size variants, with others to follow. Limited availability will begin in 2022, with scaled production and launch planned for 2023. Customers can pre-order the multi-purpose delivery vehicle for a refundable deposit of $100 per vehicle\nIt plans to offer two multi-purpose delivery vehicles: the MPDV1 and the larger MPDV2. The first has a 200-foot cargo volume and a range of 130-200 miles. It offers more capacity than today's ICE delivery vehicles at an affordable price with urban mobility enabled by a space-efficient footprint. The vehicle is also designed to fit within many height-restricted areas like parking garages.\nThe MPDV2 has a cargo volume of 450 feet and a range of 90-190 miles. Its roof and step-in height enable individuals to easily walk-in the vehicle and accommodate a standing position while inside.\nThe original SPAC transaction provided approximately $600 million, with a pro forma equity value of approximately $2.4 billion. Like other SPAC mergers, its stock price has fluctuated. It currently trades at about $15.90 per share for a market cap of approximately $3.7 billion. Canoo projects $2.0 billion in revenue in 2025 from about $500 million in engineering services, $1.2 billion from its consumer vehicle subscriptions, and the remainder from its commercial program. Canoo expects revenue of more than $300 million in 2022 after the launch of its lifestyle consumer vehicle.\nSince its first products are aimed at consumers, as is most of its forecasted 2025 revenue, I categorize it primarily as a consumer EV company. However, I think the design of that Canoo vehicle may not attract enough customers. More importantly, its subscription service way of selling its EV to consumers is risky. I think it has more potential in the commercial market, however, a dual strategy (consumer and commercial) is challenging. I like its skateboard platform design and that could prove to be a competitive advantage.\nRivian\nAlthough not yet public, I include Rivian because it has plans for an IPO as soon as Sept 2021, although it could slip into 2022. There are rumors that the company is targeting a market valuation of approximately $50B. Rivian has already raised more than $8 billion to date from Amazon, Ford, T. Rowe Price, and others.\nRivian has developed and vertically integrated a connected electric platform that can be flexibly applied to a range of applications, including the company's adventure products, as well as B2B products such as the Amazon last-mile delivery vans. The company's initial products, the R1T and R1S, provide a combination of performance, off-road capability, and utility. These vehicles will be produced at Rivian's manufacturing plant in Normal, Ill., with customer deliveries expected to begin in summer 2021. The launch of the R1S three-row electric SUV will follow in August.\nAdditional lower-priced models are being planned. The expected R2 series would include at least two smaller electric vehicles to coincide with the smaller platform, then another platform for R3.\nCommercial Delivery EV Companies\nEV truck companies differ based on the type of truck they are developing. The technology and markets are very different, so I separate them into two categories. The first category includes commercial delivery vehicles.\nCompanies making EV delivery vehicles have some major advantages that could make them good investments. First, delivery vehicles typically travel less than 250 miles during a day, so they can be conveniently recharged overnight. Secondly, they are typically sold in large quantities to fleets. This means that building a retail sales infrastructure is not necessary. It only requires a small salesforce. In addition, maintenance can also be provided at the fleet's operational center, so not as many service centers are required.\nThe disadvantage in this market is that there are a relatively small number of customers that buy in large volumes, so if the EV manufacturer can't get enough large customers, they may not be able to stay in business. GM estimates the combined market opportunity for parcel and food delivery, as well as reverse logistics, in the U.S. will be more than $850 billion by 2025.\nThe commercial market is expected to be a major growth area for EVs. Other start-up automakers like Rivian as well as legacy automakers such as Ford, Daimler, and GM have announced plans to enter the segment. GM recently announced its BrightDrop ecosystem for commercial customers that includes an all-new electric delivery van, the EV600 available by the end of 2021, as well as an integrated autonomous pallet and related services.\nThis group of EV companies focuses primarily on commercial delivery. In general, these are in the light-duty trucks category, although it also includes some medium-duty trucks. This generally includes the following commercial truck classes:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 1: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 0-6,000 pounds or 0-2,722 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 2: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 6,001-10,000 pounds or 2,722-4,536 kilograms.1</li>\n <li>Class 3: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 10,001-14,000 pounds or 4,536-6,350 kilograms.</li>\n</ul>\nIt can also include somewhat larger medium-duty EV delivery trucks:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.</li>\n</ul>\nEV delivery trucks also have an advantage over ICE vehicles because they can have a greater delivery storage space. Smaller buses and transit vehicles are also included in this category.\nLast-mile package delivery is not an immediate-term autonomous vehicle opportunity because it requires a delivery person to be on the truck anyway.\nWorkhorse Group (WKHS)\nWorkhorse has been a public company for ten years. Originally AMP Electric Vehicles, it was established in 2007 as a developmental-stage vehicle electrification company, focusing on conversions. AMP Electric Vehicles went public in 2010 trading on the OTC market under the AMPD symbol. When the economic benefits of conversion became less certain, it pivoted away from passenger vehicles and began to focus on electrifying commercial vehicles. AMP acquired the Workhorse brand and the Workhorse custom chassis assembly plant in Union City. In March of 2013, AMP formally changed its name to Workhorse Group Incorporated.\nThe Company designs and builds a last-mile delivery electric vehicle. The C-Series EVs cover the larger size of commercial delivery vehicles in Classes 3-5. As part of its solutions, it also develops cloud-based, real-time telematics performance monitoring systems. It sells its vehicles to fleet customers directly and through its primary distributor, Ryder Systems. It is currently focused on bringing the C-Series electric delivery truck to market and fulfilling the existing backlog of orders.\nThe C-Series looks like a viable EV replacement for the 350,000 last-mile delivery vehicles sold in the U.S. annually. It recently announced an increased driving range from 100 miles to 160, which should open more market opportunities. It has a viable short-term go-to-market strategy selling fleets to delivery companies. It currently has test vehicles with UPS, DHL, FedEx, Amazon, and Walmart.\nWorkhorse recently lost out on the United States Postal Services Next Generation Delivery Vehicle project, however, it is in the process of challenging this decision. Additionally, its investment in Lordstown also provides an indirect investment opportunity. On November 7, 2019, the Company entered a transaction with Lordstown Motors to grant LMC a perpetual and worldwide license to certain intellectual property relating to its W-15 electric pickup truck platform and related technology in exchange for royalties, equity interest (approximately 10%) in LMC, and other considerations. This was a $320 million asset for Workhorse at the end of 2020.\nWorkhorse received a significant increase in orders in Q4/2020 but built just seven trucks in the fourth quarter due to production systems and supply chain issues. Workhorse plans to continue to take it slow, striving to build three of its composite-body battery-electric trucks a day in March with a plan to reach 10 trucks a day by the end of June. This makes its original 2021 goal of producing 1,800 trucks unlikely. It partnered with Hitachi and Hitachi Capital America (\"HCA\") to improve the Company's manufacturing, operational, and supply chain capabilities as well as to develop a national dealer network to support Workhorse's sales with vehicle financing options for both dealers and customers.\nWorkhorse has a market cap of approximately $1.9 billion. While Workhorse had ongoing revenue, unlike many other new EV companies, its revenue is still insignificant. It had a revenue of $1.4 million in 2020 and $377,000 in 2019. It has a backlog of over 8,000 vehicles but doesn't expect to be able to build many of those in 2021. It raised $270 million in capital over several financings, providing the Company with additional capital to build its backlog. It had cash of $215 million as of March 1, 2021. Because Workhorse is a traditional public company, it hasn't made long-term financial projections like SPAC-based companies.\nElectric Last Mile (FIII)\nElectric Last Mile, based in Troy Michigan, was founded by Jason Luo, former CEO of Ford China before it was acquired by China's Ningbo Joyson Electronic for $920 million in 2016, including James Taylor, former CEO of GM's Hummer brand and former CEO of electric car maker Karma Automotive. Taylor serves as the company's top executive with Luo as the company's chairman.\nThe company plans to launch a small electric delivery van (class 1-2), called the UD-1, in the third quarter of 2021, and then introduce an Urban Utility vehicle (Class 2-3) in 2022. These are expected to compete with Workhorse, Rivian, Canoo, as well as the Ford eTransit and the GMC BV1, none of which is expected to be a Class 1 vehicle.\nThe company says it has 30,000 preorders for its van, representing more than $1 billion in sales. Electric Last Miles vehicles will be based on Sokon's commercial van made in China through a joint venture with Dongfeng Automobile Co Ltd. in order to accelerate development time.\nElectric Last Mile (ELM) is expected to manufacture the vans in a former General Motors Co. Hummer plant in Mishawaka, Ind., that the company is acquiring from China's Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co. Ltd. The plant has the capacity to produce 100,000 vehicles annually with plans to build approximately 4,000 UD-1 vans by the end of 2021. The UD-1 has a starting price of $32,500 and a range of 150 miles. The battery for the vehicle is expected to be supplied by the Chinese battery company CATL.\nELM believes that it has a competitive advantage because its first vehicle, the ELM Urban Delivery, is scheduled to be available in 2021. It is based on a proven, existing platform developed and sold by Sokon Group in the Asian market, where there are 30,000 of these electric delivery vehicles driving 1.5 million miles every day. At the close of the business combination, ELM will be an independent, U.S. company producing electric vehicles in the U.S. with Sokon Group providing access to its know-how, parts supply, and field and service data.\nELM expects that the Urban Delivery vehicle will be the first electric delivery vehicle coming to market in the class 1 category (GVW of 6,000 lbs or less) in the U.S. It will also have 35% more carrying volume compared to similar ICE delivery vehicles, a critical part of the value proposition. It also anticipates that its price and greater carrying volume will allow it to take market share from the class 2 category of vehicles as well.\nIts crossover product portfolio strategy targets commercial delivery vehicles spanning from class 1 to class 3, which represents over 80% of the last mile market.\nELM anticipates $122 million in revenue in 2021, rapidly increasing to $3 billion in 2025. The price of FIII stock increased immediately following its announcement with Electric Last Mile, rising more than 40% to $14.50, but now it has dropped closer to the original deal price to $10.25 for a market cap of approximately $1.5 billion.\nGreenPower Motor Company (GP)\nGreenPower Motor Company Inc. is a Canadian battery-electric bus manufacturer with multiple models of high- and low-floor vehicles, including transit buses, school buses, and shuttles. GreenPower offers commercial vehicles for delivery, public transit, schools, vanpooling, micro-transit, shuttles, and is developing a capability of autonomous operation. It went public on August 28, 2020.\nIn 2014 GreenPower launched its first purpose-built, battery-electric bus, the EV350, 40-foot transit bus. GreenPower received its first order in 2017 for ten EV350s from the City of Porterville, California.\nGreenPower's electric buses are purpose-built and designed to be all-electric, allowing it to put the battery and propulsion system in optimized locations that provide weight and structural advantages. Its primary EV is the EV Star with more than 120 vehicles delivered. It comes in several variations:\n<ul>\n <li>EV Star - Up to 19 passengers</li>\n <li>EV Star Plus - Up to 24 passengers</li>\n <li>EV Star ADA - Passenger and curbside lift for ADA</li>\n <li>EV Star Cargo - 5,000 pounds of load</li>\n <li>EV Star Cargo Plus - 570 cubic feet of cargo space.</li>\n</ul>\nIts EV school bus seats up to 90 students and has a range of up to 150 miles.\nGreenPower had revenue of $13.5 million in 2020 It has about $21 million in cash. It's an interesting alternative since it is already shipping EVs, has revenue, and also has a lower market cap of less than $1 billion. Since it did a traditional IPO, it hasn't published longer-term financial forecasts.\nArrival (CIIC)\nArrival was founded in 2015 in London to make a variety of commercial electric vehicles. It has approximately 1,200 employees across 11 cities in 8 countries. In November 2020, Arrival and the SPAC CIIG entered into a business combination agreement with an implied valuation of $5.39 billion.\nArrival plans on releasing four commercial EVs over the next few years.\n<ul>\n <li>Q4/2021: An electric bus for 8-125 passengers and a range of 240-400km</li>\n <li>Q3/2022: An electric delivery van with a payload of 975-2,000kg and a range of 150-340km</li>\n <li>2022: A larger electric van with a payload of 4,000 kg and a range of 190-400km</li>\n <li>2023: a small vehicle platform with a range of 100-300km.</li>\n</ul>\nThis mix provides a nice diversified portfolio of EVs. Arrival claims to have received orders from UPS for 10,000 vans. It plans a unique flexible manufacturing approach using micro-factories with each projected to manufacture 10,000 vans per year. All of its vehicles use a modular skateboard electric platform.\nArrival ambitiously projects $14.1 billion in revenue in 2024. Half of that revenue is expected from delivery vans, 22% from buses, and the rest from the large van and its small vehicle platform. With CIIC's stock price at $24.80 per share, Arrival's current market cap is relatively high at approximately $15.0 billion. Justifying its market cap depends on its ability to release, sell, and produce its four commercial EVs.\nProterra (ACTC)\nProterra is a commercial electric vehicle company with over a decade of production experience. The Company has designed an end-to-end, flexible technology platform that claims to deliver higher performance and a low total cost of ownership to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end customers.\nProterra, Inc., was originally founded in Golden, Colorado, by Dale Hill in 2004. Later the company wanted to take the lead in creating zero-emission, U.S.-based transit buses. In 2010 it moved its manufacturing plant from Golden, Colorado to Greenville, South Carolina. In 2015, Proterra was awarded a $3 million grant from the California Energy Commission to fund the design, development, and construction of the company's battery-electric transit bus manufacturing line in the City of Industry, California. It moved its headquarters from Greenville, South Carolina, to Burlingame, California, in October 2015. Proterra raised more than $600 million in funding.\nIt is going public through the SPAC ArcLight (ACTC) with a pro forma valuation of $1.6 billion. Upon completion of the transaction, Proterra expects to have up to $825 million in cash to fund growth initiatives, including R&amp;D and the expansion of its next-generation battery program.\nProterra has three complementary businesses:\n<ul>\n <li>Proterra Powered: Delivering battery systems and electrification solutions to commercial vehicle manufacturers</li>\n <li>Proterra Transit:Providing an electric transit bus OEMs</li>\n <li>Proterra Energy:Offering turnkey charging and energy management solutions.</li>\n</ul>\nThe company's battery systems have been proven in more than 16 million service miles driven by its fleet of transit vehicles and validated through partnerships with commercial vehicle OEMs. Proterra has produced and delivered more than 300 megawatt-hours of battery systems, more than 550 heavy-duty electric transit buses, and installed 54 megawatts of charging systems.\nProterra expected $193 million of revenue in 2020, with an estimated $750 million in existing orders and backlog. It projects $2.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with about 1/3 coming from its Transit business, and 2/3 From Powered &amp; Energy. At ACTC's current stock price of $17.85, Proterra has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nRivian\nRivian (see earlier description in consumer retail) will also compete in the commercial delivery market. It has been working with Amazon (a major investor) to build large electric delivery vans for Prime. Developed specifically for Amazon, a small fleet of Prime vans is on the road now, testing deliveries to customers and gathering feedback. In late fall, it could grow to a large fleet as Rivian ramps up the volume.\nThe EV range of 150 miles is tailored to Amazon's use cycle to optimize the size, weight, and cost of the commercial vehicle. Rivian has three sizes of batteries, but Amazon is starting with just one of them.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nSee the previous summary under consumer retail EV.\nMedium and Long-Haul Trucking EV Companies\nCompanies developing medium- and long-haul EV trucks face a more difficult challenge with battery range. These trucks haul much more weight than commercial delivery vehicles and because they are designed for long distances, they can't stop every 200-300 miles for recharging.\nFor this reason, many of these companies are using unique hybrid technologies for their trucks. The EV trucks in this category are primarily heavy-duty but also include some medium-duty trucks and specialty vehicles. A couple of the companies focus on retrofitting trucks to be electric.\nMedium-Duty Trucks\nThe medium-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 4, 5, and 6:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 6: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 19,501-26,000 pounds or 8,846-11,793 kilograms.1</li>\n</ul>\nHeavy-Duty Trucks\nThe heavy-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 7 and 8:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 7: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 26,001 to 33,000 pounds or 11,794-14,969 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 8: This class of trucks has a GVWR of greater than 33,001 pounds or 14,969 kilograms and includes all tractor-trailers.</li>\n</ul>\nThe Tesla Semi is a battery vehicle planned for a range of 300 or 500 miles and a speed of 60 MPH with 80,000 lbs of cargo. Tesla plans to start shipping the Semi later this year when it expects to have sufficient cell volume to meet its needs with the production of its 4680 battery pack.\nNikola(NASDAQ:NKLA)\nNikola has been a very controversial company. Founded in 2015, it originally had two different strategies. Its primary strategy is to lease fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) Class-8 heavy trucks and provide the refueling infrastructure to corporate customers. Its second strategy was to develop the Badger EV truck using GM technology.\nNikola originally merged with a SPAC to go public, at an enterprise value of approximately $3.3 billion. On June 6th, 2020, its market cap jumped to more than $30 billion, then later it dropped because of problems with its originally planned deal with GM.\nNikola originally expected a deal with General Motors that included the production of the Nikola Badger EV pickup truck. The proposed arrangement was that GM would take a $2 billion equity stake in Nikola and in return would engineer and produce the Badger. In November 2020, GM and Nikola scrapped the original arrangement. Now it appears that GM will supply Nikola with only its Hydrotec hydrogen fuel-cell technology to integrate into the EV manufacturer's commercial class 7 and class 8 zero-emission semi-trucks. So, the Badger is probably dead.\nNikola now sees semi-trucks as the company's \"core business\" and fuel cells as an increasingly important segment of the semi-truck market thanks to their efficiency in weight and consumption. It expects to begin testing by the end of 2021.\nIt has received pre-orders from Anheuser-Busch and a few other companies, but it doesn't expect deliveries until 2023. Hydrogen fueling stations are key to its strategy, both providing a source of revenue and necessary fueling infrastructure for the trucks to operate, but they also cost a lot. In its March 2020 investor deck, Nikola said a single station capable of fueling 210 trucks a day would cost $16.6 million. Its initial planned network of 700 stations would cost roughly $11.6 billion.\nNikola was also accused of misrepresentation, and its executive chairman and founder stepped down.\nAt the time of the SPAC merger, it projected an optimistic forecast of more than $3 billion in revenue by 2024, with a net income of $145 million. Most of that revenue was expected to come from its Badger truck, which is no longer in the plans. Yet its market cap is still almost $6 billion.\nHyliion (HYLN)\nHyliion, founded in 2015 in Austin, went public in October 2020 through the SPAC Tortoise Acquisition Corp. (SHLL). In March 2019, automotive parts manufacturer Dana Inc. made an equity investment into Hyliion, and together they are manufacturing and marketing Class 8 EVs to Dana's customers, including Volvo, Navistar, and Peterbilt.\nHyliion's strategy is unique, and a very different strategy from Nikola. Essentially it generates electricity onboard the truck using compressed natural gas (CNG). This should be a benefit for longer-range trucking. Hyliion's Hypertruck concept involves an all-electric drivetrain utilizing Dana's electric motor, inverter, and axle technologies. The truck's batteries are fueled by onboard tanks of CNG. With some 700 CNG stations already operating nationwide, it believes that there no need to build out expensive superchargers or hydrogen infrastructure.\nKuwait-based logistics company, Agility, has already placed an order for 1,000 Hypertrucks with initial deliveries targeted in 2022. Combined with a fully electric drivetrain and a natural gas-powered onboard generator to recharge the battery, the Hypertruck ERX will provide more than 1,000 miles of range.\nHyliion will eventually compete with Nikola (FCEV) and the Tesla battery-based Semi, but it plans to have a longer range and lower operating costs. Its HyperTruck ERX is expected to be available in 2021. It also has a hybrid-electric truck.\nThe combination with SHLL had an estimated market cap of about $1.5 billion, with approximately $530 million going to the company, including a $325 million fully committed PIPE. At approximately $13.50 per share, its current market cap is approximately $2.2 billion, significantly down from its peak. Hyliion projects $2 billion in revenue in 2024, which it claims is only about 2% of the addressable market.\nXL Fleet (XL)\nXL Fleet is a 10-year old company that went public through the SPAC Pivotal. XL is different because it provides fleet electrification modifications for ICE trucks across a wide range of vehicle classes (class 2-5) and types. It has over 200 of the largest commercial and municipal fleets as customers, with more than 3,200 XL systems deployed and over 130 million miles driven by customers to date. XL's customer base includes FedEx, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Verizon, the City of Boston, Seattle Fire Department, Yale University, and Harvard University.\nXL's business model is essentially retrofitting existing trucks to be hybrids and then later expanding into fully electric truck conversions. It claims to be creating a fully integrated platform for this. It remains to be seen if the retrofitting business will continue to grow or will it diminish when more trucks are designed and manufactured with EV capabilities.\nUnlike some other EV companies that have no revenue yet because they are still developing products, XL is more of a small company doing low-volume retrofits. It had $7.2 million in revenue in 2019, $21 million in 2020, and estimates $76 million in 2021, but it forecasts $1.3 billion in revenue in 2024 in its investor presentation. It plans to do this by expanding its product line from hybrid to plug-in hybrid to fully electric across a broader range of trucks. It claims to have a $220 million sales pipeline for the next 12 months.\nShort-seller, Muddy Waters, claimed after talking to former XL Fleet employees, that it believed the company significantly exaggerated its order backlog, that the return on investment for the company's products was likely negative, and that it would not be able to compete with big car makers on electrification. The company thoroughly refuted these claims.\nThe original enterprise valuation was approximately $1.4 billion at a $10 share price for the merger. Its price jumped by about 35% but has since gone back down to $12.40 for a market cap of about $1.8 billion. Although XL Fleet has revenue and other EV companies don't, this may not be an advantage. It appears to be a small company for many years that has gone public at a high valuation with grand plans. The risks are in its ability to make a jump from $76 million in 2021 to $1.3 billion in 2024, as well as the question about retrofitting being replaced by new EV trucks by then.\nXos (NGAC)\nXos Trucks specializes in the field of manufacturing fully electric commercial vehicles. It features a software platform that is designed to accommodate an extensive variety of medium-duty bodies, wheelbase, and range requirements up to 200 miles. It was founded in 2016 and headquartered in North Hollywood, California. It received $20 million of investment in 2020 and now is going public through a merger with the SPAC ExtGen Acquisition Corporation (NGAC) at an estimated proforma value of $1.965 billion.\nIts focus is on medium- and heavy-duty last mile and return-to-base segments (class 5/6, class 6/7, and class 7/8) commercial fleets and specialty vehicles. Some vehicles are currently in production and in regular on-road operations with key fleet customers, and it claimed 6,000 unit orders in backlog.\nIts MD-platform is for classes 5-6 for pickup and delivery. Its HD X-Platform is an adaptable chassis for highway, vocational, and severe work conditions. Its market is for customers with highly predictable routes that allow for batteries designed for a more limited range. A significantly larger frame and smaller battery pack allow for reduced density.\nXos has a bundled all-in-one offering that allows fleets to access all the tools and services they need to go electric with a single point of contact at a fixed monthly expense.\nXos had $3 million in revenue in 2020 and estimates $14 million in 2021. However, it forecasts $5.2 billion in revenue in 2025. At the current stock price of $10.30, its market cap is approximately $2 billion, about the same as its original SPAC transaction.\nLion Electric (NGA)\nLion Electric is a Canadian company founded by Marc Bédard in 2008. Its focus is to be a leader in designing, developing, and manufacturing purpose-built urban electric vehicles; vehicles that are specifically designed as delivery trucks, refuse trucks, bucket trucks, moving trucks, school buses, and shuttle buses. It has over 300 all-electric vehicles on the road today.\nIn November 2020, it announced that it was going public through the SPAC NGA. The transaction had an estimated pro forma enterprise value of $1.5 billion.\nIt plans on seven new truck models and one new school bus, for a total of 15 all-electric vehicles, representing a full line-up from class 5 to class 8 electric trucks and a full line-up of electric school buses. Its vehicles are produced at its existing manufacturing plant, which has the capacity for the production of up to 2,500 vehicles per year. It intends to open a new plant in the U.S. capable of delivering over 20,000 Lion trucks and buses per year by 2022.\nIts all-electric class 6 and class 8 commercial urban trucks combine power, comfort, and modern technology. Custom-built chassis and cabin designed specifically for an all-electric heavy-duty vehicle. The LionC is an all-electric Type C school bus manufactured in North America. The body and chassis were specifically designed to deliver optimal performance. The LionM is an all-electric midi/minibus that meets paratransit and public transportation requirements. Created and designed specifically for the paratransit market, the is spacious and offers unique features that provide enhanced security and accessibility to the end-users.\nLion Electric had $29 million in revenue in 2020 and expects $204 million in 2021. It forecasts revenue to jump to $3.6 billion a few years later in 2024. Its current market cap is approximately $3.6 billion based on its current stock price of $18.33.\nLightning eMotors (GIK)\nLightning eMotors, formerly Lightning Systems, was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Loveland, Colorado. It provides fleet electrification for familiar commercial vehicle platforms by retrofitting them with its electric powertrains. Lightning eMotors produces electric fleet medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including delivery trucks, shuttle buses, passenger vans, ambulances, bucket trucks, chassis-cab models, and city transit buses. It focuses on urban commercial zero-emission vehicles with a full range of class 3 through class 7 battery-electric and fuel-cell electric vehicles.\nLighting eMotors helps commercial fleets achieve their sustainability goals by offering zero-emission battery-electric vans, trucks, and buses based on familiar, proven vehicles from manufacturers such as Ford and GM. It works with customers, to help them identify their unique commercial electric vehicle, charging, and grant support needs.\nThe Lightning products include integrated all-electric powertrains for the Ford Transit 350HD passenger and cargo vans, Ford E-450 shuttle bus and cutaway models, Ford F-59 step/food van, Ford F-550 cargo trucks and buses, Chevrolet 6500XD Low Cab Forward model, and 30-foot, 35-foot, and 40-foot transit buses.\nLightning has 120 vehicles on the road, and 1,500 vehicles already on order from customers. In addition to making vehicles and powertrains, Lightning also provides a full suite of charging solutions for customers.\nThe deal with GIK has an enterprise value of $650 million, although there is also an Earnout of 20.0% of total pro forma shares outstanding to Lightning eMotors shareholders if the stock crosses certain price thresholds.\nAt the current price, of $11.73, GIK has a market cap of approximately $1 billion, a little more than the original transaction valuation. Similar to XL Fleet, Lightning has the risk that retrofitting may only be an interim business opportunity until more EV trucks are produced.\nPublic Chinese EV Companies\nChina will be the biggest EV market opportunity, and EV start-ups may do better there because there isn't as much entrenched competition from domestic auto companies. China is already the largest EV market in the world, with almost a million EVs sold in 2019. Its EV market represents almost half of the global EV sales volume and is much larger than the U.S. market.\nThe Chinese government has ambitions to become a global leader in new energy vehicles. Soon after the coronavirus outbreak subsided within the country, Chinese authorities announced new policies to support the auto and electric vehicle industries.\nThese Chinese companies are traded through American depository shares (ADS) that contain certain risks. There are financial reporting and transparency risks with these companies, and on top of that, the newer companies are being classified as \"emerging growth\" companies that are already exempt from certain transparency requirements set out in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Like the previous EV stock, these stocks have also been very volatile.\nIn addition to legacy auto manufacturers like BYD, there are also three Chinese EV companies that are publicly traded through American depositary shares.\nBYD Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:BYDDY)\nBYD, which means build your dreams, is the automotive subsidiary of the Chinese multinational BYD Co Ltd. It was founded in January 2003, following BYD Company's acquisition of Tsinchuan Automobile Company. The company produces automobiles, buses, electric bicycles, forklifts, rechargeable batteries, and trucks. The current model range of automobiles includes electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and petrol-engined vehicles. Thirteen years ago, on the advice of his famously skeptical lieutenant, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett made a $232 million investment in BYD, a relatively unknown Chinese car company.\nBy parlaying BYD's rechargeable battery technology into a fast-growing carmaking operation, it gained a foothold in the fledgling electric vehicle market, building longer-lasting batteries and cheaper vehicles than American and Japanese manufacturers were managing to do at the time. In BYD, Buffett and Munger believed they had found a company with a shot at one day becoming the largest player in a global automobile market that was inevitably going electric.\nBYD's start to 2021 was strong with 19,871 plug-in electric cars sold in January in China, including hybrid plug-ins. That was a big increase over 2020 but not as much as 2019.\nLI Auto (LI)\nLixiang, formerly known as Chehejia (\"Car and Home\"), was founded in 2015 and went public in the U.S. on July 30th, 2020. It is a Beijing-based electric-vehicle startup with vertically integrated manufacturing. It designs, researches, manufactures, sells, and offers services featuring a few models of electric vehicles.\nThe company's SUVs are hybrids of a sort. They use electric motors (one on the front axle and one on the rear), but those motors are powered by a combination of a 40.5kWh battery packanda 1.2-liter turbocharged engine paired to a 45-liter fuel tank and a 100kW electric generator, which generates power for the battery pack in real-time. The idea is that the car can be driven for about 100 miles on battery power alone, but it has a total range of nearly 500 miles when leveraging the combustion engine generator.\nThe Company's primary product is an SUV under its brand Li ONE. It also sells peripheral products and provides related services, such as charging stalls, vehicle internet connection services, and extended lifetime warranties. Li Auto is looking to sell a variety of SUVs built on its hybrid technology that range from around $21,000 to about $70,000. The company started shipping its first model in late 2019. It's a midsize SUV is well-appointed and has lots of touchscreens and technology. A full-size premium version is planned for release in 2022.\nDeliveries of Li ONEs were 14,464 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a 67.0% quarter-over-quarter increase and setting a new quarterly record. Deliveries for the full year 2020 reached 32,624 vehicles. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $635 million.\nLI auto went public on July 30th, 2020, raising $1.1 billion at an initial price of $15.50 per share but quickly reached almost $24. It is currently valued at approximately $37 billion at a price of approximately $25.72 per share.\nXPeng (XPEV)\nXiaopeng (XPeng) Motors is a Chinese electric vehicle and technology company that designs and manufactures smart cars. It was founded in 2015 and went public on August 27, 2020, using American depository shares, raising about $1 billion. To date, it has raised about $2.6 billion.\nXPeng aims its EVs at technology-savvy middle-class Chinese consumers, with prices ranging from $22,000 to $45,000 after government subsidies. In some ways, it is a Tesla knock-off at a much lower price. XPeng started production of the G3 in November 2018, and as of July 31, 2020, delivered 18,741. It started production of the P7 and began delivery in May 2020, and as of July 31, 2020, it had delivered 1,966 EVs. The P7 has a range of more than 400 miles. It plans to launch a third Smart EV, a sedan, in 2021. The G3 was among the top-three best-selling electric SUVs in China in 2019.\nXPeng is interesting because it has a platform strategy and is moving aggressively into autonomous driving. It uses a platform strategy to expand product offerings by launching one Smart EV model each year to broaden the addressable market. It builds new models on two highly flexible Smart EV platforms, called David and Edward, respectively. The David platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,600 millimeters to 2,800 millimeters, and the Edward platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,800 millimeters to 3,100 millimeters. It also adopted a platform approach for software systems.\nXPeng claims to be developing an autonomous driving capability for its EVs. The P7 is the first production vehicle to feature the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Xavier system-on-a-chip (SoC) autonomous driving platform. The company's Smart Electric Platform Architecture (SEPA) runs on 2 chips - NVIDIA for the XPILOT and Qualcomm's Snapdragon™ 820A for intelligent services and infotainment, including cameras inside and outside, radars, HD-map, and ultrasonic sensors. Like Tesla, it claims it can create sufficiently-autonomous driving without lidar.\nTo enhance brand recognition and allow more people to experience its Smart EVs, it deployed a small number of Smart EVs in a ride-hailing service in Guangzhou on a trial basis, but it has no current plan to scale up a ride-hailing service.\nXpeng sees first-quarter 2021 deliveries rising 450% year-over-year to 12,500 vehicles. Revenues are expected to increase 533% from a year ago. The company didn't provide bottom-line estimates for the quarter, but will likely post another net loss as it ramps up manufacturing, invests in R&amp;D, and builds out a new manufacturing plant set to open in 2022.\nXpeng reported selling 12,964 vehicles in Q4 2020, up 303% from a year ago. It delivered a total of 27,041 vehicles in 2020, up 112%. It makes the P7 sedan, a rival to the made-in-China Tesla Model 3, and the small G3 SUV.\nThe stock opened on August 27, 2020 at a price of $15 and a valuation of $11 billion, but its stock jumped more than 40% shortly after. Its current valuation is about $35 billion at a stock price of approximately $36.13 per share. It had about $300 million in revenue in 2019 with a loss of about $500 million.\nNio (NIO)\nUnlike previous companies, Nio has been a public company for some time. It originally went public in the U.S. back in September of 2018, selling IPO shares at $6.26 and raising $1 billion.\nNio's IPO was far from smooth. After going public at $6.26 per share, it traded down to nearly $1. Then in the middle of the coronavirus outbreak, Nio received a much-needed investment of $1 billion from investors, including state-backed entities.\nNio designs, jointly manufactures, and sells smart and connected premium electric vehicles, attempting to develop next-generation technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving, and artificial intelligence. Joint manufacturing means that it uses a state-owned contract manufacturer to build its cars.\nNio plans to provide customers with comprehensive, convenient, and innovative charging solutions and other user-centric services. It began deliveries of the ES8, a 7-seater high-performance premium electric SUV in China in June 2018, and its variant, the six-seater ES8, in March 2019. Nio officially launched the ES6, a 5-seater high-performance premium electric SUV, in December 2018 and began deliveries in June 2019. It officially launched the EC6, a 5-seater smart premium electric Coupe SUV, in December 2019 with deliveries in 2020.\nNio sold 17,353 EVs in Q4/2020 and 43,728 for the year. It warned a shortage in chips and batteries will force a production slowdown to 7,500 a month in Q2 from 10,000 vehicles a month in February.\nNio currently trades at more than $43 per share, including a big jump recently, for a valuation of approximately $48 billion. It had revenue of $2.3 billion in 2019 for a loss of $3.8 billion.\nSummary\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this should provide exciting new investment opportunities. However, the investment terrain is complex. There are dozens of new start-ups where the public can now invest that were previously exclusively venture capital investment opportunities. Many of these are following different roads to success. There are legacy auto manufacturers that could prosper or get destroyed in this transition. There are some exciting new EV company opportunities in China. And then there is Tesla.\nThis EV roadmap is intended to help investors explore different roads to investment by explaining the basic strategies for these EV companies. These roads can have different opportunities and risks, and the roadmap helps to frame these. Above all, valuation is an overriding risk that is highlighted throughout this article.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>New Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNew Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-19 14:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.\nLast October, I wrote a popular article providing...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车","01211":"比亚迪股份","NKLA":"Nikola Corporation","LI":"理想汽车","GP":"GreenPower Motor Company Inc.","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","GOEV":"Canoo Inc.","WKHS":"Workhorse Group, Inc.","F":"福特汽车","002594":"比亚迪","TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来","FSR":"菲斯克","HYLN":"Hyliion Holdings Corp."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1196402560","content_text":"Summary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.\nLast October, I wrote a popular article providing a roadmap for investing in electric vehicles, but since then, so much has changed: new entrants, new strategies, fluctuating valuations, etc.\nSo, I updated and greatly expanded the previous EV investment roadmap.\nThis update includes a deeper look at valuations for 23 EV companies with revenue projections, when available.\nIt also classifies these EV companies into their primary market categories and summarizes their different strategies.\n\nPhoto by Sven Loeffler/iStock via Getty Images\nMy article Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap published five months ago, was popular, and some followers have requested an update. Many new EV companies entered the market, most of them through SPACs. Valuations fluctuated wildly, and there has been a great deal of publicity around these companies.\nThis new updated EV investment roadmap is greatly expanded. In addition to updating the strategies and progress of companies previously discussed, I expanded the number of companies covered. This article also groups EV companies into their primary markets, enabling better comparisons and evaluation of market opportunities. In addition, it includes a comparative valuation chart showing every company's market cap with a comparison to projected revenue, where possible. This takes advantage (good or bad) of looking at the long-term revenue forecasts provided in SPAC mergers that public companies can't make.\nIn addition to the EV manufacturers discussed here, there are also EV investment opportunities in charging station companies, battery manufacturers, and battery materials companies. These were covered in the original roadmap and may also be updated in a later article.\nApproximately 2 million EVs were sold in 2019, and although the number declined along with all auto sales in 2020, it is forecasted to increase in 2021 and reach 8-10 million by 2025. Some forecast that EV sales will be greater than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2030, or even earlier. The automobile market appears to be moving toward a historical transformation, and exceptional investment gains can be made by anticipating new emerging industries and investing in the eventual winners of those new industries. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)are obvious examples. Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to create a new emerging industry.\nThere are also significant risks. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to be released in the next three years, which will drive rapid growth in EV sales. However, the expected sales from these new models, as well as the increasing expectations from Tesla, most likely exceed the total projected market. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the companies covered here won't exist five years from now. It reminds me of the internet bubble of the late 1990s when scores of internet-based companies went public with little or no revenue. Almost all of these failed within three years -- however, a couple, including Amazon, went on to enormous success.\nEVs provide a major new investment opportunity with high risks. To succeed, you need to have a clear EV investment roadmap.\nSo, how can you invest in this new emerging market? The EV landscape is complex and investment opportunities are varied. While Tesla is the unquestioned leader in EVs, some consider it overvalued and unlikely to show exceptional returns to new investors. The current U.S. legacy automakers are committed to introducing many new EVs in the next few years, and they have some entrenched advantages with volume manufacturing capabilities, a dealer infrastructure, and loyal customers. There are exciting new EV start-ups in the U.S. that have come public this year, mostly through Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), and there are several interesting publicly traded Chinese EV manufacturers.\nThis new roadmap for EV investment classifies companies into three primary markets segments:\n\nTheConsumer Retailsegment includes EVs sold to consumers individually, such as SUVs, pickup trucks, sedans, etc.\nTheCommercial Deliverysegment includes local delivery EV vans and trucks sold to fleets.\nTheMedium- and Long-Haul Truckingsegment includes heavier Class 4 - Class 8 trucks, as well as special industrial vehicles.\n\nIn addition, it categorizesLegacy ManufacturersandChinese EV Companies. This enables investors to evaluate investment opportunities by considering unique opportunities within each market segment.\nThere is an enormous amount of investment optimism for EVs, and retail investors have been aggressively buying into EV stocks with seemingly no regard for valuation. Then there is the additional challenge of valuing companies with no revenue, especially those coming public through SPACs. So, valuation is an important investment consideration.\nSo let's start by looking at an overview of comparative EV valuations.\nEV Investment Valuation Overview\nThe following chart summarizes valuations for 23 EV companies, including several legacy companies. For SPACs, market cap estimates are computed using the pro forma number of shares at closing, otherwise using the valuation of the SPAC prior to closing drastically underestimates the valuation, which may be misleading to novice investors. Price/Sales ratios (market cap divided by revenue) are used to compare valuations. As a benchmark, current P/S ratios vary. For example, auto and truck companies have a ratio of 2.7X. Software companies have the highest ratios of over 10X.\nIn the chart, companies that currently have revenue show current P/S ratios. Where projections are available, projected P/S ratios are computed. A note of caution, however. Many of the EV companies came public through SPACs and published their projections (which public companies cannot do), and many of these are likely to prove unrealistic.\nAll of the longer-term revenue projections come from the company (C) forecasts with a SPAC. Some of these may turn out to be accurate, not many are most likely unrealistic. Some, like Lucid, Faraday, and Arrival forecast hitting more than $10 billion in revenue in a few years, when it took Tesla more than 10. Things are different now and they might achieve these, but they could also find that it will take longer to complete development, ramp up production, and create enough customer demand. Many companies may also find that there will be significant capital requirements to achieve this type of growth, and shareholders will be diluted.\n\nTesla, the \"gold standard\" in EVs, has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, which many people believe is overvalued. Its market cap is approximately 20X 2020 revenue and 10X estimated 2022 revenue.