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WstreetBoy

不看了我看不看它都要涨都要跌

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- WstreetBoyWstreetBoy
  ·2025-07-31
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- WstreetBoyWstreetBoy
  ·2025-07-03
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- WstreetBoyWstreetBoy
  ·2023-04-17
  $第一共和银行(FRC)$
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- WstreetBoyWstreetBoy
  ·2023-04-10
  $第一共和银行(FRC)$
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- WstreetBoyWstreetBoy
  ·2023-03-24
  $第一共和银行(FRC)$
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- WstreetBoyWstreetBoy
  ·2023-02-28
  nice
  Night Reading | How to seize significant opportunities in investing?
  赔率、胜率与合理仓位1/7“100-20”规律经常复盘过去一段时间交易纪录的投资者，一定有一个体会，账户盈利和亏损都是由赚得最多或亏得最多的一笔或几笔构成，具体几笔与持仓分散程度和持股周期有关。这是比
  Night Reading | How to seize significant opportunities in investing?
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- WstreetBoyWstreetBoy
  ·2021-05-06
  $Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$What fuck！
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23:23","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Night Reading | How to seize significant opportunities in investing?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116320153","media":"思想钢印","summary":"赔率、胜率与合理仓位1/7“100-20”规律经常复盘过去一段时间交易纪录的投资者，一定有一个体会，账户盈利和亏损都是由赚得最多或亏得最多的一笔或几笔构成，具体几笔与持仓分散程度和持股周期有关。这是比","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Odds, win rate and reasonable position<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30ef80cc1d747969b23f9fd049884f65\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1</b><b>/7</b></p><p><b>\"100-20\" rule</b></p><p>Investors who frequently review trading records over a period of time will surely have an understanding of this.<b>Account profits and losses are composed of the one or more transactions that make or lose the most money.</b>The specific transactions are related to the degree of diversification of holdings and the holding period.</p><p>This is even crueler than the Pareto principle.<b>“100-20”</b>Pattern:</p><p><b>100% of the excess profit (loss) comes from 20% of the trading volume; most of the remaining trades break even and are roughly the same as the index.</b>Unless it's ultra-short-term trading or quantitative funds, basically everyone does this.</p><p>There are only one or two trades that help you achieve your annual profit target, but those one or two trades that prevent you from reaching your target are also the reason you lost money. These two investments are what we usually call...<b>\"Win or lose\"</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/736b32f451aae9adcd9eacbd096ed7b6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Although you realize that most investments aren't a \"winner-loser\" once you reach a certain point, you don't know this beforehand.<b>Therefore, most of your investment decisions should be made cautiously with a \"win-lose\" mindset.</b>。</p><p>Understanding the relationship between wins and losses and ultimate returns allows you to establish the most basic stock selection criteria:</p><p><b>Assuming your annual return target is 15%, and the market rises 5% this year, then the winner will have to bear 10% of the entire account's return.</b></p><p>Assuming your maximum position in a single stock is an average of 40% per year, and each position is held for one year, the following criteria apply to stock selection that meets your return target:</p><p><b>1. It makes you only dare to invest in stocks with an average annual position of 20%, but with an expected annual return of 50%;</b></p><p><b>2. Stocks that make you dare to invest an average of 30% of your annual position, with an expected annual return of 33%;</b></p><p><b>3. Stocks that make you dare to invest an average of 40% of your annual position, with an expected annual return of 25%.</b></p><p>If the account's excess return is determined by the two most profitable stocks, then the expected return requirement is halved, and so on.</p><p>This basic stock selection criterion includes two of the simplest constraints:<b>Good investing either makes you dare to increase your position size (Buffett's).<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Either the expected return is high (to gamble on a reversal of the predicament).</b>。</p><p>First, we need to address a question: what is \"expected rate of return\"?</p><p><b>2/7</b></p><p><b>How to calculate the expected rate of return</b></p><p>Many people have studied the company, calculated its performance growth rate and valuation rationality, and believe that the company has twice the potential to fall short of its target price, thus considering it a stock that \"can rise 100% in a year\".</p><p>This statement is incorrect. We only calculated the stock's upside potential under the most ideal scenario, which is 100%, without considering the downside potential.</p><p>If the positive logic envisioned when buying doesn't materialize, where will the stock price fall?</p><p>In addition, the upward and downward probabilities must be considered in order to calculate...<b>Expected yield</b>：</p><p><b>(Upside potential * Probability of profit - Downside potential * Probability of loss) / Invested principal</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d73beb93ab2af8747252a5509e5ad82f\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"245\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Assuming the stock price is 10 yuan, and the marginal profit and loss are 10 yuan and -4 yuan, respectively, with probabilities of 50%, then the expected rate of return for this investment is:</p><p>（10*50%-4*50%）/10=30%</p><p>Of course, this is just a simplified formula. In actual investment, within the limit value, there are various possible investment outcomes, corresponding to different probabilities. However, as a standard for individual investors to select stocks, it is enough to only calculate the upward and downward space of the limit and assume that the win rate is 50%.