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- CeavaCeava
  ·2023-07-14
  $Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$
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- CeavaCeava
  ·2020-03-01
  ???
  Last night, they sold everything and surrendered en masse.
  这看上去就像是世界末日，所有的投资者都缴械投降了。
  Last night, they sold everything and surrendered en masse.
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLRY\">$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLRY\">$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197712877133920","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2663,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":983051629,"gmtCreate":1583003425061,"gmtModify":1705289316295,"author":{"id":"3475537229478550","authorId":"3475537229478550","name":"Ceava","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b9e8543510ff9ad81204bbd7ea41e9d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3475537229478550","idStr":"3475537229478550"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/983051629","repostId":"2015382300","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2015382300","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1582976276,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2015382300?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2020-02-29 19:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Last night, they sold everything and surrendered en masse.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2015382300","media":"格隆汇","summary":"这看上去就像是世界末日，所有的投资者都缴械投降了。","content":"<p><html><body>Author | Han Yangshu</p><p><span>Data Support<span>|</span>Pythagorean Big Data</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/b83a5-dec7af23-afc8-40e1-8cdc-b11f1ba86330.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>1</span></p><p><strong><span>They threw everything away.</span></strong></p><p><span>Yesterday, Friday, it was another day and night, with the world struggling without a trace. By 10:30 p.m., the last hope for retail investors, the leading US stock market, began its performance.</span></p><p><span>But the initial performance of the US stock market was trembling. Last night, I got the feeling that overseas investors were selling everything.</span></p><p><span>They dumped technology stocks.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>It once fell by more than 6%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It once fell by nearly 10%.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/891e1-de4a083b-bb1d-4595-80a0-0503de9e510d.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/33607-a9e470fe-16bd-4b9b-b5b4-34eb04ae713e.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>They dumped financial stocks.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Down 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It fell 4%.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/f2c5b-c6847299-f1fe-4eef-b3ff-22e22c92133e.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>They abandoned manufacturing.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>Down 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAT\">Caterpillar</a>It fell 3.4%.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/410d1-75b1decb-175c-4af4-a90b-cd7abaf2909f.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>They continued to dump oil,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>It fell another 4 points.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">ExxonMobil</a>It fell 3.6%.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/965b1-b8395728-a8dc-405a-9c0c-91f824beee50.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>They threw<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCD\">McDonald's</a>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">Disney</a>These consumer services stocks.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/c5fd3-f4c2c32b-46df-4c85-a4af-540d7194880d.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>If these stocks weren't sold innocently, they also sold...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>, thrown away<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">Procter and Gamble</a>The stock prices of both consumer giants fell by more than 6% at one point.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/9ce09-1ccc6fd6-32ed-4165-838f-a3ab34b5dd86.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>They didn't stop there; they started dumping targets that once seemed to benefit, such as Gilead and mask stocks.