\nTesla (TSLA)\nIn the U.S., and to a lesser extent in China, Tesla is the dominant EV provider. It has approximately 60% of the U.S. EV market and about 20% of the market in China. I own a Tesla and love it, but an investment in Tesla stock requires getting comfortable with its valuation. Tesla has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, although declining lately, which some consider still overvalued while others see upside potential.\nThe investment opportunity with Tesla is based on the expectation that it will continue to dominate the EV market, or at least maintain significant market share, despite much greater competition from the expected introduction of hundreds of new EV models in the next few years.\nThere is a great deal already published about Tesla, so I'll move on.\nLegacy Automakers\nSome people think that the legacy automakers will simply fade away. Historically, that was the case in some other industries, but it is not going to happen to most automakers. They are not standing still waiting to become obsolete. Most have aggressive strategies to replace ICE vehicles with EVs. GM plans to invest $27 billion and build and launch as many as 30 new EV models by 2025. Ford plans to invest $29 billion in EVs by 2025 and launch as many as 16 EVs in the next two years. Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY)has also committed billions to develop new EVs.\nThe competitive advantage that legacy automakers have in selling their new EVs is their dealer network. Will new EV customers prefer to continue going to their regular auto dealer to buy their new EV?\nAlmost all legacy automakers worldwide are developing and launching EVs including Volkswagen, Peugeot, Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi, Hyundai/Kia. Let's look a little more closely at GM and Ford as the leaders in the U.S.\nGeneral Motors (GM)\nGM has committed to introducing 20 new electric vehicles by 2023, including EVs across Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC, and Buick. It recently announced that it has already sold out the first-year production of its Hummer electric pickup. By mid-decade, it expects to sell a million EVs per year in its two largest markets: North America and China. As a reference point, Tesla reported deliveries of 367,500 vehicles globally in 2019.\nGM has a solid platform strategy for its EVs. It plans on building its EVs using five interchangeable drive units and three different motors from its Ultium Drive System platform. Ultium energy options range from 50 to 200 kWh, which could enable an estimated range of up to 400 miles. Most of its EVs will have 400-volt battery packs and up to 200 kW fast-charging capability while the truck platform will have 800-volt battery packs and 350 kW fast-charging capabilities.\nThe key building blocks of the Ultium battery system are large-scale, high-energy cells. Engineered in partnership with LG Energy Solutions, they use both advanced chemistry and a smart cell design that's optimized for a broad portfolio of EVs. GM engineers and scientists are actively researching and testing new elements in battery chemistry to lower costs and improve charge times. Ultium can contain either vertically- or horizontally-stacked cells to integrate into vehicle design: vertically for trucks, SUVs, and crossovers, or horizontally for cars and performance vehicles. As new chemistry is developed and becomes available, the battery management system could digitally update the modules.\nGM also has other EV opportunities with its BrightDrop commercial EV service and its Cruise subsidiary. BrightDrop will not just sell delivery EVs, it will provide an entire service platform for commercial delivery customers. Its set of electric delivery vehicles starts with the EV600 and includes the BrightDrop EP1, a pod-like electric pallet. SeeGeneral Motors' Aggressive EV/AV Strategies May Payoff Big.\nWith its highest stock price of $61.65, GM's current market cap is approximately $89 billion, increasing primarily because of its progress with EVs. This approximately 3X valuation in 2018, but still only 13% of Tesla.\nFord (F)\nFord is also investing heavily in EVs. It just introduced the Mustang Mach-E, a battery-powered crossover with sports car styling, and plans to introduce an all-electric version of its best-selling F-150 pickup later this year. Also, planned is an electric edition of the full-size Transit van, which has been popular in the commercial delivery market. Ford has confirmed plans to build a luxury Lincoln crossover on a battery-powered platform provided by Rivian. The automaker also plans to introduce two new midsize electric crossovers, one each for the Ford and Lincoln brands by 2023.\nMustang Mach-E. Source: Ford\nFord's market cap is approximately $51 billion, twice its previous market cap, and also increasing.\nConsumer Retail EV Companies\nThe consumer retail market has some unique characteristics for new EV companies. Sales are made individually, not in fleets. This diversifies the risk upon launch because only a sufficient number of customers need to be attracted to the new EV. A wave of popularity can provide terrific momentum.\nHowever, the lack of a dealer network can be an impediment. Selling EVs directly to consumers instead of through dealers is prohibited in most states. By law, auto manufacturers can't compete with franchised dealers. These are laws that go back many decades to protect dealers. This can be a major impediment for new companies without established independent dealer franchises. So, new AV companies. like Tesla, need to sell their vehicles online. Tesla has successfully done this, but it took a lot of work and time. Lack of a dealer network also creates impediments in service.\nIn addition, over the next 4-5 years, autonomous capabilities will be increasingly important to luxury vehicles. This may prove to be a challenge to start-up EV companies because they can't afford to develop this technology.\nLet's look closer at the alternative consumer retail EV investments.\nLucid Motors (CCIV)\nLucid was founded in 2007 under the name Atieva and originally focused on building electric vehicle batteries and powertrains for other vehicle manufacturers. The company rebranded itself as Lucid Motors in October 2016 and shifted its strategy to develop an all-electric, high-performance, luxury vehicle. Shortly after that, it encountered financial difficulties and struggled to get short-term funding. In 2018 it raised more than $1 billion in investment, primarily from Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund, and gave up a majority of the company.\nLucid Motors reached an agreement to become a publicly-traded company through a merger with the SPAC Churchill Capital IV Corp., in one of the largest deals SPAC EV deals. The combined company, in which Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund will continue to be the largest shareholder, had a transaction equity value of $11.75 billion (for $10/share). At the same time, it closed a PIPE investment priced at $15 a share, giving it an implied pro forma equity value of $24 billion. Rumors about this deal circulated before the transaction was formally announced, making it one of the most anticipated SPAC deals. The hype and speculation drove up the stock price of Churchill Capital IV Corp. from its opening price of $10 a share to almost $60. I believe that some of this may have been driven by novice SPAC investors who didn't realize that the valuation of CCIV didn't include the eventual valuation of Lucid. The share price dropped more than 30% after the details of the deal were announced. It's also likely that Lucid renegotiated the terms of the merger based on the price jump.\nThe company's first product is the Lucid Air, a well-equipped luxury electric vehicle that features 406 miles of projected range and 480 horsepower with a starting price of $77,400, or $69,900 after the U.S. Federal Tax Credit of $7,500. This new Lucid Air model is positioned as a high-performance, ultra-efficient luxury EV sedan in a line of future vehicles that are expected to include Lucid Air Touring, Grand Touring, and Dream Edition versions.\nThe company plans to begin production and deliveries of the Lucid Air in North America in the second half of 2021. Previously the company aimed to begin deliveries earlier in 2021. It intends to sell the car in Europe in 2022, followed by China in 2023. Lucid vehicles will be produced at its new factory in Casa Grande, Arizona. The company plans to expand the factory in phases in the coming years to have the capacity to produce 365,000 units per year at scale. The initial phase of the $700 million factory construction was completed late last year and will have the capacity to produce 30,000 vehicles a year.\nLucid also apparently has a commitment to build an assembly plant in Saudi Arabia, which was rumored to be a condition of the $1 billion investment from the Saudi public fund. The Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund also provided $600 million in bridge financing and invested in the SPAC deal as well. So, while this assembly plant may be expensive and may not be critical, it will most likely need to happen.\nLucid has ambitious plans to achieve $14 billion in revenue in 2025, and its current stock price at $29.17, which gives it a market cap of more than $46 billion, may already reflect those ambitions. Its market cap is roughly the same as Ford.\nFisker (FSR)\nFisker, which had its origins with Fisker Automotive, is an interesting story that ended in bankruptcy. Henrik Fisker originally co-founded Fisker Automotive in 2007. He was responsible for designing many premium cars such as the Aston Martin. Subsequently, Fisker Automotive had to deal with a Tesla lawsuit against Fisker Automotive alleging it stole Tesla's technology, a controversial $528.7 million conditional loan from the Department of Energy, a recall of its battery produced by A123, and the loss of several hundred vehicles in hurricane Sandy. Henrik Fisker resigned in March 2013 because of disagreements over business strategy and in November 2013, Fisker filed its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case.\nHowever, Henrik Fisker retained the Fisker brand and trademarks, and in 2016 he started another electric vehicle company named Fisker Inc. with the Fisker brand and trademarks. In 2019, Fisker shifted from developing a sports car with a solid-state battery to the Ocean SUV featuring a lithium-ion battery, which it later abandoned for a solid-state battery.\nFisker is positioning itself in a unique segment for those who want the most environmentally friendly EV. While this may be an early growth segment for EVs, it's difficult to estimate its eventual competitive advantage and the size of this environmentally-friendly market segment.\nThe Ocean is a crossover made of recycled metal and plastic with an expected base price of $37,499, and an expected lease of less than $400 a month. Fisker's plan is essentially a lease-only business model that lets customers keep a vehicle for years or return it at any time. It aims to source motors, batteries, and other components from technical partnerships with automakers and will outsource production from existing auto plants. Fisker is currently taking reservations at $250 for the Ocean. It also announced an agreement with Foxconn to jointly develop a vehicle pioneering a new market segment to be sold globally under the Fisker brand commencing in Q4 2023. at the end of 2022. Production will start at Magna Steyr's manufacturing facilities in Europe. At the end of February 2021, it had 12,467 cancellable reservations.\nFisker Ocean. Source: Fisker\nFisker went public using a SPAC (Spartan Energy). The original combination with SPAQ in October 2020 was valued at $2.9 billion with a cash investment of approximately $1 billion. The stock currently trades at approximately $21 per share, after reaching a high of $28.50, from the original price of $10, which is a market cap of $4.6 billion. Fisker projects $3.3 billion in revenue in 2023. It had almost $1 billion in cash at the end of 2020 and expected to use almost half of this in 2021: $250 million on operating expenses and $250 million in capital investments. If the Ocean is delayed into 2023, Fisker risks missing its revenue objective and will potentially need additional cash to complete development and launch.\nFaraday Future (PSAC)\nFaraday Future was originally established in May 2014 by Chinese businessman Jia Yueting. It is headquartered in Los Angeles and has offices in Silicon Valley, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu. Faraday Future also had a turbulent history. In 2016, it struggled financially, and in 2017 some key executives departed over a dispute about financial issues. They later founded Canoo.\nIn December 2018 the company announced layoffs due to a cash crunch and financial troubles. The company's founder Jia Yueting filed for personal bankruptcy in the United States' federal court in Delaware on October 14, 2019. Following Jia's personal bankruptcy, he decided to step down from his role as CEO of Faraday Future in order to assume a new position as the Chief Product and User Officer. He was replaced as CEO by Carsten Breitfeld, the former CEO at rival electric vehicle startup Byton.\nSomehow, Faraday was able to raise $2.3 billion in private funding over 5 rounds from a variety of investors. In early 2018, it received $1.5 billion in funding from an undisclosed investor from Hong Kong.\nFaraday's flagship product offering will be the FF 91, featuring 1,050 HP, 0-60 mph in less than 2.4 seconds, zero gravity seats with the largest 60-degree reclining angles, and a user experience designed to create a mobile, connected, and luxurious living space. The FF 91 is targeted to launch in 2022.\nFF 91. Source: Faraday Future\nIts strategic partners include one of China's top three OEMs and a critical Chinese city, which the company believes will help establish its presence in the Chinese vehicle market.\nFaraday Future plans several cars based on its Variable Platform Architecture. FF 91 is the first production vehicle and flagship model. Pricing will range between $120,000 and upwards of $200,000, which places it against formidable opponents. Faraday Future is already looking forward to expanding its range with a pair of smaller models named FF 81 and FF 71. The FF 81 is planned to be priced at $75,000 to 95,000 with a 2023 release. The FF 71 is planned to be priced at $45,000 to $65,000 with a planned release of 2024.\nThe Primary Manufacturing Facility for FF 91 is in Hanford, CA with contract manufacturing for future models in Gunsan, South Korea.\nFaraday Future is planning high-Level automation with a Level-3 capable system using a redundant safety architecture based on NVIDIA Xavier System-on-a-chip. It will be capable of highway auto-drive and hardware ready for advanced auto-drive. It is targeting full autonomous valet parking & summon in any parking lot or structure. Eventually, it expects full auto-drive, including full 360˚ sensor coverage for advanced auto-drive & auto-park features.\nIn January 2021, Faraday Future announced that the company would go public through a reverse merger with the special purpose acquisition company Property Solutions Acquisition Corp. (PSAC). The combined company will be valued at $3.4 billion. Faraday Future is expected to set up contract manufacturing operations in China through their partnership with Geely. Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn is also expected to serve as an additional strategic partner.\nFaraday Future projects $10.5 billion in revenue in 2024 and $21.5 billion in 2025. Revenue is expected to start in 2022 with the delivery of 2,400 vehicles for $504 million. Most likely these projections could prove to be optimistic. At a current stock price of approximately $12.80, it has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nLordstown Motors (RIDE)\nLordstown Motors based in Lordstown, Ohio, was originally founded in 2018 by Steve Burns, the former CEO of Workhorse Group. The company licensed technology from Workhorse in return for royalties and a 10% ownership. Lordstown is named after the famous GM Lordstown manufacturing plant, which it acquired in November 2019 in an unusual transaction. GM announced that it was closing the plant and was under a great deal of pressure for that decision. So, GM \"sold\" the plant to a company that was renamed Lordstown for an estimated $20 million that it loaned to the acquiring company. Subsequently, the sale was redefined to be part of a $75 million investment by GM, of which $50 million was an in-kind exchange for the plant.\nLordstown went public through the SPAC DiamondPeak Holdings Corp. in 2020. It currently has more than 400 employees.\nIts first product is the Lordstown Endurance, a full-sized EV pickup truck. Lordstown is positioning Endurance for the pickup fleet market segment. The expected price is $52,000+, and it claimed to have more than 100,000 pre-orders by January 2021. However, a recent research article published by a short seller claimed \"Our research has revealed that Lordstown's order book consists of fake or entirely non-binding orders, from customers that generally do not even have fleets of vehicles.\" Lordstown is disputing that article.\nIt believes the fleet pickup market segment is underserved with no current EV-focused competition. It estimates that the full-sized pick-up truck fleet market is 1.2 million vehicles per year in the U.S., but it's more fragmented than other truck fleets. Pickup \"fleets\" tend to be much smaller and local, so there may not be much of a market distinction for a small company buying several EV pickups from a traditional auto dealer. About half of the total U.S. pickup market is classified as fleet sales, meaning more than one.\nEven though Lordstown is targeting the commercial fleet market, it is a similar product to the Ford EV F-150. So I classify it in the consumer EV category. It is a class 2 vehicle. Lordstown also may enter the SUV market in the longer-term.\nThe Endurance will compete against future models from Rivian and Tesla, as well as Ford and GM in ICE pick-ups and their upcoming EV pick-ups. Ford plans on selling its EV F-150 in mid-2022. Initial production of the Endurance is expected in the second half of 2021, so it may have a short market advantage. Nevertheless, it forecasts selling 65,000 vehicles in 2023 and 107,000 in 2024. These estimates could be a large percentage of the EV pick-up market in those years.\nAt the SPAC merger, the implied valuation for Lordstown was $1.6 billion, including a $500 million PIPE and the $75 million by GM. Lordstown's financial projections appear to be aggressive. It projects to start shipping the Endurance in late 2021 with projected revenue in 2022 of $1.7 billion, increasing to $5.8 billion in 2024. Its stock price at approximately $13.60 values the company at a market cap of approximately $2.2 billion. The value of the company depends on the likelihood of achieving its projections.\nA fleet sales strategy makes sense for Lordstown since it would be too expensive to build a retail sales and service capability. However, it's not clear that this will become a distinct competitive advantage. Some small fleets may still prefer to buy their EV pickups from established local dealers with service capabilities.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nCanoo started as Evelozcity in 2017 and rebranded as Canoo in the spring of 2019. Canoo is a Los Angeles-based company that develops electric vehicles. It has over 350 employees. Canoo has designed a modular electric platform purpose-built to deliver maximum vehicle interior space, which is adaptable to support a wide range of vehicle applications for consumers and businesses. Canoo expects to launch its first consumer model in 2022, simply named the Canoo that will be available by subscription, followed shortly after by a multi-purpose delivery vehicle and a sports vehicle, each built off of the same underlying platform. Canoo went public using a SPAC (Hennessy Capital Acquisition) and now trades as GOEV.\nCanoo's all-electric skateboard-like platform is designed to support both consumer retail and commercial vehicle configurations. The EV leverages Canoo's flat skateboard architecture for a high level of usable interior space. Its commercial vehicle program, expected in 2023, addresses a projected $50B+ last-mile delivery market with an EV platform that maximizes cargo volume.\nHyundai Motor Group said it would jointly develop an electric vehicle platform with the company.\nCanoo's platform strategy is interesting. It could be used as an EV platform for custom fleets of delivery vehicles. It has no AV development, but it claims to be \"AV Ready\" which could be useful for AV companies wanting to build custom AV delivery fleets.\nIts all-electric multi-purpose delivery vehicle is expected to be priced starting at approximately $33,000. It is based on Canoo's proprietary electric platform and will be offered in two initial size variants, with others to follow. Limited availability will begin in 2022, with scaled production and launch planned for 2023. Customers can pre-order the multi-purpose delivery vehicle for a refundable deposit of $100 per vehicle\nIt plans to offer two multi-purpose delivery vehicles: the MPDV1 and the larger MPDV2. The first has a 200-foot cargo volume and a range of 130-200 miles. It offers more capacity than today's ICE delivery vehicles at an affordable price with urban mobility enabled by a space-efficient footprint. The vehicle is also designed to fit within many height-restricted areas like parking garages.\nThe MPDV2 has a cargo volume of 450 feet and a range of 90-190 miles. Its roof and step-in height enable individuals to easily walk-in the vehicle and accommodate a standing position while inside.\nThe original SPAC transaction provided approximately $600 million, with a pro forma equity value of approximately $2.4 billion. Like other SPAC mergers, its stock price has fluctuated. It currently trades at about $15.90 per share for a market cap of approximately $3.7 billion. Canoo projects $2.0 billion in revenue in 2025 from about $500 million in engineering services, $1.2 billion from its consumer vehicle subscriptions, and the remainder from its commercial program. Canoo expects revenue of more than $300 million in 2022 after the launch of its lifestyle consumer vehicle.\nSince its first products are aimed at consumers, as is most of its forecasted 2025 revenue, I categorize it primarily as a consumer EV company. However, I think the design of that Canoo vehicle may not attract enough customers. More importantly, its subscription service way of selling its EV to consumers is risky. I think it has more potential in the commercial market, however, a dual strategy (consumer and commercial) is challenging. I like its skateboard platform design and that could prove to be a competitive advantage.\nRivian\nAlthough not yet public, I include Rivian because it has plans for an IPO as soon as Sept 2021, although it could slip into 2022. There are rumors that the company is targeting a market valuation of approximately $50B. Rivian has already raised more than $8 billion to date from Amazon, Ford, T. Rowe Price, and others.\nRivian has developed and vertically integrated a connected electric platform that can be flexibly applied to a range of applications, including the company's adventure products, as well as B2B products such as the Amazon last-mile delivery vans. The company's initial products, the R1T and R1S, provide a combination of performance, off-road capability, and utility. These vehicles will be produced at Rivian's manufacturing plant in Normal, Ill., with customer deliveries expected to begin in summer 2021. The launch of the R1S three-row electric SUV will follow in August.\nAdditional lower-priced models are being planned. The expected R2 series would include at least two smaller electric vehicles to coincide with the smaller platform, then another platform for R3.\nCommercial Delivery EV Companies\nEV truck companies differ based on the type of truck they are developing. The technology and markets are very different, so I separate them into two categories. The first category includes commercial delivery vehicles.\nCompanies making EV delivery vehicles have some major advantages that could make them good investments. First, delivery vehicles typically travel less than 250 miles during a day, so they can be conveniently recharged overnight. Secondly, they are typically sold in large quantities to fleets. This means that building a retail sales infrastructure is not necessary. It only requires a small salesforce. In addition, maintenance can also be provided at the fleet's operational center, so not as many service centers are required.\nThe disadvantage in this market is that there are a relatively small number of customers that buy in large volumes, so if the EV manufacturer can't get enough large customers, they may not be able to stay in business. GM estimates the combined market opportunity for parcel and food delivery, as well as reverse logistics, in the U.S. will be more than $850 billion by 2025.\nThe commercial market is expected to be a major growth area for EVs. Other start-up automakers like Rivian as well as legacy automakers such as Ford, Daimler, and GM have announced plans to enter the segment. GM recently announced its BrightDrop ecosystem for commercial customers that includes an all-new electric delivery van, the EV600 available by the end of 2021, as well as an integrated autonomous pallet and related services.\nThis group of EV companies focuses primarily on commercial delivery. In general, these are in the light-duty trucks category, although it also includes some medium-duty trucks. This generally includes the following commercial truck classes:\n\nClass 1: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 0-6,000 pounds or 0-2,722 kilograms.\nClass 2: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 6,001-10,000 pounds or 2,722-4,536 kilograms.1\nClass 3: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 10,001-14,000 pounds or 4,536-6,350 kilograms.\n\nIt can also include somewhat larger medium-duty EV delivery trucks:\n\nClass 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.\nClass 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.\n\nEV delivery trucks also have an advantage over ICE vehicles because they can have a greater delivery storage space. Smaller buses and transit vehicles are also included in this category.\nLast-mile package delivery is not an immediate-term autonomous vehicle opportunity because it requires a delivery person to be on the truck anyway.\nWorkhorse Group (WKHS)\nWorkhorse has been a public company for ten years. Originally AMP Electric Vehicles, it was established in 2007 as a developmental-stage vehicle electrification company, focusing on conversions. AMP Electric Vehicles went public in 2010 trading on the OTC market under the AMPD symbol. When the economic benefits of conversion became less certain, it pivoted away from passenger vehicles and began to focus on electrifying commercial vehicles. AMP acquired the Workhorse brand and the Workhorse custom chassis assembly plant in Union City. In March of 2013, AMP formally changed its name to Workhorse Group Incorporated.\nThe Company designs and builds a last-mile delivery electric vehicle. The C-Series EVs cover the larger size of commercial delivery vehicles in Classes 3-5. As part of its solutions, it also develops cloud-based, real-time telematics performance monitoring systems. It sells its vehicles to fleet customers directly and through its primary distributor, Ryder Systems. It is currently focused on bringing the C-Series electric delivery truck to market and fulfilling the existing backlog of orders.\nThe C-Series looks like a viable EV replacement for the 350,000 last-mile delivery vehicles sold in the U.S. annually. It recently announced an increased driving range from 100 miles to 160, which should open more market opportunities. It has a viable short-term go-to-market strategy selling fleets to delivery companies. It currently has test vehicles with UPS, DHL, FedEx, Amazon, and Walmart.\nWorkhorse recently lost out on the United States Postal Services Next Generation Delivery Vehicle project, however, it is in the process of challenging this decision. Additionally, its investment in Lordstown also provides an indirect investment opportunity. On November 7, 2019, the Company entered a transaction with Lordstown Motors to grant LMC a perpetual and worldwide license to certain intellectual property relating to its W-15 electric pickup truck platform and related technology in exchange for royalties, equity interest (approximately 10%) in LMC, and other considerations. This was a $320 million asset for Workhorse at the end of 2020.\nWorkhorse received a significant increase in orders in Q4/2020 but built just seven trucks in the fourth quarter due to production systems and supply chain issues. Workhorse plans to continue to take it slow, striving to build three of its composite-body battery-electric trucks a day in March with a plan to reach 10 trucks a day by the end of June. This makes its original 2021 goal of producing 1,800 trucks unlikely. It partnered with Hitachi and Hitachi Capital America (\"HCA\") to improve the Company's manufacturing, operational, and supply chain capabilities as well as to develop a national dealer network to support Workhorse's sales with vehicle financing options for both dealers and customers.\nWorkhorse has a market cap of approximately $1.9 billion. While Workhorse had ongoing revenue, unlike many other new EV companies, its revenue is still insignificant. It had a revenue of $1.4 million in 2020 and $377,000 in 2019. It has a backlog of over 8,000 vehicles but doesn't expect to be able to build many of those in 2021. It raised $270 million in capital over several financings, providing the Company with additional capital to build its backlog. It had cash of $215 million as of March 1, 2021. Because Workhorse is a traditional public company, it hasn't made long-term financial projections like SPAC-based companies.\nElectric Last Mile (FIII)\nElectric Last Mile, based in Troy Michigan, was founded by Jason Luo, former CEO of Ford China before it was acquired by China's Ningbo Joyson Electronic for $920 million in 2016, including James Taylor, former CEO of GM's Hummer brand and former CEO of electric car maker Karma Automotive. Taylor serves as the company's top executive with Luo as the company's chairman.\nThe company plans to launch a small electric delivery van (class 1-2), called the UD-1, in the third quarter of 2021, and then introduce an Urban Utility vehicle (Class 2-3) in 2022. These are expected to compete with Workhorse, Rivian, Canoo, as well as the Ford eTransit and the GMC BV1, none of which is expected to be a Class 1 vehicle.\nThe company says it has 30,000 preorders for its van, representing more than $1 billion in sales. Electric Last Miles vehicles will be based on Sokon's commercial van made in China through a joint venture with Dongfeng Automobile Co Ltd. in order to accelerate development time.\nElectric Last Mile (ELM) is expected to manufacture the vans in a former General Motors Co. Hummer plant in Mishawaka, Ind., that the company is acquiring from China's Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co. Ltd. The plant has the capacity to produce 100,000 vehicles annually with plans to build approximately 4,000 UD-1 vans by the end of 2021. The UD-1 has a starting price of $32,500 and a range of 150 miles. The battery for the vehicle is expected to be supplied by the Chinese battery company CATL.\nELM believes that it has a competitive advantage because its first vehicle, the ELM Urban Delivery, is scheduled to be available in 2021. It is based on a proven, existing platform developed and sold by Sokon Group in the Asian market, where there are 30,000 of these electric delivery vehicles driving 1.5 million miles every day. At the close of the business combination, ELM will be an independent, U.S. company producing electric vehicles in the U.S. with Sokon Group providing access to its know-how, parts supply, and field and service data.\nELM expects that the Urban Delivery vehicle will be the first electric delivery vehicle coming to market in the class 1 category (GVW of 6,000 lbs or less) in the U.S. It will also have 35% more carrying volume compared to similar ICE delivery vehicles, a critical part of the value proposition. It also anticipates that its price and greater carrying volume will allow it to take market share from the class 2 category of vehicles as well.\nIts crossover product portfolio strategy targets commercial delivery vehicles spanning from class 1 to class 3, which represents over 80% of the last mile market.\nELM anticipates $122 million in revenue in 2021, rapidly increasing to $3 billion in 2025. The price of FIII stock increased immediately following its announcement with Electric Last Mile, rising more than 40% to $14.50, but now it has dropped closer to the original deal price to $10.25 for a market cap of approximately $1.5 billion.\nGreenPower Motor Company (GP)\nGreenPower Motor Company Inc. is a Canadian battery-electric bus manufacturer with multiple models of high- and low-floor vehicles, including transit buses, school buses, and shuttles. GreenPower offers commercial vehicles for delivery, public transit, schools, vanpooling, micro-transit, shuttles, and is developing a capability of autonomous operation. It went public on August 28, 2020.\nIn 2014 GreenPower launched its first purpose-built, battery-electric bus, the EV350, 40-foot transit bus. GreenPower received its first order in 2017 for ten EV350s from the City of Porterville, California.\nGreenPower's electric buses are purpose-built and designed to be all-electric, allowing it to put the battery and propulsion system in optimized locations that provide weight and structural advantages. Its primary EV is the EV Star with more than 120 vehicles delivered. It comes in several variations:\n\nEV Star - Up to 19 passengers\nEV Star Plus - Up to 24 passengers\nEV Star ADA - Passenger and curbside lift for ADA\nEV Star Cargo - 5,000 pounds of load\nEV Star Cargo Plus - 570 cubic feet of cargo space.\n\nIts EV school bus seats up to 90 students and has a range of up to 150 miles.\nGreenPower had revenue of $13.5 million in 2020 It has about $21 million in cash. It's an interesting alternative since it is already shipping EVs, has revenue, and also has a lower market cap of less than $1 billion. Since it did a traditional IPO, it hasn't published longer-term financial forecasts.\nArrival (CIIC)\nArrival was founded in 2015 in London to make a variety of commercial electric vehicles. It has approximately 1,200 employees across 11 cities in 8 countries. In November 2020, Arrival and the SPAC CIIG entered into a business combination agreement with an implied valuation of $5.39 billion.\nArrival plans on releasing four commercial EVs over the next few years.\n\nQ4/2021: An electric bus for 8-125 passengers and a range of 240-400km\nQ3/2022: An electric delivery van with a payload of 975-2,000kg and a range of 150-340km\n2022: A larger electric van with a payload of 4,000 kg and a range of 190-400km\n2023: a small vehicle platform with a range of 100-300km.\n\nThis mix provides a nice diversified portfolio of EVs. Arrival claims to have received orders from UPS for 10,000 vans. It plans a unique flexible manufacturing approach using micro-factories with each projected to manufacture 10,000 vans per year. All of its vehicles use a modular skateboard electric platform.\nArrival ambitiously projects $14.1 billion in revenue in 2024. Half of that revenue is expected from delivery vans, 22% from buses, and the rest from the large van and its small vehicle platform. With CIIC's stock price at $24.80 per share, Arrival's current market cap is relatively high at approximately $15.0 billion. Justifying its market cap depends on its ability to release, sell, and produce its four commercial EVs.\nProterra (ACTC)\nProterra is a commercial electric vehicle company with over a decade of production experience. The Company has designed an end-to-end, flexible technology platform that claims to deliver higher performance and a low total cost of ownership to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end customers.\nProterra, Inc., was originally founded in Golden, Colorado, by Dale Hill in 2004. Later the company wanted to take the lead in creating zero-emission, U.S.-based transit buses. In 2010 it moved its manufacturing plant from Golden, Colorado to Greenville, South Carolina. In 2015, Proterra was awarded a $3 million grant from the California Energy Commission to fund the design, development, and construction of the company's battery-electric transit bus manufacturing line in the City of Industry, California. It moved its headquarters from Greenville, South Carolina, to Burlingame, California, in October 2015. Proterra raised more than $600 million in funding.\nIt is going public through the SPAC ArcLight (ACTC) with a pro forma valuation of $1.6 billion. Upon completion of the transaction, Proterra expects to have up to $825 million in cash to fund growth initiatives, including R&D and the expansion of its next-generation battery program.\nProterra has three complementary businesses:\n\nProterra Powered: Delivering battery systems and electrification solutions to commercial vehicle manufacturers\nProterra Transit:Providing an electric transit bus OEMs\nProterra Energy:Offering turnkey charging and energy management solutions.\n\nThe company's battery systems have been proven in more than 16 million service miles driven by its fleet of transit vehicles and validated through partnerships with commercial vehicle OEMs. Proterra has produced and delivered more than 300 megawatt-hours of battery systems, more than 550 heavy-duty electric transit buses, and installed 54 megawatts of charging systems.\nProterra expected $193 million of revenue in 2020, with an estimated $750 million in existing orders and backlog. It projects $2.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with about 1/3 coming from its Transit business, and 2/3 From Powered & Energy. At ACTC's current stock price of $17.85, Proterra has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nRivian\nRivian (see earlier description in consumer retail) will also compete in the commercial delivery market. It has been working with Amazon (a major investor) to build large electric delivery vans for Prime. Developed specifically for Amazon, a small fleet of Prime vans is on the road now, testing deliveries to customers and gathering feedback. In late fall, it could grow to a large fleet as Rivian ramps up the volume.\nThe EV range of 150 miles is tailored to Amazon's use cycle to optimize the size, weight, and cost of the commercial vehicle. Rivian has three sizes of batteries, but Amazon is starting with just one of them.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nSee the previous summary under consumer retail EV.\nMedium and Long-Haul Trucking EV Companies\nCompanies developing medium- and long-haul EV trucks face a more difficult challenge with battery range. These trucks haul much more weight than commercial delivery vehicles and because they are designed for long distances, they can't stop every 200-300 miles for recharging.\nFor this reason, many of these companies are using unique hybrid technologies for their trucks. The EV trucks in this category are primarily heavy-duty but also include some medium-duty trucks and specialty vehicles. A couple of the companies focus on retrofitting trucks to be electric.\nMedium-Duty Trucks\nThe medium-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 4, 5, and 6:\n\nClass 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.\nClass 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.\nClass 6: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 19,501-26,000 pounds or 8,846-11,793 kilograms.1\n\nHeavy-Duty Trucks\nThe heavy-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 7 and 8:\n\nClass 7: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 26,001 to 33,000 pounds or 11,794-14,969 kilograms.\nClass 8: This class of trucks has a GVWR of greater than 33,001 pounds or 14,969 kilograms and includes all tractor-trailers.\n\nThe Tesla Semi is a battery vehicle planned for a range of 300 or 500 miles and a speed of 60 MPH with 80,000 lbs of cargo. Tesla plans to start shipping the Semi later this year when it expects to have sufficient cell volume to meet its needs with the production of its 4680 battery pack.\nNikola(NASDAQ:NKLA)\nNikola has been a very controversial company. Founded in 2015, it originally had two different strategies. Its primary strategy is to lease fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) Class-8 heavy trucks and provide the refueling infrastructure to corporate customers. Its second strategy was to develop the Badger EV truck using GM technology.\nNikola originally merged with a SPAC to go public, at an enterprise value of approximately $3.3 billion. On June 6th, 2020, its market cap jumped to more than $30 billion, then later it dropped because of problems with its originally planned deal with GM.\nNikola originally expected a deal with General Motors that included the production of the Nikola Badger EV pickup truck. The proposed arrangement was that GM would take a $2 billion equity stake in Nikola and in return would engineer and produce the Badger. In November 2020, GM and Nikola scrapped the original arrangement. Now it appears that GM will supply Nikola with only its Hydrotec hydrogen fuel-cell technology to integrate into the EV manufacturer's commercial class 7 and class 8 zero-emission semi-trucks. So, the Badger is probably dead.\nNikola now sees semi-trucks as the company's \"core business\" and fuel cells as an increasingly important segment of the semi-truck market thanks to their efficiency in weight and consumption. It expects to begin testing by the end of 2021.\nIt has received pre-orders from Anheuser-Busch and a few other companies, but it doesn't expect deliveries until 2023. Hydrogen fueling stations are key to its strategy, both providing a source of revenue and necessary fueling infrastructure for the trucks to operate, but they also cost a lot. In its March 2020 investor deck, Nikola said a single station capable of fueling 210 trucks a day would cost $16.6 million. Its initial planned network of 700 stations would cost roughly $11.6 billion.\nNikola was also accused of misrepresentation, and its executive chairman and founder stepped down.\nAt the time of the SPAC merger, it projected an optimistic forecast of more than $3 billion in revenue by 2024, with a net income of $145 million. Most of that revenue was expected to come from its Badger truck, which is no longer in the plans. Yet its market cap is still almost $6 billion.\nHyliion (HYLN)\nHyliion, founded in 2015 in Austin, went public in October 2020 through the SPAC Tortoise Acquisition Corp. (SHLL). In March 2019, automotive parts manufacturer Dana Inc. made an equity investment into Hyliion, and together they are manufacturing and marketing Class 8 EVs to Dana's customers, including Volvo, Navistar, and Peterbilt.\nHyliion's strategy is unique, and a very different strategy from Nikola. Essentially it generates electricity onboard the truck using compressed natural gas (CNG). This should be a benefit for longer-range trucking. Hyliion's Hypertruck concept involves an all-electric drivetrain utilizing Dana's electric motor, inverter, and axle technologies. The truck's batteries are fueled by onboard tanks of CNG. With some 700 CNG stations already operating nationwide, it believes that there no need to build out expensive superchargers or hydrogen infrastructure.\nKuwait-based logistics company, Agility, has already placed an order for 1,000 Hypertrucks with initial deliveries targeted in 2022. Combined with a fully electric drivetrain and a natural gas-powered onboard generator to recharge the battery, the Hypertruck ERX will provide more than 1,000 miles of range.\nHyliion will eventually compete with Nikola (FCEV) and the Tesla battery-based Semi, but it plans to have a longer range and lower operating costs. Its HyperTruck ERX is expected to be available in 2021. It also has a hybrid-electric truck.\nThe combination with SHLL had an estimated market cap of about $1.5 billion, with approximately $530 million going to the company, including a $325 million fully committed PIPE. At approximately $13.50 per share, its current market cap is approximately $2.2 billion, significantly down from its peak. Hyliion projects $2 billion in revenue in 2024, which it claims is only about 2% of the addressable market.\nXL Fleet (XL)\nXL Fleet is a 10-year old company that went public through the SPAC Pivotal. XL is different because it provides fleet electrification modifications for ICE trucks across a wide range of vehicle classes (class 2-5) and types. It has over 200 of the largest commercial and municipal fleets as customers, with more than 3,200 XL systems deployed and over 130 million miles driven by customers to date. XL's customer base includes FedEx, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Verizon, the City of Boston, Seattle Fire Department, Yale University, and Harvard University.\nXL's business model is essentially retrofitting existing trucks to be hybrids and then later expanding into fully electric truck conversions. It claims to be creating a fully integrated platform for this. It remains to be seen if the retrofitting business will continue to grow or will it diminish when more trucks are designed and manufactured with EV capabilities.\nUnlike some other EV companies that have no revenue yet because they are still developing products, XL is more of a small company doing low-volume retrofits. It had $7.2 million in revenue in 2019, $21 million in 2020, and estimates $76 million in 2021, but it forecasts $1.3 billion in revenue in 2024 in its investor presentation. It plans to do this by expanding its product line from hybrid to plug-in hybrid to fully electric across a broader range of trucks. It claims to have a $220 million sales pipeline for the next 12 months.\nShort-seller, Muddy Waters, claimed after talking to former XL Fleet employees, that it believed the company significantly exaggerated its order backlog, that the return on investment for the company's products was likely negative, and that it would not be able to compete with big car makers on electrification. The company thoroughly refuted these claims.\nThe original enterprise valuation was approximately $1.4 billion at a $10 share price for the merger. Its price jumped by about 35% but has since gone back down to $12.40 for a market cap of about $1.8 billion. Although XL Fleet has revenue and other EV companies don't, this may not be an advantage. It appears to be a small company for many years that has gone public at a high valuation with grand plans. The risks are in its ability to make a jump from $76 million in 2021 to $1.3 billion in 2024, as well as the question about retrofitting being replaced by new EV trucks by then.\nXos (NGAC)\nXos Trucks specializes in the field of manufacturing fully electric commercial vehicles. It features a software platform that is designed to accommodate an extensive variety of medium-duty bodies, wheelbase, and range requirements up to 200 miles. It was founded in 2016 and headquartered in North Hollywood, California. It received $20 million of investment in 2020 and now is going public through a merger with the SPAC ExtGen Acquisition Corporation (NGAC) at an estimated proforma value of $1.965 billion.\nIts focus is on medium- and heavy-duty last mile and return-to-base segments (class 5/6, class 6/7, and class 7/8) commercial fleets and specialty vehicles. Some vehicles are currently in production and in regular on-road operations with key fleet customers, and it claimed 6,000 unit orders in backlog.\nIts MD-platform is for classes 5-6 for pickup and delivery. Its HD X-Platform is an adaptable chassis for highway, vocational, and severe work conditions. Its market is for customers with highly predictable routes that allow for batteries designed for a more limited range. A significantly larger frame and smaller battery pack allow for reduced density.\nXos has a bundled all-in-one offering that allows fleets to access all the tools and services they need to go electric with a single point of contact at a fixed monthly expense.\nXos had $3 million in revenue in 2020 and estimates $14 million in 2021. However, it forecasts $5.2 billion in revenue in 2025. At the current stock price of $10.30, its market cap is approximately $2 billion, about the same as its original SPAC transaction.\nLion Electric (NGA)\nLion Electric is a Canadian company founded by Marc Bédard in 2008. Its focus is to be a leader in designing, developing, and manufacturing purpose-built urban electric vehicles; vehicles that are specifically designed as delivery trucks, refuse trucks, bucket trucks, moving trucks, school buses, and shuttle buses. It has over 300 all-electric vehicles on the road today.\nIn November 2020, it announced that it was going public through the SPAC NGA. The transaction had an estimated pro forma enterprise value of $1.5 billion.\nIt plans on seven new truck models and one new school bus, for a total of 15 all-electric vehicles, representing a full line-up from class 5 to class 8 electric trucks and a full line-up of electric school buses. Its vehicles are produced at its existing manufacturing plant, which has the capacity for the production of up to 2,500 vehicles per year. It intends to open a new plant in the U.S. capable of delivering over 20,000 Lion trucks and buses per year by 2022.