Tesla Q2 Preview: All The Negative News Does Not Affect My Bullish View

Seeking Alpha07-21

I upgraded Tesla, Inc. stock to “Strong Buy” in May 2024, and the stock price has surged by over 32% since then.Challenges include declining production/deliveries and delay of the Robotaxi event.Given...

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Guavaxf30
·07-21
Ark has the same bullish view. Even as they Were reducing their holdings of Tesla. The stock market is full of manipulators. But if you are a short term trader, Tesla is one counter which can easily be swayed. By eithe Katie Woods or Elon Musk himself.
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- Guavaxf30:
  Oh, yes. I am almost certain Elon and Tesla will make some fantastic announcement just before results announcement on Tesday.
  07-21
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AlanChanyh
·07-21
How much did Tesla pay you to write this article? Haha. Retail investor see this article and buy the stock and the big whales sell it to the investor beforethe next crash happens ???
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CaseyLKC
·07-21
Great, all depends on the strong fundamentals
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href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4705197-tesla-q2-preview-all-the-negative-news-does-not-affect-my-bullish-view><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>I upgraded Tesla, Inc. stock to “Strong Buy” in May 2024, and the stock price has surged by over 32% since then.Challenges include declining production/deliveries and delay of the Robotaxi event.Given...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4705197-tesla-q2-preview-all-the-negative-news-does-not-affect-my-bullish-view\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0056508442.USD","symbol_name":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4705197-tesla-q2-preview-all-the-negative-news-does-not-affect-my-bullish-view","article_id":"2452861582","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2452861582","pubTimestamp":1721532600,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"I upgraded Tesla, Inc. stock to “Strong Buy” in May 2024, and the stock price has surged by over 32% since then.Challenges include declining production/deliveries and delay of the Robotaxi event.Given","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) 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(HKD) ACC","BK4017":"黄金","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD"},"translate_title":"特斯拉Q2前瞻：所有负面消息都不影响我的看涨观点","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLL":1,"TSLA":1},"content_text":"I upgraded Tesla, Inc. stock to “Strong Buy” in May 2024, and the stock price has surged by over 32% since then.Challenges include declining production/deliveries and delay of the Robotaxi event.Given confidence in Tesla's FSD technology, I am reiterating “Strong Buy” with a one-year target price of $295 per share.Monty RakusenI upgraded Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) to “Strong Buy” in my previous coverage published in May 2024, highlighting its growth opportunities in the full self-driving (FSD). Since then, the stock price has surged by more than 32%. The company is set to report its Q2 results on July 23rd after the market close. Although Tesla is facing challenges such as declining production/deliveries and a delay of the Robotaxi event, I remain confident in Tesla’s FSD technology, and reiterate a “Strong Buy” with a one-year target price of $295 per share.Declining Production/DeliveryTesla released its Q2 production/delivery figures on July 2nd, showing a 1.7% decline in electric vehicle (“EV”) production and an 8.5% decline in delivery, as depicted in the chart below.Tesla Quarterly EarningsI think the decline in both production and delivery is quite reasonable and understandable. The reasons are:Cox Automotive reported that EV sales in the U.S. grew by 11.3% year-over-year, reaching a record volume of 330,463 units. While Tesla remains the leading player, its market share has dropped below 50% for the first time due to the growth of other brands such as BMW, Cadillac, Honda, and Kia etc., as detailed in the table below. Tesla’s weak growth in Q2 could be caused by the introduction of new models from other brands, including BMW i5, Cadillac Lyriq and Kia EV9 SUV.Cox AutomotiveAs reported by the media, Tesla halted its production in German plant for five days in June to improve processes in the factory. The temporary shutdown may have impacted the total product and delivery growth in Q2. However, I view this event as one-time in nature.Overall, I remain confident with Tesla’s leading technology, both in EVs and autonomous driving, as emphasized in my previous coverage. It is understandable that other brands are beginning to launch more and more EV models to catch market share. However, the whole EV market is enormous, with penetration growth just beginning. According to Kelley Blue Book, EV sales accounted for only around 8% of total new-vehicle sales in Q2.Delay of RobotaxiElon Musk confirmed that the upcoming Robotaxi event, originally scheduled on August 8th, has been delayed, with no new date announced yet. It appears that Tesla is still making some last-minute changes to its Robotaxi architecture. The delay might give Tesla’s R&D team additional time to unveil a more advanced Robotaxi vehicle.I don’t view the delay of Robotaxi as a material issue for the company. Instead, I am more interested in the progress that Tesla has made in its AI training. As discussed in my previous coverage, one of Tesla’s main competitive advantages is its vast real-world driving data, which can be leveraged for AI training. With AI-powered autonomous driving, Tesla has the potential to disrupt the entire autonomous driving market.As reported by the media, Tesla is nearing completion of a new 50k H100 chip data center extension near its Giga Texas. In addition, Tesla is adding 20k of its HW 4.0 AI computers into the data center. The massive AI computing power could potentially accelerate advancement in its FSD.China GrowthChina is a critical region for Tesla, accounting for more than 20% of total revenue. BYD Company (OTCPK:BYDDF) posted a strong volume growth in June 2024, as shown in the chart below. BYD’s EV volume increased by 