林园："消费估值过高"判断是错的，茅台比黄金值得投资

证券市场红周刊2020-12-27

核心观点：我们目前处在牛市初期，趋势投资的常识是，当所有人都挣钱了，才是牛市顶部出现的标志。中国的消费品、医药行业内会诞生“下一个茅台”，因为中国有14亿人口基数，但中国的消费品公司的销售额目前远低于海外同类市场。5G通讯、人工智能、新能源等领域也会诞生大牛股，这些是改变我们生活的公司，但是操作起来风险较大，在这些行业内我会控制风险，通过可转债迂回进场。牛市初期不怕赶顶，上涨趋势一旦形成就很难...

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Comment（23）

nomore
·2020-12-27
你投你的，我投我的，吹什麼吹
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CKmelt
·2020-12-27
我們有全球四分之一的人口？
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-12-27
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haidaer
·2020-12-27
酒壯熊人膽，剛喝完茅臺就來瞎逼逼
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2
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美国旅游团
·2020-12-27
如果高位接盤被套，這輩子是不可能解套的
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1
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BrotherDeng
·2020-12-27
哈哈哈！都快2021年了，還在說這種鬼話！實現中華民族偉大復興，實現中國製造2052，是靠醬香型科技還是靠濃香型科技呢？
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3
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- 陈友谅:
  都可以强国，而且强身。
  2021-02-02
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谋定而后动
·2020-12-27
如果所有的人都賺錢了，那麼誰在虧錢呢？中國的股市，大多年來，無論熊市還是牛市，都遵循着7虧2平1賺的永恆規律。
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- 王二哥:
  而有得
  2020-12-28
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-12-27
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丹睿
·2020-12-27
好
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皇家LV
·2020-12-27
說的很對、很實在、主要主要克服人性的弱點
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1
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-12-27
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辛巴2008
·2020-12-27
你這不是和新華網對着幹嗎？找人接盤？
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心！如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-12-27
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Ratman
·2020-12-27
Nice sharing
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3
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优惠二百
·2020-12-27
牛市岀期，出貨期
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2
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简单生活888
