Tesla: Don't Be Fooled By The Market

seekingalpha10-26

Tesla, Inc.'s 20% post-earnings surge has recovered most losses incurred after its underwhelming Robotaxi event.Tesla's solid Q3 earnings release supports the thesis that the worst is likely behind ...

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Imthiyas
·10-28
This writer is negative on Tesla, readers just scroll down the rubbish , and load up on Tesla.
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zelia
·10-26
Sour grapes are very sour. We know and.painful.....to swallow
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zelia
·10-26
Another writer who spread negative article ard. Likely the writer did not enjoy the wave....so now become a sour graoe....
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incurred after its underwhelming Robotaxi event.Tesla's solid Q3 earnings release supports the thesis that the worst is likely behind ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4729587-tesla-dont-be-fooled-by-the-market\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1861559042.SGD","symbol_name":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4729587-tesla-dont-be-fooled-by-the-market","article_id":"2478918073","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2478918073","pubTimestamp":1729923068,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Tesla, Inc.'s 20% post-earnings surge has recovered most losses incurred after its underwhelming Robotaxi event.Tesla's solid Q3 earnings release supports the thesis that the worst is likely behind 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likely behind the EV leader.However, the market isn't dumb, given Tesla's sky-high valuation amid EV growth challenges.Tesla's fast-growing energy storage business might not be sufficient to justify the optimism baked into its autonomous driving ambitions.I argue why betting against TSLA isn't wise. However, going long on the stock seems too aggressive at the current levels.Tesla: 20% Post-Earnings Surge Recovered Most Of Recent LossesTesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) investors cheered the EV leader's Q3 earnings release as TSLA surged more than 20% on October 24. As a result, it has recovered most of the losses since its relatively underwhelming Robotaxi Day in early October. The significant volatility in the stock has likely stunned inexperienced TSLA holders as the market reassesses the Elon Musk-led company's EV growth profile.Doubts about Tesla's launch of “more affordable” vehicles dominated the narrative at its Robotaxi event. Reports about human-controlled Optimus robots made the news in the financial media, as investors were concerned about the company's autonomous ambitions. Hence, questions from bearish investors about what has changed over the past two weeks that led to yesterday's surge are justified.Management remains optimistic about scaling Tesla's autonomous aspirations over the next two years. However, I assess that the de-rating that followed its Robotaxi event in early October suggests the market is increasingly focused on the company's near-term growth prospects. Therefore, Tesla's ability to deliver a growth inflection in its financial performance could indicate the worst is likely over.There were already green shoots of a recovery in early October when Tesla posted delivery growth in Q3, outperforming Wall Street's estimates. In my previous TSLA article, I urged investors to remain cautious, as Tesla could disappoint at its Robotaxi event. My thesis panned out as the market digested the overstated hype, although this week's spectacular post-earnings surge has reversed the initial decline.Tesla's Q3 Earnings Suggests The Worst Is Likely Behind UsTesla's performance in Q3 underscores its pre-eminent position as the world's leading EV maker. As seen above, it recorded a 7.8% YoY increase in revenue in Q3, corroborating the recovery momentum it posted in Q2. Tesla has continued to manage its pricing levers to improve its competitiveness. The intense competition in the EV industry has hampered the company's ability to drive a more robust topline growth profile. The high-interest rate environment has continued to affect affordability, although the headwinds have likely peaked. Despite that, Tesla's ability to navigate these challenges and achieve a revenue growth inflection is a testament to its market leadership, scale, branding, and customer confidence.Notably, Tesla notched solid results with its Cybertruck, becoming the “third best-selling EV in Q3 in the US.” Therefore, the market is likely increasingly confident in its growth prospects through 2025, corroborating the EV leader's market dominance.Tesla's Scale Could Lift Its Margins FurtherManagement indicates macroeconomic challenges in Q4 could hamper its robust automotive gross margin recovery. However, its ability to post a solid corporate gross margin of almost 20% demonstrates the sustainability of Tesla's scale.In addition, Elon Musk telegraphed his confidence in achieving 20% to 30% in vehicle growth rates next year, justifying the recent optimism. As a result, Tesla's increasing scale should position the EV leader well into potential delivery estimates of above 2M for 2025.Coupled with the continued growth in its energy generation and storage business, I assess that the market has turned more constructive with the recent proof points. As seen above, Tesla's energy business has continued to do well, posting a topline growth of more than 40% on a trailing twelve-month basis. Given its improved scale, its gross profitability has also been lifted markedly, reaching nearly 26% in Q3 (trailing twelve months basis).As a result, Tesla has demonstrated its ability to chart a significant growth vector through its energy business, even as its EV growth has decelerated. Although its energy business remains nascent (relative to its automotive business), it's expected to play an increasingly critical role moving ahead.Solar energy capacity has surged to new highs, gaining significant influence in the renewable energy industry. Hence, I assess that cautious or bearish investors (including myself) have likely understated Tesla's capabilities to expand its growth drivers, notwithstanding the slowdown in its core EV business.TSLA Stock: But, Hasn't The Market Priced Them In?Despite that, TSLA's “F” valuation grade corroborates my cautious thesis that the market has likely overstated its relatively tepid “C-” growth grade. In other words, it's increasingly challenging for TSLA investors to justify its growth premium based on its fast-growing energy storage business. Accordingly, it hasn't been able to mitigate the slowdown in its main EV business.Tesla has committed to driving near- and medium-term growth through its Robotaxi business and autonomous driving software. However, these optionalities are still mired in significant uncertainties. Although management telegraphed its confidence in the volume production for Cybercab in 2026, investors must be cautious in potentially overstating them.Regulatory hurdles, deployment challenges, and capacity constraints could hamper management's optimism. In addition, the actualization of Tesla's autonomous driving ambitions isn't expected to be close to fruition yet. Hence, there seems to be too much hype baked into TSLA's arguably unjustified valuation metrics at the current levels.Is TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?TSLA's forward adjusted EPS multiple of 105x is substantially above its consumer discretionary (XLY) sector median of 17x. It's also markedly above its automotive peers' median of 3.6x (according to S&P Cap IQ data). Furthermore, investors should consider the relative underperformance of its solar energy peers listed in the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN), as it fell to new recent lows in October 2024. Therefore, anticipating a significant valuation re-rating based on its core EV or solar energy business could be increasingly challenging unless Tesla makes a substantial breakthrough in actualizing its autonomous ambitions.Despite that, its price action highlights the robustness of its dip-buying sentiments. TSLA's “A” momentum grade has been upgraded from “D” over the past six months, corroborating the stock's markedly improved buying momentum. Therefore, bearish investors must be cautious about trying to bet against the market, as these bets could be eviscerated, given the potentially high volatility and robustness in TSLA's underlying momentum.TSLA's price action has inched closer to a critical resistance zone under the $270 level. That level has resisted buying advances since December 2023, which justifies increased caution. Therefore, I assess that the market seems to have baked in steep optimism on Tesla, Inc.'s ability to actualize and monetize its autonomous driving and Robotaxi ambitions over the coming years.Hence, I urge investors to remain cautious about the stock, as profit-taking could also set in as it inches closer to the $270 zone.