Trump agrees to pause tariffs on Canada and Mexico after they pledge to boost border enforcement 30 days is not enough time to move a factory but there is time to stock up supplies before the tariffs are revisited. The land and sea traffic lanes should get busy with the warehouse space in demand. Procurement strategies need a review with options. It is difficult to get the full picture as the tariffs have not been fully announced but it is essential to start looking for options right now.Does this warrant a look into a different market like Southeast Asia? This region would have much to gain if the trade war between America and China had started. This is expected to be the next region of great growth. Worldometer advises that 698 million people are living in this region with an expected
Oil tells the future, credit card, layoffs - My Investing Muse (03Feb2025)
My Investing Muse (03Feb2025) Layoffs & Closure news Microsoft has initiated a wave of performance-based job cuts, with impacted employees losing their jobs effective immediately and receiving no severance packages, according to termination letters sent to staff. Berkshire Hathaway said on Friday it has shed more than 4,000 jobs over the last year, on pace to post a record annual operating profit. In a regulatory filing, Berkshire said its dozens of operating businesses employ about 392,000 people, down from 396,440 shown in its most recent annual report last February. - Reuters The JG Summit conglomerate will shut down its petrochemical business — which makes raw materials for the production of plastic products and industrial chemicals — due to a China-induced global oversupply of res
Home sales, ICE raids & Boeing losses - News and my thoughts from last week (03Feb2025)
News and my thoughts from last week (03Feb2025) US private sector full-time jobs have DROPPED by nearly 2 MILLION over the past year. Such a drop has never happened outside of recessions. The only gain in jobs has been in the government sector. - X user Global Markets Investor 16.2% of total pending home sales in December fell out of contract, the highest December rate on record. This also marks the third-largest percentage since data began in 2017. Nominally, a whopping ~40,000 home-purchase agreements were canceled last month. Home purchase cancellations have surged since 2022 as mortgage rates remain historically high. The weekly average 30-year-fixed mortgage rate reached 7.04% last week, the highest since May. Homebuyers have lost confidence in the market. - X user The Kobeissi Letter
Technical analsyis for S&P500 with over 20 indicators and candlestick patterns (03Feb2025)
Market Outlook of S&P500 - 03Feb2025 Observations: The MACD indicator is showing an uptrend. Moving Averages (MA). Both the MA50 line and the MA200 line are on an uptrend. The last candle is above both the MA50 line and the MA200 line. This implies a bullish outlook for both the mid-and long-term. The 3 Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing an uptrend. Chaikin’s Monetary flow (CMF) shows an uptrend. Using 1D intervals, the technical analysis shows a “Strong Buy” rating for the S&P 500. 19 indicators show a “Buy” rating. 3 indicators show a “Sell” rating. The latest candlestick patterns are showing a mixture of bullish and bearish signals. From the above, the S&P500 should go up in the coming week. (The tariff war started by the USA with Mexico, Canada and China is
Affirm's earnings - should we have this stock. earnings calendar (03Feb2025)
Earnings Calendar (03Feb2025) Some interesting earnings include Palantir, Tyson, Amazon, Disney, Alphabet and Affirm. Let us look at Affirm - one of the Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) companies The Technical Analysis is recommending a “Strong Buy”. The Analysts’ Sentiment has a “Buy” rating with a price target of $66.06. This implies an upside of 8.17% from the current price of $61.07. Observations for Affirm: The revenue grew from $264M in 2019 to $2,323M in 2024. The gross profit grew from $156M in 2019 to $1,478M in 2024. The operating profit remained at a loss since 2019. The business has yet to break even since 2019. But the operating loss has been improving. The forecast of EPS and revenue for Affirm is -0.162 and $805.62M respectively. I would monitor the stock till it can break even.
PMI, Jobs & Unemployment updates - Economic Calendar (week of 03Feb2025)
Public Holidays China is closed on 3rd Feb 2025 to celebrate Chinese New Year. There is no public holidays in America, Hong Kong and Singapore in the coming week. Economic Calendar (03Feb2025) China is closed on 3rd Feb 2025 as they celebrate Chinese Lunar New Year. Notable Highlights The S&P Global manufacturing PMI is expected to be 50.1. This represents a slight growth compared to the previous. ISM manufacturing PMI will also be released. This represents the growth or contraction of the manufacturing industry. ISM manufacturing prices will be released. A figure of above 50 implies an increase in manufacturing cost. This can lead to inflationary costs that are passed onto the consumers. S&P Global Services PMI is expected to hit 52.8. This implies a
Is Affirm turning things around? Preview of the week starting 03Feb2025
Public Holidays China is closed on 3rd Feb 2025 to celebrate Chinese New Year. There is no public holidays in America, Hong Kong and Singapore in the coming week. Economic Calendar (03Feb2025) China is closed on 3rd Feb 2025 as they celebrate Chinese Lunar New Year. Notable Highlights The S&P Global manufacturing PMI is expected to be 50.1. This represents a slight growth compared to the previous. ISM manufacturing PMI will also be released. This represents the growth or contraction of the manufacturing industry. ISM manufacturing prices will be released. A figure of above 50 implies an increase in manufacturing cost. This can lead to inflationary costs that are passed onto the consumers. S&P Global Services PMI is expected to hit 52.8. This implies a growth in the global services