Profile - To The Moon

鉴势

一个努力优秀的人。

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- 鉴势鉴势
  ·2025-07-22
  56.9
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- 鉴势鉴势
  ·2024-05-23
  [流泪] [流泪] [流泪] [流泪]
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- 鉴势鉴势
  ·2023-03-05
  [财迷]
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- 鉴势鉴势
  ·2021-03-12
  ??
  With the global stock market taking a sudden turn, how can one make money in the A-share market?
  真正的问题，不是A股能不能赚钱，而是你能不能在A股赚钱。最近，全球股市突然转了向。大牛股批量式走熊，股价直线下降甚至腰斩。曾被捧上热搜的明星基金经理纷纷跌落神坛，昨天还是“全世界最好的坤坤”，今天就变
  With the global stock market taking a sudden turn, how can one make money in the A-share market?
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- 鉴势鉴势
  ·2020-12-03
  ᥬ?᭄
  Snowflake's first financial report since its IPO showed a widening year-on-year loss, with the stock price plummeting by more than 8% at one point in after-hours trading.
  12月2日，美国云数据仓库公司Snowflake今日公布了该公司的2021财年第三季度财报，这也是该公司自9月IPO（首次公开招股）上市以来公布的首份财报。报告显示，Snowflake第三季度总营收为
  Snowflake's first financial report since its IPO showed a widening year-on-year loss, with the stock price plummeting by more than 8% at one point in after-hours trading.
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09:51","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"With the global stock market taking a sudden turn, how can one make money in the A-share market?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112483646","media":"华商韬略","summary":"真正的问题，不是A股能不能赚钱，而是你能不能在A股赚钱。最近，全球股市突然转了向。大牛股批量式走熊，股价直线下降甚至腰斩。曾被捧上热搜的明星基金经理纷纷跌落神坛，昨天还是“全世界最好的坤坤”，今天就变","content":"<p>The real question is not whether you can make money in the A-share market, but whether you can make money in the A-share market. Recently, global stock markets have suddenly taken a turn.</p><p>A large number of top-performing stocks experienced a bear market, with their share prices plummeting or even halving. Star fund managers who were once trending on social media have fallen from their pedestals. Yesterday they were \"the best Kun Kun in the world,\" and today they have become \"vegetable Kun.\"</p><p>The mindset and investment logic of some newcomers to the market have changed from firmly believing last year that \"A-shares have entered the era of value investing\" to now falling into deep doubt.</p><p>The A-share market has been around for more than 30 years since the establishment of the Shanghai Stock Exchange in December 1990. Over the past 30 years, the market has grown larger and larger, and the number of investors has increased, but this shift and turmoil from overwhelming confidence to inner collapse has always followed. The question of whether the A-share market can actually make money has been repeatedly asked.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e037c6355e2a495b55ed53145cff7b5f\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Seven losses, two break even, and one profit. This means that 70% of stock investors lose money, 20% break even, and only 10% are likely to make a profit.</p><p>The basic impression most people have about investing in the stock market is that the probability of making money is too low.</p><p>For the past decade or so, the stock market has often been compared to the real estate market, and the result of the comparison has often been that the stock market has been instantly reduced to rubble.</p><p>The reality is similar. Over the past 20 years, buying and speculating on real estate has brought huge wealth appreciation to the vast majority of families, while stock speculation has brought more unspeakable sad memories.</p><p>Is the A-share market really that bad? That's not the case.</p><p>Taking the Shanghai Composite Index as an example<b>Since 1990, the increase has exceeded 33 times, with an annualized increase of over 13%. In comparison, the annualized increase in housing prices nationwide during the same period was less than 6%.</b>In other words, the long-term returns of A-shares have significantly outperformed those of real estate.</p><p><b>Not only real estate, but compared to other major investment methods,</b>A-shares also have the highest long-term returns. For example, the 10-year Treasury Bond represents an annualized yield of less than 4% for bonds, while the annualized gain for commodities, measured by the CRB index, is less than 3%.</p><p>Compared to the gains in the Shanghai Composite Index, the actual gains in A-shares are underestimated.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06837\">Haitong Securities</a>Two methods have been used to calculate A-share returns from the opening of the Shanghai Stock Exchange to 2017, which are closer to the actual situation. The calculation results of both methods far exceed the annualized increase of 14%.</p><p>One method is,<b>Buying an equal amount of A-shares at the beginning of each year yields an investment return of 576 times, with an annualized increase of 28.0% over 27 years.</b>Alternatively,<b>Buying an equal amount of all A-shares at the beginning of each year yields an investment return of 256 times, with an annualized increase of 24.0%.</b></p><p>Investing in A-shares using this \"foolish\" method can yield an annualized return that even exceeds that of Buffett. Over the past 30 years, Warren Buffett's annualized return has been just over 20%.</p><p>Why can't ordinary shareholders feel the huge potential for profit hidden in the A-share market?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2713cd5a4e7e35fb867ab95f8547651b\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Why do most investors still lose money, or even always lose money?</p><p>The answer is brutal and true: it's not whether the stock market can make money, but whether you can make money.</p><p>The annualized return of A-shares is the highest among all major investment categories, but its volatility is also much higher than that of other investment categories. Over the past 30 years, the Shanghai Composite Index's largest annual increase was 166% in 1992, and its largest decline was 65% in 2008. In most years, the return level of A-shares has deviated far from the annualized return.</p><p><b>In the midst of huge fluctuations, making the wrong move can turn a profitable investment into a huge loss, especially since many investors chase highs and sell lows, making the wrong move repeatedly.</b></p><p>The huge volatility of A-shares stems from, on the one hand, the Chinese economy and the structure of listed companies.</p><p>For a long time, China's economic growth was mainly driven by investment, which is reflected in the stock market, where the vast majority of listed companies' profits came from cyclical industries such as banking, real estate, and resources.<b>The profits of these companies fluctuate significantly with the economic cycle, resulting in high volatility in the A-share market.</b></p><p>On the other hand, there is the investor structure of A-shares.</p><p>Based on free float market capitalization, in the first quarter of 2020, institutional investment accounted for 30.3% of A-shares (public funds 10.8%, foreign capital 8%, insurance funds 7.1%, and private equity 4.4%), natural persons and legal persons accounted for 25.1%, and retail investors accounted for 38.3% of the market value of shares held.</p><p>Retail investors remain the largest holding group in the market.<b>Irrational trading behavior by retail investors is most likely to cause the market to rise too much when it is rising and fall too much when it is falling, thereby exacerbating the volatility of A-shares beyond the level of profitability.</b></p><p>Looking at the recent bull-bear shift, during the bull market from June 2013 to June 2015, the profit growth rate of listed companies was only about 10%, but the Shanghai Composite Index rose from 1849 points to 5178 points, and the PE ratio rose from 8 to 21, an increase of 2.5 times. During the bear market from June 2015 to January 2019, the Shanghai Composite Index fell from 5178 points to 2440 points, with the PE ratio dropping from 21 to 11, but the performance of most companies did not decline significantly.