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Trend System Implement
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鑫鑫洋
鑫鑫洋
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2025-06-05
100💵
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鑫鑫洋
鑫鑫洋
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2025-04-25
$TSLA 20250516 300.0 CALL 20250516 300.0 CALL$
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鑫鑫洋
鑫鑫洋
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2025-03-05
$TSLA 20250321 250.0 PUT 20250321 250.0 PUT$
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鑫鑫洋
鑫鑫洋
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2025-03-05
$TSLA 20250321 250.0 PUT 20250321 250.0 PUT$
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鑫鑫洋
鑫鑫洋
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2025-03-05
$TSLA 20250321 250.0 PUT 20250321 250.0 PUT$
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鑫鑫洋
鑫鑫洋
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2020-11-26
ThanksgivingDay Happy!
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鑫鑫洋
鑫鑫洋
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2020-06-16
.....……
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鑫鑫洋
鑫鑫洋
·
2020-05-29
Not bad,worth reading
迷人的小可愛!
@鑫鑫洋:
這隻名叫NIKA的小貓最近可受歡迎了,已經在網絡上積累了百萬粉絲! 它出生於法國,天生的半邊臉孔灰色,半邊臉孔純黑,看起來又酷又科幻!@哆啦Ella媽來瞧瞧人家這孩子咋生的太有創意了![捂臉]
迷人的小可愛!
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鑫鑫洋
鑫鑫洋
·
2020-05-29
Not bad,worth reading
@一航Rex:
小白投資美股如何入門 首先,先去了解一些美股的運行機制,國外的現狀以及與國內A股的區別。 然後纔是考慮怎麼入門。錢什麼時候賺都不晚,錢也是賺不完的。我們逛個淘寶都要貨比拼多多,好歹拼多多還能給你點優惠券。炒股票這種直接可能造成轎車變單車的事情,還是瞭解清楚再說。 先科普一下,美股這個市場的特色以及與A股的不同點,然後纔是怎麼入門。 1.美股交易是一個T+0市場。什麼叫T+0,T+0就是隨買隨賣,美股支持你在開市時間內無限制的交易自己手中的股票,購買的股票,下一秒就可以賣出。對應A股,A股是T+1,就是今天買的股票,要下一個工作日才能賣出。這帶來的結果就是,美股是超短線交易者的天堂。 2.美股無漲跌停限制,一隻股票一天翻倍或者一天縮水80%都是允許的。對應A股,A股是10%漲跌停板,就是一隻股票的價格,最多波動10%就被封死,只能到第二天再漲或者再跌。第二點配合美股的T+0機制,帶來的結果是,美股股票的價格波動極大,比A股要大很多,這裏可以理解爲賺的多,賠的也多。 3.美股股票購買門檻低,1股就可以買賣,而A股的計價單位是手,一手=100股。舉個例子,一直股票,1塊錢1股。在美股你可以1塊1塊的買賣,在A股只能100塊100塊的買賣。第三點配合第一點和第二點,帶來結果是,美股流行的是高頻交易和機構交易。 4.美股支持做空,A股做空機制普通人玩不了。什麼叫做空,做空就是你可以在沒有股票的情況下賣出股票,然後再股票價格下跌的時候再買入股票還給對方。而買入股票,在股票上漲後賣出的行爲,叫做做多。做空是靠股票價格下跌獲利,做多是靠股票價格上漲獲利;目前大家在A股基本都是玩兒做多,要麼就空倉,罕有做空的。第四點配合第一二三點,帶來的結果是,美股的多空交戰極爲激烈。 5.美股的信息是相對透明的,投資者保護非常到位,一旦有上市公司利益關聯方發佈消息影響股價,會被美國的監管機構重
小白投資美股如何入門 首先,先去了解一些美股的運行機制,國外的現狀以及與國內A股的區別。 然後纔是考慮怎麼入門。錢什麼時候賺都不晚,錢也是賺不完的。我們逛個淘寶都要貨比拼多多,好歹拼多多還能給你點優惠券。炒股票這種直接可能造成轎車變單車的事情,還是瞭解清楚再說。 先科普一下,美股這個市場的特色以及與A股的不同點,然後纔是怎麼入門。 1.美股交易是一個T+0市場。什麼叫T+0,T+0就是隨買隨賣,美股支持你在開市時間內無限制的交易自己手中的股票,購買的股票,下一秒就可以賣出。對應A股,A股是T+1,就是今天買的股票,要下一個工作日才能賣出。這帶來的結果就是,美股是超短線交易者的天堂。 2.美股無漲跌停限制,一隻股票一天翻倍或者一天縮水80%都是允許的。對應A股,A股是10%漲跌停板,就是一隻股票的價格,最多波動10%就被封死,只能到第二天再漲或者再跌。第二點配合美股的T+0機制,帶來的結果是,美股股票的價格波動極大,比A股要大很多,這裏可以理解爲賺的多,賠的也多。 3.美股股票購買門檻低,1股就可以買賣,而A股的計價單位是手,一手=100股。舉個例子,一直股票,1塊錢1股。在美股你可以1塊1塊的買賣,在A股只能100塊100塊的買賣。第三點配合第一點和第二點,帶來結果是,美股流行的是高頻交易和機構交易。 4.美股支持做空,A股做空機制普通人玩不了。什麼叫做空,做空就是你可以在沒有股票的情況下賣出股票,然後再股票價格下跌的時候再買入股票還給對方。而買入股票,在股票上漲後賣出的行爲,叫做做多。做空是靠股票價格下跌獲利,做多是靠股票價格上漲獲利;目前大家在A股基本都是玩兒做多,要麼就空倉,罕有做空的。第四點配合第一二三點,帶來的結果是,美股的多空交戰極爲激烈。 5.美股的信息是相對透明的,投資者保護非常到位,一旦有上市公司利益關聯方發佈消息影響股價,會被美國的監管機構重
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鑫鑫洋
鑫鑫洋
·
2020-05-02
[666]
Re-examining the settlement day showdown between US and Chinese oil prices, which experienced a sharp "negative
震惊市场的负油价,究竟是谁造成的?