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"analysis","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[{"id":364766764265472,"gmtCreate":1730064625070,"gmtModify":1730078773009,"author":{"id":"4105081372269870","authorId":"4105081372269870","name":"Imthiyas","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/713b089fffd0a4f627af530e8f4039ee","vip":1,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4105081372269870","idStr":"4105081372269870"},"htmlText":"This writer is negative on Tesla, readers just scroll down the rubbish , and load up on Tesla.","listText":"This writer is negative on Tesla, readers just scroll down the rubbish , and load up on Tesla.","text":"This writer is negative on Tesla, readers just scroll down the rubbish , and load up on Tesla.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364766764265472","repostId":2478918073,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2478918073","pubTimestamp":1729923068,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2478918073?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-26 14:11","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Don't Be Fooled By The Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2478918073","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Tesla, Inc.'s 20% post-earnings surge has recovered most losses incurred after its underwhelming Robotaxi event.Tesla's solid Q3 earnings release supports the thesis that the worst is likely behind th","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li><p>Tesla, Inc.&#39;s 20% post-earnings surge has recovered most losses incurred after its underwhelming Robotaxi event.</p></li><li><p>Tesla&#39;s solid Q3 earnings release supports the thesis that the worst is likely behind the EV leader.</p></li><li><p>However, the market isn&#39;t dumb, given Tesla&#39;s sky-high valuation amid EV growth challenges.</p></li><li><p>Tesla&#39;s fast-growing energy storage business might not be sufficient to justify the optimism baked into its autonomous driving ambitions.</p></li><li><p>I argue why betting against TSLA isn&#39;t wise. However, going long on the stock seems too aggressive at the current levels.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9fb069981b6649ef9bb9d10bf4d75d46\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span></span></p><p></p><h2>Tesla: 20% Post-Earnings Surge Recovered Most Of Recent Losses</h2><p><strong>Tesla, Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ:TSLA) investors cheered the EV leader&#39;s Q3 earnings release as TSLA surged more than 20% on October 24. As a result, it has recovered most of the losses since its relatively underwhelming Robotaxi Day in early October. The significant volatility in the stock has likely stunned inexperienced TSLA holders as the market reassesses the Elon Musk-led company&#39;s EV growth profile.</p><p>Doubts about Tesla&#39;s launch of “more affordable” vehicles dominated the narrative at its Robotaxi event. Reports about human-controlled Optimus robots made the news in the financial media, as investors were concerned about the company&#39;s autonomous ambitions. Hence, questions from bearish investors about what has changed over the past two weeks that led to yesterday&#39;s surge are justified.</p><p>Management remains optimistic about scaling Tesla&#39;s autonomous aspirations over the next two years. However, I assess that the de-rating that followed its Robotaxi event in early October suggests the market is increasingly focused on the company&#39;s near-term growth prospects. Therefore, Tesla&#39;s ability to deliver a growth inflection in its financial performance could indicate the worst is likely over.</p><p>There were already green shoots of a recovery in early October when Tesla posted delivery growth in Q3, outperforming Wall Street&#39;s estimates. In my previous TSLA article, I urged investors to remain cautious, as Tesla could disappoint at its Robotaxi event. My thesis panned out as the market digested the overstated hype, although this week&#39;s spectacular post-earnings surge has reversed the initial decline.</p><h2>Tesla&#39;s Q3 Earnings Suggests The Worst Is Likely Behind Us</h2><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/15e0d0b30d4122dc26b561f82ba77f81\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>Tesla&#39;s performance in Q3 underscores its pre-eminent position as the world&#39;s leading EV maker. As seen above, it recorded a 7.8% YoY increase in revenue in Q3, corroborating the recovery momentum it posted in Q2. Tesla has continued to manage its pricing levers to improve its competitiveness. The intense competition in the EV industry has hampered the company&#39;s ability to drive a more robust topline growth profile. The high-interest rate environment has continued to affect affordability, although the headwinds have likely peaked. Despite that, Tesla&#39;s ability to navigate these challenges and achieve a revenue growth inflection is a testament to its market leadership, scale, branding, and customer confidence.</p><p>Notably, Tesla notched solid results with its Cybertruck, becoming the “third best-selling EV in Q3 in the US.” Therefore, the market is likely increasingly confident in its growth prospects through 2025, corroborating the EV leader&#39;s market dominance.</p><h2>Tesla&#39;s Scale Could Lift Its Margins Further</h2><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f94bc2cda755ff8959ee09c686fdef06\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>Management indicates macroeconomic challenges in Q4 could hamper its robust automotive gross margin recovery. However, its ability to post a solid corporate gross margin of almost 20% demonstrates the sustainability of Tesla&#39;s scale.</p><p>In addition, Elon Musk telegraphed his confidence in achieving 20% to 30% in vehicle growth rates next year, justifying the recent optimism. As a result, Tesla&#39;s increasing scale should position the EV leader well into potential delivery estimates of above 2M for 2025.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4c78be624408fa981e86dbd2847d08c6\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"454\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>Coupled with the continued growth in its energy generation and storage business, I assess that the market has turned more constructive with the recent proof points. As seen above, Tesla&#39;s energy business has continued to do well, posting a topline growth of more than 40% on a trailing twelve-month basis. Given its improved scale, its gross profitability has also been lifted markedly, reaching nearly 26% in Q3 (trailing twelve months basis).</p><p>As a result, Tesla has demonstrated its ability to chart a significant growth vector through its energy business, even as its EV growth has decelerated. Although its energy business remains nascent (relative to its automotive business), it&#39;s expected to play an increasingly critical role moving ahead.</p><p>Solar energy capacity has surged to new highs, gaining significant influence in the renewable energy industry. Hence, I assess that cautious or bearish investors (including myself) have likely understated Tesla&#39;s capabilities to expand its growth drivers, notwithstanding the slowdown in its core EV business.</p><h2>TSLA Stock: But, Hasn&#39;t The Market Priced Them In?</h2><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/119454cad8eb328c901c728cd7c0ff71\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"318\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>Despite that, TSLA&#39;s “F” valuation grade corroborates my cautious thesis that the market has likely overstated its relatively tepid “C-” growth grade. In other words, it&#39;s increasingly challenging for TSLA investors to justify its growth premium based on its fast-growing energy storage business. Accordingly, it hasn&#39;t been able to mitigate the slowdown in its main EV business.