打脸美联储！美银：“恶性通胀”已不远，牛市正走向终结

腾讯美股2021-06-29

6月29日讯，自从5月初开始，企业第一季度盈利季节的财报会议上，关于“更高的通货膨胀”的种种言辞就不绝于耳，与去年同期相比，通胀言论在企业高管口中出现的频率猛增了800%之多。这也就难怪，美国银行首席股票策略师萨布拉玛尼安（Savita Subramanian）当时也不能不感叹：“从绝对数字角度看，企业在财报会议上提及通货膨胀的频率已经接近2011年的创纪录水平，‘暂时性’的恶性通货膨胀已经在前方...

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风水轮流转该我了
·2021-06-30
隨時準備逃跑
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KenCheng
·2021-06-30
牛
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AB_Iphone
·2021-06-29
Serious?runnnnnn
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- Miaw:
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  2021-06-29
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yuliang559
·2021-06-29
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- yuliang559:
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theng
·2021-06-29
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Bank of America: \"Hyperinflation\" is not far away, and the bull market is coming to an end","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d05e2f581d969bfa9b757bcf658cc5d","symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QID":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DDM":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9},"content_text":"6月29日讯，自从5月初开始，企业第一季度盈利季节的财报会议上，关于“更高的通货膨胀”的种种言辞就不绝于耳，与去年同期相比，通胀言论在企业高管口中出现的频率猛增了800%之多。这也就难怪，美国银行首席股票策略师萨布拉玛尼安（Savita Subramanian）当时也不能不感叹：“从绝对数字角度看，企业在财报会议上提及通货膨胀的频率已经接近2011年的创纪录水平，‘暂时性’的恶性通货膨胀已经在前方不远处了。\n\n一家华尔街大行居然会认真地发出关于恶性通货膨胀的警告，哪怕冠以“暂时性”的前缀，也足以让人们感到不寒而栗了——联储是不是正在失去对价格的控制力？本月早些时候，另外一家大机构德意志银行也发出了明确的警告，说联储对通货膨胀措置不力，使得全球经济坐在了“定时炸弹”上。\n当然，美银还是给自己的论断留下了一点余地，这一点其实也与联储别无二致——归根结底，他们都在强调“暂时性”，而所谓暂时性的定义简直是一条松紧带，毕竟也可能短到只有几周，这就意味着未来强烈的痛苦周期一定程度上还是可控的。\n不过，事情真的这么简单吗？\n尽管对于联储所谓的“暂时性”，市场一直是持高度怀疑态度，但这还是被联储拿来当作了制定货币政策的基础——从目前的点阵信号看，他们要到2023年才加息，而那时候，通货膨胀率很可能已经来到了两位数。不过，联储这一派轻松的论调还是不乏应和者，比如上周五密歇根大学最新发布的消费者情绪调查报告就预言说，飞涨的通货膨胀不会持续太长时间，该校消费者情绪调查经济学家柯尔丁（Richard Curtin）写道：“对未来一年通货膨胀率的预期已经从5月间创下近十年最高纪录的4.6%回落到了4.2%，这主要是因为消费者相信，各种价格的大涨将多半只是暂时性的。”\n可是，就在同一天，美国银行却站出来给所有这一切乐观论调泼下了一盆冷水。该行首席投资策略师、备受业界推崇的哈内特（Michael Hartnett）在研究报告当中写道，美国的价格飞涨很可能将不是暂时性的，而是将持续至少四年。\n哈内特指出，虽然美国通货膨胀率过去一百年的平均水平是3%，新世纪第二个十年的平均水平是2%，而2020年更是只有1%，但是“2021年迄今为止的年化数字已经达到了8%”。他揶揄道：“在刺激、经济增长、资产/商品/住宅通货膨胀实质上已经永久化的情况下，还是有这么多人相信通货膨胀将是暂时性的，这实在是令人摸不着头脑。”\n由于前述因素，美国银行的判断是，“未来两年到四年内，美国通货膨胀率至少也将有2%到4%”，其主要来源便是“资产、商品和住宅通胀”。联储已经开始了豪赌，投入自己的名誉和信用也要让超级宽松的利率机制一直保持到2023年，但是哈内特预言说，“全球央行未来六个月内就将开始紧缩，只有一场大崩盘才可能防止他们这么做”。\n哈内特接着列出了他如此超级鹰派立场的一些具体根据。首先是财政政策泡沫，比如拜登最新的基础设施计划“使得过去十五个月以来全球的货币和金融刺激总规模达到了30.5万亿美元，相当于中国和欧洲的国内生产总值之和”。如果说之前还有人奇怪为什么现在成百上千万人都在失业之中，消费支出却大幅超出疫情爆发之前，答案其实也就在这里。\n随后，这位美银首席投资官对资产膨胀进行了分析，在这个问题上，甚至保守的高盛也不能不承认，与温和的经济膨胀相比，资产膨胀已经过度严重了——尽管经济膨胀其实现在也已经开始上行了。\n\n哈内特还指出，各国央行过去十五个月以来平均每小时就要购入价值9亿美元的金融资产，使得“各种股票和商品这十五个月当中所获得的涨幅极端惊人，足以让之前百年的总体回报黯然失色”，全球股市的总市值在这段时期也涨到了令人头晕目眩的54万亿美元。\n\n还有，虽然商品膨胀已经在过去六个月时间里突飞猛进，但是近期力度丝毫不减，以至于虽然联储已经开始吹鹰派口径的风，哈内特依然预计原油价格将在2022年涨至100美元。\n\n再之后还有住宅膨胀，或者用房地产巨头泽尔曼（Ivy Zelman）的话说，已经可以称得上是“住宅恶性膨胀”了。哈内特指出，房价大涨之风已经吹遍了美国、英国、斯堪迪纳维亚诸国、加拿大、澳大利亚和新西兰，同比涨幅接近30%，可以说是近五十年以来的第四波超级大繁荣了。\n\n在这种局面之下，挪威、丹麦、新西兰、澳大利亚和加拿大央行都转向了“宏观谨慎”政策，比如在制定货币政策时，以飞涨的房价为重要参考——众所周知，联储可不是这样。\n不必说，联储和其他这些央行一手打造的各种资产泡沫，还在让财富不均的情况变得日益严重。虽然央行们不可能承认，但是哈内特明确写道，市场的表现其实几乎总是领先于宏观经济的——换言之，可以视作经济的领先指标，而联储又知道他们自身的能力，只能通过信用利差和股票价格来影响企业和消费者的行为，于是乎，他们的政策完完全全都是在针对华尔街的。\n\n可是，问题在于，从遥远的格林斯潘年代，对长期资本管理公司的“联储对策”式救援以来，华尔街的持续大繁荣正变得与现实经济和普通人的福祉距离日益遥远。