</p><p>When calculating the expected rate of return, consider<b>Upside and downside spaces are essentially about judging the odds.</b>。</p><p><b>3/7</b></p><p><b>Odds are a limit</b></p><p>The concept of odds originates from gambling. The reason why gambling odds can be calculated is because:</p><p>1. There are only a few results;</p><p>2. Every outcome is a clear probability.</p><p>But stocks aren't like that—</p><p>As analyzed above, the odds of stock investment are not a definitive outcome, but rather the limit of the outcome, considering low-probability events, that is,<b>In the best-case scenario, how much can it rise? In the worst-case scenario, how much could it fall?</b></p><p>Ultimate upside potential refers to an optimistic scenario.<b>All the positive factors are reflected in the performance, with the target price corresponding to the highest optimistic valuation range that the market may give.</b>Many securities firms' research reports state that many people feel the target price is too high, but this is just an upper limit of optimism.</p><p>To determine the maximum downside potential, you need to determine what the performance level would be if the positive logic you believed failed to materialize, expenses were incurred, and the product encountered problems. In this situation, what would be the worst valuation level the market would assign in the past three years?</p><p>This shows that<b>Odds are a limit concept; they are a relatively certain and calculable value.</b>In contrast, winning rate is a probability and is vague, so calculating odds is the most crucial part of the overall investment process. You need to understand the following points about your investment target:</p><p><b>1. Core growth logic and main risk points</b></p><p><b>2. Understand the overall history and trends of the industry and the company's operations over the past few years.</b></p><p><b>3. Specific operating data for the best and worst periods in the past.</b></p><p><b>4. Market perceptions at different stages and the ultimate valuations given.</b></p><p>The more important function of calculating odds is to determine the purchase cost. If the odds of the target you are optimistic about are not sufficient—which is a very likely situation for good companies—then you can calculate what price it will fall to, and the odds will be appropriate.</p><p>So, how is the success rate of stock investment determined?</p><p><b>4/7</b></p><p><b>Win rate is a standard</b></p><p>As analyzed above, the odds of stock investment are the limit of the outcome and can therefore be calculated, but the winning rate of stock investment is too subjective.</p><p>A certain stock is currently priced at 10 yuan, and there are simply too many possibilities for its stock price a year from now.<b>The win rate describes the probability that a stock price will appear at each price level, which is obviously impossible to calculate.</b></p><p>Moreover, investors can terminate their investment at any time. Even if they incur a loss a year later, they cannot rule out the possibility of selling when they are profitable. In other words,<b>You can use strategies to lock in your win rate.</b>。</p><p>Therefore, the win rate here is an approximate probability, that is, the probability that profits may exceed the overall market gain one year later.</p><p>How do we determine this?</p><p>The success rate of a stock invested one year later is a conditional probability.<b>standard expression</b>Yes:</p><p><b>If I had bought countless of these stocks, what percentage of them would have risen a year later?</b></p><p>Therefore, strictly speaking, there is no way to calculate the probability of a stock, because every stock is unique.</p><p>But you can change your mind,<b>Stocks are different, but the stock selection criteria can be the same.</b>。</p><p>Therefore, the actual win rate is determined as follows:</p><p><b>1. Based on past profitable trading records, summarize a stock selection criterion with a high success rate and a criterion for when to buy, and the more specific the requirements, the better;</b></p><p><b>2. The more companies that meet this standard, the higher their success rate. Considering judgment errors and biases, the success rate can be considered to be 50%.</b></p><p>Stock selection criteria include:</p><p>1. Fixed industry characteristics, such as high-growth industries, consumer industries, cyclical industries, etc.</p><p>2. Company development stage or market capitalization characteristics</p><p>3. Other constraints such as competitive landscape and industry space are optional, but the more specific the better.</p><p>4. Growth logic, such as capacity addition, product category expansion, price increases, etc.</p><p>5. Growth rate requirements</p><p>6. Other personal preference requirements</p><p>Selection timing criteria include:</p><p>1. The location of the operating inflection point, either to the left or to the right.</p><p>2. Historical valuation position requirements</p><p>3. Catalysts such as financial reports and the impact of negative market events</p><p>4. Other personal preference requirements</p><p>In short,<b>Whether or not the specific win rate data \"meets a certain win rate criterion\" means that if it meets a given criterion, it can be considered a 50% win rate.</b></p><p>With the win rate (which is actually the stock selection timing criterion) and the odds, the minimum position that meets the expected return criterion is calculated using the method at the beginning.</p><p>So, is there still a maximum position requirement?</p><p>Yes, that's the Kelly formula.