Macrotips Trading

    • Macrotips TradingMacrotips Trading
      ·11-28

      HYGW: Avoid This Amortizing ETF

      The iShares High Yield Corporate Bond Buywrite Strategy ETF writes covered calls on the HYG ETF to generate high distributions. The fund's strategy results in capped upside and uncapped downside, causing it to underperform the underlying HYG ETF over the long term. Given the monthly rolling of HYGW's covered calls and current low credit spreads, HYGW is likely to see capital losses as the economy weakens in the coming years. AndreyPopov/iStock via Getty Images In recent years, we have seen a proliferation of 'derivative income funds' in financial markets. From plain vanilla funds like the JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI) that write covered call options on the
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      HYGW: Avoid This Amortizing ETF
    • Macrotips TradingMacrotips Trading
      ·11-26

      MTBA: Asymmetric Risk/Reward - Raise To A Buy

      Investing in equities and credit markets is challenging due to high valuations; consider mortgage-backed securities for better value. MBS spreads are currently at multi-year highs as investors fear a rapid decline in interest rates and mortgage refinancings. Interest rates may be higher for longer as the U.S. economy remains resilient, and inflation progress has stalled. This should allow MTBA investors to earn an attractive spread vs. treasuries. Torsten Asmus As a value investor, investing in the current market environment is quite challenging, as almost every market appears overvalued relative to historical levels. From equities to credit, investors have priced in the most optimistic scenarios, leaving little room for
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      MTBA: Asymmetric Risk/Reward - Raise To A Buy
    • Macrotips TradingMacrotips Trading
      ·11-24

      NANC And KRUZ: Tariffs Are The Wildcard

      The NANC and KRUZ ETFs supposedly allow retail traders to follow the market-beating trades of Congresspersons like Nancy Pelosi and Ted Cruz. Assuming their allocations remain static, President Trump's policies should be more beneficial for / less detrimental to the KRUZ ETF. However, tariffs remain a wildcard, as it is unclear which ETF would be more impacted by potential inflation and economic weakness. bbraley/E+ via Getty Images Back in the summer, I wrote an initiation article on the Unusual Whales Subversive Democratic Trading ETF (BATS:NANC) and the Unusual Whales Subver
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      NANC And KRUZ: Tariffs Are The Wildcard
    • Macrotips TradingMacrotips Trading
      ·11-21

      Barrick Gold: Booking Another Disappointing Year?

      Barrick Gold's stock has underperformed despite high gold prices, highlighting the challenges of capital-intensive mining operations and rising costs. I recommend royalty companies like Wheaton Precious Metals and ore processors like Dynacor for better long-term returns due to their capital-efficient business models. Barrick's latest quarter disappointed with lower production and higher costs, and the company is likely to miss its annual guidance. AarreRinne With gold prices north of $2,600 / oz, investors in gold miners like Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE:GOLD) (TSX:ABX:CA) must be laughing to the bank, right? Unfortunately, that has not been the case. Since my last
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      Barrick Gold: Booking Another Disappointing Year?
    • Macrotips TradingMacrotips Trading
      ·11-20

      Freehold: Downgrade To A Hold On Poor Outlook For Crude Oil

      Freehold Royalties' royalty business model offers superior returns and cost advantages, outperforming energy producers and ETFs. FRHLF's dividend yield is sustainable down to US$50/bbl WTI, supported by strong netbacks and low operating costs. Looking forward, crude oil appears to be entering a downcycle as prices recently broke down from a multiyear technical pattern. I downgraded Freehold to a Hold but expect it to outperform other energy equities during the anticipated downcycle in oil prices. ugurhan Freehold Royalties (TSX:FRU:CA) (OTCPK:FRHLF) has long been one of my preferred energy investments. I have personally owned Freehold shares for many years, as I firmly believe the royal
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      Freehold: Downgrade To A Hold On Poor Outlook For Crude Oil
    • Macrotips TradingMacrotips Trading
      ·11-10