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/c2742-61a2218e-b5c0-4948-b1ca-df58f7807539.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>As if they weren't satisfied enough, they even sold gold, which plummeted by as much as 5% last night, marking its biggest single-day drop since 2011.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/525d1-6d508578-94da-4d9c-a8ad-7e5792fc803a.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>In short, last night they were selling off almost every asset except Treasury Bond.</span><span>Faced with the pandemic, they became incredibly humble, even willing to accept 10-year US Treasury bonds with a yield of only 1.12%.</span><span>If I remember correctly, this is the lowest yield in the history of 10-year US Treasury bonds.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/a4a02-ef2354c7-c301-42d6-be50-a3ad2a3d5dba.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><strong><span>It looked like the end of the world, and all the investors had surrendered.</span></strong></p><p><span>2</span></p><p><strong><span>There is blood in the Street</span></strong></p><p><span>The market has been turbulent in recent years. From 2016 to now, except for 2017 when things were calm, there have been similar moments every year.</span></p><p><span>Brexit at the end of June 2016,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">HSBC</a>It once fell by 12 percentage points. In November 2016, Trump was unexpectedly elected, and the global market was stunned. In the third quarter of 2018, Moutai was released, and blue-chip stocks experienced a wave of limit-down days. On August 6 last year, a series of negative news from China and the United States also weighed on the market.</span></p><p><strong><span>Faced with these events, investors surrender, and then opportunities to buy at the bottom often arise.</span></strong></p><p><span>This bargain-buying opportunity reminds me of Templeton, who loved to buy when Wall Street was bleeding profusely. His original words were...<strong>there is blood in the street.</strong></span><span>However, I couldn't find out how he explained what a bloody market was.</span></p><p><span>My own understanding is,<strong>The bloodshed means that emotions have completely taken over stock prices, and emotions have reached their peak. Due to the panic caused by emotions, the market has sold off almost all assets, regardless of whether they are good or bad, or whether they have an impact or not.</strong></span></p><p><strong><span>This sign was evident in the US stock market last night.</span></strong></p><p><span>In fact, looking at the subsequent performance of US stocks, many stocks recovered their losses. Among the three major indices, the Nasdaq turned positive, and the declines of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 narrowed significantly.</span></p><p><span>What's particularly interesting is that mask stocks failed to recover last night, and Gilead still fell 4 percentage points. However, cruise ship stocks, which were hit hardest by the pandemic, were the winners last night. Carnival, the parent company of the Diamond, surged 5 percentage points, and another cruise line, Norwegian Cruises (NCLH.N), surged 7 percentage points.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/3f25f-2bddeeb7-45b3-4aef-92fa-a99fec5d55fc.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/8c22e-4da41835-4ccd-49bf-a53d-c5f1d3686154.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/aaf6f-e65c65a3-04ba-4eef-a50b-d83a7bcbfdea.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><strong><span>The message this conveys is,</span></strong><span><strong>Funds close their positions, take profits, and leave; bulls turn short, and shorts turn long.</strong></span><strong><span>From a capital perspective, the panic sell-off caused by this round of overseas epidemics has temporarily come to an end.</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>At least in the short term, I believe the stock market has a good chance of rebounding.</span></strong></p><p><span>Of course, I believe that buying at the bottom at this time is not an easy decision for most people.</span><span>This is because, firstly, when the market is bleeding profusely, my blood is also flowing on the ground. Unless I have exceptionally good character and dodge it, my blood is also flowing at that time.</span><span>This loss will be very painful.</span></p><p><strong><span>The second point is that the pandemic is still ongoing, and any apocalyptic scene can be depicted if you dare to imagine it.