</p><p><b>5/7</b></p><p><b>Kelly formula requirements for position size</b></p><p>Many retail investors have the following two bad habits when it comes to position control:</p><p>Habit 1: Hold more than 50% of your position in investments with a high win rate or high odds.</p><p>Habit 2: Diversify your holdings; each holding is evenly distributed.</p><p>The problem with habit 2 is obvious. Through the relationship between \"rate of return, expected value, and position size\" analyzed earlier, we can see that different opportunities should be given different position sizes. If you are sure about the opportunity, you should increase the position size. If you are not sure about the opportunity, but have imagination, you are suitable for trying a small position.</p><p><b>\"Good company, good price\" should be followed by \"good position\".</b>Otherwise, your earnings will still be mediocre.</p><p>However, Habit 1 also fits the previous formula. Theoretically, as long as you have 15% of the expected value, you can invest in a stock entirely.</p><p>But,<b>The Kelly formula tells you that you should never invest in a single stock under any circumstances.</b>。</p><p>If a company on the verge of delisting wants to restructure, if it succeeds, its stock price can increase fivefold. If it fails, delisting is worthless. If you get insider information, there is a 99% chance of success. How much principal should you bet?</p><p>Obviously, under such favorable conditions, you shouldn't bet all your principal. Once you step on a 1% landmine, you're doomed.</p><p>There is an optimal ratio between position size and odds, which is the Kelly formula below (a simplified version for stocks):</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/934fbfcafdecb9475e1087c26d43ad67\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>I won't go into the specific principles; many articles have explained them. I'll just mention its conclusions:</p><p><b>If a stock has odds of 2:1 and a 50% win rate over the next year, the optimal percentage of your average position limit is 25%.</b>—The reason for the upper limit is that most people are overly optimistic about the odds and win rate.</p><p>If the reasonable minimum position calculated earlier is 33%, this investment opportunity should be temporarily abandoned, or the position should be built in batches, and the price should fall to a reasonable level before increasing the position, so that the average purchase cost meets the odds and return requirements.</p><p>So<b>Investment opportunities with odds below 2:1 are unlikely to meet both the expected return and the Kelly formula requirements, and should be abandoned.</b></p><p>Let's continue looking at the results of Kelly's formula:<b>If the odds are 3:1, that's 33% of the position; if the odds are 4:1, that's 37.5%.</b></p><p>Generally speaking, odds exceeding 4:1 usually indicate a restructuring, major innovation, cyclical reversal, or reversal of difficulties, making it difficult to guarantee a win rate above 50% (unless there is insider information), and positions cannot be increased.<b>Therefore, it is not advisable to use a position of more than 40% for most opportunities.</b></p><p>According to Kelly's formula,<b>With a 50% chance of winning, no matter how high the odds, the position size should not exceed 50%.</b></p><p>So what if you think the win rate is over 50%? Since the rise and fall of individual stocks largely depends on the index, which is an unexpected factor, even the best companies can be considered to have a 50% success rate within the year.</p><p>The conclusion is that the maximum position size should be 20% to 40%, and the upside potential should be more than twice the downside potential.</p><p>Obviously, in most investments, we will realize at some point that it is not a \"winner or loser\". So how should we handle it?</p><p><b>6/7</b></p><p><b>What if it's not a decisive factor?</b></p><p>Of course, most investments are not ultimately \"winners and losers,\" usually for the following reasons:</p><p><b>Reason 1: The investment logic did not materialize as you expected.</b></p><p><b>Reason 2: Your purchase cost is too high.</b></p><p><b>Reason 3: Selling too early during an upward trend, or failing to seize the opportunity to increase positions at low prices.</b></p><p><b>Reason 4: Problems with fund allocation and insufficient positions.</b></p><p><b>Reason 5: Market style is shifting in a direction unfavorable to you.</b></p><p>The first two reasons are your misjudgment.<b>The first reason is a mistake in buying logic and judging the upside potential; the second reason is a mistake in judging the odds.</b></p><p><b>The third reason is the operational factor; the \"decisive factor\" is that great effort can produce miracles.</b>There are some companies you have great faith in that have plummeted to unbelievable prices during special times. You should dare to increase your position to the maximum. Even during periods of heavy investment and price increases, it's important to hold onto your position.</p><p><b>The fourth reason is the issue of fund allocation.</b>When opportunities arise, money is wasted on \"non-winning\" opportunities.</p><p>Opportunities for success or failure are unevenly distributed, requiring patience and decision-making courage. Typical opportunities for success or failure in 2022 are concentrated in two stages:</p><p><b>1. Opportunities arising from the drop</b>Most growth stocks in late April, and liquor and Hong Kong stocks in late October.</p><p><b>2. Opportunities for price increases</b>Coal stocks from January to April, and new energy stocks from May to August.</p><p>As long as you have a certain position to seize any of these opportunities and don't make the major mistake of buying at high prices, you can significantly outperform the market last year.