</p><p><b>These fluctuations are almost entirely driven by emotions and largely caused by retail investors, ultimately deeply harming them.</b></p><p>On the one hand, most retail investors lack valuation concepts and cyclical thinking, and instead follow the crowd based on the market's profit-making effect. They flocked in when the bull market was at its craziest and valuation bubbles reached historical highs, and cut their losses and exited when the bear market was at its lowest and valuations returned to historical lows. As mentioned earlier, one or more waves of buying high and selling low can lead to huge losses, or even lose everything.</p><p>On the other hand, the immense excitement brought about by huge fluctuations and the convenience of stock market trading operations have plunged most retail investors into the quagmire of pursuing getting rich quick and engaging in frequent short-term trading. People's long-term judgments about things inevitably outweigh their short-term judgments. Your prediction of a company's performance in the next few years is more likely to be accurate than your prediction of its stock price in the next few days.</p><p><b>They believe in the company's long-term value, but buy and sell its short-term value. This leads even many smart investors to fall into the curse of \"why am I so smart but always lose money\" due to frequent short-term mistakes.</b></p><p><b>The same logic applies to the real estate market. It is precisely because the market is relatively volatile, the transaction procedures are very complex, and the transaction costs are high that ordinary people...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">ordinary people</a>They can also fully enjoy its value-added benefits.</b></p><p>Emotional fluctuations frequently cause \"Mr. Market\" to malfunction, and stock prices often deviate significantly from reasonable values. This is fatal damage to those who buy high and sell low, but it also presents a golden opportunity for those who buy low and sell high. For example, the valuation of the Shanghai Composite Index once hit a historical low in early 2014, with a PE (TTM) of only about 8 times. At that time, Moutai's PE (TTM) was even less than 9 times, less than 20% of its current level.</p><p>Looking back now, the times when people panicked and cursed were often good times to invest. It is precisely this huge fluctuation that deviates from the company's value that has created many prominent individual investors who have become rich by selling high and buying low in the short term. Some speculative investors have started with tens of thousands of yuan and built their fortunes into hundreds of millions of yuan, and their wealth accumulation speed far exceeds that of investment gurus from mature markets such as Warren Buffett.</p><p>The timing opportunities brought about by huge volatility have also created return myths, such as Wang Yawei, the former famous fund manager of China Asset Management. Since Wang Yawei took over the management of the Huaxia Selected Market at the end of 2005, its net asset value has increased 11 times in just over six years.</p><p>There is another type of investor who ignores market fluctuations, grows alongside outstanding companies through steadfast long-term stock holdings, and ultimately earns billions in returns, such as Liu Yuansheng of Vanke.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002415\">Hikvision</a>Gong Hongjia,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600276\">Hengrui Medicine</a>Cen Junda.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b2fae31f44ed28af1735000957fd88a\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For a long time, the A-share market was considered to run counter to the trend of the Chinese economy and could not serve as a barometer of economic development.</p><p>A common piece of evidence is that China's GDP has more than tripled since 2007, but the Shanghai Composite Index is still far from reaching 6,124 points in October 2007.</p><p>This viewpoint seems reasonable, but it is actually plausible and flawed. The most fundamental mistake lies in the choice of timing.</p><p>In 2007, the Shanghai Composite Index reached 6124 points, which was the most frenzied time of the bull market. The PE (TTM) ratio reached more than 60 times, while now it is only around 16 times. It is clearly unreasonable to compare a market with a severe bubble with a relatively normal market today.</p><p>If we disregard the factor of valuation differences and take 2005, when valuations were similar, as the starting point for comparison, the results are more valuable for reference.</p><p>From 2005 to 2019, my country's nominal GDP grew at an annualized rate of 12.8%, while the Wind All A Index grew at an annualized rate of 14%, the CSI 300 Index at 9.8%, and the CSI 800 Index at 10.2%. The rise in A-shares was basically consistent with the economic fundamentals.</p><p>From the changes in the leading companies by market capitalization in the A-share market, we can also see the changes in the fundamentals of the Chinese economy.</p><p>Before 2000, the leading companies in the A-share market capitalization were long dominated by television manufacturers.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600839\">Sichuan Changhong</a>Occupy. Correspondingly, at that time, it was still an era of shortage economy, and traditional manufacturing industries, represented by home appliances, were in a golden age of rapid growth in performance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb78c7c6bdc785e6d0f8cac1f2beb86c\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>▲ Top 10 A Shares by Total Market Capitalization as at 31 December 1998</p><p>Image source:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300033\">Tonghuashun</a>iFinD</p><p>In 2010, the top A-share market capitalization companies were:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601857\">PetroChina</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01398\">Industrial and Commercial Bank</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01088\">China Shenhua</a>Financial and resource companies—the corresponding economic background is that China is experiencing rapid industrialization and urbanization, with cyclical investment industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, oil and coal, and real estate becoming the \"four pillars\" driving economic growth. The financing models of these industries, which are extremely reliant on credit, have made the scale and importance of banks unprecedentedly strong.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ce4f08ad5758d655496d7b5c1fde131\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"555\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>▲ Top 10 A-shares by total market capitalization as of December 31, 2010</p><p>Image source:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300033\">Tonghuashun</a>iFinD</p><p>As of February 18th, prior to the Japanese round of declines, among the top ten A-share companies by market capitalization, besides banks and insurance companies, the newest entrants were representatives of high-end liquor companies.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">Kweichow Moutai</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">Wuliangye</a>And leaders in the new energy vehicle industry chain<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c4ff8237ff636919572f2c48db5d5bd\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>▲ Top 10 A-shares by total market capitalization as of February 18, 2021</p><p>Image source: iFinD</p><p>As the former leader of the A-share market<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600839\">Sichuan Changhong</a>The current market capitalization is less than half of what it was 20 years ago.