</span></strong></p><p><span>I won't go into detail about the first point, because how to solve this discomfort is a matter of personal personality.</span><span>The second point could be discussed in more detail.</span></p><p><span>3</span><strong></strong></p><p><strong><span>Will the US stock market crash?</span></strong></p><p><span>Secondly, if you think about it carefully, the real guiding principle is whether the US stock market will collapse.</span></p><p><strong><span>When new retail investors face the uncertainty of the pandemic and this sharp decline, they are certainly afraid. But we old retail investors know that no matter how we describe its terrifying nature, it will only be a short-term disturbance and will eventually pass.</span></strong></p><p><span>What makes us uneasy is that it happened at the peak of a decade-long bull market in the US stock market. On February 19, the US stock market hit a record high, and then within a week, it fell by 13 or 14 points.</span><strong><span>Chives and sickles were switched in an instant.</span></strong></p><p><span>If the US stock market crashes, at least the large blue-chip stocks in the A-share market with strong ties to foreign capital will not be spared. Those who say that if the US stock market crashes, funds will flow to the A-share market, just listen to that kind of nonsense.</span></p><p><span>I've seen a lot of things about the US stock market crash these past two days, and I've found that people are easy to fantasize and imagine a lot of things for themselves.</span><span>A crash is essentially a question of whether to kill valuations, profits, and how much to kill.</span></p><p><span>What is the current valuation of US stocks?</span><span>The three major U.S. stock indices are: the Dow Jones Industrial Average (20x), the S&P 500 (22x), and the Nasdaq Composite (33x)</span></p><p><span>The most representative dynamic valuation of the S&P 500 is 22 times. Excluding outliers, 22 times is the upper limit of the valuation range of US stocks in the past, which seems relatively expensive.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/49da3-672326c7-a53c-4484-94d4-ef719eacd01f.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><strong><span>However, please note that US interest rates are currently at their lowest level in history. Last night, the Federal Reserve reassured the market by hinting at further rate cuts. Currently, expectations for a rate cut on March 18 have reached 100%, and there are even calls for a 50 basis point cut.</span><span>Considering interest rates, this valuation is definitely not expensive.</span></strong></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/1dce2-5bb9e4bd-6f6e-49ff-913a-987fb7a0ae33.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>Powell stated that the risks to economic activity from the pandemic are increasing and that timely action will be taken to support the economy.</span></p><p><span>(Source: Federal Reserve website)</span></p><p><span>Look at those giants in the US stock market again; Apple's assets are 22 times higher.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>28 times,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>30x, FB 30x<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>It's a bit more expensive, 83 times, but Wall Street has a different valuation method on Amazon.</span><span>So, generally speaking, the valuations of these giants in the US stock market are not expensive. With them in charge, how far can their valuations fall?</span></p><p><span>That would be killing off profits.</span><span>If the pandemic continues for six months, assuming profits decline by 50%, the second half of the year is normal, but the whole year will decline by 25%. How much should the stock price fall?</span></p><p><span>It's definitely not possible to sell 25%, because the 25% profit lost is not permanent, but temporary, only lost within a year. With such a single impact, a 10% loss is about right, but if you sell with some emotion, it's still around 15%.</span></p><p><span>So, in my personal opinion,<strong>The risk of a US stock market crash is not high. To add to that, we've seen a lot of talk about a US stock market crash these past few days, but the exact amount is uncertain. I'm referring to a relatively low requirement for a US stock market crash: a drop of more than 20% would enter a technical bear market.</strong></span></p><p><span>4</span></p><p><strong><span>What other risks?