Why Facebook Can More Than Triple From Here

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Why Facebook Can More Than Triple From Here

seekingalpha2021-08-14

Summary Facebook is undervalued under current market conditions. Our projections are based on fundamental factors. Facebook is a top-quality tech stock. Urupong/iStock via Getty Images Note: This ...

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Sphere
·2021-08-16
Overvalued
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- Sphere:
  ??
  2021-08-16
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Jazzc85
·2021-08-15
Really???
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2
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- Aoyjai:
  Continue to print money
  2021-08-15
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rachellll
·2021-08-15
a
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- rachellll:
  a
  2021-08-15
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chewks
·2021-08-15
Good
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3
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- Kristy12345:
  ?
  2021-08-15
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Tpoh
·2021-08-15
Good article
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- CL_Wong:
  Yes, good article
  2021-08-15
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Deonc
·2021-08-15
good
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sjcy
·2021-08-15
Seeing how alot of other apps are asking if we want to sign in via Facebook, pretty sure FB is here to stay. Still think it's good long term holding but let's see.
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- pekss:
  Agree, though a lot of regulators are going after the big techs too
  2021-08-15
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- Lynny:
  With Instagram monetising aggressively with Adsand marketplace, and increasing Whatsapp users, FB stock will continue to increase in value
  2021-08-15
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Sriwonc
·2021-08-15
Like pls
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2
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Kczx
·2021-08-15
Let’s go to the moon
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3
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Rickyt089
·2021-08-15
Like pls
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GrowGrowGrow
·2021-08-15
Grow Grow Grow
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- Weijunn:
  ?
  2021-08-15
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- nickname168:
  alright
  2021-08-15
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YangXH
·2021-08-15
$Facebook(FB)$like
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- GrowGrowGrow:
  like
  2021-08-15
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koolgal
·2021-08-15
I like Facebook and believe it has a long runway to future growth. What about you? ?
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- koolgal:
  Glad you agree. Thanks. ??
  2021-08-15
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- koolgal:
  Well said. ??
  2021-08-15
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- KamenR:
  Same. No matter the hate they get from the media, many small businesses are highly dependant on them for marketing.
  2021-08-15
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Spellgirl
·2021-08-15
Nice
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kidpongs
·2021-08-15
Rly?
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kidpongs
·2021-08-15
Nani
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zingerbells
·2021-08-14
Ok
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kerukel88
·2021-08-14
Ok
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- kerukel88:
  Ok
  2021-08-14
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Samwich
·2021-08-14
Ok
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Sam87
·2021-08-14
[財迷] good
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- Teslawonder:
  gd
  2021-08-20
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- Sam87:
  Good
  2021-08-14
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We highlighted some major factors that separate FacebookInc. (FB) from the rest and suggest you check it out. Although we performed a relative valuation for all six companies in that article, we wanted to write a follow-up to calculate the intrinsic value of Facebook. Facebook is currently undervalued using projections that are based purely on fundamental factors.\nValuation\nTo value Facebook, we will first need to determine three things:\n\nReinvestment rate\nRevenue-to-capital ratio\nIncremental revenue to capital\n\nFor Facebook, the reinvestment rate will be the sum of research and development, marketing, capital expenditures, and change in net working capital, subtracted by depreciation and amortization. We subtract D&A because it is considered maintenance capex which doesn't contribute to growth.\nNext, we will calculate both the revenue-to-capital ratio and the incremental revenue-to-capital ratio. The former measures how much revenue the company can generate for each dollar invested. The latter measures the same thing except it focuses on the new revenue generated by new investments.\nSource: Author\nAs you can see, Facebook's revenue to capital has been trending upwards. This is because newer investments have been performing better than older ones. For our calculations, we will use the most recent numbers for the next twelve-month calculations. For calculations that are beyond, we use the 5-year averages of both which are 67.99% (revenue to capital) and 80.18% (incremental revenue to capital).\nOur projections estimate revenue growth rate by multiplying reinvestment rate as a percentage of revenue by the revenue-to-capital ratio. The results are as follows:\n\nSource: Author\nForecast Assumptions For Above Image\n\nGross profit leverage averaged 0.93 in the past several years.\nFor operating leverage, we took the median number from the past 5 years (1.18) and used it for 2022. We reduced this ratio over time.\nSet all the margins under \"supporting calculations\" to their historical averages.\n\nPlugging these numbers into a discounted cash flow, we get the following result:\nSource: Author\nSince Facebook has no interest-bearing debt, we set the cost and weight of debt to zero. As you can see, with a risk-free rate of 1.37%, beta of 1.05 and an equity risk premium of 4.72%, the current discount rate is 6.33%. As a result, Facebook's valuation is approximately $1,205 per share under current conditions.\nSince discount rates are always changing, we made the following chart to demonstrate how the valuation changes under different conditions.\n\nTherefore, as an investor, it's up to you to decide which discount rate to use based on your methodology. We prefer using dynamic discount rates that change with the market. Using this approach explains why stocks continue to rise even though many believe we are in bubble territory. If market conditions can justify higher valuations, then that's where the prices will go. Nonetheless, there is a solid margin of safety with Facebook being undervalued even after substantial increases in discount rates.\nRisks\nThere are 2 main risks we see with Facebook. The first is based on discount rates which we touched on in our previous section. A dramatic increase in the risk-free rate or equity risk premium or both would lower the company's intrinsic value. Therefore, investors need to monitor those metrics carefully should they choose to use a dynamic discount rate as we do.