35.2% year-over-year in June, indicating a robust recovery in the domestic EV market.BYD Investor RelationsGizmoChina reported that Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory is currently operating at full capacity, with the Model Y production line producing a new car every 30 seconds. I anticipate that China will continue to be a strong growth market for Tesla. More importantly, as discussed in my previous coverage, Tesla’s FSD could potentially start to commercialize in China soon.Valuation UpdateAs pointed out in my previous coverages, I don’t view Tesla solely as an automaker. Instead, FSD significantly enhances the company’s valuation.I view FY24 as a transitional year for Tesla, facing several challenges, including a factory shutdown, price cut, new EV models launched by competitors, and delays in its Robotaxi event etc. Based on the current production and delivery data, I forecast a 3% decline in revenue for FY24.For long-term growth rate, my calculation is straightforward. As discussed earlier, EV sales accounts for only 8% of total new-vehicles sales. I project that the EV market will grow at a CAGR of 19.8% over the next 10 years, assuming:The EV penetration will rise to 40% within the next decade.The total passenger vehicle market will grow by 2% annually, primarily driven by population growth.In addition, I forecast FSD could potentially contribute an extra 5% to the topline growth. Consequently, I forecast Tesla will deliver a 25% growth in revenue in the near future.The margin expansion will be driven by the operating leverage from business scales, primarily via gross profit leverage. In the DCF model, I assume the average selling price for EVs to decline over time, as more brands will participate in the market. I forecast Tesla can expand its margin by 90bps annually assuming the total operating expenses will grow by 23.7% year-over-year.The discounted cash flow (\"DCF\") summary can be found in the chart below:Tesla DCF - Author's CalculationsI calculate the free cash flow from equity as follows:Tesla DCF - Author's CalculationsThe cost of equity is estimated to be 17% assuming: risk-free rate 4.2% (US 10Y Treasury Yield); beta 1.83 (SA); equity risk premium 7%. Discounting all the free cash flow, the one-year price target is calculated to be $295 per share, as per my estimate.Key RisksMy valuation of Tesla relies on the success of its FSD technology. Without FSD, Tesla’s fair value would be at least $100 lower than my target price, as per my simulations. Tesla’s FSD technology has experienced several delays in the past. Of course, CEO Elon Musk has broken his promises numerous times as well.Additionally, former President Trump has expressed intentions to end the Inflation Reduction Act and redirect EV credits to gasoline vehicles. If this were to happen, the entire EV market could face significant challenges.End NotesIt looks like all the negative news has impacted Tesla in FY24, raising many questions and concerns about the company’s long-term prospectus. I remain confident that Tesla is the leading player in both EVs and autonomous driving. Its AI-based FSD technology has the potential to disrupt the entire industry. I continue to be a long-term shareholder of Tesla and reiterate a “Strong Buy” with a one-year target price of $295 per share.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[{"id":329945652908064,"gmtCreate":1721558922248,"gmtModify":1721638389688,"author":{"id":"3576140222331577","authorId":"3576140222331577","authorIdStr":"3576140222331577","name":"Guavaxf30","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ff15ff6aa254c9130f9af922f7e2447","vip":1,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3576140222331577"},"htmlText":"Ark has the same bullish view. Even as they Were reducing their holdings of Tesla.&nbsp; The stock market is full of manipulators.&nbsp; But if you are a short term trader, Tesla is one counter which can easily be swayed. By eithe Katie Woods or Elon Musk himself.","listText":"Ark has the same bullish view. Even as they Were reducing their holdings of Tesla.&nbsp; The stock market is full of manipulators.&nbsp; But if you are a short term trader, Tesla is one counter which can easily be swayed. By eithe Katie Woods or Elon Musk himself.","text":"Ark has the same bullish view. Even as they Were reducing their holdings of Tesla. The stock market is full of manipulators. But if you are a short term trader, Tesla is one counter which can easily be swayed. By eithe Katie Woods or Elon Musk himself.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/329945652908064","repostId":2452861582,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2452861582","pubTimestamp":1721532600,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2452861582?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-07-21 11:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Q2 Preview: All The Negative News Does Not Affect My Bullish View","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2452861582","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"I upgraded Tesla, Inc. stock to “Strong Buy” in May 2024, and the stock price has surged by over 32% since then.Challenges include declining production/deliveries and delay of the Robotaxi event.Given","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>I upgraded Tesla, Inc. stock to “Strong Buy” in May 2024, and the stock price has surged by over 32% since then.</p></li><li><p>Challenges include declining production/deliveries and delay of the Robotaxi event.</p></li><li><p>Given confidence in Tesla&#39;s FSD technology, I am reiterating “Strong Buy” with a one-year target price of $295 per share.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b1cf0e0e0841430248c254baaf7e6d2\" alt=\"Monty Rakusen\" title=\"Monty Rakusen\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>Monty Rakusen</span></p><p>I upgraded <strong>Tesla, Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ:TSLA) to “Strong Buy” in my previous coverage published in May 2024, highlighting its growth opportunities in the full self-driving (FSD). Since then, the stock price has surged by more than 32%. The company is set to report its Q2 results on July 23rd after the market close. Although Tesla is facing challenges such as declining production/deliveries and a delay of the Robotaxi event, I remain confident in Tesla’s FSD technology, and reiterate a “Strong Buy” with a one-year target price of $295 per share.