</span></strong></p><p><span>Of course, there is also the possibility that this short-term profit shock could develop into a full-blown debt crisis.</span><span>This crisis requires a prerequisite: high leverage.</span></p><p><span>Just like a person,<strong>If you don't have a lot of debt, you can use your savings to make up for it even if you lose income in the short term.</strong></span><strong><span>However, if you are heavily indebted, your ability to bear risks will be greatly reduced. Life is like walking a tightrope; you can't afford to make a single mistake.</span><span>For example, is there anyone currently unable to afford their monthly payments?</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>The same applies to an economy whose ability to withstand such short-term shocks is significantly reduced if it is highly indebted.</span></strong></p><p><span>The debt ratio of corporations in the United States is not low now, at around 75% in the third quarter of 2019, exceeding the level in 2008.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/4b24a-b98a64a6-cf1e-4666-addf-4cabecb84157.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>However, 70% of the US economy is contributed by household consumption, and the household debt ratio is also an important reference. Leverage has been reduced for the past decade, and it dropped to 76% in the third quarter of 2019.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/981b3-955b0e84-9601-4344-898d-f64c6bfe69c1.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>In comparison, the debt ratio of Chinese companies is 154%, far higher than that of the United States.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/cd696-d1f4381a-8089-49b3-ab5b-5a6c91a2fc9b.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>my country's household debt level may not seem high, but its share of GDP is not high. If calculated using disposable income, the household debt level in my country has reached 83%.</span></p><p><span>The same is true for other economies; the past decade has been a decade of global debt ballooning.</span><span>If the pandemic continues for a long time, it will pose a challenge to this leverage.</span></p><p><span>Relatively speaking, American companies are not under as much pressure as Chinese companies, but China has one advantage: the government can act quickly to prevent violent deleveraging (i.e., defaults), thereby preventing contagion and blocking systemic risks.</span><span>The same applies to individuals; for example, they can postpone their monthly payments.</span></p><p><span>I think Japan is under the most pressure.</span><span>The debt level was already high, and they invested a lot of money in the Olympics. They hoped to make a profit this year, but it might not be possible and it would all go down the drain.</span></p><p><span>Of course,<strong>For a country to develop into a debt crisis due to the pandemic, it would require a complete economic shutdown. We haven't seen this possibility yet, and I think the possibility is low.</strong></span></p><p><span>After all, problems exist, but they will eventually pass as long as the person who solves them is there.</span><span>We see that many countries and many people are working in their respective fields to solve it.</span></p><p><strong><span>The impact of the pandemic will be significant, but it will be smaller than the public imagines, especially than the volatile stock market.</span></strong></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night, they sold everything and surrendered en masse.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night, they sold everything and surrendered en masse.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2020-02-29 19:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>Author | Han Yangshu</p><p><span>Data Support<span>|</span>Pythagorean Big Data</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/b83a5-dec7af23-afc8-40e1-8cdc-b11f1ba86330.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>1</span></p><p><strong><span>They threw everything away.</span></strong></p><p><span>Yesterday, Friday, it was another day and night, with the world struggling without a trace. By 10:30 p.m., the last hope for retail investors, the leading US stock market, began its performance.</span></p><p><span>But the initial performance of the US stock market was trembling. Last night, I got the feeling that overseas investors were selling everything.</span></p><p><span>They dumped technology stocks.