Yardeni Research: US Stocks Could End This Year 14% Higher
Ed Yardeni, President and Chief Investment Strategist of Yardeni ResearchThe $S&P 500(.SPX)$ could rally 14% by the end of the year, The Yardeni Research president Ed Yardeni said. Yardeni Research, Inc. is a sell-side consultancy providing a wide range of global investment and business strategy services.US stocks could rally 14% by the end of the year, as the recent banking turmoil will likely to lead to the Fed pausing its rate-hiking campaign, according to the Ed Yardeni.Yardeni expects measures taken by the US central bank and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, will keep the fallout in check.Like what Capital_Insights shared yesterday: global central banks shows clear a
The Liquidity Crisis Has Gone? CITIC Securities: Fed Bombs May Hide in August
In March, we witnessed a bank from the sale of its assets to bankruptcy only takes 48 hours, and we also saw that it takes only one weekend for the risk to spread from the United States to Europe. A globally systemically important bank like $Credit Suisse Group AG(CS)$ has been severely impacted, and the liquidity position is likely to escalate to a credit crisis.After these accidents, global central banks shows clear attitude: risk prevention is the highest priority!The U.S. Treasury Department, the Fed, the Swiss National Bank, and the European Central Bank have all stated that they can save, must save, and to save as soon as possible.It is clear that the cost of rescuing the bank in trouble is indeed low, otherwise the serial bank runs will cause
The Bank Crisis Week 3: Not Out of The Woods Yet & Whither First Republic?
By Sean RyanNot Out of The Woods Quite YetThe banking system seems to be stabilizing, at least for now, but we are concerned that liquidity problems will before long be supplanted by credit problems. In this report we offer thoughts on what to watch, and on energy finance as just one of many, as-yet little examined, potential long-term effects of this crisis.Deutsche Bank isn’t Credit Suisse.Deutsche Bank renewed contagion fears on Friday, as CDS spreads widened sharply and the stock dropped by 10%. On one hand, there are some key differences, starting with the fact that Deutsche Bank is decently profitable, in aggregate as well as in each of its key components. The bank boasts a CET1 ratio of 13.4% and a Liquidity Coverage Ratio of 135%, although any solace to be found there is mitig
J.P. Morgan's Marko Kolanovic: Fed More Likely to Pause
J.P. Morgan's Marko Kolanovic (JPMorgan'schief global markets strategist, was one of the biggest bulls on Wall Street last year):Q1 high point for marketsFed more likely to pause, pivot only if recessionEnd of PMI reboundSell into ralliesYield curve recession signal likely proven rightJPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic said in a note Monday that the possibility of a Minsky moment in markets and geopolitics has increased."The bailout of several U.S. banks did not manage to calm markets, which consumed another large bank in Europe," he noted. "In a Trichet-like moment, the ECB increased rates by 50bps."JPMorgan's chief global markets strategist, was one of the biggest bulls on Wall Street last year.Kolanovic acknowledged that the Fed is facing a difficult task on Wednesday but is likely already
Why $17 Billion in Credit Suisse ‘CoCos’ Got Wiped Out in UBS Takeover
Analysis by Hannah Benjamin-Cook and Tasos Vossos | BloombergSource: Washington postThey’re called contingent convertible bonds, or CoCos — and are often described as high-yield investments with a hand grenade attached. The takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS Group AG included pulling the pin on $17 billion of CoCos, which are also known as Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds. This is in keeping with the idea behind the birth of CoCos in the wake of the European debt crisis. CoCos are the lowest rung of bank debt, meaning that while they produce juicy returns in good times, they’re designed to be among the first to feel pain if a bank’s troubles get bad enough. The vaporizing of Credit Suisse’s CoCo debt will strengthen the balance sheet of the newly combined bank — but could spell disaster fo
Banking Crisis is Over? Impact to Economy & Central Banks
On Thursday, 11 U.S. banks led by $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ , $Bank of America(BAC)$ , and $Citigroup(C)$ banded together to inject $30 billion in uninsured deposits into stumbling lender $First Republic Bank(FRC)$ .Fears of a global banking crisis have eased following the rollout of multi-billion-dollar lifelines for troubled lenders in Europe and the United States. Stocks rose in China, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Australia, the Philippines and Hong Kong on Friday: China’s blue-chip index gained 0.8%, while
Citi Research: The Funding, Liquidity, Valueation, Risks of Credit Suisse
In a jittery market, We discuss the funding and liquidity profile of$Credit Suisse Group AG(CS)$ in detail below.Funding ProfileAs at end-2022 Credit Suisse had SFr531bn liabilities and equities, split SFr234bn deposits (SFr68bn time, SFr122bn demand, SFr44bn savings), SFr157bn long-term debt, SFr45bn equity, SFr23bn short-term borrowings (incl. CD, CP, structured notes <1 year), and SFr23bn repurchase agreements (of which SFr21bn is subject to enforceable master netting agreements).Almost all of the deposits have contractual maturity <1 year (as one would expect) and the proportion of deposit balances that are not covered by national deposit guarantee schemes (e.g. Swiss guarantee scheme of up to SFr100k) is not disclosed, but
How Global Banks & Top Institutions Responded to the Banking Crisis?
Following the $SVB Financial Group(SIVB)$ crisis, $Credit Suisse Group AG(CS)$ also experienced financial failure. Will a financial crisis ensue? What measures are global banks taking and how are they responding to this banking crisis?This article compiles the attitudes and response policies of Europe, Canada, and Japan towards this crisis, as well as the attitudes and responses of institutions such as JP Morgan, Bridgewater, and ARKK...Recommend to read: Citi Research: The funding, Liquidity, Valueation, Risks of Credit SuisseSwiss regulator says it will provide liquidity to Credit Sui
After SIVB, SBNY, Who is Next, ZION, TFC, FRC, KEY or $RF?
$SVB Financial Group(SIVB)$ was rescued by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) on Friday, with a new bank set up to hold and guarantee deposits up to US$250,000 held at the bank.On Sunday, crypto bank $Signature Bank(SBNY)$ was also closed down due to what was said by the regulator to be a risk of systemic bank failure.All Signature's depositors will be "made whole", "As with the resolution of Silicon Valley Bank, no losses will be borne by the taxpayer,” said by the FDIC.$SVB Financial Group(SIVB)$ is said to have deposits/assets of anywhere between US$120bn and US$200bn. $Sign