Alibaba Breather (Rating Downgrade)

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Alibaba Breather (Rating Downgrade)

seekingalpha09-29

Alibaba is up +60% from my January bottom call, on rising optimism about China's economy for 2025.However, the stock quote is getting extremely overbought, and could witness 2-3 months of retracement ...

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Max87
·09-30
Lol you'll miss the train
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Hen Solo
·09-30
🇨🇳 📰 🏡 🇨🇳 PBOC: TO CUT MORTGAGE RATES FOR 1ST AND 2ND HOME BY AROUND 50 BPS. ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS MUST IN BATCHES LOWER INTEREST RATES ON ALL EXISTING MORTGAGES BY OCT 31 TO NO LESS THAN 30 BASIS POINTS BELOW PBOC'S LOAN PRIME RATE. 🇨🇳Shows how serious they are about this, they couldnt wait until after the national holiday. They want 1 BIILION people to spend and feel good during the holiday. It’s a major marker of sentiment and the best holiday opportunity each year for generating consumption. - Shenzhen just announced non-local residents can purchase a home in the city. - For the core areas such as Futian and Luohu, non-local resident is eligible to buy a home if they pay social security or personal income tax for at least 1 year (vs current 3 year) - !! Guangzhou just announced to remo
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- TigerGPT:
  Here are some news articles related to the recent developments in China's mortgage rates and home purchase restrictions:
  China to Allow Home Buyers to Refinance Mortgages in Latest Easing Move - China has announced that it will allow home buyers to refinance their mortgages, enabling the policies aimed at addressing the property-sector slowdown to have a greater impact on the market.
  
  China to cut existing mortgage rates by end-Oct, cities ease home purchase restrictions - Banks in China will reduce rates by approximately 50 basis points on existing mortgage loans, and several major cities, including Shenzhen and Guangzhou, have eased their home purchase restrictions. These measures aim to stimulate the weak property market and boost consumption.
  
  China tells banks to start cutting rates on existing mortgages - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has instructed commercial banks to lower interest rates on all existing housing loans by no less than 30 basis points below the PBOC's Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by the end of October. This move is intended to alleviate the mortgage burden on households affected by the slowing economy.
  
  Please note that the news articles provided are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. It is important to conduct thorough research and consider various factors before making any investment decisions.
  If you would like more specific information or analysis on a particular stock or investment opportunity, please let me know.
  Risk Disclaimer: The information provided is for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing in financial markets involves risks, and you should carefully consider your investment objectives and risk tolerance before participating in the market.
  09-30
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Danielng
·09-29
Dumb
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Gzgz
·09-29
Definitely SA sold some calls
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(NYSE:BABA) announcing some cutting-edge open AI tools last week, followed by recently announced People's Bank of China credit easing (the largest since the 2020 pandemic) alongside promises for stimulus efforts yesterday (September 26th, 2024) by China's Politburo, short covering and investor interest in this leading Asian powerhouse have rushed forward. The net result has been a spike in Alibaba's share quote, with the ADR now above US$100 per share.For regular readers, I reversed my long-held rating of the company from a neutral to bearish stance into a Buy view for the first time ever in January of this year, days from its 52-week low trade. Shareholders have not been disappointed for performance since then. Over the past eight months, BABA, including dividends, has generated a total return of +60%, easily beating both the S&P 500 index and nearly every Big Tech name in America for investor performance.Seeking Alpha - Paul Franke, Alibaba Article, January 22nd, 2024The reasons for optimism included a new dividend payout with large ongoing share buybacks, an unusually strong Accumulation/Distribution Line, near universal pessimism on the stock for overbaked sentiment, an extremely low valuation vs. peer businesses around the world, and the decent odds China's economy would not implode.Yet, the easy money has already been made in BABA into late September. It is becoming quite clear the company has a brighter future than most retail investors and analysts imagined possible during early summer. From my perspective, the rational course of action is to expect a breather/rest period in upside price movement, perhaps even a flat line for investor gains over the next 6-12 months.As a consequence of less bullish momentum patterns, and a view selling this \"rip\" higher in price may prove the prudent course of action for short-term traders/investors, I am downgrading my official view of the stock from Buy to Hold. I am now forecasting a range for price trading between $85 and $120 into next summer.Underlying Momentum IndicatorsPerhaps the most critical short-term investment puzzle piece that has me backing away from Alibaba is the technical chart has becoming completely \"overbought\" on the latest rapid ascent in price.My overbought setup idea is drawn below. I have circled extremely stretched readings in several useful volatility and price change indicators, similar to today. The list of signal-callers includes the 14-day Average Directional Index, Bollinger Band Width (20,2) calculation, and 14-day Relative Strength Index. When they reach high levels in unison, the stock quote generally peaks for at least a month or two.StockCharts.com - Alibaba, 30 Months of Price & Volume Changes, Author Reference PointsIn addition, numerous general momentum indicators I track are not quite screaming Buy Me, like they were earlier in the year. The majority of indicators are higher than a few months ago, but not in the amazing fashion you would expect to match super-strong price action.In particular, the uniquely robust Accumulation/Distribution Line pattern between June 2023 and February 2024 (boxed in blue below) has faded. To confirm additional price gains are approaching, I would've liked the ADL, Negative Volume Index, and On Balance Volume readings to show up a little better.StockCharts.com - Alibaba, 18 Months of Price & Volume Changes, Author Reference PointsValuation NormalizingAlibaba has fallen from an overall \"B\" Quant Valuation Grade in January to a \"D\" currently on its September price spike. Given most individual components remain in the \"B\" to \"C\" range, I think an overall rating of \"C\" fits in line with my thinking.Seeking Alpha Table - Alibaba, Quant Valuation Grades, September 26th, 2024While its valuation does remain in the middle to cheaper end of the spectrum vs. peers and competitors (especially those operating inside China), the overall underlying nominal range is now the same as late 2022 and the first half of 2023. So, the level of undervaluation on metrics like enterprise value (including equity worth plus total debt minus cash) to EBITDA or sales is not a standout buy proposition for this Asian blue-chip name.YCharts - Alibaba vs. Online Retailers & Peers, EV to EBITDA, 3 YearsYCharts - Alibaba vs. Online Retailers & Peers, EV to Sales, 3 YearsAgain, one persuasive bullish argument to continue ownership is the new dividend. The roughly 2% in cash distributions available annually is running at nearly double the S&P 500 rate of 1.2%.YCharts - Alibaba vs. Online Retailers & Peers, Trailing Dividend Yield, 1 YearFinal ThoughtsDo I consider Alibaba a stock to avoid? Not really. If you can purchase a stake on weakness, perhaps back to $90 or below, this security is a smart way to diversify your wealth away from U.S. markets. It's focus on sales in mainland China, Hong Kong, and other parts of Asia is worthy of your attention. If the Chinese economy can rebound from feeble 2024 economic growth during 2025, shareholders should earn a steady return, with a 2% dividend yield and share buybacks supporting you.What are the risks? The overriding risk revolves around Chinese government decision-making, including regulations on capital outflows to the rest of the world, alongside questionable signals about attracting/keeping foreign manufacturers (many are moving operations to nearby Asian nations).You could also wake up one morning and find it difficult to actually sell your shares on the American market as a delisting action/reaction to military escalations over Taiwan. Fortunately, shares are listed in Hong Kong, which may provide an option for trading if you can switch your share ownership to a brokerage outside of the U.S.Otherwise, changing economic fortunes in Asia (growth/recession) will drive the Alibaba quote, sitting at a fair valuation setup today. For sure, with a P/E under 12x and price to sales hovering around 2x projections for the current fiscal year (ending March 2025), investors do retain some headline value holding ADR shares around $100.Seeking Alpha Table - Alibaba, Analyst Estimates for 2024-26, Made September 26th, 2024My summary view is a period of retracement and digestion back to the $90s seems likely for months. After that is finished, a resumption of nice gains could reappear in 2025. For the time being I am downgrading Alibaba to Hold/Neutral, for a 12-month outlook. There is still no guarantee a global recession can be avoided over the next year. If we do experience one, BABA may still be trading under $100 next summer. At this point, if you own a position, selling covered calls may prove an excellent strategy to capture some income (and/or hedge the latest sharp gain) while we wait.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"analysis","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[{"id":354963578954144,"gmtCreate":1727664439939,"gmtModify":1727664444061,"author":{"id":"3566067400555906","authorId":"3566067400555906","name":"Max87","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/219d0a08ffb0e55100e7065a33ff101a","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3566067400555906","authorIdStr":"3566067400555906"},"htmlText":"Lol you'll miss the train","listText":"Lol you'll miss the train","text":"Lol you'll miss the train","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/354963578954144","repostId":2470410060,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2470410060","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1727589749,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2470410060?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-29 14:02","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Breather (Rating Downgrade)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2470410060","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is up +60% from my January bottom call, on rising optimism about China's economy for 2025.However, the stock quote is getting extremely overbought, and could witness 2-3 months of retracement ","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li>Alibaba is up +60% from my January bottom call, on rising optimism about China&#39;s economy for 2025.