Re-examining the settlement day showdown between US and Chinese oil prices, which experienced a sharp "negative
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20250321 250.0 PUT 20250321 250.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20250321 250.0 PUT 20250321 250.0 PUT$</a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20250321 250.0 PUT 20250321 250.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20250321 250.0 PUT 20250321 250.0 PUT$</a> ","text":"$TSLA 20250321 250.0 PUT 20250321 250.0 PUT$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d212277559b84c3c5fa4388ac966004","width":"927","height":"1598"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/410332803989968","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4415,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":393724871,"gmtCreate":1606390910493,"gmtModify":1704965514893,"author":{"id":"3443259955812259","authorId":"3443259955812259","name":"鑫鑫洋","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2d2f1f10442d11e847ff989eb36f7a0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3443259955812259","idStr":"3443259955812259"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ThanksgivingDay Happy! ","listText":"ThanksgivingDay Happy! ","text":"ThanksgivingDay Happy!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/393724871","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5597,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":955952592,"gmtCreate":1592294363516,"gmtModify":1705318262366,"author":{"id":"3443259955812259","authorId":"3443259955812259","name":"鑫鑫洋","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2d2f1f10442d11e847ff989eb36f7a0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3443259955812259","idStr":"3443259955812259"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":".....……","listText":".....……","text":".....……","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6e9850162337e2064d459cb3b5d1b9","width":"4032","height":"3024"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/870459bb709fbb1b081c15db1dc65587","width":"3024","height":"4032"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9e9ac44e45ba6cbc5e366fdf8a81725","width":"3024","height":"4032"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/955952592","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6654,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3499695355071989","authorId":"3499695355071989","name":"gorgy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3499695355071989","idStr":"3499695355071989"},"content":"The third exposure technique is too delicious.","text":"The third exposure technique is too delicious.","html":"The third exposure technique is too delicious."}],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":951173038,"gmtCreate":1590705665224,"gmtModify":1705313292759,"author":{"id":"3443259955812259","authorId":"3443259955812259","name":"鑫鑫洋","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2d2f1f10442d11e847ff989eb36f7a0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3443259955812259","idStr":"3443259955812259"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Not bad,worth reading","listText":"Not bad,worth reading","text":"Not bad,worth reading","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/951173038","repostId":"951121530","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":951121530,"gmtCreate":1590683730520,"gmtModify":1705313257254,"author":{"id":"3443259955812259","authorId":"3443259955812259","name":"鑫鑫洋","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2d2f1f10442d11e847ff989eb36f7a0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3443259955812259","idStr":"3443259955812259"},"themes":[],"title":"迷人的小可愛!","htmlText":"這隻名叫NIKA的小貓最近可受歡迎了,已經在網絡上積累了百萬粉絲! 它出生於法國,天生的半邊臉孔灰色,半邊臉孔純黑,看起來又酷又科幻!<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/20706277526874\">@哆啦Ella</a>媽來瞧瞧人家這孩子咋生的太有創意了![捂臉] ","listText":"這隻名叫NIKA的小貓最近可受歡迎了,已經在網絡上積累了百萬粉絲! 它出生於法國,天生的半邊臉孔灰色,半邊臉孔純黑,看起來又酷又科幻!<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/20706277526874\">@哆啦Ella</a>媽來瞧瞧人家這孩子咋生的太有創意了![捂臉] ","text":"這隻名叫NIKA的小貓最近可受歡迎了,已經在網絡上積累了百萬粉絲! 它出生於法國,天生的半邊臉孔灰色,半邊臉孔純黑,看起來又酷又科幻!@哆啦Ella媽來瞧瞧人家這孩子咋生的太有創意了![捂臉]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c31b452e213f480b608026660541abd","width":"962","height":"617"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e31b690fb7955531ea05489e9382fd9e","width":"962","height":"641"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/807a1197bde2c196ad60d0e568ecadba","width":"962","height":"648"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/951121530","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":8,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4814,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":951149920,"gmtCreate":1590692412360,"gmtModify":1705313278468,"author":{"id":"3443259955812259","authorId":"3443259955812259","name":"鑫鑫洋","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2d2f1f10442d11e847ff989eb36f7a0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3443259955812259","idStr":"3443259955812259"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Not bad,worth reading","listText":"Not bad,worth reading","text":"Not bad,worth reading","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/951149920","repostId":"951309557","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":951309557,"gmtCreate":1590650470379,"gmtModify":1705313053918,"author":{"id":"3518577908622143","authorId":"3518577908622143","name":"一航Rex","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0dba0ca679bfc809e6e985b50de7bae","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3518577908622143","idStr":"3518577908622143"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"小白投資美股如何入門 首先,先去了解一些美股的運行機制,國外的現狀以及與國內A股的區別。 然後纔是考慮怎麼入門。錢什麼時候賺都不晚,錢也是賺不完的。我們逛個淘寶都要貨比拼多多,好歹拼多多還能給你點優惠券。炒股票這種直接可能造成轎車變單車的事情,還是瞭解清楚再說。 先科普一下,美股這個市場的特色以及與A股的不同點,然後纔是怎麼入門。 1.美股交易是一個T+0市場。什麼叫T+0,T+0就是隨買隨賣,美股支持你在開市時間內無限制的交易自己手中的股票,購買的股票,下一秒就可以賣出。對應A股,A股是T+1,就是今天買的股票,要下一個工作日才能賣出。這帶來的結果就是,美股是超短線交易者的天堂。 2.美股無漲跌停限制,一隻股票一天翻倍或者一天縮水80%都是允許的。對應A股,A股是10%漲跌停板,就是一隻股票的價格,最多波動10%就被封死,只能到第二天再漲或者再跌。第二點配合美股的T+0機制,帶來的結果是,美股股票的價格波動極大,比A股要大很多,這裏可以理解爲賺的多,賠的也多。 3.美股股票購買門檻低,1股就可以買賣,而A股的計價單位是手,一手=100股。舉個例子,一直股票,1塊錢1股。在美股你可以1塊1塊的買賣,在A股只能100塊100塊的買賣。第三點配合第一點和第二點,帶來結果是,美股流行的是高頻交易和機構交易。 4.美股支持做空,A股做空機制普通人玩不了。什麼叫做空,做空就是你可以在沒有股票的情況下賣出股票,然後再股票價格下跌的時候再買入股票還給對方。而買入股票,在股票上漲後賣出的行爲,叫做做多。做空是靠股票價格下跌獲利,做多是靠股票價格上漲獲利;目前大家在A股基本都是玩兒做多,要麼就空倉,罕有做空的。