二季度财报季“凶多吉少”？美股“大考”来了！

智通财经2022-07-11

自1月触及纪录高位以来，美股已蒸发逾万亿美元，目前仍陷于熊市。本周二季度美股财报季将拉开序幕，美股走势或将受到影响。一方面，企业越来越担心经济衰退的到来，鉴于较好的经济形势可能不会持续下去，许多企业已下调业绩指引。而另一方面，也有一些企业仍坚信美股的情况会出现改善，并在过去一个月上调了2022年的盈利预测。股票估值已经跌破历史平均水平，这可能会吸引逢低买入的投资者。但是，一些投资者和分析师警告称，...

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北纬1度线
·2022-07-12
[財迷] [財迷] [驚訝]
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1
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haiwei183
·2022-07-12
look
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2
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hhyw
·2022-07-12
好
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康康的
·2022-07-12
👌
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1
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愛我幸福满满
·2022-07-12
[微笑]
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BenWong78
·2022-07-12
👍
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Yeong
·2022-07-12
Y
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1
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Youn7276
·2022-07-12
Ok
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1
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zh2021
·2022-07-11
[微笑]
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1
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ironic
·2022-07-11
都
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股市赛亚人
·2022-07-11
這就是這個小便的水平也就是老虎的水平了
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- Youn7276:
  Ok
  2022-07-12
  Reply
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Yoshizawa
·2022-07-11
nice
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2
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赞我的今年账户翻十倍
·2022-07-11
wow
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1
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1%。Gap(GPS.US)也在公布一季度业绩时大幅下调2022财年全年指引;与上年相比，预计营收将出现中低单位数下降，而在非公认会计准则下的每股收益预计将在0.30-0.60美元之间，分析师普遍预期区间高端为1.30美元。思科将其全年收益预期从此前的每股3.41美元至3.46美元下调至3.29美元至3.37美元。分析师此前预计该公司全年每股收益为3.44美元。按最新的指引计算，全年营收增长将为2%至3%，低于此前5.5%至6.5%的预期。展望22财年的第四季度，思科预计营收将下降1%至5.5%，调整后每股收益为76美分至84美分。不过，也有一些投资者和企业仍坚信美股的情况会出现改善，在过去一个月上调了2022年的盈利预测。在标普500指数盈利预期二季度平均已上调的板块依次包括能源、工业、材料、房地产、IT、医疗保健。此前，全球最大的锂生产商美国雅宝第二次上调了其2022财年业绩指引。美国雅宝目前预计2022年全年的销售额为58亿-62亿美元，高于此前预期的52亿-56亿美元。其中，锂业务调整后EBITDA预计同比增长约300%，高于此前预期。梅西百货在公布一季度业绩时重申，预计2022年销售额为244.6亿至247亿美元，同比持平至增长1.0%。考虑到2022年第一季度的股票回购，以及信用卡收入预期的改善，公司将2022年调整后摊薄每股收益指引区间上调至4.53-4.95美元，此前的指引区间为4.13-4.52美元。但是，一些投资者和分析师警告称，即将到来的企业财报季，鉴于衰退风险不断加大，一些企业盈利预估看起来过于乐观。黯淡业绩前景令美股承压根据Evercore的数据，从历史上看，经济衰退期间的企业实际收入往往同比下降约15%。这意味着标普500指数的总每股收益可能会从今年预期的227美元降至2023年的192美元左右。如果保持标普500指数当前的预期盈利倍数不变，到今年年底该指数将降至3000点左右。众多投行对此次财报季对美股的走势影响都较为悲观。摩根士丹利表示，已经有迹象显示，未来几个月的盈利预期将被大幅下调。根据其对美股财报盈利的看法，标普500指数的合理点位在3400-3500点，比当前水平低约11%。该行表示：“除非盈利预期下调至更合理的水平，或估值反映出这种风险，否则熊市还没有结束。”Absolute Strategy Research对总管理着5.2万亿美元资产的投资者的预期进行了调查。该公司的数据显示，一年后全球企业盈利上升的可能性已降至37%，为2015年底以来的最低水平。该调查还发现，未来12个月股票投资回报率超过债券的可能性为53%，创下历史新低。巴伦周刊指出，二季度财报季的情况将在很大程度上影响第三和第四季度分析师在做预测时使用的模型，目前的普遍预期是二、三季度利润都会出现11%到13%的增长，但如果二季度财报表现不佳，或管理层下调未来业绩指引，这可能意味着分析师将下调未来两个季度的利润预期，而这将给今年迄今已经下跌了21%的股市带来更多压力。以Jamie Fahy为首的花旗策略师发表报告表示，尽管全球股市艰难度过了2022年上半年，但痛苦可能尚未结束。该行策略师在报告中写道，投资者已经被失控的通胀和旨在控制通胀的紧缩政策的潜在影响所困扰，而企业盈利预期被下调的前景将是投资者面临的最新阻力。该行补充道，具备弹性的企业盈利是今年为数不多支撑股市的因素之一，因此，考虑到较低的估值推动股市在近几周反弹，任何出现裂痕的迹象都会令投资者感到担忧。Simplify Partners顾问Francesco Cudrano表示：“企业盈利很少向下修正，人们仍然过于乐观。这就是为什么我们预计在公布业绩时将出现另一次修正，而且在这种波动下，真的有遭受打击的风险。”Cudrano表示，Simplify Partners一直在削减股票敞口，增加现金，预计股市将下跌15-20%。Cantor Fitzgerald股票衍生品和交叉资产主管Eric 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