美联储的下一步：“按兵不动”

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美联储的下一步：“按兵不动”

钟正生经济分析2021-04-26

美国时间4月28日(北京时间4月29日凌晨)，美联储4月FOMC议息会议将至。在这之前，不妨对现阶段美国与国际经济环境、以及美联储正在承受的“压力”，做一些思考。虽然距离3月议息会议仅过去一个多月，但期间美国与全球经济环境又生变化。具体有四方面变化，可能使维持宽松的美联储承受更大压力。一是，3月经济数据显著好于2月，美国或位于经济复苏的“转折点”。截至目前，美国3月重点经济数据(如非农就业、...

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Comment（16）

VersaillesLi
·2021-04-27
不動
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1
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hhyw
·2021-04-27
敢敢起息, 讓瘋狂的股市大跌吧????
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53570b80
·2021-04-27
因勢利導變隨時[勝利]
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高明兴_8399
·2021-04-27
這就對了
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maigis
·2021-04-27
[666] [看漲]
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Teddy先森
·2021-04-27
說說你對這篇新聞的看法...
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1
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Miaw
·2021-04-27
還會有啥特別
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2
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- jianguang:
  meow
  2021-04-27
  Reply
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alvinmok
·2021-04-26
2
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2
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HANDM
·2021-04-26
還能怎樣
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3
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- slsong:
  [开心]
  2021-04-26
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aiorbits
·2021-04-26
他們就是存在
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2
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Ra1012
·2021-04-26
[微笑]
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- Ra1012:
  [微笑]
  2021-05-03
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- Vivi911:
  [呆住]
  2021-04-28
  Reply
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- Vivi911:
  [微笑]
  2021-04-27
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银色蚂蚁
·2021-04-26
不動就是大動
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- kimxuan:
  回复谢谢
  2021-04-26
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JackieSG
·2021-04-26
[得意]
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无欲2057
·2021-04-26
目前美聯儲絕對不敢縮表！
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fate123
·2021-04-26
加油
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- 阿麦小乔:
  [强]
  2021-04-27
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fate123
·2021-04-26
1
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point)，“我们感觉我们正处在一个经济增长速度将大大加快、就业机会将大大增加的阶段。”\n\n二是，3月以来国际大宗商品价格走强，再度加剧通胀压力。近期大宗商品价格继续走高，例如3月以来伦铜和伦铝的价格比2月上了一个“台阶”，而4月以来食品、木材等基础商品涨价更明显，它们与大众消费品价格有较为直接的关联。微观层面，近一周媒体报道了宝洁、可口可乐等零售商巨头正在酝酿涨价，原料价格向终端消费品价格的传导得以印证。\n在此背景下，大众对美国通胀的判断容易陷入分歧：是正如美联储多次强调的“暂时走高”，还是供需矛盾将客观持续，又或者(由于“价格粘性”)物价上涨可能具有长期性。近一周媒体公布了鲍威尔在4月8日致参议员的信件，信中表示，不会允许通胀大幅超过2%，也不会允许通胀长时间超过2%，其言论似乎对通胀多了几分谨慎、少了几分此前的“淡定”。\n\n三是，近期美债利率和美元指数下行，为政策转向创造了更大空间。3月议息会议前，10年美债利率骤然攀升并引发股市震荡调整，当时市场还在期待美联储通过扭曲操作(OT)来救市，或至少宣布SLR延期。但4月以来，美债利率和美元指数均呈现下行走势，股市表现强劲。反而微观层面上，近期加密货币“大行其道”、瑞银受对冲基金爆仓拖累等事件，或反映出金融风险可能正在升温。无论如何，现阶段美联储政策转向所受束缚，至少比上月要小。\n四是，他国央行近期在政策转向上更积极，可能制造一些“同辈压力”。3月17-19日巴西、土耳其和俄罗斯央行已为全球加息“打前站”。4月21日加拿大央行宣布开始缩减资产购买规模，且对加息时点的预期从2023年提前到2022年下半年。\n4月23日俄罗斯央行继续加息50bp至5%，加息幅度超预期的25bp。欧洲央行政策转向的路线图比美联储更清晰，其明确表示紧急抗疫购债计划(PEPP)或持续至2022年3月底。事实上，美国疫苗推广领跑全球，经济复苏的势头不比其他经济体弱，美联储比“同行”们更加温和，或容易引起质疑。\n不过综合考虑，我们认为，美联储4月议息会议大概率仍会选择“按兵不动”(不讨论削减QE)。\n首先，3月经济数据发展势头不错、但绝对值或仍不足以支撑政策转向。就业方面，3月失业率(6%)与疫情前(3.5%)仍有较大差距;非农就业总人数(约14400万人)与疫情前(约15200万人)相比，仍有800万人的缺口;3月“小非农”(ADP就业)缺口约为900万人;近一周初请失业金人数和续请人数，分别仍为疫情前水平的2.5倍和2倍。\n\n其次，近期全球疫情反扑，或为美国经济复苏再添变数。3月下旬欧洲疫情抬头，多国在封锁中度过复活节;4月以来、尤其近两周，亚洲地区疫情反扑，印度、日本等大型经济体受到更明显的冲击，全球经济复苏进程可能又被拖缓，美国或难独善其身。\n同时，美联储近期也表达出对疫情风险的关注。鲍威尔在4月8日的IMF春季会议上表达对全球疫苗接种不同步的担忧;其在4月11日的采访中表示疫情重现是经济复苏前景面临的主要风险。在全球疫情反复的背景下，经济复苏势头的可持续性仍存变数，美联储的信心可能受限。\n\n最后，从美联储近期释放的信号看，讨论缩减QE时点未至。吸取了2013年伯南克的经验，鲍威尔多次表示削减QE前将释放大量信号，但近期的信号十分有限(仅达拉斯联储卡普兰在4月8日发表了“鹰派”言论)。圣路易斯联储布拉德在4月7日表示，对缩减QE的讨论可能将在疫苗接种率达到75%时提上日程。\n根据我们的测算，美国实现75%人群接种需要到7月以后。此外，值得注意的是，未来一段时间美联储议息会议的频率较高，4月、6月和7月分别有三次会议。因此，美联储在6月或7月议息会议开始讨论缩减QE，或是更合理的选择。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":374472024,"gmtCreate":1619479527168,"gmtModify":1704724453430,"author":{"id":"3580330978833195","authorId":"3580330978833195","name":"VersaillesLi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca74aeaa97cb87febbf8247318cbb951","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3580330978833195","idStr":"3580330978833195"},"htmlText":"不動","listText":"不動","text":"不動","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/374472024","repostId":2130392457,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":374441234,"gmtCreate":1619479035528,"gmtModify":1704724437182,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3561544476596136","idStr":"3561544476596136"},"htmlText":"敢敢起息, 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