第四點配合第一二三點,帶來的結果是,美股的多空交戰極爲激烈。 5.美股的信息是相對透明的,投資者保護非常到位,一旦有上市公司利益關聯方發佈消息影響股價,會被美國的監管機構重","listText":"小白投資美股如何入門 首先,先去了解一些美股的運行機制,國外的現狀以及與國內A股的區別。 然後纔是考慮怎麼入門。錢什麼時候賺都不晚,錢也是賺不完的。我們逛個淘寶都要貨比拼多多,好歹拼多多還能給你點優惠券。炒股票這種直接可能造成轎車變單車的事情,還是瞭解清楚再說。 先科普一下,美股這個市場的特色以及與A股的不同點,然後纔是怎麼入門。 1.美股交易是一個T+0市場。什麼叫T+0,T+0就是隨買隨賣,美股支持你在開市時間內無限制的交易自己手中的股票,購買的股票,下一秒就可以賣出。對應A股,A股是T+1,就是今天買的股票,要下一個工作日才能賣出。這帶來的結果就是,美股是超短線交易者的天堂。 2.美股無漲跌停限制,一隻股票一天翻倍或者一天縮水80%都是允許的。對應A股,A股是10%漲跌停板,就是一隻股票的價格,最多波動10%就被封死,只能到第二天再漲或者再跌。第二點配合美股的T+0機制,帶來的結果是,美股股票的價格波動極大,比A股要大很多,這裏可以理解爲賺的多,賠的也多。 3.美股股票購買門檻低,1股就可以買賣,而A股的計價單位是手,一手=100股。舉個例子,一直股票,1塊錢1股。在美股你可以1塊1塊的買賣,在A股只能100塊100塊的買賣。第三點配合第一點和第二點,帶來結果是,美股流行的是高頻交易和機構交易。 4.美股支持做空,A股做空機制普通人玩不了。什麼叫做空,做空就是你可以在沒有股票的情況下賣出股票,然後再股票價格下跌的時候再買入股票還給對方。而買入股票,在股票上漲後賣出的行爲,叫做做多。做空是靠股票價格下跌獲利,做多是靠股票價格上漲獲利;目前大家在A股基本都是玩兒做多,要麼就空倉,罕有做空的。第四點配合第一二三點,帶來的結果是,美股的多空交戰極爲激烈。 5.美股的信息是相對透明的,投資者保護非常到位,一旦有上市公司利益關聯方發佈消息影響股價,會被美國的監管機構重","text":"小白投資美股如何入門 首先,先去了解一些美股的運行機制,國外的現狀以及與國內A股的區別。 然後纔是考慮怎麼入門。錢什麼時候賺都不晚,錢也是賺不完的。我們逛個淘寶都要貨比拼多多,好歹拼多多還能給你點優惠券。炒股票這種直接可能造成轎車變單車的事情,還是瞭解清楚再說。 先科普一下,美股這個市場的特色以及與A股的不同點,然後纔是怎麼入門。 1.美股交易是一個T+0市場。什麼叫T+0,T+0就是隨買隨賣,美股支持你在開市時間內無限制的交易自己手中的股票,購買的股票,下一秒就可以賣出。對應A股,A股是T+1,就是今天買的股票,要下一個工作日才能賣出。這帶來的結果就是,美股是超短線交易者的天堂。 2.美股無漲跌停限制,一隻股票一天翻倍或者一天縮水80%都是允許的。對應A股,A股是10%漲跌停板,就是一隻股票的價格,最多波動10%就被封死,只能到第二天再漲或者再跌。第二點配合美股的T+0機制,帶來的結果是,美股股票的價格波動極大,比A股要大很多,這裏可以理解爲賺的多,賠的也多。 3.美股股票購買門檻低,1股就可以買賣,而A股的計價單位是手,一手=100股。舉個例子,一直股票,1塊錢1股。在美股你可以1塊1塊的買賣,在A股只能100塊100塊的買賣。第三點配合第一點和第二點,帶來結果是,美股流行的是高頻交易和機構交易。 4.美股支持做空,A股做空機制普通人玩不了。什麼叫做空,做空就是你可以在沒有股票的情況下賣出股票,然後再股票價格下跌的時候再買入股票還給對方。而買入股票,在股票上漲後賣出的行爲,叫做做多。做空是靠股票價格下跌獲利,做多是靠股票價格上漲獲利;目前大家在A股基本都是玩兒做多,要麼就空倉,罕有做空的。第四點配合第一二三點,帶來的結果是,美股的多空交戰極爲激烈。 5.美股的信息是相對透明的,投資者保護非常到位,一旦有上市公司利益關聯方發佈消息影響股價,會被美國的監管機構重","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c29978f010da28f6ec866fcc1bcb339a","width":"1000","height":"750"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/951309557","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6242,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":924516714,"gmtCreate":1588428970638,"gmtModify":1705307266024,"author":{"id":"3443259955812259","authorId":"3443259955812259","name":"鑫鑫洋","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2d2f1f10442d11e847ff989eb36f7a0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3443259955812259","idStr":"3443259955812259"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[666] ","listText":"[666] ","text":"[666]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/924516714","repostId":"2031395367","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2031395367","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1588232146,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2031395367?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2020-04-30 15:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Re-examining the settlement day showdown between US and Chinese oil prices, which experienced a sharp \"negative","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2031395367","media":"金十数据","summary":"震惊市场的负油价,究竟是谁造成的?","content":"<p><html><body><span>This article is from Fu Peng's Finance World.</span></p><p><hr/><span></span><strong><span>Explanation of \"Negative Price\" of Commodities in Economics</span></strong></p><p>The story of pouring milk is not because milk is truly worthless, but because it cannot be preserved or stored. A negative spot price is short-lived and will quickly lead to supply cuts and production shutdowns. Moreover, the negative price here is actually close to zero commodity value, including additional costs such as warehousing, transportation, and labor.</p><p>In the lives of most ordinary people, such experiences are countless, just like what some farmers have experienced: the market price of the vegetables they grow is too low, so they can only rot in the field. If people are organized to harvest and transport them, after deducting the transportation costs and labor costs, the vegetables at this moment are also the so-called \"negative price\".</p><p>For example, in the recycling industry, in Europe and America, you need to pay costs for door-to-door recycling. You can either take it to a unified recycling center yourself, including your driving costs, fuel costs, and time costs. If you factor these in, the items you deliver to the recycling center will have a \"negative\" price.</p><p>When time and labor costs are insignificant, garbage collection can be profitable, which is an arbitrage opportunity. As time and labor costs become increasingly valuable, you may even need to incur costs to dispose of waste cardboard boxes and cans. This doesn't mean that cardboard boxes and cans are worthless, but rather that the intermediate costs outweigh the value of the goods.</p><p>For example, many industrial smelting enterprises produce a by-product during the production process—sulfuric acid.</p><p>Because sulfuric acid, a highly corrosive and hazardous chemical, has high storage requirements, if it cannot be absorbed by downstream industries in a timely manner and the smelting enterprise's plant storage capacity expands, the excess sulfuric acid needs to be disposed of. Otherwise, the entire production process will be forced to stop production, and the manufacturing enterprise will pay people to dispose of this sulfuric acid.</p><p>The same principle applies to the US natural gas market. For US oil companies, natural gas is a by-product, also known as \"associated gas.\" Its production is basically unrelated to its own production and is a byproduct of other main products. In other words, as long as the main products are still in production, more natural gas will be \"produced\" regardless of the price.</p><p>Once excess natural gas occurs, firstly, it cannot be released into the air or burned directly due to regulatory and safety concerns. Secondly, it is necessary to pay pipeline operators who can transport the gas to transport it away so as not to affect the normal production of their main business, which is the same as the example of sulfuric acid I gave earlier.</p><p>Do negative oil prices really exist in the spot market? Yes, it was very brief. When the inventory was finally cleared, it was accompanied by a production shutdown. Continuing production at a loss is not something any operator would do. This is not the first time that oil prices have negatively affected oil prices in the spot market. In 1998...