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601857\">PetroChina</a>Compared to its historical peak, its market capitalization has dropped by as much as 90%.</p><p>This remains an objective reflection of economic trends.</p><p>First, in the era of surplus economy, traditional manufacturing is caught in a fierce red ocean of homogeneous competition, with extremely meager profits. Channels and traffic have become the most important resources, which has led to the rapid rise of Internet giants. Secondly, under the era of consumption-driven economic growth and continuous consumption upgrading, the stage of wild growth of heavy chemical industry has passed. Consumers are paying more and more attention to the emotional experience and personalization of products, which has given rise to more and more high-end consumer goods companies with distinctive characteristics, reaching the peak of performance and market value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f46d00247aa7d55ac04998858e7f2c\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Another point that has been criticized in the A-share market is the rampant speculation and hype in the market, and the market movements are detached from the reality of value. Value investing seems to have failed to adapt to the A-share market.</p><p>This seems to be true at a certain point in time. Many junk stocks without performance support often see their stock prices soar, while good companies with stable and excellent performance remain lukewarm. However, looking at the long term, the A-share market is actually a very rational and effective market. The long-term trend of listed companies' stock prices is highly correlated with their performance. As the saying goes, short-term trends depend on quality, while long-term trends depend on quality.</p><p>Looking back now, companies that have weathered the test of time, weathered bull and bear cycles, and ultimately become stocks that have grown over a hundredfold are mostly excellent companies that are well-known to investors, including...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">Kweichow Moutai</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">Wuliangye</a>Vanke<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000651\">Gree Electric</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600276\">Hengrui Medicine</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000538\">Yunnan Baiyao</a>etc.</p><p>Kweichow Moutai went public in 2001, and its net profit increased from 328 million yuan that year to 41.2 billion yuan in 2019.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000651\">Gree Electric</a>It went public in 1996, and its net profit increased from 186 million yuan that year to 24.6 billion yuan in 2019. Both well-known companies saw their profits increase by more than 100 times, forming a solid foundation for a long-term surge in stock prices.</p><p>Conversely, popular thematic stocks that once enjoyed great success in the market were driven up to inflated market capitalizations and ultimately became a mess. Take LeEco and Baofeng Technology, which were delisted last year, as examples. They were both heavily speculated on by the market, with their market values reaching 170 billion and 40 billion yuan respectively at their peak. However, when they were ultimately delisted, only 700 million and 100 million yuan remained.</p><p>In the long run, valuation fluctuations caused by speculation have a negligible impact on the market value of listed companies, and performance is always the most important factor affecting market value. Companies that can continuously create value for customers and shareholders in the long term will eventually be recognized by investors, and investors who recognize and stick to such companies will always earn profits that exceed expectations.</p><p>Time is the sole criterion for judging a company's value.<b>Value and rationality have always existed, but they are deeply buried in the ups and downs, and are mastered and practiced in the hands of a few people.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5848b959b41914ede5553657d3bf2808\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Short bull markets and long bear markets are another major source of frustration for investors regarding the current A-share market.</p><p>Since 2000, the average duration of a bull market in the A-share market has been only 20 months, while the average duration of a bear market has been as high as 37 months. The signs of short bull markets and long bear markets are exceptionally prominent and are considered an inescapable fate for the A-share market.</p><p>In contrast, the US stock market has experienced five bull and bear market cycles since 1900, with each bull market lasting an average of 12 years and a bear market lasting only 2 years. Its long bull market and short bear market characteristics are in stark contrast to those of the A-share market.</p><p>This has reinforced people's impression that making money in the A-share market is difficult.</p><p>This phenomenon is due to the different behaviors of both sides during a one-sided bull market. During the three bull market cycles over the past 20 years, the Shanghai Composite Index has achieved compound annualized gains of 112%, 142%, and 70%, respectively, with an average annualized gain of 108%. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has only seen an annualized increase of about 20% during a bull market. A short-term surge in a bull market will inevitably lead to abnormally high valuations. Ultimately, the valuation bubble can only be digested through a long decline. A moderate bull market increase, coupled with the digestion and support of earnings, can naturally continue steadily for a long time.</p><p>A closer look at the differences between the bull and bear cycles of A-shares and US stocks reveals that the root cause lies in the investor structure and the profit structure of listed companies.</p><p>US stock investors are mainly institutional investors, and their profits are mainly derived from weak cyclical sectors such as consumer goods and technology. This market environment makes US stock valuations relatively stable and profits grow steadily, thus providing the foundation for a long-term bull market. However, A-share investors are mainly retail investors, and their profits mainly come from cyclical industries. Valuations and profits naturally lack stability, making it difficult for A-shares to achieve a long-term bull market.</p><p>However, the market environment for A-shares is now converging with that of mature markets such as the US stock market.</p><p>The proportion of investment institutions is increasing. Since 2015, institutional investors' share of free-float market capitalization has grown by more than 2% annually and is showing signs of acceleration.</p><p>In terms of profit structure, with the significant increase in the number of IPOs by consumer and technology companies in recent years, the market capitalization and profit share of weak cyclical industries in the A-share market are also increasing.</p><p>These changes are laying the foundation for a long bull market in A-shares. Even if the market suddenly turns from hot to cold this year, A-shares will still truly usher in a long-term slow bull market, and the fate of short bulls and long bears will eventually be broken.</p><p>However, this does not mean that ordinary investors will definitely make money.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e81473a210179ceea50879ef270d3903\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Cognitive ability is very important for success in life and for profitable investments.</p><p>In the eyes of some people, the stock market is chaotic, with rises and falls occurring completely randomly without any underlying patterns, and stock trading is all about luck. Others believe that the stock market is linear; it seems to keep going up when it goes up and keep going down when it goes down, and there will never be a cycle.