美联储什么时候减码宽松？关注这个关键节点

金十数据2021-04-20

潮起潮落，道法自然。通胀预期之下，巴西、俄罗斯、土耳其等央行已经开启加息之旅。身处零利率的美国近期经济数据强劲回升，但联储依然按兵不动。其货币政策何时退出，能否实现软着陆，成为疫后全球经济及政策是否正常化的关键，并将对市场产生重要影响。一、何时退潮？就业和通胀是决定货币政策退潮的两个核心变量，但当下都受到疫苗接种进程的影响。例如，圣路易斯联储主席布拉德明确表示，成功地让75%的美国人接种疫苗是...

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馒头卡喉咙啦
·2021-04-21
減
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花喵喵
·2021-04-21
[噓]
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SunnyLeo
·2021-04-21
股市脆弱啊
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aiorbits
·2021-04-21
可以再走一走
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- SunnyLeo:
  走哪去？
  2021-04-21
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勇敢的謝爾頓
·2021-04-21
[驚訝]
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被幸运女神眷顾的男人
·2021-04-20
?
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RichardWong
·2021-04-20
好黑啊
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虎来虎去
·2021-04-20
?
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小虎一只
·2021-04-20
Like and comment. Thanks ?
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凡落尘
·2021-04-20
[財迷]
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SiangTee
·2021-04-20
[微笑]
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- EdwardLiu:
  [财迷]
  2021-04-20
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Data\n二、如何退潮？\n回顾上一轮的货币政策退出，2013年5月伯南克首次提及缩减购债，直到当年12月才开启退出，该过程经历了7个月左右。相较而言，当前各项经济指标的改善速率将显著快于2013年，且通胀将持续高于2%的传统目标。\n本轮量宽政策退出的速度或快于2013年同期，不排除四季度开始退出的可能。当然，在退出操作之前，往往有一个市场不断预期退出和联储引导讨论的升温过程，可能会发生在今年夏季全民免疫的前后。\n图2． 政策退出的步骤\n\n来源：Wind\n值得一提的是，政策退出影响最为剧烈的时刻，并非联储“真金白银”开始操作的阶段，而是该预期升温的时候。此时，长端利率往往呈现明显上升的态势。而当联储真正进行退出操作时，长端利率反而可能由于前期的过度调整进而出现涨幅趋缓。当然，联邦基金利率的调整可能要等到明后年。\n图3． 政策退出的影响\n\n来源：Wind\n三、基本结论\n一是就业和通胀是决定货币政策退潮的两个核心变量，但当下都受到疫苗接种进程的影响。据医学专家初步预计，今年夏季前后美国及部分欧洲国家可能实现全民免疫，这个时点或许就是美国经济进一步好转及美联储开始释放量化宽松政策退出信号的起点。\n二是历史来看，美联储退出量化宽松政策影响最剧烈的时期，并非其“真金白银”开始操作的阶段，而是在此之前市场不断预期以及联储公开讨论的时候，这时长端利率显著抬升。而当联储真正进行退出量宽政策操作时，长端利率反而可能出现涨幅趋缓现象。\n三是展望未来，就业仍是比通胀更能影响联储政策退出的因素，尤其是改变2%通胀容忍度的制度框架后。随着夏季全民免疫的临近，市场和联储有关政策退出的讨论或将在该时点前后升温，可能引致其长端利率继续上行，预示全球经济与政策进一步正常化。\n\n本文来自新浪财经意见领袖专栏，作者伍戈","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":371594594,"gmtCreate":1618959435818,"gmtModify":1704717383943,"author":{"id":"3576125208282503","authorId":"3576125208282503","authorIdStr":"3576125208282503","name":"馒头卡喉咙啦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3661a8bd6543d698929e7f6942179db","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576125208282503"},"htmlText":"減","listText":"減","text":"減","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/371594594","repostId":2128581952,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":371508338,"gmtCreate":1618958379424,"gmtModify":1704717362404,"author":{"id":"3567731939595703","authorId":"3567731939595703","authorIdStr":"3567731939595703","name":"花喵喵","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee1b9176bceb20048df5e91a628ddf41","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3567731939595703"},"htmlText":"[噓]&nbsp;","listText":"[噓]&nbsp;","text":"[噓]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/371508338","repostId":2128581952,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":371503218,"gmtCreate":1618958142034,"gmtModify":1704717361753,"author":{"id":"3574831020474056","authorId":"3574831020474056","authorIdStr":"3574831020474056","name":"SunnyLeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e6a3a9725451bfd426b0bdbb68be5","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a8758340a08196056f8bc1e54805193","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574831020474056"},"htmlText":"股市脆弱啊","listText":"股市脆弱啊","text":"股市脆弱啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/371503218","repostId":2128581952,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":371299890,"gmtCreate":1618935597210,"gmtModify":1704717234945,"author":{"id":"3572861058339164","authorId":"3572861058339164","authorIdStr":"3572861058339164","name":"aiorbits","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5430cbf4ef6503c03b466f4bc195a332","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572861058339164"},"htmlText":"可以再走一走","listText":"可以再走一走","text":"可以再走一走","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/371299890","repostId":2128581952,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4086626,"gmtCreate":1618958162071,"gmtModify":1680784857132,"authorId":3574831020474056,"author":{"id":3574831020474056,"authorId":3574831020474056,"name":"SunnyLeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e6a3a9725451bfd426b0bdbb68be5","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":371299890,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"走哪去？","text":"走哪去？","html":"走哪去？"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":371204724,"gmtCreate":1618935359468,"gmtModify":1704717230980,"author":{"id":"3572783242188448","authorId":"3572783242188448","authorIdStr":"3572783242188448","name":"勇敢的謝爾頓","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572783242188448"},"htmlText":"[驚訝]&nbsp;","listText":"[驚訝]&nbsp;","text":"[驚訝]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/371204724","repostId":2128581952,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":371602078,"gmtCreate":1618929445894,"gmtModify":1704717095391,"author":{"id":"3574308930111981","authorId":"3574308930111981","authorIdStr":"3574308930111981","name":"被幸运女神眷顾的男人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce1f94e85c864b88db709bfc3c7a74f","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574308930111981"},"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/371602078","repostI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