$Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ Volume right now is running noticeably above the average from last week, even though we're only partway through the session. Still very early, but it's giving off the impression that institutional selling is underway. If that continues, the rest of the week could just chop sideways in a tight range while edging 5-10 points lower, similar to what happened around the February earnings report. Feels like there's a decent chance of seeing somewhat lower prices over the next couple of weeks.
Photonics is picking up some solid momentum today, moving alongside oil and Treasury yields. The setup does feel a bit like March again, but the bigger story here is the AI infrastructure buildout. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ raised its capex outlook recently and pointed out that around 40% of its $44B spending is going toward data centers and networking equipment. That explains why areas like optical networking and photonics keep getting attention. AI demand isn't just about chips anymore, the whole infrastructure stack needs upgrades. It looks like the market is starting to price in the next phase of the AI cycle.
$Alphabet(GOOGL)$ Honestly, the amount of shorting on this one feels like a joke at this point. Just look at how many services we all use, both directly and indirectly, that are powered by the $Alphabet(GOOG)$ ecosystem. They're clearly winning in their core areas. From where I stand, I think we could see a healthy and consistent upward trend going forward.
$Alphabet(GOOG)$ Looking at current prices versus one-year targets, the potential upside for Google appears to be in the 25% to 40% range. For Micron, the upside looks more like 50% to 100%. Both, of course, carry their own downside risks. I'm holding positions in both.
$Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ It seems Google might be streamlining its AI development process. The impression is they were previously cluttered with too many decision-makers. If that's the case, it could just be a matter of time before they become a leader in AI.
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Jensen Huang has increased his stake in Nebius to 9.3% as of July 13, according to an SEC filing. This move adds more attention to the AI infrastructure story. $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ shares moved higher after the disclosure, up around 3%. It seems the market is watching this area closely as AI demand expands beyond just chips into cloud infrastructure, compute capacity, and data centers.
$Micron Technology(MU)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ Earnings reports are coming up this week, and I think that could reignite the memory trade. The shorts had the upper hand for the past few weeks, but I'm looking for the bulls to take over from here.
I keep looking at $Micron Technology(MU)$ and think this could be one of those names we might regret not buying more of when sentiment was low. Memory remains one of the biggest bottlenecks in the AI infrastructure. Micron is down roughly 30% from its highs, yet HBM demand is fully booked through 2027, with strong visibility into 2028. The valuation is what stands out. $Micron Technology(MU)$ is trading around 5x forward earnings versus 20x trailing, which seems to price in a much worse slowdown than the actual supply picture suggests. Short-term pressure is real. After a big run, profit-taking is natural, and leverage unwinding adds extra volatility. But this sello
$Alphabet(GOOG)$ The company faced a similar situation a few years back, and the stock recovered shortly after. It feels like the media sometimes tries to stir up fear among investors.