When Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)

Bloomberg2021-08-02

The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their customers. Want to know where the S&P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? ...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

278

Report

Comment（37）

KTtrader
·2021-08-03
Let’s wait and see
Reply
Like
Report
dan1
·2021-08-03
nice
Reply
2
Report
dan1
·2021-08-03
[Smile] [Smile] [Smile] [Smile] [Smile]
Reply
2
Report
TimXT
·2021-08-03
Good article. We need do our homework to check whether invest or not
Reply
5
Report
Fold Replies
- diggydog:
  Agreed
  2021-08-03
  Reply
  Report
STKG
·2021-08-03
Lots of factors cause the drop not only profit margin. Many strategies you can do.
Reply
4
Report
MightyPooP
·2021-08-03
Dollar cost average and do your research on fundamentals before committing.
Reply
8
Report
Fold Replies
- STKG:
  agree
  2021-08-03
  Reply
  Report
PYEO
·2021-08-03
Good article.
Reply
2
Report
Fold Replies
- PYEO:
  Thank you.
  2021-08-03
  Reply
  Report
Et1502
·2021-08-03
Margin is only one of the many variables to grow a company.
Reply
4
Report
Fold Replies
- MightyPooP:
  good
  2021-08-03
  Reply
  Report
- STKG:
  agree
  2021-08-03
  Reply
  Report
Cassjo
·2021-08-03
Ok thanks
Reply
1
Report
兔气扬眉
·2021-08-03
Like n comment
Reply
2
Report
Fold Replies
- 兔气扬眉:
  Ok
  2021-08-04
  Reply
  Report
- JeremyKok:
  hi. please like and comment back. thank you.
  2021-08-03
  Reply
  Report
seojun
·2021-08-03
Oh noooo
Reply
1
Report
replaygoh
·2021-08-03
noted
Reply
1
Report
KYHBKO
·2021-08-03
long term strategy like dollar cost averaging helps in such cases. if we hold long enough (for stocks with good fundamentals), time will do her compounding magic. in such cases, time in the market is more important than timing the market. happy trading all
Reply
4
Report
Fold Replies
- STKG:
  agree
  2021-08-03
  Reply
  Report
Unknown934
·2021-08-03
Help to like
Reply
2
Report
Fold Replies
- Unknown934:
  Comment
  2021-08-03
  Reply
  Report
Kelvinphan
·2021-08-03
Pls like
Reply
3
Report
Fold Replies
- Unknown934:
  Help me too
  2021-08-03
  Reply
  Report
psn
·2021-08-03
[笑哭]
Reply
5
Report
Limyeesiang
·2021-08-03
Hi
Reply
3
Report
RoAd
·2021-08-03
Like
Reply
2
Report
Cedric77
·2021-08-02
Good write up but it difficult to digest!Probably,instead trying to predict from past statistics or AI we shld focus on the fundamental.Gd stock for Long is always a gd investment. Eg. Square,Nividia.
Reply
10
Report
Fold Replies
- STKG:
  agree
  2021-08-03
  Reply
  Report
- seanisright:
  true
  2021-08-03
  Reply
  Report
Kelvin_Qiu
·2021-08-02
As long as you still have bullets to hold out the drop, you get to buy cheap and average down your price, will benfit long term. Different game play if you want to speculate to hit & run the short term.Like pls thx[開心]
Reply
11
Report
Fold Replies
- Ky75:
  Yep. can’t time the market so time in the market is more precIous. just make sure you have a long runway and DCA would work.
  2021-08-03
  Reply
  Report
- Des79:
  This strategy work fine for me. It still a long way for me. Like pls if u agreed.
  2021-08-03
  Reply
  Report
- pop3:
  Totally agree with this theory, am a believer of long term strategy that has solid fundementals because slow and steady wins the race
  2021-08-03
  Reply
  Report
View more 1 comments

Most Discussed

7x24

All

Terms and Conditions·Privacy Policy

Company: TTMF Limited. Tech supported by Xiangshang Yixin.

Email：uservice@ttm.financial

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196763976?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2021-08-02 19:24","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"1196763976","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"When Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)","media":"Bloomberg","content":"<div>\n<p>The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their customers.\n\nWant to know where the S&P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1584095487587","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-02 19:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their customers.\n\nWant to know where the S&P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".SPX","symbol_name":"S&P 500 Index","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia","article_id":"1196763976","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196763976","pubTimestamp":1627903466,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1584095487587","name":"Bloomberg"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"bloomberg.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"translate_title":"股票什么时候会下跌？观察利润率（并感到紧张）","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9},"content_text":"The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their customers.\n\nWant to know where the S&P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? Take a look at profit margins.\nOperating margin forecasts are a strong leading indicator of stock prices. A decline in such outlooks preceded routs in the S&P 500 in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2020. What’s concerning now is that analysts have stopped raising their forecasts, and if they begin to lower them, it's likely to lead to a dip in the broader market again. And it’s not like there’s a lot of room for further improvement in margins, defined as earnings before interest and taxes divided by sales. The consensus among analysts is that they will expand to 16.7% over the next 12 months, topping the previous record of 16.4% set in 2018.\nThe relationship between S&P 500 profitability and inflation indicators is murky at best, but recent spikes in the producer price index and a smaller increase in the consumer price index is enough to raise a caution flag for equity margin expansion potential for the next few quarters. At its peak in April, the PPI rose 9.5% from a year earlier, almost 3 standard deviations above its average over the past 30 years. (It rose 9.4% in June.) From 2010 to 2019, the median estimate of where operating margins would be 12 months into the future for S&P 500 members were negatively correlated to changes in PPI. The current coefficient of minus 0.22 suggests gains in corporate profitability are likely to stall or even fall as producer prices continue to rise.\nWatch Those Margins\nPast dips in forecasted profit margins have lined up with pull-backs in equities.\nThe difference between the PPI and CPI suggests companies are unable to pass cost increases on to consumers. The spread between the two fell to a record low of minus 5.3 percentage points in April, and is still strongly inverted at minus 4.1 percentage points. Over the last 30 years, the operating margin for the S&P 500 narrowed 6.5 percentage points on average one year after the gap fell below minus 2 percentage points. Not only that, but in the year after the spread breached minus 2 percentage points, the S&P fell 2.5% on average.\nAnalysts are getting nervous. They have cut their margin estimates for a quarter of S&P 500 members in the last three months. Their stocks were down 0.63%, compared with a gain of 2.20% for the index and a 3.30% increase for companies with rising margin forecasts. Slicing the index into quintiles based on changes in operating margin shows that companies with the largest declines had a median stock-price decline of 0.5%, versus a gain of 3.9% for those with the greatest expansion in consensus estimates.\nIndustries with the most negative margin pressures are likely to be those that investors historically consider “defensive,” such as health care, utilities and consumer staples. Large companies involved in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences, household and personal products, and utilities have historically fared worst when producer prices outrun consumer prices, and these are where margin forecasts gave dropped the most over the last three months. Margins forecasts continue to rise for the more cyclically-oriented segments of the equity market, with media, consumer services, transportation and oil and gas industries having the largest gains.\nWinners and Losers\nCyclically-oriented sectors are relatively immune from broad profit margin compression.\nThough consensus expectations imply smooth sailing, companies are set up for a more challenging margin outlook as revenue growth rates likely fade, but inflation pressures remain relatively high given persistent uncertainty in the supply chain. Against this backdrop, currently selective industry margin weaknesses may start to spread to more industries, resulting in degradation of margin forecasts for the index at large. Given these estimates are a strong strong leading indicator of stock-price direction, margin trends may be a critical risk to the equity market in the months ahead.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":807060913,"gmtCreate":1627989276432,"gmtModify":1703499172532,"author":{"id":"3582151259867940","authorId":"3582151259867940","name":"KTtrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b53000e916c2327a5f2018e8dd96508","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582151259867940","authorIdStr":"3582151259867940"},"htmlText":"Let’s wait and see&nbsp;","listText":"Let’s wait and see&nbsp;","text":"Let’s wait and see","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/807060913","repostId":1196763976,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196763976","pubTimestamp":1627903466,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196763976?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-02 19:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"When Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196763976","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their","content":"<blockquote>\n The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost&nbsp;increases to their customers.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Want to know where the S&amp;P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? Take a look at profit margins.</p>\n<p>Operating margin forecasts are a strong leading indicator of stock prices. A decline in such outlooks preceded routs in the S&amp;P 500 in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2020. What’s concerning now is that analysts have stopped raising their forecasts, and if they begin to lower them, it's likely to lead to a dip in the broader market again. And it’s not like there’s a lot of room for further improvement in margins, defined as earnings before interest and taxes divided by sales. The consensus among analysts is that they will expand to 16.7% over the next 12 months, topping the previous record of 16.4% set in 2018.</p>\n<p>The relationship between S&amp;P 500 profitability and inflation indicators is murky at best, but recent spikes in the producer price index and a smaller increase in the consumer price index is enough to raise a caution flag for equity margin expansion potential for the next few quarters. At its peak in April, the PPI rose 9.5% from a year earlier, almost 3 standard deviations above its average over the past 30 years. (It rose 9.4% in June.) From 2010 to 2019, the median estimate of where operating margins would be 12 months into the future for S&amp;P 500 members were negatively correlated to changes in PPI. The current coefficient of minus 0.22 suggests gains in corporate profitability are likely to stall or even fall as producer prices continue to rise.</p>\n<p><b>Watch Those Margins</b></p>\n<p>Past dips in forecasted profit margins have lined up with pull-backs in equities.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dbda2c0b9394d518fdc8af7d693c8f3\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The difference between the PPI and CPI suggests companies are unable to pass cost increases on to consumers. The spread between the two fell to a record low of minus 5.3 percentage points in April, and is still strongly inverted at minus 4.1 percentage points. Over the last 30 years, the operating margin for the S&amp;P 500 narrowed 6.5 percentage points on average one year after the gap fell below minus 2 percentage points. Not only that, but in the year after the spread breached minus 2 percentage points, the S&amp;P fell 2.5% on average.</p>\n<p>Analysts are getting nervous. They have cut their margin estimates for a quarter of S&amp;P 500 members in the last three months. Their stocks were down 0.63%, compared with a gain of 2.20% for the index and a 3.30% increase for companies with rising margin forecasts. Slicing the index into quintiles based on changes in operating margin shows that companies with the largest declines had a median stock-price decline of 0.5%, versus a gain of 3.9% for those with the greatest expansion in consensus estimates.</p>\n<p>Industries with the most negative margin pressures are likely to be those that investors historically consider “defensive,” such as health care, utilities and consumer staples. Large companies involved in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences, household and personal products, and utilities have historically fared worst when producer prices outrun consumer prices, and these are where margin forecasts gave dropped the most over the last three months. Margins forecasts continue to rise for the more cyclically-oriented segments of the equity market, with media, consumer services, transportation and oil and gas industries having the largest gains.</p>\n<p><b>Winners and Losers</b></p>\n<p>Cyclically-oriented sectors are relatively immune from broad profit margin compression.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884366efc825eccec2878fcd4b3f0912\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"533\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Though consensus expectations imply smooth sailing, companies are set up for a more challenging margin outlook as revenue growth rates likely fade, but inflation pressures remain relatively high given persistent uncertainty in the supply chain. Against this backdrop, currently selective industry margin weaknesses may start to spread to more industries, resulting in degradation of margin forecasts for the index at large. Given these estimates are a strong strong leading indicator of stock-price direction, margin trends may be a critical risk to the equity market in the months ahead.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-02 19:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their customers.\n\nWant to know where the S&P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196763976","content_text":"The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their customers.\n\nWant to know where the S&P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? Take a look at profit margins.\nOperating margin forecasts are a strong leading indicator of stock prices. A decline in such outlooks preceded routs in the S&P 500 in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2020. What’s concerning now is that analysts have stopped raising their forecasts, and if they begin to lower them, it's likely to lead to a dip in the broader market again. And it’s not like there’s a lot of room for further improvement in margins, defined as earnings before interest and taxes divided by sales. The consensus among analysts is that they will expand to 16.7% over the next 12 months, topping the previous record of 16.4% set in 2018.\nThe relationship between S&P 500 profitability and inflation indicators is murky at best, but recent spikes in the producer price index and a smaller increase in the consumer price index is enough to raise a caution flag for equity margin expansion potential for the next few quarters. At its peak in April, the PPI rose 9.5% from a year earlier, almost 3 standard deviations above its average over the past 30 years. (It rose 9.4% in June.) From 2010 to 2019, the median estimate of where operating margins would be 12 months into the future for S&P 500 members were negatively correlated to changes in PPI. The current coefficient of minus 0.22 suggests gains in corporate profitability are likely to stall or even fall as producer prices continue to rise.\nWatch Those Margins\nPast dips in forecasted profit margins have lined up with pull-backs in equities.\nThe difference between the PPI and CPI suggests companies are unable to pass cost increases on to consumers. The spread between the two fell to a record low of minus 5.3 percentage points in April, and is still strongly inverted at minus 4.1 percentage points. Over the last 30 years, the operating margin for the S&P 500 narrowed 6.5 percentage points on average one year after the gap fell below minus 2 percentage points. Not only that, but in the year after the spread breached minus 2 percentage points, the S&P fell 2.5% on average.\nAnalysts are getting nervous. They have cut their margin estimates for a quarter of S&P 500 members in the last three months. Their stocks were down 0.63%, compared with a gain of 2.20% for the index and a 3.30% increase for companies with rising margin forecasts. Slicing the index into quintiles based on changes in operating margin shows that companies with the largest declines had a median stock-price decline of 0.5%, versus a gain of 3.9% for those with the greatest expansion in consensus estimates.\nIndustries with the most negative margin pressures are likely to be those that investors historically consider “defensive,” such as health care, utilities and consumer staples. Large companies involved in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences, household and personal products, and utilities have historically fared worst when producer prices outrun consumer prices, and these are where margin forecasts gave dropped the most over the last three months. Margins forecasts continue to rise for the more cyclically-oriented segments of the equity market, with media, consumer services, transportation and oil and gas industries having the largest gains.\nWinners and Losers\nCyclically-oriented sectors are relatively immune from broad profit margin compression.\nThough consensus expectations imply smooth sailing, companies are set up for a more challenging margin outlook as revenue growth rates likely fade, but inflation pressures remain relatively high given persistent uncertainty in the supply chain. Against this backdrop, currently selective industry margin weaknesses may start to spread to more industries, resulting in degradation of margin forecasts for the index at large. Given these estimates are a strong strong leading indicator of stock-price direction, margin trends may be a critical risk to the equity market in the months ahead.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":804856314,"gmtCreate":1627950843538,"gmtModify":1703498359627,"author":{"id":"4089420254580640","authorId":"4089420254580640","name":"dan1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/004cdbc49d81506a848acc7eb738332f","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4089420254580640","authorIdStr":"4089420254580640"},"htmlText":"&nbsp;nice","listText":"&nbsp;nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/804856314","repostId":1196763976,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196763976","pubTimestamp":1627903466,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196763976?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-02 19:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"When Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196763976","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their","content":"<blockquote>\n The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost&nbsp;increases to their customers.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Want to know where the S&amp;P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? Take a look at profit margins.</p>\n<p>Operating margin forecasts are a strong leading indicator of stock prices. A decline in such outlooks preceded routs in the S&amp;P 500 in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2020. What’s concerning now is that analysts have stopped raising their forecasts, and if they begin to lower them, it's likely to lead to a dip in the broader market again. And it’s not like there’s a lot of room for further improvement in margins, defined as earnings before interest and taxes divided by sales. The consensus among analysts is that they will expand to 16.7% over the next 12 months, topping the previous record of 16.4% set in 2018.</p>\n<p>The relationship between S&amp;P 500 profitability and inflation indicators is murky at best, but recent spikes in the producer price index and a smaller increase in the consumer price index is enough to raise a caution flag for equity margin expansion potential for the next few quarters. At its peak in April, the PPI rose 9.5% from a year earlier, almost 3 standard deviations above its average over the past 30 years. (It rose 9.4% in June.) From 2010 to 2019, the median estimate of where operating margins would be 12 months into the future for S&amp;P 500 members were negatively correlated to changes in PPI. The current coefficient of minus 0.22 suggests gains in corporate profitability are likely to stall or even fall as producer prices continue to rise.</p>\n<p><b>Watch Those Margins</b></p>\n<p>Past dips in forecasted profit margins have lined up with pull-backs in equities.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dbda2c0b9394d518fdc8af7d693c8f3\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The difference between the PPI and CPI suggests companies are unable to pass cost increases on to consumers. The spread between the two fell to a record low of minus 5.3 percentage points in April, and is still strongly inverted at minus 4.1 percentage points. Over the last 30 years, the operating margin for the S&amp;P 500 narrowed 6.5 percentage points on average one year after the gap fell below minus 2 percentage points. Not only that, but in the year after the spread breached minus 2 percentage points, the S&amp;P fell 2.5% on average.</p>\n<p>Analysts are getting nervous. They have cut their margin estimates for a quarter of S&amp;P 500 members in the last three months. Their stocks were down 0.63%, compared with a gain of 2.20% for the index and a 3.30% increase for companies with rising margin forecasts. Slicing the index into quintiles based on changes in operating margin shows that companies with the largest declines had a median stock-price decline of 0.5%, versus a gain of 3.9% for those with the greatest expansion in consensus estimates.</p>\n<p>Industries with the most negative margin pressures are likely to be those that investors historically consider “defensive,” such as health care, utilities and consumer staples. Large companies involved in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences, household and personal products, and utilities have historically fared worst when producer prices outrun consumer prices, and these are where margin forecasts gave dropped the most over the last three months. Margins forecasts continue to rise for the more cyclically-oriented segments of the equity market, with media, consumer services, transportation and oil and gas industries having the largest gains.</p>\n<p><b>Winners and Losers</b></p>\n<p>Cyclically-oriented sectors are relatively immune from broad profit margin compression.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884366efc825eccec2878fcd4b3f0912\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"533\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Though consensus expectations imply smooth sailing, companies are set up for a more challenging margin outlook as revenue growth rates likely fade, but inflation pressures remain relatively high given persistent uncertainty in the supply chain. Against this backdrop, currently selective industry margin weaknesses may start to spread to more industries, resulting in degradation of margin forecasts for the index at large. Given these estimates are a strong strong leading indicator of stock-price direction, margin trends may be a critical risk to the equity market in the months ahead.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-02 19:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their customers.\n\nWant to know where the S&P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196763976","content_text":"The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their customers.\n\nWant to know where the S&P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? Take a look at profit margins.\nOperating margin forecasts are a strong leading indicator of stock prices. A decline in such outlooks preceded routs in the S&P 500 in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2020. What’s concerning now is that analysts have stopped raising their forecasts, and if they begin to lower them, it's likely to lead to a dip in the broader market again. And it’s not like there’s a lot of room for further improvement in margins, defined as earnings before interest and taxes divided by sales. The consensus among analysts is that they will expand to 16.7% over the next 12 months, topping the previous record of 16.4% set in 2018.\nThe relationship between S&P 500 profitability and inflation indicators is murky at best, but recent spikes in the producer price index and a smaller increase in the consumer price index is enough to raise a caution flag for equity margin expansion potential for the next few quarters. At its peak in April, the PPI rose 9.5% from a year earlier, almost 3 standard deviations above its average over the past 30 years. (It rose 9.4% in June.) From 2010 to 2019, the median estimate of where operating margins would be 12 months into the future for S&P 500 members were negatively correlated to changes in PPI. The current coefficient of minus 0.22 suggests gains in corporate profitability are likely to stall or even fall as producer prices continue to rise.\nWatch Those Margins\nPast dips in forecasted profit margins have lined up with pull-backs in equities.\nThe difference between the PPI and CPI suggests companies are unable to pass cost increases on to consumers. The spread between the two fell to a record low of minus 5.3 percentage points in April, and is still strongly inverted at minus 4.1 percentage points. Over the last 30 years, the operating margin for the S&P 500 narrowed 6.5 percentage points on average one year after the gap fell below minus 2 percentage points. Not only that, but in the year after the spread breached minus 2 percentage points, the S&P fell 2.5% on average.\nAnalysts are getting nervous. They have cut their margin estimates for a quarter of S&P 500 members in the last three months. Their stocks were down 0.63%, compared with a gain of 2.20% for the index and a 3.30% increase for companies with rising margin forecasts. Slicing the index into quintiles based on changes in operating margin shows that companies with the largest declines had a median stock-price decline of 0.5%, versus a gain of 3.9% for those with the greatest expansion in consensus estimates.