</p><p>Tesla has committed to driving near- and medium-term growth through its Robotaxi business and autonomous driving software. However, these optionalities are still mired in significant uncertainties. Although management telegraphed its confidence in the volume production for Cybercab in 2026, investors must be cautious in potentially overstating them.</p><p>Regulatory hurdles, deployment challenges, and capacity constraints could hamper management&#39;s optimism. In addition, the actualization of Tesla&#39;s autonomous driving ambitions isn&#39;t expected to be close to fruition yet. Hence, there seems to be too much hype baked into TSLA&#39;s arguably unjustified valuation metrics at the current levels.</p><h2>Is TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</h2><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/521b6c84d7a5a04ecba3f472fc901cd5\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>TSLA&#39;s forward adjusted EPS multiple of 105x is substantially above its consumer discretionary (XLY) sector median of 17x. It&#39;s also markedly above its automotive peers&#39; median of 3.6x (according to S&amp;P Cap IQ data). Furthermore, investors should consider the relative underperformance of its solar energy peers listed in the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN), as it fell to new recent lows in October 2024. Therefore, anticipating a significant valuation re-rating based on its core EV or solar energy business could be increasingly challenging unless Tesla makes a substantial breakthrough in actualizing its autonomous ambitions.</p><p>Despite that, its price action highlights the robustness of its dip-buying sentiments. TSLA&#39;s “A” momentum grade has been upgraded from “D” over the past six months, corroborating the stock&#39;s markedly improved buying momentum. Therefore, bearish investors must be cautious about trying to bet against the market, as these bets could be eviscerated, given the potentially high volatility and robustness in TSLA&#39;s underlying momentum.</p><p>TSLA&#39;s price action has inched closer to a critical resistance zone under the $270 level. That level has resisted buying advances since December 2023, which justifies increased caution. Therefore, I assess that the market seems to have baked in steep optimism on Tesla, Inc.&#39;s ability to actualize and monetize its autonomous driving and Robotaxi ambitions over the coming years.</p><p>Hence, I urge investors to remain cautious about the stock, as profit-taking could also set in as it inches closer to the $270 zone.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Don't Be Fooled By The Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Don't Be Fooled By The Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-26 14:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4729587-tesla-dont-be-fooled-by-the-market><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla, Inc.'s 20% post-earnings surge has recovered most losses incurred after its underwhelming Robotaxi event.Tesla's solid Q3 earnings release supports the thesis that the worst is likely behind ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4729587-tesla-dont-be-fooled-by-the-market\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU2213496289.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0964807845.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME & GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","SG9999015952.SGD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (SGD) ACC","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","SG9999015945.SGD":"LionGlobal Disruptive Innovation Fund A SGD","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","SG9999015986.USD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1145028129.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AQ\" (USD) INC","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU2023250330.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU2602419157.SGD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"AC\" (SGD) ACC","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4729587-tesla-dont-be-fooled-by-the-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2478918073","content_text":"Tesla, Inc.'s 20% post-earnings surge has recovered most losses incurred after its underwhelming Robotaxi event.Tesla's solid Q3 earnings release supports the thesis that the worst is likely behind the EV leader.However, the market isn't dumb, given Tesla's sky-high valuation amid EV growth challenges.Tesla's fast-growing energy storage business might not be sufficient to justify the optimism baked into its autonomous driving ambitions.I argue why betting against TSLA isn't wise. However, going long on the stock seems too aggressive at the current levels.Tesla: 20% Post-Earnings Surge Recovered Most Of Recent LossesTesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) investors cheered the EV leader's Q3 earnings release as TSLA surged more than 20% on October 24. As a result, it has recovered most of the losses since its relatively underwhelming Robotaxi Day in early October. The significant volatility in the stock has likely stunned inexperienced TSLA holders as the market reassesses the Elon Musk-led company's EV growth profile.Doubts about Tesla's launch of “more affordable” vehicles dominated the narrative at its Robotaxi event. Reports about human-controlled Optimus robots made the news in the financial media, as investors were concerned about the company's autonomous ambitions. Hence, questions from bearish investors about what has changed over the past two weeks that led to yesterday's surge are justified.Management remains optimistic about scaling Tesla's autonomous aspirations over the next two years. However, I assess that the de-rating that followed its Robotaxi event in early October suggests the market is increasingly focused on the company's near-term growth prospects. Therefore, Tesla's ability to deliver a growth inflection in its financial performance could indicate the worst is likely over.There were already green shoots of a recovery in early October when Tesla posted delivery growth in Q3, outperforming Wall Street's estimates. In my previous TSLA article, I urged investors to remain cautious, as Tesla could disappoint at its Robotaxi event. My thesis panned out as the market digested the overstated hype, although this week's spectacular post-earnings surge has reversed the initial decline.Tesla's Q3 Earnings Suggests The Worst Is Likely Behind UsTesla's performance in Q3 underscores its pre-eminent position as the world's leading EV maker. As seen above, it recorded a 7.8% YoY increase in revenue in Q3, corroborating the recovery momentum it posted in Q2. Tesla has continued to manage its pricing levers to improve its competitiveness. The intense competition in the EV industry has hampered the company's ability to drive a more robust topline growth profile. The high-interest rate environment has continued to affect affordability, although the headwinds have likely peaked. Despite that, Tesla's ability to navigate these challenges and achieve a revenue growth inflection is a testament to its market leadership, scale, branding, and customer confidence.Notably, Tesla notched solid results with its Cybertruck, becoming the “third best-selling EV in Q3 in the US.” Therefore, the market is likely increasingly confident in its growth prospects through 2025, corroborating the EV leader's market dominance.Tesla's Scale Could Lift Its Margins FurtherManagement indicates macroeconomic challenges in Q4 could hamper its robust automotive gross margin recovery. However, its ability to post a solid corporate gross margin of almost 20% demonstrates the sustainability of Tesla's scale.In addition, Elon Musk telegraphed his confidence in achieving 20% to 30% in vehicle growth rates next year, justifying the recent optimism. As a result, Tesla's increasing scale should position the EV leader well into potential delivery estimates of above 2M for 2025.Coupled with the continued growth in its energy generation and storage business, I assess that the market has turned more constructive with the recent proof points. As seen above, Tesla's energy business has continued to do well, posting a topline growth of more than 40% on a trailing twelve-month basis. Given its improved scale, its gross profitability has also been lifted markedly, reaching nearly 26% in Q3 (trailing twelve months basis).As a result, Tesla has demonstrated its ability to chart a significant growth vector through its energy business, even as its