</li><li>However, the stock quote is getting extremely overbought, and could witness 2-3 months of retracement action, before another push higher appears.</li><li>I am reducing my 12-month outlook to Hold/Neutral, with an expected trading range of $85 to $120 going forward.</li></ul><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8fc71f2c8a6c227151324907cbe1f425\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"503\"/>OJO Images/OJO Images via Getty ImagesWith Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (NYSE:BABA) announcing some cutting-edge open AI tools last week, followed by recently announced People&#39;s Bank of China credit easing (the largest since the 2020 pandemic) alongside promises for stimulus efforts yesterday (September 26th, 2024) by China&#39;s Politburo, short covering and investor interest in this leading Asian powerhouse have rushed forward. The net result has been a spike in Alibaba&#39;s share quote, with the ADR now above US$100 per share.For regular readers, I reversed my long-held rating of the company from a neutral to bearish stance into a Buy view for the first time ever in January of this year, days from its 52-week low trade. Shareholders have not been disappointed for performance since then. Over the past eight months, BABA, including dividends, has generated a total return of +60%, easily beating both the S&amp;P 500 index and nearly every Big Tech name in America for investor performance.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/09f1d506cca6bbe35b681e6e8d6461ea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"333\"/>Seeking Alpha - Paul Franke, Alibaba Article, January 22nd, 2024The reasons for optimism included a new dividend payout with large ongoing share buybacks, an unusually strong Accumulation/Distribution Line, near universal pessimism on the stock for overbaked sentiment, an extremely low valuation vs. peer businesses around the world, and the decent odds China&#39;s economy would not implode.Yet, the easy money has already been made in BABA into late September. It is becoming quite clear the company has a brighter future than most retail investors and analysts imagined possible during early summer. From my perspective, the rational course of action is to expect a breather/rest period in upside price movement, perhaps even a flat line for investor gains over the next 6-12 months.As a consequence of less bullish momentum patterns, and a view selling this &#34;rip&#34; higher in price may prove the prudent course of action for short-term traders/investors, I am downgrading my official view of the stock from Buy to Hold. I am now forecasting a range for price trading between $85 and $120 into next summer.<h2 id=\"id_2578874882\">Underlying Momentum Indicators</h2>Perhaps the most critical short-term investment puzzle piece that has me backing away from Alibaba is the technical chart has becoming completely &#34;overbought&#34; on the latest rapid ascent in price.My overbought setup idea is drawn below. I have circled extremely stretched readings in several useful volatility and price change indicators, similar to today. The list of signal-callers includes the 14-day Average Directional Index, Bollinger Band Width (20,2) calculation, and 14-day Relative Strength Index. When they reach high levels in unison, the stock quote generally peaks for at least a month or two.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f911359a685deca1879952bb34af4edc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"477\"/>StockCharts.com - Alibaba, 30 Months of Price &amp; Volume Changes, Author Reference PointsIn addition, numerous general momentum indicators I track are not quite screaming Buy Me, like they were earlier in the year. The majority of indicators are higher than a few months ago, but not in the amazing fashion you would expect to match super-strong price action.In particular, the uniquely robust Accumulation/Distribution Line pattern between June 2023 and February 2024 (boxed in blue below) has faded. To confirm additional price gains are approaching, I would&#39;ve liked the ADL, Negative Volume Index, and On Balance Volume readings to show up a little better.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/447fb49afb61718738a7318b0b06b23c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"477\"/>StockCharts.com - Alibaba, 18 Months of Price &amp; Volume Changes, Author Reference Points<h2 id=\"id_1268104433\">Valuation Normalizing</h2>Alibaba has fallen from an overall &#34;B&#34; Quant Valuation Grade in January to a &#34;D&#34; currently on its September price spike. Given most individual components remain in the &#34;B&#34; to &#34;C&#34; range, I think an overall rating of &#34;C&#34; fits in line with my thinking.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fd9d5e72d18aa9341b5afdfd82c1f767\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"669\"/>Seeking Alpha Table - Alibaba, Quant Valuation Grades, September 26th, 2024While its valuation does remain in the middle to cheaper end of the spectrum vs. peers and competitors (especially those operating inside China), the overall underlying nominal range is now the same as late 2022 and the first half of 2023. So, the level of undervaluation on metrics like enterprise value (including equity worth plus total debt minus cash) to EBITDA or sales is not a standout buy proposition for this Asian blue-chip name.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2895f8e63e61db6159fef8185a8388d4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"524\"/>YCharts - Alibaba vs. Online Retailers &amp; Peers, EV to EBITDA, 3 Years<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/87c78b7cd740a45680f5ecf0e009910c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"524\"/>YCharts - Alibaba vs. Online Retailers &amp; Peers, EV to Sales, 3 YearsAgain, one persuasive bullish argument to continue ownership is the new dividend. The roughly 2% in cash distributions available annually is running at nearly double the S&amp;P 500 rate of 1.2%.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f9127fe63e6c7e90091c969f6dcc4384\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"541\"/>YCharts - Alibaba vs. Online Retailers &amp; Peers, Trailing Dividend Yield, 1 Year<h2 id=\"id_2699449060\">Final Thoughts</h2>Do I consider Alibaba a stock to avoid? Not really. If you can purchase a stake on weakness, perhaps back to $90 or below, this security is a smart way to diversify your wealth away from U.S. markets. It&#39;s focus on sales in mainland China, Hong Kong, and other parts of Asia is worthy of your attention. If the Chinese economy can rebound from feeble 2024 economic growth during 2025, shareholders should earn a steady return, with a 2% dividend yield and share buybacks supporting you.What are the risks? The overriding risk revolves around Chinese government decision-making, including regulations on capital outflows to the rest of the world, alongside questionable signals about attracting/keeping foreign manufacturers (many are moving operations to nearby Asian nations).You could also wake up one morning and find it difficult to actually sell your shares on the American market as a delisting action/reaction to military escalations over Taiwan. Fortunately, shares are listed in Hong Kong, which may provide an option for trading if you can switch your share ownership to a brokerage outside of the U.S.Otherwise, changing economic fortunes in Asia (growth/recession) will drive the Alibaba quote, sitting at a fair valuation setup today. For sure, with a P/E under 12x and price to sales hovering around 2x projections for the current fiscal year (ending March 2025), investors do retain some headline value holding ADR shares around $100.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fd9e993ce1c171173f194e35d2d57c96\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"237\"/>Seeking Alpha Table - Alibaba, Analyst Estimates for 2024-26, Made September 26th, 2024My summary view is a period of retracement and digestion back to the $90s seems likely for months. After that is finished, a resumption of nice gains could reappear in 2025. For the time being I am downgrading Alibaba to Hold/Neutral, for a 12-month outlook. There is still no guarantee a global recession can be avoided over the next year. If we do experience one, BABA may still be trading under $100 next summer. At this point, if you own a position, selling covered calls may prove an excellent strategy to capture some income (and/or hedge the latest sharp gain) while we wait.</body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Breather (Rating Downgrade)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Breather (Rating Downgrade)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-29 14:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4723951-alibaba-breather-rating-downgrade>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nAlibaba is up +60% from my January bottom call, on rising optimism about China's economy for 2025.However, the stock quote is getting extremely overbought, and could witness 2-3 months of retracement ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4723951-alibaba-breather-rating-downgrade\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4723951-alibaba-breather-rating-downgrade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2470410060","content_text":"Alibaba is up +60% from my January bottom call, on rising optimism about China's economy for 2025.However, the stock quote is getting extremely overbought, and could witness 2-3 months of retracement action, before another push higher appears.I am reducing my 12-month outlook to Hold/Neutral, with an expected trading range of $85 to $120 going forward.OJO Images/OJO Images via Getty ImagesWith Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (NYSE:BABA) announcing some cutting-edge open AI tools last week, followed by recently announced People's Bank of China credit easing (the largest since the 2020 pandemic) alongside promises for stimulus efforts yesterday (September 26th, 2024) by China's Politburo, short covering and investor interest in this leading Asian powerhouse have rushed forward. The net result has been a spike in Alibaba's share quote, with the ADR now above US$100 per share.For regular readers, I reversed my long-held rating of the company from a neutral to bearish stance into a Buy view for the first time ever in January of this year, days from its 52-week low trade. Shareholders have not been disappointed for performance since then. Over the past eight months, BABA, including dividends, has generated a total return of +60%, easily beating both the S&P 500 index and nearly every Big Tech name in America for investor performance.Seeking Alpha - Paul Franke, Alibaba Article, January 22nd, 2024The reasons for optimism included a new dividend payout with large ongoing share buybacks, an unusually strong Accumulation/Distribution Line, near universal pessimism on the stock for overbaked sentiment, an extremely low valuation vs. peer businesses around the world, and the decent odds China's economy would not implode.Yet, the easy money has already been made in BABA into late