\nThe second risk might be some form of government intervention that forces the company to divest its stake in Instagram or What's App. However, we believe that would actually benefit shareholders because it would allow the market to fully value those entities on their own. As a result, we believe such a scenario would unlock the hidden value of Instagram or What's App.\nFinal Thoughts\nFacebook is without a doubt a market leader that is currently undervalued. Although we don't expect our projections to be precise, we do consider them to be reasonable since they are based on fundamental factors. In addition, there is enough of a margin of safety between the intrinsic value and the current price to allow for modest amounts of variations in the actual outcomes. Therefore, we remain bullish on Facebook.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":830877660,"gmtCreate":1629067789250,"gmtModify":1676529917639,"author":{"id":"3573432013960035","authorId":"3573432013960035","name":"Sphere","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3573432013960035","idStr":"3573432013960035"},"htmlText":"Overvalued&nbsp;","listText":"Overvalued&nbsp;","text":"Overvalued","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/830877660","repostId":1196685545,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5537233,"gmtCreate":1629067801560,"gmtModify":1635150860973,"authorId":3573432013960035,"author":{"id":3573432013960035,"idStr":"3573432013960035","authorId":3573432013960035,"name":"Sphere","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":830877660,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"??","text":"??","html":"??"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":830355743,"gmtCreate":1629017471883,"gmtModify":1676529911675,"author":{"id":"3581583688503326","authorId":"3581583688503326","name":"Jazzc85","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b4945b6e44a944760efcbe15223e98d5","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3581583688503326","idStr":"3581583688503326"},"htmlText":"Really???","listText":"Really???","text":"Really???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/830355743","repostId":1196685545,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5534390,"gmtCreate":1629018133425,"gmtModify":1635151097735,"authorId":3578371382142637,"author":{"id":3578371382142637,"idStr":"3578371382142637","authorId":3578371382142637,"name":"Aoyjai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcf5c34602d2433f3133ca6c6fece6a","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":830355743,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Continue to print money","text":"Continue to print money","html":"Continue to print money"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":830362943,"gmtCreate":1629013617582,"gmtModify":1676529911118,"author":{"id":"3586435391928672","authorId":"3586435391928672","name":"rachellll","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7855a29f75174783f11b5102e8a7c8ba","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3586435391928672","idStr":"3586435391928672"},"htmlText":"a","listText":"a","text":"a","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/830362943","repostId":1196685545,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5534045,"gmtCreate":1629013622678,"gmtModify":1663232404143,"authorId":3586435391928672,"author":{"id":3586435391928672,"idStr":"3586435391928672","authorId":3586435391928672,"name":"rachellll","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7855a29f75174783f11b5102e8a7c8ba","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":830362943,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"a","text":"a","html":"a"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":830079147,"gmtCreate":1628996391289,"gmtModify":1676529906683,"author":{"id":"4091689530340460","authorId":"4091689530340460","name":"chewks","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3cd91be19ae88f7b2f6253d4dc5d028","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4091689530340460","idStr":"4091689530340460"},"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/830079147","repostId":1196685545,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5532038,"gmtCreate":1628997447461,"gmtModify":1663232395535,"authorId":3582339280294000,"author":{"id":3582339280294000,"idStr":"3582339280294000","authorId":3582339280294000,"name":"Kristy12345","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4f796ebb625542ae8407329bf083f6d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":830079147,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"?","text":"?","html":"?"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":830049614,"gmtCreate":1628995771438,"gmtModify":1676529906424,"author":{"id":"3575251434665389","authorId":"3575251434665389","name":"Tpoh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3575251434665389","idStr":"3575251434665389"},"htmlText":"Good article","listText":"Good article","text":"Good article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/830049614","repostId":1196685545,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5535204,"gmtCreate":1629029153127,"gmtModify":1635151035760,"authorId":3586994859303940,"author":{"id":3586994859303940,"idStr":"3586994859303940","authorId":3586994859303940,"name":"CL_Wong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a974b1a26fc593e3134cf7e90be9c166","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-1","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Elite Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 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"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":830021932,"gmtCreate":1628994677526,"gmtModify":1676529905971,"author":{"id":"3569316529855154","authorId":"3569316529855154","name":"Deonc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9aa45dd2eb58357f6477dcfb99d1415","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3569316529855154","idStr":"3569316529855154"},"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/830021932","repostId":1196685545,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":897783860,"gmtCreate":1628986981850,"gmtModify":1676529902740,"author":{"id":"3574851563436207","authorId":"3574851563436207","name":"sjcy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/487e7915540a102784b62ddbbb7208f1","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3574851563436207","idStr":"3574851563436207"},"htmlText":"Seeing how alot of other apps are asking if we want to sign in via Facebook, pretty sure FB is here to stay. Still think it's good long term holding but let's see.&nbsp;","listText":"Seeing how alot of other apps are asking if we want to sign in via Facebook, pretty sure FB is here to stay. Still think it's good long term holding but let's see.&nbsp;","text":"Seeing how alot of other apps are asking if we want to sign in via Facebook, pretty sure FB is here to stay. Still think it's good long term holding but let's see.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/897783860","repostId":1196685545,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5530369,"gmtCreate":1628989183317,"gmtModify":1663232386544,"authorId":3581636635898281,"author":{"id":3581636635898281,"idStr":"3581636635898281","authorId":3581636635898281,"name":"pekss","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dfef98c44b3810cffef7f3eb78524ba","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8-1","templateUuid":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8","name":"Star Contributor","description":"Have published 3 or more picked posts, and have published at least one picked post and participated in comments within 30 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