To The Moon

After the recent rebound, the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has returned to levels similar to those seen just before Trump won the U.S. election last November. In effect, after a "Trump rally" that priced in the positives—such as deregulation and tax cuts—and the recent pullback that began to price in risks like tariffs, deficit reduction, immigration restrictions, and broader policy uncertainty, the market has round-tripped to where it started.To be honest, the potential announcement of tariffs on April 2nd. Intuitively, if the market continues to rally leading into April 2, then the reaction will likely depend on whether the tariff measures exceed or fall short of expectations. But if the market pulls back again before that date, the tariff announcement m

( $PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ , HOLD) - Slowing Growth and Rising Investments Create Near-Term Uncertainty; Downgrading to HOLD We are downgrading PDD to HOLD but maintaining our price target of $130 (unchanged) following below-consensus 4Q revenue and profit performance. 4Q revenue grew 24% y/y, decelerating from 44% in 3Q, and was 2%/3% below Tiger/Street.Revenue missed. By segment, online marketing services revenue increased 17% y/y, compared to 24% in 3Q, marking a slowdown relative to domestic peers. This segment came in 1% above Tiger/Street. Transaction services revenue grew 33% year-over-year, a sharp deceleration from 72% in the previous quarter, and was 5% below Tiger and 7% below the Street, likely due to tougher comp for Temu and slowi

$TENCENT(00700)$ -HK, BUY) - Solid 4Q Results Driven by Robust Games and Ads; Momentum Set to Continue in 2025; Maintain BUY and Increase PT to HK$590We maintain our BUY rating and increase our price target to HK$590 (previously HK$450) after Tencent reported largely in-line 4Q24 results, with revenue and profitability slightly ahead consensus. Total revenue grew 11% y/y to RMB172.4B, exceeding consensus by 3%, primarily driven by stronger-than-expected VAS and ad segments.Domestic game revenue accelerated to +23% y/y in 4Q24 (vs. +14% y/y in 3Q24), driven by robust performance from key evergreen titles including Honour of Kings, Peacekeeper Elite, and VALORANT, along with solid contributions from new launches like DnF Mobile and Delta Force. Int

Wednesday's FOMC meeting largely aligned with our expectations from yesterday. Wednesday Focus: FOMC Would be Neutral But Equity Remain ExpensiveThe dot plot essentially built upon the December projections while incorporating recent macroeconomic trends, and Powell’s key message was to "continue monitoring policy developments." With this risk event now settled, the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ retreated to 20, helping to lift the market.Let’s see the Wallstreet’s views on Fed’s Dovish Message first:$JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ : Rate unchanged, future moves depend on next three months.$Goldman Sachs(GS)$

1. Market Commentary on Wednesday’s FOMCAfter two consecutive days of rebound, the market resumed its decline today. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ gained a total of 2.78% over Friday and Monday, slightly above the historical average rebound of +2.45% following a 10% correction, making it a relatively normal occurrence (see last Thursday Commentary).The most important macro event this week is Wendesday’s FOMC meeting. Based on interest rate futures pricing, the probability of a rate cut tomorrow is only 1%. We believe this pricing is reasonable—economic weakness is not yet evident enough, and uncertainty surrounding the inflationary impact of tariff policies gives the Fed no reason to cut rates at this moment. Therefore, the market's focus will be on the

$Li Auto(LI)$ (LI, BUY) - Mixed 4Q; Cautious 1Q/2025 Outlook Amid Pricing Pressure; Maintain BUY and $30 PTWe maintain our BUY rating and $30 price target following Li Auto's mixed 4Q24 results, which beat Tiger and consensus on profitability, but cautious 1Q25 outlook reflects ongoing ASP pressure and shifting product mix.4Q revenue 2%/1% below Tiger/Street. Li Auto delivered 158,696 vehicles (+20% y/y, +4% q/q), 3% below Tiger, 2% below consensus, but still within guidance range (160,000-170,000 units). ASP of RMB 269K was 1% above Tiger and consensus, showing resilience despite competitive pressure. Total revenue of RMB 44.3B, 2% below Tiger and 1% below consensus, driven by slight delivery shortfall. Vehicle sales of RMB 42.6B, 2% below Tiger, 1

By Bo Pei，US Tiger ResearchI didn’t write my Market Commentary for the first three days of this week—partly because I felt the timing wasn’t right yet (the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ hadn’t dropped 10%) and partly because I was taking time to think and analyze how this market downturn might play out.To get straight to the point: in the short term, I believe this could be a good opportunity to buy the dip in U.S. equities, as the market is likely to see a rebound. However, the medium-term outlook (over the next few months) remains concerning.Short-Term OutlookHere’s why I think a short-term rebound is likely. First, let’s look at historical probabilities.The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has now declined 10% from its recen

$JD.com(JD)$ (JD, BUY) - Beat-and-Raise Quarter Fueled by Trade-Ins and Demand Recovery; Strong Momentum Expected to Continue in 1H; Maintain BUY and Raise PT to $50 We are maintaining our BUY rating and increasing PT to $50 (was $45) after JD reported beat-across-the-board 4Q results, and as we believe the strong momentum will likely sustain in the 1H. JD total revenue grew 13% y/y in 4Q (accelerating 8pts from 3Q), with JDR revenue up 15% y/y (vs. +6% y/y in 3Q). Moreover, 4Q gross profit grew 22% y/y, accelerating 6pts from 3Q, and was 9pts faster than revenue growth, with gross margin up 110bps y/y (vs. +165bps in 3Q), again, due to supply chain efficiency improvement and revenue mix shift to higher margin business lines. 3P growth continu

For Q4 2024, 75% of $S&P 500(.SPX)$ companies beat EPS estimates and 63% exceeded revenue expectations.97% of the S&P 500 companies have reported results, with earnings exceeding expectations by 7.5%, although this is below the 5-year average of 8.5%.The blended earnings growth rate for Q4 2024 is 18.2%, marking the highest year-over-year earnings growth rate since Q4 2021.Overall, the blended revenue growth rate for Q4 is 5.3%, with sectors like Financials and Health Care contributing positively to this growth. Industrials had the largest revenue decline at -2.7%.Positive surprises were particularly noticeable in Financials (+12.6%), Information Technology (+7.5%), and Consumer Discretionary (+13.2%).The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the

I was on vacation last week, so here’s a brief analysis of key events and their impact on capital markets.Last week, the market continued its downward trend, with a sharp rebound late on Friday likely driven by month-end fund rebalancing and a gamma squeeze triggered by the expiration of a large volume of options and the rebalancing. This does not indicate a shift in market sentiment. Therefore, today's decline should not be too surprising. However, note that the S&P 500 is only down about 4% from its peak. The reason why investor sentiment feels particularly bearish is that previously popular stocks, such as $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ , $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ , and some speculative small caps, have experienced sig