美股电商股被超卖！是时候抄底了？

智通财经网2022-07-04

曾一度受益于疫情红利的知名企业Shopify、Etsy、Revolve Group和Wayfair在今年迄今都下降了50%或更多。此外，The RealReal、ThredUp和Rent The Runway这样依赖网购的小型公司的表现也不太好，其中一些公司的跌幅甚至超过80%，就连电商巨头亚马逊也未能幸免，其庞大的业务涵盖了其旗舰电商业务之外的众多行业，但该公司今年年中销售额下滑幅度仍超过...

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Paggie
·2022-07-05
閱
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马甲
·2022-07-05
還早
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chtan1117
·2022-07-05
Up
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努力赚小钱钱
·2022-07-05
好的
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怂人得志
·2022-07-05
🤔
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CSNeo
·2022-07-05
[開心]
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Jerryc_hi
·2022-07-05
read
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是龙不是虫
·2022-07-04
好
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小颖5500
·2022-07-04
這篇文章不錯，轉發給大家看
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Hsu对最新调查结果评论道:“不同收入、年龄、教育程度、地理区域、政治党派、股票持有情况和住房状况的消费者(情绪)都出现了大幅下降，消费者对长期通货膨胀的不确定性也达到了1991年以来的最高水平，从2021年开始持续大幅上升。”调查还显示，79%的消费者预计未来一年的商业环境会很糟糕，47%的受访者将他们生活水平的下降归因于通货膨胀，这也与“大衰退”时期的数据一致。据了解，随着通货膨胀加剧和油价持续飙升，将导致生活水平的下降，即使避免了严重的经济衰退，消费者也会勒紧裤腰带过日子。因此，许多分析师甚至对今年迄今电商股的大幅下跌持谨慎态度，认为这是底部的迹象。根据瑞银的数据，自春季以来，近期经济衰退的可能性翻了一番，达到26%。尽管衰退程度尚不确定，但该行表示，即便是2001年那种较为温和的情景，也意味着电商股将持续下行。据了解，该行在一份研报中将eBay(EBAY.US)和Farfetch(FTCH.US)评级从“买入”下调为“中性”，亚马逊、Etsy、the  RealReal、StitchFix、ContextLogic和MYT  Netherlands目标价也被下调。然而，并非所有人都对互联网零售的前景感到悲观。为了应对新冠疫情，美联储为了刺激经济展开前所未有的刺激措施，而美国消费者的个人储蓄也在疫情后激增。据Raymond  James估计，这些措施导致逾2万亿美元的过剩储蓄流向美国消费者。该银行估计，在这个惊人的数字中，只有大约10%的过剩资金被新消费群体使用。图3此外，尽管业务的不确定性不断增加，科技公司高管也发表了谨慎的声明，但失业率仍处于历史最低水平。事实上，在过去两年中，新冠疫情裁员期间出现的失业率激增已经急剧翻转，使劳动力市场恢复到令人难以置信的紧张状态。图4如果通胀像更为乐观的经济学家所预期的那样开始从峰值回落，那么综合来看，这些指标表明，尽管消费者信心下降，但可以说消费者仍相对强劲。美股电商股能抄底吗?麦肯锡最近的一份报告指出，市场对经济逆风的潜在高估，与对日常在线零售的低估相吻合。根据这家咨询公司的数据，在受疫情管控期间，美国电子商务使用量增长到疫情前平均水平的3.3倍，尤其对于西班牙和英国等欧洲市场，影响甚至更大。此外，据该公司最新报告指出，疫情开始时，人们没有太多选择，就开始成群结队地在网上购物。但事实证明，许多人喜欢电子商务提供的便利。即使实体店重新开张，在线渠道的支出也在继续攀升。数据显示，自疫情开始以来，电子商务支出同比增长了27%，总渗透率增加了33%。由此可见，消费者仍有弹性，网上消费比许多人预期的要高。因此，当前电商股的抛售规模很有可能是市场反应过度。Raymond James分析师Rick  Patel表示：“我们开始报道的9家公司今年迄今股价平均下跌了57%，而纳斯达克指数下跌了26%。这让我们相信，大部分坏消息已被市场消化。我们根据对约600名消费者的调查，创建了一个投资建议框架，以确定哪些公司出现了超卖(这些公司的未来基本面可能会改善)。”在推荐的股票中，Etsy、Revolve Group、realreal、ThredUp、Rent the  Runway(RENT.US)和Brilliant Earth被评为“买入”。医疗服装供应商Figs  Inc.被评为“强力买入”，因为该公司的股票被认为出现了远远超出其应有水平的过度抛售。对此，Patel总结道：“尽管宏观上存在不确定性，但这已经预示着一种可怕的局面，而且我们认为市场已经消化了大量的坏消息。此外，我们相信风险/回报有利于上涨，尤其是对那些在我们投资框架中符合最多条件的高质量公司。”","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9070931355,"gmtCreate":1656991537277,"gmtModify":1676535929004,"author":{"id":"4111640372193142","authorId":"4111640372193142","name":"Paggie","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/34e78ada667e7b63c0632c8f2d0fc95f","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4111640372193142","authorIdStr":"4111640372193142"},"htmlText":"閱","listText":"閱","text":"閱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9070931355","repostId":2248395818,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":681646732,"gmtCreate":1656987447928,"gmtModify":1676533300704,"author":{"id":"3492666186842287","authorId":"3492666186842287","name":"马甲","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0313a49e0eab3259826c3cbaa473b1c4","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3492666186842287","authorIdStr":"3492666186842287"},"htmlText":"還早","listText":"還早","text":"還早","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/681646732","repostId":2248395818,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9047774558,"gmtCreate":1656980969874,"gmtModify":1676535925740,"author":{"id":"4115287294558852","authorId":"4115287294558852","name":"chtan1117","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/49bee9759e1095d02224a339bd7f3d49","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4115287294558852","authorIdStr":"4115287294558852"},"htmlText":"Up","listText":"Up","text":"Up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9047774558","repostId":2248395818,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":681626774,"gmtCreate":1656977529801,"gmtModify":1676533300078,"author":{"id":"3567292705753312","authorId":"3567292705753312","name":"努力赚小钱钱","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb8d09877fd2ccef5558a32670cf19d1","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3567292705753312","authorIdStr":"3567292705753312"},"htmlText":"好的","listText":"好的","text":"好的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/681626774","repostId":2248395818,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9047425804,"gmtCreate":1656973591808,"gmtModify":1676535922545,"author":{"id":"4115268343523852","authorId":"4115268343523852","name":"怂人得志","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07c185e1405f47c08145e72f8338a07a","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4115268343523852","authorIdStr":"4115268343523852"},"htmlText":"🤔","listText":"🤔","text":"🤔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9047425804","repostId":2248395818,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9047438573,"gmtCreate":1656958734292,"gmtModify":1676535921476,"author":{"id":"3582532713393731","authorId":"3582532713393731","name":"CSNeo","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/edfed0645bc1915131a193d511cf50f9","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582532713393731","authorIdStr":"3582532713393731"},"htmlText":"[開心]&nbsp;","listText":"[開心]&nbsp;","text":"[開心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9047438573","repostId":2248395818,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9047496185,"gmtCreate":1656952995147,"gmtModify":1676535921266,"author":{"id":"4102210854556020","authorId":"4102210854556020","name":"Jerryc_hi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7db6afb232ab7ba571692fd0fcd383e6","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4102210854556020","authorIdStr":"4102210854556020"},"htmlText":"read","listText":"read","text":"read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/90474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