\nIndustries with the most negative margin pressures are likely to be those that investors historically consider “defensive,” such as health care, utilities and consumer staples. Large companies involved in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences, household and personal products, and utilities have historically fared worst when producer prices outrun consumer prices, and these are where margin forecasts gave dropped the most over the last three months. Margins forecasts continue to rise for the more cyclically-oriented segments of the equity market, with media, consumer services, transportation and oil and gas industries having the largest gains.\nWinners and Losers\nCyclically-oriented sectors are relatively immune from broad profit margin compression.\nThough consensus expectations imply smooth sailing, companies are set up for a more challenging margin outlook as revenue growth rates likely fade, but inflation pressures remain relatively high given persistent uncertainty in the supply chain. Against this backdrop, currently selective industry margin weaknesses may start to spread to more industries, resulting in degradation of margin forecasts for the index at large. Given these estimates are a strong strong leading indicator of stock-price direction, margin trends may be a critical risk to the equity market in the months ahead.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":804853775,"gmtCreate":1627950753397,"gmtModify":1703498356183,"author":{"id":"4089420254580640","authorId":"4089420254580640","name":"dan1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/004cdbc49d81506a848acc7eb738332f","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4089420254580640","authorIdStr":"4089420254580640"},"htmlText":"[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;","text":"[Smile] [Smile] [Smile] [Smile] [Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/804853775","repostId":1196763976,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196763976","pubTimestamp":1627903466,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196763976?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-02 19:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"When Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196763976","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their","content":"<blockquote>\n The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost&nbsp;increases to their customers.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Want to know where the S&amp;P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? Take a look at profit margins.</p>\n<p>Operating margin forecasts are a strong leading indicator of stock prices. A decline in such outlooks preceded routs in the S&amp;P 500 in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2020. What’s concerning now is that analysts have stopped raising their forecasts, and if they begin to lower them, it's likely to lead to a dip in the broader market again. And it’s not like there’s a lot of room for further improvement in margins, defined as earnings before interest and taxes divided by sales. The consensus among analysts is that they will expand to 16.7% over the next 12 months, topping the previous record of 16.4% set in 2018.</p>\n<p>The relationship between S&amp;P 500 profitability and inflation indicators is murky at best, but recent spikes in the producer price index and a smaller increase in the consumer price index is enough to raise a caution flag for equity margin expansion potential for the next few quarters. At its peak in April, the PPI rose 9.5% from a year earlier, almost 3 standard deviations above its average over the past 30 years. (It rose 9.4% in June.) From 2010 to 2019, the median estimate of where operating margins would be 12 months into the future for S&amp;P 500 members were negatively correlated to changes in PPI. The current coefficient of minus 0.22 suggests gains in corporate profitability are likely to stall or even fall as producer prices continue to rise.</p>\n<p><b>Watch Those Margins</b></p>\n<p>Past dips in forecasted profit margins have lined up with pull-backs in equities.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dbda2c0b9394d518fdc8af7d693c8f3\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The difference between the PPI and CPI suggests companies are unable to pass cost increases on to consumers. The spread between the two fell to a record low of minus 5.3 percentage points in April, and is still strongly inverted at minus 4.1 percentage points. Over the last 30 years, the operating margin for the S&amp;P 500 narrowed 6.5 percentage points on average one year after the gap fell below minus 2 percentage points. Not only that, but in the year after the spread breached minus 2 percentage points, the S&amp;P fell 2.5% on average.</p>\n<p>Analysts are getting nervous. They have cut their margin estimates for a quarter of S&amp;P 500 members in the last three months. Their stocks were down 0.63%, compared with a gain of 2.20% for the index and a 3.30% increase for companies with rising margin forecasts. Slicing the index into quintiles based on changes in operating margin shows that companies with the largest declines had a median stock-price decline of 0.5%, versus a gain of 3.9% for those with the greatest expansion in consensus estimates.</p>\n<p>Industries with the most negative margin pressures are likely to be those that investors historically consider “defensive,” such as health care, utilities and consumer staples. Large companies involved in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences, household and personal products, and utilities have historically fared worst when producer prices outrun consumer prices, and these are where margin forecasts gave dropped the most over the last three months. Margins forecasts continue to rise for the more cyclically-oriented segments of the equity market, with media, consumer services, transportation and oil and gas industries having the largest gains.</p>\n<p><b>Winners and Losers</b></p>\n<p>Cyclically-oriented sectors are relatively immune from broad profit margin compression.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884366efc825eccec2878fcd4b3f0912\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"533\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Though consensus expectations imply smooth sailing, companies are set up for a more challenging margin outlook as revenue growth rates likely fade, but inflation pressures remain relatively high given persistent uncertainty in the supply chain. Against this backdrop, currently selective industry margin weaknesses may start to spread to more industries, resulting in degradation of margin forecasts for the index at large. Given these estimates are a strong strong leading indicator of stock-price direction, margin trends may be a critical risk to the equity market in the months ahead.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-02 19:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their customers.\n\nWant to know where the S&P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196763976","content_text":"The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their customers.\n\nWant to know where the S&P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? Take a look at profit margins.\nOperating margin forecasts are a strong leading indicator of stock prices. A decline in such outlooks preceded routs in the S&P 500 in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2020. What’s concerning now is that analysts have stopped raising their forecasts, and if they begin to lower them, it's likely to lead to a dip in the broader market again. And it’s not like there’s a lot of room for further improvement in margins, defined as earnings before interest and taxes divided by sales. The consensus among analysts is that they will expand to 16.7% over the next 12 months, topping the previous record of 16.4% set in 2018.\nThe relationship between S&P 500 profitability and inflation indicators is murky at best, but recent spikes in the producer price index and a smaller increase in the consumer price index is enough to raise a caution flag for equity margin expansion potential for the next few quarters. At its peak in April, the PPI rose 9.5% from a year earlier, almost 3 standard deviations above its average over the past 30 years. (It rose 9.4% in June.) From 2010 to 2019, the median estimate of where operating margins would be 12 months into the future for S&P 500 members were negatively correlated to changes in PPI. The current coefficient of minus 0.22 suggests gains in corporate profitability are likely to stall or even fall as producer prices continue to rise.\nWatch Those Margins\nPast dips in forecasted profit margins have lined up with pull-backs in equities.\nThe difference between the PPI and CPI suggests companies are unable to pass cost increases on to consumers. The spread between the two fell to a record low of minus 5.3 percentage points in April, and is still strongly inverted at minus 4.1 percentage points. Over the last 30 years, the operating margin for the S&P 500 narrowed 6.5 percentage points on average one year after the gap fell below minus 2 percentage points. Not only that, but in the year after the spread breached minus 2 percentage points, the S&P fell 2.5% on average.\nAnalysts are getting nervous. They have cut their margin estimates for a quarter of S&P 500 members in the last three months. Their stocks were down 0.63%, compared with a gain of 2.20% for the index and a 3.30% increase for companies with rising margin forecasts. Slicing the index into quintiles based on changes in operating margin shows that companies with the largest declines had a median stock-price decline of 0.5%, versus a gain of 3.9% for those with the greatest expansion in consensus estimates.\nIndustries with the most negative margin pressures are likely to be those that investors historically consider “defensive,” such as health care, utilities and consumer staples. Large companies involved in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences, household and personal products, and utilities have historically fared worst when producer prices outrun consumer prices, and these are where margin forecasts gave dropped the most over the last three months. Margins forecasts continue to rise for the more cyclically-oriented segments of the equity market, with media, consumer services, transportation and oil and gas industries having the largest gains.\nWinners and Losers\nCyclically-oriented sectors are relatively immune from broad profit margin compression.\nThough consensus expectations imply smooth sailing, companies are set up for a more challenging margin outlook as revenue growth rates likely fade, but inflation pressures remain relatively high given persistent uncertainty in the supply chain. Against this backdrop, currently selective industry margin weaknesses may start to spread to more industries, resulting in degradation of margin forecasts for the index at large. Given these estimates are a strong strong leading indicator of stock-price direction, margin trends may be a critical risk to the equity market in the months ahead.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":804859753,"gmtCreate":1627950709672,"gmtModify":1703498355359,"author":{"id":"3586676404731572","authorId":"3586676404731572","name":"TimXT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5761f8f2eec972ac144c2286155bc893","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5ceab71416b120bab4604c0754b52a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3586676404731572","authorIdStr":"3586676404731572"},"htmlText":"Good article. We need do our homework to check whether invest or not","listText":"Good article. We need do our homework to check whether invest or not","text":"Good article. We need do our homework to check whether invest or not","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/804859753","repostId":1196763976,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196763976","pubTimestamp":1627903466,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196763976?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-02 19:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"When Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196763976","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their","content":"<blockquote>\n The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost&nbsp;increases to their customers.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Want to know where the S&amp;P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? Take a look at profit margins.</p>\n<p>Operating margin forecasts are a strong leading indicator of stock prices. A decline in such outlooks preceded routs in the S&amp;P 500 in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2020. What’s concerning now is that analysts have stopped raising their forecasts, and if they begin to lower them, it's likely to lead to a dip in the broader market again. And it’s not like there’s a lot of room for further improvement in margins, defined as earnings before interest and taxes divided by sales. The consensus among analysts is that they will expand to 16.7% over the next 12 months, topping the previous record of 16.4% set in 2018.</p>\n<p>The relationship between S&amp;P 500 profitability and inflation indicators is murky at best, but recent spikes in the producer price index and a smaller increase in the consumer price index is enough to raise a caution flag for equity margin expansion potential for the next few quarters. At its peak in April, the PPI rose 9.5% from a year earlier, almost 3 standard deviations above its average over the past 30 years. (It rose 9.4% in June.) From 2010 to 2019, the median estimate of where operating margins would be 12 months into the future for S&amp;P 500 members were negatively correlated to changes in PPI. The current coefficient of minus 0.22 suggests gains in corporate profitability are likely to stall or even fall as producer prices continue to rise.</p>\n<p><b>Watch Those Margins</b></p>\n<p>Past dips in forecasted profit margins have lined up with pull-backs in equities.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dbda2c0b9394d518fdc8af7d693c8f3\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The difference between the PPI and CPI suggests companies are unable to pass cost increases on to consumers. The spread between the two fell to a record low of minus 5.3 percentage points in April, and is still strongly inverted at minus 4.1 percentage points. Over the last 30 years, the operating margin for the S&amp;P 500 narrowed 6.5 percentage points on average one year after the gap fell below minus 2 percentage points. Not only that, but in the year after the spread breached minus 2 percentage points, the S&amp;P fell 2.5% on average.</p>\n<p>Analysts are getting nervous. They have cut their margin estimates for a quarter of S&amp;P 500 members in the last three months. Their stocks were down 0.63%, compared with a gain of 2.20% for the index and a 3.30% increase for companies with rising margin forecasts. Slicing the index into quintiles based on changes in operating margin shows that companies with the largest declines had a median stock-price decline of 0.5%, versus a gain of 3.9% for those with the greatest expansion in consensus estimates.</p>\n<p>Industries with the most negative margin pressures are likely to be those that investors historically consider “defensive,” such as health care, utilities and consumer staples. Large companies involved in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences, household and personal products, and utilities have historically fared worst when producer prices outrun consumer prices, and these are where margin forecasts gave dropped the most over the last three months. Margins forecasts continue to rise for the more cyclically-oriented segments of the equity market, with media, consumer services, transportation and oil and gas industries having the largest gains.</p>\n<p><b>Winners and Losers</b></p>\n<p>Cyclically-oriented sectors are relatively immune from broad profit margin compression.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884366efc825eccec2878fcd4b3f0912\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"533\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Though consensus expectations imply smooth sailing, companies are set up for a more challenging margin outlook as revenue growth rates likely fade, but inflation pressures remain relatively high given persistent uncertainty in the supply chain. Against this backdrop, currently selective industry margin weaknesses may start to spread to more industries, resulting in degradation of margin forecasts for the index at large. Given these estimates are a strong strong leading indicator of stock-price direction, margin trends may be a critical risk to the equity market in the months ahead.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-02 19:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their customers.\n\nWant to know where the S&P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196763976","content_text":"The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their customers.\n\nWant to know where the S&P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? Take a look at profit margins.\nOperating margin forecasts are a strong leading indicator of stock prices. A decline in such outlooks preceded routs in the S&P 500 in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2020. What’s concerning now is that analysts have stopped raising their forecasts, and if they begin to lower them, it's likely to lead to a dip in the broader market again. And it’s not like there’s a lot of room for further improvement in margins, defined as earnings before interest and taxes divided by sales. The consensus among analysts is that they will expand to 16.7% over the next 12 months, topping the previous record of 16.4% set in 2018.\nThe relationship between S&P 500 profitability and inflation indicators is murky at best, but recent spikes in the producer price index and a smaller increase in the consumer price index is enough to raise a caution flag for equity margin expansion potential for the next few quarters. At its peak in April, the PPI rose 9.5% from a year earlier, almost 3 standard deviations above its average over the past 30 years. (It rose 9.4% in June.) From 2010 to 2019, the median estimate of where operating margins would be 12 months into the future for S&P 500 members were negatively correlated to changes in PPI. The current coefficient of minus 0.22 suggests gains in corporate profitability are likely to stall or even fall as producer prices continue to rise.\nWatch Those Margins\nPast dips in forecasted profit margins have lined up with pull-backs in equities.\nThe difference between the PPI and CPI suggests companies are unable to pass cost increases on to consumers. The spread between the two fell to a record low of minus 5.3 percentage points in April, and is still strongly inverted at minus 4.1 percentage points. Over the last 30 years, the operating margin for the S&P 500 narrowed 6.5 percentage points on average one year after the gap fell below minus 2 percentage points. Not only that, but in the year after the spread breached minus 2 percentage points, the S&P fell 2.5% on average.\nAnalysts are getting nervous. They have cut their margin estimates for a quarter of S&P 500 members in the last three months. Their stocks were down 0.63%, compared with a gain of 2.20% for the index and a 3.30% increase for companies with rising margin forecasts. Slicing the index into quintiles based on changes in operating margin shows that companies with the largest declines had a median stock-price decline of 0.5%, versus a gain of 3.9% for those with the greatest expansion in consensus estimates.\nIndustries with the most negative margin pressures are likely to be those that investors historically consider “defensive,” such as health care, utilities and consumer staples. Large companies involved in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences, household and personal products, and utilities have historically fared worst when producer prices outrun consumer prices, and these are where margin forecasts gave dropped the most over the last three months. Margins forecasts continue to rise for the more cyclically-oriented segments of the equity market, with media, consumer services, transportation and oil and gas industries having the largest gains.\nWinners and Losers\nCyclically-oriented sectors are relatively immune from broad profit margin compression.\nThough consensus expectations imply smooth sailing, companies are set up for a more challenging margin outlook as revenue growth rates likely fade, but inflation pressures remain relatively high given persistent uncertainty in the supply chain. Against this backdrop, currently selective industry margin weaknesses may start to spread to more industries, resulting in degradation of margin forecasts for the index at large. Given these estimates are a strong strong leading indicator of stock-price direction, margin trends may be a critical risk to the equity market in the months ahead.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5410647,"gmtCreate":1627963335901,"gmtModify":1663231854441,"authorId":3575091423649914,"author":{"id":3575091423649914,"idStr":"3575091423649914","authorId":3575091423649914,"name":"diggydog","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/476e481044aa54d1d955e8bc4b856dd4","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.10.29","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":804859753,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<p>Agreed</p>","text":"<p>Agreed</p>","html":"<p>Agreed</p>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":804163356,"gmtCreate":1627946143375,"gmtModify":1703498182955,"author":{"id":"3586131488444401","authorId":"3586131488444401","name":"STKG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/730c2482b43ac1909a601868b378a6e4","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3586131488444401","authorIdStr":"3586131488444401"},"htmlText":"Lots of factors cause the drop not&nbsp;only profit margin. Many strategies you can do.&nbsp;","listText":"Lots of factors cause the drop not&nbsp;only profit margin. Many strategies you can do.&nbsp;","text":"Lots of factors cause the drop not only profit margin. Many strategies you can do.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/804163356","repostId":1196763976,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196763976","pubTimestamp":1627903466,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196763976?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-02 19:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"When Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196763976","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their","content":"<blockquote>\n The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost&nbsp;increases to their customers.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Want to know where the S&amp;P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? Take a look at profit margins.</p>\n<p>Operating margin forecasts are a strong leading indicator of stock prices. A decline in such outlooks preceded routs in the S&amp;P 500 in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2020. What’s concerning now is that analysts have stopped raising their forecasts, and if they begin to lower them, it's likely to lead to a dip in the broader market again. And it’s not like there’s a lot of room for further improvement in margins, defined as earnings before interest and taxes divided by sales. The consensus among analysts is that they will expand to 16.7% over the next 12 months, topping the previous record of 16.4% set in 2018.</p>\n<p>The relationship between S&amp;P 500 profitability and inflation indicators is murky at best, but recent spikes in the producer price index and a smaller increase in the consumer price index is enough to raise a caution flag for equity margin expansion potential for the next few quarters. At its peak in April, the PPI rose 9.5% from a year earlier, almost 3 standard deviations above its average over the past 30 years. (It rose 9.4% in June.) From 2010 to 2019, the median estimate of where operating margins would be 12 months into the future for S&amp;P 500 members were negatively correlated to changes in PPI. The current coefficient of minus 0.22 suggests gains in corporate profitability are likely to stall or even fall as producer prices continue to rise.</p>\n<p><b>Watch Those Margins</b></p>\n<p>Past dips in forecasted profit margins have lined up with pull-backs in equities.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dbda2c0b9394d518fdc8af7d693c8f3\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The difference between the PPI and CPI suggests companies are unable to pass cost increases on to consumers. The spread between the two fell to a record low of minus 5.3 percentage points in April, and is still strongly inverted at minus 4.1 percentage points. Over the last 30 years, the operating margin for the S&amp;P 500 narrowed 6.5 percentage points on average one year after the gap fell below minus 2 percentage points. Not only that, but in the year after the spread breached minus 2 percentage points, the S&amp;P fell 2.5% on average.</p>\n<p>Analysts are getting nervous. They have cut their margin estimates for a quarter of S&amp;P 500 members in the last three months. Their stocks were down 0.63%, compared with a gain of 2.20% for the index and a 3.30% increase for companies with rising margin forecasts. Slicing the index into quintiles based on changes in operating margin shows that companies with the largest declines had a median stock-price decline of 0.5%, versus a gain of 3.9% for those with the greatest expansion in consensus estimates.</p>\n<p>Industries with the most negative margin pressures are likely to be those that investors historically consider “defensive,” such as health care, utilities and consumer staples. Large companies involved in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences, household and personal products, and utilities have historically fared worst when producer prices outrun consumer prices, and these are where margin forecasts gave dropped the most over the last three months. Margins forecasts continue to rise for the more cyclically-oriented segments of the equity market, with media, consumer services, transportation and oil and gas industries having the largest gains.</p>\n<p><b>Winners and Losers</b></p>\n<p>Cyclically-oriented sectors are relatively immune from broad profit margin compression.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884366efc825eccec2878fcd4b3f0912\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"533\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Though consensus expectations imply smooth sailing, companies are set up for a more challenging margin outlook as revenue growth rates likely fade, but inflation pressures remain relatively high given persistent uncertainty in the supply chain. Against this backdrop, currently selective industry margin weaknesses may start to spread to more industries, resulting in degradation of margin forecasts for the index at large. Given these estimates are a strong strong leading indicator of stock-price direction, margin trends may be a critical risk to the equity market in the months ahead.