\nIts all-electric class 6 and class 8 commercial urban trucks combine power, comfort, and modern technology. Custom-built chassis and cabin designed specifically for an all-electric heavy-duty vehicle. The LionC is an all-electric Type C school bus manufactured in North America. The body and chassis were specifically designed to deliver optimal performance. The LionM is an all-electric midi/minibus that meets paratransit and public transportation requirements. Created and designed specifically for the paratransit market, the is spacious and offers unique features that provide enhanced security and accessibility to the end-users.\nLion Electric had $29 million in revenue in 2020 and expects $204 million in 2021. It forecasts revenue to jump to $3.6 billion a few years later in 2024. Its current market cap is approximately $3.6 billion based on its current stock price of $18.33.\nLightning eMotors (GIK)\nLightning eMotors, formerly Lightning Systems, was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Loveland, Colorado. It provides fleet electrification for familiar commercial vehicle platforms by retrofitting them with its electric powertrains. Lightning eMotors produces electric fleet medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including delivery trucks, shuttle buses, passenger vans, ambulances, bucket trucks, chassis-cab models, and city transit buses. It focuses on urban commercial zero-emission vehicles with a full range of class 3 through class 7 battery-electric and fuel-cell electric vehicles.\nLighting eMotors helps commercial fleets achieve their sustainability goals by offering zero-emission battery-electric vans, trucks, and buses based on familiar, proven vehicles from manufacturers such as Ford and GM. It works with customers, to help them identify their unique commercial electric vehicle, charging, and grant support needs.\nThe Lightning products include integrated all-electric powertrains for the Ford Transit 350HD passenger and cargo vans, Ford E-450 shuttle bus and cutaway models, Ford F-59 step/food van, Ford F-550 cargo trucks and buses, Chevrolet 6500XD Low Cab Forward model, and 30-foot, 35-foot, and 40-foot transit buses.\nLightning has 120 vehicles on the road, and 1,500 vehicles already on order from customers. In addition to making vehicles and powertrains, Lightning also provides a full suite of charging solutions for customers.\nThe deal with GIK has an enterprise value of $650 million, although there is also an Earnout of 20.0% of total pro forma shares outstanding to Lightning eMotors shareholders if the stock crosses certain price thresholds.\nAt the current price, of $11.73, GIK has a market cap of approximately $1 billion, a little more than the original transaction valuation. Similar to XL Fleet, Lightning has the risk that retrofitting may only be an interim business opportunity until more EV trucks are produced.\nPublic Chinese EV Companies\nChina will be the biggest EV market opportunity, and EV start-ups may do better there because there isn't as much entrenched competition from domestic auto companies. China is already the largest EV market in the world, with almost a million EVs sold in 2019. Its EV market represents almost half of the global EV sales volume and is much larger than the U.S. market.\nThe Chinese government has ambitions to become a global leader in new energy vehicles. Soon after the coronavirus outbreak subsided within the country, Chinese authorities announced new policies to support the auto and electric vehicle industries.\nThese Chinese companies are traded through American depository shares (ADS) that contain certain risks. There are financial reporting and transparency risks with these companies, and on top of that, the newer companies are being classified as \"emerging growth\" companies that are already exempt from certain transparency requirements set out in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Like the previous EV stock, these stocks have also been very volatile.\nIn addition to legacy auto manufacturers like BYD, there are also three Chinese EV companies that are publicly traded through American depositary shares.\nBYD Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:BYDDY)\nBYD, which means build your dreams, is the automotive subsidiary of the Chinese multinational BYD Co Ltd. It was founded in January 2003, following BYD Company's acquisition of Tsinchuan Automobile Company. The company produces automobiles, buses, electric bicycles, forklifts, rechargeable batteries, and trucks. The current model range of automobiles includes electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and petrol-engined vehicles. Thirteen years ago, on the advice of his famously skeptical lieutenant, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett made a $232 million investment in BYD, a relatively unknown Chinese car company.\nBy parlaying BYD's rechargeable battery technology into a fast-growing carmaking operation, it gained a foothold in the fledgling electric vehicle market, building longer-lasting batteries and cheaper vehicles than American and Japanese manufacturers were managing to do at the time. In BYD, Buffett and Munger believed they had found a company with a shot at one day becoming the largest player in a global automobile market that was inevitably going electric.\nBYD's start to 2021 was strong with 19,871 plug-in electric cars sold in January in China, including hybrid plug-ins. That was a big increase over 2020 but not as much as 2019.\nLI Auto (LI)\nLixiang, formerly known as Chehejia (\"Car and Home\"), was founded in 2015 and went public in the U.S. on July 30th, 2020. It is a Beijing-based electric-vehicle startup with vertically integrated manufacturing. It designs, researches, manufactures, sells, and offers services featuring a few models of electric vehicles.\nThe company's SUVs are hybrids of a sort. They use electric motors (one on the front axle and one on the rear), but those motors are powered by a combination of a 40.5kWh battery packanda 1.2-liter turbocharged engine paired to a 45-liter fuel tank and a 100kW electric generator, which generates power for the battery pack in real-time. The idea is that the car can be driven for about 100 miles on battery power alone, but it has a total range of nearly 500 miles when leveraging the combustion engine generator.\nThe Company's primary product is an SUV under its brand Li ONE. It also sells peripheral products and provides related services, such as charging stalls, vehicle internet connection services, and extended lifetime warranties. Li Auto is looking to sell a variety of SUVs built on its hybrid technology that range from around $21,000 to about $70,000. The company started shipping its first model in late 2019. It's a midsize SUV is well-appointed and has lots of touchscreens and technology. A full-size premium version is planned for release in 2022.\nDeliveries of Li ONEs were 14,464 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a 67.0% quarter-over-quarter increase and setting a new quarterly record. Deliveries for the full year 2020 reached 32,624 vehicles. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $635 million.\nLI auto went public on July 30th, 2020, raising $1.1 billion at an initial price of $15.50 per share but quickly reached almost $24. It is currently valued at approximately $37 billion at a price of approximately $25.72 per share.\nXPeng (XPEV)\nXiaopeng (XPeng) Motors is a Chinese electric vehicle and technology company that designs and manufactures smart cars. It was founded in 2015 and went public on August 27, 2020, using American depository shares, raising about $1 billion. To date, it has raised about $2.6 billion.\nXPeng aims its EVs at technology-savvy middle-class Chinese consumers, with prices ranging from $22,000 to $45,000 after government subsidies. In some ways, it is a Tesla knock-off at a much lower price. XPeng started production of the G3 in November 2018, and as of July 31, 2020, delivered 18,741. It started production of the P7 and began delivery in May 2020, and as of July 31, 2020, it had delivered 1,966 EVs. The P7 has a range of more than 400 miles. It plans to launch a third Smart EV, a sedan, in 2021. The G3 was among the top-three best-selling electric SUVs in China in 2019.\nXPeng is interesting because it has a platform strategy and is moving aggressively into autonomous driving. It uses a platform strategy to expand product offerings by launching one Smart EV model each year to broaden the addressable market. It builds new models on two highly flexible Smart EV platforms, called David and Edward, respectively. The David platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,600 millimeters to 2,800 millimeters, and the Edward platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,800 millimeters to 3,100 millimeters. It also adopted a platform approach for software systems.\nXPeng claims to be developing an autonomous driving capability for its EVs. The P7 is the first production vehicle to feature the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Xavier system-on-a-chip (SoC) autonomous driving platform. The company's Smart Electric Platform Architecture (SEPA) runs on 2 chips - NVIDIA for the XPILOT and Qualcomm's Snapdragon™ 820A for intelligent services and infotainment, including cameras inside and outside, radars, HD-map, and ultrasonic sensors. Like Tesla, it claims it can create sufficiently-autonomous driving without lidar.\nTo enhance brand recognition and allow more people to experience its Smart EVs, it deployed a small number of Smart EVs in a ride-hailing service in Guangzhou on a trial basis, but it has no current plan to scale up a ride-hailing service.\nXpeng sees first-quarter 2021 deliveries rising 450% year-over-year to 12,500 vehicles. Revenues are expected to increase 533% from a year ago. The company didn't provide bottom-line estimates for the quarter, but will likely post another net loss as it ramps up manufacturing, invests in R&D, and builds out a new manufacturing plant set to open in 2022.\nXpeng reported selling 12,964 vehicles in Q4 2020, up 303% from a year ago. It delivered a total of 27,041 vehicles in 2020, up 112%. It makes the P7 sedan, a rival to the made-in-China Tesla Model 3, and the small G3 SUV.\nThe stock opened on August 27, 2020 at a price of $15 and a valuation of $11 billion, but its stock jumped more than 40% shortly after. Its current valuation is about $35 billion at a stock price of approximately $36.13 per share. It had about $300 million in revenue in 2019 with a loss of about $500 million.\nNio (NIO)\nUnlike previous companies, Nio has been a public company for some time. It originally went public in the U.S. back in September of 2018, selling IPO shares at $6.26 and raising $1 billion.\nNio's IPO was far from smooth. After going public at $6.26 per share, it traded down to nearly $1. Then in the middle of the coronavirus outbreak, Nio received a much-needed investment of $1 billion from investors, including state-backed entities.\nNio designs, jointly manufactures, and sells smart and connected premium electric vehicles, attempting to develop next-generation technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving, and artificial intelligence. Joint manufacturing means that it uses a state-owned contract manufacturer to build its cars.\nNio plans to provide customers with comprehensive, convenient, and innovative charging solutions and other user-centric services. It began deliveries of the ES8, a 7-seater high-performance premium electric SUV in China in June 2018, and its variant, the six-seater ES8, in March 2019. Nio officially launched the ES6, a 5-seater high-performance premium electric SUV, in December 2018 and began deliveries in June 2019. It officially launched the EC6, a 5-seater smart premium electric Coupe SUV, in December 2019 with deliveries in 2020.\nNio sold 17,353 EVs in Q4/2020 and 43,728 for the year. It warned a shortage in chips and batteries will force a production slowdown to 7,500 a month in Q2 from 10,000 vehicles a month in February.\nNio currently trades at more than $43 per share, including a big jump recently, for a valuation of approximately $48 billion. It had revenue of $2.3 billion in 2019 for a loss of $3.8 billion.\nSummary\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this should provide exciting new investment opportunities. However, the investment terrain is complex. There are dozens of new start-ups where the public can now invest that were previously exclusively venture capital investment opportunities. Many of these are following different roads to success. There are legacy auto manufacturers that could prosper or get destroyed in this transition. There are some exciting new EV company opportunities in China. And then there is Tesla.\nThis EV roadmap is intended to help investors explore different roads to investment by explaining the basic strategies for these EV companies. These roads can have different opportunities and risks, and the roadmap helps to frame these. Above all, valuation is an overriding risk that is highlighted throughout this article.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3863795,"gmtCreate":1616508046937,"gmtModify":1680781431887,"authorId":3563253186452228,"author":{"id":3563253186452228,"idStr":"3563253186452228","authorId":3563253186452228,"name":"Sheryl85","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7a9183a9332355f694e2f0af874b0ed","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":353956903,"type":1,"supId":3858869,"prevId":0,"content":"[强]","text":"[强]","html":"[强]"},{"id":3858869,"gmtCreate":1616462930629,"gmtModify":1680781362092,"authorId":3570923041276809,"author":{"id":3570923041276809,"idStr":"3570923041276809","authorId":3570923041276809,"name":"potatochip","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279b09d8c5dbf0fd92a959709ef9b5ff","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":353956903,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Yeah!","text":"Yeah!","html":"Yeah!"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":353927330,"gmtCreate":1616457197420,"gmtModify":1704794265932,"author":{"id":"3566244878628904","authorId":"3566244878628904","name":"Wallstrtbets","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c38bbee1121ea92508ad9508fa15c5e","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3566244878628904","authorIdStr":"3566244878628904"},"htmlText":"EV with self charging battery.","listText":"EV with self charging battery.","text":"EV with self charging battery.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353927330","repostId":1196402560,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196402560","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616134696,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196402560?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-19 14:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"New Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196402560","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, an","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>It's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.</li>\n <li>Last October, I wrote a popular article providing a roadmap for investing in electric vehicles, but since then, so much has changed: new entrants, new strategies, fluctuating valuations, etc.</li>\n <li>So, I updated and greatly expanded the previous EV investment roadmap.</li>\n <li>This update includes a deeper look at valuations for 23 EV companies with revenue projections, when available.</li>\n <li>It also classifies these EV companies into their primary market categories and summarizes their different strategies.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb96acc615cba9c7842860658c019ab1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\">Photo by Sven Loeffler/iStock via Getty Images\nMy article&nbsp;Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap&nbsp;published five months ago, was popular, and some followers have requested an update. Many new EV companies entered the market, most of them through SPACs. Valuations fluctuated wildly, and there has been a great deal of publicity around these companies.\nThis new updated EV investment roadmap is greatly expanded. In addition to updating the strategies and progress of companies previously discussed, I expanded the number of companies covered. This article also groups EV companies into their primary markets, enabling better comparisons and evaluation of market opportunities. In addition, it includes a comparative valuation chart showing every company's market cap with a comparison to projected revenue, where possible. This takes advantage (good or bad) of looking at the long-term revenue forecasts provided in SPAC mergers that public companies can't make.\nIn addition to the EV manufacturers discussed here, there are also EV investment opportunities in charging station companies, battery manufacturers, and battery materials companies. These were covered in the original roadmap and may also be updated in a later article.\nApproximately 2 million EVs were sold in 2019, and although the number declined along with all auto sales in 2020, it is forecasted to increase in 2021 and reach 8-10 million by 2025. Some forecast that EV sales will be greater than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2030, or even earlier. The automobile market appears to be moving toward a historical transformation, and exceptional investment gains can be made by anticipating new emerging industries and investing in the eventual winners of those new industries. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)are obvious examples. Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to create a new emerging industry.\nThere are also significant risks. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to be released in the next three years, which will drive rapid growth in EV sales. However, the expected sales from these new models, as well as the increasing expectations from Tesla, most likely exceed the total projected market. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the companies covered here won't exist five years from now. It reminds me of the internet bubble of the late 1990s when scores of internet-based companies went public with little or no revenue. Almost all of these failed within three years -- however, a couple, including Amazon, went on to enormous success.\nEVs provide a major new investment opportunity with high risks. To succeed, you need to have a clear EV investment roadmap.\nSo, how can you invest in this new emerging market? The EV landscape is complex and investment opportunities are varied. While Tesla is the unquestioned leader in EVs, some consider it overvalued and unlikely to show exceptional returns to new investors. The current U.S. legacy automakers are committed to introducing many new EVs in the next few years, and they have some entrenched advantages with volume manufacturing capabilities, a dealer infrastructure, and loyal customers. There are exciting new EV start-ups in the U.S. that have come public this year, mostly through Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), and there are several interesting publicly traded Chinese EV manufacturers.\nThis new roadmap for EV investment classifies companies into three primary markets segments:\n<ul>\n <li>TheConsumer Retailsegment includes EVs sold to consumers individually, such as SUVs, pickup trucks, sedans, etc.</li>\n <li>TheCommercial Deliverysegment includes local delivery EV vans and trucks sold to fleets.</li>\n <li>TheMedium- and Long-Haul Truckingsegment includes heavier Class 4 - Class 8 trucks, as well as special industrial vehicles.</li>\n</ul>\nIn addition, it categorizesLegacy ManufacturersandChinese EV Companies. This enables investors to evaluate investment opportunities by considering unique opportunities within each market segment.\nThere is an enormous amount of investment optimism for EVs, and retail investors have been aggressively buying into EV stocks with seemingly no regard for valuation. Then there is the additional challenge of valuing companies with no revenue, especially those coming public through SPACs. So, valuation is an important investment consideration.\nSo let's start by looking at an overview of comparative EV valuations.\nEV Investment Valuation Overview\nThe following chart summarizes valuations for 23 EV companies, including several legacy companies. For SPACs, market cap estimates are computed using the pro forma number of shares at closing, otherwise using the valuation of the SPAC prior to closing drastically underestimates the valuation, which may be misleading to novice investors. Price/Sales ratios (market cap divided by revenue) are used to compare valuations. As a benchmark, current P/S ratios vary. For example, auto and truck companies have a ratio of 2.7X. Software companies have the highest ratios of over 10X.\nIn the chart, companies that currently have revenue show current P/S ratios. Where projections are available, projected P/S ratios are computed. A note of caution, however. Many of the EV companies came public through SPACs and published their projections (which public companies cannot do), and many of these are likely to prove unrealistic.\nAll of the longer-term revenue projections come from the company (C) forecasts with a SPAC. Some of these may turn out to be accurate, not many are most likely unrealistic. Some, like Lucid, Faraday, and Arrival forecast hitting more than $10 billion in revenue in a few years, when it took Tesla more than 10. Things are different now and they might achieve these, but they could also find that it will take longer to complete development, ramp up production, and create enough customer demand. Many companies may also find that there will be significant capital requirements to achieve this type of growth, and shareholders will be diluted.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc360dfa7de01516b7f68d5962cf3017\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"883\">\nTesla, the \"gold standard\" in EVs, has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, which many people believe is overvalued. Its market cap is approximately 20X 2020 revenue and 10X estimated 2022 revenue.\nTesla (TSLA)\nIn the U.S., and to a lesser extent in China, Tesla is the dominant EV provider. It has approximately 60% of the U.S. EV market and about 20% of the market in China. I own a Tesla and love it, but an investment in Tesla stock requires getting comfortable with its valuation. Tesla has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, although declining lately, which some consider still overvalued while others see upside potential.\nThe investment opportunity with Tesla is based on the expectation that it will continue to dominate the EV market, or at least maintain significant market share, despite much greater competition from the expected introduction of hundreds of new EV models in the next few years.\nThere is a great deal already published about Tesla, so I'll move on.\nLegacy Automakers\nSome people think that the legacy automakers will simply fade away. Historically, that was the case in some other industries, but it is not going to happen to most automakers. They are not standing still waiting to become obsolete. Most have aggressive strategies to replace ICE vehicles with EVs. GM plans to invest $27 billion and build and launch as many as 30 new EV models by 2025. Ford plans to invest $29 billion in EVs by 2025 and launch as many as 16 EVs in the next two years. Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY)has also committed billions to develop new EVs.\nThe competitive advantage that legacy automakers have in selling their new EVs is their dealer network. Will new EV customers prefer to continue going to their regular auto dealer to buy their new EV?\nAlmost all legacy automakers worldwide are developing and launching EVs including Volkswagen, Peugeot, Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi, Hyundai/Kia. Let's look a little more closely at GM and Ford as the leaders in the U.S.\nGeneral Motors (GM)\nGM has committed to introducing 20 new electric vehicles by 2023, including EVs across Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC, and Buick. It recently announced that it has already sold out the first-year production of its Hummer electric pickup. By mid-decade, it expects to sell a million EVs per year in its two largest markets: North America and China. As a reference point, Tesla reported deliveries of 367,500 vehicles globally in 2019.\nGM has a solid platform strategy for its EVs. It plans on building its EVs using five interchangeable drive units and three different motors from its Ultium Drive System platform. Ultium energy options range from 50 to 200 kWh, which could enable an estimated range of up to 400 miles. Most of its EVs will have 400-volt battery packs and up to 200 kW fast-charging capability while the truck platform will have 800-volt battery packs and 350 kW fast-charging capabilities.\nThe key building blocks of the Ultium battery system are large-scale, high-energy cells. Engineered in partnership with LG Energy Solutions, they use both advanced chemistry and a smart cell design that's optimized for a broad portfolio of EVs. GM engineers and scientists are actively researching and testing new elements in battery chemistry to lower costs and improve charge times. Ultium can contain either vertically- or horizontally-stacked cells to integrate into vehicle design: vertically for trucks, SUVs, and crossovers, or horizontally for cars and performance vehicles. As new chemistry is developed and becomes available, the battery management system could digitally update the modules.\nGM also has other EV opportunities with its BrightDrop commercial EV service and its Cruise subsidiary. BrightDrop will not just sell delivery EVs, it will provide an entire service platform for commercial delivery customers. Its set of electric delivery vehicles starts with the EV600 and includes the BrightDrop EP1, a pod-like electric pallet. SeeGeneral Motors' Aggressive EV/AV Strategies May Payoff Big.\nWith its highest stock price of $61.65, GM's current market cap is approximately $89 billion, increasing primarily because of its progress with EVs. This approximately 3X valuation in 2018, but still only 13% of Tesla.\nFord (F)\nFord is also investing heavily in EVs. It just introduced the Mustang Mach-E, a battery-powered crossover with sports car styling, and plans to introduce an all-electric version of its best-selling F-150 pickup later this year. Also, planned is an electric edition of the full-size Transit van, which has been popular in the commercial delivery market. Ford has confirmed plans to build a luxury Lincoln crossover on a battery-powered platform provided by Rivian. The automaker also plans to introduce two new midsize electric crossovers, one each for the Ford and Lincoln brands by 2023.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd8523e15bccc57790940d4218f7b94e\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"1080\">Mustang Mach-E. Source: Ford\nFord's market cap is approximately $51 billion, twice its previous market cap, and also increasing.\nConsumer Retail EV Companies\nThe consumer retail market has some unique characteristics for new EV companies. Sales are made individually, not in fleets. This diversifies the risk upon launch because only a sufficient number of customers need to be attracted to the new EV. A wave of popularity can provide terrific momentum.\nHowever, the lack of a dealer network can be an impediment. Selling EVs directly to consumers instead of through dealers is prohibited in most states. By law, auto manufacturers can't compete with franchised dealers. These are laws that go back many decades to protect dealers. This can be a major impediment for new companies without established independent dealer franchises. So, new AV companies. like Tesla, need to sell their vehicles online. Tesla has successfully done this, but it took a lot of work and time. Lack of a dealer network also creates impediments in service.\nIn addition, over the next 4-5 years, autonomous capabilities will be increasingly important to luxury vehicles. This may prove to be a challenge to start-up EV companies because they can't afford to develop this technology.\nLet's look closer at the alternative consumer retail EV investments.\nLucid Motors (CCIV)\nLucid was founded in 2007 under the name Atieva and originally focused on building electric vehicle batteries and powertrains for other vehicle manufacturers. The company rebranded itself as Lucid Motors in October 2016 and shifted its strategy to develop an all-electric, high-performance, luxury vehicle. Shortly after that, it encountered financial difficulties and struggled to get short-term funding. In 2018 it raised more than $1 billion in investment, primarily from Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund, and gave up a majority of the company.\nLucid Motors reached an agreement to become a publicly-traded company through a merger with the SPAC Churchill Capital IV Corp., in one of the largest deals SPAC EV deals. The combined company, in which Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund will continue to be the largest shareholder, had a transaction equity value of $11.75 billion (for $10/share). At the same time, it closed a PIPE investment priced at $15 a share, giving it an implied pro forma equity value of $24 billion. Rumors about this deal circulated before the transaction was formally announced, making it one of the most anticipated SPAC deals. The hype and speculation drove up the stock price of Churchill Capital IV Corp. from its opening price of $10 a share to almost $60. I believe that some of this may have been driven by novice SPAC investors who didn't realize that the valuation of CCIV didn't include the eventual valuation of Lucid. The share price dropped more than 30% after the details of the deal were announced. It's also likely that Lucid renegotiated the terms of the merger based on the price jump.\nThe company's first product is the Lucid Air, a well-equipped luxury electric vehicle that features 406 miles of projected range and 480 horsepower with a starting price of $77,400, or $69,900 after the U.S. Federal Tax Credit of $7,500. This new Lucid Air model is positioned as a high-performance, ultra-efficient luxury EV sedan in a line of future vehicles that are expected to include Lucid Air Touring, Grand Touring, and Dream Edition versions.\nThe company plans to begin production and deliveries of the Lucid Air in North America in the second half of 2021. Previously the company aimed to begin deliveries earlier in 2021. It intends to sell the car in Europe in 2022, followed by China in 2023. Lucid vehicles will be produced at its new factory in Casa Grande, Arizona. The company plans to expand the factory in phases in the coming years to have the capacity to produce 365,000 units per year at scale. The initial phase of the $700 million factory construction was completed late last year and will have the capacity to produce 30,000 vehicles a year.\nLucid also apparently has a commitment to build an assembly plant in Saudi Arabia, which was rumored to be a condition of the $1 billion investment from the Saudi public fund. The Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund also provided $600 million in bridge financing and invested in the SPAC deal as well. So, while this assembly plant may be expensive and may not be critical, it will most likely need to happen.\nLucid has ambitious plans to achieve $14 billion in revenue in 2025, and its current stock price at $29.17, which gives it a market cap of more than $46 billion, may already reflect those ambitions. Its market cap is roughly the same as Ford.\nFisker (FSR)\nFisker, which had its origins with Fisker Automotive, is an interesting story that ended in bankruptcy. Henrik Fisker originally co-founded Fisker Automotive in 2007. He was responsible for designing many premium cars such as the Aston Martin. Subsequently, Fisker Automotive had to deal with a Tesla lawsuit against Fisker Automotive alleging it stole Tesla's technology, a controversial $528.7 million conditional loan from the Department of Energy, a recall of its battery produced by A123, and the loss of several hundred vehicles in hurricane Sandy. Henrik Fisker resigned in March 2013 because of disagreements over business strategy and in November 2013, Fisker filed its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case.\nHowever, Henrik Fisker retained the Fisker brand and trademarks, and in 2016 he started another electric vehicle company named Fisker Inc. with the Fisker brand and trademarks. In 2019, Fisker shifted from developing a sports car with a solid-state battery to the Ocean SUV featuring a lithium-ion battery, which it later abandoned for a solid-state battery.\nFisker is positioning itself in a unique segment for those who want the most environmentally friendly EV. While this may be an early growth segment for EVs, it's difficult to estimate its eventual competitive advantage and the size of this environmentally-friendly market segment.\nThe Ocean is a crossover made of recycled metal and plastic with an expected base price of $37,499, and an expected lease of less than $400 a month. Fisker's plan is essentially a lease-only business model that lets customers keep a vehicle for years or return it at any time. It aims to source motors, batteries, and other components from technical partnerships with automakers and will outsource production from existing auto plants. Fisker is currently taking reservations at $250 for the Ocean. It also announced an agreement with Foxconn to jointly develop a vehicle pioneering a new market segment to be sold globally under the Fisker brand commencing in Q4 2023. at the end of 2022. Production will start at Magna Steyr's manufacturing facilities in Europe. At the end of February 2021, it had 12,467 cancellable reservations.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/924a617c90fc3276d7bdab8c64ebfdcf\" tg-width=\"744\" tg-height=\"389\">Fisker Ocean. Source: Fisker\nFisker went public using a SPAC (Spartan Energy). The original combination with SPAQ in October 2020 was valued at $2.9 billion with a cash investment of approximately $1 billion. The stock currently trades at approximately $21 per share, after reaching a high of $28.50, from the original price of $10, which is a market cap of $4.6 billion. Fisker projects $3.3 billion in revenue in 2023. It had almost $1 billion in cash at the end of 2020 and expected to use almost half of this in 2021: $250 million on operating expenses and $250 million in capital investments. If the Ocean is delayed into 2023, Fisker risks missing its revenue objective and will potentially need additional cash to complete development and launch.\nFaraday Future (PSAC)\nFaraday Future was originally established in May 2014 by Chinese businessman Jia Yueting. It is headquartered in Los Angeles and has offices in Silicon Valley, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu. Faraday Future also had a turbulent history. In 2016, it struggled financially, and in 2017 some key executives departed over a dispute about financial issues. They later founded Canoo.\nIn December 2018 the company announced layoffs due to a cash crunch and financial troubles. The company's founder Jia Yueting filed for personal bankruptcy in the United States' federal court in Delaware on October 14, 2019. Following Jia's personal bankruptcy, he decided to step down from his role as CEO of Faraday Future in order to assume a new position as the Chief Product and User Officer. He was replaced as CEO by Carsten Breitfeld, the former CEO at rival electric vehicle startup Byton.\nSomehow, Faraday was able to raise $2.3 billion in private funding over 5 rounds from a variety of investors. In early 2018, it received $1.5 billion in funding from an undisclosed investor from Hong Kong.\nFaraday's flagship product offering will be the FF 91, featuring 1,050 HP, 0-60 mph in less than 2.4 seconds, zero gravity seats with the largest 60-degree reclining angles, and a user experience designed to create a mobile, connected, and luxurious living space. The FF 91 is targeted to launch in 2022.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e38bfb3211c72bb73bc26f2ebe296fe\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"854\">FF 91. Source: Faraday Future\nIts strategic partners include one of China's top three OEMs and a critical Chinese city, which the company believes will help establish its presence in the Chinese vehicle market.\nFaraday Future plans several cars based on its Variable Platform Architecture. FF 91 is the first production vehicle and flagship model. Pricing will range between $120,000 and upwards of $200,000, which places it against formidable opponents. Faraday Future is already looking forward to expanding its range with a pair of smaller models named FF 81 and FF 71. The FF 81 is planned to be priced at $75,000 to 95,000 with a 2023 release. The FF 71 is planned to be priced at $45,000 to $65,000 with a planned release of 2024.\nThe Primary Manufacturing Facility for FF 91 is in Hanford, CA with contract manufacturing for future models in Gunsan, South Korea.\nFaraday Future is planning high-Level automation with a Level-3 capable system using a redundant safety architecture based on NVIDIA Xavier System-on-a-chip. It will be capable of highway auto-drive and hardware ready for advanced auto-drive. It is targeting full autonomous valet parking &amp; summon in any parking lot or structure. Eventually, it expects full auto-drive, including full 360˚ sensor coverage for advanced auto-drive &amp; auto-park features.\nIn January 2021, Faraday Future announced that the company would go public through a reverse merger with the special purpose acquisition company Property Solutions Acquisition Corp. (PSAC). The combined company will be valued at $3.4 billion. Faraday Future is expected to set up contract manufacturing operations in China through their partnership with Geely. Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn is also expected to serve as an additional strategic partner.\nFaraday Future projects $10.5 billion in revenue in 2024 and $21.5 billion in 2025. Revenue is expected to start in 2022 with the delivery of 2,400 vehicles for $504 million. Most likely these projections could prove to be optimistic. At a current stock price of approximately $12.80, it has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nLordstown Motors (RIDE)\nLordstown Motors based in Lordstown, Ohio, was originally founded in 2018 by Steve Burns, the former CEO of Workhorse Group. The company licensed technology from Workhorse in return for royalties and a 10% ownership. Lordstown is named after the famous GM Lordstown manufacturing plant, which it acquired in November 2019 in an unusual transaction. GM announced that it was closing the plant and was under a great deal of pressure for that decision. So, GM \"sold\" the plant to a company that was renamed Lordstown for an estimated $20 million that it loaned to the acquiring company. Subsequently, the sale was redefined to be part of a $75 million investment by GM, of which $50 million was an in-kind exchange for the plant.\nLordstown went public through the SPAC DiamondPeak Holdings Corp. in 2020. It currently has more than 400 employees.\nIts first product is the Lordstown Endurance, a full-sized EV pickup truck. Lordstown is positioning Endurance for the pickup fleet market segment. The expected price is $52,000+, and it claimed to have more than 100,000 pre-orders by January 2021. However, a recent research article published by a short seller claimed \"Our research has revealed that Lordstown's order book consists of fake or entirely non-binding orders, from customers that generally do not even have fleets of vehicles.\" Lordstown is disputing that article.\nIt believes the fleet pickup market segment is underserved with no current EV-focused competition. It estimates that the full-sized pick-up truck fleet market is 1.2 million vehicles per year in the U.S., but it's more fragmented than other truck fleets. Pickup \"fleets\" tend to be much smaller and local, so there may not be much of a market distinction for a small company buying several EV pickups from a traditional auto dealer. About half of the total U.S. pickup market is classified as fleet sales, meaning more than one.\nEven though Lordstown is targeting the commercial fleet market, it is a similar product to the Ford EV F-150. So I classify it in the consumer EV category. It is a class 2 vehicle. Lordstown also may enter the SUV market in the longer-term.\nThe Endurance will compete against future models from Rivian and Tesla, as well as Ford and GM in ICE pick-ups and their upcoming EV pick-ups. Ford plans on selling its EV F-150 in mid-2022. Initial production of the Endurance is expected in the second half of 2021, so it may have a short market advantage. Nevertheless, it forecasts selling 65,000 vehicles in 2023 and 107,000 in 2024. These estimates could be a large percentage of the EV pick-up market in those years.\nAt the SPAC merger, the implied valuation for Lordstown was $1.6 billion, including a $500 million PIPE and the $75 million by GM. Lordstown's financial projections appear to be aggressive. It projects to start shipping the Endurance in late 2021 with projected revenue in 2022 of $1.7 billion, increasing to $5.8 billion in 2024. Its stock price at approximately $13.60 values the company at a market cap of approximately $2.2 billion. The value of the company depends on the likelihood of achieving its projections.\nA fleet sales strategy makes sense for Lordstown since it would be too expensive to build a retail sales and service capability. However, it's not clear that this will become a distinct competitive advantage. Some small fleets may still prefer to buy their EV pickups from established local dealers with service capabilities.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nCanoo started as Evelozcity in 2017 and rebranded as Canoo in the spring of 2019. Canoo is a Los Angeles-based company that develops electric vehicles. It has over 350 employees. Canoo has designed a modular electric platform purpose-built to deliver maximum vehicle interior space, which is adaptable to support a wide range of vehicle applications for consumers and businesses. Canoo expects to launch its first consumer model in 2022, simply named the Canoo that will be available by subscription, followed shortly after by a multi-purpose delivery vehicle and a sports vehicle, each built off of the same underlying platform. Canoo went public using a SPAC (Hennessy Capital Acquisition) and now trades as GOEV.\nCanoo's all-electric skateboard-like platform is designed to support both consumer retail and commercial vehicle configurations. The EV leverages Canoo's flat skateboard architecture for a high level of usable interior space. Its commercial vehicle program, expected in 2023, addresses a projected $50B+ last-mile delivery market with an EV platform that maximizes cargo volume.\nHyundai Motor Group said it would jointly develop an electric vehicle platform with the company.\nCanoo's platform strategy is interesting. It could be used as an EV platform for custom fleets of delivery vehicles. It has no AV development, but it claims to be \"AV Ready\" which could be useful for AV companies wanting to build custom AV delivery fleets.\nIts all-electric multi-purpose delivery vehicle is expected to be priced starting at approximately $33,000. It is based on Canoo's proprietary electric platform and will be offered in two initial size variants, with others to follow. Limited availability will begin in 2022, with scaled production and launch planned for 2023. Customers can pre-order the multi-purpose delivery vehicle for a refundable deposit of $100 per vehicle\nIt plans to offer two multi-purpose delivery vehicles: the MPDV1 and the larger MPDV2. The first has a 200-foot cargo volume and a range of 130-200 miles. It offers more capacity than today's ICE delivery vehicles at an affordable price with urban mobility enabled by a space-efficient footprint. The vehicle is also designed to fit within many height-restricted areas like parking garages.\nThe MPDV2 has a cargo volume of 450 feet and a range of 90-190 miles. Its roof and step-in height enable individuals to easily walk-in the vehicle and accommodate a standing position while inside.\nThe original SPAC transaction provided approximately $600 million, with a pro forma equity value of approximately $2.4 billion. Like other SPAC mergers, its stock price has fluctuated. It currently trades at about $15.90 per share for a market cap of approximately $3.7 billion. Canoo projects $2.0 billion in revenue in 2025 from about $500 million in engineering services, $1.2 billion from its consumer vehicle subscriptions, and the remainder from its commercial program. Canoo expects revenue of more than $300 million in 2022 after the launch of its lifestyle consumer vehicle.\nSince its first products are aimed at consumers, as is most of its forecasted 2025 revenue, I categorize it primarily as a consumer EV company. However, I think the design of that Canoo vehicle may not attract enough customers. More importantly, its subscription service way of selling its EV to consumers is risky. I think it has more potential in the commercial market, however, a dual strategy (consumer and commercial) is challenging. I like its skateboard platform design and that could prove to be a competitive advantage.\nRivian\nAlthough not yet public, I include Rivian because it has plans for an IPO as soon as Sept 2021, although it could slip into 2022. There are rumors that the company is targeting a market valuation of approximately $50B. Rivian has already raised more than $8 billion to date from Amazon, Ford, T. Rowe Price, and others.\nRivian has developed and vertically integrated a connected electric platform that can be flexibly applied to a range of applications, including the company's adventure products, as well as B2B products such as the Amazon last-mile delivery vans. The company's initial products, the R1T and R1S, provide a combination of performance, off-road capability, and utility. These vehicles will be produced at Rivian's manufacturing plant in Normal, Ill., with customer deliveries expected to begin in summer 2021. The launch of the R1S three-row electric SUV will follow in August.\nAdditional lower-priced models are being planned. The expected R2 series would include at least two smaller electric vehicles to coincide with the smaller platform, then another platform for R3.\nCommercial Delivery EV Companies\nEV truck companies differ based on the type of truck they are developing. The technology and markets are very different, so I separate them into two categories. The first category includes commercial delivery vehicles.\nCompanies making EV delivery vehicles have some major advantages that could make them good investments. First, delivery vehicles typically travel less than 250 miles during a day, so they can be conveniently recharged overnight. Secondly, they are typically sold in large quantities to fleets. This means that building a retail sales infrastructure is not necessary. It only requires a small salesforce. In addition, maintenance can also be provided at the fleet's operational center, so not as many service centers are required.\nThe disadvantage in this market is that there are a relatively small number of customers that buy in large volumes, so if the EV manufacturer can't get enough large customers, they may not be able to stay in business. GM estimates the combined market opportunity for parcel and food delivery, as well as reverse logistics, in the U.S. will be more than $850 billion by 2025.\nThe commercial market is expected to be a major growth area for EVs. Other start-up automakers like Rivian as well as legacy automakers such as Ford, Daimler, and GM have announced plans to enter the segment. GM recently announced its BrightDrop ecosystem for commercial customers that includes an all-new electric delivery van, the EV600 available by the end of 2021, as well as an integrated autonomous pallet and related services.\nThis group of EV companies focuses primarily on commercial delivery. In general, these are in the light-duty trucks category, although it also includes some medium-duty trucks. This generally includes the following commercial truck classes:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 1: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 0-6,000 pounds or 0-2,722 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 2: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 6,001-10,000 pounds or 2,722-4,536 kilograms.1</li>\n <li>Class 3: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 10,001-14,000 pounds or 4,536-6,350 kilograms.</li>\n</ul>\nIt can also include somewhat larger medium-duty EV delivery trucks:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.</li>\n</ul>\nEV delivery trucks also have an advantage over ICE vehicles because they can have a greater delivery storage space. Smaller buses and transit vehicles are also included in this category.\nLast-mile package delivery is not an immediate-term autonomous vehicle opportunity because it requires a delivery person to be on the truck anyway.\nWorkhorse Group (WKHS)\nWorkhorse has been a public company for ten years. Originally AMP Electric Vehicles, it was established in 2007 as a developmental-stage vehicle electrification company, focusing on conversions. AMP Electric Vehicles went public in 2010 trading on the OTC market under the AMPD symbol. When the economic benefits of conversion became less certain, it pivoted away from passenger vehicles and began to focus on electrifying commercial vehicles. AMP acquired the Workhorse brand and the Workhorse custom chassis assembly plant in Union City. In March of 2013, AMP formally changed its name to Workhorse Group Incorporated.