</p><h2 id=\"id_494102153\">Declining Production/Delivery</h2><p>Tesla released its Q2 production/delivery figures on July 2nd, showing a 1.7% decline in electric vehicle (“EV”) production and an 8.5% decline in delivery, as depicted in the chart below.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d0b7c1bc76a5ba79d2ec84b2d08fdaee\" alt=\"Tesla Quarterly Earnings\" title=\"Tesla Quarterly Earnings\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\"/><span>Tesla Quarterly Earnings</span></p><p>I think the decline in both production and delivery is quite reasonable and understandable. The reasons are:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Cox Automotive reported that EV sales in the U.S. grew by 11.3% year-over-year, reaching a record volume of 330,463 units. While Tesla remains the leading player, its market share has dropped below 50% for the first time due to the growth of other brands such as BMW, Cadillac, Honda, and Kia etc., as detailed in the table below. Tesla’s weak growth in Q2 could be caused by the introduction of new models from other brands, including BMW i5, Cadillac Lyriq and Kia EV9 SUV.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c847f6c18966b36bdc9c69a830eff7e7\" alt=\"Cox Automotive\" title=\"Cox Automotive\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"506\"/><span>Cox Automotive</span></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>As reported by the media, Tesla halted its production in German plant for five days in June to improve processes in the factory. The temporary shutdown may have impacted the total product and delivery growth in Q2. However, I view this event as one-time in nature.</p></li></ul><p>Overall, I remain confident with Tesla’s leading technology, both in EVs and autonomous driving, as emphasized in my previous coverage. It is understandable that other brands are beginning to launch more and more EV models to catch market share. However, the whole EV market is enormous, with penetration growth just beginning. According to Kelley Blue Book, EV sales accounted for only around 8% of total new-vehicle sales in Q2.</p><h2 id=\"id_1584496488\">Delay of Robotaxi</h2><p>Elon Musk confirmed that the upcoming Robotaxi event, originally scheduled on August 8th, has been delayed, with no new date announced yet. It appears that Tesla is still making some last-minute changes to its Robotaxi architecture. The delay might give Tesla’s R&amp;D team additional time to unveil a more advanced Robotaxi vehicle.</p><p>I don’t view the delay of Robotaxi as a material issue for the company. Instead, I am more interested in the progress that Tesla has made in its AI training. As discussed in my previous coverage, one of Tesla’s main competitive advantages is its vast real-world driving data, which can be leveraged for AI training. With AI-powered autonomous driving, Tesla has the potential to disrupt the entire autonomous driving market.</p><p>As reported by the media, Tesla is nearing completion of a new 50k H100 chip data center extension near its Giga Texas. In addition, Tesla is adding 20k of its HW 4.0 AI computers into the data center. The massive AI computing power could potentially accelerate advancement in its FSD.</p><h2 id=\"id_1242281489\">China Growth</h2><p>China is a critical region for Tesla, accounting for more than 20% of total revenue. BYD Company (OTCPK:BYDDF) posted a strong volume growth in June 2024, as shown in the chart below. BYD’s EV volume increased by 35.2% year-over-year in June, indicating a robust recovery in the domestic EV market.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dabf91dbe503bf270a9d1869df54a873\" alt=\"BYD Investor Relations\" title=\"BYD Investor Relations\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"244\"/><span>BYD Investor Relations</span></p><p>GizmoChina reported that Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory is currently operating at full capacity, with the Model Y production line producing a new car every 30 seconds. I anticipate that China will continue to be a strong growth market for Tesla. More importantly, as discussed in my previous coverage, Tesla’s FSD could potentially start to commercialize in China soon.</p><h2 id=\"id_1191694502\">Valuation Update</h2><p>As pointed out in my previous coverages, I don’t view Tesla solely as an automaker. Instead, FSD significantly enhances the company’s valuation.</p><p>I view FY24 as a transitional year for Tesla, facing several challenges, including a factory shutdown, price cut, new EV models launched by competitors, and delays in its Robotaxi event etc. Based on the current production and delivery data, I forecast a 3% decline in revenue for FY24.</p><p>For long-term growth rate, my calculation is straightforward. As discussed earlier, EV sales accounts for only 8% of total new-vehicles sales. I project that the EV market will grow at a CAGR of 19.8% over the next 10 years, assuming:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>The EV penetration will rise to 40% within the next decade.</p></li><li><p>The total passenger vehicle market will grow by 2% annually, primarily driven by population growth.</p></li></ul><p>In addition, I forecast FSD could potentially contribute an extra 5% to the topline growth. Consequently, I forecast Tesla will deliver a 25% growth in revenue in the near future.</p><p>The margin expansion will be driven by the operating leverage from business scales, primarily via gross profit leverage. In the DCF model, I assume the average selling price for EVs to decline over time, as more brands will participate in the market. I forecast Tesla can expand its margin by 90bps annually assuming the total operating expenses will grow by 23.7% year-over-year.