The Energy Realist

    • The Energy RealistThe Energy Realist
      ·2024-11-25

      Borr Drilling: 3 Reasons To Look Beyond The Current Selloff

      Borr Drilling sold off on news that Aramco is suspending one of its rigs. The sell-off is perhaps amplified by the Oslo de-listing as certain institutional holders can no longer own the stock. Despite the worries, Borr Drilling is expected to generate 20% FCF yield next year under conservative assumptions. The replacement value of Borr Drilling's premium assets promises significant equity upside down the road. shaunl Investment thesis Borr Drilling (NYSE:BORR) is undergoing a 50% drawdown from its highs last year: The market sentiment to energy stocks has indeed been negative on lower oil prices, concerns over OPEC's spare capacity going into 2025 and more
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      Borr Drilling: 3 Reasons To Look Beyond The Current Selloff
    • The Energy RealistThe Energy Realist
      ·2024-08-11

      Patterson-UTI Is Cash Flow Positive And Offers Asymmetric Exposure To A Rebound In Natural Gas

      Summary Patterson-UTI is cash flow positive despite U.S. oilfield activity being at a cyclical bottom. A rebound in natural gas drilling in 2025 will be a strong call on the company's premium equipment that is already in short supply. Even if gas drilling doesn't rebound soon, the generous buyback program should provide support for the stock price. lyash01 Background Patterson-UTI (NASDAQ:PTEN) is a U.S. land focused oilfield services company that offers both drilling and completion services. The merger w
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      Patterson-UTI Is Cash Flow Positive And Offers Asymmetric Exposure To A Rebound In Natural Gas
    • The Energy RealistThe Energy Realist
      ·2024-07-22

      SLB: The Market Doesn't Fully Appreciate The Growth Opportunities

      Summary SLB is not cheap but has been growing revenue and earnings at impressive rates. The market has been penalizing the company due to misunderstanding Saudi Arabia's shift from new offshore developments to the Jafurah unconventional gas field. SLB will benefit from the Saudi focus on Jafurah and the latest earnings report confirms the growth trend in the Middle East remains intact. The resumption of SLB's buyback program should be a further tailwind. JHVEPhoto Investment thesis SLB (NYSE:SLB), formerly Schlumberger, beat earnings yet again last Friday:
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      SLB: The Market Doesn't Fully Appreciate The Growth Opportunities
    • The Energy RealistThe Energy Realist
      ·2023-11-02

      Equinor: Not A Buy After The Earnings (Rating Downgrade)

      Summary Equinor's earnings are up sequentially but still down year-on-year, mostly due to the partial normalization of European natural gas prices. The company is also getting caught into the offshore wind problems and had to book an impairment related to its renewables business. Equinor stock is up 25% over the last six months, but in the near term further upside would require major disruptions in the LNG market. With European gas storage now full, the risk is probably more to the downside. AGLPhotoproductions/iStock via Getty Images Investment thesis Equinor ASA (NYSE:EQNR) is up +25% since my prior article from April (tot
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      Equinor: Not A Buy After The Earnings (Rating Downgrade)
    • The Energy RealistThe Energy Realist
      ·2023-10-26

      W&T Offshore: A Q3 Beat Could Be A Catalyst For This Undervalued Stock

      Summary Despite some current headwinds, W&T Offshore is significantly discounted relative to its underlying asset value. Going into Q3 earnings, the conditions appear favorable for a beat that could provide some catalyst action. In the medium term, higher natural gas prices and oil prices defending their current levels could help unlock additional value. James Pintar Investment thesis W&T Offshore (NYSE:WTI) is small and undervalued offshore oil and gas producer in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. Based on a recent precedent transaction, the implied value of W&T's hydrocarbon reserves could be at least $1.5 billion which significantly exceeds the enterprise value of $845 million. For the valuation gap to close, the share price would nee
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      W&T Offshore: A Q3 Beat Could Be A Catalyst For This Undervalued Stock
    • The Energy RealistThe Energy Realist
      ·2023-10-26

      AMLP: A Good Inflation Hedge With Lower Volatility Than Most Energy Investments

      Summary The U.S. energy landscape is bullish for midstream assets given rising gas production and exports. As a "hard asset", midstream infrastructure also offers a good inflation hedge. The Alerian MLP ETF offers diversified exposure to U.S. midstream MLPs without the administrative burden of a K-1. The ETF's yield will become more attractive as interest rates eventually peak. spooh Investment thesis If you believe energy prices and inflation will be higher for longer but prefer to avoid the volatility of upstream oil and gas equities, the Alerian MLP ETF (NYSEARCA:AMLP) may be an investment vehicle to consider - especially if you value income. AMLP offers diversified exposure to the common units of the master limited partnerships (or MLP
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      AMLP: A Good Inflation Hedge With Lower Volatility Than Most Energy Investments
    • The Energy RealistThe Energy Realist
      ·2023-10-16

      Exxon Mobil: Is It A Good Dividend Stock?

      Summary Exxon Mobil has been a reliable dividend player but that doesn't mean ex-ante the dividend was never at risk. The company's scale and integrated model offer significant diversification compared to upstream players but XOM is still a cyclical business. When purchasing XOM stock for income, the entry point will matter a lot more for the long-term total returns compared to a defensive stock. The Pioneer acquisition may be positive for the dividend to the extent it diversifies even further XOM's portfolio and improves cash flow stability through the industry cycles. Michael M. Santiago Is Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) a good dividend stock? The oil major made big news last week when it agreed to acquire Pioneer Natural Resources (
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      Exxon Mobil: Is It A Good Dividend Stock?
    • The Energy RealistThe Energy Realist
      ·2023-09-15

      Borr Drilling: The Jack-Ups Orderbook Is At 20-Year Lows

      nielubieklonuInvestment thesisBorr Drilling Limited (NYSE:BORR) is a highly levered offshore driller that specializes in modern jack-up rigs (used for drilling in shallow waters). I previously wrote about BORR in July 2022 when I opined on the refinancing problems the company was facing at the time would ultimately be resolved. This has largely played out with the stock up 150% since last summer: Data by YChartsThe strong performance has made BORR look like a momentum stock:Seeking AlphaHowever, I would contend that BORR remains a value play despite the run-up. The offshore services industry is in a se
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      Borr Drilling: The Jack-Ups Orderbook Is At 20-Year Lows
    • The Energy RealistThe Energy Realist
      ·2023-08-27

      Transocean: Let's Do The Convertible Bond Math

      designer491 Investment thesis I recently wrote about the improvement in Transocean's (NYSE:RIG) credit prospects and what it could mean for the equity: Transocean Stock's Credit Spreads Have Significantly Narrowed. One "watch area" that I identified were Transocean's convertible bonds: Transocean SEC Filings As I pointed out, all convertibles are now in the money and this may imply up to 20% dilution for the equity holders. Interestingly, during the subsequent
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      Transocean: Let's Do The Convertible Bond Math
       
       
       
       

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