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- 冯榕冯榕
  ·2021-09-14
  **
  摩根士丹利：首予Lucid Group(LCID)减持评级目标价12美元
  凤凰网港股|摩根士丹利分析师Adam Jonas发表研报表示，首予Lucid Group(LCID)减持评级，目标价12美元。Jonas在报告中指出，Lucid是一家高度垂直整合的纯电动汽车公司，其通过关键创新解决了特斯拉(TSLA)及以上级别的高端市场。分析师表示，以公司310亿美元的估值而言，市场似乎认为Lucid将实现非常高的市场份额、利润率。分析师认为，Lucid可以在竞争激烈的市场中占据持续有利的位置，但在现阶段，Lucid要想和更多成熟的电动汽车巨头齐头并进，并实现其估值，还有许多障碍要面对。
  摩根士丹利：首予Lucid Group(LCID)减持评级目标价12美元
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- 冯榕冯榕
  ·2021-06-11
  Yidijimao
  鸿蒙概念爆炒，一地鸡毛还有多远？
  割我韭菜，没门！
  鸿蒙概念爆炒，一地鸡毛还有多远？
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- 冯榕冯榕
  ·2021-05-16
  You are a foolish man!
  Why I'll Never Own Carnival Cruise Stock
  The cruise line will face choppy seas for a long time to come.
  Why I'll Never Own Carnival Cruise Stock
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20:56","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"摩根士丹利：首予Lucid Group(LCID)减持评级 目标价12美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2167055694","media":"凤凰网港股","summary":"凤凰网港股|摩根士丹利分析师Adam Jonas发表研报表示，首予Lucid Group(LCID)减持评级，目标价12美元。Jonas在报告中指出，Lucid是一家高度垂直整合的纯电动汽车公司，其通过关键创新解决了特斯拉(TSLA)及以上级别的高端市场。分析师表示，以公司310亿美元的估值而言，市场似乎认为Lucid将实现非常高的市场份额、利润率。分析师认为，Lucid可以在竞争激烈的市场中占据持续有利的位置，但在现阶段，Lucid要想和更多成熟的电动汽车巨头齐头并进，并实现其估值，还有许多障碍要面对。","content":"<html><body><p><font size=\"3\">凤凰网港股|<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师Adam Jonas发表研报表示，首予Lucid Group(LCID)减持评级，目标价12美元。</span></font></p><p><span><font size=\"3\">Jonas在报告中指出，Lucid是一家高度垂直整合的纯电动汽车公司，其通过关键创新解决了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>(TSLA)及以上级别的高端市场。分析师表示，以公司310亿美元的估值而言，市场似乎认为Lucid将实现非常高的市场份额、利润率。分析师认为，Lucid可以在竞争激烈的市场中占据持续有利的位置，但在现阶段，Lucid要想和更多成熟的电动汽车巨头齐头并进，并实现其估值，还有许多障碍要面对。</font></span></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>摩根士丹利：首予Lucid Group(LCID)减持评级 目标价12美元</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1039806269\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6fb647077f1ce46dc341fc35c26e817);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">凤凰网港股 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-09-14 20:56</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p><font size=\"3\">凤凰网港股|<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师Adam Jonas发表研报表示，首予Lucid Group(LCID)减持评级，目标价12美元。</span></font></p><p><span><font size=\"3\">Jonas在报告中指出，Lucid是一家高度垂直整合的纯电动汽车公司，其通过关键创新解决了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>(TSLA)及以上级别的高端市场。分析师表示，以公司310亿美元的估值而言，市场似乎认为Lucid将实现非常高的市场份额、利润率。分析师认为，Lucid可以在竞争激烈的市场中占据持续有利的位置，但在现阶段，Lucid要想和更多成熟的电动汽车巨头齐头并进，并实现其估值，还有许多障碍要面对。</font></span></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2488184ce4815610e2426c10250da75","relate_stocks":{"LCID":"Lucid Group Inc"},"source_url":"http://hknews.szfuit.com/newRssInfo/feed?original_id=dd6cf347fc7b82b8aa3af02951ca9611","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2167055694","content_text":"凤凰网港股|摩根士丹利分析师Adam Jonas发表研报表示，首予Lucid Group(LCID)减持评级，目标价12美元。Jonas在报告中指出，Lucid是一家高度垂直整合的纯电动汽车公司，其通过关键创新解决了特斯拉(TSLA)及以上级别的高端市场。分析师表示，以公司310亿美元的估值而言，市场似乎认为Lucid将实现非常高的市场份额、利润率。分析师认为，Lucid可以在竞争激烈的市场中占据持续有利的位置，但在现阶段，Lucid要想和更多成熟的电动汽车巨头齐头并进，并实现其估值，还有许多障碍要面对。