</p><p>The discounted cash flow (&#34;DCF&#34;) summary can be found in the chart below:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7d24e0aa1f9c23c75bcf764662f954f4\" alt=\"Tesla DCF - Author&#39;s Calculations\" title=\"Tesla DCF - Author&#39;s Calculations\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\"/><span>Tesla DCF - Author&#39;s Calculations</span></p><p>I calculate the free cash flow from equity as follows:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cc46e0a24ffd698c507fada6b7e5dd60\" alt=\"Tesla DCF - Author&#39;s Calculations\" title=\"Tesla DCF - Author&#39;s Calculations\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"102\"/><span>Tesla DCF - Author&#39;s Calculations</span></p><p>The cost of equity is estimated to be 17% assuming: risk-free rate 4.2% (US 10Y Treasury Yield); beta 1.83 (SA); equity risk premium 7%. Discounting all the free cash flow, the one-year price target is calculated to be $295 per share, as per my estimate.</p><h2 id=\"id_3208630115\">Key Risks</h2><p>My valuation of Tesla relies on the success of its FSD technology. Without FSD, Tesla’s fair value would be at least $100 lower than my target price, as per my simulations. Tesla’s FSD technology has experienced several delays in the past. Of course, CEO Elon Musk has broken his promises numerous times as well.</p><p>Additionally, former President Trump has expressed intentions to end the Inflation Reduction Act and redirect EV credits to gasoline vehicles. If this were to happen, the entire EV market could face significant challenges.</p><h2 id=\"id_2158746352\">End Notes</h2><p>It looks like all the negative news has impacted Tesla in FY24, raising many questions and concerns about the company’s long-term prospectus. I remain confident that Tesla is the leading player in both EVs and autonomous driving. Its AI-based FSD technology has the potential to disrupt the entire industry. I continue to be a long-term shareholder of Tesla and reiterate a “Strong Buy” with a one-year target price of $295 per share.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Q2 Preview: All The Negative News Does Not Affect My Bullish View</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Q2 Preview: All The Negative News Does Not Affect My Bullish View\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-07-21 11:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4705197-tesla-q2-preview-all-the-negative-news-does-not-affect-my-bullish-view><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>I upgraded Tesla, Inc. stock to “Strong Buy” in May 2024, and the stock price has surged by over 32% since then.Challenges include declining production/deliveries and delay of the Robotaxi event.Given...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4705197-tesla-q2-preview-all-the-negative-news-does-not-affect-my-bullish-view\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4555":"新能源车","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","LU0820562030.AUD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMH2\" (AUDHDG) H2 INC","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","SG9999015945.SGD":"LionGlobal Disruptive Innovation Fund A SGD","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU2602419157.SGD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"AC\" (SGD) ACC","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","SG9999015978.USD":"利安颠覆性创新基金A","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","BK4099":"汽车制造商","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","LU2756315318.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (SGDHDG) INC A","TSLL":"Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares","SG9999015986.USD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","BK4017":"黄金","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4705197-tesla-q2-preview-all-the-negative-news-does-not-affect-my-bullish-view","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2452861582","content_text":"I upgraded Tesla, Inc. stock to “Strong Buy” in May 2024, and the stock price has surged by over 32% since then.Challenges include declining production/deliveries and delay of the Robotaxi event.Given confidence in Tesla's FSD technology, I am reiterating “Strong Buy” with a one-year target price of $295 per share.Monty RakusenI upgraded Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) to “Strong Buy” in my previous coverage published in May 2024, highlighting its growth opportunities in the full self-driving (FSD). Since then, the stock price has surged by more than 32%. The company is set to report its Q2 results on July 23rd after the market close. Although Tesla is facing challenges such as declining production/deliveries and a delay of the Robotaxi event, I remain confident in Tesla’s FSD technology, and reiterate a “Strong Buy” with a one-year target price of $295 per share.Declining Production/DeliveryTesla released its Q2 production/delivery figures on July 2nd, showing a 1.7% decline in electric vehicle (“EV”) production and an 8.5% decline in delivery, as depicted in the chart below.Tesla Quarterly EarningsI think the decline in both production and delivery is quite reasonable and understandable. The reasons are:Cox Automotive reported that EV sales in the U.S. grew by 11.3% year-over-year, reaching a record volume of 330,463 units. While Tesla remains the leading player, its market share has dropped below 50% for the first time due to the growth of other brands such as BMW, Cadillac, Honda, and Kia etc., as detailed in the table below. Tesla’s weak growth in Q2 could be caused by the introduction of new models from other brands, including BMW i5, Cadillac Lyriq and Kia EV9 SUV.Cox AutomotiveAs reported by the media, Tesla halted its production in German plant for five days in June to improve processes in the factory. The temporary shutdown may have impacted the total product and delivery growth in Q2. However, I view this event as one-time in nature.Overall, I remain confident with Tesla’s leading technology, both in EVs and autonomous driving, as emphasized in my previous coverage. It is understandable that other brands are beginning to launch more and more EV models to catch market share. However, the whole EV market is enormous, with penetration growth just beginning. According to Kelley Blue Book, EV sales accounted for only around 8% of total new-vehicle sales in Q2.Delay of RobotaxiElon Musk confirmed that the upcoming Robotaxi event, originally scheduled on August 8th, has been delayed, with no new date announced yet. It appears that Tesla is still making some last-minute changes to its Robotaxi architecture. The delay might give Tesla’s R&D team additional time to unveil a more advanced Robotaxi vehicle.I don’t view the delay of Robotaxi as a material issue for the company. Instead, I