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-02 19:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their customers.\n\nWant to know where the S&P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196763976","content_text":"The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their customers.\n\nWant to know where the S&P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? Take a look at profit margins.\nOperating margin forecasts are a strong leading indicator of stock prices. A decline in such outlooks preceded routs in the S&P 500 in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2020. What’s concerning now is that analysts have stopped raising their forecasts, and if they begin to lower them, it's likely to lead to a dip in the broader market again. And it’s not like there’s a lot of room for further improvement in margins, defined as earnings before interest and taxes divided by sales. The consensus among analysts is that they will expand to 16.7% over the next 12 months, topping the previous record of 16.4% set in 2018.\nThe relationship between S&P 500 profitability and inflation indicators is murky at best, but recent spikes in the producer price index and a smaller increase in the consumer price index is enough to raise a caution flag for equity margin expansion potential for the next few quarters. At its peak in April, the PPI rose 9.5% from a year earlier, almost 3 standard deviations above its average over the past 30 years. (It rose 9.4% in June.) From 2010 to 2019, the median estimate of where operating margins would be 12 months into the future for S&P 500 members were negatively correlated to changes in PPI. The current coefficient of minus 0.22 suggests gains in corporate profitability are likely to stall or even fall as producer prices continue to rise.\nWatch Those Margins\nPast dips in forecasted profit margins have lined up with pull-backs in equities.\nThe difference between the PPI and CPI suggests companies are unable to pass cost increases on to consumers. The spread between the two fell to a record low of minus 5.3 percentage points in April, and is still strongly inverted at minus 4.1 percentage points. Over the last 30 years, the operating margin for the S&P 500 narrowed 6.5 percentage points on average one year after the gap fell below minus 2 percentage points. Not only that, but in the year after the spread breached minus 2 percentage points, the S&P fell 2.5% on average.\nAnalysts are getting nervous. They have cut their margin estimates for a quarter of S&P 500 members in the last three months. Their stocks were down 0.63%, compared with a gain of 2.20% for the index and a 3.30% increase for companies with rising margin forecasts. Slicing the index into quintiles based on changes in operating margin shows that companies with the largest declines had a median stock-price decline of 0.5%, versus a gain of 3.9% for those with the greatest expansion in consensus estimates.\nIndustries with the most negative margin pressures are likely to be those that investors historically consider “defensive,” such as health care, utilities and consumer staples. Large companies involved in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences, household and personal products, and utilities have historically fared worst when producer prices outrun consumer prices, and these are where margin forecasts gave dropped the most over the last three months. Margins forecasts continue to rise for the more cyclically-oriented segments of the equity market, with media, consumer services, transportation and oil and gas industries having the largest gains.\nWinners and Losers\nCyclically-oriented sectors are relatively immune from broad profit margin compression.\nThough consensus expectations imply smooth sailing, companies are set up for a more challenging margin outlook as revenue growth rates likely fade, but inflation pressures remain relatively high given persistent uncertainty in the supply chain. Against this backdrop, currently selective industry margin weaknesses may start to spread to more industries, resulting in degradation of margin forecasts for the index at large. Given these estimates are a strong strong leading indicator of stock-price direction, margin trends may be a critical risk to the equity market in the months ahead.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":804184494,"gmtCreate":1627945889718,"gmtModify":1703498177994,"author":{"id":"3575163551534398","authorId":"3575163551534398","name":"MightyPooP","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aec66d00ca2b1f2b75412008d93edd14","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f84859c65fc2d7681e28f6b8e9b0535a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3575163551534398","authorIdStr":"3575163551534398"},"htmlText":"Dollar cost average and do your research on fundamentals before committing.","listText":"Dollar cost average and do your research on fundamentals before committing.","text":"Dollar cost average and do your research on fundamentals before committing.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/804184494","repostId":1196763976,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196763976","pubTimestamp":1627903466,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196763976?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-02 19:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"When Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196763976","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their","content":"<blockquote>\n The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost&nbsp;increases to their customers.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Want to know where the S&amp;P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? Take a look at profit margins.</p>\n<p>Operating margin forecasts are a strong leading indicator of stock prices. A decline in such outlooks preceded routs in the S&amp;P 500 in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2020. What’s concerning now is that analysts have stopped raising their forecasts, and if they begin to lower them, it's likely to lead to a dip in the broader market again. And it’s not like there’s a lot of room for further improvement in margins, defined as earnings before interest and taxes divided by sales. The consensus among analysts is that they will expand to 16.7% over the next 12 months, topping the previous record of 16.4% set in 2018.</p>\n<p>The relationship between S&amp;P 500 profitability and inflation indicators is murky at best, but recent spikes in the producer price index and a smaller increase in the consumer price index is enough to raise a caution flag for equity margin expansion potential for the next few quarters. At its peak in April, the PPI rose 9.5% from a year earlier, almost 3 standard deviations above its average over the past 30 years. (It rose 9.4% in June.) From 2010 to 2019, the median estimate of where operating margins would be 12 months into the future for S&amp;P 500 members were negatively correlated to changes in PPI. The current coefficient of minus 0.22 suggests gains in corporate profitability are likely to stall or even fall as producer prices continue to rise.</p>\n<p><b>Watch Those Margins</b></p>\n<p>Past dips in forecasted profit margins have lined up with pull-backs in equities.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dbda2c0b9394d518fdc8af7d693c8f3\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The difference between the PPI and CPI suggests companies are unable to pass cost increases on to consumers. The spread between the two fell to a record low of minus 5.3 percentage points in April, and is still strongly inverted at minus 4.1 percentage points. Over the last 30 years, the operating margin for the S&amp;P 500 narrowed 6.5 percentage points on average one year after the gap fell below minus 2 percentage points. Not only that, but in the year after the spread breached minus 2 percentage points, the S&amp;P fell 2.5% on average.</p>\n<p>Analysts are getting nervous. They have cut their margin estimates for a quarter of S&amp;P 500 members in the last three months. Their stocks were down 0.63%, compared with a gain of 2.20% for the index and a 3.30% increase for companies with rising margin forecasts. Slicing the index into quintiles based on changes in operating margin shows that companies with the largest declines had a median stock-price decline of 0.5%, versus a gain of 3.9% for those with the greatest expansion in consensus estimates.</p>\n<p>Industries with the most negative margin pressures are likely to be those that investors historically consider “defensive,” such as health care, utilities and consumer staples. Large companies involved in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences, household and personal products, and utilities have historically fared worst when producer prices outrun consumer prices, and these are where margin forecasts gave dropped the most over the last three months. Margins forecasts continue to rise for the more cyclically-oriented segments of the equity market, with media, consumer services, transportation and oil and gas industries having the largest gains.</p>\n<p><b>Winners and Losers</b></p>\n<p>Cyclically-oriented sectors are relatively immune from broad profit margin compression.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884366efc825eccec2878fcd4b3f0912\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"533\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Though consensus expectations imply smooth sailing, companies are set up for a more challenging margin outlook as revenue growth rates likely fade, but inflation pressures remain relatively high given persistent uncertainty in the supply chain. Against this backdrop, currently selective industry margin weaknesses may start to spread to more industries, resulting in degradation of margin forecasts for the index at large. Given these estimates are a strong strong leading indicator of stock-price direction, margin trends may be a critical risk to the equity market in the months ahead.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-02 19:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their customers.\n\nWant to know where the S&P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196763976","content_text":"The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their customers.\n\nWant to know where the S&P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? Take a look at profit margins.\nOperating margin forecasts are a strong leading indicator of stock prices. A decline in such outlooks preceded routs in the S&P 500 in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2020. What’s concerning now is that analysts have stopped raising their forecasts, and if they begin to lower them, it's likely to lead to a dip in the broader market again. And it’s not like there’s a lot of room for further improvement in margins, defined as earnings before interest and taxes divided by sales. The consensus among analysts is that they will expand to 16.7% over the next 12 months, topping the previous record of 16.4% set in 2018.\nThe relationship between S&P 500 profitability and inflation indicators is murky at best, but recent spikes in the producer price index and a smaller increase in the consumer price index is enough to raise a caution flag for equity margin expansion potential for the next few quarters. At its peak in April, the PPI rose 9.5% from a year earlier, almost 3 standard deviations above its average over the past 30 years. (It rose 9.4% in June.) From 2010 to 2019, the median estimate of where operating margins would be 12 months into the future for S&P 500 members were negatively correlated to changes in PPI. The current coefficient of minus 0.22 suggests gains in corporate profitability are likely to stall or even fall as producer prices continue to rise.\nWatch Those Margins\nPast dips in forecasted profit margins have lined up with pull-backs in equities.\nThe difference between the PPI and CPI suggests companies are unable to pass cost increases on to consumers. The spread between the two fell to a record low of minus 5.3 percentage points in April, and is still strongly inverted at minus 4.1 percentage points. Over the last 30 years, the operating margin for the S&P 500 narrowed 6.5 percentage points on average one year after the gap fell below minus 2 percentage points. Not only that, but in the year after the spread breached minus 2 percentage points, the S&P fell 2.5% on average.\nAnalysts are getting nervous. They have cut their margin estimates for a quarter of S&P 500 members in the last three months. Their stocks were down 0.63%, compared with a gain of 2.20% for the index and a 3.30% increase for companies with rising margin forecasts. Slicing the index into quintiles based on changes in operating margin shows that companies with the largest declines had a median stock-price decline of 0.5%, versus a gain of 3.9% for those with the greatest expansion in consensus estimates.\nIndustries with the most negative margin pressures are likely to be those that investors historically consider “defensive,” such as health care, utilities and consumer staples. Large companies involved in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences, household and personal products, and utilities have historically fared worst when producer prices outrun consumer prices, and these are where margin forecasts gave dropped the most over the last three months. Margins forecasts continue to rise for the more cyclically-oriented segments of the equity market, with media, consumer services, transportation and oil and gas industries having the largest gains.\nWinners and Losers\nCyclically-oriented sectors are relatively immune from broad profit margin compression.\nThough consensus expectations imply smooth sailing, companies are set up for a more challenging margin outlook as revenue growth rates likely fade, but inflation pressures remain relatively high given persistent uncertainty in the supply chain. Against this backdrop, currently selective industry margin weaknesses may start to spread to more industries, resulting in degradation of margin forecasts for the index at large. Given these estimates are a strong strong leading indicator of stock-price direction, margin trends may be a critical risk to the equity market in the months ahead.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5407123,"gmtCreate":1627945925218,"gmtModify":1663231840541,"authorId":3586131488444401,"author":{"id":3586131488444401,"idStr":"3586131488444401","authorId":3586131488444401,"name":"STKG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/730c2482b43ac1909a601868b378a6e4","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":804184494,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>agree</u>","text":"<u>agree</u>","html":"<u>agree</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":804182638,"gmtCreate":1627945779224,"gmtModify":1703498174358,"author":{"id":"4088415017171770","authorId":"4088415017171770","name":"PYEO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffd529f4a692f5731760183a63c10858","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4088415017171770","authorIdStr":"4088415017171770"},"htmlText":"Good article.","listText":"Good article.","text":"Good article.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/804182638","repostId":1196763976,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196763976","pubTimestamp":1627903466,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196763976?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-02 19:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"When Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196763976","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their","content":"<blockquote>\n The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost&nbsp;increases to their customers.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Want to know where the S&amp;P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? Take a look at profit margins.</p>\n<p>Operating margin forecasts are a strong leading indicator of stock prices. A decline in such outlooks preceded routs in the S&amp;P 500 in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2020. What’s concerning now is that analysts have stopped raising their forecasts, and if they begin to lower them, it's likely to lead to a dip in the broader market again. And it’s not like there’s a lot of room for further improvement in margins, defined as earnings before interest and taxes divided by sales. The consensus among analysts is that they will expand to 16.7% over the next 12 months, topping the previous record of 16.4% set in 2018.</p>\n<p>The relationship between S&amp;P 500 profitability and inflation indicators is murky at best, but recent spikes in the producer price index and a smaller increase in the consumer price index is enough to raise a caution flag for equity margin expansion potential for the next few quarters. At its peak in April, the PPI rose 9.5% from a year earlier, almost 3 standard deviations above its average over the past 30 years. (It rose 9.4% in June.) From 2010 to 2019, the median estimate of where operating margins would be 12 months into the future for S&amp;P 500 members were negatively correlated to changes in PPI. The current coefficient of minus 0.22 suggests gains in corporate profitability are likely to stall or even fall as producer prices continue to rise.</p>\n<p><b>Watch Those Margins</b></p>\n<p>Past dips in forecasted profit margins have lined up with pull-backs in equities.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dbda2c0b9394d518fdc8af7d693c8f3\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The difference between the PPI and CPI suggests companies are unable to pass cost increases on to consumers. The spread between the two fell to a record low of minus 5.3 percentage points in April, and is still strongly inverted at minus 4.1 percentage points. Over the last 30 years, the operating margin for the S&amp;P 500 narrowed 6.5 percentage points on average one year after the gap fell below minus 2 percentage points. Not only that, but in the year after the spread breached minus 2 percentage points, the S&amp;P fell 2.5% on average.</p>\n<p>Analysts are getting nervous. They have cut their margin estimates for a quarter of S&amp;P 500 members in the last three months. Their stocks were down 0.63%, compared with a gain of 2.20% for the index and a 3.30% increase for companies with rising margin forecasts. Slicing the index into quintiles based on changes in operating margin shows that companies with the largest declines had a median stock-price decline of 0.5%, versus a gain of 3.9% for those with the greatest expansion in consensus estimates.</p>\n<p>Industries with the most negative margin pressures are likely to be those that investors historically consider “defensive,” such as health care, utilities and consumer staples. Large companies involved in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences, household and personal products, and utilities have historically fared worst when producer prices outrun consumer prices, and these are where margin forecasts gave dropped the most over the last three months. Margins forecasts continue to rise for the more cyclically-oriented segments of the equity market, with media, consumer services, transportation and oil and gas industries having the largest gains.</p>\n<p><b>Winners and Losers</b></p>\n<p>Cyclically-oriented sectors are relatively immune from broad profit margin compression.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884366efc825eccec2878fcd4b3f0912\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"533\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Though consensus expectations imply smooth sailing, companies are set up for a more challenging margin outlook as revenue growth rates likely fade, but inflation pressures remain relatively high given persistent uncertainty in the supply chain. Against this backdrop, currently selective industry margin weaknesses may start to spread to more industries, resulting in degradation of margin forecasts for the index at large. Given these estimates are a strong strong leading indicator of stock-price direction, margin trends may be a critical risk to the equity market in the months ahead.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-02 19:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their customers.\n\nWant to know where the S&P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196763976","content_text":"The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their customers.\n\nWant to know where the S&P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? Take a look at profit margins.\nOperating margin forecasts are a strong leading indicator of stock prices. A decline in such outlooks preceded routs in the S&P 500 in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2020. What’s concerning now is that analysts have stopped raising their forecasts, and if they begin to lower them, it's likely to lead to a dip in the broader market again. And it’s not like there’s a lot of room for further improvement in margins, defined as earnings before interest and taxes divided by sales. The consensus among analysts is that they will expand to 16.7% over the next 12 months, topping the previous record of 16.4% set in 2018.\nThe relationship between S&P 500 profitability and inflation indicators is murky at best, but recent spikes in the producer price index and a smaller increase in the consumer price index is enough to raise a caution flag for equity margin expansion potential for the next few quarters. At its peak in April, the PPI rose 9.5% from a year earlier, almost 3 standard deviations above its average over the past 30 years. (It rose 9.4% in June.) From 2010 to 2019, the median estimate of where operating margins would be 12 months into the future for S&P 500 members were negatively correlated to changes in PPI. The current coefficient of minus 0.22 suggests gains in corporate profitability are likely to stall or even fall as producer prices continue to rise.\nWatch Those Margins\nPast dips in forecasted profit margins have lined up with pull-backs in equities.\nThe difference between the PPI and CPI suggests companies are unable to pass cost increases on to consumers. The spread between the two fell to a record low of minus 5.3 percentage points in April, and is still strongly inverted at minus 4.1 percentage points. Over the last 30 years, the operating margin for the S&P 500 narrowed 6.5 percentage points on average one year after the gap fell below minus 2 percentage points. Not only that, but in the year after the spread breached minus 2 percentage points, the S&P fell 2.5% on average.\nAnalysts are getting nervous. They have cut their margin estimates for a quarter of S&P 500 members in the last three months. Their stocks were down 0.63%, compared with a gain of 2.20% for the index and a 3.30% increase for companies with rising margin forecasts. Slicing the index into quintiles based on changes in operating margin shows that companies with the largest declines had a median stock-price decline of 0.5%, versus a gain of 3.9% for those with the greatest expansion in consensus estimates.\nIndustries with the most negative margin pressures are likely to be those that investors historically consider “defensive,” such as health care, utilities and consumer staples. Large companies involved in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences, household and personal products, and utilities have historically fared worst when producer prices outrun consumer prices, and these are where margin forecasts gave dropped the most over the last three months. Margins forecasts continue to rise for the more cyclically-oriented segments of the equity market, with media, consumer services, transportation and oil and gas industries having the largest gains.\nWinners and Losers\nCyclically-oriented sectors are relatively immune from broad profit margin compression.\nThough consensus expectations imply smooth sailing, companies are set up for a more challenging margin outlook as revenue growth rates likely fade, but inflation pressures remain relatively high given persistent uncertainty in the supply chain. Against this backdrop, currently selective industry margin weaknesses may start to spread to more industries, resulting in degradation of margin forecasts for the index at large. Given these estimates are a strong strong leading indicator of stock-price direction, margin trends may be a critical risk to the equity market in the months ahead.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5407109,"gmtCreate":1627945863606,"gmtModify":1663231840426,"authorId":4088415017171770,"author":{"id":4088415017171770,"idStr":"4088415017171770","authorId":4088415017171770,"name":"PYEO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffd529f4a692f5731760183a63c10858","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":804182638,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Thank you.","text":"Thank you.","html":"Thank you."}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":804186775,"gmtCreate":1627945731397,"gmtModify":1703498173363,"author":{"id":"3566089803841994","authorId":"3566089803841994","name":"Et1502","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593ec0056928c16af9027b7137674d79","vip":1,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3566089803841994","authorIdStr":"3566089803841994"},"htmlText":"Margin is only one of the many variables to grow a company.","listText":"Margin is only one of the many variables to grow a company.","text":"Margin is only one of the many variables to grow a company.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/804186775","repostId":1196763976,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196763976","pubTimestamp":1627903466,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196763976?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-02 19:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"When Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196763976","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their","content":"<blockquote>\n The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost&nbsp;increases to their customers.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Want to know where the S&amp;P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? Take a look at profit margins.