\nThe Company designs and builds a last-mile delivery electric vehicle. The C-Series EVs cover the larger size of commercial delivery vehicles in Classes 3-5. As part of its solutions, it also develops cloud-based, real-time telematics performance monitoring systems. It sells its vehicles to fleet customers directly and through its primary distributor, Ryder Systems. It is currently focused on bringing the C-Series electric delivery truck to market and fulfilling the existing backlog of orders.\nThe C-Series looks like a viable EV replacement for the 350,000 last-mile delivery vehicles sold in the U.S. annually. It recently announced an increased driving range from 100 miles to 160, which should open more market opportunities. It has a viable short-term go-to-market strategy selling fleets to delivery companies. It currently has test vehicles with UPS, DHL, FedEx, Amazon, and Walmart.\nWorkhorse recently lost out on the United States Postal Services Next Generation Delivery Vehicle project, however, it is in the process of challenging this decision. Additionally, its investment in Lordstown also provides an indirect investment opportunity. On November 7, 2019, the Company entered a transaction with Lordstown Motors to grant LMC a perpetual and worldwide license to certain intellectual property relating to its W-15 electric pickup truck platform and related technology in exchange for royalties, equity interest (approximately 10%) in LMC, and other considerations. This was a $320 million asset for Workhorse at the end of 2020.\nWorkhorse received a significant increase in orders in Q4/2020 but built just seven trucks in the fourth quarter due to production systems and supply chain issues. Workhorse plans to continue to take it slow, striving to build three of its composite-body battery-electric trucks a day in March with a plan to reach 10 trucks a day by the end of June. This makes its original 2021 goal of producing 1,800 trucks unlikely. It partnered with Hitachi and Hitachi Capital America (\"HCA\") to improve the Company's manufacturing, operational, and supply chain capabilities as well as to develop a national dealer network to support Workhorse's sales with vehicle financing options for both dealers and customers.\nWorkhorse has a market cap of approximately $1.9 billion. While Workhorse had ongoing revenue, unlike many other new EV companies, its revenue is still insignificant. It had a revenue of $1.4 million in 2020 and $377,000 in 2019. It has a backlog of over 8,000 vehicles but doesn't expect to be able to build many of those in 2021. It raised $270 million in capital over several financings, providing the Company with additional capital to build its backlog. It had cash of $215 million as of March 1, 2021. Because Workhorse is a traditional public company, it hasn't made long-term financial projections like SPAC-based companies.\nElectric Last Mile (FIII)\nElectric Last Mile, based in Troy Michigan, was founded by Jason Luo, former CEO of Ford China before it was acquired by China's Ningbo Joyson Electronic for $920 million in 2016, including James Taylor, former CEO of GM's Hummer brand and former CEO of electric car maker Karma Automotive. Taylor serves as the company's top executive with Luo as the company's chairman.\nThe company plans to launch a small electric delivery van (class 1-2), called the UD-1, in the third quarter of 2021, and then introduce an Urban Utility vehicle (Class 2-3) in 2022. These are expected to compete with Workhorse, Rivian, Canoo, as well as the Ford eTransit and the GMC BV1, none of which is expected to be a Class 1 vehicle.\nThe company says it has 30,000 preorders for its van, representing more than $1 billion in sales. Electric Last Miles vehicles will be based on Sokon's commercial van made in China through a joint venture with Dongfeng Automobile Co Ltd. in order to accelerate development time.\nElectric Last Mile (ELM) is expected to manufacture the vans in a former General Motors Co. Hummer plant in Mishawaka, Ind., that the company is acquiring from China's Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co. Ltd. The plant has the capacity to produce 100,000 vehicles annually with plans to build approximately 4,000 UD-1 vans by the end of 2021. The UD-1 has a starting price of $32,500 and a range of 150 miles. The battery for the vehicle is expected to be supplied by the Chinese battery company CATL.\nELM believes that it has a competitive advantage because its first vehicle, the ELM Urban Delivery, is scheduled to be available in 2021. It is based on a proven, existing platform developed and sold by Sokon Group in the Asian market, where there are 30,000 of these electric delivery vehicles driving 1.5 million miles every day. At the close of the business combination, ELM will be an independent, U.S. company producing electric vehicles in the U.S. with Sokon Group providing access to its know-how, parts supply, and field and service data.\nELM expects that the Urban Delivery vehicle will be the first electric delivery vehicle coming to market in the class 1 category (GVW of 6,000 lbs or less) in the U.S. It will also have 35% more carrying volume compared to similar ICE delivery vehicles, a critical part of the value proposition. It also anticipates that its price and greater carrying volume will allow it to take market share from the class 2 category of vehicles as well.\nIts crossover product portfolio strategy targets commercial delivery vehicles spanning from class 1 to class 3, which represents over 80% of the last mile market.\nELM anticipates $122 million in revenue in 2021, rapidly increasing to $3 billion in 2025. The price of FIII stock increased immediately following its announcement with Electric Last Mile, rising more than 40% to $14.50, but now it has dropped closer to the original deal price to $10.25 for a market cap of approximately $1.5 billion.\nGreenPower Motor Company (GP)\nGreenPower Motor Company Inc. is a Canadian battery-electric bus manufacturer with multiple models of high- and low-floor vehicles, including transit buses, school buses, and shuttles. GreenPower offers commercial vehicles for delivery, public transit, schools, vanpooling, micro-transit, shuttles, and is developing a capability of autonomous operation. It went public on August 28, 2020.\nIn 2014 GreenPower launched its first purpose-built, battery-electric bus, the EV350, 40-foot transit bus. GreenPower received its first order in 2017 for ten EV350s from the City of Porterville, California.\nGreenPower's electric buses are purpose-built and designed to be all-electric, allowing it to put the battery and propulsion system in optimized locations that provide weight and structural advantages. Its primary EV is the EV Star with more than 120 vehicles delivered. It comes in several variations:\n<ul>\n <li>EV Star - Up to 19 passengers</li>\n <li>EV Star Plus - Up to 24 passengers</li>\n <li>EV Star ADA - Passenger and curbside lift for ADA</li>\n <li>EV Star Cargo - 5,000 pounds of load</li>\n <li>EV Star Cargo Plus - 570 cubic feet of cargo space.</li>\n</ul>\nIts EV school bus seats up to 90 students and has a range of up to 150 miles.\nGreenPower had revenue of $13.5 million in 2020 It has about $21 million in cash. It's an interesting alternative since it is already shipping EVs, has revenue, and also has a lower market cap of less than $1 billion. Since it did a traditional IPO, it hasn't published longer-term financial forecasts.\nArrival (CIIC)\nArrival was founded in 2015 in London to make a variety of commercial electric vehicles. It has approximately 1,200 employees across 11 cities in 8 countries. In November 2020, Arrival and the SPAC CIIG entered into a business combination agreement with an implied valuation of $5.39 billion.\nArrival plans on releasing four commercial EVs over the next few years.\n<ul>\n <li>Q4/2021: An electric bus for 8-125 passengers and a range of 240-400km</li>\n <li>Q3/2022: An electric delivery van with a payload of 975-2,000kg and a range of 150-340km</li>\n <li>2022: A larger electric van with a payload of 4,000 kg and a range of 190-400km</li>\n <li>2023: a small vehicle platform with a range of 100-300km.</li>\n</ul>\nThis mix provides a nice diversified portfolio of EVs. Arrival claims to have received orders from UPS for 10,000 vans. It plans a unique flexible manufacturing approach using micro-factories with each projected to manufacture 10,000 vans per year. All of its vehicles use a modular skateboard electric platform.\nArrival ambitiously projects $14.1 billion in revenue in 2024. Half of that revenue is expected from delivery vans, 22% from buses, and the rest from the large van and its small vehicle platform. With CIIC's stock price at $24.80 per share, Arrival's current market cap is relatively high at approximately $15.0 billion. Justifying its market cap depends on its ability to release, sell, and produce its four commercial EVs.\nProterra (ACTC)\nProterra is a commercial electric vehicle company with over a decade of production experience. The Company has designed an end-to-end, flexible technology platform that claims to deliver higher performance and a low total cost of ownership to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end customers.\nProterra, Inc., was originally founded in Golden, Colorado, by Dale Hill in 2004. Later the company wanted to take the lead in creating zero-emission, U.S.-based transit buses. In 2010 it moved its manufacturing plant from Golden, Colorado to Greenville, South Carolina. In 2015, Proterra was awarded a $3 million grant from the California Energy Commission to fund the design, development, and construction of the company's battery-electric transit bus manufacturing line in the City of Industry, California. It moved its headquarters from Greenville, South Carolina, to Burlingame, California, in October 2015. Proterra raised more than $600 million in funding.\nIt is going public through the SPAC ArcLight (ACTC) with a pro forma valuation of $1.6 billion. Upon completion of the transaction, Proterra expects to have up to $825 million in cash to fund growth initiatives, including R&amp;D and the expansion of its next-generation battery program.\nProterra has three complementary businesses:\n<ul>\n <li>Proterra Powered: Delivering battery systems and electrification solutions to commercial vehicle manufacturers</li>\n <li>Proterra Transit:Providing an electric transit bus OEMs</li>\n <li>Proterra Energy:Offering turnkey charging and energy management solutions.</li>\n</ul>\nThe company's battery systems have been proven in more than 16 million service miles driven by its fleet of transit vehicles and validated through partnerships with commercial vehicle OEMs. Proterra has produced and delivered more than 300 megawatt-hours of battery systems, more than 550 heavy-duty electric transit buses, and installed 54 megawatts of charging systems.\nProterra expected $193 million of revenue in 2020, with an estimated $750 million in existing orders and backlog. It projects $2.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with about 1/3 coming from its Transit business, and 2/3 From Powered &amp; Energy. At ACTC's current stock price of $17.85, Proterra has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nRivian\nRivian (see earlier description in consumer retail) will also compete in the commercial delivery market. It has been working with Amazon (a major investor) to build large electric delivery vans for Prime. Developed specifically for Amazon, a small fleet of Prime vans is on the road now, testing deliveries to customers and gathering feedback. In late fall, it could grow to a large fleet as Rivian ramps up the volume.\nThe EV range of 150 miles is tailored to Amazon's use cycle to optimize the size, weight, and cost of the commercial vehicle. Rivian has three sizes of batteries, but Amazon is starting with just one of them.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nSee the previous summary under consumer retail EV.\nMedium and Long-Haul Trucking EV Companies\nCompanies developing medium- and long-haul EV trucks face a more difficult challenge with battery range. These trucks haul much more weight than commercial delivery vehicles and because they are designed for long distances, they can't stop every 200-300 miles for recharging.\nFor this reason, many of these companies are using unique hybrid technologies for their trucks. The EV trucks in this category are primarily heavy-duty but also include some medium-duty trucks and specialty vehicles. A couple of the companies focus on retrofitting trucks to be electric.\nMedium-Duty Trucks\nThe medium-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 4, 5, and 6:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 6: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 19,501-26,000 pounds or 8,846-11,793 kilograms.1</li>\n</ul>\nHeavy-Duty Trucks\nThe heavy-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 7 and 8:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 7: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 26,001 to 33,000 pounds or 11,794-14,969 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 8: This class of trucks has a GVWR of greater than 33,001 pounds or 14,969 kilograms and includes all tractor-trailers.</li>\n</ul>\nThe Tesla Semi is a battery vehicle planned for a range of 300 or 500 miles and a speed of 60 MPH with 80,000 lbs of cargo. Tesla plans to start shipping the Semi later this year when it expects to have sufficient cell volume to meet its needs with the production of its 4680 battery pack.\nNikola(NASDAQ:NKLA)\nNikola has been a very controversial company. Founded in 2015, it originally had two different strategies. Its primary strategy is to lease fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) Class-8 heavy trucks and provide the refueling infrastructure to corporate customers. Its second strategy was to develop the Badger EV truck using GM technology.\nNikola originally merged with a SPAC to go public, at an enterprise value of approximately $3.3 billion. On June 6th, 2020, its market cap jumped to more than $30 billion, then later it dropped because of problems with its originally planned deal with GM.\nNikola originally expected a deal with General Motors that included the production of the Nikola Badger EV pickup truck. The proposed arrangement was that GM would take a $2 billion equity stake in Nikola and in return would engineer and produce the Badger. In November 2020, GM and Nikola scrapped the original arrangement. Now it appears that GM will supply Nikola with only its Hydrotec hydrogen fuel-cell technology to integrate into the EV manufacturer's commercial class 7 and class 8 zero-emission semi-trucks. So, the Badger is probably dead.\nNikola now sees semi-trucks as the company's \"core business\" and fuel cells as an increasingly important segment of the semi-truck market thanks to their efficiency in weight and consumption. It expects to begin testing by the end of 2021.\nIt has received pre-orders from Anheuser-Busch and a few other companies, but it doesn't expect deliveries until 2023. Hydrogen fueling stations are key to its strategy, both providing a source of revenue and necessary fueling infrastructure for the trucks to operate, but they also cost a lot. In its March 2020 investor deck, Nikola said a single station capable of fueling 210 trucks a day would cost $16.6 million. Its initial planned network of 700 stations would cost roughly $11.6 billion.\nNikola was also accused of misrepresentation, and its executive chairman and founder stepped down.\nAt the time of the SPAC merger, it projected an optimistic forecast of more than $3 billion in revenue by 2024, with a net income of $145 million. Most of that revenue was expected to come from its Badger truck, which is no longer in the plans. Yet its market cap is still almost $6 billion.\nHyliion (HYLN)\nHyliion, founded in 2015 in Austin, went public in October 2020 through the SPAC Tortoise Acquisition Corp. (SHLL). In March 2019, automotive parts manufacturer Dana Inc. made an equity investment into Hyliion, and together they are manufacturing and marketing Class 8 EVs to Dana's customers, including Volvo, Navistar, and Peterbilt.\nHyliion's strategy is unique, and a very different strategy from Nikola. Essentially it generates electricity onboard the truck using compressed natural gas (CNG). This should be a benefit for longer-range trucking. Hyliion's Hypertruck concept involves an all-electric drivetrain utilizing Dana's electric motor, inverter, and axle technologies. The truck's batteries are fueled by onboard tanks of CNG. With some 700 CNG stations already operating nationwide, it believes that there no need to build out expensive superchargers or hydrogen infrastructure.\nKuwait-based logistics company, Agility, has already placed an order for 1,000 Hypertrucks with initial deliveries targeted in 2022. Combined with a fully electric drivetrain and a natural gas-powered onboard generator to recharge the battery, the Hypertruck ERX will provide more than 1,000 miles of range.\nHyliion will eventually compete with Nikola (FCEV) and the Tesla battery-based Semi, but it plans to have a longer range and lower operating costs. Its HyperTruck ERX is expected to be available in 2021. It also has a hybrid-electric truck.\nThe combination with SHLL had an estimated market cap of about $1.5 billion, with approximately $530 million going to the company, including a $325 million fully committed PIPE. At approximately $13.50 per share, its current market cap is approximately $2.2 billion, significantly down from its peak. Hyliion projects $2 billion in revenue in 2024, which it claims is only about 2% of the addressable market.\nXL Fleet (XL)\nXL Fleet is a 10-year old company that went public through the SPAC Pivotal. XL is different because it provides fleet electrification modifications for ICE trucks across a wide range of vehicle classes (class 2-5) and types. It has over 200 of the largest commercial and municipal fleets as customers, with more than 3,200 XL systems deployed and over 130 million miles driven by customers to date. XL's customer base includes FedEx, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Verizon, the City of Boston, Seattle Fire Department, Yale University, and Harvard University.\nXL's business model is essentially retrofitting existing trucks to be hybrids and then later expanding into fully electric truck conversions. It claims to be creating a fully integrated platform for this. It remains to be seen if the retrofitting business will continue to grow or will it diminish when more trucks are designed and manufactured with EV capabilities.\nUnlike some other EV companies that have no revenue yet because they are still developing products, XL is more of a small company doing low-volume retrofits. It had $7.2 million in revenue in 2019, $21 million in 2020, and estimates $76 million in 2021, but it forecasts $1.3 billion in revenue in 2024 in its investor presentation. It plans to do this by expanding its product line from hybrid to plug-in hybrid to fully electric across a broader range of trucks. It claims to have a $220 million sales pipeline for the next 12 months.\nShort-seller, Muddy Waters, claimed after talking to former XL Fleet employees, that it believed the company significantly exaggerated its order backlog, that the return on investment for the company's products was likely negative, and that it would not be able to compete with big car makers on electrification. The company thoroughly refuted these claims.\nThe original enterprise valuation was approximately $1.4 billion at a $10 share price for the merger. Its price jumped by about 35% but has since gone back down to $12.40 for a market cap of about $1.8 billion. Although XL Fleet has revenue and other EV companies don't, this may not be an advantage. It appears to be a small company for many years that has gone public at a high valuation with grand plans. The risks are in its ability to make a jump from $76 million in 2021 to $1.3 billion in 2024, as well as the question about retrofitting being replaced by new EV trucks by then.\nXos (NGAC)\nXos Trucks specializes in the field of manufacturing fully electric commercial vehicles. It features a software platform that is designed to accommodate an extensive variety of medium-duty bodies, wheelbase, and range requirements up to 200 miles. It was founded in 2016 and headquartered in North Hollywood, California. It received $20 million of investment in 2020 and now is going public through a merger with the SPAC ExtGen Acquisition Corporation (NGAC) at an estimated proforma value of $1.965 billion.\nIts focus is on medium- and heavy-duty last mile and return-to-base segments (class 5/6, class 6/7, and class 7/8) commercial fleets and specialty vehicles. Some vehicles are currently in production and in regular on-road operations with key fleet customers, and it claimed 6,000 unit orders in backlog.\nIts MD-platform is for classes 5-6 for pickup and delivery. Its HD X-Platform is an adaptable chassis for highway, vocational, and severe work conditions. Its market is for customers with highly predictable routes that allow for batteries designed for a more limited range. A significantly larger frame and smaller battery pack allow for reduced density.\nXos has a bundled all-in-one offering that allows fleets to access all the tools and services they need to go electric with a single point of contact at a fixed monthly expense.\nXos had $3 million in revenue in 2020 and estimates $14 million in 2021. However, it forecasts $5.2 billion in revenue in 2025. At the current stock price of $10.30, its market cap is approximately $2 billion, about the same as its original SPAC transaction.\nLion Electric (NGA)\nLion Electric is a Canadian company founded by Marc Bédard in 2008. Its focus is to be a leader in designing, developing, and manufacturing purpose-built urban electric vehicles; vehicles that are specifically designed as delivery trucks, refuse trucks, bucket trucks, moving trucks, school buses, and shuttle buses. It has over 300 all-electric vehicles on the road today.\nIn November 2020, it announced that it was going public through the SPAC NGA. The transaction had an estimated pro forma enterprise value of $1.5 billion.\nIt plans on seven new truck models and one new school bus, for a total of 15 all-electric vehicles, representing a full line-up from class 5 to class 8 electric trucks and a full line-up of electric school buses. Its vehicles are produced at its existing manufacturing plant, which has the capacity for the production of up to 2,500 vehicles per year. It intends to open a new plant in the U.S. capable of delivering over 20,000 Lion trucks and buses per year by 2022.\nIts all-electric class 6 and class 8 commercial urban trucks combine power, comfort, and modern technology. Custom-built chassis and cabin designed specifically for an all-electric heavy-duty vehicle. The LionC is an all-electric Type C school bus manufactured in North America. The body and chassis were specifically designed to deliver optimal performance. The LionM is an all-electric midi/minibus that meets paratransit and public transportation requirements. Created and designed specifically for the paratransit market, the is spacious and offers unique features that provide enhanced security and accessibility to the end-users.\nLion Electric had $29 million in revenue in 2020 and expects $204 million in 2021. It forecasts revenue to jump to $3.6 billion a few years later in 2024. Its current market cap is approximately $3.6 billion based on its current stock price of $18.33.\nLightning eMotors (GIK)\nLightning eMotors, formerly Lightning Systems, was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Loveland, Colorado. It provides fleet electrification for familiar commercial vehicle platforms by retrofitting them with its electric powertrains. Lightning eMotors produces electric fleet medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including delivery trucks, shuttle buses, passenger vans, ambulances, bucket trucks, chassis-cab models, and city transit buses. It focuses on urban commercial zero-emission vehicles with a full range of class 3 through class 7 battery-electric and fuel-cell electric vehicles.\nLighting eMotors helps commercial fleets achieve their sustainability goals by offering zero-emission battery-electric vans, trucks, and buses based on familiar, proven vehicles from manufacturers such as Ford and GM. It works with customers, to help them identify their unique commercial electric vehicle, charging, and grant support needs.\nThe Lightning products include integrated all-electric powertrains for the Ford Transit 350HD passenger and cargo vans, Ford E-450 shuttle bus and cutaway models, Ford F-59 step/food van, Ford F-550 cargo trucks and buses, Chevrolet 6500XD Low Cab Forward model, and 30-foot, 35-foot, and 40-foot transit buses.\nLightning has 120 vehicles on the road, and 1,500 vehicles already on order from customers. In addition to making vehicles and powertrains, Lightning also provides a full suite of charging solutions for customers.\nThe deal with GIK has an enterprise value of $650 million, although there is also an Earnout of 20.0% of total pro forma shares outstanding to Lightning eMotors shareholders if the stock crosses certain price thresholds.\nAt the current price, of $11.73, GIK has a market cap of approximately $1 billion, a little more than the original transaction valuation. Similar to XL Fleet, Lightning has the risk that retrofitting may only be an interim business opportunity until more EV trucks are produced.\nPublic Chinese EV Companies\nChina will be the biggest EV market opportunity, and EV start-ups may do better there because there isn't as much entrenched competition from domestic auto companies. China is already the largest EV market in the world, with almost a million EVs sold in 2019. Its EV market represents almost half of the global EV sales volume and is much larger than the U.S. market.\nThe Chinese government has ambitions to become a global leader in new energy vehicles. Soon after the coronavirus outbreak subsided within the country, Chinese authorities announced new policies to support the auto and electric vehicle industries.\nThese Chinese companies are traded through American depository shares (ADS) that contain certain risks. There are financial reporting and transparency risks with these companies, and on top of that, the newer companies are being classified as \"emerging growth\" companies that are already exempt from certain transparency requirements set out in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Like the previous EV stock, these stocks have also been very volatile.\nIn addition to legacy auto manufacturers like BYD, there are also three Chinese EV companies that are publicly traded through American depositary shares.\nBYD Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:BYDDY)\nBYD, which means build your dreams, is the automotive subsidiary of the Chinese multinational BYD Co Ltd. It was founded in January 2003, following BYD Company's acquisition of Tsinchuan Automobile Company. The company produces automobiles, buses, electric bicycles, forklifts, rechargeable batteries, and trucks. The current model range of automobiles includes electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and petrol-engined vehicles. Thirteen years ago, on the advice of his famously skeptical lieutenant, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett made a $232 million investment in BYD, a relatively unknown Chinese car company.\nBy parlaying BYD's rechargeable battery technology into a fast-growing carmaking operation, it gained a foothold in the fledgling electric vehicle market, building longer-lasting batteries and cheaper vehicles than American and Japanese manufacturers were managing to do at the time. In BYD, Buffett and Munger believed they had found a company with a shot at one day becoming the largest player in a global automobile market that was inevitably going electric.\nBYD's start to 2021 was strong with 19,871 plug-in electric cars sold in January in China, including hybrid plug-ins. That was a big increase over 2020 but not as much as 2019.\nLI Auto (LI)\nLixiang, formerly known as Chehejia (\"Car and Home\"), was founded in 2015 and went public in the U.S. on July 30th, 2020. It is a Beijing-based electric-vehicle startup with vertically integrated manufacturing. It designs, researches, manufactures, sells, and offers services featuring a few models of electric vehicles.\nThe company's SUVs are hybrids of a sort. They use electric motors (one on the front axle and one on the rear), but those motors are powered by a combination of a 40.5kWh battery packanda 1.2-liter turbocharged engine paired to a 45-liter fuel tank and a 100kW electric generator, which generates power for the battery pack in real-time. The idea is that the car can be driven for about 100 miles on battery power alone, but it has a total range of nearly 500 miles when leveraging the combustion engine generator.\nThe Company's primary product is an SUV under its brand Li ONE. It also sells peripheral products and provides related services, such as charging stalls, vehicle internet connection services, and extended lifetime warranties. Li Auto is looking to sell a variety of SUVs built on its hybrid technology that range from around $21,000 to about $70,000. The company started shipping its first model in late 2019. It's a midsize SUV is well-appointed and has lots of touchscreens and technology. A full-size premium version is planned for release in 2022.\nDeliveries of Li ONEs were 14,464 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a 67.0% quarter-over-quarter increase and setting a new quarterly record. Deliveries for the full year 2020 reached 32,624 vehicles. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $635 million.\nLI auto went public on July 30th, 2020, raising $1.1 billion at an initial price of $15.50 per share but quickly reached almost $24. It is currently valued at approximately $37 billion at a price of approximately $25.72 per share.\nXPeng (XPEV)\nXiaopeng (XPeng) Motors is a Chinese electric vehicle and technology company that designs and manufactures smart cars. It was founded in 2015 and went public on August 27, 2020, using American depository shares, raising about $1 billion. To date, it has raised about $2.6 billion.\nXPeng aims its EVs at technology-savvy middle-class Chinese consumers, with prices ranging from $22,000 to $45,000 after government subsidies. In some ways, it is a Tesla knock-off at a much lower price. XPeng started production of the G3 in November 2018, and as of July 31, 2020, delivered 18,741. It started production of the P7 and began delivery in May 2020, and as of July 31, 2020, it had delivered 1,966 EVs. The P7 has a range of more than 400 miles. It plans to launch a third Smart EV, a sedan, in 2021. The G3 was among the top-three best-selling electric SUVs in China in 2019.\nXPeng is interesting because it has a platform strategy and is moving aggressively into autonomous driving. It uses a platform strategy to expand product offerings by launching one Smart EV model each year to broaden the addressable market. It builds new models on two highly flexible Smart EV platforms, called David and Edward, respectively. The David platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,600 millimeters to 2,800 millimeters, and the Edward platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,800 millimeters to 3,100 millimeters. It also adopted a platform approach for software systems.\nXPeng claims to be developing an autonomous driving capability for its EVs. The P7 is the first production vehicle to feature the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Xavier system-on-a-chip (SoC) autonomous driving platform. The company's Smart Electric Platform Architecture (SEPA) runs on 2 chips - NVIDIA for the XPILOT and Qualcomm's Snapdragon™ 820A for intelligent services and infotainment, including cameras inside and outside, radars, HD-map, and ultrasonic sensors. Like Tesla, it claims it can create sufficiently-autonomous driving without lidar.\nTo enhance brand recognition and allow more people to experience its Smart EVs, it deployed a small number of Smart EVs in a ride-hailing service in Guangzhou on a trial basis, but it has no current plan to scale up a ride-hailing service.\nXpeng sees first-quarter 2021 deliveries rising 450% year-over-year to 12,500 vehicles. Revenues are expected to increase 533% from a year ago. The company didn't provide bottom-line estimates for the quarter, but will likely post another net loss as it ramps up manufacturing, invests in R&amp;D, and builds out a new manufacturing plant set to open in 2022.\nXpeng reported selling 12,964 vehicles in Q4 2020, up 303% from a year ago. It delivered a total of 27,041 vehicles in 2020, up 112%. It makes the P7 sedan, a rival to the made-in-China Tesla Model 3, and the small G3 SUV.\nThe stock opened on August 27, 2020 at a price of $15 and a valuation of $11 billion, but its stock jumped more than 40% shortly after. Its current valuation is about $35 billion at a stock price of approximately $36.13 per share. It had about $300 million in revenue in 2019 with a loss of about $500 million.\nNio (NIO)\nUnlike previous companies, Nio has been a public company for some time. It originally went public in the U.S. back in September of 2018, selling IPO shares at $6.26 and raising $1 billion.\nNio's IPO was far from smooth. After going public at $6.26 per share, it traded down to nearly $1. Then in the middle of the coronavirus outbreak, Nio received a much-needed investment of $1 billion from investors, including state-backed entities.\nNio designs, jointly manufactures, and sells smart and connected premium electric vehicles, attempting to develop next-generation technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving, and artificial intelligence. Joint manufacturing means that it uses a state-owned contract manufacturer to build its cars.\nNio plans to provide customers with comprehensive, convenient, and innovative charging solutions and other user-centric services. It began deliveries of the ES8, a 7-seater high-performance premium electric SUV in China in June 2018, and its variant, the six-seater ES8, in March 2019. Nio officially launched the ES6, a 5-seater high-performance premium electric SUV, in December 2018 and began deliveries in June 2019. It officially launched the EC6, a 5-seater smart premium electric Coupe SUV, in December 2019 with deliveries in 2020.\nNio sold 17,353 EVs in Q4/2020 and 43,728 for the year. It warned a shortage in chips and batteries will force a production slowdown to 7,500 a month in Q2 from 10,000 vehicles a month in February.\nNio currently trades at more than $43 per share, including a big jump recently, for a valuation of approximately $48 billion. It had revenue of $2.3 billion in 2019 for a loss of $3.8 billion.\nSummary\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this should provide exciting new investment opportunities. However, the investment terrain is complex. There are dozens of new start-ups where the public can now invest that were previously exclusively venture capital investment opportunities. Many of these are following different roads to success. There are legacy auto manufacturers that could prosper or get destroyed in this transition. There are some exciting new EV company opportunities in China. And then there is Tesla.\nThis EV roadmap is intended to help investors explore different roads to investment by explaining the basic strategies for these EV companies. These roads can have different opportunities and risks, and the roadmap helps to frame these. Above all, valuation is an overriding risk that is highlighted throughout this article.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>New Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNew Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-19 14:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.\nLast October, I wrote a popular article providing...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车","01211":"比亚迪股份","NKLA":"Nikola Corporation","LI":"理想汽车","GP":"GreenPower Motor Company Inc.","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","GOEV":"Canoo Inc.","WKHS":"Workhorse Group, Inc.","F":"福特汽车","002594":"比亚迪","TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来","FSR":"菲斯克","HYLN":"Hyliion Holdings Corp."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1196402560","content_text":"Summary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.\nLast October, I wrote a popular article providing a roadmap for investing in electric vehicles, but since then, so much has changed: new entrants, new strategies, fluctuating valuations, etc.\nSo, I updated and greatly expanded the previous EV investment roadmap.\nThis update includes a deeper look at valuations for 23 EV companies with revenue projections, when available.\nIt also classifies these EV companies into their primary market categories and summarizes their different strategies.\n\nPhoto by Sven Loeffler/iStock via Getty Images\nMy article Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap published five months ago, was popular, and some followers have requested an update. Many new EV companies entered the market, most of them through SPACs. Valuations fluctuated wildly, and there has been a great deal of publicity around these companies.\nThis new updated EV investment roadmap is greatly expanded. In addition to updating the strategies and progress of companies previously discussed, I expanded the number of companies covered. This article also groups EV companies into their primary markets, enabling better comparisons and evaluation of market opportunities. In addition, it includes a comparative valuation chart showing every company's market cap with a comparison to projected revenue, where possible. This takes advantage (good or bad) of looking at the long-term revenue forecasts provided in SPAC mergers that public companies can't make.\nIn addition to the EV manufacturers discussed here, there are also EV investment opportunities in charging station companies, battery manufacturers, and battery materials companies. These were covered in the original roadmap and may also be updated in a later article.\nApproximately 2 million EVs were sold in 2019, and although the number declined along with all auto sales in 2020, it is forecasted to increase in 2021 and reach 8-10 million by 2025. Some forecast that EV sales will be greater than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2030, or even earlier. The automobile market appears to be moving toward a historical transformation, and exceptional investment gains can be made by anticipating new emerging industries and investing in the eventual winners of those new industries. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)are obvious examples. Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to create a new emerging industry.\nThere are also significant risks. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to be released in the next three years, which will drive rapid growth in EV sales. However, the expected sales from these new models, as well as the increasing expectations from Tesla, most likely exceed the total projected market. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the companies covered here won't exist five years from now. It reminds me of the internet bubble of the late 1990s when scores of internet-based companies went public with little or no revenue. Almost all of these failed within three years -- however, a couple, including Amazon, went on to enormous success.\nEVs provide a major new investment opportunity with high risks. To succeed, you need to have a clear EV investment roadmap.\nSo, how can you invest in this new emerging market? The EV landscape is complex and investment opportunities are varied. While Tesla is the unquestioned leader in EVs, some consider it overvalued and unlikely to show exceptional returns to new investors. The current U.S. legacy automakers are committed to introducing many new EVs in the next few years, and they have some entrenched advantages with volume manufacturing capabilities, a dealer infrastructure, and loyal customers. There are exciting new EV start-ups in the U.S. that have come public this year, mostly through Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), and there are several interesting publicly traded Chinese EV manufacturers.\nThis new roadmap for EV investment classifies companies into three primary markets segments:\n\nTheConsumer Retailsegment includes EVs sold to consumers individually, such as SUVs, pickup trucks, sedans, etc.\nTheCommercial Deliverysegment includes local delivery EV vans and trucks sold to fleets.\nTheMedium- and Long-Haul Truckingsegment includes heavier Class 4 - Class 8 trucks, as well as special industrial vehicles.\n\nIn addition, it categorizesLegacy ManufacturersandChinese EV Companies. This enables investors to evaluate investment opportunities by considering unique opportunities within each market segment.\nThere is an enormous amount of investment optimism for EVs, and retail investors have been aggressively buying into EV stocks with seemingly no regard for valuation. Then there is the additional challenge of valuing companies with no revenue, especially those coming public through SPACs. So, valuation is an important investment consideration.\nSo let's start by looking at an overview of comparative EV valuations.\nEV Investment Valuation Overview\nThe following chart summarizes valuations for 23 EV companies, including several legacy companies. For SPACs, market cap estimates are computed using the pro forma number of shares at closing, otherwise using the valuation of the SPAC prior to closing drastically underestimates the valuation, which may be misleading to novice investors. Price/Sales ratios (market cap divided by revenue) are used to compare valuations. As a benchmark, current P/S ratios vary. For example, auto and truck companies have a ratio of 2.7X. Software companies have the highest ratios of over 10X.\nIn the chart, companies that currently have revenue show current P/S ratios. Where projections are available, projected P/S ratios are computed. A note of caution, however. Many of the EV companies came public through SPACs and published their projections (which public companies cannot do), and many of these are likely to prove unrealistic.\nAll of the longer-term revenue projections come from the company (C) forecasts with a SPAC. Some of these may turn out to be accurate, not many are most likely unrealistic. Some, like Lucid, Faraday, and Arrival forecast hitting more than $10 billion in revenue in a few years, when it took Tesla more than 10. Things are different now and they might achieve these, but they could also find that it will take longer to complete development, ramp up production, and create enough customer demand. Many companies may also find that there will be significant capital requirements to achieve this type of growth, and shareholders will be diluted.\n\nTesla, the \"gold standard\" in EVs, has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, which many people believe is overvalued. Its market cap is approximately 20X 2020 revenue and 10X estimated 2022 revenue.\nTesla (TSLA)\nIn the U.S., and to a lesser extent in China, Tesla is the dominant EV provider. It has approximately 60% of the U.S. EV market and about 20% of the market in China. I own a Tesla and love it, but an investment in Tesla stock requires getting comfortable with its valuation. Tesla has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, although declining lately, which some consider still overvalued while others see upside potential.\nThe investment opportunity with Tesla is based on the expectation that it will continue to dominate the EV market, or at least maintain significant market share, despite much greater competition from the expected introduction of hundreds of new EV models in the next few years.\nThere is a great deal already published about Tesla, so I'll move on.\nLegacy Automakers\nSome people think that the legacy automakers will simply fade away. Historically, that was the case in some other industries, but it is not going to happen to most automakers. They are not standing still waiting to become obsolete. Most have aggressive strategies to replace ICE vehicles with EVs. GM plans to invest $27 billion and build and launch as many as 30 new EV models by 2025. Ford plans to invest $29 billion in EVs by 2025 and launch as many as 16 EVs in the next two years. Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY)has also committed billions to develop new EVs.\nThe competitive advantage that legacy automakers have in selling their new EVs is their dealer network. Will new EV customers prefer to continue going to their regular auto dealer to buy their new EV?\nAlmost all legacy automakers worldwide are developing and launching EVs including Volkswagen, Peugeot, Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi, Hyundai/Kia. Let's look a little more closely at GM and Ford as the leaders in the U.S.\nGeneral Motors (GM)\nGM has committed to introducing 20 new electric vehicles by 2023, including EVs across Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC, and Buick. It recently announced that it has already sold out the first-year production of its Hummer electric pickup. By mid-decade, it expects to sell a million EVs per year in its two largest markets: North America and China. As a reference point, Tesla reported deliveries of 367,500 vehicles globally in 2019.\nGM has a solid platform strategy for its EVs. It plans on building its EVs using five interchangeable drive units and three different motors from its Ultium Drive System platform. Ultium energy options range from 50 to 200 kWh, which could enable an estimated range of up to 400 miles. Most of its EVs will have 400-volt battery packs and up to 200 kW fast-charging capability while the truck platform will have 800-volt battery packs and 350 kW fast-charging capabilities.\nThe key building blocks of the Ultium battery system are large-scale, high-energy cells. Engineered in partnership with LG Energy Solutions, they use both advanced chemistry and a smart cell design that's optimized for a broad portfolio of EVs. GM engineers and scientists are actively researching and testing new elements in battery chemistry to lower costs and improve charge times. Ultium can contain either vertically- or horizontally-stacked cells to integrate into vehicle design: vertically for trucks, SUVs, and crossovers, or horizontally for cars and performance vehicles. As new chemistry is developed and becomes available, the battery management system could digitally update the modules.\nGM also has other EV opportunities with its BrightDrop commercial EV service and its Cruise subsidiary. BrightDrop will not just sell delivery EVs, it will provide an entire service platform for commercial delivery customers. Its set of electric delivery vehicles starts with the EV600 and includes the BrightDrop EP1, a pod-like electric pallet. SeeGeneral Motors' Aggressive EV/AV Strategies May Payoff Big.\nWith its highest stock price of $61.65, GM's current market cap is approximately $89 billion, increasing primarily because of its progress with EVs. This approximately 3X valuation in 2018, but still only 13% of Tesla.\nFord (F)\nFord is also investing heavily in EVs. It just introduced the Mustang Mach-E, a battery-powered crossover with sports car styling, and plans to introduce an all-electric version of its best-selling F-150 pickup later this year. Also, planned is an electric edition of the full-size Transit van, which has been popular in the commercial delivery market. Ford has confirmed plans to build a luxury Lincoln crossover on a battery-powered platform provided by Rivian. The automaker also plans to introduce two new midsize electric crossovers, one each for the Ford and Lincoln brands by 2023.\nMustang Mach-E. Source: Ford\nFord's market cap is approximately $51 billion, twice its previous market cap, and also increasing.\nConsumer Retail EV Companies\nThe consumer retail market has some unique characteristics for new EV companies. Sales are made individually, not in fleets. This diversifies the risk upon launch because only a sufficient number of customers need to be attracted to the new EV. A wave of popularity can provide terrific momentum.\nHowever, the lack of a dealer network can be an impediment. Selling EVs directly to consumers instead of through dealers is prohibited in most states. By law, auto manufacturers can't compete with franchised dealers. These are laws that go back many decades to protect dealers. This can be a major impediment for new companies without established independent dealer franchises. So, new AV companies. like Tesla, need to sell their vehicles online. Tesla has successfully done this, but it took a lot of work and time. Lack of a dealer network also creates impediments in service.\nIn addition, over the next 4-5 years, autonomous capabilities will be increasingly important to luxury vehicles. This may prove to be a challenge to start-up EV companies because they can't afford to develop this technology.\nLet's look closer at the alternative consumer retail EV investments.\nLucid Motors (CCIV)\nLucid was founded in 2007 under the name Atieva and originally focused on building electric vehicle batteries and powertrains for other vehicle manufacturers. The company rebranded itself as Lucid Motors in October 2016 and shifted its strategy to develop an all-electric, high-performance, luxury vehicle. Shortly after that, it encountered financial difficulties and struggled to get short-term funding. In 2018 it raised more than $1 billion in investment, primarily from Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund, and gave up a majority of the company.