</p><p>Conversely, if you determine that the investment is determined not to be a \"critical transaction,\" the signs are:</p><p><b>1. The logic changed.</b></p><p><b>2. The stock price has already risen significantly, missing the opportunity to increase positions.</b></p><p>If these two signs appear, it's a \"non-winner-loser trade,\" and the investment objective should also change.<b>The most important thing is to prevent it from becoming the \"decisive loss\" in the \"winner-loser\" again.</b></p><p>Then the operational strategy becomes quite obvious.<b>Profits should be realized promptly, and losses should be stopped promptly.</b></p><p>The fifth reason for the sole exception is that the expected returns caused by market style have not been realized, while the fundamental logic of the company remains unchanged.<b>It means that the odds are higher, but it also means that you need more time to realize the return, which is equivalent to moving the \"outcome\" opportunity to the next stage, which is to hold the stock unchanged.</b></p><p>If a \"winner-loser\" return has already been achieved, especially in the short term, and the stock price has usually risen too high, it needs to be treated as a new investment, the expected return, odds and win rate reassessed, and the position reallocated.</p><p><b>7/7</b></p><p><b>Every investment must meet the criteria of \"winning or losing\".</b></p><p><b>Most people's risk appetite habitually remains at a fixed level, and therefore they are unable to dare to increase their positions to significantly exceed the normal level when a decisive opportunity arises.</b></p><p>The remaining small group of people with a high risk appetite often expose the risk of high positions to opportunities that are not winners or losers.</p><p><b>Most investments can be \"winners and losers\"—either maximum profits or fatal losses. Therefore, any investment requires a complete plan from the outset.</b>It's better to miss out than to make a mistake, and not to trade arbitrarily. Before buying, ask yourself a few questions:</p><p>1. Does it fit your past high-win company model? What is its maximum upside and downside potential during your holding period?</p><p>2. What kind of position size would match the expected rate of return you calculated to meet the return requirements for winning and losing?</p><p>3. What is the maximum position size calculated based on the Kelly formula for the above odds and win rate?</p><p>4. Once you reach your maximum position, you will make several purchases. How can you simultaneously achieve a low purchase cost and a suitable position size?</p><p>5. Under what circumstances do you determine that it is not a \"winner-loser\" and convert it into a general investment?</p><p>6. If there is a sharp drop midway through, what channels do you have to verify your judgment of the fundamentals? What would you do if it fell below the maximum downside potential you envisioned?</p><p>Without Apple, Buffett's investments in his later years would have been very mediocre. You can think of it as good luck, but you can also think of it as an inevitability of the investment system. Even without Apple, there would be bananas.</p><p>If a great opportunity is a big fish, then an investment system is a net.<b>The decisive opportunity may seem sudden, but it is actually because you carefully choose every investment based on the criteria of \"winning or losing\".</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sxgy","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Night Reading | How to seize significant opportunities in investing?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNight Reading | How to seize significant opportunities in investing?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">思想钢印</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-02-27 23:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Odds, win rate and reasonable position<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30ef80cc1d747969b23f9fd049884f65\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1</b><b>/7</b></p><p><b>\"100-20\" rule</b></p><p>Investors who frequently review trading records over a period of time will surely have an understanding of this.<b>Account profits and losses are composed of the one or more transactions that make or lose the most money.</b>The specific transactions are related to the degree of diversification of holdings and the holding period.</p><p>This is even crueler than the Pareto principle.<b>“100-20”</b>Pattern:</p><p><b>100% of the excess profit (loss) comes from 20% of the trading volume; most of the remaining trades break even and are roughly the same as the index.</b>Unless it's ultra-short-term trading or quantitative funds, basically everyone does this.</p><p>There are only one or two trades that help you achieve your annual profit target, but those one or two trades that prevent you from reaching your target are also the reason you lost money. These two investments are what we usually call...<b>\"Win or lose\"</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/736b32f451aae9adcd9eacbd096ed7b6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Although you realize that most investments aren't a \"winner-loser\" once you reach a certain point, you don't know this beforehand.<b>Therefore, most of your investment decisions should be made cautiously with a \"win-lose\" mindset.</b>。</p><p>Understanding the relationship between wins and losses and ultimate returns allows you to establish the most basic stock selection criteria:</p><p><b>Assuming your annual return target is 15%, and the market rises 5% this year, then the winner will have to bear 10% of the entire account's return.