September. It is becoming quite clear the company has a brighter future than most retail investors and analysts imagined possible during early summer. From my perspective, the rational course of action is to expect a breather/rest period in upside price movement, perhaps even a flat line for investor gains over the next 6-12 months.As a consequence of less bullish momentum patterns, and a view selling this \"rip\" higher in price may prove the prudent course of action for short-term traders/investors, I am downgrading my official view of the stock from Buy to Hold. I am now forecasting a range for price trading between $85 and $120 into next summer.Underlying Momentum IndicatorsPerhaps the most critical short-term investment puzzle piece that has me backing away from Alibaba is the technical chart has becoming completely \"overbought\" on the latest rapid ascent in price.My overbought setup idea is drawn below. I have circled extremely stretched readings in several useful volatility and price change indicators, similar to today. The list of signal-callers includes the 14-day Average Directional Index, Bollinger Band Width (20,2) calculation, and 14-day Relative Strength Index. When they reach high levels in unison, the stock quote generally peaks for at least a month or two.StockCharts.com - Alibaba, 30 Months of Price & Volume Changes, Author Reference PointsIn addition, numerous general momentum indicators I track are not quite screaming Buy Me, like they were earlier in the year. The majority of indicators are higher than a few months ago, but not in the amazing fashion you would expect to match super-strong price action.In particular, the uniquely robust Accumulation/Distribution Line pattern between June 2023 and February 2024 (boxed in blue below) has faded. To confirm additional price gains are approaching, I would've liked the ADL, Negative Volume Index, and On Balance Volume readings to show up a little better.StockCharts.com - Alibaba, 18 Months of Price & Volume Changes, Author Reference PointsValuation NormalizingAlibaba has fallen from an overall \"B\" Quant Valuation Grade in January to a \"D\" currently on its September price spike. Given most individual components remain in the \"B\" to \"C\" range, I think an overall rating of \"C\" fits in line with my thinking.Seeking Alpha Table - Alibaba, Quant Valuation Grades, September 26th, 2024While its valuation does remain in the middle to cheaper end of the spectrum vs. peers and competitors (especially those operating inside China), the overall underlying nominal range is now the same as late 2022 and the first half of 2023. So, the level of undervaluation on metrics like enterprise value (including equity worth plus total debt minus cash) to EBITDA or sales is not a standout buy proposition for this Asian blue-chip name.YCharts - Alibaba vs. Online Retailers & Peers, EV to EBITDA, 3 YearsYCharts - Alibaba vs. Online Retailers & Peers, EV to Sales, 3 YearsAgain, one persuasive bullish argument to continue ownership is the new dividend. The roughly 2% in cash distributions available annually is running at nearly double the S&P 500 rate of 1.2%.YCharts - Alibaba vs. Online Retailers & Peers, Trailing Dividend Yield, 1 YearFinal ThoughtsDo I consider Alibaba a stock to avoid? Not really. If you can purchase a stake on weakness, perhaps back to $90 or below, this security is a smart way to diversify your wealth away from U.S. markets. It's focus on sales in mainland China, Hong Kong, and other parts of Asia is worthy of your attention. If the Chinese economy can rebound from feeble 2024 economic growth during 2025, shareholders should earn a steady return, with a 2% dividend yield and share buybacks supporting you.What are the risks? The overriding risk revolves around Chinese government decision-making, including regulations on capital outflows to the rest of the world, alongside questionable signals about attracting/keeping foreign manufacturers (many are moving operations to nearby Asian nations).You could also wake up one morning and find it difficult to actually sell your shares on the American market as a delisting action/reaction to military escalations over Taiwan. Fortunately, shares are listed in Hong Kong, which may provide an option for trading if you can switch your share ownership to a brokerage outside of the U.S.Otherwise, changing economic fortunes in Asia (growth/recession) will drive the Alibaba quote, sitting at a fair valuation setup today. For sure, with a P/E under 12x and price to sales hovering around 2x projections for the current fiscal year (ending March 2025), investors do retain some headline value holding ADR shares around $100.Seeking Alpha Table - Alibaba, Analyst Estimates for 2024-26, Made September 26th, 2024My summary view is a period of retracement and digestion back to the $90s seems likely for months. After that is finished, a resumption of nice gains could reappear in 2025. For the time being I am downgrading Alibaba to Hold/Neutral, for a 12-month outlook. There is still no guarantee a global recession can be avoided over the next year. If we do experience one, BABA may still be trading under $100 next summer. At this point, if you own a position, selling covered calls may prove an excellent strategy to capture some income (and/or hedge the latest sharp gain) while we wait.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":354824264225152,"gmtCreate":1727636492817,"gmtModify":1727636500112,"author":{"id":"4172287591330932","authorId":"4172287591330932","name":"Hen Solo","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e8f9d57b757c07c87986ef8a0be25085","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4172287591330932","authorIdStr":"4172287591330932"},"htmlText":"🇨🇳 📰 🏡 🇨🇳 PBOC: TO CUT MORTGAGE RATES FOR 1ST AND 2ND HOME BY AROUND 50 BPS. ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS MUST IN BATCHES LOWER INTEREST RATES ON ALL EXISTING MORTGAGES BY OCT 31 TO NO LESS THAN 30 BASIS POINTS BELOW PBOC'S LOAN PRIME RATE. 🇨🇳Shows how serious they are about this, they couldnt wait until after the national holiday. They want 1 BIILION people to spend and feel good during the holiday. It’s a major marker of sentiment and the best holiday opportunity each year for generating consumption. - Shenzhen just announced non-local residents can purchase a home in the city. - For the core areas such as Futian and Luohu, non-local resident is eligible to buy a home if they pay social security or personal income tax for at least 1 year (vs current 3 year) - !! Guangzhou just announced to remo","listText":"🇨🇳 📰 🏡 🇨🇳 PBOC: TO CUT MORTGAGE RATES FOR 1ST AND 2ND HOME BY AROUND 50 BPS. ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS MUST IN BATCHES LOWER INTEREST RATES ON ALL EXISTING MORTGAGES BY OCT 31 TO NO LESS THAN 30 BASIS POINTS BELOW PBOC'S LOAN PRIME RATE. 🇨🇳Shows how serious they are about this, they couldnt wait until after the national holiday. They want 1 BIILION people to spend and feel good during the holiday. It’s a major marker of sentiment and the best holiday opportunity each year for generating consumption. - Shenzhen just announced non-local residents can purchase a home in the city. - For the core areas such as Futian and Luohu, non-local resident is eligible to buy a home if they pay social security or personal income tax for at least 1 year (vs current 3 year) - !! Guangzhou just announced to remo","text":"🇨🇳 📰 🏡 🇨🇳 PBOC: TO CUT MORTGAGE RATES FOR 1ST AND 2ND HOME BY AROUND 50 BPS. ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS MUST IN BATCHES LOWER INTEREST RATES ON ALL EXISTING MORTGAGES BY OCT 31 TO NO LESS THAN 30 BASIS POINTS BELOW PBOC'S LOAN PRIME RATE. 🇨🇳Shows how serious they are about this, they couldnt wait until after the national holiday. They want 1 BIILION people to spend and feel good during the holiday. It’s a major marker of sentiment and the best holiday opportunity each year for generating consumption. - Shenzhen just announced non-local residents can purchase a home in the city. - For the core areas such as Futian and Luohu, non-local resident is eligible to buy a home if they pay social security or personal income tax for at least 1 year (vs current 3 year) - !! Guangzhou just announced to remo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/354824264225152","repostId":2470410060,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2470410060","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1727589749,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2470410060?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-29 14:02","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Breather (Rating Downgrade)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2470410060","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is up +60% from my January bottom call, on rising optimism about China's economy for 2025.However, the stock quote is getting extremely overbought, and could witness 2-3 months of retracement ","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li>Alibaba is up +60% from my January bottom call, on rising optimism about China&#39;s economy for 2025.</li><li>However, the stock quote is getting extremely overbought, and could witness 2-3 months of retracement action, before another push higher appears.</li><li>I am reducing my 12-month outlook to Hold/Neutral, with an expected trading range of $85 to $120 going forward.</li></ul><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8fc71f2c8a6c227151324907cbe1f425\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"503\"/>OJO Images/OJO Images via Getty ImagesWith Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (NYSE:BABA) announcing some cutting-edge open AI tools last week, followed by recently announced People&#39;s Bank of China credit easing (the largest since the 2020 pandemic) alongside promises for stimulus efforts yesterday (September 26th, 2024) by China&#39;s Politburo, short covering and investor interest in this leading Asian powerhouse have rushed forward. The net result has been a spike in Alibaba&#39;s share quote, with the ADR now above US$100 per share.For regular readers, I reversed my long-held rating of the company from a neutral to bearish stance into a Buy view for the first time ever in January of this year, days from its 52-week low trade. Shareholders have not been disappointed for performance since then. Over the past eight months, BABA, including dividends, has generated a total return of +60%, easily beating both the S&amp;P 500 index and nearly every Big Tech name in America for investor performance.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/09f1d506cca6bbe35b681e6e8d6461ea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"333\"/>Seeking Alpha - Paul Franke, Alibaba Article, January 22nd, 2024The reasons for optimism included a new dividend payout with large ongoing share buybacks, an unusually strong Accumulation/Distribution Line, near universal pessimism on the stock for overbaked sentiment, an extremely low valuation vs. peer businesses around the world, and the decent odds China&#39;s economy would not implode.Yet, the easy money has already been made in BABA into late September. It is becoming quite clear the company has a brighter future than most retail investors and analysts imagined possible during early summer. From my perspective, the rational course of action is to expect a breather/rest period in upside price movement, perhaps even a flat line for investor gains over the next 6-12 months.As a consequence of less bullish momentum patterns, and a view selling this &#34;rip&#34; higher in price may prove the prudent course of action for short-term traders/investors, I am downgrading my official view of the stock from Buy to Hold. I am now forecasting a range for price trading between $85 and $120 into next summer.