</p>\n<p>Operating margin forecasts are a strong leading indicator of stock prices. A decline in such outlooks preceded routs in the S&amp;P 500 in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2020. What’s concerning now is that analysts have stopped raising their forecasts, and if they begin to lower them, it's likely to lead to a dip in the broader market again. And it’s not like there’s a lot of room for further improvement in margins, defined as earnings before interest and taxes divided by sales. The consensus among analysts is that they will expand to 16.7% over the next 12 months, topping the previous record of 16.4% set in 2018.</p>\n<p>The relationship between S&amp;P 500 profitability and inflation indicators is murky at best, but recent spikes in the producer price index and a smaller increase in the consumer price index is enough to raise a caution flag for equity margin expansion potential for the next few quarters. At its peak in April, the PPI rose 9.5% from a year earlier, almost 3 standard deviations above its average over the past 30 years. (It rose 9.4% in June.) From 2010 to 2019, the median estimate of where operating margins would be 12 months into the future for S&amp;P 500 members were negatively correlated to changes in PPI. The current coefficient of minus 0.22 suggests gains in corporate profitability are likely to stall or even fall as producer prices continue to rise.</p>\n<p><b>Watch Those Margins</b></p>\n<p>Past dips in forecasted profit margins have lined up with pull-backs in equities.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dbda2c0b9394d518fdc8af7d693c8f3\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The difference between the PPI and CPI suggests companies are unable to pass cost increases on to consumers. The spread between the two fell to a record low of minus 5.3 percentage points in April, and is still strongly inverted at minus 4.1 percentage points. Over the last 30 years, the operating margin for the S&amp;P 500 narrowed 6.5 percentage points on average one year after the gap fell below minus 2 percentage points. Not only that, but in the year after the spread breached minus 2 percentage points, the S&amp;P fell 2.5% on average.</p>\n<p>Analysts are getting nervous. They have cut their margin estimates for a quarter of S&amp;P 500 members in the last three months. Their stocks were down 0.63%, compared with a gain of 2.20% for the index and a 3.30% increase for companies with rising margin forecasts. Slicing the index into quintiles based on changes in operating margin shows that companies with the largest declines had a median stock-price decline of 0.5%, versus a gain of 3.9% for those with the greatest expansion in consensus estimates.</p>\n<p>Industries with the most negative margin pressures are likely to be those that investors historically consider “defensive,” such as health care, utilities and consumer staples. Large companies involved in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences, household and personal products, and utilities have historically fared worst when producer prices outrun consumer prices, and these are where margin forecasts gave dropped the most over the last three months. Margins forecasts continue to rise for the more cyclically-oriented segments of the equity market, with media, consumer services, transportation and oil and gas industries having the largest gains.</p>\n<p><b>Winners and Losers</b></p>\n<p>Cyclically-oriented sectors are relatively immune from broad profit margin compression.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884366efc825eccec2878fcd4b3f0912\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"533\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Though consensus expectations imply smooth sailing, companies are set up for a more challenging margin outlook as revenue growth rates likely fade, but inflation pressures remain relatively high given persistent uncertainty in the supply chain. Against this backdrop, currently selective industry margin weaknesses may start to spread to more industries, resulting in degradation of margin forecasts for the index at large. Given these estimates are a strong strong leading indicator of stock-price direction, margin trends may be a critical risk to the equity market in the months ahead.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-02 19:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their customers.\n\nWant to know where the S&P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196763976","content_text":"The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their customers.\n\nWant to know where the S&P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? Take a look at profit margins.\nOperating margin forecasts are a strong leading indicator of stock prices. A decline in such outlooks preceded routs in the S&P 500 in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2020. What’s concerning now is that analysts have stopped raising their forecasts, and if they begin to lower them, it's likely to lead to a dip in the broader market again. And it’s not like there’s a lot of room for further improvement in margins, defined as earnings before interest and taxes divided by sales. The consensus among analysts is that they will expand to 16.7% over the next 12 months, topping the previous record of 16.4% set in 2018.\nThe relationship between S&P 500 profitability and inflation indicators is murky at best, but recent spikes in the producer price index and a smaller increase in the consumer price index is enough to raise a caution flag for equity margin expansion potential for the next few quarters. At its peak in April, the PPI rose 9.5% from a year earlier, almost 3 standard deviations above its average over the past 30 years. (It rose 9.4% in June.) From 2010 to 2019, the median estimate of where operating margins would be 12 months into the future for S&P 500 members were negatively correlated to changes in PPI. The current coefficient of minus 0.22 suggests gains in corporate profitability are likely to stall or even fall as producer prices continue to rise.\nWatch Those Margins\nPast dips in forecasted profit margins have lined up with pull-backs in equities.\nThe difference between the PPI and CPI suggests companies are unable to pass cost increases on to consumers. The spread between the two fell to a record low of minus 5.3 percentage points in April, and is still strongly inverted at minus 4.1 percentage points. Over the last 30 years, the operating margin for the S&P 500 narrowed 6.5 percentage points on average one year after the gap fell below minus 2 percentage points. Not only that, but in the year after the spread breached minus 2 percentage points, the S&P fell 2.5% on average.\nAnalysts are getting nervous. They have cut their margin estimates for a quarter of S&P 500 members in the last three months. Their stocks were down 0.63%, compared with a gain of 2.20% for the index and a 3.30% increase for companies with rising margin forecasts. Slicing the index into quintiles based on changes in operating margin shows that companies with the largest declines had a median stock-price decline of 0.5%, versus a gain of 3.9% for those with the greatest expansion in consensus estimates.\nIndustries with the most negative margin pressures are likely to be those that investors historically consider “defensive,” such as health care, utilities and consumer staples. Large companies involved in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences, household and personal products, and utilities have historically fared worst when producer prices outrun consumer prices, and these are where margin forecasts gave dropped the most over the last three months. Margins forecasts continue to rise for the more cyclically-oriented segments of the equity market, with media, consumer services, transportation and oil and gas industries having the largest gains.\nWinners and Losers\nCyclically-oriented sectors are relatively immune from broad profit margin compression.\nThough consensus expectations imply smooth sailing, companies are set up for a more challenging margin outlook as revenue growth rates likely fade, but inflation pressures remain relatively high given persistent uncertainty in the supply chain. Against this backdrop, currently selective industry margin weaknesses may start to spread to more industries, resulting in degradation of margin forecasts for the index at large. Given these estimates are a strong strong leading indicator of stock-price direction, margin trends may be a critical risk to the equity market in the months ahead.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5407103,"gmtCreate":1627945826969,"gmtModify":1663231840631,"authorId":3575163551534398,"author":{"id":3575163551534398,"idStr":"3575163551534398","authorId":3575163551534398,"name":"MightyPooP","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aec66d00ca2b1f2b75412008d93edd14","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":804186775,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"good","text":"good","html":"good"},{"id":5407121,"gmtCreate":1627945919485,"gmtModify":1663231839563,"authorId":3586131488444401,"author":{"id":3586131488444401,"idStr":"3586131488444401","authorId":3586131488444401,"name":"STKG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/730c2482b43ac1909a601868b378a6e4","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":804186775,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>agree</u>","text":"<u>agree</u>","html":"<u>agree</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":804186167,"gmtCreate":1627945682059,"gmtModify":1703498172862,"author":{"id":"3581974691543530","authorId":"3581974691543530","name":"Cassjo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e87388c6aea1be3c1691b78e8e7ee22","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581974691543530","authorIdStr":"3581974691543530"},"htmlText":"Ok thanks","listText":"Ok thanks","text":"Ok thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/804186167","repostId":1196763976,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196763976","pubTimestamp":1627903466,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196763976?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-02 19:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"When Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196763976","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their","content":"<blockquote>\n The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost&nbsp;increases to their customers.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Want to know where the S&amp;P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? Take a look at profit margins.</p>\n<p>Operating margin forecasts are a strong leading indicator of stock prices. A decline in such outlooks preceded routs in the S&amp;P 500 in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2020. What’s concerning now is that analysts have stopped raising their forecasts, and if they begin to lower them, it's likely to lead to a dip in the broader market again. And it’s not like there’s a lot of room for further improvement in margins, defined as earnings before interest and taxes divided by sales. The consensus among analysts is that they will expand to 16.7% over the next 12 months, topping the previous record of 16.4% set in 2018.</p>\n<p>The relationship between S&amp;P 500 profitability and inflation indicators is murky at best, but recent spikes in the producer price index and a smaller increase in the consumer price index is enough to raise a caution flag for equity margin expansion potential for the next few quarters. At its peak in April, the PPI rose 9.5% from a year earlier, almost 3 standard deviations above its average over the past 30 years. (It rose 9.4% in June.) From 2010 to 2019, the median estimate of where operating margins would be 12 months into the future for S&amp;P 500 members were negatively correlated to changes in PPI. The current coefficient of minus 0.22 suggests gains in corporate profitability are likely to stall or even fall as producer prices continue to rise.</p>\n<p><b>Watch Those Margins</b></p>\n<p>Past dips in forecasted profit margins have lined up with pull-backs in equities.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dbda2c0b9394d518fdc8af7d693c8f3\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The difference between the PPI and CPI suggests companies are unable to pass cost increases on to consumers. The spread between the two fell to a record low of minus 5.3 percentage points in April, and is still strongly inverted at minus 4.1 percentage points. Over the last 30 years, the operating margin for the S&amp;P 500 narrowed 6.5 percentage points on average one year after the gap fell below minus 2 percentage points. Not only that, but in the year after the spread breached minus 2 percentage points, the S&amp;P fell 2.5% on average.</p>\n<p>Analysts are getting nervous. They have cut their margin estimates for a quarter of S&amp;P 500 members in the last three months. Their stocks were down 0.63%, compared with a gain of 2.20% for the index and a 3.30% increase for companies with rising margin forecasts. Slicing the index into quintiles based on changes in operating margin shows that companies with the largest declines had a median stock-price decline of 0.5%, versus a gain of 3.9% for those with the greatest expansion in consensus estimates.</p>\n<p>Industries with the most negative margin pressures are likely to be those that investors historically consider “defensive,” such as health care, utilities and consumer staples. Large companies involved in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences, household and personal products, and utilities have historically fared worst when producer prices outrun consumer prices, and these are where margin forecasts gave dropped the most over the last three months. Margins forecasts continue to rise for the more cyclically-oriented segments of the equity market, with media, consumer services, transportation and oil and gas industries having the largest gains.</p>\n<p><b>Winners and Losers</b></p>\n<p>Cyclically-oriented sectors are relatively immune from broad profit margin compression.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884366efc825eccec2878fcd4b3f0912\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"533\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Though consensus expectations imply smooth sailing, companies are set up for a more challenging margin outlook as revenue growth rates likely fade, but inflation pressures remain relatively high given persistent uncertainty in the supply chain. Against this backdrop, currently selective industry margin weaknesses may start to spread to more industries, resulting in degradation of margin forecasts for the index at large. Given these estimates are a strong strong leading indicator of stock-price direction, margin trends may be a critical risk to the equity market in the months ahead.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-02 19:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their customers.\n\nWant to know where the S&P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196763976","content_text":"The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their customers.\n\nWant to know where the S&P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? Take a look at profit margins.\nOperating margin forecasts are a strong leading indicator of stock prices. A decline in such outlooks preceded routs in the S&P 500 in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2020. What’s concerning now is that analysts have stopped raising their forecasts, and if they begin to lower them, it's likely to lead to a dip in the broader market again. And it’s not like there’s a lot of room for further improvement in margins, defined as earnings before interest and taxes divided by sales. The consensus among analysts is that they will expand to 16.7% over the next 12 months, topping the previous record of 16.4% set in 2018.\nThe relationship between S&P 500 profitability and inflation indicators is murky at best, but recent spikes in the producer price index and a smaller increase in the consumer price index is enough to raise a caution flag for equity margin expansion potential for the next few quarters. At its peak in April, the PPI rose 9.5% from a year earlier, almost 3 standard deviations above its average over the past 30 years. (It rose 9.4% in June.) From 2010 to 2019, the median estimate of where operating margins would be 12 months into the future for S&P 500 members were negatively correlated to changes in PPI. The current coefficient of minus 0.22 suggests gains in corporate profitability are likely to stall or even fall as producer prices continue to rise.\nWatch Those Margins\nPast dips in forecasted profit margins have lined up with pull-backs in equities.\nThe difference between the PPI and CPI suggests companies are unable to pass cost increases on to consumers. The spread between the two fell to a record low of minus 5.3 percentage points in April, and is still strongly inverted at minus 4.1 percentage points. Over the last 30 years, the operating margin for the S&P 500 narrowed 6.5 percentage points on average one year after the gap fell below minus 2 percentage points. Not only that, but in the year after the spread breached minus 2 percentage points, the S&P fell 2.5% on average.\nAnalysts are getting nervous. They have cut their margin estimates for a quarter of S&P 500 members in the last three months. Their stocks were down 0.63%, compared with a gain of 2.20% for the index and a 3.30% increase for companies with rising margin forecasts. Slicing the index into quintiles based on changes in operating margin shows that companies with the largest declines had a median stock-price decline of 0.5%, versus a gain of 3.9% for those with the greatest expansion in consensus estimates.\nIndustries with the most negative margin pressures are likely to be those that investors historically consider “defensive,” such as health care, utilities and consumer staples. Large companies involved in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences, household and personal products, and utilities have historically fared worst when producer prices outrun consumer prices, and these are where margin forecasts gave dropped the most over the last three months. Margins forecasts continue to rise for the more cyclically-oriented segments of the equity market, with media, consumer services, transportation and oil and gas industries having the largest gains.\nWinners and Losers\nCyclically-oriented sectors are relatively immune from broad profit margin compression.\nThough consensus expectations imply smooth sailing, companies are set up for a more challenging margin outlook as revenue growth rates likely fade, but inflation pressures remain relatively high given persistent uncertainty in the supply chain. Against this backdrop, currently selective industry margin weaknesses may start to spread to more industries, resulting in degradation of margin forecasts for the index at large. Given these estimates are a strong strong leading indicator of stock-price direction, margin trends may be a critical risk to the equity market in the months ahead.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":804112374,"gmtCreate":1627945265898,"gmtModify":1703498159394,"author":{"id":"3568026014768326","authorId":"3568026014768326","name":"兔气扬眉","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/58fe9e54c89b636f385d436c63c3e4f2","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3568026014768326","authorIdStr":"3568026014768326"},"htmlText":"Like n comment","listText":"Like n comment","text":"Like n comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/804112374","repostId":1196763976,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196763976","pubTimestamp":1627903466,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196763976?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-02 19:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"When Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196763976","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their","content":"<blockquote>\n The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost&nbsp;increases to their customers.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Want to know where the S&amp;P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? Take a look at profit margins.</p>\n<p>Operating margin forecasts are a strong leading indicator of stock prices. A decline in such outlooks preceded routs in the S&amp;P 500 in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2020. What’s concerning now is that analysts have stopped raising their forecasts, and if they begin to lower them, it's likely to lead to a dip in the broader market again. And it’s not like there’s a lot of room for further improvement in margins, defined as earnings before interest and taxes divided by sales. The consensus among analysts is that they will expand to 16.7% over the next 12 months, topping the previous record of 16.4% set in 2018.</p>\n<p>The relationship between S&amp;P 500 profitability and inflation indicators is murky at best, but recent spikes in the producer price index and a smaller increase in the consumer price index is enough to raise a caution flag for equity margin expansion potential for the next few quarters. At its peak in April, the PPI rose 9.5% from a year earlier, almost 3 standard deviations above its average over the past 30 years. (It rose 9.4% in June.) From 2010 to 2019, the median estimate of where operating margins would be 12 months into the future for S&amp;P 500 members were negatively correlated to changes in PPI. The current coefficient of minus 0.22 suggests gains in corporate profitability are likely to stall or even fall as producer prices continue to rise.</p>\n<p><b>Watch Those Margins</b></p>\n<p>Past dips in forecasted profit margins have lined up with pull-backs in equities.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dbda2c0b9394d518fdc8af7d693c8f3\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The difference between the PPI and CPI suggests companies are unable to pass cost increases on to consumers. The spread between the two fell to a record low of minus 5.3 percentage points in April, and is still strongly inverted at minus 4.1 percentage points. Over the last 30 years, the operating margin for the S&amp;P 500 narrowed 6.5 percentage points on average one year after the gap fell below minus 2 percentage points. Not only that, but in the year after the spread breached minus 2 percentage points, the S&amp;P fell 2.5% on average.</p>\n<p>Analysts are getting nervous. They have cut their margin estimates for a quarter of S&amp;P 500 members in the last three months. Their stocks were down 0.63%, compared with a gain of 2.20% for the index and a 3.30% increase for companies with rising margin forecasts. Slicing the index into quintiles based on changes in operating margin shows that companies with the largest declines had a median stock-price decline of 0.5%, versus a gain of 3.9% for those with the greatest expansion in consensus estimates.</p>\n<p>Industries with the most negative margin pressures are likely to be those that investors historically consider “defensive,” such as health care, utilities and consumer staples. Large companies involved in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences, household and personal products, and utilities have historically fared worst when producer prices outrun consumer prices, and these are where margin forecasts gave dropped the most over the last three months. Margins forecasts continue to rise for the more cyclically-oriented segments of the equity market, with media, consumer services, transportation and oil and gas industries having the largest gains.</p>\n<p><b>Winners and Losers</b></p>\n<p>Cyclically-oriented sectors are relatively immune from broad profit margin compression.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884366efc825eccec2878fcd4b3f0912\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"533\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Though consensus expectations imply smooth sailing, companies are set up for a more challenging margin outlook as revenue growth rates likely fade, but inflation pressures remain relatively high given persistent uncertainty in the supply chain. Against this backdrop, currently selective industry margin weaknesses may start to spread to more industries, resulting in degradation of margin forecasts for the index at large. Given these estimates are a strong strong leading indicator of stock-price direction, margin trends may be a critical risk to the equity market in the months ahead.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-02 19:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their customers.\n\nWant to know where the S&P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196763976","content_text":"The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their customers.\n\nWant to know where the S&P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? Take a look at profit margins.\nOperating margin forecasts are a strong leading indicator of stock prices. A decline in such outlooks preceded routs in the S&P 500 in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2020. What’s concerning now is that analysts have stopped raising their forecasts, and if they begin to lower them, it's likely to lead to a dip in the broader market again. And it’s not like there’s a lot of room for further improvement in margins, defined as earnings before interest and taxes divided by sales. The consensus among analysts is that they will expand to 16.7% over the next 12 months, topping the previous record of 16.4% set in 2018.\nThe relationship between S&P 500 profitability and inflation indicators is murky at best, but recent spikes in the producer price index and a smaller increase in the consumer price index is enough to raise a caution flag for equity margin expansion potential for the next few quarters. At its peak in April, the PPI rose 9.5% from a year earlier, almost 3 standard deviations above its average over the past 30 years. (It rose 9.4% in June.) From 2010 to 2019, the median estimate of where operating margins would be 12 months into the future for S&P 500 members were negatively correlated to changes in PPI. The current coefficient of minus 0.22 suggests gains in corporate profitability are likely to stall or even fall as producer prices continue to rise.\nWatch Those Margins\nPast dips in forecasted profit margins have lined up with pull-backs in equities.\nThe difference between the PPI and CPI suggests companies are unable to pass cost increases on to consumers. The spread between the two fell to a record low of minus 5.3 percentage points in April, and is still strongly inverted at minus 4.1 percentage points. Over the last 30 years, the operating margin for the S&P 500 narrowed 6.5 percentage points on average one year after the gap fell below minus 2 percentage points. Not only that, but in the year after the spread breached minus 2 percentage points, the S&P fell 2.5% on average.