渣打：金价下半年面临两大风险，比特币无法取代黄金

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渣打：金价下半年面临两大风险，比特币无法取代黄金

腾讯美股2021-06-28

近日，美联储在议息会议结束后宣布维持联邦基金利率和购债规模不变，但同时大幅上调通胀预期。同时，点阵图显示，美联储将在2023年前加息2次。这一改变，令市场担忧美联储转向鹰派，从而引发市场大幅动荡，金价暴跌至1800美元以下。金价是否进入了下行通道？金价下半年将何去何从？对此，渣打银行中国财富管理部首席投资策略师王昕杰表示，目前对于黄金是持中性的观点，因为2021年下半年他们预计有可能会接收到...

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R168
·2021-06-29
買你的黃金去
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1
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林九九
·2021-06-29
[齜牙]
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追高风
·2021-06-29
各有各自飛
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Wishonest
·2021-06-29
加密貨幣它還是個孩子!放開它
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- YourCFP:
  打屁股
  2021-06-30
  Reply
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X7RAFK
·2021-06-28
hdh
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KeeYep
·2021-06-28
加油！
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我还是从前内个少年
·2021-06-28
好
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- Jerry6666:
  好
  2021-06-28
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2个百分点。但是有另外一部分声音所表达出的是如果撤出财政刺激，能不能达到充分就业的目标还是一个未知数，同时通胀的压力没有办法被抵消，因为超发的货币覆水难收，这增加了滞涨的风险。\n通胀的持续升温会支持金价，但是正如鲍威尔所说的通胀因素可以通过一系列因素缓解，未来的经济增长会带动真实利率的升高，在两方面作用下，我们维持了对于黄金中立的观点。\n问：美债收益率为何近来不断下跌？这一趋势是否会推动美元下行，从而为金价提供支持？\n王昕杰：近期的美债收益率在通胀预期的见顶回落之后有所下降，短期内随着QE缩减的预期越来越高，以及焦点重新回到经济增长，我们也是预计收益率的反弹会是比较大概率的事件。但是更长一段事件维度来看，随着QE缩减所带来的影响消退，我们会看到收益率的见顶回落，美元会回到下降的趋势当中，这也将支持金价。\n问：黄金在下半年面临哪些风险？\n王昕杰：黄金首先面对的风险是QE缩减，造成的收益率水平大幅攀升所带来的负面影响。另外一个风险是QE缩减可能会造成流动性从新兴市场抽离，很多新兴市场会卖出黄金储备来扩充国家外汇储备，以抵挡流动性抽离带来的影响。\n问：世界黄金协会近期的调查显示，21%的央行预计将在未来一年内增加黄金储备，没有央行预计会在今年出售黄金。这是否意味着央行们看好黄金未来的前景？\n王昕杰：有一定程度上的支撑，但是这主要是一种以美元储备向黄金储备转变的过程，另一方面和是流动性充裕之后的配置需求。未来黄金价格的主导因素还是在真实利率和通胀因素所体现出的相互关系上。\n问：比特币和加密货币未来能否取代黄金？\n王昕杰：我认为比特币等加密货币，没有办法取代黄金。首先第一点从流动性来说，黄金是最具有流动性的资产之一，在很多交易所都可以顺畅流动，虽然加密货币市场有所扩张，但是还没有达到这个程度，从监管角度来讲，达到这个程度比较难。\n另外一方面，黄金有避险属性，加密货币仍不具备避险属性，目前是隐含了全球“保值资产”的预期。\n从最近的交易来看，加密货币的投机属性还是过于强，不具体黄金这种作为储备的能力。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":150437493,"gmtCreate":1624924286112,"gmtModify":1703847895834,"author":{"id":"4087909522380260","authorId":"4087909522380260","name":"R168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfc266e015f3b989e208eb6c37bb5c57","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a8758340a08196056f8bc1e54805193","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4087909522380260","authorIdStr":"4087909522380260"},"htmlText":"買你的黃金去","listText":"買你的黃金去","text":"買你的黃金去","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/150437493","repostId":2146880178,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":150551469,"gmtCreate":1624922575551,"gmtModify":1703847819979,"author":{"id":"3569197262209930","authorId":"3569197262209930","name":"林九九","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3569197262209930","authorIdStr":"3569197262209930"},"htmlText":"[齜牙]&nbsp;","listText":"[齜牙]&nbsp;","text":"[齜牙]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/150551469","repostId":2146880178,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":150551319,"gmtCreate":1624922557331,"gmtModify":1703847816430,"author":{"id":"3571463119794412","authorId":"3571463119794412","name":"追高风","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa72a321bdf13eb9d23dc6dbab1ad618","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3571463119794412","authorIdStr":"3571463119794412"},"htmlText":"各有各自飛","listText":"各有各自飛","text":"各有各自飛","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/150551319","repostId":2146880178,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":150224643,"gmtCreate":1624916358582,"gmtModify":1703847666265,"author":{"id":"3582234586447453","authorId":"3582234586447453","name":"Wishonest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/172444fe348e722381bd6cf837b52614","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582234586447453","authorIdStr":"3582234586447453"},"htmlText":"加密貨幣它還是個孩子!放開它","listText":"加密貨幣它還是個孩子!放開它","text":"加密貨幣它還是個孩子!放開它","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/150224643","repostId":2146880178,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5072866,"gmtCreate":1625002815410,"gmtModify":1663230298238,"authorId":3569263461157925,"author":{"id":3569263461157925,"idStr":"3569263461157925","authorId":3569263461157925,"name":"YourCFP","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1f5e965075ba7b03f9c5aade30f04ed","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":150224643,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"打屁股","text":"打屁股","html":"打屁股"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":150879717,"gmtCreate":1624894235239,"gmtModify":1703847414846,"author":{"id":"3585256134306933","authorId":"3585256134306933","name":"X7RAFK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29944e37b3d5a8371e23e9b056a88efd","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3585256134306933","authorIdStr":"3585256134306933"},"htmlText":"hdh","listText":"hdh","text":"hdh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/150879717","repostId":2146880178,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":1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