·2020-12-27
說說你對這篇新聞的看法...
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精研
·2020-12-27
有水準！
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1
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小皮皮猫
·2020-12-27
因爲你有持倉
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3
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我爱我的梦
·2020-12-27
學習，感謝林大師！
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毛师傅爱毛票
·2020-12-27
林大頭，現在想着你們去接盤[笑哭]
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5
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25d459fd
·2020-12-27
今天這裏來了這麼多人，每次看到這麼多人我就高興，因爲沒有你們捧場，中國股市哪來那麼多成交量呢！這句話是重點
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7
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- 哦买噶啦:
  哈哈，因为有可以开心割韭菜了[开心]
  2020-12-27
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Gavinli7
·2020-12-27
中國巴菲特
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1
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如期而至
·2020-12-27
講得對，美股大多數都賺錢，頂部要來了，繼續向上走十年。
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Maotai is worth investing in than gold.","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0c40f9617979eff1ae29ff5319c403f","symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.9,"518880":0.9,"600519":0.9,"DUST":0.9,"GDX":0.9,"GLD":0.9,"IAU":0.9,"NUGT":0.9},"content_text":"核心观点：我们目前处在牛市初期，趋势投资的常识是，当所有人都挣钱了，才是牛市顶部出现的标志。中国的消费品、医药行业内会诞生“下一个茅台”，因为中国有14亿人口基数，但中国的消费品公司的销售额目前远低于海外同类市场。5G通讯、人工智能、新能源等领域也会诞生大牛股，这些是改变我们生活的公司，但是操作起来风险较大，在这些行业内我会控制风险，通过可转债迂回进场。牛市初期 不怕赶顶，上涨趋势一旦形成就很难改变今天我的演讲题目是《牛市中赚大钱，最重要的是什么？》，今天这里来了这么多人，每次看到这么多人我就高兴，因为没有你们捧场，中国股市哪来那么多成交量呢！有些投资者问我对市场的看法，我依然认为现在是牛市初期。我们是来炒股的，我不能说现在是熊市，说熊市就没人来了。我今年57岁了，即使是人造牛市，我也希望能来一个。但是，说牛市初期是我个人的判断，只是一种对趋势的判断。例如过去10年美股指数持续上行，所以我们认为这个趋势是一个牛市。为什么我认为现在是牛市初期呢？因为现在中国股民中有90%的人不挣钱，在这种情况下，认为牛市到达了顶部，我是不赞同的。怎么样是牛市顶部？是当所有人都赚钱了，才到牛市顶部，这属于趋势投资中的常识性概念。但我知道总有一天我会说错，因为顶只有一个，有可能最后说在了顶上。但我今天说牛市，说对的概率还是很大的。就像美股市场，很多机构包括海外投资人认为美股积累了太多涨幅，可能处在顶部阶段，对此我还真不赞同。我认为这种上涨趋势一旦形成就很难改变。“趋势”这个东西说重要很重要，说不重要也不重要，对于我们做投资的人来说，我们要关注当下，今天这个位置会不会赶顶？我认为大概率不会。至于一些方向性的错误，例如选错了行业，那么不管什么市场都会失败，这和牛市、熊市没有关系。我说中国股市现在是牛市，只是看指数的高或低，至于下面的每个细分行业，还是要区别对待。