</p><p>The value of cognition lies in finding relatively certain patterns in chaos, in understanding the cyclical changes in ups and downs, thereby improving the ability to seize opportunities and avoid risks, and thus increasing the probability of success and profit.</p><p>However, having cognitive abilities is far from enough; what is more important is the unity of knowledge and action. If your actions and practices always go against your rational understanding, even if your understanding is accurate, you may not actually be able to make money in the stock market.</p><p>The most important thing is to overcome the flaws of one's own character and the common weaknesses of human nature. Only by controlling emotions and desires, restraining fantasies of getting rich quick, adhering to long-termism, believing in the power of common sense and time, and believing in what you believe in, can you turn your beliefs into reality.</p><p>Indispensable, of course, is the blessing of national destiny.</p><p>Buffett said, \"My life has largely benefited from the 'womb dividend.' Being fortunate to be born as a white man in the United States, a country with a strong and thriving economy, is the main reason for my investment success.\"</p><p>Chinese stock market investors are actually lucky. Over the past few decades, the Chinese economy has started to catch up from near poverty, providing tremendous opportunities for the capital market. Over the next 30 years, China's greater development amidst unprecedented changes in a century will provide even more and greater opportunities.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>With the global stock market taking a sudden turn, how can one make money in the A-share market?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWith the global stock market taking a sudden turn, how can one make money in the A-share market?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/27\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/08f34cc62ee54134a6a68fe6538c26f8);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华商韬略 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-12 09:51</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The real question is not whether you can make money in the A-share market, but whether you can make money in the A-share market. Recently, global stock markets have suddenly taken a turn.</p><p>A large number of top-performing stocks experienced a bear market, with their share prices plummeting or even halving. Star fund managers who were once trending on social media have fallen from their pedestals. Yesterday they were \"the best Kun Kun in the world,\" and today they have become \"vegetable Kun.\"</p><p>The mindset and investment logic of some newcomers to the market have changed from firmly believing last year that \"A-shares have entered the era of value investing\" to now falling into deep doubt.</p><p>The A-share market has been around for more than 30 years since the establishment of the Shanghai Stock Exchange in December 1990. Over the past 30 years, the market has grown larger and larger, and the number of investors has increased, but this shift and turmoil from overwhelming confidence to inner collapse has always followed. The question of whether the A-share market can actually make money has been repeatedly asked.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e037c6355e2a495b55ed53145cff7b5f\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Seven losses, two break even, and one profit. This means that 70% of stock investors lose money, 20% break even, and only 10% are likely to make a profit.</p><p>The basic impression most people have about investing in the stock market is that the probability of making money is too low.</p><p>For the past decade or so, the stock market has often been compared to the real estate market, and the result of the comparison has often been that the stock market has been instantly reduced to rubble.</p><p>The reality is similar. Over the past 20 years, buying and speculating on real estate has brought huge wealth appreciation to the vast majority of families, while stock speculation has brought more unspeakable sad memories.</p><p>Is the A-share market really that bad? That's not the case.</p><p>Taking the Shanghai Composite Index as an example<b>Since 1990, the increase has exceeded 33 times, with an annualized increase of over 13%. In comparison, the annualized increase in housing prices nationwide during the same period was less than 6%.</b>In other words, the long-term returns of A-shares have significantly outperformed those of real estate.</p><p><b>Not only real estate, but compared to other major investment methods,</b>A-shares also have the highest long-term returns. For example, the 10-year Treasury Bond represents an annualized yield of less than 4% for bonds, while the annualized gain for commodities, measured by the CRB index, is less than 3%.</p><p>Compared to the gains in the Shanghai Composite Index, the actual gains in A-shares are underestimated.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06837\">Haitong Securities</a>Two methods have been used to calculate A-share returns from the opening of the Shanghai Stock Exchange to 2017, which are closer to the actual situation. The calculation results of both methods far exceed the annualized increase of 14%.</p><p>One method is,<b>Buying an equal amount of A-shares at the beginning of each year yields an investment return of 576 times, with an annualized increase of 28.0% over 27 years.</b>Alternatively,<b>Buying an equal amount of all A-shares at the beginning of each year yields an investment return of 256 times, with an annualized increase of 24.0%.</b></p><p>Investing in A-shares using this \"foolish\" method can yield an annualized return that even exceeds that of Buffett. Over the past 30 years, Warren Buffett's annualized return has been just over 20%.</p><p>Why can't ordinary shareholders feel the huge potential for profit hidden in the A-share market?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2713cd5a4e7e35fb867ab95f8547651b\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Why do most investors still lose money, or even always lose money?</p><p>The answer is brutal and true: it's not whether the stock market can make money, but whether you can make money.</p><p>The annualized return of A-shares is the highest among all major investment categories, but its volatility is also much higher than that of other investment categories. Over the past 30 years, the Shanghai Composite Index's largest annual increase was 166% in 1992, and its largest decline was 65% in 2008. In most years, the return level of A-shares has deviated far from the annualized return.</p><p><b>In the midst of huge fluctuations, making the wrong move can turn a profitable investment into a huge loss, especially since many investors chase highs and sell lows, making the wrong move repeatedly.</b></p><p>The huge volatility of A-shares stems from, on the one hand, the Chinese economy and the structure of listed companies.</p><p>For a long time, China's economic growth was mainly driven by investment, which is reflected in the stock market, where the vast majority of listed companies' profits came from cyclical industries such as banking, real estate, and resources.<b>The profits of these companies fluctuate significantly with the economic cycle, resulting in high volatility in the A-share market.</b></p><p>On the other hand, there is the investor structure of A-shares.</p><p>Based on free float market capitalization, in the first quarter of 2020, institutional investment accounted for 30.3% of A-shares (public funds 10.8%, foreign capital 8%, insurance funds 7.1%, and private equity 4.4%), natural persons and legal persons accounted for 25.1%, and retail investors accounted for 38.3% of the market value of shares held.