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00662\">Asian Finance</a>It happened once after the crisis, but each time there was a special reason - that is, compensation for the transportation and warehousing process.</p><p><strong>The more complete the industrial chain, the negative prices generated by such by-products can be negligible, because they can be absorbed by the prices of other finished products. If the production process is very singular, it becomes very vulnerable.</strong></p><p>The situation of dumping milk in the past is relatively rare now. The integration of the industrial chain means that internal production departments can transform from milk that is not easy to preserve into products such as cheese, cream, and yogurt that are easier to preserve. Most of the cases of milk dumping that still occur today are due to the segmentation of the industrial chain, which has squeezed out dairy farmers from downstream suppliers. Of course, you can't judge whether this is moral. After all, without integration, the upstream and downstream are independent business entities, and each is responsible for its own operations.</p><p>The same applies to the current shale oil industry chain in the United States. Due to the rise of the shale oil revolution, the shale oil extraction industry in several major inland areas of the United States has experienced large-scale development. However, large oil companies were initially relatively conservative about horizontal fracturing technology and did not enter the extraction stage on a large scale. They focused more on pipeline construction and storage.</p><p><strong>The connection between the interior of the United States and the Bay Area refineries means that the shale oil extraction process remains small and scattered, and the capillaries between wellheads are not particularly well-developed, which leads to the vulnerability of the industrial links I mentioned earlier.</strong></p><p><strong><span>The financial futures market has many different characteristics.</span></strong></p><p>Here we must also mention the WTI futures contract, which is the financial futures segment.<strong>Although futures market prices have a significant price discovery function and have a significant reference effect on the spot market, this does not mean that they are 100% consistent with the spot and physical market. The prices of many commodity financial futures transactions do not fully represent the true physical prices.</strong></p><p>This involves the technical issues of the futures contract itself. The situation in the real market may not be completely consistent with that in the futures market. After all, a futures contract is a special deliverable product with specially set delivery rules, and these delivery rules have their own unique characteristics to varying degrees. This leads to the differences between deliverable products and non-deliverable products, as well as the impact of delivery costs on the pricing of deliverable products.</p><p>Of course, in most cases, the futures market has become an anchor to the spot market, and many commodities are even quoted using futures premiums and discounts. However, for some commodities with strong special attributes, the unique influence of the futures market is actually very significant. Therefore, I often say that not all commodities are suitable for financialization, nor are all commodities suitable for ordinary investors as asset allocation.</p><p>In the years since the development of commodity futures in the United States, have you ever heard of ordinary investors easily participating in futures such as live cattle and orange juice? Do ordinary investors have such conditions?</p><p><strong>In situations of extreme supply and demand variables, the technical issues raised by these futures contracts often become key factors in causing drastic price fluctuations in the financial market, or even deviations from the physical market.</strong></p><p>In the real world, arbitrage is not used to correct such deviations exactly as textbooks suggest. Often, this is the key cause of financial risk, not just the contradictory relationships in the spot market. The extreme situation of the WTI 2005 contract is one such reason.</p><p><strong><span>Why is this WTI 2005 risk considered very special?</span></strong></p><p>WTI crude oil futures are also a deliverable commodity. The final WTI trading price is the wellhead price in the Permain region of the United States, plus pipeline costs (sometimes heavy and high-density crude oil requires the addition of lubricant to be injected into the pipeline), plus the cost of Cushing tanks and the pipeline's transportation costs.</p><p>Therefore, observing the price differential in the inland United States is observing the relationship between the actual production area and the delivered goods. Under normal circumstances, assuming that oil prices in major producing areas in the inland United States are classified as 0, what should the theoretical Cushing price be? The average price will still be around $3-4 per barrel. This means that the goods can be free, but there will still be costs such as transportation, pipelines, and warehousing to the delivery location. Therefore, when the price of the actual delivered goods is included, it will definitely be a positive value.</p><p>Therefore, theoretically, when the price of WTI plummets, even if the price difference between WTI delivery and wellhead production remains unchanged, if the WTI oil price falls below $10 per barrel, it will mean that the wellhead price in the production area has disappeared to 0 or close to 0 dollars per barrel. At this point, if producers continue to produce and sell oil, it means that the goods are no longer worth anything.</p><p>At this point, a larger wave of shutdowns followed, as crude oil production could not be dumped indiscriminately (the cost of polluting the environment was high). Therefore, this little bit of oil will ultimately be disposed of at the wellhead price, which means paying to have someone haul it away. Of course, if no one wants it yet, then you'll have to pay more money to have someone take it away. There are no truly unwanted goods in this world, only whether there's enough cost.