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":368,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181575767,"gmtCreate":1623404403059,"gmtModify":1704202686576,"author":{"id":"3475143061422691","authorId":"3475143061422691","name":"冯榕","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3475143061422691","idStr":"3475143061422691"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yidijimao&nbsp;","listText":"Yidijimao&nbsp;","text":"Yidijimao","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181575767","repostId":"2142221374","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2142221374","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1623373443,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2142221374?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-11 09:04","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"鸿蒙概念爆炒，一地鸡毛还有多远？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2142221374","media":"格隆汇","summary":"割我韭菜，没门！","content":"<p><b>原文首发于6月10日</b></p>\n<p>今天华为鸿蒙概念全线崛起，万得上面的鸿蒙指数上涨了超过8%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bc037b4162526114358c3b3e89962c7\" tg-width=\"837\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>相关概念股也是全线涨停，很多都是创业板20%的那种涨停。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5116d5d5ef3fe6f2e4abc14cf79bd55\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>比如和华为同为鸿蒙开放源自开源基金会成员的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300339\">润和软件</a>上涨20%，中软国际上涨18.8%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65c85f8cce60503b9a6ca4a5bbf56ad3\" tg-width=\"792\" tg-height=\"771\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>市场认为这些公司作为基金会的初始成员，深度参与鸿蒙系统的基础搭建，未来将持续参与整个开源社区的管理和投入，会持续从中获益。</b></p>\n<p>在消息上面，目前有多家银行和超过30家的券商全面支持鸿蒙。另外Harmony OS2升级用户7天已破千万，有望完成之前内部既定的今年底鸿蒙操作系统搭载设备数量3亿台的目标，其中2亿台华为手机，1亿台其他品牌手机。</p>\n<h3>1</h3>\n<h3><b>安卓 vs iOS，操作系统的独二玩家</b></h3>\n<p>目前操作系统中，主流的就安卓和iOS，占了大约98%的市场份额，剩下的基本就是Windows phone了，而之前如日中天的塞班及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBRY\">黑莓</a>系统，则随着<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">诺基亚</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">黑莓</a>手机的没落，退出了竞争行列。</p>\n<p>而在这98%的市场中，安卓占了75%，剩下的就是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>的iOS了。根据SensorTower年初的数据，苹果App Store 2020年收入达到732亿美元，相比于比2019的555亿美元增了长30.3%。体现出了强大的吸金力，连巴菲特都要把苹果买成第一大重仓股。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/220cfb1a357e521a9e808e05b8e8dc7d\" tg-width=\"856\" tg-height=\"630\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">而安卓虽然是开源系统，但是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>通过其开发的GMS，将安卓生态的所有产品都锁定在其版图之中，牢牢卡住安卓通用软件流量的入口，形成了垄断地位。比如谷歌的应用商店Play Store，谷歌的邮箱Gmail，谷歌地图，视频软件油管等等。</p>\n<p>然后通过巨额流量进行广告变现，虽然因为这些绑定的行为在2018年遭到了欧盟43.4亿欧元的天价罚单，但谷歌仍然通过收取安卓系统许可费进行直接变现，每台手机2.5-40美金不等，如果默认绑定谷歌全家桶则可以豁免该项费用。</p>\n<p>所以作为用户和机器之间的唯一的操作系统，形成了实质性的垄断，最后都能通过各种方法把钱收上来。</p>\n<p><b>操作系统不论在现在的移动互联时代，还是上一个PC时代，甚至未来的万物互联时代，都将是最赚钱的商业模式，可能没有之一。</b>因为操作系统的强大生态力量，商业地位难以撼动，连其他互联网巨头都难以成功。所以纷纷在汽车OS以及未来IOT生态领域发力，想抢占下一个时代。</p>\n<p>说回安卓，目前中国主流安卓手机的手机商包括华为、 OPPO、 vivo、&nbsp;小米，其中2017年至2020年期间，华为智能手机出货量从0.9亿台增长至1.2亿台，成为了安卓阵营的头部玩家。