\nAnalysts are getting nervous. They have cut their margin estimates for a quarter of S&P 500 members in the last three months. Their stocks were down 0.63%, compared with a gain of 2.20% for the index and a 3.30% increase for companies with rising margin forecasts. Slicing the index into quintiles based on changes in operating margin shows that companies with the largest declines had a median stock-price decline of 0.5%, versus a gain of 3.9% for those with the greatest expansion in consensus estimates.\nIndustries with the most negative margin pressures are likely to be those that investors historically consider “defensive,” such as health care, utilities and consumer staples. Large companies involved in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences, household and personal products, and utilities have historically fared worst when producer prices outrun consumer prices, and these are where margin forecasts gave dropped the most over the last three months. Margins forecasts continue to rise for the more cyclically-oriented segments of the equity market, with media, consumer services, transportation and oil and gas industries having the largest gains.\nWinners and Losers\nCyclically-oriented sectors are relatively immune from broad profit margin compression.\nThough consensus expectations imply smooth sailing, companies are set up for a more challenging margin outlook as revenue growth rates likely fade, but inflation pressures remain relatively high given persistent uncertainty in the supply chain. Against this backdrop, currently selective industry margin weaknesses may start to spread to more industries, resulting in degradation of margin forecasts for the index at large. Given these estimates are a strong strong leading indicator of stock-price direction, margin trends may be a critical risk to the equity market in the months ahead.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5423989,"gmtCreate":1628071205650,"gmtModify":1663231917029,"authorId":3568026014768326,"author":{"id":3568026014768326,"idStr":"3568026014768326","authorId":3568026014768326,"name":"兔气扬眉","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/58fe9e54c89b636f385d436c63c3e4f2","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":804112374,"type":1,"supId":5407005,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"},{"id":5407005,"gmtCreate":1627945350107,"gmtModify":1663231840140,"authorId":3567307840510045,"author":{"id":3567307840510045,"idStr":"3567307840510045","authorId":3567307840510045,"name":"JeremyKok","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01b03a485f83b6b2615fad8ac9b87bf4","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":804112374,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"hi. please like and comment back. thank you.","text":"hi. please like and comment back. thank you.","html":"hi. please like and comment back. thank you."}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":804118252,"gmtCreate":1627945140376,"gmtModify":1703498156246,"author":{"id":"4087771643270940","authorId":"4087771643270940","name":"seojun","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bd9ce06b0a58d0a81582641f6566970","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4087771643270940","authorIdStr":"4087771643270940"},"htmlText":"Oh noooo","listText":"Oh noooo","text":"Oh noooo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/804118252","repostId":1196763976,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196763976","pubTimestamp":1627903466,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196763976?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-02 19:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"When Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196763976","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their","content":"<blockquote>\n The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost&nbsp;increases to their customers.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Want to know where the S&amp;P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? Take a look at profit margins.</p>\n<p>Operating margin forecasts are a strong leading indicator of stock prices. A decline in such outlooks preceded routs in the S&amp;P 500 in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2020. What’s concerning now is that analysts have stopped raising their forecasts, and if they begin to lower them, it's likely to lead to a dip in the broader market again. And it’s not like there’s a lot of room for further improvement in margins, defined as earnings before interest and taxes divided by sales. The consensus among analysts is that they will expand to 16.7% over the next 12 months, topping the previous record of 16.4% set in 2018.</p>\n<p>The relationship between S&amp;P 500 profitability and inflation indicators is murky at best, but recent spikes in the producer price index and a smaller increase in the consumer price index is enough to raise a caution flag for equity margin expansion potential for the next few quarters. At its peak in April, the PPI rose 9.5% from a year earlier, almost 3 standard deviations above its average over the past 30 years. (It rose 9.4% in June.) From 2010 to 2019, the median estimate of where operating margins would be 12 months into the future for S&amp;P 500 members were negatively correlated to changes in PPI. The current coefficient of minus 0.22 suggests gains in corporate profitability are likely to stall or even fall as producer prices continue to rise.</p>\n<p><b>Watch Those Margins</b></p>\n<p>Past dips in forecasted profit margins have lined up with pull-backs in equities.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dbda2c0b9394d518fdc8af7d693c8f3\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The difference between the PPI and CPI suggests companies are unable to pass cost increases on to consumers. The spread between the two fell to a record low of minus 5.3 percentage points in April, and is still strongly inverted at minus 4.1 percentage points. Over the last 30 years, the operating margin for the S&amp;P 500 narrowed 6.5 percentage points on average one year after the gap fell below minus 2 percentage points. Not only that, but in the year after the spread breached minus 2 percentage points, the S&amp;P fell 2.5% on average.</p>\n<p>Analysts are getting nervous. They have cut their margin estimates for a quarter of S&amp;P 500 members in the last three months. Their stocks were down 0.63%, compared with a gain of 2.20% for the index and a 3.30% increase for companies with rising margin forecasts. Slicing the index into quintiles based on changes in operating margin shows that companies with the largest declines had a median stock-price decline of 0.5%, versus a gain of 3.9% for those with the greatest expansion in consensus estimates.</p>\n<p>Industries with the most negative margin pressures are likely to be those that investors historically consider “defensive,” such as health care, utilities and consumer staples. Large companies involved in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences, household and personal products, and utilities have historically fared worst when producer prices outrun consumer prices, and these are where margin forecasts gave dropped the most over the last three months. Margins forecasts continue to rise for the more cyclically-oriented segments of the equity market, with media, consumer services, transportation and oil and gas industries having the largest gains.</p>\n<p><b>Winners and Losers</b></p>\n<p>Cyclically-oriented sectors are relatively immune from broad profit margin compression.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884366efc825eccec2878fcd4b3f0912\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"533\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Though consensus expectations imply smooth sailing, companies are set up for a more challenging margin outlook as revenue growth rates likely fade, but inflation pressures remain relatively high given persistent uncertainty in the supply chain. Against this backdrop, currently selective industry margin weaknesses may start to spread to more industries, resulting in degradation of margin forecasts for the index at large. Given these estimates are a strong strong leading indicator of stock-price direction, margin trends may be a critical risk to the equity market in the months ahead.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-02 19:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their customers.\n\nWant to know where the S&P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196763976","content_text":"The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their customers.\n\nWant to know where the S&P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? Take a look at profit margins.\nOperating margin forecasts are a strong leading indicator of stock prices. A decline in such outlooks preceded routs in the S&P 500 in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2020. What’s concerning now is that analysts have stopped raising their forecasts, and if they begin to lower them, it's likely to lead to a dip in the broader market again. And it’s not like there’s a lot of room for further improvement in margins, defined as earnings before interest and taxes divided by sales. The consensus among analysts is that they will expand to 16.7% over the next 12 months, topping the previous record of 16.4% set in 2018.\nThe relationship between S&P 500 profitability and inflation indicators is murky at best, but recent spikes in the producer price index and a smaller increase in the consumer price index is enough to raise a caution flag for equity margin expansion potential for the next few quarters. At its peak in April, the PPI rose 9.5% from a year earlier, almost 3 standard deviations above its average over the past 30 years. (It rose 9.4% in June.) From 2010 to 2019, the median estimate of where operating margins would be 12 months into the future for S&P 500 members were negatively correlated to changes in PPI. The current coefficient of minus 0.22 suggests gains in corporate profitability are likely to stall or even fall as producer prices continue to rise.\nWatch Those Margins\nPast dips in forecasted profit margins have lined up with pull-backs in equities.\nThe difference between the PPI and CPI suggests companies are unable to pass cost increases on to consumers. The spread between the two fell to a record low of minus 5.3 percentage points in April, and is still strongly inverted at minus 4.1 percentage points. Over the last 30 years, the operating margin for the S&P 500 narrowed 6.5 percentage points on average one year after the gap fell below minus 2 percentage points. Not only that, but in the year after the spread breached minus 2 percentage points, the S&P fell 2.5% on average.\nAnalysts are getting nervous. They have cut their margin estimates for a quarter of S&P 500 members in the last three months. Their stocks were down 0.63%, compared with a gain of 2.20% for the index and a 3.30% increase for companies with rising margin forecasts. Slicing the index into quintiles based on changes in operating margin shows that companies with the largest declines had a median stock-price decline of 0.5%, versus a gain of 3.9% for those with the greatest expansion in consensus estimates.\nIndustries with the most negative margin pressures are likely to be those that investors historically consider “defensive,” such as health care, utilities and consumer staples. Large companies involved in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences, household and personal products, and utilities have historically fared worst when producer prices outrun consumer prices, and these are where margin forecasts gave dropped the most over the last three months. Margins forecasts continue to rise for the more cyclically-oriented segments of the equity market, with media, consumer services, transportation and oil and gas industries having the largest gains.\nWinners and Losers\nCyclically-oriented sectors are relatively immune from broad profit margin compression.\nThough consensus expectations imply smooth sailing, companies are set up for a more challenging margin outlook as revenue growth rates likely fade, but inflation pressures remain relatively high given persistent uncertainty in the supply chain. Against this backdrop, currently selective industry margin weaknesses may start to spread to more industries, resulting in degradation of margin forecasts for the index at large. Given these estimates are a strong strong leading indicator of stock-price direction, margin trends may be a critical risk to the equity market in the months ahead.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":804134724,"gmtCreate":1627944739568,"gmtModify":1703498147607,"author":{"id":"3582963095283492","authorId":"3582963095283492","name":"replaygoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d47b21291424a3d55039334a8de5cdb9","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582963095283492","authorIdStr":"3582963095283492"},"htmlText":"noted","listText":"noted","text":"noted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/804134724","repostId":1196763976,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196763976","pubTimestamp":1627903466,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196763976?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-02 19:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"When Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196763976","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their","content":"<blockquote>\n The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost&nbsp;increases to their customers.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Want to know where the S&amp;P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? Take a look at profit margins.</p>\n<p>Operating margin forecasts are a strong leading indicator of stock prices. A decline in such outlooks preceded routs in the S&amp;P 500 in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2020. What’s concerning now is that analysts have stopped raising their forecasts, and if they begin to lower them, it's likely to lead to a dip in the broader market again. And it’s not like there’s a lot of room for further improvement in margins, defined as earnings before interest and taxes divided by sales. The consensus among analysts is that they will expand to 16.7% over the next 12 months, topping the previous record of 16.4% set in 2018.</p>\n<p>The relationship between S&amp;P 500 profitability and inflation indicators is murky at best, but recent spikes in the producer price index and a smaller increase in the consumer price index is enough to raise a caution flag for equity margin expansion potential for the next few quarters. At its peak in April, the PPI rose 9.5% from a year earlier, almost 3 standard deviations above its average over the past 30 years. (It rose 9.4% in June.) From 2010 to 2019, the median estimate of where operating margins would be 12 months into the future for S&amp;P 500 members were negatively correlated to changes in PPI. The current coefficient of minus 0.22 suggests gains in corporate profitability are likely to stall or even fall as producer prices continue to rise.</p>\n<p><b>Watch Those Margins</b></p>\n<p>Past dips in forecasted profit margins have lined up with pull-backs in equities.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dbda2c0b9394d518fdc8af7d693c8f3\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The difference between the PPI and CPI suggests companies are unable to pass cost increases on to consumers. The spread between the two fell to a record low of minus 5.3 percentage points in April, and is still strongly inverted at minus 4.1 percentage points. Over the last 30 years, the operating margin for the S&amp;P 500 narrowed 6.5 percentage points on average one year after the gap fell below minus 2 percentage points. Not only that, but in the year after the spread breached minus 2 percentage points, the S&amp;P fell 2.5% on average.</p>\n<p>Analysts are getting nervous. They have cut their margin estimates for a quarter of S&amp;P 500 members in the last three months. Their stocks were down 0.63%, compared with a gain of 2.20% for the index and a 3.30% increase for companies with rising margin forecasts. Slicing the index into quintiles based on changes in operating margin shows that companies with the largest declines had a median stock-price decline of 0.5%, versus a gain of 3.9% for those with the greatest expansion in consensus estimates.</p>\n<p>Industries with the most negative margin pressures are likely to be those that investors historically consider “defensive,” such as health care, utilities and consumer staples. Large companies involved in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences, household and personal products, and utilities have historically fared worst when producer prices outrun consumer prices, and these are where margin forecasts gave dropped the most over the last three months. Margins forecasts continue to rise for the more cyclically-oriented segments of the equity market, with media, consumer services, transportation and oil and gas industries having the largest gains.</p>\n<p><b>Winners and Losers</b></p>\n<p>Cyclically-oriented sectors are relatively immune from broad profit margin compression.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884366efc825eccec2878fcd4b3f0912\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"533\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Though consensus expectations imply smooth sailing, companies are set up for a more challenging margin outlook as revenue growth rates likely fade, but inflation pressures remain relatively high given persistent uncertainty in the supply chain. Against this backdrop, currently selective industry margin weaknesses may start to spread to more industries, resulting in degradation of margin forecasts for the index at large. Given these estimates are a strong strong leading indicator of stock-price direction, margin trends may be a critical risk to the equity market in the months ahead.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-02 19:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their customers.\n\nWant to know where the S&P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196763976","content_text":"The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their customers.\n\nWant to know where the S&P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? Take a look at profit margins.\nOperating margin forecasts are a strong leading indicator of stock prices. A decline in such outlooks preceded routs in the S&P 500 in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2020. What’s concerning now is that analysts have stopped raising their forecasts, and if they begin to lower them, it's likely to lead to a dip in the broader market again. And it’s not like there’s a lot of room for further improvement in margins, defined as earnings before interest and taxes divided by sales. The consensus among analysts is that they will expand to 16.7% over the next 12 months, topping the previous record of 16.4% set in 2018.\nThe relationship between S&P 500 profitability and inflation indicators is murky at best, but recent spikes in the producer price index and a smaller increase in the consumer price index is enough to raise a caution flag for equity margin expansion potential for the next few quarters. At its peak in April, the PPI rose 9.5% from a year earlier, almost 3 standard deviations above its average over the past 30 years. (It rose 9.4% in June.) From 2010 to 2019, the median estimate of where operating margins would be 12 months into the future for S&P 500 members were negatively correlated to changes in PPI. The current coefficient of minus 0.22 suggests gains in corporate profitability are likely to stall or even fall as producer prices continue to rise.\nWatch Those Margins\nPast dips in forecasted profit margins have lined up with pull-backs in equities.\nThe difference between the PPI and CPI suggests companies are unable to pass cost increases on to consumers. The spread between the two fell to a record low of minus 5.3 percentage points in April, and is still strongly inverted at minus 4.1 percentage points. Over the last 30 years, the operating margin for the S&P 500 narrowed 6.5 percentage points on average one year after the gap fell below minus 2 percentage points. Not only that, but in the year after the spread breached minus 2 percentage points, the S&P fell 2.5% on average.\nAnalysts are getting nervous. They have cut their margin estimates for a quarter of S&P 500 members in the last three months. Their stocks were down 0.63%, compared with a gain of 2.20% for the index and a 3.30% increase for companies with rising margin forecasts. Slicing the index into quintiles based on changes in operating margin shows that companies with the largest declines had a median stock-price decline of 0.5%, versus a gain of 3.9% for those with the greatest expansion in consensus estimates.\nIndustries with the most negative margin pressures are likely to be those that investors historically consider “defensive,” such as health care, utilities and consumer staples. Large companies involved in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences, household and personal products, and utilities have historically fared worst when producer prices outrun consumer prices, and these are where margin forecasts gave dropped the most over the last three months. Margins forecasts continue to rise for the more cyclically-oriented segments of the equity market, with media, consumer services, transportation and oil and gas industries having the largest gains.\nWinners and Losers\nCyclically-oriented sectors are relatively immune from broad profit margin compression.\nThough consensus expectations imply smooth sailing, companies are set up for a more challenging margin outlook as revenue growth rates likely fade, but inflation pressures remain relatively high given persistent uncertainty in the supply chain. Against this backdrop, currently selective industry margin weaknesses may start to spread to more industries, resulting in degradation of margin forecasts for the index at large. Given these estimates are a strong strong leading indicator of stock-price direction, margin trends may be a critical risk to the equity market in the months ahead.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":804194549,"gmtCreate":1627944165781,"gmtModify":1703498132529,"author":{"id":"3574381076586256","authorId":"3574381076586256","name":"KYHBKO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3bcbc7f9a10836dea92afc94bf39b5b","vip":2,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574381076586256","authorIdStr":"3574381076586256"},"htmlText":"long term strategy like dollar cost averaging helps in such cases. if we hold long enough (for stocks with good fundamentals), time will do her compounding magic. in such cases,&nbsp;time in the market is more important than timing the market. happy trading all","listText":"long term strategy like dollar cost averaging helps in such cases. if we hold long enough (for stocks with good fundamentals), time will do her compounding magic. in such cases,&nbsp;time in the market is more important than timing the market. happy trading all","text":"long term strategy like dollar cost averaging helps in such cases. if we hold long enough (for stocks with good fundamentals), time will do her compounding magic. in such cases, time in the market is more important than timing the market. happy trading all","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/804194549","repostId":1196763976,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196763976","pubTimestamp":1627903466,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196763976?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-02 19:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"When Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196763976","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their","content":"<blockquote>\n The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost&nbsp;increases to their customers.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Want to know where the S&amp;P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? Take a look at profit margins.</p>\n<p>Operating margin forecasts are a strong leading indicator of stock prices. A decline in such outlooks preceded routs in the S&amp;P 500 in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2020. What’s concerning now is that analysts have stopped raising their forecasts, and if they begin to lower them, it's likely to lead to a dip in the broader market again. And it’s not like there’s a lot of room for further improvement in margins, defined as earnings before interest and taxes divided by sales. The consensus among analysts is that they will expand to 16.7% over the next 12 months, topping the previous record of 16.4% set in 2018.</p>\n<p>The relationship between S&amp;P 500 profitability and inflation indicators is murky at best, but recent spikes in the producer price index and a smaller increase in the consumer price index is enough to raise a caution flag for equity margin expansion potential for the next few quarters. At its peak in April, the PPI rose 9.5% from a year earlier, almost 3 standard deviations above its average over the past 30 years. (It rose 9.4% in June.) From 2010 to 2019, the median estimate of where operating margins would be 12 months into the future for S&amp;P 500 members were negatively correlated to changes in PPI. The current coefficient of minus 0.22 suggests gains in corporate profitability are likely to stall or even fall as producer prices continue to rise.</p>\n<p><b>Watch Those Margins</b></p>\n<p>Past dips in forecasted profit margins have lined up with pull-backs in equities.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dbda2c0b9394d518fdc8af7d693c8f3\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The difference between the PPI and CPI suggests companies are unable to pass cost increases on to consumers. The spread between the two fell to a record low of minus 5.3 percentage points in April, and is still strongly inverted at minus 4.1 percentage points. Over the last 30 years, the operating margin for the S&amp;P 500 narrowed 6.5 percentage points on average one year after the gap fell below minus 2 percentage points. Not only that, but in the year after the spread breached minus 2 percentage points, the S&amp;P fell 2.5% on average.</p>\n<p>Analysts are getting nervous. They have cut their margin estimates for a quarter of S&amp;P 500 members in the last three months. Their stocks were down 0.63%, compared with a gain of 2.20% for the index and a 3.30% increase for companies with rising margin forecasts. Slicing the index into quintiles based on changes in operating margin shows that companies with the largest declines had a median stock-price decline of 0.5%, versus a gain of 3.9% for those with the greatest expansion in consensus estimates.