<h2 id=\"id_2578874882\">Underlying Momentum Indicators</h2>Perhaps the most critical short-term investment puzzle piece that has me backing away from Alibaba is the technical chart has becoming completely &#34;overbought&#34; on the latest rapid ascent in price.My overbought setup idea is drawn below. I have circled extremely stretched readings in several useful volatility and price change indicators, similar to today. The list of signal-callers includes the 14-day Average Directional Index, Bollinger Band Width (20,2) calculation, and 14-day Relative Strength Index. When they reach high levels in unison, the stock quote generally peaks for at least a month or two.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f911359a685deca1879952bb34af4edc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"477\"/>StockCharts.com - Alibaba, 30 Months of Price &amp; Volume Changes, Author Reference PointsIn addition, numerous general momentum indicators I track are not quite screaming Buy Me, like they were earlier in the year. The majority of indicators are higher than a few months ago, but not in the amazing fashion you would expect to match super-strong price action.In particular, the uniquely robust Accumulation/Distribution Line pattern between June 2023 and February 2024 (boxed in blue below) has faded. To confirm additional price gains are approaching, I would&#39;ve liked the ADL, Negative Volume Index, and On Balance Volume readings to show up a little better.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/447fb49afb61718738a7318b0b06b23c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"477\"/>StockCharts.com - Alibaba, 18 Months of Price &amp; Volume Changes, Author Reference Points<h2 id=\"id_1268104433\">Valuation Normalizing</h2>Alibaba has fallen from an overall &#34;B&#34; Quant Valuation Grade in January to a &#34;D&#34; currently on its September price spike. Given most individual components remain in the &#34;B&#34; to &#34;C&#34; range, I think an overall rating of &#34;C&#34; fits in line with my thinking.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fd9d5e72d18aa9341b5afdfd82c1f767\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"669\"/>Seeking Alpha Table - Alibaba, Quant Valuation Grades, September 26th, 2024While its valuation does remain in the middle to cheaper end of the spectrum vs. peers and competitors (especially those operating inside China), the overall underlying nominal range is now the same as late 2022 and the first half of 2023. So, the level of undervaluation on metrics like enterprise value (including equity worth plus total debt minus cash) to EBITDA or sales is not a standout buy proposition for this Asian blue-chip name.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2895f8e63e61db6159fef8185a8388d4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"524\"/>YCharts - Alibaba vs. Online Retailers &amp; Peers, EV to EBITDA, 3 Years<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/87c78b7cd740a45680f5ecf0e009910c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"524\"/>YCharts - Alibaba vs. Online Retailers &amp; Peers, EV to Sales, 3 YearsAgain, one persuasive bullish argument to continue ownership is the new dividend. The roughly 2% in cash distributions available annually is running at nearly double the S&amp;P 500 rate of 1.2%.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f9127fe63e6c7e90091c969f6dcc4384\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"541\"/>YCharts - Alibaba vs. Online Retailers &amp; Peers, Trailing Dividend Yield, 1 Year<h2 id=\"id_2699449060\">Final Thoughts</h2>Do I consider Alibaba a stock to avoid? Not really. If you can purchase a stake on weakness, perhaps back to $90 or below, this security is a smart way to diversify your wealth away from U.S. markets. It&#39;s focus on sales in mainland China, Hong Kong, and other parts of Asia is worthy of your attention. If the Chinese economy can rebound from feeble 2024 economic growth during 2025, shareholders should earn a steady return, with a 2% dividend yield and share buybacks supporting you.What are the risks? The overriding risk revolves around Chinese government decision-making, including regulations on capital outflows to the rest of the world, alongside questionable signals about attracting/keeping foreign manufacturers (many are moving operations to nearby Asian nations).You could also wake up one morning and find it difficult to actually sell your shares on the American market as a delisting action/reaction to military escalations over Taiwan. Fortunately, shares are listed in Hong Kong, which may provide an option for trading if you can switch your share ownership to a brokerage outside of the U.S.Otherwise, changing economic fortunes in Asia (growth/recession) will drive the Alibaba quote, sitting at a fair valuation setup today. For sure, with a P/E under 12x and price to sales hovering around 2x projections for the current fiscal year (ending March 2025), investors do retain some headline value holding ADR shares around $100.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fd9e993ce1c171173f194e35d2d57c96\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"237\"/>Seeking Alpha Table - Alibaba, Analyst Estimates for 2024-26, Made September 26th, 2024My summary view is a period of retracement and digestion back to the $90s seems likely for months. After that is finished, a resumption of nice gains could reappear in 2025. For the time being I am downgrading Alibaba to Hold/Neutral, for a 12-month outlook. There is still no guarantee a global recession can be avoided over the next year. If we do experience one, BABA may still be trading under $100 next summer. At this point, if you own a position, selling covered calls may prove an excellent strategy to capture some income (and/or hedge the latest sharp gain) while we wait.</body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Breather (Rating Downgrade)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Breather (Rating Downgrade)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-29 14:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4723951-alibaba-breather-rating-downgrade>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nAlibaba is up +60% from my January bottom call, on rising optimism about China's economy for 2025.However, the stock quote is getting extremely overbought, and could witness 2-3 months of retracement ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4723951-alibaba-breather-rating-downgrade\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4723951-alibaba-breather-rating-downgrade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2470410060","content_text":"Alibaba is up +60% from my January bottom call, on rising optimism about China's economy for 2025.However, the stock quote is getting extremely overbought, and could witness 2-3 months of retracement action, before another push higher appears.I am reducing my 12-month outlook to Hold/Neutral, with an expected trading range of $85 to $120 going forward.OJO Images/OJO Images via Getty ImagesWith Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (NYSE:BABA) announcing some cutting-edge open AI tools last week, followed by recently announced People's Bank of China credit easing (the largest since the 2020 pandemic) alongside promises for stimulus efforts yesterday (September 26th, 2024) by China's Politburo, short covering and investor interest in this leading Asian powerhouse have rushed forward. The net result has been a spike in Alibaba's share quote, with the ADR now above US$100 per share.For regular readers, I reversed my long-held rating of the company from a neutral to bearish stance into a Buy view for the first time ever in January of this year, days from its 52-week low trade. Shareholders have not been disappointed for performance since then. Over the past eight months, BABA, including dividends, has generated a total return of +60%, easily beating both the S&P 500 index and nearly every Big Tech name in America for investor performance.Seeking Alpha - Paul Franke, Alibaba Article, January 22nd, 2024The reasons for optimism included a new dividend payout with large ongoing share buybacks, an unusually strong Accumulation/Distribution Line, near universal pessimism on the stock for overbaked sentiment, an extremely low valuation vs. peer businesses around the world, and the decent odds China's economy would not implode.Yet, the easy money has already been made in BABA into late September. It is becoming quite clear the company has a brighter future than most retail investors and analysts imagined possible during early summer. From my perspective, the rational course of action is to expect a breather/rest period in upside price movement, perhaps even a flat line for investor gains over the next 6-12 months.As a consequence of less bullish momentum patterns, and a view selling this \"rip\" higher in price may prove the prudent course of action for short-term traders/investors, I am downgrading my official view of the stock from Buy to Hold. I am now forecasting a range for price trading between $85 and $120 into next summer.Underlying Momentum IndicatorsPerhaps the most critical short-term investment puzzle piece that has me backing away from Alibaba is the technical chart has becoming completely \"overbought\" on the latest rapid ascent in price.My overbought setup idea is drawn below. I have circled extremely stretched readings in several useful volatility and price change indicators, similar to today. The list of signal-callers includes the 14-day Average Directional Index, Bollinger Band Width (20,2) calculation, and 14-day Relative Strength Index. When they reach high levels in unison, the stock quote generally peaks for at least a month or two.StockCharts.com - Alibaba, 30 Months of Price & Volume Changes, Author Reference PointsIn addition, numerous general momentum indicators I track are not quite screaming Buy Me, like they were earlier in the year. The majority of indicators are higher than a few months ago, but not in the amazing fashion you would expect to match super-strong price action.In particular, the uniquely robust Accumulation/Distribution Line pattern between June 2023 and February 2024 (boxed in blue below) has faded. To confirm additional price gains are approaching, I would've liked the ADL, Negative Volume Index, and On Balance Volume readings to show up a little better.StockCharts.com - Alibaba, 18 Months of Price & Volume Changes, Author Reference PointsValuation NormalizingAlibaba has fallen from an overall \"B\" Quant Valuation Grade in January to a \"D\" currently on its September price spike. Given most individual components remain in the \"B\" to \"C\" range, I think an overall rating of \"C\" fits in line with my thinking.Seeking Alpha Table - Alibaba, Quant Valuation Grades, September 26th, 2024While its valuation does remain in the middle to cheaper end of the spectrum