</p><p>Retail investors remain the largest holding group in the market.<b>Irrational trading behavior by retail investors is most likely to cause the market to rise too much when it is rising and fall too much when it is falling, thereby exacerbating the volatility of A-shares beyond the level of profitability.</b></p><p>Looking at the recent bull-bear shift, during the bull market from June 2013 to June 2015, the profit growth rate of listed companies was only about 10%, but the Shanghai Composite Index rose from 1849 points to 5178 points, and the PE ratio rose from 8 to 21, an increase of 2.5 times. During the bear market from June 2015 to January 2019, the Shanghai Composite Index fell from 5178 points to 2440 points, with the PE ratio dropping from 21 to 11, but the performance of most companies did not decline significantly.</p><p><b>These fluctuations are almost entirely driven by emotions and largely caused by retail investors, ultimately deeply harming them.</b></p><p>On the one hand, most retail investors lack valuation concepts and cyclical thinking, and instead follow the crowd based on the market's profit-making effect. They flocked in when the bull market was at its craziest and valuation bubbles reached historical highs, and cut their losses and exited when the bear market was at its lowest and valuations returned to historical lows. As mentioned earlier, one or more waves of buying high and selling low can lead to huge losses, or even lose everything.</p><p>On the other hand, the immense excitement brought about by huge fluctuations and the convenience of stock market trading operations have plunged most retail investors into the quagmire of pursuing getting rich quick and engaging in frequent short-term trading. People's long-term judgments about things inevitably outweigh their short-term judgments. Your prediction of a company's performance in the next few years is more likely to be accurate than your prediction of its stock price in the next few days.</p><p><b>They believe in the company's long-term value, but buy and sell its short-term value. This leads even many smart investors to fall into the curse of \"why am I so smart but always lose money\" due to frequent short-term mistakes.</b></p><p><b>The same logic applies to the real estate market. It is precisely because the market is relatively volatile, the transaction procedures are very complex, and the transaction costs are high that ordinary people...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">ordinary people</a>They can also fully enjoy its value-added benefits.</b></p><p>Emotional fluctuations frequently cause \"Mr. Market\" to malfunction, and stock prices often deviate significantly from reasonable values. This is fatal damage to those who buy high and sell low, but it also presents a golden opportunity for those who buy low and sell high. For example, the valuation of the Shanghai Composite Index once hit a historical low in early 2014, with a PE (TTM) of only about 8 times. At that time, Moutai's PE (TTM) was even less than 9 times, less than 20% of its current level.</p><p>Looking back now, the times when people panicked and cursed were often good times to invest. It is precisely this huge fluctuation that deviates from the company's value that has created many prominent individual investors who have become rich by selling high and buying low in the short term. Some speculative investors have started with tens of thousands of yuan and built their fortunes into hundreds of millions of yuan, and their wealth accumulation speed far exceeds that of investment gurus from mature markets such as Warren Buffett.</p><p>The timing opportunities brought about by huge volatility have also created return myths, such as Wang Yawei, the former famous fund manager of China Asset Management. Since Wang Yawei took over the management of the Huaxia Selected Market at the end of 2005, its net asset value has increased 11 times in just over six years.</p><p>There is another type of investor who ignores market fluctuations, grows alongside outstanding companies through steadfast long-term stock holdings, and ultimately earns billions in returns, such as Liu Yuansheng of Vanke.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002415\">Hikvision</a>Gong Hongjia,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600276\">Hengrui Medicine</a>Cen Junda.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b2fae31f44ed28af1735000957fd88a\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For a long time, the A-share market was considered to run counter to the trend of the Chinese economy and could not serve as a barometer of economic development.</p><p>A common piece of evidence is that China's GDP has more than tripled since 2007, but the Shanghai Composite Index is still far from reaching 6,124 points in October 2007.</p><p>This viewpoint seems reasonable, but it is actually plausible and flawed. The most fundamental mistake lies in the choice of timing.</p><p>In 2007, the Shanghai Composite Index reached 6124 points, which was the most frenzied time of the bull market. The PE (TTM) ratio reached more than 60 times, while now it is only around 16 times. It is clearly unreasonable to compare a market with a severe bubble with a relatively normal market today.</p><p>If we disregard the factor of valuation differences and take 2005, when valuations were similar, as the starting point for comparison, the results are more valuable for reference.</p><p>From 2005 to 2019, my country's nominal GDP grew at an annualized rate of 12.8%, while the Wind All A Index grew at an annualized rate of 14%, the CSI 300 Index at 9.8%, and the CSI 800 Index at 10.2%. The rise in A-shares was basically consistent with the economic fundamentals.</p><p>From the changes in the leading companies by market capitalization in the A-share market, we can also see the changes in the fundamentals of the Chinese economy.</p><p>Before 2000, the leading companies in the A-share market capitalization were long dominated by television manufacturers.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600839\">Sichuan Changhong</a>Occupy. Correspondingly, at that time, it was still an era of shortage economy, and traditional manufacturing industries, represented by home appliances, were in a golden age of rapid growth in performance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb78c7c6bdc785e6d0f8cac1f2beb86c\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>▲ Top 10 A Shares by Total Market Capitalization as at 31 December 1998</p><p>Image source:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300033\">Tonghuashun</a>iFinD</p><p>In 2010, the top A-share market capitalization companies were:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601857\">PetroChina</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01398\">Industrial and Commercial Bank</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01088\">China Shenhua</a>Financial and resource companies—the corresponding economic background is that China is experiencing rapid industrialization and urbanization, with cyclical investment industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, oil and coal, and real estate becoming the \"four pillars\" driving economic growth. The financing models of these industries, which are extremely reliant on credit, have made the scale and importance of banks unprecedentedly strong.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ce4f08ad5758d655496d7b5c1fde131\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"555\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>▲ Top 10 A-shares by total market capitalization as of December 31, 2010</p><p>Image source:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300033\">Tonghuashun</a>iFinD</p><p>As of February 18th, prior to the Japanese round of declines, among the top ten A-share companies by market capitalization, besides banks and insurance companies, the newest entrants were representatives of high-end liquor companies.