EV growth has decelerated. Although its energy business remains nascent (relative to its automotive business), it's expected to play an increasingly critical role moving ahead.Solar energy capacity has surged to new highs, gaining significant influence in the renewable energy industry. Hence, I assess that cautious or bearish investors (including myself) have likely understated Tesla's capabilities to expand its growth drivers, notwithstanding the slowdown in its core EV business.TSLA Stock: But, Hasn't The Market Priced Them In?Despite that, TSLA's “F” valuation grade corroborates my cautious thesis that the market has likely overstated its relatively tepid “C-” growth grade. In other words, it's increasingly challenging for TSLA investors to justify its growth premium based on its fast-growing energy storage business. Accordingly, it hasn't been able to mitigate the slowdown in its main EV business.Tesla has committed to driving near- and medium-term growth through its Robotaxi business and autonomous driving software. However, these optionalities are still mired in significant uncertainties. Although management telegraphed its confidence in the volume production for Cybercab in 2026, investors must be cautious in potentially overstating them.Regulatory hurdles, deployment challenges, and capacity constraints could hamper management's optimism. In addition, the actualization of Tesla's autonomous driving ambitions isn't expected to be close to fruition yet. Hence, there seems to be too much hype baked into TSLA's arguably unjustified valuation metrics at the current levels.Is TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?TSLA's forward adjusted EPS multiple of 105x is substantially above its consumer discretionary (XLY) sector median of 17x. It's also markedly above its automotive peers' median of 3.6x (according to S&P Cap IQ data). Furthermore, investors should consider the relative underperformance of its solar energy peers listed in the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN), as it fell to new recent lows in October 2024. Therefore, anticipating a significant valuation re-rating based on its core EV or solar energy business could be increasingly challenging unless Tesla makes a substantial breakthrough in actualizing its autonomous ambitions.Despite that, its price action highlights the robustness of its dip-buying sentiments. TSLA's “A” momentum grade has been upgraded from “D” over the past six months, corroborating the stock's markedly improved buying momentum. Therefore, bearish investors must be cautious about trying to bet against the market, as these bets could be eviscerated, given the potentially high volatility and robustness in TSLA's underlying momentum.TSLA's price action has inched closer to a critical resistance zone under the $270 level. That level has resisted buying advances since December 2023, which justifies increased caution. Therefore, I assess that the market seems to have baked in steep optimism on Tesla, Inc.'s ability to actualize and monetize its autonomous driving and Robotaxi ambitions over the coming years.Hence, I urge investors to remain cautious about the stock, as profit-taking could also set in as it inches closer to the $270 zone.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":364197707681824,"gmtCreate":1729925696131,"gmtModify":1729925700073,"author":{"id":"4151941377592162","authorId":"4151941377592162","name":"zelia","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4151941377592162","idStr":"4151941377592162"},"htmlText":"Sour grapes are very sour. We know and.painful.....to swallow","listText":"Sour grapes are very sour. We know and.painful.....to swallow","text":"Sour grapes are very sour. We know and.painful.....to swallow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364197707681824","repostId":2478918073,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2478918073","pubTimestamp":1729923068,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2478918073?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-26 14:11","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Don't Be Fooled By The Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2478918073","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Tesla, Inc.'s 20% post-earnings surge has recovered most losses incurred after its underwhelming Robotaxi event.Tesla's solid Q3 earnings release supports the thesis that the worst is likely behind th","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li><p>Tesla, Inc.&#39;s 20% post-earnings surge has recovered most losses incurred after its underwhelming Robotaxi event.</p></li><li><p>Tesla&#39;s solid Q3 earnings release supports the thesis that the worst is likely behind the EV leader.</p></li><li><p>However, the market isn&#39;t dumb, given Tesla&#39;s sky-high valuation amid EV growth challenges.</p></li><li><p>Tesla&#39;s fast-growing energy storage business might not be sufficient to justify the optimism baked into its autonomous driving ambitions.</p></li><li><p>I argue why betting against TSLA isn&#39;t wise. However, going long on the stock seems too aggressive at the current levels.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9fb069981b6649ef9bb9d10bf4d75d46\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span></span></p><p></p><h2>Tesla: 20% Post-Earnings Surge Recovered Most Of Recent Losses</h2><p><strong>Tesla, Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ:TSLA) investors cheered the EV leader&#39;s Q3 earnings release as TSLA surged more than 20% on October 24. As a result, it has recovered most of the losses since its relatively underwhelming Robotaxi Day in early October. The significant volatility in the stock has likely stunned inexperienced TSLA holders as the market reassesses the Elon Musk-led company&#39;s EV growth profile.</p><p>Doubts about Tesla&#39;s launch of “more affordable” vehicles dominated the narrative at its Robotaxi event. Reports about human-controlled Optimus robots made the news in the financial media, as investors were concerned about the company&#39;s autonomous ambitions. Hence, questions from bearish investors about what has changed over the past two weeks that led to yesterday&#39;s surge are justified.</p><p>Management remains optimistic about scaling Tesla&#39;s autonomous aspirations over the next two years. However, I assess that the de-rating that followed its Robotaxi event in early October suggests the market is increasingly focused on the company&#39;s near-term growth prospects. Therefore, Tesla&#39;s ability to deliver a growth inflection in its financial performance could indicate the worst is likely over.</p><p>There were already green shoots of a recovery in early October when Tesla posted delivery growth in Q3, outperforming Wall Street&#39;s estimates. In my previous TSLA article, I urged investors to remain cautious, as Tesla could disappoint at its Robotaxi event. My thesis panned out as the market digested the overstated hype, although this week&#39;s spectacular post-earnings surge has reversed the initial decline.</p><h2>Tesla&#39;s Q3 Earnings Suggests The Worst Is Likely Behind Us</h2><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/15e0d0b30d4122dc26b561f82ba77f81\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>Tesla&#39;s performance in Q3 underscores its pre-eminent position as the world&#39;s leading EV maker. As seen above, it recorded a 7.8% YoY increase in revenue in Q3, corroborating the recovery momentum it posted in Q2. Tesla has continued to manage its pricing levers to improve its competitiveness. The intense competition in the EV industry has hampered the company&#39;s ability to drive a more robust topline growth profile. The high-interest rate environment has continued to affect affordability, although the headwinds have likely peaked. Despite that, Tesla&#39;s ability to navigate these challenges and achieve a revenue growth inflection is a testament to its market leadership, scale, branding, and customer confidence.</p><p>Notably, Tesla notched solid results with its Cybertruck, becoming the “third best-selling EV in Q3 in the US.” Therefore, the market is likely increasingly confident in its growth prospects through 2025, corroborating the EV leader&#39;s market dominance.</p><h2>Tesla&#39;s Scale Could Lift Its Margins Further</h2><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f94bc2cda755ff8959ee09c686fdef06\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>Management indicates macroeconomic challenges in Q4 could hamper its robust automotive gross margin recovery. However, its ability to post a solid corporate gross margin of almost 20% demonstrates the sustainability of Tesla&#39;s scale.