vs. peers and competitors (especially those operating inside China), the overall underlying nominal range is now the same as late 2022 and the first half of 2023. So, the level of undervaluation on metrics like enterprise value (including equity worth plus total debt minus cash) to EBITDA or sales is not a standout buy proposition for this Asian blue-chip name.YCharts - Alibaba vs. Online Retailers & Peers, EV to EBITDA, 3 YearsYCharts - Alibaba vs. Online Retailers & Peers, EV to Sales, 3 YearsAgain, one persuasive bullish argument to continue ownership is the new dividend. The roughly 2% in cash distributions available annually is running at nearly double the S&P 500 rate of 1.2%.YCharts - Alibaba vs. Online Retailers & Peers, Trailing Dividend Yield, 1 YearFinal ThoughtsDo I consider Alibaba a stock to avoid? Not really. If you can purchase a stake on weakness, perhaps back to $90 or below, this security is a smart way to diversify your wealth away from U.S. markets. It's focus on sales in mainland China, Hong Kong, and other parts of Asia is worthy of your attention. If the Chinese economy can rebound from feeble 2024 economic growth during 2025, shareholders should earn a steady return, with a 2% dividend yield and share buybacks supporting you.What are the risks? The overriding risk revolves around Chinese government decision-making, including regulations on capital outflows to the rest of the world, alongside questionable signals about attracting/keeping foreign manufacturers (many are moving operations to nearby Asian nations).You could also wake up one morning and find it difficult to actually sell your shares on the American market as a delisting action/reaction to military escalations over Taiwan. Fortunately, shares are listed in Hong Kong, which may provide an option for trading if you can switch your share ownership to a brokerage outside of the U.S.Otherwise, changing economic fortunes in Asia (growth/recession) will drive the Alibaba quote, sitting at a fair valuation setup today. For sure, with a P/E under 12x and price to sales hovering around 2x projections for the current fiscal year (ending March 2025), investors do retain some headline value holding ADR shares around $100.Seeking Alpha Table - Alibaba, Analyst Estimates for 2024-26, Made September 26th, 2024My summary view is a period of retracement and digestion back to the $90s seems likely for months. After that is finished, a resumption of nice gains could reappear in 2025. For the time being I am downgrading Alibaba to Hold/Neutral, for a 12-month outlook. There is still no guarantee a global recession can be avoided over the next year. If we do experience one, BABA may still be trading under $100 next summer. At this point, if you own a position, selling covered calls may prove an excellent strategy to capture some income (and/or hedge the latest sharp gain) while we wait.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":354823909433504,"gmtCreate":1727636508747,"gmtModify":1727659580888,"authorId":4141429963588842,"author":{"id":4141429963588842,"idStr":"4141429963588842","authorId":4141429963588842,"name":"TigerGPT","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5b82af1deb17dfa8f94b4741b9ea2738","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":354824264225152,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Here are some news articles related to the recent developments in China's mortgage rates and home purchase restrictions:<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2471079857\">China to Allow Home Buyers to Refinance Mortgages in Latest Easing Move</a> - China has announced that it will allow home buyers to refinance their mortgages, enabling the policies aimed at addressing the property-sector slowdown to have a greater impact on the market.&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/china-tells-banks-start-cutting-rates-existing-mortgages-2024-09-29/\">China to cut existing mortgage rates by end-Oct, cities ease home purchase restrictions</a> - Banks in China will reduce rates by approximately 50 basis points on existing mortgage loans, and several major cities, including Shenzhen and Guangzhou, have eased their home purchase restrictions. These measures aim to stimulate the weak property market and boost consumption.&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-cut-existing-mortgage-rates-154008910.html\">China tells banks to start cutting rates on existing mortgages</a> - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has instructed commercial banks to lower interest rates on all existing housing loans by no less than 30 basis points below the PBOC's Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by the end of October. This move is intended to alleviate the mortgage burden on households affected by the slowing economy.&nbsp;&nbsp;Please note that the news articles provided are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. It is important to conduct thorough research and consider various factors before making any investment decisions.If you would like more specific information or analysis on a particular stock or investment opportunity, please let me know.Risk Disclaimer: The information provided is for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing in financial markets involves risks, and you should carefully consider your investment objectives and risk tolerance before participating in the market.","text":"Here are some news articles related to the recent developments in China's mortgage rates and home purchase restrictions:<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2471079857\">China to Allow Home Buyers to Refinance Mortgages in Latest Easing Move</a> - China has announced that it will allow home buyers to refinance their mortgages, enabling the policies aimed at addressing the property-sector slowdown to have a greater impact on the market.&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/china-tells-banks-start-cutting-rates-existing-mortgages-2024-09-29/\">China to cut existing mortgage rates by end-Oct, cities ease home purchase restrictions</a> - Banks in China will reduce rates by approximately 50 basis points on existing mortgage loans, and several major cities, including Shenzhen and Guangzhou, have eased their home purchase restrictions. These measures aim to stimulate the weak property market and boost consumption.&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-cut-existing-mortgage-rates-154008910.html\">China tells banks to start cutting rates on existing mortgages</a> - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has instructed commercial banks to lower interest rates on all existing housing loans by no less than 30 basis points below the PBOC's Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by the end of October. This move is intended to alleviate the mortgage burden on households affected by the slowing economy.&nbsp;&nbsp;Please note that the news articles provided are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. It is important to conduct thorough research and consider various factors before making any investment decisions.If you would like more specific information or analysis on a particular stock or investment opportunity, please let me know.Risk Disclaimer: The information provided is for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing in financial markets involves risks, and you should carefully consider your investment objectives and risk tolerance before participating in the market.","html":"Here are some news articles related to the recent developments in China's mortgage rates and home purchase restrictions:<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2471079857\">China to Allow Home Buyers to Refinance Mortgages in Latest Easing Move</a> - China has announced that it will allow home buyers to refinance their mortgages, enabling the policies aimed at addressing the property-sector slowdown to have a greater impact on the market.&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/china-tells-banks-start-cutting-rates-existing-mortgages-2024-09-29/\">China to cut existing mortgage rates by end-Oct, cities ease home purchase restrictions</a> - Banks in China will reduce rates by approximately 50 basis points on existing mortgage loans, and several major cities, including Shenzhen and Guangzhou, have eased their home purchase restrictions. These measures aim to stimulate the weak property market and boost consumption.&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-cut-existing-mortgage-rates-154008910.html\">China tells banks to start cutting rates on existing mortgages</a> - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has instructed commercial banks to lower interest rates on all existing housing loans by no less than 30 basis points below the PBOC's Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by the end of October. This move is intended to alleviate the mortgage burden on households affected by the slowing economy.&nbsp;&nbsp;Please note that the news articles provided are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. It is important to conduct thorough research and consider various factors before making any investment decisions.If you would like more specific information or analysis on a particular stock or investment opportunity, please let me know.Risk Disclaimer: The information provided is for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing in financial markets involves risks, and you should carefully consider your investment objectives and risk tolerance before participating in the market."}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":354757032337432,"gmtCreate":1727620076569,"gmtModify":1727620080459,"author":{"id":"3567242381966976","authorId":"3567242381966976","name":"Danielng","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5cd5b4aefd2b0994474d489d4d1c2904","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5ceab71416b120bab4604c0754b52a","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3567242381966976","authorIdStr":"3567242381966976"},"htmlText":"Dumb","listText":"Dumb","text":"Dumb","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/354757032337432","repostId":2470410060,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2470410060","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1727589749,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2470410060?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-29 14:02","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Breather (Rating Downgrade)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2470410060","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is up +60% from my January bottom call, on rising optimism about China's economy for 2025.However, the stock quote is getting extremely overbought, and could witness 2-3 months of retracement ","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li>Alibaba is up +60% from my January bottom call, on rising optimism about China&#39;s economy for 2025.</li><li>However, the stock quote is getting extremely overbought, and could witness 2-3 months of retracement action, before another push higher appears.</li><li>I am reducing my 12-month outlook to Hold/Neutral, with an expected trading range of $85 to $120 going forward.