</b></p><p>Assuming your maximum position in a single stock is an average of 40% per year, and each position is held for one year, the following criteria apply to stock selection that meets your return target:</p><p><b>1. It makes you only dare to invest in stocks with an average annual position of 20%, but with an expected annual return of 50%;</b></p><p><b>2. Stocks that make you dare to invest an average of 30% of your annual position, with an expected annual return of 33%;</b></p><p><b>3. Stocks that make you dare to invest an average of 40% of your annual position, with an expected annual return of 25%.</b></p><p>If the account's excess return is determined by the two most profitable stocks, then the expected return requirement is halved, and so on.</p><p>This basic stock selection criterion includes two of the simplest constraints:<b>Good investing either makes you dare to increase your position size (Buffett's).<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Either the expected return is high (to gamble on a reversal of the predicament).</b>。</p><p>First, we need to address a question: what is \"expected rate of return\"?</p><p><b>2/7</b></p><p><b>How to calculate the expected rate of return</b></p><p>Many people have studied the company, calculated its performance growth rate and valuation rationality, and believe that the company has twice the potential to fall short of its target price, thus considering it a stock that \"can rise 100% in a year\".</p><p>This statement is incorrect. We only calculated the stock's upside potential under the most ideal scenario, which is 100%, without considering the downside potential.</p><p>If the positive logic envisioned when buying doesn't materialize, where will the stock price fall?</p><p>In addition, the upward and downward probabilities must be considered in order to calculate...<b>Expected yield</b>：</p><p><b>(Upside potential * Probability of profit - Downside potential * Probability of loss) / Invested principal</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d73beb93ab2af8747252a5509e5ad82f\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"245\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Assuming the stock price is 10 yuan, and the marginal profit and loss are 10 yuan and -4 yuan, respectively, with probabilities of 50%, then the expected rate of return for this investment is:</p><p>（10*50%-4*50%）/10=30%</p><p>Of course, this is just a simplified formula. In actual investment, within the limit value, there are various possible investment outcomes, corresponding to different probabilities. However, as a standard for individual investors to select stocks, it is enough to only calculate the upward and downward space of the limit and assume that the win rate is 50%.</p><p>When calculating the expected rate of return, consider<b>Upside and downside spaces are essentially about judging the odds.</b>。</p><p><b>3/7</b></p><p><b>Odds are a limit</b></p><p>The concept of odds originates from gambling. The reason why gambling odds can be calculated is because:</p><p>1. There are only a few results;</p><p>2. Every outcome is a clear probability.</p><p>But stocks aren't like that—</p><p>As analyzed above, the odds of stock investment are not a definitive outcome, but rather the limit of the outcome, considering low-probability events, that is,<b>In the best-case scenario, how much can it rise? In the worst-case scenario, how much could it fall?</b></p><p>Ultimate upside potential refers to an optimistic scenario.<b>All the positive factors are reflected in the performance, with the target price corresponding to the highest optimistic valuation range that the market may give.</b>Many securities firms' research reports state that many people feel the target price is too high, but this is just an upper limit of optimism.</p><p>To determine the maximum downside potential, you need to determine what the performance level would be if the positive logic you believed failed to materialize, expenses were incurred, and the product encountered problems. In this situation, what would be the worst valuation level the market would assign in the past three years?</p><p>This shows that<b>Odds are a limit concept; they are a relatively certain and calculable value.</b>In contrast, winning rate is a probability and is vague, so calculating odds is the most crucial part of the overall investment process. You need to understand the following points about your investment target:</p><p><b>1. Core growth logic and main risk points</b></p><p><b>2. Understand the overall history and trends of the industry and the company's operations over the past few years.</b></p><p><b>3. Specific operating data for the best and worst periods in the past.</b></p><p><b>4. Market perceptions at different stages and the ultimate valuations given.</b></p><p>The more important function of calculating odds is to determine the purchase cost. If the odds of the target you are optimistic about are not sufficient—which is a very likely situation for good companies—then you can calculate what price it will fall to, and the odds will be appropriate.</p><p>So, how is the success rate of stock investment determined?</p><p><b>4/7</b></p><p><b>Win rate is a standard</b></p><p>As analyzed above, the odds of stock investment are the limit of the outcome and can therefore be calculated, but the winning rate of stock investment is too subjective.</p><p>A certain stock is currently priced at 10 yuan, and there are simply too many possibilities for its stock price a year from now.<b>The win rate describes the probability that a stock price will appear at each price level, which is obviously impossible to calculate.</b></p><p>Moreover, investors can terminate their investment at any time. Even if they incur a loss a year later, they cannot rule out the possibility of selling when they are profitable. In other words,<b>You can use strategies to lock in your win rate.</b>。