\nLucid Motors reached an agreement to become a publicly-traded company through a merger with the SPAC Churchill Capital IV Corp., in one of the largest deals SPAC EV deals. The combined company, in which Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund will continue to be the largest shareholder, had a transaction equity value of $11.75 billion (for $10/share). At the same time, it closed a PIPE investment priced at $15 a share, giving it an implied pro forma equity value of $24 billion. Rumors about this deal circulated before the transaction was formally announced, making it one of the most anticipated SPAC deals. The hype and speculation drove up the stock price of Churchill Capital IV Corp. from its opening price of $10 a share to almost $60. I believe that some of this may have been driven by novice SPAC investors who didn't realize that the valuation of CCIV didn't include the eventual valuation of Lucid. The share price dropped more than 30% after the details of the deal were announced. It's also likely that Lucid renegotiated the terms of the merger based on the price jump.\nThe company's first product is the Lucid Air, a well-equipped luxury electric vehicle that features 406 miles of projected range and 480 horsepower with a starting price of $77,400, or $69,900 after the U.S. Federal Tax Credit of $7,500. This new Lucid Air model is positioned as a high-performance, ultra-efficient luxury EV sedan in a line of future vehicles that are expected to include Lucid Air Touring, Grand Touring, and Dream Edition versions.\nThe company plans to begin production and deliveries of the Lucid Air in North America in the second half of 2021. Previously the company aimed to begin deliveries earlier in 2021. It intends to sell the car in Europe in 2022, followed by China in 2023. Lucid vehicles will be produced at its new factory in Casa Grande, Arizona. The company plans to expand the factory in phases in the coming years to have the capacity to produce 365,000 units per year at scale. The initial phase of the $700 million factory construction was completed late last year and will have the capacity to produce 30,000 vehicles a year.\nLucid also apparently has a commitment to build an assembly plant in Saudi Arabia, which was rumored to be a condition of the $1 billion investment from the Saudi public fund. The Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund also provided $600 million in bridge financing and invested in the SPAC deal as well. So, while this assembly plant may be expensive and may not be critical, it will most likely need to happen.\nLucid has ambitious plans to achieve $14 billion in revenue in 2025, and its current stock price at $29.17, which gives it a market cap of more than $46 billion, may already reflect those ambitions. Its market cap is roughly the same as Ford.\nFisker (FSR)\nFisker, which had its origins with Fisker Automotive, is an interesting story that ended in bankruptcy. Henrik Fisker originally co-founded Fisker Automotive in 2007. He was responsible for designing many premium cars such as the Aston Martin. Subsequently, Fisker Automotive had to deal with a Tesla lawsuit against Fisker Automotive alleging it stole Tesla's technology, a controversial $528.7 million conditional loan from the Department of Energy, a recall of its battery produced by A123, and the loss of several hundred vehicles in hurricane Sandy. Henrik Fisker resigned in March 2013 because of disagreements over business strategy and in November 2013, Fisker filed its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case.\nHowever, Henrik Fisker retained the Fisker brand and trademarks, and in 2016 he started another electric vehicle company named Fisker Inc. with the Fisker brand and trademarks. In 2019, Fisker shifted from developing a sports car with a solid-state battery to the Ocean SUV featuring a lithium-ion battery, which it later abandoned for a solid-state battery.\nFisker is positioning itself in a unique segment for those who want the most environmentally friendly EV. While this may be an early growth segment for EVs, it's difficult to estimate its eventual competitive advantage and the size of this environmentally-friendly market segment.\nThe Ocean is a crossover made of recycled metal and plastic with an expected base price of $37,499, and an expected lease of less than $400 a month. Fisker's plan is essentially a lease-only business model that lets customers keep a vehicle for years or return it at any time. It aims to source motors, batteries, and other components from technical partnerships with automakers and will outsource production from existing auto plants. Fisker is currently taking reservations at $250 for the Ocean. It also announced an agreement with Foxconn to jointly develop a vehicle pioneering a new market segment to be sold globally under the Fisker brand commencing in Q4 2023. at the end of 2022. Production will start at Magna Steyr's manufacturing facilities in Europe. At the end of February 2021, it had 12,467 cancellable reservations.\nFisker Ocean. Source: Fisker\nFisker went public using a SPAC (Spartan Energy). The original combination with SPAQ in October 2020 was valued at $2.9 billion with a cash investment of approximately $1 billion. The stock currently trades at approximately $21 per share, after reaching a high of $28.50, from the original price of $10, which is a market cap of $4.6 billion. Fisker projects $3.3 billion in revenue in 2023. It had almost $1 billion in cash at the end of 2020 and expected to use almost half of this in 2021: $250 million on operating expenses and $250 million in capital investments. If the Ocean is delayed into 2023, Fisker risks missing its revenue objective and will potentially need additional cash to complete development and launch.\nFaraday Future (PSAC)\nFaraday Future was originally established in May 2014 by Chinese businessman Jia Yueting. It is headquartered in Los Angeles and has offices in Silicon Valley, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu. Faraday Future also had a turbulent history. In 2016, it struggled financially, and in 2017 some key executives departed over a dispute about financial issues. They later founded Canoo.\nIn December 2018 the company announced layoffs due to a cash crunch and financial troubles. The company's founder Jia Yueting filed for personal bankruptcy in the United States' federal court in Delaware on October 14, 2019. Following Jia's personal bankruptcy, he decided to step down from his role as CEO of Faraday Future in order to assume a new position as the Chief Product and User Officer. He was replaced as CEO by Carsten Breitfeld, the former CEO at rival electric vehicle startup Byton.\nSomehow, Faraday was able to raise $2.3 billion in private funding over 5 rounds from a variety of investors. In early 2018, it received $1.5 billion in funding from an undisclosed investor from Hong Kong.\nFaraday's flagship product offering will be the FF 91, featuring 1,050 HP, 0-60 mph in less than 2.4 seconds, zero gravity seats with the largest 60-degree reclining angles, and a user experience designed to create a mobile, connected, and luxurious living space. The FF 91 is targeted to launch in 2022.\nFF 91. Source: Faraday Future\nIts strategic partners include one of China's top three OEMs and a critical Chinese city, which the company believes will help establish its presence in the Chinese vehicle market.\nFaraday Future plans several cars based on its Variable Platform Architecture. FF 91 is the first production vehicle and flagship model. Pricing will range between $120,000 and upwards of $200,000, which places it against formidable opponents. Faraday Future is already looking forward to expanding its range with a pair of smaller models named FF 81 and FF 71. The FF 81 is planned to be priced at $75,000 to 95,000 with a 2023 release. The FF 71 is planned to be priced at $45,000 to $65,000 with a planned release of 2024.\nThe Primary Manufacturing Facility for FF 91 is in Hanford, CA with contract manufacturing for future models in Gunsan, South Korea.\nFaraday Future is planning high-Level automation with a Level-3 capable system using a redundant safety architecture based on NVIDIA Xavier System-on-a-chip. It will be capable of highway auto-drive and hardware ready for advanced auto-drive. It is targeting full autonomous valet parking & summon in any parking lot or structure. Eventually, it expects full auto-drive, including full 360˚ sensor coverage for advanced auto-drive & auto-park features.\nIn January 2021, Faraday Future announced that the company would go public through a reverse merger with the special purpose acquisition company Property Solutions Acquisition Corp. (PSAC). The combined company will be valued at $3.4 billion. Faraday Future is expected to set up contract manufacturing operations in China through their partnership with Geely. Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn is also expected to serve as an additional strategic partner.\nFaraday Future projects $10.5 billion in revenue in 2024 and $21.5 billion in 2025. Revenue is expected to start in 2022 with the delivery of 2,400 vehicles for $504 million. Most likely these projections could prove to be optimistic. At a current stock price of approximately $12.80, it has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nLordstown Motors (RIDE)\nLordstown Motors based in Lordstown, Ohio, was originally founded in 2018 by Steve Burns, the former CEO of Workhorse Group. The company licensed technology from Workhorse in return for royalties and a 10% ownership. Lordstown is named after the famous GM Lordstown manufacturing plant, which it acquired in November 2019 in an unusual transaction. GM announced that it was closing the plant and was under a great deal of pressure for that decision. So, GM \"sold\" the plant to a company that was renamed Lordstown for an estimated $20 million that it loaned to the acquiring company. Subsequently, the sale was redefined to be part of a $75 million investment by GM, of which $50 million was an in-kind exchange for the plant.\nLordstown went public through the SPAC DiamondPeak Holdings Corp. in 2020. It currently has more than 400 employees.\nIts first product is the Lordstown Endurance, a full-sized EV pickup truck. Lordstown is positioning Endurance for the pickup fleet market segment. The expected price is $52,000+, and it claimed to have more than 100,000 pre-orders by January 2021. However, a recent research article published by a short seller claimed \"Our research has revealed that Lordstown's order book consists of fake or entirely non-binding orders, from customers that generally do not even have fleets of vehicles.\" Lordstown is disputing that article.\nIt believes the fleet pickup market segment is underserved with no current EV-focused competition. It estimates that the full-sized pick-up truck fleet market is 1.2 million vehicles per year in the U.S., but it's more fragmented than other truck fleets. Pickup \"fleets\" tend to be much smaller and local, so there may not be much of a market distinction for a small company buying several EV pickups from a traditional auto dealer. About half of the total U.S. pickup market is classified as fleet sales, meaning more than one.\nEven though Lordstown is targeting the commercial fleet market, it is a similar product to the Ford EV F-150. So I classify it in the consumer EV category. It is a class 2 vehicle. Lordstown also may enter the SUV market in the longer-term.\nThe Endurance will compete against future models from Rivian and Tesla, as well as Ford and GM in ICE pick-ups and their upcoming EV pick-ups. Ford plans on selling its EV F-150 in mid-2022. Initial production of the Endurance is expected in the second half of 2021, so it may have a short market advantage. Nevertheless, it forecasts selling 65,000 vehicles in 2023 and 107,000 in 2024. These estimates could be a large percentage of the EV pick-up market in those years.\nAt the SPAC merger, the implied valuation for Lordstown was $1.6 billion, including a $500 million PIPE and the $75 million by GM. Lordstown's financial projections appear to be aggressive. It projects to start shipping the Endurance in late 2021 with projected revenue in 2022 of $1.7 billion, increasing to $5.8 billion in 2024. Its stock price at approximately $13.60 values the company at a market cap of approximately $2.2 billion. The value of the company depends on the likelihood of achieving its projections.\nA fleet sales strategy makes sense for Lordstown since it would be too expensive to build a retail sales and service capability. However, it's not clear that this will become a distinct competitive advantage. Some small fleets may still prefer to buy their EV pickups from established local dealers with service capabilities.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nCanoo started as Evelozcity in 2017 and rebranded as Canoo in the spring of 2019. Canoo is a Los Angeles-based company that develops electric vehicles. It has over 350 employees. Canoo has designed a modular electric platform purpose-built to deliver maximum vehicle interior space, which is adaptable to support a wide range of vehicle applications for consumers and businesses. Canoo expects to launch its first consumer model in 2022, simply named the Canoo that will be available by subscription, followed shortly after by a multi-purpose delivery vehicle and a sports vehicle, each built off of the same underlying platform. Canoo went public using a SPAC (Hennessy Capital Acquisition) and now trades as GOEV.\nCanoo's all-electric skateboard-like platform is designed to support both consumer retail and commercial vehicle configurations. The EV leverages Canoo's flat skateboard architecture for a high level of usable interior space. Its commercial vehicle program, expected in 2023, addresses a projected $50B+ last-mile delivery market with an EV platform that maximizes cargo volume.\nHyundai Motor Group said it would jointly develop an electric vehicle platform with the company.\nCanoo's platform strategy is interesting. It could be used as an EV platform for custom fleets of delivery vehicles. It has no AV development, but it claims to be \"AV Ready\" which could be useful for AV companies wanting to build custom AV delivery fleets.\nIts all-electric multi-purpose delivery vehicle is expected to be priced starting at approximately $33,000. It is based on Canoo's proprietary electric platform and will be offered in two initial size variants, with others to follow. Limited availability will begin in 2022, with scaled production and launch planned for 2023. Customers can pre-order the multi-purpose delivery vehicle for a refundable deposit of $100 per vehicle\nIt plans to offer two multi-purpose delivery vehicles: the MPDV1 and the larger MPDV2. The first has a 200-foot cargo volume and a range of 130-200 miles. It offers more capacity than today's ICE delivery vehicles at an affordable price with urban mobility enabled by a space-efficient footprint. The vehicle is also designed to fit within many height-restricted areas like parking garages.\nThe MPDV2 has a cargo volume of 450 feet and a range of 90-190 miles. Its roof and step-in height enable individuals to easily walk-in the vehicle and accommodate a standing position while inside.\nThe original SPAC transaction provided approximately $600 million, with a pro forma equity value of approximately $2.4 billion. Like other SPAC mergers, its stock price has fluctuated. It currently trades at about $15.90 per share for a market cap of approximately $3.7 billion. Canoo projects $2.0 billion in revenue in 2025 from about $500 million in engineering services, $1.2 billion from its consumer vehicle subscriptions, and the remainder from its commercial program. Canoo expects revenue of more than $300 million in 2022 after the launch of its lifestyle consumer vehicle.\nSince its first products are aimed at consumers, as is most of its forecasted 2025 revenue, I categorize it primarily as a consumer EV company. However, I think the design of that Canoo vehicle may not attract enough customers. More importantly, its subscription service way of selling its EV to consumers is risky. I think it has more potential in the commercial market, however, a dual strategy (consumer and commercial) is challenging. I like its skateboard platform design and that could prove to be a competitive advantage.\nRivian\nAlthough not yet public, I include Rivian because it has plans for an IPO as soon as Sept 2021, although it could slip into 2022. There are rumors that the company is targeting a market valuation of approximately $50B. Rivian has already raised more than $8 billion to date from Amazon, Ford, T. Rowe Price, and others.\nRivian has developed and vertically integrated a connected electric platform that can be flexibly applied to a range of applications, including the company's adventure products, as well as B2B products such as the Amazon last-mile delivery vans. The company's initial products, the R1T and R1S, provide a combination of performance, off-road capability, and utility. These vehicles will be produced at Rivian's manufacturing plant in Normal, Ill., with customer deliveries expected to begin in summer 2021. The launch of the R1S three-row electric SUV will follow in August.\nAdditional lower-priced models are being planned. The expected R2 series would include at least two smaller electric vehicles to coincide with the smaller platform, then another platform for R3.\nCommercial Delivery EV Companies\nEV truck companies differ based on the type of truck they are developing. The technology and markets are very different, so I separate them into two categories. The first category includes commercial delivery vehicles.\nCompanies making EV delivery vehicles have some major advantages that could make them good investments. First, delivery vehicles typically travel less than 250 miles during a day, so they can be conveniently recharged overnight. Secondly, they are typically sold in large quantities to fleets. This means that building a retail sales infrastructure is not necessary. It only requires a small salesforce. In addition, maintenance can also be provided at the fleet's operational center, so not as many service centers are required.\nThe disadvantage in this market is that there are a relatively small number of customers that buy in large volumes, so if the EV manufacturer can't get enough large customers, they may not be able to stay in business. GM estimates the combined market opportunity for parcel and food delivery, as well as reverse logistics, in the U.S. will be more than $850 billion by 2025.\nThe commercial market is expected to be a major growth area for EVs. Other start-up automakers like Rivian as well as legacy automakers such as Ford, Daimler, and GM have announced plans to enter the segment. GM recently announced its BrightDrop ecosystem for commercial customers that includes an all-new electric delivery van, the EV600 available by the end of 2021, as well as an integrated autonomous pallet and related services.\nThis group of EV companies focuses primarily on commercial delivery. In general, these are in the light-duty trucks category, although it also includes some medium-duty trucks. This generally includes the following commercial truck classes:\n\nClass 1: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 0-6,000 pounds or 0-2,722 kilograms.\nClass 2: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 6,001-10,000 pounds or 2,722-4,536 kilograms.1\nClass 3: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 10,001-14,000 pounds or 4,536-6,350 kilograms.\n\nIt can also include somewhat larger medium-duty EV delivery trucks:\n\nClass 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.\nClass 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.\n\nEV delivery trucks also have an advantage over ICE vehicles because they can have a greater delivery storage space. Smaller buses and transit vehicles are also included in this category.\nLast-mile package delivery is not an immediate-term autonomous vehicle opportunity because it requires a delivery person to be on the truck anyway.\nWorkhorse Group (WKHS)\nWorkhorse has been a public company for ten years. Originally AMP Electric Vehicles, it was established in 2007 as a developmental-stage vehicle electrification company, focusing on conversions. AMP Electric Vehicles went public in 2010 trading on the OTC market under the AMPD symbol. When the economic benefits of conversion became less certain, it pivoted away from passenger vehicles and began to focus on electrifying commercial vehicles. AMP acquired the Workhorse brand and the Workhorse custom chassis assembly plant in Union City. In March of 2013, AMP formally changed its name to Workhorse Group Incorporated.\nThe Company designs and builds a last-mile delivery electric vehicle. The C-Series EVs cover the larger size of commercial delivery vehicles in Classes 3-5. As part of its solutions, it also develops cloud-based, real-time telematics performance monitoring systems. It sells its vehicles to fleet customers directly and through its primary distributor, Ryder Systems. It is currently focused on bringing the C-Series electric delivery truck to market and fulfilling the existing backlog of orders.\nThe C-Series looks like a viable EV replacement for the 350,000 last-mile delivery vehicles sold in the U.S. annually. It recently announced an increased driving range from 100 miles to 160, which should open more market opportunities. It has a viable short-term go-to-market strategy selling fleets to delivery companies. It currently has test vehicles with UPS, DHL, FedEx, Amazon, and Walmart.\nWorkhorse recently lost out on the United States Postal Services Next Generation Delivery Vehicle project, however, it is in the process of challenging this decision. Additionally, its investment in Lordstown also provides an indirect investment opportunity. On November 7, 2019, the Company entered a transaction with Lordstown Motors to grant LMC a perpetual and worldwide license to certain intellectual property relating to its W-15 electric pickup truck platform and related technology in exchange for royalties, equity interest (approximately 10%) in LMC, and other considerations. This was a $320 million asset for Workhorse at the end of 2020.\nWorkhorse received a significant increase in orders in Q4/2020 but built just seven trucks in the fourth quarter due to production systems and supply chain issues. Workhorse plans to continue to take it slow, striving to build three of its composite-body battery-electric trucks a day in March with a plan to reach 10 trucks a day by the end of June. This makes its original 2021 goal of producing 1,800 trucks unlikely. It partnered with Hitachi and Hitachi Capital America (\"HCA\") to improve the Company's manufacturing, operational, and supply chain capabilities as well as to develop a national dealer network to support Workhorse's sales with vehicle financing options for both dealers and customers.\nWorkhorse has a market cap of approximately $1.9 billion. While Workhorse had ongoing revenue, unlike many other new EV companies, its revenue is still insignificant. It had a revenue of $1.4 million in 2020 and $377,000 in 2019. It has a backlog of over 8,000 vehicles but doesn't expect to be able to build many of those in 2021. It raised $270 million in capital over several financings, providing the Company with additional capital to build its backlog. It had cash of $215 million as of March 1, 2021. Because Workhorse is a traditional public company, it hasn't made long-term financial projections like SPAC-based companies.\nElectric Last Mile (FIII)\nElectric Last Mile, based in Troy Michigan, was founded by Jason Luo, former CEO of Ford China before it was acquired by China's Ningbo Joyson Electronic for $920 million in 2016, including James Taylor, former CEO of GM's Hummer brand and former CEO of electric car maker Karma Automotive. Taylor serves as the company's top executive with Luo as the company's chairman.\nThe company plans to launch a small electric delivery van (class 1-2), called the UD-1, in the third quarter of 2021, and then introduce an Urban Utility vehicle (Class 2-3) in 2022. These are expected to compete with Workhorse, Rivian, Canoo, as well as the Ford eTransit and the GMC BV1, none of which is expected to be a Class 1 vehicle.\nThe company says it has 30,000 preorders for its van, representing more than $1 billion in sales. Electric Last Miles vehicles will be based on Sokon's commercial van made in China through a joint venture with Dongfeng Automobile Co Ltd. in order to accelerate development time.\nElectric Last Mile (ELM) is expected to manufacture the vans in a former General Motors Co. Hummer plant in Mishawaka, Ind., that the company is acquiring from China's Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co. Ltd. The plant has the capacity to produce 100,000 vehicles annually with plans to build approximately 4,000 UD-1 vans by the end of 2021. The UD-1 has a starting price of $32,500 and a range of 150 miles. The battery for the vehicle is expected to be supplied by the Chinese battery company CATL.\nELM believes that it has a competitive advantage because its first vehicle, the ELM Urban Delivery, is scheduled to be available in 2021. It is based on a proven, existing platform developed and sold by Sokon Group in the Asian market, where there are 30,000 of these electric delivery vehicles driving 1.5 million miles every day. At the close of the business combination, ELM will be an independent, U.S. company producing electric vehicles in the U.S. with Sokon Group providing access to its know-how, parts supply, and field and service data.\nELM expects that the Urban Delivery vehicle will be the first electric delivery vehicle coming to market in the class 1 category (GVW of 6,000 lbs or less) in the U.S. It will also have 35% more carrying volume compared to similar ICE delivery vehicles, a critical part of the value proposition. It also anticipates that its price and greater carrying volume will allow it to take market share from the class 2 category of vehicles as well.\nIts crossover product portfolio strategy targets commercial delivery vehicles spanning from class 1 to class 3, which represents over 80% of the last mile market.\nELM anticipates $122 million in revenue in 2021, rapidly increasing to $3 billion in 2025. The price of FIII stock increased immediately following its announcement with Electric Last Mile, rising more than 40% to $14.50, but now it has dropped closer to the original deal price to $10.25 for a market cap of approximately $1.5 billion.\nGreenPower Motor Company (GP)\nGreenPower Motor Company Inc. is a Canadian battery-electric bus manufacturer with multiple models of high- and low-floor vehicles, including transit buses, school buses, and shuttles. GreenPower offers commercial vehicles for delivery, public transit, schools, vanpooling, micro-transit, shuttles, and is developing a capability of autonomous operation. It went public on August 28, 2020.\nIn 2014 GreenPower launched its first purpose-built, battery-electric bus, the EV350, 40-foot transit bus. GreenPower received its first order in 2017 for ten EV350s from the City of Porterville, California.\nGreenPower's electric buses are purpose-built and designed to be all-electric, allowing it to put the battery and propulsion system in optimized locations that provide weight and structural advantages. Its primary EV is the EV Star with more than 120 vehicles delivered. It comes in several variations:\n\nEV Star - Up to 19 passengers\nEV Star Plus - Up to 24 passengers\nEV Star ADA - Passenger and curbside lift for ADA\nEV Star Cargo - 5,000 pounds of load\nEV Star Cargo Plus - 570 cubic feet of cargo space.\n\nIts EV school bus seats up to 90 students and has a range of up to 150 miles.\nGreenPower had revenue of $13.5 million in 2020 It has about $21 million in cash. It's an interesting alternative since it is already shipping EVs, has revenue, and also has a lower market cap of less than $1 billion. Since it did a traditional IPO, it hasn't published longer-term financial forecasts.\nArrival (CIIC)\nArrival was founded in 2015 in London to make a variety of commercial electric vehicles. It has approximately 1,200 employees across 11 cities in 8 countries. In November 2020, Arrival and the SPAC CIIG entered into a business combination agreement with an implied valuation of $5.39 billion.\nArrival plans on releasing four commercial EVs over the next few years.\n\nQ4/2021: An electric bus for 8-125 passengers and a range of 240-400km\nQ3/2022: An electric delivery van with a payload of 975-2,000kg and a range of 150-340km\n2022: A larger electric van with a payload of 4,000 kg and a range of 190-400km\n2023: a small vehicle platform with a range of 100-300km.\n\nThis mix provides a nice diversified portfolio of EVs. Arrival claims to have received orders from UPS for 10,000 vans. It plans a unique flexible manufacturing approach using micro-factories with each projected to manufacture 10,000 vans per year. All of its vehicles use a modular skateboard electric platform.\nArrival ambitiously projects $14.1 billion in revenue in 2024. Half of that revenue is expected from delivery vans, 22% from buses, and the rest from the large van and its small vehicle platform. With CIIC's stock price at $24.80 per share, Arrival's current market cap is relatively high at approximately $15.0 billion. Justifying its market cap depends on its ability to release, sell, and produce its four commercial EVs.\nProterra (ACTC)\nProterra is a commercial electric vehicle company with over a decade of production experience. The Company has designed an end-to-end, flexible technology platform that claims to deliver higher performance and a low total cost of ownership to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end customers.\nProterra, Inc., was originally founded in Golden, Colorado, by Dale Hill in 2004. Later the company wanted to take the lead in creating zero-emission, U.S.-based transit buses. In 2010 it moved its manufacturing plant from Golden, Colorado to Greenville, South Carolina. In 2015, Proterra was awarded a $3 million grant from the California Energy Commission to fund the design, development, and construction of the company's battery-electric transit bus manufacturing line in the City of Industry, California. It moved its headquarters from Greenville, South Carolina, to Burlingame, California, in October 2015. Proterra raised more than $600 million in funding.\nIt is going public through the SPAC ArcLight (ACTC) with a pro forma valuation of $1.6 billion. Upon completion of the transaction, Proterra expects to have up to $825 million in cash to fund growth initiatives, including R&D and the expansion of its next-generation battery program.\nProterra has three complementary businesses:\n\nProterra Powered: Delivering battery systems and electrification solutions to commercial vehicle manufacturers\nProterra Transit:Providing an electric transit bus OEMs\nProterra Energy:Offering turnkey charging and energy management solutions.\n\nThe company's battery systems have been proven in more than 16 million service miles driven by its fleet of transit vehicles and validated through partnerships with commercial vehicle OEMs. Proterra has produced and delivered more than 300 megawatt-hours of battery systems, more than 550 heavy-duty electric transit buses, and installed 54 megawatts of charging systems.\nProterra expected $193 million of revenue in 2020, with an estimated $750 million in existing orders and backlog. It projects $2.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with about 1/3 coming from its Transit business, and 2/3 From Powered & Energy. At ACTC's current stock price of $17.85, Proterra has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nRivian\nRivian (see earlier description in consumer retail) will also compete in the commercial delivery market. It has been working with Amazon (a major investor) to build large electric delivery vans for Prime. Developed specifically for Amazon, a small fleet of Prime vans is on the road now, testing deliveries to customers and gathering feedback. In late fall, it could grow to a large fleet as Rivian ramps up the volume.\nThe EV range of 150 miles is tailored to Amazon's use cycle to optimize the size, weight, and cost of the commercial vehicle. Rivian has three sizes of batteries, but Amazon is starting with just one of them.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nSee the previous summary under consumer retail EV.\nMedium and Long-Haul Trucking EV Companies\nCompanies developing medium- and long-haul EV trucks face a more difficult challenge with battery range. These trucks haul much more weight than commercial delivery vehicles and because they are designed for long distances, they can't stop every 200-300 miles for recharging.\nFor this reason, many of these companies are using unique hybrid technologies for their trucks. The EV trucks in this category are primarily heavy-duty but also include some medium-duty trucks and specialty vehicles. A couple of the companies focus on retrofitting trucks to be electric.\nMedium-Duty Trucks\nThe medium-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 4, 5, and 6:\n\nClass 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.\nClass 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.\nClass 6: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 19,501-26,000 pounds or 8,846-11,793 kilograms.1\n\nHeavy-Duty Trucks\nThe heavy-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 7 and 8:\n\nClass 7: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 26,001 to 33,000 pounds or 11,794-14,969 kilograms.\nClass 8: This class of trucks has a GVWR of greater than 33,001 pounds or 14,969 kilograms and includes all tractor-trailers.\n\nThe Tesla Semi is a battery vehicle planned for a range of 300 or 500 miles and a speed of 60 MPH with 80,000 lbs of cargo. Tesla plans to start shipping the Semi later this year when it expects to have sufficient cell volume to meet its needs with the production of its 4680 battery pack.\nNikola(NASDAQ:NKLA)\nNikola has been a very controversial company. Founded in 2015, it originally had two different strategies. Its primary strategy is to lease fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) Class-8 heavy trucks and provide the refueling infrastructure to corporate customers. Its second strategy was to develop the Badger EV truck using GM technology.\nNikola originally merged with a SPAC to go public, at an enterprise value of approximately $3.3 billion. On June 6th, 2020, its market cap jumped to more than $30 billion, then later it dropped because of problems with its originally planned deal with GM.\nNikola originally expected a deal with General Motors that included the production of the Nikola Badger EV pickup truck. The proposed arrangement was that GM would take a $2 billion equity stake in Nikola and in return would engineer and produce the Badger. In November 2020, GM and Nikola scrapped the original arrangement. Now it appears that GM will supply Nikola with only its Hydrotec hydrogen fuel-cell technology to integrate into the EV manufacturer's commercial class 7 and class 8 zero-emission semi-trucks. So, the Badger is probably dead.\nNikola now sees semi-trucks as the company's \"core business\" and fuel cells as an increasingly important segment of the semi-truck market thanks to their efficiency in weight and consumption. It expects to begin testing by the end of 2021.\nIt has received pre-orders from Anheuser-Busch and a few other companies, but it doesn't expect deliveries until 2023. Hydrogen fueling stations are key to its strategy, both providing a source of revenue and necessary fueling infrastructure for the trucks to operate, but they also cost a lot. In its March 2020 investor deck, Nikola said a single station capable of fueling 210 trucks a day would cost $16.6 million. Its initial planned network of 700 stations would cost roughly $11.6 billion.\nNikola was also accused of misrepresentation, and its executive chairman and founder stepped down.\nAt the time of the SPAC merger, it projected an optimistic forecast of more than $3 billion in revenue by 2024, with a net income of $145 million. Most of that revenue was expected to come from its Badger truck, which is no longer in the plans. Yet its market cap is still almost $6 billion.\nHyliion (HYLN)\nHyliion, founded in 2015 in Austin, went public in October 2020 through the SPAC Tortoise Acquisition Corp. (SHLL). In March 2019, automotive parts manufacturer Dana Inc. made an equity investment into Hyliion, and together they are manufacturing and marketing Class 8 EVs to Dana's customers, including Volvo, Navistar, and Peterbilt.\nHyliion's strategy is unique, and a very different strategy from Nikola. Essentially it generates electricity onboard the truck using compressed natural gas (CNG). This should be a benefit for longer-range trucking. Hyliion's Hypertruck concept involves an all-electric drivetrain utilizing Dana's electric motor, inverter, and axle technologies. The truck's batteries are fueled by onboard tanks of CNG. With some 700 CNG stations already operating nationwide, it believes that there no need to build out expensive superchargers or hydrogen infrastructure.\nKuwait-based logistics company, Agility, has already placed an order for 1,000 Hypertrucks with initial deliveries targeted in 2022. Combined with a fully electric drivetrain and a natural gas-powered onboard generator to recharge the battery, the Hypertruck ERX will provide more than 1,000 miles of range.\nHyliion will eventually compete with Nikola (FCEV) and the Tesla battery-based Semi, but it plans to have a longer range and lower operating costs. Its HyperTruck ERX is expected to be available in 2021. It also has a hybrid-electric truck.\nThe combination with SHLL had an estimated market cap of about $1.5 billion, with approximately $530 million going to the company, including a $325 million fully committed PIPE. At approximately $13.50 per share, its current market cap is approximately $2.2 billion, significantly down from its peak. Hyliion projects $2 billion in revenue in 2024, which it claims is only about 2% of the addressable market.\nXL Fleet (XL)\nXL Fleet is a 10-year old company that went public through the SPAC Pivotal. XL is different because it provides fleet electrification modifications for ICE trucks across a wide range of vehicle classes (class 2-5) and types. It has over 200 of the largest commercial and municipal fleets as customers, with more than 3,200 XL systems deployed and over 130 million miles driven by customers to date. XL's customer base includes FedEx, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Verizon, the City of Boston, Seattle Fire Department, Yale University, and Harvard University.\nXL's business model is essentially retrofitting existing trucks to be hybrids and then later expanding into fully electric truck conversions. It claims to be creating a fully integrated platform for this. It remains to be seen if the retrofitting business will continue to grow or will it diminish when more trucks are designed and manufactured with EV capabilities.\nUnlike some other EV companies that have no revenue yet because they are still developing products, XL is more of a small company doing low-volume retrofits. It had $7.2 million in revenue in 2019, $21 million in 2020, and estimates $76 million in 2021, but it forecasts $1.3 billion in revenue in 2024 in its investor presentation. It plans to do this by expanding its product line from hybrid to plug-in hybrid to fully electric across a broader range of trucks. It claims to have a $220 million sales pipeline for the next 12 months.\nShort-seller, Muddy Waters, claimed after talking to former XL Fleet employees, that it believed the company significantly exaggerated its order backlog, that the return on investment for the company's products was likely negative, and that it would not be able to compete with big car makers on electrification. The company thoroughly refuted these claims.\nThe original enterprise valuation was approximately $1.4 billion at a $10 share price for the merger. Its price jumped by about 35% but has since gone back down to $12.40 for a market cap of about $1.8 billion. Although XL Fleet has revenue and other EV companies don't, this may not be an advantage. It appears to be a small company for many years that has gone public at a high valuation with grand plans. The risks are in its ability to make a jump from $76 million in 2021 to $1.3 billion in 2024, as well as the question about retrofitting being replaced by new EV trucks by then.\nXos (NGAC)\nXos Trucks specializes in the field of manufacturing fully electric commercial vehicles. It features a software platform that is designed to accommodate an extensive variety of medium-duty bodies, wheelbase, and range requirements up to 200 miles. It was founded in 2016 and headquartered in North Hollywood, California. It received $20 million of investment in 2020 and now is going public through a merger with the SPAC ExtGen Acquisition Corporation (NGAC) at an estimated proforma value of $1.965 billion.\nIts focus is on medium- and heavy-duty last mile and return-to-base segments (class 5/6, class 6/7, and class 7/8) commercial fleets and specialty vehicles. Some vehicles are currently in production and in regular on-road operations with key fleet customers, and it claimed 6,000 unit orders in backlog.\nIts MD-platform is for classes 5-6 for pickup and delivery. Its HD X-Platform is an adaptable chassis for highway, vocational, and severe work conditions. Its market is for customers with highly predictable routes that allow for batteries designed for a more limited range. A significantly larger frame and smaller battery pack allow for reduced density.\nXos has a bundled all-in-one offering that allows fleets to access all the tools and services they need to go electric with a single point of contact at a fixed monthly expense.\nXos had $3 million in revenue in 2020 and estimates $14 million in 2021. However, it forecasts $5.2 billion in revenue in 2025. At the current stock price of $10.30, its market cap is approximately $2 billion, about the same as its original SPAC transaction.\nLion Electric (NGA)\nLion Electric is a Canadian company founded by Marc Bédard in 2008. Its focus is to be a leader in designing, developing, and manufacturing purpose-built urban electric vehicles; vehicles that are specifically designed as delivery trucks, refuse trucks, bucket trucks, moving trucks, school buses, and shuttle buses. It has over 300 all-electric vehicles on the road today.\nIn November 2020, it announced that it was going public through the SPAC NGA. The transaction had an estimated pro forma enterprise value of $1.5 billion.\nIt plans on seven new truck models and one new school bus, for a total of 15 all-electric vehicles, representing a full line-up from class 5 to class 8 electric trucks and a full line-up of electric school buses. Its vehicles are produced at its existing manufacturing plant, which has the capacity for the production of up to 2,500 vehicles per year. It intends to open a new plant in the U.S. capable of delivering over 20,000 Lion trucks and buses per year by 2022.\nIts all-electric class 6 and class 8 commercial urban trucks combine power, comfort, and modern technology. Custom-built chassis and cabin designed specifically for an all-electric heavy-duty vehicle. The LionC is an all-electric Type C school bus manufactured in North America. The body and chassis were specifically designed to deliver optimal performance. The LionM is an all-electric midi/minibus that meets paratransit and public transportation requirements. Created and designed specifically for the paratransit market, the is spacious and offers unique features that provide enhanced security and accessibility to the end-users.\nLion Electric had $29 million in revenue in 2020 and expects $204 million in 2021. It forecasts revenue to jump to $3.6 billion a few years later in 2024. Its current market cap is approximately $3.6 billion based on its current stock price of $18.33.\nLightning eMotors (GIK)\nLightning eMotors, formerly Lightning Systems, was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Loveland, Colorado. It provides fleet electrification for familiar commercial vehicle platforms by retrofitting them with its electric powertrains. Lightning eMotors produces electric fleet medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including delivery trucks, shuttle buses, passenger vans, ambulances, bucket trucks, chassis-cab models, and city transit buses. It focuses on urban commercial zero-emission vehicles with a full range of class 3 through class 7 battery-electric and fuel-cell electric vehicles.\nLighting eMotors helps commercial fleets achieve their sustainability goals by offering zero-emission battery-electric vans, trucks, and buses based on familiar, proven vehicles from manufacturers such as Ford and GM. It works with customers, to help them identify their unique commercial electric vehicle, charging, and grant support needs.\nThe Lightning products include integrated all-electric powertrains for the Ford Transit 350HD passenger and cargo vans, Ford E-450 shuttle bus and cutaway models, Ford F-59 step/food van, Ford F-550 cargo trucks and buses, Chevrolet 6500XD Low Cab Forward model, and 30-foot, 35-foot, and 40-foot transit buses.\nLightning has 120 vehicles on the road, and 1,500 vehicles already on order from customers. In addition to making vehicles and powertrains, Lightning also provides a full suite of charging solutions for customers.\nThe deal with GIK has an enterprise value of $650 million, although there is also an Earnout of 20.0% of total pro forma shares outstanding to Lightning eMotors shareholders if the stock crosses certain price thresholds.\nAt the current price, of $11.73, GIK has a market cap of approximately $1 billion, a little more than the original transaction valuation. Similar to XL Fleet, Lightning has the risk that retrofitting may only be an interim business opportunity until more EV trucks are produced.\nPublic Chinese EV Companies\nChina will be the biggest EV market opportunity, and EV start-ups may do better there because there isn't as much entrenched competition from domestic auto companies. China is already the largest EV market in the world, with almost a million EVs sold in 2019. Its EV market represents almost half of the global EV sales volume and is much larger than the U.S. market.\nThe Chinese government has ambitions to become a global leader in new energy vehicles. Soon after the coronavirus outbreak subsided within the country, Chinese authorities announced new policies to support the auto and electric vehicle industries.\nThese Chinese companies are traded through American depository shares (ADS) that contain certain risks. There are financial reporting and transparency risks with these companies, and on top of that, the newer companies are being classified as \"emerging growth\" companies that are already exempt from certain transparency requirements set out in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Like the previous EV stock, these stocks have also been very volatile.\nIn addition to legacy auto manufacturers like BYD, there are also three Chinese EV companies that are publicly traded through American depositary shares.\nBYD Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:BYDDY)\nBYD, which means build your dreams, is the automotive subsidiary of the Chinese multinational BYD Co Ltd. It was founded in January 2003, following BYD Company's acquisition of Tsinchuan Automobile Company. The company produces automobiles, buses, electric bicycles, forklifts, rechargeable batteries, and trucks. The current model range of automobiles includes electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and petrol-engined vehicles. Thirteen years ago, on the advice of his famously skeptical lieutenant, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett made a $232 million investment in BYD, a relatively unknown Chinese car company.\nBy parlaying BYD's rechargeable battery technology into a fast-growing carmaking operation, it gained a foothold in the fledgling electric vehicle market, building longer-lasting batteries and cheaper vehicles than American and Japanese manufacturers were managing to do at the time. In BYD, Buffett and Munger believed they had found a company with a shot at one day becoming the largest player in a global automobile market that was inevitably going electric.\nBYD's start to 2021 was strong with 19,871 plug-in electric cars sold in January in China, including hybrid plug-ins. That was a big increase over 2020 but not as much as 2019.\nLI Auto (LI)\nLixiang, formerly known as Chehejia (\"Car and Home\"), was founded in 2015 and went public in the U.S. on July 30th, 2020. It is a Beijing-based electric-vehicle startup with vertically integrated manufacturing. It designs, researches, manufactures, sells, and offers services featuring a few models of electric vehicles.\nThe company's SUVs are hybrids of a sort. They use electric motors (one on the front axle and one on the rear), but those motors are powered by a combination of a 40.5kWh battery packanda 1.2-liter turbocharged engine paired to a 45-liter fuel tank and a 100kW electric generator, which generates power for the battery pack in real-time. The idea is that the car can be driven for about 100 miles on battery power alone, but it has a total range of nearly 500 miles when leveraging the combustion engine generator.\nThe Company's primary product is an SUV under its brand Li ONE. It also sells peripheral products and provides related services, such as charging stalls, vehicle internet connection services, and extended lifetime warranties. Li Auto is looking to sell a variety of SUVs built on its hybrid technology that range from around $21,000 to about $70,000. The company started shipping its first model in late 2019. It's a midsize SUV is well-appointed and has lots of touchscreens and technology. A full-size premium version is planned for release in 2022.