am more interested in the progress that Tesla has made in its AI training. As discussed in my previous coverage, one of Tesla’s main competitive advantages is its vast real-world driving data, which can be leveraged for AI training. With AI-powered autonomous driving, Tesla has the potential to disrupt the entire autonomous driving market.As reported by the media, Tesla is nearing completion of a new 50k H100 chip data center extension near its Giga Texas. In addition, Tesla is adding 20k of its HW 4.0 AI computers into the data center. The massive AI computing power could potentially accelerate advancement in its FSD.China GrowthChina is a critical region for Tesla, accounting for more than 20% of total revenue. BYD Company (OTCPK:BYDDF) posted a strong volume growth in June 2024, as shown in the chart below. BYD’s EV volume increased by 35.2% year-over-year in June, indicating a robust recovery in the domestic EV market.BYD Investor RelationsGizmoChina reported that Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory is currently operating at full capacity, with the Model Y production line producing a new car every 30 seconds. I anticipate that China will continue to be a strong growth market for Tesla. More importantly, as discussed in my previous coverage, Tesla’s FSD could potentially start to commercialize in China soon.Valuation UpdateAs pointed out in my previous coverages, I don’t view Tesla solely as an automaker. Instead, FSD significantly enhances the company’s valuation.I view FY24 as a transitional year for Tesla, facing several challenges, including a factory shutdown, price cut, new EV models launched by competitors, and delays in its Robotaxi event etc. Based on the current production and delivery data, I forecast a 3% decline in revenue for FY24.For long-term growth rate, my calculation is straightforward. As discussed earlier, EV sales accounts for only 8% of total new-vehicles sales. I project that the EV market will grow at a CAGR of 19.8% over the next 10 years, assuming:The EV penetration will rise to 40% within the next decade.The total passenger vehicle market will grow by 2% annually, primarily driven by population growth.In addition, I forecast FSD could potentially contribute an extra 5% to the topline growth. Consequently, I forecast Tesla will deliver a 25% growth in revenue in the near future.The margin expansion will be driven by the operating leverage from business scales, primarily via gross profit leverage. In the DCF model, I assume the average selling price for EVs to decline over time, as more brands will participate in the market. I forecast Tesla can expand its margin by 90bps annually assuming the total operating expenses will grow by 23.7% year-over-year.The discounted cash flow (\"DCF\") summary can be found in the chart below:Tesla DCF - Author's CalculationsI calculate the free cash flow from equity as follows:Tesla DCF - Author's CalculationsThe cost of equity is estimated to be 17% assuming: risk-free rate 4.2% (US 10Y Treasury Yield); beta 1.83 (SA); equity risk premium 7%. Discounting all the free cash flow, the one-year price target is calculated to be $295 per share, as per my estimate.Key RisksMy valuation of Tesla relies on the success of its FSD technology. Without FSD, Tesla’s fair value would be at least $100 lower than my target price, as per my simulations. Tesla’s FSD technology has experienced several delays in the past. Of course, CEO Elon Musk has broken his promises numerous times as well.Additionally, former President Trump has expressed intentions to end the Inflation Reduction Act and redirect EV credits to gasoline vehicles. If this were to happen, the entire EV market could face significant challenges.End NotesIt looks like all the negative news has impacted Tesla in FY24, raising many questions and concerns about the company’s long-term prospectus. I remain confident that Tesla is the leading player in both EVs and autonomous driving. Its AI-based FSD technology has the potential to disrupt the entire industry. I continue to be a long-term shareholder of Tesla and reiterate a “Strong Buy” with a one-year target price of $295 per share.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":329951595249776,"gmtCreate":1721560507812,"gmtModify":1721560512653,"authorId":3576140222331577,"author":{"id":3576140222331577,"authorId":3576140222331577,"name":"Guavaxf30","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ff15ff6aa254c9130f9af922f7e2447","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":329945652908064,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Oh, yes. I am almost certain Elon and Tesla will make some fantastic announcement just before results announcement on Tesday. ","text":"Oh, yes. I am almost certain Elon and Tesla will make some fantastic announcement just before results announcement on Tesday. ","html":"Oh, yes. I am almost certain Elon and Tesla will make some fantastic announcement just before results announcement on Tesday. "}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":329934695641192,"gmtCreate":1721556204355,"gmtModify":1721556209453,"author":{"id":"3577802495581908","authorId":"3577802495581908","authorIdStr":"3577802495581908","name":"AlanChanyh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3577802495581908"},"htmlText":"How much did Tesla pay you to write this article? Haha. Retail investor see this article and buy the stock and the big whales sell&nbsp;it to the investor beforethe next crash happens ???&nbsp;","listText":"How much did Tesla pay you to write this article? Haha. Retail investor see this article and buy the stock and the big whales sell&nbsp;it to the investor beforethe next crash happens ???&nbsp;","text":"How much did Tesla pay you to write this article? Haha. Retail investor see this article and buy the stock and the big whales sell it to the investor beforethe next crash happens ???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":18,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/329934695641192","repostId":2452861582,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2452861582","pubTimestamp":1721532600,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2452861582?