</p><p>Therefore, the win rate here is an approximate probability, that is, the probability that profits may exceed the overall market gain one year later.</p><p>How do we determine this?</p><p>The success rate of a stock invested one year later is a conditional probability.<b>standard expression</b>Yes:</p><p><b>If I had bought countless of these stocks, what percentage of them would have risen a year later?</b></p><p>Therefore, strictly speaking, there is no way to calculate the probability of a stock, because every stock is unique.</p><p>But you can change your mind,<b>Stocks are different, but the stock selection criteria can be the same.</b>。</p><p>Therefore, the actual win rate is determined as follows:</p><p><b>1. Based on past profitable trading records, summarize a stock selection criterion with a high success rate and a criterion for when to buy, and the more specific the requirements, the better;</b></p><p><b>2. The more companies that meet this standard, the higher their success rate. Considering judgment errors and biases, the success rate can be considered to be 50%.</b></p><p>Stock selection criteria include:</p><p>1. Fixed industry characteristics, such as high-growth industries, consumer industries, cyclical industries, etc.</p><p>2. Company development stage or market capitalization characteristics</p><p>3. Other constraints such as competitive landscape and industry space are optional, but the more specific the better.</p><p>4. Growth logic, such as capacity addition, product category expansion, price increases, etc.</p><p>5. Growth rate requirements</p><p>6. Other personal preference requirements</p><p>Selection timing criteria include:</p><p>1. The location of the operating inflection point, either to the left or to the right.</p><p>2. Historical valuation position requirements</p><p>3. Catalysts such as financial reports and the impact of negative market events</p><p>4. Other personal preference requirements</p><p>In short,<b>Whether or not the specific win rate data \"meets a certain win rate criterion\" means that if it meets a given criterion, it can be considered a 50% win rate.</b></p><p>With the win rate (which is actually the stock selection timing criterion) and the odds, the minimum position that meets the expected return criterion is calculated using the method at the beginning.</p><p>So, is there still a maximum position requirement?</p><p>Yes, that's the Kelly formula.</p><p><b>5/7</b></p><p><b>Kelly formula requirements for position size</b></p><p>Many retail investors have the following two bad habits when it comes to position control:</p><p>Habit 1: Hold more than 50% of your position in investments with a high win rate or high odds.</p><p>Habit 2: Diversify your holdings; each holding is evenly distributed.</p><p>The problem with habit 2 is obvious. Through the relationship between \"rate of return, expected value, and position size\" analyzed earlier, we can see that different opportunities should be given different position sizes. If you are sure about the opportunity, you should increase the position size. If you are not sure about the opportunity, but have imagination, you are suitable for trying a small position.</p><p><b>\"Good company, good price\" should be followed by \"good position\".</b>Otherwise, your earnings will still be mediocre.</p><p>However, Habit 1 also fits the previous formula. Theoretically, as long as you have 15% of the expected value, you can invest in a stock entirely.</p><p>But,<b>The Kelly formula tells you that you should never invest in a single stock under any circumstances.</b>。</p><p>If a company on the verge of delisting wants to restructure, if it succeeds, its stock price can increase fivefold. If it fails, delisting is worthless. If you get insider information, there is a 99% chance of success. How much principal should you bet?</p><p>Obviously, under such favorable conditions, you shouldn't bet all your principal. Once you step on a 1% landmine, you're doomed.</p><p>There is an optimal ratio between position size and odds, which is the Kelly formula below (a simplified version for stocks):</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/934fbfcafdecb9475e1087c26d43ad67\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>I won't go into the specific principles; many articles have explained them. I'll just mention its conclusions:</p><p><b>If a stock has odds of 2:1 and a 50% win rate over the next year, the optimal percentage of your average position limit is 25%.</b>—The reason for the upper limit is that most people are overly optimistic about the odds and win rate.</p><p>If the reasonable minimum position calculated earlier is 33%, this investment opportunity should be temporarily abandoned, or the position should be built in batches, and the price should fall to a reasonable level before increasing the position, so that the average purchase cost meets the odds and return requirements.</p><p>So<b>Investment opportunities with odds below 2:1 are unlikely to meet both the expected return and the Kelly formula requirements, and should be abandoned.</b></p><p>Let's continue looking at the results of Kelly's formula:<b>If the odds are 3:1, that's 33% of the position; if the odds are 4:1, that's 37.5%.</b></p><p>Generally speaking, odds exceeding 4:1 usually indicate a restructuring, major innovation, cyclical reversal, or reversal of difficulties, making it difficult to guarantee a win rate above 50% (unless there is insider information), and positions cannot be increased.<b>Therefore, it is not advisable to use a position of more than 40% for most opportunities.</b></p><p>According to Kelly's formula,<b>With a 50% chance of winning, no matter how high the odds, the position size should not exceed 50%.</b></p><p>So what if you think the win rate is over 50%? Since the rise and fall of individual stocks largely depends on the index, which is an unexpected factor, even the best companies can be considered to have a 50% success rate within the year.