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This Is Why U.S. Stocks Tumbled After Fed’s Powell Signaled Only One More Rate Hike in 2023

Dow Jones2023-03-23

Investors got the "dovish" rate hike that they had been hoping for on Wednesday.

But why did the Dow Jones Industrial Average fall more than 500 points after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hiked rates by 25 basis points and signaled that only one more hike would follow?

The answer, according to several market strategists, is because Powell, in his afternoon news conference, left investors with little certainty and plenty to worry about.

On the one hand, the Fed chair played up expectations for a worsening credit crunch that would essentially do the Fed's job for it by hurting the economy and labor market, while helping to combat inflation.

But while Powell assured reporters and the public that U.S. banks were well-capitalized and "sound," Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told a Senate committee that "blanket" deposit insurance hadn't been considered or discussed by her department, helping to drive stocks lower, market strategists said

That appeared to be a disappointment to investors after news reports said authorities were studying ways to expand insurance to all deposits if the banking worries spawned by the failure earlier this month of Silicon Valley Bank grow.

By the time markets closed, the S&P 500 financial services sector had fallen by 2.4%, making it the worst performer on the S&P 500 , which shed 65.90 points, or 1.7%, to 3,936.97. The Nasdaq Composite fell 190.15 points, or 1.6%, to 11,669.96, according to FactSet.

By comparison, stocks had rallied on Tuesday as investors bid up stocks in anticipation of Powell expressing a less-aggressive outlook for interest rates.

Unfortunately for stock investors, that's exactly what they got.

Expectations for a lower Fed terminal, or peak, rate should benefit stocks, at least in theory.

But when such expectations are informed by fears about a potentially serious economic downturn, which is what happened on Wednesday, the outlook can be more complicated, said Steve Sosnick, chief market strategist at Interactive Brokers, in a phone interview.

Although Powell ruled out rate cuts before the end of 2023, both Fed funds futures and Treasury yields appear to be pricing in as many as three rate cuts later this year, Sosnick said.

Hopes for rate cuts benefited stocks in the recent past. But now, "investors need to be careful what they wish for," Sosnick said.

"Most scenarios that get you to that level of interest rates are not stock-market friendly," he added.

The yield on the 2-year note BX:TMUBMUSD02Y fell by more than 20 basis points to 3.960% on Wednesday, according to FactSet.

Concerns that the Fed risked leaving its battle against inflation unfinished helped to compound the market's losses.

Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance, said in emailed comments that Fed officials are "potentially losing their nerve in fighting inflation" which could create more issues for markets and the economy down the road.

All things considered, Powell's news conference was decidedly market-negative, according to Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of Bleakley Financial Group, who said that Powell confronted markets with a "trifecta of trouble."

"Powell acknowledges the credit crunch ahead, says inflation and price stability are still a big focus and that they don't foresee cutting interest rates this year...no wonder why the stock market closed at the lows," he said in a note emailed to reporters.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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Comment9

  • BKT
    ·2023-03-23
    Pls like thanks 
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  • Longs
    ·2023-03-23
    👌🏼🙏🏼
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  • eslebe
    ·2023-03-23
    Stagflation... Here we come!
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  • 安安0715
    ·2023-03-23
    👍🏻
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  • Fishabeng
    ·2023-03-23
    [Smile] 
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  • neo26000
    ·2023-03-23
    This article may explain the drop. But it does not explain the rise today. I have not read any major news since announcement and now but market has decided to go down and then now  up. But I am sure they will later come and "justify" the recovery with some new explanation.  I will not bet on todays closing though. Only the big guys know... and the retailers have willingly sold their shares at a low  price. I am fastening my seat belt for the long run.
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    • Ed_G
      Ok
      2023-03-23
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    • Edwinchua75
      2023-03-23
      Reply
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    • 安安0715
      👍🏻👍🏻🙃
      2023-03-23
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  • Padres
    ·2023-03-23
    The more indexes go up from pumpers pushing for cuts, the steeper the fall will be to cleanse the speculators, small banks that didn't manage risk, commercial real estate, over valued VC funded startups and cry babies like Bill Ackman
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  • suthanb4u
    ·2023-03-23
    Hmm.. But then, despite this, indexes are itching to go up today..!?! So how? 
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  • Sanz13 8
    ·2023-03-23
    [Cry] [Cry] [Cool] [Grin] 
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