</p><p>So let's calculate that even with the negative wellhead price plus pipeline transportation and warehousing, the price to the WTI Cushing delivery site should not actually be negative. If the price to WTI Cushing is negative and exceeds the compensation required for the intermediate transportation pipeline, then it can only mean that the warehousing link needs more financial compensation to free up space. In summary, it is the same as the following formula:</p><p>WTI Cushing delivery = production wellhead + transportation pipeline + warehousing</p><p>If the production wellhead price is initially zero, then the WTI Cushing price should theoretically be at least $3-4. If it falls below this price, no one will be willing to help transport the production wellhead.</p><p>The production wellhead first compensates for pipeline freight and normal storage costs ($3-4). WTI can be negative. As long as the absolute value of the negative number is less than the compensation, there is still money to be made. Some people are willing to arbitrage to help the production wellhead solve the surplus. Of course, this situation will not last long, because the production wellhead will be shut down soon, and it is impossible to keep losing money.</p><p>Does output need to be used to compensate for higher output? There is only one scenario: warehousing costs become higher, and the compensation needs to be sufficiently attractive to warehousers to cover it.</p><p>If crude oil didn't require pipeline transportation, tank storage, or VLCC storage, similar to solid bulk commodities that could be stored in an open-air shed, I think you would absolutely not see negative prices. This is the principle I explained earlier. More often than not, it is only for commodities that are not easy to store that this large-scale compensation for warehousing and time costs occurs.</p><p>Many people might say that OPEC+ production cuts are useless because prices are still plummeting, but they ignore the technical details.<strong>The production cut plan, which began on May 1, has no substantial effect on WTI's May and June contracts.</strong></p><p>The reason is that on the last trading day, the last trading day for the WTI May contract is April 21, while the last trading day for the June contract is mid-May. Normally, speculative funds that do not participate in the actual spot delivery will transfer their positions and leave 2-3 weeks in advance. In other words, the May and June contracts in early April and early May did not actually reflect long-term expectations, but rather the contradictions between them and the actual spot market and the technical contradictions in the financial market were becoming increasingly close.</p><p><span><strong>What exactly was the delivery price of the final WTI2005 contract?</strong></span></p><p><img src=\"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/153c2419-3bca-4e7e-b76a-244ade3e7f2a.png\"/>It was this technical problem that caused the sharp fluctuations in financial prices as the WTI 2005 contract approached its final trading day. However, such a price did not actually appear in the spot market. Of course, the final actual settlement price was basically revealed ten hours later. As shown in the figure, the WTI2005 contract entered the actual delivery stage, with 2,427 lots entering the final physical delivery, which is 2.437 million barrels. The delivery settlement price was $10.01 per barrel, which is the final actual Cushing delivery price.</p><p>Therefore, it is not difficult to see that the situation where crude oil is truly free, as many people have been clamoring for, has not actually occurred. The actual final spot price is still settled at $10.01 per barrel.</p><p><span><strong>In a showdown on the settlement day, if someone makes a mistake, they have to pay for it.</strong></span></p><p>So why did the lowest price of -$40.32 per barrel occur during the financial trading process? This is where the final showdown on the settlement day occurs on the last trading day. Of course, it's just a showdown on the financial market, where some people make mistakes and have to pay for them.</p><p>Many people would simply say that this is a short-selling financial war, but that term is actually inaccurate.</p><p>Firstly, on the last trading day, the so-called role of bulls and bears is no longer simply the attribute of going long and short in terms of funds as everyone understands it. A more accurate description should be \"positioning and squeezing margins\".<strong>It can also be understood as buyers with storage capacity forcing those \"buyers\" who do not have storage capacity to go long. The $10.01 to -$40.32 competition between them is the storage compensation fee for those who do not have storage capacity to those who have storage capacity.</strong></p><p>Of course, this compensation does not actually occur in the actual final spot delivery, that is to say, similar...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03988\">BOC</a>The position transfer designs of institutions such as these have become the biggest risk this time. Buyers who were unable to receive goods and lacked storage capacity actually held their positions until the last trading day, which poses a huge risk. They were eventually caught by the last physical traders, who ruthlessly used financial trading rules in the financial market to force these undeliverable funds to close their positions at extremely deviant negative prices, making a huge profit.</p><p>Although this is insignificant compared to the actual spot market, the equivalent of at least 10 million barrels of crude oil ultimately received a huge storage compensation fee, which is the bill for financial investors who made mistakes on the final settlement day.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Re-examining the settlement day showdown between US and Chinese oil prices, which experienced a sharp \"negative</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRe-examining the settlement day showdown between US and Chinese oil prices, which experienced a sharp \"negative\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2020-04-30 15:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><span>This article is from Fu Peng's Finance World.</span></p><p><hr/><span></span><strong><span>Explanation of \"Negative Price\" of Commodities in Economics</span></strong></p><p>The story of pouring milk is not because milk is truly worthless, but because it cannot be preserved or stored. A negative spot price is short-lived and will quickly lead to supply cuts and production shutdowns. Moreover, the negative price here is actually close to zero commodity value, including additional costs such as warehousing, transportation, and labor.