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">Kweichow Moutai</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">Wuliangye</a>And leaders in the new energy vehicle industry chain<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c4ff8237ff636919572f2c48db5d5bd\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>▲ Top 10 A-shares by total market capitalization as of February 18, 2021</p><p>Image source: iFinD</p><p>As the former leader of the A-share market<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600839\">Sichuan Changhong</a>The current market capitalization is less than half of what it was 20 years ago.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601857\">PetroChina</a>Compared to its historical peak, its market capitalization has dropped by as much as 90%.</p><p>This remains an objective reflection of economic trends.</p><p>First, in the era of surplus economy, traditional manufacturing is caught in a fierce red ocean of homogeneous competition, with extremely meager profits. Channels and traffic have become the most important resources, which has led to the rapid rise of Internet giants. Secondly, under the era of consumption-driven economic growth and continuous consumption upgrading, the stage of wild growth of heavy chemical industry has passed. Consumers are paying more and more attention to the emotional experience and personalization of products, which has given rise to more and more high-end consumer goods companies with distinctive characteristics, reaching the peak of performance and market value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f46d00247aa7d55ac04998858e7f2c\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Another point that has been criticized in the A-share market is the rampant speculation and hype in the market, and the market movements are detached from the reality of value. Value investing seems to have failed to adapt to the A-share market.</p><p>This seems to be true at a certain point in time. Many junk stocks without performance support often see their stock prices soar, while good companies with stable and excellent performance remain lukewarm. However, looking at the long term, the A-share market is actually a very rational and effective market. The long-term trend of listed companies' stock prices is highly correlated with their performance. As the saying goes, short-term trends depend on quality, while long-term trends depend on quality.</p><p>Looking back now, companies that have weathered the test of time, weathered bull and bear cycles, and ultimately become stocks that have grown over a hundredfold are mostly excellent companies that are well-known to investors, including...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">Kweichow Moutai</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">Wuliangye</a>Vanke<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000651\">Gree Electric</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600276\">Hengrui Medicine</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000538\">Yunnan Baiyao</a>etc.</p><p>Kweichow Moutai went public in 2001, and its net profit increased from 328 million yuan that year to 41.2 billion yuan in 2019.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000651\">Gree Electric</a>It went public in 1996, and its net profit increased from 186 million yuan that year to 24.6 billion yuan in 2019. Both well-known companies saw their profits increase by more than 100 times, forming a solid foundation for a long-term surge in stock prices.</p><p>Conversely, popular thematic stocks that once enjoyed great success in the market were driven up to inflated market capitalizations and ultimately became a mess. Take LeEco and Baofeng Technology, which were delisted last year, as examples. They were both heavily speculated on by the market, with their market values reaching 170 billion and 40 billion yuan respectively at their peak. However, when they were ultimately delisted, only 700 million and 100 million yuan remained.</p><p>In the long run, valuation fluctuations caused by speculation have a negligible impact on the market value of listed companies, and performance is always the most important factor affecting market value. Companies that can continuously create value for customers and shareholders in the long term will eventually be recognized by investors, and investors who recognize and stick to such companies will always earn profits that exceed expectations.</p><p>Time is the sole criterion for judging a company's value.<b>Value and rationality have always existed, but they are deeply buried in the ups and downs, and are mastered and practiced in the hands of a few people.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5848b959b41914ede5553657d3bf2808\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Short bull markets and long bear markets are another major source of frustration for investors regarding the current A-share market.</p><p>Since 2000, the average duration of a bull market in the A-share market has been only 20 months, while the average duration of a bear market has been as high as 37 months. The signs of short bull markets and long bear markets are exceptionally prominent and are considered an inescapable fate for the A-share market.</p><p>In contrast, the US stock market has experienced five bull and bear market cycles since 1900, with each bull market lasting an average of 12 years and a bear market lasting only 2 years. Its long bull market and short bear market characteristics are in stark contrast to those of the A-share market.</p><p>This has reinforced people's impression that making money in the A-share market is difficult.</p><p>This phenomenon is due to the different behaviors of both sides during a one-sided bull market. During the three bull market cycles over the past 20 years, the Shanghai Composite Index has achieved compound annualized gains of 112%, 142%, and 70%, respectively, with an average annualized gain of 108%. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has only seen an annualized increase of about 20% during a bull market. A short-term surge in a bull market will inevitably lead to abnormally high valuations. Ultimately, the valuation bubble can only be digested through a long decline. A moderate bull market increase, coupled with the digestion and support of earnings, can naturally continue steadily for a long time.</p><p>A closer look at the differences between the bull and bear cycles of A-shares and US stocks reveals that the root cause lies in the investor structure and the profit structure of listed companies.</p><p>US stock investors are mainly institutional investors, and their profits are mainly derived from weak cyclical sectors such as consumer goods and technology. This market environment makes US stock valuations relatively stable and profits grow steadily, thus providing the foundation for a long-term bull market. However, A-share investors are mainly retail investors, and their profits mainly come from cyclical industries. Valuations and profits naturally lack stability, making it difficult for A-shares to achieve a long-term bull market.</p><p>However, the market environment for A-shares is now converging with that of mature markets such as the US stock market.</p><p>The proportion of investment institutions is increasing. Since 2015, institutional investors' share of free-float market capitalization has grown by more than 2% annually and is showing signs of acceleration.</p><p>In terms of profit structure, with the significant increase in the number of IPOs by consumer and technology companies in recent years, the market capitalization and profit share of weak cyclical industries in the A-share market are also increasing.