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c56ac00be7d10f9328d164480d2ab96\" tg-width=\"855\" tg-height=\"634\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">但是后面由于时代的原因，华为被迫进行了最艰难的自己研发操作系统。</p>\n<h3>2</h3>\n<h3><b>套壳系统的争议与安卓阵营的失声</b></h3>\n<p>很多人说，鸿蒙就是安卓的套壳系统。关于鸿蒙和安卓的关系，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">知乎</a>上面有很多大神已经进行了充分探讨，的确鸿蒙不是自主开发的操作系统，是基于 AOSP（Android Open-Source Project）开发的，但是也有相当部分是属于自主代码，除开手机OS，物联网部分确实是自主研发。</p>\n<p>根据华为以往历史，就算一开始抄了些东西（比如早期的交换机），但是它有办法最终发展成自主技术体系，而鸿蒙OS在目前应该说的确还是一个过渡期的产品，毕竟需要考虑到众多的软件开放商不会过多投入人力去专门支持一个新的操作系统。</p>\n<p>有人用特修斯之船悖论来描述现在的这种争议。特修斯之船最早出自普鲁塔克的记载，它描述的是一艘可以在海上航行几百年的船，归功于不间断的维修和替换部件。只要一块木板腐烂了，它就会被替换掉，以此类推，直到所有的功能部件都不是最开始的那些了。</p>\n<p>问题是，最终产生的这艘船是否还是原来的那艘特修斯之船，还是一艘完全不同的船？如果不是原来的船，那么在什么时候它不再是原来的船了？</p>\n<p>鸿蒙作为特殊时代的产物，鸿蒙的诞生拥有了一些悲情英雄的色彩，我们<b>不应该用技术洁癖去探讨到底是不是安卓套壳，只要是谷歌不来起诉，我觉得都不必为这事烦扰，我们应该祝福它并希望它取得最大程度的成功。</b></p>\n<p>但随之而来的问题是，其他厂商跟不跟，小米OV等其他安卓机是否会选择采用鸿蒙系统？</p>\n<p>这个我觉得在相当的一段时间内都不会发生。和鸿蒙合作，等于和谷歌交恶，国内影响不大，但是海外还是非常依赖谷歌生态的GMS，而哪个手机厂商又愿意放弃海外市场呢？</p>\n<p>其次，如果直接预装HarmonyOS，HarmonyOS尚未开源（开源的是那个基金会的OpenHarmony，类似于安卓的ASOP），使用手机鸿蒙必然要搭载华为的应用市场和hms。大家都知道国内的游戏渠道服都是五五分账，这么一大笔利润决然不可能让给别人，也是阻拦其他手机厂使用手机鸿蒙的最大障碍。而其他手机厂商短期也不会投入资源去开发基于OpenHarmony的操作系统。</p>\n<p>华为作为曾经国内占据手机半壁江山的霸主，没有人愿意把命脉捏在友商手里。试想一个场景，如果所有的手机厂商都使用了手机鸿蒙，而华为因为某种原因解禁了，那么此时国内手机行业华为就是裁判员+运动员的身份，可以轻易通过限制其他厂家的手机系统来实现优势，此时其他手机厂商再想回头拾回丢下的安卓魔改为时已晚。</p>\n<p>这里说明一点，为什么手机厂宁愿把命脉交给谷歌呢。首先，国内的安卓自成体系，不受谷歌的影响，哪怕谷歌禁用gms和闭源安卓12以后的版本，各家也能自己更新去应对，基本不会对国内的安卓市场有影响。</p>\n<p>其次，海外因为gms的原因，所有手机厂都已经被谷歌掐住了脖子，这已经是事实了。手机厂不会再在国内使用手机鸿蒙，给国内的市场再添一个被卡住的脖子。</p>\n<h3>3</h3>\n<h3><b>沾个边就能涨？</b></h3>\n<p>抛开技术层面的东西，我们来看二级市场的表现。二级市场不会管上面的一切，只要三根阳线，就能改变信阳。</p>\n<p>这是天风总结的鸿蒙概念股。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b67632208a72103fb6381db8966e3804\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">我们来看下中间的一些走势：</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300598\">诚迈科技</a>：<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20598bd927347b0d16bcb537ca39b9d6\" tg-width=\"962\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">润和软件：<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5137d8383f1c3414d337fc54fe680d2a\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"630\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">九联科技：<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/282de331496bc3a764adf2c7444ea3c4\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"629\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">万兴科技：<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dad9fcb6cc3f92f582526eb3ab22c836\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">最近鸿蒙概念股都是这样的走势。</p>\n<p>其实很多鸿蒙概念股只是说公司旗下有产品入驻鸿蒙体系，这和我说我要开发一个苹果的APP是一样的道理。另一些只是和华为有些业务往来，华为这么大个公司谁还没点业务往来了。但是，二级市场就是如此疯狂。</p>\n<p>在股价大涨之下，很多公司也都发布了股价异常波动的提示公告。这些公司也很诚实，从公告中，我们可以基本得出这样的结论，鸿蒙对这些公司的业绩增长有限。</p>\n<p>比如同在基金会的润和软件也发布了公告，中间第五点，也说明了与鸿蒙的合作关系，但重点在于，公司自己明确表达鸿蒙相关业务在手订单占比较小，不会对公司业绩产生重大影响。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f2201fd9f9179fac6739a56cfc77143\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"186\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">又比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688609\">九联科技</a>的公告：目前公司基于鸿蒙系统的投入开发，智慧门铃等智慧家庭产品，处在产品开发阶段还未上市，未形成相关销售收入，未来市场存在不确定因素。