通胀“幽灵”挥之不去，前“三把手”称应该加到5%

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通胀“幽灵”挥之不去，前“三把手”称应该加到5%

华尔街见闻2022-05-12

在美国4月CPI数据高于预期后，美联储官员面临采取更激进行动的压力。到目前为止，官员们的基本口径仍是在接下来的两次会议上每次都加息50基点，但不排除一次加息75基点。今年拥有联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)投票权的圣路易斯联储主席布拉德（James Bullard）周三在接受雅虎财经采访时表示：“我们已经制定了一个计划，在上次会议上是加息50个基点，并为未来的会议做准备。我认为这是目前的一个很好的...

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hhang
·2022-05-13
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Youn7276
·2022-05-13
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Youn7276
·2022-05-13
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Mingzu
·2022-05-13
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Mingzu
·2022-05-13
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瀚妈
·2022-05-12
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·2022-05-12
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Bullard）周三在接受雅虎财经采访时表示：“我们已经制定了一个计划，在上次会议上是加息50个基点，并为未来的会议做准备。我认为这是目前的一个很好的基准情况。”当被问及是否有必要升息75个基点时，布拉德表示，这不是他的基本考虑。根据联邦基金期货市场的定价，投资者似乎同意不太可能加息75个基点的说法。但在4月美国CPI报告显示核心CPI同环比增幅均超预期后，交易员加大了对美联储将在9月份再次加息50个基点的押注。美联储上周已经加息50个基点，鲍威尔在发布会上暗示在接下来的两次FOMC会议上也将采取同样的措施，同时为必要时采取更多行动留下了空间。布拉德表示，通胀报告显示，物价压力比许多人预期的更广泛、更持久，而明年拥有FOMC会议投票权的亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克（Raphael Bostic）在不同地区的另一场活动中表示，如果通胀继续保持目前的增长速度，他将“支持更多行动”。据彭博报道，美联储观察人士表示，4月的CPI数据并不符合美联储的预期，围绕更大举措的叙述可能会开始转变，尤其是如果5月通胀报告依旧很火热的话。该报告将于6月10日发布，先于6月14-15日的FOMC会议。派杰投资公司Piper Sandler & Co.全球政策研究主管Roberto Perli在给客户的报告中写道：“这应该会让投资者和FOMC重新考虑关于75个基点的讨论。现在判断美联储在6月将采取什么行动还为时过早，因为在会议前几天还有另一份CPI报告，但现在相对于似乎已成定局的50个基点，加息幅度存在上行风险。”投资机构III Capital Management的首席经济学家Karim Basta在给客户的电子邮件中表示：“偏离指引的门槛很高，但今天的结果肯定不是美联储设想的那样。鲍威尔的评论为‘改变行动留有余地’，下一份通胀报告将‘非常重要’。今年拥有FOMC会议投票权的克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特周二已经表示，她支持在接下来的几次会议上加息50基点，然后根据通胀情况加快或放慢加息步伐。周二在接受彭博电视采访时，梅斯特说：“我们不会永久排除一次加息75基点的可能性，在我看来，我们现在的节奏是正确的，我们将不得不评估通胀是否真的在下降，在我们进行几次这样的50基点的加息后，我们将能够获得更多的信息。”瑞银投资银行(UBS Investment Bank)高级美国经济学家Pablo Villanueva表示，如果未来的报告显示通胀开始走弱，政策制定者可能会在9月份更温和地加息25个基点。Villanueva说：“我们认为9月份通胀将与当前形势有较大变化。但如果通胀持续高企，9月升息50基点的风险将增加。”前“三把手”表态：美联储应加息至5%或更高就美联储应升息至多高以缓解物价压力，2009年至2018年担任纽约联储主席的的威廉·杜德利（William Dudley）周三在接受彭博采访表示：“我认为应该加息至4-5%或更高，大概六个月前，我支持加息到3%至4%。现在我觉得应该加息到4-5%，如果几个月后我认为已经加息到5%到6%，我不会感到震惊。”杜德利还表示，美联储应该更坦诚地向公众传达要控制通胀需要加息至多高，以及这将造成多大的痛苦。官员们一直表示，他们认为可以实现经济软着陆，在打压通胀的同时避免经济衰退或失业率急剧上升，但杜德利认为这样的措辞可能弊大于利。他说：“美联储必须充分收紧货币政策，以减缓经济增长并推高失业率。这是必需的，我认为美联储应该更坦率地向美国公众解释这一点。如果你开始给它涂上糖衣，那么金融状况就不会那么收紧，而且还会面临人们对美联储失去信心的风险。”","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9067001018,"gmtCreate":1652392607434,"gmtModify":1676535088787,"author":{"id":"3580606618017089","authorId":"3580606618017089","name":"hhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/547181a55fcbccc02ca35be22b4cca16","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3580606618017089","authorIdStr":"3580606618017089"},"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9067001018","repostId":2234397154,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9064779103,"gmtCreate":1652390773302,"gmtModify":1676535088522,"author":{"id":"3577393549070429","authorId":"3577393549070429","name":"Youn7276","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/487c5c26a5e210d6b88adaeaba12329b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577393549070429","authorIdStr":"3577393549070429"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9064779103","repostId":2234397154,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9064779392,"gmtCreate":1652390764617,"gmtModify":1676535088513,"author":{"id":"3577393549070429","authorId":"3577393549070429","name":"Youn7276","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/487c5c26a5e210d6b88adaeaba12329b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577393549070429","authorIdStr":"3577393549070429"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9064779392","repostId":2234397154,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9064720094,"gmtCreate":1652371528918,"gmtModify":1676535087645,"author":{"id":"3582685386479633","authorId":"3582685386479633","name":"Mingzu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c629c36c53878360c505d837193f9e79","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582685386479633","authorIdStr":"3582685386479633"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9064720094","repostId":2234397154,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9064767734,"gmtCreate":1652371523128,"gmtModify":1676535087637,"author":{"id":"3582685386479633","authorId":"3582685386479633","name":"Mingzu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c629c36c53878360c505d837193f9e79","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582685386479633","authorIdStr":"3582685386479633"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9064767734","repostId":2234397154,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9064786460,"gmtCreate":1652369963950,"gmtModify":1676535087279,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"瀚妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575347610709013","authorIdStr":"3575347610709013"},"htmlText":"J","listText":"J","text":"J","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9064786460","repostId":2234397154,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9064786563,"gmtCreate":1652369954852,"gmtModify":1676535087271,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"瀚妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575347610709013","authorIdStr":"3575347610709013"},"htmlText":"I","listText":"I","text":"I","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"rep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