JD.com: A Value Trap Boxed In By Housing Slump And Weak Consumer Sentiment

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JD.com: A Value Trap Boxed In By Housing Slump And Weak Consumer Sentiment

seekingalpha11-20

We are bearish on JD.com due to its China-centric business model, weak consumer sentiment, and ongoing housing market slump, which are unlikely to improve soon.Despite JD's recent earnings beat, the ...

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Hopehope赋予希望
·11-20
Poor understanding of JD business. No point to read
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JD delivered largely in-line revenue and a better-than-expected earnings beat in the most recent quarter, as the company benefited from the recent appliance trade-in measures and higher-than-expected general merchandise growth driven by JD supermarkets. The market’s muted reaction is consistent with our cautious view that the better-than-expected numbers are likely to be unsustainable in the wake of the recent policy announcement that lacks material measures targeted to address China’s ailing property market and weak consumer sentiment. Without direct measures to drive consumer demand for discretionary spending or a material recovery in the property market, we would be cautious about JD’s shares heading into 2025. While the bulls may argue that the Chinese policymakers may be keeping their powder dry to gauge the initial impact of the debt swap and gradually roll out consumption-driven policies as they see fit, we are more skeptical of this optimistic view, that we do not believe there is a material shift in the country’s top management view on issues such as “common prosperity” and “welfarism.” JD is a consensus buy stock, per Bloomberg, with 42 buys, 5 holds, and 0 sells. We are bearish on JD given the reasons we mentioned above. Similar to all Chinese ADRs, JD share rallied 42% since the September 24th policy announcement to its peak and has since pulled back 25% since its peak in early October. We expect the ongoing softness in China’s property market and weak consumer environment to continue to weigh on the share price. The stock currently trades at 8x 2025E consensus earnings, in line with that of PDD, which has a much faster growth expectation, given its unique position to capture the current consumption downgrade environment in China and the global growth potential of Temu. Capital IQ, Astrada Advisors Worth noting that JD's ex-China revenue contribution is almost non-existent, meaning that JD is positioned less favorably compared with PDD and BABA when it comes to de-risking its China exposure. As such, unless there are material policy shifts and stimulus to drive housing sales and consumer spending, we would avoid JD as it appears to be a value-trap rather than a value-play similar to Alibaba. Uncertain revenue growth outlook driven by weak consumer spending and housing market JD’s electronics and home appliances segment, which accounts for 47% of JD’s consolidated revenue, saw 2.7% y/y growth in Q3, a sequential acceleration from Q2 when it declined by -4.6% y/y. Much of the growth was driven by the recently announced home appliances trade-in subsidies program, designed to stimulate discretionary consumption on large ticket items. Although there are signs of consumers taking advantage of the subsidy to replace the old appliances, we question whether the trade-in subsidy can drive a sustained revenue growth trajectory for JD heading into 2025. Worth reminding investors that consumption is a function of income level and income growth expectations. The more optimistic the person is about their future income, the more willing they are to consume. On the other hand, a less optimistic scenario would result in either a consumption downgrade or a pullback. China's consumer confidence remains deflated and this is largely driven by a combination of weak employment market (particularly youth unemployment), low wage growth expectations, and diminishing wealth effect due to the weakness in the property market.   Statista We note that the tourism numbers during Golden Week in the first week of October continued to point to cautious consumers whose spending per head remains below that of pre-COVID level. In addition, the Singles' Day shopping festival that started in the middle of October and will last throughout November also painted a contrasting image in which platforms attempt to put a positive spin on the event while merchants and consumers are showing signs of fatigue and cutbacks. Although China's October retail sales that were announced last Friday beat consensus estimates, property prices in major cities continue to decline, negatively impacting the consumer wealth effect. The recent policy to drive property purchase by slashing homebuying taxes could stimulate some demand, but it is too early to judge how effective this could turn out, given that consumer sentiment continues to remain weak. Limited valuation upside from the current level We value JD using SoTP methodology, assuming JD Retail achieving an EBIT of RMB 38.7bn in 2025E, or +4% growth from consensus 2024E EBIT. We applied a generous 10x target multiple as part of valuation since JD has been trading at around 10x over the past two years, and we feel this is an appropriate multiple given the lack of catalyst for the core e-commerce business. Capital IQ As for the subsidiaries, we value each using fair market value and a 30% HoldCo discount to derive an implied value of $33.73 per share, or a 5% discount compared with the current level. Capital IQ, Astrada Advisors In conclusion, we believe JD is boxed in by a number of challenges such as China's housing slump, weak consumer sentiment, and lack of global growth opportunities. We recommend investors look at Chinese companies with strong economic moat and global growth potential, such as the case with PDD given its low-cost leadership and cross-border e-commerce expansion, or Meituan given its operational efficiency and execution that could drive opportunities outside of China (see: Meituan: Riding On Keeta To Drive Overseas Growth).  Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"Economic Data,analysis","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[{"id":373016143798496,"gmtCreate":1732078750192,"gmtModify":1732078755097,"author":{"id":"3563421686188310","authorId":"3563421686188310","name":"Hopehope赋予希望","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/46495f44529967f5d3b4d03a47167f5b","vip":2,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3563421686188310","authorIdStr":"3563421686188310"},"htmlText":"Poor understanding of JD business. No point to read","listText":"Poor understanding of JD business. No point to read","text":"Poor understanding of JD business. No point to read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/373016143798496","repostId":2484886461,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}