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c86b0a8c09179965837cced43338574\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"187\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">只能说，我们祝福鸿蒙，但有人想利用这个概念割我韭菜，没门！</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>鸿蒙概念爆炒，一地鸡毛还有多远？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n鸿蒙概念爆炒，一地鸡毛还有多远？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-11 09:04 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.gelonghui.com/p/469818><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>原文首发于6月10日\n今天华为鸿蒙概念全线崛起，万得上面的鸿蒙指数上涨了超过8%。\n\n相关概念股也是全线涨停，很多都是创业板20%的那种涨停。\n\n比如和华为同为鸿蒙开放源自开源基金会成员的润和软件上涨20%，中软国际上涨18.8%。\n\n市场认为这些公司作为基金会的初始成员，深度参与鸿蒙系统的基础搭建，未来将持续参与整个开源社区的管理和投入，会持续从中获益。\n在消息上面，目前有多家银行和超过30家的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/469818\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ce4570430c67a11700e7daf19b74e07","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","09086":"华夏纳指-U","AAPL":"苹果","03086":"华夏纳指","GOOG":"谷歌","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/469818","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2142221374","content_text":"原文首发于6月10日\n今天华为鸿蒙概念全线崛起，万得上面的鸿蒙指数上涨了超过8%。\n\n相关概念股也是全线涨停，很多都是创业板20%的那种涨停。\n\n比如和华为同为鸿蒙开放源自开源基金会成员的润和软件上涨20%，中软国际上涨18.8%。\n\n市场认为这些公司作为基金会的初始成员，深度参与鸿蒙系统的基础搭建，未来将持续参与整个开源社区的管理和投入，会持续从中获益。\n在消息上面，目前有多家银行和超过30家的券商全面支持鸿蒙。另外Harmony OS2升级用户7天已破千万，有望完成之前内部既定的今年底鸿蒙操作系统搭载设备数量3亿台的目标，其中2亿台华为手机，1亿台其他品牌手机。\n1\n安卓 vs iOS，操作系统的独二玩家\n目前操作系统中，主流的就安卓和iOS，占了大约98%的市场份额，剩下的基本就是Windows phone了，而之前如日中天的塞班及黑莓系统，则随着诺基亚和黑莓手机的没落，退出了竞争行列。\n而在这98%的市场中，安卓占了75%，剩下的就是苹果的iOS了。根据SensorTower年初的数据，苹果App Store 2020年收入达到732亿美元，相比于比2019的555亿美元增了长30.3%。体现出了强大的吸金力，连巴菲特都要把苹果买成第一大重仓股。而安卓虽然是开源系统，但是谷歌通过其开发的GMS，将安卓生态的所有产品都锁定在其版图之中，牢牢卡住安卓通用软件流量的入口，形成了垄断地位。比如谷歌的应用商店Play Store，谷歌的邮箱Gmail，谷歌地图，视频软件油管等等。\n然后通过巨额流量进行广告变现，虽然因为这些绑定的行为在2018年遭到了欧盟43.4亿欧元的天价罚单，但谷歌仍然通过收取安卓系统许可费进行直接变现，每台手机2.5-40美金不等，如果默认绑定谷歌全家桶则可以豁免该项费用。\n所以作为用户和机器之间的唯一的操作系统，形成了实质性的垄断，最后都能通过各种方法把钱收上来。\n操作系统不论在现在的移动互联时代，还是上一个PC时代，甚至未来的万物互联时代，都将是最赚钱的商业模式，可能没有之一。因为操作系统的强大生态力量，商业地位难以撼动，连其他互联网巨头都难以成功。所以纷纷在汽车OS以及未来IOT生态领域发力，想抢占下一个时代。\n说回安卓，目前中国主流安卓手机的手机商包括华为、 OPPO、 vivo、 小米，其中2017年至2020年期间，华为智能手机出货量从0.9亿台增长至1.2亿台，成为了安卓阵营的头部玩家。但是后面由于时代的原因，华为被迫进行了最艰难的自己研发操作系统。\n2\n套壳系统的争议与安卓阵营的失声\n很多人说，鸿蒙就是安卓的套壳系统。关于鸿蒙和安卓的关系，知乎上面有很多大神已经进行了充分探讨，的确鸿蒙不是自主开发的操作系统，是基于 AOSP（Android Open-Source Project）开发的，但是也有相当部分是属于自主代码，除开手机OS，物联网部分确实是自主研发。\n根据华为以往历史，就算一开始抄了些东西（比如早期的交换机），但是它有办法最终发展成自主技术体系，而鸿蒙OS在目前应该说的确还是一个过渡期的产品，毕竟需要考虑到众多的软件开放商不会过多投入人力去专门支持一个新的操作系统。\n有人用特修斯之船悖论来描述现在的这种争议。特修斯之船最早出自普鲁塔克的记载，它描述的是一艘可以在海上航行几百年的船，归功于不间断的维修和替换部件。只要一块木板腐烂了，它就会被替换掉，以此类推，直到所有的功能部件都不是最开始的那些了。\n问题是，最终产生的这艘船是否还是原来的那艘特修斯之船，还是一艘完全不同的船？如果不是原来的船，那么在什么时候它不再是原来的船了？\n鸿蒙作为特殊时代的产物，鸿蒙的诞生拥有了一些悲情英雄的色彩，我们不应该用技术洁癖去探讨到底是不是安卓套壳，只要是谷歌不来起诉，我觉得都不必为这事烦扰，我们应该祝福它并希望它取得最大程度的成功。\n但随之而来的问题是，其他厂商跟不跟，小米OV等其他安卓机是否会选择采用鸿蒙系统？\n这个我觉得在相当的一段时间内都不会发生。和鸿蒙合作，等于和谷歌交恶，国内影响不大，但是海外还是非常依赖谷歌生态的GMS，而哪个手机厂商又愿意放弃海外市场呢？\n其次，如果直接预装HarmonyOS，HarmonyOS尚未开源（开源的是那个基金会的OpenHarmony，类似于安卓的ASOP），使用手机鸿蒙必然要搭载华为的应用市场和hms。大家都知道国内的游戏渠道服都是五五分账，这么一大笔利润决然不可能让给别人，也是阻拦其他手机厂使用手机鸿蒙的最大障碍。而其他手机厂商短期也不会投入资源去开发基于OpenHarmony的操作系统。