</p><p>In the lives of most ordinary people, such experiences are countless, just like what some farmers have experienced: the market price of the vegetables they grow is too low, so they can only rot in the field. If people are organized to harvest and transport them, after deducting the transportation costs and labor costs, the vegetables at this moment are also the so-called \"negative price\".</p><p>For example, in the recycling industry, in Europe and America, you need to pay costs for door-to-door recycling. You can either take it to a unified recycling center yourself, including your driving costs, fuel costs, and time costs. If you factor these in, the items you deliver to the recycling center will have a \"negative\" price.</p><p>When time and labor costs are insignificant, garbage collection can be profitable, which is an arbitrage opportunity. As time and labor costs become increasingly valuable, you may even need to incur costs to dispose of waste cardboard boxes and cans. This doesn't mean that cardboard boxes and cans are worthless, but rather that the intermediate costs outweigh the value of the goods.</p><p>For example, many industrial smelting enterprises produce a by-product during the production process—sulfuric acid.</p><p>Because sulfuric acid, a highly corrosive and hazardous chemical, has high storage requirements, if it cannot be absorbed by downstream industries in a timely manner and the smelting enterprise's plant storage capacity expands, the excess sulfuric acid needs to be disposed of. Otherwise, the entire production process will be forced to stop production, and the manufacturing enterprise will pay people to dispose of this sulfuric acid.</p><p>The same principle applies to the US natural gas market. For US oil companies, natural gas is a by-product, also known as \"associated gas.\" Its production is basically unrelated to its own production and is a byproduct of other main products. In other words, as long as the main products are still in production, more natural gas will be \"produced\" regardless of the price.</p><p>Once excess natural gas occurs, firstly, it cannot be released into the air or burned directly due to regulatory and safety concerns. Secondly, it is necessary to pay pipeline operators who can transport the gas to transport it away so as not to affect the normal production of their main business, which is the same as the example of sulfuric acid I gave earlier.</p><p>Do negative oil prices really exist in the spot market? Yes, it was very brief. When the inventory was finally cleared, it was accompanied by a production shutdown. Continuing production at a loss is not something any operator would do. This is not the first time that oil prices have negatively affected oil prices in the spot market. In 1998...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00662\">Asian Finance</a>It happened once after the crisis, but each time there was a special reason - that is, compensation for the transportation and warehousing process.</p><p><strong>The more complete the industrial chain, the negative prices generated by such by-products can be negligible, because they can be absorbed by the prices of other finished products. If the production process is very singular, it becomes very vulnerable.</strong></p><p>The situation of dumping milk in the past is relatively rare now. The integration of the industrial chain means that internal production departments can transform from milk that is not easy to preserve into products such as cheese, cream, and yogurt that are easier to preserve. Most of the cases of milk dumping that still occur today are due to the segmentation of the industrial chain, which has squeezed out dairy farmers from downstream suppliers. Of course, you can't judge whether this is moral. After all, without integration, the upstream and downstream are independent business entities, and each is responsible for its own operations.</p><p>The same applies to the current shale oil industry chain in the United States. Due to the rise of the shale oil revolution, the shale oil extraction industry in several major inland areas of the United States has experienced large-scale development. However, large oil companies were initially relatively conservative about horizontal fracturing technology and did not enter the extraction stage on a large scale. They focused more on pipeline construction and storage.</p><p><strong>The connection between the interior of the United States and the Bay Area refineries means that the shale oil extraction process remains small and scattered, and the capillaries between wellheads are not particularly well-developed, which leads to the vulnerability of the industrial links I mentioned earlier.</strong></p><p><strong><span>The financial futures market has many different characteristics.</span></strong></p><p>Here we must also mention the WTI futures contract, which is the financial futures segment.<strong>Although futures market prices have a significant price discovery function and have a significant reference effect on the spot market, this does not mean that they are 100% consistent with the spot and physical market. The prices of many commodity financial futures transactions do not fully represent the true physical prices.</strong></p><p>This involves the technical issues of the futures contract itself. The situation in the real market may not be completely consistent with that in the futures market. After all, a futures contract is a special deliverable product with specially set delivery rules, and these delivery rules have their own unique characteristics to varying degrees. This leads to the differences between deliverable products and non-deliverable products, as well as the impact of delivery costs on the pricing of deliverable products.</p><p>Of course, in most cases, the futures market has become an anchor to the spot market, and many commodities are even quoted using futures premiums and discounts. However, for some commodities with strong special attributes, the unique influence of the futures market is actually very significant. Therefore, I often say that not all commodities are suitable for financialization, nor are all commodities suitable for ordinary investors as asset allocation.</p><p>In the years since the development of commodity futures in the United States, have you ever heard of ordinary investors easily participating in futures such as live cattle and orange juice? Do ordinary investors have such conditions?