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>It once fell by more than 6%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It once fell by nearly 10%.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/891e1-de4a083b-bb1d-4595-80a0-0503de9e510d.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/33607-a9e470fe-16bd-4b9b-b5b4-34eb04ae713e.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>They dumped financial stocks.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Down 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It fell 4%.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/f2c5b-c6847299-f1fe-4eef-b3ff-22e22c92133e.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>They abandoned manufacturing.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>Down 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAT\">Caterpillar</a>It fell 3.4%.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/410d1-75b1decb-175c-4af4-a90b-cd7abaf2909f.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>They continued to dump oil,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>It fell another 4 points.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">ExxonMobil</a>It fell 3.6%.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/965b1-b8395728-a8dc-405a-9c0c-91f824beee50.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>They threw<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCD\">McDonald's</a>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">Disney</a>These consumer services stocks.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/c5fd3-f4c2c32b-46df-4c85-a4af-540d7194880d.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>If these stocks weren't sold innocently, they also sold...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>, thrown away<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">Procter and Gamble</a>The stock prices of both consumer giants fell by more than 6% at one point.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/9ce09-1ccc6fd6-32ed-4165-838f-a3ab34b5dd86.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>They didn't stop there; they started dumping targets that once seemed to benefit, such as Gilead and mask stocks.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/c2742-61a2218e-b5c0-4948-b1ca-df58f7807539.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>As if they weren't satisfied enough, they even sold gold, which plummeted by as much as 5% last night, marking its biggest single-day drop since 2011.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/525d1-6d508578-94da-4d9c-a8ad-7e5792fc803a.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>In short, last night they were selling off almost every asset except Treasury Bond.</span><span>Faced with the pandemic, they became incredibly humble, even willing to accept 10-year US Treasury bonds with a yield of only 1.12%.</span><span>If I remember correctly, this is the lowest yield in the history of 10-year US Treasury bonds.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/a4a02-ef2354c7-c301-42d6-be50-a3ad2a3d5dba.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><strong><span>It looked like the end of the world, and all the investors had surrendered.</span></strong></p><p><span>2</span></p><p><strong><span>There is blood in the Street</span></strong></p><p><span>The market has been turbulent in recent years. From 2016 to now, except for 2017 when things were calm, there have been similar moments every year.</span></p><p><span>Brexit at the end of June 2016,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">HSBC</a>It once fell by 12 percentage points. In November 2016, Trump was unexpectedly elected, and the global market was stunned. In the third quarter of 2018, Moutai was released, and blue-chip stocks experienced a wave of limit-down days. On August 6 last year, a series of negative news from China and the United States also weighed on the market.</span></p><p><strong><span>Faced with these events, investors surrender, and then opportunities to buy at the bottom often arise.</span></strong></p><p><span>This bargain-buying opportunity reminds me of Templeton, who loved to buy when Wall Street was bleeding profusely. His original words were...<strong>there is blood in the street.</strong></span><span>However, I couldn't find out how he explained what a bloody market was.</span></p><p><span>My own understanding is,<strong>The bloodshed means that emotions have completely taken over stock prices, and emotions have reached their peak. Due to the panic caused by emotions, the market has sold off almost all assets, regardless of whether they are good or bad, or whether they have an impact or not.