至于牛市初期会走多久，我不好判断，我只能说现在不是牛市顶部，不要怕现在会赶顶。我们国家正在大力发展新能源、智慧城市、芯片等行业，这些行业光靠喊话是不行的，需要拿出真金白银去支持。这些资金是怎么来的？是泡沫堆出来的，任何行业只有出现泡沫，才有大力发展的可能，所以不要怕出现泡沫，我希望股市出现泡沫。至于怎样选择高成长行业？这非常容易，中国现在缺什么？缺高端技术、缺资金，所以我们和欧美国家比那些需要资金推动的产业，例如投资，我们有明显落后的趋势。但按人口基数对比，中国有明显的优势，我们有全球1/4的人口，所以聚焦在“人多”这个优势上做投资就不会出错，这也是为什么我不断强调要找和“嘴巴”相关的公司。在健康、吃饭和消费这方面的投入，穷人和富人的花销差不多，这是刚需，是每个人必须投入的花费。中国人口基数在这摆着呢，抓住这点，就抓住了未来长期趋势的重点。在这点上，我不会说错，中国的14亿人口的医药、饮食和消费是有数据做支撑的，我们在此也做了长期布局。而对于医药行业，我判断中国医药产业还有30年的大发展，30年后我不知道，而像新能源、5G、AI、智慧城市、人工智能等行业也都是未来的投资方向，但我觉得风险较高，所以不会长期投资，而会通过可转债迂回的参与。相比之下，我认为金融、地产板块则存在着一定风险。我认为它们的估值相对较高，因为中国的银行和地产的利润已经做到了全球第一，没有理由再说它们便宜。便宜和贵是一个基本的判断，比较典型的便宜的行业，例如医药，我们国家的医药企业只有国外的百分之一不到，这是估值便宜的一个体现。但金融和地产行业中，这些企业已经把钱挣到了，估值相对来说就不便宜了。“消费品估值过高”的判断大概率是错的，“下一个茅台”可能就在消费和医疗健康领域前段时间有个记者采访我说，有一篇研究报告中提到“不为消费品唱赞歌”，作者的意思是消费品目前的股价太高了，对此我的第一反应是，他说错的概率很大，这是在跟全球过去几十年的规律作对。中国有14亿人口，现在消费品公司的这点销售额你都说高了，那我们的消费品公司就无法赶超国外同类公司了。雅培公司在过去几十年间，股价上涨了几万倍，只要员工拿得住，现在都是大富翁。相比之下，中国的同类公司市值小太多了。如果有哪个愣头青说茅台要跌，我敢说茅台不会。茅台比黄金的投资价值还高，茅台是黄金的爷爷，因为黄金买得到，茅台酒买不到。但还是那句话，顶部只有一个。对我来说，我当初1块钱买的，现在能分3块钱的红利，这是很好的生意，所以我不会卖。在产品还没有生产出来的时候，就有货车在门口等着运走的只有茅台，全球就这一家。也有投资人问我，下一个茅台会出现在哪里？我认为，茅台是消费品，消费品有产生大牛股的基因。还有我一直说的和人口有关系的医疗健康领域，一定会出现大牛股。至于短期内，我们会看到很多涨幅超过茅台的公司，但长期能够获胜的不是这些公司。另外，包括人工智能、新能源、5G通讯等行业，它们会改变我们的生活，也会出现大牛股，但就怕投资者抓不住。而从生活中去发现，投资一些和“嘴巴”相关的公司最简单。判断企业估值贵不贵要看核心产品，要刨开其他产品的收入，看主营产品的ROE高不高，投资者要火眼金睛的从财报中把企业核心的1-2个产品挑出来，这些核心产品的ROE高才是真正的好公司。如果说PE整体升幅大了，确实是风险因素，买入的时候要小心。如果是自己挣的钱，或者已经在市场上挣了很多钱了，对于这样的公司可以闭着眼睛买，出错的概率非常小。但如果是一个新手的话，还是应该相对谨慎，可能会承受不住市场的波动，做出卖出的操作。我没有遇到过在PE很贵的时候对看好的企业做布局的情况，因为我不在很热的时候，去投资一个行业。一家企业的PE较高，是因为盈利没有发挥出来，如果盈利发挥出来，PE会随之降低，所以我们要对企业未来的持续盈利能力有一个准确地判断。就像一些核心的消费品龙头企业，市场认为，目前的PE可能较高了，需要几十年才能回本，但这取决于投资者怎么看待，我个人相信企业的大股东，他们在过去几十年中帮企业赚了钱，值得相信。可转债目前价格合适，未来12个月机会不错明年该干什么，当下该干什么，是我们做投资要研究的重点。做长期投资，我想着20年后发财，但20年时间太慢了。当下我做的是“炒股票”，我是炒家出身，一些热门的行业我都炒。那么炒股的过程中就要研究未来6-12个月的市场规律，我知道未来12个月钱会流向哪里。今天我在埋伏着什么行业呢？我认为未来有可能炒作资金会去的，比如清洁能源、新能源、环保、智能家居、5G通信等行业，这些行业中总有一个是这些炒家会去参与的。但炒股是存在风险的，首先是千万别在一些破公司上炒成股东。另外，风险是我们看不到的，我们炒股研究的相对短期的趋势，一家企业未来几年的发展，我可能看不到，但未来几个月甚至1年的好坏我能看到，所以炒股的风险相对较小。那么怎么去操作这些短线的投资呢？这里面是有方法的，不要去炒作正股，在注册制实施后，这类上市公司数量会越来越多，炒作这些股票失败的概率更大，包括我说的那些行业，亏钱的概率比赚钱的概率更大。好的方法是我去年在《红周刊》投资峰会上讲到的，大家可以投资可转债，现在各个行业的公司都发了可转债，我们就对各个行业的可转债做了配置，构建了一个可转债组合，其中包含了30只到50只可转债。