</p><p>These changes are laying the foundation for a long bull market in A-shares. Even if the market suddenly turns from hot to cold this year, A-shares will still truly usher in a long-term slow bull market, and the fate of short bulls and long bears will eventually be broken.</p><p>However, this does not mean that ordinary investors will definitely make money.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e81473a210179ceea50879ef270d3903\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Cognitive ability is very important for success in life and for profitable investments.</p><p>In the eyes of some people, the stock market is chaotic, with rises and falls occurring completely randomly without any underlying patterns, and stock trading is all about luck. Others believe that the stock market is linear; it seems to keep going up when it goes up and keep going down when it goes down, and there will never be a cycle.</p><p>The value of cognition lies in finding relatively certain patterns in chaos, in understanding the cyclical changes in ups and downs, thereby improving the ability to seize opportunities and avoid risks, and thus increasing the probability of success and profit.</p><p>However, having cognitive abilities is far from enough; what is more important is the unity of knowledge and action. If your actions and practices always go against your rational understanding, even if your understanding is accurate, you may not actually be able to make money in the stock market.</p><p>The most important thing is to overcome the flaws of one's own character and the common weaknesses of human nature. Only by controlling emotions and desires, restraining fantasies of getting rich quick, adhering to long-termism, believing in the power of common sense and time, and believing in what you believe in, can you turn your beliefs into reality.</p><p>Indispensable, of course, is the blessing of national destiny.</p><p>Buffett said, \"My life has largely benefited from the 'womb dividend.' Being fortunate to be born as a white man in the United States, a country with a strong and thriving economy, is the main reason for my investment success.\"</p><p>Chinese stock market investors are actually lucky. Over the past few decades, the Chinese economy has started to catch up from near poverty, providing tremendous opportunities for the capital market. Over the next 30 years, China's greater development amidst unprecedented changes in a century will provide even more and greater opportunities.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb146d9df27844cb787ad545c50986d","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112483646","content_text":"真正的问题，不是A股能不能赚钱，而是你能不能在A股赚钱。最近，全球股市突然转了向。大牛股批量式走熊，股价直线下降甚至腰斩。曾被捧上热搜的明星基金经理纷纷跌落神坛，昨天还是“全世界最好的坤坤”，今天就变成了“菜菜坤”。一些初入市场的股民、基民的心态和投资逻辑，也从去年坚信“A股进入价值投资时代”，到如今陷入了深深的怀疑。从1990年12月上交所成立算，A股诞生30年有余。30年来，市场规模越来越大，投资者越来越多，但这种从信心爆棚到内心崩溃的切换与动荡，却一直如影相随。A股到底能不能赚钱的问题，也被反复提问。七亏二平一赚。即股民中有70%亏损，20%持平，只有10%的人可能盈利。赚钱概率太小，是大多数人对投资股市的基本印象。过去十几年，股市总被拿来与楼市对比，对比的结果多是股市被秒成渣。现实也是如此，过去20年，买房炒楼让绝大多数家庭获得了巨大的财富增值，炒股带来的则更多是难以言说的伤心往事。A股真的如此“渣”吗？事实并非如此。以上证综指为例，1990年以来，涨幅超过33倍，年化涨幅超过13%。与之相比，全国房价同期年化涨幅不到6%。也就是说，A股的长期回报率大大跑赢了房地产。不止房地产，跟其他主要投资方式比，A股的的长期收益也是最高的。比如，10年期国债代表的债市年化收益率不到4%，而以CRB指数衡量的大宗商品年化涨幅不到3%。以上证综指涨幅来比较，A股的真实涨幅也被低估了。海通证券曾以两种方法计算过上交所开市到2017年，更接近真实情况的A股收益率。其两种方法的计算结果，都大大超过14%的年化涨幅。一种方法是，每年年初买入等额所有A股，投资收益为576倍，27年的年化涨幅为28.0%；另一种方法是，每年年初买入等量所有A股，投资收益为256倍，年化涨幅为24.0%。按这种“傻瓜”的方法投资A股，其年化收益率甚至超过了巴菲特。最近30年，股神巴菲特的年化收益率也不过20%出头。A股竟然隐藏着如此大的赚钱效益，为什么普通股民感受不到？为什么大多数投资者依然亏损，甚至总是亏损？答案残酷而真实：不是股市能不能赚钱，而是你能不能赚钱。A股的年化收益率是所有大类投资品种中最高的，但其波动率也远高于其他投资品种。30年来，上证综指年度最大涨幅是1992年的166%，最大跌幅是2008年的65%，大多数年份，A股的收益率水平，都远远偏离年化收益率。巨大波动中，踏错一波节奏的操作，就可能让本来赚钱的投资变成巨大亏损，更何况很多投资者追涨杀跌，来回踏错。A股的巨大波动率，一方面来自中国经济和上市公司结构。过去很长一段时间，中国经济增长主要靠投资拉动，反映在股市，就是上市公司的利润绝大部分来自于银行、地产以及资源等周期类行业。这部分公司利润随着经济周期呈现明显的上下波动，从而在盈利端造成了A股的高波动性。另一方面，就是A股的投资者结构。按自由流通市值计算，2020年一季度，A股的机构投资占比为30.3%（公募10.8%、外资8%、保险类资金7.1%、私募4.4%），自然人和法人占比25.1%，散户持股市值占比为38.3%。散户仍然是市场最大的持仓群体。散户的非理性交易行为，最容易使市场涨的时候容易涨过头，跌的时候容易跌过头，进而在盈利水平之外加剧A股的波动。以最近一轮牛熊转换来看，2013年6月到2015年6月的牛市行情中，上市公司盈利增速只有10%左右，但上证综指从1849点上涨到5178点，PE从8倍上升到21倍，上涨了2.5倍。2015年6月到2019年1月的熊市行情中，上证综指从5178点下跌到2440点，其中PE从21倍降到11倍，但绝大部分公司业绩并没大幅下降。这些波动，几乎都是情绪驱动所致，且很大程度上是由散户造成，最终也深深伤害了散户。一方面，大部分散户没有估值概念和周期思维，更多的是根据市场的赚钱效应从众跟风。在牛市最疯狂、估值泡沫到达历史高点时蜂拥而入，在熊市最低迷、估值回到历史低位时割肉出局。如前所述，一波或几波高买低卖，便会导致巨大亏损，甚至血本无归。另一方面，巨大波动带来的巨大刺激感及股市交易操作的便利性，使大部分散户陷入追求暴富、短线频繁交易的泥潭。人们对事物的长期判断一定超过短期判断，你对某家公司未来几年业绩涨跌判断的准确性，大概率高于你对它在未来几天股价涨跌的判断。相信的是公司的长期价值，买卖的却是短期价值，这导致即便很多聪明的投资者，最终也因为频繁的短期做错，陷入“为什么我那么聪明但却总是亏损”的魔咒。同样的逻辑放在楼市，正是楼市的波动相对较小，且交易程序非常复杂，交易成本高企，才让普通老百姓也能够充分享受其增值收益。情绪波动让“市场先生”经常失灵，股价经常大幅偏离合理价值，是对高买低卖者的致命伤害，但却是低吸高抛者的黄金机遇。比如，上证估值曾经在2014年初下探至历史最低点，PE（TTM）只有8倍左右，彼时茅台的PE（TTM）甚至不到9倍，不到现在的20%。现在回头看，让众人恐慌、骂娘的时点，往往是投资布局的好时机。也正是这种偏离公司价值的巨大波动，造就了很多通过短线高抛低吸而暴富的牛散。一些游资大佬，从几万元起家做到了亿万身家，其财富积累速度，远超巴菲特等来自成熟市场的投资大师。巨大波动性带来的择时机会，也创造过收益神话，典型如华夏基金前著名基金经理王亚伟。从2005年底，王亚伟接手主理华夏精选大盘开始，在6年多时间里，净值增长了11倍。还有一类投资人，不理会市场波动，通过坚定的长期持股，和优秀公司共同成长，最终获得数十亿财富回报，比如万科的刘元生、海康威视的龚虹嘉、恒瑞医药的岑均达。很长时间里，A股都被认为和中国经济走势背道而驰，不能充当经济发展的晴雨表。一个常用的证据是，2007年以来中国GDP增长了3倍以上，但是上证指数离2007年10月创下的6124点还相差甚远。这种观点貌似有理，其实似是而非。最根本的错误，在于时点选择。2007年上证创下6124点，已是牛市最疯狂的时候，PE（TTM）达到了60倍以上，而目前只有16倍左右。拿泡沫严重的市场和如今相对正常的市场进行比较，显然是不合理的。如果抛开估值差异的因素，以估值相近的2005年作为比较的起点，结果更有参考价值。2005-2019年的15年间，我国名义GDP年化增速为12.8%，同期万得全A的年化涨幅为14%，沪深300为9.8%，中证800为10.2%，A股涨幅跟经济基本面基本一致。从A股市值领先公司的变迁，我们也能看到中国经济基本面的变化。2000年之前，A股市值龙头曾长期被生产电视机的四川长虹占据。与之对应的是，当时还处于短缺经济时代，以家电为代表的传统制造业，正处于业绩高速成长的高光时代。▲1998年12月31日A股总市值前10图源：同花顺iFinD2010年，A股市值排名靠前的是中国石油、工商银行和中国神华等金融和资源类公司——对应的经济背景是，中国迎来工业化和城镇化高速推进，钢铁、有色、石油煤炭、地产等周期性投资行业成为拉动经济增长的“四大金刚”，而这些行业极度依赖信贷的融资模式，则使银行的规模和重要性变得空前强大。▲2010年12月31日A股总市值前10图源：同花顺iFinD截至2月18日本轮下跌前，A股前十大市值公司中，除了银行和保险之外，新上榜的是高端白酒的代表——贵州茅台和五粮液，以及新能源汽车产业链龙头宁德时代。▲2021年2月18日A股总市值前10图源：同花顺iFinD作为曾经的A股老大，四川长虹目前的市值已经不到20年前的一半，中国石油市值与历史最高峰相比，更是下降了90%之多。这依然是经济趋势的客观反映。一是在过剩经济时代，传统制造业陷入同质竞争的惨烈红海，利润极其微薄，渠道和流量成为最重要的资源，使互联网巨头迅速崛起；二是在消费驱动经济增长和消费持续升级的时代潮流下，重化工业的野蛮生长阶段已经过去，消费者越发重视产品的情感体验和个性化，由此催生出越来越多有鲜明特色的高端消费品企业，走向业绩和市值的巅峰。A股被吐槽的另一个点，市场投机炒作盛行，行情都是脱离价值实际，价值投资在A股似乎水土不服。这在单独的某个时间看，似乎是对的，很多没有业绩支撑的垃圾题材股经常股价暴涨，而业绩稳定优异的好公司反而不温不火。但把时间拉长来看，A股其实是非常理性和有效的市场，上市公司股价的长期走势，与其业绩高度相关，所谓短期靠势，长期靠质。如今再看，历经时间洗礼，穿越牛熊周期，最终成为百倍以上大牛股的公司，基本都是投资者耳熟能详的优秀公司，包括贵州茅台、五粮液、万科、格力电器、恒瑞医药、云南白药等。贵州茅台2001年上市，净利润从当年的3.28亿增长到2019年的412亿；格力电器1996年上市，净利润从当年的1.86亿，增长到2019年的246亿。两家著名公司利润增幅都超过100倍，成为股价长期大涨的坚实基础。与之相反，曾经在市场上风光一时的热门题材股，被炒到虚高的市值，最终都是一地鸡毛。以去年退市的乐视网和暴风科技为例，都曾被市场爆炒过，市值最高时分别达到过1700亿和400亿，而最终退市时，不过只剩下了7亿和1亿。长期来看，炒作带来的估值波动，对上市公司市值的影响微乎其微，业绩始终是影响市值的最重要因素。能够长期持续为客户和股东创造价值的公司，终究会受到投资者的认可，认可并坚持这类公司的投资者，也总能赚到超出预期的利润。时间是检验企业价值的唯一标准，价值和理性，其实一直都在，只不过它被深深地埋藏在涨涨跌跌里，被掌握和实践在少数人手中。牛短熊长，是投资者对当前A股的另一大无奈。2000年以来，A股牛市平均持续时间只有20个月，熊市平均持续时间却高达37个月，牛短熊长的迹象异常突出，并被认为是A股难以摆脱的宿命。反观美股市场，从1900以来道指经历了5轮牛熊转换，每轮牛市的平均持续时间高达12年，熊市的持续时间只有2年，其牛长熊短的特征和A股形成了鲜明对比。这加深了人们对A股赚钱难的印象。导致这一现象的，是双方在单边牛市时的不同表现。在近20年的三轮牛市周期中，上证综指复合年化涨幅分别为112%、142%和70%，平均年化涨幅高达108%。与之对应，美股道指在牛市的年化涨幅只有20%左右。牛市短期暴涨，必然造成估值畸高，最终只能通过漫长的下跌来消化估值泡沫，牛市涨幅温和，再加业绩消化与支撑，自然可以细水长流。深究A股和美股牛熊周期的差异，根源在于投资者结构和上市公司盈利结构。美股投资者以机构为主，利润来源以消费和科技等弱周期行业为主，这种市场环境使美股估值相对稳定、利润稳定增长，从而具备长牛的基础。而A股投资者以散户为主，利润来源以强周期行业为主，估值和利润自然缺乏稳定性，使A股也难以走出长牛行情。但现在，A股的市场环境，已在向美股等成熟市场靠拢。投资机构占比越来越高。2015年以来，机构投资者在自由流通市值中的占比每年增长超过2%并且有加速迹象。盈利结构中，随着近年来消费和科技公司IPO数量的大幅增长，A股中弱周期行业的市值和利润占比也越来越高。这些变化，正在为A股的长牛行情奠定基础，即便今年以来市场突然由热转寒，A股仍将真正迎来长期慢牛行情，牛短熊长的宿命终将被打破。但这并不意味着，普通投资者就一定能赚到钱。人生要成功，投资要获利，认知能力很重要。在一些人眼中，股市是混沌的，涨跌完全是随机产生，背后没有任何规律可循，炒股就是碰运气；在另一些人看来，股市是线性的，涨的时候似乎一直会涨，跌的时候似乎一直会跌，永远不会有周期的循环。认知的价值，在于找到混沌中相对确定的规律，在于理解起伏中的周期更替，从而提升把握机会和规避风险的能力，进而提高成功和获利的概率。但是有认知能力是远远不够的，更重要的是知行合一。如果行动与实践中，总是与自己的理性认知背道而驰，就算认知得很准，也不一定真正能在股市赚钱。最重要的是，克服自身性格的缺陷和人性共同的弱点。只有控制情绪和欲望，克制暴富的幻想，坚持长期主义，相信常识和时间的力量，相信自己所相信的，才能把相信变成现实。不可或缺的，当然还有国运的恩泽。巴菲特说，“我的人生，很大程度上受益于‘子宫红利’。有幸作为白人出生在国力和经济蒸蒸日上的美国，是我投资成功的主要原因。”中国股民其实也是幸运的，过去几十年，中国经济从几乎一穷二白开始追赶，给资本市场提供了巨大的机会。未来30年，中国在百年未有之大变局的更大发展，则会提供更多最大的机会。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2079,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":398478424,"gmtCreate":1606954193768,"gmtModify":1704968019904,"author":{"id":"3517430212327987","authorId":"3517430212327987","name":"鉴势","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8a0f523fe4c3104a416bb897458de5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3517430212327987","idStr":"3517430212327987"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ᥬ?