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-07-21 11:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Q2 Preview: All The Negative News Does Not Affect My Bullish View","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2452861582","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"I upgraded Tesla, Inc. stock to “Strong Buy” in May 2024, and the stock price has surged by over 32% since then.Challenges include declining production/deliveries and delay of the Robotaxi event.Given","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>I upgraded Tesla, Inc. stock to “Strong Buy” in May 2024, and the stock price has surged by over 32% since then.</p></li><li><p>Challenges include declining production/deliveries and delay of the Robotaxi event.</p></li><li><p>Given confidence in Tesla&#39;s FSD technology, I am reiterating “Strong Buy” with a one-year target price of $295 per share.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b1cf0e0e0841430248c254baaf7e6d2\" alt=\"Monty Rakusen\" title=\"Monty Rakusen\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>Monty Rakusen</span></p><p>I upgraded <strong>Tesla, Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ:TSLA) to “Strong Buy” in my previous coverage published in May 2024, highlighting its growth opportunities in the full self-driving (FSD). Since then, the stock price has surged by more than 32%. The company is set to report its Q2 results on July 23rd after the market close. Although Tesla is facing challenges such as declining production/deliveries and a delay of the Robotaxi event, I remain confident in Tesla’s FSD technology, and reiterate a “Strong Buy” with a one-year target price of $295 per share.</p><h2 id=\"id_494102153\">Declining Production/Delivery</h2><p>Tesla released its Q2 production/delivery figures on July 2nd, showing a 1.7% decline in electric vehicle (“EV”) production and an 8.5% decline in delivery, as depicted in the chart below.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d0b7c1bc76a5ba79d2ec84b2d08fdaee\" alt=\"Tesla Quarterly Earnings\" title=\"Tesla Quarterly Earnings\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\"/><span>Tesla Quarterly Earnings</span></p><p>I think the decline in both production and delivery is quite reasonable and understandable. The reasons are:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Cox Automotive reported that EV sales in the U.S. grew by 11.3% year-over-year, reaching a record volume of 330,463 units. While Tesla remains the leading player, its market share has dropped below 50% for the first time due to the growth of other brands such as BMW, Cadillac, Honda, and Kia etc., as detailed in the table below. Tesla’s weak growth in Q2 could be caused by the introduction of new models from other brands, including BMW i5, Cadillac Lyriq and Kia EV9 SUV.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c847f6c18966b36bdc9c69a830eff7e7\" alt=\"Cox Automotive\" title=\"Cox Automotive\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"506\"/><span>Cox Automotive</span></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>As reported by the media, Tesla halted its production in German plant for five days in June to improve processes in the factory. The temporary shutdown may have impacted the total product and delivery growth in Q2. However, I view this event as one-time in nature.</p></li></ul><p>Overall, I remain confident with Tesla’s leading technology, both in EVs and autonomous driving, as emphasized in my previous coverage. It is understandable that other brands are beginning to launch more and more EV models to catch market share. However, the whole EV market is enormous, with penetration growth just beginning. According to Kelley Blue Book, EV sales accounted for only around 8% of total new-vehicle sales in Q2.</p><h2 id=\"id_1584496488\">Delay of Robotaxi</h2><p>Elon Musk confirmed that the upcoming Robotaxi event, originally scheduled on August 8th, has been delayed, with no new date announced yet. It appears that Tesla is still making some last-minute changes to its Robotaxi architecture. The delay might give Tesla’s R&amp;D team additional time to unveil a more advanced Robotaxi vehicle.</p><p>I don’t view the delay of Robotaxi as a material issue for the company. Instead, I am more interested in the progress that Tesla has made in its AI training. As discussed in my previous coverage, one of Tesla’s main competitive advantages is its vast real-world driving data, which can be leveraged for AI training. With AI-powered autonomous driving, Tesla has the potential to disrupt the entire autonomous driving market.</p><p>As reported by the media, Tesla is nearing completion of a new 50k H100 chip data center extension near its Giga Texas. In addition, Tesla is adding 20k of its HW 4.0 AI computers into the data center. The massive AI computing power could potentially accelerate advancement in its FSD.</p><h2 id=\"id_1242281489\">China Growth</h2><p>China is a critical region for Tesla, accounting for more than 20% of total revenue. BYD Company (OTCPK:BYDDF) posted a strong volume growth in June 2024, as shown in the chart below. BYD’s EV volume increased by 35.2% year-over-year in June, indicating a robust recovery in the domestic EV market.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dabf91dbe503bf270a9d1869df54a873\" alt=\"BYD Investor Relations\" title=\"BYD Investor Relations\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"244\"/><span>BYD Investor Relations</span></p><p>GizmoChina reported that Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory is currently operating at full capacity, with the Model Y production line producing a new car every 30 seconds. I anticipate that China will continue to be a strong growth market for Tesla. More importantly, as discussed in my previous coverage, Tesla’s FSD could potentially start to commercialize in China soon.</p><h2 id=\"id_1191694502\">Valuation Update</h2><p>As pointed out in my previous coverages, I don’t view Tesla solely as an automaker. Instead, FSD significantly enhances the company’s valuation.</p><p>I view FY24 as a transitional year for Tesla, facing several challenges, including a factory shutdown, price cut, new EV models launched by competitors, and delays in its Robotaxi event etc. Based on the current production and delivery data, I forecast a 3% decline in revenue for FY24.