To The Moon

-The Federal Reserve hasMade a confession to the marketIn the first trading week of 2023, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting were released. This 14-page minutes of the meeting were the most hawkish since May 2022.Minutes are usually released three weeks after the Fed announces its interest rate decision, which has been misread by the market for three weeks before.​​​Here are the key points we have compiled that can affect the market:1. Reaffirm the determination to fight inflation (fighting inflation is serious)Summary: We are determined to bring inflation back to the target level of 2% even if there is a risk of rising unemployment and slowing growth.2. Not satisfied with the stock market rise (financial situation relaxation), warning that the financial situation

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda spoke at a news conference as turmoil overseas hit Japanese markets.-The news comes from Japan, whose influence has far exceeded that of Japan, and investors are still "standing on the edge of a cliff in jeopardy".Today's Asian trading session saw a sudden sell-off in global stock markets.-China's CSI 300 Index once fell by 2%;-Hong Kong Hang Seng Index once fell by 2%, and Hang Seng Technology Index once fell by 4%;-The Nikkei index closed down 2.5%.A piece of news from Japan shocked the market-The Bank of Japan announced that it would allow the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds to rise to about 0.5% (higher than the upper limit of 0.25% in the previous fluctuation range). As the last developed country to insist on low interest rates, Japan'

The macro news was another relatively calm day, but enough to scare some traders.-The US stock market rose, the S&P 500 index broke five consecutive losses and rose by 0.8%, the Dow Jones index rose by 0.5%, and the Nasdaq index rose by 1.1%;-While stocks rose Thursday, the recent rally in U.S. Treasuries lost momentum. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. debt rose to 3.492% on Thursday from 3.407% on Wednesday. The difference between the yields of 2-10-year government bonds rose by about 1.4 basis points to-82.91 basis points;-The US dollar index fell and risk sentiment returned. In addition, the seasonal trend in December is usually unfavorable to the US dollar;-The price of gold was small last week, and it is possible to test $1,800 again;-Oil prices have fallen for five consecu

Last night, three major events were settled, and the global financial market ushered in a carnival.Let's take a look at the market trend first:-The US stock market rose across the board, the Dow Jones index rose 2.17% (entering a technical bull market), the S&P 500 index rose 3.02%, and the Nasdaq index rose 4.41% (most of the gains occurred at the end of global trading hours, Beijing time this morning);-Oil, copper and gold prices rose simultaneously;-The US dollar resumed its decline;-The yield of US bonds fell across the board, and the yield of 10-year government bonds fell by 6 basis points to 3.6847%. The difference between the yields of 2-year and 10-year government bonds rose by about 4.4 basis points to-69. 35 basis points.What can you roughly perceive from the market trend?1.

The most important event this week, the minutes of the November meeting of the Federal Reserve, were released.Look at the market impact first:-The US dollar and US bond yields fell hand in hand;-Gold, US stock market rallied.Many media take it for granted that it is influenced by "the doves' voice in the minutes is strong".Let's talk about our conclusion:There is no major accident-this is a meeting minute that "there is no surprising hawkish argument" but is misread (there are no more hawkish voices).Looking at the details, there are three key sentences:1. Most officials believe that it is expected to slow down the pace of interest rate increase "soon" (this is a news that has been hyped several times);Many analysts believe that this sentence has affected the market, which is really mislea

There was a small reversal in the global market on Thursday:-The US stock market fell slightly, with the Dow down 0.02%, the S&P 500 index down 0.31% and the Nasdaq down 0.35%-Gold price fell by nearly 1%-Oil prices fell by 3%, and US crude oil futures fell below the 50-day moving average, triggering fund liquidation-The US dollar index rebounded slightlyAlthough the market volatility is not large, the familiar pattern of "the dollar rises, everything falls" has appeared again. The reasons behind last night's market reversal need to be paid enough attention-the spoiler of the Federal Reserve appeared-and a sentence from Fed officials brought people back to reality.St Louis Fed Chairman Bullard said that raising interest rates to at least 5%-5.25% would be necessary to curb inflation at

-It has been said for the past few months that "inflation has peaked", but it is not reflected in the data. Last night was the first time that it was really reflected in the data.After waiting for a year, I finally got good news.Inflation eased in the United States in October, and both CPI and core CPI rose lower than expected.-CPI rose by 7.7% year-on-year in October, down from 8.2% in September, and the year-on-year inflation rate of 9.1% in June was the highest in 40 years.-The core CPI excluding volatile energy and food rose by 6.3% year-on-year in October, which was lower than the 6.6% in September, and the growth rate in September was the highest since August 1982. Fed officials pay close attention to core CPI as a reflection of general price pressure and a forecast of future inflati

-Global investors are still stumbling forward, and bearish sentiment pervades the market.Bad news came one after another, causing a new round of selling in the global market:1) The global inflation data is higher, and the inflation data released by Canada and the United Kingdom are stronger than expected (the inflation rate in the United Kingdom has returned to double digits, reaching 10.1%);2) Fed officials hawkish speech, Minneapolis Fed Chairman Kashkari said that core inflation has not peaked (adding fuel to the fire); St. Louis Fed Chairman Brad said that the Fed should not respond to the stock market decline;3) The number of new housing starts in the United States has not yet bottomed out, and it has dropped by 20.3% compared with the recent peak hit in April;4) Fed Beige Book shows

Rumor has become the most accurate prediction.U.S. September CPI and core CPI both exceeded expectations, providing reasons for further sharp interest rate hikes.-CPI rose from 8.3% to 8.2% in September, which was higher than the 8.1% expected by economists.-In September, the increase of core CPI accelerated from 6.3% in August to 6.6%, which was higher than the expectation of 6.5% and the highest level since 1982.Problems reflected by itemized data:-Housing inflation was 6.59%, higher than last month's 6.24% and a record high.-Rent inflation was 7.21%, higher than last month's 6.74% and a record high.Given the time lag between real-time changes in rents and house prices and their reflection in the data, house prices in the inflation report will remain high for quite some time.The CPI data

When the central bank hits the brakes, someone bursts out of the windshield.On Tuesday, the global market volatility was not large. On the surface, it was a "dollar rising, everything else falling" model, 1. The US dollar index has risen for five consecutive trading days, but the increase is gradually narrowing. This usually happens, which does not necessarily mean changing the market, but it must be about to meet a bigger market;2. The US dollar/Japanese yen is close to the 24-year peak, not far from the point where the Bank of Japan intervened in the foreign exchange market last time (145.90);3. The US stock market began to rise and fall, the Dow Jones index rose, and the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq index both fell;4. The international oil price fell, but the recession began to be price