</p><p>In addition, Elon Musk telegraphed his confidence in achieving 20% to 30% in vehicle growth rates next year, justifying the recent optimism. As a result, Tesla&#39;s increasing scale should position the EV leader well into potential delivery estimates of above 2M for 2025.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4c78be624408fa981e86dbd2847d08c6\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"454\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>Coupled with the continued growth in its energy generation and storage business, I assess that the market has turned more constructive with the recent proof points. As seen above, Tesla&#39;s energy business has continued to do well, posting a topline growth of more than 40% on a trailing twelve-month basis. Given its improved scale, its gross profitability has also been lifted markedly, reaching nearly 26% in Q3 (trailing twelve months basis).</p><p>As a result, Tesla has demonstrated its ability to chart a significant growth vector through its energy business, even as its EV growth has decelerated. Although its energy business remains nascent (relative to its automotive business), it&#39;s expected to play an increasingly critical role moving ahead.</p><p>Solar energy capacity has surged to new highs, gaining significant influence in the renewable energy industry. Hence, I assess that cautious or bearish investors (including myself) have likely understated Tesla&#39;s capabilities to expand its growth drivers, notwithstanding the slowdown in its core EV business.</p><h2>TSLA Stock: But, Hasn&#39;t The Market Priced Them In?</h2><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/119454cad8eb328c901c728cd7c0ff71\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"318\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>Despite that, TSLA&#39;s “F” valuation grade corroborates my cautious thesis that the market has likely overstated its relatively tepid “C-” growth grade. In other words, it&#39;s increasingly challenging for TSLA investors to justify its growth premium based on its fast-growing energy storage business. Accordingly, it hasn&#39;t been able to mitigate the slowdown in its main EV business.</p><p>Tesla has committed to driving near- and medium-term growth through its Robotaxi business and autonomous driving software. However, these optionalities are still mired in significant uncertainties. Although management telegraphed its confidence in the volume production for Cybercab in 2026, investors must be cautious in potentially overstating them.</p><p>Regulatory hurdles, deployment challenges, and capacity constraints could hamper management&#39;s optimism. In addition, the actualization of Tesla&#39;s autonomous driving ambitions isn&#39;t expected to be close to fruition yet. Hence, there seems to be too much hype baked into TSLA&#39;s arguably unjustified valuation metrics at the current levels.</p><h2>Is TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</h2><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/521b6c84d7a5a04ecba3f472fc901cd5\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>TSLA&#39;s forward adjusted EPS multiple of 105x is substantially above its consumer discretionary (XLY) sector median of 17x. It&#39;s also markedly above its automotive peers&#39; median of 3.6x (according to S&amp;P Cap IQ data). Furthermore, investors should consider the relative underperformance of its solar energy peers listed in the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN), as it fell to new recent lows in October 2024. Therefore, anticipating a significant valuation re-rating based on its core EV or solar energy business could be increasingly challenging unless Tesla makes a substantial breakthrough in actualizing its autonomous ambitions.</p><p>Despite that, its price action highlights the robustness of its dip-buying sentiments. TSLA&#39;s “A” momentum grade has been upgraded from “D” over the past six months, corroborating the stock&#39;s markedly improved buying momentum. Therefore, bearish investors must be cautious about trying to bet against the market, as these bets could be eviscerated, given the potentially high volatility and robustness in TSLA&#39;s underlying momentum.</p><p>TSLA&#39;s price action has inched closer to a critical resistance zone under the $270 level. That level has resisted buying advances since December 2023, which justifies increased caution. Therefore, I assess that the market seems to have baked in steep optimism on Tesla, Inc.&#39;s ability to actualize and monetize its autonomous driving and Robotaxi ambitions over the coming years.</p><p>Hence, I urge investors to remain cautious about the stock, as profit-taking could also set in as it inches closer to the $270 zone.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Don't Be Fooled By The Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Don't Be Fooled By The Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-26 14:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4729587-tesla-dont-be-fooled-by-the-market><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla, Inc.'s 20% post-earnings surge has recovered most losses incurred after its underwhelming Robotaxi event.Tesla's solid Q3 earnings release supports the thesis that the worst is likely behind ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4729587-tesla-dont-be-fooled-by-the-market\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU2213496289.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0964807845.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME & GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","SG9999015952.SGD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (SGD) ACC","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","SG9999015945.SGD":"LionGlobal Disruptive Innovation Fund A SGD","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","SG9999015986.USD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1145028129.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AQ\" (USD) INC","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU2023250330.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU2602419157.SGD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"AC\" (SGD) ACC","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4729587-tesla-dont-be-fooled-by-the-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2478918073","content_text":"Tesla, Inc.'s 20% post-earnings surge has recovered most losses incurred after its underwhelming Robotaxi event.Tesla's solid Q3 earnings release supports the thesis that the worst is likely behind the EV leader.However, the market isn't dumb, given Tesla's sky-high valuation amid EV growth challenges.Tesla's fast-growing energy storage business might not be sufficient to justify the optimism baked into its autonomous driving ambitions.I argue why betting against TSLA isn't wise. However, going long on the stock seems too aggressive at the current levels.Tesla: 20% Post-Earnings Surge Recovered Most Of Recent LossesTesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) investors cheered the EV leader's Q3 earnings release as TSLA surged more than 20% on October 24. As a result, it has recovered most of the losses since its relatively underwhelming Robotaxi Day in early October. The significant volatility in the stock has likely stunned inexperienced TSLA holders as the market reassesses the Elon Musk-led company's EV growth profile.Doubts about Tesla's launch of “more affordable” vehicles dominated the narrative at its Robotaxi event. Reports about human-controlled Optimus robots made the news in the financial media, as investors were concerned about the company's autonomous ambitions. Hence, questions from bearish investors about what has changed over the past two weeks that led to yesterday's surge are justified.Management remains optimistic about scaling Tesla's autonomous aspirations over the next two years. However, I assess that the de-rating that followed its Robotaxi event in early October suggests the market is increasingly focused on the company's near-term growth prospects. Therefore, Tesla's ability to deliver a growth inflection in its financial performance could indicate the worst is likely over.There were already green shoots of a recovery in early October when