</p><p>The conclusion is that the maximum position size should be 20% to 40%, and the upside potential should be more than twice the downside potential.</p><p>Obviously, in most investments, we will realize at some point that it is not a \"winner or loser\". So how should we handle it?</p><p><b>6/7</b></p><p><b>What if it's not a decisive factor?</b></p><p>Of course, most investments are not ultimately \"winners and losers,\" usually for the following reasons:</p><p><b>Reason 1: The investment logic did not materialize as you expected.</b></p><p><b>Reason 2: Your purchase cost is too high.</b></p><p><b>Reason 3: Selling too early during an upward trend, or failing to seize the opportunity to increase positions at low prices.</b></p><p><b>Reason 4: Problems with fund allocation and insufficient positions.</b></p><p><b>Reason 5: Market style is shifting in a direction unfavorable to you.</b></p><p>The first two reasons are your misjudgment.<b>The first reason is a mistake in buying logic and judging the upside potential; the second reason is a mistake in judging the odds.</b></p><p><b>The third reason is the operational factor; the \"decisive factor\" is that great effort can produce miracles.</b>There are some companies you have great faith in that have plummeted to unbelievable prices during special times. You should dare to increase your position to the maximum. Even during periods of heavy investment and price increases, it's important to hold onto your position.</p><p><b>The fourth reason is the issue of fund allocation.</b>When opportunities arise, money is wasted on \"non-winning\" opportunities.</p><p>Opportunities for success or failure are unevenly distributed, requiring patience and decision-making courage. Typical opportunities for success or failure in 2022 are concentrated in two stages:</p><p><b>1. Opportunities arising from the drop</b>Most growth stocks in late April, and liquor and Hong Kong stocks in late October.</p><p><b>2. Opportunities for price increases</b>Coal stocks from January to April, and new energy stocks from May to August.</p><p>As long as you have a certain position to seize any of these opportunities and don't make the major mistake of buying at high prices, you can significantly outperform the market last year.</p><p>Conversely, if you determine that the investment is determined not to be a \"critical transaction,\" the signs are:</p><p><b>1. The logic changed.</b></p><p><b>2. The stock price has already risen significantly, missing the opportunity to increase positions.</b></p><p>If these two signs appear, it's a \"non-winner-loser trade,\" and the investment objective should also change.<b>The most important thing is to prevent it from becoming the \"decisive loss\" in the \"winner-loser\" again.</b></p><p>Then the operational strategy becomes quite obvious.<b>Profits should be realized promptly, and losses should be stopped promptly.</b></p><p>The fifth reason for the sole exception is that the expected returns caused by market style have not been realized, while the fundamental logic of the company remains unchanged.<b>It means that the odds are higher, but it also means that you need more time to realize the return, which is equivalent to moving the \"outcome\" opportunity to the next stage, which is to hold the stock unchanged.</b></p><p>If a \"winner-loser\" return has already been achieved, especially in the short term, and the stock price has usually risen too high, it needs to be treated as a new investment, the expected return, odds and win rate reassessed, and the position reallocated.</p><p><b>7/7</b></p><p><b>Every investment must meet the criteria of \"winning or losing\".</b></p><p><b>Most people's risk appetite habitually remains at a fixed level, and therefore they are unable to dare to increase their positions to significantly exceed the normal level when a decisive opportunity arises.</b></p><p>The remaining small group of people with a high risk appetite often expose the risk of high positions to opportunities that are not winners or losers.</p><p><b>Most investments can be \"winners and losers\"—either maximum profits or fatal losses. Therefore, any investment requires a complete plan from the outset.</b>It's better to miss out than to make a mistake, and not to trade arbitrarily. Before buying, ask yourself a few questions:</p><p>1. Does it fit your past high-win company model? What is its maximum upside and downside potential during your holding period?</p><p>2. What kind of position size would match the expected rate of return you calculated to meet the return requirements for winning and losing?</p><p>3. What is the maximum position size calculated based on the Kelly formula for the above odds and win rate?</p><p>4. Once you reach your maximum position, you will make several purchases. How can you simultaneously achieve a low purchase cost and a suitable position size?</p><p>5. Under what circumstances do you determine that it is not a \"winner-loser\" and convert it into a general investment?</p><p>6. If there is a sharp drop midway through, what channels do you have to verify your judgment of the fundamentals? What would you do if it fell below the maximum downside potential you envisioned?</p><p>Without Apple, Buffett's investments in his later years would have been very mediocre. You can think of it as good luck, but you can also think of it as an inevitability of the investment system. Even without Apple, there would be bananas.</p><p>If a great opportunity is a big fish, then an investment system is a net.<b>The decisive opportunity may seem sudden, but it is actually because you carefully choose every investment based on the criteria of \"winning or losing\".