正如下图所示，美国金融资产的盘子现在已经相当于国内生产总值的6.3倍。\n\n或者，可以做一些最简单最直观的比较。美股的总市值目前比疫情爆发前高出了27万亿美元，而美国非农支薪人数却比2020年2月少了足足800万。\n哈内特的结论是，“要以量化宽松解决贫富不均问题，简直是缘木求鱼”。其实，联储的人们就真的不明白这一点吗？\n综上所述，哈内特指出，虽然美股几乎每天都在创下历史新高，但是这超级派对现在正在走向散场，而导致其落幕的因素包括高企的通货膨胀，转向鹰派的央行，疲软的经济增长等。加息、监管、再分配的所谓3R走高，头寸、政策、利润的所谓3P见顶将导致股票/信贷下半年的回报变低，甚至成为负数，这就使得做多通货膨胀资产和防御性股票资产的所谓杠铃交易成为最佳选项。\n哈内特这种判断的根据是，在他看来，当前美股市场的买进狂热其实和20世纪60年代晚期颇为相似，“当时，由于财政政策的过剩和联储的屈服，通货膨胀与利率宣告脱钩，结果就是，所谓漂亮50股票与小型价值型股票形成了杠铃，表现要大幅好于债券”。\n\n在分析了20世纪60年代的情况后，哈内特指出，当时的漂亮50股票，其实就相当于今天的大型科技股票：“从1966年到1970年期间，通货膨胀第一波高企时，漂亮50股票表现极为出色，而到了70年代前期，通货膨胀第二波高企时，漂亮50却走到了长期性的顶部，之后就是长达十年表现都不及平均水准了。换言之，FAAMG超越大盘的日子，现在也几乎要结束了。”\n\n（费绿）\n选海通开户，享股市财富，新客专享理财，投资一触即8，点击查看>>","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":153973807,"gmtCreate":1625008141409,"gmtModify":1703849826565,"author":{"id":"3582661567450980","authorId":"3582661567450980","name":"风水轮流转该我了","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d57305cc0a87f564e7bcb8e2500c9a66","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3582661567450980","authorIdStr":"3582661567450980"},"htmlText":"隨時準備逃跑","listText":"隨時準備逃跑","text":"隨時準備逃跑","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153973807","repostId":2147863837,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":153981729,"gmtCreate":1625004902161,"gmtModify":1703849756509,"author":{"id":"3558566101600142","authorId":"3558566101600142","name":"KenCheng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02fdd19f114098870a0ee6a120507fbe","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3558566101600142","authorIdStr":"3558566101600142"},"htmlText":"牛","listText":"牛","text":"牛","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153981729","repostId":2147863837,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":159458414,"gmtCreate":1624977786238,"gmtModify":1703849372685,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574395209516109","authorIdStr":"3574395209516109"},"htmlText":"Serious?runnnnnn","listText":"Serious?runnnnnn","text":"Serious?runnnnnn","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/159458414","repostId":2147863837,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5070727,"gmtCreate":1624977847574,"gmtModify":1663230288439,"authorId":3569028586400878,"author":{"id":3569028586400878,"idStr":"3569028586400878","authorId":3569028586400878,"name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":159458414,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[丢脸]","text":"[丢脸]","html":"[丢脸]"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":159423823,"gmtCreate":1624977453462,"gmtModify":1703849354677,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581663680495191","authorIdStr":"3581663680495191"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/159423823","repostId":2147863837,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5070594,"gmtCreate":1624977460743,"gmtModify":1663230287251,"authorId":3581663680495191,"author":{"id":3581663680495191,"idStr":"3581663680495191","authorId":3581663680495191,"name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":159423823,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[微笑]","text":"[微笑]","html":"[微笑]"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":159467044,"gmtCreat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