\n华为作为曾经国内占据手机半壁江山的霸主，没有人愿意把命脉捏在友商手里。试想一个场景，如果所有的手机厂商都使用了手机鸿蒙，而华为因为某种原因解禁了，那么此时国内手机行业华为就是裁判员+运动员的身份，可以轻易通过限制其他厂家的手机系统来实现优势，此时其他手机厂商再想回头拾回丢下的安卓魔改为时已晚。\n这里说明一点，为什么手机厂宁愿把命脉交给谷歌呢。首先，国内的安卓自成体系，不受谷歌的影响，哪怕谷歌禁用gms和闭源安卓12以后的版本，各家也能自己更新去应对，基本不会对国内的安卓市场有影响。\n其次，海外因为gms的原因，所有手机厂都已经被谷歌掐住了脖子，这已经是事实了。手机厂不会再在国内使用手机鸿蒙，给国内的市场再添一个被卡住的脖子。\n3\n沾个边就能涨？\n抛开技术层面的东西，我们来看二级市场的表现。二级市场不会管上面的一切，只要三根阳线，就能改变信阳。\n这是天风总结的鸿蒙概念股。我们来看下中间的一些走势：\n诚迈科技：润和软件：九联科技：万兴科技：最近鸿蒙概念股都是这样的走势。\n其实很多鸿蒙概念股只是说公司旗下有产品入驻鸿蒙体系，这和我说我要开发一个苹果的APP是一样的道理。另一些只是和华为有些业务往来，华为这么大个公司谁还没点业务往来了。但是，二级市场就是如此疯狂。\n在股价大涨之下，很多公司也都发布了股价异常波动的提示公告。这些公司也很诚实，从公告中，我们可以基本得出这样的结论，鸿蒙对这些公司的业绩增长有限。\n比如同在基金会的润和软件也发布了公告，中间第五点，也说明了与鸿蒙的合作关系，但重点在于，公司自己明确表达鸿蒙相关业务在手订单占比较小，不会对公司业绩产生重大影响。又比如九联科技的公告：目前公司基于鸿蒙系统的投入开发，智慧门铃等智慧家庭产品，处在产品开发阶段还未上市，未形成相关销售收入，未来市场存在不确定因素。只能说，我们祝福鸿蒙，但有人想利用这个概念割我韭菜，没门！","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":410,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192373816,"gmtCreate":1621153443135,"gmtModify":1704353443070,"author":{"id":"3475143061422691","authorId":"3475143061422691","name":"冯榕","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3475143061422691","idStr":"3475143061422691"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"You are a foolish man!","listText":"You are a foolish man!","text":"You are a foolish man!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192373816","repostId":"2135898682","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2135898682","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1621008000,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2135898682?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-15 00:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why I'll Never Own Carnival Cruise Stock","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2135898682","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The cruise line will face choppy seas for a long time to come.","content":"<html><body><span>\n<p>At first glance, saying \"never\" to sailing with <strong>Carnival </strong><span>(NYSE:CCL)</span> <span>(NYSE:CUK)</span> stock seems like an emotional decision. For all of its problems, Carnival remains the largest cruise line operator by market cap, and it holds the needed resources to survive a shipwreck in the near term. However, its time in port will probably have a lasting impact on the company for a long time to come, making it difficult for the leisure stock to gain traction long-term.</p>\n<div><img src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F626593%2Fgettyimages-987366650_xzUTu31.jpg&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize\" srcset=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A//g.foolcdn.com/editorial/images/626593/gettyimages-987366650_xzUTu31.jpg&amp;w=300&amp;op=resize 300w, https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A//g.foolcdn.com/editorial/images/626593/gettyimages-987366650_xzUTu31.jpg&amp;w=1000&amp;op=resize 1000w, https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A//g.foolcdn.com/editorial/images/626593/gettyimages-987366650_xzUTu31.jpg&amp;w=2000&amp;op=resize 2000w\"/>\n<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>\n</div>\n<h2>Carnival