</li></ul><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8fc71f2c8a6c227151324907cbe1f425\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"503\"/>OJO Images/OJO Images via Getty ImagesWith Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (NYSE:BABA) announcing some cutting-edge open AI tools last week, followed by recently announced People&#39;s Bank of China credit easing (the largest since the 2020 pandemic) alongside promises for stimulus efforts yesterday (September 26th, 2024) by China&#39;s Politburo, short covering and investor interest in this leading Asian powerhouse have rushed forward. The net result has been a spike in Alibaba&#39;s share quote, with the ADR now above US$100 per share.For regular readers, I reversed my long-held rating of the company from a neutral to bearish stance into a Buy view for the first time ever in January of this year, days from its 52-week low trade. Shareholders have not been disappointed for performance since then. Over the past eight months, BABA, including dividends, has generated a total return of +60%, easily beating both the S&amp;P 500 index and nearly every Big Tech name in America for investor performance.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/09f1d506cca6bbe35b681e6e8d6461ea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"333\"/>Seeking Alpha - Paul Franke, Alibaba Article, January 22nd, 2024The reasons for optimism included a new dividend payout with large ongoing share buybacks, an unusually strong Accumulation/Distribution Line, near universal pessimism on the stock for overbaked sentiment, an extremely low valuation vs. peer businesses around the world, and the decent odds China&#39;s economy would not implode.Yet, the easy money has already been made in BABA into late September. It is becoming quite clear the company has a brighter future than most retail investors and analysts imagined possible during early summer. From my perspective, the rational course of action is to expect a breather/rest period in upside price movement, perhaps even a flat line for investor gains over the next 6-12 months.As a consequence of less bullish momentum patterns, and a view selling this &#34;rip&#34; higher in price may prove the prudent course of action for short-term traders/investors, I am downgrading my official view of the stock from Buy to Hold. I am now forecasting a range for price trading between $85 and $120 into next summer.<h2 id=\"id_2578874882\">Underlying Momentum Indicators</h2>Perhaps the most critical short-term investment puzzle piece that has me backing away from Alibaba is the technical chart has becoming completely &#34;overbought&#34; on the latest rapid ascent in price.My overbought setup idea is drawn below. I have circled extremely stretched readings in several useful volatility and price change indicators, similar to today. The list of signal-callers includes the 14-day Average Directional Index, Bollinger Band Width (20,2) calculation, and 14-day Relative Strength Index. When they reach high levels in unison, the stock quote generally peaks for at least a month or two.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f911359a685deca1879952bb34af4edc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"477\"/>StockCharts.com - Alibaba, 30 Months of Price &amp; Volume Changes, Author Reference PointsIn addition, numerous general momentum indicators I track are not quite screaming Buy Me, like they were earlier in the year. The majority of indicators are higher than a few months ago, but not in the amazing fashion you would expect to match super-strong price action.In particular, the uniquely robust Accumulation/Distribution Line pattern between June 2023 and February 2024 (boxed in blue below) has faded. To confirm additional price gains are approaching, I would&#39;ve liked the ADL, Negative Volume Index, and On Balance Volume readings to show up a little better.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/447fb49afb61718738a7318b0b06b23c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"477\"/>StockCharts.com - Alibaba, 18 Months of Price &amp; Volume Changes, Author Reference Points<h2 id=\"id_1268104433\">Valuation Normalizing</h2>Alibaba has fallen from an overall &#34;B&#34; Quant Valuation Grade in January to a &#34;D&#34; currently on its September price spike. Given most individual components remain in the &#34;B&#34; to &#34;C&#34; range, I think an overall rating of &#34;C&#34; fits in line with my thinking.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fd9d5e72d18aa9341b5afdfd82c1f767\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"669\"/>Seeking Alpha Table - Alibaba, Quant Valuation Grades, September 26th, 2024While its valuation does remain in the middle to cheaper end of the spectrum vs. peers and competitors (especially those operating inside China), the overall underlying nominal range is now the same as late 2022 and the first half of 2023. So, the level of undervaluation on metrics like enterprise value (including equity worth plus total debt minus cash) to EBITDA or sales is not a standout buy proposition for this Asian blue-chip name.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2895f8e63e61db6159fef8185a8388d4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"524\"/>YCharts - Alibaba vs. Online Retailers &amp; Peers, EV to EBITDA, 3 Years<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/87c78b7cd740a45680f5ecf0e009910c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"524\"/>YCharts - Alibaba vs. Online Retailers &amp; Peers, EV to Sales, 3 YearsAgain, one persuasive bullish argument to continue ownership is the new dividend. The roughly 2% in cash distributions available annually is running at nearly double the S&amp;P 500 rate of 1.2%.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f9127fe63e6c7e90091c969f6dcc4384\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"541\"/>YCharts - Alibaba vs. Online Retailers &amp; Peers, Trailing Dividend Yield, 1 Year<h2 id=\"id_2699449060\">Final Thoughts</h2>Do I consider Alibaba a stock to avoid? Not really. If you can purchase a stake on weakness, perhaps back to $90 or below, this security is a smart way to diversify your wealth away from U.S. markets. It&#39;s focus on sales in mainland China, Hong Kong, and other parts of Asia is worthy of your attention. If the Chinese economy can rebound from feeble 2024 economic growth during 2025, shareholders should earn a steady return, with a 2% dividend yield and share buybacks supporting you.What are the risks? The overriding risk revolves around Chinese government decision-making, including regulations on capital outflows to the rest of the world, alongside questionable signals about attracting/keeping foreign manufacturers (many are moving operations to nearby Asian nations).You could also wake up one morning and find it difficult to actually sell your shares on the American market as a delisting action/reaction to military escalations over Taiwan. Fortunately, shares are listed in Hong Kong, which may provide an option for trading if you can switch your share ownership to a brokerage outside of the U.S.Otherwise, changing economic fortunes in Asia (growth/recession) will drive the Alibaba quote, sitting at a fair valuation setup today. For sure, with a P/E under 12x and price to sales hovering around 2x projections for the current fiscal year (ending March 2025), investors do retain some headline value holding ADR shares around $100.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fd9e993ce1c171173f194e35d2d57c96\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"237\"/>Seeking Alpha Table - Alibaba, Analyst Estimates for 2024-26, Made September 26th, 2024My summary view is a period of retracement and digestion back to the $90s seems likely for months. After that is finished, a resumption of nice gains could reappear in 2025. For the time being I am downgrading Alibaba to Hold/Neutral, for a 12-month outlook. There is still no guarantee a global recession can be avoided over the next year. If we do experience one, BABA may still be trading under $100 next summer. At this point, if you own a position, selling covered calls may prove an excellent strategy to capture some income (and/or hedge the latest sharp gain) while we wait.</body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Breather (Rating Downgrade)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Breather (Rating Downgrade)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-29 14:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4723951-alibaba-breather-rating-downgrade>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nAlibaba is up +60% from my January bottom call, on rising optimism about China's economy for 2025.However, the stock quote is getting extremely overbought, and could witness 2-3 months of retracement ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4723951-alibaba-breather-rating-downgrade\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4723951-alibaba-breather-rating-downgrade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2470410060","content_text":"Alibaba is up +60% from my January bottom call, on rising optimism about China's economy for 2025.However, the stock quote is getting extremely overbought, and could witness 2-3 months of retracement action, before another push higher appears.I am reducing my 12-month outlook to Hold/Neutral, with an expected trading range of $85 to $120 going forward.OJO Images/OJO Images via Getty ImagesWith Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (NYSE:BABA) announcing some cutting-edge open AI tools last week, followed by recently announced People's Bank of China credit easing (the largest since the 2020 pandemic) alongside promises for stimulus efforts yesterday (September 26th, 2024) by China's Politburo, short covering and investor interest in this leading Asian powerhouse have rushed forward. The net result has been a spike in Alibaba's share quote, with the ADR now above US$100 per share.For regular readers, I reversed my long-held rating of the company from a neutral to bearish stance into a Buy view for the first time ever in January of this year, days from its 52-week low trade. Shareholders have not been disappointed for performance since then. Over the past eight months, BABA, including dividends, has generated a total return of +60%, easily beating both the S&P 500 index and nearly every Big Tech name in America for investor performance.Seeking Alpha - Paul Franke, Alibaba Article, January 22nd, 2024The reasons for optimism included a new dividend payout with large ongoing share buybacks, an unusually strong Accumulation/Distribution Line, near universal pessimism on the stock for overbaked sentiment, an extremely low valuation vs. peer businesses around the world, and the decent odds China's economy would not implode.Yet, the easy money has already been made in BABA into late September. It is becoming quite clear the company has a brighter future than most retail investors and analysts imagined possible during early summer. From my perspective, the rational course of action is to expect a breather/rest period in upside price movement, perhaps even a flat line for investor gains over the next 6-12 months.As a consequence of less bullish momentum patterns, and a view selling this \"rip\" higher in price may prove the prudent course of action for short-term traders/investors, I am downgrading my official view of the stock from Buy to