</p>\n<p>Industries with the most negative margin pressures are likely to be those that investors historically consider “defensive,” such as health care, utilities and consumer staples. Large companies involved in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences, household and personal products, and utilities have historically fared worst when producer prices outrun consumer prices, and these are where margin forecasts gave dropped the most over the last three months. Margins forecasts continue to rise for the more cyclically-oriented segments of the equity market, with media, consumer services, transportation and oil and gas industries having the largest gains.</p>\n<p><b>Winners and Losers</b></p>\n<p>Cyclically-oriented sectors are relatively immune from broad profit margin compression.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884366efc825eccec2878fcd4b3f0912\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"533\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Though consensus expectations imply smooth sailing, companies are set up for a more challenging margin outlook as revenue growth rates likely fade, but inflation pressures remain relatively high given persistent uncertainty in the supply chain. Against this backdrop, currently selective industry margin weaknesses may start to spread to more industries, resulting in degradation of margin forecasts for the index at large. Given these estimates are a strong strong leading indicator of stock-price direction, margin trends may be a critical risk to the equity market in the months ahead.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-02 19:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their customers.\n\nWant to know where the S&P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196763976","content_text":"The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their customers.\n\nWant to know where the S&P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? Take a look at profit margins.\nOperating margin forecasts are a strong leading indicator of stock prices. A decline in such outlooks preceded routs in the S&P 500 in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2020. What’s concerning now is that analysts have stopped raising their forecasts, and if they begin to lower them, it's likely to lead to a dip in the broader market again. And it’s not like there’s a lot of room for further improvement in margins, defined as earnings before interest and taxes divided by sales. The consensus among analysts is that they will expand to 16.7% over the next 12 months, topping the previous record of 16.4% set in 2018.\nThe relationship between S&P 500 profitability and inflation indicators is murky at best, but recent spikes in the producer price index and a smaller increase in the consumer price index is enough to raise a caution flag for equity margin expansion potential for the next few quarters. At its peak in April, the PPI rose 9.5% from a year earlier, almost 3 standard deviations above its average over the past 30 years. (It rose 9.4% in June.) From 2010 to 2019, the median estimate of where operating margins would be 12 months into the future for S&P 500 members were negatively correlated to changes in PPI. The current coefficient of minus 0.22 suggests gains in corporate profitability are likely to stall or even fall as producer prices continue to rise.\nWatch Those Margins\nPast dips in forecasted profit margins have lined up with pull-backs in equities.\nThe difference between the PPI and CPI suggests companies are unable to pass cost increases on to consumers. The spread between the two fell to a record low of minus 5.3 percentage points in April, and is still strongly inverted at minus 4.1 percentage points. Over the last 30 years, the operating margin for the S&P 500 narrowed 6.5 percentage points on average one year after the gap fell below minus 2 percentage points. Not only that, but in the year after the spread breached minus 2 percentage points, the S&P fell 2.5% on average.\nAnalysts are getting nervous. They have cut their margin estimates for a quarter of S&P 500 members in the last three months. Their stocks were down 0.63%, compared with a gain of 2.20% for the index and a 3.30% increase for companies with rising margin forecasts. Slicing the index into quintiles based on changes in operating margin shows that companies with the largest declines had a median stock-price decline of 0.5%, versus a gain of 3.9% for those with the greatest expansion in consensus estimates.\nIndustries with the most negative margin pressures are likely to be those that investors historically consider “defensive,” such as health care, utilities and consumer staples. Large companies involved in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences, household and personal products, and utilities have historically fared worst when producer prices outrun consumer prices, and these are where margin forecasts gave dropped the most over the last three months. Margins forecasts continue to rise for the more cyclically-oriented segments of the equity market, with media, consumer services, transportation and oil and gas industries having the largest gains.\nWinners and Losers\nCyclically-oriented sectors are relatively immune from broad profit margin compression.\nThough consensus expectations imply smooth sailing, companies are set up for a more challenging margin outlook as revenue growth rates likely fade, but inflation pressures remain relatively high given persistent uncertainty in the supply chain. Against this backdrop, currently selective industry margin weaknesses may start to spread to more industries, resulting in degradation of margin forecasts for the index at large. Given these estimates are a strong strong leading indicator of stock-price direction, margin trends may be a critical risk to the equity market in the months ahead.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5407132,"gmtCreate":1627945951042,"gmtModify":1663231840148,"authorId":3586131488444401,"author":{"id":3586131488444401,"idStr":"3586131488444401","authorId":3586131488444401,"name":"STKG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/730c2482b43ac1909a601868b378a6e4","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":804194549,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>agree</u>","text":"<u>agree</u>","html":"<u>agree</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":804198612,"gmtCreate":1627943914736,"gmtModify":1703498126260,"author":{"id":"3568773327054096","authorId":"3568773327054096","name":"Unknown934","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b3574572ddefc308a01b8cc301667c4","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f84d87792f02cf78e80ee34979fd31e5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3568773327054096","authorIdStr":"3568773327054096"},"htmlText":"Help to like","listText":"Help to like","text":"Help to like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/804198612","repostId":1196763976,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196763976","pubTimestamp":1627903466,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196763976?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-02 19:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"When Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196763976","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their","content":"<blockquote>\n The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost&nbsp;increases to their customers.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Want to know where the S&amp;P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? Take a look at profit margins.</p>\n<p>Operating margin forecasts are a strong leading indicator of stock prices. A decline in such outlooks preceded routs in the S&amp;P 500 in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2020. What’s concerning now is that analysts have stopped raising their forecasts, and if they begin to lower them, it's likely to lead to a dip in the broader market again. And it’s not like there’s a lot of room for further improvement in margins, defined as earnings before interest and taxes divided by sales. The consensus among analysts is that they will expand to 16.7% over the next 12 months, topping the previous record of 16.4% set in 2018.</p>\n<p>The relationship between S&amp;P 500 profitability and inflation indicators is murky at best, but recent spikes in the producer price index and a smaller increase in the consumer price index is enough to raise a caution flag for equity margin expansion potential for the next few quarters. At its peak in April, the PPI rose 9.5% from a year earlier, almost 3 standard deviations above its average over the past 30 years. (It rose 9.4% in June.) From 2010 to 2019, the median estimate of where operating margins would be 12 months into the future for S&amp;P 500 members were negatively correlated to changes in PPI. The current coefficient of minus 0.22 suggests gains in corporate profitability are likely to stall or even fall as producer prices continue to rise.</p>\n<p><b>Watch Those Margins</b></p>\n<p>Past dips in forecasted profit margins have lined up with pull-backs in equities.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dbda2c0b9394d518fdc8af7d693c8f3\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The difference between the PPI and CPI suggests companies are unable to pass cost increases on to consumers. The spread between the two fell to a record low of minus 5.3 percentage points in April, and is still strongly inverted at minus 4.1 percentage points. Over the last 30 years, the operating margin for the S&amp;P 500 narrowed 6.5 percentage points on average one year after the gap fell below minus 2 percentage points. Not only that, but in the year after the spread breached minus 2 percentage points, the S&amp;P fell 2.5% on average.</p>\n<p>Analysts are getting nervous. They have cut their margin estimates for a quarter of S&amp;P 500 members in the last three months. Their stocks were down 0.63%, compared with a gain of 2.20% for the index and a 3.30% increase for companies with rising margin forecasts. Slicing the index into quintiles based on changes in operating margin shows that companies with the largest declines had a median stock-price decline of 0.5%, versus a gain of 3.9% for those with the greatest expansion in consensus estimates.</p>\n<p>Industries with the most negative margin pressures are likely to be those that investors historically consider “defensive,” such as health care, utilities and consumer staples. Large companies involved in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences, household and personal products, and utilities have historically fared worst when producer prices outrun consumer prices, and these are where margin forecasts gave dropped the most over the last three months. Margins forecasts continue to rise for the more cyclically-oriented segments of the equity market, with media, consumer services, transportation and oil and gas industries having the largest gains.</p>\n<p><b>Winners and Losers</b></p>\n<p>Cyclically-oriented sectors are relatively immune from broad profit margin compression.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884366efc825eccec2878fcd4b3f0912\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"533\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Though consensus expectations imply smooth sailing, companies are set up for a more challenging margin outlook as revenue growth rates likely fade, but inflation pressures remain relatively high given persistent uncertainty in the supply chain. Against this backdrop, currently selective industry margin weaknesses may start to spread to more industries, resulting in degradation of margin forecasts for the index at large. Given these estimates are a strong strong leading indicator of stock-price direction, margin trends may be a critical risk to the equity market in the months ahead.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-02 19:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their customers.\n\nWant to know where the S&P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196763976","content_text":"The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their customers.\n\nWant to know where the S&P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? Take a look at profit margins.\nOperating margin forecasts are a strong leading indicator of stock prices. A decline in such outlooks preceded routs in the S&P 500 in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2020. What’s concerning now is that analysts have stopped raising their forecasts, and if they begin to lower them, it's likely to lead to a dip in the broader market again. And it’s not like there’s a lot of room for further improvement in margins, defined as earnings before interest and taxes divided by sales. The consensus among analysts is that they will expand to 16.7% over the next 12 months, topping the previous record of 16.4% set in 2018.\nThe relationship between S&P 500 profitability and inflation indicators is murky at best, but recent spikes in the producer price index and a smaller increase in the consumer price index is enough to raise a caution flag for equity margin expansion potential for the next few quarters. At its peak in April, the PPI rose 9.5% from a year earlier, almost 3 standard deviations above its average over the past 30 years. (It rose 9.4% in June.) From 2010 to 2019, the median estimate of where operating margins would be 12 months into the future for S&P 500 members were negatively correlated to changes in PPI. The current coefficient of minus 0.22 suggests gains in corporate profitability are likely to stall or even fall as producer prices continue to rise.\nWatch Those Margins\nPast dips in forecasted profit margins have lined up with pull-backs in equities.\nThe difference between the PPI and CPI suggests companies are unable to pass cost increases on to consumers. The spread between the two fell to a record low of minus 5.3 percentage points in April, and is still strongly inverted at minus 4.1 percentage points. Over the last 30 years, the operating margin for the S&P 500 narrowed 6.5 percentage points on average one year after the gap fell below minus 2 percentage points. Not only that, but in the year after the spread breached minus 2 percentage points, the S&P fell 2.5% on average.\nAnalysts are getting nervous. They have cut their margin estimates for a quarter of S&P 500 members in the last three months. Their stocks were down 0.63%, compared with a gain of 2.20% for the index and a 3.30% increase for companies with rising margin forecasts. Slicing the index into quintiles based on changes in operating margin shows that companies with the largest declines had a median stock-price decline of 0.5%, versus a gain of 3.9% for those with the greatest expansion in consensus estimates.\nIndustries with the most negative margin pressures are likely to be those that investors historically consider “defensive,” such as health care, utilities and consumer staples. Large companies involved in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences, household and personal products, and utilities have historically fared worst when producer prices outrun consumer prices, and these are where margin forecasts gave dropped the most over the last three months. Margins forecasts continue to rise for the more cyclically-oriented segments of the equity market, with media, consumer services, transportation and oil and gas industries having the largest gains.\nWinners and Losers\nCyclically-oriented sectors are relatively immune from broad profit margin compression.\nThough consensus expectations imply smooth sailing, companies are set up for a more challenging margin outlook as revenue growth rates likely fade, but inflation pressures remain relatively high given persistent uncertainty in the supply chain. Against this backdrop, currently selective industry margin weaknesses may start to spread to more industries, resulting in degradation of margin forecasts for the index at large. Given these estimates are a strong strong leading indicator of stock-price direction, margin trends may be a critical risk to the equity market in the months ahead.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5406762,"gmtCreate":1627943923300,"gmtModify":1663231840147,"authorId":3568773327054096,"author":{"id":3568773327054096,"idStr":"3568773327054096","authorId":3568773327054096,"name":"Unknown934","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b3574572ddefc308a01b8cc301667c4","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":804198612,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Comment","text":"Comment","html":"Comment"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":804191427,"gmtCreate":1627943859569,"gmtModify":1703498125122,"author":{"id":"3579053062900901","authorId":"3579053062900901","name":"Kelvinphan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd87884547b7d5f0157a229e9ea4e890","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3579053062900901","authorIdStr":"3579053062900901"},"htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/804191427","repostId":1196763976,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196763976","pubTimestamp":1627903466,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196763976?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-02 19:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"When Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196763976","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their","content":"<blockquote>\n The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost&nbsp;increases to their customers.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Want to know where the S&amp;P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? Take a look at profit margins.</p>\n<p>Operating margin forecasts are a strong leading indicator of stock prices. A decline in such outlooks preceded routs in the S&amp;P 500 in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2020. What’s concerning now is that analysts have stopped raising their forecasts, and if they begin to lower them, it's likely to lead to a dip in the broader market again. And it’s not like there’s a lot of room for further improvement in margins, defined as earnings before interest and taxes divided by sales. The consensus among analysts is that they will expand to 16.7% over the next 12 months, topping the previous record of 16.4% set in 2018.</p>\n<p>The relationship between S&amp;P 500 profitability and inflation indicators is murky at best, but recent spikes in the producer price index and a smaller increase in the consumer price index is enough to raise a caution flag for equity margin expansion potential for the next few quarters. At its peak in April, the PPI rose 9.5% from a year earlier, almost 3 standard deviations above its average over the past 30 years. (It rose 9.4% in June.) From 2010 to 2019, the median estimate of where operating margins would be 12 months into the future for S&amp;P 500 members were negatively correlated to changes in PPI. The current coefficient of minus 0.22 suggests gains in corporate profitability are likely to stall or even fall as producer prices continue to rise.</p>\n<p><b>Watch Those Margins</b></p>\n<p>Past dips in forecasted profit margins have lined up with pull-backs in equities.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dbda2c0b9394d518fdc8af7d693c8f3\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The difference between the PPI and CPI suggests companies are unable to pass cost increases on to consumers. The spread between the two fell to a record low of minus 5.3 percentage points in April, and is still strongly inverted at minus 4.1 percentage points. Over the last 30 years, the operating margin for the S&amp;P 500 narrowed 6.5 percentage points on average one year after the gap fell below minus 2 percentage points. Not only that, but in the year after the spread breached minus 2 percentage points, the S&amp;P fell 2.5% on average.</p>\n<p>Analysts are getting nervous. They have cut their margin estimates for a quarter of S&amp;P 500 members in the last three months. Their stocks were down 0.63%, compared with a gain of 2.20% for the index and a 3.30% increase for companies with rising margin forecasts. Slicing the index into quintiles based on changes in operating margin shows that companies with the largest declines had a median stock-price decline of 0.5%, versus a gain of 3.9% for those with the greatest expansion in consensus estimates.</p>\n<p>Industries with the most negative margin pressures are likely to be those that investors historically consider “defensive,” such as health care, utilities and consumer staples. Large companies involved in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences, household and personal products, and utilities have historically fared worst when producer prices outrun consumer prices, and these are where margin forecasts gave dropped the most over the last three months. Margins forecasts continue to rise for the more cyclically-oriented segments of the equity market, with media, consumer services, transportation and oil and gas industries having the largest gains.</p>\n<p><b>Winners and Losers</b></p>\n<p>Cyclically-oriented sectors are relatively immune from broad profit margin compression.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884366efc825eccec2878fcd4b3f0912\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"533\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Though consensus expectations imply smooth sailing, companies are set up for a more challenging margin outlook as revenue growth rates likely fade, but inflation pressures remain relatively high given persistent uncertainty in the supply chain. Against this backdrop, currently selective industry margin weaknesses may start to spread to more industries, resulting in degradation of margin forecasts for the index at large. Given these estimates are a strong strong leading indicator of stock-price direction, margin trends may be a critical risk to the equity market in the months ahead.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-02 19:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their customers.\n\nWant to know where the S&P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196763976","content_text":"The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their customers.\n\nWant to know where the S&P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? Take a look at profit margins.\nOperating margin forecasts are a strong leading indicator of stock prices. A decline in such outlooks preceded routs in the S&P 500 in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2020. What’s concerning now is that analysts have stopped raising their forecasts, and if they begin to lower them, it's likely to lead to a dip in the broader market again. And it’s not like there’s a lot of room for further improvement in margins, defined as earnings before interest and taxes divided by sales. The consensus among analysts is that they will expand to 16.7% over the next 12 months, topping the previous record of 16.4% set in 2018.\nThe relationship between S&P 500 profitability and inflation indicators is murky at best, but recent spikes in the producer price index and a smaller increase in the consumer price index is enough to raise a caution flag for equity margin expansion potential for the next few quarters. At its peak in April, the PPI rose 9.5% from a year earlier, almost 3 standard deviations above its average over the past 30 years. (It rose 9.4% in June.) From 2010 to 2019, the median estimate of where operating margins would be 12 months into the future for S&P 500 members were negatively correlated to changes in PPI. The current coefficient of minus 0.22 suggests gains in corporate profitability are likely to stall or even fall as producer prices continue to rise.\nWatch Those Margins\nPast dips in forecasted profit margins have lined up with pull-backs in equities.\nThe difference between the PPI and CPI suggests companies are unable to pass cost increases on to consumers. The spread between the two fell to a record low of minus 5.3 percentage points in April, and is still strongly inverted at minus 4.1 percentage points. Over the last 30 years, the operating margin for the S&P 500 narrowed 6.5 percentage points on average one year after the gap fell below minus 2 percentage points. Not only that, but in the year after the spread breached minus 2 percentage points, the S&P fell 2.5% on average.\nAnalysts are getting nervous. They have cut their margin estimates for a quarter of S&P 500 members in the last three months. Their stocks were down 0.63%, compared with a gain of 2.20% for the index and a 3.30% increase for companies with rising margin forecasts. Slicing the index into quintiles based on changes in operating margin shows that companies with the largest declines had a median stock-price decline of 0.5%, versus a gain of 3.9% for those with the greatest expansion in consensus estimates.\nIndustries with the most negative margin pressures are likely to be those that investors historically consider “defensive,” such as health care, utilities and consumer staples. Large companies involved in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences, household and personal products, and utilities have historically fared worst when producer prices outrun consumer prices, and these are where margin forecasts gave dropped the most over the last three months. Margins forecasts continue to rise for the more cyclically-oriented segments of the equity market, with media, consumer services, transportation and oil and gas industries having the largest gains.\nWinners and Losers\nCyclically-oriented sectors are relatively immune from broad profit margin compression.\nThough consensus expectations imply smooth sailing, companies are set up for a more challenging margin outlook as revenue growth rates likely fade, but inflation pressures remain relatively high given persistent uncertainty in the supply chain. Against this backdrop, currently selective industry margin weaknesses may start to spread to more industries, resulting in degradation of margin forecasts for the index at large. Given these estimates are a strong strong leading indicator of stock-price direction, margin trends may be a critical risk to the equity market in the months ahead.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5406764,"gmtCreate":1627943932966,"gmtModify":1663231840146,"authorId":3568773327054096,"author":{"id":3568773327054096,"idStr":"3568773327054096","authorId":3568773327054096,"name":"Unknown934","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b3574572ddefc308a01b8cc301667c4","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":804191427,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Help me too","text":"Help me too","html":"Help me too"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":804351239,"gmtCreate":1627937548121,"gmtModify":1703498070455,"author":{"id":"3581579564610737","authorId":"3581579564610737","name":"psn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02ceceb6818a838774f95ad5aad8d49c","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581579564610737","authorIdStr":"3581579564610737"},"htmlText":"[笑哭]&nbsp;","listText":"[笑哭]&nbsp;","text":"[笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/804351239","repostId":1196763976,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196763976","pubTimestamp":1627903466,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196763976?