      Gray Television: Dead Money (Rating Downgrade)

      Gray Television is the second-largest local TV station operator in the U.S. with strong leverage to political ad spending. Unfortunately, the 2024 political ad cycle was a disappointment, as GTN did not see 2020's level of Senate ad spending. Despite a recent poor Q3 earnings report causing the stock to drop, the long-term deleveraging story continues to play out. However, with the next significant catalyst at least 2 years away (2026 mid-terms), GTN could be 'dead money' for a while. uschools I have been an ardent bull on Gray Television (NYSE:GTN) for many quarters. My buy thesis on the stock is simple: The company's business model of operating local television stations experiences bonanza earnings every other year, as it follows
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      Gray Television: Dead Money (Rating Downgrade)
    • Macrotips TradingMacrotips Trading
      ·11-09

      CDX: Good Way To Own High Yield Bonds

      Simplify High Yield PLUS Credit Hedge ETF uses a long-short portfolio of high-quality vs. low-quality stocks to hedge credit risk, offering a positive carry credit hedge. While CDX offers protection against credit risk, it does not hedge against rising interest rates, posing a risk during periods of increasing rates. I rate CDX a buy for its potential to make high-yield bonds more palatable by mitigating downside risks from a negative credit cycle. tumsasedgars To be honest, I have a bit of a complicated relationship with Simplify Asset Management, the manager of the Simplify High Yield PLUS Credit Hedge ETF (NYSEARCA:CDX). On the one hand, I find some of Simplify's products truly innovative
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      CDX: Good Way To Own High Yield Bonds
    • Macrotips TradingMacrotips Trading
      ·11-08

      Freddie Mac: A Strong Trump Trade Candidate

      Freddie Mac is a GSE that provides mortgage financing to the American real estate market. FMCC shares surged 39% after Trump's re-election, as investors bet on a potential privatization of the company. With the company hugely profitable, Freddie Mac's equity could be very valuable, hence the interest in a privatization plan. Although the upside is great, I recommend investors only speculate with money they can afford to lose due to many unknowns and competition from well-informed institutional investors. JHVEPhoto With Donald Trump being re-elected as America's 47th president, I have been analyzing the various 'Trump trades' to see whether any of them make sense. One prominent 'Trump trade' that has been bandied about by hedge funds is the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (
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      Freddie Mac: A Strong Trump Trade Candidate
    • Macrotips TradingMacrotips Trading
      ·11-06

      Vornado: A Full Recovery Is Priced In

      Vornado Realty Trust is one of the largest office real estate REITs in the markets. VNO's Q3 results were in line with estimates but showed YoY declines in revenue and FFO/share, reflecting a challenging environment. The demand for office space remains weak due to the rise of remote work, with significant vacancy rates and new supply entering the market. The REIT's shares have fully priced in a recovery back to 95%+ occupancy rates when reality is much lower. I rate VNO a hold. gollykim/E+ via Getty Images I last wrote about Vornado Realty Trust (NYSE:VNO) at the beginning of the year, when I downgraded the stock after a strong rally throug
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      Vornado: A Full Recovery Is Priced In
    • Macrotips TradingMacrotips Trading
      ·11-05

      AGOX: Is This A 5 Star ETF?

      The AGOX ETF, despite its 5-star Morningstar rating, shows inconsistencies and warning signs, making me hesitant to recommend it. AGOX is a momentum-driven hedge fund in an ETF structure, but its portfolio contradicts its advertised fund-of-ETFs strategy. The fund's small management team raises concerns about the sophistication of its proprietary quantitative model and overall investment process. OlekStock/iStock via Getty Images For me, looking up new and undercovered funds and investments is a hobby that I like to do in my 'retirement', to pass the time and keep me on my toes. In this article, I will take a look at
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      AGOX: Is This A 5 Star ETF?
     
     
     
     

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