Hold. I am now forecasting a range for price trading between $85 and $120 into next summer.Underlying Momentum IndicatorsPerhaps the most critical short-term investment puzzle piece that has me backing away from Alibaba is the technical chart has becoming completely \"overbought\" on the latest rapid ascent in price.My overbought setup idea is drawn below. I have circled extremely stretched readings in several useful volatility and price change indicators, similar to today. The list of signal-callers includes the 14-day Average Directional Index, Bollinger Band Width (20,2) calculation, and 14-day Relative Strength Index. When they reach high levels in unison, the stock quote generally peaks for at least a month or two.StockCharts.com - Alibaba, 30 Months of Price & Volume Changes, Author Reference PointsIn addition, numerous general momentum indicators I track are not quite screaming Buy Me, like they were earlier in the year. The majority of indicators are higher than a few months ago, but not in the amazing fashion you would expect to match super-strong price action.In particular, the uniquely robust Accumulation/Distribution Line pattern between June 2023 and February 2024 (boxed in blue below) has faded. To confirm additional price gains are approaching, I would've liked the ADL, Negative Volume Index, and On Balance Volume readings to show up a little better.StockCharts.com - Alibaba, 18 Months of Price & Volume Changes, Author Reference PointsValuation NormalizingAlibaba has fallen from an overall \"B\" Quant Valuation Grade in January to a \"D\" currently on its September price spike. Given most individual components remain in the \"B\" to \"C\" range, I think an overall rating of \"C\" fits in line with my thinking.Seeking Alpha Table - Alibaba, Quant Valuation Grades, September 26th, 2024While its valuation does remain in the middle to cheaper end of the spectrum vs. peers and competitors (especially those operating inside China), the overall underlying nominal range is now the same as late 2022 and the first half of 2023. So, the level of undervaluation on metrics like enterprise value (including equity worth plus total debt minus cash) to EBITDA or sales is not a standout buy proposition for this Asian blue-chip name.YCharts - Alibaba vs. Online Retailers & Peers, EV to EBITDA, 3 YearsYCharts - Alibaba vs. Online Retailers & Peers, EV to Sales, 3 YearsAgain, one persuasive bullish argument to continue ownership is the new dividend. The roughly 2% in cash distributions available annually is running at nearly double the S&P 500 rate of 1.2%.YCharts - Alibaba vs. Online Retailers & Peers, Trailing Dividend Yield, 1 YearFinal ThoughtsDo I consider Alibaba a stock to avoid? Not really. If you can purchase a stake on weakness, perhaps back to $90 or below, this security is a smart way to diversify your wealth away from U.S. markets. It's focus on sales in mainland China, Hong Kong, and other parts of Asia is worthy of your attention. If the Chinese economy can rebound from feeble 2024 economic growth during 2025, shareholders should earn a steady return, with a 2% dividend yield and share buybacks supporting you.What are the risks? The overriding risk revolves around Chinese government decision-making, including regulations on capital outflows to the rest of the world, alongside questionable signals about attracting/keeping foreign manufacturers (many are moving operations to nearby Asian nations).You could also wake up one morning and find it difficult to actually sell your shares on the American market as a delisting action/reaction to military escalations over Taiwan. Fortunately, shares are listed in Hong Kong, which may provide an option for trading if you can switch your share ownership to a brokerage outside of the U.S.Otherwise, changing economic fortunes in Asia (growth/recession) will drive the Alibaba quote, sitting at a fair valuation setup today. For sure, with a P/E under 12x and price to sales hovering around 2x projections for the current fiscal year (ending March 2025), investors do retain some headline value holding ADR shares around $100.Seeking Alpha Table - Alibaba, Analyst Estimates for 2024-26, Made September 26th, 2024My summary view is a period of retracement and digestion back to the $90s seems likely for months. After that is finished, a resumption of nice gains could reappear in 2025. For the time being I am downgrading Alibaba to Hold/Neutral, for a 12-month outlook. There is still no guarantee a global recession can be avoided over the next year. If we do experience one, BABA may still be trading under $100 next summer. At this point, if you own a position, selling covered calls may prove an excellent strategy to capture some income (and/or hedge the latest sharp gain) while we wait.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":354636399915264,"gmtCreate":1727590627071,"gmtModify":1727591023734,"author":{"id":"3567393794802705","authorId":"3567393794802705","name":"Gzgz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3567393794802705","authorIdStr":"3567393794802705"},"htmlText":"Definitely SA sold some calls","listText":"Definitely SA sold some calls","text":"Definitely SA sold some calls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/354636399915264","repostId":2470410060,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2470410060","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1727589749,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2470410060?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-29 14:02","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Breather (Rating Downgrade)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2470410060","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is up +60% from my January bottom call, on rising optimism about China's economy for 2025.However, the stock quote is getting extremely overbought, and could witness 2-3 months of retracement ","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li>Alibaba is up +60% from my January bottom call, on rising optimism about China&#39;s economy for 2025.</li><li>However, the stock quote is getting extremely overbought, and could witness 2-3 months of retracement action, before another push higher appears.</li><li>I am reducing my 12-month outlook to Hold/Neutral, with an expected trading range of $85 to $120 going forward.</li></ul><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8fc71f2c8a6c227151324907cbe1f425\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"503\"/>OJO Images/OJO Images via Getty ImagesWith Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (NYSE:BABA) announcing some cutting-edge open AI tools last week, followed by recently announced People&#39;s Bank of China credit easing (the largest since the 2020 pandemic) alongside promises for stimulus efforts yesterday (September 26th, 2024) by China&#39;s Politburo, short covering and investor interest in this leading Asian powerhouse have rushed forward. The net result has been a spike in Alibaba&#39;s share quote, with the ADR now above US$100 per share.For regular readers, I reversed my long-held rating of the company from a neutral to bearish stance into a Buy view for the first time ever in January of this year, days from its 52-week low trade. Shareholders have not been disappointed for performance since then. Over the past eight months, BABA, including dividends, has generated a total return of +60%, easily beating both the S&amp;P 500 index and nearly every Big Tech name in America for investor performance.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/09f1d506cca6bbe35b681e6e8d6461ea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"333\"/>Seeking Alpha - Paul Franke, Alibaba Article, January 22nd, 2024The reasons for optimism included a new dividend payout with large ongoing share buybacks, an unusually strong Accumulation/Distribution Line, near universal pessimism on the stock for overbaked sentiment, an extremely low valuation vs. peer businesses around the world, and the decent odds China&#39;s economy would not implode.Yet, the easy money has already been made in BABA into late September. It is becoming quite clear the company has a brighter future than most retail investors and analysts imagined possible during early summer. From my perspective, the rational course of action is to expect a breather/rest period in upside price movement, perhaps even a flat line for investor gains over the next 6-12 months.As a consequence of less bullish momentum patterns, and a view selling this &#34;rip&#34; higher in price may prove the prudent course of action for short-term traders/investors, I am downgrading my official view of the stock from Buy to Hold. I am now forecasting a range for price trading between $85 and $120 into next summer.<h2 id=\"id_2578874882\">Underlying Momentum Indicators</h2>Perhaps the most critical short-term investment puzzle piece that has me backing away from Alibaba is the technical chart has becoming completely &#34;overbought&#34; on the latest rapid ascent in price.My overbought setup idea is drawn below. I have circled extremely stretched readings in several useful volatility and price change indicators, similar to today. The list of signal-callers includes the 14-day Average Directional Index, Bollinger Band Width (20,2) calculation, and 14-day Relative Strength Index. When they reach high levels in unison, the stock quote generally peaks for at least a month or two.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f911359a685deca1879952bb34af4edc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"477\"/>StockCharts.com - Alibaba, 30 Months of Price &amp; Volume Changes, Author Reference PointsIn addition, numerous general momentum indicators I track are not quite screaming Buy Me, like they were earlier in the year. The majority of indicators are higher than a few months ago, but not in the amazing fashion you would expect to match super-strong price action.In particular, the uniquely robust Accumulation/Distribution Line pattern between June 2023 and February 2024 (boxed in blue below) has faded. To confirm additional price gains are approaching, I would&#39;ve liked the ADL, Negative Volume Index, and On Balance Volume readings to show up a little better.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/447fb49afb61718738a7318b0b06b23c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"477\"/>StockCharts.com - Alibaba, 18 Months of Price &amp; Volume Changes, Author Reference Points<h2 id=\"id_1268104433\">Valuation Normalizing</h2>Alibaba has fallen from an overall &#34;B&#34; Quant Valuation Grade in January to a &#34;D&#34; currently on its September price spike. Given most individual components remain in the &#34;B&#34; to &#34;C&#34; range, I think an overall rating of &#34;C&#34; fits in line with my thinking.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fd9d5e72d18aa9341b5afdfd82c1f767\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"669\"/>Seeking Alpha Table - Alibaba, Quant Valuation Grades, September 26th, 2024While its valuation does remain in the middle to cheaper end of the spectrum vs. peers and competitors (especially those operating inside China), the overall underlying nominal range is now the same as late 2022 and the first half of 2023. So, the level of undervaluation on metrics like enterprise value (including equity worth plus total debt minus cash) to EBITDA or sales is not a standout buy proposition for this Asian blue-chip name.