Tesla posted delivery growth in Q3, outperforming Wall Street's estimates. In my previous TSLA article, I urged investors to remain cautious, as Tesla could disappoint at its Robotaxi event. My thesis panned out as the market digested the overstated hype, although this week's spectacular post-earnings surge has reversed the initial decline.Tesla's Q3 Earnings Suggests The Worst Is Likely Behind UsTesla's performance in Q3 underscores its pre-eminent position as the world's leading EV maker. As seen above, it recorded a 7.8% YoY increase in revenue in Q3, corroborating the recovery momentum it posted in Q2. Tesla has continued to manage its pricing levers to improve its competitiveness. The intense competition in the EV industry has hampered the company's ability to drive a more robust topline growth profile. The high-interest rate environment has continued to affect affordability, although the headwinds have likely peaked. Despite that, Tesla's ability to navigate these challenges and achieve a revenue growth inflection is a testament to its market leadership, scale, branding, and customer confidence.Notably, Tesla notched solid results with its Cybertruck, becoming the “third best-selling EV in Q3 in the US.” Therefore, the market is likely increasingly confident in its growth prospects through 2025, corroborating the EV leader's market dominance.Tesla's Scale Could Lift Its Margins FurtherManagement indicates macroeconomic challenges in Q4 could hamper its robust automotive gross margin recovery. However, its ability to post a solid corporate gross margin of almost 20% demonstrates the sustainability of Tesla's scale.In addition, Elon Musk telegraphed his confidence in achieving 20% to 30% in vehicle growth rates next year, justifying the recent optimism. As a result, Tesla's increasing scale should position the EV leader well into potential delivery estimates of above 2M for 2025.Coupled with the continued growth in its energy generation and storage business, I assess that the market has turned more constructive with the recent proof points. As seen above, Tesla's energy business has continued to do well, posting a topline growth of more than 40% on a trailing twelve-month basis. Given its improved scale, its gross profitability has also been lifted markedly, reaching nearly 26% in Q3 (trailing twelve months basis).As a result, Tesla has demonstrated its ability to chart a significant growth vector through its energy business, even as its EV growth has decelerated. Although its energy business remains nascent (relative to its automotive business), it's expected to play an increasingly critical role moving ahead.Solar energy capacity has surged to new highs, gaining significant influence in the renewable energy industry. Hence, I assess that cautious or bearish investors (including myself) have likely understated Tesla's capabilities to expand its growth drivers, notwithstanding the slowdown in its core EV business.TSLA Stock: But, Hasn't The Market Priced Them In?Despite that, TSLA's “F” valuation grade corroborates my cautious thesis that the market has likely overstated its relatively tepid “C-” growth grade. In other words, it's increasingly challenging for TSLA investors to justify its growth premium based on its fast-growing energy storage business. Accordingly, it hasn't been able to mitigate the slowdown in its main EV business.Tesla has committed to driving near- and medium-term growth through its Robotaxi business and autonomous driving software. However, these optionalities are still mired in significant uncertainties. Although management telegraphed its confidence in the volume production for Cybercab in 2026, investors must be cautious in potentially overstating them.Regulatory hurdles, deployment challenges, and capacity constraints could hamper management's optimism. In addition, the actualization of Tesla's autonomous driving ambitions isn't expected to be close to fruition yet. Hence, there seems to be too much hype baked into TSLA's arguably unjustified valuation metrics at the current levels.Is TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?TSLA's forward adjusted EPS multiple of 105x is substantially above its consumer discretionary (XLY) sector median of 17x. It's also markedly above its automotive peers' median of 3.6x (according to S&P Cap IQ data). Furthermore, investors should consider the relative underperformance of its solar energy peers listed in the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN), as it fell to new recent lows in October 2024. Therefore, anticipating a significant valuation re-rating based on its core EV or solar energy business could be increasingly challenging unless Tesla makes a substantial breakthrough in actualizing its autonomous ambitions.Despite that, its price action highlights the robustness of its dip-buying sentiments. TSLA's “A” momentum grade has been upgraded from “D” over the past six months, corroborating the stock's markedly improved buying momentum. Therefore, bearish investors must be cautious about trying to bet against the market, as these bets could be eviscerated, given the potentially high volatility and robustness in TSLA's underlying momentum.TSLA's price action has inched closer to a critical resistance zone under the $270 level. That level has resisted buying advances since December 2023, which justifies increased caution. Therefore, I assess that the market seems to have baked in steep optimism on Tesla, Inc.'s ability to actualize and monetize its autonomous driving and Robotaxi ambitions over the coming years.Hence, I urge investors to remain cautious about the stock, as profit-taking could also set in as it inches closer to the $270 zone.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":364197540741128,"gmtCreate":1729925657661,"gmtModify":1729925661692,"author":{"id":"4151941377592162","authorId":"4151941377592162","name":"zelia","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4151941377592162","idStr":"4151941377592162"},"htmlText":"Another writer who spread negative article ard. Likely the writer did not enjoy the wave....so now become a sour graoe....","listText":"Another writer who spread negative article ard. Likely the writer did not enjoy the wave....so now become a sour graoe....","text":"Another writer who spread negative article ard. Likely the writer did not enjoy the wave....so now become a sour graoe....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364197540741128","repostId":2478918073,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2478918073","pubTimestamp":1729923068,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2478918073?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-26 14:11","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Don't Be Fooled By The Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2478918073","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Tesla, Inc.'s 20% post-earnings surge has recovered most losses incurred after its underwhelming Robotaxi event.Tesla's solid Q3 earnings release supports the thesis that the worst is likely behind th","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li><p>Tesla, Inc.&#39;s 20% post-earnings surge has recovered most losses incurred after its underwhelming Robotaxi event.</p></li><li><p>Tesla&#39;s solid Q3 earnings release supports the thesis that the worst is likely behind the EV leader.</p></li><li><p>However, the market isn&#39;t dumb, given Tesla&#39;s sky-high valuation amid EV growth challenges.</p></li><li><p>Tesla&#39;s fast-growing energy storage business might not be sufficient to justify the optimism baked into its autonomous driving ambitions.</p></li><li><p>I argue why betting against TSLA isn&#39;t wise. However, going long on the stock seems too aggressive at the current levels.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9fb069981b6649ef9bb9d10bf4d75d46\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span></span></p><p></p><h2>Tesla: 20% Post-Earnings Surge Recovered Most Of Recent Losses</h2><p><strong>Tesla, Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ:TSLA) investors cheered the EV leader&#39;s Q3 earnings release as TSLA surged more than 20% on October 24. As a result, it has recovered most of the losses since its relatively underwhelming Robotaxi Day in early October. The significant volatility in the stock has likely stunned inexperienced TSLA holders as the market reassesses the Elon Musk-led company&#39;s EV growth profile.