</strong></span></p><p><strong><span>This sign was evident in the US stock market last night.</span></strong></p><p><span>In fact, looking at the subsequent performance of US stocks, many stocks recovered their losses. Among the three major indices, the Nasdaq turned positive, and the declines of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 narrowed significantly.</span></p><p><span>What's particularly interesting is that mask stocks failed to recover last night, and Gilead still fell 4 percentage points. However, cruise ship stocks, which were hit hardest by the pandemic, were the winners last night. Carnival, the parent company of the Diamond, surged 5 percentage points, and another cruise line, Norwegian Cruises (NCLH.N), surged 7 percentage points.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/3f25f-2bddeeb7-45b3-4aef-92fa-a99fec5d55fc.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/8c22e-4da41835-4ccd-49bf-a53d-c5f1d3686154.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/aaf6f-e65c65a3-04ba-4eef-a50b-d83a7bcbfdea.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><strong><span>The message this conveys is,</span></strong><span><strong>Funds close their positions, take profits, and leave; bulls turn short, and shorts turn long.</strong></span><strong><span>From a capital perspective, the panic sell-off caused by this round of overseas epidemics has temporarily come to an end.</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>At least in the short term, I believe the stock market has a good chance of rebounding.</span></strong></p><p><span>Of course, I believe that buying at the bottom at this time is not an easy decision for most people.</span><span>This is because, firstly, when the market is bleeding profusely, my blood is also flowing on the ground. Unless I have exceptionally good character and dodge it, my blood is also flowing at that time.</span><span>This loss will be very painful.</span></p><p><strong><span>The second point is that the pandemic is still ongoing, and any apocalyptic scene can be depicted if you dare to imagine it.</span></strong></p><p><span>I won't go into detail about the first point, because how to solve this discomfort is a matter of personal personality.</span><span>The second point could be discussed in more detail.</span></p><p><span>3</span><strong></strong></p><p><strong><span>Will the US stock market crash?</span></strong></p><p><span>Secondly, if you think about it carefully, the real guiding principle is whether the US stock market will collapse.</span></p><p><strong><span>When new retail investors face the uncertainty of the pandemic and this sharp decline, they are certainly afraid. But we old retail investors know that no matter how we describe its terrifying nature, it will only be a short-term disturbance and will eventually pass.</span></strong></p><p><span>What makes us uneasy is that it happened at the peak of a decade-long bull market in the US stock market. On February 19, the US stock market hit a record high, and then within a week, it fell by 13 or 14 points.</span><strong><span>Chives and sickles were switched in an instant.</span></strong></p><p><span>If the US stock market crashes, at least the large blue-chip stocks in the A-share market with strong ties to foreign capital will not be spared. Those who say that if the US stock market crashes, funds will flow to the A-share market, just listen to that kind of nonsense.</span></p><p><span>I've seen a lot of things about the US stock market crash these past two days, and I've found that people are easy to fantasize and imagine a lot of things for themselves.</span><span>A crash is essentially a question of whether to kill valuations, profits, and how much to kill.</span></p><p><span>What is the current valuation of US stocks?</span><span>The three major U.S. stock indices are: the Dow Jones Industrial Average (20x), the S&P 500 (22x), and the Nasdaq Composite (33x)</span></p><p><span>The most representative dynamic valuation of the S&P 500 is 22 times. Excluding outliers, 22 times is the upper limit of the valuation range of US stocks in the past, which seems relatively expensive.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/49da3-672326c7-a53c-4484-94d4-ef719eacd01f.