\nDeliveries of Li ONEs were 14,464 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a 67.0% quarter-over-quarter increase and setting a new quarterly record. Deliveries for the full year 2020 reached 32,624 vehicles. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $635 million.\nLI auto went public on July 30th, 2020, raising $1.1 billion at an initial price of $15.50 per share but quickly reached almost $24. It is currently valued at approximately $37 billion at a price of approximately $25.72 per share.\nXPeng (XPEV)\nXiaopeng (XPeng) Motors is a Chinese electric vehicle and technology company that designs and manufactures smart cars. It was founded in 2015 and went public on August 27, 2020, using American depository shares, raising about $1 billion. To date, it has raised about $2.6 billion.\nXPeng aims its EVs at technology-savvy middle-class Chinese consumers, with prices ranging from $22,000 to $45,000 after government subsidies. In some ways, it is a Tesla knock-off at a much lower price. XPeng started production of the G3 in November 2018, and as of July 31, 2020, delivered 18,741. It started production of the P7 and began delivery in May 2020, and as of July 31, 2020, it had delivered 1,966 EVs. The P7 has a range of more than 400 miles. It plans to launch a third Smart EV, a sedan, in 2021. The G3 was among the top-three best-selling electric SUVs in China in 2019.\nXPeng is interesting because it has a platform strategy and is moving aggressively into autonomous driving. It uses a platform strategy to expand product offerings by launching one Smart EV model each year to broaden the addressable market. It builds new models on two highly flexible Smart EV platforms, called David and Edward, respectively. The David platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,600 millimeters to 2,800 millimeters, and the Edward platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,800 millimeters to 3,100 millimeters. It also adopted a platform approach for software systems.\nXPeng claims to be developing an autonomous driving capability for its EVs. The P7 is the first production vehicle to feature the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Xavier system-on-a-chip (SoC) autonomous driving platform. The company's Smart Electric Platform Architecture (SEPA) runs on 2 chips - NVIDIA for the XPILOT and Qualcomm's Snapdragon™ 820A for intelligent services and infotainment, including cameras inside and outside, radars, HD-map, and ultrasonic sensors. Like Tesla, it claims it can create sufficiently-autonomous driving without lidar.\nTo enhance brand recognition and allow more people to experience its Smart EVs, it deployed a small number of Smart EVs in a ride-hailing service in Guangzhou on a trial basis, but it has no current plan to scale up a ride-hailing service.\nXpeng sees first-quarter 2021 deliveries rising 450% year-over-year to 12,500 vehicles. Revenues are expected to increase 533% from a year ago. The company didn't provide bottom-line estimates for the quarter, but will likely post another net loss as it ramps up manufacturing, invests in R&D, and builds out a new manufacturing plant set to open in 2022.\nXpeng reported selling 12,964 vehicles in Q4 2020, up 303% from a year ago. It delivered a total of 27,041 vehicles in 2020, up 112%. It makes the P7 sedan, a rival to the made-in-China Tesla Model 3, and the small G3 SUV.\nThe stock opened on August 27, 2020 at a price of $15 and a valuation of $11 billion, but its stock jumped more than 40% shortly after. Its current valuation is about $35 billion at a stock price of approximately $36.13 per share. It had about $300 million in revenue in 2019 with a loss of about $500 million.\nNio (NIO)\nUnlike previous companies, Nio has been a public company for some time. It originally went public in the U.S. back in September of 2018, selling IPO shares at $6.26 and raising $1 billion.\nNio's IPO was far from smooth. After going public at $6.26 per share, it traded down to nearly $1. Then in the middle of the coronavirus outbreak, Nio received a much-needed investment of $1 billion from investors, including state-backed entities.\nNio designs, jointly manufactures, and sells smart and connected premium electric vehicles, attempting to develop next-generation technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving, and artificial intelligence. Joint manufacturing means that it uses a state-owned contract manufacturer to build its cars.\nNio plans to provide customers with comprehensive, convenient, and innovative charging solutions and other user-centric services. It began deliveries of the ES8, a 7-seater high-performance premium electric SUV in China in June 2018, and its variant, the six-seater ES8, in March 2019. Nio officially launched the ES6, a 5-seater high-performance premium electric SUV, in December 2018 and began deliveries in June 2019. It officially launched the EC6, a 5-seater smart premium electric Coupe SUV, in December 2019 with deliveries in 2020.\nNio sold 17,353 EVs in Q4/2020 and 43,728 for the year. It warned a shortage in chips and batteries will force a production slowdown to 7,500 a month in Q2 from 10,000 vehicles a month in February.\nNio currently trades at more than $43 per share, including a big jump recently, for a valuation of approximately $48 billion. It had revenue of $2.3 billion in 2019 for a loss of $3.8 billion.\nSummary\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this should provide exciting new investment opportunities. However, the investment terrain is complex. There are dozens of new start-ups where the public can now invest that were previously exclusively venture capital investment opportunities. Many of these are following different roads to success. There are legacy auto manufacturers that could prosper or get destroyed in this transition. There are some exciting new EV company opportunities in China. And then there is Tesla.\nThis EV roadmap is intended to help investors explore different roads to investment by explaining the basic strategies for these EV companies. These roads can have different opportunities and risks, and the roadmap helps to frame these. Above all, valuation is an overriding risk that is highlighted throughout this article.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":353969762,"gmtCreate":1616456027856,"gmtModify":1704794243189,"author":{"id":"3571815908504020","authorId":"3571815908504020","name":"AndrewL","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f45655eaaab14f0b61c554eea4d95ca7","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3571815908504020","authorIdStr":"3571815908504020"},"htmlText":"Nice article. Like &amp; comment. Thx.","listText":"Nice article. Like &amp; comment. Thx.","text":"Nice article. Like & comment. Thx.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353969762","repostId":1196402560,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196402560","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616134696,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196402560?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-19 14:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"New Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196402560","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, an","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>It's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.</li>\n <li>Last October, I wrote a popular article providing a roadmap for investing in electric vehicles, but since then, so much has changed: new entrants, new strategies, fluctuating valuations, etc.</li>\n <li>So, I updated and greatly expanded the previous EV investment roadmap.</li>\n <li>This update includes a deeper look at valuations for 23 EV companies with revenue projections, when available.</li>\n <li>It also classifies these EV companies into their primary market categories and summarizes their different strategies.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb96acc615cba9c7842860658c019ab1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\">Photo by Sven Loeffler/iStock via Getty Images\nMy article&nbsp;Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap&nbsp;published five months ago, was popular, and some followers have requested an update. Many new EV companies entered the market, most of them through SPACs. Valuations fluctuated wildly, and there has been a great deal of publicity around these companies.\nThis new updated EV investment roadmap is greatly expanded. In addition to updating the strategies and progress of companies previously discussed, I expanded the number of companies covered. This article also groups EV companies into their primary markets, enabling better comparisons and evaluation of market opportunities. In addition, it includes a comparative valuation chart showing every company's market cap with a comparison to projected revenue, where possible. This takes advantage (good or bad) of looking at the long-term revenue forecasts provided in SPAC mergers that public companies can't make.\nIn addition to the EV manufacturers discussed here, there are also EV investment opportunities in charging station companies, battery manufacturers, and battery materials companies. These were covered in the original roadmap and may also be updated in a later article.\nApproximately 2 million EVs were sold in 2019, and although the number declined along with all auto sales in 2020, it is forecasted to increase in 2021 and reach 8-10 million by 2025. Some forecast that EV sales will be greater than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2030, or even earlier. The automobile market appears to be moving toward a historical transformation, and exceptional investment gains can be made by anticipating new emerging industries and investing in the eventual winners of those new industries. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)are obvious examples. Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to create a new emerging industry.\nThere are also significant risks. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to be released in the next three years, which will drive rapid growth in EV sales. However, the expected sales from these new models, as well as the increasing expectations from Tesla, most likely exceed the total projected market. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the companies covered here won't exist five years from now. It reminds me of the internet bubble of the late 1990s when scores of internet-based companies went public with little or no revenue. Almost all of these failed within three years -- however, a couple, including Amazon, went on to enormous success.\nEVs provide a major new investment opportunity with high risks. To succeed, you need to have a clear EV investment roadmap.\nSo, how can you invest in this new emerging market? The EV landscape is complex and investment opportunities are varied. While Tesla is the unquestioned leader in EVs, some consider it overvalued and unlikely to show exceptional returns to new investors. The current U.S. legacy automakers are committed to introducing many new EVs in the next few years, and they have some entrenched advantages with volume manufacturing capabilities, a dealer infrastructure, and loyal customers. There are exciting new EV start-ups in the U.S. that have come public this year, mostly through Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), and there are several interesting publicly traded Chinese EV manufacturers.\nThis new roadmap for EV investment classifies companies into three primary markets segments:\n<ul>\n <li>TheConsumer Retailsegment includes EVs sold to consumers individually, such as SUVs, pickup trucks, sedans, etc.</li>\n <li>TheCommercial Deliverysegment includes local delivery EV vans and trucks sold to fleets.</li>\n <li>TheMedium- and Long-Haul Truckingsegment includes heavier Class 4 - Class 8 trucks, as well as special industrial vehicles.</li>\n</ul>\nIn addition, it categorizesLegacy ManufacturersandChinese EV Companies. This enables investors to evaluate investment opportunities by considering unique opportunities within each market segment.\nThere is an enormous amount of investment optimism for EVs, and retail investors have been aggressively buying into EV stocks with seemingly no regard for valuation. Then there is the additional challenge of valuing companies with no revenue, especially those coming public through SPACs. So, valuation is an important investment consideration.\nSo let's start by looking at an overview of comparative EV valuations.\nEV Investment Valuation Overview\nThe following chart summarizes valuations for 23 EV companies, including several legacy companies. For SPACs, market cap estimates are computed using the pro forma number of shares at closing, otherwise using the valuation of the SPAC prior to closing drastically underestimates the valuation, which may be misleading to novice investors. Price/Sales ratios (market cap divided by revenue) are used to compare valuations. As a benchmark, current P/S ratios vary. For example, auto and truck companies have a ratio of 2.7X. Software companies have the highest ratios of over 10X.\nIn the chart, companies that currently have revenue show current P/S ratios. Where projections are available, projected P/S ratios are computed. A note of caution, however. Many of the EV companies came public through SPACs and published their projections (which public companies cannot do), and many of these are likely to prove unrealistic.\nAll of the longer-term revenue projections come from the company (C) forecasts with a SPAC. Some of these may turn out to be accurate, not many are most likely unrealistic. Some, like Lucid, Faraday, and Arrival forecast hitting more than $10 billion in revenue in a few years, when it took Tesla more than 10. Things are different now and they might achieve these, but they could also find that it will take longer to complete development, ramp up production, and create enough customer demand. Many companies may also find that there will be significant capital requirements to achieve this type of growth, and shareholders will be diluted.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc360dfa7de01516b7f68d5962cf3017\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"883\">\nTesla, the \"gold standard\" in EVs, has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, which many people believe is overvalued. Its market cap is approximately 20X 2020 revenue and 10X estimated 2022 revenue.\nTesla (TSLA)\nIn the U.S., and to a lesser extent in China, Tesla is the dominant EV provider. It has approximately 60% of the U.S. EV market and about 20% of the market in China. I own a Tesla and love it, but an investment in Tesla stock requires getting comfortable with its valuation. Tesla has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, although declining lately, which some consider still overvalued while others see upside potential.\nThe investment opportunity with Tesla is based on the expectation that it will continue to dominate the EV market, or at least maintain significant market share, despite much greater competition from the expected introduction of hundreds of new EV models in the next few years.\nThere is a great deal already published about Tesla, so I'll move on.\nLegacy Automakers\nSome people think that the legacy automakers will simply fade away. Historically, that was the case in some other industries, but it is not going to happen to most automakers. They are not standing still waiting to become obsolete. Most have aggressive strategies to replace ICE vehicles with EVs. GM plans to invest $27 billion and build and launch as many as 30 new EV models by 2025. Ford plans to invest $29 billion in EVs by 2025 and launch as many as 16 EVs in the next two years. Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY)has also committed billions to develop new EVs.\nThe competitive advantage that legacy automakers have in selling their new EVs is their dealer network. Will new EV customers prefer to continue going to their regular auto dealer to buy their new EV?\nAlmost all legacy automakers worldwide are developing and launching EVs including Volkswagen, Peugeot, Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi, Hyundai/Kia. Let's look a little more closely at GM and Ford as the leaders in the U.S.\nGeneral Motors (GM)\nGM has committed to introducing 20 new electric vehicles by 2023, including EVs across Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC, and Buick. It recently announced that it has already sold out the first-year production of its Hummer electric pickup. By mid-decade, it expects to sell a million EVs per year in its two largest markets: North America and China. As a reference point, Tesla reported deliveries of 367,500 vehicles globally in 2019.\nGM has a solid platform strategy for its EVs. It plans on building its EVs using five interchangeable drive units and three different motors from its Ultium Drive System platform. Ultium energy options range from 50 to 200 kWh, which could enable an estimated range of up to 400 miles. Most of its EVs will have 400-volt battery packs and up to 200 kW fast-charging capability while the truck platform will have 800-volt battery packs and 350 kW fast-charging capabilities.\nThe key building blocks of the Ultium battery system are large-scale, high-energy cells. Engineered in partnership with LG Energy Solutions, they use both advanced chemistry and a smart cell design that's optimized for a broad portfolio of EVs. GM engineers and scientists are actively researching and testing new elements in battery chemistry to lower costs and improve charge times. Ultium can contain either vertically- or horizontally-stacked cells to integrate into vehicle design: vertically for trucks, SUVs, and crossovers, or horizontally for cars and performance vehicles. As new chemistry is developed and becomes available, the battery management system could digitally update the modules.\nGM also has other EV opportunities with its BrightDrop commercial EV service and its Cruise subsidiary. BrightDrop will not just sell delivery EVs, it will provide an entire service platform for commercial delivery customers. Its set of electric delivery vehicles starts with the EV600 and includes the BrightDrop EP1, a pod-like electric pallet. SeeGeneral Motors' Aggressive EV/AV Strategies May Payoff Big.\nWith its highest stock price of $61.65, GM's current market cap is approximately $89 billion, increasing primarily because of its progress with EVs. This approximately 3X valuation in 2018, but still only 13% of Tesla.\nFord (F)\nFord is also investing heavily in EVs. It just introduced the Mustang Mach-E, a battery-powered crossover with sports car styling, and plans to introduce an all-electric version of its best-selling F-150 pickup later this year. Also, planned is an electric edition of the full-size Transit van, which has been popular in the commercial delivery market. Ford has confirmed plans to build a luxury Lincoln crossover on a battery-powered platform provided by Rivian. The automaker also plans to introduce two new midsize electric crossovers, one each for the Ford and Lincoln brands by 2023.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd8523e15bccc57790940d4218f7b94e\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"1080\">Mustang Mach-E. Source: Ford\nFord's market cap is approximately $51 billion, twice its previous market cap, and also increasing.\nConsumer Retail EV Companies\nThe consumer retail market has some unique characteristics for new EV companies. Sales are made individually, not in fleets. This diversifies the risk upon launch because only a sufficient number of customers need to be attracted to the new EV. A wave of popularity can provide terrific momentum.\nHowever, the lack of a dealer network can be an impediment. Selling EVs directly to consumers instead of through dealers is prohibited in most states. By law, auto manufacturers can't compete with franchised dealers. These are laws that go back many decades to protect dealers. This can be a major impediment for new companies without established independent dealer franchises. So, new AV companies. like Tesla, need to sell their vehicles online. Tesla has successfully done this, but it took a lot of work and time. Lack of a dealer network also creates impediments in service.\nIn addition, over the next 4-5 years, autonomous capabilities will be increasingly important to luxury vehicles. This may prove to be a challenge to start-up EV companies because they can't afford to develop this technology.\nLet's look closer at the alternative consumer retail EV investments.\nLucid Motors (CCIV)\nLucid was founded in 2007 under the name Atieva and originally focused on building electric vehicle batteries and powertrains for other vehicle manufacturers. The company rebranded itself as Lucid Motors in October 2016 and shifted its strategy to develop an all-electric, high-performance, luxury vehicle. Shortly after that, it encountered financial difficulties and struggled to get short-term funding. In 2018 it raised more than $1 billion in investment, primarily from Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund, and gave up a majority of the company.\nLucid Motors reached an agreement to become a publicly-traded company through a merger with the SPAC Churchill Capital IV Corp., in one of the largest deals SPAC EV deals. The combined company, in which Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund will continue to be the largest shareholder, had a transaction equity value of $11.75 billion (for $10/share). At the same time, it closed a PIPE investment priced at $15 a share, giving it an implied pro forma equity value of $24 billion. Rumors about this deal circulated before the transaction was formally announced, making it one of the most anticipated SPAC deals. The hype and speculation drove up the stock price of Churchill Capital IV Corp. from its opening price of $10 a share to almost $60. I believe that some of this may have been driven by novice SPAC investors who didn't realize that the valuation of CCIV didn't include the eventual valuation of Lucid. The share price dropped more than 30% after the details of the deal were announced. It's also likely that Lucid renegotiated the terms of the merger based on the price jump.\nThe company's first product is the Lucid Air, a well-equipped luxury electric vehicle that features 406 miles of projected range and 480 horsepower with a starting price of $77,400, or $69,900 after the U.S. Federal Tax Credit of $7,500. This new Lucid Air model is positioned as a high-performance, ultra-efficient luxury EV sedan in a line of future vehicles that are expected to include Lucid Air Touring, Grand Touring, and Dream Edition versions.\nThe company plans to begin production and deliveries of the Lucid Air in North America in the second half of 2021. Previously the company aimed to begin deliveries earlier in 2021. It intends to sell the car in Europe in 2022, followed by China in 2023. Lucid vehicles will be produced at its new factory in Casa Grande, Arizona. The company plans to expand the factory in phases in the coming years to have the capacity to produce 365,000 units per year at scale. The initial phase of the $700 million factory construction was completed late last year and will have the capacity to produce 30,000 vehicles a year.\nLucid also apparently has a commitment to build an assembly plant in Saudi Arabia, which was rumored to be a condition of the $1 billion investment from the Saudi public fund. The Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund also provided $600 million in bridge financing and invested in the SPAC deal as well. So, while this assembly plant may be expensive and may not be critical, it will most likely need to happen.\nLucid has ambitious plans to achieve $14 billion in revenue in 2025, and its current stock price at $29.17, which gives it a market cap of more than $46 billion, may already reflect those ambitions. Its market cap is roughly the same as Ford.\nFisker (FSR)\nFisker, which had its origins with Fisker Automotive, is an interesting story that ended in bankruptcy. Henrik Fisker originally co-founded Fisker Automotive in 2007. He was responsible for designing many premium cars such as the Aston Martin. Subsequently, Fisker Automotive had to deal with a Tesla lawsuit against Fisker Automotive alleging it stole Tesla's technology, a controversial $528.7 million conditional loan from the Department of Energy, a recall of its battery produced by A123, and the loss of several hundred vehicles in hurricane Sandy. Henrik Fisker resigned in March 2013 because of disagreements over business strategy and in November 2013, Fisker filed its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case.\nHowever, Henrik Fisker retained the Fisker brand and trademarks, and in 2016 he started another electric vehicle company named Fisker Inc. with the Fisker brand and trademarks. In 2019, Fisker shifted from developing a sports car with a solid-state battery to the Ocean SUV featuring a lithium-ion battery, which it later abandoned for a solid-state battery.\nFisker is positioning itself in a unique segment for those who want the most environmentally friendly EV. While this may be an early growth segment for EVs, it's difficult to estimate its eventual competitive advantage and the size of this environmentally-friendly market segment.\nThe Ocean is a crossover made of recycled metal and plastic with an expected base price of $37,499, and an expected lease of less than $400 a month. Fisker's plan is essentially a lease-only business model that lets customers keep a vehicle for years or return it at any time. It aims to source motors, batteries, and other components from technical partnerships with automakers and will outsource production from existing auto plants. Fisker is currently taking reservations at $250 for the Ocean. It also announced an agreement with Foxconn to jointly develop a vehicle pioneering a new market segment to be sold globally under the Fisker brand commencing in Q4 2023. at the end of 2022. Production will start at Magna Steyr's manufacturing facilities in Europe. At the end of February 2021, it had 12,467 cancellable reservations.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/924a617c90fc3276d7bdab8c64ebfdcf\" tg-width=\"744\" tg-height=\"389\">Fisker Ocean. Source: Fisker\nFisker went public using a SPAC (Spartan Energy). The original combination with SPAQ in October 2020 was valued at $2.9 billion with a cash investment of approximately $1 billion. The stock currently trades at approximately $21 per share, after reaching a high of $28.50, from the original price of $10, which is a market cap of $4.6 billion. Fisker projects $3.3 billion in revenue in 2023. It had almost $1 billion in cash at the end of 2020 and expected to use almost half of this in 2021: $250 million on operating expenses and $250 million in capital investments. If the Ocean is delayed into 2023, Fisker risks missing its revenue objective and will potentially need additional cash to complete development and launch.\nFaraday Future (PSAC)\nFaraday Future was originally established in May 2014 by Chinese businessman Jia Yueting. It is headquartered in Los Angeles and has offices in Silicon Valley, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu. Faraday Future also had a turbulent history. In 2016, it struggled financially, and in 2017 some key executives departed over a dispute about financial issues. They later founded Canoo.\nIn December 2018 the company announced layoffs due to a cash crunch and financial troubles. The company's founder Jia Yueting filed for personal bankruptcy in the United States' federal court in Delaware on October 14, 2019. Following Jia's personal bankruptcy, he decided to step down from his role as CEO of Faraday Future in order to assume a new position as the Chief Product and User Officer. He was replaced as CEO by Carsten Breitfeld, the former CEO at rival electric vehicle startup Byton.\nSomehow, Faraday was able to raise $2.3 billion in private funding over 5 rounds from a variety of investors. In early 2018, it received $1.5 billion in funding from an undisclosed investor from Hong Kong.\nFaraday's flagship product offering will be the FF 91, featuring 1,050 HP, 0-60 mph in less than 2.4 seconds, zero gravity seats with the largest 60-degree reclining angles, and a user experience designed to create a mobile, connected, and luxurious living space. The FF 91 is targeted to launch in 2022.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e38bfb3211c72bb73bc26f2ebe296fe\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"854\">FF 91. Source: Faraday Future\nIts strategic partners include one of China's top three OEMs and a critical Chinese city, which the company believes will help establish its presence in the Chinese vehicle market.\nFaraday Future plans several cars based on its Variable Platform Architecture. FF 91 is the first production vehicle and flagship model. Pricing will range between $120,000 and upwards of $200,000, which places it against formidable opponents. Faraday Future is already looking forward to expanding its range with a pair of smaller models named FF 81 and FF 71. The FF 81 is planned to be priced at $75,000 to 95,000 with a 2023 release. The FF 71 is planned to be priced at $45,000 to $65,000 with a planned release of 2024.\nThe Primary Manufacturing Facility for FF 91 is in Hanford, CA with contract manufacturing for future models in Gunsan, South Korea.\nFaraday Future is planning high-Level automation with a Level-3 capable system using a redundant safety architecture based on NVIDIA Xavier System-on-a-chip. It will be capable of highway auto-drive and hardware ready for advanced auto-drive. It is targeting full autonomous valet parking &amp; summon in any parking lot or structure. Eventually, it expects full auto-drive, including full 360˚ sensor coverage for advanced auto-drive &amp; auto-park features.\nIn January 2021, Faraday Future announced that the company would go public through a reverse merger with the special purpose acquisition company Property Solutions Acquisition Corp. (PSAC). The combined company will be valued at $3.4 billion. Faraday Future is expected to set up contract manufacturing operations in China through their partnership with Geely. Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn is also expected to serve as an additional strategic partner.\nFaraday Future projects $10.5 billion in revenue in 2024 and $21.5 billion in 2025. Revenue is expected to start in 2022 with the delivery of 2,400 vehicles for $504 million. Most likely these projections could prove to be optimistic. At a current stock price of approximately $12.80, it has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nLordstown Motors (RIDE)\nLordstown Motors based in Lordstown, Ohio, was originally founded in 2018 by Steve Burns, the former CEO of Workhorse Group. The company licensed technology from Workhorse in return for royalties and a 10% ownership. Lordstown is named after the famous GM Lordstown manufacturing plant, which it acquired in November 2019 in an unusual transaction. GM announced that it was closing the plant and was under a great deal of pressure for that decision. So, GM \"sold\" the plant to a company that was renamed Lordstown for an estimated $20 million that it loaned to the acquiring company. Subsequently, the sale was redefined to be part of a $75 million investment by GM, of which $50 million was an in-kind exchange for the plant.\nLordstown went public through the SPAC DiamondPeak Holdings Corp. in 2020. It currently has more than 400 employees.\nIts first product is the Lordstown Endurance, a full-sized EV pickup truck. Lordstown is positioning Endurance for the pickup fleet market segment. The expected price is $52,000+, and it claimed to have more than 100,000 pre-orders by January 2021. However, a recent research article published by a short seller claimed \"Our research has revealed that Lordstown's order book consists of fake or entirely non-binding orders, from customers that generally do not even have fleets of vehicles.\" Lordstown is disputing that article.\nIt believes the fleet pickup market segment is underserved with no current EV-focused competition. It estimates that the full-sized pick-up truck fleet market is 1.2 million vehicles per year in the U.S., but it's more fragmented than other truck fleets. Pickup \"fleets\" tend to be much smaller and local, so there may not be much of a market distinction for a small company buying several EV pickups from a traditional auto dealer. About half of the total U.S. pickup market is classified as fleet sales, meaning more than one.\nEven though Lordstown is targeting the commercial fleet market, it is a similar product to the Ford EV F-150. So I classify it in the consumer EV category. It is a class 2 vehicle. Lordstown also may enter the SUV market in the longer-term.\nThe Endurance will compete against future models from Rivian and Tesla, as well as Ford and GM in ICE pick-ups and their upcoming EV pick-ups. Ford plans on selling its EV F-150 in mid-2022. Initial production of the Endurance is expected in the second half of 2021, so it may have a short market advantage. Nevertheless, it forecasts selling 65,000 vehicles in 2023 and 107,000 in 2024. These estimates could be a large percentage of the EV pick-up market in those years.\nAt the SPAC merger, the implied valuation for Lordstown was $1.6 billion, including a $500 million PIPE and the $75 million by GM. Lordstown's financial projections appear to be aggressive. It projects to start shipping the Endurance in late 2021 with projected revenue in 2022 of $1.7 billion, increasing to $5.8 billion in 2024. Its stock price at approximately $13.60 values the company at a market cap of approximately $2.2 billion. The value of the company depends on the likelihood of achieving its projections.\nA fleet sales strategy makes sense for Lordstown since it would be too expensive to build a retail sales and service capability. However, it's not clear that this will become a distinct competitive advantage. Some small fleets may still prefer to buy their EV pickups from established local dealers with service capabilities.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nCanoo started as Evelozcity in 2017 and rebranded as Canoo in the spring of 2019. Canoo is a Los Angeles-based company that develops electric vehicles. It has over 350 employees. Canoo has designed a modular electric platform purpose-built to deliver maximum vehicle interior space, which is adaptable to support a wide range of vehicle applications for consumers and businesses. Canoo expects to launch its first consumer model in 2022, simply named the Canoo that will be available by subscription, followed shortly after by a multi-purpose delivery vehicle and a sports vehicle, each built off of the same underlying platform. Canoo went public using a SPAC (Hennessy Capital Acquisition) and now trades as GOEV.\nCanoo's all-electric skateboard-like platform is designed to support both consumer retail and commercial vehicle configurations. The EV leverages Canoo's flat skateboard architecture for a high level of usable interior space. Its commercial vehicle program, expected in 2023, addresses a projected $50B+ last-mile delivery market with an EV platform that maximizes cargo volume.\nHyundai Motor Group said it would jointly develop an electric vehicle platform with the company.\nCanoo's platform strategy is interesting. It could be used as an EV platform for custom fleets of delivery vehicles. It has no AV development, but it claims to be \"AV Ready\" which could be useful for AV companies wanting to build custom AV delivery fleets.\nIts all-electric multi-purpose delivery vehicle is expected to be priced starting at approximately $33,000. It is based on Canoo's proprietary electric platform and will be offered in two initial size variants, with others to follow. Limited availability will begin in 2022, with scaled production and launch planned for 2023. Customers can pre-order the multi-purpose delivery vehicle for a refundable deposit of $100 per vehicle\nIt plans to offer two multi-purpose delivery vehicles: the MPDV1 and the larger MPDV2. The first has a 200-foot cargo volume and a range of 130-200 miles. It offers more capacity than today's ICE delivery vehicles at an affordable price with urban mobility enabled by a space-efficient footprint. The vehicle is also designed to fit within many height-restricted areas like parking garages.\nThe MPDV2 has a cargo volume of 450 feet and a range of 90-190 miles. Its roof and step-in height enable individuals to easily walk-in the vehicle and accommodate a standing position while inside.\nThe original SPAC transaction provided approximately $600 million, with a pro forma equity value of approximately $2.4 billion. Like other SPAC mergers, its stock price has fluctuated. It currently trades at about $15.90 per share for a market cap of approximately $3.7 billion. Canoo projects $2.0 billion in revenue in 2025 from about $500 million in engineering services, $1.2 billion from its consumer vehicle subscriptions, and the remainder from its commercial program. Canoo expects revenue of more than $300 million in 2022 after the launch of its lifestyle consumer vehicle.\nSince its first products are aimed at consumers, as is most of its forecasted 2025 revenue, I categorize it primarily as a consumer EV company. However, I think the design of that Canoo vehicle may not attract enough customers. More importantly, its subscription service way of selling its EV to consumers is risky. I think it has more potential in the commercial market, however, a dual strategy (consumer and commercial) is challenging. I like its skateboard platform design and that could prove to be a competitive advantage.\nRivian\nAlthough not yet public, I include Rivian because it has plans for an IPO as soon as Sept 2021, although it could slip into 2022. There are rumors that the company is targeting a market valuation of approximately $50B. Rivian has already raised more than $8 billion to date from Amazon, Ford, T. Rowe Price, and others.\nRivian has developed and vertically integrated a connected electric platform that can be flexibly applied to a range of applications, including the company's adventure products, as well as B2B products such as the Amazon last-mile delivery vans. The company's initial products, the R1T and R1S, provide a combination of performance, off-road capability, and utility. These vehicles will be produced at Rivian's manufacturing plant in Normal, Ill., with customer deliveries expected to begin in summer 2021. The launch of the R1S three-row electric SUV will follow in August.\nAdditional lower-priced models are being planned. The expected R2 series would include at least two smaller electric vehicles to coincide with the smaller platform, then another platform for R3.\nCommercial Delivery EV Companies\nEV truck companies differ based on the type of truck they are developing. The technology and markets are very different, so I separate them into two categories. The first category includes commercial delivery vehicles.\nCompanies making EV delivery vehicles have some major advantages that could make them good investments. First, delivery vehicles typically travel less than 250 miles during a day, so they can be conveniently recharged overnight. Secondly, they are typically sold in large quantities to fleets. This means that building a retail sales infrastructure is not necessary. It only requires a small salesforce. In addition, maintenance can also be provided at the fleet's operational center, so not as many service centers are required.\nThe disadvantage in this market is that there are a relatively small number of customers that buy in large volumes, so if the EV manufacturer can't get enough large customers, they may not be able to stay in business. GM estimates the combined market opportunity for parcel and food delivery, as well as reverse logistics, in the U.S. will be more than $850 billion by 2025.\nThe commercial market is expected to be a major growth area for EVs. Other start-up automakers like Rivian as well as legacy automakers such as Ford, Daimler, and GM have announced plans to enter the segment. GM recently announced its BrightDrop ecosystem for commercial customers that includes an all-new electric delivery van, the EV600 available by the end of 2021, as well as an integrated autonomous pallet and related services.\nThis group of EV companies focuses primarily on commercial delivery. In general, these are in the light-duty trucks category, although it also includes some medium-duty trucks. This generally includes the following commercial truck classes:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 1: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 0-6,000 pounds or 0-2,722 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 2: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 6,001-10,000 pounds or 2,722-4,536 kilograms.1</li>\n <li>Class 3: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 10,001-14,000 pounds or 4,536-6,350 kilograms.</li>\n</ul>\nIt can also include somewhat larger medium-duty EV delivery trucks:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.</li>\n</ul>\nEV delivery trucks also have an advantage over ICE vehicles because they can have a greater delivery storage space. Smaller buses and transit vehicles are also included in this category.\nLast-mile package delivery is not an immediate-term autonomous vehicle opportunity because it requires a delivery person to be on the truck anyway.\nWorkhorse Group (WKHS)\nWorkhorse has been a public company for ten years. Originally AMP Electric Vehicles, it was established in 2007 as a developmental-stage vehicle electrification company, focusing on conversions. AMP Electric Vehicles went public in 2010 trading on the OTC market under the AMPD symbol. When the economic benefits of conversion became less certain, it pivoted away from passenger vehicles and began to focus on electrifying commercial vehicles. AMP acquired the Workhorse brand and the Workhorse custom chassis assembly plant in Union City. In March of 2013, AMP formally changed its name to Workhorse Group Incorporated.\nThe Company designs and builds a last-mile delivery electric vehicle. The C-Series EVs cover the larger size of commercial delivery vehicles in Classes 3-5. As part of its solutions, it also develops cloud-based, real-time telematics performance monitoring systems. It sells its vehicles to fleet customers directly and through its primary distributor, Ryder Systems. It is currently focused on bringing the C-Series electric delivery truck to market and fulfilling the existing backlog of orders.\nThe C-Series looks like a viable EV replacement for the 350,000 last-mile delivery vehicles sold in the U.S. annually. It recently announced an increased driving range from 100 miles to 160, which should open more market opportunities. It has a viable short-term go-to-market strategy selling fleets to delivery companies. It currently has test vehicles with UPS, DHL, FedEx, Amazon, and Walmart.\nWorkhorse recently lost out on the United States Postal Services Next Generation Delivery Vehicle project, however, it is in the process of challenging this decision. Additionally, its investment in Lordstown also provides an indirect investment opportunity. On November 7, 2019, the Company entered a transaction with Lordstown Motors to grant LMC a perpetual and worldwide license to certain intellectual property relating to its W-15 electric pickup truck platform and related technology in exchange for royalties, equity interest (approximately 10%) in LMC, and other considerations. This was a $320 million asset for Workhorse at the end of 2020.\nWorkhorse received a significant increase in orders in Q4/2020 but built just seven trucks in the fourth quarter due to production systems and supply chain issues. Workhorse plans to continue to take it slow, striving to build three of its composite-body battery-electric trucks a day in March with a plan to reach 10 trucks a day by the end of June. This makes its original 2021 goal of producing 1,800 trucks unlikely. It partnered with Hitachi and Hitachi Capital America (\"HCA\") to improve the Company's manufacturing, operational, and supply chain capabilities as well as to develop a national dealer network to support Workhorse's sales with vehicle financing options for both dealers and customers.\nWorkhorse has a market cap of approximately $1.9 billion. While Workhorse had ongoing revenue, unlike many other new EV companies, its revenue is still insignificant. It had a revenue of $1.4 million in 2020 and $377,000 in 2019. It has a backlog of over 8,000 vehicles but doesn't expect to be able to build many of those in 2021. It raised $270 million in capital over several financings, providing the Company with additional capital to build its backlog. It had cash of $215 million as of March 1, 2021. Because Workhorse is a traditional public company, it hasn't made long-term financial projections like SPAC-based companies.\nElectric Last Mile (FIII)\nElectric Last Mile, based in Troy Michigan, was founded by Jason Luo, former CEO of Ford China before it was acquired by China's Ningbo Joyson Electronic for $920 million in 2016, including James Taylor, former CEO of GM's Hummer brand and former CEO of electric car maker Karma Automotive. Taylor serves as the company's top executive with Luo as the company's chairman.\nThe company plans to launch a small electric delivery van (class 1-2), called the UD-1, in the third quarter of 2021, and then introduce an Urban Utility vehicle (Class 2-3) in 2022. These are expected to compete with Workhorse, Rivian, Canoo, as well as the Ford eTransit and the GMC BV1, none of which is expected to be a Class 1 vehicle.\nThe company says it has 30,000 preorders for its van, representing more than $1 billion in sales. Electric Last Miles vehicles will be based on Sokon's commercial van made in China through a joint venture with Dongfeng Automobile Co Ltd. in order to accelerate development time.\nElectric Last Mile (ELM) is expected to manufacture the vans in a former General Motors Co. Hummer plant in Mishawaka, Ind., that the company is acquiring from China's Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co. Ltd. The plant has the capacity to produce 100,000 vehicles annually with plans to build approximately 4,000 UD-1 vans by the end of 2021. The UD-1 has a starting price of $32,500 and a range of 150 miles. The battery for the vehicle is expected to be supplied by the Chinese battery company CATL.\nELM believes that it has a competitive advantage because its first vehicle, the ELM Urban Delivery, is scheduled to be available in 2021. It is based on a proven, existing platform developed and sold by Sokon Group in the Asian market, where there are 30,000 of these electric delivery vehicles driving 1.5 million miles every day. At the close of the business combination, ELM will be an independent, U.S. company producing electric vehicles in the U.S. with Sokon Group providing access to its know-how, parts supply, and field and service data.\nELM expects that the Urban Delivery vehicle will be the first electric delivery vehicle coming to market in the class 1 category (GVW of 6,000 lbs or less) in the U.S. It will also have 35% more carrying volume compared to similar ICE delivery vehicles, a critical part of the value proposition. It also anticipates that its price and greater carrying volume will allow it to take market share from the class 2 category of vehicles as well.\nIts crossover product portfolio strategy targets commercial delivery vehicles spanning from class 1 to class 3, which represents over 80% of the last mile market.\nELM anticipates $122 million in revenue in 2021, rapidly increasing to $3 billion in 2025. The price of FIII stock increased immediately following its announcement with Electric Last Mile, rising more than 40% to $14.50, but now it has dropped closer to the original deal price to $10.25 for a market cap of approximately $1.5 billion.\nGreenPower Motor Company (GP)\nGreenPower Motor Company Inc. is a Canadian battery-electric bus manufacturer with multiple models of high- and low-floor vehicles, including transit buses, school buses, and shuttles. GreenPower offers commercial vehicles for delivery, public transit, schools, vanpooling, micro-transit, shuttles, and is developing a capability of autonomous operation. It went public on August 28, 2020.\nIn 2014 GreenPower launched its first purpose-built, battery-electric bus, the EV350, 40-foot transit bus. GreenPower received its first order in 2017 for ten EV350s from the City of Porterville, California.\nGreenPower's electric buses are purpose-built and designed to be all-electric, allowing it to put the battery and propulsion system in optimized locations that provide weight and structural advantages. Its primary EV is the EV Star with more than 120 vehicles delivered. It comes in several variations:\n<ul>\n <li>EV Star - Up to 19 passengers</li>\n <li>EV Star Plus - Up to 24 passengers</li>\n <li>EV Star ADA - Passenger and curbside lift for ADA</li>\n <li>EV Star Cargo - 5,000 pounds of load</li>\n <li>EV Star Cargo Plus - 570 cubic feet of cargo space.</li>\n</ul>\nIts EV school bus seats up to 90 students and has a range of up to 150 miles.\nGreenPower had revenue of $13.5 million in 2020 It has about $21 million in cash. It's an interesting alternative since it is already shipping EVs, has revenue, and also has a lower market cap of less than $1 billion. Since it did a traditional IPO, it hasn't published longer-term financial forecasts.