᭄","listText":"ᥬ?᭄","text":"ᥬ?᭄","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/398478424","repostId":"1140296620","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140296620","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1606949340,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140296620?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2020-12-03 06:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Snowflake's first financial report since its IPO showed a widening year-on-year loss, with the stock price plummeting by more than 8% at one point in after-hours trading.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140296620","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"12月2日，美国云数据仓库公司Snowflake今日公布了该公司的2021财年第三季度财报，这也是该公司自9月IPO（首次公开招股）上市以来公布的首份财报。报告显示，Snowflake第三季度总营收为","content":"<p>On December 2nd, the US cloud data warehouse company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a>The company released its financial results for the third quarter of fiscal year 2021 today, which is its first financial report since its IPO in September. The report shows that Snowflake's total revenue in the third quarter was $159.6 million, a 119% increase compared to $73 million in the same period last year; The company reported a net loss of $168.9 million in the third quarter, a widening from a net loss of $88.1 million in the same period last year. The company reported a loss of $1.01 per share in the third quarter, compared to market expectations of a loss of $0.38.</p><p>Following the release of the earnings report, Snowflake's stock price plummeted by more than 8% in after-hours trading, but as of press time, the decline had narrowed to less than 2%, at $282.9.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b64764060dda293b159a9446d426c83e\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"2576\"></p><p>Financial reports show that Snowflake reported a net loss of $1.01 per share in the third fiscal quarter of 2021, compared to a loss of $1.92 per share in the same period of 2019, while analysts had expected a loss of $0.26 per share.</p><p>Under GAAP, the product operating loss was $169.5 million, and the non-GAAP product operating loss was $48.1 million. Net cash used in operating activities was $19.8 million.</p><p>Quarterly revenue was $159.6 million, exceeding market expectations of $147.1 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 119%. Among them, product revenue in the third quarter was $149 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 115%.</p><p>In the four quarters of fiscal year 2020 (ending at the end of January this year), total quarterly revenue was $44 million, $60 million, $73 million and $88 million respectively, representing a growth rate of over 20% for the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91360e2c288936e4ae84f504ca72f06c\" tg-width=\"1168\" tg-height=\"371\"></p><p>In terms of key user metrics, 65 customers contributed more than $1 million in product revenue in the past 12 months, bringing the total number of customers to 3,554, a 14% increase from 3,117 at the end of the second quarter of fiscal year 2021. The net revenue retention rate increased from a record-breaking 158% to 162%.</p><p>The company also expects product revenue of $162 million to $167 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2021, and product revenue of $538 million to $543 million in fiscal year 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a07bed986f78d5bf7097b0f8e233166b\" tg-width=\"1177\" tg-height=\"419\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Snowflake's first financial report since its IPO showed a widening year-on-year loss, with the stock price plummeting by more than 8% at one point in after-hours trading.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSnowflake's first financial report since its IPO showed a widening year-on-year loss, with the stock price plummeting by more than 8% at one point in after-hours trading.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2020-12-03 06:49</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On December 2nd, the US cloud data warehouse company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a>The company released its financial results for the third quarter of fiscal year 2021 today, which is its first financial report since its IPO in September. The report shows that Snowflake's total revenue in the third quarter was $159.6 million, a 119% increase compared to $73 million in the same period last year; The company reported a net loss of $168.9 million in the third quarter, a widening from a net loss of $88.1 million in the same period last year. The company reported a loss of $1.01 per share in the third quarter, compared to market expectations of a loss of $0.38.</p><p>Following the release of the earnings report, Snowflake's stock price plummeted by more than 8% in after-hours trading, but as of press time, the decline had narrowed to less than 2%, at $282.9.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b64764060dda293b159a9446d426c83e\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"2576\"></p><p>Financial reports show that Snowflake reported a net loss of $1.01 per share in the third fiscal quarter of 2021, compared to a loss of $1.92 per share in the same period of 2019, while analysts had expected a loss of $0.26 per share.</p><p>Under GAAP, the product operating loss was $169.5 million, and the non-GAAP product operating loss was $48.1 million. Net cash used in operating activities was $19.8 million.</p><p>Quarterly revenue was $159.6 million, exceeding market expectations of $147.1 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 119%. Among them, product revenue in the third quarter was $149 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 115%.</p><p>In the four quarters of fiscal year 2020 (ending at the end of January this year), total quarterly revenue was $44 million, $60 million, $73 million and $88 million respectively, representing a growth rate of over 20% for the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91360e2c288936e4ae84f504ca72f06c\" tg-width=\"1168\" tg-height=\"371\"></p><p>In terms of key user metrics, 65 customers contributed more than $1 million in product revenue in the past 12 months, bringing the total number of customers to 3,554, a 14% increase from 3,117 at the end of the second quarter of fiscal year 2021. The net revenue retention rate increased from a record-breaking 158% to 162%.</p><p>The company also expects product revenue of $162 million to $167 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2021, and product revenue of $538 million to $543 million in fiscal year 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a07bed986f78d5bf7097b0f8e233166b\" tg-width=\"1177\" tg-height=\"419\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7526497860e1228a2dc0702558d494fd","relate_stocks":{"SNOW":"Snowflake"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140296620","content_text":"12月2日，美国云数据仓库公司Snowflake今日公布了该公司的2021财年第三季度财报，这也是该公司自9月IPO（首次公开招股）上市以来公布的首份财报。报告显示，Snowflake第三季度总营收为1.596亿美元，与去年同期的7300万美元相比增长119%；第三季度净亏损为1.689亿美元，与去年同期的净亏损8810万美元相比有所扩大；第三季度每股亏损1.01美元，市场预期亏损0.38美元。财报发布后，Snowflake盘后股价一度大跌超8%，截止发稿，跌幅缩窄至不足2%，报282.9美元。财报显示，在Snowflake公司的2021财年第三财季，每股净亏损1.01美元，2019年同期为每股亏损1.92美元，分析师预计为每股亏损0.26美元。GAAP项下，产品运营亏损为1.695亿美元，非GAAP的产品运营亏损为4810万美元。经营活动所用现金净额为1980万美元。季度营收1.596亿美元，高于市场预期的1.471亿美元，同比增119%，其中，三季度产品营收1.49亿美元，同比增115%。在2020财年的四个季度中（截至今年1月底），季度总收入分别为4400万美元、6000万美元、7300万美元和8800万美元，代表年内增长速度均维持在20%以上。在关键的用户指标方面，过去12个月贡献产品收入超100万美元的客户有65名，客户总数为3554名，较2021财年二季度末的3117名增长14%，净收入留存率从破纪录的158%增至162%。公司还预计2021财年四季度产品营收为1.62亿至1.67亿美元，预计2021财年产品营收5.38亿至5.43亿美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SNOW":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2339,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}