</p><p><strong>In situations of extreme supply and demand variables, the technical issues raised by these futures contracts often become key factors in causing drastic price fluctuations in the financial market, or even deviations from the physical market.</strong></p><p>In the real world, arbitrage is not used to correct such deviations exactly as textbooks suggest. Often, this is the key cause of financial risk, not just the contradictory relationships in the spot market. The extreme situation of the WTI 2005 contract is one such reason.</p><p><strong><span>Why is this WTI 2005 risk considered very special?</span></strong></p><p>WTI crude oil futures are also a deliverable commodity. The final WTI trading price is the wellhead price in the Permain region of the United States, plus pipeline costs (sometimes heavy and high-density crude oil requires the addition of lubricant to be injected into the pipeline), plus the cost of Cushing tanks and the pipeline's transportation costs.</p><p>Therefore, observing the price differential in the inland United States is observing the relationship between the actual production area and the delivered goods. Under normal circumstances, assuming that oil prices in major producing areas in the inland United States are classified as 0, what should the theoretical Cushing price be? The average price will still be around $3-4 per barrel. This means that the goods can be free, but there will still be costs such as transportation, pipelines, and warehousing to the delivery location. Therefore, when the price of the actual delivered goods is included, it will definitely be a positive value.</p><p>Therefore, theoretically, when the price of WTI plummets, even if the price difference between WTI delivery and wellhead production remains unchanged, if the WTI oil price falls below $10 per barrel, it will mean that the wellhead price in the production area has disappeared to 0 or close to 0 dollars per barrel. At this point, if producers continue to produce and sell oil, it means that the goods are no longer worth anything.</p><p>At this point, a larger wave of shutdowns followed, as crude oil production could not be dumped indiscriminately (the cost of polluting the environment was high). Therefore, this little bit of oil will ultimately be disposed of at the wellhead price, which means paying to have someone haul it away. Of course, if no one wants it yet, then you'll have to pay more money to have someone take it away. There are no truly unwanted goods in this world, only whether there's enough cost.</p><p>So let's calculate that even with the negative wellhead price plus pipeline transportation and warehousing, the price to the WTI Cushing delivery site should not actually be negative. If the price to WTI Cushing is negative and exceeds the compensation required for the intermediate transportation pipeline, then it can only mean that the warehousing link needs more financial compensation to free up space. In summary, it is the same as the following formula:</p><p>WTI Cushing delivery = production wellhead + transportation pipeline + warehousing</p><p>If the production wellhead price is initially zero, then the WTI Cushing price should theoretically be at least $3-4. If it falls below this price, no one will be willing to help transport the production wellhead.</p><p>The production wellhead first compensates for pipeline freight and normal storage costs ($3-4). WTI can be negative. As long as the absolute value of the negative number is less than the compensation, there is still money to be made. Some people are willing to arbitrage to help the production wellhead solve the surplus. Of course, this situation will not last long, because the production wellhead will be shut down soon, and it is impossible to keep losing money.</p><p>Does output need to be used to compensate for higher output? There is only one scenario: warehousing costs become higher, and the compensation needs to be sufficiently attractive to warehousers to cover it.</p><p>If crude oil didn't require pipeline transportation, tank storage, or VLCC storage, similar to solid bulk commodities that could be stored in an open-air shed, I think you would absolutely not see negative prices. This is the principle I explained earlier. More often than not, it is only for commodities that are not easy to store that this large-scale compensation for warehousing and time costs occurs.</p><p>Many people might say that OPEC+ production cuts are useless because prices are still plummeting, but they ignore the technical details.<strong>The production cut plan, which began on May 1, has no substantial effect on WTI's May and June contracts.</strong></p><p>The reason is that on the last trading day, the last trading day for the WTI May contract is April 21, while the last trading day for the June contract is mid-May. Normally, speculative funds that do not participate in the actual spot delivery will transfer their positions and leave 2-3 weeks in advance. In other words, the May and June contracts in early April and early May did not actually reflect long-term expectations, but rather the contradictions between them and the actual spot market and the technical contradictions in the financial market were becoming increasingly close.</p><p><span><strong>What exactly was the delivery price of the final WTI2005 contract?</strong></span></p><p><img src=\"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/153c2419-3bca-4e7e-b76a-244ade3e7f2a.png\"/>It was this technical problem that caused the sharp fluctuations in financial prices as the WTI 2005 contract approached its final trading day. However, such a price did not actually appear in the spot market. Of course, the final actual settlement price was basically revealed ten hours later. As shown in the figure, the WTI2005 contract entered the actual delivery stage, with 2,427 lots entering the final physical delivery, which is 2.437 million barrels. The delivery settlement price was $10.01 per barrel, which is the final actual Cushing delivery price.</p><p>Therefore, it is not difficult to see that the situation where crude oil is truly free, as many people have been clamoring for, has not actually occurred. The actual final spot price is still settled at $10.01 per barrel.</p><p><span><strong>In a showdown on the settlement day, if someone makes a mistake, they have to pay for it.