To The Moon

Earlier this Tuesday, a U.S. financial journalist asked President Donald Trump a question that has broadly worried Wall Street: “Are you concerned about the recent decline in the U.S. dollar?” Trump’s response surprised the market: he said no, he thought it was great, and that the dollar should be allowed to find its own level because that is “fair”—adding that if you look at China and Japan, they always want their currencies to depreciate. In market reporting, bullion rose as much as 1.3% on Wednesday after jumping 3.4% the day before (its biggest one-day gain since April), and Trump said he was not concerned about a weaker dollar even as the world’s premier reserve currency slid to its weakest level in nearly four years. This statement clearly reads as tacit approval—or even welcome—for

The U.S. dollar has been unusually weak recently, and multiple signs suggest this choppy weakness may persist for a while longer. The real turning point is likely to fall somewhere between March and April this year. First, China’s official USD/CNY fixing was set around 6.9 today—previously it had been in the 7-handle. This is the strongest official RMB fixing since 2023, and with the official rate now back below 7, it indicates the dollar has indeed remained weak lately. The central bank apparently does not see a problem with setting the fixing this strong。 $USD/CNH(USDCNH.FOREX)$ Second, Bloomberg reported that India again sold a large amount of U.S. Treasuries over the most recent month. India’s U.S. Treasury holdings have now fallen to

Last week’s macro framework is still working this week, and Trump has kicked off yet another farce: he floated the idea of purchasing Greenland from Europe and also imposed tariffs on eight European countries that opposed him.​ The situation has become even more turbulent.Why Trump Threatened 11 Countries in Just Two Weeks: The Dollar on the Edge Tells the StoryThis is almost certainly not the last step in Trump’s external provocation, but it is very likely an important move within his broader foreign strategy.​Today, let’s take a little time to briefly discuss the logic behind the Greenland dispute.First, one point must be clarified: why is Trump deliberately stirring trouble in his own “backyard”?​ One day it’s Venezu

At this point, it finally feels possible to roughly tell what Trump is trying to do.He first took the extraordinary step of seizing Venezuela’s president, threw Venezuela into turmoil, and wrecked its economy. He then threatened to launch military strikes against Iran, and just the day before yesterday issued a security alert telling all U.S. citizens in Iran to leave immediately, building momentum as if a real military operation were about to begin. A simple tally of the countries Trump has threatened or actually acted against since the start of January 2026 is startling: in just half a month, the U.S. president has made threatening statements or taken coercive actions targeting 11 countries/regions.So what is he trying to do? The answer lies in the U.S. Dollar Index standing at the edge

As expected from last week’s outlook, after silver posted its first “top-and-drop” move, silver futures have staged another sharp rebound exactly one week later. As discussed previously, silver rarely tops out with a clean inverted-V reversal based on its historical price behavior; more commonly, it forms a second rebound on the weekly chart and only then peaks again and rolls over, and that second rebound often appears about one week after the first peak-and-selloff.Review: Can the trading distribution of silver futures options “leak” the future path for silver?$白银主连 2603(SImain)$ $微白银主连 2603(SILmain)$

Replying to @盲人摸大象:[握手]//@盲人摸大象:[强]

Silver experienced a significant drop last night. The sell-off erupted just after the CME raised margin requirements for silver futures. This move by the world's largest exchange by trading volume seems like an official endorsement of the view that "silver is currently overbought." Following the sudden liquidity tightening, silver futures fell over 10 points, causing a minor pullback in the US stock market's Christmas rally. Many are concerned: Is the uptrend in silver over? How likely is a continued sharp decline? Could it end the US stock market's Christmas rally as well?In fact, we warned about a potential silver drop in our previous analysis. I specifically highlighted the importance of the 5-day moving average for the main continuous silver futures contract. Theoretically, a short squ

After the policy outcomes from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan were released, the market’s largest near-term risk window has largely passed.​Based on how price action has responded so far, the Santa rally has very likely begun; historically, it typically runs from late December into early January, and U.S. equities have a high probability of grinding higher with choppy gains during this period.​What’s more, while mega-cap tech looks expensive, the overall valuation of the equal-weight S&P 500 is not particularly stretched, so over the coming week it may be worth considering a strategy of selling weekly put options on Nasdaq futures with strikes below the 20-week moving average.​At the same time, it also makes sense to prepare in advance for a potential explosive move in commo

Be cautious: this week, both U.S. equities and the two most crowded assets—gold and silver—are sitting in a fragile equilibrium of “high prices + low volatility + high leverage.” On top of that, the headline calendar includes Quadruple witching day, a Bank of Japan rate hike, and the return of the previously paused U.S. nonfarm payrolls release—factors that make a meaningful volatility expansion highly likely. In such an environment, any one-way bet can easily be whipsawed as take-profit and stop-loss orders get triggered repeatedly.​In these conditions—especially before the Bank of Japan announces its policy decision—the priority should shift away from trying to be “right” on a single directional call. The focus should be on protecting earlier gains and controlling drawdowns, because the

Many people may not yet have noticed that the current market is showing a very intriguing and seemingly contradictory pattern. On one hand, bond market pricing suggests that investors do not believe the Federal Reserve, even after its leadership change, can smoothly and quickly transition into a clearly dovish policy environment. On the other hand, silver prices have hit fresh highs even without any visible squeeze caused by tightness in the physical inventory. The gold–silver ratio has undergone a technical collapse, which implies that market bets on future inflation remain elevated, and silver is very likely front-running a new upcycle in broader commodities.​国内现货白银市场的基差持续走弱，但美白银仍然持续逼空上涨In Chinese physical silver market, the basis has continued to weaken, yet U.S. silver prices are still