To The Moon

Some are saying China’s bull market is in danger of ending because of risks that stimulus will disappoint. Well, I don’t think so. PBoC has plenty of room to stimulate if the need arises. And I’ve noticed that they are more sensitive to market developments these days than they were 5 to 10 years ago.Foreign Investment are no longer fleeing. They are flowing back into China in record pace. Unfortunately, more than a few “influencers” are trying to stoke fear again among investors in Chinese equities. The more they do this, the more it makes me feel bullish.China’s stimulus is massive and can get a lot bigger. The property market is clearly on the mend. Retail sales just posted improvements in Jan/Feb period with online retail sales +7.3%. Caixin mfg PMI was up to 50.8 in Feb while services

The Internet is open source. It unleashed untold trillions in economic activity and unquantifiable benefits to humanity. AI is being open sourced in China.It will likely unleash the same for that country in the coming decades.For those that choose to keep AI closed-source to get the most profit and valuation today, it risks the development of the AI-driven economy down the road.

Not surprised that it would be BofA that would be coming out with nonsense like this. A “meaningful correction due to similarities with the 2015 boom and bust cycle” flies in the face of one of the strongest stimulus measures unleashed by Beijing since the 2008 GFC.Retail sales are picking up with online sales +7.3% in 2M25. Caixin PMIs show expansion both in services and manufacturing. Fixed asset investment growth accelerating. The real estate market is recovering with T1 cities seeing price gains YoY. Not to mention the impact that DeepSeek and other AI models are expected to have on the economy - something being touted for in West with ChatGPT etc. Like I said, you can’t say that AI will be a massive multi-trillion-dollar boon for one country and not have any effect on another. Especia

If $Apple(AAPL)$ 's waning sales in China are any indication of Chinese consumer appetite for US brands, $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ has some challenges ahead. We'll have weekly NEV insurance figures out tomorrow. If that doesn't pick up substantially from the previous week, it's one sign that actual demand isn't as strong as 200k reservations for Model Y facelift suggested. ImageJP Morgan expects TSLA to report its worst quarterly deliveries in three years:“We struggle to think of anything analogous in the history of the automotive industry, in which a brand has lost so much value so quickly."

1. $Apple(AAPL)$ Apple has an image problem.It wants to project an image as a growth stock - a forward PE ratio of 30X.But it is no longer a growth stock. Its TTM revenue growth over 3 years is 3.9%, while its TTM FCF is flat.It's a cash machine for sure. But does a cash machine deserve to trade at 30X forward PE?Image2. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Over the last 4 years, China’s pure batter EV sales have been rising while enduring the same seasonal dips. (Chart 1)Over the same period, Tesla has hardly grown sales beyond its 80k monthly peak. (Chart 2)This isn’t the performance of a company gaining market share. The opposite in fact is happening.Image

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ reports receiving 200K orders for its facelifted Model Y in China, which started production on Feb 18 and deliveries on Feb 26.While encouraging, it's important to note a "large number" of these orders are for refundable deposits. They don't guarantee that many Model Y sales - cancellations are common in China where brands aggressively compete for consumer attention.It's also encouraging that weekly insurance registrations for Tesla from Feb 24 to Mar 2 grew 77% week-on-week to 12,700 units. That's about on par with Tesla's weekly domestic sales in 2024.Given the production lines for both Model 3 and facelifted Model Y are already up and running, and assuming pent-up demand from launch orders of the Model Y, we should see thes

Dear Mr. Musk,An almost 50% drawdown in 2.5 months just erased close to $800B in wealth for your $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ shareholders including yourself. You might want to spend some time away from DOGE to address the concerns of the same investors who believed in you and helped make you wildly successful.Just a thought.I don’t own it. I’m also very relaxed. It’s just crazy how a stock of any major company - let alone a Mag7 stock - crash by nearly half in 2.5 months and not a peep from its CEO. 😅Image

Hang Seng Tech Index $HSTECH(HSTECH)$ brushes off another down day on Wall Street to tack on another 4.5% gain. Now up 41% from January lows. 🔥🔥🔥 $KWEB $KTECThe fact this bull market has barely paused even in light of Trump’s push for strong investment curbs against China’s tech sector is indicative of the real sentiment change in the market. Even locals (Chinese) keep piling i to the market because they know things are getting better.Premiums to ADRs: $BABA-W(09988)$ $Alibaba(BABA)$ +5.1% $JD-SW(09618)$ $JD.com(JD)$ +7.9% $BIDU-SW(09888

This example of $Apple(AAPL)$ now committing hundreds of billions in US investments is very telling of the issues that plague US-China relations. Politicians love to tell us China is to blame for stealing jobs especially those in the rustbelt area. But they fail to call out the same US companies that benefitted immensely from their business with China but never had a long-term plan to elevate the productive capacity of their home market.US corporations, for decades, have benefitted from outsourcing production to countries like China. They are driven by a desire to increase profitability, which they cannot be blamed for doing on behalf of shareholders and Wall Street. But it's also important for these same companies - with market caps in the trilli

BYD Company’s monthly chart. It was, at one point, owner of 24.59% of all voting H-shares of $BYD Co., Ltd.(BYDDF)$ .They already trimmed that to just 4.94% by July 2024 after selling 1.4m shares @247 per share. Stock last traded at 392 per share. $BYD COMPANY(01211)$ Image $KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF(KWEB)$ may look like it’s had a helluva run from $27 to $37. But remember where it came from while keeping in mind what’s going on in China:✅Structural shift in economy✅DeepSeek AI revolution ✅Consumption stimulus✅Valuation discount vs $The Magnificent Seven ETF(MAGS)$ Image