will have to navigate rough waters for years to come</h2>\n<p>COVID-19 will eventually fade from the headlines, and tourists will probably return to cruising. The crisis may even <em>benefit </em>Carnival in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> key respect. The pandemic has permanently shipwrecked some smaller cruise companies that could not stay afloat without revenue. As the industry reemerges, Carnival could face less competition and possibly pick up ships from these defunct operators on the cheap.</p>\n<p>However, the industry has remained shuttered for over a year. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has offered a possible mid-July start date, according to what a CDC spokesperson told <em>USA Today</em>. Since almost 60% of American adults have received at least <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, cruise lines could finally get what they want in the form of a relaunch. Nonetheless, since the CDC has pushed this date back repeatedly, investors and travelers may not believe this sail date until they see ships leaving port.</p>\n<p>Moreover, investors cannot assume that cruises will return to full capacity instantly. The fact that Carnival has advertised many cruises for slightly above half price speaks to the fact that it will have to work to earn the trust and the business of passengers.</p>\n<p>Finally, even as the ships return to pre-pandemic passenger numbers, cruising is not a high-margin industry. In 2019, before the pandemic, Carnival earned about $3 billion off of approximately $20.8 billion in revenue. This 14% net margin leaves little room for prolonged industry slowdowns.</p><div></div>\n<h2>Carnival's financial situation</h2>\n<p>Unfortunately, the industry shutdown has not sheltered Carnival from its massive fixed costs. The company brought in only $26 million in the first quarter of 2021. Though it offloaded 72% of its operating expenses, these costs amounted to about $1.5 billion during the period. Also, the growing need for debt financing led to about $400 million in interest expenses. Along with its other costs, the company lost nearly $2 billion during that period.</p>\n<p>Investors should also remember that cruise ships remain in port, and they can expect at least one more quarter of negligible revenue.</p>\n<p>Carnival holds about $11.5 billion in liquidity, meaning it can endure another year of this. Still, maintaining an idle fleet has come at a tremendous cost. It had to issue a substantial amount of new shares. Now, almost 1.1 billion shares trade, well above the 684 million shares available just one year ago. Moreover, long-term debt now stands at more than $26.5 billion versus $9.7 billion before the pandemic started. Paying back those obligations will take years.</p>\n<p>The problem for investors is that the stock behaves as if it has already overcome this challenge. Indeed, Carnival has lost half of its value since the beginning of 2020. However, over the last 12 months, it has risen by more than 80%. If measured from the low in April 2020, it has surged by an astounding 225%.