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><strong><span>However, please note that US interest rates are currently at their lowest level in history. Last night, the Federal Reserve reassured the market by hinting at further rate cuts. Currently, expectations for a rate cut on March 18 have reached 100%, and there are even calls for a 50 basis point cut.</span><span>Considering interest rates, this valuation is definitely not expensive.</span></strong></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/1dce2-5bb9e4bd-6f6e-49ff-913a-987fb7a0ae33.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>Powell stated that the risks to economic activity from the pandemic are increasing and that timely action will be taken to support the economy.</span></p><p><span>(Source: Federal Reserve website)</span></p><p><span>Look at those giants in the US stock market again; Apple's assets are 22 times higher.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>28 times,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>30x, FB 30x<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>It's a bit more expensive, 83 times, but Wall Street has a different valuation method on Amazon.</span><span>So, generally speaking, the valuations of these giants in the US stock market are not expensive. With them in charge, how far can their valuations fall?</span></p><p><span>That would be killing off profits.</span><span>If the pandemic continues for six months, assuming profits decline by 50%, the second half of the year is normal, but the whole year will decline by 25%. How much should the stock price fall?</span></p><p><span>It's definitely not possible to sell 25%, because the 25% profit lost is not permanent, but temporary, only lost within a year. With such a single impact, a 10% loss is about right, but if you sell with some emotion, it's still around 15%.</span></p><p><span>So, in my personal opinion,<strong>The risk of a US stock market crash is not high. To add to that, we've seen a lot of talk about a US stock market crash these past few days, but the exact amount is uncertain. I'm referring to a relatively low requirement for a US stock market crash: a drop of more than 20% would enter a technical bear market.</strong></span></p><p><span>4</span></p><p><strong><span>What other risks?</span></strong></p><p><span>Of course, there is also the possibility that this short-term profit shock could develop into a full-blown debt crisis.</span><span>This crisis requires a prerequisite: high leverage.</span></p><p><span>Just like a person,<strong>If you don't have a lot of debt, you can use your savings to make up for it even if you lose income in the short term.</strong></span><strong><span>However, if you are heavily indebted, your ability to bear risks will be greatly reduced. Life is like walking a tightrope; you can't afford to make a single mistake.</span><span>For example, is there anyone currently unable to afford their monthly payments?</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>The same applies to an economy whose ability to withstand such short-term shocks is significantly reduced if it is highly indebted.</span></strong></p><p><span>The debt ratio of corporations in the United States is not low now, at around 75% in the third quarter of 2019, exceeding the level in 2008.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/4b24a-b98a64a6-cf1e-4666-addf-4cabecb84157.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>However, 70% of the US economy is contributed by household consumption, and the household debt ratio is also an important reference. Leverage has been reduced for the past decade, and it dropped to 76% in the third quarter of 2019.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/981b3-955b0e84-9601-4344-898d-f64c6bfe69c1.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>In comparison, the debt ratio of Chinese companies is 154%, far higher than that of the United States.</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/cd696-d1f4381a-8089-49b3-ab5b-5a6c91a2fc9b.png?x-oss-process=style/wm\"/></p><p><span>my country's household debt level may not seem high, but its share of GDP is not high. If calculated using disposable income, the household debt level in my country has reached 83%.</span></p><p><span>The same is true for other economies; the past decade has been a decade of global debt ballooning.</span><span>If the pandemic continues for a long time, it will pose a challenge to this leverage.</span></p><p><span>Relatively speaking, American companies are not under as much pressure as Chinese companies, but China has one advantage: the government can act quickly to prevent violent deleveraging (i.e., defaults), thereby preventing contagion and blocking systemic risks.