</p><p>Doubts about Tesla&#39;s launch of “more affordable” vehicles dominated the narrative at its Robotaxi event. Reports about human-controlled Optimus robots made the news in the financial media, as investors were concerned about the company&#39;s autonomous ambitions. Hence, questions from bearish investors about what has changed over the past two weeks that led to yesterday&#39;s surge are justified.</p><p>Management remains optimistic about scaling Tesla&#39;s autonomous aspirations over the next two years. However, I assess that the de-rating that followed its Robotaxi event in early October suggests the market is increasingly focused on the company&#39;s near-term growth prospects. Therefore, Tesla&#39;s ability to deliver a growth inflection in its financial performance could indicate the worst is likely over.</p><p>There were already green shoots of a recovery in early October when Tesla posted delivery growth in Q3, outperforming Wall Street&#39;s estimates. In my previous TSLA article, I urged investors to remain cautious, as Tesla could disappoint at its Robotaxi event. My thesis panned out as the market digested the overstated hype, although this week&#39;s spectacular post-earnings surge has reversed the initial decline.</p><h2>Tesla&#39;s Q3 Earnings Suggests The Worst Is Likely Behind Us</h2><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/15e0d0b30d4122dc26b561f82ba77f81\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>Tesla&#39;s performance in Q3 underscores its pre-eminent position as the world&#39;s leading EV maker. As seen above, it recorded a 7.8% YoY increase in revenue in Q3, corroborating the recovery momentum it posted in Q2. Tesla has continued to manage its pricing levers to improve its competitiveness. The intense competition in the EV industry has hampered the company&#39;s ability to drive a more robust topline growth profile. The high-interest rate environment has continued to affect affordability, although the headwinds have likely peaked. Despite that, Tesla&#39;s ability to navigate these challenges and achieve a revenue growth inflection is a testament to its market leadership, scale, branding, and customer confidence.</p><p>Notably, Tesla notched solid results with its Cybertruck, becoming the “third best-selling EV in Q3 in the US.” Therefore, the market is likely increasingly confident in its growth prospects through 2025, corroborating the EV leader&#39;s market dominance.</p><h2>Tesla&#39;s Scale Could Lift Its Margins Further</h2><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f94bc2cda755ff8959ee09c686fdef06\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>Management indicates macroeconomic challenges in Q4 could hamper its robust automotive gross margin recovery. However, its ability to post a solid corporate gross margin of almost 20% demonstrates the sustainability of Tesla&#39;s scale.</p><p>In addition, Elon Musk telegraphed his confidence in achieving 20% to 30% in vehicle growth rates next year, justifying the recent optimism. As a result, Tesla&#39;s increasing scale should position the EV leader well into potential delivery estimates of above 2M for 2025.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4c78be624408fa981e86dbd2847d08c6\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"454\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>Coupled with the continued growth in its energy generation and storage business, I assess that the market has turned more constructive with the recent proof points. As seen above, Tesla&#39;s energy business has continued to do well, posting a topline growth of more than 40% on a trailing twelve-month basis. Given its improved scale, its gross profitability has also been lifted markedly, reaching nearly 26% in Q3 (trailing twelve months basis).</p><p>As a result, Tesla has demonstrated its ability to chart a significant growth vector through its energy business, even as its EV growth has decelerated. Although its energy business remains nascent (relative to its automotive business), it&#39;s expected to play an increasingly critical role moving ahead.</p><p>Solar energy capacity has surged to new highs, gaining significant influence in the renewable energy industry. Hence, I assess that cautious or bearish investors (including myself) have likely understated Tesla&#39;s capabilities to expand its growth drivers, notwithstanding the slowdown in its core EV business.</p><h2>TSLA Stock: But, Hasn&#39;t The Market Priced Them In?</h2><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/119454cad8eb328c901c728cd7c0ff71\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"318\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>Despite that, TSLA&#39;s “F” valuation grade corroborates my cautious thesis that the market has likely overstated its relatively tepid “C-” growth grade. In other words, it&#39;s increasingly challenging for TSLA investors to justify its growth premium based on its fast-growing energy storage business. Accordingly, it hasn&#39;t been able to mitigate the slowdown in its main EV business.</p><p>Tesla has committed to driving near- and medium-term growth through its Robotaxi business and autonomous driving software. However, these optionalities are still mired in significant uncertainties. Although management telegraphed its confidence in the volume production for Cybercab in 2026, investors must be cautious in potentially overstating them.</p><p>Regulatory hurdles, deployment challenges, and capacity constraints could hamper management&#39;s optimism. In addition, the actualization of Tesla&#39;s autonomous driving ambitions isn&#39;t expected to be close to fruition yet. Hence, there seems to be too much hype baked into TSLA&#39;s arguably unjustified valuation metrics at the current levels.</p><h2>Is TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</h2><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/521b6c84d7a5a04ecba3f472fc901cd5\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>TSLA&#39;s forward adjusted EPS multiple of 105x is substantially above its consumer discretionary (XLY) sector median of 17x. It&#39;s also markedly above its automotive peers&#39; median of 3.6x (according to S&amp;P Cap IQ data). Furthermore, investors should consider the relative underperformance of its solar energy peers listed in the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN), as it fell to new recent lows in October 2024. Therefore, anticipating a significant valuation re-rating based on its core EV or solar energy business could be increasingly challenging unless Tesla makes a substantial breakthrough in actualizing its autonomous ambitions.</p><p>Despite that, its price action highlights the robustness of its dip-buying sentiments. TSLA&#39;s “A” momentum grade has been upgraded from “D” over the past six months, corroborating the stock&#39;s markedly improved buying momentum. Therefore, bearish investors must be cautious about trying to bet against the market, as these bets could be eviscerated, given the potentially high volatility and robustness in TSLA&#39;s underlying momentum.</p><p>TSLA&#39;s price action has inched closer to a critical resistance zone under the $270 level. That level has resisted buying advances since December 2023, which justifies increased caution. Therefore, I assess that the market seems to have baked in steep optimism on Tesla, Inc.&#39;s ability to actualize and monetize its autonomous driving and Robotaxi ambitions over the coming years.</p><p>Hence, I urge investors to remain cautious about the stock, as profit-taking could also set in as it inches closer to the $270 zone.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Don't Be Fooled By The Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Don't Be Fooled By The Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-26 14:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4729587-tesla-dont-be-fooled-by-the-market><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla, Inc.'s 20% post-earnings surge has recovered most losses incurred after its underwhelming Robotaxi event.Tesla's solid Q3 earnings release supports the thesis that the worst is likely behind ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4729587-tesla-dont-be-fooled-by-the-market\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU2213496289.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0964807845.