</p><div></div>\n<p><img src=\"https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5fe82c05adca631858557c09b8bdb189.png\"/>Data by YCharts.</p>\n<p>Moreover, with only negligible revenue, earnings and sales multiples are not applicable. Still, Carnival sells for about 1.5 times its book value, the value of the company after subtracting liabilities from assets. This makes the stock seem pricy considering that it will probably not bring in significant amounts of revenue until at least the third quarter.</p>\n<h2>The state of Carnival</h2>\n<p>Admittedly, Carnival's position as the largest cruise company and its cash position make its survival likely. However, survival does not mean prosperity. And even under the best of circumstances, the lack of revenue during the pandemic will probably strain the balance sheet for years or possibly decades into the future. Even if Carnival can return to profitability, this challenge will make Carnival a stock many investors will never buy.</p>\n<div></div>\n</span></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why I'll Never Own Carnival Cruise Stock</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy I'll Never Own Carnival Cruise Stock\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-15 00:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/15/why-ill-never-own-carnival-cruise-stock/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>At first glance, saying \"never\" to sailing with Carnival (NYSE:CCL) (NYSE:CUK) stock seems like an emotional decision. For all of its problems, Carnival remains the largest cruise line operator by ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/15/why-ill-never-own-carnival-cruise-stock/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CCL":"嘉年华邮轮"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/15/why-ill-never-own-carnival-cruise-stock/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2135898682","content_text":"At first glance, saying \"never\" to sailing with Carnival (NYSE:CCL) (NYSE:CUK) stock seems like an emotional decision. For all of its problems, Carnival remains the largest cruise line operator by market cap, and it holds the needed resources to survive a shipwreck in the near term. However, its time in port will probably have a lasting impact on the company for a long time to come, making it difficult for the leisure stock to gain traction long-term.\n\nImage source: Getty Images.\n\nCarnival will have to navigate rough waters for years to come\nCOVID-19 will eventually fade from the headlines, and tourists will probably return to cruising. The crisis may even benefit Carnival in one key respect. The pandemic has permanently shipwrecked some smaller cruise companies that could not stay afloat without revenue. As the industry reemerges, Carnival could face less competition and possibly pick up ships from these defunct operators on the cheap.\nHowever, the industry has remained shuttered for over a year. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has offered a possible mid-July start date, according to what a CDC spokesperson told USA Today. Since almost 60% of American adults have received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, cruise lines could finally get what they want in the form of a relaunch. Nonetheless, since the CDC has pushed this date back repeatedly, investors and travelers may not believe this sail date until they see ships leaving port.\nMoreover, investors cannot assume that cruises will return to full capacity instantly. The fact that Carnival has advertised many cruises for slightly above half price speaks to the fact that it will have to work to earn the trust and the business of passengers.\nFinally, even as the ships return to pre-pandemic passenger numbers, cruising is not a high-margin industry. In 2019, before the pandemic, Carnival earned about $3 billion off of approximately $20.8 billion in revenue. This 14% net margin leaves little room for prolonged industry slowdowns.\nCarnival's financial situation\nUnfortunately, the industry shutdown has not sheltered Carnival from its massive fixed costs. The company brought in only $26 million in the first quarter of 2021. Though it offloaded 72% of its operating expenses, these costs amounted to about $1.5 billion during the period. Also, the growing need for debt financing led to about $400 million in interest expenses. Along with its other costs, the company lost nearly $2 billion during that period.\nInvestors should also remember that cruise ships remain in port, and they can expect at least one more quarter of negligible revenue.\nCarnival holds about $11.5 billion in liquidity, meaning it can endure another year of this. Still, maintaining an idle fleet has come at a tremendous cost. It had to issue a substantial amount of new shares. Now, almost 1.1 billion shares trade, well above the 684 million shares available just one year ago. Moreover, long-term debt now stands at more than $26.5 billion versus $9.7 billion before the pandemic started. Paying back those obligations will take years.\nThe problem for investors is that the stock behaves as if it has already overcome this challenge. Indeed, Carnival has lost half of its value since the beginning of 2020. However, over the last 12 months, it has risen by more than 80%. If measured from the low in April 2020, it has surged by an astounding 225%.\nData by YCharts.\nMoreover, with only negligible revenue, earnings and sales multiples are not applicable. Still, Carnival sells for about 1.5 times its book value, the value of the company after subtracting liabilities from assets. This makes the stock seem pricy considering that it will probably not bring in significant amounts of revenue until at least the third quarter.\nThe state of Carnival\nAdmittedly, Carnival's position as the largest cruise company and its cash position make its survival likely. However, survival does not mean prosperity. And even under the best of circumstances, the lack of revenue during the pandemic will probably strain the balance sheet for years or possibly decades into the future. Even if Carnival can return to profitability, this challenge will make Carnival a stock many investors will never buy.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":326,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}