Tesla’s first-quarter delivery results are coming, and investors are nervous as Wall Street cuts estimates amid slowing demand growth for all-electric vehicles.
Tesla is due to report first-quarter delivery numbers on April 2.
Things might turn out better than expected.
The consensus call for the first quarter aggregated by FactSet is 457,000 units, up from 423,000 units delivered in the first quarter of 2023. No one expects 457,000 units, though. Analysts don’t update numbers at the same rate.
The most recent estimates coming from the Street are in the 425,000 range. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives says anything above 420,000 would be a relief, and investors are bracing for a number that could come in below 410,000 units.
It probably isn’t going to be that bad. On Friday afternoon, Tesla tweeted to say it produced its six millionth vehicle.
Given all the past production and sales numbers Tesla releases each quarter, the EV giant likely produced about 440,00 units in the first quarter, through March 29. Accounting for potential production on Mar. 30 and Mar. 31, Tesla might have produced 450,000 units in the first quarter.
Production, of course, isn’t sales. And there is typically a gap between production and sales figures. Lately, the gap has averaged about 15,000 units a quarter.
A reasonable, and conservative, first-quarter estimate, based on the tweet, is somewhere between 425,000 and 435,000 units.
That is only a guess. Inventories could have grown in the quarter—or fallen. Still, the tweet offers investors another way to think about the quarterly number due on April 2.
Something around 430,000 units should be good enough to boost the stock. Tesla shares had a lousy first quarter, falling almost 30%, making it the worst performer in the S&P 500.
The 430,000 figure would also mean year-over-year growth. Tesla hasn’t posted lower unit sales from the year prior since the second quarter of 2020. That was because of the pandemic.
Excluding that quarter, Tesla’s quarterly unit sales have never fallen year over year.