</p><p>For long-term growth rate, my calculation is straightforward. As discussed earlier, EV sales accounts for only 8% of total new-vehicles sales. I project that the EV market will grow at a CAGR of 19.8% over the next 10 years, assuming:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>The EV penetration will rise to 40% within the next decade.</p></li><li><p>The total passenger vehicle market will grow by 2% annually, primarily driven by population growth.</p></li></ul><p>In addition, I forecast FSD could potentially contribute an extra 5% to the topline growth. Consequently, I forecast Tesla will deliver a 25% growth in revenue in the near future.</p><p>The margin expansion will be driven by the operating leverage from business scales, primarily via gross profit leverage. In the DCF model, I assume the average selling price for EVs to decline over time, as more brands will participate in the market. I forecast Tesla can expand its margin by 90bps annually assuming the total operating expenses will grow by 23.7% year-over-year.</p><p>The discounted cash flow (&#34;DCF&#34;) summary can be found in the chart below:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7d24e0aa1f9c23c75bcf764662f954f4\" alt=\"Tesla DCF - Author&#39;s Calculations\" title=\"Tesla DCF - Author&#39;s Calculations\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\"/><span>Tesla DCF - Author&#39;s Calculations</span></p><p>I calculate the free cash flow from equity as follows:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cc46e0a24ffd698c507fada6b7e5dd60\" alt=\"Tesla DCF - Author&#39;s Calculations\" title=\"Tesla DCF - Author&#39;s Calculations\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"102\"/><span>Tesla DCF - Author&#39;s Calculations</span></p><p>The cost of equity is estimated to be 17% assuming: risk-free rate 4.2% (US 10Y Treasury Yield); beta 1.83 (SA); equity risk premium 7%. Discounting all the free cash flow, the one-year price target is calculated to be $295 per share, as per my estimate.</p><h2 id=\"id_3208630115\">Key Risks</h2><p>My valuation of Tesla relies on the success of its FSD technology. Without FSD, Tesla’s fair value would be at least $100 lower than my target price, as per my simulations. Tesla’s FSD technology has experienced several delays in the past. Of course, CEO Elon Musk has broken his promises numerous times as well.</p><p>Additionally, former President Trump has expressed intentions to end the Inflation Reduction Act and redirect EV credits to gasoline vehicles. If this were to happen, the entire EV market could face significant challenges.</p><h2 id=\"id_2158746352\">End Notes</h2><p>It looks like all the negative news has impacted Tesla in FY24, raising many questions and concerns about the company’s long-term prospectus. I remain confident that Tesla is the leading player in both EVs and autonomous driving. Its AI-based FSD technology has the potential to disrupt the entire industry. I continue to be a long-term shareholder of Tesla and reiterate a “Strong Buy” with a one-year target price of $295 per share.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Q2 Preview: All The Negative News Does Not Affect My Bullish View</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Q2 Preview: All The Negative News Does Not Affect My Bullish View\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-07-21 11:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4705197-tesla-q2-preview-all-the-negative-news-does-not-affect-my-bullish-view><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>I upgraded Tesla, Inc. stock to “Strong Buy” in May 2024, and the stock price has surged by over 32% since then.Challenges include declining production/deliveries and delay of the Robotaxi event.Given...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4705197-tesla-q2-preview-all-the-negative-news-does-not-affect-my-bullish-view\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4555":"新能源车","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","LU0820562030.AUD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMH2\" (AUDHDG) H2 INC","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","SG9999015945.SGD":"LionGlobal Disruptive Innovation Fund A SGD","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU2602419157.SGD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"AC\" (SGD) ACC","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","SG9999015978.USD":"利安颠覆性创新基金A","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","BK4099":"汽车制造商","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","LU2756315318.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (SGDHDG) INC A","TSLL":"Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares","SG9999015986.USD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","BK4017":"黄金","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4705197-tesla-q2-preview-all-the-negative-news-does-not-affect-my-bullish-view","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2452861582","content_text":"I upgraded Tesla, Inc. stock to “Strong Buy” in May 2024, and the stock price has surged by over 32% since then.Challenges include declining production/deliveries and delay of the Robotaxi event.Given confidence in Tesla's FSD technology, I am reiterating “Strong Buy” with a one-year target price of $295 per share.Monty RakusenI upgraded Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) to “Strong Buy” in my previous coverage published in May 2024, highlighting its growth opportunities in the full self-driving (FSD). Since then, the stock price has surged by more than 32%. The company is set to report its Q2 results on July 23rd after the market close. Although Tesla is facing challenges such as declining production/deliveries and a delay of the Robotaxi event, I remain confident in Tesla’s FSD technology, and reiterate a “Strong Buy” with a one-year target price of $295 per share.Declining Production/DeliveryTesla released its Q2 production/delivery figures on July 2nd, showing a 1.7% decline in electric vehicle (“EV”) production and an 8.5% decline in delivery, as depicted in the chart below.Tesla Quarterly EarningsI think the decline in both production and delivery is quite reasonable and understandable. The reasons are:Cox Automotive reported that EV sales in the U.S. grew by 11.3% year-over-year, reaching a record volume of 330,463 units. While Tesla remains the leading player, its market share