</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/rHZkSN7qNdePt6GnlT85zw\">思想钢印</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68f18a297e419bae3cc0320b6d8ff4e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/rHZkSN7qNdePt6GnlT85zw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116320153","content_text":"赔率、胜率与合理仓位1/7“100-20”规律经常复盘过去一段时间交易纪录的投资者，一定有一个体会，账户盈利和亏损都是由赚得最多或亏得最多的一笔或几笔构成，具体几笔与持仓分散程度和持股周期有关。这是比二八原则更残酷的“100-20”规律：100%的超额收益（亏损）来源于20%的交易额，其余大部分交易都是盈亏相抵和指数差不多，除非是超短线交易或者是量化基金，基本上每个人都是如此。让你达成年度收益目标的交易，就是那么一两笔，让你无法实现目标，也是因为那亏损的一两笔。这一两笔投资，就是平时说的“胜负手”。虽然大部分投资到一定时候，你就意识到它不是“胜负手”，但事先你并不知道，所以你的大部分投资决策都要以“胜负手”的心态谨慎做出。理解了胜负手与最终收益的关系，就可以让你建立一个最基础的选股标准：假设你一年的收益目标是15%，假设大盘今年上涨5%，那么，胜负手就要承担整个账户10%的收益。假设你平时单支股票最大持仓为年平均四成仓，假设每笔持仓一年，那么符合收益目标的选股，有以下的标准：1、让你只敢上年平均20%仓位的股票，但一年预期收益率为50%；2、让你敢上年平均三成仓位的股票，一年预期收益率为33%；3、让你敢上年平均四成仓位的股票，一年预期收益率为25%如果账户超额收益由盈利最高的两支股票决定，那这个预期收益率的要求就减半，以此类推。这个基础选股标准包括两个最简单的约束条件：好的投资，要么让你敢上仓位（巴菲特的苹果），要么预期收益率高（博困境反转）。首先，我们要解决一个问题，什么叫“预期收益率”？2/7如何计算预期收益率很多人研究了公司，计算了业绩增速，估值合理性，觉得公司离目标价有一倍空间，就认为这是一个“一年能涨100%”的股票。这个说法是错的，刚才只计算了这个股票最理想的情况下，向上的空间是100%，还没有考虑向下的空间，即：如果买入时设想的那些利好逻辑没有兑现，那股价会跌到哪里？此外还要考虑向上和向下的概率，才能计算出预期收益率：（向上空间*盈利概率-向下空间*亏损概率）/投入本金假设股价10元，极限盈利和极限亏损为10元和 -4元，概率各为50%，那么这笔投资的预期收益率为：（10*50%-4*50%）/10=30%当然，这只是一个简化公式，实际投资中，在极限值以内，投资结果有各种可能，对应不同的概率，但作为个人投资者选股的标准，只计算极限向上向下空间，并认为胜率为50%，也够了。计算预期收益率时要看向上空间和向下空间，实际上就是判断赔率。3/7赔率是一个极限赔率的概念源自博彩，博彩的赔率之所以能够计算出来，是因为：1、结果就几个；2、每一个结果都是明确的概率。但股票不是这样——正如上面分析的，股票投资的赔率不是明确的结果，而是结果的极限，考虑的是小概率事件，即，在最好的情况下，能涨多少；最差的情况下，能跌多少？极限向上空间，就是乐观情况下，所有的利好都兑现在业绩上，市场可能给予的最高乐观估值区间对应的目标价，很多券商研报都会给出，很多人觉得目标价太高，但这只是一个乐观的空间上限而已。极限向下空间，需要判断如果你认为的那些利好逻辑都没有兑现，费用又花出去了，现在的产品又出现了问题，这种情况下，业绩大概在什么水平，近三年的历史中，这种情况下市场最差给什么样的估值水平。从这一点可以看出，赔率是极限概念，是一个相对确定的可计算的值，相比之下，胜率是一个概率，是模糊的，所以计算赔率是整体投资过程中最关键的一环，需要你对投资对象了解以下几点：1、核心增长逻辑和主要风险点2、了解行业和公司过去几年经营的整体历程和趋势3、过去最好和最差的时期，经营的具体数据4、市场在不同阶段的看法，给出的极限估值计算赔率更重要的作用是判断买入成本，如果你看好的标的赔率不够——这是好公司非常可能出现的情况，那你就可以算一算，要跌到什么价格，赔率就合适了。那么，股票投资的胜率又是如何确定的呢？4/7胜率是一个标准正如上面分析的，股票投资的赔率是结果的极限，因此可以被计算，但股票投资的胜率就太主观了。某股票现价10元， 1年后的股价可能性实在是太多，胜率就是描述股价在每一个价位上出现的概率，这显然是无法计算的。更何况，投资者可以随时终止，就算一年后它是亏的，也不排除你中途在盈利的时候卖出，也就是说，你可以用策略去锁定胜率。所以这里的胜率是一个近似的概率，即一年后，盈利或超过大盘涨幅的概率。这怎么判断呢？某一个股票投资一年后的胜率，是一个条件概率，它的标准表达是：如果我买过无数支这样的股票，它们中一年后上涨的情况占比是多少？所以严格的说，没有办法计算该股票的概率，因为每一支股票都是独一无二的。但你可改变一下思路，股票是不一样的，但选股标准可以是一样的。所以实际胜率是这样判断的：1、从过去赚钱的交易记录中，总结出一个胜率较高的选股标准和买入时点的标准，要求越具体越好；2、越符合这个标准的公司，越拥有较高的胜率，考虑到判断误差和偏差，就可以认为胜率为50%。选股标准包括：1、固定的行业特征，比如高景气度行业，消费行业，周期行业等等2、公司发展阶段或市值特征3、竞争格局、行业空间等其他约束条件，可以不用，但通常越具体越好4、成长逻辑，比如产能投放，品类扩张，价格上涨，等等5、增速要求6、其他个人喜好的要求选择时机标准包括：1、经营拐点的位置，左侧或右侧2、历史估值位置要求3、财报、市场利空事件冲击等催化剂4、其他个人喜好的要求总之，把具体的胜率数据变成“符合某个胜率的标准”的是与否，符合某一个既定标准的，就可以认为是50%胜率。有了胜率（实际上是选股择时标准）和赔率，就按开头的方法计算，确定符合预期收益率标准的最低仓位了。那么，是不是还有最大仓位要求呢？有的，那就是凯利公式。5/7凯利公式对仓位的要求很多散户在仓位控制上有下面两个不太好的习惯：习惯1、在胜率较高或赔率较高的投资上，持有超过50%的仓位习惯2、分散持仓，每一笔持仓都很平均习惯2的问题很明显，通过前面分析的“收益率、期待值、仓位”三者的关系，可以看到，不同的机会应该给予不同的仓位，看准了，就要加大仓位干，看不准，但有想象力，才适合小仓位试。“好公司，好价格”后面还要再加一个“好仓位”，否则，你的收益仍然会很平庸。但习惯1也符合前面的公式，理论上说，只要15%的期待值，就可以全仓一个股票。但是，凯利公式告诉你，任何情况下，都不能全仓一个股票。假如一家濒临退市的公司要重组，如果成功股价可以翻五倍，如果失败就退市一文不值，你得到内线消息，99%的概率会成功，你应该押多少本金呢？显然在这样优越的条件下，你也不应该押上全部的本金，一旦你踩上1%的雷，就万劫不复了。仓位和赔率胜率本身是有最优比例的，就是下面的凯利公式（针对股票的简化版）：具体的原理我就不介绍了，很多文章都有介绍，只说它的结论：如果一支股票未来一年是2:1的赔率，50%的胜率，你的平均仓位上限最佳比例是25%——之所以是上限，需要考虑到大部分人对赔率和胜率判断过于乐观。如果前面计算出的合理仓位下限是33%，这笔投资机会就应该被暂时放弃，或者分批建仓，等跌到合理价格再加仓，让平均买入成本符合赔率和收益率要求。所以低于2:1赔率的投资机会，很难同时满足预期收益率和凯利公式的要求，都应该被放弃。继续看凯利公式的结果：如果是3:1的赔率，那就是33%的仓位，如果是4:1的赔率，那就是37.5%。一般而言，超过4:1的赔率，通常是博重组、重大创新、周期反转或困境反转，胜率就很难保证50%以上（除非有内幕消息），仓位也提不上去，所以绝大部分机会都不宜用4成以上的仓位。根据凯利公式，在50%的胜率机会下，无论多么大的赔率，仓位都不能超过50%。那么如果你认为胜率超过50%呢？由于个股的涨跌很大程度上取决于指数，而指数是预期之外的因素，所以再优秀的公司，年度以内都可以看成50%的胜率。结论就是，最大仓位就是两成到四成仓位，并要求向上空间是向下空间的2倍以上。很明显，大部分投资，我们都会在某一个时刻意识到它不是“胜负手”，那我们该怎么处理呢？6/7不是胜负手怎么办？当然，大部分投资最终都不会是“胜负手”，通常有以下原因：原因1、投资逻辑没有如你预期的实现原因2、你的买入成本过高原因3、上涨过程中过早卖出，或没有抓住低价加仓的机会原因4、资金分配出问题，仓位不够原因5、市场风格向对你不利的方向偏离前两个原因是你判断错误，原因一是买入逻辑和向上空间判断失误，原因二是赔率判断失误。原因三是操作的因素，“胜负手”是大力出奇迹，有一些你很有信仰的公司，在特殊时候跌到匪夷所思的价格，要敢于加到最大仓位；在重仓上涨的过程中，也要拿得住。原因四是资金分配的问题，在机会出现时，资金浪费在“非胜负手”的机会上。胜负手机会是分布不均的，需要有耐心，也要敢于决策，2022年典型的胜负手机会，集中出现在两个阶段：1、跌出来的机会：4月下旬的大部分成长股，10月下旬的白酒和港股2、涨出来的机会：1~4月的煤炭股，5~8月的新能源板块只要有一定仓位抓住其中的任何一个机会，并且没有高位接盘的重大错误，去年都可以明显跑赢大盘。相反，如果你判断该笔投资已确定无法成为“关键交易”，标志在于：1、逻辑变了2、股价涨幅已大，错过上仓位的时机如果出现了这两个标志，就是“非胜负手交易”，投资目标也要变，最重要的是防止它重新变成“胜负手”中的“决定性亏损”。那么操作思路就很明显了，盈利要及时兑现，亏损要及时止损。唯一例外的原因五，市场风格造成的预期收益没有实现，而企业基本面逻辑不变，它既代表赔率变高，也意味着你需要更长的时间去实现这个收益，相当于把“胜负手”的机会移到下一阶段，那就是持股不变。如果已经实现了“胜负手”的收益，特别是短期内实现，通常股价涨幅已经偏高，就需要当成一笔新的投资，重新评估预期收益、赔率和胜率，重新分配仓位。7/7每一笔投资都要符合“胜负手”的标准大部分人的偏好风险都习惯性地维持在一个固定的水平，因而无法在决定性的机会来临时，敢于把仓位加到大幅超过正常水平；剩下的小部分风险偏好较高的人，又常常会把高仓位风险暴露在非胜负手的机会上。大部分投资都可能成为“胜负手”——可能是最大盈利，也可能是致命亏损，所以任何投资从一开始就需要有完整计划，宁可错过，不可做错，不能随意交易，在买入之前，要问自己几个问题：1、它是否符合你过去的高胜率公司模型？它在你的持股期间的最大上升空间和下跌空间是多少？2、你算出来的预期收益率与什么样的仓位配合，才符合胜负手的收益要求？3、上述赔率和胜率根据凯利公式算出来的最大仓位是多少？4、达到最大仓位，你将分几笔买入，如何同时满足较低的买入成本和合适的仓位？5、什么情况下，你判断它不是“胜负手”，转换成一般的投资？6、如果中途大跌，你有什么渠道去验证你对基本面的判断？如果跌破你设想的最大下跌空间，你怎么办？如果没有苹果，巴菲特晚年的投资就变得非常平庸，你可以认为是好运气，但也可以认为是投资体系的必然，没有苹果也会有香蕉。如果说大机会是一条大鱼，投资体系就是一张网，决定性的机会看似突如其来，实际上是因为你每一笔投资都用“胜负手”的标准去谨慎选择。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4565,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":105250285,"gmtCreate":1620308282447,"gmtModify":1704341700472,"author":{"id":"180489801557520","authorId":"180489801557520","name":"WstreetBoy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67ffcee2a6d73f35b1d68c916a7e6856","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"180489801557520","idStr":"180489801557520"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLRY\">$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$</a>What fuck！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLRY\">$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$</a>What fuck！","text":"$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$What fuck！","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9695bc5da27e9195f1d09b05ccd2a82","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/105250285","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7299,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}