Nvidia: Profit Explosion And Stock Split Are Game-Changers

Seeking Alpha05-25

Nvidia's stock surged 9% after strong Q1 earnings, driven by record revenues and profits in its Data Center business.The company announced a ten-for-one stock split to make shares more affordable for ...

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MireyaMiya万亿丰
·05-25
Nvidia keep going👍 !
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TeslaBoy
·05-25
At current valuation, Nvidia is at optimum risk! Competitors will catch up really soon.
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8
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MIe
·05-25
Nvidia more upside after split
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Nvidia is likely to see significant EPS estimate upside revisions going forward.Shares trade at 30X earnings which seems much less expensive after the company's net income rose 628% Y/Y.Nvidia's significant free cash flow/earnings upswing, a strong margin profile, a stock split and an enviable market position in Data Center GPUs are reasons why I am changing my rating to buy.BING-JHEN HONGShares of Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) surged 9% after the chipmaker submitted its earnings sheet for its first fiscal quarter of FY 2025 on Wednesday. The company is seeing strong chip adoption in its Data Center business, which led to record segment revenues, record total revenues and an explosion in profits for Nvidia. Data Center-related revenues now represent 87% of consolidated revenues, and the company issued a strong outlook for the coming quarter as well. Given the massive increase in the company’s valuation in the last year, Nvidia now also announced a ten-for-one stock split to make shares more affordable for investors. I believe the value proposition has improved greatly, and I am up-grading shares of Nvidia to buy!Data by YChartsPrevious ratingNvidia is, and has been for a while, my biggest regret in the investment realm. I rated Nvidia a strong sell for much of 2023 due to valuation concerns, but slowly came around in the last quarter due to Nvidia’s strong margin picture and Data Center growth: Lessons Learned From My Worst Call Ever. I am now up-grading shares of the chipmaker to buy due to the company’s profit explosion, driven by its Data Center business, which could also lead to a number of EPS estimate upside revisions in the near term. The ten-for-one stock split could also attract more buyers to Nvidia as shares become more affordable for investors.Nvidia leaves estimates in the dustNvidia delivered a solid earnings and top line beat for its latest quarter: the chipmaker achieved adjusted earnings of $6.12 per-share on revenues of 26.04B. Earnings beat the consensus by $0.54 per-share, due to Nvidia benefiting enormously from growing product adoption of its AI GPUs in the Data Center segment. Revenues also came in higher than expected, and together with a solid forecast for FQ2’25, explain why shares reached a new all-time high on Thursday.Seeking AlphaData Centers are now dominating Nvidia’s revenue mixNvidia’s total revenues hit $26.0B in FQ1’25, showing a massive 18% quarter over quarter and 262% year over year growth. This expansion in the top line has been chiefly driven by strong execution in the Data Center segment, which reached all-time record revenues of $22.6B last quarter, showing 427% year over year growth. Key to Nvidia’s growth is strong product adoption of its AI GPUs, which are specifically designed to support Data Center operations. One key driver of growth going forward could be close relationships with other U.S. companies that are investing heavily into their own AI capabilities, in part to train their own large language models.Nvidia is deepening relationships with Microsoft, Oracle, Amazon Web Services and Google, which are investing billions of dollars into their own artificial intelligence products. Nvidia’s core AI GPU, the H100 tensor core GPU, is flying out the door at the moment and the company’s launch of the next-gen H200 GPU, a top-of-the-line chip to support AI applications, could extend Nvidia’s current momentum way into the second half of the year.Nvidia's AI GPUs have been so successful that Data Centers are now completely dominating Nvidia's revenue mix. The Data Center segment was responsible for 87% of the company's consolidated revenues, which compares to a revenue share of 60% last year. The revenue base more than quintupled year over year due to sky-high demand for new AI processors that can be used to train large language models.NvidiaNvidia's revenue upswing has a number of catalysts including the launch of the next-gen H200 (FQ2'25), reinvestment of Nvidia's surging free cash flow into new products such as Nvidia's Blackwell platform to support AI applications, and, possibly, at some point the return of this free cash flow via stock buybacks to shareholders. In FQ1'25, Nvidia generated nearly $15B in free cash flow, of which approximately 52% was returned to shareholders via stock buybacks (a total of $7.74B).Data by YChartsStrong outlook for FQ2'25Nvidia is guiding for $28.0B in revenues in FQ2’25 (+/- 2%) which implies 7.5% quarter over quarter growth while at the same time the chipmaker is looking at a non-GAAP gross margin of 74.8%, +/- 50 basis points. The margin picture continues to look very solid, with Nvidia reporting a Q/Q increase in its GAAP gross margin of 2.4 PP last quarter. The expansion in the gross margin and healthy uptrend is another reason why I am changing my rating for Nvidia from hold to buy.Data by YChartsNvidia’s valuation, EPS upside revisionsNvidia is not cheap and hasn’t been for a while. In fact, focusing too much on valuation caused me to miss out on Nvidia’s share price rally, which I regret dearly. However, with Nvidia seeing a significant profit explosion in FQ1'25, driven by Data Centers, Nvidia’s shares may not be as expensive as I once thought. Given Nvidia's strong performance in FQ1'25, investors can reasonably expect an avalanche of EPS estimate upside revisions for Nvidia's coming second fiscal quarter.Nvidia is currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.8X, which is not as excessive as I used to think. The reason: Nvidia’s net income soared 628% in the last quarter to $14.9B… which means that Nvidia is now more profitable than Amazon or Meta Platforms (META). Nvidia is more expensive than AMD (AMD), which is trading at a P/E ratio of 28.9X, but not by a lot and Nvidia still has a comparatively strong competitive position in the Data Center AI GPU market due to the early launch of the H100 Data Center chip.At the end of FY 2023, Nvidia dominated the Data Center GPU market with a 92% market share, but this strong position may erode over time as AMD and Intel (INTC) roll out at scale their own artificial intelligence products. Still, Nvidia is currently in a very enviable position, as it can charge its customers a ton of money for its flagship AI GPUs.IoT AnalyticsNvidia's H100 is still very expensive with a price tag of around $40,000. It is also up to four times more expensive than AMD's MI300X Data Center GPU, meaning Nvidia may at some point see deteriorating pricing power for its top-of-the-line AI GPU, especially if more customers choose the lower-price AMD GPU over Nvidia's solution. AMD, in my opinion, has a reasonable chance to see stronger EPS growth going forward because it is finally in the market with a competitive AI GPU offer. AMD has trailed Nvidia in the last two years in terms of Data Center GPUs, but with the availability of AMD's MI300X GPU, for which there seems to be record demand, I believe the situation could be slowly improving for AMD. One reason for this is that the MI300X GPU is much more affordable than Nvidia's H100 chip which could, in the longer term, help AMD achieve market share gains and post stronger EPS growth than Nvidia.AMD, as an example, is expected to see strong sales for its MI300X and the market even expects AMD to exceed Nvidia's EPS growth. Nvidia, given its massive increase in profitability and continual momentum in Data Center revenues, has further revaluation potential, in my opinion. With Nvidia experiencing a big jump in profitability and free cash flow looking extremely strong, I believe shares could trade at 35X earnings... which implies ~20% upside revaluation potential and a potential fair value in the region of $1,220.The 35X earnings multiple is chiefly supported by Nvidia's drastically improved profitability picture and very high gross margins, and is based off of a consensus EPS forecast of $34.81 for FY 2025. The EPS estimate also implies only about 29% year over year growth and with earnings projections likely to get revised to the upside in the coming weeks, I believe my $1,220 price target may actually be conservative.EPS estimates for the upcoming quarter have already revised 36 times to the upside in the last 90 days, as analysts see Nvidia's earnings momentum to continue in the short term. My price target is a dynamic number and may be revised upward based off of the significance of EPS revisions as well as Nvidia's margin improvements going forward.Data by YChartsRisks with NvidiaThe biggest risk for Nvidia, as I see it, is a potential deceleration of growth in the Data Center segment, to which investors are likely not going to react kindly. Other chipmakers are also starting to pump out their own AI products, which could indicate weakening pricing power for Nvidia's blockbuster AI GPU. Intel just announced the launch of Gaudi 3, an AI accelerator targeting the lucrative enterprise market, while AMD rolled out its MI300 Instinct chips to mount a frontal assault on the dominant market position of Nvidia’s H100 chip. If Intel and AMD were to see market share gains in the AI GPU market, then shares of Nvidia’s valuation factor may suffer headwinds.Final thoughtsNvidia continued to excel in the first fiscal quarter of FY 2025 and the stock split especially is a smart move for the company to make its shares more affordable for investors. The ten-for-one stock split is a cosmetic maneuver, of course, but it could prove successful nonetheless: a lower share price could make Nvidia more attractive to investors that have been put off by Nvidia’s $1,000 price tag. The revenue and margin outlook for FQ2’25 is also positive and with the H200 AI GPU set to provide further fuel in the Data Center business in the second-quarter, I believe Nvidia makes a much better value proposition!","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[{"id":309716511395880,"gmtCreate":1716618973759,"gmtModify":1716618978570,"author":{"id":"3580082297864003","authorId":"3580082297864003","name":"MireyaMiya万亿丰","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1124aa19e932df4e4bb55e398ab6f78a","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3580082297864003","authorIdStr":"3580082297864003"},"htmlText":"Nvidia keep going👍 !","listText":"Nvidia keep going👍 !","text":"Nvidia keep going👍 !","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/309716511395880","repostId":2438065998,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":309716079456376,"gmtCreate":1716618868535,"gmtModify":1716619241512,"author":{"id":"4088928099406900","authorId":"4088928099406900","name":"TeslaBoy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4088928099406900","authorIdStr":"4088928099406900"},"htmlText":"At current valuation, Nvidia is at optimum risk! Competitors will catch up really soon.&nbsp;","listText":"At current valuation, Nvidia is at optimum risk! Competitors will catch up really soon.&nbsp;","text":"At current valuation, Nvidia is at optimum risk! Competitors will catch up really soon.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/309716079456376","repostId":2438065998,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":309524208558264,"gmtCreate":1716597002229,"gmtModify":1716597006794,"author":{"id":"3577182936341023","authorId":"3577182936341023","name":"MIe","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f84d87792f02cf78e80ee34979fd31e5","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577182936341023","authorIdStr":"3577182936341023"},"htmlText":"Nvidia more upside after split&nbsp;","listText":"Nvidia more upside after split&nbsp;","text":"Nvidia more upside after split","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/309524208558264","repostId":2438065998,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":25,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":3,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}