Interest Rates Will Be Higher in the Future, Especially if Trump Is President
The Federal Reserve three weeks ago slashed its short-term rate target by half a point and signaled more cuts to come. Yet in that time, investors have pushed the yield on the 10-year Treasury to 4%, the highest in two months.Why would long rates rise while the Fed's rates fall?The Fed sets interest rates for the immediate future. Investors are betting on the path of those rates for the next decade. And for two reasons, interest rates are likely to be higher, perhaps much higher, in the coming decade than in the prior one.More than a year ago the Fed pushed its rate target range to a 20-year high of 5.25% to 5.5% to make sure inflation didn't stay stuck above its 2% target, even if that meant causing a recession. By September, inflation was closing in on 2%. The half-point cut signaled that the Fed's priority was now protecting the labor market.