has dropped below 50% for the first time due to the growth of other brands such as BMW, Cadillac, Honda, and Kia etc., as detailed in the table below. Tesla’s weak growth in Q2 could be caused by the introduction of new models from other brands, including BMW i5, Cadillac Lyriq and Kia EV9 SUV.Cox AutomotiveAs reported by the media, Tesla halted its production in German plant for five days in June to improve processes in the factory. The temporary shutdown may have impacted the total product and delivery growth in Q2. However, I view this event as one-time in nature.Overall, I remain confident with Tesla’s leading technology, both in EVs and autonomous driving, as emphasized in my previous coverage. It is understandable that other brands are beginning to launch more and more EV models to catch market share. However, the whole EV market is enormous, with penetration growth just beginning. According to Kelley Blue Book, EV sales accounted for only around 8% of total new-vehicle sales in Q2.Delay of RobotaxiElon Musk confirmed that the upcoming Robotaxi event, originally scheduled on August 8th, has been delayed, with no new date announced yet. It appears that Tesla is still making some last-minute changes to its Robotaxi architecture. The delay might give Tesla’s R&D team additional time to unveil a more advanced Robotaxi vehicle.I don’t view the delay of Robotaxi as a material issue for the company. Instead, I am more interested in the progress that Tesla has made in its AI training. As discussed in my previous coverage, one of Tesla’s main competitive advantages is its vast real-world driving data, which can be leveraged for AI training. With AI-powered autonomous driving, Tesla has the potential to disrupt the entire autonomous driving market.As reported by the media, Tesla is nearing completion of a new 50k H100 chip data center extension near its Giga Texas. In addition, Tesla is adding 20k of its HW 4.0 AI computers into the data center. The massive AI computing power could potentially accelerate advancement in its FSD.China GrowthChina is a critical region for Tesla, accounting for more than 20% of total revenue. BYD Company (OTCPK:BYDDF) posted a strong volume growth in June 2024, as shown in the chart below. BYD’s EV volume increased by 35.2% year-over-year in June, indicating a robust recovery in the domestic EV market.BYD Investor RelationsGizmoChina reported that Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory is currently operating at full capacity, with the Model Y production line producing a new car every 30 seconds. I anticipate that China will continue to be a strong growth market for Tesla. More importantly, as discussed in my previous coverage, Tesla’s FSD could potentially start to commercialize in China soon.Valuation UpdateAs pointed out in my previous coverages, I don’t view Tesla solely as an automaker. Instead, FSD significantly enhances the company’s valuation.I view FY24 as a transitional year for Tesla, facing several challenges, including a factory shutdown, price cut, new EV models launched by competitors, and delays in its Robotaxi event etc. Based on the current production and delivery data, I forecast a 3% decline in revenue for FY24.For long-term growth rate, my calculation is straightforward. As discussed earlier, EV sales accounts for only 8% of total new-vehicles sales. I project that the EV market will grow at a CAGR of 19.8% over the next 10 years, assuming:The EV penetration will rise to 40% within the next decade.The total passenger vehicle market will grow by 2% annually, primarily driven by population growth.In addition, I forecast FSD could potentially contribute an extra 5% to the topline growth. Consequently, I forecast Tesla will deliver a 25% growth in revenue in the near future.The margin expansion will be driven by the operating leverage from business scales, primarily via gross profit leverage. In the DCF model, I assume the average selling price for EVs to decline over time, as more brands will participate in the market. I forecast Tesla can expand its margin by 90bps annually assuming the total operating expenses will grow by 23.7% year-over-year.The discounted cash flow (\"DCF\") summary can be found in the chart below:Tesla DCF - Author's CalculationsI calculate the free cash flow from equity as follows:Tesla DCF - Author's CalculationsThe cost of equity is estimated to be 17% assuming: risk-free rate 4.2% (US 10Y Treasury Yield); beta 1.83 (SA); equity risk premium 7%. Discounting all the free cash flow, the one-year price target is calculated to be $295 per share, as per my estimate.Key RisksMy valuation of Tesla relies on the success of its FSD technology. Without FSD, Tesla’s fair value would be at least $100 lower than my target price, as per my simulations. Tesla’s FSD technology has experienced several delays in the past. Of course, CEO Elon Musk has broken his promises numerous times as well.Additionally, former President Trump has expressed intentions to end the Inflation Reduction Act and redirect EV credits to gasoline vehicles. If this were to happen, the entire EV market could face significant challenges.End NotesIt looks like all the negative news has impacted Tesla in FY24, raising many questions and concerns about the company’s long-term prospectus. I remain confident that Tesla is the leading player in both EVs and autonomous driving. Its AI-based FSD technology has the potential to disrupt the entire industry. I continue to be a long-term shareholder of Tesla and reiterate a “Strong Buy” with a one-year target price of $295 per share.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":329907599352104,"gmtCreate":1721549518009,"gmtModify":1721549521904,"author":{"id":"4091363089250230","authorId":"4091363089250230","authorIdStr":"4091363089250230","name":"CaseyLKC","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4091363089250230"},"htmlText":"Great, all depends on the strong fundamentals&nbsp;","listText":"Great, all depends on the strong fundamentals&nbsp;","text":"Great, all depends on the strong fundamentals","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/329907599352104","repostId":2452861582,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":24,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":3,"favoriteSize":3,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}