</span><span>The same applies to individuals; for example, they can postpone their monthly payments.</span></p><p><span>I think Japan is under the most pressure.</span><span>The debt level was already high, and they invested a lot of money in the Olympics. They hoped to make a profit this year, but it might not be possible and it would all go down the drain.</span></p><p><span>Of course,<strong>For a country to develop into a debt crisis due to the pandemic, it would require a complete economic shutdown. We haven't seen this possibility yet, and I think the possibility is low.</strong></span></p><p><span>After all, problems exist, but they will eventually pass as long as the person who solves them is there.</span><span>We see that many countries and many people are working in their respective fields to solve it.</span></p><p><strong><span>The impact of the pandemic will be significant, but it will be smaller than the public imagines, especially than the volatile stock market.</span></strong></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/351512\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img3.gelonghui.com/6a05f-f80902a8-8bfe-4148-945d-65634b30bf8b.jpg","relate_stocks":{"SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/351512","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2015382300","content_text":"作者 | 汉阳树数据支持 | 勾股大数据1他们什么都抛了昨天周五，又是从白天到黑夜，全球杀个暗无天日，到我们的晚上10点半，韭菜最后的希望，老大美股开始表演。但美股最开始的表现是让人瑟瑟发抖的，昨晚给我的感觉是，海外的投资者什么都在抛。他们抛科技股，苹果一度跌超6%，特斯拉一度跌近10%。他们抛金融股，摩根大通跌7%，高盛跌4%。他们抛制造业，波音跌6%，卡特彼勒跌3.4%。他们继续抛石油，雪佛龙跌再跌4个点，埃克森美孚跌3.6%。他们抛麦当劳，迪士尼这些消费者服务股。如果说这些股票抛得不算冤枉，他们还抛了可口可乐，抛了宝洁，两家日常消费巨头的股价一度均跌超6%。他们抛的还不止于此，他们开始抛那些曾经看上去受益的标的，比如吉利德，比如口罩股。他们似乎抛得还不够解气，他们甚至抛黄金了，昨晚黄金一度大跌5%，创2011年以来最大单日跌幅。一句话，昨天晚上他们几乎在抛售一切资产，除了国债。在疫情面前，他们变得无比卑微，甚至愿意接受收益率只有1.12%的10年期美债。如果我没记错，这是10年期美债历史上最低的收益率。这看上去就像是世界末日，所有的投资者都缴械投降了。2There is blood in the Street这几年市场都不平静，2016年到现在，除了2017年风平浪静，其它每一年都有过这样的时刻。2016年6月底的英国脱欧，汇丰一度跌了12个点，2016年11月特朗普意外当选，全球市场一度目瞪口呆，2018年茅台三季度出来，白马现跌停潮，还有去年8月6日一系列中美负面消息集中压顶。在这些事件面前，投资者都举手投降，然后，抄底的机会往往也降临了。这种抄底机会让我想起邓普顿来，邓普顿最喜欢在华尔街血流成河时买入，原话是there is blood in the street。但是我没有查到他怎么解释什么是血流成河的市场的。我自己的理解是，血流成河意味着情绪完全接管了股价，情绪宣泄到了极点，由于情绪导致的慌不择路，市场几乎抛售一切资产，不管好的坏的，有影响的没影响的。而昨晚的美股就存在着这一迹象。事实上，我们看之后的美股表现，许多股票收复了失地，三大指数上，纳指翻红，道指与标普500的跌幅也大大收窄。尤其有意思的一点是，昨晚口罩股没能收回来，吉利德也仍然跌了4个点，但是被疫情砸得最凄惨的游轮股却是昨晚的赢家，钻石号的母公司嘉年华大涨5个点，另一家游轮公司挪威游轮（NCLH.N）大涨7个点。这传达的信息是，资金在各自了结自己的头寸获利走人，多头翻空，空头翻多。从资金面上来说，这轮海外疫情导致的恐慌性抛售暂时已经画上句号。至少短期来说，我认为股市会存在不错的反弹机会。当然，这个时候去抄底，我相信对绝大多数人来说，都不是一个容易的决策。这是因为第一，当市场血流成河的时候，地上流着的也有我的血，除非我人品好到爆，躲过了，否则这个时间点上，我的血也在流。这个亏损会让人很难受。第二点是疫情还在继续，只要你敢想象，什么样的末日景象都可以描绘出来。第一点不多谈，因为怎么解决这个难受，是个人性格问题。第二点倒是可以多谈谈。3美股会崩盘吗？第二点如果仔细想下，其实真正的导向是关于美股会不会崩盘的问题。新韭菜面对疫情这种不确定性时，面对这种直线跌法的时候，害怕是肯定的，但我们这些老韭菜是知道的，无论怎么描述它的可怕性，它始终就一次短期扰动，最终一定会过去。但让我们不安的是，它发生在美股十年大牛市的顶上，就在2月19日，美股还创出了历史新高，然后一周时间，就跌去了13、14个点。韭菜与镰刀，一念之间就转换了。如果美股崩盘了，至少A股里与外资干系较大的大蓝筹是难逃一劫的，那些说什么美股崩了，资金会往A股跑，这种扯淡，你听听就好。这两天我看到许多关于美股崩盘的东西，我发现人很容易想入非非，自己给自己脑补许多东西。崩盘，其实就是一个关于杀估值还是杀盈利以及杀多少的问题。美股现在估值是多少？美股三大指数，道指20倍，标普22倍，纳指33倍。最具代表性的标普500动态估值是22倍，抛开异常值，22倍是过去美股估值区间的上限，看上去是比较贵的。但请注意，美国利率水平现在是历史最低水平，昨晚美联储又安慰市场，暗示进一步降息，目前对3月18日的降息预期打到了100%，甚至有降息50个基点的声音。考虑利率水平，这一估值绝对称不上贵。鲍威尔称疫情对经济活动的风险在上升，将适时行动支撑经济（来源：美联储官网）你再看美股里那几个巨头，苹果22倍，谷歌28倍，微软30倍，FB30倍，亚马逊贵点，83倍，但华尔街在亚马逊上的估值方法另有一套。所以，总的来讲，美股这些巨头估值都不贵，有它们坐镇，你说估值还能杀到哪里去？那就是杀盈利了。疫情如果持续半年，假设盈利下滑50%，下半年正常，全年就是下滑25%，股价应该杀多少？肯定杀不到25%,因为这个失去的25%的利润不是永久失去了，而是暂时性的，只这一年失去了，这种一次冲击，杀个10%差不多，带点情绪杀，也是15%左右。所以，我个人看来，美股崩盘风险是不高的，补充一点是，这几天看到许多美股崩盘的说法，但具体跌多少又没个准，我指的美股崩盘要求比较低，跌20%以上，进入技术熊市。4还有什么风险当然，还存在一种可能，这种短期的利润冲击，发展成一种全面的债务危机。这一危机需要一个前提，高杠杆。就像个人一样，你如果负债不高，即使短期失去收入，也能用积蓄度过去。但如果你负债杠杠的，那承受风险的能力就大大降低，生活就如踩钢丝，不能出一丝错。比如当前，有没有人还不起月供？一个经济体也是如此，如果负债比较高，这一经济体承受这种短期冲击风险的能力就大大下降了。美国现在企业的负债率水平是不低的，2019年三季度75%左右，超过了2008年的水平。不过，美国的经济体里70%由家庭消费贡献，家庭负债率水平也是一个重要参考，过去十年都在降杠杆，2019年三季度降到了76%。对比一下，我国企业的负债率水平是154%，远在美国之上。我国的家庭负债水平看上去不高，但是我国的家庭在GDP里分得比例并不高，如果用可支配收入算，我国家庭负债水平也达到了83%。其它经济体也是如此，过去十年是全球债务膨胀的十年。疫情如果持续的时间长，对这一杠杆是一个挑战。相对来说，美国的企业压力没有中国大，但中国有一优势就是，政府可以迅速行动，阻止暴力去杠杆发生（即违约），从而阻止传染效应，阻断系统性风险。个人也是，比如可以暂缓还月供。我觉得，应该压力最大的是日本。本来负债水平就高，还砸了许多钱投奥运，本承望今年一把赚回来，结果可能办不了，全打水漂了。当然，一个国家要因疫情发展到债务危机，那需要经济的全面停摆，目前还没看到这一可能，我觉得可能性也低。毕竟，问题是存在的，但问题总会过去，只要解决问题的人在。我们看到，许多国家许多人在各自领域努力，在解决它。疫情事件影响是会很大，但会比公众想象的要小，尤其会比躁动的股市想象的要小。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TQQQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,".IXIC":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,".DJI":0.87}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2413,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}