\nArrival (CIIC)\nArrival was founded in 2015 in London to make a variety of commercial electric vehicles. It has approximately 1,200 employees across 11 cities in 8 countries. In November 2020, Arrival and the SPAC CIIG entered into a business combination agreement with an implied valuation of $5.39 billion.\nArrival plans on releasing four commercial EVs over the next few years.\n<ul>\n <li>Q4/2021: An electric bus for 8-125 passengers and a range of 240-400km</li>\n <li>Q3/2022: An electric delivery van with a payload of 975-2,000kg and a range of 150-340km</li>\n <li>2022: A larger electric van with a payload of 4,000 kg and a range of 190-400km</li>\n <li>2023: a small vehicle platform with a range of 100-300km.</li>\n</ul>\nThis mix provides a nice diversified portfolio of EVs. Arrival claims to have received orders from UPS for 10,000 vans. It plans a unique flexible manufacturing approach using micro-factories with each projected to manufacture 10,000 vans per year. All of its vehicles use a modular skateboard electric platform.\nArrival ambitiously projects $14.1 billion in revenue in 2024. Half of that revenue is expected from delivery vans, 22% from buses, and the rest from the large van and its small vehicle platform. With CIIC's stock price at $24.80 per share, Arrival's current market cap is relatively high at approximately $15.0 billion. Justifying its market cap depends on its ability to release, sell, and produce its four commercial EVs.\nProterra (ACTC)\nProterra is a commercial electric vehicle company with over a decade of production experience. The Company has designed an end-to-end, flexible technology platform that claims to deliver higher performance and a low total cost of ownership to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end customers.\nProterra, Inc., was originally founded in Golden, Colorado, by Dale Hill in 2004. Later the company wanted to take the lead in creating zero-emission, U.S.-based transit buses. In 2010 it moved its manufacturing plant from Golden, Colorado to Greenville, South Carolina. In 2015, Proterra was awarded a $3 million grant from the California Energy Commission to fund the design, development, and construction of the company's battery-electric transit bus manufacturing line in the City of Industry, California. It moved its headquarters from Greenville, South Carolina, to Burlingame, California, in October 2015. Proterra raised more than $600 million in funding.\nIt is going public through the SPAC ArcLight (ACTC) with a pro forma valuation of $1.6 billion. Upon completion of the transaction, Proterra expects to have up to $825 million in cash to fund growth initiatives, including R&amp;D and the expansion of its next-generation battery program.\nProterra has three complementary businesses:\n<ul>\n <li>Proterra Powered: Delivering battery systems and electrification solutions to commercial vehicle manufacturers</li>\n <li>Proterra Transit:Providing an electric transit bus OEMs</li>\n <li>Proterra Energy:Offering turnkey charging and energy management solutions.</li>\n</ul>\nThe company's battery systems have been proven in more than 16 million service miles driven by its fleet of transit vehicles and validated through partnerships with commercial vehicle OEMs. Proterra has produced and delivered more than 300 megawatt-hours of battery systems, more than 550 heavy-duty electric transit buses, and installed 54 megawatts of charging systems.\nProterra expected $193 million of revenue in 2020, with an estimated $750 million in existing orders and backlog. It projects $2.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with about 1/3 coming from its Transit business, and 2/3 From Powered &amp; Energy. At ACTC's current stock price of $17.85, Proterra has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nRivian\nRivian (see earlier description in consumer retail) will also compete in the commercial delivery market. It has been working with Amazon (a major investor) to build large electric delivery vans for Prime. Developed specifically for Amazon, a small fleet of Prime vans is on the road now, testing deliveries to customers and gathering feedback. In late fall, it could grow to a large fleet as Rivian ramps up the volume.\nThe EV range of 150 miles is tailored to Amazon's use cycle to optimize the size, weight, and cost of the commercial vehicle. Rivian has three sizes of batteries, but Amazon is starting with just one of them.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nSee the previous summary under consumer retail EV.\nMedium and Long-Haul Trucking EV Companies\nCompanies developing medium- and long-haul EV trucks face a more difficult challenge with battery range. These trucks haul much more weight than commercial delivery vehicles and because they are designed for long distances, they can't stop every 200-300 miles for recharging.\nFor this reason, many of these companies are using unique hybrid technologies for their trucks. The EV trucks in this category are primarily heavy-duty but also include some medium-duty trucks and specialty vehicles. A couple of the companies focus on retrofitting trucks to be electric.\nMedium-Duty Trucks\nThe medium-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 4, 5, and 6:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 6: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 19,501-26,000 pounds or 8,846-11,793 kilograms.1</li>\n</ul>\nHeavy-Duty Trucks\nThe heavy-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 7 and 8:\n<ul>\n <li>Class 7: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 26,001 to 33,000 pounds or 11,794-14,969 kilograms.</li>\n <li>Class 8: This class of trucks has a GVWR of greater than 33,001 pounds or 14,969 kilograms and includes all tractor-trailers.</li>\n</ul>\nThe Tesla Semi is a battery vehicle planned for a range of 300 or 500 miles and a speed of 60 MPH with 80,000 lbs of cargo. Tesla plans to start shipping the Semi later this year when it expects to have sufficient cell volume to meet its needs with the production of its 4680 battery pack.\nNikola(NASDAQ:NKLA)\nNikola has been a very controversial company. Founded in 2015, it originally had two different strategies. Its primary strategy is to lease fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) Class-8 heavy trucks and provide the refueling infrastructure to corporate customers. Its second strategy was to develop the Badger EV truck using GM technology.\nNikola originally merged with a SPAC to go public, at an enterprise value of approximately $3.3 billion. On June 6th, 2020, its market cap jumped to more than $30 billion, then later it dropped because of problems with its originally planned deal with GM.\nNikola originally expected a deal with General Motors that included the production of the Nikola Badger EV pickup truck. The proposed arrangement was that GM would take a $2 billion equity stake in Nikola and in return would engineer and produce the Badger. In November 2020, GM and Nikola scrapped the original arrangement. Now it appears that GM will supply Nikola with only its Hydrotec hydrogen fuel-cell technology to integrate into the EV manufacturer's commercial class 7 and class 8 zero-emission semi-trucks. So, the Badger is probably dead.\nNikola now sees semi-trucks as the company's \"core business\" and fuel cells as an increasingly important segment of the semi-truck market thanks to their efficiency in weight and consumption. It expects to begin testing by the end of 2021.\nIt has received pre-orders from Anheuser-Busch and a few other companies, but it doesn't expect deliveries until 2023. Hydrogen fueling stations are key to its strategy, both providing a source of revenue and necessary fueling infrastructure for the trucks to operate, but they also cost a lot. In its March 2020 investor deck, Nikola said a single station capable of fueling 210 trucks a day would cost $16.6 million. Its initial planned network of 700 stations would cost roughly $11.6 billion.\nNikola was also accused of misrepresentation, and its executive chairman and founder stepped down.\nAt the time of the SPAC merger, it projected an optimistic forecast of more than $3 billion in revenue by 2024, with a net income of $145 million. Most of that revenue was expected to come from its Badger truck, which is no longer in the plans. Yet its market cap is still almost $6 billion.\nHyliion (HYLN)\nHyliion, founded in 2015 in Austin, went public in October 2020 through the SPAC Tortoise Acquisition Corp. (SHLL). In March 2019, automotive parts manufacturer Dana Inc. made an equity investment into Hyliion, and together they are manufacturing and marketing Class 8 EVs to Dana's customers, including Volvo, Navistar, and Peterbilt.\nHyliion's strategy is unique, and a very different strategy from Nikola. Essentially it generates electricity onboard the truck using compressed natural gas (CNG). This should be a benefit for longer-range trucking. Hyliion's Hypertruck concept involves an all-electric drivetrain utilizing Dana's electric motor, inverter, and axle technologies. The truck's batteries are fueled by onboard tanks of CNG. With some 700 CNG stations already operating nationwide, it believes that there no need to build out expensive superchargers or hydrogen infrastructure.\nKuwait-based logistics company, Agility, has already placed an order for 1,000 Hypertrucks with initial deliveries targeted in 2022. Combined with a fully electric drivetrain and a natural gas-powered onboard generator to recharge the battery, the Hypertruck ERX will provide more than 1,000 miles of range.\nHyliion will eventually compete with Nikola (FCEV) and the Tesla battery-based Semi, but it plans to have a longer range and lower operating costs. Its HyperTruck ERX is expected to be available in 2021. It also has a hybrid-electric truck.\nThe combination with SHLL had an estimated market cap of about $1.5 billion, with approximately $530 million going to the company, including a $325 million fully committed PIPE. At approximately $13.50 per share, its current market cap is approximately $2.2 billion, significantly down from its peak. Hyliion projects $2 billion in revenue in 2024, which it claims is only about 2% of the addressable market.\nXL Fleet (XL)\nXL Fleet is a 10-year old company that went public through the SPAC Pivotal. XL is different because it provides fleet electrification modifications for ICE trucks across a wide range of vehicle classes (class 2-5) and types. It has over 200 of the largest commercial and municipal fleets as customers, with more than 3,200 XL systems deployed and over 130 million miles driven by customers to date. XL's customer base includes FedEx, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Verizon, the City of Boston, Seattle Fire Department, Yale University, and Harvard University.\nXL's business model is essentially retrofitting existing trucks to be hybrids and then later expanding into fully electric truck conversions. It claims to be creating a fully integrated platform for this. It remains to be seen if the retrofitting business will continue to grow or will it diminish when more trucks are designed and manufactured with EV capabilities.\nUnlike some other EV companies that have no revenue yet because they are still developing products, XL is more of a small company doing low-volume retrofits. It had $7.2 million in revenue in 2019, $21 million in 2020, and estimates $76 million in 2021, but it forecasts $1.3 billion in revenue in 2024 in its investor presentation. It plans to do this by expanding its product line from hybrid to plug-in hybrid to fully electric across a broader range of trucks. It claims to have a $220 million sales pipeline for the next 12 months.\nShort-seller, Muddy Waters, claimed after talking to former XL Fleet employees, that it believed the company significantly exaggerated its order backlog, that the return on investment for the company's products was likely negative, and that it would not be able to compete with big car makers on electrification. The company thoroughly refuted these claims.\nThe original enterprise valuation was approximately $1.4 billion at a $10 share price for the merger. Its price jumped by about 35% but has since gone back down to $12.40 for a market cap of about $1.8 billion. Although XL Fleet has revenue and other EV companies don't, this may not be an advantage. It appears to be a small company for many years that has gone public at a high valuation with grand plans. The risks are in its ability to make a jump from $76 million in 2021 to $1.3 billion in 2024, as well as the question about retrofitting being replaced by new EV trucks by then.\nXos (NGAC)\nXos Trucks specializes in the field of manufacturing fully electric commercial vehicles. It features a software platform that is designed to accommodate an extensive variety of medium-duty bodies, wheelbase, and range requirements up to 200 miles. It was founded in 2016 and headquartered in North Hollywood, California. It received $20 million of investment in 2020 and now is going public through a merger with the SPAC ExtGen Acquisition Corporation (NGAC) at an estimated proforma value of $1.965 billion.\nIts focus is on medium- and heavy-duty last mile and return-to-base segments (class 5/6, class 6/7, and class 7/8) commercial fleets and specialty vehicles. Some vehicles are currently in production and in regular on-road operations with key fleet customers, and it claimed 6,000 unit orders in backlog.\nIts MD-platform is for classes 5-6 for pickup and delivery. Its HD X-Platform is an adaptable chassis for highway, vocational, and severe work conditions. Its market is for customers with highly predictable routes that allow for batteries designed for a more limited range. A significantly larger frame and smaller battery pack allow for reduced density.\nXos has a bundled all-in-one offering that allows fleets to access all the tools and services they need to go electric with a single point of contact at a fixed monthly expense.\nXos had $3 million in revenue in 2020 and estimates $14 million in 2021. However, it forecasts $5.2 billion in revenue in 2025. At the current stock price of $10.30, its market cap is approximately $2 billion, about the same as its original SPAC transaction.\nLion Electric (NGA)\nLion Electric is a Canadian company founded by Marc Bédard in 2008. Its focus is to be a leader in designing, developing, and manufacturing purpose-built urban electric vehicles; vehicles that are specifically designed as delivery trucks, refuse trucks, bucket trucks, moving trucks, school buses, and shuttle buses. It has over 300 all-electric vehicles on the road today.\nIn November 2020, it announced that it was going public through the SPAC NGA. The transaction had an estimated pro forma enterprise value of $1.5 billion.\nIt plans on seven new truck models and one new school bus, for a total of 15 all-electric vehicles, representing a full line-up from class 5 to class 8 electric trucks and a full line-up of electric school buses. Its vehicles are produced at its existing manufacturing plant, which has the capacity for the production of up to 2,500 vehicles per year. It intends to open a new plant in the U.S. capable of delivering over 20,000 Lion trucks and buses per year by 2022.\nIts all-electric class 6 and class 8 commercial urban trucks combine power, comfort, and modern technology. Custom-built chassis and cabin designed specifically for an all-electric heavy-duty vehicle. The LionC is an all-electric Type C school bus manufactured in North America. The body and chassis were specifically designed to deliver optimal performance. The LionM is an all-electric midi/minibus that meets paratransit and public transportation requirements. Created and designed specifically for the paratransit market, the is spacious and offers unique features that provide enhanced security and accessibility to the end-users.\nLion Electric had $29 million in revenue in 2020 and expects $204 million in 2021. It forecasts revenue to jump to $3.6 billion a few years later in 2024. Its current market cap is approximately $3.6 billion based on its current stock price of $18.33.\nLightning eMotors (GIK)\nLightning eMotors, formerly Lightning Systems, was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Loveland, Colorado. It provides fleet electrification for familiar commercial vehicle platforms by retrofitting them with its electric powertrains. Lightning eMotors produces electric fleet medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including delivery trucks, shuttle buses, passenger vans, ambulances, bucket trucks, chassis-cab models, and city transit buses. It focuses on urban commercial zero-emission vehicles with a full range of class 3 through class 7 battery-electric and fuel-cell electric vehicles.\nLighting eMotors helps commercial fleets achieve their sustainability goals by offering zero-emission battery-electric vans, trucks, and buses based on familiar, proven vehicles from manufacturers such as Ford and GM. It works with customers, to help them identify their unique commercial electric vehicle, charging, and grant support needs.\nThe Lightning products include integrated all-electric powertrains for the Ford Transit 350HD passenger and cargo vans, Ford E-450 shuttle bus and cutaway models, Ford F-59 step/food van, Ford F-550 cargo trucks and buses, Chevrolet 6500XD Low Cab Forward model, and 30-foot, 35-foot, and 40-foot transit buses.\nLightning has 120 vehicles on the road, and 1,500 vehicles already on order from customers. In addition to making vehicles and powertrains, Lightning also provides a full suite of charging solutions for customers.\nThe deal with GIK has an enterprise value of $650 million, although there is also an Earnout of 20.0% of total pro forma shares outstanding to Lightning eMotors shareholders if the stock crosses certain price thresholds.\nAt the current price, of $11.73, GIK has a market cap of approximately $1 billion, a little more than the original transaction valuation. Similar to XL Fleet, Lightning has the risk that retrofitting may only be an interim business opportunity until more EV trucks are produced.\nPublic Chinese EV Companies\nChina will be the biggest EV market opportunity, and EV start-ups may do better there because there isn't as much entrenched competition from domestic auto companies. China is already the largest EV market in the world, with almost a million EVs sold in 2019. Its EV market represents almost half of the global EV sales volume and is much larger than the U.S. market.\nThe Chinese government has ambitions to become a global leader in new energy vehicles. Soon after the coronavirus outbreak subsided within the country, Chinese authorities announced new policies to support the auto and electric vehicle industries.\nThese Chinese companies are traded through American depository shares (ADS) that contain certain risks. There are financial reporting and transparency risks with these companies, and on top of that, the newer companies are being classified as \"emerging growth\" companies that are already exempt from certain transparency requirements set out in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Like the previous EV stock, these stocks have also been very volatile.\nIn addition to legacy auto manufacturers like BYD, there are also three Chinese EV companies that are publicly traded through American depositary shares.\nBYD Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:BYDDY)\nBYD, which means build your dreams, is the automotive subsidiary of the Chinese multinational BYD Co Ltd. It was founded in January 2003, following BYD Company's acquisition of Tsinchuan Automobile Company. The company produces automobiles, buses, electric bicycles, forklifts, rechargeable batteries, and trucks. The current model range of automobiles includes electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and petrol-engined vehicles. Thirteen years ago, on the advice of his famously skeptical lieutenant, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett made a $232 million investment in BYD, a relatively unknown Chinese car company.\nBy parlaying BYD's rechargeable battery technology into a fast-growing carmaking operation, it gained a foothold in the fledgling electric vehicle market, building longer-lasting batteries and cheaper vehicles than American and Japanese manufacturers were managing to do at the time. In BYD, Buffett and Munger believed they had found a company with a shot at one day becoming the largest player in a global automobile market that was inevitably going electric.\nBYD's start to 2021 was strong with 19,871 plug-in electric cars sold in January in China, including hybrid plug-ins. That was a big increase over 2020 but not as much as 2019.\nLI Auto (LI)\nLixiang, formerly known as Chehejia (\"Car and Home\"), was founded in 2015 and went public in the U.S. on July 30th, 2020. It is a Beijing-based electric-vehicle startup with vertically integrated manufacturing. It designs, researches, manufactures, sells, and offers services featuring a few models of electric vehicles.\nThe company's SUVs are hybrids of a sort. They use electric motors (one on the front axle and one on the rear), but those motors are powered by a combination of a 40.5kWh battery packanda 1.2-liter turbocharged engine paired to a 45-liter fuel tank and a 100kW electric generator, which generates power for the battery pack in real-time. The idea is that the car can be driven for about 100 miles on battery power alone, but it has a total range of nearly 500 miles when leveraging the combustion engine generator.\nThe Company's primary product is an SUV under its brand Li ONE. It also sells peripheral products and provides related services, such as charging stalls, vehicle internet connection services, and extended lifetime warranties. Li Auto is looking to sell a variety of SUVs built on its hybrid technology that range from around $21,000 to about $70,000. The company started shipping its first model in late 2019. It's a midsize SUV is well-appointed and has lots of touchscreens and technology. A full-size premium version is planned for release in 2022.\nDeliveries of Li ONEs were 14,464 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a 67.0% quarter-over-quarter increase and setting a new quarterly record. Deliveries for the full year 2020 reached 32,624 vehicles. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $635 million.\nLI auto went public on July 30th, 2020, raising $1.1 billion at an initial price of $15.50 per share but quickly reached almost $24. It is currently valued at approximately $37 billion at a price of approximately $25.72 per share.\nXPeng (XPEV)\nXiaopeng (XPeng) Motors is a Chinese electric vehicle and technology company that designs and manufactures smart cars. It was founded in 2015 and went public on August 27, 2020, using American depository shares, raising about $1 billion. To date, it has raised about $2.6 billion.\nXPeng aims its EVs at technology-savvy middle-class Chinese consumers, with prices ranging from $22,000 to $45,000 after government subsidies. In some ways, it is a Tesla knock-off at a much lower price. XPeng started production of the G3 in November 2018, and as of July 31, 2020, delivered 18,741. It started production of the P7 and began delivery in May 2020, and as of July 31, 2020, it had delivered 1,966 EVs. The P7 has a range of more than 400 miles. It plans to launch a third Smart EV, a sedan, in 2021. The G3 was among the top-three best-selling electric SUVs in China in 2019.\nXPeng is interesting because it has a platform strategy and is moving aggressively into autonomous driving. It uses a platform strategy to expand product offerings by launching one Smart EV model each year to broaden the addressable market. It builds new models on two highly flexible Smart EV platforms, called David and Edward, respectively. The David platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,600 millimeters to 2,800 millimeters, and the Edward platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,800 millimeters to 3,100 millimeters. It also adopted a platform approach for software systems.\nXPeng claims to be developing an autonomous driving capability for its EVs. The P7 is the first production vehicle to feature the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Xavier system-on-a-chip (SoC) autonomous driving platform. The company's Smart Electric Platform Architecture (SEPA) runs on 2 chips - NVIDIA for the XPILOT and Qualcomm's Snapdragon™ 820A for intelligent services and infotainment, including cameras inside and outside, radars, HD-map, and ultrasonic sensors. Like Tesla, it claims it can create sufficiently-autonomous driving without lidar.\nTo enhance brand recognition and allow more people to experience its Smart EVs, it deployed a small number of Smart EVs in a ride-hailing service in Guangzhou on a trial basis, but it has no current plan to scale up a ride-hailing service.\nXpeng sees first-quarter 2021 deliveries rising 450% year-over-year to 12,500 vehicles. Revenues are expected to increase 533% from a year ago. The company didn't provide bottom-line estimates for the quarter, but will likely post another net loss as it ramps up manufacturing, invests in R&amp;D, and builds out a new manufacturing plant set to open in 2022.\nXpeng reported selling 12,964 vehicles in Q4 2020, up 303% from a year ago. It delivered a total of 27,041 vehicles in 2020, up 112%. It makes the P7 sedan, a rival to the made-in-China Tesla Model 3, and the small G3 SUV.\nThe stock opened on August 27, 2020 at a price of $15 and a valuation of $11 billion, but its stock jumped more than 40% shortly after. Its current valuation is about $35 billion at a stock price of approximately $36.13 per share. It had about $300 million in revenue in 2019 with a loss of about $500 million.\nNio (NIO)\nUnlike previous companies, Nio has been a public company for some time. It originally went public in the U.S. back in September of 2018, selling IPO shares at $6.26 and raising $1 billion.\nNio's IPO was far from smooth. After going public at $6.26 per share, it traded down to nearly $1. Then in the middle of the coronavirus outbreak, Nio received a much-needed investment of $1 billion from investors, including state-backed entities.\nNio designs, jointly manufactures, and sells smart and connected premium electric vehicles, attempting to develop next-generation technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving, and artificial intelligence. Joint manufacturing means that it uses a state-owned contract manufacturer to build its cars.\nNio plans to provide customers with comprehensive, convenient, and innovative charging solutions and other user-centric services. It began deliveries of the ES8, a 7-seater high-performance premium electric SUV in China in June 2018, and its variant, the six-seater ES8, in March 2019. Nio officially launched the ES6, a 5-seater high-performance premium electric SUV, in December 2018 and began deliveries in June 2019. It officially launched the EC6, a 5-seater smart premium electric Coupe SUV, in December 2019 with deliveries in 2020.\nNio sold 17,353 EVs in Q4/2020 and 43,728 for the year. It warned a shortage in chips and batteries will force a production slowdown to 7,500 a month in Q2 from 10,000 vehicles a month in February.\nNio currently trades at more than $43 per share, including a big jump recently, for a valuation of approximately $48 billion. It had revenue of $2.3 billion in 2019 for a loss of $3.8 billion.\nSummary\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this should provide exciting new investment opportunities. However, the investment terrain is complex. There are dozens of new start-ups where the public can now invest that were previously exclusively venture capital investment opportunities. Many of these are following different roads to success. There are legacy auto manufacturers that could prosper or get destroyed in this transition. There are some exciting new EV company opportunities in China. And then there is Tesla.\nThis EV roadmap is intended to help investors explore different roads to investment by explaining the basic strategies for these EV companies. These roads can have different opportunities and risks, and the roadmap helps to frame these. Above all, valuation is an overriding risk that is highlighted throughout this article.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>New Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNew Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-19 14:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.\nLast October, I wrote a popular article providing...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车","01211":"比亚迪股份","NKLA":"Nikola Corporation","LI":"理想汽车","GP":"GreenPower Motor Company Inc.","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","GOEV":"Canoo Inc.","WKHS":"Workhorse Group, Inc.","F":"福特汽车","002594":"比亚迪","TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来","FSR":"菲斯克","HYLN":"Hyliion Holdings Corp."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414977-new-electric-vehicle-investment-roadmap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1196402560","content_text":"Summary\n\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this provides exciting investment opportunities.\nLast October, I wrote a popular article providing a roadmap for investing in electric vehicles, but since then, so much has changed: new entrants, new strategies, fluctuating valuations, etc.\nSo, I updated and greatly expanded the previous EV investment roadmap.\nThis update includes a deeper look at valuations for 23 EV companies with revenue projections, when available.\nIt also classifies these EV companies into their primary market categories and summarizes their different strategies.\n\nPhoto by Sven Loeffler/iStock via Getty Images\nMy article Electric Vehicle Investment Roadmap published five months ago, was popular, and some followers have requested an update. Many new EV companies entered the market, most of them through SPACs. Valuations fluctuated wildly, and there has been a great deal of publicity around these companies.\nThis new updated EV investment roadmap is greatly expanded. In addition to updating the strategies and progress of companies previously discussed, I expanded the number of companies covered. This article also groups EV companies into their primary markets, enabling better comparisons and evaluation of market opportunities. In addition, it includes a comparative valuation chart showing every company's market cap with a comparison to projected revenue, where possible. This takes advantage (good or bad) of looking at the long-term revenue forecasts provided in SPAC mergers that public companies can't make.\nIn addition to the EV manufacturers discussed here, there are also EV investment opportunities in charging station companies, battery manufacturers, and battery materials companies. These were covered in the original roadmap and may also be updated in a later article.\nApproximately 2 million EVs were sold in 2019, and although the number declined along with all auto sales in 2020, it is forecasted to increase in 2021 and reach 8-10 million by 2025. Some forecast that EV sales will be greater than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2030, or even earlier. The automobile market appears to be moving toward a historical transformation, and exceptional investment gains can be made by anticipating new emerging industries and investing in the eventual winners of those new industries. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)are obvious examples. Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to create a new emerging industry.\nThere are also significant risks. Hundreds of new EV models are expected to be released in the next three years, which will drive rapid growth in EV sales. However, the expected sales from these new models, as well as the increasing expectations from Tesla, most likely exceed the total projected market. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the companies covered here won't exist five years from now. It reminds me of the internet bubble of the late 1990s when scores of internet-based companies went public with little or no revenue. Almost all of these failed within three years -- however, a couple, including Amazon, went on to enormous success.\nEVs provide a major new investment opportunity with high risks. To succeed, you need to have a clear EV investment roadmap.\nSo, how can you invest in this new emerging market? The EV landscape is complex and investment opportunities are varied. While Tesla is the unquestioned leader in EVs, some consider it overvalued and unlikely to show exceptional returns to new investors. The current U.S. legacy automakers are committed to introducing many new EVs in the next few years, and they have some entrenched advantages with volume manufacturing capabilities, a dealer infrastructure, and loyal customers. There are exciting new EV start-ups in the U.S. that have come public this year, mostly through Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), and there are several interesting publicly traded Chinese EV manufacturers.\nThis new roadmap for EV investment classifies companies into three primary markets segments:\n\nTheConsumer Retailsegment includes EVs sold to consumers individually, such as SUVs, pickup trucks, sedans, etc.\nTheCommercial Deliverysegment includes local delivery EV vans and trucks sold to fleets.\nTheMedium- and Long-Haul Truckingsegment includes heavier Class 4 - Class 8 trucks, as well as special industrial vehicles.\n\nIn addition, it categorizesLegacy ManufacturersandChinese EV Companies. This enables investors to evaluate investment opportunities by considering unique opportunities within each market segment.\nThere is an enormous amount of investment optimism for EVs, and retail investors have been aggressively buying into EV stocks with seemingly no regard for valuation. Then there is the additional challenge of valuing companies with no revenue, especially those coming public through SPACs. So, valuation is an important investment consideration.\nSo let's start by looking at an overview of comparative EV valuations.\nEV Investment Valuation Overview\nThe following chart summarizes valuations for 23 EV companies, including several legacy companies. For SPACs, market cap estimates are computed using the pro forma number of shares at closing, otherwise using the valuation of the SPAC prior to closing drastically underestimates the valuation, which may be misleading to novice investors. Price/Sales ratios (market cap divided by revenue) are used to compare valuations. As a benchmark, current P/S ratios vary. For example, auto and truck companies have a ratio of 2.7X. Software companies have the highest ratios of over 10X.\nIn the chart, companies that currently have revenue show current P/S ratios. Where projections are available, projected P/S ratios are computed. A note of caution, however. Many of the EV companies came public through SPACs and published their projections (which public companies cannot do), and many of these are likely to prove unrealistic.\nAll of the longer-term revenue projections come from the company (C) forecasts with a SPAC. Some of these may turn out to be accurate, not many are most likely unrealistic. Some, like Lucid, Faraday, and Arrival forecast hitting more than $10 billion in revenue in a few years, when it took Tesla more than 10. Things are different now and they might achieve these, but they could also find that it will take longer to complete development, ramp up production, and create enough customer demand. Many companies may also find that there will be significant capital requirements to achieve this type of growth, and shareholders will be diluted.\n\nTesla, the \"gold standard\" in EVs, has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, which many people believe is overvalued. Its market cap is approximately 20X 2020 revenue and 10X estimated 2022 revenue.\nTesla (TSLA)\nIn the U.S., and to a lesser extent in China, Tesla is the dominant EV provider. It has approximately 60% of the U.S. EV market and about 20% of the market in China. I own a Tesla and love it, but an investment in Tesla stock requires getting comfortable with its valuation. Tesla has a market cap of approximately $650 billion, although declining lately, which some consider still overvalued while others see upside potential.\nThe investment opportunity with Tesla is based on the expectation that it will continue to dominate the EV market, or at least maintain significant market share, despite much greater competition from the expected introduction of hundreds of new EV models in the next few years.\nThere is a great deal already published about Tesla, so I'll move on.\nLegacy Automakers\nSome people think that the legacy automakers will simply fade away. Historically, that was the case in some other industries, but it is not going to happen to most automakers. They are not standing still waiting to become obsolete. Most have aggressive strategies to replace ICE vehicles with EVs. GM plans to invest $27 billion and build and launch as many as 30 new EV models by 2025. Ford plans to invest $29 billion in EVs by 2025 and launch as many as 16 EVs in the next two years. Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY)has also committed billions to develop new EVs.\nThe competitive advantage that legacy automakers have in selling their new EVs is their dealer network. Will new EV customers prefer to continue going to their regular auto dealer to buy their new EV?\nAlmost all legacy automakers worldwide are developing and launching EVs including Volkswagen, Peugeot, Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi, Hyundai/Kia. Let's look a little more closely at GM and Ford as the leaders in the U.S.\nGeneral Motors (GM)\nGM has committed to introducing 20 new electric vehicles by 2023, including EVs across Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC, and Buick. It recently announced that it has already sold out the first-year production of its Hummer electric pickup. By mid-decade, it expects to sell a million EVs per year in its two largest markets: North America and China. As a reference point, Tesla reported deliveries of 367,500 vehicles globally in 2019.\nGM has a solid platform strategy for its EVs. It plans on building its EVs using five interchangeable drive units and three different motors from its Ultium Drive System platform. Ultium energy options range from 50 to 200 kWh, which could enable an estimated range of up to 400 miles. Most of its EVs will have 400-volt battery packs and up to 200 kW fast-charging capability while the truck platform will have 800-volt battery packs and 350 kW fast-charging capabilities.\nThe key building blocks of the Ultium battery system are large-scale, high-energy cells. Engineered in partnership with LG Energy Solutions, they use both advanced chemistry and a smart cell design that's optimized for a broad portfolio of EVs. GM engineers and scientists are actively researching and testing new elements in battery chemistry to lower costs and improve charge times. Ultium can contain either vertically- or horizontally-stacked cells to integrate into vehicle design: vertically for trucks, SUVs, and crossovers, or horizontally for cars and performance vehicles. As new chemistry is developed and becomes available, the battery management system could digitally update the modules.\nGM also has other EV opportunities with its BrightDrop commercial EV service and its Cruise subsidiary. BrightDrop will not just sell delivery EVs, it will provide an entire service platform for commercial delivery customers. Its set of electric delivery vehicles starts with the EV600 and includes the BrightDrop EP1, a pod-like electric pallet. SeeGeneral Motors' Aggressive EV/AV Strategies May Payoff Big.\nWith its highest stock price of $61.65, GM's current market cap is approximately $89 billion, increasing primarily because of its progress with EVs. This approximately 3X valuation in 2018, but still only 13% of Tesla.\nFord (F)\nFord is also investing heavily in EVs. It just introduced the Mustang Mach-E, a battery-powered crossover with sports car styling, and plans to introduce an all-electric version of its best-selling F-150 pickup later this year. Also, planned is an electric edition of the full-size Transit van, which has been popular in the commercial delivery market. Ford has confirmed plans to build a luxury Lincoln crossover on a battery-powered platform provided by Rivian. The automaker also plans to introduce two new midsize electric crossovers, one each for the Ford and Lincoln brands by 2023.\nMustang Mach-E. Source: Ford\nFord's market cap is approximately $51 billion, twice its previous market cap, and also increasing.\nConsumer Retail EV Companies\nThe consumer retail market has some unique characteristics for new EV companies. Sales are made individually, not in fleets. This diversifies the risk upon launch because only a sufficient number of customers need to be attracted to the new EV. A wave of popularity can provide terrific momentum.\nHowever, the lack of a dealer network can be an impediment. Selling EVs directly to consumers instead of through dealers is prohibited in most states. By law, auto manufacturers can't compete with franchised dealers. These are laws that go back many decades to protect dealers. This can be a major impediment for new companies without established independent dealer franchises. So, new AV companies. like Tesla, need to sell their vehicles online. Tesla has successfully done this, but it took a lot of work and time. Lack of a dealer network also creates impediments in service.\nIn addition, over the next 4-5 years, autonomous capabilities will be increasingly important to luxury vehicles. This may prove to be a challenge to start-up EV companies because they can't afford to develop this technology.\nLet's look closer at the alternative consumer retail EV investments.\nLucid Motors (CCIV)\nLucid was founded in 2007 under the name Atieva and originally focused on building electric vehicle batteries and powertrains for other vehicle manufacturers. The company rebranded itself as Lucid Motors in October 2016 and shifted its strategy to develop an all-electric, high-performance, luxury vehicle. Shortly after that, it encountered financial difficulties and struggled to get short-term funding. In 2018 it raised more than $1 billion in investment, primarily from Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund, and gave up a majority of the company.\nLucid Motors reached an agreement to become a publicly-traded company through a merger with the SPAC Churchill Capital IV Corp., in one of the largest deals SPAC EV deals. The combined company, in which Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Fund will continue to be the largest shareholder, had a transaction equity value of $11.75 billion (for $10/share). At the same time, it closed a PIPE investment priced at $15 a share, giving it an implied pro forma equity value of $24 billion. Rumors about this deal circulated before the transaction was formally announced, making it one of the most anticipated SPAC deals. The hype and speculation drove up the stock price of Churchill Capital IV Corp. from its opening price of $10 a share to almost $60. I believe that some of this may have been driven by novice SPAC investors who didn't realize that the valuation of CCIV didn't include the eventual valuation of Lucid. The share price dropped more than 30% after the details of the deal were announced. It's also likely that Lucid renegotiated the terms of the merger based on the price jump.\nThe company's first product is the Lucid Air, a well-equipped luxury electric vehicle that features 406 miles of projected range and 480 horsepower with a starting price of $77,400, or $69,900 after the U.S. Federal Tax Credit of $7,500. This new Lucid Air model is positioned as a high-performance, ultra-efficient luxury EV sedan in a line of future vehicles that are expected to include Lucid Air Touring, Grand Touring, and Dream Edition versions.\nThe company plans to begin production and deliveries of the Lucid Air in North America in the second half of 2021. Previously the company aimed to begin deliveries earlier in 2021. It intends to sell the car in Europe in 2022, followed by China in 2023. Lucid vehicles will be produced at its new factory in Casa Grande, Arizona. The company plans to expand the factory in phases in the coming years to have the capacity to produce 365,000 units per year at scale. The initial phase of the $700 million factory construction was completed late last year and will have the capacity to produce 30,000 vehicles a year.\nLucid also apparently has a commitment to build an assembly plant in Saudi Arabia, which was rumored to be a condition of the $1 billion investment from the Saudi public fund. The Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund also provided $600 million in bridge financing and invested in the SPAC deal as well. So, while this assembly plant may be expensive and may not be critical, it will most likely need to happen.\nLucid has ambitious plans to achieve $14 billion in revenue in 2025, and its current stock price at $29.17, which gives it a market cap of more than $46 billion, may already reflect those ambitions. Its market cap is roughly the same as Ford.\nFisker (FSR)\nFisker, which had its origins with Fisker Automotive, is an interesting story that ended in bankruptcy. Henrik Fisker originally co-founded Fisker Automotive in 2007. He was responsible for designing many premium cars such as the Aston Martin. Subsequently, Fisker Automotive had to deal with a Tesla lawsuit against Fisker Automotive alleging it stole Tesla's technology, a controversial $528.7 million conditional loan from the Department of Energy, a recall of its battery produced by A123, and the loss of several hundred vehicles in hurricane Sandy. Henrik Fisker resigned in March 2013 because of disagreements over business strategy and in November 2013, Fisker filed its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case.\nHowever, Henrik Fisker retained the Fisker brand and trademarks, and in 2016 he started another electric vehicle company named Fisker Inc. with the Fisker brand and trademarks. In 2019, Fisker shifted from developing a sports car with a solid-state battery to the Ocean SUV featuring a lithium-ion battery, which it later abandoned for a solid-state battery.\nFisker is positioning itself in a unique segment for those who want the most environmentally friendly EV. While this may be an early growth segment for EVs, it's difficult to estimate its eventual competitive advantage and the size of this environmentally-friendly market segment.\nThe Ocean is a crossover made of recycled metal and plastic with an expected base price of $37,499, and an expected lease of less than $400 a month. Fisker's plan is essentially a lease-only business model that lets customers keep a vehicle for years or return it at any time. It aims to source motors, batteries, and other components from technical partnerships with automakers and will outsource production from existing auto plants. Fisker is currently taking reservations at $250 for the Ocean. It also announced an agreement with Foxconn to jointly develop a vehicle pioneering a new market segment to be sold globally under the Fisker brand commencing in Q4 2023. at the end of 2022. Production will start at Magna Steyr's manufacturing facilities in Europe. At the end of February 2021, it had 12,467 cancellable reservations.\nFisker Ocean. Source: Fisker\nFisker went public using a SPAC (Spartan Energy). The original combination with SPAQ in October 2020 was valued at $2.9 billion with a cash investment of approximately $1 billion. The stock currently trades at approximately $21 per share, after reaching a high of $28.50, from the original price of $10, which is a market cap of $4.6 billion. Fisker projects $3.3 billion in revenue in 2023. It had almost $1 billion in cash at the end of 2020 and expected to use almost half of this in 2021: $250 million on operating expenses and $250 million in capital investments. If the Ocean is delayed into 2023, Fisker risks missing its revenue objective and will potentially need additional cash to complete development and launch.\nFaraday Future (PSAC)\nFaraday Future was originally established in May 2014 by Chinese businessman Jia Yueting. It is headquartered in Los Angeles and has offices in Silicon Valley, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu. Faraday Future also had a turbulent history. In 2016, it struggled financially, and in 2017 some key executives departed over a dispute about financial issues. They later founded Canoo.\nIn December 2018 the company announced layoffs due to a cash crunch and financial troubles. The company's founder Jia Yueting filed for personal bankruptcy in the United States' federal court in Delaware on October 14, 2019. Following Jia's personal bankruptcy, he decided to step down from his role as CEO of Faraday Future in order to assume a new position as the Chief Product and User Officer. He was replaced as CEO by Carsten Breitfeld, the former CEO at rival electric vehicle startup Byton.\nSomehow, Faraday was able to raise $2.3 billion in private funding over 5 rounds from a variety of investors. In early 2018, it received $1.5 billion in funding from an undisclosed investor from Hong Kong.\nFaraday's flagship product offering will be the FF 91, featuring 1,050 HP, 0-60 mph in less than 2.4 seconds, zero gravity seats with the largest 60-degree reclining angles, and a user experience designed to create a mobile, connected, and luxurious living space. The FF 91 is targeted to launch in 2022.