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-02 19:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"When Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196763976","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their","content":"<blockquote>\n The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost&nbsp;increases to their customers.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Want to know where the S&amp;P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? Take a look at profit margins.</p>\n<p>Operating margin forecasts are a strong leading indicator of stock prices. A decline in such outlooks preceded routs in the S&amp;P 500 in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2020. What’s concerning now is that analysts have stopped raising their forecasts, and if they begin to lower them, it's likely to lead to a dip in the broader market again. And it’s not like there’s a lot of room for further improvement in margins, defined as earnings before interest and taxes divided by sales. The consensus among analysts is that they will expand to 16.7% over the next 12 months, topping the previous record of 16.4% set in 2018.</p>\n<p>The relationship between S&amp;P 500 profitability and inflation indicators is murky at best, but recent spikes in the producer price index and a smaller increase in the consumer price index is enough to raise a caution flag for equity margin expansion potential for the next few quarters. At its peak in April, the PPI rose 9.5% from a year earlier, almost 3 standard deviations above its average over the past 30 years. (It rose 9.4% in June.) From 2010 to 2019, the median estimate of where operating margins would be 12 months into the future for S&amp;P 500 members were negatively correlated to changes in PPI. The current coefficient of minus 0.22 suggests gains in corporate profitability are likely to stall or even fall as producer prices continue to rise.</p>\n<p><b>Watch Those Margins</b></p>\n<p>Past dips in forecasted profit margins have lined up with pull-backs in equities.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dbda2c0b9394d518fdc8af7d693c8f3\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The difference between the PPI and CPI suggests companies are unable to pass cost increases on to consumers. The spread between the two fell to a record low of minus 5.3 percentage points in April, and is still strongly inverted at minus 4.1 percentage points. Over the last 30 years, the operating margin for the S&amp;P 500 narrowed 6.5 percentage points on average one year after the gap fell below minus 2 percentage points. Not only that, but in the year after the spread breached minus 2 percentage points, the S&amp;P fell 2.5% on average.</p>\n<p>Analysts are getting nervous. They have cut their margin estimates for a quarter of S&amp;P 500 members in the last three months. Their stocks were down 0.63%, compared with a gain of 2.20% for the index and a 3.30% increase for companies with rising margin forecasts. Slicing the index into quintiles based on changes in operating margin shows that companies with the largest declines had a median stock-price decline of 0.5%, versus a gain of 3.9% for those with the greatest expansion in consensus estimates.</p>\n<p>Industries with the most negative margin pressures are likely to be those that investors historically consider “defensive,” such as health care, utilities and consumer staples. Large companies involved in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences, household and personal products, and utilities have historically fared worst when producer prices outrun consumer prices, and these are where margin forecasts gave dropped the most over the last three months. Margins forecasts continue to rise for the more cyclically-oriented segments of the equity market, with media, consumer services, transportation and oil and gas industries having the largest gains.</p>\n<p><b>Winners and Losers</b></p>\n<p>Cyclically-oriented sectors are relatively immune from broad profit margin compression.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884366efc825eccec2878fcd4b3f0912\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"533\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Though consensus expectations imply smooth sailing, companies are set up for a more challenging margin outlook as revenue growth rates likely fade, but inflation pressures remain relatively high given persistent uncertainty in the supply chain. Against this backdrop, currently selective industry margin weaknesses may start to spread to more industries, resulting in degradation of margin forecasts for the index at large. Given these estimates are a strong strong leading indicator of stock-price direction, margin trends may be a critical risk to the equity market in the months ahead.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-02 19:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their customers.\n\nWant to know where the S&P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196763976","content_text":"The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their customers.\n\nWant to know where the S&P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? Take a look at profit margins.\nOperating margin forecasts are a strong leading indicator of stock prices. A decline in such outlooks preceded routs in the S&P 500 in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2020. What’s concerning now is that analysts have stopped raising their forecasts, and if they begin to lower them, it's likely to lead to a dip in the broader market again. And it’s not like there’s a lot of room for further improvement in margins, defined as earnings before interest and taxes divided by sales. The consensus among analysts is that they will expand to 16.7% over the next 12 months, topping the previous record of 16.4% set in 2018.\nThe relationship between S&P 500 profitability and inflation indicators is murky at best, but recent spikes in the producer price index and a smaller increase in the consumer price index is enough to raise a caution flag for equity margin expansion potential for the next few quarters. At its peak in April, the PPI rose 9.5% from a year earlier, almost 3 standard deviations above its average over the past 30 years. (It rose 9.4% in June.) From 2010 to 2019, the median estimate of where operating margins would be 12 months into the future for S&P 500 members were negatively correlated to changes in PPI. The current coefficient of minus 0.22 suggests gains in corporate profitability are likely to stall or even fall as producer prices continue to rise.\nWatch Those Margins\nPast dips in forecasted profit margins have lined up with pull-backs in equities.\nThe difference between the PPI and CPI suggests companies are unable to pass cost increases on to consumers. The spread between the two fell to a record low of minus 5.3 percentage points in April, and is still strongly inverted at minus 4.1 percentage points. Over the last 30 years, the operating margin for the S&P 500 narrowed 6.5 percentage points on average one year after the gap fell below minus 2 percentage points. Not only that, but in the year after the spread breached minus 2 percentage points, the S&P fell 2.5% on average.\nAnalysts are getting nervous. They have cut their margin estimates for a quarter of S&P 500 members in the last three months. Their stocks were down 0.63%, compared with a gain of 2.20% for the index and a 3.30% increase for companies with rising margin forecasts. Slicing the index into quintiles based on changes in operating margin shows that companies with the largest declines had a median stock-price decline of 0.5%, versus a gain of 3.9% for those with the greatest expansion in consensus estimates.\nIndustries with the most negative margin pressures are likely to be those that investors historically consider “defensive,” such as health care, utilities and consumer staples. Large companies involved in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences, household and personal products, and utilities have historically fared worst when producer prices outrun consumer prices, and these are where margin forecasts gave dropped the most over the last three months. Margins forecasts continue to rise for the more cyclically-oriented segments of the equity market, with media, consumer services, transportation and oil and gas industries having the largest gains.\nWinners and Losers\nCyclically-oriented sectors are relatively immune from broad profit margin compression.\nThough consensus expectations imply smooth sailing, companies are set up for a more challenging margin outlook as revenue growth rates likely fade, but inflation pressures remain relatively high given persistent uncertainty in the supply chain. Against this backdrop, currently selective industry margin weaknesses may start to spread to more industries, resulting in degradation of margin forecasts for the index at large. Given these estimates are a strong strong leading indicator of stock-price direction, margin trends may be a critical risk to the equity market in the months ahead.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":804388918,"gmtCreate":1627923346834,"gmtModify":1703498027922,"author":{"id":"3586929408791259","authorId":"3586929408791259","name":"Limyeesiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad8f8e7a5c26a3513362d9220513dad1","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3586929408791259","authorIdStr":"3586929408791259"},"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/804388918","repostId":1196763976,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196763976","pubTimestamp":1627903466,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196763976?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-02 19:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"When Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196763976","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their","content":"<blockquote>\n The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost&nbsp;increases to their customers.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Want to know where the S&amp;P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? Take a look at profit margins.</p>\n<p>Operating margin forecasts are a strong leading indicator of stock prices. A decline in such outlooks preceded routs in the S&amp;P 500 in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2020. What’s concerning now is that analysts have stopped raising their forecasts, and if they begin to lower them, it's likely to lead to a dip in the broader market again. And it’s not like there’s a lot of room for further improvement in margins, defined as earnings before interest and taxes divided by sales. The consensus among analysts is that they will expand to 16.7% over the next 12 months, topping the previous record of 16.4% set in 2018.</p>\n<p>The relationship between S&amp;P 500 profitability and inflation indicators is murky at best, but recent spikes in the producer price index and a smaller increase in the consumer price index is enough to raise a caution flag for equity margin expansion potential for the next few quarters. At its peak in April, the PPI rose 9.5% from a year earlier, almost 3 standard deviations above its average over the past 30 years. (It rose 9.4% in June.) From 2010 to 2019, the median estimate of where operating margins would be 12 months into the future for S&amp;P 500 members were negatively correlated to changes in PPI. The current coefficient of minus 0.22 suggests gains in corporate profitability are likely to stall or even fall as producer prices continue to rise.</p>\n<p><b>Watch Those Margins</b></p>\n<p>Past dips in forecasted profit margins have lined up with pull-backs in equities.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dbda2c0b9394d518fdc8af7d693c8f3\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The difference between the PPI and CPI suggests companies are unable to pass cost increases on to consumers. The spread between the two fell to a record low of minus 5.3 percentage points in April, and is still strongly inverted at minus 4.1 percentage points. Over the last 30 years, the operating margin for the S&amp;P 500 narrowed 6.5 percentage points on average one year after the gap fell below minus 2 percentage points. Not only that, but in the year after the spread breached minus 2 percentage points, the S&amp;P fell 2.5% on average.</p>\n<p>Analysts are getting nervous. They have cut their margin estimates for a quarter of S&amp;P 500 members in the last three months. Their stocks were down 0.63%, compared with a gain of 2.20% for the index and a 3.30% increase for companies with rising margin forecasts. Slicing the index into quintiles based on changes in operating margin shows that companies with the largest declines had a median stock-price decline of 0.5%, versus a gain of 3.9% for those with the greatest expansion in consensus estimates.</p>\n<p>Industries with the most negative margin pressures are likely to be those that investors historically consider “defensive,” such as health care, utilities and consumer staples. Large companies involved in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences, household and personal products, and utilities have historically fared worst when producer prices outrun consumer prices, and these are where margin forecasts gave dropped the most over the last three months. Margins forecasts continue to rise for the more cyclically-oriented segments of the equity market, with media, consumer services, transportation and oil and gas industries having the largest gains.</p>\n<p><b>Winners and Losers</b></p>\n<p>Cyclically-oriented sectors are relatively immune from broad profit margin compression.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884366efc825eccec2878fcd4b3f0912\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"533\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Though consensus expectations imply smooth sailing, companies are set up for a more challenging margin outlook as revenue growth rates likely fade, but inflation pressures remain relatively high given persistent uncertainty in the supply chain. Against this backdrop, currently selective industry margin weaknesses may start to spread to more industries, resulting in degradation of margin forecasts for the index at large. Given these estimates are a strong strong leading indicator of stock-price direction, margin trends may be a critical risk to the equity market in the months ahead.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-02 19:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their customers.\n\nWant to know where the S&P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196763976","content_text":"The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their customers.\n\nWant to know where the S&P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? Take a look at profit margins.\nOperating margin forecasts are a strong leading indicator of stock prices. A decline in such outlooks preceded routs in the S&P 500 in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2020. What’s concerning now is that analysts have stopped raising their forecasts, and if they begin to lower them, it's likely to lead to a dip in the broader market again. And it’s not like there’s a lot of room for further improvement in margins, defined as earnings before interest and taxes divided by sales. The consensus among analysts is that they will expand to 16.7% over the next 12 months, topping the previous record of 16.4% set in 2018.\nThe relationship between S&P 500 profitability and inflation indicators is murky at best, but recent spikes in the producer price index and a smaller increase in the consumer price index is enough to raise a caution flag for equity margin expansion potential for the next few quarters. At its peak in April, the PPI rose 9.5% from a year earlier, almost 3 standard deviations above its average over the past 30 years. (It rose 9.4% in June.) From 2010 to 2019, the median estimate of where operating margins would be 12 months into the future for S&P 500 members were negatively correlated to changes in PPI. The current coefficient of minus 0.22 suggests gains in corporate profitability are likely to stall or even fall as producer prices continue to rise.\nWatch Those Margins\nPast dips in forecasted profit margins have lined up with pull-backs in equities.\nThe difference between the PPI and CPI suggests companies are unable to pass cost increases on to consumers. The spread between the two fell to a record low of minus 5.3 percentage points in April, and is still strongly inverted at minus 4.1 percentage points. Over the last 30 years, the operating margin for the S&P 500 narrowed 6.5 percentage points on average one year after the gap fell below minus 2 percentage points. Not only that, but in the year after the spread breached minus 2 percentage points, the S&P fell 2.5% on average.\nAnalysts are getting nervous. They have cut their margin estimates for a quarter of S&P 500 members in the last three months. Their stocks were down 0.63%, compared with a gain of 2.20% for the index and a 3.30% increase for companies with rising margin forecasts. Slicing the index into quintiles based on changes in operating margin shows that companies with the largest declines had a median stock-price decline of 0.5%, versus a gain of 3.9% for those with the greatest expansion in consensus estimates.\nIndustries with the most negative margin pressures are likely to be those that investors historically consider “defensive,” such as health care, utilities and consumer staples. Large companies involved in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences, household and personal products, and utilities have historically fared worst when producer prices outrun consumer prices, and these are where margin forecasts gave dropped the most over the last three months. Margins forecasts continue to rise for the more cyclically-oriented segments of the equity market, with media, consumer services, transportation and oil and gas industries having the largest gains.\nWinners and Losers\nCyclically-oriented sectors are relatively immune from broad profit margin compression.\nThough consensus expectations imply smooth sailing, companies are set up for a more challenging margin outlook as revenue growth rates likely fade, but inflation pressures remain relatively high given persistent uncertainty in the supply chain. Against this backdrop, currently selective industry margin weaknesses may start to spread to more industries, resulting in degradation of margin forecasts for the index at large. Given these estimates are a strong strong leading indicator of stock-price direction, margin trends may be a critical risk to the equity market in the months ahead.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":804331692,"gmtCreate":1627920644016,"gmtModify":1703497998854,"author":{"id":"4090479553934560","authorId":"4090479553934560","name":"RoAd","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4090479553934560","authorIdStr":"4090479553934560"},"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/804331692","repostId":1196763976,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196763976","pubTimestamp":1627903466,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196763976?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-02 19:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"When Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196763976","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their","content":"<blockquote>\n The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost&nbsp;increases to their customers.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Want to know where the S&amp;P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? Take a look at profit margins.</p>\n<p>Operating margin forecasts are a strong leading indicator of stock prices. A decline in such outlooks preceded routs in the S&amp;P 500 in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2020. What’s concerning now is that analysts have stopped raising their forecasts, and if they begin to lower them, it's likely to lead to a dip in the broader market again. And it’s not like there’s a lot of room for further improvement in margins, defined as earnings before interest and taxes divided by sales. The consensus among analysts is that they will expand to 16.7% over the next 12 months, topping the previous record of 16.4% set in 2018.</p>\n<p>The relationship between S&amp;P 500 profitability and inflation indicators is murky at best, but recent spikes in the producer price index and a smaller increase in the consumer price index is enough to raise a caution flag for equity margin expansion potential for the next few quarters. At its peak in April, the PPI rose 9.5% from a year earlier, almost 3 standard deviations above its average over the past 30 years. (It rose 9.4% in June.) From 2010 to 2019, the median estimate of where operating margins would be 12 months into the future for S&amp;P 500 members were negatively correlated to changes in PPI. The current coefficient of minus 0.22 suggests gains in corporate profitability are likely to stall or even fall as producer prices continue to rise.</p>\n<p><b>Watch Those Margins</b></p>\n<p>Past dips in forecasted profit margins have lined up with pull-backs in equities.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dbda2c0b9394d518fdc8af7d693c8f3\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The difference between the PPI and CPI suggests companies are unable to pass cost increases on to consumers. The spread between the two fell to a record low of minus 5.3 percentage points in April, and is still strongly inverted at minus 4.1 percentage points. Over the last 30 years, the operating margin for the S&amp;P 500 narrowed 6.5 percentage points on average one year after the gap fell below minus 2 percentage points. Not only that, but in the year after the spread breached minus 2 percentage points, the S&amp;P fell 2.5% on average.</p>\n<p>Analysts are getting nervous. They have cut their margin estimates for a quarter of S&amp;P 500 members in the last three months. Their stocks were down 0.63%, compared with a gain of 2.20% for the index and a 3.30% increase for companies with rising margin forecasts. Slicing the index into quintiles based on changes in operating margin shows that companies with the largest declines had a median stock-price decline of 0.5%, versus a gain of 3.9% for those with the greatest expansion in consensus estimates.</p>\n<p>Industries with the most negative margin pressures are likely to be those that investors historically consider “defensive,” such as health care, utilities and consumer staples. Large companies involved in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences, household and personal products, and utilities have historically fared worst when producer prices outrun consumer prices, and these are where margin forecasts gave dropped the most over the last three months. Margins forecasts continue to rise for the more cyclically-oriented segments of the equity market, with media, consumer services, transportation and oil and gas industries having the largest gains.</p>\n<p><b>Winners and Losers</b></p>\n<p>Cyclically-oriented sectors are relatively immune from broad profit margin compression.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884366efc825eccec2878fcd4b3f0912\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"533\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Though consensus expectations imply smooth sailing, companies are set up for a more challenging margin outlook as revenue growth rates likely fade, but inflation pressures remain relatively high given persistent uncertainty in the supply chain. Against this backdrop, currently selective industry margin weaknesses may start to spread to more industries, resulting in degradation of margin forecasts for the index at large. Given these estimates are a strong strong leading indicator of stock-price direction, margin trends may be a critical risk to the equity market in the months ahead.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-02 19:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their customers.\n\nWant to know where the S&P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196763976","content_text":"The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their customers.\n\nWant to know where the S&P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? Take a look at profit margins.\nOperating margin forecasts are a strong leading indicator of stock prices. A decline in such outlooks preceded routs in the S&P 500 in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2020. What’s concerning now is that analysts have stopped raising their forecasts, and if they begin to lower them, it's likely to lead to a dip in the broader market again. And it’s not like there’s a lot of room for further improvement in margins, defined as earnings before interest and taxes divided by sales. The consensus among analysts is that they will expand to 16.7% over the next 12 months, topping the previous record of 16.4% set in 2018.\nThe relationship between S&P 500 profitability and inflation indicators is murky at best, but recent spikes in the producer price index and a smaller increase in the consumer price index is enough to raise a caution flag for equity margin expansion potential for the next few quarters. At its peak in April, the PPI rose 9.5% from a year earlier, almost 3 standard deviations above its average over the past 30 years. (It rose 9.4% in June.) From 2010 to 2019, the median estimate of where operating margins would be 12 months into the future for S&P 500 members were negatively correlated to changes in PPI. The current coefficient of minus 0.22 suggests gains in corporate profitability are likely to stall or even fall as producer prices continue to rise.\nWatch Those Margins\nPast dips in forecasted profit margins have lined up with pull-backs in equities.\nThe difference between the PPI and CPI suggests companies are unable to pass cost increases on to consumers. The spread between the two fell to a record low of minus 5.3 percentage points in April, and is still strongly inverted at minus 4.1 percentage points. Over the last 30 years, the operating margin for the S&P 500 narrowed 6.5 percentage points on average one year after the gap fell below minus 2 percentage points. Not only that, but in the year after the spread breached minus 2 percentage points, the S&P fell 2.5% on average.