Time To Build A Position In Alibaba

Seeking Alpha2023-08-01

SummaryI believe now is a good time to build a position in Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.The price action, volume, momentum, and relative strength indicators suggest that Alibaba is in a basing phase and ...

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Keithgohhk
·2023-08-01
How about hong Kong alibaba shares, does it move in tandem?
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OO_898
·2023-08-01
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(NYSE:BABA). My investment thesis includes price action, volume, momentum, and relative strength. I will also identify a stop loss and potential price targets. Let’s dissect the chart below.Chart 1 – BABA weekly chart with 30-week EMA, Percentage Price Oscillator, Volume, & Relative Strengthwww.stockcharts.comWhen I analyze charts for potential trades, I start with looking at price action. I am looking at the structure of the market. Looking at Chart 1 above the second pane shows the weekly price action of BABA with its 30-week exponential moving average ('EMA') in blue. Anytime the price of the stock on a chart goes from the upper left-hand corner to the lower right-hand corner that stock is in a downtrend. It is not good to own a stock that is trending lower. You can see the stock stays below its falling 30-week EMA for all of 2021, and most of 2022. When I see this type of price action I look to see where the market structure changes from a declining stock to one that is basing or in an accumulation phase. The basing or accumulation phase of BABA’s market structure shows itself inside the green box. Three things indicate that BABA has changed from a declining stock to a stock that is basing. The first signal is the 30-week EMA starts to flatten out. You can see this change starting in December 2022. Before this time, the 30-week EMA was steadily declining. The second indication is that with the flat 30-weeek EMA, prices start to stay inside the range. In this case BABA trades anywhere from the upper $70s to about $105. BABA has been inside this price range from November 2022 to the present. What is happening inside this price range? That is the third indication. Institutions or smart money are showing signs of accumulating BABA. Looking at the third pane of Chart 1, you can see weekly volume with its 10-week EMA in blue. Inside the green box, volume starts to increase when the price of the stock goes higher for the week. Volume often pops above the 10-week EMA on bullish weeks. That type of volume pattern shows that smart money is likely accumulating BABA for their portfolios. I believe they would only do that because they think that BABA is undervalued at this price level, and they expect BABA to be higher in the future. They see BABA going from a stock that is basing to a stock that is moving higher in the future in my view.Momentum is another aspect that I consider when building an investment thesis. The top pane of Chart 1 shows the Percentage Price Oscillator ('PPO') which is a way to measure the momentum of stock movement. It is easy to understand. Momentum is bullish for a stock whenever the black line is above the red line. This shows that buyers are consistently moving the stock higher. Another indication of bullish price momentum is when the black line is above the zero line or the center line of the chart. This just occurred this week. The black line has a reading of 0.174 meaning it is above zero. PPO has both types of bullish momentum. It is important to understand that PPO is a confirmation indicator. PPO doesn’t lead prices higher. PPO just helps us understand good price momentum from bad. I want to own stocks that have bullish price momentum and BABA does.Relative strength is the last indicator I use for building an investment thesis. I want to own stocks that are outperforming the SP 500 index. Doing so allows you to potentially beat the SP 500 index. The fourth pane of Chart 1 shows the relative strength ratio of BABA to the SP 500 index. The black line shows the price ratio, and the blue line is the 30-week EMA of that ratio. Reading the indicator is simple. When the black line is declining that shows that BABA is underperforming the SP 500 index. When the black line is rising that shows that BABA is outperforming the SP 500 index. When I look at this indicator today, I see neither underperformance nor outperformance. Since mid-June, relative strength has been climbing which could continue. That is a positive to me.I think the price structure of BABA is bullish. BABA has now traded above its 30-week EMA for the last four weeks. Its 30-week EMA is starting to turn higher which is also bullish. BABA has bullish momentum and looks to be improving momentum wise. Relative strength has been flat for the year but has been showing signs of improvement since mid-June. I will buy shares this week.In terms of potential price targets, I see two. The first is $120 which is where price met resistance in March 2022, June 2022, and January 2023. The second potential price target is $180 where price was decisively rejected in October 2021.Whenever I place a trade, I always have a stop loss. This is a price that shows me my investment thesis was wrong. I see two ways to do this with BABA. Usually, any weekly close below the 30-week EMA would force me to close my position. However, this idea doesn’t work when buying a stock in a price range. As I mentioned earlier, BABA is in a price range here and can easily undercut its 30-week EMA. This wouldn’t mean it is ready to start another prolonged decline. In this case, I will reduce exposure to BABA if it declines more than 10% from my buy price. If BABA continues to rise from here, I will look to add more money to the position.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":204214882648312,"gmtCreate":1690865395835,"gmtModify":1690867879954,"author":{"id":"4087298217031100","authorId":"4087298217031100","name":"Keithgohhk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4087298217031100","authorIdStr":"4087298217031100"},"htmlText":"How about hong Kong alibaba shares, does it move in tandem?&nbsp;","listText":"How about hong Kong alibaba shares, does it move in tandem?&nbsp;","text":"How about hong Kong alibaba shares, does it move in tandem?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/204214882648312","repostId":2356956884,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":204205552480440,"gmtCreate":1690863115788,"gmtModify":1690863119812,"author":{"id":"3582969710070724","authorId":"3582969710070724","name":"OO_898","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fb3c360d5d7711641a868a144192fc7","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3582969710070724","authorIdStr":"3582969710070724"},"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/204205552480440","repostId":2356956884,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":34,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":2,"favoriteSize":3,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}