\nFF 91. Source: Faraday Future\nIts strategic partners include one of China's top three OEMs and a critical Chinese city, which the company believes will help establish its presence in the Chinese vehicle market.\nFaraday Future plans several cars based on its Variable Platform Architecture. FF 91 is the first production vehicle and flagship model. Pricing will range between $120,000 and upwards of $200,000, which places it against formidable opponents. Faraday Future is already looking forward to expanding its range with a pair of smaller models named FF 81 and FF 71. The FF 81 is planned to be priced at $75,000 to 95,000 with a 2023 release. The FF 71 is planned to be priced at $45,000 to $65,000 with a planned release of 2024.\nThe Primary Manufacturing Facility for FF 91 is in Hanford, CA with contract manufacturing for future models in Gunsan, South Korea.\nFaraday Future is planning high-Level automation with a Level-3 capable system using a redundant safety architecture based on NVIDIA Xavier System-on-a-chip. It will be capable of highway auto-drive and hardware ready for advanced auto-drive. It is targeting full autonomous valet parking & summon in any parking lot or structure. Eventually, it expects full auto-drive, including full 360˚ sensor coverage for advanced auto-drive & auto-park features.\nIn January 2021, Faraday Future announced that the company would go public through a reverse merger with the special purpose acquisition company Property Solutions Acquisition Corp. (PSAC). The combined company will be valued at $3.4 billion. Faraday Future is expected to set up contract manufacturing operations in China through their partnership with Geely. Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn is also expected to serve as an additional strategic partner.\nFaraday Future projects $10.5 billion in revenue in 2024 and $21.5 billion in 2025. Revenue is expected to start in 2022 with the delivery of 2,400 vehicles for $504 million. Most likely these projections could prove to be optimistic. At a current stock price of approximately $12.80, it has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nLordstown Motors (RIDE)\nLordstown Motors based in Lordstown, Ohio, was originally founded in 2018 by Steve Burns, the former CEO of Workhorse Group. The company licensed technology from Workhorse in return for royalties and a 10% ownership. Lordstown is named after the famous GM Lordstown manufacturing plant, which it acquired in November 2019 in an unusual transaction. GM announced that it was closing the plant and was under a great deal of pressure for that decision. So, GM \"sold\" the plant to a company that was renamed Lordstown for an estimated $20 million that it loaned to the acquiring company. Subsequently, the sale was redefined to be part of a $75 million investment by GM, of which $50 million was an in-kind exchange for the plant.\nLordstown went public through the SPAC DiamondPeak Holdings Corp. in 2020. It currently has more than 400 employees.\nIts first product is the Lordstown Endurance, a full-sized EV pickup truck. Lordstown is positioning Endurance for the pickup fleet market segment. The expected price is $52,000+, and it claimed to have more than 100,000 pre-orders by January 2021. However, a recent research article published by a short seller claimed \"Our research has revealed that Lordstown's order book consists of fake or entirely non-binding orders, from customers that generally do not even have fleets of vehicles.\" Lordstown is disputing that article.\nIt believes the fleet pickup market segment is underserved with no current EV-focused competition. It estimates that the full-sized pick-up truck fleet market is 1.2 million vehicles per year in the U.S., but it's more fragmented than other truck fleets. Pickup \"fleets\" tend to be much smaller and local, so there may not be much of a market distinction for a small company buying several EV pickups from a traditional auto dealer. About half of the total U.S. pickup market is classified as fleet sales, meaning more than one.\nEven though Lordstown is targeting the commercial fleet market, it is a similar product to the Ford EV F-150. So I classify it in the consumer EV category. It is a class 2 vehicle. Lordstown also may enter the SUV market in the longer-term.\nThe Endurance will compete against future models from Rivian and Tesla, as well as Ford and GM in ICE pick-ups and their upcoming EV pick-ups. Ford plans on selling its EV F-150 in mid-2022. Initial production of the Endurance is expected in the second half of 2021, so it may have a short market advantage. Nevertheless, it forecasts selling 65,000 vehicles in 2023 and 107,000 in 2024. These estimates could be a large percentage of the EV pick-up market in those years.\nAt the SPAC merger, the implied valuation for Lordstown was $1.6 billion, including a $500 million PIPE and the $75 million by GM. Lordstown's financial projections appear to be aggressive. It projects to start shipping the Endurance in late 2021 with projected revenue in 2022 of $1.7 billion, increasing to $5.8 billion in 2024. Its stock price at approximately $13.60 values the company at a market cap of approximately $2.2 billion. The value of the company depends on the likelihood of achieving its projections.\nA fleet sales strategy makes sense for Lordstown since it would be too expensive to build a retail sales and service capability. However, it's not clear that this will become a distinct competitive advantage. Some small fleets may still prefer to buy their EV pickups from established local dealers with service capabilities.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nCanoo started as Evelozcity in 2017 and rebranded as Canoo in the spring of 2019. Canoo is a Los Angeles-based company that develops electric vehicles. It has over 350 employees. Canoo has designed a modular electric platform purpose-built to deliver maximum vehicle interior space, which is adaptable to support a wide range of vehicle applications for consumers and businesses. Canoo expects to launch its first consumer model in 2022, simply named the Canoo that will be available by subscription, followed shortly after by a multi-purpose delivery vehicle and a sports vehicle, each built off of the same underlying platform. Canoo went public using a SPAC (Hennessy Capital Acquisition) and now trades as GOEV.\nCanoo's all-electric skateboard-like platform is designed to support both consumer retail and commercial vehicle configurations. The EV leverages Canoo's flat skateboard architecture for a high level of usable interior space. Its commercial vehicle program, expected in 2023, addresses a projected $50B+ last-mile delivery market with an EV platform that maximizes cargo volume.\nHyundai Motor Group said it would jointly develop an electric vehicle platform with the company.\nCanoo's platform strategy is interesting. It could be used as an EV platform for custom fleets of delivery vehicles. It has no AV development, but it claims to be \"AV Ready\" which could be useful for AV companies wanting to build custom AV delivery fleets.\nIts all-electric multi-purpose delivery vehicle is expected to be priced starting at approximately $33,000. It is based on Canoo's proprietary electric platform and will be offered in two initial size variants, with others to follow. Limited availability will begin in 2022, with scaled production and launch planned for 2023. Customers can pre-order the multi-purpose delivery vehicle for a refundable deposit of $100 per vehicle\nIt plans to offer two multi-purpose delivery vehicles: the MPDV1 and the larger MPDV2. The first has a 200-foot cargo volume and a range of 130-200 miles. It offers more capacity than today's ICE delivery vehicles at an affordable price with urban mobility enabled by a space-efficient footprint. The vehicle is also designed to fit within many height-restricted areas like parking garages.\nThe MPDV2 has a cargo volume of 450 feet and a range of 90-190 miles. Its roof and step-in height enable individuals to easily walk-in the vehicle and accommodate a standing position while inside.\nThe original SPAC transaction provided approximately $600 million, with a pro forma equity value of approximately $2.4 billion. Like other SPAC mergers, its stock price has fluctuated. It currently trades at about $15.90 per share for a market cap of approximately $3.7 billion. Canoo projects $2.0 billion in revenue in 2025 from about $500 million in engineering services, $1.2 billion from its consumer vehicle subscriptions, and the remainder from its commercial program. Canoo expects revenue of more than $300 million in 2022 after the launch of its lifestyle consumer vehicle.\nSince its first products are aimed at consumers, as is most of its forecasted 2025 revenue, I categorize it primarily as a consumer EV company. However, I think the design of that Canoo vehicle may not attract enough customers. More importantly, its subscription service way of selling its EV to consumers is risky. I think it has more potential in the commercial market, however, a dual strategy (consumer and commercial) is challenging. I like its skateboard platform design and that could prove to be a competitive advantage.\nRivian\nAlthough not yet public, I include Rivian because it has plans for an IPO as soon as Sept 2021, although it could slip into 2022. There are rumors that the company is targeting a market valuation of approximately $50B. Rivian has already raised more than $8 billion to date from Amazon, Ford, T. Rowe Price, and others.\nRivian has developed and vertically integrated a connected electric platform that can be flexibly applied to a range of applications, including the company's adventure products, as well as B2B products such as the Amazon last-mile delivery vans. The company's initial products, the R1T and R1S, provide a combination of performance, off-road capability, and utility. These vehicles will be produced at Rivian's manufacturing plant in Normal, Ill., with customer deliveries expected to begin in summer 2021. The launch of the R1S three-row electric SUV will follow in August.\nAdditional lower-priced models are being planned. The expected R2 series would include at least two smaller electric vehicles to coincide with the smaller platform, then another platform for R3.\nCommercial Delivery EV Companies\nEV truck companies differ based on the type of truck they are developing. The technology and markets are very different, so I separate them into two categories. The first category includes commercial delivery vehicles.\nCompanies making EV delivery vehicles have some major advantages that could make them good investments. First, delivery vehicles typically travel less than 250 miles during a day, so they can be conveniently recharged overnight. Secondly, they are typically sold in large quantities to fleets. This means that building a retail sales infrastructure is not necessary. It only requires a small salesforce. In addition, maintenance can also be provided at the fleet's operational center, so not as many service centers are required.\nThe disadvantage in this market is that there are a relatively small number of customers that buy in large volumes, so if the EV manufacturer can't get enough large customers, they may not be able to stay in business. GM estimates the combined market opportunity for parcel and food delivery, as well as reverse logistics, in the U.S. will be more than $850 billion by 2025.\nThe commercial market is expected to be a major growth area for EVs. Other start-up automakers like Rivian as well as legacy automakers such as Ford, Daimler, and GM have announced plans to enter the segment. GM recently announced its BrightDrop ecosystem for commercial customers that includes an all-new electric delivery van, the EV600 available by the end of 2021, as well as an integrated autonomous pallet and related services.\nThis group of EV companies focuses primarily on commercial delivery. In general, these are in the light-duty trucks category, although it also includes some medium-duty trucks. This generally includes the following commercial truck classes:\n\nClass 1: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 0-6,000 pounds or 0-2,722 kilograms.\nClass 2: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 6,001-10,000 pounds or 2,722-4,536 kilograms.1\nClass 3: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 10,001-14,000 pounds or 4,536-6,350 kilograms.\n\nIt can also include somewhat larger medium-duty EV delivery trucks:\n\nClass 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.\nClass 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.\n\nEV delivery trucks also have an advantage over ICE vehicles because they can have a greater delivery storage space. Smaller buses and transit vehicles are also included in this category.\nLast-mile package delivery is not an immediate-term autonomous vehicle opportunity because it requires a delivery person to be on the truck anyway.\nWorkhorse Group (WKHS)\nWorkhorse has been a public company for ten years. Originally AMP Electric Vehicles, it was established in 2007 as a developmental-stage vehicle electrification company, focusing on conversions. AMP Electric Vehicles went public in 2010 trading on the OTC market under the AMPD symbol. When the economic benefits of conversion became less certain, it pivoted away from passenger vehicles and began to focus on electrifying commercial vehicles. AMP acquired the Workhorse brand and the Workhorse custom chassis assembly plant in Union City. In March of 2013, AMP formally changed its name to Workhorse Group Incorporated.\nThe Company designs and builds a last-mile delivery electric vehicle. The C-Series EVs cover the larger size of commercial delivery vehicles in Classes 3-5. As part of its solutions, it also develops cloud-based, real-time telematics performance monitoring systems. It sells its vehicles to fleet customers directly and through its primary distributor, Ryder Systems. It is currently focused on bringing the C-Series electric delivery truck to market and fulfilling the existing backlog of orders.\nThe C-Series looks like a viable EV replacement for the 350,000 last-mile delivery vehicles sold in the U.S. annually. It recently announced an increased driving range from 100 miles to 160, which should open more market opportunities. It has a viable short-term go-to-market strategy selling fleets to delivery companies. It currently has test vehicles with UPS, DHL, FedEx, Amazon, and Walmart.\nWorkhorse recently lost out on the United States Postal Services Next Generation Delivery Vehicle project, however, it is in the process of challenging this decision. Additionally, its investment in Lordstown also provides an indirect investment opportunity. On November 7, 2019, the Company entered a transaction with Lordstown Motors to grant LMC a perpetual and worldwide license to certain intellectual property relating to its W-15 electric pickup truck platform and related technology in exchange for royalties, equity interest (approximately 10%) in LMC, and other considerations. This was a $320 million asset for Workhorse at the end of 2020.\nWorkhorse received a significant increase in orders in Q4/2020 but built just seven trucks in the fourth quarter due to production systems and supply chain issues. Workhorse plans to continue to take it slow, striving to build three of its composite-body battery-electric trucks a day in March with a plan to reach 10 trucks a day by the end of June. This makes its original 2021 goal of producing 1,800 trucks unlikely. It partnered with Hitachi and Hitachi Capital America (\"HCA\") to improve the Company's manufacturing, operational, and supply chain capabilities as well as to develop a national dealer network to support Workhorse's sales with vehicle financing options for both dealers and customers.\nWorkhorse has a market cap of approximately $1.9 billion. While Workhorse had ongoing revenue, unlike many other new EV companies, its revenue is still insignificant. It had a revenue of $1.4 million in 2020 and $377,000 in 2019. It has a backlog of over 8,000 vehicles but doesn't expect to be able to build many of those in 2021. It raised $270 million in capital over several financings, providing the Company with additional capital to build its backlog. It had cash of $215 million as of March 1, 2021. Because Workhorse is a traditional public company, it hasn't made long-term financial projections like SPAC-based companies.\nElectric Last Mile (FIII)\nElectric Last Mile, based in Troy Michigan, was founded by Jason Luo, former CEO of Ford China before it was acquired by China's Ningbo Joyson Electronic for $920 million in 2016, including James Taylor, former CEO of GM's Hummer brand and former CEO of electric car maker Karma Automotive. Taylor serves as the company's top executive with Luo as the company's chairman.\nThe company plans to launch a small electric delivery van (class 1-2), called the UD-1, in the third quarter of 2021, and then introduce an Urban Utility vehicle (Class 2-3) in 2022. These are expected to compete with Workhorse, Rivian, Canoo, as well as the Ford eTransit and the GMC BV1, none of which is expected to be a Class 1 vehicle.\nThe company says it has 30,000 preorders for its van, representing more than $1 billion in sales. Electric Last Miles vehicles will be based on Sokon's commercial van made in China through a joint venture with Dongfeng Automobile Co Ltd. in order to accelerate development time.\nElectric Last Mile (ELM) is expected to manufacture the vans in a former General Motors Co. Hummer plant in Mishawaka, Ind., that the company is acquiring from China's Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co. Ltd. The plant has the capacity to produce 100,000 vehicles annually with plans to build approximately 4,000 UD-1 vans by the end of 2021. The UD-1 has a starting price of $32,500 and a range of 150 miles. The battery for the vehicle is expected to be supplied by the Chinese battery company CATL.\nELM believes that it has a competitive advantage because its first vehicle, the ELM Urban Delivery, is scheduled to be available in 2021. It is based on a proven, existing platform developed and sold by Sokon Group in the Asian market, where there are 30,000 of these electric delivery vehicles driving 1.5 million miles every day. At the close of the business combination, ELM will be an independent, U.S. company producing electric vehicles in the U.S. with Sokon Group providing access to its know-how, parts supply, and field and service data.\nELM expects that the Urban Delivery vehicle will be the first electric delivery vehicle coming to market in the class 1 category (GVW of 6,000 lbs or less) in the U.S. It will also have 35% more carrying volume compared to similar ICE delivery vehicles, a critical part of the value proposition. It also anticipates that its price and greater carrying volume will allow it to take market share from the class 2 category of vehicles as well.\nIts crossover product portfolio strategy targets commercial delivery vehicles spanning from class 1 to class 3, which represents over 80% of the last mile market.\nELM anticipates $122 million in revenue in 2021, rapidly increasing to $3 billion in 2025. The price of FIII stock increased immediately following its announcement with Electric Last Mile, rising more than 40% to $14.50, but now it has dropped closer to the original deal price to $10.25 for a market cap of approximately $1.5 billion.\nGreenPower Motor Company (GP)\nGreenPower Motor Company Inc. is a Canadian battery-electric bus manufacturer with multiple models of high- and low-floor vehicles, including transit buses, school buses, and shuttles. GreenPower offers commercial vehicles for delivery, public transit, schools, vanpooling, micro-transit, shuttles, and is developing a capability of autonomous operation. It went public on August 28, 2020.\nIn 2014 GreenPower launched its first purpose-built, battery-electric bus, the EV350, 40-foot transit bus. GreenPower received its first order in 2017 for ten EV350s from the City of Porterville, California.\nGreenPower's electric buses are purpose-built and designed to be all-electric, allowing it to put the battery and propulsion system in optimized locations that provide weight and structural advantages. Its primary EV is the EV Star with more than 120 vehicles delivered. It comes in several variations:\n\nEV Star - Up to 19 passengers\nEV Star Plus - Up to 24 passengers\nEV Star ADA - Passenger and curbside lift for ADA\nEV Star Cargo - 5,000 pounds of load\nEV Star Cargo Plus - 570 cubic feet of cargo space.\n\nIts EV school bus seats up to 90 students and has a range of up to 150 miles.\nGreenPower had revenue of $13.5 million in 2020 It has about $21 million in cash. It's an interesting alternative since it is already shipping EVs, has revenue, and also has a lower market cap of less than $1 billion. Since it did a traditional IPO, it hasn't published longer-term financial forecasts.\nArrival (CIIC)\nArrival was founded in 2015 in London to make a variety of commercial electric vehicles. It has approximately 1,200 employees across 11 cities in 8 countries. In November 2020, Arrival and the SPAC CIIG entered into a business combination agreement with an implied valuation of $5.39 billion.\nArrival plans on releasing four commercial EVs over the next few years.\n\nQ4/2021: An electric bus for 8-125 passengers and a range of 240-400km\nQ3/2022: An electric delivery van with a payload of 975-2,000kg and a range of 150-340km\n2022: A larger electric van with a payload of 4,000 kg and a range of 190-400km\n2023: a small vehicle platform with a range of 100-300km.\n\nThis mix provides a nice diversified portfolio of EVs. Arrival claims to have received orders from UPS for 10,000 vans. It plans a unique flexible manufacturing approach using micro-factories with each projected to manufacture 10,000 vans per year. All of its vehicles use a modular skateboard electric platform.\nArrival ambitiously projects $14.1 billion in revenue in 2024. Half of that revenue is expected from delivery vans, 22% from buses, and the rest from the large van and its small vehicle platform. With CIIC's stock price at $24.80 per share, Arrival's current market cap is relatively high at approximately $15.0 billion. Justifying its market cap depends on its ability to release, sell, and produce its four commercial EVs.\nProterra (ACTC)\nProterra is a commercial electric vehicle company with over a decade of production experience. The Company has designed an end-to-end, flexible technology platform that claims to deliver higher performance and a low total cost of ownership to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end customers.\nProterra, Inc., was originally founded in Golden, Colorado, by Dale Hill in 2004. Later the company wanted to take the lead in creating zero-emission, U.S.-based transit buses. In 2010 it moved its manufacturing plant from Golden, Colorado to Greenville, South Carolina. In 2015, Proterra was awarded a $3 million grant from the California Energy Commission to fund the design, development, and construction of the company's battery-electric transit bus manufacturing line in the City of Industry, California. It moved its headquarters from Greenville, South Carolina, to Burlingame, California, in October 2015. Proterra raised more than $600 million in funding.\nIt is going public through the SPAC ArcLight (ACTC) with a pro forma valuation of $1.6 billion. Upon completion of the transaction, Proterra expects to have up to $825 million in cash to fund growth initiatives, including R&D and the expansion of its next-generation battery program.\nProterra has three complementary businesses:\n\nProterra Powered: Delivering battery systems and electrification solutions to commercial vehicle manufacturers\nProterra Transit:Providing an electric transit bus OEMs\nProterra Energy:Offering turnkey charging and energy management solutions.\n\nThe company's battery systems have been proven in more than 16 million service miles driven by its fleet of transit vehicles and validated through partnerships with commercial vehicle OEMs. Proterra has produced and delivered more than 300 megawatt-hours of battery systems, more than 550 heavy-duty electric transit buses, and installed 54 megawatts of charging systems.\nProterra expected $193 million of revenue in 2020, with an estimated $750 million in existing orders and backlog. It projects $2.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with about 1/3 coming from its Transit business, and 2/3 From Powered & Energy. At ACTC's current stock price of $17.85, Proterra has a market cap of about $4.3 billion.\nRivian\nRivian (see earlier description in consumer retail) will also compete in the commercial delivery market. It has been working with Amazon (a major investor) to build large electric delivery vans for Prime. Developed specifically for Amazon, a small fleet of Prime vans is on the road now, testing deliveries to customers and gathering feedback. In late fall, it could grow to a large fleet as Rivian ramps up the volume.\nThe EV range of 150 miles is tailored to Amazon's use cycle to optimize the size, weight, and cost of the commercial vehicle. Rivian has three sizes of batteries, but Amazon is starting with just one of them.\nCanoo (GOEV)\nSee the previous summary under consumer retail EV.\nMedium and Long-Haul Trucking EV Companies\nCompanies developing medium- and long-haul EV trucks face a more difficult challenge with battery range. These trucks haul much more weight than commercial delivery vehicles and because they are designed for long distances, they can't stop every 200-300 miles for recharging.\nFor this reason, many of these companies are using unique hybrid technologies for their trucks. The EV trucks in this category are primarily heavy-duty but also include some medium-duty trucks and specialty vehicles. A couple of the companies focus on retrofitting trucks to be electric.\nMedium-Duty Trucks\nThe medium-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 4, 5, and 6:\n\nClass 4: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 14,001-16,000 pounds or 6,351-7,257 kilograms.\nClass 5: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 16,001-19,500 pounds or 7,258-8,845 kilograms.\nClass 6: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 19,501-26,000 pounds or 8,846-11,793 kilograms.1\n\nHeavy-Duty Trucks\nThe heavy-duty trucks category includes commercial truck classes 7 and 8:\n\nClass 7: This class of trucks has a GVWR of 26,001 to 33,000 pounds or 11,794-14,969 kilograms.\nClass 8: This class of trucks has a GVWR of greater than 33,001 pounds or 14,969 kilograms and includes all tractor-trailers.\n\nThe Tesla Semi is a battery vehicle planned for a range of 300 or 500 miles and a speed of 60 MPH with 80,000 lbs of cargo. Tesla plans to start shipping the Semi later this year when it expects to have sufficient cell volume to meet its needs with the production of its 4680 battery pack.\nNikola(NASDAQ:NKLA)\nNikola has been a very controversial company. Founded in 2015, it originally had two different strategies. Its primary strategy is to lease fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) Class-8 heavy trucks and provide the refueling infrastructure to corporate customers. Its second strategy was to develop the Badger EV truck using GM technology.\nNikola originally merged with a SPAC to go public, at an enterprise value of approximately $3.3 billion. On June 6th, 2020, its market cap jumped to more than $30 billion, then later it dropped because of problems with its originally planned deal with GM.\nNikola originally expected a deal with General Motors that included the production of the Nikola Badger EV pickup truck. The proposed arrangement was that GM would take a $2 billion equity stake in Nikola and in return would engineer and produce the Badger. In November 2020, GM and Nikola scrapped the original arrangement. Now it appears that GM will supply Nikola with only its Hydrotec hydrogen fuel-cell technology to integrate into the EV manufacturer's commercial class 7 and class 8 zero-emission semi-trucks. So, the Badger is probably dead.\nNikola now sees semi-trucks as the company's \"core business\" and fuel cells as an increasingly important segment of the semi-truck market thanks to their efficiency in weight and consumption. It expects to begin testing by the end of 2021.\nIt has received pre-orders from Anheuser-Busch and a few other companies, but it doesn't expect deliveries until 2023. Hydrogen fueling stations are key to its strategy, both providing a source of revenue and necessary fueling infrastructure for the trucks to operate, but they also cost a lot. In its March 2020 investor deck, Nikola said a single station capable of fueling 210 trucks a day would cost $16.6 million. Its initial planned network of 700 stations would cost roughly $11.6 billion.\nNikola was also accused of misrepresentation, and its executive chairman and founder stepped down.\nAt the time of the SPAC merger, it projected an optimistic forecast of more than $3 billion in revenue by 2024, with a net income of $145 million. Most of that revenue was expected to come from its Badger truck, which is no longer in the plans. Yet its market cap is still almost $6 billion.\nHyliion (HYLN)\nHyliion, founded in 2015 in Austin, went public in October 2020 through the SPAC Tortoise Acquisition Corp. (SHLL). In March 2019, automotive parts manufacturer Dana Inc. made an equity investment into Hyliion, and together they are manufacturing and marketing Class 8 EVs to Dana's customers, including Volvo, Navistar, and Peterbilt.\nHyliion's strategy is unique, and a very different strategy from Nikola. Essentially it generates electricity onboard the truck using compressed natural gas (CNG). This should be a benefit for longer-range trucking. Hyliion's Hypertruck concept involves an all-electric drivetrain utilizing Dana's electric motor, inverter, and axle technologies. The truck's batteries are fueled by onboard tanks of CNG. With some 700 CNG stations already operating nationwide, it believes that there no need to build out expensive superchargers or hydrogen infrastructure.\nKuwait-based logistics company, Agility, has already placed an order for 1,000 Hypertrucks with initial deliveries targeted in 2022. Combined with a fully electric drivetrain and a natural gas-powered onboard generator to recharge the battery, the Hypertruck ERX will provide more than 1,000 miles of range.\nHyliion will eventually compete with Nikola (FCEV) and the Tesla battery-based Semi, but it plans to have a longer range and lower operating costs. Its HyperTruck ERX is expected to be available in 2021. It also has a hybrid-electric truck.\nThe combination with SHLL had an estimated market cap of about $1.5 billion, with approximately $530 million going to the company, including a $325 million fully committed PIPE. At approximately $13.50 per share, its current market cap is approximately $2.2 billion, significantly down from its peak. Hyliion projects $2 billion in revenue in 2024, which it claims is only about 2% of the addressable market.\nXL Fleet (XL)\nXL Fleet is a 10-year old company that went public through the SPAC Pivotal. XL is different because it provides fleet electrification modifications for ICE trucks across a wide range of vehicle classes (class 2-5) and types. It has over 200 of the largest commercial and municipal fleets as customers, with more than 3,200 XL systems deployed and over 130 million miles driven by customers to date. XL's customer base includes FedEx, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Verizon, the City of Boston, Seattle Fire Department, Yale University, and Harvard University.\nXL's business model is essentially retrofitting existing trucks to be hybrids and then later expanding into fully electric truck conversions. It claims to be creating a fully integrated platform for this. It remains to be seen if the retrofitting business will continue to grow or will it diminish when more trucks are designed and manufactured with EV capabilities.\nUnlike some other EV companies that have no revenue yet because they are still developing products, XL is more of a small company doing low-volume retrofits. It had $7.2 million in revenue in 2019, $21 million in 2020, and estimates $76 million in 2021, but it forecasts $1.3 billion in revenue in 2024 in its investor presentation. It plans to do this by expanding its product line from hybrid to plug-in hybrid to fully electric across a broader range of trucks. It claims to have a $220 million sales pipeline for the next 12 months.\nShort-seller, Muddy Waters, claimed after talking to former XL Fleet employees, that it believed the company significantly exaggerated its order backlog, that the return on investment for the company's products was likely negative, and that it would not be able to compete with big car makers on electrification. The company thoroughly refuted these claims.\nThe original enterprise valuation was approximately $1.4 billion at a $10 share price for the merger. Its price jumped by about 35% but has since gone back down to $12.40 for a market cap of about $1.8 billion. Although XL Fleet has revenue and other EV companies don't, this may not be an advantage. It appears to be a small company for many years that has gone public at a high valuation with grand plans. The risks are in its ability to make a jump from $76 million in 2021 to $1.3 billion in 2024, as well as the question about retrofitting being replaced by new EV trucks by then.\nXos (NGAC)\nXos Trucks specializes in the field of manufacturing fully electric commercial vehicles. It features a software platform that is designed to accommodate an extensive variety of medium-duty bodies, wheelbase, and range requirements up to 200 miles. It was founded in 2016 and headquartered in North Hollywood, California. It received $20 million of investment in 2020 and now is going public through a merger with the SPAC ExtGen Acquisition Corporation (NGAC) at an estimated proforma value of $1.965 billion.\nIts focus is on medium- and heavy-duty last mile and return-to-base segments (class 5/6, class 6/7, and class 7/8) commercial fleets and specialty vehicles. Some vehicles are currently in production and in regular on-road operations with key fleet customers, and it claimed 6,000 unit orders in backlog.\nIts MD-platform is for classes 5-6 for pickup and delivery. Its HD X-Platform is an adaptable chassis for highway, vocational, and severe work conditions. Its market is for customers with highly predictable routes that allow for batteries designed for a more limited range. A significantly larger frame and smaller battery pack allow for reduced density.\nXos has a bundled all-in-one offering that allows fleets to access all the tools and services they need to go electric with a single point of contact at a fixed monthly expense.\nXos had $3 million in revenue in 2020 and estimates $14 million in 2021. However, it forecasts $5.2 billion in revenue in 2025. At the current stock price of $10.30, its market cap is approximately $2 billion, about the same as its original SPAC transaction.\nLion Electric (NGA)\nLion Electric is a Canadian company founded by Marc Bédard in 2008. Its focus is to be a leader in designing, developing, and manufacturing purpose-built urban electric vehicles; vehicles that are specifically designed as delivery trucks, refuse trucks, bucket trucks, moving trucks, school buses, and shuttle buses. It has over 300 all-electric vehicles on the road today.\nIn November 2020, it announced that it was going public through the SPAC NGA. The transaction had an estimated pro forma enterprise value of $1.5 billion.\nIt plans on seven new truck models and one new school bus, for a total of 15 all-electric vehicles, representing a full line-up from class 5 to class 8 electric trucks and a full line-up of electric school buses. Its vehicles are produced at its existing manufacturing plant, which has the capacity for the production of up to 2,500 vehicles per year. It intends to open a new plant in the U.S. capable of delivering over 20,000 Lion trucks and buses per year by 2022.\nIts all-electric class 6 and class 8 commercial urban trucks combine power, comfort, and modern technology. Custom-built chassis and cabin designed specifically for an all-electric heavy-duty vehicle. The LionC is an all-electric Type C school bus manufactured in North America. The body and chassis were specifically designed to deliver optimal performance. The LionM is an all-electric midi/minibus that meets paratransit and public transportation requirements. Created and designed specifically for the paratransit market, the is spacious and offers unique features that provide enhanced security and accessibility to the end-users.\nLion Electric had $29 million in revenue in 2020 and expects $204 million in 2021. It forecasts revenue to jump to $3.6 billion a few years later in 2024. Its current market cap is approximately $3.6 billion based on its current stock price of $18.33.\nLightning eMotors (GIK)\nLightning eMotors, formerly Lightning Systems, was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Loveland, Colorado. It provides fleet electrification for familiar commercial vehicle platforms by retrofitting them with its electric powertrains. Lightning eMotors produces electric fleet medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including delivery trucks, shuttle buses, passenger vans, ambulances, bucket trucks, chassis-cab models, and city transit buses. It focuses on urban commercial zero-emission vehicles with a full range of class 3 through class 7 battery-electric and fuel-cell electric vehicles.\nLighting eMotors helps commercial fleets achieve their sustainability goals by offering zero-emission battery-electric vans, trucks, and buses based on familiar, proven vehicles from manufacturers such as Ford and GM. It works with customers, to help them identify their unique commercial electric vehicle, charging, and grant support needs.\nThe Lightning products include integrated all-electric powertrains for the Ford Transit 350HD passenger and cargo vans, Ford E-450 shuttle bus and cutaway models, Ford F-59 step/food van, Ford F-550 cargo trucks and buses, Chevrolet 6500XD Low Cab Forward model, and 30-foot, 35-foot, and 40-foot transit buses.\nLightning has 120 vehicles on the road, and 1,500 vehicles already on order from customers. In addition to making vehicles and powertrains, Lightning also provides a full suite of charging solutions for customers.\nThe deal with GIK has an enterprise value of $650 million, although there is also an Earnout of 20.0% of total pro forma shares outstanding to Lightning eMotors shareholders if the stock crosses certain price thresholds.\nAt the current price, of $11.73, GIK has a market cap of approximately $1 billion, a little more than the original transaction valuation. Similar to XL Fleet, Lightning has the risk that retrofitting may only be an interim business opportunity until more EV trucks are produced.\nPublic Chinese EV Companies\nChina will be the biggest EV market opportunity, and EV start-ups may do better there because there isn't as much entrenched competition from domestic auto companies. China is already the largest EV market in the world, with almost a million EVs sold in 2019. Its EV market represents almost half of the global EV sales volume and is much larger than the U.S. market.\nThe Chinese government has ambitions to become a global leader in new energy vehicles. Soon after the coronavirus outbreak subsided within the country, Chinese authorities announced new policies to support the auto and electric vehicle industries.\nThese Chinese companies are traded through American depository shares (ADS) that contain certain risks. There are financial reporting and transparency risks with these companies, and on top of that, the newer companies are being classified as \"emerging growth\" companies that are already exempt from certain transparency requirements set out in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Like the previous EV stock, these stocks have also been very volatile.\nIn addition to legacy auto manufacturers like BYD, there are also three Chinese EV companies that are publicly traded through American depositary shares.\nBYD Co., Ltd. (OTCPK:BYDDY)\nBYD, which means build your dreams, is the automotive subsidiary of the Chinese multinational BYD Co Ltd. It was founded in January 2003, following BYD Company's acquisition of Tsinchuan Automobile Company. The company produces automobiles, buses, electric bicycles, forklifts, rechargeable batteries, and trucks. The current model range of automobiles includes electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and petrol-engined vehicles. Thirteen years ago, on the advice of his famously skeptical lieutenant, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett made a $232 million investment in BYD, a relatively unknown Chinese car company.\nBy parlaying BYD's rechargeable battery technology into a fast-growing carmaking operation, it gained a foothold in the fledgling electric vehicle market, building longer-lasting batteries and cheaper vehicles than American and Japanese manufacturers were managing to do at the time. In BYD, Buffett and Munger believed they had found a company with a shot at one day becoming the largest player in a global automobile market that was inevitably going electric.\nBYD's start to 2021 was strong with 19,871 plug-in electric cars sold in January in China, including hybrid plug-ins. That was a big increase over 2020 but not as much as 2019.\nLI Auto (LI)\nLixiang, formerly known as Chehejia (\"Car and Home\"), was founded in 2015 and went public in the U.S. on July 30th, 2020. It is a Beijing-based electric-vehicle startup with vertically integrated manufacturing. It designs, researches, manufactures, sells, and offers services featuring a few models of electric vehicles.\nThe company's SUVs are hybrids of a sort. They use electric motors (one on the front axle and one on the rear), but those motors are powered by a combination of a 40.5kWh battery packanda 1.2-liter turbocharged engine paired to a 45-liter fuel tank and a 100kW electric generator, which generates power for the battery pack in real-time. The idea is that the car can be driven for about 100 miles on battery power alone, but it has a total range of nearly 500 miles when leveraging the combustion engine generator.\nThe Company's primary product is an SUV under its brand Li ONE. It also sells peripheral products and provides related services, such as charging stalls, vehicle internet connection services, and extended lifetime warranties. Li Auto is looking to sell a variety of SUVs built on its hybrid technology that range from around $21,000 to about $70,000. The company started shipping its first model in late 2019. It's a midsize SUV is well-appointed and has lots of touchscreens and technology. A full-size premium version is planned for release in 2022.\nDeliveries of Li ONEs were 14,464 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing a 67.0% quarter-over-quarter increase and setting a new quarterly record. Deliveries for the full year 2020 reached 32,624 vehicles. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $635 million.\nLI auto went public on July 30th, 2020, raising $1.1 billion at an initial price of $15.50 per share but quickly reached almost $24. It is currently valued at approximately $37 billion at a price of approximately $25.72 per share.\nXPeng (XPEV)\nXiaopeng (XPeng) Motors is a Chinese electric vehicle and technology company that designs and manufactures smart cars. It was founded in 2015 and went public on August 27, 2020, using American depository shares, raising about $1 billion. To date, it has raised about $2.6 billion.\nXPeng aims its EVs at technology-savvy middle-class Chinese consumers, with prices ranging from $22,000 to $45,000 after government subsidies. In some ways, it is a Tesla knock-off at a much lower price. XPeng started production of the G3 in November 2018, and as of July 31, 2020, delivered 18,741. It started production of the P7 and began delivery in May 2020, and as of July 31, 2020, it had delivered 1,966 EVs. The P7 has a range of more than 400 miles. It plans to launch a third Smart EV, a sedan, in 2021. The G3 was among the top-three best-selling electric SUVs in China in 2019.\nXPeng is interesting because it has a platform strategy and is moving aggressively into autonomous driving. It uses a platform strategy to expand product offerings by launching one Smart EV model each year to broaden the addressable market. It builds new models on two highly flexible Smart EV platforms, called David and Edward, respectively. The David platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,600 millimeters to 2,800 millimeters, and the Edward platform has been designed for vehicles with wheelbases ranging from 2,800 millimeters to 3,100 millimeters. It also adopted a platform approach for software systems.\nXPeng claims to be developing an autonomous driving capability for its EVs. The P7 is the first production vehicle to feature the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Xavier system-on-a-chip (SoC) autonomous driving platform. The company's Smart Electric Platform Architecture (SEPA) runs on 2 chips - NVIDIA for the XPILOT and Qualcomm's Snapdragon™ 820A for intelligent services and infotainment, including cameras inside and outside, radars, HD-map, and ultrasonic sensors. Like Tesla, it claims it can create sufficiently-autonomous driving without lidar.\nTo enhance brand recognition and allow more people to experience its Smart EVs, it deployed a small number of Smart EVs in a ride-hailing service in Guangzhou on a trial basis, but it has no current plan to scale up a ride-hailing service.\nXpeng sees first-quarter 2021 deliveries rising 450% year-over-year to 12,500 vehicles. Revenues are expected to increase 533% from a year ago. The company didn't provide bottom-line estimates for the quarter, but will likely post another net loss as it ramps up manufacturing, invests in R&D, and builds out a new manufacturing plant set to open in 2022.\nXpeng reported selling 12,964 vehicles in Q4 2020, up 303% from a year ago. It delivered a total of 27,041 vehicles in 2020, up 112%. It makes the P7 sedan, a rival to the made-in-China Tesla Model 3, and the small G3 SUV.\nThe stock opened on August 27, 2020 at a price of $15 and a valuation of $11 billion, but its stock jumped more than 40% shortly after. Its current valuation is about $35 billion at a stock price of approximately $36.13 per share. It had about $300 million in revenue in 2019 with a loss of about $500 million.\nNio (NIO)\nUnlike previous companies, Nio has been a public company for some time. It originally went public in the U.S. back in September of 2018, selling IPO shares at $6.26 and raising $1 billion.\nNio's IPO was far from smooth. After going public at $6.26 per share, it traded down to nearly $1. Then in the middle of the coronavirus outbreak, Nio received a much-needed investment of $1 billion from investors, including state-backed entities.\nNio designs, jointly manufactures, and sells smart and connected premium electric vehicles, attempting to develop next-generation technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving, and artificial intelligence. Joint manufacturing means that it uses a state-owned contract manufacturer to build its cars.\nNio plans to provide customers with comprehensive, convenient, and innovative charging solutions and other user-centric services. It began deliveries of the ES8, a 7-seater high-performance premium electric SUV in China in June 2018, and its variant, the six-seater ES8, in March 2019. Nio officially launched the ES6, a 5-seater high-performance premium electric SUV, in December 2018 and began deliveries in June 2019. It officially launched the EC6, a 5-seater smart premium electric Coupe SUV, in December 2019 with deliveries in 2020.\nNio sold 17,353 EVs in Q4/2020 and 43,728 for the year. It warned a shortage in chips and batteries will force a production slowdown to 7,500 a month in Q2 from 10,000 vehicles a month in February.\nNio currently trades at more than $43 per share, including a big jump recently, for a valuation of approximately $48 billion. It had revenue of $2.3 billion in 2019 for a loss of $3.8 billion.\nSummary\nIt's almost a foregone conclusion that EVs will replace ICE vehicles in the next decade, and this should provide exciting new investment opportunities. However, the investment terrain is complex. There are dozens of new start-ups where the public can now invest that were previously exclusively venture capital investment opportunities. Many of these are following different roads to success. There are legacy auto manufacturers that could prosper or get destroyed in this transition. There are some exciting new EV company opportunities in China. And then there is Tesla.\nThis EV roadmap is intended to help investors explore different roads to investment by explaining the basic strategies for these EV companies. These roads can have different opportunities and risks, and the roadmap helps to frame these. Above all, valuation is an overriding risk that is highlighted throughout this article.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3858550,"gmtCreate":1616461300966,"gmtModify":1680781348970,"authorId":3574051403520128,"author":{"id":3574051403520128,"idStr":"3574051403520128","authorId":3574051403520128,"name":"Kah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8152bf26b25a543a305f21dbe90acf14","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":353969762,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Pls like and comment","text":"Pls like and comment","html":"Pls like and comment"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":178,"commentSize":57,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":47,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}