\nAnalysts are getting nervous. They have cut their margin estimates for a quarter of S&P 500 members in the last three months. Their stocks were down 0.63%, compared with a gain of 2.20% for the index and a 3.30% increase for companies with rising margin forecasts. Slicing the index into quintiles based on changes in operating margin shows that companies with the largest declines had a median stock-price decline of 0.5%, versus a gain of 3.9% for those with the greatest expansion in consensus estimates.\nIndustries with the most negative margin pressures are likely to be those that investors historically consider “defensive,” such as health care, utilities and consumer staples. Large companies involved in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences, household and personal products, and utilities have historically fared worst when producer prices outrun consumer prices, and these are where margin forecasts gave dropped the most over the last three months. Margins forecasts continue to rise for the more cyclically-oriented segments of the equity market, with media, consumer services, transportation and oil and gas industries having the largest gains.\nWinners and Losers\nCyclically-oriented sectors are relatively immune from broad profit margin compression.\nThough consensus expectations imply smooth sailing, companies are set up for a more challenging margin outlook as revenue growth rates likely fade, but inflation pressures remain relatively high given persistent uncertainty in the supply chain. Against this backdrop, currently selective industry margin weaknesses may start to spread to more industries, resulting in degradation of margin forecasts for the index at large. Given these estimates are a strong strong leading indicator of stock-price direction, margin trends may be a critical risk to the equity market in the months ahead.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":804398585,"gmtCreate":1627919984947,"gmtModify":1703497987116,"author":{"id":"3575196385895354","authorId":"3575196385895354","name":"Cedric77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5ee082b05004f20d3486afedee30814","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3575196385895354","authorIdStr":"3575196385895354"},"htmlText":"Good write up but it difficult to digest!Probably,instead trying to predict from past statistics or AI we shld focus on the fundamental.Gd stock for Long is always a gd investment. Eg. Square,Nividia.","listText":"Good write up but it difficult to digest!Probably,instead trying to predict from past statistics or AI we shld focus on the fundamental.Gd stock for Long is always a gd investment. Eg. Square,Nividia.","text":"Good write up but it difficult to digest!Probably,instead trying to predict from past statistics or AI we shld focus on the fundamental.Gd stock for Long is always a gd investment. Eg. Square,Nividia.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/804398585","repostId":1196763976,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196763976","pubTimestamp":1627903466,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196763976?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-02 19:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"When Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196763976","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their","content":"<blockquote>\n The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost&nbsp;increases to their customers.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Want to know where the S&amp;P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? Take a look at profit margins.</p>\n<p>Operating margin forecasts are a strong leading indicator of stock prices. A decline in such outlooks preceded routs in the S&amp;P 500 in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2020. What’s concerning now is that analysts have stopped raising their forecasts, and if they begin to lower them, it's likely to lead to a dip in the broader market again. And it’s not like there’s a lot of room for further improvement in margins, defined as earnings before interest and taxes divided by sales. The consensus among analysts is that they will expand to 16.7% over the next 12 months, topping the previous record of 16.4% set in 2018.</p>\n<p>The relationship between S&amp;P 500 profitability and inflation indicators is murky at best, but recent spikes in the producer price index and a smaller increase in the consumer price index is enough to raise a caution flag for equity margin expansion potential for the next few quarters. At its peak in April, the PPI rose 9.5% from a year earlier, almost 3 standard deviations above its average over the past 30 years. (It rose 9.4% in June.) From 2010 to 2019, the median estimate of where operating margins would be 12 months into the future for S&amp;P 500 members were negatively correlated to changes in PPI. The current coefficient of minus 0.22 suggests gains in corporate profitability are likely to stall or even fall as producer prices continue to rise.</p>\n<p><b>Watch Those Margins</b></p>\n<p>Past dips in forecasted profit margins have lined up with pull-backs in equities.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dbda2c0b9394d518fdc8af7d693c8f3\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The difference between the PPI and CPI suggests companies are unable to pass cost increases on to consumers. The spread between the two fell to a record low of minus 5.3 percentage points in April, and is still strongly inverted at minus 4.1 percentage points. Over the last 30 years, the operating margin for the S&amp;P 500 narrowed 6.5 percentage points on average one year after the gap fell below minus 2 percentage points. Not only that, but in the year after the spread breached minus 2 percentage points, the S&amp;P fell 2.5% on average.</p>\n<p>Analysts are getting nervous. They have cut their margin estimates for a quarter of S&amp;P 500 members in the last three months. Their stocks were down 0.63%, compared with a gain of 2.20% for the index and a 3.30% increase for companies with rising margin forecasts. Slicing the index into quintiles based on changes in operating margin shows that companies with the largest declines had a median stock-price decline of 0.5%, versus a gain of 3.9% for those with the greatest expansion in consensus estimates.</p>\n<p>Industries with the most negative margin pressures are likely to be those that investors historically consider “defensive,” such as health care, utilities and consumer staples. Large companies involved in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences, household and personal products, and utilities have historically fared worst when producer prices outrun consumer prices, and these are where margin forecasts gave dropped the most over the last three months. Margins forecasts continue to rise for the more cyclically-oriented segments of the equity market, with media, consumer services, transportation and oil and gas industries having the largest gains.</p>\n<p><b>Winners and Losers</b></p>\n<p>Cyclically-oriented sectors are relatively immune from broad profit margin compression.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884366efc825eccec2878fcd4b3f0912\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"533\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Though consensus expectations imply smooth sailing, companies are set up for a more challenging margin outlook as revenue growth rates likely fade, but inflation pressures remain relatively high given persistent uncertainty in the supply chain. Against this backdrop, currently selective industry margin weaknesses may start to spread to more industries, resulting in degradation of margin forecasts for the index at large. Given these estimates are a strong strong leading indicator of stock-price direction, margin trends may be a critical risk to the equity market in the months ahead.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-02 19:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their customers.\n\nWant to know where the S&P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196763976","content_text":"The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their customers.\n\nWant to know where the S&P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? Take a look at profit margins.\nOperating margin forecasts are a strong leading indicator of stock prices. A decline in such outlooks preceded routs in the S&P 500 in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2020. What’s concerning now is that analysts have stopped raising their forecasts, and if they begin to lower them, it's likely to lead to a dip in the broader market again. And it’s not like there’s a lot of room for further improvement in margins, defined as earnings before interest and taxes divided by sales. The consensus among analysts is that they will expand to 16.7% over the next 12 months, topping the previous record of 16.4% set in 2018.\nThe relationship between S&P 500 profitability and inflation indicators is murky at best, but recent spikes in the producer price index and a smaller increase in the consumer price index is enough to raise a caution flag for equity margin expansion potential for the next few quarters. At its peak in April, the PPI rose 9.5% from a year earlier, almost 3 standard deviations above its average over the past 30 years. (It rose 9.4% in June.) From 2010 to 2019, the median estimate of where operating margins would be 12 months into the future for S&P 500 members were negatively correlated to changes in PPI. The current coefficient of minus 0.22 suggests gains in corporate profitability are likely to stall or even fall as producer prices continue to rise.\nWatch Those Margins\nPast dips in forecasted profit margins have lined up with pull-backs in equities.\nThe difference between the PPI and CPI suggests companies are unable to pass cost increases on to consumers. The spread between the two fell to a record low of minus 5.3 percentage points in April, and is still strongly inverted at minus 4.1 percentage points. Over the last 30 years, the operating margin for the S&P 500 narrowed 6.5 percentage points on average one year after the gap fell below minus 2 percentage points. Not only that, but in the year after the spread breached minus 2 percentage points, the S&P fell 2.5% on average.\nAnalysts are getting nervous. They have cut their margin estimates for a quarter of S&P 500 members in the last three months. Their stocks were down 0.63%, compared with a gain of 2.20% for the index and a 3.30% increase for companies with rising margin forecasts. Slicing the index into quintiles based on changes in operating margin shows that companies with the largest declines had a median stock-price decline of 0.5%, versus a gain of 3.9% for those with the greatest expansion in consensus estimates.\nIndustries with the most negative margin pressures are likely to be those that investors historically consider “defensive,” such as health care, utilities and consumer staples. Large companies involved in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences, household and personal products, and utilities have historically fared worst when producer prices outrun consumer prices, and these are where margin forecasts gave dropped the most over the last three months. Margins forecasts continue to rise for the more cyclically-oriented segments of the equity market, with media, consumer services, transportation and oil and gas industries having the largest gains.\nWinners and Losers\nCyclically-oriented sectors are relatively immune from broad profit margin compression.\nThough consensus expectations imply smooth sailing, companies are set up for a more challenging margin outlook as revenue growth rates likely fade, but inflation pressures remain relatively high given persistent uncertainty in the supply chain. Against this backdrop, currently selective industry margin weaknesses may start to spread to more industries, resulting in degradation of margin forecasts for the index at large. Given these estimates are a strong strong leading indicator of stock-price direction, margin trends may be a critical risk to the equity market in the months ahead.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5407137,"gmtCreate":1627945968585,"gmtModify":1663231840329,"authorId":3586131488444401,"author":{"id":3586131488444401,"idStr":"3586131488444401","authorId":3586131488444401,"name":"STKG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/730c2482b43ac1909a601868b378a6e4","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":804398585,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>agree</u>","text":"<u>agree</u>","html":"<u>agree</u>"},{"id":5406598,"gmtCreate":1627942539821,"gmtModify":1663231837430,"authorId":3585475029155588,"author":{"id":3585475029155588,"idStr":"3585475029155588","authorId":3585475029155588,"name":"seanisright","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dda21240ac9bd6280ce1f04de5c3a999","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":804398585,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"true","text":"true","html":"true"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":804391019,"gmtCreate":1627919803831,"gmtModify":1703497983644,"author":{"id":"3581638828642415","authorId":"3581638828642415","name":"Kelvin_Qiu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58df4d9e030a9766be7d0b65f5e798af","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f84d87792f02cf78e80ee34979fd31e5","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3581638828642415","authorIdStr":"3581638828642415"},"htmlText":"As long as you still have bullets to hold out the drop, you get to buy cheap and average down your price, will benfit long term. Different game play if you want to speculate to hit &amp; run the short term.Like pls thx[開心]&nbsp;","listText":"As long as you still have bullets to hold out the drop, you get to buy cheap and average down your price, will benfit long term. Different game play if you want to speculate to hit &amp; run the short term.Like pls thx[開心]&nbsp;","text":"As long as you still have bullets to hold out the drop, you get to buy cheap and average down your price, will benfit long term. Different game play if you want to speculate to hit & run the short term.Like pls thx[開心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/804391019","repostId":1196763976,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196763976","pubTimestamp":1627903466,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196763976?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-02 19:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"When Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196763976","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their","content":"<blockquote>\n The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost&nbsp;increases to their customers.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Want to know where the S&amp;P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? Take a look at profit margins.</p>\n<p>Operating margin forecasts are a strong leading indicator of stock prices. A decline in such outlooks preceded routs in the S&amp;P 500 in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2020. What’s concerning now is that analysts have stopped raising their forecasts, and if they begin to lower them, it's likely to lead to a dip in the broader market again. And it’s not like there’s a lot of room for further improvement in margins, defined as earnings before interest and taxes divided by sales. The consensus among analysts is that they will expand to 16.7% over the next 12 months, topping the previous record of 16.4% set in 2018.</p>\n<p>The relationship between S&amp;P 500 profitability and inflation indicators is murky at best, but recent spikes in the producer price index and a smaller increase in the consumer price index is enough to raise a caution flag for equity margin expansion potential for the next few quarters. At its peak in April, the PPI rose 9.5% from a year earlier, almost 3 standard deviations above its average over the past 30 years. (It rose 9.4% in June.) From 2010 to 2019, the median estimate of where operating margins would be 12 months into the future for S&amp;P 500 members were negatively correlated to changes in PPI. The current coefficient of minus 0.22 suggests gains in corporate profitability are likely to stall or even fall as producer prices continue to rise.</p>\n<p><b>Watch Those Margins</b></p>\n<p>Past dips in forecasted profit margins have lined up with pull-backs in equities.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dbda2c0b9394d518fdc8af7d693c8f3\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The difference between the PPI and CPI suggests companies are unable to pass cost increases on to consumers. The spread between the two fell to a record low of minus 5.3 percentage points in April, and is still strongly inverted at minus 4.1 percentage points. Over the last 30 years, the operating margin for the S&amp;P 500 narrowed 6.5 percentage points on average one year after the gap fell below minus 2 percentage points. Not only that, but in the year after the spread breached minus 2 percentage points, the S&amp;P fell 2.5% on average.</p>\n<p>Analysts are getting nervous. They have cut their margin estimates for a quarter of S&amp;P 500 members in the last three months. Their stocks were down 0.63%, compared with a gain of 2.20% for the index and a 3.30% increase for companies with rising margin forecasts. Slicing the index into quintiles based on changes in operating margin shows that companies with the largest declines had a median stock-price decline of 0.5%, versus a gain of 3.9% for those with the greatest expansion in consensus estimates.</p>\n<p>Industries with the most negative margin pressures are likely to be those that investors historically consider “defensive,” such as health care, utilities and consumer staples. Large companies involved in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences, household and personal products, and utilities have historically fared worst when producer prices outrun consumer prices, and these are where margin forecasts gave dropped the most over the last three months. Margins forecasts continue to rise for the more cyclically-oriented segments of the equity market, with media, consumer services, transportation and oil and gas industries having the largest gains.</p>\n<p><b>Winners and Losers</b></p>\n<p>Cyclically-oriented sectors are relatively immune from broad profit margin compression.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884366efc825eccec2878fcd4b3f0912\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"533\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Though consensus expectations imply smooth sailing, companies are set up for a more challenging margin outlook as revenue growth rates likely fade, but inflation pressures remain relatively high given persistent uncertainty in the supply chain. Against this backdrop, currently selective industry margin weaknesses may start to spread to more industries, resulting in degradation of margin forecasts for the index at large. Given these estimates are a strong strong leading indicator of stock-price direction, margin trends may be a critical risk to the equity market in the months ahead.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen Will Stocks Drop? Watch Profit Margins (and Get Nervous)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-02 19:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their customers.\n\nWant to know where the S&P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/stock-market-margin-mayhem-looms-large-over-bull-market?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196763976","content_text":"The evidence is mounting that companies are having a harder time passing off cost increases to their customers.\n\nWant to know where the S&P 500 Index may be headed after reaching another record high? Take a look at profit margins.\nOperating margin forecasts are a strong leading indicator of stock prices. A decline in such outlooks preceded routs in the S&P 500 in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2020. What’s concerning now is that analysts have stopped raising their forecasts, and if they begin to lower them, it's likely to lead to a dip in the broader market again. And it’s not like there’s a lot of room for further improvement in margins, defined as earnings before interest and taxes divided by sales. The consensus among analysts is that they will expand to 16.7% over the next 12 months, topping the previous record of 16.4% set in 2018.\nThe relationship between S&P 500 profitability and inflation indicators is murky at best, but recent spikes in the producer price index and a smaller increase in the consumer price index is enough to raise a caution flag for equity margin expansion potential for the next few quarters. At its peak in April, the PPI rose 9.5% from a year earlier, almost 3 standard deviations above its average over the past 30 years. (It rose 9.4% in June.) From 2010 to 2019, the median estimate of where operating margins would be 12 months into the future for S&P 500 members were negatively correlated to changes in PPI. The current coefficient of minus 0.22 suggests gains in corporate profitability are likely to stall or even fall as producer prices continue to rise.\nWatch Those Margins\nPast dips in forecasted profit margins have lined up with pull-backs in equities.\nThe difference between the PPI and CPI suggests companies are unable to pass cost increases on to consumers. The spread between the two fell to a record low of minus 5.3 percentage points in April, and is still strongly inverted at minus 4.1 percentage points. Over the last 30 years, the operating margin for the S&P 500 narrowed 6.5 percentage points on average one year after the gap fell below minus 2 percentage points. Not only that, but in the year after the spread breached minus 2 percentage points, the S&P fell 2.5% on average.\nAnalysts are getting nervous. They have cut their margin estimates for a quarter of S&P 500 members in the last three months. Their stocks were down 0.63%, compared with a gain of 2.20% for the index and a 3.30% increase for companies with rising margin forecasts. Slicing the index into quintiles based on changes in operating margin shows that companies with the largest declines had a median stock-price decline of 0.5%, versus a gain of 3.9% for those with the greatest expansion in consensus estimates.\nIndustries with the most negative margin pressures are likely to be those that investors historically consider “defensive,” such as health care, utilities and consumer staples. Large companies involved in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences, household and personal products, and utilities have historically fared worst when producer prices outrun consumer prices, and these are where margin forecasts gave dropped the most over the last three months. Margins forecasts continue to rise for the more cyclically-oriented segments of the equity market, with media, consumer services, transportation and oil and gas industries having the largest gains.\nWinners and Losers\nCyclically-oriented sectors are relatively immune from broad profit margin compression.\nThough consensus expectations imply smooth sailing, companies are set up for a more challenging margin outlook as revenue growth rates likely fade, but inflation pressures remain relatively high given persistent uncertainty in the supply chain. Against this backdrop, currently selective industry margin weaknesses may start to spread to more industries, resulting in degradation of margin forecasts for the index at large. Given these estimates are a strong strong leading indicator of stock-price direction, margin trends may be a critical risk to the equity market in the months ahead.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5407999,"gmtCreate":1627949836258,"gmtModify":1663231845127,"authorId":4087656585440260,"author":{"id":4087656585440260,"idStr":"4087656585440260","authorId":4087656585440260,"name":"Ky75","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/09086f8acbf4fb32c796dcffc44673bf","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":804391019,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Yep. can’t time the market so time in the market is more precIous. just make sure you have a long runway and DCA would work. ","text":"Yep. can’t time the market so time in the market is more precIous. just make sure you have a long runway and DCA would work. ","html":"Yep. can’t time the market so time in the market is more precIous. just make sure you have a long runway and DCA would work. "},{"id":5406144,"gmtCreate":1627926130591,"gmtModify":1663231835943,"authorId":3577018109379877,"author":{"id":3577018109379877,"idStr":"3577018109379877","authorId":3577018109379877,"name":"Des79","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":804391019,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"This strategy work fine for me. It <u>still</u> a long way for me. Like pls if u agreed.","text":"This strategy work fine for me. It <u>still</u> a long way for me. Like pls if u agreed.","html":"This strategy work fine for me. It <u>still</u> a long way for me. Like pls if u agreed."},{"id":5405883,"gmtCreate":1627921390670,"gmtModify":1663231835934,"authorId":4090242229859660,"author":{"id":4090242229859660,"idStr":"4090242229859660","authorId":4090242229859660,"name":"pop3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31b0c6e3208f47bb4772de4a61d92518","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":804391019,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Totally agree with this theory, am a believer of long term strategy that has solid fundementals because slow and steady wins the race","text":"Totally agree with this theory, am a believer of long term strategy that has solid fundementals because slow and steady wins the race","html":"Totally agree with this theory, am a believer of long term strategy that has solid fundementals because slow and steady wins the race"},{"id":5406139,"gmtCreate":1627925963355,"gmtModify":1631893199638,"authorId":3577018109379877,"author":{"id":3577018109379877,"idStr":"3577018109379877","authorId":3577018109379877,"name":"Des79","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":804391019,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"I also totally agree with your address. As long as the stock is low/discount price. I will study the stock and pick ,and average down the price. I monthly invest with my bullet. Just like saving.","text":"I also totally agree with your address. As long as the stock is low/discount price. I will study the stock and pick ,and average down the price. I monthly invest with my bullet. Just like saving.","html":"I also totally agree with your address. As long as the stock is low/discount price. I will study the stock and pick ,and average down the price. I monthly invest with my bullet. Just like saving."}],"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":278,"commentSize":37,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}