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME & GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","SG9999015952.SGD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (SGD) ACC","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","SG9999015945.SGD":"LionGlobal Disruptive Innovation Fund A SGD","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","SG9999015986.USD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1145028129.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AQ\" (USD) INC","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU2023250330.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU2602419157.SGD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"AC\" (SGD) ACC","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4729587-tesla-dont-be-fooled-by-the-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2478918073","content_text":"Tesla, Inc.'s 20% post-earnings surge has recovered most losses incurred after its underwhelming Robotaxi event.Tesla's solid Q3 earnings release supports the thesis that the worst is likely behind the EV leader.However, the market isn't dumb, given Tesla's sky-high valuation amid EV growth challenges.Tesla's fast-growing energy storage business might not be sufficient to justify the optimism baked into its autonomous driving ambitions.I argue why betting against TSLA isn't wise. However, going long on the stock seems too aggressive at the current levels.Tesla: 20% Post-Earnings Surge Recovered Most Of Recent LossesTesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) investors cheered the EV leader's Q3 earnings release as TSLA surged more than 20% on October 24. As a result, it has recovered most of the losses since its relatively underwhelming Robotaxi Day in early October. The significant volatility in the stock has likely stunned inexperienced TSLA holders as the market reassesses the Elon Musk-led company's EV growth profile.Doubts about Tesla's launch of “more affordable” vehicles dominated the narrative at its Robotaxi event. Reports about human-controlled Optimus robots made the news in the financial media, as investors were concerned about the company's autonomous ambitions. Hence, questions from bearish investors about what has changed over the past two weeks that led to yesterday's surge are justified.Management remains optimistic about scaling Tesla's autonomous aspirations over the next two years. However, I assess that the de-rating that followed its Robotaxi event in early October suggests the market is increasingly focused on the company's near-term growth prospects. Therefore, Tesla's ability to deliver a growth inflection in its financial performance could indicate the worst is likely over.There were already green shoots of a recovery in early October when Tesla posted delivery growth in Q3, outperforming Wall Street's estimates. In my previous TSLA article, I urged investors to remain cautious, as Tesla could disappoint at its Robotaxi event. My thesis panned out as the market digested the overstated hype, although this week's spectacular post-earnings surge has reversed the initial decline.Tesla's Q3 Earnings Suggests The Worst Is Likely Behind UsTesla's performance in Q3 underscores its pre-eminent position as the world's leading EV maker. As seen above, it recorded a 7.8% YoY increase in revenue in Q3, corroborating the recovery momentum it posted in Q2. Tesla has continued to manage its pricing levers to improve its competitiveness. The intense competition in the EV industry has hampered the company's ability to drive a more robust topline growth profile. The high-interest rate environment has continued to affect affordability, although the headwinds have likely peaked. Despite that, Tesla's ability to navigate these challenges and achieve a revenue growth inflection is a testament to its market leadership, scale, branding, and customer confidence.Notably, Tesla notched solid results with its Cybertruck, becoming the “third best-selling EV in Q3 in the US.” Therefore, the market is likely increasingly confident in its growth prospects through 2025, corroborating the EV leader's market dominance.Tesla's Scale Could Lift Its Margins FurtherManagement indicates macroeconomic challenges in Q4 could hamper its robust automotive gross margin recovery. However, its ability to post a solid corporate gross margin of almost 20% demonstrates the sustainability of Tesla's scale.In addition, Elon Musk telegraphed his confidence in achieving 20% to 30% in vehicle growth rates next year, justifying the recent optimism. As a result, Tesla's increasing scale should position the EV leader well into potential delivery estimates of above 2M for 2025.Coupled with the continued growth in its energy generation and storage business, I assess that the market has turned more constructive with the recent proof points. As seen above, Tesla's energy business has continued to do well, posting a topline growth of more than 40% on a trailing twelve-month basis. Given its improved scale, its gross profitability has also been lifted markedly, reaching nearly 26% in Q3 (trailing twelve months basis).As a result, Tesla has demonstrated its ability to chart a significant growth vector through its energy business, even as its EV growth has decelerated. Although its energy business remains nascent (relative to its automotive business), it's expected to play an increasingly critical role moving ahead.Solar energy capacity has surged to new highs, gaining significant influence in the renewable energy industry. Hence, I assess that cautious or bearish investors (including myself) have likely understated Tesla's capabilities to expand its growth drivers, notwithstanding the slowdown in its core EV business.TSLA Stock: But, Hasn't The Market Priced Them In?Despite that, TSLA's “F” valuation grade corroborates my cautious thesis that the market has likely overstated its relatively tepid “C-” growth grade. In other words, it's increasingly challenging for TSLA investors to justify its growth premium based on its fast-growing energy storage business. Accordingly, it hasn't been able to mitigate the slowdown in its main EV business.Tesla has committed to driving near- and medium-term growth through its Robotaxi business and autonomous driving software. However, these optionalities are still mired in significant uncertainties. Although management telegraphed its confidence in the volume production for Cybercab in 2026, investors must be cautious in potentially overstating them.Regulatory hurdles, deployment challenges, and capacity constraints could hamper management's optimism. In addition, the actualization of Tesla's autonomous driving ambitions isn't expected to be close to fruition yet. Hence, there seems to be too much hype baked into TSLA's arguably unjustified valuation metrics at the current levels.Is TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?TSLA's forward adjusted EPS multiple of 105x is substantially above its consumer discretionary (XLY) sector median of 17x. It's also markedly above its automotive peers' median of 3.6x (according to S&P Cap IQ data). Furthermore, investors should consider the relative underperformance of its solar energy peers listed in the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN), as it fell to new recent lows in October 2024. Therefore, anticipating a significant valuation re-rating based on its core EV or solar energy business could be increasingly challenging unless Tesla makes a substantial breakthrough in actualizing its autonomous ambitions.Despite that, its price action highlights the robustness of its dip-buying sentiments. TSLA's “A” momentum grade has been upgraded from “D” over the past six months, corroborating the stock's markedly improved buying momentum. Therefore, bearish investors must be cautious about trying to bet against the market, as these bets could be eviscerated, given the potentially high volatility and robustness in TSLA's underlying momentum.TSLA's price action has inched closer to a critical resistance zone under the $270 level. That level has resisted buying advances since December 2023, which justifies increased caution. Therefore, I assess that the market seems to have baked in steep optimism on Tesla, Inc.'s ability to actualize and monetize its autonomous driving and Robotaxi ambitions over the coming years.Hence, I urge investors to remain cautious about the stock, as profit-taking could also set in as it inches closer to the $270 zone.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":21,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":3,"favoriteSize":2,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}