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2895f8e63e61db6159fef8185a8388d4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"524\"/>YCharts - Alibaba vs. Online Retailers &amp; Peers, EV to EBITDA, 3 Years<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/87c78b7cd740a45680f5ecf0e009910c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"524\"/>YCharts - Alibaba vs. Online Retailers &amp; Peers, EV to Sales, 3 YearsAgain, one persuasive bullish argument to continue ownership is the new dividend. The roughly 2% in cash distributions available annually is running at nearly double the S&amp;P 500 rate of 1.2%.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f9127fe63e6c7e90091c969f6dcc4384\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"541\"/>YCharts - Alibaba vs. Online Retailers &amp; Peers, Trailing Dividend Yield, 1 Year<h2 id=\"id_2699449060\">Final Thoughts</h2>Do I consider Alibaba a stock to avoid? Not really. If you can purchase a stake on weakness, perhaps back to $90 or below, this security is a smart way to diversify your wealth away from U.S. markets. It&#39;s focus on sales in mainland China, Hong Kong, and other parts of Asia is worthy of your attention. If the Chinese economy can rebound from feeble 2024 economic growth during 2025, shareholders should earn a steady return, with a 2% dividend yield and share buybacks supporting you.What are the risks? The overriding risk revolves around Chinese government decision-making, including regulations on capital outflows to the rest of the world, alongside questionable signals about attracting/keeping foreign manufacturers (many are moving operations to nearby Asian nations).You could also wake up one morning and find it difficult to actually sell your shares on the American market as a delisting action/reaction to military escalations over Taiwan. Fortunately, shares are listed in Hong Kong, which may provide an option for trading if you can switch your share ownership to a brokerage outside of the U.S.Otherwise, changing economic fortunes in Asia (growth/recession) will drive the Alibaba quote, sitting at a fair valuation setup today. For sure, with a P/E under 12x and price to sales hovering around 2x projections for the current fiscal year (ending March 2025), investors do retain some headline value holding ADR shares around $100.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fd9e993ce1c171173f194e35d2d57c96\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"237\"/>Seeking Alpha Table - Alibaba, Analyst Estimates for 2024-26, Made September 26th, 2024My summary view is a period of retracement and digestion back to the $90s seems likely for months. After that is finished, a resumption of nice gains could reappear in 2025. For the time being I am downgrading Alibaba to Hold/Neutral, for a 12-month outlook. There is still no guarantee a global recession can be avoided over the next year. If we do experience one, BABA may still be trading under $100 next summer. At this point, if you own a position, selling covered calls may prove an excellent strategy to capture some income (and/or hedge the latest sharp gain) while we wait.</body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Breather (Rating Downgrade)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Breather (Rating Downgrade)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-29 14:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4723951-alibaba-breather-rating-downgrade>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nAlibaba is up +60% from my January bottom call, on rising optimism about China's economy for 2025.However, the stock quote is getting extremely overbought, and could witness 2-3 months of retracement ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4723951-alibaba-breather-rating-downgrade\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4723951-alibaba-breather-rating-downgrade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2470410060","content_text":"Alibaba is up +60% from my January bottom call, on rising optimism about China's economy for 2025.However, the stock quote is getting extremely overbought, and could witness 2-3 months of retracement action, before another push higher appears.I am reducing my 12-month outlook to Hold/Neutral, with an expected trading range of $85 to $120 going forward.OJO Images/OJO Images via Getty ImagesWith Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (NYSE:BABA) announcing some cutting-edge open AI tools last week, followed by recently announced People's Bank of China credit easing (the largest since the 2020 pandemic) alongside promises for stimulus efforts yesterday (September 26th, 2024) by China's Politburo, short covering and investor interest in this leading Asian powerhouse have rushed forward. The net result has been a spike in Alibaba's share quote, with the ADR now above US$100 per share.For regular readers, I reversed my long-held rating of the company from a neutral to bearish stance into a Buy view for the first time ever in January of this year, days from its 52-week low trade. Shareholders have not been disappointed for performance since then. Over the past eight months, BABA, including dividends, has generated a total return of +60%, easily beating both the S&P 500 index and nearly every Big Tech name in America for investor performance.Seeking Alpha - Paul Franke, Alibaba Article, January 22nd, 2024The reasons for optimism included a new dividend payout with large ongoing share buybacks, an unusually strong Accumulation/Distribution Line, near universal pessimism on the stock for overbaked sentiment, an extremely low valuation vs. peer businesses around the world, and the decent odds China's economy would not implode.Yet, the easy money has already been made in BABA into late September. It is becoming quite clear the company has a brighter future than most retail investors and analysts imagined possible during early summer. From my perspective, the rational course of action is to expect a breather/rest period in upside price movement, perhaps even a flat line for investor gains over the next 6-12 months.As a consequence of less bullish momentum patterns, and a view selling this \"rip\" higher in price may prove the prudent course of action for short-term traders/investors, I am downgrading my official view of the stock from Buy to Hold. I am now forecasting a range for price trading between $85 and $120 into next summer.Underlying Momentum IndicatorsPerhaps the most critical short-term investment puzzle piece that has me backing away from Alibaba is the technical chart has becoming completely \"overbought\" on the latest rapid ascent in price.My overbought setup idea is drawn below. I have circled extremely stretched readings in several useful volatility and price change indicators, similar to today. The list of signal-callers includes the 14-day Average Directional Index, Bollinger Band Width (20,2) calculation, and 14-day Relative Strength Index. When they reach high levels in unison, the stock quote generally peaks for at least a month or two.StockCharts.com - Alibaba, 30 Months of Price & Volume Changes, Author Reference PointsIn addition, numerous general momentum indicators I track are not quite screaming Buy Me, like they were earlier in the year. The majority of indicators are higher than a few months ago, but not in the amazing fashion you would expect to match super-strong price action.In particular, the uniquely robust Accumulation/Distribution Line pattern between June 2023 and February 2024 (boxed in blue below) has faded. To confirm additional price gains are approaching, I would've liked the ADL, Negative Volume Index, and On Balance Volume readings to show up a little better.StockCharts.com - Alibaba, 18 Months of Price & Volume Changes, Author Reference PointsValuation NormalizingAlibaba has fallen from an overall \"B\" Quant Valuation Grade in January to a \"D\" currently on its September price spike. Given most individual components remain in the \"B\" to \"C\" range, I think an overall rating of \"C\" fits in line with my thinking.Seeking Alpha Table - Alibaba, Quant Valuation Grades, September 26th, 2024While its valuation does remain in the middle to cheaper end of the spectrum vs. peers and competitors (especially those operating inside China), the overall underlying nominal range is now the same as late 2022 and the first half of 2023. So, the level of undervaluation on metrics like enterprise value (including equity worth plus total debt minus cash) to EBITDA or sales is not a standout buy proposition for this Asian blue-chip name.YCharts - Alibaba vs. Online Retailers & Peers, EV to EBITDA, 3 YearsYCharts - Alibaba vs. Online Retailers & Peers, EV to Sales, 3 YearsAgain, one persuasive bullish argument to continue ownership is the new dividend. The roughly 2% in cash distributions available annually is running at nearly double the S&P 500 rate of 1.2%.YCharts - Alibaba vs. Online Retailers & Peers, Trailing Dividend Yield, 1 YearFinal ThoughtsDo I consider Alibaba a stock to avoid? Not really. If you can purchase a stake on weakness, perhaps back to $90 or below, this security is a smart way to diversify your wealth away from U.S. markets. It's focus on sales in mainland China, Hong Kong, and other parts of Asia is worthy of your attention. If the Chinese economy can rebound from feeble 2024 economic growth during 2025, shareholders should earn a steady return, with a 2% dividend yield and share buybacks supporting you.What are the risks? The overriding risk revolves around Chinese government decision-making, including regulations on capital outflows to the rest of the world, alongside questionable signals about attracting/keeping foreign manufacturers (many are moving operations to nearby Asian nations).You could also wake up one morning and find it difficult to actually sell your shares on the American market as a delisting action/reaction to military escalations over Taiwan. Fortunately, shares are listed in Hong Kong, which may provide an option for trading if you can switch your share ownership to a brokerage outside of the U.S.Otherwise, changing economic fortunes in Asia (growth/recession) will drive the Alibaba quote, sitting at a fair valuation setup today. For sure, with a P/E under 12x and price to sales hovering around 2x projections for the current fiscal year (ending March 2025), investors do retain some headline value holding ADR shares around $100.Seeking Alpha Table - Alibaba, Analyst Estimates for 2024-26, Made September 26th, 2024My summary view is a period of retracement and digestion back to the $90s seems likely for months. After that is finished, a resumption of nice gains could reappear in 2025. For the time being I am downgrading Alibaba to Hold/Neutral, for a 12-month outlook. There is still no guarantee a global recession can be avoided over the next year. If we do experience one, BABA may still be trading under $100 next summer. At this point, if you own a position, selling covered calls may prove an excellent strategy to capture some income (and/or hedge the latest sharp gain) while we wait.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":15,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":2,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}