每年短线资金都会在可转债里面炒作，所以我就在里面等着，只要我提到的行业中的上市公司不是都倒闭了，就有可能收获很高的收益。过去12个月，有几只可转债我已经来回做了4次了，每次都挣30%多。按照今天这个价格，可转债是有很好的机会的，对于想布局的投资者来说，要大胆埋伏，不要怕，敢做才是对的，目前投资可转债的风险是非常小的。如果做组合的话，跌到90元就买，甚至在106元以下我认为都是安全的，然后涨到30%就卖出。在座的各位都不是大机构的资金量，这些钱完全可以容下。当然也要筛选一下，选择那些发展前景还不错的公司，例如人工智能、通信行业的公司。这个可转债组合里面包含了各个行业，所以一定是行的，所有行业都沦陷的只有2018年，碰到2018年的情况，采用我这个办法也是亏损的，只会亏损的比例比指数少一点。但2021年不会像2018年一样，今天的可转债价格是很合适的。而且如果有的可转债一直不赚钱，大不了按照债券来处理；有的时候正股涨了几倍，可转债也会跟着上涨，涨幅不会小于股票。所以投资者如果惧怕风险，投资可转债是一个很好的方法。在资本市场上挣钱要找到诀窍，我就要做一些弯腰捡钱的事，现在就是弯腰捡钱的机会。但长期来看，这不是我们的目标，长远的目标是挣企业长期发展的钱。先挣百分之十几，赚了钱才会无往而不利在股市中挣企业发展的钱，最关键的是什么？我认为，如果你是苦命的人，你之前炒股没挣到什么钱，首先要做的是疗伤，不要惧怕股市，你先在短期内把钱挣了，先挣个百分之十几；然后去炒一炒，再遇到个大牛市，挣个几倍也不出奇。投资者在股市上亏钱了，损失的不光是资金，还有斗志，很多人甚至不敢去看股票账户，这就很难享受牛市的上涨。我听到一个人亏了钱，我也很头疼，我喜欢那些赚了钱的人，因为他们赚了钱后愿意赌一把，反而越赌越赢。在中国股市中操作，说是赌也对，说是投资也对，这两者之间没有明确的界限。只要我们算清楚风险再去赌，就是获益的机会。所以在投资中，我们的实际方法很简单，就是把风险规避做到极致。疫情最严重的时候，我要求我们公司的“穷人”——就是那些资产在3000万以下的人，都买一个1年期的健康保险，我担心他们在上班的途中或者跑业务的过程中患上新冠肺炎。我很惧怕风险。另外，对于手里的股票涨幅不小的投资者来说，想要坚定持股也很难，这是基因的问题。有些人觉得天能塌下来，我们就觉得天塌不下来，这是基因决定的东西，也没什么办法。不过你们要相信老林，我没有说错过。现在最重要的是知道自己该干什么。最近，我有个同学，说要离婚，我说你不该现在离婚，你就20多万块钱，离婚了就没有了，也错过了很好的资金上涨的阶段，但他还是离了。如果最开始他听我的话做投资，我做的最好的那几年他都赶上了，所以他对不起老林，他把钱花了。我还有一个同学，在1990年的时候生孩子，我当时给他包了一个1000元的红包，我们那天开玩笑说，当年的1000元钱相当于现在给了他1个亿。所以要坚定持有，长期持有，雪球是越滚越大的。但后来我和那个同学说，我说你的人生观是对的，赚的钱就是用来花的，只是这让我们这些喜欢金钱的人有点沮丧。今天来说，我希望你们都赚钱，你们今天能够赚到钱我非常高兴。市场有人说我割韭菜，但我说的很多东西都是公开资料，看好和“嘴巴”相关的企业的数据也都是公开的。我希望把我的方法分享给你们，给你们一点启发，再加上你们的勤奋和坚持，再能够克服人性的贪婪，就能获得长期不错的回报。最怕克服不了贪婪，今天早上我遇到一个投资者，他说买我们的基金是为了做配置，我说你现在说好是做配置，就怕最后不做配置，去做别的去了。很多人以为自己能够控制住风险，做到的没有几个人，最终都变成了亏损。所以控制自己的情绪也很重要。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":339739328,"gmtCreate":1609082474164,"gmtModify":1704977288442,"author":{"id":"3517624855774164","authorId":"3517624855774164","name":"nomore","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbff740ab1c9eecde7389e74af95baac","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3517624855774164","authorIdStr":"3517624855774164"},"htmlText":"你投你的，我投我的，吹什麼吹","listText":"你投你的，我投我的，吹什麼吹","text":"你投你的，我投我的，吹什麼吹","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"pape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