</strong></span></p><p>So why did the lowest price of -$40.32 per barrel occur during the financial trading process? This is where the final showdown on the settlement day occurs on the last trading day. Of course, it's just a showdown on the financial market, where some people make mistakes and have to pay for them.</p><p>Many people would simply say that this is a short-selling financial war, but that term is actually inaccurate.</p><p>Firstly, on the last trading day, the so-called role of bulls and bears is no longer simply the attribute of going long and short in terms of funds as everyone understands it. A more accurate description should be \"positioning and squeezing margins\".<strong>It can also be understood as buyers with storage capacity forcing those \"buyers\" who do not have storage capacity to go long. The $10.01 to -$40.32 competition between them is the storage compensation fee for those who do not have storage capacity to those who have storage capacity.</strong></p><p>Of course, this compensation does not actually occur in the actual final spot delivery, that is to say, similar...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03988\">BOC</a>The position transfer designs of institutions such as these have become the biggest risk this time. Buyers who were unable to receive goods and lacked storage capacity actually held their positions until the last trading day, which poses a huge risk. They were eventually caught by the last physical traders, who ruthlessly used financial trading rules in the financial market to force these undeliverable funds to close their positions at extremely deviant negative prices, making a huge profit.</p><p>Although this is insignificant compared to the actual spot market, the equivalent of at least 10 million barrels of crude oil ultimately received a huge storage compensation fee, which is the bill for financial investors who made mistakes on the final settlement day.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=59518&type=news\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/39464a6b-e98e-4336-88c8-e6bf52de1571.jpg/lite","relate_stocks":{"SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","USO":"美国原油ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=59518&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2031395367","content_text":"本文来自付鹏的财经世界 经济学中的商品“负价格”的解释倒牛奶的故事,并不是因为牛奶真的没有价值,是因为没法保存和储存。负数的现货价格很短暂,很快就会造成供应的削减和停产,并且这里面的负价格其实是接近于0的商品价值,包含额外付出的仓储,运输,人力等成本。在我们大多数普通人的生活世界中,这样的经历其实已经多不胜数,就好像一些农民曾经经历过的事情一样:种植的蔬菜价格市场销售价格太低,那么只能让其烂在地里,如果组织人去收割运输的话,扣掉运费扣掉人力成本其实此时此刻的蔬菜也是所谓的“负价格”。比如说做回收的,在欧美上门回收你是需要付出成本的,要么就你自己拉到统一的旧物回收站,你开车的油费,你的时间成本,这些都计入进去的话,你送到回收站的东西就是“负”价格。时间成本人力成本不值钱的时候,收垃圾是可以赚钱的,也就是套利空间;当时间成本人力成本越来越值钱的时候,你甚至需要付出成本才能够将垃圾废纸箱废易拉罐这些处理掉,这并不是说纸箱、易拉罐没有价值,而是中间成本高出了商品的价值。再比如很多工业冶炼企业在生产过程中会产生副产品——硫酸。因为硫酸这种高腐蚀危化品保存储存要求高,一旦不能及时被下游产业消纳,冶炼企业厂区库容出现了胀库的情况,就需要处理掉多余的硫酸,否则整个生产过程就会面临着被迫停产,这时候生产企业就会付钱给人来处理掉这些硫酸。同样的道理也发生在美国天然气市场,对于美国产油企业而来说天然气是副产品,也叫做“伴生气”,它的产量基本上与其本身的生产无关都是伴生其他主要产品的附属物,也就是说只要主要产品还在生产,那么无论什么价格都会“生产”出更多的天然气。一旦出现了多余的天然气,首先因为法规和安全问题不能排放到天空或是直接烧掉,其次就需要付钱给可将气体运送出去的管线营运商来运走,以便不影响其主营业务的正常生产,这和我前面举的硫酸的例子是一样的。现货市场真的有负油价成交么?有,很短暂,最后清理库存的时候,随之伴随的就是停产,赔钱还持续性生产这不是任何经营者会做的事情,油价在现货市场上负油价的现象也并不是第一次,1998年亚洲金融危机后出现过一次,但都是有特殊的原因-那就是运输仓储环节的补偿。产业链如果越完善,这样的副产品产生的负价格其实可以忽略不计,因为它可以通过其他产成品价格进行消化,如果这个生产环节非常单一那就非常脆弱了。曾经的倒牛奶情况目前发生的就比较少了,产业链一体化意味着内部生产部门之间可以发生着转化,从不易保存的牛奶转化为更容易保存的乳酪,奶油,酸奶等商品。而目前还发生倒牛奶的多数情况都是产业链的分割导致的奶农被下游进行了挤压。当然你没法去评价这是否道德,毕竟没有一体化的情况下,上下游是独立的经营体,各自都需要对各自的经营而负责。对于目前美国的页岩油产业链也是如此,由于页岩油革命的兴起,美国内陆主要几个产区的页岩油开采行业得到了大规模的发展。但是对于大型石油公司而言,对于水平压裂技术一开始都比较的保守,并没有大举的进入到开采环节,更多的是在打通管道、仓储这些环节。衔接美国内陆地区和湾区炼厂之间,这就是使得页岩油开采环节仍处于小而散的状态,且井口和井口之间的毛细血管也都不是特别的完善,这就导致了前面我提到的产业环节的脆弱性。金融期货市场又具备了很多不同的特点这里还不得不提一提关于WTI期货合约,也就是金融期货环节。虽然期货市场价格已经有了非常大的价格发现的功能,并且对于现货市场有着非常大的参照作用,但并不意味着它和现货实货市场就100%完全的一致,很多商品金融期货交易的价格并不完全代表真正的实货价格。这里面就涉及到其本身这个期货合约设定的技术性问题,真实实货市场的情况并不会和期货市场有着完全的吻合,毕竟期货合约是一个特殊的交割品,有着特殊设定的交割规则,并且这些交割规则上或多或少都有着其自身的一些独特的特点,这就导致了我们常说的交割品和非交割品之间的差异,还有交割环节成本对于交割品定价的影响。当然大多数时候期货市场对于现货市场已经成为了锚,甚至很多商品报价都已经以期货升贴水的方式进行了报价,但是对于一些特殊属性强的商品,期货市场的这种独特性影响其实是非常大的,所以我经常说不是所有的大宗商品都适合金融化的,也不是所有的大宗商品都适合普通投资者作为资产配置。美国商品期货发展这么多年以来,什么时候你听说过普通投资者随随便便参与活牛、橙汁这些期货的,普通投资者具备这样的条件么?在极端的供需变量的情况下,这些期货设定的技术性问题往往会成为金融市场价格剧烈波动,甚至是偏离实货环节的关键因素。现实的世界里并不会完全按照教科书里面说的用套利的力量去修正这样的偏差,很多时候,这才是导致金融风险的关键原因,不仅仅是现货市场上的那些矛盾关系,这次的WTI2005合约的极端情况,就属于这样的原因。这次WTI2005风险为什么说它是非常特殊的WTI原油期货本身也是个交割品,美国内陆Permain地区的井口价格加上管道费用(有时候类似重质高密度的还需要添加润滑剂才能够注入管道),加上库欣罐子的费用,管道商的运输费用,这才是最终WTI交易的价格。所以观察美国内陆价差是观察真正实际产出地和交割品之间的关系,正常情况下假设如果美国内陆主要产区的油价都归到了0,那么理论上的库欣价格应该是多少?大概仍需要平均3-4美元/桶的价格,这也就是说东西可以不要钱,但是拉到交割地的运输、管道、仓储这些成本还是要有,所以计算进去到实际交割品的价格,也肯定是正价值。所以理论上当WTI的价格狂跌时,WTI交割和井口产地的价差即便不变化,当WTI油价低于10美元/桶的话,也将会意味着产区井口的价格已经消失为0或者接近为0美元/桶,此时生产商如果继续产油卖油,就意味着货物已经不值钱。此时更大规模的关闭潮就紧接而至,由于原油产出后不能够随意倾倒(污染环境的成本很高)。因此最后这点油也就会以负井口价格,也就是付钱请人拉走来进行处理。当然如果还没人要,那就需要付出更多的钱让人拉走,这个世界没有真正的没有人要的商品,只有够不够的成本。那么我们算一下即便是负井口的价格加上管道运输仓储,实际上到WTI库欣交割地的价格也不应该是负数,如果到WTI库欣都是负数且超出了中间运输管道所需的补偿,那么只能说明仓储环节需要更多的资金补偿才能够腾出空间。总结起来就是下面这道公式一样:WTI库欣交割=产地井口+运输管道+仓储产出井口先为0价格,那么WTI库欣价格理论上最低为3-4美元,如果低于这个价格,就没有人愿意帮产出井口运输。产出井口先补偿管道运费和正常的仓储费用(3-4美元),WTI可以为负价,只要负数的绝对值小于补偿,那就仍然有钱赚,有人就愿意去套利帮助产出井口来解决过剩,当然这种情况不会持续很久,因为产出井口很快就关停了,一直赔钱是没法干的。需要产出去补偿更高?那只有一种情况,仓储的成本变得更高,补偿就需要足够吸引仓储商才能覆盖。假如原油不是需要管道运输,不是需要油罐储存,VLCC储存,就类似于固体大宗一样可以露天搭个棚子就可以摆放储存的话,我想你是绝对看不到负数的货价的,这就是前面我解释的原理,更多的时候都是那些不容易储存的商品才会出现这种大规模补偿仓储成本和时间成本的情景。很多人也许会说OPEC+减产没用,因为价格还在暴跌,但是却忽略了技术性的细节。5月1日开始执行的减产计划,对于WTI的五月份和约和六月份合约是没有任何实质性的作用的。原因是因为最后的这个交易日,WTI的五月份合约最后交易日是4月21日,而六月份合约的最后交易日是五月中,正常情况那些并不参与实际交割现货的投机性资金都会提前2-3周移仓离开。也就是说实际上在4月初和5月初对于5月份合约和6月份合约不反应远期预期,而更多的则是和实际的现货市场的矛盾关系还有金融市场的技术性矛盾关系越来越贴近。最后的WTI2005合约的交割价格究竟是多少?WTI2005合约临近最后交易日时刻,就是这种技术性问题导致了金融价格的剧烈波动。而现货市场则并没有真正意义上有这样的价格出来,当然时隔十个小时后,基本上最后的实际交割价格也就出来了。最终WTI2005合约,如图一样进入到了实际交割环节,最终2427手进入到了最后真正的实货的交割,也就是243.7万桶,交割结算价格是10.01美元/桶,这就是最后真实的库欣提货的价格。所以不难发现,并没有真正的出现很多人高呼的原油真的不要钱的情况,实际的最终现货仍然是以10.01美元/桶进行的买卖交割。结算日的对决,有人犯错误就需要给错误买单那为什么金融交易的环节中出现了最低-40.32美元/桶的情况呢?这就是在最后的交易日里,出现了结算日的最终对决,当然只是金融盘子上的对决,最终有些人犯了错误就需要给错误买单。很多人会简单的说这是一场空逼多的金融战,这个词其实用的不准确。首先到了最后的交易日这里面所谓的多空的角色,已经不是简单的大家理解的资金层面上面的做多做空的属性,更为准确的形容应该是“仓储逼仓”。也可以理解为有仓储库容的买家倒逼那些没有仓储库容还在做多的“买家”,这中间对决的10.01美元到-40.32美元之间,就是那些没仓储库容的对人家有仓储库容的仓储补偿费。当然这种补偿并不会真正的发生在实际最终的现货交割,也就是说类似中国银行等机构的移仓设计在此次成为了最大的风险。不能够接货没有仓储库容的买家竟然持仓到了最后交易日,这就存在巨大的风险,最终被最后的实货交易者给抓住,在金融市场上狠狠的利用金融交易规则逼这些无法交割的资金在超级偏离的负价格上平仓,狠狠大赚了一笔。虽然这和实际的现货市场比只是毛毛雨,但至少相当于1000万桶的原油最终获得了超级大的仓储补偿费用,这就是最终结算日犯错误金融投资者的账单。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UCO":1,"SCO":1,"DWTIF":0.6,"DDG":0.6,"DWT":0.6,"USO":1,"UWTIF":1,"DUG":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5661,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}