Everybody knows that Super Micro Computer Inc. is top dog in the artificial-intelligence server market with a "dominant share," according to Mizuho Securities - but that doesn't mean investors should buy the stock.
"AI servers comprise the infrastructure of the AI revolution," Rakesh wrote in a note to clients Tuesday, and he sees two major original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in the server sector leading the way.
Super Micro $(SMCI)$ is the "consensus AI leader," Rakesh said, while Dell Technologies Inc. $(DELL)$ is in second place.
But Rakesh said investors should buy Dell's stock, and not Super Micro's.
Super Micro shares dropped 2.7% in afternoon trading, while Dell shares gained 0.6%.
Super Micro was still doing better year to date, up 53.7% versus a 51.7% gain for Dell. But since March 13, when Super Micro's stock closed at a record $1,188.07 - with a year-to-date gain at the time of 318% - Super Micro shares have plunged 63.2%, while Dell's stock has gained 5.5%.
Rakesh initiated coverage of Super Micro at neutral. He set a $450 price target on the stock, which implies just 3% upside from current levels.
The problem with the stock, according to Rakesh, is that Super Micro is losing market share while its pricing and margins are being pressured by increased competition from Dell. Add to that the company's regulatory issues, given the uncertainty surrounding filing requirements.
Rakesh noted that Super Micro had 80% to 100% of the AI server market in 2022 to 2023, but said that will be down to about 40% to 50% this year.
"While [Super Micro] has benefited from a first-mover advantage and favorable [graphics processing unit] allocation in a tight market, we believe server architectures have relatively low differentiation and barriers to entry," Rakesh wrote.
That's allowing those in the in conventional server market, like Dell, to gain market share.
Rakesh also expects AI GPU supply to gradually improve over the next few years, which should lead to lower market prices and put pressure on Super Micro's profit margins.
He also initiated Dell's stock, but with an outperform rating. His $135 price target implies about 16% upside from current levels.
Dell is the leader in the overall server market, with about 13% market share in 2023. But with a "robust" supply chain, Rakesh said the company is growing its piece of the AI server market.
"We see Dell taking share due to lack of differentiation between server OEMs in the AI server market and Dell's ability to offer competitive pricing due to strong storage/services offering to pair with AI servers to capture further revenue over the long term," Rakesh wrote.